They’re richer than you think

DOUG By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

Another quarter, another set of mind-blowing results from our Canadian banks.

Bolstered by strength in their wealth management and capital markets divisions as well as continued steady performance from personal banking and mortgage lending, the Big 6 banks racked up a combined profit of more than $10.7 billion in fiscal Q1.

The profit level, of course, is staggering. To put it in perspective, according to Deloitte, the core marijuana industry in Canada, which has certainly dominated investor imaginations over the past several years, is estimated at only $8.7 billion. In other words, Canadian banks make more in three months than the entire value of the marijuana market. (And one clear problem with pot stocks is that they aren’t making any money yet—banks certainly are.)

Further reflecting the health of the Canadian banking sector, four of the Big 6 raised dividends in the quarter by an average of more than 5% and the banks have been quite reliably raising dividends twice a year for many years. So, not only do the Canadian banks now provide an average yield of nearly 4%, almost twice that of a Government of Canada 5-year bond, but they’ve been growing those dividends annually by almost 8% over the past five years. Talk about a nice hedge against inflation.

For the entire fiscal year, consensus is expecting combined net income of a staggering $44.7 billion, a potential y-o-y increase of more than 7%. So, we’re now perhaps only a year or two away from Canadian banks crossing the $50 billion mark in terms of overall annual profits, which would be a remarkable milestone.

Valuations, while not table-pounding, are still reasonable with the banks trading in line with their longer-term averages on both a price-to-earnings and price-to-book basis.

So, naturally, we continue to like the Canadian banks and they remain a key part of our client portfolios. On average, the Canadian banks have returned 14% annually (including dividends) over the past five years, and over the past 20 years have still provided a double-digit annual total return of more than 10%. Compare this to global banks, which overall have returned only 3.5% annually over the past 20 years. Needless to say, Canadian banks have historically been great investments.

Naturally, the Canadian banking sector is not perfect. High consumer debt levels and rising interest rates, which could negatively impact loan demand, are a few of our concerns. However, this is capital-market investing and no story is ever perfect. There is risk, but we think that on balance the current environment still favours Canadian banks.

I also won’t argue that Canadian banks are a safe store of value during severe market sell-offs. Canadian banks are not grocery stores or utilities. During 2008, Canadian banks collapsed more than 31%. However, global banks fell significantly more, down more than 54% that year. In fact, as a reflection of their more prudent risk management, Canadian banks have been significantly less volatile over the long term than global banks:

Canadian Banks Far Less Volatile than Global Banks

Source: Bloomberg. Chart measures 6-month rolling standard deviation of the S&P/TSX Composite Banks Index and the MSCI World Bank Index. Standard deviation measures the amount of variation within a particular index or security. In other words, it measures risk.

They may charge you 19% on your credit card and have overzealous tellers pushing you products you don’t want—just read the recent report from the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada, which details the banks’ aggressive sales practices—but, in the end, you can’t deny their impressive ability to create wealth for investors.

As the saying goes, if you can’t beat `em, join `em.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

106 comments ↓

#1 TRUMP on 03.24.18 at 2:45 pm

NO invest class has gone up in a straight line forever..

That is except for the Canadian Banks.

You know what that means???

WATCHOUT!!!!

#2 thanks Doug on 03.24.18 at 2:47 pm

is there an inexpensive etf for the Cdn banks? or better to just buy the big 6?

#3 FreeBird on 03.24.18 at 2:51 pm

“…if you can’t beat `em, join `em.”

Agreed.

And if you go to TNL/[email protected] they can both meet they’re sales quota and sell shares in their bank. Kidding. Seriously.

#4 you're kidding, right? on 03.24.18 at 2:51 pm

During 2008, Canadian banks collapsed more than 31%.

???

Canadian banks fell 55-65% during the 2008/9 crisis.

CIBC falling 65% from it’s peak
BMO fell 66%
TD fell 58%
RY fell 61%
BNS down 55%

CIBC and BMO were technically insolvent at the height of the crisis and only survived because of central bank intervention and CMHC buying garbage ABCP from them to keep them afloat.

#5 Penny Henny on 03.24.18 at 3:12 pm

Oh VREU where are you?

#6 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.24.18 at 3:12 pm

Great post. You should also mention that the Big Six are “ protected and insured “ by the Canadian government. They will not get eaten by the big sharks down south and risky mortgages are covered by CMHC. They are money machines with a great track record and are pretty cheap to buy right now. They will do well in a rising interest rate environment.

#7 When Will They Raise Rates? on 03.24.18 at 3:25 pm

Worst advice ever.

Canadian banks got a $114 Billion bailout during the last recession. Fact.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/business/banks-got-114b-from-governments-during-recession-1.1145997

And that was absent a Canadian RE crash.

Now, as Canadian RE is about to implode and take the entire economy with it, banks are gonna need a bigger bailout methinks.

I’ll pass on bank stocks, but there may be some good shorting opportunities. Lol

#8 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.24.18 at 3:38 pm

#4 you’re kidding, right? on 03.24.18 at 2:51 pm
During 2008, Canadian banks collapsed more than 31%.

???

Canadian banks fell 55-65% during the 2008/9 crisis.

CIBC falling 65% from it’s peak
BMO fell 66%
TD fell 58%
RY fell 61%
BNS down 55%

CIBC and BMO were technically insolvent at the height of the crisis and only survived because of central bank intervention and CMHC buying garbage ABCP from them to keep them afloat.
………………..

They were protected and insured. Share price came right back up to new highs and they never missed a dividend payment. Back up the truck……….

#9 Doug Rowat on 03.24.18 at 3:49 pm

#4 you’re kidding, right? on 03.24.18 at 2:51 pm

During 2008, Canadian banks collapsed more than 31%.

???

Canadian banks fell 55-65% during the 2008/9 crisis.

Are you correcting me? You actually quote my date range and then cite performance over a completely different set of dates. Further, I began by flatly stating that they’re not always a safe store of value.

Needless to say, I could also cherry pick some favourable date ranges where banks absolutely shot the lights out.

–Doug

#10 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 03.24.18 at 3:53 pm

THE CLASH OF EMPIRES

The world’s economic output is somewhere in the range of $75-trillion USD.

The recently unveiled trade war between China and the US is worth about $53-billion US: that’s $50B by the US and $3B by China.

That’s so far.

Where to from here?

With all the MSM-driven cultural insanity abroad in the US this weekend, God only knows the firmness of President Trump’s grip on the tiller of state.

Still with trade disputes, word is that Canada’s “holiday” from steel/aluminum tariffs imposed by DC is more tenuous than first thought.

Therefore it’s geopolitical wheels within wheels here and I’m not even looking at what’s shaking in the European Union and its trade bitches with China and the US.

So my question?

How powerful are Canada’s big six chartered banks to be able to plough headlong into whatever tsunamis of “international” developments occur and emerge still afloat and functioning?

My stocks lost a lot this week just gone, but my preferreds haven’t and are chugging along just fine which is why I bought those in the first place!

Meaanwhile what is the status of our NAFTA talks? What’s the prime minister doing in preparing for a Trumpian “offer” Canada simply cannot refuse? And when will he crack down on those useful idiots of Big American Environmental who are opposed to the Kinder Morgan pipeline proposal in BC?

Meantime the positioning of the world’s two pre-eminent empires, America and China keep shucking and jiving.

Just when the real tussle begins is not known. In the event there will be casualties, us included. It will hurt bigly.

Which is one reason why Trump had to sign that awful budget proposal to allow hundreds of billions more dollars to be spent upgrading US defenses.

China’s spending a lot to, but nothing like the US.

For now.

#11 Andrew Woburn on 03.24.18 at 3:54 pm

It isn’t just health care that kills the average American family’s budget. There’s also the cost of water.

“This means for a family of four making $32,000 in Atlanta, an annual water bill of $3,912 eats up more than 12 percent of their income — and again, that’s three times what the EPA recommends a family should be paying for water.”

“Yet for 14 million US households, or 12 percent of homes, water bills are too expensive. And as the cost of water rises, even more Americans are at risk of not being able to pay their monthly water bill.”

– America has a water crisis no one is talking about

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/5/9/15183330/america-water-crisis-affordability-millions

#12 N on 03.24.18 at 4:02 pm

If you can’t beat `em, join `em.

Buying Canadian bank stocks is the best way to hedge against monthly fees for bank accounts.

A necessity in one’s portfolio because of
a) the oligopoly created for the industry and
b) a hedge against bank fees that move with inflation.

#13 MF on 03.24.18 at 4:11 pm

221 Ace Goodheart on 03.24.18 at 2

Too simplistic for the real world. Yes the US debt is a problem, but so does everyone else.

Tell me Ace, how many Chinese bonds have you bought?

Why do you think people buy US treasuries at all?

Time to remember history. Nothing about the paranoid communist government of China can be trusted. Same for every paranoid dictator state is history.

Every statistic is complete BS. Why anyone would believe these stats is beyond me.

MF

#14 I cannot brainz today I has the dumbs! on 03.24.18 at 4:11 pm

The Scotia Plaza was sold back in 2012 for $1.27 Billion dollars, which is roughly 1,000 homes in Toronto or 100 homes in Vancouver.

#15 tccontrarian on 03.24.18 at 4:19 pm

I will never own the banks for ethical reasons!

TCC

#16 Ed on 03.24.18 at 4:20 pm

No Canadian banks needed bail outs or were insolvent during the recent crisis…incredible the BS out there. Liquidity was provided to allow normal commerce to continue.

#17 Amok on 03.24.18 at 4:46 pm

Canadian banks are the world’s largest money launderers.

Ask anyone who works at a branch in the lower mainland how many unreported wire transfers come into through that go unreported. They’re not anecdotes.

As long as snow washing goes unchecked for the world’s criminals, the big banks will always profit.

#18 Amok on 03.24.18 at 4:48 pm

*** that is to say, unreported wire transfer over $10,000

I really need to proofread :/

#19 Reality is stark on 03.24.18 at 4:58 pm

Over the long haul Canadian banks don’t do the average Canadian any favours. The government prospers immeasurably from them, but it is really no more than an additional form of taxation for the Feds.
The really sad part is that the government has been so successful filling the average citizen with fear that we point to the success of our banks as our crowning economic achievement.
Mediocrity is Canadian glory.
A story guaranteed not to end well.

#20 Mark on 03.24.18 at 5:13 pm

“Canadian banks are the world’s largest money launderers.
Ask anyone who works at a branch in the lower mainland how many unreported wire transfers come into through that go unreported. They’re not anecdotes.”

Are you alleging that Canadian banks are not following the law in terms of FINTRAC reporting requirements? That’s a pretty serious allegation, something that just couldn’t be covered up given that there are literally tens of thousands of people who work for the banks, and with so many opportunities to whistleblow out there.

And wire transfers, why would that even be money laundering anyways? Since Vancouver RE’s price bubble can be entirely and completely explained through a bubble in domestic credit, and the economy ex-RE isn’t exactly all that vibrant in Vancouver, there’s little reason to believe that there’s any meaningful foreign participation. Most of the money laundering/foreign participation ‘meme’ has been concocted by RE sell siders to try and push their agenda of making RE sales, “FOMO”. Various RE sell side organizations have even been caught concocting tales of foreign buyers. Survey after survey has found minimal participation of foreign nationals in Vancouver/Toronto’s RE marketplace.

If you want to see what real money being injected into a local economy looks like from the outside, there’s lots of examples out there. Hint: it lifts more “boats” than just RE, and leverage in the local banking system doesn’t spin out of control when outside money is injected — quite the opposite.

#21 TurnerNation on 03.24.18 at 5:13 pm

Always seeking alpha w/zero hedge on this
artisan-inspired* weblog.

A green standout past two days, US Concrete. Down
30% from highs, perhaps unfairly so, and a player in Inf. and Wall building.

Ah yea Kanada where the Queen’s/God’s bankers rule. They say jump we say How high M’Lud?
(Have you driven a Ford lately?)

*Note no actual artisans are involved in its production.

#22 JSS on 03.24.18 at 5:14 pm

My portfolio is around 50% big-six Canadian banks (common shares) for the last ten years.

It’s been good, and I don’t care what anyone says. It works well.

#23 Ron on 03.24.18 at 5:20 pm

Interactive Brokers offers margin loans on CAD investments at 1.96%.

It sounds like a no-brainer to borrow and invest in high-yielding, low volatility TSX stocks, if using a reasonable leverage ratio. Bonus, the margin interest is tax deductible.

Any thoughts on this strategy?

#24 Paul on 03.24.18 at 5:21 pm

TD in Duncan BC being picketed by Kinder Morgan protesters, lol. Use their debit card in the US after May 1 and $10 will cost you over $16 at today’s rates and their 3.5% service charge.

#25 Back to reality on 03.24.18 at 5:31 pm

Banks are valued on asset quality, return on equity, income growth rate, and current value of their discount cash flow. Buying an ETF obscures the quality of the underlying companies.

Before touching a bank, it would be wise to scan the annual report, and determine the annual % loss in earnings for each % loss in their uninsured mortgage portfolio. If significant, then consider the location and mix. P/E ratios may be lower than market because of quality concerns. In a past year, RBC appeared to have a 16% earnings sensitivity to losing 1% of the uninsured mortgages. There was no geographic mix given. They’ve claimed better than 70% loan to value on the portfolio.

Banks with higher return on equity and earnings growth rate trade at much higher P/E ratios. For example BofI Holding Inc BOFI .

Buying ETFs priced at double their average P/E is far more risky than picking a concentrated portfolio of 16 to 18 companies, where you understand each business and don’t overpay. Statements about actively selected portfolios based on mutual fund returns are meaningless. Their portfolios contain hundreds of companies, they have limited ability to follow them, and management is for the next quarter, very short term thinking.

#26 Penny Henny on 03.24.18 at 5:37 pm

Hey Garth isn’t today earth day?
Are you shutting the blog down for an hour?

he,he,he

#27 Lost...but not leased on 03.24.18 at 5:46 pm

I am in shock and awe to the big 6 Canuckistan banks. It won’t be long before they can control those nuisance countries South of the 49th parallel.

In light of this, I have ordered 4 of my 5 fingers on each hand to genuflect in honour of them…(aka only one finger left standing).

#28 tbone on 03.24.18 at 6:03 pm

BMO has an etf … ZEB . has all the banks.
you pay an MER and it has a dividend around 3.5 %

if you want cash flow , get ZWB covered call cdn banks
has an MER , but dividend is around 5 % and paid monthly . its stock price is capped at 13 % I believe .

if you buy the stocks outright , you don’t pay an MER .

I have both bank stocks and the ZWB etf.
one for stock appreciation and the other for cash flow

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.18 at 6:06 pm

@#17 Amok.

As much as I cringe at agreeing with Mark……

My experiences with the banks have been.

1. Sold a house in the Lower Mainland. Transferred several hundred k into another bank. Recieved a call within an hour from the bank regulatory watchdog asking where the money came from.

2.
I like to have a few k cash at hand at all times.
Decided to deposit 1 k cash ($100’s) at my branch.
I had to sign a document saying that the money was mine……..

All this while gangsters bring duffel bags of money into casinos and walk out with cheques……..

The system doesnt work.

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.18 at 6:13 pm

@#26 Penny Henny
“Hey Garth isn’t today earth day?
Are you shutting the blog down for an hour?”
++++++

I usually turn on all my lights, appliances, run the hot water down the drain, open all the windows……..etc.

Because , Earth Day or not.
BC Hydro water still flows through the dam and the turbines still spin……

Wanna help Mother Earth?
Have less children.

#31 For those about to flop... on 03.24.18 at 6:15 pm

Weekend Rewind.

This week in howmuch articles.

You stay classy,San Diego…

M43CA

Visualizing Thirty Years of the U.S. Trade Deficit in One Graph. It is Still Huge Under President Trump.

https://howmuch.net/articles/historical-trade-deficit-usa

Mapped: The Largest Company by Revenue Headquartered in Every State.

https://howmuch.net/articles/largest-company-in-every-state-2018

This Graph Shows Which Political Party Corporate America Loves the Most.

https://howmuch.net/articles/the-30-biggest-political-donors-on-the-fortune-500

#32 espressobob on 03.24.18 at 6:18 pm

Canadian banks are a great play for yield investors. A bit sectorish mind you and better served in a non registered account, but what the hey.

Some of us boomers start to seek income over growth for personal reasons anyways.

Why and what is the point of investing in the first place without an end goal?

#33 Albertaguy in AZ on 03.24.18 at 6:31 pm

#27 Lost…but not leased

I suppose that means you are giving a thumbs up to the Canadian banks!

https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/explore/is-a-thumb-a-finger

#34 For those about to flop... on 03.24.18 at 6:39 pm

The Smoking Goat…

M43CA

https://www.sandiegoreader.com/news/2015/apr/27/feast-escargot-smoking-goat/

#35 Smoking Man on 03.24.18 at 6:43 pm

Every light on tonight.

And tell those march for life protesters to go back and pick up their litter.
What a huge rally in DC. Reminds me of Germany in the late 20s

Trump should make a year of army service after high school so these indoctrinated communist can be set straight.

Teachers are the heart of destroying the best economic system that has ever been created.

Hateful zelousoids.

The protest today was a glimpse into the other side of America. The one the world envies. – Garth

#36 Fake News Again on 03.24.18 at 6:44 pm

The richest corporations in the world….that make and produce absolutely nothing. No wonder the world continues to turn upside down.

#37 Doug Rowat on 03.24.18 at 6:45 pm

#14 I cannot brainz today I has the dumbs! on 03.24.18 at 4:11 pm

The Scotia Plaza was sold back in 2012 for $1.27 Billion dollars, which is roughly 1,000 homes in Toronto or 100 homes in Vancouver.

$1.3 billion and the elevators still run slower than Tom Brady.

–Doug

#38 Fake News Again on 03.24.18 at 6:49 pm

Mark on 03.24.18 at 5:13 pm
“Canadian banks are the world’s largest money launderers.
Ask anyone who works at a branch in the lower mainland how many unreported wire transfers come into through that go unreported. They’re not anecdotes.”

Are you alleging that Canadian banks are not following the law in terms of FINTRAC reporting requirements? That’s a pretty serious allegation, something that just couldn’t be covered up given that there are literally tens of thousands of people who work for the banks, and with so many opportunities to whistleblow out there.

And wire transfers, why would that even be money laundering anyways? Since Vancouver RE’s price bubble can be entirely and completely explained through a bubble in domestic credit, and the economy ex-RE isn’t exactly all that vibrant in Vancouver, there’s little reason to believe that there’s any meaningful foreign participation. Most of the money laundering/foreign participation ‘meme’ has been concocted by RE sell siders to try and push their agenda of making RE sales, “FOMO”. Various RE sell side organizations have even been caught concocting tales of foreign buyers. Survey after survey has found minimal participation of foreign nationals in Vancouver/Toronto’s RE marketplace.

If you want to see what real money being injected into a local economy looks like from the outside, there’s lots of examples out there. Hint: it lifts more “boats” than just RE, and leverage in the local banking system doesn’t spin out of control when outside money is injected — quite the opposite.

_______

Good ‘ole Mark…..who does not live in Greater Van but pretends to know everything about it. Like how BC is the money laundering capital of the world. Which it is…….as being proven by David Eby – NDP MLA. Even though us “locals” have known this fact for 30 years.

#39 Tony on 03.24.18 at 7:05 pm

The entire world is short the Canadian banks and for good reason. Expect the dividend yields on the Canadian banks to double as the share prices plunge.

#40 Tony on 03.24.18 at 7:16 pm

Re: #10 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 03.24.18 at 3:53 pm

Unilateral tariffs between America and China will crush China. I just can’t understand why it took so long to slap China will more tariffs. China has no quality control everything they make busts whereas everything made in America has a sticker on it saying “quality it matters”.

#41 Stan Brooks on 03.24.18 at 7:51 pm

Raising banking dividends in a shrinking economy.

Canadian banks inhibit the ‘growth’ symptoms of a cancer tumor, extraction facilities on top of non-existing economy based on export of cheap labour to US.

Will they outperform in depreciating currency in the next 4-5 years? Sure.

Will they kill the host?
Absolutely. It is just a matter of time. That growth is not sustainable.

#42 Bloviator in chief on 03.24.18 at 8:05 pm

#35 Smoking Man on 03.24.18 at 6:43 pm
Every light on tonight.

And tell those march for life protesters to go back and pick up their litter.
What a huge rally in DC. Reminds me of Germany in the late 20s

Trump should make a year of army service after high school so these indoctrinated communist can be set straight.

Presidente bonespurs goes to the front of the line. Your hero you worship is a silver spooned draft dodger.p

#43 Big Kahuna on 03.24.18 at 8:09 pm

#35Smoky-I wouldn’t be too hard on the kids marching-everybody was clueless at that age-it is almost impossible not to be ignorant as a teenager-the “education” system works overtime trying to keep it that way-intellectually speaking-who are the most impressive kids today?-the Hackers-how much “education” funding is spent on their teaching? Pretty well ZERO. That sums it up.

#44 Victor V on 03.24.18 at 8:36 pm

#42 Bloviator in chief on 03.24.18 at 8:05 pm
#35 Smoking Man on 03.24.18 at 6:43 pm
Every light on tonight.

And tell those march for life protesters to go back and pick up their litter.
What a huge rally in DC. Reminds me of Germany in the late 20s

Trump should make a year of army service after high school so these indoctrinated communist can be set straight.

Presidente bonespurs goes to the front of the line. Your hero you worship is a silver spooned draft dodger.p

=====
=====

Just like Bill Clinton, non?

#45 Andrew Woburn on 03.24.18 at 8:37 pm

I would agree that the MSM creates a false impression about how easy it is to do wire transfers etc. In my business we do wires to and from China and the US and the petty money laundering rules make it a mine field. I tried to deposit a USD draft into my personal bank brokerage account, drawn on my own account at another Canadian chartered bank. It was refused because I couldn’t “prove” ownership. WTF.

#46 Pete on 03.24.18 at 8:39 pm

Canadian banks will NOT come out of another recession as cleanly as the last…we have a massive debt per capita this time around that will cripple many lending institutions!

#47 JSS on 03.24.18 at 8:49 pm

For all those who think that Canadian banks are solely dependent on the Canadian economy, you’re wrong.

Many Canadian banks have US operations, and foreign bank operations as well. They’re diversified.

They’re not set up to fail, as much as some of you would surely like.

#48 Lost...but not leased on 03.24.18 at 8:51 pm

#33 albertaguy in AZ

Close …but no cigar.
If this anthropoligal “rubiks cube” is not solved….SHTF,

As an aside…check the length of the finger next to “pinkie” (smallest)finger. For normal red blooded XY chromosone types…this should of greater length then the finger on the other side(ie the indigent digit that votes for Turdeau).

Otherwise…For the sake of Canada’s future, consider going to one’s MD and requesting an even number of digits per paw….

#49 JSS on 03.24.18 at 8:52 pm

Anyone have any opinion about Enbridge (TSX: ENB)?
Dividend cut on the way? Value play? Stock is dropping like a heavy stone. Any of you have the stones?

#50 Steve French on 03.24.18 at 8:58 pm

America students lead a crowd of 800,000 people protesting against gun violence.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/mar/24/marchers-across-the-us-united-in-plan-for-pro-gun-politicians-vote-them-out

Trump is on the golf course in Florida.

What a MASSIVE rebuke to the Republican Party and D-Trump.

Stick that in your pipe….. Smoking Man!!!

Boooyahhh!

#51 Leo Trollstoy on 03.24.18 at 8:59 pm

The best careers are in TECH!

http://time.com/money/5199726/best-jobs-indeed-2018/?sf183897308=1

Forget your worries and go get it!

#52 Steve French on 03.24.18 at 9:02 pm

800,000 people in Washington DC protesting gun violence reminds Smoking Man of Germany in the late 20s?

WTF is wrong with you… seriously?

I mean… what exactly is your problem?

Garth can we ban that deplorable moron finally? He’s got a pathological sickness.

#53 Ian on 03.24.18 at 9:02 pm

Canadian bank stocks are going to get MURDERED as this housing bear continues. They have allowed so little in loan loss provisions it is just scary.

Three of the four pillars of the markets are now functioning correctly:

1) US stocks collapsing from their second-highest valuation of all time. Lots more to come. Couldn’t even wait for ‘sell in May and go away’ !

2) The USD index is cracking downwards and is already at a 3.5 year low. This is the beginning of the coming USD crisis. With 21t in debt and 1.3t in deficit, and 1b trade deficit ex services, the market is finally realising the USD is heading way lower.

3) gold finally responding based on the same points in #2.

The final pillar to crack is bonds. It is unbelievable to me that the 10 year yield is still below 3. They acted as a risk off asset late in the week, but this won’t last long. The creditors are about to turn off the tap and then it’s game over.

#54 Glengarry Girl on 03.24.18 at 9:34 pm

Smoking Man

I am a 50 Year old Canadian Woman living in the US for the past 10 years. I joined the March for our Lives in Phoenix today and I can assure you that this Movement is not full of clueless Tide Pod eating kids as those scared old dinosaurs love to say. This could very well be the start of a long overdue Revolution and the awakening and mobilization of free thinking people that want a better World for themselves and their Children. That World is not the picture of a Nationalistic White Christian America being painted by Trump and his supporters as some kind of perfect utopia. These MAGA People are exposing themselves for who they truly are and it’s Ugly, I’m hoping they are the minority. They are fearful of progress and change, but the World is going to evolve and grow, there is no stopping that. I’m feeling optimistic about the Future of America for the first time. I’m extremely grateful to be Canadian and not have the extreme Nationalistic mentality that clings to the past. I believe that is our Strength.

#55 non smoker on 03.24.18 at 9:57 pm

man i hate that Smoking man …

Every light on tonight. ???

yuk .. what a …….. nnnnnnn

#56 non smoker on 03.24.18 at 10:03 pm

please keep smoking man here

. . i need to hear from the nasty people like him so that I have the fuel and strength to fight against ignorance and bigotry .. and plain old , i’m alright Jack thinking …

#57 Big Kahuna on 03.24.18 at 10:25 pm

#54Glengarry-the Communist Dictatorship of China has a “Nationalistic mentality” that totally dwarfs the USA, Canada, Trump or any MAGA supporter. How it is even possible there are a great many persons like yourself unaware of this reality is a tribute to the brainwashing skill of the MSM.

#58 Smoking Man on 03.24.18 at 10:25 pm

#52 Steve French on 03.24.18 at 9:02 pm
800,000 people in Washington DC protesting gun violence reminds Smoking Man of Germany in the late 20s?

WTF is wrong with you… seriously?

I mean… what exactly is your problem?

Garth can we ban that deplorable moron finally? He’s got a pathological sickness.
……

Frenchy get a grip of yourself.

Who the hell supports violence of any kind. No NRA member has ever been involved in a mass school shooting. It’s a smoke screen exploiting this deadly travesty to push forward a socialist agenda that always leads to disaster. Every single God damn time it’s been tried. Once they take you guns, they come for property, then your life as demonstrated by Hitler and Stalin.

Ban me. Seriously?

Is that how you solve problems by shutting up someone you disagree with. That’s communistic. You have right to engage me in dialog. The right to offend me. I always say you can’t bend what you can’t offend. But I have the right too. And if I dont it’s communism.

Look at the hundreads of clips being upload today. Look at the conversation between crazed radical lefties and constitional americans. Can you not see what is clearly going on. Is your trump derangement syndrome making you that blind or are a commie. I Don’t know.

I don’t own a gun and never will. My too thumps is all I need. But I’m glad that millions of people in the USA do. Human nature teaches us that absolute power corrupts absolutely every single time. This is great detergent.

Did you catch how celebrity actist David Hoog gestured to crowd aftet his speech. Yet I’m pathological.

You of all people should know I see things long before others do, you’ve been around a while. what is going on in schools is horifing.

A generation with high expectations and no tools to deal with even the smallest chuck of crap the universe will toss at then when they step of the school bus for the last time.

Get a grip man. We need to recognize metal illness and try and prevent these things from happening. Recognizing the real problem is how you fix things.

Now take cowala bear for a walk.

Smokey out.

This conversation is over. Do not revisit it. – Garth

#59 jess on 03.24.18 at 10:33 pm

#11 Andrew Woburn on 03.24.18 at 3:54 pm

trust trendline?

https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/03/23/aliso-canyon-disaster-phmsa-natural-gas-storage-regulation

Slightly less than half of the 415 natural gas storage sites in America have been operating without safety standards or inspections by federal regulators.

However, if SoCalGas had known that the well at Aliso Canyon was likely to fail, would the company have addressed the problem on its own? Apparently not, because according to its own company logs, SoCalGas had known about the potential for a leak in that particular well since 1992.

No current regulations require safety shut-off valves on natural gas storage wells like the one that failed at Aliso Canyon. In an interesting twist of fate, Aliso Canyon’s failed well actually had an underground safety valve, but SoCalGas removed it in 1979 and did not replace it, despite its own documents decades later noting the well was at risk of leaking.

Apparently, SoCalGas requested to raise customer rates in 2010 in order to make repairs and replace leaking safety valves, but its plan was to do so at a rate of only five percent of affected valves a year.

“Newly uncovered information shows that Southern California Gas Company admitted five years ago it operated numerous leaking wells in Aliso Canyon, received a ratepayer increase to upgrade these wells, and yet deliberately failed to replace safety valves on its gas injection wells,” said attorney Patricia Oliver, who is involved in one of the lawsuits about the incident, in January 2016.

In July 2017, James Mansdorfer, a former SoCalGas employee in charge of the wells at Aliso Canyon, highlighted additional risks associated with potential earthquakes at the gas storage facility.

#60 Linda on 03.24.18 at 10:40 pm

I am not against banks or any other business creating wealth for investors. They are a business; the main reason for their existence as for any business is to make a profit.

However (& everyone knew that was coming) what I am finding worrisome is conflict of interest. It seems to me that in the push for investor returns banks have been moving towards a slippery slope of less service & more service charges as an ever increasing rate. For instance, I have a credit card issued by one of the Big 6 banks. That card used to include car rental insurance & trip insurance as part of the package. It doesn’t any longer. If I want those services, I would have to find another card that offers them & almost certainly will now be charged a fee. Fees for many bank services have been going up, but for what reason? Many of those services are now automated, produced by a computer system instead of a salaried employee. We are getting electronic & paper offers for services we already have. Are our fees increasing due to this lack of coordination? I won’t even begin to get into the conflict of interest regarding financial planning/investing etc. If I’m going to have an advisor my expectation is that they will invest my funds in a manner that will provide me with the best rate of return, not improve their investor’s bottom line at my expense.

#61 NoName on 03.24.18 at 10:49 pm

!!! You must read my comment !!!

I remember back in a day wheni was tennager protest/marches for peace, before whole country went kaboom, guess what, protest/marches did not work.

Policy will not change because 15yrs old “think” that it should. What is interesting that gun ownership is serbia is high, 50 per 100 people, vs us 101 per 100, but no mass school shooting.

It is a time to start asking corect question why are kids on this continent getting much more eft up compering to elsvere.

And on a side note because mj was mention here is something to read, how about second hand smoke…


https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/link-between-adolescent-pot-smoking-and-psychosis-strengthens/

Research presented at a Berlin psychiatric conference shows teenage cannabis use hastens onset of schizophrenia in vulnerable individuals

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=smoking+marijuana+psychosis+study&hl=en&as_sdt=0&as_vis=1&oi=scholart&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj3xtLXtobaAhVL0oMKHfsMAKAQgQMIKjAA

#62 ben on 03.24.18 at 10:53 pm

Banks are a cost center. Let’s say for arguments sake we need banks. Their services are necessary. Okay, fine, I can buy that.

Now, given that we need these, what are they for? They are for facilitating making actual things happen. Things like building bridges, investing in data centers. Investing in people (education).

When something needs doing it’s best to do it with as few resources as possible. So it is with banking.

Banking should take up as little of the economy as possible. The less it takes up, the better. That’s not ideological, it’s just a fact. If your car takes 500ml of oil per year, do you want some guy to modify it so it uses 750ml per year, for no gain? No thanks.

Yet in the past two decades we’ve seen banking come to take a larger and larger share of the pie. Banks now dominate downtown. Their foyers are vast caverns of wasted space.

Why are people looking at banking profits as anything other than an opportunity cost for other domestic sectors?

#63 Dobermanduke on 03.24.18 at 10:55 pm

SM is a lot like SCM. He throws it out there to get the attention. As hard as it is you are best to scroll on past and ignore him.

#64 Smoking Man on 03.24.18 at 10:57 pm

This conversation is over. Do not revisit it. – Garth

Got it off my chest, I’m good now.

Glengarry Girl on 03.24.18 at 9:34 pm
Appreciate your insight, well said, delivered without insults, that’s how rational people communicate.

#65 For those about to flop... on 03.24.18 at 11:08 pm

San Diego had one of the lower key marches in the country today.

Maybe a couple of thousand turned up.

This country has its fair share of issues ,but I always have a great time here and enjoy its people.

The Orange Octopus knows it’s already a great country.

He just wants to Make America Grope Again…

M43CA

#66 F1 on 03.24.18 at 11:18 pm

Why is it that when you talk about a balanced portfolio there is no mention of gold. At least hold some high quality gold miners that pay dividends. You say yourself gold goes up in market panic but you have no exposure to it in your funds? So not fully balanced huh?

#67 Glengarry Girl on 03.24.18 at 11:26 pm

#57 Big Kahuna
WTF?
Somehow my support of Democracy and Free Speech and my renewed hope for a better World makes me naive and less informed than you? Big Kahuna, with a stupid name like that, you must be one of those old dudes with a big ego.

#68 Mark on 03.24.18 at 11:35 pm

“#49 JSS on 03.24.18 at 8:52 pm
Anyone have any opinion about Enbridge (TSX: ENB)?”

Enbridge has ~$61B of long-term debt. Most of which have very long future maturity dates, and relatively high fixed interest rates. Rising long-term interest rates should decrease the mark-to-market value of these long-term obligations, while Enbridge’s cashflows should improve as the cost of transmitting oil and gas rises with inflation, and perhaps even beyond as pipeline demand increases.

The ‘argument’ that rising interest rates are bad for firms like Enbridge really rings hollow — rising interest rates actually are of a benefit to firms which carry a lot of higher-rate long-term debt. The old model, of valuing ‘utilities’ based on the belief that cash flows are fixed, and a rising discount rate is completely and utterly out of date and inappropriate here.

So basically one has to answer the question, is Enbridge being sold off because of an irrational belief that dividend-bearing stocks are bad in rising long-term rate environments, a holdover from the time when “utilities” bore simpler financial and operating structures? Or is there truly something hidden in the Enbridge financial structure which is problematic? Or is there something in the macro environment that people are increasingly becoming afraid of, and are selling irrationally? I can’t answer those questions with any level of confidence for Enbridge (or most companies for that matter that end up in a similar situation), and hence feel that the indexing approach probably works best for most investors unless they have vast and sophisticated research departments. And even then, the brightest minds often get things wrong.

#69 Dee on 03.24.18 at 11:48 pm

I just don’t see how banks walk away unharmed the next recession. We bypassed the last one. Not expecting one of the big 6 to die but it be insane to assume they won’t take it on the chin with these debt levels. The public can’t borrow it’s way out of this one too. I may be wrong. I won’t quit my day job

#70 Adrian on 03.24.18 at 11:55 pm

Banks don’t create wealth. They extract it through rent-taking on deposits they create out of nothing. Their profits are a burden on labour and business. But I’m glad you’re benefiting.

#71 tbone on 03.24.18 at 11:58 pm

# 60 linda
the green bank will wave the fee on the travel card that offers travel insurance if you maintain 5000.00 in an chequing account. this is up to 65 years of age .
after that travel insurance is only offered for 4 days .

another card offers CAA type services , but you cant own both and have the fee waved .
so I will put that one in my spouse`s name and use another account for the 5000.00 minimum .

I have never paid a fee , I don’t know if its because
I use them as my primary bank and keep a considerable sum on their books .

I don’t earn any interest on the 5k , but it`s not a big deal . I just don’t like to pay fees , so it feels like its free fee based cards .

#72 Spenditall on 03.25.18 at 12:42 am

Why was Hitler a fan of gun control?

#73 waiting on the westcoast on 03.25.18 at 12:54 am

#58 SM

I personally think a little more due process and certain weapons of rapid fire need to be removed from the general public’s ability to purchase.

Your delivery and penchant for the dramatic often are your undoing but I have to agree with you about people needing to toughen up. Free speech is more important than offending people. Canada especially needs to put more value on expressing confrontational opinions and less on fitting in.

For example…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/french-waiter-in-vancouver-says-he-was-fired-for-his-direct-honest-personality-1.4581933

#74 Leo Trollstoy on 03.25.18 at 1:45 am

The US economy is better now with Trump

For those marching in rallies

The US cares about $

But enjoy the long walks, they’re good for u

#75 Smoking Man on 03.25.18 at 2:08 am

Next time someone dip shit calls me a racist and bigot, I will never ask for you to be band, my two uncoordinated thumbs is all I need to slay you bastards who suffer from no real-life experience. It’s up to garth to allow a rebuttal, but even he is under the heat now. He don’t need it.

Next time I’m called a name I’m just going to respectfully ask for evidence. Just because I believe in unregulated pure capitalism, and I like Trump’s deregulation and lowering of taxes.

Taxes were designed to pay for a road, infrastructure and things that benefited a nation. a tiny small % of GDP say, 5%. Anything beyond that is pure theft.

Bigot Racist, ok here is my story. A son of two refugees from WW2, dad was seriously handicapped after being beaten and torched at Nazi concentration labour camps. Mom was gang-raped by Nazis who invaded Lesbos, my folks were seriously damaged. Arranged weeding. They had a son.

Dads occupation was a sweeper, mon was a seamstress working in the basement at Etons part-time. But what they had in common, they loved their son. Me.

That shit gives you strength, the second I started making loot, I took care of them, huge.

Hey SJW kids, what have you done folks lately?

I stuck it out in Canada till they were both gone. I was a good kid. Now I’m free

We raised our kids in Brampton where we have every color and culture under the universe, We embraced it, I love curry.

White privilege doesn’t affect me, I’m olive skinned.

But when you don’t like what I say, or how I say it, tell me, explain. To toss labels around with zero evidence clearly shows how stupid you are and incapable of reasonable debate.

Yeah you think you’re smart, spent who knows what the cost was getting that obedience certificate from a university, what did you need to do for this trophy?

Memorize and regurgitate on demand, that is your achievement, the thinking was not part of the process by the sear fact you went.

Equal pay for slaves is the issue of the day. So Stupid

Own the god damn business. What is wrong with you pretend intelectuls .

#76 Ian on 03.25.18 at 6:50 am

Senator Rand Paul is the only one making any sense.

https://twitter.com/drrandpaul/status/976860052589072386?s=21

#77 LivinLarge on 03.25.18 at 7:07 am

Shhhhhhh!!!

Let’s keep this reality to ourselves. Our banks aren’t privately owned and as mentioned in the comments, essentially an arm of the federal government. One is the longest dividend issuing company in N.A. and none of the big 4 or 5 have ever even reduced a quarterly dividend let alone suspended one.

Sure as you mention, they aren’t immune to capital market craziness so periodically they dump capital value but if their history is one of never cutting dividends then those ugly capital sell offs simple present incredible buying opps.

BMO did halve it’s capital value in about ’09 but the stable div just truly goosed the yield and the cap soon came back and if you just drip the divs you compound your return then you compound like crazy.

Long term buy, hold and drip superstars.

If you don’t want a balanced diversified portfolio, and who here doesn’t really then going heavy CDN banks and just riding the big wave is about a lucrative as it gets…boring as watching corn mate but lucrative.

#78 LivinLarge on 03.25.18 at 7:14 am

“Why was Hitler a fan of gun control?”…oh god, not this canard again. Because he wasn’t a fan of universal “gun control”. He was a despotic dictator and despotic dictators, everyone of then forever have to keep their populaces away from the means of armed resistance to their regimes. Hitler never wrnt after the guns of party members.

#79 Gravy Train on 03.25.18 at 7:34 am

#57 Big Kahuna on 03.24.18 at 10:25 pm
“#54Glengarry-the Communist [d]ictatorship of China has a “Nationalistic mentality” that totally dwarfs the USA, Canada, Trump or any MAGA supporter. How it is even possible there are a great many persons like yourself unaware of this reality is a tribute to the brainwashing skill of the MSM.”

You—and, I suspect, most Trump supporters—confuse authoritarianism with leadership! Politicians who trample on democratic principles and values, scapegoat certain segments of society, degrade environmental and labour standards and norms, obfuscate and—quite frankly—lie to the electorate, undermine government agencies and public servants, refuse to take a leadership role in international affairs, threaten other sovereign nations with war or obliteration, are not leaders! They’re dangerous demagogues!

And, yes, Garth, I do see the irony in continuing my argument with a brick! :)

#80 Steven Rowlandson on 03.25.18 at 7:42 am

Richer? They just got big numbers on their balance sheets. The real question is how much real gold and silver do they own and have in their vaults and can they demonstrate that it is there?

#81 Jungle on 03.25.18 at 7:51 am

Doug

What are your favourite banks right now and do you have a target for earnings and share price?

Thanks!

#82 Bob in India on 03.25.18 at 8:06 am

There has always been banks in some form and there has always been someone willing to lend their funds for a return since the dawn of civilization.

It’s called business….right?

#83 KLNR on 03.25.18 at 8:40 am

@#52 Steve French on 03.24.18 at 9:02 pm
800,000 people in Washington DC protesting gun violence reminds Smoking Man of Germany in the late 20s?

WTF is wrong with you… seriously?

I mean… what exactly is your problem?

Garth can we ban that deplorable moron finally? He’s got a pathological sickness.
__________________________

Best to just ignore the bigot. He’s an uber troll just looking to get a rise out of folks with his nonsense.

#84 Doug Rowat on 03.25.18 at 8:43 am

#66 F1 on 03.24.18 at 11:18 pm

Why is it that when you talk about a balanced portfolio there is no mention of gold. At least hold some high quality gold miners that pay dividends. You say yourself gold goes up in market panic but you have no exposure to it in your funds? So not fully balanced huh?

We have plenty of assets that provide low to negative correlations to each other. And who said anything about market panic?

–Doug

#85 Gravy Train on 03.25.18 at 8:50 am

#63 Dobermanduke on 03.24.18 at 10:55 pm
“SM is a lot like SCM. He throws it out there to get the attention. As hard as it is you are best to scroll on past and ignore him.”

It’s like driving past a traffic accident looking straight ahead. Try as you might, at some point, you’ll take a little peak! :)

#86 Doug Rowat on 03.25.18 at 8:59 am

#60 Linda on 03.24.18 at 10:40 pm

I won’t even begin to get into the conflict of interest regarding financial planning/investing etc. If I’m going to have an advisor my expectation is that they will invest my funds in a manner that will provide me with the best rate of return, not improve their investor’s bottom line at my expense.

After being in the financial industry for 20 years, the conflict-of-interest problems I’ve witnessed are too numerous to name.

But here’s one simple rule of thumb: if you’re investing with an investment advisor from one of the big banks and your portfolio is dominated by that bank’s products (mutual funds, ETFs, GICs, etc.) then the advisor probably doesn’t have your best interests at heart.

–Doug

#87 Gravy Train on 03.25.18 at 9:18 am

#75 Smoking Man on 03.25.18 at 2:08 am
“Next time some dipshit calls me a racist and bigot….”

Hey, Smokey. Play nice with the other kiddies, or we’ll have to put you in the corner and give you a time-out! :)

“I am the least racist person you have ever interviewed, that I can tell you.” — Donald Trump

#88 LivinLarge on 03.25.18 at 9:25 am

There’s also a rarely mentioned but incredibly lucrative aspect to our banks. They are all money spinning service providers in an essential service industry. They also have in their constitutions a predetermined minimum % of profits distribution range. So, since they are simply generating profits via fees and interest, every second of the day, they only have to manage their risk and fixed expenses well and their profits grow like weeds. They are the absolute wizards at managing both risk and fixed expenses.

On top of all that or maybe because of all that, our banks regularly spit their floats. It seems they split the float when dividend yields exceed the 4ish % without there being a share price collapse but I could be wrong about that benchmark. Bottom line is the banks want their shares to be affordable to the retail investor so they periodically split and that split can and usually also results in an almost immediate run up of SP so a quick capital appreciation without the investor having to do anything but sit still.

#89 LivinLarge on 03.25.18 at 9:38 am

“I just don’t see how banks walk away unharmed the next recession.”…very, very simple. They are the absolute masters at systemic risk management. Not the private US type banks though, just our federally chartered NGO banks. By the time the economy take a powder our risk averse banks have already shoved off the risk. Nothing is perfect and their SP gets hammered for a while but because they are fee based essential service providers, they recover relatively quickly when the retail investor gets back into the game as they always do.

Until retail banking, wealth management and insurance cease to be needed, our banks will just churn out profits and never decreasing dividends. BMO has been doing just this for over 150 years.

#90 iwill on 03.25.18 at 9:46 am

#4 – Scotia Plaza Sale

You know, I don’t think any land transfer tax was paid on that $1.27Billion sale. Loopholes….

#91 Penny Henny on 03.25.18 at 9:53 am

#71 tbone on 03.24.18 at 11:58 pm
# 60 linda
the green bank will wave the fee on the travel card that offers travel insurance if you maintain 5000.00 in an chequing account. this is up to 65 years of age .
after that travel insurance is only offered for 4 days .

another card offers CAA type services , but you cant own both and have the fee waved .
so I will put that one in my spouse`s name and use another account for the 5000.00 minimum .
///////////////////////

My TD cashback card offers trip insurance and CAA type insurance. This is a no fee card IF you open Ultimate account and keep 5K in there. Also this account offers free bank drafts, safety deposit box and 1 calender.
Cash back is 1%

#92 senta on 03.25.18 at 10:08 am

Canadian Banks are an oligopoly. Its very profitable to invest in oligopolies. Also, banks in australia, brazil, chile are oligopolies. Bell, Rogers, Telus – make up another oligopoly – which is a must for all Canadian investors. Utilities same – Hydro one, Fortis, Emera etc.
Doug – in a future column you should explain the dividend tax credit to the unwashed blog dogs. Believe it or not – Its possible to get a $50K taxfree dividend income in Ontario from dividends if you don’t have another source of income.
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/you-can-earn-50k-in-tax-free-dividends-but-theres-a-catch-you-cant-have-a-job

#93 Stormy Daniels on 03.25.18 at 10:39 am

Last chance, Doug.

I warned Ryan last weekend. Still no response.

If I don’t get your transfer of $130,000 by 5 o’clock this afternoon, Toronto time, I will be including the full details of my relationship with Bandit and Garth when I go on 60 Minutes tonight. The film editors are waiting to hear from me about what still needs deleting.

The clock is ticking…………………….

#94 Gravy Train on 03.25.18 at 11:04 am

#43 Big Kahuna on 03.24.18 at 8:09 pm
“[I]t is almost impossible not to be ignorant as a teenager….”

Uh, no. Your ignorance is well past the teenage years! :)

#95 Steve French on 03.25.18 at 11:12 am

“I carried an M-4 in the Afghanistan desert for almost a year. If you feel you need this or another weapon of war like it to protect your home; you need to re-evaluate the way you’re living your life & make fewer enemies. These have no place in civilian hands.
#VetsForGunReform”

Stick that in your Pipe, Smoking Loser.

#96 Smoking Man on 03.25.18 at 11:16 am

Gravy Train on 03.25.18 at 8:50 am
#63 Dobermanduke on 03.24.18 at 10:55 pm
“SM is a lot like SCM. He throws it out there to get the attention. As hard as it is you are best to scroll on past and ignore him.”

It’s like driving past a traffic accident looking straight ahead. Try as you might, at some point, you’ll take a little peak! :)
……

Do you see the buildings in today’s photo. Do you know why they exist. Competition, driven by the desire to be the best. It’s called capitalism.

I’m sure you are capable of googling photos of Cuba or Venezuela. Thats called communism.

No one says boo when your working for a company you are on teams to make your company grow and prosper and share the prosperity the enemy is the rival corps.

Yet you apply the same logic to a country as a whole. You are labeld a nationalist pig by people who never built anything or ever will.

So frustrating. We buy Saudi oil. When we could be refining our own. We are turning on each other rather than helping each other. These polices driven by an ideology built by the insane for the insane.

#97 Mark on 03.25.18 at 11:29 am

“#74 Leo Trollstoy on 03.25.18 at 1:45 am
The US economy is better now with Trump”

That must be why GDP growth is only at Obama levels:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/26/politics/trump-economic-growth-gdp/index.html

All that Trump has really succeeded at doing economy-wise is creating a lot of hype. Not backed by much substance. Not that anyone should pine for the days of Obama, but to say that Trump is doing a lot better simply isn’t accurate with objective economic numbers.

#98 kman on 03.25.18 at 12:09 pm

The most important thing to watch for is, US want’s to open the Canadian market to US banking and telecom. If they succeed during the NAFTA negotiations then look out. Telecom is already showing this. The technology with 5G can bypass the infrastructure that has given our telecom companies their monopoly.

#99 Keith in Rio on 03.25.18 at 12:37 pm

#96 Smoking Man…….that was a nice explanation of liberalism in your last paragraph.

FWIW about 10,000 refugees a month are streaming into northern Brasilian cities and towns from Venezuela, but you will NEVER see this on the “Goebbel News Network” here in Canada.

#100 LivinLarge on 03.25.18 at 12:44 pm

“Doug – in a future column you should explain the dividend tax credit to the unwashed blog dogs. Believe it or not – Its possible to get a $50K taxfree dividend income in Ontario from dividends if you don’t have another source of income.”…another Shhhhhhh issue.

It’s not like the DTC is in any way carved in stone especially with a Liberal federal government always looking for new/more tax revenue. Special tax treatment of dividend income isn’t even available in the UK and likely many other jurisdictions as well. They tax income as income almost regardless of source. Sure, that results in a lower congregate marginal rate structure but you still end up being taxed pretty much the same.

So, keep the DTC basically under your hat until another PC in office or we’ll find the inclusion rate endlessly messed with. Div income represents 1/2 my income deliberately so I have a vested interest in not losing that puppy.

#101 Gravy Train on 03.25.18 at 12:51 pm

#96 Smoking Man on 03.25.18 at 11:16 am
“Do you see the buildings in today’s photo[?] Do you know why they exist[?] Competition, driven by the desire to be the best. It’s called capitalism.

“I’m sure you are capable of [G]oogling photos of Cuba or Venezuela. That[’]s called communism.”

Are you saying I don’t know the difference between capitalism and communism, you doofus? I majored in economics, and minored in mathematics—and with top honours marks, you genius, you! That last part where I called you a genius—that’s called sarcasm! :)

#102 Westcdn on 03.25.18 at 1:19 pm

Sometimes I think if I made my belief system black and white based on my experiences combined with a wilfully blind overcharged ego, I too could rise to warlord/negotiator -nothing like slaying speedbumps to make your day. I have drawn a roadmap to my goal of fabulous wealth and power –I want money for nothing and the chicks for free. Well actually, secured creature comforts will do and I think it is more important how you die rather than how you lived. When things change, I usually modify my route.

Despite my comments, I have always believed in souls and karma -grey overlords notwithstanding. I think you should avoid harming others but there are times when things must be done. There is a reason I am an average dude (the “e” is vital).

Julius Caesar and Alexander the Great had lives I respect. Their records are spotty but both refused to allow barriers to stop them and they were human– being gay was heaped on them by enemies. All I can say is they were products of their times. Both were assassinated like JFK, Martin King, Lincoln … It is tough to fight the establishment, never mind change.

So much for the heady stuff – what am I doing on the ground? I hear the term debt deflation being tossed about but that won’t happen without wage inflation. I do try to understand other viewpoints and learn from them. Mark makes my mind spin –he seems to have custom made prism however a challenge is something I react.

Things are looking negative so I have been buying more reset preferreds because I not afraid of inflation. I even bought a 1 month call option on shares I like. These are things where time must be your friend or go home. I have lots of dry powder and I use debt to buy productive assets. I don’t know where the bottom is but that won’t stop me from buying shares of Canadian companies I believe in. I stumbled out of the gate this year and it’s been struggle since. I still buy individual companies and am looking at ADR’s on the American exchanges.

I am not keen on banks but I have been wrong –lots. I’ll take my chances because I believe in myself.

#103 IMHO on 03.25.18 at 2:06 pm

Article for is the muppets.

#104 ben on 03.25.18 at 3:42 pm

regarding the potential for collusion due to a small number of banks and a captive market.

td and rbc have both put up their safe deposit box fees by about 20%

#105 Gravy Train on 03.25.18 at 4:16 pm

#104 ben on 03.25.18 at 3:42 pm
“[TD] and [RBC] have both put up their safe deposit box fees by about 20%.”

I was upset when they became no longer tax-deductible. :(

#106 Dobermanduke on 03.25.18 at 4:41 pm

Gravy Train on 03.25.18 at 8:50 am
#63 Dobermanduke on 03.24.18 at 10:55 pm
“SM is a lot like SCM. He throws it out there to get the attention. As hard as it is you are best to scroll on past and ignore him.”

It’s like driving past a traffic accident looking straight ahead. Try as you might, at some point, you’ll take a little peak! :)

—————————————–

I understand completely but he is a self professed fiction writer so I think of that accident as a mirage