Up, up, up

Tuesday rush hour, at the foot of Bay Street outside Union Station, downtown Toronto.

_____________________________________________________________

Around the time of Y2K, which most Millennials never heard of, investors went goey for tech. Nortel exploded (before it imploded). The NASDAQ surged daily. Kids with skateboards and cool URLs went public with profitless companies and made millions. Then it all blew up.

The tech bubble bust. Science and technology mutual funds – then an absolute rage – lost 80% of their value. Investors who had gone all-in, believing dot-coms and the Internet would become the backbone of modern life, were crushed. Panic selling in late 200 and early 2001. Then came Nine Eleven to finish things off.

Now we know the techies were right. Seventeen years ago it was inconceivable every single person on the sidewalk would have a smart phone, that Uber would replace taxis, AirBnB supplant hotels, landlines become relics, Russia use Facebook to throw the US election or something online called Amazon be one of the biggest companies in the world. And, hey, let’s not forget about yesterday’s blockchain bubble blog.

So what did people do wrong in the first tech-fueled equity romp when they got all sauced up with hormones and hype? Two things. They engaged in massive speculation, bidding up the value of companies with visionary ideas, epic burn rates and no earnings (did someone just say ‘Tesla’?). Investors were swept along on vision and promise, not profits and dividends. They paid a massive price. They will again.

Second, they lacked balance. Thinking diversification was for people dumber than them and only old ladies bought bonds or blue chips, they passionately put 100% of their investment bucks into one thing (did I just hear ‘Bitcoin’?). When the herd was moving in the same direction, it was euphoric and thrilling. When reality arrived, so did the losses.

All this seems relevant at a time when tech issues have been propelling stock markets to new highs. Happened again Tuesday. The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all soared. Even the limp old TSX has been catching up, and also sits at a pinnacle. As I mentioned days ago, the same has taken place in Japan, Europe and with emerging markets.

The obvious question: another bubble? A rerun of 2000, or even 2008?

Last time I said it was irrational to expect a 20% market correction just because an index had reached a new summit. Comparisons with Y2K or the credit crisis (or 1929, 0r 1987) are meaningless without context. This time loads of tech-based companies are making money. Look at Apple ($45 billion profit in three months) or Google ($22 billion profit). Amazon is trashing department stores and just bought a supermarket chain. Practical, real-life, broad-based applications of devices, products and services using online platforms have created wildly successful corporations. Share prices have soared. Investors collect dividends. These are valid businesses.

So the Dow looks vertical mostly because companies are making money. Corporate profits are advancing double-digits. There is more to come.

The advance will also come on the shoulders of a humungous US corporate tax cut (35% down to 20%), full employment in the US, and the beating-down of anti-global populism in Europe. The world economy is growing at 3%. Bankers worried about deflation two years ago are now raising interest rates to quell inflation. Never again in the life of you or your children will there be 2% long-term mortgages.

This is a world in which you should expect growth to continue, and be reflected in financial assets. But as markets move higher, spurred by entrepreneurs and execs who have figured out how to make passion also make money, there’ll be corrections, dips, shocks and surprises. The higher they go, the more violent the moves.

So we seemed to have figured out the tech thing (with some notable bubble companies and commodities). Now you need to understand balance. It’s a hard lesson to grasp when everything’s going up. Not when they fall.

The point of a 60/40 portfolio is to have two-fifths of your money in stuff that’s less volatile, pays a predictable income stream or is negatively correlated to the more excitable equity markets. No, 40% should not go into bonds – only some. The best choice right now (for a portfolio large enough to have several positions) is 10% in short government bonds, 6% in corporates, 3% each in high-yield and provincial debt, plus a little cash and about 15% in preferred shares. The prefs turn out a 4% tax-advantaged dividend plus increase in capital value along with rates. The bonds stifle volatility and have a history of rising when stocks are falling. Of course, do all this through ETFs, to spread the risk.

So far this year a balanced, diversified portfolio is ahead about 9.5%. Tesla stock is up 66%. Bitcoin is ahead 700%.

Sexy isn’t everything. Look at me.

140 comments ↓

#1 MSM-Free Zone on 11.21.17 at 6:53 pm

Never underestimate the power of American lobbyists to put their own interests ahead of society’s in general, particularly in the U.S., where corporate lobbying has become the country’s equivalent to pancreatic cancer.

All you freedum-luvin’, pickup-drivin’, bumpstock-totin’, guvernment-hatin’, tobacco-chewin, orangatun-votin’ banjo-pickers might want to step away from your iPhone’s repeat episode of Duck Dynasty and try Googling something called “Internet Neutrality”. Yeah, I know there are a lot of syllables but try and keep up, because the Orange Orangutan (yeah, the same guy who tried to unsuccessfully gut your health care after you crash your ATV) is about to take Internet Neutrality away from your Personal Electronic Device

“….Net neutrality is a broad principle that prohibits broadband providers from giving or selling access to speedy internet, essentially a “fast lane,” to certain internet services over others. The rule was implemented by the Obama administration in 2015……The net neutrality rules, aimed at giving consumers equal access to web content, also forbade broadband providers from charging consumers more for certain content, a practice called “paid prioritization.”

“….Net Neutrality is foundational to competitive, free enterprise, entrepreneurial market entry — and reaching global customers. You don’t have to be a big shot to compete. Anyone with a great idea, a unique perspective to share, and a compelling vision can get in the game…”

“…FCC chief Ajit Pai, a Republican appointed to chairman of the Federal Communications Commission by President Donald Trump, on Tuesday unveiled plans to repeal a landmark 2015 order that barred internet service providers from blocking or slowing down consumer access to web content, and said the U.S. regulator will prevent states and cities from adopting similar protections. The preemption is most likely to handcuff Democratic-governed states and localities that could have considered their own plans to protect consumers’ equal access to internet content…”

“…The new order will reclassify internet providers as “information services” rather than a “telecommunication service,” which means the FCC has significantly less authority to oversee the web….”

“…The FCC also will vote to eliminate the “internet conduct standard,” which gives the FCC far-reaching discretion to prohibit any internet service provider practice that it believes violates a long list of factors and sought to address future discriminatory conduct….”

“…In July, a group representing major technology firms including Google parent Alphabet Inc. and Facebook Inc had urged Pai to drop plans to rescind the rules….”

“…A federal appeals court last year upheld the legality of the net neutrality regulations, which were challenged in a lawsuit led by a telecommunications industry trade association….”

“…The FCC’s planned action represents a victory for internet service providers, including AT&T Inc, Comcast Corp and Verizon Communications Inc, which had urged the FCC to revoke the rules….”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/net-neutrality-1.4412194

#2 TRUMP on 11.21.17 at 6:58 pm

SEXY IS EVERYTHING !!!!!!!!

Look at what Baby-face Bill Morneau got away with.

Salute to the C.I.C. (Cheater-In-Chief)

#3 Parksville Prankster on 11.21.17 at 6:58 pm

…not so long ago there was talk of also including a small slice of real return bonds in the ‘safe’ portion of a balanced portfolio. I guess they’re no longer as desirable as previous? :)

#4 Eyestrain on 11.21.17 at 6:59 pm

For the first time in the history of humanity a monkey has learned to type complete paragraphs.
See #’s117,…..164,165 …178 GeniusMonkey
Utter nonsense, but proof of concept.

Seriously.
Computer scientists can’t even figure out how to get Real Money to people (see Phoenix). But let’s not throw out the baby with the bathwater though, maybe the blockchain IS the future. There are many ways to securely encrypt data. Blackberry has done it successfully for years, but was it a good investment ? Does somebody hold the patent on the blockchain ? 0 for two.
Next!
Could we hear the pitches from the orangutans please?

Garth, did somebody put a cryptolock on your Sin Bin via the Intel wormhole? Your most excellent site is usually devoid of such pumpers. Are you being held hostage, against your will?

#5 Ex Pat canuck on 11.21.17 at 6:59 pm

Big changes in the stock markets a coming…and not many will be prepared when it thumps down…70% cash 30% junior miners sounds about right to buffer the storm when it hits. It’ll be an event when she goes! Check out Jesse Felder’s blog for more info…

#6 akashic record on 11.21.17 at 7:01 pm

Bitcoin does not care about Jamie Dimon.

Jamie Dimon caves may want to sell “fraud”, “worst than tulip bulbs” Bitcoin.

To paraphrase Garth: “What does this tell about JD and JPMorgan?”

#7 BobC on 11.21.17 at 7:01 pm

I’m up 7% with dividends but got in late. I run scared every day even thought the movements in the bottom line are small. I hope your right but everywhere you look is an article about the coming crash.
Investing is hard on the nerves.
I trust you

#8 Doug t on 11.21.17 at 7:03 pm

It’s true the drops can and will be BIG – when Bitcoin drops to $600 or less it’s time to buy

RATM

#9 acdel on 11.21.17 at 7:04 pm

Excellent post!

As mentioned in your post we do need to balance our portfolios and recognize what is up and coming. Yes, there will be some hurt out there like the dotcom bubble, but these new ideas, technologies are not to be ignored. It will take time to sort it out but there are “HUGE” opportunities out there.

Just imagine cleaning up the real-estate scam to where everything is documented digitally and a buyer can actually purchase a property based on what it is worth not what they are being told its worth, it will still happen but to a lesser degree.

Personally, I have learned so much from your yesterdays post, thank you.

#10 Alan Dee on 11.21.17 at 7:05 pm

What has been the better investment since March 2008 when Greater Fool started up?

$25K (or $50K) down on a $500K house and paying down the mortgage, or $50K put into the mythical balanced portfolio and paying rent?

(Say for the 10 largest urban areas in Canada, i.e. approx half the population …)

It’s not a race. It’s about balance. — Garth

#11 Robert B on 11.21.17 at 7:08 pm

Funny how a year can make.

When Trump was elected the DOW was at 18,000 level. Over the year its made its way to the 23,000 level. But no one except “MA” was saying to buy equities. No one listened to him even though he had explained why this move would happen.

Now the DOW at 23000 everyone is saying buy buy buy. What happened to convince people that its time to buy?

Once the Bond market had peaked and rates started to rise where do you think the money goes ?

Good luck everyone , this will be an equity market never seen before…..Can you say Vertical?

#12 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 11.21.17 at 7:09 pm

Dow Stock Index Forecast Rise to 260,000 by 2032

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33703.html

#13 Howfar? on 11.21.17 at 7:13 pm

As it spreads through BC…

Vancouver might be cooling at the top end, but not in this town…not yet.

+426K rise in 1 year, 11 months.

529 Christleton Av. Kelowna

Year built: 1950

Sold December 1, 2015 – 376K

Sold May 19, 2016 – 660K

Just listed for – 812K

In the listing it says “financial data available upon request”

#14 technical analysis? on 11.21.17 at 7:16 pm

these things are all happening because central banks are suppressing interest rates world wide. the same thing happened in 1999 when Greenspan panicked and cut rates when Long Term Capital collapsed. the same thing (abnormally low rates for a long time) caused the housing bubble that eventually collapsed markets in 2007/8. central bank interference in free markets is the problem. always has been. interest rates should be at 4-5% today. why are they at 1%? what do you expect stocks to do? there is no choice but to buy stocks.

as for your portfolio of 60/40, for the average wuss that has no knowledge of trading, it’s fine. or someone who doesn’t have time to devote.

#15 Nonplused on 11.21.17 at 7:20 pm

I will contend, again, that the US is not at “full employment” or anywhere near it, because people not in the workforce is at record highs. Sure, some of those people are retired or stay at home moms, but the cohort of millennials in the basement and working age individuals in the category is, again, at record highs. They are only in the classification because they haven’t worked in a long time, not because they don’t want to.

So what will happen going forward is that the unemployment headline number will stabilize, because there are always some unemployed people, and as the economy grows those not in the workforce numbers will start to get better as these individuals put down the game controller, crawl out of the basement and into the sunlight and head out and get a job.

Growth? Yes. Full employment? Not for at least a few years yet.

Interest rates are still going to rise modestly though, I agree with that.

#16 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 11.21.17 at 7:21 pm

I attended a live seminar on the markets today given by a ForEX champ. He did touch upon Bitcoin, I’d like to share what he said:

“Bitcoin: Speculators are confusing the asset (bitcoin) with the process (blockchain), it is the process that is valuable, not the asset.”

Bitcoins, Ethereum, Ripple (and 100 others) will come and go, the process is what MAYBE valuable.

Ie. They are buying into the wrong part of the chain.

#17 Prophecy on 11.21.17 at 7:22 pm

Ouch! You saw me today preaching the word! How did you know my identity?
BTW,Why did you delete my comment about the future of Toronto? It wasn’t anti-immigrant, just that you can’t pack a city like sardines and expect it to become a utopia, except for the ruling Liberals.

#18 jess on 11.21.17 at 7:37 pm

Uber is coming clean about its coverup of a year-old hacking attack that stole personal information about more than 57 million of the beleaguered ride-hailing service’s customers and drivers.

The revelation Tuesday marks the latest stain on Uber’s reputation.

Uber’s current CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi, criticized the company’s handling of the data theft in a blog post that said there’s no evidence the stolen information has been misused.

The heist took the names, email addresses and phone numbers of 57 million riders. The thieves also nabbed the driver’s license numbers of 600,000 Uber drivers.

#19 acdel on 11.21.17 at 7:39 pm

#16 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD

100% agree, Blockchain will change everything, never mind the cryptos unless you know what you are doing!

#20 Bonds ? on 11.21.17 at 7:42 pm

No thank you . I’d rather piss the money away

100% equities ….and enjoy the ride. We haven’t even had a 5% correction ytd – off the charts year . 2018 likely a different story

#21 Re., eyestrain on 11.21.17 at 7:46 pm

Great . Not taking his meds again

Good grief

#22 AGuyInVancouver on 11.21.17 at 7:47 pm

..They engaged in massive speculation, bidding up the value of companies with visionary ideas, epic burn rates and no earnings (did someone just say ‘Tesla’?)..-Garth
_ _ _
I’d hesitate to put Tesla in that category. They do have a product, a great one, in the Model S. It’s singlehandedly driven the BMW 5 and 7 series off Vancouver streets, along with MB’s E-Class. Why pay gas taxes when the Model S will do everything they do for city drivers and let you pass on paying gas taxes? Where Tesla is struggling is bringing that formula down to the masses with the Model 3.

#23 Terry on 11.21.17 at 7:53 pm

“So the Dow looks vertical mostly because companies are making money. Corporate profits are advancing double-digits. There is more to come.”

I agree completely with you on this Garth. Just because indices are hitting record highs doesn’t mean they can’t continue to go higher! U.S. tax reform, corporate profits surging and the U.S economy firing on all cylinders will keep this bull market charging higher and higher. There are a lot of distractions and drama going on in Washington which makes for great entertainment while I continue keeping busy investing for dividends and a positive return. Ka-ching!

#24 jess on 11.21.17 at 7:55 pm

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: November 20, 2017

Last Wednesday, Richard Cordray, the Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), announced he would be stepping down from his post at the end of this month. Cordray is the former Attorney General of Ohio and there are rumors he may make a run for Governor there.

https://theintercept.com/2017/11/18/wall-street-wants-to-kill-the-agency-protecting-americans-from-financial-scams/
================================
Trump Bank Regulator Wants to Merge Taxpayer-Backstopped Banks With Corporate Conglomerates

http://wallstreetonparade.com/2017/11/trump-bank-regulator-wants-to-merge-taxpayer-backstopped-banks-with-corporate-conglomerates

the treasury laughing stock read why

http://wallstreetonparade.com/2017/11/u-s-treasury-becomes-a-laughing-stock/

#25 Jim RR on 11.21.17 at 7:57 pm

Garth,

Because every boom ends in a bust (one of your favorite sayings regarding RE), it stands to reason that at some point the markets will tank again in the future. There will be another crash at some point.

When that crash happens, how do you re-adjust your 60/40 portfolio? Does the 60 percent equity growth position gets shifted more into the bonds side?

If there’s a recession or economic reversal, markets will reflect that. The best defence is a balanced, diversified portfolio. It saved your butt in 2008-9. — Garth

#26 Deplorable aliens on 11.21.17 at 7:58 pm

That’s gotta be smoker dude with the sign… the end times are coming

#27 vanreal on 11.21.17 at 8:00 pm

Hmm Interesting according to Garth houses are overvalued and will significantly correct but the stock market which is also at an all time high is just fine. Could it be that he has a vested interest in not predicting a stock market correction??

Stocks are (as detailed) based on corporate performance. Real estate prices in Van and the GTA are based on duct tape, hormones, faerie poop and hope. — Garth

#28 BlogDog123 on 11.21.17 at 8:01 pm

Hey Garth, it’s time for one of your famous surveys. Ask everyone where they (truthfully) have their ETFs (don’t name specifics, just 10% RoW Equities, 10% cdn bonds, cash sitting doing nothing, etc…) and in which accounts. Get one of your blog-dog calculators to present all the stats…

#29 Russians? on 11.21.17 at 8:05 pm

If Russians ever did anything about US elections, they just disclosed the illegalities that the Clintons did. No information was proven to be false.
But no one is going to investigate this because “some animals are more equal than others”.

#30 Yanniel on 11.21.17 at 8:06 pm

Can someone provide examples of provincial debt and high yield ETFs, please? Thanks.

#31 akashic record on 11.21.17 at 8:06 pm

#22 AGuyInVancouver on 11.21.17 at 7:47 pm

..They engaged in massive speculation, bidding up the value of companies with visionary ideas, epic burn rates and no earnings (did someone just say ‘Tesla’?)..-Garth
_ _ _

I’d hesitate to put Tesla in that category. They do have a product, a great one, in the Model S. It’s singlehandedly driven the BMW 5 and 7 series off Vancouver streets, along with MB’s E-Class. Why pay gas taxes when the Model S will do everything they do for city drivers and let you pass on paying gas taxes? Where Tesla is struggling is bringing that formula down to the masses with the Model 3.

Agreed.

Elon Musk’s history as entrepreneur is solid, starting with PayPal.

Without Musk’s Tesla there would be no push for EVs in the car industry, we would see much less push for battery development aimed for EVs.

With SpaceX he managed to break into one of the most closed space\military industry “from the street”, only because he built a product that the industry thought impossible to do.

I rather have Musk “burn money” on his “toys” than banks with shady derivative products that most likely don’t bring much benefit to mankind.

#32 For those about to flop... on 11.21.17 at 8:16 pm

Dolce Vita 3:40 am
Yet again, more unexplainable changes, well to me, in Detached prices for YVR at Zolo.ca:

Oct. 21, 2017:
https://i.imgur.com/u7YTcSh.jpg

Nov. 21, 2017:
https://i.imgur.com/qMXIJha.jpg

1 month apart. Number changes all over the map.

What are they making it up, as they go along?

//////////////////////////////////

Hey Dolce ,I have tried to explain this to you a couple of times and I will have one more crack at the title.

3011 Point Grey Rd sold in early October.

It was a 2 bedroom bulldozer bought for land value in what some people consider to be the most prestigious block of land in Vancouver.

That house sold for 13.5 million and with detached two bedrooms in that timeframe captured by zolo ,there were only 5 other sales so this house distorted the numbers.

In your second link ,that house has now passed through and although still expensive it has gone back down considerably. Your second imgur link has it back down to 2 million and I just had a quick look and it is currently at 1.8 after peaking at 4 million during the distortion.

Even 1.8 is still incredibly high but with only another 6sales this month it is easy to manipulate the number again with just one sale.

With only a handful of houses selling in this bracket each month and still higher than average price, I suspect what is happening is developer are picking off the bungalows that are in prime locations or land assembly.

Seen a few of them sold in my area on 41st ave near Oakridge Mall in recent times.

I wrote in a post or two ,there has been a couple of sales of prestigious properties in the last couple of weeks in the 15 million range and I saw one where two went side by side for $20 million.

In your case I believe the culprit to your confusion is in the zolo link I supplied below.

Case closed, your honor…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3011-point-grey-road

#33 Robert B on 11.21.17 at 8:17 pm

#14 technical analysis?

Its not that they are suppressed but rather there has been no growth. Not good.
What happens when rates rise?

#34 Long-Time Lurker on 11.21.17 at 8:17 pm

Yesterday’s comments were more than I ever wanted to know about Bitcoin and then some. I was going to post something more. Not after that.

#35 meh. on 11.21.17 at 8:20 pm

Google and Amazon don’t pay dividends.

Now you know why they don’t have to. — Garth

#36 NoName on 11.21.17 at 8:25 pm

@eyestrain and fartz from other day

Now that monkey is mentioned, more skilled than i…
https://youtu.be/QoCxdGkHJ8Y

#37 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 11.21.17 at 8:26 pm

Swiss-based mega bank UBS, updated its Global Real Estate Bubble Index. The index, looks for cities that experience price climbs that disconnect from fundamentals.

Topping the list this year is Toronto, which the bank believes is the most at risk market in the world, and in fourth place is Vancouver.

https://betterdwelling.com/toronto-tops-ubs-global-real-estate-bubble-index-vancouver-comes-fourth/

#38 Smoking Man on 11.21.17 at 8:34 pm

Ha I saw that guy in the pic today. Wierd is putting it mildly.

#39 GeniusMoney on 11.21.17 at 8:35 pm

To #4 Eyestrain on 11.21.17

“GeniusMonkey” eh? Why revert to ad hominem attacks? C’mon I challenge you to come up with some intelligent and coherent arguments on why Bitcoin and Blockchain tech will not continue to thrive… but that would require you to actually do some research and understand the tech first. Spoiler alert: There are actually quite a few counter arguments which are essentially considered risks. Overall though the upside is much greater in my opinion. Also If you look at my post history you can see that I’ve made very few posts. Only today I made a few more because Bitcoin came up and I saw a lot of incorrect info being posted.

Also yes doznes (hundreds?) of patents exist for various blockchain tech and more are coming down the pipe, but the relevancy of this is limited IMHO. A decentralized token created by anonymous people with no owners doesn’t give a crap about somebody else’s patents. The only people who will care about patents will be corporations using private blockchains to improve the efficiencies of their businesses, as the regulators and authorities (and sueing parties) can reach them. Fortunately, some of the blockhain nerds could forsee the IBM’s of the world launching a pantent parade and already pantented or protected many of the key concepts under GPL or MIT type ‘free’ use licenses.

Also comparing Blackberry encryption to blockchain is like comparing apples and (in your words) orangutans.

Feel free to make coherent posts that contribute to the knowledge and discussions at hand. I will gladly respond in kind.

Cheers
GM

#40 For those about to flop... on 11.21.17 at 8:36 pm

This article would probably be better saved for Friday night but I know there are a few guys on here that like a nightly tipple.

Cheers, Flopper.

M43BC

This Map Shows Which Countries Produce the Most Wine Around the World
In case you haven’t heard, the wine industry is having a bad year thanks to the weather. European production numbers are going to be significantly down, which suggests that the worldwide export market might be headed for a shakeup. What might that look like? We create a new viz to demonstrate the current state of the market.

We got our numbers for 2016 wine exports from the World’s Top Exports, a website that tracks the value of goods moving between countries. Our viz adjusts the size of each continent according to the relative proportion of its wine export market. That’s why North America appears so much smaller than Europe—it produces a mere 5% of the world’s wine exports compared to Europe’s 70%. To make this visualization a bit easier, we also added bubbles corresponding to the size of the market for each country.
As you can quickly see, a few key players dominate the international wine market. France is by far and away the market leader, putting out 28.2% of the world’s exports. Italy comes in second at 19.2% followed by Spain at 9.2%. The fact that these countries have distinct cuisines and cultures centered around winemaking goes a long way to explain their nea -monopoly. Chile and Australia round out the top five wine exporters, sending away 5.7% and 5.3% of the world’s exports, respectively. No other country crosses the 5% threshold. This creates a significant imbalance in the market weighted heavily toward the Europeans. Other countries have a long way to go before they even come close.

But don’t underestimate how much the wine industry might change next year. Business Insideris reporting the worst year for production since 1961. Catastrophic fires recently tore through Napa, devastating several winemakers in California. On the positive side, companies likeBright Cellars are now leveraging big data to create unique taste profiles for their customers, letting you mail order small-batch wines directly to your house. It’s safe to say the market is under significant pressure to change.

With that being said, here’s a list of the top ten wine exporters in the world right now, broken down by the total value of their exports ($ millions) and the percentage of the world’s overall total.

1. France – $9,100 and 28.2%

2. Italy – $6,200 and 19.2%

3. Spain – $3,000 and 9.2%

4. Chile – $1,900 and 5.7%

5. Australia – $1,700 and 5.3%

6. United States – $1,600 and 4.8%

7. New Zealand – $1,100 and 3.5%

8. Germany – $1,000 and 3.2%

9. Argentina – $816.8 and 2.5%

10. Portugal – $804.5 and 2.5%

It’s impossible to say what this list will look like ten years from now, but suffice it to say that European countries can expect other parts of the world to start catching up. Weather patterns can always change, and tech companies might introduce new people to good wine, expanding the market for everyone. In the meantime, let’s raise a glass to the French: à votre santé!

https://howmuch.net/articles/world-map-of-wine-exports-2016

#41 Nick on 11.21.17 at 8:48 pm

Problem is this growth is due to massive increases in debt. Debt just pulls forward demand. When debt hits its limits the growth train is going to come screeching to a halt.

Incorrect. A growing US economy makes debt servicing easier. The train has lots more track. — Garth

#42 Victor V on 11.21.17 at 8:57 pm

85% of Canadians say they ‘need to save more money’: CIBC poll

http://www.bnn.ca/85-of-canadians-say-they-need-to-save-more-money-cibc-poll-1.921592

#43 GeniusMoney on 11.21.17 at 9:05 pm

To #189 Penny Henny on 11.21.17 (from previous thread)

Question: (paraphrase) how does one go about buying blockchain tokens?

There are various ways:
1. If you just want to buy a few dozen or hundred dollars worth to play around with, you can go to localbitcoins.com or localethereum.com. Then you can arrange to meet somebody who is wanting to sell at a local public place (for your safety), and proceed to make a transaction with that person. This is not recommended for any significant amounts because a) your safety could be at risk – you would be meeting a stranger b) these sites charge a premium for the tokens you are buying in part because of the risk of the other person as well as the travel/transaction time they have to spend to sell a relatively small quantity.

2. Sign up for an account on a blockchain exchange. Exchanges like:
a) quadrigacx.com (Canada)
b) bitstamp.com (in Europe)
c) GDAX.com (USA)
d) Coinbase.com (USA) – probably the simplest to get started with if you are not a techie or are not familiar with stock trading/chart reading.

These are good for most people and will require you to provide KYC (Know Your Customer) info, by asking you for personal info like your real name, copy of drivers license and/or passport, picture of yourself etc. The requirements to setup an account are as high if not higher than the info you need to provide to setup a bank account. The more info you provide, the larger the monatary volume of tokens you can send/withdraw from said exchange per day. Once you setup your account, you will need to send dollars/euros into your account via Wire Transfer or some kind of inter-bank transfer or etransfer – each exchange has different options.

NOTE: I am not endorsing any of the above exchanges; however, I have every reason to believe that out of 100+ exchanges globally, these are some of the most trusted – at present.

NOTE2: Nearly every exchange gets hacked, and the crypto currencies of people get stolen. DO NOT LEAVE YOUR TOKENS AT ANY EXCHANGE FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME (you have been warned!).

NOTE3: Different exchanges offer different types of tokens you can buy/sell. Most of these exchanges do not offer 90%+ of all the tokens that exist for trading. For this you need an account at Poloniex (extremely poor customer service if something goes wrong) or Bittrex (a fairly new exchange not yet proven to be highly trustworthy). Alternatively, you can import your tokens into a blockchain wallet like Jaxx or Exodus then use “ShapeShift.io” (built into those apps) to automagically convert one type of token for another… at about a fee base 3 times higher than the other exchanges mentioned above, but will not require you to go through any lengthy sign up times, or provide any personal information.

NOTE4: If an exchange does not require you to go through any KYC process, it is highly likely that this exchange can be used to launder money, at which point it will eventually get shut down and authorities will go through all user accounts and IP logs to identify every user that ever performed a transaction on said exchange (i.e. google btc-e.com exchange FBI shut down).

3. Blockchain Mining – Many geeks get their first crypto tokens by “mining” them with their computers, graphics cards or specially made motherboards that you can buy from China (i.e. Bitmain). I am guessing most people in this forum are not geeks, and I have extensive experience in this area and at present I do not recommend this method unless you are trying to mine some new tokens with GPU cards and are connected to a pool that auto-switches which crypto you mine based on profitability indexes.

4. Futures Trading & ETFs – These are coming in 2018. The CME just announced this for Bitcoin and Ethereum is likely not far behind. This means you do not need to know anything about blockchain, wallets, exchanges etc and just can trade these tokens via derivatives (i.e. ETFs/Futures) which you will soon have access via your standard broker account (i.e. Etrade/Qtrade etc).

5. Dark Pools – If you are a multi-multi-millionaire, you can also google for some dark pool companies that can execute OTC trades for you for large volumes without disrupting the market prices.

6. Stock market venture exchanges – Already, in Canada there are some stocks in blockchain companies that you can buy. Likely this is also the case in the USA. Buying shares in these companies is obviously not buying crypto tokens, but it can provide you with exposure to this market sector.

7. Bitcoin/Ethereum ATMs – https://coinatmradar.com/ can show you where there may be a Bitcoin / Crypto ATM near you. These function very similarily to real ATMs, you put in dollars, and it spits out a QR code with the equivalent value of token(s) you have selected, then you simply scan the QR code with your mobile wallet to transfer the tokens into your crypto wallet and voila. One downside is that some of these ATMs require you to provide finger prints and copies of your drivers license etc (KYC). I’m not too keen on providing finger prints for this, but this is a very fast way to acquire some crypto currency.

8. Decentralized Crypto Exchanges – In #2. Above I described what is essentially a company (similar to a stock broker company like etrade) that performs the function of allowing you to buy/sell dollars for crypto tokens like Bitcoin. A decentralized exchange is essentially a piece of code that you can access via a web browser that allows you to perform the same function but there is no centralized entity that can be hacked, or freeze your account etc. This is a fairly new concept and is still maturing. The interface for these exchanges are primitive and you can’t wire dollars into these, so they are not good for people starting out for the first time. I would leave these for advance use cases where you want to stay in full control of your private keys. These arose because authorities (i.e. FBI) started shutting down exchanges (for good reasons – fraud, money laundering etc) and because centralized exchanges get hacked every single year and people lose their money. I think within 2 years, this will be the primary way most people will be trading crypto tokens – they will be faster, with great interfaces, decentralized and not subject to authorities shutting them down and likewise to hackers breaking into them, and will likely have the lowest fees.

#44 Hiding On the Backstreets on 11.21.17 at 9:08 pm

@#38 GeniusMoney

Great info in your posts the last couple days. It’s too funny (funny pathetic, not funny humorous) reading critical posts from know-nothing blowhards who don’t understand blockchain or cryptos, beaking off on something they can’t comprehend.

#45 GeniusMoney on 11.21.17 at 9:21 pm

To #189 Penny Henny on 11.21.17

I forgot to mention… to understand which are the top 10 Blockchains by market capitalization, you can go to the following sites:

coincap.io
coinmarketcap.com

Note: Do NOT buy “BitConnect” tokens, that is literally a ponzi scheme and you will highly likely eventually lose your money. Also “OneCoin” (not listed) is also a well known Ponzi Scheme. Everything else are legit tokens, with various degrees of risk/reward potential

Here’s a very quick summary of what the top 100 tokens are about. This comparison is not for investment purposes a lot more research should go into each token type before investing, but it can give you a quick overview.

https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/19/100-cryptocurrencies-described-in-4-words-or-less/

#46 acdel on 11.21.17 at 9:28 pm

#39 For those about to flop…

à la santé!

#47 DRew on 11.21.17 at 9:32 pm

what is your fund returning? serious question.

#48 Leo Trollstoy on 11.21.17 at 9:34 pm

Tesla models: S 3 X Y

Musk is a god!

#49 Smoking Man on 11.21.17 at 9:35 pm

The EPA center of true thought can only be found at the bottom of an empty bottle or bourbon or scotch. Been experimenting for years, I have. Which is better for you is the question.

My conclusions are simple if you want the truth, you got to dive deep down into the bottle. But the cost is huge, scars and burn marks on the head will never go away.

Thinking it’s better to be a dumb stupid idiot, don’t ever try to make it as a true writer, too many animals out to eat you., better to have lots of fake friends. Pretend to agree with the group perception of reality than going with the truth.

I can’t do it.

Let the shit show land on my head. I’m not a scared little pussy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvlTJrNJ5lA

#50 NoName on 11.21.17 at 9:36 pm

I AM ALL IN CASH…..

CAN U HEAR THE TREMBLE OF THE CRASH STARTING. I CAN.

#51 NoName on 11.21.17 at 9:42 pm

Now that wine is mentioned

r
Ravenswood Zinfandel (us)
Tedeschi Amarone (it)
Yellow teil [orange bottle sticker] (au)
Plavac (cro) [probably cousin of Rave.. Zin…]

w
Frontera (chille)
Pelee Island Time (ca)
Muscat Ottonel (srb)
13th street vinery st catharines, white wine

and this interesting read

https://www.theguardian.com/global/2016/sep/11/the-great-wine-fraud-a-vintage-swindle

#52 Surging Cdn Economy!! on 11.21.17 at 9:43 pm

If the Canadian economy is “surging” as some headlines say, why won’t Poloz raise rates? (Or why is he so afraid to raise them)?

#53 Dolce Vita on 11.21.17 at 9:46 pm

#31 For those about to flop…

Didn’t see the post, thanks Flop. I mean I looked at those recent numbers and just scratched my head.

What a crazy market to have a few properties distort recent averages, medians, you name it, after 1 month.

Still, the change in 1 year ago data is troubling and cannot vary that much with 2 sets of data, 1 month apart…oh well.

Well, you got most of it explained. Well done, indeed.

#54 Smoking Man on 11.21.17 at 9:50 pm

Missing Nictonite.

Going home soon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sx8d–usWKI

#55 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 11.21.17 at 9:50 pm

We are in the grand Public Wave overall that peaks in 2032. This is the equivalent of the wave that picked the Peak of Rome in 175 AD.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-major-fractal-wave-of-the-economic-confidence-model-2032-95/

#56 Surging Cdn Economy!! on 11.21.17 at 9:51 pm

“Bank of Canada governor says household debt is main factor in keeping interest rate at 1%”

Haha so he is afraid to raise rates because indebted idiots can’t afford it. So what is he going to do? Just keep bs’ing?

#57 Smoking Man on 11.21.17 at 9:53 pm

Goosebumps every time I hear this song. Was on the dance floor with your mom the day I met her my 3 ungrateful kids.

She hasn’t changed in my mind.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id_UYLPSn6U

#58 Dolce Vita on 11.21.17 at 9:54 pm

More specifically, low Beta ETFs for volatility based on various equities and markets.

#59 Smoking Man on 11.21.17 at 9:58 pm

Star Man

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsYp9q3QNaQ

#60 TurnerNation on 11.21.17 at 9:59 pm

We see from above picture, Torontonains wear mainly black clothes – punctuated with the odd beige garment. So world class

#61 NoName on 11.21.17 at 10:01 pm

i’ve seen similar chart other day.

https://twitter.com/TihoBrkan/status/932103357837144065

—-
@fakeNoName
—-

#46 NoName on 11.21.17 at 9:36 pm
I AM ALL IN CASH…..

CAN U HEAR THE TREMBLE OF THE CRASH STARTING. I CAN.

Your comment is awaiting moderation.

when you are so sure why not but inverse leveraged etfs, cash is for chickens.

realNoName

(look what you made me do… [real])
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tmd-ClpJxA

#62 Smoking Man on 11.21.17 at 10:07 pm

DELETED

#63 Ace Goodheart on 11.21.17 at 10:13 pm

RE: Digital currencies and the never ending rise in value (forever and ever).

What is the point of owning a bitcoin (or an Ethereum, or Zcash or any of the other ones)?

You eventually want to use it to buy something, right? That is all it is useful for.

So if that is the case, why all the margin buying and futures trading and all the secrecy? A currency, dated back to its earliest origins, is just a promissory note used to facilitate trade. That is literally all they ever were.

Banking was devised by a genius person who determined that if you gave someone your promissory note to hold for you until you needed it, that person did not have to keep the note, but rather could loan it (or a portion of its value) out to someone else, at interest. That is all banks do today.

So you would have a person who was well known in trading circles, who was trusted and who had a lot of business interests. This person could write notes which were basically that person’s promise to pay a certain value (usually in gold or silver or some form of commodity) upon a certain date. These notes could be traded and could be used as “currency” which would allow trade over long distances. A person could bring goods to a location, obtain a promissory note from a prominent person in another location, and then return the note for value at a future date.

Sooner or later people stopped returning the notes for value and simply used them for trade. That is how currency was born.

So ask yourselves, who are you trusting as the person who guarantees the value of your bitcoin? Satoshi Nakamotoa? mystical Japanese person who might not even exist?

Who is the trusted trader who is guaranteeing the value of your Ethereum?

See, these currencies break down when you start asking questions. Yes they are going up in value right now, but we don’t even know how the value is set. And we have no means of knowing what you can actually buy with them.

Too many questions…..

#64 Smoking Man on 11.21.17 at 10:27 pm

When the give no shit feeling burns itself in your brain is the day you finally make it. Regardless of the tools, you used to get there, Jack, or the influence that talked you out of it.

Put that note on the fridge magnet and think about it.

Nothing else matters.

Dr. Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAGnKpE4NCI

#65 Smoking Man on 11.21.17 at 10:38 pm

#61 Smoking Man on 11.21.17 at 10:07 pm
DELETED

Chicken shit, can’t blame you. They own the millennials via the school system.

They don’t own me. I’m a man.

#66 Smartalox on 11.21.17 at 10:38 pm

@Flopper:

I recently gave up drinking to aid an attempt at lowering my blood pressure, but I raise a virtual glass to you.

L’chaim!

#67 Basil Fawlty on 11.21.17 at 10:49 pm

If stocks are based on corporate performance, why is Amazon trading at 284 X Earnings? Their stock price of $1133 could be described as waiting on a miracle.

#68 rental property math on 11.21.17 at 10:54 pm

#13 Howfar? on 11.21.17 at 7:13 pm
As it spreads through BC…

Vancouver might be cooling at the top end, but not in this town…not yet.

+426K rise in 1 year, 11 months.

529 Christleton Av. Kelowna

Year built: 1950

Sold December 1, 2015 – 376K

Sold May 19, 2016 – 660K

Just listed for – 812K

In the listing it says “financial data available upon request”

———–
The ad also says: **Investor Alert / Rental Property**
Sounds like some kind of profit loss statement. Or it could be detailing the invasion of the HAM

#69 PastThePeak on 11.21.17 at 10:55 pm

Is it like 2000? Not completely. As noted, many of the large tech companies are indeed making money, though if you look a little closer valuations are still high.

Garth brings up Apple, which is a good counterpoint. Apple is massively profitable – the most profitable company on the planet (by far). However, its PE is *BELOW* the S&P500 average (18.5 vs 24.5 ttm). So despite its massive profits, Apple is actually a drag on the market level P/E.

Alphabet (Google) has a PE about 35 as does Facebook. Amazon makes a bit of profit, but has a PE of 290. Netflix PE is almost 200. Tesla as noted as no profit but massive value. As is estimated (in the private startup sphere) Snap and Uber (valued at 70B). Most of these are not going out of business as they are making at least cash flow to cover operations (but not Tesla or other other unicorns at the end).

So lets not kid ourselves that most of these valuations (except Alphabet) are massive and assume outsized profits way in the future. From this basis alone, the market is setup for a pullback at anytime the sentiment decides to shift.

My bigger concern is about the trillions of dollars printed by central banks over the last 8 years, along with the massive government stimulus, and the effects this has had but not seen/understood. The Fed is talking about starting to unwind theirs (as slowly as possible), and other regions are starting to consider it. It will be interesting to see where that goes, and if it can be done without triggering some other calamity in the global financial system.

Not many forecast the 8 or so currency/financial issues of the last 2 decades, so I don’t have much faith that it will be seen before it is felt this time either.

#70 Eyestrain on 11.21.17 at 10:59 pm

#38 GeniusMoney on 11.21.17 at 8:35 pm
To #4 Eyestrain on 11.21.17
“GeniusMonkey” eh? Why revert to ad hominem attacks? 

Me: Because I didn’t think ad simian attacks would be fair.

“C’mon I challenge you to come up with some intelligent and coherent arguments on why Bitcoin and Blockchain tech will not continue to thrive… but that would require you to actually do some research and understand the tech first.”

Me: I got your invite late, but my initial research results……

In 2016, one such experiment, the Ethereum-based DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization), raised an astonishing $200 million USD in just over two months. Participants purchased “DAO tokens” allowing them to vote on smart contract venture capital investments (voting power was proportionate to the number of DAO they were holding). A subsequent hack of project funds proved that the project was launched without proper due diligence, with disastrous consequences.  Regardless, the DAO experiment suggests the blockchain has the potential to usher in “a new paradigm of economic cooperation.”

If the sun comes up tomorrow, I will do more research.
Sleep tight.

#71 n1tro on 11.21.17 at 11:03 pm

#62 Ace Goodheart on 11.21.17 at 10:13 pm
RE: Digital currencies and the never ending rise in value (forever and ever).

What is the point of owning a bitcoin (or an Ethereum, or Zcash or any of the other ones)?

You eventually want to use it to buy something, right? That is all it is useful for.

So if that is the case, why all the margin buying and futures trading and all the secrecy?

+++Same reasons as why currency traders long or short currencies on margin. The news likes to link a significant move in ABC currency to an event posted that day but no one really knows why traders unload or long on said event….

So ask yourselves, who are you trusting as the person who guarantees the value of your bitcoin? Satoshi Nakamotoa? mystical Japanese person who might not even exist?

++++Who/what are you trusting that $1CAD will buy you that can of pop tomorrow? Pure belief in a system that wont go down from one day to the next. How is that different from people who believe in a made up currency versus shiny rocks?

See, these currencies break down when you start asking questions.

++++Agreed, ALL currencies break down when you start asking questions

…..but we don’t even know how the value is set. And we have no means of knowing what you can actually buy with them.
++++++Again…how is any currency set relative to another other than based on a belief that a person can get something somewhere else for a set amount of paper/polymer.

#72 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 11.21.17 at 11:05 pm

House prices are plummeting in Oslo – and it doesn’t bode well for Stockholm

Many business and political leaders in Sweden are worried that a price correction combined with rising interest rates could put thousands of Swedish homeowners under water, and deal a heavy blow to the entire economy.

http://nordic.businessinsider.com/house-prices-are-plummeting-in-oslo–and-it-doesnt-bode-well-for-stockholm-2017-9

#73 morrey on 11.21.17 at 11:11 pm

made over 150K betting on Sun Microsystems, Netscape, and Apple. The first two did eventually evaporate, but i sold my position by then. Apple bought at approx. 15.00 and i still hold my shares! Spilt baby Split! PS I did lose on crooked MCI aka Worldcom.

#74 Pete from St. Cesaire on 11.21.17 at 11:14 pm

….Net Neutrality is foundational to competitive, free enterprise, entrepreneurial market entry — and reaching global customers. You don’t have to be a big shot to compete. Anyone with a great idea, a unique perspective to share, and a compelling vision can get in the game…”
——————————————————————
‘Net Neutrality’ is a colloquialism (like all things named by the government). It’s actually a way of quashing non-mainstream content.

#75 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 11.21.17 at 11:21 pm

Experts predict British house prices could plummet by up to 40 per cent due to Brexit and wage drop

Prof Cheshire told the Mail on Sunday . “I think we are beginning to see signs that correction may be starting.

His warning comes not long after a report by the National Association of Estate Agents found that the number of homes sold for below the asking price climbed to 77 per cent.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/experts-predict-house-prices-could-10724816

#76 Pete from St. Cesaire on 11.21.17 at 11:23 pm

Euphemism not colloquialism……………..

#77 Fake News Again on 11.21.17 at 11:27 pm

“full employment in the US….”

HAHAHHAHA……funniest comment ever from Garth !!

#78 Gravy Train on 11.21.17 at 11:34 pm

#15 Nonplused on 11.21.17 at 7:20 pm
“…[T]he cohort of millennials … and working-age individuals … are only in the classification [of people not in the labour force] because they haven’t worked in a long time, not because they don’t want to.”

“The labor force is made up of the employed and the unemployed. The remainder—those who have no job and are not looking for one—are counted as not in the labor force. Many who are not in the labor force are going to school or are retired. Family responsibilities keep others out of the labor force. Since the mid-1990s, typically fewer than 1 in 10 people not in the labor force reported that they want a job.”
https://www.bls.gov/cps/faq.htm#Ques6

#79 SoggyShorts on 11.22.17 at 12:17 am

#10 Alan Dee on 11.21.17 at 7:05 pm
What has been the better investment since March 2008 when Greater Fool started up?

$25K (or $50K) down on a $500K house and paying down the mortgage, or $50K put into the mythical balanced portfolio and paying rent?
********************************
That balanced portfolio has doubled in those 10 years.
How many cities have turned a 500K house into a 1 million dollar house?

My parents place in Calgary has gone from maybe 450K to 500K in that time frame. My uncle has a ~400K place in Edmonton that is about flat over the last 10 years.

TO&VAN =/= Canada.

#80 Last of the Boomers on 11.22.17 at 12:24 am

@16. Technical analyst

I want to invest in blockchain technology in my “fun” acct. (99% of everything else is with Ryan, Doug, and Garth). Please give me three technology picks. Please. Am having trouble finding anything reliable online and trust the blog dogs more.

#81 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 11.22.17 at 12:25 am

It’s GTA turn. Funny clip
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM

#82 GeniusMoney on 11.22.17 at 12:49 am

To #62 Ace Goodheart on 11.21.17

1. What is the point of owning bitcoin or Ethereum or Zcash etc.?

a) To invest and return a profit (hold and wait for price to rise)
b) Bitcoin – to send money (bitcoins) world wide, instantly, of any denomination (1 dollar worth or 100 Million dollars) without having to leave your home. You can buy stuff with it – lots of stuff.
c) Bitcoin – to buy other crypto currencies that have many other uses
d) Ethereum – to invest and turn a profit
e) Ethereum – to buy ICO tokens (like IPO shares in the stock market) – You can invest in countless new startups that are popping up every week. Go to ICOALERTS.COM for a sample list. Note: This is like Venture Capital investing 9/10 of these ICOs will fail.
f) Ethereum – to use the token to learn how to code smart contracts (aka programmable money)
g) Ethereum – to gamble online, to buy N number of things.
h) Zcash – same as Bitcoin but its nearly fully anonymous. Buy Drugs? Send Anonymous donations? Buy pharmaceudical products online not available in your country? Send X millions of dollars worth without the tax man knowing? You name it – financial freedom is yours, although I think Monero is even better than Zcash and ZK-STARKS will be superior to the ZK-Snarks used by the trusted setup required by Zcash (yeah I’m just showing off now).

2. “So if that is the case, why all the margin buying and futures trading and all the secrecy?”

What secrecy? Anyway… Bitcoin and crypto currencies function more as a comodity than a currency, depends on how you use them. If you use them to buy goods & services, it functions like a currency. If you buy them to hold on as an investment and the price goes up in US/CAD then it functions like a scarce digital commodity.

3. “….. That is all banks do today.” Yeah no, they do a lot more, and a lot more you didn’t even imagine that banks did. Did you know that Canadian banks can loan the entirety of a mortgage with exactly 0% in reserves? That is, they can lend you a cool $500K without having even $1 in deposits to lend out. It’s not called fractional reserve lending, it’s called ZERO reserve lending. Don’t believe me? Watch “money as debt” on youtube – the biggest red pill you ever swallowed in your life… then just for fun check out this wikipedia page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_requirement#Canada

4. “blah blah blah … banks and governments are entrusted to issue promissory notes we call fiat money – they are trustworthy (LOL) – why should I trust Satoshi Nakamoto with Bitcoins?”

Answer: That’s the entire magic of bitcoins and crypto currencies – you don’t have to trust any individual person or organization of any kind. Bitcoin (the protocol, not the currency) is a Trust Network that functions autonomously and with full undisputed cryptographic proofs verifiable by anyone in the world that X number of Bitcoins were sent from Alice to Bob.

Banks, governments and organizations are centralized entities subject to corruption & political influence. Computer code just does what it’s told, you cannot “influence it”. When Wikileaks released the US cables from embassies around the world the US government told Visa & Paypal to block Wikileak’s fundraising accounts. All funds were also frozen. Imagine, an entity functioning as a whistle blower (whether you agree with its tactics or not) all of a sudden had corporations it did business with execute a kill switch to its finances. This is impossible with Bitcoin. You can point all the guns you want at Bitcoin, you can pass all the laws you want banning Bitcoin… bitcoin doesn’t give a rats ass what you think, say, or do… its unstoppable (barring shutting down the Internet or power world-wide). There is no one in charge, it just follows its pre-programmed rules, and its rules say, if you can prove that you have the keys to your Bitcoin account, then you own the Bitcoins in it, and if you do, you can send them to whomever the hell you want, any day of the week, in any quantity, instantly for a tiny transaction fee. Get it now?

Cheers.

#83 Boots on thr Ground in Ptown on 11.22.17 at 2:22 am

#5 Ex Pat canuck on 11.21.17 at 6:59 pm
————————————————–
Big fan of Jesse Felder also. Also 2nd the motion from the other day about Mark Yusko’s 3rd qtr letter being a good read-

I only start to wonder if i’m just drawn to the aforementioned as well as the likes of Raoul Paul, Mark Hanson, DiMartino and Sir Garth himself because of a generally cynical nature due to having been jaded before. Is it more nature or life experience or attitude that determines how we see the world, and therefore how to invest? Behaviorial econ is gripping stuff to me, as a Meyers Briggs INFP type. Thumbs up to Thaler for the Nobel…For myself, I worry about cognitive dissonance and that maybe I’m not “diversified” enough in my “followings”. Or maybe its just this frog drowning never ending sideways torrential rain of the PNW beginning to slowly turn the brain to gobbledy mush from now until June.

I second the motion for another poll and please tack on your handle as well as meyers briggs type if you know it, to give the posts some psychology flavor.

F34Wa.
INFP

#84 Moreau on 11.22.17 at 2:41 am

I guess it’s time to buy shares in Tesla..

#85 Big Daddy on 11.22.17 at 3:14 am

Last Friday I posted a top pick, ENB, and off like a rocket Monday. , $43 last week, $47 and change today. I’ve taken the macro pulse and beefed up my already regular accumulation of energy issues. Obama’s phony climate policies are dead…..normalcy has returned. People I talk to are overjoyed that the international polls have turned 180 against Trudeau and his Climate and Trade bimbo’s…..and the source of much laughter and derision on the trade and energy front. The market sees the political death of Turdo on the international scene as a plus for the TSX going forward. Trump will scuttle any free trade deal our Little Potato tries to do with China the same way Kennedy swept the Russians out of Cuba…..another plus for Canada as Turdo is officially declared lame duck…..fit only for pride parades and lady in waiting while a new PM waits in the wings…..unless Turdy has the good Grace to do a Mugabe and resign before he wakes up with Trumps size ffteen n the reason.

#86 under the radar on 11.22.17 at 5:07 am

Most have no money to manage.
Some have money but need it all to make it to the next pay.
Few, who have extra money, learn to make it work on a consistent basis. Takes discipline.
Those with real money put it to work and let time go by.
Long term stocks and long term income producing real estate made fortunes. I made a choice 30 years ago, money will work for me , i will not work for it.
Good luck with cryptocurrencies – not investing = pure speculation . Greater fool theory.

#87 T on 11.22.17 at 5:19 am

#44 GeniusMoney on 11.21.17 at 9:21 pm

Bitcoin (and all crypto currency) is all hype as it’s new, mysterious, and dangerous. Once people have their taste they will move on. Just another fad.

Doesn’t take a genius to see that.

#88 Dharma Bum on 11.22.17 at 7:21 am

…and in other news:

Rest in peace, David Cassidy.

Keep an eye out for Charlie Manson.

#89 Shawn on 11.22.17 at 7:22 am

Don’t pick on Elon – he just might be the real thing.

Great article

Just buy the S&P500 and forget about it. Simplicity is often the best solution.

https://www.alger.com/AlgerDocuments/Alger_Market_Update_May_2017.pdf

#90 AB Flat on 11.22.17 at 8:17 am

#78 SoggyShorts

My parents place in Calgary has gone from maybe 450K to 500K in that time frame. My uncle has a ~400K place in Edmonton that is about flat over the last 10 years.

That seemed low, so I checked.
It turned out that you are right:
Both cities are flat for a decade now.
And this is in nominal value, so when inflation adjusted they even lost value.

https://housepriceindex.ca/#chart_compare=ab_calgary,ab_edmonton

Quite so. Never let the myopics in YVR or the GTA who roam around this blog convince you that Canadian real estate is a slam-dunk way to growth wealth. It’ not. — Garth

#91 George on 11.22.17 at 8:25 am

MoneyGenius , thanks for sharing

#92 Dolce Vita...Flop you'll like this on 11.22.17 at 8:39 am

Read and scroll.

https://thinkpol.ca/2017/11/21/1-in-4-vancouver-westside-home-sales-appear-to-be-flips/

#93 Eyestrain on 11.22.17 at 8:42 am

#38 GeniusMoney on 11.21.17 at 8:35 pm
To #4 Eyestrain on 11.21.17
“GeniusMonkey” eh? Why revert to ad hominem attacks? 

Me: Because I didn’t think ad simian attacks would be fair.

(pardon the encore,…. I’m only human)

I may be an old blowhard, but when the alchemists claim to be able to turn electrons into gold, I am just a bit skeptical. It has been done, but at an est. cost of one quadrillion dollars per ounce.
(https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-or-fiction-lead-can-be-turned-into-gold/)

You have done a lot of research yourself, and you seem to have some inkling that your new girlfriend is a fickle hoe, but you are asking us to hit on her because you are uncertain.

So I’ve already submitted the Ethereum flim-flam. I take it that the conclusion “…… the blockchain has the potential to usher in “a new paradigm of economic cooperation.”” was not meant in jest. You seem to realize that anything on the ethernet can be f$#&ed with, including your gal, or is it gals? Variety is the spice, but don’t spread yourself too thin.

Leaving security, we move on to valuation. Does it bother you at all that something made of nothing can appreciate in value so quickly? Baseball cards and porcelain figurines I get; a lethal cocktail of nostalgia, greed and stupidity, but even that takes decades to fester. They don’t give out cash prizes for solving cryptic crosswords do they? I know they don’t because I have experience in this area.

Novel and useful. I mentioned Blackberry’s encryption technology not as a comparison of technologies, but as an indicator of demand and profitability in the encryption space. As you indicated, there are many different blockchain types and patents, which means that not one will make money. Lookup Marconi and Dolby to see how it was done.

You seem like a nice enough guy, really. In one of your posts you mentioned the “magic of Bitcoins”. I think you hit the nail square on. I just hope you can see thru the fog of desire and get out while you can. Even a monkey can play the Imitation Game. Don’t be a chump.

#94 Tony on 11.22.17 at 8:46 am

Re: Never again in the life of you or your children will there be 2% long-term mortgages.

I’d like to put a big side-bet that long term mortgages will be well below 2 percent. Much lower. The Trump ruse about higher interest rates fools no one. Everyone knows negative interest rates are right around the corner in America.

Sure, but we can only bet in Tesla stock & Bitcoins. — Garth

#95 Dolce Vita on 11.22.17 at 8:49 am

Looks like I’m not the only one that thinks it is NOT IF but WHEN:

https://twitter.com/BetterDwelling/status/932656797630062592

I say within the year.

Sorry Garth but:

Down, down, down.

Not even an ETF Beta of < 1 will help.

Voodoo stuff. There is no recession on the horizon, and a balanced portfolio would be the best defence even if one occurred. How can you come here every day and learn nothing? Quite a talent. — Garth

#96 Eyestrain on 11.22.17 at 9:11 am

#21 Re., eyestrain on 11.21.17 at 7:46 pm
Great . Not taking his meds again
Good grief

My mission in life is to help people see thru the BS. Garth does an admirable job at this, but​ sometimes even The Clockmaker (RL Stevenson) needs winding up. His devotees are here because they want guidance on wealth creation not get-rich-quick schemes.

I have no skin in the game, just an aversion to frauds and fools. And political extremists. Most of the nonsense is easy to detect (just check the spelling), but even morons can cut and paste.

We orbit the sun only so many times. If you can’t have a laugh on the way, you might as well join the Conservative Party of Canada. Sometimes I feel as if I weave my rich tapestries for the blind, but you have laid my doubts to rest. If you don’t get satire Charlie Brown, don’t read the funny papers.

PS It’s a Boy!

#97 Concerned Citizen on 11.22.17 at 9:31 am

The Russia Facebook menace could happen here if Russians are immigrating and voting in Canada. Voting is as powerful as facebook influencing other votes. Stop Russian immigration to Canada.

#98 Yuus bin Haad on 11.22.17 at 9:36 am

Those damn Russians!

#99 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 11.22.17 at 9:40 am

@#79 Last of the Boomers on 11.22.17 at 12:24 am
@16. Technical analyst

“I want to invest in blockchain technology in my “fun” acct. (99% of everything else is with Ryan, Doug, and Garth). Please give me three technology picks. Please. Am having trouble finding anything reliable online and trust the blog dogs more.”

Thank you for the ask. If your risk tolerance warrants it:

NASDAQ:RIOT

#100 GeniusMoney on 11.22.17 at 9:44 am

To #86 T on 11.22.17
Bitcoin/Blockchain is not all hype, although yes, there’s a LOT of price hype in this space due to the long term potential of this technology. It’s been up and running since January of 2009. That’s coming up on 9 years! The userbase only grows. My guess is we’re now in the 10’s of millions of people using blockchain technology, possibly appraching 100 million by the end of 2018. Is something used by 100 Million people and running for 9 years a fad? DId you also think the Internet was a passing fad? If so, then in the words of Satoshi Nakamoto “If you don’t believe me or don’t get it, I don’t have time to try to convince you, sorry.”

It doesn’t take a genius to see that Blockchains are a genius invention, but it does take many hours (took me weeks actually) of research to answer the mountain of questions you will inevitably have as this technology has massive implications for standing democracies, for the global financial system, for the global real estate market, for the privacy of individuals, for the transparency of governments, for the empowering of billions of poor people who dont have bank accounts (but have cheap smartphones capable of making micro transactions using the blockchain)… and it goes on and on and on. Blockchain is like at year 1993 in comparison to Internet years. In 1993, the Internet pretty much sucked. Remember gopher? VAX terminal consoles to write email that you couldn’t attach any files? Well that’s where Blockchains are today. They are hard to use still, but getting easier by the day. In valuation pricing however we are already at like 1998 – so yes there’s hype, but the potentiality of this revolutionary technology is massive. I will say it again in case you missed it. This tech has more impact potential than anything I’ve seen since the invention of the Internet – not all use cases have been figured out yet. Could you imagine Netflix, Facebook, Google, Dropbox and Youtube in 1993?

To #69 Eyestrain on 11.21.17

So did you stop shopping at stores when Target was hacked? Did you stop getting credit scores when Equifax was hacked? Did you stop believing in the potential of the NSA and FBI when they were hacked (multiple times)? Did you stop sending Wire Transfers when SWIFT was hacked? etc etc. Ethereum didn’t get hacked by the way. The “DAO” was a piece of code that a subset of users decided to run on top of Ethereum as a pretty damn cool experiment. That experiment failed – it got hacked. It’s kind of like coding up an app (DAO) on your phone (Ethereum). If a single app crashes or gets hacked on your phone… do you throw out your phone? No, you delete the app and move on. Oh did you spend $20 buying that app? Sorry for your loss. Buyer beware.

To #92 Eyestrain on 11.22.17

Q1 – “Does it bother you at all that something made of nothing can appreciate in value so quickly?”

No it doesn’t. Just because it doesnt have a physical presence, doesn’t mean it doesn’t have value or its quickly rising value is not justified, although yes, there’s huge amounts of price speculation and inevitably there will be price crashes – just like there have been in the past. To add to this, it’s a deflationary currency, which makes it extremely volatile and rise in price even faster: We have a technology with gigantic potential. There’s only so many units of this technology available (21 Million) and no more will be created. The number of users who ‘get it’ is increasing at an rate, and therefore you end up with exponential price rises. Think of blockchains as a true democratization layer on top of the Internet, but to use it, you have buy some. Buying some Bitcoin or Ethereum is kind of like buying shares in IP (Internet Protocol). Imagine every transaction ever made on the Internet and you could get a cut of it. That’s the price alure of Bitcoin/Ethereum etc. If you can figure out how to pick the winners in this space, you can become a multi-millionaire… like me :) This is just getting started. The question is… are you going to buy Ethereum at $360 per unit.. or $3,600 per unit? Or maybe, you are smart enough to buy something better than Ethereum that is currently less than $5.

Q2: there are many different blockchain types and patents, which means that not one will make money.

Wrong. All the top 200-300 coins have increased in value. Most undeservingly so, but the crowds are still picking the winners, and the nerds are still creating better blockchains. This will go on for another few years until 10, maybe 50 blockchains will be declared as the winners (like tech stocks), each with unique features and functionalities providing real measurable value to the world. Could you imagine buying Microsoft in 1978? Netflix or Google at its IPO inceptions? That’s where we are at right now, only I’m barely convinced these giants of blockchain are even in existance yet. I have yet to research a single blockchain and say to myself – this one is perfect! It solves all the issues of the other ones! No, this is still early days. We are at Windows 3.1… maybe approaching windows 95 soon, but windows 95 totally sucked in retrospect. But that didn’t stop Microsoft from exploding in price through each phase.

Q3: In one of your posts you mentioned the “magic of Bitcoins”. I think you hit the nail square on. I just hope you can see thru the fog of desire and get out while you can. Even a monkey can play the Imitation Game.

Yes, I call it magic, because the science (and encryption computer code) that makes Bitcoin work is mind bending complex – but it is science, not magic. If you really want to understand how all the bits work, you better have a computer science masters degree, a solid understanding of advanced encryption, and about 2 months of studying 8 hours a day before you can claim you fully understand how Bitcoin works under the hood. As the saying goes, anything that is suffciently advanced is indistinguishable from magic. In Bitcoin lore, we call it “magic Internet money” – as a joke of course. When I first heard about Bitcoin in 2011 or so, I thought it was a completely ridiculous idea and dismissed it. Anybody with an IQ above 120 will initially have the same reaction. Bits of data that no government controls and nerds can just make more of it are now supposed to be money? LOL … It’s perfectly natural to have this reaction at first.. but once you start looking under the hood at how this all actually works, you realize that – holy shit – this is some revolutionary technology that will change the world… and as a result of its potential, it’s not going away anytime soon regardless of whether the price crashes 80% (again) or whether it goes up another 5000% percent from here and people will grumble at how “expensive” it is.

Did you know that the Enron scandal would not have been possible if Energy Trading was done on a fully transparent blockchain like Bitcoin? That’s because every single transaction is auditable. There is no way to hide or make more bitcoins and play accounting games.

Did you know that if Credit Default Swaps (The.. “financial instruments of mass destruction” – Warren Buffet) that nearly caused the global financial system to collapse in 2008, … if these were created and traded on a transparent blockchain with identity enabled that anyone could at any time see who had offloaded which CDS to which corporate entity and global contagion uncertainty was instantly knowable? That risk could actually be measured? In other words, that the 2008 financial crisis could have been a much smaller event had we had this tech on blockchains? Did you know that Blythe Masters, the genius woman who invented this Trillion dollar derivatives market has seen left JP Morgan and started a blockchain company because she’s seen the light?

When all the smartest people in the room are excited about some new technology, you need to ask yourself – what is it that they see?! As opposed to imagining you are smarter than all of them and dismiss it without doing any substancial research.

This is my last post for the day. Maybe for a while. Good luck.

#101 45north on 11.22.17 at 10:15 am

Bombardier C Series: The C Series offers a high degree of flexibility to our flight operations,” she says. “With this aircraft, Swiss is able to operate on longer routes [such as Moscow], as well as at operationally challenging airports such as London City or Florence, [Italy]. 

http://aviationweek.com/crossover-narrowbody-jets/crossover-jets-open-wider-route-options-restricted-airports?

There is a fight going on – the fight for the Canadian aerospace industry. So far the Federal Government has supported Bombardier with money but what it hasn’t done is allow the C Series to land at Billy Bishop Airport – which is really Toronto Island Airport. This decision rests with the Federal Government.

Marc Garneau, the Minister of Transport is the MP for Notre Dame de Grȃce – Westmount – a part of Montreal near where the C Series is built. He needs to get in the fight.

#102 Mattl on 11.22.17 at 10:23 am

Quite so. Never let the myopics in YVR or the GTA who roam around this blog convince you that Canadian real estate is a slam-dunk way to growth wealth. It’ not. — Garth

Its not a slam dunk way to grow wealth but owning a home should be part of a balanced approach to wealth accumulation. The example above of the house that didn’t appreciate over ten year….ok, who cares. That homeowner is now 10 years closer to never paying a mortage payment again, and his carrying costs over the past 10 years have been at all time lows. That house was likely cheaper to own then to rent.

Like you said we will never see 2 percent mortages again. That house even at zero apprciation was a great financial decision. The guy renting still needs to buy in at 400k, ten years after dumping 250k into rent, at double the interest rate.

We need to stop thinking about houses as investments and get back to what homes have always been…a place to live in, forced savings, that gives you relief in retirement when its paid off.

#103 Howard on 11.22.17 at 10:29 am

Ottawa to offer direct subsidies to low-income tenants

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/expanded-national-housing-strategy-to-include-new-rent-subsidies/article37046894/

Don’t “low income” people already get loads of subsidies, starting with not paying any income tax? With these subsidies be limited to citizens?

#104 greyhound on 11.22.17 at 10:30 am

Another point of view from a very bright guy… https://stansberrystreaming.com/presentations/grant-williams.html

#105 westcdn on 11.22.17 at 10:41 am

A boomer movie that stuck in my mind – tough choices must be made.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=a+boy+and+his+dog&view=detail&mid=AEE214ACA891B4E9E623AEE214ACA891B4E9E623&FORM=VIRE

I fear I am sounding like a Pollyanna. My instincts are going into overdrive to prepare for tough times. Fortunately, the Moderator and the commenters provide a counter balance to my views. I prefer to be told I am wrong (it fires my competitive spirit) than having my ego stroked.

I was thinking there would not be a Santa Clause rally this year. It looks like I was wrong. GT mantra that diversification counts with me. A “balanced, diversified portfolio is ahead about 9.5%” – I have work to do.

#106 jess on 11.22.17 at 10:45 am

sharing economy :YOUR info

Uber Paid Hackers to Delete Stolen Data on 57 Million People
By Eric Newcomer
November 21, 2017, 4:58 PM EST Updated on November 21, 2017, 10:21 PM EST

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-21/uber-concealed-cyberattack-that-exposed-57-million-people-s-data

#107 Dmitry on 11.22.17 at 11:00 am

#81 GeniusMoney

So all the point that you’ve listed proves only one thing: Bitcoin and majority of crypto-currencies right now are only used for one thing – speculation for quick profit.
This blog is called greaterfool for a reason and what you do here exactly is to spread propaganda to convince greater fools to lose their money to lesser fools like you who got in earlier.
We all have seen this before many times when someone who got in to ponzy scheme is going around and trying to convince all other to get in as well, of course for his own benefit, so when the time is right, sell and leave all other greater fools de-facto losers.
You’ve mentioned that you can use Bitcoin to buy stuff. I do not agree as I live here in Canada and I’m buying a lot different things both online and offline, but never seen an option to buy with Bitcoin. Also all of us getting paid (salary or invoices) with regular cheques or electronic transfers. What has Bitcoing to do with this? Absolutely nothing. How Canadians spend their money then? Right, they’re using cash, credit cards and cheques to buy goods and pay for services. They do not buy Bitcoins or any other crypto-currencies to pay for goods and services. So if 99% of population is not using Bitcoin as what it supposedly is (currency), why is it soaring in value?
The only answer – speculation by greedy people who want incredible profit in no time. As you’ve said yourself in one of the other posts – 26000% profit.
That is a clear sign of ponzy scheme – sky-high profits in no time (or promise of thereof), other people going around and trying to convince you by saying look, I’ve mate tons of money on that (or other people I know did), you can do that too – it is so simple, just buy and get money for free doing nothing! And that’s what greedy people want, not to do any hard works but get money for free. So guess what happens when there’s a critical mass of greater fools gets in on all this hype and promise of mega profits? Right, it all goes down in no time leaving greatest fools losers. It happens over and over and over again and I honestly do not understand why people are so blinded by greed and can come up with excuses to themselves to explain that this is different this time, there is this open and just blockchain technology that is going to protect all fools from losing money this time.
Your posts are the first and foremost proof that this is ponzy scheme as all you’re doing is trying to convince potential greater fools to get in and only talk about how mega-profitable this is and how much it left to go until it reaches critical mass comparing to dot com bubble, for example.
But people are blind and ask for more crap to eat.
All you’re doing is pumping this scam here so greedy brainless people can get in.
But that’s fine, and Garth is doing right thing no deleting your posts as if people do buy this and get in and lose their money, they deserve it is they will learn the lesson and hopefully will use their brains and think next time.
Anyway, do not want to waste my time on this anymore. For anyone who can think and see this scam for what it is it is all clear. For the ones who do not, well, it’s their problem.

#108 joblo on 11.22.17 at 12:03 pm

#55 Surging Cdn Economy!! on 11.21.17 at 9:51 pm

“Bank of Canada governor says household debt is main factor in keeping interest rate at 1%”

“Haha so he is afraid to raise rates because indebted idiots can’t afford it. So what is he going to do? Just keep bs’ing?”

Dude, Poloz will do whatever he is told to by Bilderberg gang. Kanada is a sock puppet.

#109 Leo Trollstoy on 11.22.17 at 12:05 pm

Bitcoin property baby!

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/05/dubai-real-estate-project-first-to-be-priced-in-bitcoin-michelle-mone.html

Anonymous buyers everywhere!

#110 Leo Trollstoy on 11.22.17 at 12:06 pm

Trading real estate for bitcoin in the UK…

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/13/london-mansion-on-sale-bitcoin.html

And the US…

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/miami-homeowner-accepts-bitcoin-bitcoin-cash-6-5-million-mansion/

#111 jess on 11.22.17 at 12:37 pm

efficiency/“financialization”
is it?
challenging the conventional wisdom on Wall Street about the efficiency of financial markets and the rationality of the investors who speculate in them
Graph: How the Financial Sector Consumed America’s Economic Growth

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/graph-how-the-financial-sector-consumed-americas-economic-growth/

#112 Dmitry on 11.22.17 at 12:38 pm

#96 Concerned Citizen
Ha-ha-ha.
By some count there’s more that 300,000 Russian-speaking people in GTA alone (not necessarily from Russia, but from all former CCCP republics)!
Can’t stop us, we’ll vote for Putin in the next election :-)))))

#113 Lee on 11.22.17 at 12:40 pm

Heard a discussion today at work that immigration makes it inevitable that property values will keep going up in Toronto, even if recent arrivals can’t afford to buy because they have to live somewhere. This mindset makes it almost inevitable that in 10 years real estate will double in and around Toronto, as it always has every ten years.

#114 Alistair McLaughlin on 11.22.17 at 1:06 pm

101 Mattl: That house was likely cheaper to own then to rent.

That hasn’t been true anywhere for 20 years. Unless you just compare mortgage to rent, and neglect property taxes, maintenance and insurance. Realtor math vs. basic arithmetic – two different skillsets.

#115 n1tro on 11.22.17 at 1:08 pm

#106 Dmitry on 11.22.17 at 11:00 am
#81 GeniusMoney

Would the points made by GeniusMoney be less valid if bitcoin is worth $100CAD instead of $10,000CAD? He made sound points. Not everyone will see it right now. I remember a similar blindness when Google IPO’ed at $100 and people were saying it was just a search engine without seeing the wealth in the data google mined.

As for places that take bitcoin…

https://www.lifewire.com/big-sites-that-accept-bitcoin-payments-3485965

Not a lot, but more places take bitcoin than say gold, diamonds, etc. Does this mean gold and diamonds have no value?

#116 Braj on 11.22.17 at 1:12 pm

Dmitry, stop embarrassing yourself..back to the vodka with you.

#117 Lol on 11.22.17 at 1:23 pm

Dimitry , Great rant

MoneyGenius’ posts do not prove its a ‘ponzi scheme ‘. That is YOUR intrepation . And thanks for sharing . :)

Good thing you got out of that hell hole known as Russia. How did those clowns get to host a World Cup ? Don’t answer …I know …

#118 Robert on 11.22.17 at 1:30 pm

“Around the time of Y2K, which most Millennials never heard of…”

Stop it, Garth. Most “Millennials” are close to 40, with the average age of around 30. Please find a new term. We all grew up around Y2K and know what it is.

Mills are between 17 and 35. The average is 26. In 1999 the typical Millennial was eight. – Garth

#119 tccontrarian on 11.22.17 at 1:31 pm

“Last time I said it was irrational to expect a 20% market correction just because an index had reached a new summit. Comparisons with Y2K or the credit crisis (or 1929, 0r 1987) are meaningless without context. This time loads of tech-based companies are making money. Look at Apple ($45 billion profit in three months) or Google ($22 billion profit). Amazon is trashing department stores and just bought a supermarket chain. Practical, real-life, broad-based applications of devices, products and services using online platforms have created wildly successful corporations. Share prices have soared. Investors collect dividends. These are valid businesses.”-GT
———————————————————
All true – except – none of these have any value in predicting market fluctuations.
I don’t care about how ‘disruptive’ to existing businesses Amazon is; when it’s trading at P/E>200 I don’t want to own it (in fact, I’m short AMZN).
In 2008-9, it didn’t matter how profitable or viable businesses were – they ALL suffered huge losses! Some more, some less – but they all suffered big-time.

So, it won’t be different this time; history doesn’t necessarily repeat, but it rhymes somebody once said.
When complacency is high, risk is high as well.
Just look at RE in the GTA. Back in April 2017, nothing could go wrong!

TCC

#120 Eyestrain on 11.22.17 at 1:59 pm

#99 GeniusMoney on 11.22.17 at 9:44 am

Dear GeniusMoney,
Thank you for having the time and patience to try and convince me. It finally hit me right between the eyes. You are the harbinger I’ve been searching for as the sign to short the market. I’ve been mostly in cash for almost a year and I now realize that you are the virtual embodiment of the 1929 shoeshine boy. Godspeed.

#103 greyhound on 11.22.17 at 10:30 am
You had me at hello. Thank you!

#121 Mattl on 11.22.17 at 2:01 pm

113 – sure, the cost to own with stuff like maintenance may cost more. My experience with maintenance in my last two homes has been very little. Last home we bought new and did literally nothing for 7 years. Gutters once, rented some tools to do yard work, pressure wash. Home maintenance is not that hard unless you are a tool, or have a major repair like a roof or foundation, something that comes along every 25 years or never in the case of a foundation for most of us.

Bottom line is I’d rather plow 3500 or 4k a month into a mortage that will clear in 15 years (in my case) then 2500 into rent that will escalate and be paid forever. Ymmv and for some home ownership is not the right fit, but if you have a family and can afford to purchase AND button down hard to see it being a bad financial descision. And over the last 20 years its been a gold mine.

This is not realtor math, this is my belief on what is best for the average Canadian middle class family. And no, I wouldn’t encourage anyone to buy in the gta or yvr right now.

#122 Tsr on 11.22.17 at 2:03 pm

Bitcoin is interesting but just a tool to keep the masses busy, just try it out (buy/sell,invest-questionable ) and you’ll figure out if is gambling or not.Catch and release fishing is more fun than real estate/bitcoin drama.

#123 Overheardyou on 11.22.17 at 2:07 pm

One thing that worries me with what happens if all this growth is fueled by debt? More specifically consumer debt that can’t be paid off.

#124 Overheardyou on 11.22.17 at 2:33 pm

#22 AGuyInVancouver on 11.21.17 at 7:47 pm
..They engaged in massive speculation, bidding up the value of companies with visionary ideas, epic burn rates and no earnings (did someone just say ‘Tesla’?)..-Garth
_ _ _
I’d hesitate to put Tesla in that category. They do have a product, a great one, in the Model S. It’s singlehandedly driven the BMW 5 and 7 series off Vancouver streets, along with MB’s E-Class. Why pay gas taxes when the Model S will do everything they do for city drivers and let you pass on paying gas taxes? Where Tesla is struggling is bringing that formula down to the masses with the Model 3.
—–
I think you’ve missed the point that people think tesla is cool and again as Garth pointed out, a visionary company. What kind of company with no profits keeps making new products? I thought you’re supposed to make profits before you stretch yourself too thin. Plus there’s no guarantee their products are superior. Have you sat in a Model S? The MB E Class interior and driver comfort kills the Model S. Same with the BMW 5 6 and 7 series. If Tesla profitable right now and delivered on their promises, I’d completely agree with you.

#125 ronh on 11.22.17 at 2:34 pm

Know what you are buying.

https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-11-15/s71115-19.pdf

faerie poop – Garth you rock

#126 Dmitry on 11.22.17 at 2:45 pm

#115 Braj

Sure, I drink vodka every day, double dose on Sundays.

#116 Lol

I’m from Ukraine.

#127 Sideshow Rob on 11.22.17 at 2:53 pm

There are a lot of very smart people who think Elon Musk and Tesla will do nothing less than save humanity. I on the other hand am not burdened with such a heavy intellect. So I see something else. I see Musk and Tesla as bugs in search or a good windshield. I guess we will see who is right.

#128 Long-Time Lurker on 11.22.17 at 3:39 pm

Adding to the Bitcoin ad nauseam…

IBM is working on the blockchain/shared digital ledger technology.

That’s all I’m saying. Ugh.

#129 TurnerNation on 11.22.17 at 4:17 pm

You see faerie poop when you’re not sobar.

Kanada is a land of bilk and dunny alright.

#130 NoName on 11.22.17 at 4:30 pm

interesting read

https://powercompare.co.uk/bitcoin/

Bitcoin Mining Now Consuming More Electricity Than 159 Countries Including Ireland & Most Countries In Africa

#131 James on 11.22.17 at 4:33 pm

#45 Smoking Man on 11.18.17 at 7:26 pm
Gas is 1/2 across the border even when you factor in USD conversation.
Filled up from 1/4 tank in Burlington last week 62 bucks today in NF 27 from a 1/4 tank.
Now you see how brutal the carbon tax is
……………………………………………………………..
Just checking your math from the other day Smoky.
OK lets assume that gas is 1.20 per litre here.
Its 2.69 per gallon in the USA.
So lets convert Us to cdn.
2.69 to lets say at 1.27 exchange = 3.41 cdn per gallon.
now lets convert to litres. 3.41 divided by 3.8 = .899 per litre.
So lets say you bought 50 litres at .899 that’s $44.95 cdn
Now fill up in Canada 50 litres at 1.20 that’s $60.00
The difference is 25%.
Not half or 50%. regardless of carbon tax your mathematically challenged as well as dyslexic.
Go back to school!

#132 espressobob on 11.22.17 at 4:39 pm

A balanced portfolio up roughly 9.5% this year. Sounds about right. And that is based on the previous yearend balance. Last year was no slouch either.

The power of compounding.

#133 Dan.t on 11.22.17 at 5:34 pm

“Bankers worried about deflation two years ago are now raising interest rates to quell inflation. Never again in the life of you or your children will there be 2% long-term mortgages.”
—————————

Never say never, but ja, I would bet that you are right. But of course half of Canadians still don’t know how interest and debt are correlated so, does it matter.

Talk economics, economic policy, theft through inflation, personal debt, savings, investing, everyones eyes gloss over, but talk about a crappy built bungalow from 1987, with a built in suite somehow, and f*+k it’s game on, lets talk…

ps. you can make a ton of money in crypto, just be real careful. Think what happened with Canada house prices and double that and more.Seriously, who really thought 10 years ago a 1 bedroom in YVR would sell for 800k. Who thought BTC would be 8k+ USD. As with housing, calling a top since 2010 and since then prices have more than doubled in the stupid markets.

#134 Brit power on 11.22.17 at 5:36 pm

# 74

i have been considering moving back to UK for a while now that its crazy to retire in uber expensive BC ( nice bit )

and i found it much cheaper with the current exchange rate ( outside London ) and supermarket food is way way better than here ..

Greek beaches here i come ..

#135 bookmarking this one on 11.22.17 at 5:55 pm

With all due respect.. when you’re feeling (perhaps) overly confident to title your post “up, up, up” then my shorty senses come alive. It’s this irrational exuberance that is often cited when analysts point to investor’s behavior before the crash happens.

my portfolio:

30% cash / 60% REITS / 10% metal

Commercial REITS have done very well this year. Annualized return to date 46% and all cash dividends reinvested.
REITS are less volatile for the most part but even here, diversification is key for my sanity. Picked a couple at the right time. Did research but even the best research doesn’t yield any guarantees. Got lucky.

Looking forward to 2018 with the same strategy. The story isn’t finished but please don’t jinx it with predictions of “up, up, up”..

#136 Dan.t on 11.22.17 at 6:03 pm

GeniusMoney
——————

Wow, Loved reading your posts. I hope you post more.

#137 [email protected] on 11.22.17 at 6:49 pm

Garth, maybe one is named after you,

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/shatner-television-city-1.4413963

William Shatner takes aim at Hamilton condo developer
Brad Lamb’s condo project on the site of former CHCH television studios had suites named after TV stars

#138 Parksville senior on 11.22.17 at 7:05 pm

Remember the three stages of the stock market:

(1) Valued on the basis of earnings
(2) Valued on the basis of capitalization of earnings
(3) Valued on the basis of future hypothesized earning growth

Thanks to the smartest guys in the room.

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.22.17 at 7:38 pm

@#133 Brit Powerless after Brexit
“Greek beaches here i come ..”
++++++

Avoid the Greek Island of Lesbos.
Apparently it’s an internment camp……..

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5101405/Lesbos-residents-strike-migrant-prison.html&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjC8sCGutPXAhVSyWMKHRKmCB8QFggcMAM&usg=AOvVaw3CNe8kvdyocvGg-L3eqEUV

As for Britian…..the “debt” clock is tickin….

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-divorce-bill-cost-theresa-may-trade-talks-news-a8066356.html&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwj2lsqlutPXAhVF9WMKHa65Bb0QqQIIHzAC&usg=AOvVaw0uEEdfM-TS0Fg7snmZwD7-

Enjoy the Passport free travel in Europe for 1 more year.

#140 steph on 11.22.17 at 8:41 pm

You’re a little hard on TSLA long geeks.
I’m doing well thanks :)