Capitulation

Has this blog capitulated? Stopped snarling? Rolled over for a tummy rub?

That was the allegation yesterday in the wake of the tax-tax BC budget and the silly expectations fostered by the Dippers there that they’d crash real estate values so every moister could have a home. On one side, the politicians are out to punish non-residents who buy or own real estate (as in Ontario), thinking that will lessen demand, while they promise to pump $6 billion into the market  – increasing demand. Suck. Blow.

Being prickish, this blog said:

Real estate values will inevitably moderate as the cost of money rises and household debt goes from critical to moronic. But nobody should expect 40% declines in YVR or the GTA, especially in the urban areas always in demand. Even at that level, most people would find it unattainable without committing 100% of their net worth to a single asset. Unwise.

This may need more ‘splaining – because in no way has the view altered that housing is entering a grind that will push valuations lower over a prolonged period of time. Every market is unique, so some will be impacted more than others, even as sales struggle everywhere. Places like Fredericton, Lloydminster, London or even Montreal will fare better, since price-income ratios were not blown to extremes. Slaughtered could be swaths of the 905 or the LM – Richmond Hill, Vaughan, Ajax, Burnaby, Abby or PoCo – where prices swelled as the stupid money sloshed out of Toronto or Vancouver.

As far the urban cores of those cities, as mentioned, there’s no 40% drop on the horizon, given the paucity of listings, building constraints and the fact the largest demographic in society (Boomers just passed the torch to the Mills) think work needs to be within an easy bicycle ride of home. This is the most downtown gen in Canadian history, now creating its own frenzied market, driving up condo prices 24% a year even while detached values crumble by 9%.

Besides, we now know government attempts to protect moisters from themselves have failed. Mortgage amortizations were hacked from 40 years to 25. Down payment thresholds were raised. CMHC premiums were jacked. Insured buyers were stress tested. And, after the mills ran to the Bank of Mom to avoid it, that test was applied to everyone. Meanwhile mortgage rates have snaked higher with the Bank of Canada pulling the trigger three times in the last few months.

And still they buy.

So addled with real estate horniness is this cohort that any noticeable, Tweetable drop in house prices will likely result in swarming. If the kids would just go on strike for a couple of years, house appraisals would fall faster than a Conservative’s pants, but alas, won’t happen. This forms the core of why demand hoods of Van and TO will remain that way – and why anyone who can’t play should either stop bitching, or move.

As for the outlying exurbs, or places which never deserved to inflated (Niagara, Langley), the story’s completely different. Risk abounds. The next couple of years will really shock people who were in feeling safe in their Huggies the last time mortgage rates went north of 6%.

On Wednesday US central bankers said things are awesome. Corporate profits are up double-digits. Donald Trump actually did something about guns. Bond yields are fat. And now everyone expects interest rates to go up two or three times more in 2018. Again next year.

The shift continues from that low-rate, low-growth, cheap-money world that wildly inflated house prices and family debt, into something far different. Nothing affects real estate more than the cost of money, since almost everyone uses extreme leverage to get it. For eight years rates fell or sat in the ditch, and house prices inflated insanely. Now we’re on the path to normalized rates and property values will respond the same way. Worse, after that orgy of buying Canadians carry record loads of mortgage debt, plus $220 billion in home lines of credit, and most of that borrowing will be refinanced this year. Ouch.

So the direction of real estate overall is down. Obviously. All that kneejerk, tax-crazed politicians like those in BC and Ontario will do is acerbate the decline. However in pockets where the moisters like to gather to drink Chai, eat kale and look at their phones, the bets are off. They can’t help it. Terminal house lust. They’re doomed.

Capitulation blog?

Not even close. But about that tummy rub…

316 comments ↓

#1 Ian on 02.21.18 at 5:05 pm

Something very crazy happened around 2pm in the markets today.

10 year US yields suddenly exploded to 2.95%, and the stock market had a sell off.

But for some reason the USD went on a monster short squeeze, rocketing upwards. Really crazy stuff.

#2 Stan Brooks on 02.21.18 at 5:07 pm

Real estate values will inevitably moderate as the cost of money rises and household debt goes from critical to moronic. But nobody should expect 40% declines in YVR or the GTA, especially in the urban areas always in demand. Even at that level, most people would find it unattainable without committing 100% of their net worth to a single asset. Unwise.

————————————–

Really? And why is that?
Because somebody/who said so?
I expect 70 % decline in real values/measured in non-manipulated bread prices for example.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_property_bubble

House prices in Dublin, the largest city, were at one point down 56% from their peak and apartment prices down over 62%

Keep in mind, Irish property bubble run was much shorter and much lower in terms of absolute top compared to average prices than the Canadian one.

Considering automation, in 10 years the whole of GTA will be a wasteland.

Vancouver will be large uninhibited.

The percentage of real estate and related financial services to GDP is much higher in Canada than it was in Ireland.

We don’t have pretty much anything else left in term of economy.

So we shall see, we shell see.

#3 TheDood on 02.21.18 at 5:09 pm

“So addled with real estate horniness is this cohort that any noticeable, Tweetable drop in house prices will likely result in swarming. If the kids would just go on strike for a couple of years, house appraisals would fall faster than a Conservative’s pants, but alas, won’t happen.”
_________________________________________
I like your confidence that it won’t happen Garth, but my gut tells me it jjjuuuuussstttt might. All it takes is one moister to figure out that huge debt is bad, send out a few tweets, and the herd mentality will take over. Wouldn’t that be wonderful – every prospective buyer in Canada went on “strike” and refused to buy property for the next 2 or 3 years – can you imagine the fallout from that scenario?

#4 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 02.21.18 at 5:09 pm

Domestic Demand is driving the price of housing. Where the hell is the demand coming from?? Canadian were not breeding a lot. could it be coming from immigration???

Trudeau is thumbing his nose at Canadians spending a bundle of tax payer money on a vacation to India with his entire family. He has learned to spend as much as he wants on his trips without being out of bounds. Typical Politician.

#5 Andre on 02.21.18 at 5:09 pm

ok. I still don’t understand how the top 5% – 1% of this demographic cohort can sustain a average house price south of the 1M$ in a high real interest rates environment. Vancouver top 5% income earners cannot support this prices, can they?

#6 Howard on 02.21.18 at 5:10 pm

I think the frustration is reaching a boiling point. The feeling that those of us who did the seemingly responsible thing by not overextending ourselves are rewarded by the realization that we will never get ahead on account of our being too responsible. Saying one needs to leave the main economic centres just to be able to live is painful. It may well be correct advice, but it stings. Even for someone like me who left Canada (Toronto) a few years ago but had hoped to return. Seeing a dimwitted acquaintance on Facebook sell his glass box d/t for half a million a few days ago – and of course brag about it – is demoralizing.

#7 DON on 02.21.18 at 5:10 pm

suburbs of victoria

#3 DON on 02.21.18 at 5:09 pm

Why are so many people so snippy lately?

Big debt loads? Realization settling in?

In the last two months in Victoria, one young couple I knew sold to get out of stressful debt (marriage affected) and the other is currently selling to get some money out of it…I don’t think they plan on buying up – both don’t have secured jobs. Last year they were telling me to buy another house for investment.

#8 Asadullah Malik on 02.21.18 at 5:10 pm

Prices in GTA will fall a bit more, may be another 5% to 9% in next 2 years, but then basic demand – supply rules will again start jacking up prices. So, I agree with Garth that house prices will not fall by 40% in 2018-19; but the next wave from 2020 will push prices to new unforeseen levels.

#9 For those about to flop... on 02.21.18 at 5:10 pm

Recent Sale Report/ Realtor Assistance Needed.

This is a house that I reported on once before that was languishing on the market despite being one of the more affordable options in Vancouver proper.

I actually suggested it as an option when everyone seemed to think moving to south of the Fraser River was the best option.

It had been slowly renovated in a tasteful manner and finally found a new owner 27 days ago.

They did not appear to be in rush to sell, but in the madness of Spring 2016 could have gotten something approaching 1.6m

How much did they settle for…

M43BC

Asking
2017-05-24 : $1,399,000
2017-06-28 : $1,379,000
2017-12-04 : $1,298,000

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/4961-somerville-street

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#10 Andre on 02.21.18 at 5:11 pm

*Correction

*North not South
an not a

#11 nutbar on 02.21.18 at 5:13 pm

Considering automation, in 10 years the whole of GTA will be a wasteland.

Vancouver will be large uninhibited.

……

we are talking bent noodle here. Stan be grateful you have a place to exhaust your thoughts …what would you do without this place? scary,..eh?

#12 Anne on 02.21.18 at 5:14 pm

I hope that Matt from yesterday’s blog writes more posts on his own blog. I really enjoyed it. It’s a reality for many young people with good jobs and educations.

Born and raised in the GTA, educated and worked in Toronto, and now at 24 I’m saying no way, and moved to St. Catharines to work remotely.

Love this little gem in the Niagara Greenbelt, and I’m really glad I don’t have to tear my hair out on the Gardiner every morning.

#13 Keith in Rio on 02.21.18 at 5:15 pm

“However in pockets where the moisters like to gather to drink Chai, eat kale, and look at their phones”

————————————–

You forgot to mention the greatest offender……..$9 slices of avocado toast !!!

#14 Welcome to Slurrey on 02.21.18 at 5:21 pm

Seems like the tune has changed on this post , a 40% decline would take us back to a time where your blog was saying there would be a correction in yvr ………. ie: houses in white rock were selling for 800 000 – a time when you said housing would decline and correct – lol i guess your changing your initial predictions – sucks for those that thought you were correct back then

Yeah, sure, my fault. – Garth

#15 Game Over on 02.21.18 at 5:21 pm

“And still they buy.”

Sigh.. Idiots. I could use a tummy rub. My Basset enjoys them!

#16 Bag it and Tag it on 02.21.18 at 5:25 pm

Hey Garth, they are not maintaining the program of interest free downpayment loans:
“The NDP dismantled the Liberal-created B.C. Home Owner interest-free mortgage program for first-time buyers, using that money to create a new “Housing Hub” agency that will work with non-profit groups, churches and the private sector to find land for housing projects.”
http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/live-b-c-budget-has-big-investments-and-big-tax-hikes

#17 Tears in Heaven on 02.21.18 at 5:26 pm

#306 Reddy on 02.21.18 at 3:24 pm
Rip Billy Graham.
**********
Yes, a sad day indeed, but The Lord works in mysterious ways.

On the bright side, here’s a possible new listing up for grabs. Get in before the agent vultures descend, and see if she’ll throw in the golf clubs.

#18 Ponnaps on 02.21.18 at 5:30 pm

10% falls are already happening across the GTA… 40% is not unlikely.. always check the listing histories…

#19 Stan Brooks on 02.21.18 at 5:30 pm

#8 Asadullah Malik on 02.21.18 at 5:10 pm
Prices in GTA will fall a bit more, may be another 5% to 9% in next 2 years, but then basic demand – supply rules will again start jacking up prices. So, I agree with Garth that house prices will not fall by 40% in 2018-19; but the next wave from 2020 will push prices to new unforeseen levels.

————————————-

You have to enlighten me here:

Basic demand by who and from where?
You can justify any prices with such ‘arguments’.

Where is that demand going to come from as we are at peak debt, with no savings and real salaries deteriorate while cost of living skyrockets?

#20 YVR Comment on 02.21.18 at 5:37 pm

It is very simple in BC.

BC Liberals & federal conservatives giveth (cheap money, 40-year mortgages, sell/market for developers) and BC NDP & Federal Liberals Taketh (higher interest rates, B20 and tax, tax and more tax). It is all good Garth, eventually it will all balance out. I hope you don’t an empty house which is worth over $ 3 Mil in YVR or you will be paying through your nose.

#21 chopstix on 02.21.18 at 5:46 pm

funniest pic ever…my ex GF had a blue heeler that used to sleep just like that dog in the pic….toooo funny.

#22 conan on 02.21.18 at 5:46 pm

Patrick Brown should hire a video team to record every element of his hair brained leadership run.

Zoo meet circus.

I guess Fideli did not offer Brown some sort of out. PB had to run, he is cornered like a cat in a corner.

Bad move by Fideli, his only one.

Who is likely to be the leader of the Ontario Cons now that he is back in?

#23 When Will They Raise Rates? on 02.21.18 at 5:49 pm

#8 Asadullah Malik on 02.21.18 at 5:10 pm
Prices in GTA will fall a bit more, may be another 5% to 9% in next 2 years, but then basic demand – supply rules will again start jacking up prices. So, I agree with Garth that house prices will not fall by 40% in 2018-19; but the next wave from 2020 will push prices to new unforeseen levels.

—————-

Not unless the fed reverses course and does QE4 + ZIRP. Otherwise, please explain where the liquidity will come from to push valuations higher in a rising rate, contracting credit environment?

Prices will continue to fall as rates rise, period end of story.

#24 re: Welcome to Slurrey on 02.21.18 at 5:51 pm

The quality of housing stock in White Rock has increased during the time Garth made the prediction. I do agree that by waiting for the “crash” that we have lost out on some housing gains and now that there is no crash on the horizon I find myself ready to capitulate.

The market has truly stayed irrational longer than I anticipated.

#25 Eyestrain on 02.21.18 at 5:53 pm

#2 Stan Brooks on 02.21.18 at 5:07 pm
Real estate values will inevitably moderate ..
————————————–
I expect 70 % decline in real values/measured in non-manipulated bread prices for example.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_property_bubble
House prices in Dublin, the largest city, were at one point down 56% from their peak and apartment prices down over 62%…

[ I blame the Irish too, for creating Kevin O’Leary. Where are you from Stan?]

Vancouver will be large uninhibited.

[They’re already having orgies right on the beach!]

So we shall see, we shell see.

[ I sell seashells, down by the seashore. Not a huge money maker, but there are benefits]

#26 HowDeepThePain? on 02.21.18 at 5:53 pm

The wildcard is the new builds that are in the process of being complete around the GTA 905/705 area codes. That could force a lot of sales.

The largest cluster of for sale signs seems to be in relatively new sections, not the 15+ year old areas.

Is there any data available new builds to be completed in the next 2 years?

#27 When Will They Raise Rates? on 02.21.18 at 5:53 pm

… Which is not outside of the realm of possibility. (QE4 + ZIRP)

But even in this scenario, it would cause a currency crisis and all bets would be off:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1gPoHe_YPdY

^ It’s a doozy, highly reccomend watching to the end.

#28 For those about to flop... on 02.21.18 at 5:58 pm

Pink Snow falling in Burnaby.

Speaking of capitulation,these guys are folding quicker than I do when Mrs Flop walks in with a fresh tub of ice-cream.

I only featured them less than two weeks ago when they took 600k off the original asking price.

They just took it off and put it back on all shiny and new with another 100k off or 27% off the original outrageous ask.

These guys could already be in the hole after landscaping and painting the exterior at minimum.

They want the potential buyers to focus on the view ,but it appears that most people have observed it is far too close to the Northcliffe…

M43BC

428 Northcliffe Crescent, Burnaby paid 1.82 July 2017 ass 1.76 Now asking 1.89

Jan 8:$2,598,000
Feb 8: $1,998,000
Change: – 600000.00 -23%

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/428-northcliffe-crescent

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzVkxDSA==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#29 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 5:59 pm

Divorce, drugs, drinking: Billy Graham’s children and their absent father
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2018/02/21/divorce-drugs-drinking-billy-grahams-children-and-their-absent-father/?utm_term=.36e504c3ada4

God I love WaPo sometimes. Great newspaper. Right up there with the New York Times and Toronto Star.

Speaking of God… you boomers know God’s not real right? Don’t even get me started on Santa Claus!

1/……5?

Many Blessings

#30 jim on 02.21.18 at 6:07 pm

#5

“ok. I still don’t understand how the top 5% – 1% of this demographic cohort can sustain a average house price south of the 1M$…”

They can’t.

Let’s compare Silicon Valley, where families earning $400k report themselves as middle class:

http://www.businessinsider.com/what-income-makes-you-middle-class-in-silicon-valley-2018-2

Median home price in San Jose (cheaper part of the South Bay) is $1 million.

You’d need family income of $333k and a downpayment of $200k to land a house there. Two people working in the tech industry could afford that, but they wouldn’t have much left over after taxes, child care, etc.

So people are leaving Silicon Valley because they can’t afford the living costs, but that area has FAR better incomes for professionals than Vancouver.

How many families in Vancouver have similar income levels? I took a look but was unable to find a proper income distribution, or even an average and variance/standard-deviation. I did find one dataset from the city of vancouver which stated that 15% of families have income >= 150k CAD.

I’d be surprised if more than 2% cracked the $300k mark.

#31 Smartalox on 02.21.18 at 6:08 pm

@ Cherry Blossom #4:

Domestic demand in Canadian Real Estate is being driven by existing homeowners pulling equity out to finance the purchases of more real estate. Whether it’s a pied a terre in another city, a country house or an investment property to flip or to rent, it’s all well and good while there’s equity to spare, and low rates keep the payments manageable.

Domestic demand was what kept the US market afloat up until the crash: first, cheap rates after the dot com bust made home ownership affordable, for those that could afford it. Then, mortgage-backed securities made home ownership an industryan creating unrealistic demand, furling year over year price growth.

At this point, people leveraged their (paper) ‘gains’ to buy vacation properties in Florida, Arizona, Nevada, only to lose those properties when the markets crashed. Some US relatives bought a huge house in a development community 40 minutes outside Atlanta, in 2004, then watched it fall 60% after 2007, hanging on (miserably) until they could get their money out a decade later, only selling in 2017.

At one point, a job loss forced the main breadwinner to commute two hours each way, every day to a new job two states away, just to have a paycheque to keep making payments on the house. It was madness!

That’s what I expect to see in Canadian Real Estate markets, now that rates are going up, and demand is cratering.

#32 And what will happen with... on 02.21.18 at 6:09 pm

… The segment of the market of houses that currently go for 2 million dollars or more? That segment should come down much harder, as it also increased much faster during the bubble. In that segment, we should easily see price drops in the order of 40% or more. Agreed?

#33 Lee on 02.21.18 at 6:11 pm

Your troubles are all Garth’s doing.

#34 Judah on 02.21.18 at 6:13 pm

#8 Asadullah Malik
“Prices in GTA will fall a bit more, may be another 5% to 9% in next 2 years, but then basic demand – supply rules will again start jacking up prices. So, I agree with Garth that house prices will not fall by 40% in 2018-19; but the next wave from 2020 will push prices to new unforeseen levels.”

What “demand-supply”, you Moron. There are more listings today then ever before and that will continue. There are area’s like Richmond Hill and Unionville where prices have already declined by 15% to 30%.

#35 MF on 02.21.18 at 6:17 pm

#4 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 02.21.18 at 5:09 pm

“Trudeau is thumbing his nose at Canadians spending a bundle of tax payer money on a vacation to India with his entire family. He has learned to spend as much as he wants on his trips without being out of bounds. Typical Politician.”

-I definitely no fan of Trudeau, but any attempt to get closer to India I welcome. The country will one day also be an economic powerhouse like China..without the paranoid any western communism.

Indian people and culture is awesome too. Source: tons of Indian friends.

MF

#36 common sense on 02.21.18 at 6:18 pm

Prickish? Never..it’s your blog and you can say and control what you write plus monitor the guests…

2018 is going to be a year to remember on so many levels and 2019 for the history books if QE4 does not take place…

I am so ready for the long awaited show to begin!

Raise those rates and oh yeah, that BOOMING USA e -CON-omy that is so strong, so stable (cough cough) will be a spectacle to watch blow from my front row seat on the border.

#37 Penny Henny on 02.21.18 at 6:18 pm

Maybe I am missing something Garth but that is one sick picture.
Sick in the old fashion sense as ‘not well’.

The dog is acting. Duh. – Garth

#38 Wallflower on 02.21.18 at 6:19 pm

#26 HowDeepThePain? on 02.21.18 at 5:53 pm
Agree.
The depth of specuvestor is not understood. Around here, I anticipate some builder bankruptcies. Buyers walking…

#39 Avalanche on 02.21.18 at 6:20 pm

Once it starts, there will be no stopping it. We sold at $2M in May 2016 in North Vancouver. Nicer homes in the area are selling for $1.75M. That would imply our house is probably down $300 to $400K already.

I don’t think it would take much to get it to $1.2M once foreigners start selling out at the top of the mountain. That’s where the avalanche always starts.

Sleep with one eye open.

#40 CanadianOne on 02.21.18 at 6:23 pm

And if you try too hard to “curb the enthusiasm” the cry babies are already warning what could transpire if the debtors are asked to merely start paying PRINCIPAL as opposed to interest only loans….

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-20/rba-warns-on-interest-only-loans-and-financial-stability/9464536

And as for the Canadian (and I am going to guess a wild proportion of G20/developed economies) pensions flowing to mortgages…. interesting read though…

https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-pensions-cant-buy-mortgages-fast-enough/

God Speed the Crash!

#41 Morneau or less on 02.21.18 at 6:25 pm

Hey Blog Dawgs,

Could you please give Mr. Turner a break. He is simply acting in good faith regarding his tempered support for the current government’s economic concerns.

I can advise you that he has been approached by my office to tone down the rhetoric regarding the housing market.

We are very aware of the change of direction in the real estate market and the last thing we need is this blog turning a soft landing into something more severe.

The “geniuses” here have all touched on the probability of a severe correction and we will not have The Greater Fool blog support that assertion via written comfirmation.

There will undoubtedly be a rather difficult “correction” but it would be best played out over a few years for everyone’s sake.

Garth, I will remind you of our agreement.

#42 LivinLarge on 02.21.18 at 6:25 pm

“This is the most downtown gen in Canadian history, now creating its own frenzied market, driving up condo prices 24% a year even while detached values crumble by 9%.”…that’s one of the things that had amazed me for 20 years or more.

The green, granola, vegetarian (vegan is just a vegetarian fetish) recycle everything, live off the grid, go solar, negative heel sandals, warm and fuzzy set that came out of the 70s and 80s actually WANT to live downtown breathing air you can taste amid crowded streets and traffic. Just to have access to the social life and entertainment they don’t then have the cash flow to pay for? This is some disconnect to say the least.

The generations that worship “connected everywhere” still want to be at the heart of urban jungle.

On any given day except maybe Sunday, I can take the train to Union from Kitchener in less time than it takes to drive it on the best day and with gas and parking added in I can still get a fist full of TTC tokens for a day’s worth of entertainment.

#43 Mission Accomplished on 02.21.18 at 6:26 pm

BC’s government laid out its budget today and has put the kibosh on RE speculation across the most important RE markets in BC.

Fools will believe that the game will continue and prices will go up as guaranteed just as it will continue to rain for months on end on BC’s coast.

No, no, no.. the time to sell houses worth a couple million has passed. Even “investors” with boat loads of cash from illicit gains or loans against ghost collateral will be careful and avoiding BC. The tax screws are only beginning to hurt a bit now. Going forward the tax laws will be more and more painful to operators of business in BC. Specifically hurtful for RE investment “clubs” and VC to start RE projects.

Government funded building projects are going to compete with private builders, developers and so on. Government is not going to overpay for the land. The profit margins and mark-ups have to be transparent and will therefore be negligible.
Building projects will be RFP only and go bid by tender. The trades can chose to find work in the private realm or compete in the public arena.

Will be interesting to see how government can accomplish to build 33,700 units at a price tag of $184,000 average (total commit $6.2 billion).

Perhaps now the people of BC can focus on businesses that are not related to the RE sector and not driven by a “get rich quick” scheme.

BC has great potential but the RE frenzy has to end so that residents can shift their focus on new projects.

#44 MF on 02.21.18 at 6:27 pm

#12 Anne on 02.21.18 at 5:14 pm

Yeah. And lots of people with good educations and jobs would prefer to stay in the New York of Canada (Toronto)..like me.

IH: yes the hustle and bustle is worth it. The city is booming.

#1 Ian on 02.21.18 at 5:05 pm
“Something very crazy happened around 2pm in the markets today.”

-Yeah. Reality happened. The DOW should be like 16k realistically.

MF

#45 Penny Henny on 02.21.18 at 6:31 pm

I’m still watching the far west end of Toronto W08 (almost Mississauga). Prices are holding pretty good. Personally I would take Feb, Mar and Apr 2017 right out of the equation when doing YoY comparisons, those were stupid crazy months.
I am surprised that it is holding up so well though.
From last July I would guesstimate that prices for sold homes are only down 5-7%. Some places are getting good bucks though, some equal to last July.
That being said there is much inventory that is just sitting.

#46 Milton Gabrielle on 02.21.18 at 6:31 pm

Did the market turn over today? Up 300 pts and now down like 200 therabouts. Time to move to a 50/50 portfolio (Like Kevin O’Leary) from a 60/40?

#47 unbalanced on 02.21.18 at 6:32 pm

Mortgage amortization were hacked from 40 to 25 years. And what was the name of the party in power who allowed 40 years? Ya get what you deserve

Low rates have been far more consequential. – Garth

#48 Houses are a million, roses are blue, Poloz Peso, deflation too! on 02.21.18 at 6:32 pm

Is that dog dead?

#49 Spirit in the Sky on 02.21.18 at 6:33 pm

#29 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 5:59 pm

Divorce, drugs, drinking: Billy Graham’s children and their absent father
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2018/02/21/divorce-drugs-drinking-billy-grahams-children-and-their-absent-father/?utm_term=.36e504c3ada4

God I love WaPo sometimes. Great newspaper. Right up there with the New York Times and Toronto Star.

Speaking of God… you boomers know God’s not real right? Don’t even get me started on Santa Claus!

1/……5?

Many Blessings


Lordy lordy we gotta a troll… baby jesus will set you free.

Prepare yourself you know it’s a must
Gotta have a friend in Jesus
So you know that when you die
He’s gonna recommend you
To the spirit in the sky
Gonna recommend you
To the spirit in the sky
That’s where you’re gonna go when you die
When you die and they lay you to rest
You’re gonna go to the place that’s the best
Never been a sinner I never sinned
I got a friend in Jesus
So you know that when I die
He’s gonna set me up with
The spirit in the sky
Oh set me up with the spirit in the sky
That’s where I’m gonna go when I die
When I die and they lay me to rest
I’m gonna go to the place that’s the best
Go to the place that’s the best

#50 NiceBeach on 02.21.18 at 6:36 pm

for #8
The delusion that some people live in is unimaginable, what do you think the price in 2020 will go for? 2 mill for 1-bed condo? that’s what I call dreamulation. Oh, actually it might make sense when a can of cock is $10, so will anybody make any money in this case? LOL

#51 ole Doberman on 02.21.18 at 6:36 pm

What about Calgary Gartho you havent mentioned anything about it lately. Still hangin tough here

#52 oncebittwiceshy on 02.21.18 at 6:39 pm

#24 re: Welcome to Slurrey on 02.21.18 at 5:51 pm
The quality of housing stock in White Rock has increased during the time Garth made the prediction. I do agree that by waiting for the “crash” that we have lost out on some housing gains and now that there is no crash on the horizon I find myself ready to capitulate.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

There have only been house gains for those people that have actually sold …. and not upgraded or purchased investment real estate.

Everything … everything else is simply "bragging rights".

The housing market is facing a "perfect storm" of headwinds that should make any reasonable person take a step back.

If you bought 10 yrs ago, you could be safe. If you became a "REIN" land baron you are in for a world of hurt.

Good luck to all.

#53 Newcomer on 02.21.18 at 6:40 pm

It will be interesting to see what happens once prices head south. Those same house-horny moisters may change their minds about buying pretty quick, even in walking distance of yoga studios.

In Japan, you sometimes quite literally cannot give real estate away, even though it’s always cheaper to buy than to rent (as it is in any normal world). Young folks, and not so young folks, say real estate is inherently dangerous. It’s for fools. That works out well for the few of my friends who buy properties to rent them out, but everyone tells them they are stupid.

In short, stampeding herds have been known to change direction.

#54 Wrk.dover on 02.21.18 at 6:41 pm

I just heard of T-rumps latest trend setting NRA sanctioned super plan.

Has anyone here got a list of 1st, 2nd or 3rd world counties where school teachers actually carry a piece? You know, pack heat? I can’t even bring myself to print his idea in plain English….to ask this stupid question.

#55 Penny Henny on 02.21.18 at 6:43 pm

As for the outlying exurbs, or places which never deserved to inflated (Niagara, Langley), the story’s completely different. Risk abounds.-GT
///////////

Garth I think that might be a very fair statement for anyone buying today in the Niagara region, especially new build. But if you got in to the market 2016 then you are golden.

2015/early 2016 I saw new builds 1800 sq ft offered for under 300k. Now asking closer to 500k

#56 Penny Henny on 02.21.18 at 6:45 pm

#37 Penny Henny on 02.21.18 at 6:18 pm
Maybe I am missing something Garth but that is one sick picture.
Sick in the old fashion sense as ‘not well’.

The dog is acting. Duh. – Garth
///////////

I didn’t know dogs had the capacity to act. I thought they could only follow commands.

#57 Damifino on 02.21.18 at 6:45 pm

The dog is fine. He’s a professional.

Don’t try this with your own dog.

#58 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 6:47 pm

#47 unbalanced on 02.21.18 at 6:32 pm
Mortgage amortization were hacked from 40 to 25 years. And what was the name of the party in power who allowed 40 years? Ya get what you deserve

Low rates have been far more consequential. – Garth

———–

Garth can’t even say it lol. His precious beloved Conservatives led by the Evil Robot from Alberta started this whole mess. Trudeau is at least putting in policies to slow the housing bubble down. I don’t know how anyone can dislike Horgan’s NDP policies. No they’re not going to solve the entire problem, but they are a start. Christy Clark belongs in jail.

Here’s a great read.

Special investigation: How high-risk mortgages crept north
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/special-investigation-how-high-risk-mortgages-crept-north/article1067885/

Government policies matter. Regulations matter. That’s why Conservatives leave economic devastation in their wake.

Did you read this part of that Globe article?

“Garth Turner, the former financial journalist turned politician who has bounced between the Conservative and Liberal parties, urged the finance committee to hold a day of hearings on the new U.S. insurers. He was a Conservative MP at the time, but was wary of his party’s proposal.

“We had a fairly stable market at a time when the American market was already starting to go to hell,” Mr. Turner said in an interview. “I was quite concerned that mucking around with our mortgage fundamentals would have the potential for chaos.”

I gave you more leash on this blog than you deserved, and still you troll, disrupt and distort. Your time here is over. Do not even try to crawl back. – Garth

#59 Penny Henny on 02.21.18 at 6:50 pm

#2 Stan Brooks on 02.21.18 at 5:07 pm
Real estate values will inevitably moderate as the cost of money rises and household debt goes from critical to moronic. But nobody should expect 40% declines in YVR or the GTA, especially in the urban areas always in demand. Even at that level, most people would find it unattainable without committing 100% of their net worth to a single asset. Unwise.

————————————–

Really? And why is that?
Because somebody/who said so?
I expect 70 % decline in real values/measured in non-manipulated bread prices for example.
——————–

Stan who gives a flying F what you think.
Here, I got you a can of STFU!

#60 Judah on 02.21.18 at 6:52 pm

#32 And what will happen with… on 02.21.18 at 6:09 pm
… The segment of the market of houses that currently go for 2 million dollars or more? That segment should come down much harder, as it also increased much faster during the bubble. In that segment, we should easily see price drops in the order of 40% or more. Agreed?

Absolutely Agree.

#61 John on 02.21.18 at 6:55 pm

Making almost daily predictions can be tough, and I understand the incentive to capitulate when a trend has persisted for so long, even if it makes no financial sense.

Like any other asset, the value of real estate is not a price but a ratio of price to cash flow. In this case that cash flow is income. The inner city Toronto neighborhoods you believe to me more immune to correction provide undoubtedly higher incomes, yet also have higher prices so the valuation in terms of this ratio are not much different.

With the demand for properties in Toronto at all time highs, every person who can afford to buy a house/condo has. What is left is those who can’t. As financing costs rise, those who have bought but can barely afford their payments get squeezed out. Prices fall until those who have not bought are able to afford the lower priced property at the higher rate of financing. If they stretch themselves they can do so, until rates once again catch up. As this unfolds, multiple rate hikes start to affect those who weren’t completely stretched when they purchased. They too risk being squeezed out. Credits deteriorate, and lenders tighten up.

Nothing makes inner Toronto immune to this cycle, unless you believe that the income profile of the city has changed and will continue to change enough to catch up with the price rises, thus bringing the valuation ratio back to normal levels. I do not see any sign of this happening.

#62 The real Kip on 02.21.18 at 6:57 pm

What? So there won’t be a 95% correction? I can’t believe it.

#63 Tom Vu on 02.21.18 at 6:58 pm

You Deserve to Be Broke.

Get with the program.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKDYKPjh0iw

#64 Penny Henny on 02.21.18 at 6:59 pm

#19 Stan Brooks on 02.21.18 at 5:30 pm
#8 Asadullah Malik on 02.21.18 at 5:10 pm
Prices in GTA will fall a bit more, may be another 5% to 9% in next 2 years, but then basic demand – supply rules will again start jacking up prices. So, I agree with Garth that house prices will not fall by 40% in 2018-19; but the next wave from 2020 will push prices to new unforeseen levels.

————————————-

You have to enlighten me here:

Basic demand by who and from where?
You can justify any prices with such ‘arguments’.

Where is that demand going to come from as we are at peak debt, with no savings and real salaries deteriorate while cost of living skyrockets?
//////////////////

Feet on the ground Stan.
What do you know you are in Bumfart Bulgaria

#65 Caleb Landry on 02.21.18 at 7:03 pm

Friend buys teardown house in Dunbar in 2010 for $700k, puts $300k in to renovating, is terrified in won’t sell in 2011 because the market is soft but lists for $1.4 and it gets sold. Six years later, same house would have sold for $4.5m. With new rules, I can see it easily tracking all the way back to $2 – $2.5m. The house was fairly priced as a tear down in 2010. If it say idle and we didn’t have the wave of Chinese buying, that house should sell today for $1m under reasonable and normal conditions – still a tear down. $300/sq ft build costs – 3000 sq ft, that’s a total of $1.9m… So – fair value is likely in the $2-2.5m range for a new home on the west side of Vancouver. It sure isn’t $4.5m which is what the market would have taken last year… So to go from $4.5 to $2.5 that’s a 50% drawdown. And, it’s coming… Might take a couple years, but it’s on the horizon.

#66 For those about to flop... on 02.21.18 at 7:03 pm

#56 Penny Henny on 02.21.18 at 6:50 pm

Stan who gives a flying F what you think.
Here, I got you a can of STFU!

///////////////

Stan, take the can of STFU.

NiceBeach at post number 50 is offering cans of cock for $10.

Sounds painful…

M43BC

#67 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 7:06 pm

GONE

#68 Zapstrap on 02.21.18 at 7:06 pm

Don’t have much time today for the comment section as out here in “Paradise” today the sidewalks need … wait for it … shoveling. SNOW, I can see my ICBC rates rising in my small mind. How much carnage on the roads tonight in the LM?

#69 tccontrarian on 02.21.18 at 7:07 pm

“As far the urban cores of those cities, as mentioned, there’s no 40% drop on the horizon, given the paucity of listings, building constraints and the fact the largest demographic in society … think work needs to be within an easy bicycle ride of home. “- GT
=========================================

OK, so we’ll have to abandon the centuries-old ratio of income to home-affordability (~1:3).
And we’ll have to ignore history (ie. what actually occured in other places during their corrective period as in the US). Namely, cities with the biggest bubbles suffered the biggest declines.
It’s reasonable to expect something similar in our situation in Canada: Vancouver and Toronto should suffer the biggest % declines.

Unless…it’s different here. – TCC

#70 Indian on 02.21.18 at 7:07 pm

http://m.photos.timesofindia.com/news/india/trudeau-rolls-chapatis-at-the-golden-temple/articleshow/63014406.cms

Your taxes at work. But, I have to say the Trudeau family is seriously photogenic.

#71 AK on 02.21.18 at 7:11 pm

“Slaughtered could be swaths of the 905 or the LM – Richmond Hill, Vaughan, Ajax”
——————————————————————–
Markham has already taken a 20% hit, since the highs of February of 2017.

#72 tccontrarian on 02.21.18 at 7:11 pm

#61 John on 02.21.18 at 6:55 pm

— Intelligent comment. Thanks

TCC

#73 AGuyInVancouver on 02.21.18 at 7:12 pm

43 Mission Accomplished on 02.21.18 at 6:26 pm
BC’s government laid out its budget today and has put the kibosh on RE speculation across the most important RE markets in BC…
—-
Not likely. BC Budget 2018 shows revenue from these taxes projected to bring in increasing amounts, so the NDP is merely admitting the fact that nothing will stop the capital flow (without the Feds acting) so they might as well profit from it.

#74 JakeR on 02.21.18 at 7:17 pm

“most of that borrowing will be refinanced this year.”

I guess I don’t understand. Why would such a large segment of the population refinance within a single year? Aren’t mortgage terms usually five years long?

#75 Vanecdotal on 02.21.18 at 7:21 pm

#24 re: Welcome to Slurrey

Agree, this has been one irrational decade-long market supported by govn’t/intervention/lack of intervention at every turn, but strong downside headwinds are blowing. I follow this particular market closely, there are a number of ‘luxury’ >$1.5 million ‘new’ build sfd in White Rock sitting empty, listed, don’t sell, yanked, relisted next year, rinse repeat. Some of these also show up on cl as rentals lately. Builders have been buying up former starter homes, raize, raise, flip for the $$$ luxury market last @ 5 years, there’s a lot of this type of product piling up. WR builders going b*lls as we speak to get product to market. Significant downside risk in this market segment seems plausible.

I suspect the luxury sfd market in metro Van/ Fraser Valley could see big declines (>50%) peak to trough. Poorly located condo/townhome/rowhome/sfd, overbuilt/more coming to market, suburban tract areas under power lines, lacking walkable amenities, etc. may also experience substantial decline imho. I believe areas with years of heavy high-end speculation in particular, WR falls into this category, may suffer the largest declines.

Recommend to anyone considering buying, first search craigslist rentals in your preferred hood to get a sense of how leveraged builders/owners may be, you’ll find many of the same houses hoping to get a warm body in there, often home is also listed/re-listed for sale recently, (cross check zolo/cl). Token rental incentives in the town home segment in particular, are appearing in S. Surrey more often lately. Watch for the coalmine canaries, ymmv, glta.

#76 Zapp Brannigan on 02.21.18 at 7:25 pm

This is a good example for SCM of socialism and the power of the state vs the individual.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/canada/parents-surrender-canadian-passports-in-norway-so-son-can-come-home-1.3812578

#77 Grey Dog on 02.21.18 at 7:27 pm

RealEstate in Unionville died exactly a year ago. A real estate agent well known to this area states nothing can be sold over 1.4M$. Hence while Donna’s house sold in my hood for 2.3M$ Garth wrote about her windfall on his blog possibly 13?months ago. Similar 2 Homes were up for sale for 1.7M May 2017 to January 2018…crickets…both taken off market now…possibly waiting for spring 2018? I know for a fact one is an estate sale. HAM have left, who will buy something around 2M$ in the GTA?

#78 dr. talc on 02.21.18 at 7:28 pm

The ‘demand’ for quality is always there, but it’s been dampened by the bankers’ withdrawal of credit. HST revenue has obviously fallen off a cliff: Home Depots are empty, every month is ‘truck month’ at your GM dealer, so I expect a cancellation of Jeremy Rudin’s fraudulent stress test. The government will not tell you that HST revenue has fallen off a cliff, but logic and critical thinking will

#79 jess on 02.21.18 at 7:30 pm

Speaking of God
…. ten year olds send to the battle field with a key(to paradise) around their neck …

watch frontline
political rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia has plunged the Middle East into sectarian war.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/bitter-rivals-iran-and-saudi-arabia/

===
The Rise of Virtual Citizenship

e.g. mortgage its resident visas to foreign property buyers

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/02/virtual-citizenship-for-sale/553733/

#80 Bytor the Snow Dog on 02.21.18 at 7:37 pm

@Screwed Canadian Doofus:

Nah nah nah nah
Nah nah nah nah
Hey-ey-ey
Goodbye!

#81 dakkie on 02.21.18 at 7:42 pm

Canada’s Real Estate Sales Plunge! BIGGEST DROP SINCE 1989! Toronto and Vancouver Meltdown!

http://investmentwatchblog.com/canadas-real-estate-sales-plunge-biggest-drop-since-1989-toronto-and-vancouver-meltdown/

#82 Barnesy on 02.21.18 at 7:44 pm

Garth et. al (including self proclaimed commenting experts)

Wondering what your take on niche markets is, particularly Banff & Canmore, Alberta, & comparable high profile tourist towns elsewhere within 1 hour of a major international airport.

Seems like there is a large demand from both Canadian *and* international crowds, but granted the market in these places is tiny, tiny.

Is it reasonable to think these markets might behave like their US counterparts of places like Vale & Telluride, Aspen, etc.?

Please predict the future for me (or best possible approximation).

#83 PupPatrol on 02.21.18 at 7:44 pm

Garth
You’ve given what, 10 YEARS of solid financial insights and opinions. I’ve always done my own personal digging to see if that jives with our family, consulted our financial advisor, etc. It’s laughable that anyone would EVER point their finger at you. They should be pointing it at themselves.
Thanks for always keepin it real, I am always learning from you, you’re allowed to have your own opinion! That’s what makes this blog interesting to read.

#84 acdel on 02.21.18 at 7:47 pm

#58 Screwed Canadian Millenial

lol, sulk, or appreciate the lesson that Garth just taught you. Cest la vie grasshopper!

#85 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 7:49 pm

GONE

#86 Waiverless on 02.21.18 at 7:50 pm

Today at the leg “carolejames reiterates goal of NDP budget housing measures is to lower price of homes and adjust market. Says when asked about owners being underwater on mortgage that owners in current market need to think about market changes while purchasing or selling.”

The NDP are frankly saying now they’re trying to correct/crash the RE market. Vancouver might hold value but the burbs are going to get slammed. How can there FOMO if the government is out to say – get out or suffer. Less than a day notice on the FB tax expansion and upgrade. Who knows what intervention they’ll bring in next. This market is pooched – that 0.5% spec tax this year is grace for them to get outta dodge before the hammer truly falls…

#87 Calgary on 02.21.18 at 7:55 pm

#51 ole Doberman on 02.21.18 at 6:36 pm
What about Calgary Gartho you havent mentioned anything about it lately. Still hangin tough here

I am also confused by how well Calgary prices have been holding up (based on MLS listing prices). Can market insiders illuminate us as to what is happening in Calgary?

#88 TheSecretCode on 02.21.18 at 7:57 pm

Motivated Kelowna SFD seller:

Why? Spec Tax. And that a Calgary SFD is the best buying opportunity since US SFDs in 2011.

So, the house in Kelowna is a rental. Almost impossible to get full year, year over year tenant on it.

Now, 0.5% of the value (720k as advised today – not the 790k that I could have gotten last year) applied to the annually? And 2% starting in 8 months?
So 3,600 in additional tax this year and $14,200 annually starting next year? Are you kidding me?????

Unless I am wrong on this new rule, a Tsunami of listings are coming to the BC market…all at the same time as people figure this out.

And if true, you thought people were net negative or barely positive before….this is lights out…any feedback on if I am wrong much appreciated.

Nothing motivates more than when big money is on the line…and as if Calgary was not attractive already…no spec tax…or any taxes there.

#89 KLNR on 02.21.18 at 7:58 pm

@#79 jess on 02.21.18 at 7:30 pm
Speaking of God
…. ten year olds send to the battle field with a key(to paradise) around their neck …

watch frontline
political rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia has plunged the Middle East into sectarian war.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/bitter-rivals-iran-and-saudi-arabia/
__________________________________

religion – biggest con game in history

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.21.18 at 7:59 pm

@#67 Screwed Up Millenial
GONE

+++++

Well done my self absorbed whiner.
You have achieved an entirely new “designation”
Somewhere below “Deleted”
Somewhere below “Banned”
Lies……. “GONE”

Well done.
Hubris and the fall.

:)

#91 Grey Dog on 02.21.18 at 8:00 pm

Regarding #58 SCM,
REALLY really Garth, no more SCM. If that is your FINAL decision regarding this pup with no manners? You were more than generous and patient. Good riddance, I’ll drop into your sight more often now. SCM was sucking all of the oxygen out of your comments’ section.

#92 the ryguy on 02.21.18 at 8:02 pm

#31 Smartalox on 02.21.18 at 6:08 pm
———————————————–

Bingo. This guy gets it.

I know far too many people in my age range (mid 30’s) that have more than 1 property, yet can’t find 2 nickels to rub together. But they have new cars, multiple vacations, bike/quad/skidoo.

Have they gotten raises? Maybe, but it doesn’t explain meteoric rises in asset prices, and you all know it.

Financing & lines of credit is how. (Also a F*ck-Ton of foreign $$, in my ever so humble opinion) Keeping up with the joneses will slap arrogant Canadians beyond any force they’ve ever seen.

The ships already turned folks, writing is on the wall, prepare yourself accordingly.

#93 DON on 02.21.18 at 8:02 pm

#66 For those about to flop… on 02.21.18 at 7:03 pm

#56 Penny Henny on 02.21.18 at 6:50 pm

Stan who gives a flying F what you think.
Here, I got you a can of STFU!

///////////////

Stan, take the can of STFU.

NiceBeach at post number 50 is offering cans of cock for $10.

Sounds painful…

M43BC
@@@@@@@@
Now that was funny!

#94 Mark on 02.21.18 at 8:04 pm

“Wondering what your take on niche markets is, particularly Banff & Canmore, Alberta, & comparable high profile tourist towns elsewhere within 1 hour of a major international airport. “

I don’t know if prices will move a lot in those communities, but existing owners, if they bought on credit or are otherwise leveraged to FIRE, will probably be shaken out and replaced with a new set of owners.

People in the FIRE sector have been punching well above their weight for the past few decades in terms of their ability to consume including the consumption of recreational RE.

Some other sector of the economy needs to take over and be a ‘superstar’ sector. People in that sector, flush with rising stock (and/or options), will be the new superstars of the economy in terms of consumption.

In other words, those people who were able to buy on the strength of their previous or current participation in the FIRE sector, may very well have to give way to those up-and-comers with strong purchasing power due to their participation in, for example, the heavily under-loved, but soon to be meteoric precious metals mining sector.

#95 millmech on 02.21.18 at 8:06 pm

#46
Do not go 50/50 portfolio at all, times like these go and become a private mortgage lender, help a fellow Canadian out. Rates starting at 9% and going up to 17% depending on credit worthiness of applicant, lots of potential coming down the pipe!

Waiting for the next incremental rate increase by the bank of .15% before the next rate hike announcement by the Fed next month, you know in keeping up with market demand.

#96 I attack Con policies, Garth bans me Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 8:08 pm

GONE

#97 young & foolish on 02.21.18 at 8:09 pm

Granda’s Lesson: Pendulums swing, so learn to anticipate the trend.

He was buying downtown before Barbara Hall was mayor, based on downtown revitalisation momentum espied in large cities elsewhere. As this blog points out repeatedly, the pendulum has crested and is about to swing back … invest (or not) accordingly.

#98 acdel on 02.21.18 at 8:09 pm

#87 Calgary
#51 ole Doberman

That makes three of us. I too, am baffled on how well the prices have held up considering how battered this province has been through in the past few years, obviously most are seeing it as a blip!

#99 TheSecretCode on 02.21.18 at 8:09 pm

…And sure enough the listings did a nice jump up in Kelowna from yesterday…watch the listing counts on realtor. This will not drag out if it is going to happen. Eathquake has happened (appears to be 10.0 on ricter scale, but nobody has an idea of how big it is right now) and a Tsunami (in the form of listings) might be in progress…proof of the Tsunami will be listings spiking fast.

Here is a comparable to mine in Kelowna:

750K – decent house. Was scooped up quick when listed a week or so ago…why is it back on the market?

Financing fell through. Here is the proof saying it right in the new listing (Back on market. Offer collapsed due to financing):

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19060047/300-Upper-Canyon-Drive-N-Kelowna-British-Columbia-V1V3C7-Wilden

These are the types of buyers in the market I guess – house horny no idea about their finances. Truly scary. It was good while it lasted it.

Please someone approve one of these financial morons to buy my house.

Thank you.

#100 TheSecretCode on 02.21.18 at 8:15 pm

negative -16 Celsius in Kelowna today also does help…maybe we can blame everything on the weather.

#101 Frank Blood on 02.21.18 at 8:16 pm

Re: #70 Indian. Looks like cultural appropriation to me.

#102 ShawnG in TO on 02.21.18 at 8:17 pm

I’m with Stan Brooks on this.
– Canadians are pushed so close to the edge, so much as a grain of sand falling off will lead to an avalanche.
– Banks are protected, so it is much in their favour to foreclose early, and foreclose quick.
– There are many out there, more than ever, owning multiple real estate units, with negative cash flow. If they have any worries that values are not skyrocketing, they will dump their holdings so fast it will overwhelm what fomo still exists.
– rates where lower than ever. that’s finally over.

bubble bursting is all about emotions and not much about technicals. it will be unstoppable when it comes. we saw the greed back in march of ’17. housing terror is not far off.

50%+ fall in TO, 60%+ in Van.

#103 Economystical on 02.21.18 at 8:23 pm

Everyone wants to get rich, and quickly if possible. Unfortunately there are only a few ways to do it.

– Invent something the world will want when they see it, like a Blackberry.

– Copy something the world wants and out-market the original, like Apple did with the iPhone.

– Sue McDonald’s over a coffee you spilled in your own lap.

– Buy a BreX and then sell it before it crashes.

– Run a Ponzi scheme like Bitcoin.

– Work hard and save money (this one is no fun and also not quick).

– Buy something with leverage and hope it goes up in value.

For most people the last 2 are really the only options. So if you are tired of working for a living leverage is the answer. That is why real estate is so attractive to so many people. You can use huge leverage, way more than your stock broker would ever allow, and as long as everyone else is doing the same thing prices rise and hardly ever fall. Of course you can fail spectacularly and lose all your money too, that’s the way speculation works, but if you only need 5% down it’s just too tempting.

For example, lets say the central banks are able to achieve their magical target of 2% inflation (this is both an upper and a lower bound, they do not want zero inflation). That means houses should reliably double in price every 30 years or so. So if you put 5% down, that money magically becomes worth 50% of the house price in 30 years even if you pay no principle. The game is irresistible. All you have to do is service the debt, which is like paying rent +/- a bit. And if you go broke you only lose the 5%. And it’s tax free! Who wouldn’t?

Our financial system is based on debt and inflation. Without either, the system would vaporize. We don’t want hyper-inflation because well Venezuela. But we don’t want deflation either because well Great Depression. What we want is ever more borrowing every year to create managed inflation slightly below the prevailing interest rate.

This system is guaranteed to work as long as people keep borrowing. It’s ok if one or two people pay off their mortgage as long as the total amount of mortgages outstanding continue to rise, but if everybody paid them off it would be a total disaster! Only by continuing to add debt to the system can we ensure that 5% becomes 50% every 30 years.

Remember, the economystical objective is a free lunch for everyone, and nobody working in the kitchen. We have to work together on this folks. Believe, or your God will disappear into the mist, like so many have before.

Now, I have looked into the situation a little bit in Vancouver and Toronto. I have to admit not a lot of time as a world class Economystical like myself has a very busy schedule, what with so many banks and governments to advise. But my limited research indicates that in fact the residents of Vancouver and Toronto actually do not want prices to fall one iota. Far from it they hope for continued price increases. 5% to 50%. What they oppose is that what they perceive to be non-residents see what is happening and are “front-running” them, to use trader parlance. But “front-running” is a long standing practice in all markets, whether up or down, it is what speculators do. What do you think all those “high frequency trading” computers are doing? Automated “front-running”.

Anyway, my point is that the residents of Vancouver and Toronto, or indeed any where real estate can be expected to go up in value, do not want the bubble to collapse or correct. They only want exclusive access to it. If house prices were to significantly correct in Vancouver, let us say by 50%, the affordability would come at the expense of many local residents being completely wiped out probably for life. In that situation sure housing would be a lot more affordable, but who would then have the credit to buy? So this scenario will be avoided at all costs.

So there will be no collapse in Vancouver or Toronto. We have well educated Economystics on the case. All we are doing is persuading the voters that they will now have a shot at participating in the very bubble they hope will continue, but this time with them on board. This is called an “exit strategy”, where we create the environment for the speculators to sell. After all, they need someone to sell to.

#104 re., Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 8:24 pm

this poor guy is on suicide watch

deep breadth kid. It’s all between the ears

#105 S.Bby on 02.21.18 at 8:31 pm

My elderly next door neighbour passed away at home yesterday. Husband gone years earlier. They lived there for 40 years. I’m glad her kids got to say their goodbyes before she passed. Rest In Peace Grace. We will miss you. Sometimes it takes something like this to ground us again.

#106 Danny on 02.21.18 at 8:31 pm

Garth please “Donald Trump actually did something about guns. ”

You really disappointed me. Big time.

Trump is a National Rifle Association……creep. Why did you not mention how much $ Trump received from the NRA?
Actually you are usually good at numbers….why not mention how much $ the NRA gives to politicians?

These amounts of $ should not be allowed in any democracy to be given in any election!

Trump is a heartless thug.

All he wants to do is sell more guns for teachers to start killing.

This is pathetic.

You are a better person when you stick to money investment and real estate.

He did something. Everything starts somewhere. My statement was accurate so untwist your shorts. – Garth

#107 Nonplused on 02.21.18 at 8:32 pm

#101 Frank Blood

Cultural appropriation isn’t a thing. It’s more word salad. When somebody immigrates here from India and speaks English better than I do I don’t call it cultural appropriation, I call it good for them. What’s next? Is transgenderism “sexual appropriation”?

Words are theoretical constructs used to try and describe the physical world. But if you just mix them up any old way you don’t necessarily arrive at anything but madness.

#108 akashic record on 02.21.18 at 8:32 pm

102 ShawnG in TO

50%+ fall in TO, 60%+ in Van.

Is that your entry point?

#109 Guru on 02.21.18 at 8:34 pm

Inside sources advised that a number of large Chinese/middle eastern investor groups that scooped up millions in properties in Markham, Richmond hill, Oakville, Milton, condos downtown etc. Over the past few years have started/prepared to unwind their investments in feb and march…. this will spike supply and set new price floors when they decide to cash out in the coming months.

#110 Colour-blind Slalom Racer on 02.21.18 at 8:34 pm

#96 I attack Con policies, Garth bans me Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 8:08 pm
GONE
***********
Garth, I read the G&M link that SuperCaliMisanthropic posted and I honestly have more respect for you now than ever. You were the only Con to sound the bugle when the carpetbaggers came acourtin’ ?? What is objectionable about that ? You acquiesced under duress from Harper’s Brownshirts, but so what? Maybe SCM thinks you could have said “Take this job and shove it”, but he has never had a real job. I am not asking for leniency here, but good for you if you show some mercy. Harper doesn’t even know what it means.

But, please kill Stan before he does himself in.

#111 I say I like Horgan NDP, Garth bans me Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 8:38 pm

GONE

#112 the Jaguar on 02.21.18 at 8:40 pm

#87 Calgary
“I am also confused by how well Calgary prices have been holding up (based on MLS listing prices). Can market insiders illuminate us as to what is happening in Calgary?”

The Conference Board of Canada ( November 2017) says Alberta will lead the nation in economic growth at a rate of 6.7%. Bloodied but unbowed. (Invictus). The ‘Oil Biz’ may be suffering these days, but the province continues to attract job seekers. The ones who left when oil sank were more or less transient. The same ones who come and go with every economic upturn or downturn, i.e. the roofers and construction people from B.C. who pine away for their cultural comforts like smoking pot, racing around on noisy dirt bikes, and the like. The New Brunswick boys who work on rigs drive their shiny Ford F150’s home to await the resurgence of the next oil boom. Hopefully they can continue to meet the payment schedule. These people are not ‘invested’ in Calgary or the province. Vacancy rates on rentals go up when they depart, but most were not homeowners. So for those that are, belts are tightened if need be and options reviewed and weighed. ‘Cut and run’ is simply not the mentality of Albertans. Prices have come down in some segments, but any thoughts of a ‘going out of business sale’ are premature. Just the Jag’s thoughts.

I did listen to an interesting podcast about the future of the ‘oil biz’ the other day. Hope it is o.k. to post the link, Garth. Here it is….. Art Berman, a smart oil and gas analyst. Interesting what he has to say….

http://traffic.libsyn.com/kunstlercast/KunstlerCast_299.mp3

#113 Smoking Man on 02.21.18 at 8:41 pm

#96 I attack Con policies, Garth bans me Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 8:08 pm
GONE
…..

Paid professional rude troll. Good ridance.

#114 SimplyPut7 on 02.21.18 at 8:43 pm

#7 DON on 02.21.18 at 5:10 pm

That’s how it started in Toronto, the media ran a story about a family who made $700k on their home in Toronto and moved to Ottawa, and everyone who owned a home in Toronto and were close to retirement or were willing to leave realized they don’t need to live in the GTA.

http://nationalpost.com/news/toronto/has-a-little-bit-of-air-been-let-out-of-the-toronto-housing-bubble-ahead-of-meeting

Move outside of the GTA and detached homes are still in the 300s or lower, most people who own homes in Toronto could probably quit their job, pay off all their debt, top up their retirement/investment portfolios and take a job in their new city that covers their monthly expenses.

Once interest rates start to rise again, I think more people who can leave will favour more affordable towns outside of cities that are too expensive to live and work in.

Many people are still trying to leave except they are pricing their homes at March/April 2017 levels and the homes are just sitting on the market for months waiting for buyers.

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.21.18 at 8:45 pm

@#96 I am Millenial, Hear me roar!

“I’ll huff and I’ll puff and Blooooooow your house down…..”

Or

“I’m gonna hold my breath until you play with meeeee”

Boomers say…
“Buh Bye.”

:)

#116 You don't know what you got till it's GONE, Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 8:48 pm

GONE

#117 mathman on 02.21.18 at 8:48 pm

RE: 61 & 102

Great points – Garth I respectful disagree on your no 40% correction in the core of the GTA – people here are just as leveraged on a percentage basis as those in the burbs, yes high incomes but with proportionally high mortgage payments. The other difference in my observation is people have taken the equity out of their homes to buy cottages, ski chalets, classic cars .. the list goes on.

Every year as houses have appreciated the collective masses of over leveraged fools get their bacons saved and refinance – as I have said many times once the margin losses that ability to clear consumer debt and the tap into their home equity is shut off then we have a problem.

The other impact is how far the pendulum swings in the opposite direction once SHTF, people simply will not logically react and buy once things plummet, they will wait till the herd jumps back. Similar to Miami or many other places in the south USA which were absolute steals in 2008/2009 and folks didn’t dump back in till 3-4 years later at the earliest.

Do I think the core will be resilient, yes. Will we see a 40% + drop – yes and I’ll bet you two Lauriers ($10 bucks)

Math

#118 AK on 02.21.18 at 8:48 pm

#1 Ian on 02.21.18 at 5:05 pm
“Something very crazy happened around 2pm in the markets today.
10 year US yields suddenly exploded to 2.95%, and the stock market had a sell off.
But for some reason the USD went on a monster short squeeze, rocketing upwards. Really crazy stuff.
—————————————————————–
A whole 2.95% for the 10 year ?

And the U.S. Dollar, it has bottomed and will start heading higher.

#119 Finally! on 02.21.18 at 8:49 pm

#85 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 7:49 pm

GONE

————

https://youtu.be/3GwjfUFyY6M

#120 akashic record on 02.21.18 at 8:50 pm

#96 I attack Con policies, Garth bans me Canadian Millenial

GONE

===

A dog hater born.

#121 AK on 02.21.18 at 8:52 pm

#106 Danny on 02.21.18 at 8:31 pm
“Trump is a heartless thug.”
——————————————————————-
How many mass shooting under Obama? And did Obama do anything ?

#122 acdel on 02.21.18 at 8:52 pm

#105 S.Bby

Nice post! All the best to the family, it is nice you cared enough to post about Grace, there is hope after-all!

#123 Canadian Moose on 02.21.18 at 8:54 pm

Simply stated, SCM forgot to read the rules at the end of dog commentary “Helpful Reminders from your forum host Garth Turner” Should have been banned s long time ago Garth. Needlessly wasting your time and the blog dogs time.

Good riddance SCM. Go and find another country that will accept your whining diatribe.

That’s the last I will ever comment on SCM.

Thoughts from the Hinterland. Cheers!

#124 gfd on 02.21.18 at 8:55 pm

Waiters, waitresses, bartenders beware! CRA cops are coming to claim taxes on your gratuities. Ontario gave you $3 bucks increase, feds now think they can spend it better than you can.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/02/21/cra-auditing-income-from-tips-canada-revenue-agency_a_23367772/?utm_campaign=canada_newsletter

Not paying tax on tips (earned income) has always been evasion, and illegal. – Garth

#125 Alberta subject to new BC RE Taxes on 02.21.18 at 9:01 pm

Carole James, presser today:

“If you are from outside the province and leave your home vacant you will be taxed. If you want to ensure you don’t pay the tax you put your house on the rental market and encourage people to rent it” for at least 1-full year minimum term.

What about vacation rentals that have heavy use?

Taxed!

#126 Reality is stark on 02.21.18 at 9:03 pm

There is indeed a silver lining to the continued housing correction. One sector of our illustrious economy stands to prosper. They have been waiting patiently as the lambs are led to the slaughter.
The divorce lawyers are licking their chops. Feminists have no tolerance for failure in our modern society. As they are the modern day initiators of divorce you can expect a rapid increase in forced real estate sales and lower prices.

#127 gfd on 02.21.18 at 9:04 pm

If the market valuation is based on comparables, and every Mill lives in a condo, it may very well be that one distressed sale at low value sets the president for the entire building.

#128 Fiendish Thingy on 02.21.18 at 9:05 pm

Mission and Maple Ridge will be ground zero in BC- 50+% peak to trough, maybe worse for condos.

Garth- Trump has “done” nothing on guns but talk and hold a Faux “listening” session w/a cherry picked crowd of fawning supporters.

He has apparently asked his lackeys to draw up some proposals, which have yet to be enacted as regulations or passed as legislation. Until then, he has “done” nothing, and certainly hasn’t shown any leadership on this or any other issue.

I said everything starts somewhere. Let’s hope this is the place. – Garth

#129 Darryl on 02.21.18 at 9:06 pm

Happy SCM is gone day everyone !!!

#130 stage1dave on 02.21.18 at 9:08 pm

#103 Economystical;

Great post! Was waiting for some MMT, tho…

#131 Chipshot on 02.21.18 at 9:10 pm

37 Don, not surprised to hear those getting out while they can.

The west coast house prices will begin their 2 year meltdown like today’s snow in Victoria will tomorrow. 30 to 40% is possible with an ocean of household debt. The foreign buyers got the message and are leaving GVR. Look at the detached house sales, they’ve fallen off the cliff.

#132 Binder Dundat on 02.21.18 at 9:12 pm

#85 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 7:49 pm
GONE

For the love of god please don’t put your decision about whether or not to ban SCM to another popular vote.

You’re only encouraging him/her and he/she will obviously continue to ignore sensible limits. You have too many important demands on your time and effort to continue to virtually baby-sit this individual. Quite obviously needs a good kick in the ass and you’re the one to deliver it.

No vote. S/he’s roadkill. – Garth

#133 Dave on 02.21.18 at 9:12 pm

I sincerely hope SCM is gone for good this time – good riddance.

#134 bobsabore on 02.21.18 at 9:15 pm

#7 DON on 02.21.18 at 5:10 pm

suburbs of victoria ”

Victoria??? I spent a week there one afternoon!

#135 A J on 02.21.18 at 9:16 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/former-ontario-tory-leader-patrick-brown-discussed-375000-deal-with-future-pc-candidate/article38026035/

This killed me….

“Other documents The Globe has seen, including bank statements, show that Mr. Brown deposited $375,000 into his personal account at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce one month after the affidavit was signed, on July 11, 2016. Later that month, property records show he purchased a waterfront house on Lake Simcoe’s Shanty Bay for $2.3-million. He took out a mortgage of $1.72-million from Toronto-Dominion Bank, according to public mortgage documents.

When asked about that, Mr. Brown, who earned $180,886 a year as leader of the Official Opposition, responded in the e-mail: “Like many people in Ontario, I received help from my family purchasing my home.”

Even Patrick Brown cannot afford his house. This is a circus. LOL!

#136 For those about to flop... on 02.21.18 at 9:21 pm

You lost that trolling feelin’
Whoa, that trolling feelin’
You lost that trolling feelin’
Now it’s gone, gone, gone ….woh …woh….woh…

M43BC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uOnYY9Mw2Fg

#137 bobsabore on 02.21.18 at 9:23 pm

Why did the apple turn over? Because it saw the swiss roll
Why did the economy turn over? Because it saw the PM roll (chapatis)

https://photogallery.eisamay.indiatimes.com/news/india/trudeau-rolls-chapatis-at-the-golden-temple/articleshow/63014406.cms

I’m here all week!

#138 TurnerNation on 02.21.18 at 9:25 pm

an eschewed Canadian millennial.

#139 ImGonnaBeSick on 02.21.18 at 9:32 pm

I love how the troll thinks it’s his like for dippers that got him banned… Complete lack of self-awareness.

#140 45north on 02.21.18 at 9:40 pm

Real estate values will inevitably moderate as the cost of money rises and household debt goes from critical to moronic. But nobody should expect 40% declines in YVR or the GTA, especially in the urban areas always in demand. Even at that level, most people would find it unattainable without committing 100% of their net worth to a single asset. Unwise.

the statement

“real estate values will inevitably moderate”

does not capture my sense of unease

but Danielle DiMartino Booth does:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=vvt_-isaFN0

she worked nine years as a senior analyst for the US Fed and was an advisor to US Fed President Richard Fisher. In her words and in her tone, there is a sense of urgency. She advocates shrinking the balance sheet which means reversing QE. She points to Jerome Powell the current head of the Federal Reserve who took a $1 salary in order to convince Congress of the perils of the US defaulting on the debt. He says that the US Fed needs a strong exit strategy when and how the US Fed will shrink the balance sheet. She says that for the whole of 2017, the US Fed was in Def Con 1 – in other words it was injecting liquidity as if Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers were failing every day. She points out that Mario Draghi is the President of the European Central Bank and that he will be replaced in September this year. She mocks and ridicules the European Central Bank for buying and holding junk bonds. She asks the question: What has to happen to financial markets to allow reversal of QE? She points to the New York Fed moving its trading desk from NYC to Aurora Illinois next to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. In response to the flooding caused by Hurricane Sandy. She says it’s the over intrusiveness and magnitude of this financial engineering experiment that is beyond the mandate of the US Fed.

The shift continues from that low-rate, low-growth, cheap-money world that wildly inflated house prices and family debt, into something far different. Nothing affects real estate more than the cost of money, since almost everyone uses extreme leverage to get it.

My sense is something far different is going to happen by September. This year.

#141 gfd on 02.21.18 at 9:41 pm

The dog is in tonic immobility. Mills do the same……pause for speedy correction.

#142 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 02.21.18 at 9:44 pm

#87 Calgary on 02.21.18 at 7:55 pm

I am also confused by how well Calgary prices have been holding up (based on MLS listing prices). Can market insiders illuminate us as to what is happening in Calgary?

——————————————————————-

“In the third quarter of 2017, net migration into Alberta totaled 11,106, compared with a net inflow of 5,419 in the same quarter of 2016, which translates into an increase of 104.9%.”

http://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/NetMigration

—-

“Including births, Alberta’s overall population grew from 3,790,191 in 2011 to 4,236,376 in 2016, according to Statistics Canada.

That’s an increase of 11.8 per cent — by far the fastest population growth of any province.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-recent-immigrants-2016-census-data-1.4370779

#143 robert james on 02.21.18 at 9:45 pm

China seems to be cracking down on everything,, now it is Funeral Strippers of all things.. Bloody hilarious !! LOL http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-funeral-strippers-crack-down-rural-attract-mourners-death-a8220866.html

#144 Danny on 02.21.18 at 9:47 pm

“He did something. Everything starts somewhere. My statement was accurate so untwist your shorts. – Garth”

You are better than that.

Trump cut funding for background checks.

Trump made it easier for people with mental issues to buy guns.

And many more.

You know better as a veteran politician….to know that you should judge a politician like Trump…by what is DONE not what he says.

Talk is cheap.

This is not about my shorts……this is about a heart !

Your statement was just quoting a cheap statement from Trump and you know it!

Maybe you should untwist your shorts!

Real men don’t. – Garth

#145 april on 02.21.18 at 9:50 pm

#103 – There have and will always be home owners who get “wiped out” in a housing down turn. It’s not different this time. That’s life. Economists do not understand how the housing market works, besides they work for banks. As well as heeding what Garth has been saying for some time now, listen to Ross Kay at Howestreet.com

#146 Chico on 02.21.18 at 9:54 pm

I just love this GONE guy! Such deep insights and wisdom. Don’t ever stop sharing GONE, you’re the best.

#147 millmech on 02.21.18 at 9:54 pm

SCM-with your crown your King Nothing, its your anthem!

#148 YVR on 02.21.18 at 10:04 pm

We’ve been totally wrong on Vancouver real estate the last 10 years.

People are buying still for a reason. Record population growth.

#149 Dobermanduke on 02.21.18 at 10:08 pm

I voted for a short leash but said he was dead man walking.
He clearly proved himself a complete dick.

Adios

#150 and the budget will balance itself on 02.21.18 at 10:13 pm

Convicted attempted murderer invited to formal dinner with Trudeau in India

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jaspal-atwal-invite-dinner-sophie-1.4545881

eventually he got it right

“I do not think we should ever be glorifying mass-murderers,”

#151 Axehead on 02.21.18 at 10:14 pm

That’s one hell of a picture, Garth!

#152 genbizx on 02.21.18 at 10:17 pm

Laws that aren’t enforced….stats that don’t look like reality on the ground…2% this , 3% that…whatever. Lying everywhere…we’ve lost something in this country that no clever chit chat can explain away. We’re so smart, so advanced…but are things getting better? Even Patrick Brown needed mommy n daddy’s money to buy a house….what a complete mess we’ve made…no leaders no wisdom…

#153 Renter's Revenge! on 02.21.18 at 10:27 pm

#67 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 7:06 pm
GONE

At last! My life is complete.

#154 millmech on 02.21.18 at 10:27 pm

100 The Secret Code
It is not too bad, on Royal LePage there are only three pages of new listings for Kelowna and yes more places are being relisted due to financing falling through. Funny as I have been watching Vernon for a while and listings started to pile up about a month ago.

Houses in Chilliwack and Abbotsford that are around 500k-700k have seen to be having difficulties getting financing now. I have a [email protected] that keeps calling me about these solid deals that keep falling apart as I was mildly interested in a house in the valley. I am patient and will wait for up to five years as rates will be double digits then and I will buy a house for cash if the numbers work.
I am watching the gradual creeping up of rates every quarter of .40% on mortgages and Heloc rates are not far behind, some people are already getting their rates adjusted higher.

The wealth expansion starts in the city and works its way out to the suburbs and the contraction starts out in the suburbs and works its way back in to the city.

Once the sentiment that real estate can go down and a couple of anecdotal stories of people being financially crippled is realized that is when the stampede will start.

#155 Fake News Again on 02.21.18 at 10:30 pm

Absolutely nothing in change in YVR until the Govt does something about the money laundering. If you think its just casinos and fentanyl……I have a “Pottullo Bridge” to sell you……

#156 acdel on 02.21.18 at 10:32 pm

#119 Finally!

Kool & The Gang, how can anybody not dance to that??

Awesome, brings back memories, sorry Garth off topic but even Bandit would jive with his bionic hip to this! :)

#157 Bob on 02.21.18 at 10:35 pm

Screwed Canadian Millennial gone? Thank GOD! I guess HE does exist!
Agreed he’s on someone’s payroll to keep up the number of posts. His contributions have been exaggerated. Good bye.

#158 Dead Cat Bounce on 02.21.18 at 10:36 pm

#105 S.Bby on 02.21.18 at 8:31 pm

Condolences to you and Grace’s family, R.I.P.

M54BC

#159 Ronaldo on 02.21.18 at 10:36 pm

A going away song for SCM. Enjoy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZthGh758pYY

#160 Karma on 02.21.18 at 10:38 pm

#30 jim on 02.21.18 at 6:07 pm
“So people are leaving Silicon Valley because they can’t afford the living costs, but that area has FAR better incomes for professionals than Vancouver.

How many families in Vancouver have similar income levels? I took a look but was unable to find a proper income distribution, or even an average and variance/standard-deviation. I did find one dataset from the city of vancouver which stated that 15% of families have income >= 150k CAD.

I’d be surprised if more than 2% cracked the $300k mark.”

Hahahahaha… You’re being to optimistic, by a long shot:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/canada-1-per-cent-highest-paid-workers-compare/article36383159/

#161 Garth agreed with me it was Conservative policies, SCM on 02.21.18 at 10:40 pm

GONE

#162 Ustabe on 02.21.18 at 10:41 pm

With all the new mortgage rules I bet there is money to be made offering private mortgages.

And I have found the fund to help!

Gonna cash in all my O’Leary funds and invest…I’m all in…how about all of you all?

https://pressprogress.ca/rebel-media-asks-viewers-to-place-retirement-savings-into-newly-created-rebel-freedom-fund/

#163 Bytor the Snow Dog on 02.21.18 at 10:51 pm

107 Nonplused sez:

“Words are theoretical constructs used to try and describe the physical world. But if you just mix them up any old way you don’t necessarily arrive at anything but madness.”

Says xir!

126 Reality is Stark sez:

“The divorce lawyers are licking their chops. Feminists have no tolerance for failure in our modern society. As they are the modern day initiators of divorce you can expect a rapid increase in forced real estate sales and lower prices.”

Feminists have no tolerance with their husbands’ failures. The unattached ones blame their own failures on the most convenient man.

#164 Hamsterwheelie on 02.21.18 at 10:53 pm

As long as there are humans there will be speculation, conversation, predictions, fails and sheer dumb luck.
We fall tidily into the dumb luck category- just happened into a cheap market at a time we were ready to jump and banks were handing out mortgages on self declared income.
The only difference is we went all in – 4 houses. Reading this blog gave me night sweats and daytime jitters but we ended up riding a small wave up to a little peak.
Now we are battening down all hatches as fast as possible and counting on tenants to need cool places to live in the core. Fingers crossed!

#165 Rooster on 02.21.18 at 10:58 pm

Just waiting for the puck drop…..
Advert in this week’s Economist – Canada Post is looking for a new President/CEO. Core competency sought:

“Strategic brilliance with the ability to assess what the future holds.”

They need a fortune teller to tell them what everybody else already knows. If you need a reference Garth, I’m onside.

#166 the ryguy on 02.21.18 at 10:59 pm

I said everything starts somewhere. Let’s hope this is the place. – Garth

Hey hey, Garth might be finally coming around on President Trump, dilly dilly!!

For you dummies looking for any reason to call out the President…do me a favour, actually research the statistics on guns. For one thing, suicides account for almost half of “gun homicides”. If you really want a red pill, take a look at WHO does the vast majority of the other half of gun homicides. Be warned, you might not like the answer.

Oh and the FBI was warned and cleared Mr Cruz prior to his horrid rampage. The same entity that protected Hillary & tried to frame President Trump with this Russia nonsense, same entity that Trump, IG Horowitz & AG Sessions are in the midst of cleaning up.

But go forth you demented libs. Lets make sure you embolden Prime Minister socks so there is a bathroom for all 603 genders. Morons.

#167 morrey on 02.21.18 at 11:01 pm

He did something.
Man kills dog.
Everything starts somewhere.
As a chid he used to burn butterflies.
My statement was accurate so untwist your shorts. – Garth
My statement was accurate.

#168 waiting on the westcoast on 02.21.18 at 11:01 pm

She’s been gone gone gone… gone so long, she’s been gone gone gone gone gone…

https://youtu.be/P7zN4JD9Dng

We love you SCM. Enjoy your time out!

#169 Karma on 02.21.18 at 11:04 pm

“I gave you more leash on this blog than you deserved, and still you troll, disrupt and distort. Your time here is over. Do not even try to crawl back. – Garth”

SCM needs JBP badly.

#170 Karma on 02.21.18 at 11:18 pm

#74 JakeR on 02.21.18 at 7:17 pm
““most of that borrowing will be refinanced this year.”

I guess I don’t understand. Why would such a large segment of the population refinance within a single year? Aren’t mortgage terms usually five years long?”

—————————-
Because a lot are coming up at the 5 year mark, and a lot are coming up after 4 years, 3 years and 2 years. Bank of Canada has estimated that 47% of mortgages roll this year.
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/everyones-mortgage-is-about-to-get-more-expensive/

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/fsr-november2017.pdf

#171 brainadams on 02.21.18 at 11:19 pm

The greatest fool?
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/21/justin-trudeau-india-visit-theres-talk-prime-minister-snubbed-by-indian-government.html

#172 LivinLarge on 02.21.18 at 11:25 pm

“Not paying tax on tips (earned income) has always been evasion, and illegal. – Garth”…indeed it is and CRA have periodically targeted servers for unclaimed tips. I recall one targeting initiative in the early 90s and I am certain there have been at least two more pushes since then.

It’s a relatively easy audit for a bean counter to look at gross sales by server and compare the average % of credit card/debit tips in the entire restaurant over a year and then just issue a notional assessment.

#173 Paul on 02.21.18 at 11:36 pm

#144 Danny on 02.21.18 at 9:47 pm
“He did something. Everything starts somewhere. My statement was accurate so untwist your shorts. – Garth”

You are better than that.

Trump cut funding for background checks.

Trump made it easier for people with mental issues to buy guns.

And many more.

You know better as a veteran politician….to know that you should judge a politician like Trump…by what is DONE not what he says.

Talk is cheap.

This is not about my shorts……this is about a heart !

Your statement was just quoting a cheap statement from Trump and you know it!

Maybe you should untwist your shorts!

Real men don’t. – Garth
———————————————————————————————
Why do people worry so much about American laws and politics. You what to worry ?Worry about thousands dieing every day in other counties around the world.

#174 Dmitry on 02.21.18 at 11:36 pm

SCM is finally!!! GONE
SCM aka GONE now.
Enjoy this – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kG9pOZZv_xw

#175 Two-thirds on 02.21.18 at 11:37 pm

Speaking of capitulation, true story:

My brother just landed a big promotion. He now wants to buy a house, arguing that a very nice one is within 3.5-4 times his annual salary (and his wife works also) and besides, no rentals to be had in the right school district, apparently. Kid is in kindergarten, starting school in the fall, so he feels the need to act soon.

I have kept them on the renting path for the past 5 years or so, and I think they have done okay for themselves. Renting a very nice house and 2 nice, newer high-end cars that he claims are almost paid off. It seems they have no debt other than the cars and I tend to believe it.

But now they are getting house horny (or thrown the towel?) and I do not what to say. 3-4 times house price *on one salary* seems to be within historical affordability range, which I am afraid I cannot argue with. He also said they are looking at a 10-year mortgage fixed, at 3.94%, which seems to be too good to be true, but perhaps his credit rating is really that amazing (if he is not BSing on his new salary, his income is also amazing).

I spoke of the potential for a RE value decline and he countered saying that all of the listings he is looking at have been sitting for months and not selling or have been relisted since the fall (this is in Edmonton, AB). He thinks sellers are motivated and claims prices have come down already. I warned about the stress test and he laughed that one off: he can qualify easily at up to 8% interest rate he says.

So, I do not know if I should push further or not: he seems to be pretty decent with money and says he has a 15% down payment saved up and also that he intends to kill the mortgage in 10-15 years. Told me his bonuses and tax refunds will go straight into the mortgage and any extra cash flow from when car payments stop will also be redirected to mortgage payments. Sounds like a good strategy to me: he paid student loans within 2 years of graduation by using similar tricks and discipline, so I believe they are capable of actually pulling this off.

So, any advice I can give him to desist or at least take a plunge with less pain in the future? I know nothing about the Edmonton market, or mortgages myself, but perhaps someone knowledgeable in these areas would not mind sharing some wisdom?

Crazy to see someone I know well taking the plunge, even though he agrees with Garth’s stuff. I wonder if this is the capitulation moment for them?

#176 PastThePeak on 02.21.18 at 11:44 pm

#119 Finally! on 02.21.18 at 8:49 pm
#85 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 7:49 pm

GONE
================================

Amen

#177 Interesting times on 02.21.18 at 11:47 pm

Always amazed at the guts it takes to write a daily informative financial blog like this, especially one so well written. Complainers… Chill out.

Big fan of the new BC ndp policies. Too many people live here and don’t pay any taxes and the ndp wants them to contribute to the communities they enjoy.

Moved back to Vancouver for family reasons and it’s a bit shocking how everyone does what Garth suggests… they all leave. Guess better get used to driving two (or five) hours to kids birthday parties.

Maybe the ndp will help withering communities. I appreciate that they’re trying and that Garth is doing his best to write about it.

#178 PastThePeak on 02.21.18 at 11:49 pm

Garth, I read a couple days ago that the HELOC value is now at $230B. Poloz’s thinking that eventually the population will start to pay down their debts isn’t showing signs of taking off.

#179 USA wins Gold in diving on 02.21.18 at 11:58 pm

And it’s only the end of the 1st period.
USA 1-0

Both teams were tentative, but as Mark Lee commented, Canada was fortunate not to receive a 4th penalty in a row for out-muscling an opponent for the puck.

#180 Karma on 02.22.18 at 12:11 am

#85 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 7:49 pm

GONE

——————————————–

SCM, you don’t believe it, but your name gives it away, you need to stop feeling sorry for yourself and stop blaming others for your problems.

Rule #1: Stop Being Pathetic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uq3Fh2eQ9Ls

Rule #2: Take Care of Yourself
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0KSxcM70xY

Rule #3: Make Friends With People
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nf9wlIwkO7A

Rule #4: Compare Yourself to Who You Were Yesterday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cz2tYGt0_As

Rule $5: Don’t Let Your Children Do Anything That Makes You Dislike Them
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXLBBYxFXEk

Rule #6: Set Your House In Perfect Order
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awTgtA3BuRY

Rule #7: Pursue What Is Meaningful
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdTus1hB5Fw

Rule #8: Tell The Truth or At Least Don’t Lie
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n53HmC1zxVc

Most Applicable to you!!!
Rule #9: Assume People Might Know Something You Don’t
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wopkwSfbRlQ

Rule #10: Be Precise in Your Speech
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wopkwSfbRlQ

Rule #11: Don’t Bother Children When They Are Skateboarding
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzAikAv17ds

Rule #12: Pet A Cat When You Encounter One
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0f0dCGzZU-Y

It’s free, you won’t be enriching him as it’s not on his Youtube channel. I suggest you watch other Rubin Reports too.

You were warned a lot by Garth, yet you were stubborn. No one has sympathy for you or your plight. You need to change your mindset.

Good luck in your life.

#181 millmech on 02.22.18 at 12:12 am

Carol James is pretty good on taxing Albertans on their BC property and do not forget the pipeline possibly being stopped.
If the pipeline is stopped expect a lot of Bc based tradespeople to be sent packing. I know quite a few people still flying in and out making good money in the patch. Not as many as before but still enough that it would hurt.

#182 Newcomer on 02.22.18 at 12:17 am

#148 YVR on 02.21.18 at 10:04 pm
We’ve been totally wrong on Vancouver real estate the last 10 years.

People are buying still for a reason. Record population growth.
———
You are right, but not in the way that you probably think. In recent years, Metro Vancouver has seen record
LOW population growth. It’s quite literally never been lower. CoV is also historically low but not quite as low as in the late 70s and 80s.

Year Pop. ±%
1941 393,898 +13.3%
1951 562,462 +42.8%
1961 790,741 +40.6%
1971 1,028,334 +30.0%
1981 1,169,831 +13.8%
1991 1,602,590 +37.0%
1996 1,831,665 +14.3%
2001 1,986,965 +8.5%
2006 2,116,581 +6.5%
2011 2,313,328 +9.3%
2016 2,463,431 +6.5%

You should try Google. It’s so handy.

#183 Captain Cook on 02.22.18 at 12:24 am

#102 ShawnG in TO on 02.21.18 at 8:17 pm

bubble bursting is all about emotions and not much about technicals. it will be unstoppable when it comes. we saw the greed back in march of ’17. housing terror is not far off.

50%+ fall in TO, 60%+ in Van.

Emotions, no logic. It seems reasonable decline to me.
Why 40 % floor and not 35?

#184 ShawnG in TO on 02.22.18 at 12:30 am

> #108 akashic record on 02.21.18 at 8:32 pm
> Is that your entry point?
only if the mood is terrible. like the euphoria back in march, except it’s the opposite. gloom and doom. then it’s time to buy.
(or when Garth say to buy, that works better)

#185 For those about to flop... on 02.22.18 at 1:05 am

Recent Sale Report.

This Westside house just sold.

2115 w18th ave,Vancouver.

Asking 3.78

Just sold for 3.39

2017 Tax Assessment 4.49

And so even though it went well below ask ,I guess the big story with this one is it sold for 1.1 million or 24.5% below the recommended retail price…

M43BC

2017-12-12 : $3,788,000

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2115-w-18th-avenue

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#186 Bottoms_Up on 02.22.18 at 1:16 am

#19 Stan Brooks on 02.21.18 at 5:30 pm
—————
Demand comes from 6 million people in the GTA. Lots are first time buyers (demand for condos and towns). Lots are move up buyers with hundreds of thousands in equity, and therefore can buy the singles. Demand also comes from downsizing. Demand also comes from 150,000 immigrants every year. Demand comes from foreign investment.

#187 Man buns on 02.22.18 at 1:25 am

With all due respect Garth, anything that can go up 50% in 3 years can go down 50% in 3 years. I feel like you’re contradicting previous blog posts.

#188 fishman on 02.22.18 at 1:28 am

Jeez Screwed Millenium, now you did it. I know you were trying out for “Heel”. But when you give “Pretty Face” a shot in the kidneys, you gotta, you know, hold back a little. Can you imagine if Gene Kiniski didn’t hold back when he’d give Gentleman Jim a shot while the refs not looking? Kinda doubt it. Its like this.
Downtown Vancouver the jail’s next to the courthouse & an elevator ride is part of the journey. Now it used to transpire that if you didn’t “hold back” you had the “Vancouver elevator ride” in handcuffs with a couple big Bulls to the holding cell after sentencing. Don’t worry, they got a RN full time but you did piss blood for a week. By the way I’ll miss your cheekiness: too bad.

#189 Bobs ur uncle on 02.22.18 at 1:32 am

Tummy rub? I dunno – might have to settle for a chin scratch.

#190 Doug from Victoria on 02.22.18 at 1:42 am

I will miss SCM’s contrarian views that obviously have enough truth in them to get some really riled up!

#191 acdel on 02.22.18 at 1:46 am

#149 Dobermanduke

He is a she, this video is probably a good description of what I personally think this individual is all about, lol!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUi_S6YWjZw

#192 Floppy on 02.22.18 at 2:07 am

Somerville sale at 1.210.000

#193 Floppy on 02.22.18 at 2:11 am

Hoodstock Ave sale 1.6

#194 SoggyShorts on 02.22.18 at 2:15 am

#67 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 7:06 pm
GONE
************
I’ve never been one of those “Canada is the best!” types, but something about SCM calling Canada a shithole made me want to dress up in the flag and chug maple syrup while beating him with my seal club.

Good riddance.

#195 Bottoms_Up on 02.22.18 at 2:17 am

Our women played great. Lost the gold on a bad line change in the 3rd.

#196 Vancouver on 02.22.18 at 2:20 am

Just met a lady from Sao Paulo walking her sister’s dog in Yaletown. She said she has moved to Vancouver (just recently) from Brasil as living conditions in Sao Paulo were getting unbearable – crime, drugs, etc. She said you can’t even hold your cell phone while walking on the street as it may get snatched from your hand. Anyway, It got me thinking… how many more people from over the world wants to move to Canada? A lot! And that for sure will keep housing going. It may correct, but people who were waiting on the sidelines will jump in quickly (unless, the interest rates are really high). In my building, currently 4 condos for sale for approx. $1,250,000 for 1100 sf. Met a couple in the elevator who asked me, you think they will drop the price now? They are ready to jump in if they do… Ahh, here we go again

#197 Dolce Vita - Ditto Stan Brooks on 02.22.18 at 3:50 am

There has NEVER been a soft landing in Cdn. RE, never, ever.

Just look at history and at what year this chart stops:

https://i.imgur.com/uzinX0L.jpg

Take note the size of each bubble and the %’age drop, ALL ARE RELATIVE.

Starting to see more and more DOUBLE DIGIT drops in FLOP’s posts…yet most in YVR think that Merlin is still waving his FOMO, up up up, wand in Camelot.

Thus, I stand with Stan Brooks prediction and Flop’s too funny rebuttal to Penny Henny (the latter who should move to YVR to seek out and find the Holy Grail).

#198 Dolce Vita - Ditto Stan Brooks on 02.22.18 at 3:57 am

#148 YVR

Maybe back in the early 1990’s.

I’d say it’s slowing down and moving out to the Lower Mainland hinterlands and for good reason:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Vancouver

#199 Dolce Vita - on SCM on 02.22.18 at 3:59 am

Ah, cut the kid some slack.

Besides, who would we have to pick on if it were not for SCM (ya I know, the Realtors)?

#200 Manson Globalist on 02.22.18 at 4:04 am

RE Brock Smeaton Realtor W Van
“In West Vancouver, arguably the most expensive housing market in British Columbia and even across Canada, according to Mr. Smeaton, there were only 505 single-family sales in 2017, down from 817 in 2016. On busy years, it used to reach 1,000 sales.

The area’s homes, for which an estimated 80% to 90% of buyers are Chinese, have a starting price point of C$2 million (US$1.58 million) and an average price of over C$3 million, Mr. Smeaton said.

“The market has been extremely slow ever since July 2016, when the 15% foreign buyers’ tax was introduced,” he said, “So far this year, only 18 homes were sold in the area, the lowest level on record since the 1980s; adding 5% transfer tax for foreign buyers will make it worse.”
https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/89354-luxury-brokers-in-vancouver-wary-as-property-taxes-hiked

#201 NoName on 02.22.18 at 5:46 am

Something to think about.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/feb/21/boston-dynamics-teaching-robot-dog-fight-back-humans

#202 theoryAndPractice on 02.22.18 at 6:19 am

#61 John on 02.21.18 at 6:55 pm

Well explained!

———–
I’d like to add one more aspect ;

who are/were the buyers will make difference when/how /what level this is going to pop or if this is ever going to pop.

1- local buyers
2- foreign buyers
3- Cash purchases local/foreign (protected against rates increases)

Since there is no publicly verifiable data (i believe this is also on purpose) , my statement will be linked to conditions ;

Here are the assumptions ;

Class 2 is as declared very small % of buyers, it will have minimal impact (as it is indicated in this blog small % of buyers are in this category)

Class 1 is the biggest % of buyers, the behavior of this group that will have the most impact the direction most

For example Class1 – the locals – the median income is 75K-85K range see the links below in :

https://careers.workopolis.com/advice/how-much-canadians-are-earning-by-province/
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/famil108a-eng.htm

Gross monthly income per say 8Kx12=96K annual, this calculator gives the following mortgage amount;
http://www.scotiabank.com/mortgage/afford/en/index.html
441K give or take ..

So , with todays GTA or 416 prices , locals can only buy fraction of a house.. somewhere in between 1/2 and 1/5 of a-house by looking at today’s median prices…

If prices are not going to crash considerable amount >40% , Then the only reason holding would be 2/3 is * NOT * ‘a-small-group’ as it is told to public.The other possibility, there is large amount of undeclared income and/or money laundering is going on in Ontario and BC.

if everything is as it is told I don’t see any reason why it would * NOT * go down beyond 40% by just looking at median income vs house prices vs cost of money.

#203 Howard on 02.22.18 at 6:52 am

#203 Howard on 02.22.18 at 6:49 am

#182 Newcomer on 02.22.18 at 12:17 am

#148 YVR on 02.21.18 at 10:04 pm
We’ve been totally wrong on Vancouver real estate the last 10 years.

People are buying still for a reason. Record population growth.
———
You are right, but not in the way that you probably think. In recent years, Metro Vancouver has seen record
LOW population growth. It’s quite literally never been lower. CoV is also historically low but not quite as low as in the late 70s and 80s.

Year Pop. ±%
1941 393,898 +13.3%
1951 562,462 +42.8%
1961 790,741 +40.6%
1971 1,028,334 +30.0%
1981 1,169,831 +13.8%
1991 1,602,590 +37.0%
1996 1,831,665 +14.3%
2001 1,986,965 +8.5%
2006 2,116,581 +6.5%
2011 2,313,328 +9.3%
2016 2,463,431 +6.5%

You should try Google. It’s so handy.

——————————–

On

———————————

Accidental submission….

What I wanted to say : On a percentage increase basis, yes Vancouver isn’t growing less quickly than earlier eras.

But the absolute increase is significant for a city hemmed in by the sea, the mountains, and the US border.

Vancouver could adopt Paris-level housing density and fix its crisis, but what politician in Canada has the will for something like that?

#204 Wrk.dover on 02.22.18 at 6:57 am

#175 Two-thirds on 02.21.18 at 11:37 pm

——————————————

Same job will last ten years in Edmonton at that pay level? In this new world order?

Sure Bro, to your Bro. Sarcastically.

#205 Howard on 02.22.18 at 6:58 am

#175 Two-thirds on 02.21.18 at 11:37 pm

Edmonton never had a housing bubble. Alberta’s economy is improving. Housing declines there will be minimal. Sounds like your brother knows what he’s doing.

#206 OttawaMike on 02.22.18 at 7:06 am

Screwed Canadian Millenial:
-Describes the Toronto Star as an excellent newspaper.

OK, he really crossed the line this time. Good riddance.

#207 Official's Result on 02.22.18 at 7:23 am

Canada loses to USA 3-2 in a shootout.
Typical.

In other news:
Trump suggests more leeches might help stem the bleeding in schools.
Head leeches, McConnell & Ryan said they will think on it a spell.

#208 Stan Brooks on 02.22.18 at 7:25 am

#186 Bottoms_Up on 02.22.18 at 1:16 am
#19 Stan Brooks on 02.21.18 at 5:30 pm
—————
Demand comes from 6 million people in the GTA. Lots are first time buyers (demand for condos and towns). Lots are move up buyers with hundreds of thousands in equity, and therefore can buy the singles. Demand also comes from downsizing. Demand also comes from 150,000 immigrants every year. Demand comes from foreign investment.

——————————

Absolutely. Demand from locals with 70 k before tax household income in GTA with a little push/some very wild imagination probably justifies 1/3 of current prices.

Immigrants can not raise demand meaningfully at least in GTA and Vancouver as these are lately only potential low paid minimum wage workers. Who can barely buy food to eat.

You of course know that with a few millions you can live as business investors pretty much everywhere.
So why here?

Demand from foreign investment is anecdotal. Again, plenty of much cheaper much more vibrant places as alternative choices – Italy, Spain, Germany, …

If the situation was manageable we wouldn’t need cheerleaders to claim that everything is just fine.
Things are not just fine but rather pretty serious.

#209 Victor V on 02.22.18 at 7:27 am

Global stocks fall after Fed points to higher rates

https://www.bnn.ca/global-stocks-fall-after-fed-points-to-higher-rates-1.1007276

LONDON – World stocks tumbled to one-week lows on Thursday after the U.S. Fed confirmed it was on track to raise interest rates several times this year, sending bond yields to new multi-year highs.

While U.S. 10-year yields retreated after nearing the psychologically key 3 per cent level, the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting at the end of January has at least temporarily taken the edge off investors’ appetite for equities and other assets perceived as risky, such as emerging markets and commodities.

With Fed policymakers agreeing that “a gradual upward trajectory of the federal funds rate would be appropriate,” the odds in the market of faster U.S. interest rate hikes have narrowed and a host of Fed fund futures have hit contract lows.

#210 unbalanced on 02.22.18 at 7:44 am

I give the waiter or waitress a tip in cash. It is a gift. Do they have to claim gifts

There are no gifts in a workplace where you are buying goods and services. All tips are taxable as earned income. – Garth

#211 Wynne Wins ! on 02.22.18 at 7:49 am

The head official at Elections Ontario, Jeanne Dixon, has confirmed today that the incumbent, Kathleen Wynne has already won the election scheduled in June.

Ms Dixon declined further comment, and reportedly has accepted a new position as CEO of Canada Post.

#212 maxx on 02.22.18 at 8:08 am

#30 jim on 02.21.18 at 6:07 pm

“…………..Median home price in San Jose (cheaper part of the South Bay) is $1 million……”

Side-note: Were I in a position to choose where to work in tech, I’d never consider a soggy, D3-deficient, drug-ridden dump like Vancouver. Jamais.

No comparison to San Jose. Sunshine, salary in USD, lower taxes and generally waaaay more fun.

#213 Brantford McMansion Realtor on 02.22.18 at 8:09 am

************AMAZING OPPORTUNITY*********

New to the market of this desirable, much sought after community!

This week over 2200 Brantford McMansions are coming to market, with SPECIAL FEATURES YOU CANNOT GET ANYWHERE ELSE!!!!!!

Each is now equipped with a spectacular INDOOR SWIMMING POOL!!!!!

In the winter, this doubles as an AWESOME INDOOR SKATING RINK!!!!!

That’s right, buyers! The basement levels of these homes are now just as impressive as those charity home lottery dream homes you’re always drooling over but can never win!!

Prices starting at $1,499,999 this week only. Prices will increase by $250,000 weekly if not sold out.

BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!!!!!!

Line-up at our office starts at 3:00 a.m. Saturday, February 24, SHARP!!! Bring your chequebook and your parents!

(rubber boots and snorkels recommended)

#214 kman on 02.22.18 at 8:15 am

Let’s not forget the fact that real-estate is most Boomer’s retirement plan. As they sell their SFHs, they are looking at moving into condo’s where you can lock the door and go south without the worry of cutting grass, maintenance,……..
This put’s pressure on the SFHs and pushes the price of condos higher. with all the condos in the pipeline, this will come to an equilibrium soon.
My 2 cents, BWDIK.

#215 Radio-Free Ireland on 02.22.18 at 8:22 am

A listener from Canada dedicates this one to Paddy, who’s in a spot of bother.

“Tied down with battleship chain
Fifty foot long with a two-ton anchor

Can’t use my lips to kiss nobody
Kiss nobody but you”

(Hindu Love Gods with W. Zevon, rip)

https://youtu.be/7WFPVnxaxXw

#216 Bad Cowboy on 02.22.18 at 8:25 am

Millmech…95…..great idea to make more money. I lent seconds and thirds for years in the last cycle and made out like a bandit. I charged an average of 14% on one year terms. I never renewed , there were too many new prospects. The time is coming to be a second tier lender again…..you’re on the right track. Choose your pigeons wisely. I only lent to people who had just reunited after scseperstion and had run up joint debt in the interim before realizing they couldn’t afford to live alone any longer. They must have been employed for s minimum of ten years, same company. As rates rise you’ll see demand pick up …..good luck.My best story was this…..a tax auditor who hot himself in trouble and needed a loan. He had to take an early morning paper route to make my pmts…..,I laughed every morning over my paper and coffee that my tax man had been running around since 3 am to make me happy. Sweet biz.

#217 Victor V on 02.22.18 at 8:35 am

Expect Toronto to follow suit if Vancouver’s ‘very aggressive’ speculation tax on property succeeds

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/expect-toronto-to-follow-suit-if-vancouvers-very-aggressive-speculation-tax-on-property-succeeds

#218 Rooster on 02.22.18 at 8:47 am

President Trump has confirmed he has appointed Jocelyn Lamoureaux as UN Ambassador. He said he is hopeful her trademark move ” Oops, I did it again” will help to quell tensions in the Middle-East.

The appointment is contingent on the usual security checks, and an unusual paternity test.

http://time.com/5170036/us-canada-womens-hockey-olympics-2018-2/

#219 Tater on 02.22.18 at 8:49 am

#30 jim on 02.21.18 at 6:07 pm
#5

How many families in Vancouver have similar income levels? I took a look but was unable to find a proper income distribution, or even an average and variance/standard-deviation. I did find one dataset from the city of vancouver which stated that 15% of families have income >= 150k CAD.

I’d be surprised if more than 2% cracked the $300k mark.

—————————————————————
Stats Can has this: http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/dv-vd/inc-rev/index-eng.cfm but it’s only individual income, not household. But it puts the top 1% at 245k in the Vancouver CMA.

#220 Radio-Free Ireland on 02.22.18 at 8:56 am

Daniel Day-Lewis announced that he is coming out of retirement to star in the sequel to “Silence of the Lambs”, which is tentatively titled “Shuddup youse”.

#221 Mary Shelley on 02.22.18 at 9:11 am

The Ontario PC Party thanks you for your cash contributions, but what we really need at this time are organ donations to see if we can cobble something together.

#222 Smoking Man on 02.22.18 at 9:13 am

#195 Bottoms_Up on 02.22.18 at 2:17 am
Our women played great. Lost the gold on a bad line change in the 3rd.
…….

T2 Karma is bitch. The Sports bet at Belagio ous me some loot.

#223 Chico on 02.22.18 at 9:23 am

#194 SoggyShorts on 02.22.18 at 2:15 am

#67 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 7:06 pm
GONE
************
I’ve never been one of those “Canada is the best!” types, but something about SCM calling Canada a shithole made me want to dress up in the flag and chug maple syrup while beating him with my seal club.

Good riddance.

———————————————————-

I agree. We have lots of problems, and will always have problems as a country. SCM and Stan Brooks made me think about our country in a new way, so in some ways I’m glad for the idiotic things they said.

Anyone can whine and yell that the sky is falling, or blame some random group, city, political party for their problems, or they can get busy and do something about solving the problems.

I’ll try to get my hands on a seal club so I can be prepared for the next SCM/Stan Brooks/”Winnipeg stole my youth” type of poster :)

#224 James on 02.22.18 at 9:28 am

#222 Smoking Man on 02.22.18 at 9:13 am

#195 Bottoms_Up on 02.22.18 at 2:17 am
Our women played great. Lost the gold on a bad line change in the 3rd.
…….

T2 Karma is bitch. The Sports bet at Belagio ous me some loot.
____________________________________________
What the [email protected] has T2 have to do with a loss at the woman’s hockey game in the Olympics? Is this what you do when you get up in the morning, just slam anything and always blame it on T2, Liberals, SJW…… Don’t get me wrong I don’t like T2, liberals, or for that matter any causes that are socialist based. They must be your automatic go to groups to blame for your previous evenings heavy drinking. Jesus smoking Man get some help.

#225 The Pot and the Kettle on 02.22.18 at 9:29 am

CBC Toronto asked Brown about Hillier’s complaint outside PC Headquarters on Tuesday evening. He responded by saying “that’s just Randy being Randy.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/patrick-brown-accused-of-dirty-politics-1.4543691

#226 Musty Basement Dweller on 02.22.18 at 9:31 am

As described in the attached link, the head of the real estate agent cartel in BC “can’t imagine” a government telling it’s people the truth about about their intentions. No additional comment necessary.
——
B.C. government says goal of budget taxes is a housing price drop: http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/government-says-goal-of-budget-taxes-is-a-housing-price-drop

#227 Mary Shelley on 02.22.18 at 9:34 am

#210 unbalanced on 02.22.18 at 7:44 am

I give the waiter or waitress a tip in cash. It is a gift. Do they have to claim gifts

There are no gifts in a workplace where you are buying goods and services. All tips are taxable as earned income. – Garth

************

Is the Ontario Legislature considered a “workplace” by Revenue Canada ? I just have a few souvenir sari’s,
but Patrick has some ‘splainin to do.

#228 GONE is the new Banned on 02.22.18 at 9:42 am

Relief. Thanks Garth. Really.

#229 Ian on 02.22.18 at 9:46 am

Folks, since we are all trying to figure out how much median GTA price will decline, I’ve put the following analysis together this morning.

Please go through it and give me your feedback, a group effort is always better than an individual’s!

http://www.torontohomes-for-sale.com/Toronto-average-real-estate-property-prices.html

Here we have an inflation-adjusted graph which shows Toronto prices since 1953, with a line of best fit included.

Real estate moves in long, multi-year waves. The market, like any other financial market, moves above and below the trend line.

Considering how much previous corrections have gone below trend, I’ll use the following figures since it’s hard to see precisely on the graph:

Top: 825
Below trend target: 375
Making a potential decline of 54.5%.

So that would be consistent with previous trends.

Now I’ll discuss why I feel this one should be much, much worse.

1) The last decline from 89-96 was a 33% drop and that was only after an (albeit aggressive) four year bull market from 85-89. We are currently at the end of a 21 YEAR BULL MARKET.

2) The absurdly cheap credit environment today is far different from what existed then.

3) OSFI B-20 is only just in place and as Garth has been saying, it will take time to really start to hurt, but I believe it’s happening already. Banks have clearly taken steps to tighten their lending in the last few months.

So a 54.5% decline just to get things started. Thoughts?

#230 PastThePeak on 02.22.18 at 9:50 am

Will there be a strong RE correction in the hot markets, or just some muddling along (slow market, perhaps small reductions in prices in some areas and gains in others)?

No one can claim to know for sure. You can’t use 2017/2018 as the guide though. Economically, things are better now (or recent now) than at any time since the last recession – record low unemployment rate, still very low interest rates, growing equity markets. There is almost *no* fear. There will be no big correction without fear.

But, despite these great economic numbers, we see lots of troubling data: record consumer debt-to-income & debt-to-GDP, large % not covering needs, raiding of HELOC and RRSP’s to make ends meet, many more within $200/month of difficulty, now with higher taxes. All WITHIN an economic expansion.

Economic expansions don’t last forever. They often come to an end due to growth finally firing inflation, which in turn brings higher rates (re: south of the border).

So what happens to those extremely over-leveraged, barely making ends meet folks when job losses start to mount? Many say prices won’t drop as people won’t sell. Well, if you can’t make your mortgage payments because you lost your job, or have to move to take a new job, you don’t have a choice. You have to sell, and perhaps take a price you don’t want to. Prices do come down.

People think the (rich) foreign money has influenced the market. I have no idea how much, but I would say that they are not doing it just ’cause everyone wants to get into Canada. They do it to make money. And when it looks like the market might turn, they take out their money and move it elsewhere. Prices go lower.

When home equity value starts to go down, those over leveraged are in deep sh*t. They have to adjust – sell one of those rental properties, below what they want, just to get back to a manageable level of debt.

Of course, this can have a negative feedback loop on the economy, causing a deeper/longer recession (see again, south of the border in 2008/9 vs. Canada).

Will there always be a class of people that are unaffected by this, and will just jump in (and be able to do so) when prices drop? Sure, but in a recession, this pool will be much smaller than now. Once prices start to go down, then people are less interested to purchase, as Garth has noted before. The bank of M&D will have less equity to extract for the down payments.

Won’t Poloz go all Canadian QE and drastically reduce interest rates (trashing the $CAD in the process)? Probably. But initially that is pushing on a rope. QE doesn’t give someone a job. Companies do that. And they get all risk-averse in a recession, so that takes some time (it was many years in the US). Also, mortgage rates are not a 100% “made in Canada” product. Higher rates in US / rest of world affect what banks here will lend at.

But what about immigration? Indeed it does create the demand for more housing units, but doesn’t necessarily mean they all can afford to buy, or pay exorbitant rent. Is Canada only bringing in millionaire immigrants now?

My money is on a substantial correction (perhaps 40-50% from the peak), but it will not get there by B20 or other gov’t rules – not without the fear brought on by recession/slow down which has rising unemployment.

For those thinking that prices will stay same/moderate for now, but then rocket higher in a year or so – I hope you have a strong stomach.

#231 Mark on 02.22.18 at 9:51 am

“Can market insiders illuminate us as to what is happening in Calgary?”

Yeah Calgary prices peaked in 2011, 2 years prior to the Canada-wide (ie: GTA/GVR) peak experienced in 2013. There was a bit of distortion during the floods and such, with exaggerated claims being made by Realtors, but once that went away, its just been stagnation and falling prices since.

#232 Relaxation Time on 02.22.18 at 9:53 am

#222 Smoking Man on 02.22.18 at 9:13 am
#195 Bottoms_Up on 02.22.18 at 2:17 am
Our women played great. Lost the gold on a bad line change in the 3rd.
…….

T2 Karma is bitch.
**********

You made the all-to-common error of confusing T2 with T2*, also referred to as T2 Star.

http://mriquestions.com/t2-vs-t2.html

PS The girls played their hearts out and we are proud.

#233 fancy_pants on 02.22.18 at 10:10 am

does anyone else feel like the glue holding the thin veneer of a civilized society is beginning to come undone? most are probably too self-absorbed to even notice.

#234 Ian on 02.22.18 at 10:30 am

98 acdel on 02.21.18 at 8:09 pm
#87 Calgary
#51 ole Doberman

That makes three of us. I too, am baffled on how well the prices have held up considering how battered this province has been through in the past few years, obviously most are seeing it as a blip!
————————————————-

Add me to your list. Absolutely amazed at how well Calgary held up.

My best friend is SO lucky. She is selling her dad’s house on Elbow Drive as he is now in a nursing home. I went out to Calgary in 2014 to help her get junk out of the house (big packrats her parents!) and I was begging and pleading with her to list the damn house, as I saw the monster bear coming.

She’s only getting around to it now, but luckily the bids coming are good. Lucky!

#235 Ian on 02.22.18 at 10:33 am

230 Mark on 02.22.18 at 9:51 am
“Can market insiders illuminate us as to what is happening in Calgary?”

Yeah Calgary prices peaked in 2011, 2 years prior to the Canada-wide (ie: GTA/GVR) peak experienced in 2013.
————————————

How is it you’re not aware that GTA prices peaked in April 2017?!?

#236 Stan Brooks on 02.22.18 at 10:45 am

#228 Ian on 02.22.18 at 9:46 am

So a 54.5% decline just to get things started. Thoughts?

—————————-

Sounds reasonable. But it might overshoot on the downside. It could be 70 % (GTA suburbs – Mississauga, Vaughan, …).

=======================

#222 Smoking Man on 02.22.18 at 9:13 am
#195 Bottoms_Up on 02.22.18 at 2:17 am
Our women played great. Lost the gold on a bad line change in the 3rd.
…….

T2 Karma is bitch.

It was just bad luck. Great opportunity to learn from mistakes (so hard for us) and destroy them next time.

=======================

#229 PastThePeak on 02.22.18 at 9:50 am

very intelligent post. great work.

#237 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.22.18 at 10:52 am

SCM just can’t help herself. We are like a drug and she keeps coming back for a troll-high.

#238 Smoking Man on 02.22.18 at 10:53 am

Canary in a coal mine.

Retail sales brutal. The result of negative wealth effect in real estate. USDCAD on a tear.

T2s and wynees fault.

#239 Holding opposing views is NOT trolling, SCM on 02.22.18 at 10:59 am

GONE

#240 Hockey Game on 02.22.18 at 11:03 am

The shootout was lost by Canada because the other team figured out the weird goalie’s style. The goalie was consistently before shots falling back on her butt leaving the net open. The dog above in the photo is a crisis actor being paid the latest minimum wage plus being rewarded with a doggy biscuit for a great performance.

#241 A J on 02.22.18 at 11:04 am

#233 fancy_pants

Society is fine. Humans are so resilient. It’s nature is what scares me. Society cannot hold itself together if our natural resources dwindle and dwindle. I had worried about society over the past year, but it seems that people are starting to stand up for what’s right and fight back against corruption. I hope this continues. I don’t think society will fall, I think it will come roaring back stronger. Just like how society pulled itself back together, and improved, after WWII. I think what we really need to worry about are if a bunch of catastrophes were to occur at once. Like if natural disasters increase, resources dwindle, the economy crashes, etc. But I don’t think society itself will just fall apart at the seems. I think it’d need to be savagely ripped apart from all angles. Lets hope that never happens!

#242 Crazed and a little confused on 02.22.18 at 11:04 am

People blame you Garth for being wrong about real estate that silly.
You are wrong …so what. You are not some Oracle. If you were..you would be making billions, not on this blog.
You gave some guidelines on how to invest and that was it. I took most of it and did ok. I bought blue chips and ETFs and reits
I sold some and try to buy back again. 2 were suffessful 3 were not. If the market corrects about 5% I will buy again. But overall I gained. I made 51% on my marajani etf. Can’t complain .

Learn from mistake and move on

#243 Fair Share on 02.22.18 at 11:06 am

Everybody pays their fair share, and I don’t care if it doesn’t hurt the RE market, but I think it will. This is the most accurate statement on the new BC 2% tax that I have read. Now the Feds need to get theirs as well.
“My basic test was you shouldn’t be able to buy a $4-million house and pay less than $20,000 in income and property taxes to British Columbia. Because your property tax in Vancouver is going to be something like $12,000 on that, which is a ridiculous joke,” Davidoff told the Courier Feb. 20. “B.C. should be a place where the tax code makes it hard to buy property but easy to make a living. We’ve been the opposite so they’re moving in the right direction.”

Davidoff called the provincial government’s plan to introduce, in the fall of 2018, a new speculation tax on residential property a “really good idea.” It will target both foreign and domestic speculators who own residential property in B.C. but don’t pay taxes here and it will apply to Metro Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Capital and Nanaimo regional districts and Kelowna and West Kelowna. The tax rate will be 0.5 per cent of taxable assessed value for the 2018 tax year and two per cent thereafter.

#244 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 02.22.18 at 11:11 am

#228 Ian on 02.22.18 at 9:46 am
Folks, since we are all trying to figure out how much median GTA price will decline, I’ve put the following analysis together this morning.

So a 54.5% decline just to get things started. Thoughts?
____________________________________________

Japan is an interesting study because their real estate values dropped without rising interest rates. Once the bubble popped the psychology of the people changed to believing real estate investing was risky. Then they treated housing as a necessary expense rather than a way to get rich quick.

I think the main drivers were debt deleveraging and aging of the population. These will both become a factor in Canada. Rising interest rates should force mortgage holders to start paying their debts rather than adding to them. The aging of the boomer generation is inevitable.

In Japan prices had the biggest rise and subsequent fall in the big cities. Canada’s equivalent would be Vancouver and Toronto. In Tokyo, land prices dropped close to 70%. I don’t think it will get that bad in Canada since our total population will increase, despite the aging boomers. I think a 50% drop, followed by many years of less than inflationary increases is possible in GTA and maybe more in YVR. The following graphs give some idea of what happened to land prices in Japan:

https://i1.wp.com/misfitsarchitecture.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/e1-1-02.gif

https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/template/assets/img/japan-Residential-Urban-Land-Price-index-1.gif

#245 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.22.18 at 11:13 am

@#239 Graceless Loser

Obstinate petulance isn’t an endearing quality in any generation.
Go away troll

#246 Stan Brooks on 02.22.18 at 11:15 am

#238 Smoking Man on 02.22.18 at 10:53 am
Canary in a coal mine.

Retail sales brutal. The result of negative wealth effect in real estate. USDCAD on a tear.

T2s and wynees fault.

——————————–

It seems that way.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-22/loonie-tumbles-canadian-retail-sales-crashed-december

Record decline in retail sales in the month of December (no money for gifts I guess, have to pay the mortgage) combined with record declining saving rates to 2.6 %,
combined with assault on Business and higher taxes, including carbon.

Loonie tumbles on its way to 50 euro cents.
Nothing new under the sun.

—————————-

#230 PastThePeak on 02.22.18 at 9:50 am

But, despite these great economic numbers, we see lots of troubling data: record consumer debt-to-income & debt-to-GDP, large % not covering needs, raiding of HELOC and RRSP’s to make ends meet, many more within $200/month of difficulty, now with higher taxes. All WITHIN an economic expansion.

—————————-

It is easy explained by the fact that the so called ‘recovery’ here was simply based on more borrowing/grow of debt. Tons of it.

Accompanied with capital flowing to real estate instead of real economy. No wonder TSX did and will under-perform.

#247 waiting on the westcoast on 02.22.18 at 11:19 am

#231 Mark on 02.22.18 at 9:51 am says again and again and again…

“Yeah Calgary prices peaked in 2011, 2 years prior to the Canada-wide (ie: GTA/GVR) peak experienced in 2013. There was a bit of distortion during the floods and such, with exaggerated claims being made by Realtors, but once that went away, its just been stagnation and falling prices since.”

Mark – saying it over and over doesn’t make it true… ;-)

#248 For those about to flop... on 02.22.18 at 11:22 am

#192 Floppy on 02.22.18 at 2:07 am
Somerville sale at 1.210.000

////////////////////////////

Well,there you go.It shows you how far one of the cheapest options in Vancouver had to come down to get the deal done.

Luckily for them it wasn’t a recent purchase and they still would have made out alright,a luxury my Pink Snow cases don’t have.

Thanks for doing this ,I will ask you to do some more in a minute as I have yet to find someone to complete my January sales report…

M43BC

For those about to flop…
Recent Sale Report/ Realtor Assistance Needed.

This is a house that I reported on once before that was languishing on the market despite being one of the more affordable options in Vancouver proper.

I actually suggested it as an option when everyone seemed to think moving to south of the Fraser River was the best option.

It had been slowly renovated in a tasteful manner and finally found a new owner 27 days ago.

They did not appear to be in rush to sell, but in the madness of Spring 2016 could have gotten something approaching 1.6m

How much did they settle for…

M43BC

Asking
2017-05-24 : $1,399,000
2017-06-28 : $1,379,000
2017-12-04 : $1,298,000

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/4961-somerville-street

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#249 waiting on the westcoast on 02.22.18 at 11:27 am

A buddy of mine just told me a development that they are working on has received two letters from foreign investors asking to be released from condo pre-sales.

It appears all of the changes came after their initial deposits and they cannot afford the revised total cost which is now approaching a 25% increase from their expected investment when they made their initial deposit.

I asked him to keep me in the loop if locals also start walking from their deposits.

#250 IHCTD9 on 02.22.18 at 11:30 am

#58 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 6:47 pm

I gave you more leash on this blog than you deserved, and still you troll, disrupt and distort. Your time here is over. Do not even try to crawl back. – Garth
________

LOL @ SCM! Dumbass of the year award goes to you my friend.

I knew you wouldn’t last long!

#251 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 02.22.18 at 11:31 am

#89 KLNR on 02.21.18 at 7:58 pm

religion – biggest con game in history
_______________________________________________

But – but -but – they have a book to prove it’s true.

George Carlin’s take on religion:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r-e2NDSTuE

#252 IHCTD9 on 02.22.18 at 11:33 am

#239 Holding opposing views is NOT trolling, SCM on 02.22.18 at 10:59 am

GONE
_____

Hahahaha!!

Good grief Woman, where is your self respect?

Give up already, salvage some of your self esteem. I’ve already located you elsewhere on the net – go spew in those places (seriously, do it).

#253 For those about to flop... on 02.22.18 at 11:36 am

To the Good Samaritan who helped me out with Woodstock and Somerville:

Here is a February sale I would like some help with as well.

102-5131 Brighouse Way, Richmond paid 3.02 asking 3.58 condo

Sold on February 11th 2018

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/5131-brighouse-way/102

January 2018 Sales Report/Realtor Assistance Needed.

Fill in the blanks when you get the chance and thanks for the help in advance…

M43BC

Pandora paid 1.29

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2712-pandora-street

1st Ave Paid 1.41 condo

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/88-w-1st-avenue/1101

Milford Paid 1.23

https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/1508-milford-avenue

Sophia Paid 1.47

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/5748-sophia-street

Farmer Paid 1.21 Sold 1.21

https://www.zolo.ca/abbotsford-real-estate/34288-farmer-road

Jaskow Paid 1.9 Sold 1.58

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/5691-jaskow-drive

Woodhead Paid 1.31

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/4231-woodhead-road

79thave, Paid 845k

https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/11288-79-avenue

Chamberlayne Paid 1.02 Sold 1.08

https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/5295-chamberlayne-avenue

Coventry Paid 2.83

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/4260-coventry-drive

Sunland Paid 1.3

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/4582-sunland-place

72nd ave,Paid 560 this cheaper option in Surrey actually sold in late December but I will put it up in the hope it helps someone.

Was in Possible Pinkies Folder but most likely made money.

https://www.zolo.ca/surrey-real-estate/14948-72-avenue

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#254 waiting on the westcoast on 02.22.18 at 11:39 am

Under 10 units are foreign owned out of 100+.

There is nothing like rapidly changing rules to ruin foreign investment.

Canada keeps acting more and more like a banana republic. The government never should have loosened policy to drive real estate and now they are engaging in reactionary policies which hurt a small subset to fulfill victim thinking.

Both just create havoc and cause harm. And neither help with creating a stable framework which is what global money seeks even before returns…

#255 Zapstrap on 02.22.18 at 11:47 am

#188 fishman on 02.22.18 at 1:28 am

Ever read “The last gang in town?” Grew up knowing some of these guys and remember East Van exactly as it is written. Great read for a taste of how Van used to be.

#256 Steven Rowlandson on 02.22.18 at 11:48 am

Short of a massive collapse in home prices and or rents the real estate market can not be sanitized or tolerated without being an accessory to its crimes against humanity.

#257 Keith in Rio on 02.22.18 at 11:51 am

The reason we have this problem as s due to the immoral and criminal leftist concept of globalism.

It is a crime against humanity and those who support it should be dealt with accordingly.

who support it should be prosecuted as such.

#258 Keith in Rio on 02.22.18 at 11:52 am

Get a blog with an edit feature please !!

#259 Wrk.dover on 02.22.18 at 12:00 pm

Is/was SCM actually our Prime Minister????

#260 Howard on 02.22.18 at 12:08 pm

‘I’m not crazy about Canada’: Investors bail on trapped oil as pipeline problems worsen

http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/investors-bail-on-landlocked-canada-oil-as-pipeline-woes-deepen

#261 Headhunter on 02.22.18 at 12:10 pm

I used to asked my kids? (I have 3, kinda unheard of these days) What happened to Rome?

same as is happening now. People just unhitched their horse from the wagon as couldn’t make it with the high taxes, nepotism, royal caste getting all the spoils…Is Julian Fantino in the building?

I’m in the over 50% crash club. I have a client in Etobicoke looking for a Designer.. jr pays 38K.. cant live on your own and get to work with clean clothes for 38K per annum in Toronto!! Hence role is open. Same gig in Michigan.. 38K you can have a car, an apartment and $$$ left over

Toronto is Toast..w/ Avacado but still toast.

#262 burnaby guy on 02.22.18 at 12:14 pm

#231 Mark

” Yeah Calgary prices peaked in 2011, 2 years prior to the Canada-wide (ie: GTA/GVR) peak experienced in 2013″

This Mark guy keeps saying RE peak in 2013. Well my condo, my parent’s house, my friends houses, my coworkers condos and houses all have gone up since 2013 on the lower mainland by a lot. It’s like he keeps saying 1+1 equals 3 and say it many times and hope people would believe it. Well Mark 1+1=2 not 3 so please stop that and don’t embarrass yourself.

#263 James on 02.22.18 at 12:14 pm

#238 Smoking Man on 02.22.18 at 10:53 am

Canary in a coal mine.

Retail sales brutal. The result of negative wealth effect in real estate. USDCAD on a tear.

T2s and wynees fault.
…………………………………………………………………
Again? Sorry I forgot Wynne as one of your go to blame game patsies.
You have anything original Old Man?

#264 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 02.22.18 at 12:21 pm

#241 A J on 02.22.18 at 11:04 am

I don’t think society will fall, I think it will come roaring back stronger.
____________________________________________

Just as summer fades to fall and winter, so do societies. Then they are reborn in the spring. Our society is now starting fall, and winter is coming.

“we will introduce the concept of the civilization cycle, the periodic rise and fall over thousands of years. We will then analyze the rise and collapse of the Roman Empire, and then finally explore what the future may hold for our own civilization.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8rsb7qILgE

#265 James on 02.22.18 at 12:22 pm

Below is Donald Trumps tweet. My wife sent this to me just for laughs.

Just watched a very insecure Oprah Winfrey, who at one point I knew very well, interview a panel of people on 60 Minutes. The questions were biased and slanted, the facts incorrect. Hope Oprah runs so she can be exposed and defeated just like all of the others!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 19, 2018
……………………………………………………………………
Old penis head is somewhat foggy. This fellow must have the largest insecurity in the entire free world. Or it could be that his insignificant hands are initiating a problem in the boudoir with the princess?
Humm………..Not that I care about his lack of machismo. He is still a large male appendage.

#266 IHCTD9 on 02.22.18 at 12:29 pm

#241 A J on 02.22.18 at 11:04 am
#233 fancy_pants

Society is fine. Humans are so resilient. It’s nature is what scares me. Society cannot hold itself together if our natural resources dwindle and dwindle. I had worried about society over the past year, but it seems that people are starting to stand up for what’s right and fight back against corruption. I hope this continues. I don’t think society will fall, I think it will come roaring back stronger. Just like how society pulled itself back together, and improved, after WWII. I think what we really need to worry about are if a bunch of catastrophes were to occur at once. Like if natural disasters increase, resources dwindle, the economy crashes, etc. But I don’t think society itself will just fall apart at the seems. I think it’d need to be savagely ripped apart from all angles. Lets hope that never happens!
_______________________________________

If you want a very solid theory on what takes down a society, watch/read some Joseph Tainter. His ideas in a nutshell are that as societies get bigger, they solve their problems with complexity. The complexity costs resources, and said costs eventually cause the living standards in a society to stall and then start to simplify (ie. go backwards).

#267 James on 02.22.18 at 12:36 pm

My father told me of the days when mortgages were at 13% and even higher. He conceded though homes were then at least more affordable then. So meh if they double so what from 3% to 6% . Not a big deal for those who have a decent down payment, a reasonable long term rate and control their spending. That is the main problem is people spend like they have an unlimited amount of credit and way beyond their means. I have always done an analysis of what I can afford and what risk I have if something goes awry. It is simple but some many people I have run into just jump in guns a blazing to have that big home in the centre of metropolis. Our investments are basically my wife’s wages minus a little for vacations and side $ for her car. My wages cover everything else. Is it all went south I could care less. I planned for it.

#268 Howard on 02.22.18 at 12:36 pm

Enjoy the peace while it lasts because SCM will be back as soon as he gets a new phone. For people like him it’s usually a yearly upgrade. If he ever gets a job he might use his work computer as well. He’ll have to take up a different persona though so as not to tip off our host.

#269 James on 02.22.18 at 12:39 pm

#261 Headhunter on 02.22.18 at 12:10 pm

I used to asked my kids? (I have 3, kinda unheard of these days) What happened to Rome?

same as is happening now. People just unhitched their horse from the wagon as couldn’t make it with the high taxes, nepotism, royal caste getting all the spoils…Is Julian Fantino in the building?

I’m in the over 50% crash club. I have a client in Etobicoke looking for a Designer.. jr pays 38K.. cant live on your own and get to work with clean clothes for 38K per annum in Toronto!! Hence role is open. Same gig in Michigan.. 38K you can have a car, an apartment and $$$ left over

Toronto is Toast..w/ Avacado but still toast.
…………………………………………………………………..
Ah but what part of Michigan? Detroit? Lansing? Grand Rapids? Give us a place to compare to, forget it its still Michigan!

#270 n1tro on 02.22.18 at 12:46 pm

#67 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 7:06 pm
GONE
——————-
If there was only some way we could capitalize on SCM doing something to get herself banned. Id put everything i have on that sure bet and retire wealthy.

Cue in “Garth is a bully”, censorship is wrong, SCM is just misunderstood crowd….

#271 n1tro on 02.22.18 at 12:51 pm

#116 You don’t know what you got till it’s GONE, Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.21.18 at 8:48 pm
———–
Like Herpes?!

#272 BobC on 02.22.18 at 12:56 pm

Tell me some more about how Trumps nuts and not presidential.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5421779/Justin-Trudeau-ridiculed-Indians-fake-outfits.html

#273 SimplyPut7 on 02.22.18 at 1:07 pm

Slaughtered could be swaths of the 905 or the LM – Richmond Hill, Vaughan, Ajax, Burnaby, Abby or PoCo – where prices swelled as the stupid money sloshed out of Toronto or Vancouver.

As far the urban cores of those cities, as mentioned, there’s no 40% drop on the horizon, given the paucity of listings, building constraints and the fact the largest demographic in society (Boomers just passed the torch to the Mills) think work needs to be within an easy bicycle ride of home. This is the most downtown gen in Canadian history, now creating its own frenzied market, driving up condo prices 24% a year even while detached values crumble by 9%.

———————

The music has stopped for the speculators and flippers, their money is tied up in unfinished housing developments that have stalled around the GTA.

We also have the paper flippers, who unwillingly became homeowners, who can’t easily sell their ‘sure bets’ in the 905. They are trying to sell a row townhouse the same price as a newly renovated detached home:

small row townhouse – 10+ units available for sale on same crescent
https://www.rew.ca/properties/N4026072/6-arianna-crescent-vaughan-on

vs.

detached house in Vaughan
https://www.rew.ca/properties/N3987570/109-toscana-road-vaughan-on

* Are these properties from people in the “core” city of Toronto sitting on someone’s HELOC?
* Did people in Toronto use their HELOC to lend money to the developers, flippers and speculators so they can purchase these homes?
* Were these homes bought with short-term loans from private lenders (MICs) who are starting to wonder why they haven’t been paid back in full yet?

I doubt cash from savings paid for these homes and renovations. Eventually lenders will want their money back and the unknown risks that start creeping out from the shadow banking sector will cause irrational fear to take over the GTA housing market and cause the 40% decreases in prices.

#274 Tater on 02.22.18 at 1:08 pm

#228 Ian on 02.22.18 at 9:46 am
Folks, since we are all trying to figure out how much median GTA price will decline, I’ve put the following analysis together this morning.

Please go through it and give me your feedback, a group effort is always better than an individual’s!

http://www.torontohomes-for-sale.com/Toronto-average-real-estate-property-prices.html

Here we have an inflation-adjusted graph which shows Toronto prices since 1953, with a line of best fit included.

Real estate moves in long, multi-year waves. The market, like any other financial market, moves above and below the trend line.

Considering how much previous corrections have gone below trend, I’ll use the following figures since it’s hard to see precisely on the graph:

Top: 825
Below trend target: 375
Making a potential decline of 54.5%.

So that would be consistent with previous trends.

Now I’ll discuss why I feel this one should be much, much worse.

1) The last decline from 89-96 was a 33% drop and that was only after an (albeit aggressive) four year bull market from 85-89. We are currently at the end of a 21 YEAR BULL MARKET.

2) The absurdly cheap credit environment today is far different from what existed then.

3) OSFI B-20 is only just in place and as Garth has been saying, it will take time to really start to hurt, but I believe it’s happening already. Banks have clearly taken steps to tighten their lending in the last few months.

So a 54.5% decline just to get things started. Thoughts?
—————————————————————–

Squares with my numbers as well. I used a trend line of CPI +250 bps (to help account for the fact that houses have gotten bigger and more “luxurious” over time) and we got 90% above trend in 1989 and in the spring of 2017.

#275 IHCTD9 on 02.22.18 at 1:17 pm

#175 Two-thirds on 02.21.18 at 11:37 pm
______________________

Your bro seems well positioned to buy – if everything stated is true, he’ll do fine.

The only thing that pops into my head is his job security, his personal health, and the health of his marriage. If all is in good shape, then I’d not bother him any longer.

However, if he buys big – then everything hinges on that big salary he’s getting. If his previous and next job could not hope to pay the same, then he has a “unicorn” compensation package – these tend to go extinct before too long.

If he is a young 20/30 something and just starting out maybe with young kids or about to have kids – his marriage toughness has not yet been tested. Kids can tax it all to the max. 30-40 can be a rough decade.

Obviously divorce would be a financial death sentence for your bro if he is the bread winner. It’s a real 50/50 chance he gets destroyed on this front. In this day and age, and with such high chances- it MUST be considered with realistic bets placed as much as possible. Look at individual and parental histories when it comes to predicting future performances.

If the job is public sector – ignore everything I’ve said about job security.

#276 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 02.22.18 at 1:24 pm

#266 IHCTD9 on 02.22.18 at 12:29 pm

If you want a very solid theory on what takes down a society, watch/read some Joseph Tainter. His ideas in a nutshell are that as societies get bigger, they solve their problems with complexity. The complexity costs resources, and said costs eventually cause the living standards in a society to stall and then start to simplify (ie. go backwards).
_____________________________________________

J. D. Unwin had a different theory based on loss of social cohesion in his book “Sex and Culture” (1934). Unwin studied 80 primitive tribes and 6 known civilizations through 5,000 years of history. He found that once they became feminist, collapse was inevitable. This video describes his theory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFyIzoBwXVk

#277 Mattl on 02.22.18 at 1:56 pm

#185 Flop

There isn’t any msrp for homes. That house hasn’t sold in more then 3 years so seller likely made 1-2mm tax free. That is the story, not that it sold below the original asking price or the assessment.

Here is how the logic works….

I buy a house for 500k, list it for 9mm and sell it for 1.5 mm. That is a 1mm gain, not a 7.5mm loss. This is really basic stuff. Garth lets you spam the forum daily and never respond to the topic at hand, can you at least keep your “study” focused on true RE losses? Is your folder that thin that you need to pull in examples of sellers making a fortune on RE and try to position it as a loss?

#278 Ray on 02.22.18 at 1:59 pm

Is it me or is this one of the most pathetic pictures seen. What is T2 trying to do? Does he believe imitation is flattery? What happened to serious respectfulness. This is a joke. I would be insulted if another “World Leader” dressed up as a Mountie to address Parliament. Does T2 think he has to this because when it comes to serious negotiations, “he’s got nothing”? As a Canadian, I am insulted that our “Leader “ would steep so low.
http://nationalpost.com/news/canada/some-people-are-rolling-their-eyes-at-the-trudeau-familys-extra-fashion-choices-in-india

#279 A J on 02.22.18 at 2:02 pm

#276 Democracy Is Mob Rule

Ah yes, the old “blame women” argument. Is it women who destroy society, or the backlash from men when they become equals?

If society is based on the abuse, control, and marginalization of women, let it burn.

#280 Ace Goodheart on 02.22.18 at 2:02 pm

So BC has officially decided to tax all non resident property owners:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/canadians-with-bc-vacation-homes-to-be-hit-with-new-tax/article38061593/

This new tax is extreme.

A non BC resident with a property tax bill right now of around $3000.00 per year, will after the tax is implemented, be paying around $22,000 per year in tax for the same property.

That is the equivalent of owing a multi million dollar home in Forest Hill, Toronto. This will effect people with summer cottage type properties, particularly people who live in Alberta. It will also effect any non BC resident, Canadian citizen who has purchased a condo in BC for use on weekends, for work or school.

Of particular concern would be the hundreds of thousands of ski condos, owned mostly by people who do not live in BC. It would not be possible to occupy a ski condo as your principal residence. Yet owners will soon be taxed to the tune of $20-30K per year, to own these things.

Re: #266 IHCTD9 on 02.22.18 at 12:29 pm

“If you want a very solid theory on what takes down a society, watch/read some Joseph Tainter. His ideas in a nutshell are that as societies get bigger, they solve their problems with complexity. The complexity costs resources, and said costs eventually cause the living standards in a society to stall and then start to simplify (ie. go backwards).”

Bureaucracy leads to social decline.

Too much nonsense to wade through to get anything done. No one bothers anymore. No one understands the rules.

#281 Sideshow Rob on 02.22.18 at 2:04 pm

“Is/was SCM actually our Prime Minister????”

I doubt it. SCM may be very naive but s/he seems to have an IQ above room temperature.

#282 Mark on 02.22.18 at 2:10 pm

“This Mark guy keeps saying RE peak in 2013. Well my condo, my parent’s house, my friends houses, my coworkers condos and houses all have gone up since 2013 on the lower mainland by a lot.”

Did they actually sell? Or did they read the Realtor numbers out of the newspaper (which are deliberately not sales mix adjusted) and just extrapolate to their own situations?

#283 KLNR on 02.22.18 at 2:27 pm

@#257 Keith in Rio on 02.22.18 at 11:51 am
The reason we have this problem as s due to the immoral and criminal leftist concept of globalism.

It is a crime against humanity and those who support it should be dealt with accordingly.

who support it should be prosecuted as such.
_____________

LOL, ok hitler.

#284 JRT on 02.22.18 at 2:44 pm

Great post Garth!

#4 here is a link you will find interesting. Glorious Leader is making a fool of himself on his “diplomatic” holiday. Didn’t read all the posts yet , so may be posted.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5421779/Justin-Trudeau-ridiculed-Indians-fake-outfits.html

#285 AGuyInVancouver on 02.22.18 at 2:50 pm

#280 Ace Goodheart on 02.22.18 at 2:02 pm
So BC has officially decided to tax all non resident property owners:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/canadians-with-bc-vacation-homes-to-be-hit-with-new-tax/article38061593/

This new tax is extreme.

A non BC resident with a property tax bill right now of around $3000.00 per year, will after the tax is implemented, be paying around $22,000 per year in tax for the same property.

That is the equivalent of owing a multi million dollar home in Forest Hill, Toronto. This will effect people with summer cottage type properties, particularly people who live in Alberta..
– – –
Particularly Albertans? Aww gee, say it ain’t so. You won’t find too much sympathy for that view in BC.

#286 Why not Whistler? on 02.22.18 at 2:50 pm

Why is Whistler exempt from this speculation tax?

#287 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 02.22.18 at 2:51 pm

#279 A J on 02.22.18 at 2:02 pm
#276 Democracy Is Mob Rule

Ah yes, the old “blame women” argument. Is it women who destroy society, or the backlash from men when they become equals?

If society is based on the abuse, control, and marginalization of women, let it burn.
_____________________________________________

Women don’t destroy society directly, they do it by voting for socialist governments. The state becomes a surrogate husband. Taxes rise, regulations increase. People lose incentive and stop working, going on welfare instead. When the Roman Empire collapsed, one third of citizens were on welfare. And yes, it did burn.

#288 Stan Brooks on 02.22.18 at 2:53 pm

#278 Ray on 02.22.18 at 1:59 pm
Is it me or is this one of the most pathetic pictures seen. What is T2 trying to do? Does he believe imitation is flattery? What happened to serious respectfulness. This is a joke. I would be insulted if another “World Leader” dressed up as a Mountie to address Parliament. Does T2 think he has to this because when it comes to serious negotiations, “he’s got nothing”? As a Canadian, I am insulted that our “Leader “ would steep so low.
http://nationalpost.com/news/canada/some-people-are-rolling-their-eyes-at-the-trudeau-familys-extra-fashion-choices-in-india

———————————-

Suddenly little Kim Jon, even the orange guy start looking like mental giants, right?

Looking forward to see him in a g-string.

#289 Stan Brooks on 02.22.18 at 2:59 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/no-trump-like-tax-cuts-but-sweeteners-for-business-maybe-what-to-watch-for-in-the-budget

It seems there are some problems coming for our esteemed honorable financial minister.

I smell wide goose chase for tax cheats when his budget bombs. Probably spend 2 billions to recover 2 millions type of stuff. Fairness above all.

#290 Stan Brooks on 02.22.18 at 3:03 pm

wild goose chase

#291 Penny Henny on 02.22.18 at 3:14 pm

#282 Mark on 02.22.18 at 2:10 pm
“This Mark guy keeps saying RE peak in 2013. Well my condo, my parent’s house, my friends houses, my coworkers condos and houses all have gone up since 2013 on the lower mainland by a lot.”

Did they actually sell? Or did they read the Realtor numbers out of the newspaper (which are deliberately not sales mix adjusted) and just extrapolate to their own situations?
////////////////////

In 2013 houses similar to mine were selling in the low 600,000 range. When I sold in May 2017 I got 950,000. If I had sold in March it would have been 1,050,000.
The % increase over the time period was very typical for Toronto SFH.
Mark you are woefully misinformed.

#292 45north on 02.22.18 at 3:15 pm

Two-thirds: I spoke of the potential for a RE value decline and he countered saying that all of the listings he is looking at have been sitting for months and not selling or have been relisted since the fall (this is in Edmonton, AB). He thinks sellers are motivated and claims prices have come down already.

I think you’ve done all you can.

#293 burnaby guy on 02.22.18 at 3:17 pm

#282 Mark

The house next to my parents sold for over asking. I know about my own condo’s number every year from BC Assessment. I don’t bother to look at any realtor’s web site to find out. To me my condo is for living not for checking against a website. I know. We live here in Burnaby. Do you? You are the one that pick out some sales mix numbers from some website and claim that’s true. What a bunch of stupid questions.

#294 conan on 02.22.18 at 3:28 pm

#278 Ray on 02.22.18 at 1:59 pm

JT’s shoes are bland compared to this guy
https://youtu.be/IOrUHZjsg_Y?t=23

More concerning is that person who was mistakenly invited to the PM’s meet and greet. Dodged a shoe there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aA_j4KpP0W0

#295 Tater on 02.22.18 at 3:29 pm

#282 Mark on 02.22.18 at 2:10 pm
“This Mark guy keeps saying RE peak in 2013. Well my condo, my parent’s house, my friends houses, my coworkers condos and houses all have gone up since 2013 on the lower mainland by a lot.”

Did they actually sell? Or did they read the Realtor numbers out of the newspaper (which are deliberately not sales mix adjusted) and just extrapolate to their own situations?
—————————————————————–

I bought a house in 2012 and sold it in 2016 for 20% more. In the following 18 months, houses that were sold in the same neighborhood in ’12 that were resold went for 20-25% more.

Your assertion of a 2013 price peak is absurd.

#296 jess on 02.22.18 at 3:32 pm

The Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 set out ways to wind-down failing financial firms, tightened oversight of the sector, created a new agency for consumer finance laws, and introduced stronger capital requirements, among a raft other measures.

and now TRump is dialing back so…. according to this imf paper …

Rolling back regulations often comes BEFORE a financial meltdown, according to 300 years of history

https://qz.com/1181498/rolling-back-regulations-often-comes-before-a-financial-meltdown-according-to-the-imf/

#297 jess on 02.22.18 at 3:39 pm

Better Markets Applauds Treasury Department’s Recognition of Necessary OLA Orderly Liquidation Authority) Failsafe Protection

” Unlike most companies in bankruptcies, these too-big-to-fail firms simply don’t have the cash flow to provide sufficient ready liquidity to survive immediate collapse. Rather than having receivables, banks have run-ables, which will quickly result in a disorderly bankruptcy like Lehman Brothers in 2008, risking contagion and disaster.

“Importantly, used correctly, OLA will result in liquidation, but an orderly liquidation rather than a damaging disorderly liquidation. There must be no doubt that OLA will wipe out shareholders, convert certain debt to equity, extinguish claims, fire the Board of Directors and management, claw back compensation, and otherwise make the process as painful as possible for those who ran the company into ruin, particularly its most senior executives. Unlike 2008, OLA must not be an unaccountable bailout for underserving bankers. It must be an exacting penalty, where the CEO and others must be ejected in disgrace and, ideally, penurious.”

https://bettermarkets.com/newsroom/better-markets-applauds-treasury-department%E2%80%99s-recognition-necessary-ola-failsafe-protection

#298 Re-read #58 and ask yourself what in the world did I say that was bannable? - SCM on 02.22.18 at 3:42 pm

GONE

#299 A J on 02.22.18 at 3:43 pm

#287 Democracy Is Mob Rule

Arguing over why Rome fell is futile, because no one really knows. There are many, many theories. But blaming feminists is laughable in my opinion. It’s also believed that Rome was in a state of war at the time of collapse, and that they spent so much money on their military that their society started to fall apart. But no, feminists right? Is that what people will be saying if our current society fails? Just ignore everything, every outside influence and point the finger at women. What a ridiculous and incredibly sexist theory. One that holds no water at all.

#300 SimplyPut7 on 02.22.18 at 3:49 pm

#273 SimplyPut7 on 02.22.18 at 1:07 pm

Also, I would hate to be in the newer built homes bought at peak FOMO, knowing my family could have been in a nicer home for less money if I had just waited a year.

https://www.rew.ca/properties/N4043540/86-arianna-crescent-vaughan-on

Look at the bathroom sink and faucet, for 1.288 million I expect something a bit nicer than that.

Maybe it’s a bad angle but the area available for the kitchen stove and fridge look like they would only fit appliances found in small apartments in Toronto.

#301 IHCTD9 on 02.22.18 at 3:53 pm

#278 Ray on 02.22.18 at 1:59 pm

Is it me or is this one of the most pathetic pictures seen. What is T2 trying to do? Does he believe imitation is flattery?
_______________________

I think he’s just stupid.

Stupid with an unflagging vitality.

#302 Stan Brooks on 02.22.18 at 4:06 pm

#300 SimplyPut7 on 02.22.18 at 3:49 pm
#273 SimplyPut7 on 02.22.18 at 1:07 pm

Also, I would hate to be in the newer built homes bought at peak FOMO, knowing my family could have been in a nicer home for less money if I had just waited a year.

https://www.rew.ca/properties/N4043540/86-arianna-crescent-vaughan-on

Look at the bathroom sink and faucet, for 1.288 million I expect something a bit nicer than that.

Maybe it’s a bad angle but the area available for the kitchen stove and fridge look like they would only fit appliances found in small apartments in Toronto.

————————————

This thingy that they call ‘townhouse’ is not worth even 250 k in my mind considering the location.

And it called ‘luxurious’. sure. super crappy kitchen.

OMG. This piece of work is not worth even 20 % of the announced price.

Gave me a good laugh.

#303 James on 02.22.18 at 4:08 pm

My god the American Intelligence Quotient has diminished greatly. In the words of DJ Trump, SAD, SAD very SAD.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2018/02/21/russian-trolls-american-2016-campaign-pkg-griffin-ac360.cnn

#304 James on 02.22.18 at 4:10 pm

#301 IHCTD9 on 02.22.18 at 3:53 pm

#278 Ray on 02.22.18 at 1:59 pm

Is it me or is this one of the most pathetic pictures seen. What is T2 trying to do? Does he believe imitation is flattery?
_______________________

I think he’s just stupid.

Stupid with an unflagging vitality.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
He is a fence sitting nanny pandering twit or perhaps he is moving to Brampton?

#305 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.22.18 at 4:10 pm

@#298 Whining Troll

You’re embarrassing yourself.

#306 Mark on 02.22.18 at 4:10 pm

“I know about my own condo’s number every year from BC Assessment.”

Yeah BC assessment. Notoriously unreliable. All they do is take the Realtor numbers and multiply. No sales mix or constant quality adjustments.

That’s the problem with RE bubbles and people doing self-assessments of their property’s “value” based on what they read in the newspapers. It leads to some dramatically false conclusions as to actual resale market value, especially when it is well known that the onslaught of new supply, particularly in the luxury segment, has shifted average selling prices (but not sequential prices on individual identical units) significantly.

Also, the Realtor stats after the 2013 apex have a significant amount of bad data incorporated into them, the result of double counting of transactions, as well as transactions between related entities improperly reported as arms-length sales. In other words, many of the “landlord families” which have been hoarding units, 20-30+ at a time, have been passing properties between themselves at ever-increasing “valuations”, using tax-avoiding schemas such as ‘assignment flipping’, simply to create the allusion of rising value in an otherwise flat market. To maintain the confidence of their financiers. Such enhanced pricing is not generally available between arms-length entities such as “Joe Blow” looking to sell property.

Personally I suggest you listen to Ross Kay on TalkDigitalNetwork some time. He goes over, in depth, many of the ways in which lay people, and even Realtors, improperly apply statistics and come to some spectacularly erroneous conclusions concerning the Vancouver/Toronto RE markets. Of course, the old adage, ‘It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it’ is highly applicable here.

#307 James on 02.22.18 at 4:11 pm

All apologies to Brampton. Sorry nice town……..

#308 Stan Brooks on 02.22.18 at 4:20 pm

#223 Chico on 02.22.18 at 9:23 am

I’ve never been one of those “Canada is the best!” types, but something about SCM calling Canada a shithole made me want to dress up in the flag and chug maple syrup while beating him with my seal club.

Good riddance.

———————————————————-

I agree. We have lots of problems, and will always have problems as a country. SCM and Stan Brooks made me think about our country in a new way, so in some ways I’m glad for the idiotic things they said.

Anyone can whine and yell that the sky is falling, or blame some random group, city, political party for their problems, or they can get busy and do something about solving the problems.

I’ll try to get my hands on a seal club so I can be prepared for the next SCM/Stan Brooks/”Winnipeg stole my youth” type of poster :)

——————————–

Stunning. Absolutely mind-blowing brainwashing.
This goes into my book. IQ of 78?

You have no idea of the amount of schadenfreude that will be unleashed on my part when it all hits the fan and you start smelling the fear.

Now I am just collecting information and ideas.
And patently waiting.

#309 Mark on 02.22.18 at 4:21 pm

“I bought a house in 2012 and sold it in 2016 for 20% more. “

Yeah a very small sample size. Houses can go up and down 20% just based on seasonality and on the ordinary randomness of the housing market. Even a coat of paint and some rental furniture can, in some situations, create a significant value-add which would not be attributable to a systemic increase in house prices.

I don’t want to discount your individual experience, but basically to come to the conclusion that 2013 was the peak (after which its mostly been a plateau), there’s two approaches that are valid. A macro approach, using growth in credit, foreign outflows, as well as statistical measures of the sales mix, etc. This is the approach I mostly use in analysis. Or the micro approach, which Ross Kay et al use, which is based on analyzing large numbers of individual transactions. Both methods, independently, work out fairly well, and basically come to the same conclusion, that 2013 marked the peak, with the Minister of Finance’s crackdown at the CMHC in Budget 2013 being a pivotal and landmark event.

#310 Smoking Man on 02.22.18 at 4:32 pm

#281 Sideshow Rob on 02.22.18 at 2:04 pm
“Is/was SCM actually our Prime Minister????”

I doubt it. SCM may be very naive but s/he seems to have an IQ above room temperature
…..
Having good writing skills means nothing.
It’s what’s between the ears that counts.
I don’t think she was even in double digets.
She’s expressed that many times over with elaqent skills.

#311 paul on 02.22.18 at 4:34 pm

#298 Re-read #58 and ask yourself what in the world did I say that was bannable? – SCM on 02.22.18 at 3:42 pm

GONE
——————————————————————–
You need to ask Garth, he’s not saying and he is done.
So quit embarrassing yourself. It’s making me feel uncomfortable.

#312 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 02.22.18 at 4:51 pm

#299 A J

Perhaps feminism is a symptom rather than a cause of societal collapse. Historically though, feminist societies exist only for short spans at the end of empires, as J. D. Unwin observed. Regardless of the cause, our society will soon be changing.

#313 Duke on 02.22.18 at 4:55 pm

#302 Stan Brooks on 02.22.18 at 4:06 pm
#300 SimplyPut7 on 02.22.18 at 3:49 pm
#273 SimplyPut7 on 02.22.18 at 1:07 pm

Also, I would hate to be in the newer built homes bought at peak FOMO, knowing my family could have been in a nicer home for less money if I had just waited a year.

https://www.rew.ca/properties/N4043540/86-arianna-crescent-vaughan-on

Look at the bathroom sink and faucet, for 1.288 million I expect something a bit nicer than that.

Maybe it’s a bad angle but the area available for the kitchen stove and fridge look like they would only fit appliances found in small apartments in Toronto.

————————————

This thingy that they call ‘townhouse’ is not worth even 250 k in my mind considering the location.

And it called ‘luxurious’. sure. super crappy kitchen.

OMG. This piece of work is not worth even 20 % of the announced price.

Gave me a good laugh.

==============

Stan, I am with you. This townhouse is barely worth $300k. 17ft frontage? That is 2/3 size of my garage. What a crap.

#314 maxx on 02.22.18 at 5:45 pm

#278 Ray on 02.22.18 at 1:59 pm

“Is it me or is this one of the most pathetic pictures seen. What is T2 trying to do? Does he believe imitation is flattery? What happened to serious respectfulness. This is a joke. I would be insulted if another “World Leader” dressed up as a Mountie to address Parliament. Does T2 think he has to this because when it comes to serious negotiations, “he’s got nothing”? As a Canadian, I am insulted that our “Leader “ would steep so low.
http://nationalpost.com/news/canada/some-people-are-rolling-their-eyes-at-the-trudeau-familys-extra-fashion-choices-in-india

It’s not you, and it is.

I’d love to know how it’s even possible for the PMO to come up with such badly assembled diplomatic dross.
At such enormous cost to us.

What a global laughing stock this puerile SOX team is to have assembled and delivered such an uproarious train-wreck of diplomacy.

From sartorial idiocy (who’s brilliant fantasy was that?) on a scale that makes toes curl around the globe, to the twits-for-brains stick-handling the dinner et selfie guest list, it is obvious that the Canadian taxpayer did not get value. Not even close. Quite the opposite, this gong show of inexperience has cost Canada dearly……..TMWOT, this farce has essentially eclipsed our winter olympians in msm.

Way to go, Trudope! Kumbaya!!!

If it weren’t so pathetic, it would be hysterical.

Canadians should put together a report card, dashboard-style, updated at each tax-sucking “official” voyage, with grades categorized by country visited/insulted and see how that likely influences Canada’s economy?

Philippines (F)
China (F)
India (-F)
USA (TBD)

#315 Newcomer on 02.22.18 at 5:47 pm

#203 Howard on 02.22.18 at 6:52 am
……….
But the absolute increase is significant for a city hemmed in by the sea, the mountains, and the US border.
———

The geography is not actually significant. The ALR is constraining but the CoV itself is littered with car dealerships storage facilities and once you get out of the CoV it’s downright desolate. One of the things you notice about Vancouver when you come here from a large city is how sparse and empty it is — it’s one of its charms. You could easily double the population. We have less than a tenth of the population density of the five boroughs of New York. There is also enough for many more millions in Abbotsford/Chilliwack if, that is, you could convince millions of people to move to Abbotsford or Chilliwack.

#316 A J on 02.22.18 at 6:00 pm

#312 Democracy Is Mob Rule

Yes for sure. That we can agree on.