Peak house

The doubters on this miserable site and elsewhere in the world of ballsy real estate investors can give it up now. We have seen the end. It is called B-20.

The bank cop (OSFI) – as predicted – yesterday lowered the hammer on the residential market with new rules soon to take effect and virtually guaranteed to dry sales and lower prices. They’re also designed to protect the banks, drop mortgage risk and shield us from our own house lust.

The changes will restrict credit by ensuring most borrowers qualify for lower loans. Soon we’ll have a universal stress test, applicable to everyone regardless of how big a down payment they have in their jeans. The minimum rate is the Bank of Canada benchmark of 4.89% or the current rate plus 2%. No escape. Going short or variable won’t save you. Neither will having 50% to put down. And it doesn’t matter how much money the bank of Mom slipped you. If you fail the test you join Russian athletes.

This effect is stunning.

Six months ago pretty much any moister with a skateboard, a gig to McD’s and parental money could slide into a condo with a loan at 2%. Now the effective rate’s 5%. There has been no other year on record in which mortgage rates more than doubled in a few months. If you buy the theory that house prices got stupid because loan rates crumbled, then you know what’s likely to happen now.

The industry knows it. They hate it.

Mortgage Broker, RateSpy founder and industry spokseguy Rob McLister is unequivocal: “This is easily the most groundshaking mortgage rule of all time, and that’s not an understatement,” he says. Paul Taylor, the mortgage industry boss chimes in: “I am disappointed with the decision to implement a new stress test at whichever is greater of 200 basis points above the contract rate or the benchmark rate. The new qualifying rate will have negative implications for the Canadian mortgage finance market and the national economy as a whole.”

Ontario Real Estate Association head, and ex-politico Tim Hudak is ticked: “OSFI’s new stress test for uninsured mortgages is overkill. These changes will hurt middle class families and punish careful savers the most, forcing them to take on more debt and higher interest payments.”

So how bad is it? Are these guys just moaning because their fees and commissions will piddle away? Or is this a market-killer? Too much, coming on top of the foreign dudes tax, the empty house tax, the CRA crackdown on speckers, the universal rent controls and the assault on Air BnB?

It appears to be a game-changer. With 20% down a family that qualified to buy a $726,000 house last week will swing a deal for only a $570,000 place after the test arrives. That’s 21% less purchasing power. It’s what happens when sub-3% mortgages turn into 5% ones. Given the laws of supply and demand, house prices are on the road to a 21% drop over time – and that would be from GTA prices which are already 20% below last April’s delusional level.

So what to do?

First don’t listen to anybody in the mortgage business tweeting this advice: “If you’re in the mood to buy something, GET PRE-QUALIFIED TODAY as these changes happen January 1st (or before).” Sadly, a lot of inexperienced moisters and ill-informed newbies will do exactly that. The slaughter of the innocents. Guts and juices everywhere.

Seriously. If the OSFI Plus-2 Stress Test is going to choke credit and turn a $725,000 house into one worth $570,000 later, why would you rush out to qualify so you can pay $155,000 too much? Just wait, have less debt, pay it off faster and laugh at your cousin who bought in April of 2017 and tried to shame you.

Second, be real careful about the 905 and the Lower Mainland (including Victoria). House lust slopping over from 416 and urban YVR drove prices in the hinterland to the moon in a totally unsustainable fashion, and big declines lie ahead. After all, the burbs are not the city. There will always be less demand, more new housing stock and all the crap hassles of commuting.

Third, if you’re unhappy with your mortgage lender and want to switch, do it now (if possible). You won’t be stress-tested upon renewal if you stick with your bank, but if you switch you must qualify at the brutal level. If the value of your home has declined in the meantime, you could be offside there, too, since a new appraisal will be needed.

Does this mean your existing institution can offer a less competitive rate and [email protected] will snicker a little into her wicket every time you pass by? Duh. Of course. Short hairs. They got you by them.

Finally, can you get around this stressful new situation by going to a house-horny credit union like Meridian or Vancity where OSFI rules don’t apply? For a while, maybe. But the CUs are not capitalized the way banks are and have a finite pool of real estate money to hand out. More likely is that Ontario and BC will do the prudent thing, and harmonize regs. That’ll ensure omnivorous lenders there don’t create huge new credit union risk the provinces must backstop.

In short, could be epic. Hope you got ready. Peak house is so gone.

_________________________________________________________

Now, what’s this? Has poor Bill Morneau been given a Justin wedgy already, right after yesterday’s media debacle and today’s news about his personal assets? Is crusty space dude Marc Garneau on deck as the new federal money guy? And what’s this big announcement in the morning?

Guess you’ll have to come back here tomorrow. Bring an old sweater or tinned food for Mr. Morneau. Please be generous.

Minister of Transport to Provide Next Steps in Tax Fairness for the Middle Class and Support for Small Businesses

On behalf of Minister of Finance Bill Morneau, Minister of Transport Marc Garneau will provide details of next steps in the Government’s plan to improve tax fairness while fulfilling a commitment to lower the small business tax rate, at an event in Montreal.

A media availability will follow.

286 comments ↓

#1 oopswediditagain on 10.17.17 at 5:50 pm

Well, it looks like I got back into town at a very interesting time. So, it doesn’t look like the OSFI regulations were watered down by all of the respondents “wishes”.

“Respondents asked whether the bulleted items (i.e., loans with insufficient income verification, loans to borrowers with low credit scores, loans to borrowers with high debt serviceability ratios, etc.) needed to all be present to define a loan as non-conforming or if the presence of any one of the bulleted items was sufficient.”

It really gives you an indication of the wild west of lending practices that were available out there.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

"Finally, can you get around this stressful new situation by going to a house-horny credit union like Meridian or Vancity where OSFI rules don’t apply? For a while, maybe."
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

The concern/hope that credit unions will pick up the slack might be premature in light of FICOM’s position on mortgage lending. It seems that in 2016 the provincial regulator was quite concerned about the risk associated with OSFI’s latest regulations. ” Credit unions should be aware that there is potential for these risks to transfer from FRFIs to other lenders.”

http://www.fic.gov.bc.ca/pdf/fid/correspondence/16-2017-LTR.pdf
“BC credit unions are concentrated in residential real estate lending. Given the heightened risks in the BC housing market, and the potential for transfer of risk from FRFIs to BC credit unions, FICOM will place greater attention on the residential mortgage portfolios and associated risk management practices of BC credit unions; in particular, heightened attention will be paid to income verification and third party mortgage originations.”

#2 Andrewski on 10.17.17 at 5:53 pm

According to a Canadian Press article:

“The federal government is moving to pare down its controversial tax proposal on passive income so that it will only affect three per cent of small businesses.

A senior government official tells The Canadian Press that Finance Minister Bill Morneau will be in New Brunswick on Wednesday to unveil changes to his passive investment proposal so that it only targets unfair tax advantages used by the wealthy.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity ahead of the announcement, says Morneau will also share updated estimates showing there’s between $200 billion and $300 billion in assets sitting in the passive investment accounts of just two per cent of all private corporations.

The official says the finance minister will also point out that dollar figure is growing by $16 billion per year as wealthy incorporated individuals reap unlimited benefits from tax-advantaged savings accounts over and above RRSPs and TFSAs.

The government is tweaking its original proposal after hearing concerns that cracking down on passive investments could adversely affect middle-class entrepreneurs who use their companies to save for economic downturns, sick leaves and parental leaves.

The official refused to provide additional details ahead of Wednesday’s announcement, part of a week-long Liberal effort to calm the anger surrounding the tax proposals, which have outraged entrepreneurs, doctors, tax professionals, farmers and Liberal backbench MPs.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau began the week by announcing tax cuts for small businesses and plans to abandon part of one of the proposals to avoid negative impacts on the intergenerational transfer of family businesses, like farms.

The official says the problem isn’t with individuals, but the system, since it encourages wealthy Canadians to keep their personal money inside their corporations so they can receive tax advantages not available to everyone else.
The changes will not be retroactive, as outlined in the original proposal, and they will not affect existing savings, nor the income from those savings, the official said.

Morneau is expected to provide further details Wednesday on the changes to its passive-investment proposal, including a timeline and a plan for addressing the concerns of angel investors and venture capitalists.

In announcing the proposals last summer, Morneau recommended limits on the use of private corporations to make passive investments that are unrelated to the company.

However, tax experts have warned the original proposal would threaten entrepreneurship in Canada by preventing some business owners from saving for retirement, maternity leaves and economic slowdowns.”

The Canadian Press.

#3 ShawnG in TO on 10.17.17 at 5:54 pm

reading today’s blog is making me so happy.
over to you, Happy Housing Crash Everyone! !

#4 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.17.17 at 5:56 pm

Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#5 Nick on 10.17.17 at 5:57 pm

RIP

#6 ShawnG in TO on 10.17.17 at 5:58 pm

how do you identify the ignorant and house horny ? anyone who is buying between now and Jan 1.

to those who wants to sell, but missed March-April: do anything to sell now, come Jan 1, you’d have to make a much bigger price cut.

#7 O2 on 10.17.17 at 5:59 pm

Now that the stress test will take effect on all mortgages, what does this mean for offshore buyers. Will they now have to qualify by demonstrating their non-existent (offshore) income? Does this kill the $3.0 M plus housing market all together?

#8 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 10.17.17 at 5:59 pm

Can I say, this is EXACTLY what is and was needed years ago?

Can I say, THANK GOD, for this?

Cay I say, I do feel bad for homeowners that got sucked in.

My advice: Sell now, you won’t lose as much.

I won’t be gleefully rubbing my hands together to see people fail, but I will be happy Canada (and Canadians) are doing the right thing to reign in run-a-way housing debt.

Bill Morneau, you have another fan.

#9 Smartalox on 10.17.17 at 6:00 pm

Didn’t an early draft of B-20 include a prime +3% stress test for mortgage renewals?

Or is the OSFI expecting that the 20% (some say 40%) decline in prices that this will usher in will just lower the value of everyone’s homes, and then heavy HELOC balances and the bank’s own ‘Loan-to-Value’ demands for all those newly re-appraised properties will do the job just as well, instead?

Or maybe they’re saving that ‘sliver bullet’ for next year – for B-21 – in case B-20 can’t do the job?

#10 pam on 10.17.17 at 6:00 pm

Time for BM to take a vacation at his villa. T2 needs to take a permanent vacation.

#11 Unbalanced on 10.17.17 at 6:01 pm

It’s gonna be a wild ride for some

#12 Bobby on 10.17.17 at 6:01 pm

It’s amateur hour in Ottawa these days. Two entitled trust fund benefactors dressed up as middle class champions. It can’t get any goofier than that.

Yes, sadly it seems both our PM and now Morneau just weren’t ready!

#13 wallflower on 10.17.17 at 6:03 pm

Inventory growing in Barrie… units on market three plus months. Some price decreases. Some lease tactics. Sticky prices. Talk about catching a falling knife… a real slicer now. Silly, silly, greedy people who egregiously overpriced at numbers far above historical. Skrooed now.

#14 Karma on 10.17.17 at 6:04 pm

Great pic!

#15 Jimmy on 10.17.17 at 6:05 pm

Time to claim FIRST again!

#16 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.17.17 at 6:07 pm

I’ve been singing all day. Hey you dirty SHYSTERS will you advise your clients to not buy and to wait for prices to crash? If you don’t you are [email protected] and just evil scum of the earth SHYSTERS.

#17 Long Branch Apprentice e on 10.17.17 at 6:08 pm

#StopHarper

LOL

Idiots.

#18 Stone on 10.17.17 at 6:08 pm

So how bad is it?

– Bad. Bad is good though.

Are these guys just moaning because their fees and commissions will piddle away?

– Yes. I think HHCE will be able to add some zest to that one.

Or is this a market-killer?

– Yes. At least I’m hoping it will be.

Too much, coming on top of the foreign dudes tax, the empty house tax, the CRA crackdown on speckers, the universal rent controls and the assault on Air BnB?

– No. please sir, may I have some more?

Since non of this impacts me directly, lets consider the value of a balanced and diversified portfolio instead. So yesterday, it was at 7.99% YTD with all distributions and today it ended at 8.02%. Not a lot of movement this week so far but ever upward and better than 7.88% from last Friday. Even that’s a fantastic return. Renting is good too. Go B-20. Let’s see how much muscle you have. I’ve got high expectations of you. Don’t let me done. LOL

#19 Toronto is for winners, not WHINERS! on 10.17.17 at 6:09 pm

Canadian-born women in Toronto are resilient. House prices and real estate in the Greater Toronto Area will never fall…It only has to go up in value. Over 150,000 newcomers call our great city their new home in Canada.
Where will you find those new real estate for newcomers?
Toronto is growing. The population in Toronto was 2.5 million in 2011. In 2016, it rose to 2.8 million and expected to grow to 3.4 million by 2020.

Toronto is ranked #1 by The Economist magazine as the best city in the world.

Our country focusses on equality rather than the American style of discrimination, sexism and slavery.

Toronto is not Detroit by any stretch because we are a growing city.

If Toronto was declining, why would investors pay for a project of a whopping 93 story skyscraper at King Street, and a whooping 88 story condo next door to that?

Toronto is a growing city and we respect women. Toronto is for winners, not losers. Now if we can enforce bylaws to ban the homeless from creating an eyesore at Yonge-Dundas square by demolishing the local community centres like Evergreen that would be great. We can build another 80 story condo in place of Evergreen. Toronto is for winners, not losers.

#20 ILoveCharts on 10.17.17 at 6:13 pm

Many people will rely on parents to cosign mortgages. Lots of untapped slack in the system there.

#21 renter in Surrey on 10.17.17 at 6:15 pm

So $1 mil house in Langley is going to be $0.8 mil now?

What a deal…

Same house in Dallas is around $250K, three times cheaper.

#22 Oakville sucks on 10.17.17 at 6:16 pm

We can’t forget about…TREB competition bureau Court decision….and NAFTA job losses coming soon that will bring prices down even more!

#23 Joe2.0 on 10.17.17 at 6:16 pm

rinse and repeat

#24 Randy Cross on 10.17.17 at 6:16 pm

Lucky there’s no Middle Class anymore

#25 Cottingham a bargain on 10.17.17 at 6:17 pm

DELETED

#26 When the Whip Comes Down on 10.17.17 at 6:17 pm

#1 I Love Charts
I suspect that was already happening to a wide degree so how much slack is there now is questionable. How to measure that reliably.

#27 Victoria Real Estate Update on 10.17.17 at 6:18 pm

A HOUSING PRICE CORRECTION ISN’T OVER UNTIL HOUSEHOLD DEBT LEVELS RETURN TO “NORMAL“, SAFE LEVELS

This fact is common knowledge among those who have studied national housing bubbles from around the world. There have been many national housing bubbles over the past 50 years (Japan, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Iceland to name a few). In each case the major housing price correction that took place (it happens with every housing bubble) didn’t establish a bottom until household debt levels fell back in line with the long-term average of that country (to “normal”, safe levels).

Elevated household debt levels present a threat to the economy of a country. That threat doesn’t disappear until debt levels return to the long-term average of that country.

It’s easy to understand how important consumer spending is to a country’s economy. In Canada, for example, almost two thirds of the economy is based on it.

When consumers take on too much debt (and house prices stop rising), the wealth effect reverses and no longer masks the problems associated with extreme household debt levels. The obvious effect of extremely inflated household debt levels (and falling house prices) is that consumer spending falls well below average. What this does to a “consumer spending” economy like Canada’s is also obvious.

Credible experts who have studied housing bubbles from around the world know all about the role that household debt levels play in a housing bubble. You may notice how the housing industry in Canada pretty much ignores this conversation.

Of all the housing bubbles the world has seen, the US bubble is, perhaps the one that most Canadians are familiar with. It peaked in 2006/07.

Before the American housing bubble inflated, household debt levels were at “normal”, safe levels (approximately in line with the country’s historical mean). The same could be said about house prices. During the boom years of the bubble, American households accumulated debt (mostly mortgage) at a an unusually fast rate. House prices skyrocketed as a result. Even before the peak of the US housing bubble in 2006/07, household debt had reached dangerous levels (this happens with every housing bubble).

As soon as debt levels reach dangerous levels, the return to “normal”, safe levels is inevitable. The housing bubble party can be extended for some time by loosening mortgage lending standards even more and allowing even more mortgage fraud to take place (think Canada), but this results in an even bigger mountain of household debt, which, of course, requires an even bigger decline in debt levels to return to “normal”, safe levels.

The deeper the inevitable decline in household debt levels, the deeper the accompanying housing price correction.

Similar to the US (and for the same reason – the implementation of lax mortgage lending standards), household debt levels in Canada also began to skyrocket after 2000 ((see third chart)). As a result of this unprecedented expansion of mortgage credit, house prices in Canada soared as much (or more) as in the US from 2000-2006/07).

At the end of 2006, Canada chose to loosen lending standards even more (and allowed even more mortgage fraud) to avoid the inevitable housing price correction that had started (at the same time as the US correction).

Those who work in the Canadian housing industry would cry, moan and stomp their feet (like whiny children) and say the above facts are not true (with no facts, stats, etc. to back their claims).

It doesn’t take a genius to understand that the facts always tell the true story (and not whining and moaning).

The facts are clearly on display (here, (third chart)). This chart shows that from 2000 to 2008, household debt levels increased by (approximately) the same amount in Canada as in the US.

As a result of lax lending standards and skyrocketing debt levels in Canada and the US from 2000 to 2006/07, both countries experienced similar (bubble) gains in house prices (first chart).

The above facts show that, by 2006/08, household debt levels in Canada were as abnormally and dangerously elevated as those in the US.

Of course, Canada chose to keep the party going after 2006 by loosening mortgage lending standards even more (and allowing even more mortgage fraud), which resulted in an even bigger mountain of household debt. This bigger pile of debt will, or course, require a bigger drop to return to “normal”, safe levels. Obviously, the accompanying drop in house prices will also be substantially bigger.

Kicking the can down the road creates bigger problems in the future.

All housing bubbles go through boom years and bust years.

Canada’s bust years have been delayed by destructive policy. The end result of years of destructive policy is a massive pile of household debt which has been building at an abnormal and dangerous rate since 2000.

Canada’s bust years will not be unlike those of any other housing bubble – debt levels will be brought back to “normal”, safe levels. House prices will follow.

#28 TnT on 10.17.17 at 6:19 pm

Russian trade wars incoming…

Canadian Magnitsky Act passed

https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/920382279913963522

The end of the Cold War left too much money on the table.

Game on….

#29 Spock on 10.17.17 at 6:20 pm

Read and weep SCM:

http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/75000-manufacturing-jobs-lost-thats-the-price-of-ontarios-electricity-disaster

#30 david on 10.17.17 at 6:20 pm

Only those with a gross debt service ratio over 33% at the contract rate will be affected by the stress test. Everyone with less than this debt service ratio prior to the test applied will not breach the 39% threshold. If a lender uses a higher threshold, then your contract rate GDS can be higher than 33% before you are affected. So only those with high debt service ratios will be affected, which means few Atlantic, few rural loans will be affected. Stressing only matters if you breach the limit. if it brings you from 25% to 31%, you still get the same loan, same rate. no impact.

#31 Nik on 10.17.17 at 6:22 pm

Seems like this has caught a lot of media savvy RE industry people by surprise. Since the announcement this morning most reporting in the prominent media outlets has been kinda subdued. no RE pundits or economists on CBC’s “On the Money” to whine and give their perspective. Instead they had a financial planner who did have the right perspective on this.

I feel that both federal and provincial governments (at least BC) have stayed away from housing affordability as they probably knew a month ago that this OSFI thing was a done deal.
Happy to have sold in March of this year in Lower Mainland. Metro Van market has been nuts in the last 6 months and my prediction is this will really have an impact on condo pricing which was the segment that really went out of control.

#32 Long gone on 10.17.17 at 6:25 pm

That Tim Hudak quote: “These changes will hurt middle class families and punish careful savers the most, forcing them to take on more debt and higher interest payments”

Forcing who to take on more debt? This forces people to take on LESS DEBT. That is the whole point. What on earth is he talking about?

It’s the last 15+ years of CMHC being run for the benefit of the real estate industry that has forced people to take on more debt.

I’m so sick of these whiners, especially when they brazenly lie.

#33 Doug t on 10.17.17 at 6:28 pm

Poor Bill – what’s he gonna do now? Shlep around his mansion and ponder over which offer to accept from some mega corporation itching to throw uber bucks his way – poor poor Bill – let’s all take a moment of silence for poor Bill

RAGE AGAINST THE MACHINE

#34 Saint Herb on 10.17.17 at 6:30 pm

Ontario Real Estate Association head, and ex-politico Tim Hudak is ticked: “OSFI’s new stress test for uninsured mortgages is overkill. These changes will hurt middle class families and punish careful savers the most, forcing them to take on more debt and higher interest payments.”

What is this guy talking about? Don’t the rules mean you can borough LESS. You don’t pay an extra 2% you just qualify at the higher rate. If anything you have a lower mortgage payment since they gave you less money.

This guy is an idiot. Correct me if I’m wrong..

#35 TnT on 10.17.17 at 6:31 pm

#19 Toronto is for winners, not WHINERS! on 10.17.17 at 6:09 pm

Pretty sure you may be trolling but it has been calculated that it will take 41 years for Toronto Home Price To Incomes Ratios to be balanced.

Maybe B-20 will hasten the balance?

#36 ole Doberman on 10.17.17 at 6:32 pm

If this effectively raises rates x 2 shouldnt house prices drop 50%, or is that a moldy basement dweller pipe dream?!

#37 the ryguy on 10.17.17 at 6:32 pm

#19 Toronto is for winners, not WHINERS! on 10.17.17 at 6:09 pm

Not sure if this post was meant to be funny, I thought it was, if so then good job.

Anyway, funny you mention luxury towers in TO.

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/malaysian-corruption-allegedly-spreads-to-canadian-real-estate

Like I said yesterday, tip of the iceberg, Canadian RE is the cayman islands for dirty world money.

#38 #3 of the Majestic 12 on 10.17.17 at 6:33 pm

Thought the dogs might enjoy this. Apologies for those that have read this before.

“How to explain the world with two cows”. Here is the link:
https://www.boredpanda.com/corporation-economies-explained-cows-ecownomics/

#39 LivinLarge on 10.17.17 at 6:34 pm

“i love charts” hit the nail on the head. Parents cosigning will again come out of retirement in a huge way. It’s the time honoured way for a strapped child to get any credit when they don’t qualify on their own merits.

The lenders need the cash flow so they’re just going to condition the loans.

This is what happened in the 70s when actual rates sky rocketed and this is what will happen now. Where there is a will, there’s a way and the lenders have to lend to keep their quarterly earnings beating last year’s.

This stress test sounds like a horror but the accountants and lawyers will get to work and find the work around beccause that’s what they’re paid to do.

#40 Looney Baloney on 10.17.17 at 6:42 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-october-17-2017-1.4357235/why-trudeau-took-questions-directed-to-his-finance-minister-at-tax-reform-conference-1.4357276

LMAO “Yes, but you have an opportunity to talk to the Prime Minister!!”

Big friggin deal. The reporter should have just said “I am greatly honoured to be in thy presence O’ honourable prime minister, but I wish to speak with the finance minister instead. Could you please step aside? You are in the way.” Journos these days have no balls.

#41 Nancy Vieira on 10.17.17 at 6:43 pm

Thank you Mr. Turner for your clarity on future real estate. With over 25 years in real estate, and having experienced personally the ups and downs of the market; I have been advising the millennials to hold off and save their dollars for more purchasing power come late 2018 onwards. Unlike the baby boomers that purchased and have paid off their mortgages and are now selling their investments for amazing amounts that can allow them to make long term decisions for themselves and help out with their families real estate future purchases. Coming from a time of my first mortgage in 1981 with an interest rate 18.25% to today at 3.4% , I would say the stress test is very important for keeping the millennials safe from a unrealistic housing market. Nancy Vieira PREC, Real Estate agent with Pemberton Holmes Ltd.

#42 Rexx Rock on 10.17.17 at 6:44 pm

Garth maybe right this time,even in Victoria.Although even with Victoria’s high wages,many couples will not be able to afford a house but a condo instead.Many will give up the dream to live in paradise and go for some Siberian city like Edmonton.Tragic and sad for so many Canadians.
On a lighter note I read that many couples are cashing on their YVR lottery house and moving to Vancouver Island and the Okanogan to retire early.Retiring from 45 to 55 is the new reality for YVR homeowners who bough in early.At least they are leaving behind good paying jobs for the young!

#43 Welcome to Slurrey on 10.17.17 at 6:45 pm

In short, could be epic. Hope you got ready. Peak house is so gone ………………………….

Woof, hasn’t this been the mantra for at least 7 years Garth. As much as I agree with your investing logic and housing being overvalued, peak housing was supposed to be long ago. If the herd moves together, it will continue to move irrationally. Logic dictated a correction long ago, lower mainland is past that logic. I’m sure most held off on buying when houses were 700,000 (at “Peak”) in the lower mainland, now everyone wants it to fall to ” Peak” again. Why ? Since comparably now peak is better than the insanity of 2015/2016/2017…………. Sorry folks, wages still haven’t caught up, you will still have to leverage a lot to “buy” in the lowermainland………..

#44 Cecil Henry on 10.17.17 at 6:47 pm

When are they going to do something actually fair for productive people??

Like LOWERING income taxes for all.

Like raising the TFSA allowance to $50,000/year like it is in the UK.

The Liberal’s efforts to attack the successful through government without openly initiating a confrontation, by cloaking their assaults within layers of phony empathy, is despicable. (the Liberal will only sate their empathy with the money of others)

This same urge manifests in a desire to use government to disrupt the life of a successful, happy individual through onerous taxes, governmental regulation, or other infringements upon their freedom.

Where the productive man dreams of the things he might create if only left alone by his fellows, the Progressive dreams of the world he could create if only the lives and property of his fellows were at his disposal.

#45 AGuyInVancouver on 10.17.17 at 6:49 pm

Garth, as someone who was hung out to dry by the political establishment I’m surprised you seem to be relishing Morneau’s humiliation. Do you really believe he entered politics to feather his nest? As I said yesterday, this just seems like another cautionary tale to anyone looking to get involved in politics. His likely brief from the PMO was to get more tax revenue to help pay for the promises, yet once he does, he’s hung out to dry.

Only NDPers enter politics to increase their net worth. Bill is just hapless. – Garth

#46 Grumpy Cat on 10.17.17 at 6:50 pm

Good.

#47 dr. talc on 10.17.17 at 6:52 pm

People , this is a dog and pony show, another test of your gullibility.
So why is Jeremy waiting until Jan 1, Right after the Christmas seasonal slowdown? Why not do it immediately?
Because this is ‘good cop bad cop’: it gives his critics lots of time to mount an opposition to his empty rhetoric: they will expose his war on non existent risk, his red herring arguments about the ‘credit worthiness of the borrower’ and
his dumbass statements like ‘ we cant just wait until people default before we act’ because someone will stand up and say ‘why not’?
People, this is ‘pre-crime’ legislation from a Hollywood movie, unfortunately we are living in a bad B movie

#48 Eyestrain on 10.17.17 at 6:55 pm

As much as I enjoy the odd raving lunatic rant on this blog, the posts are getting too long to read, let alone comprehend. Could we all embrace the concept of brevity and pray that Garth follows suit ?

#49 TRUMP on 10.17.17 at 6:58 pm

Is That Morneau on the roof……..

#50 Alex S on 10.17.17 at 7:00 pm

Ontario Real Estate Association head, and ex-politico Tim Hudak is ticked: “OSFI’s new stress test for uninsured mortgages is overkill. These changes will hurt middle class families and punish careful savers the most, forcing them to take on more debt and higher interest payments.”

Is he nuts?

#51 Looney Baloney on 10.17.17 at 7:01 pm

The realtors are fuming – that’s as sure a sign as any that B20 is going to rain on the real estate party!

What’s interesting is why the credit unions are chiming in with their disapproval. It’s almost like they are saying “we know the borrowers this will send our way are bottom scrapers and we don’t want their business”.

Throw in a couple more rate hikes by the end of next year and two or more potential consecutive dismal job reports (from the smb tax hike) and you have the perfect RE storm in 2018.

Interesting times. Long repo companies, payday lenders and the big five. Short Audis, travel and recreation. Renting gives you a front row seat to the show. The only ones with a better view are the roadkill.

#52 Entrepreneur on 10.17.17 at 7:01 pm

#26 VREU…excellent but most of us know that debt is bad to the economy especially long term but obviously the leaders of this and other countries could care less of the people within their boarders.

Or else rules would have been in place to protect people living beyond their means with debt/on debt. And know that most people are sheep, do what others are doing.

We all know that consumers are needed to keep the country’s economy going. But when knowingly allowing such lending practices to carry on as if it does not exist is irresponsible and irrational.

Bloggers have mentioned “rinse and repeat” here like this is normal so we can see people suffer. Time to change this.

#53 dakkie on 10.17.17 at 7:04 pm

Why the Canada Real Estate CRASH Will Cause the BIGGEST CRISIS Since 1930’s!

http://investmentwatchblog.com/why-the-canada-real-estate-crash-will-cause-the-biggest-crisis-since-1930s/

#54 TortyPapa on 10.17.17 at 7:04 pm

This 2% add will eliminate a lot of people trying to get into the low end SFD here in Vancouver? Buying power lowered and no more money coming in from China could mean a big drop in SFD prices?

#55 The News on 10.17.17 at 7:06 pm

“Now, what’s this? Has poor Bill Morneau been given a Justin wedgy already, right after yesterday’s media debacle and today’s news about his personal assets? Is crusty space dude Marc Garneau on deck as the new federal money guy? And what’s this big announcement in the morning?”

According to a press release issued maybe 10 minutes before the one you quoted, the Finance Minister will be providing an identical update in New Brunswick. Looks like his job is safe for now.

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2017/10/minister_of_financetoprovidenextstepsintaxfairnessforthemiddlecl.html

Wow. New Brunswick. – Garth

#56 lol on 10.17.17 at 7:10 pm

This whole NAFTA thing seems to be working out peachy as well.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/trumps-nafta-plan-is-clear-now-canada-has-to-ride-it-out/article36621104/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&amp;

plus rates going up

and

the one of the biggest government revenue streams getting whacked, land transfer tax, realtor/broker commission income tax, cmhc fees, property tax increases.

not sure where the gov is going to make up all this lost revenue.

Banks just beat every single canadian to a pulp though, get ready for highway robbery on your mortgage renewal. Many Canadians will be given the choice of selling their property and being locked out of the market or paying a rate with a nice big margin for the banks at the risk of every canadian tax payer and bank customer.

winners:
banks
bank shareholders who rent

losers:
everyone else.

#57 SCM on 10.17.17 at 7:10 pm

These regulations are long overdue. Quite frankly they should have been implemented 10 years ago. Where were they then?

Harper was too busy DEREGULATING. Bloody fool.

Special investigation: How high-risk mortgages crept north
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/special-investigation-how-high-risk-mortgages-crept-north/article1067885/?page=all

#58 MSM-Free Zone on 10.17.17 at 7:12 pm

#31 Saint Herb on 10.17.17 at 6:30 pm
________________________________

Agreed. OREA CEO, former PC epic failure, Tim Hudak is in full-blown Trumpian B.S. mode today, without even the slightest attempt at disguising his own collective REALTURD®’s self-serving, conflict of interest.

“…Seriously. If the OSFI Plus-2 Stress Test is going to choke credit and turn a $725,000 house into one worth $570,000 later, why would you rush out to qualify so you can pay $155,000 too much? Just wait, have less debt, pay it off faster and laugh at your cousin who bought in April of 2017 and tried to shame you….”

Probably the best piece of advice from Garth all year.

#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.17 at 7:13 pm

@#19 Toronto is for winners….”
“Canadian-born women in Toronto are resilient.”
+++++
Margret Atwood? Is that you?
I thought you were still on the road in Europe receiving accolades for the book you published 30 years ago….and you have time for us “little people”?
I feel blessed.

#60 SCM on 10.17.17 at 7:16 pm

#29 Spock on 10.17.17 at 6:20 pm
Read and weep SCM:

http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/75000-manufacturing-jobs-lost-thats-the-price-of-ontarios-electricity-disaster

My god you’re obsessed with me.

Yeah Mike Harris’ quasi-privatization and breakup of Ontario Hydro has been a total and complete disaster. No doubt about it. Conservative policies are disastrous.

Meanwhile, Quebec has the lowest electricity rates in North America. You know why? Hydro-Quebec is owned by the province. That’s right a state-owned public utility. Madness! Those damn socialists!!!!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydro-Quebec

Shall I remind you of the $1 TRILLION in the bank that those pinko socialists have in Norway?

#61 sean on 10.17.17 at 7:16 pm

Airbus takes a majority stake in Bombardier C Series program for $1:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-majority-stake-bombardier-cseries-jet-program-013522936–finance.html

Back to the regular, cozy duopoly situation.

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.17 at 7:19 pm

@#48 Eyestrain
“As much as I enjoy the odd raving lunatic rant on this blog, the posts are getting too long to read, let alone comprehend. Could we all embrace the concept of brevity”
*****

Well, just read one lunatic per day.
Read me 1st

#63 jess on 10.17.17 at 7:22 pm

lives and works in alberta?

…”PC Party rules state any eligible candidate must have lived in Ontario for six months prior to an election. But while she’s still not a resident of the province, Khattra says her eligibility to run shouldn’t be an issue.”
https://www.therecord.com/news-story/7659490-dentist-seeking-pc-nomination-in-cambridge-clarifies-residency-issue/

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.17 at 7:25 pm

@#56 SCM
“Meanwhile, Quebec has the lowest electricity rates in North America. You know why? Hydro-Quebec is owned by the province. That’s right a state-owned public utility. Madness! Those damn socialists!!!!”
++++++

Ya might wanna brush up on your Boomer era history my breathless socialista.
Quebecs power is so cheap due to the idiots in Newfoundland that signed a money losing deal in 1969 to sell Quebec Hydro their power….at a loss.
Newfoundland has been trying to renegotiate the deal ever since…..

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/nalcor-appeals-churchill-falls-power-loss-1.3751681&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwiTsbfa5vjWAhVI32MKHU7LC1wQFggUMAA&usg=AOvVaw3tx63SBCh3yecioBtYtKex

#65 Pete from St. Cesaire on 10.17.17 at 7:26 pm

39 LivinLarge on 10.17.17 at 6:34 pm “i love charts” hit the nail on the head. Parents cosigning will again come out of retirement in a huge way. It’s the time honoured way for a strapped child to get any credit when they don’t qualify on their own merits.
———————————————————
I’m sure that’s part of the plan to further destroy the middle class. Make them mortgage themselves to the hilt for their kids, only to have it all come crashing down wiping out the fortunes of all generations.

#66 Stone on 10.17.17 at 7:26 pm

#39 LivinLarge on 10.17.17 at 6:34 pm
“i love charts” hit the nail on the head. Parents cosigning will again come out of retirement in a huge way. It’s the time honoured way for a strapped child to get any credit when they don’t qualify on their own merits.

The lenders need the cash flow so they’re just going to condition the loans.

This is what happened in the 70s when actual rates sky rocketed and this is what will happen now. Where there is a will, there’s a way and the lenders have to lend to keep their quarterly earnings beating last year’s.

This stress test sounds like a horror but the accountants and lawyers will get to work and find the work around beccause that’s what they’re paid to do.

—-

Well, that all depends. Does Mommy and Daddy have the cash to give outright? Do they need to refinance their home to give the kiddies the dough? Is there any equity left in the house now that houses may be worth less? Are Mommy and Daddy already tapped out? This may well be the greatest redistribution of wealth Canada has seen for some time. Forced redistribution that is. If that happens, that means consumption occurs which feeds my ETFs and pays me lovely distributions and provides further capital gains. Oh my, oh my. I’m giddy with anticipation.

I wonder if SCM practiced some consumption today as well. I hope he did. My dividends are hungry and want to be fed.

#67 Lost...but not Leased on 10.17.17 at 7:28 pm

Marc GarnEAU never went into space..,

but I am on board for Bombardier to cobble together some sort of Shuttle to colonize Mars with Liberals such as TrudEAU…MoronEAU.

Pa$$ the hat….err chapEAU

#68 Alex S on 10.17.17 at 7:28 pm

Oh, I got Tim Hudak.

He was probably speaking about scenario when someone is not qualified to get a mortgage from a bank and this person will go to alternative lenders with higher mortgage rates. We are indeed blessed he is the head of OREA, not the province.

#69 Chelsea on 10.17.17 at 7:29 pm

Best news I have heard in a long time. Looking forward to the lower, more sensible home prices, so we can go looking again. No-body in their right mind should be in the market buying these boated home prices. Well, if they did, shame on you …. unfortunately, your debt will over power you, I know from past experience. Luckily, I came to my senses. Personally, if you loose your home, can’t pay the mortgage payment, it is not our problem, just deal with it and move on. Just, remember you cannot walk away from your mortgage, it will follow you until death.

Cheers

#70 SCM on 10.17.17 at 7:30 pm

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.17 at 7:25 pm

Wrong as always cef. It’s because Quebec has a state-owned utility run by the government that acts in the interests of the people, not shareholder leeches. A Quebecois politician running on a platform of privatizing Hydro-Quebec would be laughed out of the room and hopefully tar-and-feathered. Shame we didn’t do the same to Mike Harris. Nothing common sense about breaking up a perfectly good utility like Ontario Hydro.

#71 Spock on 10.17.17 at 7:32 pm

No sympathy for wild Bill.

If his job was to increase tax revenue, he could have gone after the stock options and family trusts as per previous promises. Those would have given a lot more tax than the supposed $250 million that these changes were supposed to bring.

$250 million is a drop in the bucket – if these clowns in power just sit inside their home and not do anything for a week that will save the country more than $250 million.

Maybe that is why he did not setup a blind trust or sell his shares.

—————————
#45 AGuyInVancouver on 10.17.17 at 6:49 pm
Garth, as someone who was hung out to dry by the political establishment I’m surprised you seem to be relishing Morneau’s humiliation. Do you really believe he entered politics to feather his nest? As I said yesterday, this just seems like another cautionary tale to anyone looking to get involved in politics.

His likely brief from the PMO was to get more tax revenue to help pay for the promises, yet once he does, he’s hung out to dry.

#72 Linda on 10.17.17 at 7:35 pm

#32 Long Gone – Timmy is obviously hoping/expecting folks to continue to purchase homes at the current over priced levels. If they do this, his comment is valid. Of course, those who do this are financial Darwin Awards types. Ignorance of the law being no excuse for the young, innocent moisters – the law in this case being ‘Buyer Beware’. Shame on those who take advantage, but if those who took advantage felt shame at doing so, presumably they wouldn’t continue the practice.

#73 Spock on 10.17.17 at 7:36 pm

Not obsessed bud fox. I thought you would be interested in reading it.

I am not too sure of Hydro Quebec and its workings but I have to be on board with you on this one as to how the industry has been decimated by bad decisions. You forgot to mention our current esteemed leader Wynn and the other incompetent person before her.

Let us celebrate – our first agreement on failure of Hydro in Ontario. :-(

——————
#60 SCM on 10.17.17 at 7:16 pm
#29 Spock on 10.17.17 at 6:20 pm
Read and weep SCM:

#74 For those about to flop... on 10.17.17 at 7:37 pm

Pink Pumpkins being carved in North Vancouver.

To be honest ,not real sure what is the deal with this one.

Might need a second,third and forth opinion.

If you look at the sales history it states the house was sold twice on the same day ,7th of March last year.

Once for 2.62 and again for 2.4….could be a typo or mistake or whatever you want to call it ,but if it stands then this one is Pink Pumpkins,Confirmed Pink Snow and whatever other stupid sentences I have made up since my study began.

Whatever happened last year is one thing ,but the current person is in trouble too,no matter which of the two numbers you are working with.

Tell me what you think…

M43BC

976 Leovista Ave,North Vancouver. Paid 2.62/2.4 March 2016 ass 2.1

Jul 24:$2,688,000
Oct 12: $2,498,000
Change: – 190000.00 -7%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=976%20Leovista%20Avenue,%20North%20Vancouver&ptype_house=1&max_price=1400000&min_pricet=800000&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyODQ5UA==

#75 Spock on 10.17.17 at 7:37 pm

He always had a problem getting his message across clearly, did he not ;-)

I came to the same conclusion from his words. How folks will go to another lender without the primary lender knowing is something that I am not sure. Maybe Tim can enlighten the sheep.

————————-
#68 Alex S on 10.17.17 at 7:28 pm
Oh, I got Tim Hudak.

He was probably speaking about scenario when someone is not qualified to get a mortgage from a bank and this person will go to alternative lenders with higher mortgage rates. We are indeed blessed he is the head of OREA, not the province.

#76 Md on 10.17.17 at 7:41 pm

Don’t think this will kill the market. I can’t see people running out to sell their house for a loss just because of b20 changes. They bought what they bought for regardless of how close to the “peak” they bought and that’s that. As long as they can continue to afford their place they will stay there…might be a long stay..but they will stay there. So I wouldn’t get to excited about all this.

#77 Md on 10.17.17 at 7:44 pm

I mean, if I buy a place and intend to stay there and raise a family and live my life…what do I care if the price goes up a hundred thousand or down a hundred thousand?

#78 MSM-Free Zone on 10.17.17 at 7:45 pm

Wondering if Tim Hudak reads GFN (Greater Fool Network) like Trump reads CNN.

At least Hudak was man enough to recognize his own shortcomings.

Agent Orange. Not so much. Today, once again, the self-absorbed, thin-skinned, serial-lying man-child once again trolls the apparently bottomless depths of arrogant stupidity as only Trump can do.

#79 SCM on 10.17.17 at 7:47 pm

#74 For those about to flop… on 10.17.17 at 7:37 pm

Hey buddy just wanted to say I’m a big fan of your posts and research. I don’t think you’re told that enough.

#80 dr. talc on 10.17.17 at 7:51 pm

#32 Long gone on 10.17.17 at 6:25 pm
That Tim Hudak quote: “These changes will hurt middle class families and punish careful savers the most, forcing them to take on more debt and higher interest payments”

Forcing who to take on more debt? This forces people to take on LESS DEBT. That is the whole point. What on earth is he talking about?

—-

These changes Are designed to help the ‘middle class’:
But I don’t know who Tim is referring to, my definition middle class is ‘above average’: well educated, high income, large down payment professionals, in other words- folks to whom a stress test is nothing more than a nuisance. In other words, some of them don’t even need the mortgage, they just want it. It’s the groups below that that will be hurt: Self employed, newcomers, lower income, less down, credit issues, less documentation etc.
I hate to use the word ‘average’ Canadian, but I think they will be hurt

#81 For those about to flop... on 10.17.17 at 7:57 pm

Nancy Vieira at 6:43 pm
Thank you Mr. Turner for your clarity on future real estate. With over 25 years in real estate, and having experienced personally the ups and downs of the market; I have been advising the millennials to hold off and save their dollars for more purchasing power come late 2018 onwards. Unlike the baby boomers that purchased and have paid off their mortgages and are now selling their investments for amazing amounts that can allow them to make long term decisions for themselves and help out with their families real estate future purchases. Coming from a time of my first mortgage in 1981 with an interest rate 18.25% to today at 3.4% , I would say the stress test is very important for keeping the millennials safe from a unrealistic housing market. Nancy Vieira PREC, Real Estate agent with Pemberton Holmes Ltd.

///////////////////////

Hey Nancy,feel free to say no but would you like to do five recent sales with me?

I’ve got two left feet,and this could be the reason that I have had trouble finding a dance partner on here.

That and the fact most realtors don’t want the public to know what’s going on.

Crea did not count on the situation where some nimrod from Tasmania comes in and tries to make a difference.

How do you plan for that…

M43BC

#82 Stone on 10.17.17 at 8:00 pm

#70 SCM on 10.17.17 at 7:30 pm
#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.17 at 7:25 pm

Wrong as always cef. It’s because Quebec has a state-owned utility run by the government that acts in the interests of the people, not shareholder leeches. A Quebecois politician running on a platform of privatizing Hydro-Quebec would be laughed out of the room and hopefully tar-and-feathered. Shame we didn’t do the same to Mike Harris. Nothing common sense about breaking up a perfectly good utility like Ontario Hydro.

——

Stop lamenting the past. The past is dead. Consider the present and the future. My dividends demand it of you. Consume, troll. Consume. Be useful. My dividends are hungry. All us investors dividends demand it. Satisfy them! Please. LOL

#83 Danny on 10.17.17 at 8:02 pm

Garth thanks for reminding us of the many Political connections to the Real Estate Cartel….”Ontario Real Estate Association head, and ex-politico Tim Hudak is ticked”
If Hudak wants to complain and tell banks how to take on more risky mortgage debt….why does he not personally give out mortgages to those who will very likely not pay back the money borrowed.
Like an expired mouthy politician with no scruples….he surely is not going to put his money where his mouthful is and invest in very doubtful loans.

The Banks have reviewed their mortgage debt in total….are surely worried the risk is deep and have been waiting for these moments of new regulations ….and are happy to agree with these new conditions…which we all know they have quietly participated in…..in the back rooms of decision making.

The real estate Cartel just wants their unworthy cut from house sales…then run and hide when the going gets tough for buyers who are just too ignorant to see they are being ripped off …especially these days.

#84 Kay on 10.17.17 at 8:04 pm

Was just getting frustrated renting and started looking again in Ottawa. A lot of this info is TO and Vancouver based. What about us? Totally confused as to what this might do in my happening part of Canada where prices are going up and everyone seems to feel sorry for us that we didn’t buy years ago. We couldn’t then, be we can now. No sense though, if we should wait…

#85 Smartalox on 10.17.17 at 8:06 pm

Seriously. If the OSFI Plus-2 Stress Test is going to choke credit and turn a $725,000 house into one worth $570,000 later, why would you rush out to qualify so you can pay $155,000 too much? Just wait, have less debt, pay it off faster and laugh at your cousin who bought in April of 2017 and tried to shame you.

I pity anyone who just signed an offer to purchase, has a deal pending, or is scheduled to close before January 1st.

You’ve already paid too much!

Now the question lingers: will I do better if I back out of the deal right now, lose my deposit, settle the lawsuit, and maybe buy something at a lower price in the new year? Or should I just close – and hope that real estate keeps going up, so that I don’t spend the next 20 or 25 years paying 20% more than I should have?

#86 Saint Herb on 10.17.17 at 8:08 pm

Any chance the banks will start using these new rules right away. Wouldn’t they be worried about lending to much to buy an overpriced house, knowing it will probably go down in value and the new owner might end up underwater.

I can see them unofficially applying the new stress test tomorrow.

#87 I thinks I now something on 10.17.17 at 8:08 pm

“The bank cop (OSFI) – as predicted – yesterday lowered the hammer on the residential market with new rules soon to take effect and virtually guaranteed to dry sales and lower prices.” – Garth

——————————————————-

No way, Garth. What they take away with one hand, they’ll give back with another. If RE values really do take a big hit, they’ll back-peddle, or introduce some other buyer incentive program. Maybe they really don’t want RE prices escalating wildly from the current lofty levels, but they really don’t want them to crater either. At least not on their watch.

Where did I say ‘crater’? — Garth

#88 Smartalox on 10.17.17 at 8:09 pm

Hudak’s earning his pay at OREA:

Clearly he bought a bunch of ‘fill in the blank’ speeches back when he was the Ontario PC leader, and he’s recycling them in his new job.

For example:

“I’m mad as (blank) about (insert government proposal here). This can only hurt the middle class taxpayer!”

#89 For those about to flop... on 10.17.17 at 8:09 pm

SCM 47 pm
#74 For those about to flop… on 10.17.17 at 7:37 pm

Hey buddy just wanted to say I’m a big fan of your posts and research. I don’t think you’re told that enough.

////////////////////

I’m glad you had the chance to tell me that before your next banning!

There are some cool people on here, some idiots and lots of lurkers.

Everyone else is giving you advice about life ,but I will just offer some advice on extending your stay on here.

Find the group of people you are interested in swapping information and ideas with and concentrate on them and block the rest out if you want your time on here to be rewarding, or you can just continue to troll people and be a ratings whore.

My only other piece of advice is to remember to put the jerk sauce on the chicken,not on your iPhone…

M43BC

#90 For those about to flop... on 10.17.17 at 8:17 pm

This one is American centred ,but if as many people on this blog bail like they say they are then it could help someone out on here…

M43BC

“Stash more Cash: A Map of the Best Cities for Families to Save Money

It’s no secret that Americans need to save more money. This is especially important for families because families have bigger expenses, and more of them. If your family is struggling to save money, you may live in the wrong place.

New data suggests that location is a key factor for dictating how much money a family can save each year. That means where you live could determine whether your kid graduates high school with pocket change or a college fund. The map below shows where families have the most leftover money each year.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/where-can-families-save-the-most-money

#91 MSM-Free Zone on 10.17.17 at 8:19 pm

“…Guess you’ll have to come back here tomorrow. Bring an old sweater or tinned food for Mr. Morneau. Please be generous…” – Garth
_________________________________

Last federal election, I held my nose and voted to evict a bunch of right-wing, arrogant, anti-democratic, mean-spirited, power-hungry hypocrites, only to see them replaced by a bunch of left-wing, arrogant, anti-democratic, mean-spirited, power-hungry hypocrites.

I’m getting to old to witness any more rinse & repeat on Parliament Hill.

#92 SCM on 10.17.17 at 8:23 pm

#89 For those about to flop… on 10.17.17 at 8:09 pm
I’m glad you had the chance to tell me that before your next banning!

——————-

Lol. Garth always bans me when I argue a little TOO well. He doesn’t like me beating up on the boomers.

I banned you for being ageist, which is as unacceptable as being sexist or racist. You can make valid points without being demeaning, vulgar or extreme. Age will teach you that, ironically. — Garth

#93 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 8:27 pm

SCM on 10.17.17 at 7:16 pm
#29 Spock on 10.17.17 at 6:20 pm
Read and weep SCM:

http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/75000-manufacturing-jobs-lost-thats-the-price-of-ontarios-electricity-disaster

My god you’re obsessed with me.

Yeah Mike Harris’ quasi-privatization and breakup of Ontario Hydro has been a total and complete disaster. No doubt about it. Conservative policies are disastrous.

Meanwhile, Quebec has the lowest electricity rates in North America. You know why? Hydro-Quebec is owned by the province. That’s right a state-owned public utility. Madness! Those damn socialists!!!!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydro-Quebec

Shall I remind you of the $1 TRILLION in the bank that those pinko socialists have in Norway?

———

You really are clueless, eh? Mike Harris is not even the Premier of Ontario… that would be Kathleen Wynne. An amazing woman, I’m sure, but utterly clueless on economic issues.

#94 Lost...but not Leased on 10.17.17 at 8:34 pm

Methinks OSFI is simply dangling the t*rd over the punchbowl, ( or perhaps even mooching/trolling !?! )

We are not Canada in the 1980’s…aka RE market got out of hand, mostly internal factors ( as opposed to international ),…. the BoC/Feds nuked the market with 20%+ interest rates….and Justin Turdeaus alleged father “Peter” instead focussed on nuking the BNA Act via repatriating the Constitution ( which effectively deferred/delegated our previous representative governance model to the Supreme Court).

That stated…it’s much different now….the variable are not herded into a domestic corral…the ?????variables are spread globally.

aka there are a plethora of examples of how international criminal networks have infiltrated Canada,
and catalyzed the often brain dead (irrational exhuberance) Real Estate Market.

Hence, to head off civil war….the local banksters( Mafia of 6) somehow concurrently offered credit unheard of since the Great Depression (cue ominous music ) to the local plebs….yada yada yada…and mask the foreign infiltration.

“All wars are banker wars”

Again, point is, we have too many variables in an open(aka non- closed) economic system that the OSFI and any/all affiliated regulatory bodies moves will be tentative and exploratory at best.

#95 Bob on 10.17.17 at 8:38 pm

So then, is Morneau toast?

#96 Protea on 10.17.17 at 8:38 pm

#41 Nancy Vieira great post so refreshing to get an honest opinion from a Realtor.

As we sold out our 2 properties over 2 yrs ago happily renting in East Vancouver .I keep telling my wife that the buying opportunities will present themselves in late 2018 and later exactly echoing your sentiments. Many of our friends probaly thought of me as a raving idiot when I try to justify why I am renting. I have learn’t much from this blog and comment section ! one tends to read and recognise the comments that provide sensible and rational comments and ignore the bizarre rants.

I hope not too many young people will suffer financial hardship as a result of this insane market with the exception of flippers, speculators and others not worth spelling out. At the end of today it is a good blog story. Thx Garth I hope you sleep well tonite.

#97 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 8:39 pm

“Shall I remind you of the $1 TRILLION in the bank that those pinko socialists have in Norway?”

——–

Ummm, no. Norway isn’t a socialist utopia, contrary to what people will have you believe.

SCM, read this for more info, though I doubt that you will:

https://fee.org/articles/the-myth-of-scandinavian-socialism/

#98 Bob on 10.17.17 at 8:41 pm

Outside the YYZ and YVR regions what do you think will happen to real estate values in the hinterland (eg ROC)?

The regulation is nation-wide. So will be the consequences. — Garth

#99 Pete on 10.17.17 at 8:42 pm

It seem most of us here can’t stand Tim Hudak and the BS he spews. I guess that’s what politicians do best. Tim Hudak , Patrick Brown and that witch in office are all horrible . When we vote we vote for who will pound us the least or at bare minimum provide lube. I voted for Mike Harras( biggest CON scum ever next to Harper) Voted for that witch in office. Voted for T2. I can’t pick a winner or there are no winners to pick? Chretien ,Paul Martin and Garth Turner the only good guys?

#100 millmech on 10.17.17 at 8:43 pm

#77
I think the fallout will be not for the homeowner but for the economy as most people I know have been using their house as an ATM. Now that ATM balance may just be clawed back 20% so that is less money for renovations, trips, cars, new appliances etc.
It will probably take a year but it will be felt in the economy.
Footnote, looked at a house where I wanted to retire to, out of curiosity, talked to realtor on the 7th about price, said client was firm on price of $405,000, got a call today said client is willing to take $364,900,I am betting it goes down to $300,000!

#101 Guy Fawkes on 10.17.17 at 8:44 pm

@64 Fartz
That’s part of the reason. Not bad! I’m impressed.

#102 Bob on 10.17.17 at 8:47 pm

The regulation is nation wide. So will be the consequences. –Garth
________________________________________________________
Guess I’ll wait a little before getting serious about looking into the South Shore (Nova Scotia)……

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.17 at 8:49 pm

@#70 SCM
“Wrong as always cef. It’s because Quebec has a state-owned utility run by the government that acts in the interests of the people, not shareholder leeches.”
++++++

Wow.
I think the voters in Newfoundland would disagree with you.
Amazing.
Ignore facts and insult.
Thats quite a debating skill.

One wonders how that will work out for you in the future………..in Europe……when you emigrate .

To become one of those loathed immigrants you constantly harp about?

#104 For those about to flop... on 10.17.17 at 8:50 pm

Some people asking what is happening in Vancouver,as usual I will sep up to the plate and have swing.

I live a short walk away from 5696 Chester St.( the second one)

It went on the market for 1.5m

Waited a month before lowering it by 100k to 1.4m

Sold on October 11th for 1.35 despite being one of the cheapest options for a Vancouver detached.

If you look at the sales history the last six months or so you will see houses were going over ask during the Spring Fling but for the last few months it has been at or below ask and some of them were already reduced like the one on Chester and the one on 37th Ave was painful to watch.

O.k that is enough truth in one post ,I don’t want to use it all up…

M43BC

http://normflockhart.com/listings/sales.aspx

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.17 at 8:51 pm

@#97 Blessed Canadian Millenial
“SCM, read this for more info….”
+++++++

Wasting your time.
Fantasy not facts

#106 Trumpocalypse2017 on 10.17.17 at 8:55 pm

NUCLEAR WAR AT ANY MOMENT!

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2017-10-17/north-korean-diplomat-to-un-warns-of-nuclear-war-at-any-moment

Prepare.

Prepare.

Prepare.

Your time is running out……

#107 paul on 10.17.17 at 8:56 pm

#87 I thinks I now something on 10.17.17 at 8:08 pm

“The bank cop (OSFI) – as predicted – yesterday lowered the hammer on the residential market with new rules soon to take effect and virtually guaranteed to dry sales and lower prices.” – Garth

——————————————————-

No way, Garth. What they take away with one hand, they’ll give back with another. If RE values really do take a big hit, they’ll back-peddle, or introduce some other buyer incentive program. Maybe they really don’t want RE prices escalating wildly from the current lofty levels, but they really don’t want them to crater either. At least not on their watch.

Where did I say ‘crater’? — Garth
—————————————————————–
I will say it “CRATER” There are houses that sold in the spring that are listed now 15% less and dropping.
The buyers are underwater with cmhc fees, legals, commission and mortgage discharge cost. Speak with them crater is to mild more like a cliff.

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.17 at 8:57 pm

@#101 Guy Fawkes

Yep. The truth hurts people like SCM that insist that Quebec Hydro is “well run”.

Newsflash SCM.
If Quebec ever seperates Newfoundland gets to tear up the money losing agreement they so foolishly signed with Quebec in 1969.
The reason they can?
The signed the power sharing deal with a Province of Canada……not a foreign country…..
We’ll see how profitable Hydro Quebec is when they have to pay full market rates for their Newfoundland generated power that they immediately resell to the States for huge profit…..

But then again.
Why let the actual facts get in the way of a good hissy fit eh SCM?

#109 Fish on 10.17.17 at 9:00 pm

The lab is ready for the Duck!

#110 Long Branch Apprentice on 10.17.17 at 9:01 pm

SCM,

Have you not heard of the Green Energy Act? You’re not comparing apples to apples, as usual. There’s a lot more to energy pricing than private vs public. Source of power, hydro vs nuclear vs solar/wind, has a huge impact.

#111 Victor V on 10.17.17 at 9:01 pm

For those interested, here is Hudak’s full statement:

https://www.orea.com/News-and-Events/News-and-Press-Releases/Press-Releases/October-17-2017

#112 Tony on 10.17.17 at 9:05 pm

Re: #19 Toronto is for winners, not WHINERS! on 10.17.17 at 6:09 pm

Toronto is a hellhole, very few people would actually want to live there if they didn’t need a job. I put Monte Carlo at the top of the list and Toronto near the very bottom.

#113 Bob on 10.17.17 at 9:06 pm

So if peak house turns into slow melt over the next 5-7 years does this mean our Market Value Assessments in Ontario will go down accordingly?

One would think so….

#114 april on 10.17.17 at 9:06 pm

#77- how can you know you’ll stay in one home for many yrs? Things happen to cause people to have to move and you may need to sell in a down market…thus possibly loosing equity.

#115 april on 10.17.17 at 9:18 pm

#19 – your so transparent.

#116 Stone on 10.17.17 at 9:18 pm

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.17 at 8:57 pm
@#101 Guy Fawkes

Yep. The truth hurts people like SCM that insist that Quebec Hydro is “well run”.

Newsflash SCM.
If Quebec ever seperates Newfoundland gets to tear up the money losing agreement they so foolishly signed with Quebec in 1969.
The reason they can?
The signed the power sharing deal with a Province of Canada……not a foreign country…..
We’ll see how profitable Hydro Quebec is when they have to pay full market rates for their Newfoundland generated power that they immediately resell to the States for huge profit…..

But then again.
Why let the actual facts get in the way of a good hissy fit eh SCM?

—–

Crowdedelevatorfartz, if you continue, SCM will be in the fetal position sucking his thumb. He’s very sensitive and delicate. LOL

On a serious note, if he’s in the fetal position sucking his thumb, how’s he going to be a proper consumer and feed our dividends? Business before pleasure! My dividends are very hungry.

#117 Al on 10.17.17 at 9:26 pm

What s the point of a blind trust for Bills 47 million? He still owns them and can still make gov decisions/policy that raise his share price.

#118 Lost...but not Leased on 10.17.17 at 9:28 pm

RE: Quality Control and Elected Representatives…

Tough Call/Cull?

Seem to recall in past far more honour amongst (democracy) thieves…

At least here in Booty-full B.C…..whereby at the Provincial Level if a cabinet minister had an underling bureaucrat make a bad move..the Minister stepped down (aka it happened under MY watch).

Since the B.C. NDP Gov’t of the 1990’s.(Hey hey Hey Glen Cl*rk.)….the leftie loonies were able to shift the accountability legislation to employer/employee culpability….aka if in Gov’t…and screw up….the DEEP POCKETED taxpayer foots the legal bill.

It appears that there is ZERO/NADA/”FORK ALL”honour amongst thieves…ie MornEAUS French villa is but a minor error…the worst that may happen is demotion…when perhaps..given his current position and peripheral impact..CRIMINAL CHARGES should be pursued…..thus the sanitizing action of full exposure, in contrast to the less- than- veiled attack of Liberal defined small business tax cheats?

…..aka if we do not hold these Elected Representatives to a MUCH H-I-G-H-E-R standard …..and the proportional consequences,we waste our time in what ultimately becomes a crap shoot of democracy and accountability.

#119 BernieBee on 10.17.17 at 9:34 pm

#77 MD

People move all the time. Because they have to. Divorce, death, job loss, better job, (new) kids,etc. If the sale price no longer covers the mortgage, You have to write a check to the bank. With the silly prices in Vancouver and Toronto, that could end up being a whopper. Who has that kind of money in the bank?

#120 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 9:41 pm

#97 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 8:39 pm
“Shall I remind you of the $1 TRILLION in the bank that those pinko socialists have in Norway?”

——–

Ummm, no. Norway isn’t a socialist utopia, contrary to what people will have you believe.

SCM, read this for more info, though I doubt that you will:

https://fee.org/articles/the-myth-of-scandinavian-socialism/

——————————————-

I notice that you can never actually address what I said. All you do is strawman and debate things I never said.

I never said Norway is a utopia. I said they have a sovereign wealth fund with $1 TRILLION in it. For 5 million people.

Smarten up.

You’re an embarrassment to Screwed Canadian Millenials.

#121 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 9:44 pm

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.17 at 8:57 pm

What in the world are you on about. The vast majority of the electricity that Quebec generates, is generated in Quebec. Lol you think their whole operation is so successful because of 1 dam in NFLD? Do you have any idea how many hydroelectric installations they have in Quebec? Give it a rest, you sound unhinged. What are you a Newfie?

Newfoundland is the Greece of Canada. I’d give them back to the UK prontissimo. Make me King for a day, I’d have this country sorted out in no time.

#122 Where's The Money Guido? on 10.17.17 at 9:44 pm

Re: #99 Pete on 10.17.17 at 8:42 pm
….. I voted for Mike Harras( biggest CON scum ever next to Harper) Voted for that witch in office. Voted for T2. I can’t pick a winner or there are no winners to pick? Chretien ,Paul Martin and Garth Turner the only good guys?

You’ve got to be kidding me, the only one that’s a winner is Garth!

Chretien and Martin are underlings of the Paul Desmarais-Power Financial mafia that runs Canada.
Chretien is related by blood-his daughter married Paul’s son Andre.
Martin got his big shot from Paul Desmarais Sr. working at Power FInancial, then ended up buying Canadian Steamship Lines in 1981 in a supposedly sweatheart deal. Remember Martin’s ship flying foreign flags that was found with $83 Milllion in cocaine in 2004. http://www.orwelltoday.com/cocainecanadapm.shtml

The only reason Canada didn’t go into the Iraq war was Paul Sr. had $5 billion in contracts in Iraq at the time.
Martin Strong, yes the one who dreamed up the farce that is carbon taxes back in the 70’s was at Power Corp.
http://chinawatchcanada.blogspot.ca/2014/03/paul-desmarais-web-of-influence-over.html
The Desmarais family has it’s hands all over Canadian politicians.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Desmarais
Read it and weep Canada, we’re bought and paid for.

#123 Old Joe on 10.17.17 at 9:47 pm

Nope, the Vancouver market is impervious to those silly new regulations. In Vancouver, none of the mortgage regulations, nor foreigner taxes, nor meager interest rate increases, have had any effect on prices. On the contrary, condos are skyrocketing, and houses are still multimillion dollar shacks. There is no slowdown here, no dip, no worried moisters. Buildings keep going up, shadow bankers lend money to locals, and foreigners keep scooping up presales. People are still camping outside presales (albeit knowing they’re getting ripped off), radio stations and TV keep pumping the capital direct and alpine credits (Approved!) commercials. Needless to say, the local government, the one that cares so much about the middle class, makes so much money on property taxes and transaction fees that it’s not in their best interest to bring sense to this madness.

Perhaps other smaller cities have plateaued, probably even declined, but in Vancouver the last thing happening is any sort of correction. That’s reality, and anyone living in the lower mainland lives it on a daily basis.

“Council approves motion to give Vancouver locals first shot at presale homes”
http://www.news1130.com/2017/10/17/mayor-expands-motion-locals-first-shot-presale/

Yeah, a motion to let locals buy first.
No, the game is not changing here in Vancouver.

#124 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 9:50 pm

Here’s map of Hydro-Quebec’s major facilities.

http://www.hydroquebec.com/about/our-energy/hydropower/pdf/map-major-facilities.pdf

No offense crowdelevatorfartz, but you might be legitimately insane.

#125 Smoking Man on 10.17.17 at 9:51 pm

Everyone has a screen play on their head.

#126 the ryguy on 10.17.17 at 9:51 pm

#77 Md on 10.17.17 at 7:44 pm
I mean, if I buy a place and intend to stay there and raise a family and live my life…what do I care if the price goes up a hundred thousand or down a hundred thousand?

——————————————————————

Dude, have you been the reading this blog?

In theory you are correct if:

– you dont plan on flipping it
– you and yours can actually afford it and all the associated costs
– you haven’t and dont plan on tapping into your HELOC
– you have a big enough down payment that the 100k drop in price doesn’t mean the bank comes and asks for a top up.

IF you fit all the above criteria, then yes you should be just fine. I would argue though that you are in the vast minority in this ridiculous country.

Those that own multiple properties, those that planned to flip, tapped into their HELOC, bought at the limits of their spending power, anyone that loses a job, these changes will have huge effects on. Again, I would argue this is the majority of home owners.

#127 Fiendish Thingy on 10.17.17 at 9:55 pm

Second, be real careful about the 905 and the Lower Mainland (including Victoria). House lust slopping over from 416 and urban YVR drove prices in the hinterland to the moon in a totally unsustainable fashion, and big declines lie ahead. After all, the burbs are not the city. There will always be less demand, more new housing stock and all the crap hassles of commuting.

with 100’s of townhomes planned along 240th, Maple Ridge (and Mission ) are going down!!!

Wheeee!!!!

#128 Samuel on 10.17.17 at 9:55 pm

The $725 House buyer will become a $570 Townhouse buyer before the $725 House seller become a $570 House seller.

#129 People are strange on 10.17.17 at 9:56 pm

What credentials did Tim Hudak have to get this latest job? There’s a reason we ran him out of town as PC leader. Now he’s trying to do a job he knows nothing about..again. Go away Tim!!!!

#130 Ponnaps on 10.17.17 at 9:57 pm

Hi Garth,

What are your thoughts on selling your home and renting it back for a couple of years(assuming one would find such a buyer)?

Moneywise it’s very compelling, a neat profit to be made while riding out the upcoming slow melt..

What, though, are the traps and consequences to be aware of in such a deal.

Appreciate it,
P

#131 Karl M on 10.17.17 at 9:58 pm

)))) In short, could be epic.

Yes, or another ‘swing-and-a-miss’. I’ve lost track of how many of these there have been over the last ten years.

#132 Doghouse Dweller on 10.17.17 at 9:58 pm

Talk about a manipulated market gone stark raving mad . Poloz can`t raise rates without causing a Debt Slave Apocalypse , so the bank cop (OSFI) is going to pretend rates are 5% for borrowers while the banks give savers zip.
Won`t this just boost up shadow banking and an eruption of Bay Street mortgage ETFs , ETNs, CEFs and a lot more Meridian/Vancity customers ?

#133 Where's The Money Guido? on 10.17.17 at 10:02 pm

Old story but so relevant today, especially in BC:
http://bobmackin.ca/?p=3440

Authorities failing to protect Canada from corporate, real estate corruption: Transparency International

#134 Asterix1 on 10.17.17 at 10:20 pm

#19 Toronto is for winners, not WHINERS! on 10.17.17 at 6:09 pm
______________________________________________

These posts “Canadian-born women in Toronto are resilient” (same person, different name used) keep getting stranger and stranger!

Sure sounds like a real estate agent who got in the business 1 or 2 (max) years ago.

#135 Alex S on 10.17.17 at 10:23 pm

Victor V

While Realtors support a sensibly regulated real estate market, OSFI’s new stress test for uninsured mortgages is overkill.

$780k for 600 sq. ft is not an overkill?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bz_leWgLgdhuazlHbkUyVEROcDA/view

#136 Alex S on 10.17.17 at 10:25 pm

Garth, have you considered changing your WordPress theme to mobile friendly one?

#137 Smoking Man on 10.17.17 at 10:27 pm

DELETED

#138 How did we not see? on 10.17.17 at 10:28 pm

It was there, all along, waiting for its discovery- in plain sight…..

Morneau = Mourn, Owe

#139 Canada=Poor cousin of U.S on 10.17.17 at 10:32 pm

I am simply blown away by the FACTS that in a country where the sales taxes are twice than U.S, incomes are almost half of U.S (check out the white collar job salaries and factor in the exchange rate) , cost of goods almost double of U.S (just accept it instead of arguing), Mortgages are not deductible and the loonie people are willing to buy pathetic shoebox style houses for 1 Mil +. Just mind blowing!! People down south won’t even have a second look at what ya’ll kill each other to buy. UNBELIEVABLE!!!

#140 Lost....but not Leased on 10.17.17 at 10:34 pm

Much surprised…under auspices of “Great minds Tinker Ali-like” that my UNconscripted wannabee disciple “CongestedElevationPhartz ” did not more closely scrutinize the current blog photo…and report back to the mothership.

aka that tax dodging Black Lab canine(redundant) seems to have a ChemTrail emanating from the business end of the alimentary canal…haven’t GPS’s coordinates re: the locale…… BUTT given the ???*&%# $$???design of the abode likely McCain/Irving land…aka Maritimes

#141 Smoking Man on 10.17.17 at 10:40 pm

DELETED

#142 mathman on 10.17.17 at 10:52 pm

Garth is spot on with this one. Our housing market is based on nothing more than access to capital. Once that access changes materially prices will have to drop to meet buyers ability to obtain financing. People grossly underestimate how many people out there are up to their eyeballs in debt. A significant drop will put a lot of said people underwater, then the forced selling begins.

Milton, Barrie, Brampton, Ajax, Whibty will be ground zero for financial ruin.

A wise man once told me there are two types of people in this world, those who have money and those that pretend they do. The ratio is probably 1:4. That was many years ago and it is probably like 1:9 in 2017, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver where everyone is a Millionaire, clearly.

Want to try something fun dogs? Go to Winnipeg and find the most successful person you can and ask them if they could afford to live in YYZ/YVR. Terrible weather, smart people.

Math

#143 Smoking Man on 10.17.17 at 10:55 pm

Garth you globalist peep show enabler.

Stop deleting me you prick. I’m trying to save the world

#144 mathman on 10.17.17 at 10:56 pm

The tide will go out next spring, and it will be very interesting to see.

We have had an eight year debt binge of epic proportions that is coming to an end, the ATM (house) is going to be out of service and it will be very nasty.

#145 Oh oh on 10.17.17 at 10:58 pm

My brother listed his east Vancouver house last week open on Sunday one offer below asking with subjects was supposed to remove tomorrow just got the call at supper tonight saying buyers are walking. Today’s announcement coincidence?

#146 mathman on 10.17.17 at 11:00 pm

RE #139 – Spot on.

Most are too busy with important things like selecting the perfect selfie to add to their instagram, or slapping the latest vacation on their credit card so they can share some great (but highly leveraged) pictures and stories about their trip on FB – to take the time to do simple relative comparison to our neighbours to the south.

Math

#147 How did we not see? on 10.17.17 at 11:04 pm

Begging to be brought into the light- as if it writes itself…

Morneau & Trudeau
Mourn, Owe & True Dough

#148 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.17.17 at 11:18 pm

#124 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 9:50 pm
Here’s map of Hydro-Quebec’s major facilities.

http://www.hydroquebec.com/about/our-energy/hydropower/pdf/map-major-facilities.pdf

No offense crowdelevatorfartz, but you might be legitimately insane.
————–
I gotta give it to the kid.
Kid:1 Fartz:0

#149 Doug on 10.17.17 at 11:23 pm

Of coarse Minister Nomeaur will be going to New Brunswick. It’s all about damage control. And once the Minister is done there, he’s likely gone for good from his finance job developing policy that’s unfair for the middle class. Just a matter of when. Totally hung out to dry by his boss. Or thrown under a bus. Just pick one.

#150 Capt. Serious on 10.17.17 at 11:36 pm

People are stupid. They are so stupid, they will think the “government” made their house prices go down by increasing the cost of “everything” with government regulation changes. I concluded this from a detailed study of the CBC comments on the OSFI story. In general people do not know what the OSFI is or does. They’ll just blame their elected officials. Typical.

#151 Scott on 10.17.17 at 11:39 pm

Will the B20 affect BCs 1st home buyers program? Isn’t it effectively a bundled loan to allow 1st’mers to meet the 5% down requirement?

Also, does the Jan 1 start date mean stress testing is mandatory as of Jan 1, or could some monkey secure a rate Dec 31 and buy into March without the ST?

#152 Pete from St. Cesaire on 10.17.17 at 11:40 pm

If Quebec ever seperates Newfoundland gets to tear up the money losing agreement they so foolishly signed with Quebec in 1969. The reason they can? The signed the power sharing deal with a Province of Canada……not a foreign country…..
—————————————————–
Firstly, if that is so, that means we will be able to SIMPLY walk away from that which is considered ‘our share’ of the national debt. And walk away we will.
Secondly, I guess you don’t realize that the vast majority of the teritory which is presently considered to be part of Labrador is actually Quebec’s territory anyway. Labrador (the golden arm) is only the territory extending inland 100 miles from the ocean, not the vast expanse that was stolen from Quebec including Churchill Falls / Labrador city, etc. Check out an old map and you will see.
Thirdly, Chruchill Falls is only a portion of the total power generated by Hydro-Quebec. The Manic dams 1-5 and the ‘la Grande’ dams dwarf Churchill Falls.

#153 Lost....but not Leased on 10.17.17 at 11:41 pm

Memo to Garth:

Topic: Wills/Estates(aka Death and Taxes)
..perhaps the next biggest revenue grab…PROBATE FEES…simply a tax grab in the Robin Hood mode.

Seems to be a fair bit of discrepancy between Provinces…most notably Quebec which appears to have THE lowest Death Tax..err “Probate fees” in Canada……..(ie approx. $100 worst case scenario regardless of estates value or cost= $ ZERO designation via wills through notaries and lawyers…the NEXT closest are Nunavut or NWT…which have flat fees to certain estate values…whereas other provinces have a pro-rata amounts of $X /$100,000 of estate value.

Point is…many of us are aware of the immigration $$$$cam whereby Quebec takes in Immigrants and their Cash, …..pays them back several years later….. while these immigrants disperse and settle in OTHER provinces who shoulder the ultimate costs.

Seems Quebec has this rather unique position that when it is subjected to scrutiny(aka almost 25% of Canadians live there)…it is a” have- not “province???? by inherent perpetual design……it acts as an entry- level “safe injection point” for immigrants …..and/or games the system for those who chose to stay.

This scammy scenario results in transfer payments from other CONfederation members and all the collateral impacts.

PS…advise others to check out this topic and ” Legal Means” to avoid this Probate Fee rip-off before Turdeau and Moroneau find out..

#154 Cloudy on 10.17.17 at 11:58 pm

I saw an interview with the OSFI guy on a business news channel that shall remained nameless. He seems like a good dude. He was asked by one of the hosts if there is a sharp correction will the rules be rescinded and his answer was essentially that prudent measures are needed when values are rising and they’re needed when values are falling. Good on him.

#155 Catalyst on 10.18.17 at 12:08 am

This is the catalyst that will be the straw that broke the camels back. I didn’t understand why the rush to do this now – why not wait 6 months to see the full effect of all the other recent changes – but after watching the superintendent of OFSI on BNN today; I realized what a super weanie he is and does not give an F about impacts this has on borrowers, banks, or just about anyone. As garth says – this will not end well…

#156 Duke on 10.18.17 at 12:37 am

#32 Long gone on 10.17.17 at 6:25 pm
That Tim Hudak quote: “These changes will hurt middle class families and punish careful savers the most, forcing them to take on more debt and higher interest payments”

Forcing who to take on more debt? This forces people to take on LESS DEBT. That is the whole point. What on earth is he talking about?

It’s the last 15+ years of CMHC being run for the benefit of the real estate industry that has forced people to take on more debt.

I’m so sick of these whiners, especially when they brazenly lie.

—————

Exactly!!! RE scums are desperate and scared.

#157 Greater Wise on 10.18.17 at 12:42 am

#19: Spoken like a true aristocrat.
So you would rather tear down homeless shelters & have police round up the displaced so that corrupt foreign money launderers and urban professionals like yourself can Livin La Vida Loca! in your luxury 90 storey condo?

#158 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.18.17 at 12:43 am

#152 Pete from St. Cesaire on 10.17.17 at 11:40 pm
If Quebec ever seperates Newfoundland gets to tear up the money losing agreement they so foolishly signed with Quebec in 1969. The reason they can? The signed the power sharing deal with a Province of Canada……not a foreign country…..
—————————————————–
Firstly, if that is so, that means we will be able to SIMPLY walk away from that which is considered ‘our share’ of the national debt. And walk away we will.
Secondly, I guess you don’t realize that the vast majority of the teritory which is presently considered to be part of Labrador is actually Quebec’s territory anyway. Labrador (the golden arm) is only the territory extending inland 100 miles from the ocean, not the vast expanse that was stolen from Quebec including Churchill Falls / Labrador city, etc. Check out an old map and you will see.
Thirdly, Chruchill Falls is only a portion of the total power generated by Hydro-Quebec. The Manic dams 1-5 and the ‘la Grande’ dams dwarf Churchill Falls.
…………………………….
You are the one who should check out an old map monsieur. Quebec was only one third of its present size when it was a French colony mon ami. You will owe Canada more then “your share” of the national debt you moron.

#159 8 Years of Failed Measures on 10.18.17 at 12:57 am

Once again, the impact of the OSFI is being heralded as a ‘market killer’ on this blog, much like every other federal measure implemented over the past 8 years.

Remember the moister killing stress test for insured mortgages last year that was going to wipe out 15-20% of buyers and see a corresponding drop in prices? How did that work out? Right, prices went through the roof with double digit increases in places like Vancouver, Victoria and TO…

Go back on this blog and review the joy each time the feds brought out a change that was going to be a market changer. Remember the elimination of the 40 year 0 down mortgage; the changes to the amount you could withdraw on your equity for purchasing other properties; the new down payment increases last year, to name but a few. And each time these measures were implemented prices went up.

I hate to burst everyone’s bubble but the main banks have already been using the new stress tests for a while in anticipation of the ‘changes.’ Some deals have fallen through as bank appraisals accompanying the new tests have not given the potential buyers what they wanted. Scotiabank in particular has already been doing this and the good realtors (oxymoron, I know) will tell you this.

And yet prices are super sticky and not going anywhere in most of the overheated markets.

Don’t worry, in about six months time, a new ‘market changing’ measure will be announced, all to keep the hope up of a crash.

#160 DON on 10.18.17 at 1:19 am

SCM

Take about 25% off.

I was once a pit bull much like you. I loved ripping into people and the boomers were once a target, till I realized idiots transcend all the generations. Just because you can push a person’s buttons doesn’t mean you should. Garth was right aging should put things into perspective. You think you know it all now, but it gets more insightful with experience and age.

Influence is more powerful than confrontation. Simply state your point in a respectful manner and be prepared to follow up with fact. (Consider the source though).

Garth is treating you with kids gloves at this point – you can add something to this blog by making the entrenched re-evaluate their thoughts (me as well – always good to recalibrate). Just try to shed the attack dog mentality.

Anything else is considered poor form on this blog.

#161 DON on 10.18.17 at 1:30 am

B20 – is said and done.

Can we now talk about the job losses as of late, usually that means bad things are on the horizon.

And FFS – once and for all, fixed mortgage rates are set in the bond market not by the Bank of Canadbroke. US is doing better than Canada and trade wars are the subject in the news.

Yep all looks just peachy.

#162 Rent or Own? on 10.18.17 at 1:40 am

I took a quick look at the impact on affordability that the new stress test will have if you were purchasing three different properties in Vancouver. For a condo in Kits, it means you will need a family income over $15,000 higher than now.

http://rentorown.ca/2017/10/18/can-afford-new-osfi-stress-test/

#163 Karma on 10.18.17 at 1:55 am

OSFI rules:

http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/fi-if/rg-ro/gdn-ort/gl-ld/Pages/b20_dft.aspx

#164 the ryguy on 10.18.17 at 2:17 am

#143 Smoking Man on 10.17.17 at 10:55 pm
Garth you globalist peep show enabler.

Stop deleting me you prick. I’m trying to save the world
——————————————————————

I cant be the only one that legit belly laughed at this, god I love this blog.

#165 Dolce Vita on 10.18.17 at 2:19 am

It’s not only the maximum mortgage amount that will affect RE markets in Canada Garth.

The other effect will be from fewer qualified buyers.

Before the Oct. 2016 insured stress test, home buyers sought other sources for downpayment such as MFCs. After that stress test:

“43 per cent of high-ratio insured mortgages originated by
MFCs over the period from the fourth quarter of 2015 to
the third quarter of 2016 would not have qualified under the
new rules, compared with 27 per cent of mortgages originated
by traditional lenders.” (Src: BoC)

AND 50% of new mortgage originations are clustered near the conventional LTV limit of 80%. (Src: BoC) =

MUCH FEWER qualified buyers.

Fewer buyers will exacerbate RE prices. The one thing Economists did get correct, basically a no-brainer to start with, when Demand decreases (fewer buyers) and Supply remains unchanged:

Price decreases (well, except for YVR).

#166 morrey on 10.18.17 at 2:20 am

have this date marked in my calendar. In march we will see where RE in YVR is at.

#167 Karma on 10.18.17 at 2:36 am

#70 SCM on 10.17.17 at 7:30 pm
“#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.17 at 7:25 pm

Wrong as always cef. It’s because Quebec has a state-owned utility run by the government that acts in the interests of the people, not shareholder leeches. A Quebecois politician running on a platform of privatizing Hydro-Quebec would be laughed out of the room and hopefully tar-and-feathered. Shame we didn’t do the same to Mike Harris. Nothing common sense about breaking up a perfectly good utility like Ontario Hydro.”

Well, Quebec’s hydro is cheap because of geography very suitable to hydro-dams. Ontario is less geographically amenable to hydro-dams, and hence requires nuclear power and other forms. Quebec gets >90% of their electricity via hydro-dams (hence the name), as does BC. Ontario, if I recall correctly, is only at about 25% hydro-dam supplied electricity.

Furthermore, OPG is still owned by the government, as is Hydro One (majority) and the majority of local distribution networks. So I’m not sure why you think Ontario has a privatized hydro system. The long-arm of Ontario’s government controlled by the Ontario Liberal party is the main reason why prices are so much higher than elsewhere (even after adjusting for types of electricity supplies).

Read:
https://globalnews.ca/news/3272095/ontario-energy-minister-admits-mistake-with-green-energy-program/
http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/boondoggle-how-ontarios-pursuit-of-renewable-energy-broke-the-provinces-electricity-system
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/09/27/ontario-liberals-scrap-plans-for-38-billion-in-renewable-energy-projects.html
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-liberals-gas-plants-scandal-everything-you-need-to-know/article23668386/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&amp;
http://environmentaldefence.ca/2017/02/01/shining-light-true-costs-renewable-energy-ontario/

#168 Karma on 10.18.17 at 2:50 am

In addition to my post above regarding this:

#70 SCM on 10.17.17 at 7:30 pm
“#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.17 at 7:25 pm

Wrong as always cef. It’s because Quebec has a state-owned utility run by the government that acts in the interests of the people, not shareholder leeches. A Quebecois politician running on a platform of privatizing Hydro-Quebec would be laughed out of the room and hopefully tar-and-feathered. Shame we didn’t do the same to Mike Harris. Nothing common sense about breaking up a perfectly good utility like Ontario Hydro.”

Are you aware of the Nuclear Used Fuel funds required for decommissioning the Nuclear power plants of Ontario?
http://www.opg.com/generating-power/nuclear/nuclear-waste-management/Pages/assuring-the-future.aspx

“The fair value of the Nuclear Funds at Dec. 31, 2016 was $19.4 billion.” This is something Quebec doesn’t need to invest in. That’s a lot of money to set aside for just getting rid of future nuclear waste and decommissioning of power plants in Ontario. And yes, this cost is factored into rates in Ontario.

Also, OPG is extremely generous with its pension. Check out how many employees are on the sunshine list.

#169 Karma on 10.18.17 at 2:55 am

#70 SCM

Check out Page 61 of the OPG Quarterly Report to see what the fair market value is now.

http://www.opg.com/about/finance/Documents/20170811CombinedNewsReleaseMDAOPGQ22017FINAL.pdf

#170 Karma on 10.18.17 at 3:02 am

#145 Oh oh on 10.17.17 at 10:58 pm
“My brother listed his east Vancouver house last week open on Sunday one offer below asking with subjects was supposed to remove tomorrow just got the call at supper tonight saying buyers are walking. Today’s announcement coincidence?”

Do you know how much below asking?

#171 Karma on 10.18.17 at 3:08 am

#148 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.17.17 at 11:18 pm
“#124 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 9:50 pm
Here’s map of Hydro-Quebec’s major facilities.

http://www.hydroquebec.com/about/our-energy/hydropower/pdf/map-major-facilities.pdf

No offense crowdelevatorfartz, but you might be legitimately insane.
————–
I gotta give it to the kid.
Kid:1 Fartz:0″

How so? The “kid” puts up a map of hydro dams, but forgets to comment that there are lines going into Labrador. Those lines are transmission lines, which take power from Labrador to Quebec. So the kid didn’t really help his cause by posting that map.

For example, according to this article, since 1969 Quebec has had a net benefit of $25.5 billion from this deal with Newfoundland and Labrador. “The contract set a fixed price for the energy that would decrease in stages over time.” I’m sure prices are a lot higher today than they were back then, so it’s a deal that gets better and better for Quebec.

http://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/supreme-court-to-review-hydro-quebecs-churchill-falls-energy-deal-with-newfoundland-and-labrador

#172 robert chua on 10.18.17 at 3:14 am

tim hudak is self interest

if you cannot afford you do not deserve to buy a house
simple as that

#173 Arne on 10.18.17 at 3:59 am

Wow, Garth and all you commenters are really smart.

Why doesn’t Trudeau and his cabinet simply take this blog’s advice verbatim and fix the country?

#174 dosouth on 10.18.17 at 5:01 am

I guess private lenders and Credit Unions will win on this not to mention client retention for the Big 6 on those that will not pass upon mortgage renewal….

#175 Stone on 10.18.17 at 5:11 am

#121 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 9:44 pm
#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.17 at 8:57 pm

What in the world are you on about. The vast majority of the electricity that Quebec generates, is generated in Quebec. Lol you think their whole operation is so successful because of 1 dam in NFLD? Do you have any idea how many hydroelectric installations they have in Quebec? Give it a rest, you sound unhinged. What are you a Newfie?

Newfoundland is the Greece of Canada. I’d give them back to the UK prontissimo. Make me King for a day, I’d have this country sorted out in no time.

—-

Excuse me! Excuse me your royal highness, King Prontissimo! Fix everything in a day? I’m now prepared with my notepad to take notes so that I can learn from the master. King for a day? Maybe you should start a little smaller and work your way up. Fire Chief for the day maybe? No. That’s too complicated as elementary kids do that. Don’t worry, I’ll find something for you that’s more appropriate to your station in life in the meatime. While you wait, To keep you occupied, here’s a toilet brush. It’s the best job I ever had to teach humility. Start scrubbing. Please and thank you.

#176 Stone on 10.18.17 at 6:28 am

#155 Catalyst on 10.18.17 at 12:08 am
This is the catalyst that will be the straw that broke the camels back. I didn’t understand why the rush to do this now – why not wait 6 months to see the full effect of all the other recent changes – but after watching the superintendent of OFSI on BNN today; I realized what a super weanie he is and does not give an F about impacts this has on borrowers, banks, or just about anyone. As garth says – this will not end well…

——

Sounds like he can’t be corrupted and will do what needs doing. I like him! He appears to be money well spent. I like him a lot! I think this will end very well. Very well indeed.

#177 Voice of Experience on 10.18.17 at 6:33 am

#130 Ponnaps on 10.17.17 at 9:57 pm
Hi Garth,

What are your thoughts on selling your home and renting it back for a couple of years(assuming one would find such a buyer)?

Moneywise it’s very compelling, a neat profit to be made while riding out the upcoming slow melt..

What, though, are the traps and consequences to be aware of in such a deal.
************************************

Well, let me tell you a story. Last June my husband and I did exactly what you propose. We harvested the windfall gains from a RE market gone bonkers and invested the sale proceeds with The Man himself. Signed a 2-year lease with a potential for a 3rd year and settled in for the duration in a house we love.

Fast forward just 3 weeks and my husband was diagnosed with terminal cancer and has been deteriorating ever since. Were moving to a rental apartment a month from now. If it weren’t for the fact our buyer/landlords are wonderful people, we’d be on the hook for the remainder of the 2 year-lease in any circumstance where a sub-leasee reneges on payments. Instead our landlord has drawn up a new lease with the next tenant and we have dodged a bullet aimed directly at our financial future.

My point: don’t ever think there aren’t pitfalls lying in wait for the best-laid plans you make.

#178 Stone on 10.18.17 at 6:43 am

#148 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.17.17 at 11:18 pm
#124 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 9:50 pm
Here’s map of Hydro-Quebec’s major facilities.

http://www.hydroquebec.com/about/our-energy/hydropower/pdf/map-major-facilities.pdf

No offense crowdelevatorfartz, but you might be legitimately insane.
————–
I gotta give it to the kid.
Kid:1 Fartz:0

——

Let’s level the playing field:
Kid: $0.02 Stone: just under $1,000,000.00

Oops. Kid had to consume something and feed the open market economy.

Kid: $0.01 Stone: just under $1,000,000.01

#179 JWD on 10.18.17 at 6:59 am

This daily blog is like reading the financial post – but so much cooler! This guy has the gift or what. Great insight Garth. Thank you

#180 Dharma Bum on 10.18.17 at 7:00 am

“If the government is sluggish and tolerant, the people will be honest and free from guile. If the government is prying and meddling, there will be constant infraction of the law. Is the government corrupt? Then uprightness becomes rare, and goodness becomes strange. Verily, mankind have been under delusion for many a day!”
-Lao Tzu

#181 Oft deleted much maligned stock picker on 10.18.17 at 7:27 am

BANNED

Continuous racist remarks. You are no longer welcome here. — Garth

#182 maxx on 10.18.17 at 7:34 am

#10 pam on 10.17.17 at 6:00 pm

“Time for BM to take a vacation at his villa. T2 needs to take a permanent vacation.”

Marc Garneau will totally eclipse Morneau.

T2? A permanent vacation would be the best gift to Canadians – ever.

Although not a fan of T1, history will show what an embarrassment T2 is in comparison.
A farce of epic proportions.

#183 Ryan on 10.18.17 at 8:12 am

Some folks here think – in light of the new regs – that parents will simply co-sign for their kid(s). While that may be true in some cases, many parents will not. They’ve heard too many horror stories of friends-of-friends who got burned when junior lost his job, got divorced, became a druggie, etc. etc. Fewer Boomers than you might think are willing to risk their retirement.

#184 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.18.17 at 8:23 am

Amazing.
I actually have people discussing the Quebec Newfoundland Hydro fiasco.

I can drool porridge, in my padded cell, a happy Boomer.

#185 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.18.17 at 8:26 am

@#182 Marc Garneau
“Marc Garneau will totally eclipse Morneau.”
++++

Perhaps Canada’s former astronaut will just “moon” him?

#186 maxx on 10.18.17 at 8:28 am

#24 Randy Cross on 10.17.17 at 6:16 pm

“Lucky there’s no Middle Class anymore”

To borrow (loosely) from Marcus Aurelius, in “Gladiator”:

“There was once a dream that was the Middle Class. You could only whisper it. Anything more than a whisper and it would vanish… it was so fragile.”

#187 YouLoser on 10.18.17 at 8:31 am

#19 Toronto is for winners, not WHINERS! on 10.17.17 at 6:09 pm
“Our country focuses on equality” …
…”Now if we can enforce bylaws to ban the homeless”

—–

slow down, the right side of your brain can’t keep up with the left

#188 Grey Dog on 10.18.17 at 8:34 am

New topic: Google sidewalk Labs a division of Alphabet currently under discussion and review for Eastern Port area of Toronto.

Much has been said the reason Toronto was selected following a world wide exploration of best location: besides the diversity factor, all three levels of government so well synchronized.

My question: Would this have happened had Harper continued to be at the helm? I recall him unable to meet with Wynn (except that one time for about a half an hour before a hockey game in Toronto) regarding the new Rouge National Park.

BTW In the past, I vote for all over the map.

#189 Dissident on 10.18.17 at 8:58 am

Ohhh snap. Check out this glorious diss of Morneau in parliament by an NDP dude. @1:28 hehe…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=9&v=9fi2DMplZbQ

#190 Dissident on 10.18.17 at 9:08 am

#19 Toronto is for winners, not WHINERS! on 10.17.17 at 6:09 pm

Toronto is not Detroit by any stretch because we are a growing city.

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

I am so confused right now.

This among other things in this post. Like wow. Haha.

#191 Dissident on 10.18.17 at 9:12 am

#41 Nancy Vieira on 10.17.17 at 6:43 pm

Thanks Nance. Now, if only my realtor would stop prodding me and asking when we want to sell. Looks like its gonna be next spring :((((( This moister don’t wanna wait *bangs fists on table* But oh well.

#192 Ole Doberman on 10.18.17 at 9:17 am

This is terrible news for housing, worse than the stress test – sex with robots. Imagine the decline in child birth rates:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/science/sex-with-robots-49-of-men-say-they-would-give-it-a-try-women-9/

#193 Canuck on 10.18.17 at 9:25 am

Why would people be happy about a housing crash. If you couldn’t afford before you will certainly not be able to buy now. It’s always funny how people aren’t willing to move to other places in the country to suit their level of income. If you can’t afford the area you live in then move but wishing for housing prices to crash and then have the stress test be unreasonable on the other end you still are out of the game so the joke I feel is on you. If you’re a homeowner it’s all relative 100 down for me is 100 down for my next buy as well

#194 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.18.17 at 9:27 am

People start emailing the competition bureau and every one else to get them to open up MLS. Realtors have got to go. It’s 2017 not 1987 where the realtors want us to be

#195 Where to draw the line on 10.18.17 at 9:32 am

So how far we go as socialists?

Do we ban all smoking – because that’s a cost to health care.

Enforce a diet for all citizens? Keep everyone thin.

Mandatory daily workouts for all? Keep those hearts healthy.

Police the people in parks for sunblock on high UV days?

If you want a lot of government because they are so smart why stop halfway?

Those of you don’t seem to get it. Choices are important, even bad ones.

You want to enforce your specific policies, that suit your specific views.

You don’t understand the concept freedom.

You’ve never had to live without it, and you millennials certainly have never had to fight for it.

Can you imagine how hard it is to live in DPRK, Saudi, China, any of the “stans”.

Tread lightly on my freedoms with your arrogance. My generation has picked up weapons in the past to defend this freedom.

What would you do?

#196 Dan.t on 10.18.17 at 9:41 am

#77 Md on 10.17.17 at 7:44 pm
I mean, if I buy a place and intend to stay there and raise a family and live my life…what do I care if the price goes up a hundred thousand or down a hundred thousand?
———————

ja right, ever hear of the wealth effect. People are out spending fictional equity, taking out more debt, living large exactly because they can point to their paper equity and credit is flowin…

Look at me I m a financial genius! Took all my money, borrowed , and bought Real Estate now I m up 100k, think I ll buy more or treat myself to this and that, ect…. “real estate never goes down”!

What do you think your mentality is when you are underwater 100k? Basically reverse that thinking.

If that ever happens to you (hope it never does), let me know how rich you feel and loose your purse strings are at that time.

That is why NDP and every political party will not touch Real estate with a 20 foot pool. They implement “for show” measures to make it look like they did something for votes but no one wants to be responsible for people sitting underwater with a massive mortgage and debt load. The only economy in Canada is people selling over priced houses to each other or to the next greater fool.

How often did Christy Clark say “we can’t mess with peoples hard earned equity”…and Horgan? Same thing now. So much for affordable housing.

Or how much of Canada GDP does housing make up (directly and indirectly)?

Not sustainable. Only is BC is it sustainable to have 850+k houses in Aldergrove because BC locals all make huge salaries. And I guess in YVR because the Casinos own 60% of all real estate:-) so 800+k two bedroom condos, plus strata and taxes and bla bla, doesn’t matter because money is no issue. All that laundered money needs to go somewhere.

#197 Smoking Man on 10.18.17 at 9:41 am

RIP Gord Downey.

We lost a beauty today.

#198 Ian on 10.18.17 at 9:43 am

HAPPY STRESS TEST EVERYONE!!!!

This has been the most glorious two days on this blog. I am so happy I am in tears. B-20 is here!

As for the comment about a $1m Langley property going to 800k and still being stupidly expensive, I completely agree. GTA property has a LONG way to go down before it’s in the land of the living in terms of sanity. We can only hope there is an overcorrection and we go BELOW a reasonable value, which I think has a good chance of occurring.

There isn’t enough Javex available at Costco for The Snowboarder’s and Tax Fairness’ underwear at this point. It’s a perfect storm. Backtracking like crazy on their insane business tax plan, and guaranteed housing bear until the election in 2019. It’s so beautiful I’m in tears.

It’s fitting that Marc Garneau is now involved in selling this business tax plan to the public, because this federal Liberal government has been in outer space from day one!

M48ON – UltraBlue!

#199 PastThePeak on 10.18.17 at 9:46 am

#159 8 Years of Failed Measures

It is a complete failure of logic to state that because something hasn’t worked in the past, it will never work in the future. Especially when the “things” are different each time.

I have no idea if RE in GTA and YVR will crash, but you have to look at the data to see who can afford to pay $1M+ for homes. Wages aren’t rising much – perhaps inline with inflation (few % a year). Expecting that housing to outpace that – when it already seems in the stratosphere – is foolish IMO.

As someone else wrote on here – all housing bubbles burst eventually. The debt levels reach a peak and then there is some other event which starts the downturn.

If you feel confident, then go all-in with housing. Don’t say that there weren’t many warnings though.

#200 Ian on 10.18.17 at 9:47 am

My only criticism of B-20 is this…

“You won’t be stress-tested upon renewal if you stick with your bank”

I do not understand that. Why would that matter? They should not exclude someone staying at their same bank and renewing.

#201 Penny Henny on 10.18.17 at 10:09 am

So how bad is it? Are these guys just moaning because their fees and commissions will piddle away? Or is this a market-killer?-Garth

////////////////////

Although it is quite certain that less people will qualify for a mortgage with the big banks however I can see an upside for Mortgage Brokers as more purchasers will be reliant on them to secure themselves a mortgage

#202 45north on 10.18.17 at 10:11 am

bilingualism in the civil service:

John Ivison: Yet, nearly five decades after the passage of the Official Languages Act, the public service is not bilingual enough, it seems.

I worked 40 years in the civil service. I was bilingual – it was a personal goal which required a lot of work. Most English-speaking civil servants gave up after 10 years or so.

French in Canada is maintained with a huge effort. I don’t think more can be done. Yet overall French is more threatened than ever because it’s not so much that French has shrunk in Canada, it’s that our boundaries have expanded – in North America just 2% of the population speaks French.

Ivison: The complaint is that even when French is used, it is symbolic – typically introduced at the beginning or end of a discussion but not sustained.

I remember many times a director would start off in French but quickly switch to English. It was understood by all that the language of work is English. One of the most costly exercises is simultaneous translation of conferences in English. It costs a lot to set up a sound-proof booth with multiple translators so that every word is translated. It’s much more effective if one of the facilitators is bilingual. He can greet everybody and answer questions in French.

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-concerns-raised-as-liberals-consider-tougher-linguistic-requirements-for-public-servants

#203 TurnerNation on 10.18.17 at 10:34 am

#67 lost not leased. So we have three waters in power – l’eau ?

Some say it’s all there: Banks – not river.
Current-cy is cash. And so on.

Cry me some liquidity.

#204 IHCTD9 on 10.18.17 at 11:05 am

#183 Ryan on 10.18.17 at 8:12 am

….got divorced,
_________________________________________

That’s all you need to know right there. I think Gen Z will not get near the handouts the Millennials did just because their Gen X parents are largely up on the statistics for Western marriages, and the trends in family court.

I’m happy to help out my Z kids with a few grand here or there, but the only way they will be getting major help (if they’ve taken a Wife) is if I hand them cash money, they never ever tell the Woman or anyone else about it, and they bury it safely out in the back 40.

Or if they are single of course.

Any kind of official, visible, large handout just isn’t going to happen no matter what if there is a Wife in the picture.

Way too many guys getting eaten alive in divorce court, going forward Men will again have to learn how to use a shovel.

#205 IHCTD9 on 10.18.17 at 11:08 am

#197 Smoking Man on 10.18.17 at 9:41 am
RIP Gord Downey.

We lost a beauty today.
________________________________

Local radio station has played nothing but the Hip all day so far. RIP Gordy

#206 Ian on 10.18.17 at 11:14 am

BoC a week today…what will happen?

Draaamaaa

I sure hope they keep raising. Surely they are not stopping here?

#207 YVR on 10.18.17 at 11:18 am

#200 Ian on 10.18.17 at 9:47 am
My only criticism of B-20 is this…

“You won’t be stress-tested upon renewal if you stick with your bank”

I do not understand that. Why would that matter? They should not exclude someone staying at their same bank and renewing.

———

They can extort money out of liar loans.

#208 Toronto guy on 10.18.17 at 11:18 am

I dodnt understand all this housing market crush blah-blah – blah here not supported but any facts . Mean wile real figures show that RE in Toronto is up year over year and quarter over quarter and you cant argue this . Some times one have to admit that hi is wrong and move on .
http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/recovery-underway-in-the-greater-toronto-area-real-estate-market-650555333.html

#209 Taxguy on 10.18.17 at 11:20 am

So Bill Morneau failed to disclose his ownership of a french villa to the ‘ethics watchdog’ – I wonder if he also failed to properly disclose it to CRA on his tax returns?

Hmmmm.

#210 YVR on 10.18.17 at 11:21 am

This stress test will have an impact on housing prices if if demand was all local. Zero effect if the demand is due to foreign money.

Lets see what happens in YVR in next 100 days.

#211 LivinLarge on 10.18.17 at 11:27 am

Re: “Where to draw the line”… smoking does not cause an increase in healthcare expenses, it actually decreases healthcare expenses a bit. I know that sounds totally counter intuitive but it is a fact. Smokers die sooner than non smokers as any actuarial table shows and they therefor spend considerably less time languishing in longterm care facilities and those facilities are a significant budgetary expense.

Re:”Ian”… Rhe reason for not stress testing straight renewals is two fold. First, renewals are essentially paper transactions requiring virtually no human interaction at the bank. To suddenly require the banks to stress test existing clients would royally screw up their staffing requirements but more importantly, an existing mortgage is already stress tested by the payment and covenant hustory of the borrower.

#212 Hamilton on 10.18.17 at 11:31 am

Hi Garth, got this today from a Realtor surprise there was no BUY NOW in it.
See below

“As you may have heard on the news today about the upcoming changes that will be going into effect come January 1st, 2018….

To put you at ease and give you some insight, I am attaching a breakdown of what these new guidelines will entail and also a link to the Government website that outlines the B20 Mortgage Rules.

Since the changes were just announced today, the lenders will need time to adjust their policies and guidelines to reflect the New rules. Once these new rules are applied, I will keep you up to date on how this will affect your own mortgage financing as we approach the January 1st, 2018 implementation.

Implementation of B-20 Guidelines
As you may have already heard, the OSFI (Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada) published its final version of the B-20 Guideline Residential Mortgage Underwriting Practices and Procedures which comes into effect on January 1, 2018 and affects all federally regulated financial institutions.
The following highlight the changes which surrounds the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages:
OSFI is setting a new minimum qualifying rate, or “stress test” for uninsured mortgages. Guideline B-20 now requires the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages to be the greater of the five-year benchmark rate published by the Bank of Canada or the contractual mortgage rate + 2%
​OSFI is requiring lenders to enhance their loan-to-value (LTV) measurement and limits so they will be dynamic and responsive to risk.
OSFI is placing restrictions on certain lending arrangements that are designed to circumvent LTV limits. This prohibits the financial institution from arranging with another lender a mortgage or other lending products that circumvents the institution’s maximum LTV ratio or other limits in its underwriting policy.
For more information on Guideline B-20, please refer to this link – http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/fi-if/rg-ro/gdn-ort/gl-ld/Pages/b20_dft.aspx

#213 Johnnyboy on 10.18.17 at 11:32 am

#28 TnT on 10.17.17 at 6:19 pm
Russian trade wars incoming…
Canadian Magnitsky Act passed

https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/920382279913963522

The end of the Cold War left too much money on the table.

Game on….
……………………………………………………………………
What game? They are Russians. Russians don’t play games they manipulate and any anti-Russian actions by the Canadian authorities will not be left without an adequate response from them. So some of us may find themselves banned from getting a Russian visa. Now nice Canadians will know what it feels like to be under Russian sanctions. I have dealt with Russians in business, my Rule they pay upfront in CA$H. Then I work with them. Not that I don’t trust them but I know their rules of engagement quite well.

#214 Shortymac on 10.18.17 at 11:35 am

I just got a call last night from the Realtor who helped me find my new rental who is trying to convince me to jump into the purchasing game.

Now that I’m in a nice spacious rental I’m not too concerned about buying. So much less stress.

#215 Johnnyboy on 10.18.17 at 11:36 am

#201 Penny Henny on 10.18.17 at 10:09 am

So how bad is it? Are these guys just moaning because their fees and commissions will piddle away? Or is this a market-killer?-Garth

////////////////////

Although it is quite certain that less people will qualify for a mortgage with the big banks however I can see an upside for Mortgage Brokers as more purchasers will be reliant on them to secure themselves a mortgage
………………………………………………………………….
People here in the city will always qualify for mortgages by an method possible. Bank of Mom, second cousins, legit banks, lenders, brokers, Gino down the road behind the sausage factory. They gotta live here.

#216 God on 10.18.17 at 11:37 am

DELETED

#217 Johnnyboy on 10.18.17 at 11:43 am

#202 45north on 10.18.17 at 10:11 am

bilingualism in the civil service:

John Ivison: Yet, nearly five decades after the passage of the Official Languages Act, the public service is not bilingual enough, it seems.

I worked 40 years in the civil service. I was bilingual – it was a personal goal which required a lot of work. Most English-speaking civil servants gave up after 10 years or so.

French in Canada is maintained with a huge effort. I don’t think more can be done. Yet overall French is more threatened than ever because it’s not so much that French has shrunk in Canada, it’s that our boundaries have expanded – in North America just 2% of the population speaks French.

Ivison: The complaint is that even when French is used, it is symbolic – typically introduced at the beginning or end of a discussion but not sustained.

I remember many times a director would start off in French but quickly switch to English. It was understood by all that the language of work is English. One of the most costly exercises is simultaneous translation of conferences in English. It costs a lot to set up a sound-proof booth with multiple translators so that every word is translated. It’s much more effective if one of the facilitators is bilingual. He can greet everybody and answer questions in French.

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-concerns-raised-as-liberals-consider-tougher-linguistic-requirements-for-public-servants
……………………………………………………………………
This is going to be a nightmare when a fully bilingual person gets promoted based on bilingual proficiency and not proficiency on their particular profession. Now you may have idiots that can undoubtedly enunciate their deficiency of understanding in two languages.

#218 Ron Maiden on 10.18.17 at 11:46 am

#159 8 Years of Failed Measures on 10.18.17 at 12:57 am

Once again, the impact of the OSFI is being heralded as a ‘market killer’ on this blog, much like every other federal measure implemented over the past 8 years.

Remember the moister killing stress test for insured mortgages last year that was going to wipe out 15-20% of buyers and see a corresponding drop in prices? How did that work out? Right, prices went through the roof with double digit increases in places like Vancouver, Victoria and TO…

Go back on this blog and review the joy each time the feds brought out a change that was going to be a market changer. Remember the elimination of the 40 year 0 down mortgage; the changes to the amount you could withdraw on your equity for purchasing other properties; the new down payment increases last year, to name but a few. And each time these measures were implemented prices went up.

I hate to burst everyone’s bubble but the main banks have already been using the new stress tests for a while in anticipation of the ‘changes.’ Some deals have fallen through as bank appraisals accompanying the new tests have not given the potential buyers what they wanted. Scotiabank in particular has already been doing this and the good realtors (oxymoron, I know) will tell you this.

And yet prices are super sticky and not going anywhere in most of the overheated markets.

Don’t worry, in about six months time, a new ‘market changing’ measure will be announced, all to keep the hope up of a crash.
——————————————————–
sadly this poster is correct. Canadian RE has defied gravity through a lot, and wasn’t there hedge funds shorting RE a few years ago or longer – they were wrong.

I’m thinking at some point it may happen, but that’s why making market calls is difficult, especially nowadays where fundamentals seem disconnected from markets – just look at Bitcoin, who would spend 5K on a crypo that can be squashed by government overnight.

#219 Johnnyboy on 10.18.17 at 11:48 am

#197 Smoking Man on 10.18.17 at 9:41 am

RIP Gord Downey.
We lost a beauty today.
……………………………………………………………….
Nice hook Smoking Man with your hyperlink on your name. Thanks to Garth you now get free advertising on your shtick.
Garth, can I advertise my HVAC company on here to? Do I have to pay you a commission?

#220 Happy home owner on 10.18.17 at 11:55 am

Canadian detached house price forecast, 2017-2022

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/09/13/many-canadian-cities-to-see-years-of-falling-house-prices-moodys_a_23207819/

Moodys the most reputable rating agency predicts Toronto RE up,up, up…

#221 IHCTD9 on 10.18.17 at 11:57 am

#167 Karma on 10.18.17 at 2:36 am

Furthermore, OPG is still owned by the government, as is Hydro One (majority) and the majority of local distribution networks. So I’m not sure why you think Ontario has a privatized hydro system. The long-arm of Ontario’s government controlled by the Ontario Liberal party is the main reason why prices are so much higher than elsewhere (even after adjusting for types of electricity supplies).
____________________________________________

Wynne’s plan is to sell off 60% of Hydro One to the Private sector. She says because the sale will not allow any one entity to own more than 10%, and that the Province’s share of 40% will always be 4X what anyone else owns, that the Province then maintains “control” over the corporation.

Of course, she doesn’t mention that everyone gets to vote, and the votes cast by the Province will always be less than the combined total of everyone else.

So if the vote is to put rates up, do you think the 60% private ownership are going to be all up in arms arguing amongst themselves if this is a good idea? Yeah, right! 60% unanimous decision in favour of the private ownership – every time – watch and see. Rates will go up at every opportunity. We’re not going to see JACK for disagreement amongst the 60% on basically any issue.

When the sale of Hydro One is completed past 50% total – that is the end of effective public control for Ontario’s distribution system.

#222 SimplyPut7 on 10.18.17 at 12:00 pm

#200 Ian on 10.18.17 at 9:47 am

Because the banks would have to admit there are 1000s of people who have mortgages with them that would not qualify under B-20 without that clause.

I think the map at Better Dwelling sums up pretty well who would be affected in Toronto and Vancouver under B-20.

Greater Vancouver Area
https://betterdwelling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Stress-Testing-Vancouver-Real-Estate-Under-OSFI%E2%80%99s-New-B-20-Guidelines.png

Greater Toronto Area
https://betterdwelling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Stress-Testing-Toronto-Real-Estate-Under-New-OSFI-Guidelines.png

#223 Anthony Maw on 10.18.17 at 12:08 pm

Also implement a BAN on foreign speculator capital from Canadian real estate and at least temporarily impose a TOTAL BAN ON non-resident buying and ensure that the beneficial owner actually lives in the house and not his unemployed housewife or student kid or his one month old Canadian-born birth tourism baby.

#224 Ogopogo on 10.18.17 at 12:22 pm

It’s impossible to overstate how joyous this makes me. I literally jumped for joy when I saw the headline on CBC. The fact that scummy realtors are howling in rage makes it all the sweeter and proves that this is precisely what we needed in this horrendous, toxic housing bubble.

Hoping for a crash, but expecting a slow melt, as our beloved host has so often stated.

#225 Victor V on 10.18.17 at 12:40 pm

CMHC says it can absorb shock of 31.5% price crash

http://www.bnn.ca/cmhc-says-it-can-absorb-shock-of-31-5-price-crash-1.888443

#226 Victor V on 10.18.17 at 12:43 pm

Ottawa sets $50,000 threshold on new tax to target only 3% of ‘most wealthy’

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/taxes/liberals-narrow-passive-income-measure-on-private-firms-to-target-most-wealthy

Canada’s Finance Minister announced the latest amendment to controversial tax proposals, saying the government will add an income threshold for a new levy on so-called “passive income” of private corporations.

Bill Morneau announced the change Wednesday in New Brunswick, saying a new tax on passive income investments from within so-called Canadian Controlled Private Corporations will only apply to earnings above $50,000 a year. An example of passive income within a CCPC would be a person investing for retirement, rather than their active business, within a professional corporation.

The announcement tweaks one of three July proposals that triggered a backlash. The finance minister also offered a hint of how much money the government will reap from the changes, calling it “orders of magnitude” above the $250 million forecast to be raised by measures restricting so-called income sprinkling. The government will use the new revenue in a way that “enables us to make the system that much better for middle class Canadians.”

The changes mean 97 per cent of Canadian private corporations will not be affected by passive income tax, Morneau said.

#227 TnT on 10.18.17 at 12:46 pm

The Psychological Roots Of Nationalism vs. Globalism

I post this a great risk of inflating Smoking Scrub’s ego and getting a big fat I told you so in rebuttals.

I think this guy (Jonathan Haidt) makes a great case for why the Globalist are wrong.

Not conceding that Globalization is not beneficial to humans but it definitely will not work in its current expansion processes.

Jonathan Haidt: The Psychological Roots Of Nationalism vs. Globalism

It’s only 11:00 minute long, worth every minute.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=o-FSppkdYHo

Enjoy!

#228 Waiverless on 10.18.17 at 12:47 pm

Had dinner with a mortgage broker family member in the Vancouver area..works for one of the big 5. His take on B-20
-Refinancers are in deep trouble when they come to the banks after the changes
-Unreported or under-reported income won’t be buying until they start declaring in their tax returns*
-He says everyone he meets is leveraged out the wazoo… says its super scary
-Income + Down Payment + No Debt = you’re golden.. wait to buy
-Figures more activity in the condo market since more people will be priced out of homes

*Which both of us being East Indian started having a discussion on other relatives who have businesses and vastly under report cause they take some of the payments as cash. B-20 may have a significant affect on those types of buyers.

#229 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 10.18.17 at 12:53 pm

BANNED

#230 Renter's Revenge! on 10.18.17 at 12:58 pm

#19 Toronto is for winners, not WHINERS! on 10.17.17 at 6:09 pm

https://www.policyalternatives.ca/best-worst2017

Read ’em and weep! (the rankings that is)

Toronto is the 10th best place in Canada to be a woman! Doesn’t sound like much of a winner to me. Even St. John’s and Halifax beat you guys! LOL

#231 Braj on 10.18.17 at 1:21 pm

#177 Voice of Experience on 10.18.17 at 6:33 am
#130 Ponnaps on 10.17.17 at 9:57 pm
Hi Garth,

What are your thoughts on selling your home and renting it back for a couple of years(assuming one would find such a buyer)?

Moneywise it’s very compelling, a neat profit to be made while riding out the upcoming slow melt..

What, though, are the traps and consequences to be aware of in such a deal.
************************************

Well, let me tell you a story. Last June my husband and I did exactly what you propose. We harvested the windfall gains from a RE market gone bonkers and invested the sale proceeds with The Man himself. Signed a 2-year lease with a potential for a 3rd year and settled in for the duration in a house we love.

Fast forward just 3 weeks and my husband was diagnosed with terminal cancer and has been deteriorating ever since. Were moving to a rental apartment a month from now. If it weren’t for the fact our buyer/landlords are wonderful people, we’d be on the hook for the remainder of the 2 year-lease in any circumstance where a sub-leasee reneges on payments. Instead our landlord has drawn up a new lease with the next tenant and we have dodged a bullet aimed directly at our financial future.

My point: don’t ever think there aren’t pitfalls lying in wait for the best-laid plans you make.

***

:( I am sorry to hear that. Sometimes a reflection on our lives is necessary to appreciate what truly have..only a short time on this Earth full of joys, sorrows, and growing pains.

#232 Howard on 10.18.17 at 1:29 pm

If This Hour Has 22 Minutes were impartial, it would have a skit showing Morneau wearing a beret and shirt with horizontal stripes sipping champagne at his French villa while preaching fairness.

#233 Eks dee Sipal on 10.18.17 at 1:31 pm

Tim who-dat? Hudak is an idiot. That’s the simple Occam’s Razor explanation. A Conservative to boot. Of course. Imagine my shock.

#234 Mattl on 10.18.17 at 1:36 pm

Flop- don’t lose too much sleep over that Chester house. Yes it sold under ask, but I don’t see any previous sales history on it somthe owner likely made 900k tax free instead of 1mm tax free. Focusing on ask to sale price, as has been pointed out numerous times, is a silly way to evaluate a housing market unless you know all the comps. Bottom line is the seller likely made a small fortune on that POS house. The fact that a dump of a house in a seedy area of Van can sell for 1.35 in a down market is the real story.

#235 Guy in Calgary on 10.18.17 at 1:38 pm

#200 Ian on 10.18.17 at 9:47 am
My only criticism of B-20 is this…

“You won’t be stress-tested upon renewal if you stick with your bank”

I do not understand that. Why would that matter? They should not exclude someone staying at their same bank and renewing.

I suspect the reason is that you already qualified when you got the mortgage. If you have paid on time with no hiccups, what sense does it make to re-qualify? You do not do this with any other type of loan.

If you have been delinquent then there may be a discussion.

#236 jess on 10.18.17 at 1:41 pm

for scm

http://www.heritage.nf.ca/articles/politics/churchill-falls.php

One of the Smallwood government’s central ambitions was to develop the natural resources of Newfoundland and Labrador. In 1952 Smallwood approached some leading British bankers and industrialists, and the following year the British Newfoundland Corporation (BRINCO) was created. The Corporation received extensive land and water rights in the province, among them the hydro-electric potential of the upper reaches of the Hamilton River, which was re-named the Churchill River in 1965….1958 Water Rights

In 1958, BRINCO created the Hamilton Falls Power Company (HFPCo), which was in turn later re-named the Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corporation (CFLCo), as a federally incorporated subsidiary. Water rights to the Hamilton Falls were transferred to HFPCo and, at BRINCO’s invitation, the Shawinigan Engineering Company bought a 20 percent interest.

read on further

Challenges with the Project

http://www.heritage.nf.ca/articles/politics/churchill-falls.php

” The interior Labrador boundary had been established in 1927 by the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council.

#237 IHCTD9 on 10.18.17 at 1:41 pm

#193 Canuck on 10.18.17 at 9:25 am

It’s always funny how people aren’t willing to move to other places in the country to suit their level of income.
__________________________________________

Folks hop from country to country looking for a better life like it’s nothing, but moving to an affordable area once there seems to be too difficult.

I was born and 50% raised in Thunder Bay On, and I’ll be forever glad that my parents uprooted and headed for greener pastures while I was still a kid. They didn’t like where things were headed with mining, forestry, pulp and paper etc. Simple as that, adios.

I would be equally glad if they had looked ahead and saw massive demographic changes, fewer and lower paying jobs, stupid expensive real estate, and insufferable congestion being the reason we packed up and left. Maybe even more so.

Lots of suckers in Canada’s metropolises.

#238 Howard on 10.18.17 at 1:43 pm

#220 Happy home owner on 10.18.17 at 11:55 am
Canadian detached house price forecast, 2017-2022

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/09/13/many-canadian-cities-to-see-years-of-falling-house-prices-moodys_a_23207819/

Moodys the most reputable rating agency predicts Toronto RE up,up, up…

————————

At this point I’m practically rooting for that scenario. I don’t live there so it won’t impact me, but my parents own a house in the 416. If the housing market in Toronto is to be indefinitely disengaged from the reality of no real wage growth since the 90s, at least some of my family will benefit.

#239 PastThePeak on 10.18.17 at 1:46 pm

#207 Toronto guy

Yep – I expect housing in TO to rise at least 10% per year for the next few decades – maybe even longer – because “Toronto, world class city, others are more expensive, RE never goes down for long, immigration”.

Wages, interest rates, and extravagant debt levels will have not bearing on how high this baby can go!

Put all available money in – now!

#240 Smoking Man on 10.18.17 at 1:53 pm

With Nafta about to fall apart how many dogs have forex accounts opened and funded, ready to become instant millionaires.

#241 jess on 10.18.17 at 1:53 pm

for scm:

the Shawinigan Engineering Company

1898-1929 – Corporate Consolidations and Big Projects

http://www.hydroquebec.com/history-electricity-in-quebec/timeline/corporate-consolidations-big-projects.html

#242 NoName on 10.18.17 at 1:58 pm

#220 Happy home owner on 10.18.17 at 11:55 am
Canadian detached house price forecast, 2017-2022

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/09/13/many-canadian-cities-to-see-years-of-falling-house-prices-moodys_a_23207819/

Moodys the most reputable rating agency predicts Toronto RE up,up, up…

—-

I give you treeple A rating for your post.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/27/magazine/27Credit-t.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/moodys-says-justice-department-is-preparing-a-complaint-1477056302

#243 James Amey on 10.18.17 at 2:04 pm

Can’t you just opt into being CMHC insured and pay that fee monthly and that way you don’t have to be stress tested?

Is that a possibility?

#244 Protea on 10.18.17 at 2:21 pm

When a country’s economy is based on an unsustainable house price bubble a downturn is inevitable.

#245 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.18.17 at 2:21 pm

#120 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 9:41 pm
#97 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 8:39 pm
“Shall I remind you of the $1 TRILLION in the bank that those pinko socialists have in Norway?”

——–

Ummm, no. Norway isn’t a socialist utopia, contrary to what people will have you believe.

SCM, read this for more info, though I doubt that you will:

https://fee.org/articles/the-myth-of-scandinavian-socialism/

——————————————-

I notice that you can never actually address what I said. All you do is strawman and debate things I never said.

I never said Norway is a utopia. I said they have a sovereign wealth fund with $1 TRILLION in it. For 5 million people.

Smarten up.

You’re an embarrassment to Screwed Canadian Millenials.

———–

Actually, you mentioned the word socialist and I simply pointed out that Norway is NOT a socialist country… far from it.

Plus, if we want to have a Trillion dollars in our sovereign fund, let’s start with getting our oil to tidewater. Energy East anyone? Let’s at least get a fair price for our oil.

Thoughts?

#246 AJ Hammertown on 10.18.17 at 2:23 pm

Is everyone who is saying this isn’t a big deal myopic? Yes, there’s been other govt interventions BUT when have we had such a shitstorm brewing down south? Consumer confidence will be flushed down the toilet every morning we read our phones and find out little rocket man is doing this, or climate change doing that, or the orange dotard is ripping up this. IT is different. We’re wobbling of the tracks and our conductor is a loon, and the tracks are being washed away. Not time to sit and have a tea in the compartment now is it?

#247 paul on 10.18.17 at 2:34 pm

#194 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.18.17 at 9:27 am

People start emailing the competition bureau and every one else to get them to open up MLS. Realtors have got to go. It’s 2017 not 1987 where the realtors want us to be
—————————————————————–
“where the realtors want us to be’
Not us just you! lol

#248 Sidelined Buyer on 10.18.17 at 2:42 pm

The vindication I feel after all the pressure I took from family members, realtors, etc. is palpable. After selling out of the GTA and pocketing the proceeds and renting, I’ve been able to pay off all my debt, set aside an emergency fund, and put a small sum in ETFs.

All I had been hearing was how the fall market would be white hot and I’d be making a terrible mistake, never being able to get back into the housing market. I would talk about the specter of rising rates and the stress test to rebuttals of “you’re overthinking this” or “they’ll never do that to us… so many people would be hurt by this.”

How nice it is to be fully deleveraged before the music stops and the hammer hits. Hopefully, we’ll be in the perfect position to buy once prices fall to support levels again. No doubt, those who scolded our decision to rent will chalk up our beneficial moves to “luck,” forgetting that they are among a cohort who puts more thought into purchasing laundry detergent than a home.

#249 Lost...but not leased on 10.18.17 at 2:51 pm

Cheering on the B-20 RE apocalypse ? ……Why ?

While it’s human nature to get frustrated at the actions of lemmings and the march to a sad predictable end…I personally don’t get any “I Told You So” satisfaction bwhahahahaha.

We are in uncharted waters given the RE market is global and can only guess at what the results will be.

I read an article in ” Better Dwelling ” a couple of weeks back that Toronto has 17,000 (seventeen thousand) condos up for pre sale over next TWO WEEKS, which won’t be built for 3-7 years.

Pure insanity…

The collateral damage will be huge…the economic shock waves will tear society apart. Imagine increases in divorces , suicides, alcoholism etc…are we cheering that on??? or maybe take a few steps back from the abyss.

Makes one look to old Twilight Zone episodes, like Burgess Meredith as the Librarian who survives a nuclear blast…all by himself…til____(watch it…).

Appears the future holds 2 options…a major global collapse (perhaps the aim of Govts)or the game gets re-rigged and juiced for another ride.,,as I doubt there is any middle ground.

#250 tighten the noose on 10.18.17 at 2:57 pm

Everyone is in the market. Some even with multiple properties, possibly bit more off than they can chew.

Few are on the sidelines.

When the noose tightens, the lights will eventually go out in the RE nirvana of 604 as well.

100% cash buyers are very few and far in-between. The whole market is build on easy access to leverage. That leverage was never supposed to be supported by income levels.

Good luck trying to offload $3 mil houses in Vancouver, 1.5 mil in Surrey, 950k houses in Langley and 700k houses in Abbotsford.

This shit show has lasted way longer than anyone thought possible.

#251 Generational Hate on 10.18.17 at 3:04 pm

#178 Stone
Kid: $0.01 Stone: just under $1,000,000.01

That’s not how it works, Stone.
You do not assign points to yourself, you let neutrals do that.

And so far, SCM has provided a reference, and you did not.
Stone -1, SCM +1.

Also, stop this hate between generations.
Every generation has great and horrible people.
Just because you are an older generation does not make you a better generation.

If anything, the younger generation may have a slight edge on you:
https://singularityhub.com/2016/06/27/why-the-world-is-better-than-you-think-in-10-powerful-charts/

#252 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.18.17 at 3:12 pm

Delusional SHYSTERS. Now that B20 will crash the market my new energy is to get rid of you. The competition bureau is coming for you shysters I will email everyone. I hope others do the same. Together we can open up the RE industry to the free and open market. SHYSTERS time is running out.

#253 Stan Brooks on 10.18.17 at 3:29 pm

Many people wondering why Wild Bill is in politics.

Consider this: According to the liberals infrastructure spending proposals:

1. There will be a new Infrastructure Bank that will loan to Big Businesses the funds needed to build the infrastructure in question.

Picture it: Instead of paying for finished work our corrupted liberal leaders will actually loan money to Businesses to build infrastructure at no risk to them.

So if a corrupted Business sprinkles (yes, the Wild Bill sprinkle word) money to child Businesses for doing nothing and then goes bankrupt without delivering anything of value for the money spent, too bad.
The taxpayer is on the hook.
Imagine the degree of corruption required in order to conceive such infrastructure plan.

2. The Finance Minister will be the one approving the actual deals and Businesses to loan money to.
60-125 billions of them.

So the question is: Do you trust this ‘transparent’ Finance Minister in that?

I don’t.

#254 Stan Brooks on 10.18.17 at 3:34 pm

He is a drama teacher for a reason:

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/pm-struggles-keep-composure-responding-gord-downies-death-154304323.html

#255 Lost...but not leased on 10.18.17 at 3:37 pm

DELETED

#256 SCD on 10.18.17 at 3:39 pm

Charlie Angus calls out Morneau:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLLb06U4q-M

#257 Damifino on 10.18.17 at 3:46 pm

#249 Lost…but not leased

Cheering on the B-20 RE apocalypse ? ……Why ?
———————————–

You aren’t getting it. We aren’t cheering for an ‘I-told-you-so’ apocalypse. We’re cheering because we’ve passed another milestone on the long journey back to health in the housing sector.

If someone we know is slowly recovering from a bad accident, we don’t go to their hospital room and point out all the ways in which they still suffer deficits and say they’ll probably just have to live with it.

On the contrary, we celebrate and encourage every small daily step they make on the road to what we hope will be a full recovery. This B-20 business can be seen as one of those steps.

That’s what I’m happy about.

#258 maxx on 10.18.17 at 3:53 pm

#185 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.18.17 at 8:26 am

@#182 Marc Garneau
” “Marc Garneau will totally eclipse Morneau.”
++++

Perhaps Canada’s former astronaut will just “moon” him?”

Lord luv ya darlin’, ya make me laff…

…either way, it’ll be hard to “mISS”. ;-)

#259 Alex Johnson on 10.18.17 at 3:53 pm

@#249

It’s not so much cheering as a return to sanity. What is not to cheer about trying to get debt under control that can bring the whole country to it’s knees because some idiots thought its great business to buy boxes that there are plenty of and plenty more to come because…you know, we are the 2nd biggest land mass with a population of 35million.

Every damn fool thought that by doing nothing and buying a house (a box with zero technology, well almost zero) he/she will become a millionaire.

If you want to make (more)money get a better job by raising your qualifications or make smart investment decisions buy doing your research…See how both things require one to do some actual work? Not just walk into a bank, as for money and sit on your ass, because you know, that warrants big returns, big bucks.

Vancouver aside, Toronto is simply pathetic. What a lot of idiots…Been fortunate enough to travel all around North America the last two years and scratch my head every time I get back to Toronto. There is nothing wrong with the city, idiots aside, but I sure as hell don’t see what is so “world class” about it. In all honesty there is nothing world class about it.

Nothing bad will come of it. All that will happen is that those fools that thought they were rich will take massive haircuts and will have to work for the next fifteen years to pay off their debts.

No one asked anyone to jump into the fire that is/was the Toronto real estate, people did this by choice. Why should I feel pity for those that will be financially ruined over the next few years? They are the very fools that drove the market to the point where it has to collapse. Why should I feel sorry?

#260 CRA is coming on 10.18.17 at 4:13 pm

#240 Smoking Man on 10.18.17 at 1:53 pm

With Nafta about to fall apart how many dogs have forex accounts opened and funded, ready to become instant millionaires.
________________________________________
“He says while hiding in his sons apartment all the time the CRA is circling in”

#261 Long-Time Lurker on 10.18.17 at 4:16 pm

Off-topic but in the public interest:

Regarding the opioid overdose crisis: The drug supply chain is said to go from addicts to drug dealers (“patients”) to crooked doctors to small clinics and pharmacies to pharmaceutical companies.

No More Fake News Exclusive: insider reveals how the opioid crime network operates!
October 17, 2017

https://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2017/10/17/no-more-fake-news-exclusive-insider-reveals-how-the-opioid-crime-network-operates/

#262 Spock#2 on 10.18.17 at 4:26 pm

Alex Johnson said, “…but I sure as hell don’t see what is so “world class” about it.” Hell, Istanbul, Turkey is much more world class than ugly T.O. will ever be, and Istanbul has 14.65 million people, a better climate, a great transportation system and way-lower cost of living.

#263 Smoking Man on 10.18.17 at 4:30 pm

#227 TnT on 10.18.17 at 12:46 pm
The Psychological Roots Of Nationalism vs. Globalism

I post this a great risk of inflating Smoking Scrub’s ego and getting a big fat I told you so in rebuttals.

I think this guy (Jonathan Haidt) makes a great case for why the Globalist are wrong.

Not conceding that Globalization is not beneficial to humans but it definitely will not work in its current expansion processes.

Jonathan Haidt: The Psychological Roots Of Nationalism vs. Globalism

It’s only 11:00 minute long, worth every minute.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=o-FSppkdYHo

Enjoy!
….

When talking nationalism always put the word economic in front of nationalism.

Other wise the left will try and brand you a Nazi. Economic Nationalism includes everyone within the boarders

#264 Smoking Man on 10.18.17 at 4:41 pm

#260 CRA is coming on 10.18.17 at 4:13 pm
#240 Smoking Man on 10.18.17 at 1:53 pm

With Nafta about to fall apart how many dogs have forex accounts opened and funded, ready to become instant millionaires.
________________________________________
“He says while hiding in his sons apartment all the time the CRA is circling in”
….

Have no choice Blew all my loot on the savage casino road trip. In Sept. Took 3 weeks.
Thank God I have a good kid
Eating craft dinner tonight.

#265 jess on 10.18.17 at 4:43 pm

Scotiabank looks to sell gold trading unit after money laundering scandal
https://www.ft.com/content/aabd236e-e763-3355-a51d-0a0f52689124

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/scotiabank-looks-to-sell-gold-trading-unit-in-wake-of-scandal-report/article36638751/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&amp;

#266 Stan Brooks on 10.18.17 at 5:04 pm

If Wild Bill does not resign immediately, this will destroy the liberal party.

And he is stubborn enough to destroy it.

T2 looks pathetic when trying to defend the un-deffendable,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKRZgvQiTE4

These people are not politicians. Any politician will cut losses at this point.

These people are suicidal.

#267 Engineer with no job on 10.18.17 at 5:09 pm

Re: #218

I am afraid you are right. R/E price is sticky in canada.

#268 jess on 10.18.17 at 5:19 pm

CMHC says it could absorb shock of 31.5% crash in home prices

Matt Scuffham, Reuters

#269 Stan Brooks on 10.18.17 at 5:29 pm

The little weasel holds his stocks through a private corporation so he is not required to disclose that to the ethics commissioner.

If hold directly, he should report it.

Who controls the private corporation? he of course.

And apparently THIS IS NOT A TAX LOOPHOLE
as it applies to him, not to 2 million small Business owners.

In addition it appears there is direct conflict of interest on his Bill C27 and the work his company is doing on converting defined benefit plans to target benefit plant to detriment of millions of Canadians.

He is a damaged good.

He will never recover from this.

Good Bye.

#270 Stan Brooks on 10.18.17 at 5:34 pm

#268 jess on 10.18.17 at 5:19 pm
CMHC says it could absorb shock of 31.5% crash in home prices

Matt Scuffham, Reuters

——————————-

You trust CMHC ?
Price have already declined that much in GTA from the top. Does that mean we are on the brink of collapse there?

How about more realistic 60-70 % decline, similar to Ireland which had actually a smaller bubble?

Then what?

#271 Stan Brooks on 10.18.17 at 5:38 pm

I saw this and it gave me chills.

http://www.reuters.com/article/canada-housing-cmhc/canadian-housing-agency-says-it-can-withstand-severe-downturn-idUSW1N1L201F?feedType=RSS&feedName=financialsSector

———————————
CMHC said a housing correction resulting from a 5 percentage point increase in Canada’s unemployment rate and a 30 percent decline in house prices would produce a cumulative net loss of C$217 million ($174 million) over the five-year period, though the minimum capital test ratio would stand at 182 percent. A level below zero indicates insolvency.

“We seek out extreme, almost unimaginable situations and ask ourselves ‘what if?’,” CMHC Chief Risk Officer Romy Bowers said. “In all cases, this year’s stress testing shows we are well capitalized to handle these very severe situations.”
————————————
I want to see their risk models.

My actuary expectation is more of a loss of 20 + billion per year in that scenario.

Have them audited by external actuary firm.
I don’t trust them.

#272 RyYYZ on 10.18.17 at 5:43 pm

#211 LivinLarge on 10.18.17 at 11:27 am

Smokers also often don’t live long enough to draw their CPP or OAS, saving the government even more money.

They also pay a hell of lot of sin taxes on their cigarettes (if they aren’t getting them on the reserve).

I mean, if the argument against smoking is a financial one around the monetary costs to society, then let’s be completely honest and clear about it, right.

#273 conan on 10.18.17 at 6:01 pm

#269 Stan Brooks on 10.18.17 at 5:29 pm
“In addition it appears there is direct conflict of interest on his Bill C27 and the work his company is doing on converting defined benefit plans to target benefit plant to detriment of millions of Canadians.”

Lots of people offer the same service. He does not have a monopoly. How is this service a detriment to millions of Canadians?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNYjlb4ve6U

#274 Triplenet on 10.18.17 at 6:21 pm

#224 Ogopogo
Just exactly what scummy profession were you involved in before you retired to your sub-tertiary Okanagan location?
PS – dont go postal on me.

#275 Lost...but not leased on 10.18.17 at 6:22 pm

#257 Damifino

To clarify….
……..some of our fellow posters have monikers/names and views that clearly seem to relish a major collapse and all the carnage that comes with it.

..in my camp…we bought at one of the worst times possible…in mid 1990’s…the RE market sucked, made a rather grinding offer on what was a good house that sat on the market ….we certainly avoided the lemming herd and never looked back.

Old saying about banks….when its sunny out they have all sorts of umbrellas to give out…but when it rains……good luck.

#276 Voice of Experience on 10.18.17 at 6:30 pm

#231 Braj on 10.18.17 at 1:21 pm

:( I am sorry to hear that. Sometimes a reflection on our lives is necessary to appreciate what truly have..only a short time on this Earth full of joys, sorrows, and growing pains.
*************************************
I’ve had lots of time for reflection lately waiting in various hospital units for tests, examinations, procedures etc. And you know what has struck me? The fact that, except for meals and parking, we haven’t had to pay one red cent (so far anyway) for any of those really expensive items.

By contrast a man we know in New Jersey has had to make a number of hard choices to find the least expensive alternative for those same tests, examinations and procedures. Yes he has insurance but it doesn’t begin to cover the several hundred thousand dollars his cancer will cost him in the long run.

So I was reflecting that, while my husband and I are paying some taxes toward his treatment, so are other Ontarians contributing. From the bottom of my heart I thank each and every single one of you and all the people you know too!!!!!!!!!!!!

F70ON

#277 Lost...but not leased on 10.18.17 at 6:33 pm

#261 Long Time lurker

Re Drug cartel,opiods etc.
…I know this post is due for a change to new topic…but I’ll comment on Big Pharma, Rockefeller “Flexner Report”…and “Foundations”…all rolled into one

#278 Patrick on 10.18.17 at 6:35 pm

Let’s see higher requirement, FOR UNINSURED MORTGAGE 20%+ mortgage. Looks like the government needs more money out of CMHC, I think this measure will not have much effect.

Here is the scenario: Sorry sir you want to put 20% down, you don’t pass our stress test. Now just put 19% down and buy the CMHC insurance, green is a go!

#279 bubu on 10.18.17 at 6:37 pm

“Broadening the stress test will likely further slow housing activity, depressing demand by 5 per cent to 10 per cent once implemented, Brian DePratto, an economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank wrote in a note. Price growth will also suffer, with the changes expected to exert a drag of between 2 per cent and 4 per cent over 2018.”

2-4% is nothing.. Why so many concerns?

#280 Lost...but not leased on 10.18.17 at 6:38 pm

Turdeau and Morneau….

Perhaps Morneau is like a “Big 6” bank…too big to fail…or it takes a lot of others down as well.

When I see T2…I see his mommy..not alleged father Pierre….as Pierre ruled like a real ruthless dictator.

#281 Spock#2 on 10.18.17 at 6:59 pm

Lost…but not leased, “When I see T2…I see his mommy..not alleged father Pierre” you mean his mommy who was a rolling stoned?

#282 Lost...but not leased on 10.18.17 at 7:30 pm

Spock #2

I could say a lot of things re: Maggie…Pierre, Justin and “beards”…

For sake of argument..given the globalist agenda, T1 came out of nowhere to become PM….at a time /era that was ripe for such a Manchurian Candidate to set the template to sow seeds to ultimately throw Canada into a dysfunctional set of balkan states.

I can recall “Maggie” and her Rolling Stones interludes…what a disgrace she was…and one wonders WTF?”’ till one understands “brood mares” and the start of bloodline dynasties. Birthing “heir”Justin was probably the #1 goal….the rest were simply bonuses.

…Maggie was a “Sinclair”…quite the bloodline in history….the issue is..can Canada tolerate another generation of Trudeau?

#283 maxx on 10.18.17 at 8:02 pm

#67 Lost…but not Leased on 10.17.17 at 7:28 pm

“Marc GarnEAU never went into space..,…”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Garneau

#284 Ponnaps on 10.18.17 at 10:31 pm

Thanks Voice of Experience..

Sorry to hear about your husband.. hope he gets back to the best of health soon..

– P

#285 Vprime on 10.18.17 at 10:49 pm

Agree with some of the posters these rule changes will have minimal impact in the GTA. There is a lot of money out there and we are competing with global capital in some areas more than others. The speculators are not as active but will return. What people aren’t talking about is China – has demand from China decreased? From what I have seen it has decreased but they are still buying. This is a temporary pause but prices will start going back up.

#286 rainclouds on 10.19.17 at 11:19 am

BC: Scam Capitol of Canada

http://vancouversun.com/news/national/charges-laid-in-probe-of-alleged-b-c-drug-cash-money-laundering

And in other BC News :

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/democracy-watch-appeals-b-c-supreme-court-decision-not-to-review-christy-clark-conflict-of-interest-case-1.4360617

Perhaps the Courts can address some of the irregularities evident in BC affecting RE and the political scene in the “wild west” while we wait patiently for the socialists to implement promised housing cooling measures.