Trick or treat

Utterly discouraged, Ted bailed on YVR. He also has a wife issue.

‘She doesn’t want to rent anymore and she doesn’t want to get priced out again on Vancouver “Island (our new home) like we did in Vancouver,” he says. “Further complicating things, my dad passed away and my Mum needs to move in with us asap for family support and we all want something stable.”

Bad timing, Ted?

“I know all about the upcoming stress test that you have been foaming at the mouth about (dog reference) and of course I’m worried about buying now being terrible timing. That said, I’m wondering what you think about the possibility that the stress test might put more pressure on the lower end of the market making it stable or even causing upward pressure because mortgage loans would be smaller and move up buyers would be restricted. Similar to what has happened in Vancouver, where condos and townhouses continue to go up while houses are flat or declining slightly because people can only afford the low end.  Does this make any sense, or am I grasping at straws?”

Trying to time the real estate market is as hard as figuring out when to buy SnapChat stock (never). Today there are immense variable and dark unknowns. Looks like mortgage rates will be higher by the spring, pushing up against 3.75% at the banks for a fiver. With the stress test, that means buyers would have to qualify at 5.75% – a level many of the Nobel-awarded macroeconomists who populate this pathetic blog’s steerage section thought could never happen.

What will this do?

In two words: change everything. So the advice being thrown around liberally by realtors and mortgage dudes – that people should get pre-qualified immediately so they can scoop up a house with a max mortgage in January – is insane. Unethical. Irresponsible. Unprincipled. Dangerous. If OSFI holds banks’ feet to the fire on the new regs (almost guaranteed) we’ll be into an era of real estate financing previously unseen. Every single buyer in need of financing will be affected, regardless of how much equity/down payment they have.

Realtors and mortgage brokers are panicked because approved mortgages will be significantly smaller, buyers will afford less, and the entire market will have to reprice. The more they can push buyers into accelerating decisions based on fear, the more they mitigate against the drought that could be coming as sellers resist reductions and sales collapse as a result.

Meanwhile, look at current conditions leading us into this morass:

CMHC, the official federal pimp of residential real estate, just declared five major cities to be red zones – “highly vulnerable” and at risk because houses cost too damn much. In Toronto, “high house prices cannot be explained by fundamental economic drivers such as income and population growth,” while in Hamilton, “prices continue to grow more quickly than levels supported by economic and demographic fundamentals.” Ditto Vancouver and Victoria. Vacancy rates in Edmonton and Calgary show “serious overbuilding” has also put the entire market at risk.

Meanwhile in the GTA, look what happened to the red-hot new housing sector that just months ago pawned scenes like this:

The latest numbers are stunners. Preconstruction sales of low-rise homes have collapsed 73% from last year. Condo sales are also plopping, off 37%. There are no more riots outside sales offices.

“The launch frenzy that had characterized the market over the past year is over,” says Altus Group, which mines the data. Prices are also coming off as the benchmark for a low-rise new-built dropped 8.5% between July and September. Of course, at $1.2 million, it’s insanely expensive, and in the OSFI stress test crosshairs.

In fact, the only buyers who will not be affected by what’s coming are those sitting on a pile of cash who need not worry about qualifying for anything, and can swoop into a distressed marketplace. And are they buying now? Nope. Of course not. If you’ve been astute enough to cobble together a million or two, chances are you don’t take advice from Monster Mortgage or a Re/Max guy with beads of sweat on his lip.

Back to Ted.

He’s probably right. In the next six months buyers will have less to spend while most sellers will be unrealistic. Those who need to make a purchase, or have been coerced into it, will chase listings they can actually afford. More sales at the bottom on the market, while the top simply atrophies. Six months after that, prices will have moved down in the upper ranges and benchmark prices will be back where they were when this blog was sexually active.

As always, Ted, only buy if you can afford it. A house and a home are not the same thing. Tell her that. Good luck.

130 comments ↓

#1 Royal City Dweller on 10.27.17 at 6:00 pm

FURST!
And… excellent post!

#2 Johnny D on 10.27.17 at 6:11 pm

Has that issue of greaterfool.ca being banned been resolved?

Unresolved. — Garth

#3 LivinLarge on 10.27.17 at 6:18 pm

“Every single buyer in need of financing will be affected, regardless of how much equity/down payment they have”… and you don’t think that’s just a little hyperbolic???

Maybe half or more existing homeowners today will have as much as 50% equity in their home so they want to move up a little…is this “impact actually much of an issue if they don’t go whole hog off the charts new house horny? Sure their cave has dropped in resale value as well but with 50% equity, I’m betting that they can survive any B20 scrutiny without getting out of bed.

The new house horny? Yea, that’s an entirely different story. If they were stretching the finances before the test then they’re burnt toast after but all those diligent old school folks sitting paid off (count me in that group) or in sight of that holy ground, are just looking at this with a quizzical “what me worry?” expression.

Inpacted? Sure, but for us, it’s a non issue.

#4 TraderX on 10.27.17 at 6:23 pm

Ted, Vancouver Island is awesome… buy what you need and make this place your home!! Then just forget about it and enjoy life… your home isn’t an investment, it is your home.

#5 Royal City Dweller on 10.27.17 at 6:23 pm

Buying right now is akin to committing a financial suicide.
Wait to vulch. The time has not come yet.
The market has been through a lot in the past 12 months. Frenzied activity, double digit price increases, mortgage rule changes and increased interest rates have all had an effect on the market.
OSFI test is not yet even there, but it will be.
Even if you want to buy a home because you can afford it and want a place to live you should wait: why pay more?

#6 Angry Migtow on 10.27.17 at 6:25 pm

Remember when Poloz hiked on September 06, 2017, I sold $1 Canadian dollar for 80.5 cents when the Loonie day trade was at 83 cents?

Remember that a woman nagged on here telling me I was ripped off and I shouldn’t have sold my Canadian dollars?

Today, C$1.33=us$1.00
https://www.bmo.com/home/personal/banking/rates/foreign-exchange

I wonder if a shill for Morneau was discouraging me from purchasing American dollars so that Morneau can purchase another villa in France.

I’m a BMO customer so I don’t pay any “commission”, but I pay either the online rate or cash rate. Online rate is cheaper to convert.

#7 GrumpyPanda on 10.27.17 at 6:25 pm

The video reminded me of the GTA in 1989 when a builder had people race across a muddy field to buy houses. Seemed crazy to me at the time. Good thing people are so much smarter now.

#8 NOT ALL BUYERS on 10.27.17 at 6:35 pm

‘Every single buyer in need of financing will be affected, regardless of how much equity/down payment they have.’

Those refinancing will not need to qualify at the stress tests unless they change banks. Most people now keep with their current bank when they renew their mortgage. At most, those refinancing with their current lender will see a little less of a competitive rate since the banks know they have a captive audience.

So the overwhelming majority of those with homes will still be able to enjoy the historically low interest rates while new buyers will be forced – unfairly – to qualify at much higher rates.

His concerns of having the lower end of the market bid up are justified. At the middle and top of the market, you have lateral moves from those with massive equity, will be unaffected – and as such, the prices will be unaffected.

B20 only impacts new buyers really.

#9 tccontrarian on 10.27.17 at 6:36 pm

“There are no more riots outside sales offices.”-GT
———————————————————–

No, the riots have moved to lawyers’ offices and, possibley the courts, as many deals are coming undone.

What a riot! LOL

TCC

#10 NOT ALL BUYERS on 10.27.17 at 6:40 pm

#4 TraderX on 10.27.17 at 6:23 pm

Ted, Vancouver Island is awesome… buy what you need and make this place your home!! Then just forget about it and enjoy life… your home isn’t an investment, it is your home.

Oh yes Ted, Vancouver Island is great – Victoria real estate is the second most expensive in Canada; the price contagion has spread throughout the Island where there are no high paying jobs except if you are a civil servant in Victoria; economic fundamentals means nothing there just like in Vancouver; and it has one of the lowest average family incomes in Canada. Add in the super expensive ferries to ever leave the Island and the additional air fare to fly anywhere but Vancouver, and life is grand!

#11 tccontrarian on 10.27.17 at 6:41 pm

To those who think a price drop of 30% isn’t likely, I’d like to say that I bought my 1st house (in Burnaby), late 1999 for 25% LESS than what the seller had bought it for about 18 months earlier (it was from a builder in forclosure).

Logically, if prices CAN drop 25% from a mini-bubble, then 50% drop from a MAJOR bubble is very, very likely. In fact, I’ve made a couple bets with people in my area who are convinced that 50% is never going to happen.

Money in bank, I say…

TCC

#12 Jimmy on 10.27.17 at 6:47 pm

Ted, none of this matters.

She. Wants. A. House.

#13 crossbordershopper on 10.27.17 at 6:49 pm

Canada is a hard place to make a buck and to live well. My week living in Milton Ontario with an old friend at his townhouse outlined how slavery in the 21st centry looks like.
He pays $1900 month rent plus utilities, after car payment, insurance, bla bla bla he ends up with about 100 month he saids, he actually lives off the government child tax benefit he saids, he saids on the 20th, is when he actually has a few hundred bucks in his pocket otherwise, he works on zero working capital, as quickly as its deposited for him and his wife all the thieves are lined up.
this 407 is crazy, the fees etc, either way, so i said run away and be a free slave, to a small town in northern ontario where you can live for next to nothing on a farm, of another friend, he said how do i walk away, i said just like a slave in the middle of the night, you simply leave the truck the houses etc, and pack your stuff and i can come and pick you up.
i said you know you are working for nothing, like nothing, not even fun, why bother, what a country.
go the the usa, if it works out, great you stay and have a good life, if it doesnt you can be a free slave in Canada. You have the luxury of living in a middle class life, with nothing techincally you own, just some old furniture,

#14 Nonplused on 10.27.17 at 6:51 pm

Well one thing I can comment on is that flying in to Calgary now looks a lot like flying into Seattle or Portland did in 2008. Lots of roads with no houses. Maybe it’s just around the airport.

Snapchat got a mention and I have to admit that I don’t understand the business model of perhaps all of the FANGS. Can these internet sites really live off advertising revenue? Like radio stations? Would anybody pay to be on Facebook or Snapchat? Does anybody even look at the ads? I think I click on about as many ads on YouTube as do here on Greater Fool (so zero). What happens when the advertisers figure out that all the money they pay Snapchat is utterly wasted because even though the ad is on the screen the eyeball ignores it? Who ever watches an ad longer than it takes for the “Skip” button to appear?

The other business model I can’t figure out is internet porn. I mean it is literally everywhere on the internet now, more naked people than I thought there were people, but yet you don’t have to pay for it. Who is funding all this? Why? Are enough people really joining the dating sites to pay for all this? But at least they aren’t listed. Most of them, and the gambling on line casinos, are fronts for organized crime. The “legitimate” business.

The world is a strange place. The universe even stranger. Why is it even here? Scientists don’t know, only that it is. Did Dog create it? If so why would he do something so reckless and create so much suffering? All that happens is every creature has to get up in the morning, go find some food which could probably be another creature, hopefully have some offspring, and then die either of disease or because it is also being eaten. Seems a pretty funny system for a benevolent being to create.

Oh well Ted, go out and buy yourself a house! It’ll give you some place to hide when the nuclear bombs or the glaciers or the volcanoes or the global warning/cooling/climate change comes. Well for a little while anyway, but as long as you’ll need it!

#15 When the Whip Comes Down on 10.27.17 at 7:02 pm

The avg benchmark detached price in Vic has flattened over the July and August after having come down slightly from June. However the pricier areas like Oak Bay have kept climbing slowly, but not huge month over month jumps. Will be interesting to see the VREB stats next week and what happens to benchmark prices in November/December.

#16 waiting on the westcoast on 10.27.17 at 7:06 pm

Garth says… “Six months after that, prices will have moved down in the upper ranges and benchmark prices will be back where they were when this blog was sexually active.”

Garth – yes it’s been a long sad while since my genX juices were flowing… ;-)

I hope the insanity is nearly over. Wait a couple of years for more realistic multiples and then get in.

My wife will love me again! Kids won’t think we are paranoid bears! There really will be rainbows and unicorns celebrating in the streets. Let it be so… ;-)

#17 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.27.17 at 7:09 pm

Ted
‘Only buy if you can afford it”

Or

“if you dont mind watching the value of your new house purchase wither while you still make mortgage payments on the original price….”

$10k? $20? $50? $100k?
What financial pain are you willing to endure to stop the wife from whining?
Good luck.

#18 UncleScrooge on 10.27.17 at 7:10 pm

What was that stuff Carrick was saying in Friday’s Globe about making a smaller down payment to avoid the stress test?! I thought the stress test was applied to everyone getting a mortgage.

#19 Halved. on 10.27.17 at 7:12 pm

benchmark prices will be back where they were when this blog was sexually active.

We are talking March 2009 here.

Vancouver HPI in Mar’09 was at 133.22
In Sep’17 it was 275.85

So Garth is saying: get ready for -52% in a year from now.

Exaggerate much? – Garth

#20 jess on 10.27.17 at 7:14 pm

the known knowns
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-the-dea-efforts-to-crack-down-on-the-opioid-epidemic-were-derailed/

billionaire arrested

More than a decade after opioid painkillers first exploded across the U.S., John Kapoor found an aggressive way to sell even more, according to prosecutors: He began bribing doctors to prescribe them.

====
pruitts replacement “industry” informing the epa?
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/10/27/16552766/epa-science-advisory-board-scientific-counselors

Insys, which has come under fire before for using doctors with troubled histories to promote or consult on its products, faces new claims from Illinois’ attorney general.

by Jessica Huseman Aug. 29, 2016, 12:22 p.m. EDT

Speakers’ fees, dinners, entertainment, cash — federal charges unsealed Thursday claim Kapoor’s striving company, Insys Therapeutics Inc., employed all of that and more to spur prescriptions of a highly addictive fentanyl-based drug intended only for cancer patients.

https://www.propublica.org/article/illinois-sues-controversial-drug-maker-over-deceptive-marketing-practices

#21 rainclouds on 10.27.17 at 7:14 pm

Yikes

Winna Winna Chicken Dinna

Vancouver gets the recognition it richly deserves

https://wolfstreet.com/2017/10/26/the-most-unaffordable-housing-markets-in-north-america/

#22 Smoking Man on 10.27.17 at 7:15 pm

In fact, the only buyers who will not be affected by what’s coming are those sitting on a pile of cash who need not worry about qualifying for anything, and can swoop into a distressed marketplace. -Garth

It’s how it works, Sell High, Buy Low.

#23 Damifino on 10.27.17 at 7:22 pm

that people should get pre-qualified immediately so they can scoop up a house with a max mortgage in January – is insane. Unethical. Irresponsible. Unprincipled. Dangerous.
————————————–

Not to mention capricious, nefarious, corrupt, reckless, malicious, pernicious, ruinous, detrimental, sinister and malevolent.

#24 Protea on 10.27.17 at 7:25 pm

New Zealand bans foreign home buyers

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41745129

Home ownership in Canada should be restricted to Canadian residents and citizens. That will go a long way to resolving the housing shortage and calm prices – its a win win situation.
The real problem is unscrupulous Chinese investors being allowed to launder money all over the world. Every major city is suffering from the same problem. Governments continue to turn a blind eye until there is a political backlash, by which time it’s too late to do anything.

#25 n1tro on 10.27.17 at 7:37 pm

#14 Nonplused on 10.27.17 at 6:51 pm

Snapchat and porn. Not hard to understand. The ad revenue is not coming from companies posting ads. Its coming from the likes of Google, Facebook, Twitter, etc mining your behaviour when you are on their platforms and bundling and packaging what they know about you to advertisers. Whereas as space can be sold to one advertiser at a time, your behavioural data which you fully consent to is sold and resold over and over again.

As for internet porn, the revenue comes from people wanting high quality streams with full money shots.

#26 bigrider on 10.27.17 at 7:39 pm

Long time no post Garth. I have reserved rights on the “uppa Uppa UPPA” phrase. You must ask me to use it.lol

Listen everyone. I asked my nonno about OSFI rule changes coming, the cooling off in house prices and continually rising condo prices. His response :

” Listena to me again, I tella you once, I tella you twice ,I tella you a tena timesa a one hundred, da price a da housa shesa keepa go uppa Uppa UPPA. ” !

He continued :

” Da people ina Toronto dei lova da house more dan a der kids. Dei cut off der owna arms and legsa before dei giveuppa ona da house. If dei own dei pay whatever dei gotta pay. Ifa notta dei do whatever dei gotta do, sacrifice whatever dei gotta to buya da house. Only ting Garth hesa right abouta isa da obsession witta da real estata. Dis he hava right but he no understand how much dis maka da difference ”

One hard headed calabrese my nonno.

#27 SoggyShorts on 10.27.17 at 7:44 pm

#13 crossbordershopper on 10.27.17 at 6:49 pm
Sounds like you buddy is trying to support his wife and kid on $20/h(or they each make $10/h?) in one of the most expensive places in Canada. I’m not really surprised his wallet is empty at the end of the month.

#28 Guillaunme on 10.27.17 at 7:45 pm

Here in the wild west the blame game against “foreign investors” is reaching outrageous levels, even the government leaders are in this. That is very sad to see and hear such xenophobic statements everywhere…we are facing ugly moments here in the West, it would be probably a good time to wake up the BC conservatives, they could be a good alternative if they are able to provide more transparency and higher moral values than the previous BC Libs…

#29 Andrew Woburn on 10.27.17 at 7:49 pm

I can’t pretend I know what will happen to Vancouver Island real estate but here is what I see from my patch of Nanaimo. Prices are still tight on higher end SFH but days on market have slid up from 15 to more like 30.

If Ted is looking at more expensive homes, my guess is they will be price sticky for a while. When the sinking price penny drops for older Vancouverites, I think there will be a short rush to get VI properties while the price difference is still high. As there has been a lot of VI inventory turnover lately, the supply is probably going to remain tight especially if VI sellers can longer get the prices they have come to expect as “normal”.

For what it’s worth, there are definitely Chinese buyers here picking up waterfront. I count six on my short street and at least two are from Mainland China, not Richmond.

However it is unlikely that there will be many of them and they and wealthy retirees are not shopping for average houses which I assume will soon decline as mortgage rates bite.

My advice to Ted would be not to rush. We have had a massive price surge on the Island in the last two years and I don’t see it being really sustainable once the fires of speculative lust are quenched.

#30 akashic record on 10.27.17 at 7:52 pm

Has that issue of greaterfool.ca being banned been resolved?

Unresolved. — Garth

—–

Recommended literature: Franz Kafka The Trial. (1915)

“Someone must have been telling lies about Josef K., because he had done nothing wrong, but one day he was arrested.”

Max Brod, his friend, later curator of Kafka’s work described how the contemporary readers found the situation so absurd that they were laughing during public readings of the book.

Apparently, mankind has made enormous progress in the past hundred years.

#31 joblo on 10.27.17 at 7:52 pm

#14 Nonplused on 10.27.17 at 6:51 pm

Truth!

#32 Andrew Woburn on 10.27.17 at 7:55 pm

No wonder Elon Musk doesn’t trust AI.

From Morning Brew –

Quote of the Day

“You’ve been reading too much Elon Musk.”

Who said robots can’t imitate human attitudes? That snark came from Sophia, a humanoid developed by Hanson Robotics. She’s got more of a battery-half-full approach to AI than Elon.

#33 Chelsea on 10.27.17 at 7:56 pm

We have waited 3+years to buy a home .. 2nd time around …. talk about patience … we don’t need financing (the banks can take a walk) … just need some clarifying on lower home prices … don’t buy on Vancouver Island … prices are way too high still. I really don’t understand what generates such an upsurge of ridiculous prices … have you really seen what is out there, it is laughable and funny. They all must be smoking the same thing!

Oh well .. just have to wait until next year 2018 … hopefully that will be the year of reckoning!

#34 tkid on 10.27.17 at 7:58 pm

Ted, if you’re gonna buy before the Stress Test takes effect, make sure you do your own stress test. Only buy something you can afford at prime+2%. This should get you some breathing room if things go bad.

#35 Wet Toast on 10.27.17 at 8:10 pm

I am not sure about your 6 month timeline Garth, the way I understand the stress test rules is that if you sign your deal on January 1, 2018, the new qualification rate starts from that day forward. Sellers might be sticky on prices, but would they be willing to wait six months to get a lower price anyway? You can get a pre-approval until February, but the rule hits you on January 1 regardless.

The stress test comes at the moment you apply for a mortgage, not closing. The banks will have it in place within a few weeks, not Jan 1. — Garth

#36 Ben on 10.27.17 at 8:13 pm

Amazon just popped 13% today, my net worth is 2.7 million. In my mid 30s. 1.6 million in investable and liquid assets. My old FA (never really used him, just helped with my mortgage) who is now a mortgage broker now, sent me an email about the OSFI rules. Told me to go out and buy that SFH now. Lol.

#37 For those about to flop... on 10.27.17 at 8:20 pm

I, um…sometimes have a bad day at work but the street planners in Coquitlam seemed unable to put it behind them.

I guess the other person got revenge by labelling the next street over Lazy B…

M43BC

3070 Lazy A Street, Coquitlam
Oct 4:$3,388,000
Oct 26: $2,788,777
Change: – 599223.00 -18%

#38 Entrepreneur on 10.27.17 at 8:22 pm

TGF and enjoy what you have at the moment, right now.

I too agree we should have restrictions on foreign buyers like in New Zealand and it makes sense in that taxpayer dollars should stay within the borders.

When a nation has 40% divorce rate that means the great leaders are doing something wrong like not paying attention to the people within their borders like T2.

Speaking of T2, have to past this on which he won’t like too much, oh well. Trump’s parents were hard working parents and expected their children to follow their ways like how families live by now. But with T2 and BM it was their grandparents that walked the trough, not them so the skip a generation like the Trump.

TGF

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.27.17 at 8:23 pm

@#21 rainclouds
“Vancouver gets the recognition it richly deserves”

*******

And hopefully the housing meltdown it so “richly” deserves

#40 Mark on 10.27.17 at 8:32 pm

“The real problem is unscrupulous Chinese investors being allowed to launder money all over the world.”

The big problem is that there’s not one iota or shred of evidence of this actually happening. Especially not in Canada. We have plenty of evidence of a debt bubble though. Its rather disgusting that there are some elements of society who would pick a certain ethnic group, “Chinese”, onto which to ascribe attributes of speculation that are common amongst all races and religions worldwide.

“Foreign” participation in Canada’s RE marketplace is statistically negligible, and if Canada were to ban foreign ownership, such reciprocity would not be granted to Canadians. As a country that is in the fortunate position of being able to acquire overseas assets on the net over the years, the words “be careful for what you wish” come to mind.

#41 Long-Time Lurker on 10.27.17 at 8:33 pm

Reading up on the saga of Elon Musk (on Zero Hedge)…

He’s camped up on top of the roof of Tesla Motors because he doesn’t want to lose time driving to the plant from a hotel. The Shanghai deal is still in negotiations and he got a Taiwanese supplier to drop shipments. It might have been a 40% cut. The plant output estimation dropped from 5,000 to 3,000 a week. Drama.

Years ago I watched a documentary called, “Who Killed The Electric Car.” In it a really popular electric car called EV1 got axed by Ford, I think it was. Ford probably lost a goldmine. Musk was in it too with Tesla. Musk was literally a day away from losing everything (He only had Tesla back then after selling PayPal) and pulled through or at least the investors believed in him.

Musk has to pull a rabbit out of a hat but I actually believe he can do it. The guy has no quit in him.

#42 For those about to flop... on 10.27.17 at 8:40 pm

#153 Gravy Train on 10.27.17 at 5:10 pm
Reply to

#135 Ace Goodheart on 10.27.17 at 12:02 pm
For any and all readers seeking competent advice on bond funds, please disregard anything that the above poster writes.

Too churlish, Flopster? :)

////////////////////////

Hey Gravy,I could muff this up but I think if my memory serves me correctly Ace is one of the more balanced investors on here.

Has a paid for house and a rental property that is part of a triplex of something like that and has his money spread around the markets so I think he is doing better than most so what he stated probably made since to him.

I am a heavyweight on the scales and a lightweight when it come to investing compared to you guys so I try and stay out of that most of the time except a bit of virtual hand holding when someone gets nervous and looks like they are going to saw their leg off just because a butterfly landed on it.

It’s good that we can discuss different investment ideas with each other on here,if I tried to discuss some of the topics we talk about on here at work my co- workers would just fire up the loudest power tool within reach so they didn’t have to here it.

During my 25 plus years in construction in 5 different countries the talk on the job has always been about buying a house.It has some comfort to it ,some familiarity, as it is what we see and do all day.

Stock market bad.

Long live the house…

M43BC

#43 Tony on 10.27.17 at 8:42 pm

Re: #4 TraderX on 10.27.17 at 6:23 pm

Bad advice as the B20 OSFI rules will hit the Vancouver area the hardest of any city in Canada. Mathematically all you need to do is take the average house price and divide it by the average yearly income in every city in Canada. The higher the number the more the B20 OSFI rules will affect affordability. One thing for sure is the amount of housing stock available will plunge from now until around March 2018.

#44 Dolce Vita on 10.27.17 at 8:45 pm

It will be interesting to see what happens in late 2017, early 2018 with new mortgages. Canada 2016 new mortgage holders by type, by CMHC using Equifax data (1% rounding error on total):

-21% refinanced (fastest growing category in YVR, 416 & environs):
the total mortgage balance increased by more than 10%.

-16% renewed with a new lender:
the total mortgage balance is same, lower or increased by less than 10%.

-14% multiple mortgage holders:
total mortgage balance increased by more than 10%, and the number of mortgages increased.

-40% New Owners:
Did not have a mortgage last quarter but have a mortgage this quarter.

-10% Owner Movers:
had a mortgage in the previous quarter and the current quarter but, the address changed.

– – – – – – – – –

66% of the new mortgage market affected by B20 (New Owners/Owner Movers + renewed with a new lender).

21% refinanced (cashing in on their new found equity) – should be interesting to see what happens to this crowd if B20 really does lower home values.

14% multiple mortgage holders probably the most vulnerable of the group.

All in all, this B20 could really bring a lot of mortgage holders to their knees.

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/hoficlincl/observer/observer_171.cfm

#45 Paddler on 10.27.17 at 8:51 pm

#10   We sold our house in Vancouver 4 years ago and moved to the Island. No not Victoria  there are a lot of other beautiful places over here. No need to go to the Mainland either. No spending hours in rush hour traffic. We have everything over here. We may take one trip a year to visit friends.
We see more young families moving over here. One of the main reason they say is the quality of live and housing is still affordable. Many work from home and find ways to make a living. It boils down to individual choices on how you want to live your life.

No regrets. Life is good walking the beaches around us. Schhhh don’t tell anybody.

#46 Stone on 10.27.17 at 8:56 pm

#12 Jimmy on 10.27.17 at 6:47 pm
Ted, none of this matters.

She. Wants. A. House.

——

And then:

She’ll Want. A. Divorce.

Don’t bother buying the house. Didn’t a similar story come up a while back on this blog. Wife hounded husband to buy. Whine. Whine. Whine. Then they bought somewhere where the kids could go to University and live at home. Best piece was kids decided to move out and live on their own while going to university, far, far away. I wonder why. Shortly after, wife demanded divorce. In that story, nothing satisfied her. Anyone who makes demands like that won’t stop. It’s all about control and when that doesn’t make them happy, they’ll blame the spouse and demand divorce.

Aint love grand?

My recommendation.

Run! Now! Do. It. Quickly!

Ted. It really matters!

#47 Leo Trollstoy on 10.27.17 at 9:06 pm

Ever since I made the correct call on healthy inflation and range-bound CAD, I cant tell if I’m lucky or smart

Blog dogs benefit either way!

See tech boom in the stock market today?? Yeeeehaww!!

#48 jim on 10.27.17 at 9:12 pm

#14

‘Snapchat got a mention and I have to admit that I don’t understand the business model of perhaps all of the FANGS. Can these internet sites really live off advertising revenue? Like radio stations? Would anybody pay to be on Facebook or Snapchat?”

Snapchat is a weird one.

I actually talked to some of their senior managers this week, as they are trying to grab me for a job as a senior research engineer. Google, Facebook (etc) have revenue. Serious revenue, in fact, to the of billions.

The people at Snapchat kept talking about ‘moving to profitability’. As in, they aren’t profitable yet, and might not be in future. Despite that, they were offering higher pay than most of the other companies apart from Netflix.

I think they are a symbol of the diminishing investment bubble in tech… not profitable, no reason to expect future growth, but billions in market cap. Super nice people and they are hiring some really good employees from other Silicon Valley companies, but mysterious business model.

#49 Dolce Vita on 10.27.17 at 9:19 pm

#40 Mark

Stop virtue signaling to please Garth.

Try to keep up (foreign speculators, Cdn. tax avoidance with Assignments, e.g., Asia, Middle East):

http://business.financialpost.com/diane-francis/taxpayers-also-victims-of-hot-money-behind-canadas-condo-bubbles

Start reading from Realtors that have the courage to talk about what is really going on (not the only post he has made with Developers pre-selling in China BEFORE selling to Canadians):

https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/923598668967559169

or NEWS 1130 that caught a YVR developer doing the same:

http://www.news1130.com/2017/06/06/developer-intend-give-overseas-buyers-first-shot-vancouver-project/

Saretsky also caught an agent out of Hong Kong boasting Vancouver pre-sale condos for less than Canadians will pay for them.

All you have to do is seek information from honest people in the industry as to what is happening to YVR condo sales, and 416, as a result of foreign speculation, tax avoidance and pre-sales there BEFORE Canada.

#50 TurnerNation on 10.27.17 at 9:19 pm

Hay everybody come to Ontariowe. Just walk across border if you have to – unguarded with our expensive military.
You will win free post secondary education followed with a guaranteed minimum income.

If you’re stupid enough to actually work it’ll be $15/hr new min wage for standing around.
Why not work under the table for a bit less and cash.
Just stuff $500/mo into TFSA and retirement will be in the millions.
Bonus is new government weed shops set to blunt your feckless existence.

Don’t worry I’ll keep working to pay for all of this – to the bone, then grave.

In Soviet Kanada they pretend to pay us and we pretend to work.

#51 Long Branch Apprentice on 10.27.17 at 9:19 pm

I would love to see a map of Canadian IQ, broken down by geographical area.

We can’t all be above average.

#52 TurnerNation on 10.27.17 at 9:21 pm

Back to regular programming…for the Schlock Pickers and Yield Hounds I found a 9% REIT little gem PVT.UN. Unbalanced of course.

#53 TurnerNation on 10.27.17 at 9:23 pm

Not even close…PRV I mean. It’s Fryday.

#54 Smoking Man on 10.27.17 at 9:48 pm

Well this was weird. Out of blue the some random person head hunter reaches out on linked In. Got a gid for your skills at a fortune 500 company pay 150 per hour. Ok, I send out my Resume with a shit load of spelling errors that I’ve been to lazy to correct.

Get a call today. They are giving me a 3 month contract
WTF is all I’m thinking. Not even a phone interview.

Said I have an amazing reputation on bay street.

Got a feeling Gartho or some of my Deplorable secret brothers at the old tax farm got a bit worried about me.

I signed the SOW start Monday.

Only reason. Who hires some one with interview.

Who ever is the God Dog out there who did this. Thanks.

Rehab will need to wait till January.

Downtown blog dogs.. Duke on Thursday?

I’m back.

#55 Jon on 10.27.17 at 9:48 pm

Got this message from a realtor today and i responded back asking if he though it would put pressure on housing prices… Got no response. Here is the email.

“Good morning! I trust you are well.

I am not sure if you have heard about the new update from the Federal Government (Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institution) that was announced last week. As of January 1st 2018, all Conventional Mortgages (Down payment of 20% or more), will now go through a “Stress Test”.

Therefore, you might want to connect with your existing database (Clients) who are currently on the fence. We need to have an Approval in place by December 15, 2017 (2nd half of December would be very tight due to holidays season) in order to qualify using current lending parameters. With the new Lending parameters in the new year, Client’s Loan capacity will decrease by approx 20 -25%.

Example:

Ø If they currently qualify for a loan of $500,000; come January, with the “Stress Test”, that will be reduced to about $400,000 approx.

Ø If they currently qualify for a loan of $1,000,000; come January, with the “Stress Test”, that will be reduced to about $800,000 approx.

Attached below is the link to the Policy Update:

OSFI is setting a new minimum qualifying rate, or “stress test,” for uninsured mortgages.

Guideline B-20 now requires the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages to be the greater of the five-year benchmark rate published by the Bank of Canada or the contractual mortgage rate 2%.”

#56 Jon on 10.27.17 at 9:49 pm

His email title said Time to Buy!

#57 IHCTD9 on 10.27.17 at 9:52 pm

Ted, it’s time to move. Get that resume polished up and start making casts into some quiet pools outside the current. IMHO, you’ve got a long wait yet in any overpriced market before anything worth buying slides into the affordable zone.

You live where rotted shacks cost everything you’ve got, how long will it be till no one wants to buy these crap piles? That’s what it’s going to take, that’s normal. When no one is interested in buying these teardowns for 900K, that’s when you’ll see affordable prices on decent houses. Just ask yourself if you can see this happening sometime soon.

#58 acdel on 10.27.17 at 9:54 pm

I don’t get it; never have women’s rights, equality, been so powerful and yet the demand on men to make these stupid decisions is absolutely mind boggling; what about you write an article Garth on how they should step up to the plate and take responsibility; oh no, that would make us men instead of one like T2, sorry T2 if I hurt your feelings, someone out there will give you a hug. :)

The pendulum has swung so far that every man out there (unfortunately) should just live their own lives; no wonder in Japan these robotic (ha,ha) s*x dolls are the fastest sellers out of any other product in that industry. This world has gone mad!!!

#59 Lost...but not leased on 10.27.17 at 9:54 pm

Re-unions and reminiscing:

We met some high school friends for dinner recently..and chatted about our lives to date.

One couple had a child..approx. 30 years old, and were going to give them their inheritance “early” aka help them buy a condo.

Other couple….his widowed Dad married a rich lady….her widowed Dad got caught up in one of those on- line “hardship” scams and lost everything…so they have bailed him out.

One gal who remained single had actually bought a house back in the early 1980’s…probably paid maybe $100,000…worth approx $2 Million now.

As the world turns…

#60 nick on 10.27.17 at 9:55 pm

From a developer’s email this morning:

“Don’t wait. Buy now, before the new mortgage rules from the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) take effect on January 1, 2018. Come home to a beautiful community, with a variety of townhomes still available.”

#61 conan on 10.27.17 at 10:01 pm

Almost all of the Halloween costumes in this video are now taboo, or would set off the sprinkler system, or it’s impossible to hold your drink. The guy in the ram costume does not look happy. His agent must have lied to him.

Warning: Raquel Welsh content.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APVw8323XOk

#62 OttawaMike on 10.27.17 at 10:04 pm

Turnernation
PRV.UN

Don’t know. REITS seem unsustainable with the consolidation of retail. Especially guys yieldung almost 10%.
Sears is just the beginning of a trend.

#63 Smoking Man on 10.27.17 at 10:11 pm

#51 Long Branch Apprentice on 10.27.17 at 9:19 pm
I would love to see a map of Canadian IQ, broken down by geographical area.

We can’t all be above average.
……

What is crazy about that, I did one recently on a Facebook link. I sucked at the launage part of the test. Killed it at math and spacesul shit.

Yet even with my limited launage skills I’m saving a shit load of disgruntled millenials.

Go figure.

#64 akashic record on 10.27.17 at 10:11 pm

If Hillary won:

– The Kennedy documents would have been kept sealed, the latest pieces coming to light put a big hole already in the official story

– The fake Trump’s Russia collusion story would be running for years, Clinton / DNC collusion would be buried

– Weinstein’s fall would have been blocked and kept covered up

The “truman show” would be running on undisturbed…

We are at the point now where the deplorable Truman is sailing out of Seahaven, having conquered his fear of water.

The big question is whether “the director” sends a man-made lightning storm to try to capsize the boat before it punctures the wall of the dome.

#65 crdt on 10.27.17 at 10:17 pm

#11 tccontrarian on 10.27.17 at 6:41 pm

Maybe it is a Quiet Riot?

Quiet Riot – Cum On Feel The Noize – YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxgMGk9JPVA

#66 For those about to flop... on 10.27.17 at 10:18 pm

Possible Pinkie Price Check.

Well not much sales activity in my main Pink Snow Folder but just having a squizz at the Possible Pinkies Folder and this luxury condo came up as sold a month ago.

They whittled half a million off it over at least a couple of reductions that eventually did the trick now I just need a realtor on here to give me a treat and tell me the sold price.

I promise to be a good boy and not pee on any fire hydrants…

M43BC

3201 1331 Alberni Street, Vancouver paid 2.85 ass 1.89 asking 3.18

Aug 3:$3,688,000
Aug 23: $3,388,000
Change: – 300000.00 -8%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1331-alberni-street/3201

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwM1BSQw==

#67 Nothing Surprises on 10.27.17 at 10:25 pm

If you’ve been astute enough to cobble together a million or two – Garth
…………………………………………………………………………….

Any couple no matter what age able to accumulate two million should invest it and make 8-10%…..$160-$200,000 a year and retire to the East Coast, Central America etc. and travel.

Why would you want to stay in a GTA/YVR or what ever other rat race your in ????

#68 Lost...but not leased on 10.27.17 at 10:35 pm

A few weeks back we were in Victoria area visiting family.

One family was in the Mount Douglas/Gordon Head area, renting a SFH…which also had a suite rented to a single guy.

Quite intriguing driving down the streets…I commented that one could shoot a movie from 1950’s -1970’s era in the area…very few new homes..aka neighbourhoods are relatively stable.

I don’t know the degree of offshore ownership, but if new construction is an indication, it may be quite low.

Suites are apparently quite common in the SFH neighbourhoods, but I don’t know if they are legit or not.

My guess is that the” powers that be” are turning a blind eye and not rock the boat as the housing issue seems to be addressed more reasonably than @ssholes on the Mainland like the Poopils Republic of Surrey

#69 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.27.17 at 10:55 pm

Once all the smoke clears in Q2 2018 I think the new mortgage rules will make the low end of the market more expensive and the upper end of the market will not change much at all. If the going gets rough the new rules can be rescinded or some other scheme will allow buyers to buy. Nobody is going to willingly pop this bubble cuz the economy would collapse.

Of course not. Knocking the GTA and YVR markets over would not even dent national GDP. – Garth

#70 Dmitry on 10.27.17 at 10:57 pm

#14 Nonplused

I’m with you on all that.

Or maybe we’re too old now to understand and make sense of all this virtual crap?

I’m in IT myself and been all my life since 98, but do not get all these Facebooks, LinkedIns and other SnapChats. What a waste of time!

#71 Lost...but not leased on 10.27.17 at 10:58 pm

Re Elon Musk..

Yawwnnn

Seems like clockwork that every so often some new “Wunderkinder’ is shoved in out faces, the genuflection starts and we have the latest in a long line of hyped mankind salvation agents.

Do people seriously think Bill Gates and his clique of nerds developed what they claim?

Mark Zuckerberg developed FaceBook ?

GOOGLE founders were 20 somethings ?

They actually landed men on the Moon ?

Elon Musk and electric cars?
……NOTE: some of THE first cars were electric over 100 years ago..till Rockefeller and cronies spread the false gospel of Peak Oil

No wonder this planet is going %$#@.

#72 For those about to flop... on 10.27.17 at 10:58 pm

Possible Pinkies Price Check Part II

This one came up as sold in late September and so I will put it up and see if a realtor on here wants to show a win.

Should be easy pickings,right?

Go on, I’ll let you embarrass me for a good cause…

M43BC

630 E CARISBROOKE RD NORTH VANCOUVER paid 2.69 ass 2.72 asking 2.98

https://www.zolo.ca/north-vancouver-real-estate/630-e-carisbrooke-road

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyOEE0WA==

#73 45north on 10.27.17 at 11:19 pm

She doesn’t want to rent anymore and she doesn’t want to get priced out again on Vancouver “Island (our new home) like we did in Vancouver,” he says. “Further complicating things, my dad passed away and my Mum needs to move in with us asap for family support and we all want something stable.

“we all want something stable” – which means:

we all want a house that goes up in value like houses used to do
we all want a house that you pay off in 20 years like people used to do
we all want an income that will allow you to pay the mortgage, feed the kids, buy them everything and maintain two cars like maybe somebody used to do

nice to see shared values

#74 DON on 10.27.17 at 11:31 pm

Not to be morbid on the eve of Halloween but…

Ted…one of the main industries on this island is retirement. New listings come on the market weekly due to estate sales. In Parksville the local funeral parlor is busy and expanding.

Besides, always a vood idea to rent at first until you discover an area that will appeal in the long term. Spend the winter driving your wife around. Delay delay delay. The movie is about to begin – make a big pot of popcorn and sit back and relax.

They said prices would always go up…and they have not.
They said interests rates would never go up…and they have.
They say the housing bubble will never pop…nope it is slowing deflating and a number of variables can pile on and increase the downward momentum. If you buy the bottom of the market make sure you have money to fix – low end here aren’t like Vancouver low end.
Good luck – conveniently leave Garths website on the computer screen. Use his picture as wallpaper.

My wife reads this blog. I have put her to work deciphering Garth’s financial advice. Didn’t think she posted until I can across two comments that hit home.

#75 Long-Time Lurker on 10.27.17 at 11:53 pm

#71 Lost…but not leased on 10.27.17 at 10:58 pm
Re Elon Musk..

Yawwnnn

Got the balls to be big league?

#76 Balmuto on 10.28.17 at 12:33 am

Re: Hong Kong impact on Canadian real estate…

I was in Hong Kong recently on a work assignment. One of my co-workers there told me he gets at least one flyer a week in his mail advertising pre-sale Toronto condos. At least one. The other big three heavily advertised markets are Vancouver, London (UK) and Sydney, Australia.

Maybe that doesn’t amount to much but, when was the last time you got a flyer in your mail advertising Hong Kong condos for sale?

By the way, try to tell a Hong Konger that hot Mainland Chinese money isn’t a big factor in prime global real estate markets. Good luck with that argument.

#77 Capt. Obvious on 10.28.17 at 12:59 am

Despite being whacked with hurricanes, the USA’s GPD grew at a 3% annualized rate in the 3rd quarter. All but assured we’ll see another interest rate increase at the next Fed meeting.

#78 BS on 10.28.17 at 1:45 am

Trying to time the real estate market is as hard as figuring out when to buy SnapChat stock (never).

At least Snap has some chance of an upside. Real estate not so much.

#79 Nonplused on 10.28.17 at 1:49 am

#25 n1tro

I don’t want to be argumentative, what you say is probably true, but I can’t imagine why anyone would pay for high def “money shots” or info on my surfing habits.

#48 jim

I’ve worked for companies on the way down before. It can work out well for a short time. After all somebody has to sweep the floors until they turn out the lights for the last time and companies generally don’t last that long so most of us are working for a company that will be broke in 10 years. Fine if you only have a 5 year horizon.

But what I am getting at is why people “invest”, if that is the right word, in such companies. Snapchat, Tesla, Netflix, etc., they don’t have a road to profitability. Even Amazon looks sketchy.

I mean let’s even look at Netflix. Great idea sort of until they need to collect $10 a month for a subscription. That would be incredible if that’s all you needed, way cheaper than cable, but chances are your internet is provided by the cable company or the phone company or maybe you have a really good data plan on your phone. So you still have to pay the cable company, and much more. Sure, you can “cut the cord” and go with only internet, but wouldn’t you know that is almost as much as the bundled service that will run your PVR’s and make Netflix unnecessary.

(Ya, I’m one of those fools who bought the “whole house” PVR just before my kid’s wii and Netflicks made it redundant. But it still works if you bother to program it.)

#70 Dmitry

I’m not sure it is we who have the problem because we are old. I don’t do Facebook because I actually talk to my real friends face to face from time to time, or at least send them an email. I don’t post random pics of my truck or dog and expect people I haven’t seen since high school to respond.

#80 Nonplused on 10.28.17 at 2:04 am

So here is another thought I came across today, seemed like the usual annual call from the auto dealer wondering if I wanted to trade my truck in for a new one because they have great deals and my truck is in demand.

Only his story was a little different this time. Apparently, Americans are running rampage on the Canadian used car market because of all the cars that got flooded in the hurricanes. At first this didn’t make any sense because how many investment reports have we read saying to buy up GM and Ford because all those cars have to be replaced and damn this is going to fix the factory backlog right quick.

But then I got to thinking. If your 5 year old car gets destroyed, the insurance company doesn’t give you enough money to buy a brand new car, they give you enough to buy another 5 year old car. And there in lies the crutch. Sure, they banter about a number that maybe 1,000,000 cars got ruined. But those weren’t 1,000,000 new cars, they were by and large 1,000,000 used cars (some new cars of course but not more than 10% of the total).

So the insurance companies are not going to pony up for 1,000,000 new cars. No way. They are going to pay on average less than half that amount. So do all 1,000,000 of these used car owners have the wherewithal to take the $6,000 or whatever they get for their drowned 2006 Explorer and go out and buy a brand new one for $60,000? Probably not. They are trying to find another used one for $6,000.

This is where the economystics get everything so wrong. They think demand is infinite, which I suppose it is. Heck I’d have a jet plane with a hot tub in it too if I could afford one. But infinite demand assumes infinite financing, which does not exist. They also screw up the supply side and assume a jet with a hot tub can be manufactured for every person along with a pension plan. But in the real world the facts are if your used car gets wrecked, it does not necessarily follow that you are now in the market for a new car.

#81 aa3 on 10.28.17 at 2:18 am

A way I look at it is which would you rather have.. $700,000 in cash in your bank account, or a median house.

I couldn’t care less about the house, relative to the financial security the $700k in cash would provide.

What happens when you are threatened with job loss at work, or if one in the relationship gets an illness.. or one needs retraining.

#82 Nonplused on 10.28.17 at 2:34 am

Oh ya and then somebody is going to say “Nonplused, new cars are better than old cars!” Actually I don’t thingk that’s been true since 1967 or 1968. A 1968 Mustang convertible was as cool as a car has ever been, got good mileage, and you could fix it yourself or at least have it repaired cheaply. Then they blew the motors up to try and deal with emissions regulations and made the cars much larger, and then eventually saddled us with so much crap that you need to have a computer reader to find out if your new Mustang has a tire with low air-pressure. It’s supposed to be for safety but more people die from prescription drug overdoses. And if they weren’t overdosing on drugs, they might not crash as often.

People get all weirded out about how dangerous motorcycles are, but you are far more likely to die from prescription drugs. Ride on!

#83 Leichendiener on 10.28.17 at 7:20 am

Trade Bambi napping at NAFTA negotiations! Just too busy signally virtue. We really take the auto sector for granted and kick it for being a carbon intensive industry. Debt servicing will be problematic if the tent is pulled down on this circus. Figure employment level into your cost of housing.

#84 Dan.t on 10.28.17 at 8:38 am

#69 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.27.17 at 10:55 pm
Once all the smoke clears in Q2 2018 I think the new mortgage rules will make the low end of the market more expensive and the upper end of the market will not change much at all. If the going gets rough the new rules can be rescinded or some other scheme will allow buyers to buy. Nobody is going to willingly pop this bubble cuz the economy would collapse.

Of course not. Knocking the GTA and YVR markets over would not even dent national GDP. – Garth

———————-

I don’t know, why then have they been so eager to keep the party going.

Look at NDP back peddling about affordable housing after winning based solely on that promise…politics as usual I guess.

Liberals were even nice enough to give new buyers 37k free downpayment so lucky young ones could start a life with 2 mortgages.

Do you think those in power had no idea the amount of illegal and foreign money pumping and sloshing around YVR and hot spots in BC? Now the Casino scandal. Where does all the money go? And the non-stop stories about developers selling out overseas and on and on….just keep the party going.

Are the locals delusional and do they play a huge part, of course since many (not sure how many but significant amount I bet) own primary residence and 2-3 “investment” properties all on dirt cheap credit. Seems the only economy is locals selling over priced real estate to each other and then talking real estate in there spare time or with others, because it is all that matters.

If it is not foreign ownership, they could introduce serious restriction and it shouldn’t be a big issue. There are numerous measures that could be implemented but no political party wants to touch it.

16 years NDP watched in BC and now they are in power, think they want to mess with “peoples hard earned equity” when ownership rates are 70% and they are the voters (probably ownership rates are 180% if you take in to account all those with “investment” properties). Ok, that didn’t make much sense, but

the political goal is window dressing and to make sure nothing drastic happens on my watch.

Or is the service industry bringing in all the money in tax revenue…real estate is the only game in town. Or maybe you can name a few other industries in BC.

Real estate = construction jobs, mortgage brokers, realtors, audi dealership leases, banks making billions, locals up to eyeballs in debt but taking out HELOC and living good life on borrowed money and fictional equity and so on…it’s an unreal party.

#85 X on 10.28.17 at 9:00 am

Curious to see how the realtors spin April 2018 sales numbers……

#86 Penny Henny on 10.28.17 at 9:19 am

#26 bigrider on 10.27.17 at 7:39 pm
Long time no post Garth. I have reserved rights on the “uppa Uppa UPPA” phrase. You must ask me to use it.lol

Listen everyone. I asked my nonno about OSFI rule changes coming, the cooling off in house prices and continually rising condo prices. His response :

” Listena to me again, I tella you once, I tella you twice ,I tella you a tena timesa a one hundred, da price a da housa shesa keepa go uppa Uppa UPPA. ” !
////////

Heya Big Rider.
Maybeya thisa time your Nonno he no know?

#87 Dharma Bum on 10.28.17 at 9:22 am

#67 Nothing Surprises

“Any couple no matter what age able to accumulate two million should invest it……and retire…..and travel.”

“Why would you want to stay in a GTA/YVR or what ever other rat race your in ????”
——————————————————————-

Now THAT’S what I’m TALKIN’ about!!!

Amen, brother.

——————————————————————–

#88 Gravy Train on 10.28.17 at 9:44 am

#42 For those about to flop… on 10.27.17 at 8:40 pm

Ace wrote earlier this year that bond funds are a bargain, and that we’re at the bottom of the market. I believe that we’re at the top of the bond market, for the simple reason that coupon rates are at record lows.

Here’s evidence from Vanguard’s financials:
https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/advisors/mvc/loadImage?country=CAN&docId=5727

Since Ace and I are taking extreme opposite positions, Floppy, only one of us can be right. You have to ask yourself this question: Whose advice should I take?

If you’re still in doubt, simply follow Garth’s advice! :)

#89 FLHTK on 10.28.17 at 10:00 am

I think a lot of sellers are dreaming on their prices still! My realestate agent friend told me the other day a couple in the B.Dot( north of Toronto Bradford) bought a house 6 months ago for 1.1 mill, now trying to sell 6 months later for 850k because they don’t like bradford. House has been on the market for 3 weeks now.
and i’m guessing that 850k will shrink bit more before it moves

#90 Timberr on 10.28.17 at 10:06 am

“First-time GTA home buyers take to the skies in condos”

https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2017/10/26/first-time-gta-home-buyers-take-to-the-skies-in-condos.html

“For Pickles, who is living with her parents until her unit is ready, the move means home ownership near enhanced transit service on GO’s busy Lake Shore West line.

She put down 30 per cent on the $307,000 apartment, and figures her payments, including condo fees, will still be less than rent downtown.

“Rent is insane,” she said, citing friends whose leasing costs are so prohibitive they struggle to afford the city amenities for which they’re paying a premium to be close to.”

So this 22 yr old drops a $92,000 down payment….hmm I wonder where that came from?

Rents are “insane” but almost $100k down on 600 sq ft box is not? Unbelievable.

#91 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.28.17 at 10:41 am

First we have Chinese “whales” flying into Vancouver from the Mainland . Receiving suitcases with millions of dollars in shrinkwrapped bills to “wash” via casinos which they then invest in Real Estate……..
…..and now the door opens a little wider on the former BC Liberal Govts fiscal “integrity”…

$100 Million dollars a year loaned to unidentified foreign investors in BC.
These same investors could apply for up to a 100% tax refund on any profits their company made.

I cant make this stuff up.

Todays New York Times….

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/27/world/americas/british-columbia-tax-breaks.html?ref=todayspaper

The rot in the BC Liberal party reign of error DEMANDS a Commission of inquiry with the ability to subpoena testimony from uncooperative witnesses.

I wont hold my breath even though the political stench is overwhealming.

#92 Ace Goodheart on 10.28.17 at 10:58 am

RE: #150 Ian on 10.27.17 at 3:19 pm
In Elliot Lake for the weekend, and eating lunch I noticed an ad for this local brokerage:

http://oakrealty.ca/

Looking through the listings, all this stuff in the GTA would be 10-15x more. Absolutely amazing.

This is a cool town by the way. Going to uranium history museum tomorrow!

Step one: sell your $1.8 million dollar Toronto roach infested, crumbling foundation semi.

Step two: Purchase a house in Elliott Lake. $75,000 should do it.

Step three: Invest about a mil. Maybe a mil two hundred? Live off the dividends and capital gains (your income tax will be a lot less).

Step four: his and hers Teslas. You can afford the top model S. Get two really nice ones.

Step five: Travel the world for two years. Yes, you still have enough left to spend 100K or more per year, for two years of travelling.

Step six: return home to Elliott lake. Never work again. Never commute again. No deadlines, no drama.

What are you waiting for?

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.28.17 at 11:04 am

@#91 Ace
“What are you waiting for?”
++++++

Glow in the dark water from the kitchen tap?

#94 maxx on 10.28.17 at 11:12 am

#13 crossbordershopper on 10.27.17 at 6:49 pm

“Canada is a hard place to make a buck and to live well. My week living in Milton Ontario with an old friend at his townhouse outlined how slavery in the 21st centry looks like.
He pays $1900 month rent plus utilities, after car payment, insurance, bla bla bla he ends up with about 100 month he saids, he actually lives off the government child tax benefit he saids, he saids on the 20th, is when he actually has a few hundred bucks in his pocket otherwise, he works on zero working capital, as quickly as its deposited for him and his wife all the thieves are lined up.”

Wait ’till automation kicks in. Plans are now in process to begin printing building foundations with concrete. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0FNKGTNIhE

So, fewer jobs, savings plunging even more, debt skyrocketing, social instability on the rise….and the fuel to the fire is workers’ company pensions becoming completely extinct. What’s left of them.

For most of society, money has become a rare commodity – despite economy-decimating low rates.

#95 MF on 10.28.17 at 11:20 am

#90 Timberr

Sorry but she is being wise IMO.

But Let me explain:

Paying a high rent gets you zero. Your savings are too low to invest and you are not paying off any asset either. You are left with nothing in the end (and this is ignoring how her monthlies are lower).

At least this way she will have an asset at the end.

By the way, the market will continue to go up and rates are going nowhere.

MF

#96 Stone on 10.28.17 at 11:21 am

#90 Timberr on 10.28.17 at 10:06 am
“First-time GTA home buyers take to the skies in condos”

https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2017/10/26/first-time-gta-home-buyers-take-to-the-skies-in-condos.html

“For Pickles, who is living with her parents until her unit is ready, the move means home ownership near enhanced transit service on GO’s busy Lake Shore West line.

She put down 30 per cent on the $307,000 apartment, and figures her payments, including condo fees, will still be less than rent downtown.

“Rent is insane,” she said, citing friends whose leasing costs are so prohibitive they struggle to afford the city amenities for which they’re paying a premium to be close to.”

So this 22 yr old drops a $92,000 down payment….hmm I wonder where that came from?

Rents are “insane” but almost $100k down on 600 sq ft box is not? Unbelievable.

——

Oh, I believe it if money came from Mommy and Daddy and she didn’t earn it herself. She has no concept of it whatsoever. All she cares about is about how the payments reduce her disposable income or that of her friends renting. Fool she is. She should instead be figuring how many hours she would need to work to actually save $92,000. She should be sitting when she does the math as she will discover it will represent many, many years of her life. I laugh at irony. Well, that’s ok. I need these sheeple to continue to consume so that my dividends keep coming in. Oh sheeple. What would I do without you.

#97 For those about to flop... on 10.28.17 at 11:23 am

at 9:44 am
#42 For those about to flop… on 10.27.17 at 8:40 pm

Ace wrote earlier this year that bond funds are a bargain, and that we’re at the bottom of the market. I believe that we’re at the top of the bond market, for the simple reason that coupon rates are at record lows.

Here’s evidence from Vanguard’s financials:
https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/advisors/mvc/loadImage?country=CAN&docId=5727

Since Ace and I are taking extreme opposite positions, Floppy, only one of us can be right. You have to ask yourself this question: Whose advice should I take?

If you’re still in doubt, simply follow Garth’s advice! :)

/////////////////////

That’s fair enough Gravy.

I didn’t really address the bond issue in my post, I happen to think just about everything is at the top,but my main point about Ace was that he at least invests in the stuff he talks about and goes with his instincts.

I know what you mean about people making misleading comments but if the guy honestly believes what he writes and then backs it up with his money then you can only wish him well.

Someone like Mark( Chris Pitz) is far more dangerous to any newbie in my opinion.

As for Garth, he’s alright.

I still believe he saves his best work of the week for when he is sweeping out the front of the store.

Still not sure about his advice about putting cowboy boots on your hands so you don’t get blisters…

M43BC

#98 jess on 10.28.17 at 11:30 am

MADRID/HONG KONG (Reuters) – Spain has launched an investigation into the European management of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) (601398.SS) in Luxembourg as part of a widening probe into the alleged laundering of hundreds of millions of euros through the Chinese banking giant’s Madrid branch.

https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/6973-spain-probes-chinese-bank-icbc-s-european-unit-on-money-laundering-allegations

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/3.0.15/news/on-euro-weekly-news/spain-news-in-english/146196-spanish-police-arrest-55-in-huge-chinese-money-laundering-operation

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.28.17 at 11:37 am

I had to check this article twice to ensure former BC Liberal “leader” Christy Clark wasnt on this boat….

She’s been missing for almost the same amount of time since losing the election.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/27/us/navy-rescue-women.html?ref=todayspaper

#100 TnT on 10.28.17 at 11:39 am

#92 Ace Goodheart on 10.28.17 at 10:58 am

Elliot Lake

Literally being put out to pasture…

#101 n1tro on 10.28.17 at 11:50 am

#79 Nonplused on 10.28.17 at 1:49 am
#25 n1tro

I don’t want to be argumentative, what you say is probably true, but I can’t imagine why anyone would pay for high def “money shots” or info on my surfing habits.
+++++++++++++++++++++

You may be right about the high res money shot counter argument. I really dont know as I dont pay for porn. However, for the behavioural data and the business of reselling it, that one is real. To me, it is a big scam with resellers using buzzwords such as “big data” or “impressions” when talking about analytics around data gathered. You have to remember that most marketing people are idiots like the general public so when shown volumes of data, colorful charts, buzz words, they will glady spend their budgets on the analytics provided by the likes of google, facebook, etc so they can go to their management meetings and say product X got 8484383 impressions on social media in 1 day so that must be why sales are up. Please give the marketing dept more budget to continue the success!

The big flaw that the other executives in the room fail to ask is what the ROI is on an “impression” while taking out the premise that the marketing data accounted for all of the sales.

Snapchat isnt making money right now because there are few buyers of behavioural data for teens (which dont have much cash) sending naked videos of their junk to each other. But if Snapchat can keep its users loyal for another 10 yrs when they are in the workforce making money, marketers will be paying for that “big data”.

#102 NoName on 10.28.17 at 11:58 am

#24 Protea on 10.27.17 at 7:25 pm

#38 Entrepreneur on 10.27.17 at 8:22 pm

New Zeleand ONLY banned sale of EXISTING houses to forigners.


‘We have agreed on banning the purchase of existing homes by foreign buyers,” said Ms Ardern, according to AFP.

New and shiny thing for rich forigners, old and rotten stuff for everone else… the way i see it, but this statment is where funy is hiding.

“There is going to be a change and a clear signal sent internationally that New Zealand is no longer for sale in the way it has been. We’re happy with that,”

Ms Ardern – Jacinda Ardern becomes the youngest female Prime Minister of New Zealand

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/new-zealand-foreigners-buy-property-ban-coalition-talks-prime-minister-jacinda-arden-a8017261.html

#103 akashic record on 10.28.17 at 12:11 pm

#91 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.28.17 at 10:41 am

First we have Chinese “whales” flying into Vancouver from the Mainland . Receiving suitcases with millions of dollars in shrinkwrapped bills to “wash” via casinos which they then invest in Real Estate……..
…..and now the door opens a little wider on the former BC Liberal Govts fiscal “integrity”…

$100 Million dollars a year loaned to unidentified foreign investors in BC.
These same investors could apply for up to a 100% tax refund on any profits their company made.

I cant make this stuff up.

Todays New York Times….

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/27/world/americas/british-columbia-tax-breaks.html?ref=todayspaper

The rot in the BC Liberal party reign of error DEMANDS a Commission of inquiry with the ability to subpoena testimony from uncooperative witnesses.

I wont hold my breath even though the political stench is overwhealming.

===

The opaque (no publicly disclosed information that which company got how much in return of what) “tax break meant to create jobs”.

Tax payer money does not “create” jobs.

These programs gift tax payers money to business owners to buy labor effectively at lower cost than the market rate.

It is inefficient taxpayers paid, government administered market manipulation, naturally vulnerable for corruption.

If governments want to stimulate demand for more labor they should collect less tax, letting consumers buy more products and services.

#104 MF on 10.28.17 at 12:25 pm

#96 stone

Yes the money came from mom and dad but so what?

All my friends who took down payments from their parents have benefitted immensely when compared to those of us who tried to be noble and did not.

My parents received a windfall in 2012 and were after me to buy in 2012. I wish I just took it.

MF

#105 Gravy Train on 10.28.17 at 12:34 pm

#95 MF on 10.28.17 at 11:20 am

“By the way, the market will continue to go up and rates are going nowhere.”

Well, MF, have you bought your detached teardown yet? We’re all waiting with bated breath. :)

Have you thought about moving to a city like Halifax or Edmonton? You can keep in touch with family, friends and relatives by Skype! :)

Just trying to be helpful—rather than pedantic! :)

#106 NoName on 10.28.17 at 12:35 pm

Sensorship at its finest, so light and gentle, thank to right to be forgotten.

Google said that it’ll now deliver search results relevant to your current location no matter which domain you visit. So if you’re in New York and visit google.ru, you’ll still get results relevant to New York City.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/27/16561848/google-search-always-local-results-ignores-domain

—-

And while I am this topic twitter changed user agreement and encouraged users to delete their stuff when they realize Ed that fake news are spreading their twitter fast during election.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/27/twitter-russia-election-data-244226?lo=ap_d1

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TECHNOLOGY
Twitter urged firms to delete data during 2016 campaign
Company directives reinforced privacy policies that were already being criticized for helping Russia meddle in elections.
By JOSH MEYER 10/27/2017 05:07 AM EDT
Twitter’s office is pictured. | Getty Images
Twitter’s deletion policy is meriting further scrutiny by congressional committees investigating Russian meddling in the U.S. election. | Jonathan Alcorn/AFP/Getty Images
Facebook Twitter Google + Email Comment Print
Twitter quietly ramped up a campaign last year to permanently delete some user data from its social media platform and the files of commercial firms using it, raising concerns that the policy would help Russian cyberspies suspected of meddling in the 2016 election cover their tracks.

In June and September of 2016, the company posted updates to its privacy policy and user agreements that reminded firms that when anyone deleted or revised tweets — or closed accounts — that all others with access to them would have to destroy any trace of them as well. If they failed to comply, the company warned, they risked being cut off from the Twitter database.

Story Continued Below

The second of the directives came amid intensifying questions about who was behind efforts to hijack Twitter to sway voters, and after cyber-researchers had expressed concerns that the deletion policy was undermining their efforts to link that campaign to Moscow.

In some cases, private-sector researchers say they complained about the directives to Twitter officials, while others issued warnings on the platform itself and other online platforms.

Samuel Woolley, an information warfare expert who was director of Oxford University’s Computational Propaganda Research Team, questioned the timing of the directives, saying they came after he and associates had repeatedly warned Twitter officials that the existing deletion policy already was undermining their efforts — and those of many other researchers — to determine the extent of Russia’s attempts to manipulate the social media platform.

#107 LivinLarge on 10.28.17 at 12:53 pm

“Don’t know. REITS seem unsustainable with the consolidation of retail.” so just stay away from retail REITS. I have a medium sized position in an industrial REIT paying a nice 8% annual distribution monthly. A nice dependable income that chuggs along every month.

Someone is going to go all wobbly on me telling me I’m deluded and it can’t last but nothing is guaranteed to last so I sell at some point and move on. I just sit on the $50K position adding $5K each year and collect $4K in tax free coin. Not bad mad money.

#108 Ian on 10.28.17 at 12:58 pm

#92 Ace

Haha I love it! Couldn’t agree more.

I had a condo at Bathurst and King, sold well before the top so I missed out on the frenzy. Been renting since. I forgot to think about Yellen keeping rates low to help Uranium One Hillary, so clearly I should have held through 2016. Gah!

Anyway, I have been thinking of leaving Toronto for some time now. I think I will eventually. Windsor is on the list. Warmer weather, super cheap real estate and Tigers games woohoo!

The problem is my clients are downtown so I’ll be here for a bit. Luckily Smoking Man is back so apparently it’s Duke of Richmond on Thursday lol.

#109 Ace Goodheart on 10.28.17 at 1:12 pm

RE: #153 Gravy Train on 10.27.17 at 5:10 pm
Reply to

“#135 Ace Goodheart on 10.27.17 at 12:02 pm
For any and all readers seeking competent advice on bond funds, please disregard anything that the above poster writes.”

Thanks I would expect certain types of investors to disregard my way of investing. That is really the point.

When I bought my rental for $289,000.00 in what was then one of the worst neighbourhoods in Toronto, everyone I knew disagreed with me. I was the butt of family jokes. What in the world is he doing? That neighbourhood sucks. That building is a dump. Why would he spend money on that? His poor wife!

That was 2012. The building across the street sold for 1.35 million. They are building a massive transit hub across from it. At the time I bought, our illustrious and now late mayor had promised to kill that transit project. Everyone thought he would do that, the neighbourhood would remain untouchable and I would be left with a piece of real estate that was worthless and a financial drain.

Bonds: what always happens when there is a bull market in stocks?

Bonds go down in value.

Why? Because bull markets in stocks usually occur when the economy is growing, governments are raising interest rates to cool an over heated economy, and bonds look like crap investments. Everyone sells them and rushes into stocks.

In a situation like that, I purchase bonds. Why? Because they are cheap, no one wants them, and I have made my money being a contrarian.

Am I right? Who knows? I might lose everything I put into bonds. It would only be about 20% of my investment total anyway, and likely I wouldn’t lose the entire 20%.

Should I stuff all my cash into an overheated stock market instead?

Or purchase massively overpriced real estate in bubble markets?

Or perhaps buy GICs with interest rates less than the rate of inflation, and distributions fully taxable at my marginal rate?

Please, sell your bond funds. Disagree with me. I will gladly buy them from you.

That is how I make my money. I buy distressed asset classes that people are fleeing from.

#110 Ace Goodheart on 10.28.17 at 1:30 pm

RE: Bonds: and the comments on here about them.

We are looking at two historical and current timelines, that are not going to happen at the same rate.

For bonds and their funds to continue on a never ending downward trend, we would need a never ending upward trend in interest rates, continuing forever. No bumps, no hiccups, no market corrections. Straight up, forever (like Toronto house prices?)

Economies don’t work like that. They are massive behemoths and they move slowly and in fits and starts. There are constant corrections, trends change, markets go from bull to bear territory, all on a micro scale, individually and constantly.

A constant upward rise in interest rates, with no corrections, has never happened. Look at the charts.

A constant upward trend in any asset class, has never happened. There are always corrections.

Anyone who says bonds are finished, is expecting a constant, never ending, upward trend in both interest rates and stock market valuations, forever.

That is the same silly sentiment that led to the current massive over valuation in housing prices in Canada, where everyone rushes into a single asset class, because it will go up forever and ever and you have to get a piece before the party is over and you are priced out for good.

Economies simply do not work like that.

Investment generally functions on the “bigger idiot” theory, for those who are following trends. You simply buy an investment that is rising in value for reasons you do not fully understand, hold it for a bit, and then sell it to someone who is dumber than you. Eventually, you get to the head idiot, and the market crashes.

If you don’t want to be part of this stupid game, then what you do is look for distressed asset classes and you investigate them carefully to find the good ones. You then purchase them at a massive discount, and wait.

Sooner or later, the trends will turn, markets will crash, bulls will become bears, and the economy will have one of its fits and starts, everything will change, and your distressed asset class will become more valuable, provided you did your due diligence and research and chose the right assets out of the class.

That is called being a contrarian. You will find, if you look, that contrarian investors are by far the most successful investors. Why? Because they are not trying to find a bigger idiot than themselves. They are not being idiots at all. They are saying “this is not true” and going off after asset classes that no one wants.

#111 Smartalox on 10.28.17 at 1:41 pm

Nonplused #82:

Re: 66 and 68 Mustangs

There’s been such a demand for vintage Mustang body panels that Ford recommissioned the stamps for them. Now you can buy a reproduction of a 66 or 68 Mustang complete with a modern 400HP ‘Coyote’ engine, and six-piston Wilwood brakes.

Check out: http://www.revology.com

Familiar in form, improved in function, but perhaps not the same level of soul?

#112 Ace Goodheart on 10.28.17 at 1:44 pm

As long as 90% of the investing public remains “bigger idiot” investors, I will always be able to beat the rest of you, on the long term, in percentage returns.

You all make it incredibly easy for me.

Bigger idiot investors have very predictable behaviour. You can actually plot it on a chart.

What I do is the opposite of what most investors do, and it looks pretty weird when I actually say it.

I am actively selling any investment that goes up in value, to purchase investments that are going down in value, on a principled basis with proper due diligence and investigation into everything I am buying.

So when my stocks go up in value, I sell some of the most successful ones, and purchase more bonds (that have gone down in value, because stock and bond prices always move in opposite directions).

That is nuts, right? Why would anyone sell an asset class that is appreciating, to purchase an asset class that is going down in value?

That person must be crazy.

#113 Tamsen on 10.28.17 at 2:55 pm

http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2017/10/26/abandoned-shaughnessy-how-empty-mansions-are-changing-vancouver-s-toniest-neighbourhood.html

#114 DON on 10.28.17 at 3:58 pm

Dolce…thank you for responding to Mark’s thoughts.

@ Mark – Google Sam Cooper Vancouver Sun (yah I know Postmedia) but he is blowing the top off money laundering in affiliated Casinos, definitely the one in Richmond and the Liberal gov at the time turned a blind eye to it.

Expand your google search.

#115 Evangeline on 10.28.17 at 4:16 pm

One of Trump’s favorite lines about the state of the U.S. economy is, “We’ve stopped making things; we have to start making things again.”

During his campaign he called attention to many shuttered and derelict factories. He talked about how when he was buying huge numbers of televisions for his hotels, he wanted to buy American, but couldn’t find any televisions that were made in America.

We are all in awe of how much cash China has to spend all over the world, but if Canada started making things again, instead of offshoring most of its manufacturing, maybe Canada would have more cash in its pocket.

A long time ago there used to be a thriving cotton textile industry in the Province of New Brunswick. Now, even if a person is fortunate enough to find a garment “made in Canada” the cloth itself is made in China.

How and why did Canada lose its manufacturing enterprises? If China is any indication, there’s a lot of money to be made manufacturing things.

#116 DON on 10.28.17 at 4:21 pm

#68 Lost…but not leased on 10.27.17 at 10:35 pm

A few weeks back we were in Victoria area visiting family.

One family was in the Mount Douglas/Gordon Head area, renting a SFH…which also had a suite rented to a single guy.

Quite intriguing driving down the streets…I commented that one could shoot a movie from 1950’s -1970’s era in the area…very few new homes..aka neighbourhoods are relatively stable.

I don’t know the degree of offshore ownership, but if new construction is an indication, it may be quite low.

Suites are apparently quite common in the SFH neighbourhoods, but I don’t know if they are legit or not.

My guess is that the” powers that be” are turning a blind eye and not rock the boat as the housing issue seems to be addressed more reasonably than @ssholes on the Mainland like the Poopils Republic of Surrey
*****************

My thoughts based on following municipal news (mostly BC). The municipalities have been on a spending spree for quite some time – due to the good feelings of delusions associated with the housing bubble (‘the new normal’).

Surrey, BC in the news for telling all homeowners in a new development area (all built with second and third suites) to evict their tenants asap (giving leeway for tenants to find new places to live).

This all came about as the City was receiving a lot of complaints from other residents with respect to the lack of parking on the street (due to all the illegal suites in the area).

Surrey, BC is much like Brampton, ON. Houses and strip malls slowly taking over farmland and both on the fringe of major centres engulfed in housing lust.

Now the CRA (with Direction from a Tax hungry Trudeau) must be aware and the city may have to tax those suites due to lower revenues coming in the door (as development suffers the lack of credit). The Union of BC Municipalities just ask the Provincial government to share the expected marijuana revenues.

The day has come when “WEED” revenue has become a requirement just like the day when the government got into gambling. All vices are good…if you can tax them.

#117 DON on 10.28.17 at 4:35 pm

#112 Ace Goodheart

Thanks for sharing that.

You win more often than not by harvesting gains and getting ahead of the buyers in a depreciating stock with strong fundamentals. Nice!

Contrary to what we humans perceive as ‘winning’.

Thanks for sharing a balanced path.

#118 DON on 10.28.17 at 4:36 pm

Gotta say!

Comments have gotten a lot better lately, other than the trolls and agents with time on their hands.

#119 DON on 10.28.17 at 4:41 pm

#70 Dmitry on 10.27.17 at 10:57 pm

#14 Nonplused

I’m with you on all that.

Or maybe we’re too old now to understand and make sense of all this virtual crap?

I’m in IT myself and been all my life since 98, but do not get all these Facebooks, LinkedIns and other SnapChats. What a waste of time!
**************

Data mining – Cyberwar, business and intelligence. Who else wants to know what you do.

#120 DON on 10.28.17 at 5:22 pm

#91 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.28.17 at 10:41 am

First we have Chinese “whales” flying into Vancouver from the Mainland . Receiving suitcases with millions of dollars in shrinkwrapped bills to “wash” via casinos which they then invest in Real Estate……..
…..and now the door opens a little wider on the former BC Liberal Govts fiscal “integrity”…

$100 Million dollars a year loaned to unidentified foreign investors in BC.
These same investors could apply for up to a 100% tax refund on any profits their company made.

I cant make this stuff up.

Todays New York Times….

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/27/world/americas/british-columbia-tax-breaks.html?ref=todayspaper

The rot in the BC Liberal party reign of error DEMANDS a Commission of inquiry with the ability to subpoena testimony from uncooperative witnesses.

I wont hold my breath even though the political stench is overwhealming.
****************

Makes the Quebec corruption inquiry look so innocent. BC under the BC Liberals( Liberal/Harper Con/Social credit coalition). I say Harper Con because there is also a BC Conservative Party not a part of the former governing government. Weird eh!

And more corruption is surfacing daily. Every deceptive trick in the book has been used. People are calling for a Corruption Inquiry. How can you not!

#121 DON on 10.28.17 at 5:23 pm

Nonplused, Flop, Dolce, Stone, Andrew, Crowded keep the wisdom flowing.

#122 DON on 10.28.17 at 5:41 pm

Dan.t Nicely put!

#123 Lost...but not leased on 10.28.17 at 6:03 pm

#75 Long Time Lurker

Re Elon Musk and the balls to go big time.

I agree Musk has balls….but we’ve seen his type before.

Their modus operandi is to develop some kind of superhuman capacity to supercede thousands of brilliant minds over the centuries.

Doing even a minor amount of research is quite revealing. His companies stock is typical of scams…inflated prices versus no profits. Is this the 1990’s all over again?

The latest is his Solar City has laid off approx 1200 workers.

#124 Bottoms_Up on 10.28.17 at 6:47 pm

#40 Mark on 10.27.17 at 8:32 pm
———————–
More than a shred of evidence:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-11-02/china-s-money-exodus

http://www.cbc.ca/1.4150456

#125 Raincouver on 10.28.17 at 7:03 pm

New Bosa Waterfront Development open house. These are office Strata units for sale in downtown Vancouver. Huge Asian presence. They will be your new landlords for anyone wanting new office space in DT Vancouver. Good luck. They will jack up rents as they see fit! Great for money laundering as well. LOL!

#126 Evangeline on 10.28.17 at 9:13 pm

Elon Musk got billions in government subsidies. I wonder how well he’d do in the marketplace without that help

“Elon Musk’s growing empire is fueled by $4.9 billion in government …

May 31, 2015 · Los Angeles entrepreneur Elon Musk has built a multibillion-dollar fortune running … And he’s built those companies with the help of billions in government subsidies.

latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531”

#127 acdel on 10.28.17 at 9:48 pm

#126 Evangeline

Love him or hate him; look what he has done with these so called subsidies; his vision is truly remarkable and he along others are steering us into a new future; good or bad; that is yet to be determined; but at least he has the balls to go for it.. If you had the same opportunity what would you do?

#128 AGuyInVancouver on 10.28.17 at 10:24 pm

#28 Guillaunme on 10.27.17 at 7:45 pm
Here in the wild west the blame game against “foreign investors” is reaching outrageous levels, even the government leaders are in this. That is very sad to see and hear such xenophobic statements everywhere…we are facing ugly moments here in the West, it would be probably a good time to wake up the BC conservatives, they could be a good alternative if they are able to provide more transparency and higher moral values than the previous BC Libs…
_ _
Wake up and smell the bubble tea buddy.

#129 Evangeline on 10.28.17 at 11:23 pm

Acdel, replying to your #127

Thank you for your response.

I’m not fond of the idea of societies being “steered”. I like the idea of unforced and natural evolutions regulated by the marketplace.

#130 Economically trapped in Manitoba on 10.29.17 at 2:00 pm

Thoughts on the Vancouver Island real estate market. My wife and I have aspirations of moving to VI in retirement. We visit the island from time to time and love it. I have tracked the market over the last few years and made some amateur observations. There are a lot of people across the prairies who are making this same retirement move. Without even considering the foreign buyer impact, I have noticed people’s lives have changed. Families are smaller, with children often moving to other provinces. More of those abandoned parents can now move wherever they please in retirement. The choice is often to a more moderate climate with like-minded retirees. Financially, these people have the ability to make the move–3rd generation farmers, stock brokers, hard working business owners, or beneficiaries. Many people have toiled for years and invested prudently. There are people in Canada that can, and will continue to support the VI real estate market.

Personally, I am discouraged with VI real estate prices. I have worked for 30 years, saved, and invested. Paid off our current home. Affordable VI homes are in deplorable condition and increasing continually. I notice that the $800-$900K homes have a smaller market. Most working class retirees can’t afford those so that puts a lot of pressure on the $500-$600K range homes which often require significant updates. The principle of supply and demand is at work. “Well to do” caucasians will continue to move to VI from across Canada.