Death & taxes

RYAN  By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

As the old expression goes, “nothing is certain but death and taxes”. Well the US Republican controlled Congress is trying to address both of these in their historic tax reform plan called the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. This week we examine the key aspects of this plan looking at the good, the bad and the ugly and what it means for the US economy and stock market.

The Good

First and foremost, this is the most comprehensive tax reform seen in decades, significantly lowering tax rates on individuals and corporations, and simplifying the archaic and byzantine US tax system.

From our perspective the most significant aspect of this tax plan is on the corporate side. The US has the fourth highest statutory corporate tax rate in the world, and the highest of any developed nation at 38.9%. Now many US corporations are able to reduce their effective tax rate through deductions but even on this measure it is still in the high 20s. I believe that for the US to be more competitive globally this needs to come down, in line closer to the global average of 23%.

I would have preferred they lower the US corporate tax rate down to the 23-25% range, which would put them on an even plain with the rest of the world while maintaining a decent tax revenue base, but Speaker Paul Ryan and his colleagues are advocating for a more aggressive cut to 20%.

I believe this will be positive for the US economy and stock market for three key reasons. First, it will help make the US more competitive globally and could result in companies bringing back head offices, investment and jobs to the US. Second, the plan includes lowering the tax on repatriated cash held overseas to a low 12%. Currently there is $2.6 trillion held in cash by US corporations overseas, and companies are reluctant to bring that back to the US given the high 35% Federal tax rate that would be applied.

By lowering the tax rate on repatriated cash, I believe companies will look to finally bring this back to the US possibly leading to increased investment and jobs. Finally, if corporate tax rates are lowered to 20%, US corporations will see a huge boost to their bottom line earnings which would be positive for US stock prices. I estimate S&P 500 profits will increase $10-$15/share (8-10%) on this tax cut, which would be material for US stock prices.

Corporate Tax Rates Across Developed Nations

Source: OECD, Turner Investments

Other positives from this plan include simplifying individual tax rates by reducing the current seven tax brackets to four, increasing the standard deduction ($6,300 to $12,000), and boosting the child tax credit from $1,000 to $1,300.

Speaker Paul Ryan sees these changes lowering taxes by $1,182 for a family earning $59,000 per year.

There is significant debate over whether this tax reform plan benefits the middle-class versus the wealthy as President Trump and the Republican Congress claim it does. I’ll leave that for another day, but overall a reduction in corporate and individual tax rates could help stimulate economic growth and have a positive effect on people’s finances.

The Bad

This is potentially a controversial opinion but I believe the repeal of the US estate tax is one of the weaker aspects of this tax reform plan. Currently the US applies a 40% tax rate to large estates over $5.5 million ($11 million for couples). The House tax plan proposes increasing the estate value to $11 million on the 40% tax rate through 2023 and then repeal the tax altogether.

I see a few key issues with this. First, it will eliminate a tax revenue source for the US government ($20 billion per year) which in turn could be used to fund spending programs like education, health care, etc.

Second, it will encourage dynastic wealth moving further away from a meritocracy-based society. And finally, it will further contribute to the growing income inequality in the US. Below is a great chart that illustrates this inequality with income gains largely accruing to the wealthy, while the middle and lower income brackets have seen little to no growth in their incomes. Future government policies should look to address this not propagate it.

For example, Bloomberg estimates that the elimination of the estate tax on the uber-wealthy would provide an extra $525,000,000 to President Trump’s children. I don’t mean to sound like a socialist here, but wouldn’t that money benefit society more by providing new textbooks to children, retraining worker skills, or maintaining social security for the elderly, rather than giving hundreds of millions of extra dollars to the Trumps, Waltons or Buffetts? Warren Buffett said it perfectly, “If you’re in the luckiest 1% of humanity, you owe it to the rest of humanity to think about the other 99%.”

Income Gains Are Accruing to the Top Earners

Source: Tax Policy Center, Turner Investments
The Ugly

I’m a strong believer in fiscal prudence and living within one’s means, whether it is an individual, a family, or a government. Love or hate ex-Prime Minister Stephen Harper, he and his party did a commendable job controlling expenses, keeping tax rates low and balancing the budget for a number of years.

Well, this is not what we see in this US tax plan. It’s quite simple. When significantly cutting corporate and individual tax rates this will lead to lower government tax revenues, which will then likely add to the already high deficits. In the tax plan they are eliminating many deductions like state and local income deductions, medical expenses, and reducing mortgage interest deductions to help offset some of the lost tax revenues.

Also it is possible that we see higher economic growth from these tax reform policies, which will help, but we doubt it will be enough to offset the lower tax revenues. As such, deficits are likely to rise even further, with some tax policy organizations estimating that this will add an additional $1-$1.5 trillion to US deficits over the next 10 years. Below I illustrate this showing what the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is currently forecasting for deficits (green line) and the estimated additional deficits from this tax proposal (dotted green line).

Tax Plan Could Add to US Deficits

Source: CBO, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Turner Investments

So there you have it. Some good stuff, some not so good stuff. Now the question is whether President Trump and Congress can get this legislation passed as so far their batting average looks like mine back in my little league days. Using another great expression “I couldn’t hit a bull’s ass with a barn shovel.” I hope they have more luck!

Ryan Lewenza, CFA,CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

91 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 11.11.17 at 2:32 pm

InfLewenza,I know you try and read all my posts but just in case you were busy polishing the Porsche when I posted these ones, here are a couple of recent howmuch articles that tie in with your post…

M43BC

https://howmuch.net/articles/how-trump-tax-rate-changes-affect-you

https://howmuch.net/articles/trump-tax-savings-per-filer

#2 Big Daddy on 11.11.17 at 2:35 pm

Ryan, when you say that the continued estate tax would benefit society by directing tax dollars into text books etc…. one ( like me) can only laugh. The increasing tax revenue base has only served to make the civil service rich with raises and perks…our schools, hospitals and infrastructure are falling apart…disintegrating…..while civil servants live a life of luxury. As we have seen from the Trudeau/Moroneau disclosures about rich civil servants tax cheating, scamming and fraud, the only ones who benefit from government tax policy is the government itself and the sycophants who support it.

#3 crossbordershopper on 11.11.17 at 2:52 pm

if the trump proposal goes ahead as planned, there will be a significant difference from middle class canadians taxes compared to the us.
if florida and ontario are compared, a couple making 45K each(respective currency) taxes for a couple in ontario would be twice that of floridians.
in Ontario, between the fed and provincial , and if the couple has one child, you cant deduct mortgage interest and most people only save at most like 1-2 k a year in an rrsp
in florida, if proposals go through, its married filing jointly, 12% , expanded personal exemptions, dependent deduction, mortgage interest, a little 401K like in ontario.
big difference is florida has no state tax, so on 90K canadian family pays about 15K tax between them.
in florida its like 6K us$, big difference.
as well, us $ is obviously higher, costs are lower for almost everything, car insurance to start, house insurance i pay 600 in florida and 1200 on ontario house. etc etc.
if the tax proposal goes through, it will be very stark, it will be $15 canadian minimum wage, kids under 25 get free pills, ohip for everyone, free undergrad education. a very socialist type policy.
in florida the sun shines of course and costs would be much less. a real difference in the overall approach to how to live and where to live and work.
Canada would be great to get yourself started, like the 300K people coming to canada, about 70% stay in ontario close to the airport, like 2 hour dirve in every direction.
live a generation, get yourself settled into the north american system of things, and your kids would be much better off healthier, educated etc, to roll the dice in the usa, they could come back to Canada anytime.

#4 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.11.17 at 3:08 pm

Harper managed to do “a commendable job controlling expenses, keeping tax rates low and balancing the budget for a number of years.”?????

As Meatloaf said, two outs three ain’t bad. Balanced budget? LOL.

#5 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.11.17 at 3:09 pm

Two OUTTA three… I wish we could edit posts.

#6 Terry on 11.11.17 at 3:13 pm

A well thought out and well written article Ryan. I think both the House & Senate Republicans will get this deal done. It’s a great deal for Americans and for Canadian investors like myself with foreign exposure in our portfolios. Harper did a great job as a true leader for Canada. He was one of the best Leaders around!

#7 AGuyInVancouver on 11.11.17 at 3:17 pm

Harper balanced the budget for a ‘“number of years”?! True only in the sense that 2 is a number albeit not a very impressive one!

#8 Stone on 11.11.17 at 3:19 pm

Hi Ryan,

It’s unfortunate that they bring these tax cuts into play in the near future. Unemployment is low, companies are profitable. What happens when the next recession comes? When (not if) it does, they will have no wiggle room to maneuver. This will only amplify the impact of a recession as well as the recovery from it. Wouldn’t it be better for them to hold this whole tax reduction and simplification plan in reserve when that time comes and implement it then? You would think this would be a perfect plan to blunt a recession and reverse it in short order. This all seems shortsighted and selfish from my perspective. Alot more bad than good due to poor and incompetent planning and execution.

#9 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.11.17 at 3:25 pm

Trust Funds Produce Turds……like Turdo and Morneau. No sympathy here if they tax the shit out large estates and trust funds.

#10 akashic record on 11.11.17 at 3:27 pm

For the record, before the proposed tax reform, 3 Americans now own more wealth than the bottom 50% of US population.

Equally shocking that “Excluding the value of the family car, 19 percent of U.S. households have zero or negative net worth.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-09/three-americans-now-own-more-wealth-bottom-half-us-combined-report

#11 acdel on 11.11.17 at 3:43 pm

Good post Ryan. I was surprised to see on how high the American Corporate Tax Rate is; perhaps that “Evil” Trump (sarcasm) is on to something, if this passes, many jobs will be created in the U.S.!

#12 TRT on 11.11.17 at 3:44 pm

Great post!!

Raining here in YVR. Going to watch Clint Eastwood now.

#13 Lost...but not leased on 11.11.17 at 3:49 pm

I agree with Big Daddy

The system has too much momentum in a negative direction. Any changes will be for cheap optics. US has been a slave to Federal Reserve since 1913.

The majority of any added tax revenue will go to Defined Benefits for Civil Servants..this is the Elephant in the room. It’s a no brainer, as upset yet entitled Gov’t workers can shut down the entire country.

The US education system was co-opted by Carter Administration in violation of the Constitution. Simply stated they wanted Central Planning.

USA needs good middle class jobs which are likely gone forever. Manufacturing is in China, Tech is being outsourced to foreigners as well.

What usually happens is the big firms will try to extort tax breaks etc. in the shadow of Trumps plan, which usually enriches the CEO’s etc.

Trumps deal with Carrier has collapsed, many layoffs and outsourcing to Mexico.

#14 Keith on 11.11.17 at 3:51 pm

Controlling expenses? Never give praise in fiscal matters to the federal Conservatives. Never never never. They were worse than useless, except at blaming the Liberals.

http://nationalpost.com/news/canada/huge-growth-in-public-servants-under-tories

#15 SoggyShorts on 11.11.17 at 3:56 pm

What impact will US corp tax cuts have for Canadian competition? I know it’s not a straight line of good for them = bad for us, but there has to be some correlation.

#16 Ryan Lewenza on 11.11.17 at 4:03 pm

Stone “It’s unfortunate that they bring these tax cuts into play in the near future. Unemployment is low, companies are profitable. What happens when the next recession comes? When (not if) it does, they will have no wiggle room to maneuver. This will only amplify the impact of a recession as well as the recovery from it. Wouldn’t it be better for them to hold this whole tax reduction and simplification plan in reserve when that time comes and implement it then?”

This is a great point and entirely rationale. They are adding stimulus through tax cuts when the economy is doing well on its own. But they are politicians so they need to make politically expedient moves and follow through on what they campaigned on. That said, I am a proponent of lowering corporate tax rates since the US is just too high in this globalized world. The US has seen a massive exodus of head offices, and jobs in part because of these high corporate tax rates. But I agree that all the tax cuts could put the US in a tough spot during downturns. – Ryan L

#17 Loans= Taxable Income under Canadian welfare law (such as Ontario Works & Sask. welfare) on 11.11.17 at 4:04 pm

You’re probably too young to live through the Mike Harris days when he cut corporate taxes while cutting welfare by over 20% under his Common Sense Revolution.

It was Mike Harris reforms which made Loans defy the laws of common sense and GAAP standards by treating Loans that welfare recipients borrow that must be paid back = Taxable Income that must be deducted dollar for dollar in the next welfare cheque.

Meanwhile, the wealthy purchase entire floors of overpriced condos, flip it or rent it & it does not raise any red flags by the Canadian government which treats loans that welfare recipients borrow as taxable income…Donald Trump is just going to cut welfare so that the visible minorities that he despise can die off while the deplorable cheer and praise Trump for cutting welfare so that racialized women end up dying on the streets…
Where art thou white feminism? They, white feminism, stand more to gain from Trump’s racist policies that assisting their fellow visible minority women who will have to suffer economic genocide under Trump.

#18 Evangeline on 11.11.17 at 4:07 pm

President Trump is returning from his Asia Pacific trip with billions and billions of dollars in trade deals he scored in order to reduce huge trade deficits.

I can’t see an American recession on the horizon; instead I see lots more Americans gainfully employed and more revenue going into U.S. coffers than in past years under different arrangements.

Bill Mitchell, a Trump loyalist extraordinaire, believes the last two years of Trump’s first term will take off like a rocket.

#19 Loans= Taxable Income under Canadian welfare law! on 11.11.17 at 4:08 pm

Trump could probably find some inspiration under Mike Harris. When Trump demolishes those Section 8 housing so that he can build 99-storey Trump towers, Trump will probably claim that welfare recipients who are homeless on the streets should be taxed for income.

#20 Tony on 11.11.17 at 4:09 pm

It will take decades to kick-start anything in America as almost everyone is flat broke. I doubt the workforce participation rate will ever increase.

#21 Loans= Taxable Income on 11.11.17 at 4:12 pm

The US dollar index is down to 94.28 from 95.00 on Thursday because of “tax cut jitters”.

Poloz is steaming mad that his exports Loonie reached 79 cents before closing time yesterday.

#22 Ryan Lewenza on 11.11.17 at 4:14 pm

SoggyShorts “What impact will US corp tax cuts have for Canadian competition? I know it’s not a straight line of good for them = bad for us, but there has to be some correlation.”

It will reduce our competitive advantage and possibly result in lower investment, jobs, and growth, as corporations (US and Canadian) look more to the US. And it’s been compounded by that fact that were increasing tax rates in some areas, increasing minimum wage across many provinces, and have high energy costs in many provinces. So Canada is feeling it on both ends. – Ryan L

#23 For those about to flop... on 11.11.17 at 4:30 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW

Here is a recent confirmed sale that lost money after expenses.

The details…

Paid 3.14 March 2016

Sell 3.24 September 2017

And so they did fairly well considering what is happening in that price range in that part of the city.

With known expenses it appears as they essentially spilt them with the new buyer which is a common result in my cases,but if we go easy on them and add the remaining expenses and a few percent for opportunity cost it’s not unreasonable to suggest this was a 150k blunder…

M43BC

4948 Pinetree Crescent, West Vancouver paid 3.14 sold on September 5

Apr 30:$3,598,000
Jun 2: $3,398,000
Change: – 200000.00

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/4948-pinetree-crescent

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=4948%20Pinetree%20Crescent,%20West%20Vancouver&filter=1

://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyOTJHUA==

#24 nice read on 11.11.17 at 4:31 pm

firstly, great call on oil. Sir, take a bow

your opinion on the emerging markets over the next 2 years. Do they still have a lot of ‘catch-up’?

enjoy the weekend!!

#25 For those about to flop... on 11.11.17 at 4:49 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW

This one is perhaps borderline but with the price point and the quick turnaround most people would have suspected they made out like bandits which was clearly not the case.

The details…

Paid 900k June 2017

Sold 940k September 2017

So, just like the last case they got more but it wasn’t enough to leave them completely whole with known expenses.

Most people think that this relatively affordable part of the market is doing o.k but people in the last year or so seem to be more interesting in buying condos for more than this property and see it as a better investment.

The lower price point cushioned the damage but likely a 15k loss and considering ,no doubt, a much loftier goal that never materialized.

They live to fight another day…

M43BC

16715 84 Avenue, Surrey paid 900 ass 879 sold on September 4

Aug 8:$999,800
Aug 29: $899,800
Change: -100,000 10%

https://www.zolo.ca/surrey-real-estate/16715-84-avenue

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA3N1VBUA==

#26 Penny Henny on 11.11.17 at 5:05 pm

I like the Saturday bloggers more and more. The number of comments may not high but I believe part of the reason is that they are not trying to start some infighting.
I come here to learn

#27 For those about to flop... on 11.11.17 at 5:10 pm

CONFIRMED PINK DRAW

I am at a certain coffee chain that needs no advertising as the power went off at my apartment about an hour ago.

You can see what’s happening I am using the time to go through the folder here are a couple of cases that got just enough to walk away whole with known expenses.

Paid 1.2 March 2016

Sold 1.29 August 2017

130 N Holdom Avenue, Burnaby paid 1.2 sold on August 24

Mar 21:$1,380,000
Jul 19: $1,088,000
Change: – 292000.00 -21%

130 N Holdom Avenue, Burnaby

Mar 21:$1,380,000
Aug 16: $1,338,000
Change: – 42000.00 -3%

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/130-n-holdom-avenue

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=130%20N%20Holdom%20Avenue,%20Burnaby&ptype_condo=1&ptype_house=1&filter=1L

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzV1dYTg==

CONFIRMED PINK DRAW

Paid 2.33 April 2016

Sold 2.56 October 2017

And so perhaps the most interesting thing about this case is that I have it marked as a mid June sale ,supported by zolo ,but bc assessment logged it as an early October sale and so myself and my support staff on this blog can try to whittle down this gap by passing on information as soon as it becomes available.

People on here tell me that I am wasting my time.

That’s fine.

But it is my time to waste.

The only other consideration that comes into play is am I wasting the boss of this blogs time.

Let’s just say the Pink Posts will continue as long as we are both willing and able…

M43BC

4405 Sophia Street, Vancouver sold on June 12 for 2.56

Nov 12:$2,588,000
Jun 5: $2,288,000
Change: – 300000.00 -12%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/4405-sophia-street

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=4405%20Sophia%20Street,%20Vancouver&filter=
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDBTNkFCNw==

#28 Cloudy on 11.11.17 at 5:13 pm

Re: #2 Big Daddy on 11.11.17 at 2:35 pm

What kind pathetic ‘blame everyone but yourself’ person are you? Civil servants living luxurious lifestyles? Most people I know that took a job with a government (including myself) took a pay cut and not the other way around. If you think it’s so creamy, why don’t you snag one those overpaid jobs? I know people that bitch and moan about what a cop or a teacher gets paid but the complainer is doubling their incomes. Get real. I took a substantial pay cut for my job so I could work from home and see my family almost every night. I have many employable skills and I would put my work ethic up against anybody at any time (although I admit I have seen poor work ethic out of a higher percent of public workers than private, but it’s a rampant problem in all sectors).

And rich civil servants cheating on taxes? A couple of trust fund baby elected officials and it’s a rampant problem? I agree, those guys are silver spoon losers but it’s not a case to make generalizations, not even close.

The only legitimate broad problem I see with government organizations is bloated middle managements and the safety committee / human resources Gestapo making every job impossible to do efficiently and miserable.

#29 Gentle ,Loving Kindness on 11.11.17 at 5:37 pm

Pres Trump has the “Midas Touch”. Everything he is associated with or touches ,turns into crap. This bill, like all other attempts by the Republicans the do something meaningful will fail. Pres Trumps could not sit still and think on one thought for more than 3 seconds without exploding.

#30 dakkie on 11.11.17 at 5:49 pm

Housing Bubbles Ready To BURST Throughout The US! – Markets Are OVERHEATING!

http://investmentwatchblog.com/housing-bubbles-ready-to-burst-throughout-the-us-markets-are-overheating/

#31 Curious George on 11.11.17 at 5:49 pm

Please indicate by year when Mr. Harper managed to balance the budget.
Please indicate with appropriate verifiable evidence that reduced taxes increase economic activity. After all Mr. Reagan tried the same and so did Mr. Bush the younger.
Otherwise the entire article is just a nicely written opinion piece signifying very little.

#32 TK on 11.11.17 at 5:54 pm

Before we jump to any conclusion….
What is Effective tax rate for S&P 500? How many of those companies paying more than 23% and how many pay nothing (or next to nothing)?

#33 For those about to flop... on 11.11.17 at 6:04 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW

Here is one from Bdwy Skrtn’s neighborhood ,they had a lot of problems selling and they finally accepted their fate and took the loss before things got any worse.

The details…

Paid 2.01 February 2016

Sold 2.00 July 2017

And so the numbers look pretty innocent at first glance, but as with a lot of my cases especially north of 4 million the expenses add up quickly and these guys probably shot a 140k hole in their cowboy boots by being too cavalier.

When I go to Arizona, I ask people not what happened at the Gunfight at the O.k Corral but what happened at the Bunfight at the Turner Corral.

No one has heard of that one.

What a waste of good buns…

M43BC

1847 Venables stVancouver sold July 11th
Back on for 2.22 …paid 2.01 asking 2.02

Jan 13:$2,488,000
Feb 8: $2,290,000
Change: – 198000.00 -8%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1847-venables-street

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=1847%20Venables%20Street,%20Vancouver&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMVhNQQ==

#34 robert james on 11.11.17 at 6:09 pm

#27 For those about to flop… on 11.11.17 at 5:10 pm You rock Flop !!! I think all those 8 s in the price must be for some lucky Irishman buyer.. Keep up the great work !!!

#35 Ryan Lewenza on 11.11.17 at 6:15 pm

Nice read “firstly, great call on oil. Sir, take a bow. your opinion on the emerging markets over the next 2 years. Do they still have a lot of ‘catch-up’?”

Close but I can’t take my victory lap just yet. We’re at $57 barrel and I’ve been calling for $60 this year. I guess this is close enough for government work. I’m the most bullish on EM than I’ve been in years in part due to our more bullish outlook for commodities. Then add in EM countries are seeing stronger economic growth, EM equities are cheap at 13-14x earnings (versus US at 19x), weaker USD, and improving technicals. So add to your EM position which we see doing better over the next 1-2 years. – Ryan L

#36 Danny on 11.11.17 at 6:16 pm

Why do you need to apologize about….more text books?

Remember Democracy and Governments were established to not keep the masses down but to try to reach a more level playing field when you consider the history of the 19TH century.
Don’t think for a minute that those who revolted against The British Empire in America did not consider that the ordinary people in America could revolt against their infant democracy as well.
The proof is in the pudding… if this new tax bill does see the light of day…and given Trump inadequacy as a leader (his record is the worst for any President so far)….I am not sure.
I also am not convinced there will be a great “Alleluia ” from those who invest American Dollars over sea….and invest more in America.
Especially Trump who has not “walked the talk “…about jobs for Americans.
Do your really think that Trump will sell his hotels and Golf Courses in other Countries and reinvest in America.

I for one …..am not convinced. …and believe the words on the Septic tuck cleaner in your picture …especially about politicians like Trump….who kissed the tax bill flyer….Wierdo!

#37 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 11.11.17 at 6:27 pm

The hate is strong against Harper and the Federal Conservatives. Not surprised at all, given that an average joe gets his information from the mainstream media, who is a tad bit bias.

I will leave this tidbit: irrespective of the deficits, the Harper left Trudeau with a balanced budget. What did Trudeau do? Not only did he increase his deficits by 3x his promised amount, there is no sight of balanced budget anywhere.

This is structural deficits that means that kids who’re just born will be on the hook.

#38 Ryan Lewenza on 11.11.17 at 6:38 pm

Curious George “Please indicate by year when Mr. Harper managed to balance the budget. Please indicate with appropriate verifiable evidence that reduced taxes increase economic activity. After all Mr. Reagan tried the same and so did Mr. Bush the younger. Otherwise the entire article is just a nicely written opinion piece signifying very little.”

2006/07 the Canadian government posted two surpluses of over $20 billion. Then the FC hit and we endured huge deficits like every other country in part because Canada agreed to significantly increase spending to help get us out of the FC which all major developed countries agreed to. The deficit then narrowed each year following the FC and Harper had another surplus in 2014 just before he lost the 2015 election. So is this enough “verifiable evidence” for you? By the way I believe Paul Martin is a Canadian hero who doesn’t get enough credit for helping Canada go from massive deficits to major surpluses. I can provide the data for that as well, but you’re probably more focused on trashing Harper. I don’t agree with all of Harper’s policies but I do believe he did a decent job managing Canada’s fiscal affairs especially during the most challenging economic times in nearly a century. – Ryan L

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/canada-deficit/index.html

#39 jess on 11.11.17 at 6:47 pm

intellectual property

https://www.icij.org/investigations/paradise-papers/watch-snax-haven-hide-secret-sauce-save-millions/?utm_content=buffer1b030&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

#40 The Great Gazoo on 11.11.17 at 7:01 pm

#27 Flop

“People on here tell me that I am wasting my time.

That’s fine.

But it is my time to waste.

The only other consideration that comes into play is am I wasting the boss of this blogs time.”

Keep up the good work Flop, enjoy checking out your posts.

#41 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.11.17 at 7:29 pm

DELETED

#42 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.11.17 at 7:29 pm

#37 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 11.11.17 at 6:27 pm
The hate is strong against Harper and the Federal Conservatives. Not surprised at all, given that an average joe gets his information from the mainstream media, who is a tad bit bias.

I will leave this tidbit: irrespective of the deficits, the Harper left Trudeau with a balanced budget. What did Trudeau do? Not only did he increase his deficits by 3x his promised amount, there is no sight of balanced budget anywhere.

This is structural deficits that means that kids who’re just born will be on the hook.
……………………….

The budget will balance itself. Maybe you were not listening.

#43 NoName on 11.11.17 at 7:35 pm

Now that The good the bad and the ugly is mentioned, there is nothing left other than press play, popcorns are ready.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFuQMP9sjV4

#44 Andrew Woburn on 11.11.17 at 7:39 pm

Good post, Ryan. Some related observations.

– The reason the tax cuts will amount to a trillion and a half is that the Republicans have just authorized a trillion and a half increase in the national deficit to “pay” for it. This is called either “draining the swamp” or swamping the drain. Your choice.

– Few American corporations pay an effective tax rate of 38.9%. That is a federal rate which applies to a very narrow income band. Most are liable for a maximum of 34% federal, plus of course state income taxes. There are many ways to reduce this rate such as taking advantage of the IC-DISC program for manufacturers who export which can more or less half the tax rate.

– I agree that the tax cut will be good for corporate profits in the medium term. However if economics gets anything right anymore, the cuts will open the door to heavy price competition. The end result should be a general reversion to current levels of corporate profitability but a significant win for US consumers as prices drop. This may reverse some of the trend to wealth inequality.

– It’s hard to guess the impact on Canada. On the face of it, more competitive pricing from US corps should hurt us but its an open question as to the real effective drop in tax will be for US exporters to Canada. On the other hand, an increase in world competitiveness for US businesses should create more opportunities for the Canadian corps that supply them. Theoretically the cuts should also increase foreign investment in the US and drive up the USD in relation to the loonie so boosting Canadian exports to the US.

– Much is made of the potential repatriation of dollars held by US corps abroad. However much of this cash is already held in US treasuries. I find it hard to believe that the evil geniuses that squirrel away billions in obscure tax havens don’t have the wit to “borrow” the money back into the US if their corporations need it, especially at today’s trivial interest rates. I find the idea that this will generate a windfall in US based investment over optimistic. If I were CFO of a multinational, I would think long and hard before I moved cash back to a jurisdiction drowning in debt managed by a game show host who could well be succeeded by a Berniecrat.

#45 For those about to flop... on 11.11.17 at 7:43 pm

I see a bit of talk about Emerging Markets.

Maybe The Duke of Earl Grey might enjoy this one.

This visualization make things pretty black and white.

Well, it’s actually in colour but you get the gist…

M43BC

“This World Map Shows the Economic Growth Over the Coming Decade

Experts have predicted that India may be the fastest growing global economy in the next decade. The Center for International Development at Harvard University (CID) is using a newly updated measure of economic complexity to forecast an annual growth rate of 6.98% for India over the next decade. The CID believes that the countries with the greatest potential for growth are located mainly in South Asia and East Africa.

We created the following scaled map to show the forecasted growth rates. The countries are scaled according to their predicted growth rate. Thus, India appears larger than the United States with a predicted growth rate of only 2.58%”

https://howmuch.net/articles/atlas-of-economic-growth

#46 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.11.17 at 7:50 pm

DELETED

#47 Dan on 11.11.17 at 7:51 pm

There is a huge industry devoted to reducing estate taxes through trust funds, charitable donations and other means. Eliminating the estate tax would greatly reduce the need for succession planning, trust formation and the growth of non profits and charities so I can understand why this policy is controversial to those involved in developing these plans. I wonder how many self directed investors understand that any US asset like bonds, etf’s stocks owned by an individual falls under the US estate tax umbrella when they die. The estate will have to file and if this is done within 90 days most if not all the tax will be exempted. By eliminating the estate taxes, beneficiaries whose testator may not have a high net worth will be able to access the funds quicker with less conflict amongst the beneficiaries resulting in all probability higher consumption rates increasing sales tax revenues. The consumption will be based on what the beneficiaries choose to spend their money on and if this is donating to schools or other charities that is their choice not imposed by government or other entity. It is clearly a win for those whose parents, aunts, uncles, and spouses did not have a high net worth but wanted to distribute their wealth in a painless way with reduced conflict amongst the beneficiaries.

#48 conan on 11.11.17 at 7:53 pm

“Love or hate ex-Prime Minister Stephen Harper, he and his party did a commendable job controlling expenses, keeping tax rates low and balancing the budget for a number of years.” – Ryan

If you count saving one dollar, that will cost the Nation 10 dollars later on as a saving, then I guess.

Ryan, they were a bad dream.

https://youtu.be/SMQ8qSEVFo0?t=54

#49 Andrew Woburn on 11.11.17 at 7:54 pm

A trend to watch in the US –

“His struggle to obtain compensation for the workplace injury inspired him to run for office, and this week Carter ousted a top Republican incumbent to nab a spot in Virginia’s House of Delegates, becoming one of over a dozen unabashed socialists newly elected to US state and municipal seats one year after Donald Trump took the White House.”

Conservatives can no longer frighten millennials with the socialism = communism mantra. Communism has gone corporate.

There are few card carrying socialists yet but the grass roots support for Bernie Sanders was staggering and presages a major change in US politics over the next decade. The fight for socialized medicine will be the catalyst in my opinion. Republican control of all the levers of government couldn’t kill Obamacare. It’s just a matter of time.

“Once taboo, socialism finds comrades among US millennials”

https://www.yahoo.com/news/once-taboo-socialism-finds-comrades-among-us-millennials-051949477.html

#50 Jim on 11.11.17 at 7:54 pm

You forgot a good – the possible change to a resident based tax system.

#51 [email protected] on 11.11.17 at 7:56 pm

By lowering the tax rate on repatriated cash, I believe companies will look to finally bring this back to the US possibly leading to increased investment and jobs.

That’s highly doubtful given they already had the chance to do so with the Homeland Investment Act in 2004.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w15023

Second, it will encourage dynastic wealth moving further away from a meritocracy-based society.

Ah, you’re suggesting this is some kind of oversight rather than an explicit goal.

#52 AGuyInVancouver on 11.11.17 at 8:09 pm

#38 Ryan Lewenza on 11.11.17 at 6:38 pm
….2006/07 the Canadian government posted two surpluses of over $20 billion. ..
_ _ _
Giving Harper credit for the 2006 budget surplus is like giving John Horgan and the NDP credit for BC’s budget surplus in 2017.

The fact is the biggest hole in Canada’s finances was blown by Harper and the ill-considered cuts in the GST.

#53 Andrew Woburn on 11.11.17 at 8:13 pm

It may not matter whether bitcoin’s a bubble. The staggering energy costs associated with “mining” the digital currency could prove to be its downfall.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-09/bitcoin-s-exorbitant-energy-costs-may-prove-to-be-biggest-risk

#54 will on 11.11.17 at 8:13 pm

How come China is not on the chart? Surely China is a developed nation?

#55 Myra Andrews on 11.11.17 at 8:25 pm

For more Pink Snow check out Hutchyman’s Twitter account.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hutchyman?lang=en

He is a Vancouver realtor and I have no connection to him

#56 Keith on 11.11.17 at 8:46 pm

@ #37 Blessed Canadian Millenial and #38 Ryan Lewenza

The “balanced” budget had over $4 billion in cuts to budget contingency, from 3 billion (inadequate) to 1 billion (pocket change on a federal budget) and asset sales of 2.2 billion, including a seriously one – off sale of General Motors shares.

Conservatives had poor timing in terms of the GFC. The fact is over that time period, if tax cuts work and there is surely to goodness ample evidence that they do not, they would have been in a reasonable surplus after seven years. We had a budget balanced by the above fiscal sleight of hand. Would you forgive a left wing government that fiscal performance? Seven years.

They cut taxes, but as usual skipped the hard part of Friedman economics, they failed to cut the size of government. It’s politically unpalatable to cut the business welfare gravy train, or transfers to people that make up vast amounts of votable government spending. Canadian Conservatives do not have the courage of their philosophical convictions. Maybe it works. No one seems willing to try.

The upsetting thing for working people is that fiscal responsibility is the only supposed benefit of a Conservative government. It’s not like there will be progressive labour legislation, or new social policy. Change for a quarter in tax cuts and hard nosed fiscal responsibility is the promise, and the largest deficits in Canadian history is the reality. It’s a staggering under performance of their ideology, their values and their campaign rhetoric.

Paul Martin got it done, with tax increases and spending cuts. Anyone who promises different, needs to deliver a really big surplus to prove that strategy incorrect.

#57 For those about to flop... on 11.11.17 at 9:45 pm

Pink Pumpkin Update.

O.k so I will do something a little different and show you what is coming down the pipeline.

I have hundreds of cases like this one but I am a little bit more familiar with it as it is only a couple of blocks away.

Below is one of my old posts with some details but I’ll extract some of them and show why it is not the same anymore in Vancouver.

This house was purchased for 1.51 million dollars in early 2016,pretty much the going rate at the time for that type of house in this area.

After at least two stabs at a renovation and despite the fact that it is literally across the street from an elementary school and roughly 5kms from downtown,it remains unsold after 15 months on the market in a decent neighborhood.

The current selling price is 1.59 which will cover most of the closing costs but leaves them on the hook for the renovation which is not unreasonable to put a hundred k price tag on.

And so even though with the price negotiations,location and a relative turn key house in a prospective buyers favour they still can’t get a deal done.

No one wants it and when they bought it for the flip it would have appeared to be a slam dunk.

This case is only one of hundreds I have that are in the same boat.

Also,as always I am grateful for the support I receive.

The people in Vancouver on this blog asked for more information on Vancouver real estate and I found a way to fill the void in my own way.

I butcher the English language ,but I have also taken a few Vancouver real estate myths to the abattoir…

M43BC

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Here is another example of some flippers who could just break even or take a loss.

They purchased this house in late March for 1.518 and after doing a quick tidy up had it back on the market in August.

It was removed and some more time and money was spent on it and put back on the market for 1.788 and recently reduced it by $20k to 1.768h

I give examples of when houses go for crazy money over ask, but at the moment it is all one way traffic and a lot of people are about to get run over…

M42BC

5540 WINDSOR ST VANCOUVER paid 1.51 asking 1.59

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=5540%20Windsor%20Street,%20Vancouver&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMjlSWg==

#58 Deplorable Dude on 11.11.17 at 10:07 pm

Problem is that I doubt these tax cuts will be passed. Not in the interest of the globalist swamp critters.

The swamp will scupper them, as they did with the attempt to repeal Obamacare. They will probably put a ridiculous policy on Trumps desk that he will have to veto.

The Uniparty will be on full naked display if these tax reforms fail. It should be be abundently apparent to the voters then that the elected politicians represent their globalist masters, i.e. The lobbyists that pay their campaign expenses. The GOP have no intention of passing any of the MAGA policies. They were making noises on Friday that they wanted to delay it until 2019.

#59 parksville senior on 11.11.17 at 10:21 pm

Stephen Harper—controlling expenses?
Balancing budget?
You certainly reside in Garth’s alternative universe.
Step under the Gazebo, you could be getting sunstroke!

#60 Adrian on 11.11.17 at 10:21 pm

At the macroeconomic scale, one person’s expenses are another person’s income, and sectoral balances mean that in order for one sector to save another must run a deficit. Unless a country is running a significant trade surplus to outsource its money creation needs (i.e. Canada during the ’90s) sovereign government deficits are necessary for the proper functioning of a growing capitalist economy. Professor Steve Keen describes the phenomenon here:

How Austerity Works
https://youtu.be/0y5rP56OX78

#61 Catalyst on 11.11.17 at 10:26 pm

It’s just 0s on a computer. The US has no intention of ever paying back it’s debt. And who is the debt even to?

#62 Smoking Man on 11.11.17 at 10:43 pm

“Toxic Masculinity” a new weaponized word that will go main stream soon.

Watch for it

Home School your boys or the state will take em away from you if you hold traditional values.

T2 backing down from TPP means Nafta will live.

#63 TurnerNation on 11.11.17 at 10:52 pm

Still the 11th. If not too late for last post, I didn’t know our forum host was in the Services. Prob still knows some badazz moves; watchout blog dogs!

Two stories stick in my mind:
WW1 you will find accounts of British and German troops at Christmastime stopping siege and crossing lines: into each other’s trenches to share comradery and holiday spirit. True human nature.
But our elite rules wouldn’t again make this mistake.

WW2: Canadian troops ordered over the top, armed likely with only bolt action rifles, into the superior fire of German machine gunners. I’ve read, bodies stack up like wood, it was too easy.
Our own leaders should have hanged for this.
Yup good vs evil never forget.

#64 For those about to flop... on 11.11.17 at 11:18 pm

CONFIRMED PINK DRAW

Townhomes have been underrepresented in my study and so I will put this case up.

The details…

Paid 840 June 2016

Sold 887 July 2017

And so they probably took a small loss after expenses but lets give them the benefit of the doubt.

So someone still thought it was a good idea to spend the best part of 900k on a 15 y.o townhome in Richmond.

It has 4 bedrooms but they perhaps liked the maintenance aspect as you can get a detached for not much more…

M43BC

5 8388 Park Road, Richmond sold on July 28

Mar 6:$928,000

Apr 20: $898,000

Change: – 30000.00 -3%

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/8388-park-road/5

https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2157887/5-8388-park-road-richmond-bc

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1V0ZWRA==

#65 Smoking Man on 11.11.17 at 11:19 pm

#63 TurnerNation on 11.11.17 at 10:52 pm
Still the 11th. If not too late for last post, I didn’t know our forum host was in the Services. Prob still knows some badazz moves; watchout blog dogs!

Two stories stick in my mind:
WW1 you will find accounts of British and German troops at Christmastime stopping siege and crossing lines: into each other’s trenches to share comradery and holiday spirit. True human nature.
But our elite rules wouldn’t again make this mistake.

WW2: Canadian troops ordered over the top, armed likely with only bolt action rifles, into the superior fire of German machine gunners. I’ve read, bodies stack up like wood, it was too easy.
Our own leaders should have hanged for this.
Yup good vs evil never forget.
….

Every new brain that comes to life is easily programmable if they get it young enough.

It’s up to dyslexics to save the world, heathens, schoolable educational handy cap they the machine can’t control.

#66 Smoking Man on 11.11.17 at 11:28 pm

Sessions needs to go. Bring in a vacuum man. The stench of shit in the swap needs cleansing.

Then 911 justice. The king in Saudi Arabia did his job.

Mr Trump it’s your turn. That power dynasty needs to go before all are kids try and murder us.

Teachers are evil. But they don’t know it. The ironey.

#67 TRUMP on 11.11.17 at 11:40 pm

Nothing is certain but death…..

Ask Morneau about taxes ….. He knows how to skip that rope.

#68 Jon on 11.12.17 at 12:01 am

Where is the bitcoin guy his mighty coin has plunged 22 percent in a few days?

#69 Honky Donkey Blues on 11.12.17 at 12:03 am

“When significantly cutting corporate and individual tax rates this will lead to lower government tax revenues, which will then likely add to the already high deficits”

can’t this be offset by replacing government jobs with automation and offshoring ?

#70 Darryl on 11.12.17 at 7:02 am

George “Please indicate by year when Mr. Harper managed to balance the budget. Please indicate with appropriate verifiable evidence that reduced taxes increase economic activity. After all Mr. Reagan tried the same and so did Mr. Bush the younger. Otherwise the entire article is just a nicely written opinion piece signifying very little.”
2006/07 the Canadian government posted two surpluses of over $20 billion. Then the FC hit and we endured huge deficits like every other country in part because Canada agreed to significantly increase spending to help get us out of the FC which all major developed countries agreed to. The deficit then narrowed each year following the FC and Harper had another surplus in 2014 just before he lost the 2015 election. So is this enough “verifiable evidence” for you? By the way I believe Paul Martin is a Canadian hero who doesn’t get enough credit for helping Canada go from massive deficits to major surpluses. I can provide the data for that as well, but you’re probably more focused on trashing Harper. I don’t agree with all of Harper’s policies but I do believe he did a decent job managing Canada’s fiscal affairs especially during the most challenging economic times in nearly a century. – Ryan L
http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/canada-deficit/index.html
—————————————————————
I agree 100 percent on this statement by Ryan .

#71 HaHaHa on 11.12.17 at 8:56 am

Another great post. And do not try to defend Harper too much because the haters cannot let go. Hitting with facts does not matter to these clowns. They are so tiresome.

#72 43 or 12 on 11.12.17 at 9:02 am

#1 For those about to flop… on 11.11.17 at 2:32 pm
InfLewenza

Really?? What are you, 12?

#73 Dharma Bum on 11.12.17 at 9:20 am

Taxation is theft.

CRA relentlessly extorts nickels and dimes from paupers, while conveniently ignoring the billions that remain sheltered by corporations and mega millionaires.

It’s a farce.

“The petty thief is imprisoned but the big thief becomes a feudal lord.” ― Zhuangzi

#74 NoName on 11.12.17 at 9:45 am

austerity, surplases, general observation and few deep taughts…

——-
By the way I believe Paul Martin is a Canadian hero who doesn’t get enough credit for helping Canada go from massive deficits to major surpluses. -RL

I 100% agree with that.
—-

When he (PM) run against dictator light, there was one and only time i voted lib, i remember when michael incognito was at ice cream place across the road few yrs back dont quote me on it but he said will save our ice cream place, sad part he didn’t, i will newer forget him that.

And that brings me to austerity point, bellow older article but interesting, apparently austerity excel spread sheat had the small mistake somewhere, so concept worked on computer screens but not in real life.

https://theconversation.com/the-reinhart-rogoff-error-or-how-not-to-excel-at-economics-13646

#75 Eyestrain on 11.12.17 at 9:56 am

Kudos to Ryan’s modesty for correctly predicting the direction of oil prices. The statisticians/animal behaviorists on this site might argue that a monkey with a dartboard could achieve the same result. Some even believe that we came from monkeys, but I will leave debunking that myth for another day.

The graphs were colorful and informative (FTATF take note), but sometimes a few words is worth a trio of pix.

“The bottom 80 percent of taxpayers (those in the bottom four quintiles) would see an average increase in after-tax income ranging from 1.1 to 1.9 percent. Taxpayers in the top 1 percent would see the largest increase in after-tax income on a static basis, of 7.5 percent, driven by the lower pass-through tax rate and the lower corporate income tax.”
(https://taxfoundation.org/details-analysis-2017-senate-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act/)

Ryan, is it even possible to swing the pendulum back ? I sincerely hope Garth pays you double-time for your efforts here.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.12.17 at 10:23 am

@#28 Cloudy
“The only legitimate broad problem I see with government organizations is bloated middle managements and the safety committee / human resources Gestapo making every job impossible to do efficiently and miserable……”
********

Total agreement.
Between Human Resources Politically Correct horseshit
and the Safety Nazi’s endless “safe work” horseshit …
Nothing gets done in a timely fashion. Nothing.
And as if that bloated beaurocracy “Work Safe” isnt burning money hand over fist on absolute mind numbing required paperwork….
We now have Worksafe ads on tv showing us how NOT to screw in a lightbulb? ” What was I thinking” .
My God. If any Economist wants to understand why Canada’s productivity rating are crap…..look no further than the HR and Safety depts endless, useless drivels workers are required to read, be tested on and then implement……” If Johnny has two fathers how many mothers does Johnny have?”
Gaaaaaaaaa! Kill me!

P.S. Great name by the way.

#77 Ryan Lewenza on 11.12.17 at 10:42 am

Will “How come China is not on the chart? Surely China is a developed nation?”

China is still considered a developing country and is not a member of the OECD yet. But it’s just a matter of time now before they are considered developed and part of the OECD. – Ryan L

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.12.17 at 10:54 am

“I believe Paul Martin is a Canadian hero who doesn’t get enough credit for helping Canada go from massive deficits to major surpluses. -RL”
******

Total agreement.
It’s a shame we may never see another balanced fiscally responsible budget that actually pays our national debt DOWN in our lifetimes…….

#79 NoName on 11.12.17 at 10:56 am

If you have telescope or planning to get one “you” should definitely read this.

http://microeconomicinsights.org/star-scientists-choose-locate-impact-us-state-taxes/

#80 Ryan Lewenza on 11.12.17 at 11:12 am

AGuyInVancouver “Harper balanced the budget for a ‘“number of years”?! True only in the sense that 2 is a number albeit not a very impressive one!”

I count it as three years of balanced budgets under Harper. Then we had those massive deficits during the financial crisis which every country had and we slowly returned back to a surplus just at the end. In 2009 our deficit was $55 billion during the worst year economically in decades. Here we are at 3-4% GDP growth and we’re tracking at $20 billion in current deficits. Again, I’m not a crazy Harper supporter, but I do believe he and the Cons did a decent job managing our fiscal affairs during that period. – Ryan L

#81 NoName on 11.12.17 at 11:21 am

It’s up to dyslexics to save the world, heathens, schoolable educational handy cap they the machine can’t control.

yesterday morning hwy20&hwy8…
https://imgur.com/a/8M4Zp

—–
@ Farts

We now have Worksafe ads on tv showing us how NOT to screw in a lightbulb? ” What was I thinking” .

How does it change many dyslexics to take a light bulb?

#82 MF on 11.12.17 at 11:36 am

#28 Cloudy on 11.11.17 at 5:13 pm

“What kind pathetic ‘blame everyone but yourself’ person are you? Civil servants living luxurious lifestyles? Most people I know that took a job with a government (including myself) took a pay cut and not the other way around.”

-There’s a lot of these types around. They are failures so they will blame others. The civil service is a convenient scapegoat. It’s sort of like a child blaming the boogie man in the closet for preventing him from sleeping. Pathetic.

MF

#83 Wack on 11.12.17 at 11:48 am

“Martin balancing budgets”?
One might have to study how much Martin dumped onto provinces to balance his budgets or how often the EI fund gets raided to help balance budgets?

#84 MF on 11.12.17 at 11:52 am

#71 HaHaHa on 11.12.17 at 8:56 am

“Another great post. And do not try to defend Harper too much because the haters cannot let go. Hitting with facts does not matter to these clowns. They are so tiresome.”

Yup. Ryan even found a CBC article to defend his position. Unheard of. Yet these people cannot let go because “Harper was mean”. That’s how Trudeau got elected. His opponent was mean…nevermind the fact his policies are 99% crap and he is an embarrassment.

I guess that’s what happens when your base consists of pot heads, the lazy, coddled naive youngsters still living at home, and the delusional.

MF

#85 Gravy Train on 11.12.17 at 1:09 pm

#53 Andrew Woburn on 11.11.17 at 8:13 pm
“It may not matter whether bitcoin’s a bubble. The staggering energy costs associated with ‘mining’ the digital currency could prove to be its downfall.”

#68 Jon on 11.12.17 at 12:01 am
“Where is the bitcoin guy his mighty coin has plunged 22 percent in a few days?”

Here’s another schism between millennials and boomers:
“A survey by venture capital firm Blockchain Capital found that about 30 percent of those in the 18-to-34 age range would rather own $1,000 worth of Bitcoin than $1,000 of government bonds or stocks. The study of more than 2,000 people found that 42 percent of millennials are at least somewhat familiar with bitcoin, compared with 15 percent among those ages 65 and up….

“While just 2 percent of Americans own or have owned the cryptocurrency, according to the survey, that investor base might get larger as millennials become the main investment force….”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-08/millennials-ready-to-ditch-stocks-to-keep-bitcoin-rally-alive

“You can’t value bitcoin because it’s not a value-producing asset.” — Warren Buffett
https://www.coindesk.com/real-bubble-billionaire-warren-buffett-doubles-bitcoin-doubt/

“… [B]itcoin mining companies, which are essential to the currency’s underlying technology, are flashing warning signs.”
https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2015/01/13/as-bitcoins-price-slides-signs-of-a-squeeze/?_r=0

Here’s a good discussion in Wikipedia:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_bitcoin

I think that the purchase and/or mining of bitcoin and other virtual currencies is a perfect example of greater-fool theory in action. :)

The type i) error is not buying bitcoin and its price goes through the roof, and the type ii) error is buying it now, and you lose everything—much like buying property in GTA or GVRD.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_I_and_type_II_errors

So, what do you do? A type i) error is much less painful than a type ii) error—at least for me. And the fact that you’re reading this blog strongly suggests that you don’t want to be a greater fool. :)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_bitcoin

#86 Big Daddy on 11.12.17 at 1:16 pm

#84 MF…..the Hate Harper Campaign ran longer than the Goebbels ‘Big Lie’. The CBC received a billion dollars minutes after Trudeaus election…..any coincidence. The civil service unions skirted the political donations law by running millions of dollars in advertising. The ‘CBC ‘Power Panels’ were particularity sickeningly partisan….but after three years of HATE HARPER Campaign on the national broadcaster every day….day in and day out…..enough Canadians were lulled into a trance. Turns out it was all BS and the clown they foisted on us is a total lunatic.

The 24/7 rotation of the Duffy Trial was front page A BLOCK media pudding for 3 years……only to disappear five minutes after the Trudeau coronation. Huh?

It turns out ‘the big lie’ was successful and we’ve been hoodwinked by a group who used a sock puppet to distract us. Blame Trudeau on yourself if you didn’t vote. Do blame Harper for not blocking the huge wave of American green carpet baggers who bought our election coverage. Do blame Harper for not shutting down the CBC from taking foreign funds from the likes of Obama, Tides, Farrallon Capital etc that strangled our Canadian companies in frivolous court challenges now that we know they were all back stopped by the Obama Administration. Harper should have shut down foreign influence in our election…….he is to blame for hundreds of thousands of jobs lost because Americans were allowed to attack our industry and use our court system. Trudeau is the ultimate dupe of the Luddite left…and we elected him…..blame yourself.

It looks like a very American is being used against Canadians this time around. Not surprising with ex Democratic Party loser David Axelrod at the helm. It would appear we’re being intentionally sickened by politics and politicians so that people refuse to vote out of disgust. This tactic will allow the 24% of the population who are civil servants to bloc vote and with very few seats from very special interests the Liberals hope to steal another election with a minor majority of 30 to 33%.

Trudeau is the first PM ever to be mining selfies in the summer climes of SE ASIA on Rememberance Day…..rainbow socks and all. He’s tried to push the Unifor and Obama failed and fraudulent legacy agenda using Canada’s political capital as if it were his own. He’s embarrassed us with our close Allie Australia….and had a 50 minute sissy fit with Japanese PM Abe…. oh….and remember this….the inconvieniant truth about Al Gore is that he is a hedge fund manager who profited mightly knowing which companies would receive Obama subsidies. But…..our Climate Barbie is still sticking to the fraud….probably Gerald Butts again…..trying to kill Canada by any means in the time he’s got left…..tick tick tick.

The last time Trudeau went on a victory tour of the Phils his handlers were caught hiring street walkers to fill the gaps in a ragged crowd…..they pulled those ads when caught…..lets see what our clown does to embarrass us this time.

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.12.17 at 1:43 pm

@#84MF

The voters are tiring of “Selfie King” not to be confused with #81 Noname’s dyslexic diatribe “Steven King”

Trudeau, a one hit wonder.

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.12.17 at 2:07 pm

@#81 NameNo

“What was I thinking?”
Or
” How to screw in a lightbulb (at home)” …….taxpayer funded ads from “Preventable” aka Work Safe BC.
Or
Ads for people that Darwin warned us about 200 years ago.

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.preventable.ca/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwi8goKX3LnXAhUPwGMKHQipBJkQFggkMAM&usg=AOvVaw2A3wuBUl60gNoa03Idhegf

#89 conan on 11.12.17 at 2:30 pm

#86 Big Daddy on 11.12.17 at 1:16 pm

Your entire post is written in the Goebbels ‘Big Lie school of prose.” Hard to re-frame Duffy in that way.I am embarrassed for my country that Harper’s Conservatives charged him with that many offenses and none of them stuck. Come to think of it,you did the same thing to several other people.

Maybe just crawl back under your rock?

#90 NoName on 11.12.17 at 2:49 pm

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.12.17 at 2:07 pm

ill drag my nukels to family room book shelf and see what origin of spicies says. But i remember this from some of the peptalks from former employe:

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change.” i dont think this was darwins gem.

I do this with kids every so often, electric hotdog, it took only one jolt before they learnet that electricity is invisible.
http://www.ecmweb.com/sites/ecmweb.com/files/uploads/2013/12/NEC-Violations-Illustrated-Electric-Hot-Dog_1.jpg

#91 NoName on 11.12.17 at 3:18 pm

Now that covo went safety training way it would be clime to skip on those.

CPR
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vmb1tqYqyII
FIRE DRILL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gO8N3L_aERg