The misguided

In little more than a week will come the first indication of how stressed we are about the stress test. In Toronto, for example, an average of 14 properties have changed hands daily during January. That compares with 63 a day last year – a 77% decline. Ouch!

Similarly, the time it takes to flog a property has exploded – from just 8 days last January to 32 this year (a four-fold increase, and twice the number for December). Meanwhile average prices are down about 4%, despite a weirdly busy condo market.

So, something has obviously happened. Unknown for another four or five months will be whether or not the market’s just pausing for breath, or has entered a long-term corrective phase. As reported here yesterday, new-home sales crumbled by 82% and are running 76% below the 10-year average. No wonder homebuilders are gingerly dropping prices. The frenzy’s gone.

The stress test is probably why. As veteran mortgage broker Rob McLister said a few months ago, this is the most consequential, earth-shaking event since the first fish crawled out of the Nile (or similar). It changes everything. Overnight it all but doubled the effective mortgage rate, and knocked 15% or 20% of all potential buyers to the sidelines. A newbie who could afford a $450,000 condo last autumn now qualifies for one worth $370,000. So it’ll only be a matter of time before prices fall another 17%.

As forecast here, the Bank of Canada benchmark five-year mortgage rates has just increased to 5.14% (see here). All buyers must qualify to borrow at that rate or the one their bank’s offering, plus 2%, whichever is greater. The cheapest bank five year rate is currently 3.39%, which puts the stress test bar at 5.39%. This compares with 2% fixed-rate loans being offered last January.

So now you can see, vividly, why sales have plunged.

Why did the evil bank regulator think we needed a stress test? Because of the B of Mom. So many moisters were using parental money for 20% downpayments in order to avoid the CMHC test for high-ratio borrowers that Ottawa acted. Bank portfolios were filling up with uninsured mortgages made to people who should never have been approved. That’s risk. The feds worried an economic or market reversal would lead to big bank losses. So here we are.

While it’s fashionable to blame rich foreigners for nutso house prices, speculation and familial stupidity are likely bigger culprits. The number of households holding multiple properties has exploded. Home equity loans to buy ‘investment’ condos have been rampant. HELOCs amount to more than $211 billion with six in ten not being repaid or having interest-only payments. And loans/gifts to adult children appear to be out of control.

The Financial Planning Council says 37% of all Canadian parents have given (or plan to give) money to their spawn to buy a first home. Mortgage Professionals Canada says the flow of B of Mom downpayments has doubled in the last 17 years and some agents in Vancouver claim more than 80% of first-time buyers have a parental assist.

So what?

Well, by borrowing money from their inflated real estate (through a HELOC) to give to their kids so they can invest in more real estate, families become dangerously over-exposed to a single asset class. Worse, it’s a Ponzi scheme – pumping money from the market into the market, keeping valuations inflated. Ironically, all that cash prevents a normal cool-off when prices get out of control. So parents make matter worse, while ensuring their kids swallow historic levels of debt.

While thrusting their children into a borrowing morass, parents are also raiding retirement assets or creating new debt through secured lines of credit. The risk is obvious. If real estate tanks, crashes, corrects or even just swoons for a few years, Junior is pooched with a total loss of equity (and would have been better off renting), while mom & dad’s nestegg shrinks and their own equity is sucked off by a line of credit whose rate keeps increasing. Lose, lose.

But there’s more.

If real estate stays on this track and Junior defaults, the whole family is affected. If your adult child is an insensitive lout and causes a divorce, big trouble. All could be lost. In order to protect the parents, it would be best to structure the transfer as a loan registered against the deed, to be repaid when the house is sold – but that runs afoul of the B20 rules. Loans increase the debt-to-income ratio and may disqualify kiddo in the first place.

Besides CMHC insists any downpayment cannot be a repayable loan. In fact, Mom may have to sign a letter confirming exactly that – so gifting to a married child means taking a big chance that a fresh marriage will stick. More risk.

Meanwhile the stress test itself is upping the pressure on parents to loan money, since everyone qualifies to borrow less.

They could turn off the spigot and let prices fall. But that would involve logic.

228 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 01.25.18 at 5:01 pm

Pink Snow falling in West Vancouver.

Featured these guys once before ,for the initial posting ,they just had it off the market for a little while and just took 100k off to entice a bid and put it back up all shiny and new trying to catch the pre – Spring wave.

I just showed a couple of losses the other day around the 400//500k mark and these guys are looking likely to be in that range of they get lucky ,but more likely in the 750k range after expenses.

One of the problems these guys face besides a deteriorating market is anyone who has that kind of coin can play a bunch of these sellers against one another as I have a multitude of cases in that price bracket in that area of the city.

Also most people would probably prefer to spend that type of money on something in Shaughnessy or Point Grey but these guys could yet pull a Houdini but it’s looking unlikely…

M43BC

1356 Chartwell Dr,West Vancouver.

Paid 5.69 May 2017

Were Asking 5.48

Now asking 5.38

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/1356-chartwell-drive

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAyOUQwSw==

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#2 paul on 01.25.18 at 5:05 pm

The ‘gifts’ are registered a couple of weeks after closing.
Some use it to ensure is the kids break up, the lending parents have a shot of getting the money back.

#3 Katie on 01.25.18 at 5:06 pm

Furst!

#4 paul on 01.25.18 at 5:08 pm

#1 For those about to flop…

Wow check the taxes in thr G.T.A. they would be 70k

#5 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 01.25.18 at 5:12 pm

it seems to be a different ballgame out here
sure aint 2014 anymore
but at least daylight is gettin longer .. spring is on its way

#6 James on 01.25.18 at 5:13 pm

Sadly, here in BC my latest case Raven v. Raven & Rose sets, and reconfirms the maxim that money given to adult children is presumed to be a repayable loan and not a gift. And, it further demonstrates that the letters banks make moisters sign saying money from the B of Mom is a gift don’t hold water.

#7 Willy Wonka on 01.25.18 at 5:15 pm

My fear is the Ontario provincial government will mimic BC and introduce a first-time buyer’s interest-free loan to prevent any correction from taking hold. The government will do everything possible to keep this party alive. Hopefully they let the market work itself out without any intervention.

#8 Oliver on 01.25.18 at 5:16 pm

Garth,

Your daily grind on this blog is so admirable! I don’t think I’ve tended go anything as attentively as you do this blog.

In the comment section I see more ranting than kindness, so just wanted to send some well-deserved kudos your way!

Thanks, Garth!

#9 bb on 01.25.18 at 5:16 pm

Its common for parents (Asian culture) to gift a condo unit/house to their adult child (Most have only 1 or 2 children anyway) when they get married or finish uni/college. Expect more parents to raid their bank accounts to gift their offspring.

#10 David Bergin on 01.25.18 at 5:18 pm

Would what allister St Clair will be saying tonight.

#11 Franco Mazzuca on 01.25.18 at 5:18 pm

See link on article about the cost of real estate in Canada, US and Australia

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-25/mauldin-flying-blind-20x-brink-another-housing-driven-global-crisis

#12 Rents Skyrocketing on 01.25.18 at 5:25 pm

Rents will soon swell with the new B20 rules as those who do not have credit to buy will place pressure on existing rental stock – because everyone needs shelter. There will be a lot more competition in hot markets with already near zero vacancy rates.

Sure, there will be some more rental houses on the market from speculators cracking under the pressure, but local rental demand will absorb them as there will be more ‘rejected B20 potential buyers’ than houses on the market from speculators. This adds another pressure on top of the near 0% vacancy rates in major cities.

The irony is that due to more competition for scarce rentals, renters will soon be paying more than the mortgage/insurance of owners who bought their houses under the old rules and cheaper mortgages.

And owners will sell when they want, and renters will continue to be in a precarious posiiton waiting for the next eviction – in the bigger markets like Van, TO and Victoria.

For those sideline renters in major bubble markets cheering on B20, you might have just caused rent increases and even less security of tenure. Good job.

So not only have the smart sideline renters missed out on lifetime capital gains, but their decision will eventually result in them paying even more as the years go on. And all of this will take place over many many years as prices melt – they are sticky on the way down remember?.

So I hope those renters who invested wisely for years can absorb the rent increases; that they can deal with the constant fear of being evicted as some landlords will cash in on past captial appeciation; that their partners and kids can understand the need to be constantly moving; and have the patience for years as price melts take years and years, especially after a decade bull run.

This market unfolding could take more than a decade – do you have the wherewithal to ride it out and wait to purchase at the bottom to justify all those years renting? Even those families in secure places now will face pressure to move once price decreases become too much to bear for their current landlords….

History proves you wrong. Where prices decline, rents decline. But nice pumping… – Garth

#13 Gulf Breeze on 01.25.18 at 5:49 pm

Fwiw, As of next week I am completely debt free and very relieved. Paid off a small line of credit at one bank and will pay the other small one off at credit union next week.

I own my place outright. I am going into major hunkering down mode because I think 2019 is going to be fugly.

The wonder of it all is why the Canadian dollar is strengthening right now. Most people are unaware that our national debt is way way below U.S and small fraction of China’s, so I don’t think that is it.

Our oil picture is nuts. We are reliant on a hostile Southern neighbour to purchase all of our oil exports. Like go ahead, build that pipeline, then the U.S will be in complete total control!

Nafta looks scary. The people behind Trump have a mandate to tear it up.

Housing in Van and To look a bit more precarious now too, but more than interest rates, (which won’t likely rise here. Nor will the stress test be the huge issue we think. Sorry Garth) unemployment is going to be the driver of a recession.

One sure fire fix would be Trudeau going back to China and arranging an extradition treaty with their leader. It was all very hush hush, last visit but “human rights issues,” was code for –our country refuses to send people back to their country of origin to be slaughtered.

In a way I am glad Trudeau stuck to his guns. On the other hand, something surely could be arranged where they get their crooks back if they promise to spare their lives. We need this trade deal.

#14 namename on 01.25.18 at 5:49 pm

going to put my feet up, sit back, pop some popcorn and watch this mess unravel, nothing like a good old fashioned trainwreck!

#15 Andrewski on 01.25.18 at 5:51 pm

You’d think that the parent’s of moisters would maybe hold their house horny offspring back from jumping in to a frothy market, but no, too many (37%!!!!!) have drank the koolaid & here we are.

#16 Mark on 01.25.18 at 5:55 pm

Kind of sad, already, what I’ve seen unfold in the west amongst my friends. So many divorces because the credit cards have been maxxed out and home equity lines could no longer be expanded. And even the single people I talk to about the topic, they tell me that practically the first inquiry they make of their dates is with respect to how much debt they have.

All incredibly unhealthy for the economy and society going forward. Birthrates in the US plunged after the housing collapse, and we’re likely to see such replicated in Canada as the consumer economy turns down. The housing bubble was a great distributor and equalizer of wealth, due to the ubiquitous nature of home ownership amongst Canadians, but the future is that of severe wealth concentration amongst a few more closely approximating what has been seen in places like the USA over the past few decades of excess.

#17 Andrewski on 01.25.18 at 5:55 pm

Re #3, Katie: Good to hear a woman come first.

#18 Ugly dog on 01.25.18 at 5:55 pm

What an ugly Dog!

#19 Sitting on the toilet thinking on 01.25.18 at 5:56 pm

#2 rents skyrocketing

What a load of bullshit. Do you really think there’s a 1% vacancy rate maybe on mls but if you look at the secondary market for e.g. Kijiji, Craig list and viewit.ca you’ll see there’s a lot more rentals than the 1% that realtors claim. Stop trolling!!!

#20 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 01.25.18 at 5:56 pm

USD takes a nosedive. (DXY) and is now at 89.18. Huge selling pressure.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DUacnLmXkAE490j.jpg:large

You can play this in two ways:

If you loaded up on DXY (or have 20% of your portfolio in USD), the chart says… SELL IT off for CAD. (or hold your nose)

If you loaded up on CAD and want to play the long USD game, load up on DXY.

Amazingly most many fundamental analysis got the USD call wrong (bullish).

#21 Forex Instagram Star on 01.25.18 at 5:58 pm

Did you hear Poloz say that he isn’t sure that he will hike interest rates ever again for the rest of 2018 and 2019? Methinks that Poloz is starting a currency war with the USA….Do we see a 45c to 55c Loonie by 2019 or not? I hate it when Poloz manipulates the value of our currency!

#22 namename on 01.25.18 at 6:03 pm

#11 whatever you need to tell yourself to get some sleep at night pal! lol I am going to add some super nibs to my popcorn…this is going to be next level!

#23 Dennis The Agent on 01.25.18 at 6:15 pm

CMHC insists that any down payment cannot be a repayable loan.

Or else what? How do they enforce this? By using their big boy/girl voices?

#24 Wishful thinking on 01.25.18 at 6:18 pm

# 11 you must be a landlord…

#25 Mark on 01.25.18 at 6:30 pm

“Or else what? How do they enforce this? By using their big boy/girl voices?”

Enforced after the fact pretty much. If you default on a CMHC-insured subprime loan, and the folks list themselves as an unsecured creditor relating to a housing debt, the CMHC certainly could investigate further and pursue an objection.

The bankruptcy courts tend to come down pretty hard on debtors who obtain credit through fraudulent representations.

#26 Smartalox on 01.25.18 at 6:32 pm

#11:

Rents rising? Not from what I see. I rent, so I’m always tuned into CL to look for alternatives, despite being in the same place for the past eight years.

In the last 60 days, the number of listings for rentals, and the quality of rentals offered at my price point (ridiculously low, given what I pay currently) has never been higher.

It would seem that in Vancouver the ’empty homes tax’ is starting to have an effect.

I don’t know where you are, but greater Vancouver is showing a lot of competition,

#27 Honesty here on 01.25.18 at 6:37 pm

The condo market is hot for one simple reason: foreign investors know that a condo unit is easier to manage that a single detached home.

The current trend in declining sales in single detached homes is a more accurate reflection of the domestic buying market in the GTA, but the condo reflects heavy foreign interests.

This is the simple truth. Pointing this out is not racism, so please don’t block this posting.

#28 Burnaby Boy on 01.25.18 at 6:37 pm

The demolition of the affordable low rises to the south and east of Burnaby’s Metrotown shopping Mall continues unabated and has now spread to the west side. I noticed core samples being taken at two neighboring low rises on Wilson St this week and just before Christmas on the four streets surrounding the old GVRD office on Kingsway. The old Sears site at Metrotown shopping Mall is now designated for conversion to five high rises.

#29 Newcomer on 01.25.18 at 6:42 pm

#8 bb on 01.25.18 at 5:16 pm
Its common for parents (Asian culture)…
——–

Dude, please. There is no such thing as “Asian culture.” Do you have any idea how big Asia is?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asia

#30 Yorkville Renter on 01.25.18 at 6:43 pm

Hey #19 – you think Poloz would be allowed to answer a question like that? The answer is “of course not “. He has to be extremely careful with words because what he says moves markets.

#31 Chenney McLirte on 01.25.18 at 6:46 pm

Poloz says he think rates won’t raise for the rest of the year. What do you think Garth?

#32 YVR Renter on 01.25.18 at 6:49 pm

Thanks for these recent eye-opening RE articles, Garth. My husband now reads you faithfully too, and you’ve saved us from making the terrible choice to buy anything in YVR as we near retirement age. You also have us checking how well balanced our portfolios are based on your brilliant advice (we are with a very calm, insightful well-balanced private advisor group paying 1% fees).

Back in 1984 we were those young boomer moisters who then did the math and found it cheaper to buy than rent. There was a severe rental shortage in Ontario then too. Our first home was $76,200 and we had to increase our bid up to that as we were in a bidding war with 5 others. Our newlywed salaries totalled about $49000 and we didn’t have the then required 25% down. An opportunistic realtor held our hands, spun the math despite the CMHC penalty and we jumped. We got lucky and unsolicited(we’d already signed) our captain of industry father jumped in with an $8000 LOAN to get us to our 25% down. We were very fortunate, very lucky to have that help, but we paid him back EVERY single month even if it meant the fridge was empty and we could barely afford diapers for the wonderful babies that followed. We learned to be handy, to fix things, and drove a 14 yr old car with a hole in the floor like Fred Flintstone’s. Bleeding knuckles and sore backs from building our own patio, doing own renovations, stripping g 6 layers of paint & wallpaper. Can kids do that today? We help our kids but they work for all they can, pay off their student loans. We gotta get back to those values… I get the kids whining their house in WHITBY is worth $90K less…get used to it. It’s only begun.

#33 Leichendiener on 01.25.18 at 6:52 pm

Christine Elliott is my choice but creepy Tim is still in the picture. But I digress…

Yes folks, the RE market is going down, listen to Gartho.

#34 wallflower on 01.25.18 at 6:53 pm

#15 Mark on 01.25.18 at 5:55 pm
I don’t think the birthrate plummeting will be as much caused by housing situation and debt as it will be by young men deciding to steer clear of women: the surest way to avoid the accusations. Welcome to the future of double whammy no kids. Can immigration manage this? From what I understand, a high percentage of “new Canadians” return “home.”

#35 For those about to flop on 01.25.18 at 6:55 pm

Recent Sale Report/ Realtor Assistance Needed.

This one could also be categorized as Pink Snow falling in Burnaby.

Been following this one for a while and it finally sold 14 days ago.

Well ,we are one step closer to the end of the Sunland saga.

As you can see by the price history,been playing around with the price since being on the market since October 2016.

The last reduction in November 2017 just four days after re-listing,a 250k drop to try and get some love.

They are on the hook for 1.3 and would have needed to get the best part of 1.45 to be clean and clear after expenses.

Elton John is sure to serenade these guys on his farewell tour.

Don’t let the Sunland go down on me…

M43BC

4582 Sunland Place, Burnaby paid 1.30 ass 1.35

Oct 15:$1,399,000
Jun 7: $1,380,000
Change – 19000.00 -1%

4582 Sunland Place, Burnaby

May 8:$1,480,000
Nov 17: $1,199,000

Change: – 281000.00 -19%

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/4582-sunland-place

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzV0ZFOA==

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/4582-sunland-place

4582 Sunland Place, Burnaby, BC, V5J 3A4
2016-10-15 : $1,399,000
2017-01-11 : $1,299,000
2017-02-02 : $1,499,000
2017-05-08 : $1,480,000
2017-06-07 : $1,380,000
2017-11-13 : $1,449,000
2017-11-17 : $1,199,000

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#36 Smoking Man on 01.25.18 at 6:55 pm

During a news conference to wrap up his trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trudeau was asked about allegations that women felt fearful about getting in the same elevator with Hehr at the Alberta Legislature, where he was a member from 2008 to 2015, and that Hehr had made unwanted sexually suggestive comments.

…..

So that’s Canada now, crack a joke on the elevator and lose your job. Guilty till you prove otherwise.

If a woman is in a foul mood and she dont like you, she can destroy your life. That’s were Canada is heading. That’s why I no longer live there. Saw it coming.

No trial, straight to the dog house.

#37 YVR Renter on 01.25.18 at 6:56 pm

Garth please don’t underestimate the influence of foreign investment in YVR house price unaffordabity. Yes Our friends and neighbors caused it too. This is our landlady’s brother the CEO of Macdonald Realty they mention is their mother. They have been marketing YVR to all types of buyers in Shanghai for a number of years now:
“B.C. Real Estate is Front and Centre in Shanghai – BC Business”—
https://www.bcbusiness.ca/bc-real-estate-is-front-and-centre-in-shanghai

#38 Newcomer on 01.25.18 at 6:56 pm

#11 Rents Skyrocketing
——-

You copied and pasted this from a few days ago. It should perhaps be pointed out that pumping here will not keep prices up.

#39 Crash Smash on 01.25.18 at 6:59 pm

We have been singing this RE crash song on this blog for years, years! And no major correction. I am telling you, this time is different. The moister generation is NOT afraid of debt, they don’t care. They will borrow as much as they can and manipulate their parents / relatives for money and buy something whether they should or not. As long as this generation is in buying mode, I don’t see any crash in site. Also, the inflow of money from other countries is happening and won’t be stopping anytime soon and they are buying real estate. Those people poping popcorn will just have to settle for watching tv. Listen, I am not a real estate pumper either, I rent, but I missed the boat. I would love there to be a Crash, but that movie just won’t play.

#40 Loosey on 01.25.18 at 7:01 pm

In what world is borrowing money from a HELOC to buy more real estate a Ponzi scheme? It’s incredibly risky leverage, but it’s not a Ponzi.

#41 ImGonnaBeSick on 01.25.18 at 7:09 pm

#21 how dare you assume the CMHC has gender…

#42 Not Screwed Millennial on 01.25.18 at 7:13 pm

Garth, can you make a blog post addressing if rents will indeed fall with house prices? The rag known as the Globe & Mail pumps the same drivel that poster #11 is spewing on an almost daily basis.

Currently I am wintering in South America and enjoying the lovely climate and culture here (for the record, I am under 25 and have no help from mom and dad. It is possible to travel and live large and work remotely as a Millie). Last night I was looking at rental digs in T.O on Craigslist…and Holy Flapjacks …. there is nothing that isn’t a basement cave for under $2000 … Gotta say I’m stupefied. We keep hearing about the competition for rental digs and it seems like the massive mortgages that are being shouldered (even with a correction) are gonna keep rents up.

I’m amazed that a mouldy cave lacking in any artificial light is being priced at anything more than $800.

#43 Dave on 01.25.18 at 7:22 pm

How long have you been saying there will be a crash in Vancouver? How many years now? How much are apartment rents? You can’t rent a decent 1 bedroom for under 2 grand a month. How does it make sense to rent in stead of buying?

So buy. – Garth

#44 conan on 01.25.18 at 7:23 pm

#18 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 01.25.18 at 5:56 pm

Bit of a waiting game, but I see Can – USA currency parity within the next 24 months.

https://i.imgur.com/8srChE2.mp4

#45 Greenhow on 01.25.18 at 7:28 pm

Garth, you should write about JT’s comments at Davos. Wow we as a country are in big, big trouble.

#46 AdrianT on 01.25.18 at 7:29 pm

#23 Loosey on 01.25.18 at 7:01 pm

“It’s incredibly risky leverage, but it’s not a Ponzi.”

*****

The price level for housing is largely set by the amount of new mortgage debt created in a year. This means that when most people’s debt levels are nearly maxed out and mortgage borrowing slows down, the prices for everyone’s housing falls even as their debts remain. The setup is destined to fail, eventually, and it crushes the last person to buy in, like a Ponzi scheme.

See the following correlation between Canadian household debt & housing prices:
http://www.profstevekeen.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/040717_1113_TheData144.jpg

From:
http://www.profstevekeen.com/data-on-credit-employment-and-house-prices/#Canada

#47 Dmitry on 01.25.18 at 7:29 pm

#34 Smoking Man

Hey Smoking Man, beware of SCM accusations :-)

Seriously, this was easy to predict by what was happening in Hollywood.
The stage was set so now politicians can be taken down easily as media pumps this BS.
I wonder where our Canada will end up with all this.
Things do not look good unfortunately.

Also now there might be a few women that accuse Trump and hey, look, in Canada there was couple of precedence set, so now it looks normal for him to resign right sway.
But Trump being Trump will call this fake news will ask accusers to go and flip themselves, unlike spineless slime politicians in Canada.
Will be interesting to see what happens.

#48 Old Ron the Realtor on 01.25.18 at 7:37 pm

TREB number due in 11 days. Garth is already salivating like a dog on a New York Strip Loin.

Not exactly. I wrote that we need six months of data to assess the impact of the stress test. Say, shouldn’t you be showing something? – Garth

#49 InvestorsFriend on 01.25.18 at 7:38 pm

Who’s Awash in Savings?

Loads of people have loads of debt. Checking any bank balance sheet the loans are funded at least 90% by deposits including including notably GICs. The remaining 10% is funded by the owners of the bank through common share owners, preferred equity owners or those who own debt issued by the bank.

It’s no wonder TFSA’s and RRSPs are stuffed with GICs and so-called high-interest savings accounts. Somebody has to own all those GICs and other deposits funding all that debt and its gotta be held somewhere.

And yes, the deposits were originally conjured out of the air by the bank as the mortgagor was issued. But then the new borrower took that deposit and paid for the house and the deposit was then owned by the home seller at least temporarily. At all times after the mortgage is issued the offsetting deposit is owned by someone or some business.

Those someone’s and businesses are awash in savings at the same time the other half or more of the population is awash in debt.

We sure as heck are NOT in this together.

#50 Man buns on 01.25.18 at 7:39 pm

I was under the impression that pre-approvals from late 2017 rollover into 2018 stress free; as a result, we wont see the true stress test results until at lease April/May 2018.

Please tell me I’m wrong.

#51 When the Whip Comes Down on 01.25.18 at 7:41 pm

Wow those are some stunningly bad daily sales in TO. The Victoria Real Estate Board stated the first two weeks of January 2018 only had 115 properties changing hands. And given the speck of a market Victoria is compared to TO, TOs results are really remarkably awful.

#52 Long-Time Lurker on 01.25.18 at 7:43 pm

I didn’t post this earlier because it was pure speculation but:

Ray Dalio, Bill Gross and Jeffrey Gundlach are all calling a U.S. bear bond market. It’s on ZeroHedge. If the US long bond market crashes due to rising interest rates is this going to trigger a correction in the US stock market? Is this going to produce an inverted yield curve which signals recession? With the Trump tax cuts in effect the US stock market is probably going to drop (correction) but the U.S. economy should continue to do well.

Also US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin seems to be deliberately weakening the US dollar.

Any thoughts?

#53 Doug t on 01.25.18 at 7:44 pm

Here in Victoria EVERYBODY believes we are untouchable as far as housing price correction go – people here can be damn smug I will tell u that – would like to see at least a 20% correction here to take the p*ss out of some them

RATM

#54 Loosey on 01.25.18 at 7:44 pm

@44

That’s all very interesting, but it has nothing in common with a Ponzi scheme.

It’s just using a secured line of credit to purchase an asset that happens to be in the same class. If you borrowed against your business to fund your business, nobody would call that a Ponzi scheme. But that’s the equivocation Garth is making.

I’m not saying it won’t end in tears, but it’s a bit theatrical to call it a Ponzi scheme.

#55 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 01.25.18 at 7:44 pm

#27 Newcomer on 01.25.18 at 6:42 pm
#8 bb on 01.25.18 at 5:16 pm
Its common for parents (Asian culture)…
——–

Dude, please. There is no such thing as “Asian culture.” Do you have any idea how big Asia is?
…………………………………….

There most definitely is such a thing as “Asian Culture “. I have Asians in my family tree and close relatives who are
Asian. I have been around the world half a dozen times and visited many “ Asian countries “. I have spent several years living in SE Asia. And I happen to be in Asia as I write this.
Garth can check my IP address I am sure. And i can tell u without a doubt that the culture in Asia varies slightly from country to country but as a whole it is much much different from ours.

Hey, I met a black dude once. Totally get it. – Garth

#56 Ardy on 01.25.18 at 7:55 pm

Mr. T, your blog was mentioned by an Andrew on CP24’s Hot Property. Al called you a hack and a non-expert in RE.

So funny.

Coming from Al, I shall covet this honour forever. He knows whereof he speaks. – Garth

#57 Chico on 01.25.18 at 7:57 pm

#27 Newcomer on 01.25.18 at 6:42 pm

#8 bb on 01.25.18 at 5:16 pm
Its common for parents (Asian culture)…
——–

Dude, please. There is no such thing as “Asian culture.” Do you have any idea how big Asia is?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asia

——————————-

I sir, am insulted by your use of logic on this blog!

#58 dr. talc on 01.25.18 at 8:06 pm

The gold standard of psy-op detection, Fakeologist, weighs in on the Patrick Brown media event

http://fakeologist.com/

#59 john m on 01.25.18 at 8:09 pm

Frightening!….

#60 mike on 01.25.18 at 8:12 pm

…and realtor orgy continues in GVR…

nice to see GTA numbers

#61 Toronto Tim on 01.25.18 at 8:14 pm

Garth-o,

Do you honestly think that detached homes in the prime neighborhoods in Toronto are in decline? And are you forecasting declines?

There are virtually no listings of any good homes in prime areas. Just take a browse on MLS.

And anything that is decent (and a lot that aren’t) sells. Many above ask and in multiple offer situations. Even an $8 Million dollar home in Rosedale had a multiple offer situation with 4 bidders.

You can see all the sold information on MongoHouse.

This is post interest rate increase, B20, foreign buyer tax, rent controls.

ANNEX:
404 Brunswick Ave / Semi
List: 1.45
Sold: 1.71

BLOOR WEST:

11 Glenlake / Detached
LIST: 1.29
Sold: 1.40

71 old mill dr / Detached
List: 1.69
Sold: 1.70

ROSEDALE/BENNINGTON HEIGHTS
56 Bin Scarth / Detached
List: 8.249
Sold: 8.40

228 Glen Rd / Detached
List: 1.99
Sold: 2.40

2 Orchard Green
List: 4.99
Sold: 5.00

This blog has stated, clearly, in the past that general price declines leave most prime, in-demand, areas unscathed. Nothing has changed, nor does this impact the vast majority of buyers, sellers or owners. – Garth

#62 Damifino on 01.25.18 at 8:27 pm

#41 Dave

How does it make sense to rent in stead of buying?
——————————

Here, let me help…

Based on the asking price of similar properties in the area, the YVR apartment I rent would sell for about 1.2M (if it weren’t a rental) and someone from the diminishing pool of a greater fools could be found to pay it.

To realize a respectable cap rate on that much money (quite doable on other types of investment), an owner would need to collect at least $6000/month.

My rent is half of that. The owner loses. QED.

#63 InvestorsFriend on 01.25.18 at 8:29 pm

What’s Backing the Canadain Dolalr?

#281 Gravy Train on 01.25.18 at 4:33 pm said:

“Warren Buffett says that cash is a call option on every asset class, with no expiration date or strike price.”

******************************
Indeed…

On a related matter people say the value of our dollar is backed by the government’s power of taxation.

I’m not so sure.

I would say that the Federal government’s debt as in bonds are backed by taxation power. Absolutely. Same for the debt provinces.

Technically, dollars in circulation are a liability of the Bank of Canada. But’s it’s a weird liability as there is no obligation of the Bank of Canada to give anything at all for said dollars except said dollars. Besides most cash is deposits created by banks and their customers.

What REALLY backs the value of a dollar is revealed in Buffett’s sentence. The Value of a fiat dollar lies only in what it will purchase (today and tomorrow).

And how is the value of what a dollar will purchase set? I believe it is set by the Canadian economy collectively. The Bank of Canada tries to control overall inflation. But they don’t control the price of houses or apples or much of anything.

The dollar is backed by the collective will of the people to accept it and to not continuously bid the prices of various things up too far. And by the ability of the Bank of Canada to keep inflation low.

In summary the value of a Canadian dollar is determined mostly collectively by market forces and has little to do with the ability of the government to tax the people. The Bank of Canada does not rely on taxing anyone when it attempts to increase or decrease inflation.

#64 Hugh Janus on 01.25.18 at 8:30 pm

Are we ever going to be screwed once the wrinkliest of boomers start ditching the luvshacks. As garth points out this will be a double whammy as a great many have taken out helocs among other creative forms of financing to shower some goodness on little johnie and have them buying real estate as well.

At least cmhc will be there when all hell breaks loose and jingle mail is the new buzz word. Thank god cmhc is backstopped by proper tax paying citizens that dont mind having their income taxes jacked to cover cmhc losses.

#65 PastThePeak on 01.25.18 at 8:33 pm

#37 Crash Smash on 01.25.18 at 6:59 pm

Well, I would caution against thinking things will always be “different this time”. Canada has the highest consumer debt levels in the world by GDP. Avg Canuck owes $172 for every $100 of income.

I don’t know by how much RE prices might decline when the major debt correction happens, but it will. I said myself that I don’t see that happening without an external event like a recession or global shock event. But those will happen in the not too distant future.

You are right – Canadians have lost their minds and will crank up the borrowing to the bitter end. But there will come a time they can’t borrow more. And when job losses start to impact mortgage payments, and credit is harder to get regardless of Poloz’s decisions, the great unwind WILL happen.

BTW, immigration might continue, but for those foreign investors that did buy here – they might head for the exits themselves if the money turns. Don’t expect them to keep prices bid up in a falling market.

#66 I foolishishly thinks I know something on 01.25.18 at 8:43 pm

What total BS. Since the meltdown, and even before, the GTA RE market has taken a few backward steps. Certainly. However, it’s always come back with a ROAR. Anyone contemplating a purchase and hoping to time the market should consider carefully when to jump in. When do you catch that falling knife? You could wait too long and miss the bottom and then wait years again for another backward step. Ask all the renters that have been left behind how that strategy has worked out for them.

Must be slow in the Re/Max office tonight. – Garth

#67 Karma on 01.25.18 at 8:47 pm

#38 Loosey on 01.25.18 at 7:01 pm
“In what world is borrowing money from a HELOC to buy more real estate a Ponzi scheme? It’s incredibly risky leverage, but it’s not a Ponzi.”

Read up on Hyman Minsky’s financial instability theory:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyman_Minsky

When income derived from property can’t fully repay interest and principal, then it’s called a “Ponzi borrower”.

Also, read about the “Ponzi Scheme” definition, it ain’t far off…: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme

#68 I foolishishly thinks I know something on 01.25.18 at 8:51 pm

“The Financial Planning Council says 37% of all Canadian parents have given (or plan to give) money to their spawn to buy a first home. Mortgage Professionals Canada says the flow of B of Mom downpayments has doubled in the last 17 years and some agents in Vancouver claim more than 80% of first-time buyers have a parental assist.” – Garth

——————————————-

Garth, it’s very funny how willing you are to accept anecdotal evidence when it suits your position. And from “agents” to boot.

Seems to me that is a more factual sentence than yours. – Garth

#69 Vancouver on 01.25.18 at 8:51 pm

stone cold total disaster

https://www.point2homes.com/CA/Home-For-Sale/BC/Vancouver/Riley-Park/73-East-40th-Ave/50708635.html

they have LOST THEIR MINDS out west

#70 steerage steeward on 01.25.18 at 8:53 pm

As long as you can save 15% of your take home for retirement, will not carry a credit card balance, and have six months of expenses saved, then by all means get into as much debt as you possibly can to buy a condo.. that joke never gets old.

#71 AisA on 01.25.18 at 8:55 pm

oh I can’t take it anymore..

Do all you rents are gonna go through the roof people think that everyone who held off buying is living in the streets? Or that renters waiting to pick your overextended bones are desperate???

good gawd damn.

#72 I foolishishly thinks I know something on 01.25.18 at 8:55 pm

“Besides CMHC insists any downpayment cannot be a repayable loan. In fact, Mom may have to sign a letter confirming exactly that – so gifting to a married child means taking a big chance that a fresh marriage will stick. More risk.” – Garth

—————————————————-

Any good Mom and/or Dad will cheerfully sign such a letter. Unless they’re afraid that CMHC will take them to court for fraud. That’s a real laugh.

Yes it is. The borrower would bear the brunt. – Garth

#73 Toronto on 01.25.18 at 9:03 pm

Hard to tell that Toronto price is really dropping. In the past months, most well maintained properties in good locations were sold over asking. A townhouse in 10 Douro St, Toronto was just sold 121.9K over asking, and over 30K more than a townhouse in the same complex sold a month ago. Maybe prices and turnover rates are dropping on an aggregate level, but not so much if you drill down to location and condition.

#74 SoggyShorts on 01.25.18 at 9:03 pm

#55 Chico on 01.25.18 at 7:57 pm
#27 Newcomer on 01.25.18 at 6:42 pm

#8 bb on 01.25.18 at 5:16 pm
Its common for parents (Asian culture)…
——–
Dude, please. There is no such thing as “Asian culture.” Do you have any idea how big Asia is?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asia
——————————-
I sir, am insulted by your use of logic on this blog!
***********************
When people say “Asian” they are not talking about the whole continent, because that is useless.
A guy living in Tokyo and another in Moscow are both in Asia, but only the Japanese dude is called Asian.
Part of this is because at some point in the last 10(15?) years the word “oriental” became non-PC, and was replaced by “South-East Asian” which we are too lazy to say, so people say “Asian” instead.
Technically a guy living in Brazil is “american” since he lives in south america, but that’s not how we use the word.
This of course varies from country to country, for example my SIL is from India and used to use the word “Asian” in the geographical sense too, but since living here for a while has adapted to the fact that most don’t mean India or Russia when they say “Asian”.

#75 stage1dave on 01.25.18 at 9:03 pm

Holy Crap! Mike Smith is a goin’ to the All Star game…what’s next, Giordano wins the Norris?

Sure see a lot of references to the Bank of Mom lately…if I’d asked mom for a down payment on my first home, I think my ass would still be sore…must be a generational thing. (She did, however, co-sign my first car loan)

Looks like wifey and I will rent for one more year. As much as I hate sounding like a broken record, prices continue to slide in the Edmonton area and from what I see around the trading area job-wise, housing will continue to get cheaper thanx to stress testing and rising interest rates, moribund oil patch, and so-so local economics.

Besides, LL has asked us to reup for another term and hinted he might lower the rent…kindof a no-brainer.

So I’ll be putin’ some more cash into the TFSA and buyin’ a couple more fox bodies, and probably another turbo car…this 4×4 stuff in the winter is suckin’ pretty hard…can’t even enjoy my hiway onramps anymore!

#76 Boombust on 01.25.18 at 9:04 pm

#69 Vancouver

Don’t be so dumb. They’re operating on delusional Spring, 2016 prices on that dump.

Besides, they can “ask” what they want. What they “get” (especially in today’s SFD market)is a whole different matter.

#77 Loosey on 01.25.18 at 9:12 pm

@65 Karma

Let me put it this way. In Garth’s example of a parent drawing on their HELOC to provide a child with a down payment for a property, who is at the top of the pyramid, and who is at the bottom? In what way is the party at the top using the party at the bottom to gain wealth?

That is the fundamental structure of a Ponzi scheme. It doesn’t fit with Garth’s example, because using credit to purchase an asset is not a Ponzi scheme. Rather, it is one of the most common financial transactions we make nowadays, just on a larger scale.

Juat because something causes a ripple effect, does not make it a Ponzi.

#78 Lisa on 01.25.18 at 9:15 pm

With Jag on the horizon, and the attitude that actions have no consequences (see yesterday) we are all screwed!
I am 38 but I would not assume that any ‘investment” whether RE or otherwise are bulletproof.
It just shows that despite all the post secondary education people get they lack common sense.
Btw: Ray Skunk you killed me yesterday! Whitby as the President’s Choice version of Milton..;)

#79 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.25.18 at 9:16 pm

#37 Crash Smash on 01.25.18 at 6:59 pm
We have been singing this RE crash song on this blog for years, years! And no major correction. I am telling you, this time is different.

——————

Rates were falling all of those years and lending standards were lax. Now rates are rising and the gubmint is tightening the screws with brutal new lending regulations.

^ Equals less $ money lent.

Prices will fall, it’s just a matter of how far and how quickly. I think it will be epic.

#80 Al on 01.25.18 at 9:17 pm

” I get the kids whining their house in WHITBY is worth $90K less…get used to it. It’s only begun”

I’m going to be pedantic here but the 54 yr olds where the ones whining about 90K. The kids where also whining, but only about the 75K. Whining is intergenerational.

#81 AisA on 01.25.18 at 9:19 pm

#73 Toronto

That’s the point, only what’s presentable is selling, that leaves about 85% of the Canadian market with their 1960’s kitchens and 1940’s bathrooms and year 3030 taxes out of the loop!

Lulz

#82 re., 76 on 01.25.18 at 9:21 pm

thanks, i’ll try to not be so dumb next time. Thankfully, we have enlighted cartoon characters like you to correct the misguided.

‘Besides, they can “ask” what they want. What they “get” (especially in today’s SFD market)is a whole different matter.’

there’s wisdom for ya…..:)

#83 pay your taxes on 01.25.18 at 9:24 pm

A good friend of mine bought a 2 bed/2 bath condo on the North Shore 1.5 years ago for 770 k. He sold it 6 months later for 1 million. Then he bought a new 2/2 in New West for 630 k, lived in it for a year and just sold it for 800 k two days after listing, for full asking price.

I agree that this can’t go on forever Garth, but despite the “pink snow” examples, many things are moving here in Vancouver and at high prices. I don’t know what Mark is reading ( smoking ?)when he talks about a price freeze since 2013, because it just isn’t the case. Everyone I know who has sold recently has made serious money and I’m very happy for them.

#84 For those about to flop... on 01.25.18 at 9:25 pm

Recent Sale Report.

This house in the Quilchena area of Vancouver just sold.

1957 w 37th ave,Vancouver.

Originally asking 3.39 then 3.19

Just sold for 3.00

Tax assessment 3.56

I know my blog buddy Smartalox likes these ones.

Got another one I’m following up in the 5 bracket asking close to a million less than assessed.

My assessment is that the assessment was assessed incorrectly…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1957-w-37th-avenue

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#85 Zapstrap on 01.25.18 at 9:26 pm

#69 Vancouver on 01.25.18 at 8:51 pm

stone cold total disaster

they have LOST THEIR MINDS out west

I figure it must be something given off by the Arbutus trees out here that makes it different.

#86 Danny on 01.25.18 at 9:27 pm

I know people who have good public service and teacher pensions. Good amount of savings.
Had bad experience with previous investment in mutual funds.
Instead bought second condo few years back when bank savings interest was lowest in their past 50 years….earning very little from bank savings.

Maybe many on these Canadians who own more than one house are people like these.

I am sure that a review of past few years statistics on more than one house ownership …probably will show that condo purchases was up when there was low interest from savings in bank.

So for thousands who have enough savings and don’t feel secure about the stock market….would rather get rent money from renting out condo instead of saving interest money in the bank.

Until interest handed out by banks increases substantially………..more will rather invest in condo real estate because they feel nervous about the stock market and condos require less maintenance/repairs than single lot houses.

That’s probably more than 4 years off…..if the trend continues.

The problem will be when these baby boomers die in large numbers just because there are so many of them…the market will be flooded with condominiums for sale.

Again given that the average for passing away is the age of 84….that is from 10 to 15 years off.

#87 ImGonnaBeSick on 01.25.18 at 9:32 pm

Totally off topic, but I like the opinions in this blog. So please tell me if this is a correct assumption: assuming you could use the rise of minimum wage to calculate “real” inflation, in 2008 I was 8.50, in 2018 it is now 14.00. So using a very simple XIRR function, I believe this calculates real inflation as being 5.48%/year… I wonder how this correlates with housing prices in the same period…

#88 Larry Nassar for Ontario PC Leader on 01.25.18 at 9:36 pm

Hey Canucks!

I’m hoping to get some sponsors from the guys in this comment section who think like I do, and move to Canada….QUICK.

I hear there’s a job just opened up in provincial politics.

For the Ontario PC party (that means Pedophiles and Creeps, right?)

I’m your man!!

#89 ImGonnaBeSick on 01.25.18 at 9:40 pm

Sorry to answer my own question, but I looked it up: avg house in GTA was 361,000 in 2008 and 735,000 in 2017. Simple XIRR gives us 7.36%/yr gain in housing… Better than inflation, surr. But not better than a balanced investment such as Garth suggests. Plus illiquid.

Now deduct the land transfer costs, sales commission and nine years of property tax. – Garth

#90 Smoking Man on 01.25.18 at 9:47 pm

I found it strange that with Wynees popularity on the toilet why she dident step down and why the party dident give her the boot.

They knew about the Brown stuff long time ago. Conservatives need to find a strong alpha leader that will match the pure of her rival.

#91 steph on 01.25.18 at 9:48 pm

Garth, does that guy “Rob McLister” really exists?
Did you make up that name?

It sounds so weird

#92 Lisa on 01.25.18 at 9:49 pm

My last post should say “investments”. Dang auto correct!
But Garth, really, it IS different this time. All those special snowflakes “owning” RE and now starting to run for office… oh boy…I’m moving to one of the banana republics.

#93 Karma on 01.25.18 at 9:51 pm

Garth,

After reading this, I think this steerage section could be considered social media…

https://longreads.com/2018/01/24/is-2018-the-year-we-step-away-from-social-media/

#94 TheDood on 01.25.18 at 9:51 pm

#69 Vancouver on 01.25.18 at 8:51 pm
stone cold total disaster

https://www.point2homes.com/CA/Home-For-Sale/BC/Vancouver/Riley-Park/73-East-40th-Ave/50708635.html

they have LOST THEIR MINDS out west
___________________________________________
Yup! YVR has the largest population of financial illiterates in the western world!

#95 Reality is stark on 01.25.18 at 9:52 pm

Who really loses? She wants the house. If the price goes up it was her idea. When the price goes down it’s your fault. The losses will come out of your pocket.
As good jobs disappear in the western world you need to be disciplined and not buy at the top of any market. You do not have to give in to shame for someone else’s misplaced anxiety.

#96 paulo on 01.25.18 at 10:07 pm

#50

hope your agreement of purchase and sale is dated DEC 31,2017 or earlier.

most pre approvals are subject to meeting normal in place rules and regulations in effect on the date you
request the lender to firm up and advance funding.

depending on the institution and fine print within there commitment letter you may find you are subject to B20.
Due diligence is the advice of the day: confirm with your lender the exact standing of your pre approval
before you even consider signing a firm offer

#97 TurnerNation on 01.25.18 at 10:07 pm

Beware of trends. This year a massive (controlled) media push on the homeless population of Toronto.

They sleep outside instead of a designated shelter, where you may be beat, robbed, and get ejected early in the morning every morning. Outside affords freedom – sleep in, smoke, drink. Sally Ann still provides meals, I see ’em at Queen E /Jarvis area.

The ‘solution’? What about killing higher end property values with the strategic placement of shelters?
Kind of early but keep an eye on this possible trend:

https://www.blogto.com/city/2018/01/toronto-buys-building-annex-homeless-shelter/

– Shoot up in Leslieville. Drug money will come from pilfering yours cars, houses, and govt assistance?:

https://www.insidetoronto.com/community-story/7356333-safe-injection-site-approved-in-leslieville/

#98 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 01.25.18 at 10:09 pm

In little more than a week will come the first indication of how stressed we are about the stress test. In Toronto, for example, an average of 14 properties have changed hands daily during January. That compares with 63 a day last year – a 77% decline. Ouch!

OUCH! We all know the dirty SHYSTERS will try to spin spin spin.

#99 Vancouver on 01.25.18 at 10:19 pm

#11 smartalix
I think you are right. Lot more rental units popping up on craigslist. One of my friends trying to rent his unit since Dec 17. Price drop by $200so far, no luck. Price was too high to start with in this city of greed called Vancouver. At least Lot more listing thanks to empty home tax. Hopefully, less empty heads down the road and drop in rental and housing prices in general.

#100 Newcomer on 01.25.18 at 10:19 pm

#43 Dave on 01.25.18 at 7:22 pm
…You can’t rent a decent 1 bedroom for under 2 grand a month. How does it make sense to rent in stead of buying?
—–

https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/search/van/apa?hasPic=1&bundleDuplicates=1&searchNearby=2&max_price=1900&min_bedrooms=1&availabilityMode=0&sale_date=all+dates

#101 Dead Cat Bounce on 01.25.18 at 10:19 pm

#69 Vancouver on 01.25.18 at 8:51 pm
stone cold total disaster

https://www.point2homes.com/CA/Home-For-Sale/BC/Vancouver/Riley-Park/73-East-40th-Ave/50708635.html

they have LOST THEIR MINDS out west

———————————————————

Delusional !!! Only one 8 in that price !

#102 LivinLarge on 01.25.18 at 10:22 pm

Not Screwed…”I’m amazed that a mouldy cave lacking in any artificial light is being priced at anything more than $800.” I presume you meant “any natural light” but regardless, the last time a mouldy cave in Hog Town rented for $800 was before you were born.

#103 jas on 01.25.18 at 10:24 pm

Ok folks,
all the obvious is not visible to my partner. How the heck do I convince her that this is the last chance to get off this train of RE.
I am frrrrrusssstrrraaated!!

#104 45north on 01.25.18 at 10:28 pm

Soggy: A guy living in Tokyo and another in Moscow are both in Asia, but only the Japanese dude is called Asian.

Moscow is in Europe

Moscow is a major political, economic, cultural, and scientific centre of Russia and Eastern Europe, as well as the largest city entirely on the European continent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow

#105 ben on 01.25.18 at 10:36 pm

See this is what I want to see. I don’t want to see some fool saying prices are going to bounce back. It lacks effort. Why haven’t they put the effort in? Because they are not *desperate*.

“Rents Skyrocketing” on the other hand has taken a round-about approach. He’s not putting his hand straight down your pants. He’s getting to know you. The real you. He wants to help you. He wants to give you advice.

Now that is what I call *desperate*.

Keep ’em coming “Rents Skyrocketing”.

#106 PastThePeak on 01.25.18 at 10:38 pm

#97 45north on 01.25.18 at 10:28 pm

Moscow is a major political, economic, cultural, and scientific centre of Russia and Eastern Europe, as well as the largest city entirely on the European continent.
=================================
Trivia time – and why that qualifier at the end of the sentence “..entirely on the European continent”?

Which city is larger, but isn’t entirely in Europe…?

And lets be honest here…don’t use Google…

#107 PastThePeak on 01.25.18 at 10:39 pm

Regarding Patrick Brown, read something with a different perspective (from a female reporter)…

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/christie-blatchford-what-happened-to-brown-is-fundamentally-wrong-every-man-in-the-world-is-now-vulnerable

#108 InvestorsFriend on 01.25.18 at 10:41 pm

House versus Balanced Investments

#89 ImGonnaBeSick on 01.25.18 at 9:40 pm
Sorry to answer my own question, but I looked it up: avg house in GTA was 361,000 in 2008 and 735,000 in 2017. Simple XIRR gives us 7.36%/yr gain in housing… Better than inflation, surr. But not better than a balanced investment such as Garth suggests. Plus illiquid.

Now deduct the land transfer costs, sales commission and nine years of property tax. – Garth

***********************************
Sure, subtract those. But should we not add back nine years of rent not paid or something to account for the “dividend” associated with living in the house?

#109 Ronaldo on 01.25.18 at 10:41 pm

#69 Vancouver on 01.25.18 at 8:51 pm

stone cold total disaster

https://www.point2homes.com/CA/Home-For-Sale/BC/Vancouver/Riley-Park/73-East-40th-Ave/50708635.html

they have LOST THEIR MINDS out west
—————————————————————-
Yes they have. You would have to be able to get $9800 per month rent to make it a viable investment. At least 4 times overvalued.

#110 When the Whip Comes Down on 01.25.18 at 10:51 pm

If the cmhc insists any downpayment can’t be a repayable loan then how did B.C. get a $37,500 max loan approved to would be first time buyers by Christy’s govt? I seem to recall her going on about how hard it is to save so they though the province should loan them a matching amount up to 5 percent on a max $750k place. Sorry but I have had too much scotch tonight and am too lazy to research myself.

#111 Smoking Man on 01.25.18 at 10:51 pm

Before Trump won the globalist were cooking you slowly like a lobster.

Now that Trump is in they will destroy us by dividing us. Its blue print. T2 follows it to a Tee.

Those minions do everything in there power to inside racism, gender wars. Youth vs Old

The only thing that’s keeping them from power are strong family’s and communities. Just watch what happens to families now that the are set to pop the housing bubble.

Can you beilive the nerve of George Soros saying Trump will vanish by 2020 if not sooner.

What that senial old bastard don’t get. We are Trump. Trump just did what a good capitilist dose he just capitalized on our sentiment.

My bet is George will be long gone before Trump.

#112 DON on 01.25.18 at 10:52 pm

Garth

When you have time check out the Westhills development in Langford BC – 18 km from downtown Victoria. Houses crammed in 5 – 6 ft apart wall to wall. Particle board house, town houses and 750 sq ft miniature house no were than the two car car port on the front. Lots of fore sale signs and one sold (miniature house). Three signs indicated that sales were pending. Different messages on the for sale signs. They are going crazy over building on rocky slopes with exposure to the wind. With houses being that close you really have to rely on your neighbors to not burn down the hood.

On another note people around me are noticing the interest increases on LOC small loans. People I know a young and older couple listing to get rid of the large mortgages.

#113 poy on 01.25.18 at 10:55 pm

no crash. Condo goings going up for 2018. well see how who comes out ahead.

#114 Ronaldo on 01.25.18 at 10:57 pm

#86 Danny

Again given that the average for passing away is the age of 84….that is from 10 to 15 years off.
——————————————————————
Correct. And as the oldest of that group, we don’t plan to ever move into a condo and many others my age group feel the same way. We quite like the elbow room. The developers havn’t quite figured out what we want yet. Maybe some day they’ll clue in.

#115 BC Auto on 01.25.18 at 11:28 pm

https://mvsabc.com/whats-new/bc-shows-record-level-new-vehicle-sales-2017/

November was down too, January will be worse….3 months straight

Lots a repos showing up on the hook too

Leading indicators of trouble

#116 Surfers rule the world on 01.25.18 at 11:29 pm

#111 Smoking Man on 01.25.18 at 10:51 pm

Before Trump won the globalist were cooking you slowly like a lobster.

Now that Trump is in they will destroy us by dividing us. Its blue print. T2 follows it to a Tee.

Those minions do everything in there power to inside racism, gender wars. Youth vs Old

The only thing that’s keeping them from power are strong family’s and communities. Just watch what happens to families now that the are set to pop the housing bubble.

Can you beilive the nerve of George Soros saying Trump will vanish by 2020 if not sooner.

What that senial old bastard don’t get. We are Trump. Trump just did what a good capitilist dose he just capitalized on our sentiment.

My bet is George will be long gone before Trump.
..

Who cares….

Learn to surf dude.. ride the waves of life

#117 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 01.25.18 at 11:36 pm

I see you dirty useless uneducated lying sacks of poop are out telling fairytales tonight? OUCH you SHYSTERS must be financially hurting real bad. No sales no money and back taxes to pay. Your lies are useless now since stupid people can not borrow crazy sums of money anymore. The RE game is finished for years to come. RE WILL BLEED FOR YEARs. Many of you will be bankrupt well before the market can turn around. Back taxes can not be be just forgiven. Happy Housing Crash SHYSTERS

Happy Housing Crash Everyone:-)

Keep telling us more of your stupid fictional stories. As if your stupid stories will turn this crashing market around. BAhahahhahahha

#118 n1tro on 01.25.18 at 11:36 pm

This one is for Trumpocalypse and any one else in their bunker eating rations waiting for the end. Don’t worry about falling house prices or Bitcoin bubbles, apparently it is 2 mins until midnight ie. the end of the world!

http://www.cbc.ca/1.4502382

#119 Bad Cowboy on 01.25.18 at 11:43 pm

#13 Gulf Breeze, the $C is not strengthening , the USD is being adroitly stickhandled down. The Davo’s Crowd, Le Garde and the EU rabble are all bitching about it. The EUro is rising quickly and making US products cheaper and EU exports less competitive….way to go Trump. The $C is plunging against all other currencies , especially in Asia, which are rising against the USD and $C.

Canadian market is taking a pounding, no good news there. The Trudeau Wrecking Crew are saying the exact wrong things about why we will not become more competitive….so why should foreign money come here….for his ducky socks….not. Canada is dying under this bunch….no matter what the CBC says…..the market is speaking with its wallet.

What’s really amazing is that Canadians aren’t being told that our media is being blocked and gagged from meetings where Trudeau is saying some incredibly stupid things.

#120 Ross on 01.26.18 at 12:05 am

I have a confession to make, I search every post’s comment section for the key word “Victoria” so I can see what my fellow residents are noticing. I enjoy how our fair region came up at least three times in the comments today, we have such a strange housing market…there is not much supply or land left to build it on to increase supply, so it sometimes feels that we are more “insulated” than the other major Canadian housing markets.

I’m not sure this is really the case, it’s not exactly cheap to live here, real estate aside, but we know that whether you rent or buy it’s your largest expense. I feel like the secret is out on the region, though. Growth is exploding and every year it seems like people are coming to enjoy the best year round climate in the nation.

I used to attend the Victoria real estate board meetings when I sold contractor supplies, but now that I am back in the tech sector I only keep up with the listings and happenings online.

I will continue to rent as it stands, I don’t see any stability here. I guess we’re still part of Canada after all.

#121 Victor on 01.26.18 at 12:29 am

A lovely Richmond Hill. Had to sell for 33% less of what wanted 5 months ago.
https://www.mongohouse.com/soldrecords/5a689e9394ab3a52ec9a9024

#122 Smoking Man on 01.26.18 at 12:41 am

Virginia Woolf was a full blown angree mental case. Her writing style sucks.
I’m way better.

Suck it up progressive weirdos.

#123 BCWally on 01.26.18 at 12:43 am

Thanks for highlighting the HELOC situation for everyone Garth.
I just ran some numbers through an online HELOC calculator and it looks to me that a 2% increase doubles the monthly payment for Mom and Dad, on a ten year timeline. This is if they only pay the interest monthly and no principal.
HELOC loans therefore have the same potential of bankrupting as an overextended credit card balance.
To me, this is the basis of a subprime loan Canadian style and this is where the credit collapse will begin.
I’m beginning to see where the system has been gamed on multiple levels passing responsibility much like the American experience of 2005-2006. At least this time the banks will be fine, but does anybody know if you can buy a credit default swap on VanCity?

#124 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 01.26.18 at 12:56 am

#92 Lisa on 01.25.18 at 9:49 pm
But Garth, really, it IS different this time. All those special snowflakes “owning” RE and now starting to run for office… oh boy…I’m moving to one of the banana republics.
……………………..

It really is different this time. People used to say that “real estate markets are local”. But not any more, real estate is global, and anyone with cash and a computer can buy where markets are most favourable to their cash…..ahem, like GVRD.

#125 Smoking Man on 01.26.18 at 1:02 am

Is it just me that sees this.

Male libtards and progressive feminist champions are the first to denounce sexual assault.

Yet when the head lines come out with a new story of a new deviant assault. Its 95% of the time a liberal.

Hypocracy at its finest.

#126 Nonplused on 01.26.18 at 1:27 am

Well I don’t have too much to add to Garth’s post today so I thought I’d go off script.

The subject: How extending ideas and logical constructs beyond their application leads to folly.

My 11 year old son was reflecting last night on the great time travel paradox in “Back to the Future”, where it might be possible to cause your parents not to hook up, but then you wouldn’t exist, so you couldn’t go back and do it. Well this is great fun for movies, but in reality the past does not exist. It existed once as the present and we have plenty of artifacts and fossils and sedimentary layers indicating what it was like and we can construct dioramas in our museums to give an “artists impression”, but the past does not exist anymore. Time travel to the past is impossible because it isn’t there. You would have to somehow rewind the entire universe. Even if it were theoretically possible, it would take all the energy in the universe to do it. There is no earth existing in the past on which the Delorean could land. Thinking about time travel is an example of where our brains fail us. We imagine the past as another place. It is not. It no longer exists.

The future doesn’t really exist either. It will exist but it will manifest itself as the present at that time. You can get there, maybe hibernate or something, but you can’t come back. And you can only go to the future present where you wake up.

So all “paradoxes” involving time travel really aren’t paradoxes at all. You can’t travel through time because there is nowhere and now “when” to travel to. It’s just a fallibility of the human mind to extend human logic beyond it’s usefulness. We think of time like a video or an old movie real and maybe you can just go back a certain number of frames, but in reality the frames don’t exist and whatever was is no more.

He was on a role so he asked about life on other planets. “Sure why not”, I said. “There are a lot of stars out there, an unimaginable number of them, so surely some of them have planets like earth.” But that doesn’t mean that there are aliens visiting us. How would they get here if c, the speed of light, is in fact the maximum speed in the universe? For an earth based mission to our nearest star, assuming we could achieve the speed of light, it would be a 50 year round trip. So who is going to make a voyage that mike take generations? How would you feed everyone? Why bother. It’s quite simple, there are no aliens visiting us. They can’t get here, and we’ll never get there. At least not according to our current understanding of physics. But yet people think interstellar travel might work something like taking a plane from Newark to Heathrow. That’s not how it would work. In fact it can’t work. We can’t even build a car that might last 200,000 years, let alone a self sufficient society in space that could last that long. Again, what our brains are doing is assuming that all travel is similar to travel we are experienced with. That’s why the time machine was a car.

Unfortunately the whole world of political economics works the same way. $15 dollars an hour? Why not? Well, because nobody has the money to pay those wages. Carbon taxes? Why not? Well maybe because nobody has the money to pay those either. Doesn’t matter the money will come from space according to Nutley and Turdeau. It’s all in the name of a “just” society.

But what is a “just” society? Out here where I live you have to have at least a 75 pound dog or the coyotes eat all your cats and threaten small children. And even with the 75 pound dog the coyotes will gang up on them if they get too far from the house. That is a “just” society in nature. We have “transposed” that sort of existence, they say. Well, that is another over extension of human logic and recent experience, experience that only a small portion of the population has ever experienced and only for a short time, and only within the bounds of their own nation. WWII wasn’t that long ago.

So the point of my comment today is this: The way you think might be pretty good for getting you through your daily life, but it’s pretty much useless for anything else. Unless you can program a computer, and by that I mean say like make an app, you probably cannot even describe your own thought process. It just happens and you are just riding the wave.

#127 Karma on 01.26.18 at 1:47 am

#91 steph on 01.25.18 at 9:48 pm
“Garth, does that guy “Rob McLister” really exists?
Did you make up that name?

It sounds so weird”

Yep, he owns this website:
https://www.ratespy.com/

#128 Karma on 01.26.18 at 1:55 am

#106 PastThePeak on 01.25.18 at 10:38 pm
#97 45north on 01.25.18 at 10:28 pm

Moscow is a major political, economic, cultural, and scientific centre of Russia and Eastern Europe, as well as the largest city entirely on the European continent.
=================================
“Trivia time – and why that qualifier at the end of the sentence “..entirely on the European continent”?

Which city is larger, but isn’t entirely in Europe…?

And lets be honest here…don’t use Google…”

Istanbul!

#129 adam on 01.26.18 at 2:05 am

Garth,

FYI, the realtor stats about the number of sales so far this month are not very helpful. When the boards put out their monthly stats, they are counting completed transactions that month. The stats you are getting from a realtor via the back end of MLS are essentially deals where the subjects have been removed – “firm” deals. They usually do not complete for a month or two down the road so won’t be counted by the board in their distributed stats until Feb, March or April when they actually complete. For instance, when the Vancouver Board put out their November stats package it says 841 detached sales happened. When I look at the back end of MLS it says there were only 782 detached sales in November. The difference is they are counting completed deals whereas the stats the realtors see are “firm” deals where the subjects have all been removed. “Firm” deals are not always firm though as sometimes when people show up on completion day they don’t actually have the money to complete. These are then recorded as “collapsed”.

The “firm” deals also take time to get registered and put into the back end of MLS. From the numbers you have above, it sounds like sales in TO have gone down 77%. That will not be the case when the board comes out with their stats on Feb. 5th. For comparison Vancouver had 439 “firm” solds from Jan 1 to Jan 25, 2017 and only 192 from Jan. 1 to Jan 25. 2018. A drop of 56%. As more solds get entered though, they get back dated into the system so when I check Jan 1 to Jan 25 2018, next week, the 192 number will go up. This also has nothing to do with what the board releases as they are counting completed transactions and not the “firm” solds.

#130 Musty Basement Dweller on 01.26.18 at 2:05 am

This is an interesting article. It looks like Ontario is 30 years ahead of BC in closing tax avoidance loopholes regarding real estate. Maybe Premier John will fix this in the February budget. http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-will-b-c-close-a-notorious-tax-avoiding-real-estate-loophole

#131 our pal Val on 01.26.18 at 2:10 am

Garth what are the possibilities of the FED hiking .5% vs the standard .25%….The Donald certainly likes to shake things up !!

#132 Vanrentor on 01.26.18 at 2:10 am

Dirtbag alert

“If you are interested in purchasing a condo in the locals first construction developments and are not a resident look no further. I am a local resident and will qualify. Contact me and we can arrange a deal worth my time and accessibility to the market.”

https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/reo/d/locals-first-condos-presale/6473208563.html

#133 Nija car loans on 01.26.18 at 2:11 am

Something is really wrong when people in social assistance get loans for vehicles. I now know two people who got cars with no income and have not had jobs for decades

#134 morrey on 01.26.18 at 2:27 am

Dear Commenters to this pathetic blog.
Please write in sentences. Use a spellchecker or edit your submission before posting. Show respect for the english language. This applies to the majority of the contributors.

jeez.

#135 T on 01.26.18 at 2:48 am

Not exactly on topic, I apologize. It’s fresh and I had to share. I think some of you may find this amusing.

This video does a good job explaining the crypto market and investors.

Enjoy!

https://www.facebook.com/vinnie.hecht/posts/158520548265338:0

#136 SoggyShorts on 01.26.18 at 3:10 am

#104 45north on 01.25.18 at 10:28 pm
Moscow is in Europe
*****************
Bleh.
Here is a map of Asia:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/69/Map_of_Asia_%28pt%29.png
Notice that ALL of Russia is Asian, and none of Turkey is Asian

Here is another one:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c6/Map_of_Asia_draft.png
Notice there’s now suddenly some vague area called “European Russia” and Turkey got kicked out of Europe?

A perfect example of how made up random lines on a map are a useless distinction. People and their cultures don’t suddenly change when crossing an imaginary line.

I stand by my statement that when a Canadian says “Asian” they don’t mean turkish, Indian, or Russian etc.

Right or wrong, when discussing the cultures in that part of the world we break them into
Middle eastern
European
Russian
Asian

#137 Howard on 01.26.18 at 4:38 am

#107 PastThePeak on 01.25.18 at 10:39 pm

Regarding Patrick Brown, read something with a different perspective (from a female reporter)…

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/christie-blatchford-what-happened-to-brown-is-fundamentally-wrong-every-man-in-the-world-is-now-vulnerable

——————————–

Blatchford demonstrates again why she is one of the most popular columnists in the country. A brilliant and damning critique of a MeToo movement now reaching inquisitionist levels.

#138 Howard on 01.26.18 at 5:08 am

Another dissenting voice from a highly regarded female columnist :

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/25/patrick-browns-downfall-an-affront-to-fairness.html

#139 Midnights on 01.26.18 at 5:38 am

Jack Mintz: If Trudeau ever accepts reality, here’s how he can save Canada’s competitiveness

http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/jack-mintz-if-trudeau-ever-accepts-reality-heres-how-he-can-save-canadas-competitiveness

#140 LivinLarge on 01.26.18 at 5:46 am

“Which city is larger, but isn’t entirely in Europe…?”…Istanbul? It’s the only city I can think of that isn’t entirely in the European continent.

#141 Penny Henny on 01.26.18 at 5:58 am

Altus Group, which collects data on the construction sector, said builders sold 7,700 new single-family homes in the Greater Toronto Area last year, the lowest number recorded since the firm began tracking construction trends over a decade ago.
Single-family homes include detached and semi-detached houses as well as townhouses.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/tale-of-two-markets-2017-toronto-condo-demand-soared-while-sales-of-new-single-family-homes-slumped/article37738503/

#142 ImGonnaBeSick on 01.26.18 at 6:24 am

#89 ImGonnaBeSick on 01.25.18 at 9:40 pm
Sorry to answer my own question, but I looked it up: avg house in GTA was 361,000 in 2008 and 735,000 in 2017. Simple XIRR gives us 7.36%/yr gain in housing… Better than inflation, surr. But not better than a balanced investment such as Garth suggests. Plus illiquid.

Now deduct the land transfer costs, sales commission and nine years of property tax. – Garth
________________________________

Ah! Yes, of course. I’ve been reading for some time, and forgot about these key costs. As far as making an adjustment for saved rent payments, you could argue that you would have to also make an adjustment for upkeep and renovations then, possibly offsetting some years completely (a kitchen for 40g, or a bathroom for 20g). Just looking at the easy numbers, we can see how housing can “look” or be spun to look like a decent investment but when digging just a little, in reality, the gains are quite poor, even in big areas like the GTA.

It does keep the rain off your head (unless you buy that sh****le from a couple days ago – oof) and of course has non tangible value, but they are definitely a poor investment (keyword) if held for any length of time. As far as short term gains – first, that’s gambling, not investing, and second, we’ve been living in exceptional times… Doubtful it will continue, or happen again anytime soon.

#143 FLHTK on 01.26.18 at 6:28 am

I think people are in way over their heads and it’s just a matter of time before people start chucking the keys at the bank door! The Government is to blame for allowing such cheap interest rates for so long! What did they really think people wouldn’t go over their heads and take on more? Unless your in canadas top 1% of income earners and can sprinkle the dividends, lifes tough these days for a lot.

#144 IHCTD9 on 01.26.18 at 7:21 am

#107 PastThePeak on 01.25.18 at 10:39 pm
Regarding Patrick Brown, read something with a different perspective (from a female reporter)…

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/christie-blatchford-what-happened-to-brown-is-fundamentally-wrong-every-man-in-the-world-is-now-vulnerable
_____

Yep. Pretty scary stuff. Due process tossed aside along with the castration of any subsequent innocent verdict. Brown is done like Dinner thanks to a couple accusations from 2 anonymous, faceless Women. It’s a baaad time to be Male in Canada.

At any rate, evidently no one gives a rip anywhere about Due process, rule of law, innocent until proven guilty and all that time consuming stuff. If these Brown style public executions keep happening, it will be the best incentive yet to finally just gtfo out of this place.

There must be some Women out there that recognize how wrong this whole “me-too” stuff is getting. Don’t any of them have Fathers/Brothers/Sons?

#145 Howard on 01.26.18 at 7:22 am

#102 LivinLarge on 01.25.18 at 10:22 pm

Not Screwed…”I’m amazed that a mouldy cave lacking in any artificial light is being priced at anything more than $800.” I presume you meant “any natural light” but regardless, the last time a mouldy cave in Hog Town rented for $800 was before you were born.

—————————————

For a basement apartment?? Sure there were, though I think you know that.

$800 for a basement apartment or even a highrise bachelor apt in Toronto was very common around 10 years ago. Maybe not at Yonge & Bloor, but certainly on a subway line. In North York you could find one in the $500-600 range.

I was paying $850/month all inclusive for a 700 sq ft bachelor apt at Yonge & Eglinton in 2006. Older building but well-maintained. I worked at Yonge & Davisville so my commute was a 15-minute walk to and from. No car or subway pass needed. Wasn’t earning much money back then but I do miss those days.

#146 Howard on 01.26.18 at 7:29 am

#136 SoggyShorts on 01.26.18 at 3:10 am

#104 45north on 01.25.18 at 10:28 pm
Moscow is in Europe
*****************
Bleh.
Here is a map of Asia:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/69/Map_of_Asia_%28pt%29.png
Notice that ALL of Russia is Asian, and none of Turkey is Asian

Here is another one:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c6/Map_of_Asia_draft.png
Notice there’s now suddenly some vague area called “European Russia” and Turkey got kicked out of Europe?

——————————–

“European Russia” is not a new thing. The region west of the Urals has always been considered Europe. East of the Urals – Asia.

Geologically, Europe and Asia constitute one large continent, Eurasia. The division into two continents is purely a political invention.

The landmass of India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka was separate and has a greater claim to being a continent unto itself than Europe does. Hence the term “Indian subcontinent”.

#147 IHCTD9 on 01.26.18 at 7:33 am

#143 FLHTK on 01.26.18 at 6:28 am

…it’s just a matter of time before people start chucking the keys at the bank door!
_____________

That’s a good way to get sued by the CMHC.

Liquidate your assets and bury proceeds in friendly back yard before throwing keys!

#148 Gravy Train on 01.26.18 at 7:33 am

#36 Smoking Man on 01.25.18 at 6:55 pm
“If a woman is in a foul mood, and she do[es]n[’]t like you, she can destroy your life.”

And look at the range of consequences if you sexually abuse them:
• 40 to 175 years in prison (Larry Nassar),
• stepping down as leader of a political party (Patrick Brown),
• almost becoming a U.S. senator from Alabama (Judge Roy Moore),
• becoming U.S. president (Donny Trump).

“Allegedly…. Allegedly….” — Stephen Colbert

#149 Bad Cowboy on 01.26.18 at 7:38 am

#126 Nonplussed, sad having a kid in an environment that offers no future. I believe that wil be the legacy of the Trudeau govt. As things get worse for young people, 35 and below, in the jobless hyperinflated Trudeau economy, we see that increasing billions are being smoked by a generation of depression, after all , why do people self medicate? Smoking dope is no way to cope. If at all I recommend you get your family out of Canada. You only have one shot at doing the best for your kid. Now, I was lucky… the internet was just starting to work when my kid was entering Gr 5. The public schools were a failure, I could see that, my wife and are are both academics. I wrote a popular book on child raising through the school years but Im not hear to plug it. I was a pro trader, I know how to walk down the street. Certain people take issue with that and that’s cool, I’m here for me…and my family. I was and am in a good position to make my own choices. I paid cash for my first house, gave it to my wife as an anniversary present. I like thinking I’m broke((ish)…..puts lead in the pencil.

So, it’s 1992, the www is just on its infancy. I see the public schools suck…I’m already set for life with a model half my age, what to do? I had the biggest house on the block and had pissed off the neighbors by stealing it from a FSBO in a crunch. I had an epiphany, get out of Canada. Best thing I ever did. I sold the house, put everything in a storage locker, car and all. We fly to Fiji, classes begin on the beach. The Distance Ed program
In BC was excellent. I traded stocks and my teacher wife homeschooled the kid until it was time for university prep some years later. We chose a top notch private boarding school, best thing we ever did..the kids educated to the ting yangs dating a neuroscientist. So, trust yourself, get out from under the governments boot. There are better alternatives.

My st

#150 Another Deckchair on 01.26.18 at 7:42 am

That realtor.ca website.

Been going through it, seeing what’s for sale around me.

What is really neat are the “stats” nicely presented from Stats Canada’s data. it gets “chunked” into groups of about 150 or so homes. I live in a very desirable part of my city – not a “dive” area by any means.

Comparing three “chunks”, I’m amazed:
– the disparity of reported incomes;
– the median age of households varies considerably;
– the employment areas (what people do for work) between chunks;
– the low household gross incomes in some areas.

We have a little house, gross household income is about 40% more than in our “chunk”, and we live in one of the smallest houses on the street – the house is worth literally nothing, the land is what is the value.

Where do you fit in with your neighbours? I’d bet that many of you (if house owners) probably fit in with the over-salaried, under-housed group as well.

If you have time, it might be interesting for you to peek at the stats, if you can find a house for sale near you.

#151 TorontoBull on 01.26.18 at 7:47 am

@106
Istanbul?

#152 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.26.18 at 7:58 am

@#103 jas
“all the obvious is not visible to my partner. How the heck do I convince her that this is the last chance to get off this train of RE….”
+++++
Throw “momma” from the train?
Before she throws you out of the mortgaged house?

#153 millmech on 01.26.18 at 8:02 am

#131 our pal Val
You are on the right path of thinking, the US Fed has a strong possibility of going .5%, Trump wants rates normalized as fast as possible.

Just think about B20 with fixed rate mortgages being double digits, if that happens people will try like crazy to dump their investments. The only problem is the people who may think of buying will be qualifying at double digits.

A $500,[email protected]% is $2243 per month, a $500,000 @10% is $4543 per month, over doubles it, which in turn halves the amount that one qualifies for.

#154 Dudley Do-Right on 01.26.18 at 8:05 am

If you still have faith in the legal system, then you can go back to your Parcheesi game.
If you think only the rich or well connected get off, and the rest get skewered, then read on.
The standard op is being followed here. Blame the accusers, blame the messenger, justify the behavior, or concoct a conspiracy theory.
I don’t know what happened with Patrick Brown, but he appears to possess the morality of a Tse Tse fly. Not uncommon in the House of Commons (endemic in the USA), but we expect better in the Provinces.
If you want him as leader, call his constituency office and complain, but I don’t think any staff are available at the moment.
If there was absolutely no truth to the allegations, would they abandon ship so eagerly?
But then again, if they already had “suspicions” why did they stay aboard?

All speculation, but seriously why are we still shocked that those who seek power, so often abuse it.
I really do hope the PC Party can come up with a contender, but please check her background thoroughly.

#155 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.26.18 at 8:10 am

Ho hum.
Another day another Vancouver news article about a “developer” with “history”….. Charlie Ponzi couldnt dream this garbage up

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouver-condo-developer-fights-u-s-extradition-to-face-real-estate-fraud-scheme-allegations&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjOlO-x2fXYAhVfHGMKHaBcAzsQqQIILzAJ&usg=AOvVaw15pQUSz3ewI3atsx0cY26U

#156 under the radar on 01.26.18 at 8:25 am

#108 not to mention , tax free gain on primary residence , nor some of the more outrageous accrued appreciation many areas experienced , or the intangible benefits of not being told to move or living in a mold infested rental.

#157 Guy Moron on 01.26.18 at 8:46 am

I heard a substantiated rumour that Garth’s name is being bandied about for PC leader.
He was a Con, then a Lib, now he just does ad lib.
Would the Cons take him back to the dark side?
Or is the rule “once black, never back” ?

Guy

#158 Howard on 01.26.18 at 8:58 am

#154 Dudley Do-Right on 01.26.18 at 8:05 am

I don’t know what happened with Patrick Brown, but he appears to possess the morality of a Tse Tse fly.

————————————-

For making a pass at a woman?

I guess you are perfect and have never done anything that, in hindsight, was remotely objectionable?

I wasn’t pleased with Brown’s leadership anyway after he released that absurdly leftist platform. If he wasn’t prepared to fight the good fight for sensible centre-right policies then he shouldn’t have run for leader.

#159 IHCTD9 on 01.26.18 at 9:28 am

#108 InvestorsFriend on 01.25.18 at 10:41 pm
House versus Balanced Investments

#89 ImGonnaBeSick on 01.25.18 at 9:40 pm
Sorry to answer my own question, but I looked it up: avg house in GTA was 361,000 in 2008 and 735,000 in 2017. Simple XIRR gives us 7.36%/yr gain in housing… Better than inflation, surr. But not better than a balanced investment such as Garth suggests. Plus illiquid.

Now deduct the land transfer costs, sales commission and nine years of property tax. – Garth

***********************************
Sure, subtract those. But should we not add back nine years of rent not paid or something to account for the “dividend” associated with living in the house?
______

Yes you should, also add in 9 years principal interest, CMHC premiums, maintenance, insurance, upgrades, sewer and water on top of transfer fees, commissions, and taxes.

I’ve done the Honest Math on this several times, and you always need to pray for massive appreciation to get near a financial investment. That’s being honest about real world costs though, which many aren’t.

Much better to own both a paid for home and be able to save separately via financial investments.

#160 LivinLarge on 01.26.18 at 9:37 am

Dudley: “If there was absolutely no truth to the allegations, would they abandon ship so eagerly?” it’s not that simple. He didn’t “jump” ship at all. He first announced, around 9 pm that he would stay and fight but when caucus votes unanimously that they don’t want you as leader then it’s all over, you have been shoved off the ship. The leader serves only at the pleasure of the party or caucus.

It’s sad IMO that even unsubstantiated accusations can cause this sort of sudden implosion but that’s the reality of politics. “To whom much is given, much is expected in return” and with the election 100 days away it would have been mind boggling for the Cons to go into it with this kind of sword over their heads. It would/will take more than 100 days for this to be adequately investigated and then the Libs are still the government for another 4 years.

Hudack showed what one ill conceived sentence can do to a leader in an election even when they seemed to have a lock on it.

#161 Milly on 01.26.18 at 9:37 am

Everywhere around me I see people making millions through speculation and recklessness: real estate, crypto, weed stocks… It’s almost like there’s no reward in playing it safe and rational. Am I going crazy? I feel like these bubbles will never pop… there’s truly an endless supply of greater fools this time. It’s so hard to suppress the feeling of FOMO and play the slow game while everyone gets rich around you.

Bitcoin has lots half its value since Christmas. Do they tell you about that? – Garth

#162 Keith in Rio on 01.26.18 at 9:39 am

Bad Cowboy said…………”I had an epiphany, get out of Canada. Best thing I ever did.”

————————-

I’ll second that motion. You don’t need a 7 figure net worth to live comfortably in a different country that is warm, and has a beach which is open 24/7/365. A mid 5 figure amount will suffice……..and this means a heck lot of Canadians qualify to get outta dodge permanently.

But, Canadians are intellectual and emotional eunuchs, the dumbest people on the planet who live in a G7 country.

Life is not about swathes of granite, Miele appliances and condos that are comprised of a bathroom and 6 closet sized rooms.

#163 LivinLarge on 01.26.18 at 9:52 am

You are correct Howard. I was using hyperbole to be flippant and sarcastic. As I read Not Screwed’s post to be saying the maximum the basement cave would cost was $800 not the minimum it would. I likely wrote my jibe poorly but that’s where my mind was at the time. The last time the maximum rent for a basement apartment in Hog Town was $800 was a lonnng time ago.

#164 InvestorsFriend on 01.26.18 at 10:04 am

IHCDT9 Did the Honest Math

#159 IHCTD9 on 01.26.18 at 9:28 am quoted and said:
The quotes

Now deduct the land transfer costs, sales commission and nine years of property tax. – Garth

***********************************
Sure, subtract those. But should we not add back nine years of rent not paid or something to account for the “dividend” associated with living in the house?
______
********
IHDTC9 then said:

Yes you should, also add in 9 years principal interest, CMHC premiums, maintenance, insurance, upgrades, sewer and water on top of transfer fees, commissions, and taxes.

I’ve done the Honest Math on this several times, and you always need to pray for massive appreciation to get near a financial investment. That’s being honest about real world costs though, which many aren’t.

Much better to own both a paid for home and be able to save separately via financial investments.

***********************************
If IHDCT9 did the honest math, which I suspect he did, he is one of the very few.

Over the years on this site I have seen that people believe what they want to believe and by far most don’t do any math at all and most of the few that do the math cook the math to get the answer they want and blatantly leave out things that don’t support whatever answer they want. And oh yes, most get hostile at anyone arguing to the contrary even if someone brings honest math.

For most people, the math simply does not matter. Their minds were made up long ago. This applies to buy versus rent and RRSP versus margin account and active versus index trading, gold versus stocks, and many other things in life.

#165 LivinLarge on 01.26.18 at 10:07 am

“I wasn’t pleased with Brown’s leadership anyway after he released that absurdly leftist platform”…I admit that I actually had to Google him after the initial comments here. I really had no idea who the Con leader was. My bad but who leads an opposition party rarely rises to any level of importance for me. It should but, well, it doesn’t since I’m only in the province 7 months a year.

As for the “Promise” platform document, he didn’t write that and it was forced on him by the party according to a couple of party apparachics on TVO yesterday. They said it was the first time there has been a bottom up policy setting process rather than the leader driving the policy.

They also claimed there was a promise to resign if he broke any campaign promise. That sounds well and good to a 10th grade drop out but it’s so stupid to think keeping 100% of your promises is what gets you elected in the first place. It does however show a level of desperation to get elected that’s well beyond the pale.

#166 Ronaldo on 01.26.18 at 10:07 am

#134 morrey on 01.26.18 at 2:27 am

Dear Commenters to this pathetic blog.
Please write in sentences. Use a spellchecker or edit your submission before posting. Show respect for the english language. This applies to the majority of the contributors.

jeez.
—————————————————————–

You must be a teacher.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/11574196/new-forms-of-social-media-terms-which-parents-do-not-understand.html

#167 InvestorsFriend on 01.26.18 at 10:09 am

Life is Not About Houses?

#162 Keith in Rio on 01.26.18 at 9:39 am quoted and said:

Bad Cowboy said…………”I had an epiphany, get out of Canada. Best thing I ever did.”

————————-

I’ll second that motion. You don’t need a 7 figure net worth to live comfortably in a different country that is warm, and has a beach which is open 24/7/365. A mid 5 figure amount will suffice……..and this means a heck lot of Canadians qualify to get outta dodge permanently.

But, Canadians are intellectual and emotional eunuchs, the dumbest people on the planet who live in a G7 country.

Life is not about swathes of granite, Miele appliances and condos that are comprised of a bathroom and 6 closet sized rooms.

**********************************
Hear, hear! And life is also not about chipwood McMansions with room-sized closets.

#168 Stan Brooks on 01.26.18 at 10:17 am

Daily update:

1. Life is good:

Canada hopeful as U.S. hears NAFTA counter-proposals — and keeps listening

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/freeland-lighthizer-meet-davos-nafta-180112798.html

This is how negotiations are done:

In Davos, Switzerland, Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland was able to discuss Canada’s counter-proposals with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. He kept his poker face, but at least he didn’t say no, according to Canadian officials.

Is the whole NAFTA thingy just a scam to boost the stocks of the drama teacher who eventually out-smarts the hostile guy with the orange hair?

2. Life is good – Mr. T2 flashed his yellow ducks socks at Davos – the fassion talk of the day.

3. Life is good:

There is no inflation apparently:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/annual-pace-inflation-slows-cpi-133606335.html

1.9 % yearly inflation in January.
Magic considering minimum wage increases, carbon and higher CPP taxes, the prices at the pump, at the grocery store and the food-court.

4. The tale of the 3 currencies:

It seems USD depreciates against euro while USD rates increase. At the same time the wind-mill-hand-articulating Poloz indicated the end of rate hike of CAD. There are indications for CAD going .70-.75 against USD which could translate to 50 eurocents.

I have a bet with a friend of mine from Romania (the poor Eastern Europe country) on when take-home-after-tax-in-purchasing-power for a salary there would surpass Canada.

I bet on 2019, he on 2021.
(Romania’s economy grows in appreciating euro at 10 %+ yearly).

Apparently that is already the case for high tech workers there, with Bucharest becoming a hub for high tech companies with headquarter for Microsoft there bigger than the Mississauga office and cost of living much less than the world class city Toronto.

#169 IHCTD9 on 01.26.18 at 10:36 am

#161 Milly on 01.26.18 at 9:37 am
Everywhere around me I see people making millions through speculation and recklessness: real estate, crypto, weed stocks… It’s almost like there’s no reward in playing it safe and rational. Am I going crazy? I feel like these bubbles will never pop… there’s truly an endless supply of greater fools this time. It’s so hard to suppress the feeling of FOMO and play the slow game while everyone gets rich around you.
___________________________________

Get control of your emotions. Who cares what the talk is. Make a safe realistic plan for yourself and stick to it. Not everything is as it looks, the vast majority of urban ballers are faking it. Extend and pretend can go on for years. You know what Buffet said about the tide going out.

I’ve been at it for long enough to have already seen a couple bare asses after the tide went out on some ex-coworkers. One guy married a woman with two kids and is now totally broke just paying normal household bills along with the debt pile. Another guy resorted to selling the services of his wife’s womb to knock down the pile he built up.

These folks made sure you knew how “well off” they were back then – and in every way possible. They lived for it.

He who laughs last, laughs best. Make a plan and look the other way while plugging your ears if you have to.

#170 we are all crypto millionaires on 01.26.18 at 10:39 am

BITCONNNNNNNEEEECCCTTTTT

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhL2OWXZ26s

#171 Damifino on 01.26.18 at 10:48 am

#161 Milly

Everywhere around me I see people making millions through speculation and recklessness
—————————

But are they happy?

#172 Smoking Man on 01.26.18 at 10:49 am

#134 morrey on 01.26.18 at 2:27 am
Dear Commenters to this pathetic blog.
Please write in sentences. Use a spellchecker or edit your submission before posting. Show respect for the english language. This applies to the majority of the contributors.

jeez.
…….

Get a life. Its about the meaning not the presentation.

#173 Midnights on 01.26.18 at 10:52 am

Rental rates for Toronto condominiums continue to surge

https://m.whichmortgage.ca/article/rental-rates-for-toronto-condominiums-continue-to-surge-236770.aspx

#174 Ian on 01.26.18 at 10:57 am

Guys…when housing declines, rents decline.

I had a search done by a realtor last week in a certain area of the GTA, and it is crystal clear that many of the speckers are now looking to get any amount of cash flow they can from all the addresses they bought. Even if it means -700 cash flow per month.

So many empty properties collecting only snow, property taxes, and declining equity value.

Of course, according to our favourite Hudak, the problem is ‘not enough supply.’

#175 IHCTD9 on 01.26.18 at 11:01 am

#158 Howard on 01.26.18 at 8:58 am
#154 Dudley Do-Right on 01.26.18 at 8:05 am

I don’t know what happened with Patrick Brown, but he appears to possess the morality of a Tse Tse fly.

————————————-

For making a pass at a woman?

I guess you are perfect and have never done anything that, in hindsight, was remotely objectionable?

I wasn’t pleased with Brown’s leadership anyway after he released that absurdly leftist platform. If he wasn’t prepared to fight the good fight for sensible centre-right policies then he shouldn’t have run for leader.
____________________________________

Brown, as a politician should not have been getting teens drunk and brining them home.

However, other than being a creepy douche, it does not appear he broke the law. No complaints have been made to the Police, no investigation is under way, no charges laid, and no trial date set.

I encourage these two anonymous Women to quickly file a formal complaint to Police without delay.

IMHO, if there is no formal complaint made – why they hell did they go public with their story?

Anyone need help with this?

#176 Marc the Litigator on 01.26.18 at 11:03 am

#56 Ardy on 01.25.18 at 7:55 pm
Mr. T, your blog was mentioned by an Andrew on CP24’s Hot Property. Al called you a hack and a non-expert in RE.

So funny.

Coming from Al, I shall covet this honour forever. He knows whereof he speaks. – Garth

********************************************

Long-time lurker (13 months or so) – first time poster.

I’ll start off by saying thanks to GT for all the sage advice. My wife and I are considered “millennials” (I think…) both making our way in high paid professions and working on building our wealth. We both had extreme reservations purchasing property in the GTA (despite being able to marginally afford it) prior to finding this blog and have found confirmation of a lot of our positions re Real Estate and why we choose to stay away from it (I believe that’s called confirmation bias)!

This is despite facing the very real pressure from family, friends, etc… that we should leverage ourselves to the hilt to get that slanty-semi. We’ve resisted and continue to do so happily as our rent is less than half the cost of a mortgage on our current place and we’ve been diligently squirreling away the majority of our incomes into a balanced and diversified portfolio.

In any event, imagine my excitement last night when I heard “Andrew” reference GT and this sorry Blog on CP24’s advertorial Hot Property. I knew it was going to be good but watching the reactions of the “esteemed” panel was priceless. You could almost see Al’s eye start to twitch and he immediately went on the defensive saying how much money he’s “saved”/“earned” for people over the years and “how statistics can be manipulated to show whatever you want…” I imagine the irony was lost on many sheeple.

I couldn’t help admiring “Andrew’s” shrewdness in overwhelming Bell Media’s call screeners – so “Andrew” if you’re reading this kudos to you!

#177 Ian on 01.26.18 at 11:03 am

Really, really hoping Vic Fideli is the next PC Leader.

Will we get to vote on it as members? Appears not. Big time crunch now..

#178 Triplenet on 01.26.18 at 11:22 am

#129 Adam
A real estate board will record a a “sale” when all conditions precedent have been satisfied (or waived).
That simple.

But it has not closed. – Garth

#179 Ian on 01.26.18 at 11:22 am

There’s already a major backlash from women regarding MeToo. Many think this has gone too far.

Catherine Deneuve and 102 other women signed an open letter in France about this:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42630108

#180 LivinLarge on 01.26.18 at 11:26 am

“Dear Commenters to this pathetic blog.
Please write in sentences. Use a spellchecker or edit your submission before posting. Show respect for the english language. This applies to the majority of the contributors.”…obviously you read or post here from a laptop or desktop PC. Try doing all you ask from a mobile device, even an iPad as I do. No real spell check like you know it on an iPad and scrolling up in the small visible window of what you just typed is brutal, only about 7 lines can be seen.

I am horrified by what I see when I hit “submit” but then it’s too late to make changes (as far as I am aware at least).

#181 LivinLarge on 01.26.18 at 11:41 am

And this: “Much better to own both a paid for home and be able to save separately via financial investments.”….is a true formula for long term financial security. Not fast, not flashy and barely fun unless you’re OCD but if you buy a house preferably for no more than appraised value, live in that house until paid off and resist the urge to load up on secured term debt, and use a simple plan to accellerate your principal paydown period then you can be mortgage free in about 15 years especially if you keep to the age old rule of mortgage PI being no more than 25% of gross income.

Not certain that this plan is realistic if living in the Big Smoke but I have never lived in Hog Town. It worked for me in SWO. The entire concept comes with the requirement of understand the math of finance AND serious discipline when all around you are living well beyond their realistic means.

#182 Stan Brooks on 01.26.18 at 11:46 am

A new chapter in the mental institution:

Suddenly even T2 starts looking good:

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/vote-believe-people-innocent-proven-guilty-024740928.html

Note: This is coming from a lawyer!

“If you are asking me when I was a lawyer in a legal lens, there is a discussion or presumption of innocence — but that is strictly about the procedures in court,” Singh said Thursday, as reported by Huffington Post Canada.

“When it comes to creating a just society, we need to look at the reality that we have to believe survivors if we want to tackle violence against women, if we want to shift a culture that for too long women have been silent about the ongoing violence that they experienced in their lives,” he added.

OMG.

#183 Stan Brooks on 01.26.18 at 11:48 am

I suddenly got orgasmic schadenfreude listening to the NDP guy.

It gets better by the day folks!
Enjoy!

#184 Ian on 01.26.18 at 11:58 am

Wow. Smoky will not like this that just hit the wires…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-york-new-jersey-and-connecticut-to-sue-federal-government-over-state-and-local-taxes-2018-01-26?mod=bnbh

#185 TnT on 01.26.18 at 11:59 am

Canada’s Hidden Unfunded Public Sector Pension Liabilities

https://www.cfib-fcei.ca/en/research/canadas-hidden-unfunded-public-sector-pension-liabilities

Sears is just the first pension failure of many to come.

You CAN’T solely rely on your pension anymore.

Start investing people!

#186 InvestorsFriend on 01.26.18 at 12:16 pm

Is the Official Inflation number correct

Many view official CPI as incorrect.

Stan Brooks questioned the number at 168 and said:

1.9 % yearly inflation in January.
Magic considering minimum wage increases, carbon and higher CPP taxes, the prices at the pump, at the grocery store and the food-court.

**********************************
Not that it will change anyone’s mind but Statistics Canada provides tons of detail behind their numbers. Those who doubt the numbers can go into the CANSIM tables and explore the breakdown to housing, gasoline and many other things.

The headline release detail dealt with gasoline (up 12.2%) and housing and many other things and said:

“Consumer prices for transportation rose 4.9% on a year-over-year basis in December, following a 5.9% increase in November. The movement in transportation prices was led by gasoline, which rose 12.2% year over year in December, after increasing 19.6% the previous month. The purchase of passenger vehicles index increased 3.7% in the 12-month period ending in December.

The shelter index grew 1.4% on a year-over-year basis in December, after increasing 1.2% in November. The natural gas index contributed to the gain in this major component, up 6.2% in December following a 3.1% increase in November.

Consumers paid 2.0% more for food in December compared with the same month the previous year. Food purchased from stores was up 1.5% in the 12 months to December. On a year-over-year basis, higher prices for fresh vegetables (+6.9%) contributed the most to the increase. Prices for food purchased from restaurants rose 2.9% year over year in December.

Household operations, furnishings and equipment costs fell 0.3% on a year-over-year basis in December, after increasing 0.9% in November. This decline was largely due to price decreases in telephone services, down 5.0% year over year in December.”

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/180126/dq180126a-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan

But rather than look at facts it is far easier for people to repeat the urban legend that the official number ignores gasoline and housing. I mean if the facts are inconvenient, they can simply be labeled manipulated or the newly popular FAKE, right?

#187 ben on 01.26.18 at 12:17 pm

#170 thanks for the bitconnect link, that is insane.

#188 Stan Brooks on 01.26.18 at 12:20 pm

#185 InvestorsFriend on 01.26.18 at 12:16 pm

Are you for serious?

Inflation of 1.9 % yearly? Really?

#189 maxx on 01.26.18 at 12:20 pm

#12 Rents Skyrocketing on 01.25.18 at 5:25 pm

Shame about your predicament…..

#190 Howard on 01.26.18 at 12:21 pm

#178 Ian on 01.26.18 at 11:22 am
There’s already a major backlash from women regarding MeToo. Many think this has gone too far.

Catherine Deneuve and 102 other women signed an open letter in France about this:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42630108

————————————–

MeToo never really caught on in France anyway.

Women here (I live in Paris) actually act like adults and do not go into hysterical fits every time a man makes a pass at them. If not interested they simply say no. And when it comes to flirting French women can give as good as they can get on that score.

#191 A J on 01.26.18 at 12:25 pm

Nothing happens in a vacuum. If you’re a decent human being, you don’t need to sweat.

http://nationalpost.com/news/canada/ontario-politician-says-she-flagged-brown-rumours-to-party-weeks-ago

#192 Howard on 01.26.18 at 12:28 pm

#174 IHCTD9 on 01.26.18 at 11:01 am
#158 Howard on 01.26.18 at 8:58 am
#154 Dudley Do-Right on 01.26.18 at 8:05 am

I don’t know what happened with Patrick Brown, but he appears to possess the morality of a Tse Tse fly.

————————————-

For making a pass at a woman?

I guess you are perfect and have never done anything that, in hindsight, was remotely objectionable?

I wasn’t pleased with Brown’s leadership anyway after he released that absurdly leftist platform. If he wasn’t prepared to fight the good fight for sensible centre-right policies then he shouldn’t have run for leader.
____________________________________

Brown, as a politician should not have been getting teens drunk and brining them home.

However, other than being a creepy douche, it does not appear he broke the law. No complaints have been made to the Police, no investigation is under way, no charges laid, and no trial date set.

I encourage these two anonymous Women to quickly file a formal complaint to Police without delay.

IMHO, if there is no formal complaint made – why they hell did they go public with their story?

Anyone need help with this?

—————————-

But there’s no evidence that he was “getting then drunk”. Well technically there’s no evidence for any of it but if we believe that what these women are saying is broadly true, the nefarious “getting them drunk” bit would be the most damning. Except that he met girl #1 in a bar who, by her own admission was already drunk. Girl #2 was drinking along with everyone else at a party at Brown’s house. The accusation that he was plotting all along to get her plastered in order to have his way with her is a slanted attempt to read his mind and nothing more.

#193 Damifino on 01.26.18 at 12:37 pm

#172 Smoking Man
Get a life. Its about the meaning not the presentation.
———————————-

I usually ignore you, but… don’t be so bloody lazy.

It’s about both.

#194 For those about to flop... on 01.26.18 at 12:41 pm

Adam the realtor,can you show us how much this house in Burnaby went for two weeks ago?

Thanks in advance…

M43BC

4582 Sunland Place, Burnaby, BC, V5J 3A4 paid 1.3
2016-10-15 : $1,399,000
2017-01-11 : $1,299,000
2017-02-02 : $1,499,000
2017-05-08 : $1,480,000
2017-06-07 : $1,380,000
2017-11-13 : $1,449,000
2017-11-17 : $1,199,000

#195 Triplenet on 01.26.18 at 12:45 pm

No, it proceeds to completion.
A legally enforceable contract.
That simple.

#196 n1tro on 01.26.18 at 12:52 pm

#144 IHCTD9 on 01.26.18 at 7:21 am

Yep. Pretty scary stuff. Due process tossed aside along with the castration of any subsequent innocent verdict. Brown is done like Dinner thanks to a couple accusations from 2 anonymous, faceless Women. It’s a baaad time to be Male in Canada.
——————–
For the sake of all men, if Patrick is innocent, I hope he sues the crap out of these 2 ladies for defamation of character. Im dissapointed Jian Ghomeshi didnt.

#197 IHCTD9 on 01.26.18 at 12:53 pm

#178 Ian on 01.26.18 at 11:22 am

There’s already a major backlash from women regarding MeToo. Many think this has gone too far.

Catherine Deneuve and 102 other women signed an open letter in France about this:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42630108
_____________________________________

Yep, Look at the crap being slung at Margaret Atwood (who’s accomplishments would be what many Women aspire to), just because she has reservations regarding the course of “me-too”.

One thing is for damn sure, all efforts to categorize Browns actions as sexual assault (per the Star), misconduct (per cbc), violence (per folks on the net) – all work to trivialize the actual real violent acts that some Women have suffered.

#198 For those about to flop... on 01.26.18 at 1:08 pm

I talked yesterday about how prices have been coming down in my hood.

These guys just put this one back up with a major haircut.

If the house is neat and tidy at the front and sides ,but a mess at the back ,it’s a mullet…

M43BC

5040 Elgin st,Vancouver

Jul 11:$2,288,000
Jan 25: $1,599,000
Change: – 689000.00 -30%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/5040-elgin-street

#199 DON on 01.26.18 at 1:13 pm

#172 Smoking Man on 01.26.18 at 10:49 am

#134 morrey on 01.26.18 at 2:27 am
Dear Commenters to this pathetic blog.
Please write in sentences. Use a spellchecker or edit your submission before posting. Show respect for the english language. This applies to the majority of the contributors.

jeez.
…….

Get a life. Its about the meaning not the presentation.
***************************

Exactly…”about the meaning”. For far too long now we have succumbed to presentation. Anyone in a suit must know what they are talking about (as long as they are wearing a nice suit). We treat our politicians the same.

And then we have the JONES-ES. Too many people looking the part at work and at home. But behind closed doors things are quite the opposite.

Remember that movie Idiocracy and the cycle of life, economics, politics…all cycles (stupidity, greed, incompetence, corruption all cycles as well). And we are bound to repeat. But I think we gradually learn, don’t we?

#200 IHCTD9 on 01.26.18 at 1:20 pm

#191 Howard on 01.26.18 at 12:28 pm

But there’s no evidence that he was “getting then drunk”. Well technically there’s no evidence for any of it but if we believe that what these women are saying is broadly true, the nefarious “getting them drunk” bit would be the most damning. Except that he met girl #1 in a bar who, by her own admission was already drunk. Girl #2 was drinking along with everyone else at a party at Brown’s house. The accusation that he was plotting all along to get her plastered in order to have his way with her is a slanted attempt to read his mind and nothing more.

_____________________________________

I agree, nothing illegal, he did not force alcohol down their throats, and the selfies pics the Star has up (taken by one of the Women) appears to show everything was just fine – up until Mr. Brown decided to make some moves. I just don’t think a guy his age should be philandering with teens – bad optics when you are a public figure. Bad all around actually.

Again, if these Women do not file a complaint with the POLICE, and no charges are laid – I’m just not going to believe there was anything more than douchebaggery going on. Plus – that the whole thing was politically motivated/exploited.

#201 SoggyShorts on 01.26.18 at 1:25 pm

#146 Howard on 01.26.18 at 7:29 am

Yes, we all know that europe and asia make up the eurasian continent.
You’re still missing the point:
Trying to name a culture by using a world map divided along political boundaries is often useless.
The larger the geographical area, and the more cultures it contains, the more useless it is.
If “Asian” were to be used to refer to ALL people living on the Asian continent, it would almost never make sense as there are too many cultures on it.
You might as well say “earthlings”

#202 IHCTD9 on 01.26.18 at 1:29 pm

#195 n1tro on 01.26.18 at 12:52 pm
#144 IHCTD9 on 01.26.18 at 7:21 am

Yep. Pretty scary stuff. Due process tossed aside along with the castration of any subsequent innocent verdict. Brown is done like Dinner thanks to a couple accusations from 2 anonymous, faceless Women. It’s a baaad time to be Male in Canada.
——————–
For the sake of all men, if Patrick is innocent, I hope he sues the crap out of these 2 ladies for defamation of character. Im dissapointed Jian Ghomeshi didnt.
__________________________________

Probably won’t happen., but much deserved.

I’m hoping that between the worlds more reasonable Women, the undermining of real sex crime created by me-too, and the resulting apathy/desensitization towards sex crimes against Women – will eventually put on the brakes.

Remember a few years back how everyone hated Cops because shootings were radicalized and sensationalized in the media? Not a peep now. Anyone remember Forcillo/Yatim? All quiet, no one is outraged anymore.

If me-too keeps going like it is, it’ll suffer the same degradation in the Public eye.

#203 DON on 01.26.18 at 1:35 pm

#12 Rents Skyrocketing on 01.25.18 at 5:25 pm

Rents will soon swell with the new B20 rules as those who do not have credit to buy will place pressure on existing rental stock – because everyone needs shelter. There will be a lot more competition in hot markets with already near zero vacancy rates.

Sure, there will be some more rental houses on the market from speculators cracking under the pressure, but local rental demand will absorb them as there will be more ‘rejected B20 potential buyers’ than houses on the market from speculators. This adds another pressure on top of the near 0% vacancy rates in major cities.

The irony is that due to more competition for scarce rentals, renters will soon be paying more than the mortgage/insurance of owners who bought their houses under the old rules and cheaper mortgages…

*******************

More likely scenario:

If I can’t buy your house (B20 etc). Sooner or later you will have to sell, rent it out or let it depreciate from peal value. Potential buyers will turn into potential renters and speckers (especially over leveraged ones) will be forced to sell or rent.

Logic is hard?

FFS

#204 IHCTD9 on 01.26.18 at 1:38 pm

Racialized not radicalized

#205 MaxtheTax on 01.26.18 at 1:57 pm

Congrats Garth,
Looks like your die-hard blog efforts are paying off:

CBC: “Why young people who can afford it are choosing not to buy homes in Calgary”

#206 I’m stupid on 01.26.18 at 1:58 pm

#metoo is bullshit it’s gone too far. It’s one thing if a woman was sexually assaulted or touched in an inappropriate way, it’s another thing if a man makes a comment that’s sexual in nature. If men stop giving women attention they’ll complain too. #whynotme

#207 JohnnyBoy on 01.26.18 at 1:59 pm

#36 Smoking Man on 01.25.18 at 6:55 pm

During a news conference to wrap up his trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trudeau was asked about allegations that women felt fearful about getting in the same elevator with Hehr at the Alberta Legislature, where he was a member from 2008 to 2015, and that Hehr had made unwanted sexually suggestive comments.

………………………………..…..
So that’s Canada now, crack a joke on the elevator and lose your job. Guilty till you prove otherwise.

If a woman is in a foul mood and she dont like you, she can destroy your life. That’s were Canada is heading. That’s why I no longer live there. Saw it coming.
No trial, straight to the dog house.
_____________________________________
Bullshit you couldn’t see your own nose you alcoholic fool. The real reason that you do not live in Canada is because you were unemployed, lost your home and needed a job. You got lucky dickhead and got a TN to work in Liberal California. So suck it up buttercup your a lefty liberal in Cali now. I bet a case of beer your ass will be cleaned out there and you will be slogging back to the good old Great White North soon. See you on the hockey rink buttercup! BTW don’t where a cup when you come to the rink cause when you come back here form Cali you wont need one!

#208 Newcomer on 01.26.18 at 2:29 pm

I can put up with typos in the comments. (I certainly make enough myself.) But what shocks me to my core is that three people replied to #134 morrey without pointing out that he has three of the errors he is complaining about in his own post.

Come on folks, show a little more cynicism. (And, Morrey, get the Grammarly plugin. It’s free, and lets you pontificate like a boss.)

#209 Ian on 01.26.18 at 2:29 pm

Wow the Shermans were murdered! Crazy!! Professional hit!

Mossad theory back on the table??

#210 ball game over on 01.26.18 at 2:50 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/bcs-foreign-buyertax-has-some-buyers-looking-for-aloophole/article36520663/

gone from 16% foreign buyers to about 4%

its over.

chinese buying out Seattle now…

#211 Howard on 01.26.18 at 2:51 pm

#208 Ian on 01.26.18 at 2:29 pm
Wow the Shermans were murdered! Crazy!! Professional hit!

Mossad theory back on the table??

—————————-

Why? Aside from the fact they were Jewish, what are their ties to Israel?

#212 LivinLarge on 01.26.18 at 2:56 pm

“Rents will soon swell with the new B20 rules as those who do not have credit to buy will place pressure on rental stock”…really???? From where is this tide of new renters who can’t purchase coming from? Are they currently homeless?

#213 Smoking Man on 01.26.18 at 3:02 pm

DELETED

#214 Stone on 01.26.18 at 3:06 pm

#170 we are all crypto millionaires on 01.26.18 at 10:39 am
BITCONNNNNNNEEEECCCTTTTT

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhL2OWXZ26s

——-

Wow! My ears are still ringing.

#215 conan on 01.26.18 at 3:15 pm

#178 Ian on 01.26.18 at 11:22 am

I agree with the many women who think that taking away a guy’s privilege to “chat up women” is way over the top.

If we all lived by the simple principle of:

“Don’t make people feel uncomfortable!”

The World would be a better place.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gvNderLNik

#216 Penny Henny on 01.26.18 at 3:52 pm

#187 Stan Brooks on 01.26.18 at 12:20 pm
#185 InvestorsFriend on 01.26.18 at 12:16 pm

Are you for serious?

Inflation of 1.9 % yearly? Really?
////////////////////

How are you to know Stan. You don’t even live here.

#217 IHCTD9 on 01.26.18 at 4:17 pm

#180 LivinLarge on 01.26.18 at 11:41 am
And this: “Much better to own both a paid for home and be able to save separately via financial investments.”….is a true formula for long term financial security. Not fast, not flashy and barely fun unless you’re OCD but if you buy a house preferably for no more than appraised value, live in that house until paid off and resist the urge to load up on secured term debt, and use a simple plan to accellerate your principal paydown period then you can be mortgage free in about 15 years especially if you keep to the age old rule of mortgage PI being no more than 25% of gross income.

Not certain that this plan is realistic if living in the Big Smoke but I have never lived in Hog Town. It worked for me in SWO. The entire concept comes with the requirement of understand the math of finance AND serious discipline when all around you are living well beyond their realistic means.
————

When I think about our household finances, our success boils down to 3 things:

1. INCOME: Dual incomes, steady employment, decent earnings for both

2. SHELTER: Low cost house, low cost lifestyle

3. INVESTING: Started early, never missed a monthly deposit, increased value of deposits over time.

Because we’re not rich, our low cost house and low cost lifestyle were pivotal in us being able to invest.

The fact that we started mid 20’s is also pivotal. We do not have the financial horsepower to accumulate 7 figures in 20-30 years, but thanks to our 40 year horizon, it is fairly well assured.

Indeed it would be tough if not impossible to do in the gta with house prices and student debt these days.

#218 wallflower on 01.26.18 at 4:20 pm

#126 Nonplused on 01.26.18 at 1:27 am

Is that a single malt?

#219 Stan Brooks on 01.26.18 at 4:51 pm

#215 Penny Henny on 01.26.18 at 3:52 pm
#187 Stan Brooks on 01.26.18 at 12:20 pm
#185 InvestorsFriend on 01.26.18 at 12:16 pm

Are you for serious?

Inflation of 1.9 % yearly? Really?
////////////////////

How are you to know Stan. You don’t even live here.

=====================

Communicating with people there?
Visiting from time to time?
Reading your mind?
Tracking prices on Internet?

#220 LivinLarge on 01.26.18 at 4:57 pm

Well done 1HCT. That is a road map for financial security that has worked pretty much since the invention of coin.

I might dispute your underestimation of you ability to create a 7 figure nest egg in 20-30 years. Just before looking in here again I was comparing what BMO has done since 1991 and it really is surprising just what our chartered banks have done over that period. Not even reinvesting the dividends, 15,000 shares of BMO became 30,000 shares in 93 and 60,000 in 2001 with splits. Right now those 60K are paying over $3.50 per year in dividends andtrading $102-104 right now. This same growth pattern could have been acheived on less than 15,000 shares if the divs had been dripped .

Not suggesting you or anyone buy BMO, just that with a long time horizon the banks have an incredible history of splitting and paying their dividend regardless what of the prevailing market…and they seem to always grow their divs better than inflationary over a 4-5 year period.

#221 Gravy Train on 01.26.18 at 6:06 pm

#126 Nonplused on 01.26.18 at 1:27 am
“So all ‘paradoxes’ involving time travel really aren’t paradoxes at all.”

Are you a physicist? No? And yet you’re pontificating on physics, a subject you know nothing about.

Here, read up on the twin paradox, time dilation, special and general relativity, and so on. (The world is far more amazing than you can possibly imagine.)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_paradox
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_dilation
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_time_dilation
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_relativity
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_relativity
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_relativity
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_relativity

#222 RyYYZ on 01.26.18 at 6:32 pm

#136 SoggyShorts on 01.26.18 at 3:10 am

Geologically, Europe and Asia are all one continent, anyway. Calling them two continents is really mostly a social/political distinction. Look at a map, do you see two separate landmasses?

#223 Morrey on 01.26.18 at 7:09 pm

It’s known as the Peninsula of Europe — Europa
“Europe is sometimes called a “peninsula of peninsulas”, to draw attention to the fact that Europe is a relatively small, elongated appendage to Asia, and that a large part of Europe is made up of peninsulas.”

#224 Daniel on 01.26.18 at 7:21 pm

You know the market is pooched when you start receiving emails like the one I just got from team lamba about their open houses. I went to see one of their properties last winter and never received an email till now for the first time trying to promote a dead market.

#225 Morrey on 01.26.18 at 7:21 pm

Get a life. Its about the meaning not the presentation.
*******************************************
dude like U rock man git down U reel man

#226 jess on 01.26.18 at 7:37 pm

round 1
The U.S. International Trade Commission voted unanimously Friday that Boeing (BA)was not harmed by Bombardier and its all-new C Series jet.

The vote effectively shelves two tariffs, totaling nearly 300%, that the U.S. Commerce Department wanted to impose on Bombardier.

#227 Ian on 01.27.18 at 8:25 am

Planned homes in a new Whitby subdivision are on sale for up to $90,000 less than similar homes in the same development were a year ago. https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/homeandproperty/what-did-the-neighbours-pay-whitby-homebuyers-just-found-out-the-answer-a-lot-less/ar-AAv6ij6?ocid=spartandhp
Reply

#228 ALFRED E. NEUMAN on 01.27.18 at 8:58 am

I vote “yes” but with the cautionary that you’ll be sending him/her back to isolation again and again, Garth.

For altho SCM is no doubt very (book) smart, she/he writes like is always looking to pick a fight.

Is the wannabe ‘Sean Avery’ of this blog, while SM serves well as our beloved ‘Hunter Thompson’.

But every once in a while, you have to turn and say:
“Wouldja just shaddup?”