First an update on Bitcoin. It was dangling below the $10,000 US mark when this blog last strayed into the morass of cryptocurrencies (Monday night). Well, on Tuesday it smashed that barrier, then roared ahead to $11,500 yesterday making geniuses of all the blog dogs who bought hours earlier. Then it crashed, losing 20% of its value in five hours before settling well below the ten grand mark.
Predictably, bitcoin saw a surge of buying just as it hit the peak – so intense major exchanges crashed under the traffic. Of course, all those new bitcoiners joined the party just before losing their shorts. Surprise!
Don’t like volatility? Shun this sucker.
Now an update on Evan. I heard from the poor sop again. After being humiliated here by two hundred strangers, his love life savaged, you’d expect his tail to be firmly planted between his legs and his confidence puddled. But lo, he started to man up.
“So I read your blog and to say I was startled by what I read was an understatement,” he reports. “I’m not that persona of a man that is portrayed. Emotional, definitely. Incompetent and pathetic, definitely not. You owe me a drink. I’ll tell you my story as a man.”
Evan. Dude. We’re pulling for you. Heed the comments. Better yet, have her read them. Stay well clear when it happens. A helmet would help.
And an update on Vancouver. What a disaster on wheels. As this blog’s being written, the snooty elves and lefty clowns making up YVR’s council are voting on a ‘bold’ housing strategy aimed at making real estate more affordable. If passed, there’s a 100% chance it will succeed – in fact the house-horny citizens of Van could witness a mother of a correction.
Of course, BC was the first jurisdiction to pass a xenophobic, anti-Chinese 15% surtax on real estate purchases by offshore buyers. Then it imposed an empty-house tax which is really just another hit on wealthy people masquerading as a way of getting more rental units to market. Of course a rich guy with a $5 million house who stays there five months of the year will now pay more than $4,000 a month in tax unless he rents it out. How insane is that? Is there a big need in YVR for places leasing for $20,000?
Of course, mortgage rates are rising, and will be going up again as the Fed and the BoC raise the cost of money next month and into 2018. Plus we have the universal stress test adding 2%, starting in a few weeks – expected to reduce overall credit by about 20%. Mortgage guys and realtors are petrified at the potential.
Meanwhile Vancouver has lowered the hammer on AirBnB, while the socialists running the province have further restricted investment by non-residents, and are actively plotting a serious speculation tax. But there’s more – which brings us to this new strategy. The crushing final blow.
If enacted, Van will actually ban all non-residents from owning real estate. That will come with an extra speculation tax, an increased luxury tax and the rezoning of vast neighbourhoods to allow higher densities so nice, old retired couples can live next door to hipsters with whiskers, and learn all about the country’s new cannabis laws.
Maybe Mayor Gregor Robertson didn’t catch the latest news from CMHC. The federal housing agency, responsible for insuring every high-ratio mortgage in the land, reported Wednesday the volume of business it did in the latest three-month period crashed by 44% from year-ago levels. The reason? Buyers with less than 20% to put down on a house must now pass a stress test to prove they could handle the payments if rates rose a couple of points.
Of course, most can’t. So they didn’t buy, or borrowed the down at the Bank of Mom to avoid the test. And it’s for exactly this reason that, starting in four weeks, every single purchaser – regardless of the amount they have as a down payment – must face the same hurdle. You can imagine the result.
Vancouver prices have gone stupid in recent years because of speculation, as real estate was transformed into a financial commodity. Like bitcoin. That was supposed to be money, but has ended up being simply a way to make it.
So once it becomes clear politicians have diddled enough to ensure that making profits buying and selling YVR houses is impossible, the market will react. The mayor says average families should be able to afford average houses there. That’s his holy grail. Fair enough. Household income is about $80,000 in Vancouver, so real estate would have to correct by about 70%.
At least we now know where to send Evan.
157 comments ↓
Canada Get Ready For A Real Estate CRASH As Government May BAN Foreign Buyers!
http://investmentwatchblog.com/canada-get-ready-for-a-real-estate-crash-as-government-may-ban-foreign-buyers/
HEADLINE BREAKING NEWS
Bill Morneau ( the cheat) gets roasted in Ottawa.
Trudeau (the ISIS supporter) blows up cause he wants more terrorists imported into Canada
Matt Lauer gets fired for grabbing things he shouldn’t.
And The lil Rocket Man delivers his best yet.
What a great time to be alive!!!
December 1st is when the federal court of appeal renders its decision on TREB anti competitive practices.
I have a feeling TREB lost! The decision took a long time so decision is a rock solid one and can’t be appealed again!
Good!
Garth, the Van bubble has shifted postal codes to adjacent burbs, the game is going on. Everything is going up except for deposit interest: rents, gas, food, mortgages. Then there’s the Bank of Canada comedy page which explains it all http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/related/inflation-calculator/..
My PSA:
Do not buy Bitcoin. Monero. ETH. Dash. Zcash. BCash (yes, I said it, Roger and
Until you:
1. Learn about and create a solid OPSEC system.
2. Burn your copy of “The BlockChain Revolution”.
3. Stop opening emails from those wealthy princes.
You’ll thank me someday.
RE: “So I read your blog and to say I was startled by what I read was an understatement,” he reports. “I’m not that persona of a man that is portrayed. Emotional, definitely. Incompetent and pathetic, definitely not. You owe me a drink. I’ll tell you my story as a man.”
This whole “man up” thing is just dumb. His GF is not going to understand that. She’ll be like “men, always hiding their emotions. I don’t care what arbitrary reasons you have for doing or not doing something. How do you FEEL!?!?!”
Women use emotional reasoning. Men use principles to reason about things. If you want to win an argument with a girl, you have to argue on her playing field. Otherwise she’ll just think you’re a giant loser and not understand what you’re up to.
Try “well I was feeling that this house really isn’t me. Parts of it I am in love with. But there is a lot of it that just doesn’t sit with me. Let me tell you all about my feelings about houses, and how these feelings connect with me emotionally.” Then turn on the tap….
She’ll understand. You just have to play on her field.
RE: Bitcoin: a whale cashed out it’s chips. Crashed Bitfinex temporarily. This is the other thing that worries me about bitcoin. Most of the coins are owned by a very few people. The rest of the people are just fighting over the scraps. Every so often, one of the big guys cashes out, and the price crashes. Then there is all this bitcoin circulating, which will push things down for a while until it gets absorbed back in.
All hail the People’s Republic of Vancouver!
“YVR’s council are voting on a ‘bold’ housing strategy aimed at making real estate more affordable. If passed, there’s a 100% chance it will succeed – in fact the house-horny citizens of Van could witness a mother of a correction.”
What are the parameters of a “mother of a correction” in the ‘Couv? When does “correction” become a crash?
If fundamentals are 5X (or less) median income or 12-15X (ish) annual rent, is a return to that kind of environment tinfoil hat loony tunes thinking?
Is it more likely Guy Fieri will have a squirrel cooking TV show? (or will these be concurrent events?) So many questions….
Evan you sound like a solid guy – good work holding off and good luck
RATM
Bitcoin block chain is currently has ~100,000 transaction backlog. Blockchain can handle MAX 7 transactions per second and the backlog is growing at ~30 transactions per second.
Each transaction takes enough power to power a home for a week.
It will be interesting to see how this pays out.
If I sell bitcoin how long does it take for the transaction to process and I receive my money?
https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions
Yes Gregor The Dim will ban foriegners from buying in the City in an election year no less.
Sorry Gregor the train has already left the station.
But the damage is done and the voters hate you…. :)
Doesnt matter what Gregor The Dim trys…….he’s toast in the next election.
Foreign investment in YVR RE is small. I learned that here. It follows that taking a small portion of buyers out of the market will have little impact.
Or, foreign investment is large, 20% range in some
areas, and this will crush property values.
Either way stupid rule. There is nothing the mayor can do to make homes in YVR affordable. And banning foreign ownership is a stupid idea. Let this thing blow up on its own!
Huh? So passing a 15% surtax that is ethnically and racially blind is now considered “anti-chinese” and “xenophobic”?? Is this meant to be a joke? Talk about spreading fake news.
Who else is is targeted against? — Garth
@ 7 Ace Goodheart
That is actually a good reply and better way to communicate to g/f to prevent hostile and hurt feelings. Then leave the door open in the future as things can change also.
IMO if one wants to buy a house and live in a long time, raise a family, etc, and can afford it without over extending, then go for it.
Speculation on house for short term will likely not work out.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/andrew-scheer-calls-for-finance-minister-bill-morneaus-resignation/article37126471/
T2 needs to get rid of this guy like right now. He doesn’t know what he’s dealing with here. This is the problem I originally noted with T2. He’s a nice guy, probably totally fun to party with and an amazing person, but he just doesn’t have the sensitivity to know when to pull the trigger on something.
This could crash his government. If it turns out that Wild Bill did actually sell his shares ahead of an announcement of legislative changes that would have the effect of reducing their value, the government might be finished.
It makes me wonder why this guy, who apparently is Oprah-rich, managed to get himself into this stupid situation in the first place. Becoming finance minister of a G7 nation, while holding what, $20 mil or so in public stock, without putting anything into a blind trust, and then just going ahead and making decisions that would have an up or down effect on his share holdings.
Does he not have lawyers advising him? You would think that there would have been some major crisis in a law firm somewhere when he took office, with an urgent meeting called and a quick fix before things got too bad. Who was advising him? Rich kids are dumb. They need people on the ground who are street smart and can take care of this stuff for them ahead of time.
T2 please get rid of him. You are not going to survive this.
The latest stats for rents in the GTA show a low rate of 1% so no news there same old; same old….ditto for Vancouver. The housing affordability issue and low rental vacancy seizing all levels of government is front and centre top priority for the Millineals. The census revealed stagnant income haunts the Millineal Generation cramping their housing options and keeping them home until their late 30’s. The Trudeau Liberal mandate was delivered by the Millennials …..who now have only one major wish on their government list: housing. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz came out with his “report” yesterday stating the “High Level of Immigration” is mostly responsible for the lack of affordable rentals or housing. The Guv is a numbers guy; he is not obliged to toe the Liberal Economic Platform of Uber Immigation. Is it possible we will see a populist platform like Trump to give a voice to all those Mills unable to get out of the basement?
Re bitcoin…I don’t get it. But let me take a hack at it anyways and you bitcoin experts can tell me if I’m wrong.
They come into existence by “mining” them, which is a fancy way of saying your cpu and gpu are number crunching them. You can buy them of course but they all have to be originally number crunched into existence. So lets say you buy a smoking hot pc with a fancy video card and you are ready to go. You start the mining process and your pc gets warmed up. Away it goes playing with itself for a week or longer burning electricity as it goes. Keeping in mind that your smoking hot pc cannot be used for anything useful during this time. Finally when it can no longer control itself, it’s face contorts and out spews a bitcoin. And this cpu spew is an asset? Really? Sounds more like a virtual pet rock to me. I’ve seen this movie before. Several times. I don’t much care for the ending.
I see not difference with the volatility between Bitcoin and Toronto real estate.
Evan needs to keep his 350k savings so that Mark can come on here and tell Evan that deflation will be coming to Canada once the real estate market crashes in Toronto and Vancouver.
I’m not seeing any signs of deflation Mark; one tray of no-name eggs at Loblaws/No Frills was at $1.97 regular a few months ago, but now it’s at $2.27 to $2.88 regular.
These grocers are now offering sales from $ 5 to $10, and a package of diapers is so costly that many stores have to secure it with grills and alarm systems that can only be opened by pressing a buzzer for customer service to send a staff or security guard to open.
California,number one two nights in a row…
M43BC
“Mapping the Fiscal Burden of Illegal Immigration on the United States
There’s a lot of confusion and misunderstanding out there around the economic impact of illegal immigration in the United States. We decided to bring some clarity around the issue by mapping new numbers on the estimated costs of illegal immigration on a state-by-state basis.
Our viz takes data from the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) about how much illegal immigration costs in each state. FAIR takes into account a variety of different expenditures, like healthcare, education and refundable tax credits. We mapped these numbers across the United States according to a color-coded scale. Purple and dark red states have comparatively high expenditures, but the pink and blue states spend relatively less money because of illegal immigrants. There are two interesting trends you can see from looking at the data in this way.
First, states that spend the most on illegal immigration tend to be located close to Mexico. Looking at out map, the two states with the highest expenditures are California ($23B) and Texas ($11B), both sharing long borders with Mexico. In fact, there’s a cluster of dark red states stretching along the Southwest. States closest to the phenomenon pay the most as a result.
Second, states with higher population levels tend to spend more than their less populated counterparts. You can see a group of high-expenditure states clustered around the Northeast, not to mention Illinois and Florida. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, California and Texas are also the two most populous states in the country. High population levels and proximity to Mexico act like a double-whammy for illegal immigration expenses.
Now take a look at the places with relatively low levels of expenditures for illegal immigration, the light blue states. They are all located far away from the U.S.-Mexico border with relatively small population levels. West Virginia is perhaps an exceptional state, seeing that it is surrounded by red and dark red. We can speculate that this is likely due to the fact that West Virginia has a struggling economy which actually contracted last year.
We should add that the source for the numbers in our viz come from a partisan outfit. The Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) advocates for legislation designed to decrease immigration, and you can poke holes in their methodology. For example, suppose immigrants really are paying less in income taxes because of their illegal status. Forbes estimates that granting them amnesty would actually boost their state tax contributions by $2.1 billion. That’s the exact opposite conclusion than what FAIR would like you to believe.
That being said, here’s a list breaking down the States with the highest expenditures for illegal immigration according to FAIR.
1. California – $23,038,125,353
2. Texas – $10,994,614,550
3. New York – $7,489,141,357
4. Florida – $6,290,429,108
5. New Jersey – $4,466,838,574
6. Illinois – $3,220,767,517
7. Georgia – $2,487,719,503
8. North Carolina – $2,437,965,113
9. Maryland – $2,378,996,947
10. Arizona – $2,314,131,964
Remember, these numbers only look at the net expenditures that states spend on illegal immigration, and they say nothing about other contributions to the economy. Any way you cut it though, whenever states are spending billions of dollars on something, it’s worth taking a hard look at where the money is going and why.”
https://howmuch.net/articles/state-by-state-costs-of-illegal-inmigration
Bitcoin and non payment of taxes on gains and the taxman. This should prove interesting and could have quite an effect on the price of Bitcoin down the road.
https://goldsilver.com/blog/bitcoin-tax-the-coinbase-fiasco/?utm_campaign=20171128_Newsletter&utm_content=20171128_newsletter_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_source=zaius
Is there a big need in YVR for places leasing for $20,000?
————
That’s pretty well the point. The price of housing is normally tied to its utility. If you can’t rent it for 20K then, guess what, you’d be stupid to pay 5M for it. This law is partially a reminder. It’s like one of those flashing “Your speed: xx” signs you see when you are about to enter a sharp turn.
“The mayor says average families should be able to afford average houses there. That’s his holy grail. Fair enough. Household income is about $80,000 in Vancouver, so real estate would have to correct by about 70%.”-GT
Finally, we’re in agreement about the magnitude of the impending “correction” (I like to call it a ‘crash’). The centuries old 3-4x gross family income should once again become the ‘norm’ for housing affordability.
Of course, if the CAD loses 35-40% against the USD, in nominal terms the decline won’t look so bad.
But in real terms, it will.
TCC
#5 Robert
True enough. Plenty of other places to purchase other than Vancouver in the GVRD. Still, most desireable properties are in Vancouver.
No. of Private Occupied Dwellings, Rented & Owned, 2011, some of the other smaller cities not reported by CMHC:
City | Dwellings | % of Total
Burnaby 86,840 11%
Coquitlam 45,555 6%
Delta 34,755 4%
Langley 37,240 5%
Maple Ridge 28,040 3%
New Westminster 30,585 4%
North Vancouver 27,790 3%
Port Coquitlam 20,650 2%
Port Moody 12,635 2%
Richmond 67,975 8%
Surrey 152,845 18%
Vancouver 264,575 32%
West Vancouver 17,075 2%
All 826,560 100%
Vancouver has ‘jumped the shark’.
The offshore money sloshing around in this place is unbelievable. Spend an afternoon downtown at Nordstrom’s and you’ll get a good feel for what this city has become. It’s gross. I am all for locking out the foreign buyers. They have literally destroyed the culture of Vancouver. Imagine if every second cottage in the Muskokas was bought up by a foreigner. Wonder how the lowly Canadian cottager might feel about their ‘neighborhood’…
Good riddance foreign buyers.
Next step is to prosecute all the tax cheats who got in under the investor immigrant schemes.
…Of course, BC was the first jurisdiction to pass a xenophobic, anti-Chinese 15% surtax on real estate purchases by offshore buyers…
_ _ _
Garth, as a former member of the Government of Canada why would you argue that we should sell scarce real estate to Non-Canadians. Especially when you have blogged again and again about how damaging these high prices are to naive first time buyers? Unlike most Canadian cities land in Vancouver (sandwhiched between the mountains, sea and US border) actually is scarce.
Second, are you arguing against a speculators tax? I thought you blamed speculators (albeit local) for the insane run-ups in prices?
A question regarding Bitcoin. What would be the value of this crypto currency if for some reason you are no longer able to convert it to our current fiat currency? Isn’t it like having hot money that needs to be laundered? I would think that if Bitcoin is being used to launder currency that TPTB would be getting onto that real quick and putting an end to it. The other thing is that those that have been speculating in these crypto currencies for the most part, have not been claiming their gains so expect the Feds to be issuing letters real soon as they see potential large revenues to be had. Going to be a lot of people with a big tax bill in the mail plus penalties and fines. Should be interesting.
Obvious fact: The purpose of the stress test is to make the majority of mortgagors stay with their existing lender for the full 25 amortization period: no more rate shopping, unless you are financially well established, well documented etc. Everyone else can suck air.
It’s the banker’s harvest, disguised as managing unproven risk. A lie believed by everyone is not the truth.
The reg is coming from OSFI, the federal bank regulator, not the banks. — Garth
So does any of this mean I’ll finally be able to buy back that prime Port Moody townhouse I bought for $165k in 1996, sold for $192k in 1999, for $130k?
Didn’t. Think. So.
Still not sold on the U.S. Fed raising rates – we’ll see. Jim Rickards’ models predict a contrary move to the consensus.
And I can’t be the only one here who thinks that the mortgage stress test is typical pathetic Canadian nanny-state meddling. The big daddy government finger-waggling us little dependent Canuckistas. “You make sure you can pay a mortgage at 2% higher than the posted rate, or we won’t let you buy a house of your very own!!”
Something the matter with grown men and women putting on their big boy/big girl pants and making rational financial decisions, saving and spending frugally without some white knight bureaucrats deciding what they can afford with their own currency? Get in mortgage trouble because you spend too much on other crap, pay the price.
As for Evan. Stand your ground. Listen to garth’s advice. Show your backbone. Stick to your guns. Lots of time to buy a house in the future. She’ll respect you for manning up. No matter how she “feels” now.
This quote from global witness pretty much exposes the height of corruption in Canada.
“The ability to hide and spend corrupt funds overseas is a large part of what makes grand scale corruption possible and attractive.”
Laundering money through real estate (worldwide) is just another element of this.
What I am wonder is , how I can do something about Trudea, Morneau, and everyone else complicit with this corruption in 2017. Any help with this Dogs?
M
If some of these new extreme measures against non resident/ foreign buyers are implemented the ones most hurt will be as usual the locals
The hit to GDP will be major and market liquidity will suffer mostly on the higher end
The measures in place are already sufficient and rules already on the books just need to be enforced !
95% of the buyers are NOT foreigners and 95% of flippers ARE locals
These crazy actions will deepen the inevitable correction with much worse job loss and recession
One year from now let’s touch base and see how the economy and your “equity” is doing
Dumb Canucks – you will get the government you deserve
The government big enough to give you what u want is strong enough to take everything you have
Left wing brain disease is taking over this country
Now you’re talking. We set the bar high in New Zealand so that others could learn. Xo.
yesterday’s comments have only increased my confidence in the wisdom of the crowd composed of esteemed dogs of this excellent blog (thank you Garth for all the hard and free work!)
So I have a question for you related to real estate and life, naturally, as these two go hand in hand. I have comparable job offers in Calgary and Ottawa. We have never lived in either of these places as we are relatively new Canadians from Western Europe, but here to stay for good. We visited them and like both. We have four small kids to raise 1,3,6,8. Currently we live in Ontario. Financially we are doing great having tons of passive income supplementing our reasonable active incomes. We can afford a house up to 1M with a huge DP and still leaving tons of money in the balanced portfolio.
Now, I have run the numbers and the logical thing would be to rent. However, my wife wants to own and since we have spent awesome 15 yrs together, I am happy to accommodate her wish. Also we have created our wealth together so we both have an equal say.
Now, I found quite some value in Ottawa already around 800k in great goods with quality schools, huge private yards etc. But in Calgary, I have trouble finding it even close to 1M. Either the houses are cheaply renovated small bungallows, or infills on 30ft lots, or cookie cutter “luxury” homes in dormitory burbs where you are looking into your neighbors’ windows. But we like the idea of being so close to the great outdoors a lot. But Ottawa has that to some extent as well.
So the question is: Blog dogs who have experienced raising a family in one of these places, which one would you recommend based on your experiences considering that Ottawa seems to have better value in the RE market but Calgary has greater outdoors recreation?
Don’t sell you Bitcoins yet Blog Dogs … the herd is about to come in (including institutional investors).
First an update on Bitcoin.
________________________
This reminds me, a nice tale on crypto coins:
Economic Warfare 2.0
(when Bitcoin is literally Game of Thrones)
https://medium.com/@benjamin01/economic-warfare-2-0-3de86d22bd6e
Be sure to give a writer some applause at the end of this very well-written and intriguing piece. OK?
Best,
F.S., Comox, BC.
Face it Garth! Almost all blog dogs based in Vancouver and pay taxes here (a.k.a. people whose voices actually matter) disagree with your view.
Anyone not connected to real estate industry agrees that a downward pressure in pricing to a factor of 15-20% is what is needed (as supply increases) to make housing affordable/available to the hardworking millenials and Gen Xs struggling to build a career and raise a family here. Furthermore, you’ve been harping on the benefits of renting all these years and I bet a lot of people who visit your blog didnt end up buying as a result. Now with the OSFI stress test more people will be unable to buy housing of their choice and that will strain the rental market even more. The least you can do is not rub it in by making a case for foreign investors to be allowed to buy $5M mansions. we all know it wont solve the entire problem but it helps depress demand.
BTW $5M doesn’t buy much in point grey or Kitsilano and $20K rental is unthinkable. In essence, its time for you to just stick to investment advice and not mislead innocent people with your biased views.
The stress test will make it easier for people to buy, ultimately, by virtue of its depressing impact on prices. Kicking foreigners in the stones will do nothing to assist you. — Garth
Fully applaud the GTA and GVA RE reforms and controls – about time Gov did something to get Canadian families into Canadian homes instead of having ghost town condos as holding places for foreign laundered cash or the infection of transient airbnb neighborhoods. Love watchin Government actually do it’s job, which in capitalism boils down to: Govern the greed of the people. Also nice to see Garth finally waking up to the Bitcoin bubble this week. What took you so long – it’s the biggest financial thing in bubble land.
#34 young & foolish on 11.29.17 at 8:54 pm
Don’t sell you Bitcoins yet Blog Dogs … the herd is about to come in (including institutional investors).
——————————————————————
Along with the IRS and CRA. These will be the downfall for these crypto currencies and ICO’s. Don’t ever think that Bitcoin or any of these others is unstoppable. In fact most of those ICO’s are nothing more than scams. I believe that Bitcoin will go down in history in a similar fashion to how BreX did once the regulators step in and put a stop to the nonsense. Invest wisely, you still have some time to play around with these things but like any other bubble, you will need to cash in before the herd catches on to what is going on. Once the institutions join the party is when things are going to get really interesting. Can’t wait.
#13 People
“Who else is is targeted against? — Garth”
Non-resident means non-resident. Period. It doesn’t specify any countries. No need for inflammatory rhetoric. People in Vancouver want this. All I can say is – it’s about damn time, should have been done 20 years ago. Still plenty of room for foreign investment in commercial and rental real estate. There is no reason why we need to make residential property available for foreign speculation/safe-haven investment.
That data shows most people are moving in from abroad, not laundering anything but their shirts. You have swallowed the Kool-Aid. Taxing/booting these folks is xenophobia rampant. Shameful in Canada. The cause of high prices (besides low rates and CMHC) is speculation, most of which is done by locals. — Garth
I thought only non insured mortgages will have to pass the 200bps stress test.
Reply to #33:
I have lived in Ottawa for 20 years and love it. Have 2 small kids and a very active/outdoorsy lifestyle. While you can’t beat the Rockies for downhill skiing and sheer awesomeness, there’s lots of ski hills and trails only a short drive north in Quebexico. I lived in Calgary 25 years ago and found it ‘provincial’. Of course it has probably changed enormously so I can’t really compare. Also note that housing prices in Ottawa are very stable. Toronto and Hongcouver can implode and house prices will barely dip here. Of course that works the other way too: if I had bought in Toronto 20 ago I’d be rich now. But T.O. is way too big for me and of course…the Leafs suck.
This is Vancouver Sun article with Mayor Robertson admitting importance and influence of foreign money in Vancouver and how he tried to warn Cristy Clark. He may be collecting points for upcoming elections but still… he is right about foreign capital shaping the city real estate scene in the last 10 plus years. Other things were to blame, such as low interest rates and domestic speculators. My friend was kicked out of her condo two weeks ago (with son and husband) because it was sold for $2MIL to another speculator. They were kicked out twice in two years! It may be bad luck but speculation is rampant and real! It’s hurting people and families. Government needs to intervene. Limit the amount of properties own by foreign nationalist. Increase speculation tax, flipping tax, etc. You can’t even rent in this city because apartments and houses are being flipped like crazy and people are facing evictions etc. Something must be done.
Article:
On the eve of a comprehensive, 10-year housing strategy going before Vancouver city council, Gregor Robertson reflected on the impact of offshore money in local real estate over his three terms as mayor of Canada’s most-expensive city.
“In my travels this year in Sydney (Australia) and New York, my sense is that Vancouver’s seen the most rapid impact of global capital of any big city globally,” Robertson told Postmedia News on Monday. “We’re among a group of big cities that have attracted hundreds of billions of dollars each in investment, but Vancouver has seen that hit in less than a decade, where it took several decades in many of those other cities, so they had more time to adjust.
“But it’s hit us like a ton of bricks.”
During the last nine years while Robertson has been mayor and his Vision Vancouver party has had a majority on council, Vancouver’s affordability crisis has deepened and the gap has widened between local incomes and home prices. But, Robertson stressed Monday as he’s said in the past, it’s not a problem that city hall can solve on its own.
Now, with less than a year until Vancouver’s next general municipal election in which housing is expected to be, by far, the dominant issue, city staff will present the Housing Vancouver strategy to council Tuesday. The strategy, more than a year in the making, touches on several different facets of housing, with proposed measures intended to address both the supply and demand sides of the current crisis. The strategy, particularly on the “demand” side, calls for collaboration with the provincial and federal governments.
The 248-page strategy package includes proposals for working with senior governments to explore measures such as reforming regulations for capital-gains taxes and closing “loopholes,” introducing a “speculation and flipping tax,” and increasing the provincial luxury tax.
And in a city where the topic of foreign real estate investment has been perhaps the most hotly debated issue in recent years, one particularly eyebrow-raising proposal seeks to explore “restricting property ownership by non-permanent residents.” The city, provincial, and federal governments have all drawn criticism in recent years for their handling of the foreign ownership of property, especially in red-hot housing markets like Vancouver and Toronto.
But, Robertson said Monday, “there’s no question that capital from beyond Vancouver’s borders has dramatically affected our real estate market.
“Where in the world it comes from is not the issue, and what nationality an offshore investor is doesn’t matter,” he said. “This is all about regulating the flow of capital and ensuring that it’s taxed appropriately, and taking care of Vancouver’s housing and ensuring it’s available to people who live and work here.
“It’s not about race or nationality,” he said. “We can’t have a real estate market that is completely disconnected from local incomes, and that’s what we’re trying to rectify.”
Vancouver has already taken some steps aimed at reducing the “commodification” of housing, including the country’s first Empty Homes Tax and a proposal requiring condo presales to be offered to locals first before being sold overseas. These measures have been criticized by some for going too far, and by others for not going far enough.
cule for another year before they took action with one step, with the foreign-buyers’ tax,” referring to the 15-per-cent tax on foreign-property buyers in Metro Vancouver implemented by the province in summer 2016.
“We can’t fix this on our own in Vancouver. We don’t control offshore investment or the real estate industry. So we’ve got to keep the pressure on Victoria and Ottawa to follow through on their responsibilities,” Robertson said Monday, adding he has “far more confidence now” in the senior governments compared with their respective predecessors.
Robertson said he had recently spoken with B.C. NDP Attorney-General David Eby, who previously served as the opposition party’s housing critic, to discuss “next steps” on new measures, though Robertson declined to provide further details Monday.
“The big problem we’ve had is that provincial and federal governments didn’t do their job regulating the influx of global capital and the real estate industry, and ensuring that taxes were being paid and speculation and flipping was under control,” Robertson said. “We had years of this being a free-for-all, and that drove up real estate prices.”
The Housing Vancouver strategy, which Robertson said he hopes council will unanimously endorse, will be presented to council Tuesday morning.
[email protected]
twitter.com/fumano
Money is no longer just a medium of exchange, it is also a commodity which can be bought and sold and rented and speculated. Housing is no longer just a place to live, it has also become a commodity which can be bought and sold and speculated and the capital gains are tax free. Such a deal ! I don’t have a problem with Canadian housing being only for Canadians who live and work and pay taxes in Canada.
If it is true that foreign buyers only account for say 5%, then why are we worried if we tax the crap out them. Shouldn’t have much effect on bottom lines anyway. Why not try? If it turns out to be more like 15-20%, then we’ve looked after our own!
Garth
Can you or another blog dog explain in simple terms what is the easiest way to purchase bitcoin…
#33 Calgary vs. Ottawa
Well, I live in Ottawa and my brother in law lives in Calgary. So I can give you some perspective.
– Alberta is in better financial position, and likely to stay that way. Ontario is going to be hurting. Taxes lower in Alberta and again likely to be that way. This could even the score of more affordable housing in Ottawa vs. CGY.
– Calgary has the mountains, but Ottawa has lakes. I give Ottawa a close 2nd here.
– Ottawa has many more destinations in a relatively close drive. Montreal is 2 hours away, TO 3.5, NYC 7.
– Ottawa has warm summers, you can actually use a swimming pool for 4-5 months, and winter doesn’t arrive in early October (although cold in both when it does come).
– Calgary has a more vibrant culture and engaged population. Tough to get the Ottawa civil servants out to the sporting events it seems, or just about anything other than an anti corporate rally
– Personally I found when out in Calgary visiting that I miss the trees of the east. It feels very wide open there.
– Overall I prefer Ottawa, but acknowledge that aside from more affordable housing – my house would be worth 2.5x as much in a 905 suburb, vs it’s Ottawa sub – being in Ontario causes a financial impact.
Just a few things to think about.
“BC was the first jurisdiction to pass a xenophobic, anti-Chinese 15% surtax on real estate purchases by offshore buyers.”
Honest question here, there are a number of limitations and regulations on foreign ownership in China. Is that xenophobic?
Should China be our role model? — Garth
I am not sure if this is correct or not, but this is the rumor swirling around Bitcoin:
The way Bitcoin is created is through computers crunching complex algorithms. As more and more Bitcoins are created, the algorithm becomes exponentially more complicated, requiring more and more computer power, and more electricity consumption. The estimate is that it now cost around $6,000 in expenses just to ‘mine’ one Bitcoin, which was selling at just over $7,000 when that story was created. As the demand for Bitcoin is not going away; as more people want to buy it, there has to be more created, and as the cost of creating them goes up so does the cost of making those Bitcoins. According to calculations, at the end of 2018 the cost to make one Bitcoin will be around $23,000 so Bitcoin itself should be around $25,000. One year later the cost to make one Bitcoin will be over $70,000 so Bitcoin should be selling around $80,000 or so. Every 2 years the price of the coin rises 10-times due to lack of supply.
what’s going to crash the whole Bitcoin bubble is when there are so many other alternatives that are cheaper and better, and when that happens the demand for Bitcoin becomes so low that the profits for ‘Mining’ Bitcoin won’t cover the miner’s operating costs, and they will shut down. When the price of Bitcoin falls below the cost to produce it, the Bubble pops and Bitcoin will fall to $100, perhaps even under $1 in less than 2 to 3 weeks. But that crash is calculated to be somewhere around 7 years from now, so the price of Bitcoin will reach around $1 Million between now and then.
bitcoin reclaims 10,400
govt have no idea how to control this guy. borderless. a tax-evaders dream…..
E-van should enroll into Smoking Man University (SMU).
Undergraduate: a degree in Lesbonics.
Masters level: J.D. (no not Juris Doctor but Jack Daniels)
PhD: Herdonomics
#33 Calgary vs. Ottawa
I enjoyed these two cities, having lived in both for a couple of years.
I would add one factor for your consideration:
Ottawa has the advantage of being much closer to other major metropolitans this side of the Great Lakes. Calgary is far away from other major cities. Therefore, choosing Ottawa will benefit you children’s future. They may even end up with an entirely different career if they are allowed to grow up in Ottawa.
Choose Calgary if you want them to become ski/snowboard instructors
#33 Calgary vs. Ottawa
# 41 SpeedWeasel
# 46 PastThePeak
——
Thank you both for very useful information. We do not want to then move again to give kids the stability of growing up in one place.
We are somewhat limited in our decision making by our Canadian newness. Another source of our decision making difficulty comes from the fact that each of these two cities offers a young outdoorsy family a lot of positives, so any additional data points from blog dogs who have experienced living in these cities would be awesome. Thanks in advance.
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So, the majority of speculators are domestic,,??? Like how many,51,53,60 %
I worked out next to Christie Clarke this week (she was trying to workout at least)- omg she has put on like 30lbs. She must be crushing Big Macs and hot fudge sundaes. She is evil and is the cause of so much pain and suffering in BC I thought that I would share with everyone that she is now suffering from what looks like a serious case McDonalditis. I loathe and despise her and while it may seem shallow of me I was happy to see her suffering as she could barely do a single sit up she was so fat. The end
#45 bcplayaz on 11.29.17 at 9:37 pm
Garth
Can you or another blog dog explain in simple terms what is the easiest way to purchase bitcoin…:
Sure: Go here: coinbase.com
Use your credit card.
I love volatility. That’s how money is made. Not for everyone though.
#47 Millennial905er
Should China be our role model? — Garth
Apparently you think China should be our role model because you seem to support the idea of China having unregulated access to Canada’s housing stock.
And what incentive does China have to change if countries like Canada place no conditions on them for access to our housing market? Think about that for a moment.
#17 Sideshow Rob on 11.29.17 at 8:00 pm
Your summary is incorrect leaving your conclusion to be flawed.
I fully support the idea of banning non-residents to own real-estate in parts of the city. This should have been done a decade ago. I don’t give a whit if my paid off place depreciates some. At the rate it has been going here in Vancouver, the next generation doesn’t have a prayer of getting a start in the city closer than Surrey-Langley (without getting oodles from the bank of mom and dad). In my view gov’t needs to focus on its own citizens rather than the hordes of speculators from overseas who have driven up prices and turned Vancouver into a big Monopoly board. The SFU study of 1.5 years ago
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/the-ethical-case-for-taxing-foreign-home-buyers/article34690709/
is still on point today.
A little government intervention is sometimes called for; as I said before it does not mean we will all be standing in long food lines next year, with this dreaded “socialism”, waiting to buy our daily rations of beets and turnips.
Good read…
“How Canadians can walk away from their homes”
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/heres-how-canadians-could-walk-away-from-their-homes-if-house-prices-fall/
#35 Figmund Sreud on 11.29.17 at 8:57 pm
That video with Roger Ver reminded me a lot of a meeting I attended back in the early 70s where a bunch of people were being convinced to invest in one of the many pyramid schemes that had infested the country back then. Lots of people going to lose lots of money.
#49 spoke too soon… on 11.29.17 at 10:01 pm
bitcoin reclaims 10,400
govt have no idea how to control this guy. borderless. a tax-evaders dream…..
————————————————————–
GWT thought he was unstoppable too but he was stopped and spent a few years in jail. Nice guy though.
Bring it on Mayor Robertson! :)
T2 please get rid of him. You are not going to survive this.
—-
How long will T2 be a PM? What will he do after to make money? He is no lawyer or business owner.
How long will he need someone who can competently (maximum guaranteed tax avoidance) handle his trust fund?
Garth – I know you love the drama… ;-)
It’s probably best that Vancouver pass the stupid rules. Not because the foreign hordes are buying up all the property but because the locals will have their crutch kicked out from under them.
While I did mistime the wave (I truly thought people would be rational), I am more fortunate than Evan as Mrs. Waiting has a lot of patience and is happy renting a house that would cost more than double to buy (just based on mortgage payments).
The reckoning is finally in process. I feel for the buyers of the past few years…
Hasn’t this blog spent years telling us that foreigners have a negligible impact, even in Vancouver? You seem to want it both ways. Deny upside immigration act while magnifying downside.
And China must be the most xenophobic place in the planet as it doesn’t allow any foreign ownership of any kind.
Careful with all the anti Chinese comments guys…
Garth will threaten to shut down his blog again!
Damn straight. The racist theme disgusts me. – Garth
Pay attention to #24 Caleb Landry, especially Garth.
Could not state it in better terms!!!!
Re: #10
When I sell my bitcoin it takes about an hour to transfer from my wallet to an exchange (I use Quadrigacx). Then about 3 seconds to sell the bitcoin for CAD on the exchange.
But it takes 5 business days for a wire transfer from Quadrigacx to my bank account.
If you are looking for fast transactions, use Ethereum. A transactions takes about 30 seconds and costs 10 times less than bitcoin.
“Of course, BC was the first jurisdiction to pass a xenophobic, anti-Chinese 15% surtax on real estate purchases by offshore buyers.”
Xenophobic or not, it’s fair in my opinion. It should be retroactive to 1996, as well.
My parents arrived in Canada in 1983. They started a business, which eventually grew to 3 stores and employed over 60 people by 1999. They have paid well over $2 million in various types of tax (income, corporate, GST, prop tax) over the past 30 years. I am grateful to be their kid.
Then I look at some others I know who grew up in my hood. They are the children of astronaut families, where the father lives in Hong Kong or Taiwan (in the case of the ppl I know). Their moms don’t work in Canada, the father doesn’t pay income tax in Canada, but the kids get the same education and benefits as other taxpayer families. Their families’ monetary contribution to Canadian society is very little, but their benefits are disproportionately huge.
This is not fair at all and should be discouraged.
The North Korea situation is dire. There’s no way the U.S. is going to let Kim Jong-Un have a nuclear missile that can hit the U.S. Kim Jong-Un killed his uncle and half-brother. He also tried to kill his nephew who was in Red China earlier this year but failed. That’s his family. Do you think he has the best interests of the North Korean people in mind? In the next six months either Kim gets overthrown through internal revolution or the U.S. destroys his regime. DEFCON 2.
—
#246 AGuyInVancouver on 11.29.17 at 3:08 pm
…
Garth, have a look at the Vancouver Empty Homes Tax policy by the City of Vancouver. It’s draconian. Vancouver might have it’s city hall burned down.
http://vancouver.ca/home-property-development/empty-homes-enforcement-penalties.aspx
False declarations
False property status declarations will result in fines of up to $10,000 per day of the continuing offense, in addition to payment of the tax.
_ _ _
Ask Vancouverites and you’ll find the majority don’t think that tax goes far enough. And that proposed ban on foreign buyers will find a very receptive audience.
>I don’t know why anyone would be so desirous of such a heavy-handed government. Does a fine of this magnitude have any historical precedent in any Canadian municipality? If it doesn’t then the Vancouver City Council has given themselves legal powers without precedent in Canadian municipal history.
Is this then any different from the government kicking down your door to throw you out and give your place to other people for the social welfare? Is this then the pinnacle of democracy then when individual rights are trampled by the mob?
The future of Vancouver is wealth destruction. Nobody is forced to live there so why do people complain about a lack of affordability? Envy?
For your information I wrote earlier that I was a free-market guy and the Canadian housing bubbles were going to self-correct due to market forces.
Less foreign buyers=less demand (until they figure out better ways to circumvent the regulations; tax or ownership restrictions based on residency status).
No chance that mayor moonbeam restricts home buying for only those living/working here. It’s all smoke and mirrors for votes before the election.
His west coast, granola eating, race card using demagoguery is legend.
#63 Howard on 11.29.17 at 11:14 pm
Hasn’t this blog spent years telling us that foreigners have a negligible impact, even in Vancouver? You seem to want it both ways. Deny upside immigration act while magnifying downside.
And China must be the most xenophobic place in the planet as it doesn’t allow any foreign ownership of any kind.
——————————
Should be « deny upside impact… »
Autocorrect…
Forbidding foreign purchase of residential real estate is not an attack on diversity or multiculturalism in Vancouver. Locals of all backgrounds deserve the ability to afford housing. Once one is a landed immigrant or citizen you are no longer a foreigner. Canada admitted 320,000 immigrants last year who all would have the ability to purchase residential real estate – Hardly a xenphobic policy directed at one particular nationality.
Insanity:
http://www.shuchatgroup.com/blog.mobi/the-complete-list-of-min-3br-2-bth-apartments-in-the-lower-mainland-concrete-900k
—–
Check out the strata fees.
@#33 Calgary vs. Ottawa
I’ve lived in both cities and I would suggest Calgary any day. Nicer scenery, easier to get around by car, way more outdoor activities since Banff/Canmore is only an hour or so away. I found the people WAY nicer in Calgary too.
Ottawa is a sick and arrogant city filled with lazy government workers who are all closet Liberal supporters
In the poker room at the flaming. T2 name came up. Even Californans think he’s a tool.
When the most liberal loonatic people think our pm is an idiot, Lord help you all.
I’ve escaped. Last night in Vegas, tomorrow toe dip in the Pacific Ocean. Flip flops on.
Cowboy boots so over rated unless your second home in in belfountan.
So happy to escape communism.
Off topic.
Just found out that Germany has an Ambassador in North Korea.
Donald does not like it.
Mutti is in control.m
Just some stories to share.
When bitcoin was in its infancy in 2009.
My son’s friends had mined thousands of bitcoins with a laptop. Sold 3000 of them at a $1 and said that was easy and never looked back. They would now be worth over $30,000,000.
A another friend had bought a pizza at that time for 27500 bitcoin no kidding. That would be worth almost $300,000,000.
These are all true stories when no one would imagine that Bitcoin would be worth anything.
Kicking foreigners in the stones will do nothing to assist you. — Garth
————-
I cannot agree. Foreigners are the ultimate greater fools in our collective imaginations. Making Canadians believe that Canadian real estate is unattractive to foreign buyers would have double the impact of any stress test.
“#70 Sixtyfourk on 11.29.17 at 11:27 pm
Re: #10
When I sell my bitcoin it takes about an hour to transfer from my wallet to an exchange (I use Quadrigacx). Then about 3 seconds to sell the bitcoin for CAD on the exchange.”
But it takes 5 business days for a wire transfer from Quadrigacx to my bank account.”
I’m experiencing this in reverse (wiring CAD to my kraken account). Five business days and counting. And I had to go into the branch in person and pay $30 got the privilege of using this anachronistic system. Want to track the wire? That will cost an extra $35.
Banks should be afraid of Bitcoins. Very afraid.
As I said before, the best way to curb real estate demand is to increase property tax while reducing income tax. This way, the working middle class people pay nothing extra but the speculators pay a lot more.
Why the government doesn’t do this?
#52 Calgary versus Ottawa
Well that is not even worth arguing about. Go west. Why would you want to live in Ontario? Grab some fresh air and discover the west. You are very close to BC and it’s magnificent vistas. And Alberta, for all it’s faults, beats Ontario hands down. The prairies are not quasi police states. You are actually relatively free to do as you like without police and bureaucrats breathing down your neck. Want to go to the states? Head into Montana, Idaho, Washington, etc. Beautiful. People leave you alone. Can’t say that for upstate New York. You want lakes? Ever been to the northern half of Saskatchewan? Nothing but lakes and forest. Don’t get me started. I live in the Yukon where most of the people on this blog have never been and that is great. Because it leaves it just the way it should be. Alaska and northern BC are incredible too (neighbors that we visit all the time).
DELETED
Pink Pumpkin Update.
This one sold in early November after a year on the market.
As you can see by my notes ,they were already asking 90k less than what they paid for it ,plus expenses and a couple of percent for opportunity cost and you’re up to around the 180 mark.
Hopefully, for their sake they managed to limit the damage.
I will present it when the ink is dry or a realtor on here can save me a step and tell me what it went for now.
Haven’t had a reply for a while.
Come out,come out , wherever you are…
M43BC
Sold on November 7th 2017
9844 Ashwood Drive, Richmond paid . 1.38 asking 1.29
Nov 16:$1,398,000
Jun 13: $1,368,000
Change: – 30000.00 -2%
https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/9844-ashwood-drive
https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=9844%20Ashwood%20Drive,%20Richmond&filter=1
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1V1VITg==
Thanks Garth.
#68 BK
Damn straight. The racist theme disgusts me. – Garth
Look, I was just as pissed off when the Americans were buying up many lakeshore properties when the loonie was trading at 63 cents in the early millennium. I wanted the government to impose some sort of restrictions.
But here is the catch —– I look, sound, and even smell like an American. I love that country. But that didn’t mean I wanted local homes sold to highest outside bidder.
The perception of racism is in your head not ours. We want local homes for local people. Nothing more complicated than that.
This one is for Happy Housing Crash Everyone!
https://twitter.com/yolocapmgmt/status/936045815973294080
Trading cryptocoin w borrowed money.
What could possibly go wrong?
Rusian Roulette with a 9mm was too tame?
Most $5M houses will not rent for anything close to $20k per month in Vancouver. $20K per month is unheard in YVR yet there are many $5M plus houses for rent. A $5M house in YVR is just an average shack. The going rental rate is about $5K per month.
A perfect example below of a $5M house renting for $5K per month. I think we could use more of these on the rental market rather than sitting vacant.
https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/d/5000-5br-4500sqft-whole-house/6341119519.html
Now that beer, manliness, and who ows beer to who is mentioned.
For some time now, I’ve been convincing (tyring to convince) two of my coworkers to make craft beer, they were not interested and reluctant at first,
then they did it. So long story short got my two cases-3 delivered today.
I just could not keep this to my self, I have to share it with you dogs, (IHCTD9 will give me tap on a shoulder, and say good job), hand made craft beer 12 ounces bottle, at costs of 0.88¢, and no sin tax, unit cost would be lower, but unfortunately due to time constraints Master Much was axed to help botteling…
I know, now many of you right now are like, wow 88¢, thats great, and wondering does it get better than that, and I can assure you that gets much better, smell, taste, texture.
So let’s start from begining, having dude electrician, who in his spare time is Master Brewer Extraordinaire to make us 2 cases-3 each, of beer is priceles, all cudos to him.
Absolutely all of 480sq-ft of car garage is repurposed to make this bach of craft beer, carefully hand selected ingridients, home depot 5 galon pails, nothing was left to chance. Lean principles of manufacturing was applied, safe/caution/danger zone was clearly marked on a floor, only autorized personel was alowed to akses brewery shop floor. Recycling and composting bins marked, filling and caping station instolled, and snowmobils, atv-s tools and toys were pushed to corner, to make space so; barely, hoops, water and yeast can do its magic. Master brewer extraordinare, pampered a bach deily buy checking on it, and there is rumor that, renewable generation, wiring methods for solar photovoltaic systems, buliten 64-4, was red a loud daily.
Beer
Poured agresivly, clear bronze/copper color, with lots of bublles and big white head that stick around. Looks smell and taste like beauty in frost covered chilled glass.
On a nose, smell is electrifing, with some notes of floral hoops. Taste starts with forward slight hint of hoppy bitterness and finishes with hint of malty bite.
To sumarize it, this beer blows out of the water, all my beers in cold room!
Are we too xenophobic about being up in arms when a foreign company (especially a state owned company) attempts to buy control of one of our resource firms? The whole country should not be for sale, and quality of life cannot be measured by how much crap you can buy at the dollar store thanks to trade. Quality of life is about shelter, health, and happiness, and hope for our children. Garth, your values don’t align with mine and I would not vote for you in your previous life. I like your blog for entertainment mostly, but enough with calling some reasonable solutions xenophobic!
Well I never thought that any Canadian govt at any level would have the balls to put Canadian family interests above foreign interests. Well done Vancouver. Let’s see if you actually legislate and enforce it.
And Garth some of these blog dogs are right. One cannot argue that foreign money is small change and then be afraid of what these new property regulations will do to the market.
Well, well, somebody is going to do something to stop the mass of in migration into B.C. Places are all finally going to become available for the great unwashed & unrecognized.
We’re going to do this like the commies? Give every resident now in Vancouver a special residency permit. Thats it! After that no schools,medical, housing,transportation.community centres free showers for non permit holders. Don’t get caught sneaking around the seawall or heaven forbid crashing at Belkin House. You’ll be in the boxcar on the railway to the Great Hudson Bay Archipelago via Churchill Express. Uncomfortable after your kidneys get worked over by Vancouver’s Finest,in their famous, just implemented, retro elevator ride to holding tanks.
Who else is is targeted against? — Garth
Gee! really! The TAX is blind. No one knows who the off-shore buyers are or where they come from. No one is keeping records.
Seems to me that the politicians know that the 2% check will kill the market. But that doesn’t play into their “foreigners are to blame” rhetoric.
After all, telling local people they are stupid and have overborrowed isn’t a vote winner.
So they’re doing this so they can “blame” foreigners when it crashes .. and not hurt their re-election chances
#72 Long-Time Lurker – “For your information I wrote earlier that I was a free-market guy and the Canadian housing bubbles were going to self-correct due to market forces.”
Was it the “free market” that increased immigration to 300,000 immigrants per year? Was it the “free market” that increased amortizations from 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 years? Was it the “free market” that allowed zero down payment and cash-back schemes? Was it the “free market” that set up a wealthy investors “come on in” scheme?
Was it the “free market” that stepped in and bought up the mortgages from the banks after the 2008 crisis – to the tune of $125 billion – literally bailing out the banks and keeping house prices elevated?
Was it the “free market” that kept interest rates down when they would have shot to the moon after the 2008 crisis?
There’s no free market. This whole sorry affair has been engineered and manufactured by the government, at the insistence of the real estate lobby and other vested interests.
#47 Millennial905er on 11.29.17 at 9:48 pm
Should China be our role model? — Garth
——————————————–
Why not?
It seems, according to this blog, that China, its culture, and every one of its citizens, are beyond reproach. They are perfect.
So why can’t we learn something from them?
Canadian houses for Canadians first.
“Damn straight. The racist theme disgusts me. – Garth”
Oh, come on, Garth! If it were a bunch of filthy rich Swedes, Russians or Brazilians, people would still be just as upset.
This whole “racism” card sure has come in handy, though, hasn’t it? If you dare complain, why, that must mean you’re complaining about Asians. You’re quickly labelled a “racist” and you slink off with your tail between your legs. That’s not working any more.
“Should China be our role model? – Garth”
And if Dodo birds had modeled their behavior on the crow, they’d still be alive today. They didn’t, and so they’re dead.
Look, fair is fair, in balance of trade and in buying up foreign property. If you want to restrict our exports into your market, then we’re going to restrict your exports into our market. If you want to restrict our ability to buy your property, then we’re going to restrict your ability…..well, you get the point.
Nothing to do with racism. Just intelligence.
#33 Calgary vs Ottawa
“…which one would you recommend based on your experiences considering that Ottawa seems to have better value in the RE market but Calgary has greater outdoors recreation?”
——————————————————————-
Ottawa.
You can always fly out to Calgary and have some fun in the mountains every now and again. When you live in Calgary, and the rockies are in your backyard, you end up taking them for granted, and enjoying them far less than you thought you would have. Besides, Albertans are rednecks at heart, so you need to think about how you would fit in culturally.
Western Europeans would have an easier time melding into society in Ottawa.
Calgary, despite its recent growth, is still a one horse town. It has a relatively compact downtown area, but beyond that, it’s a sprawling mess of spaghetti roads with a piss-poor infrastructure. Suburban mall oblivion.
Ottawa approximates big city life – a quasi cosmopolitan environment – with the conveniences and warmth of a smaller community. It has all the amenities you would need, plus great restaurants, bars, an amazing bike path network, and more.
You have better access to regularly scheduled flights to get to anywhere you need to go from Ottawa. Calgary is still somewhat isolated. The world runs on Eastern Standard Time.
Winters are brutally cold for several weeks though. You’ll have to buy snow tires. (Then again, if you want to have recreational mountain fun in the Rockies in the winter, you’ll need to get tire chains.)
Ottawa’s your best bet in the long run.
#15 Ace Goodheart on 11.29.17 at 7:56 pm
“https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/andrew-scheer-calls-for-finance-minister-bill-morneaus-resignation/article37126471/
T2 needs to get rid of this guy like right now. He doesn’t know what he’s dealing with here. This is the problem I originally noted with T2. He’s a nice guy, probably totally fun to party with and an amazing person,….”
Agreed.
As for T2, just the character traits one would expect from a privileged, mollycoddled and highly connected trust fund baby. Suckled and raised on the elixir of “fun” and nary a day that saw the least amount of disappointment, deprivation or frustration. Being a “fun guy” is a slam dunk.
“Totally fun to party with”, could speak somewhat to people skills, but doesn’t always bear out with the little annoyances of life such as wanting your question directed to the finance minister as opposed to the grand poobah of silly socks himself. After all, “you’ve got an opportunity to chat with the Prime Minister”.
Its interesting.
The resort town of Whistler has alway had an accomodation shortage.
30% of the massive log cabin “homes” are owned by Americans, rich out of province Canucks, etc. and they sit empty 11 months of the year.
Locals( if they’re lucky) own or rent the few legal suites in Whisler , the rest? illegal suites in Whistler, Pemberton, Squamish or better yet…they sleep in closets, garages, and “squats'( my personal fave was a friend who was happy to “rent” a tub to sleep in).
Always been an issue.
Now that its happening in Vancouver on a city wide scale and THOUSANDS of people cant find an affordable place to rent let alone own…….enough is enough.
The politicans have kicked this can down the road for as long as they can and now they are forced to make a decision.
Who hasnt been keeping verifiable stats on sales?
Who has allowed the rumours and inuendo to build?
Who has pumped the real estate industry to this point with rumours?
The Real Estate industry?
The media?
The govt?
Personally I think all three.
And this is the result .
An angry mob of public opinion that believes NOTHING that is publicly stated anymore.
Well dont govt.
Repeatedly wash your hands of tough decisions and do your financial backers bidding
The pitchforks and torches are out and knee jerk legislation will only make an outraged public want even more draconian laws.
Politically correct milksops……..meet the mob.
#94 Fishman – please don’t ever change….
Many socialists I have seen spend their whole lives waiting for the government to make their life better, and to get ‘free stuff’.
But each time the taxes go up, somewhere between when the tax is remitted, and when the tax was supposed to go to disadvantaged people like them, the money accidentally ends up in a political insiders bank account.
Meanwhile for a tiny few who see through the indoctrination, they focus on developing their own knowledge and skills. And then as they have growing ability to create value for other people, they attain actual power through negotiating power, instead of hoping for pity.
Then if a city offers a poor deal of low pay and high cost of living, they can simply take their knowledge and skills elsewhere.
#99 backwardsevolution on 11.30.17 at 4:00 am
“Damn straight. The racist theme disgusts me. – Garth”
Oh, come on, Garth! If it were a bunch of filthy rich Swedes, Russians or Brazilians, people would still be just as upset.
This whole “racism” card sure has come in handy, though, hasn’t it? If you dare complain, why, that must mean you’re complaining about Asians. You’re quickly labelled a “racist” and you slink off with your tail between your legs. That’s not working any more.
————————————-
T2 didn’t get the memo.
He’s now playing the Islamophobia card against anyone who thinks ISIS terrorists should be in prison. The moron too thick to realize that it is he who is insulting Islam by equating it with ISIS.
Re: #91 NoName on 11.30.17 at 1:20 am
“I just could not keep this to my self, I have to share it with you dogs, (IHCTD9 will give me tap on a shoulder, and say good job), hand made craft beer 12 ounces bottle, at costs of 0.88¢, and no sin tax, unit cost would be lower, but unfortunately due to time constraints Master Much was axed to help botteling”
Been doing this myself for years. My set up is dead simple. I make my own malt extract in a mash tun which is basically an old coleman cooler with a false bottom and the spigot removed and replaced with a stainless tap. 66.67 degrees mash in, confirm temp, wait an hour and you have the finest malt extract on the planet. Wayyyyyyy better than the corn mix that the big brewers use. Yes you can get starch from corn. No you should never use corn in your mash. Sheesh. And they charge $50.00 a case for this crap.
I can make 65 bottles of high quality beer for $16.00. So that is 25 cents per beer. My stuff is way better than the junk the beer store sells you.
Re: #98 Howard on 11.30.17 at 3:58 am
“Canadian houses for Canadians first.”
Isn’t this populism?
RE: Bitcoin: as more of the whales cash out, this crypto is going to reveal its inherent and unsolvable flaws. It’s transaction speed is simply too slow. Up until recently this was not a problem, as most bitcoin is held by a very few people. As these folks cash out, the coin is released onto the market and bought up by millions of individuals and then the problems start.
The only way to make bitcoin work for the masses is to have a central bitcoin bank that issues fiat against bitcoin value. That way you don’t need to actually do each transaction through the blockchain.
Of course if you do that, then you completely negate the purpose of bitcoin, which was to get rid of centralization.
If you are seriously into cryptos have a look at etherum and litecoin, they have fast transaction speeds. Zcash is another interesting one.
Good morning
Thought I would share this website
https://www.myrealtycheck.ca/
#91 NoName on 11.30.17 at 1:20 am
Now that beer, manliness, and who ows beer to who is mentioned.
For some time now, I’ve been convincing (tyring to convince) two of my coworkers to make craft beer, they were not interested and reluctant at first,
then they did it. So long story short got my two cases-3 delivered today.
I just could not keep this to my self, I have to share it with you dogs, (IHCTD9 will give me tap on a shoulder, and say good job), hand made craft beer 12 ounces bottle, at costs of 0.88¢, and no sin tax, unit cost would be lower, but unfortunately due to time constraints Master Much was axed to help botteling…
________________________
Good job! (ha!). Home Brew runs about $140.00 for 50 litres out here, and I love the stuff. There is so much variety, and so smooth and hoppy. The absence of preservatives is noticeable in the taste, such a warm flavour compared to the Beer Store stuff.
A guy down the road makes Cider out of his Garage, very good stuff as well (and no tax).
Enjoy the top quality brews for low prices while you can, I’m sure the Libs will be along to **** it up for everyone soon enough.
Local speculation is insane.
I’m seeing so many people in my age cohort (“young professional” early millennials in 30s) buying pre-constructions – often multiple ones. I know of one young couple that have a house + 2 investment condos + 2 pre-construction condos (everything but one of the condos bought within the last year in Toronto). Another couple can’t afford to move out of their mother’s basement, but has 1 investment condo and 1 pre-sale (both in Vancouver within the last 2 years). And countless others that have 1 condo + 1 investment condo/pre-sale.
I have some idea of their finances and they don’t have the ability to service these places. Many of these people are still struggling to pay off their student loans and definitely don’t max out their RRSPs and TFSAs. It’s absolutely insane. I assume that you don’t need approval for a mortgage to buy many of these pre-constructions? When I talk to these people, they are planning to “flip” them and make tons of money. They have no idea at all that they are taking on ridiculous amounts of risk – highly leveraged positions in a single asset that is extremely overvalued by any fundamental measure of value that you can possibly think of. I’m scared that they are on the road to bankruptcy. But people are so crazy about this real estate holy grail that they can’t think straight and nothing I say will change that.
I really believe that it’s the local middle and upper middle class speculators that are driving the housing bubble (or at least this final leg in it). High-income young professionals in their 30s who can easily access bank loans they can’t actually afford to buy “investment” properties hoping to make it big. And Boomers with houses who take loans (HELOCs) out of the equity of their houses in order to buy “investment” properties to fund the retirements they never saved for.
Loonie faces a shocking plunge if NAFTA doesn’t get a rewrite
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/loonie-faces-shocking-plunge-nafta-doesnt-get-rewrite-215544645.html
Quite:
‘Analysts have warned that failure to rewrite the North American Free Trade Agreement is apt to drive the Canadian dollar downwards to the mid- to low-60 cents against the greenback. But it could also rewrite Canada’s economic approach.’
It faces even more shocking plunge if it get’s rewritten for benefits of USA.
Read: In the fifties (0.5x)
And even more shocking plunge if it get’s cancelled.
Read: In the forties (0.4x)
That against an overall depreciating (euro, Yen) USD!
Bill, nice investment in that french villa, man.
A bet that T2 trust fund is fully invested in loonie shorts.
Looks like high end real estate starting to collapse. Wonder if this included Van and Tor:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/real_estate/high-end-real-estate-in-connecticut-starting-to-crash/
“The high-end real estate boom is now turning sour. We are looking at property values declining in London, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, New York, and even Miami. The shift will now turn toward MOVABLE assets as capital departs from the fixed asset class.”
#33 Calgary vs. Ottawa on 11.29.17 at 8:50 pm
For me it would be Ottawa since it’s closer to the places where I would vacation – Europe and NYC, sometimes Chicago/Boston/DC. I couldn’t care less about the West Coast and even less about Asia, so proximity to those locales from Calgary means nothing to me.
Calgary is a nice town but still very suburban in nature with endless sprawl. Terrible urban planning even by Canadian standards. Coming from Western Europe, I don’t think you’d enjoy it unless you’re really looking for a change.
Weather-wise Ottawa has hotter, more consistent summers but gets WAY more snow in winter, more than any other large city in Canada. Calgary is sunnier and semi-arid – not much rain or snow to speak of. Winters are generally easier than Ottawa but last longer.
Hey Garth –
Reading your remarks about what the BC socialists are planning to do about real estate brings to mind things I’ve learnt over the years:
– People aren’t very bright
– Politicians are all craven fools
– Socialism will never die
It is very sad to see Marxism now tarted up as Neomarxism on college campuses, rather than being banished to ‘the dustbin of history’. Every generation has to learn anew, I suppose, that socialism really doesn’t work, but today’s millennials know everything and that’s why they’ll get screwed royally by the coming RE correction.
As for me – I don’t care. No debts, live small, live simply. Regardless of what happens, those snowflakes owe me a pension, so they better keep paying.
#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.30.17 at 8:16 am Indeed Mr. Fartz.. I am thinking certain members from all three should be strung up for treason .. I can appreciate your name .. When I was a kid back in the 60s I worked at Keno Hill mines , Calumet camp in the Yukon as a cage tender.. Some Monday mornings I would have 8 Yugoslavs ( oops! is that racist ,, naw,, they were white so should be ok ) in the cage and between garlic breath and beer farts it would burn my eyes.. The cage had lots of air flow as well.. Keep up the good work Mr. Fartz !!
Question: What if you are a Canadian, have been all your life and paid hundreds of thousands of $ in taxes in Canada, own a home in Vancouver? Why are we considered to be “foreign investors” and shat upon like we do not pay Canadian taxes etc. Seems unfair to me that even a Canadian from a different province cannot own a property in a different province without being penialized.
But what about Evan… think he will every come back Big G????
Surprise, surprise.
The wild tax cheat is now formally accused by the Tory leader of insider trading, in 2015 he sold 10 millions worth of his shares prior to a bill that he promoted and that sunk that company shares with 500 k in value, so he saved 500 k in that insider trading.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eS5H2RQd8DU
Consider, this is the government that rules you that releases the CRA dogs after the small businesses and doctors.
How many skeletons has this man in his Closet?
Resign BM!
And note: T2 has confidence in this man?
How many more days should we be penalized by having to be ruled by and listen to such idiots?
With the slide in the loonie, and with the decline of the prices in absolute numbers the real homes value decline even further.
As I said, homes in real terms – stable currencies, real measure of wealth will never be worth more than they were in 2016-2017 time frame.
Imagine that – small, cold, noisy glass condos or wood particle board shack houses in godless poor – working class, 2 hours one way daily commute to work (4 hours total per day, if lucky to have a job) overtaxed GTA with crappy weather and huge property tax/maintenance and poorly paid jobs is worth more than a castle with many hectares of land in France with beautiful weather and rich history!
I posted at least 10 links with such castles here few days ago.
Idiocy at it’s best.
Mental institution. Just look at the parliament, the PM and the finance guy (and his villa, hey, he has villa in France!, controversial legislation that benefits his company, failure to put his assets in blind fund and potential suspicious disposal of his shares) and you will get a very bleak picture.
Sad story for such a great country (at least used to be).
Amen.
Non retirement, higher taxes, no jobs and idiotic policies trying to steal whatever is left of YOUR MONEY.
Mind these RRSP funds folks, mind them. In 5-10 years who knows what kind of theft will be invented to help you dispose of them ‘For the benefits of Canadians and the middle class’.
Can you imagine the future with the same people ruling us 5-10 years from now ?
Interesting read by Chrystia Freeland – the person negotiating NAFTA on our behalf.
https://www.amazon.com/Plutocrats-New-Golden-Chrystia-Freeland-ebook/dp/B009MYASDE
She describes the elite of her own party!
Garth, I agree with you that house horny buyers are a big part of the problem. But there is so much that can’t be explained by Canadian’s lack of ability to do 3rd grade math. You say that the data proves that foreign ownership is a non-factor. The problem is that good data doesn’t exist, Canada simply doesn’t collect it, so the data that is inevitably released is garbage. So what do we know? We know that declared taxable incomes and housing prices are inversely correlated in Vancouver. Port Moody has the highest taxable income in the GVR. Richmond has an income to house price ratio over 28. There are only a number of scenarios that explain this. Local speculators are very likely taking advantage that our tax laws make it very difficult to enforce the principal residence capital gain exemption. Foreign buyers are very likely another large contributing factor since they can report income in another tax jurisdiction. Both would have to be happening at a very large scale to distort the natural relationship to this extent. I agree foreign ownership is less problematic since there is no law against owning property outside of your tax residency, (we Canadians do it all the time as snowbirds) but it does bring up big ethical questions. It simply isn’t right for Port Moody to pay the highest taxes to support Richmond millionaires whether they are Canadian, Chinese, or space aliens. There are many practical solutions, but the government won’t even require the reporting necessary to understand the issue. I’d love to see you write a post on the tax angle that is outlined well in this study.
http://siteeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/High-House-Prices-and-Low-Incomes-April-2017.pdf
I think you could help get rid of a lot of the racist emotions by bringing light to the point that this is a taxation policy issue first and foremost.
A previous Financial Secretary in Hong Kong (equivalent to Finance Minister) had to resign because he bought a car before a tax change and saved a couple thousand bucks.. HE BOUGHT A CAR AND HAD TO RESIGN !!! how does Bill get away with all this ?
#96 Blobby “Seems to me that the politicians know that the 2% check will kill the market. But that doesn’t play into their “foreigners are to blame” rhetoric.After all, telling local people they are stupid and have overborrowed isn’t a vote winner.So they’re doing this so they can “blame” foreigners when it crashes .. and not hurt their re-election chances
—————————————————————-
Partially true. The visionistas in control @ Vancouver City Hall know very well that none of their idiotic (dog whistle) proposals are actionable, unless they get the Bolsheviks in Victoria on board, and of course the feds. (who are about to head over to China to give Li the keys to the car)
Here Locally, The Mayor and his eroding band of socialist warriors (down to a 1 seat majority) are gonna get kicked in the nads next year electorally. Cant rely on gobs of developer $$$ this election, spigot is off. Rezone is their only play to keep the Ponzi going
Their (Vision) single minded agenda, fueled by arrogance, is gonna bite the delusional spendthrifts hard. The electorate is seething. They appear clueless.
#107 John on 11.30.17 at 8:52 am
Good morning
Thought I would share this website
https://www.myrealtycheck.ca/
—-
that website tell me thay i run AB but i dont… why is that?
1% of bitcoiners controll 88% of the bitcoins.
That leaves 99% fending for the 12% of bitcoins left. The irony of bitcoin becoming a commodity that is controlled by the few and can screw the masses is not lost on me.
Housing in Van does need to become affordable to the ‘average’ family. And the tax is not anti-Chinese, it is anti-foreigner, which is a huge difference.
#119 Stan Brooks on 11.30.17 at 11:27 am
…Mental institution… Can you imagine the future with the same people ruling us 5-10 years from now ?
==================================
Jordan Peterson on how Hitler was even more evil than you think:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMqQBLZwRIE
1:40 – “If you can’t figure out what someone is doing, or why, look at the outcome, and infer the motivation. If it produces mayhem, perhaps it was aiming at mayhem.”
#113 20th Century Limited on 11.30.17 at 9:46 am
——————-
Socialism: is buying you a highly educated, safer society by looking after the poor, great medical care, emergency crew on standby to save your life, paved roads, clean water.
#78 Smoking Man on 11.30.17 at 12:09 am
In the poker room at the flaming. T2 name came up. Even Californans think he’s a tool.
When the most liberal loonatic people think our pm is an idiot, Lord help you all.
I’ve escaped. Last night in Vegas, tomorrow toe dip in the Pacific Ocean. Flip flops on.
Cowboy boots so over rated unless your second home in in belfountan.
So happy to escape communism
…………………………………………………………………..
Dam you were funny last night on Pscope. Why did you diss Garth? Be careful when you dip the boys as the water is cold, even down in San Diego. We will be looking forward to that pic.
https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/spac.html
#117 Stan Brooks on 11.30.17 at 10:22 am
Surprise, surprise.
The wild tax cheat is now formally accused by the Tory leader of insider trading, in 2015 he sold 10 millions worth of his shares prior to a bill that he promoted and that sunk that company shares with 500 k in value, so he saved 500 k in that insider trading.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eS5H2RQd8DU
Consider, this is the government that rules you that releases the CRA dogs after the small businesses and doctors.
How many skeletons has this man in his Closet?
Resign BM!
____________________________________________
If Trudeau can’t muster the southern brass required to boot Morneau (the bully who is daring opposition members to accuse him “out in the hall” so he can send his lawyers after them.), then he’s going to regret it.
Morneau is starting to “look” a lot like Harper did…
Now we all get to see what Trudeau is made of – there is no easy obvious winning answer to the Morneau question.
#127 Bottoms_Up on 11.30.17 at 12:11 pm
#113 20th Century Limited on 11.30.17 at 9:46 am
——————-
Socialism: is buying you a highly educated, safer society by looking after the poor, great medical care, emergency crew on standby to save your life, paved roads, clean water.
____________________________________
Actually, Socialism is a bloated bureaucracy going totally broke attempting to achieve all those things.
Then they price fix, make excuses, inflate their currency away, default on their foreign debt, and run massive austerity programs until they get the boot. Sometimes instead of stepping down, Socialists prefer to send out the Police or Army to bust some heads, since they know what’s best for the people and love them so much.
They caught the cheater:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F72RqkqfcCY
and the liebarals are arrogant and treat with legal actions!
It is mind blowing!
———————–
#122 Wayne Lam on 11.30.17 at 11:57 am
A previous Financial Secretary in Hong Kong (equivalent to Finance Minister) had to resign because he bought a car before a tax change and saved a couple thousand bucks.. HE BOUGHT A CAR AND HAD TO RESIGN !!! how does Bill get away with all this ?
OMG.
This guy is our financial minister!
Uf this prov es true, he should be in jail!
————————
If it proves true and it most likely is as both BM and T2 refuse to answer the simple question:
Did BM sold the shares in question on that day?
Then it is the end of the lieberals, both BM and T2.
T2 is that stupid to defend a potential criminal!
and BM is going to jail,
#122 Wayne Lam on 11.30.17 at 11:57 am
A previous Financial Secretary in Hong Kong (equivalent to Finance Minister) had to resign because he bought a car before a tax change and saved a couple thousand bucks.. HE BOUGHT A CAR AND HAD TO RESIGN !!! how does Bill get away with all this ?
____________________________________________
Because Bill’s Boss is seriously lacking in the non-ferrous metals department.
I’ve got a 15 lb orange tabby who hauls around more brass daily than our entire Federal Liberal Caucus combined.
Maybe Trudeau just needs some time in a safe place where he can cry for a while (hey, it worked for Freeland), and take a few “so-sad” PM selfies. Then Canadians will feel so guilty, that they’ll just leave poor Bill alone.
#106 Ace Goodheart,
What you say about Bitcoin highlights the fundamental misunderstanding that most people have. Currency has a completely different role than assets. Currency’s primary function is to facilitate transactions. That’s what Bitcoin was invented for. Neither Bitcoin or fiat currencies have fundamental value.
Assets are things that have value like land, houses, consumable goods and companies that create goods or sell services, etc. That’s not to say assets can’t be over valued for periods of time, but they’re always worth something.
The issue is when people think currency is worth what they paid for it. It’s only worth the price the next person will pay for it. When you are simply using it to conduct a transaction, you only need it to retain it’s price for the length of time required to finish your transaction. When you’re treating it like a buy and hold asset then you’re simply speculating on human behavior. When too many people do it, then it’s a pyramid scheme.
Now fiat currencies are backed and manipulated by governments, but they usually fulfill the goal of keeping the value of the currency stable over time.
Bitcoin’s goal is the opposite of that. It aims to keep the number of Bitcoins stable over time (and eventually a finite supply). Thus when people rush in, the price must go up. But the value really hasn’t changed … it’s still 0.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcboTJctKt4
BM told the ethics commissioner that he sold 680 000 shares of his company worth 10 million CAD in 2015.
At 10.25 a.m. on November 30th 2015 somebody sold 680 000 shares of his company worth 10 million CAD 1 week prior to the introduced by BM legislation of tax increases that drove the stock market and his company down by 5 %.
So the seller saved 500 k in the process.
The opposition asks BM if he sold those shares on that day and whether that was coincidence.
BM does not answer, is very evasive, look atthe circus on the link above.
He should have resigned much earlier. Seeing him potentially in jail will be a form of justice.
So glad I am in BC and not QB.
Stark raving mad, those QB fundamentalists:
Regulating the greetings in a store.
F off, lunatic law makers,
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/quebec-lawmakers-pass-motion-calling-on-store-clerks-to-use-bonjour-greeting-1.3701305
Dow surges past 24k as tax bill hopes stoke markets
https://www.bnn.ca/dow-surges-past-24k-as-tax-bill-hopes-stoke-markets-1.930262
Dear Garth, I know we don’t see eye-to-eye on some things, but I would appreciate at least a Deleted to bolster my cred.
Today on the Biz Rumour Net a pretty coquette at Grit Capital (via the Bahamas) explained the spectrum of Bitcoin investing opportunities. Some of it seemed almost appealing, but I fear she has too much sand in her oyster. In response, Alan Turing rolled over in his grave, ….. and he wasn’t being playful.
Van Mayor Gregor Robertson finally admits the role of foreign capital into Van’s RE market…full article below.
”It hit us like a ton of bricks”
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/dan-fumano-global-money-hit-vancouver-real-estate-like-a-ton-of-bricks-robertson-says
How to think about Bitcoin:
We use what’s called a “protocol” to communicate with each other over the Internet. Its called HTTP.
There is now a new protocol to transfer value over the Internet. Its called Bitcoin.
It is similar to HTTP except you can own a share of it. This share has value, which increases as the volume of Bitcoin transactions increases, but more importantly, the share becomes a good store of value as the Bitcoin network expands.
This one is for “FELIX” the cat lover!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5131945/Dogs-really-smarter-cats-research-suggests.html
@ # 127 Bottoms_Up,
That’s great news! The next task is for socialists to figure out how to pay for it all. Something a crusty old conservative reactionary like myself might suggest they should have done first. I’m old fashioned.
Today will be an emotional day…yet somewhat of a relief.
As an executor, I dealt with the sale of the “one owner “family home for over 50 years. I turn over the keys today.
It has been an ENORMOUS task , very draining both physically and mentally.
The price? Suffice it to say that since the original owners death, the home had DOUBLED in price over 2 years, as the area is zoned from SF to higher density.
BTW a lot of realtor haters here..ours was top notch professional all the way and got us THE best price.
Through this exercise we were lucky to be referred to one of the top estate lawyers in BC, as well as a CA who does estates(not that common).
Of course, there will be a capital gains hit, (approx $150,000)on top of the rip-off probate fee($20,000) due at the time probate is granted.
NOTE:Rather galling how our gov’t pillages estates…on what basis? because they can?!?
=================================
One intriguing thing is a developer assembled 7 adjacent lots 2 years ago. As is the norm, they can apply to the local gov’t for higher density if certain trade offs are made. In this case, the City told the developer they can build 60 units AS LONG AS THEY BUILD A RENTAL SUITE IN EACH Strata UNIT. The suite will be approx. 30% of the total unit area.
This is ridiculous, as not everyone is ready willing or able to be a landlord, and pay for a rental unit on top of their main residence. Parking will be a disaster, as the area still has ditches and grass boulevards..as well as potential of 60+ renters ..all you need is a few bad ones and the whole strata is up in arms. Anyway, the project simply sits as empty lots…save for one ex owner renting back his house..with questions did they invest asap after they sold
#98 Howard on 11.30.17 at 3:58 am
It seems, according to this blog, that China, its culture, and every one of its citizens, are beyond reproach. They are perfect.
So why can’t we learn something from them?
Canadian houses for Canadians first.
_ _ _
Well said. Garth continues his unfortunate habit of labelling everyone who wants to stop the flow of offshore capital into Canadian real estate a racist. It is simply not true. We’ve told him we have friends and family who are of Chinese descent. And yet the unfounded accusations continue. Garth, listen to those of us who are here, on the ground in Vancouver.
You want some examples? How about these perfectly legitimate Canadian businessmen who are drivig gup land prices by overpaying for building sites, just because they have access to daddy’s capital from Shanghai:
“..Some critics in the development world have said the new offshore buyers – who were noticed in recent years as they outbid locals in the fierce fight for properties along Cambie Street – are pushing up the price of land and buying just as a way to park money, with no plans to develop even though the city is desperate for housing…”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-wave-of-developers-hit-the-vancouver-scene/article26246319/
How about this developer who cancelled his project, blaming city hall, although every other nearby project went ahead. Pundits make the case they just want to remarket the lot at a higher price:
“…Over a third of pre-sale condo buyers at the cancelled Langara West project in the Cambie Street corridor are challenging the developer’s offer to return their deposits, plus interest and an additional 50 per cent of their downpayment, in exchange for a release..”
http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/pre-sale-condo-buyers-at-cancelled-langara-west-project-contest-developers-offer
How many houses does this one fraudster touch:
“…Just over 10 years ago, Sun and Jiang were in the kitchen of Sun’s home talking about how rich they would get by flipping Vancouver property. Sun nodded at his employee and patted him on the shoulder…”
http://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/2-am-web-embargo-mysterious-wheeler-dealer-is-at-centre-of-a-web-of-b-c-real-estate-deals
You undermine the premise of this blog by denying one of the main factors inflating Vancouver’s bubble.
“Business In Vancouver” recently posted an article on Vancouver Real Estate re land prices are becoming “alarming”.
The article states that in Metro Vancouver, 30,000 units under construction, with 120,000 in various stages in the pipeline.
According to Michael Geller:
Land costs ( $500 sq.ft)are exceeding building costs($315-350 sq.ft ), and by the time all the soft costs (fees, permits, amenity contributions, legal costs commissions etc.)are factored in, builder will need to sell at $1400 sq.ft to just get bank financing, let along profit.
Also noted are some condo owners are selling their condos for LESS than pre-sale price.
I think the above info, moreso the 150,000 condos in the pipeline makes it clear the RE party is nearly over..
Re Bitcoin “Don’t like volatility? Shun this sucker.”
Garth on this I think we have common ground. Coins made by the RCM are good enough. Better something in the pocket than something in cyberspace.
#142 AGuyInVancouver
Interesting Van Sun link re: mysterious wheeler dealer…
The photo is of the home previously owned by Richmond’s late developer Milan Illich (Progressive Contracting)
The home was built in the early 1990’s and created quite the stir in Richmond as it was the largest and most expensive house in Richmond at the time.
A few years ago I came across an article on line on how Metro Vancouver developers had carved up the Lower Mainland into territories,much like Mafia Dons established turf. This way they would not compete against each other, simply develop within their own turf.
Illich’s methodology was to secure land overtime with assemblies, mostly for SFH, his last hurrah was the controversial Terra Nova development, this effectively used up any large parcels left in Richmond. Then…..Duly noted was the rise of the condo, hi rise and townhouse market.
#142 AGuyInVancouver
Wow. Scary stuff. But I’m not surprised. Shanghai properties are crazy expensive but the turnover is super low. Looks like Vancouver is destined for the same fate as buyers bring the same model there. Extreme prices with low turnover.
As for this blog, it’s a tragedy that it has denied the damaging reality on the ground in your city. I hope Vancouverites can organize and put pressure on your politicians to enact policies that are respectful to the city and the intelligence of it’s citizens.
#109 BoomerKid
You need to tell the people you know they should offset their risk in RE by buying into some Bitcoin…surely $10K in BTC now will be able to pay for their houses in a year or so (that is what numerous posters on this blog think…)
In our marriage, a house was the least of our concerns. Sex was first, then fine food, starting businesses, innovating. Live, then pay cash for a house in Mayberry, sit on the porch with Barney and Thelma Lou. I remember the nesting faze, leased a farm so the kids could take eggs to kindergarten. Pick your locale based on schools. Good schools=low crime, better community involvement, even if you’re not a parent.
We’ve never stopped dating and hold four seasons worth of vacation property outside city limits. There are options beyond society’s plan to herd people into boxes. I think if one is tied to a specific geography, then buy, but be prepared for +/- 30% longterm. Buying a house as an investment when market can’t be factored is definitely a $ risk, but maybe it’s a crucial third wheel to these individuals’ life path. I didn’t worry as much about price as I did about water on my first ranch.
Also, keep a spray bottle handy in case one spouse starts to fixate on anything.
Dear Host, you can delete that comment ^ I just made. I was reading Evan’s story from yesterday, the Desperation article, and drove off the road.
Re: #138 Manfred Steyn on 11.30.17 at 2:16 pm
“How to think about Bitcoin:
We use what’s called a “protocol” to communicate with each other over the Internet. Its called HTTP.
There is now a new protocol to transfer value over the Internet. Its called Bitcoin.
It is similar to HTTP except you can own a share of it. This share has value, which increases as the volume of Bitcoin transactions increases, but more importantly, the share becomes a good store of value as the Bitcoin network expands.”
This is sort of correct. The new protocol could be more accurately referred to as block chain. Bitcoin is one of over a thousand crypto coins that use block chain to transfer value over the internet.
There are new crypto coins invented every day.
Block chain technology is open source. Which means anyone can (and does) copy it and improve it. Bitcoin is a very early version of this technology. As such, it is not very useful for actually transferring value, as it has a very slow transaction speed of 7 transactions per second. It also uses a large amount of electricity to generate each transaction. So it is really more of a dinosaur of block chain than a modern protocol. It is the first of many, many crypto currencies, and it is the least advanced and least useful of the bunch.
Block chain relies on many different computers all storing and verifying that coins exist and verifying who owns the coins. In this way it decentralizes value exchange. The value record is not contained in one central spot, it is contained on many different computers, and verified on a consensus basis.
Likely, if block chain technology is ever going to be used for internet payments, it is going to have to be made much faster. Bitcoin is the slowest.
Re: #133 Josh in Calgary on 11.30.17 at 1:02 pm
“Bitcoin’s goal is the opposite of that. It aims to keep the number of Bitcoins stable over time (and eventually a finite supply). Thus when people rush in, the price must go up. But the value really hasn’t changed … it’s still 0.”
I would completely agree with you on that.
My concern with bitcoin is really two things. Firstly, transaction speed. You cannot use bitcoin as an internet payment system. It is simply too slow. Bitcoin works as a payment system only because bitcoin is not actually changing hands when payments are made with it. The bitcoin is being held by the bitcoin exchanges. The value is being transferred from one bitcoin exchange account to another, with no bitcoin actually going anywhere. If it is necessary to actually amend the block chain to move bitcoin on the block chain, then the system will collapse. The transaction speed is simply too slow to allow this.
The second issue is the whales. They hold most of the bitcoins out there. Yesterday, one of them unloaded a lot of bitcoin onto Bitfinex. It crashed the exchange, trashed the value of bitcoin by about $2000.00 US and resulted in a massive amount of back log for transaction processing. This was one bitcoin dump, and a small amount of total coin. The price still has not recovered, nor has the block chain caught up yet (still processing).
This single bitcoin dump also trashed the value of most of the other crypto coins including Ether and Litecoin. This was one dump. Average value loss was over 20%.
This is a technology in its infancy and it moves like an inconsolable toddler. There is no way of predicting what it will do. Another whale dump could completely sewer the market as people rush for the exists. Yesterday people lost hundreds of thousands of dollars in about ten minutes. They have not regained their losses as of today.
There is no logical reason to own this stuff right now. Someday there might be, but it’ll be a different world and a different coin. This is just “bigger idiot” at this point, with no one being able to predict what is going to happen.
Re: #150 Ace Goodheart
Yes, I agree, right now Bitcoin is too slow to manage global commerce. However, these are very early days in the technology.
The Lightning Network is an improvement to the Bitcoin tech which will improve its transactions per seconds immensely. And this is likely just the first of many innovations.
Bitcoin has first mover advantage so benefits from the Network Effect. There may be some Betamax versions of Blockchain out there but the Bitcoin VHS version has over 56% market dominance and growing.
#139 Manfred Steyn:
Your post makes no sense.
@Morrey: Then perhaps consider taking a few nightschool classes at your local community college?
Despite all the accolades, Bitcoin is very clunky technology. It’s primary flaw is lack of scalability. There are currently 54,000+ unconfirmed transaction in the network and the backlog is growing every second. Good luck in getting out when you need to.
#155 Manfred Steyn
your response is ignorant
PS the original response was to do with your lack of logic.