Fleas

Early on, as a newbie financial journalist, I learned that a country’s currency is kinda like a company’s stock price. When investors think it’s a dog with fleas, they sell it off.

Well, we’re infested. The loonie has collapsed from 82 cents down to seventy six, and the slide may continue – depending on how the Poloz poodles at the Bank of Canada decide to react. (Remember that we were actually above par with the Yankee dollar just a few years ago – when I told you to go forth and buy up all of Florida.) Some people now say 70 cents is for sure. Others even darkly mutter ‘sixty.’

A low dollar is inflationary, of course. Remember $7 cauliflower? And $30,000 Harleys? We import so much stuff that a serious currency decline ends up being a tax on all families, which is why the central bank usually jacks interest rates to shore it up (which also taxes households). But now with residential real estate wobbling and debt rising will our CBers have the stones to pace the Fed? (US rates are scheduled to rise again Wednesday.)

The loonie’s been pooched for a number of reasons. Trade’s a big deal. NAFTA talks seem to be going nowhere and if we don’t cave to the Yanks, Trump will just slap on his big 25% steel tariff. Then there’s household debt, now 170% of disposable income. At $2 trillion, families owe an amount of money as big as the entire economy. More debt means less consumption, which sucks the goo out of the GDP.

See what we’ve done to ourselves…

The dollar’s weak, too, on recent housing news. As reported here, 80% of Canadian markets are going down. Sales nationally fell 17% and prices have started to erode. Since a quarter of the entire economy is now connected to real estate, investors back off. Meanwhile Mr. Dressup’s recent budget inspired nobody with its gender equality talk while stringing out deficits as far as they eye can see. Sadly there is no plan. Temporary deficits have become permanent. The budget did not balance itself. He likes wearing Nehru jackets. Who knew?

Finally, BC is a big deal. What’s happening there has the potential to spray on everyone. The ‘speculation’ tax on secondary real estate, held by foreigners, Albertans or BC residents is a game-changer in Canadian tax and housing policy. It’s a wealth tax, not an affordability measure, and has a secondary purpose of artificially crashing the property market. This threatens to wreak economic havoc in certain targeted communities, which is why locals in Kelowna, West Kelowna and the District of Nanaimo are freaking out, demanding an exemption.

Non-local property owners, say the politicians on Vancouver Island, “are not speculators. They are important members of our communities. Families who visit year after year, supporting local businesses, paying their fair share of property taxes, and investing in our tourism-based economy.”

Chimes in West Kelowna mayor Doug Findlater: “Suddenly, the development market is freezing up,” The banks are not loaning and some developers are being caught in this already. I’m aware of that. Other developers who haven’t built are just putting it all on hold and just waiting for the air to clear.” Now add to the 2%-per-year spec tax to the 1% annual Van empty house, plus the 5% luxury property tax along with the 20% go-home tax and it’s like the Dippers just stuck Novichok into the loonie. Unholstered BC socialism has the potential to do serious damage. Already begun, apparently.

This is one good reason your balanced and diversified portfolio should be at least 20% in US$-denominated assets. Always. A loonie-only account has significant currency risk, as recent events have proven. Especially in a country where we suddenly snuggle socialists.

Finally, two follow-ups worth mentioning. First, RBC has given up its bullish housing stance, and now grudgingly admits the obvious: the real estate market is in the throes of correction, thanks to the B20 stress test. If only the economists up in the golden tower knew the anguish of loan officers in the branches – where so many borrowers are being punted – their language would be even stronger.

“Looking at average sales over the past four months or so, it appears the new B-20 regulations have had more of an impact than simply bringing activity forward to 2017. Stricter qualifying requirements for uninsured mortgages are keeping some potential homebuyers from entering the market, and a psychological impact is also likely at play. That sellers have moved to the sidelines to see how the market reacts hasn’t helped resale activity early this year.”

Remember, folks, anyone renewing a mortgage and changing lenders, or even refinancing and adding to their mortgage principal, will now have to pass the stress test. That’s a withering 5.14%.

Finally, let’s mock all who bought Bitcoin back in December when it was rocking toward $20,000 a thingy. The advice of this blog was simple. Don’t. It will end in tears.

So far Bitcoin has lost 60% of its value, and may be on the way to an 85% pummeling, according to the technical analysis dudes. The crypto has moved into a ‘death cross’ – which is what happens when one key support level crosses another, signalling big trouble. BTC’s 50-day moving average may soon fall below the 200-day MA, and from there it’s a freefall. Especially now that the big banks have taken the moisters’ credit cards away. If they want to buy, they need cash. We all know the only Mills with money are the ones who come here. And they wouldn’t dare.

229 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 03.16.18 at 6:01 pm

Pink Snow falling in Vancouver.

When I see cases like this one,down the bottom of the tree, I really don’t know what to think.

Picked up for 1.33 ,most likely last September but logged as an October sale and then seemingly put straight back on the market at a price that would ensure you only break even.

Were they hoping someone would bang on their door and offer 1.6

We are nearly 2 years over the madness of Spring Fling 2016 and probably partially because of the tightly controlled message ,a lot of people still seem to think that happy days are here.

Change your calendar people ,there is a lot of uncertainty in the market nowadays.

It seems the best result these guys can hope for is a Pink Draw,meaning that they roughly break even after all expenses are paid.

All these Pink Draws are no good for the sellers, and it also means the buyers weren’t in a lot of detached cases, given the proper information by their realtors to challenge the current asks.

In these types of cases there is only one winner….

M43BC

3531 E 22nd Avenue, Vancouver paid 1.33 October 2017 ass 1.42 asking 1.39

Oct 2:$1,399,999
Mar 14: $1,399,000
Change: – 999.00 -0%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3531-e-22nd-avenue

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMlpCNw==

Waiting for clearance…

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#2 Party on Garth on 03.16.18 at 6:02 pm

“The borrowing and spending binge by Canadian households, businesses and governments (all levels) continues unabated.

At the end of December, 2017 the total debt outstanding in Canada (bottom line of the Statistics Canada credit market summary data table) was $7.603 trillion. At the end of December, 2016 the total debt outstanding was $7.25 trillion. In the 1 year period from the end of December, 2016 to the end of December, 2017 it increased by $353.5 billion. This is an increase of 4.8%.”

http://owecanada.blogspot.ca/2018/03/canadian-total-household-business-and.html

#3 For those about to flop... on 03.16.18 at 6:02 pm

Pink Snow falling in Coquitlam.

Time for a couple more Pink Snow sightings before I make the seasonal switch over to Pink Pollen.

Feels like early Spring in The Couv,not sure what you would call what you guys have going on out East.

Anyway, these guys stumped up 1.08 for this 85 build in May 2017.

They have the assessment on their side but that is counting for less and less as the months tick by in this Stealth Correction.

Richard Sherman just made a move to California and maybe these guys should have gone down for a week or two and thought things through.

No need to rush into things nowadays…

M43BC

1285 Sherman Street, Coquitlam paid 1.08 May 2017 ass 1.12 asking 998

Oct 16:$1,230,000
Mar 14: $998,000
Change: – 232000.00 -19%

https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/1285-sherman-street

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzWFdRWA==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#4 For those about to flop... on 03.16.18 at 6:02 pm

Pink Snow falling in Coquitlam.

It’s a miracle, we have more Pink Snow falling in Coquitlam in 11 degree weather.

I’ll admit when I saw this address I had presumed it was going to be a townhome ,which I like presenting for the sake of variety,but no it is just another detached ,wedged in like sardines in the suburbs.

They paid 1.1 in June 2016 and are asking 1.19 ,to essentially pass the closing costs onto the new owner,with an assessment of 1.08 ,from what I have seen lately they might have their work cut out.

Their latest reduction seems to concede there will be no profit taken and they will probably be relieved to find a home in my Pink Draw Folder.

Get it done soon.

May the Flop be with you…

M43BC

30 1705 Parkway Boulevard, Coquitlam paid 1.1 June 2016 ass 1.08 asking 1.19

Aug 28:$1,249,000
Mar 14: $1,196,000
Change: – 53000.00 -4%

https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/1705-parkway-boulevard/30

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/RDAwMDAyMEhOMw==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#5 Mark, deflation does not exist in Canada! on 03.16.18 at 6:10 pm

#60 CENT LOONIE? and
#Why does Justin Trudeau look odd in his smile?
#Will Garth allow Trudeau to meet him in a lonely alleyway or in a hotel?

#6 sm_yycbksc on 03.16.18 at 6:10 pm

The best part of your blogs are the ending lines. This is one of the best – “We all know the only Mills with money are the ones who come here. And they wouldn’t dare.”

Thanks again garth for helping us out!

#7 friend to cats on 03.16.18 at 6:12 pm

Does a Canadian ETF like VUN achieve essentially the same thing as US denominated ETFs like VTI (which I hold both incidentally) since they would rise with the value of the underlying Dow Indexes it holds?

#8 Smartalox on 03.16.18 at 6:12 pm

Flopper: those are some great picks. Now let’s see if they’ll sell for 20% below assessed, like they do on the West side!

#9 David on 03.16.18 at 6:13 pm

Remember folks, if your GDS is less than 32% and TDS less than 38%, the B20 stress test is irrelevant. Your ability to switch or refinance is unaffected.

#10 espressobob on 03.16.18 at 6:15 pm

Forex is a part of a diversified portfolio, always has been. That would include some US & Int. ETFs that are unhedged to CAD. Anyways.

#11 Kelowna Real Estate is Toast on 03.16.18 at 6:19 pm

Speculation tax looms over 1,800 Kelowna homes .

That would bring up to 900 new listings onto the city’s rental housing market, which currently consists of just over 17,000 units.

Add this to the 2,000+ new rental units coming on line this year.

Game over.

http://www.kelownadailycourier.ca/news/article_1fbcc484-289b-11e8-bfee-e7a1dd466dd9.html

#12 Lieutenant-Governor of BC on 03.16.18 at 6:24 pm

Direct orders from the Queen.

Get rid of Christy. This several months after the Queen makes a nice visit to BC.

http://vancouversun.com/entertainment/books/the-lieutenant-governor-will-see-you-now

#13 Axehead on 03.16.18 at 6:24 pm

Wonder what all this means for car sales and prices? Down and up respectively, I suspect.

#14 Looney Baloney on 03.16.18 at 6:27 pm

Caption contest Mr. G? How about “I’m with stupid”?

#15 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.16.18 at 6:27 pm

Remember, folks, anyone renewing a mortgage and changing lenders, or even refinancing and adding to their mortgage principal, will now have to pass the stress test. That’s a withering 5.14%
………………………

Withering ? hahaha. My first mortgage was at 14% and i was thrilled that I didn’t get caught at 20% like my brother. I don’t think I ever had a mortgage under 7%. No sympathy here. I think the loonie will get hammered by the way, .70 cents for sure, maybe less.

#16 Steve Saretsky on 03.16.18 at 6:28 pm

The plot thickens in Kelowna.

https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/973986927727689728

#17 Smartalox on 03.16.18 at 6:28 pm

Re: the B20 stress test for mortgage renewals,

Does anyone know what happens if the bank asks you at renewal for an appraisal, and it turns out there’s less than 20% equity in your house?

Do you have to cough up the difference? Or has [email protected] been taking extra training in the Red Room, and can offer up alternate instruments of sweet, sweet financial torture?

Instead of simply taking a pound of flesh, to even up the LTV at renewal can she:
– tighten the restraints by adding a risk premium of one or two percent?
– crack the whip and bill for CMHC insurance (rolled into the principal, of course) ?
– extend the agony of payments for another 5 year term?
– deny you a variable rate, in favour of ‘the structure and predictability’ that fixed rates provide?
– others?

Be sure that what ever option you choose, [email protected] is going to make you beg for it.

What? You thought the ‘N’ stood for ‘nice’ did you? No, it stands for something quite different.

But all you hipsters love irony, don’t you?

#18 David on 03.16.18 at 6:28 pm

Portfolios should be 80-100% USA. Canada is a dog (no offence).

#19 BC Real Estate - Sell first Ask Questions Later on 03.16.18 at 6:32 pm

$14,000 per year tax on the typical home in Kelowna.

Housing correction in 3…2…1…boom!

#20 Raincouver on 03.16.18 at 6:33 pm

Welcome to Vancouver:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-realtor-accused-of-making-threats/article30024457/?utm_source=Shared+Article+Sent+to+User&utm_medium=E-mail:+Newsletters+/+E-Blasts+/+etc.&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links

#21 Ardy on 03.16.18 at 6:36 pm

“…it’s like the Dippers just stuck Novichok into the loonie.”

Considering the recent news out of the U.K., I was perplexed whether to chuckle or get offended. My ultimate reaction can only be described as a suppressed nasally fart sounding laugh.

-RD

#22 Brian1 on 03.16.18 at 6:36 pm

If Muelar investigated Muelar he would probably find something.

#23 Reality is stark on 03.16.18 at 6:37 pm

Once the money runs out and you have to give your social justice warrior the bad news expect to hear from her lawyer.
We were able to avoid the 2008 financial crisis due to artificially high oil prices and an idiotic housing market. Couples in Toronto kept spending like drunken sailors and have little financial discipline. These Hollywood housewives won’t take any spending cuts and will run straight to court.
Judges have been told by the Province that they don’t want anyone to end up on social assistance so the wife is to be supported for the next thirty years.
For those guys who bought at the peak you are about to get crucified.

#24 Howard on 03.16.18 at 6:38 pm

But if the truly loathsome Poloz won’t do his job, the measures taken by the BC and ON governments will have to do. As you may have seen this past week, Poloz tried his hand at social policy, arguing that we need universal socialized daycare. Lovely idea; mom and dad drop the toddler off at the local Liberal Indoctrination Centre, filled with portraits of Selfie in his favourite evening gowns, to be raised by strangers….and taxpayers get to pay for it.

Any ETF ideas to play the coming Venezuelization of the CAD?

#25 Popeye the sailor man on 03.16.18 at 6:39 pm

This is a question I have;

If our dollar has dropped say 25% for a round number and our real-estate and other assets stated the same value in CDN does that mean houses have dropped around 25% compared to the rest of the world and so they have become cheaper already and us Canadians have not noticed because we are in our bubble?

So later if our dollar drops to .70 and real-estate drops say 20-30% in some markets would that really mean the price or value of the house is off by as much as 50%?

In a way it is like measuring pressure as PSI or PSIG for the engineers out there.

#26 AJ Hazzi on 03.16.18 at 6:40 pm

Calm yourself my local Kelowna people.

We are working on getting Pitbull and Tony Robbins for REIN 2018 in Kelowna.

We are going to make it REIN.

Don’t worry, the same thing won’t happen here like what happened after Pitbull and Tony Robbins showed their support for real estate in Toronto.

It is different here.

As in, no jobs and even more expensive. That is why we are going to make it REIN.

#27 NotLegalAdvice on 03.16.18 at 6:41 pm

Very exciting news!

I’m in my late 20’s and been checking around for mortgages. It seems banks are still willing to loan out the money, but just not as much.

BMO’s 10 year lock @ 3.5 would have been perfect, but house prices were just too darn high. RBC now offers 3.67 on a 6 year lock.

When the price is right, it’ll be time to buy. You let us know when the time is right Garth, I’ll be on the sidelines patiently waiting!

#28 JettaFlair on 03.16.18 at 6:42 pm

@Flop

Thanks for bringing more attention to Coquitlam. It was my hope you would as it was one of the last bastions of “affordability” a few years ago within a decent commute and might also be a decent indicator of where the market goes.

Prices there appear to be on the downswing at least within the 1-1.4M range and I am starting to see some 1.15’ers enter the email box over the last couple of days. This would obviously depend on the final selling price but if prices are coming in lower would it suggest an attempt to stir up activity, interest and/or to engage multiple offers?

Here are a few examples you may want to look into:
444 GLENHOLME STREET – recently lowered price
1862 COMO LAKE AVENUE
1720 FOSTER AVENUE

#29 waiting on the westcoast on 03.16.18 at 6:42 pm

My Millennial / Gen Z kids asked me what I thought of Bitcoin, ETC. as their friends were “investing” in it.

I told them that I thought the underlying technology had things of potential and value but cryptocurrencies were more gambling than investing. I told them to put in no more than 1% of their income and play with it to get an understanding of the tech and the marketplace. They are down 20% overall but what a great experience. They are learning about the risks, what they bought into and what they “believed” was real about it..

#30 Michael King on 03.16.18 at 6:43 pm

I well remember when the dollar was in the low/mid 60s. That was around 2002/3, not that long ago for us older people. A dollar that low is very hard on retailers. I was working in a nice Vancouver hi-fi shop and we sold some very expensive US products. It was a royal pain dealing with the many clowns who asked us to match prices with Seattle dealers.
The next election is still 19 months away but I know who I will be voting for. Mr. Dressup and crew have got to go. I’ll be voting Conservative for the first time in many years. I didn’t vote Liberal last time which means I voted for… That’s how strongly I feel. Nice to see the recent opinion polls.

#31 Leo Trollstoy on 03.16.18 at 6:44 pm

Remember that we were actually above par with the Yankee dollar just a few years ago – when I told you to go forth and buy up all of Florida -Garth

Best call in the history of this blog

$US all day every day

#32 BlogDog123 on 03.16.18 at 6:44 pm

The illusion of riches… My VUN:TSX goes up and up

while at the local store a new batch of price stickers goes up and up on the shelves to compensate for the dollar slide.

Last time when the Loonie plunged I saw the folks at Lowes with thousands of fresh price stickers ready to be applied.

#33 FATLADY on 03.16.18 at 6:46 pm

Yup TRUMP #5

YOU are certainly pointing in the right direction

#34 AK on 03.16.18 at 6:46 pm

“Well, we’re infested. The loonie has collapsed from 82 cents down to seventy six, and the slide may continue – depending on how the Poloz poodles at the Bank of Canada decide to react.”
—————————————————————-
LMFAO. I am willing to bet that we see a 6 handle before the next election.
These clowns will react by not doing anything.

#35 TRUMP on 03.16.18 at 6:47 pm

<————–

Who is this and how did he get here?

#36 Mark on 03.16.18 at 6:48 pm

Excess consumer debt is deflationary. As it must be eventually repaid. Record amounts of Canadian consumer debt implies a substantial shrinking of Canadian consumer consumption going forward, and that should be profoundly supportive of the Canadian dollar versus its trading partners.

I think most of us remember early 2008, when everyone was lining up behind the concept that the USD$ was soon on its way to zero. The hedgies ran the price of oil up to $140/barrel, far in excess of the price needed to stimulate a massive supply side response. Prices on other inflation hedges were rocketing forward.

Then the consumer debt market collapsed as the lenders reigned things in. The USD$ shot to the moon as US consumers had no credit to buy imports and had to start actually saving again. Containers of merchandise ordered from China stacked up at the ports, their purchasers unable to even take delivery. The price of oil collapsed.

Canada’s sovereign debt position is very favourable compared to that of the United States, and there is no hidden iceberg of an underfunded public pension schema in the Canadian economy as the CPP is fully funded.

In the short term, yeah, the hedgies might think they’re being cute attacking the Canadian dollar. But reversion to fundamentals, the fundamentals being dramatically stronger in Canada will cause them severe losses.

For Canadian RE-backed borrowers, its perhaps the worst of both worlds — higher interest rate spreads because of a belief that falling currency is in the cards which doesn’t actually come to fruition. Blown-out mortgage credit spreads is something that very few front-line bankers or mortgage brokers really took the time to explain to their customers as possibilities, with so many Canadian borrowers shocked that their mortgages rates could go up independently of, and at a rate greater than increases to the BoC policy rate.

” If only the economists up in the golden tower knew the anguish of loan officers in the branches – where so many borrowers are being punted – their language would be even stronger.”

Its a fine line they walk. Confidence must be maintained in the institutions themselves, to preserve the value of equity and debt obligations for investors and maintain institutional viability. Yet the organizations themselves must act rationally on market conditions including the ongoing stagnation in Canadian RE prices in the post-2013 era. What the public facing “economists” of the banks say may very well be quite different than the analysis the proprietary economists provide to management.

#37 Homeless in B.C on 03.16.18 at 6:51 pm

At the risk of bringing on the “Wrath of Garth” I must admit I was watching BNN (the BS News Network) the other day. On the streaming tape was a blurb about some pollster claiming 21% of respondents would give up the right to vote in exchange for no debt! Who does a poll like that?!

#38 Looney Baloney on 03.16.18 at 6:55 pm

I hear coiners claim all the time that coins are the future of the economy and the price of the coin in fiat is irrelevant. Yet they all seem to languish when the fiat denominated price drops. I fail to see how coins have any value when every mom and her cat can ‘mine’ their own version. There are virtually infinite quantities of these.

And yet the utility of the tech, and it’s ability to act as a permanent ledger is undeniable to our governments in our increasingly socialist/communist societies. We now have two of the three 0110s (permanent microchips that can be embedded/etched on a human body for unique identification, and global, decentralized means of verifying the information contained therein). I wonder what the third 0110 will be? Rev 22:20.

#39 Farley on 03.16.18 at 6:55 pm

Looking for advice from any and all:

I am Thinking of getting rid of my financial adviser by transferring my mutual funds into 3 self directed accounts I have recently opened.

Vanguard has an ETF called VBAL that seems very diversified and which continually rebalances itself.

Would I be stupid to gradually sell all my mutual funds and put all my money in this fund?

Thanks for your help.

#40 randy on 03.16.18 at 7:02 pm

Nothing is worse than hearing a chorus of whining coming from property speculators and the wealthy on how unfair the speclation tax is. You guys created this mess by your hunger for multiple homes so don’t blame a govt who has to clean up after your mess. If not being able to own multiple homes is the one issue that drove you over the edge your life must be pretty empty. Get a grip

#41 soost on 03.16.18 at 7:03 pm

I know that you disagree that foreign buyers have a material effect on the market. But I think you can agree that real estate has been fueled by irrational speculation. Therefore, my question to you is this: Do you think that the removal of the foreign buyer’s tax (in Ontario) will further fuel irrational speculation and resume an upward trajectory in prices?

#42 Camille on 03.16.18 at 7:06 pm

Hi. It was so so clear at end of 2017. Pipeline trouble, and more taxes wanted by the government. A government which puts NAFTA and trade on autopilot, it will fix itself, laissez faire. No anticipation, no preparation. Mr. Trump is not kidding. And even technicals, don’t laugh, almost every one uses them. Ask yourself was writing on the wall. And now, lower. Everything comes down to currency.

#43 Zapstrap on 03.16.18 at 7:07 pm

The ‘speculation’ tax on secondary real estate, held by foreigners, Albertans or BC residents is a game-changer in Canadian tax and housing policy. It’s a wealth tax …yeah … it is … and a lotta people out here actually want it. Imagine actually wanting to tax yourself more these days. I dunno …
Spotted a brand new “SOLD” sign up the street from me on a SFH that has been for sale for close to a year. Seems to be coming out of a long hibernation here in SFH LaLa Land … don’t know what the selling prices are though. Gorgeous day again today … and tomorrow …

#44 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.16.18 at 7:07 pm

@#249

“Smokey, just full of vim and vigor or was that vile and vulgar?”
+++++

Nah, just Smokey racking up the untouchable “Deleted” score.

He’s the Gretsky of “Deleted”.
I think Gravy Train is jealous.

#45 I'm dumb on 03.16.18 at 7:07 pm

Garth, can you please clarify “US$-denominated asset”?

Are you referring to buying US assets with US dollars, or does a Canadian ETF consisting of 100% US equity, but traded in Canadian dollars, still count as a “US$-denominated asset”? For example is XUS a “US$-denominated asset”?

#46 crdt on 03.16.18 at 7:11 pm

The property next door sold for $7 million last year, it is back on the market, supposedly because the other neighbor did not want to sell.

Right…

I live in a little sleepy corner of Langley, and believe me, it is not a multi million dollar neighborhood. Junk in yards, (yes mine) houses in good shape, no real landscaping etc..

Supposedly the “owner” bought huge parcels in the neighborhood and would prefer to develop the others instead. True/False?

#47 Huh? on 03.16.18 at 7:16 pm

“artificially crashing the property market” ~ Garth

And the property market was not artificially inflated??

You talk about the government having the ability to suck and blow at the same time and you’re doing the same!

#48 Leftover on 03.16.18 at 7:19 pm

Does anyone think that BC NDPer’s care anything about boomers who own “cottages”? They do not.

They will tinker with the various taxes they’ve imposed but will not change the intent – to tax wealth.

Real estate was the only thing they could get at because they’re bound by federal tax rules regarding capital gains and dividends (and raising the BC rate would affect everyone, not just the rich), and not enough people have investments to actually make a difference.

#49 Huh? on 03.16.18 at 7:20 pm

All these proclamations of serious damage about to happen if these taxes don’t stop is just silly fear mongering.

#50 Nonplused on 03.16.18 at 7:20 pm

Well, it is easy to see that this all ends in tears and it was years ago.

It’s been a long time in Canada where the average family wasn’t being squeezed by high taxes, inflation, and stagnant wages. So they made up the difference by borrowing against the house!

But now our illustrious governments keep adding even more taxes! I think my total so called carbon taxes come to something like $2,000 a year, not counting embedded cost in other product and services, and I don’t think I use much more “carbon” than anyone else. Where is this money supposed to come from? For most people, it comes from the HELOC. When that game ends it’ll have to come from other spending. No more hockey for Jr.

Clearly the situation is that there just isn’t enough money around to pay for everything, on an aggregate scale. Every single level of government is in deficit but so are most households. This cannot continue indefinitely. Something is going to give eventually.

And Dog help us if Turdeau is still in charge if the SHTF does finally arrive, he and Moronreau won’t have any idea what to do. There probably isn’t anything can be done at this point, so anything they try can only make matters even worse.

#51 Ace Goodheart on 03.16.18 at 7:22 pm

RE: “Chimes in West Kelowna mayor Doug Findlater: “Suddenly, the development market is freezing up,” The banks are not loaning and some developers are being caught in this already. I’m aware of that. Other developers who haven’t built are just putting it all on hold and just waiting for the air to clear.”

Yeah that is going to start happening a lot. As people unload their recreation properties in BC at fire sale prices, good luck to anyone who is building more of them. No one wants a 2% per year “surtax” on their assessed value. When govts’ do that, everyone leaves.

Ski resorts, cottage resorts, planned communities, any service that involves owing a recreational property, is doomed to bankruptcy with that new 2% tax law. People are just going to pack up and leave.

Also lots of luck to the resort towns that will soon become ghostly remnants of their former glory days. Tax the crap out of those darn non resident land owners. Yup that is a great idea. And when they all pack up and leave, who is going to pay the property tax and bring money into the service industry economies that support these tourist towns?

Nobody, that is who.

#52 Ex-Cowtown on 03.16.18 at 7:22 pm

JAFA – as they call us out on the Island:

Just Another F—-ing Albertan

But now, suddenly we’re everyone’s BFF? Who would have thought that? Surely not the insular, xenophobic and myopic locals who think that their government pensions give them the right to stop every pipeline and energy project in Canada.

Alberta is selling oilsands oil at $35 to Americans. They refine it and sell it back to us as if they bought at the world price of $60. That’s why gas is skyrocketing in the Lower Mainland. Albertan’s still pay under a buck a liter.

Newsflash BC retirees: Without a world price on oil your pensions will go phhht! Same with you Quebecois; No world price on oil, no $10/day daycare.

And Mr. Dressup ignores economics and seeks social justice. As someone once said “Justice is when everyone gets what they deserve. The problem is that no one wants what they deserve.”

#53 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.16.18 at 7:25 pm

I spent a few months in Asia over the winter. I met and chatted with quite a number of vacationing “westerners” from Uk, Oz, NZ, US, France, Germany etc. A surprising number of them asked me out of the blue “ what’s up with that yoyo u got in charge there in Canada?” I just laughed and called him an empty suit. He seems to be an international laughing stock.

#54 Huh? on 03.16.18 at 7:27 pm

As for Bitcoin… that is largely an Asian country problem. The kings of speculations in all things crypto, real-estate, and African.

Bitcoin can go to zero and it will have a zero impact on Canada’s economy. More money is lost at Ontario’s OLG sanctioned Casinos on a weekend than is lost in Bitcoin in a month.

Let’s keep it real dear author

#55 earthboundmisfit on 03.16.18 at 7:30 pm

Photo need a caption …. “I’m With Stupid”

#56 gfd on 03.16.18 at 7:41 pm

Junior isn’t holding hands with Trump? Or is he?

#57 WUL on 03.16.18 at 7:49 pm

Garth,

With the team you have built at Turner Investments, with Doug and Ryan, and you at the helm, the success of your investment house and this blog is ensured. Like the Habs of ’75 to ’79, all you have to do at the helm is “open the gate and roll three lines”.

So, could there be a blog on the most pressing question of this time in 2018?

How deep will the Leafs go in chasing Lord Stanley’s silver carafe?

My view is that they will be middling. Only one Prairie boy on the roster, Bozak, and nothing to compare with Horton, Armstrong, Keon, Ellis and Imlach.

If you “can’t beat ’em in the alley, you can’t beat ’em on the ice.”

Oh and by the way, my thanks for your efforts.

#58 IHCTD9 on 03.16.18 at 7:50 pm

#248 SunShowers on 03.16.18 at 3:33 pm
#232 IHCTD9 on 03.16.18 at 1:40 pm

If so, I’ll take a $130,000.00 subsidy on a new 2018 Corvette Z06 Carbon 65 Edition, complete with the Z07 upgrade. 7 speed standard transmission please.

———————–

Oh wow, you sure showed me with that well thought out, slam dunk of an argument which was EXACTLY what I was suggesting. You didn’t remove any context or create a ridiculous strawman at all! I mean…if you ignore what I said about USED cars and low income earners who don’t already have one, but that wasn’t really important.

But yea, there is no reason for the government to distinguish between dropping $130k on a 2018 Corvette for a rich smartass and giving a few hundred to a poor family for a 2003 Civic. It’s not like any other taxpayer funded social assistance programs are means tested, so why start with this one, right
————-

Relax mang. It was just a joke.

But if you’re serious, pencil me in for the optional Vortec blower as well. I know for sure there will be times when 650 hp just won’t be enough.

#59 Guy in Calgary on 03.16.18 at 7:51 pm

#17 Smartalox on 03.16.18 at 6:28 pm

So far as I know from working in the industry the bank will not ask for an appraisal at renewal. There would have to be a VERY compelling reason. If the mortgage has been paid as agreed it’s sign here have a nice day.

A great many people refinance their loans upon renewal. They will need to pass the test. – Garth

#60 tccontrarian on 03.16.18 at 7:58 pm

“Justice is when everyone gets what they deserve. The problem is that no one wants what they deserve.” Ex-Cowtown
————————————————————–
Reminds me of something I read a few years ago re financial markets:

“The world isn’t fair generally, but in the financial markets nearly everyone gets what s/he deserves.”

I didn’t quite agree with it back then, but now I’m a believer. Quite simply, the ones that refuse to buy when prices are cheap, won’t be able to make the huge gains by eventually selling high. And the ones that buy into the hype and over-pay (like RE recently), are likely to lose (or even get fleeced!)

TCC

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.16.18 at 7:58 pm

@#51 Ace
“The banks are not loaning and some developers are being caught in this already….”
++++++

I usually gauge the real estate “meltdown” by the unexplained fires in developements or single family houses under construction……..
Ahhhh the 1980’s…..what’s old is new again.

#62 clayton on 03.16.18 at 8:00 pm

Always so hard on bitcoin :) I don’t see a problem with owning a little bit for fun. I bought some a few years ago and it’s up over 50x. My litecoin and eth are similar. And that’s even with the recent dip. Seeing as the price is still equal to the all time high at the end of November, I’m not sure you’ve earned the right to gloat about being right about a crash. Nobody is crying unless you stocked up in December like you say. It still seems sky high to me, considering I bought it for hardly anything. I agree though the price of this stuff does not equal it’s current usefulness. But I think it’ll kinda be like Napster. That service crashed and burned, but it gave birth to the idea that CDs are dead and the internet is the future as a source of music. Spotify, Apple music etc are here today because of Napster. That’s why I continue to at least be a little interested in it. I think crypto will spark some amazing ideas for the future, whether that be currency, or some other tech built on blockchain. Lots of cool ideas out there right now that have nothing to do with currency, but are built on blockchain, which is just a fancy word for decentralized systems that can’t be controlled by a single entity. Whatever though, don’t take my word for it. This pathetic blog doesn’t take anybody’s word for anything :)

#63 45north on 03.16.18 at 8:02 pm

Non-local property owners, say the politicians on Vancouver Island, “are not speculators. They are important members of our communities. Families who visit year after year, supporting local businesses, paying their fair share of property taxes

http://www.burnabynow.com/real-estate/speculation-tax-should-be-eliminated-in-current-form-says-nanaimo-1.23204096

BC Government is on a collision course with its municipalities. Based on the theory that the increase in real estate prices will continue.

Huh: All these proclamations of serious damage about to happen if these taxes don’t stop is just silly fear mongering.

“silly fear mongering” Easy for you to say. If you started a shop in Nanaimo and just signed the lease, you would be looking at the loss of your life savings. I just looked up car dealerships in Nanaimo – they’re a dozen. All these taxes mean guaranteed fewer sales and less work.

Work you know – where you get paid.

#64 Bobby on 03.16.18 at 8:04 pm

The last time the NDP were in power in BC they brought the economy to it’s knees. The only businesses making money we’re moving companies as business picked up and left. The NDP were unceremoniously turfed, left with only two seats.
The NDP is less than 10 months into their new mandate and already business is seriously affected. The downturn in housing could be horrific. Many of those chiming on for houses to crash and become more affordable, may be in for a nasty surprise. It’s hardto buy or rent if you’ve lost your job.
We all knew it would be coming, but who thought the NDP would do it so quickly. And they chose a path that ran counter to their supposedly blue ribbon panel.
Utterly amazing.

#65 PLCs are going up on 03.16.18 at 8:04 pm

Went to lunch with some friends and the conversation hit upon unsecured PLCs and how the big 5 banks were jacking up interest rates in a hurry. One person who had an account at RBC has their rate raised from prime +.75 in the fall to 9% in January to 11.70% this month. They paid it off and closed the account. Another person had a similar story – their PLC jumped to 8.85% in the New Year. If this becomes a trend, a recession will start a lot sooner than later.

#66 Ronaldo on 03.16.18 at 8:05 pm

Whenever I see that photo the first thing that comes to mind are the T-Shirts with the finger pointing sideways with the caption, “I’m with stupid”.

#67 Linda on 03.16.18 at 8:06 pm

Taxing ‘the rich’ is all very well, but ignores the fact that the demand for ‘more’ is not going to make ‘the poor’ any better off. For instance, the 2018 figures for the 100 wealthiest families in Canada are available. Those top 100 collectively have some 375 billion in financial assets. Sounds like a lot, yes? But if all the money was seized from the top 100 & used to pay just the provincial debt of Ontario & BC, it would still be short by 3 billion dollars – Ontario owes 312 billion & BC owes 66 billion so just those 2 provinces have a collective debt of 378 billion. The remaining provinces would still owe over 300 billion in debt & that does not include any debt owed by the territories or the federal government.

My point? That the expectation that taxing the rich will miraculously change the tax burden poorer families have is a fallacy, because even the rich haven’t enough to dig us out of this debt hole we are in. Should the rich pay their fair share? Absolutely. Just don’t think your tax bill will go down when their tax bill goes up. You too will be paying more at some point down the road.

#68 Ronaldo on 03.16.18 at 8:09 pm

This one.

https://www.teepublic.com/t-shirt/761718-im-with-stupid

#69 I'm dumb, but google is my friend on 03.16.18 at 8:13 pm

I think I answered my own question re: comment #45. From the CanadianCouchPotatoe site: “…if you measure your returns in Canadian dollars, it makes no difference whether you use VOO or VFV. Their holdings—and therefore their exposure to USD—are exactly the same, even though the ETFs trade in different currencies.”

#70 TEMPLE on 03.16.18 at 8:15 pm

It’s a wealth tax, not an affordability measure, and has a secondary purpose of artificially crashing the property market.

Saying a lie over and over again does not make it true. The speculation tax is not a wealth tax. Anyone hogging multiple homes to themselves while a bunch of us can’t afford to even have one can just sell their extra houses and avoid the tax. In other words, they keep their wealth and it doesn’t get taxed. Ergo, not a wealth tax.

Nobody, the government included, owes you an affordable house in a major urban area. Taxing people with two properties will not make it happen and is a levy on wealth. Period. Don’t bother responding in order to retain some shards of dignity. – Garth

#71 Fuzzy Camel on 03.16.18 at 8:16 pm

If the BoC gets nervous and starts falling too behind much in rate hikes, and our currency gets too low, Mr. Trump will call it a currency war.

Canada is going to be forced to raise interest rates or Trump will crush our economy with tariffs. Either way reality will hit Canada over the next 5 years.

The liberals who arrogantly laughed as the productive portion of our economy moved over the border will be eating humble pie as rate hikes squish their socialist spending practices.

If Russia doesn’t shut off the US electrical grid this year, I’d go long US dollar, short CAD.

#72 The Great Sam Cooper on 03.16.18 at 8:19 pm

Well known lawyers and their firms along with real estate agents in Vancouver accepting suspicious bank drafts…

Something Peter German is targeting.

Peter German’s report out later this month.

https://omny.fm/shows/the-jon-mccomb-show/big-money-lost-if-crackdown-on-money-laundering-in

#73 CAD is Trash on 03.16.18 at 8:21 pm

Had to actually buy a whole bunch of USD from my company today as I refused to exchange my corporate USD to CAD trash money… On the bright side I now have a load of personal USD that I didn’t have before.

#74 Huh? on 03.16.18 at 8:24 pm

@#63 – 45North

“silly fear mongering” Easy for you to say. If you started a shop in Nanaimo and just signed the lease, you would be looking at the loss of your life savings. I just looked up car dealerships in Nanaimo – they’re a dozen. All these taxes mean guaranteed fewer sales and less work. ”

—-

Sorry no sympathy from me. There are those who suffered badly as prices rose away from them. There are those who will suffer badly as prices fall away from them.
So long as you are winning you and your community were more than happy with a capitalist system, but now that your community stands to lose you want the system to save your butts. Be a man and take what’s coming.

#75 BC_Doc on 03.16.18 at 8:25 pm

#7 friend to cats on 03.16.18 at 6:12 pm
Does a Canadian ETF like VUN achieve essentially the same thing as US denominated ETFs like VTI (which I hold both incidentally) since they would rise with the value of the underlying Dow Indexes it holds?
*********************************************

Yes, both hold US assets— VUN priced in Canadian dollars, VTI in USD. Day to day fluctuations in price of VUN reflect changes in index and forex rate bt loonie and USD.

#76 Long Branch Apprentice on 03.16.18 at 8:34 pm

#25 Popeye the sailor man

Great question! And if the loonie really slides, does that make RE a bargain for foreign investors?

You a power engineer? I’m one test and 3 months of steam time away from being 3rd class.

#77 dakkie on 03.16.18 at 8:36 pm

DELETED

#78 AGuyInVancouver on 03.16.18 at 8:37 pm

#11 Kelowna Real Estate is Toast

Glad to hear there will be more options for British Columbians cashing out of Metro Vancouver to find a home. The gnashign of teeth in the Socred Retread Heartland is most welcome. I vacation in Hawai’i every year but the idea that I’d consider myself “an important member of the community” is laughable. Notleyland will learn there is a price to pay for trying to illegally take BC wines off the menu.

#79 Entitle Ment on 03.16.18 at 8:42 pm

Nanaimo and Kelowna can cry rivers, but the reality is that even locals need to afford a place to live. The 2% tax is not a wealth tax. Anyone that owned a home won the lottery and felt entitled to hundreds of thousands or millions. Clark should never have allowed it. Neither should have Cape Town, Sydney, San Fran, London, Hong Kong or Auckland. They sat on their duffs too long sucking the bong.

The NDP is simply trying to reintroduce some affordable and sustainable housing in BC. Makes total sense. People need to work and be innovative. They don’t need to sit on their asses reading condo porn. I can’t think of a better way to do it other than tax second residences. People can stay in hotels for 2 weeks a year in Kelowna and Sharksville – it would be much cheaper.

Hogan and Jacinda should get awards for stepping up. People are shitting themselves because they know this tax is going to do exactly what it set out to do – put more people in homes.

Taxes have never made assets cheaper. How’s your bong doing? – Garth

#80 Mike Rotch on 03.16.18 at 8:43 pm

“….. BTC’s 50-day moving average may soon fall below the 200-day MA…..”

Classic indicator for equities that move 1 to 3% in a “wild” trading day.

Is it valid/useful here? Bitcoin can and does move more than that in an hour……

It has not happened to BTC in three years. Seems significant. – Garth

#81 mike from mtl on 03.16.18 at 8:48 pm

#7 friend to cats on 03.16.18 at 6:12 pm
Does a Canadian ETF like VUN achieve essentially the same thing as US denominated ETFs like VTI (which I hold both incidentally) since they would rise with the value of the underlying Dow Indexes it holds?

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

yes and yes.

Hold VTI = VUN. VFV = VOO.

If you’re holding in an RRSP or LIRA simply buy the USD version. Otherwise in TFSA buy TSE versions of VFV or VTI, withholding taxes are unavoidable in this container. Personally I hold VFV and VOO.

#82 dr. talc on 03.16.18 at 8:48 pm

#70 TEMPLE on 03.16.18 at 8:15 pm
It’s a wealth tax, not an affordability measure, and has a secondary purpose of artificially crashing the property market.

Saying a lie over and over again does not make it true. The speculation tax is not a wealth tax. Anyone hogging multiple homes to themselves while a bunch of us can’t afford to even have one can just sell their extra houses and avoid the tax. In other words, they keep their wealth and it doesn’t get taxed. Ergo, not a wealth tax.

No one cares about your inability to buy a house.
Try defining speculation, the government wont: it’s a wealth tax, if it was about speculation it would be collected ON CLOSING.

#83 Ronaldo on 03.16.18 at 8:51 pm

#51 Ace Goodheart on 03.16.18 at 7:22 pm

Yep. A good percentage of cottages for example at Big White and Silver Star and probably all the other ski resorts in the province are owned by outa towners. Going to be a rash of for sale signs going up.

#84 Blacksheep on 03.16.18 at 8:53 pm

Temple # 70,

“Anyone hogging multiple homes to themselves while a bunch of us can’t afford to even have one”
—————————–
Sorry, but your inability to compete in our capitalistic society according to the laws of the land, is not their problem.

Make more coin or move.

You sound like 12 year old.

#85 Bobby on 03.16.18 at 8:56 pm

For #70 TEMPLE,

Your lack of financial and economic sense is why inept governments like the NDP in BC come to power. They have their supporters, including yourself, believing that if a million dollar condo is put in the rental market, the rent will be affordable. It won’t. What the market crash will do is throw many who make their living in some form from housing, out of work. Once the dust settles, many will be left wondering why this all happened.
Perhaps there is a reason you can’t afford a home?

#86 tccontrarian on 03.16.18 at 8:59 pm

On more ‘happier’ topics…

An excellent expose on the perils of passive investing – this one on the popularity of the corporate bond-market. A summary quote:

“The massive popularity of passive investing today may have resulted in the greatest inefficiencies and distortions in the corporate bond markets we have ever seen, yet passive investors continue to believe just the opposite – that markets are efficient, and they are likely to receive historical rates of return. It takes a heroic level of cognitive dissonance to maintain such a belief, but the power of FOMO in the financial markets should never be underestimated.”

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4157014-passive-investing-mania-undermined-basic-assumption-part-deux

Enjoy! TCC

More reasons to have an actively-managed, balanced and globally diversified portfolio. – Garth

#87 Puzni on 03.16.18 at 9:01 pm

Hi Garth, you mention BTC how it fell over 60%. That run is not done yet. I have a bet with my dad about a stock symbol ” WEED”
It peaked and fell well more than that but few weeks later it’s back to insane levels again. BTC is here to stay, and it was first to market and it will re bound.

It is gambling, not investing. – Garth

#88 Sue on 03.16.18 at 9:04 pm

4 Looney Baloney on 03.16.18 at 6:27 pm
Caption contest Mr. G? How about “I’m with stupid”?

Nice! Or maybe ‘dumb and dumber’

#89 lawnboy on 03.16.18 at 9:07 pm

Garth

1. I put the battery in the bike today, so its off to “the forks of the credit” soon to check out the shop. (10 C Sunday)

2. The blog reminds me of the CB radio fad way back. It might be democratic but O boy…it can get colourful !

#90 Yanniel on 03.16.18 at 9:11 pm

“This is one good reason your balanced and diversified portfolio should be at least 20% in US$-denominated assets. Always. A loonie-only account has significant currency risk, as recent events have proven.” – Garth

Not necessarily, Having an unhedged ETF in CAD would hedged against the loonie going down.

#91 Ronaldo on 03.16.18 at 9:14 pm

#87 Puzni on 03.16.18 at 9:01 pm

Hi Garth, you mention BTC how it fell over 60%. That run is not done yet. I have a bet with my dad about a stock symbol ” WEED”
It peaked and fell well more than that but few weeks later it’s back to insane levels again. BTC is here to stay, and it was first to market and it will re bound.

It is gambling, not investing. – Garth
—————————————————————
BTC will eventually drop to its true value which is Zero. The energy that is being consumed to “mine” these things is totally ludicrous. This is going to go down in history as the most idiotic scheme/scam ever created.

Everyone is getting in on the bandwagon and the energy consumption and it’s environmental effects will cause countries to put and end to this stupidity. Once peoples power bills start to rise as a result of these things, countries will take measures to put an end to it or the rising power rates will end up doing the job. The whole thing is nutso.

#92 Gravy Train on 03.16.18 at 9:14 pm

#44 crowdedelevator on 03.16.18 at 7:07 pm
“I think Gravy Train is jealous.”

No, just exasperated! But you did make me laugh! :)

#93 Long-Time Lurker on 03.16.18 at 9:19 pm

Limited Sage, you might want to start making a plan for the kind of house you want now. If there’s a fast crash due to fear, you might be able to get a nice place at a discount.

Economystical, I always get a laugh out of your posts. (Reality bites)

Stan Brooks and Alistair McLaughlin, I appreciate your contributions. Can someone tell me why not to go bearish on Canada at this point?

Mutual fund to Vanguard guy: Your mutual fund loses on MER. Going to ETFs is probably a good move but if that Vanguard ETF has a lot of Canadian exposure, you’re not going to like it. I don’t know the details of it. Try a search for one of Garth’s old posts on mutual funds. He gives frank advice on them.

#94 Keith on 03.16.18 at 9:22 pm

Meanwhile, out here in Lotusland the real estate lottery continues to pay out for a few. Love how one guy wanted ten million for his condo valued at less than a million. Greed makes the world go round.

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/judge-rules-vancouver-west-end-condo-assembly-can-be-sold-off-despite-holdout-ownerss-protests

#95 ben on 03.16.18 at 9:25 pm

> It’s a wealth tax, not an affordability measure, and has a secondary purpose of artificially crashing the property market. This threatens to wreak economic havoc in certain targeted communities

I agree Garth, high house prices wreak economic havoc! Thank goodness they are taxing speculation and decreasing land prices, as opposed to, for example, letting people withdraw from their RRSP to ramp land prices – that *is* a bad idea.

The loonie has fell a bit, and that is bad. But guess what? Falling house prices are good news and the future is getting cheaper for the kids.

Demographics are kicking in now. Boomers are giving up the ghost, unemployment is low, forcing up wages and interest rates are on the way up. They are going to be pretty screwed, right at the time when they can do *nothing* about it. Well, as they say: suck it up!

#96 Bond Junkie on 03.16.18 at 9:29 pm

Punzi, sorry to say bud but the WEED/XBT correlation broke down a few weeks ago. It was picture perfect for about 3mo, smart money made a killing. Now they’re on an almost permanent path of divergence, get out while you still can.

-Bj

#97 For those about to flop... on 03.16.18 at 9:30 pm

#8 Smartalox on 03.16.18 at 6:12 pm
Flopper: those are some great picks. Now let’s see if they’ll sell for 20% below assessed, like they do on the West side!

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

#28 JettaFlair on 03.16.18 at 6:42 pm
@Flop

Thanks for bringing more attention to Coquitlam. It was my hope you would as it was one of the last bastions of “affordability” a few years ago within a decent commute and might also be a decent indicator of where the market goes.

////////////////////

Well ,this is a more positive response than the piece of bamboo across the backside I was expecting after nabbing 3 out of the first 4 comments.

After thousands of Pink Snow posts, the writing is on the wall but a lot of people don’t like the manner in which I write.

All this experience has given me the confidence to help people out if I go back home as well.

I don’t have all the details sorted out yet ,but I am thinking of starting something called the Tasmanian Institute of Transparency Syndicate (TITS for short),where I supply material to those looking for sources not constrained by sponsors or protection of profits…

M43BC

#98 acdel on 03.16.18 at 9:33 pm

#78 AGuyInVancouver

Your a funny guy!

I think that you are about to find out what the true consequences are going to be pissing off the province next to you; wine, Kelowna, psst!

#99 Damifino on 03.16.18 at 9:36 pm

#83 Ronaldo

Going to be a rash of for sale signs going up.
———————————-

And who would buy one of those turkeys now that the pool of future buyers is extremely limited? Risk on.

#100 I am dumb on 03.16.18 at 9:37 pm

@Yanniel re: This is one good reason your balanced and diversified portfolio should be at least 20% in US$-denominated assets. Always. A loonie-only account has significant currency risk, as recent events have proven.” – Garth

Yanniel, you reply: “Not necessarily, Having an unhedged ETF in CAD would hedged against the loonie going down.”

That is what I thought, until today. Now I am not sure.

#101 I am dumb on 03.16.18 at 9:39 pm

Yanniel, I assume you meant a US equity fund though, obviously, right?

#102 DON on 03.16.18 at 9:47 pm

“Non-local property owners, say the politicians on Vancouver Island, “are not speculators. They are important members of our communities. Families who visit year after year, supporting local businesses, paying their fair share of property taxes, and investing in our tourism-based economy.”

Chimes in West Kelowna mayor Doug Findlater: “Suddenly, the development market is freezing up,” The banks are not loaning and some developers are being caught in this already.”

And the political angle, all those areas where the councilors, mayors, MLAs are coming out in opposition to the spec/foreign tax are dominated by the BC Corrupt Liberal Party. Expect more. They are the BC liberal farm teams. The west kelowna area elected Christy Clark after she lost her original election seat to now Attorney General David Eby in the 2013 provincial election when she became..Premier after going through an leadership scandal in her own party leadership race.

The BC Liberals are the party that panders to developers, real estate agents and allowed our Province to become a banana republic. The FBI followed the trail to Vancouver. The shit is still coming out.

Their goal is to create animosity between the Green NDP agreement. (Not arguing the spec tax here as even the Libs would implement it if they thought it would secure their POWER) They are the ones that let this extreme, money laundering real estate fest take hold. Some are heavily invested in real estate themselves. One was in the media for owning what 7…8…9 properties at one point and he was the BC Liberal Finance Minister. I expect more liberal strongholds to come out against it.

East Kootney – Liberal cottages/cabins
RDN – MLA who is famous for part of the disability bus pass fiasco (yes taking away free bus passes from the disabled).

The only thing that will keep the unethical politicians in line is the threat of losing power on a daily basis.

Besides this whole housing thing was popping all on its own greedy excess. Development was slowing down already and someone should tell the Mayor of West Kelowna who is heading into Municipal elections in the next 6 months.

FFS!

#103 Gyga on 03.16.18 at 9:47 pm

Garth,
What would be the best approach for my us trading account? I don’t have any us dollars, had some losses so now it is even negative. Should I just buy us $ and deposit or buy on my total margin(us plus can) and later transfer/deposit us? The only valid reason that comes to mind that can support loonie is oil goes to 66+

#104 Reynolds531 on 03.16.18 at 9:49 pm

I wonder if the trumpocolyse guy is ok? He’s awal!

#105 Sideshow Rob on 03.16.18 at 9:51 pm

Speaking of Bitcoin and interest rates and LOCs… I met a guy at a Christmas party and he was telling me about how he made enough money in bitcoin in the past month to buy himself and his GF new Harleys (rarely a mistake). I asked him about the bitcoin selling process as I had heard it was like Hotel California. Easy to check in, a b*tch to get out of. He told me he didn’t bother selling. He just tapped his line of credit for the $60 thousand cost instead. I asked why and he told me with great confidence that bitcoin would be $50 thousand by March and $100 thousand by the end of 2018 so it would be stupid to sell them now. That guy must be sweating bullets right about now. Multiply stories like that a few thousand times across Canada and yes a bitcoin crash could have a significant impact.

#106 CalgaryCarGuy on 03.16.18 at 9:56 pm

Unless you have lived in Alberta or British Columbia most Canadians have no idea of the depth of animosity that there has been between the two provinces for many, many years. The animosity has got worse steadily over time. B.C. has been Alberta’s playground for as long as I can remember and I’m sixty. The amount of money that flows into B.C. every year must be astounding….I’d love to know the number. I work with the general public at a car dealership here in Calgary. I’ve been there a long time and have had many conversations with people I have grown to know quite well. There have been many stories over time of the mistreatment of Albertans from British Columbians. I know of a couple of them that suffered verbal abuse so badly while at their rec property in B.C. that they finally sold the property. My family all live here in Calgary and we have boycotted B.C. for about a decade now. Both my brothers bought rec properties in northwest Montana and we all love going down there. We have to pass through the southeast corner of B.C. to get there but we certainly don’t spend money there. The Montana scenery is the same as B.C., everything is much cheaper, and the locals are very friendly. There are huge numbers of Alberta (and B.C.) plates in Montana. I’m also thinking of finally exploring Saskatchewan this year or next.
Justin Trudeau was not aware of this animosity and that is why he has been caught with his pants down over this pipeline situation. There will likely be a pretty good trade war over it and I, for one, am greatly looking forward to it. Most Albertans I know would turn the oil taps completely off for B.C. right now and leave them off until the pipeline is completed and operational, I kid you not.I can hardly wait for our election next year in Alberta and I am certainly not alone. B.C. should be very afraid of Jason Kenney. Rachel is a pussycat.

#107 BS on 03.16.18 at 9:58 pm

Non-local property owners, say the politicians on Vancouver Island, “are not speculators. They are important members of our communities. Families who visit year after year, supporting local businesses, paying their fair share of property taxes, and investing in our tourism-based economy.”

So if the families who visit only part of the year sell to someone who spends all year there or rent it out to someone who spends all year it will somehow be bad for their community? I bet the local businesses wouldn’t mind more business in the other 10 months of the year.

#108 Slim on 03.16.18 at 9:58 pm

Deron Bilous, Alberta’s minister of economic development and trade just called BC’s NDP government a bunch of S***heads. Good for him…no need to apologize.

#109 Russ on 03.16.18 at 10:04 pm

For those about to flop… on 03.16.18 at 9:30 pm

I don’t have all the details sorted out yet ,but I am thinking of starting something called the Tasmanian Institute of Transparency Syndicate (TITS for short),where I supply material to those looking for sources not constrained by sponsors or protection of profits…

M43BC
====================

Less than one week away from “Pink Flowers” or something like that.

I like it. Please to keep up the good work Floppie.

Great day today.

Had the motorcycle out for the 3rd time this year and stopped by to wash the yacht, since the Club turned the water back on. No fear of freezing the system now.

Where do the rain whiners go when we have 2 weeks of sun in February & March… must be global warming?

I like it.

#110 BS on 03.16.18 at 10:04 pm

Chimes in West Kelowna mayor Doug Findlater: “Suddenly, the development market is freezing up,” The banks are not loaning and some developers are being caught in this already. I’m aware of that. Other developers who haven’t built are just putting it all on hold and just waiting for the air to clear.”

The “air to clear”means lower land prices. It will be the property owners who own the land the developers want who lose out. Undeveloped land is a black hole. It pays nothing and costs lots to hold. It will be sold for what a developer is willing to pay. Especially in a declining market. Nobody wants to hold vacant land when prices are going down. The developers will still build once the property price is right (lower).

#111 DON on 03.16.18 at 10:05 pm

#12 Lieutenant-Governor of BC on 03.16.18 at 6:24 pm

Direct orders from the Queen.

Get rid of Christy. This several months after the Queen makes a nice visit to BC.

http://vancouversun.com/entertainment/books/the-lieutenant-governor-will-see-you-now
*****************

It is funny that the post media (vancouver sun) reporter never investigative any of Ms. Clarks or the BC liberal scandals and no big stories on the corruption. And now are coming out telling stories (and then are still not challenging their former right wing shysters.

This Province needs real investigative reporters in the MSM. Banana Republica British “Columbia”

#112 45north on 03.16.18 at 10:07 pm

Huh? in reply:

Sorry no sympathy from me. There are those who suffered badly as prices rose away from them. There are those who will suffer badly as prices fall away from them.
So long as you are winning you and your community were more than happy with a capitalist system, but now that your community stands to lose you want the system to save your butts. Be a man and take what’s coming.

“So long as you are winning you and your community were more than happy with a capitalist system, but now that your community stands to lose you want the system to save your butts.”

You’re new here. Do a little digging and you’ll see that my connection to the business community in Nanaimo is limited to empathy with my fellow man. Which you have mistaken as membership. That takes a bit of writing skill. Thank you.

#113 Below Assesment on 03.16.18 at 10:11 pm

It is official now: most Vancouver homes now sold below ask, and many below assessment as well.

https://thinkpol.ca/2018/03/16/nearly-3-4-vancouver-houses-sold-asking-february/

#114 Smoking Man on 03.16.18 at 10:17 pm

McCabe fired!

#115 DON on 03.16.18 at 10:19 pm

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.16.18 at 7:58 pm

@#51 Ace
“The banks are not loaning and some developers are being caught in this already….”
++++++

I usually gauge the real estate “meltdown” by the unexplained fires in developements or single family houses under construction……..
Ahhhh the 1980’s…..what’s old is new again.
*****************

House fire on the news in Surrey BC tonight….hmm!

#116 Ian on 03.16.18 at 10:23 pm

Opening Day for the Blog Dogs, Sunday 1 April at Belfountain high noon!!! Who is in?

I’ll even being a gold book for Garth.

#117 dr. talc on 03.16.18 at 10:24 pm

#107 BS on 03.16.18 at 9:58 pm
Non-local property owners, say the politicians on Vancouver Island, “are not speculators. They are important members of our communities. Families who visit year after year, supporting local businesses, paying their fair share of property taxes, and investing in our tourism-based economy.”

So if the families who visit only part of the year sell to someone who spends all year there or rent it out to someone who spends all year it will somehow be bad for their community? I bet the local businesses wouldn’t mind more business in the other 10 months of the year.


If you don’t respect whats remains of property rights,
you are a a typical Marxist.
The ‘community’ is made up of INDIVIDUALS

#118 DON on 03.16.18 at 10:24 pm

#64 Bobby on 03.16.18 at 8:04 pm

The last time the NDP were in power in BC they brought the economy to it’s knees. The only businesses making money we’re moving companies as business picked up and left. The NDP were unceremoniously turfed, left with only two seats.
The NDP is less than 10 months into their new mandate and already business is seriously affected. The downturn in housing could be horrific. Many of those chiming on for houses to crash and become more affordable, may be in for a nasty surprise. It’s hardto buy or rent if you’ve lost your job.
We all knew it would be coming, but who thought the NDP would do it so quickly. And they chose a path that ran counter to their supposedly blue ribbon panel.
Utterly amazing.

***********************************

I can’t stand people screwing with History. The reason the NDP came to power in the 90’s was because the BC Social Credit Party (BC Liberals) ran up the last housing bubble and the crash sent us into recession. Do your research. Getting a job back then was tough.

#119 Duke on 03.16.18 at 10:28 pm

#59 Guy in Calgary on 03.16.18 at 7:51 pm
#17 Smartalox on 03.16.18 at 6:28 pm

So far as I know from working in the industry the bank will not ask for an appraisal at renewal. There would have to be a VERY compelling reason. If the mortgage has been paid as agreed it’s sign here have a nice day.

===============

I can’t believe that you are in the industry and still don’t know banks can request appraisal during renewal. Your past history of not missing any payment doesn’t matter at all. What matters is how much equity is with the property.

#120 For those about to flop... on 03.16.18 at 10:28 pm

#109 Russ on 03.16.18 at 10:04 pm
For those about to flop… on 03.16.18 at 9:30 pm

I don’t have all the details sorted out yet ,but I am thinking of starting something called the Tasmanian Institute of Transparency Syndicate (TITS for short),where I supply material to those looking for sources not constrained by sponsors or protection of profits…

M43BC
====================

Less than one week away from “Pink Flowers” or something like that.

I like it. Please to keep up the good work Floppie

//////////////////

Thanks Russ.

The full calendar goes something like this…

Pink Snow falling in Vancouver…

Pink Pollen falling in Coquitlam…

Pink Lemonade stand in Langley…

Pink Pumpkins being carved in Port Moody…

M43BC

#121 paying my share on 03.16.18 at 10:30 pm

I get a kick out of this false BC/Alberta drama. I live in Victoria and some of my best friends are Albertans, in fact half my family is either there or from there, many in the ground in both BC and Alberta. I have part time neighbours who have primary homes in Alberta, I hope the new tax doesn’t cause them pain. It couldn’t be worse for them than it is for us full timers who have to suck up the NDP government here. As a BC’r who also visits Kelowna in the summers, lot’s of Albertans there, I like Albertans and say welcome, we just need to fix our three governments.

#122 Hiding On the Backstreets on 03.16.18 at 10:35 pm

‘For Sale’ signs popping up in my ‘hood in Olde Stoney Creek. Two more today. People must finally be hearing Garth’s “Get Out” echoes from last year. Takes a while to bounce through Hamilton’s smog. And the sonic barrier of the “mountain”.
I could have been first on my street to sell last year.

Looking at the pitiful appreciation, I would have done better renting and putting my extra $$ in a balanced portfolio, but you’ve go to live somewhere, right? Besides, what if I ended up in a place that wasn’t cat-friendly?

Time to unload? Why bother. I could leave but I’ll just stay, all my stuff’s here anyway, like the once-controversially named Barenaked Ladies sang.

I bought back in 2007. I’m ok. Not making my move out of our lib-left “hell-in-paradise” for a few years anyway. A few more years of debt-slavedome before I join S-Man in the great southland.
With our looney dropping faster than Harvey Weinstein’s pants at an Oscar after party, we Canucks are stuck with each other. Ugly election campaigns and blame game nonsense coming up. Doug Ford or not, once taxes are embedded, they’re rarely rolled back, despite all the tough talk. We’re doomed. I think most blog dogs know it. The libs have moved us too far left, we can’t even see the middle anymore.

A voice in the wilderness….I hear it faintly….barely…”bitcoin…bitcoin…”

#123 crdt on 03.16.18 at 10:36 pm

“Nobody, the government included, owes you an affordable house in a major urban area. Taxing people with two properties will not make it happen and is a levy on wealth. Period. Don’t bother responding in order to retain some shards of dignity. – Garth”

I wonder if people are drawn to Garth’s strong opinions. It could be said that the government doesn’t owe you a tax free environment either, perhaps. When this is all said and done, and this blog is no longer relevant because all the unknowns are known, we might learn how many multiple homes were owned. Till then, fight!

#124 Dolce Vita on 03.16.18 at 10:37 pm

#53 FOUR FINGERS WATSON

Ditto.

Try living in Italy where all those EU tourists flock to. More embarrassing questions to answer about Mr. Dressup.

You get an eye roll from them when talking about Mr. Dressup, mind you, you get an even bigger eye roll for Trump.

My way of deflecting, mercifully.

#125 Dog in The Fight on 03.16.18 at 10:39 pm

When I was a boy we stopped at a BC Gas station, the gas attendant saw my Dad’s Alberta plates, and said that in BC they gave all the bad drivers Alberta plates. My dad never one to be outdone, said that in Alberta we gave the unemployed BC plates.

#126 DON on 03.16.18 at 10:42 pm

#106 CalgaryCarGuy on 03.16.18 at 9:56 pm

Unless you have lived in Alberta or British Columbia most Canadians have no idea of the depth of animosity that there has been between the two provinces for many, many years. The animosity has got worse steadily over time. B.C. has been Alberta’s playground for as long as I can remember and I’m sixty. The amount of money that flows into B.C. every year must be astounding….I’d love to know the number. I work with the general public at a car dealership here in Calgary. I’ve been there a long time and have had many conversations with people I have grown to know quite well. There have been many stories over time of the mistreatment of Albertans from British Columbians. I know of a couple of them that suffered verbal abuse so badly while at their rec property in B.C. that they finally sold the property. My family all live here in Calgary and we have boycotted B.C. for about a decade now. Both my brothers bought rec properties in northwest Montana and we all love going down there. We have to pass through the southeast corner of B.C. to get there but we certainly don’t spend money there. The Montana scenery is the same as B.C., everything is much cheaper, and the locals are very friendly. There are huge numbers of Alberta (and B.C.) plates in Montana. I’m also thinking of finally exploring Saskatchewan this year or next.
Justin Trudeau was not aware of this animosity and that is why he has been caught with his pants down over this pipeline situation. There will likely be a pretty good trade war over it and I, for one, am greatly looking forward to it. Most Albertans I know would turn the oil taps completely off for B.C. right now and leave them off until the pipeline is completed and operational, I kid you not.I can hardly wait for our election next year in Alberta and I am certainly not alone. B.C. should be very afraid of Jason Kenney. Rachel is a pussycat.
********************

HMMM! The only reason I go to Alberta is to change plans on my way across Canada. Edmonton airport is nice! I don’t really care if you visit BC… be a baby about it. I would rather not see homeless people in small town BC. Yes they used to be able to afford the rents but now…not a chance. My home town where rents should be $700 at most for a nice apartment and $2000 plus. These aren’t resort areas, normal back water towns that got out of control.

We don’t want your sticky bitumen in our oceans (I like my summer ocean fishing trips), and the Americans want the keystone pipeline rather than having Canada shipping oil to their enemies in Asia. And why is the price of Alberta oil low if everybody wants it.

On another thought. I have two sets of friends that are moving back to Alberta for the…wait for it…cheaper housing!!!

#127 BS on 03.16.18 at 10:43 pm

It’s a wealth tax, not an affordability measure, and has a secondary purpose of artificially crashing the property market.

It may be a wealth tax but an easy tax to avoid. If someone told me my Apple stock was going to be taxed at 2% per year I would simply sell it. Cash out and do something else with my money. Soon the Apple stock would be priced to reflect the 2% tax. Those that sell quickly in BC will be fine. Those that hold will get slaughtered. In a few years all this will be priced in (lower prices). Plus the NDP get their tax revenue without taxing business or personal income. Fine with me.

How can rational people believe BC real estate can be tanked and everyone’s income is untouched? The Dippers have sure done a number on your head. – Garth

#128 DON on 03.16.18 at 10:47 pm

#66 Ronaldo on 03.16.18 at 8:05 pm

Whenever I see that photo the first thing that comes to mind are the T-Shirts with the finger pointing sideways with the caption, “I’m with stupid”.
************
Looks like he is pointing a finger gun at Trudeau. Wasn’t this right after Trudeau picked Hilary and had to eat crow and meet the Trump card.

#129 Dolce Vita on 03.16.18 at 10:54 pm

#52 Ex-Cowtown

My old home Province.

You have to love good ‘ole AB payback, justice and logic.

That was good, especially the BFF part.

Look at it this way, as their RE market corrects (no more free time SJW HELOC money to go traipsing around carrying anti-oil placards ’cause CPP & OAS “ain’t” enough), their jobs situation worsens because of RE…they’ll be more accommodating to AB “dirty oil”.

And, they won’t be able to afford their Peruvian Alpaca Zamfir Pan Flute SJW car coats anymore when appearing on TV and dissing oil tankers with scenic English Bay or wherever in the background.

You’ll get the last laugh, more so than now.

Talk with their hands on their Pan Flute + 420 bag, vote with their hands on their Pocketbooks (actually, the pocketbooks of the rich)…the usual.

#130 Smoking Man on 03.16.18 at 10:54 pm

116 Ian on 03.16.18 at 10:23 pm
Opening Day for the Blog Dogs, Sunday 1 April at Belfountain high noon!!! Who is in?

I’ll even being a gold book for Garth.
……

To high a price on my head to make any live appearances.

#131 PastThePeak on 03.16.18 at 10:54 pm

I hate to admit it, but T2 was right about one thing – Canada is “not a real country”. It seemed to be heading there, making amazing progress in the first 3/4s of the 20th century, but it started to stall out in the 70’s (seems like Expo 67 was the high point).

Quebec separatism and socialism/debt/activist gov’t came to dominate politics. Provincial infighting began brewing in earnest. The end was starting to look nigh back in the mid 90’s, but the country collectively pulled itself back from the brink over 15 years, although it didn’t really solve the core issues.

Economically, many things are worse now than in the early 90’s – total gov’t debt (fed + provinces + municipalities) is higher as % of GDP, consumer debt is the highest ever as % of GDP, and personal tax rates are higher. The only saving grace for gov’t is the much lower interest rates.

Perhaps it is just more cynicism with growing older, but the social fabric of the country seems more fragile as well. More animosity between provinces / cities, animosity between generations, the whole house lust culture in parts of the country.

I am not sure that Canada will emerge whole from the economic decline that is coming our way.

I am thinking that $USD/Euro € should be at least 50% of a risk adjusted balanced portfolio going forward.

#132 Silver Star and Big White on 03.16.18 at 11:00 pm

Albertans will sell – check.
Prices will crater – check.
A M E R I C A N S will buy for a song.
And Comrade Horgan will have helped affordable housing how exactly?
wtf does affordable housing have to do with ski condos an hour out of town?
Slow clap dippers, s l o w c l a p

#133 Bobby on 03.16.18 at 11:04 pm

#118 Don

Governments don’t run up housing bubbles, people do. They panic and pay more for houses than they are worth. Eventually it all comes crashing down. Sound familiar.

The same underlining theme is it is always someone else’s fault.

#134 Where's The Money Guido? on 03.16.18 at 11:05 pm

DELETED (libel)

#135 Dolce Vita on 03.16.18 at 11:17 pm

Somebody had to have voted the BC NDP in, but you wouldn’t know it from reading the Comments section here, well, other than the odd e-mail Horgan with kudos brave soul.

They got voted in to crush RE in BC, plain and simple (and ya #52 Ex-Cowtown, to crush AB oil pipelines, sorry).

People were pissed off because they couldn’t afford a home even when making a good salary and having saved a fair bit of money for a downpayment (and the crush pipeline people didn’t want their RE values affected by an oil spill in their Tesla, Volvo, Doggy Park, Grouse Grind, > 4 cm diam./2 m tall quasi-forested, private habitats).

And now, all the Municipalities and local entrepreneurs are chiming in: NIMBY (incl. the RE oil pipeline haters).

Too late for that. You got what you voted for.

#136 Dolce Vita on 03.16.18 at 11:22 pm

#120 For those about to flop…

I like “Tasmanian Institute of Trust for Transparency And Truth”.

#137 Smoking Man on 03.16.18 at 11:24 pm

Me and the boys are going to be officially outed soon.

http://realnewsrightnow.com/2017/09/white-house-says-trump-in-frequent-contact-with-extraterrestrials/

#138 PastThePeak on 03.16.18 at 11:28 pm

How low will the Loonie go?

While I don’t believe in the apocalyptic views that it will head into the 50c range, I don’t see how it will stay above 70c in the intermediate (and maybe longer) term. What are the fundamentals to keep it up? A return to the 60-69c range seems inevitable.

It was only USD weakness that had it above 80c (CAD continued to trade lower with the Euro – now at 1.61 to CAD), and now currency traders are getting the true feeling for the depth of Poloz dovishness, and together with NAFTA risks + T2 risks + US tax implications, the movement is clear. Oil isn’t going to head much higher than it already is – more likely to go lower.

My gut feeling is that Poloz’s “plan” is now fundamentally rooted in “hope”.
– Hope that Canadians will finalize listen to his great reason and use the low rate environment to stop adding to debt & begin to pay it down, despite 1.5 decades of evidence to the contrary.
– Hope that a low Loonie will keep the country’s export businesses alive long enough for some economic miracle to occur (perhaps gender & diversity to fulfill the Liberal belief that this will grow the economy more than any other measure).
– Hope that a future US administration will want to be nicer to Canada.

Can’t say I am very hopeful…

#139 Mark on 03.16.18 at 11:35 pm

“I can’t believe that you are in the industry and still don’t know banks can request appraisal during renewal. Your past history of not missing any payment doesn’t matter at all. What matters is how much equity is with the property.”

If its CMHC subprime insured, then there’s no reason to ask for an appraisal. As the CMHC subprime mortgage insurance remains valid no matter what the price of the house. However, if the mortgage is uninsured, and the region is known to have a systemic drop in housing prices, then an appraisal can be a weapon the bank uses to force a borrower into paying a much higher spread in reflection of the dramatically greater risk posed.

Borrowers who were so pleased, just a few years ago, to be able to finance with a large discount against the ‘posted rate’ may very well find themselves, even in the absence of higher benchmark bond market rates, paying higher rates. A good chunk of the higher realized spreads directly accruing to the bottom line of the banks and thus to shareholders as dividends and buybacks.

So ironically, this creates a situation where the banks may very well end up predating more on lower ratio borrowers (ie: those between 40 and 70% LTV in particular) than those who started with 80% LTV loans and for which the bank probably arranged for the purchase of, or required CMHC subprime insurance.

#140 renter in Surrey on 03.16.18 at 11:36 pm

# 127

15 years ago houses in Coquitlam were around $250K and people had jobs and incomes

I say let’s make go-home tax 100% and speculation tax 10% per year
let it burn…

#141 Stan Brooks on 03.16.18 at 11:38 pm

#238 MF on 03.16.18 at 2:27 pm
#187 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 03.16.18 at 10:09 am

Stan Brooks

-No we know, we just don’t care one iota about “snowbirds and expats”.

MF

============================

You are intellectually and logically challenged.

It is your future pension (CPP, OAS) that is being destroyed by the collapsing loonie as the inflation roars and ‘official’ CPI is 1-1.5 %.
CPP contributions have just increased. Congratulations, you will be paying much more and getting much less in the many years to come.

And your purchasing power is diminished as most of groceries are imported. Go to a Canadian store and find any made in Canada goods. Good luck in that.

Are you saying that you don’t care about your future CPP/OAS pension? Or about the prices of pretty much everything at the stores?

Or you are on vegitation like a plant which pretty much
corresponds to the intellectual level and logic of your posts?

No need to worry about expats, if they are smart enough to move out and earn in USD/Euroe do you believe they will be stupid to stay in CAD?

As for the snowbirds they will be screwed, true.

You are the perfect representation of the average ‘I don’t care as far as it does not concern me’ crowd which unfortunately comprises majority of Canadians these days who think that they are somehow ahead in the world and are helping me understand/explain why stupidities like the BOC governor (rate hikes drive inflation) fly in this place.
And we face spectacular implosion of once a great place.

There should be tax stupidity. Wait, there already is, all the carbon taxes, tax on tax, overhead of Canadian services including gas, cell phones, .. you name it.

Proudly paid for by the sheeple.
At least Toronto Raptors rock.
Too bad you can’t afford a ticket.

#142 Dolce Vita on 03.16.18 at 11:39 pm

#106 CalgaryCarGuy

I think you meant to say:

“…he has been caught with his Sari down…”

#143 renter in Surrey on 03.16.18 at 11:45 pm

#133

Government do run up bubbles by holding near 0% interest rates and insuring mortgages and exempting capital gains

#144 Stan Brooks on 03.16.18 at 11:49 pm

#131 PastThePeak on 03.16.18 at 10:54 pm
I hate to admit it, but T2 was right about one thing – Canada is “not a real country”. It seemed to be heading there, making amazing progress in the first 3/4s of the 20th century, but it started to stall out in the 70’s (seems like Expo 67 was the high point).

Quebec separatism and socialism/debt/activist gov’t came to dominate politics. Provincial infighting began brewing in earnest. The end was starting to look nigh back in the mid 90’s, but the country collectively pulled itself back from the brink over 15 years, although it didn’t really solve the core issues.

Economically, many things are worse now than in the early 90’s – total gov’t debt (fed + provinces + municipalities) is higher as % of GDP, consumer debt is the highest ever as % of GDP, and personal tax rates are higher. The only saving grace for gov’t is the much lower interest rates.

Perhaps it is just more cynicism with growing older, but the social fabric of the country seems more fragile as well. More animosity between provinces / cities, animosity between generations, the whole house lust culture in parts of the country.

I am not sure that Canada will emerge whole from the economic decline that is coming our way.

I am thinking that $USD/Euro € should be at least 50% of a risk adjusted balanced portfolio going forward.

————————————

We are running on credit fumes in the last 12-15 years, since at least 2004.

The economy or whatever was left from it slowly melted and became non-competitive due to capital flow into real estate.

So we bet the house on housing speculation and cheap labour, this is what the current ‘economy’ pretty much is with almost nothing left outside of housing and cheap labout to US, now both in decline thanks also to US policies.

Any thoughts that importing cheap unqualified labour (as no qualified person will come here any more) to keep that Ponzi going is just delusional.
And hey, they plan to bring in 45 k immigrants yearly.

To do what, chips for US with NAFTA in jeopardy?

I would not keep anything in CAD or TsX. nothing. period.

CAD will be destroyed, economy sucks so no inflows into TSX that will under-perform, except some commodities.

Locals are brainwashed into ‘economy is good’ but unfortunately have no money (only debt) to support stock valuations.

US and Europe Markets will be stable. Emerging markets will rise faster.

While we face our lost 2-3 decades.

#145 waiting on the westcoast on 03.16.18 at 11:54 pm

How can rational people believe BC real estate can be tanked and everyone’s income is untouched? The Dippers have sure done a number on your head. – Garth

It appears most people are better at checkers than chess…

#146 Dolce Vita on 03.17.18 at 12:00 am

Oddly, based on BC regional Comments here today (2017 BC Prov. Election results):

Kelowna Lake Country = Liberal
Kelowna Mission = Liberal
Kelowna West = Liberal

and environs:

Vernon-Monashee = Liberal
Penticton = Liberal
Shuswap = Liberal
Kamloops-South Thompson = Liberal

etc.

And they wonder why the BC NDP is messing with their Tourism based economy…

#147 Bottoms_Up on 03.17.18 at 12:03 am

#50 Nonplused on 03.16.18 at 7:20 pm
——————
Yes! Our economy has been kept sound by home prices rising far faster than inflation. For years home equity has been financing consumer spending. This is all about to change. It’s really unfortunate our policy makers were so short-sighted and loosened borrowing criteria. Now we have two lost generations–one with massive debt levels that will never be paid back, and another that can’t find good paying jobs and can’t afford to leave mom’s basement. Who is left to spend into the evonomy? If I was a betting man I would be heavily short the Canadian economy. Time to pay the piper.

#148 Stan Brooks on 03.17.18 at 12:07 am

#2 Party on Garth on 03.16.18 at 6:02 pm
“The borrowing and spending binge by Canadian households, businesses and governments (all levels) continues unabated.

At the end of December, 2017 the total debt outstanding in Canada (bottom line of the Statistics Canada credit market summary data table) was $7.603 trillion. At the end of December, 2016 the total debt outstanding was $7.25 trillion. In the 1 year period from the end of December, 2016 to the end of December, 2017 it increased by $353.5 billion. This is an increase of 4.8%.”

http://owecanada.blogspot.ca/2018/03/canadian-total-household-business-and.html

——————————–

So we borrow over 10 k per person per year just to ‘stay afloat’.

keep in mind, we also spend saved money as people dip into their savings, unable to keep with the inflation that the Poloz does not see.

You know, they will be looking for someone to pay this money back.

Make sure it is not you.

#149 downthedon on 03.17.18 at 12:09 am

Garth

Couldn’t someone holding all maple etf’s simply hedge their position by purchasing a similar amount of USD/CAD forex position

#150 Bottoms_Up on 03.17.18 at 12:16 am

#67 Linda on 03.16.18 at 8:06 pm
———————–
But don’t you think those 0.01%’ers have had so much clout over rules and regulations that they have effectively enriched themselves while transferring debt to the public? Look at Trumps tax cuts…how does it make sense to cut taxes while increasing government borrowing and spending?

#151 DON on 03.17.18 at 12:27 am

#133 Bobby on 03.16.18 at 11:04 pm

#118 Don

Governments don’t run up housing bubbles, people do. They panic and pay more for houses than they are worth. Eventually it all comes crashing down. Sound familiar.

The same underlining theme is it is always someone else’s fault.
*************************

In BC a certain government allowed massive money laundering and criminal activity take hold of certain housing markets for the past so many years. They allowed realtors to twist the truth, fake the data or narrative…holding the truth hostage for a commission. Developers with ties to council members, if not sitting on council themselves, it has all been in the news recently. One business CEO selling phones to the criminal underworld. WTF

We definitely know that no body did anything to stop this housing bubble.

The right wing promises the riches of the world and exits when the music stops leaving the left wing to promise the world in cleaning up the mess. Or vice versa depending on where you live. They love to divide and conquer and blame their opponents for their own shortcomings.

Politics is everywhere. They love it when you blindly believe what they say to be the ultimate truth.

#152 Dolce Vita on 03.17.18 at 12:29 am

#132 Silver Star and Big White

“wtf does affordable housing have to do with ski condos an hour out of town?”

Nothing.

However, your riding and environs voted Liberal = Something to the BC NDP.

Apparently, payback is a bitch.

Having said that, seeking absolution from the BC NDP for their tax the tourists or as Garth would say the “Go Home Tax” has the same chance of succeeding as a snow ball in hell.

Politics as usual in BC but having taken a turn towards nasty from my point of view “tax the rich”.

#153 AACI Home-Dog on 03.17.18 at 12:34 am

#132 Silver Star and Big White on 03.16.18 at 11:00 pm

good synopsis…I never thought of it that way…

#154 rc99ar on 03.17.18 at 12:35 am

@131 PastThePeak. I am like minded. Take a look at Japanese companies also. Japan has a terrifying debt to GDP, until you find out who actually owns the debt. The currency historically reflects this as a safe haven status with good reason. Look at how much of our debt is foreign owned and how fast that is changing, compare it to trade deficits and look at the trend in other countries. The ship isn’t probable to sink, but Im gonna scout out some lifeboats regardless.

#155 DON on 03.17.18 at 12:46 am

If these are still the good times…I wonder what the bad times will bring? All the following headlines are from CBC today.

”Loonie sinks to 9-month low as it hits worst week in over a year.”

”The Toronto effect: Sales and average prices for Canadian homes fell in February read.”

”Record high debt to income ratio inches lower, to 170.4% at the end of last year read”

Peak Debt?

”Canadians had more complaints than usual about their banks last year, ombudsman says”

”Growing grey wave set to crash on Alberta trades”

”WestJet flight attendants claim they’re paid less than minimum wage”

”Former Equifax executive charged with insider trading for selling shares before breach news broke”

”BMO joins TD in banning customers from buying bitcoin on credit cards”

”Microplastics found in 93% of bottled water tested in global study”

#156 JettaFlair on 03.17.18 at 12:48 am

@Smartalox #8 @ Flop #97

I went for a trip down memory lane to see what become of some Coquitlam sales. It looks like there is a decent mix of above and under asking but not by large margins either way. At least from what I have available as a civilian.

Not sure if the sellers flipped or flopped, just a small snapshot of the activity in an area.

**********************************

979 JARVIS STREET Coquitlam
$1,399,900 LP
$1,390,000 SP

1307 WILLOW WAY Coquitlam
$1,388,000 Original Price
$1,299,000 (RE-)Listing Price
$1,263,000 Selling Price (2/20/2018)

404 MADISON STREET – Coquitlam
$1,299,000 OP & LP
$1,350,000 SP (2/18/2018)
* This one went above. Good job to the sellers.

1731 HARBOUR DRIVE – Coquitlam
$1,388,000 OP & LP
$1,405,000 SP
* Good job sellers!

458 MONTGOMERY STREET – Coquitlam
$1,238,000 OP
$1,210,000 LP
$1,200,000 SP (3/7/2018)

325 SEAFORTH CRESCENT – Coquitlam
$1,375,888 OP & LP
$1,335,000 SP (2/22/2018)

659 SCHOOLHOUSE STREET – Coquitlam
$1,198,000 OP & LP
$1,235,000 SP (2/22/2018)

#157 Red Carpet on 03.17.18 at 2:07 am

Runway-red tie boldly holds its own while T2 dips toe..

Telling, isn’t it?

#158 DON on 03.17.18 at 2:10 am

Here’s one more!

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/even-house-rich-homeowners-agree-vancouver-has-an-affordability-problem/article3828540
6/

Support for the government budget measures to tackle affordability. Are Grand Parents and Parents trying to live near the kids but the kids are priced out ALL over the place? Shift happening?

#159 Leo Trollstoy on 03.17.18 at 2:34 am

Mark77 Mar 19th, 2014 4:44 pmI believe we will be going back to parity and beyond, on the strength of the fundamentals (namely, domestic debt deflation, a strong export sector, and external demand for Canadian dollars and Canadian assets) … The US economy does not appear to be growing in any meaningful way, and the number of people employed is not meaningfully improving.
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/canadian-dollar-its-ups-downs-1442859/9/#p18590093

4 yrs ago when this was posted grandpa wayne Pitzel passed away and would never see $US $C parity again

i told grandpa pitzel: $US all day every day

#160 jane24 on 03.17.18 at 3:42 am

Here in Britain as the token Canadian at a social gathering I get a lot of negative comments about Trudeau Junior. People are mystified as to how he got elected. I explain that he promised legal weed to the kids and then they are mystified as to how that swings an election. His name means nothing here. No-one has heard of Pierre Trudeau the long ago leader of tundra central but we all laughed at the recent India pictures of his son.

They think Junior was elected on his looks. A British comedian Tracey Ullman has a TV show where a constant sketch is her as Angela Merkel having the hots for the Canadian Prime Minister. Check it out on youtube as very funny but that is all anyone knows about Canada’s current leadership. In my 25 years here the only Canadian politician known to the average person was Brian Mulroney and nobody laughed at him.

#161 Stock Picker on 03.17.18 at 4:24 am

Agreed on all, more or less, but you forgot to mention the big one , the loss of ninety percent of all foreign investment is , or was, oil and gas plus resources. Hundreds of billions of capital flight in foreign investment is gone and it isn’t coming back under the Trudeau- Butts Liberal regime.

Billions in tax revenue and hundreds of thousands of jobs, gone. Here is no development only consolidation, share buybacks, no new projects. No mines means no minining jobs and all this means that no foreign entity has any need to buy local currency.. this dwarfs the housing and personal debt market in repercussions for the currency.

$C bears aren’t reading tea leaves. Trudeau and Buttes keep reiterating the term “transition”. Investors are listening. They mean to shut down all industry, it’s what they keep repeating….you’d better listen, because industry executives are.. A great many are leaving Canada personally, you should know what that means.

If foreign companies think/know that Trudeau will kill any expectation of development, which he says he will do, then no one is going to spend a dime in this context ountry, which is what’s happening now. Foreigners don’t give a crap what’s being lost in housing or debt. It’s not a question of if the $c hits 60 cent s, it’s when. I say this year.

#162 maxx on 03.17.18 at 7:03 am

#5 Mark, deflation does not exist in Canada! on 03.16.18 at 6:10 pm

“#Why does Justin Trudeau look odd in his smile?”

Because he can’t get more than a toehold on the red carpet. Money doesn’t get you in everywhere.

#163 down and Out on 03.17.18 at 8:08 am

Great stuff this blog ,where else can I go to get the pulse of the average Canadian across the country ,I feel a connection with fellow citizens I can’t get from the CBC, Global CTV etc. I do wonder how good they got it on the east coast because of lack of whining about taxes ,real estate prices ,local government etc.

#164 Gravy Train on 03.17.18 at 8:25 am

#141 Stan Brooks on 03.16.18 at 11:38 pm
“Or you [referring to MF] are on veg[e]tation like a plant which pretty much corresponds to the intellectual level and logic of your posts?”

Ah, yes, that was good for a laugh! I come to the comment section of this blog now, strictly for the comedy. Garth, I think I’m addicted to this blog; maybe I should seek an addiction support group! :)

#165 Trumpocalypse2018 on 03.17.18 at 8:28 am

BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH!

The beginning of the end, for Trump and the World:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/16/politics/andrew-mccabe-fired/index.html

#166 the Jaguar on 03.17.18 at 8:33 am

Yeah that is going to start happening a lot. As people unload their recreation properties in BC at fire sale prices, good luck to anyone who is building more of them. No one wants a 2% per year “surtax” on their assessed value. When govts’ do that, everyone leaves.

Ski resorts, cottage resorts, planned communities, any service that involves owing a recreational property, is doomed to bankruptcy with that new 2% tax law. People are just going to pack up and leave.

—————————–
@51 Ace Goodheart

Couldn’t agree more. Even if the Dipper government suddenly came to their senses it is likely ‘too little, too late’. They can’t be trusted, not that any elected government in BC ever could.

#167 Gravy Train on 03.17.18 at 8:39 am

#130 Smoking Man on 03.16.18 at 10:54 pm
“To[o] high a price on my head to make any live appearances.”

There’s no price on your head, Smokey! We just want to tape your mouth shut! After all, the pillory has fallen out of fashion! :)

#168 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 03.17.18 at 8:40 am

DELETED

#169 Wrk.dover on 03.17.18 at 8:49 am

#160 jane24 on 03.17.18 at 3:42 am
Here in Britain as the token Canadian at a social gathering I get a lot of negative comments about Trudeau Junior. People are mystified as to how he got elected. I explain that he promised legal weed to the kids

—————————————-

I thought he won on an election reform promise, broken when he realised he would not have won at all had the process been reformed prior to that event.

#170 Wrk.dover on 03.17.18 at 8:57 am

Another thing, I remember Nafta being shoved down our throats at that time in history, because Mexican demographics were indicating a huge cohort of work age people coming on stream that would need either jobs or international welfare/relief for Mexico, lest there be an ugly uprising instead. Nafta supposedly the less expensive solution.

Can’t stop the train now, mid-journey.

#171 Ace Goodheart on 03.17.18 at 9:12 am

One of my long time “dot.com” bubble waiting to burst companies:

http://driving.ca/auto-news/news/motor-mouth-the-dangerous-riddle-that-is-teslas-elon-musk

Loses a reported $8000.00 US per minute.

Builds around 100,000 cars per year. Has a market cap similar to GM, Ford, Chrysler.

CEO is apparently paid based on how much he can increase the market cap (not by how much the company earns, if he was paid based on earnings, he’d owe billions every year, as the company never makes money).

Look for this company to tap markets in April 2018 for billions more, which they will promptly lose, at the rate of thousands of US dollars per minute, throughout 2018.

People have put their life savings into this. People have mortgaged their houses to be part of it.

#172 dharma bum on 03.17.18 at 9:35 am

See what we’ve done to ourselves…
-Garth
——————————————————————–

All you debt pigs and consumption addicts out there better cool it.

Time to start paying off those HELOCS immediately.
Time to stop buying crap to fill your houses and empty lives.

“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.”

– Buddha

#173 Smoking Man on 03.17.18 at 10:09 am

Gravy Train on 03.17.18 at 8:39 am
#130 Smoking Man on 03.16.18 at 10:54 pm
“To[o] high a price on my head to make any live appearances.”

There’s no price on your head, Smokey! We just want to tape your mouth shut! After all, the pillory has fallen out of fashion! :)
…..

First they shut you up, then come for your guns, then off to the gas chamber.

I will not go quietly into the night. I know human nature and history.

#174 MF on 03.17.18 at 10:17 am

141 Stan Brooks on 03.16.18 at 11

No I care. I care immensely. Read my posts from 2015. Myself, and many many others on here, saw the warning signs but were powerless.

The Economy is slowing. No businesses have any confidence in Trudeau. He is seen as a socialist with no experience and no cohesive plan. An international laughing stock.

Obviously This is why the cad is going down.

What I don’t care about is the impact on a low cad on expats, who cannot say one positive about our country.

MF

#175 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.17.18 at 10:18 am

@#108 Slim
“Deron Bilous, Alberta’s minister of economic development and trade just called BC’s NDP government a bunch of S***heads. ”
+++++

A politician with the last name that resembles “Bileous”?
Luv it.
However the sight of two NDP govts taking shots at each other is quite amusing.
Dont get too caught up in the political “name calling”.
Your province has an election coming up next year… The “Orange Crush” is tanking in the polls….
Your economy is sucking rather than blowing….
Never underestimate the depths any politician will stoop to for an election win.

And after all is said and done ( federal decision, the provinces’ hissyfits mean nothing) the pipeline will be built) everyone will fall all over themselves to apologize and hug each other.
THAT is when I’ll feel “Bileous”

#176 Penny Henny on 03.17.18 at 10:35 am

Where’s Whacha Minnie?

#177 BC govt on 03.17.18 at 10:42 am

Repairing the damage that THEY helped fuel .
Go ahead and call it a ‘wealth tax ‘. Who cares ?

It, along with other recently implemented moves , will punish the housing market . Collateral damage ? Of course

Don’t like ? Run for govt .,,or blog ? Lol

#178 akashic record on 03.17.18 at 10:48 am

Canada has 39 billionaires.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-16/mapping-countries-most-bilionaires

Who are they and more importantly, how did they make their wealth?

This can give some interesting clue about Canada’s economy as a whole.

#179 Long Bong Silver on 03.17.18 at 10:48 am

Taxes have never made assets cheaper. How’s your bong doing? – Garth

I read something about TO and Van Detached prices stalling and dropping. People wouldn’t be worried if they didn’t think the tax is going to make a difference.

Let’s also remember that this tax is not on primary residences – it’s targeting those sitting on vacant homes. It’s an absolute no brainer for sustainable living. The little old ladies that cannot afford the tax on their second homes should sell, stay in a hotel for 2 weeks a year, and put it all on Tesla in their TFSA.

Comrade’s mistake was to call it a spec tax. Branding makes a big difference and has thrown everyone off. I would almost bet my life this will drop prices and put more people in homes.

We don’t all need to be uber drivers, airbnb’rs and condo kings in our lives. We did just fine before they came along. Let’s rather learn, be innovative, productive and develop a sustainable future.

#180 Robo Dakkie on 03.17.18 at 10:51 am

I wonder if that dude knows that you delete every one of his posts. I almost want to look at the comments daily just to see if he slipped one through.

#181 Shubra on 03.17.18 at 10:52 am

Mr Dressup will post some more #selfies hoping to stimulate Canadian housing

He should dress up in women’s clothes to show his support of gender neutrality

#182 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.17.18 at 10:56 am

@#160 jane420
“I explain that he promised legal weed to the kids….”
++++++
Perhaps you should lower yourself to revisit the “colonies”.
Harper’s arrogance and unpopularity nuked the Conservatives at the polls.
Nothing more.
And if your uninformed(politically ignorant?) British friends cant grasp that scenario.
Try this example at your next garden party between cucumber sandwiches and tea.

Current unpopular British PM Theresa May is your “Harper”.
Or God help Old Blighty
Opposition Pub crawling clown Nigel Farage is your “Trudeau”.

Theresa May’s days are numbered and only she cant see it coming.
The axe( Brexit) falls this time next year and the Brits are woefully unprepared for it.
I cant wait to see the blundering , comical, grandstanding faux pas from the next British PM ( socialist grandstander Boris Johnson? Fill me pint Farage?)
So tell your Brit friends not to be too smug about our clownish PM when they have so much further to fall.

That will make Trudeau look like…dare I say it……a Rhodes Scholar?

#183 Guy in Calgary on 03.17.18 at 11:01 am

A great many people refinance their loans upon renewal. They will need to pass the test. – Garth

————————————————————-

Yes I agree. A renewal and a refi are not the same thing though. A refi is a new mortgage, a renewal is renewing an existing mortgage. Semantics I know but it is an important difference.

#184 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.17.18 at 11:03 am

@#165 Trumpetting the End
“The beginning of the end…”
+++++

Well I for one am looking on the bright side of armaggeddon.
When the world explodes and we’re all spinning off into space as burnt cinders……..
I wont have to read your drivel ever again

#185 Howard on 03.17.18 at 11:19 am

DELETED

#186 Doug in London on 03.17.18 at 11:24 am

The loonie’s pooched you say? That’s bad news if you’re travelling to or buying goods made in the USA, but good news if you are exporting goods to the USA. Then again, Donald Trump may tempted to put an additional tariff on goods or services from Canada if he sees the lower dollar as an “unfair” advantage.

Now let’s look at Bitcoin. I remember in December someone here (Trader Vic?) disagreed with my idea that HNY would be a better investment. Well, let’s see, HNY is going sideways and about the same value as 3 months ago and Bitcoin is down about 60%, and HNY is paying a yield of 9.44%. Which do YOU think is a better investment? Speaking of Bitcoin, if it’s down 60% then its value is 0.4 of that back in December. Let’s do the math, 1/0.4 = 2.5. So why aren’t there 2.5 times as many investors piling money into Bitcoin as there were back in December? Something to think about as you sip your Guinness beer or Jameson Irish whisky on St. Patrick’s Day!

#187 Ronaldo on 03.17.18 at 11:33 am

Looks like it’s going to be a hot real estate market this spring in Nanaimo. House a couple houses down from ours put on the market a week ago just sold. Asking price $128,000 over assessment. So, my prediction turned out when I told my wife, all the houses on our street will soon be worth a million. She didn’t believe me. Crazy what’s happening in this city with the construction, both commercial and residential. Soon to be the next most unaffordable place to live for most. I guess that’s the boomers fault right SCM?

#188 Guy in Calgary on 03.17.18 at 11:47 am

Watching t.v and there was a commercial advertising Kelowna and the Okanagan. I thought they wanted us out!?

Couldn’t help but giggle at the irony.

Kinda sad.

#189 akashic record on 03.17.18 at 12:15 pm

“The spiritual process is essentially just this: to move from your reptilian part of your brain – which is always trying to fix boundaries.

See, a dog is going around peeing always all around the place – not because it has some urinary problem. He is fixing boundaries… He believes that’s his kingdom. Like you believe.

You are constantly fixing boundaries, whether it is with people, things or areas of the planet, you want to fix boundaries.

The largest expression of reptilian brain is a nation.
The smallest expression of reptilian brain is family.
Both are boundaries.” – Sadhguru.

#190 Bob in India on 03.17.18 at 12:18 pm

Over here in India some of the well educated locals have been asking me about what’s up with Justin and his exploits.

I don’t say much as there is not much to say. Also, not good to slam your own country or leaders when in the presence of foreigners.

However, T2 is clearly an empty suit.

#191 Stan Brooks on 03.17.18 at 12:29 pm

#174 MF on 03.17.18 at 10:17 am
141 Stan Brooks on 03.16.18 at 11

No I care. I care immensely. Read my posts from 2015. Myself, and many many others on here, saw the warning signs but were powerless.

The Economy is slowing. No businesses have any confidence in Trudeau. He is seen as a socialist with no experience and no cohesive plan. An international laughing stock.

Obviously This is why the cad is going down.

What I don’t care about is the impact on a low cad on expats, who cannot say one positive about our country.

MF

===================

I like Toronto Rapters.

#192 Stan Brooks on 03.17.18 at 12:31 pm

Excuse the spelling,

Toronto Raptors.

#193 Ogopogo on 03.17.18 at 12:44 pm

Meanwhile, our local RE propaganda outlet Castanet (it passes itself off as news) keeps pumping the lie that prices won’t revert to the mean. You need a strong stomach to live in a town where the only source of online news is a cesspool of realtor-driven sewage:

https://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-221323-1-.htm#221323

#194 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 03.17.18 at 12:54 pm

#186 Doug…you’ll get a lower loonie because Poloz will ratchet the dollar down to match Trudeau’s murder of the economy. Trudeau needs a fourth year of desperation to keep snowflakes on their knees for welfare.

#195 Russ on 03.17.18 at 12:57 pm

Red Carpet on 03.17.18 at 2:07 am

Runway-red tie boldly holds its own while T2 dips toe..

Telling, isn’t it?
——————————-

…and brown shoes to a dark suit? Tut tut.

#196 Russ on 03.17.18 at 12:59 pm

Dolce Vita on 03.17.18 at 12:00 am

Oddly, based on BC regional Comments here today (2017 BC Prov. Election results):

Kelowna Lake Country = Liberal
Kelowna Mission = Liberal
Kelowna West = Liberal

and environs:

Vernon-Monashee = Liberal
Penticton = Liberal
Shuswap = Liberal
Kamloops-South Thompson = Liberal

etc.

And they wonder why the BC NDP is messing with their Tourism based economy…
========================

But Vancouver, Victoria & Nanaimo got smote with the same tax.

These areas are not predominately Liberal.

NDP just like to show how truly clueless they can be.

#197 Ustabe on 03.17.18 at 1:00 pm

Hey, Guy in Calgary:

I’ve lived in BC for 30 years, have travelled Canada from coast to coast, have family in Calgary and I’ve never heard the kind of BS you maintain you get about being an Albertan.

Give it up…it’s not a good look.

#198 BS on 03.17.18 at 1:02 pm

How can rational people believe BC real estate can be tanked and everyone’s income is untouched? The Dippers have sure done a number on your head. – Garth

Yes people will lose jobs and businesses will fail. It will be ugly. That was baked in when the bubble was inflated. There is no avoiding it. The question is which is better – allow the bubble to continue to inflate or just pop it now? The longer it goes on the more people will get hurt. I can’t see how it helps to kick the can down the road and make the bubble even bigger or delay the inevitable. The party must end and the sooner the better.

As clearly and unequivocally documented here, the market was rolling over before BC lost its mind and voted in the NDP. This is just wealth envy at work. – Garth

#199 TurnerNation on 03.17.18 at 1:06 pm

High earners Get out of Ontariowe! Unless you wish to be on the hook for new chiclets for Smoking man.

Everything free for everyone. Free free free. Including a minimum income for some.
Who’s gonna pay?

– I guess I’m old enough to recall when poor people were underweight. Not today. Gimmie gimmie.
M42ON.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-ndp-universal-health-care-1.4581129

“Ontario NDP pledges to cover dental, drug costs in universal health care plan”

#200 MaxBerniersShorts on 03.17.18 at 1:10 pm

Surely Garth the BC NDP deserve some credit for trying to monetize the real estate insanity for the good of British Columbians? If Albertans are awash in oil money they can contribute some towards housing the locals.

Why do BCers hate Albertans? It’s ugly. – Garth

#201 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.17.18 at 1:26 pm

On an Albertan pipeline note.

Was leaving my place this am and an RCMP cruiser with 4 cops in it went whizzing past. No lights. No siren.
Hmmmm. What up?
Drove a few more blocks. Turned the corner and had to slow to a stop.
An elderly Chinese lady was jaywalking across the street mid block, head down, shuffling along at a snails pace, oblivious to the growing traffic jam in both lanes.
RCMP car #2 full o cops was stopped in the oncoming lane waiting for “Dances with Snails” to finish her shuffle.
On come the lights, out gets Ms policewoman to give a stern lecture to our intrepid jaywalker.
Who , only then, realized cars were waiting in both lanes.
Cop’s talking to her. No answer. “Dances with Snails” keeps shuffling like some unstoppable leviathan.

Kinder Morgan pipeline protest beckons.
Cops leave for greener pastures.
Jaywalker gets a pass……
I should be so lucky

#202 Russ on 03.17.18 at 1:37 pm

BS on 03.17.18 at 1:02 pm

How can rational people believe BC real estate can be tanked and everyone’s income is untouched? The Dippers have sure done a number on your head. – Garth

Yes people will lose jobs and businesses will fail. It will be ugly.
———————————-

As clearly and unequivocally documented here, the market was rolling over before BC lost its mind and voted in the NDP. This is just wealth envy at work. – Garth
=======================

Whoa there, Garth.

The sane people did not vote in the NDP. The Greens and the NDP voted themselves in, aided by the Royal’s representative.

Some of us were around the last time the Dippers tried to govern. What a mess.

Yes, quite true. The BC Liberals garnered the most votes and the other guys stole the government. – Garth

#203 Newcomer on 03.17.18 at 1:43 pm

#172 dharma bum on 03.17.18 at 9:35 am

“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.”

– Buddha

———-

That quote is generally attributed to Laozi (Lao Tsu), though it certainly does not come from the Tao Te Ching and I can’t find any indication that he wrote anything else that this could have come from.

There is no indication that it came from any of the Buddha’s discourses, and does not sound like something he is likely to have said. In general, he did not see life in those sorts of terms. My guess is that it was first said by a motivational speaker in California circa 1987, but it may be more recent.

#204 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.17.18 at 1:46 pm

Why do BCers hate Albertans? It’s ugly. – Garth

+++++++

An itch we have to scratch?

If you want even more ridiculous.

Try the Edmonton vs Calgary rivalry.

Now THATS a pig wallow.

#205 Howard on 03.17.18 at 2:00 pm

Wow. Just wow.

And yes, there’s audio evidence.

Kathleen Wynne warns students to vote or old white people will decide the election.

http://brianlilley.com/kathleen-wynne-warns-students-to-vote-or-old-white-people-will-decide-the-election/

#206 Old Man Too on 03.17.18 at 2:22 pm

#70 Temple. You sound like SCM.
How does taxing a second home in a resort area make housing affordable in Vancouver? Oh right, it doesn’t.

#207 When the Whip Comes Down on 03.17.18 at 2:22 pm

The BC Dippers will back pedal on this spec tax on second residences. Doesn’t anyone remember when Glen Clark was finance minister in the 90s and he put in that surtax on homes worth over $500K (yeah in the early 90s a half mill home you were considered wealthy). Well the people bitched and moaned, some saying we inherited this house from our parents and we are just average income earners yadayada. Well, they listened and the tax was removed. Same will happen in some way shape or form this time.

I also expect as soon as the BC libs firm up their party under new leadership there will be a snap election called. The libs will use this NDP budget and the angst it is causing as a means to get them out.

#208 Protea on 03.17.18 at 2:49 pm

Our only saviour is Donald Trump with Trudeau and Poloz driving down the CDN $$$ I hope Trump is watching and taking notes and does something punitive against this current government.

#209 Oncebittwiceshy on 03.17.18 at 2:50 pm

Garth: “As clearly and unequivocally documented here, the market was rolling over before BC lost its mind and voted in the NDP. This is just wealth envy at work.”– Garth
<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Except Garth, these people aren’t wealthy. I have never seen so many multiple home owners in my 60 years of living in Vancouver.

My guess is the Albertans are the same as the B.C. Specuvestor. They have all drank the Koolaid and are helocing their brains out trying to finance their futures.

As misguided as this tax is, it will drive the market into the ground and the true wealthy will just be collateral damage.

I’m currently in Phoenix and I can see the future fine from here.

#210 45north on 03.17.18 at 3:19 pm

Don: We definitely know that nobody did anything to stop this housing bubble.

we definitely know that Garth set up and ran this blog – the one you are reading. He has constantly warned against putting all your assets in housing. He has also warned against borrowing and putting your negative assets in housing.

#211 45north on 03.17.18 at 3:20 pm

jane24: A British comedian Tracey Ullman has a TV show where a constant sketch is her as Angela Merkel

yes my chancellorette

pretty funny

#212 45north on 03.17.18 at 3:21 pm

Stock Picker:
If foreign companies think that Trudeau will kill any expectation of development, which he says he will, then no one is going to spend a dime in this country, which is what’s happening now. Foreigners don’t give a crap what’s being lost in housing or debt. It’s not a question of if the Canadian dollar hits 60 cents, it’s when. I say this year.

that got my attention

#213 45north on 03.17.18 at 3:23 pm

Libel

first time I’ve seen that

Here’s a piece by the Canadian Bar Association on libel and slander:

https://www.cbabc.org/For-the-Public/Dial-A-Law/Scripts/Your-Rights/240

#214 AGuyInVancouver on 03.17.18 at 3:40 pm

Yes, quite true. The BC Liberals garnered the most votes and the other guys stole the government. – Garth
_ _ _
I expect better from a former parliamentarian. The governing Green+NDP alliance received 57.12% of the vote, a clear lead over the BC Liberals 40.36%. Even the NDP alone were just fractionally behind the Christy Clark Clowns at 40.28%. And that’s how we roll in the Westminster model of democracy.

Voters don’t cast ballots for coalitions. That was a backroom deal. – Garth

#215 Gravy Train on 03.17.18 at 3:41 pm

#208 Protea on 03.17.18 at 2:49 pm
“Our only saviour is Donald Trump with Trudeau and Poloz driving down [CAD]. I hope Trump is watching and taking notes and does something punitive against this current government.”

You, Protea, win the title of Greatest Fool on this blog. Sorry, Smokey, but I’ve stripped you of the title! :)

#216 Guy in Calgary on 03.17.18 at 4:03 pm

#119 Duke on 03.16.18 at 10:28 pm
#59 Guy in Calgary on 03.16.18 at 7:51 pm
#17 Smartalox on 03.16.18 at 6:28 pm

So far as I know from working in the industry the bank will not ask for an appraisal at renewal. There would have to be a VERY compelling reason. If the mortgage has been paid as agreed it’s sign here have a nice day.

===============

I can’t believe that you are in the industry and still don’t know banks can request appraisal during renewal. Your past history of not missing any payment doesn’t matter at all. What matters is how much equity is with the property.
—————————————————————–

Of course they can but I have never seen it unless it’s a refi… only been here 3ish years. Never when house vales go down sharply, that could be why. Just seems like fear mongering.

#217 A Yank in BC on 03.17.18 at 4:17 pm

#201 crowdedelevatorfartz

“An elderly Chinese lady was jaywalking across the street..”

I’m curious.. how did you know she was Chinese? Did you go over an interview her or something?

#218 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.17.18 at 5:05 pm

@#217 A yank in BC
” How did I know she was chinese?”
++++++

She’s a tenant in my building and she cant speak a world of english. Babbles a mean streak in Chinese though. I have spoken to her daughter. Nice girl.

You should recalibrate your “racism radar”.
Its broken.
Someone must have “yanked” on it.

P.S.
You do realize that Yank is a derogatory term for a citizen of the United States.
Perhaps you should find a less derogatory term like “stinkyfartz”, Or “BlitheringIdiot”?

#219 DON on 03.17.18 at 5:48 pm

@ #210 45 North

Of course I agree with you…I didn’t think I had to mention what this blog and our host has done to warn people. I was referring to politicians in power.

People picking any political party for life no matter the corruption ensure the bar is constantly set low. The I always vote blue because my daddy and his daddy always voted blue is pure laziness. I vote for the best interests of the Province I live in.

We need to outlaw political parties and make everyone run as independents. They need to answer to their constituents and not the party whip.

Its seems that only a minority government can hold politicians accountable – makes them have to work together. Real democracy in action.

Unfortunately a parliament of independents would get absolutely nothing done. – Garth

#220 DON on 03.17.18 at 5:58 pm

Check out Martin Brown’s article in the Georgia Straight on the Trans mountain pipeline. Isn’t it unconstitutional for Alberta to threaten to shut off the oil to BC? And why didn’t the Albertans threaten the other provinces over their opposition to the eastern pipeline???

Remember not all politicians are ethical like Garth. Complimentary monthly suck up.

#221 DON on 03.17.18 at 6:08 pm

@ Garth

Re: independents not getting things done.

I know…but at least massive corruption would be held in check to some degree.

Happy Belated Birthday.

#222 backwardsevolution on 03.17.18 at 7:26 pm

Socialism for the Rich:

That’s when Comrade Harper, assisted by Comrade Flaherty and Comrades Carney and Poloz, along with provincial governments, all beholden to big money interests, engineer and manufacture a mother of a housing bubble.

Interest rates are held down until the bubble gets nice and big. Amortization periods are lengthened from 25 to 30, 35 and then 40 years. No down payment, no doc, cash back. Banks bailed out after the 2008 crisis. More are sucked into the mess when interest rates continue their slow decline while house prices increase.

Immigration numbers increased. Money laundering, shell corporations, assignment flipping, “no income” declarations.

The comrades threw a big party, didn’t they?

Now that it’s time to clean up the mess, the cleaners are now labelled “comrades” or “socialists” by the vested interests. Socialism for the rich was apparently just fine, but socialism for the poor gets taken to the wood shed.

Go figure.

70% of Canadians own real estate. Are they the rich you refer to? – Garth

#223 Popeye the sailor man on 03.17.18 at 9:11 pm

#76 Long Branch Apprentice on 03.16.18 at 8:34 pm
#25 Popeye the sailor man

Great question! And if the loonie really slides, does that make RE a bargain for foreign investors?

You a power engineer? I’m one test and 3 months of steam time away from being 3rd class.

___________________________

I’m a 2nd class Marine Engineer; but I do have a Power Engineering Cert also.

#224 Nonplused on 03.17.18 at 9:18 pm

#204 crowdedelevatorfartz

The Calgary – Edmonton rivalry is all in fun, as is the Calgary – Saskatchewan and Edmonton – Saskatchewan rivalries. It makes for fun football, probably the most fun football in the CFL. Nobody in Calgary actually hates people from Edmonton or Regina because half their relatives live in Edmonton and their wife is from Regina, and wears green at the games.

It’s a bit different in Vancouver, where they tear the place apart if they lose an important fake sporting event. You don’t want to marry a girl from there.

#225 backwardsevolution on 03.17.18 at 10:04 pm

Garth – “70% of Canadians own real estate. Are they the rich you refer to?”

My point was that the government engineered and manufactured the housing bubbles, but I didn’t hear anybody calling that “socialism”. The policies they enacted directly benefited the wealthy. Most of the rest of society hold paper gains, but that’s about it.

And the rich I’m referring to are the people who buy off the politicians: the developers/speculators/realtors. These are the people who really made out like bandits.

So what’s with the sudden “comrade” business when someone is trying to correct the damage done? Why weren’t we hearing “comrade” when we had socialism for the rich on the way up?

So much angst, so little fact. – Garth

#226 Bitcoinnaire on 03.17.18 at 10:47 pm

Uh oh, Bitcoin has now “fallen” to the level it was in November!

How will they ever recover…?

Sure, if you bought in at 20K, you’re in for a bad time. The trick is to buy when the asset class is out of favour in the public perception, with no underlying fundamental flaws, which is RIGHT NOW. $6K is a very good entry point, because one can quite carefully compute the cost of Bitcoin related to the energy consumption needed to mine a single coin, and that value currently, with the current hash rates, is approx. $6K per BTC.

Buy the dip. We’ll see $100K in the next 1-2 years.

I’ve seen REAL Bitcoin crashes, where large jurisdictions seized millions of coins, the single largest exchange and liquidity provider going insolvent and people being hauled away in handcuff. Those were wild days.

A crash in Bitcoin land is now almost as boring as the stock markets. YAWN.

t. In since 2011.

#227 backwardsevolution on 03.18.18 at 12:50 am

Garth – “So much angst, so little fact. ”

Just read back through your posts. YOU provided the facts all the way along: the moves of the Central Bank (Carney and Poloz), the policies of Flaherty, provincial programs, federal immigration policies, no docs, cash back, no down payment, amortization periods increasing from 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 years, help to first-time buyers, etc.

It’s all there in your blog posts, and almost all of these policies went one way – to prop up the bubbles.

When a government is trying to stop the speculation and put a stop to the corruption, all of a sudden they’re called “comrades”. It’s the new “racist” word, used to shut someone up, to denigrate someone.

Thank you.

#228 aa3 on 03.18.18 at 2:34 am

Well if you like democracy you must be a big fan of the governments in Canada. Because all of them won the elections fair and square.

#229 paidforinremimbi on 03.18.18 at 11:41 am

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