Some notes to end the week. And thank God it’s ending…
He gets an A for honesty:
Kyle Kerr is putting the best face on it. You’d expect that. But for a realtor in a crapstorm, he’s also managing to hang on to his creds.
The boss of the Victoria Real Estate Board has a lot to moan about. Rising mortgage rates. The stress test, of course. Now a withering 20% go-home tax being imposed on foreign buyers. Plus that insane ‘speculation tax’ equal to 2% annually of a property’s value slapped on any non-local. Ouch. Upper Canadians and other interlopers have long enjoyed keeping a pied a terre in that crusty little city. Not for much longer, though.
Anyway, as published here yesterday, February sales sank more than 19%. Deals for single-family homes collapsed over 24%. Prices were up, based on a few fat sales, but Kyle can sure see the writing on the wall. Here’s what he had to say…
“We certainly anticipated that we would see some lower numbers this year compared to last. Right now prospective home buyers are met with many hurdles as they start shopping for their new home. They’re in a market that’s experienced long-term low inventory, which means more price pressure and competition on homes. Buyers are navigating increasing interest rates and the new mortgage stress test. These factors all combine to constrain our market. Like any changes to consumer experience, there is a period of response before consumers adapt to the new rules. We saw an increase in buyers in November and December who bought early to avoid the mortgage stress test, and this likely means less buyers in the current market. However, with continued historical low inventory levels, demand is still outpacing supply.”
But as supply increases, Victoria will be in trouble. A small market in the epicentre of the lefty tax-tax bullseye. The ferries will be busy.
How was this not obvious?
And here’s Colin Basran, trying to understand what possible benefit there may be to Kelowna – where he used to be a realtor and is now the mayor – of fleecing people who own properties just because they live in Alberta. Or Ontario. Or Washington state.
The NDP speculation tax, he says, “could have some very unintended consequences, and we need to take some time and make sure we get this right.” Of course, Premier Comrade Horgan doesn’t actually care, and the tax is already law. On a $700,000 house it will amount to $14,000 next year, and every year thereafter, giving out-of-towners a powerful reason to stop spending their money in Kelowna.
In essence, says his honour, this is just like the empty houses tax in Vancouver where people who use their properties consistently, but not full-time, are forced to hand over gobs of cash for no discernible reason. Local busineses worry this is a disaster in the making, Basran warns, “which is potentially going to stop people from investing in our economy.”
Good thinking, dippers. Just when Canadian trade is about to be Trumpcated, the cost of money is rising, credit’s being restricted and economic growth more than halved, you decide to cut off outside investment.
What were BC voters thinking? Maybe no actual thinking was involved.
The pendulum never stops in the middle.
Peter Norman, an economist dude I have known for years, now works for company which gathers and mushes housing data. His office is in Toronto, where on Monday the local board will announce a precipitous drop in sales in the wake of the stress test, the foreign buyer tax, higher rates and out-of-control household debt.
“The hand-wringing is much ado about nothing,” he says, bravely. Plus the turmoil is temporary. Norman joins other scared industry peoplekind in arguing the February massacre means we’re ‘just getting back to a normal market.’ That’s probably as naïve as those potential buyers who think house prices can collapse without an impact on their jobs, income or financial stability. When real estate accounts for about a quarter of the entire economy (housing and mortgage commissions alone equal 3%), everybody bleeds.
Speaking of blood, sales of detached houses in Vancouver plunged 39% below the ten-year average last month.
Booms almost always end in busts. Bubbles burst, they don’t deflate. House-horny, I’ll-pay-anything, FOMO turns into terror. Pendulums which swung wildly to one side never stop in the middle. Pete knows this. But he also knows who butters his bread.
Rest up. Another big week coming.
212 comments ↓
First
Would you short Canadian banks Garth?
Just curious Garth, why are you against taxing speculators?
Hey dogs I’ve rebranded myself as a rapper!
Forget this Bay St rat race nonsense. I’m going international. My new name is Marky Mark:
Housing peaked in 2013
Deflation is here and you know it’s a dream
Put all your money into TMX just for fun
It will come good as one day it will run
First?! Or…….maybe not??
So what if Victoria has the foreign buyers tax now?
In 2015, you frequently cited Victoria’s 0.68% foreign buyers as a reason why there were none in Vancouver. Of course, the percentage of foreign buyers in Victoria went from 0.68% to just under 5% and prices went up 30-40% in less than 2 years. But of courses, there is no correlation.
And if the foreign buyers’s did not have an impact, then no need to worry about the Foreign Buyers Tax right?
Victoria is not like Vancouver were everyone has FOMO because of the foreign buyers meme…so there will be no psychological impact on buyers from the new tax.
Also thoughts on:
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I noticed that Stan Brooks considers his postings as “charity.” How about less charity Stan and a lot more mercy?
“…fleecing people who own properties just because they live in Alberta. Or Ontario. Or Washington state.”
Property ownership is not a right, as you like to say. As oft repeated here, for those that cannot afford to own or rent in their own city, they should just ‘shut up and move on.’
Well, same for those with secondary homes. If you cannot afford the new taxes, just ‘shut up and move on.’
Besides, there are already restrictions placed in many provinces on out of towners. Try paying local McGill tuition fees if you are out of province – oh wait, its cheaper for locals. Try buying waterfront in PEI – oh wait, you cannot, unless Cabinet approves.
BC’ers are tired of being the playground for foreign and domestic capital sloshing around in real estate. Time to take back the province for those that actually live and work and contribute something here – contribute more than paying property taxes and dinning out a few days of the year.
Garth If I’m not mistaken in one of your blog posts a few months ago you mentioned a speculation tax would take care of the Vancouver Market in a hurry. It looks like the government must have been reading your blog. From what I can see here in BC there are not a lot of Tears being shed by most of us due to the leadership and bit of tough love being demonstrated by “comrades” Horgan and James.
Over we go !!!
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/03/01/toronto-housing-market-february-2018_a_23374797/
GONE
Premier Comrade Horgan
Canadian trade is about to be Trumpcated
Norman joins other scared industry peoplekind
—————————————————————-
Garth has a way with words that consistently makes me chuckle.
So much denial in the post-2013 peak era, its unbelievable. But bankers, the people who actually have money, know better. They’ve been tightening credit in response to a deterioration in the quality of collateral. They’ve been rationally responding to the stagnating prices. Meanwhile people dependent on credit expansion, such as the “landlord families” and those in the RE sell side have been concocting fairy tales of increasing prices. Trying to desperately convince us that sales mix changes have not been prominent behind the alleged changes in average selling price.
Unfortunately for the RE sell siders, and the landlord families, the stagnation can no longer be covered up. Volume is collapsing as Realtors are now properly counselling delusional homeowners who want to sell that they won’t be able to get anywhere near even what’s printed on their ‘assessment’ for their property. Amateur RE aficionados recoil in horror as their overly simplistic ‘valuation’ of their own properties by scaling by the change in the average selling price proves, in practice, to be completely inapplicable and of complete delusion. “Foreign money” is also proving to be a lie — a slick, but rather disgusting ‘marketing’ meme by the RE industry to justify what is in fact a clearly out of control and unsustainable bubble in mortgage backed credit.
The next few months/years could prove to be very interesting as we are now entering the 5th year of Canadian RE stagnation (Canada’s RE market is highly correlated coast to coast due to the nature of national lenders and the CMHC subprime mortgage insurance program). 5 years post-peak in the 1990s saw the TSE nearly double in the subsequent 3 years, and more than double in the next 5 years. But overly-indebted and unbalanced homeowners won’t be participating. Sucks to be them.
BC is an extremely nice place to live, and we have been undercharging for that right. The lower mainland, Vancouver and the southern interior are the nicest places in Canada, and the world to live and giving away that right is morally wrong. I think the NDP has it right, charge what the market will bare. If it’s too high, adjust down, if its too low, adjust up. I’ve been in sales a long time, and the formula never changes.
No housing issues in Kelowna,
No homeless problems,
No crime problems,
Mr. Mayor doing a fine job…
I see nothing !!!
The pendulum “only stops in the middle” when there is no inertia remaining.
—————————
Out of control speculation, tax evasion and foreign money laundering has gotten out of control in western Canada. Not that it matters to me anymore, but I favor the New Zealand approach to your RE problem.
#6 Michael Brnadic on 03.02.18 at 5:19 pm
Also thoughts on:
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If you’re asking on the comments sections of a blog about a 2x levered ETF, it probably means you shouldn’t be trading it.
wow, another big week is coming.
My job is in Toronto, but I live in London, I work from home three days a week. But have to be on site for two days. One way commute is 2.5 hours. I like my job, decent pay and generous defined benefit which is hard to come by in a small town such as London. Should I continue doing the commuting or buy a second home in Toronto?
Meanwhile in Richmond, the highly leveraged take it out on the lefty librarians. This won’t end well indeed.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/canada/b-c-library-worker-kicked-in-the-stomach-at-housing-meeting-1.3825836
As expected the latest numbers put out by the REBGV are looking “dismal” despite those perky-looking (and highly suspect) “benchmark pricing” models they use.
In short, the sales we are now seeing were set in motion months ago and a lot has changed since then as we all know. So, for anyone hoping for a Spring “re-bound”, I am quite sure there will be a lot of disappointment coming their way.
Please feel free to join my FB site called, “Metro Vancouver Housing Collapse” if you want to know much more about what is REALLY going on out there.
We now have 358 members (and counting!) since Nov. 11, 2017.
It’s all too bad really.
I do not understand the logic of taxing Canadian out of towners (Albertans, Ontarians etc) that own property in a TOURIST town. It’s not like it is the only place in Canada people go to play… (Muskoka for example).
Places like Kelowna need tourism to survive. This BC tax will hurt BC. I guess this is what they wanted though? The whole situation is very confusing.
Grab the popcorn.
All I ever read on this blog that it was the locals not foreigners driving up the prices. So why bring in a tax hit if it was no problem with foreigners? Something doesn’t sound right.
Tax on tax on tax. Cumulative fatigue. Market croaks. – Garth
It’s not just us. Americans didn’t learn. Or have our Chinese dudes gone south?
– Silicon Valley home shatters new record with enormous price tag
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/03/02/sunnyvale-home-shatters-new-record-with-enormous-price-tag/
Real Estate Set To CRASH Globally – U.S., Canadian, UK, and Australian Housing Market Bursting
http://investmentwatchblog.com/real-estate-set-to-crash-globally-u-s-canadian-uk-and-australian-housing-market-bursting/
Is Colin Basran worse than Christy Clark and will he go out like Christy once the younger generation realize what he is up to – in the back pocket of developers.
Kelonwa is essentially Vision Vancouver 2.0 under Basran.
Not a surprise he is speaking out as he needs to deliver to the boomers of Kelowna who love increasing house prices and the Liberals who support it…and Horgan is making that tough…and if he can’t deliver higher housing prices in Kelowna and concrete towers, what can he delivery as a mayor? Nothing.
Any guesses as to why CHBC news gave him the pink slip prior to becoming a realtor?
Any guesses as to how much a strong hold the RE crowd has in Kelowna there?
How do you think realtors become mayors?
Don’t let those prices fall Colin.
Hi Garth and gang, avid reader and first comment, all we hear is Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and kelowna real estate. I live in the interior of bc, tobiano golf course and would like to hear from other readers about what real estate is doing in other interior towns in Bc, tobiano golf course housing is doing great.
Thanks
Lulu
#8 Why Care?
Be careful for what you wish for, that doggie is going to bite you right in the ____. but you do not care. Ask all that live in S.E. and N.E. B.C. if they care!
How about taxing my boat? It’s empty almost all year. Just sits in the water at the marina. You could put a couple of hipsters in the bilge and no one would even notice.
And I have a couple of pretty good tarps that could be used as shelters. Are those going to be taxed too?
Many counties in Florida tax non-local buyers at DOUBLE the property tax rate of local residents. Florida is doing just fine and no one is accusing them of being commies.
So quit spreading fear and non-sense that no one but the most simplistic minds accept as gospel.
ALSO… none of these tax measures would have been necessary if the government made the choice years ago to stop the rampant and illegal flow of money in BC real estate market.
Incorrect. Owners of Florida properties who are not residents are ineligible for a property tax rebate. They are not taxed double. Did you get that from an NDP collective web site? – Garth
Thanks for responding Mr. Turner. How much can the human body be taxed? Taxed to death I guess!
#28 Boater Bob
Bob, it’s a boat, or as my boating friends call it, “a hole in the water that you pour money into”.
I don’t think there is anyone out there cruel enough to tax you on it. Although really, would you even notice? I mean, if you are paying for it to be docked most of the year anyway……..
Justin Trudeau would lose if an election were held tomorrow, India trip a symptom of shift in mood: Ipsos poll
https://globalnews.ca/news/4058984/justin-trudeau-india-trip-ipsos-poll/
New IPSOS poll.
Pink Snow falling in Surrey
Let’s look at a couple of more affordable options in Greater Vancouver.
These guys got carried away in the euphoria of Spring Fling 2016 and stumped up 1.16 in April of that year.
It was only assessed at 970k at the time so they went overboard roughly 200k and are now in big trouble.
The latest assessment crept up a little but that segment of the market has its hazard lights on in the breakdown lane after running out of gas…
M43BC
17408 2A AVE SURREY V3Z 6R9
Aug 28:$1,199,000
Mar 1: $999,900
Change: – 199100.00 -17%
https://www.zolo.ca/surrey-real-estate/17408-2a-avenue
https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/RDAwMDBHQ05DNg==
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Feel free to make a donation.
Flop For Fox Fund…
http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/
Pink Snow falling in Richmond.
Let’s leave the people alone in their mansions in Richmond for a while and take a look at a segment that has been underrepresented in my Pink Project.
These guys paid 993k in March 2016 for this townhouse that is the best part of 30 years old in a derided part of town.
These guys look motivated to beat the drop and try and get out safe,they have their work cut out but they appear to have found some smelling salts.
Get out this spring before your money turns to Ash…
M43BC
27 8051 Ash Street, Richmond
Feb 19:$999,000
Mar 1: $969,900
Change: – 29100.00 -3%
https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/8051-ash-street/27
https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1V1RWNQ==
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Feel free to make a donation.
Flop For Fox Fund…
http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/
Hey Colin:
Can you fix this?
Ella not happy.
Is the Ella project loosing money and maybe the real story live of what is going on that the media won’t report on? Probably making a couple hundred million, but not the couple of hundred BILLION thought before foreign money started drying up last year.
Started at $800+ per square foot.
Put the final developer sale up last month advertising to buy before prices fell any further.
Guess that didn’t work.
Now advertised at under $600 dollars per square foot.
http://liveatella.com/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIvfyJieLO2QIViIjICh1skAEDEAAYASAAEgL2ffD_BwE
That is a $190k haircut on the pre-sale….do you realize how bad this looks in the public?
Colin, we want Vancouver prices and beyond here in Kelowna. We want $2,000 per square foot.
If you don’t fix this then we might have to replace you with Bob Rennie as the new Mayor.
If I were a realtor I would be worried about much more serious issues.
1. Will the collective public realize we are all worthless parasites and send us straight to the showers? (unlikely)
2. Will I spend the next 10 years of my life in prison for committing irrefutable undeniable acts of fraud.
I can tell you exactly what I was thinking when I voted NDP in BC..
The current government is a corrupt puppet regime receiving orders from a criminal banking cartel. Together they make a pretty effective terrorist organization.
I will be spending the weekend applying for my UK passport. I have had enough Canada for one lifetime. The housing market isn’t correcting nearly fast enough.
#Howard
In the US, most polls predicted a Hillary win. Opinion Polls are not necessarily accurate.
#14
“The lower mainland, Vancouver and the southern interior are the nicest places in Canada, and the world to live”
Keep sipping the kool-aid.
There’s nothing like retiring to a moldy basement suite at Knight and 49th to help you recuperate from your hard day at work. Work that pays you less on average than in Thunder Bay or Timmons.
Vancouver combines terrible weather with insane living costs, high taxes, and low salaries.
Sure, it’s a nice city in terms of the terrain. The people are generally miserable and real-estate obsessed. The architecture is horrible, and good luck finding a job that pays $100k with any stability. (Witness the instability faced by game industry workers in Vancouver).
You could sign up for a million dollar condo, or you could go off to any one of a number of cities that have better affordability, better weather, etc etc. I’d rather be in a good part of Santiago, St Petersburg, Singapore, Medellin (etc) for reasonable cost than work till 75 to pay off a badly built Vancouver Special.
#7 Chico on 03.02.18 at 5:23 pm
I noticed that Stan Brooks considers his postings as “charity.” How about less charity Stan and a lot more mercy?
——————————
“Blessed are the merciful, for they shall obtain mercy” (Matt. 5:7).
An old man was walking the beach early one morning, bending down to pick up starfish and throwing them out into the ocean. A teenager came by and asked, “Old man, what are you doing?”
“These starfish will die of dehydration once the sun comes up high,” he said. “I’m throwing them back into the ocean so they will live.”
“Ha!” the young man spat sarcastically. “The beach goes on for miles, and there are millions of starfish. What does it matter what you do?”
The old man looked at the starfish in his hand and then flipped it to safety in the waves. “It matters to this one,” he said
Folks from outside of BC and Alberta might not have a complete understanding of the relationship between Albertans who vacation in the BC interior and those that live there. It’s never been a warm relationship due to fundamental differences in outlook and finances. Tales of dirty looks, tailgating and harrassment of anyone with Alberta plates, and general resentment are pretty common. They call it Alberta’s playground for a reason, but not everyone is happy about that fact, and it doesn’t go unnoticed. So the 2% tax must really feel like a knife in the back when one weighs the economic contribution. There is no denying the interior is blessed with beautiful geography, but seriously there are other places. For those toughing out the oil and gas slump who have been considering liquidation of recreational assets it may just be the extra push they needed. Albertans may just vote with their feet. There will be some who might say ‘good riddance’, but we’ll see how that works out for them in the long run.
#7 Chico on 03.02.18 at 5:23 pm
You are welcome.
Garth,
I would assume if a prick of a poster would try to spam in hateful messages via the name parameter of the comment’s form, your super spam sniffer thingy would bounce them.
Can’t the same be applied to the recent rodent infestation? Weasels are rodents correct?
Thinking outside the box
-RD
Please fasten your seat belts and brace for impact.
I know I am not very popular with the real estate crowd lately, so, I would like to apologize…to absolutely nobody!!!
We are taking the dirty money out of BC where most of it is hiding in real estate and if you want to buy a house in BC….well, thanks for your equity donation. Gone like SCM.
Not everyone is suffering. I have a couple buddies who are divorce lawyers and business is ramping up big time. They are fielding triple the volume of potential female clients who want advice about leaving and they can’t figure out what is going on?
This is going to be an avalanche.
Toronto’s dip is temporary. It has already stabilized. Now watch as all of the demand in this market pushes prices back upwards. We are a global city now and prices reflect that.
Up another few percent in Feb on Detached. Buy while you can with your Mainland lottery winnings.
http://www.vireb.com/index.php?page=20
#34 Flop
If a developer builds a new property on that road would it be fair to call it an Ash hole?
Sorry couldn’t resist. Been at PJ O’Brien’s for the last three hours imitating Smoking Man.
And my mailbox was empty, SimplyPut. No leadership vote for me.
#6 Michael Brnadic on 03.02.18 at 5:19 pm
Also thoughts on:
BETAPRO
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**********
If you mean HFD, put the Suicide Prevention Hotline on your speed-dial.
Happy Friday, blog dogs and dog lovers in general – this is special
https://torontolife.com/culture/books/pete-thorne-old-faithful-adorable-elderly-dog-photography/
“What were BC voters thinking? Maybe no thinking was actually involved.”
I think some of us just wanted to vote in the commies just to watch them burn down the corrupt mess of a housing market that we currently have out here. And they’re certainly delivering on that it seems!
#18 Don – The answer is obvious, as one can see your a critical thinker, and what happens in the extra two days?
#14 Dog in The Fight
BC is an extremely nice place to live. The lower mainland, Vancouver and the southern interior are the nicest places in Canada
——————————————————————–
If you want to know why houses in Calgary are relatively lower priced, despite higher incomes, come for a visit. Don’t forget to bring winter boots, a parka, a snow shovel and chains for your 4 wheel drive. Only three more months until spring. Calgarians like to buy property in BC because they dream of escaping. BC is Canada’s version of California.
California Dreamin’ – The Mamas & The Papas
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-aK6JnyFmk
does anyone know what % of BC households/properties are in this out-of-province owner status?
@Don #18:
Why buy a place in downtown Toronto when you can rent some amateur landlord’s shoebox in the sky condo for a LOT less?
Find a place near some mode of transportation where you don’t have to drive in from London, and save the wear-and-tear on your vehicle by taking transit in the city, or walking or biking.
Long ago, I worked for what was then Ontario Hydro, with a bunch of contractors. A colleague lived near Owen Sound, and worked from home most of the time, but rented an apartment in the city, where he could walk to the office when he had to be in town.
Because he was a contractor, and self-incorporated, he wrote the cost of his rental and his travel off against his receipts, since he was more than 100km from home. He would not have been able to do this if he had owned the property instead.
Rental income blood bath in Kelowna.
2000 strictly rental units coming on board way below private market value.
Here is the current problem:
The new trend (and more are on the way):
In Kelowna: $1,200 – $1,500 per month Very affordable .gov backed rentals that allow pets with full amenities and downtown location. No owner had to sell get out type stuff. Possibly no rental increases with competitive pricing.
https://www.kijiji.ca/v-1-bedroom-apartments-condos/penticton/new-1br-mission-flats-suites-a-c-pet-friendly/1330521527?enableSearchNavigationFlag=true
The old trend:
Buy pre-sale flip it for 100K if can’t flip put on rental market until flip can be completed.
In Kelowna, $1,900-$2,200 per month rent by the speculator who is secretly trying to flip property on you. So, expect to move after a year.
Game now changing with these .gov backed rental places.
Old squeeze the renter for 55% of their income and then kick them out changing.
So, what is happening now:
Nice houses in the hills (like a 10 min drive out) have renters vacating and flocking to the downtown affordable rentals where they can ride bike to everything. No brain..er.
Here come the rental price cuts as being seen now in Wilden, Dilworth…anywhere outside of biking distance.
So, higher rates, rental price cuts…just keeps getting better.
Now these heavily financed SFD properties by generation X in Kelowna on the premise of renting out the basement suite for $500 more per month than what they can now get, if they can even find a tenant. I guess the bank and their appraisals never mentioned market dynamics and no guarantees….but don’t worry…they still want their money in full….it is on you to find that extra $500 per month now…third job maybe?
Hitting fast.
On a $700,000 house it will amount to $14,000 next year, and every year thereafter, giving out-of-towners a powerful reason to stop spending their money in Kelowna.
No … this tax is on out-of provincers. But how long until it is out-of towners?
Hey Garth!
Do you have to pay OT for Ryan and Doug when they work a Saturday?
If not how do get around that?
#2 AGuyInVancouver
We already tax speculators. It’s called the capital gains tax and we will be looking into your account to make sure you have been fully disclosing your information.
We also already tax landlords, whether they are incorporated or not, if they make a profit.
We see the efforts in BC to shift the tax flow from the CRA to the province of BC and as such are going to cut off their transfer payments. They don’t need the money anymore.
#13 Mark on 03.02.18 at 5:35 pm
So much denial in the post-2013 peak era, its unbelievable. But bankers, the people who actually have money, know better. They’ve been tightening credit in response to a deterioration in the quality of collateral. ………
5 years post-peak in the 1990s saw the TSE nearly double in the subsequent 3 years, and more than double in the next 5 years. But overly-indebted and unbalanced homeowners won’t be participating. Sucks to be them.
********
3.4 million shares of Enbridge traded hands today, a utility company that has spent more than it earns for 6 years running. Do you really, “Honestly” think that the credit these genius bankers provide is as bottomless as a box of Kirkland kitchen bags ? Cuz they never run out.
Holy Moly!
A Victoria update without VREU chirping in?????
Did she finally buy a place?
#38 Jim #52 Calgary Dude
I was born and lived in Edmonton for 16 years followed by 12 in Calgary. I have lived in BC for 21 years mostly on the Island, and routinely travel accross Alberta for work. It is always really nuce when I walk out of the Vancouver or Victoria airports. Especially now.
#40 RentYVR on 03.02.18 at 6:41 pm
I think some of us just wanted to vote in the commies just to watch them burn down the corrupt mess of a housing market that we currently have out here.
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In an experiment with monkeys, researchers found that monkeys would rather have nothing than have something and be treated unequally. When the researcher hands them a food reward for performing a task, they throw it back at the researcher if it is less than other monkeys got. Funny video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dMoK48QGL8
“giving out-of-towners a powerful reason to stop spending their money in Kelowna”
OMG, what is going to happen to poor Kelowna’s economy?!! It will probably go into recession if people stopped selling houses to each other.
I wonder how the economies of whole countries like Romania or Bosnia are surviving without Canadians to buy houses there…
In Kelowna:
Spot the common theme (25% flips in this building):
$1,900 per month until I can flip this for 100K profit:
https://classifieds.castanet.net/details/available_now_-_siena_at_sarsons/3363220/
$1,900 per month until I can flip this for 100K profit:
https://classifieds.castanet.net/details/brand_new_siena_at_sarsons/3378975/
$1,900 per month until I can flip this for 100K profit:
https://classifieds.castanet.net/details/available_now_-_siena_at_sarsons/3363220/
Discount $1,600 per month until I can flip this for 100k profit (from Alberta, we get the discount and urgency)
https://classifieds.castanet.net/details/brand_new_lakeshore_condo-march_1st/3384659/
#37 Chris on 03.02.18 at 6:25 pm
#Howard
In the US, most polls predicted a Hillary win. Opinion Polls are not necessarily accurate.
————————————
The US polls were mostly correct. Hillary won the popular vote by a considerable margin. She lost the election through a 1-in-a-100 chance distribution of votes in several key states that threw the electoral vote victory to Trump.
#45 Reality
Good post…what other businesses do you think will be in high demand soon?
Bankruptcy lawyers, moving companies, rentals, storage units, estate sale organisers, auction houses, therapists, dating sites, debt collectors, etc…
Please add everyone..the opportunities abound.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V846Uc-cSYU
Trudeau keeps on embarrASSing himself
On steel issue watch the first minute, Hey stupid fits.
Hand over 55% of gross income…then move out so I can collect my flip money.
In Kelowna:
Spot the common theme (25% flips in this building):
https://classifieds.castanet.net/details/available_now_-_siena_at_sarsons/3363220/
All from same building (hurry before building completes so I don’t have to register property in my name and just sell you the paper contract):
$1,900 per month until I can flip this for 100K profit:
$1,900 per month until I can flip this for 100K profit:
$1,900 per month until I can flip this for 100K profit:
Discount $1,600 per month until I can flip this for 95k profit (from Alberta, we get the discount and urgency)
#13 Mark on 03.02.18 at 5:35 pm
So much denial in the post-2013 peak era, its unbelievable.
//////////
Mark as I like to say to one of my friends.
” You are the dumbest smart guy I know”
This is you.
Re: #1 Michael Brnadic on 03.02.18 at 5:10 pm
I’d short them hand over fist. Credit is freezing up and to top it off I see teardowns and rebuilds presently up for sale near where I live.
Anyone see Calgary prices lately?
Look at this SFD backing onto green space in Airdrie. 399k.
Are you kidding me?
Outstanding prices.
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19098563/943-WOODSIDE-LN-NW-Woodside-Airdrie-Alberta-T4B2K3-Woodside
Re: #53 Reximus on 03.02.18 at 6:51 pm
No, but my guess is it would be close to zero percent. From people I know no one living in Ontario owns property in British Columbia and if they did they would have sold ages ago. No one in any other province can afford to buy in B.C.
“What were BC voters thinking?”
They’d had enough of the corrupt, bloated, self serving liars that the BC Liberals had become.
Scandal after scandal that even the compliant media couldnt ignore.
The Libs were tossed out by a hairs breadth.
And if that means 4 years of Dipper doodoo.
Its the price we pay for living in a “democracy”.
So be it.
Reminds me of the Federal election and the punting of Harper.
Trudeau wasnt so much elected as Harper was UNelected.
same result.
Socialist idiots with the fiscal acumen of a monkey playing with its privates……
Next election.
Gone.
Reset the gameboard.
Start over.
#54 Smartalox on 03.02.18 at 6:51 pm
Why buy a place in downtown Toronto when you can rent some amateur landlord’s shoebox in the sky condo for a LOT less?
————————-
We’re renting a condo downtown, owner is losing ~ $1200 a month :/
Watched a pretty good documentary today…
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
It’s about the only bank to get indicted from the GFC lol
From Garth’s capitulation post, « So the direction of real estate overall is down. Obviously. All that kneejerk, tax-crazed politicians like those in BC and Ontario will do is acerbate the decline. However in pockets where the moisters like to gather to drink Chai, eat kale and look at their phones, the bets are off. They can’t help it. Terminal house lust. They’re doomed. »
Garth has perfectly described the west end of Ottawa from Westboro to Britannia. Single family homes there are selling like hot cakes. Supply is tight and even tear downs are selling for hefty prices. Economic logic be damned; all bets are off. I wonder if this craziness will ever end?
Re: #3 Ian on 03.02.18 at 5:15 pm
If you look back at history all the major world stock exchanges with the exception of the Hang Seng and Nikkei exchange follow the U.S. market. Mark firmly believes the TSX can move independently of the U.S. markets. Good luck with that one unless gold spikes to $10,000 an ounce or higher.
What could go wrong here? lol
https://twitter.com/michellerempel/status/969642839704444929?s=21
“In essence, says his honour, this is just like the empty houses tax in Vancouver where people who use their properties consistently, but not full-time, are forced to hand over gobs of cash for no discernible reason.”
The reason seems pretty discernible to me. It boggles my mind how entitled people feel to recreation properties. Shelter is a fundamental human need. And there’s only so much space to go around. If you have a recreation property (or downtown condo or any other type of secondary residence), then you are hoarding space that someone else could use to live. You really should be taxed through the nose for that. I fully support the new measures.
Bring Comrade Horgan to Ontario – only if he comes with David Eby! Weaver can come along.
This coming from a GenX with mostly libertarian views.
Garth, with all due respect, again I am wondering if you’re trolling your own community. There was no other way to crush the RE cartel since nobody at Feds level care – both sides. And the seeds were sewn years ago as you very well know. If checks were put in place at right time against speculation (they should be on the stock market) and foreign money laundering we would not be here and there won’t be collateral damages.
Seriously, please offer any other solution that might work in the current conditions.
This is an interesting reminder that Amazon isn’t really going to eat the world. It is an amazing company with lots of head room but it breeds its own competition and regulator scrutiny.
– Dropbox’s Best Move Was Breaking Up With Amazon’s Cloud
“This years long shift to wean Dropbox off Amazon Web Services wasn’t glamorous work, but it improved Dropbox’s finances substantially. Without exaggeration, the shift away from cloud computing is one of the biggest reasons Dropbox is able to go public now”
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2018-03-01/dropbox-s-best-move-was-breaking-up-with-amazon-s-cloud
#32 Howard
Justin Trudeau would lose if an election were held tomorrow, India trip a symptom of shift in mood: Ipsos poll
—
I have some previous engagements, but I would make myself available.
Money is a funny thing and people don’t understand it.
Let’s leave the gold backed currency thing aside because that’s just an argument about whether gold miners should control the price of money or central banks should. Sure, gold is safer because it can’t be printed in unlimited supply but let’s assume modern central bankers know not to do that. Gold doesn’t scale to the current level of economic activity without massive deflation. It’s like trying to run your economy with a wind farm.
Instead, let’s look at what current money really is. It’s accounting. Math. Plain and simple. It’s a way of measuring the value of one thing against another that aren’t of similar effort. For example a roasted chicken is worth about $8 and a new Dodge 3500 can run up to $90,000. So the Dodge is worth about 11,250 roasted chickens, but that is a heck of a way to pay for it. So we invented money.
Money isn’t real, but it is how we intermediate all transactions, including the most important one where we trade our labor for other goods and services. The “invisible hand” in a free market is supposed to adjust all prices such that they relatively represent the value of the effort involved in producing them and the scarcity of the resources consumed.
Now what happens when the government tries to force a price to a certain objective they miraculously conceive to be more appropriate than what people are already prepared to pay? Well, lets say they set the price of roasted chickens to $15. Does this mean you can now get a Dodge truck for 6,000 roasted chickens instead of 11,250? Nope. The truck goes over time to $168,750 and the whole intended effect of raising the price of roasted chickens goes away. It doesn’t mater that the currency is now worth less than it was before, the relative value of things in the economy must be maintained, and in case you missed what I was talking about that includes the minimum wage. You can’t just raise it by decree, or you screw everything else up too. Eventually the economy will adjust and you will be right back where you started, only with different numbers.
So, since this isn’t a blog about minimum wages but instead is about housing, let’s look again at what the effect might be of the Toronto and Vancouver governments attempts to force house prices down. Well, I guess the question then is were they actually mispriced in the first place? They say the fair price of something is what somebody else is willing to pay. Of course that doesn’t account for bubbles, which can and do happen, but no previous bubble hasn’t resolved itself eventually without government intervention. So what is going to happen is I believe these government measures will prick the bubble and if they don’t quite yet more measures will be added until they accomplish what they want, but after that the measures will artificially lower prices. That means the value of everything else must also go down relative or it won’t be sustained.
Well, why would that happen? As I discussed here yesterday, if you suddenly experience a $300,000 loss of equity on your house, you are likely to not buy that new Audi and instead save more for retirement. That means the Audi salesman can’t afford as many cheeseburgers at his favorite $15/hour shop and somebody gets laid off. Once they are laid off they can’t pay the rent and move back in with mom. It trickles all through. It has to. That’s why attempts to manipulate prices always fail in the long run.
Want to know why they don’t build cars in Detroit anymore? It wasn’t the Japanese, it was the unions. The Japanese just capitalized on the fact that shipping a car to the US from Japan was now cheaper than the inflated labor rates. Want to know why a teacher gets paid more than almost any of the parents who send children to his/her class? Unions. Want to know why your cheeseburger meal is going to cost $15 in a couple of years instead of $9? Government. They could have just left it all alone and it would all be the same just without all the inflation.
Anyway, recession ahead for Canada. You can’t just increase everybody’s costs on the one hand and destroy their equity on the other without major repercussions. It will take some time for the “invisible hand” to sort it all out. Government is powerless to stop it.
The only way to run an economy without ruining it is to let people transact as they will and make their own decisions. No single person has enough knowledge to know what the price of something should be. Does that mean Vancouver isn’t in a bubble? No. But it should be left to the market to resolve it and it eventually will. Government intervention can only make it worse because the fact is no matter how many PhD’s they have on the case they really don’t know what to do, they just won’t admit it.
Yet in BC, regardless of supply levels, the prices keep rising…
Rising price on thinning trade is the harbinger of decline. – Garth
#62 Howard on 03.02.18 at 7:11 pm
#37 Chris on 03.02.18 at 6:25 pm
#Howard
In the US, most polls predicted a Hillary win. Opinion Polls are not necessarily accurate.
————————————
The US polls were mostly correct. Hillary won the popular vote by a considerable margin. She lost the election through a 1-in-a-100 chance distribution of votes in several key states that threw the electoral vote victory to Trump.
================
Correct. She lost by about 80,000 votes across four states which is a microscopic percent of the total. No polling method is accurate enough to predict that.
For the more mathematically inclined, here is the Boom-Bust formula. Meet the imaginary number “A”, which goes back below “P” because of hoarding. While it lasts, it the bubble looks like this. P might look like the yellow stuff, but it is actually the green stuff.
I’d like to say I’m at a bit of a loss on the outright hostility to ‘out of towners’ & the crowing about ‘taking our province back’. This imposing of walls to fellow Canadians is just nasty. Why care? Because it caters to tribalism, racism, regionalism etc. The property taxes paid by those ‘out of towners’ pays for civic infrastructure, which the locals get the use of. The smug crowing that ‘property ownership is not a right’ to justify this nasty behavior is just the ‘Envy’ icing on the ‘Covet thy neighbours’ cake.
https://youtu.be/Npqj2kSFmXg
The Clown Prince doesn’t understand what’s happening, nor do most of his voters.
The voting population is about to bifurcate like our American brothers.
Good thing I can do math.
Thanks Dad,
#46 Kyle on 03.02.18 at 6:39 pm
Toronto’s dip is temporary. It has already stabilized. Now watch as all of the demand in this market pushes prices back upwards. We are a global city now and prices reflect that.
Dude, you’re a Moron! Suck on your pacifier and cry me a river.
Stop with the B.S.!
#11 Garth wanted lower Van. house prices (in 2011). NDP delivered. Be happy. – SCM
—
Oh boy… censorship gives birth to “headline comment”, shorter than tweet. He is a guy for sure. @no!means!no
What’s next? You just sing it on youtube and link it?
As personally satisfying as it is to understand how all this works and to be able to see it coming….I think I liked it more when the value of my house and rsp only went UP over time.
‘Peoplekind’. Haha sneaky
And i dont mind stan’s posts,
#83 Andrew Woburn
The US polls were mostly correct. Hillary won the popular vote by a considerable margin. She lost the election through a 1-in-a-100 chance distribution of votes in several key states that threw the electoral vote victory to Trump.
================
Correct. She lost by about 80,000 votes across four states which is a microscopic percent of the total. No polling method is accurate enough to predict that.
—-
My recollection is that the “polling methods” predicted uncontested landslide.
She didn’t even have a speech for the “microscopic percent”.
She should have paid attention to Smoking Man. He nailed it microscopically.
It had to happen this way, anyway.
Here in God’s Country (hint….Province West of all other provinces / next to Pacific Ocean)
Too many people are UNclear of the NDP budget….a plethora of scenarios as to who and what will be taxed.
(Hell..I was born and raised here and still unclear where I stand).
Garth at least cuts to the chase and lays out some objective analysis with a foundation.
Alberta…man..you folks are hooped.
We realize you are an important part of the BC RE market,moreso outside the Metro Vancouver area… but if Oil etc. is your claim to fame and future prosperity… cut your losses and bail….it’s gonna get ugly…..especially via your Dipper Gov’t.
BC knows what a Dipper gov’t is and has the scars to prove it.
I wish you would stop calling our BC Premier “comrade”. That implies “communist”. It’s completely derogatory, coming from someone who prides himself in having civilized conversations.
For years you have stated that foreign buyers are insignificant in BC Real Estate purchases. Remember, Victoria was less than 1% according to your famous statistics. If so foreign tax should not have any impact on the prices.
Not my stats, comrade. The government gathered them. – Garth
People in Victoria and Kelowna don’t like outsiders hoarding the limited housing for their playground. What’s so wrong with that? All this commie talk is juvenile after years of this blog being so wrong.
If this is what it takes to pop the speculation bubble then tough titties for those who don’t live and work hard here to own a place.
#78 iogitra on 03.02.18 at 7:36 pm
Bring Comrade Horgan to Ontario – only if he comes with David Eby! Weaver can come along.
This coming from a GenX with mostly libertarian views.
—
You ain’t no libertarian.
We have not seen large decline in RE prices (YOY)…yet! Number of sales are down due to a variety of reasons, and people are just waiting to see what happens. 2018 will be a year of price challenges depending on supply and demand, but prices are expected finally start unwinding. Don’t expect huge price drops though – as mentioned by John Pasalis: “It’s going to take some time for this market to unwind”.
#59 John Dough
ENB traded today what it trades on average every trading day.
“Mark firmly believes the TSX can move independently of the U.S. markets. “
As seen over the past few years, the TSX has not been correlated with the US markets. Decorrelation isn’t just some academic posturing, its a fact. Thus, if the TSX and the US markets are to re-correlate, an inversely correlated move is quite necessary (and I would argue, quite probable).
The 1970s, additionally, are a great case study in the TSE/TSX solidly outperforming the US markets. Yes, heavily on account of the allocation to the resource and precious metals sector as you imply.
Ouch. BC. Bring cash.
Will my seasonal cabin at Kootenay Lake be next ?
Sooner or later many people in Canada will wake up and realize that their property(s) are causing them enormous stress in their lives. Rent and be free. Have fun, enjoy life and move forward. The suburban dream is not as good as it was before. Rent where you want to live instead. Look at the affordable rents for places to live in the nicest areas of the country. You would be amazed at what is out there for rent with more being added everywhere, every month.
“Booms almost always end in busts.”
Gee, what happened to your “slow melt*?
It’s the intensity, not the speed. Ask your spouse. – Garth
#77 Comrade
I live alone in a 2600 sq. foot 3 bedroom, 2 level house.
Should I too be taxed as I have space for at least 2 more people to share my house as it “is a right for shelter” and I am not fully utilising or sharing my valuable space?
The people who worked hard and can afford to have a vacation property should not be taxed for their efforts. Even some Cubans I know in Cuba have 2 properites…
#82 VanMan on 03.02.18 at 7:42 pm
Yet in BC, regardless of supply levels, the prices keep rising…
Rising price on thinning trade is the harbinger of decline. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
RE bubble denial is strong on the blog…
The next recession is going to be epic for Canada, that is for sure.
#95 Shane on 03.02.18 at 8:01 pm
I wish you would stop calling our BC Premier “comrade”. That implies “communist”. It’s completely derogatory, coming from someone who prides himself in having civilized conversations.
For years you have stated that foreign buyers are insignificant in BC Real Estate purchases. Remember, Victoria was less than 1% according to your famous statistics. If so foreign tax should not have any impact on the prices.
Not my stats, comrade. The government gathered them. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Shane, you need to extract something from your little snowflake arse…
I surprised myself by voting for Horgan’s Heroes in my first election vote in 15 years in Canada.
The B.C Liberals were so filthy in the end they needed to bathe in CLR for four years…
M43BC
#95 Shane on 03.02.18 at 8:01 pm
I wish you would stop calling our BC Premier “comrade”.
—
A commie tax is a commie tax. Only comrades can conceive it. Clarity is deliberating.
You know what’s great right now? Outside of this blog, I don’t hear anyone talking about real estate. Nor Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. Or how every hotshot is making 20% + on the stockmarket in a couple of weeks. That’s fantastic.
You know what everyone is talking about now?
Nothing.
The silence is deafening. Do they all think that if they just hold their collective breath long enough that everything will just go back to the way things were when everything just went up and up and everyone could just tap their heloc.
I’m kinda liking the silence.
Flop….
Keep in mind BC’s litany of quasi-Manchurian Candidates in Premiers role (at minimum last 3)……do a bio search….as well as COV mayor…
Not exactly from NON -dysfunctional roots…..
#53 Calgary Dude – This was the song when I hopped in my car to experience it all. The real story of the Mamas and Papas was a train wreck. It took the lead singer Denny Doherty, a Canadian, to disclose it all. Its a long amusing read and hard to find with the real truth, yet those days in Cali were exciting times. You might find it with a search – Dream A Little Dream Doherty.
#26 Interior girl on 03.02.18 at 6:00 pm
Hi Garth and gang, avid reader and first comment, all we hear is Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and kelowna real estate. I live in the interior of bc, tobiano golf course and would like to hear from other readers about what real estate is doing in other interior towns in Bc, tobiano golf course housing is doing great.
Thanks
Lulu
/////////////////
Lulu ,you need to sell.
Here is the price I recommend:$444,444
That’s,Fore,Fore,Fore,Fore,Fore Fore…
M43BC
Victoria Real Estate Board February stats last 5 years:
Active listings:
2014 – 3770
2015 – 3480
2016 -2562
2017 – 1537
2018 – 1545
Unit Sales:
2014 – 412
2015 – 542
2016 – 772
2017 – 675
2018 – 545
Benchmark detached prices:
2014 – $549,700
2015 – $557,000
2016 – $638,700
2017 – $771,100
2018 – $840,300
“#13 Mark on 03.02.18 at 5:35 pm
So much denial in the post-2013 peak era, its unbelievable.”
Mark, find a new cause to champion, seriously. You are alone in the universe in believing that YVR/GTA real estate prices peaked in 2013. Even Ross Kay has stated that Vancouver prices peaked in late 2016 and Toronto peaked in early 2017. Nobody cares that much about peak dates, except that you go on about your laughable 2013 peak theory so often that knowledgeable people feel compelled to correct you on this point from time to time. Other than that, your theory is of no interest to anyone, and adds no value to the real estate conversation. Give it a rest.
#103
It’s the intensity, not the speed. Ask your spouse. – Garth
—————————————————————–
GT-I am soooo virtually high-fiving you right now. *Chug. Crush can. Running chest-bump*
Let me know if you need any good “that’s what she said” or “your mom” material at any point. This place needs some levity.
#109 Stone on 03.02.18 at 8:43 pm
Of course, there’s the opposite of silence in the comment section of this blog, where the less than 1%, the ones who know something is really wrong, reside. The silence will be deafening
when the slide starts.
#95 Shane
Comrade…. open thine eyes.
There is ZERO evidence to the contrary that COMMUNISM is not only spreading, but winning.
I’ve stated ad nauseum there are (2) types of COMMUNISM:
(i) Stalin-esque via brute force (aka military conquest)
(ii) Trotsky-esque (aka slow gradual infiltration)
There is not one country in Western Civilization that has not acquiesed to Trotsky style…the end game is to extinguish diversity and promote homogeneity…which results in an easily controlled populace….review BOLSHEVIK REVOLUTION and MAO’s GREAT LEAP FORWARD REVOLUTION.
Watch Jiri Lina’s “In The Shadow of Hermes”..it will curl your hair.
BC’s NDP budget fits to a “T” the COMMUNIST agenda to depopulate the rural areas and concentrate the population in prisons…err…”Urban Centers”, where they can be more easily controlled.
GET IT ??????
The lower mainland, Vancouver and the southern interior are the nicest places in Canada,
More like the worst places, try going to the BC north coast,the most beautiful area.Underrated because nobody from the lower mainland will travel that far. But the most pristine outdoor enthusiast playground. It will gain notoriety when LNG gains momentum. It is the best place for young outdoor lovers.
YEAH BABY – I’ve been waiting for this Victoria market to take a kick – bring it on
RATM
Die Hard hero comes out with another block buster.
Bruce Willis is the man.
Death Wish. Going to see it tomorrow .
The Hollywood SJW pansy ass wossey salad eating critics are freeking. They hate it.
It’s been a long time since a good white dude killing a bunch bad dudes hit the big screen.
Read the reviews. Hallarious. The Starbuck philosophers here on full display.
I’m calling it a huge hit. With great box office number.
The tide is turning. About time.
With apologies to our gracious host for the long OT piece, but it is an important story by the CBC that I want to share with everyone
—————————
Canada Takes New Leadership Domestically And On The World Stage
By CBC Staff March 2, 2018
Sometimes Canada’s government takes a leadership role on both the national and the world stages without fully getting the credit it deserves. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s recent admonition to a woman at one of his town hall meetings to use the inclusive term “peoplekind” instead of “mankind” is one such example. (Related story: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-peoplekind-bad-joke-1.4524233)
In the wake of the Prime Minister’s remark, a flurry of activity has ensued to change “man” to “people” in a variety of contexts. Some of the consequences even appear unintended. The author and publisher of the well-known book previously titled “Men are from Mars and Women are from Venus” have reprinted the book, but this time bearing the title “Peoples are from Mars and Wopeoples are from Venus”.
The formerly men, now peoples, who found wopeoples confusing, are even more perplexed now. David Morton of Toronto perhaps summed it best: “I couldn’t understand the book before, but now I can’t wrap my head even around the title. That book was supposed to help [peoples] like me! I think the PM has a lot of peoplesplaining to do”.
Across the country, people have filed a tide of applications for name change that courts are clogged and cannot tend to more pressing matters, such as criminal dockets. According to CBC investigations, applications to change “Norman” to “Norpeople”, “Herman” to “Herpeople” and “Fishman” to “Fishpeople”, to name just a few examples, have been filed across the country.
Experts in the world of cybersecurity have voiced concern that the change causes the attack surface for one particular cyberattack to suddenly explode. Kristen Ingebretssen of the cybersecurity firm Four Eyes explained that the network attack previously termed “man-in-the-middle” has now become a “people-in-the-middle” attack. “Your encrypted communications suddenly are intercepted by a whole group of people not just one person as used to be the case!”, she said.
In Canada the reaction has been mixed. In PEI, some locals have expressed concern about losing their identity because of the change. Butch Stanton who used to haul fish from the ocean for a living, said he resents being called a “fisherpeople”. “It just doesn’t Just doesn’t sound [peoplely] anymore, does it?” he retorted. “And now that a single fisher’man’ overnight becomes a whole slew of fisherpeople, they will exhaust the seafood supply and make many more species extinct. So much for the Earth friendly government”.
But Ivan Cash, PEI’s finance minister, welcomed the changed. “What used to be the fee for a single license to a single person now becomes fees for multiple licenses to an entire people. A province like ours welcomes the new revenue, and we applaud the Prime Minister’s leadership in this”.
Similar sentiments were expressed by Gloria Wazckiew, president of a local union for trades. “Before this heroic move by our leader, companies would just hire one person, what we used to call a ‘tradesman’. But now they are hiring a whole group of our members for a single ‘tradespeople’ position”, she cheerfully explained to the CBC. Officials from local unions representing firepeoples, policepeoples and journeypeoples expressed similar praise for the change.
Monica Greenhorn, the head of the national Chamber of Commerce, however, was less sanguine. “The change has overnight wiped out vast swaths of goodwill that companies had worked for literally decades to establish”, she said in a telephone interview with the CBC. “Things like changing ‘Manpower Group’ to ‘Peoplepower Group’ are perhaps annoying but not catastrophic. But what about the small Toronto company Stallman Taxicab Co. that was hoping to take on the giant American company Uber? Now it’s called the Stallpeople Taxicab Co. which makes them the laughing stock of the transportation world. On whose side is the Trudeau government, Canadian small business or American megacorporations?”, Ms. Greenhorn stated.
“And then there’s the Winnipeg company ‘Huffman Movers’ that will now be ‘Huffpeople Movers’. I mean, they are not going to win any business in the whole city! And who is going to give recompense for the loss of good will to ‘Chapman Ice Cream’ which is now named ‘Chappeople Ice Cream’? Who is going to even recognize their products in the grocery store freezer?”, she demanded.
Jabmee N. Sing, the leader of the National Democratic Party, said he is going to launch a formal complaint with the government in Ottawa. He said: “After every snow storm we now have slews of exhausted kids across the nation. They used to make a single ‘snowman’, but now have to make a whole bunch of snowpeople, and they have to now sing ‘Frosties the Snowpeople’ while doing it! Too, their parents, hardworking Canadians struggling to make ends meet, now have to give up a whole bag of carrots, instead of just one carrot before. Clearly, this government has no regard for the plight of working Canadians”.
He also claimed the change has gender equality ramifications. “We have heard so many complaints from wopeoples across the country that they are now afraid of walking the public sidewalks. What used to be a modestly sized ‘manhole cover’ is suddenly taking up nearly the whole sidewalk as a scary ‘peoplehole cover’. Who would feel safe and who can blame them? Our sidewalks were one of our last remaining safe spaces. This is a sign of how out of touch with the concerns of everyday Canadians this government is!”
The change has made waves on the international stage too. In Mexico City, Mexico’s president said that Mexican people no longer fear the drug cartels. “‘El Chapo’ Guzman became ‘El Chapo’ Guzpeople which, at least to me, just doesn’t sound that scary anymore. We as a nation owe the Canadian prime minister a sincere debt of gratitude!”, he said through a translator.
But not everyone on the world stage echoed the Mexican president’s sentiments. Sheikh Anwar Mohammed Abu Al-Anwari of the country formerly called “Oman” said his country does not appreciate the move by Canada at the United Nations to rename the country “Opeople”. In an official interview with the CBC’s Middle Eastern bureau, he said: “If your prime minister is so clever, why does he not spend some time learning how old your country is? Is he not the one who while giving a speech in India said that Canada recently celebrated its 100th confederation anniversary? Why does Canada not pick on a country its own size, like the U.S.?”
The CBC contacted the Prime Minister’s Office for comment. Susan Mahoney, an official with the Prime Minister’s Office rejected Sheikh Al-Anwari’s position. “By now, everyone should know that when the Prime Minister says something, he is making a joke, and that he is not good at making jokes. Just today the Prime Minister reiterated that our government serves the middle class and all those who are working so hard to join it” she said.
It appears that Canada has also picked on someone its own size, our neighbor to the south, and Canada’s largest trading partner. Senator Bern E. Sandman, a Democrat who says he was inspired by the Canadian leadership the prime minister has demonstrated, has introduced a new bill in the U.S. Senate. Senator Sandman’s bill seeks to posthumously rename America’s 33rd president “Harry S. Trupeople”. Angered by the move, Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives have introduced a bill to strike America’s long-running antitrust legislation, which the Democrats have cherished, and which many on the right side of the political isle have long resented as an obstacle to free-market economics.
Representative Ima Forsail’s bill in the House seeks to overturn the ‘Sherman Act’ antitrust legislation that dates back to the Great Depression. “I mean, what lawyer worth his or her salt will stand up and tell a jury with a straight face that they should find the defendant guilty of violating the Sherpeople Act? This legislation has clearly been on borrowed time and it’s time we put an end to it”. Senator Sandman counters that just because the legislation will have to be renamed is no reason to end its use as a potent tool for federal antitrust prosecutors. “Just because lawyers now have to file ‘peopledamus’ petitions as opposed to what used to be called ‘mandamus’ petitions is not going to result in lawyers not filing those petitions. The Republican bill is clearly seeks to pave the way for companies like Amazon to pummel mom-and-pop business in this country”, the senator told the CBC.
According to an unnamed American government official who spoke with the National Public Radio in Washington, D.C., the Trump administration has found the entire fallout annoying. Apparently holding Canada responsible, it has retaliated by not excluding Canada from the newly-imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum.
The CBC contacted the Prime Minister’s Office to seek comment on the unnamed official’s allegations. A senior security official speaking on condition of anonymity told the CBC that the whole debacle has been the handiwork of American intelligence agencies. According to the security official, the American government planted the woman at the town hall meeting, and had instructed her to use the word “mankind” in order to elicit the “peoplekind” response from Prime Minister Trudeau. “It was all along their ploy to get an excuse to retaliate against Canadian steel and aluminum industries”, the security official told the CBC.
[PARODY]
Re #8 by Why Care?
BC’ers are tired of being the playground for foreign and domestic capital sloshing around in real estate. Time to take back the province for those that actually live and work and contribute something here – contribute more than paying property taxes and dinning out a few days of the year.
——————————————————————
This is a perfect example of the lack of understanding by British Columbians of the huge positive influence Albertans have had on the B.C. economy for decades. I guess there is going to be some ‘learnin’ happen in the next few years. I think that will ultimately be a good thing. I have the beer and popcorn ready.
“But as supply increases, Victoria will be in trouble. A small market in the epicentre of the lefty tax-tax bullseye. The ferries will be busy.” – Garth
——————————————————–
Again. Sounding the death knell of Canadian RE. Nope. Ain’t gonna happen. There may be small hiccup, but in 10 years time any Canadian RE will be significantly higher in price than it is today.
Dipstick # 79,
“The reason seems pretty discernible to me. It boggles my mind how entitled people feel to recreation properties. Shelter is a fundamental human need.”
A need yes, A right, no. Unless your disabled, that’s something you gotta earn.
“And there’s only so much space to go around.”
In Canada? I assume your joking. Oh, you meant in Van, I see, trouble is nobody needs to live, in Van.
“If you have a recreation property (or downtown condo or any other type of secondary residence), then you are hoarding space that someone else could use to live.”
Then why doesn’t “someone else” buck up and pay market value for said precious “space” like the actual owner did?
“You really should be taxed through the nose for that. I fully support the new measures.”
—————————-
Enjoy it while you can, cause its not going to last and RE is definitely not going to drop enough to let those whining about their sich, actually buy in ; )
I’ve seen this movie before in 2009.
How severe will the equity loss for the 70% of voters /owners and job losses for the general population need to get before Horgan backpedals his ass off, (trying in vain to save his head) while still boldy claiming:
‘Mission accomplished’.
This town lives and breathes RE. The golden goose may get its feather ruffled for optics sake, but no government is going take lop its head off….
I keep sayin it, Don’t fight the system.
Recent Sale Report.
This sale is so fresh it’s still up on Zolo
15417 Royal Avenue White Rock
Asking 1.488
Sold for 1.4 in the last day or two.
Wasn’t on the market very long…
M43BC
https://www.zolo.ca/white-rock-real-estate/15417-royal-avenue
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Feel free to make a donation.
Flop For Fox Fund…
http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/
59 CRA on 03.02.18 at 7:00 pm
#2 AGuyInVancouver
We already tax speculators. It’s called the capital gains tax and we will be looking into your account to make sure you have been fully disclosing your information.
We also already tax landlords, whether they are incorporated or not, if they make a profit.
We see the efforts in BC to shift the tax flow from the CRA to the province of BC and as such are going to cut off their transfer payments. They don’t need the money anymore.
—
agreed
the spec tax is a business expense
so you can deduct it from profits
Garth how about Montreal . Property taxes 2-3% of property value. So housing is affordable and it keep speculators out of city
houses in Langely are still 1 mil+
no changes yet…
#8 Why Care? on 03.02.18 at 5:25 pm
“…fleecing people who own properties just because they live in Alberta. Or Ontario. Or Washington state.”
Snip , Snip…
BC’ers are tired of being the playground for foreign and domestic capital sloshing around in real estate. Time to take back the province for those that actually live and work and contribute something here – contribute more than paying property taxes and dinning out a few days of the year.
=================================
WELL SAID!
#108 akashic record on 03.02.18 at 8:43 pm
#95 Shane on 03.02.18 at 8:01 pm
I wish you would stop calling our BC Premier “comrade”.
—
A commie tax is a commie tax. Only comrades can conceive it. Clarity is deliberating.
=================================
How much LSD do you have to take to read your AKASHIC RECORDS?
Dog in The Fight: BC is an extremely nice place to live, and we have been undercharging for that right. The lower mainland, Vancouver and the southern interior are the nicest places in Canada, and the world to live and giving away that right is morally wrong. I think the NDP has it right
which is why you voted for them but The pendulum never stops in the middle. Even without the NDP speculation tax, BC real estate was going to collapse. Banks are withdrawing credit, interest rates are going up, Vancouver is over priced. With the speculation tax, long time owners are going to leave. Never to return.
“giving away that right is morally wrong” Let’s hear you say that when real estate sales are 50% below the ten-year average. Including condos. There’s already blood:
Speaking of blood, sales of detached houses in Vancouver plunged 39% below the ten-year average last month.
Canada is chock full of Leftist nutjobs, and is well on its way to a well deserved Venezuelan style collapse. Quel dommage!
@81 nonplussed:
Banker from Australia with an apposite explanation for asset value inflation: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OeS6OQvdYMQ
When the value of a year of my professional work falls so far behind the value of housing here in Toronto, I’d like to attribute it to a glut of my type of professional, or a shortage of housing (or inverses re: demand side). However, it is very tempting to think it has more to do with wages just not keeping up with GFC / liquidity injection / ZIRP effects on housing. This is especially because there is continual talk about shortages in my profession.
The hard form argument blaming this all on government (and thus warranting government solutions) would say that the near-ZIRP policy moved incomes in the near term (within 10 years) out of proportion from core assets like housing. Compounded with top down housing policies, the green belt, quebec investor program, land transfer tax favored over simply higher annual property tax, conditions were then ripe for kids to then overleverage. The overleveraging and Bank of Mom stuff was a staying tactic that just delayed the inevitable, but is a secondary phenomenon. The banks and RE guys formed, stormed, normed and then we performed by signing on the dotted line. I still think Canadians have moral agency and deserve what’s coming for playing along, nevertheless…
The sad reality is that it’s a multivariate messy problem, and no quick government fix is going to work for all. The politics of envy will likely cut both ways.
I see the solution as protracted, painful and multifactorial as well. None are ‘slam dunks’:
– many boomers will eventually downsize (in their 80s or something); all will die. There are a lot of them still. How this shakes out for prices depends on how many people we bring into the city, how rich they are, and if our economic growth is proportionate
– young productive successful people may leave the GTA, the influx of more low income migrants may eventually raise tax requirements for the city’s homeowners
– out-migration brings productivity, jobs and better health care access to other places outside GTA – this would happen faster without rent control
– rates gradually increase, government seeks a balanced budget to avoid the moral hazard here
– wages catch up in the medium term as inflation in other assets make capital to income / mortgage to income ratios come back in line
– as ‘barbell’ economies in ‘alpha’ cities make quality of life for the middle class worse, an atavistic drive to the suburbs/exurbs may become the next generation’s cultural norm
– technological factors such as hyperloop, hypersonic flight, robotic surgery, telemedicine, e commerce and self driving cars may change the economics of city vs exurban / rural living: who knows when?
None of these solutions make me think I should stick around waiting for it be solved, btw. Like Matt, I expect I’ll shortly be clearing off to greater opportunity elsewhere. Unless one you blog dogs has a quicker fix???
#21 Guy in Calgary on 03.02.18 at 5:55 pm
It’s all too bad really.
I do not understand the logic of taxing Canadian out of towners (Albertans, Ontarians etc) that own property in a TOURIST town. It’s not like it is the only place in Canada people go to play… (Muskoka for example).
Places like Kelowna need tourism to survive. This BC tax will hurt BC. I guess this is what they wanted though? The whole situation is very confusing.
Grab the popcorn.
*********************
How does Kelowna survive without tourism in the non summer months? The locals are just paying stupid house prices.
No offense but Alberta needs to diversify. Things don’t last forever – new technology is norm in this day and age.
BC is in a bubble and it extends to just about every municipality. Besides I am hearing from friends who are moving back to Calgary as houses are cheaper.
“What were BC voters thinking? ”
They did the right thing.
Foreign buyers tax should be at least 50% better yet no foreign buyers allowed. Speculation tax should be at least 10% .
Andrew Weaver is our hero.
#99 Cow Man on 03.02.18 at 8:10 pm
#59 John Dough
ENB traded today what it trades on average every trading day.
************
Exactly. Now ask why anyone would sell a large cap utility yielding 6.6%.
#128 DON
How does Kelowna survive without tourism in the non summer months?
——————————————————–
There are a lot of retired Albertans living in the Okanagan valley. Spending their pensions creates a lot of service positions.
#79 Comrade Dipstick on 03.02.18 at 7:36 pm
….
Shelter is a fundamental human need. And there’s only so much space to go around.
——
Canada has more than enough space for everyone on the planet. Just look out the window.
We are not so much taxing people who own extra properties in order to free up those particular properties as to lower the prices of all properties. These taxes serve the same purpose as a bucket of water in breaking up a dogfight. It makes the dogs pause for long enough to realize how stupid they are being.
#67 common sense on 03.02.18 at 7:14 pm
#45 Reality
Good post…what other businesses do you think will be in high demand soon?
Bankruptcy lawyers, moving companies, rentals, storage units, estate sale organisers, auction houses, therapists, dating sites, debt collectors, etc…
Please add everyone..the opportunities abound.
********************
A new filmed in BC ‘RepoPeople’ show.
Canada is a nice place but our bias is obvious when you travel and see the world. Hanging out in Key West, probably the nicest place in America and a house is less than some crack shack in Vancouver or some McMansion in suburbia GTA. The best part is seeing the Ernest Hemingway house and learning about his life. He lived in Toronto and was a correspondent for the Toronto Star. He eventually moved because he thought Toronto was boring. Well, 100 years later and not much has changed. Yet we we think everyone is trying to move here.. We are delusional.
Actually Garth, the biggest consequence of this stupidity tax will be to reduce the mobility of labour, especially young people in Victoria who may need to hit the road for a few years in search of ops. They will either have to do a fire sale, or eat into their savings to pay these dumb taxes. Communism is alive and well!
#2 AGuyInVancouver on 03.02.18 at 5:15 pm
——————–
He’s not against taxing speculators. He’s against taxes that whack non-locals for no good reason. A proportion of real estate is owned by non-BC residents….that proportion is about to shrink faster than Costanza in a cold shower.
#14 Dog in The Fight on 03.02.18 at 5:36 pm
BC is an extremely nice place to live, and we have been undercharging for that right. The lower mainland, Vancouver and the southern interior are the nicest places in Canada, and the world to live and giving away that right is morally wrong.”
You need to get out more. That rain laden crap-hole would have to pay me to live there. The lack of jobs, culture, lots of dim people, drug addicts everywhere, and 9 months of cold rain.
“Even Ross Kay has stated that Vancouver prices peaked in late 2016 and Toronto peaked in early 2017.”
Vancouver average selling prices peaked at those times (you can look up the data), but not prices on sequential transactions of individual identical properties between arms length entities. Ross Kay has made this perfectly clear and goes on at length in his broadcasts that he feels the peak of constant mix, constant quality prices was, like the conclusion I came to, around 2013-2014.
He has some pretty harsh words about the RE agents that run around claiming condos went up 50% in a year, “impossible”.
He can be a bit hard to listen to, and you need to really have your head wrapped around things because his presentation can be quite cryptic, but its simply not accurate to misquote him in such a way.
#70 Penny Henny on 03.02.18 at 7:17 pm
#13 Mark on 03.02.18 at 5:35 pm
So much denial in the post-2013 peak era, its unbelievable.
//////////
Mark as I like to say to one of my friends.
” You are the dumbest smart guy I know”
This is you.
**************
One explanation: Mark is using a time portal to access this blog from the past. Maybe it is 2013 for him.
Sorry Mark you need to back your claims up with hard data.
#131 45north
I have travelled the world. There will be adjustments in the short term to BS RE estate. Short and long term this is an awesome place to live. We need to limit home many people live here and maintain paradise. Governments will come and go, as will housing prices. I want to leave something special to my grandchildren. If you want to live in BC bring lots of cash. If you don’t have cash, there is lots of frozen tundra for you.
As they say in Vancouver “anything past Hope, is hopeless”
PFaht_Coot #78:
Michelle Rempel. She wants to be Canada’s Ann Coulter, but the best she can manage is being Canada’s Helen Lovejoy.
Seriously: if she could relay how / what she would do better, I might be interested. But if all she can do is shrilly complain, I just turn her off.
#108 akashic record on 03.02.18 at 8:43 pm
#95 Shane on 03.02.18 at 8:01 pm
I wish you would stop calling our BC Premier “comrade”.
—
A commie tax is a commie tax. Only comrades can conceive it. Clarity is deliberating.
**************
LOL…All Political Parties are the same – they all tax and spend. We have enough witnesses in Canada. Die hard party supporters of any kind are bad for our democracy. I want a MLA>MP to represent my community and to be able to vote against the party line. Time to evolve folks!
Our Democracy requires maintenance and continuous improvement.
#144 DON on 03.02.18 at 10:57 pm
#70 Penny Henny on 03.02.18 at 7:17 pm
#13 Mark on 03.02.18 at 5:35 pm
So much denial in the post-2013 peak era, its unbelievable.
//////////
Mark as I like to say to one of my friends.
” You are the dumbest smart guy I know”
This is you.
**************
One explanation: Mark is using a time portal to access this blog from the past. Maybe it is 2013 for him.
Sorry Mark you need to back your claims up with hard data.
—————————————————————–
This guy figured real estate was crashing back in 2013 but it just kept right on going.
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/business/crash-and-burn/
#109 Stone on 03.02.18 at 8:43 pm
You know what’s great right now? Outside of this blog, I don’t hear anyone talking about real estate. Nor Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. Or how every hotshot is making 20% + on the stockmarket in a couple of weeks. That’s fantastic.
You know what everyone is talking about now?
Nothing.
The silence is deafening. Do they all think that if they just hold their collective breath long enough that everything will just go back to the way things were when everything just went up and up and everyone could just tap their heloc.
I’m kinda liking the silence.
***********************
I am noticing the same thing! Silence.
The herd is has been spooked.
Yes everyone will suffer (credit drying up). But some will suffer way more than others. Not going to be fun to watch but it was bound to happen.
CIBC has new policies for lending to foreigners. No more funny money?
Blacksheep: “I’ve seen this movie before in 2009.”
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Blacksheep, you made the right decision in 2009 and then the BOC dropped interest rates down to emergency rates. Frustrating and unexpected for the average Joe.
We both know what happens when you give monopoly money to kids. The mania that followed wasn't unexpected.
If you bought a forever house then you have no dog in this fight.
You have also done enough homework in your "bear" life to know what happened in the States when the powers that be "backpedalled".
Didley squat, nada, nothing … no save.
I think you know enough that what is coming is going to be beyond any of our experiences.
I hope that you'll come out of this okay, buds.
Good luck.
#130 NEVER GIVE UP on 03.02.18 at 9:52 pm
How much LSD do you have to take to read your AKASHIC RECORDS?
—-
There is no such thing as my or your akashic record, of course.
The sacred steps of sufi whirling will do. You need plenty of those until you get the ride of Hoffman’s bicycle.
#143 strimukil on 03.02.18 at 10:48 pm
#14 Dog in The Fight on 03.02.18 at 5:36 pm
BC is an extremely nice place to live, and we have been undercharging for that right. The lower mainland, Vancouver and the southern interior are the nicest places in Canada, and the world to live and giving away that right is morally wrong.”
You need to get out more. That rain laden crap-hole would have to pay me to live there. The lack of jobs, culture, lots of dim people, drug addicts everywhere, and 9 months of cold rain.
====================================
I have to agree, unfortunately, even as a native BC son. Having lived around the world I would submit that BC (and Canada) is blessed with incredible natural beauty.
But economically, socially, and culturally it is way, way below mediocre.
Constantly telling yourselves and each other that it is special, is kinda well, “special”.
RE #145 DON on 03.02.18 at 10:57 pm
#70 Penny Henny on 03.02.18 at 7:17 pm
#13 Mark on 03.02.18 at 5:35 pm
So much denial in the post-2013 peak era, its unbelievable.
//////////
Mark as I like to say to one of my friends.
” You are the dumbest smart guy I know”
This is you.
**************
One explanation: Mark is using a time portal to access this blog from the past. Maybe it is 2013 for him.
Sorry Mark you need to back your claims up with hard data.
truely unbelievable ****?
#128 renter in Surrey on 03.02.18 at 9:39 pm
houses in Langely are still 1 mil+
no changes yet…
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Except for all of the houses in Langley that aren't. Sheesh, at least check out realtor.ca before you make your comments.
#137 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 03.02.18 at 10:31 pm
#128 DON
How does Kelowna survive without tourism in the non summer months?
——————————————————–
There are a lot of retired Albertans living in the Okanagan valley. Spending their pensions creates a lot of service positions.
****************
If they are living there full time aren’t they now considered British Columbians.
Those in low paid service jobs cannot afford to live among the kings and queens from Alberta.
There comes a time when people just don’t give a shit and are willing to take the consequences. Where else are Albertains going to Vacation, Sask or Manitoba. I herd the Yukon was nice. If you want to unite BC keep up the Poor me Alberta talk. The market is falling without the speculation tax. Or maybe Alberta’s retirees will sell their houses in Alberta and remain in BC, no spec tax. Lots of things can happen.
Forgot to add please stick to the facts
“I live alone in a 2600 sq. foot 3 bedroom, 2 level house.
Should I too be taxed as I have space for at least 2 more people to share my house as it “is a right for shelter” and I am not fully utilising or sharing my valuable space?”
It’s not a bad idea. It occurred to me the other day that empty property taxes miss the mark. What the politicians really should tax is empty bedrooms. After all, there is a huge supply of family homes in this country held by aging boomers who stubbornly refuse to downsize.
I have cousins in Kelowna in their 30s and 40s. Maybe now they will be able to buy a starter home in their own community. I am more interested in that, than rich Bay Streeters having ski homes there for occasional use. Multiple homes in areas with housing shortages is not a human right no matter how rich you are.
One of the reasons for low listing numbers is the sheer cost of moving house in Canada. You can pay one or two years of your income in commission and expenses for very little effort from your RE agent. If one no longer makes money and moves up the housing ladder by swapping houses, why would you do it. Yes there is always debt, death and divorce but these numbers are low compared to the ‘just fancy a better place’ crowd. If RE commissions dropped to the same 1.5% paid here in Britain then more houses will go up for sale. The lack of fresh meat in the market will support house prices in spite of all these new regs.
Like many of the other posters have stated…..if the foreign buyers are not the problem – and its all locals – as we have been told for several years now – then tax on tax on tax should not matter if yer a local.
The second home thingy for “locals” will get fixed. So lets not pick on that issue.
The BC NDP never have had even a basic understanding of finance and economics. To suggest in a public forum they want to see the housing market fall is the epitome of stupidity.
The speculation tax is misguided and will inadvertently punish many as the unintended consequences mount. The surprise tax on business will affect employment and may lead to businesses seeking to relocate elsewhere.
Comrade Horgan seems intent on reminding BC voters why the NDP were reduced to only two seats after the last time they were in power. They are effectively outright incompetent.
#141 strimukil on 03.02.18 at 10:44 pm
Actually Garth, the biggest consequence of this stupidity tax will be to reduce the mobility of labour, especially young people in Victoria who may need to hit the road for a few years in search of ops. They will either have to do a fire sale, or eat into their savings to pay these dumb taxes. Communism is alive and well!
*******************
People in Victoria are already prisoners in their houses..with interest rates rising etc mobility was bound to take a hit…regardless of the speculation tax.
And it rains 12 months a year in BC. No need for you to come here.
Garth,
You know no one loves freedom of speech, or freedoms of any kind, more than I do. You put it in your blog policy. We even allow real estate bulls on here, lol. Which I think is great! The more open discussion and debate the better. You even put up with my gold theory.
But Mark really, really has to go. It’s just nonsensical drivel post after post.
Dog in The Fight on 03.02.18 at 11:02 pm
As they say in Vancouver “anything past Hope, is
hopeless”
======================
I like to say, “From my perspective, anything back east is beyond Hope”.
#104 common sense on 03.02.18 at 8:25 pm
Be careful with levity. In some of eastern Europe’s socialist countries governments imposed tenants on house owners where living space exceeded prescribed footage per person. And guess who collected the rent? Benefit to the house owner? They got to keep the building. It may be hard to imagine now but some form of such “solution” to housing shortage is not out of realm of possibilities if Canadians keep voting left. Hell, it’s happening now; isn’t Empty Homes Tax in Vancouver a version of that?
Talk to any agent and they’ll tell you that the last 2 weeks has been like someone turning the lights off in the GTA. Once all pre-approvals prior to B20 drys up by mid-March (it’s drying up much quicker), the prices are dropping by a quick 20% ….. You are looking at 30-40% drops from last years peak by this summer. Rumour has it, quite a few large GTA chinese and middle eastern investment brokerages have unwinded most of their investment properties in the past few months….. Always follow the smart money.
#89 Wang
You’re a fool. There are an astronomical number of Millennials living with their parents right now, waiting to jump into this market. What, do you think they’ll just stay in Mom’s basement forever? To say nothing of immigration to Toronto.
Garth – I’ve noticed that Coast Capital Savings has started offering 4% on savings, way above comparable competition. Is this a sign of credit stress or something similar developing?
Welcome to the Machine
What the hell created the likes of SCM and it’s kind. Back in the day, life was easy. Late 70’s a High school diploma got you a good paying gig at the local factory. You could buy a house, start a family, white picket fence and all.
Everyone I know did it. Globalism was planting its roots right around that time. Music, the writing the arts free of influence other than some good LSD. Slowly it got taken over by the social engineers and the master plan executed by the educational industrial complex.
Teachers are cowards, they took the easy safe hands path. They would never risk a god damn thing. They were bought. They watched assholes like me who could barely speel prosper and succeed, boats, golf club memberships and all the superficial shit that a businessman needs to project to get the next deal done so he can feed his employees while eating craft dinner.
So we have had several generations of envious spitefull teachers pushing the communist utopia because their teachers told them that gambling is bad. Safe hands.
T2 and Wynee never made bet, they know safe hands, no risk just steal from taxpayers. The UN is made up of a bunch of teacher’s pets that figured out at a young age a shiny apple and some ass kissing can get you a long way up the food chain. No effort required, just use pre-approved sanctioned words.
Al the while there has been a sinister plot brewing by the likes of Bilderberg, Davos elites. They know robots will take over soon, and the value of slaves goes down and let’s face it, too many useless eaters around.
How do we depopulate? they must be asking themselves. These starving heathens out there will soon crash our walls and kill our armed guards.
The first thing they need to do is take away guns, but not after they use Identity politics to make normal loving people hate each other over made up nothingism.
Even the homeless bastards that I’ve made friends with here in SoCal, free booze from me, have it so much better than 80% of the world’s population. Every time I hear the likes of SCM bitch about shit. I just want to bend her over my knee and spank her. No idea how good life is compared to the rest of the world.
Everybody who participates in this game has no idea they are in a game, a game of mind control.
Except for me. Gonzo reporting is a thing of the past, I’m trying to resurrect it.
The truth lies at the bottom of the wisdom of an empty bottle of JD
Dr. Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics
I’m really drunk right now but can still make a flame to the end of a cigarette butt.
I’m good
So let me get this straight. You’re pretty well saying BC should continue to go in the same direction the BC Liberals and corrupt Christy were going in real estate. That is do nothing and just wait for the market to correct itself. Let thousands of more people ruin their lives in debt. Great advise Garth. Lucky thing the voters in BC don’t were smart enough to realize conservatives always create disasters in office and boot them out. We learned our lesson
Where did I say anything like that? – Garth
Bust ? ha… this is nothing compared to the armaghedon starting in June.
Tor is 3rd wolrld anyway…so by the end of it-in a few long years- it won’t matter anyway
http://matrix.buywhistler.com/Matrix/Public/Portal.aspx?ID=522437319#1
I guess B20 isn’t doing much in these parts. These were $330k 2 years ago.
#147 Smartalox on 03.02.18 at 11:03 pm
PFaht_Coot #78:
Michelle Rempel. She wants to be Canada’s Ann Coulter, but the best she can manage is being Canada’s Helen Lovejoy.
——————————————-
She’s one of the more liberal members of the Conservative caucus. She led the push for the party to embrace gay marriage for instance.
Ann Coulter-like? Why, because she is a blond female? They’re all the same?
“Well, lets say they set the price of roasted chickens to $15. Does this mean you can now get a Dodge truck for 6,000 roasted chickens instead of 11,250? Nope. The truck goes over time to $168,750 and the whole intended effect of raising the price of roasted chickens goes away”
This actually does not happen IRL. Economics is more complicated than that. Using your car analog, look at Singapore car prices vs chickens or other food.
And how bad did the trip go for India…?
Trudeau rejects allegation India’s higher chickpea tariffs a result of his controversial trip
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tory-mp-argues-trudeaus-india-trip-behind-spike-in-chickpea-tariffs/article38184458/
I remember when my computer science teacher in hi-school did same thing for his pupils to show them difference between DOS command prompt and Unix shell… I don’t know how we from there ended up toying with db3+ and clipper reminder of the year on one 286 I think xt on 36 kids class… how many of you remembers qbasic gorillas?
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2018/03/01/589519475/computer-teacher-with-no-computers-chalks-up-clever-classroom-plan
Outdoor golf is so overrated. Me thinks information driving range is place to congrigate with track 5ers.
https://www.instagram.com/p/Be7kBDZAkwT/
Should read indoor, not information… But it seems that keyboard has mind of its own some time s.
@ #174 Al on 03.03.18 at 3:12 am
Hey dude what are you are ai or al, it bugs me ever since.
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.theverge.com/platform/amp/tldr/2018/2/28/17062338/ai-agent-atari-q-bert-cracked-bug-cheat
#148 DON on 03.02.18 at 11:22 pm
#108 akashic record on 03.02.18 at 8:43 pm
#95 Shane on 03.02.18 at 8:01 pm
I wish you would stop calling our BC Premier “comrade”.
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A commie tax is a commie tax. Only comrades can conceive it. Clarity is deliberating.
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LOL…All Political Parties are the same – they all tax and spend. We have enough witnesses in Canada. Die hard party supporters of any kind are bad for our democracy. I want a MLA>MP to represent my community and to be able to vote against the party line. Time to evolve folks!
Our Democracy requires maintenance and continuous improvement.
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MLA’s & MP’s are able to vote whichever way they wish. They prefer to vote with their leader so they don’t end up voiceless, in a corner. The party line is usually the line expected to garner the most support from the electorate. Ongoing maintenance could include term limits for all members, and financial transparency during and after leaving office. Fed. funding for the Prov. accountability office and vice versa. Establish quotas on the number of lawyers and adopt educational prerequisites (e.g. economics for Finance, medicine for Health, Gr. 12 math for everyone else).
“Throw the bums out” isn’t as effective as it once was, but it is the foundation of democracy. The new wrinkle in forming public opinion is that, in addition to newspapers, TV, and gossip, we now have the internet. A briefing in the Economist (“The Discord Amplifier”) describing new-age Russian propaganda is a possible answer to what I occasionally read here. It is disturbing.
(This message was approved by the Free SCM Party)
https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21737297-mueller-indictment-reveals-some-kremlins-tactics-russian-disinformation-distorts
Interesting read
i’m wondering why ibm-q , quantum computer looks like barrel of oil..
https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-era-of-quantum-computing-is-here-outlook-cloudy-20180124/
#66 Howard on 03.02.18 at 7:11 pm
#37 Chris on 03.02.18 at 6:25 pm
#Howard
In the US, most polls predicted a Hillary win. Opinion Polls are not necessarily accurate.
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The US polls were mostly correct. Hillary won the popular vote by a considerable margin. She lost the election through a 1-in-a-100 chance distribution of votes in several key states that threw the electoral vote victory to Trump.
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The polls were not “mostly correct” . They were just plain wrong. They were measuring something that was irrelevant. Their methodology was skewed. They tried to manipulate the data. Sounds like Realtors doesn’t it? Scott Adams of Dilbert fame picked Trump as the winner long before the game started. He, like Trump, understood the Game.
As to Hillary winning the popular vote, she won a game that no one else was playing and a game that meant nothing. It just shows you how incompetent she and her team were.
If it was all about popular vote Trump would have played a game that was all about popular vote. But it wasn’t and he was smart enough to know that.
To quote Robert DiNiro in the movie “The Deerhunter”. There’s a scene where he’s holding up a bullet and showing it to his scatterbrained friend who forgot his hunting boots for the umpteenth time. DiNiro says “This is this. It isn’t something else. This is this.”
Trump understood that “This is this..”. Hillary didn’t. The pollsters didn’t either. And so far they still haven’t.
Wealth inequality in British Columbia. Interesting read.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Richest+tenth+families+half+province+wealth+report/10194471/story.html
You dirty SHYSTER. Prices in the GTA are C R A S H I N G HARD and it will only get worse.
http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.hcg&postid=27639044
#166 guru on 03.03.18 at 12:41 am
Talk to any agent and they’ll tell you that the last 2 weeks has been like someone turning the lights off in the GTA. Once all pre-approvals prior to B20 drys up by mid-March (it’s drying up much quicker), the prices are dropping by a quick 20% ….. You are looking at 30-40% drops from last years peak by this summer. Rumour has it, quite a few large GTA chinese and middle eastern investment brokerages have unwinded most of their investment properties in the past few months….. Always follow the smart money
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Regarding foreign investment, that makes perfect sense. If the “dreaded foreigners” who purchase are not living here much of the time, then they did this primarily as an investment (perfectly legal in 99% of the world for our not-so-well-travelled Canadian comrades). My wife and I did this with a Florida condo.
As the markets were rising, the investors jumped in. As the markets turn (for what looks like at least a few years) they will take their gains and move elsewhere. Probably won’t affect GTA too much, but it is a further driver for falling prices.
I remember back in the 2004 – 2007 timeframe Florida was much like B.C., in that there was blowback against out of state owners. Laws were being enacted to protect locals, which were quickly withdrawn after the crash as they desperately wanted people with money to come and purchase.
#83 Nonplused – “Does that mean Vancouver isn’t in a bubble? No. But it should be left to the market to resolve it and it eventually will.”
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Oh, I see, it was okay to have heavy government intervention all the way up, but no government intervention now?
Governments engineered and steered immigration and housing policies, looked the other way on faking income and money laundering/shell corporations, the central bank suppressed interest rates, but somehow that was called CAPITALISM.
Now that new governments are trying to undo the damage, that’s called SOCIALISM?
Sure, things would probably resolve on their own, but because so much fuel had been added on the way up, that might take a long time. People don’t have their whole lives to wait.
Fuelling BC’s economy: where does our wealth come from?
http://credbc.ca/role-energy-sector-bcs-economy
It will be interesting to look at these charts again in another 4 years once the new government is done with it.
The joys of being governed by rich people’s children:
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/03/01/finance-minister-faces-more-accusations-of-conflict-of-interest-over-pharmacare.html
We can’t have universal pharmacare, because doing so would put private insurers out of business, and our Finance Minister just happens to be the son of the founder of one of the largest such private insurers.
Cheers proles!
Nonplused on 03.02.18 at 7:40 pm
Money is a funny thing and people don’t understand it.
*******
Avoiding the Comment Section for a while now. However comments like these bring me back to here, looking for the gems in the rubble.
I guess I am kind of like the two or three guys with pick up trucks who peruse the local garbage dump on Saturdays and leave with more weight/stuff than they arrived with.
Where all the wealth resides in Vancouver.
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/lists-and-rankings/richest-neighbourhoods/british-columbia-2014/
Buying a place in Victoria or Arizona? Florida? Cali? Europe? An additional $14,000 will buy a lot of health insurance down south or across the pond each and every year.
At the same time all money spent to live for 3, 4, or 6 months each year will exit Canada never to return, especially to B.C.
The world could increase the property value in the poorest section of Venezuela or anywhere else if we just agreed to keep the Olympic Games in one place until the end of time. There wasn’t anyone I talked to including myself who watched one minute of the Olympics was well we all feel it is a huge waste of money. It is time we had a look at it and perhaps get social media young people to move on this idea as the debt will be their legacy….
#156 DON on 03.02.18 at 11:56 pm
maybe Alberta’s retirees will sell their houses in Alberta and remain in BC
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That’s what they did. That’s why houses are less expensive in Alberta. That and the 3 feet of snow they have today.
@Key West, post #140:
Good post! We need a refreshing dose of reality in the comments every now and then. A lot of Canadians need to get out and travel more and see there’s a world outside of Toronto which, contrary to popular belief, is not the centre of the universe.
#162 DON on 03.03.18 at 12:20 am
And it rains 12 months a year in BC. No need for you to come here.
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It snows 10 months a year in Alberta. That’s why Albertans retire to BC. The only months I don’t remember it snowing are June and July, though I admit the August snow didn’t last long. For the three months that don’t get much snow, it hails. That’s still frozen water on the ground 12 months a year. I keep my snow tires on the truck all year ’round.
IPSOS poll, maybe it’s goodbye Liberals in 2019: https://globalnews.ca/news/4058984/justin-trudeau-india-trip-ipsos-poll/
The 1970s, additionally, are a great case study in the TSE/TSX solidly outperforming the US markets. Yes, heavily on account of the allocation to the resource and precious metals sector as you imply.
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TSX will not outperform the US markets. You have been horribly wrong for some time and are doubling down?
OIL is at $60 + and the TSX is down 5% ytd. Gold ? lol
kudos to those that are underweight the TSX. Wasn’t exactly a hard call to make tho
“thoughts and prayers,”no need to “own” a gun’ when…for example:
TIAA – Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association
shares are in actively managed funds.
blackrock has an interesting response
The ten firms with the most invested in gun-related companies include:
https://thinkprogress.org/funds-invested-guns-89023d415e0c/
Our unfortunate leadership:
https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=ec4_1520041458
#170 Jake
Lucky thing the voters in BC don’t were smart enough to realize conservatives always create disasters in office and boot them out.
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Glen Clark’s ‘fast ferries’ debacle comes to mind. Not to mention the night the RCMP raided his house looking for evidence of influence peddling.
@#199 Damfino
Ahhh yes the “Fast Ferries”
Estimated at 150 million. Eventually built for 450 million. A “legacy project” Glen Clark pushed through even though all the experts recommended against it.
The ships were eventually sold but the Campbell Liberals for LESS than the scrap value of the metal ( $20 million for all three ships)
Criminal doesn’t even begin to describe that give away of taxpayer assets.
“Fast Forward” to Christy Clark of the Liberals.
Site C Dam.
Originally estimated at 2 billion. She promised to “get it to the point of no return”.
After the NDP came to power they looked at it and agreed….to stop now and pay out the contracts will put the taxpayers on the hook for 4 billion and an unfinished abandoned dam.
So, we the BC taxpayer,s are on the hook for 9 to 11 billion on construction costs for a dam that isn’t needed, wanted , or recommended( an earthen dam built in a seismically unstable area with fracking licenses all around it…..brilliant).
BC Hydro will be saddled with a 70 year , multi billion dollar debt for a power project that will be forced to sell for a loss.
Taxpayers to the rescue.
As for Glen Clark’s piddly $15k cottage deck built by a neighbor trying to get a casino license….. pffft.
Doesn’t hold a candle to Christy Clarks 50K per annum cash infusions by her own Party for “expenses” Or the 15k a plate private lunch “fund raisers” held by the Libs.
Liberals ….rotten to the core.
NDP are the schmucks let to pick up the shattered fiscal pieces when Frumpty Dumpty fell off her wall.
Re Spec tax…BC residents are not exempt….prove govt is going to give some sort of tax credit against BC income tax paid. So this may or may not offset the 2% tax.
Last
Maybe I’ll move down to Kelowna for my continuing retirement, once the house prices are cut in half. Because that’s what they’re really worth. Crappy houses for 500K+ with no updates for the last 50 years, requiring at least 100K to make liveable, or new chipboard condos for 500K and large strata fees. But without the Albertans propping up this place (which is really just a summer tourist/party town after all), it could be in really serious trouble.
Which I’m sure Comrade Horgan doesn’t care about one iota, since they are Lib ridings – it’s Surrey voters he must pander to with things like no bridge tolls and new bridges (paid by all taxpaying BCers).
If the BC NDP can’t stop pipelines or Site C, they will certainly find a way to wreck BC’s economy. Anti oil and gas, anti fracing, anti-piplines (in bed with the environuts), anti fish-farms, pro UNDRIP and everything aboriginal, rising min wages, now anti house prices – Good Luck BC.
Maybe, come to think about it, Calgary is a better choice for retirement. Cold in the winter, but they have a really good international airport.
I’m worried about Smoking Man. Just hanging with L.A. street people. Knocking back a fifth of Night Train with a Mad Dog 20/20 chaser. I suspect he is beginning to look like Danny Trejo at his baddest.
#176 Midnights on 03.03.18 at 6:57 am
Trudeau rejects allegation India’s higher chickpea tariffs a result of his controversial trip
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The hell with the chick pea nonsense, the tariffs on steel from the U.S. are the real serious problem. But don’t worry Mr. Dressup will be on it as soon as he decides what costume to wear. What a prat!
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/canada/canada-will-be-the-most-impact-by-a-steel-tariff/
#144 Mark on 03.02.18 at 10:51 pm
“Ross Kay has made this perfectly clear and goes on at length in his broadcasts that he feels the peak of constant mix, constant quality prices was, like the conclusion I came to, around 2013-2014.”
Ross Kay goes on about the sales mix like you do but you won’t find him saying prices peaked in 2013 (or 2014) in any recent podcast of his, because he knows how ridiculous that would sound. Take this podcast from April 2017 about Vancouver, for instance, he talks about that market turning in “the spring of 2016” after “unsustainable price growth” (at 1:25 in the video). No mention of a 2013 price peak. Then, at 3:03: “the reason you want a 30% (foreign buyer’s) tax in British Columbia or Vancouver is when you look at the historical price trends in British Columbia, you need a 30% increase just to eliminate that five year window of house price appreciation.” Again, no talk of prices having stagnated/fallen since 2013:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1VzGjqIQmss
@#205 Old Ron
“I suspect he is beginning to look like Danny Trejo at his baddest.”
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The same Danny Trejo in Machete?
Seemed to be quite the babe magnet.
There’s hope for Smokey yet.
Re #208:
Yes It’s intervention time. Smokey is clearly off the wagon.
We’ll see pics of him at burning man, smoking hot babe on each arm, Jack Daniels in hand. Or chilling on a South Cali beach somewhere.
Time to intervene. By Ontario standards, he’s having too much fun…..
i built myself a market for what I lost. Pound for pound. An inch for an inch. You buy it back. Whatever you give. In prices or in soul, it is given by you and then taken back, however you want to do it, through whatever intermediary you choose.
For me, I lost. So I figured a market for what what was taken, was worth, and I sold it. Lots of buyers. Man, you really know what the nature of humanity is, when you sell soul. They pile up. Eager and urgent. Like it is some sort of a big deal. Like you are selling something dead that is somehow still alive.
I built a market.
We function on market economies. They will tell you different. Like we function on politics and countries and we sell to whom we feel is popular and well liked.
I would say, that is bunk. They will take from you, what you let them, for nationalistic reasons. And they will do that because you let them and because they will prey on your fears.
But in the end, there is the market, that you built, with your soul, and you put into it, what you expected to get back, plus a little because you are greedy.
If it were not for the vagrancies of weaponry and world politics, you would be satisfied in the way that is natural.
Looks like the general consensus of BCers here is that Horgan and the BC NDP have delivered budget measures the people want. Now they just have to clean up the sketchy mess the BC Liberals left across the province with regards to money laundering and ICBC. The party of Christy Clark deserves four years in the wilderness.
@ Why Care? on 03.02.18 at 5:25 pm
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if your economy cannot attract outside capital, then you all must come up with the shortfall yourselves.
have fun!