Pretty bad

A final few words on the numbers released this week by real estate boards. Increasingly, they are suspect. Perhaps not deliberately, but misleading nonetheless. Experiences on the ground are showing a different reality than that which appears behind the paywall at the Globe & Mail, for example. Markets are not recovering. They are floundering or, at best, treading water. Sellers are still greedy, buyers are bewildered and the only buzz is at the lower end of the price range where hormones outnumber years of experience.

Beware.

And here’s an example – Richmond Hill, in the northern arc of the GTA with a heavy Asian-Canadian population, acres of McMansions and a massive real estate appreciation over the last five years. Here are the current facts, gleaned by stats freak Hanny Elsayed at his most useful site ( http://torontorealestatecharts.com/).

READER ADVISORY:
The following numbers may cause periods of coarse language, incite brief violence and marital discord or conjure images of frightening situations, especially when combined with leverage or stress. Reader caution is advised. Thank you.

  • Richmond Hill detached home sales in October down 54.8%
  • Listings up 144.0%, year-over-year
  • Sales to active listings ratio (SALR) is trending downward
  • Average Richmond Hill detached home price is down 12.1% year/year
  • Median Richmond Hill detached home price is down 13.6% year/year
  • The average detached home is now $238,429 cheaper than six months ago
  • Decline in average detached price since April: 15%

Says Hanny: “The outer burbs are still looking very soft (see Richmond Hill/Markham/Burlington/Oshawa), with prices flat or down. On top of that supply is up big time in these areas and shows no signs of dropping. Even City homes and nearby ‘burbs are ok at best.

“Many media outlets are saying things look like they’re picking up, but it’s more nuanced than that: when you separate out ‘burbs from city detached and condos you see a few different stories. There is a lot of regional subtlety that the news headlines gloss over, and some of these areas look pretty bad.”

Now, let’s get the other concerning news out of the way.

  • It snowed in Vancouver. And Richmond, Burnaby and Surrey. Yes, in the first week of November, where there’s a socialist government now in power determined to bring in a slate of land restrictions and other equity-sucking measures to accompany the Empty Houses Tax and the Foreign Buyers Tax. Vancouver (and the LM) is already one of the most inhospitable financial climates in the world in which to live, where the savings rate is negative and too many people have 100% of their net worth in a single, inflated asset. What big advantage did they have going for them? Yes, the weather. Oops.
  • Interest rates are going up. No, really. Again. The latest jobs numbers pretty much confirm the cost of money will be rising, and Canadian mortgage rates right along with them. The US churned out 261,000 new positions last month, seriously rebounding from the post-hurricane low that went before.

And Canada continues down the same path, even after the dreadful news about Sears and other retailers. A rebound in oil and manufacturing were partially responsible for a whopping jump of 35,300 in new jobs created last month, which also came with stronger wage increases. An 11-month streak of job gains is the best in a decade, with most positions being in the private sector – over 200,000 of them in the last two months alone, the best deal since 1976.

Will the Bank of Canada also raise rates in a few weeks? Uncertain. Scotiabank economists say Poloz will wait until April, then hike twice next year. Others are more hawkish, seeing four increases. But it’s worth remembering the central bank rate has already doubled this year, and the new stress test will add 2% on top of that.

Meanwhile the Fed will not be finished in December. The Trump tax cuts, double-digit corporate earnings and the sustained GDP growth which continues to throw off jobs (even as America has reached technical full employment) promise future inflation, rising stocks and higher money costs. Bond prices will retreat. Bond rates, and the mortgages they fund, will increase.

Basic thought: over the next six months don’t believe anything you read about real estate. Well, almost.

149 comments ↓

#1 Interesting... on 11.03.17 at 5:50 pm

When does the 1.4x crash multiplier from the January 24 2017 CMHC and GreaterFool reports make its way to the Guelph / KW area?
October numbers show that KW is only down 9% from peak, (September was down 14% from April, but the cat bounced). I am going to need a bit more “crash” before I can buy in.
If GTA is down 20% we should be down 28?

#2 Jimmy on 11.03.17 at 5:51 pm

Who’s first !!?

#3 Andrewski on 11.03.17 at 5:52 pm

A couple I know were 1st time homebuyers & although I spoke with them months ago & shared a link to this website, unfortunately they recently bought a place & they were truly bewildered, falling smack dab in the middle of “where hormones outnumber years of experience”! They moved in to their new place, already suffering a drop in value to less than they paid.

#4 MF on 11.03.17 at 5:52 pm

Interesting how we recently had a bad “report”just a few days ago and everything looked gloomy. The usual moaning commenced.

The CAD was going to 50 cents, one guy said there would be a currency debasement, ex pats in third world crap holes were puffing their chests etc.

Now we get another rosy jobs report. “One of the best ever”.

How the heck can there be such a difference in economic indicators only a few days apart, and which should we focus on more?

MF

#5 MF on 11.03.17 at 5:54 pm

#180 Braj on 11.03.17 at 5:31 pm

“I graduated Civil, earn 55k.

My friend who went to the same school got a Masters in Economics is earning twice as much.

Watch your mouth son.”

-Your friend’s success has more to do with his personality, intelligence, and work ethic than that degree.

MF

#6 Fred on 11.03.17 at 5:54 pm

First. I’m tired of reading anything about real estate.

#7 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.03.17 at 5:56 pm

But it’s worth remembering the central bank rate has already doubled this year, and the new stress test will add 2% on top of that.
………………….

And the rate of inflation is only 1.6% ! :)

#8 Angry Forex Trader on 11.03.17 at 5:59 pm

Is poloz going to turn bearish and cause a 65 cent Loonie? I hope not.

#9 Sebastien on 11.03.17 at 6:03 pm

Quick question: Can an immigrant with two passports who is underwater on his/her mortgage can just bail out and leave the country?

#10 mitzerboy aka queencitykidd on 11.03.17 at 6:17 pm

its finally Friday get it on …
get your motor revving for a wild weekend

the possum

#11 RudyGQ on 11.03.17 at 6:23 pm

It is wonderful news that over 200,000 jobs have been created in the last two months alone most of them private sector jobs. The more people participating in the economy, the better it is for society as more income provides more choices. A recent unscientific study put on by the esteemed University of Me/Myself and I, observed the parking lots of a subset of industries representing our Bank of Canada’s “Basket of goods” (refers to a relatively fixed set of consumer products and services valued on an annual basis and used to track inflation). The experiment was conducted in the west part of the Greater Toronto Area suburbs over a period of the last 3 months at various times of the day and week. Test areas were restricted to parking lots of industrial parks, malls, liquor/beer stores, and Cineplex complexes (the ones that have theatre, restaurants and other entertainment facilities on one property). The results showed these parking lots remained relatively full throughout the day and work week, with elevated usage of entertainment hubs on Thursdays through to Saturdays. This ‘professional’ evaluation of data concludes the local economy is doing well and has spending momentum picking up as we head into the Christmas season.

Let us not hope for an economic crash as it is the little guy, the everyday people that get hurt the most. But rejoice when families have money to enjoy the basics and extras in life. May our country continue to grow, prosper and be free as there are many brave souls who served and who gave their lives for our liberty. Let us not forget! Je me souviens!

#12 akashic record on 11.03.17 at 6:27 pm

Sex with a robot. — Garth

How was it? Do tell…

#13 Bill Grable on 11.03.17 at 6:29 pm

This was rather stark. Are they paying attention in Vancouver? NO. The West End is my haunt, and right now it is being ripped up, for construction, on just about every block.
High – Rise Condo, after High-rise, in the densest packed part of North America, are being slammed up at the rate of knots. The Sales offices on Davie Street are full of people. They are NOT local.
Us locals are getting creamed in a R/E market that is truly insane. Rents? Good luck!!!
Mr. Turner has tried to get people to listen, and everyone here is too busy ‘playing the game’, to pay attention.
Wait until, oh, January.

#14 NEVER GIVE UP on 11.03.17 at 6:32 pm

#155 Triple Top on 11.03.17 at 12:43 pm
===================================
True to form of all new Governments. Our newly elected NDP Government is silent on real estate reforms. After all they own multiple homes too!

#eatouryoung
#throwmillenialsunderthebus

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/praying-for-a-real-estate-crash/

#15 Mark on 11.03.17 at 6:32 pm

“Quick question: Can an immigrant with two passports who is underwater on his/her mortgage can just bail out and leave the country?”

Yes. The banks can’t legally charge a borrower in that situation a higher mortgage rate, but banks are allowed to structure their portfolios in such a manner that they discriminate against risks that may be posed in them. In such case, where mortgages are issued to people in such cases where there is vulnerability to expatriation, the mortgage would have a higher probability of being submitted for CMHC subprime mortgage insurance.

There are a variety of other proprietary risk metrics that the banks use, to make sure the riskiest parts of their portfolios fall under bank-purchased CMHC subprime mortgage insurance. This is why Canada’s big-5 banks are rock-solid investments even as housing prices go down, poised to benefit from the fall in prices and expansion in risk premia. That is, until the CMHC runs out of money (they’re 40-50X leveraged into subprime guarantees!!), then its a game of “mutually assured destruction” between the banks, the CMHC, and the GoC.

And the rate of inflation is only 1.6% ! :)

And until/unless that accelerates closer to the 2% BoC policy target, which seems extremely unlikely given falling housing prices and the weakening consumer economy, the BoC is likely on hold. The Fed, though, with the stronger inflation occurring in the US, probably will have to act.

#16 Bob Dog on 11.03.17 at 6:35 pm

I just turned down a job in Toronto after looking at the rental prices. Didn’t even bother with home prices.

Was Toronto transformed into a tropical paradise with white sandy beaches, blue oceans and palm trees over the last 15 years? Am I awarded 70 virgins when I arrive?

The cost of housing is beyond ludicrous. Y’all got a 3rd world standard of living out there. What gives?

#17 Jay (not that one) on 11.03.17 at 6:37 pm

Of course I have absolutely no desire to watch a bunch of people lose their shirts, but there’s a certain satisfaction in making a prediction that everyone told you wasn’t true only to watch it come true completely.

In this case the only thing that tempers that satisfaction is knowing that you don’t need to be the great student of economics to realize what was coming. The exact same thing happened 10 years ago, and triggered the Great Recession. Less than 10 years before that, we got to see the dot-com Bubble Burst, taking the rest of the economy with it.

I will fully own the fact that I did go and buy a house, in one of the least expensive jurisdictions in the country. It is surreal hearing that certain homes have lost more value than the entire value of my home.

How sad that once all of these grown adults realize the stupidity of their actions, they will almost certainly be looking for a way to have me pay for their mistakes. A special interest group once filled with hubris, who most certainly shall expect to be made whole.

Yet to come is further reckoning. Inflation is eventually going to spike. Can you afford your life with 8% interest rates? I bet a lot of people can’t.

This is another example of an entirely predictable consequence. I’m not that old, but just looking at mortgage rates when I was a kid should give us an idea not 1.8% interest rates are simply not going to stay with us forever. (Oh look…. Up they go)

#18 TRUMP on 11.03.17 at 6:39 pm

Ya mean all those government jobs that have been created month-over-month isn’t going too boost Real Estate vaules………

But our economy is sooooo healthy. Says an Turner Investment employee.

#19 Zapstrap on 11.03.17 at 6:45 pm

Those parking signs get me … will leave the handicap and veterans spots alone but will not obey others. Just too many. I live here too.

#20 Dolce Vita on 11.03.17 at 7:02 pm

Ah come on, Labour Force Survey good that Sept to Oct +jobs created, but look where most came from (‘000s):

-Other services +21.4
(civic and professional organizations, and personal and laundry services)

-Information, culture and recreation +15.3

-Construction +18.4 (only decent sector of the + group)

AND the Losses:

-Trade -35.9
-Ed + Health Care -9.2
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

A mixed bag by Province:

AB posted a nice gain: +11.9 (Aug-Sept was -7.8)

BC still bleeding jobs: -6.1 (Aug-Sept was -6.7)

ON +5.2 (big drop from Aug-Sep of +34.7)

PQ +15.3 (nice gain from -7.6 in Aug-Sep)
___________________________________________

So Garth, when your largest job creation sector is “personal and laundry services”, ON a surprising drop in job creation, BC continuing to bleed jobs, PQ up and down and AB up and down with a 7.8% unemployment rate AND Trade getting the stuffing kicked out of it…

I wonder what all the unbridled enthusiasm is about.

Ya, it’s still up, I get that.

#21 TurnerNation on 11.03.17 at 7:08 pm

Today’s Real Estate market reminded me of Natural Gas trade say 8-10 years ago. Recall that it fell lots…then a huge push including door-to-door to get Kanadians locked into L.T. contracts…cause you know the prices only will go Uppa up again!

Did they? Nope: https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=m1

Heard about SM’s Blog dog sniff ‘n bark event last night but I was at a Whiskey tasting w/food. For peat’s sake.

#22 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 11.03.17 at 7:16 pm

Garth numbers can’t be right. I thought those dirty SHYSTERS said HAM buying up all on Canada. What’s that you dirty lying sacks of poo? Oh more excuses and lies? Why aren’t the rich immigrants buying up everything?

#23 AGuyInVancouver on 11.03.17 at 7:16 pm

#4 MF
You think you’re confused, pity the poor folks at the National Pest. They’ve been gleefully playing the little black cloud for Justin’s sunny ways. “Oh the economy’s in a bad way, just wait..” And wait, and wait. They practically wet themselves over the lukewarm GDP report and now along comes all this gosh darn job creation. What’s a Rex Murphy-ite to do?

#24 S.Bby on 11.03.17 at 7:25 pm

And YVR has the highest gas prices in the country. $145.9/litre right now and will probably increase next week.

#25 S.Bby on 11.03.17 at 7:31 pm

Amazon: Another 1,000 jobs for YVR.

https://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=SUF0305&mobile=false

#26 Royal City Dweller on 11.03.17 at 7:42 pm

“READER ADVISORY:
The following numbers may cause periods of coarse language, incite brief violence and marital discord or conjure images of frightening situations, especially when combined with leverage or stress. Reader caution is advised. Thank you.”

Hahahahahaha!
THIS. IS. PRICELESS. THANK YOU!!!!

#27 Renter's Revenge! on 11.03.17 at 7:43 pm

#24 S.Bby on 11.03.17 at 7:25 pm
And YVR has the highest gas prices in the country. $145.9/litre right now and will probably increase next week.

What are you filling up with? Dom Perignon?

#28 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.03.17 at 7:45 pm

@#128 Gravy Train
““Cold and snowy in Burnaby…. like the markets”

Er, um, emerging markets are up 7% last month alone.
++++++

I was referring to the Canadian Real estate markets that Garth talked about in yesterdays comment….as well as todays……….yeesh

#29 akashic record on 11.03.17 at 7:50 pm

#106 Howard on 11.03.17 at 4:49 am

From yesterday’s discussion…

#197 akashic record on 11.02.17 at 10:43 pm
#187 Newcomer on 11.02.17 at 5:06 pm

#138 Howard on 11.02.17 at 10:47 am
————-

Immigration is good for population growth for two reasons: it brings in more bodies, and immigrants have more kids than natives. If we didn’t have high levels of immigration, we would end up like Japan, where houses sit empty and schools are closed. This will eventually happen everywhere, as more and more countries pass peak population. In the meantime, we are lucky that we have a gas pedal that we can push at will to keep population growth from falling too far. Our economy has always been built on population growth and it will take a lot of adjustment when that eventually stops.

——

Completely outdated view about the current and more importantly the coming economy.

The world does not need further population growth.
Especially not for economic purposes.

Declining population no longer means declining economic output, the imaginary gap is more and more easily filled by increased productivity of automation, robotics.

Declining population with the same economic output means potentially more wealth, as it is shared by less people.

Countries with declining population are and will be the leaders, main beneficiaries of leading edge in technology driven productivity and wealth creation, accumulation.

Countries with growing population will have the opposite.

Immigration is no longer an economic necessity.

Immigration today is a political, ideological dogma, which is used primarily for custom shaping voter demographics.

Study Japan. – Garth

———————————————–

Study Japan? You mean the world’s 3rd biggest economy, still, after 20 years of alleged stagnation? Highest standard of living on the planet? High per capita GDP (population is falling slightly, in line with GDP flatlining)? Longest life expectancy on the planet? A country known for ingenuity, creativity, and high-end technology (unlike the stream of substandard crappy merchandise from across the Sea of Japan)? That Japan?

Heaven forbid Canada become like that!

What’s your worry about Japan, Garth?

130 million people with virtually no natural resources, energy was forced to create one of the most innovative economies in the world. As the other commenter pointed out already, the 3rd among all countries.

This is within a few decades after being losers in WW2 and getting the atomic bomb dropped on them.

I am pretty sure they will cope with declining population at the emerging age of automation and robotics.

90% of Japanese businesses are medium and small size. That forces Japan to focus on developing automation and robotics for medium and small size businesses, which is not the low hanging part of the industry, other economies are focusing on large business automation, which lends itself easier for the task.

As a result, Japan is already leader of automation and robotics designed specifically for medium and small size businesses, those companies are forced to heavily invest in these new labor saving technologies.

Compare it with Canada, where the same medium and small size businesses build their future in imported cheap labor, which will be increasingly less productive.

It also means that the automation and robotics industry itself is not going to develop here, without pressing local demand for it.

As I said before: immigration is no longer an economic necessity.

In fact, immigration for the purpose of growing the labor force artificially slows down and blocks the transformation from mostly human labor based economy to automated, robotics economy.

This is the division that will separate first class economies from the rest – with no hope to ever catch up if taking the wrong turn now.

#30 Smoking Man on 11.03.17 at 7:52 pm

You came always count on MSM to loath my Predident Trump blow sunshine on real estate and Libralism.

#31 Cottingham a bargain on 11.03.17 at 7:56 pm

If stats about Richmond Hill above are correct then it would be advisable to buy now in RH while you still can.

The Asian influence in the area will only intensify much like Vancouver .

#32 Greg on 11.03.17 at 7:58 pm

A few weeks ago I promised to argue for the following assertion at some point:

“Realtors are involved in a noble profession and play a useful role in the sale of residential real estate.”

Since then I have seen Happy Housing Crash Everyone say:

“Yes there are very good and honest realtors.”

A tip of my hat Happy for that acknowledgement. But there is still no shortage of realtor bashing so let me present my case for noble realtors as follows …

C’mon dogs. Stop attacking the realtors. The vast majority eek out a modest living and drive Chryslers by working their tails off. Chryslers dogs! The shame of it all. They have to because there are too many of them in Toronto and the competition is fierce. 48k realtors in Toronto compared to 13.5k in Chicago, a market of similar size. (see http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/realtors-housing-market-1.4231913).

Why are there too many? One major reason is because the TREB/OREA makes it too easy to become a realtor. Why do they do that?

Money dogs. Money.

Check out the fees table at http://realestateagentlicences.com/licensing/ontario/. All that money paid by realtors funneling into TREB/OREA coffers. Direct your fury at TREB/OREA. The TREB for example are the dirty dogs fighting tooth and nail to keep their monopoly on the MLS data and how real estate businesses use it via a dog fight with the Competition Tribunal for nearly a decade (see http://www.bnn.ca/real-estate/video/treb-appeal-a-stall-tactic-toronto-lawyer~921575)

Now are there dirty dog realtors? Of course there are dogs. There are dirty dogs in every profession. For example dirty buyer agent dogs double-ending deals while also providing their buyers information about competing offers. Or dirty dogs who refuse to show their clients FSBO properties because it is “too much work” or worse “it impacts their broker-based business”. Or dirty dogs who when you ask a reasonable question like “Do the sellers own the 2 condo parking spots or merely have exclusive rights to them?” come back with “Why would I answer that?”

The first dirty dog tactic can easily be solved by the OREA prohibiting double-ending. It will happen eventually. No excuse for not preventing it.

The second dirty dog tactic is tough to prevent via regulation. Buyers need to be looking for FSBO properties on realtor.ca on their own and questioning their agents when they are not presented. Drop them quickly to the curb if you don’t like the answer or better add a clause to your buyer agreement that if you find a house on your own without any guidance from your buyer agent they will not be entitled to any commission. I know from experience that any noble realtor will have no issue with such a clause.

And the third dirty dog tactic … well ok … those ones require a choke collar.

But I also believe dirty agent dogs are just as rare as dirty mechanics, teachers, or any other profession. And meanwhile there are very noble realtor dogs trying to provide the market with very useful, cost-effective realty services for the masses. ComFree for example (and no I don’t work for them but have used them in the past). I am sure there are others.

And there will always be a place for noble full-service realtor dogs in the residential real estate market. Some people want competent, noble, and expert guidance, time-savings, etc when buying/selling real-estate. And an open and honest free market alone should result in realtor fees of an acceptable rate for all parties.

I also believe training for realtors needs to be increased while limiting the number of available training spaces in order to reduce the number of Toronto realtors over the long term. As opposed to the short term which may reduce their numbers as a result of this housing correction. One or two years of training and make it tough to properly reflect its professional and important status: realtors greatly influence the largest buying/selling decision most people make in their lifetimes. Add extensive learning material on building codes, home construction, zoning bylaws, etc. I dunno. But think up stuff if for no other reason than you don’t need or want 48,000 realtors in Toronto. Too many dogs chasing too few cats results in dubious behavior.

But there is no excuse for the BS the TREB is spouting in defense of its court case against the Competition Tribunal. Dogs point you back-end towards the TREB/OREA and save your s*** for them.

In the meantime recognize that the vast majority of realtors are noble dogs just trying to make a living. And a lot of them could be out of a job if this downturn extends for any length of time. Real people with real families out of a jobs dogs. And that is after them paying all those ridiculous fees to Hudak and company.

That’s nothing to bark at.

#33 Greg on 11.03.17 at 8:04 pm

#29 akashic record on 11.03.17 at 7:50 pm

In fact, immigration for the purpose of growing the labor force artificially slows down and blocks the transformation from mostly human labor based economy to automated, robotics economy.

——————-

How does bringing in more highly educated immigrants than the native-born population result in less automation. Please spell it out for me. I am all ears.

#34 tom on 11.03.17 at 8:04 pm

Anyone else worried about the flattening yield curve?

way too heavy in equities right now..

time to trim?

#35 Ace Goodheart on 11.03.17 at 8:23 pm

Here’s one thing you CAN believe about real estate. The Mils (Millennials) for the most part don’t own it.

What happened the last few years is the equivalent of a herd of cattle trying to fit through a very small gate. A few made it, with a lot of trouble. The rest of the herd is still waiting.

Most of these kids did not buy houses. Only the most fortunate amongst them (or most unfortunate if this blog can be believed) actually managed to purchase a very expensive, highly leveraged house.

The rest, including a large number of young professionals (lawyers, pharmacists, accountants, tradespersons, etc) are still living with their parents.

How do I know this?

I am in the peculiar role of being associated with a group of them through one of my business ventures. Mils are “chain socializers” meaning that if you talk to about ten of them, you “know” several hundred. They are the most social people I have ever met.

From this small group of rather diversified millennial talent, I have determined that these kids are for the most part patiently living in their parents’ basements and spare bedrooms, saving like squirrels in autumn and apparently very angry about things like low interest rates (this is why, according to most of them, none of them can afford a house).

These are the smartest kids I’ve ever met.

The rest of us really have no idea what is coming down the pipe with these mils. They are not dumb. I guess they couldn’t be, considering what they are up against.

What is it that they say about evolution……

#36 saskatoon on 11.03.17 at 8:24 pm

has the fed even actually started to unwind its balance sheet?

#37 Victor V on 11.03.17 at 8:44 pm

Real estate regulator freezes bank accounts of North York Re/MAX brokerage

https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/11/02/north-york-remax-brokerage-has-accounts-frozen.html

In a rare move, Ontario’s real estate regulator has frozen the bank accounts of a North York Re/MAX brokerage after an inspection turned up financial irregularities at Re/MAX Right Choice Inc.

It has been more than six years since the Real Estate Council of Ontario (RECO) issued a freeze order, the agency said on Thursday.

Freeze orders are invoked against brokerages to prevent them from improperly withdrawing the deposit money consumers put down when they buy a home, said a notice from RECO on Thursday.

Brokerages are not allowed to use the deposits or the agent commissions, also usually held in trust, for other purposes.

Re/MAX Right Choice Inc. is located on Yonge St. near Steeles Ave.; the brokerage did not return calls from the Star left with its answering service. The brokerage is owned by Jalil Hajimir, who also owns a home in Richmond Hill and another in Markham.

#38 Smoking Man on 11.03.17 at 8:53 pm

Got to tell you working sucks. I’m into a gig first week of four before heading south. I’m burnt out. Being off for so long has really fd me up. And I’m only doing 6 hour days till they finaly get me a computer where I can do some wizard work.

I’ve already figured out the solution. Now I’m getting buck fifty an hour. Do I milk it for 3 more weeks or deliver in two days and get the hell out of wierdo land down town Toronto . I noticed today in one block from Turner Investments.

Should I pay the boys a visit. Show Ryan and Doug how it’s done.
Only if I’m invited.

Vampire code.

#39 Tony on 11.03.17 at 8:53 pm

Re: #8 Angry Forex Trader on 11.03.17 at 5:59 pm

A fifty cent loonie may take a couple of years but by around September of 2018 we should see a 65 cent loonie.

#40 Tony on 11.03.17 at 8:54 pm

Re: #36 saskatoon on 11.03.17 at 8:24 pm

They never will.

#41 };-) on 11.03.17 at 8:59 pm

Really?

While I am anticipating at least a bit of a “correction” and, on top of it, some additional adjustment due to the new mortgage qualification stress test rules, things seem to be rolling along quite oblivious to what is reported here on this blog.

Yes there has been some typical seasonal pull back, but not nearly as much as you might think.

Maybe some of the demand that might otherwise hit the market next quarter (1st of 2018) is being pulled forward to this last quarter of 2017 as some buyers try beat having to qualify under the new stress test rules. We’ll see next quarter (1st of 2018) if the numbers tumble.

That said I expect we will see some pull back for one reason of another and I welcome it.

Too many entry buyers are being priced out of the market. Clearly real estate prices are out of sync with reality. Without 1st time buyers we’re screwed.

Like politics lately, house porn is all about celebrity, putting on a airs – promising more than delivering.

Money can’t buy happiness and neither can granite, stainless and hardwood.

#42 For those about to flop... on 11.03.17 at 9:03 pm

Another recent sale to report.

This house sold four days ago.

2816 w 30th ave Vancouver.

Asking 3.88

Sold 3.6

Tax assessment 4.3

I’ll find some more with my fancy new tool.

Garth always said he would update my capabilities after 3000 Pink Snow posts…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2816-w-30th-avenue

#43 Tony on 11.03.17 at 9:03 pm

Re: #16 Bob Dog on 11.03.17 at 6:35 pm

Poloz would never raise interest rates but they made him do it at the G20 meeting in London, England a while back. No more meetings means no more interest rate increases.

How many times have we heard that this year? — Garth

#44 Usually right on 11.03.17 at 9:07 pm

Garth, there might be a 0.25% added at the US Fed rate but that will be it. Yellen is getting tossed out and Powell or someone of a similar philosophy is getting tossed in.

This means no more US Fed rate hikes in 2018. None. I wish I was wrong, but sadly, I’m usually right.

You’re wrong. — Garth

#45 Jacinda on 11.03.17 at 9:12 pm

It’s time. Just do it. Go Canada. Go.

#46 For those about to flop... on 11.03.17 at 9:15 pm

Recent Sale Report.

Here is a house that sold 13 days ago.

2789 24th ave Vancouver.

Asking 2.79

Sold 2.61

Tax assessment 3.0

No calamity,but not like the good Ol days…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2789-w-24th-avenue

#47 akashic record on 11.03.17 at 9:16 pm

#33 Greg on 11.03.17 at 8:04 pm

#29 akashic record on 11.03.17 at 7:50 pm

In fact, immigration for the purpose of growing the labor force artificially slows down and blocks the transformation from mostly human labor based economy to automated, robotics economy.

——————-

How does bringing in more highly educated immigrants than the native-born population result in less automation. Please spell it out for me. I am all ears.

—-

Canada’s immigration point system is not aimed primarily for “brain-drain”, it brings in mostly trades people and lower skilled temporary foreign workers for “work that Canadians don’t want to do”, as the immigration dogma goes. Other large part of the immigration is bringing in family members, or refugees, where “high education” is not a criteria.

For brain-drain Canada can’t compete with the US, anyway. Even people, like Elon Musk very fast moved on from Canada.

The ideology and practice that it is easier to bring in highly educated immigrants than providing proper education for the “native-born population” is not only cynical, counter-intuitive, but also sets the bar low and eliminates responsibility for everybody involved in the system.

Under these circumstances the “native-born population” is guaranteed to stay stupid, despite taxpayers spending more money on education per capita than in countries that supply Canada with “higher educated” immigrants.

#48 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 11.03.17 at 9:20 pm

The population of Rome expanded rapidly during the rise of the Roman Empire. It peaked with Marcus Aurelius in 180 AD. Thereafter, the crises began and the population declined. The debt per capita kept rising and with it taxation. This became a vicious circle chasing more and more people out of Rome.

Here is a chart of the population of Rome from 3000 BC to 1900 AD:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/inflation-population-are-key-factors/

The birth rate DECLINES as a society prospers for the people no longer need large families as the safety net for the future. This sets the stage for the economic contraction on a grand scale.

#49 rainclouds on 11.03.17 at 9:35 pm

#32 Greg “But there is no excuse for the BS the TREB is spouting in defense of its court case against the Competition Tribunal. Dogs point you back-end towards the TREB/OREA and save your s*** for them.”

U r partially correct.there are some ethical commisioned house sales people. However, My understanding is TREB is funded by the fees collected by their members. It would stand to reason that they would have significant say in the how the mothership operates.

My question to the 48,000 hard working Chrysler driving altruistic commissioned house sales people you sympathize with.

What is the membership doing to ensure TREB (who they fund) toughens entrance requirements and improves disclosure by dropping the appeal of the decision that found them behaving in an anti competitive manner?

A: nothing…….

#50 conan on 11.03.17 at 9:42 pm

I think the “stress test” could be used to target other areas, not just real estate.

https://i.redditmedia.com/uiUZYm4c1xbDujgkerMg6lwt3XlxfD4r6djf48dGYeM.jpg?w=576&s=1520d871f194a468b83da44d1760d762

I still see lots of people not doing well in the new economy. Lets not forget the people who bought RE 6 months, or so, ago.

https://youtu.be/NLlOeGeVih4?t=3

#51 akashic record on 11.03.17 at 9:43 pm

#48 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 11.03.17 at 9:20 pm

The birth rate DECLINES as a society prospers for the people no longer need large families as the safety net for the future. This sets the stage for the economic contraction on a grand scale.

Historically, when economies were based primarily on direct human labor.

This has started to change slowly and expected to go full speed in the most developed industrial countries, where increasing number of people and their skills are less productive than technical solutions for the same task.

Unlike in the past when removing humans from the economy led to economic contraction, replacing humans with more competitive technologies leads to economic growth.

It is arguably the most important shift in the history of mankind.

Ever heard of the Industrial Revolution? Folks said the same dumb things. – Garth

#52 Leo Trollstoy on 11.03.17 at 9:44 pm

US job growth booming!

Canada job growth booming!

Inflation very healthy!

CAD and USD range bound.

Easy life ahead.

Enjoy!

#53 Smoking Man on 11.03.17 at 9:45 pm

DELETED

#54 Ace Goodheart on 11.03.17 at 9:47 pm

RE: “It snowed in Vancouver. And Richmond, Burnaby and Surrey. Yes, in the first week of November . . . What big advantage did they have going for them? Yes, the weather. Oops.”

Vancouver is one of those “should be cold but it isn’t” places that is warmed by an ocean current. The current in question for this particular location is called the North Pacific Current or North Pacific drift.

It’s an odd little thing, not really that large and with interesting behaviour. It originates in South East Asia and travels across the Pacific, hitting BC and specifically Vancouver with warm water, causing both Vancouver’s mild winters, and also being responsible for most of the snow that falls in Whistler.

It’s a “Gyre” current or an “Ocean Gyre”, meaning it is created by something known as Coriolis effect, which is basically the apparent deflection of a surface current (either air or water) through the effect of the rotation of the earth. It is basically a big trans Pacific whirlpool, which picks up warm water in the deep South Pacific, spins it through tropical South East Asia, and then tosses it back across the ocean into the Western edge of North America, handily hitting Vancouver and creating this sexy micro climate found nowhere else in the world.

Gyre currents differ from the “big momma” Gulf Stream current that keeps Europe and the UK toasty warm through the winter in one key aspect: While the Gulf stream relies on the differences in density between cold, salty water and warm water for its movement, a Gyre current is created entirely by wind patterns.

In the case of the North Pacific Drift, it is created by wind patterns known as the Prevailing Westerlies or the Anti Trades. These winds tend to be strongest in the winter months and weakest in the summer. Reason being the difference in pressure. This pressure difference of course also drives our jet stream, which separates the cold, northern air masses from the warm, southern air masses.

As we know, as the poles warm, there is less pressure difference between the cold, northern air and the warm, southern air. There is also less of a jet stream, and the jet stream gets all wavy and hard to predict. Summer and winter break down and we get strange weather patterns.

Less pressure difference in the winter means weaker prevailing westerlies. This translates into a large body of ultra warm water being held in the Southern Pacific, unable to be circulated North as there is not enough wind to drive the North Pacific Drift current. This large body of warm water is often referred to as an “Ocean Blob”.

Result: Snow in Vancouver. In November. Without that warm southern ocean water, Vancouver is basically Newfoundland.

#55 Snow on 11.03.17 at 9:52 pm

Snow? Pfff….

If it snows in Vancouver, we hit the slopes with our skis, snowboards and snowshoes.
Heck, the super rich here tend to use helicopters to go skiing.

It’s not the burden that it is in the east of this country.
(Although admittedly, we do panic when there is ice on the roads or side walks — Lamborghinis are twitchy on ice.)

#56 Lost...but not leased on 11.03.17 at 9:53 pm

This pathetic blog is NOT going to the dogs…that’s 2 dog free photos on consecutive days.

(or is that yellow stain on the post a dog marking its turf, does that count?..need a T2 committee..

#57 Mark on 11.03.17 at 9:54 pm

“For brain-drain Canada can’t compete with the US, anyway. Even people, like Elon Musk very fast moved on from Canada.”

I don’t see why not. But employers need to step up and employ the talent that already exists in Canada. The OSPE tells us that 2/3rds of Canada’s qualified engineering talent cannot even find jobs in their field. ( https://www.ospe.on.ca/public/documents/advocacy/2015-crisis-in-engineering-labour-market.pdf) Why is that? Yes, excessive immigration is a chunk of it, but also, Canadian employers not being willing to properly invest in credentialed personnel and productivity is another significant root cause.

Canada educates more than enough talent. But when top talent graduates, they hit a brick wall as the Canadian employers just aren’t hiring in any meaningful numbers. And when they do hire, the employers typically are aiming much closer to the bottom of the classes with the sort of compensation they have on offer. Leaving a whole chunk of very top notch people out of luck and either departing for the States if they can find something there, or significantly, into unemployment or underemployment. Another problem Canada’s engineers face is that employers have some sort of irrational preference for re-hiring their previous interns, rather than considering the applicant pool in good faith for aptitude and intelligence — internships typically are something that the lower end students, struggling with their studies and finances would take — the high end students often have scholarships, good grades, summer research appointments with professors, and typically aren’t interested in internships that would delay their graduation and entry into the ordinarily well paid full-time permanent workforce.

#58 Last of the Baby Boomers on 11.03.17 at 9:56 pm

Wow. You got to see this! And we thought it was just Air BnB that was contributing to the bubble in Vancouver Real Estate. It turns out there are multiple equivalents of Air BnB in other nations/languages that CRA needs to include in their tax avoidance audits. We need way more CRA auditors skilled in multiple languages and internet searches to drain this boil.

http://www.jtlg.ca/index.php?op=category&cid=5

#59 Smoking Man on 11.03.17 at 9:57 pm

I made a bet with a blog dog. Look at this post. It’s getting deleted. She said no it’s not that bad.

Won a 10 buck bet and my bar tab. Should have made the bet more serious.

I’m not Harvey Winestien.

A young chick who wants to learn forex . And she will no strings attached. I’m conservative.

I hate libtard hypocrisy.

#60 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.03.17 at 10:01 pm

They’re raising rates and unwinding liquidity while bonds, equities, debt and RE are in the largest bubble the world has ever witnessed – and they’re doing it in a deflationary environment… Lol This is a controlled demolition of the fiat monetary system…

Now Blankfein says he sees bitcoin being a part of the “new world”

^ read between the lines.

https://socioecohistory.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/theeconomist-phoenix_get_ready_for_world_currency_by_2018.jpg

#61 Tony on 11.03.17 at 10:03 pm

Re: #44 Usually right on 11.03.17 at 9:07 pm

I think they’ll be cutting interest rates in America in the second half of next year.

#62 MF on 11.03.17 at 10:03 pm

#47 akashic record on 11.03.17 at 9:16 pm

“The ideology and practice that it is easier to bring in highly educated immigrants than providing proper education for the “native-born population” is not only cynical, counter-intuitive, but also sets the bar low and eliminates responsibility for everybody involved in the system.”

-The issue is more complex than that.

For one, a lot of foreign training is not at the same level of rigor as its Canadian equivalent. Canadian medical schools are an example. They are very strict in who they let in, and strict in who they graduate/let practice here in Canada.

“Under these circumstances the “native-born population” is guaranteed to stay stupid, despite taxpayers spending more money on education per capita than in countries that supply Canada with “higher educated” immigrants.”

-I don’t think it’s about keeping people stupid at all. Miles from it. Any time we have had a government so much as hint at letting foreign trained immigrants practice right away, there is a huge backlash by the native population. This is because, like you said, we equate our tax dollars with training of Canadian students for work in Canada at Canadian standards. Parents of graduates and graduates of Canadian institutions themselves complain that they are shut out of the job market unfairly.

Elon Musk is but one success story. Most of my cohort (age 34) who grew up here are still here. Of those who left to study outside Canada, I would say 70% usually end up coming back because they prefer Canadian culture and feel more at home/comfortable here.

MF

#63 Gravy Train on 11.03.17 at 10:03 pm

#32 Greg on 11.03.17 at 7:58 pm
“The vast majority eek out a modest living….”

Is that a Halloween reference? :)

#64 Smoking Man on 11.03.17 at 10:06 pm

Life is great life is short. Say what’s on your mind or your life will be worthless.

Think about going to your grave with one great sentence that you held back. Fear of making a bet.

Not going to be me. Damn the cost.

https://youtu.be/2pg8s3kFJao

#65 genbizx on 11.03.17 at 10:11 pm

remember what twain said about stats…..i get that job numbers went up this qt but measured against 2006 numbers that doesn’t mean we are actually progressing or even back to break-even yet…we need higher rates but what passes for “growth” now is very telling..true we need calm market sentiment but perhaps the fiction should be tempered with reality…we are 1 small shock away from a real crisis….

#66 april on 11.03.17 at 10:14 pm

Flop, I checked out that site you referred me to and it looks like while the youngsters and whoever are buying up the cheap condos the people wanting to sell are having to lower their prices. So those cheap condos are already loosing money unbeknownst to the new buyers. That’s what happens when people don’t do their own research and just take realtors spin for gospel truth. Thank again Flop and thanks Garth for keeping us on track.

#67 For those about to flop... on 11.03.17 at 10:17 pm

Recent Sale Report.

This one went 17 days ago.

4152 w 11th Ave Vancouver.

Originally asking 4.98

Lowered to 4.78 then4.49 then4.28

Sold for 3.96

Tax assessment 4.43.

I will just put them up and you guys can decide if someone got ripped off,or got a bargain…

M43BC

http://patrickweeks.com
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/4152-w-11th-avenue

#68 MF on 11.03.17 at 10:17 pm

23 AGuyInVancouver on 11.03

I know. I always read the national post for their anti Trudeau pro business stance. I ignore outlets like the star.

Pure confirmation bias that I am shameless about :)

MF

#69 Old Ron the Realtor on 11.03.17 at 10:21 pm

For the record. October Sales averaged about 8,000 units for 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012. (Not Counting last years crazy boom.)

So last months 7,100 is respectable, but clearly about 11.5% less than the non Boom running average for the previous 4 years mentioned.

Personally, I like it. Buyers have some choice. Sellers can find another property after they have sold. There is a lot less pressure, and most agents are writing sane contracts, with such fundamental safeguards as conditions on financing and building inspections.

Not too hot, not too cold, just like Goldilocks porridge.

#70 akashic record on 11.03.17 at 10:29 pm

Unlike in the past when removing humans from the economy led to economic contraction, replacing humans with more competitive technologies leads to economic growth.

Ever heard of the Industrial Revolution? Folks said the same dumb things. – Garth

Never heard of it. Must have been before transistors.

What dumb things said the folks?

That deploying machines create more economic growth than using human labor?

#71 Smoking Man on 11.03.17 at 10:31 pm

The old hag of a wife that James keeps point out when I was in a sarcastic moment of humor.

James I’m drinking Jack right now. Your pieces of dog diarea.

I love my wife. Yeah she’s a bit crunky and a bit older. But she’s my babe. Always was. To bad the school system don’t like that kind of love.

It’s freek show dynamics. The road to happiness.

Home School your sons people. So the super girls find a real man to love and give you grand kids.

The boys in school today you have no chance at being a man and something chicks dig.

I would not trade her for anything.

#72 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 11.03.17 at 10:40 pm

#51 akashic record on 11.03.17 at 9:43 pm

Unlike in the past when removing humans from the economy led to economic contraction, replacing humans with more competitive technologies leads to economic growth.
____________________________________________

The main point of post #48 is that reductions in population are incompatible with economic systems that are nothing more than Ponzi schemes. Government debt is the prime example. If the population declines, the debt per capita increases, requiring tax increases which slow the economy.

Without population growth the debt pyramid collapses. Therefore we require immigration to delay the inevitable until it is someone else’s problem. Obviously there is a limit to population growth, for example China and their one child policy. Once the population declines we are doomed.

If the government was debt free this wouldn’t be a problem. Japan’s problem is not that their population is declining, but that they have the world’s highest government debt per capita and as a percentage of GDP. See chart at link below.

http://www.oecd.org/statistics/towards-sustainable-public-finances.htm

#73 Lost...but not leased on 11.03.17 at 10:49 pm

Industrial Revolution….and beyond

3-D printers now building homes..GOOGLE it

So, we have the technology to literally displace not only tradesmen…other futurists claim MD’s will be replaced by robots who will diagnose the problems and refer you to another robot.

Is this the future that many of us will experience in our lifetimes?

If so, what’s the purpose other than a global gov’t under Communist philosophy?

#74 akashic record on 11.03.17 at 10:54 pm

#62 MF

It may have been lost in translation.

My point is that when a country believes that it can not produce enough highly educated people and the solution is to import them from other countries, then the pressure and expectation for training enough natives at sufficient level goes away.

Without the pressure the result suffers.

#75 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.03.17 at 10:55 pm

Current Bitcoin blockchain:

– Centralized mining, check.
– Cashless, check.
– non-anonymity, check.
– dev team captured by the bankers, check.
– futures market to manipulate prices, check
– has the appearance of a decentralized, trustless currency so the masses will voluntarily flock to it when the fiat system breaks, check.

Hope you buy some before bitcoin hits $100,000. LOL

#76 For those about to flop... on 11.03.17 at 10:56 pm

Recent Sale Report.

This one sold 21 days ago.

3744 w 14th Ave Vancouver.

Originally asking 5.28 then 4.88

Sold for 4.5

Tax assessment 4.89

I will try to show something a little more affordable but it might still have a two in front of it…

I was shocked to see a house on Dunbar go for 1.5 yesterday,haven’t seen that sort of pricing for a while.

Maybe Pink Snowman coming…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3744-w-14th-avenue

https://robertogarcia.ca/featured/3744-w-14th-avenue-vancouver-bc/

#77 akashic record on 11.03.17 at 10:57 pm

#72 Democracy Is Mob Rule

These are valid, good points.

#78 Jon on 11.03.17 at 11:11 pm

BC has put foward legislation to end the one year lease loophole where landlords jack rents above mandated limits. About time.

#79 For those about to flop... on 11.03.17 at 11:13 pm

Recent Sale Report.

O.k ,so this one has a slight crust on it ,being sold 42 days ago but 2 million doesn’t go far on the Westside and so the one on Dunbar wasn’t the only lower option that had to come down a fair way.

2885 w18th ave Vancouver.

Originally Asking 2.38 then 2.22 then 2.19 then 2.18

Sold for 2.08

Tax assessment 2.31

Just like a couple of people on this blog,they’re out there…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2885-w-18th-avenue

#80 Rational Observer on 11.03.17 at 11:22 pm

>> Wow. You got to see this! And we thought it was just Air BnB that was contributing to the bubble in ” Vancouver Real Estate. It turns out there are multiple equivalents of Air BnB in other nations/languages that CRA needs to include in their tax avoidance audits. We need way more CRA auditors skilled in multiple languages and internet searches to drain this boil.

http://www.jtlg.ca/index.php?op=category&cid=5

————————————————————–

Correct way to handle this is to revise the municipal tax status of these properties. Residential taxed at 1% /year –> business establishment taxed at 13% / year. That is what they are: businesses. Not very difficult really, the addresses are listed on the ads.

#81 Smoking Man on 11.03.17 at 11:22 pm

https://youtu.be/P5ZJui3aPoQ

When you forget where North is.

#82 conan on 11.03.17 at 11:26 pm

“Japan’s problem is not that their population is declining, but that they have the world’s highest government debt per capita and as a percentage of GDP.” -Democracy Is Mob Rule

I do not have a link, but Japan has good numbers, in regards to assets owned, around the World. These two numbers affect each other. Japan is is stronger then it looks, and it is thinking, and starting, and even changed its Constitution, in order to mobilize against NK, etc.

This NK theater is scary .

#83 My Wife Loves Garth on 11.03.17 at 11:35 pm

Richmond Hill is floundering. Neighbour down the street has had his house on the market for 5 months and won’t lower price. The house has an elevator and 3 car garage.
Thank god I took Garth’s advice and sold near the peak. Sitting on a pile of cash and happily renting in the same hood.

#84 NEVER GIVE UP on 11.03.17 at 11:40 pm

#29 akashic record on 11.03.17 at 7:50 pm
#106 Howard on 11.03.17 at 4:49 am

From yesterday’s discussion…

#197 akashic record on 11.02.17 at 10:43 pm
#187 Newcomer on 11.02.17 at 5:06 pm

#138 Howard on 11.02.17 at 10:47 am
————-
130 million people with virtually no natural resources, energy was forced to create one of the most innovative economies in the world. As the other commenter pointed out already, the 3rd among all countries.

This is within a few decades after being losers in WW2 and getting the atomic bomb dropped on them.

I am pretty sure they will cope with declining population at the emerging age of automation and robotics.

90% of Japanese businesses are medium and small size. That forces Japan to focus on developing automation and robotics for medium and small size businesses, which is not the low hanging part of the industry, other economies are focusing on large business automation, which lends itself easier for the task.

As a result, Japan is already leader of automation and robotics designed specifically for medium and small size businesses, those companies are forced to heavily invest in these new labor saving technologies.

Compare it with Canada, where the same medium and small size businesses build their future in imported cheap labor, which will be increasingly less productive.

It also means that the automation and robotics industry itself is not going to develop here, without pressing local demand for it.

As I said before: immigration is no longer an economic necessity.

In fact, immigration for the purpose of growing the labor force artificially slows down and blocks the transformation from mostly human labor based economy to automated, robotics economy.

This is the division that will separate first class economies from the rest – with no hope to ever catch up if taking the wrong turn now.
==================================
Notice that Japan is rabidly anti immigrant and no nation on earth will condemn them for that, while if a bonafide Canadian born caucasian ever voiced an opinion against high levels of immigration he is a “bigot”.
If you don’t agree with the herd you will be shamed into apologizing for your thoughts.
The points voiced above by others are valid, clever and unusually well thought out.
If we did not have an elite class turning the screws to the working class and small business class for the last 50 years we would still be making babies.
It’s just so “Haaard” to share the wealth when you can take it legally by making friends with elites and government.
Let them eat cake!
Asia has it right. They respect micro,small and medium size business.

#85 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 11.03.17 at 11:45 pm

#59 Smoking Man on 11.03.17 at 9:57 pm
I made a bet with a blog dog. Look at this post. It’s getting deleted. She said no it’s not that bad.

Won a 10 buck bet and my bar tab. Should have made the bet more serious.

I’m not Harvey Winestien.

A young chick who wants to learn forex . And she will no strings attached. I’m conservative.

I hate libtard hypocrisy.
…………………………….

Dude you really know how to party. I was having a great time until you puked on that chick’s dress. Those bouncers should get a sense of humour eh ? How’s yer eye ?

#86 Dan.t on 11.03.17 at 11:52 pm

#37 Victor V on 11.03.17 at 8:44 pm
Real estate regulator freezes bank accounts of North York Re/MAX brokerage

https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/11/02/north-york-remax-brokerage-has-accounts-frozen.html

In a rare move, Ontario’s real estate regulator has frozen the bank accounts of a North York Re/MAX brokerage after an inspection turned up financial irregularities at Re/MAX Right Choice Inc.

It has been more than six years since the Real Estate Council of Ontario (RECO) issued a freeze order, the agency said on Thursday.

Freeze orders are invoked against brokerages to prevent them from improperly withdrawing the deposit money consumers put down when they buy a home, said a notice from RECO on Thursday.

Brokerages are not allowed to use the deposits or the agent commissions, also usually held in trust, for other purposes.

Re/MAX Right Choice Inc. is located on Yonge St. near Steeles Ave.; the brokerage did not return calls from the Star left with its answering service. The brokerage is owned by Jalil Hajimir, who also owns a home in Richmond Hill and another in Markham.

———————————

Of course…I bet once crap really hits the fan, only then, will the industry be exposed for the fraud and scams and lies and deceptive marketing and I also bet it will come out that realturds ( a high number) owned and hoarded multiple properties.

First to see listings, privileged to insider information and able to act and trade and profit from it. Only in the mighty Real Estate industry. Everything goes and government solution is to allow self regulation. What a joke. That is why this party will go on longer that anyone thinks…it is the only industry and pumped in every way by stupid gov policies.

The cost is only full blown housing crisis is many areas of BC, but at least the realtors can flip their multiple properties while young families and the under 35 crowd gets screwed or simply leave. I really hope things change. How is there not more outcry about the real estate industry??

Oh, right 70% own homes and secretly want prices to keep rising, and how many own multiple properties…how many gov officials (think liberal party members who owned 3,4, and more properties and were in charge making housing policies). Just criminal. A whole country of house humpers, house talkers, house lovers, and real estate expert gurus that watch hockey once in a while.

#87 For those about to flop... on 11.03.17 at 11:54 pm

Recent Sale Report.

This one has a crust too ,38 days ago but seeing as I have some of the freshest info in Vancouver for Joe Public,let’s run the numbers.

2918 w 13th ave Vancouver.

Originally asking 4.8 then 4.6 then 3.99

Sold for 3.69

23% less than original ask ,which is another example of why I put the ones back on the market asking for 10-20% than what they purchased for 2016 in my Possible Pinkies Folder.

Tax assessment 4.45

Sold for 17% less than assessment.

Some people pay no attention to the assessment and for others it’s the bible.

One thing is for sure, real estate here has more than 12 disciples…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2918-w-13th-avenue

#88 up up up ....... on 11.03.17 at 11:55 pm

‘LCBO announces first 14 cities to have legal recreational marijuana shops’

……..

and away. Technically, they are all breaking out…Love it when a plan comes together

#89 Democracy Is Mob Rule on 11.04.17 at 12:02 am

#84 NEVER GIVE UP on 11.03.17 at 11:40 pm

If we did not have an elite class turning the screws to the working class and small business class for the last 50 years we would still be making babies.
_______________________________________________

Agreed. Higher taxes cause a lower birth rate.

#90 Lost...but not leased on 11.04.17 at 12:03 am

#80 Rational Observer

Richmond also has similar NON English businesses that will deliver cooked meals, illegal shellfish, etc.

AirBnB most certainly has competition, and I agree…..CRA has got to go far deeper.

#91 Tyronne Mayadunne on 11.04.17 at 12:12 am

Hi Garth
Your last stat about avg detached house price in Richmond Hill dropping 15% since April appears wrong … it is far worse than that.

Avg detached price in April: 1,884,611
Avg detached price in Oct: 1,345,898
Avg detached price drop since Apr: 538,713

This is a drop of 28.5 % since April.

Let me know if I am making a mistake in my calculations.

Thanks
Tyronne

#92 Bob Dog on 11.04.17 at 12:18 am

By advising someone to go into unpayable debt to buy a home priced at 11+ times income, a realtor is committing fraud.

#93 Dave on 11.04.17 at 12:35 am

My question is if the economy is doing great. Wouldn’t that mean people have more money to buy nicer houses?

#94 For those about to flop... on 11.04.17 at 2:02 am

Recent Sale Report.

This one sold 4 days ago.

Well besides the house at 5192 Dunbar st. going for 1.5 million we can add this one to the list as well.

8386 East Blvd.Vancouver.

Originally asking 2.38 then 1.99

Sold for 1.5

Tax assessment 2.44

So one of the cheapest houses in the cherished Westside of Vancouver just sold for 36% less than original ask and 38.5 % less than assessed.

No alarm bells yet?

O.k I’ll keep going…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/8386-e-east-boulevard

#95 the ryguy on 11.04.17 at 2:20 am

#29 akashic record on 11.03.17 at 7:50 pm

_________________________________

Listen up you racist, xenophobic, nationalist probably sexist as well truck driving POS….

Ok the sheep probably aren’t reading anymore, phew. You are 100% correct, but no one wants to hear it. Ive made a very similar case to yours, packing more people into this country isn’t doing anyone any favours. Best you can do is set up your own life & companies so that this hurts you least, but you aren’t the only one that sees these issues fast approaching.

#96 When Will They Raise Rates? on 11.04.17 at 3:37 am

Don’t fight the fed:

https://media.coindesk.com/uploads/2017/07/Y2.jpg

#97 Eyestrain on 11.04.17 at 6:03 am

At no small risk to my mental well-being I have created a summary of the posts du jour. If you prefer your balderdash condensed, send me an Amen.

Houses cost less than a year ago.
Liberals and their taxes are stupid but we should raise taxes on Airbnb hosts so our houses will cost even less.
More jobs were found than lost last month. We should use robots to do the undesirable work that we import immigrants for, but not the work we like to do.
Robots are more productive than people and provide economic growth so mankind can finally prosper without children. Until then our children can learn the 4 R’s on their own with a tablet.
Bitcoins are better than fiat currency because although both are created from nothing, the unidentified Bitcoin creator has decreed that only 21 million bitcoins will be made. Act fast!
Some guesses on forex, interest rates, and how weather works. Incoherent rants by the usual suspects.

#98 Cottingham a bargain on 11.04.17 at 7:52 am

Richmond Hill seems to be on sale if we are to believe stats above and the posts of a few .

Anything between yonge and Hwy7 , the future site of the subway, up to major MACKENZIE drive , west side preferably is an absolute lock in terms of future price appreciation. If you think yonge and sheppard you will get the idea.

Buy now if you can

#99 Peter from Calgary on 11.04.17 at 8:04 am

Yikes. This may not be the soft landing that everyone was hoping for.

#100 A123 on 11.04.17 at 8:11 am

DELETED

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.04.17 at 8:26 am

@#29 akashik record

Japan with the oldest average age in the world.
Japan with a declining population.

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/02/26/its-official-japans-population-is-drastically-shrinking/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjShMWp8qTXAhVB-GMKHXCoCYQQFggYMAE&usg=AOvVaw0wZ8g7WxL2A45QmWpFWuIo

Japan with one of the strictest immigration policies.
1% of the population are immigrants

Japan where they put lifesized dolls at bus stops to make the villages look populated.

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/07/japanese-village-dolls-ageing-population-nagoro&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjF47S89KTXAhUV7GMKHVX6BdkQFgggMAU&usg=AOvVaw3nTVvY4vzxWzaihaNJu-Id

Japan where young couples are given financial incentives to have babies and move out of the cities.

Japan where National debt is out of control.

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-debt-to-gdp&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwia7Mza9KTXAhUV5mMKHeXoA8kQFggcMAI&usg=AOvVaw0KzoFpvIDAnm7s07mleRfY

Japan where robots will fix everything….

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/01/japan-prefers-robot-bears-to-foreign-nurses/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwict9OD9aTXAhVI-mMKHVEUC38QFggqMAU&usg=AOvVaw3eYVzodR6wNlgqxQL6dc4V

Japan, where official racism trumps fiscal reality

That Japan?

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.04.17 at 8:28 am

@#94 Floppie

“No alarm bells yet?

O.k I’ll keep going…

++++++

Awesome. Keep it up.

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.04.17 at 8:43 am

@#58 last of the Baby Boomers

“We need way more CRA auditors skilled in multiple languages and internet searches to drain this boil.”

+++++

Geez I thought I was the last of the Boomers….

Did you notice the majority of the addresses on that particular AirBNB website were Richmond or Burnaby?
The areas of highest foreign investment.
One hopes CRA has auditors able to read those ads.

#104 Ace Goodheart on 11.04.17 at 8:53 am

RE: #95 the ryguy on 11.04.17 at 2:20 am
#29 akashic record on 11.03.17 at 7:50 pm

_________________________________

“Listen up you racist, xenophobic, nationalist probably sexist as well truck driving POS….

Ok the sheep probably aren’t reading anymore, phew. You are 100% correct, but no one wants to hear it. Ive made a very similar case to yours, packing more people into this country isn’t doing anyone any favours. Best you can do is set up your own life & companies so that this hurts you least, but you aren’t the only one that sees these issues fast approaching.”

This is a very large country.

You can really not “pack it” full of people. Everyone will fit.

Most of the land in Ontario is Crown Land. If they need more for development, they can have another general all sale.

People are good. We need more.

Anyone who says we only need people of a certain colour, is an idiot (and a racist)

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.04.17 at 8:54 am

@#32 Greg

“the vast majority of realtors are noble dogs just trying to make a living…..”

+++++

That has NEVER been my experience. Ever.
Commissioned sales. Nothing more. Nothing noble about that “profession”
Shysters, willing to say and do just about anything for that sales commish. And if you have a problem later that you wish to discuss. Answering message, No returned calls, texts, nothing……….you’re dead to them.

Happy HOUSING Crash EVERYONE!

As for you realtors….enjoy bussing to the Credit Counciling office after they repo the leased Chrysler.

#106 Vanrentor on 11.04.17 at 8:58 am

Hey Happy Housing Crash guy

Here are some dirty shyster stories for you to enjoy:

Why are Realturds still a thing?? Give me a wifi connection and a Real Estate lawyer and I am good. They need to disappear like travel agents.

#107 MF on 11.04.17 at 9:12 am

#95 the ryguy on 11.04.17 at 2:20 am
#74 akashic record on 11.03.17 at 10:54 pm

“packing more people into this country isn’t doing anyone any favours. Best you can do is set up your own life & companies so that this hurts you least, but you aren’t the only one that sees these issues fast approaching.”

-I don’t think we are necessarily “packing people in”. There are lots of people who are retiring or passing away because they have entered that part of the cycle of life. Most nations who participated in the post ww2 baby boom have similar population pyramids. It does necessitate some immigration.

A lot of the terms ryguy mentioned in his post at 95 are cheaply thrown at out anyone who criticizes the immigration system.

My belief is the immigration system has to be controlled (no illegals, proper vetting etc.). So far we have been doing a decent job, at least compared to other countries around the world who are failing at it (like Europe).

I’ve mentioned her a few times on this blog, but I will use my girlfriend who is foreign born and in the process of working for her citizenship as an example:

She is proud of her ability to come to Canada, become Canadian, and of our culture. She is westernized, educated, speaks English and is from a peaceful culture. She is prepared to work any job she can, but has dreams of starting businesses or working her way up some company. She also cannot control herself and buys junk all the time lol.

Oh and she is no fan of the Liberals and cannot wait to have the ability to vote them out.

There is no way that type of immigrant is not a good thing for Canada.

MF

#108 Smoking Man on 11.04.17 at 9:17 am

DELETED

#109 Ian on 11.04.17 at 9:48 am

#22 Happy Housing

‘Dirty lying sacks of poo’ !!!!

Coffee running out of my nose this am. This blog just broke a new record.

Please come to our next downtown get together! I have to meet the legendary HHCE.

#110 Dharma Bum on 11.04.17 at 9:54 am

Basic thought: over the next six months don’t believe anything you read about real estate. – Garth
——————————————————————–

“The truth knocks on the door and you say, “Go away, I’m looking for the truth,” and so it goes away. Puzzling.”
― Robert M. Pirsig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry Into Values

“Life is more or less a lie, but then again, that’s exactly the way we want it to be.”
― Bob Dylan

#111 Ian on 11.04.17 at 9:59 am

#36 SK

Re: US Fed balance sheet

Good question. We were talking about this two weeks ago on here and the data does not show them doing this yet, despite Yellen’s big press conflab about it.

That’s the one of the key questions for Mr Powell: what does he intend to do?

I think they have to start dripping it back into the market. And that will definitely put upward pressure on yields.

#112 Ace Goodheart on 11.04.17 at 10:02 am

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-03/tesla-sparks-fresh-cash-concerns-after-model-3-rollout-stumbles

I had said bankrupt by December. I might have to revise my outlook to bankrupt by February 2018.

Looks like they spent $10 billion to build 222 cars, and have $3.5 billion or so left.

Cars are being built in an old GM factory in SoCal.

This is the typical dot.com bubble stock. Lots of hype, flash and very bold statements about what they are going to do. On the ground things are different. Largest publicly traded company to never have positive cash flow or earn a profit. Cannot mass produce the product that it wants to sell.

At current levels, they are spending roughly US$ 10 million to build a car, and selling that car for US$35,000.00

Granted they appear to be very nice cars.

#113 Ian on 11.04.17 at 10:04 am

#43 Tony
#44 Ususally Right

The two of you are on crack. You’re now rivalling Mark for nonsensical blithering.

#114 Renter's Revenge! on 11.04.17 at 10:10 am

#97 Eyestrain on 11.04.17 at 6:03 am

Amen.

#115 For those about to flop... on 11.04.17 at 10:19 am

Recent Sale Report.

This one went 8 days ago.

3528 w 12th ave. Vancouver.

Originally asking 2.38

Just sold for 2.2

Tax assessment 2.6

Still high for the average guy , but another example of how the lower hanging fruit on the Westside is starting to rot…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3528-w-12th-avenue

#116 Asterix1 on 11.04.17 at 10:29 am

#91 Tyronne Mayadunne on 11.04.17 at 12:12 am
Hi Garth
Your last stat about avg detached house price in Richmond Hill dropping 15% since April appears wrong … it is far worse than that.

Avg detached price in April: 1,884,611
Avg detached price in Oct: 1,345,898
Avg detached price drop since Apr: 538,713

This is a drop of 28.5 % since April.
___________________________________________

Garth was giving stats in regards to year over year change.

Your stats are from the highest peak (April) to October.

These Richmond Hill prices are still WAY overpriced. Its Richmond Hill for crying out loud, not la Côte d’Azur!

#117 For those about to flop... on 11.04.17 at 10:50 am

Recent Sale Report.

This aesthetically challenged house sold 13 days ago.

Originally asking 3.59 then 3.49 then 2.99

Just sold for 2.7

Tax assessment 3.54

So 25% less than original ask and the best part of 24% less than assessed.

The surprising thing for me with the last couple of days of research is that the houses that have started to go for under 2 million on the Westside.

Up until a year ago people were paying the same sort of money for these Junkers on the Eastside which is another example of why my Pink Pumpkin cases in my neighborhood are rotting on the shelve.

As a investment it makes a lot more sense to pay 1.5 million,like for the house on Dunbar or the one on East Boulevard than it does to pay 1.3 in East Van for the same type of house.

West will always be best…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2403-w-37th-avenue

#118 NoName on 11.04.17 at 11:02 am

#47 akashic record on 11.03.17 at 9:16 pm

Canada’s immigration point system is not aimed primarily for “brain-drain”, it brings in mostly trades people and lower skilled temporary foreign workers for “work that Canadians don’t want to do”, as the immigration dogma goes. Other large part of the immigration is bringing in family members, or refugees, where “high education” is not a criteria.

You are so wrong… do you even know what you are talking about? You have know idea how many post-secondai edcated people i know are doing trades jobs, just for simple reason, pay is better. A big majority of immigrants is well educated, not like me with 9 and half years of education…

Older gov. study but you’ll get a picture.

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/pdf/research-stats/education-summary.pdf
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/research/education.asp

#119 Just your friendly neighborhood Dissident on 11.04.17 at 11:09 am

Just have to share this. A brilliantly written piece about fitting in to white, male corporate culture in Toronto by a girl I realize I went to high school with. She was a dance major-turned lawyer. And now a very talented contributor to the Globe and Mail.

Once again, I’d like to poke a hole in the myth that there is no racism or sexism in the work place. There is. Here’s your proof, straight from the mouth of a black woman.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/hadiya-roderigue-black-on-bay-street/article36823806/?arc404=true

This is a blog about money, finances, the economy and real estate (plus dogs). Don’t bother posting such material again. — Garth

#120 For those about to flop... on 11.04.17 at 11:09 am

The Orange Orangutan really does hang out at the top of the tree…

M43BC

“How Does Trump’s Wealth Compare to Other U.S. Presidents?

It’s no secret that President Donald Trump is wealthy. He claims he has “very little debt” and that his company has “tremendous cash flow.” Setting aside whether or not those things are true, how does Trump’s personal net worth compare to other U.S. Presidents? Is he really the richest person to ever hold the office?

Top Ten Richest U.S Presidents

1. Donald Trump (Republican – from 2017), $3,500M

2. George Washington (None – 1789–1797), $580M

3. Thomas Jefferson (Democratic-Republican – 1801–1809), $234M

4. Theodore Roosevelt (Republican – 1901–1909), $138M

5. Andrew Jackson (Democratic – 1829–1837), $131M

6. James Madison (Democratic-Republican – 1809–1817), $112M

7. Lyndon B. Johnson (Democratic – 1963–1969), $108M

8. Herbert Hoover (Republican – 1929–1933), $82M

9. Bill Clinton (Democratic – 1993–2001), $75M

10. Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic – 1933–1945),66M ”

https://howmuch.net/articles/top-25-united-states-presidents-by-net-wealth

#121 Dogman01 on 11.04.17 at 11:18 am

The ideas on this blog just keep coming.

#29 akashic record on 11.03.17 at 7:50 pm

Precisely, Switzerland, Israel Japan, all have a bright future positioned for the coming technological revolution. Per Capita GDP (wealth) will be through the roof. The Citizens will be healthy, wealthy and happy.
Those nations that become population bombs will be the opposite, chaos, low per capital wealth, no employment, social unrest, declining education. Malthusian hell-holes.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jobs-immigration-automation-ai-1.4383788

See Doug Rowat’s October 21st, 2017 I, Advisor http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/10/21/i-advisor/

BOTZ is the future.

#122 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.17 at 11:18 am

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.04.17 at 8:43 am
@#58 last of the Baby Boomers

“We need way more CRA auditors skilled in multiple languages and internet searches to drain this boil.”

+++++

Geez I thought I was the last of the Boomers….

Did you notice the majority of the addresses on that particular AirBNB website were Richmond or Burnaby?
The areas of highest foreign investment.
One hopes CRA has auditors able to read those ads.
————–
That’s why my kid’s taking Mandarin rather than French.
Gotta go with the times.

#123 AGuyInVancouver on 11.04.17 at 11:19 am

#117 Flop
The $1.3 million East Van house is likelyto be someone scraping enough together to buy a home. The $1.5 million Dunbar house is likely a builder hoping to throw up a tacky marble clad palace to sucker some Chinese dude into buying.

#124 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.17 at 11:27 am

VanCity CU did a survey on seniors who owned their home.
Many complaint that they were harrassed by their kids to hand over the loot.
They are afraid of the fruits of their loins.
Money brings out the monster in us.

#125 AB Boxster on 11.04.17 at 11:31 am

Major builder bankruptcy in Alberta.

Banks, trades and new home purchasers about to get royally screwed by massively wealthy Reid family up in Edmonton where they still build new homes, and take in much cash. Calgary? Screw em.

http://calgaryherald.com/business/local-business/court-appoints-receiver-for-reidbuilt-homes-as-alberta-faces-housing-glut

And the new B20 leg has not even hit yet.

Feds will of course sacrifice any other part of the country to stop the madness in YVR and YYZ.
Maybe massive amounts of ganja being consumed will help. Right Millennials?

Or maybe Julie Payette can ‘splain how science will make it all better.

#126 rainclouds on 11.04.17 at 11:34 am

Flop,

Awesome reporting from the trenches. Love the “new tool” at your disposal. Highly informative. Cuts through the RE/ Media BS like a saws all on particle board.

Clearly, the world needs more Tasmanian Devils

#127 For those about to flop... on 11.04.17 at 11:37 am

Ian 04 am
#43 Tony
#44 Ususally Right

The two of you are on crack. You’re now rivalling Mark for nonsensical blithering.

/////////////////////////

Well,I did nickname Tony “Two Terms” Baloney after he insisted multiple times that Barack Obama would not win the 2016 election.

In a way he was right…

M43BC

#128 Stone on 11.04.17 at 11:45 am

#32 Greg on 11.03.17 at 7:58 pm
A few weeks ago I promised to argue for the following assertion at some point:

“Realtors are involved in a noble profession and play a useful role in the sale of residential real estate.”

Since then I have seen Happy Housing Crash Everyone say:

“Yes there are very good and honest realtors.”

——

I call bulls__t!

As for HHCE, he just had a momentary lapse of judgement. That, or he was in a drunken stupor when he wrote that.

Outside of a very tiny negligible fraction of a percentage, we all know what the remaining percentage of realtors are and no amount of saying the opposite will convince anyone of sound mind differently. Shysters they are.

#129 rainclouds on 11.04.17 at 11:52 am

Imagine if the TREB/Competition Board 8 YEAR SAGA was over and we all had real data nationally.

Back to “the decision”

Latest iteration has been almost a year now, waiting for yet another inevitable ruling against TREB, whilst the learned colleagues ponder the same arguments in their cloistered digs unaffected by pesky concerns like, economic ruin for deceived consumers.

Presumably the legal wonks have heard of Nova Scotia?

https://www.viewpoint.ca/

Or America?

https://www.zillow.com/

#130 Just your friendly neighborhood Dissident on 11.04.17 at 12:10 pm

#119 Just your friendly neighborhood Dissident on

This is a blog about money, finances, the economy and real estate (plus dogs). Don’t bother posting such material again. — Garth

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

Noted, however, as a former politician representing a population as diverse as Canada/Toronto, you would know that citizens are part of the *economy*, one which does unfortunately favor certain citizens over others, so I think this is very relevant.

“Don’t bother posting such material” – sounds a bit harsh when speaking about a well-written article presented in a respectful manner, versus some kind of rude or hateful post. I’m just surprised, is all. Or maybe I’m not.

Good bye, Emily. — Garth

#131 Ian on 11.04.17 at 12:25 pm

#127 Flop

Crying.

I have tears running down my face. Best morning on this blog ever!

PS the pink hue in your data will darken drastically in 2018. Great job!

M48ON

#132 Long-Time Lurker on 11.04.17 at 12:28 pm

#112 Ace Goodheart on 11.04.17 at 10:02 am
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-03/tesla-sparks-fresh-cash-concerns-after-model-3-rollout-stumbles

I had said bankrupt by December. I might have to revise my outlook to bankrupt by February 2018.

It gets worse. The electric car tax break is going to be debated for ending in Congress. Musk really has to pull a rabbit out of a hat. He could move Tesla to China for lower costs and a big market (they have a huge pollution problem) but who knows how investors are going to react to that. Zero Hedge is following Musk for another perspective. Magic time, Musk!

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.04.17 at 12:56 pm

Ok folks.
Realtor joke time. Please contribute.

Q: How can you tell when a Realtor’s telling the truth?
A: When their lawyer is reading their Will and it begins with, ” I leave nothing of value to my clients….”.

Q: When is a Realtor upset?
A: When their 90 year old client doesn’t qualify for a 30 year mortgage.

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.04.17 at 12:58 pm

@#122 Ponzi P
“That’s why my kid’s taking Mandarin rather than French.
Gotta go with the times.”

******

True. Very true.

#135 Gravy Train on 11.04.17 at 1:01 pm

Bond prices will retreat. Bond rates, and the mortgages they fund, will increase. — Garth

Garth, I could’ve used your help when I was ganged up on by Ace and Floppy last week. :)

#136 Just your friendly neighborhood Dissident on 11.04.17 at 1:13 pm

#130 Just your friendly neighborhood Dissident

I’m like a dog on a bone. Predictably persistent.

#137 n1tro on 11.04.17 at 1:15 pm

Bitcoin going bananas! Not sure why all the hate. Bubblicious? Yes. But if we could go back in our time machines and repeat the housing market for the last 10-15yrs, people wouldn’t buy?!

#138 crossbordershopper on 11.04.17 at 1:31 pm

simply fly to Florida, and start your new business, get some sun, you can get a nice place cheap relative to most places in Canada. Diversify, US$ hedge, to Canadian hedge, Make new source of income, and on and on, yes lower taxes, once trump passes the new tax rules, from lower mid tear canadian family incomes to higher incomes should just go down south.
The canadian investment scene really sucks, just a few financials and a bunch of junior resouce is the entire market, well 80%. 20% are like dollarama, a few weed stocks, a few railroad etc. very small and narrow focused marketplace in Canada. In the US, much bigger and diverse market, and the fee’s are very low.
i ran into a guy who has a million with investors group, i said, dude you pay like $25000 a year in fee’s per year, how can that be, he said, he didnt even pay for the coffee’s but he is reamed by his advisor every year to a huge degree. Canadians, i laugh

#139 For those about to flop... on 11.04.17 at 1:36 pm

135 Gravy Train on 11.04.17 at 1:01 pm
Bond prices will retreat. Bond rates, and the mortgages they fund, will increase. — Garth

Garth, I could’ve used your help when I was ganged up on by Ace and Floppy last week. :)

////////////////////////

Hey Gravy, if you are going to throw me under the bus can you at least put some salt down first so I don’t get too much snow in my bum crack.

Salt might work wonders on the hemorrhoids as well.

You know I didn’t take Ace’s side.

I didn’t really want to get involved until you pulled me into it and I tried to suggest you were both right.

I just merely pointed out that he will continue to do what he feels comfortable with and in his best interests as you will with yours.

Different people have different takes on the markets nowadays.

I have a foot in each camp.

I continue to stuff my tfsa with investments.

I have ceased to buy anything more in my non registered account.

Some would say that is a half baked plan but for me it is better than being flambéd or staying raw…

M43BC

#140 Lost...but not leased on 11.04.17 at 1:49 pm

#125 AB Boxster

Re Major Alberta builder bankruptcy…

In BC…with some exceptions ( ie outlying areas of Metro Vancouver), one doesn’t see builders of this scale for SFH.

New home construction tends to be ” architecturally intense “…which doesn’t lend itself to assembly line methods.

One finds B.C. McMansions show no prejudice…they are built anywhere from the expensive areas down to the working poor areas…or if one was shown just a photo of the home one would not be able to guess where it was located..it could be Vancouver West Side, North Van or Surrey Whalley.

In addition, it would be intriguing to actually determine how many SFH builders exist…seems like its endless.

#141 saskatoon on 11.04.17 at 1:54 pm

#9 Sebastien

you are starting to catch on…

:)

#142 Just your friendly neighborhood Dissident on 11.04.17 at 1:55 pm

Britain raised their rates for the first time in 10 years. Howboudah?

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41846330

#143 Lost...but not leased on 11.04.17 at 2:03 pm

Bitcoin is backed by_______?????

Is Bitcoin the Tesla of fiat currency????
Is Bitcoin a potential Bre-X 2.0

Don’t claim to be an economist per se(thank God)…but we have another currency if not competing, ultimately tied to existing fiat currency.

If push comes to shove…who is gonna win? Yeah sure..this little fiscal tango dance can go on for a while…till the last Bitcoin greater fool is left.

We are not even talking about competing crypto currencies……….

#144 Where's The Money Guido? on 11.04.17 at 2:15 pm

Re: #90 Lost…but not leased on 11.04.17 at 12:03 am
#80 Rational Observer

Richmond also has similar NON English businesses that will deliver cooked meals, illegal shellfish, etc.

AirBnB most certainly has competition, and I agree…..CRA has got to go far deeper.
————————————-
I hope you enlightened the CRA with your info, that would hasten the investigation.

#145 Just your friendly neighborhood Dissident on 11.04.17 at 2:21 pm

This comment section is a real yawn-fest without Screwed Canadian Millennial. I imagine he’s out there somewhere getting jaded and cynical, fighting to conform himself to corporate norms, learning how to like dogs, say sporty-esque things about hockey and cottages, and how not to spill things on his suit. Lol. (Not!)

#146 Lost...but not leased on 11.04.17 at 2:29 pm

#132 Long Time Lurker

Elon Musk is a name that sort floats around in the news..

Until recently, I didn’t pay much attention to the “latest”wealthy genius/wunderkinder we have been blessed with whose alleged mission is to save the world. Probably a good thing I only paid attention just recently and not caught up in the false hope=hype.

The evidence (aka doing even just surficial research) suggests he may be the biggest conman we have seen in recent times ( and that’s amongst a lot of competition). Simply follow his moves, which I have noted in previous posts.

Toyota has apparently the most patents for electric car technology….where are they re: electric car poised to take Musk out(….or for conspiracy theorists..depriving people of the option?)

Travel to MARS lol…..33 million miles away…..with what a Tesla battery?

Like a lot of things ready to crash and burn, he has all the indications of being a major part of a long list.

#147 april on 11.04.17 at 2:40 pm

I don’t remember where I got it from now as it was awhile ago, but it said that the property assessment people were told to assess homes on the high end, that is in the BC anyway???

#148 Ace Goodheart on 11.04.17 at 5:12 pm

RE: “#146 Lost…but not leased on 11.04.17 at 2:29 pm”

I keep running the metrics on Tesla and I don’t understand how anyone thinks that it could have earnings per share that would ever match its market valuation.

They are running three assembly lines out of one old GM factory. They plan to produce 10,000 cars per week on their model 3 line, and charge $35,000.00 US for each car. This is widely believed to be impossible, and the more realistic amount which they should be able to produce would be around 10,000 cars per month in 2018, perhaps rising to 20,000 cars per month in 2019.

The profit margin for 10,000 cars per month looks like this:

https://csimarket.com/Industry/industry_Profitability_Ratios.php?ind=404&hist=1

Pre tax margin for auto manufacturing is between 4-6% industry benchmark. After taxes it is 3-4%. That is normal for the industry. Remember that economy cars cost only around 20% less to produce than luxury cars, but are sold for far less, meaning the profit margin on an economy car is less.

So if you are looking at after tax earnings which would be attributed to each share, and you are building 10,000 model 3’s per month and selling them for $35,000 each, your numbers are 10,000 x 35,000.00 x 0.04 = 14,000,000 per month. Times 12 that gives you $168,000,000 in after tax earnings per year.

Tesla’s market capitalization is 51.08 billion and the share price is $306.00 currently. So even if they are able to produce 10,000 cars per month on one assembly line in one factory, that still only gives earnings per share of approximately one US dollar.

That gives them a price to earnings ratio (if they are producing their 10,000 cars per month) of 306 to 1, which is incredibly expensive, even in bubble tech stock territory.

I am assuming in the above calculations, that their other two product lines (model S and Model X) break even (historically these lines have always lost money, which would reduce the earnings as the model 3 line would subsidise the other two lines).

That is if they are able to build 10,000 cars per month.

Even if Tesla gets up to double 10,000 cars per month, producing what is the anticipated maximum amount of cars for their Fremont plant, that still gives them a price to earnings ratio of 153 to one, which is higher than any other car company (by multiples of a hundred).

Here is an interesting article regarding the production capacity of the Fremont factory:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4080920-400000-tesla-model-3-cars-2018-just-possible

So, it is unlikely that Tesla will ever meet their production goal of 400,000 model 3’s per year at Fremont.

However, if they do, then they would be producing 33,333.00 cars per month. So roughly another 10,000 or so.

Even at the very unrealistic production rate of 400,000 cars per year out of one relatively small factory, you still get a price to earnings ratio of just over 100 to one.

And that is it. That is the absolute best that Tesla can hope to achieve out of its one Fremont facility. Those who know the Fremont facility say it is impossible anyway.

But if everyone is wrong, and Elon manages to do it, Tesla’s price to earnings ratio is still 100 to one.

That is higher than Facebook folks. That is higher than apple, microsoft, Ford, BMW, Google (alphabet), and General Motors.

Even best case scenario, with full production of 400,000 model 3 vehicles per year, Tesla stock is still overvalued by at least half the current share price and probably quite a bit more.

#149 45north on 11.04.17 at 10:46 pm

Ace Goodheart: Result: Snow in Vancouver. In November. Without that warm southern ocean water, Vancouver is basically Newfoundland.

Vancouver BC 49°15’
Gander NL 48°57’

by the way
Ottawa ON 45°25’
hence my name

april: property assessment people were told to assess homes on the high end, that is in the BC

BC Assessment people are told to make assessments that they can defend on appeal