By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat
I frequently read New York Times columnist Jeff Sommer. He writes on investment strategies and regularly points out Wall Street’s fallacies. And it’s that time of year, of course, when Wall Street analysts are mandated by irrational convention to trot out their forecasts for the year ahead. However, as Sommer highlights, these forecasts are mostly garbage:
Since the start of 2000, The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has ended in negative territory in five calendar years (2000, 2001, 2002, 2008 and 2015) and has been virtually flat once (in 2011). But while a handful of individual forecasts have, from time to time, predicted mildly negative years for stocks, the Wall Street consensus in every single year since 2000 has predicted a rising market.
Consider the calamity of 2008. … The S.&P. 500 fell 38.5% in the course of those 12 months…the forecast for 2008 was unusually bullish, calling for a rise of 11.1 percent. Wall Street missed the mark by 49 percentage points that year.
So, on that note, let’s pretend that we’re the exception to the rule and do some self-congratulating on our 2017 predictions. Truth is, we had many more hits than misses (btw, you can confirm that we actually made these predictions by going to www.turnerinvestments.ca). We predicted further upside for the S&P 500 (but, in fairness, did underestimate that upside) noting that Fed interest rate hikes would not even come close to derailing the bull market (they obviously didn’t), we predicted oil at US$60/barrel by year-end, which we nailed exactly, and our Canadian preferred share forecast was also spot-on:
We continue to believe that the preferred share market will sustain its momentum in 2017 and we maintain our 18% weighting in most client portfolios. The year-end yield for the sector of 4.9% also remains compelling.
Preferred shares ended 2017 up almost 13% on a total-return basis, which includes that juicy dividend.
Some of our misses included predicting more volatility under a Trump administration with the potential for several equity market pullbacks. Amazingly, volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index, was down significantly y-o-y in 2017 and spent much of the second-half near record-low levels—but, with a president willing to praise white supremacists, who would’ve predicted a year with LESS volatility?
Despite a reasonably good showing for our own predictions, we still recognize that short-term calendar-year forecasts are mostly bunk. So, the absolutely best recommendation that we can make for 2018 is the same one that we made for 2017—maintain a balanced and diversified portfolio:
Trump’s victory was a reminder that the unexpected is a constant feature of capital market investing and also a reminder of the importance of maintaining a balanced portfolio, which permits upside even when it’s not forecast. Remarkably, the S&P 500 traded lower for nine consecutive days just prior to the election as Trump rose in the polls and concerns over Hillary Clinton’s email scandal grew.
Indeed, even on election night, as it became certain that Trump would win, Dow futures were lower by more than 800 points. Clearly, a Trump victory was going to be a market disaster. However, by the end of trading the next day, the S&P 500 was actually higher by more than 1% and the ‘Trump rally’ continued throughout the rest of the year. The S&P 500 gained 5% from election day to year-end including dividends and finished the year up 12% overall. This is why we build balanced portfolios: because we know what we don’t know. As well as we forecast, the unexpected will always occur.
Indeed. I believe that equity market fundamentals remain favourable for 2018 and that the positive momentum will continue. But what do I know? To paraphrase Kirk Lazarus from Tropic Thunder, I’m just a market dude playing a market dude disguised as another market dude.
My best advice for the coming year: ignore my prediction. Resist the urge to massively overweight equities, and stay balanced and diversified.
And, finally, staying balanced: also good advice for tomorrow night.
101 comments ↓
Sorry to say this Doug…..but your blog is becoming more and more irrelevant as only well paid govt workers have any cash to invest. The rest of the plebs send all their extra cash……to the Govt. So maybe Saturdays can be “Govt Worker” Greater Fool day……
Agreed on your balanced portfolio, this comment is in regards to the Screwed Millennials and like minded.
Your attitude really sucks the big one. I can’t believe you actually hold employment.
Do you live in your mom’s basement? Your woe is me attitude is pathetic, show respect for the boomers, they are your parents most likely. If you spoke to you parents the way you type about boomers here you would be thrown out on the street.
You need a serious attitude adjustment.
Hey Doug. Great post as always.
I’m a fairly young investor in their early 30’s who has never endured a bear market in their investing timeline.
I follow the 110-age in bonds advice so have a 20% allocation to bonds in my portfolio.
In a true bear market what can one expect? Equities take a nosedive and negative returns for a few years? From my limited knowledge it appears that 2008 was a one-off as everything recovered extremely fast maybe due to quantitative easing?
Any advice on your mindset and experiences through bear markets would be fantastic knowledge to pass on to this punk millennial. :)
The only way to save the economy is to bring in an extra 10% tax on the 4,800,000 public servants in Canada.We have a $500,000,000,000.00 unfunded pension liability that is growing rapidly and until they pay their fair share the economy will implode(not to mention their pensions)
What is your prediction for weed stocks .
Me thinks its the next big thing .
I bought in already .
Probably going to invest more gambling money too.
As long as we just predicting the future course of the market [ … or the future itself!], but not assuring it, … all will stay cool.
Happy New Year, everybody! Watch yourself out on the road!
F.S. – Comox, BC.
I think equities will continue to outperform.
Some exposure to preferreds is fine.
What bugs is me is why do we spend that much effort to learn investing when the money will go to the government coffins anyway – either as increased taxes on RRSP withdrawals or as some sort of expropriation of registered funds.
It seems return of capital/get out of government registered plans/ might be better than return on capital.
6th? I come here seeking alpha…
Oil and Gold (and likely TSX eg. XEG.TO) will do well in Q1 and into Q2. Back into OIH.US here and I see Investors Business Daily this weekend talking up its components like SLB.US. Drill baby drill.
…
2018 will continue to be a h-ll of a year with 101 new laws passed against us. EVERYTHING is to change – as planned. Pay your taxes on Oxygen, Carbon or whatever other element they dream of.
Nice post Doug my man! I don’t remember the president praising white supremists, from what I gathered he was saying it was their right to protest and condemned antifa for the violence….if someone would post a link or perhaps a quote that shows the president praising the despicable beliefs of the white supremists I would be grateful. Happy new year blog dogs!
Agree with post #1 Fake News Again…
Garths last post (re: MORE Gov’t attack on private sector)was very depressing…as the GOV’TS are increasingly out of touch with reality to the point they are becoming dangerous.
If gov’t don’t reign in the Civil Service at least on the defined benefit issue we are simply creating a mandarin class that sees the private sector as both a threat and cash cow.
This may be changing as I was talking to a friend who’s spouse retired from CUPE job. Apparently Turdeau and Co. has invested a lot of CUPE pension funds in China.
Good luck with that.
Ahhhhh Tropic Thunder.
One of my all time Faves
Some of the best one liners of all time.
The role that Tom Cruise played almost deserved its own movie.
SHOCKING: Canadian Deficit Could Stretch To 2046! – Budget Won’t Ballance Itself!
http://investmentwatchblog.com/shocking-canadian-deficit-could-stretch-to-2046-budget-wont-ballance-itself/
Good advice as always. I just want to add to what you have said by saying that a good financial advisor is as important (indeed more important) than a good mechanic, a good plumber, or any other service that skilled people can be counted on to provide. What you provide is a service and people have to understand that many years of experience and education go into becoming good at what you do.
I stopped working on cars after I bought my first car with ABS. I realized that the knowledge to use and correctly interpret the diagnostic information was well beyond my skill set. Plus, I was not going to risk the consequence of screwing it up. Brakes have to work. Portfolios have to grow.
My financial portfolio is important to me and it needs the care and feeding that only an expert can provide. I don’t have the time nor do I have the expertise to interpret the metric tons of information that any good financial management firm has to wade through. I need strategic thinkers, good tactical advice, and the capable staff to look after the daily operations, all of which lead to the growth of my financial assets.
My hat is off to you and your colleagues. I hope more people take the right step and get a good financial management team in place to help them achieve their financial goals.
Ryan, good post, but I wish you would make that income inequality graph a “sticky”. If you repeat the truth often enough even the stone deaf will have to stop talking.
“Some of our misses included predicting more volatility under a Trump administration with the potential for several equity market pullbacks.”
You were not wrong, just early IMHO.
Garth doesn’t let us dump on foreigners, but maybe you could make an exception:
#170 jane24 on 12.30.17 at 2:40 am
Dictators have their place!
*********
Is ” ! ” British for ” ;-) ” ??
If not, suggest you ring up Nigel Farage and go see “Darkest Hour” at the pictures. I heard it is smashing! Grab a pint at the Hog’s Head and then hop the tube back to Nigel’s to look at his Nazi memorabilia ;-)
If yes, then carry on.
Happy New Year!
My prediction is that the Big Six Canadian banks will do well in a rising interest rate environment. Their asses are covered. By us…….
#3 Shawn on 12.30.17 at 2:53 pm
I’m a fairly young investor in their early 30’s who has never endured a bear market in their investing timeline.
In a true bear market what can one expect? Equities take a nosedive and negative returns for a few years?
—
The average US bear market lasts 18 months with an average decline of 35%.
But relax, since 1945 there have only been 10 of them. And you’re young–markets always recover.
–Doug
Doug, do you have a prediction for how many times the Bank of Canada will raise rates next year?
RBC is predicting 100 bps. Thoughts?
http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/pdf/canadian-housing/housingforecastOct2017.pdf
In Soviet Kanada house own you.
Someone snitched to his Prefecture Block Captain.
Such decadence cannot go unaware.
Appointed Party Faithful too:
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/12/30/homeowners-shed-caught-in-the-middle-of-a-land-dispute-in-vaughan.html
“He came prepared: He had letters from neighbours who said “they did not object to the shed” in his backyard. He had a letter from the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA) saying that it was “not requesting its removal” given the age of the structure. And he even had his purchase papers, which never marked his backyard as OS5.
The committee of adjustment, who are appointed by council, ordered the shed to come down.”
Predictions are hard… especially about the future
A safe one:
The groper in chief will do some thing outrageous…the deplorables will anoint him lord humongous of everything sacred. But we will all be richer at year’s end…go markets go…… except of course for deplorables because they think the markets are rigged by the bilderburgers
“Trump’s victory was a reminder that the unexpected is a constant feature of capital market investing”
**********
Trump’s victory was not “unexpected.” It was made to sound that way in the propaganda filled main stream media.
There is so much better credible journalism online (NO NOT Alex Jones!!!) with real unbiased journalists that actually said Trump was in the lead and expected to win weeks before election.
As a result, I withdrew all my money in the TSX and invested in USA 3 months before election day. I’ve enjoyed huge gains!
The COUP in America is in full force and CBC is playing it’s part in Canada.
#9 Jamie Dimon on 12.30.17 at 3:43 pm
Nice post Doug my man! I don’t remember the president praising white supremists…
—
Do you remember the white supremacists who keep praising him? Wonder why they do that?
–Doug
Was hoping to read your forecast for cryptocurrencies…
In the event of a CC crash, would it take the stock market down with it big time?
0 OttawaMike on 12.30.17 at 12:15 pm
The Metro grocery store where my kid works has decided to add automated check outs and to convert 8 casual part time positions into full time unionized positions.
With benefits and pensions.
In response to the new wage laws.
Source? – Garth
—————–
you can call my kid who is the supervisor or the owner at Glebe Metro.same family ownership for over 100 years.
#8 TurnerNation
You make perfect sense: O2 should be taxed as it’s not only carbon responsible for CO2
Just finished reading the wall street classic – Gerald Loeb’s – the battle for investment survival. Balanced, buy and hold is fine for the retired folks but for someone between 30 and 60, you got to be concentrated in your best ideas. Certainly not more than 10 positions with lots of cash. The central idea of the book is cut your losses fast. Let your winners run but if they start going down – sell first and ask questions later.
Just tallied up my portfolio today. Overall up 21%.
Market turned. 2 weeks ago. very very slowly.
Dow down correlates with Transports down at 55 correlation and growing. Last chance for cheap shorts.
“So, on that note, let’s pretend that we’re the exception to the rule and do some self-congratulating on our 2017 predictions.”
——————————————————————–
The last secular bull market went from (1982 – 2000).
We are currently in a secular bull market that started in 2013. All secular bull markets will go through corrections, which is normal.
Just like you said, the best thing to do is stay invested and be diversified.
The average US bear market lasts 18 months with an average decline of 35%.
But relax, since 1945 there have only been 10 of them. And you’re young–markets always recover.
–Doug
…….
the 35 % by the way is at the very bottom , the 18 th month in this example . not on the 12 th or 6 th
recover ???? …… the next 18 months after the bear is gonna be HUGE … . a HUGE rally comes after the big drop and way more than the drop … .
sorry i don’t have the stats but Doug sure does
#5 tbone
What is your prediction for weed stocks .
Me thinks its the next big thing .
I bought in already .
Probably going to invest more gambling money too.
————-
I think all the easy money has been made and the run up has been fantastic. Keep in mind you are still investing in a mostly illeagal business model, with exception to the medicinal which is not even that big of market. The chances of the government rolling out recreational legalization without any delays or hiccups is slim. Even if and once they do, do people really think the black market is going to roll over and give legit growers all of their market share
If you’re just getting in now expect a bumpy ride. I see 2018 being an excellent year for pot consumers as the battle for market share will play out with an a-bud-dent supply to go around
#21 Doug Rowat on 12.30.17 at 6:48 pm
#9 Jamie Dimon on 12.30.17 at 3:43 pm
Nice post Doug my man! I don’t remember the president praising white supremists…
—
Do you remember the white supremacists who keep praising him? Wonder why they do that?
–Doug
………………………………..
So if you received some unsolicited praise from white supremacists you would jump out your office window. Right?
Liberal hack, Krugman wins worst prediction of 2017!
https://ijr.com/the-declaration/2017/12/1041948-sarah-sanders-delivers-nominee-worst-prediction-year-doozy/
Just par for the course for Krugman, who’s been wrong year after year!
https://www.quora.com/What-things-has-Paul-Krugman-been-very-wrong-about/answer/Yogishchandra-Kamath?share=73f124f8&srid=5V8Kz
#18 TurnerNation on 12.30.17 at 6:13 pm
Karma’s a bitch
I’m happy he’s being taken to court by the developer. Funny!
The US government has identified 29 incidents in 2017, in the US, as terrorist attacks.
Of those 29 incidents 24 of them were performed by alt-right, white supremacist, white hate groups and/or Trump supporters.
The tacit approval from the President for this type of behaviour is well documented and those on this blog who disingenuously pull the mess in the US into the comments section trying to deflect and disarm the truth should be modded into pulp.
The S&P 500, like the Dow, will always go up because weaker companies get removed and stronger ones take their place. While you probably could do this with your own portfolio, you’d have to spend some time at it.
If you held every stock that’s every been added to the S&P or the Dow from the time it got added and then held it forever, you’d be a very poor man. The only way to get close to the returns of the S&P or Dow is to dump stocks when they dump them.
Anyway the most surprising thing about these markets is not that cherry-picked indexes like the S&P and Dow continue to rise, it’s that volatility is so low. I think it’s because all the banks and hedge funds have hired people to build their High Frequency Trading Algorithms that all went to the same schools. If some external shock occurs that the algorithms can’t handle all hell is going to break loose, at least for a while. And if the institutions don’t have the liquidity to handle the margin calls, oh boy. 2008 all over again. Might be a buying opportunity though.
@#229 Lou
“girls will be boys
and boys will be girls
except for Lola
LOL eh?
++++++
Ah good old ‘switch hitter” Lou Reed
“Shaved his legs and he was a she…Hitchhiked her way across…..
“ello LA” (hello Los Angeles)
Lola
#9 – http://www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/537012/
Trump Defends White Nationalists
#33 Ustabe
Have you got a source? All I found on Google was this:
https://www.vox.com/world/2017/10/2/16396612/las-vegas-mass-shooting-terrorism-islam
I don’t know who Vox is.
#18 – just read the article… deplorable… absolutely petty… I hope the developer gets his permits removed and the deadbeat pol should go to jail
#21 Doug Rowat on 12.30.17 at 6:48 pm
#9 Jamie Dimon on 12.30.17 at 3:43 pm
Nice post Doug my man! I don’t remember the president praising white supremists…
—
Do you remember the white supremacists who keep praising him? Wonder why they do that?
–Doug
___________
Do you remember the millions of ILLEGAL aliens praising Hillary running for POTUS? You know what the word ILLEGAL means right Doug?
Those nasty NAZI nutjobs only number in the tens of thousands and are probably “payers of income tax”, compared to 30 million illegals that do not. And I am NOT condoning those “nut job” NAZI’s.
“To paraphrase Kirk Lazarus from Tropic Thunder, I’m just a market dude playing a market dude disguised as another market dude.”
LOL!
An underappreciated movie!
weed leads the TSX, again
back to back years
easy peasy
#33 Ustabe on 12.30.17 at 8:14 pm
The US government has identified 29 incidents in 2017, in the US, as terrorist attacks.
Of those 29 incidents 24 of them were performed by alt-right, white supremacist, white hate groups and/or Trump supporters.
……………………………
I would be interested in seeing the list of 24 terrorist incidents in the USA in 2017 and the alt right white supremacist groups who performed them. Can you educate us ?
#30 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 12.30.17 at 7:48 pm
—
Do you remember the white supremacists who keep praising him? Wonder why they do that?
–Doug
………………………………..
So if you received some unsolicited praise from white supremacists you would jump out your office window. Right?
—
Yeah, I’d be pretty concerned. You’d just soak it up?
–Doug
I will follow more advice given on this site. I will deposit $$ into my Tax free acct. on Jan. 1, and look into getting preffered shares. Could you imagine if The Hildabeast “won”. There would more than likely be a recession. On the NYSE exchange traders were singing “Ding dong the Witch is dead” when they found out Trump won.
#33- Sources please. CBC, NPR, CNN, Global, ABC, NBC, CBS don’t count as they are fake.
This cartoon about T2 explains it all what he wants to do to Canada soon if not already.
https://twitter.com/HenryMakow/status/947143457948209153/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.henrymakow.com%2F
Interesting advice.
I’m looking at railways, alcohol distributors (wine and spirits), banks, and certain types of bond ETFs for my January shopping spree. Avoiding anything tech related and steering wide of cryptos as always.
Most of my oil plays have played out (bought a truckload of Husky preferreds back when everyone was selling them, got over 50% gain on that one plus they kept paying their dividends).
On the lighter (and slightly colder) side, bunch of folks in Toronto who bought houses with “stunning feature” exposed brick walls are now learning the benefits of insulation in Northern climates. When the furnace can’t keep up anymore…….
Pink Snow falling in Burnaby.
These guys are fighting for one of the last chairs as the music seems to be slowing.
Picked up for 2.49 in May 2017 which makes perfect sense for a 1965 build in Burnaby to be worth such a fortune.
Let’s get serious,this place is worth only 250k and not a penny Morley…
M43AZ
7635 MORLEY DR BURNABY paid 2.49 May 2017 ass2.44
Nov 14:$2,788,000
Dec 29: $2,588,000
Change: – 200000.00 -7%
https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/7635-morley-drive
https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzV0EwMQ==
Pink Snow falling in North Vancouver.
Just like the previous guys these buyers thought they would buy a ticket in double overtime to see if they can win the game.
On the hook for 1.61 ,at the current ask the best they could do is take a small loss
2803 Trillium Place, North Vancouver paid 1.61 May 2017
Oct 4:$1,759,000
Dec 29: $1,698,000
Change: – 61000.00 -3%
The more I look at some of these original asks ,you have to question what they were trying to do in the first place.
Some of these amateur investors seemingly started out dreaming of possibly doing the Smith manoeuvre and are ending up doing the Heimlich manoeuvre…
M43AZ
https://www.zolo.ca/north-vancouver-real-estate/2803-trillium-place
https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAyOEpQSg==
My 2018 New Years Predictions:
1) U.S.A. will flourish and will have other countries asking how did they do it.
2) T2 will keep on ignoring his promises and throwing debt towards the deficit until the marijuana income comes in then strut a lot more.
3) World War III is ignited but does not start by North Korea.
4) Nations put fences up to protect the citizens within the countries borders.
5) Everybody starts their own business as taxes are ignored for small businesses, incentive policy for the people. The leaders woke up and realized how important sb is to the nation.
Happy, Happy Balancing (and you thought I was going to say Happy Housing Crash) and a Happy New Year!!!
I predict the market will fluctuate. Honestly, the large growth stocks that are the main component of the S&P 500 are looking pretty richly valued (if you care about old fashioned things like what you pay for earnings). Anyone predicting high 10 year return for US equities from here skipped the history portion of investing school.
The real interesting trade in 2018 will be whether a big shift towards bonds occurs.
Good advice to stay invested with a well thought out asset allocation. Really the only game worth playing.
I think it is time to take profits. Does not take a rocket scientist to tell you that South Korea and China could take a 38 percent swan dive during 2018.
Pontificating a very difficult investment year.
#35 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.30.17 at 8:39 pm
@#229 Lou
“girls will be boys
and boys will be girls
except for Lola
LOL eh?
++++++
Ah good old ‘switch hitter” Lou Reed
“Shaved his legs and he was a she…Hitchhiked her way across…..
“ello LA” (hello Los Angeles)
Lola
————–
Those were the 60s and 70s.
Good times.
T2 is just trying to go back to the future.
Trump is the first President in 40 years not to visit Canada in his first year in office.
I think let’s cut off the oil until he comes begging on his knees.
The maryjane market is a dud for the govt. and company investors. Don’t know what they are smoking, but with all the regs and taxes that will boost the retail price of legit grass, no-one will compete with underground prices. They may try, in their wisdom, to police things. Policing will cost huge money however, so won’t wash with taxpaying public. It’s going to be a bong show. I’ll see myself out…
Just do the opposite of what smoking man thinks – guaranteed returns.
Doug thank you for these posts. I don’t usually respond as life is frantic on the weekends but they are appreciated. Happy new year to all on this blog but please stay safe in your very cold weather. Apparently the worse since 1970 when I was a child growing up in rural Quebec. I remember those Canadian winters. Face froze to scarf. Eyes froze shut waiting for the school bus.
Any thoughts on the euro for 2018 as the Italian election is on March 4th and the 5 Star Movement is in the lead and very anti-euro/EU? We have euro bills to pay in 2018. Thanks.
Here are the headlines or leads, just copy/paste into Google and read on. I’m not doing the work you refuse to do by hyperlinking for you.
MOST TERRORISTS IN THE U.S. ARE RIGHT WING, NOT MUSLIM: REPORT
Most Of America’s Terrorists Are White, And Not Muslim
Trump’s White House Is Turning a Blind Eye to White-Supremacist Terrorism
Majority of terrorists who have attacked America are not Muslim, new study finds
U.S. sees 300 violent attacks inspired by far right every year
A Dark and Constant Rage: 25 Years of Right-Wing Terrorism in the United States
The Numbers Don’t Lie: White Far-Right Terrorists Pose a Clear Danger to Us All
White American men are a bigger domestic terrorist threat than Muslim foreigners
Analysis: Deadly threat from far-right extremists is overshadowed by fear of Islamic terrorism
FBI considers white supremacist groups as much of a threat as Isis
The Most Dangerous National Security Threat That Donald Trump Is Ignoring
ADL Says Right-Wing Terror As Dangerous As ‘Radical Islam’ — But Often Ignored
Here are some of the far-right murderers and terrorists who have publicly supported Trump
FBI warned of white supremacists in law enforcement 10 years ago. Has anything changed?
Homegrown Extremists Tied to Deadlier Toll Than Jihadists in U.S. Since 9/11
RIGHT-WING AND ‘RADICAL ISLAMIC’ TERROR IN THE U.S. ARE EQUALLY SERIOUS THREATS: ADL REPORT
The Growing Right-Wing Terror Threat
Trump’s Focus on ‘Radical Islam’ Downplays Growing Risk From Right-Wing Extremism, Experts Fear
Terrorism by another name
2017 looking back …….
The human race began to devolve.
An orangutan assumed leadership of the free world.
Vladimir Putin died (laughing)
Justin Trudeau became a working class hero.
His last interview was not something to see.
Nationalism became a fad, again.
Fear of Dying at the Hands of Terrorists took the #1 bestseller spot from Joy of Cooking.
The colour of the year was blue.
For the first time the world had too much money.
Not for the first time some people had too much money.
Brigette DePape became a household name, again.
We began to understand what that crazy chick was on about.
Canadians began to build igloos on spec.
Rex Murphy grew gills.
I have to say, the logic of some people saying “Trump supports white nationalists” is so ignorant it hurts.
Please further your political understanding beyond reading CNN headlines.
Pandora’s Predictions for 2018
Prolonged internet outages will spark a resurgence in parlour games.
I Spy & Blind Man’s Buff (Russia)
Whose line is it, anyways? (China)
Pin the tail on the donkey. (USA)
Change Seats! aka Do you love your neighbour. (USA)
Are you there, Moriarty. (N. Korea)
The Minister’s Cat. (Canada)
Warmer, colder. (Climatologists)
The price is right. (Loblaws et al)
Fictionary. (popular in markets worldwide)
I was surprised by the tepid reaction by the S&P 500 to the passage of the tax cut in the US. If that enormous gift to corporate American didn’t impress the markets what can? Given the reversal of quantitative easing, higher interest rates, the failure of NAFTA négociations and the high likelihood of a war in Korea I am not so optimistic.
Market anticipate more than they react. The tax cuts were baked into prices long ago. – Garth
Trump is the first President in 40 years not to visit Canada in his first year in office.
I think let’s cut off the oil until he comes begging on his knees.
Lol we stop revenue from selling oil to the US and we will be the ones on our knees lol
#56 jane24 on 12.31.17 at 1:51 am
Eyes froze shut waiting for the school bus
**********
That explains it! Now I feel terribly awful.
#40 Karma on 12.30.17 at 9:06 pm
“To paraphrase Kirk Lazarus from Tropic Thunder, I’m just a market dude playing a market dude disguised as another market dude.”
LOL!
An underappreciated movie!”
And remember, never go full retard when investing!
I think it’s more useful to determine what is not being predicted than simply making modest market predictions like most Wall St. analysts do.
So what is currently not being anticipated by the majority?
1. A repeat of 2017 (20%+ S&P500 with low volatility)
2. A decline in the price of oil and commodities
3. Gold below $1000 by year end
4. Moderate and healthy Fed rate decisions
5. A continued synchronous global bull market in equities
6. An increase in the slope of the yield curve
7. Nasdaq >10000
8. Bitcoin <10000
9. Flat Canadian housing prices (i.e. no story there)
10. An increase in Trump's approval rating
Let's see how many of the above are true by the end of 2018.
11. A rise in USD (high 90s on a trade weighted basis)
Happy New Year, gang!!
I went to the theatre a couple days ago. The cashiers that print tickets are now gone. They were replaced by the automated kiosks. The theatre I went to had 10 kiosks and 1 attendant to help people that were having a tough time. I think the minimum wage hike will have a huge impact on those that are between the ages of 16-24.
Typically teens and young adults have minimum wage jobs as they go to school. Raising the minimum wage will accelerate the rate of automation for a lot of these jobs. This will either increase the size of student loans (increased burden for young adults) or increase household debt levels (already at astronomical levels).
It’s going to be interesting to see what the youth unemployment rate will be going forward.
No hope for humans…
all that processing power and what, used for bitcon and fake celebrity porn… oh the horror
https://linustechtips.com/main/topic/872276-ai-assisted-fake-porn-are-being-used-by-people-on-reddit-for-self-completion/
interesting infographic
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/editorial/infographic-the-everything-bubble-is-ready-to-pop#
You guys need to all get over bashing Trump. None of you seem to care that the Clintons are crooks or Obama was a schill. Case in point…. Climate change Obama signed off on the ban to export American oil. They now export oil to India. Fact check that. Who has benefited? Yes no protests in Texas, or North Dakota. Frac Frac Frac baby. And Keystone was canceled by him. Fact check that also. So as we are about to pay carbon taxes to keep warm at -30 remember that former climate change president did not impose one. Fact. Canadians are weak and stupid. Dummies can’t even figure out how to make money off the weed stocks. Libtards handed me a gift and this boomer has done good. Thats the difference kids. A conservative makes lemonade outta lemons. Oh and the gains are locked in so before the portfolio manager types respond their usual comebacks about a bubble. Thanks Justin…oops
Hi Doug
You’re a numbers geek like I am.
If you’re interested dissect Bitfinex.
Bitfinex has in its possession 226 000 bitcoin equivalents
Bitcoin ethereum etc etc. How did I get to this number
The hack in 2016 where 120 000 bitcoins were taken. That represented a 36% haircut to everyone on the exchange.
Tether has a market cap of 1.36 billion owned by bitfinex.
226 000 bitcoin equivalents @ 13 000 = $2.938 billion
1.36 billion tethers, since tether is valued at 1-1 usd most tethers are used to buy bitcoins and equivalents.
I think the hack that took place stole all bitcoins bitfinex had. Using tethers they were able to hide the fact that they were bankrupt. They began manipulating the price using tether and since they dominate all other exchanges it was all made possible.
I could be wrong, I am after all stupid!
@#68 Im Stupid
“It’s going to be interesting to see what the youth unemployment rate will be going forward.”
+++++
Yup.
Just look at France. Another “1st world economy” foisting endless socially correct rules on a struggling economy.
Youth unemployment 25%
The rush towards automation will continue to accellerate.
Cashiers, Tellers, Receptionists….toast.
Soon to be joined by drivers, sorters/stackers, telephone marketers(hopefully), assembly line workers, on and on and on……just when the boomers are retiring….
Even Millenial’s bratz are totally screwed,,,,,,,
Been a good year lads.
Over 4000% on my Cryptocurrency portfolio.
720% on my most recent bet since October, REQ token, which is the PayPal 2.0 based in blockchain.
Can we get a post on the mechanics of tax havens? I don’t believe the Government of Canada deserves a cut of my after-tax money which I exposed to risk.
Another Day another article about foreign ownership in Canada, Australia, New Zealand and how the respective govts are ( or are NOT) dealing with it….
http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-vancouvers-housing-crisis-revealed-by-looking-to-china-australia-new-zealand
Methinks the politicians are beinning to realize this may be a much bigger voter issue than their politically correct agenda ?
Gregor(The Dim) Robertson is toast in the next municipal election.
Good riddance.
#68 I’m stupid on 12.31.17 at 9:33 am
It’s going to be interesting to see what the youth unemployment rate will be going forward.
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It will be huge. It will kill employment for young people working to help pay their way through school or to work to take the pressure off the parents that cannot afford all the new toys and latest fashions to buy their kids. The parents will be the ones that will be paying for this.
Recent Sale Report.
This one sold 12 days ago.
2954 w 14th Ave,Vancouver.
Asking 2.48
Sold for 2.24
2016 Tax assessment ….2.75
2017 Tax assessment….2.59
So obviously I put up two tax assessments, just as an example one of the ones that came down.
2017 assessments are now up on the database for anyone curious in knowing what a property is assessed at.
Looked at a few of my Pink Snow cases,there was some wild swings in some of the assessments and I’m sure for some people it will help and others it will hinder…
M43AZ
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2954-w-14th-avenue
https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMEVZMw==
#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.31.17 at 12:37 am
Trump is the first President in 40 years not to visit Canada in his first year in office.
I think let’s cut off the oil until he comes begging on his knees.
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Now that was funny. Needed a good laugh.
#62 Leo Trollstoy on 12.31.17 at 8:29 am
Trump is the first President in 40 years not to visit Canada in his first year in office.
I think let’s cut off the oil until he comes begging on his knees.
Lol we stop revenue from selling oil to the US and we will be the ones on our knees lol
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I know it won’t be easy, but we need to abandon our one trick pony economy.
Let’s start producing stuff and……
Let’s make Canada strong again.
#77 Ronaldo on 12.31.17 at 11:13 am
#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.31.17 at 12:37 am
Trump is the first President in 40 years not to visit Canada in his first year in office.
I think let’s cut off the oil until he comes begging on his knees.
————————————————————–
Now that was funny. Needed a good laugh.
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And me thinks we should also build a wall to keep out these pesky Americans who want our free health care.
The B.C. NDP is lowering MSP premiums.
Take that Trump.
Seriously,
I think China will overtake the US in 2018.
And Trump will do something really stupid that will cost him his job.
#57 Ustabe on 12.31.17 at 3:30 am
Here are the headlines or leads, just copy/paste into Google and read on. I’m not doing the work you refuse to do by hyperlinking for you.
MOST TERRORISTS IN THE U.S. ARE RIGHT WING, NOT MUSLIM: REPORT
Most Of America’s Terrorists Are White, And Not Muslim
Trump’s White House Is Turning a Blind Eye to White-Supremacist Terrorism
Majority of terrorists who have attacked America are not Muslim, new study finds
U.S. sees 300 violent attacks inspired by far right every year
A Dark and Constant Rage: 25 Years of Right-Wing Terrorism in the United States
The Numbers Don’t Lie: White Far-Right Terrorists Pose a Clear Danger to Us All
White American men are a bigger domestic terrorist threat than Muslim foreigners
Analysis: Deadly threat from far-right extremists is overshadowed by fear of Islamic terrorism
FBI considers white supremacist groups as much of a threat as Isis
The Most Dangerous National Security Threat That Donald Trump Is Ignoring
ADL Says Right-Wing Terror As Dangerous As ‘Radical Islam’ — But Often Ignored
Here are some of the far-right murderers and terrorists who have publicly supported Trump
FBI warned of white supremacists in law enforcement 10 years ago. Has anything changed?
Homegrown Extremists Tied to Deadlier Toll Than Jihadists in U.S. Since 9/11
RIGHT-WING AND ‘RADICAL ISLAMIC’ TERROR IN THE U.S. ARE EQUALLY SERIOUS THREATS: ADL REPORT
The Growing Right-Wing Terror Threat
Trump’s Focus on ‘Radical Islam’ Downplays Growing Risk From Right-Wing Extremism, Experts Fear
Terrorism by another name
…………………………………….
Try some BC Skunk Bud #3 and let us know how u feel next week.
So desperate. You get called out on the fake news and that is the best you can do.
Stick with trying to spin your investment success. How have the prefs done over 5 years since you went all in?
After being in the financial markets for 45+ years my predictions for 2018 are: the markets will go up, or go down, or stay the same, and I have never been wrong.
Have a Happy and Prosperous New year blog dogs.
New Years 2018
US stock Market up.
Canadian economy/dollar swirling the drain.
China will continue to militarize the South China Sea.
North Korea will fire off ICBM’s during the Winter Olympics( who was the idiot that picked South Korea for 2018?).
Canadian Politicians will continue to dither and hand wring over foreign investment.
Realtors will recieve the fiscal enema they deserve.
Garth will break all previous “delete” records.
Screwed Canadian Millenial will rent his first apt.
US Republicans will be hammered in midterm elections.
Russia will “officially” invade Ukraine.
Putin will win “unopposed” in national elections after jailing or burying all who oppose him.
Trump will fire all his staff and hire all his children.
The FBI will hire another chief to investigate Trump.
Smoking Mans script will be bought by Disney and shelved.
Pink Unicorn fartz will be worth more than Bitcoin.
PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT
Just remember kids, if you look around at whatever establishments you happen to frequent and see no employees, the (unpaid) employee is you!
“Economisseds”…………….that is the correct spelling of the job title.
#82 BS on 12.31.17 at 11:46 am
“So desperate. You get called out on the fake news and that is the best you can do.”
David Duke? Maybe your alt right propa-goop levels needs adjustment?
After reading many of the comments posted over the last few days I just want to wish everyone a happy New Year and take these thoughts to bed with you tonight/ tomorrow morning:
– in the US for the decade before the Great Depression workers wages were stagnant while corporate profits were phenomenal, and a lot of borrowing and stock market hanky pankey was going on. Read into this what you will.
– sadly as one commenter alluded to, Government employees are the best situated to take advantage of any real estate situation with their secure jobs and even more secure pensions. They can take risks knowing they still have a job and pension unlike most of us who create the wealth and pay the taxes, not live off them. Please don’t comment about how Gvnt employees pay taxes also, it’s a wash and a topic for another day.
– Taxes should be based on what benefit people generate for society. Eg: you run a garage, put people to work and provide a necessary service, low taxes. Your flip real estate or are a stock trader, high taxes.
– For long term prosperity, invest in Canadian banks, they are the most protected industry in the world.
Remember: How you spend New Years Eve and Day sets the tone for the rest of the year, so give these thoughts some consideration and clean your house for the New Year.
–
..”Japan learned this lesson in the Nineties
As the price of land went up, banks lent more money than people could afford to pay interest on. Eventually, no one could afford to buy any more land, demand fell off, and prices dropped accordingly. But the debt remained in place. People owed billions of yen on homes worth half that—homes they could not sell.
Many commercial owners simply went into foreclosure, leaving the banks not only with“non-performing loans” that were in fact dead losses but also with houses no one wanted—or could afford—to buy. And that lack of incoming interest also meant that banks had no more reserves to lend, which furthered the downward spiral. Britain’s similarly debt-burdened economy inspired a dry witticism: “Sorry you lost your job. I hope you made a killing on your house.”
https://www.scribd.com/document/20337262/Road-to-Serfdom-Michael-Hudson
The Lost Science of Classical Political Economy
http://michael-hudson.com/2009/12/the-lost-science-of-classical-political-economy/
=====================
A journey through a land of extreme poverty: welcome to America
The UN’s Philip Alston is an expert on deprivation – and he wants to know why 41m Americans are living in poverty. The Guardian joined him on a special two-week mission into the dark heart of the world’s richest nation
by Ed Pilkington
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/dec/15/america-extreme-poverty-un-special-rapporteur
The Ten Commandments were about debt
People tend to think of the Commandment ‘do not covet your neighbour’s wife’ in purely sexual terms but actually, the economist says it refers specifically to creditors who would force the wives and daughters of debtors into sex slavery as collateral for unpaid debt.
“This goes all the way back to Sumer in the third millennium,” he said.
http://michael-hudson.com/2017/12/he-died-for-our-debt-not-our-sins/
#82 BS on 12.31.17 at 11:46 am
#21 Doug Rowat on 12.30.17 at 6:48 pm
#9 Jamie Dimon on 12.30.17 at 3:43 pm
Nice post Doug my man! I don’t remember the president praising white supremists…
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Do you remember the white supremacists who keep praising him? Wonder why they do that?
–Doug
So desperate. You get called out on the fake news and that is the best you can do.
Stick with trying to spin your investment success. How have the prefs done over 5 years since you went all in?
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i know it from fisrt hand, worked out like magic for me holding preferds. now you have your question answerd.
https://imgur.com/a/pSuAC
Doing a big road trip in the good Ole USA. Lots of positive economic activity in the 9 states we visited.Friggin cold:-)
Small example of the can do attitude of the American mindset. Idiot me Scratched the bumper of the rental car (enough that I would have been dinged hard $600 likely.)
Texted a dude in Texas while in Tennessee. He came to my hotel this AM (new yrs eve) in his equipped van. cleaned, buffed, painted, clear coat. Looks new. His quote based on the pic I sent was $250, once he saw it $125 . 45 min. I tipped $20 He was really appreciative.
Try that in Canuckistan
Happy New Year!!!!!
@#91 rainclouds
Yep.
Be hard pressed to get that kind of service in Canada.
Well done!
Avoided the “damaged” rental car gouge.
#70 HaHaHa on 12.31.17 at 9:40 am
You guys need to all get over bashing Trump. None of you seem to care that the Clintons are crooks or Obama was a schill.
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Why would anyone care about people who aren’t president more than the guy who is?
#18 Turner Nation
That shed is just a minor symptom, of the Greenbelt Natural Heritage designation’s impact. 100,000’s of acres of productive farmland now technically restricted from agricultural use. The Greenbelt designation is about to grow again, taking in nearly all of Simcoe County. Everything that is within the Niagara Escarpment Designation is included in the Greenbelt. Most of that is also designated Natural Heritage. That shed is probably included in Natural Heritage designation. If so the OMB appeal will be a waste of time and money.
#82 BS on 12.31.17 at 11:46 am
So desperate. You get called out on the fake news and that is the best you can do.
Stick with trying to spin your investment success. How have the prefs done over 5 years since you went all in?
—
Around here I think this counts as “Happy New Year!”. So, same to you, as it were.
–Doug
#83 Old Dog on 12.31.17 at 12:30 pm
After being in the financial markets for 45+ years my predictions for 2018 are: the markets will go up, or go down, or stay the same, and I have never been wrong.
Have a Happy and Prosperous New year blog dogs.
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We are on the same page dude. I have predicted 9 of the last 3 recessions.
It appears Trump is trying to kill the U.S. dollar to stave off an all-out stock market crash and create inflation. Like the end of 2017 it appears alternate investments to stocks will be the big winners. Cryptocurrencies, gold and silver. Base metals might have a better year than 2017 but demand will still be lower. The Canadian dollar should get pummeled as the Bank of Canada rate has already topped out.
Re: #80 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.31.17 at 11:42 am
I hope you’re right. I hope and pray everyday Trump gets impeached.
Re: #5 tbone on 12.30.17 at 3:07 pm
Worst than stemcell stocks. I’m short an entire array of marijuana stocks.
Happy New Year Doug
Thanks for all the info over the year.
Happy New Year Garth and Family
Happy New Year Blog Dogs!
Last Year was on hell of a ride.
Looking forward to a prosperous 2018