Bad news

On the same day the real estate regulator crashed a GTA Re/Max franchise and froze buyer trust accounts after discovering ‘irregularities”, and buyers in a major downtown condo project learned it was going paws-up, we have new numbers. Hot from the trembling fingers of industry leaders.

Here are the facts: Sales of all kinds of properties in the nation’s (by far) largest market last month plopped 27% from last year – about what was predicted here. Inventory romped higher, and there are now 78% more properties for sale than a year ago. Goodness. The largest decline in sales (almost 30%) came in the detached sector – which was the crown jewel of properties one year ago. In short, condos up, houses down. Average prices holding steady and running 15% below the peak of last April, when the industry told you to buy because prices would go up forever.

Media coverage has been all over the map. Many swallowed the realtor line that October sales proved the bleeding’s been staunched, a floor established, and the bubble is back in business. After all, that’s what the majority of people want to believe – since they took on heroic debt to score property and will be seriously pooched it if tumbles much more.

But that’s naïve. Says realtor Alex Prikhodco, who provided yesterday’s detailed stats: “The market is a flat in the 416 right now because people are buying before OSFI rules kicks in, but from what I’m hearing from mortgage brokers and private lenders, the new rules are gonna crush real estate prices, especially in the stacked mortgage situations. At least that’s the expectation.

“You must be wondering why I’m cheering the crash, eh? I’m cheering the crash because the normal transaction rates are not going to return until the unconditional seller capitulation, which I believe is inevitable.”

Hmm. Capitulation. Is that a realistic view? Will sellers just give up on their greedy, inflated, unrealistic, gouge-the-buyer, windfall expectations and accept prices 15% or 30% below current levels? And how long would that take to unfold?

Beats me. I come here for the bitches. And puppies.

However, it’s hard to see October’s sales increase over September’s disaster as anything other than a dead cat bounce. Sales have rebounded from around 6,000 a month in the summer to just over seven grand for two reasons – seasonality and B20. Deals always multiply in the autumn, so the better comparison is with last year, not the summer. By that measure, the feline is croaked. More consequential is the growing realization among misguided moisters of what comes next – which is the stress test.

Here’s all you need to know about what this week’s stats:

  • Detached house prices fell 2.5%.
  • Condo prices rose 22%.

The same pattern has manifested itself in Vancouver and the Lower Mainland. As word spreads that B20 will mean buyers can finance 20% less house after the start of the new year, there’s a little stampede of pre-approvals and offers now happening. Expect it to continue for the next six weeks as demand is drawn forward from what’s likely to be a brutal 2018.

Most people still have no idea what’s coming. B20 means mortgages, effectively, rise to 5% in January. Meanwhile the Fed will raise its benchmark rate for the fourth time in 12 months in December. The Bank of Canada, as night follows day (and as history has confirmed) will follow suit in the first quarter of the year. Long-term mortgage rates will continue to creep higher, followed by VRMs and secured HELOCs. The combination of higher rates and less credit it toxic to property values. Those rushing to buy now are the greatest of fools.

However, the kids know everything. They have Snapchat.

Finally, here’s Tim Syrianos, the current head honcho dude at the world’s biggest real estate board which, natch, is in Toronto. “Every year we generally see a jump in sales between September and October. However, this year that increase was more pronounced than usual compared to the previous ten years,” he said in a statement to the masses. “While the number of transactions was still down relative to last year’s record pace, it certainly does appear that sales momentum is picking up.”

Now you know why. So does he.

 

 

194 comments ↓

#1 Adam on 11.02.17 at 6:27 pm

first

#2 Happy housing Crash everyone! on 11.02.17 at 6:30 pm

Blacksheep SHYSTER. You don’t compare September sales to October. That is SHYSTER like. You Compare October 2017 to October 2016. Anything else is being a dirty SHYSTER. SHYSTERS try to make it seem that sales increased when the fact is they CRASHED 27%.

I HATE SHYSTERS!

#3 YVRMC on 11.02.17 at 6:31 pm

Carnage to come , glad I sold last October , thanks GT !

#4 IM in C on 11.02.17 at 6:32 pm

Who gets the deposit if the buyer backs out? My understanding is, that the courts will only allow 2-3 % to the seller. Much more than that and it is refunded to the buyer. (This assumes there was not a specific clause in the selling agreement regarding the disposition of the deposit)

#5 yorkville renter on 11.02.17 at 6:32 pm

well… time will tell who’s right. I think it’ll

#6 Happy housing Crash everyone! on 11.02.17 at 6:33 pm

I feel sorry for the men and women realtors who have honor and honestly. Yes there are very good and honest realtors. I hate the number of them who seem like dirty SHYSTERS.

#7 crdt on 11.02.17 at 6:34 pm

Short convo with denizen revealed neighbor cannot sell house due to “changing mortgage rules”… Whoa?

#8 Blobby on 11.02.17 at 6:35 pm

Does Trump replacing yellen (stupid auto correct, stop correcting that), with someone who doesn’t even have education in economics affect what the fed does at the end of this year?

And is it likely to affect things when he takes over?

#9 Mr on 11.02.17 at 6:40 pm

Tim is so objective as always

#10 Bitcoinnaire on 11.02.17 at 6:42 pm

Another day, another all time high for Bitcoin.

$7,000 and a major sell-off as the shorts and the longs got liquidated today. It was beautiful seeing the greedy margin piglets get squashed.

All it takes is iron hands and hold. The people who made the most on Bitcoin are in the majority, those who simply held (or forgot) instead of day trading or chasing derivative coins.

Oh, great article BTW Garth, but I’ll be buying my first 400,000 property in cash next year so I guess this whole lending business doesn’t apply to me. We’ll see first if the CRA accepts my cost-averaged capital gains claims, since there’s no way they’re clever enough to track magic internet money.

#11 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.02.17 at 6:46 pm

Its snowing and chilly in Burnaby right now and the sky is falling in the real estate sector…..how appropriate

#12 Crazy millennial on 11.02.17 at 6:48 pm

Still think it’s gonna take more then a stress test to take down this behemoth of a housing market. Rising interest rates and the stress test will dampen house prices until they finally go stale, or as Garth puts it “slow melt”.
As I’ve stated before, as long as there’s no sudden economic shock, where people lose their jobs. people will continue to pay their mortgages and ride out this slow melt. I know other colleagues who bought properties in Vaughn for a million. Can’t see them selling it for less.

#13 Ian on 11.02.17 at 6:48 pm

Just met Smoking Man and Mike. They do exist, folks, it’s not just a legend!

SM did an fx trading seminar for us too. USDCAD all the way.

Really enjoyed it. Thanks gentlemen

#14 Smartalox on 11.02.17 at 6:50 pm

News release from Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board (GVREB):

“October Sales Exceed Historical Average”

Hmmm. “Sales ‘Better than average'” seems somewhat less hyperbolic than usual. Perhaps they’re running out of superlatives?

The last few months, I’ve been tracking the ‘year to date’ sales figures for 2017 in the statistical reports, and comparing them to year-to-date figures from 2016.

To be fair, sales rates have been increasing over the last few months:

In August, year to date sales of detached homes were down 32%, led by declines of 48% in West Van, and 43% on the Westside and in Richmond.

In September YTD sales decline had moderated, such that the total was down 26% from the previous year, with WestVan down only 45%, Van West 40% and Richmond off by 38%.

Now with October, YTD sales are down only 25% overall, with WestVan only 43% less than last year, VanWest down 36%, and Richmond down 33%.

So sales are picking up, but the region is still on track to see at least 20% decline in sales by the end of the year.

Another interesting signal: looks like there is a ‘triple top’ forming for detached housing on the median price chart (last page of the Stats Package).

http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/REBGV-Stats-Pkg-October-2017.pdf

Triple top… you know what comes next, right?

#15 TheSpangler on 11.02.17 at 6:54 pm

#10 Bitcoinnaire on 11.02.17 at 6:42 pm

You convert any of those amounts to cash yet? A gain ain’t a gain till it’s realised. Can you easily cash out all your bitcoins?

#16 The real Kip on 11.02.17 at 6:56 pm

Over 7,118 sales in October? Hardly a crash, sounds reasonably strong to me. OSFI and B20 bullshit will change little.

#17 Danny on 11.02.17 at 6:56 pm

Just back from visiting Cheektowaga , decent quiet suburb of Buffalo New York. …near creek…excellent condition
Sidesplit…built around 1960…3 bedroom, 2 car garage, brick and siding, 50 foot wide lot…sold for $150,000 US
( $200,000 Canadian ) according to family there …this is typical price.
Now that’s more of decent price for a detached.
Americans can’t believe the prices here in the GTA.
There only comment is that buyers here must be in a state of insanity or panic.
They ask Why…..I had no reasonable answer…..except that houses have become a speculative product….no longer only for shelter.
The greedy …”the BMW owners”…putting pressure on “the Ford owners” just wanting to own a shelter.
Rent is definitely a better way here in Canada.

#18 Mike on 11.02.17 at 7:00 pm

.
Buy Now or be left out foreverrrrrr…
Canadians have enough money and wages to pay whatever-even more than- realtors list at. Up and up in Vancouver!!!

#19 Linda on 11.02.17 at 7:01 pm

Based on the stats provided, anyone who owns a condo right now should put that sucker up for sale to harvest the gains to be had from the ‘buy now or buy never’ crowd. Predatory? Yes – but the whole point of being an adult is that one is responsible for one’s own decisions. As long as the buyer would be deemed mentally competent in a court of law, up to them to do their due diligence.

#20 Smoking Man on 11.02.17 at 7:02 pm

Anything that’s cheaper to own than 2k a month in rent will sell. Everything else. Not so much.

The herd is broke and when Big Macs cost double due to min wage going to 15 they will be even more broke with no hopes of a raise due to TFW and mass migration.

Real estate is going to get ugly as shit in the new year. Try and find a greater fool now or you are toast.

Me I’m heading south in Dec. Destination unknown.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#21 Angry Forex Trader on 11.02.17 at 7:06 pm

Are Canadian dollars in demand worldwide like the US$? What happens when the real estate crashes and the Canadian dollar loses international demand?

MARK’S DEFLATIONARY THEORY told me that post-real estate collapse, Canadian dollars will be in demand to pay off debt, but is that true?

What makes one not walk away from their debt, or to withdraw their remaining HELOC line of credit and live out of Canada for a few years to avoid debt collectors?

Poloz is a piece of dog poo to have not told anyone that he was only hiking then remaining bearish for the rest of the year.

Current oil and metal prices are supporting the loonie for now, but once oil falls below $50bbl, I predict a loonie in the US$0.74-74.8888 range.

Why the hell is the Canadian dollar so volatile? From 71 cents in May 2017 to 83 cents in September, now back to 78 cents.

#22 Fiendish Thingy on 11.02.17 at 7:19 pm

My prediction for the sequence of seller capitulation:

1) Sellers who have owned their home for 10+ years, especially those with no mortgage, and need to sell due to downsizing, moving, divorce etc. They won’t mind taking 10-15% loss from the peak

2) Flippers, who bought recently, sunk 10s to 100s of thousands in renos and begin to fear they will lose the 20-25% in profit they’d hoped for, and will dump condos at their cost; the now fear-based market will be left to:
3) recent buyers who have to sell for the same reasons as #1. The myth of “RE always goes up” will be shattered, as these sellers’ listings sit for months, only to sell at 30-40% off asking price.

Wheeee!

#23 Engineer on 11.02.17 at 7:19 pm

#8
No. Economics is a useless degree. Most who take that end up working as bank tellers or some other menial job.

#24 Engineer on 11.02.17 at 7:21 pm

#21
Because it’s a useless currency.
What does Canada make and sell to the world? Other than subsidized planes? Nothing.
It’s a housing superpower. Or so it thinks hahahaha

#25 Smoking Man on 11.02.17 at 7:24 pm

#13 Ian on 11.02.17 at 6:48 pm
Just met Smoking Man and Mike. They do exist, folks, it’s not just a legend!

SM did an fx trading seminar for us too. USDCAD all the way.

Really enjoyed it. Thanks gentlemen
…..
Don’t tell James.

#26 Stone on 11.02.17 at 7:25 pm

#15 TheSpangler on 11.02.17 at 6:54 pm
#10 Bitcoinnaire on 11.02.17 at 6:42 pm

You convert any of those amounts to cash yet? A gain ain’t a gain till it’s realised. Can you easily cash out all your bitcoins?

——

Been wondering the same. Everyone I know who own them haven’t cashed out a penny of it. I would think you’d at least take back your original investment if the returns are so magnificent. That way, if something goes bad, you’re at least even. Sounds too much like a Bernie Madoff play. Could all be legit but I’ll pass, thanks.

#27 bubu on 11.02.17 at 7:26 pm

The prices didn’t go down when the mortgages went from 40 years back to 25 which was a bigger change than the new B-20…. why we would see something else now… they will be flat for a long time… look at Edmonton and Calgary… with few exceptions most of the expensive houses are in the market for years.. owners will not lower the prices…. they will rent them or not sell until they get what they want….

#28 Westsider on 11.02.17 at 7:27 pm

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/foreign-buyers-not-swayed-by-15-per-cent-housing-tax-data-show/article36805976/
Lucky that the foreign buyers have such an insignificant
effect on prices in Vancouver!!!

#29 John B on 11.02.17 at 7:28 pm

What is the major Toronto condo project that has failed, referenced in the first paragraph here?

#30 BlogDog123 on 11.02.17 at 7:30 pm

Hey HHCE is back!
We missed your anti-shyster rants. Kinda repetitive, but you speak the truth that needs to be told…

#31 millmech on 11.02.17 at 7:31 pm

#18 Mike
Why buy, the overstretched homeowner who can not afford food after the mortgage will rent out suites in his house for a very nice rate. It is like for every house two new cheap suites come up on the market. Keep buying people, it only lowers the going rent!
Renting Rocks!

#32 Nonplused on 11.02.17 at 7:32 pm

Housing is very over extended in Canada and will correct. Everyone in the world (except those in Vancouver and Toronto) seems to know this and writes about it in their news papers and on Zerohedge.

However, I do not believe there will be any meaningful deflation other than said correction, however dramatic it will be. Central banks have 100 years of experience achieving their stated primary goal, stable prices, which they mean to be an inflation rate of about 2%. But even that “relatively modest” inflation rate means that the price of everything doubles every 35 years.

Does this mean the price of an average home in Vancouver will go from $1.2 million or whatever it is to $2.4 million in 2052? No, it is possible that the Vancouver market is 2-3 times overvalued. So if we use 2 times, a house in Vancouver should maybe be worth $600,000 now. But even if the market crashes that dramatically, back to $600,000, the house will still go up to $1.2 million in 2052. All that has happened in these bubble markets is that the current price has accelerated well ahead of inflation. But inflation will still be there.

And of course, anyone who knows anything knows that the real inflation rate is well north of 2% for anything important, and they make “hedonistic” adjustments to the price of everything they put in the measure. Steak goes to $30/kg? Weight steak less and weight turkey (which nobody really wants to eat) more. A new Mustang in 1967 when it came out was less that $4,000, now you can’t get one for less that $40,000. Oh sure the new one has power seats and and air bag, but how often do you use those? The car-like nature of the Mustang has not improved at all, in fact the old ones were probably better, in the fact that they produced the objective (a cool motorized seat) for far less investment of resources than the new ones do. Either Mustang, the 1967 one or the 2017 one, got you from point A to point B in about the same time. The 2017 one just costs a heck of a lot more. And the 2052 Mustang will cost even more again. The 2052 Mustang will probably be able to drive itself. But who cares? Most people would probably still rather drive the 1967 version, which is why one in good shape is worth more than a new one.

They do the same thing with computers. I haven’t noticed any additional functionality in my computer in 15 years, but there are 4 processors in there now doing what 1 processor could do with XP, so they are saying from an inflation point of view my new computer costs 1/4 as much as my old one did. No, it didn’t. It cost the same, and I was forced to upgrade because they put so much bloat-ware on there it now needs 4 processors to do the job 1 could do before.

Does the new iPhone X really do that much more than an iPhone 5 could do years ago? Other than mis-identifying your face (which is scary) the answer is no. It’s still a phone/camera/media device. But the new X costs $1000! Incredible! Who can afford $4000 to outfit your typical family with these things? But of course there are “hedonistic” adjustments to be made because you are no longer attached to your $20/month land line. I will admit there is some value in that, but realistically probably not much. The conversation can probably wait. And I don’t find much value in Snapchat or Facebook photos of whatever you just ordered for dinner. I know what dinner looks like. (So I guess that makes me lucky.)

When I bought my last tube style TV, it was an incredible for the time 32 inches, and $350 bucks. Now I have a 52 inch TV that costed $1,000 and there is literally nothing on but NFL protests and commentary about NFL protests. What did I gain? Well, according to the people who calculate inflation, I got my square inches of screen for $2.70 each with the new TV but they were $2.90 per inch for the old TV so my inflation went down. But I still paid $1000 instead of $350. And the damn $350 TV still works! Whereas I’ve had to recycle 1 of the $1,000 TV’s because the power supply fried itself and was too expensive to replace.

The long and the short of it is that it is important to understand the process of inflation and also the diminishing returns on technology. Cars don’t actually provide any more utility than they did 40 years ago, but they cost a whole heck of a lot more. TV’s don’t provide anymore entertainment than they did in the 70’s but they cost a whole lot more and you need cable service to get any shows worth watching. Computers are more powerful in that they can process a lot more cycles per second but they haven’t done anything new in 15 years. You health care costs are going up. Your kid’s education is going to cost a lot more than yours did. Taxes are higher, but there has been no appreciable increase in government services you are driving on the same road that has been there for 50 years. But you need hugely larger sums of money for all these things and we can only assume that in 35 years you will need at least twice as much money again.

The reason for this all is simple. Creating inflation allows governments to pay back their debt at half the real value they borrowed it at. Sure they still have to pay interest along the way, but even that has been reduced to less than inflation, so when you buy a government bond at 1% you aren’t really getting paid, even if the inflation numbers were to be believed (which they are not) you are actually paying 1% to “save” your money.

Oh and then don’t get me going on beer prices. I happened through the Ottawa airport not that long ago on a layover and with a reasonable but modest tip 1 beer was $15 bucks. It’s mostly water! But I am sure in 2052 it will be at least $30, or possibly $45.

Whatever you buy now, you earn at least 2% on, and I think it’s closer to 5%, just by not having to buy it later for more. Computers and smart phones (and maybe cars) excepted because they’ve figured out how to make those things just stop working after a few years.

#33 Eyestrain on 11.02.17 at 7:34 pm

#10 Bitcoinnaire

The title of this blog is not a challenge to bloggers, it is an economic theory that has yet to be refuted. Look it up, or read the latest Economist for enlightenment before you walk down to the bank with your floppy disk to buy a house.

#34 Stone on 11.02.17 at 7:34 pm

Can’t go without sharing the YTD return on the lovely balanced and diversified ETF portfolio. 8.46% today so a slight 0.05% drop from yesterday. Oh my! The volatility is so hard to take. If nothing changes until my next dividend comes in this coming Monday, I’ll be at 8.72%. Come to papa, little divi! Sweet!

#35 Rocket Bitcoinman on 11.02.17 at 7:43 pm

Been hodling 10 BTC for 2 years, just sold 5 BTC @ CAD$9235/btc .. still have a bunch left, expecting to hit $10K by end of year .. easy to cash out, just transfer to QuadrigaCX and e-transfer out to bank account. Ezee Pezee ..

#36 Brandon on 11.02.17 at 7:45 pm

Been wondering the same. Everyone I know who own them haven’t cashed out a penny of it. I would think you’d at least take back your original investment if the returns are so magnificent. That way, if something goes bad, you’re at least even. Sounds too much like a Bernie Madoff play. Could all be legit but I’ll pass, thanks.

Easy enough to cash out of cryptos. We slowly sold to retrieve our initial investment plus a handsome profit. Playing with house money now but won’t cash that out because I believe in the tech or more accurately I don’t believe in fiat. Stay diversified everyone and yes even a bit of crypto. I prefer LTC. Great blog Garth and thank you for all you do.

#37 Leichendiener on 11.02.17 at 7:48 pm

Damn these are interesting times. My lunch buddy’s son just put an offer in on a property somewhere near Peterborough. His son and wife plan to work and rent in TO and spend their weekends in the woods, just to own ‘land’. When I was young, I knew it all, but now I know very little about anything.

#38 Stone on 11.02.17 at 7:50 pm

#10 Bitcoinnaire on 11.02.17 at 6:42 pm
Another day, another all time high for Bitcoin.

$7,000 and a major sell-off as the shorts and the longs got liquidated today. It was beautiful seeing the greedy margin piglets get squashed.

All it takes is iron hands and hold. The people who made the most on Bitcoin are in the majority, those who simply held (or forgot) instead of day trading or chasing derivative coins.

Oh, great article BTW Garth, but I’ll be buying my first 400,000 property in cash next year so I guess this whole lending business doesn’t apply to me. We’ll see first if the CRA accepts my cost-averaged capital gains claims, since there’s no way they’re clever enough to track magic internet money.

——

That sounds counterintuitive. Why would you sell bitcoin to buy a house? Why would you sell period? Won’t it just go up indefinitely?

Also, if the one’s who made the most are the majority and they also all decide to cash out at the same time, where will the money come from to provide them with their cash? It can’t be from the minority? Wouldn’t it be the opposite? A minority made the most and the sucker majority are needed to feed the pyramid scheme and will be left high and dry when the dust settles?

Things don’t add up. This sounds like real estate speculation. Sounds like you need alot of greater fools to buy in to make this happen. What happens when the greater fools dry up. Interstellar implosion? Welcome Bernie Madoff #2.

If you actually make money on this (I’m only counting what you get cash in your account), good for you. As for me, no thanks. Might be a mistake on my part but I won’t touch this with a ten foot pole.

#39 Oakville sucks on 11.02.17 at 7:52 pm

DELETED

#40 Doghouse Dweller on 11.02.17 at 7:57 pm

#21 Angry Forex Trader
Are Canadian dollars in demand worldwide like the US$?
——————————————————————
Canadian $ never had any demand, don`t travel with them nobody wants or accepts them, they just have a picture of the Queen like every other former Brit colony/island on the planet. The Bank O Canada vaults don`t even hold an ounce of gold and its`s backed by the power to tax the worlds worst debt junkies.
Canadian dollar volatile?
Its a sticks and stones economy, there `s a 21% US duty on our sticks and we are about to get kicked in the stones.

#41 PastThePeak on 11.02.17 at 7:58 pm

#12 Crazy millennial

In a market as frothy as the GTA and YVR, where housing is a big part of the economy, a reversal of RE is going to cause sizeable job losses. Maybe not a national recession, but could be localized ones. Realtors, trades, mortgage brokers, ancillary services, and the impact of those losses on retail.

Falling house prices, even a little when sustained, will make all of those HELOC holders less likely to spend as well. All the opposite of the ride up.

#42 Ian on 11.02.17 at 8:05 pm

#29 John

I don’t know, but I’m waiting for the one at Shuter & Church to collapse too.

They’re still below ground level. I had to listen to drills and machinery all summer, 7am on the dot start AND on Saturdays AND holiday Mondays when I would have dearly loved some peace and quiet. No dice.

So it’s one of my indicators for you dogs. When it stops, and everyone wants out of their pre-construction purchase nonsense, you all will be the first to know!!!

#43 Meth on 11.02.17 at 8:10 pm

I like the cut of your jib.

#44 I’m stupid on 11.02.17 at 8:12 pm

#10 bitcoinair

I will never in my life buy bitcoins. If my advisors ever put bitcoins in my portfolio fire their asses before they finished the sentence. They’re useless internet junk bought by morons. If you made a bundle on them don’t be stupid, sell and lock in your gains. No one ever went broke selling too early. I feel my words will fall on deaf ears and you’ll regret not listing to me. Good luck

#45 dr. talc on 11.02.17 at 8:19 pm

a year ago we saw 13 offers on any old crap.
the reality is that people with equity do not care if they take less: they pay less when they up or downgrade, relocate etc and of course they don’t need to endure 12 competing ‘shooters’ at the table when they buy
the stress test will help established professional high earner types and hurt others (self employed, bad documentation, low down payment, new immigrants)
Jeremy Rudin said just before ‘Stress Test the sequel’ he wanted to cool the market, but that had already been done by Morneau on oct 3 2016,(but the effects were not evident until April 2017), unless you think the income tax changes and deadline of April 2017 and the market slowdown was a coincidence

#46 prairie person on 11.02.17 at 8:24 pm

Went downtown in Victoria today. Hadn’t been for a while. Shocking. Entire blocks have disappeared. Lots of big holes in the ground, bldgs in various stages of rising up. If we are only months away from Armageddon a lot of builders are going to lose money, lots of money But that happens every time there is a downturn. Projects take so long to come to completion. Tradesmen lose their shirts. Last time one company put all the bathrooms into a condo project. It went belly up and so did the company that put in the bathrooms. It isn’t just the initial developer who loses. The grief is spread far and wide. All those bills not paid. All those profits not made. When you wish a housing crash, bankruptcies, it isn’t just the rich developers, the real estate agents who take a beating.

#47 GTA Girl on 11.02.17 at 8:25 pm

Things are not so rosy for a few well known developers and their idiot-son’s.

That GTA developer who bellowed about expansion, expanded right into the flood plains of Houston Texas. Bought a few smaller builders in the area, and did a big reveal earlier in 2017 of a massive project just outside of Houston. Well now that the water has subsided, lawsuits from new owners, people walking away & a shamed city council facing extermination at the hands of water logged residents. Maybe it wasn’t a great idea for developer to give that interview in a Toronto paper, yelling about how TO Council should have the open Wild West- no-rules pro-development welcome wagon like Houston City council. Ouch.

Another lakeshore active developer is facing a $6mil tax bill that stemmed from a CRA investigation into his buddies weird Ponzi scheme. Its now leading into more investigations of flipping condo papers. The court papers are a great read. Who takes investment advice from a buddy who is a dentist?

Vaughan’s idiot sons have been told to tone down their image. No more screeching into Kleinburg restaurant parking lots in their Bentley SUV’s. Also, maybe not post Instagram pics of your gaggle of girlfriends (who all have phone numbers on their Instagrams, in case you require a model at 3am)…it was a bad decision to take them up in your dad’s company hot air balloon, along with Cristale. Everyone had their balloons out when passing over the site Dad is building homes for young families…

Don’t cry for them even though their sales offices are now empty and interest is ice cold. Many of these idiot-sons are jumping into the legal pot business.

#48 Smoking Man on 11.02.17 at 8:29 pm

The globalist agenda to emasculate males and turn them into agreeable little bitches for the final take over. More on that later.

First off, Mike and Ian, great meeting you guys tonight, you follow my forex strategy you will never need to work again. This pathetic blog really attracts the smartest of the smart out there. Good guys.

Thanks for picking up the tab Mike,

Back to T2, Halloween, his son is dressed up like a girl with a pink hat, all over facebook and twitter. The poster boy for globalization has to please his masters. I get it and Canada will benefit in the short term. I called Amazon puts HQ2 in Canada as a reward for T2’s blind attraction to Soros. But man once these animals get total power over us. Your kids will murder you without hesitations. Time to burn down the schools. Let’s make T2 a drama teacher again.

#49 oncebittwiceshy on 11.02.17 at 8:33 pm

Apparently, the immigrants in Ontario can’t keep up with the local specuvestors any more than they can keep up with the local specuvestors in Vancouver.

“It’s really unacceptable,” said Ted Baxby, who lives in Kingston, Ont. The landlord of twenty apartments receives most of his rent money via online transfers.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/td-says-e-transfer-problem-fixed-after-some-customers-couldnt-get-cash-for-days/ar-AAumWLy?li=AAgh0dA

#50 Blacksheep on 11.02.17 at 8:35 pm

Un Happy # 2,

Wow! You sure told me….

May I suggest you expand your vocabulary beyond your favorite hate word, that hints to many, at anti-semitic connotations of the past.

Did I mention my wife is German born?

#51 TRUMP on 11.02.17 at 8:35 pm

Your here for the Bitches and the puppies……

I’m here for the ladies and the drinks……..

Canada’s economy is doing great. No need to worry about crashes. What goes down will eventually come back up. Ryan L says so…..

Buy! BUY!! BUY!!!!!!

#52 LivinLarge on 11.02.17 at 8:38 pm

“Deals always multiply in the autumn, so the better comparison is with last year, not the summer.” Are you absolutely certain about this Fearless Leader? You have far more comprehensive knowledge about all things real estate and I have only purchased two houses in Canada and I am 62 now. But I was married to a RE agent when I bought the first one and was told that deals peaked in the summer with possessions timed for before schools went back in session. This to avoid the often screwy problems with switching schools or districts.

#53 Smoking Man on 11.02.17 at 8:39 pm

#21 Angry Forex Trader on 11.02.17 at 7:06 pm
Are Canadian dollars in demand worldwide like the US$? What happens when the real estate crashes and the Canadian dollar loses international demand?

MARK’S DEFLATIONARY THEORY told me that post-real estate collapse, Canadian dollars will be in demand to pay off debt, but is that true?

What makes one not walk away from their debt, or to withdraw their remaining HELOC line of credit and live out of Canada for a few years to avoid debt collectors?

Poloz is a piece of dog poo to have not told anyone that he was only hiking then remaining bearish for the rest of the year.

Current oil and metal prices are supporting the loonie for now, but once oil falls below $50bbl, I predict a loonie in the US$0.74-74.8888 range.

Why the hell is the Canadian dollar so volatile? From 71 cents in May 2017 to 83 cents in September, now back to 78 cents
….

The only reason your Angry is because you don’t know how to trade it. Renko Charts, two bricks up buy. Two bricks down reverse.

My wife made 50k in the last 3 weeks using my system. Thinking I’m going to drop dead in the near future, lifestyle out of control. Mike offered me a shit load of money to teach him. I taught him for free. he bought my 9 dollar book.

That book is everything to me. It predicts the future perfectly in a fun way.

Mike, please read the damn thing now, now that met me, and give it an honest book review from where you got it.

The reviews are what I live for. I’m a writer now, all the other shit I do, don’t mean much to me. No challenge.

A dyslexic fiction author. huge challenge.

I’m a Proud boy.

#54 Anon reader on 11.02.17 at 8:39 pm

In response to: “Most people still have no idea what’s coming. B20 means mortgages, effectively, rise to 5% in January.”

Another great post, but I think the impact of B20 on many areas of the market is overblown. Time will tell, but B20 only makes the effective interest rate 5% for those who are borrowing a large amount relative to their income.

For example, my mortgage is about 1 year of after-tax income. I enjoy trying to live well within my means and investing the excess.

There is a material difference between the interest rate and the rate to qualify for a mortgage. My interest rate will not be impacted by B20. I suspect that many other owners in the 40+ age group are in the same position.

You are also not part of the real estate market since you’re not buying or selling. So your mortgage is irrelevant. But your equity will be affected. – Garth

#55 Just curious on 11.02.17 at 8:42 pm

#29, +1.

What major Toronto condo project failed?

Museum Flats. – Garth

#56 oncebittwiceshy on 11.02.17 at 8:45 pm

bubu: “they will be flat for a long time… look at Edmonton and Calgary… with few exceptions most of the expensive houses are in the market for years.. owners will not lower the prices…. they will rent them or not sell until they get what they want….”
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Sit bubu, sit. Lol. Yes let's look at Edmonton and Calgary.

"Foreclosures are on the rise, up by about 25 per cent annually over the past two years."
https://globalnews.ca/news/3455634/foreclosures-in-alberta-up-about-25-annually-for-past-2-years/

Yes, bubu ……. everything will be just fine. Lololol

#57 Bitcoinnaire on 11.02.17 at 8:46 pm

>@15 TheSpangler
>You convert any of those amounts to cash yet?

$60K USD several weeks ago to test the waters for my tax filing in 2018. My principle investment was $20K US back in early 2013.

You sell your coins on an exchange, except without any brokers or other nonsense, to willing market buyers at global market prices. I use Kraken for fiat, which has high volumes and lets you trade the BTC/CAD or USD pairs; I sold 12 coins within 45 minutes. Then you simply request a withdrawal, which is wire transferred to your bank.

I’m holding the rest of the coins for the long haul, this is the embryonic form of an entirely new economy.

>@33 Asspain

It was amusing to hear the FUD throughout 2013, 2014, 2015 by those without the courage, means or computer literacy to gain exposure to Bitcoin. Now it’s just tedious and sad. Enjoy those dizzying 3% stock market gains granpa, in a space littered with institutional investors, computerized algorithms and brokers which bet against your every position. This magic internet money is highly sought-after and people are paying for it with hard-earned fiat.

>@38 Stone
>That sounds counterintuitive. Why would you sell bitcoin to buy a house? Why would you sell period? Won’t it just go up indefinitely?

Mom separated from dad and needs a place to live, near me. Plus I deserve a second-hand Porsche.

I’ve sold only a small part of my stash to test the taxation regimen.

#58 Dolce Vita on 11.02.17 at 8:53 pm

RE is a done deal. Stop telling yourselves that it isn’t.

Sales volumes down, prices dropping in all but the cheapest of residential property, condos.

Economic headwinds, rates to go up, unprecedented high debt, unprecedented housing bubble, NAFTA = Made in America and the US holds all the cards…

All that is left is job losses to crash the residential RE market and we are getting there, Aug. to Sept. 2017 Labour Force Survey:

BC -12,400
AB -15,800 (per their MSM, they are in recovery)
PQ -12,400
MN -1,500
SK -1,300
ON +35,300
Bal. of provinces, very small if any gains due to their size.

The only thing making for a favorable Canadian jobs report is ON, overall it makes Canada look good for jobs, when by Province, it is not.

We’ll see today in the Oct. 2017 Labour Force Survey it that continues to hold true.

I still say, we are staring at the largest Residential Real Estate Asset Devaluation in Canadian history. B20 nothing more than a final nail in the coffin.

#59 AGuyInVancouver on 11.02.17 at 8:54 pm

#32 nonplused
..The car-like nature of the Mustang has not improved at all, in fact the old ones were probably better, in the fact that they produced the objective (a cool motorized seat) for far less investment of resources than the new ones do..
_ _ _
Sorry, but not even in close. Anyone who does a back to back drive in a 2017 Mustang with a 1967 model would be appalled at the original model’s crappy handling on it’s skinny bias ply tires and laughable braking. That’s not even taking into account how much safer the new model is.

#60 Smoking Man on 11.02.17 at 8:57 pm

Corey Feldman

Good for you, sick liberal demented Hollywood, it’s about time.

Parents keep your daughters in school so when Harvey Weinstein grabs them, he gets kicked in the nuts hard, the defiant girl on wall street, love it.

If you have sons, homeschool them.

Let them grow up to be men so the super girls will love them and not loathe them, and you get grandkids as a beauty prize.

#61 akashic record on 11.02.17 at 9:10 pm

Two elementary school kids played major role in POW McCain’s rescue from capture in Vietnam.

Navy intelligence developed a rooster of psychoactive kids in schools. Eventually they were asked to do what later developed into 2 decades long black op remote viewing programs for US intelligence agencies and various wings of the military.

Two of the remote viewing kids independently not only confirmed that McCain was held at the Hilton in Hanoi, they also provided the details that were crucial to carry out the mission successfully.

#62 Dolce Vita on 11.02.17 at 9:12 pm

#12 Crazy millennial

Word for word what we said at your age in Calgary in the early 80s. Then…plop went RE sales and prices.

Your Vaughn buddies will have to sell when they lose their jobs, they all do.

Then you’ll find out which of them actually saved some money for a rainy day and/or got a reasonable severance. Don’t hold your breath.

There is going to be no slow melt. Garth does not want to seem to be an alarmist.

Every RE crash we have had happens fast. Just look at 416 RE this year after its peak…was that a slow melt?

Here are you historical “slow melt” RE price drops in Canada:

https://i.imgur.com/uzinX0L.jpg

See any there?

I don’t.

#63 bubu on 11.02.17 at 9:15 pm

@ 42 oncebittwiceshy

go and buy my friend if this is what you think… skinny houses for $750-950k …. if you can afford…. rent baby or move to Leduc….

#64 MF on 11.02.17 at 9:16 pm

#13 Ian on 11.02.17 at 6:48 pm

“Just met Smoking Man and Mike. They do exist, folks, it’s not just a legend!

SM did an fx trading seminar for us too. USDCAD all the way.

Really enjoyed it. Thanks gentlemen”

-Great to hear some blog dogs got together again!

…But we are all wondering how many hotties from the burbs were there??

MF

#65 Long Branch Apprentice on 11.02.17 at 9:17 pm

Even Elizabeth Warren now admits that the DNC was rigged for Hillary.

So many conspiracies proven right that even Smoking Man is becoming main stream. Just kidding.

Big news day tomorrow for USDCAD

#66 CdM on 11.02.17 at 9:20 pm

Anyone have any stats on housing prices for K-W?

#67 the Jaguar on 11.02.17 at 9:22 pm

Thanks to 45 North (#55 post) yesterday for the link to a previous Garth post on real estate with a sentence that got my attention:

“There are always people ready to buy a house who don’t follow the capital markets, monetary policy or leading indicators. Instead they have hormones, emotions and parents screaming at them to grow a set and get a mortgage.”

Well said. It struck me that it’s not just true about buying homes or getting mortgages, but lots of other issues that impact our daily lives. Some people see it coming, others are oblivious. Jim Prentice did when he gave a television address about difficult times coming to Alberta. He was paying attention to oil frac-ing efforts south of the border. He is well remembered and admired for his authenticity and wisdom. Rest in Peace, Jim Prentice. Still hard to believe oil and gas got caught with their pants down on that issue. If you work in an industry that is ripe for disruption due to leading technologies hopefully you are on top of it with an exit strategy or plan versus being another victim mowed down. Retail has either been slow to absorb the facts or slow to react to them which explains the roadkill in that sector. Newspapers, journalism, AirBNB raiding hotel room bookings, or just working somewhere making widgets that overnight became obsolete- ! Financial Services will be next. Some of them are 200 years old, but if they don’t have and execute a strategy to transform to the new economy and retain the loyalty of their clients they will get ‘toasted’. Hard enough to dance on the head of a pin and reinvent themselves in good times, but I agree with Garth that the economic vise is tightening with interest rate increases, regulatory restrictions and a bloated, overvalued market. Mercy. Jaguar’s are devoted to details. In details lie many discarded clues to possible upcoming events, unexpressed desires, true character, and of course the secret lives of dogs like Bandit,… Spirit Dog.

#68 april on 11.02.17 at 9:24 pm

#16 – Says who?

#69 Smoking Man on 11.02.17 at 9:29 pm

#64 MF on 11.02.17 at 9:16 pm
#13 Ian on 11.02.17 at 6:48 pm

“Just met Smoking Man and Mike. They do exist, folks, it’s not just a legend!

SM did an fx trading seminar for us too. USDCAD all the way.

Really enjoyed it. Thanks gentlemen”

-Great to hear some blog dogs got together again!

…But we are all wondering how many hotties from the burbs were there??

MF
,,,,
Zero

Short term rentals for prostate cancer prevention. Ugly as shit now. Old bastard.

Philanthropy has its moments.

#70 MF on 11.02.17 at 9:30 pm

#161 IHCTD9 on 11.02.17 at 12:37 pm

“Have you thought at all about commuting? I know it sucks sitting in traffic, but you seem to hate renting just as bad, so it’s a choose the lesser evil proposition.”

-I’m the opposite. I would prefer to give up space in exchange for a shorter commute. That’s part of why I want to get a condo in the GTA. I enjoy the hustle and busyness of the big city!

Right now the plan is to wait and wait until after these OSFI rules are implemented. I think condo/house prices will dampen a bit in the wake OSFI, but the effect will wear off and then prices will romp higher. It could be good entry point (like last summer was).

MF

#71 Deplorable Dude on 11.02.17 at 9:37 pm

Meanwhile USA is cooking on gas. Atlanta Fed forecasts possible 4.5% GDP incoming…!

Also looks like the DNC has received instructions from upon high to go scorched earth on Hillary…..

….both Donna Brazille and Warren pushed her off a cliff today.

Looks like the DNC is getting ready for the 2018 primaries and wants Hillary out of the way and to try win back all the Bernie sheep…..er supporters.

#72 Dolce Vita on 11.02.17 at 9:37 pm

1 last bitch post for today and it is about Zolo.ca for Vancouver.

These 2 Detached tables not quite a month apart. Take a look at the 1 year ago average prices how they miraculously change:

Oct. 10: https://i.imgur.com/4knXWBg.jpg?1

Nov. 3: https://i.imgur.com/PK10fNV.jpg

Or how does the 6 Bd. average change from $2M to $3M a mere 3 months ago? Or 2 Bd jump from $2.5M to $4.1M in a month?

I get that recent deals, or even some from 6 mo. ago don’t all get reported until recently or some deals fall thru, but come on, the above stretches the imagination beyond Planet Claire has pink air, All the trees are red, status.

Fast becoming an unbelievable RE site.

#73 Ronaldo on 11.02.17 at 9:39 pm

#30 BlogDog123 on 11.02.17 at 7:30 pm

Hey HHCE is back!
We missed your anti-shyster rants. Kinda repetitive, but you speak the truth that needs to be told…
—————————————————————
Been here all along only under different name. Guess who?

#74 april on 11.02.17 at 9:40 pm

#58 – so we should go buy a condo now while prices are still going up. By the time the prices come back down they’ll be priced where the are about now so why wait?

#75 akashic record on 11.02.17 at 9:42 pm

Uranium One scandal: uranium left from US to Canada before moving overseas…

#76 Smoking Man on 11.02.17 at 9:44 pm

Drunken writers theam song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7bIbVlIqEc

#77 Ian on 11.02.17 at 9:45 pm

It’s time for BoC to be dragged kicking and screaming upwards whether they like it or not!

In the summer I thought Poloz understood the problem of a 436% debt / GDP issue that puts Canada at the top of the list in terms of debt problems and risk.

I thought he understood it. I thought he clearly understood we need to burst this bubble before it gets so much worse and is so much more disruptive. Now it appears he was only correcting his stupidity from 2015, and will now be forced into rises against his will.

May the outgoing Yellen ‘n Screamin for a December rate hike and Jerome ‘raise me up!’ Powell teach these incompetent clowns in Ottawa how real policy works.

We may be on the cusp of a serious divergence between the two countries in terms of economic growth. US has high GDP prints and latest 3% and a tax reform plan that will absolutely murder us, and we have the uneducated Snowboarder and his son in pink leotards.

Canada literally has no clue.

#78 dakkie on 11.02.17 at 9:53 pm

Global Real Estate Prices at ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH! Here’s Why This Will Crash HARD!

http://investmentwatchblog.com/global-real-estate-prices-at-all-time-record-high-heres-why-this-will-crash-hard/

#79 Lost...but not leased on 11.02.17 at 9:55 pm

Somebody shaved the dogs paw…it look’s like a human hand.

#80 Ian on 11.02.17 at 9:58 pm

Also, there needs to be some serious thought on this blog as to how reneged purchases are measured in the data.

Matters almost zero in a bull market when everything is all organic cider, European chocolate, and roses, but is going to matter a whole bunch as this roaring housing bear continues.

So many questions…how many GTA deals are scratched? Is the pace increasing? How much is it skewing the reported ‘sales’ data?

Come on my dogs, we’re in a new environment after a 21 year bull bubble. Someone must have some insight for me.

#81 Smoking Man on 11.02.17 at 10:04 pm

Homeschool the boys.

Grandkids Is all I’m saying,

#82 For those about to flop... on 11.02.17 at 10:08 pm

Hey Dolce,you must have missed the below post I wrote you addressing this issue

3011 Point Grey Rd was a two bedroom bulldozer that went for 13.5 million a couple of weeks ago a distorted everything as there were only a handful of other sales in that bracket.

Some people refer to it as the Golden Block and it is in the Golden Mile.

Also as I stated in a post a couple days ago the ones that need to sell Spring 2016prices, plus ten percent are trapped.

A house that is assessed at 5 million at the moment and starts off asking 5.5 is eventually selling for 4.5 or somewhere around that.

The same type of house in my Pink Folder that paid roughly 5 million,needs to get 5.5 or 1 million more than the previous house to be made roughly whole.

And that ladies and gentlemen ,is why you haven’t seen much CONFIRMED PINK SNOW ,because although this is an extreme example buyers with that sort of coin can be more picky and put in a lower bid ,something they pretty much couldn’t do for the last decade or so a lot of my cases are being passed over for the same type of house but 10-15-20% cheaper than my cases…

M43BC

#72 Dolce Vita on 11.02.17 at 9:37 pm
1 last bitch post for today and it is about Zolo.ca for Vancouver.

These 2 Detached tables not quite a month apart. Take a look at the 1 year ago average prices how they miraculously change:

Oct. 10: https://i.imgur.com/4knXWBg.jpg?1

Nov. 3: https://i.imgur.com/PK10fNV.jpg

Or how does the 6 Bd. average change from $2M to $3M a mere 3 months ago? Or 2 Bd jump from $2.5M to $4.1M in a month?

I get that recent deals, or even some from 6 mo. ago don’t all get reported until recently or some deals fall thru, but come on, the above stretches the imagination beyond Planet Claire has pink air, All the trees are red, status.

Fast becoming an unbelievable RE site.

////////////////////////////

3011 point grey Rd ass

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMDVHMA==

Dolce vita22.17 at 4:23 am
Off topic.

Something amiss at Zolo.ca or Vancouver RE going nuts again, as in up. Observe the 2 Bd average selling price, yup, $4 million:

https://i.imgur.com/u7YTcSh.

///////////////////////////////

Hey Dolce,hope you’re well.

I will try and explain this anomaly for you,although I am not very good at it.

During the period selected between September 20 October 18 ,there were only 6 Two bedroom detached houses sold in Vancouver proper.

One of the houses happened to be a waterfront property in one of the most sought after blocks of land in the city.

3011 Point Grey Rd sold for 13.5m a few days ago mainly for land value as the house when I looked the other day was only valued at roughly 250k.

So this one house out of the six selling for 13.5m was most likely the culprit in the short term anomaly.

I actually mentioned this house in a post the other day because it was one of the larger sales I had seen in a while and also pointed out that not far away from that house is my biggest Pink Pumpkin at the moment at 3241 Point Grey Rd.

I will be first to admit sometimes I come across as a blithering idiot with my all too relaxed writing style and my failure to bother to correct obvious grammatical errors ,but if you dig a little deeper you will see I try to get the facts and figures right in my posts and the rest is just theatre…

M43BC

3241 Point Grey Rd. Paid 15.5 asking 17.8

Can’t get it ,started at 21.8 a long time ago.

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMDVFUw==

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3241-point-grey-road

#83 'Gender Identity Certification' on 11.02.17 at 10:12 pm

completed. I can now get back behind the bench, coach minor hockey. Here are some gems;

‘I’m Peter and i’ll be your assistant coach for the season. I go the pronouns he , him and his. Let’s go around the room and all introduce ourselves to each other this way’

‘ “it’ is a gender neutral pronoun, so why we say, ‘look what ‘it’ is wearing today?’ That’s not grammatically wrong. Everyone has the freedom of speech and should not have to call anyone else a name or pronoun they don’t want to’

‘others will be looking to you as a model to take cues on how to speak and act on the topic of gender diversity’

nah, ya got the wrong coach. Take crazy elsewhere

#84 TurnerNation on 11.02.17 at 10:12 pm

That condo which went paws up…months ago I was told its site was under major remediation…previous toxic factory. Someone should dig deeper and sniff out this one.

#85 really? on 11.02.17 at 10:23 pm

That sounds counterintuitive. Why would you sell bitcoin to buy a house? Why would you sell period? Won’t it just go up indefinitely?

………

you sell cause you’re up 400%, are happy with the ROI …… want to cash out. And want to now buy property

how old are you?

#86 OttawaMike on 11.02.17 at 10:23 pm

What happened to the lawyers holding the down payment in trust?

Now the brokerages want to hold it to make sure they have their piece of the pie closer to their mouth.

With 5% commission on 1 million dollar plus deals, we are talking some serious money. Although it is starting to become common to see brokers cutting to 4.25% commissions now in Toronto.

#87 Tony on 11.02.17 at 10:30 pm

Re: #27 bubu on 11.02.17 at 7:26 pm

In Calgary and especially Edmonton lowering the asking price of a house doesn’t work and if you keep lowering the price they automatically figure something is wrong with the house and it never sells. So either way homes sit on mls for years in both Calgary and in Edmonton. Most of the renters have left both cities and rents are still falling. Rents are back where they were around the year 2009 in both cities.

#88 Adrian on 11.02.17 at 10:31 pm

Capitalism can generate an economic crisis just from a slowing down of a (still growing) level of private debt. (Private, because commercial banks create your new deposit money ex nihilo as a balance sheet operation when they give you a mortgage.)

The conditions for the emergence of a crisis are 1) a high level of outstanding private debt (>150%), and 2) a rapid growth rate of that debt (>=17% over five years). Canada easily meets both conditions right now.

(Also, unemployment and change in debt are inversely correlated, so when credit growth slows down, unemployment rises. The fact that 30% of Canada’s GDP is exports dampens this relationship domestically for us, thankfully. If we lose NAFTA going into this, however, we’re in deeeeep $#!+.)

Professor Steve Keen’s latest lecture explains @ ~16min, although I encourage watching the whole 30min:

Can we avoid another financial crisis?
https://youtu.be/X77ZCo1-dsE

#89 Lost...but not leased on 11.02.17 at 10:41 pm

The condo market flusssshhh

IMHO condos are the BITCOIN of Real Estate( or vice versa)

An old realtor repeated the time worn adage about Real Estate..aka “they are not making anymore…”

WRONG…the old rules no longer apply.

Condos are effectively “AIR “RE…they are built as high as local gov’t allow with unbridled abandon far in excess of need. It appears Gov’t, through various policies, have funnelled homebuyers and investors into condos as opposed to SFH.

SFH will undergo a correction per se, but the ethereal condo market has all the signs of collapsing into oblivion, which could be orders of magnitude based on the sheer volume.

Condo owners should be extremely nervous and potential condo buyers should wake up from the pre-sale trance.

#90 Lost...but not leased on 11.02.17 at 10:54 pm

My aunt passed away…lived in NYC area.

My cousin is her executor. Her main asset was her residence. Its up for sale and apparently the market has picked up. They interviewed realtors…picked one that seems to know the neighbourhood quite well and the commission will be 3%.

Will receive some of the inheritance, in US funds…which I will keep as a separate account..why not..the Canuck Buck will likely sink. This is a no brainer, LOONIE can’t afford anything close to parity with USD

Side Note:
Taxation on estates doe not occur till after approx. $3.5 million

#91 For those about to flop... on 11.02.17 at 11:00 pm

I will give you a less extreme example of how prices are coming down in Vancouver.

5192 Dunbar st.
Originally asking 2.29
Lowered to 1.99
Just Sold for 1.5

Tax assessment 2.15

In a desired part of town…

M43BC

https://dexterrealty.com/officelistings.html/details-69427093

#92 Booby on 11.02.17 at 11:00 pm

Who listens to realtors? It’s like asking a used car salesman for vehicle buying advice.

#93 Mark 3.0 on 11.02.17 at 11:06 pm

You people are all naive, broccoli futures, that’s where the smart money is.
Hmmm,,, greenbea,,,,,er,, broccoli

#94 For those about to flop... on 11.02.17 at 11:10 pm

Here is another one that just sold.

2925 w 10th ave. Vancouver.

Originally asking 2.88

Lowered to 2.48

Just sold 2.4

Tax assessment 2.72

Not extreme ,but had to lower to get the sale done.

I have a new weapon I have been using off blog…

M43BC

https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2217850/2925-w-10th-avenue-vancouver-bc

#95 For those about to flop... on 11.02.17 at 11:19 pm

More proof?
O.k

3995 w 29th ave Vancouver

Originally asking 4.2

Lowered to 3.8

Just sold 3.58

Tax assessment 4.1

My Pink Snow cases just compete with these deductions but at least I worked out a new way to show recent sales.

Who says you can’t teach an old Flop new tricks…

M43BC

#96 notagreaterfool on 11.02.17 at 11:23 pm

Since when does TREB use month over month vs. year over year metrics? The shill MSM by this stuff hook, line and sinker.

#97 akashic record on 11.02.17 at 11:27 pm

Great Mystery,

You are inside of me, within my very breath,
Within each bird, each mighty mountain.
Your sweet touch reaches everything and I am well protected.
Thank you for this beautiful day before me.
May joy, love, peace and compassion be part of my life
And all those around me on this day.
I am healing and I am healed.

#98 april on 11.02.17 at 11:33 pm

Listen to Howestreet.com White Rock Water Crisis…Drowning in Deceit and Deception, by Ross Buchanan. I wouldn’t want to be living in White Rock, BC.

#99 Nonplused on 11.03.17 at 12:00 am

#59 AGuyInVancouver

#32 nonplused
..The car-like nature of the Mustang has not improved at all, in fact the old ones were probably better, in the fact that they produced the objective (a cool motorized seat) for far less investment of resources than the new ones do..
_ _ _
Sorry, but not even in close. Anyone who does a back to back drive in a 2017 Mustang with a 1967 model would be appalled at the original model’s crappy handling on it’s skinny bias ply tires and laughable braking. That’s not even taking into account how much safer the new model is.”

Um, if you are from and living in Vancouver there is nowhere you can go faster in a new Mustang than an original, save maybe the race track, only the new one costs a lot more and no, it isn’t any safer because you just drive more dangerously. Thus my point stands.

What they did was sell you a more powerful motor as if that was somehow useful to you. It isn’t. No more so than Facebook.

You can put modern tires on any car. In fact you will have to. That doesn’t make the car better, just the tires.

#100 Nonplused on 11.03.17 at 12:21 am

More on #59,

And then let’t not forget that almost nothing major has changed on the Mustang since 1967, other than the addition of disc brakes and electronics. The disc brakes were available by 1972 so they don’t count anymore. Let’s look at what else defines a Mustang. Hmm, unibody construction in 2017, check in 1967. Solid rear axle in 2017 check in 1967. V-8 for some models in 2017 check in 1967. Convertible option in 2017 check in 1967. What’s different? Power windows. And $40,000 bucks.

It is easy to make a 1967 Mustang handle like a 2017, and at the time cost a lot less money if that’s what you wanted to do (think Shelby). The thing is at the time people kind of realized that was pointless.

#101 CanadianOne on 11.03.17 at 12:43 am

Some news from down under,

First, “sleeping at the wheel” ? Again? I wonder these same firms operating around the globe let a lot pass by as private firms and then when SHTF the lousy govt. was incompetent. Not supporting govt. here…. just sayin!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-03/asic-boss-concerned-over-poor-auditing/9114490

Secondly, looks very very very interesting as of late, this is about Aussies’ 6 largest markets.

https://www.reddit.com/r/australia/comments/7a16ep/property_sales_volumes_are_in_a_big_sharp/

The maze of lies right in plain sight! If you believed in the corporate media around the world, you would be in a limbo for a loooooong time!

#102 Mark on 11.03.17 at 2:05 am

After Calgary RE peaked in 2011, and Edmonton in 2007, “One of Alberta’s largest homebuilders falls into receivorship”:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/reidbuilt-homes-bankruptcy-1.4385322

“One of Alberta’s largest homebuilders lost its battle to restructure its debt Thursday and fell into receivership after the Royal Bank of Canada sought to collect more than $64.6 million.”

The dominos are starting to fall.

On that note, I don’t know if I reported such on the blog, but I walked by Brad Lamb’s sales centre on King Street in downtown Toronto a few weeks ago and looked in the windows. All I saw were a few salespeople sitting around twiddling their thumbs.

#103 sugar daddy on 11.03.17 at 2:44 am

The conversation can probably wait. And I don’t find much value in Snapchat or Facebook photos of whatever you just ordered for dinner. I know what dinner looks like. (So I guess that makes me lucky.)

#104 Steve French on 11.03.17 at 2:56 am

G’Day.

Steve French from Aussie-land here.

Just wanted to share a real life story.

Been a follower of the GF for some years. I’ve been a bit late starting my career but finally landed my dream job and worked hard last few years to accumulate some surplus.

I decided to take Garth’s advice regarding investing.

I’m happy to report that, in the first year, my balanced, diversified, fully liquid and ultra-sexy ETF portfolio, has thrown out gains of 10.9%.

That’s a return of more than $14,000, after fees. Pay some in tax and the rest goes right into my pocket-book.

Headwinds might be coming this way in the next year, but I think I’m good to ride it out with a balanced approach.

So good on you Garth. I’ve got this blog and your advice to thank.

I’ll even use some of my returns to buy Garth and Smoking Man a beer sometime if either of them ever make it Down Under.

Meet you at the Sydney Harbour Bridge mate.

#105 morrey on 11.03.17 at 2:58 am

Anyone that bought RE 3-4 years ago is sitting pretty. And so it goes

#106 Howard on 11.03.17 at 4:49 am

From yesterday’s discussion…

#197 akashic record on 11.02.17 at 10:43 pm
#187 Newcomer on 11.02.17 at 5:06 pm

#138 Howard on 11.02.17 at 10:47 am
————-

Immigration is good for population growth for two reasons: it brings in more bodies, and immigrants have more kids than natives. If we didn’t have high levels of immigration, we would end up like Japan, where houses sit empty and schools are closed. This will eventually happen everywhere, as more and more countries pass peak population. In the meantime, we are lucky that we have a gas pedal that we can push at will to keep population growth from falling too far. Our economy has always been built on population growth and it will take a lot of adjustment when that eventually stops.

——

Completely outdated view about the current and more importantly the coming economy.

The world does not need further population growth.
Especially not for economic purposes.

Declining population no longer means declining economic output, the imaginary gap is more and more easily filled by increased productivity of automation, robotics.

Declining population with the same economic output means potentially more wealth, as it is shared by less people.

Countries with declining population are and will be the leaders, main beneficiaries of leading edge in technology driven productivity and wealth creation, accumulation.

Countries with growing population will have the opposite.

Immigration is no longer an economic necessity.

Immigration today is a political, ideological dogma, which is used primarily for custom shaping voter demographics.

Study Japan. – Garth

———————————————–

Study Japan? You mean the world’s 3rd biggest economy, still, after 20 years of alleged stagnation? Highest standard of living on the planet? High per capita GDP (population is falling slightly, in line with GDP flatlining)? Longest life expectancy on the planet? A country known for ingenuity, creativity, and high-end technology (unlike the stream of substandard crappy merchandise from across the Sea of Japan)? That Japan?

Heaven forbid Canada become like that!

#107 Ben Dover on 11.03.17 at 5:29 am

http://www.bnn.ca/toronto-home-sales-sink-26-7-as-policy-fallout-starting-to-unwind-1.903456

#108 Where's The Money Guido? on 11.03.17 at 5:31 am

Re: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/2/16599036/donna-brazile-hillary-clinton-sanders

So I guess the DNC in the US got robbed by Killary and Bill when they allowed her to handle all their money.
Just like their charity foundation that was supposed to build houses in Haiti moved all those $billions in donations to Switzerland just before the last election. Has a house ever been built with that money?
And people think that Trump is bad. I’d take a goof over pure evil any day…..
And by the way, over here in BC it’s looking like the Ontario gov’t (Wynne) is looking a lot like Killary and the BC Liberals in their enthusiasm in allowing Great Canadian Gaming Corp. to take over those 4 casinos. They’ll try anything to keep their masters afloat.
We surely are run by mafiosos.
How does Killary and Bill get away with this stuff; just like Greedo Scambull and Crusty Cluck in BC the last 15 years or so.
By the way, where is Crusty?

#109 Howard on 11.03.17 at 5:34 am

#28 Westsider on 11.02.17 at 7:27 pm
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/foreign-buyers-not-swayed-by-15-per-cent-housing-tax-data-show/article36805976/
Lucky that the foreign buyers have such an insignificant
effect on prices in Vancouver!!!

———————————–

In that case raise the tax to 50%.

Not because I think it will deter hot offshore money (it won’t), but just so that we mere Canadians can get as much money out of them as possible (those who haven’t yet figured out the loopholes to avoid the tax).

#110 Howard on 11.03.17 at 5:50 am

#32 Nonplused on 11.02.17 at 7:32 pm

When I bought my last tube style TV, it was an incredible for the time 32 inches, and $350 bucks. Now I have a 52 inch TV that costed $1,000 and there is literally nothing on but NFL protests and commentary about NFL protests. What did I gain? Well, according to the people who calculate inflation, I got my square inches of screen for $2.70 each with the new TV but they were $2.90 per inch for the old TV so my inflation went down. But I still paid $1000 instead of $350. And the damn $350 TV still works! Whereas I’ve had to recycle 1 of the $1,000 TV’s because the power supply fried itself and was too expensive to replace.

The long and the short of it is that it is important to understand the process of inflation and also the diminishing returns on technology. Cars don’t actually provide any more utility than they did 40 years ago, but they cost a whole heck of a lot more. TV’s don’t provide anymore entertainment than they did in the 70’s but they cost a whole lot more and you need cable service to get any shows worth watching. Computers are more powerful in that they can process a lot more cycles per second but they haven’t done anything new in 15 years. You health care costs are going up. Your kid’s education is going to cost a lot more than yours did. Taxes are higher, but there has been no appreciable increase in government services you are driving on the same road that has been there for 50 years. But you need hugely larger sums of money for all these things and we can only assume that in 35 years you will need at least twice as much money again.

————————————–

Traditional television is a dying industry, as we all know. Cord-cutting : https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/13/56-6-million-u-s-consumers-to-go-without-pay-tv-this-year-as-cord-cutting-accelerates/

There’s also a class-based cascade effect. The wealthy in particular are ditching television and this trend will gradually trickle down.

Don’t agree with you about computers – functional, durable computers are cheaper than ever. I bought a refurbished Lenovo 3 years ago for $400. Didn’t think it would last more than 2 years but still going strong.

#111 Howard on 11.03.17 at 5:55 am

#42 Ian on 11.02.17 at 8:05 pm
#29 John

I don’t know, but I’m waiting for the one at Shuter & Church to collapse too

—————————

Shuter & Church. 15 years ago that area was dingy and grungy. Some sketchy bars and alternative clubs. Little diners interspersed with boarded-up shops. Ladies (and men) of the night on the streets. Ethereal.

The good old days pre-gentrification.

#112 Millenial on 11.03.17 at 5:59 am

Hey Garth,

Prices just went up at Starbucks. I get a tall long shot americano every morning. Prices just went up yesterday to $3.10 from $2.90.

$3.10, for essentially a small coffee. Unbelievable. I had already committed to never buying any food, or a 2nd coffee on any given day, from Starbucks after all that crap they said about hiring thousands of refugees. Seriously considering finally just making it at home.

#113 under the radar on 11.03.17 at 6:05 am

Real estate is a market – ups and downs. Like the stock market. Last time i checked companies go bankrupt , they falsify earnings, they fail to report material events, their CEO is a pedophile.
Stocks go to zero, real estate does not . Please don’t equate negative equity in a property to a stock going to zero. -not the same
Not sure why people seem to derive pleasure from reporting how underwater some people are because they bought high.
The desire to own a home is a lot stronger than having a balanced portfolio.
I do understand the irrationality that drove prices to the moon. Yes there is a reckoning , much the same as Nortel and Blackberry and many companies where their fundamentals defy logic. Markets do this …….they go and down.

#114 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 11.03.17 at 6:41 am

http://www.cbc.ca/1.4385322

But but how is that possible?

Happy Housing Crash Everyone

#115 Dharma Bum on 11.03.17 at 6:41 am

Houses.

Basically 4 walls with some holes to let light and people (and dogs) in. And a roof.

Why do the ignorant masses care about them so much?

Misguided, indebted, pitiful fools.

Whatever happened to freedom?

#116 maxx on 11.03.17 at 7:54 am

#30 BlogDog123 on 11.02.17 at 7:30 pm

“Hey HHCE is back!
We missed your anti-shyster rants. Kinda repetitive, but you speak the truth that needs to be told…”

Probably what’s required to get through to Canuckleheads……shysters have been doing the repetitive messaging thing for decades.

#117 Re., 115 on 11.03.17 at 8:16 am

That silly rant ? At least ya got one thing right – you know you’re ‘Bum’

A dharma bum, the dharma sounds cooler ?

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.03.17 at 8:25 am

Cold and snowy in Burnaby…. like the markets

First the banks and govt get nervous.
Next the advertisments get more shrill and desperate.
Then the pre Condo construction stops.
Eventually the prices start dropping.
Sales continue to plummet.
Banks start calling for their pound of flesh.
Then the almost finished Condos and half built houses burn.

A Canadian barbeque

#119 Another Deckchair on 11.03.17 at 8:28 am

#10 Bitcoinniare

Words of wisdom from this olde boomer:

“Remember Mt. Gox”

I do. I also know what Bitcoin mining is.

#120 WUL on 11.03.17 at 8:45 am

I hope this is not posted twice. I had a glitch here in snowbound Cowtown.

Folks often contend that the preference of newcomers for Toronto and Vancouver will keep real estate prices aloft.

Newcomer settlement patterns are changing.

“For the first time, Alberta has welcomed more newcomers than B.C., according to the latest data from the Canada West Foundation.

Statistics show that since approximately 2005, while growth in B.C. has stagnated, migration to Alberta as well as to the other prairie provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan has boomed. In Saskatchewan alone, immigration has increased by 570 percent in the past ten years. Alberta and Manitoba grew 144 and 188 percent, respectively. During that same time period, immigration to B.C. increased by a mere 6.4 percent.”

http://www.immigration.ca/newcomers-choosing-alberta-over-british-columbia/

#121 Victor V on 11.03.17 at 8:48 am

Canada created 35,300 jobs, the most since June. Analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast a net gain of 15,000 positions and predicted the jobless rate would stay at 6.2 per cent.

Full-time employment jumped by 88,700 jobs while part-time positions dipped by 53,400.

http://www.bnn.ca/canada-adds-more-jobs-than-expected-in-october-1.904782

#122 The Hobo Life on 11.03.17 at 9:14 am

#115 Dharma Bum on 11.03.17 at 6:41 am

Houses.

Basically 4 walls with some holes to let light and people (and dogs) in. And a roof.

Why do the ignorant masses care about them so much?

Misguided, indebted, pitiful fools.

Whatever happened to freedom?
…………

There’s a voice that keeps on calling me
Down the road, that’s where I’ll always be.
Every stop I make, I make a new friend,
Can’t stay for long, just turn around and I’m gone again

Maybe tomorrow, I’ll want to settle down,
Until tomorrow, I’ll just keep moving on.

Down this road that never seems to end,
Where new adventure lies just around the bend.
So if you want to join me for a while,
Just grab your hat, come travel light, that’s hobo style.

Maybe tomorrow I’ll want to settle down,
Until tomorrow, the whole world is my home.

So if you want to join me for a while,
Just grab your hat, come travel light, that’s hobo style

Maybe tomorrow, I’ll want to settle down,
Until tomorrow, the whole world is my home.

There’s a world that’s waiting to unfold,
A brand new tale no-one has ever told.
We’ve journeyed far but you know it wont be long;
We’re almost there, we’ve paid our fare with a hobo song.

Maybe tomorrow, I’ll find what I call home,
Until tomorrow, you know I’m free to roam.

So if you want to join me for a while,
Just grab your hat, we’ll travel light, that’s hobo style.

Maybe tomorrow, I’ll want to settle down,
Until tomorrow, I’ll just keep moving on.

Until tomorrow, the whole world is my home.

#123 Bitcoinaire on 11.03.17 at 9:23 am

>@#119 Another Deckchair

>Mt. Gox

Was the only major exchange in 2013.

It’s a wholly different environment now. Anyway, enjoy those bluechips, and dried prunes.

#124 IHCTD9 on 11.03.17 at 9:30 am

#112 Millenial on 11.03.17 at 5:59 am
Hey Garth,

Prices just went up at Starbucks. I get a tall long shot americano every morning. Prices just went up yesterday to $3.10 from $2.90.

$3.10, for essentially a small coffee. Unbelievable. I had already committed to never buying any food, or a 2nd coffee on any given day, from Starbucks after all that crap they said about hiring thousands of refugees. Seriously considering finally just making it at home.
________________

If you drink two of those every day, you could finance a New 2017 Grizzly 700 EPS for about the same money per week.

Try Melitta (blue can), good stuff and a can lasts me like a month.

#125 Doghouse Dweller on 11.03.17 at 9:39 am

#112 Millenial
Seriously considering finally just making it at home.
=========================================

If you want that Starbucks euro flavor at home just add some Espresso coffee to your Colombian about 10 col to 1 esp . You can froth milk nicely with a cheap french press. Youtube it.

#126 IHCTD9 on 11.03.17 at 9:58 am

#110 Howard on 11.03.17 at 5:50 am
#32 Nonplused on 11.02.17 at 7:32 pm

Don’t agree with you about computers – functional, durable computers are cheaper than ever. I bought a refurbished Lenovo 3 years ago for $400. Didn’t think it would last more than 2 years but still going strong.
_____________________________

Yep. My first PC back in the 90’s was a Pentium 200MMX with a 15″ tube monitor and Windows 95 – $1700.00 and that was a great deal then. The next one I bought was an HP Pavillion – $600.00. I now use an Ipad – that was $550.00.

My First TV after getting married was a 27″ Tube Sony Trinitron for $800.00. Today $800.00 would get me 3X the TV by any measure you compare.

In fact, just about any consumer good is cheaper now compared to incomes these days. When I was a kid, almost no one had a riding lawnmower, way too expensive. You waited for the 20% off sale at Canadian Tire to get your expensive new Ratchet set back then. Now 2-3 times a Year you got a 75% off sale, and regular price was already dirt cheap.

Technology and Globalism have driven prices through the floor on anything manufactured. As a kid, I always used to love looking at the flying model airplanes you could build and then fly, there were entire shops dedicated to this kind of stuff. The cheapest ones were a couple hundred bucks, and that was a box of parts. Now you can buy a small drone at ToysRus for 30.00, charge it, and fly it around the living room.

What does a shovel cost these days? How about a rake, wheel barrow, angle grinder, wrench set? All ridiculously dirt cheap.

#127 IHCTD9 on 11.03.17 at 10:00 am

#121 The Hobo Life on 11.03.17 at 9:14 am
____________________________

There’s some nostalgia!

#128 LivinLarge on 11.03.17 at 10:02 am

Oh Fearless Leader…any further news from Derek (I think that’s his blog name)? Is he still paying the Llb’s Mercedes payment each month chasing the dead beat agent/buyer?

#129 Gravy Train on 11.03.17 at 10:06 am

#118 crowdedelevator on 11.03.17 at 8:25 am
“Cold and snowy in Burnaby…. like the markets”

Er, um, emerging markets are up 7% last month alone.

Current weather conditions:
Burnaby — 3 degrees Celsius, feels like 0, with snow-rain showers.
Halifax — 16 degrees Celsius, feels like 16, chance of a shower.

#130 IHCTD9 on 11.03.17 at 10:14 am

#115 Dharma Bum on 11.03.17 at 6:41 am

Whatever happened to freedom?

__________________________________________

I always like FF’s posts. He had some haters but his philosophy was bang on, same as mine for the most part.

I’d welcome more FF posts.

#131 Just your friendly neighborhood Dissident on 11.03.17 at 10:14 am

Here’s a nifty article about today’s Gen-X women’s mid-life crisis and how its tied to money, wage gaps, overprice houses, meaningless jobs, being childless, watching their biological clock expire, or having children and ‘doing it all’, the fact that they live longer than men and prob won’t have pension for that, being forced out of the workplace after 50, comparing their late 30 or 40-something adult lives on facebook, etc, etc.

Grab some prozac before your read it. Its not exactly uplifting! Men, just be glad you were not born a (Gen-X) woman. It ain’t a bag of laughs.

http://www.oprah.com/sp/new-midlife-crisis.html?utm_campaign=coschedule&utm_source=facebook_page&utm_medium=Marie%20Forleo

#132 Calgary Rip Off on 11.03.17 at 10:15 am

Thank you for your comments on Snapchat and Instagram. Both those programs are a waste of time and the owners of the programs get to keep all pictures. This form of communication is dumb. There is a simpler way: In person, or on the telephone. Screw the people that made this “app”. But then the 20 year olds and under are so smart. The biggest phrase for that age is “I dont care”. The nice thing about smart phones and apps is the uninstall and delete button.

Moving on, what is relevant is that housing remains a ripoff in Calgary. Total ripoff. My wife and I are just buying time by having a mortgage. Once there are enough funds to liveoff of in a small town or elsewhere, we are leaving. Making a six figure income at a hospital is overrated, as current medical practices at all level are oftentimes little better than a placebo and in most cases dont cure or solve whatever the problem is. Medicine is simply a legalized way to provide comfort for the dying while people get rich.

My solution to snapchat, instagram and facebook is Scripture study and prayer to God. No app required to communicate with the Big Man.

#133 Just your friendly neighborhood Dissident on 11.03.17 at 10:21 am

Btw, Trump just dumped Janet Yellen (currently hawkish on rate increases) for some dude named Jerome Powell (who is said to be all about low interest rates).

How does this change the US interest rate forecast, if at all???

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/02/trump-picks-jerome-powell-to-succeed-yellen-as-fed-chair.html

#134 Leo Trollstoy on 11.03.17 at 10:22 am

Canada’s economy is strong. This, along with the expected actions of the Fed and BoC will keep the USD and CAD range-bound.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy-blows-past-expectations-creates-35000-jobs-in-october/article36823828/

You’re welcome.

#135 Russ on 11.03.17 at 10:41 am

Gravy Train on 11.03.17 at 10:06 am

Er, um, emerging markets are up 7% last month alone.

Current weather conditions:
Burnaby — 3 degrees Celsius, feels like 0, with snow-rain showers.
Halifax — 16 degrees Celsius, feels like 16, chance of a shower.
========================

Halifax is an emerging market??

#136 Just your friendly neighborhood Dissident on 11.03.17 at 10:42 am

“Now you know why. So does he.”

Ominous words if I ever heard them. Yep, I am hoping the numbers just can’t sustain that kind of pressure. This arm wrestle is going to go down with house prices slapping the table in defeat…I’m seriously hoping.

I’d rather forfeit some profit on the sale of a condo for a trade-up than to pay $150K more for a house that will keep me a debt slave beyond my daily financial means. Debt is forever when you can’t sell that in a declining market.

#137 IHCTD9 on 11.03.17 at 10:52 am

#100 Nonplused on 11.03.17 at 12:21 am
More on #59,

And then let’t not forget that almost nothing major has changed on the Mustang since 1967, other than the addition of disc brakes and electronics. The disc brakes were available by 1972 so they don’t count anymore. Let’s look at what else defines a Mustang. Hmm, unibody construction in 2017, check in 1967. Solid rear axle in 2017 check in 1967. V-8 for some models in 2017 check in 1967. Convertible option in 2017 check in 1967. What’s different? Power windows. And $40,000 bucks.

It is easy to make a 1967 Mustang handle like a 2017, and at the time cost a lot less money if that’s what you wanted to do (think Shelby). The thing is at the time people kind of realized that was pointless.
_________________________________________

Just a quick comparison:

2017 Mustang GT
302 ci
435 HP
400 TQ
0-60 in 4.3 seconds
1/4 mile in 12.9 seconds @ 110 MPH

1967 Mustang GT

390 ci
320 HP
380 tq
0-60 7.2 seconds
1/4 mile 15.2 seconds @ 95mph

The 2017 has such vastly superior suspension, handling and road manners over the 67 that I won’t even get into it. How can you compare the pair of leaf springs the 67 has to the full lRS the 2017 has? 6 piston Brembos in 17 vs. Drum brakes in 67? The current 4 cylinder Mustang would eat a ’67 fastback in every category and get 3X the fuel economy and 100X less emissions.

I know what you’re trying to say, but the relity is a 1967 Stang is VASTLY inferior to the 2017 in EVERY category by a HUGE margin.

#138 d'Edmonton on 11.03.17 at 10:55 am

#54 Anon reader on 11.02.17 at 8:39 pm

For example, my mortgage is about 1 year of after-tax income. I enjoy trying to live well within my means and investing the excess.

There is a material difference between the interest rate and the rate to qualify for a mortgage. My interest rate will not be impacted by B20. I suspect that many other owners in the 40+ age group are in the same position.
———————————–
Hey Anon,

Good for you for being a prudent spender / saver / investor.

However, you forget that at renewal, banks are aware that if a mortgage holder wishes to switch to another bank, they will need to qualify at an additional 2% rate. So do you think that banks will not bump up their rate offered to a renewer?

#139 Wack on 11.03.17 at 10:55 am

Hey #112
Make it at home!
5 cents a cup or 9 cents for high end!

#140 Just your friendly neighborhood Dissident on 11.03.17 at 10:56 am

#48 Smoking Man on 11.02.17 at 8:29 pm

Time to burn down the schools. Let’s make T2 a drama teacher again.

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

I think you got the order wrong…if you burn down a school before you make T2 a drama teacher again, what school will he have to go back to?

*taps temple* maybe some chronological logic with that booze might help.

#141 Another Deckchair on 11.03.17 at 10:56 am

@122 Bitcoinaire;

Sorry, my “words of wisdom” flew right over your head.

And, if you missed them, you’ve missed Garths’ mantra of putting all your eggs in one basket; such is life.

Mt. Gox happened when I was 54-55ish, if I had all of my savings there, I’d have to work for ever. Now, I work because it’s fun, and I don’t have to. I make a very good per-diem, set my own goals and schedule, savings are diversified, money is *not* an issue, and every day is wonderful.

If you think another Mt. Gox style failure of any one asset can’t happen again, I feel sorry for you.

Enjoy the cat food.

#142 Tony on 11.03.17 at 11:04 am

Re: #133 Leo Trollstoy on 11.03.17 at 10:22 am

I see Alberta created 11,900 jobs both in the bank sector. “Bank”ruptcy lawyers and food”bank”s.

#143 LivinLarge on 11.03.17 at 11:15 am

“However, you forget that at renewal, banks are aware that if a mortgage holder wishes to switch to another bank, they will need to qualify at an additional 2% rate. So do you think that banks will not bump up their rate offered to a renewer?”…and you are ignoring a couple of things. First, competition. With a huge percentage of home owners already owning for 10 years or more, the banks know that those existing clients have minimal exposure risk to the B20 rules and can walk across the street at any moment so gouging their existing clients while philosophically possible, it won’t happen. Even if possible, no chartered bank is going to do it unless all their competition agree to do it and that is a conspiracy and our commissioners of financial institutions will come down on that like a ton of butter tarts.

If a renewer has demonstrated their convenant to pay, no bank underwriter is going to then say “hey let’s screw our bread and butter gig because we can”.

#144 Bitcoinaire on 11.03.17 at 11:21 am

>@Another Wheelchair

Listen, dad, you’re making a whole lot of assumptions about my asset allocation, while I’ve only talked about Bitcoin.

You clearly don’t understand the crypto market, you have too little knowledge of how this thing even works, so I don’t expect you to be able to participate in any meaningful way. You’re like the typical retail stock buyer – you “discover” some shiny new stock, get excited, dump $20k into it and then get dumped on by the whales, leaving you with heavy bags and regret.

You lack the qualities for a successful trader, period. Putting money into savings or a mortgage is the safe route for most people, so keep following Garth’s advice. It’s just not enticing to me.

#145 crossbordershopper on 11.03.17 at 11:35 am

as soon as trump tax plan gets implemented as quickly as proposed, with a few minor changes then we should all start packing our bags.
i will in detail outline why america is the greatest country in the world to live.
it starts with high pay, in us dollars, and lower taxes and better weather, thats just the start. in 2018 i will start listing in detail why people live their little lives in Canada and think they are smug and why americans have real ground beef and better tasting butter at cheaper prices etc etc.

#146 Alistair McLaughlin on 11.03.17 at 11:37 am

@ #122 Bitcoinaire

It’s a wholly different environment now.

You mean it’s a “new paradigm”?

The Bitcoin promoters are starting to sound an awful lot like tech stock promoters did in the late 90s. Bragging about their stellar gains, scoffing at the doubters for spreading FUD because we just didn’t understand the “technological paradigm shift” that had taken place. Then spring of 2000 came along…

Your spring will come too. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

#147 Fish on 11.03.17 at 11:45 am

I like carrots, but debeers shutting down in northern Ontario

#148 joblo on 11.03.17 at 11:49 am

Job Stats, Statistics Canada.
Ok Poloz jack the rates now!
Stop housing, inflation in its tracks, oh ya and folks on fixed income might benefit too!

Wait what? Why not?

#149 Fake News Again on 11.03.17 at 11:50 am

Meanwhile the denial continues in Greater Vancouver about all the foreign buyers and their “Canadian” proxies that keep skewing the market. Sales down….sure. Prices down? NOPE. Until houses are well under a million dollars….forget it. No one will believe these are all locals.

Every single day they talk about the evidence of foreign owners in the media here. Every single day.

#150 Alistair McLaughlin on 11.03.17 at 11:58 am

@ #113 Under the radar,

You are correct. A stock going to zero is not the same as being underwater on a house. If a stock goes to zero, you lose 100% if your initial investment. If a house goes underwater, you can lose many multiples of your initial up front investment. A house underwater has the potential to be much, much worse.

#151 PastThePeak on 11.03.17 at 11:59 am

#121 The Hobo Life

That has to be Garth’s favourite show from back in the day.

#152 Re.144 on 11.03.17 at 12:13 pm

‘Live their little lives ‘

And you are calling others smug ?

Where do these clowns come from ?

#153 LivinLarge on 11.03.17 at 12:17 pm

D’edmonton, the second thing you fail to realize is that after retail banking fees, mortgage renewal revenue is the easiest, safest and most lucrative revenue stream banks have.

Easy because the process is automated and requires almost no staff involvement , safest because the client has already demonstrated their propensity to make their payments on time and lucrative because while even though the nominal mortgage interest rate may be 3%, the mortgage interest is front end loaded and returning many times the nominal rate. That is the proverbial “Goose that lays a golden egg”.

#154 Ogopogo on 11.03.17 at 12:28 pm

Having a grand time with my Kelowna RE Tracker folder where I save every single property put up on realtor.ca downtown and in the Kelowna South quadrant. It’s obvious that the scummy lies of the local cartel are out of sync with reality of houses sitting unsold for months, even years.

This greedy S.O.B. started out at $600K and has gradually lowered it to this point, but to no avail. The place sits empty, with staged furniture that is no doubt costing the would-be seller a pretty penny. Let the greedy fester.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18773491/302-1905-Pandosy-Street-Kelowna-British-Columbia-V1Y1R8-Kelowna-South

#155 AGuyInVancouver on 11.03.17 at 12:33 pm

95 For those about to flop… on 11.02.17 at 11:19 pm
More proof?
O.k

3995 w 29th ave Vancouver

Originally asking 4.2

Lowered to 3.8

Just sold 3.58

Tax assessment 4.1…
_ _ _
Still way to high a price for a house that was maybe $1 million and change ten years ago. You can bet that was offshore money buying.

#156 Triple Top on 11.03.17 at 12:43 pm

#14 smartalox

Triple top?
Technical analysis is as useful as astrology.
Means zilch.

Maybe you are just one if these:
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/praying-for-a-real-estate-crash/

#157 IHCTD9 on 11.03.17 at 12:50 pm

I hope every Canadian who does not think exactly like the Liberals is paying attention…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/governor-general-speech-julie-payette-climate-change-1.4384481

If you’re not, I’ll summarize:

If you happen to think differently than the Federal Liberal Party of Canada, then they think you are a stupid oaf living in the stone age.

Also, you can expect to be personally insulted by our non elected public officials.

Diversity is our strength my @ss.

#158 Lost....but not leased on 11.03.17 at 12:55 pm

Mustangs…1967 vs 2017

re: technology
A while back I helped a friend do some moving.
They had purchased a mini- van with all the bells and whistles, including that video monitor for the back end.

I noticed the back corner of the mini van was punched in. I asked what happened and he confided he was watching the video monitor, had a blind spot and hit a tree. I also see our Gov’t is making this feature mandatory.

Point is, we have far to much technology being shoved down our throats ,it not only becomes overwhelming, but it dulls our minds, instincts , reflexes etc.

This ain’t progress, its regression.

#159 Smartalox on 11.03.17 at 1:32 pm

@ Guy in Vancouver #59
@ Nonplused #100, #101
@ IHTDC9 #136

Relax: Have 60’s era mustang styling AND 21st century performance:

http://www.revology-cars.com

#160 Smartalox on 11.03.17 at 1:33 pm

Sorry, got the web page wrong:

http://revologycars.com/

#161 NEVER GIVE UP on 11.03.17 at 1:44 pm

Beats me. I come here for the bitches. And puppies.
==================================
I come here for the Bitching!

#162 LivinLarge on 11.03.17 at 1:50 pm

“If a house goes underwater, you can lose many multiples of your initial up front investment. A house underwater has the potential to be much, much worse.”… over simplification. If a stock goes to zero you lose all your money and have nothing, not even hope. If you’re underwater on a mortgage you still have a house with the real expectation that its price will rise in the future, distant or near future.

There is no history in Canada (yet) of a housing price bubble ever collapsing and then never recovering. Yes, the early 90s bubble took a few years to reinflate to precollapse values but never did any house simply cease to exist.

So, yes it gets painfully expensive and frustrating, continually paying for a house that you are underwater in but you still have a home and the history supported presumption that you won’t always be underwater if you continue your payments. If the house is an investment property and not your home then that’s an inherent investment risk.

#163 Tony on 11.03.17 at 1:56 pm

Re: #147 joblo on 11.03.17 at 11:49 am

Like I said before no growth would come out of Ontario (renovations are complete and there’s no new listings) and they invented jobs in Alberta in the jobs report. Alberta will either be one giant ghost town (province) or they’ll try to turn Alberta into a retirement community for the retirees from Vancouver and Victoria. Buy ten homes for the price of one back home will be their slogan.

#164 Dups on 11.03.17 at 2:13 pm

What is your take on computer run AI ETF?

http://business.financialpost.com/news/worlds-first-ai-run-global-etf-makes-its-own-managers-nervous

Sex with a robot. — Garth

#165 Mike in Edmonton on 11.03.17 at 2:20 pm

Personally here’s what I think will (continue) to happen here in Alberta… IF B-20 really does put a 20% strangle hold on credit (which I think it will), home owners are split into 2 groups:

1) The boomers that are many downsizing and pretty much own their own outright (ie tons of equity in it). If they need to lower their price to sell, then they will.

2) The younger ones shacking up with a new spouse, moving to a different city or ‘hood – If they have no equity, they won’t sell for a lose. They’ll rent out there home, even if it means them massively subsidizing the renters, and also (most likely) having negative cash flow on it. They’re renting to survive. They will gladly pay $200/month and have their renters pay the rest in order to very slowly hopefully build some equity in it for a year, 2 years, etc until either house prices rise (wishful thinking) or until they’ve built enough equity to sell for a complete wash and break even on what’s left on their mortgage, and will never realize the actual money the lost while stuck renting it out.

Now, that’s assuming the 2 groups above aren’t desperate to sell like those that lost their jobs, are in the middle of a divorce, etc.

Trust me… It’ll happen. It’s happening right now. I see it frequently with my friends right now. Insane asking prices on crappy places they bought when single. Rents in Calgary have decreased like 40% (I’ve reported these stats before from a close friend that was in the rental market).

That being said, I think most markets will vary a bit in how everything plays out and I sure as heck have no idea how it’ll play out here in Alberta. House prices have already dropped slightly (despite MSM reports), and I would imagine they’ll only go down more next year.

#166 TheDood on 11.03.17 at 2:29 pm

#59 AGuyInVancouver on 11.02.17 at 8:54 pm
________________________________
Sorry, but not even in close. Anyone who does a back to back drive in a 2017 Mustang with a 1967 model would be appalled at the original model’s crappy handling on it’s skinny bias ply tires and laughable braking. That’s not even taking into account how much safer the new model is.
____________________________________
You don’t buy a Mustang for its handling, braking, and safety. You buy a Mustang to make noise and go fast in a straight line. For that, I would take an old one any day! Not as fast as the new ones for sure, but for the show off factor, not even close.

If you want handling, braking, and safety, forget the Mustang……….you buy Japanese or German!

#167 Alistair McLaughlin on 11.03.17 at 2:38 pm

@#161 Livinlarge If a stock goes to zero you lose all your money and have nothing, not even hope.

Um, I once bought a stock that went to zero after the company was suspended from trading and the creditors swooped in. (Pangeo Pharma in early 2000s). Total loss? About $3000. In other words, about the same amount of money a detached suburban GTA homeowner can lose if his house devalues by 0.4%.

That $3000 represented neither “all my money” nor a loss of all hope. Nor was I ever underwater at any point. Because I never borrowed anything to buy the stock. Your hypothetical homeowner who is underwater will be just fine, provided he won’t get divorced, lose his job, get sick, get transferred, or become widowed or experience any other life event during the time in which he is underwater.

I’m not oversimplifying anything. You’re overcomplicating it. Leverage vs. no leverage. That’s all you need to know. The guy who takes on leverage will ALWAYS be facing higher risks than the guy who doesn’t.

#168 joblo on 11.03.17 at 2:59 pm

#162 Tony
“Alberta will either be one giant ghost town (province) or they’ll try to turn Alberta into a retirement community for the retirees from Vancouver and Victoria.”

I hear ya, but as it stands today this global warming thing ( looks like its snowin like a banshee and minus 12 celsius) aint workin out to well for berta and aint gonna attract any wrinklies.

#169 joblo on 11.03.17 at 3:00 pm

Giant ghost province she is

#170 Newcomer on 11.03.17 at 3:27 pm

#106 Howard on 11.03.17 at 4:49 am

That Japan?

Heaven forbid Canada become like that!
—————

The question at hand was whether current immigration numbers explain current and expected RE price increases. They don’t.

A plateauing or decline in population levels doesn’t have to be a bad thing but it messes things up. I have spent big chunks of my life in Japan and essentially everyone there agrees that “things were better” when the population was growing. In 2014, the population shrank by 125,000 people. The next year it lost 250,000. This year, it’s 300,000. Companies, and the individuals that they employ, find it easier to grow when the market they serve is growing. These days, people work harder for less. Many people are poor to the level of gross deprivation and even starvation, which would have been unthinkable in the 50s-80s.

From a RE point of view, it’s almost the opposite of the old adage, “Buy land, they’re not making it anymore.” In the past three years over a half a million people’s worth of land has been put up for grabs.

#171 Condos Suck been there done that on 11.03.17 at 3:59 pm

#89 Lost…but not leased on 11.02.17 at 10:41 pm

The condo market flusssshhh

IMHO condos are the BITCOIN of Real Estate( or vice versa)

An old realtor repeated the time worn adage about Real Estate..aka “they are not making anymore…”

WRONG…the old rules no longer apply.

Condos are effectively “AIR “RE…they are built as high as local gov’t allow with unbridled abandon far in excess of need. It appears Gov’t, through various policies, have funnelled homebuyers and investors into condos as opposed to SFH.

SFH will undergo a correction per se, but the ethereal condo market has all the signs of collapsing into oblivion, which could be orders of magnitude based on the sheer volume.

Condo owners should be extremely nervous and potential condo buyers should wake up from the pre-sale trance.
……………………………………………………………
Condos are the worst and mean the worst investment any smart person could ever through their cash at. The uncontrollable fees are the real killer and there isn’t a dam thing you can do about it moisters. I just keep thinking of all those boomers sitting 100 meters up in their little cubicals watching reruns of Survivor in their depends. Who is going to purchase your little survivor cubical when your wrinkly.

#172 d'Edmonton on 11.03.17 at 4:12 pm

#142 LivinLarge on 11.03.17 at 11:15 am
#152 LivinLarge on 11.03.17 at 12:17 pm

I guess you’re right. If homeowners have sufficient stable income to qualify even at +2%, it makes sense for a bank to try retain them as customers.

I wonder what happens ‘at the margin’ though. I’m thinking of those who bought near the peak or have large HELOCs and are impacted by negative equity in a declining market.

#173 Overheardyou on 11.03.17 at 4:13 pm

#46 prairie person on 11.02.17 at 8:24 pm
Went downtown in Victoria today. Hadn’t been for a while. Shocking. Entire blocks have disappeared. Lots of big holes in the ground, bldgs in various stages of rising up. If we are only months away from Armageddon a lot of builders are going to lose money, lots of money But that happens every time there is a downturn. Projects take so long to come to completion. Tradesmen lose their shirts. Last time one company put all the bathrooms into a condo project. It went belly up and so did the company that put in the bathrooms. It isn’t just the initial developer who loses. The grief is spread far and wide. All those bills not paid. All those profits not made. When you wish a housing crash, bankruptcies, it isn’t just the rich developers, the real estate agents who take a beating.

Quite honestly, it’s a good thing there are crashes. It shows greed and self interest is always destructive. It shows that there is no easy way to get rich. Hopefully they learn something from their mistakes. Probably not though.

#174 AGuyInVancouver on 11.03.17 at 4:21 pm

#162 Tony on 11.03.17 at 1:56 pm
Re: #147 joblo on 11.03.17 at 11:49 am

Like I said before no growth would come out of Ontario (renovations are complete and there’s no new listings) and they invented jobs in Alberta in the jobs report. Alberta will either be one giant ghost town (province) or they’ll try to turn Alberta into a retirement community for the retirees from Vancouver and Victoria. Buy ten homes for the price of one back home will be their slogan.
_ _ _
Nope, looks like a lot of jobs growth across the country. In fact the most full time ever:
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy-blows-past-expectations-creates-35000-jobs-in-october/article36823828/

#175 Mark on 11.03.17 at 4:41 pm

“There is no history in Canada (yet) of a housing price bubble ever collapsing and then never recovering. Yes, the early 90s bubble took a few years to reinflate to precollapse values but never did any house simply cease to exist.”

That’s true, but while houses were stagnating and falling in the 1990s, for example, other investments, particularly the stock market, took off. A mere down-payment, invested in the TSE index, in 1990 (ie: 25% down) was, by the time the decade was up, enough to buy the property outright, in cash, without a mortgage. The combination of depreciation in housing, and appreciation in the stock market.

This time around, it seems likely they’ll have to run a very prolonged period of low interest rates to keep the system suitably liquid and moving as the Canadian economy goes into a long-term slowdown, the result of shedding excess activity in the RE sector, and the usual sort of mean-reverting overshoot that will occur. If rates are 1% for the next decade, the TSX is an absolute steal at current prices. Low rates drive extreme profitability in sectors like banking, and a good chunk of Canada’s publicly traded business sector is now so deeply under-leveraged that re-leveraging could provide for some pretty extreme shareholder returns.

#176 Mark on 11.03.17 at 4:47 pm

“I wonder what happens ‘at the margin’ though. I’m thinking of those who bought near the peak or have large HELOCs and are impacted by negative equity in a declining market.”

The bankers will (collectively, but individually) tell the worst cases that they’re basically lost causes, the loans will ultimately default and CMHC subprime mortgage insurance will be collected upon. For other cases of negative equity where there is still decent employment, the banks will be predatory, only offering the ‘posted rate’, which, for most Canadians accustomed to the ultra-low ‘discounted’ rates, will be quite a lifestyle shock.

An interesting intellectual exercise would be go to into the publicly stated financials of a major bank, such as TD or RY, and substitute the posted rates for the actual rates. And calculate the sort of impact such would have to the bottom line. It is for this reason that there is likely a lot of upside for Canadian bank stocks. Recall that in the 1990s , the average big-5 bank quadrupled and did extremely well in the falling/stagnant RE market until Finance Minister Paul Martin put a kibosh on bank merger proposals.

#177 re., 155 Triple Top on 11.03.17 at 4:52 pm

#14 smartalox

Triple top?
Technical analysis is as useful as astrology.
Means zilch.
…………….

WRONG. You don’t understand its limitations, then with a broad paintbrush draw an ignorant conclusion

Canopy Groth closed the day with a bullish engulfing pattern on higher volume. This anatomy has a very high PROBABLILTY of further short-term upward movement. I bought near the close having observed its obvious day’s pattern

WATCH what it does early next week. If i’m right?…did I just get lucky?……we shall see :)

#178 VictoriaMan on 11.03.17 at 5:12 pm

Amazing that Victoria refuses to acknowledge their situation, as well. “This is the sign of a healthy market” Oh, stuff it. It’s not healthy, people who buy in Victoria right now are crazy. Or just super wealthy…this is going to turn into rich people island in no time, exclusively.

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/victoria-real-estate-fewer-listings-fewer-sales-in-october-1.23081229

#179 oncebittwiceshy on 11.03.17 at 5:12 pm

LivinLarge: “With a huge percentage of home owners already owning for 10 years or more, the banks know that those existing clients have minimal exposure risk to the B20 rules”
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

In a perfect world, my friend you might actually be right. However, this is as far from perfect as you can get. There's a bigger chance that those 10 yr. mortgage holders are in even deeper debt because they've been LivinLarge.

https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/news/2017/06/fcac_report_homeequitylinesofcreditmayputconsumersatrisk.html

Quick Facts
Banks reported to FCAC that a readvanceable mortgage is now the default option offered to credit worthy mortgage customers with down payments of at least 20 percent.
Of the approximate 3 million HELOC accounts, 80 percent were held under readvanceable mortgages in 2016.
The number of households that have a HELOC and a mortgage secured against their home has increased by nearly 40 percent since 2011.
40 percent of consumers do not make regular payments toward their HELOC principal.
25 percent of consumers pay only the interest or make the minimum payment.
Most consumers do not repay their HELOC in full until they sell their home.

Readvanceable mortgages – "However, it also allows consumers to make interest-only payments which can result in homeowners carrying debt for longer periods. In addition, it can encourage consumers to add to their debt load, which could put stress on Canadian households, at a time when they are carrying record amounts of debt."

#180 Gravy Train on 11.03.17 at 5:15 pm

#134 Russ on 11.03.17 at 10:41 am
“Halifax is an emerging market??”

Russ, you didn’t have the grades to go to college, did you? :)

#181 Braj on 11.03.17 at 5:31 pm

#23 Engineer on 11.02.17 at 7:19 pm
#8
No. Economics is a useless degree. Most who take that end up working as bank tellers or some other menial job.

***

I graduated Civil, earn 55k.

My friend who went to the same school got a Masters in Economics is earning twice as much.

Watch your mouth son.

#182 tbone on 11.03.17 at 5:35 pm

Yep the new stang doesn’t have a solid axle anymore.
I would have bought one already if I had a third parking spot. I’m glad I don’t , as I would of lost my license by now.I test drove the GT . Exhaust note is incredible .

#183 MF on 11.03.17 at 5:38 pm

#170 Condos Suck been there done that on 11.03.17 at 3:59 pm

“Condos are the worst and mean the worst investment any smart person could ever through their cash at. The uncontrollable fees are the real killer and there isn’t a dam thing you can do about it moisters. I just keep thinking of all those boomers sitting 100 meters up in their little cubicals watching reruns of Survivor in their depends. Who is going to purchase your little survivor cubical when your wrinkly.”

-Lol a little graphic. Thanks for that.

I somewhat disagree on the condo thing.

First, we can’t diss condos too much because people have made money on them. Couple of my friends bought in 2010-2013, sold when the market went crazy, and bought houses (that have also appreciated like crazy). Many were pre construction and the ROI was in the 50% range.

Secondly, some people enjoy condo life for it’s simplicity (like me). No yard work or grass mowing. There is also a sense of security (whether real or imagined). People will pay maintenance fees for this luxury.

Third, I’d rather have a nice condo in a great area than a huge house in the middle of nowhere. Condo buildings can sprout up in the middle of the action, houses (unless you want to pay millions and millions) cannot.

It’s a life of convenience many boomers will be looking to spend their house lottery tickets on.

MF

#184 Braj on 11.03.17 at 5:40 pm

#57 Bitcoinnaire on 11.02.17 at 8:46 pm
>@15 TheSpangler
>You convert any of those amounts to cash yet?

$60K USD several weeks ago to test the waters for my tax filing in 2018. My principle investment was $20K US back in early 2013.

You sell your coins on an exchange, except without any brokers or other nonsense, to willing market buyers at global market prices. I use Kraken for fiat, which has high volumes and lets you trade the BTC/CAD or USD pairs; I sold 12 coins within 45 minutes. Then you simply request a withdrawal, which is wire transferred to your bank.

I’m holding the rest of the coins for the long haul, this is the embryonic form of an entirely new economy.

>@33 Asspain

It was amusing to hear the FUD throughout 2013, 2014, 2015 by those without the courage, means or computer literacy to gain exposure to Bitcoin. Now it’s just tedious and sad. Enjoy those dizzying 3% stock market gains granpa, in a space littered with institutional investors, computerized algorithms and brokers which bet against your every position. This magic internet money is highly sought-after and people are paying for it with hard-earned fiat.

>@38 Stone
>That sounds counterintuitive. Why would you sell bitcoin to buy a house? Why would you sell period? Won’t it just go up indefinitely?

Mom separated from dad and needs a place to live, near me. Plus I deserve a second-hand Porsche.

I’ve sold only a small part of my stash to test the taxation regimen.

***

You think it’s worth buying now or wait for a crash? I definitely see potential..

#185 LivinLarge on 11.03.17 at 6:35 pm

Oncebitten, I spent 10 years in bank credit underwriting and although Helocs changed the playing field a bit, that bt isn’t much. Yes, secured debt is onerous for the consumer, it is the true darling for banks…it creates wonderful customer retention.

It may seem logical to you that the gnomes at the banks truly care about our indebtedness for our well being but they really don’t. Once the chartereds started to allow preauthorized debiting from a competitor institution and tied selling was prohibited by the Bank Act, the gnomes accepted that they had to keep their customers in the paddock like a pusher keeps an addict at the door.

People are the same now and they always have been and always will be and the banks from the board on down need to keep their addicts always wanting a fix so the quarterly reports keep getting better. As long as the banks can count on front end loaded mortgage interest then they will continue to lend and keep borrowers who prove their willingness to pay. Now if the world ever does change and people en mass start defaulting then there will be some scrambling by the banks but they survived and continue to lend in the seventies when interest rates went into double digits and they will continue long into the future.

#186 Russ on 11.03.17 at 7:00 pm

Gravy Train on 11.03.17 at 5:15 pm

#134 Russ on 11.03.17 at 10:41 am
“Halifax is an emerging market??”

Russ, you didn’t have the grades to go to college, did you? :)
===================

I didn’t go to college, except for part time Jazz study.
‘ didn’t see the point of accumulating debt AND missing out on work years with self-study options for my field.

Current earnings is a hair under a 1%er. And you?

Are you a teacher, without a sense o’ humour?

#187 Russ on 11.03.17 at 7:06 pm

Gravy Train on 11.03.17 at 5:15 pm

#134 Russ on 11.03.17 at 10:41 am
“Halifax is an emerging market??”

Russ, you didn’t have the grades to go to college, did you? :)
====================

Pardon me. I hit submit too early because I was laughing.

What emerging market opportunities do you suggest?

All I have is some ishare XEF, which has a bit of India and neighbours.

#188 Tony on 11.03.17 at 7:12 pm

Re: #182 MF on 11.03.17 at 5:38 pm

Better reread what he said because condos are the worst investment anyone could make. A few things may have been worst, cocoa and uranium but those two will bounce back condos never do.

#189 LivinLarge on 11.03.17 at 7:30 pm

Mark, “It is for this reason that there is likely a lot of upside for Canadian bank stocks.” damn straight there is, I am and have been for 17, counting on it.

You have to look at the 5 Sisters of Canadian banking in their position of being controlled by the Bank Act, rather than as truly free to act corporations.

Back in about ’81 the newly minted revision of the Bank Act allowed the then Schedule 1 chartereds to get into direct mortgage lending. Before that the bank had to have owned a separate Trustco to do any direct to consumer mortgage lending. So, since that single change, the chartered Sched1 banks have gone from very minor mortgage players to their now doninant positions. Enormous diversification.

The, remember how you traded stocks through the 80s and early 90s…through independent stock brokerages that it. How many independent (non bank owned) brokerages are there now? Another bank act change that allowed enormous new diversification ops.

Foreign ownership rules keep the DBs, Credit Suisses and Citi banks of the world from sucking our chartered up like they have a habit of doing in so many other parts of the world. It also kept all but one Canadian charterd from having anything more than a passing exposure to the subprime meltdown and derivative mess.

This may read like I’m cherry picking dates to inflate a point but it is my actual personal experience.

In early 2000 I invested a large windfall into two bank’s shares equally. I knew something very valuable and that was that all our big five split their shares on a relatively predictable basis and that point was rapidly approaching for at least the two banks I bought. A year later one of those split (1:1 stock dividend) and the other split in 2006. I bought the first one at about $60/share and it doubled to a little over $30 and even with all the 09-12 crap, that bank is now trading at about $100 so, in 17 years, even with a 4 year blood bath on the share price, 1 more than tripled my capital value and all the while kept pulling in about 3% in dividends. The other “fact” I knew was that in all of recorded history Canadian Sched1 chartereds had never once missed a dividend nor even once reduced their common share dividend. Not even through the Depression. So, while I could lose betting on the banks over the long haul, there would have to be a thermonuclear attack in North America for that to ever happen.

Now, my two long haul banks are hovering around $100 right now and that is another flex point for splitting. A board lot is now inching over $10,000 and no bank board wants that, it drives down retail investors.

So, yes indeedy, no matter what happens, our banks are almost a license to print money…over a 10-20 year time frame.

For me, my only real risk in 2000 was a premature death because I was 45 at the time and the $ was a tax feee windfall.

#190 Old Ron the Realtor on 11.03.17 at 9:46 pm

Very good volume of sales out there folks. Well over 7,000 in October in the GTA. Active listings a little less than 19,000. It is as balanced a market as I have seen in a long time.

#191 Fake News Again on 11.03.17 at 11:33 pm

“Yes, in the first week of November, where there’s a socialist government now in power determined to bring in a slate of land restrictions and other equity-sucking measures to accompany the Empty Houses Tax and the Foreign Buyers Tax”

Yes. Just like every other “foreign buyer money parking country” has done. Examples being Australia, New Zealand, the UK, Singapore and Switzerland to name a few.

Its just like Canada – like it ALWAYS DOES – did it last.

#192 Gotta Get Out of Calgary on 11.04.17 at 12:55 am

Lost…but not leased on 11.02.17 at 10:41 pm

“IMHO condos are the BITCOIN of Real Estate( or vice versa)”

—————————————————–
I’ve always viewed condos as the “timeshares” of residential real estate. What do you really own?

Pay a lot of money initially for the privilege of continuing to pay more on an ongoing basis. Once you’ve paid the mortgage off, you’re still paying fees each month and those keep going up. I’ve seen and heard enough of the financial troubles condo owners get into with increasing fees and special assessments from news media, friends, and colleagues at work.

#193 steerage steeward on 11.04.17 at 3:35 am

Canada is not going to end well when most people try to be in as much dealt as they can be

I save 45% of my take home pay, because I have a plan

#194 steerage steeward on 11.04.17 at 3:41 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TU8awoZDae0&list=PLwALQdqjNQHPCXzuuPnl4bBENAm8p0Uk8