Here we go?

Well, get ready. This could be it.

Media Advisory

October 16, 2017

Superintendent of Financial Institutions Jeremy Rudin will be available to the media regarding the release of an important publication, by teleconference at 8:30 a.m. (EDT) on Tuesday, October 17, 2017.

This availability is for accredited media only. Accreditation requests should be submitted to Annik Faucher at [email protected] by 8:00 p.m. today (October 16). The dial-in information for the media availability will be provided to journalists following accreditation.

When the US housing market blew up, taking the middle class with it, some people foresaw the disaster. Hedge fund guy Steve Eisman was one of them. “Things are ripe for a pretty severe correction,” he says. This time he’s talking about Canada.

The ‘Big Short’ player (read the book) is the latest in a string of Americans and others to come here, look around, shake their heads in amazed disgust, and pronounce us pooched. The catalyst, he adds, will be the Plus-2 universal stress test, now scheduled to arrive with the snow (and possibly announced Tuesday morning).

To remind: the regulator (OSFI) is weirded out that banks have huge numbers of uninsured mortgages made to people who lied about their down payments. After newbies with less than 20% down were required to pass a stress test proving they could handle rising rates, borrowers looted the Bank of Mom or got loans from cheesy subprime lenders so they could avoid it. CMHC insured loans fell by over 40% but real estate activity or borrowing did not. It became clear bank risk was shooting higher as a result.

So, OSFI will soon require everybody to qualify for every mortgage at current rates + 2%, regardless of how much they plunk down on a property. Mortgage dudes figure this will reduce overall credit by about a fifth. Realtors fear the same effect on prices. Eisman agrees with me. A slow melt’s coming.

“Canada is not going to crash,” he told a certain pathetic business news network on Monday, “but it hasn’t had a credit cycle in 25 years. I think they’re about to have one.” He also says CIBC is the most vulnerable – no bank failure coming, but earnings will decline.

Seems reasonable. Death by regulation. How Canadian.

Adam Button agrees. He’s a currency analysts and central bank-watcher who argues rates can’t really rise a lot because inflation’s kaput in a world of globalization, free labour movement, Amazon, driverless vehicles, AI and Adele. Besides, if the Bank of Canada were to crank its benchmark rate too much, the entire country would fall apart.

“The pain would be catastrophic,” he writes on a mortgage industry site. “Rates will never rise to beyond 5% in Canada [because] far too many people wouldn’t be able to make their payments. The government’s last round of new mortgage rules was a noble effort to reign in the housing market, but the horse has already left the million-dollar barn. Many borrowers would be forced to sell their homes, and those who could afford to stay would have their spending power cut dramatically.”

So, mortgage rates now in the 3% range have room to swell, but we’re not going to see 2% added. Not that it matters – given what OSFI is planning.

“A two-percentage-point rate increase on a $500,000-mortgage boosts the payment by at least $500 per month. A 5.00% rate on a million-dollar mortgage means $50,000 spent per year in interest alone. That’s a devastating bite out of a household’s disposable income, which is crucial for sustaining the economy.”

So the blunt instrument of interest rates will be laid aside, he argues, in favour of what regulation will accomplish – a slow choking-off of credit that would likely create a multi-year devolving of house values, walking us back from the brink of a US-style nuclear event.

“The Bank of Canada has already gone too far. The two solutions governments are trying first are the two things they always do in a market crisis: blame foreigners and blame the speculators.

“So far the execution has been sloppy, but politicians have sent a powerful signal that they are now part of the equation. So don’t worry about interest rates, worry about what’s coming from regulators.”

What a week. And it’s only started. Justin Trudeau propping up his wavering, deer-in-the-headlights finance guy at a major media event. The feds dropping the small biz tax rate to divert people from the withering new hit to come. More key announcements promised within days. And now the surly bank cop’s regulatory slaughter of residential real estate.

Who needs Trump for theatrics? We have our own drama queens.

315 comments ↓

#1 SCM on 10.16.17 at 5:39 pm

Oh no the Big 5 banks might only make $30 BILLION combined in profits instead of $35 BILLION.

Cry me a river while I play the world’s tiniest violin.

Let it all burn, I say. Couldn’t happen to a worse group of people. This country deserves what’s coming to it.

#2 Pete on 10.16.17 at 5:39 pm

Looks like small biz pays much less then the working guy and this doesn’t include income splitting? Is this right?

http://www.creditfinanceplus.com/calculators/calculate-corporate-income-tax-canada.php

https://easytaxca.com/payroll-calculator-2016/

#3 Shane Brantham on 10.16.17 at 5:40 pm

Time to sell Canada and Buy USA?

#4 Pete on 10.16.17 at 5:43 pm

Garth can you do a mock example just so us tax slaves can se we are not doing all the heavy lifting. I’m really curious to see what an example would look like. Small business talk a lot of hardship but haven’t produced an example for all to see. Makes me think they cry poor but pay very little.

#5 Retired in Kelowna on 10.16.17 at 5:44 pm

I noticed Trudeau and Morneau did not address the issue of taxing the hell out of retaining earnings within a small corporation for future use during a tight year or two. What’s with that?
How in God’s name did we end up with this guy running the country? Scary.
I saw a good headline the other day. “If you voted for Trudeau you owe me an apology”.

#6 Reximus on 10.16.17 at 5:46 pm

This is great ammo for the Tories

#7 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.16.17 at 5:47 pm

Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

No money for you realtors. Don’t pick up that phone. It’s not a client its a creditor. :-)

Happy HAPPY Housing Crash Everyone!

#8 Jungle on 10.16.17 at 5:48 pm

The FED is doing reverse QE, more pressure on bond prices = yields go up.

(this means more expensive fixed mortgage rates)

#9 Waiting Never Pays on 10.16.17 at 5:48 pm

So in summary, rates will not rise enough to cause any damage beyond those last into the ponzi housing scheme because ‘too many people will be hurt’ and ‘globalization.’

Seems this was the argument of many posters here, however crudely voiced, for the past half decade or so – which was routinely mocked.

In essence, if you got in before the last 30% rise over the last two years in places like TO, Vancouver, and Victoria, you will be fine……

Doesn’t seem like waiting to buy because of overvaluations for years was the smart choice….

#10 SCM on 10.16.17 at 5:52 pm

Loblaw to lay off 500 office staff in drive to cut costs
Executives and managers will lose jobs in Calgary, Toronto, Winnipeg, Halifax, Montreal
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/loblaw-layoffs-1.4357245

Another 500 hard working Canadian men and women out on the unemployment line to satisfy shareholders.

Makes me sick that people cheer for layoffs, ruined families and destroyed lives just so that their stock can go up a point.

Loblaw Companies Ltd made $983 MILLION in PROFITS last year.

The Boomer/Conservative/Reaganomics ideology of being completely subservient to corporate interests and the wealthy elites has been a giant, colossal failure.

#11 Darryl on 10.16.17 at 5:52 pm

here’s hoping

#12 Suede on 10.16.17 at 5:53 pm

And the cradle… will rock!!!

-VH

#13 Duvan on 10.16.17 at 5:53 pm

It became clear bank risk was shooting higher as a result.
================
Not sure why banks can’t just tighten credits on their own, without waiting for OSFI to come up with new rules?

#14 NoName on 10.16.17 at 5:54 pm

I remember when i stumble upon lady that took that photo, it was a this photo that cut my eye.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/11008866284/in/dateposted/

So if you guys like childer dogs and animals, her flickr acc. is amaizing, worth spending few min and browse photos.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/

#15 David on 10.16.17 at 5:56 pm

The lowering of the small business rate is a classic bait and switch. They need to make up the lost revenue somehow. This isn’t over by a long shot. And guess what, they won’t lower the rates when the time comes.

#16 Penny Henny on 10.16.17 at 5:56 pm

Oh Garth, you are my drama queen.

#17 RudyGQ on 10.16.17 at 5:56 pm

Regarding recent tax reform policies:
Well how about that! The voter’s protests were heard…sorta. The Prime Minister actually listened to the Canadian people….this time, for now, kinda, maybe, until such time as the heat wears off or its politically expedient to revisit. The tax reform measures was only a first volley to sense the pain threshold of small business Canadians. So it didn’t work on the first try, big deal, we will just repackage, restructure, rename, remarket the same cow dung under a new sexy title and voila we have a new solution. This is politics 202—a little more advanced than the politics 101 class as there is an additional layer of sophistication that is required at this level.
For these ‘rescinded’ tax measures to hold, voters must be steadfast in their position and what they demand of their government. This is not over until the government has exhausted every resource/tactic to e
enact their tax agenda perhaps under a different alias.

Whether you are on the left or right side of the spectrum, it is generally good when government bends to the voices of a free people. Stay vigilant fellow voters and confront your members of parliament on any policy you do not find acceptable. It is your right, it holds those in office more accountable and a wider participation in the political process is a more representative form of democracy.

#18 ILoveCharts on 10.16.17 at 5:58 pm

Don’t read the book. Watch the movie.

Say what you will, prices will keep marching up in core markets. The loophole through the OSFI rules are huge. Just walk over to your local credit union because they won’t be touched. At VanCity they even have a program to help people who can’t scrap together any down payment at all. The only way to save our economy is to crank up immigration and most of the new folks want to live in the cities.

The OSFI knows they have to play carefully. Anything they do will have a disproportionate impact on locals. Watch for more government handouts to mitigate any impact.

Besides, the OSFI is only going to implement a 1% stress test.

#19 conan on 10.16.17 at 5:58 pm

So a multi year melt in RE prices? Does that mean 10 percent a year for the next 3 + years?

Real Estate change is real.

#20 Trumpocalypse2017 on 10.16.17 at 5:59 pm

Loblaws, Shopper Drug Mart laying off hundreds.

Trump about to visit the DMZ. Might as well paint a big target on himself.

Brinks guards about to go on strike across Canada, crippling ATMs everywhere.

Economic freefall just as the world fires nukes?

PREPARE.

#21 Gainfully Unemployed on 10.16.17 at 6:02 pm

Can’t disagree with SCM on that one

#22 Paracho on 10.16.17 at 6:03 pm

It will be interesting . I believe rates will go up with and following US rates…. but slowly . Regulations will add to the devaluation of Toronto and Vancouver Real Estate markets .

#23 Victor V on 10.16.17 at 6:07 pm

“Great Toronto Area real estate sales down 32% during the first 2 weeks of Oct over last year. Freehold down 34% and condos down 30%”

– John Pasalis, President, Realosophy Realty

https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/919880772550647808

#24 Md on 10.16.17 at 6:07 pm

Ok ok ok…..so…someone explain to me what the heck is going on. What? No crash? Ok fine, what is this slow melt? How slow? How much melt? ……to many questions not being answer. But there’s a lot of implying going on here.

#25 Rexx Rock on 10.16.17 at 6:15 pm

These new rules will hurt the new buyer with low wages.Here in Victoria or Vancouver those rules are meaning less.For all those Loblaws workers,come to Victoria or Vancouver but you’ll have to work a full time and a part time job to barely make it.Things are going to be a little less rosey in Canada if more layoffs come.

#26 MF on 10.16.17 at 6:17 pm

So we are done with “rising rates” at a pathetic 1%. So much for all that wasted emotion/hope. But it’s not surprising. Most of us knew these idiots didn’t have it in them. Oh well.

Everyone who bought already (leverage or not) is still looking like a genius, unfortunately.

So basically it’s house prices will not rise as fast (or at all) but will continue to be unaffordable for most without excessive borrowing.

That means us new buyers will still have to borrow big to buy their shoebox condos, and this will keep demand for the lower end. How can this not result in higher prices for move up buyers? How does this help? It doesn’t.

Interest rates staying in the ditch + continued demand will mean higher prices in my opinion. OSFI is nothing but hot air IMO.

MF

#27 Dan.t on 10.16.17 at 6:19 pm

About time Canada got a dose of reality. I guess that’s why every political party to date has sprinted away from doing anything meaningful to rein in speculation and Canada house horniness. It is the only economy. Because it hits the whole country. Look at the NDP in BC. Canada is a land of house humpers. Plain and simple. The only thing that matters.

Nobody sees it coming, not sure how that is even possible but when you only have one reference point, ie. Canada is the centre of the world, everyone wants to live here, there is no supply, foreigners will buy all our houses, interest rates will never rise, my house is my retirement, and hey, “it’s only debt” then I guess it becomes self-fulfilling.

Everyone else, observing the situation from outside shake their heads because the world is big and 90% if Canadians have no clue what you get for the same price as a run down semi in Burnaby or the outskirts of TO in other countries. Hint, probably a mansion with 2 swimming pools and better weather.

I gave up long ago. Like the saying goes “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”, meaning don’t try to call tops or bottoms and let the market do what it will do. This gasbag should have blown long ago but… it defies logic. But the longer it goes on the worse the correction will be. But who knows. I guess we will see if it really is different this time. Like I hear all the time in BC.

Bet soon a lot of over leveraged Canadians will be wishing they had a nice trust fund kicking around somewhere, maybe write T2 or the finance minister, bet they can sympathise with you.

Don’t forget to thank them for going after those darn small business tax cheats and thank them for leaving all those people in BC and all across Canada that fairly don’t declared rental income alone. After all it’s real estate. You can lie, cheat, steal, con, and nothing happens.

#28 ANON on 10.16.17 at 6:20 pm

#24 Md on 10.16.17 at 6:07 pm

Ok ok ok…..so…someone explain to me what the heck is going on. What? No crash? Ok fine, what is this slow melt?

“Slow melt” is a code name for cr*sh… You can’t say cr*sh on teevee.

#29 Dan.t on 10.16.17 at 6:20 pm

#7 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.16.17 at 5:47 pm
Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

No money for you realtors. Don’t pick up that phone. It’s not a client its a creditor. :-)

Happy HAPPY Housing Crash Everyone!
—————————

Haha, just spit my beer out, that was good.

#30 Spock on 10.16.17 at 6:21 pm

#1 SCM on 10.16.17 at 5:39 pm

This is the only place you will be first in your life.

Canada will be a much better place without negative folks like you.

These policies should have been implemented long time back to also protect the consumer from over leveraging. But you will not see that from your tinted glasses.

The banks run a business. They make money for the shareholders. That may be too hard for you to understand but that is how business works in the real world.

This country deserves SCM to go to another country and life off their welfare system.

———————————————-

#1 SCM on 10.16.17 at 5:39 pm
Oh no the Big 5 banks might only make $30 BILLION combined in profits instead of $35 BILLION.

Cry me a river while I play the world’s tiniest violin.

Let it all burn, I say. Couldn’t happen to a worse group of people. This country deserves what’s coming to it.

#31 mark on 10.16.17 at 6:23 pm

To remind: the regulator (OSFI) is weirded out that banks have huge numbers of uninsured mortgages made to people who lied about their down payments.

I don’t know what banks your dealing with but when i did paper work(5 Years ago) for mortgage application the bank(RBC) wanted a paper trail of exactly where your down payment came from, so i don’t know how you can “Lie about your down payment?”

Unless things have changed and they(the banks) have closed there eyes to where your down payment is coming from, doubt it though!

Maybe it was your flip-flops. — Garth

#32 Spock on 10.16.17 at 6:27 pm

No one is cheering the layoffs. You are assuming in your sick head that people are happy that these folks are let go. I notice you also included the boomers at the end among those cheering on these layoffs.

You should be on your way to getting banned again shortly.

I personally feel very bad for these 500 folks and their families (I am sure others on this board do also). Such is life. But this is how you find out that every action has a consequence in the real world.

Businesses are not around so that they can create jobs and run at a loss despite what you / T2 / Bill think. They are there to make money for the owners.

If costs are going up and they are (minimum wage one of the factors other than hydro / property taxes for commercial buildings etc.) – then this is what is going to happen.

Unfortunately, in such layoffs the work performance of the employee has little to do whether they are let go or not. :-(

You did not experience the recession from 1990 – 1997. Maybe you will get a chance now (assuming you have a job).

If you do not like the layoffs start a business of your own and experience an even more exciting life.

Good luck to those who are losing their jobs including the ones at Sears.

—————————–

#10 SCM on 10.16.17 at 5:52 pm
Loblaw to lay off 500 office staff in drive to cut costs
Executives and managers will lose jobs in Calgary, Toronto, Winnipeg, Halifax, Montreal
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/loblaw-layoffs-1.4357245

Another 500 hard working Canadian men and women out on the unemployment line to satisfy shareholders.

Makes me sick that people cheer for layoffs, ruined families and destroyed lives just so that their stock can go up a point.

Loblaw Companies Ltd made $983 MILLION in PROFITS last year.

The Boomer/Conservative/Reaganomics ideology of being completely subservient to corporate interests and the wealthy elites has been a giant, colossal failure.

#33 Debtslavecreator on 10.16.17 at 6:28 pm

Rules if passed as proposed are good but passing all of them now in the midst of a sharp correction is beyond madness. They should pass one rule after 3-6 months of the RE market stabilizing then wait and if the market is stable pass the next and so on
We’ve had an historic and extreme debt bubble and to pass these all now is like lighting a match in a room full of natural gas
If you need any evidence that these people are useless you’re likely about to see it if they do announce the implementation of these rules Tuesday
Say hello to the worst correction in Canadian market history with median GTA prices down 40% or so from the peak of March 17, a sharp devastating recession , the CAD likely dropping to under .60 by Q4 2018, and explosive property tax and other tax increases
The so called middle class government will leave as the biggest destroyer of middle class Canada ever known
Serves all who voted for these goons right

#34 Spock on 10.16.17 at 6:29 pm

The movie does not do justice to the book. Do both but do not miss on reading the book.

——————————————–
#18 ILoveCharts on 10.16.17 at 5:58 pm

Don’t read the book. Watch the movie.

#35 Cecil Henry on 10.16.17 at 6:32 pm

How can someone making even a high salary, like $130,000/year afford a million dollar home.

With $50,000 in interest, and $80,000 after tax, that’s just $30,000/year to live and pay principal on the house.

How is that not insane??? Let it all burn, it so awful.

#36 AGuyInVancouver on 10.16.17 at 6:33 pm

“Rates will never rise to beyond 5% in Canada [because] far too many people wouldn’t be able to make their payments.”

Really? That strikes me as famous last words. I posted a link earlier to that FP story about parallels between 1964 and today. Rates have to stay low, until they don’t. Add to that this sory in today’s G&M, inflationary pressures are building:
“… For some companies, finding enough good people is becoming a significant challenge. The intensity of labour shortages is now at its highest level since the 2008-09 recession, as companies report growing problems finding qualified workers, particularly in tourism, construction and technology…”
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canadian-businesses-still-bullish-despite-us-worries-rising-rates-boc/article36598347/

Now if only the government can resist interfering by allowing in a flood of TFWs. Let the Canadian market determine wages!

#37 Post on 10.16.17 at 6:35 pm

Admittedly I don’t know much about obtaining mortgages east of the Alberta border, but it’s easy peasy to obtain a mortgage in BC without going to the big banks. Credit Unions are plentiful here in BC. There are over 40 and they’re just chomping at the bit.

https://creditunionsofbc.com/list/

#38 Go away scm on 10.16.17 at 6:40 pm

Scm

Stop talking about boomers in any of your posts

Go away.

#39 Post on 10.16.17 at 6:41 pm

… I forgot to add that BC credit unions are not impacted by any changed regulations that OSFI announces. It’s already been posted here. And they already have a big chunk of the mortgage business.

#40 AK on 10.16.17 at 6:43 pm

“Rates will never rise to beyond 5% in Canada [because] far too many people wouldn’t be able to make their payments.”
——————————————————————–
Get ready for 0.50 cent bush league Loonie…

#41 paul on 10.16.17 at 6:47 pm

4 Pete on 10.16.17 at 5:43 pm

Garth can you do a mock example just so us tax slaves can se we are not doing all the heavy lifting. I’m really curious to see what an example would look like. Small business talk a lot of hardship but haven’t produced an example for all to see. Makes me think they cry poor but pay very little.
—————————————————————–
Go one better take all of your funds mortgage your house. Start a business like Boston Pizza 1.75 milion do all the lease hold improvements,have a job fair and have 300 applicants for 60 jobs. paid training for the staff at $14 to $18 an hour plus workers comp,vacation pay, sick days health care, CPP, E.I
Then you will see how little the owner makes!

#42 MSM-Free Zone on 10.16.17 at 6:48 pm

“….He also says CIBC is the most vulnerable – no bank failure coming, but earnings will decline……”
_____________________________

No surprise there, CIBC has always been the redneck cowboy of the Big Six.

#43 Booombust on 10.16.17 at 6:52 pm

#25 Rexx Rock

Are you kidding? Prices are already tumbling in Metro Vancouver…have you seen “My Realty Check.ca”, lately?

Give your head a shake.

#44 paul on 10.16.17 at 6:52 pm

#24 Md on 10.16.17 at 6:07 pm

Ok ok ok…..so…someone explain to me what the heck is going on. What? No crash? Ok fine, what is this slow melt? How slow? How much melt? ……to many questions not being answer. But there’s a lot of implying going on here.
—————————————————————–
Easy prices are down 15 to18% since March.

#45 Andrew Woburn on 10.16.17 at 6:55 pm

Is the Smoking Man a front for Noam Chomsky?

“Education makes you stupid”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR8hfUkmk6Q

#46 MSM-Free Zone on 10.16.17 at 6:56 pm

“…Seems reasonable. Death by regulation. How Canadian……”
_________________________

Death? Hardly, more like fluoride for self-induced tooth decay.

Beats the alternative, Death by de-regulation, how American. (As any deplorable middle-class survivor of the GFC will tell you).

#47 Andrew Woburn on 10.16.17 at 6:58 pm

GOOGLE’S LEARNING SOFTWARE LEARNS TO WRITE LEARNING SOFTWARE

Oh, good.

https://www.wired.com/story/googles-learning-software-learns-to-write-learning-software?mbid=nl_101317_daily

#48 Victor V on 10.16.17 at 6:59 pm

For those who haven’t seen the Big Short, here is Steve Eisman in a teaser:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZTFNizSNGs

#49 Will on 10.16.17 at 6:59 pm

Just a tid bit to show you how easy it is to buy a house in Toronto. My wife, who is suffering from postpartum, our son is six months, went to stay with her mom. Her mom thought it a good idea to go house hunting with my wife. 2 weeks latter, an offer was made, 3 weeks latter offer was accepted and financing secured. When I found this out, I lost my mind. How could a women on maternity leave with 25,000 in savings purchase a home for 800,00? Well in Toronto it’s easy. Borrow [email protected]%
Go to lender b and secure a private mortgage 22,000 set up fee and 9%. Interest only due each month, 1 year open. Then a renovation loan is in order. Remember bank b thinks you have equity. 150,000 @ 10%, do a Reno get property re-valued at 1,100,100, apply for a loan for bank, cibc pretty easy. Pay all lenders back. Her mom has done this many times, she has 6 million in property, never worked in three year, lives of equity of propert. Works well unless values fall. In the end I found out, wife pulled out of deal lost 25,000. Her no bought property to avoid us getting sued. Wonder how widespread this is?

#50 Pete on 10.16.17 at 7:05 pm

#41 paul

Is that what you did? Any average type example

#51 The Great Gazoo on 10.16.17 at 7:05 pm

#26 mark

“I don’t know what banks your dealing with but when i did paper work(5 Years ago) for mortgage application the bank(RBC) wanted a paper trail of exactly where your down payment came from, so i don’t know how you can “Lie about your down payment?””

Really? Years ago I gave my Brother a loan that he used to get his down payment high so he could avoid paying the CMHC fees. He just put the cash in the bank. To my knowledge no one at the bank ever asked where the money came from and if they did, he would have just told them it was a gift. He paid me back many years later.

#52 SCM on 10.16.17 at 7:05 pm

DELETED

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.17 at 7:06 pm

@#1 &#10 SCM

Ahh but you’re missing the point.

Those BIG FAT JUICY DIVIDENDS just keep roooollllling in!

Boomers, Millenials…who cares….lay ’em all off I say!
Just pave paradise and put up a parking lot and keep those BIG FAT JUICY DIVIDENDS roooooollllling in.

Moo Hoo haaa haaaa haaaaaaaa!!!!!!!

(That was my Dr Evil Hallowe’en laugh…..did you like it?)

#54 SCM on 10.16.17 at 7:06 pm

#32 Spock on 10.16.17 at 6:27 pm
No one is cheering the layoffs. You are assuming in your sick head that people are happy that these folks are let go. I notice you also included the boomers at the end among those cheering on these layoffs.

————————-

I said “Makes me sick that people cheer for layoffs, ruined families and destroyed lives just so that their stock can go up a point.”

Nice try fake news boy.

#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.17 at 7:10 pm

@#29 Dan.t

Total agreement.
Damn waste of good beer though!

#56 Stone on 10.16.17 at 7:11 pm

“They” say rates can’t rise. Rates can’t rise beyond 5% in Canada. Really? Is it because Canada dictates world policy? It has so much influence that “the powers that be” will simply say, “Ok. Since it’s not good for Canada, we won’t do it. There, there Canadians, do you feel better?” How silly. If the rest of the world says “jump”, Canada will simply ask, “how high?” and “please sir, may I have some more?”

Rates will rise, the bond markets will go along and that will be that. Yes, there will be a lot of pain so best you prepare a cushion for it. Those who prepare will reap the opportunities and the rewards. And if it isn’t too painful, all the better. In the meantime, enjoy your investment portfolio distributions and don’t panic.

#57 SCM on 10.16.17 at 7:14 pm

#37 Post on 10.16.17 at 6:35 pm

Couldn’t agree more. Credit unions are the way to go. If Garth allows me to say, Parama is a great credit union in Toronto. I’m not affiliated in any way, just a happy customer. Not a fan of big dog Meridian, but there are lots of great options out there. The nationalistic credit unions (Polish, Lithuanian, Latvian, Portuguese, etc) are all pretty good.

#58 SCM on 10.16.17 at 7:15 pm

#52 SCM on 10.16.17 at 7:05 pm
DELETED

Spock can rant and rave and cry about my posts but I can’t tell him to go for a walk outside and calm down?

Language. — Garth

#59 We Need It on 10.16.17 at 7:16 pm

Unfortunately the regulations are necessary, people are gorging themselves on debt with No self control. Crap homes are still selling for ridiculous prices, who can really afford a million dollar house, yet they are still selling. It’s like the drunk at the bar, eventually the bartender has to cut him off, that’s what’s happening, people need to be cut off before they debt themselves into oblivion. So sad, people are living waaaaay beyond their means. Our family income is just below the 1% range and we rent. We have lots of cash, lots of investments and the freedom to say we owe no one anything! We travel, enjoy evenings out, living a blessed lifestyle. We rent a lovely home, in a lovely area for an absolute steal! When something breaks, we call the landlord, who we believe pickled themselves in debt to buy this place and we are living here stress free.

#60 SCM on 10.16.17 at 7:16 pm

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.17 at 7:06 pm

This is indeed the boomer/conservative logic. No doubt about it.

#61 David on 10.16.17 at 7:18 pm

Garth: Do you support the OSFI move? Y or N? Australia has a floor rate of 7% fyi.

#62 Dolce Vita on 10.16.17 at 7:18 pm

Adam Button is myopic. The Bank of Canada is not the Bank of Real Estate. It sets monetary policy for the entire nation not just a segment of it and it affects variable rates, not fixed.

As for the American Big Short person, clearly he hasn’t looked at Canadian RE historical price indices. When they crash, they crash in 1 to 2 years, no slow burn. Again, history and no, it hasn’t been different in the past, nor will it be now:

https://i.imgur.com/uzinX0L.jpg

The point is that historically and in Canada, prices drops, corrections, crashes in RE are not slow burning, they are relatively quick, as in 1 to 2 years. Just look at 416 over the past 6 months…nothing slow there other than sales at present.

There seem to be more headwinds for Cdn. RE than there is any good news nowadays.

CRA coming down hard in YVR RE, B20 stress test, large retail sector job lay offs, onerous NAFTA demands by the Americans (auto so far, if that is any indication look out dairy, lumber etc.), Liberals determined to tax small business people more and some one mentioned US Fed QE which will push fixed interest rates up regardless of what the BoC does.

I know, doomer. But to me, it does not look good for RE in terms of price appreciation. If anything, prices will drop and fast. Add to that the psychology of what is going on in the news, this exacerbates price drops.

By how much, who knows?

#63 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.16.17 at 7:20 pm

The weather outside is frightful.
Realtor screams sound delightful.
And since OSFI rules are coming for you.
Let’s SHYSTERS scream! Let them scream! Let them scream!

The crash doesn’t show signs of stoppin’
And I brought some corn for poppin’
The housing lights are turned down low
Let housing crash, let it crash, let it crash.
It’s going to be a Happy HAPPY Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#64 Ronaldo on 10.16.17 at 7:21 pm

#10 SCM

”Makes me sick that people cheer for layoffs, ruined families and destroyed lives just so that their stock can go up a point.”
——————————————————————
Can you provide examples people who are cheering for these things you state or are you just experiencing diarrhea of the mouth once again? Maybe you should take a valium and relax a bit.

#65 Chico on 10.16.17 at 7:21 pm

#4 Pete on 10.16.17 at 5:43 pm

Garth can you do a mock example just so us tax slaves can se we are not doing all the heavy lifting. I’m really curious to see what an example would look like. Small business talk a lot of hardship but haven’t produced an example for all to see. Makes me think they cry poor but pay very little.

___________

The problem with your logic is that you fail to take into account what percentage of those who are successful have failed before. Rare is the business owner who makes it good every time they venture out and try something new. Entrepreneurs risk and fail, and risk and fail, and then folks like you think they ought to be measured by the exact same standard as an employee, who takes no risk. That makes no sense.

If you want an example of the hardships they face, leave your cubicle or work station, and talk with the owner of your pizza joint, hair salon, tax office, law office, plumber, franchisee, etc.

#66 SCM on 10.16.17 at 7:22 pm

#36 AGuyInVancouver on 10.16.17 at 6:33 pm
Now if only the government can resist interfering by allowing in a flood of TFWs. Let the Canadian market determine wages!

———————–

If only….

The Liberals are even worse on this issue than Harper was. Sad to say. And he was a total disaster.

#67 Stone on 10.16.17 at 7:22 pm

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.17 at 7:06 pm
@#1 &#10 SCM

Ahh but you’re missing the point.

Those BIG FAT JUICY DIVIDENDS just keep roooollllling in!

Boomers, Millenials…who cares….lay ’em all off I say!
Just pave paradise and put up a parking lot and keep those BIG FAT JUICY DIVIDENDS roooooollllling in.

Moo Hoo haaa haaaa haaaaaaaa!!!!!!!

(That was my Dr Evil Hallowe’en laugh…..did you like it?)

——-

Careful, don’t unsettle SCM now. He might go ballistic and … do nothing … other than post more spiteful deranged commentary while we all get a good laugh. Are you really prepared for more laughs?

#68 Spock on 10.16.17 at 7:24 pm

SCM:

You are showing more and more signs of delusion, low intellect and of blowing up. Looks like already one of your posts was deleted. Matter of time to beat yesterdays record of two.

The cheering does not need to make you sick. You seem to be already in the head.

Please show us proof where people are cheering for these layoffs, ruined families and destroyed lives for the one point.

You can make statements but I am asking you to show the facts backing up the statement like you claim you do.

Now I am waiting for your proof about boomers not giving back (which you are ignoring) and also this one:

Proof of the cheering once again for the layoffs from Loblaws / Ruined Families and Destroyed lives.

In earnest we wait.

—————————-

#54 SCM on 10.16.17 at 7:06 pm
#32 Spock on 10.16.17 at 6:27 pm
No one is cheering the layoffs. You are assuming in your sick head that people are happy that these folks are let go. I notice you also included the boomers at the end among those cheering on these layoffs.

————————-

I said “Makes me sick that people cheer for layoffs, ruined families and destroyed lives just so that their stock can go up a point.”

Nice try fake news boy.

#69 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 10.16.17 at 7:25 pm

There will be workarounds to any new rules, credit unions being one…Prices won’t go down much if at all, the average family with the average income is still priced out of the sfh market, maybe they will be able to afford a condo. Prices will not come down meaningfully until interest rates actually do go up and tax free capital gains are not available to foreign and domestic speculators and money launderers. If interest rates do not rise in unison with the US we can rename the loonie and call it the Northern Peso.

#70 MSM-Free Zone on 10.16.17 at 7:26 pm

#30 Spock on 10.16.17 at 6:21 pm
______________________________

Myself, pushing 60, I’ve never had to experience the challenges faced by SCM and his/her similar-aged colleagues today. Uncertainty in this day and age is an understatement, as my own kids will undoubtedly concur.

Given the above average writing/research displayed by SCM, I’m guessing he/she is quite gainfully employed.

The message is quite valid (sans Boomer references), although the delivery may be slightly off-key at times.

#71 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.16.17 at 7:29 pm

“#10 SCM on 10.16.17 at 5:52 pm
Loblaw to lay off 500 office staff in drive to cut costs
Executives and managers will lose jobs in Calgary, Toronto, Winnipeg, Halifax, Montreal
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/loblaw-layoffs-1.4357245

Another 500 hard working Canadian men and women out on the unemployment line to satisfy shareholders.

Makes me sick that people cheer for layoffs, ruined families and destroyed lives just so that their stock can go up a point.

Loblaw Companies Ltd made $983 MILLION in PROFITS last year.

The Boomer/Conservative/Reaganomics ideology of being completely subservient to corporate interests and the wealthy elites has been a giant, colossal failure.”

SCM, are you simply clueless or what?

It’s called being competitive and ensuring that profits remain similar to (if not greater than) prior years.

You can blame these layoffs to higher minimum wage which is directly impacting the bottom lines.

You need to learn economic fundamentals more, rather than just moan, and complain. Stop with the victim mentality and go ahead and start a business.

Your pal,

BCM

#72 Spock on 10.16.17 at 7:30 pm

Not sure where the rant / rave / cry was. Anything that does not agree with you seems to be an attack .

I will do as you say. It is cold but I will wear a jacket and take a walk and do some exercise. Thank you for the suggestion.

—————————–

#58 SCM on 10.16.17 at 7:15 pm
#52 SCM on 10.16.17 at 7:05 pm
DELETED

Spock can rant and rave and cry about my posts but I can’t tell him to go for a walk outside and calm down?

Language. — Garth

#73 bellend on 10.16.17 at 7:31 pm

slow melt eh? how very stoic of the RE investing class

#74 Linda on 10.16.17 at 7:31 pm

So, if the ‘new’ rules force people to keep from spending every dime they’ve got on a mortgage, isn’t that a good thing? Would those who do still manage to qualify/purchase possibly have more disposable income in the end so that they can afford to weather any sudden interest increase (as long as it remains at 2% or less in total) or to spend on ‘disposables’ like dinner out once in a while?

Yes, it IS the nanny state. Sadly, all too many adults need a keeper financially. I’m recalling your (vanished?) post where an income of over $300,000 per annum was not enough to live on….. Eek!

#75 MilesF on 10.16.17 at 7:39 pm

#45 Andrew Woburn on 10.16.17 at 6:55 pm
Is the Smoking Man a front for Noam Chomsky?

“Education makes you stupid”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR8hfUkmk6Q
—————
It was shown here a while ago he gets his ideas from the national post and cbc.

#76 Dolce Vita on 10.16.17 at 7:39 pm

Credit Unions to the rescue, eh?

+$2 Trillion in Canadian mortgages.

Go here, scroll down to the table entitled “Credit unions outside of Quebec” and add up their entire assets (the table is in $):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_banks_and_credit_unions_in_Canada

As of 2013, RBC alone, had an assets of of $825 billion.

Credit Unions will need to find a whack of cash to offset Big 5 mortgage applicants and last I heard, they are not allowed to print up a whack of cash…which of course, they’ll need…but do not have.

#77 FredtheFred on 10.16.17 at 7:45 pm

Spent the weekend looking at a whole lot of condos, townhouses and one single family home on the east side. We’ve been looking for a while now.

Still crazy. Piles of shoes out the door and people all over. Bid sheets full. The single family house had a couple with their inspector in tow to drop a no bid offer once the open house ended. Cookie cutter two bedroom condos priced at $899K with buyers bidding them up after only one showing. However the one West side place we looked at was empty – so maybe there’s hope.

Be curious what these new rules do to the market here if anything. I can tell you that things are as crazy as ever in Vancouver for anything priced below $1.7M. Even in the period of time since we started looking it seems like condo prices have gone up 10%. Makes it seem like this thing is truly unstoppable.

#78 Millenials on 10.16.17 at 7:48 pm

The US crash was precipitated by circumstances that simply do not exist in Canada. Canada could have a major correction but to draw comparisons to that which occurred in the US is simply ignorant or malicious. I thought this blog attempted to empower people through education as opposed to fear mongering?

#79 DataMaNS on 10.16.17 at 7:53 pm

That is the funniest-looking dog I have ever seen …

#80 Entrepreneur on 10.16.17 at 7:55 pm

Eisman “Canada hasn’t had a credit cycle in 25 years” and Button “inflations kaput” and “in a world of globalization, free labour movement…” which sounds to me that these two comments should be looked at closely to avoid future up and downs within a nation.

To me the credit is being misused by consumers for whatever reason. And the banks allowed this wave of creditors to expand to a bubble. When this credit cycle hits every 25 years shouldn’t some kind of red flags be in place before this? And stop signs in place? Before all this mess happens!

Now our nation is in a credit problem but add the world of globalization and free labour movement mentioned by Button. Adding more worries to a nation.

To me this is a like when a parent says that they will wash the kids mouth out with soap if swears or smoke but the parent cuss with a cigarette hanging from the side of their mouth.

Bad parenting skills as in bad leadership rules. The people in a nation within a border come first which should be respected.

#81 down and out on 10.16.17 at 8:00 pm

Lets see $50000 more a year on million at 2% rise ,No rate rise above 5% ; will rates stay below 5 for hopefully 15 years(3 mortgage renewal cycles) till I make 50000 more a year just to give to the bank. I feel nauseated .

#82 STKAY on 10.16.17 at 8:00 pm

What a coincidence. I just had 17th re-run of the movie “The Big Short” and was just thinking of Canadian inflated housing market. I wonder if I could buy some credit default swaps to short the housing stocks!

#83 HoweStreet.com on 10.16.17 at 8:04 pm

Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
Is Owning a Home Your Best Investment?
Can Mortgage Debt be Rolled Over Fast Enough to Sustain Economy?

http://www.howestreet.com/2017/10/16/owning-a-home-best-investment/

#84 the ryguy on 10.16.17 at 8:08 pm

“blame foreigners and blame the speculators”

———————————————————-

Well Garth there is some very interesting evidence that is starting to come out regarding this topic that suggest Canada and its RE is basically a new cayman islands for world criminals.

Anyone read any of Sam Coopers stuff?

He is just starting to uncover the tip of the iceberg that is international money laundering through BCs casinos and real estate. Of the 800 or so ULTRA VIP clients @ River Rock Casino, 150 admitted to being either real estate developers or a related job title, others declined to comment or had no records.

According to Sam and his quick back of the napkin type calculations, these 150 clients account for 100’s of millions of dollars going into the casino. Thats just through River Rock btw, and thats just these 150.

Seems to me BC lotto commission has some very very shady happenings.

So 1 of 2 things has happened over the last decade and a half in BC, with a population of about 4.5 million people.

1) Tremendous job growth with incredible salaries across all sectors, leading to a ridiculous increase in the price of homes. Go ahead and insert the eye roll emoji here.

2) 100’s and 100’s (and maybe more) of millions of dirty money has been cleaned through BC’s real estate & casinos.

Which seems more likely?

(Little side note, I looked at buying an existing dollar store in the okanagan this past summer, they paid their manager $11.75/hour! How do people live on this? Regardless, she and her kind are not the ones driving prices up.)

Now I think in general that most people are mouth breathing numbskulls. So yeah I can definitely get behind the idea of speculators playing their role in this. Honestly, who can blame them? All we have seen is growth. So yeah fine, the speculators played a role too; and the average person has got a bad case of FOMO and got into the game too.

But if my and Mr Coopers suspicions are correct, than this gigantic BC bubble has been fuelled by astronomical amounts of dirty money coming in. Just think what the effect of say $250 million coming into BC RE would do? Remember BC has 4.5 million people.

You don’t have to agree and I don’t know if us regular folk will ever know the extent of this, but occams razor suggests that laundered foreign money has played a massive role in this.

Just my $.02

#85 Spock on 10.16.17 at 8:11 pm

MSM:

Having employed a lot of people over the years, it is the attitude of the employee more than the skill that I would deem as an asset. A toxic worker makes the working environment toxic for everyone else.

Every era has its challenges and so does this new generation. But how one deals with the challenges is becoming different.

For someone who could be gainfully employed, SCM is certainly trying his best to find a job in another country so he can leave this fine nation.

————————-

#70 MSM-Free Zone on 10.16.17 at 7:26 pm
#30 Spock on 10.16.17 at 6:21 pm
______________________________

Myself, pushing 60, I’ve never had to experience the challenges faced by SCM and his/her similar-aged colleagues today. Uncertainty in this day and age is an understatement, as my own kids will undoubtedly concur.

Given the above average writing/research displayed by SCM, I’m guessing he/she is quite gainfully employed.

The message is quite valid (sans Boomer references), although the delivery may be slightly off-key at times.

#86 Damifino on 10.16.17 at 8:17 pm

if the Bank of Canada were to crank its benchmark rate too much, the entire country would fall apart.
———————————–

And here I thought the mandate of the Bank of Canada was to protect the money supply. It could well be that BOC interest rates won’t rise by much, but worries about the housing market isn’t supposed to be the reason why.

Or is it?

The pain would be catastrophic
———————————–
I hate to nitpick, but the ‘event’ would be catastrophic. The ‘pain’ would be excruciating.

#87 Lost...but not leased on 10.16.17 at 8:20 pm

We are entering another hibernation mode market for RE…aka winter approaches.

Canada Re market is juiced by offshore $$$$…its global/international.

Any moves by the OSFI and there ilk, IMHO, will be tentative and exploratory,( as noted earlier in a slow time of year)…and they will not “allow” a crash per se… but will react quickly and make the necessary adjustments to allay and calm fears.

Canada’s GDP is seriously addicted to RE…already enough bad news on the horizon(ie Sears, Loblaws layoffs ,Moroneau/Trudeau) that they won’t create any more.

The market may have reached it peak of greater fools naturally…let nature take its course.

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.17 at 8:20 pm

@#67 Stone
“Careful, don’t unsettle SCM now. He might go ballistic and … do nothing … other than post more spiteful deranged commentary while we all get a good laugh. Are you really prepared for more laughs?”
++++++

ahahahaha.

Like leading a lamb to the slaughter…..

And, for the record. I dont like seeing people laid off.
But watching SCM blow a gasket…….now THATS funny!

Boomers are inheirently evil. We cant help it……But, we’ve taught our children well.

#89 INFLATION EXISTS IN CANADA!!!!! on 10.16.17 at 8:21 pm

Did Mark deflation syndrome infect Dr. Garth Turner? For the past month eggs that was MSRP $1.99 are now $2.40, milk that was $4.99 for 4L Canadian milk & dairy company brand Neilson, is now $5.37.
Don’t forget that TTC token fares were $2.90 last year, but currently at $3.00 each, and they are phasing they out so that you have to spend at least $6.00 for a presto card which tracks your transit footprint.

Unless your Bill Morneau, inflation affect nearly everyone in Canada who earns less than $50,000 year.

#90 People are Strange on 10.16.17 at 8:22 pm

As a wise man once said; “let’s make Justin a drama teacher again!”

#91 TnT on 10.16.17 at 8:22 pm

#71 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.16.17 at 7:29 pm

You are missing the point that SCM has made quite a few times with various posts.

The constant drive for profits is killing the whole system and the pay gap between CEO’s and workers is getting dangerous.

This has been a much discussed topic for many years now, with each year getting worse.

This article comes to mind and its 2 years old.

Memo: From Nick Hanauer
To: My Fellow Zillionaires

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014

The whole system is a mess right now.

SCM is making a point that most here willfully ignore and turn a healthy debate into name calling and finger pointing.

#92 Dolce Vita on 10.16.17 at 8:26 pm

My bad, $1.49 Trillion in mortgages, +$2 Trillion was total household credit, still, mortgage $ huge.

More numbers for those that think the Credit Unions will save them from B20…

Mortgage credit as of Aug. 2017 per BoC:

$ mortgages last 12 months = $82.4 billion.
$64 billion went to the chartered banks.

http://credit.bankofcanada.ca/householdcredit

VanCity Dec. 31 2016 TOTAL $ assets = $21.1 billion.
Residential mortgages = $11.9 billion, up $720 million from 2015.

So VanCity, the largest Cdn. Credit Union, soaked up $720 million in mortgages.

Yup, them and their Credit Union pals are going to soak up $82.4 billion in new mortgages and save all the B20 rejects of Canada.

Not apples to apples, but close enough for Government work: $720 million/$82.4 Billion = 0.9%.

Presto, 0.9% of new B20 rejects saved by the largest credit union, asset value, in Canada.

Snow.balls.chance.in.Hades.

#93 tccontrarian on 10.16.17 at 8:27 pm

62 Dolce Vita on 10.16.17 at 7:18 pm

“Adam Button is myopic. The Bank of Canada is not the Bank of Real Estate. It sets monetary policy for the entire nation not just a segment of it and it affects variable rates, not fixed.

As for the American Big Short person, clearly he hasn’t looked at Canadian RE historical price indices. When they crash, they crash in 1 to 2 years, no slow burn. Again, history and no, it hasn’t been different in the past, nor will it be now… ”
————————————————————-

Agree with you, except that no-one can know in advance ‘exactly’ how the decline will unfold; all we can do is speculate.
It could take anywhere from 2-5 (or more) years from top to bottom. Whatever the case, I’m standing aside (renting), as I don’t want to be holding onto a depreciating asset which could lose as much as 50% of it value. Just as Bernanke couldn’t stop the decline in the US, so too our CB is really powerless in the end.

TCC

#94 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 10.16.17 at 8:28 pm

#71 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.16.17 at 7:29 pm

Thank you for admitting that massively profitable corporations suppress wages and leave Canadians unemployed to boost profits (no sh*t right). That was my entire point. It’s almost like the system is screwed up.

#95 Jon S on 10.16.17 at 8:28 pm

Here’s the full article by Mr. Button, in case anyone missed it:
https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2017/10/three-reasons-canadian-mortgage-rates-will-never-hit-5/

#96 waiting on the westcoast on 10.16.17 at 8:33 pm

From yesterday’s post…

233 SCM on 10.16.17 at 5:33 pm
#179 Pete on 10.16.17 at 9:45 am

“Corporate profits are soaring due to Canadian workers’ wages being suppressed. Thus the lack of higher personal income taxes. Pretty simple and obvious explanation.”

Oh look… Poor Scared Canadian Millennial is a Marxist.

If Canadian workers pay is so low, maybe they should ask for raises or shop for a better job or unionize or start their own business. Oh, but they can’t. They can’t beat the system. It’s amazing how many people convince themselves of why they shouldn’t bother upping their game….

Oppression stories / victim stories are fodder of people who relinquish their autonomy to the machine.

And sadly, when you would rather tell yourself that you are victimized rather than putting in the energy and effort bettering yourself and your circumstance, you really are doomed.

#97 Lost...but not leased on 10.16.17 at 8:35 pm

Watched a segment of 60 Minutes yesterday…the topic was drugs(opioids)whose “legal” market has expanded greatly with devastasting effects. The “watchdogs” have been sounding the alarm, but strong lobbying by Big Pharma has stymied them.

Reminds me of the credit bubble….and how parties like Alan Greenspan lobbied/advised Gov’ts that they needed some sort of opiate of wealth creation mechanism for the masses…probably implying a psy-opp, but double edged….a false hope followed by a demoralizing collapse.

#98 young & foolish on 10.16.17 at 8:38 pm

Bitcoin continues to roar … now @ $7221.37

#99 im a fool on 10.16.17 at 8:39 pm

#62 Dolce Vita on 10.16.17 at 7:18 pm
Adam Button is myopic. The Bank of Canada is not the Bank of Real Estate. It sets monetary policy for the entire nation not just a segment of it and it affects variable rates, not fixed.

As for the American Big Short person, clearly he hasn’t looked at Canadian RE historical price indices. When they crash, they crash in 1 to 2 years, no slow burn. Again, history and no, it hasn’t been different in the past, nor will it be now:

https://i.imgur.com/uzinX0L.jpg

The point is that historically and in Canada, prices drops, corrections, crashes in RE are not slow burning, they are relatively quick, as in 1 to 2 years. Just look at 416 over the past 6 months…nothing slow there other than sales at present.

There seem to be more headwinds for Cdn. RE than there is any good news nowadays.

CRA coming down hard in YVR RE, B20 stress test, large retail sector job lay offs, onerous NAFTA demands by the Americans (auto so far, if that is any indication look out dairy, lumber etc.), Liberals determined to tax small business people more and some one mentioned US Fed QE which will push fixed interest rates up regardless of what the BoC does.

I know, doomer. But to me, it does not look good for RE in terms of price appreciation. If anything, prices will drop and fast. Add to that the psychology of what is going on in the news, this exacerbates price drops.

By how much, who knows?

you forgot something.
lower loonie will bring a avalanche of cash from china….re will be higher.
So much for all us fools who didn’t buy a home for our families

#100 For those about to flop... on 10.16.17 at 8:39 pm

Here…

M43BC

“Which Countries Rule the Automotive World

The auto export market accounted for over $700 billion in economic activity in 2016, according to new numbers from the WorldsTopExports.com. That’s 2.7% higher than in 2015 and a whopping 7.1% better than in 2012. We wondered what it would look like to visualize such a large amount of economic activity in one map.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/cars-exports-by-country-2016

#101 Ace Goodheart on 10.16.17 at 8:40 pm

This is actually the first post on this blog that I almost fully agree with.

I remember writing over the summer (I believe on here) to the effect that the Canadian housing market will never crash spectacularly like the US market did. I believe the metaphor I used to describe the probable decline of the Canadian market was a “wet firecracker”. I recall invoking the terms “peace, order and good government” as opposed to the American “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” to describe the difference.

I do not, however, agree with anyone who states that interest rates in Canada cannot rise past 5%, or even rise to the level of 5%.

Canada is a pokey little middle of nowhere backwater place, internationally. Our biggest city has a subway system that opens late on Sunday (it is a Church day!). Most of the country is empty vacant land, owned by a mythical “Crown” and undevelopable. Our legal system is loosely based on the British (but here, a Barrister and a Solicitor are the same person – which state of affairs will drive any Brit nuts when they hear about it) and the American systems.

Most of our commercial law is imported directly from the States (our PPSA for example is just Article 9 of the US Uniform Commercial Code, cut and pasted).

The Americans can (and do) crater our economy by making absent minded decisions about trade. This happens often. The rest of the world has no idea where we are.

If anyone thinks that this crazy little half formed backwater country is going to have any sort of major influence on global interest rates, really this person likely has never left Canada or lived anywhere else.

Right now the Americans and the Chinese set the rates. As the Americans have been funding themselves by borrowing from the Chinese, it is kind of a symbiotic mutually parasitic relationship (this is why North Korea will never be a realistic threat to anyone other than South Korea, and that for only a very short time before the Americans and Chinese crush it together).

What has happened in Canada is housing prices have entered a form of delayed currency devaluation.

Our governments have borrowed themselves into a situation that they can never buy their way back out of. The only way for a government to get out of hopeless debt, is to print money.

Holding interest rates low, when the rest of the world is raising them, is the same as printing money.

So either way, if our government artificially holds our rates low, then they devalue the currency and print money. If they actually do print money, the effect is the same.

The only thing that is not effected by money printing, is hard assets. In Canada that asset is a house. You cannot print anymore of them.

Go to any country that has laws that allow people to own private property, and that has gone through a currency crisis, and you’ll see what I mean. In Greece for example, when they devalued the Drachma, all of a sudden every house was worth hundreds of millions of the things.

Most South American countries don’t actually allow their citizens to own property the same way we do here (you just rent from the government and you can buy and sell the lease) so they aren’t really comparable.

So, if you are arguing that Canada will never raise interest rates, then you are arguing for very high house prices in Canada.

If you are arguing that Canada will raise rates, and keep raising them as long as they are raised globally, then you are arguing for our government raising taxes, people losing their houses en masse, our banks taking huge hair cuts and our economy collapsing.

Which one sounds worse?

#102 TurnerNation on 10.16.17 at 8:42 pm

Dollarama stock hit new high today. And they are accepting the credit cards.
Massive per-cent price inflation there.
$1 items I’ve bought, now 1.25, 1.50.

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.17 at 8:42 pm

@#63 HHCE

Come on You can do better than THAT

Oh the markets outside are frightful
The arson fires inside de-lightful
And since we have no sales on the go..
Let em repo. Let em repo. let em repo.

Man its shows no sign of stoppin’
Cant believe sales are droppin’
My lights are turned way down low
Hidin’ from Mr Repo, Repo, Repo.

When we finally kiss our jobs goodnight
I’ll hate going out to flog
But CREA promises to hold me tight.
I hoping my client kisses the frog

And the market is slowly dyin’
And my Audi lease is slowly climbin’
As long as I’ve no place to go
Let them repo repo repo

#104 Smoking Man on 10.16.17 at 8:47 pm

WAR

The conservatives need to start hammering a message of Economic Nationalism. Welcome any color, creed, or sexual orientation. We need to Build Energy East.

We need to stop the globalists dead in their tracks. While T2 sells our country and our wealth for pennies on the Dollar, Trump is doing the exact opposite.

I discovered Siriusxm Chanel 125, Patriot Radio. I found heaven. So connected with there views.

Does anyone out there know anyone at Breitbart? I’m willing to fund and start a Chapter in Canada. Email me. [email protected]

I’ve had enough of these liberal mental midgets who are too stupid to know they are getting gamed. Or maybe a big payoff from the Saudis down the road. Flip a coin.

I’ve had enough, our rehab center isn’t even open yet, don’t get the building until Nov 1st and we could fill it today.

The Fentynaol epidemic killing our kids is an invention of the Globalists. If you do business with any company whose CEO goes to Davos, stop giving them your business. If you work for them. Quit.

This is WAR

You are losing it. Put the keyboard down and walk away slowly. — Garth

#105 Dolce Vita on 10.16.17 at 8:49 pm

#77 FredtheFred

Good observation, guessing YVR?

Look, I saw the same thing back in 1981 Calgary.

Then, the bottom dropped out of RE, quick, sudden, price drops in a couple of years. There used to be RE investment parties back then, it was always, up, up, up…plenty of shoes at those parties.

I get what you are saying and I saw it too, but I also saw the Calgary RE crash.

Caught everyone by surprise. Nothing sold and if it did, deep price cuts by those caught with their financial pants down, and, there were many of them. Many also did jingle mail which you could do back then in Calgary, well, until a Sheriff hand delivers an RSVP court date to meet up with [email protected]

History will repeat and I think we are getting close to that inflection point, probably within the year, if not sooner. It will take a while for B20 to grind the RE market down, 1 year I think.

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.17 at 8:51 pm

@#101 Ace Goodheart

Interesting arguement.
I just dont see how our govt could allow our dollar to swirl the economic toilet bowl to the $.50 range without raising rates….wether they want to or not.

And if Home Moaners take a hit…….. caveat emptor

#107 Danny on 10.16.17 at 8:54 pm

We have seen it in the movies and on comedy skits….a person goes hysterical and the one who sees this helps out by ” a quick slap to the face”..
Maybe that’s what the real estate market needs…so bring on regulations and more stress tests.
Someone needs to be the adult here with so many ” childlike purchases….only emotional spending ” driving up housing prices for the last few years.
Low interest and more than usual risk taking by lenders …..some just quietly rubbing their hands in the shadows…ready to pounce and take people’s homes and basically their livelihoods.
Sorry divorce numbers to grow.
More money for lawyers…..
The lenders are always protected….they actually own the houses…too bad most people taking on huge debt could not calculate for the future… only lived in the moment.
Thought they made their partners happy with purchasing overvalued when in reality they just delayed the slippery slope to giving back the house.
Real Estate can many times be a game of snakes and ladders…only one winner…many losses.

#108 Willy H on 10.16.17 at 8:56 pm

Central banker low interest rate policy got us into this over valued asset mess starting with Greenspan (2000-2006) a decade and a half ago.

It’s no surprise that forced regulation will be implemented to walk asset values back to normalcy after the worlds central bankers took us all for a 15 year almost-free-money joy ride.

The notion that markets got us here and that markets will self-correct this mess is pure lunacy.

#109 Smoking Man on 10.16.17 at 9:01 pm

SCM, grab your panties, give you’re a weggy and snap out of your madness, stop bashing boomers for your shortcomings. Do you think we take pleasure watching our millennial kids suffer at the hands of the Globalists? Hell No!!!! I know your life sucks but your fighting an ally, But because your kid, you don’t have enough life experience to know who really has you bent over.

You have great writing talent, put it to good use. Become a Canadian Patriot, Fight Global Communism.

Jack came early tonight.

#110 n1tro on 10.16.17 at 9:01 pm

#231 SCM on 10.16.17 at 5:31 pm

#228 Victor V on 10.16.17 at 4:56 pm
Loblaws’ corporate offices hit with 500 layoffs

http://www.bnn.ca/loblaws-corporate-offices-hit-with-500-layoffs-1.886216

——————————-

Damn. More layoffs. It’s almost like this boomer/conservative ideology of serving and worshiping corporate interests and the wealthy elites in the hope that it will trickle down, has been one giant scam.

Btw for the record, Loblaw Companies Ltd made $983 MILLION in PROFITS last year.

When is enough, enough?

Where the hell are the jobs going to come from for the millions of people we’re importing into this country? That is a legitimate question. Not a racist one. I’ve yet to receive an answer.
————————–
First off, the 500 jobs lost at loblaws is nothing to the blood letting of 1500 jobs when I started at head office. The $9xx million profit on >$30B sales is quite pathetic and hasn’t moved since I started over 10 years ago. If you complain about stagnant wages, how about stagnant profits for a business that sells something everyone needs eg. food.

Loblaws is a bloated organisation with a lot of idiots running the show. Lots of old school boomers who only care about their titles and stip bonuses and a bunch of green pea millennials who has only had loblaws on their job resume and are directors or VPs. Add that with the implementation of SAP, and and people wonder why they have to let go people. Remember Loblaws was the breeding ground for Calvin MacDonald to with only Loblaws experience went to Sears to run the show but quit after 2 years.

#111 Fiendish Thingy on 10.16.17 at 9:04 pm

Garth-

You have said many times that mortgage rates are not dependent on BOC rates; if the US Fed continues to raise rates, impacting the bond market, won’t Canadian mortgage rates have to rise, despite a falling loonie?

Yep. The bond market rules. — Garth

#112 Dolce Vita on 10.16.17 at 9:07 pm

#99 im a fool

Have not forgotten about the Chinese. Their capital controls for investment overseas appears to be working.

Price drops in Sydney, Australia being blamed on tighter lending and Chinese capital controls:

https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/918711077608636418

Many articles on Chinese capital controls working you can Google. If I recall something like max. $50 K per year outside of China and they have to sign on paper to the Chinese Govt to do that and what the money will be used for. Recall, the Chinese leader is a control freak.

I don’t think Chinese capital will rescue YVR RE post B20, nor the Credit Unions for that matter.

What you are seeing in Sydney will come to YVR soon enough.

#113 Flatlander on 10.16.17 at 9:08 pm

The small business tax reduction is a pathetic PR diversion from T2 and Bill while they push forward gutting the entrepreneurial spirit of this country. I guess it means the concept of retained earning “pensions” and spouses as business partners both face a certain death at the hangmans noose.

#114 akashic record on 10.16.17 at 9:09 pm

Don’t sweat the small staff.

https://www.mansionglobal.com/search?geocoded_location%5Bformatted_name%5D=Canada&geocoded_location%5Bformatted_address%5D=Canada&geocoded_location%5Bcountry%5D=Canada&location=canada&reloadLocationOnSearch=false&userSearchText=canada

#115 MaxtheTax on 10.16.17 at 9:09 pm

Garth,
I’m just so appalled at this latest promise of lowering small biz tax to 9%. All this means for 2019 is more potholes, longer surgery wait times and moronic nickle and dime Federal decisions, like pulling out of the Ballistic Missle Defense Shield.

People earning $400K need to be forced to contribute to the common good instead of pending on international travel because if they could play freemen on the land style tax evasion they would. I say: “Max the Tax!”

#116 jim on 10.16.17 at 9:10 pm

#78

“The US crash was precipitated by circumstances that simply do not exist in Canada. Canada could have a major correction but to draw comparisons to that which occurred in the US is simply ignorant or malicious.”

Brilliant. Like a lot of millennials, you are good at making assertions but terrible at providing any argument or evidence.

You might research ‘negative existential claim’. They are very hard to prove. So enlighten us as to what ‘circumstances are not present in Canada that were present in the USA.

Securitized mortgages?

Borrowers lying about their income?

Mortgage brokers incentivized to sign as many loans as possible and go light on due diligence?

A banking sector provided with generous moral hazard through guarantees from the government?

A culture of speculation that saw real estate as an asset that could only go up?

But no…. I guess none of these things apply to Canada. Nothing to see here. Move along.

God forbid that we ever try to use analogical reasoning and compare one country’s situation to another. I mean, you never ever see ‘comparative analysis’ occur in any academic discipline.

This is why I abhor teaching millennials. Zero critical thinking skills, only anger and self-righteousness. I have taught millennials with BAs and MAs who were handily outperformed at writing law and policy essays by older students who had a music degree and 12 years at a real job. The millennials couldn’t even write a paragraph, let alone grasp a policy argument.

#117 the Jaguar on 10.16.17 at 9:13 pm

“Not sure why banks can’t just tighten credits on their own, without waiting for OSFI to come up with new rules?
and this:
“To me the credit is being misused by consumers for whatever reason. And the banks allowed this wave of creditors to expand to a bubble. When this credit cycle hits every 25 years shouldn’t some kind of red flags be in place before this? And stop signs in place? Before all this mess happens!”/////////////////.
______ _________ __________ ______

Welcome to the ‘blame game’ , especially from those in the cheap seats who refuse to look in the mirror and take responsibility for their own actions. Did the ‘bad ole Banks’ kidnap your ass and hold a gun to your head to buy that overpriced piece of real estate? Did they waterboard you until you signed on the dotted line for that mortgage? All of them work with time proven models based on current interest rates to determine what is affordable for clients or prospective clients. They really are the ‘parent’ in the equation with many who can be loud, ugly demanding SOB’s if they don’t get what they want. And while Mark is correct that their verification processes are well meaning and thorough, it goes without saying that people will lie, cheat, sell their sister or their soul for granite countertops! Too bad the Banks can’t turn those sordid stories into some kind of reality TV show. MERCY! The ratings would be off the charts. Kardashian, who?

Financial Services is a highly competitive business, loyalty thin, and there is always some wolf around the corner looking to eat their lunch. They need to grow their business so they can reward their shareholders. Reality check—-that’s all of you on this blog. Review your investment statements if you think otherwise. That said, never underestimate the respect they feel and show to one another. If any regulator, current government, or some other a__hole blows into town with a serious threat just watch them circle the wagons. They are among the most responsible corporate citizens we have in Canada, have been for hundreds of years. They create jobs, contribute to their communities, and pay their taxes. Stop kicking them around and show some gratitude for the stability they offer your country and your portfolio statements. This unrelenting, shallow, soul sucking consumerism is at the heart of any real estate tsunami that lies in our path. And everyone that has participated can claim their share of the blame. As for the Banks, they earned their money the old fashioned way……they “earned it”.

#118 KMAN on 10.16.17 at 9:16 pm

I belive the OSFI rules are designed to move the risk from bank’s books to the tax payer’s books by the way of CMHC.

#119 Smoking Man on 10.16.17 at 9:18 pm

You are losing it. Put the keyboard down and walk away slowly. — Garth.

I’ve just attached a bump stock devise to my keyboard. Try and take it, only from my cold dead hands.

Garth, we all know the girly man takes his orders from a Newfie, a kid who was traumatized by Newfie jokes growing up. He’s out for revenge. Destroy the bastards.

Just like a fat ugly boy who grew up in the Bronx and was rejected by every female he encountered. He was crazy and creative which got him the top of the Hollywood Mountain. When he got there, it was revenge time. Just Like the Newfie is doing to all of Canada now hiding in the shadows thinking we don’t know who he is.

#120 Dolce Vita on 10.16.17 at 9:18 pm

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz

ROTFL.

You and HHCE! should start a rap group, and if neither of you can sing, become lyricists.

You’re both very good.

#121 Stone on 10.16.17 at 9:19 pm

#94 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 10.16.17 at 8:28 pm
#71 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.16.17 at 7:29 pm

Thank you for admitting that massively profitable corporations suppress wages and leave Canadians unemployed to boost profits (no sh*t right). That was my entire point. It’s almost like the system is screwed up.

——

No, no. It’s not screwed up at all. It’s working exactly the way it should. What’s unfortunate is that most sheeple haven’t figured out how to game the system as it stands, including yourself. The worst part is, you don’t actually have to be very intelligent to do it. We live in an open market economy where resources will find the most efficient way to be utilized and consumed. It’s not personal. It’s not about being mean or unfair. That is all irrelevant. The almighty dollar and consumers decide everything. If the companies doing the layoffs were so morally corrupt, wouldn’t consumers boycott them. Superstore, Loblaws and No Frills continues to have shoppers even after they announced their layoffs. Where did you buy your groceries, my morally rigid poster? Metro? Well, they’re laying off there too. Sobey’s and its affiliates? Same. I can’t believe you’re instead collecting your food while foraging in the forest. So that makes you a hypocrite. Continue to consume. You feed my dividends and other distributions. See, even for me, you have a use. You also give me a good laugh.

And yes. I feel for those laid off as any of us can be next, including myself and you (if you are employed). I simply understand that it is the reality we live with and adapt as best possible. It’s called common sense. That common sense and this system has made me wealthy. Don’t be jealous now screwy. Just use that brain of yours for something useful. You’re really not doing it justice.

#122 People are Strange on 10.16.17 at 9:20 pm

#62 Dolce Vita

Look at the history. In the early 90’s, it took 6-7 yrs for the market to return. It’s worse now! Just saying!

#123 dr. talc on 10.16.17 at 9:23 pm

Jeremy will rescind

#124 will on 10.16.17 at 9:25 pm

Hey SCM, just go and buy the Loblaw shares and participate in the whole thing and forget about all this nonsense. Or buy the preferreds, they have a decent yield and are redeemable, no troublesome rate reset. Get started man! Participate!

#125 Great jobs for millennials on 10.16.17 at 9:29 pm

Some great careers avail

https://gm.taleo.net/careersection/10360/jobsearch.ftl?lang=en

Just trying to help, sm you too…

#126 Ardy on 10.16.17 at 9:31 pm

To SCM and subscribers of that way of thinking.

1. Life costs money.
2. People should not have kids if they don’t know what it takes to support them and guide them into contributing members of society.
3. Having kids is not a necessity nor a right.
4. Choosing to be ignorant on how the economy functions does not give you a get out of jail card to blame it for your shortcomings.
5. Choosing a worthless education is to blame for your underemployment. This includes advanced degrees like engineering – If you don’t know your aptitude you will fail regardless.

The world will keep spinning. Clue in and learn how to survive in it whole mitigating risk for upside. Don’t let a job define you or ruin you; don’t let you home do it either.

And STOP coming of so pathetic and whiny. There is a reason you get hated on, after all flies are attracted to a steaming pile of dung. Show a bit of class.

RD

#127 james on 10.16.17 at 9:33 pm

Hey, emasculated smoking turd – just go away, you are a complete idiot tonight.

Coward, bigot, moron.

Your comments are simply asinine.

Get help.

#128 Duke on 10.16.17 at 9:34 pm

#35 Cecil Henry on 10.16.17 at 6:32 pm
How can someone making even a high salary, like $130,000/year afford a million dollar home.

With $50,000 in interest, and $80,000 after tax, that’s just $30,000/year to live and pay principal on the house.

How is that not insane??? Let it all burn, it so awful.

——————–

Exactly. Even at my current salary of $170k, the comfortable amount of mortgage is only $400k which translate to a house of $500k.

This is insane and a crash is inevitable.

#129 Smoking Man on 10.16.17 at 9:34 pm

SCM lets do Karaoke, you go first.
Do this one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-EF60neguk

I’ll do this one. I’m a bit thinner and move a bit slower but share the same haircut.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6fQnTyEniM

#130 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 10.16.17 at 9:37 pm

“Tate’s won’t rise, people and governments couldn’t afford the payments”…….no duh. I said this years ago…..what’s new. A rise past five percent would bankrupt the federal government and every other level of government who have borrowed heavily. “to take advantage of low rates”. The only people left to buy will be corrupt money laundering. Truth is not popular on this site….but there it is.

#131 Dolce Vita on 10.16.17 at 9:38 pm

#93 tccontrarian

I don’t know for sure and you might be correct with 2-5 years.

If you look at that historical house price index chart I posted it’s usually 1-2 years rapid drop and about 5 years to completely play out.

I just get this gut feel that B20 is going to clobber the already weakening RE resale markets in YVR and 416.

My thinking is that they are slowly correcting on their own and that B20 will accelerate that correction with fewer qualified buyers that have less to spend, why I’m thinking 1 year, maybe 2.

Toss a coin.

Your numbers more historically correct than mine, I am just less optimistic.

#132 Spock on 10.16.17 at 9:38 pm

Back from a walk as per SCM’s suggestion.

What you and SCM are missing is that there is a reason that these are for profit businesses and these are NOT – Not for Profit.

If I have money invested in a business, I want to maximize my profits. There is a thin line between wanting to keep your productive staff and maximizing your profits.

Creating jobs by businesses is a byproduct of having to stay in business. That is not the prime objective of the business. The prime objective is to make profits for the shareholders otherwise the business will have to close down after a string of losses.

Is that good for society? Probably not but then again my business (and most businesses small and large) is not running a charity (which is what SCM and others fail to understand). Either you change with the times or you fail and die a slow painful death (in business). For employees with nothing but a salary on the line, it is easy to be jealous of the profit that the owners make.

Most organizations starting with the Government are bloated and have too many employees. Most should shed workers either for profitability or for being accountable for tax payers money.

$ I do agree with the gap pay between CEO and the workers (unless the CEO is the owner). Unfortunately, even CEO’s who bankrupt companies are rewarded for their incompetence.

————–
#91 TnT on 10.16.17 at 8:22 pm
#71 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.16.17 at 7:29 pm

You are missing the point that SCM has made quite a few times with various posts.

The constant drive for profits is killing the whole system and the pay gap between CEO’s and workers is getting dangerous.

SCM is making a point that most here willfully ignore and turn a healthy debate into name calling and finger pointing.

#133 Spock on 10.16.17 at 9:42 pm

Good suggestions but unfortunately there is a commodity called money which is required to buy the shares (and there are still better options than Loblaws available in the market).

Still waiting for SCM to show the proof of people cheering for the layoffs / destroyed families and destroyed lives. Same as the other statement – nothing to back up but thin air.

BTW: Into Thin Air was a pretty good book to read.
——————

#124 will on 10.16.17 at 9:25 pm
Hey SCM, just go and buy the Loblaw shares and participate in the whole thing and forget about all this nonsense. Or buy the preferreds, they have a decent yield and are redeemable, no troublesome rate reset. Get started man! Participate!

#134 Leo Trollstoy on 10.16.17 at 9:43 pm

The big short coming to Canada?

Why not. Can’t wait.

Up next? Rapid inflation!

http://www.businessinsider.com/yellen-is-right-about-inflation-and-will-be-vindicated-2017-10

Where’s deflation? It was never here.

#135 Smoking Man on 10.16.17 at 9:45 pm

#127 james on 10.16.17 at 9:33 pm
Hey, emasculated smoking turd – just go away, you are a complete idiot tonight.

Coward, bigot, moron.

Your comments are simply asinine.

Get help.
….

Getting to you finally, my rehab center opens on Nov 1st, We take drug addicts and those who are truly insane. You are more than welcome to come, I’ll give you a discount.

#136 MSM-Free Zone on 10.16.17 at 9:47 pm

104 Smoking Man on 10.16.17 at 8:47 pm
“…Does anyone out there know anyone at Breitbart? I’m willing to fund and start a Chapter in Canada…..”
_______________________________

No need. We already have (or had) one, something called ‘The Rebel’, though, he might be a little hard to find lately.

Other than a bunch of freedom-luvin, god-fearin, pickup-drivin, gun-totin, guvernment-hatin bigoted, narrow-minded, alt-right nut-bars, he didn’t have much of an audience here in Canada.

Think his name was Levant, or Irrelevant, or something like that.

#137 Long Branch Apprentice on 10.16.17 at 9:47 pm

You think things are bad now, wait til Universal basic Income saps the last drop of motivation from a generation already sapped by anti-depressants and video games.

Wife is due any day now, nothing like replicant to wash away any vestiges of nihilism.

Block chain. The revolution started awhile ago but most of you are too busy participating in the Opression Olympics to notice.

Teachers taught you to try and save the world, that only ends in bitterness. Only thing you can save is staring at you in the mirror.

Antifa will be a household name after Nov. 4th.

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.17 at 9:50 pm

@#105 Smokey DA Bear
“I’ve had enough, our rehab center isn’t even open yet, don’t get the building until Nov 1st and we could fill it today.”

======

Breathe Smokey……beeee the balllll…..na na nanananananananana

#139 Dolce Vita on 10.16.17 at 9:51 pm

#122 People are Strange

I hear you.

You know, I went thru 2 of those corrections as a property owner (Calgary, Vancouver). I did fine mind you.

But I saw what it did to a lot of people and it was bad, very bad.

You are correct with the recovery period after a crash or correction.

As for me, I just don’t want to go there. What will happen this time around to Canadians will be even worse due to higher debt loads.

Basically, roll back a decade of financial gains in a few short years. Then wait another near decade to break back even. That’s for the lucky people that can take the financial hit. Those that cannot, well, let’s not go there.

#140 Karma on 10.16.17 at 9:52 pm

#9 Waiting Never Pays on 10.16.17 at 5:48 pm
“So in summary, rates will not rise enough to cause any damage beyond those last into the ponzi housing scheme because ‘too many people will be hurt’ and ‘globalization.’

Seems this was the argument of many posters here, however crudely voiced, for the past half decade or so – which was routinely mocked.

In essence, if you got in before the last 30% rise over the last two years in places like TO, Vancouver, and Victoria, you will be fine……

Doesn’t seem like waiting to buy because of overvaluations for years was the smart choice….”
——————————
This strategy doesn’t work for young people. In fact, it’s counter-productive because in order to “get in” to the market, young people need the help of their parents (or grandparents). This act just pulls forward demand that otherwise would have happened in the future, and pushes up prices in earlier than would have.

Because mortgage debt is almost always in the picture with young people, some of these young people’s futures can and will be ruined due to being unable to manage their living expenses (particularly as rates rise). So on a micro-level, even if they get the house they want, they could end up losing it (and get divorced due to money problems), all while the housing market remains relatively high. In other words, just because housing prices are high doesn’t mean everyone’s a winner. Being able to stay in the market is what matters after getting into it. And that’s where the risks lie, and what Garth goes on about.

#141 Smoking Man on 10.16.17 at 9:52 pm

#125 Great jobs for millennials on 10.16.17 at 9:29 pm
Some great careers avail
https://gm.taleo.net/careersection/10360/jobsearch.ftl?lang=en
Just trying to help, sm you too…
….

Jobs and me don’t get along, shit started in school. But thanks for thinking about me. Appreciated.

#142 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.17 at 9:53 pm

Eauropean Space Agency took
a bunch of disabled kids into weightlessness…….

How cool is that?

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.mirror.co.uk/science/esa-gives-eight-children-disabilities-11336750&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjs3t31xfbWAhUX9mMKHS1ZDDQQFggkMAM&usg=AOvVaw3_9xHJ9foYJv37yIvezH5A

Trump the Grump wouldnt even consider it

#143 young & foolish on 10.16.17 at 9:54 pm

Not everyone agrees rates will rise very high in the US either ….

#144 akashic record on 10.16.17 at 9:56 pm

500 layoffs

As soon as people and businesses accept the idea that buying human labor on the open market is the same as buying any other products and services that are needed for the operation of a company the disputes whether it is ethical or not letting people go is solved by enlarge.

Nobody gets offended when a company don’t use more hydro than it needs.

Human labor is basically the same, just a different kind of energy, powering the same business.

This clarity gets fogged up when businesses claim that they “create jobs”, which comes with the consequences that they also “kill jobs”.

At that point the simple economic transaction turns into an irrational political blame game with no limit of the hysteria.

#145 Karma on 10.16.17 at 9:58 pm

#18 ILoveCharts on 10.16.17 at 5:58 pm
“Don’t read the book. Watch the movie.

Say what you will, prices will keep marching up in core markets. The loophole through the OSFI rules are huge. Just walk over to your local credit union because they won’t be touched. At VanCity they even have a program to help people who can’t scrap together any down payment at all. The only way to save our economy is to crank up immigration and most of the new folks want to live in the cities.

The OSFI knows they have to play carefully. Anything they do will have a disproportionate impact on locals. Watch for more government handouts to mitigate any impact.

Besides, the OSFI is only going to implement a 1% stress test.”
————————-
And do you think VanCity has enough capital to service those loan demands? Last time I checked, their capital structure had significantly less equity backing up their loans than RBC. So they’re running at full speed already. VanCity would need to raise their deposit rates to attract new capital to lend out to the extra mortgage demand. And those credit unions will raise rates because there would be less competition. They are not charities.

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.17 at 10:00 pm

@#120 Dolce Vita
“You and HHCE! should start a rap group, and if neither of you can sing, become lyricists.”

+++++

Funny you should say that.
After see the excellent documentary about James Brown and his hit “Please, Please, Please”….
I was thinking about writing a song for Justin Beiber for the next time he’s arrested called
” Freeze, Freeze, Freeze”

#147 Trump on 10.16.17 at 10:03 pm

Its almost as if a DRAMA TEACHER is running the country. A spoiled rich one at that.

ROBIN HOOD as entered the stage.

#148 Bearded Man on 10.16.17 at 10:07 pm

Hey #127 James,
Every time I read GF I go to the comments section and go “ctrl-F” for “smoking” to read smokey’s comments, he’s the best commenter here!

#149 pat palmer on 10.16.17 at 10:07 pm

Not sure if anyone realizes how beyond ridiculous the Vancouver housing market has really become. Based on present prices, condos in the Greater Vancouver area are approximately $850-$1000 per square foot plus condo fees and property taxes. Single family dwellings in Greater Vancouver average approx $1500-$2500 per square foot plus on average $6000 per year for an old un renovated house to $10,000 + for a new or renovated house. A piece of crap house in a very unsavory part of town starts way over a million. Maybe 3 in total avail too and then well over a million for an ok run down house in an ok part of town with very few avail. Loads over 3 million. Folks who cant afford houses have given up and bought into the hype and now rushing to condos to raise their 2-3 kids in a one bedroom den where they fill the tiny master with bunk beds and the grown ups sleep in the den or…the living room. This is so far from normal I think that economists are unaware of how bad it really is here. No melt here. When this herculean bubble pops, it is going to be such a sad event. Toronto’s boost this past year doesn’t even come close to what has happened in Vancouver. Toronto prices in 2017 are what happened in Vancouver in 2011. Now…its just beyond demented. Classic euphoria stage crazy. The feelings of hopelessness here are palpable and a reality check is long overdue. A small 1600 square foot bungalow (Vancouver MLS includes the basement in square footage. Other provinces do not) here starts at over 2 million with an average of $6000-$8000 property taxes per year. Rent is crazy expensive. The average 1 bedroom here is over $3000/month. This…cannot last. Folks that would like to cash in aren’t selling either as they cant afford to replace their current home in this market and cant wrap their brains around renting a small condo for $4000/ month because they have a cat. A lot of folks then chosen to borrowing against false equity in their home to renovate, buy luxury cars, pay for private schools and float their dream life. All of this debt must be paid for at some time. If under 10% of the buyers are off shore and Canada only has 250,000 millionaires then the longer this boil takes to burst…the worse the wound. The world won’t end but let’s not kid ourselves. Very naive to think Vancouver won’t crash. When we were looking to buy here in 2009 we looked at a 4000 square foot character home in the Kits area on West 2nd ave and they were asking $650,000. An eight suite apartment building on Oak street for $850,000. Reality check. Saying otherwise just pushes more people into buying tiny 2 bedroom boxes in the sky for $700,000 or more. This must stop. It’s so dehumanizing to live in a place where renters cannot afford to live let alone never afford to even buy a small condo. Egregious borrowing practises by banks too. Not just brokers giving lier loans. Big banks have been doing it too. Wasn’t until CMHC dropped the threshold to $500,00 that banks started getting twitchy. More skin in the game. We dont want to see people hurt by the landslide caused by this madness but the option to melt passed it best before date long ago.
In 1999 I applied for a pre approved mortgage. The cap on qualifying for CMHC insurance approval was $250,000. First time home buyer financing. A starter home. At some point someone lift that cap to infinite as long as you could prove income to service the mortgage payments. This, silly low interest rates, The airing of “The lifestyles of the Rich and Famous”, Martha Stewart and house flipping TV shows changed our cerebral landscape. In history Government doesn’t step in and make broad stroke changes to save citizens from themselves when bubbles happen in any market. Housing dot com or tulip bulb wars. Garth is not wrong. He is just early.

#150 will on 10.16.17 at 10:08 pm

Hey SCM all the Loblaw people being fired are pretty much all highly paid executives who probably already have tons of shares. You don’t have to feel sorry for them. Forget about that.

#151 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.17 at 10:12 pm

@#124 will
“Hey SCM, just go and buy the Loblaw shares and participate in the whole thing and forget about all this nonsense. Or buy the preferreds, they have a decent yield and are redeemable, no troublesome rate reset. Get started man! Participate”

++++++
Total agreement

Dub Darth Vader’s voice

“Young Screwed Canadian Millenial
You know not the POW-AH of the Dark Side.
Embrace it!
Young Millenial falcon you know not what awaits you if you Buy into the Dark side of the Force of Planet Dividend…..
Your DESSSS-TIN-Y is preferred shares… reject the “awakening” of social Jussssss-Tisssss”

#152 Smoking Man on 10.16.17 at 10:14 pm

Last post of this wobbly night.

Alcohol, because no great story ever started with someone eating salad.

It was a tee shirt I saw in New Orleans.

Dr. Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics

#153 Paddler on 10.16.17 at 10:19 pm

Just got back from a 4 day weekend in North Van. There are blocks of old house gone. Levelled! Not even a hole in the ground yet. Some billboards up “SOLD OUT”!! Go figure. Where is the correction? I believe it when I see it. Houses still selling over asking.

Interesting times ahead.

#154 paul on 10.16.17 at 10:20 pm

#107 Danny on 10.16.17 at 8:54 pm

We have seen it in the movies and on comedy skits….a person goes hysterical and the one who sees this helps out by ” a quick slap to the face”..
Maybe that’s what the real estate market needs…so bring on regulations and more stress tests.
“““““““““““““““““““““`
Here ya go1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0x-fkSYDtUY

#155 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.17 at 10:22 pm

@#148 pat palmer

interesting comments…..
however……

There’s another word that starts with “p” that you might consider the next time you write……

Paragraph

#156 Denise#1 on 10.16.17 at 10:29 pm

Is there a full moon tonight? Lots of weird, entertaining comments (more than usual).

#157 Smoking Man on 10.16.17 at 10:30 pm

Economic Nationalism Canadians.

The globalists are evil wolves with a sheepskin jacket that they hide behind, they created feel-good words that teachers pounded into the kid’s heads for years.

Thank God I’m dyslexic. I’m coming for you teachers, Not one of you educated bitches will take me on.

Winning

#158 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.16.17 at 10:32 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.16.17 at 8:42 pm
@#63 HHCE

Come on You can do better than THAT

Oh the markets outside are frightful
The arson fires inside de-lightful
And since we have no sales on the go..
Let em repo. Let em repo. let em repo.

Man its shows no sign of stoppin’
Cant believe sales are droppin’
My lights are turned way down low
Hidin’ from Mr Repo, Repo, Repo.

When we finally kiss our jobs goodnight
I’ll hate going out to flog
But CREA promises to hold me tight.
I hoping my client kisses the frog

And the market is slowly dyin’
And my Audi lease is slowly climbin’
As long as I’ve no place to go
Let them repo repo repo

Bravo! Bravo!….Encore! encore!

#159 Karma on 10.16.17 at 10:37 pm

#26 MF on 10.16.17 at 6:17 pm
“So we are done with “rising rates” at a pathetic 1%. So much for all that wasted emotion/hope. But it’s not surprising. Most of us knew these idiots didn’t have it in them. Oh well.

Everyone who bought already (leverage or not) is still looking like a genius, unfortunately.

So basically it’s house prices will not rise as fast (or at all) but will continue to be unaffordable for most without excessive borrowing.

That means us new buyers will still have to borrow big to buy their shoebox condos, and this will keep demand for the lower end. How can this not result in higher prices for move up buyers? How does this help? It doesn’t.

Interest rates staying in the ditch + continued demand will mean higher prices in my opinion. OSFI is nothing but hot air IMO.”
————————————

If you think OSFI change is “nothing but hot air”, why have the mortgage brokers been so against it? Why would so many suggest that credit could fall by 20%? TD said house prices could fall by 5%.

I don’t know how much prices or credit will fall by after this change, but I do know how GDSR and TDSR work. The question is really how many people will actually fail this stress test, but it’s certainly not going to be 0%. Therefore, it’s certainly not going to help house prices rise.

Read:
https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2017/07/osfi-proposes-tighter-mortgage-underwriting-standards/
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/new-mortgage-rules-could-depress-housing-demand-by-another-10-td
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/09/21/proposed-mortgage-rules-will-reduce-your-home-buying-power-by-21-report_a_23218134/

#160 will on 10.16.17 at 10:39 pm

my last word on the loblaw business and i will shut up:

those people being laid off fired terminated or whatever you want to call it would probably laugh in your face if they knew you felt sorry for them.

#161 TortyPapa on 10.16.17 at 10:44 pm

#153 Paddler

Those are probably houses that have sold last year or a year ago. Developers are putting in condos and the ‘Sold Out’ means they’ve sold those condos to people who cannot afford anything else. The correction is in the detached market. You visiting Vancouver for 4 days in no way makes you an expert. Just talk to any realtor or drive around Vancouver West and see how many signs are up for sale and how many have been sold. Open your eyes.

#162 I love scm on 10.16.17 at 10:45 pm

Seems reasonable. Death by regulation. How Canadian
**************
Brought about by deregulation. How American.

Thankfully the banking regulations brought in by the libs saved us in 08. Harper just stood there and took the credit for doing nothing.

#163 Backmarker on 10.16.17 at 10:49 pm

#17 RudyGQ Sorry but this is a Conservative tax plan laid out in 2015.

https://www.conservative.ca/harper-sets-out-plan-to-lower-taxes-on-job-creating-small-businesses-2/

#164 Canada=Poor cousin of U.S on 10.16.17 at 10:57 pm

I am simply blown away by the FACTS that in a country where the sales taxes are twice than U.S, incomes are almost half of U.S (check out the white collar job salaries and factor in the exchange rate) , cost of goods almost double of U.S (just dont try to argue on this one. its FACT), Mortgages are not deductible and the loonie people are willing to buy pathetic shoebox style houses for 1 Mil +. Just mind blowing!! People down south won’t even have a second look at what ya’ll kill each other to buy. UNBELIEVABLE!!!

#165 n1tro on 10.16.17 at 10:59 pm

Given how many people loblaws employs in the retail sector, how much of their decision to cut 500 people had to due with offsetting their upcoming cost increase in wages and fringe with a $15/hr minimum?

#166 Smoking Man on 10.16.17 at 11:07 pm

Dying dogs. It was a beauty run. Me and god w\
have words for each other. Hopefully, he’s like Garth with an addiction to debate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2shR99NnwCA

#167 Blacksheep on 10.16.17 at 11:14 pm

Smoking Man # 119,

“I’ve just attached a bump stock devise to my keyboard. Try and take it, only from my cold dead hands.”
————————————-
That is the BEST come back EVER on this blog and I’ve been here from the beginning.

But come on, everybody knows bump stocks are for Rednecks. Pro’s go straight for an M240 belt fed variant when rapid distribution is required.

#168 Dissident on 10.16.17 at 11:14 pm

#10 SCM on 10.16.17 at 5:52 pm

Kindly check yesterday’s post’s for several of our late replies on this subject that you keep flogging like a dead horse. K thanks.

#169 paulo on 10.16.17 at 11:22 pm

Airbus Industries purchases 50.01% interest in bombardier C-Series Jet !

Looks like Boeing will regret there attempt to kill it

#170 Smoking Man on 10.16.17 at 11:24 pm

Love you hope you love me.

Anything in between.

War

#171 Backmarker on 10.16.17 at 11:32 pm

SCM While I hate to feed the troll…Spock just gave you a basic real world Economics 101 lesson and you choose to attack him?

#172 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.16.17 at 11:58 pm

#84

“blame foreigners and blame the speculators”

———————————————————-

Well Garth there is some very interesting evidence that is starting to come out regarding this topic that suggest Canada and its RE is basically a new cayman islands for world criminals.

Anyone read any of Sam Coopers stuff?

He is just starting to uncover the tip of the iceberg that is international money laundering through BCs casinos and real estate. Of the 800 or so ULTRA VIP clients @ River Rock Casino, 150 admitted to being either real estate developers or a related job title, others declined to comment or had no records.

According to Sam and his quick back of the napkin type calculations, these 150 clients account for 100’s of millions of dollars going into the casino. Thats just through River Rock btw, and thats just these 150.

Seems to me BC lotto commission has some very very shady happenings.

So 1 of 2 things has happened over the last decade and a half in BC, with a population of about 4.5 million people.

1) Tremendous job growth with incredible salaries across all sectors, leading to a ridiculous increase in the price of homes. Go ahead and insert the eye roll emoji here.

2) 100’s and 100’s (and maybe more) of millions of dirty money has been cleaned through BC’s real estate & casinos.

Which seems more likely?

(Little side note, I looked at buying an existing dollar store in the okanagan this past summer, they paid their manager $11.75/hour! How do people live on this? Regardless, she and her kind are not the ones driving prices up.)

Now I think in general that most people are mouth breathing numbskulls. So yeah I can definitely get behind the idea of speculators playing their role in this. Honestly, who can blame them? All we have seen is growth. So yeah fine, the speculators played a role too; and the average person has got a bad case of FOMO and got into the game too.

But if my and Mr Coopers suspicions are correct, than this gigantic BC bubble has been fuelled by astronomical amounts of dirty money coming in. Just think what the effect of say $250 million coming into BC RE would do? Remember BC has 4.5
————–
This story will get very long legs, as people gonna wake up and realize the extent of money laundering in the Best Place on Earth.

#173 Spock on 10.17.17 at 12:09 am

n1tro:

As per Loblaws the increase in minimum wage (at least where it is mandated) will cost Loblaws $190M in 2018.

These round of layoffs are just the start from my experience dealing with big and small businesses.

Wynn is of course doing a fantastic job wasting billions of dollars (following the precedence set by the wolf in sheeps clothing before her) and worrying about the poor and middle class. Goes well with her fed counterparts.

—————————-
#165 n1tro on 10.16.17 at 10:59 pm
Given how many people loblaws employs in the retail sector, how much of their decision to cut 500 people had to due with offsetting their upcoming cost increase in wages and fringe with a $15/hr minimum?

#174 VIT on 10.17.17 at 12:11 am

Many borrowers would be forced to sell their homes …..
Why borrowers would be forced to sell their homes ?? if interests rates stays low , unemployment low, stock market all time high . Plus 2% stress test will make impossible for many home owners to up size so they will stay were they are now which only shrink home inventories and less supply will lead to more demand and higher prices .

#175 yorkville renter on 10.17.17 at 12:15 am

#149 – Pat Palmer Not sure if anyone realizes how beyond ridiculous the Vancouver housing market has really become

I stopped reading there… just wanted to answer your question… yes, some realize it. Was there anything else in your post?

#176 Paddler on 10.17.17 at 12:19 am

#161 TortyPapa

I’m no expert. Having lived on the North Shore for 35 years and sold the house 4 years ago, I went back to visit friends and old neighbours. I don’t care when these houses sold, I said the billboard reads sold out. Just drive around  the Lonsdale aera and look at the building that is going on. No need to ask a realtor.

You say ask any realtor… I don’t believe a word that comes out of any realtors mouth. 

I’m no expert. Having lived on the North Shore for 35 years and sold the house 4 years ago, I went back to visit friends and old neighbours. I don’t care when these houses sold, I said the billboard reads sold out. Just drive around  the Lonsdale aera and look at the building that is going on. No need to ask a realtor.

You say ask any realtor… I don’t believe a word that comes out of any realtors mouth. 

#177 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.17.17 at 12:31 am

Sam Cooper will be a household name.
Gutsy reporter uncovering the shady world of money laundering in a Richmond casino and its effect on RE in the Best Place on Earth.
Casino gate coming.

#178 DON on 10.17.17 at 12:45 am

#99 im a fool on 10.16.17 at 8:39 pm

#62 Dolce Vita on 10.16.17 at 7:18 pm
I know, doomer. But to me, it does not look good for RE in terms of price appreciation. If anything, prices will drop and fast. Add to that the psychology of what is going on in the news, this exacerbates price drops.

By how much, who knows?

you forgot something.
lower loonie will bring a avalanche of cash from china….re will be higher.
So much for all us fools who didn’t buy a home for our families
******************

China is in the process of curbing the outflow of capital to shore up its loans.

#179 DON on 10.17.17 at 1:12 am

Wow!

Layoffs happening in multiple industries across Canada and the world for that matter (UK prime example). Low growth and very little prospects on the horizon. QE pulled demand forward. Bubbles are similar in nature – not the same. People are loosing jobs – and nobody seems to think it could be a catalyst to a housing downturn. Prices are too high, people are highly leveraged with hardly a financial cushion.

There is talk about further consolidation in the Oil industry (Alberta). GDP on a downturn – how much of our GDP is in real estate related activities?

Twitter announcements of price declines in Nanaimo, BC. Victoria zolo littered with price reductions *$30,000 grand at time.

Recession talk is in the news – even the financial post had a full article – I take it they couldn’t pump the pumpers anymore when faced with a bleak future.

This is not doomerism it is reality. I recall watching a poor soul get caught in a tsunami. He watched the ocean recede in an unprecedented manner and didn’t high tail it to higher ground. We’ve all seen the video.

Signs..signs…everywhere signs. Yet there will always be those “who never saw it coming”. The momentum is on the downside and yet people still think nothing has changed – even in light of the price declines in GTA and across Canada. Then there’s the BC money laundering into real estate – now out in the open and forcing action and calls for the Feds to step in.

Just a blip…I know unicorns and puppy tails. Forgot that taxes and prices are rising also…nope still unicorns and puppy tails. Fixed rates not set by the Bank of Canda…still unicorns. All well! Only a real bad real estate agent and delusional greaterfool thinks the market still has legs at these historic – out of reach prices.

#180 Joe2.0 on 10.17.17 at 1:13 am

Reminds me of the story of the farmer that slowly built a fence around his garden, a board or two a day.
On the last day he put the last boards up and had trapped a family of deer inside the corral.
Sound familiar?
Rinse and repeat to the blindsided sheep.

#181 Dee on 10.17.17 at 1:32 am

Steve Eisman mentioned problems at home capital in 2013. That is where marc cohodes got the heads up from and then began shorting home cap in 2014

#182 I thinks I know something on 10.17.17 at 1:43 am

Adam Button agrees. He’s a currency analysts and central bank-watcher who argues rates can’t really rise a lot because inflation’s kaput in a world of globalization, free labour movement, Amazon, driverless vehicles, AI and Adele. Besides, if the Bank of Canada were to crank its benchmark rate too much, the entire country would fall apart.

———————————————————-

What myself and any other semi-sentient fool poster has been saying the last several years.

#183 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.17.17 at 2:46 am

#38 Go away scm on 10.16.17 at 6:40 pm
Scm

Stop talking about boomers in any of your posts

Go away.
====================================
Why not leave the kid alone!
He has a view and a perspective even though many don’t agree.
If we criticize young people there will be nothing but a bunch of navel gazing wrinklies on this site discussing adult diaper brands.
Hang around young people and you will be young at heart!

#184 Howard on 10.17.17 at 3:33 am

#162 I love scm on 10.16.17 at 10:45 pm

Which banking regulations did the Libs bring in? When? Which laws?

#185 Brydle604 on 10.17.17 at 4:16 am

” They have announced the firm will be removing the degree classification from its entry criteria, saying there is “no evidence” that success at university correlates with achievement in later life. The best education has ALWAYS been an apprenticeship – not some university course taught by someone who has never practiced what they teach.”

Could Smoking Man be right?

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/the-gdp-decline-post-2015-75/

#186 Dolce Vita on 10.17.17 at 4:37 am

Well, this was an eye opener of a change in Vancouver Detached average selling prices at Zolo.ca.

Note the 5 Bd and 6 Bd rows price changes and the 2 Bd price change in the past 7 days.

Suffice to say, there must be wicked, turn on a dime, price changes going on in Vancouver,

OR

something amiss at Zolo.ca for Vancouver resale RE stats?

Do a side by side comparison with separate left and right docked windows for each image in Chrome…ought to take you 10 seconds to spot the anomalies.

Lazarus of Bethany comes to mind.

October 10, 2017 Detached Avg. Price Table:

https://i.imgur.com/4knXWBg.jpg?1

October 17, 2017 Detached Avg. Price Table:

https://i.imgur.com/Dboqf22.jpg?1

#187 Brydle604 on 10.17.17 at 4:50 am

“Ernst & Young has been one of the top graduate recruiters in the UK and USA. They have announced the firm will be removing the degree classification from its entry criteria, saying there is “no evidence” that success at university correlates with achievement in later life. The best education has ALWAYS been an apprenticeship – not some university course taught by someone who has never practiced what they teach.”

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/the-gdp-decline-post-2015-75/

Smoking Man has a point

#188 Steve French on 10.17.17 at 5:17 am

I reckon Smoking Man has never had an original thought in his lifetime.

It’s all straight from the Breitbart playbook.

His continual bashing of George Soros (up to no good like promoting human rights and democratic institutions in developing countries) is also classic international Jewish conspiracy-mongering.

Bring on more Screwed Canadian Millennial, I say.

At least he keeps this blog honest.

#189 Dharma Bum on 10.17.17 at 6:31 am

“Justin Trudeau propping up his wavering, deer-in-the-headlights finance guy at a major media event.” – Garth
——————————————————————–

Ha ha ha. It’s like “Weekend at Bernie’s”!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvITkVaOpUs

#190 Dan.t on 10.17.17 at 7:01 am

#179 Don

——

Excellent post but it’s different in BC. By the way do you have unicorns and puppy tails for sale, I’ll buy em all. Any price. Reality sucks.

Gonna ask those who said it’s different this time in 2 years if it really was… time will tell but with so many signs, not only in front of people, but smack in their faces they still don’t want to accept reality.

#191 Dharma Bum on 10.17.17 at 7:02 am

#94 Screwed Canadian Millenial

“Thank you for admitting that massively profitable corporations suppress wages and leave Canadians unemployed to boost profits (no sh*t right). That was my entire point. It’s almost like the system is screwed up.”
——————————————————————–

SCM is right….almost.

It’s not that the system is screwed up.

That IS the way the system is MEANT to work.
Always was. Always will be.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5a10xRXj-k

#192 Victor V on 10.17.17 at 7:14 am

#174 VIT on 10.17.17 at 12:11 am

Many borrowers would be forced to sell their homes …..
Why borrowers would be forced to sell their homes ?? if interests rates stays low , unemployment low, stock market all time high . Plus 2% stress test will make impossible for many home owners to up size so they will stay were they are now which only shrink home inventories and less supply will lead to more demand and higher prices .

====================

What do you think will happen when homeowners go to renew their existing mortgages after their terms are up?

#193 Reality 1 on 10.17.17 at 7:26 am

to # 119 Smoking Man

Your assessment of Mr. Butts’ motivations, while perhaps a little crude, are nonetheless ACCURATE.

As is your assessment of Mr. Weinstein’s motivations.

It takes an “outside of the box” thinker to see that.

I have a newfound respect for this Smoking Man’s thought process / critical thinking ability.

Now, if he can only stay lucid….

Anybody that cannot see that , having it so (ineloquently) pointed out, simply has limited critical thinking ability and knows nothing about human psychology / motivation.

#194 Reality 1 on 10.17.17 at 7:34 am

to # 188 Steve French

I take it that you are a Marxist or a follower of Saul Alinsky or Antifa then?

Surely you cannot believe that George Soros is an altruist?

#195 Reality 1 on 10.17.17 at 7:37 am

to # 127 James

So, you wish to censor another person’s postings because they do not conform to your Leftist leaning thoughts?

How terribly “progressive” of you.

#196 Reality 1 on 10.17.17 at 7:42 am

to # 179 Don

Well put – excellent summary of the current Canadian real estate market dynamics , which as you point out, everyone seems to be oblivious to.

I guess experience will be their harsh instructor. Perhaps they will learn their lessons soon.

#197 fancy_pants on 10.17.17 at 8:07 am

Mark Carney still blowing hot air. what a world

http://thetandd.com/news/world/uk-interest-rates-set-to-rise-as-inflation-hits-percent/article_2d91461b-fb81-58ce-9636-2a09074c975e.html

#198 Wait There on 10.17.17 at 8:12 am

I spent a day going around Vancouver in the last month. I grew up there. It was a beautiful day. Normally the beaches would have been packed….hardly so anymore.
Demographics or why? Locals who went outside are gone.
Then driving around I noted that unlike Toronto, there was an absolute absence of entry level luxury autos. The profile was either econoboxes or really high end luxury. This was everywhere. Either you have the dough or you don’t. Now Vancouver has always been more of the econobox crowd because of what the city is but the growth in super luxury models is interesting. More than what we see in Toronto.
Anecodtally, the average median etc don’t mean much when the distribution of wealth is no longer following the traditional patterns. Historical stats means nothing anymore.

#199 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.17.17 at 8:45 am

#193 Reality 1 on 10.17.17 at 7:26 am
to # 119 Smoking Man

Your assessment of Mr. Butts’ motivations, while perhaps a little crude, are nonetheless ACCURATE.

As is your assessment of Mr. Weinstein’s motivations.

It takes an “outside of the box” thinker to see that.

I have a newfound respect for this Smoking Man’s thought process / critical thinking ability.

Now, if he can only stay lucid….

Anybody that cannot see that , having it so (ineloquently) pointed out, simply has limited critical thinking ability and knows nothing about human psychology / motivation.
——————-
You’re giving the Smoker far too much credit.
Without the help of JD, he is just an ordinary shoe salesman.

#200 james on 10.17.17 at 8:47 am

From emasculated smoking turd’s own words, #119

You are losing it. Put the keyboard down and walk away slowly. — Garth.

I’ve just attached a bump stock devise to my keyboard. Try and take it, only from my cold dead hands.

————————————————————-

Wow, no similar mentality there with the psycho Las Vegas shooter, eh….

Or with the fact that that shooter was a deranged individual who thought he was brilliant, wandering from casino to casino looking for comps in food and accomodations, while wearing flip flops….

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/09/us/las-vegas-stephen-paddock-deposition/index.html

Nope, nothing in common with the turd.

Look away, everyone….

(A duck is never a duck. Of course not!)

#201 Stone on 10.17.17 at 8:48 am

So OSFI came out with their announcement. No surprise however the requalifying at renewal is out. Nothing specific capping TDSR or GDSR percentage limits.

http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/osfi-bsif/med/Pages/B20_dft_nr.aspx

Will this really have teeth? I wonder.

#202 fancy_pants on 10.17.17 at 9:04 am

#134 Leo Trollstoy on 10.16.17 at 9:43 pm

rapid inflation… I agree. I think we will see a $6-8 loaf of bread before rates look anything close to ‘historical’.

#203 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.17.17 at 9:09 am

Stress test to make shysters cry. B-20 should of made Everyone INCLUDING those that had to RE qualify at renewal but we all know mortgage fraud would of been exposed. You dirty SHYSTERS this includes mortgage shysters.

#204 HaHaHa on 10.17.17 at 9:25 am

#119 comment bump stock reference. Wow. Maybe from mind to keyboard something got lost. Not that witty of a comment. SM has gone from entertaining to just a plain drunk loser. What a delusional nutjob. If this offends oh well

#205 MortgageMark on 10.17.17 at 9:31 am

You mention buyers fibbing about the source of their D/P in order to bypass CMHC. Firstly, I’d love those files to be audited. How did the bank verify source of D/P? That said, if the market dips, bank is still safe until close to a drop below that 80% value mark. Would it not be the source of D/P (shady lenders) who would be at risk, if a dip occurs? Bank still has a reasonable buffer, it’s that 20% D/P that is at risk?

#206 Penny Henny on 10.17.17 at 9:32 am

#38 Go away scm on 10.16.17 at 6:40 pm
Scm

Stop talking about boomers in any of your posts

Go away.

//////////////////////////////////

SCM it seems like you are not getting any love today from the blogdogs.
Maybe you should change your name to
Screwed Canadian Unloved Millenial

#207 Ian on 10.17.17 at 9:37 am

HAPPY STRESS TEST EVERYONE!!!!

http://www.bnn.ca/osfi-sets-new-rules-for-mortgage-lending-1.887025

In by 1 Jan 2018! Earlier than I was told. Love it!

Why is SCM back on here?!?

#208 Penny Henny on 10.17.17 at 9:41 am

#63 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.16.17 at 7:20 pm
The weather outside is frightful.
Realtor screams sound delightful.
And since OSFI rules are coming for you.
Let’s SHYSTERS scream! Let them scream! Let them scream!

The crash doesn’t show signs of stoppin’
And I brought some corn for poppin’
The housing lights are turned down low
Let housing crash, let it crash, let it crash.
It’s going to be a Happy HAPPY Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

///////////////////////////

Good to see some creativity from you again. :)

#209 Jeff on 10.17.17 at 9:45 am

4.89% or contract rate + 2%

Nice. But if it’s only taking into effect in 70 days, won’t buyers hurry to buy whatever they can before January 1st?

#210 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.17.17 at 9:49 am

crowdedelevatorfartz I still like yours better but here it goes

Oh, the OSFI B-20 rules are frightful
And realtor screams sound delightful
And since shysters have no sales to go
Let the 2018 Champaign flow, let it flow, let it flow.
Man the financial screams dont show signs of stoppin’
And Happy Housing Crash started laughing
And since housing sales are turned down low
Let it them try to CREAte lies, CREAte lies
We will finally kiss the bubble good-night
I bet the SHYSTERS will put up a good fight.
And their misery will make me glow.
Let’s watch the show, watch the show, watch the show.

Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#211 Ian on 10.17.17 at 9:59 am

US Fed update:

Looks like Kevin Warsh might be toast, and John Taylor the favourite now:

http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=32692

Taylor known for generally wanting higher rates, but it’s a little unclear what would happen if he’s chosen.

#212 Penny Henny on 10.17.17 at 10:01 am

#102 TurnerNation on 10.16.17 at 8:42 pm
Dollarama stock hit new high today. And they are accepting the credit cards.
Massive per-cent price inflation there.
$1 items I’ve bought, now 1.25, 1.50.
////////////////////////////////

Dollorama has become a rip off.
I now go to Dollar Tree. Max price is $1.25

#213 Braj on 10.17.17 at 10:10 am

#1 SCM on 10.16.17 at 5:39 pm
Oh no the Big 5 banks might only make $30 BILLION combined in profits instead of $35 BILLION.

Cry me a river while I play the world’s tiniest violin.

Let it all burn, I say. Couldn’t happen to a worse group of people. This country deserves what’s coming to it.

***

You have mental problems.

#214 Braj on 10.17.17 at 10:14 am

#10 SCM on 10.16.17 at 5:52 pm
Loblaw to lay off 500 office staff in drive to cut costs
Executives and managers will lose jobs in Calgary, Toronto, Winnipeg, Halifax, Montreal
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/loblaw-layoffs-1.4357245

Another 500 hard working Canadian men and women out on the unemployment line to satisfy shareholders.

Makes me sick that people cheer for layoffs, ruined families and destroyed lives just so that their stock can go up a point.

Loblaw Companies Ltd made $983 MILLION in PROFITS last year.

The Boomer/Conservative/Reaganomics ideology of being completely subservient to corporate interests and the wealthy elites has been a giant, colossal failure.

***

Which is why you build emergency funds in case of situations like this. You just want the whole world given to you, don’t you..

Being laid off is not so bad if you are in a decent financial position and are not overextended. I’m sure they got a few months pay anyways. What’s the big deal, they are just cleaning up the operation. A bigger one than you could ever run..

#215 Mattl on 10.17.17 at 10:23 am

So if someone like say Ross Kay calls for a RE correction that finally comes 15 years later, does that make him right on his prediction? I mean shouldn’t there be some sort of time frame on when your prediction has to come true? Lets say you predict a turn in RE in 2010, that turn doesn’t come untill 2020 in YVR, the turn is a slow melt that takes 5 more years to get back to 2015 prices. Does that make a good prediction?

By that time most that bought in 2010 have no mortage, and those waiting for a cheaper real estate have dumped 200-300k in rent and still can’t afford to buy in. Its seems pretty clear to me that those that are on the sidelines will remain there and any correction will benefit a younger generation and even more so current homeowners. A slow melt will create great opportunities for homeowners with expiring mortgages. By the time this correction matures I should be in a position to add an investment property.

#216 Stone on 10.17.17 at 10:28 am

#209 Jeff on 10.17.17 at 9:45 am
4.89% or contract rate + 2%

Nice. But if it’s only taking into effect in 70 days, won’t buyers hurry to buy whatever they can before January 1st?

——

Yes (shakes head in dismay). Yes. They will (this is where I sigh). The willfully blind will think “Oh, limited time offer. Must act quickly. It’s a bargain.” Not like they weren’t warned.

Well, so long as they continue to consume and that translates into further dividends and dividend increases for me, whatever…

Hey, SCM! Did you consume something since last night to contribute to my dividends? You did? That’s good. You’re still useful then. Carry on. LOL

#217 hello on 10.17.17 at 10:29 am

Is it safe to assume the lenders will be forced to fully underwrite their deals at renewal to ensure that they are compliant with the government guidelines on equity, income, ltv, and to ensure no secondary financing.

If so, then 20% decline in prices could be a light price estimate for the decline.

Essentially in the GTA, we have witnessed a 20% decline from the peak. An additional 20%+ decline in the works, and so many will be underwater, forced to sell, or looking to turn to private lenders.

#218 Long Branch Apprentice on 10.17.17 at 10:29 am

DELETED

#219 Braj on 10.17.17 at 10:32 am

#91 TnT on 10.16.17 at 8:22 pm
#71 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.16.17 at 7:29 pm

You are missing the point that SCM has made quite a few times with various posts.

The constant drive for profits is killing the whole system and the pay gap between CEO’s and workers is getting dangerous.

This has been a much discussed topic for many years now, with each year getting worse.

This article comes to mind and its 2 years old.

Memo: From Nick Hanauer
To: My Fellow Zillionaires

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014

The whole system is a mess right now.

SCM is making a point that most here willfully ignore and turn a healthy debate into name calling and finger pointing.

***

How can you claim you know how the system should be?

Get on it then, better start fixing it. SCM and yourself can attack it together!

You are inferring you deserve more money, and others don’t (the rich guys). Get outta here you commie ;)

Have you heard of something called the Pareto Distribution? This will explain to your brain why this divide exists.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_distribution

#220 Spock on 10.17.17 at 10:35 am

@ Stone: I thought that the folks will be stuck with their current lender because on renewal if they go to any other lender they will have to go through the same stress test. I think that still stands today.

If at the same lender then I do not recollect reading that they would have had to go through the stress test on renewal.

Kindly correct if the above is wrong.

———————–
#201 Stone on 10.17.17 at 8:48 am
So OSFI came out with their announcement. No surprise however the requalifying at renewal is out. Nothing specific capping TDSR or GDSR percentage limits.

http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/osfi-bsif/med/Pages/B20_dft_nr.aspx

Will this really have teeth? I wonder.

#221 TnT on 10.17.17 at 10:36 am

#157 Smoking Man on 10.16.17 at 10:30 pm
Economic Nationalism Canadians.

The globalists are evil wolves with a sheepskin jacket that they hide behind, they created feel-good words that teachers pounded into the kid’s heads for years.

Thank God I’m dyslexic. I’m coming for you teachers, Not one of you educated bitches will take me on.

Winning

****

This doesn’t concern anyone?

Yuk it up cowards….

Can’t wait for Millennials to take the driver seat.

#222 Victor V on 10.17.17 at 10:45 am

#201 Stone

B20 will force borrowers to stay with their existing mortgage lenders at renewal. If the Bank that their current mortgage is at knows that they won’t qualify for a mortgage at a competitor, what are they going to offer them?

#223 Braj on 10.17.17 at 10:51 am

#104 Smoking Man on 10.16.17 at 8:47 pm
WAR

The conservatives need to start hammering a message of Economic Nationalism. Welcome any color, creed, or sexual orientation. We need to Build Energy East.

We need to stop the globalists dead in their tracks. While T2 sells our country and our wealth for pennies on the Dollar, Trump is doing the exact opposite.

I discovered Siriusxm Chanel 125, Patriot Radio. I found heaven. So connected with there views.

Does anyone out there know anyone at Breitbart? I’m willing to fund and start a Chapter in Canada. Email me. [email protected]

I’ve had enough of these liberal mental midgets who are too stupid to know they are getting gamed. Or maybe a big payoff from the Saudis down the road. Flip a coin.

I’ve had enough, our rehab center isn’t even open yet, don’t get the building until Nov 1st and we could fill it today.

The Fentynaol epidemic killing our kids is an invention of the Globalists. If you do business with any company whose CEO goes to Davos, stop giving them your business. If you work for them. Quit.

This is WAR

You are losing it. Put the keyboard down and walk away slowly. — Garth

***

I don’t think so Garth, there are reputable and intelligent folk who are denouncing certain actions by our government and various parties in Canada that have gone too far left.

– Anti-racial bias training at major institutions?
– Anti-islamophobia?
– Compelled speech laws?
– Gender equality? Please google gender unicorn, this is being shown in schools to kids..
– Taxation based on gender?
– Monetarily rewarding dysfunctional families (single mothers, have more kids etc)

There is more but this is stuff you can google and see plenty of examples of.

There will be a clash between the left and the right, there has been research showing recently the divide between the two is larger than ever.

#224 Brian on 10.17.17 at 11:10 am

Said it many times before. BoC doesn’t need to raise rates. If US Fed continues on its trajectory you’re either paying more for your mortgage or more to live as the loonie falls. A couple of interest rate hikes and the loonie jumps 10%. Thanks to the globalist elites those who have taken on big mortgages are toast either way. And no, rent won’t cover your mortgage payments as you can only raise rent by so much

#225 Tony on 10.17.17 at 11:16 am

Anyone thinking of buying 30 year Government of Canada its never too late. I bought plenty last week. I expect interest rates to fall in America and fall quite a bit more in Canada.

#226 Braj on 10.17.17 at 11:24 am

#137 Long Branch Apprentice on 10.16.17 at 9:47 pm
You think things are bad now, wait til Universal basic Income saps the last drop of motivation from a generation already sapped by anti-depressants and video games.

Wife is due any day now, nothing like replicant to wash away any vestiges of nihilism.

Block chain. The revolution started awhile ago but most of you are too busy participating in the Opression Olympics to notice.

Teachers taught you to try and save the world, that only ends in bitterness. Only thing you can save is staring at you in the mirror.

Antifa will be a household name after Nov. 4th.

***

What makes you say this?

What is your plan for crypto?

#227 Duke on 10.17.17 at 11:25 am

I don’t know why everyone here is condemning SCM. He/she has a valid point.

#228 TnT on 10.17.17 at 11:30 am

#223 Braj on 10.17.17 at 10:51 am

There is more but this is stuff you can google and see plenty of examples of.

That is your problem Braj…

You GOOGLE for answers.

Find a better way to learn.

#229 Duke on 10.17.17 at 11:32 am

#220 Spock on 10.17.17 at 10:35 am
@ Stone: I thought that the folks will be stuck with their current lender because on renewal if they go to any other lender they will have to go through the same stress test. I think that still stands today.

If at the same lender then I do not recollect reading that they would have had to go through the stress test on renewal.

Kindly correct if the above is wrong.

———————–

Even at renewal, if the property value has gone down, banks will send an appraiser to get a new LTV, so the lender will have to add significant amount of money to cover the difference.

What banks have to (and want to) do is reducing risks with their assets (mortgages).

#230 Tony on 10.17.17 at 11:36 am

Mentioned in the OSFI stress test is:

Should interest rates rise significantly, OSFI is prepared to “revisit” the stress test, Mr. Rudin said, but he expects the new rules to be “durable” in the near term. Yet some industry observers wonder whether the regulator is equipped to respond quickly enough to rising rates.

Yet they don’t mention what will happen if and when interest rates fall which they will.

#231 Stone on 10.17.17 at 11:39 am

Hi Spock.

I see it the same way as you. They will be stuck with their current lender if they can’t qualify at another FI should they try to negotiate better pricing at renewal. As a result, I see the FIs getting much tighter on how much of a discount they’re willing to provide to those who are borderline (I’m sure the FIs have algorithms that can figure who should be considered a higher risk at renewal and charge rates accordingly without doing a full application. Also, they can figure out by postal code where house prices are at renewal and factor that in too. They do have the means to do that fairly easily). That could mean those with a lower TDSR and GDSR at inception will get better rate discounts as they have flexibility to walk across the street to the competitor while the rest will possibly find themselves at or near the posted rate. Actually, that’s a good thing as the good credit risks will be rewarded with lower rates while the higher risks will pay more. That may deter future spending beyond their means.

I just don’t know how big of an impact on house prices this will have though. Higher risk clients may walk over to a non federally regulated lender like a credit union to bypass this issue unless that regulator is working in tandem with the OSFI regulator. We’ll just have to wait and see. I do hope for a big haircut but only time will tell.

——

#220 Spock on 10.17.17 at 10:35 am
@ Stone: I thought that the folks will be stuck with their current lender because on renewal if they go to any other lender they will have to go through the same stress test. I think that still stands today.

If at the same lender then I do not recollect reading that they would have had to go through the stress test on renewal.

Kindly correct if the above is wrong.

———————–
#201 Stone on 10.17.17 at 8:48 am
So OSFI came out with their announcement. No surprise however the requalifying at renewal is out. Nothing specific capping TDSR or GDSR percentage limits.

http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/osfi-bsif/med/Pages/B20_dft_nr.aspx

Will this really have teeth? I wonder.

#232 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.17 at 11:52 am

@#227 Duke
” don’t know why everyone here is condemning SCM….”

*******

a visceral, pathological dislike of the millennial message?

#233 the ryguy on 10.17.17 at 12:01 pm

#216 Stone on 10.17.17 at 10:28 am
————————————————-

So my previous landlords (also friends) just got out of debt by selling the place I had rented for the last 3 years In edmonton.

He tells me yesterday, “remember that lot I wanted to buy in the summer you talked me out of…well its available again and Im gonna buy it & build”

I kid you not 4 weeks ago they were worried their house wouldn’t sell, and because of all the “rule changes” that I had explained to them were coming, & that they wouldn’t get much over what they owed next spring.

Now they plan on building. I didn’t even bother trying this time, just shook my head. So yeah, some people (probably most) really are that stupid.

#234 Stone on 10.17.17 at 12:10 pm

#225 Tony on 10.17.17 at 11:16 am
Anyone thinking of buying 30 year Government of Canada its never too late. I bought plenty last week. I expect interest rates to fall in America and fall quite a bit more in Canada.

——

Is that a new investing trend? Buy high. Sell low? I think a quote from Russell Peters is suitable here. “You gonna hurt reeeaal baaad!”

I hope you put everything in that. Major ouch! I’ll give you a call in a few years just before we hit the next recession and I’ll buy that off you then at a super duper discount.

You do realize why they sold 30 year bonds now? Gouvernment = winner. You = not. Good luck to you. I may well be wrong.

#235 Victor V on 10.17.17 at 12:26 pm

Canada watchdog sets new mortgage rules, acknowledges risks

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-banking-watchdog-sets-rules-125514047.html

OSFI superintendent Jeremy Rudin said the measures would create a safer market for federally regulated lenders, such as the country’s biggest banks, which account for about 80 percent of Canada’s C$1.4 trillion ($1.1 trillion) mortgage market.

Asked if the proportion of borrowers using non-federally regulated lenders will increase, Rudin said: “We certainly see that as a possible outcome. How much is not something we’re able to predict.”

He added: “We’re very aware of the potential migration risk but that does not change our mind that this is a valuable initiative”.

#236 aa3 on 10.17.17 at 12:27 pm

When people are buying long term government debt at below the rate of inflation – and inflation is actually below the stated target rate.. that is the time for the Federal Government to run large deficits.

#237 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 12:29 pm

#91 TnT on 10.16.17 at 8:22 pm
#71 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.16.17 at 7:29 pm

You are missing the point that SCM has made quite a few times with various posts.

The constant drive for profits is killing the whole system and the pay gap between CEO’s and workers is getting dangerous.

This has been a much discussed topic for many years now, with each year getting worse.

This article comes to mind and its 2 years old.

Memo: From Nick Hanauer
To: My Fellow Zillionaires

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014

The whole system is a mess right now.

SCM is making a point that most here willfully ignore and turn a healthy debate into name calling and finger pointing.

————

How am I missing her point? I get it intuitively but I disagree that it’s “killing” the system.

This is called capitalism.

Do you see the top 20% of income earners? Did you know that those who earn less have a very GOOD chance of one day getting to the top 20%?

Read this for more knowledge: http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2014/05/05/308380342/most-americans-make-it-to-the-top-20-percent-at-least-for-a-while

#238 Ian on 10.17.17 at 12:30 pm

#224 Brian
#225 Tony

Really? Before you know who the new US Fed Chair will be and what they will do?

If they keep raising BoC follows.

#239 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 12:31 pm

#94 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 10.16.17 at 8:28 pm
#71 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.16.17 at 7:29 pm

Thank you for admitting that massively profitable corporations suppress wages and leave Canadians unemployed to boost profits (no sh*t right). That was my entire point. It’s almost like the system is screwed up.

———-

No, it’s not called suppressing wages. It’s called free market.

Everybody has a chance to do something with their lives. Some people get lucky, some work hard, and some are just lazy. That is life and it’s not fair.

Welcome to the real world.

PS: Are you under 25? Between 25 and 30? Or over 30? Very curious to see your age range and hope that you share.

#240 JohnnyBoy on 10.17.17 at 12:31 pm

#223 Braj on 10.17.17 at 10:51 am

#104 Smoking Man on 10.16.17 at 8:47 pm
WAR
The conservatives need to start hammering a message of Economic Nationalism. Welcome any color, creed, or sexual orientation. We need to Build Energy East.
We need to stop the globalists dead in their tracks. While T2 sells our country and our wealth for pennies on the Dollar, Trump is doing the exact opposite.
I discovered Siriusxm Chanel 125, Patriot Radio. I found heaven. So connected with there views.
Does anyone out there know anyone at Breitbart? I’m willing to fund and start a Chapter in Canada. Email me. [email protected]
I’ve had enough of these liberal mental midgets who are too stupid to know they are getting gamed. Or maybe a big payoff from the Saudis down the road. Flip a coin.
I’ve had enough, our rehab center isn’t even open yet, don’t get the building until Nov 1st and we could fill it today.
The Fentynaol epidemic killing our kids is an invention of the Globalists. If you do business with any company whose CEO goes to Davos, stop giving them your business. If you work for them. Quit.
This is WAR
You are losing it. Put the keyboard down and walk away slowly. — Garth
***********************************
I don’t think so Garth, there are reputable and intelligent folk who are denouncing certain actions by our government and various parties in Canada that have gone too far left.
– Anti-racial bias training at major institutions?
– Anti-islamophobia?
– Compelled speech laws?
– Gender equality? Please google gender unicorn, this is being shown in schools to kids..
– Taxation based on gender?
– Monetarily rewarding dysfunctional families (single mothers, have more kids etc)
There is more but this is stuff you can google and see plenty of examples of.
There will be a clash between the left and the right, there has been research showing recently the divide between the two is larger than ever.
………………………………………………………………..
Mother Mary, I had to google the “Gender Unicorn” What idiot came up with this load of BS. I know I hear the crap that they teach my three little ones here in the city every day. When they come home and tell me what the teacher says, I politely and very sensitively tell them that what the teacher told them is what the teachers are told to tell you. They say it is OK for two mommies & two daddies to live together and I so I say that is good for them we are different and that this is the way our family is supposed to be. Not like what they say! We are Italian Catholic and we have told the school board and the teachers if you teach our children and gender changing and gay bias then we are going to counter everything that you say and tell our children what we believe in.We have told our children that you don’t have to believe what the teacher says but you can not make fun of other children who believe it because they are allowed to believe in what their mommy and daddy tell them. We have said that we don’t particularly care if anyone wants to be gay or trans but we don’t perpetuate it and that it is not your job to tell our children what to become. That is our job, if our children eventually want to become gay or trans when they are adults then that is their decision and they have come to that conclusion on their own.

#241 Victor V on 10.17.17 at 12:32 pm

Mortgage brokers on facebook are beginning to freak out. This will not end well.

https://www.facebook.com/mortgagejake/posts/1709619062406263

This morning, OSFI, who is the mortgage police, announced that all mortgages regardless of down payment amount, have to qualify at 2% HIGHER than the rate on your contract OR the “MQR”, or. Mortgage Qualifying Rate.

Whichever is higher.

That last part is a real kick to the rear. “Whichever is higher”. Great. Make it EVEN HARDER than you initially suggested.

If you previously could qualify for $650,000 you can now qualify for $510,000.

http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/osfi-bsif/med/Pages/B20_dft_nr.aspx

If you’re in the mood to buy something, GET PRE-QUALIFIED TODAY as these changes happen January 1st (or before).

Yikes. #MICDROP

#242 Stone on 10.17.17 at 12:36 pm

#222 Victor V on 10.17.17 at 10:45 am
#201 Stone

B20 will force borrowers to stay with their existing mortgage lenders at renewal. If the Bank that their current mortgage is at knows that they won’t qualify for a mortgage at a competitor, what are they going to offer them?

—-

An offer they can’t refuse. LOL. An offer that will line the pockets of their bank increasing their dividends which eventually get delivered to all investors who own shares or related ETFs. Than you very much!

#243 Victor V on 10.17.17 at 12:49 pm

http://www.bnn.ca/what-housing-industry-experts-are-saying-about-osfi-s-new-rules-1.887277

Tim Hudak, CEO, Ontario Real Estate Association:

“While realtors support a sensibly regulated real estate market, OSFI’s new stress test for uninsured mortgages is overkill. These changes will hurt middle class families and punish careful savers the most, forcing them to take on more debt and higher interest payments. It’s time for governments to hit the brakes on more demand side policy interventions and take a wait and see approach.”

#244 The Banks will rejoice on 10.17.17 at 12:53 pm

The biggest winners in all this?

The banks.

Now, the bank that holds your mortgage has very little incentive to offer you a good deal at renewal.
It will be harder for you to switch, as switching means a new stress test that you may not pass.
This is especially the case if equity dropped, or if you can’t afford the higher rates.

Banks that currently hold a lot of mortgages are now free to squeeze more money out of their customers.
So load up on Canadian Bank stocks, so you can at least profit a little from their gain and the customer’s pain.

Overall, not a smart move by OSFI.

#245 Dissident on 10.17.17 at 12:56 pm

RE – #137 Long Branch Apprentice on 10.16.17 at 9:47 pm

You think things are bad now, wait til Universal basic Income saps the last drop of motivation from a generation already sapped by anti-depressants and video games.

Wife is due any day now, nothing like replicant to wash away any vestiges of nihilism.

Block chain. The revolution started awhile ago but most of you are too busy participating in the Opression Olympics to notice.

Teachers taught you to try and save the world, that only ends in bitterness. Only thing you can save is staring at you in the mirror.

Antifa will be a household name after Nov. 4th.

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

*clap clap* lots of truth here. Yup, teachers will tell you to save the world when all you should be doing is saving yourself. Once I realized this, I related to the world a lot better. Especially when you’re born an idealist to begin with. (Take note, SCM).

LOL, “replicant”. Nice word for your offspring. I’ll have to use that with the husband.

***BTW @ Long Branch Apprentice – how can li’l ol’ me invest in the Block Chain??? (Or are you just referring to buying up some bitcoin?) Just thought I’d ask.

RE: Antifa and Nov 4th, you’ve got me curious. My inner anarchist is twitching. What’s special about the date?

Not related – I printed off this article a year ago and have been referring to it on and off to see how true the ‘predictions’ have been…one guy claims the ‘downturn’ will start with a ‘housing recession’…well, we already kinda have that. With more predicted stuff happening late 2017, early 2018. Who knows what that is in actuality. Interestingly, China is combating their debt by restricting monetary outflows. So that’s one prediction that is being reversed, maybe for the time being. Anyways, its about as fun to read as your horoscope, if you enjoy that kind of stuff, or, you know, reading GreaterFool, lol.
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/investing/these-three-investing-legends-are-warning-of-another-market-crash/

#246 When the Whip Comes Down on 10.17.17 at 12:56 pm

Ratehub’s number crunching on what families can afford now on 100K income versus January 1/18 are pretty scary. With 20% down they are max house affordability under the current status quo of $726,000. Come January, that changes to $570,000. Wow that is a lot less home and in some market you can’t even get a home for $570K

#247 n1tro on 10.17.17 at 12:58 pm

#227 Duke on 10.17.17 at 11:25 am
I don’t know why everyone here is condemning SCM. He/she has a valid point.
—————————–
And what would that point be?

That banks are evil and deserve to be losing money when it is really the consumers who have overleveraged themselves?

Or that trickle down economics doesn’t work while not stating that trickle up economics also doesn’t work?

For someone who claims to make $170K a year, you are scum according to SCM depending on the following:

1. Have a TFSA and have maxed it out
2. Is an entrepreneur and write off expenses
3. Is over a certain age or have certain views
4. Being anything but born and bred white Canadian
5. Don’t feel sorry about yourself and actually tries to succeed

#248 PastThePeak on 10.17.17 at 1:04 pm

#215 Mattl
By that time most that bought in 2010 have no mortgage
====================================

Not sure too many people that took on a $500k+ mortgage would have that paid off in 10 years. Good on you if you did.

#249 Victor V on 10.17.17 at 1:04 pm

https://www.wsj.com/articles/canada-imposes-tougher-mortgage-rules-effective-2018-1508248798

Robert McLister, founder of the Canadian mortgage-rate comparison site RateSpy.com, said the new rules target the fastest-growing part of the mortgage market—uninsured mortgages—and could affect one out of every six prospective home buyers. In Canada, mortgage insurance is mandatory unless the buyer has a down payment of 20% and over.

“This is easily the most groundshaking mortgage rule of all time, and that’s not an understatement,” Mr. McLister said in an interview.

#250 PastThePeak on 10.17.17 at 1:05 pm

Get ready for a housing surge between now and the end of the year.

…and get ready for the market to really decline (at least from a sales perspective) right after that.

#251 Dissident on 10.17.17 at 1:07 pm

#137 Long Branch Apprentice on 10.16.17 at 9:47 pm

Hmmm, Snopes claims no Antifa ‘war’ is scheduled for Nov. 4th. http://www.snopes.com/is-antifa-planning-a-civil-war/

That falls into the ‘too rad to be true’ category.

#252 IHCTD9 on 10.17.17 at 1:11 pm

#223 Braj on 10.17.17 at 10:51 am

#104 Smoking Man on 10.16.17 at 8:47 pm
WAR

_______________________

The smart thing to do would be making a concerted effort to avoid funding the government. I mean any and all government being run by any or all parties.

Beats armed combat in the streets no? Puts cold hard cash in your wallet – and defunds the blockheads in Ottawa at the same time, win-win.

#253 Dissident on 10.17.17 at 1:17 pm

#137 Long Branch Apprentice on 10.16.17 at 9:47 pm

Lol, this point made me laugh.

“2. Refuse Fascism Is Organizing the Nov. 4 Event and Wants the Protest to Be Reminiscent of the January Women’s March”

http://heavy.com/news/2017/09/november-4-2017-protests-anti-trump-plans-refuse-fascism-what-is-happening-antifa-event/

Seriously, good luck to Antifa in harnessing the same level of seething rage produced by centuries of oppression of women. We’ve spent our entire lifetimes getting angry at the system. Antifa’s had…all of a nine month Trump presidency. I’ll believe it when I see it. ;)

#254 TurnerNation on 10.17.17 at 1:21 pm

Penny Henny should be Dollar Henny due to inflationary pressure?
Only Dollarama downtown near me.
Bot Dol kaputs at this level… $140 is good enough
Level.

@Tony TLT.US still rising.

#255 MF on 10.17.17 at 1:23 pm

#232 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.17 at 11:52 am

“The millennial message”?

How many times do we have to remind you that not all millennials are like this SCM troll. I’m so tired of hearing about their posts (and all the idiots falling for it by condemning “millennials”.

Say what was the hippie message back in the 60’s?? Stick it to the man yet fartz?

MF

#256 Smoking Man on 10.17.17 at 1:36 pm

DELETED

#257 Smoking Man on 10.17.17 at 1:45 pm

Mexico, Canada Said To “Firmly Reject” US NAFTA Proposals

#258 Mike in Edmonton on 10.17.17 at 1:46 pm

OSFI – “Guideline B-20 now requires the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages to be the greater of the five-year benchmark rate published by the Bank of Canada or the contractual mortgage rate +2%.”

So does that mean that the 2% is getting tacked on to either rates (contract or benchmark), or is it whatever is higher when comparing contract + 2% or Benchmark + 0% ????

It means what it says. The qualifying rate (4.86%) or the current rate +2% – whichever is more. Serious stuff. — Garth

#259 april on 10.17.17 at 1:52 pm

#243 – All the realtors really care about is their commission…lower sales less commission.

#260 Smoking Man on 10.17.17 at 1:54 pm

Globalism = Poverty

Fight it with everything you have.

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2017/10/globalization-is-poverty/

#261 Stone on 10.17.17 at 1:57 pm

#243 Victor V on 10.17.17 at 12:49 pm
http://www.bnn.ca/what-housing-industry-experts-are-saying-about-osfi-s-new-rules-1.887277

Tim Hudak, CEO, Ontario Real Estate Association:

“While realtors support a sensibly regulated real estate market, OSFI’s new stress test for uninsured mortgages is overkill. These changes will hurt middle class families and punish careful savers the most, forcing them to take on more debt and higher interest payments. It’s time for governments to hit the brakes on more demand side policy interventions and take a wait and see approach.”

—-

So happy I never voted for him or his party. A real doorknob who will parrot whatever anyone pays him to say, even if it hurts people. How can anyone trust anything coming out of his mouth?

#262 TnT on 10.17.17 at 2:06 pm

#240 JohnnyBoy on 10.17.17 at 12:31 pm

We are Italian Catholic and we have told the school board and the teachers if you teach our children and gender changing and gay bias then we are going to counter everything that you say and tell our children what we believe in.

****

And that would be “God”?

You can touch, see, hear and reason with a Gay person but would rather believe in a God?

Funny how the world works….

#263 TnT on 10.17.17 at 2:12 pm

#237 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 12:29 pm

How am I missing her point? I get it intuitively but I disagree that it’s “killing” the system.

This is called capitalism.

Do you see the top 20% of income earners? Did you know that those who earn less have a very GOOD chance of one day getting to the top 20%?

Read this for more knowledge: http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2014/05/05/308380342/most-americans-make-it-to-the-top-20-percent-at-least-for-a-while

****

Thanks for the article, had you actually read it, it would support SCM.

The American Dream is dying was linked in your posted article.

http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/

#264 Pre-retiree on 10.17.17 at 2:13 pm

The Liberals and the small business tax cut
Andrew Coyne finally gets it right:

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/andrew-coyne-small-business-tax-reform-reveals-trudeau-morneau-as-middle-class-phonies

#265 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 2:19 pm

#263 TnT on 10.17.17 at 2:12 pm
#237 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 12:29 pm

How am I missing her point? I get it intuitively but I disagree that it’s “killing” the system.

This is called capitalism.

Do you see the top 20% of income earners? Did you know that those who earn less have a very GOOD chance of one day getting to the top 20%?

Read this for more knowledge: http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2014/05/05/308380342/most-americans-make-it-to-the-top-20-percent-at-least-for-a-while

****

Thanks for the article, had you actually read it, it would support SCM.

The American Dream is dying was linked in your posted article.

http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/

————

I think of it from a glass half-full perspective: more than 50% of those who’re WILLING to work hard are ABLE to and have a good chance of earning more than their parents.

Poverty, as a whole, has declined significantly over the last few decades.

The “poor” person today has amenities that the richest king could only dream of mere 150 years ago.

Yes, the relative gap between the rich and poor is increasing but in terms of absolutely wealth, the poor is much better off than they were few decades ago.

Why? Capitalism.

#266 IHCTD9 on 10.17.17 at 2:26 pm

#262 TnT on 10.17.17 at 2:06 pm

And that would be “God”?

You can touch, see, hear and reason with a Gay person but would rather believe in a God?

Funny how the world works….

______________________________________

Would you like an absolutely exhaustive list of things you can’t touch, see, hear or sense in any way shape or form that still exist anyway?

#267 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.17.17 at 2:31 pm

261 Stone

What funny is that they ask “The experts” when has Tim Hudak been an expert? He is a paid shill like you said

#268 NoName on 10.17.17 at 2:37 pm

@ james

That is low, new est low of all comments so far. Drawing conclusions like that, and making stuff up, sad very sad. Now I wonder do you teach you R kids to fabricate truts…

And that bumpstock I a way less deadly compared to vacum aspiration device. Leave resident flip flop wearer troll alone on this one. Why don’t you address am issue of abortion of girls” in our country, james.

#269 Ole Doberman on 10.17.17 at 2:41 pm

DELETED

#270 IHCTD9 on 10.17.17 at 2:41 pm

#253 Dissident on 10.17.17 at 1:17 pm

Seriously, good luck to Antifa in harnessing the same level of seething rage produced by centuries of oppression of women. We’ve spent our entire lifetimes getting angry at the system.
____________________________

Seething rage from centuries of oppression of Women?

That’s a good one! Maybe a bit overblown, but I still dig it. I’ll bet SCM likes it too.

Oppression of Men however, – now that’s some serious business, and my heart goes out to the oppressed Men of the world where ever they are. My wallet is open too, once someone starts up a charity dedicated to restoring male victims to their former glory.

#271 Overheardyou on 10.17.17 at 2:42 pm

#10 SCM on 10.16.17 at 5:52 pm
Loblaw to lay off 500 office staff in drive to cut costs
Executives and managers will lose jobs in Calgary, Toronto, Winnipeg, Halifax, Montreal
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/loblaw-layoffs-1.4357245

Another 500 hard working Canadian men and women out on the unemployment line to satisfy shareholders.

Makes me sick that people cheer for layoffs, ruined families and destroyed lives just so that their stock can go up a point.

Loblaw Companies Ltd made $983 MILLION in PROFITS last year.

The Boomer/Conservative/Reaganomics ideology of being completely subservient to corporate interests and the wealthy elites has been a giant, colossal failure.

—-

You think that’s unfair? Really? Why do people start companies. To make MONEY. Don’t like it? Don’t buy from them, go find a place where money isn’t important cause last I checked the world we live in runs on it.

Oh also, here’s a fact for you. Civil workers will spend money that is not their own with no guilt or regret. I have a friend who works with the City of Toronto, event planning. Their budget for one event was $25K. They didn’t need it but they spent it on excess items and lavish goods, so that the budget for the next event won’t be cut because they ‘need’ it. When there’s excess guess where it goes? and you think wealthy elites are the problem.

You really make me laugh.

#272 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.17.17 at 2:44 pm

Hey dirty SHYSTERS why are you kicking and screaming like little babies? I thought b-20 was nothing?

#273 anc0dia on 10.17.17 at 2:46 pm

http://www.bnn.ca/what-housing-industry-experts-are-saying-about-osfi-s-new-rules-1.887277

Tim Hudak, CEO, Ontario Real Estate Association:

“forcing them to take on more debt and higher interest payments.”

How does reducing the amount a person can borrow force them to take on more debt? Is this guy really that big an idiot? Wow what a fool. Did they legalize smoking marijuana for OREA employees before the rest of us?

#274 jess on 10.17.17 at 2:55 pm

boohoo
On the Hustle! 100 BBC stars face HMRC probe after taxman lands self-employed actor Robert Glenister with a £147,547 bill for 10 years of National Insurance contributions (16 Oct 2017)

Acting star Robert Glenister worked through a personal services company. He lost a case against the HMRC over the level of National Insurance he paysThe HMRC claimed the actor should be treated as an employee for tax purposesThe actor criticised the ruling and said he considering lodging an appeal

=====
Watchdog warns City on using shell companies to access EU (ft)

Labour takes aim at tax havens as £13TRILLION of UK firms’ assets squirrelled away offshore

Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell says Labour would insist all firms operating in Britain with more than 250 staff must declare full worldwide assets, allowing them to be taxed on those assets

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-takes-aim-tax-havens-11343866

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4980342/Hustle-star-Robert-Glenister-stung-150k-tax-bill.html#ixzz4vnC7zpH0

#275 Toronto1 on 10.17.17 at 3:02 pm

@#246 When the whip comes down

Guess what the price of those $726 000 homes will be by June 2018? At $570 000, anyone bying now on a pre approval must be insane.

A little fact lost on most people is that the biggest determining factor in the price of RE is not location, type etc. Its the amount of credit that someone is willing to extend to make that purchase.

House prices just dropped 20% today, sucks if you brought multiple properties on leverage.

I except too see some aggressive pricing over the next 2 months by the savy ones who need to get out, after Jan 2018 things will move down in a way that made this year look like childs play.

#276 TnT on 10.17.17 at 3:18 pm

#265 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 2:19 pm

I think of it from a glass half-full perspective: more than 50% of those who’re WILLING to work hard are ABLE to and have a good chance of earning more than their parents.

****
Same article says it use to be 90% and now it’s 50%

So we are trending towards 0%

Capitalism is the best system we have on earth and it is dying here because it is not balanced within our boarders.

If you love this “free capitalist world” then we all need to be mindful of how easy it can disappear.

We are already trending towards more State Control as a counter to this imbalance.

Many examples of Free Markets being replaced by State Control.

Best we fix it before the torches & pitchforks come out.

#277 TnT on 10.17.17 at 3:22 pm

#266 IHCTD9 on 10.17.17 at 2:26 pm

Would you like an absolutely exhaustive list of things you can’t touch, see, hear or sense in any way shape or form that still exist anyway?

***

Sure, give me a list of things you can’t touch, see, hear or sense in any way shape or form that still exist anyway THAT is more important than a human being.

#278 jess on 10.17.17 at 3:22 pm

interest rate rise

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2017/09/27/global-financial-stability-report-october-2017

=========================

Why Investors Can’t Get Enough of Tajikistan’s Debt

By LANDON THOMAS Jr.OCT. 17, 2017 (nyt)
developing nations issued a record $133 billion in debt, according to Bond Radar, a data gathering outfit. Bankers have forecast another stellar year in 2017, approaching $150 billion — an amount that is nearly twice what was raised in 2015. The I.M.F. warned last week that this rush to snap up the debt of financially fragile countries could end badly. Many of these countries are already burdened with high levels of debt, and analysts fear that as they issue more they will be unable to meet financing requirements if interest rates rise sharply.

#279 Dissident on 10.17.17 at 3:27 pm

Awe! #270 IHCTD9 on 10.17.17 at 2:41 pm

This one’s for you, bro. Chin up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zR39RBydVyM

#280 the ryguy on 10.17.17 at 3:30 pm

“While realtors support a sensibly regulated real estate market, OSFI’s new stress test for uninsured mortgages is overkill. These changes will hurt middle class families and punish careful savers the most, forcing them to take on more debt and higher interest payments. It’s time for governments to hit the brakes on more demand side policy interventions and take a wait and see approach.”
—————————————————————

God what a flake this guy is.

You know who this hurts..realtors, mortgage brokers & dummies.

If you’re in the first 2, hope you saved enough during the run up.

If you’re a dummy and bought too high, you deserve it. The signs were everywhere.

“oh but moving every year sucks”, then pay someone to do it for you with the money you would save by not paying property taxes, and then some.

“I have a family”, yeah and how is succumbing to unliveable debt levels helping them?

“I own ‘X’ amount of properties and cant move them”, you signed your name dummy, that has ramifications.

ZERO SYMPATHY from me. Ive wanted to buy a forever home, and could have afforded it for the last few years. But I didn’t, because in my gut I knew something was wrong. And when the gut feeling got to be too much, I googled and tried to figure out what was happening. Couple hours later I decided no way no how.

If you didn’t do that, and just signed your name, then you are a dummy.

#281 AnumGee on 10.17.17 at 3:32 pm

This is a non-event.

#282 SCM on 10.17.17 at 3:40 pm

I love how Garth got mad at me for telling the truth that certain boomers/conservatives, whatever you want to call yourselves (parasites maybe?), take glee when massively profitable corporations destroy lives and put hard working Canadians out on the unemployment line. All so your stock can go up by a point. I see plenty of examples in the comment section here, confirming what I was banned for pointing out.

The most hilarious part to me is that in the next thread, you will complain about your taxes going up. You want corporations making hundreds of millions and billions in profits to leave masses of Canadians unemployed, under-employed, wages suppressed, and then you complain that the government has to pick up the tab via EI, social assistance, lower tax revenues, etc. Your dividends should be taxed 90% to pay for the consequences of your cruelty and greed. Still wouldn’t be anywhere near enough.

I don’t know what’s more rotted out. Your brains, or your hearts. Some of you people aren’t even human.

The next ban will be a life sentence. Dial it back. — Garth

#283 Manitoba Whaler on 10.17.17 at 3:41 pm

#265 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 2:19 pm
…Yes, the relative gap between the rich and poor is increasing but in terms of absolutely wealth, the poor is much better off than they were few decades ago.

Why? Capitalism.
*****

Thank you.
Your post says it all and is undeniable.

#284 jess on 10.17.17 at 3:56 pm

Caruana Galizia: Anti-corruption warrior here is her blog

“She alleged that the wife of Maltese PM Joseph Muscat was the beneficial owner of a secret Panama company used to channel funds from Azerbaijan’s ruling Aliyev family.”

Amy Wilson-Chapman — October 16, 2017

Journalists worldwide are mourning the loss of influential investigative journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia after she was murdered when a bomb blast tore apart her car in Malta on Monday.

Caruana Galizia has been at the forefront of important investigations in the public interest and has exposed offshore dealings of prominent political figures in Malta.

==
“letter-box subsidiaries”

Is Malta really Europe’s ‘pirate base’ for tax?
By Herman Grech Malta

25 May 2017
From the section

“While local businesses must pay 35% on profits, international corporations profit from a corporation tax rate of as little as 5%, thanks to a complex system where shareholders can receive a tax refund of up to six-sevenths of their tax paid in Malta. The average rate in the EU is around 22”
So why should that upset the EU?
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40026826

#285 concerned on 10.17.17 at 3:57 pm

#275 Toronto1 on 10.17.17 at 3:02 pm
@#246 When the whip comes down

Guess what the price of those $726 000 homes will be by June 2018? At $570 000, anyone bying now on a pre approval must be insane.

A little fact lost on most people is that the biggest determining factor in the price of RE is not location, type etc. Its the amount of credit that someone is willing to extend to make that purchase.
___________________________________________

Except a problem exists here which will come to light–everyone was expecting that rules were and are being followed everywhere. . .what everyone will find out is that this market is being propped up by vast quantities of money, illegal and otherwise flowing in from overseas.

Dare I be so bold as to say that prices will continue to rise and rise without and end in sight?

Wait and see. . .

#286 Tazi Bnu on 10.17.17 at 4:04 pm

#169 paulo on 10.16.17 at 11:22 pm
Airbus Industries purchases 50.01% interest in bombardier C-Series Jet !

Looks like Boeing will regret there attempt to kill it
__________________________________________

Instead Airbus got the “kill,” they own the only part of Bombardier that could turn the company around. Bombardier sold themselves out of all the up side, but still have all the delivery risk. They seem to have a problem with delivery with their trains right now. This was not a win for Bombardier, Quebec, or Canada. It’s a win for Airbus. they get half the profit with very little of the risk.

#287 jess on 10.17.17 at 4:08 pm

Doesn’t Canada use this kaspersky lab also?

Hackers.
Russian government hackers used an antivirus software made by a Russian company, Kaspersky Lab, to search computers around the world for the code names of American intelligence programs. People at nearly two dozen American government agencies including the State Department, Justice Department and Treasury Department were among the software’s 400 million users. Those agencies are under an order to remove the Kaspersky software. The Russian operation stole classified documents from a National Security Agency employee who had improperly stored them on his home computer. Israeli intelligence uncovered the breach and alerted the United States.” (DCReport.org)

#288 aa3 on 10.17.17 at 4:11 pm

To combat deflation without going into even more mortgage debt.. the Federal Government could expand its deficit.

Say to run a $50 billion a year deficit, instead of the $30 billion a year deficit we currently have. Deficits can be expanded by keeping spending the same but reducing taxes.

#289 Jeff on 10.17.17 at 4:23 pm

Can your blog today or tomorrow say which lender is not affected by OSFI?

1- All credit unions?
2- MCAP?
3- Street Capital?
4- Equitable?
5- Private lenders?

Thank you

#290 Spock on 10.17.17 at 4:26 pm

here is a saying from someone more intelligent or cunning or whatever you call it than most:

“As they say in poker, ‘If you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.’”

Warren E. Buffet, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, in the company’s annual report.

…. and you don’t know .. .

——————-
#227 Duke on 10.17.17 at 11:25 am
I don’t know why everyone here is condemning SCM. He/she has a valid point.

#291 When Will They Raise Rates? on 10.17.17 at 4:29 pm

#282 SCM on 10.17.17 at 3:40 pm

I love how Garth got mad at me for telling the truth that certain boomers/conservatives, whatever you want to call yourselves (parasites maybe?), take glee when massively profitable corporations destroy lives and put hard working Canadians out on the unemployment line. All so your stock can go up by a point. I see plenty of examples in the comment section here, confirming what I was banned for pointing out.

The most hilarious part to me is that in the next thread, you will complain about your taxes going up. You want corporations making hundreds of millions and billions in profits to leave masses of Canadians unemployed, under-employed, wages suppressed, and then you complain that the government has to pick up the tab via EI, social assistance, lower tax revenues, etc. Your dividends should be taxed 90% to pay for the consequences of your cruelty and greed. Still wouldn’t be anywhere near enough.

I don’t know what’s more rotted out. Your brains, or your hearts. Some of you people aren’t even human.
————————–

Wow.

#292 IHCTD9 on 10.17.17 at 4:30 pm

#279 Dissident on 10.17.17 at 3:27 pm
Awe! #270 IHCTD9 on 10.17.17 at 2:41 pm

This one’s for you, bro. Chin up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zR39RBydVyM
_________________________________

Great thanks!

I didn’t watch it but I’m sure it was great non-biased media.

Laterz

#293 IHCTD9 on 10.17.17 at 4:41 pm

#277 TnT on 10.17.17 at 3:22 pm
#266 IHCTD9 on 10.17.17 at 2:26 pm

Would you like an absolutely exhaustive list of things you can’t touch, see, hear or sense in any way shape or form that still exist anyway?

***

Sure, give me a list of things you can’t touch, see, hear or sense in any way shape or form that still exist anyway THAT is more important than a human being.
_____________________________

Which human beings? The random assumed gay recipients of said biased teachings, or JohnnyBoy’s kids?

Remember what the original comment was?

If you want to be honest with yourself, you just don’t like JohnnyBoy teaching his own offspring things that he believes are important, but which you do not.

You are intolerant of JohnnyBoy’s world view, and believe you know what’s best for JohnnyBoy’s kids more so than he does.

Just be honest – we can all scroll up and review your post to see if you’re full of it or not.

You’re not a left winger by any chance?

#294 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.17 at 4:46 pm

@#255 MF
Sorry for the generalization about millenials brudda.

Just a bit of tongue in cheek for SCM rising blood pressure….
Seems to be working….

Yo SCM!
Just kidding about 90% of the stuff I said about you..
You’re the itch I have to scratch.
It feels good.
I love you man!

sincerely yours

Depraved, heartless, materialistic, planet polluting Boomer.

#295 SCM on 10.17.17 at 4:51 pm

True or false Garth? People in the comment section are bragging that Loblaws laid off 500 people because the stock will go up. I’m just asking man.

Ask Loblaws. — Garth

#296 Spock on 10.17.17 at 5:05 pm

I take lot of issue with your comment SCM.

Why do you keep on saying that the stock will go up by one point? You think Loblaws management will go through all of this for one point.

Do you even know what a point is ?

——————————————
#282 SCM on 10.17.17 at 3:40 pm
I love how Garth got mad at me for telling the truth that certain boomers/conservatives, whatever you want to call yourselves (parasites maybe?), take glee when massively profitable corporations destroy lives and put hard working Canadians out on the unemployment line. All so your stock can go up by a point.

– The next ban will be a life sentence. Dial it back. — Garth

#297 SCM on 10.17.17 at 5:08 pm

Lol. I refuse to shop there. Too expensive. No Frills/Food Basics for me. No avocado toast for this Screwed Canadian Millenial.

#298 Spock on 10.17.17 at 5:09 pm

Please provide proof of people bragging about what you are saying. Back up your statement with facts Esse.

You will have not given proof about people cheering the layoffs / destroyed families etc. You are all talk – just thin air. No backing up your statements.

I see comments from people saying that

1. This is how capitalism works
2. Businesses need to stay in profit
3. Costs are going to go up because of the increase in minimum wage

Here is something that you will make you have a good nights sleep:

This is just the start. The 500 people layoffs will save $75 million annually. Costs are going to go up $190 million in 2018. If you learnt math you can calculate how many people need to be laid off to break even.

If the immigration and customs to the other countries you are applying to need any references – please do not point them to this blog otherwise they will refuse entry as losers are not allowed in most countries.

——————————–
#295 SCM on 10.17.17 at 4:51 pm
True or false Garth? People in the comment section are bragging that Loblaws laid off 500 people because the stock will go up. I’m just asking man.

Ask Loblaws. — Garth

#299 Dissident on 10.17.17 at 5:11 pm

#282 SCM on 10.17.17 at 3:40 pm

I’d say you’re becoming prrrretty irrational. *rolls eyes*

Nobody here is gleefully cheering when hundreds of Loblaws people (or Sears people) get sacked and as a result, the companys’ stocks may (or may not) go up. They’re/we’re merely stating that fact objectively. This is the reality we all live in. Sh*t happens. Corporations must survive at all costs.

Owning a piece of a company, in the form of a stock purchase, doesn’t mean you participate in the ‘restructuring’ decisions. There is nothing criminal about owning stock. Get over yourself and buy some.

I think you need to grab your smelling salts cause you’re starting to sound a bit faint. You’re giving everyone a headache #dramaqueen #woeisSCM

#300 MF on 10.17.17 at 5:15 pm

94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.17.17 at 4:46 pm

Aww thanks for that message man.

You have now been granted full permission to rip on my generation as much as you like.

I also pledge to back you up in your fight against some of the ex pats on here.

:)

MF

#301 Spock on 10.17.17 at 5:19 pm

I weep for humanity if this loser is the model and representative of the next generation (which I do not think he is).

>>> I don’t know what’s more rotted out. Your brains, or your hearts. Some of you people aren’t even human.
<<<

We are robots actually. Did you not figure it out yourself. Garth is actually the chief robot.

For the others who are human – they at least have a brain to rot. Unlike you.

Not go fiddle with your worlds smallest violin while I check my brokerage account to see how many thousand I made due to the layoffs /sarc.

Can we take bets for when SCM will earn the lifetime ban. The proceeds will be donated to the Belfountain store for upkeep.

———————————————–
#282 SCM on 10.17.17 at 3:40 pm
I love how Garth got mad at me for telling the truth that certain boomers/conservatives, whatever you want to call yourselves (parasites maybe?), take glee when massively profitable corporations destroy lives and put hard working Canadians out on the unemployment line. All so your stock can go up by a point. I see plenty of examples in the comment section here, confirming what I was banned for pointing out.

The most hilarious part to me is that in the next thread, you will complain about your taxes going up. You want corporations making hundreds of millions and billions in profits to leave masses of Canadians unemployed, under-employed, wages suppressed, and then you complain that the government has to pick up the tab via EI, social assistance, lower tax revenues, etc. Your dividends should be taxed 90% to pay for the consequences of your cruelty and greed. Still wouldn’t be anywhere near enough.

I don’t know what’s more rotted out. Your brains, or your hearts. Some of you people aren’t even human.

The next ban will be a life sentence. Dial it back. — Garth

#302 Spock on 10.17.17 at 5:21 pm

Shop haahaha. That needs a commodity called money or credit.

Run along to the food bank little boy (which of course runs on donations from folks who you are grudging).

—————————————-
#297 SCM on 10.17.17 at 5:08 pm
Lol. I refuse to shop there. Too expensive. No Frills/Food Basics for me. No avocado toast for this Screwed Canadian Millenial.

#303 TnT on 10.17.17 at 5:23 pm

#293 IHCTD9 on 10.17.17 at 4:41 pm

Which human beings? The random assumed gay recipients of said biased teachings, or JohnnyBoy’s kids?

There was a time, not too long ago, Protestants ~biased teachings~ kids that Catholics are “less”

Remember what the original comment was?

Yes, a person who believes in God has an opinion on ~biased teachings of gays~

If you want to be honest with yourself, you just don’t like JohnnyBoy teaching his own offspring things that he believes are important, but which you do not.

Honestly, I believe teaching begins at home, ~biased~ is subjective

You are intolerant of JohnnyBoy’s world view, and believe you know what’s best for JohnnyBoy’s kids more so than he does.

Not intolerant, note the last comment was “funny how the world works” referencing how ~biased~ teachings works

Just be honest – we can all scroll up and review your post to see if you’re full of it or not.

that’s why I love this blog, no Edit Button and its archived for years

You’re not a left winger by any chance?

ad hominem

#304 Spock on 10.17.17 at 5:24 pm

Jeff: I will go with “None of them”.

Only federally regulated lenders (aka banks).

But maybe these rules come in place for the others also at some point of time.

To all blog dogs other that cry baby SCM: Kindly correct if wrong.
———————–
#289 Jeff on 10.17.17 at 4:23 pm
Can your blog today or tomorrow say which lender is not affected by OSFI?

1- All credit unions?
2- MCAP?
3- Street Capital?
4- Equitable?
5- Private lenders?

Thank you

#305 Dissident on 10.17.17 at 5:25 pm

#292 IHCTD9 on 10.17.17 at 4:30 pm

Its a musical parody. Have a sense of humor, broski. But whatever, your loss.

#306 SCM on 10.17.17 at 5:28 pm

#302 Spock on 10.17.17 at 5:21 pm

Run along to the food bank little boy (which of course runs on donations from folks who you are grudging).

———————————-

I volunteer there you sicko.

#307 Spock on 10.17.17 at 5:29 pm

Garth:

The last line from the blog: Who needs Trump for theatrics? We have our own drama queens.

Were you referring to SCM because if so he more than proved you right on that one. QED.

#308 Tony on 10.17.17 at 5:40 pm

Re: #289 Jeff on 10.17.17 at 4:23 pm

Or more to the point which cities will be hit hardest price-wise by the new OSFI rules? Sutton must be at the top of the list where income is the lowest and home prices the highest as a ratio.

#309 Spock on 10.17.17 at 6:15 pm

You cannot run along to the food bank to volunteer?

—————–
#306 SCM on 10.17.17 at 5:28 pm
#302 Spock on 10.17.17 at 5:21 pm

Run along to the food bank little boy (which of course runs on donations from folks who you are grudging).

———————————-

I volunteer there you sicko.

#310 Braj on 10.17.17 at 6:24 pm

#228 TnT on 10.17.17 at 11:30 am
#223 Braj on 10.17.17 at 10:51 am

There is more but this is stuff you can google and see plenty of examples of.

That is your problem Braj…

You GOOGLE for answers.

Find a better way to learn.

***

Being alive is a pretty good series of lessons. Where do you learn? Google is arguably the best way to learn…just gotta put the effort in.

#311 Braj on 10.17.17 at 6:25 pm

Seems like TnT is friends with SCM. Girls club ;)

#312 Blessed Canadian Millenial on 10.17.17 at 7:45 pm

#301 Spock on 10.17.17 at 5:19 pm
I weep for humanity if this loser is the model and representative of the next generation (which I do not think he is).

>>> I don’t know what’s more rotted out. Your brains, or your hearts. Some of you people aren’t even human.
<<<

We are robots actually. Did you not figure it out yourself. Garth is actually the chief robot.

For the others who are human – they at least have a brain to rot. Unlike you.

Not go fiddle with your worlds smallest violin while I check my brokerage account to see how many thousand I made due to the layoffs /sarc.

Can we take bets for when SCM will earn the lifetime ban. The proceeds will be donated to the Belfountain store for upkeep.

———

Believe me, this leftist / Marxist views are being taught at post-secondary institutions.

I'm one of the older millenials, so I've been around the block more than once.

I thought SCM's attitude can be shaped or that she can learn about opposing view if she has an open-mind. Alas. All she cares about is demeaning boomers and conservatives, thus the ban.

Garth, please do not ban SCM for life. I love hearing her funny / infantile thoughts on the economy and how the world should function.

#313 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 10.17.17 at 7:50 pm

AND ST. GARTH STOOD ON THE MOUNT OF HAMILTON BY THE LAKE OF LOST DREAMS…

…and sayeth unto the gathered, debt-battered real estate hornies and various assorted stomach-churned wretches:

“GO FORTH, for God’s sake, but DO NOT MULTIPLY…

…for there are enough of you besotted creatures already, sitting at your sidewalk cafes bragging about how much money you’ve got ready to spend in your LOCs, credit cards, and renegotiated mortgages.

‘We’re rich,’ you’ll repeat over and over. Wrong, you are stone-cold busted.”

And St. Garth then turned to former Finance Minsiter Bill Morneau who was there in spirit only:

“See what it feels like, Bill? Getting skewered in public by Canada’s Selfie King?”

Then he added, “Oh well, Marc should be a worthy successor. He used to be a space cadet!”

And so, the muddled masses trundled off to their homes in the ‘burbs, sure of one thing ONLY: Tomorrow is another day!

#314 the2ndcomingofjohngalt on 10.17.17 at 11:00 pm

Re;(SCM’s comments, rebuttals in general)

Yo SCM, maybe chillax a tad, like I’ve said before on this blog, what tenet of capitalism suggests,or presumes a social contract? I empathize with the tone/spirit of your basic argument/s, but in my opinion you’re barking up the wrong tree. The core structure of the current monetary system that the vast majority of the global economy abides by is inherently flawed, there is never enough “money” to extinguish the debt that exists, guaranteeing that there will always be those that are left out, or condemned to poverty/bankruptcy/marginalization etc. Also, as I have mentioned before, turning to governments for solutions is a hopeless endeavour having giving up their influence many decades ago by embracing neo-liberal capitalism for a fraction of a penny on the dollar. I must admit though that I have a lot of empathy for generational young Canadians expecting a standard of living that even comes close to their parents.

ps;(Please don’t ban SCM Garth, at least not until I give it a good shot to calm him/her down)

#315 Spock#2 on 10.18.17 at 12:39 pm

I was shocked, shocked when I heard a few years ago that there were shills (i.e., phantom bidders) driving up home prices in Toronto. Apparently, even the inept provincial Lieberals [sic] legislation (https://www.thestar.com/business/2015/06/14/phantom-real-estate-bids-targeted-by-new-ontario-law.html), which was laughed at by the unwashed masses, didn’t help –prices kept going up. Maybe this time, things will slow down for a while?