It’s just an ugly half-century-old bung on 55 feet of uninspired dirt in the worky East End. But when it went up for sale eleven months ago, realtor Dan was surprised.
“So I sold the place with a bully offer,” he says. (That’s when a purchaser disregards the seller’s desire to accept offers on a certain date and ponies up an extreme bid to bully everyone else out of the way.) “In this case the seller was wanting to wait until the listing came out. That didn’t happen. The house had no improvements for 20 years, and even had just 60-amp service. So I sold it to him. It was all I could do to make him see the light.”
Thus did the place on Applefield, Toronto, change hands. It had been listed for $849,900, and sold for $890,000. With double land transfer tax the bully bidder shelled out almost $920,000. Yes, peak house.
Two weeks later the Ontario government lowered the boom with a go-home tax, universal rent controls and more. Then interest rates started to snake higher. News of the B20 mortgage stress test spread. And suddenly the bubble was gone. No more 30% year/year increases. Instead, the beginning of the great unwind.
Well, an identical house across the street is for sale, and realtor Dan is shaking his head. The ask is $748,800. If it sells for full coin, the net after commission will be $711,360 for a real-world, one-year loss of equity on this street of 22.6%. Ouch.
Ignore the real estate board stats, because this is what’s actually happening to detached homes in most hoods, in most markets, most of the time. The buyers are gone. Sellers who waited to list are freaking. Prices are tumbling. And it may have just started.
As you know, the US Fed jacked rates again Wednesday. That it would, was a slam-dunk certainty. The cost of money has now jumped five times in little more than a year. As a result bond yields went up, the stock market swallowed it and the US dollar declined. All as expected.
The big question – given a shiny new boss at the American central bank (Jerome Powell) – was what comes next? How aggressive will the bankers be in piling on more interest, based on their view of the Trump economy? Now we know. Very.
Here’s the forecast just received: three increases in 2018. Three more in 2019. At least two additional in 2020. The federal funds rate which sat at zero during the dark, desperate, credit-crisis Obama days will hit almost 3.5% by the time Trump squares off against Oprah. This is happening because the Fed believes modest economic growth will be sustained, almost everybody who wants a job will have one and the Republican tax cuts will fuel it all. As a result, lots of consumer spending and business investment will occur – and higher rates will result, to ensure no wage-price spiral or romping inflation.
Fine. No more doubt. Seven more American rate hikes coming, bringing the total to 13 in this tightening cycle. That’s not far off the historic average, but it must scare the poop out of moisters and real estate bulls who thought (and said so here) that mortgage rates could never rise above 3% without causing the market to crash. “Because everyone is so in debt and has no money,” they whined, “the government wouldn’t dare do it.”
Well, kids, the government isn’t running this show. The CBers are. Get used to it. In this country the mandate of the Bank of Canada is not to worry about your mortgage or even economic growth, but rather to protect the value of the dollar, keep inflation under control and maintain monetary stability. As such, you can be sure rates here will also rise – as they have in the past when 92% of the time the BoC aped the Fed. It may take a few months, but it’s coming.
This is what makes politicians so dangerous. They diddle with housing when natural forces are the best tonic to issues like unaffordability. The risk now is that the universal mortgage stress test overreaches. Or that Toronto will err with a vacant homes tax. Or BC’s provincial politburo will tax a declining market into a dying one. Household debt is extreme, residential real estate is leveraged up the wazoo, the cost of money is plodding higher and now governments – who allowed the bubble to inflate – have chosen the worst moment possible to prove they can push everyone around.
The outcome will be far worse as a result. More proof bullies never win.
(Note: An earlier version of this post incorrectly identified the exact home for sale. That reference has been removed.)
225 comments ↓
FIRST!
strange, in my hood of sunnylea seems mostly everything that comes to market is selling quickly wether its a 900k bung or a 2+mil rebuild. location location i guess?
Mr. Turner,
I am investing a downpayment and waiting to see what happens with the housing market. The neighbourhood my wife and I want to live in is one that you would probably consider least likely to be impacted by a significant housing correction (High Park/Bloor West area). My question is this; if housing crashes significantly, the economy may be impacted as well. Therefore a portion of my (hopefully) diversified, balanced portfolio will decline. Am I stupid to think that there is a chance my portfolio will decline in value more than the houses we would be looking for?
Poor little house. Uglier than an ugly dog’s posterior.
Well.
Look on the bright side.
They didn’t have to repaint the exterior…….
Garth may be finally right after many years of warning the masses.I flipped a condo last year and had a 2.59% for 30 years.In 2 years I think the 5 year will be as high 3.75%.Unbelievable,Canada may just give up interests rate increases and let our currency tank.Wouldn’t be the first time.
“Also – your argument on aircraft prices is a erroneous. The aircraft of today are more highly regulated, have more capability, and are made of far superior materials. “
A 1950s Cessna (like a 172 or something), built of virtually the same design, has more capability and is made of far superior materials? Good one, very funny. They go for a half million brand new give or take (CAD$) because the manufacturer and the parts suppliers have to reserve large amounts to pay for litigation.
The same will be quite applicable to self-driving cars. Every minor accident involving personal injury will be an inquisition upon the design and the manufacturers, engineers, parts suppliers, and anyone who conducted maintenance on the vehicle. Costs will be extreme, not because LIDAR sensors can’t be made cheap (mass produced, they perhaps can be), but because of the extreme legal liability that anyone who comes in contact with a self-driving car will have if something goes wrong.
A car with a driver, there is at least someone “behind the wheel” who can be held legally accountable, whose performance is measurable, who can monitor all of the mechanical parts for effacous and safe operation. Who can make the decision to “pull over” if a wheel starts wobbling, or the weather conditions appear to be on the verge of being “out of limits”. A machine driven vehicle, its designers and maintainers will always be subject to extremely intense scrutiny.
The failure of a light aircraft is perhaps an even that kills a person or two, absent completely malicious intents. The failure of self-driving car systems have far greater dangers to life, especially on a freeway or on public roadways.
Look, we can’t even trust the average vehicle owner to take his/her car in for oil changes regularly, and everyone knows a person or two who has a car with electrical “gremlins” that either can’t be resolved, or simply haven’t been resolved due to lack of funds. Do you honestly in your heart believe that people are prepared, financially or technically for their vehicle complexity to increase so dramatically? Will the public accept the capital and maintenance costs associated with their driving increasing so dramatically? No. And it is for these reasons that the prophecy of self-driving cars is mostly severe malinvestment, a meme advanced originally by a few social media tech companies, that has unfortunately taken on way too much life and will result in extreme write-downs. There’s lots of cases to be made to substitute technology for human labour, in industry, even self-driving vehicles in open pit oilsands mining, but not for mass market car transportation.
Mark – you never answered my rebuttal to your 2013 arguments… Please quit telling people here that 2013 was the peak.
Plenty of evidence that it was, and even Ross Kay goes on TDN weekly identifying 2Q or 3Q / 2013 as the peak of Canadian RE adjusted for the sales mix. Derived through a completely independent methodology I might add. The Minister of Finance’s (RIP) tightening of CMHC subprime credit marked the peak and shifted the transactional mix substantially and dramatically. The new supply onslaught in the major cities further masked the stagnation, as new, undepreciated units made up a disproportionate volume of the overall transactional mix. Inflation was stopped dead in its tracks as well as the economy decelerated at the same time.
50 cent Loonie here we come?
Politicians are almost as dangerous as Mark’s theories…
Garth – how does the government treat Belfountain since you are only operating there part-time… ;-)
Coming soon to a business location near you… vacant business taxes…
Recent Sale Report/ Realtor Assistance Needed
That’s the GTA covered ,this post reminded me I still haven’t had anyone verify this case yet.
These guys finally met their fate 9 days ago after getting carried away during Spring Fling 2016 paying 1.62 for a house with an assessment of 1.30 at the time.
Were asking 1.35,let’s see what the damage is…
M43BC
493 Shannon Way, Delta paid 1.62 March 2016 ass 1.3 now asking 1.35
May 19:$1,750,000
Aug 10: $1,620,000
Change: – 130000.00 7%
https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/493-shannon-way
https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1Vk1BQg==
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Feel free to make a donation.
Flop For Fox Fund…
http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/
The troubled future of real estate is NOW!
I’m gonna say the house gets over ask. Will the seller accept, who knows? If not then it will be re-listed at a higher price. The low list and holdback for offers is still effective. BUT. Not nearly as often and the bid is not way over the ask like last year (this remark is meant for houses in the core of 416).
Hey Mark. That house was probably $525,000 in 2013.
Your rookie mistake was listening to Ross Kay who said the peak was May 19, 2013.
As a result bond yields went up, the stock market swallowed it and the US dollar declined. All as expected.-GT
/////////////////////
Feds raised rates. This was baked into the markets for weeks. Everyone saw it coming. So why is the US dollar down?
It took 8 years in some markets in the US to return to pre 2008 crash levels. It took a massive injection of money to do so. So when the Canadian housing market fully drops, dragging down construction employment, furniture, vehicles (bought on house equity), restaurants, etc… what can the banks do, or do they care? Will this trigger a domino effect with countries like Australia, Norway, etc. that have seen big housing increases too? Is the drum beat of war their solution to deal with a financial collapse? Diversification is all dandy but with the banks representing so much of the TSX, this will get hit, bonds with increasing rates down too. So based on this, does one over allocate into foreign markets and preferred? stay the course? Wait for home equity to recover (10yrs)?
It’s always fun when Bullies get their whuppin’!
The bigger they are, the harder they Flop!
at the picture!!
I’ve been keeping my eyes on the real estate market because I want to desperately buy. However, I’m not foolish enough to buy yet.
The thing is, the longer I wait, the higher interest rates go up, the harder it’ll be to pass the stress test. Then my dream of owning a home is delayed, yet again.
I’m in my late 20’s, and the last thing I want is to be in my 40s and then finally being able to afford a house. Like by that age I should be close to paying off a mortgage and not just entering G the real estate market.
Garth, when do you suggest I enter the market?
Our boom will come when wcs price recovers, they will see growth surge again and boost economy.
Debt deflation.
Here come the divorces and the suicides.
What a happy little country.
Never let your children get caught up in bidding wars.
People have all sorts of ignorant ideas of what bad parenting is but if you let your kids buy a detached home at the beginning of last year you were a fool.
By this time next year the average 2 year loss on a GTA detached home will be 50%. I guarantee your children will never recover.
“My question is this; if housing crashes significantly, the economy may be impacted as well. Therefore a portion of my (hopefully) diversified, balanced portfolio will decline. Am I stupid to think that there is a chance my portfolio will decline in value more than the houses we would be looking for?”
That “could” be the case, but there is ample historic precedent for the stock market, the TSE/TSX at least, to have negative correlation to the housing market. When the housing market does very poorly, the stock market tends to do better. And vice versa (ie: what we’ve seen over the past 16 years mainly in the post-Nortel collapse era).
In the early 1990s, a mere downpayment, invested in a balanced portfolio, with particular weighting to either the TSE/TSE or the S&P500 at the time, was good enough, a decade later, to buy a house outright in cash. Without a mortgage. At a fairly attractive price which, in hindsight, provided for some fairly vigorous capital gains in the subsequent 15 years until the 2013 peak.
So if you can wait and take advantage of the extreme discrepancy in valuation between the stock market, particularly the TSX (P/E = 15), and the Canadian housing market (P/E somewhere around 45, far worse in Toronto/Vancouver), an appropriately invested downpayment is likely to go a long ways in terms of future purchasing power in housing.
Since we’re already a good 4-5 years into the stagnation, it might not even take a decade to resolve much of the valuation discrepancy. Which implies quite rapid movements in both stock and housing prices over the next few years.
#147 Old Ron the Realtor on 03.21.18 at 10:14 am
<i<Oh the dreaded time of year. Tax Day, T- 41 and counting.
Geez bring in a revenue neutral flat tax already. Exempt the first $15k to $20 k for everyone, then set the appropriate % on all other income over that threshold.
Sorry Garth. I realize that the “Tax Avoidance, and Tax Deferment” industries employ a lot of accountants, and even financial planners, but a 10 minute tax return would be a blessing for the rest of us.
Of course it will never happen in my lifetime, so I will put my rant away until next tax season.
*******************
If I’m not mistaken, Garth has said that he pushed for a flat tax while in office.
I wish I had bully offers for my things… You have to wonder why was so much money available for someone so hopelessly financially illiterate. But then again, so many are on the happy side of this deal, banks, real estate agent, lawyers… Maybe he will get a mega bully offer and make us all look like fools…
so why did the CAD blast off today?
Hey garth whatever happened with the panama papers don’t hear anybody diddling with that
Prices are still scorching hot in Central Toronto and houses sell within days – well over the asking price. The inner burbs have taken the biggest hit – etobicoke, north york, Scarborough etc.
I don’t see these Fed forecasts coming true.
Rise, after rise, after rise they say. How can this be? Q1 GDP growth is constantly being downgraded (now at 1.9% says Atlanta Fed, guaranteed to fall further). U6 unemployment, although falling, is still sky high in the states Trump won.
They raise today and what happens? USD index absolutely hits the toilet. Pushing a 3.5 year low and on the verge of seriously cracking. How does any of this make sense?
It makes sense because the US passed from 20 to 21 trillion in debt in record time. Going parabolic.
Trump wants insane deficits without understanding that sometime very soon, the creditors are going to turn off the tap. Exactly how long can the US keep functioning on their rapidly growing $21t pile of dog poo?
Not long. Gold up 20+ today. Bond yields rising. Stock market about to crack (basically been doing so since the last business day of January). USD index heading much lower.
This time, unlike 2000 and 2007, if the Fed wants QE4, they only have 1.5% to work with and the market will see right though it. No more nonsense and kicking the can down the road.
Hmmm …. selling one year later … must have been a family tragedy.
“It makes sense because the US passed from 20 to 21 trillion in debt in record time. Going parabolic.” – Ian
Have you not heard? Debts no longer matter … it seems the Fed will backstop any market crash with more EZ money.
The key phrase is “ 92% of the time”. Well, this isn’t 92% of the time, this is the other 8% of the time. Am I the only one who remembers this : 2002: The currency hits a record low of 61.98 cents (U.S.) on Jan. 18, 2002. I’m calling you out Turner. I’ve got a bag of mice that says the Loonie will tank before the pigs get slaughtered. And our exporters will love it. Stop scaring the children will ya ?
BAHAHAHHAHAhahahha
The GTA is CRASHING so hard it is not even funny. Values are losing hundreds of thousands of dollars. You dirty useless SHYSTERS have ruined so many lives. You SHYSTERS are not qualified for a minimum wage job.
“#9 NotLegalAdvice on 03.21.18 at 6:05 pm
I’ve been keeping my eyes on the real estate market because I want to desperately buy. However, I’m not foolish enough to buy yet.
The thing is, the longer I wait, the higher interest rates go up, the harder it’ll be to pass the stress test. Then my dream of owning a home is delayed, yet again.
I’m in my late 20’s, and the last thing I want is to be in my 40s and then finally being able to afford a house. Like by that age I should be close to paying off a mortgage and not just entering G the real estate market.
Garth, when do you suggest I enter the market?”
LOL!! Hilarious!! That is exactly what I thought In my late 20’s… I found a bunch of blogs to read that supported my point of view (VHB, The Pope, Real Estate Talks). I decided to wait and now I’m 42… Still waiting… Except now my money is worth nothing… LOL!! Good Luck…
I agree with Garth that Toronto hit “peak house” last year
Good on sellers
Sorry for buyers
And just goes to show governments can print money up the wazoo with no concen for debt levels but for the mere mortals under them, how do you dare get in over your heads!!!!
And guess who is going to PAY for all of this again while the 1% sit back and laugh getting bailed out yet again? YOU reading this.
Democracy in action once again.
This is happening because the Fed believes modest economic growth will be sustained, almost everybody who wants a job will have one and the Republican tax cuts will fuel it all.
This is a war on Trump, pure and simple. The FED did diddly squat when the chosen one was on the throne, and kept rates at 0 so a crash wouldn’t happen during the savior’s reign. Now that he is out the door, they want to bring the roof down on the deplorables, and don’t care if it takes some of their own ilk down with it.
Historically, a tightening cycle always brings about a market correction, followed by a rate drop. A little birdie told me we will have the former, but not the latter this time. Hedge accordingly. Go heavy on the preferreds and easy on bonds and etfs for the next two years.
It’s just an ugly half-century-old bung on 55 feet of uninspired dirt in the worky East End. But when it went up for sale eleven months ago, realtor Dan was surprised.
Thus did 125 Applefield, Toronto, change hands. It has been listed for $849,900, and sold for $890,000. With double land transfer tax the bully bidder shelled out almost $920,000. Yes, peak house.
Peak house in Toronto was 11 months ago already?
Damn, time flies
Please quit telling people here that 2013 was the peak.
He’s just trolling for a response. That’s what got Chris banned from RFD
Mark gets a lot of things wrong but he’s bang on about self driving cars.
In order for those cars to function without killing people the regulatory regime will have to be extreme. After x amount of hours they will have to be taken in and checked/calibrated otherwise the on board software will shut the car down. Records will have to be meticulously kept to ensure all systems are go to ensure liability standards are met.
Many people can’t afford/don’t care to do routine maintenance now. Self driving cars are decades away.
PS- They’ll have to pry the steering wheel of my HEMI Challenger out of my cold dead hands.
Why the F**k are the people who are running Kelowna not giving a rats a$$ about the very local people who live and work and pay taxes in that town?
Kelowna is stealing the show in legislature as Carol James is not backing down, yet the mayor vows to overturn the spec tax for Kelowna. Westcorp is threatening of pulling their 300 million dollar mega tower where the Willow used to be – best strip club around until it closed for residential development.
Yeah, we really need 1.5M condo flats mixed with trump tower like hotel rooms. And over 58% foreign pre sale purchases on it?
Kelowna is becoming worse than Vancouver.
Andrew Wilkinson is holding his town hall there.
Why don’t you move there Andrew? The last area that cares about Liberal and once they figure out what is going on with the corruption moving into town it wont be long until the entire province pukes upon hearing anything Liberal.
https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/221302/Town-hall-on-new-taxes
$C weak and didn’t decline because FED hike already baked in
everybody knows hikes are on the docket
inflation is healthy and no deflation anywhere
toronto detached home prices down from “peak house” in 2017 but condos still doing well
$US all day every day
you’re welcome!
One for the books: a leading liberal constitutional lawyer agree with Trump.
– Trump is right: The special counsel should never have been appointed
http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/379372-trump-is-right-the-special-counsel-should-never-have-been-appointed
KLNR on 03.21.18 at 5:11 pm
strange, in my hood of sunnylea seems mostly everything that comes to market is selling quickly wether its a 900k bung or a 2+mil rebuild. location location i guess?
__________________________________
No you dirty SHYSTER its just your made up story. You idiots are not qualified to shine shoes. Dirty SHYSTERS just make up stories backed by fiction.
oh yeah, gold price still gone nowhere in 6 years
this is why gold bugs are poor
lol
@ Not Legal #17:
As rates go up, house prices go down.
Get yourself a mortgage calculator, and fgure out the price of your dream home.
Now run some scenarios:
1. What are the monthlies at current price, and current rates?
2. What are the monthlies at 80% of the current price, and rates 1% point higher than current interest rates?
3. What are the monthlies at 64% of the current price, and rates 2% points higher than current interest rates?
4. What are the monthlies at 52% of the current price, and rates 3% points higher than current interest rates?
You’re welcome.
In the mean time, keep saving: the more you save, the larger your down payment will be, which will lower your monthly mortgage payment even further!
Getting out of Canada. I will not fight for this country, I will not vote in this country, I will not serve for free on a jury. I’m off all the lists.
Yes I still pay 60% of every dollar I earn in taxes.
Did you need a another reason? Go ahead, nail me. Kick me out. I’ll walk back in and get money, care and housing.
My conscience is so clear I can think. 3 times? Praying I’m reincarnated as a “minority” so I get real rights. I’m not fighting for this. Even t3rr0ri$ts get payouts and invited to State dinners here.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/french-sudbury-drunk-driver-charges-dropped-1.4586140
Impaired charges against Sudbury man stayed because police didn’t speak to him in French
…was arrested back in July 2016 with three times the legal limit of alcohol in his blood.
***”The Constitution is in place to protect minorities. It’s not there to protect the majority,” says Lepage. “I can understand why the judge came to his decision, and I can understand why many people won’t be happy with it.”***
Uncle Garth keeps telling you this.
– More evidence that it’s very hard to ‘beat the market’ over time, 95% of finance professionals can’t do it
http://www.aei.org/publication/more-evidence-that-its-very-hard-to-beat-the-market-over-time-95-of-financial-professionals-cant-do-it/
Anyone interested in moving to Kelowna?
The average price of a decent single home in Kelowna is creeping up to 800K as showing on realtor. Gee, I wonder why sales are stalling?
When asked about affordability Gregor’s prototype up in Kelowna has this to say:
“We know that it is a major issue but we also know that this speculation tax as proposed may not have the desired impact and in fact will be further detrimental to our community in terms of economic impact, it will be a disaster.”
What about the tech push? I thought the whole city was turning into a San Francisco tech hub. Now the truth comes out. Liberal backed washing machine.
Primary occupation up there is snow washing via pre-sales that will have that coal harbor feel to it.
Of course Rush has a song about this….
RED BARCHETTA
My uncle has a country place, that no-one knows about
He says it used to be a farm, before the Motor Law
Sundays I elude the ‘Eyes’, and hop the Turbine Freight
To far outside the Wire, where my white-haired uncle waits
Jump to the ground
As the Turbo slows to cross the borderline
Run like the wind
As excitement shivers up and down my spine
Down in his barn
My uncle preserved for me an old machine –
For fifty-odd years
To keep it as new has been his dearest dream
I strip away the old debris, that hides a shining car
A brilliant red Barchetta, from a better, vanished time
Fire up the willing engine, responding with a roar!
Tires spitting gravel, I commit my weekly crime…
Wind in my hair –
Shifting and drifting –
Mechanical music
Adrenalin surge –
Well-weathered leather
Hot metal and oil
The scented country air
Sunlight on chrome
The blur of the landscape
Every nerve aware
Suddenly ahead of me, across the mountainside
A gleaming alloy air-car shoots towards me, two lanes wide
I spin around with shrieking tires, to run the deadly race
Go screaming through the valley as another joins the chase
Drive like the wind
Straining the limits of machine and man
Laughing out loud
With fear and hope, I’ve got a desperate plan
At the one-lane bridge
I leave the giants stranded
At the riverside
Race back to the farm
To dream with my uncle
At the fireside…
#23 Suede on 03.21.18 at 6:22 pm
so why did the CAD blast off today?
……
My Tin foil theory.
Dude to be nameless who makes billions trading forex. Same dude controls the narative feed to us by MSM and progressive fakes. A fake news story about Nafta today.
Saying USA drops 50 % auto content demands in Nafta Talks. Which makes nafta look do able. Hence giving the nameless person a chance to pound hard on the long bet USDCAD
Forex is not for amateurs and boy scouts. Only the depraved and evil minds can make a go at it.
Look for quick reversal.
Record Canadian Debt Red Flagged – Hilliard Macbeth
http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/record-canadian-debt-red-flagged-hilliard-macbeth/
#6 Rexx Rock
“Unbelievable,Canada may just give up interests rate increases and let our currency tank.Wouldn’t be the first time.”
Of course they will. I expect maximum one out of every two US rate hikes get mirrored in Canada, maybe even one in three. This country and its Central Bank love free money and have every excuse in the book to keep the party going. They have no interest at all (no pun intended) in doing what’s right. And yes Garth they certainly do have a choice and they have exercised that choice for the last 20 years.
I woke up feeling odd and out of place, like I was supposed to be somewhere else. Today was the first time in six months or more that the cat didn’t wake me, my alarm didn’t wake me, and my phone didn’t wake me. I looked at my phone to find zero notifications.This has never, ever happened. I spent the first half hour of my day pondering whether I was a in a time-freeze.
Hey Colin:
Why was Diamond Mountain Development axed. You protecting those house values around North Glenmore, Wilden and Quail Ridge?
Affected by odour, dust and noise from the massive dump right in the middle of all the new suburbs spreading out? Nice excuse. At least somebody admits the truth on the gagging dump smell that goes through the UBC grounds, Wilden and Quail Ridge (best time is in the summer heat to get a real whiff), but you won’t ever see it in a real estate ad. Nope, according to them a dump that is being raised 400 more feet is the best thing to live beside.
It is like having a toilet connected to your bed. It is right there.
So, instead of 800 plus new homes around 500k per pop, the developer is moving ahead with what does not have to be approved by council, which is 17, 10-acre multi million dollar properties…good job Kelowna.
We know what this decision was based on. Protecting home values in Wilden, Glenmore, Quail, Dilworth.
Keep pretending you care about affordability.
But heaven forbid if one of those foreign funded towers gets cancelled where we can start getting the price per square foot up to $1,000. Yep, in a town of 100k. Nice work.
And here is what Gregor the second Basran has to say:
“I really want the city to know that we are committed to try and find ways to make housing more available and affordable for our local residents,” Basran said.
Yep, every home to 2 million dollars and beyond.
What is next – you are going to get homelessness down to zero? The Vancouver Model.
https://www.kelownacapnews.com/news/kelowna-council-dumps-diamond-mountain-development-proposal/
“Well, kids, the government isn’t running this show. The CBers are.
…
Governments – who allowed the bubble to inflate…”
—
Which one is then?
If “the CBers run the show”, don’t they also “allow” or actually directly create the bubble to inflate, with the artificially low interest rate that exists only to stabilize the crisis, what the financial industry created?
Low rates were not alone in creating demand, but they sure helped. A myriad of pro-real estate policies allowed full bubble status to develop. – Garth
A couple of interesting moves. Old girlfriend of mine listed their detached Brampton house last September for 800K. Finally sold for 625K closing in April. Already bought a comparable house in Casselman 30 minutes S.E. of Ottawa for 147K.
Her oldest son had a house in Oakville which he sold at peak of market last spring for 1.4 million, netting 850K clear. He moved to Russell, 20 minutes south of Ottawa buying a 3 storey new build on large lot for 327K.
GTA prices are madness will punish many participants.
I agree with the stress test. If you can’t carry the house at 2 percent more, then you cannot afford it. End of story.
It took 8 years in some markets in the US to return to pre 2008 crash levels. It took a massive injection of money to do so. So when the Canadian housing market fully drops, dragging down construction employment, furniture, vehicles (bought on house equity), restaurants, etc… what can the banks do, or do they care? Will this trigger a domino effect with countries like Australia, Norway, etc. that have seen big housing increases too? Is the drum beat of war their solution to deal with a financial collapse? Diversification is all dandy but with the banks representing so much of the TSX, this will get hit, bonds with increasing rates down too. So based on this, does one over allocate into foreign markets and preferred? stay the course? Wait for home equity to recover (10yrs)?
————
It took 10 years for some US cities to recover under emergency rates. Some haven’t, after the global financial meltdown. When Canadian RE crashes, the US FED doesn’t care and will continue to tighten and we follow 92% of the time. Therefore it may be a dark 2 decades ala Japan to recover RE prices, if at all. That or a 40 cent loonie, and as Garth pointed out, BoC cares about our currency and inflation, not RE.
The never ending gravy train.
This is going to go on forever.
Plan B is to become a BC mayor after.
Feeling very smug that 208k would pay out the note on my house. Twice.
Smoking man insight very good! Careful what cause you assign event. USD reversal to come. Overall big trend up
Mike Martins…you tubers!
Mike Martins here.
Living the dream in Merritt, BC.
78.98% of the traffic coming through on the #1 highway is money launderers heading up to Lake City Casino now that the lower mainland casinos are being scrutinized. They might even be going further to Calgary.
Ever see a Porche 911 on the Coquihalla Pass with a “N” sticker on it in the winter getting blasted by rocks?
Common sight all winter long. The license plate frames have dealership names from Vancouver on them.
Can’t let a little highway rock slinging get in the way of moving money.
This is having a very positive impact on BC tourism as gas and food are consumed in moving the hundreds of pounds of fresh street cash.
Do you know how much 1 million dollars in $20 bills weigh?
With the price of gas approaching $1.60 here in BC, that is a couple of pounds in $20 bills right there just to fill the tank.
40 Andrew Woburn on 03.21.18 at 6:46 pm
follow the money!
WASHINGTON — In September, as the first detailed evidence surfaced of Russia’s hijacking of social media in the 2016 election, Irina V. Kaverzina, one of about 80 Russians working on the project in St. Petersburg, emailed a family member with some news.
“We had a slight crisis here at work: the F.B.I. busted our activity (not a joke),” she wrote of the project in Russia. “So, I got preoccupied with covering tracks together with the colleagues.” She added, “I created all these pictures and posts, and the Americans believed that it was written by their people.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/16/us/politics/russia-mueller-election.html
#3 TWOM
Lol I always laugh at these comments.
Toronto real estate is not going down, and you are waiting in vain. This is regardless of what your portfolio does.
MF
“This is what makes politicians so dangerous.”
So wait, politicians are dangerous, but a group of economists who believe that an economy can be centrally managed are not?
Nonsense. The idea that a group of a few people can guide and manage a complex adaptive system of the scale of an economy is preposterous. It is a relic of Soviet-era command-and-control thinking.
The Fed is a meddler as well, and low interest rate policies may have played a key role in a number of asset bubbles (e.g., the US housing bubble).
If you crack open an economics textbook they will generally deride centralized planning, EXCEPT for a rather marked silence when it comes to monetary policy.
“#23 Suede on 03.21.18 at 6:22 pm
so why did the CAD blast off today?”
Higher interest rates depreciate currencies by causing an increase in debt service costs. They also imply an expansion of the monetary issuance as money must be conjured into existence to repay debts incurred in the past.
Hence, higher rates = higher inflation, and a lower currency.
The people who think that money dumbly chases the highest nominal rates are completely and utterly wrong, and should really lose their 4th grade understanding of economics. Its a theory that might work on a small signal basis, if trading alongside a bunch of similarly dumb people (ie: never bet against stupid people!!), but its spectacularly wrong in the longer term. Japan, Switzerland, etc., the strongest currencies in the world, are great examples. High rate currencies depreciate, and the higher rates are required to compensate the lender for the depreciation.
#2 KLNR on 03.21.18 at 5:11 pm
Follow the closing dates.
You see how smooth I am.
I can get away with anything and still keep my job.
Nobody can do finance like me.
I run this country! You report to me citizen.
Well, Capt. Serious is not making the playoffs this year. Sad!
https://www.tsn.ca/mackinnon-avalanche-cruise-past-blackhawks-5-1-1.1033143
On another note, I’m not sure a bunch of commentators here understand what correlation is. Odd.
Mark gets a lot of things wrong but he’s bang on about self driving cars.
In order for those cars to function without killing people the regulatory regime will have to be extreme.
Seems pessimistic. Human drivers kill people daily. We just need to get over the expectation a driverless car will never kill a human. They will, but usually because the human is doing something stupid like walking a bike across a road instead of at a cross-walk. I mean, in Canada there were 1858 motor vehicle related fatalities in 2015. Lots of people are being killed by or in cars today.
Yeah it’s scary over for Canadian real estate. Sell and buy US equities. VFV. Don’t buy the TSX or Europe tho – if history is any guide they’ll lag the S&P500 significantly over the long term. Why do Canadians think it will be any different this time? Guess what? It’s not.
trump:putin?
sarkozy:Gaddafi’?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/21/nicolas-sarkozy-former-president-back-in-police-custody-over-libya-case
Global News: You are confusing us Carol, what exactly are you doing with BC real estate.
Carol James: We are going to smash house prices and allow equity in homes to evaporate so that BC residents can live under water.
Global News: You are confusing us Carol, what exactly are you doing with BC real estate.
Carol James: Do you own a home? If so, you pay, dearly. Got it?
Global News: Okay, we are totally confused, we are going to have to round up some BC mayors who can better explain things.
I’m feeling a little more paranoid today than usual.
How does the government in BC and Toronto think that taxing housing can make it more affordable? And these are not small taxes they are implementing, they are the sort of taxes that screw up your retirement plans.
I have a friend who bought a new house in BC some years ago (so, tradesmen from the area had a job! Yay!) with the intent of using as a weekend home until he retired and then selling his Calgary home and moving to BC. But now he’s trying to sell because he can’t afford the 2% carry tax on his planned retirement home. The money has to come straight from what he was saving for retirement.
Used to be that you could consider retiring in Mexico but of course now you would be stuck behind the wall with a bunch of drug lords, so that isn’t a very good idea anymore either.
And now we have carbon taxes popping up everywhere. This is the most disingenuous idea ever floated by lying, corrupt politicians anywhere. Canadians are already taxed so much that they certainly do look at the mileage sticker on a car window before they buy it. They don’t need more incentive. Farmers need so much diesel to run their tractors and there isn’t much you can do about efficiency there. They also need electricity to run their irrigation pumps and again there is not much they can do to improve that equation. So we all have to just pay this tax. But what’s worse is that it targets rich and poor alike with about the same fixed annual tax. It’s like a pole tax. Are you alive? That’ll be $3000 a year (or more). But it’s for your own good.
The most dastardly think about carbon taxes is that we have no choice but to use fossil fuels at present. All the other alternatives are intermittent or prone to leaking highly toxic radiation. You can’t run a modern economy on something like wind that only blows 30% of the time. Sure, it the old days we had wheat mills and saw mills powered by wind but they only cut logs when the wind is blowing and they only cut them as fast as the wind is blowing that day.
So we are in a situation where the government is attempting to tax everything we have, limit our energy supplies, raise the cost of food, and leave us with nothing.
Meanwhile western governments seem hell bent on villainizing Russia for attacking Britain by delivering a cargo of LNG when they were running out of gas. The Americans just shot up 200 Russians in Syria with attack helicopters. What the hell are the Americans doing in Syria? Fighting terrorists? That’s what the Russians are doing too so why shoot them up? Meanwhile the Russians have basically, as politely as they can, said “the gloves are off” and they are going to start shooting back. Yikes. Perhaps we don’t have long to worry about economic problems.
Official results released on Monday showed the three polling stations in Ust-Djeguta had an average turnout of 81.5% and delivered a majority for Putin of 89.86%. National turnout was 67%, according to the central election commission.
people voting more than once
Reuters reporters also used mechanical counters to count everybody who cast a ballot at 12 polling stations. In some places, the discrepancies between the official count and the Reuters tally were small, but in nine of the 12 polling stations the discrepancies were 10% or greater.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/21/they-could-be-twins-photos-appear-to-show-russians-voting-twice-in-putin-election
The USD going down after a US rate increase is NOT the expected behavior. The reason it did is only because of positive news about NAFTA.
Re: Today’s blog photo
Coin toss as to who calls 9-11 first and where do they end up via prioritization….
…at veterinarian? or hospital?
Global News: Hi Doug, nice to see you in this dusty area. I didn’t realize air quality advisories were being issued this time of the year – isn’t it during the entire summer where air quality reaches Beijing levels?
Doug Findlater: Next question.
Global News: What is the vacancy rate in Kelowna / W. Kelowna.
Doug Findlater: I have no idea. But I can tell you this is the best place on earth to live.
Global News: What do you think of the spec tax.
Doug: Things are bad since Christy left. We need a real leader like Andrew to take over. We are going to use shiny photo paper for the letter we are drafting. We will also be calling you every day to keep pushing the narrative and change the minds of BCers on the current government.
OMREB is reporting they have no authority anymore in directing the province and were not consulted on these latest tax measures.
Hopefully it does NOT get to the point where we get all of developer buddies together and shut down all construction in BC to show the people who really runs this province.
If I’m not mistaken, Garth has said that he pushed for a flat tax while in office.
_____________________________________
PLEASE GARTH! Run for PM. Make Canada great again. After the Damage caused by dumb (Harper) and Dumber (T2) Canada needs you. You have a good group of guys at the office who can hold it down while you save Canada from all the political idiots from Harper to T2 to , Wynne, Mike Harras ….well you get the point almost everyone. Come on PM Turner.
And give up this blog? Are you insane? – Garth
Self-driving cars … About 37,000 people die on US roads each year. That’s over 100 people each day! The cause of the vast majority of accidents is driver error. Soon it will be a threat to public safety to have humans drive – period. I’d much rather put my life in the hands of a computer than a texting or drunk driver or even the average idiot that’s concentrating on driving.
Further, our tax dollars actually are hurting women’s rights. After a lifetime in Toronto there now are
no-go areas especially at night. As a man. As a woman….don’t even think about going near there.
M42ON.
It turns out, the last US election was not rigged by the Russians after all, it was the fight between Facebook big data and Google big data.
Google’s Eric Schmidt, the main stream data guy openly joined the Hillary campaign, trying to mobilize low-paid millennials. His plan, published by Wikileak, showed astonishing lack of imagination, he clearly lost all the innovative edge since the CIA and other 3-letter agencies got embedded into Google “analytics”.
Bannon picked for Trump Facebook for data source in the presidential big data battle and a pink haired nerd with a nose ring to mine data. They had a low-cost, low profile, highly automated guerilla operation, under British flag, that might result in the crucifixion of FB CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, who not too long ago was floated as potential future Democratic candidate for the presidency. The FB CFO was also oriented for potential political stardom for the same party, she might be saved by belonging to a different gender.
If Hillary won, we would not know any of it – like many other things, that comes to surface only because she lost. At least, we would not know it as a scandal.
After all, none of this is new, it is just pretended to be.
Those with better memories still remember that the Obama victory at the time was greatly attributed to “skillfully utilizing social media”. Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters openly talked on camera in an interview about “Obama’s database that includes everyone” as the foundation of future electoral race victories. This was before the Snowden revelation of transforming the US into a wholesale 24/7 surveillance state.
We even had a mainstream Hollywood movie about political fixers working with exactly the same playbook (Our Brand is Crisis) that is causing the outrage now, as if it was invented just to torpedo the Clinton victory.
Nobody was complaining while they were drunk on RE profit from Bully Government Fraudulent Stimulus to buy votes etc.
Now when Government gets honest and tries to correct the sins of the predecessors, all of a sudden they are communists?
I want to join the Politburo all of a sudden.
That’s where the honest people are.
All of the above is just labeling.
The truth is the capitalist system was hijacked by cronies and fraudsters.
Let the crash begin and crash hard! I am all for it!
“Because everyone is so in debt and has no money”
Well, technically (the article proves the third age, delusia is here) money is debt, including the green stuff, and the yellow stuff is worthless unless promises of more are made, so I would say everybody has tons of money. In their imagination.
Everyone could have only wheelbarrows of money, if someone took all the debt and printed the IOUs (it is called nationalization, and those who are known to do it are called commies), but that would take decades even if the printers would somehow run during a crunch.
Non # 71,
“Meanwhile western governments seem hell bent on villainizing Russia for attacking Britain by delivering a cargo of LNG when they were running out of gas.”
“The Americans just shot up 200 Russians in Syria with attack helicopters. What the hell are the Americans doing in Syria? Fighting terrorists? That’s what the Russians are doing too so why shoot them up?”
“Meanwhile the Russians have basically, as politely as they can, said “the gloves are off” and they are going to start shooting back. Yikes. Perhaps we don’t have long to worry about economic problems.”
——————————
They want conflict? There will be conflict, goddamnit.
Just need to have the idiots on board, first.
Gotta feed the machine…Arseholes…
Corrections are cleansing and healthy.
We must learn from this, sadly our weak and passive electorate will not do anything to stem CMHC manipulation.
Interest rate manipulation.
All the tools in the incumbent election toolbox.
Fraud by our government.
Let’s not mince words.
“More proof that bullies never win.”
That doesn’t bode well for Trump.
If you must buy Canadian equities buy XIT
Driverless cars will save lives in the tens of thousands.
The mental midgets will scream murder when one person dies because of a driverless car.
The technology will be fantastic and unstoppable.
I can’t wait to get the idiots off of the road!
Dear Happy Housing Crash Everyone!
I am rooting for a housing crash like you, yet I do see a lot of SOLD signs. However, there are a few listings that are not moving. There is one house that had open houses for the last month and I expect to see another this weekend. Keep up the anger and venom, I look forward to reading your high octane posts…
#46 Swamp Creatures Move Into Kelowna on 03.21.18 at 6:56 pm
Going to be interesting to see what happens with prices of condo’s and cottages at Big White, Silver Star and those summer developments along Westside Road in particular LaCasa. Suspect there will be a tonne of For Sale signs going up. Happy to have dumped my cottage up there a year and a half ago at peak. Saw the writing on the wall.
#17 NotLegalAdvice on 03.21.18 at 6:05 pm
I’ve been keeping my eyes on the real estate market because I want to desperately buy. However, I’m not foolish enough to buy yet.
The thing is, the longer I wait, the higher interest rates go up, the harder it’ll be to pass the stress test. Then my dream of owning a home is delayed, yet again.
I’m in my late 20’s, and the last thing I want is to be in my 40s and then finally being able to afford a house. Like by that age I should be close to paying off a mortgage and not just entering G the real estate market.
Garth, when do you suggest I enter the market?
*********************************************
Sounds like you really want to get going on ownership. Go for it! If you think the market is going to crash 20%, just offer 20% less on that house you really like. The worst hing that can happen is they will say no. And you might get a winner.
Or you can take #43 Smartalox ‘s advice and do the math.
Or both. But no one ever said you have to buy at asking price. Go make a few insulting offers and see what happens!
#19 Reality is stark on 03.21.18 at 6:11 pm
“Debt deflation.
Here come the divorces…….”
A veritable economic shambles which seriously downgrades quality of life as the masses continue to gorge deliriously on debt.
Banks have increased the breaking power on lending by factoring in this social fallout as well as separation, alimony and child support in assessing borrowers’ profiles. The majority has no money.
The jig is definitely up.
Hey, Applefield, just south of Scarborough Town Centre, I know it well…my Grey Dog stays on a street just off Applefield when we go on vacation. Borders on Thompson Park in Scarborough where the Ford’s host Fordfest (free food) -you’ll never catch me there, Ribfest is there every August Long Weekend…there is always a sighting of Grey Dog there.
Real families live in that hood. Don’t judge a book by its cover.
Friend taught at Woburn Collegiate…excellent public schools. Very Multicultural all determined to succeed! Our very good friends have lived there since 1980, paid $70k. Their municipal land taxes last time it was talked about was well under 3k/year! All the amenities the burbs have to offer.
@#77 Jack
“Self-driving cars … About 37,000 people die on US roads each year. That’s over 100 people each day! The cause of the vast majority of accidents is driver error.”
+++++
Yep.
Thinkin the same thing when I heard that a person jaywalking in Arizona was killed by a self driving car ( that had a human driver at the wheel).
Im sure the entire thing was captured on video.
And after personally dealing with near misses with pedestrians, bicycle riders at night wearing black clothes, no lights, etc.
I’d say self driving cars……. after logging millions of accident free miles……are the way of the future…..
#54 Lefty on 03.21.18 at 7:20 pm
A couple of interesting moves. Old girlfriend of mine listed their detached Brampton house last September for 800K. Finally sold for 625K closing in April. Already bought a comparable house in Casselman 30 minutes S.E. of Ottawa for 147K.
Her oldest son had a house in Oakville which he sold at peak of market last spring for 1.4 million, netting 850K clear. He moved to Russell, 20 minutes south of Ottawa buying a 3 storey new build on large lot for 327K.
GTA prices are madness will punish many participants.
————————————————————–
Smart people. Just think of all those people who bought at peak prices who will be subsidizing other people’s retirement and improved lifestyles.
Warning: rant ahead
So – we squeaked out just in time selling two houses last year to pay off all debts & fund one 4 plex build on our own – mostly – had to borrow $130 through a private lender – broker fees are higher than the monthly payments…thats for another rant (but yes we signed because no one else will back our self employed asses)
Now we are closing in on finishing this lovely build (kept the shell of the historic home, big trees, downtown location) to move into one unit and rent 3 others but can we get any financing – a ‘real mortgage’? Hells to the no! Downsizing and using our sweat and blood and money to essentially build 4 rental condos and can we get a measly $150 000 mortgage?- nope. Here’s what actually drives me nuts – any person with ‘a good job’ can buy some overpriced, buiders special, marble coated McMansion on steriods, (with no potential return as far as renting), a location at least 75 traffic filled minutes from everywhere and just get an easy approval – but any day they could lose that job. We eat what we kill with our bare hands and have excellent credit – will have a healthy supplemented income just on the rentals (after a projected mortgage and while living in a unit ourselves) and nooooooo mortgage for us sorry losers!. Its ok. I’m fine, its all gonna work out. But imagine all the panic, the angst and the little horror stories going on out there as regs tighten, debt looms ever larger and the market slips away….yeah, yeah, what Garth said.
I forgot this earlier, but something else for you dogs to consider…
Don’t forget the Fed Chairperson political cycle. It’s way under-discussed, and is way huge.
Yellen didn’t raise during 16 because she was told to make Hillary win. Orange hair wins, and she can’t even wait until Inauguration Day to start raising.
What do you think brand new Republican nominated Powell will do? Raise rates 8 times? Um no. He’s going to help his good friend Orange Hair.
Give me stock market damage, declining GDP growth estimates, and any other negative bs before June, and you can FORGET any further US rate rises in 18. Powell / Trump factor.
Unless there’s another level of game going on I’m not in tune with yet…
Mark’s right about the 172 price thing; I worked for a Cessna dealer in the late 70’s and the 152 wasn’t much more money than a Trans Am in 1978…and the used AC market resembled a smaller “used car” enviornment.
It was the MASSIVE amounts of liability insurance that the GA manufacturers’ were forced to carry on their products (Beech, Piper, Cessna, etc) that drove the MSRP through the roof starting in 1980. This was due in part to several hi-profile lawsuits brought against those companies for alleged complicity in fatal accidents; due to (again) allegedly faulty manufacturing processes.
I don’t remember any of those suits succeeding, (most of the crashes turned out to result from weather and/or pilot error) but the insurance industry took note and the prices spiralled upward from there…along with the price of ownership, insurance, cost of training, etc.
I didn’t get thru Wichita again until ’96, and GA production-wise it was almost a ghost town.
Only good thing to come outta this was that Instructor pay started to rise, tho that took a few years! Talk about an underpaid profession…
Bytor, thanx fer the lyrics…by strange coincidence, I was bangin’ that exact riff out this am, annoying the cats and (apparently) the neighbours. Tomorrow, some Stampeders’ licks haha
And give up this blog? Are you insane? – Garth
If you win, you can allow yourself to keep the blog.
Much more useful than Trudeau’s socks social media virtue signalling. Canada can also stop worrying that you show up in Washington with your sidekick dressed as Iroquois.
You can hire Steven Harper part-time to moderate the blog if you get too busy making deals with Trump.
Yo Sir Garth:
Is this your antipodean twin brother ?
Google: Australian Senator Derryn Hinch
Remarkable!
Steve O
#79 akashic record on 03.21.18 at 8:21 pm
This was before the Snowden revelation of transforming the US into a wholesale 24/7 surveillance state.
Well honestly they’re pretty terrible at that given how many days the Austin bomber ran amok.
Core Toronto has not softened at all to my surprise given how I thought B20 would impact affordability. Are people buying at ridiculous prices today:
A- Wealthier than others
B- Stupider
C- Have rich parents
D- All of the above
I’m going with C on this one based on the fact many of the people I see at open houses have not started shaving yet, but apparently can afford $1.5 Million semi’s.
Math
Diamond Mountain Shut Down
Seriously? How dumb are you? You think a bunch of ‘rich’ people are going to buy 10 acre ‘expensive’ homes overlooking the dump in Kelowna???? What a moron.
@ 54 Lefty…RE in Russel/vars going cheap.
1. Have you ever been 20-30 south of Ottawa?
2. I spent a week in Vars one night!
#94 hamsterwheelie
If I catch your drift..not unusual.
Fellow I knew was a framer…the banksters(banksturds) were not interested in him building a home using his skills.
…..they were focussed on him having an income and hiring others to build his home .
#99 Capt. Serious on 03.21.18 at 9:36 pm
#79 akashic record on 03.21.18 at 8:21 pm
This was before the Snowden revelation of transforming the US into a wholesale 24/7 surveillance state.
Well honestly they’re pretty terrible at that given how many days the Austin bomber ran amok.
—
That’s actually the only glimpse of hope when it comes to surveillance.
Growing human incompetence and imperfection in trying to operate increasingly complex systems.
AI won’t make the same mistakes, unfortunately.
This simply isn’t true.
Houses in E01, E02 and E03 and routinely selling for 20-30% above asking, and the going rate for a 3 bed, 2 bath semi detached with parking is once again above $1 million in each of those areas.
Prices are way up over the past 60 days and are once again approaching March/April 2017 prices.
Good luck finding a home right now as a first time buyer looking in Toronto. Most houses are getting double digit offers and condos across the city continue to set new record prices.
“the cost of money is plodding higher and now governments – who allowed the bubble to inflate – have chosen the worst moment possible to prove they can push everyone around.”
Let’s see in the bubblicious places if was…
The BC Lieberal/Social Credit/right wing conservative COALITION in BC.
The right wing conservatives in Alberta.
The Liberal Party in Ontario?
Yup the usual suspects.
And it is cute to think they care about us more than one day every 4 years.
#82 Blacksheep on 03.21.18 at 8:29 pm
Non # 71,
“Meanwhile western governments seem hell bent on villainizing Russia for attacking Britain by delivering a cargo of LNG when they were running out of gas.”
“The Americans just shot up 200 Russians in Syria with attack helicopters. What the hell are the Americans doing in Syria? Fighting terrorists? That’s what the Russians are doing too so why shoot them up?”
“Meanwhile the Russians have basically, as politely as they can, said “the gloves are off” and they are going to start shooting back. Yikes. Perhaps we don’t have long to worry about economic problems.”
——————————
They want conflict? There will be conflict, goddamnit.
Just need to have the idiots on board, first.
Gotta feed the machine…Arseholes…
********************
Yup…’Red Dawn 2′ and ‘Day After 2’ coming to a theater near you… I just hope the Russians don’t piss off RAMBO.
Besides Putin says he is only racing ahead with defensive super weapons.
#37 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.21.18 at 6:42 pm
Self driving cars…
In order for those cars to function without killing people the regulatory regime will have to be extreme.
>> Not so. You have 2 eyes. These cars will have many: arrays of cameras, radar, lidar, and high definition maps for redundancy. These cars can see more, processor data faster, and so will avoid more accidents. Zero deaths is the goal, fewer death will be the reality.
After x amount of hours they will have to be taken in and checked/calibrated
>> just like today after x distance driven. Preventative maintenance. No difference other than your mechanic will have a Phd. in Mechatronics
Self driving cars are decades away.
>> If you said that 9 years ago, you are absolutely correct! First autonomous vehicle will into regular regular production next year, 2019, with no steering wheel, no brake pedal, no accelerator pedal. By regular production, I mean a full scale auto assembly plant (GM Orion, MI) building production vehicles on production assembly line shipped to commerce to fleet buyer. Look up Cruise AZ, its happening.
PS- They’ll have to pry the steering wheel of my HEMI Challenger out of my cold dead hands
>> Corvette rules.
#6 Rexx Rock on 03.21.18 at 5:29 pm
Garth may be finally right after many years of warning the masses.I flipped a condo last year and had a 2.59% for 30 years.In 2 years I think the 5 year will be as high 3.75%.Unbelievable,Canada may just give up interests rate increases and let our currency tank.Wouldn’t be the first time.
*****************
Sooo does that mean after all these years you may have been wrong.
“Well, kids, the government isn’t running this show. The CBers are.”
– I will raise you one and say that, sometimes, even CBers don’t run the show but the markets. Either because the CB’s will be forced to raise rates/contract QE to fight e.g. inflating asset prices or a commodity being use to be used as a hedge even in the face of slowing growth. Or a hedge fund explodes somewhere, spreads rise, interbank loans become stressed and credit dries up (it doesn’t matter how low rates are if banks are not loaning)
Greater Vancouver Housing Stats originally posted by realtor PaulB
March 21 New 193 Sold 138 TI: 8948
March 20 New 279 Sold 142 TI: 8931
March 19 New 307 Sold 120 TI: 8862
March 16 New 158 Sold 117 TI: 8743
March 15 New 154 Sold 127 TI: 8737
March 14 New 231 Sold 140 TI: 8749
March 13 New 277 Sold 159 TI: 8688
March 12 New 327 Sold 139 TI: 8642
March 9 New 139 Sold 91 TI: 8510
March 8 New 196 Sold 118 TI: 8496
March 7 New 204 Sold 99 TI: 8442
March 6 New 246 Sold 130 TI: 8372
March 5 New 316 Sold 104 TI: 8344
#80 NeverGiveUp – listen, taxing something to death is the modus operandi of socialism. Of course we call it socialist. If you haven’t been able to buy already, you’re foolish to think you’ll be able to buy during the crash. You don’t even recognize that it’s already happening. Besides, you’ll need to be approved at 7%… It’s not going to happen for you. Accept it, move on or move out, or bite the bullet, get a crumby starter home, and start working your way up. You don’t start at the top with anything.
the whole system is scum
we are approaching renewal time and shopping around, looking to unlock some of our equity. cant qualify under new rules with current big red bank (husband is self employed tradesman and doesn’t like to pay a lot of taxes, I am about to go on mat leave. perfect timing)
Appears our only option is B lenders for a 1% lending fee. thanks guys, that’s helpful.
Appraisal done by big blue bank comes in at $800,000.00..good number. they still wont touch us.
Appraisal done TWO WEEKS later by B company’s appraisers comes in $100,000.00 LESS.
what a joke
@#69 Jess
Not even close. This is how they get Gringos (and Gringoettes). Short memory.
In 2012 Mr Demarais saved Mr Sarkozy’s butt – interesting where the power really lies , isn’t it ? :)
http://www.macleans.ca/news/world/why-sarkozy-is-in-canada-while-police-raid-his-paris-home/
En francais, Mr Sarkozy said “thank you”
http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/national/201310/10/01-4698361-paul-desmarais-un-ami-au-grand-coeur-dit-sarkozy.php
…the reason that the “top 10” in the world did not save a monkey this time…is that the monkey lost its role.
HINT: Demarais…Sarko… huh ? What’s the connection ?
Well… whatever it is…was good enough to save Sarko’s butt in 2012.
Not this time :) Sarko’s out, Gadafi dead…and Gringos believe “tza dossier”..”tza ruskies run around with nervous poison”… “us in Syria to nail ISIS”….”Iran is tza bad guy”…etc.
short memories…big mistakes :)
#54 Lefty on 03.21.18 at 7:20 pm
A couple of interesting moves. Old girlfriend of mine listed their detached Brampton house last September for 800K. Finally sold for 625K closing in April. Already bought a comparable house in Casselman 30 minutes S.E. of Ottawa for 147K.
Her oldest son had a house in Oakville which he sold at peak of market last spring for 1.4 million, netting 850K clear. He moved to Russell, 20 minutes south of Ottawa buying a 3 storey new build on large lot for 327K.
GTA prices are madness will punish many participants.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Well, for everyone that likes to talk about how much wealth they have made in their GTA and YVR house – unless you are willing to sell it and move to a much lower cost area – like these two examples – all that wealth is doing is increasing your property taxes.
Sure, one could take out a HELOC for a temporary feeling of wealth, but it does cost interest, compounding in the opposite direction of wealth creation, and can only go to 65% of equity.
I have friends and family that live in the GTA. It is a high cost city, not including the RE. A 1.5M valued house might seem like all of the retirement you need, but once you downsize from that to a (not a shoe box) condo, you might only have 700K to live off of. I hear retirement / nursing homes in GTA are off the charts expensive.
Sold our family home in Richmond Hill on April Fools
Day 2017. Asking price $1,288.000. For a 3 bedroom bungalow on 76’x134’ lot, finished top to bottom second kitchen wet bar and the usual trappings of seccess. Four day later sold for $1,600.800.
At the time, I thought it was a joke. April fools….day gag, when our agent brought us the offer. However I just caught the biggest greater fool I’v had the pleasure of knowing. We, bought another home 1 hour out of town and a better house for half the price. Fast forward one year later my old house has just been newly re-listed. Asking price $1,550.000. Nothing done since the original sale except some new paint. Current average price in the area is now about $1,150.000. I’m killing myself laughing, I’m now patiently waiting to see the results. Hopefully the agent can hipnotize, and mesmerize, some other unsuspecting Puluka. Is there any end to the insanity. I love it! Greed can seriously cause blindness.
This sight has provided me with endless hours of enjoyment. Surly! … There won’t be too many more Bullies out there shortly. Hahaha.
Garth, how does your stance on central bank / government interaction jive with Morneau’s recent comments?
https://www.bnn.ca/morneau-open-to-changes-on-canadian-inflation-target-1.1033573
To me, that reads like him saying, “I want lower interest rates, inflation and mandate be damned, and I’m going to get them.”
#37 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.21.18 at 6:42 pm
PS- They’ll have to pry the steering wheel of my HEMI Challenger out of my cold dead hands.
—————————–
yeah, i wonder when the self driving gsxr1000 comes out. not holding my breath nor would it be any fun at all.
I was on a NA conference call today with all my counterparts at the big Fortune 500 multinational. Call was MANDATORY or peopledatory according to JT. It was about 7-12% price increases due to the rise in steel and aluminum. It’s going to cost the end user a butt load and the cost is getting passed on. No relief, just straight up price increase.
This is real world. It’s happening and it’s going to cost.
#44 TurnerNation on 03.21.18 at 6:48 pm
…. Praying I’m reincarnated as a “minority”
———————-
hey you never know.
it just happened to me.
turns out back in the 1600’s a few great- great (7x) french settler grandpappys married mic mac girls. (that;s all there was then – and the english were trying to wipe out both groups)
we had no idea other than a nebulous rumor or two
put a bloodhound on the trail (wife) who would not give up. hit paydirt. expect both of our metis cards in the mail any day.
the kid is heading to univ soon. last year there were 10m of UNclaimed native/metis scholarships.
The next rate hike in Canada won’t even be talked about until after the next federal election. Trudeau is getting pounded in the polls. The $C is falling like a stone internationally. Soldiers will be killed in Mali. Poloz will not raise rates to further exacerbates the Liberal demise. The low dollar is not a priority. The Liberals will need to issue billions in bonds to buy back from themselves at zero interest to fund buying the next election.
so. what is this about?
A student who owned a multi-million dollar Vancouver home has won a B.C. Supreme Court judgment forcing the sale of up to four Vancouver properties, in a complex case that foreshadows a flood of sales and litigation in Vancouver’s wild market, a real estate lawyer says.
#88 Ronaldo on 03.21.18 at 8:52 pm
#46 Swamp Creatures Move Into Kelowna on 03.21.18 at 6:56 pm
Going to be interesting to see what happens with prices of condo’s and cottages at Big White, Silver Star and those summer developments along Westside Road in particular LaCasa. Suspect there will be a tonne of For Sale signs going up. Happy to have dumped my cottage up there a year and a half ago at peak. Saw the writing on the wall.
____________________________________________________________________
The spec tax doesn’t apply to those areas (for now).
big white, rural westside road and silverstar are not within the kelowna/west Kelowna city limits
Mortgages that don’t require homeowner insurance surged 19 percent from a year ago, accounting for about 53 percent of the C$1.13 trillion ($864 billion) of home loans at Canada’s federally regulated banks, data from the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions show. Insured home loans fell 6.5 percent from a year ago.
http://foresthillsignature.com/blog/uninsured-mortgages-buck-housing-trends-across-country-1909
“#10 For those about to flop… on 03.21.18 at 5:44 pm
Recent Sale Report/ Realtor Assistance Needed
These guys finally met their fate 9 days ago after getting carried away during Spring Fling 2016 paying 1.62 for a house with an assessment of 1.30 at the time.
Were asking 1.35,let’s see what the damage is…
M43BC
493 Shannon Way, Delta paid 1.62 March 2016 ass 1.3 now asking 1.35
May 19:$1,750,000
Aug 10: $1,620,000
Change: – 130000.00 7%”
Hey Flop. It sold for $1.32
A $300K loss plus expenses. Ouch!!
#123 morrey on 03.21.18 at 11:38 pm
so. what is this about?
A student who owned a multi-million dollar Vancouver home has won a B.C. Supreme Court judgment forcing the sale of up to four Vancouver properties, in a complex case that foreshadows a flood of sales and litigation in Vancouver’s wild market, a real estate lawyer says.
==================
Link please?
Higher rates! Savers finally rewarded!
Well, they killed off the Smoking Man on x-files tonight.
Gartho, what you waiting for? Now is you the chance to be a progressive hero. Make a bet buddy.
Here you go. Whats with all the shit with Facebook, Cambridge analytics, bla bla bla. Smoke scream designed to censor social media thinking that’s why Trump won. Idiots!!!!
Fking hilarious now that I’m deep into the Truth Serum. The globalist want to shut down free speech on social media, because they think that’s why Trump won. Bahahah .
The stupidity of it all, they don’t know, why Hillary Lost, they really don’t.
The herd hated Govt, They distrusted the MSM because of 911, Trump triggered the globalist machine, MSM jumped on the bandwagon, demonizing trump even up to today, and every time they do that, he gets more popular. The Herd with trump Yeah Babey. Go, Trump.
University degrees are so overrated today.
Social media was dead silent during the election, even water coolers chatts were people pretended to Love Hillary. And all voted the mental case out.
Case in point. RBC Capital Markets posts on linked in all the time. almost 1 million followers yet Zero comments other than mine once in a while.
They may not click likes on my Linkin posts, they need the job, but I know how they will vote. Deplorables will inherit the earth.
No one knows the herd Like I do.
Dr. Smoking Man
Ph.D. Herdonomic
As per my last Post. George Soros, if you want to take down Trump, have the MSM support him, then his base would think he’s been bought.
Messing with free speech on Social Media will only make him more godlike.
Where the hell is my god damn Nobel prize.?
These people are so Stupid!!!!!!!!!!!!
UN where is it?
The only reason that house sold last year for nearly $900,00 is because some bank appraised it as such probably without even a drive-by. Are the banks then not liable in some way since they are supposed to have the financial smarts?
Could be interesting times for both banks and estate agents as the bubble unwinds and consumers look for third parties to blame. I can see an element of fraud and misrepresentation in it. Banks and agents would have put on paper what a property is worth and how much they feel it could increase. I suspect that neither would have inserted disclaimers in their paperwork or web claims as most are too young to remember declining RE values. Will only take one case in the media to get this legal ball rolling. Invest in lawyers folks! May be the next growth industry.
Yes when anything goes up in value like a rocket, it must at some point descend the same way.
A student who owned a multi-million dollar Vancouver home has won a B.C. Supreme Court judgment forcing the sale of up to four Vancouver properties, in a complex case that foreshadows a flood of sales and litigation in Vancouver’s wild market, a real estate lawyer says.
In 2016 Angela An-Chi Chang — who owned a home on the 3300-block West 14th Avenue according to legal filings — sued a man who allegedly failed to complete his purchase of Chang’s home. After a court battle, a judge has now ordered the sale of up to four properties owned by the defendant, in a ruling that could lead to further court battles between multiple bank and private lenders who already have mortgages secured by the defendant’s Vancouver real estate assets.
Ron Usher, a lawyer involved in making recommendations for reform in B.C.’s real estate industry, told Postmedia that given the NDP government’s new measures to crack down on speculative investment, he can envision “a mountain” of similar cases coming through B.C. courts.
“We are seeing these court actions because there are so many of these private arrangements, where people have to turn to others for financing,” Usher said. “Or, they might have debts coming due in another country.”
Usher said B.C. judges are increasingly being asked in civil cases to unwind complex property ownership disputes.
“We really don’t know the ownership of property in B.C., and now we have judges commenting,” Usher said. “It is inevitable that these cases will start to impact the market place.”
Chang’s claim says that defendant Xing Xua Hua agreed to buy her Kitsilano home in June 2016, for $3.9 million. Hua, who currently owns four homes in Vancouver, paid Chang a deposit of $190,000. Hua was to complete the purchase of Chang’s home by the end of September 2016. But he asked Chang to extend the closing into October 2016, and offered an additional $500,000 deposit.
Chang agreed to the sale extension, her claim says, but she never received the additional deposit funds, and determined the sale had collapsed.
In November 2016, she sued Hua, claiming losses and damages from the collapsed deal.
In a response, Hua claimed that after he did not complete the agreed deal in October 2016 his son Hua Wang offered in his place to buy Chang’s home for $3.9 million. But Chang did not accept the offer from Hua Wang, filings say.
In June 2017, a B.C. Supreme Court judge ruled in Chang’s favour. The judge ordered Hua to pay Chang damages of $583,000, plus legal costs for the case. Chang was also given a mortgage against a Shaughnessy home on the 2000-block West 19th Ave owned by Hua to secure the judgment.
The judge then ordered the sale of that Shaughnessy home and further ordered that three other properties owned by Hua, including a second Shaughnessy home valued at $3.1 million, and two Vancouver condos, could be sold. The judge said Chang could set the prices of Hua’s four properties and sell them successively, until she received her full court ordered payment.
The 2000-block West 19th Avenue property was listed in January 2018 for a “court order” sale at $5.58 million. The price was reduced to $5.38 million, and has been reduced further to $5.18 million, an MLS listing says.
A review by Postmedia of land title and mortgage documents connected to Hua’s four Vancouver properties show that he was involved in a number of real estate deals in 2016, and that multiple bank and private lenders have issued loans to Hua. These successive loans are secured against his properties. This suggests that multiple lenders could become involved in a complicated B.C. court battle involving Hua’s properties, in order to seek repayment of Hua’s real estate-backed debts. The issue being triggered by the forced sale of his properties.
One private lender with loans against several of Hua’s homes, according to documents, is named Su Cheng Chen. CIBC has issued multiple mortgage loans to Hua, as has Reliable Mortgage Investments Corp., according to property documents.
This court case resembles a number of Vancouver cases involving private lenders, and property purchases that appear to be financed with real-estate collateral and not backed by traditional income flow.
In some cases, real estate investors with roots in Mainland China have been contesting properties that are tied up in complex chains of community-based private loans, Postmedia has reported recently. Vancouver lawyers are also seeing a substantial increase in B.C. court cases filed by Chinese companies seeking to seize real estate assets from Chinese immigrants in B.C. Many of these cases involve allegations of opaque ownership, and lenders seeking to enforce debt judgments from Chinese courts.
In a 2016 study, global anti-corruption agency Transparency International pointed to the rising use of opaque ownership structures in Vancouver real estate, including shell companies, legal trusts, and so-called nominee owners with occupations such as “student” and “housewife.” The study’s author, Adam Ross, said these occupations are unlikely to produce the income needed to buy a house in Metro Vancouver, which is why housewives and students are considered by some to be opaque buyers.
Title documents show that the student Chang bought her West 14th Ave. home for $1.47 million in 2011, and sold it for $3.33 million in May 2017, following the collapse of the deal with Hua.
Mortgage documents for Hua’s 2000-block West 19th property, show that he lists his occupation as “general manage” and that he bought the home in 2011 with a mortgage from CIBC. At about the time he was to buy Chang’s home for $3.9 million, Hua bought a Shaughnessy home for $3.1 million and a Mount Pleasant area condo and condo on the UBC lands, worth $2.5 million in total.
[email protected]
#23 Suede on 03.21.18 at 6:22 pm
so why did the CAD blast off today?
—————————————
Blast off? Hardly
1. Oil increased 3 %
2. There is hope on NAFTA apparently
so loonie ‘rallied’ 1.3 % against USD, 0.56 % against Euro. After decline of 8 % YTD.
Down again in early trading today.
===========================
BTW I would not put any trust in
Mr.Poloz ability to properly manage the currency, which is evident in recent loonie trend and his latest communications focused precisely on areas outside of his responsibility and apparently outside his competence as well – exports and jobs.He probably still thinks he is running the Canada export agency.
He trash talks the loonie better than any one else.
======================
It seems T2 is becoming laughing stock
permanently on international scene, as he now does not want our helicopters used against ISIS.
https://ca.yahoo.com/news/stupid-can-get-duterte-slams-canada-botched-deal-193533024.html
So exactly how stupid can we get? T2 answers: “just watch us”.
#82 Blacksheep
I think perhaps I think I understand what you are saying but I am not sure.
#72 jess
A 10% discrepancy doesn’t matter in a 76% vote. Nobody else was even close.
That’s it I can’t take it any more! I am running for prime minister why not I have some time on my hands. If I poll well and win Garth is going to be president of the central bank or preferably he will run as well so I can appoint him finance minister. Sorry Garth it’s about 35 where you realize you can’t keep your kids down and well it’s time to change this thing. And no, losing a game is not the same thing as no longer being a player.
” Diversification is all dandy but with the banks representing so much of the TSX, this will get hit, bonds with increasing rates down too. “
There are some key differences between the US banking system and the Canadian banking system.
Typically people in the US take out 30-year term mortgages, whereby the interest rate is fixed for the entire 30 year term of the loan. Thus interest rate risk falls onto the bank. The US banks typically will fund the 30-year term mortgages with relatively short term money. Thus exposing a very substantial asset-liability term/duration mismatch. Supercharging their profits in a falling rate environment, but deadly when rates rise (as they did in 2007-2008).
Canadian banks, OTOH, typically lend short term (40% overnight, the balance with terms up to 5 years typically, ie: your 5-year term mortgage), and fund their balance sheets with matched term and overnight debt. Thus, the Canadian banks are not sensitive to changes in interest rates, and have the ability to rapidly re-price their liabilities.
The Canadian banking system is not nearly as sexy, and the profits aren’t anywhere near as extreme as in the USA — [I]but[/I] the Canadian banking system does not face the downside like in the US. In fact, with spread expansion, Canadian banks stand to benefit from housing prices falling and an increasingly significant number of even their better quality customers being forced to pay higher credit spreads for their mortgage credit.
So in light of such, it is unlikely that a Canadian housing collapse will play out like in the USA. Another factor is that of the difference between the CMHC, a federal government department/Crown Corporation, and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac which are known as “Government Sponsored Enterprises”. A key problem experienced in the USA in late 2008 was confidence in Fannie/Freddie, and the US government’s implied guarantee of the debt of the GSE’s. In fact, once Congress moved to pass legislation with a de facto US Treasury guarantee of Fannie/Freddie Mac-guaranteed mortgage securities, the bottom of the US financial collapse was reached, in February/March of 2009. CMHC’s debts and guarantees, in contrast, have always been acknowledged as full, complete, and unconditional obligations of the Government of Canada. So Canada does not face the scenario of confidence in CMHC being an issue to the extent experienced in the USA.
” Poloz will not raise rates to further exacerbates the Liberal demise. The low dollar is not a priority. The Liberals will need to issue billions in bonds to buy back from themselves at zero interest to fund buying the next election.”
The allegation that Poloz is a tool of political policy implementation is unfortunate. Poloz’s job is to react to inflation rates (CPI), to keep it within the 2% target as set forth in the mandate given to the Bank of Canada. For much of the past few years in the post-2013 peak era, even the abnormally low rates haven’t been able to stoke enough inflation in order to fulfill the mandate. If anything, rates are being set artificially high as inflation for much of the past 5 years has been mostly significantly beneath the specific 2% target.
With so many deflationary pressures in the pipeline, with the substantial likelihood of prices falling from peak 2013 levels (pretty much flat since), it does seem likely that Poloz will be forced to respond to an economy that, as another poster described, with severely declining consumer discretionary purchasing power. So Canadian rates probably have plateaued at this point, and probably are heading downwards. The CAD$ should strengthen as the result of very little purchasing power of consuming Canadians in foreign goods and services.
#114 millennial warfare
Is ‘doesn’t like to pay a lot of taxes’ code for does cash jobs and under reports? I have relatives who do that – used to build and sell homes using the 35% down no income verification tactic. B-20 has shut the door on them because income verification is required now as they’ve always drastically under-reported.
Minimizing the taxes you pay is definitely something you should do. But tax fraud means the rest of us have to pick up the slack for the roads, hospitals and services. If that’s your ‘doesn’t like to pay a lot of taxes’ good on the government for forcing the banks to show you (and my relatives) the door.
Re: #115 M on 03.21.18 at 10:40 pm
@#69 Jess
Not even close. This is how they get Gringos (and Gringoettes). Short memory.
In 2012 Mr Demarais saved Mr Sarkozy’s butt – interesting where the power really lies , isn’t it ? :)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
THE CORRUPT LEGACY OF PAUL DESMARAIS (SPECIAL EDITION)
https://medium.com/…/the-corrupt-legacy-of-paul-desmarais-2c30cab0cf36
Desmarais was based in France (majority shareholder of France’s biggest company TotalFina Elf) when the US-Iraq war started and stopped Canada going into conflict because he had ~$5 billion worth of contracts with Iraq and couldn’t collect insurance if Canada helped, much like Silverstein in New York, owner of the World Trade Center that was supposed to undergo $200 million in asbestos eradication just before 911 and had secured a $2 billion insurance policy on the towers a couple months prior, then collected double because of 2 attacks:
http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/silverstein.html
Silverstein Makes a Huge Profit off of the 9/11 Attacks
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=
Amazing how ppl are so willing to give their info:
Social Media Is a Tool of the CIA: “Facebook, Google and Other Social Media Used to Spy on People
https://www.globalresearch.ca/social-media-is-a-tool-of-the-cia-facebook-google-and-other-social-media-used-to-spy-on-people/5606170
FACEBOOK INVENTED BY THE CIA, SAYS THE ONION | WIRED
https://www.wired.com/wiredinsider/…/facebook-invented-by-the-cia-says-the-onion/
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Here’s one for flop that I will try to follow, just saw a sign out front today:
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19206509/13802-SILVER-VALLEY-ROAD-Maple-Ridge-British-Columbia-V4R0C2
We’ll see how long it takes to sell and for how much. Seems most stuff in Maple Ridge goes pretty fast still…..
Is it ethical or even legal for a government to manipulate the value of a market ??
Isn’t it actionable by people who paid full market value, to have their investment intentionally and purposely devalued by a sitting government ??
I’m making a comment now because last time I looked there were about 100 comments and now there are still only 124 comments, so I’m making one now just to keep things rolling.
#122 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 03.21.18 at 11:32 pm
The next rate hike in Canada won’t even be talked about until after the next federal election. Trudeau is getting pounded in the polls. The $C is falling like a stone internationally. Soldiers will be killed in Mali. Poloz will not raise rates to further exacerbates the Liberal demise. The low dollar is not a priority. The Liberals will need to issue billions in bonds to buy back from themselves at zero interest to fund buying the next election.
————————————–
Some of Poloz’s recent statements make me think he is vying for a Liberal Senate seat.
Yeah I know it was Harper who appointed the weasel. One of his bad decisions.
#194 Keith on 03.21.18 at 3:39 pm
@ # 168 Cottingham
Fees are a focus because with the slow demise of defined benefit pension plans, a majority of the population will need to make their own pension going forward. This is a new reality that did not exist until relatively recently.
Canadians pay very high prices for too many things, cell phone being a good example. Until recently the average Canadian was spending 2.5 percent on fees in their retirement savings accounts.
So consider a couple approaching retirement, with a paid for home and 500,000 in their retirement investments returning a balanced 6% net of fees. Their return on investment is $30,000 the fees they pay are $12,500. Per year, every year, increasing over time. So on their income of 100,000 this is going to be a huge budget item, not one that they knew about for a long time because unil recently fees were not usually disclosed.
So if you are an advisor, with a large book of clients with this kind of money, in exchange for a few hours of meetings and administration, you and your company are making out like bandits.
If the couple moves to an advisor that can do it for 1% in fees, they will save $7500 per year, their advisor will still make a decent amount of money, and $7500 per year that stays in the investment fund compounded over a 25 to thirty year retirement adds up to a very serious amount of money.
With your money, you have to be educated even with a great advisor. Investment choices matter, return matters, risk matters, fees and costs matter. Too many Canadians are overpaying for financial advice, our blog host is one of the solutions.
————
Everything you said above is correct but it doesn’t really address the hyper, obsessive manically focus in media regarding fees in just financial services industry . I mean fees in RE transactions also affect your retirement if you are giving up 5% of your money to sell a property. Fees for dental and medical services definitely affect your take home pay , tax rates and therefore your retirement prospects if they are “ too high “. I can go on but you get the picture .
Why the microscope and steady drum beat for just ONE set of user fees ?
To all Canadians who quote the gold price in USD, stop doing that!! YOU ARE CANADIANS, so quote it in loonies!!
It is 1710$ CAD this am, not $1329 USD.
Peace out.
#136 Nonplused on 03.22.18 at 2:01 am
“If I poll well and win, Garth is going to be president of the central bank or preferably he will run as well so I can appoint him finance minister.”
Did you mean to say governor (rather than president)? :)
greece foreclosures – going online avoid protestors – foreign bidders
http://www.dw.com/en/foreclosed-greek-homes-go-under-the-online-hammer/a-37555810
It’s looking more-and-more like with naiveté there is no peak.
“The buyers are gone. Sellers who waited to list are freaking. Prices are tumbling. And it may have just started.” – Garth
——————————————————————–
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kK62tfoCmuQ
#71 Nonplused on 03.21.18 at 7:53 pm
#82 Blacksheep on 03.21.18 at 8:29 pm
#108 DON on 03.21.18 at 10:12 pm
#134 Nonplused on 03.22.18 at 1:46 am
I’m trying to learn the Russian language, but the Cyrillic alphabet is throwing me off!
#143 Howard, I nearly fell off my chair when Poloz suggested his national daycare program as a vehicle to deal with a nagging increase in unemployment. What a way to lock women into the 1950’s. It was more hilarious than his statement about Millenials quitting their job search and sink expectations, move home so they could find some unpaid endeavour…..like “leaning forward” in community activism for the Liberals. Obviously this is one appt Harper is not crowing about….but remember why Harper appointed him, mistakenly thinking he could break into the Maritime Liberal subculture….didn’t work out.
#131 Jane
The ‘Banks” don’t appraise the property. They hire professional appraisers who are well paid, credential carrying people to do that and rely heavily on their valuations.
Grow up and stop bank bashing. If you want more evidence of the problems people bring on themselves look no further than the post here at :
#114 millennial warfare on 03.21.18 at 10:30 pm
and
#139 Waiverless on 03.22.18 at 2:19 am–has it exactly right.
@#95 Ian
“Unless there’s another level of game going on I’m not in tune with yet…”
+++++
Reality?
@#132 Legal war starts in Vancouver
After reading the particulars in that Court case .
It astounds me of the amount of “secondary” private lenders out there.
It wont just be the “greaterfools” getting burned when their heavily mortgaged houses drop in value and wont sell.
Cascade effect, owners, lenders, everyone.
Glad I’m debt free and renting.
To Smoking Man:
Your Trump revolution and “herd mentality” is based on lies.
And now everyone is on to those techniques.
You may have called the 2016 election Smoking Man,
But it’s done now.
No more Soros conspiracies, no more Benghazi, no more “pizzagate”, “Cooked Hilary”, etc. etc.
People are now awoke to right wing social media manipulation.
Funny that your “American deplorables” were all organised from the UK– Cambridge Analytica.
The gig is up. You’ve reached your high- water mark and now its time to slink back into your hole.
Your revolution is over Smoking Man.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/21/cambridge-analytica-facebook-exploited-trust
“It sounds a dreadful thing to say, but these are things that don’t necessarily need to be true as long as they’re believed.”
In his snooty British accent, Nix is only saying – and converting into highly effective digital marketing – what Trump has long believed: lies don’t matter as long as they’re believed.”
#2 KLNR on 03.21.18 at 5:11 pm
strange, in my hood of sunnylea seems mostly everything that comes to market is selling quickly wether its a 900k bung or a 2+mil rebuild. location location i guess?
——————————————————————-
Strange, when I look at actual listings and solds, I see that most in Sunnylea have gone under asking in the last 3 months. There have been a few above, but they tend to be small houses on large lots, likely teardowns.
155 Steve French on 03.22.18 at 8:48 am
To Smoking Man:
Your Trump revolution and “herd mentality” is based on lies.
And now everyone is on to those techniques.
You may have called the 2016 election Smoking Man,
But it’s done now.
No more Soros conspiracies, no more Benghazi, no more “pizzagate”, “Cooked Hilary”, etc. etc.
People are now awoke to right wing social media manipulation.
Funny that your “American deplorables” were all organised from the UK– Cambridge Analytica.
The gig is up. You’ve reached your high- water mark and now its time to slink back into your hole.
Your revolution is over Smoking Man.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/21/cambridge-analytica-facebook-exploited-trust
“It sounds a dreadful thing to say, but these are things that don’t necessarily need to be true as long as they’re believed.”
In his snooty British accent, Nix is only saying – and converting into highly effective digital marketing – what Trump has long believed: lies don’t matter as long as they’re believed.”
……
Life is based on lies. God damn it man. Stick to JD
The second you cut over to weed. Well you start to sound like T2.
Man Up
#62 MF on 03.21.18 at 7:37 pm
#3 TWOM
Lol I always laugh at these comments.
Toronto real estate is not going down, and you are waiting in vain. This is regardless of what your portfolio does.
MF
—————————————————————–
It amazes me that people think that the housing market in Toronto can keep going through a credit contraction. It’s never happened anywhere else. Why would Toronto be special?
#151 Stock Picker on 03.22.18 at 8:05 am
#143 Howard, I nearly fell off my chair when Poloz suggested his national daycare program as a vehicle to deal with a nagging increase in unemployment. What a way to lock women into the 1950’s. It was more hilarious than his statement about Millenials quitting their job search and sink expectations, move home so they could find some unpaid endeavour…..like “leaning forward” in community activism for the Liberals. Obviously this is one appt Harper is not crowing about….but remember why Harper appointed him, mistakenly thinking he could break into the Maritime Liberal subculture….didn’t work out.
———————————————-
It is wildly inappropriate for the governor of the Bank of Canada to make social policy speeches. If he wants to do that after he leaves the BoC that’s his business. For now he should shut his trap, butt out and do his job (which he ISN’T even doing!).
No national daycare program. No more transfer of wealth from the productive members of society to the takers. Enough already. It’s enough to make me sick. You have kids, you figure out how to care for them during the measly 5-year period between birth and the start of kindergarten (really just a 4-year period if you count the 1-year of paid mat leave).
Back in August 2015, wife and I sold our almost 1100 sqr ft house in Toronto, for almost $1k/sqr ft (it needed some work, despite spending $100k on it over the years). Could have stuck around another year or so and made another $175k probably…but I wasn’t going to try and time the market. Moved to London, ON. Nicer house, not too much work to do on it. No mortgage. Invested lots of left over money. Took a year off, lived frugally.
I should have told this story 6 months ago to maybe inspire any of you in Toronto sitting on a house. If you don’t love your job, are sick of Toronto and can sell your home to move somewhere more sane, do it – don’t try and time it.
#126 Vanrentor on 03.22.18 at 12:00 am
“#10 For those about to flop… on 03.21.18 at 5:44 pm
Recent Sale Report/ Realtor Assistance Needed
These guys finally met their fate 9 days ago after getting carried away during Spring Fling 2016 paying 1.62 for a house with an assessment of 1.30 at the time.
Were asking 1.35,let’s see what the damage is…
M43BC
493 Shannon Way, Delta paid 1.62 March 2016 ass 1.3 now asking 1.35
May 19:$1,750,000
Aug 10: $1,620,000
Change: – 130000.00 7%”
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
Hey Flop. It sold for $1.32
A $300K loss plus expenses. Ouch!!
Hey VR ,yeah that is a nasty punch in the philtrum.
Thanks for the verification and as always I will follow up in a few months and present it as CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.
Pretty much equal to highest percentage loss I have recorded so far,if we add the expenses and some opportunities lost it is easy to get north of 25% as it was a two year investment.
I hope for their sake renovations were kept to a minimum and I am going to go easy on them and call this one a 400k mistake.
I recorded another loss like this one a few weeks ago and someone remarked how long it would take to pay off.
Another point probably worth making is that it wasn’t that long ago when I was showing the carnage on the Westside and in West Vancouver,people said that was only at the top end and everyone else would be fine.
Are these people fine…
M43CA
#130 Smoking Man on 03.22.18 at 12:33 am
“Messing with free speech on [s]ocial [m]edia will only make [Trump] more godlike.”
I was mistaken: It’s not a man crush you have on the Donald; it’s more like a messianic adoration!You might want to go for counseling! :)
Since I got a response on the house in Delta and it only sold 11 days ago ,that is some pretty fresh meat,let’s see if I can show what happened to these cases.
Can I get someone to verify these recent sales.
Do they need a mop and bucket or ice bucket and champagne…
M43CA
3569 KING EDWARD AVE W VANCOUVER paid 2.6 April 2016 ass 2.72 now asking 2.65 sold for?
13697 Malabar Avenue, Surrey paid 1.32 August 2016 ass1.17 asking 1.18 sold for?
6438 Marine Drive, West Vancouver paid 1.28 January 2017 ass 1.26m asking 1.38 sold for?
27 8051 Ash Street, Richmond paid 993k March 2016 asking 969k sold for ?
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Feel free to make a donation.
Flop For Fox Fund…
http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/
It never ends with this vomitous government.
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/03/21/critics-mock-service-canadas-move-to-gender-neutral-language.html
Service Canada employees are asked to use gender-neutral or gender-inclusive language to avoid “portraying a perceived bias toward a particular sex or gender.”
Workers are instructed to use a client’s full name or ask how they would prefer to be addressed instead of using honorifics such as Mr., Mrs. or Ms., which “can be seen as gender specific by a client,” reads the memo, which was first obtained by Radio-Canada.
They are also being asked to eschew the terms “father” and “mother” in favour of “parent.”
#129 Smoking Man on 03.22.18 at 12:25 am
Well, they killed off the Smoking Man on x-files tonight.
Gartho, what you waiting for? Now is you the chance to be a progressive hero. Make a bet buddy.
Here you go. Whats with all the shit with Facebook, Cambridge analytics, bla bla bla. Smoke scream designed to censor social media thinking that’s why Trump won. Idiots!!!!
Fking hilarious now that I’m deep into the Truth Serum. The globalist want to shut down free speech on social media, because they think that’s why Trump won. Bahahah .
The stupidity of it all, they don’t know, why Hillary Lost, they really don’t.
The herd hated Govt, They distrusted the MSM because of 911, Trump triggered the globalist machine, MSM jumped on the bandwagon, demonizing trump even up to today, and every time they do that, he gets more popular. The Herd with trump Yeah Babey. Go, Trump.
University degrees are so overrated today.
Social media was dead silent during the election, even water coolers chatts were people pretended to Love Hillary. And all voted the mental case out.
Case in point. RBC Capital Markets posts on linked in all the time. almost 1 million followers yet Zero comments other than mine once in a while.
They may not click likes on my Linkin posts, they need the job, but I know how they will vote. Deplorables will inherit the earth.
No one knows the herd Like I do.
Dr. Smoking Man
Ph.D. Herdonomic
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Wow you really are a nut case, went way back and clicked on your linked in. Get some professional help Jimmy.
#101 Star Dust on 05.15.17 at 10:52 pm
#97 acdel on 05.15.17 at 10:44 pm
#82 Smoking Man
What is your occupation/location under LinkedIn?
As you know; this is on how one connects under this system.
..
He’s in charge of engineering development at dehavilland… LMAO
#102 ww1 on 05.15.17 at 10:59 pm
#99 acdel on 05.15.17 at 10:44 pm
#82 Smoking Man
What is your occupation/location under LinkedIn?
As you know; this is on how one connects under this system.
Take your pick :
jim.stojsin on linkedin
or
jim.stojsin on facebook
Despite this typhoon of attention, The Stormy, who continues to titillate the heartland’s lonely hearts on her Make America Horny Again tour of the country’s leading terpsichorean auditoria, is far from alone. Every day, it seems, more details are unzipped in the salacious saga of the 45th president and his long list of liaisons with women who were not then his wife, not yet his wife, and/or not ever going to be his wife.
#114 millennial warfare on 03.21.18 at 10:30 pm
the whole system is scum
we are approaching renewal time and shopping around, looking to unlock some of our equity. cant qualify under new rules with current big red bank (husband is self employed tradesman and doesn’t like to pay a lot of taxes, I am about to go on mat leave. perfect timing)
Appears our only option is B lenders for a 1% lending fee. thanks guys, that’s helpful.
Appraisal done by big blue bank comes in at $800,000.00..good number. they still wont touch us.
Appraisal done TWO WEEKS later by B company’s appraisers comes in $100,000.00 LESS.
what a joke
—————————————————————
Ohhh, too bad so sad, when will tax evading small business owners finally catch a break??
You want to unlock equity, sell the place. And pay some taxes. Those of us getting clipped at 53.5% would really appreciate it.
Yesterday after walking up to Balboa Park and having some lunch ,upon returning to downtown we passed some of the big banks.
Could see some of the monitors in the lobbies.
Thought they might have had it on a station interested about the cost of money going up.
Nope.
Stormy Daniels update…
M43CA
“Visualizing Thirty Years of the U.S. Trade Deficit in One Graph. It is Still Huge Under President Trump
President Trump talks about the U.S. trade deficit all the time. He recently proposed new tariffs on steel and aluminum as one way to help lower the trade deficit that has contributed to shrinking American growth in these industries. With so much attention being paid to one economic number, now is a good time to understand how the trade deficit has changed over the decades.
The data for our graph is based on figures from the U.S. Census Bureau. We visualized the deficit by plotting the total value of exports out of the U.S. as an open circle. Then, we placed the value of imports into the U.S. directly above it as a solid circle. The space between the two circles represents the trade deficit for each year, which we color-coded from light to dark red to show the severity of the deficit. All figures are calculated on a nominal basis, meaning that they aren’t adjusted for inflation. Visualizing imports, exports, and the deficit over the last 30 years reveals several key insights about the American economy.
First off, our trade deficit numbers only account for the difference between the value of physical goods being imported into and exported out of the United States. That means we’re counting things like cars, electronics, and food. Should we also include the value of services, like tourism, health care, or insurance? We’ll leave that for President Trump and the pundits to decide, but for simplicity’s sake we’re only focusing on physical imports and exports.
One thing is immediately clear: imports and exports are both on an upward trajectory year over year, but imports tend to grow faster. In other words, when looking at the graph you will notice the gap between the two numbers has gotten larger and larger while the space between the two circles has also become darker and darker. In short, the trade deficit used to be relatively small, averaging less than $150B year over year in the 1990s, but then it exploded in the 2000s. The single biggest increase occurred in 2004 when it jumped from $532B to $655B—a whopping $122B in one year.
There are a few obvious caveats to this pattern. The trade deficit reached its highest point in 2008 at $816B before collapsing in the wake of the Great Recession to $504B. This proves that closing the trade deficit isn’t necessarily an indication of a healthy economy. The gap then continued to grow again with the recovery, despite a speed bump in 2013 when it shrank to $689B from $730B the year prior. As a matter of fact, the trade deficit shrank the last year of Obama’s presidency before growing again under Trump.
Economists care about the trade deficit because it helps answer several important questions about the economy. For one thing, to what extent does a country rely on manufacturing, as opposed to consumption, for growth? Note that, interestingly, countries that export a lot more than they import don’t automatically have the best economies. For example, Thailand (+$44B), Russia (+$41.5B), and Nigeria (+$7.7B) all have trade surpluses, but there’s no chance any of them will overtake the U.S. in per capita income anytime soon. The $800B trade deficit is a problem, but clearly the macroeconomic health of the country is more complicated than a single number might lead you to believe.”
https://howmuch.net/articles/historical-trade-deficit-usa
#155 Steve French on 03.22.18 at 8:48 am
To Smoking Man:
Your Trump revolution and “herd mentality” is based on lies.
And now everyone is on to those techniques.
You may have called the 2016 election Smoking Man,
But it’s done now.
No more Soros conspiracies, no more Benghazi, no more “pizzagate”, “Cooked Hilary”, etc. etc.
People are now awoke to right wing social media manipulation.
Funny that your “American deplorables” were all organised from the UK– Cambridge Analytica.
The gig is up. You’ve reached your high- water mark and now its time to slink back into your hole.
Your revolution is over Smoking Man.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/21/cambridge-analytica-facebook-exploited-trust
“It sounds a dreadful thing to say, but these are things that don’t necessarily need to be true as long as they’re believed.”
In his snooty British accent, Nix is only saying – and converting into highly effective digital marketing – what Trump has long believed: lies don’t matter as long as they’re believed.”
_________________________________________
It is SAD when your an delusional old man with nothing to look forward to and life is over. All you can do is try to make others as SAD as you are. This is Smoking Mans mantra. c’est la vie
#154
Once people who invest in MIC realize how many homes are floated with multiple mortgages and that there may not be any real collateral they will be withdrawing their funds from these secondary mortgage companies. The only way these companies will be able to attract capital will be to offer higher returns for the risk, expect to see second mortgages in the high teens pretty quick. Without ever increasing equity it will only take six months to a year for the effects to really be seen as the people I know offering these mortgages usually have one year terms.
#145 American loonie on 03.22.18 at 7:14 am
To all Canadians who quote the gold price in USD, stop doing that!! YOU ARE CANADIANS, so quote it in loonies!!
It is 1710$ CAD this am, not $1329 USD.
Peace out.
______________________________
If gold is where your at then USD or CDN doesn’t matter its all in the tank.
Bond alert.
Major camel toe developing on CAD bond yields after multiple bat man ears that went no where.
Not good for real estate.
Is it just me or are their a lot of similarities? Between the past and now. What was easy money in the stock market is the same now easy money in housing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCEJ65H_1XE
This is for all the new landlords out there it’s the new mandatory lease agreement. brought to you by Wynne and company.Fourteen pages of grief, from three page with check boxes.
http://www.forms.ssb.gov.on.ca/mbs/ssb/forms/ssbforms.nsf/FormDetail?OpenForm&ACT=RDR&TAB=PROFILE&SRCH&ENV=WWE&TIT=2229E&NO=047-2229E
Pink Pollen falling in Vancouver.
These guys have gone super aggressive to try and get some action.
In line to take a loss after expenses , the play is most likely to try and get a fish on the hook at 3.88 and try to get 4 out of them to walk away with a Pink Draw…
M43CA
3657 W 36th Avenue, Vancouver paid 3.75 February 2016 ass4.21 asking 3.88
Sep 18:$4,388,000
Mar 21: $3,888,000
Change: – 500000.00 -11%
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3657-w-36th-avenue
https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMEs4Wg==
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Feel free to make a donation.
Flop For Fox Fund…
http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/
#139 Waiverless
No cash jobs. I wish. All legit business expenses, we work with a very straight edge CPA. You should see his face when we even crack a joke about cash jokes.
The bank doesn’t care that we can produce 3 years of business account statements supporting our monthly cash flow. They only look at that number on your tax return.
________
#152 the Jaguar on 03.22.18 at 8:07 am
The ‘Banks” don’t appraise the property. They hire professional appraisers who are well paid, credential carrying people to do that and rely heavily on their valuations.
Grow up and stop bank bashing. If you want more evidence of the problems people bring on themselves look no further than the post here at :
#114 millennial warfare on 03.21.18 at 10:30 pm
and
#139 Waiverless on 03.22.18 at 2:19 am–has it exactly right.
_____
The appraiser who valued our house $100k lower 2 weeks later than big blue bank was a cidiot from Toronto , could not have been older than 20 and showed up in a brand new CLS 400. Well paid professional, sure, just like those 20 year old financial gurus at the bank that try to sell you shit.
We don’t have a problem, we pay our bills easily. Just pointing out how frustrating it is dealing with banks when you are self employed, and how the value of an asset mysteriously drops $100k in value over a 2 week period.
#132 Legal War Starts in Vancouver on 03.22.18 at 1:38 am
What a messy case.
Lawyers in Vancouver must be happy, this is going to keep them busy for years.
Finally, we will be able to prove the majority of foreign and domestic investors/speculators are not rich, they just have access to lots of credit.
I wonder what CIBC has to say for themselves now.
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/student-wins-judgment-after-vancouver-real-estate-deals-fall-through
A buyer cannot simply walk away from a signed real estate deal. Several cases have been ruled against the buyers and they did not took a long time:
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/student-wins-judgment-after-vancouver-real-estate-deals-fall-through
Why similar cases like Derek’s are so complex in Ontario?
#106 JR on 03.21.18 at 10:04 pm
This simply isn’t true.
Prices are way up over the past 60 days and are once again approaching March/April 2017 prices.
Good luck finding a home right now as a first time buyer looking in Toronto. Most houses are getting double digit offers and condos across the city continue to set new record prices.
____________________________________________
Same situation in greater vancouver too. Apartments routinely selling for over asking and houses listed are scooped up awfully fast. 1 bedroom sold last night for 295K, asking was 289K.
Spring fever is here. Time to buy is now, if you are waiting for the crash.
#179 concerned1
Such a shill.
Nice try though, Bub.
#145 American loonie on 03.22.18 at 7:14 am
To all Canadians who quote the gold price in USD, stop doing that!! YOU ARE CANADIANS, so quote it in loonies!!
It is 1710$ CAD this am, not $1329 USD.
Peace out.
====================================
Part of the reason most lose money investing in precious metals. They don’t take the exchange rate into account. The pm’s are very cheap right now for the Americans, especially AG.
#150 Gravy Train on 03.22.18 at 7:56 am
#71 Nonplused on 03.21.18 at 7:53 pm
#82 Blacksheep on 03.21.18 at 8:29 pm
#108 DON on 03.21.18 at 10:12 pm
#134 Nonplused on 03.22.18 at 1:46 am
I’m trying to learn the Russian language, but the Cyrillic alphabet is throwing me off!
_____________________________________
Я тоже
Legal Wars Starts in Vancouver:
here’s the link:
http://vancouversun.com/news/crime/student-wins-judgment-after-vancouver-real-estate-deals-fall-through
It is inevitable that these cases will start to impact the market place.
Vancouver real estate is starting to unwind.
@#41 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 03.21.18 at 6:46 pm
KLNR on 03.21.18 at 5:11 pm
strange, in my hood of sunnylea seems mostly everything that comes to market is selling quickly wether its a 900k bung or a 2+mil rebuild. location location i guess?
__________________________________
No you dirty SHYSTER its just your made up story. You idiots are not qualified to shine shoes. Dirty SHYSTERS just make up stories backed by fiction.
_________________
hahah, no need to be an Ahole – i know it’s hard for you.
I’m no realtor. Just live in a high demand nieghourhood apparently.
here’s one for you, people are still buying and paying large in The choice areas
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/palmerston-home-buyer-disparaged-for-paying-600000-over-asking/article38310307/
#176 Millennial Warfare
Just pointing out how frustrating it is dealing with banks when you are self employed, and how the value of an asset mysteriously drops $100k in value over a 2 week period.
—————————————————————–
Or, it could mysteriously rise in value over the same two week period depending on which bank you went to first. Makes one wonder doesn’t it?
@#156 Tater on 03.22.18 at 8:48 am
#2 KLNR on 03.21.18 at 5:11 pm
strange, in my hood of sunnylea seems mostly everything that comes to market is selling quickly wether its a 900k bung or a 2+mil rebuild. location location i guess?
——————————————————————-
Strange, when I look at actual listings and solds, I see that most in Sunnylea have gone under asking in the last 3 months. There have been a few above, but they tend to be small houses on large lots, likely teardowns.
__________________________________
For sure some of those listed well over 2m went under but their list price was still bloated compared to last year.
FYI i’m not a realtor just a resident interested in what’s actually going on. houses are moving and for large prices.
This is the reason that this whole crypto mining thing is so nutso. Massive use of energy for what? Expect to hear more stories like this going forward. Total waste of energy.
https://www.coindesk.com/washington-states-chelan-county-moves-limit-new-bitcoin-mining-firms/
Mark, when you make a claim like housing prices peaked in 2013, without any evidence to support it, you sound like a fool. So, do you have any evidence (i.e. data) that would support your claim?
If not, you really should stop with this nonsense.
my friend the agent just sold his house in a far flung suburb (almost all the way to abbotsford).
listed monday. we figured 870 was the right ask. he aimed high with an ask of 890. sold yesterday – 930k.
wow.
And another one bits the dust! How would anyone who is sane want to work for this piece of $hit.
One source familiar says it started over the weekend with Dowd’s controversial statement about ending the Russia probe. It was a bad weekend for the whole legal team as a result of that. Then Dowd was upset about the hiring of Joe diGenova and felt slighted. He was making threats on Monday about leaving but then denied it after The New York Times reported it.
There is concern now that there will be a huge void now that the main point of contact with Mueller’s team is leaving and the legal team is having a hard time finding others to join — Trump has made overtures made to other lawyers like former Solicitor General Ted Olson, who declined to take a job this week. (Smart guy)!
The source says it was “a mutual decision”…. sounds like president wanted it too. Another source familiar with the matter says that there were too many disagreements with the president.
I guess the only ones that would work for him are Trump is now are a porn actress, a reality show star and a former Playboy model.
Oh wait whats that? Oh my bad they left and are suing him. Carry on………………..
#181 Ronaldo on 03.22.18 at 11:30 am
#145 American loonie on 03.22.18 at 7:14 am
To all Canadians who quote the gold price in USD, stop doing that!! YOU ARE CANADIANS, so quote it in loonies!!
It is 1710$ CAD this am, not $1329 USD.
Peace out.
====================================
Part of the reason most lose money investing in precious metals. They don’t take the exchange rate into account. The pm’s are very cheap right now for the Americans, especially AG.
________________________________________
Too volatile, no money to be made after trades are done. Americans always love that stuff. 1849 proved it.
The appraiser who valued our house $100k lower 2 weeks later than big blue bank was a cidiot from Toronto , could not have been older than 20 and showed up in a brand new CLS 400
_____
Lease one for less than 1000.00/month.
Live at home, and work at Timmies. You can be Benz driving baller too!
Almost half the BMW and Benz lineup can be parked in your driveway for a 200.00/month premium over a new Honda Odyssey.
fossil water – how long will this last?
Contrary to common belief, the most important riches of Libya are not the oil wells, but water. The world’s biggest reservoirs of fossil freshwater lie below its desert. Through an extensive pipeline system, these aquifers provide the country with water for consumption and agriculture. The so-called “Great Man-Made River” is the world’s largest irrigation project.
Libya’s Great Man-Made River (GMMR) currently transports almost 2.5 million cubic metres of water daily. It runs through an underground network of pipelines from the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System in the Great Sahara desert to the coastal urban centres, including Tripoli and Benghazi. The distance is up to 1,600 kilometres. The GMMR currently provides 70 % of all freshwater used in Libya.
https://www.dandc.eu/en/article/libya-has-worlds-largest-irrigation-project
…..”The latest of these is a hustle called “gamification,” an attempt by such giants as T-Mobile and Walt Disney to give game-like, “psychological” prizes to employees rather than giving pay raises or cash bonuses. As the honchos of United Airlines learned, however, not everyone bites the corporate bait.
United recently announced a new fun game for employees — rather than giving standard bonus payments this year, bosses were creating a dazzling sweepstakes lottery, with prizes such as luxury cars and $100,000 in cash. But the sizzle quickly fizzled as United’s 90,000 workers realized that more than 99 percent of them would get nothing from this big prize scam, which actually would let top executives and big shareholders pocket the bulk of bonus money that was owed to employees. United had hoped the game would create “excitement” among the rank and file, but instead it created resentment. Workers, naturally preferring bonus cash to bogus corporate excitement, rebelled with such fury that United is now reconsidering the switch….read more @
JIM HIGHTOWER ON BUZZFLASH AT TRUTHOUT
http://buzzflash.com/commentary/thieves-in-the-suites-today-s-captains-of-corporate-capitalism
In BC the dream of the people is to get free stuff. And their old plan was for their house to go up and up in value, aka unearned wealth.
As that plan slams into the inevitable wall, the people of BC have a new dream, for the government to loot the wealth of ‘the rich’, and ‘foreigners’, and then the government would give them free stuff.
Not 1 in 500 people in BC have read Ayn Rand but she warned that if you can loot the wealth of other people, then looters can and will come for your wealth too.
So the people of BC are shocked that the looters are coming for their house and their money.
#187 Ronaldo on 03.22.18 at 12:00 pm
….Expect to hear more stories like this. Total waste of energy.
FTFY.
——–
btc to 1000.
soon.
Aviv Ovadya:…”platformed and algorithmically optimized world is vulnerable — to propaganda, to misinformation, to dark targeted advertising from foreign governments — so much so that it threatens to undermine a cornerstone of human discourse: the credibility of fact.”
https://www.buzzfeed.com/charliewarzel/the-terrifying-future-of-fake-news?utm_term=.rdQyGZyMM#.wj3r2lrVV
we ain’t seen nothin’ yet
…
In the murky corners of the internet, people have begun using machine learning algorithms and open-source software to easily create pornographic videos that realistically superimpose the faces of celebrities — or anyone for that matter — on the adult actors’ bodies. At institutions like Stanford, technologists have built programs that that combine and mix recorded video footage with real-time face tracking to manipulate video. Similarly, at the University of Washington computer scientists successfully built a program capable of “turning audio clips into a realistic, lip-synced video of the person speaking those words.” As proof of concept, both the teams manipulated broadcast video to make world leaders appear to say things they never actually said.
#186 KLNR on 03.22.18 at 11:57 am
@#156 Tater on 03.22.18 at 8:48 am
#2 KLNR on 03.21.18 at 5:11 pm
strange, in my hood of sunnylea seems mostly everything that comes to market is selling quickly wether its a 900k bung or a 2+mil rebuild. location location i guess?
——————————————————————-
Strange, when I look at actual listings and solds, I see that most in Sunnylea have gone under asking in the last 3 months. There have been a few above, but they tend to be small houses on large lots, likely teardowns.
__________________________________
For sure some of those listed well over 2m went under but their list price was still bloated compared to last year.
FYI i’m not a realtor just a resident interested in what’s actually going on. houses are moving and for large prices.
————————————————————
Just go to bungol.ca and you can look at the listings data rather than going based on your feelings.
#186 KLNR on 03.22.18 at 11:57 am
@#156 Tater on 03.22.18 at 8:48 am
#2 KLNR on 03.21.18 at 5:11 pm
strange, in my hood of sunnylea seems mostly everything that comes to market is selling quickly wether its a 900k bung or a 2+mil rebuild. location location i guess?
——————————————————————-
Strange, when I look at actual listings and solds, I see that most in Sunnylea have gone under asking in the last 3 months. There have been a few above, but they tend to be small houses on large lots, likely teardowns.
__________________________________
For sure some of those listed well over 2m went under but their list price was still bloated compared to last year.
FYI i’m not a realtor just a resident interested in what’s actually going on. houses are moving and for large prices.
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April 17 median detached price in W07 was 1.396 with 24 sales
Feb 18 median detached price in W07 was 1.08 with 14 sales
@#192 IHCTD9 on 03.22.18 at 12:41 pm
The appraiser who valued our house $100k lower 2 weeks later than big blue bank was a cidiot from Toronto , could not have been older than 20 and showed up in a brand new CLS 400
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Lease one for less than 1000.00/month.
Live at home, and work at Timmies. You can be Benz driving baller too!
Almost half the BMW and Benz lineup can be parked in your driveway for a 200.00/month premium over a new Honda Odyssey.
___________
yup any burger flipper can be poor to look rich driving there bmw/MB/F150
have to be a huge dope to waste a high percentage of your earnings on a depreciating asset.
Just treat gold like another currency. Not designed for profit. No yield, just like currency underneath a mattress. Yield implies risk. Keeps your purchasing power steady.
For example:
Vancouver real estate was around 830 ounces of gold in year 2000. Guess what the price is today? Around 830 ounces. Vancouver real estate stayed constant in terms of CANADIAN gold prices. Check it for yourself.
Gold has gone down in USD but UP in CAD.
If you are a Canadian, quote prices in CAD!!!!! It gives you a different perspective if you thought gold was going down. It is actually near all-time highs in CAD!!
Gold is not money. – Garth
“Mark, when you make a claim like housing prices peaked in 2013, without any evidence to support it, you sound like a fool. So, do you have any evidence (i.e. data) that would support your claim?
If not, you really should stop with this nonsense.”…Geeze Louise, if this admonition applied to everyone then there’d only be 20 or so posts per day…come to think of it, not a terrible idea.
Reverse Mortgage Debt On Canadian Real Estate Jumps Over 44%
Canadian real estate owners have received a windfall lately, but unfortunately it’s all trapped in their home. Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) numbers show that an increasing number of homeowners are “releasing equity” through a reverse mortgage. The relatively new form of debt is rapidly growing, at almost 8 times the pace of regular mortgage debt.
158 Tater on 03.22.18
In Canada, if you like big city feel, there is no where else.
Toronto is the New York of Canada.
If you dislike Toronto that’s fine, but the city is booming.
-Population boom
-low unemployment
-high salaries
-low rates that will be rising at a glacial speed
-clean compared to other cities
-lower crime than other cities
Too many tail winds still.
MF
Woul it be wise to shift more capital to short term bonds instead of stocks if you’re looking to retain capital?
#182 James on 03.22.18 at 11:35 am
#150 Gravy Train on 03.22.18 at 7:56 am
I’m trying to learn the Russian language, but the Cyrillic alphabet is throwing me off!
“Я тоже.”
Мы оба находимся в одной и той же пробной лодке?
#158 Tater on 03.22.18 at 9:08 am
#62 MF on 03.21.18 at 7:37 pm
#3 TWOM
Lol I always laugh at these comments.
Toronto real estate is not going down, and you are waiting in vain. This is regardless of what your portfolio does.
MF
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It amazes me that people think that the housing market in Toronto can keep going through a credit contraction. It’s never happened anywhere else. Why would Toronto be special?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
But…GTA is special! It is one of the most desirable cities in the world don’t ya know! According to MF, every other location in Canada is sh*t – if you don’t live in the downtown heart of the centre of the universe, you don’t matter.
My advice for those wanting to buy in GTA – go all in – now! Take every penny you have, and every penny you can borrow into a mortgage – and then borrow more from an alternative lender. Don’t worry – prices in GTA after this little blip will probably be 30% higher in 3 years, so you can take out a HELOC to pay off that alternative lender – so no worries.
A little flat or up – never down – that is all you need to know.
Now, back over to MF for our regularly scheduled programming…
#207 Gravy Train on 03.22.18 at 3:18 pm
#182 James on 03.22.18 at 11:35 am
#150 Gravy Train on 03.22.18 at 7:56 am
I’m trying to learn the Russian language, but the Cyrillic alphabet is throwing me off!
“Я тоже.”
……………………………….
Мы оба находимся в одной и той же пробной лодке?
_______________________________________
да и быстро угасает.
#54 Lefty on 03.21.18 at 7:20 pm
Already bought a comparable house in Casselman 30 minutes S.E. of Ottawa for 147K.
Her oldest son had a house in Oakville which he sold at peak of market last spring for 1.4 million, netting 850K clear. He moved to Russell, 20 minutes south of Ottawa buying a 3 storey new build on large lot for 327K.
Russel is more like 30 minutes, Casselman 40, and those are no traffic travel times. People do commute in from crazy distances though, so it’s a matter of personal preferences. There are lots of wannabe mansions out in the country around Ottawa. Gatineau side is even cheaper for obvious reasons.
Dow plummets 600 points after Trump’s tariff announcement. War has been proclaimed.
Correction Dow plummets 700 points after Trump’s tariff announcement. War has been proclaimed.
CBers are beholden to politicians. They only claim to be for the inherent protections it provides.
So, after 10+ years of ZIRP (in Canada it’s 0.25% but whose counting) nearly every T4 wielding Canadian has fallen for the narcotic of cheap money.
IF rates ‘rise’ (and I use that term loosely), it will negatively effect all asset classes (including a balanced portfolio) which were bid up, due to those easy money policies.
The big question is timing. ie. When will CBers (aka Politicans) say uncle. These same politicians will ‘feel the burn’ when those who are demanding an RE correction, get too much of a good thing. The next move will be a return to ZIRP in a flash – which btw is only a whopping 1.00% away LOL – then Coordinated QE (infinity) and possibly break the seal on NIRP.
The end game is votes and staying in power. The collateral damage of cheap money IS and always will be the dollar.
It is true, that at some day in the distant future, there will be a come to Jesus moment and protecting FIAT will be necessary – but not before real inflation has stolen most of our purchasing power and quality of life.
#205 MF on 03.22.18 at 2:27 pm
158 Tater on 03.22.18
In Canada, if you like big city feel, there is no where else.
Toronto is the New York of Canada.
If you dislike Toronto that’s fine, but the city is booming.
-Population boom
-low unemployment
-high salaries
-low rates that will be rising at a glacial speed
-clean compared to other cities
-lower crime than other cities
Too many tail winds still.
MF
—
cmon mf, tell us this is sarcastic joke. it has to be.
I took me less than 10 min to debunk every one, other than interest rates of those booming statements oy yours.
Now that firearms are hot topic now days, whats interesting that lo life Hammer has 3x less population but 10x less firearms related crimes. violent crime severity index in to is around 100, while hammer is slightly above 80. Tell you crooks in toronto are but more under pressure from competition sot they work 20% harder than crooks in hammer, not just corporation and gov. are working on efficiency. Crooks do to…
Median income in hammer is bigger than one in toronto.
press play
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a01QQZyl-_I
So i’ve been keeping track of homes listed below $1,000,000 in vancouver. It’s not hard to keep track of because there are so few, but more and more start to pop up. 6 months ago there was 1. now there’s 7. This one was listed at $999,900 a few weeks ago, cancelled, and just relisted at $899,900.
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1827-pandora-street
A 10% price cut.
But if you dig deeper it was actually 1,098,800 before that, and again cancelled and relisted.
A 18% price cut.
I still think this practice of cancelling and relisting to show a lower price without it showing “reduced” should be illegal.
Few investors can match the track record of investing performance that Warren Buffett has achieved, and longtime shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A)(NYSE: BRK-B) know firsthand how successful long-term investing can result in life-changing wealth. Yet the Oracle of Omaha has gone through both good times and bad, and rather than giving into the prevailing attitude among market participants that the nine-year-old bull market could continue indefinitely, Buffett’s latest annual letter to shareholders warns Berkshire investors that losses of 50% or more are not only possible but inevitable in the future.
I’ve posted about 58 Elmartin in Toronto, they lost over 400k in less than a year. It’s in the same hood as the house featured here.
#205 MF on 03.22.18 at 2:27 pm
158 Tater on 03.22.18
In Canada, if you like big city feel, there is no where else.
Toronto is the New York of Canada.
If you dislike Toronto that’s fine, but the city is booming.
-Population boom
-low unemployment
-high salaries
-low rates that will be rising at a glacial speed
-clean compared to other cities
-lower crime than other cities
Too many tail winds still.
MF
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Is this the same guy that admitted to not knowing enough about investments to go about it himself but can now apparently predict the future of real estate in the GTA?
I’d get my advice elsewhere.
@ #114 millennial warfare,
1)Maybe the second appraisal is the accurate one.
2) Don’t use euphemisms like “unlock some equity”. You are increasing your debt. So say it that way.
3) What you are experiencing is the result of tightening credit conditions that have long been predicted on this blog and elsewhere. That’s not a bug, it’s a feature, and a good thing.
“I still think this practice of cancelling and relisting to show a lower price without it showing “reduced” should be illegal.”…seriously? You want more laws???
What ever happened to people being responsible for what they offer and agree to pay for things? Should it also be illegal to sell something for MSRP after say a Boxing month sale?
Get a grip. Just don’t pay more than you personally think anything is worth to you.
#215 Below one mil
I see your points but IMHO…don’t force them to claim “reduced”….simply perform one’s own due diligence.
No sense “chumming the waters”..”loose lips sink ships” etc etc….if one is a potential buyer, don’t alert others of “blood in the water”.
The current RE market is of historical proportions..this has all the hallmarks of unwinding..the only questions are how fast and how large.
““Mark, when you make a claim like housing prices peaked in 2013, without any evidence to support it, you sound like a fool. So, do you have any evidence (i.e. data) that would support your claim?”
Lots of evidence has been provided. The format of this blog doesn’t lend itself to the publishing of a comprehensive paper, but if you look at, for instance, the rapid deceleration of CPI, changes to the sales mix (the data I use is proprietary, can’t really share it unfortunately), changes in credit issuance, changes in credit spreads and risk premia, etc., they are all consistent with that of a 2013 pan-Canadian top. Of course, in certain cities, local peaks were reached earlier (ie: Edmonton 2007, Calgary 2011, etc.).
Its not unexpected to me that the Realtors, who quote the average price of the units they happen to be transacting in (which is different from average house prices), would report rising numbers in the post-2013 peak era. The supply onslaught, particularly in GTA/GVR has been absolutely enormous, and even in those cities, it is well known that there is a large dispersion between units which frequently transact and are likely to be invested in heavily, and units which are held by long-term owners who do comparatively little re-investment. I don’t blame the Realtors for publishing the numbers which are most favourable to the narrative they’re trying to cast, but its really not honest to be making claims of price increases when comparables on individual identical houses have not risen in the GTA/GVR.
Which brings me to another thing seen in the post-2013 peak era — nobody, and I mean, nobody in the media talks about, or is even allowed to talk about the shifting sales mix. Search the Globe and Mail’s RE columns or commentary using your favourite search tool for mention of the sales mix. You’ll come up with almost nothing. The reason for this is that Canada’s news outlets have become beholden to the RE sell side for advertising dollars, and simply have no interest in doing anything that might cause public confidence to be questioned in the narrative the sell side is trying to cast, that of systemically rising prices. Critical analysis and dissenting opinions aren’t even sought. RE-board press releases are re-printed almost verbatim. Unfortunately a lot of people will open one of those newspapers, read what’s written, and without any critical thought, merely scale up the price they believe their property might sell at accordingly. And then tell their friends that they made $100k last year merely sitting in RE. Only problem is, its all fantasy, and nearly nobody actually sells. When they do, they’re only getting the 2013 prices. “Inventory” recently has been allegedly a bit low — this is the direct result of a standoff between the sellers, in disbelief of their Realtors only advising to list at 2013 (peak) prices, and their ‘belief’ that house prices have appreciated in the post-2013 peak era.
Last but not least, just look at the fervor with which this blog has been attacked. Garth is hardly a RE bear, he owns a bunch himself (along with his balanced portfolio) and even advocates for its purchase when appropriate per the algorithms he’s developed for working with clientele of his advisory services. But the RE sell side is so powerful that they want to suppress the truth, attacking our host nearly daily in the comments (and that’s just in the ones we see), attacking individual posters at times, attacking the blog in other Internet venues. If the sell side didn’t have a false narrative to protect, why would they bother? Didn’t Shakespeare once say, “The lady doth protest too much, methinks”? Why do the RE boards go to court to suppress publication of market data? Why don’t the RE boards release comprehensive sales mix data publicly?
Congratulations on acquiring a classic piece of property.
It’s all up.
@ #215 Below one mill.
its a POS!!
https://www.google.ca/maps/place/1827+Pandora+St,+Vancouver,+BC+V5L+1M2/@49.2830415,-123.0673035,3a,90y,329.6h,79.4t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sQo5gatw8ezKmVK3jdVpJ6A!2e0!7i13312!8i6656!4m5!3m4!1s0x548671174d9e553f:0x397639ea17912021!8m2!3d49.2832424!4d-123.0672472
Genuinely no matter if someone doesn’t be aware of afterward its
up to other users that they will help, so here it
happens.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on uncategorized.
Regards