‘We lost’

“I just wrote a first blog post,” says Matt, the successful video gamer-engineer guy, “called ‘So Long, Toronto’. I realize you may be the only Canadian who reads it. If you find anything worth quoting or mentioning in your blog, it’s all good with me. If not, that’s cool too.”

Matt’s blog is worthy, and you can read it here. “The battle to make it in Toronto lasted 7 years,” he writes. “At last, it is over: we lost. Time to retreat.”

So the Millennial, his spouse and his child are on the road from the Big Smoke to Quebec City (a town of almost a million where the average house price is $286,000.)

“We took a step-back. Are we trying to fight a battle we can’t win? Is it even worth fighting this battle? Why not move to Quebec, where houses are much cheaper?

  • The mortgage on a detached house would be $700-$1400 per month.
  • Government subsidized private schools for under $6000 a year.
  • Montessori for $800 per month or daycare for $14 a day.

Taxes are higher, but wow, the balance sheet certainly looks better! Off we go. We’re out of here.”

How did Toronto eat Matt? Simple. Real estate. Can’t buy where he wants. Can’t rent what he wants. Prices are insane while demand seems insatiable. As part of a cohort that intensely wants an urban lifestyle, hates commuting, disdains the burbs yet can no longer afford a SFH near work, he hit the wall. Either stay, get screwed over and Hoovered clean, or split and find a life elsewhere.

In light of today’s all-housing-all-the-time BC budget and the pissy discussion we had on this site yesterday, Matt’s first blog post has relevance. The moister generation has reached a key moment, now entering family-formation, root-sinking years, wanting to turn into their parents but economically prevented from doing so. The lashing out has been epic – at politicians, realtors, central bankers, immigrants, Boomers, temporary foreign workers, bankers, regulators and, of course, the Chinese.

And, yes, facts are facts. Millennials in general are not on a roll. People now in their early thirties (says the Resolution Foundaton) earn 4% less than GenXers did at the same age. In the UK it’s reported that Mills have a 33% homeownership rate compared to 60% for Boomers then. In the US, the ownership rate among those under 35 has just risen to 36% (from 34.7%), but still pales compared to their parents’ experience.

The report calls it, “a ‘boom and bust’ cycle where significant generation-on-generation gains for older generations have come to a stop for younger people.” Another report (also British) found tech workers in London are now ‘Generation Rent’ and by 2025 more than half of all people under 40 will be tenants.

In Canada we’re off to a dismal start. Stats Canada reports 35% of those aged 20 to 34 are living with their parents (up from 30% two decades ago) – unprecedented. In Toronto the proportion of musty moister basement dwellers surges, to almost 48%. Concurrently, household formation is falling – down from almost 50% (for this age group) to about 42%.

So, there ya go. In Canada’s two bubble cities, where a million bucks buys crap, saving a down payments is impossible, rents are escalating, incomes are pedestrian and having a kid in a 600-foot apartment is a real bad idea, it’s fight, flight or capitulate.

Meanwhile a University of Alberta researcher spent time proving the obvious: the longer the Mills stay with mom, afraid to seek their own shelter, the more the family is debilitated. Michelle Maroto concluded that parents’ financial assets and savings were reduced by about a quarter when adult children refused to go. They don’t get married. No children. No independent home. Just more school and another degree.

So, clearly, the easily-offended, gender-sensitive, over-educated, socially-engineered lefties we call Millennials got the short straw. Growing up in a low-rate, low-growth, low-inflation world they have to contend with inflated asset prices (thanks to cheap money) and deflated incomes (thanks to a slow recovery). Too bad. But moaning won’t fix it. Or voting NDP. Or blaming yellow people. Or more taxes.

Real estate values will inevitably moderate as the cost of money rises and household debt goes from critical to moronic. But nobody should expect 40% declines in YVR or the GTA, especially in the urban areas always in demand. Even at that level, most people would find it unattainable without committing 100% of their net worth to a single asset. Unwise.

Matt, on the other hand, is a genius. Quebec City. Halifax. Kingston. Montreal. London. Edmonton. Nanaimo. Regina. Charlottetown.

Move. Or shut up.

325 comments ↓

#1 dakkie on 02.20.18 at 4:42 pm

Deja vu – Canada’s Housing Market looks a lot like US prior to collapse

http://investmentwatchblog.com/deja-vu-canadas-housing-market-looks-a-lot-like-us-prior-to-collapse/

#2 Jeff on 02.20.18 at 4:46 pm

This is not gonna end well.

#3 SCD on 02.20.18 at 4:46 pm

Good for Matt, great solution to the problem. Hopefully more people will adopt that strategy.

#4 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.20.18 at 4:47 pm

Canadian life is so sad to be honest. It’s downright tragic. In order to have any shot at being able to afford a home and have some money left over, you have to live on the edge of the friggen known world in arctic tundra conditions where there are points in the year where Mars is literally warmer. Getting out of Toronto and Vancouver is of course good advice, but where the hell are you going to go in this frozen hellhole? Regina? Thunder Bay? Winnipeg? All I see is sh*thole, sh*thole, sh*thole. What an awful place to live. Just get the hell out if you can. Life is too short to waste it in this god forsaken hellhole.

A lot of you ranted and raved yesterday about conservative pseudo-intellectual Professor Kermit the Frog JP. Didn’t he recently move to Southern California? I thought I heard that in one of his interviews. He sure as hell isn’t teaching at U of T anymore. Wayne Gretzky’s been there since 1988. Smokey will be there until he gets deported.

It seems the Canadian Dream is alive and well… in beautiful, blue, liberal, coastal elite California.

Amazing what liberal Democrats can achieve when crazy Republicans have no power.

Jerry Brown’s Legacy: A $6.1 Billion Budget Surplus in California
https://www.wsj.com/articles/jerry-browns-legacy-a-6-1-billion-budget-surplus-in-california-1515624022

#5 KLNR on 02.20.18 at 4:48 pm

Wise move. Carrying that much debt is way to much stress for a family. I’d do the same if I couldn’t afford TO.

#6 Bilious Festeroni on 02.20.18 at 4:49 pm

We did the same thing. My job is based in the big city, and we moved to a small town where I work from home. Our housing costs are approximately half what they were, we’re slaying the savings and the ocean is 5 minutes away. I can think of at least 20 of our friends (late 30’s) who did the same thing once they had children. Those who have portable jobs (nurses, teachers, trades, tech, etc.) are lucky, in that their income is portable. For white collar workers, this is even more true with a fast internet connection. Our gain is the city’s loss. It’s always a fool’s game to extrapolate too far, but imagine what a city looks like once all of the young families and the next generation of workers who can…have left. Boring af. So be it, the sword cuts both ways.

#7 mitzerboyakaQueencityKidd on 02.20.18 at 4:55 pm

sunny saskatchewan
it mite be -30 but i gots a heater in my truck

#8 On Point on 02.20.18 at 4:55 pm

Some of the underlying issues that got us here still (our honor system tax reporting on real estate transactions, and different income verification standards for local and foreign/PR mortgages) are still needed. But I wholeheartedly agree with you…people have to be prepared to do something about it. Harass the politicians to do their job or vote with your feet. The world is a big place with so many opportunities.

#9 Joe on 02.20.18 at 4:56 pm

“Move. Or shut up.”

Wow! That’s offensive. I was born in Toronto. I grew up there. No other city in the world will ever be home. I’ve worked hard and make a good salary (higher than the average household income). And I’ve got to tell you, being shut out by a bunch of greedy a-holes is a bitter thing.

#10 Larry1 on 02.20.18 at 4:58 pm

We are out of Van in less than a month. Moving to the beautiful Comox Valley were we got a nice house for less than the price of a one bedroom condo in Van

#11 Nidus on 02.20.18 at 5:01 pm

I moved from Toronto to Regina a little while ago and it is amazingly affordable. People are friendly and have money to spend, probably because they’re not paying a ridiculous amount of money for a shack. My new friends are not like my old friends in Toronto where everyone is pinching every penny when they go out. Restaurants and stores are always busy. I’m glad of the move. Regina is a safe haven for what’s left of the middle class in Canada.

#12 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 02.20.18 at 5:01 pm

The mob has spoken:

http://bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2018/homesbc/2018_Homes_For_BC.pdf

Homes for B.C. – A 30-point plan for housing affordability in British Columbia

#13 Tater on 02.20.18 at 5:02 pm

Toronto average sold price at the peak was 920k. Last month was 736k. We are halfway to the 40% correction and this is before B-20 has kicked in fully (due to pre-approvals).

#14 Bonhomme Carnaval on 02.20.18 at 5:03 pm

Bienvenue à la belle province Matt !

#15 A J on 02.20.18 at 5:06 pm

Matt, if you’re reading this, very good blog post. I completely relate to everything you said. Everything. I’m in a different situation because I don’t have kids. It makes everything so much more complicated and expensive. But there is no future here for people with kids on a moderate income. Every single person I know with kids lives in the suburbs and commutes over an hour each way a day. Whether on the GO train, or by car. It’s just not possible to make it here as a middle class person with children. If I had kids, I would hightail it out of here as well. It’s depressing to think that people like you have to leave. Creative and smart people building a family no longer have a place in Toronto. It’s sad that the city is losing so many promising young people because of speculative greed and FOMO. Also, I can relate to your situation, in that every single person I know my age who bought a house recently, had help. Every single one. I pried to get that info because I was flabbergasted. There are people at my work who are younger than me, making the same salary, buying expensive houses. I’m like….”WTF? How?” When I started asking questions, they told me their parents gave them money to help with their purchase. It’s just a cycle over and over. People who cannot afford houses, buying them with help, jacking up the prices, yadda, yadda. People like us just don’t stand a chance. We’ll just keep spinning our tires in this city, and going nowhere. I’m personally not staying forever. I’m just trying to figure out what to do next. As I said in the comments of yesterday’s post, I have a very good job in Toronto. Which I adore. It’s hard to give up. But, I feel myself being lulled away day by day. You aren’t alone. I wish you luck in Quebec. Toronto will miss a family like yours. I’m sorry that it came to you being pushed out. It’s a huge shame and loss.

#16 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.20.18 at 5:08 pm

Hey Garth, I’ve been meaning to ask… Can I get an upgrade to 5 posts per thread please? I’ve been on such good behavior lately, you must admit. Should I not be judged on my hundreds of top quality insightful comments, rather than 1 bad picture? I think so.

I enjoy having a back and forth with my boomer compatriots but I can’t do that on these stifling free speech restrictions.

No need to call for a vote (I’m tired of winning), I trust you to make the right call (don’t ban me pls).

Sincerely,

Screwed Canadian Millenial

#17 Mike on 02.20.18 at 5:12 pm

.

Okay.

Now we have changed narrative from crash to soft landing to just move out……

#18 Mike in Edm on 02.20.18 at 5:13 pm

What’s a good rate to be shooting for right now (variable and fixed) for a couple that is buying way under what they can afford (only about 2.5x their combined income), both with a very good to excellent credit rating, assets worth more than the house, and can do anywhere from a 5-20% down payment?

#19 Lee on 02.20.18 at 5:17 pm

Tater,

Try to find something liveable for a family of 4 in a deecnt part of Toronto for $736,000. All you’ll get is a 500-600 foot condo with maybe one parking spot.

#20 Lost...but not leased on 02.20.18 at 5:20 pm

BC 2018 budget announced

Clearly NDP didn’t read Garth’s last post

…whodduh thunk?

#21 Stan Brooks on 02.20.18 at 5:20 pm

I guess Matt is irrelevant in the big scheme of things.

But hey, socks boy strikes again:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/indian-companies-tell-trudeau-invest-112213393.html

(loo at the intelligence on his face and read the comments)

investing 750 millions in India while India ‘invests’ 250 millions here. Nobody from the Indian government, even a minister greeted him.

But his finance minister is chasing now servers for their tips and asking to pay their fair share. No loopholes for you, sorry. Only for them.

No word of T2 paying back the private vacation he and his family took. It seems he is having another one at the moment. Leftist media in orgasmic euphoria of the outstanding success.

—————————-

Matt just represent a whole generation of not-needed Canadians. Politicians do not care that he can not afford to live decent life with his family.
Or that people can not afford kids. They plan on importing 65 million more immigrants to serve as cheap labour camp for US.

They will import TFW, government announced extension of the program and short path to issuing visas despite the fact that hundreds of thousands of young Canadians with engineering degree stand no chance of ever finding a job. Volunteer the elite says, work for no pay.

The elite thinks we are too expensive.

People who think moaning will not help are wrong.

We will see pitchforks at some point.

——————————–

BTW Matt, you are ‘loosing’ short term.
In mid to long term, 60 % of the jobs in GTA will be gone.

Would you like to be stuck in a ghetto with huge mortgage and no job? With doctors unable to afford mortgages and soon rent in big Canadian cities who will provide services?

I hate to say it but Matt, man up and move on.
Think also about moving south/out. One of the pros is that your taxes and cost of living will be much lower and pay check much bigger.

In case you decide to stay, consider this:

That healthcare that you take for granted might soon turn out to be a dream.

And you will find no escape from taxes.
You will be asked to support baby boomers living in their mansions while you will have difficulties renting.
wild bill will tell you how rich you are and how much more you need to pay in taxes /they call it fair share.

You will be paying somebody else’s debt – all levels of government and will provide for retirement and benefits of all government workers.

Your pension will be indexed at 1.1 % while inflation is at 6-8.

Your kids if you are are lucky to raise them will never have a home. Why should they? It is not a right, remember. It is a privilege and you are not a privileged one.
Gender change could help, who knows what is in the bag of the new budget.

As George Carlin said: It is a ridged game, big boys club and you are not one of them.

———————————

And Matt, don’t expect empathy (shut up and move on…)
Remember though not to show any when the time comes.

#22 SimplyPut7 on 02.20.18 at 5:22 pm

NDP cracks down on speculators:

* A new, province-wide “speculation tax,” focused on vacant homes. The tax will be 2 per cent of the assessed value of properties in 2019.

* The increase of the foreign buyers from 15 to 20 per cent, and the expansion of the tax to properties in other major municipal areas in B.C. outside Metro Vancouver.

*An increase of the property transfer tax for homes sold over $3 million from three per cent to five percent.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/1st-budget-by-ndp-government-promises-billions-more-in-both-spending-and-tax-revenue-1.4543544

Tax, tax & more tax. BC is now an accountant’s promised land. – Garth

#23 TheDood on 02.20.18 at 5:23 pm

#17 Mike on 02.20.18 at 5:12 pm
.

Okay.

Now we have changed narrative from crash to soft landing to just move out……
________________________________________

No, narrative has not changed at all. Save, invest 60/40, and pay yourself FIRST. Buy assets, like real estate, ONLY if you can afford it AFTER you’ve paid yourself.

#24 Suede on 02.20.18 at 5:27 pm

Vancouver is awesome.

Look at the snow capped mountains on this beautiful clear sky kind of day.

That’s worth 15x family income right there.

Mortgage underwriting is going through the roof today after 4 days of snow and 12 weeks of straight rain before that.

#25 Nik on 02.20.18 at 5:27 pm

pathetic advice from a not-so pathetic blog! if moving was so easy we wouldn’t have this bubble to begin with. even if my job allows me to work from home it becomes challenging if i lose it or want to just change jobs as smaller job markets dont have a ton of decent paying jobs. Also, as an immigrant smaller cities that lack diversity makes for a sucky life.

Vancouver is the only major center that allows for faceless entities to buy up housing without providing source of income. This is allowing illicit (fentanyl laced) currency and funds from the chinese housing bubble to be directed here and compete with local, tax paid, hard earned CAD.

Garth-Rejecting government and policy intervention and allowing markets to sort out everything is the worst solution ever. your outlook is getting outdated by the day!

When did governments ever fix housing? – Garth

#26 Brian on 02.20.18 at 5:29 pm

I did the same 2 years ago with our 2nd child on the way, except out in BC. Vancouver to Trail, was lucky that my company operates here and paid for a move on promotion. Bought a house for 10% the cost of a detached in YVR. A few pluses and minuses as there is with any town, but at least I can now fill up my TFSA and the kids RESP’s on my average income.

#27 Blutterfy on 02.20.18 at 5:29 pm

So Edmonton’s RE market is good enough to buy right now? I’ve seen $10,000 come off a (originally priced) $330,000 townhouse just in the last 4 weeks! I thought we are just starting this crash? That the car hasn’t burned yet? Am I wrong?

#28 Rob Dog on 02.20.18 at 5:31 pm

Garth….here in Nanaimo we’ve been bombarded by evacuees from the Vancouver crisis! 500k won’t get much here anymore. But for the owner selling in Vancouver moving to Nan, you can cash in and buy a brand new place for less than half. Put the rest in the bank! Its like a no brainer!

#29 Howard on 02.20.18 at 5:34 pm

Toronto condos still in fire.

Friend of mine put his d/t TO condo on the market two days ago. 25 Cole Street in Regeant Park, Dundas & Parliament area. 1 bdrm + den. List price $499K. Sold in 12 hours. Buyer was local.

#30 TheSpangler on 02.20.18 at 5:35 pm

#28 Rob Dog on 02.20.18 at 5:31 pm
Garth….here in Nanaimo we’ve been bombarded by evacuees from the Vancouver crisis! 500k won’t get much here anymore. But for the owner selling in Vancouver moving to Nan, you can cash in and buy a brand new place for less than half. Put the rest in the bank! Its like a no brainer!

———–

Bingo, been seeing this effect in a lot of places.

#31 Howard on 02.20.18 at 5:36 pm

#29 Howard on 02.20.18 at 5:34 pm
Toronto condos still in fire.

——————————

*on fire…

#32 Stan Brooks on 02.20.18 at 5:37 pm

#15 A J on 02.20.18 at 5:06 pm

————————

Move out while you still have a chance, i.e. young and with a future.

It is just a dream, at some point your life will be gone ‘working your dream job’ and facing hardship at old age.

If your live to work, stay (this is how they want you, until of course there is a cheaper, younger alternative of you, then you will be disposed of).

If you work to live, move.

BTW reading Matt’s blog, SCM does not look that extreme. Just more emotional.

I guess we never learnt the lesson of shutting up and eating cake when there is no bread.

Like the french villa guy wants us to.

#33 Toronto is a Bad Place for MEN! on 02.20.18 at 5:42 pm

Toronto is bad for your health, your social life and your dating life.

If you don’t own Italian sports cars from Avenue Road dealerships, and also own a Lakefront condo where you have a Debit card that can access at least $5 Million dollars, no woman in Toronto will even look at you, and if you try to talk to them, they will tell the cops that you are harassing her and making her feel uncomfortable.

#34 Justin on 02.20.18 at 5:42 pm

I could not agree more! Move or shut-up. I don’t understand why people from big cities are so afraid of moving.

#35 Toronto is a Bad Place! on 02.20.18 at 5:45 pm

MGTOW is huge in Toronto. Lots of Toronto men are secretly and quietly planning their sweet escape out of Toronto for good.

You don’t know how bad it is for men in Toronto if they aren’t millionaires or celebrities that support social justice.

I wouldn’t even let my worst enemy set foot in Toronto, because the feminist movement will lead any average man into personal crisis and suffering that eventually leads to self-destruction. The majority of fem supporters hate men and they are actively engaged in warfare against men.

#36 Peter on 02.20.18 at 5:46 pm

#22 SimplyPut7
I don’t see the policies behind the “NDP cracks down on speculators” headline having an immediate effect on currently senseless under $1 million condo market in YVR. Perhaps deliberately so, as the NDP does draw support those indebted millennial owners. Increasing the empty homes toll & an increase in tax on homes over $3m is smoke and mirrors and spares any pain to their base. The real-state edifice will come tumbling down of course; the current NDP budget just won’t be the catalyst.

#37 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 02.20.18 at 5:47 pm

Tax, tax & more tax. BC is now an accountant’s promised land. – Garth

——————–

Accounting is a man-made activity designed to create jobs out of thin air and reduce unemployment. It is a wealth re-distribution method. The NDP likes wealth redistribution.

#38 Fake News Again on 02.20.18 at 5:48 pm

20% racism tax brought into most of BC……..lets see what happens as it pertains to foreign money laundering.

#39 Toronto is a Bad Place on 02.20.18 at 5:48 pm

The similarities between the dating market and real estate markets in Toronto is that they are all over-inflated in BUBBLES! Overpriced everything in Toronto! Stay far away from that feminist city.

#40 TalkingPie on 02.20.18 at 5:52 pm

I’m afraid that people will catch on to Quebec. Thankfully for us, the language and cultural barrier has kept many Canadians from considering it so far.

Girlfriend and I are shopping for our first house out in the Montreal suburbs. Granted, it’s further out from the city than where I grew up (the West Island has gotten to be quite expensive), but a livable commute, 20,000 sq ft lot, and a nice bungalow with garage can still be found for under $400,000. University is dirt cheap – about $3,000/year, and most degrees are done in three years thanks to the (free) CEGEP system. Cheap Hydro and car insurance. Culture can be found in abundance in the cities – Montreal or Quebec City – and nature and small-time charm are a short drive away.

If you live in downtown Montreal, car ownership is entirely optional. Rent control is universal and tenants have strong rights. I’m currently living in a 1 bedroom on the top floor of a new, professionally-managed concrete construction with indoor parking and nice view, 3 km from the downtown core for $1,200/month.

If you’re living unmarried with your squeeze, common law status is actually rational and fair – should you split up, you each keep what you came in with and divide everything else up according to who put what in.

And unless you’re in that rare Toronto percentage of workers who are making really big bank, average salaries here are within a couple of percentage points of Toronto’s.

#41 Howard on 02.20.18 at 5:59 pm

Fair advice Garth, but I wonder why more Boomers in YYZ and YVR don’t do the same? Cash out their house lottery ticket and move to one of the cities you mentioned. They can pay cash for a new home and have plenty left over to winter down south a few months every year until they either die or enter long term care.

#42 Zapstrap on 02.20.18 at 6:02 pm

Isn’t that what the burbs used to be for?

#43 Fuzzy Camel on 02.20.18 at 6:07 pm

Me and my wife are already making plans to be out of Ontario in another year or two. East coast or the US, either one is better than this mess.

What caused the mess? 0.5% interest rates + Places to Grow Act + 300,000 immigrants/year.

Trudeau and his leftist loonies can’t stop us from leaving, we don’t all want to live in a 600 sq-ft condo the rest of our lives.

#44 Andre on 02.20.18 at 6:08 pm

Garth,

I know it is not a fortune teller blog but why an adjusted for inflation 40% decline is not a possible outcome?

Thanks

Andre

#45 Karma on 02.20.18 at 6:10 pm

BC Budget 2018 PDF

http://bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2018/homesbc/2018_Homes_For_BC.pdf

#46 BK on 02.20.18 at 6:10 pm

So let me get this straight…

This will end well for current homeowners.

Prices will not budge much

Young people are screwed

Move to a dump w/
No family
No friends
No job
No plan

I thought this was all about living life and being happy???

Sure doesn’t sound like it to me.

#47 Stan Brooks on 02.20.18 at 6:12 pm

And no, Toronto will not be the new Amazon headquarter location.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-20/did-amazon-employees-unwittingly-reveal-location-hq2

#48 Why Bother on 02.20.18 at 6:12 pm

So if a 40% price correction will not materialize in YVR or the GTA, then what was the point of outlining the pitfalls of high priced real estate in these urban centers for 10 years?

Diverting people into balanced portfolios from real estate in the name of ‘balance’ has not yielded returns anywhere close to leveraged real estate appreciation over 10 years.

If people should just shut up and leave their cities, it would have been much better to have told people to have surrendered 10 years ago instead of chastizing a generation or providing false hope that anything would change.

Prices have gone up 300% in Vancouver over the last decade as warning after warning came about rising interest rates, mortgage changes like B20, downpayment changes, amortization changes and so on. Each new change was supposed to herald the demise of the market.

Why bother raising the red flag when there might be a little 10 or 20% correction?

#49 Nemesis on 02.20.18 at 6:16 pm

#TuesdayMischief,Or… #TheWayBackMachineDisagrees

“When did governments ever fix housing?” – HistoricallyChallengedGarth

From this:

https://mashable.com/2015/09/17/hoovervilles/#7Ud5xnOiGsqg

To This:

https://fdrlibrary.org/housing

#50 Karma on 02.20.18 at 6:18 pm

BC Budget 2018 media lock-up presentation:

https://youtu.be/5aHO1bnhQrM

#51 MF on 02.20.18 at 6:21 pm

So we have Garth admitting millennials in the GTA/GVR have it harder than their parents? Am I reading this right?

I guess I agree with that.

The real value in today’s post is the realization that Gen X had it better too. They like to creep in the shadows here, coming out rarely to brag about their RE purchases (helped out by ZIRP and nothing else) then slide back quietly.

They will cite the 90’s recessions as their low point, but ignore that the early 2000’s were the last chance to find a decent paying position that was permanent with benefits, and eventually buy RE.

A time that corresponded to their child formation years.

My observations is that this group is the most delusional and house horny of them all.

MF

#52 Timmy on 02.20.18 at 6:26 pm

So let’s just keep focusing on real estate as an investment so people can buy and speculate on multiple properties, actively market our real estate for foreigners, and can launder money through real estate, too bad if people have to rent or live with their parents, after all, according to Garth, market forces should rule, we don’t have a right to housing.

#53 jim on 02.20.18 at 6:26 pm

“Quebec City. Halifax. Kingston. Montreal. London. Edmonton. Nanaimo. Regina. Charlottetown.”

Ummm, no.

Have you looked at prices in some of these areas lately? Let’s take Nanaimo. It used to be a hard knuckle, blue collar town with sketchy areas around the small downtown waterfront. This is not a high class city.

Prices? Very high by price/rent and price/income ratios.

My wife and I were looking on that primitive MLS site the other day, laughing our butts off at prices on Vancouver Island.

Compare prices in Nanaimo to a similar city in WA or OR. Now compare Kamloops to Spokane. Edmonton to a city in ND or SD.

Canadian real estate is way out of whack in those areas. They might not be at Vancouver/Toronto levels, but the affordability just isn’t there.

#54 MF on 02.20.18 at 6:27 pm

#199 Howard on 02.20.18 at 12:31 pm
#198 Fed on 02.20.18 at 12:17 pm

“Hey Garth,

I heard FED changed course again.
QT is now QE again, because the mini crash spooked them allegedly.
Buying up 16B assets.

————————————–

If anyone dismissed the existence of a Plunge Protection Team, well there you have it. It’s become almost illegal for the stock market to decline.”

-Reposting an insightful post^

Can’t have stocks go down can we??? UP UP UP. Just like RE here in Canada.

They are a joke, and we all know it. The DOW should be at about 16,000.00 realistically. And bond yields should be about 5%.

MF

#55 TurnerNation on 02.20.18 at 6:27 pm

Yup Springtime and a young man’s thoughts turn to Shove.
(Take this house and…. it)

#56 Fruit Vendor on 02.20.18 at 6:28 pm

Well, talk about pooched, the BC Government just announced their 2018 budget. Taxes and more taxes as I see it. Free medical in a year or so, MSP gone, off loaded to business who will of course deduct premiums from employees, oh another layer of compliance monitoring. By the way, more teachers, social workers etc. So who is their employer, where does that employer get their money. Carbon tax increase, watch gas go up $.20 per litre. Now the housing transfer tax increase for houses over 3 million in Vancouver, well there are a lot of those. I could go on, but I hope I have made my point. There is a limit on those working and paying taxes, I am saying we are past that point.

#57 Gimme Shelter on 02.20.18 at 6:29 pm

I’ve been saying it for at least a year – Edmonton or Montreal. I could care less about the west coast – the price of admission is way to high and I don’t see it coming down by 20-30% which is what we need to buy a somewhat decent home here in Victoria. Can’t convince my other half though.

#58 morrey on 02.20.18 at 6:29 pm

Saskatoon

#59 tccontrarian on 02.20.18 at 6:31 pm

“Real estate values will inevitably moderate as the cost of money rises and household debt goes from critical to moronic. But nobody should expect 40% declines in YVR or the GTA, especially in the urban areas always in demand.” -GT
========================================
But if this ‘demand’ is from ‘cheap money’ (which is ending), the very same ‘demand’ will have to diminish proportionately.
If a 40%+ decline doesn’t happen, then you’re implying that “it’s different this time”- which you also proclaim that it isn’t (ever).
From peak to trough, I expect 50-65% decline – which makes me a ‘nobody’, I guess.
Ditto for the Dow/Nasdaq/ etc… , by the way.

I’d rather be a ‘nobody’ and right, than a ‘somebody’ who’s wrong. Financially speaking, it’s way more fun (and profitable).

TCC

#60 S.Bby on 02.20.18 at 6:33 pm

“They should move to Fort St. John”
That’s what Christy Clark said.
And then look what happened to her…

#61 Investx on 02.20.18 at 6:34 pm

SCM: “pseudo-intellectual Professor Kermit the Frog JP.”

That’s why Millennials like SCM are having a tough time in life. They can’t accept science and facts because the truth hurts.

Back to your Safe Space.

#62 jim on 02.20.18 at 6:35 pm

As an aside,

I’ve been getting hit with pings from Canadian recruiters trying to lure back US-based Canadians with advanced degrees in CS/EE.

It’s incredibly amusing to me to interact with these people.

There was one fellow in Vancouver who was trying to convince me that Vancouver companies would pay Seattle or Silicon Valley wages. (Salary sites like glassdoor/paysa/etc d NOT back him up).

Even if true, I countered, you’d be taking a minimum 15% hit on taxes, eating massive increases in living costs, and facing an unaffordable housing market.

True, he said… housing can be high, but high prices mean high reward. You can sell your house for more money later.

I was kind of stunned. Apparently ‘buy high go higher’ is the new mantra for investment in Canadian real estate.

Vancouver is even less affordable than Silicon Valley, so I fail to see how they hope to lure people away from the USA.

#63 morrey on 02.20.18 at 6:35 pm

#40 Why Bother
congratulations! you have awoken from your deep sleep!

over 2 yrs ago my sons purchased townhomes in the burbs of Vancouver. They are now looking at SDH a bit further out, but they have a solid down-payment.

Look out kid/
They keep it all hid

#64 Ron on 02.20.18 at 6:37 pm

Billy Joel sang it best over 40 years ago (Movin’ Out):

‘Who needs a house out in Hackensack (Etobicoke?, Whitby?) Is that all you get for your money?’

´If that’s moving up, then I’m…moving out’

#65 MF on 02.20.18 at 6:37 pm

#29 Howard on 02.20.18 at 5:34 pm

We all know that. I don’t believe anyone who says Toronto is “correcting”. Zero chance.

Rent still a waste, too.

MF

#66 B Mac on 02.20.18 at 6:38 pm

Move to Cape Breton NS and get a FREE business complete with patients (if you have the right skills) http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/cape-breton-orthopedic-clinic-to-be-given-away-for-free-1.4543487
Get there before all the americans escaping Trump.

#67 Madcat on 02.20.18 at 6:44 pm

I’m very pleased with the NDP’s 30 point housing plan. :)

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.20.18 at 6:44 pm

@#5 Screwed Canadian Millenial

So Cali is the promised land according to you?
Hate to break it to you but.
You missed the boat by about 150 years.

Oh and Jerry Brown’s $6 billion dollars surplus?
Bwahahahahahahahaha

California Employees Pension fund
http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/dan-walters/article148181774.html&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjcpPTk1bXZAhUM_mMKHXCfDbUQFgg3MAY&usg=AOvVaw1TA2V4kEns3eMSMWeuL7Lu

I could go on but.
Suffice to say if you move to Cali…..get a gun permit.

#69 wallflower on 02.20.18 at 6:44 pm

Hearing people are walking from their new-build condos “bought” in 2015… builder gonna go bankrupt? What percentage of “walking” can a builder take? (Who cares; rhetorical. Builders know their data and know percentage of specuvesting that has been going on.)

The winds of change are blowing but the mop up won’t start til 2020.

#70 Asterix1 on 02.20.18 at 6:47 pm

#29 Howard on 02.20.18 at 5:34 pm
Regeant Park, Dundas & Parliament area.
1 bdrm + den. List price $499K.
Buyer was local.
____________________________________________

I would say, buyer was loco!

Condos are next on the chopping block. That area is also crap.

Prices in Toronto will continue to fall. Anything is possible, 20%-40% drop from today’s prices.

#71 MF on 02.20.18 at 6:49 pm

#48 Why Bother on 02.20.18 at 6:12 pm

Lots of people share your sentiment. That’s why people take on 500k debt for a condo in the two cities. People should fear debt, theoretically yes, but they don’t because they know that no one else does. They also know interest rates will rise at a glacial pace (if at all) because all central banks have painted themselves into a deep corner and are screwed.

On top of all that the GTA is actually booming. Tons of people everywhere having a good time here. The energy is palpable.

If you buy in a desirable area in the GTA there is little chance of any downturn. Heck, I don’t see any downturn anywhere. It’s only on here where we hear about some supposed correction fantasy, and that’s only after performing mathematical gymnastics like averages, DOM, ranges, sales mix etc. It’s a joke.

I wish I bought earlier. My advice is still buy if you can (hurts but its true).

MF

#72 love it on 02.20.18 at 6:51 pm

Another report (also British) found tech workers in London are now ‘Generation Rent’ and by 2025 more than half of all people under 40 will be tenants.

……….

likely a similar scenario in the GTA. My renting properties are looking sweet

#73 Axehead on 02.20.18 at 6:52 pm

Or how about moving to a small town? Outside of any of those regions Garth mentioned. I brought my kids up in a small town and enjoyed low cost for housing, a more casual lifestyle where you get to know your neighbors. Much easier now with the ability to work remotely. There’s always an answer if you only delve into being a contrarian and don’t follow the crowd.

#74 Jake the snake on 02.20.18 at 7:01 pm

#17 Mike on 02.20.18 at 5:12 pm
.

Okay.

Now we have changed narrative from crash to soft landing to just move out……

————————————–
And you gotta love the flexibility of renting. How much has rent gone up 47%!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-average-asking-monthly-rent-september-2017-canada-mortgage-housing-1.4529133

#75 aerozone on 02.20.18 at 7:03 pm

…correct #53 Jim Buddy…
Nanaimo is pretty close now to being
a YVR burb. Two ferry terminals and a
newly stretched tarmac at the airport.
Density and bad traffic coming soon.
I miss the prairies… and the sunshine…

#76 Nanaimo, the gift that keeps on giving! on 02.20.18 at 7:03 pm

We were up 3% in Jan. Let’s go for 30% YoY. And remember, we like foreign buyers on VI. Invest your money, but stay on the mainland. That is, unless you are a biker chick #weforshe

#77 young & foolish on 02.20.18 at 7:05 pm

I agree with Garth about the affordability issue. Low interest rates have driven asset bubbles in many large cities. Big debts all round. Young people are trapped. I for one refuse to buy in this market. Just hope that higher rates don’t incinerate my equity heavy (inclusive of rate reset prefereds) portfolio.

#78 john m on 02.20.18 at 7:07 pm

Canada is a beautiful country,i have spent time in every province and each and every one has something very special…. i would be quite happy to live in any of them. Personally i think living in a traffic,people congested ,price gouging atmosphere is like living in a can with little hope for escape unless your prepared to move and enjoy a life without stress for a smaller income and a lot better standard of living

#79 Editrix on 02.20.18 at 7:10 pm

I work in a similar industry to Matt’s. A co-worker pulled up stakes for Montreal two months ago. It wasn’t the price of real estate that sent him running. He owns a condo that he bought ten years ago, which he is currently renting out while he makes up his mind whether Montreal will be a permanent move. What sent him out was the crowding on the roads and in transit and the cost of, say, a meal out. He also mentioned the disappearance of the character of Toronto neighbourhoods with the condo towers and their glass fronts which house SDMs, Starbucks or nail salons. He now loves the affordability of Montreal and his only complaint is the taxes. Our industry is currently thriving in Montreal and I can see others taking the leap.

#80 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.20.18 at 7:14 pm

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.20.18 at 6:44 pm

I knew it was either going to be you or Smokey who brings up California’s pension. You people are easily programmed lemmings who can’t think for themselves and are trained to just spew talking points without even understanding what you’re talking about. What in the world does that have to do with California’s budget surplus? Nothing. No surprise conservatives have no clue what a budget surplus even is. It’s when government operating revenues exceed expenditures. You wouldn’t know what that is because conservatives think revenues are a myth, a liberal hoax.

California has one of the largest pension funds in the world with well over $300 billion in assets. That has nothing to do with their current budget. You people are effing insane.

>As of June 30, 2014, CalPERS managed the largest public pension fund in the United States, with $300.3 billion in assets

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CalPERS

Yeah they have long-term liabilities. So does every government. Give your head a shake, ZeroHedge is rotting your brain.

Quota. – Garth

#81 Kelsey on 02.20.18 at 7:14 pm

No 40% correction? Is this Garth capitulating as Housing Bear after all these years of torrent gains that defy belief? That’s the kind of contrarian indicator worth taking note of.

#54 MF – I read that too (link below). Basically after fooling around the edges the FED started to actually unwind the balance sheet and the stock market plunged the next week. I wonder how long before they give up the ghost and go back to QE4 under a different name. The exploding deficit created by tax cuts and ever increasing government spending guarantees it sooner rather than later.

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-fed-targets-stock-prices-heres-why/

Other markets may lose 40%. Urban 416 isn’t one of them. – Garth

#82 south burnaby gardener on 02.20.18 at 7:14 pm

Move. Or shut up.
Disappointed in you Garth. Moving is not an option for people who work in teams, who have to have hands on and/or work in teams ie Firmware. The only two areas of the country that offer jobs in *many* fields are GTA and GVRD. Move to the states to work with a start up? Not a great financial plan if you are in your mid 50s or older.

Leave all your friends? I have moved in the past (three provinces and two countries) and made new friends I love making new friends but it does not replace the kind of connection you have with friends of 40 + years.

You talk about the value of time, well spending time with friends and family is one of the best uses of time IMHO.

Some people would love to move out of the GVRD but where they would like to move, you can’t get a GP. Not wise if you have health issues or need to see a specialist more frequently than once a year. Thankfully that does not apply to us, but it does to friends of ours.

We have looked at moving out of the GVRD but discounted the island due to the ferry issues and the cities being too small for our taste in activites and the interior for similar reasons (highway closures/again cities too small). There is no way in hell my spouse is moving to somewhere that is colder/wetter/snowier than the GVRD. We have considered moving to Europe but can’t afford to fly home 8+ times a year to see friends and family.

Everything I have read on a successful happy retirement stresses the importance of connections (friends and family), and activities you enjoy. You appear to be suggesting retired people move to some place where they know no one, where they can’t enjoy any of the activities that make life pleasurable and older working people, move some place where there are no jobs. Unless of course they have a DB pension or are a teacher, nurse, tradesperson, individual coder, uber driver or ?

move or shut up. Not very helpful advice for the overwhelming majority of the population of over 50.

So stay and shut up. You sound like a prisoner in your own mind. – Garth

#83 Pete from St. Cesaire on 02.20.18 at 7:15 pm

#40: I’m afraid that people will catch on to Quebec. Thankfully for us, the language and cultural barrier has kept many Canadians from considering it so far.
————————————————————————-
Yes, I fear that also. It wouldn’t take too much for a big bubble to be created here too; especially in Montreal. I want things to stay the way they are; everyone having lots of discretionary income after their rent or mortgage is paid. Life is good here. Folks from T.O., Ottawa and Van can’t seem to figure out how we do it. No housing bubble, that’s the big secret.

#84 wow on 02.20.18 at 7:16 pm

NDP cracks down on speculators:

* A new, province-wide “speculation tax,” focused on vacant homes. The tax will be 2 per cent of the assessed value of properties in 2019.

* The increase of the foreign buyers from 15 to 20 per cent, and the expansion of the tax to properties in other major municipal areas in B.C. outside Metro Vancouver.

*An increase of the property transfer tax for homes sold over $3 million from three per cent to five percent.

……………….

bye bye Vcr housing

#85 but...but.... on 02.20.18 at 7:18 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-average-asking-monthly-rent-september-2017-canada-mortgage-housing-1.4529133

i thought toronto’s rental market was going to fall?

not a chance!!!!!

#86 Roial1 on 02.20.18 at 7:19 pm

Garth, you keep slagging the NDP for their efforts to fix the housing problem.

Isn’t it time to also acknowledge that it was CONSERVATIVES who brought it on????
Remember that little finance minister that stole your Idea for the TFSA. Just remember that HE brought in the 40 year amortization and some other “housing aids” that we may NEVER recover from..

And don’t say that Cristy Clark is a “Liberal” She was a So-cred till that party imploded. (so conservative that Harper loved her) They stole the moribund BC liberal party NAME but it was the same-old-same-old.

Both the neo-cons and the socreds left HUGE deficits that must now be accounted for.

You may bost about your good works in parliament but that was a “Progressive” Conservative party and not what fallowed.

So what? Governments now are making things worse, not better. Everyone has dirty fingers. – Garth

#87 Howard on 02.20.18 at 7:20 pm

Can someone point me to all these modern, flexible companies that allow one to work entirely remotely?

Admittedly I worked for some rather staid, behind the times companies, but Canadian employers are generally NOT enthusiastic about work-from-home arrangements.

Your best bet for lucrative employment in a smaller centre, aside from certain tech roles (but aren’t those all outsourced to India??), is to become a territory sales rep for a large enterprise. There are only so many of those jobs available or individuals with the right aptitude for sales and relationship management.

Or, like countless others, you can start a business. – Garth

#88 Tulips on 02.20.18 at 7:21 pm

No 40% drop in YVR? But what about the burbs? Years ago Garth was saying that bubbles typically burst from the outside in. But that time was also supposedly “peak house” which turns out to have been way off too.

The affordability issues have spread rapidly through Coquitlam, Surrey, Maple Ridge, Langley, Abbotsford, Mission, and even Chilliwack now, with prices in these areas closing in on 100% gains in the past 5 years. Five years ago these markets were already showing signs of being overpriced according to Garth, myself, and many of us here. They were overpriced compared to rents, but still somewhat affordable. I’m regretting not having bought a place I could afford back then. Now I can only afford a place that comes with a two hour commute.

Is there even a 25% correction in the cards for the distant burbs? From here it sure doesn’t feel like it, especially with more people fleeing the city for the valley. I wouldn’t be surprised if prices increased in Chilliwack by another 25% in the next five years. Then I’ll be forced out for sure.

#89 Pete from St. Cesaire on 02.20.18 at 7:23 pm

“Quebec City. Halifax. Kingston. Montreal. London. Edmonton. Nanaimo. Regina. Charlottetown.”
————————————————————————
I’d change it to: Quebec City, Sherbrooke, Belleville, Charlottetown, Windsor, Peterborough, Gatineau, Regina, St. Hyacinthe.

#90 Cow Man on 02.20.18 at 7:25 pm

Cow Man

The only part of Canada that truly has a soul is Quebec. Everything else to the west of Quebec is for sale to the highest bidder.

#91 young & foolish on 02.20.18 at 7:26 pm

Wow … BC government is way out of line!

#92 Stone on 02.20.18 at 7:27 pm

#80 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.20.18 at 7:14 pm

Quota. – Garth

———

Thank you, Garth. It’s appreciated!

And congrats to Matt. Well done. SCM and Matt. Such polar opposites. There may be hope yet.

#93 Smoking Man on 02.20.18 at 7:28 pm

SCM

You’re to polished to be a regular Screwed Canadian Milenial
I’m calling you out as a paid liberal troll. You are bang on with activism liberal talking points.

Not that there is anything wrong with that. I suggest you read Hells Angles by Hunter S Thompson.

Know that the ethic of total retaliation toward the liberal elites will surface next election cycle. Nothing you say or do will change the outcome. Nothing the liberal leadership can do about it either. If a dead cow was running for the conservatives it will win.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#94 Howard on 02.20.18 at 7:29 pm

#70 Asterix1 on 02.20.18 at 6:47 pm
#29 Howard on 02.20.18 at 5:34 pm
Regeant Park, Dundas & Parliament area.
1 bdrm + den. List price $499K.
Buyer was local.
____________________________________________

I would say, buyer was loco!

Condos are next on the chopping block. That area is also crap.

———————————-———

Your view of Regeant Park is 15 out of date. Granted it wouldn’t be my choice of neighbourhood, but it’s changed dramatically since the early Noughties.

#95 Victor V on 02.20.18 at 7:33 pm

Toronto ranked first in world as city most at risk for real estate bubble

https://www.blogto.com/city/2018/02/toronto-ranked-first-world-city-most-risk-real-estate-bubble/

#96 Little Foot on 02.20.18 at 7:34 pm

Just my two cents: I come from a minority background and when I was 24 years old I moved back home to become a basement dweller. My parents gave me the option: either pay rent or move out and stay out. As an adult, I never even thought of living off my parents; so I paid rent. After getting a better paying job, I opted to pay rent in the form of paying all the incoming house bills (Gas, Power, TV, Phone). This was my way to help my parents out which led to them paying off their mortgage years in advance. What is wrong with parents today who have no backbone? How can adult children take advantage of their parents by living off of them, clearly there is no shame. Garth, I’m a happy renter, who is debt free, has and continues to travel the world, money saved up, no kids, no spouse and yet somehow, I’m still seen as a failure. If I cared about other people’s opinions, I’m sure I would have drank the kool-aid long ago, but I’m so thankful to my parents for being the kind of parents that I needed growing up in today’s society. Cheers to the blog-dogs for doing it right!!

#97 Randy on 02.20.18 at 7:34 pm

Toronto elects Liberals. I hate Liberals. Therefore, I hate Toronto.

#98 tccontrarian on 02.20.18 at 7:34 pm

I don’t think I’ve mentioned this before…

In 1998, November, I bought my first house (Bby, BC). It was a foreclosure (a small-time builder became over extended with debt when the market went ‘soft’).
He’d bought the property for $389k, then tried to unload it at $429k…but then re-listed several times over a few months, each time $10-20k lower, till the final price of $305k – which ended up what I paid.

So, at a time when prices were only marginally overvalued, this particular property lost over 20% of it value in 16 months. What makes people think that we’re gonna get thru this insanity with ‘only’ 20-25% drop?
I say a MINIMUM of 50% – and in some areas probably closer to 70%! I’ll be ready to scoop up the foreclosures once again (history seems to repeat folks!)

TCC

#99 ImGonnaBeSick on 02.20.18 at 7:34 pm

#37 – haha! What? Accounting literally comes from the meaning of to correct an account, hence, to count or calculate, as well as to think. You kids are good for a laugh, that’s for sure. Always making stuff up with such compunction that I’m afraid you think you’re correct. And to think, you’re just starting to get to the age where you’re coming into your own. This won’t end well.

#100 TheSecretCode on 02.20.18 at 7:35 pm

You don’t have to tell anyone in Vancouver this…they already have moved…straight out of town. Things in Kits used to be fun, lots of friends, laid back west coast lifestyle. Everyone just disappeared.

Re:#25 – moving from Vancouver to a place like Kelowna in your prime working years can be devastating to your income and those prime earning years. People don’t get it, until they make the move.

Now how about that 30 point action plan unleashed today:

I wonder why the foreign buyer tax that is being increased to 20% and expanded to Victoria, Nanaimo, Central Okanagan starting tomorrow? Is there foreign money flowing there that the government knows about?

One big question on this coverage extension: Why is Kamloops and Prince George being ignored and not included?

Alberta needs to react swiftly to these new rules coming in and be proactive in suiting up stem the redirection of money flow…Calgary is looking pretty good right now.

#101 I’m stupid on 02.20.18 at 7:36 pm

#33 Toronto is a bad place for men

Toronto is bad for your health, your social life and your dating life.

If you don’t own Italian sports cars from Avenue Road dealerships, and also own a Lakefront condo where you have a Debit card that can access at least $5 Million dollars, no woman in Toronto will even look at you, and if you try to talk to them, they will tell the cops that you are harassing her and making her feel uncomfortable.

– ——-

Maybe you’re just ugly!

#102 Danny on 02.20.18 at 7:37 pm

Garth you say “So, clearly, the easily-offended, gender-sensitive, over-educated, socially-engineered lefties we call Millennials got the short straw. ”

Do you have to make reference to ”lefties “? Can’t you just leave it at “the BC government “? I guess it’s just part of political genes. I know our past sometimes can’t allow us to be more open. The older I get the more difficult it is for me too…..but these days as you know — left, right and center in politics is all a blend.

Don Cherry. – — the hockey thug sounds more stupid than he is when he cannot understand that….”weather ” is not ” climate ” and he should not talk about climate change on national TV and just stick to hockey talk and his stuttering nonsense. He is one who changed hockey to a rough sport for the large guys. Anyway…. I rather more enjoy women’s hockey…..more skill more passing and good puck control.

To me housing costs in Toronto is all about low interest and greed by those who feel their God given right to push the limit of made up “house values”…..because there are so many “fools ” that you always talk about ….and these naive people of all ages are being transformed all the time by misleading Real Estate Market liars. The ones that you truly try to expose.

These days though any honest sense of real estate is become even more cloudy..by real estate boards……statistics manipulated and withheld, delayed………it’s misleading and it has no check regulations like other investment markets and the banks.

Besides government which other body can bring about more honesty in the real estate market? I know you are trying but I think we are losing the battle…without some government imposed regulations to protect consumers of real estate?

Isn’t this why you committed yourself to this blog and suffered because of it by a political party?

Thanks for the cause.

#103 Shawn on 02.20.18 at 7:38 pm

This is why Londoners are, mostly, renters in their own city, especially the young:

Quote from The Guardian:
Foreign investors are buying up thousands of homes suitable for first-time buyers in London, using them as buy-to-let investments and often holding them in offshore tax havens, research for the London mayor, Sadiq Khan, has revealed.

Led by investors from Hong Kong and Singapore, foreign buyers snapped up 3,600 of London’s 28,000 newly built homes between 2014 and 2016, according to the most comprehensive survey yet of international investment in London housing. About half of those were priced for first-time buyers between £200,000 and £500,000.

#104 morrey on 02.20.18 at 7:40 pm

@Larry1

very wise move!

You will love it!

#105 Entrepreneur on 02.20.18 at 7:40 pm

Listened to the BC NDP Budget Speech and felt good about it. A much-needed-adult-approach strategy to governing our province.

Moving from a big city to a smaller place makes that person feel right but now our smaller areas on VI is starting to be like big city attitude with big ticket prices. With rents going sky high, unable to buy, unable to move up. And a lot of the youth left or will leave here too.

#106 White Rock Beach on 02.20.18 at 7:40 pm

It seems the last couple posts have changed from Garth’s normal narrative. Now the 604 and 416 are unattainable and not going to come crumbling down. If that is the case, those of us who bought in the last 5-10 years areare wise to have ignored the blog. Way higher returns on the home than anything else.

However, I will do think there is a big correction coming. The BC government is anti business and are pro taxation. I don’t know where the locals will find money to keep this game going.

#107 Hugh Janus on 02.20.18 at 7:41 pm

When you have trudeau and morneau run amuck on the hill, you are going to have grief. Just wait, this is just the start of taxation. You will all be compliant little sheeple by the time they are done with you. Remember the climate change hoax you were all sucked into by the fake leftwing news media? Well, now you have a carbon tax. How is that working out for ya? Next will be a climate preservation tax etc, etc. Never ending.

Can you imagine trying to find a doctor in lotus land or a lawyer in toronto in a few years? Or even get a cup of tims once all the dudes like matt and his missus have moved to more real places like thunder bay or okotoks?

Now the west coast dippers are juicing the budget it will be a while before any significant changes take place in that cesspool. Horgan and his ilk are just starting to fill their pockets and will not be done milking that cashcow for some time to come.

#108 Howard on 02.20.18 at 7:42 pm

Or, like countless others, you can start a business. – Garth

——————————————

Nah, I’ll just wait for my inheritance when my folks sell their SFD in North York :-) Inherited, unearned wealth worked out great for T2. Maybe I could be PM?

Truth be told I do have some business ideas, based on what I see here in Europe that doesn’t yet exist in Canada.

#109 TheSecretCode on 02.20.18 at 7:42 pm

What is that noise?????? Sounds like air seeping.

It is not the cost of the rules coming in…it is the sneaky little angles that the rules provide to allow the .gov to get their nose in it…and the business of dirty money does not like that just on this fact alone regarding scrutinizing, which leads to problems if you are dodging rule of law.

Land title office being overhauled.

Lawyers and realtors screaming in BC right now.

#110 KAC on 02.20.18 at 7:42 pm

#6 Bileous Festeroni

“……. imagine what a city looks like once all of the young families and the next generation of workers who can…have left. Boring af. So be it, the sword cuts both ways.

Apparently not.

I’ve been in Sydney, Hong Kong, Monaco and various other places with insanely priced real estate in recent times and, despite having much worse housing costs than beautiful Vancouver, they are still wonderfully vibrant places to visit. The restaurants, the nightlife, the busy shopping malls, all great places to live, but only if you can afford it, nd plenty of people can.

Sorry to be the bearer of such bad news. Blame the loonie left, the Social Justice Warriors and the liberal snowflakes for introducing us to globalization and ensuring that the less talented young folks no longer have their competition limited only to a limited talent pool of local players. Now you have to compete with smarter, more motivated folks from around the world, and guess what? The highly motivated smart people usually come out on top.

It’s a brave new world where we are now free to compete with the entire rest of the planet. We used to live in a “somewhat” sealed-off and prosperous continent where low motivation and mediocrity were no barriers to a comfortable lifestyle, but it seemed so unfair to see much of the rest of the planet working hard but still living in relative poverty. Well the lefties fixed that!

It only seemed fair to spread the wealth. Unfortunately, spreading the wealth rarely works that well, it usually ends up with spreading the poverty and destroying the middle class and seeing the truly wealthy retreat to their gated enclaves or flee to places where success is not resented. But that’s what socialists really want their envy based policies to achieve isn’t it?

Oh joy, T2 and Soros must be thrilled.

#111 ulsterman on 02.20.18 at 7:44 pm

#28 Rob Dog on 02.20.18 at 5:31 pm

Rob in May you’ll have a great Kitsilano dentist heading your way too. Friend of mine just bought in Nanaimo and will be there with his family before the summer once the local loose ends are tied up.

#112 -=jwk=- on 02.20.18 at 7:46 pm

The macho idea that if you can’t “make it” in Toronto you somehow ‘lost’ is ridiculous. It’s not you, it IS the city. Maybe in 50 years Toronto will be a true world class city.Right now it’s an awkward teenager growing in weird places and unsure of what to do with itself at the party.

My wife and I are big city folks. Shanghai. Los Angeles. Kuala Lumpur. Manhattan. Then, the transfer to Toronto in 2010. Fine big city, right? well, sort of. But not really. Appaling rental stock, and overpriced back then. So we bought a 2bed co-op and started saving. After a couple of years we realized this was useless, and the city was a pain in the ass to live in to boot. I remember flying back to NYC for interviews, staying at a friends in Jersey city. I commuted in with him, he was at the Amex building across from WTC in 34 minutes. I was at 44 Wall 10 minutes later. They paid $339 for 3/2 SFH.

Called home after the interview. Didn’t get/want the gig really and we had to leave Toronto… Where in 2015 could you buy a 3/2 SFH a 30 or 40 minute no transfer commute to King and Bay?

Something is wrong here, folks.

well their house has SOARED in value, this isn’t it but same area of JC (bergen-lafayette) and about same size…now selling for 350k SFH:

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/594-Ocean-Ave_Jersey-City_NJ_07305_M50527-69314#photo13

We wound in Ottawa of all places, but bought too big of a house because it seemed so cheap compared to the big smoke. Be careful to buy what you need Matt, not what you can ‘afford’ by crazy toronto standards.

#113 Walked on 02.20.18 at 7:47 pm

Brother listed house in Vancouver and had open on weekend, with offers due yesterday by 5pm. 2 came in, one no subjects full price, other was 20k over ask with subjects…I told him take the no subject full offer… he took the extra 20K…..he just got call saying they are walking away…wonder if the full price offer will come back after todays budget release.

#114 Catalyst on 02.20.18 at 7:47 pm

Brrr…Kingston.

#115 TS on 02.20.18 at 7:47 pm

Funny how moving to Western Quebec is only an option for people because they can still use Ontario hospitals in Ottawa.

If little Jimmy had to wait 2 days in a dungeon instead of coming over to CHEO, you’d have second thoughts :)

#116 Howard on 02.20.18 at 7:51 pm

#53 jim on 02.20.18 at 6:26 pm

Nanaimo was out of place on that list, but all the other cities were valid, affordable options.

Basically, BC has made a steaming mess of itself. The entire southern quarter of the province is no longer accessible to anyone below the 90th percentile in earnings.

I’ve said before that if Albertans want to kick BC in the nuts (who could blame them), they should sell their summer homes in the Okanagan and buy in eastern Washington State or Idaho instead. Lots of money leftover for TFSAs, RRSPs, and Vegas weekends. Forget BC even exists.

#117 Buddy on 02.20.18 at 7:54 pm

#9 Joe

Just because you grew up somewhere doesn’t entitle you to a detached. Why are you offended? Who are these ‘greedy a holes’ you speak of? I wish I was one of those greedy a holes with a detached, but I really don’t care anymore. There’s so much more to life. Hasn’t this blog taught you anything?

#118 Stone on 02.20.18 at 8:04 pm

#112 -=jwk=- on 02.20.18 at 7:46 pm
The macho idea that if you can’t “make it” in Toronto you somehow ‘lost’ is ridiculous. It’s not you, it IS the city. Maybe in 50 years Toronto will be a true world class city.Right now it’s an awkward teenager growing in weird places and unsure of what to do with itself at the party.

My wife and I are big city folks. Shanghai. Los Angeles. Kuala Lumpur. Manhattan. Then, the transfer to Toronto in 2010. Fine big city, right? well, sort of. But not really. Appaling rental stock, and overpriced back then. So we bought a 2bed co-op and started saving. After a couple of years we realized this was useless, and the city was a pain in the ass to live in to boot. I remember flying back to NYC for interviews, staying at a friends in Jersey city. I commuted in with him, he was at the Amex building across from WTC in 34 minutes. I was at 44 Wall 10 minutes later. They paid $339 for 3/2 SFH.

Called home after the interview. Didn’t get/want the gig really and we had to leave Toronto… Where in 2015 could you buy a 3/2 SFH a 30 or 40 minute no transfer commute to King and Bay?

Something is wrong here, folks.

well their house has SOARED in value, this isn’t it but same area of JC (bergen-lafayette) and about same size…now selling for 350k SFH:

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/594-Ocean-Ave_Jersey-City_NJ_07305_M50527-69314#photo13

We wound in Ottawa of all places, but bought too big of a house because it seemed so cheap compared to the big smoke. Be careful to buy what you need Matt, not what you can ‘afford’ by crazy toronto standards.

——

Took a look at the link. Nice house at first glance except for the fact that all 1st floor windows have bars over them. What kind of neighbourhood requires that?

#119 south burnaby gardener on 02.20.18 at 8:04 pm

And if you have to provide elder care? How on earth do you move? You just abandon your aging parent/in-law? Or do you force them to move too and give up seeing all their friends? Speaking with 12 years of elder care, this is *not* helpful advice.

Would you rather I lie? – Garth

#120 Buddy on 02.20.18 at 8:05 pm

#102

Did you see the scrap at the end of the US Canada women’s game? Awesome. And to answer all your questions, when you realize that more taxes on anything are just a way for governments to raise money to fund operations and obligations. How can you tax climate but not weather? Are you going to put a tax on all the active volcanoes in the world? What about if we put a automatic tax garnishing machine on all of our bumholes that calculates 15% of all emisions released?

#121 Chelsea on 02.20.18 at 8:06 pm

Now the BC NDP Financial Budget has been announced, and more information to come later, we just need more interest rate hikes here to totally dampen the major housing prices. Some good points, though, but need more precise clarification on the speculation tax, does it relate to certain cities as announced, or all of B.C.? Will have to wait and see. Really, I thought this BC Budget was the final one, all the questions answered, but, sadly not.

#122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.20.18 at 8:07 pm

@#80 screwed canadian millenial
“quota”
++++++

Thats a Bingo!

#123 S.Bby on 02.20.18 at 8:09 pm

#76 Nanaimo, the gift that keeps on giving!

you just got kneecapped…

#124 south burnaby gardener on 02.20.18 at 8:10 pm

‘So stay and shut up. You sound like a prisoner in your own mind. – Garth’ see my comment on elder care.
Never said buying was a good move, just that the choices are much, much, much, more difficult than you are suggesting.

#125 jess on 02.20.18 at 8:14 pm

http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/02/12/former-senior-fbi-official-is-leading-buzzfeeds-effort-to-verify-trump-dossier/

#126 Dominoes Lining Up on 02.20.18 at 8:17 pm

Toronto has reached a tipping point in many ways. Too many people there have nothing in their lives except costly real estate, and can barely afford to pay property taxes which are much lower than the 905.

Politicians cleverly pander to this sentiment, refusing to raise taxes to pay for necessities for a vibrant city. Here’s a prescient piece about how Toronto is slowly falling apart because politicians are too afraid to do the right things.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/02/20/torontos-latest-sign-of-decline-senior-civic-servants-leaving-in-droves.html

“Tory has presided over a race to bottom that could leave Toronto another civic also-ran. We don’t like to think of it, but there’s no guarantee a community will always prosper, no matter how rich it is now. The landscape is littered with dead and dying cities.”

The exodus of senior civil servants from Toronto city staff is a pretty serious canary in the coalmine, imho.

#127 Financial Orchid on 02.20.18 at 8:17 pm

Garth’s last line summed it up. You’ll actually have money to take kids to Disneyland and have disposable income again when your biggest expense is lower+ better managed. Just make sure there’s a sizeable airport.
On the bright side being young-middle aged(?)
does afford you the opportunity to move back to the main cities in your golden years. Not now. Maybe later. Unsure if seniors will want to be in the big smoke tho.
http://financialorchid.com/3-ways-to-manage-house-horniness-and-fomo

Yours truly,
West coast millennial

#128 millmech on 02.20.18 at 8:18 pm

MF
Gen X here, rent which costs me two days pay all in( or one overtime shift). Millenial son buying a nice house in the interior for less than his and gf wages for one year , 3bdrms 5 acres.
By the way their combined wages comes to $250,000/yr plus good union pensions.(both under 30 yrs old)
Why waste a life in a big city scrambling for crumbs and constantly listening to all the whining, losers who will never get ahead, they are on easy street now.
Could not be more happier for them!

#129 Asterix1 on 02.20.18 at 8:18 pm

“Move. Or shut up”.

Not too sure about that one.

1. Moving to Québec City is a pretty easy decision for Matt!
– He was born in New Brunswick (6h drive)
– Raised in Québec City, lots of friends and family.
– Lived in Montréal (2.5h drive) to see friends.

For locals, born and raised in Toronto (GTA), its their town, their family, friends, neighborhoods and culture. Most cannot leave everything (especially when you have kids), having parents/friends around is crucial.

Matt is moving back to his town!

2. “Shut up”. Never shut up! Keep blasting those who actually deserve to be blasted when your city has been ruined by terrible policies and monetary policy.

#130 Bobby on 02.20.18 at 8:20 pm

Just watched the NDP budget in BC. As expected a lot more taxes, especially on housing. Of course, business will pay more as profit is a dirty word in socialist circles.
Sadly this propped up party doesn’t have a clue. They quickly abandoned those who voted for the $400 rental rebate and $10 daycare. How can you change course only months after being elected? Given they are anti development, how will all this new spending get paid first?
My guess is the monies tied to housing speculation won’t materialize driving the province further deep into depth. Taxes will have no choice to go up. If these measures crash the market, what will the NDP do with so many who may lose their homes. Tax them?
People wonder why BC is so unaffordable, it’s the fees, taxes and levies on almost everything one buys. Gas now in the lower mainland has over $.49 tax for every litre.
Recall when the NDP got turfed out 16 years ago the first thing the new government did was lower taxes. I think we are seeing a case of déjà Vu, but only after such a short time in office. Funny.

#131 Yorkville Renter on 02.20.18 at 8:26 pm

#33, #35, #39… your problem is attitude. it sucks. grow up. Or, you’re ugly, awkward lady hater. If you keep failing, look at the man in the mirror – the problem isn’t everyone else – it’s you.

Same with SCM.

complain, do nothing about it, complain some more. lame.

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.20.18 at 8:27 pm

So Garth.
Whats the “seafood special” in Lunenburg today?

#133 Kohl hand Luke on 02.20.18 at 8:33 pm

Wow, what an utterly depressing post and comments.

Watch some movies about world war 2, and give thanks that we have no tanks rolling down the streets, herding people into camps.

We have moved around lots in the last 5 years. It has made our family strong, landed us amazing job opportunities, and sure beats watching the status quo change in front of your eyes.

Maybe just maybe, we are over populated as a species. Let the flame wars begin (ok I am dating myself)

#134 Who are you? on 02.20.18 at 8:33 pm

In its Tuesday budget, B.C. announced it will become the first province to require those behind landowning numbered company to reveal their names.

#135 IHCTD9 on 02.20.18 at 8:35 pm

Matt, you’ve made the right decision.

I know I’ve preached the doctrine of moving to a smaller city to earn reasonable wages and buy affordable housing 100X on this blog, but here is another angle to look at it beyond just affordable housing:

Bought house 123K while household income was ~90K.
With no real effort paid for house in 14 years while saving.
Combined Income went up to about 125K over the years but we almost never work 40 hrs anymore so 115-120K is typical. Lol, that’s just crap money for two incomes right?

Here is a list of big expenditures we’ve made Jan 2016 – Dec 2017:

Two good used vehicles – 18,500.00
Four private School annual tuitions (2 kids) – 50,000.00
Three good used ATV’s – 16,000.00
Two rounds of braces – 11,000.00

That’s 95,500.00 after tax dollars dumped in 24 months, all paid CASH, no loans involved – with dollars to spare. The quads, vehicles, came out of our emergency fund, the tuition and braces are budgeted and came out of our checking account every month. I also sold a few projects off to raise some funds and make room for the bikes.

How? All of our mortgage payments were under 1200.00/ month. Entire last term was 550.00/month. Cheaper than rent. This allowed us to save like gangbusters, both for future expenses and retirement.

That’s pretty much it.

No ginormous mortgage payment. This changes everything. I’ll bet most regular working folks (like us) in the GTA with Mega mortgages can’t even imagine the possibility.

Now get this into you, we’ve been paying 10k plus tuition every year since 2005 – CASH. Every toy, every vehicle, every vacation, all of everything was paid CASH, all because we had the ability to save big since day 1, and get in front of every foreseeable bill we anticipated having to pay.

Icing on the cake? While this tornado of cash was exiting our bank account, we STILL had the ability to accumulate a nest egg that is well assured to eclipse 7 figures before retirement. It was the first thing the wife and I did – we started investing together even before getting married.

Big mortgage payments are financial death sentences. IMHO, you need to avoid this at all costs – even if it means throwing your education away and changing careers to move where you can be free from life long debt slavery.

#136 morrey on 02.20.18 at 8:36 pm

Tax, tax & more tax. BC is now an accountant’s promised land. – Garth

great i say. Non-residents will pay more and that money is spread to people actually living in BC.

AND the budget is getting vey good reviews. Other than the new payroll tax, most of the NDP budget seems to have generated positive responses.

#137 Chico on 02.20.18 at 8:37 pm

#4 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 02.20.18 at 4:47 pm

Getting out of Toronto and Vancouver is of course good advice, but where the hell are you going to go in this frozen hellhole? Regina? Thunder Bay? Winnipeg? All I see is sh*thole, sh*thole, sh*thole. What an awful place to live. Just get the hell out if you can. Life is too short to waste it in this god forsaken hellhole.

—————————————————-

That is hilarious :)
How could anyone get mad at what you’ve written, it’s the sort of thing a great comedian, someone working on Saturday Night Live could turn into a great character sketch.

It’s as funny as the guy who said that “Winnipeg stole my youth.” It’s brilliant because it’s said by real people.
This is definitely one of your best, even better than “frozen hellhole.”

You are in a class only a few posters ever get in. Freedom First had one of the best though…”I have mastered humility.” He used it many times and I always laughed heartily. Brilliant! Brilliant!

#138 Mean Gene on 02.20.18 at 8:38 pm

Moving to another place in Canada with equally crappy weather as TO should be a no brainer.

Having more disposable income should be the end game, not certain postal codes.

#139 Linda on 02.20.18 at 8:39 pm

Go Matt! I find it interesting that so few people are taking advantage of the new work reality. Telecommuting is not being embraced the way various pundits said it would be. Now, there is/was a lot of resistance on the part of employers – mainly managers working for employers – whose main concern was whether a telecommuter would actually be ‘working’ while staying at home. But money, as always, talks. Renting or buying space to house employees costs mucho money. Telecommuting, on the other hand, gets rid of much of that expensive space requirement & since every keystroke can be monitored & face to face communication (hello, Skype et al) is available a lot of those who prefer ‘face to face’ communication are accommodated. Which means, the computer literate, educated, mobile person need no longer tie their physical presence to where their employer is located. All they need is reliable, fast computer connections wherever they actually live. Of course, this does not apply to any service industry, where the body providing the service must be at X location. For those whose work is computer based, the world is yours to explore. Which means reasonably priced markets could be had without sacrificing a well paid position…..

#140 Kelowna out on 02.20.18 at 8:41 pm

Vancouver’s price growth will stall, Victoria’s prices will slip as will Nanaimo’s.

But Kelowna is going to get smacked hard. All those rich Albertan’s that own vacation houses there but pay no BC income tax will get hit. Foreigners (that have shifted their focus from Vancouver) speculating will have to pay both the speculator’s tax plus the foreign buyer’s tax. The new-condo flippers from Vancouver have been buying pre sales in Kelowna condos lately but now the BC government will be forcing them to pay capital gains taxes even if they flip before possession.

The incomes in Kelowna are already substantially lower and good jobs harder to find. It’s a big wake up call for Vancouver refugees settling here.

#141 MPAC on 02.20.18 at 8:44 pm

@#87 Howard
Can someone point me to all these modern, flexible companies that allow one to work entirely remotely?
——————————————————————–MPAC allows its employees to work from home. I work from home 3 days a week.

#142 YVR Renter on 02.20.18 at 8:45 pm

Happy to see the spec and foreign buyer taxes extend around the province. With YVR too expensive for us 1% earners in lour ate 50’s, we naively looked at Victoria and Kelowna, have friends in both, thought maybe could get a lovely retirement home there. Last May at a new highrise condo showroom downtown, there were 3 other couples looking, all 3 were not Canadian and asked if there was a foreign buyer tax. Hmmm, 1 out of 4 couples looking were local, us. In Victoria, were very interested in a new reno development on a historic old building on the waterfront (you know the one). We were registered early, and they called- they were pricing $1500/sq foot. In VICTORIA! We laughed and said call us when you come to reality. Well, they are still selling them, got another invite this week to attend a wine and appie event here in Van for it. Ditto the Horseshoe Bay development-again -were 2/4 locals and 2 of the couples asking about foreign buyer tax. We gave up after innumerable overpriced adventures like these, all at $1500-2500 sq ft. We’re going back to rural Ontario as soon as what we came to do for work is done, sooner the better! Going to build a beautiful custom home on acreage for < $1.2 million.

#143 Ray Skunk on 02.20.18 at 8:48 pm

Both myself and a friend at work are looking at buying this year.

Me primarily because Mrs Skunk is with child, my friend because of FOMO.

My target price is half what his is, despite us earning roughly the same. I’m looking at a quaint town in the far, far reaches of the GTA (we can both work from home), he’s looking in Toronto.

I’m hoping to pull the trigger in the fall, when prices should be a little more sane. He’s putting offers in now.

Our combined observations (I’m performing my early diligence) are that inventory is low. Zero new listings in my town this year, pretty much. Houses that have been up since October(!) are not being reduced in price. It’s sticky out there, people are refusing to let go.

Last week he put a $1.4m offer in on a semi where a comparable late last year went for $1.3. The offer was turned down. Delusional seller, or one hoping for some HAM (there’s a term you don’t see much on here these days)? Either way, nothing is tumbling because nothing is listed, and what is listed, sellers are thumbing their noses to reductions.

Interesting times. There will for sure be a minor uptick in the spring, will it be the catalyst to a summer of RE optimism? I’m not seeing much downside out there at the moment.

#144 ben on 02.20.18 at 8:49 pm

Well here is a thing. You can’t change the system but you can change the system you are in.

So yes – move from Toronto/Vancouver.

But also moan to the intellectually lazy boomers. Let them know you think they as a generation suck. If every person under 40 gave boomers a load of crap about it all day, every day, yeah things would change.

They richly deserve it. They sold their own kids to the bankers. For a paper gain. And they don’t regret it. They’d do it *again*.

Anyhow they will literally all be gone pretty soon. Then we get our countries back.

Words you will regret. – Garth

#145 Dan on 02.20.18 at 8:50 pm

Randy No.97
Toronto elects Liberals. I hate Liberals. Therefore, I hate Toronto…

Not really…..consider Mayor Lastmam……Mayor Ford……Mayor Tory. …all conservatives.

#146 morrey on 02.20.18 at 8:51 pm

“B.C. Budget 2018: B.C. NDP increases and extends housing taxes in effort to rein in speculation”
this is lauded by many! eg:
Michael Geller, a Vancouver developer and urban planning professional, said the NDP’s new framework on enforcement and limiting speculation is “pretty comprehensive” and could be very powerful, if the government follows through with enforcement.

“They’ve raised the hammer but they haven’t quite hit the nail yet,” Geller said Tuesday, after reviewing the plans. “These measures could have a dampening effect on the market.”

#147 Chico on 02.20.18 at 8:53 pm

#11 Nidus on 02.20.18 at 5:01 pm

I moved from Toronto to Regina a little while ago and it is amazingly affordable. People are friendly and have money to spend, probably because they’re not paying a ridiculous amount of money for a shack. My new friends are not like my old friends in Toronto where everyone is pinching every penny when they go out. Restaurants and stores are always busy. I’m glad of the move. Regina is a safe haven for what’s left of the middle class in Canada.

———————————————

I was just thinking about that a couple days ago, all the nice vehicles I see people driving in the small town NS. With housing so cheap, I rarely see any beaters.

#148 ben on 02.20.18 at 8:57 pm

> words you will regret

If you mean from a personal angle, yes, but that was not my thought when writing them.

It’s also a fact.

And here’s another. What has happened over the past 25 years is *absolutely unforgivable*. We had our entire future sold from under us. It’s disgusting. I know there will be no acceptance of responsibility in this blog (and before the boomers start – I have a good job/family etc), I’m thinking of others when I state this distaste for selling the future for cheap thrills.

Anyhow, it really is nearly over. Soon on a forum when you criticise the boomers there will not be a single person typing “I’m a boomer but…” etc. That is a fact.

#149 IHCTD9 on 02.20.18 at 9:07 pm

#21 Stan Brooks on 02.20.18 at 5:20 pm
I guess Matt is irrelevant in the big scheme of things.

But hey, socks boy strikes again:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/indian-companies-tell-trudeau-invest-112213393.html

(loo at the intelligence on his face and read the comments)

investing 750 millions in India while India ‘invests’ 250 millions here.
—————

**** me. So Trudeau goes to India to make trade deals and puts us half a billion in the hole.

I just can’t believe it. We need to stop letting him out of the country. It even looks like he thought he had made a deal to bring a billion to Canada and had to be corrected later. This cement headed goof doesn’t even understand what he is signing us up for.

If I made deals like this on behalf of my employer, they’d ram a dunce cap over my head and pound my dumb ass right out the front door.

#150 Bc born on 02.20.18 at 9:10 pm

Salmon arm
Anglemont
Celista
Scotch creek
Chase
Pritchard
Kamloops
Savona
Cache creek
Clinton
Barrier
Little fort
Clearwater
Avola
Blue river
Valemount
100 mile house
Williams lake
Quesnel
Kersley
Prince George
Keep heading west or north
Great fishing and hunting

#151 Musty Basement Dweller on 02.20.18 at 9:10 pm

Democracy Is Mob Rule on 02.20.18 at 5:01 pm
The mob has spoken:

http://bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2018/homesbc/2018_Homes_For_BC.pdf
_—————-
Thanks for posting this document. It helps to explain the details of the multi-faceted housing plan in the budget today..The NDP has done a good job on this, No question that it will help with prices eventually. The previous government was totally ignorant and/or inactive on this file.

#152 A J on 02.20.18 at 9:12 pm

#33 Toronto is a Bad Place for MEN!

How dare Toronto women have standards! They should be happy with any Joe-Shmo making minimum wage who still has half his hair.

#153 conan on 02.20.18 at 9:14 pm

#107 Hugh Janus on 02.20.18 at 7:41 pm

Whatever buddy.

At least 2 sessions before anyone will consider giving a majority to the Fed Conservatives.

The Ontario election coming up….. its going to be a statement vote by almost every woman living in Ontario voting Not/ Nay/ Never/ Conservative.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KxMc_tyQBo

#154 Chico on 02.20.18 at 9:14 pm

#25 Nik on 02.20.18 at 5:27 pm

Also, as an immigrant smaller cities that lack diversity makes for a sucky life.

———————————————-

That’s an interesting take on being an immigrant. My wife and I stopped by an immigrant friend’s restaurant tonight, who is from Lebanon. I’ve been in the New Glasgow NS region only two years and we were chatting about how much we both love the slow pace in comparison to the large city centers we were both from. We play soccer together and the indoor soccer complex, which is great because I meet people from all parts of the country and world, because soccer is a global game.

I come from 6 different European blood lines, all who…immigrated here.

In over 5 decades of living in Canada I have always enjoyed the fact that “the world” comes here, so there are so many interesting people to meet.

The “sucky life” you fear is probably a different way of saying you don’t care to mix with people from different backgrounds, which is a shame for you…you’re missing out on one of the greatest things about being Canadian, getting to know people from around the world!

Punjabi
Pakistani
Scottish
Dutch
English
German
French
Irish
Portuguese
Polish
South African
Greek
Columbia
Iran
Iraq
Antigua
Barbados
Nigeria
Texas :)
New Yorkers
Panamanians
Jamaicans
Russian
Mexican
Ukrainian

I have had the pleasure of getting to know, befriending and learning from people from all the above mentioned countries, all because I am Canadian. (I could have written more countries but I was getting tired)

Welcome to Canada!

#155 Dobermanduke on 02.20.18 at 9:17 pm

A great percentage of the time a kid from small town Canada has to leave his friends and family and move to a big city in order to work in his chosen field. Doesn’t bitch and complain and isn’t looking for any sympathy. As soon as someone from the city is faced with moving in order to get what they desire, they want the situation around them to conform.

#156 Stone on 02.20.18 at 9:17 pm

#129 Asterix1 on 02.20.18 at 8:18 pm
“Move. Or shut up”.

Not too sure about that one.

1. Moving to Québec City is a pretty easy decision for Matt!
– He was born in New Brunswick (6h drive)
– Raised in Québec City, lots of friends and family.
– Lived in Montréal (2.5h drive) to see friends.

For locals, born and raised in Toronto (GTA), its their town, their family, friends, neighborhoods and culture. Most cannot leave everything (especially when you have kids), having parents/friends around is crucial.

Matt is moving back to his town!

2. “Shut up”. Never shut up! Keep blasting those who actually deserve to be blasted when your city has been ruined by terrible policies and monetary policy.

——-

People have friends in Toronto? I thought they were all empty shelled acquaintances. Culture? Seriously? What a revelation. Please, tell me more. LOL

#157 Wrk.dover on 02.20.18 at 9:22 pm

I built a box on a boat trailer and filled with my stuff, hooked it to a $100 Ford and left GTA with Enough gas money to go 1500 miles. That was back in 1979.

It sucked having no FM, but 10′ satellite dishes soon came along, with MTV, then Much Music. Then the net!

Friends are easier to make than keep when you move, but the old ones have never changed when I do see them again, even several decades later. They still race with rats!

Billy Joel’s movin out was a current song at the time. I even bought the album.

Still applicable.

#158 young & foolish on 02.20.18 at 9:22 pm

Investment math is easy … determining future returns or government tax policies, not so much.

#159 Carol 'Jesse' James on 02.20.18 at 9:26 pm

Another candidate for the enemy of the “resident”s

#160 Chico on 02.20.18 at 9:30 pm

#53 jim on 02.20.18 at 6:26 pm

“Quebec City. Halifax. Kingston. Montreal. London. Edmonton. Nanaimo. Regina. Charlottetown.”

Ummm, no.

————————————————-

Read the list again Jim. The only place you did research on was around the corner in BC. Live a little. Get on realtor.ca and check out the rest of the country. The country is huge!

Do a city list for Ontario alone. 51 cities with a total pop. of 9.2 mill. The country is huge!!!

#161 Classical Liberal Millennial on 02.20.18 at 9:31 pm

Why do so many people think that to leave the GTA means they have to leave Ontario altogether? There are so many beautiful towns and smaller cities in other areas of the province. And the house prices are even manageable!

#162 oncebittwiceshy on 02.20.18 at 9:33 pm

Lol …. reactions from people in B.C. on another forum board.

This is going to be one ugly CRASH.

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
tjv, on 20 Feb 2018 – 3:45 PM, said:

It will be interesting to see what happens to our real estate market

I wonder if BC homeowners can sue for cutting the increase in the value of our houses? I was planning on another 15% increase this year which is another 450k tax free. Curious if anyone else feels the same way?

#163 IHCTD9 on 02.20.18 at 9:34 pm

#41 Howard on 02.20.18 at 5:59 pm
Fair advice Garth, but I wonder why more Boomers in YYZ and YVR don’t do the same? Cash out their house lottery ticket and move to one of the cities you mentioned. They can pay cash for a new home and have plenty left over to winter down south a few months every year until they either die or enter long term care
————

I’ll bet a lot do. Many exit Toronto with bags of money to my sector of the hinterland. So much so, that gentrification is in full effect in some areas.

Prince Edward County is a good example. A beat up old farm house is 4-500K. Last year some delusional spec’er from the GTA paid 600K for an empty 100 acre corn field. No house, just the field. I guess buddy is expecting some major development lol!

#164 Cici on 02.20.18 at 9:36 pm

Good move Matt, Quebec City is a great little city with lots of class.

But learn French if you don’t speak it already (last I heard the gov even offers free courses, and if not your employer will)…you’ll have more fun and open the door to a world of great opportunities.

#165 LT on 02.20.18 at 9:37 pm

First time writing comment here. People really should have a different perspective on life. Believe me, nobody had it tougher than me and my friends – Gen X-ers in the early 90-s in the Soviet era. Dormitories full of cockroaches, freezing temperatures in the room, no food, no cloths, no hope. Just lectures in computer science without any computers. Yet we always did something to achieve better life for ourselves. We moved between cities, learnt English from zero level as adults, then moved to Canada having only 4 suitcases between the 2 of us in pre-Internet era, continuously upgraded skills and simply worked our way up the social ladder without blaming anyone. Guess what!? We now have good houses (although with mortgage), good incomes, investments and even rental properties which we rent out to whining millennials. So, if you want something in life, just go ahead and do something with your life. Everything will fall into its rightful place one day.

#166 young & foolish on 02.20.18 at 9:41 pm

“Moving to another place in Canada with equally crappy weather as TO should be a no brainer.”

Sure, no problem. You can telecommute, and hope nobody forgets you exist and don’t need to find another job.

#167 David on 02.20.18 at 9:43 pm

148
This all started before the boomers. Government policies enacted from the 1960s on have created too much debt and too much money supply leading to asset inflation and currency devaluation. I’m a gen x but I work hard and had some luck that I made for myself. Stop whining and do something for yourself rather than blame others for your lot.

#168 Steve on 02.20.18 at 9:45 pm

I have two millennial teens. They are both repulsed by their own generation. It’s disturbing. I’m a gen X. I grew up in kelowna and never left. I developed a massive grudge against the boomers. Bordering on hatred. It was because of several bitter experiences I had dealing with their age-partheid thinking and discriminatory practices aimed at younger people. Hold them back, keep them down, starve em out. It is and was absolutely real. Ultimately I matured somewhat and started looking closer at my feelings. I could see that there were many individuals in that generation that were not at fault. I realized that harboring this enmity was poisonous and futile. It also made me sound like an idiot when I’d start railing against all the “injustice” I felt I received. The boomers have had their day. And it has been a long long day. Their music on every station in town forever and ever. It’s like the sun will never set on Woodstock. However it is setting, and sadly. I lost my Dad last spring. Obviously he was of that generation. He wasn’t the kind of person that disrespected youthful people. Just like millions of wonderful individuals that comprise the much maligned boomer group. I must admit I love them. Their goofy culture and style is reassuring and familiar to me. It’s much finer than the sewage laced vomit that is currently selling as “entertainment”. I hope everyone can just hold hands and bravely face tommorow. It is going to require humility to survive.

#169 Matt from SoLongToronto on 02.20.18 at 9:48 pm

Here’s Matt,

It’s 9:30pm and I finally have time to read some of the feedback. I finally put my toddler to bed and now I’m sitting comfortably sipping on a Whiskey I bought for $2 off at the LCBO.

To 3,14,15,21,79,80,118,129:

I read your comments. Did not expect such polite replies. One of you made a good point. I did live in Quebec City in the past, which of course, makes it an easier option. Certainly, I wouldn’t call anyone stupid for deciding to stay in Toronto and paying a mortgage that’s 2x as high. Moving to another province, especially one where most people speak French, is not easy.

If you don’t (yet) have a family, I would pull my courage and give it a shot. You don’t need to change your passport. You don’t need to handle complicated international tax issues. You don’t even need to take a new driver’s test. If you do not speak a word of french, try Montreal first. An ex-coworker did just fine at a French company there. Good workers are hard to come-by, so many employers will still give you a job, and the team will help you out. The Montreal language barrier may be a smaller obstacle than the Toronto housing barrier.

My favorite comment was from SCM. It took me a bit of time to understand who was this SCM that commentors were referring to. He said:

“I’m calling you out as a paid liberal troll.”

I had a good laugh, but I have no idea what to reply.
If I was younger and still temperamental, I would try to prove I am not. But I’m a tired dad, itching to put some popcorn in the microwave, and I don’t follow politics.

Maybe I’ll write another blog post next week. Something less depressing? I’m thinking about my trip to the Playboy mansion 10 years ago. No programmer nudity was involved, I promise.

#170 For those about to flop... on 02.20.18 at 9:50 pm

Recent Sale Report/Realtor Assistance Needed.

I walked by this house today that sold a month ago near Main and 41st.

Lowered the price to roughly the same as assessment that comes in at 1.65

Let’s see if I can get a response…

M43BC

219 E Woodstock Avenue, Vancouver, BC V5W 1M9

2017-11-08 : $1,735,000
2017-11-23 : $1,649,000

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/219-e-woodstock-avenue

#171 NotLegalAdvice on 02.20.18 at 9:52 pm

Maybe I misunderstood, but why can’t our market drop 40 percent? The way the interest rates are rising, it’s not affordable to have prices this high for anyone.

It doesn’t matter if your family income is $200k. You can’t afford a $1,000,000 house if interest rates are at 6 percent. Unless you have a massive down payment. In that case, you’re not a millennial.

I pursued further education. A younger me, more hopeful, thought being a lawyer would allow me to live in Toronto, without financial stress, oh man, was I ever wrong.

We’re all on the losing end. The Millennials, our parents that now get to live with us and see the poor individuals we have come. I guess advising us to further our education wasn’t the most brilliant plan.

Moving to Quebec? Meh, if I spoke French, maybe I would have considered the same. But any job prospects out there for a young lawyer? Probably not.

#172 Stone on 02.20.18 at 9:53 pm

#148 ben on 02.20.18 at 8:57 pm
> words you will regret

If you mean from a personal angle, yes, but that was not my thought when writing them.

It’s also a fact.

And here’s another. What has happened over the past 25 years is *absolutely unforgivable*. We had our entire future sold from under us. It’s disgusting. I know there will be no acceptance of responsibility in this blog (and before the boomers start – I have a good job/family etc), I’m thinking of others when I state this distaste for selling the future for cheap thrills.

Anyhow, it really is nearly over. Soon on a forum when you criticise the boomers there will not be a single person typing “I’m a boomer but…” etc. That is a fact.

——-

That was pretty pitiful. In a couple of generations after the mills, some loser same as you will say:

“What has happened over the past 25 years is *absolutely unforgivable*. We had our entire future sold from under us. It’s disgusting.“

That loser will be blaming the mills. You know. You!

So, in the end, you’re just a whiny loser with a lack of perspective.

#173 young & foolish on 02.20.18 at 9:53 pm

“Going to build a beautiful custom home on acreage for < $1.2 million."

Just curious … why bother? You are in your 50s, well off … why not just buy an old place, or even rent and do a little travel.

#174 Andrew Woburn on 02.20.18 at 9:53 pm

#53 jim on 02.20.18 at 6:26 pm
“Quebec City. Halifax. Kingston. Montreal. London. Edmonton. Nanaimo. Regina. Charlottetown.”

Ummm, no.

Have you looked at prices in some of these areas lately? Let’s take Nanaimo. It used to be a hard knuckle, blue collar town with sketchy areas around the small downtown waterfront. This is not a high class city.

Prices? Very high by price/rent and price/income ratios.
==================

We are very happy living in Nanaimo but I have to agree it is very expensive in relation to similar size Canadian towns. This is something I had to constantly remind myself when we were house hunting. It is very easy to think it’s cheap but that is only in relation to Vancouver, not to family incomes or any other “real” measure.

Prices have risen by 50% since we moved over in 2012. However I think the rate of growth will start to stall as Vancouver retirees find it hard to sell their SFH at prices they have come to think as normal. However I think the influx of new buyers over the last five years has absorbed a lot of inventory and prices of higher end properties here will be sticky on the downside for a few years.

#175 IHCTD9 on 02.20.18 at 9:54 pm

#65 MF on 02.20.18 at 6:37 pm
#29 Howard on 02.20.18 at 5:34 pm

We all know that. I don’t believe anyone who says Toronto is “correcting”. Zero chance.

Rent still a waste, too.

MF
————-

But you’re not leaving because you got the “hustle and bustle” that you like in Toronto right?

The question you need to ask yourself is ”how much is that bustle worth?”

I have no idea what a guy would pay for that, but I offer a humble guess as to the asking price:

Everything you’ve got, and then some…

#176 Newcomer on 02.20.18 at 10:01 pm

Let’s look at what would happen in Vancouver if prices dropped by 30%. The average detached is 2.7 M, so we can’t really expect it to drop to much less than 2. Based on 4 times income, the salary for someone looking to buy the average house would be 500K per annum. For post-correction townhouses, you could be looking at as little as 900 K, so at just 225K per annum, the average townhouse would be available to BC’s 1%, but nobody else.

Either I’m going to be living among some of the richest people on the planet, or inflation is going to make the 80s look tame, or prices will have further to fall.

#177 Kimmy Kincaide on 02.20.18 at 10:02 pm

Garth, you forgot WINNIPEG!

#178 450sq-ft condo on 02.20.18 at 10:02 pm

There’s a reason you can get a 200k house in these places.. there’s no work and nothing to do

Seemingly everytime I’m advised to go live somewhere else… it’s a boomer… smugly living in Toronto.

#179 Walter Safety on 02.20.18 at 10:03 pm

Was in PEI for a wedding this past Saturday. Him a painter , her a server/fish plant worker- 22/23.
They will buy a house almost immediately for 75k or will buy a lot for 25 k and friends and family will help them build 1000 sq ft for another 90k.
When babies arrive they will go to one income.
Weather was fine too.
Breakfast bagel is 4.99. In Calgary it’s 10.99.
Anyway the Chinese have noticeably arrived in Charlottetown. House prices are up in the city but I don’t think for any reason but the usual – more government money around.
Biggest problem on PEI is drivers not taking the right of way when they have it . Pedestrians are given the right of way when their still 50 ft from the intersection lol.

#180 ben on 02.20.18 at 10:04 pm

167 David – I think it’s telling that people always assume that posts criticising the current system are self-motivated by financial difficulty. I’m absolutely fine, thanks.

But yet I’m not fine when I see others suffering due to a very flawed system. I want them to be fine too. And they can be, if we fix the land issue.

Land value tax is the way forward but first we need to get past a culture of something for nothing.

#181 ben on 02.20.18 at 10:05 pm

> lack of perspective

The perspective is this: the first generation to be poorer than their parents. In an age of wonder.

For shame.

#182 Chico on 02.20.18 at 10:06 pm

#88 Tulips on 02.20.18 at 7:21 pm

I wouldn’t be surprised if prices increased in Chilliwack by another 25% in the next five years. Then I’ll be forced out for sure.

——————————————————-

Why wait until you’re forced out when you seem to have a pretty good idea what’s coming?

#183 BlorgDorg on 02.20.18 at 10:08 pm

> Other markets may lose 40%. Urban 416 isn’t one of them. – Garth

—————————

Though I typically agree with you Garth, I’m going to do as you do with unsubstantiated claims and say: how do you figure, and based on what evidence?

Considering that “urban 416”, population-wise, now sits largely between Bloor and Lake Ontario, several stories above the ground, I’d contend that “urban 416” is poised for the largest decline of all. 40% is entirely possible.

#184 Alyssa on 02.20.18 at 10:08 pm

I feel like Matthieu could have found a rental option had he tried, but he really didn’t put that much into it, maybe he had already made up his mind. It’s his choice in the end, but I think there are still a lot of options for rent in this city, especially for people in his wealth range.
I think in the end, the north American idea of home ownership as the sole and tantamount option strikes again. Its our culture.

#185 Chico on 02.20.18 at 10:11 pm

#90 Cow Man on 02.20.18 at 7:25 pm

Cow Man

The only part of Canada that truly has a soul is Quebec. Everything else to the west of Quebec is for sale to the highest bidder.

—————————————————

That’s funny :)
As a “come from away,” long time Maritimers have told me that Canadians west of Quebec think that everything east of Quebec is Newfoundland :) It doesn’t seem to matter if you tell them your from New Brunswick or PEI, they just think were all Newfies.

#186 Mattl on 02.20.18 at 10:11 pm

Regina? Don’t know about that one. They are in their own bubble – a nice home in a good area is 500k. And the city is a dump, I should know, spent 18 years there and don’t even go back to visit. All my friends left. “Cheap” housing is no reason to live in a dump like Regina.

Halifax, Montreal, Kelowna, Comox and even Saskatoon are nice cities. But any list that has Regina on it is flawed.

#187 Samson Nights on 02.20.18 at 10:14 pm

Screwed Canadian Millennials, ever forget the exact root cause of where you are today.

Lack of Republican oversight a decade ago of a deregulated American investment banking system.

#188 ANON on 02.20.18 at 10:15 pm

Why not move to Quebec, where houses are much cheaper?

Blow a bubble here also. Told ya. :)

#189 Carol 'Jesse' James on 02.20.18 at 10:17 pm

“I wouldn’t even let my worst enemy set foot in Toronto, because the feminist movement will lead any average man into personal crisis and suffering that eventually leads to self-destruction. The majority of fem supporters hate men and they are actively engaged in warfare against men.”

Garth ::::: Is this why you shifted out of that gold diggers paradise?

#190 IHCTD9 on 02.20.18 at 10:19 pm

#89 Pete from St. Cesaire on 02.20.18 at 7:23 pm
“Quebec City. Halifax. Kingston. Montreal. London. Edmonton. Nanaimo. Regina. Charlottetown.”
————————————————————————
I’d change it to: Quebec City, Sherbrooke, Belleville, Charlottetown, Windsor, Peterborough, Gatineau, Regina, St. Hyacinthe.
————

I’d get rid of Peterborough and substitute Hastings. Peterborough is rough, Hastings is beautiful but not too far away. The local news coming out of Peterborough always had crazy incidents like cops showing up at a bar to break up a drunken brawl, only to have a couple of the combatants jump in the cop car and take off lol! I spent many nights bar hopping in PB in my youth, it was fun if you liked fighting drunks out on the sidewalk. It was a blue collar rough town back in the 80’s, maybe it’s changed some…

I was in Gatineau last November, nice town. Only bad thing was getting back over that bridge. I like Ottawa as well, I’d definitely live in a small town near it.

#191 blippiestblop on 02.20.18 at 10:20 pm

Quebec City. Halifax. Kingston. Montreal. London. Edmonton. Nanaimo. Regina. Charlottetown.”

Bit of an odd collection there Garth. Why not throw in Toktoyuktuk and Hamilton. After all who would want to live in Nanaimo. They closed the gogo bars years ago.

#192 Robert Malthus on 02.20.18 at 10:21 pm

“The prodigious waste of human life occasioned by this perpetual struggle for room and food, was more than supplied by the mighty power of population, acting, in some degree, unshackled, from the constant habit of emigration.” R. Malthus

‘Tis a great pity that, for lack of the Internet, I was unable to convince the world that most of you should not exist.

#193 FightorFlight on 02.20.18 at 10:23 pm

Just returned home in Toronto after testing 2 months in Chiang Mai, Thailand. We’re going back to retire. 10000+ expats and many Canadians. Most Thai speak english.
Sample expenses:
-$400/month for nice new 2bed condo. or buy for $90k with no property tax and $45/month maintenance fees.
-$150/month for all inclusive medical plan.
-$2/meal for low or $10/meal high end.
-$10 unlimited data mobile phone plans

Bye-bye!

#194 blippiestblop on 02.20.18 at 10:24 pm

Meanwhile in other breaking news, The global heart throbs Trudeaus are completing their coming of age trip in India, which some journohacks are comparing to a lonely planet voyage, without a single high level meeting with the Indian head of state Modi?

https://theprint.in/2018/02/19/all-family-and-no-work-justin-trudeaus-lonely-48-hours-in-india/

I hope they at least flew coach, but more likely it was Air Farce 1.

#195 Chico on 02.20.18 at 10:25 pm

#148 ben on 02.20.18 at 8:57 pm

> words you will regret

If you mean from a personal angle, yes, but that was not my thought when writing them.

It’s also a fact.

And here’s another. What has happened over the past 25 years is *absolutely unforgivable*. We had our entire future sold from under us. It’s disgusting. I know there will be no acceptance of responsibility in this blog (and before the boomers start – I have a good job/family etc), I’m thinking of others when I state this distaste for selling the future for cheap thrills.

Anyhow, it really is nearly over. Soon on a forum when you criticise the boomers there will not be a single person typing “I’m a boomer but…” etc. That is a fact.

———————————————

You’re not the sharpest tool in the shed are you Ben?

#196 Asterix1 on 02.20.18 at 10:30 pm

#156 Stone on 02.20.18 at 9:17 pm

People have friends in Toronto? I thought they were all empty shelled acquaintances. Culture? Seriously? What a revelation. Please, tell me more. LOL
__________________________________________

Please, tell me less.

#197 Chico on 02.20.18 at 10:37 pm

#150 Bc born on 02.20.18 at 9:10 pm

Salmon arm
Anglemont
Celista
Scotch creek
Chase
Pritchard
Kamloops
Savona
Cache creek
Clinton
Barrier
Little fort
Clearwater
Avola
Blue river
Valemount
100 mile house
Williams lake
Quesnel
Kersley
Prince George
Keep heading west or north
Great fishing and hunting

——————————————————-

We looked when it was time to leave Langley, but the prices were still far, far too high for what we thought they should be. Even in little old Penticton or OK Falls, prices are stupid. We swapped coasts, live 15 minutes from the ocean for a fraction of the cost of BC. 45,000 people in our county, 2600 sq. ft. brick house, double car garage (brick) – replacement cost of house – 1/2 mill. – cost us 150

There are all kinds of good opportunities in our country for those who stop navel gazing.

#198 Chico on 02.20.18 at 10:40 pm

#155 Dobermanduke on 02.20.18 at 9:17 pm

A great percentage of the time a kid from small town Canada has to leave his friends and family and move to a big city in order to work in his chosen field. Doesn’t bitch and complain and isn’t looking for any sympathy. As soon as someone from the city is faced with moving in order to get what they desire, they want the situation around them to conform.

—————————————————-

THE BEST AND MOST ACCURATE COMMENT OF THE NIGHT!!!!!!!

#199 IHCTD9 on 02.20.18 at 10:53 pm

Took a look at the link. Nice house at first glance except for the fact that all 1st floor windows have bars over them. What kind of neighbourhood requires that?

————-

Take heart! Ad makes a prominent note:

“new police precinct nearby!”

I think NJ has insane property taxes too.

#200 No Effect on 02.20.18 at 10:57 pm

So what? Governments now are making things worse, not better. Everyone has dirty fingers. – Garth

————————-

How could the NDP government possibly make things worse with measures to crack down on domestic and foreign speculation which have hollowed out cities and created economic and social stress and strife?

After all, these measures will have no effect right because foreign speculation is a figment of everyone’s imagination.

And these measures will have no effect since your narrative has just changed to telling everyone to ‘leave the city’ if you don’t like it because a correction is not coming. That is so reminscent of the real estate bulls for the past decade.

Beside, government created the bubble – maybe a government will help restore affordability…

#201 Smoking Man on 02.20.18 at 11:06 pm

13 years ago today when Hunter ate a built.

I had no idea who he was back then. Wasent schooled, never paid attention or cared who the cultural icons of our times were.

To busy building businesses and making loot. But thanks to this pathetic idea exchange experiment a few dogs pointed him out.

I read fear and loathing as the first fiction book I ever read. I was hooked. Read everything else. Even visited the bar he would hang out in on my road trip to California.
I was so inspired I wrote one myself. Thank God I’m not famous because of it. That’s my high water mark.

Drugs dident kill him. He set the bar so high and made the mistake of becoming famous. He could no longer deliver , or out do himself so he took the easy way out.

Every Milenial should read his books.

He was the supreme Dr of Herdonomics.

Dedicate this post to Hunter.

#202 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 02.20.18 at 11:18 pm

#121 Chelsea on 02.20.18 at 8:06 pm
need more precise clarification on the speculation tax, does it relate to certain cities as announced, or all of B.C.?

=====================================

The new tax will apply to Metro Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Capital and Nanaimo Regional Districts, and in the municipalities of Kelowna and West Kelowna.

http://bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2018/homesbc/2018_Homes_For_BC.pdf

#203 HouseBuster on 02.20.18 at 11:28 pm

Well Quebec City isn’t Toronto.

#204 NorVanMan on 02.20.18 at 11:30 pm

Reading over the NDP 30 point plan there is no mention of 20% foreigner tax expanding to Squamish. Any word? With the lousy traffic and runaway housing prices in the Valley now, Squamish needs it more than anywhere.

#205 IHCTD9 on 02.20.18 at 11:42 pm

#153 conan on 02.20.18 at 9:14 pm

The Ontario election coming up….. its going to be a statement vote by almost every woman living in Ontario voting Not/ Nay/ Never/ Conservative
———-

Surprisingly, the Cons are up 7% since Brown got the boot.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/02/19/half-of-ontarians-would-vote-for-pcs-in-next-election-poll.html

Not sure what to read into that. Wynne hasn’t said much while Brown’s ex-girlfreinds are all over the CBC and the Star defending him.

Funny how things turn out. I’ve never said a single good word regarding Brown, but since he got me-torpedo-ed, I’m starting to think maybe he’s not so bad. He’s certainly showing some spunk right now.

#206 A Yank in BC on 02.20.18 at 11:44 pm

The BC Finance Minister said today..

“B.C.’s real estate market should not be used as a stock market,”

Does this statement strike anyone else as being completely nonsensical.. especially that last part? Oh well.. I suppose it will appeal to those who voted for her boss.

#207 Ronaldo on 02.20.18 at 11:54 pm

This one is for you SCM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ic3xNfEP_o

#208 Newcomer on 02.21.18 at 12:03 am

The geographical cure has its limitations. I left NYC in 2006 to seak a more affordable, laid-back life in Vancouver. It worked out in some respects.

#209 Dave on 02.21.18 at 12:18 am

Does anyone here know if Whistler Pemberton and Squamish are included in the new foreign tax?

#210 Stan Brooks on 02.21.18 at 12:23 am

Chronicles of a fancy sock:

The guy went to see Bollywood and Taj Mahal with his family.

On our/taxpayers expenses.

https://ca.style.yahoo.com/sophie-trudeau-stuns-one-meghan-slideshow-wp-130312213/photo-p-strong-feb-20-2018-photo-130312157.html

https://ca.style.yahoo.com/sophie-trudeau-stuns-one-meghan-slideshow-wp-130312213/photo-p-strong-feb-18-2018-photo-130312499.html

#211 Vanecdotal on 02.21.18 at 12:25 am

As promised, the Unraveling Dumpster Fire Sweater™ that is YVR just got the fire hose. Over-leveraged babies may get thrown out with the bathwater. Plan accordingly.

#212 Ca$h money on 02.21.18 at 12:29 am

Not sure what got into you last couple days Garth ; you sound very defeatist.

NDP budget was a great first step to teaching people that houses are not commodities. I’m actually optimistic on what the NDP can do here. I think you are correct about the prime locations not correcting 40% but everything else will have a reality check in the next few years with rising rates and greater transparency.

Tomorrow is a new day so don’t give up the fight!

#213 Stan Brooks on 02.21.18 at 12:30 am

But nobody should expect 40% declines in YVR or the GTA.

——————————

That brings prices to levels from 2013. No?

So why that talk since 2008 on this blog on housing bubbles? To sell some investment services?

I think we underestimate the power of automation.
In my mind the whole GTA will experience 70-80 % decline in real values once 60 % of the jobs disappear in the next decade.

It is already unaffordable place for many people with houses and condos.

Definitely not a place to raise kids.

Jobs already starting to disappear.

Wait once inflation hits and crime rises.

Watch for these payday loans places growing like mushrooms. Indicating ‘wealth’.

And to add insult to injury imagine the wild bill trying to pick you pocket with his fairness.

I think Istanbul is becoming much better place to live then GTA. What will be next, Tehran?

#214 Big Daddy on 02.21.18 at 12:52 am

DELETED

#215 Stan Brooks on 02.21.18 at 12:57 am

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-payday-insolvency-growing-1.4532866

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/hamilton-considering-legislation-limit-number-090004878.html

#216 Bitcoinnaire on 02.21.18 at 1:09 am

Matt is a software developer and yet no Buttcoin? What happened?

Just a few of those “Cryptos” and he could have purchased his dream decaying plywood monster home from some decaying Boomer. Not that he should have. The Boomers are already heavily subsided, and helping them cash out on a pile of plywood with liquid cash is highly irrational.

Deny the Boomer their greater fool. Flip off the house flipper ex-plasterer who brags about making $300K (in his dreams). The Boomer-driven pension funds are already clamoring to pile into Crypto assets, just a few more regulatory hurdles before they do.

The future is driven by smart contracts on a decentralized, public ledger, where value is immutable, instant and cryptographically secure. Don’t get stuck with Boomer-era assets like homes (bonds issued by governments trying to pay for healthcare costs for Boomers).

#217 Matthew on 02.21.18 at 1:11 am

Great post and something I’m beginning to worry about as I finish by degree and my wife and I are thinking about starting a family. Even on two incomes, I don’t know how we will be able to house a kid or two even remotely close to work and family. Is it too much to ask for a stable living situation in a 2 br+den or 3 br place that doesn’t cost 50% of our income?

#218 Kristi on 02.21.18 at 1:34 am

Condo developer demands 15% more money from buyers after New Westminster project hits delays:
hyttp://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4542538
Any comments?

#219 Tony on 02.21.18 at 1:46 am

Re: #27 Blutterfy on 02.20.18 at 5:29 pm

To date Edmontonians still haven’t figured it out. You buy a resale townhouse for one-third the price what a new townhouse would cost (A hundred and ten grand will buy several hundred townhouses as sellers will gladly sell for 20 to 30 percent less than ask). The older townhouses are block construction and will last 4 to 5 times longer than a new build. The disparity in prices between new and resale in Edmonton must be among the highest in the entire world yet the people in Edmonton year after year decade after decade never figure it out.

#220 Leo Trollstoy on 02.21.18 at 1:58 am

#1 dakkie on 02.20.18 at 4:42 pm
Deja vu – Canada’s Housing Market looks a lot like US prior to collapse

hey look! i found the same article published 2 years ago in 2016

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/canadas-housing-market-looks-a-lot-like-the-u-s-did-in-2006/

im surprised that they dusted it off so soon. my guess is that they’ll publish again in 2020!

lol

#221 A123 on 02.21.18 at 2:01 am

I have been reading this blog for a long long time, since you wrote the book “Greater Fool”.Then you were stating not to invest in housing. Then houses doubled, perhaps tripled. In hindsight, it would have been advisable to have invested in housing then.
Now GTA and Vancouver is not affordable. You say that kids should move elsewhere. Don’t expect a 40% drop.
Why not.
There are lots of huge homes with boomers living in them. They won’t be there forever. Who will buy at those inflated prices?
Your charts in the past, show we are like the USA in 2007-2008.
Houses dropped 50% or more.
Why not the same drop here?
If people buy houses, and cannot afford them, then who,is going to buy these overpriced homes if interest rates go up.
Toronto is nothing special, not really world class.
I have no problem leaving, even though I was born here.

Please explain the change of heart about why houses will not drop 40%.
You have often quoted,
“This will not end well”

#222 Leo Trollstoy on 02.21.18 at 2:02 am

#48 Why Bother on 02.20.18 at 6:12 pm
So if a 40% price correction will not materialize in YVR or the GTA, then what was the point of outlining the pitfalls of high priced real estate in these urban centers for 10 years?

the point was to help ppl avoid making stupid financial decisions

#223 Leo Trollstoy on 02.21.18 at 2:07 am

toronto is a nice place if u have money

lots to do, eat, see and experience

toronto sucks turds if you don’t have money

nothing to do, see, eat or experience

#224 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 02.21.18 at 2:42 am

#15 The spangler from yesterday, asking about data showing % of income devoted to housing.

————————————————
US data not Canadian, but mhanson.com has good charts on this. Mark Hanson

#225 Midnights on 02.21.18 at 3:06 am

Be careful what you wish for…
Socialism Always Moves to Tyranny
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/socialism-always-moves-to-tyranny/

#226 Platu6 on 02.21.18 at 4:26 am

Wow, talk about capitulation.

I’ve been a reader of this blog shortly after Lehman back around 2009-2010 or so – and the tone on Canadian housing has been unequivocally negative and warning of impending drawdowns. Instead, housing in 416/604 has gone anywhere from 200-300% higher unlevered, which means 400-800% higher depending on your mortgage leverage.

No 60/40 or any mortal equity portfolio will come anywhere close to that return, especially when you take the crazy sharpe ratio / risk-adjusted returns into consideration.

What Garth (and a lot of us) have missed over the past decade is the power of the global central bank printing press / negative rates / QE etc which are are pushing income disparities wider globally, leading to hoarding of the same type of assets everywhere (housing, stocks, cash-flow yielding projects). Globalization and the liberal infatuation with free trade also means that global money is fungible and the money centers of London/NY/Tokyo/Hong Kong/Shanghai are free flooding the globe and bidding up global real estate. The ones who are priced out of North Asia now are simply migrating to Phillipines / Vietnam / Bangkok and their locals have the *exact* same complaints as my fellow Canadians. Governments have been slow / unable to act to create macro-prudential measures to protect the locals from having affordable lodging. This move to protectionism (whether it’s Trump/NDP/New Zealand) is just the beginning.

Furthermore, the strong market to market / realized gains from those who bought at *any* time in the past decade means they are so far ahead of the race that they can keep rolling it over to buy more and more expensive houses with enough “buffer” in the game that the non-asset holders can only look and wish doom upon them.

I’ve lived in probably 3-4 of the most expensive cities in the world over the past 15 years and the problem is the same everywhere. What I’ve learned since (and I wish some mentor taught me earlier) is that globalization and free trade (without local protectionism) means that capital is freely fungible anywhere and anytime, and real estate is no longer “local”. Price to income ratios are meaningless as you are no longer competing with just your friendly neighbours and comrades but with people of all walks across the globe.

With the proliferation of internet and information symmetry on public investments globally it just means that the “attractive” areas like HK/604/416/London/Manhattan/Tokyo/Bangkok/Sydney/Lisbon will be owned by a smaller and smaller % of the 5% or 1% class and the exponential component of their giant wealth effect means that they can buy way more units in a faster time than the rest of us can afford the 1st downpayment. That’s why all the locals (everywhere) complain and hope for a housing crash as that is the only way the gap is ever going to be closed. Unfortunately, with everyone’s skin now in the game, the government cannot afford such a thing and we can even see the most resolute of the housing bears throwing in the towel.

As such, my takeaway lesson on housing is (which I wish I learned much earlier) – always buy your first home, as soon as you can, but only as much as you can afford. Crashes are lottery tickets which are of pure luck and not everyone will have the best entry point. Otherwise unless you are a demi-god investor (in which case you should be opening a 2/20 hedge fund) , the growth in your wealth is probably going under-perform what you can get in a levered long position in housing in a core urban area, and you are going to end up less affordable the more you wait. If you wait for too long, you end up in the scenario that Garth described where you have to move away from the city you want to live in in the first place (along with jobs / friends etc), and have basically “lost” in this relative game of income/resource accumulation.

There is really no sugar-coating around this last part. If your objective is to live in a place you want to live and provide resources to your loved ones the way you want to provide, then you are (whether you like it or not) in a resource accumulation game and it’s becoming increasingly competitive and global as the years past. With the rest of Asia emerging quicker and quicker expect this competition to get worst over the next decade as we lift an unprecedented number of global citizens into middle class. Afterall, most of us are after the same living standards / locations and the money is produced way faster than any productive assets can hope to match.

Good luck to everyone

#227 Stan Brooks on 02.21.18 at 5:32 am

Matt is not so drastic case.

How about a VP in a mayor bank with wife Project manager, no kids, with tons of benefits, who can not afford a house in GTA (estimated in 2014!, imagine now)

And how about a director in a mayor company/with wife IT contractor, 2 kids who can not afford a house either.

both families leaving Toronto.

2 mil house in Vaughan. 1.2 in Mississauga. Really?
I guarantee you that 2 doctors, no kids can not make it these days in Toronto due to high cost of housing.
Maybe they should be living in basements?

Is this the breaking point of a society, when doctors can not live in a city whose population they serve?

Who will treat your gonorrhea and tripper or more obvious causes of mass delusion and mental illnesses?

Sad, sad story.

And GT, how much you think are worth the shacks in Vaughan and Mississauga and how much will they decline from the top?

40 %?
So a house worth 310 k in 2000 is now worth 1.2 mil (currently prices at 2? With average income of bellow 70 k for Vaughan before taxes?

Sure. Pass the booze.

#228 Jimmi jimjim on 02.21.18 at 5:48 am

Just sold my three apt rental house near a west end subway. Got what i wanted and they took a not so great tenant.

No more phone calls, breakdowns, roof leaks, tenants not getting along…

I’m happy and OUT.

#229 Howard on 02.21.18 at 6:15 am

#153 conan on 02.20.18 at 9:14 pm

#107 Hugh Janus on 02.20.18 at 7:41 pm

Whatever buddy.

At least 2 sessions before anyone will consider giving a majority to the Fed Conservatives.

The Ontario election coming up….. its going to be a statement vote by almost every woman living in Ontario voting Not/ Nay/ Never/ Conservative.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KxMc_tyQBo

————————————

Not all women are imbeciles, conan. Shame on you for thinking that.

Forum poll came out a couple days ago shows PC 49, Lib 24. Brown debacle a nothing-burger for voter intentions. Might have even helped the PCs given that Brown was never particularly likeable.

I remind you that men still have the right to vote too, although I expect the Liberals to rescind male suffrage within the next few years.

#230 Howard on 02.21.18 at 6:28 am

She’s probably right, and that’s depressing for our federation.

The Trans Mountain pipeline will never be built

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/the-trans-mountain-pipeline-will-never-be-built/article38037368/

#231 Nick on 02.21.18 at 6:43 am

Re: Screwed Canadian Millenial’s request for more posting privileges. Garth, please don’t bump up their allowance. I thought Smoking Man was bad before, but now I’ll take him over SCM any day.

Steerage section indeed!

#232 maxx on 02.21.18 at 7:03 am

#41 Howard on 02.20.18 at 5:59 pm

“………Boomers……………have plenty left over to winter down south a few months every year until they either die or enter long term care.”

You mean, the very same way you will?

Careful, bilious frustration and hate-mongering shortens lifespan. Always has. Millennial wannabee whining, too.

https://www.sharecare.com/health/live-to-one-hundred/article/how-anger-shorten-life

Imagine what the average Mill could do with that energy by focusing it on building wealth?

Many Millennials could very well end up vying for LTC real estate as well, given the accelerated ageing effects of off-the-wall, self-imposed rage.

Yikes….synchronized ageing…..imagine the horror of sharing LTC facilities with Mills.

Now there’s a great reason to move.

#233 Government Town on 02.21.18 at 7:17 am

Lived in Toronto, now living in Ottawa. It’s a bit more cold, but at least a traffic jam takes less than an hour to get through.
More importantly, you can find a townhouse for under $200k, and a semi-detach home for under $300k.

#234 Eyestrain on 02.21.18 at 7:34 am

Too bad. But moaning won’t fix it. Or voting NDP. Or blaming yellow people. – Garth

I know mostly red and blue people, a few orange and a smattering of green. What surprises me is how easily people change their colour, blaming whoever didn’t make their dreams come true. I blame colour TV, or more properly, the TV dream merchants.

The Internet is just TV in your pocket, personalized medicine for the Id and the Ego. When Trump nationalizes 5G we will all become orange.

#235 Samson Nights on 02.21.18 at 7:49 am

#205 IHCTD9 on 02.20.18 at 11:42 pm

(C)onservative ≠ (c)onservative

The trouble with (c)onservatives in Ontario is that they keep elevating, promoting, and electing (C)onservatives to lead their party.

Brown is almost 40, un-married, no kids, and has been a closet politician all his life. He can’t relate to squat about the challenges of raising a family in Ontario, and no, Patrick, press conferences and photo-ops with your sisters in tow does not a family make. That’s just beyond weird.

After twice snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, it’s clear Ontario (C)onservatives have learned nothing from their past mistakes:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/patrick-brown-accused-of-dirty-politics-1.4543691

Sigh, another 4 years of Liberal larceny and corruption.

#236 maxx on 02.21.18 at 7:54 am

#55 TurnerNation on 02.20.18 at 6:27 pm

“Yup Springtime and a young man’s thoughts turn to Shove.
(Take this house and…. it)”

Very well put.

It’s a simple, little equation – a tug-of war between greedy sellers, FIRE and potential buyers.
So far, buyers who FOMO’d at the mouth have bid the re market up to the stratosphere……much to the frustration of left-over buyers. Remains to be seen how many of these greater fools get pulled into the mud going forward.

#237 Hamsterwheelie on 02.21.18 at 8:14 am

We were fortunate that someone with more money and sense than we had was able to lead us out of the big smoke.
Yes I was guilty of thinking TO was the center of the Canadian universe – happily shown a different and much more prosperous path.
My favourite comment so far on this post?
#3 FightorFlight – Spending all or most of winter somewhere else in the world is something I did in my carefree youth and I’m now working my way back towards it. Still wanting to spend half the year in beautiful Ontario w friends and family but we might be right behind you or wherever else is most favourable within the next 4 years :-) :-)

#238 Jay (not that one) on 02.21.18 at 8:22 am

0 sympathy for people claiming they can’t possibly move from Toronto or Vancouver.

In my life, I had to move for school. Then again for career. Then again to continue my career. Then again to buy an affordable house.

Sucks? Maybe, but I stand a chance of retiring. Do you really want to die at work in your 80s owing more than you own?

“But my parents will lose their friends!” — tough. If they want to live in million dollar homes so bad, they can pay for them.

#239 maxx on 02.21.18 at 8:33 am

#62 jim on 02.20.18 at 6:35 pm

“….Vancouver is even less affordable than Silicon Valley, so I fail to see how they hope to lure people away from the USA.”

Agree, but delusion runs rampant up here.

Being young, educated, living in warmer climes and earning USD is a great way to go.

Save your butt off. With enough FU money, silly, SOX-country carrots will no longer attract and you will call the shots in your life.

#240 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.21.18 at 8:37 am

@#179 Walter safety
“Biggest problem on PEI is drivers ….”
+++++

100% agreement.
I have NEVER seen so many people that tailgate!
Young old male female…..they all tailgate.
90 miles an hour right up your ass and then sit there….for miles….
A weird PEI thing.

#241 Renter's Revenge! on 02.21.18 at 8:52 am

The way I see it, there’s not enough room for everyone to fit in the downtown of a city, so there needs to be a system for deciding who can live there and who has to leave. The system we have is called “money”, and whoever has the most money “wins” the right to live where they want. Maybe in other places and other times, there were other systems for deciding where people got to live, such as “honour” in feudal Japan or “family connections” in feudal Europe. But our system is arguably better than other systems used in the past because at least you can do something about your situation. You can bitch and moan about how unfair the system is, but no matter what other system you come up with, such as “born there”, it’s always going to be unfair to someone.

#242 Rooster on 02.21.18 at 8:53 am

If a bluebottle flaps its wings on the Humber, it rains money on the adjacent properties. There is little else to see in Toronto, and even less to do. The city lost its centre when the Gardens became a Loblaw, and the whores moved from Yonge to Bay. Hogtown’s growth is constrained by the lake, once a convenient sewer for the offal from the meat packing plants, now substituted by condominiums.

Chicago has the same roots, but the city has a soul. Music, arts, architecture, and a welcoming waterfront. Crime is a problem, but the politicians do get time, sometimes. Unaffordable urban housing is nothing new, and is not always permanent. Detroit would kill to have Toronto’s problems.

If the hipsters want the downtown vibe, build a St Pete’s North, north of the city (not Kirkland Lake), and give the aged semi owners somewhere else to go. They have plenty of time for the occasional commute.

#243 FLHTK on 02.21.18 at 8:54 am

I think he’s doing the smart thing and he will be way better off for doing it. Not enough young people do this, too scared to leave their families and mom and dad.
I hear this all the time from young people coming out of university….there are no jobs here, i say yes there are you just have to be willing to move for them.
Young moisters are scared to leave the nest.

#244 bubu on 02.21.18 at 9:08 am

Canada is busy with real estate… no money to invest in startups for the new engineers….

As an energy bear market weighs on the TSX, investors are missing out on tech: http://www.macleans.ca/economy/money-economy/canadas-stock-market-is-the-worst-in-the-world/

#245 Tater on 02.21.18 at 9:08 am

#19 Lee on 02.20.18 at 5:17 pm
Tater,

Try to find something liveable for a family of 4 in a deecnt part of Toronto for $736,000. All you’ll get is a 500-600 foot condo with maybe one parking spot.
—————————————————————-
Detached down 18% and semi’s down 16% over the same time period.

I’m not saying Toronto will get to the point where a household income below 200k will get you a SFDH walking distance to the subway. What I am saying is that a peak to trough drawdown of 40% is likely.

#246 bubu on 02.21.18 at 9:14 am

@ #219 Tony

There is only one townhouse for $110k in Edmonton and you don’t want to live there…..

#247 James on 02.21.18 at 9:21 am

#201 Smoking Man on 02.20.18 at 11:06 pm

13 years ago today when Hunter ate a built.
I had no idea who he was back then. Wasent schooled, never paid attention or cared who the cultural icons of our times were.
To busy building businesses and making loot. But thanks to this pathetic idea exchange experiment a few dogs pointed him out.
I read fear and loathing as the first fiction book I ever read. I was hooked. Read everything else. Even visited the bar he would hang out in on my road trip to California.
I was so inspired I wrote one myself. Thank God I’m not famous because of it. That’s my high water mark.
Drugs dident kill him. He set the bar so high and made the mistake of becoming famous. He could no longer deliver , or out do himself so he took the easy way out.
Every Milenial should read his books.
He was the supreme Dr of Herdonomics.
Dedicate this post to Hunter.
……………………………………………………………………
Jesus Smoking Man you don’t know jack. Did you not read anything other than Casino guides in your spare time? To suggest that you are the resurrected version Hunter S Thompson is quite an affront to his heterogeneous and creative journalism methodology. Hunter S Thompson was a writer that many of us studied in University including works of such literary journalists as Tom Wolfe, Joan Didion, Nora Ephron, John McPhee, Lillian Ross, and Norman Mailer, to name but a few.

Hunter S Thompson did not eat a “built” he blew his chrome plated cranium off with a 45 cal pistol while he was on the phone with his spouse. He had a severe issue with drugs especially pain meds and was suffering from intense physical pain and discomfort as a result of a back injury, broken leg, hip replacement surgery, and a lung infection. His widow, Anita, said “that while the injuries were significant, they did not justify his suicide”. “His pain was unbearable at times, but was by no means terminal,” according to his widow Anita. The conclusion was that his mind altering pharmaceuticals had affected his logic. There were forewarning of his impending suicide in his last notes four days before his death. “No More Games. No More Bombs. No More Walking. No More Fun. No More Swimming. 67. That is 17 years past 50. 17 more than I needed or wanted. Boring. I am always bitchy. No Fun – for anybody. 67. You are getting Greedy. Act your old age. Relax – This won’t hurt.”

#248 TorontoBull on 02.21.18 at 9:28 am

@226
excellent post! agree we will see more protectionism.

#249 KLNR on 02.21.18 at 9:35 am

@#198 Chico on 02.20.18 at 10:40 pm
#155 Dobermanduke on 02.20.18 at 9:17 pm

A great percentage of the time a kid from small town Canada has to leave his friends and family and move to a big city in order to work in his chosen field. Doesn’t bitch and complain and isn’t looking for any sympathy. As soon as someone from the city is faced with moving in order to get what they desire, they want the situation around them to conform.
—————————————————-

THE BEST AND MOST ACCURATE COMMENT OF THE NIGHT!!!!!!!
_____________________

LOL. yuge generalization. whats wrong with you people?

#250 Guillaume on 02.21.18 at 9:39 am

“the easily-offended, gender-sensitive, over-educated, socially-engineered lefties we call Millennials got the short straw. ” And what about the generation that was 18 years old in Europe in 1914 ? That was a screwed generation… Let’s Forget about those envious whining millenials, maybe the home ownership is less than the previous generation but they have access to many goodies no one else had before like Electric cars and good legal weed !

#251 dosouth on 02.21.18 at 9:48 am

Had a visit from my Realtor making over 40k on our sale from late last fall. Just checking he says….is the propane tank full, are the holes in the wall fixed, maybe you’re leaving a few days earlier…the vendors were inquiring. Hadn’t heard from him in 3 months, except for him drinking our free booze and food at a Christmas open house.

House sold in 4 days not even enough time to put up a sign and now he informs me the market is “softer” in the Nanoose Bay area and pricing is soft, choose the right time. Yep, and no propane tank fill was not in contract, yep holes are filled and nope see you on closing the 28th…..they never change.

#252 IHCTD9 on 02.21.18 at 9:49 am

#235 Samson Nights on 02.21.18 at 7:49 am
#205 IHCTD9 on 02.20.18 at 11:42 pm

(C)onservative ≠ (c)onservative

The trouble with (c)onservatives in Ontario is that they keep elevating, promoting, and electing (C)onservatives to lead their party.
___________________________________

Conservatives as I’ve always understood them are unelectable in Ontario. No party promising to get the spending and debt under control can win until the SHTF. Brown was pretty red and center compared to most.

I’m voting Wynne for maximum catastrophic financial destruction in the shortest possible time. A “Conservative” minority will just waste years worth of time.

At the end of the day, it’s not the parties – it’s the voters; and Ontario is chock full of financial boneheads. Simple as that – look at the debt numbers, the proof is everywhere.

#253 IHCTD9 on 02.21.18 at 10:20 am

#243 FLHTK on 02.21.18 at 8:54 am

I hear this all the time from young people coming out of university….there are no jobs here, i say yes there are you just have to be willing to move for them.
Young moisters are scared to leave the nest.
__________________________________________

Plenty of them seen loathe to exit the profession they studied for to enable financial success. We’ve got two young guys who went through for teaching who are now certified machinists. Their apprenticeship cost them nothing and they probably make 60-65K per year with some OT. A far cry from what a full time Ontario teacher makes – but the reality is many of their teacher classmates either had to do part time stuff and wait for the day to come – or change careers.

One of these young guys has a wife who has a good government job in healthcare, they likely make 120+/year and live in a 150K house. These two will be mortgage free before 30. Think about the possibilities.

#254 Rooster on 02.21.18 at 10:22 am

First it was the Banks, now it’s the Telecoms teaching Grannies what was banned in Boston:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crtc-piac-telecom-sales-practices-bell-rogers-1.4543956

The CRTC used to investigate and publish their results results regarding telecom complaints. It seems they got too busy, so they created the Complaints for Telecom-Television Services (CCTS) with the specific mandate to not publish their findings. I called the CCTS once, but let’s just say I wasn’t totally satisfied. Independent ombudsman my a$$.

Who’s being served here?

#255 Game Over on 02.21.18 at 10:34 am

I am speaking in generalities when I say this because I love my parents and I know some lovely boomers that I have had the chance to work with and know on a personal level. There are many that do great work like Garth on this blog. To be honest, I don’t really look at it as an us vs them type thing..

However, lets look at this generation’s track record for a second. Apparently millennials are a bunch of entitled snow flakes but in reality boomers have never really been tested. Cradle to the grave in the western world, they have enjoyed the prosperity and growth over the last 50 years with little hardship. And yet, they presided over the biggest financial crisis this world has seen since the great depression. Worse, the mess was papered over and downloaded to this generation. Low interest rates and QE super charged asset prices to ridiculous levels and now boomers preside over and benefit from the largest wealth transfer in history as we fund their retirements!

I work in a large corporation and for the most part on the nights, the old guys sleep in the lunch room while the younger guys work. They say learn as much as you can from the older guys, but what is there to learn? These guys are bitter and don’t want to teach anyone anything because they think they have had it hard their whole lives. Are you F***ing kidding me? With paid off house, cottage and DB pension, life has been tough eh? Funny thing is, most of these guys don’t know F*** all because they coasted their whole life. Sometimes I think this example is a microcosm of society as a whole. They have the seniority and tell us how it’s going to be, but they don’t know.

Yeah I made a couple bucks in stock market from this crazy shit, but I believe the “recovery” and continued stock market/ housing growth has been at our expense. As the youth are mortgaged to the max, I assure you 100% that we are approaching this can that was kicked down the road by them and we will have to pay for it. Someone posted an article about Trumpism and Hunter S. Thompson’s Hells Angels and it clicked. 2pac was saying this in the 90’s about the system being broke, it is just going mainstream because before, it was just the inner cities and minorities getting screwed but now everyone is getting screwed. The decadence and greed is colour blind.

Garth, you are right, shut up or do something about it. We gotta put down our phones and start making something happen because we are the ones that have to deal with it. I am personally getting the hell out of Toronto ASAP. But honestly, if there is not going to be a meaningful correction, and people have to resort to moving to Regina, then why are we talking about RE anymore? Even the people over at Better Dwelling seem to be beating their head on a wall. May as well just post links to MLS listings in Sarnia and the # for the Uhaul truck.

Probably still gonna read it because I am addicted..

#256 NYCer on 02.21.18 at 10:37 am

Not sure why so many are complaining about affordability in T.O. especially if you have money.

Some say $200k income is not enough, doctors/laywers and VPs not enough. What kind of lifestyle are they looking at?

Millennials cannot save for downpayments? Yes you can and without help from parents for the bank of mommy and daddy.

It’s called living within your means and knowing what makes you happy in life. No one needs a detached 3,000 sq ft house in downtown Toronto (do they even exist?).

Having a $400k downpayment at age 33 is possible when buying your home while having a $200k income (starting much lower obviously when gradutating).

Proplr with average incomes may not be able to afford but I find it hard to believe VP, Directors cannot afford.

All of my Millennials friends are doing well. All have homes, good paying jobs and starting families. Many have had help, many do not.

#257 A J on 02.21.18 at 10:39 am

There’s no one-size-fits-all approach. Not everyone can move. My Mom’s a widow and relies on me for a lot of things. If I moved it’d be a last resort because leaving her would be very difficult. But that’s MY decision. You can judge if you want, I really don’t care. For me, my Mother is very important. More important than RE. Again, it’s different for everyone though. Your parents might be a-holes, so you have no incentive to stay. More power to you. But we shouldn’t paint everyone with the “Shut up and move” brush, IMO. I understand the sentiment but life is so much more complicated than making a black or white decision. And two other things, not every millennial is staying in the city because they cannot leave their parents….trust me. A lot are staying because their parents are throwing money at them to stay. So, it’s not like we’re all big wussies too lazy and immature to move. A lot of it comes down to the parents too. At the first sniff of struggle, they open their pocket books. They’re just making things worst by putting a bandaid on a gushing wound. Also, the fact that social media didn’t exist in it’s current form even 15 years ago is a big reason why you see and hear so many complaints these days. You think if social media existed in the 70s, it’d be a happy, hippie atmosphere. Are you new to planet earth?

Fine. Stay put. My point was simple – then stop complaining. We all have choices. – Garth

#258 Smoking Man on 02.21.18 at 11:00 am

Ever since this Nictonite has been in California.
Strange things in the sky. Great Air Traffic control audio.
Ahhh.

http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/18473/faa-recordings-deepen-mystery-surrounding-ufo-over-oregon-that-sent-f-15s-scrambling

#259 SimplyPut7 on 02.21.18 at 11:02 am

Matt, on the other hand, is a genius. Quebec City. Halifax. Kingston. Montreal. London. Edmonton. Nanaimo. Regina. Charlottetown.

Move. Or shut up.
—————————

I think more people would be willing to leave if they could get jobs (that they want to do) easily in other places. But the GTA has a larger pool of employers than any of the other cities listed in your blog post.

Better transit that properly connects the entire Greater Golden Horseshoe Area would be an easier solution than moving to temporarily to another city that doesn’t feel like home.

#260 Fubared on 02.21.18 at 11:05 am

Oh oh. If Garth is saying this he must realize it’s inflation at any cost and we are going Japan. Normalizing rates has too much downside and if Japan can keep rates negative this long the bond market doesn’t matter/is easily manipulated(QE). I don’t see any other way we can keep this circus going and our government will never purposely reduce tax revenue with the way they are spending.

#261 Jorge on 02.21.18 at 11:07 am

Garth, if prices won’t decline 40% then that makes people who bought 5-10 years ago instead of going for the balanced portfolio look very smart, doesn’t it?

Me personally I don’t like the idea of having everything in the house either, which is why even Montreal is tough these days with $1 million dollar homes in the city and at least half a million in the West Island or other areas. Prices might have risen less but they certainly have risen a lot here, too.

Financial portfolios create cash flow and income and are 100% liquid. Houses costs big money to buy, own and sell. There is no straight comparison as you suggest. – Garth

#262 A J on 02.21.18 at 11:13 am

#257 A J

Fine. Stay put. My point was simple – then stop complaining. We all have choices. – Garth

I’m not complaining at all. I’m talking about my situation. Is there not a difference? I haven’t once tried to give off a “woe-is-me” attitude. I’m actually doing fine in my life. And I was more talking to the other commenters. But sorry, I guess? Sheesh.

The point of this blog post was simple. Everyone needs to stop expecting/demanding that government ‘fix’ housing prices which macroeconomics and human stupidity have caused. It won’t happen. So if you’re unhappy where you are, move. If you’re unable to move for emotional or economic reasons, accept your decision. – Garth

#263 Chico on 02.21.18 at 11:14 am

#257 A J on 02.21.18 at 10:39 am

There’s no one-size-fits-all approach. Not everyone can move. My Mom’s a widow and relies on me for a lot of things. If I moved it’d be a last resort because leaving her would be very difficult.

————————————————–

I like what you wrote, good insights. I have copied and pasted the part about it “would be very difficult,” because that is the biggest hurdle many people have to get over.

It is difficult. 2 weeks before we left Langley, my wife and I were out having a coffee. She said, “I don’t know if I can take any more.” I asked her what she meant, and she told me about all the goodbyes at work and all the crying. She is a nurse and had worked at Fraser Health for 11 years. She loves her work and had a lot of friends that she found really really hard to say goodbye to. By the time we left, she was spent, and I mean spent.

We made the move in the best interest of our family, specifically our 3 kids.

Only yesterday my wife mentioned how much her best friend and her miss each other. It’s a price that needed to be paid. We were being crushed by the economics and greed.

The first 6 months in our new home on the other side of the country, my wife was simply getting by, one day at at a time.

It’s difficult, but it’s a move we are very happy to have made. Our lives are much better, more relaxed, balanced…oh, and the beach is 15 minutes away!

#264 LivinLarge on 02.21.18 at 11:16 am

“Is it too much to ask for a stable living situation in a 2 br+den or 3 br place that doesn’t cost 50% of our income?”…apparantly yes it is in 2018. Post 2008 financial melt down world is dramatically different than pre melt down. Sad and unfortunate but no less real. The world irrevocably changed in 2008. Actually the change began in the mid ’70s but came home to rest in 2008. Too many people expecting too much from life than life had to give so the hammer comes down at some point.

There are many affordable and rewarding places to live. – Garth

#265 Springtime in Arkona on 02.21.18 at 11:22 am

I managed to salvage some of the Xmas boxes in the basement, but I won’t need the contents anymore. I’m moving to Jamaica mon, and converting to Rasta; one love, one tree (maybe I’ll grow t’ree).

” ‘Cause it’s not what you got
That will get you to God ”

A song for the masses:
https://genius.com/The-wild-reeds-only-songs-lyrics

#266 LivinLarge on 02.21.18 at 11:25 am

“Financial portfolios create cash flow and income and are 100% liquid. Houses costs big money to buy, own and sell. There is no straight comparison as you suggest. – Garth”…all correct but with more mouths at the teat than can be sustained it seems inevitable that the “markets” will do what markets always do…eat the individual mom and pop players alive. No idea when it will happen but it sure seems inevitable.

I had an editor in chief back in the early 2000s who closed each month’s editorial with a Chinese proverb “May you live in interesting times” and we certainly seem to be doing just that.

#267 Guy in Calgary on 02.21.18 at 11:27 am

Pretty much the reason this guy moved to Calgary. Sold shack in St Catharines to a poor sap for a good gain and got a nice place here. Higher income, lower cost of living, the rocky mountains… It is just so damn cold sometimes.

#268 LivinLarge on 02.21.18 at 11:31 am

“There are many affordable and rewarding places to live. – Garth” but of course there are…for now. When steak is unaffordable then people eat ground beef or chicken too.

When TO becomes unaffordable then Guelph and places east get run up. Too many people wanting too much and living longer and longer each year is nothing but a recipe for another disaster in the future somewhere else. It isn’t different now, it’s just in a different location.

#269 Radio Trenchtown on 02.21.18 at 11:31 am

#216 Bitcoinnaire on 02.21.18 at 1:09 am
Matt is a software developer and yet no Buttcoin? What happened?
*************

Matt’s side gig is internet Rasta Radio.
He’s streaming “Do the Limbo” right now.

#270 A J on 02.21.18 at 11:43 am

#263 Chico

I have total respect for your decision. That sounds so tough. More power to you both. At the end of the day, you have to make the decision that’s best for your family. Even if that means sacrifices. And it sounds like you made the right one.

And trust me, this is something that I’m still trying to figure out for myself. By writing here I’m trying to work through ideas, options and come to a solid conclusion. I’m in no way shape or form trying to come off like I’m whining about my situation. I’m literally working through my situation right now, in the present tense. So, I haven’t made a decision yet. I’ve given myself a 3 year window. And plan on setting a maximum date for living in the city at New Years 2021. I have a financial plan to move at that time, if it comes to it. So, this is very fluid for me. I think it is for everyone. Just because things aren’t working right now, doesn’t mean I have the ability to rent a U-Haul today and move to Regina. That’s not realistic in my opinion. And talking about where to steer your life is not complaining in my opinion, it’s talking out loud. It’s research. It’s discovery. And I personally am trying to figure out wtf to do now that a Toronto future doesn’t seem like it’s going to pan out.

#271 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 02.21.18 at 11:46 am

Legal scholar Ilya Somin has described foot voting as “a tool for enhancing political freedom: the ability of the people to choose the political regime under which they wish to live”.

Foot voting is expressing one’s preferences through one’s actions, by voluntarily participating in or withdrawing from an activity, group, or process; especially, physical migration to leave a situation one does not like, or to move to a situation one regards as more beneficial. People who engage in foot voting are said to “vote with their feet”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_voting

#272 Heloguy on 02.21.18 at 11:47 am

#240 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.21.18 at 8:37 am
@#179 Walter safety
“Biggest problem on PEI is drivers ….”
+++++

100% agreement.
I have NEVER seen so many people that tailgate!
Young old male female…..they all tailgate.
90 miles an hour right up your ass and then sit there….for miles….
A weird PEI thing.

If you are being tailgated in PEI, the tailgaters are not the problem, you are.

#273 Joe2.0 on 02.21.18 at 11:47 am

I bought a new car yesterday from a huge dealership in Vancouver.
It the office next to me was a Chinese fellow who had also bought a new 100k vehicle.
The interesting thing was that he was paying in cash.
He didn’t speak English from what I heard.
He was speaking the universal laundering language of cash.
Welcome to the land of milk and laundered money.

You are done here. – Garth

#274 Howard on 02.21.18 at 11:48 am

#255 Game Over on 02.21.18 at 10:34 am

That was a very good read. Please continue to post here.

Your comment about Boomers never really being tested is an interesting one. Boomers like to say they worked hard for their high-flying lot in life. And perhaps they are right. But the fact is that they didn’t actually NEED to work hard; the slackers “made it” right alongside the diligent. Additionally the downside risk of a failing entrepreneurial venture was also nowhere near what it is today.

I have encountered more Boomers in senior management position who are blithering idiots than I care to remember. Not so unusual, there are idiots in every generation. The difference is that Millennial idiots have to be content to work at McDonalds or WalMart for minimum wage for the rest of their lives while Boomer idiots took up residence in the C-Suite and take credit for the work done by the Millennials they manage.

You can’t choose your birth year and some were luckier than others, and in fairness, we are ALL lucky for having been born in a first world country. I agree with Garth that Millennials need to adjust to reality and leave Toronto/Vancouver if necessary, but it doesn’t mean they should do so without pointing out some inconvenient truths about the generation pushing them out.

#275 Go West, By' on 02.21.18 at 12:14 pm

I can’t believe that none of you have watched ” Goin’ Down the Road”, a gritty, 1970’s drama about two Capers who find hard luck in TO and head west. The Newfie sequel ” Westjet lost me luggage again, By’ Jesus ” is still in syndication. Nothing changes but the accents.

Don’t forget the Gold Medal game is tonite at 11 pm (12:30 in Nfld).
Canada’s gorgeous gals vs USA’s muffin tops. Don’t miss it! Seriously GREAT hockey!

#276 Fight on 02.21.18 at 12:16 pm

The point of this blog post was simple. Everyone needs to stop expecting/demanding that government ‘fix’ housing prices which macroeconomics and human stupidity have caused. It won’t happen. So if you’re unhappy where you are, move. If you’re unable to move for emotional or economic reasons, accept your decision. – Garth

Or if it is because or greed and government stupidity…fight

#277 Go West, By' on 02.21.18 at 12:20 pm

Correction: @ 1 am in Nfld.

I think Garth’s window is too small

#278 Go West, By' on 02.21.18 at 12:21 pm

Uncorrection still 1 am in nfld

#279 Go West, By' on 02.21.18 at 12:21 pm

i really meant 12:30 am

#280 paulo on 02.21.18 at 12:23 pm

when the day is said and done,poor governance by central bankers,greed and abuse of mortgage rules,lax enforcement of tax laws,and human nature,whereby the homegrown team (not Chinese or otherwise) have turned our residential real estate market into a speculators dream come true. its come to the point that the top 1% of income earners are hard pressed to be able to afford a home in 2 of our 3 major city’s how ridiculous is that. this nonsense threatens to undermine and destroy the social economic fabric of our country. what needs to be done is simple: the CRA instead of hammering restaurant servers in PEI over there tips should spend more time tracking down the big fish: speckers that are flipping houses and not declaring there capitol gains,people selling pre build condo assignments and not declaring there gains,home owners that are renting moldy basement apartments again sans tax,same with bnb type players. more taxes and goverment intervention is not the answer,when was the last time that goverment ran anything to the benefit of the tax payer. last and most importantly the tap of essentially free money created to respond to the financial crises of 2008 has long passed its best before date. the central bank must move interest rates back up to historical levels,instead of playing the game at each meeting why not just come out and say rates will increase at .25% per quarter until normalized rates are achieved say 7 to 8 %

#281 fancy_pants on 02.21.18 at 12:27 pm

“We lost” …
No Matt, you definitely won.

Unless of course you have a burning desire to put on rainbow colors and celebrate “peoplekind” in the center of the universe once a year, you definitely won.

#282 Calling all Matts on 02.21.18 at 12:28 pm

Is it technically possible to move the “Submit” button from the lower left to the upper right? We all can’t afford 12″ phones.

#283 Newcomer on 02.21.18 at 12:28 pm

#129 Asterix1 on 02.20.18 at 8:18 pm
“Move. Or shut up”.

2. “Shut up”. Never shut up! Keep blasting those who actually deserve to be blasted when your city has been ruined by terrible policies and monetary policy.
——-

This is a good point. This blog has been at pains to point out that the current housing situation is the result of poor policy choices. Why should people stop criticizing those policy choices now? I don’t think anything happened that would change the evaluation of past policy choices.

#284 Alistair McLaughlin on 02.21.18 at 12:33 pm

Here’s the problem, in Canadians’ own words:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/canadians-refuse-to-move-to-find-workand-its-hurting-theeconomy/article38027802/

“I don’t want to leave my social circle behind! Wah!”

#285 Alistair McLaughlin on 02.21.18 at 12:44 pm

For those of you who say Toronto will never correct, they said the same things back in the late 1980s, and for the same reasons cited today. Here’s a time capsule for you:

https://www.scribd.com/doc/314505251/Toronto-Housing-Bubble-1988#

Yah yah, I know. It’s different this time.

#286 Renter's Revenge! on 02.21.18 at 1:14 pm

Always blame someone else for your problems. It’s easier that way.

#287 Graeme on 02.21.18 at 1:15 pm

Raging at central bankers I would say is somewhat justified.

And pointless. – Garth

#288 Steven Rowlandson on 02.21.18 at 1:16 pm

It is not fear to seek their own shelter Garth. If it was mere fear a kick in the butt and an admonition to man up would be all that is needed. Job or no job the magnitude of rents and especially home prices is so high that one would become a criminal by spending all or more than ones income monthly on a place to live. Even a one bed room in some rooming houses is going for $500 to $800 a month in Barrie. It is not worth it! Not now ,not ever. Do you really think a 15 dollar an hour worker is going to hand it all over to a bank or land lord and then starve or go to the soup kitchen and at tax time and insurance time tell the government and insurance companies that even though they must be paid they won’t be paid because the bank or land lord comes first. It ain’t going to happen. Sonny Jim home buyer or renter goes to jail and loses his home, car and job and that is that. The privilege of living in Canada starts at one weeks pay per month for rent and three years pay for home ownership and hefty down payment. Where I am this means something like an income of $25 an hour to rent an apartment or $80 plus an hour to buy. Employers are not in business to pay their people enough to subsidize such greed. That is how it is in the real world.

#289 Ian on 02.21.18 at 1:19 pm

The GTA median price decline from 89-96 was 33%, so I think we blow well past 40% decline. I was surprised to hear you say that would be the outer limit!

#290 PastThePeak on 02.21.18 at 1:26 pm

#135 IHCTD9 on 02.20.18 at 8:35 pm
….
Big mortgage payments are financial death sentences. IMHO, you need to avoid this at all costs – even if it means throwing your education away and changing careers to move where you can be free from life long debt slavery.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Good post. Fully agree. We followed the same approach, getting careers in a smaller city. Only purchasing what we could afford on one salary (been mortgage free since 40). No pensions so we have to retire on what we save, but so far things are going well, hoping to semi-retire at 55.

Here is something I haven’t heard much on this blog, from those who look into the past (with 20:20 vision) and claim that it was obviously better to purchase a house in the past regardless of the price. That the “gain” from the house was better than a balanced portfolio of financial instruments.

Obviously, in hindsight that is true (if only we could invest in the past…), as it pertains to pure net worth, but it is only a paper gain until you sell it. So say you think (like many do), that RE was the better investment. For most all they could afford is the primary residence (if you can barely afford one house, chances are you can’t afford 2). They still have to live there, or somewhere.

So what is the exit plan? Sell the $1M house and buy a $700K condo, living off $300K with higher (condo fee) monthly expenses? Extract money as a HELOC or reverse mortgage (but then YOU are paying costs on your investment, rather than case with financial instruments which pay you)? The theory might have been “move to a lower cost location”, but all we hear on this blog tonight is about how no one wants to do that.

So what are all you RE paper millionaires going to do?

#291 Briana on 02.21.18 at 1:32 pm

I usually agree with Garth, but not on 40%. I’m with tccontrarian, most detached homes in GTA have already incurred a 20 -25% correction since early last year. We haven’t even hit the Spring market. There is likely another 20 to 40% to come. 40% at minimum…. and that could mainly be the Toronto urban area, but the burbs and surrounding areas of GTA will plummet, anywhere from 50 to 70%! Only cheap money driving the market the last 15 yrs, not fundamentals. Condos probably peaking now, get ready for a 50 to 70% loss especially with any further tightening on AirBnB regulations on top of higher rates. See condos while you still can. Foreigners will take their money elsewhere that they get bigger bang for money, and they risk more government intervention on market…

Stay tuned folks, we got the dip after the blip early last year and a slight recovery end of last year ahead of stress test…..now we’re about to head off the CLIFF. This was a classic bubble, the downturn of the cliff is just starting now and will take us well into next year…

#292 Ace Goodheart on 02.21.18 at 1:32 pm

Absolutely love Quebec. Particularly Montreal and QC, but the rural areas are also very nice. Best way to learn French is just go live in a small Quebec town. The locals literally talk to you in French on the street. It is not like Ontario where everyone is “standoffish”. Different culture there entirely.

Ontario’s PC party appears to have snatched defeat from the jaws of certain victory, and are currently squandering the best opportunity they’ve had in a very long time to get back into power here. They would hardly recognize the landscape they’d be taking over, it’s been so long.

But nope, instead of seizing the opportunity to topple a determined but very weak and not well liked Liberal leader, they instead have decided to fight with themselves to the bitter end.

This situation has changed my investment strategies as I was investing based on my understanding that the Liberals were finished in this province. It appears based on what is happening in the PC party, that I was entirely wrong, and that by the time the election comes about three months’ from now, there may not even be a functional PC party to participate in it.

What a disaster. And of course good ol’ never win comes back with his 23 year old sometimes GF to spice things up a bit. It’s like watching a very slow train wreck. Sometimes I can’t bear to look.

#293 No stock for you! on 02.21.18 at 2:09 pm

After seemingly endless equity issuances, Canadian resource companies have now jumped on the US Junk Bond Bandwagon.
The US invasion has been called off, they’d rather collect the rent.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/canadian-resource-players-meet-the-u-s-high-yield-debt-market

#294 Chico on 02.21.18 at 2:11 pm

#270 A J on 02.21.18 at 11:43 am

#263 Chico

I have total respect for your decision. That sounds so tough. More power to you both. At the end of the day, you have to make the decision that’s best for your family. Even if that means sacrifices. And it sounds like you made the right one.

And trust me, this is something that I’m still trying to figure out for myself. By writing here I’m trying to work through ideas, options and come to a solid conclusion. I’m in no way shape or form trying to come off like I’m whining about my situation. I’m literally working through my situation right now, in the present tense. So, I haven’t made a decision yet. I’ve given myself a 3 year window. And plan on setting a maximum date for living in the city at New Years 2021. I have a financial plan to move at that time, if it comes to it. So, this is very fluid for me. I think it is for everyone. Just because things aren’t working right now, doesn’t mean I have the ability to rent a U-Haul today and move to Regina. That’s not realistic in my opinion. And talking about where to steer your life is not complaining in my opinion, it’s talking out loud. It’s research. It’s discovery. And I personally am trying to figure out wtf to do now that a Toronto future doesn’t seem like it’s going to pan out.

——————————————–

It doesn’t sound like you’re whining, yet lots of people are. They are whining because they don’t want to pay the price of moving to someplace more affordable, more live able, etc., so they slag other parts of the country, they complain about the govn’t, they call Canada a “hellhole.”

I like what you’re saying about the plan you’ve got. We made the decision to move in July 2015, but had been watching the housing market closely for years prior, hoping the insanity would abate…but it just got worse.

Where a person or family moves should not be decided on too hastily. We did our research, knew what we wanted and most importantly “why.”

#295 RyYYZ on 02.21.18 at 2:29 pm

#126 Dominoes Lining Up on 02.20.18 at 8:17 pm
Toronto has reached a tipping point in many ways. Too many people there have nothing in their lives except costly real estate, and can barely afford to pay property taxes which are much lower than the 905.

Politicians cleverly pander to this sentiment, refusing to raise taxes to pay for necessities for a vibrant city. Here’s a prescient piece about how Toronto is slowly falling apart because politicians are too afraid to do the right things.
===================================

I’ve long thought that this seems to be one of the main problems of Toronto. Everybody (who lives in Toronto) loves to brag about how great it is to have transit and be in the middle of everything, and so on, but they don’t seem to be willing to pay for it.

I probably spend $5,000-$6,000 a year to provide myself with transport, since I don’t live or work where transit is really viable. I live on the outskirts of town, and wonder where my relatively high taxes ($2,400/yr on a place I paid $220K for five years ago) go – it doesn’t seem to be into any services I get any use out of, nor does it go into maintaining the local roads.

Is it too much to ask for Toronto residents to actually pay enough tax to provide themselves with the services that they want? Improved transit being a major one. Toronto’s subway system is pathetic for a city of its size – why weren’t they planning and started on building at least a couple more lines, years ago?

#296 Hurtin' Albertan on 02.21.18 at 2:30 pm

This seems relevant: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/kaslo-bc-contest-1.4543302

#297 Zapstrap on 02.21.18 at 2:34 pm

Sounds like Quebec will soon need a wall to keep the rest of us out. Who woulda thought?

#298 BillyBob on 02.21.18 at 2:37 pm

#226 Platu6 on 02.21.18 at 4:26 am
Wow, talk about capitulation.

I’ve been a reader of this blog shortly after Lehman back around 2009-2010 or so – and the tone on Canadian housing has been unequivocally negative and warning of impending drawdowns. Instead, housing in 416/604 has gone anywhere from 200-300% higher unlevered, which means 400-800% higher depending on your mortgage leverage.

No 60/40 or any mortal equity portfolio will come anywhere close to that return, especially when you take the crazy sharpe ratio / risk-adjusted returns into consideration.

What Garth (and a lot of us) have missed over the past decade is the power of the global central bank printing press / negative rates / QE etc which are are pushing income disparities wider globally, leading to hoarding of the same type of assets everywhere (housing, stocks, cash-flow yielding projects). Globalization and the liberal infatuation with free trade also means that global money is fungible and the money centers of London/NY/Tokyo/Hong Kong/Shanghai are free flooding the globe and bidding up global real estate. The ones who are priced out of North Asia now are simply migrating to Phillipines / Vietnam / Bangkok and their locals have the *exact* same complaints as my fellow Canadians. Governments have been slow / unable to act to create macro-prudential measures to protect the locals from having affordable lodging. This move to protectionism (whether it’s Trump/NDP/New Zealand) is just the beginning.

Furthermore, the strong market to market / realized gains from those who bought at *any* time in the past decade means they are so far ahead of the race that they can keep rolling it over to buy more and more expensive houses with enough “buffer” in the game that the non-asset holders can only look and wish doom upon them.

I’ve lived in probably 3-4 of the most expensive cities in the world over the past 15 years and the problem is the same everywhere. What I’ve learned since (and I wish some mentor taught me earlier) is that globalization and free trade (without local protectionism) means that capital is freely fungible anywhere and anytime, and real estate is no longer “local”. Price to income ratios are meaningless as you are no longer competing with just your friendly neighbours and comrades but with people of all walks across the globe.

With the proliferation of internet and information symmetry on public investments globally it just means that the “attractive” areas like HK/604/416/London/Manhattan/Tokyo/Bangkok/Sydney/Lisbon will be owned by a smaller and smaller % of the 5% or 1% class and the exponential component of their giant wealth effect means that they can buy way more units in a faster time than the rest of us can afford the 1st downpayment. That’s why all the locals (everywhere) complain and hope for a housing crash as that is the only way the gap is ever going to be closed. Unfortunately, with everyone’s skin now in the game, the government cannot afford such a thing and we can even see the most resolute of the housing bears throwing in the towel.

As such, my takeaway lesson on housing is (which I wish I learned much earlier) – always buy your first home, as soon as you can, but only as much as you can afford. Crashes are lottery tickets which are of pure luck and not everyone will have the best entry point. Otherwise unless you are a demi-god investor (in which case you should be opening a 2/20 hedge fund) , the growth in your wealth is probably going under-perform what you can get in a levered long position in housing in a core urban area, and you are going to end up less affordable the more you wait. If you wait for too long, you end up in the scenario that Garth described where you have to move away from the city you want to live in in the first place (along with jobs / friends etc), and have basically “lost” in this relative game of income/resource accumulation.

There is really no sugar-coating around this last part. If your objective is to live in a place you want to live and provide resources to your loved ones the way you want to provide, then you are (whether you like it or not) in a resource accumulation game and it’s becoming increasingly competitive and global as the years past. With the rest of Asia emerging quicker and quicker expect this competition to get worst over the next decade as we lift an unprecedented number of global citizens into middle class. Afterall, most of us are after the same living standards / locations and the money is produced way faster than any productive assets can hope to match.

Good luck to everyone

===================================

As a permanent expat I could not agree more. There’s no point in moaning about the cost of any commodity – including housing – the prices are set globally. No local government policy will make a difference.

You wanted cheap goods, you got them. And you pay for them with your housing costs. Both are outcomes of globalization.

And I would extend Garth’s logic of “if you don’t like it, leave” to beyond Canada’s borders. Except, unlike SCM, instead of just talking about it, actually do it.

#299 A J on 02.21.18 at 2:47 pm

#294 Chico

I agree, that Canada is in no way, shape or form a “hellhole”. When people blast Canada it’s shocking to me. Would you rather live in a country where they have to shove you into subway cars (a la Japan)? I’d rather have space and privacy in a small town than be close to entertainment in an overcrowded urban area. This country is beautiful. I hope one day to live out East. I’ve travelled to Halifax and loved it there. I just need to save some more, figure some things out for my Mother, and then, hopefully, I can get that U-Haul ready. But yeah, up and leaving overnight is not going to happen for me.

#300 NoName on 02.21.18 at 2:53 pm

pres play

(start here and if you like rewind ad watch from beginning)
https://youtu.be/T71ibcZAX3I?t=14m29s

#301 Smoking Man on 02.21.18 at 3:00 pm

#247 James on 02.21.18 at 9:21 am
#201 Smoking Man on 02.20.18 at 11:06 pm

13 years ago today when Hunter ate a built.
I had no idea who he was back then. Wasent schooled, never paid attention or cared who the cultural icons of our times were.
To busy building businesses and making loot. But thanks to this pathetic idea exchange experiment a few dogs pointed him out.
I read fear and loathing as the first fiction book I ever read. I was hooked. Read everything else. Even visited the bar he would hang out in on my road trip to California.
I was so inspired I wrote one myself. Thank God I’m not famous because of it. That’s my high water mark.
Drugs dident kill him. He set the bar so high and made the mistake of becoming famous. He could no longer deliver , or out do himself so he took the easy way out.
Every Milenial should read his books.
He was the supreme Dr of Herdonomics.
Dedicate this post to Hunter.
……………………………………………………………………
Jesus Smoking Man you don’t know jack. Did you not read anything other than Casino guides in your spare time? To suggest that you are the resurrected version Hunter S Thompson is quite an affront to his heterogeneous and creative journalism methodology. Hunter S Thompson was a writer that many of us studied in University including works of such literary journalists as Tom Wolfe, Joan Didion, Nora Ephron, John McPhee, Lillian Ross, and Norman Mailer, to name but a few.

Hunter S Thompson did not eat a “built” he blew his chrome plated cranium off with a 45 cal pistol while he was on the phone with his spouse. He had a severe issue with drugs especially pain meds and was suffering from intense physical pain and discomfort as a result of a back injury, broken leg, hip replacement surgery, and a lung infection. His widow, Anita, said “that while the injuries were significant, they did not justify his suicide”. “His pain was unbearable at times, but was by no means terminal,” according to his widow Anita. The conclusion was that his mind altering pharmaceuticals had affected his logic. There were forewarning of his impending suicide in his last notes four days before his death. “No More Games. No More Bombs. No More Walking. No More Fun. No More Swimming. 67. That is 17 years past 50. 17 more than I needed or wanted. Boring. I am always bitchy. No Fun – for anybody. 67. You are getting Greedy. Act your old age. Relax – This won’t hurt.”
…..

I’m a better writer with zero college. My shit flows fast. I would link my 5 star book reviews but then this comment would get deleted and you would never know I got one out there. By the way, I sure know Jack , he can be found in many 0f my delete posts.

Only Garth knows. I don’t I’m usually typing on my back or face down. When it’s late and you see deleted.

#302 World Traveller on 02.21.18 at 3:02 pm

We moved to a smaller city as well, still work in TO with some telecommuting and share a place in Toronto when I need to be there. I’m liking the $800/month mortgage payment, hopefully with some acceleration will be paid off soon.

#303 Double Trouble on 02.21.18 at 3:18 pm

President Trump will be watching tonight’s hockey game with a keen interest (12am AST). He is reportedly considering replacing UN Ambassador Nikki Haley with the Lamoureax twins. Nobody tells those girls to shut up.

#304 LivinLarge on 02.21.18 at 3:19 pm

“Or if it is because or greed and government stupidity…fight”…it always is, always was and always will be because of greed and government stupidity.

Except in extremely rare situations, those that seek to be career politicians aren’t the same ones who are truly capable of governing countries. It’s the “Peter Principle” at its finest.

Democracy always results in the least capable getting the greatest power. Socialism is no better just different as long as reelection is the goal. Monarchies have their own set of issues too. With an enlightened monarch, the trains may run on time but their offspring are just a crap shoot.

The same in business. It’s extraordinarily rare that a successful founder has children with comparable drive and creativity.

Humans are humans and human nature never really changes over time. Just the seats at the table change.

This time around is no different because the people at the helm are no different.

#305 Q2 Class 2-B-C-2 Duplex Drive on 02.21.18 at 3:21 pm

Millennials will vote T2 in the next election. Life is just so HARD, and Justin is SO cute! Besides, he cares!

#306 Reddy on 02.21.18 at 3:24 pm

Rip Billy Graham.

#307 PastThePeak on 02.21.18 at 3:38 pm

#292 Ace Goodheart on 02.21.18 at 1:32 pm

This situation has changed my investment strategies as I was investing based on my understanding that the Liberals were finished in this province…
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

We don’t know what the final (new) PC platform will be, but the previous one under Brown was basically “Liberal without Wynne”. The public comments from the PC leadership contenders doesn’t imply significant difference. While there is no doubt a benefit to kicking out a party in power far to long, there was nothing in the PC platform to indicate they had a plan to tackle the issues.

This is why I have said that it doesn’t matter (much) who wins. Ontario’s woes will continue. Debt growth has never stopped, despite a so-called balanced operational budget, and is set to accelerate again. Interest rate increases, a likely credit downgrade + next recession will have the Ontario debt on an unavoidable course with $400B (Feds at ~$650B now).

Electricity system is a nightmare, with a likely doubling from today’s rates baked in already. Could go higher.

Why are PCs not challenging it? Because they would not get elected. Ontario voters are oblivious.

Your investment strategy should reflect that, no matter who wins, I would say.

#308 Dan on 02.21.18 at 3:40 pm

I think it is possible to replace entire population of the place with people who have more money. This is not a country. This is a peace of land which belongs to Queen of England. And she is a head of the state and she even do not live here. So rules are different here, money laundering is legal….

#309 Al on 02.21.18 at 3:42 pm

Good post Billy Bob. Another takeaway is that one needs to be adaptive. For example, cheap goods are also available where there is relatively cheap housing, thus you can get to have your cake and eat it too in this regard, thanks to technology and globalization. Also thanks to this, you can also earn better income in locations where there are few job opportunities. Also, “housing” hasn’t gone up nearly as much as house prices, rents are quite low in many places relative to rent. Conversely, if your already a real estate owner, you can take advantage of the new way to rent, aka Airbnb/vrbo style, this will help you actually make some money on your overpriced real estate YMMV.

#310 unbalanced on 02.21.18 at 3:45 pm

Government fix housing prices!
Government created 40 year mortgages!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#311 SimplyPut7 on 02.21.18 at 3:46 pm

#297 Zapstrap on 02.21.18 at 2:34 pm

Many people don’t know how to speak or write fluently in French, the language barrier makes moving to Quebec a hard sell for many people living outside of the province.

I think if Ontario made it easier (and cheaper) to learn French, more people would move to Quebec.

#312 KLNR on 02.21.18 at 3:47 pm

@#295 RyYYZ on 02.21.18 at 2:29 pm

your taxes are what they are due to population – lack there of. low prop taxes in TO are a myth.
as for the lack of subway lines, thats just years of short term thinking by the municipal gov. I’d gladly pay more tax for better service.

#313 PastThePeak on 02.21.18 at 3:50 pm

Gotta say that I can’t stand those on this blog that keep repeating that “Canada sucks”, is a sh*thole, a hellhole, etc. It isn’t paradise, but overall it is a mostly peaceful, benevolent, and attractive place to live and raise a family. Great outdoors, relatively low crime, pretty solid on freedoms, and high (though starting to fall) standards of living.

That said, the financial policies and mgmt of the country (federal, provincial and the BoC) have been going downhill for some time, and now half the population seems to have lost their mind as it pertains to debt and personal finance. Canada came out of the global credit crisis the best of the G20, but sadly we have squandered that standing, and didn’t learn the lessons that the Americans and others painfully endured. That is the worst part – it was clearly laid out a little over 10 years ago.

AND – for those who live in the grid locked GTA, in their jungle of concrete and steel (without much distinguishing architecture) and feel like disparaging the rest of the country as sh*t…then I say enjoy your fate.

#314 Blacksheep on 02.21.18 at 3:54 pm

Platu6 # 226,

“Wow, talk about capitulation.”
——————————————————–
Dare I say….In my humble opinion : )

This is the most important and relevant comment, EVER MADE on Garth’s 10 year old blog.

Every one reading this, that is even considering buying a home ANYWHERE, should copy paste and read this, over and over until the Greater Fool group think of the past, fades away.

I started saying this four years ago and it rings truer today than ever:

“Don’t fight the system” You will loose as I did, till I caught on.

Garth, I thank you for giving us many years of economic enlightenment.

I am forever in your debt.

I somehow have a strange feeling, that we seem to have come full circle, to where this all began….

#315 Dups on 02.21.18 at 4:00 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/financial-post-magazine/the-state-of-luxury-housing-if-1-million-buys-you-a-diyers-special-then-what-is-the-new-threshold-for-luxe-living

#316 Musty Basement Dweller on 02.21.18 at 4:15 pm

#169 Matt from SoLongToronto on 02.20.18 at 9:48 pm
Here’s Matt,

“…sitting comfortably sipping on a Whiskey I bought for $2 off at the LCBO”

I love that you enjoy $2 off on your whiskey and tiredly making microwave popcorn as a real treat. Lifes simple pleasures eh, i agree.

#317 James on 02.21.18 at 4:16 pm

#301 Smoking Man on 02.21.18 at 3:00 pm

#247 James on 02.21.18 at 9:21 am
#201 Smoking Man on 02.20.18 at 11:06 pm
13 years ago today when Hunter ate a built.
I had no idea who he was back then. Wasent schooled, never paid attention or cared who the cultural icons of our times were.
To busy building businesses and making loot. But thanks to this pathetic idea exchange experiment a few dogs pointed him out.
I read fear and loathing as the first fiction book I ever read. I was hooked. Read everything else. Even visited the bar he would hang out in on my road trip to California.
I was so inspired I wrote one myself. Thank God I’m not famous because of it. That’s my high water mark.
Drugs dident kill him. He set the bar so high and made the mistake of becoming famous. He could no longer deliver , or out do himself so he took the easy way out.
Every Milenial should read his books.
He was the supreme Dr of Herdonomics.
Dedicate this post to Hunter.
……………………………………………………………………
Jesus Smoking Man you don’t know jack. Did you not read anything other than Casino guides in your spare time? To suggest that you are the resurrected version Hunter S Thompson is quite an affront to his heterogeneous and creative journalism methodology. Hunter S Thompson was a writer that many of us studied in University including works of such literary journalists as Tom Wolfe, Joan Didion, Nora Ephron, John McPhee, Lillian Ross, and Norman Mailer, to name but a few.

Hunter S Thompson did not eat a “built” he blew his chrome plated cranium off with a 45 cal pistol while he was on the phone with his spouse. He had a severe issue with drugs especially pain meds and was suffering from intense physical pain and discomfort as a result of a back injury, broken leg, hip replacement surgery, and a lung infection. His widow, Anita, said “that while the injuries were significant, they did not justify his suicide”. “His pain was unbearable at times, but was by no means terminal,” according to his widow Anita. The conclusion was that his mind altering pharmaceuticals had affected his logic. There were forewarning of his impending suicide in his last notes four days before his death. “No More Games. No More Bombs. No More Walking. No More Fun. No More Swimming. 67. That is 17 years past 50. 17 more than I needed or wanted. Boring. I am always bitchy. No Fun – for anybody. 67. You are getting Greedy. Act your old age. Relax – This won’t hurt.”
…..

I’m a better writer with zero college. My shit flows fast. I would link my 5 star book reviews but then this comment would get deleted and you would never know I got one out there. By the way, I sure know Jack , he can be found in many 0f my delete posts.

Only Garth knows. I don’t I’m usually typing on my back or face down. When it’s late and you see deleted.
…………………………………………………………………..
Perhaps your deleted posts could be a New York Best Seller? You do know shit flows down hill?

#318 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.21.18 at 4:30 pm

@#272Heloguy
“If you are being tailgated in PEI, the tailgaters are not the problem, you are.”
+++++
Well, since I have driven for over 35 years in Vancouver accident free( no small feat in this ICBC “paradise” of skyrocketing car insurance.).
I’d say my driving in a backwater , farming fishing Province like PEI isn’t the issue.

Driven much in PEI?
Thought not.
Tailgating is an Island “right of passage”.
Doesn’t matter if you’re driving the speed limit or 30k over the limit.
90 miles an hour right up to your bumper…
Then they will sit on your ass for miles. Never passing. I’ve tried slowing down to force them to pass….nada. They sit there so close you cant see headlights in your rearview.

I’ve had many , out of province friends visit the Island when I’ve been there and ALL of them have commented about Island drivers/tailgaters.
Don’t belive me?
Land your chopper sometime in Chucktown and go for a spin.

#319 Who Knew on 02.21.18 at 6:02 pm

I don’t expect a brad based correction in YVR. But I do expect high end luxury class homes to fall. How much is anyone’s guess, but the days of coming to YVR not paying your fair share are over. If I was a builder sitting on a $2.5 million dollar new build, I would be very worried.

#320 The Great Gazoo on 02.21.18 at 6:18 pm

So Patrick Brown who wants to lead the PC Party of Ontario to be the Premier, got help from his family to buy a $2.3 million home with a $375k deposit and took out a $1.72 million mortgage. What kind of example does that demonstrate? What kind of policies would he support with that mindset? Frightening.

From yesterday’s G&M:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/

Later that month, property records show he purchased a waterfront house on Lake Simcoe’s Shanty Bay for $2.3-million. He took out a mortgage of $1.72-million from Toronto-Dominion Bank, according to public mortgage documents.

When asked about that, Mr. Brown, who earned $180,886 a year as leader of the Official Opposition, responded in the e-mail: “Like many people in Ontario, I received help from my family purchasing my home.”

#321 Ace Goodheart on 02.22.18 at 10:33 am

Re #295 ryYYZ

Yes the endless debate on Toronto property tax payers and whether or not they should pay for more commuter infrastructure.

For those of us who live in Toronto and see our property tax increased every so often so that another commuter subway can be built out to the suburbs somewhere, that will be used twice per day by people who don’t live here, and run empty at our expense the rest of the time, this process is maddening.

We are our taxes being used to support construction and maintenance of commuter roads that we never use.

We deal with commuter traffic every day, funneled into our city at our expense. These people drive fast, are not very friendly and are a risk to us as we walk and cycle in our city. Our roads are made into parking lots. They ignore speed limits and traffic laws. They are always in a hurry. Perpetually late and very angry about it. They blame us and ask us to pay to build more roads for them. More commuter subways out to areas where they live.

Meanwhile the actual inhabitants of Toronto, while paying through the nose for commuter transit and road services that we never use, make do with a surface rail transit system dating to the late 1800s, which is constantly blocked and delayed by the same commuter traffic we pay to bring into the city.

So my take on the situation is as follows: if commuters want Torontonians to pay for their own transit, then fine. But no more payment from us, for subways out into the suburbs and commuter highways. We build subways only in the city core. We toll all commuter roads and use the proceeds to pay for upkeep. And we charge a congestion tax for every non Toronto based car or truck brought into the City.

That is fine with me.

#322 Doug in London on 02.22.18 at 1:25 pm

@PastThePeak, post #313;
That’s consistent with my beliefs about this country. It’s still one of the better places to live in the world and, I also find it depressing when those on this blog that keep repeating that “Canada sucks”, is a sh*thole, a hellhole, etc.

#323 Doug in London on 02.22.18 at 1:34 pm

Matt, on the other hand, is a genius. Quebec City. Halifax. Kingston. Montreal. London. Edmonton. Nanaimo. Regina. Charlottetown.
————————————————————
Good post Garth, I quite agree. Now in London, I tell you it beats the hell out of overpriced and congested Toronto area. You mentioned Winnipeg earlier this week. The same could be said for other places like Saskatoon, Regina, Moncton, and other places. Another often overlooked gem is many places in Northern Ontario. I enjoyed many things during my stay in Timmins, as well as being able to accumulate wealth due to the lower overall cost of living there.

If you look at the south horizon during those summer sights you’ll see the constellation Sagittarius, which looks like a teapot. Near there is the centre of our Milky Way Galaxy. I don’t have any idea where the centre of the universe is, but know for sure it ISN’T Toronto!

#324 Ace Goodheart on 02.22.18 at 2:55 pm

RE: #322 Doug in London on 02.22.18 at 1:25 pm

” @PastThePeak, post #313;
That’s consistent with my beliefs about this country. It’s still one of the better places to live in the world and, I also find it depressing when those on this blog that keep repeating that “Canada sucks”, is a sh*thole, a hellhole, etc.”

Canada is great if you have some money. A work camp if you don’t.

Our banking industry is increasingly being operated by people who are not the sharpest knives in the drawer. If you have a bit of cash invested, like a few mil in the markets, you need to remember that some 20 year old part time Burger King worker is staffing the phones at the bank’s call in centre, and this person has the ability to give your account password to anyone they find trustworthy, who calls up and pretends to be you. That is the security shield you are dealing with. And no said 20 year old does not work or live in Canada (I often ask where they are located, I got a few to tell me, most won’t, I can sometimes guess by the accent).

If you can get past the ridiculous security flaws in the “layer” of protection that Canadian banks offer to their online customers, then we do have a pretty stable banking system. I keep asking my bank to do an iris scan or a fingerprint verification system for me. I have managed to get them to voice recognize me when I call, after some pretty stupid situations developed as to whom they were giving access to my accounts. Still a lot to do in this area unfortunately.

Canada is also too cold.

You don’t realize this when you’re young. We’re all taught to be tough little Canadians capable of surviving hours spent in -20 degree outside weather. We pride ourselves on our cold weather skills.

Get past 50 and things change. Cold weather is a major hassle. You’re sick all the time. Your bones ache. Your muscles don’t work right in the cold. Dry air wrecks your skin. You have trouble sleeping. The constant supply of artificially warmed air from your furnace makes you cough at night. You pray for spring, moisture and green plants.

There is a reason why the natives were migratory. No human being should have to live through a Canadian winter. Yes young people are tough and good for them. The rest of us head south like our ancestors used to.

#325 Doug in London on 02.22.18 at 10:59 pm

@Ace Goodheart, post #324:
Canada is too cold you say? There are other cold places like the Nordic Countries, Russia, and Alaska, USA and in these colder places you learn to live with it. As the saying goes, there’s no such thing as bad weather, just bad clothing. I don’t know about you, but in all the places I’ve lived in and visited in Canada had houses with central heating systems.

Get past 50 and things change you say? When I was a kid I hated the cold but by the time I was a teenager it bothered me less because I learned to dress for it and simple geometry, namely lower ratio of surface area to volume as I got bigger. I’m now 57 years old, yes 57 years, that’s not a typo error and the cold doesn’t bother me any more than it did 10, 20 or 30 years ago. If anything it probably bothers me less. I figure that as my muscles get older they are less efficient at converting food energy to useful energy and thus generate more waste heat for the same level of activity than when I was younger. My bones don’t ache. I don’t have any trouble sleeping, nor does the artificially warmed air bother me. Why should it? Heat, regardless of its source, is the exact same random motion of atoms and molecules bouncing around.