Extremes

In a region of six million people, where everyone lusts for a new, detached home, a mere handful sold last month. Three hundred and twelve, a 58% decline year/year. Even more shocking is that new house construction has collapsed by 82% from 2016 levels, and runs at 75% below the 10-year average. It’s a hard-hat disaster.

Why?

Builders know. Industry boss Bryan Tuckey puts it this way: “People simply cannot afford them.” No wonder. The average new detached house sells for $1.2 million, which is 25% more than last year. When you add in condos, towns and semis, the sticker shock grows – up more than 42% in twelve months.

The industry blames excessive government regs, restrictive land use and zoning policies, insane building codes and anti-sprawl measures which have inflated land prices. True enough. But the collapse of the construction business is just another indicator that residential real estate is going over a cliff, even in the nation’s biggest, craziest market.

Slagging sales for new-builds underscores a simple fact: as house-horny as people may be, they’re unwilling or unable to float more credit. Days ago RBC gave us news we already knew – real estate affordability is at the worst level ever, and is about to sink further as interest rates increase in 2018 and the stress test arrives. Meanwhile household debt is at a new level. People have borrowed themselves into a stupor, totally ignoring at least three years of warnings that low rates couldn’t last.

The chart below is interesting. Economists at National Bank wanted to know what the interest rate increases destined for 2018 would do to household finances in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver – our three largest housing markets (in that order). It traces the impact of a lowly 1% increase in rates on monthly incomes (the Bank of Canada raised the cost of money a half point this year and will do so again – at least – in 2018). The conclusion: Toronto – fugly; Montreal – pas de problème; Vancouver – pooched.

“It’s important to keep in mind that those two markets (GTA and YVR) are not representative of the country as a whole,” says the bank. “The Toronto and Vancouver markets have spilled a great deal of ink, but in the country’s other urban centres housing remains relatively affordable.” This means if you live in Halifax, Moncton, Quebec City, Windsor, Winnipeg, Edmonton or Kamloops, the rate pop won’t mean much. But the stress test might.

The economists also make this key point: never before has residential real estate constituted such a big chunk of the Canadian economy. And it’s no coincidence that prices have never been this high, nor households this much in hock at a time when rates are this low. It’s all related. And not good.

Given that, these guys say rising rates will have a far bigger impact now than they would have had two decades ago. “In some markets, notably Vancouver and Toronto, a rate hike could prevent new buyers from entering the market. Consider the effect on new buyers of a 1-point increase in mortgage rates in some cities. Twenty years ago such a hike would have increased the burden of debt service by 4% of median income. Today it would be twice that.”

To further bum out the real estate bulls, consider this: almost half of all the existing mortgages in Canada (which total almost %$1.5 trillion) will come up for renewal during 2018. A slew of those were taken out in 2013 at an average rate of 2.6% – or about 1% less than will be the case by this coming summer. That is exactly the scenario depicted in the chart above.

As for the stress test, new buyers will have to add 2% to the posted rate in order to clear the hurdle. As detailed here previously, that’ll knock out somewhere between 5% and 20% of the newbies, depending on which expert you pick.

So, figure it out. Houses people already can’t afford, even at cheap rates. Central bank increases all but certain. Household finances squished. Seriously higher qualifications for borrowers. And higher taxes coming in the T2 budget.

I didn’t even mention that most of the country is minus 30 this week. We might not be alive by April, anyway.

178 comments ↓

#1 tkid on 12.28.17 at 5:36 pm

Holy crow, dude, that photograph ….

#2 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 12.28.17 at 5:43 pm

Fugly and pooched……Precisely why interest rate hikes will be delayed as long as possible and will be as minuscule as possible.

The BoC follows the Fed with a correlation of 92%. No, it’s not different this time. – Garth

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.28.17 at 5:46 pm

Happy Housing sales Crash Everyone…….

#4 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 12.28.17 at 5:54 pm

its cool out here … real estate too
at least there are no mosquitoes.

#5 Nick on 12.28.17 at 5:58 pm

There’s no way mass panic doesn’t set in by July. Shit hasn’t been selling for months now. That’s pre b20. Wasn’t selling when rates were sub 3%. They are now above 3% and heading higher. Even a quarter point on a big mortgage can hurt.

We go into 2018 with huge active listings and houses not selling. How can it possibly get better? Especially when spring is typically a period with a lot of new listings ?

#6 Proud Claustrophobe on 12.28.17 at 5:58 pm

Nothing will change in Vancouver. There are a billion customers for Vancouver homes.

Price reductions are outpacing increases four to one. – Garth

#7 Lost in Space on 12.28.17 at 5:59 pm

Greetings earthlings from Europe! Not much happening here in Germany. Prices are up 25% over 4 years and people are freaking out, a bubble they say, HA, just visit Canada or Australia.

Well it’s midnight here so good night everyone

#8 Jungle on 12.28.17 at 6:01 pm

Holy crap that roof topper is nuts and stupid. Didn’t one just die last week?

And too cold to go outside, lol

#9 Irish Stew on 12.28.17 at 6:04 pm

Forget housing…..I get it, people want a fancy house to show off.

I am more bothered by Liberal policies and raising taxes.
Getting tiresome working hard so other do not have to.

#10 Linda on 12.28.17 at 6:05 pm

Minus 30 just ensures Canadians don’t get too soft:) The housing outlook does look bleak, will be interesting to see what will occur come spring 2018. In other news, Bitcoin is still losing steam. Here is hoping my pension plan didn’t invest in that sucker (they DID invest in Bre-X, but fortunately sold before the fraud came to light).

Anyone have any 2018 predictions they’d like to share? I predict: taxes will continue to increase; governments will continue ‘divide & conquer’ tactics (they work!) in order to enact legislation that will ultimately be to everyone’s detriment & finally, climate change will be acknowledged as ‘real’ by all insurers, regardless of what the official government stance is & that acknowledgement will be reflected in insurance policies cost & coverage (or lack thereof).

#11 kbean on 12.28.17 at 6:07 pm

So, figure it out. Houses people already can’t afford, even at cheap rates. Central bank increases all but certain. Household finances squished. Seriously higher qualifications for borrowers. And higher taxes coming in the T2 budget.

Agree, and I think this is why they will reserve course later in 2018 and cut, or at the very least proceed very slowly.

#12 Toronto on 12.28.17 at 6:13 pm

So did prices go up this year or not?

Nope, and down 12% from April. – Garth

#13 Kelsey on 12.28.17 at 6:16 pm

Must be all that Global Warming…err “Climate Change” making it so cold.

It’s warmer in Siberia because of changing weather patterns. So, yes. – Garth

#14 The real Kip on 12.28.17 at 6:17 pm

“I didn’t even mention that most of the country is minus 30 this week. We might not be alive by April, anyway.”

I hope it stays -30 until April, the sledding and ice fishing is excellent on Lake Simcoe. It should freeze right over soon. Yea!

#15 Entrepreneur on 12.28.17 at 6:18 pm

Houses were not affordable even four years ago but the banks said so, really. Using housing for the economy should be no, no. Should let it fall to allow critical thinking in the play.

I agree with #147 Lorne on proportional representation and would add creative/critical thinking which the political system lacks.

And the games to win the election, so sad.

#16 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 12.28.17 at 6:20 pm

GTA prices will CRASH 50% and prices will still be overvalued at 4X income vs 8X income right now. Shysters have ruined tens of thousands of lives. Housing are rioting on the market for MONTHS and MONTHS now. BaHahahahahaha this crash is just starting. Many SHYSTERS will never make another sale again.

Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#17 For those about to flop... on 12.28.17 at 6:24 pm

#6 Proud Claustrophobe on 12.28.17 at 5:58 pm
Nothing will change in Vancouver. There are a billion customers for Vancouver homes.

Price reductions are outpacing increases four to one. – Garth

/////////////////////////////

Where were the billions of buyers to save these people from taking a loss?

At the mall…

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

For those about to flop…
Recent Sale Report.

This one is Pink Snow ,but because it is so fresh of a sale I will have to re-visit it although it has been realtor verified already.

It ain’t official until it’s official.

The details…

2306 w 12th Ave,Vancouver

Paid 2.93 in April 2016

Originally asking 3.28 then3.19 then 3.08 then 2.99

Just sold for 2.88

Tax assessment 2.81

And so another one where the numbers don’t look too bad ,but then Mr Expenses comes and rifles through your sock draw to take the 225k you had laying around ,you will be glad you stocked up on frozen vegetables for the holidays to apply to your forehead…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2306-w-12th-avenue

#18 Dimitri is the Lover of all submissive Women on 12.28.17 at 6:26 pm

I’d pay C$1,200,000 to stand on top of a pole with a hawt Sao Paulo Brazilian chick on my shoulders.

#19 Haha on 12.28.17 at 6:26 pm

Global cooling they meant, right?

#20 Dimitri is the Lover of all submissive Women on 12.28.17 at 6:31 pm

I personally know men from the Greater Toronto Area who liquidated all of their assets in Canada, and PERMANENTLY left Canada for Latin American countries without looking back.

The last time I heard from one of them was today. He was asking me if I was enjoying the -25 degree windchill & way colder attitudes from the women in Canada LOL….That ****** lol…

#21 Dolce Vita on 12.28.17 at 6:34 pm

By mid-2018 it will be all over, even in YVR that still thinks offshore investors will rescue them.

YVR, 416 price drops of 50% by the end of 2018 if not more since the amateur “homes are their retirement package” investors will flee for the turnstiles…first to do so as they always have in past housing crashes with a “cash in while you still can, drop your drawers on the way to the bottom” mentality.

What will be epic is people doing what they can to get out of underwater unaffordable mortgages. THAT will be the real story of YVR, 416 RE in 2018.

If you believe Terrio and other insolvency advisors, if you have no wealth left to speak of, it will cost little to do so and walk away with a clean slate.

No one will lend you money on an asset that is losing value by the day and if they do, it will be on a deeply discounted RE value meaning much, much more cash up front…which people as Garth points out today, they will not have.

#22 VanMan on 12.28.17 at 6:38 pm

All logical facts and believable assumptions. However, it’s been more of the same for so long now that “what’s to come” is almost become meaningless.

I do truly believe that Vancouver is different. Many others do too. There are just too many factors at play, corruption in Gov’t & big business, dirt cheap cash, a clueless populous and people from around the world with very deep pockets that want to keep this going.

Until many of the topics discussed in the article below are researched, investigated and then fixed, I’m afraid it will sadly be more of the same…

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/foreign-ownership-data-released-so-far-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-statscan-director

#23 Steuy on 12.28.17 at 6:42 pm

I didn’t even mention that most of the country is minus 30 this week. We might not be alive by April, anyway.

One good thing the cold temperatures keep the crime rate down! Snuggle-up and Stay Warm. Happy New Year Blog Dogs!

#24 pathcontrolmonk on 12.28.17 at 6:42 pm

I just bought a 150 yo farmhouse with a 1/4 acre of land 1 hour by bullet train from Tokyo for $20,000 CDN. Even if I commuted from Japan to Vancouver once a month for the next twenty years ($240k), I would still be ahead. Fortunately, we also own a $1 mill house in the center of Tokyo mortgage free. If Canada is too expensive, move somewhere affordable, lots of great places in the world where you don’t need to be a debt slave to own something decent. Canada ain’t worth it.

#25 CL on 12.28.17 at 6:43 pm

I still don’t understand what people, politicians, bankers, and realtors would think would happen with low interest rates, loose monetary policy, and loose lending standards. All I can determine is it was almost a coordinated bear trap. People won’t be able to get out even if they want to. Get enough people to drink the Kool-Aid, get addicted, and then slam the door shut.

The BoC will absolutely have to follow the Fed. I’ve said it all along. Even a dummy like me knows this. Doesn’t matter what the Canadian Feds want. With the US as our biggest creditor, among many other reasons, Canada will do what it is told and that means higher rates. The Canadian 5yr yield is already almost 1.87% 100% higher than the start of 2017. More to come as the market anticipates more rate increases. Sadly, many will be shell shocked.

The arrogance of man never changes. The whole thing is sad. Very, very sad.

#26 akashic record on 12.28.17 at 6:46 pm

Holy crow, dude, that photograph ….

—–

They are more into cryptos, I guess.

#27 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 12.28.17 at 6:47 pm

The BoC follows the Fed with a correlation of 92%. No, it’s not different this time. – Garth

—————————

Then this country is extremely screwed because inflation is really starting to pick up in the US. Some morons thought it was a good idea to give trillions in tax cuts to the rich and corporations when corporate profits are already at all time highs, unemployment at 4%, and the national debt at $21 trillion with annual trillion dollar deficits on the way. I could see the Fed easily raising rates 4x this year, maybe even more. Inflation could easily get out of control. Oil prices are on their way up too and the USD is heading down.

I don’t see how Poloz can possibly match those rate hikes. Haven’t we already fallen behind? US is at 1.5%, Canada at 1%.

Anyways good riddance to this frozen hellhole. It gets everything it deserves. I hope it all comes tumbling down.

Trump tweeted “back to work” then golfed for the next 3 days. What did he mean by this?

#28 Kelsey on 12.28.17 at 6:47 pm

“It’s warmer in Siberia because of changing weather patterns. So, yes.” – Garth

So if Global Warming is a valid scientific theory, then what’s the “null” hypothesis? If the mean global temperature doesn’t rise by at least X degrees by 2030, can we call this off, or at least say it wasn’t as big of a deal as we had originally thought? If any deviation from the mean weather pattern can be trotted out as evidence for Climate Change, it’s not a falsifiable theory that conforms to the Scientific Method, despite what the high priests of science might tell us.

In the 70s we were afraid of an Ice Age, in the 2000s Gore said we all would have burned to death by now and now our theory is that the climate changes. I used to think this was the most serious issue facing humanity when I was younger, but I’m old enough now to remember all of the predictions that have gone down the memory hole.

For context, the earth at one time had ~8,000 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere and now that’s more like 400 ppm, so we may be causing some small climate change but I suspect this is being greatly exaggerated for political reasons.

And if people actually cared about the environment and the children, they would be out protesting the government debt.

#29 Victor V on 12.28.17 at 6:52 pm

#2 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 12.28.17 at 5:43 pm
Fugly and pooched……Precisely why interest rate hikes will be delayed as long as possible and will be as minuscule as possible.

The BoC follows the Fed with a correlation of 92%. No, it’s not different this time. – Garth

===================

https://www.bnn.ca/canadian-dollar-hits-2-month-high-as-greenback-slips-oil-climbs-1.953981

The Bank of Canada raised interest rates in July, and then again in September, for the first time in seven years. Money markets expect three further hikes in 2018, which is more than is expected from the Fed.

#30 isuckless on 12.28.17 at 6:53 pm

Climate change – absolute truth
Climate change caused by humans – absolute lie, used by politicians to raise taxes, their friends to get rich, “scientists” to keep getting grants, and soon by insurance agencies to deny claims. If something is backed by Al Gore and Putin you should better know to run as far as you can from that.

#31 Spectacle on 12.28.17 at 6:53 pm

Re::
#19 Haha on 12.28.17 at 6:26 pm
Global cooling they meant, right?
————–
Or Global Lies. Worth the research. Attempts go on and on, to Lie to the masses and take advantage of the citizens of modern culture. Hmm.

A Review of:“Global Lies? Propaganda, the UN and World Order, by …
http://www.tandfonline.com › doi › fullI

#32 Willy H on 12.28.17 at 6:54 pm

“The industry blames excessive government regs, restrictive land use and zoning policies, insane building codes and anti-sprawl measures which have inflated land prices. True enough.”
__ __ __ __
Total horse manure – lot’s of land zoned for development in the GTA. The problem – land speculation resulting in developers overpaying and unable to recover their investment. Simply put – unregulated greed, the other side of the Greater Fool coin.

Most regs, zoning, building codes and anti-sprawl measures are in place to protect us from ourselves. Just ask the folks in Houston who spent weeks navigating flooded streets because development trumped basic engineering requirements for water run-off.

#33 Dolce Vita on 12.28.17 at 6:54 pm

#7 Lost in Space

Tell the Germans to move to Italia where RE is flat or losing value.

Besides, the food, wine, culture and lifestyle are a lot better.

Tell the Germans to bring their GDP along with them, we could use the bump.

Also, it would be nice if the Germans would stop nude sun bathing where ever they want on our beaches this summer…just saying.

Also Deutschland, lose the socks with the sandals fashion statement, please, it’s hideous to look at for we fashion conscious Italians.

And as for you Canada this summer, stop plying our neighborhoods half naked, in flip flops, making a ton of racket with your wheely luggage AND stop apologizing for everything, we love you the way your are…just don’t wear stuff from The GAP and Marks Work Warehouse when you come to Italia.

And NEVER ASK FOR Spaghetti Bolognese in Italia, it does not exist and a travesty to Italians.

Ciao d’Italia (a chilly +8 deg C tomorrow)…brrr…no rain or snow either.

#34 Eyestrain on 12.28.17 at 6:59 pm

So much for the Christmas spirit……

#179 IHCTD9 on 12.28.17 at 5:01 pm
#111 Eyestrain on 12.28.17 at 7:13 am
Heroes of the Resistance (distribute freely)
Brigette DePape

Thanks, I had a good laugh reading that one… Harper is long gone, and she’s probably flipping burgers now.

She was all worried about Harper spending money on jet fighters …… what Trudeau has blown … we could have TWO HUNDRED AND EIGHTY SIX F-35’s lol!
Haha………………………………….ha

********
By sheer coincidence, Brigette DePape spent 2015 organizing Canadian youth to vote in the Federal election. I guess it worked out for her. I didn’t know that she was anti-defense spending (<– there's a bit of wordplay there), I only read she thought Harper was a tyrant. The USA has warplanes to spare, how is that helping? When the age of true enlightenment arrives, Brigette's face will be on the 5 quintillion bill. And you'll be dead. Polite snicker.

#35 Dan on 12.28.17 at 7:00 pm

40 years ago it was global cooling. 20 Years ago, global warming. Now, climate change.

Scientists aren’t sure what’s going on, but they all agree. Things change.

Looks like we’re back to global cooling.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/897472/ice-age-global-warming-climate-change-solar-minimum

#36 Smoking Man on 12.28.17 at 7:02 pm

Don’t mean to rub it in.

26 C right now in SO Cal.

#37 Joe2.0 on 12.28.17 at 7:04 pm

I just got back to town from a no internet vacation (Cuba)
Some Chinese dude just bought the old White Spot property on Georgia St for 200+ million???
Messed up.

#38 Deporable weather on 12.28.17 at 7:08 pm

It ain’t -30 in lotus land….

#39 tccontrarian on 12.28.17 at 7:09 pm

So, figure it out. Houses people already can’t afford, even at cheap rates. Central bank increases all but certain. Household finances squished. Seriously higher qualifications for borrowers. And higher taxes coming in the T2 budget.-GT
***********************************************

Looks like the ‘slow melt’ thesis is solidly out the window – officially by the man himself! I knew it was just a matter of time GT agreed with me.
Now if I could get him to like bullion…

Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

TCC

#40 Cloudy on 12.28.17 at 7:15 pm

Stats Can director basically says the first release of data tells very little of the whole story and would count Canadian corporations with foreign owners and homes bought in the name of students or spouses as local owners. They hope in the future to be able to paint a better picture of people that are foreign owners in substance and not just on paper. People that live in university towns know how much is owned by wealthy students.

#41 will on 12.28.17 at 7:15 pm

I can’t care. I’ve got a ton of preferred dividends paying January 1st. Yeah!

#42 Interest rate spike on 12.28.17 at 7:16 pm

I think you are going to see some shock and awe on the interest rate front. People are too complacent, thinking interest rates aren’t going to rise and that there is no inflation. You can see it on the flat yield curve that is present now. I think inflation is going to appear and burn everyone that is long on bonds in 2018. Look at global economic growth, earnings, employment and underlying inflation.

To make matters worse, the fed may have to be aggressive on further rate hikes. With economic growth steadily increasing, higher inflation in the pipeline, combined with more on the way from the trump cuts, the fed may have to move quick to keep from falling further behind on the curve..

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/17/interest-rates-fed-faces-tough-road-on-federal-funds-rate-inflation.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/dec/12/oil-brent-crude-forties-oil-pipeline-uk-inflation-business?page=with:block-5a2f83b924e47405c4d73381

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/19/rising-inflation-could-trigger-a-mini-panic-warns-bull-jim-paulsen.html

#43 ANON on 12.28.17 at 7:26 pm

I’d pay C$1,200,000 to stand on top of a pole with a hawt Sao Paulo Brazilian chick on my shoulders.

Here’s where you can submit your proposal. Good luck! :)

#44 akashic record on 12.28.17 at 7:26 pm

It’s warmer in Siberia because of changing weather patterns. So, yes. – Garth

—-

Interplanetary cycle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJCQANGJSCM

#45 Dolce Vita on 12.28.17 at 7:27 pm

#22 VanMan

Sadly (fact, per Zolo.ca):

YVR Detached Avg. Price, year over year =

-15%.

It’s over, the foreigners will not save you and are having to be enticed in China to buy in YVR (developer adverts there offering to pay the Foreign Buyer Tax…start reading from YVR Realtors on Twitter that follow this).

People are tapped out financially. Rates going up. B20 dropping many buyers out of the market (fact).

Put 2 and 2 together with Flop’s posts from YVR, the amateur RE investors are dropping their drawers in price to get out of the market and it will only get worse…fact.

And for many months now, per My Realty Check, price drops outweigh price increases by 3:1 as of today, fact.

See turnstile stampede in 2018…conjecture?

#46 AK on 12.28.17 at 7:27 pm

FULL CIRCLE: Crusade hits dead end for ‘burned’ Keswick home buyers

#47 Nick on 12.28.17 at 7:28 pm

Also worth pointing out that the rise in commodity prices as well as that shiny new minimum wage increase in Ontario is going to push inflation higher in 2018 putting additional pressure on interest rates !

#48 Deplorable trolls on 12.28.17 at 7:31 pm

#27 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 12.28.17 at 6:47 pm
The BoC follows the Fed with a correlation of 92%. No, it’s not different this time. – Garth

—————————

Then this country is extremely screwed because inflation is really starting to pick up in the US. Some morons thought it was a good idea to give trillions in tax cuts to the rich and corporations when corporate profits are already at all time highs, unemployment at 4%, and the national debt at $21 trillion with annual trillion dollar deficits on the way. I could see the Fed easily raising rates 4x this year, maybe even more. Inflation could easily get out of control. Oil prices are on their way up too and the USD is heading down.

I don’t see how Poloz can possibly match those rate hikes. Haven’t we already fallen behind? US is at 1.5%, Canada at 1%.

Anyways good riddance to this frozen hellhole. It gets everything it deserves. I hope it all comes tumbling down.

Trump tweeted “back to work” then golfed for the next 3 days. What did he mean by this?

You’re a rather lousy and obvious troll…..

#49 Dolce Vita on 12.28.17 at 7:31 pm

#38 Deporable weather

You must live on the beach or in the West End.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/freezing-rain-heavy-snow-make-for-dangerous-road-conditions-in-b-c-1.4466938

#50 Purdy on 12.28.17 at 7:39 pm

Hey Garth, any comment on the TREB and supreme court thing? I was loving the housing app Housesigma which seemed to mimic Zillow.com. List price vs sale price, previous listings etc etc. Amazing to have that information.

However the site mentions something about the supreme court from Dec 20th. I thought we had real estate information freedom! Will we get back canadian zillow sites?

#51 LivinLarge on 12.28.17 at 7:41 pm

“For context, the earth at one time had ~8,000 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere and now that’s more like 400 ppm, so we may be causing some small climate change but I suspect this is being greatly exaggerated for political reasons.”…so much stupidity and sooooo little time. That’s not “context” that’s bafflegab.

And at that “one time” there were only single cell organisms living in the sea. Yea, let’s use that logic.

Do the attendants at the home only let you use the communal computer for an hour a day? This isn’t a climate change denier blog you do realize don’t you?

#52 Oakville Sucks on 12.28.17 at 7:43 pm

It must be stated the radiation emitted by that antenna is so high the guy fried his balls in about 5 minutes. He may never be able to procreate. SO STUPID!!!!

#53 Rooster on 12.28.17 at 7:46 pm

#178 Kelsey on 12.28.17 at 4:39 pm

Government spending is like a dog eating its own poop …..???………
Just think about how much NASA got done in the 60s when it hired Engineers from the free market, and now how much it can accomplish with its lifers and inevitable politicization.
————-
Preaching to the choir, son. Sure, NASA led the development of all the polymers, alloys, integrated circuits, LEDs, robotics, food preservation (Tang!), battery technologies, telecommunications, etc., that we couldn’t do without today. But what have they done for us lately? And sure, those politico lifers punted some good engineers from DARPA who started the internet, but that was a lucky fluke. If we could only fund the good ideas.

PS
Garth (may I call you Garth?) did someone prorogue the History of Civilization? I may have to humbly request a per diem for the correspondence course I am running here.

#54 DON on 12.28.17 at 8:05 pm

The Perfect Storm for the over indebted and low cash flow.

Lets see the Christmas retail numbers: The big debt binged before the belt tightening or did people spend less in preparation of what’s coming?

My Pick: the big bucket of debt binging.

#55 Proud Claustrophobe on 12.28.17 at 8:05 pm

I love Rex Murphy’s wit. This on Global warming…

“Global Warming was the original denomination, favoured by Mr. Gore and the legions of NGOs, Greenpeacers and their ilk. But it proved too sturdy a framing. It lacked the elasticity so useful when it becomes needful to slide an argument around or twist it to meet contradicting realities. The term was never precise, but neither was it fully malleable. That is why – when the winter snows continued to show up after infallible predications by some we’d never see them again, when glaciers didn’t melt on cue, when polar bears fattened and multiplied – the always agile camp of climate diviners switched to the infinitely accommodating “Climate Change.” Climate Change is a binder you can stuff everything in. Warm, Cold, Hot, Dry, Wind, Drought, Frost and Fry. It says everything and nothing. In fact, it is the perfect synonym that less enlightened generations called Weather. And Weather always happens. It is change itself. Ask any Newfoundlander.

#56 Avon or Amway ? on 12.28.17 at 8:06 pm

Well there is always Plan “B”…

#57 the ryguy on 12.28.17 at 8:07 pm

Its 25 down in here Cabo, rent is the same as my place in Edmonton, and Im down 10 lbs from walking, even the pooch is svelt again!

The thought of coming back to Canada, and trying to build up more cash flow only to have half of it taken away..yeah no thanks.

Oh and you forgot another factor Garth, one of my employees asked me about it this morning… minimum wage increases..atleast in AB anyway. My employees are all a couple bucks above minimum already, much to their dismay as they were all penciling in raises. Will be funny for some of these full time employees that “get raises” only to knock on the first tax tier.. uh oh.. boy are they in for a shock!

#58 Adrian on 12.28.17 at 8:09 pm

Great post today, Garth! If construction & other FIRE-related economic activity is already dropping off this rapidly, then we have our warning and the recession won’t be too far ahead… probably by the end of 2018, or early into 2019, would be my ‘wag’ (‘wild @$$ guess’). I think this part is about where I $#!+ my pants:

“almost half of all the existing mortgages in Canada will come up for renewal during 2018”

Higher interest rates & the stress test are going to hurt a lot of borrowers next year. We need exports to pick up or we are in trouble, and Poloz may resist raising rates too much in the hope that it will help with that. Anyway, thank you for the excellent information I may not otherwise see.

(As for people not worried about a loss of polar ice or the rising sea levels that will result, I guess you also aren’t concerned about the satellite scans since 2002 showing a steady loss of Greenland ice that is simply staggering:)

[2m:15s]
What’s hidden under the Greenland ice sheet?
TED | Kristin Poinar
https://youtu.be/8nbeD1mwCdo

“If the water were piled up on our smallest continent, it would drown Australia knee-deep.”

#59 Long-Time Lurker on 12.28.17 at 8:10 pm

#106 down_boy on 12.28.17 at 3:44 am

(That owl/dog combo looks like a made-in-Canada detective series.)

>Hootie and the Hobo.

#42 Interest rate spike on 12.28.17 at 7:16 pm
I think you are going to see some shock and awe on the interest rate front.

>Good hypothesis.

#60 DON on 12.28.17 at 8:10 pm

I know something about Mary.

But whadda about NAFTA – even the PM doesn’t is guessing about it or trying to release the bad news slowly so it isn’t shocking.

Not getting a good vibe on this and Trump signed his Tax cuts – Head office and brain drain return to the Canadian theatre (just like the late 80s early 90s).

Yikes! This country is in need of strong moral leadership. You have a platform Garth…

#61 Asterix1 on 12.28.17 at 8:13 pm

These builders are playing dumb! It’s their fault that nothing is selling. Adjust your prices, they kept them at April 2017 levels and higher.

What they are trying to sell for 1.2M$ needs to be repriced between 900,000 to 1M$ depending where the house stands.

At the start of 2019, they will need to reprice between 700,000 to 875,000.

GTA RE is a dead man walking in 2018.

#62 Mike in Toronto on 12.28.17 at 8:16 pm

#21 Dolce Vita

People will certainly lend you money on the losing asset. The CMHC insurance guarantees that your mortgage can be renewed even if you’re underwater. Maybe not very favourably, but it will renew.

#63 Ray on 12.28.17 at 8:19 pm

#28 Kelsey on 12.28.17 at 6:47 pm
You are right, the planet will be fine. It has been for about 4.5 bln years and has been through a lot worse than what we have thrown at it. So relax, there is no need be concerned to try to save the planet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BB0aFPXr4n4

#64 DON on 12.28.17 at 8:21 pm

#2 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 12.28.17 at 5:43 pm
Fugly and pooched……Precisely why interest rate hikes will be delayed as long as possible and will be as minuscule as possible.

The BoC follows the Fed with a correlation of 92%. No, it’s not different this time. – Garth
****************
What Nancy state do you live in Mr. Watson

The Government doesn’t have to care about what big boys and girls do when it comes to financially overleveraging themselves. The government didn’t tell you to do it.

#65 Vertigo on 12.28.17 at 8:33 pm

It seems as though bitcoin is starting to become yesterday’s golden child, and much of the speculative $ is flooding into the two marijuana ETFS – HMMJ and MJX. A possible topic for a blog entry, Garth?

#66 IHCTD9 on 12.28.17 at 8:34 pm

#111 Eyestrain on 12.28.17 at 7:13 am

By sheer coincidence, Brigette DePape spent 2015 organizing Canadian youth to vote in the Federal election. I guess it worked out for her. I didn’t know that she was anti-defense spending (<– there's a bit of wordplay there), I only read she thought Harper was a tyrant. The USA has warplanes to spare, how is that helping? When the age of true enlightenment arrives, Brigette's face will be on the 5 quintillion bill. And you'll be dead. Polite snicker

————-

She was hauled off the floor by security, then Layton (her hero) ripped her a new one for acting like a douche, then in 2014 she was arrested for being an asshat once again.

I doubt Ms. DePape converted any Harpercons to vote Liberal. She's a volunteer activist, and thoroughly wasting her precious time.

Anyway, it does sound like things are working out for her, as she hasn't been tossed in jail yet.

Indeed, someday I'll be dead having left my wife and offspring to carry on, and also leaving them sizeable means to do so, primarily due to not having wasted my life acting like a moron.

I'm sure DePape's face will more likely be on her mug shot in time. She will die someday too, probably broke. Prorobably taking her genes with her.

#67 confused on 12.28.17 at 8:35 pm

Looks like the banks are going to have billions and billions of dollars sitting around that won’t be lent out on mortgages now. Banks don’t like this, they want ‘their’ money to earn its keep.

So Garth, what happens?

Do we all receive 0% balance/fund transfers, for life, with a 1% fee?

#68 Kaganovich on 12.28.17 at 8:35 pm

Kelsey and the dwindling number of deniers,

Here, check this out. Even the geologists gave up on your tired ideas. And tgey held on to the ‘natural’ explanations behind warming until the cognitive dissonance was likely unbearable:
https://www.geolsoc.org.uk/climaterecord

#69 Kelsey on 12.28.17 at 8:38 pm

#51 LivingLarge

You managed to insult me multiple times without making a single argument addressing any of my points.

The 8,000 ppm vs. 400 ppm argument is not definitive, but the only empirical data points we have in more extreme scenarios are from the Earth’s past, and this data is evidence that we would not have a runaway greenhouse effect. In other words, the Earth has a negative, rather than positive, feedback loop, which makes sense for a system that has managed to stay within a range that sustained life for 100s of millions of years.

I recognize there are some counterpoints as to why the atmospheric physics may have been a bit different back then and reasoned debate rather than name calling is fair play.

Labeling someone a “denier” because they are skeptical of a scientific theory is antithetical to science and more akin to the Medieval church. I am open to Climate Change being a valid theory and was in fact once very concerned, but have grown skeptical as the evidence we were once promised failed to materialize and the theory changed and data was doctored. The Rex Murphy quote above puts it more eloquently than I can.

#70 Proud Claustrophobe on 12.28.17 at 8:49 pm

More fun. Australia, another place where foreign money has been a major issue 80% of the folks have variable mortgages, and debt is 122% of GDP. Looks like Canada has some catching up to do.

Rising interest rates is another area where Canada may have an advantage over Australia.

Property bust triggers

We’re at record levels of household debt, but it’s not just debt that’s threatening the housing market, writes Ian Verrender.

Not only are Canadian households less indebted, but they also tend to have fixed-rate mortgages.

“Seventy-five per cent of our mortgages are five years or longer and so, even in the event of a rate shock, we only have about 25 or 30 per cent of mortgages that come due every year and are required to be refinanced and therefore exposed to that interest rate risk,” Mr Siddall explained.

When told that somewhere around 80 per cent of Australian mortgages were on variable interest rates, Mr Siddall was taken aback.

“That is a vulnerability,” he responded

#71 Proud Claustrophobe on 12.28.17 at 8:54 pm

Siddall who is quoted in this Australian report runs the CMHC.

“Canada has a national housing agency, Australia doesn’t

Another potential advantage Canada has over Australia is the CMHC itself.

Not only does it do mortgage insurance, but also runs Canada’s national housing affordability programs and provides policy advice.

“Being able to look at the whole spectrum, from homelessness to home ownership, means that we can have a comprehensive, integrated strategy,” Mr Siddall ventured.”

#72 Chaddywack on 12.28.17 at 8:54 pm

But Vancouver still has the mountains, ocean, the legacy of the Olympics, and tons of rich Chinese!

You can ski in the morning, play golf in the afternoon, go to the beach in the evening, and go clubbing all night.

AND it never snows :)

Sincerely,

Your local real estate agent/credit union

#73 Fiendish Thingy on 12.28.17 at 9:01 pm

Just a reminder for those who are mathematically challenged:

A 33% price reduction erases a 50% price appreciation…

#74 LivinLarge on 12.28.17 at 9:12 pm

Oh Kelsey, I’ll just have to live with your feeling of being insulted. 98.9% of qualified climate authorities agree that: A. Based upon the precise and fully understood position of the earth within its orbit around the sun, we should be experiencing a gradual cooling on earth and B. We are not experiencing such cooling and instead are experiencing a measured increase in average global temperatures.

So, if you choose to ignore that empirical reality and promote another extreme minority explanation that is your absolute right. IMO you should do that somewhere else but that isn’t my right to enforce.

Even the History Channel doesn’t broadcast programs that promote views like yours and yet they have no problem broacasting “Ancient Alien Theorists” and Bigfoot documentaries.

My grandmother wouldn’t accept that men landed on the moon in 1969 because she had no frame of reference to understand the science or technology underlying the moon landings. She was incorrect and you are incorrect as well.

The science isn’t as simple as “see the CO2 ppm was much greater at X point in time and it was cool so CO2 can’t be cause”

There are a suprising number of people here and in the outside world who don’t actually understand how RSPs or even TFSAs work even though both are extraordinarilly straight forward concepts so excuse me if I am compelled to accept the opinions of the real and qualified authorities.

#75 isuckless on 12.28.17 at 9:14 pm

#58 Adrian:
Maybe you should take a look at the real data re. Greenland before stating “satellite scans since 2002 showing a steady loss of Greenland ice that is simply staggering”:
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

And, TED talks are not what they used to be, unfortunately.

#76 dr. talc on 12.28.17 at 9:16 pm

#52 Oakville Sucks on 12.28.17 at 7:43 pm
It must be stated the radiation emitted by that antenna is so high the guy fried his balls in about 5 minutes. He may never be able to procreate. SO STUPID!!!!

—-
i thought it was photo shop,
but you’re right about the radiation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=xRhISwY42nQ

Forcing a Total, Saturated 5G Future… Without Safety Checks

#77 bubu on 12.28.17 at 9:16 pm

As I said, the prices will be flat and the sales lower but nothing else to cheer…. look at Edmonton… houses on the market for 3-4 years at the high end (over 1M) and nobody is reducing the prices… only a big spike in interest rate (> 2%) can change this and I don’t see that in the next 3 years…

#78 SWL1976 on 12.28.17 at 9:20 pm

Just like our GMO veggies, our weather is no longer natural like it once was. Check out Solar Radiation Management, Global Dimming and Geoengineering if you want to see what is happening and what is coming.

Could 2018 be the year we start to see realistic valuations in housing and pot stocks? There has been lots of money made with both, but I think the easy money has been made in both cases.

People must be smoking pot if they think interest rates can never rise and weed can support our economy. Just like with housing some people need to ask – who are we really selling all this pot to?

2018 is going to be very interesting I think I have positioned myself well, but I have been wrong before.

Sure glad I don’t require any of the ‘safe space’ that some suckers out there seem to crave

#79 Walter Safety on 12.28.17 at 9:23 pm

Last night #99 Smoking Man
I thought you would know.
Wildfires are always blamed on the homeless in Cali even though they are outnumbered by lightning strikes.
I’m sure there’s a good reason.

#80 OttawaMike on 12.28.17 at 9:31 pm

Why is that link being spiked?
It’s an article on how the Cnd govt can learn how to curb speckers..

My blog. My choice of allowed links. – Garth

#81 isuckless on 12.28.17 at 9:31 pm

To all global warmists out there:
I tip a hat to the genius who came with the idea that the harmless and necessary gas (CO2) is selected as a main culprit for all our problems and to be used to fill the pockets of the elite (and their sycophants whose livelihood depends on this ruse). They did this to divert our attention and hide real pollution that is happening around us. Pure genius (and then Al Gore came).
Did you hear about CO2 recycling in EU? Another great idea (not).

#82 Koch Bro Airlines on 12.28.17 at 9:36 pm

#78 SWL1976 on 12.28.17 at 9:20 pm

Just like our GMO veggies, our weather is no longer natural like it once was. Check out Solar Radiation Management, Global Dimming and Geoengineering if you want to see what is happening and what is coming.

Could 2018 be the year we start to see realistic valuations in housing and pot stocks? There has been lots of money made with both, but I think the easy money has been made in both cases.

People must be smoking pot if they think interest rates can never rise and weed can support our economy. Just like with housing some people need to ask – who are we really selling all this pot to?

2018 is going to be very interesting I think I have positioned myself well, but I have been wrong before.

Sure glad I don’t require any of the ‘safe space’ that some suckers out there seem to crave

CHEMTRAILS!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrUm0KY8dJA

#83 Fuzzy Camel on 12.28.17 at 9:38 pm

I see inflation coming. In the words of Trump, yuuuge inflation thanks to his tax bill.

Starting in 2018 $2.4 Trillion USD is coming back home to the US. That money will flow into stock buybacks and investment in automation.

Oil prices are up to $60/barrel, that’s a big hint inflation is happening. Rates will rise to combat the inflation, real estate will do well in the US their economy overheats. Elsewhere, in Canada, we’re probably going into a recession in late 2018 as our housing market chokes.

Go long capitalism (USA), short socialism(Canada/EU).

#84 NoName on 12.28.17 at 9:42 pm

to those two that that is an body parts frying antena, its not, its lightning arrestor.

http://www.electrical-knowhow.com/2014/01/introduction-to-lightning-system-design.html

#85 Niels Boor on 12.28.17 at 9:44 pm

#24 pathcontrolmonk on 12.28.17 at 6:42 pm
I just bought a 150 yo farmhouse with a 1/4 acre of land 1 hour by bullet train from Tokyo for $20,000 CDN.

*********
Is that in the Fukushima Boca Vista re-development? I heard the lots were only available to foreigners, is that right? What’s the true cost of living there? Are the iodine pills free or should I bring my own? Who was your realtor?
I know, way too many questions,

perplexed in Pickering

#86 El Presidente Trump on 12.28.17 at 9:51 pm

Jeez, do I have to correct every fake news site in world… sad.

Donald J. Trump
‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump
3h3 hours ago

In the East, it could be the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record. Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming that our Country, but not other countries, was going to pay TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to protect against. Bundle up!

#87 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 12.28.17 at 10:00 pm

Higher carbon-dioxide levels will be beneficial. CO2 is an essential nutrient for land-based plants. The Earth’s biosphere has also experienced a relative CO2 famine for many millennia—the recent increase in CO2 levels has thus had a measurable, positive effect on plant life. Future CO2 increases will boost agricultural productivity and improve drought resistance, thereby bolstering food security and contributing to a greener, lusher planet.

#88 Sam the Sham on 12.28.17 at 10:02 pm

It looks like it’s not only Canada where people made huge gain on their homes (Trigger Warning for some): “Housing Bubble 2.0: U.S. Homeowners Made $2 Trillion On Their Houses In 2017” -Zero Hedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-28/housing-bubble-20-us-homeowners-made-2-trillion-their-houses-2017

#89 Moeny still pouring in on 12.28.17 at 10:02 pm

GVA: Many people I know from firefighters to previous restaurant owners are pouring money into real estate. They are either heavily invested in multiple properties or getting investors to build, and sell. A guy has spent the last two+1/2 years building a 10,000 sq ft mansion. I hope he makes before it crashes. When is the bubble going to burst? Too many locals involved and will get hurt after.

#90 LivinLarge on 12.28.17 at 10:04 pm

“harmless and necessary gas (CO2)”????? Seriously? I had to read your post 3 times to decide if it is hyperbolic sarcasm or not. Sadly not because it is truly hilarious.

Oh, and for the folks invoking Rex Murphy…you do realize he is a satirist don’t you?

#91 Midnights on 12.28.17 at 10:08 pm

Mohamed El-Erian…

http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/12/el-erian-world-nearing-tipping-point/

#92 tbone on 12.28.17 at 10:10 pm

# 65 Vertigo

I just sold two weed stocks and bought HMMJ today .
May as well go the easy route and just buy the etf .
Needed some speculative stocks , but not a lot .

#93 Dan on 12.28.17 at 10:12 pm

#74

Actually, that’s exactly what’s happening.

http://www.outerplaces.com/science/item/17410-mini-ice-age-will-hit-the-earth-in-five-years

#94 Bit Trader on 12.28.17 at 10:13 pm

Weather forecasting is a lot like predicting the bond market, a few days out is pretty reliable but then it becomes a wild guess. Keep in mind, when bond prices rise, yields fall and you earn less. When temperatures rise, sea levels rise and you drown.

Do you think it is a coincidence all the Bitcoin vaults are located in Switzerland? A rising tide lifts all boats, but the sheeple on them won’t be docking anymore.

Call me crazy, but never before in the history of humanity has this much methane been sequestered in the bowels of mankind. Act accordingly.

#95 Nonplused on 12.28.17 at 10:16 pm

“I didn’t even mention that most of the country is minus 30 this week. We might not be alive by April, anyway.”

It’s that global warming thing.

Can we at least get rid of carbon taxes when it’s freaking cold? Does Nutley and Turdeau think I’m going to heat my house with solar panels during the solstice when it’s -20 for the high? What morons. I’m either burning natural gas, wood, or electricity (from coal), or my pipes are freezing. What a bunch of morons.

#96 Fake News Again on 12.28.17 at 10:16 pm

#13 Kelsey on 12.28.17 at 6:16 pm
Must be all that Global Warming…err “Climate Change” making it so cold.

It’s warmer in Siberia because of changing weather patterns. So, yes. – Garth

________

more than 60% of the worlds land mass is below ZERO Celsius. Just like when that blowhard Al Gore spewed his Global Warming BS 12 years ago and promised Canadians we could row our canoes through the arctic in the summer by now.

Global Climate Change Warming is a tax grab. Thats it and thats all…..

http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Satellite/Current.aspx

#97 IHCTD9 on 12.28.17 at 10:18 pm

Kelsey on 12.28.17 at 8:38 pm
#51 LivingLarge

You managed to insult me multiple times without making a single argument addressing any of my points.

The 8,000 ppm vs. 400 ppm argument is not definitive, but the only empirical data points we have in more extreme scenarios are from the Earth’s past, and this data is evidence that we would not have a runaway greenhouse effect. In other words, the Earth has a negative, rather than positive, feedback loop, which makes sense for a system that has managed to stay within a range that sustained life for 100s of millions of years.

I recognize there are some counterpoints as to why the atmospheric physics may have been a bit different back then and reasoned debate rather than name calling is fair play.

Labeling someone a “denier” because they are skeptical of a scientific theory is antithetical to science and more akin to the Medieval church. I am open to Climate Change being a valid theory and was in fact once very concerned, but have grown skeptical as the evidence we were once promised failed to materialize and the theory changed and data was doctored. The Rex Murphy quote above puts it more eloquently than I can.

———————

When weighing the CC hoopla, I like to look for logical reinforcement from the activist side of the argument. Just question them based on the assumption that global warming is happening, and that it is man made.

Like asking what difference in global terms would be effected if Canadian emissions dropped to zero.

Ask the Canadian activists what efforts they have been making in the third world, China, and the USA to convince them to lower their massive GHG’s?

Their responses to just those two questions will reveal if they are truly concerned with making a positive change, or if they are ideological zealots who want the feels of doing something without the hassle of producing actual results. Or maybe they just want to get paid.

For me, any CC actions undertaken by Canada will produce an unmeasurable global reduction, no one in their right minds would say otherwise. Therefore, anyone (including our government) wasting time and resources trying to lower Canadian GHG’s when they could be in China actually making a real difference globally is a fake; and has a highly questionable M.O.

#98 OttawaMike on 12.28.17 at 10:18 pm

My blog. My choice of allowed links. – Garth

Yeah. I poked around a bit more on there. Pretty inflammatory. I geddit.

#99 45north on 12.28.17 at 10:25 pm

But the collapse of the construction business is just another indicator that residential real estate is going over a cliff, in the GTA

and it’s going to take the middle class with it – at least some of it

it may not be the kind of change they voted for, but it’s the kind of change they’re going to get:

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-truth-about-justin-trudeaus-tax-cuts/

#100 Kelsey on 12.28.17 at 10:26 pm

#74 Living Large

Ancient Alien Theorists is a great program that informs many of my best investment decisions ;)

You’re right, I did go way off topic and Garth did have a good point about Siberia and temperatures in the rest of the world. That’s what I love about this blog’s comment section – it’s a bastion for free speech and debate.

I may very well be wrong and don’t actually doubt some man made effect. The point of my last post is that we shouldn’t just appeal to authority, or eventually the authorities will take advantage of this. I don’t care if you call me names, just pointing out that you are using name calling and appeals to authority in place of an actual argument and as a tool to shut down debate. That’s how the elites control us.

#101 SWL1976 on 12.28.17 at 10:26 pm

@82 – Your safe space is calling

Come back with some actual facts and perhaps we can discuss many topics in further detail.

Until then don’t bother with childish comments while hiding in your safe space

#102 For those about to flop... on 12.28.17 at 10:27 pm

Recent Sale Report/ Realtor Assistance Needed.

This house in my neighborhood is another just like the house on Windsor st. that was asking less than purchased for sold just before the holidays.

Paid 1.67

Asking 1.64

Solid on December 13th for ???

Phil Collins once wrote a song about speculators in Vancouver…

I can feel it coming in the air tonight, oh Lord
And I’ve been waiting for this moment for all my life, oh Lord
Can you feel it coming in the air tonight, oh Lord, oh Lord
Well if you told me you were drowning, I would not lend a hand…

M43BC

6626 Inverness Street, Vancouver paid 1.67 asking 1.64

May 30:$1,849,800
Jul 27: $1,748,000
Change: – 101800.00 -6%

6626 Inverness Street, Vancouver

May 30:$1,849,800
Oct 24: $1,649,000
Change: – 200800.00 -11%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/6626-inverness-street

#103 Carmen Sativa on 12.28.17 at 10:38 pm

#92 tbone on 12.28.17 at 10:10 pm
# 65 Vertigo
I just sold two weed stocks and bought HMMJ today

————-
IMHO you were too early. Steady hands win the biggest pot. The Financial Post reported today that Canada is destined become a major export player in the marijuana space. I do wonder though, how much they could charge per gram in places like Mexico where it grows wild or Lebanon where it is a house plant. Rex Murphy is good for a couple of keys a month, but who else in NFLD has the cash?

#104 IHCTD9 on 12.28.17 at 10:41 pm

LivinLarge on 12.28.17 at 10:04 pm
“harmless and necessary gas (CO2)”????? Seriously? I had to read your post 3 times to decide if it is hyperbolic sarcasm or not. Sadly not because it is truly hilarious.

————

He/she’s right. We breathe in o2 and exhale co2. Trees and plants breathe in c02 and exhale 02. All the carbon that makes up our bodies comes directly or indirectly from plants. All of said carbon was once in the air.

If you died and they let your carcass decompose out in the street instead of burying you, all that same carbon in your body that was taken from the air by the plants you ate, and the animals you ate; would return once again to the air. This Co2 would then once again feed more plants that would feed more animals and humans etc.

You can read up on the “carbon cycle”, interesting reading.

#105 Hugh Janus on 12.28.17 at 10:45 pm

Global warming my ass, give your head a shake. You cant predict anything until you average out 500 years of weather records, which like doesnt actually exist, hello.

Global warming was obviously thrown at you to fool you into accepting another tax. Funny part is, it worked.

Sad part is now they know how compliant sheeple are, there will be no end to new taxes coming at you.

#106 Bhad Bhabie on 12.28.17 at 10:46 pm

its cold ousside

#107 LivinLarge on 12.28.17 at 10:48 pm

“Future CO2 increases will boost agricultural productivity and improve drought resistance, thereby bolstering food security and contributing to a greener, lusher planet.”…is there a full moon tonight???? Well, maybe in 40,000 years after humans are extinct and the earth is in opposite point in its trajectory. Personally I’d rather not wait up and see. Good night loons.

#108 Oakville Sucks on 12.28.17 at 10:49 pm

#76 dr. talc on 12.28.17 at 9:16 pm

..but you’re right about the radiation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=xRhISwY42nQ

******************
Dr. Talc, working in the industry(electrical engineer) I should add that cell towers saturating everyone’s home 24/7 with microwave radiation should be something everyone is greatly concerned with.

There is so much data that if widely written about would scare the #&&# out of you. There would be riots on the streets to remove these towers from their neighborhood and people would be smashing their wireless routers and going hard wired throughout their house.

What is baffling is those who buy homes next to these towers.

#109 AB Boxster on 12.28.17 at 11:00 pm

Have been pricing out new home costs for the better part of a year in freezing AB.

A pretty standard new home build, with very nice finishing, will run about $250 per sq foot including attached garage and builder cut. Lot excluded.

So a 1500 sq foot bungalow, parts labour and builder fee, all in will cost about $400K GST included. 2 stories are cheaper.
Certainly a smaller house with less finish and no garage is cheaper, easily around $325k lot excluded.
Some are selling new small 2 storys in Calgary region, for $325k including lot.

This in Alberta with some of the highest labour rates in the country.
The cost to build this house has increased around 6% per year, since 2000, which has still vastly outpaced wage growth.

The house I built in 2000 for 190K would cost me over 450k to build today, land cost excluded. Obscene.

So, in the GTA, how is it that an average new build somehow costs $1.2 million bucks?

Is the price of a crappy 6000 sq foot lot really 800K?
Are they using ‘real special’ OSB or gold laced drywall?
Being so much closer to US retailers I would expect many fixture and cabinet prices to be cheaper than in the north Canada.

Or, is it somehow because the fact that resale homes have been so bid up over the past 15 years, due to insanely low rates, or crazy buyers willing to pay whatever, that somehow miraculously the cost to build a new home has kept pace?

Funny how that works eh?
The averge price of attached homes sales gets bid up 100% (or whatever) in the past 10 years, and miraculously the cost to build new houses goes up the same amount.

Does anyone really believe that the actual costs to construct a new home are anywhere close to the amount that builders are charging for new home builds?

There is massive ripoff happening in the new home building industry.
I suspect builders are making an incredible killing on new home sales.

Interesting to see what happens if the average price of home sales were
to decrease by 30%.
Could new home builders miraculously build a new home for 30% less than today and still survive?

Or could they actually build a new home for 50% less than they charge today, and still be profitable?

I wonder.

#110 Mark on 12.28.17 at 11:07 pm

The Canadian stock market might actually get some love next year. A 16,200 index level, yes, is an all time high, but its a miniscule increase compared to the 15,200 level of 2008. If you adjust for USD$, the TSX still hasn’t even reclaimed its 2008 levels in nominal dollars. Meanwhile balance sheets are healthier than ever in “corporate Canada”, dividend yields on the indices are quite rich even with a 30-40% payout ratio, and operating cashflows across many sectors are some of the strongest ever.

With the speculators realizing that housing is a losing asset, after 5 years of relative pain and no price returns (since the 2013 apex), they might finally turn their efforts elsewhere.

I think I predicted 16,500 for the year, so 16,200 isn’t that far off and tomorrow might still bring a few more points. But next year, wow, could be explosive, especially as the realization sets in that the BoC is probably not going to be raising all that quickly. TSX has a lot of ground to pick up relative to the US indices.

#111 meslippery on 12.28.17 at 11:08 pm

Ladies and Gentleman see Screwed Canadian Millenial.
What is she holding in her right hand?

#112 joblo on 12.28.17 at 11:08 pm

“I didn’t even mention that most of the country is minus 30 this week. We might not be alive by April, anyway.”

Blame it on the cows, tax cows farts next up from the Lieberals.

https://www.ecowatch.com/which-is-worse-for-the-planet-beef-or-cars-1919932136.html

#113 acdel on 12.28.17 at 11:08 pm

Just plain stupidity; how can the same house that was purchased 30 yrs back; with just the basics maintenance being up-kept be worth what young stupid, greedy, flippers or just plain dumb couples due to estrogen (oh we need this or else) or stupid weak testosterone idiots (ok dear whatever keeps our relationship alive for now).I absolutely feel zero and I mean zero pity for these folks; blame the foreigners all you want; it’s some of you that sucked in your parents for that down payment; for those that did, you should be ashamed of yourselves.

Sure I will hear the argument by the 1% that did ok and payed your parents back but for the others who leached of them and those to took advantage of them only to escalate the prices for all others and blame others; give yourselves a great big pat on the back, high fives; sarcasm!

This blog most likely recognizes this and I am most likely wasting my words on this due to the fact that most of us have the same mind set; though at times it is good to vent a little to release all the idiocy that one reads and listens to out there.

#114 T-Rev on 12.28.17 at 11:16 pm

The picture- don’t know where that is in the world, but if it’s real, the couple is clearly Russian. The kids there have nothing to do for excitement except smoke, drink, fornicate, and engage in otherwise risky behavior. Also the primary reason I love travelling in Russia, or at least used to. Middle age is making me more nostalgic than it is turgid these days. Damn father time.

Question for the masses, in the hope there’s a single Retriever amongst the masses of Chihuahuas: What does CMHC’s income statement look like? Those pirates are charging 4% (used to be 3%, I believe) on total mortgage cost for any insured mortgages with 5% down, which I’m going to go on a limb and say is most insured mortgages.

So for every 25 houses, CHMC is collecting the equivalent of an entire house worth of fees. Or put another way, removing overheads, for every 25 houses they insure, one of those loans can go sour and they can afford to compensate the lender enough money to give the house away for free. I don’t know what the default rate is, but I can guarantee it’s not 1 in 25, and even if it was, by the time the bank sells a repo at whatever loss plus fees, there’s no way they are losing 100% equity in the place. Not even close. Throw in the fact that housing has been appreciating at a meteoric pace over the past decade in Canada overall, and I’d bet that the average repo probably sells for above the leveraged amount, easily paying out the bank, the lawyers, the realtor, with enough left to cut a check to the poor bankrupt SOB whose life went to s*#t enough to lose his house, thereby costing CMHC nothing. So where’s the money? Sounds to me like there should be enough there to cover a mother of a housing correction. Anyone know the answer to this?

#115 SWL1976 on 12.28.17 at 11:17 pm

#87 FOUR FINGERS WATSON

Higher carbon-dioxide levels will be beneficial. CO2 is an essential nutrient for land-based plants. The Earth’s biosphere has also experienced a relative CO2 famine for many millennia—the recent increase in CO2 levels has thus had a measurable, positive effect on plant life. Future CO2 increases will boost agricultural productivity and improve drought resistance, thereby bolstering food security and contributing to a greener, lusher planet.

————

Did the shelf fish and the plankton at the base of the food chain in our increasingly acidic ocean get this lovely memo???

Higher levels CO2 being absorbed by or oceans = lower Ph

#116 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 12.28.17 at 11:28 pm

It’s warmer in Siberia because of changing weather patterns. So, yes. – Garth
……………………….

While Arctic sea ice has dwindled, Antarctic sea ice has persisted and even grown.

What could explain this phenomenon?

Finally, scientists have cracked the case.

According a new study published in Nature Geoscience, the culprit in all that cooling is really, really old water.

“The oceans around Antarctica — if you look at temperature trends over the last 50 years — that’s the one place that hasn’t been showing a lot of warming,” Kyle Armour, University of Washington professor of oceanography and lead author on the study, said in an interview. “It’s actually shown a little bit of cooling in the last 30 years.”

#117 acdel on 12.28.17 at 11:34 pm

#110 SWL1976

Not buying it; go after those including our country that dumps billions of liters of raw sewage or waste into our oceans; fukishima, all Asian undeveloped or developed countries including all the so called developed western countries; CO2 is nothing but beneficial; go after the real culprits and leave the rest of us alone; we have done our share, let them do theirs! Stay out of my wallet, although there is nothing left in it due to _____ like you that just do not get it. Give 80% of what you earn to this cause, heck why not 100% and see if it makes a difference.

I do not know you, but if you drive a vehicle or own more then one (gas powered), heat your home with gas or oil, even carbon emitting and fish destroying hydro dams, fly all over the world; have spent zero on retrofitting your house with solar panels or whatever else; if not, then shut the F* up hypocrite!

#118 Smoking Man on 12.28.17 at 11:39 pm

This 3 hour time zone thing is not working out for creativity from an empty bottle of wisdom.

The lefties will be happy.

#119 Chelsea on 12.28.17 at 11:46 pm

Looks like North America (Canada), is going into an ice age …. snow etc. Love the snow, and its seasons. Get used to it is here to stay. It’s not global change, it’s life and it’s Canada. Get over it. RE here in B.C. is about to blowout, extinguish …. it is a new year, 2018, lots will be happening… keep tuned.

Happy New Year, Garth and family, and pup!, and all you blog dogs out there …. keep safe!

#120 Tradesman on 12.28.17 at 11:55 pm

#109 ab boxier.

In GTA the price of building materials increased 25-35% in last 3-4 years that’s for sure. This is mainly due to $CAD diving against $USD . But also I suspect the big box stores are increasing their margins because they see how everything is selling like crazy. As to builders here ,you are right ,they are making a killing here. A million dollar townhouse gets you no backyard, osb walls ,small bedrooms and 3 staircases. Contractors doing the work are not making any killing though. Their pay is way bellow city average (that is only way they can work on subdivisions) Lot of illegals,under the table ,non paying tax or wsib or any other insurance workers. The company gets the contract but subs it out to workers mentioned above. City inspectors or labour bord comes in ,everyone runs . The quality of new home builds is so much worse than few years ago it’s not even funny. I suggest you buy older property and renovate than buy new build. And don’t believe in this custom build nonsense. Still same materials but it will cost you more.

#121 BillyBob on 12.29.17 at 12:09 am

#11 kbean on 12.28.17 at 6:07 pm
So, figure it out. Houses people already can’t afford, even at cheap rates. Central bank increases all but certain. Household finances squished. Seriously higher qualifications for borrowers. And higher taxes coming in the T2 budget.

Agree, and I think this is why they will reserve course later in 2018 and cut, or at the very least proceed very slowly.

===================================

Typical Canadian “logic”. If prices of something are too high, make it easier to take on further debt by lowering the price of money (interest rates).

Never occurs to these people that the price of the actual asset should be lower and that maybe, just maybe, some 50-yr-old piece of junk decaying wooden abode in the world’s 2nd largest country with a minuscule population really shouldn’t be selling for seven figures…

#122 Maxwell C. on 12.29.17 at 12:55 am

Re: the above quote from you, “Price reductions are outpacing increases four to one. – Garth”.

I quoted something similar from you to someone last year, and while totally factually true, I got slapped back with “Well of course! Sellers ask high, then lower. Why would they ever raise asking prices if something isn’t already selling!?”.

Could you please explain to me why such data from statistics and places like myrealtycheck.ca have any value if they are just pointing out how things are usually sold (ask high, if it doesn’t sell, lower a bit. If something doesn’t sell at a given price, if one wants it sold, raising that price would seem foolish).

I’ve been pondering this for a while now? Maybe email me on it, or throw it in a blog post? Or hell, even a reply here would be great: I’ll check back tomorrow on this page.

I’d like a clever comeback if I ever happen to mention this to someone again.

Obligatory suck up: LOVE the blog: I read it every day.

Obligatory photo of the family dog: https://photos.app.goo.gl/DYFkDxQbcpReYriT2

She looks like she’s foreboding the coming crash and owns RE in Van :-)

Other one of her “sleeping on it”:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/AhS1cddEE5dKkKo82

I hope to hear back from you on this, for “as melon scratchers go, that’s a honeydoodle!”

#123 Adrian on 12.29.17 at 1:04 am

#75 isuckless on 12.28.17 at 9:14 pm

“Maybe you should take a look at the real data…”

*****

I feel bad for you right now… Did you even bother to look at your own reference before trying to use it against me? Here is one of the last sentences from the page you linked to:

“As mentioned, satellites measuring the ice sheet mass have observed a loss of around 200 Gt/year over the last decade.”

Furthermore, most of that page is discussing a MODEL, not “actual data,” as made clear by the *first* sentences on the page. Count how many times they use the word “model” in the first paragraph:

“Here you can follow the daily surface mass balance on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The snow and ice model from one of DMI’s climate models is driven every six hours with snowfall, sunlight and other parameters from a research weather model for Greenland, Hirlam-Newsnow, and since 1 July 2017 the HARMONIE-AROME weather model.”

#124 slick on 12.29.17 at 1:06 am

Re: Bitcoin;
I watch the commodity futures on barchart.
2 weeks ago, when Bitcoin started trading futures,
they put it right at the top of the list , above the US dollar.
Today, it is at the bottom of the pile.
I guess that is the sentiment now.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/major-commodities

#125 Adrian on 12.29.17 at 1:47 am

“I feel bad for you right now…”

Sorry, that was pretty rude of me. I’ll try to refrain from doing it again. And thanks for the link, even if it didn’t support your argument. Just… double-check your references in the future, okay?

#126 SoggyShorts on 12.29.17 at 1:50 am

Holy crap, do people really think humans have not had any impact on the world’s climate?
Cutting down most of the trees, and pumping crap into the air for decades has had zero effect?

The simple way to prove to yourself that we have an impact is to think of the opposite of reducing emissions:
What do YOU think would happen if we cut down most of the remaining trees, and increased our output of crap into the air tenfold? Twentyfold?

Think about it. Think really hard, and then find one of the thousands of articles online that doesn’t side with your tinfoil hat conspiracy narrative.

#127 Garth jr on 12.29.17 at 4:06 am

Awwww, the poor builders can’t sell their crap, over priced, garbage houses. Boo hoo! They could sure sell them if they lowered the prices though. Problem is they don’t want to go back to making a working mans wage, they want to continue milking people for millions and living their high end lifestyle. No sympathy… glad people finally got a brain.

#128 Melvyn Kelvin on 12.29.17 at 6:30 am

#105 Hugh Janus on 12.28.17 at 10:45 pm
Global warming my ass, give your head a shake. You cant predict anything until you average out 500 years of weather records, which like doesnt actually exist, hello.

————-
Bonjour. While meteorologists in the 1500’s were restricted by their unions to just recording when meteors appeared, a lot of other guys did write down stuff about weird weather. Later someone figured out the trees record the weather too, if you didn’t already cut them down to make paper (e.g., to record the weather ). Before that, papyrus was the paper used to record tons of stuff about crops and weather, but thermometers were not invented yet.

So the weather today is weirder than before. Seems a bit warmer overall, but who cares about a few degrees. Except maybe polar ice and your testicles. I am not certain the future will be bleak, but scientists do get it right more often than monkeys. It is difficult to shake your head when it resides in your rectum, but you could give it a try. A bit extreme, but these are trying times.

#129 dharma bum on 12.29.17 at 7:01 am

What are the top 10 ETFs to own in 2018?
Anyone?

#130 No raise!! on 12.29.17 at 7:05 am

Poloz has proven that he will never raise rates again.

By raising them twice this year? – Garth

#131 maxx on 12.29.17 at 7:10 am

#25 CL on 12.28.17 at 6:43 pm

“The arrogance of man never changes. The whole thing is sad. Very, very sad.”

Agree 100% – even with the first sentence above. The final 2 sentences, which I keep seeing with irritating frequency, however, I completely disagree with.

Arrogance and its consequences are not sad. Pathetic, maybe. Arrogance has been and always will be a nasty behavioural propellant. It led to man thoroughly screwing his own kind throughout history, convincing him to the point of blindness that he is entitled to adopt dumb-a$$ airs and graces and get away with hurting people.

Arrogant people are a$$holes and their behaviour manifestly stupid. They deserve to wallow in their own dung. Unfortunately, far too many get away with the fallout of their stupidity. Generally, the powerful.

But not debtors.

Arrogance is not sad. It’s stupid and destructive.

#132 Howard on 12.29.17 at 7:17 am

#90 LivinLarge on 12.28.17 at 10:04 pm

Oh, and for the folks invoking Rex Murphy…you do realize he is a satirist don’t you?

———————–

So??

So was George Carlin. You think he didn’t make valid points?

Satirists get to the heart of the matter better than any other type of observer.

#133 Howard on 12.29.17 at 7:27 am

On climate change.

I lament that environmentalists have become one-issue caricatures. Indonesia’s rainforests are being destroyed so that Westerners can have cheap Nutella (palm oil). The Pacific ocean has a massive plastic island the size of Texas that will take hundreds, even thousands of years to break down. Sharks are being utterly decimated for their fins, a nutrition-less, taste-less pile of cartilage prized in China.

Not a peep from the enviro-fanatics. They have focused their attention on a problem that may or may not be man-made, which may or may not have implications 100 years from now, while ignoring real environmental problems occurring today, this very minute.

#134 LivinLarge on 12.29.17 at 7:49 am

“by the time the bank sells a repo at whatever loss plus fees, there’s no way they are losing 100% equity in the place.”…well, you’d think (or hope) so but you’d likely be wrong for a couple of reasons.

Having been on the lender’s side of the equation (a while ago though) I know first hand the narrow row they have to walk in a POS or FC. First they aren’t permitted a profit in the process. After reasonable expenses the best the lend is “permitted” is to break even so that’s a terrible position to be in with some huge sums involved.

Lenders have the unenviable position of getting kicked squarely in the pearls by any serious declines in house selling prices while the borrower is more often than not sheltered from actually having to cover any shortfall. L

I’m not suggesting that front loaded mortgages aren’t seriously lucrative for lenders, just that a 20% fall in selling price plus fees can put the lender on the knife edge for really losing some coin. This knowledge is why I have only purchased POS property. With a little writing back, you can usually expect to buy a POS about 10% below appraisal because the lender has a fiduciary duty to accept a reasonable offer to purchase and things like taxes, minimum utils etc easily add a grand a month to the soft costs to carry a vacant property.

One real “unknown” in this equation is the property value/condition situation. Much more often than not the borrower leaves the property in far from ideal condition and that too depresses the resale value. Practically every borrower will pay their housing expense before everything else and almost certainly went the second or third mortgage route to stay in their home before letting the 1st mortgage default and the 1st mortgage lender is then stuck wanting clear tittle when the POS process begins. This little wrinkle in the process is why folks doing private lending in years past could charge huge interest while knowing the first mortgage holder would almost always pay them out in the event of default. Private mortgage lending was, for the longest time the most lucrative investment a high net worth individual could make. With a good lawyer and a decent nest egg, a private money lender could make off like a bandit (no not the dog) with very little real downside risk.

So, the 1st lender can’t profit yet has real downside risk especially if there is a real collapse in house values.

#135 Cottingham a bargain on 12.29.17 at 8:08 am

All anyone on this site needs to do to get a real feel of how the average Canadian feels about real estate as an investment is tune into CP24 Hot Property. Make sure you watch yesterday nights episode.

The herd is as obsessed as ever and will push prices higher

Normal people do not watch Hot Property. Reflect on that. – Garth

#136 Sue on 12.29.17 at 8:16 am

@#52 Oakville Sucks on 12.28.17 at 7:43 pm
It must be stated the radiation emitted by that antenna is so high the guy fried his balls in about 5 minutes. He may never be able to procreate. SO STUPID!!!!

Haha stupid on so many levels. Nature has its ways…

#137 SWL1976 on 12.29.17 at 8:43 am

#117 acdel

#110 SWL1976

Not buying it; go after those including our country that dumps billions of liters of raw sewage or waste into our oceans; fukishima, all Asian undeveloped or developed countries including all the so called developed western countries; CO2 is nothing but beneficial; go after the real culprits and leave the rest of us alone; we have done our share, let them do theirs! Stay out of my wallet, although there is nothing left in it due to _____ like you that just do not get it. Give 80% of what you earn to this cause, heck why not 100% and see if it makes a difference.

I do not know you, but if you drive a vehicle or own more then one (gas powered), heat your home with gas or oil, even carbon emitting and fish destroying hydro dams, fly all over the world; have spent zero on retrofitting your house with solar panels or whatever else; if not, then shut the F* up hypocrite!

——–

Did I say something to offend you? Perhaps you need a time out in your safe space as some simple facts sure did put a bee in your bonnet

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QH0HAyxqdoY

It’s quite simple really

Anyways, I don’t understand why people like you need to be so narrow minded and extreme with your – I should not be able to drive or heat my house point of view?

I do what I can to be part of the solution rather than part of the problem. I drive and burn wood for heat and even enjoy brapping around on my dirt bike from time to time. How am I, one person supposed to fix 200 years of industrial revolution?

I don’t agree with a carbon tax and full well understand the complexity of our modern governments being more part of the problem rather than the solution. Trust me I know, more than I would like to know at times. I don’t however argue with science and the scientific community that has studied these subjects in much more depth than a couple of bickering blog dogs

Any apology won’t hurt either for being such a curmudgeon towards someone you do not even know

#138 Wrk.dover on 12.29.17 at 8:44 am

So, picture the world as being round, like a desk top globe actually. I know, it is a stretch to imagine that. Now realise all of the air we live in is as thick as the shine on the paper covering that globe, to scale. All of the lakes of oil burned in our life times ( but never in the life time of any generation before the one ahead of us) made smoke within those confines…no the smoke did not go up up and off in to the room the globe sits on the desk within, it just stayed in the confines of that shine on the globe itself. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of hours of jet flight are spewing heat and particulates into the thin -60C top end of OUR atmosphere eight miles up, daily, but only for the last few decades.

But no, righties tell us, 7,000,000,000 people cooking cultivated food have no effect on the big change unfolding.

Honestly, the centre of the universe is in the head of a denier somewhere near Picton, whose teachings are Lord of the Flies quality creed cultivated in a private school.

#139 isuckless on 12.29.17 at 9:04 am

#125 Adrian:
don’t worry, I am used to much worse ;).
When this craze fisrt started (20 years ago) I was concerned about what is happening. When Al Gore shown up, I started researching (sorry, I have zero trust in politicians) and started to doubt.
BTW, yes I know about “losing 200GT/year” – it has been there for years, probably to satisfy their masters (/s).
Yes, they employ the model to show figures at the upper part of the page. If you go to towards the lower part of the page you get the actual graph (“Bottom: The accumulated surface mass balance from September 1st to now (blue line, Gt) and the season 2011-12 (red) which had very high summer melt in Greenland. For comparison, the mean curve from the period 1981-2010 is shown (dark grey)”).
Anyway, we are all free (or should be) to think differently, however we should not been taxed based on fraud. As someone else mentioned here, our carbon tax (and future carbon insurance premium) is useless and created to fill in pockets of ruling class.
Whatever 35 million Canadians do to “save” the planet won’t matter: there are 7500 million other humans on this planet that are not helping.

#140 isuckless on 12.29.17 at 9:07 am

Interesting link:
http://live.gridwatch.ca/home-page.html

(thank you nuclear)

#141 Prairieboy43 on 12.29.17 at 9:19 am

Garth you are correct. Never, Ever read the comments section on G.F.

PB43

#142 LivinLarge on 12.29.17 at 9:41 am

Well, interesting Howard except that Carlin was a humorist rather than a satirist. Sometimes a subtle difference but always a difference.

BTW, Carlin was indeed a brilliant humorist.

A humorist, in this case Carlin, used hyperbole and exaggeration to distort and amuse while a satirist mocks social conventions to make a social or political opinion.

Now a qualified climate scientist with a firm understanding of the fundamental science can comment effectively using humor but that neither makes them a satarist or humorist. They remain first and fore most a qualified scientist.

Now, there is at least a third possibility here and that’s the very rare case like Stephen Colbert who is a humorist assuming a persona opposed to their real persona to use hyperole to mock.

Murphy is really none of these. Just a satirical commentor on society who has no specialized expertise on that which he speaks but can turn a funny phrase while pointing out apparent incongruities in life. So, in that way he is actually close to Carlin in style rather than substance.

Cherry picking some apparent incongruities is certainly fun but it doesn’t then make any of his comments valid or relevant.

Human generated Co2 as the cause of rising temps on earth sits at about a 4 Sigma level of proof right now and may never go higher but the existence of Dark Energy and Dark Matter sits at about a 2 or 3 Sigma level of proof right now and it too is now widely accepted as real.

#143 Eyestrain on 12.29.17 at 10:41 am

#115 SWL1976 on 12.28.17 at 11:17 pm
#87 FOUR FINGERS WATSON

Did the shelf fish and the plankton at the base of the food chain in our increasingly acidic ocean get this lovely memo???

———

I have my hands full CC’n the shelf fish at the top of the food chain.

#144 Howard on 12.29.17 at 11:30 am

#142 LivinLarge on 12.29.17 at 9:41 am

Thank you for the detailed reply.

Your criticisms of Rex Murphy could be levelled at virtually any political/societal commentator. Or almost any newspaper columnist as well. Or even George Carlin. I don’t think he had a PhD in any of the subject matter he tackled.

So I don’t really get your point. That nobody except the highly specialized – who are as vulnerable to their own biases as anyone else, particularly when the gravy train of government grants is on the line – should be able to critique certain subjects? There are lots and lots of people who prattle on about things they know nothing about (ahem, the PM? he knows nothing about everything…) far more egregiously than the erudite Murphy.

Are scientists really 99% in agreement that man is 100% responsible for alleged warming and that global cyclical patterns have zippo to do with it? When universities censor the publication of research that might reach contrary conclusions and block the advancements of scientists with an alternative thesis, is a survey of “climate scientists” really worth the paper it’s printed on? In order to become a “climate scientist”, by definition you must already have a preconceived view of the subject otherwise you will not be permitted by TPTB to become a climate scientist, period. It’s like surveying Women’s Studies professors and asking them if women are oppressed by the patriarchy and should receive special treatment (quotas) in hiring decisions. Pretty sure 99% would be in agreement and the lone holdout stoned.

#145 rainclouds on 12.29.17 at 11:34 am

Rex Murphy has an impressive vocabulary but is a hypocritical blowhard. A Newfoundlander who Rails against govt spending while sucking at the teat of the CBC for years. His best before date was 10 yrs ago.I do like him kicking Little Potato tho. (BTW who was the genius who thought 4 anchors was a sound fiscal decision? . Gas that bloated redundant entity.)

Politicians are horrified at the prospect of a RE meltdown. They will continue to dither and tinker around the edges. IE do mimimal, keep heads down. Or blather on about “building more housing”. Idiots.

Flew YVR-Denver Dec 17, got a car. Hit Santa Fe, OK City. Little Rock,Memphis, Natchez ,New Orleans now Galveston ,San Antonio next. New construction activity everywhere. Denver was the warmest by far! Fun road trip and we have touques and gloves! in the vernacular of rural Nova Scotia it’s “colder than a witches tit” (cue the hyper sensitive outrage). Down here, 50f for a high, ice for new years. They are blaming ……Canada. Here in Texas the police are warning the good folks that celebratory gunfire NY EVE will not be tolerated. We have our steel umbrella ready….

The chick in the pic will fall to her death before she is 30

Balanced diversified portfolio up 10% this yr. AVG bit over 6% last 4.
Thanks GT for providing such sound advice on your blog!

Happy New Year !

#146 aa3 on 12.29.17 at 11:46 am

I know its a nothingburger amount of money to online housing bulls.

But for us median folks, the median decline in the last year in Greater Toronto from $1.6 million to $1.2 million is $400,000.

#147 Rooster on 12.29.17 at 11:57 am

#28 Kelsey on 12.28.17 at 6:47 pm

“It’s warmer in Siberia because of changing weather patterns. So, yes.” – Garth

So if Global Warming is a valid scientific theory, then what’s the “null” hypothesis? If the mean global temperature doesn’t rise by at least X degrees by 2030, can we call this off, or at least say it wasn’t as big of a deal as we had originally thought? If any deviation from the mean weather pattern can be trotted out as evidence for Climate Change, it’s not a falsifiable theory that conforms to the Scientific Method, despite what the high priests of science might tell us.
———–
Everybody has been skipping English, and History is obviously a write-off, so I’m starting Rhetoric 101. Space is limited.

Never invoke Science to support an illogical argument, it never goes your way. Falsifiability means we can prove when we are wrong, but NEVER prove when we are right. Just like Garth’s blog. So, in your example a temperature rise could be mitigated by melting ice. That is called a confounding variable. It may be a big deal, or not, depending on your elevation. Look in your rye & coke for further proof.

The reading for the next class is “The Lorax” by Dr. Seuss.

Garth, I’m putting for OT today. Is it 14 large now, or in Jan.?

#148 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 12.29.17 at 12:18 pm

A new scientific paper authored by seven scientists affiliated with the Russian Academy of Sciences was just published in the scientific journal Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics.
The scientists dismiss both “greenhouse gases” and variations in the Sun’s irradiance as significant climate drivers, and instead embrace cloud cover variations — modulated by cosmic ray flux — as a dominant contributor to climate change.
A concise summary: As cosmic ray flux increases, more clouds are formed on a global scale. More global-scale cloud cover means more solar radiation is correspondingly blocked from reaching the Earth’s surface (oceans). With an increase in global cloud cover projected for the coming decades (using trend analysis), a global cooling is predicted.

#149 SoggyShorts on 12.29.17 at 12:38 pm

#146 rainclouds on 12.29.17 at 11:34 am
Are scientists really 99% in agreement that man is 100% responsible for alleged warming and that global cyclical patterns have zippo to do with it?
*******************************
Of course not, and virtually no one has ever claimed that.
The VAST majority of scientists believe than man has SOME impact, perhaps enough that we should reduce that impact.

#150 LivinLarge on 12.29.17 at 12:43 pm

Howard, your 11:30 post is excellent.

First, yes my comments regarding Murphy could indeed apply to practically any social/political opinion pundit today.

“So I don’t really get your point. That nobody except the highly specialized – who are as vulnerable to their own biases as anyone else, particularly when the gravy train of government grants is on the line – should be able to critique certain subjects?”…well, no. The qualified “experts” are not qualified by chance. They have been trained in a field and have demonstrated an ability to sepparate their biases when studying a subject. Can they allways remove their biases 100%? Likely no but they are far, far better that than a non trained lay person is. It is inherent in their profession. “Publish or Perish” doesn’t mean publish any crazy shit regardless of how flawed or biased it is. Most climate science professionals are not government employed stooges. They are bone fide accademics subject to peer review and if they consistently fail the “smell test” in a university then they don’t get tenure and end up teaching intro 100 level courses for their lives.

99% of qualified climate scientists are convinced that the earth should be cooling in the last 30 years but hasn’t and has actually increased by 0.9F. Like Conan-Doyle wrote for Holmes, eliminate all that cannot be and what is left must be a correct answer. Then there is one of the fundamental tenents in scientific study, the Principle of Parsimony. The simplest answer is almost always the correct answer to any problem. Sure there are oddities in climate data sets but measurement error can account for those the farther back in time you go so placing importance on cherry picked oddities to prove deliverate obfuscation is terrible science.

Universities today engage in no active editing of research studies. That’s just a myth thrown up by folks who don’t like the research conclusions. They may in very rare situations censor bad research but at best that happens at poorly accredited institutions with maybe religious affiliation.

Presuming a bias simply because a researcher chose to study climate is a pure example of “post hoc ergo proctor hoc” argument.

There are many disciplines contributing to the body of climate research and they all come up with the data upon which climate science is based and they can’t all be conspiring to cook data for the others.

The problem with putting any value on the “lone wolf” scientist is that when the vast majority of science accepts something there is little notice given to another scientist’s comfirming research. The squeaky wheel gets the notice of the unwashed masses. Mixed metaphor, sorry.

Sooooooo, again, if CO2 weren’t the cause of the 0.9 degree rise since 1950 then the average temps on earth would be beginning to decline due to the earth’s position in its 10,000 (or 40,000) year orbit around the sun. Earth was at its closest point to the sun a few years back and the axis tilt was also at the closest to the sun leading up to the early 80s (I think) and that means the 50s to 80s would deliver the warmest temps. That the warmest temps have come much later than the 1980s means either we really don’t know where the earth is in relation to the sun and that’s simply incorrect OR some unseen unmeasured and yet unimagined “thing” is totally screwing with the global climate. And the best theory to “fit” all the data from all the disciplines is direct human impact. Just like dark energy and dark matter seem illogical, nothing else fits the measured climate change in the world.

#151 For those about to flop... on 12.29.17 at 1:06 pm

Hey Maxwell,I am not the Esteemed One obviously ,but I will try and help you out.

I use the website you mention as one of my tools.

Probably would be less relevant if the practice of taking a house off the market to lower the price and then putting it back on all shiny and new was banned.

If you look at my two postings on this thread it contains information from that site.

First house was originally chasing 1.84 just sold ,was asking 1.64 but needed north of 1.7.

Second house was chasing 3.28 but just sold for 2.88 and took a loss of around 300k most likely after everything factored in.They must have realized even at original listing that they bit off more than they could chew because even the original number whilst better than taking a loss was not going to be their ticket to financial freedom.

So yes there is value in that site,even more so if you use the information to follow them down.

So that’s just two of my many cases,the vast majority are holding on but as I wrote in a post maybe 3/4 months ago we would need miracle after miracle for everyone to be o.k.

Well,it’s too late for that ,everyone is not o.k,while the media lost its marbles over the White Spot sale,Mr and Mrs Average were out shopping for vaseline to try and stop the correction from hurting so much.

There was recently a lot of oohing and aahing over the Thinkpol article, but a lot of that information had been posted by myself months in advance.

I will never get any headlines and I have a small band of people that trust me and value the fact that I verify my information and update when necessary.

All I can say is that it is a pleasure to serve as an auxiliary real estate reporter on Canada’s 127th most popular Bitcoin blog…

M43BC

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$&$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$&

#122 Maxwell C. on 12.29.17 at 12:55 am
Re: the above quote from you, “Price reductions are outpacing increases four to one. – Garth”.

I quoted something similar from you to someone last year, and while totally factually true, I got slapped back with “Well of course! Sellers ask high, then lower. Why would they ever raise asking prices if something isn’t already selling!?”.

Could you please explain to me why such data from statistics and places like myrealtycheck.ca have any value if they are just pointing out how things are usually sold (ask high, if it doesn’t sell, lower a bit. If something doesn’t sell at a given price, if one wants it sold, raising that price would seem foolish).

6626 Inverness Street, Vancouver paid 1.67 Just sold

May 30:$1,849,800
Oct 24: $1,649,000

Change: – 200800.00 -11%

2306 W 12th Avenue, Vancouver paid 2.93 ass2.81 just sold for 2.88

Jun 16:$3,280,000
Jun 29: $2,998,000

Change: – 282000.00 -9%

#152 Once-ler on 12.29.17 at 1:07 pm

Hey Garth, here’s a fun party trick for New Year’s Eve.

Edit the posts and substitute “Climate Change Denier” with “pre-Galilean* Bible Thumper” and sit back and watch the fireworks.

Apologies in advance to anyone offended.
* the astronomer, not the doctors

#153 LivinLarge on 12.29.17 at 1:18 pm

And now back to our regular scheduled broadcast, i.e. “The Troubled Future of Real Estate”.

For much of the last 40 years I have had to analyze financial statements so I think I have developed some skill in it. I am also personally, heavily invested in Canadian banks for the last 17 years so I also have a personal interest in their financials.

One of the simplest and clearest indicator of the future of RE I have identified in these 40 years is the change in loan loss provisions that the 5 largest banks make. The banks have 1,000s of people far more knowledgeable and smarter than I am so I figure their opinions on RE’s financial future should be listened to, intently.

As of yet, there have been no significant increases to their loss provisions yet in the last three quarters, previous provisions have proven to be significantly under realized. This is always subject to changes of course but right now the folks who have the lion’s share of first mortgages in Canada aren’t projecting a “shit-storm” of defaults. Ignore the banks’ public prognostications and instead look at their internal moves as the most “true” measure of risk and instability. If any if the biggest 3 of the five sisters has to dramatically increase loss provisions the the storm is upon us.

#154 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 12.29.17 at 1:22 pm

CO2 levels are today, among the lowest in the past 600 million years.

CO2 levels were higher than today in 85% of the past 600 million years.

CO2 levels were as much as 20 times higher in the geological past.

CO2 levels were at least 5 times higher than today in the dinosaur period.

There were three ice ages with more CO2 than today, one had fifteen times more.

CO2 has never been observed in the geological record to be a driver of the climate, even when levels were significantly higher than today.

CO2, by itself, can not cause much warming. For there to be dangerous warming, other things must occur, which would accelerate the warming, called positive feedbacks. The most likely is increased atmospheric water vapor. Positive feedbacks have not been observed to exist in the past and when CO2 levels were signficiantly higher than today. Atmospheric humidity is also actually in decline. link

Global temperatures were mostly warmer than today in the prior 8,000 years, the Holocene. link

#155 Kelsey on 12.29.17 at 1:29 pm

#148 Rooster

By falsifiability, I mean that the theory has a specific prediction that can be tested. For example, if the theory was Global Warming, then if the global mean temperature went up by X degrees in a certain period of years, that might prove the theory. But it would have to be set out before hand. This is the point Rex Murphy – whether you like him or not – is making regarding the shift in language to Climate Change. I don’t know enough about this and I’m sure there is some actual prediction like the ocean will rise by a few inches by 2100, but this is vastly different than what alarmists will imply and to me the belief in Climate Change and whatever the UN says has been conflated with you either believe the world is ending or you are a “denier”.

As it relates to the 97% of scientists, this was a deeply flawed survey. 1) the researchers considered man made to mean 50% impact rather than the generally accepted 90%, 2) it surveyed papers and scientists unrelated to climate, 3) grad students decided what a scientists position was, 4) some scientists publicly disagreed with how their papers were categorized and 5) some of the students categorized hundred of papers in a day so there’s no way the analysis was adequately thorough. Then Obama tweeted the 97% figure and everyone ran with this as proof of scientific consensus. But even if consensus exists that doesn’t prove the theory is correct and we have to question the source of funding for these scientists. And what about the other 3% – do they not have valid opinions? 100% consensus is for something like gravity and im sure 97% of scientists once thought the earth was flat because the church said so.

But let’s also say Climate Change is real and dangerous. Why does the burden all fall entirely on the West until 2030? That’s a lousy deal even if you are very alarmed.

Also, think about how many billions of people would die if we stopped using fossil fuels, particularly in agriculture. Compare that to the actual realistic cost of the Earth getting a little warmer and plants getting some more CO2.

Garth, I promise this is my last post on the topic!

#156 M on 12.29.17 at 1:38 pm

Watch out that global warming :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_5az5OIX2k

buy a tesla
lol

#157 Blobby on 12.29.17 at 2:02 pm

@35 – dan. I know you won’t read or understand this, but scientists haven’t changed their opinion at all. They’ve just changed what they called it, as it confused idiots.

It’s fairly simple to understand. Go look at your air conditioner pumping out cool air, now go check the exhaust for it.. it’s pumping out hot air! Now how does heat generate cold I Wonder?

(And if you do actually wonder that, I suggest a rememedial high school class or 20)

#158 StandardDeviation on 12.29.17 at 2:10 pm

Interestingly, in Australia interest rates are much higher than here with house prices above a million being very normal. One commentator suggested that the government is bringing in 100’s of thousands of immigrants to boost GDP numbers and maintain housing prices? Is our PM Zoolander doing the same? Also, they have a minimum wage on or about $20/hour which is “Pooching” their economy. Something in this scenario is illogical and contrived, where does it end for Canada as well?

#159 Cottingham a bargain on 12.29.17 at 2:11 pm

#135 Cottingham a bargain on 12.29.17 at 8:08 am
All anyone on this site needs to do to get a real feel of how the average Canadian feels about real estate as an investment is tune into CP24 Hot Property. Make sure you watch yesterday nights episode.

The herd is as obsessed as ever and will push prices higher

Normal people do not watch Hot Property. Reflect on that. – Garth
———

Normal or not, a city full of crazy , foaming at the mouth RE “ brick lickers” as you will Garth but v iewership numbers through the roof for this show as I have confirmed.

Call ins from those watching alone should be enough anecdotal evidence that the love of RE continues unabated in the GTS

#160 ben on 12.29.17 at 2:13 pm

Surprised you didn’t include any qualification with this quote:

> Given that, these guys say rising rates will have a far bigger impact now than they would have had two decades ago. “In some markets, notably Vancouver and Toronto, a rate hike could prevent new buyers from entering the market. Consider the effect on new buyers of a 1-point increase in mortgage rates in some cities. Twenty years ago such a hike would have increased the burden of debt service by 4% of median income. Today it would be twice that.”

The price is what the market can bear. That is how prices are set. Ergo if the supply of fiat money falls prices will fall.

If nobody can buy your product there is no market.

This is something you could easily explain to a ten year-old.

#161 LivinLarge on 12.29.17 at 2:25 pm

And yet, from NOAA January 24, 2017:

“A new report, written by scientists with several federal agencies and universities, says that under a worst-case scenario, climate change could raise the oceans an average of more than 8 feet by 2100, about 20 inches more than a previous federal estimate published in 2012. The best case now projected would be an average of about a foot.” Even taking the median of 4 feet would reduce the number of Canadian provinces by 1.

Even their best case scenario would pretty much eliminate PEI.

A few inches? Yea right.

No one is going to die from eliminating fossil fuels in agriculture or anywhere else because they aren’t eliminated over night and with out an alternate fuel source. Elimination is phased in.

Why do you make such crazy claims and insinuations when you know they aren’t real. No lime jello at the home for lunch today?????

#162 Rooster on 12.29.17 at 2:32 pm

#156 Kelsey

OK, you seem willing to reason, are you new here? For the record, I love Rex, what’s not to love.

We accept that local weather forecasts are BS, and the worst that can happen is we leave the umbrella at home. The global climate is a different beast. Theories about it are wrong. That I am sure of because it is too complex. Atomic theory didn’t pop out of somebody’s head over breakfast. It took thousands of years and there are still lots of unknowns.

But the question for me is how wrong are the theories. Predictions will fail to show significance, and they will adjust the theories to account for their observations. They will reassess the importance of things like fire, wood, wind, ice, earth, and water. The same stuff they argued about millennia ago still gets grant funding.

Scientists rarely agree on anything, and sometimes they get it wrong. I have to trust them, they got us this far. But if they f&$* this one up we’re done. I will pay more to heat my home with solar if my great-grandkids survival is the payoff. If not, I died broke but contented.

Happy New Year!

#163 Kelsey on 12.29.17 at 3:02 pm

Happy New Year to you as well Rooster!

I’ve posted a few times in the past but have had a bit more spare time over the holidays. Usually on topic, but have been the victim of a few witty retorts by Garth ;)

#164 John of Grant on 12.29.17 at 3:32 pm

#52 Oakville Sucks on 12.28.17 at 7:43 pm
It must be stated the radiation emitted by that antenna is so high the guy fried his balls in about 5 minutes. He may never be able to procreate. SO STUPID!!!!
—————————————-
radio waves, not ionizing radiation. no ball frying ability.

#165 crossbordershopper on 12.29.17 at 3:37 pm

people still living in Canada? for the weather obviously.It’s plus 23 c. in Miami right now on Biscayne Blvd.
oh ya, the free health care. Just like all the hookers out here, they all want payment upfront, but in Canada they allow you to pay when you pay your taxes. Thats nice of them, then again, i am 50 and never been sick except when i was 8 i broke my arm falling off a swing.
healthy people should just work and make money, poor people can stay in Canada.

#166 SWL1976 on 12.29.17 at 3:49 pm

#155 FOUR FINGERS WATSON

CO2 levels are today, among the lowest in the past 600 million years.

————

Not sure where you got your CO2 hoopla from, but the following link states otherwise

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/the-last-time-co2-was-this-high-humans-didnt-exist-15938

Ice, which we still have has been an amazing source for dating and analyzing atmospheric conditions dating back hundreds of thousands of years

#167 Karma on 12.29.17 at 3:58 pm

#130 No raise!! on 12.29.17 at 7:05 am
“Poloz has proven that he will never raise rates again.

By raising them twice this year? – Garth”

LOL! What proof? The only proof that matters is when he said the Bank of Canada is not responsible for “Your bad choices”.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/10/13/stephen-poloz-household-debt-bad-choices_n_8287772.html

#168 Howard on 12.29.17 at 4:11 pm

#151 LivinLarge on 12.29.17 at 12:43 pm

My main beef with climate religion (and that’s what it’s become) is that it has turned the environmental movement into a bunch of one-issue brain dead drones where it used to be multi-faceted and with more depth. Recall the acid rain activism in the 80s and biodiversity concerns in the 90s, as examples. Today it is all-climate all-the-time and it’s not surprising that so many people tune, even those like myself who are otherwise sympathetic to environmental causes.

What I dislike as well is climate religion inserting itself into other debates by know-nothing leftists as stupid and uninformed as the “climate change deniers” that you criticize. Absolute disgrace that Alberta’s oil should be flagged as “bad” by hypocrites in Montreal and Toronto who are only too happy to use Saudi oil to keep up their lavish lifestyles.

I do not deny man-made impact on temperature fluctuations but so long as the biggest polluter on the planet doesn’t seem eager to reduce (why would it? It wants to join the developed world), whatever Canada can do will be negligible for world carbon emissions but have potentially serious consequences to our quality of life. But it won’t impact the mega rich like Trudeau, Morneau and other limousine Liberal globalists who don’t really give a crap about Canada anyway.

#169 LivinLarge on 12.29.17 at 4:28 pm

“Atomic theory didn’t pop out of somebody’s head over breakfast.”…interesting that you would say that Rooster because Niels Bohr did claim that his explanation of the structure of the atom did actually spring into his head in a nap after a particularly heavy lunch in about 1913.

#170 Triplenet on 12.29.17 at 4:36 pm

#163 Rooster
Local weather forecasts are not important?Misplaced umbrellas are the only consequence?
Ask the airline pilots, farmers, fishermen, construction – including civil, hospitals and first responders. accurate local weather forecasts are very important.
……me thinks you’re warming up to the soup pot.

#171 Oakville Sucks on 12.29.17 at 4:48 pm

#165 John of Grant on 12.29.17 at 3:32 pm
—————————————-
radio waves, not ionizing radiation. no ball frying ability.

******************

Put your gonads in your kitchen microwave and see what “non Ionizing radiation” from the microwave does to them.

It’s the same radiation except you are dealing with a lower intensity and being blasted 24/7. Keep an eye on those people who live near the towers. 5G towers are on there way too.

#172 Russ on 12.29.17 at 4:50 pm

SWL1976 on 12.29.17 at 3:49 pm

Not sure where you got your CO2 hoopla from, but the following link states otherwise

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/the-last-time-co2-was-this-high-humans-didnt-exist-15938

Ice, which we still have has been an amazing source for dating and analyzing atmospheric conditions dating back hundreds of thousands of years
==============================

I love that chart of ice core derived CO2 levels. If you follow other info on that data you will will find that an ice age or severe cooling follows each past spike. And look at the fidelity of the chart, hundreds of thousands of year and then 60 years… that spike would not show if it used something like a moving average. So the best conclusion is we’re heading into an ice age in the next thousand years or so.

Where did our fossil fuel come from?
It was atmospheric CO2 sequestered into the ground a long time ago.
By liberating it now you are simply returning the Earth to its former natural state.

Does that feel better?

Lastly, how about funding some scientists to establish taxation vs. atmospheric CO2 content values? Then we can get to the root of the problem.

#173 alex stanford on 12.29.17 at 5:12 pm

Global warming it seems is a scam. – 27 – 30 without the wind chill in Ontario these days. Record low temperatures measured.

Climate change/with global cooling makes more sense.

Similar to central banking./Poloz claiming that it is not his fault for the debt. It is probably mine.

In the meantime let’s enjoy the great ‘polar vortex’ weather, the increased minimum wage and inflation, the carbon taxes and the diversity /whatever that means as well as the human rights tribunal/end of freedom of expression as well as the political correctness and dedication to Canadians.

In wild bill and T2 we trust.

#174 SoggyShorts on 12.29.17 at 5:21 pm

#155 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 12.29.17 at 1:22 pm
CO2 levels are today, among the lowest in the past 600 million years.
************************
You should really check this out:
https://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=77
If you don’t want to do the reading there is a videa at the bottom.

#175 Lost...but not leased on 12.29.17 at 5:40 pm

ROCKETTE SCIENTISTS…

Einstein was a fraud….
….he was a patent clerk…an insider to information..

Ol Albert ripped off theories of Henri Poincare’…and he wouldn’t debate any challengers to his theories. Speed of light is NOT a constant…debunked in the 1960’s.

#176 Overheardyou on 12.29.17 at 5:48 pm

#77 bubu on 12.28.17 at 9:16 pm
As I said, the prices will be flat and the sales lower but nothing else to cheer…. look at Edmonton… houses on the market for 3-4 years at the high end (over 1M) and nobody is reducing the prices… only a big spike in interest rate (> 2%) can change this and I don’t see that in the next 3 years…

—–

Maybe you missed the intel on the B-20 bombertaking off in a few days. Then add on interest rate rising next year and you have your > 2%

#177 Barbo on 12.29.17 at 6:39 pm

The squeeze will be felt in Alberta too, more so in Calgary as the direct and indirect increase related to the carbon tax, property tax, recycling tax and transit fees.
150$ Direct Carbon Tax per household
460$ Indirect Increase due to Carbon Tax per household
71$ Property Tax
30$ Recycling and transit fees
That’s an extra $710 for 2018, and we are not going to talk about the household portion of the increases to the federal and provincial debt, which will have to be paid by a tax increase at some point in time.

#178 Boots on The Ground in Ptown on 12.30.17 at 1:07 am

IHCTD9

Thought this might interest you and possiby others here.:

http://www.vehiclereman.com

Since we’re deep down the climate change rabbit hole I thought what the heck it sorta fits for today. Its green as well as being good for the wallet, as in save 50% going this route and opting out of buying new for nosebleed $. I emailed back and forth with one of the owners a couple days ago. An engineer. He’s got a white paper on this subject as well, a nice synergy of engineering and economics with a sprinkling of earth friendly. Think you can find it on their site. Came across it in my persuing of the subprime auto funny business subject. In my opin they’ve got a business model just perched on the edge of great opportunity as the face of auto manufacturing/financing and so on seems to be set to be disrupted. Check out Daniel Ruiz on twitter (blindersoff)