Flip city

Vancouver is so pooched. There are just two things locals should expect. Either houses cost $5 million each (at least) in a few years and the market seizes up – since nobody could buy and owners would fear selling – or it crashes and burns.

What Comrade John Horgan and his provincial government do in next month’s budget will set the scene. If the foreign tax is escalated or a spec tax brought in (both are likely), then combined with higher mortgage rates, the stress test and Van’s empty-head empty-houses levy, the market cannot survive.

Things are out of control. Speculation’s rampant once again. The latest Demographic ranking putting VYR just behind Hong Kong and Sydney is not so much a surprise as the way it got there. No city ever (according to the Frontier Centre for Public Policy) has turned into a morass of real estate horniness and new-buyer despair as fast as Vancouver. Little more than a decade ago the average house cost five times what the average family earned. Today that multiple is 12.6. To save a downpayment now takes a quarter century. Personal savings rates have been obliterated and, to add insult to injury, it snowed in November.

Prices are rising again, at about 400% the pace of wage gains. Those who think the premier can stop the escalation without collapsing the market aren’t paying attention. Hope, greed, expectation and the gaming instinct are in control. Local Mainland real estate is a futures market. People don’t care what anything costs, since it’ll surely be more valuable later. This is classic sentiment which precedes a reckoning.

By the way, that 12.6 number in Van compares with about 4 in Montreal, Calgary or Ottawa. In Atlantic Canada, it’s closer to 2. It’s not that real estate is inherently more valuable in one city than another, just that people living in places with lower numbers aren’t engaged in wild, buy-at-any-price activity. Blaming foreigner buyers is fashionable, of course, but the market is dominated by citizen-beavers who are overwhelmingly responsible for setting prices. So the only way to stop the frenzy is to turn market sentiment negative. To wit, replacing the lust for profits with a fear of losses.

Currently the Van market is being driven by the newbies. In the last year the price of a detached home climbed, on average, 7.9%. The price of condos, in comparison, exploded 26%. And look at the current sales-to-listings ratio. Incredible. For detacheds it’s a weak 14.4%, but for condos a robust 59.6%. The kids have been borrowing, and spending, as no generation before them. Unrepayable, elephantine, Trumpian debt is now the norm, and FOMO is back with a vengeance.

Lost on most people is the absurdity of their actions.

They are buying real estate when it has never cost more, and at rates destined to rise, using the kind of leverage which would make a stock investor hurl. Worse, these are typically first investments – ‘properties’ without any real property being snapped up by folks whose financial experience amounts to running a chequing account.

If Horgan is successful, dropping the market a modest amount – say, 25% – then tens of thousands of these kids are roadkill. Their mortgages will exceed the value of their concrete boxes. Selling will be impossible unless they can show up at closing with a cheque for the difference. Walking is a poor option, since condo owners are legally responsible for paying the lender back, complete with costs, and can only wriggle away through bankruptcy. In that case kiss your credit adios.

If sentiment were to turn negative amid such moister hardship, with sales and prices sharply reduced, what next? Would a new crop of potential buyers, shunted to the sidelines by crazed prices, swoop in an vultch listings? Hardly. The opposite. People are driven to buy when prices rise. When values plunge, they recoil. We’re herd animals, consistently and dependently doing those things in our own worst interests. Buy high, sell low. Covet what’s dear. Shun losers. If you need definitive proof, look at Bitcoin.

US housing analyst Josh Steiner had an interesting report on real estate, whacked-out buyers and Vancouver the other day. Canada’s ripe for a crash, he says.

“Imagine this: Rising interest rates and reduced foreign capital flows combine to push housing prices down in places like Vancouver. Leveraged players who own speculative homes start to liquidate their properties, pushing prices down further. Banks find themselves holding properties they neither need nor want. The dominoes begin to topple.”

And, wisely, he adds:

“Houses are illiquid because transactions occur infrequently and each property is unique. They aren’t like shares of stock. You can look at tax valuations and appraisals, but those are estimates. You can’t really know a house’s value until you try to sell it. Flying blind at 20X leverage is not the ideal way to learn about investing, but that’s how many Americans do it.”

Yup, and YVRers do it better. No American city, ever – even in the frothiest moments of the US housing crash that almost ate the world – saw average house prices rise to 12.7 times what people earned. Thus we can expect the trip back down to be, ah, memorable.

Over to you, Johnnie.

262 comments ↓

#1 Chico on 01.23.18 at 5:26 pm

I really that guy with the handle “banned.” He has a lot of interesting things to say. Brief, to the point, doesn’t waste a lot of words.

#2 Survival on 01.23.18 at 5:28 pm

…the market cannot survive.

Just like the market for a Bitcoin > $1,- cannot survive?

How could a coin based on thin-air, possible be worth more than a US dollar? Let alone $1000.- or $10,000.-

And yet…

#3 Arun on 01.23.18 at 5:28 pm

Hello first from down under

#4 Linda on 01.23.18 at 5:31 pm

I’m not sure those who are leveraging have any expectations that their actions will have negative financial consequences. They see mortgages as ‘good’ debt & most have likely never balanced a cheque book in their lives – that is for old fogies, not the tap/swipe & go crowd of today.

I’d imagine that if the market crashes as predicted, most will simply declare bankruptcy & walk. A seven year wait for a credit reset is hardly a deterrent to those who see no reason why they can’t live the lifestyles of the rich & famous while they are young enough to enjoy it.

#5 calgaryguy on 01.23.18 at 5:33 pm

Garth, If you had a gun to your head and had to choose between a $600k Vancouver Condo or $600k of diversified crypto currencies, what do you do?

Look for a knife. – Garth

#6 Stan Brooks on 01.23.18 at 5:34 pm

Increase of credit/prices should not surpass wage increases and wage increases (tell that the provincial premiers) should not surpass productivity increase.

Ray Dalio.

Productivity increase in Vancouver?

To justify 8-10 fold increase in house prices?

————————————

As for the madness I have a feeling we have a lot more to see.

With NAFTA crumbling and the currency (it is called the loonie for a reason) melting, I can smell interest only 50 years loans and 6-8 million houses in Vancouver.

It is a mental institution folks, it is a mental institution and the personnel and the doctors, the crazies are in charge.

#7 Johnny on 01.23.18 at 5:36 pm

Renting at $950 per month sharing a home with a bunch of dirty, sensitive and socially awkward millennials while approaching mid 30s didn’t feel so bad in the 5 minutes reading this :/

#8 LivinLarge on 01.23.18 at 5:37 pm

An open question but Fearless Leader is the only one here with direct hands on experience at the helm of our state revenue collection secret service so I’m hoping you will proffer an opinion.

Not that I am contemplating making any enormous residence change but is there any country in the developed world that currently has a tax system that is substantially better for residents than Canada’s?

When top marginal rates creep over 50% it would be irresponsible of me not to at least ask when I am no longer working and my money has no particular nationalistic leaning. It’s happy to earn ‘£, € or $ or just about anything for that matter.

#9 Kamloops realtor on 01.23.18 at 5:38 pm

Kamloops real estate market is on fire!!

#10 Stan Brooks on 01.23.18 at 5:38 pm

More brainwashing for the stupid sheeple.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/canada-ranks-second-best-country-195755348.html

Making you feel special as to pay the premium they require for you to live in the frozen north.

Mental facility.

#11 OttawaMike on 01.23.18 at 5:38 pm

I just thought of something: Wasn’t BanBan one of the Fintstones characters?

#12 Zapstrap on 01.23.18 at 5:40 pm

Don’t be bothering the fine people in Van with all this. It just can’t be true. And don’t be telling the whole country about our snow in November either. Geez. You’ll be talking about our homeless next …

#13 T.J.BONES on 01.23.18 at 5:42 pm

Sir Garth:

I’m not Boring,

I’m Stabilized !!

#14 Doom & Gloom Not So Much on 01.23.18 at 5:42 pm

I think things ARE different this time. I think there has been an interesting and very real shift in human nature.

Debt is no longer scary, people don’t care if they ever pay their mortgage off, people just worry about carrying costs and bi-weekly payments. They just blend and extend when rates start to rise.

I wish you were right Garth, but atlas waiting for this RE Crash, is like Waiting for Godot – and for those who remember reading this in high school – Godot NEVER shows up! Just like in the play, there is NO Logical ending to this Housing story.

All us renters are pooched!

#15 JimmyJames on 01.23.18 at 5:43 pm

Hey Garth, I try to have a balanced portfolio – only ETF’s etc. and somewhere around the percentages you have always talked about. I have a couple of ETF’s (like emerging markets and whatnot) that are currently up over 25% from where I bought them (approx 1 yr). I only re-balance once or twice a year, but in a case like that would it be crazy to take those profits and count my lucky stars, or how should I do it? I don’t have enough yet for you to do it for me… someday hopefully. Thanks.

#16 our pal Val on 01.23.18 at 5:47 pm

In the old days we were made to understand that before you set foot on the road, you look both ways before crossing the street. Here in the big smoke people are becoming road kill by not following this simple potentially life saving rule. Even the simplest of lessons are not being taught to our young folk. Its all about looking at your cell phone and/or ear plugs grooving to the beat on your Iphone. Meanwhile watching the tube you are forced to view at least 25% commercial content all meaningless useless annoying advertising geared to profit the 0.1%er. Its all about making people MINDLESS OBEDIENT SLAVES . So far its working…..HOW DO WE FIGHT BACK?

#17 LivinLarge on 01.23.18 at 5:55 pm

Survival, “worth” and “current price” are often unrelated.

Currently my watch sells for over $10K USD but it certainly isn’t “worth” anything like that…not even to me.

#18 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.23.18 at 5:58 pm

@#172 Banned long enough! Canadian Millenial

I’m sure not having anyone as a captive audience for two days must be an absolutely frustrating experience for “you who must be heard”..

Give it another week…..it’ll seem like a millenium…….

#19 T on 01.23.18 at 5:58 pm

#2 Survival on 01.23.18 at 5:28 pm
…the market cannot survive.

Just like the market for a Bitcoin > $1,- cannot survive?

How could a coin based on thin-air, possible be worth more than a US dollar? Let alone $1000.- or $10,000.-

And yet…

——————

Morons speculating on products they don’t understand. It’s not hard to see this.

There are many who fall for the gold / bitcoin / real estate / weed investment websites, infomercials, and advertisements cloaked as news. I have friends who forward me YouTube adverts as if they are reliable sources of information. Much like how SCM references opinion pieces as fact. It makes me laugh every time. I have to continually remind people that just because it’s online does not make it true. I think it has something to do with never thinking or storing information and relying on google searches for everything and for showing correct information in the top search results (which is not guaranteed or how google actually works but people even fight me on this point).

Do a search for ‘bitcoin price’ right now. One of the top results ‘Could bitcoin hit $100,000 this year’ – and the article is full of bs bitcoin pumping.

In other words; greed, stupidity, and ignorance.

Fools and their money…

#20 HoweStreet.com on 01.23.18 at 5:59 pm

Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
Canada’s Housing Market Moves into a Correction.
Household debt to GDP forecast to decline.

https://www.howestreet.com/2018/01/22/canadas-housing-market-moves-into-a-correction/

#21 mark on 01.23.18 at 5:59 pm

Bankruptcy is a easy decision if your underwater most have there credit back in 5-7 years. The credit card companies will be offering you a new card in less than two years.

It’s easy to see where this is going.

#22 Adrian on 01.23.18 at 5:59 pm

I guess they don’t teach realtors how to rotate photos in their 60 day licensing courses.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19011909/57-PETER-ST-Markham-Ontario-L3P2A7-Old-Markham-Village

What makes a realtor put a listing up in this state? Is it just laziness? Apathy? Do they know it’s hopeless and don’t give a shit? Are they technologically inept? Or maybe they’re sending a message… “RUN!”

I’ve been seeing this way too often recently. It’s kind of depressing.

#23 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 01.23.18 at 6:06 pm

Buy Bitcoins, unplug your computer and then tell me how much money you have…..

#24 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 01.23.18 at 6:07 pm

Vancouver is so pooched. There are just two things locals should expect. Either houses cost $5 million each (at least) in a few years and the market seizes up – since nobody could buy and owners would fear selling – or it crashes and burns.
……………………………………..

If those are the two choices then I am in the $5 million dollar house camp. And I don’t think The Ploz will make any significant interest rate changes either.

#25 Tickle Me Elmo on 01.23.18 at 6:10 pm

The “seize up” scenario happened in Shanghai – so I’m told. Insane prices with very low turnover.

Last I heard, Screwed Canadian Millennial (SCM) was catching a boat there to work as a house maid. I wish it luck. Bring knee pads because carpet isn’t a thing over there.

#26 Mark on 01.23.18 at 6:11 pm

Bizarre day on the TSX. Gold and oil have big upwards moves, yet the TSX was flat. Solid oil companies with long-life assets are trading at 4X cashflow. The gold producers are absolutely killing it profit-wise. Labour pricing pressures are practically non-existent outside of the low-end service sector. If it weren’t for the obsession with housing, the TSX would be shooting up right now like mad.

The housing owners, oh boy, they’re going to be upset when they realize not only their quoted losses on property (Ross Kay gave a good interview yesterday, BTW, on TalkDigitalNetwork), but also the extreme opportunity costs involved with their ownership of housing.

#27 I foolishly thinks I really knowsomething on 01.23.18 at 6:13 pm

Speculation is rampant again! You’re kidding. Well, it just proves that nothing can stop this Canadian RE juggernaut. People keep predicting it’s demise, but it just keeps going. When will the doomers learn?

#28 Ian on 01.23.18 at 6:16 pm

I think this proves once and for all that the foreigner bashing needs to stop. Which Garth has only been saying for 18+ months.

If someone in China desperately wanted to get money out and into Canada, why not bid up Anne of Green Gables’ house to 20x income? Buy up half the east coast and create a bubble there.

The east coast peeps deserve a lot of er, ‘credit’ for not mimicking this bubble nonsense.

#29 dakkie on 01.23.18 at 6:18 pm

Rate Squeeze in Vancouver & Toronto Housing Bubbles

http://investmentwatchblog.com/rate-squeeze-in-vancouver-toronto-housing-bubbles/

#30 ole Doberman on 01.23.18 at 6:24 pm

A buddy recently told me his boss bought a condo for 250-300k in Vancouver, is this accurate or in the very shady part of town?? Somethings not adding up in the information flow

#31 Tony on 01.23.18 at 6:25 pm

Should America kill off the U.S. dollar further especially with DXY near the inflection point then interest rates will go up more than expected. This will be a big negative for U.S. real estate and people with even an ounce of brains will figure out if America real estate falls then Canadian real estate has to fall.

#32 n1tro on 01.23.18 at 6:28 pm

#5 calgaryguy on 01.23.18 at 5:33 pm
Garth, If you had a gun to your head and had to choose between a $600k Vancouver Condo or $600k of diversified crypto currencies, what do you do?
———————————
Too easy. Take $600K in cryptos. More liquid. Cash out in minutes, get funds transferred in days. Go to Turner Investments and diversify $500K into balance portfolio. Remaining $100K split in half gambling on real estate and more cryptos!

#33 Post on 01.23.18 at 6:28 pm

Having never heard of him, I googled Josh Steiner. Nothing relevant came up from within 10 years. I googled Joshua Steiner – less yet.

So who is this guy. Another blog dog with an opinion. Great just what we need.

#34 The real Kip on 01.23.18 at 6:29 pm

Well tonight is certainly good news. The more government intervenes in the housing market, the worse it gets. Go figure.

#35 UnScrewed Canadian Millenial on 01.23.18 at 6:34 pm

Will we see a 50c Loonie in the future after the real estate collapse?

#36 John on 01.23.18 at 6:35 pm

Question for the author/Garth:

In past articles you’ve alluded to foreign buyers influence on prices being over exaggerated and used the ~5% of all holdings data to support this. Has your opinion changed at all given the latest assertions that data simply can’t be accurately tracked given inability to verify beneficial ownership? What % of total ownership (or % of transactions as a better measure of current impact) would you consider material in influencing prices by foreign buyers?

Interested in your thoughts

#37 rknusa on 01.23.18 at 6:36 pm

re: In that case kiss your credit adios.

credit is only bad for seven years and then you buy on the upswing, it is called a strategic default

the banks and the system have made this nonsense a limited risk proposition in the case of young new buyers who have no assets to lose (other than the condo) in the first place

buy away!

#38 Bitcoin on 01.23.18 at 6:37 pm

Friendly reminder, Bitcoin has been trading at over $10K for just over 30 days..

Garth, you either lack perspective, or this thing has really shaken you your paradigm.

#39 Penny Henny on 01.23.18 at 6:41 pm

#6 Stan Brooks on 01.23.18 at 5:34 pm
Increase of credit/prices should not surpass wage i
As for the madness I have a feeling we have a lot more to see.

With NAFTA crumbling and the currency (it is called the loonie for a reason) melting, I can smell interest only 50 years loans and 6-8 million houses in Vancouver.

It is a mental institution folks, it is a mental institution and the personnel and the doctors, the crazies are in charge.
////////////////

Hey Stan. People want to know, how do you stay so positive?

Do you actually live in Canada?

#40 IHCTD9 on 01.23.18 at 6:42 pm

“Some experts go so far as to predict that replacing the all glass outer layers of buildings may become necessary as early as 15 to 20 years from the day that the condo is built, and cost as much as $80,000 per unit. In short, what seems very attractive and appealing to condo buyers today may come to haunt them in the not-so-distant future, by way of prohibitive maintenance and replacement costs.“

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/dan-s-barnabic/condos-lasting_b_6956838.html

#41 Tickle Me Elmo on 01.23.18 at 6:51 pm

#19 dear Mr. T

ALL news is opinion pieces. ALL value is a reflection of opinion.

#42 Chico on 01.23.18 at 6:52 pm

The end of March it will be 2 years we left the wet coast’s insanity and headed to the maritimes. Even as a renter it was very unsettling as people from all kinds of backgrounds are left wondering “what is going on.”

As much as people might want to talk about the “gains” and how rich they are, like the booze hound, they all know they are only treading water, and will pay somehow, someway.

The largest number of us “come from aways” are from YVR and GTA, and are thrilled to get out.

I just love that “banned” guy! He’s hilarious!

#43 Penny Henny on 01.23.18 at 6:53 pm

#16 our pal Val on 01.23.18 at 5:47 pm
In the old days we were made to understand that before you set foot on the road, you look both ways before crossing the street. Here in the big smoke people are becoming road kill by not following this simple potentially life saving rule. Even the simplest of lessons are not being taught to our young folk. Its all about looking at your cell phone and/or ear plugs grooving to the beat on your Iphone. Meanwhile watching the tube you are forced to view at least 25% commercial content all meaningless useless annoying advertising geared to profit the 0.1%er. Its all about making people MINDLESS OBEDIENT SLAVES . So far its working…..HOW DO WE FIGHT BACK?

//////////////////////

Use a PVR to record the shows and skip over the commercials.
Or do like Stan Brooks and live in your own world.

#44 Chaddywack on 01.23.18 at 6:53 pm

I just signed a 1 year lease (move out clauses are illegal now-thanks NDP!) that will convert to month to month.

My rent is about 1/3 of what a mortgage on that unit would cost me. Yes it’s in Vancouver.

I’m already “priced out forever” so why buy now :)

#45 Adrian on 01.23.18 at 6:54 pm

“The link between unaffordability and recessions”

http://www.macleans.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Stephen-Punwasi_web.jpg

“People think high home prices are just an affordability issue, and most don’t care. However, the real threat is to the Canadian economy. This chart shows the cost of servicing mortgage debt, in two major economic centres. The grey bars are recessions. You’ll notice that when the cost of servicing mortgages goes too high, a recession follows. Currently we’re at the third highest point in history.

“The reason this happens is simple. The more people pay for shelter, the less they have to spend at restaurants and shops. The lack of spending sends a ripple through employment, and the economy grinds to a halt. This happens until people deleverage, or there’s a new economic boom.

“This time is also different due to low interest rates. If the economy bucks all odds, and does well—interest rates will increase. If interest rates increase as little as 100 bps, the median Toronto household will need nine per cent more of their gross income to pay that mortgage. We have a rate trap, where all signs point to recession. Avoiding one would be nothing short of a miracle.”

Stephen Punwasi, data analyst

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-most-important-economic-charts-to-watch-in-2018/

#46 Penny Henny on 01.23.18 at 6:54 pm

Careful though. Stan’s world is really shitty.

#47 Penny Henny on 01.23.18 at 6:58 pm

#22 Adrian on 01.23.18 at 5:59 pm
I guess they don’t teach realtors how to rotate photos in their 60 day licensing courses.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19011909/57-PETER-ST-Markham-Ontario-L3P2A7-Old-Markham-Village

What makes a realtor put a listing up in this state? Is it just laziness? Apathy? Do they know it’s hopeless and don’t give a shit? Are they technologically inept? Or maybe they’re sending a message… “RUN!”

//////////////////

I loved the upside down ones. It’s like they rotated twice and then gave up.

#48 Terry on 01.23.18 at 7:02 pm

“The kids have been borrowing, and spending, as no generation before them. Unrepayable, elephantine, Trumpian debt is now the norm, and FOMO is back with a vengeance.”

Just let them go Garth, “Launch The Kids” and let them deal with the consequences of their own actions. We just look after ourselves and pretty muck ignore the folly and trends of other people. We see the mistakes their making and it’s best to just let them continue on their path and let life teach them the hard way.

#49 theoryAndPractice on 01.23.18 at 7:03 pm

Hi Garth and all, please help me to understand ;
If all of these purchases are done with cash I understand anybody can dump any amount of money on anything whether it is worth or not. That is fine, their choice…

If these purchases are done through getting mortgages, why and how these mortgages are provided to them?

#50 Dead Cat Bounce on 01.23.18 at 7:05 pm

That dog in the picture is going to have a ruff landing much like Vancouver RE prices

M54BC

#51 TortyPapa on 01.23.18 at 7:07 pm

A 1% increase in interest on a $2.5 million detach is $25,000 extra per year! A 2% increase is $50,000 per year. A 3% increase is $75,000 per year. You get the point. For some people to say a few points increase won’t make a difference is delusional. The market WILL correct, just not sure if it’s over the 25 percent mentioned by Garth.

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.23.18 at 7:11 pm

@#9 kamloops Realtor
“Kamloops real estate market is on fire!!”
++++++

Let me guess. Another sawmill went up in flames?

#53 Doug t on 01.23.18 at 7:21 pm

It’s different this time ?

RATM

#54 Banned long enough! Canadian Millenial on 01.23.18 at 7:22 pm

BANNED

#55 Vanrentor on 01.23.18 at 7:24 pm

Need help selling your pre-sale condo. You can get your profit in cash. Just call Nu Stream

https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/rew/d/dont-know-how-to-sell-your/6460132670.html

#56 Yuus bin Haad on 01.23.18 at 7:25 pm

Why do the Women’s Marchers wear pink?

#57 I foolishly thinks I really know something on 01.23.18 at 7:26 pm

#42 Dead Cat Bounce on 01.23.18 at 7:05 pm

That dog in the picture is going to have a ruff landing much like Vancouver RE prices
M54BC

—————————————————————–

I just have to laugh as I think about all the similarly derisive comments people have made in the past years about inflated Vancouver and TO RE prices. They all turned out to be way off base. There is way more room on the upside for both TO and Van City.

#58 LivinLarge on 01.23.18 at 7:26 pm

“A buddy recently told me his boss bought a condo for 250-300k in Vancouver, is this accurate or in the very shady part of town?? ” that’s after down payment or equity.

No, the full price wasn’t 300K even in Vancouver WA.

#59 joblo on 01.23.18 at 7:27 pm

Oh, to be Bankrumped in a Bankrumped Province in a Bankrumped Kountry.

Oh Kanada!

#60 -=jwk=- on 01.23.18 at 7:28 pm

@#8
Not that I am contemplating making any enormous residence change but is there any country in the developed world that currently has a tax system that is substantially better for residents than Canada’s?

U.S.A – if your income is 100k+ and you own a home you are in the lowest tax jurisdiction in the developed world. Throw in the recent tax cuts (what’s 1.5T in debt among friends?) and you are even better off.

#61 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 01.23.18 at 7:36 pm

#9 Kamloops realtor on 01.23.18 at 5:38 pm
Kamloops real estate market is on fire!!
………………….

So is Kelowna. People from GVRD cashing in their windfall tax free profits and relocating to saner places. Mission accomplished.

#62 MF on 01.23.18 at 7:44 pm

Lol the Canada hate on here is getting to be a little much:

#193 Stan Brooks on 01.23.18 at 4:32 pm

“blessed are the poor in spirit for theirs is the kingdom of heaven

UK and Canada have no place in this rating.”

-I don’t know what your quote means, and I don’t care.

But do you have a similar list to present where Canada is not mentioned?

And I’m sure if you lived somewhere else you would be a successful billionaire.

#197 TheDood on 01.23.18 at 5:03 pm

“Most business friendly? OK (LOL!)
Most modern? OK (OMG really?!)
Entrpreneurship? OK
Quality of Life? OK (LOL!)
Most forward looking countries? OK (LOL!)
Headquartering a corporation? OK (Is this whay they’re all leaving? – How many international company’s have their headquarters in Canada anyway?)”

-Thoughtful analysis. I don’t see any real counter argument though!

MF

#63 Nonplused on 01.23.18 at 7:47 pm

What’s going to be even more funny is all the government regulations that will pop up to support the Vancouver market after it does crash. Government solutions are always worse than the problems they intend to correct, and always lead to even more problems that the government must then correct in an endless cycle. If there ever was a way to create energy from the government legislation perpetual motion machine the energy crisis would be over.

#64 steph on 01.23.18 at 7:51 pm

Not that I want to be a party-crashing-enlightening-ass

But Garth, you might wrong on your Montreal assessment.

It’s maybe a secret, but they are f***ed as well. Delusional, no difference. They have lower salary, hence, lower RE. but still same idiotic ratios…

Cheers!

#65 sigh on 01.23.18 at 7:55 pm

What is driving the average SFH price is that there is no land left to build condos. The city has rezoned large tracts from SFH to multi-family or town homes. Developers buy up land assemblies, but to do so they make bully offers to incentivise people to sell, skewing the average SFH price up. If your house is not in a rezoning area selling price is lower, unless you can find a buyer with pockets full from selling their rezoned property.

#66 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.23.18 at 7:57 pm

BANNED

#67 Mark on 01.23.18 at 7:57 pm

“If these purchases are done through getting mortgages, why and how these mortgages are provided to them?”

Mortgage lending is secured asset-backed lending. All that really matters to a mortgage lender is how much equity is brought to the table. The GTA/GVR RE markets are characterized by people willing to stretch their ability to obtain secured (and arguably, even unsecured) credit to the limit in order to purchase the specific asset class of housing. The statistics bear this out with the extreme amounts of leverage present on the balance sheets of Canadian consumer borrowers.

Some of the most egregious examples of transactions over the years in Toronto/Vancouver, when examined carefully, are nothing but shams between related entities. For example, most “assignment flipping” (as it was called) in Vancouver can be shown to be that of transactions between related or near-related entities. As nobody who was not a related entity would ever commit real money (or mortgage credit) to purchasing a property without acquiring clear title.

Why have these sham transactions been taking place over the past few years? The Canadian RE market hit its peak in 2013, coincident with Flaherty cracking down on CMHC subprime mortgage insurance. But large “mom and pop” owners of real estate, sometimes termed “landlord families” have become heavily reliant on appreciation to remain solvent. So naturally passing a few properties between themselves manages to create, at least as far as the RE boards’ numbers go, the allusion of stability or rising prices. It also keeps the lenders “solvent” as a secured loan can never honesetly be marked at a value greater than the underlying value of the collateral with a reasonable discount for liquidation expense.

#68 Canadian One on 01.23.18 at 8:00 pm

THE outlook strategy… diversification.

“And real earnings growth per share for the S&P Composite Stock Price Index over the previous ten years was negatively correlated (-17% since 1881) with real earnings growth over the subsequent ten years. That’s the opposite of momentum. It means that good news about earnings growth in the past decade is (slightly) bad news about earnings growth in the future.” – Robert J. Shiller

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-stock-market-highest-cape-ratio-by-robert-j–shiller-2018-01

#69 Mark on 01.23.18 at 8:01 pm

“Will we see a 50c Loonie in the future after the real estate collapse?”

Nope. We might see a much higher, say, a $1.20-$1.40 loonie after the RE collapse as very few Canadian consumers, heavily loaded up with mortgage debt, will have much if any money to spend on imports. Imports crash, exportable goods surge (as domestic consumption is clipped by the same forces) = much higher currency.

#70 IHCTD9 on 01.23.18 at 8:02 pm

#24 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 01.23.18 at 6:07 pm
Vancouver is so pooched. There are just two things locals should expect. Either houses cost $5 million each (at least) in a few years and the market seizes up – since nobody could buy and owners would fear selling – or it crashes and burns.
……………………………………..

If those are the two choices then I am in the $5 million dollar house camp. And I don’t think The Ploz will make any significant interest rate changes either
———-

That would be a 25K per month mortgage payment. I think there would be an armed rebellion before it came to that.

#71 Sultan of Sudbury on 01.23.18 at 8:02 pm

“Banks find themselves holding properties they neither need nor want.”

And just how long do you think these banks are going to want to hold onto negative carry assets (condo fees, insurance, utilities.)

The answer is as short as possible.

#72 For those about to flop... on 01.23.18 at 8:02 pm

Recent Sale Report/Realtor Assistance Needed.

This relatively affordable option in Coquitlam sold 19 days ago and so I will try to find out what it went for on behalf of the Coquitlam guys on the blog.

Are they still kings…

M43BC

Paid 1.04 in Feb 2016
Ass.1.19

269 King St,Coquitlam.

May 16:$1,199,900
Sep 7: $1,159,000
Change: – 40900.00 -3%

https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/269-king-street

#73 Arto on 01.23.18 at 8:03 pm

I thought Vancouver was supposed to crash 10 years ago?

#74 Musty Basement Dweller on 01.23.18 at 8:06 pm

See the attached article which mentions that the NDP government in BC is, in addition to prices, trying to crack down on money laundering in real estate with the February 20th budget. Good luck to them. https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/01/23/analysis/we-had-no-idea-it-was-big-bc-attorney-general-money-laundering-notes

#75 Fiendish Thingy on 01.23.18 at 8:08 pm

This California native boomer is just weeks away from being granted Canadian citizenship…I’m grateful for the peace of mind moving to Canada has brought, despite the insane real estate market. Happily renting for another couple of years until we vultch a nice home for our retirement.

I look forward to a 60% price decline in the hundreds of $400-600k condos and townhomes built in the past couple of years along 240th in Maple Ridge BC…WHEEE!

Mathematical reminder: it only takes a 33% decrease in price to erase a 50% gain…

#76 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.23.18 at 8:12 pm

BANNED

#77 For those about to flop... on 01.23.18 at 8:14 pm

Pink Snow falling in Richmond.

These guys had a time out for a couple of weeks to decide what the new game plan was going to be.

Decided to take 100k off asking and put it up all shiny and new.

Break even would be a win in this case…

M43BC

7720 Malahat Ave,Richmond.

Paid 2.15 April 2017

Were Asking 2.09

Now 1.99

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/7720-malahat-avenue

#78 InvestorsFriend on 01.23.18 at 8:15 pm

The Virtuous Circle That Drove Prices Higher

#49 theoryAndPractice on 01.23.18 at 7:03 pm asked:

If these purchases are done through getting mortgages, why and how these mortgages are provided to them?

********************************************
Indeed, THAT will be the question if things go south and we see mortgage defaults.

But basically easy credit and lower interest rates led to bigger mortgages that led to bidding home prices up that led appraisers to up the market value of homes which drove banks to approve even larger mortgages that allowed house prices to be bid up even more and so on.

Until fairly recently there was no requirement to consider whether the payments could still be made if interest rates were higher as the mortgage renewed which was usually no longer than five years and sometimes sooner.

If house prices slide a lot then lenders will be asked what they were thinking. Until then the banks will leverage their equity up to 100 times (I am not kidding) giving risk-free CMHC mortgages. I believe the official risk weighting factor on a CMHC mortgage is zero – but there are some other limits that apply. Overall, RBC “only” leverages its common equity about 20 times!

#79 n1tro on 01.23.18 at 8:21 pm

#23 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 01.23.18 at 6:06 pm

Buy Bitcoins, unplug your computer and then tell me how much money you have…..
—————-
It doesnt matter if your computer is on or off, how much you have is recorded on a public ledger for all to know. How much it is worth is a different story.

#80 GTARealtor on 01.23.18 at 8:25 pm

Dont believe a word you read here. Demand by buyers is unreal, even after stress test or higher rates. I know I know, I’m pushing my own agenda right? Numbers don’t lie….I can show anyone who has doubt sales and prices this month. Multiple offers everywhere

But I’m sure my comment won’t even be published like every time before

So, show us the stats. – Garth

#81 T on 01.23.18 at 8:25 pm

#38 Bitcoin on 01.23.18 at 6:37 pm
Friendly reminder, Bitcoin has been trading at over $10K for just over 30 days..

Garth, you either lack perspective, or this thing has really shaken you your paradigm.

——————

Wow! A whole 30 days! You forgot to mention a bitcoin has dropped about 50% in ‘value’ in that time.

With payment systems like Stripe and many other corporations dropping support for bitcoin, you will see it soon enough.

I’m sure Garth is not bothered by anything bitcoin. Only fools bought into the paradigm.

What’s your fascination with bitcoin? Why do you feel it important to bring it up? Where do you find value in this fantasy currency?

#82 TalkingPie on 01.23.18 at 8:28 pm

#64 steph on 01.23.18 at 7:51 pm

Not that I want to be a party-crashing-enlightening-ass

But Garth, you might wrong on your Montreal assessment.

It’s maybe a secret, but they are f***ed as well. Delusional, no difference. They have lower salary, hence, lower RE. but still same idiotic ratios…

Cheers!

********************************************

How do you figure that? Average household income in Montreal is less than Toronto, but only just barely, and the average house is less than half as expensive.

Average house price in greater Montreal is $374,333; Toronto is $775,546 (both figures are from September 2017, because they’re the most recent that 30 seconds of Googling yielded). According to StatsCan, median income in Toronto in 2015 was $78,280 and $76,950 in Montreal.

Care to explain how that $1,330 per year buys more than twice as much house?

Let’s also keep in mind that commuting from the outskirts of Greater Montreal is bound to be less painful than from the outskirts of GTA. You can move outside of Greater Montreal, where house prices are even less expensive, and still have a more livable commute than some places inside the GTA.

#83 Prairie Dawg on 01.23.18 at 8:28 pm

#10 Stan Brooks on 01.23.18 at 5:38 pm
More brainwashing for the stupid sheeple.
https://ca.yahoo.com/news/canada-ranks-second-best-country-195755348.html
Making you feel special as to pay the premium they require for you to live in the frozen north.
Mental facility.
**********

From the report you referenced, which was a survey of 21,000 people worldwide:

“Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel were the most respected leaders.”

I guess the T2 bashers on here are in the minority. How’s that feel?

The Wharton School of Business, a collaborator in the survey is not a slouch in the biz world.
In comparison, let’s look at some of the gems published by the Frontier Centre for Public Policy, a prairie think tank Garth cited above..
Honestly, these are the first two that popped up.

Which Best Helps the Poor? January 15, 2008
“Higher minimum wages create distortions in the labour market that have their own harmful effects. The worst of these is forbidding the least skilled from sharing in the dignity of work”.

Did they actually poll the “least skilled” about their dignity, or did they guess?

CEO Compensation, Politicians’ Salaries, and NHL PLayers. October 28, 2013
“One particular comparison nicely puts it into perspective: “Robert Dutton, CEO of RONA, is responsible for one of the biggest retailers in Canada with nearly 52,000 employees. Mr. Dutton earned just under $3.2-million last year, roughly the same as third-line NHL forwards Niklas Hagman of the Calgary Flames and Colby Armstrong of the Toronto Maple Leafs.”1 One might expect that social democrats would be at least as angry with NHL players as they are with CEOs.”

One might, except that most people know that most NHL players have very short careers – average 5.72 seasons.

GO LEAFS!

#84 Mark on 01.23.18 at 8:28 pm

“And just how long do you think these banks are going to want to hold onto negative carry assets (condo fees, insurance, utilities.)
The answer is as short as possible.”

Yeah the Canadian system, that of the CMHC basically guaranteeing nearly 100% of the at-risk subprime market (ie: high LTV), means that the banks have absolutely no incentive to warehouse properties to prevent write-downs on the rest of their balance sheet.

That’s the beauty of the Canadian system from a banker’s perspective — they can get their money back basically whenever they want. I suspect banks would much rather, for example, write single large loans worth billions a piece to Canada’s historically under-leveraged telecoms, railways, miners, pipelines, oil and gas producers, etc., for the purposes of large stock buy-backs and dividend payouts, instead of lending to mortgage borrowers $300k a piece with large workforces required to sell and service such loans.

For the borrowers who remain in a housing decline, they should expect to pay more, a lot more for their credit. Even if the BoC keeps rates low (which they are likely to, with Ross Kay even hinting in his interview yesterday that the BoC probably should’ve cut rates!), banks will increasingly incorporate rising risk premiums to the residential mortgage loans that they do write or renew to reflect the fact that the collateral is falling in value.

#85 T on 01.23.18 at 8:30 pm

#41 Tickle Me Elmo on 01.23.18 at 6:51 pm
#19 dear Mr. T

ALL news is opinion pieces. ALL value is a reflection of opinion.

——————

No. There is this thing called data. Data is not an opinion. You use data to draw conclusions.

Skills many don’t have and find hard to develop.

#86 300k on 01.23.18 at 8:31 pm

#30

Maybe the condo is on leasehold land that whose lease about to expire?

300k sounds like a steal if it is on freehold land.

#87 Penny Henny on 01.23.18 at 8:34 pm

#76 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.23.18 at 8:12 pm
BANNED
//////

There is screwed and then there is pathetic,
What is it have you made 30+ chances to post here.

#88 Howard on 01.23.18 at 8:34 pm

There are a billion people waiting to pack their bags and move to Vancouver and T2 is rolling out the red carpet for ‘em. No foreign buyer ban = bubble inflation 4eva.

#89 Nemesis on 01.23.18 at 8:34 pm

“What Comrade John Horgan and his provincial government do in next month’s budget will set the scene.” – GeneralSecretaryGT

#TuesdayMischief,Or… #WhenTheBossCalls,YouGo… #GuangdongJohn’sTreasureIsland…

https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2018PREM0007-000077#

#90 LivinLarge on 01.23.18 at 8:38 pm

Sultan, “And just how long do you think these banks are going to want to hold onto negative carry assets (condo fees, insurance, utilities.)

The answer is as short as possible.” Of course it is. The bank doesn’t want to be a landlord…ever. Unless the property was fraudulently appraised (extraordinarily rare if ever) or the property dropped 30% before default (hopefully rare) then they get the three best offers in 90 days or less and sell it. If they lost on the transaction then it’s either mortgage insurance or they try to bleed the guy who they lent to in the first place. Oh and they get their vig for all their costs. Not a bad gig. Not what they want to do sure but still the bank doesn’t stand much chance of any significant loss.

#91 Howard on 01.23.18 at 8:42 pm

SCM will return when he gets a new computer and/or phone. He will alter his posting style slightly hoping that nobody figures it out, but eventually the old SCM will come through and be exposed…and banned again.

#92 Carlos on 01.23.18 at 8:42 pm

Folks. I still don’t understand and no one has been able to explain how regular people in Vancouver are buying houses at these prices.

I make about $100k, have about $300k in stocks and such and don’t own a home and I feel that I’m doing well. I’m happy with what I’ve got. Average person makes what in Van? $50k? How do they buy a house? Are they taking out loans to make a down payment?

#93 Blutterfy on 01.23.18 at 8:43 pm

YVR is pooched. Called my aunt at 3:30am this morning to tell her about the tsunami warning. I felt my bed shake in the prairies. Thankfully tsunami was only 1foot instead of 30. Still, 50% chance of a major earthquake on the west coast in the next 50 years. The average time between major quakes is something like ~270 years. It’s been 370? years since the last one. Let’s see how much your concrete’s worth after the quake. I’ll wait.

#94 Rob JM on 01.23.18 at 8:43 pm

People being priced out of Vancouver and forced to move elsewhere are incedibly lucky. The cascadia subduction fault has already accumulated 300 years of strain and next megathust earthquake is going wipe that place out.average time between quakes is about 270 years

#95 Marquis de Sad on 01.23.18 at 8:44 pm

SCM asked me to relay an urgent message that I just received (via carrier pigeon).

“Garth, if you stop torturing me I will deleat (sic) that photo of you walking your cat. Nobody has to know.”

Solitary Canadian Millenial

#96 chiseled and frothy on 01.23.18 at 8:46 pm

Good sir,

There are a number of credible reports around foreign money and it’s influence on the YVR market. Be it money laundering or purchasing through proxies, the loopholes that currently exist are allowing foreign money to get parked here in the real estate market as a safe haven. Why do you refuse to acknowledge this?

Foreign buyers have an influence in every major city. But they do not set prices. You do. – Garth

#97 Carlos on 01.23.18 at 8:46 pm

Also, has anyone else noticed that the TSX is basically at the same level it was at 10 years ago. The chart is beyond pathetic. I am heavily in us equities and that turned out to be amazing.

What companies are even in the TSX? Bell, rogers, Telus? Boring. Canadians don’t make anything eh. (Other than houses)

#98 Hugh Janus on 01.23.18 at 8:47 pm

Vancouver is screwed. If a 30% haircut doesnt simmer that market then at some point a 7.8 shaking on the richter scale will. Richmond condos will all be waterfront.

Never a better time to hit xrp. Prices are low and opportunity knocks. Many good buys out there on others too.

Could you imagine being a banker right now? They must be bringing a lot of clean clothes to work each day as they realise that crypto is seeping in and displacing the scourge of fiat money that only has central banker lies behind it for its value. They must crap themselvez 10 times per day knowing you cant stop crypto. All the bankers can do is fire up those presses and make fiat less valuable.

In the meantime make some crypto moves while its down. Conservative estimates are bitcoin at 100 000 by june….

#99 Newcomer on 01.23.18 at 8:55 pm

#28 Ian on 01.23.18 at 6:16 pm

If someone in China desperately wanted to get money out and into Canada, why not bid up Anne of Green Gables’ house to 20x income? Buy up half the east coast and create a bubble there.
——

Indeed. Or better still, just buy it at 2x income, so it would be less likely to go down, then move on to buy somewhere else. There are tons of safe, discreet places to park money in Canada. Vancouver is not one of them.

#100 Robert on 01.23.18 at 8:55 pm

Since subprime, foreign capital, and criminal proceeds are welcomed in our YVR landromat, the bubble will continue. With NAFTA quivering and Poloz shivering, the likelihood of T2 or Horgan popping the golden goose is next to NIL. The circus continues apace.

#101 BlogDog123 on 01.23.18 at 8:56 pm

Screwed Canadian Millennial does not know what to do now that he’s banned. I guess he’ll just have to troll on another website… Craigslist rants and raves might still work…

#102 Bitcoinnaire on 01.23.18 at 8:59 pm

@81
>What’s your fascination with bitcoin? Why do you feel it important to bring it up? Where do you find value in this fantasy currency?

Well for one, it dis-empowers and de-emphasizes the appeal and financial clout of archaic, legacy “boomer” asset classes, like stocks and bonds which are rife with fraud, under-performance, systemic manipulation of stock prices by institutions and savvy investors.

You think your government tokens are more valuable because there’s a conscript army enforcing their value?

What’s that? Can’t hear you over the roar of the printing presses as they de-value and de-flate and terrifying rates..

You’ll be lucky to offset their inflation with a “balanced and mediocre” portfolio advertised here.

How about Bitcoin deflation? The moister way of losing 50% of your capital in a month. Too funny. – Garth

#103 #48 Terry on 01.23.18 at 9:00 pm

They are reluctant to listen and end up paying the price. The problem is that the price typically effects our price too – in a bad way. No win SOL hand.

#104 fishman on 01.23.18 at 9:02 pm

Let’s see; there’s 900 billion taxed assessments for 2018 Vancouver. Maybe 1/3 mortgage free like me & some of my buds. Thats 270 billion access to capital from the greedy banks. Plus “other income”cash flow for us vultures. Best of all we got decades of participation this wild poker game. Let the crap fall forever. There is a number & thats when we jump in.. Its the quality that we want. Not just the have nots that want her to fall.

#105 S.Bby on 01.23.18 at 9:03 pm

#9 Kamloops realtor

When is that new mine opening up? You know, the giant open pit mine right next to all those hundreds of houses?

#106 John Doughboy on 01.23.18 at 9:03 pm

#97 Carlos on 01.23.18 at 8:46 pm
Also, has anyone else noticed that the TSX is basically at the same level it was at 10 years ago. The chart is beyond pathetic. I am heavily in us equities and that turned out to be amazing. What companies are even in the TSX? Bell, rogers, Telus? Boring. Canadians don’t make anything eh. (Other than houses)
************

We make planes and trains, but the Yanks put tariffs on them.

We make lots of wood products, but the Yanks put tariffs on them too.

We make lots of oil from tar, but the Yanks won’t even pay us what it costs to produce it.

We make love, not war. That’s why we’re # 2 eh?

#107 The otherside on 01.23.18 at 9:11 pm

Girlfriend and I live on surrey/langley boarder. 2 townhomes just sold over asking in the complex. one listed for $520K sold for $550. The other was listed for $599K and sold for $603K. People just can’t stop or help themselves. Nothing will change. All I hear is people wanting to buy real estate and “investment Properties”. Airbnb is big right now too. Plus our weak Finance Minister will be treading softly.

#108 Re., T on 01.23.18 at 9:23 pm

Your rubbish is getting old .

Even from seemingly nonsense there’s always greater fool. Money to be made .

Bought canopy at 8.95ish (avenged in) sold out $43.50

Keep attacking weed, crypto’s…the stuff that your mind can’t make sense and keep assuming everyone is losing money in these ‘scams’ – it puts your mind as ease ,value in that

#109 Tickle Me Elmo on 01.23.18 at 9:24 pm

#85 Mr. T
#41 Tickle Me Elmo on 01.23.18 at 6:51 pm
#19 dear Mr. T

ALL news is opinion pieces. ALL value is a reflection of opinion.

——————

No. There is this thing called data. Data is not an opinion. You use data to draw conclusions.

Skills many don’t have and find hard to develop.

———

Dear Mr. T,

Decision and opinions are fully embedded into data. There is no such thing as “neutral” data.

Deciding on what data to collected…how it is collected…how it is aggregated….how it is presented…all involve decisions and consequently, opinions.

Some think that ‘data interpretation’ is the only stage open to opinions and biases, but this is not reality.

Tickle Me Elmo

#110 S.Bby on 01.23.18 at 9:27 pm

True story:
co-worker bought a TH last year in White Rock. Now “worth” ~20% more, so he and wife will now pull out their equity and buy a detached house in South Surrey and keep the TH as a rental “investment” because it’s value will keep going up. A million dollar plus mortgage doesn’t seem to bother him. They had a hard time getting financing with the new stress test but the bank managed to make it work.

#111 Blackened on 01.23.18 at 9:30 pm

#105

If you followed daily life outside of your bubble in Burnaby, you would know the mine was rejected. Now off you go. Back to your over priced s*** hole.

#112 Evan Goldberg on 01.23.18 at 9:31 pm

#106 John Doughboy

You mean Bombardier? That’s a crown corp you know right?

So a crown corp and lots of cutting down of trees and raping the land? Very innovative!

#113 Entrepreneur on 01.23.18 at 9:33 pm

Like David Eby, NDP, like how he is standing up for us; like how he implemented the RCMP; like how is fighting for us. And it is about time someone spoke for us. Thank you!

Know about Royalties #132 Nonplused but did not know it went to the military but not a surprise. But maybe use part or make another (like the National Carbon Tax) to go towards green. Could also create a fund/tax on jets (international ones too), ships, and how about this one, casinos.

About my whole adult life (50 years) we have been talking about green energy but looks to me we are still in the Flintstone Age or close to it, stuck in time.

T2 is still talking about the pipeline but where is the green energy talks. Where is the transition? And let us see a plan!

#114 pay your taxes on 01.23.18 at 9:35 pm

You and many readers here in the peanut gallery mock FOMO but a lot of people who hesitated have missed their opportunity, forever. I work with fools who thought there would be a crash ten years ago. Frugal fools with good incomes and they will never be able to buy a home for their families within a civilized distance of our workplace. The non fools bought in and have made a million plus tax free and have choices that the filthy renters can only dream of.

Those of us who live here in Vancouver have been bleating on for years that “things are different here” and they really are. Many of us would rather be stabbed in the eye than visit Toronto, much less than have to live there. Horgan can’t stop this train and neither will a measly .5% rate increase.

P.S. I’m a renter, not an agent or a “greater fool”, but perhaps the greatest fool for not buying back in.

We didn’t stop you. – Garth

#115 Damifino on 01.23.18 at 9:39 pm

#98 Hugh Janus

If a 30% haircut doesnt simmer that market then at some point a 7.8 shaking on the richter scale will. Richmond condos will all be waterfront.
—————————–

A major west coast geophysical event is due sometime between now and 300 years hence. As a consequence, nobody cares. A similar mode of thinking remains evident in the case of YVR residential real estate.

#116 n1tro on 01.23.18 at 9:41 pm

#81 T on 01.23.18 at 8:25 pm
#38 Bitcoin on 01.23.18 at 6:37 pm

What’s your fascination with bitcoin? Why do you feel it important to bring it up? Where do you find value in this fantasy currency?
——————————————-
What’s your fascination of trashing something that has no “value”? Let fools be. Bitcoin is brought up because it was mentioned in today’s blog post.

As for fantasy currency which isnt legal tender yet readily accepted and used by thousands of Canucks….ever heard of Canadian Tire money? Or Shopper’s points which are converted to cash equivalent. Came out of nowhere. Unknown amount in circulation. “Printed” out of thin air. Earns no interest. Has no inherent value other than the promise by that you can use it at their stores.

#117 Smoking Man on 01.23.18 at 9:56 pm

I can’t see all those buggers at Davos haddled up chirping Trump. T2 being the Globalists biggest pin up doll leading the pack.

2nd topic of conversation look who we’ve taken total mind control of young people everywhere just as stupid as there teachers.

Nafta is dead . T2 going with TPP a total disaster for Canada.

Few years in and he’s going the country.

#118 WE SET YOUR HOME PRICES on 01.23.18 at 9:57 pm

The Fate Of The US Housing Market Is In The Hands Of Indian Real Estate Agents And Satellite Photos

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-22/fate-us-housing-market-hands-real-estate-agents-and-satellite-photos

“That’s right: Shoddy satellite photos and workers at call centers in India – thousands of miles away from the homes they’re evaluating – are making up prices for homes ”

You don’t need a war to throw thousands of people out of their home.

#119 akashic record on 01.23.18 at 9:58 pm

#23 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 01.23.18 at 6:06 pm

Buy Bitcoins, unplug your computer and then tell me how much money you have…..

—-

If suddenly all computers go off-line, fiat money also goes dark, you won’t be able to get a cent from an ABM or from a teller. Brokerages go dark,stocks, ETFs go dark, credit cards, too. Not much difference once you run out of cash, that very few people keep in substantial amount at home these days.

If computers go offline with data loss, or infrastructure loss the consequences are as unpredictable as the ability of the FBI to retain a couple of month text messages.

Imagine the efforts and complexity that would have to go into restoring the financial system (bank accounts, investment accounts, etc.) separately at every single financial institution, from chaotic variety of devices, data formats, custom applications on various platforms.

Compare that with bitcoin, where the entire blockchain is available to anyone to download and store it on a simple laptop.

In ONE full valet all bitcoin holdings are fully preserved, the entire system can be restored and become operational much faster than ANY part of the current financial system.

#120 Lee on 01.23.18 at 9:58 pm

Someone described to me that owning Bitcoin is like having high score in a pinball game. Once the novelty wares off or the power goes out you’re only left with memories.

#121 Mike on 01.23.18 at 9:59 pm

.
All fine in GVR.
No issues.
I will donate $100 to Garth’s charity of choice when prices crash to 2015 levels.

#122 Mark on 01.23.18 at 9:59 pm

“There are tons of safe, discreet places to park money in Canada. Vancouver is not one of them.”

Yes. That’s why the concocted meme of “Chinese” money (or alternatively, “Persian” money, “Arab” money, etc.) is so disgusting. Not only is it a complete falsehood, but it is profoundly insulting to those of those particular nationalities or ethnicities to suggest that they’re blindly piling into some of the most expensive assets in the world. Its racism of the most disgusting and divisive kind, preying on the insecurities of some Canadians, and the sheer ignorance of others as to the evolving demographic composition of Canada’s major cities.

Anyone who cares to study the statistics can see, in plain view, that there is little to no foreign participation or ‘money’ in Canada’s RE marketplace.

#123 Hells bells on 01.23.18 at 10:00 pm

To all those people out there that don’t understand how the B.C. economy works. Please watch the link below, if you want to come play with us leave your peddle bikes at home thx

https://youtu.be/neTYgDu7TUg

#124 Mark on 01.23.18 at 10:05 pm

” Horgan can’t stop this train and neither will a measly .5% rate increase.”

You’re right, because Flaherty stopped it in 2013 when he brought down Budget 2013 that cracked down on the CMHC and its subprime mortgage insurance program. Since then, Vancouver and GTA RE prices have stagnated on identical properties. Yes, the construction continued, and brand new up-market supply has skewed the numbers higher due to the shift in the sales mix, but the house or condo that a person bought in 2013 in the GTA or Vancouver is worth similar today as it was in 2013. The stock portfolios have been powering forward since 2013, with a lot more growth to come, particularly in the TSX for which the cyclicals are ready to explode anytime now as resources come back into favour.

The leveraged homeowners you speak of, yes, they did well until the 2013 apex, but now they’re sitting on a dead asset that, in many cases, isn’t even cash-flow positive and certainly has no net earnings after reasonable long-term maintenance and depreciation expenses are accounted for.

#125 Banned long enough! Canadian Millenial on 01.23.18 at 10:09 pm

BANNED

#126 T on 01.23.18 at 10:10 pm

#102 Bitcoinnaire on 01.23.18 at 8:59 pm
@81
>What’s your fascination with bitcoin? Why do you feel it important to bring it up? Where do you find value in this fantasy currency?

—————

The value is where? Everyone knows the spiel you are spouting, none of it relates to value.

Maybe that’s it. Bitcoin ‘investors’ don’t understand value. Or technology apparently.

What’s the value of a shared database? Noda. It might as well be a shared excel sheet.

What’s the value in open source code (which bitcoin is)? Noda. Anyone can download and use. Many have. Have any dogecoin?

It’s a complete joke, akin to a pyramid scheme. You need people to buy in for you to get out.

One day you and those like you will realize this. I suspect sooner than later.

Bitcoin is not going to $100,000. You will be lucky if it’s sitting at $1000 by the end of the year. Fantasy currency.

#127 the Jaguar on 01.23.18 at 10:11 pm

I like the way the light falls on Bandit and the snow in ‘tracking wolf tracks’. It’s reminiscent of Alberta light, which is different than anywhere else in the country, and the reason we can utilize certain colours in decor that would not work in other locales.
Please don’t toy with us, Garth. I am bathed in schadenfreude as I read the ever desperate pleadings of ‘you know who’ who begs for reinstatement.
As Nancy Reagan once said…”Just say no”.

#128 Kamloops mayor on 01.23.18 at 10:19 pm

Kamloops is the best city in Canada to live in, Toronto is a shit hole!

#129 T on 01.23.18 at 10:24 pm

#108 Re., T on 01.23.18 at 9:23 pm
Your rubbish is getting old .

Even from seemingly nonsense there’s always greater fool. Money to be made .

Bought canopy at 8.95ish (avenged in) sold out $43.50

Keep attacking weed, crypto’s…the stuff that your mind can’t make sense and keep assuming everyone is losing money in these ‘scams’ – it puts your mind as ease ,value in that

——————

It’s not rubbish if it’s true. But thanks for the criticism.

Congrats on canopy. I know several who bought in the $2 range, they did very well and got out around the top at $43 a few weeks ago upon my convincing a p/e of 500+ is not a healthy stock. The chart’s not looking good either. But hey, you got out so you must have felt the same.

Did you cash out of canopy and dump it all into bitcoin? I stopped someone from doing just that. They are very thankful.

Fact is I do understand the value of a plant you can easily grow yourself at home with very little maintenance. I also understand the value of an open source codebase which amounts to a shared database. I worry about those who don’t.

So instead of attacking me, try attacking the arguments. Try being constructive.

#130 Keith in Rio on 01.23.18 at 10:28 pm

#114 Pay Your Taxes said ” I work with fools who thought there would be a crash ten years ago. Frugal fools with good incomes and they will never be able to buy a home for their families within a civilized distance of our workplace. The non fools bought in and have made a million plus tax free and have choices that the filthy renters can only dream of”

I’ve got more cash in the bank than you do and could easily have bought said house back then or today, but am not stupid. I’m liquid. Big difference……oh…..I rent too.

#131 Smoking Man on 01.23.18 at 10:40 pm

125 Banned long enough! Canadian Millenial on 01.23.18 at 10:09 pm
BANNED
……

Ha. If you need a friend @SmokingMan

#132 Mattl on 01.23.18 at 10:41 pm

Moisters as the driving force behind YVR RE run up is a good laugh. As if 30 somethings making 50-70k a year are driving a city with million dollar homes. Cheap money or not the math just doesn’t work.

And Hong Kong, Van and Sydney are top three for speccers? Hmmm what do these three cities have in common.

#133 Bob Loblaw on 01.23.18 at 10:43 pm

Somehow, incomes are meaningless in BC. Unemployment could be 100% and detached prices would still be up 9% YoY.

Buying and selling houses back and forth to each other is the entire economy!

#134 Carlos on 01.23.18 at 10:45 pm

I must agree that Taranta is indeed a hellhole. In the news today, a guy from Brampton (total hellhole) randomly shooting at people. Luckily no one dead. Cops got the guy.

#135 NoName on 01.23.18 at 10:56 pm

Interesting read, keep making post sec edu expencive,
make them boys and girls not clever…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-22/south-korea-tops-global-innovation-ranking-again-as-u-s-falls

no one likes to pay high bank-king fees, but bitconer seem to be ok with that.

https://news.bitcoin.com/coinbase-making-2-7-million-day/?utm_source=OneSignal%20Push&utm_medium=notification&utm_campaign=Push%20Notifications

tru or not you descide

An anonymous reader shares a WashingtonPost report:
Minutes after the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency mistakenly sent a missile alert at 8:07 a.m. on Jan. 13 — terrifying residents and visitors across the state — some officials, such as Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, rushed to Twitter to reassure everyone it was a mistake. But one Twitter account was deafeningly silent for 17 minutes: that of Hawaii Gov. David Ige. Though Ige was informed by the state’s adjutant general that the alert was false two minutes after it was sent, he waited until 8:24 a.m. to tweet, “There is NO missile threat.” On Monday, after he gave the State of the State address in which he avoided the subject of the missile alert fiasco, reporters demanded an explanation for that long silence. Ige’s answer: He couldn’t log in to Twitter. “I have to confess that I don’t know my Twitter account log-ons and the passwords, so certainly that’s one of the changes that I’ve made,” Ige said.

#136 For those about to flop... on 01.23.18 at 11:02 pm

And Hong Kong, Van and Sydney are top three for speccers? Hmmm what do these three cities have in common.

///////////////////

Pretty bloody obvious to me.

They all have a ‘n’ in their name…

M43BC

#137 Canadian Millenial’s Boomer Dad on 01.23.18 at 11:04 pm

Garth it’s not his fault, he always got a trophy, pushed through school always “past” . Great at super Mario then Call of Duty, Grand Theft Auto etc. Please show some compassion (more then deserved) Thanks a conserned parent!

#138 john m on 01.23.18 at 11:06 pm

The source of the problem>>>>When you are dead you don’t know you are dead.It is only difficult for others……..It is the same when you are stupid :-)

#139 april on 01.23.18 at 11:12 pm

According to Ross Kay, Canada including Van, is now into a “correction” following 13 months of “contraction”.

#140 Gary smith on 01.23.18 at 11:12 pm

I would be remiss if I didn’t post on yet another “moisters” getting FOMO and local speculators driving the market post. In part, I agree this is contributing.

But it’s the locals, at least ones who want to buy housing to live in, who are the odd man out. Little down saved due to high cost of living , competing against rising prices and an influx of money-lots if it foreign.

We were raised by our boomer parents to value stability and it was provided by owning your own home. What are we to do? Wait it out? Leave? All easy to say Garth when you didn’t compete against hoardes of foreign capital!

Wait- before you go to the race card! It’s tough to do that to me, given the ++melanin I have in my skin and my immigrant parents.

Oh foreign money is only 5% the studies say! Garbage in, garbage out. Did the studies capture these great ?world citizens in the recent Vancouver area news.

The guy in Richmond, who forgot to tell his local girlfriend he was married, and is now suing to get his 17 million$ back, which was to be invested in real estate. The deal? Girlfriend puts in 1k, he puts in 20 million and each have a 50% equity stake!

Or the multimillionaire textile tycoon fighting with his citizenship scammer partners over millions in Vancouver real estate. 90$ reported in Canadian income!

Or the guy in Richmond being sued for squatting in the home his foreign flight attendant girlfriend claims is hers, and he was just the local patsy used to hide from the 15% tax.

Perfect storm over the last 18 years or so. And it’s the moisters who are taking the fall for their thirst!

#141 Yorkville Renter on 01.23.18 at 11:15 pm

#134 – Carlos – Toronto is no shithole… it’s quite safe, has incredible food, the arts, pro sports and a bustling economy.

if crime is the issue, Toronto is ranked in the middle of 220+ communities: http://www.macleans.ca/canadas-most-dangerous-places/

#142 waiting on the westcoast on 01.23.18 at 11:16 pm

Garth – as entertaining as the various iterations of banned are… maybe you can just delete them without the cursory banned comment. ;-)

It was a great ride SCM!

#143 waiting on the westcoast on 01.23.18 at 11:19 pm

Mark – the market did not peak in 2013… Maybe you should watch the movie Memento.

Might explain your view of reality (not remembering how much prices have risen since 2013 (in addition to the mix factor)).

#144 Fake News Again on 01.23.18 at 11:26 pm

#122 Mark on 01.23.18 at 9:59 pm
“There are tons of safe, discreet places to park money in Canada. Vancouver is not one of them.”

Yes. That’s why the concocted meme of “Chinese” money (or alternatively, “Persian” money, “Arab” money, etc.) is so disgusting. Not only is it a complete falsehood, but it is profoundly insulting to those of those particular nationalities or ethnicities to suggest that they’re blindly piling into some of the most expensive assets in the world. Its racism of the most disgusting and divisive kind, preying on the insecurities of some Canadians, and the sheer ignorance of others as to the evolving demographic composition of Canada’s major cities.

Anyone who cares to study the statistics can see, in plain view, that there is little to no foreign participation or ‘money’ in Canada’s RE marketplace.

Hey Mark……do you LIVE in Greater Vancouver?

#145 Gravy Train on 01.23.18 at 11:29 pm

To borrow from Oscar Wilde: These millennials know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

“Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that ‘Price is what you pay; value is what you get.’ Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.” — Warren Buffett

#146 Ryan Kalt on 01.23.18 at 11:41 pm

Bang on Garth!

It’s unfortunate that common sense seems to be the characteristic that is least in favour these days.

#147 Dee on 01.23.18 at 11:45 pm

I really cant understand how prices can still be rising in vancouver. Incomes dont support it, rates rising, & credit contracting. Unless banks and lenders are still doing some shady lending.

I ruled out the foreigner argument for years but maybe i was wrong. How else can prices be increasing?

#148 Vanreal on 01.23.18 at 11:55 pm

I just don’t see Vancouver tanking. It’s in the same boat as all the other desirable cities on the pacific rim. Sydney, Auckland, Hong Kong, San Francisco LA. 5 houses on my street in east van yes east van garth have just sold for over 1.5 million and they are being demoed to rebuild brand new houses. The owners don’t seem to be foreign and they sure don’t have mortgages.

#149 Rexx Rock on 01.24.18 at 12:07 am

Wrong.Prices reflect what people can afford.Toronto,Vancouver and Victoria are very expensive but they sell because people can afford to buy that house or condo.The market will only decline when income can’t support the cost to service the mortgage to own real estate.Its all good, everybody makes easy money!

#150 Import Auto on 01.24.18 at 12:25 am

Auto sales are tanking in Vancouver, down 50%, there was a lot of money rinsing with exotics and 6 digit sales, those have vanished, started in Oct and Dec was a disaster, this month lookin like 60% down

Auto Guy

#151 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.18 at 12:32 am

@#128 Kamloops mayor
“Kamloops is the best city in Canada to live in, Toronto is a shit hole!
++++++

I didnt realize the Witness Protection Program allowed participants to become mayors.
Escaped with your life from TO did we?
Hiding in plain view. Brilliant.
But then again, no one cares what happens in Kamloops unless the dump in Cache Creek becomes full….

#152 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.18 at 12:34 am

@#125 Banned

Millenial,
Banned for what,
We know not
Or Care
Haha

haiku over

#153 Stan Brooks on 01.24.18 at 12:34 am

#39 Penny Henny on 01.23.18 at 6:41 pm

////////////////

Hey Stan. People want to know, how do you stay so positive?

Do you actually live in Canada?

——————————

No. I am just a foreigner who envies your lifestyle and your debt, specially the weather. /sarcasm off.

=======================

#83 Prairie Dawg on 01.23.18 at 8:28 pm

That is because we are very good at lying, i.e projecting positive image of a not so pleasant and rapidly deteriorating place to the world.

Have you heard of the active shooter in Toronto who shot 7 random people in Toronto including 4 years old in the span of 10 days this January?

No? I thought so.

I won’t put any value in such ratings. Countries like Austria, hell, even Slovenia and Croatia or Spain are much better to live in than North America.

I rather be a retiree there than in Canada.
The only G7 country without a drug plan for seniors.

Rich? My arse.
Stupid? O yeah!

#154 Smoking Man on 01.24.18 at 12:39 am

Purchase so legal MJ or 420 for those in the know.

Don’t try this if on a diet. But I realized something after this experiment . It’s been so obvious and never saw it.

We all want a space ship to travel to the stars. Holly crap we are on one. Not only do we orbit the Sun but the sun is moving. So is our galaxy at amazing speeds. So is the universe. Who the hell knows where it’s going.

I just realized right now, this moment in a vision you never die.

Horrifying thought.

#155 Stan Brooks on 01.24.18 at 12:49 am

#46 Penny Henny on 01.23.18 at 6:54 pm
Careful though. Stan’s world is really shitty.

———————-
It is YOUR world my friend that is shitty.

You can not see it due to the crap in your eyes, I am just washing your eyes.

But can’t you at least smell the doo doo? I guess it had not hit the fan yet for you.

#156 Fuzzy Camel on 01.24.18 at 1:37 am

Only thing that will stop this real estate bubble is a rise in interest rates in combination with a reduction in immigration. And I doubt Canada will do either.

There is a group of loonies in Toronto whose stated goal is to get Canada’s population to 100 million. Unless they unlock a ton of land around the cities, we’ll all be living in 300 sq-ft condos and riding tuk tuks like third worlders.

There is a serious shortage of housing, thanks to the Places to grow act. Basically no more non-dense subdivision homes are being built.

#157 Dolce Vita on 01.24.18 at 1:39 am

#73 Arto

It did.

2018 – 10 years = 2008.

My places list price went down 20% from January to June that year. Waited it out.

#158 Roger on 01.24.18 at 1:48 am

The prognosis for YVR in a few years is right now. Half of the entire city (West) has houses that average $5m. The other half (east) has houses that average $2m. Nothing’s changed. The show will go on over here. How many cars over 100k do you see per day in Montreal.

#159 YVr on 01.24.18 at 1:49 am

#44 Chaddywack on 01.23.18 at 6:53 pm
I just signed a 1 year lease (move out clauses are illegal now-thanks NDP!) that will convert to month to month.

My rent is about 1/3 of what a mortgage on that unit would cost me. Yes it’s in Vancouver.

I’m already “priced out forever” so why buy now :)

-> then why work and pay taxes and subsidize the non working people’s lifestyles? And to not leave your kids an inheritance means they will be paying rent their whole lives. That’s a big setback for them in a globalized world. Move if you can.

#160 Dolce Vita on 01.24.18 at 2:00 am

#82 TalkingPie

I agree, well…unless its the 15 South/North (or the 640 to escape to the 19) and you get caught in a snow dump in either. I did, many times and then I used to live in Toronto with infrequent visits for business in Montreal. Not fun.

Having said that, once you clear Laval…gorgeous, just gorgeous especially in Autumn (e.g., Lachute, Saint-André-Est, Saint-Jérôme and N. or there). Loved the cabane à sucre and Oka (cheap reserve cigarettes until the crisis back then). Same goes for the Bromont area.

Much better than Toronto commuting. They have to go up the dreaded 400 to get what Montrealer’s have in their bedroom communities.

#161 Dolce Vita on 01.24.18 at 2:08 am

#88 Howard

Billions and billions and billions of them, the extraterrestrials are in on it too:

“The population of B.C. was estimated at 4,777,157 as of January 1, 2017, growing by 3,812 persons in the last quarter of 2016 (up 0.08% from October 1, 2016).”

-BC Stats

They all want to live the life of a mushroom 8 months out of the year and pop Vitamin D pills…forever.

#162 Dolce Vita on 01.24.18 at 2:22 am

#98 Hugh Janus

Richmond is built on silt and sand.

No condo waterfront properties there after a major earthquake.

They will simply disappear into the silt and sand they are built on (a.k.a., soil liquefaction). Quick video, gets to the point after a mere 20 seconds:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMWKTuRgJjY

#163 Dolce Vita on 01.24.18 at 2:28 am

#100 Robert

If I recall, the NDP have another party they rely on to remain in Government…headed up by ahhh…what’s his name?

Oh ya:

Andrew Weaver.

Ardent supporter of RE speculators and foreigners.

How quickly they forget.

#164 Dolce Vita on 01.24.18 at 2:54 am

You sure shook the YVR RE “It’s different this time” pumpers out of the wood work today Garth.

Entertaining reading their statistically invalid observations about so and so in their buildings, AirBnB to the rescue, the foreigners to the rescue, banks make B20 work no matter what, billions wants to live in misted fern/forest mushroom/Vitamin D land, hinterland BC communities inundated by YVR RE billionaires, etc. (rule of thumb is you need a sample size of 35 observations before you can test your hypothesis for statistical validity – not a single one today yet…all heresay, but entertaining heresay nevertheless).

Then there is the “on fire” crowd that also offer no stats whatsoever and a lot of conjecture, more heresay and no numbers including those that forget the NDP are being propped up by Andrew Weaver, defender of YVR RE speculators and foreign buyers…and LNG plants.

Speaking of numbers, then there is Zolo YVR RE with a +21.2% year average price change in the past few days vs. losses ongoing for many and recent weeks (Lazarus, Phoenix) where the market volume is slightly below a year ago (seasonal low numbers) and large $ million sales in 3 Bd Condos skew the entire market average (i.e., the sales volumes are low, skew easy then where a 3 mo ago avg. price of $2 MM is $3.4 MM today)…of course and conveniently, Zolo the realty brokerage never comments.

Oh ya, Sold Listings -37%, Active Listings +8%. ON FIRE YVR RE!

…tick, tock, tick, tock.

#165 Turner around on 01.24.18 at 3:03 am

Kamloops real estate is on fire! LMFAO!!!
Kamloops is a dump, always has been and always will be!!! Same houses have been on the market forever. Place almost burned down last summer.

#166 backwardsevolution on 01.24.18 at 3:39 am

#99 Newcomer – re Chinese money – “There are tons of safe, discreet places to park money in Canada. Vancouver is not one of them.”

Yes, but they’re not just looking for a place to park their money.

They’re looking for CAPITAL APPRECIATION.

#167 backwardsevolution on 01.24.18 at 3:42 am

#100 Robert – “With NAFTA quivering and Poloz shivering, the likelihood of T2 or Horgan popping the golden goose is next to NIL. The circus continues apace.”

They’re looking for a controlled demolition, not a chaotic one. The circus is ending.

#168 backwardsevolution on 01.24.18 at 4:04 am

#122 Mark – “Anyone who cares to study the statistics can see, in plain view, that there is little to no foreign participation or ‘money’ in Canada’s RE marketplace.”

You are such a shill. Where are the statistics, Mark?

#132 Mattl – “Moisters as the driving force behind YVR RE run-up is a good laugh. As if 30 somethings making 50-70k a year are driving a city with million dollar homes. Cheap money or not the math just doesn’t work.

And Hong Kong, Van and Sydney are top three for speccers? Hmmm what do these three cities have in common.”

Exactly! Every single city that Chinese money has touched has had massive price appreciation. Follow the money.

Of course we eventually got pulled in, but only AFTER prices started to escalate. That’s when the realtors started their campaign of fear (you’ll never get in if you don’t buy now).

But the blame lies at the feet of our central banks, who were in collusion the world over: Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, Carney (both in Canada and in England), Poloz, Draghi in the E.U., Switzerland and China.

Our governments aided and abetted the fun when they continued to change the rules and made it easier for fools to chase debt.

Engineered and manufactured.

#169 Ian on 01.24.18 at 5:47 am

Oopsy, another early morning wake up treat.

Looks like Stevie M said a few things in Davos while you were sleeping about the USD!

Dollar plunges to 3-year low after Mnuchin cheers weaker greenback

http://on.mktw.net/2Gavs93

#170 Ian on 01.24.18 at 5:51 am

Gold breaks 1350 mark, now 1355 and flying!

Go rocks!!

#171 Ian on 01.24.18 at 6:03 am

Smoky, all your favourite globalists are in Davos. They didn’t send you a ticket?

Tomorrow night’s treat will be Soros telling us all societies should have open borders. I guess early onset Alzheimer’s has struck with that guy.

#172 dave in kincardine on 01.24.18 at 6:22 am

Vancouver reminds me of Bitcoin. Parabolic until it is not.

The masses see no future with AI obsoleting their careers so they desperately play last man standing wins.

Actually it is second last wins when you think about it because last man standing has a massive loss.

Is there not another way.

#173 John Doughboy on 01.24.18 at 6:23 am

#112 Evan Goldberg on 01.23.18 at 9:31 pm
#106 John Doughboy

You mean Bombardier? That’s a crown corp you know right?

So a crown corp and lots of cutting down of trees and raping the land? Very innovative!
***********
Fact check in aisle 112:

Via Rail is, Air Canada was, but Bombardier (BBD) was never a Crown Corporation.
We have so many trees that we try to prevent some of them from just falling down.
At least in Canada we only rape our land.

#174 techincal analysis? on 01.24.18 at 6:48 am

Don’t despair GOLD BUGS… the USD is in FREE FALL!!

No free fall. Exaggerate much? – Garth

#175 Andrewt on 01.24.18 at 7:30 am

The beginning of a meme?

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/volatile-housing-price-drop-1.4501010

#176 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.18 at 7:31 am

@#150 Import Auto
“Auto sales are tanking in Vancouver, down 50%, ……, started in Oct and Dec was a disaster, this month lookin like 60% down…..

++++++

Interesting,
First thing to get chopped is the expensive toys…..

#177 maxx on 01.24.18 at 7:31 am

#1 Chico on 01.23.18 at 5:26 pm

“I really that guy with the handle “banned.” He has a lot of interesting things to say. Brief, to the point, doesn’t waste a lot of words.”

It’s a misguided, agenda-driven, ageist, boomer-hating, disrespectful, cocky, flippant twit with a talent for pulling in single, often low-quality references to back up its drivel.

#178 MaxBerniersShorts on 01.24.18 at 7:31 am

Vancouver’s housing market isn’t going down anytime soon. Everyone and their dog has been saying that since the Great Recession and they’ve been wrong every time. Even if the condo market crashed 25%, you just said condo prices increased 26% last year, so basically only those who bought in 2017 would take a hit.

Math is hard. An asset that rises 26%, then falls 25% is worth less than its initial value. – Garth

#179 Howard on 01.24.18 at 7:49 am

Gold and silver breaking out but the miners are still relatively suppressed. That will not last. Time to buy.

The gold miner bull ETF HGU.TO provides good diversification in the sector. Far better than trying to pick and choose among the multitude of mining companies.

#180 Howard on 01.24.18 at 7:54 am

#170 Ian on 01.24.18 at 5:51 am

Gold breaks 1350 mark, now 1355 and flying!

Go rocks!!

——————————————

I bet its the crypto winners cashing out and moving on the PMs. Predictable that it would happen once the shrieks of “BTC to 100K by June!!” among the late-entrant bag-holders started and teenaged nerds proclaimed themselves to have a better understanding of the future of finance than all the world’s bankers.

#181 Howard on 01.24.18 at 8:01 am

#141 Yorkville Renter on 01.23.18 at 11:15 pm

#134 – Carlos – Toronto is no shithole… it’s quite safe, has incredible food, the arts, pro sports and a bustling economy.

if crime is the issue, Toronto is ranked in the middle of 220+ communities: http://www.macleans.ca/canadas-most-dangerous-places/

——————————————–

Toronto is great. The problem is the Torontonians.

#182 Cto on 01.24.18 at 8:01 am

168 backwardsevolution

It was all engineered and manufactured”

I 100% percent agree!

Globalism didn’t work out the way they were selling it.
(Lift the poor out of poverty in third world countries, replace manufacturing jobs with tech jobs here).
So they lowered interest rates to zero to make up for the shortfall….
They knew that this would create bubbles. But who cares if the rich can get richer.! I have to be honest and say that I see a lot of extremely wealthy people coming to Canada from counties that historically had, and have a lot of poverty. I grew up in a small town in Canada that has been economically ravaged, only to rely on tourism now. This country poses very little opportunity for the young people.
Globalism! Ya right! Lifting the world out of poverty!!! Whatever…

#183 re., T on 01.24.18 at 8:06 am

no , it’s not the truth. It’s YOUR truth.

just because you can’t make sense of something, and it appears grossly speculative, it doesnt mean you can’t profit from it

i have done nothing illegal or immoral. I made monies on an opportinuity. I TOOK the signficant risk. Have a good day, :)

#184 KLNR on 01.24.18 at 8:15 am

@#10 Stan Brooks on 01.23.18 at 5:38 pm
More brainwashing for the stupid sheeple.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/canada-ranks-second-best-country-195755348.html

Making you feel special as to pay the premium they require for you to live in the frozen north.

Mental facility.
___________________________
Honestly Stan, have you lived outside Cansda? (Do you even live in Canada) If you have you would know It is a fantastic place to live from coast to coast.

Toronto also ranks in the top ten for greenest city in the world – vancouver tied for second on the list.

#185 Ian on 01.24.18 at 8:21 am

Top investment song for 2018:

Sarah Cracknell, brilliant singer of St Etienne, doing “Take The Silver”:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ON-MTg5103c

Lyrics “I’ll take the silver, you take the gold”

Actually, I’ll take both! March silver up 2.23% as we speak, and gold up $16! Thank you Stevie Wonder Munchkin!

Go Great Panther Silver!! Should be up 15% today!

#186 KLNR on 01.24.18 at 8:27 am

Carlos, Howard, stan brooks, smokingman.

why so bitter all the time?
What happened to you guys in life?

#187 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 01.24.18 at 8:34 am

Its starting. Looks like homeowners who bought in new developments are seeing prices CRASHING.

Call it reverse sticker shock.

Planned homes in a new Whitby subdivision are on sale for up to $90,000 less than similar homes in the same development were a year ago.

Good news if you’re house hunting now. Bad news if you bought into the development a year ago.

“It’s painful,” Astrid Poei said in an interview.
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/volatile-housing-price-drop-1.4501010

#188 Gravy Train on 01.24.18 at 8:38 am

#178 MaxBerniersShorts on 01.24.18 at 7:31 am
“Even if the condo market crashed 25%, you just said condo prices increased 26% last year, so basically only those who bought in 2017 would take a hit.”

Math is hard. An asset that rises 26%, then falls 25% is worth less than its initial value. – Garth

Correct. More precisely, if the condo market crashes by 1/4, then it has to rebound by 1/3 to break even.

Here’s the formula: if prices fall by 1/x, then they must rise by 1/(x – 1) to break even (for x > 1).

#189 MillY on 01.24.18 at 8:45 am

Average TO condo buyer mentality:

https://www.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/7sk8yk/updated_example_of_cost_of_living_in_toronto_this/

Paying off mortgage debt is “forced savings”…LOL

#190 81 cent CAD and rising Canadian Millenial on 01.24.18 at 8:52 am

BANNED, with no further acknowledgments.

#191 IHCTD9 on 01.24.18 at 9:03 am

Maybe the quickest way to fix YVR/GTA RE prices is to treat them like I’m treating the next Federal/Provincial election. That is to encourage the activities that you want to see disappear.

How long would the market last if governments unabashedly encouraged prices to rise, and did everything in their power to pump RE to the max?

I think a few things would come to pass very quickly. All of them bad mind you, but that is good. (if you know what I mean).

#192 Damifino on 01.24.18 at 9:07 am

#187 Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

Hey, thanks for the link! It represents a masterclass in greater fool lament. Here’s the topper…

“The new purchasers are standing on our shoulders. Let’s respect the Phase 1 buyers who took a leap of faith when this was just dirt,”

(BTW, it’s still dirt)

#193 Big Steve on 01.24.18 at 9:08 am

Rates cannot be raised too quickly too much eh. Need to support the housing, it’s all we’s gots ya know!

@John Doughboy

Bombardier is a crown corp bud, one bailout after another of taxpayer money to support a failing company and their permanently behind schedule planes and trains. Sad really.

Hey how is Nortel doing? What about Blackberry LOL!

#194 Damifino on 01.24.18 at 9:11 am

#184 KLNR

Toronto also ranks in the top ten for greenest city in the world – vancouver tied for second on the list.
————————

Vancouver is still the greediest.

#195 foursight on 01.24.18 at 9:14 am

prepare. in the not so distant future vancouver will be the next atlantis. prepare

#196 Bitcoinnaire on 01.24.18 at 9:21 am

@Garth

>How about Bitcoin deflation? The moister way of losing 50% of your capital in a month. Too funny.

Bitcoin is deflationary by design. Meaning, simply holding the tokens, you’ll see an escalation of their value as the supply side is fixed (80% of the approx. 21 million Bitcoins have already been mined).

Imagine if it was announced that global gold exploration and mining were depleted to exhaustion or that the printing presses of the Federal Reserve were to cease operation permanently (or simply caught fire for their furious pace of work trying to inflate equity markets for the past decade).

Bitcoin is a sinkhole for the money most of its adherents cannot afford to lose. Wake up. – Garth

#197 chopstix on 01.24.18 at 9:30 am

dolce vita? your notion that BC Greens party leader andrew weaver supports foreign buyers in Van? are you being ironic or sarcastic? if anything it’s just the opposite: he wants a ban on foreign buyers.

#198 dharma bum on 01.24.18 at 9:30 am

This post was great.
A real good old fashioned Greater Fool blog post that lives up to its namesake.
For many many years now, there seems to have been more and more greater fools to save the asses of the fools preceding them.
We have all been chomping at the bit in anticipation of the the arrival of the greater fool who will be left holding the bag.
Year after year it seems like “this is going to be it”.
So far, however, the music keeps playing.
Could this be the year?
We’ll see.
Stay tuned, dogs.

#199 Ian on 01.24.18 at 9:37 am

#196 Bitcoinaire

Bre-X also had a limited number of shares. That is literally the dumbest of all bull arguments on cryptos.

Get rid of your crypto digital toilet paper and buy precious metals.

I’m gold Goldmoney is accepting Bitcoin. Send them a transfer today.

#200 I'm stupid on 01.24.18 at 9:46 am

#187 happy housing crash everyone

I guess it’s fitting to use the media to cry about a loss in housing value. Why should anyone feel pity? In every transaction there’s a winner and a loser. These people entered into a contract in less than 5 min and thought nothing could go wrong.

#201 AutoAnalyst on 01.24.18 at 9:48 am

@#150 Import Auto
“Auto sales are tanking in Vancouver, down 50%, ……, started in Oct and Dec was a disaster, this month lookin like 60% down…..

++++++

Interesting,
First thing to get chopped is the expensive toys…..
———–
Not true.
Looking at numbers for about 20 of the major manufacturers, December 2017 is down about 5% in Vancouver compared to 2016. The market as a whole was down 6.6% in December, so Vancouver is actually doing slightly better than the country overall.

#202 Smoking Man on 01.24.18 at 9:53 am

#190 81 cent CAD and rising Canadian Millenial on 01.24.18 at 8:52 am
BANNED, with no further acknowledgments
……

Garth is giving you a free lesson on communism. Free speech is the first thing to go. See how that drives you nuts.
How do you think conservative modorate voices feel when they are getting silenced by Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook.

Extreme voices weather ying or yang should not be tolerated.

Chill out.

#203 Ronaldo on 01.24.18 at 9:54 am

#179 Howard on 01.24.18 at 7:49 am

Gold and silver breaking out but the miners are still relatively suppressed. That will not last. Time to buy.

The gold miner bull ETF HGU.TO provides good diversification in the sector. Far better than trying to pick and choose among the multitude of mining companies.
————————————————————–
Or you could try HEP, far less volatile and spits out a nice dividend of around 7% at the moment. Have owned it since Dec. 2015 and up about 35% since then.

#204 Smoking Man on 01.24.18 at 9:56 am

#171 Ian on 01.24.18 at 6:03 am
Smoky, all your favourite globalists are in Davos. They didn’t send you a ticket?

Tomorrow night’s treat will be Soros telling us all societies should have open borders. I guess early onset Alzheimer’s has struck with that guy.
……
Nope never made the invite list.

You really need to listen to T2 speech there yesterday. His winks to people in the crowed. Canada is toast.

#205 Tater on 01.24.18 at 9:56 am

#98 Hugh Janus on 01.23.18 at 8:47 pm
Vancouver is screwed. If a 30% haircut doesnt simmer that market then at some point a 7.8 shaking on the richter scale will. Richmond condos will all be waterfront.

Never a better time to hit xrp. Prices are low and opportunity knocks. Many good buys out there on others too.

Could you imagine being a banker right now? They must be bringing a lot of clean clothes to work each day as they realise that crypto is seeping in and displacing the scourge of fiat money that only has central banker lies behind it for its value. They must crap themselvez 10 times per day knowing you cant stop crypto. All the bankers can do is fire up those presses and make fiat less valuable.

In the meantime make some crypto moves while its down. Conservative estimates are bitcoin at 100 000 by june….
—————————————————————–
Former bank guy here, now in the payments and FX area. Cryptos don’t concern me at all. Bitcoin can handle 4 transactions per second and Visa can do 50k. So, it’s not a payments platform. Store of value? Not with this volatility. And if you think governments will allow a system to develop that makes terrorist financing, money laundering, and other undesirable behaviors easy, you’ve never dealt with someone from OFAC or FINTRAC.

As for the rest of them, well they seem to be solutions to problems almost no-one has.

#206 Ronaldo on 01.24.18 at 9:59 am

#185 Ian on 01.24.18 at 8:21 am

Go Great Panther Silver!! Should be up 15% today!
——————————————————————
My fav. Have plenty of it.

Silver has brought many more tears than gold. – Garth

#207 millmech on 01.24.18 at 10:04 am

#196
I was under the impression that each individual coin could be broken down into one hundred-millionth(.00000001) of a coin, so in reality there are much more than 21 million bitcoins, correct am I not? I do not understand it so I will not invest in it.

What I do understand is that bitcoin exchanges are making billions from the transactions and the smart money would be made there. Set up an exchange and charge the going rate. With the volatility of the coin. I would wonder if the coin was not designed to do just that.
Remember all the money made on Wall Street is made by the brokers, all the people actually owning the products not so much. It is in their interest to have volatility to create profit for them and if the commodity goes to zero, they do not worry as they had no skin in the game.

#208 Dogman01 on 01.24.18 at 10:08 am

I am pretty sure I have heard this line of reasoning somewhere before……can’t quite put my finger on where, some time ago I recall.

—————————————————————-
“Past returns are no guarantee of future returns. A cold, hard look at the numbers reveals how the scales of risk and reward can tilt in a different direction. It may run counter to conventional wisdom — the orthodoxy of ownership promulgated by governments, banks and realtors. It may prompt disapproving sighs from family members. It may even bring Tinder dates to an abrupt end.

But let’s explore the reasons you maybe, just maybe, might want to rent.

Some quick numbers
It all comes down to math.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-rent-vs-buy-road-ahead-1.4490332?cmp=rss

#209 Smoking Man on 01.24.18 at 10:11 am

The reason USD is crashing. Because Trump wants it to.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-24/dollar-tumbles-after-mnuchin-endorses-weaker-currency-ross-speaks-trade-wars

#210 Ronaldo on 01.24.18 at 10:20 am

#206 Ronaldo on 01.24.18 at 9:59 am

#185 Ian on 01.24.18 at 8:21 am

Go Great Panther Silver!! Should be up 15% today!
——————————————————————
My fav. Have plenty of it.

Silver has brought many more tears than gold. – Garth
—————————————————————-
Am sure it has, as have many other things. For myself, it has been just fine. Buy low, sell high.

#211 Smoking Man on 01.24.18 at 10:26 am

Opening speech at Davos

The summit opened with a speech from Narendra Modi, in which he identified climate change as the number one threat to civilisation, and called for more wealth transfers from rich countries in order to help poorer nations “adopt appropriate technologies” for reducing climate emissions.

As you can see. It’s all about the money
Make no mistake T2 is going to put a mortgage on your kids, great grand kids. Their Grandkids because he’s a clueless idiot.

#212 Tater on 01.24.18 at 10:29 am

#166 backwardsevolution on 01.24.18 at 3:39 am
#99 Newcomer – re Chinese money – “There are tons of safe, discreet places to park money in Canada. Vancouver is not one of them.”

Yes, but they’re not just looking for a place to park their money.

They’re looking for CAPITAL APPRECIATION.
—————————————————————–

As someone who has worked with UHNW’s in China, no, they aren’t. Their goal is to get money outside of the country where the chance of confiscation is lower. If they buy an asset that appreciates, that’s a bonus. But far more important is that the funds can’t be found.

#213 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.24.18 at 10:35 am

@Banned and Screwed Canadian Millennial

Since I know you’re still reading here, I have a little advice for you.

You seem to want to be heard. I suggest that you open your own blog (WordPress has options), then you can type away to your hearts content. Call it The Screwed Millennial Blog.

Know your audience. They ain’t here.

#214 Another Deckchair on 01.24.18 at 10:43 am

To those who are BANNED, or think Garth is “too strict”:

Start your own blog.

It’s really simple.

One way is to go to blogger.google.com and follow the instructions.

There is no stopping you – so just do it, and let Garth run HIS blog the way HE wants to.

I’d think that any millennial (note the correct spelling) would be able to figure out how to do this, if this boomer could.

#215 still learning on 01.24.18 at 10:46 am

Well I have to agree with backwards evolution. I like everything on this blog except for this notion that foreign money is not affecting van. That is simply not the truth. There are not transparent stats because no one wants the real truth of it to be revealed lest the gravy train stops.

We live in Marpole. It’s like looking up and seeing a blue sky, and then someone saying NO NO, the sky is NOT blue….

#216 IHCTD9 on 01.24.18 at 10:48 am

#190 81 cent CAD and rising Canadian Millenial on 01.24.18 at 8:52 am

BANNED, with no further acknowledgments.
_____________________________

LOL @ trying to comment through her user name.

#217 John Doughboy on 01.24.18 at 11:07 am

#193 Big Steve on 01.24.18 at 9:08 am
….. @John Doughboy

Bombardier is a crown corp bud, one bailout after another of taxpayer money to support a failing company and their permanently behind schedule planes and trains. Sad really.
Hey how is Nortel doing? What about Blackberry LOL!
************

I didn’t say it was a good investment, just that it isn’t a Crown Corp. Sure, lots of dogs on the TSX, but the NYSE’s bite can be worse than its bark (Savings and Loans, too big to fail Banks ;-), and don’t get me started on Nasdaq’s dot anythings.

Investing wisely requires facts not fiction. We get enough of that on BNN. Keep Gerta’s site pure.

#218 technical analysis? on 01.24.18 at 11:07 am

#209 Smoking Man on 01.24.18 at 10:11 am

The reason USD is crashing. Because Trump wants it to.
_________________________________________

only bankrupt nations want weak currencies. Trump has no choice but to let the dollar collapse.

It’s not collapsing. Get over your own agenda. A lower currency is trade-beneficial. – Garth

#219 TurnerNation on 01.24.18 at 11:15 am

In Soviet Kanada house own you.

Lifetime of debt slavery:

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/volatile-housing-price-drop-1.4501010

“Poei and Fisher say they were “shocked” to find out that homes and lots very similar to the one they purchased are now on sale for $75,000 less than what they paid.”

#220 Stone on 01.24.18 at 11:17 am

#102 Bitcoinnaire on 01.23.18 at 8:59 pm

You think your government tokens are more valuable because there’s a conscript army enforcing their value?

——-

One word: Yes.

#221 Ian on 01.24.18 at 11:24 am

Think of all the wifi bandwidth McDonald’s is saving given SCM cannot post on here anymore LMAO!

#222 GARY SMITH on 01.24.18 at 11:33 am

#150 Import Auto on 01.24.18 at 12:25 am
Auto sales are tanking in Vancouver, down 50%, there was a lot of money rinsing with exotics and 6 digit sales, those have vanished, started in Oct and Dec was a disaster, this month lookin like 60% down

Auto Guy

————————————————————–

Come with some supporting numbers or facts.

I agree there are some canaries in the coal mines- and auto loans and sales are one of them.

Stats Canada figures to November 2017 show about a 1% decline in auto sales, year to year comparison.

One number doesn’t make a trend. Yet.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/econ58a-eng.htm

#223 Whistler wannabe on 01.24.18 at 11:33 am

Prices in whistler are still going crazily up and everything is selling. After having rented there for 2 years I can tell you that the houses are being bought by people who have worked in tax free havens like Hong Kong for years (brits, US, etc) and can pay 4M cash for a place. No chance of Canadians owning there. Rents are now crazy – upward of $5k for a 3 bedroom so so house. Where does this place fit into your calculations?

#224 Simple Fix on 01.24.18 at 11:43 am

Simple. Ban all foreign home ownership in Canada.

#225 BC guy on 01.24.18 at 12:05 pm

My sleepy little town of Port Alberni Vancouver Island BC where a 1200 sqft house even a year ago could be had in the $200K range is being bought up. Largest city outside of Victoria being Nanaimo is very poplular with Beijing buyers. Well, the history of this country is colonization ..so it continues.

#226 People are Strange on 01.24.18 at 12:22 pm

#184 KLNR

Greenest and Greediest!!! Lets be truthful.

#227 Stan Brooks on 01.24.18 at 12:24 pm

#184 KLNR on 01.24.18 at 8:15 am

Honestly Stan, have you lived outside Canada? (Do you even live in Canada) If you have you would know It is a fantastic place to live from coast to coast.

Toronto also ranks in the top ten for greenest city in the world – vancouver tied for second on the list.

———————-

It sure used to be.

Toronto waterfront revitalization is not that bad/around Queens Quay/Amsterdam Brewery, the new RBC building/with fantastic view from the last floor, if you can get there – hint, you can not/controlled access.

But horrible traffic/in 2007 it used to be the city with the longest commute to work and it is getting worse every year.

Try to drive on any street between Bayview/Yonge/Leslie/Bathurts in the core of North York in rush our.

Bumper to bumper for hours.
How about 401 between Mississauga and Toronto?
Hell, it is busy even going to Waterloo.

Not to mention the idiot truck drives/not a profession but diagnoses in Canada.

Besides that, absolutely nothing to do in your free time/if you have any – i.e. not a debt mortgage slave.

Every single person out of town (New York, London England, Australia, San Francisco).

I have seen says nice things but gets bored pretty soon as there is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO besides bars in your leisure time. What do you do on the weekends besides cutting the grass in the summer and joining the herd stampede at the malls in the winter?

Going to the cottage? Give me a break.
Even S. St Marie is better in terms of cottage/environment.

How many times have you been to a Leafs/Raptors game?

———————

I have traveled extensively and in my mind there are not many worse for living overall (including cost) places in the world than GTA.

Even London UK is much, much better place.
Ever been to an Arsenal Game in London?

It costs 20 % of a raptors ticket in Toronto.

Spain for example, specially Barcelona is 10 times more livable – weather cost, stuff to do outside paying the mortgage.

In GTA what you do pretty much is work and pay the mortgage. Period.
Live to work.

—————————

#186 KLNR on 01.24.18 at 8:27 am
Carlos, Howard, stan brooks, smokingman.

why so bitter all the time?
What happened to you guys in life?

Hate hypocrisy, feel good/lies and political correctness.
and awful weather/specially that humidity.

#228 LivinLarge on 01.24.18 at 12:24 pm

Rexx:”The market will only decline when income can’t support the cost to service the mortgage to own real estate.”…or they “won’t” afford it. In a perfect world eveyone would have equal opportunity and simple budget math would determine if someone buys RE. Alas, that isn’t the way it works out. People will continue to buy RE, especially if principal residences, because there is much more involved in their decision process than basic budget math. There are just sooooo many ways to rationalize buying a principal residence and sooo many more ways to come up with the monthly payment too.

As long as buyers “feel” they can afford it and as long as there are lenders prepared to write the paper people will dig themselves into financial holes expecting the future to be more rosy than today.

“I love mankind, it’s people I can’t stand”—- Linus van Pelt.

#229 IHCTD9 on 01.24.18 at 12:27 pm

#211 Smoking Man on 01.24.18 at 10:26 am

…As you can see. It’s all about the money.

___________________________________

Lots of folks over complicate things.

Money is the answer to some of life’s most debated questions.

Everyone wants to virtue signal a higher purpose, but I say Nay!: it is indeed almost always about the money.

#230 Steven Rowlandson on 01.24.18 at 12:31 pm

“Flip city”

Isn’t that every town and city in Canada?

#231 Tony on 01.24.18 at 12:31 pm

Re: #210 Ronaldo on 01.24.18 at 10:20 am

Silver only has a billion and a half market cap meaning it’s very easy to manipulate. Should the dollar index in America keep on falling they may “lose the gold market” and I’d be betting the gold to silver ratio will go a lot higher and will top the 100 level.

#232 Stan Brooks on 01.24.18 at 12:32 pm

#184 KLNR on 01.24.18 at 8:15 am

Don’t get me wrong, I admire the skills required and the ability so sell shacks in sh..tty working/no lifestyle city for millions to greater fools but besides that…

It is pathetic looking from the outside. Absolutely pathetic.

#233 Ezzy on 01.24.18 at 12:33 pm

The more I read of Garth’s blogs and the ensuing comments the more I am grateful I never bothered with a mortgage.

#234 Musty Basement Dweller on 01.24.18 at 12:37 pm

Good to see young people doing the math on what housing purchases actually cost. In the attached link.http://www.cbc.ca/1.4490332

#235 Babou on 01.24.18 at 12:47 pm

Interesting article in the courier sheds some light on how people in Vancouver are able to continue to buy at such high prices- here are some of the points:

– 70% of buyers are not first time buyers, so likely have large down payments/equity from previous home
– 50 percent of people who own have no mortgage. Either they are loaded and bought their places outright or have owned their houses a very long time.
– the average size of new mortgages in 2016 was $460K, at a time when the average home price was a million.
– at price per sq foot Van is still a lot cheaper than many other cities

Here’s the link:
http://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/opinion-let-s-get-real-on-real-estate-affordability-studies-1.23152640

#236 Mike in Edm on 01.24.18 at 1:02 pm

#207 millmech on 01.24.18 at 10:04 am
#196
I was under the impression that each individual coin could be broken down into one hundred-millionth(.00000001) of a coin, so in reality there are much more than 21 million bitcoins, correct am I not?
********************
No, you’re not. what you’re saying is the equivalent of cutting up a $1usd bill into a million pieces and saying you have $1million.

You can buy a fraction of a bitcoin, but at the end of the day, there’s still only going to be 21million bitcoins ever, and currently 16.824million have been ‘mined’

#237 Whitby new home price drop on 01.24.18 at 1:16 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/volatile-housing-price-drop-1.4501010

Ouch! Like buying bre-x stock at the top lol

#238 Bitcoinnaire on 01.24.18 at 1:16 pm

@102, T

>The value is where? Everyone knows the spiel you are spouting, none of it relates to value.

The value is in the technology. In order to understand the value, one has to understand the technology. An autonomous piece of code that uses cryptography to transmit and interrogate transactions WITHOUT a central authority, like a bank, or a company, or a government, to mediate them, is revolutionary. Just ask anyone in the payment remittance business, like the people at Square Inc. or SWIFT. As a fossilized remnant of the steam age, you may have run into those two in your daily affairs.

@199, Ian

>Bre-X also had a limited number of shares. That is literally the dumbest of all bull arguments on cryptos.

Except that Bre-X was a case of brazen fraud. Another fabulous argument in support of trust-less blockchain technology and the inherent danger of buying into “legacy” asset classes like opaque, shady private enterprise and their colourful accounting practices and the paralyzing ignorance/malfeasance of regulatory bodies.

Where’s the analogy?

@Garth

>Bitcoin is a sinkhole for the money most of its adherents cannot afford to lose. Wake up.

It’s a speculative investment, like buying into pioneering start-ups creating entirely new markets, littered with small players, of whom only a few will emerge with ACTUAL revenue and businesses. The volatility in Crypto right now is institutions and retail investors positioning themselves to find the clear winners that will emerge with real businesses. We’re still at the prototype stage for most of this technology.

And I should clarify, when I say “Bitcoin”, I’m generally referring to the entire crypto market. Myself, I have not held Bitcoin since early 2014. I’ve made my fortune on Ethereum and other niche tokens which improve substantially on Bitcoin.

I’m almost certain Bitcoin will not be the way of the future. It is already bottle-necked, slow and expensive in its original purpose. But for those that can read and understand javascript and other programming languages, there are some truly amazing entities out there now with almost limit-less upside if one can understand where their utility lies.

Garth, I don’t know why you rag on Bitcoin when your entire philosophy is about capital preservation… One needs capital in the first place, and your young readers aren’t going to secure more than an alternative to CPP if they ONLY limit themselves to a balanced and mediocre indexed approach.

I’m a liquid multi-millionaire thanks to crypto, and I’m not yet 30. Yes, thanks to crypto, I can afford to follow your advice on capital preservation, but you insulted me when I offered you business, so I’ll be talking to some private hedge fund to grow my money.

The world belongs to those who understand it.

Don’t let the door hit you on the way out. – Garth

#239 Old Ron the Realtor on 01.24.18 at 1:21 pm

Mortgage Rate for fixed 5 year is 3.44% today.

That is your story.

$500,000 costs less than $2,500.00 a month.

Rates will have to climb 250 basis points (+2.5%) before we see a real housing bear market.

And that is not going to happen.

#240 T on 01.24.18 at 1:22 pm

#183 re., T on 01.24.18 at 8:06 am
no , it’s not the truth. It’s YOUR truth.

just because you can’t make sense of something, and it appears grossly speculative, it doesnt mean you can’t profit from it

i have done nothing illegal or immoral. I made monies on an opportinuity. I TOOK the signficant risk. Have a good day, :)

——————

Again, try being construction and attack the arguments. You are just repeating the same lame “I’m a winner, you’re an idiot” nonsense for your single weed stock win like you are some kind of investing genius. The people I know who jumped into weed stocks are the biggest potheads I know – I imagine you probably are as well. So I shouldn’t expect you to be able to have an intellectual debate about anything.

You took a risk, not a significant one. Nothing special to see here. If you want to take a risk, invest in canopy now. Which is the point. Investing in them now is throwing your money away. Down 5% so far today alone.

And I never mentioned anything about morality. No idea where you got that from. Stoned much?

#241 KLNR on 01.24.18 at 1:26 pm

@#226 People are Strange on 01.24.18 at 12:22 pm
#184 KLNR

Greenest and Greediest!!! Lets be truthful.

______________________

not everybody here is realtor. sheesh.

#242 jess on 01.24.18 at 1:28 pm

45 Adrian on 01.23.18 at 6:54 pm
thankyou for that link

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-most-important-economic-charts-to-watch-in-2018/#scottbarlow
how much the recent equity rallies have depended on central bank monetary stimulus?

====
August 15, 2017
https://www.ft.com/content/ae19e60e-81b0-11e7-94e2-c5b903247afd
Central banks hold a fifth of their governments’ debt
Scale of challenge becomes clear as policymakers face unwinding assets after decade of stimulus.
dec 2017
assets relative to gross domestic product
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-07/the-risks-in-central-bank-balance-sheets-is-clear-mark-grant

off-balance-sheet companies are actually related parties.
citing a criminal and tax investigation in Germany that dates back to 2015.
Steinhoff International Holdings
https://www.biznews.com/global-investing/2017/12/06/steinhoff-ceo-marcus-jooste-quits/

Short Seller Who Flagged Steinhoff Oddities Steps Forward
By Anders Melin and Greg Farrell
January 18, 2018, 12:00 AM EST Updated on January 18, 2018, 9:11 AM EST

Big U.S. banks disclosed more than $1 billion of loan losses
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-18/short-seller-who-flagged-steinhoff-irregularities-steps-forward

#243 HowDeepThePain? on 01.24.18 at 1:36 pm

#175 Andrewt on 01.24.18 at 7:30 am
The beginning of a meme?
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/volatile-housing-price-drop-1.4501010

Equivalent to a down round of financing, that can’t be good…that should wake some deniers up!

#244 For those about to flop... on 01.24.18 at 1:38 pm

Fresh off the press…

M43BC

“Mapping Out The World’s Bitcoin ATMs.

Bitcoin ATMs allow consumers to exchange their cash for Bitcoins, and vice versa. Although the Bitcoin machines are not ATMs in the more traditional sense that we are accustomed, these kiosks are connected to the internet in order to accept cash deposit, exchange for Bitcoins or send Bitcoin to a public key on the blockchain. However, fees to using Bitcoin ATMs are known for being excessive. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) says that “they may also charge high transaction fees – media reports describe transaction fees as high as 7% and exchange rates $50 over rates you could get elsewhere.” However, the high fees have not slowed the growth of crypto kiosks popping up around the world. We decided to take a deeper look into the world’s Bitcoin ATM supply.

We gathered our data primarily from Coin ATM Radar and Bitnews Today. Using circle sizes, we mapped out geographical locations where Bitcoin ATMs are in operation. The larger the size of the circle, the greater total number of Bitcoin ATMs there are within the country. In addition, we used a light-to-dark color scheme in order to measure the ratio of Bitcoin ATMs to population. The smaller the circle, the fewer number of Bitcoin ATMs per 1 million people. On the other hand, the darker Bitcoin logos represent the greater number of Bitcoin ATMs available per million individuals.

U.S. Has Greatest Number Of Bitcoin ATMs, Austria Has Largest Concentration
According the visual, the United States is home to greatest number of Bitcoin ATMs with 1,330 machines. However, Austria has the greatest concentration of Bitcoin ATMs per million people, which makes the country have some of the greatest accessibility to crypto funds in the world. With that said, North America dominates the Bitcoin ATM market, which accounts for 76.10% of the world’s cryptocurrency machines. Europe is home to the second most Bitcoin ATMs in the world with 18.80% of the total market. As Asian governments have continued to crackdown on cryptocurrency with imposing bans or strict regulations, the continent has fallen to the third largest region with 2.50% of the Bitcoin ATM market.

Making up the bottom half of the Bitcoin ATM market is Australia, Central & South America, and Africa. Australia accounts for 1.20% and Central & South America make up 1.30% of the world’s operational Bitcoin ATMs. While Africa has essentially no Bitcoin ATM coverage, with a meager 0.05% thanks to one machine located in Nigeria.

In the future, Africa will likely adopt Bitcoin ATMs as the continent further discovers the potential benefits that could help unlock economic growth. Cryptocurrency still remains in its early stages and it will likely take some more time before we start seeing further growth in the number of Bitcoin ATMs within the region.

Here is a breakdown of the chart, based on each continent’s percentage of the world’s Bitcoin ATM market share:

1. North America: 76.10%

2. Europe: 18.80%

3. Asia 2.50%

4. Central & South America 1.30%

5. Australia 1.20%

6. Africa 0.05%

Overall, the total number of Bitcoin ATMs doubled in 2017. As of the end of 2017, there were more than 2,000 operational machines across sixty countries. On average, there were five new cryptocurrency ATMs installed each day last year. While the United States may have the most Bitcoin ATMs, Austrians that have the greatest access to these crypto machines. By having the greatest concentration of crypto ATM machines, Austria serves as a stand-out model on how to increase adoption and accessibility to cryptocurrency funds. ”

https://howmuch.net/articles/bitcoin-atm-around-the-world

#245 Stan Brooks on 01.24.18 at 1:39 pm

Dalio Says Bonds Face Biggest Bear Market in Almost 40 Years

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-24/billionaire-dalio-says-bond-market-has-moved-into-bear-phase

As I/and Ray Dalio, the world biggest hedge fund manager with over 160 billion under management/ said: all in in stocks.

Stay away from bonds, specialy sh..ty bonds.

He also says that the top 40 % – investors will do well in the downturn that imminently will follow due to imminent interest rates increases. while the bottom 60 % who depend on labour/debt slaves will do very poorly.

So you have your time-frame on the inflationary depression coming to Canada: 2-3 years.

As we are by far over-leveraged/in debt and have one of worst performing markets due to the same reason we could be hit very badly.

#246 KLNR on 01.24.18 at 1:43 pm

@#227 Stan Brooks on 01.24.18 at 12:24 pm
#184 KLNR on 01.24.18 at 8:15 am

Honestly Stan, have you lived outside Canada? (Do you even live in Canada) If you have you would know It is a fantastic place to live from coast to coast.

Toronto also ranks in the top ten for greenest city in the world – vancouver tied for second on the list.
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It sure used to be.

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no doubt stan, commuting into Toronto isn’t something I’d want to do either. ditto for the other big cities. you have to pay a toll in London.
I moved here from rural ontario 20 yrs ago for work. Glad I did, City keeps getting better and better (except for the ever expanding price of leafs tix)
Tons to do – I live right between highpark and the humber, both amazing places. play shinny on the outdoor rink in HP sometimes over at trinity bellwoods as well, kayak on the humber lots of trails for walking the dog etc. if you’re so inclined theres top notch restaraunts/bars/clubs. It’s a city of nieghbourhoods with really nice folks – atleast the ones i’ve met over the past 20yrs. Having said all that if I were just starting out in life I’d probably look to Halifax or maybe Ottawa to live. It can be expensive here if you’re not already established. Still doesn’t mean it isn’t a great place.

#247 T on 01.24.18 at 1:47 pm

#196 Bitcoinnaire on 01.24.18 at 9:21 am
@Garth

>How about Bitcoin deflation? The moister way of losing 50% of your capital in a month. Too funny.

Bitcoin is deflationary by design. Meaning, simply holding the tokens, you’ll see an escalation of their value as the supply side is fixed (80% of the approx. 21 million Bitcoins have already been mined.

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There is an infinite number of crypto coins which can come into existence – each with it own algorithm and limits. So while yes, bitcoin has a coded limit it is by no means unique in a sea of crypto. Therefore the supply side is not limited.

#248 Howard on 01.24.18 at 1:48 pm

#225 BC guy on 01.24.18 at 12:05 pm
My sleepy little town of Port Alberni Vancouver Island BC where a 1200 sqft house even a year ago could be had in the $200K range is being bought up. Largest city outside of Victoria being Nanaimo is very poplular with Beijing buyers. Well, the history of this country is colonization ..so it continues.

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Gawd, BC is one huge steaming turdstorm.

If I cared about the place and wanted to move there I’d be frustrated and anxious. Since I don’t much care, I simply look on in fascination as they acquiesce to foreign zillionaires and turn their province into a massive luxury resort. If this were to happen in Nova Scotia I doubt the citizens would simply lie there and take it.

#249 technical analysis? on 01.24.18 at 2:13 pm

It’s not collapsing. Get over your own agenda. A lower currency is trade-beneficial. – Garth
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a falling currency never solved trade problems. the USD Collapsed from 2000 to 2008 and the US Trade deficit ballooned from $30B monthly to $60B monthly.

it’s going to collapse again, and the trade deficit is going to explode again.

the US is broke. a lower currency is inflationary. that’s all they have left to get out of their debts.

#250 Mark on 01.24.18 at 3:00 pm

“Simple. Ban all foreign home ownership in Canada.”

Wouldn’t have any impact, and since overseas nations are likely to do something similar in reciprocity, the money flowing back to Canada from, say, Florida or other popular countries in which Canadians own RE, to buy RE in Canada would easily overwhelm the small number of foreign owners who would be forced to sell.

Policy makers can get rid of Canada’s RE bubble by tightening up credit, and that’s exactly what Flaherty (RIP) did when he started the process of cracking down on the CMHC’s subprime mortgage insurance in Budget 2013. The Tories, and now the Liberals have continued to follow suit and have built upon Flaherty’s framework for crushing housing speculation. 2013 thus marked the peak of the Canadian housing market.

#251 Rexx Rock on 01.24.18 at 3:40 pm

Ok ,here’s whats up.The goverment and the bank wants you to own real estate.They both make big money every year.Ever wonder why there is hardly any subsidized or affordable housing.Huge waiting list for a co op or subsidized housing.They make it not feasible for deveopers for building rental housing.High immigration to feed the machine.Not to mention lax money laundering laws.They hate renters and will do every thing possible to make renters be punished for not paying the man.

#252 Nik on 01.24.18 at 4:25 pm

# 250 Mark

2013 thus marked the peak of the Canadian housing market.
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Did you mean 2017? if not, its time to crawl out from under the rock and catch up on everything you have missed.

#253 TheDood on 01.24.18 at 4:28 pm

#239 Old Ron the Realtor on 01.24.18 at 1:21 pm
Mortgage Rate for fixed 5 year is 3.44% today.
That is your story.
$500,000 costs less than $2,500.00 a month.
Rates will have to climb 250 basis points (+2.5%) before we see a real housing bear market.

And that is not going to happen.
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Wanna bet?

Rates are going to climb continuously until the debt lessons so badly needed in this country have been learned.

I saw the perfect quote in yesterday’s comments ‘The beatings will continue until morale improves’. Am still laughing!

#254 Smoking Man on 01.24.18 at 5:04 pm

Nice going T2 and Wynee

Campbell Soup Company announces closure of Toronto plant, 380 manufacturing jobs will be lost moving to South Carolina

#255 Stan Brooks on 01.24.18 at 5:07 pm

Here is what leaders do.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-24/france-s-macron-tells-davos-elite-they-need-to-share-the-wealth

Don’t expect the ethically challenged T2 and will bill to come back and reverse their assault on small businesses, specially in technology.

But hey, T2 has better socks and a younger wife!
True Canadian values indeed!

#256 T on 01.24.18 at 5:26 pm

#236 Mike in Edm on 01.24.18 at 1:02 pm
#207 millmech on 01.24.18 at 10:04 am
#196
I was under the impression that each individual coin could be broken down into one hundred-millionth(.00000001) of a coin, so in reality there are much more than 21 million bitcoins, correct am I not?
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No, you’re not. what you’re saying is the equivalent of cutting up a $1usd bill into a million pieces and saying you have $1million.

You can buy a fraction of a bitcoin, but at the end of the day, there’s still only going to be 21million bitcoins ever, and currently 16.824million have been ‘mined’

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Actually he is correct.

“The satoshi is currently the smallest unit of the bitcoin currency recorded on the block chain.[1] It is a one hundred millionth of a single bitcoin (0.00000001 BTC).”

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Satoshi_(unit)

#257 Newcomer on 01.24.18 at 5:42 pm

A lower currency is trade-beneficial. – Garth
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This is something Canadians never get. Everyone bitches and moans when the Looney goes down, but there is nothing better for the economy.

#258 T on 01.24.18 at 5:46 pm

#238 Bitcoinnaire on 01.24.18 at 1:16 pm
@102, T

>The value is where? Everyone knows the spiel you are spouting, none of it relates to value.

The value is in the technology. In order to understand the value, one has to understand the technology. An autonomous piece of code that uses cryptography to transmit and interrogate transactions WITHOUT a central authority, like a bank, or a company, or a government, to mediate them, is revolutionary. Just ask anyone in the payment remittance business, like the people at Square Inc. or SWIFT. As a fossilized remnant of the steam age, you may have run into those two in your daily affairs.

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Or ask Stripe, a major payment processor, whom are abandoning crypto.

Look, you are blowing smoke at the wrong person. You likely don’t understand the fundamental technology and code which powers most crypto.

https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin

Download the bitcoin source yourself, if you can read it. I can – I’ve coded more complicated systems myself and ran and sold them for real cash – which is invested in nice balanced portfolio. I’m only older than you by a few years. Not a fossil but nice try at a belligerent comment. We are from the same generation.

There is little value in something anyone can do, easily. Even less if there is no proprietary assets.

If you are a real crypto millionaire after cashing out and paying all taxes on your trades, congrats! A once in a lifetime opportunity for sure. You won’t see that again with cryptos.

#259 Newcomer on 01.24.18 at 5:57 pm

#223 Whistler wannabe on 01.24.18 at 11:33 am
…. Rents are now crazy – upward of $5k for a 3 bedroom so so house. Where does this place fit into your calculations?
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I guess you must have heard that from your friends. Other than vacation rentals, I can’t find a single 3 brm place in Squamish asking upward of $5K, though there are plenty in the two to three range. If you want to understand what is going on, you’ve got to take the time to look up the data.
http://tinyurl.com/ybjerrlw

#260 Kieran McCabe on 01.24.18 at 7:39 pm

Interest rates rise much more and Canada goes bust haahah I’ll be laughing like a banshee

#261 Josh on 01.24.18 at 10:03 pm

I live in small town rural alberta….cry me a river that your house has gone down in price when I will be lucky to get wait I paid for mine five years ago…

#262 Josh on 01.24.18 at 10:18 pm

It seems like the Turner insane asylum is antsy tonight with all the comments…even without Screwed Canadian Millennial. Hopefully he is using this time to reach out to Smokey or cleansed himself of his sin’s to Mr. Turner.