The dollar

RYAN  By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

One of the key aspects of financial analysis is to determine and isolate the main drivers of a specific asset class. For equities it’s earnings and valuations. For bonds it’s inflation and interest rates. For the Canadian dollar it’s oil prices and the interest rate differential between Canadian and US bond yields. What do these factors portend for the Canadian dollar in 2018?

First let’s start with the outlook for interest rates in Canada and the US. This week we saw the Bank of Canada hike rates by 25 bps to 1.25% – the third hike in a year. They did this in response to the strength seen in the economy which grew at over 3% and added 423,000 jobs in 2017.

I see the US economy growing above 3% this year driven by a strong consumer and the recent US tax reform which could provide an additional boost to their economy. For Canada I see slower growth of roughly 2.5% as higher interest rates weigh on consumer spending and uncertainty over NAFTA weighs on businesses and exports.

Given this outlook I see the Fed hiking rates at a faster clip than the BoC which has implications for our dollar.

Fed and BoC Overnight Rates

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Below I illustrate why this matters. In the chart I show the strong relationship between the Canadian dollar and the interest rate differential between Canadian and US bond yields. Since 2014 there has been a near perfect correlation between these two. Put simply, as the Fed hikes rates faster than the BoC this year, US bond yields should move higher relative to Canadian bond yields, which would be negative for the Canadian dollar.

Interest Rate Differential and CAD/USD

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

The second key driver of the Canadian dollar is commodity prices and, in particular, oil prices. I’ve been bullish on oil prices over the last year and I see more upside. I’m targeting WTI to close the year at US$66/bl. If I’m correct this would be bullish for the Canadian dollar.

So of the two key drivers for the Canadian dollar, one is bearish (interest rate differential) and one is bullish (oil prices).

Another tool we can look at to help determine the direction of the Canadian dollar is my financial model for the dollar, which uses current oil prices and interest rates to determine “fair value”. Based on these inputs and current levels, this suggests a fair value of 81 cents. With the dollar currently at 80 cents the model suggests limited upside from here.

CAD Model Points to Fair Value at 81 Cents

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Finally, we need to see what the technicals look like for the Canadian dollar so we have the complete picture. The Canadian dollar has improved technically over the last year with the CAD now above its rising 200-day moving average. However, it remains trapped in a clear trading range of roughly 74 cents to 84 cents. We would need to see the Canadian dollar breakout from this range before we would be willing to change our outlook.

CAD in a Technical Range

Source: Stockcharts.com, Turner Investments

Putting this analysis together, I see the Canadian dollar trading range bound this year as higher oil prices potentially push up the exchange rate at times, and the rate differential favouring US bond yields pushes it lower at times.

This long and boring analysis points to a boring trading year for the Canadian dollar where our client portfolios are neither negatively impacted by a higher Canadian dollar, nor benefit from a materially weaker Canadian dollar.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA,CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

137 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 01.20.18 at 1:20 pm

In the photo Poloz is answering the question “How much did you miss your target by?”

This much…

M43BC

#2 Mark on 01.20.18 at 1:29 pm

Something very strange has been happening. Compare the prices of two commodities, crude oil (CL), and gold (GC), to their respective CAD$-quoted equity indices (can use XGD and XEG ETFs for charting).

Crude oil futures have risen 52% in the past 2 years. XEG has only risen 24%, and XEG should theoretically be a leveraged play on crude oil.

Likewise, gold has risen 10% in the past year. The gold mining ETF, again, theoretically a leveraged play on that, fell by 7% over the year.

These are absolutely huge chasms, which are likely to resolve in either much higher equity prices (which, due to sector concentrations in the TSX, would be incredibly bullish for the index), or a reversion in the prices of crude oil and gold.

The question is which? Answering this question may very well be of greater importance and correlation than merely trying to rely upon interest rate differentials which are routinely shown to be almost completely useless in predicting currency movements and relative valuations.

#3 Madcat on 01.20.18 at 1:43 pm

Share your thoughts on housing with the NDP:

https://www.bcndp.ca/budget-2018-priorities

#4 Smoking Man on 01.20.18 at 1:43 pm

Renko !!!

This is all you need to learn to trade forex.

Even better an automated computer program located in a tax free country. Even SCM would become a capitalist if she tried this.

https://youtu.be/UIQzv2xCd70

#5 Jungle on 01.20.18 at 1:44 pm

Lol

I though he was showing how big household debt is..

Anyways poloz wants a lower dollar to boost export.

What about the steep discount on wcs? It’s not like we’re getting “fair” value compared to wti’s upside.

#6 OttawaMike on 01.20.18 at 1:49 pm

The fish was this big and then I lost it!

#7 technical analysis? on 01.20.18 at 1:54 pm

great analysis…. if nothing changes. lol

#8 Gasbag Boomer on 01.20.18 at 2:00 pm

Thanks for sharing Ryan, I really appreciate it.

#9 crossbordershopper on 01.20.18 at 2:09 pm

go to america and you wil lnever care or talk about the canadian dollar again. simple.go watch some real football the playoffs are on.super bowl coming up.The american market is the biggest and best, while people call into BNN and ask about bombardier, Boeing stock rocks ahead. Canada is so bush league it isnt funny.
NFLX will beat monday.

#10 Fish on 01.20.18 at 2:11 pm

It’s never boring thankyou Ryan

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.20.18 at 2:16 pm

Boring is ok.
Stability.
Balanced and diversified wins the race.

#12 Kevin Stoddart on 01.20.18 at 2:27 pm

So, steady as she goes then…
I’m slightly more bullish on oil and thus the $C in 2018, looking for oil to break $75 and push the dollar close to $0.90

Anyone read the Globe and Mail article about BHAV ETF? Holdings will be stocks believed to be oversold because of emotional investment decisions by the herd. MER is 1%, but I love making those bets myself, and liked the idea of a fund that does the heavy lifting for me.
Thought it could be a fun way to juice my short bet TFSA where I try and swing for the fences now and then.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/etfs/new-etf-aims-to-profit-from-the-emotional-mistakes-of-investors/article37657360/

#13 Is Canada a FemiBanana Republic? on 01.20.18 at 2:36 pm

“I’ve been bullish on oil prices over the last year and I see more upside. I’m targeting WTI to close the year at US$66/bl. If I’m correct this would be bullish for the Canadian dollar.”

What about Venezuela with their 300 billion barrels of oil and a slightly similar population size to Canada?
dolartoday posts an exchange rate of 221,340 VEF to one American dollar.

#14 Keith in Rio on 01.20.18 at 2:37 pm

The government needs a 60 cent dollar to boost exports and maintain capital controls over dollar flight from Canada.

I got my money out of this shithole when we had a 95 cent dollar so it really doesn’t matter to me anymore.

Canada……..soon to be Venezuela, but with snow.

#15 Ronaldo on 01.20.18 at 2:39 pm

#2 Mark re: XEG

From thestar.com: “The XEG is an energy stew consisting of integrated oils, the large producers, the intermediate producers and the junior producers. Some of them are oily producers and some are gassy producers. Add in the oilfield services and infrastructure companies and you have too many moving parts all advancing and declining at different intervals.

At the moment the only TSX listed energy sub-sectors are the BMO Junior Oil Index ETF (ZJO) and the BMO Junior Gas Index ETF (ZJN).”
———————————————————–
I have owned XEG in the past and have found this to be true as well. It would seem that over diversification could be the problem with this one. Better options out there.

#16 Hana on 01.20.18 at 2:42 pm

Thanks Ryan! Can you or blog dogs give advice what is better to buy VFV or VSP? I need to add US equities to my portfolio but am stack at the moment trying to decide which etf would be better. Thanks in advance!

#17 For those about to flop... on 01.20.18 at 2:45 pm

I guess to be a true Canadian I should have a hockey card collection by now.

I don’t.

But I do have a Canadian Citizen Certificate signed by Stephen Harper…

M43BC

#18 Ray Skunk on 01.20.18 at 2:51 pm

Oil could go to $166/bl – as long as we still have eco-warrior-halfwit Butts and his puppet T2 at the helm, CAD will still be in the toilet.

Don’t even need to started on “gender equality within NAFTA” to be a CAD bear until 2019 at the earliest.

#19 TurnerNation on 01.20.18 at 2:59 pm

Of course Millennials will blow their new found Ontariowe min. wage on frivolity.
I also read one saying they ‘need’ a yearly vacation trip south.
Gee, growing up even when a man could support a family and buy a house on a single income our vacations were a rare luxury.
Entitlement abounds.

And why are they stuck on min wage? No one ever asks.
See, there’s tons of turnover in retail, hospitality.
Seems to me any half decent person sticking around will become lead hand, team lead, asst. manager and so on. (These are better paying and transferable skills. To get ahead.)

Maybe they are duds? If you cannot get ahead working in over five years then maybe you suck at it.

Also the leading cause of loss/shrinkage/theft in retail is in its own employees! Yes the thieves just got a free raise. Makes me sick all prices just went up due to laziness, entitlement and thievery. A living wage indeed. Crime pays.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/how-ontario-minimum-wage-workers-are-spending-their-payincrease/article37664009/

Yup in Kanada they pretend to pay us and we pretend to work. Everyone gets a job under Kommunism.

Blog Dogs Starve the Beast! Each week I give 30-40% of my grocery spend to independent and mom & pop owned places. Try it.

#20 Danforth on 01.20.18 at 3:02 pm

What is the ’18 forecast for growth on the Canadian portion of a portfolio?

#21 chapter 9 on 01.20.18 at 3:03 pm

For the record the data provided in my post was taken directly from the Texas Public Safety Threat Overview. This document was unclassified in January 2017 in which state legislators, all members of law enforcement, health authorities examine all forms of threats to their state. This 73 page document is an example of due diligence by elected officials. The site that you thought I got this information from–never heard of it.

#22 Leo Trollstoy on 01.20.18 at 3:05 pm

I see the Canadian dollar trading range bound this year as higher oil prices potentially push up the exchange rate at times, and the rate differential favouring US bond yields pushes it lower at times.

I agree. I Called this months ago.

You’re all welcome!

#23 Howard on 01.20.18 at 3:20 pm

The second key driver of the Canadian dollar is commodity prices and, in particular, oil prices. I’ve been bullish on oil prices over the last year and I see more upside. I’m targeting WTI to close the year at US$66/bl. If I’m correct this would be bullish for the Canadian dollar.

————————————————

This is the second time this error has been made in this blog. I am surprised that you are not aware that Canadian oilsands production is sold at the WCS price, currently at $39 a barrel, NOT the WTI price.

Due to lack of pipelines, and bottlenecks in the pipelines that do exist, price of Canadian oil has completely decoupled from world oil markets. WCS has recovered a bit but it’s upside price movement is severely limited. Thank treasonous Liberal politicians who prefer to enrich Saudi oil barons while sticking it to their fellow Canadians in Alberta and Sask.

#24 Lost...but not leased on 01.20.18 at 3:27 pm

To Flop…

Just caught whats been going on in your family..as you reported a few post back.

I lost my Dad to Cancer(?) in 2015..or was it the treatment ?

Heads up is do your homework…

Chat more later…

#25 Here you go on 01.20.18 at 3:33 pm

#20 Another Deckchair on 01.14.18 at 6:29 pm
Hey #8 Here you go!

I’ve been thinking about your script – I can remember it being posted a while ago.

This’ll help me separate the wheat from the chaff so that I get something out of Garths’ kind work again.

Thank you. :-)
—————————-
#25 SoggyShorts on 01.14.18 at 6:44 pm
#8 Here you go on 01.14.18 at 4:33 pm
github link
https://gist.github.com/anonymous/7d6201256f98010f6bf935e33ee4374e
—————————-
I’ve been using this since the last time you shared it, and would like to say thanks again, has made my scrolling much more enjoyable, even by only removing posts from 2 blog dogs
=========================
It’s actually not my script: Fortune Faded made it for Smoking Man at this post:

#65 Fortune Faded on 06.15.16 at 10:39 pm

#26 mark on 01.20.18 at 3:34 pm

Always a interesting read Ryan.
With canada being such a tiny amount of the global stock market maybe you can do a in depth analysis on Emerging Markets and EAFE indexes?

There most likely to out preform the canadian market and the USA market over the next 10 years big time!

Your thoughts?

TY.

#27 Penny Henny on 01.20.18 at 3:50 pm

#2 Mark on 01.20.18 at 1:29 pm
Something very strange has been happening. Compare the prices of two commodities, crude oil (CL), and gold (GC), to their respective CAD$-quoted equity indices (can use XGD and XEG ETFs for charting).

Crude oil futures have risen 52% in the past 2 years. XEG has only risen 24%, and XEG should theoretically be a leveraged play on crude oil.

Likewise, gold has risen 10% in the past year. The gold mining ETF, again, theoretically a leveraged play on that, fell by 7% over the year.
////////////////////////

Mark you are failing to factor in the relative strength of CAD over the last year.
Also you did not account for discount on WCS

#28 westcdn on 01.20.18 at 4:01 pm

A comment by a financial blogger – “if a person expects 100% return, they will borrow at 50%”. I suspect many broken dreams to come.

Now that interest rates are rising fast on my Helco, it time close it out because I currently don’t see the return differential being worth the risk. Fortunately I have help on the way and it is not proceeds of crime or an inheritance or even a lottery.

I just think it time to cash out some of my stock winners. (Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered)

#29 thank you on 01.20.18 at 4:01 pm

for the entry , Ryan

enjoy reading your thoughts- you always provide the evidence for your conclusions

is your bullish stance on oil also extend to other commodities, such as Au, silver? Am thinking of taking a position in a commodity-based etf for 2018 (small % of my portfolio)

would appreciate your opinion

#30 Mark on 01.20.18 at 4:07 pm

“There most likely to out preform the canadian market and the USA market over the next 10 years big time!
Your thoughts?”

https://imgur.com/a/wt6En

EEM (Emerging Markets) tends to go up faster than EWC (Canada), but also goes down more quickly as well. They appear to be significantly correlated, with Canada lagging behind.

EEM has recently exploded to the upside. No reason why EWC shouldn’t make up a lot of ground. There are various points at which EWC has matched the long-term performance of EEM, meaning that Canada is not a chronic underperformer. Just looking at that chart, EWC is poised to outperform EEM going forward as returns once again eventually converge.

Of course, an algorithmic rebalancing strategy would have you selling the outperforming assets, and buying the “cheaper” ones. Canada appears to be quite a relative bargain at this time with the US market indices at particularly extreme relative valuations.

#31 Flatlander on 01.20.18 at 4:09 pm

@ #23 Howard

“Thank treasonous Liberal politicians who prefer to enrich Saudi oil barons while sticking it to their fellow Canadians in Alberta and Sask.”

———————————————–

Great point Howard. It defies all logic that we wouldn’t support our own countries economy by using locally extracted oil. For a liberal government to support Saudi Arabia, turning a blind eye to it’s significant human rights issues, and in the same moment turn their backs on the struggling western Canadian families who rely on a strong resource sector by scuttling pipeline expansion is indeed “treasonous”.

#32 mike from mtl on 01.20.18 at 4:22 pm

#16 Hana on 01.20.18 at 2:42 pm
Thanks Ryan! Can you or blog dogs give advice what is better to buy VFV or VSP

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

My humble opinion is VFV – always go unhedged. Trying to guess where the lonnie goes is a crap shoot. Plus with it around the 80c mark and plenty of factors weighing downsides you gain from even simple currency differences. Not to mention the s&p500 has been doing so well.

If you’re buying for an RRSP account buy US$ VOO for dividends and its the ‘real’ ETF.

As a rule I never ever hedge.

#33 I’m stupid on 01.20.18 at 5:06 pm

#134 Periscope from yesterday

You want a Canada that makes you happy(only you). A Canada that makes you right even if your wrong. A nation that’s grateful to you for being born, even if you haven’t contributed. You want a Canada where you and only you decide what’s right and wrong, acceptable and unacceptable.

Well guess what… We have a Canada where we can tell you to Piss off.

#34 Andrew Woburn on 01.20.18 at 5:19 pm

The Globe financial writer, Scott Barlow, while not denying the force of oil prices, has advanced the argument that the spread on two year Cdn and US federal bonds tracks the change in the loonie at least as well.

If this is right, it suggests that Fed increases should drive the dollar down more than relatively stable oil prices will support it.

However I believe Canada will catch an updraft from the growing US economy not withstanding all the noise about NAFTA. Trump may tweet all he wants to his base but NAFTA directly benefits far more powerful US interests than it hurts and the GOP demonstrably cares little for the average worker. Who do you think owns all those maquiladora factories the south of the US border. Spoiler alert. It ain’t Mexicans.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/bond-market-could-be-bigger-driver-of-the-loonie-than-oil/article23962015/

#35 SWL1976 on 01.20.18 at 5:24 pm

#1 For those about to flop…

The people who come here and pretend to be someone they’re not are only kidding themselves.

I would rather be authentic and a valued source to exchange information with as we walk day after day ,issue after issue, through life together.

Blog lives matter…

———–

True dat. In blog we trust

@TurnerNation

Blog Dogs Starve the Beast! Each week I give 30-40% of my grocery spend to independent and mom & pop owned places. Try it.

—————

That has been my mantra for years now and however small the difference… If you are not part of the solution you are part of the problem

We were just talking about sprawlmart today, and I told the story of how excited my dad was when I was a child and we got our first walmart within driving distance to our home. While he was excited at being able to purchase junk at a discount, I even as a child somehow new that the low prices most certainly did come at a cost

Fast forward 30+ years…

Can’t remember the last time I set foot in one

M41BC

PS – These Saturday posts sure do add some food for thought here on the weekends

Great addition Garth, Doug and Ryan

#36 The BTC on 01.20.18 at 5:25 pm

Bitcoin seem to be recovering today.
Almost C$17k as we speak.
Anyone here fancy riding its next surge?

#37 Andrew Woburn on 01.20.18 at 5:45 pm

#12 Kevin Stoddart on 01.20.18 at 2:27 pm

Anyone read the Globe and Mail article about BHAV ETF? Holdings will be stocks believed to be oversold because of emotional investment decisions by the herd. MER is 1%, but I love making those bets myself, and liked the idea of a fund that does the heavy lifting for me.
=====================

Thanks for this Kevin. I will look into it.

My strategy has been to look for unloved major companies with a history of decent dividends which are very unlikely to fall out of the sky. Recently I followed my instincts to buy Apple at $90, Costco at $153, IBM at $145 and Fairfax at $155. If a company has superb management and a strong franchise, the fact that a bunch of FOMO crazed traders don’t like it this week, that only makes it cheap for the rest of us who aren’t trying to make our quarterly numbers.

I’ve obviously had a couple of stocks decrease after I bought them like Cineplex and GE but I don’t need to sell and I haven’t put enough in that I can’t afford to average down if they really drop. I only really lose long term if they cut their dividends.

After experiencing some of the solid gains that can be made in this way, I wonder why anyone wastes time on penny stocks. The quest for the elusive ten-bagger leaves most people in tears and seems to be more about feeding one’s ego than one’s bank account.

#38 Newbie investor on 01.20.18 at 5:51 pm

Hi all, newbie investor here, my grandfather just gave his grandkids all early inheritances, on condition it all has to be invested. I maxed out my tfsa and rrsp contributions. I have 70k left. I just read the book millionaire teacher by andrew hallam. He says buy vanguard index funds and re balance once a year. It sounds to easy to be true? Then garth says buy etfs which are similar. I’m only 23 so I have years ahead of me. Any advice on index funds anyone? Thx newbie investor

#39 Smoking Man . on 01.20.18 at 5:51 pm

#25 Here you go on 01.20.18 at 3:33 pm
#20 Another Deckchair on 01.14.18 at 6:29 pm
Hey #8 Here you go!

I’ve been thinking about your script – I can remember it being posted a while ago.

This’ll help me separate the wheat from the chaff so that I get something out of Garths’ kind work again.

Thank you. :-)
—————————-
#25 SoggyShorts on 01.14.18 at 6:44 pm
#8 Here you go on 01.14.18 at 4:33 pm
github link
https://gist.github.com/anonymous/7d6201256f98010f6bf935e33ee4374e
—————————-
I’ve been using this since the last time you shared it, and would like to say thanks again, has made my scrolling much more enjoyable, even by only removing posts from 2 blog dogs
=========================
It’s actually not my script: Fortune Faded made it for Smoking Man at this post:

#65 Fortune Faded on 06.15.16 at 10:39 pm
…….

Ha ha. It’s missing a trim command . Now you see me

#40 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 01.20.18 at 5:56 pm

Good analysis Ryan, I’d like to disagree with you though on the direction of the CAD vs the USD.

My analysis for Canada’s two big banks points to the USD containing to fall while the CAD raises. Quite the opposite of what you are saying here.

The USD will start Q1/Q2 strongly thanks to the Trump tax plan favoring the return of overseas capital to the USA, thus BUYING USD and selling FX. Apple, GE, Netflix, all are joining the bandwagon. Share buybacks are also strong. China is selling USD in the past 4 weeks.

The USD is suffering from disappointing economic data when investors expected to see the opposite. The CAD on the other hand, with raising oil prices, strong very surprising economic data and growing business/consumer confidence. Canada is also looking strong considering we raised our rates in January when it was more expected in March. 3 more hikes might be baked in while the USA might only do 2-3 rather than 4.

NAFTA might throw a wrench into this, but considering TPP is DOA, NAFTA is what businesses want.

Personally, I’d be (and am) selling USD on a large scale.

Just some thoughts.

#41 Millenial on 01.20.18 at 6:08 pm

I occasionally work in North Etobicoke. Was there this week, noticed that the Food Basics at the southeast corner of Kipling and Dixon has closed. Asked my staff when it closed and they said the first week of January. It had been there for a long time.

I don’t think the timing of it’s closing (with the minimum wage increase) is coincidence. I was doing some math, and this wage increase could easily cost this Food Basics $100,000 a year. Lots of nice old European families (Italian, Portuguese, Polish) in detached bungalows around there, but also a ton of immigrants from places like Somalia and India in the not super-nice-looking apartment buildings along Dixon. The later probably aren’t rich, and aren’t spending money on cosmetics and other high mark-up items when they go to this grocery store. They buy food, to eat. Food Basics probably had no choice since their margins are so thin. You won’t hear about this in the news though.

Anyway, sucks for the poor people in that area. My staff said there’s a No Frills a ways away. But for those apartment people that don’t have cars: an easy walk (even during winter) is now a cab ride away. It’s funny the unforeseen consequences of government manipulating private labour contracts. The day care rise is particularly sad.

But the saddest thing is that the poor people whose lives are most affected by this manipulation (for the worse) will think the solution is EVEN MORE government manipulation, and that they should vote for those from the NDP or Liberal party.

It’s all downhill and hopeless. Save yourselves. BTW, I have a car and shop exclusively at Whole Foods and Loblaws, so I don’t know why I just took the time to write this. Maybe I do care about the downtrodden a little, but you can’t save stupid.

#42 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.20.18 at 6:13 pm

DELETED

#43 Shawn on 01.20.18 at 6:16 pm

Very informative and accurate. I agree with the bond market analysis. This won’t change. What may change is how the market views $CAD and $US relative to oil. The United States is on its way to become the world’s largest oil producer. This is a relatively new development – they have doubled production in the last 10 years.

#44 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.20.18 at 6:29 pm

DELETED

#45 Victor V on 01.20.18 at 6:29 pm

Single detached homes in GTA suburbs crashing hard this January….especially in Vaughan, Markham and Richmond Hill.

https://markham.listing.ca/detached-home-price-history.htm

https://richmond-hill.listing.ca/detached-home-price-history.htm

https://vaughan.listing.ca/detached-home-price-history.htm

#46 Wrk.dover on 01.20.18 at 6:46 pm

Comment #1: Golden

#47 Leichendiener on 01.20.18 at 6:49 pm

Thank you Ryan. Good post.

#48 acdel on 01.20.18 at 6:49 pm

Good post Ryan, I am glad that you mentioned NAFTA; that is the canary in the coal mine; if the U.S. decides to terminate it then we are in for a rude awakening! It is surprising that so many out there do not see this!

Regarding oil, it is surprising, actually not, on how so many within Canada itself do not understand how important it is to our economy that this product gets shipped, via pipeline, to coasts or elsewhere.

Until things change, it is a major part of our lifeline in this country! It creates so many jobs directly and indirectly! It takes money to create new industries, while at the same time allowing us to have the benefits that we are enjoying, ok, here it comes!

I could care less about the counters, you people just do not get it!!

#49 Danny on 01.20.18 at 7:00 pm

Talking about dollars. …and you and Garth raised this way before the general press lords.

Much more talk in the press in all forms about the serious personal unprecedented amount of debt by Canadians.

Every dollar earned for every $1.70 debt.
However is this dollar earned valued before or after taxes?

The press seems to ignore this question.

Is this not important?

#50 Stan Brooks on 01.20.18 at 7:06 pm

#2 Mark on 01.20.18 at 1:29 pm

You got it wrong.

You are looking at Canadian indexes that have very few potential investors. The local herd is indebted and foreigners are not interested in TSX.

Gold might strengthen further, same for oil, due to USD relative weakness compared to Euro, but TXS will most likely under-perform Dow again and for sure under-perform Europe and emerging markets.

Look at VGK, DIA, VPL, VWO performances and the TSX performance in the last year. Pathetic.

We are seeing detachment and proliferation of markets. No global market in stocks any more.

———————————–

Doug, I would not apply fundamental or technical analysis to our currency situation.

We are short of very serious currency crises and crunch
There is no way current prices in Canada justify CAD anywhere above 60 USD cents or 40 Eurocents.

The rising real inflation in CAD due to minimum wage increases and with any potential strength in the CAD will exacerbate our mini-dutch disease and will make the economy completely unproductive killing whatever competitiveness is still left. Just too expensive to produce anything.

What economy if you only consume with such record household indebtedness?

————————–
We are making strategic error with increase of taxes on small businesses by Federal government and with transferring the weight of drastic minimum wage increases to the same businesses by provincial government.

Without extensive QE to compensate for and reduce the indebtedness we are doomed.

It is a certainty, predicament and it will be spectacular.

CAD will detach itself from the price of oil. The rubble is.

We used the low rates to pile on debt, not to pay it off, so we are in uncharted territory with higher taxes, deficit, record indebtedness, so less money to flow into the economy.

Strong currency is not possible in current situation.

#51 Stan Brooks on 01.20.18 at 7:16 pm

Sorry, Ryan, no Doug.

#52 Ryan Lewenza on 01.20.18 at 7:17 pm

Hana “Thanks Ryan! Can you or blog dogs give advice what is better to buy VFV or VSP? I need to add US equities to my portfolio but am stack at the moment trying to decide which etf would be better. Thanks in advance!”

Both track the S&P 500, the only difference is one hedges USD (VSP) and one is unhedged (VFV). I would go with VFV since I don’t see the CAD rallying strongly versus USD and in a downturn the USD almost always rallies so it will hold up better for a Canadian investor. – Ryan L

#53 Hana on 01.20.18 at 7:19 pm

#32 mike from mtl
Thank you for your response!

#54 Ryan Lewenza on 01.20.18 at 7:24 pm

Danforth “What is the ’18 forecast for growth on the Canadian portion of a portfolio?”

I’m calling for a decent year for the TSX. Let’s call it 8-12% return. – Ryan L

#55 Ryan Lewenza on 01.20.18 at 7:28 pm

Howard “This is the second time this error has been made in this blog. I am surprised that you are not aware that Canadian oilsands production is sold at the WCS price, currently at $39 a barrel, NOT the WTI price.”

Yes I’m aware of WCS and the current large discount. But the Canadian dollar correlates much better with WTI than WCS. So given this why would I use WCS? So it’s not an “error”. – Ryan L

#56 Ryan Lewenza on 01.20.18 at 7:33 pm

Mark “Always a interesting read Ryan. With canada being such a tiny amount of the global stock market maybe you can do a in depth analysis on Emerging Markets and EAFE indexes?”

Great suggestion. We’re very bullish on EAFE and EM and have been increasing exposure to these areas in client accounts. I’ll try to cover that topic over the next month. – Ryan L

#57 Mr Burns on 01.20.18 at 7:43 pm

@37 Andrew Woburn

“I’ve obviously had a couple of stocks decrease after I bought them like Cineplex and GE but I don’t need to sell and I haven’t put enough in that I can’t afford to average down if they really drop.”

Cineplex, AMC, IMAX…all slowly dying. IMAX’s only growth potential was China but that has already ended with the Chinese government backed operation soon to dominate. As for AMC and Cineplex…today’s kiddies like watching movies and TV on their phones. Not difficult to predict what this means for large format entertainment venues with time.

GE has a good chance of being broken up and sold off. Doesn’t sound too appetizing for shares.

Although I don’t own IBM, but it’s a interesting play. Some rumblings about a future direction.

#58 Ryan Lewenza on 01.20.18 at 7:44 pm

thank you “is your bullish stance on oil also extend to other commodities, such as Au, silver? Am thinking of taking a position in a commodity-based etf for 2018 (small % of my portfolio)”

I’m bullish on commodities broadly given how much they’ve underperformed in recent years. I have a great chart comparing a commodity index to the S&P 500 and it’s at the lowest level since 1970. Commodities are due for stronger returns. And I like silver given how beaten up it is. Silver’s currently trading at a material discount to gold so I see some mean reversion coming soon with silver outperforming gold. – Ryan L

#59 -=jwk=- on 01.20.18 at 7:46 pm

Great point Howard. It defies all logic that we wouldn’t support our own countries economy by using locally extracted oil. For a liberal government to support Saudi Arabia, turning a blind eye to it’s significant human rights issues, and in the same moment turn their backs on the struggling western Canadian families who rely on a strong resource sector by scuttling pipeline expansion is indeed “treasonous”.

It’s a global market. Are you proposing that Canada withdraw from the global market? And we would not be able to sell any oil to Americans or anybody else?
That we would somehow be better off paying $100+ a barrel for tar sands oil (remember all the investment costs are borne by us as we cant sell internationally….)
instead of $35 for saudi pump oil? How would that be better for us?

#60 Another Deckchair on 01.20.18 at 7:57 pm

@39 Stoj

Don’t worry, had removed your name from the script when I installed it; you seem (thankfully) to be looking up and seeing a good future for yourself these days. Keep going and don’t look back! (I know, a couple of steps to the side, but you do seem to love California, and it is really good to read this)

As to the script, it’s not perfect by any means, but was interesting to see how it worked. As you’ll know, you learn something every day if you just keep your eyes open.

#61 steph on 01.20.18 at 8:06 pm

Garth,
That was truly the most boring post on your site since quite a long time.

Keep it up Ryan!

Jee…

#62 KLNR on 01.20.18 at 8:10 pm

@#33 I’m stupid on 01.20.18 at 5:06 pm
#134 Periscope from yesterday

You want a Canada that makes you happy(only you). A Canada that makes you right even if your wrong. A nation that’s grateful to you for being born, even if you haven’t contributed. You want a Canada where you and only you decide what’s right and wrong, acceptable and unacceptable.

Well guess what… We have a Canada where we can tell you to Piss off.
________________________________

Haha, well put. Wish this narrative that the 1950’s were some kind of utopia would die off already. life for your average human has literally never been better than it is right now.

#63 Nonplused on 01.20.18 at 8:20 pm

Ryan, based on your final chart I see a retest of $0.73 as more likely than a breakout from $0.82.

Figuring in for Canada will be the effect of carbon taxes and to a lesser extent minimum wage hikes. Both of which will have a bigger impact on the Canadian economy than the US since they are more widely adopted, and nobody has any money to pay them without cutting something else.

Also, I think it’s interesting how powerful political jargon-ism can be. Why is $15 appropriate for Canada? But that is what they are using in the US. But a US $15 dollar bill with Billy Graham’s picture on it is worth 20% more than a Canadian $15 dollar bill with Bob and Doug on it.It just goes to show they pull these numbers out of their arses.

#64 Smoking Man on 01.20.18 at 8:28 pm

#44 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.20.18 at 6:29 pm
DELETED

So you got all FIRED up at the women’s march and you came here swinging.

Two deleted comments in a row.

#65 Entrepreneur on 01.20.18 at 8:47 pm

I think NAFTA will pull through. Trump is playing bluff to get a better deal which he should, an entrepreneur tactic. And we should call bluff right back.

Yes #48 acdel oil is important to our economy, led by our leaders for decades, but today in this environment, we should have been off fossil fuel driven society into others like green. And hopefully once on that path working progressively to succeed further.

Right now we are brain dead: drive car to work, use debt/credit card to buy, electricity to heat now natural gas, buy cheaper from another country but not think how it got here, and so on. And we all do that and we all (most) know that is not the correct method to use.

I liked #127 Periscope views #33 I’m stupid. We remember what neighbourhoods were like, now new people all the time, hardly any kids, little to nil connection.

And when I say “the spiral to the top” does not just mean greed. It means when too much greed rules (and I will be nice here) more disruptions, for people and the environment..

#66 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.20.18 at 8:52 pm

#64 Smoking Man on 01.20.18 at 8:28 pm

I threw too much heat at you Smokey. Was too much for Ryan Lewenza to handle.

#67 acdel on 01.20.18 at 9:03 pm

#64 Smoking Man

Actually, I think she snuck in under #61 steph.

I have the popcorn popping along with a 6 pack waiting for me. :)

#68 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.20.18 at 9:22 pm

#67 acdel on 01.20.18 at 9:03 pm

Your tin foil is on too tight.

#69 acdel on 01.20.18 at 9:33 pm

#65 Entrepreneur

Thanks for the feedback; yes, I get it but as I mentioned many times it takes enormous amount of money as well as the expertise to move forward, time as well!!

There is no reason as to why we cannot be the energy super power of the world; whether it being alternative or what ever new technology comes along. The current system that severely taxes a small population in the second largest, cold, cold country without the largest greenhouse contributors actually taking it seriously; meaning that they will sign all the agreements one likes but will never adhere to it; including us; talk to all the Canadians that have to put up with minus 40 temps with up to minus 65 windchill’s; is not going to work for us.

Yes, greed is an issue but the most important issue to them is the stability of a country that prevents it from collapsing. We have seen it numerous times.

Perhaps if we had the population of the U.S. we would be the leaders.

Here is a recent link to a story that I read regarding (I feel) is the alarmist views on climate change undone!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5283035/Worst-case-global-warming-scenarios-wont-happen.html

Let us focus on clean water; without it, nobody lives!

#70 Zapstrap on 01.20.18 at 9:58 pm

Hey Flop, took your advice on the currency exchange and it worked out well. Thanx.
Sorry to hear about your father, I lost mine a few months ago and look back on our “best bud’s” relationship as a great gift. Hope you get it sorted out. Life is short.

#71 For those about to flop... on 01.20.18 at 10:05 pm

I’m thinking of making it part of my blog routine to re-post the weeks howmuch articles each Saturday to try and get InfLewenza and Robax over the 100 mark.

Gord Downie wrote a song about this discrepancy.

Garth,you are ahead by a century…

M43BC

Mapped: Bitcoin’s Legality Around The World.

https://howmuch.net/articles/bitcoin-legality-around-the-world

This Map Shows Which Countries are Buying Most of the World’s Diamonds.

https://howmuch.net/articles/world-map-of-diamond-imports

How Much Money the Highest Paid CEOs in America Make.

https://howmuch.net/articles/highest-paid-ceo-2017

#72 acdel on 01.20.18 at 10:08 pm

#68 Screwed Canadian Millenial

Now, now Steph, behave! :)

#73 Blackdog on 01.20.18 at 10:10 pm

DELETED

#74 Lost...but not leased on 01.20.18 at 10:13 pm

Memo to Ryan:

I appreciate the advice you and Garth etc. provide….

However, much of the information appears to be beyond the average person..to the point that it may as well be a foreign language.

This is not to say that personal due diligence is not part of the problem….but perhaps “Investing For Dummies”may increase the audience and potential clientele. Post COMMENTS seem to be average in the+ 200 range…but many are the same parties in literal brag mode.

I think it is fair to say that many on this blog believe Real Estate is not a long term investment vehicle,(aka liquidity and risk), but other options are no less certain. It may be fair to say that more people
have been burned by the stock markets than RE..as RE love it or hate ie..is RE-AL.

I have (2) family members I referred to this blog.
One(PhD) had a condo…sold approx. 5 years ago..bad move…given it is worth at least 2-3 times what sold it for..now renting..another(BCIT diploma) had a leasehold condo, sold, bought a house approx. 4 years ago..house has doubled in price.

Just some thoughts….

#75 Periscope on 01.20.18 at 10:16 pm

#43 I’m stupid on 01.20.18 at 5:06 pm

Not that I really care what you think because I don’t. But there are way more people that think like I do. Did you miss the last election…ya know when the US elected Trump.

But, on one thing I totally agree with you. You are stupid.

#76 Smoking Man on 01.20.18 at 10:17 pm

#66 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 01.20.18 at 8:52 pm
#64 Smoking Man on 01.20.18 at 8:28 pm

I threw too much heat at you Smokey. Was too much for Ryan Lewenza to handle
….

Now I’m getting aroused. ;)

#77 acdel on 01.20.18 at 10:19 pm

#68 Screwed Canadian Millenial

Oh, I forgot to mention that I will gladly mail you a box of Kleenex for all the tears that you have spilled on this blog; which, incidentally is provided to you (free) by one of those mean old Boomers that not only served in the military, served our country in Parliament, provided numerous jobs through his investment fields also a general store that his wife and himself run providing many jobs in that county; could say more but I will let Garth fill in the rest.

#78 Flatlander on 01.20.18 at 10:34 pm

@ 59 -=jwk=-

“Are you proposing that Canada withdraw from the global market?”

Of course not. The goal of additional pipeline volume to tidewater is to INCREASE our ability to compete globally, whether through BC or the East. How would that not be better for us? Your points on investment costs are valid, but if transported east we at least gain the ability to use our own resources….or sell it all if the markets dictate so. I appreciate there is a growing number of people in this country who consider oil taboo, but obstructing the ability to transport our greatest natural resource is absurd.

#79 Andrew Woburn on 01.20.18 at 10:37 pm

#57 Mr Burns on 01.20.18 at 7:43 pm

Cineplex, AMC, IMAX…all slowly dying. IMAX’s only growth potential was China but that has already ended with the Chinese government backed operation soon to dominate. As for AMC and Cineplex…today’s kiddies like watching movies and TV on their phones. Not difficult to predict what this means for large format entertainment venues with time.
=======================

I’ve lived through TV is going to kill the movies, VCR’s will kill the movies etc. It may be different this time but my theory is that movies are a cheap date and sex rules.

Cineplex owns the market and has already started streaming live theatre. If promoters ever wake up to the vast market they could have streaming live concerts shows, Cineplex will be there. The last summer of movies sucked and drove down attendance but Hollywood will fix this as it always does reluctantly. There is a growing market of seniors who are no longer kid bound and will go to see movies that do not involve robots blowing peoples heads off. It’s a five year hold.

#80 Smoking Man on 01.20.18 at 10:38 pm

#60 Another Deckchair on 01.20.18 at 7:57 pm
@39 Stoj

Don’t worry, had removed your name from the script when I installed it; you seem (thankfully) to be looking up and seeing a good future for yourself these days. Keep going and don’t look back! (I know, a couple of steps to the side, but you do seem to love California, and it is really good to read this)

As to the script, it’s not perfect by any means, but was interesting to see how it worked. As you’ll know, you learn something every day if you just keep your eyes open.
…….

It’s amazing here. But it’s only temporary. Grand kids soon. Home schooling them all the way. !!!

Canada needs me to help make T2 a drama teacher again.
And i wont dispoint my fellow Deplorables.

#81 Andrew Woburn on 01.20.18 at 10:51 pm

I’ve been reading a lot of hand wringing about how the drop in US tax rates will suck business out of Canada. Never trust MSM reporters with the attention span of a cocker spaniel

Although even the major US tax firms are still struggling to digest 1,000 pages of tax legislation, the major points are reasonably clear. The US has shifted from taxing corps on their world income to a “territorial” system where they only tax them on their US income. The trade-off is the US government gets to tax their foreign income at essentially half rates. This is considered better than the old system where the US could only tax foreign profits when they were repatriated if ever.

What this appears to mean, pending further clarification, is that there are no real obstacles to US corps conducting business through foreign subsidiaries and perhaps some advantages. Some US observers believe Trump has accomplished the opposite of what he promised and may accelerate the move of US corps abroad.

Therefore we cannot assume at this point that US tax reform will bleed jobs and investment from Canada. It may even increase them.

#82 Lost...but not leased on 01.20.18 at 11:03 pm

Re Movie biz…

Richmond BC once had (7) total movie screens in the City Center.

Now there are NONE…all gone
The City allowed a 12 + SCREEN multiplex(+IMAX) to be built 4 miles from the City Center.

it appears that high end screens are the new norm…aka luxury seats with access to food and drinks…word is newer viewer options are hot tubs.

IMHO…waAAAAy too much CGI in new movies…seems to be an adjunct to video games…magic is lost.

The dirty non- secret is ‘nudge- nudge wink- wink’ ..many movies are available “free” on -line…

Many have surmised that HOLLYWOOD is DEAD….whether it be the HarveyGate-ish sex scandals or the major lack of originality….even Steven Spielberg is on record as stating that unfortunately the studios are rolling the dice with $200 Million + blockbusters..doomed to fail.

Few saw Netflix coming..but it will be the new norm.

#83 Periscope on 01.20.18 at 11:14 pm

When was the last mass shooting in Canada? Talk about cherry-picking. – Garth

Well there was Meryerthorpe not so long (my cousin was the Mayor) and and that kook in Quebec that killed all those girls.

Then there is this from MacLeans. I hope MacLeans is an acceptable source. http://www.macleans.ca/opinion/gun-violence-isnt-just-a-u-s-problem-and-canada-isnt-immune/

When I was a boy this was unheard of, and something has changed. It could be that we coddle criminals and no longer put crazy people in looney bins. Yes I could buy a gun at the local Edmonton hardware store when I was a boy, and I think I even took it to show and tell in grade 6. A happier simpler time, and one I miss.

Garth is right that it would be scary to sell guns at the local hardware store today. But only because of the changes in Canada. Once we punish criminals and put crazy people in looney bins again it will be safe to sell guns in hardware stores again. Sadly, that ship has sailed. So buy some weed and dream about what we had when we were young. Sadly we cannot pass the gentile Canada we grew up in to out children. We have failed.

#84 acdel on 01.20.18 at 11:21 pm

#81 Andrew Woburn

Interesting views!
What are your perceptions or projections if NAFTA fails?

There have been so little comments to my previous posts regarding NAFTA that I am eager to hear others perspectives on this; especially if the U.S. decides that it is not worth it to them. What are your thoughts if the Americans leave to the implications of this country? Thanks.

#85 Surf the waves of life on 01.20.18 at 11:24 pm

#80 Smoking Man on 01.20.18 at 10:38 pm

#60 Another Deckchair on 01.20.18 at 7:57 pm
@39 Stoj

Don’t worry, had removed your name from the script when I installed it; you seem (thankfully) to be looking up and seeing a good future for yourself these days. Keep going and don’t look back! (I know, a couple of steps to the side, but you do seem to love California, and it is really good to read this)

As to the script, it’s not perfect by any means, but was interesting to see how it worked. As you’ll know, you learn something every day if you just keep your eyes open.
…….

It’s amazing here. But it’s only temporary. Grand kids soon. Home schooling them all the way. !!!

Canada needs me to help make T2 a drama teacher again.
And i wont dispoint my fellow Deplorables.
….

Every now and then when your life gets complicated and the weasels start closing in, the only cure is to load up on heinous chemicals and then drive like a bastard from Hollywood to Las Vegas … with the music at top volume and at least a pint of ether.

#86 Entrepreneur on 01.20.18 at 11:42 pm

#69 acdel…we agree on moving forward, energy super power of the world, new technology, and clean water.

And we all like the convenience that the system has created, carry on but recognize the disadvantages and move towards sustainable energy.

Climate change is part of the problem, disrupting the earth is another, and ignoring is “turning a blind eye.”

As for the video, one only has to see the changes around our lives and have lived long enough that to see the transformation(s). With not enough regard/respect to stop and look for other avenues.

Takes money but it also take “will” and I believe we can do it.

#87 Smartalox on 01.21.18 at 1:00 am

Flopper:

I’ve just checked in to the blog after travelling for a few days. I’m sorry to hear of your predicament, and I’m sorry to hear about it.

My advice, for whatever it’s worth, is this: Forgiveness is a gift you give yourself.

I grew up in a household where times were tough and chaos reigned. I went to work at 12, and my first paycheque went to pay a past due hydro bill. The bill at the time (I recall it well) was more than three times what I pay now (30 years later) for power, for my entire home, now.

Times were tough, and the stress of it all pit one member of our family against another. We were awful to each other.

At some point I finally gave up. I estranged myself from them.

It worked for a while; but inevitability, circumstances drew us back together, and every time we came together, we’d quickly be at each other’s throats, with devastating effects.

It cost me thousands of dollars in therapy, but what I learned was that the boundaries I tried to establish through distance were a stopgap. It gave me time and space to establish myself, to make something that they couldn’t undermine, they couldn’t take away.

But to truly insulate myself, I had to let go of the things they did to hurt me. If not, they’d just come back, and keep pressing the same buttons, over and over again.

My point is this: if you forgive them, you take those buttons away. It liberates you. The things they did or said don’t matter to you after that. And if your family feels better along the way, eventually, you’ll be able to take some comfort in that, too.

But don’t wait so long you run out of time. You’ll be haunted by it if you can’t or don’t make your peace. Don’t let them waste another day. Get free, then let them back into your life, on your own terms.

It worked for me. I’m traveling this weekend to celebrate my parents’ 50th wedding anniversary with my family. My wife, my son, sharing those memories his grand parents, meeting cousins (truly wonderful people) that I barely know – meetings that NEVER would have happened a decade ago. So what if my parents haven’t talked to each other for two weeks leading up to the event. That’s their problem, it’s no longer mine.

Flop; I value your contributions to the discourse hosted here, and I hope that this can do a little bit to repay the favour. Make your peace before it’s too late; make it, but make it yours.

Good luck,

Alex
M43BC

#88 acdel on 01.21.18 at 1:34 am

#71 For those about to flop

I meant to respond sooner to your predicament regarding your father; this one hit too close to home for me.

I feel that you have a great support system behind you; your wife! All I can say is when he/they are gone he/they are gone; all those little questions you might find meaningless now will mean a great deal once he/they are gone.

Do not know your past, none of my business, but ask the questions now before it is too late and possibly haunts your future!

All the best!

#89 Bad Cowboy on 01.21.18 at 3:36 am

I’ve seen this movie too many times….the yanks will depreciate their currency to juice their economy for a few years…..then, when they’ve near bankrupt commerce around the world they’ll whip the dollar higher suddenly and the same countries they’ve near bankrupt for pennies on the dollar…..rinse….repeat. Today is the set up……tomorrow the takedown….typical US play. It is time to buy the US dollar while it’s on sale.

The Canadian dollar will face the headwind of the Gerald Butts- Trudella de Ville face plant until they’re run out of office. The smart money..hundreds of billions is already flooding out of Canada. I know, the BOC reports foreign buying of Canadian bonds but we all know that is just BS. The Yeudeau government is paying shorts out if the market through BOC subsidiaries on the Caribbean. The national debt is growing exponentially while you’re stupid enough to trust Trudeau with your future.

Trudeau is a pawn. He’s a hand puppet used by the Never Trumpets in the EU and US. They spend Canada’s political capital as if it’s their own. They want global pluralism, white genocide and perpetually low wages. Why do you think salaries are so low on Canada compared to the US?

The play is not in Canada, unless you’re buying companies that take on at least 50% of their income in the US, and there are plenty to choose from. Do your homework carefully. Consider this before buying an S&P etf…..of those 500 companies only 350 are profitable. Why buy 150 losing dogs?

#90 T on 01.21.18 at 5:52 am

Where are all the bitcoin (and altcoin) pumpers? Usually there are several posting their latest fantasy currency update. Especially as it relates to real investment discussions on this blog.

A post of two ago someone mentioned bitcoin, after the massive 50% drop, was on its way back up – passing $13k on its way to $15k.

Well what a terrible call. It’s under $12k now, on its way down. Nothing goes up or down in a straight line, even valueless bits of duplicated data.

I hope you bitfools are learning some lessons, and got out.

#91 Gravy Train on 01.21.18 at 7:06 am

#80 Smoking Man on 01.20.18 at 10:38 pm
“… Grandkids soon. Home schooling them all the way!”
You don’t want to raise them to be dunces like you, do you? Someone will have to notify Family Services!

“… And i [sic] wont [sic] dispoint [sic] my fellow Deplorables.”
At least let the grandkids use a dictionary, so they can soon see how utterly ignorant you are!

#92 Old Ron the Realtor on 01.21.18 at 7:15 am

CANADIAN OIL INDEX TRADING UNDER $38 USD a Barrel as of Friday close.

Quoting WTI price is irrelevant.

#93 Howard on 01.21.18 at 8:05 am

#59 -=jwk=- on 01.20.18 at 7:46 pm

First off, your use of the silly, discredited “tar sands” tells us where you stand on supporting Canadian industry.

Secondly, it’s quite obvious that the purpose of tidewater access is precisely so that Canadian oil can compete in other markets other than the US and, thereby, attain a higher price. Currently there is only one customer for Canadian oil sands production and when you only have one customer, the customer has all the power to call the shots.

The US has supported its fracking industry and other oil & gas activity and as a result significantly reduced its dependence on Mideast petroleum. Why shouldn’t Canada endeavour to do the same?

#94 Howard on 01.21.18 at 8:06 am

Re: commodities

I think the US government shutdown will provide upward lift to gold and silver over the next few weeks. Possibly significant lift.

BTC may even have a dead cat bounce as a result. A hiccup on the way to zero.

#95 I’m stupid on 01.21.18 at 8:33 am

#75 Periscope

Not that I really care what you think because I don’t. But there are way more people that think like I do. Did you miss the last election…ya know when the US elected Trump.
————-

There was once a time when the majority of humans thought it was ok to enslave, rape and torture others. It didn’t make them right.

If you’re going to live with hate in your heart you’ll never be happy in life. What others choose to do or how they choose to live shouldn’t concern you.

The people willing to do mass shooting are more similar in their ideology to you than they are to me. They’re ridged in their thinking. They feel left behind or want a world that no longer exists.

I’ll admit I don’t agree with everything. For example I could never abort an embryo, I wouldn’t be able to live with myself. That doesn’t mean I think it should be banned. The wonderful thing about living in an open society is that you get to decide what’s right and wrong in your life as I do in mine. The only thing you can’t do is force your beliefs onto others or affect the happiness of others with your choices.

#96 Manitoba Whale on 01.21.18 at 9:02 am

Thanks for the analysis, Ryan. I am trying to understand the movements of USD/CAD this really helps.

I have available on a website numerous 10 year government bond spreads of numerous countries, how close is that correlation? Can’t seem to find a lazy way to look up the 2 year without doing the math myself.

Thanks again, MW

#97 West Coast Woman on 01.21.18 at 9:20 am

This Hour Has 22 Minutes’ sketch on Bitcoin and its fluctuating price: https://www.facebook.com/22Minutes/videos/10155159522128339/

#98 Paully on 01.21.18 at 9:33 am

If Canadian crude is so much cheaper than other world supplies, why don’t the Canadian oil companies refine it here? Shouldn’t that lead to huge profits, given the much lower cost base?

#99 Penny Henny on 01.21.18 at 9:51 am

Yes I’m aware of WCS and the current large discount. But the Canadian dollar correlates much better with WTI than WCS. So given this why would I use WCS? So it’s not an “error”. – Ryan L
//////////////////////////

Ryan your reasoning might be the right one but using WTI prices because it correlates better sounds to me as if you are just picking the data points that support the theory. No disrespect intended. (I save that for Garth).

#100 For those about to flop... on 01.21.18 at 10:01 am

Well,I guess I have a lot more in common with some of the regulars on here than I thought I did.

I didn’t mean to pull the conversation off the track ,but I know the boss of this blog is the understanding and compassionate kind.

There are people that come here to try and tip the comments section upside down each day and that’s fine if the boss of this blog wants to entertain them ,but I believe their are a lot of folk like myself who want to try and pass along information that might help someone out.

There is a post up-thread that exemplifies this.
The first contact I had with Zapstrap was a little while ago when they asked about a place to exchange currency in Vancouver.

I stepped in and suggested a place that my wife goes to and Zapstrap did a transaction and seems happy with the results.Zapstrap hopefully got a few extra bones in their pockets and I feel good because I helped out a stranger.Win/win.

I’ve stated before there is always going to be a spike in volatility in the comments section around times as elections and such, and occasionally Garth sends out the message that we are getting a little bit rowdy and pulling the plug is a possibility.

This is one of the reasons I aim to continue with Boom Days in early September each year.Not only to remember Roy H. Stacey and his contributions to this blog, but also as a natural reset where we try to learn a little bit more about each other and it’s as good as time as any for anyone that has been feuding to bury the hatchet and try to be a little kinder to each other because eventually the same fate awaits us all.

In some ways this blog reminds me of a sandcastle.

The guy that constructed it ,built a good moat around it.

Occasionally some big waves hit it and some granules of sand get washed away.

But just when you think everything is going collapse and be swept away ,the owner grabs a bucket of sand and reinforces everything…

M43BC

#101 Smoking Man on 01.21.18 at 10:12 am

Ok I’m a phobe a superphopbe. Now what?

When they lose the debate all they can do is call you names.

I’m cool with it.

Let’s rock….So amped Jorden Patterson tonight in LA
Note to self. Stay sobar and learn.

#102 KLNR on 01.21.18 at 10:18 am

@#75 Periscope on 01.20.18 at 10:16 pm
#43 I’m stupid on 01.20.18 at 5:06 pm

Not that I really care what you think because I don’t. But there are way more people that think like I do. Did you miss the last election…ya know when the US elected Trump.
_____________________________________
no doubt, there are plenty of ignorant folks like yourself out there. I’m sure the yanks won’t make that mistake again. Trump will be lucky to make it through his first term let alone get another.

#103 Timberr on 01.21.18 at 10:28 am

I guess Kelly didn’t get the memo about the low transaction capabilities and high fees of Bitcoin. A $20+ transaction fee for a $15 parking ticket. Not to mention the volatility…brilliant.

Kelly (Ward 40 Scarborough-Agincourt) wants the city to study whether Toronto residents should be able to use cryptocurrency, the electronic currency of which Bitcoin is the most well-known, to pay bills such as property taxes, parking tickets and land transfer taxes.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/cryptocurrency-norm-kelly-1.4488111

#104 Ryan Lewenza on 01.21.18 at 10:32 am

Old Ron the Realtor “CANADIAN OIL INDEX TRADING UNDER $38 USD a Barrel as of Friday close. Quoting WTI price is irrelevant.”

WTI is NOT irrelevant for the Canadian dollar. The CAD/USD exchange rate has a much higher correlation to WTI than WCS so for trying to predict the direction of the CAD you’re better off to use WTI. Global investors when trying to determine whether to invest in Canada are looking at global oil prices. Many don’t even know what WCS is. – Ryan L

#105 Ryan Lewenza on 01.21.18 at 10:43 am

Penny Henny “Ryan your reasoning might be the right one but using WTI prices because it correlates better sounds to me as if you are just picking the data points that support the theory. No disrespect intended. (I save that for Garth).”

There seems to be some confusion over WCS/WTI. My goal of this analysis and post is to try to determine the outlook of the Canadian dollar. In doing so I’ve tested a number of different economic and market statistics to determine which ones best drive/predict the CAD/USD F/X rate. I’m not cherry picking data to support a theory or am I ignorant of our Canadian oil benchmark. I’m trying my best to forecast the direction of our dollar and have found these inputs to be the most important. If beer sales, or Vancouver home prices were the strongest predictor of the CADUSD I would have used them. – Ryan L

#106 Senta on 01.21.18 at 10:45 am

Its been a great bull market but all things eventually come to an end …its obvious to anyone with half a brain that the market is now in blow-out / melt-up phase. How long the mania lasts is anyone’s guess – but I am 95% sure its between a quarter to 2 years. Articles such as these https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-19/-the-intensity-is-crazy-stock-advisers-bask-in-the-bull-market
bring to mind the famous story of Joseph Kennedy (President John F. Kennedy’s father) in the roaring 20’s. In the winter of 1928, Joe Kennedy decided to stop to have his shoes shined before he started his day’s work at the office. When the boy finished, he offered Kennedy a stock tip: “Buy Hindenburg.” Kennedy soon sold off his stocks, thinking:

“”You know it’s time to sell when shoeshine boys give you stock tips. This bull market is over.”
A timely move considering that the stock market would soon resemble the fate of the airship Hindenburg itself. He was about a year and half early, but that move saved his fortune and helped his son JFK become President. Just sub. shoeshine boys for blog dogs.

#107 Ryan Lewenza on 01.21.18 at 10:47 am

Paul “If Canadian crude is so much cheaper than other world supplies, why don’t the Canadian oil companies refine it here? Shouldn’t that lead to huge profits, given the much lower cost base?”

Two key things. First if we can’t get our refined oil products to consumers than it does’t really matter. This is why we need more pipelines to get our landlocked oil products to different markets. Second, given our oil is heavy oil it’s more expensive to refine into gasoline, heating oil etc. so it will always trade at a discount to lighter WTI or brent oil. – Ryan L

#108 millmech on 01.21.18 at 10:57 am

#83 Periscope
Why not have a law where possession of a handgun without a permit is an automatic 10yrs in jail, no time off for good behaviour, you serve the full pull.If your a non PR out you go, too bad
Set up a special court system to expedite these cases in under 30 days and problem would go awayvery quickly.

Do we have a handgun problem? I have never seen one in my life, except on a cop or a Brinks guy. – Garth

#109 Periscope on 01.21.18 at 11:16 am

#102 KLNR on 01.21.18 at 10:18 am and #95 I’m stupid on 01.21.18 at 8:33 am

The last bastion of Liberals when they have lost an argument is to resort to name calling.

I am raising two children I adopted from the conditions produced in the new Canada. Yesterday was Daddy daughter day at Whistler. I will carry the joy that I saw in my daughters eyes all week. Hate in my heart, yea right. I am teaching them there was a better time in Canada, and what they were exposed to was unacceptable. I am working to make Canada great again. As for you, what are you doing, I suspect nothing.
If you want to suck up to Garth, well fine. Just don’t bother me with your trite comments.

Name-calling? I think you labeled another poster ‘stupid’. What, exactly, are you teaching that daughter of yours? – Garth

#110 IHCTD9 on 01.21.18 at 11:34 am

#83 Periscope on 01.20.18 at 11:14 pm

…Garth is right that it would be scary to sell guns at the local hardware store today. But only because of the changes in Canada. Once we punish criminals and put crazy people in looney bins again it will be safe to sell guns in hardware stores again. Sadly, that ship has sailed. So buy some weed and dream about what we had when we were young. Sadly we cannot pass the gentile Canada we grew up in to out children. We have failed.
————

I agree with most of what you say, but I respectfully disagree with the attitude of defeat. I have understood Canadians have been on the wrong track for several decades, and that we realistically can’t expect things to improve without a reset. I see the law of physics: “entropy is always increasing” also seems to describe societies as well. Somewhere along the line, things start to unravel, and there is no going back once it starts.

BUT, at least for now, active shooters, SJW lunacy, climate change zealots, stupid house prices, and just about every other Social ill is primarily concentrated in urban areas. I expect it to stay that way.

The “old Canada” is still alive outside these areas. I know my neighbours well, the young millennials around here have mostly married and started families, guns are everywhere – gun violence is not, no one gives a rip about SJW issues, feminism is muted, the left wingers out here still care about the economy, jobs, and family, houses are affordable, the cost of living is as low as your ability to make it so.

Sometimes, I feel like bailing, but there is no standout place to go that’s any better. I prefer to hang around outside of the stupidity, to ensure my pay check does not fund the stupidity, to vote for a quick end to the stupidity, and lay a strong foundation for myself and my family’s future.

We are indeed going to pay a financial, social and economic price some day, but I’m bloody well not doomed to be a part of it. We know what is coming, we’ve got no excuse to be standing there with our pants down later.

Make a plan, and quietly walk right out of the Colosseum. I’ll be watching my home Province suffering from the sidelines someday, I hope to be with good company when I do.

#111 akashic record on 01.21.18 at 11:36 am

#107 Periscope on 01.21.18 at 11:16 am

#102 KLNR on 01.21.18 at 10:18 am and #95 I’m stupid on 01.21.18 at 8:33 am

The last bastion of Liberals when they have lost an argument is to resort to name calling.

I am raising two children I adopted from the conditions produced in the new Canada. Yesterday was Daddy daughter day at Whistler. I will carry the joy that I saw in my daughters eyes all week. Hate in my heart, yea right. I am teaching them there was a better time in Canada, and what they were exposed to was unacceptable. I am working to make Canada great again. As for you, what are you doing, I suspect nothing.
If you want to suck up to Garth, well fine. Just don’t bother me with your trite comments.

Name-calling? I think you labeled another poster ‘stupid’. What, exactly, are you teaching that daughter of yours? – Garth

=====

All the beauty of identity politics.
Turning good people into zombies.

#112 Smoking Man on 01.21.18 at 11:43 am

#107 Ryan Lewenza on 01.21.18 at 10:47 am
Paul “If Canadian crude is so much cheaper than other world supplies, why don’t the Canadian oil companies refine it here? Shouldn’t that lead to huge profits, given the much lower cost base?”

Two key things. First if we can’t get our refined oil products to consumers than it does’t really matter. This is why we need more pipelines to get our landlocked oil products to different markets. Second, given our oil is heavy oil it’s more expensive to refine into gasoline, heating oil etc. so it will always trade at a discount to lighter WTI or brent oil. – Ryan L

Reason we don’t have a pipeline from Alberta to The east cost refineries.

T2 is bought and paid for by the Saudi Arabia. So obvious.
The middle man. That island he vacations on. Can’t recall the dudes name with such a huge hangover.

T2 and Butts Canadian oil is bad Saudi oil good.
Basterds.

#113 Periscope on 01.21.18 at 11:49 am

#102 KLNR on 01.21.18 at 10:18 am and #95 I’m stupid on 01.21.18 at 8:33 am

My son spent the first 4 years of his life in a room with blackened windows so his drug addicted mother could sleep, and my daughter was passed from relative to relative. When my son came to us he could not speak as no one spoken to him. In the last 6 years I have spent almost $30,000 on specialist to teach him how to speak and overcome his learning disabilities. My daughter was so filled with rage that here screaming sessions would last for hours and she would hurl things at me, scratch me, and pee on the floor defiantly. We have spent many thousands of dollars on counselling to help her. We just celebrated our 5 year together and the transformation has been incredible. As I mentioned before my daughter who is now 8 and I went to Whistler, to see that beaming smile all day was amazing. About a year ago it started to come together and she nicest little girl you’d ever want to meet, and my son is a ray on sunshine with a smile on his face every day. Oh it did I mention they are bi-racial?

So unlike other investments routinely discussed on this blog mine has an infinite return on investment. My wife and I are doing this late in life which means we will be doing it into retirement, and a retirement home in Arizona is not in our future. But the joy of watching my son play hockey or my daughter at gymnastics greatly outweighs any sacrifice.

So I am making a difference, you?

#114 Re., T on 01.21.18 at 12:06 pm

Still in btc , thanks for your concern

My crypto portfolio had a remarkable 2017, and u r correct I did take some profits

Expecting 2018 to also be a great yr

Cheers !!

#115 HaHaHa on 01.21.18 at 12:11 pm

You guys still bitching about lack of pipelines? I am still waiting for the big massive green energy boom that Canada will lead. I mean c’mon people Notley and Trudeau and climate Barbie(yes name calling) said we would. I would love to see inside these clowns portfolios and see how much clean energy stock they hold. example ICLN. Biggest scam played on the worlds dumbest people….. Canadians. Go get a hug from your Prime Minister. losers

#116 IHCTD9 on 01.21.18 at 12:11 pm

#104 Ryan Lewenza on 01.21.18 at 10:32 am
Old Ron the Realtor “CANADIAN OIL INDEX TRADING UNDER $38 USD a Barrel as of Friday close. Quoting WTI price is irrelevant.”

WTI is NOT irrelevant for the Canadian dollar. The CAD/USD exchange rate has a much higher correlation to WTI than WCS so for trying to predict the direction of the CAD you’re better off to use WTI. Global investors when trying to determine whether to invest in Canada are looking at global oil prices. Many don’t even know what WCS is. – Ryan L
————-

For the benefit of those arguing with RL regarding WTI/WCS, focus on his statement here:

“The CAD/USD exchange rate has a much higher correlation to WTI than WCS so for trying to predict the direction of the CAD you’re better off to use WTI.”

Predictions based on historical correlations: WTI has a higher correlation to CAD than WCS.

The blog post was about near future condition of the Loonie.

End of discussion.

#117 OttawaMike on 01.21.18 at 12:18 pm

#112 Smoking Man on 01.21.18 at 11:43 am

Bingo.

Human rights abuses by oil selling regimes in the mid east — good.
Importing by tanker foreign oil without pipelines — good.

Transmountain pipeline operating 65 years without a major spill — bad.

The only substitute for Canadian oil is another country’s oil.Oddly enough, the paid protestors obstructing Canada from receiving the best price for our resources ignore all these tankers… #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/QZYtP1SEdW— Oil Sands Action (@OilsandsAction) January 8, 2018

#118 Stan Brooks on 01.21.18 at 12:25 pm

So Ryan,

You are stating that fundamentals on the downside for the CAD – max household debt, policies, etc. are relevant but will be offset by somehow relevant (only measured in certain ‘normal times’ interval) correlation with (non Canadian) oil on the upside?

I bet my shirt that we sill see a black swan event in the CAD.

We already see signs of it on TSX = up 8 % yearly vs DOW – 28 %, even emerging markets 25 % +
DESPITE THE RISE OF THE COMMODITIES in the last year – oil, gold.

Would this time be different?

You bet.

TSX and CAD it seems are becoming, very very interactive compared to alternatives.

Do we really believe that with the idiotic liberal policies at all levels – assault/holly war on small businesses, increase of minimum wages we can actually attract capital and investments?

I don’t think so.

The numbers seems to agree with me.

#119 OttawaMike on 01.21.18 at 12:25 pm

Millmech said,

Why not have a law where possession of a handgun without a permit is an automatic 10yrs in jail, no time off for good behaviour, you serve the full pull.If your a non PR out you go, too bad
Set up a special court system to expedite these cases in under 30 days and problem would go awayvery quickly.
—————————————————–

Like the war on drugs. A waste of time and resources.
Cops and courts are not the answer. Find out why people are carrying guns and using them.
We have had 18 gunshot incidents in 21 days here in Ottawa but as GT pointed out, it’s still low on my personal list of worries.

#120 IHCTD9 on 01.21.18 at 12:27 pm

#108 millmech on 01.21.18 at 10:57 am
#83 Periscope
Why not have a law where possession of a handgun without a permit is an automatic 10yrs in jail, no time off for good behaviour, you serve the full pull.If your a non PR out you go, too bad
Set up a special court system to expedite these cases in under 30 days and problem would go awayvery quickly.
————-

Harper tried that 10 years ago. 3 year mandatory, minimum jail sentence for possession without a permit. It was struck down as unconstitutional.

Good thing too, there are loads of unregistered, non permitted long guns in Canada sitting in closets rusting. When my grandfather died, we took an arsenal of rifles that were accumulated through years of farming and handed them in. Old 303’s, 22’s, old infantry rifles, and shotguns.

This law could have sent every old retired farmer in the country to jail for years.

#121 Stan Brooks on 01.21.18 at 12:29 pm

TSX and CAD it seems are becoming, very very unattractive compared to alternatives.

Similar to the individual in charge of Ontario and T2 – not sure of their gender identities so no greetings/titles mentioned.

Would they inspire confidence in you as a foreign investor?

?

No? I thought so.

#122 Periscope on 01.21.18 at 12:29 pm

IHCTD9 on 01.21.18 at 11:34 am

Thank you for your thoughts, and your right all is not lost. I travel extensively in Western Canada and the Canada I grew up in is still very much alive. Convincing my wife to move to High Prairie might be a task though. Maybe Red Deer, or Quesnel.

I love your comments on entropy. Are you a chemical engineer, as I am. Very few folks would get what your saying.

I have often though we’d have a much better country if we required 50% of our MPs to have degrees in SMET. It would go a long way to overcoming the silliness I see coming out of Ottawa.

Thanks again.

#123 Stan Brooks on 01.21.18 at 1:03 pm

Did I mentioned NAFTA when considering the future of the CAD?

When the dilettante drama teachers says that things are OK, expect bad news.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/nafta-talks-seen-ending-happily-141704213.html
beware of his band of incompetent. just look at the finance minister.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/montreal-talks-could-signal-beginning-100000767.html

they will run this country into the ground leaving a smoking hole. This is what they are capable of.

#124 I’m stupid on 01.21.18 at 1:16 pm

Periscope

Firstly, what you are doing for your 2 adopted children is honourable.

Drug abuse has been present in society ever since drugs were discovered. The “new Canada” isn’t the reason your children had to endure such hard circumstances. In the same way I can’t blame domestic violence is associated to the “old Canada” you remember. There will always be people that do bad things. My point is that building a society that’s tolerant is important.

What if your son or daughter tell you they’re gay? Would you like society to treat them differently? Would you stop loving them? Should they be cast aside like monsters?

#125 SWL1976 on 01.21.18 at 1:30 pm

#117 OttawaMike

#112 Smoking Man

This whole Alberta dirty oil scam disgusts me. These people protesting don’t even realize where their oil or energy comes from and can’t really see the forest for the trees

Kind of like SCM protesting Tim Hortons from inside of a Mcdonalds, but that was so last week. its probably long since forgotten now

#126 KLNR on 01.21.18 at 1:40 pm

@09 Periscope on 01.21.18 at 11:16 am
#102 KLNR on 01.21.18 at 10:18 am and #95 I’m stupid on 01.21.18 at 8:33 am

The last bastion of Liberals when they have lost an argument is to resort to name calling.
________________________________
Sigh, I hope you see the irony in your post.
Not sure what the argument was or how I lost it.
Not a liberal. or a conservative for that matter.
Ideology is for idiots as they say.

#127 Long-Time Lurker on 01.21.18 at 1:42 pm

#38 Newbie investor on 01.20.18 at 5:51 pm
Hi all, newbie investor here, my grandfather just gave his grandkids all early inheritances, on condition it all has to be invested. I maxed out my tfsa and rrsp contributions. I have 70k left. I just read the book millionaire teacher by andrew hallam. He says buy vanguard index funds and re balance once a year. It sounds to easy to be true? Then garth says buy etfs which are similar. I’m only 23 so I have years ahead of me. Any advice on index funds anyone? Thx

newbie investor

>Here. Read this:

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/09/27/investing-101/

Investing 101 by Garth Turner
September 27th, 2013

Most people suck at investing. The banks know this. Mutual fund salesguys depend on it. Insurance hawkers, too. Plus the cowboys who flog gold and silver. The vast majority of us make two one of two mistakes. We get greedy and end up taking huge risks. Or we get scared and bury money in dead-end GICs. Either way, we lose….

#128 SWL1976 on 01.21.18 at 1:43 pm

#93 Howard

#59 -=jwk=-

First off, your use of the silly, discredited “tar sands” tells us where you stand on supporting Canadian industry.

Secondly, it’s quite obvious that the purpose of tidewater access is precisely so that Canadian oil can compete in other markets other than the US and, thereby, attain a higher price. Currently there is only one customer for Canadian oil sands production and when you only have one customer, the customer has all the power to call the shots.

The US has supported its fracking industry and other oil & gas activity and as a result significantly reduced its dependence on Mideast petroleum. Why shouldn’t Canada endeavour to do the same?

=====

I agree Howard. When I read the post from -=jwk=- I quickly realized that he didn’t really have a clue what he was talking about.

Not all Canadian oil trades at a discount, but most does. Depending on which site and how far along the oil is processed. If the site is equipped with a secondary upgrader they can produce sweet synthetic crude which actually trades at a premium to WTI

Refining oil is expensive and we have the expertise in this country, but unfortunately we do not have the political will. We we do need to cut our oil dependence, but that will not happen over night so why import oil from over seas and depend on other countries to further refine our product

#129 JRT on 01.21.18 at 1:44 pm

I knew a power engineer who worked in the oilfields in Alberta and Nigeria. In Nigeria when you go to work, you are escorted by armed guards. The environmental standards there are virtually non-existent. Alberta has some of the strictest standards in the world. Bitumen also does seep from the ground naturally and always does not come from man made extraction. Why doesn’t phoney Biship Desmond Pu-Pu and David Sepuku protest the standards in Nigeria?

#130 I’m stupid on 01.21.18 at 1:52 pm

Periscope

The reason things seem so bad now is because media coverage is much more extensive. Almost everything is captured on someone’s smart phone. If you look at crime stats it’s actually decreasing. Muggings are almost a crime of the past, mostly due to the fact very few people carry cash anymore. Try to fight the urge to make decisions based on perceived fact. Look at actual statistical evidence to actual crimes.

#131 millmech on 01.21.18 at 1:52 pm

We have a problem with criminals using hand guns ,unless Cops or Brinks Guards are moonlighting for the gangs which should make finding the perpetrators very easy. Just look at the number of shootings, the Vancouver Sun had an article on the rising number and easy availability of handguns. Criminals do not carry them on open display, but it is a tool of their trade for enforcement, intimidation and elimination of completion.
Just read the history of charges for a lot of these people that are involved in the drug trade, a lot of their charges are illegal firearms possession. The police warn you to stay away from these people because they have a high probability of being shot( I have never heard of a drive by beating)
It is an easy tool to use, and is a source of power to those that carry them and it is impersonal weapon, no close quarter use, where as use of physical skills or close quarter weapons takes more training both physically and psychologically to use and be proficient with

#132 aa3 on 01.21.18 at 1:59 pm

Thinking about it there is only 1 real metric for the CDN dollar.

Is all available Canadian labour deployed at its maximum ability towards making things for the American market.

If yes, then the CDN dollar can rise and find out where that is no longer true.

If no, then the CDN dollar must fall until that is true.

#133 Mark on 01.21.18 at 2:31 pm

Thanks Ryan, look forward to article on EM and EAFE index, should be awesome, thanks!!

#134 Ray on 01.21.18 at 2:35 pm

#122 Periscope on 01.21.18 at 12:29 pm
IHCTD9 on 01.21.18 at 11:34 am

Western political leader’s background educations are more likely to be lawyers. Good at arguing. Chinese political leader’s education background seems to be from the STEM, and more likely Engineering. Good at long term planning. United States Pres. Trump and China’s Pres. Xi to me exemplify the range of this spectrum in discretion, and skillfulness of thought. Pres Trump, like most extroverts, believes silence is a sign of weakness. Introverts don’t care about bluster, they just want to get on with the design and implementation of the plan. To me, are so many ironies going on between the US and China.

https://www.quora.com/Why-do-Chinese-political-leaders-have-engineering-degrees-whereas-their-American-counterparts-have-law-degrees

#135 T on 01.22.18 at 12:06 am

#114 Re., T on 01.21.18 at 12:06 pm
Still in btc , thanks for your concern

My crypto portfolio had a remarkable 2017, and u r correct I did take some profits

Expecting 2018 to also be a great yr

Cheers !!

——————

Don’t expect 2018 to bring you the same results. Many are going to chase altcoins down, throwing good money after bad.

#136 Bad Cowboy on 01.22.18 at 5:37 am

#54….Ryan…..love to see a 8 to 10 % drive on the TSX in ’18…exclusive of and in addition to 5% dividends on prefs and other ‘easy’s’….that would be a good year. Keep all moving parts crossed.

#137 Brett in Calgary on 01.22.18 at 11:15 am

A boring analysis, probably means it’s real. Thanks for the info.