To everything…

RYAN  By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

And so it begins. Last weekend we stuffed ourselves with turkey, gravy and some red stuff in a can, to the point where we began to sweat and ultimately fell asleep. I think I might have even pulled an “Al Bundy” falling asleep with a hand tucked in my waist band. Not pretty!

Thanksgiving of course marks the beginning of the holiday season where we spend time with family and friends, drink and eat too much, and if we’re lucky, see some nice gains in our investment portfolio. In this week’s post I examine the positive seasonality for equities, which begins in November and December and goes into May, representing the best six-month period for the equity markets. Will it play out again this year, or we will get a lump of coal in our stockings?

It’s been another decent year for the equity markets, in-line with our expectations, for the most part. As of October 12th, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and TSX are up 13.9%, 22.5% and 3.0%, respectively, on a price return basis. We called for additional gains this year as the global economy continued to improve, corporate profits rebounded and the technicals remained bullish.

Historically, October has been a weaker month for the equity markets so it’s possible that we could see some volatility over the next few weeks. However, this could then set us up nicely for November and into year-end.

Below we illustrate the “typical” or average performance of the S&P 500 and TSX over the calendar year. You will note that the equity markets typically surge in late October/early November and rally into year-end, hence why we call this the “Santa Claus rally”. In fact, we are close to entering the best seasonal period for equities, which lasts from November into May. In the chart below we show that the average performance for the S&P 500 is 7.4% in the November through May period, far outperforming the June through October period at 0.7%. Could we see this seasonal tendency play out again?

Seasonality Turns Bullish In November

Source: Turner Investments, Bloomberg
November to May is the Strongest Period for Equities

Source: Turner Investments, Bloomberg

First, let me state the obvious that these market tendencies and are not 100% fool proof. There are numerous years where this doesn’t play out, either because of a downturn in the economy/stock market or due to some type of exogenous shocks. An example of a “shock” could be North Korea sending a rocket into South Korea or Japan, or President Trump going further off the rails.

So there is no guarantee the equity markers experience this seasonal rally, but we believe the odds are stacked up in favour of year-end strength given the following factors:

1. The global economy is accelerating: Over the course of the year we’ve seen the global economy pick up with growth broadening out across key countries and regions. We’ve seen economic growth accelerate in China, Europe, US and even Canada with our economy growing at a robust 4% in the first half. One of my favourite economic indicators, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, which measures whether economic data is coming in above economists’ expectations, has rebounded and recently turned positive. If this continues it could provide further support for equities as we have found that the S&P 500 returns on average 2.4% from the time the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index turns positive to its peak, with the S&P 500 up 70% of the time. Those are decent odds.

2. Corporate profits are robust: The big story this year is that corporate profits have rebounded strongly which, in part, explains why we continue to see new all-time highs in the US markets. For example, S&P 500 and TSX earnings are up on average 17% and 28%, respectively, in the first half. We see this continuing, helping to drive equity prices even higher.

3. Technicals remain bullish: Finally, we’re big trend followers, as we have found that it generally pays to invest with long-term trends rather than go against them. And on that front things look great! The S&P 500 remains in a long-term uptrend, is above key moving averages and we see good market breadth in the US equity markets. Global equities have also broken out to new all-time highs and even the lagging TSX is starting to show some strength, recently breaking above its downtrend. We see better days ahead for our TSX market.

Putting it all together, the fundamental and technical outlook remains bullish so stay the course. Add in the fact that we’re entering the strongest seasonal period for equities, we see the potential for a year-end rally, adding to the already solid gains. If correct, it should help set us up for a good holiday season.

Citigroup US Surprise Index Has Turned Positive

Source: Turner Investments, Bloomberg
Ryan Lewenza, CFA,CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

75 comments ↓

#1 Stan Brooks on 10.14.17 at 4:15 pm

TSX is up 3 % up to date for the year?
Wow! What a return.

If our economy is ‘growing’ much faster than the US why their stock market outperforms ours that much?

————————————

Conditioning the herd:

How much should you tip.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/video/cheap-k-much-tip-142738863.html

tip, tax, tip, tax, pay, pay,

#2 ww1 on 10.14.17 at 4:15 pm

US Thanksgiving still to come … gives them less shopping days until Christmas however.

#3 Penny Henny on 10.14.17 at 4:18 pm

Schlongbranch update.
#6 Thirty Ninth st sold for 850k.
Same size as you house Smoking Man, but not finished nearly as nice (not updated). Much better lot though and closer to the lake. So lets call it land value 33×129 ft lot.

Also seeing sales pick up in W08 but prices are hurting.
Lot of low ballers out there getting deals (there is hope for you yet HHCE).

#4 Smoking Man on 10.14.17 at 4:36 pm

#3 Penny Henny on 10.14.17 at 4:18 pm
Schlongbranch update.
#6 Thirty Ninth st sold for 850k.
Same size as you house Smoking Man, but not finished nearly as nice (not updated). Much better lot though and closer to the lake. So lets call it land value 33×129 ft lot.
…..

The lower end in any market rigjt now is moving. Rent vs Mortgage.

Example rent out of Niagara 2k per month vs putting 50k down on a 250k payments are around 1k per month that’s what’s driving it. 500k in Niagara just sits.

Plus dudes who got pre approved at record low rates are buying. Once it dries up and stress test look out below.

Also seeing sales pick up in W08 but prices are hurting.
Lot of low ballers out there getting deals (there is hope for you yet HHCE).

#5 Lost...but not leased on 10.14.17 at 4:42 pm

Would the above blog photo be possible on a Smart Car ?

#6 fishman on 10.14.17 at 5:00 pm

just voted in civic by-election for one Van alderman & school board. Polling station as packed as I’ve ever seen it for any prov. or fed. election. Something up? or just my area? The longer I’ve been in this town the more I I’m not surprised.

#7 Buy buy buy !!!! on 10.14.17 at 5:11 pm

Good article . The VIX has a gap in its chart . The VIX is negatively correlated with s&p. ALL gaps in the VIX are filled ; death , taxes and the VIX fills its gaps . Here’s hopIng it’s filled within the next two
Weeks , then reverses (as this happens most of the time once a gap is filled ) then..,.boom…..Santa Claus rally !!

#8 Need Loonies for Greenbacks on 10.14.17 at 5:14 pm

Sir Lewenza,
What is your forecast for the CAD Loonie?
I’m not taking it as investment advice, but where do you see the Loonie for Q4/2017?
Will it continue to accelerate beyond 80 cents, or will I’m not Poloz continue to post exaggerated bearish values for the Loonie?

#9 mark on 10.14.17 at 5:18 pm

Ryan,
We know you job is to control risk with a decent return, but how about a Maximum Return Portfolio example, i assume this would be about Zero on the bond allocation.
A Lot of us would be interested in that, particularly the 20 somethings with 40 plus years time horizon!

#10 mark on 10.14.17 at 5:19 pm

Thanks

#11 Stone on 10.14.17 at 5:27 pm

Nice post today Ryan. Love today’s pic. I finally understand what that thing on the back of the car is for. LOL

I agree with you on how things have gone so far this. All was going good this year until end of May with an overall return with distributions of 6.4% and then things nosedived all the way to middle of August when it seemed to hit the bottom. At that stage, my overall return was just below 3% YTD. From that point though, the rise back up has been awesome and now my portfolio is sitting at 7.88% YTD with two and a half months to go in the year. Fingers crossed on a Santa Clause rally and maybe a double digit return.

I wonder how many people pulled out between end of May and now and are sitting in cash and missed the nice rise back up as well as the nice distributions in between. My recommendation for all those on the same journey of wealth accumulation is stay the course. Long term, it’s well worth it. Rebalancing is better than being in cash. Only $17,687.15 from the 7 figure mark on an all ETF portfolio spread between registered, TFSA, and non-registered accounts. Very exciting. After all, I’m a spreadsheet nerd. ;-)

To be honest, I never thought I would get as far as I have with it. I’ll even admit that “compounding” is one of my favourite words along with dividend, interest, and capital gain. They all roll so well off the tongue. Lovely.

#12 Lost...but not leased on 10.14.17 at 5:58 pm

Ah yes…the holiday season…

Given bricks and mortar businesses are in death throes (aka not able to survive =obey uber demographic demands of millenial masters ….with drone supported or teleportation deliveries as promised by Star Trek), this will make on- line shopping the new norm.

This begets , and concurrently exacerbates, the new norm of home delivery and subsequent rise in theft of the aforementioned.(aka simply check YOUTUBE)

Ah yes…..sweet excess of perceived progress.

#13 Michael on 10.14.17 at 5:59 pm

Ryan,

I’m really looking forward to you saying for the first time that ” My conclusion is that you should sell”. Will it ever happen? :) I won’t hold my breath! :)))

#14 Bud Light on 10.14.17 at 6:23 pm

Shiller PE is now at 31.15. The only two times in history it was higher was at the height of the tech bubble in 2000 and in 1929. This will end badly.

#15 Lost...but not leased on 10.14.17 at 6:38 pm

#6 fishman

This Vancouver byelection for replacement Councillor could be one of THE most intriguing ones whereby Canada should take note.

Background is the BC Provincial elections last Spring 2017 brought in a coalition NDP Gov’t whose” majority” is based on support (3) GREEN party MLA’s

The BC NDP gov’t hired Vancouver City Councillor Geoff Meggs as their ” Chief of Staff “, this triggering a COV byelection.

The irony is the BC NDP pre election posturing was their claims to deal with the housing mess in BC,.(.and the NDP generally attracts the blind faith rainbows and unicorn dogmatic “wave- the- magic -wand” idealogues types).

If one follows local BC politics..many naive voters are royally PO’D re: the NDP and the housing issue….as the NDP is being exposed as somewhere between opportunists and outright liars as the BC NDP had a vague housing policy to start ….and less if any substance while in power which the increasingly disillusioned are increasingly realizing.

IMHO…people like Meggs have a “contract” in place when he was elected as COV Councillor..aka the voting public had reasonable expectation that your role for (4) years was to be a Councillor. If you do not honour this “contract”, you will/should be held accountable for all costs incurred to resolve the situation aka cost of byelection(which I understand can equate to approx. $500,000+).

aka Public Service should “trump”(Trump?) personal gain and partisan politics.

#16 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.17 at 6:47 pm

@#6 fishman
“Polling station as packed as I’ve ever seen it for any prov. or fed. election. Something up? or just my area?”
+++++++

or angry voters fed up with Gregor and wanting to send a message to Vancouver “sh*!!y hall” for next years rout?
***********************

@ Ryan

very interesting timely topic

#17 Ryan Lewenza on 10.14.17 at 7:02 pm

Need Loonies for Greenbacks “What is your forecast for the CAD Loonie?”

I see the CAD range-bound between roughly mid 70s and mid 80s over the next year. No real trend, more sideways action. This is based on my expectations for higher oil prices but for them to be capped on the upside around $6o barrel and for the BoC to trail behind the Fed in rate hikes. We would need higher bond yields than US bond yields and much higher oil prices to justify a much higher CAD dollar. – Ryan L

#18 Ryan Lewenza on 10.14.17 at 7:07 pm

Mark “We know you job is to control risk with a decent return, but how about a Maximum Return Portfolio example, i assume this would be about Zero on the bond allocation.”

Yes a max return portfolio would have no bonds but we don’t advise that even for young investors in their 20s. I would instead prefer investors save consistently starting in their 20s using a balanced portfolio and let compounding do its work. You’ll thank me in the end rather than recommending a 100% equity portfolio. – Ryan L

#19 Ryan Lewenza on 10.14.17 at 7:13 pm

Stan Brooks “TSX is up 3 % up to date for the year?
Wow! What a return. If our economy is ‘growing’ much faster than the US why their stock market outperforms ours that much?”

TSX return is price only. Including a 3% yield and if we remain at current levels that’s a 6% total return. Not great but not bad. We also see TSX rallying into year end so this should be higher. Lastly, we’re global investors, as you should be too, so our clients are benefiting from US returns up 14%, and EM and Europe up over 20%. There are a lot more markets to invest in than just Canada. – Ryan L

#20 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 10.14.17 at 7:16 pm

#222 Stan Brooks on 10.14.17 at 3:59 pm
#211 MF on 10.14.17 at 1:32 pm
03 Stan Brooks on 10.14.17 at 12:3

Not entirely true. I, like millions of others, enjoy living in a large city. I enjoy the amenities, the hustle and the opportunity. My family is here too.

There are currently too many tailwinds for the GTA market to go down.

The commute can be a pain in the butt, but if you are lucky you can find a job that is closer to home or
transport and the commute is fine.

MF

————————————————
About enjoying life in a big city.

What amenities?

The crowded subways with constant delay announcements?

The impossible to drive in rush our roads?

The crowd at the malls? Just go to Vaughan Mills for example on the weekend, countless herd of people moving around in circles trying to kill the time as there is nothing else to do.

There is nothing to do in GTA in your leisure time, period.

You need 2 hours just to get out of that trap. To go where? Niagara? Oakville?

———————
Regardless of that, what you see as jobs in GTA currently, 70-80 % of these will be gone in the next 10 years.

Gone. Automation is here to stay and will eliminate the majority of jobs specially in the large metropolitan areas supported mostly by housing boom and services in the past.

The most disruptive force you will ever see in your life.

– banks will eliminate branches
– retailers will automate stores, some will go bankrupt
– most office workers will be gone in favor of remote, virtual teams
– once self driving cars arrive, insurance businesses, car manufacturers, cap companies will die.

So what are you going to do with your ‘expensive’ house and no job?

Look at what happened to Detroit when auto jobs disappeared.

What you are about to witness will be much worse. the disappearance of jobs, not just mere outsourcing.

___________________________________

I doubt greedy evil uneducated SHYSTERS understand or will warn their clients of the future to come?
Basic income is being introduced because those who have good paying jobs will lose them within 10 years. May will not be able to even service their debts in the future. We will see a crash in housing followed by a slow melt. Example prices crash 40-50% in 3-4 years then melt another 30-40% over the next 5-10 years. Automation and AI will wipe out tens of millions of jobs. The automobile will have a cellphone to smartphone transition over the next ten years. This alone will leave taxi,truck drivers and any other driver useless. Accountants and Lawyer’s will be crushed as well as other professions. My fear is how will the elite get rid of all the now useless people? You realtors were useless yesterday. Game over for you scum.

#21 A Yank in BC on 10.14.17 at 7:33 pm

#13 Michael on 10.14.17 at 5:59 pm

“I won’t hold my breath! :)))”

Then don’t. As our hosts would say, one of the most fundamental and important rules for being a successful investor is to remain fully invested at all times, even when markets seem richly valued. You never “sell”, except to rebalance to your desired asset allocation. Suggest you read Bernstein’s “Four Pillars of Investing”.

#22 Stone on 10.14.17 at 7:36 pm

Hi Ryan,

I was just watching the following link from PBS in regards to Developed Nations outside of North America as well as Emerging Markets. Any thoughts on increasing the Emerging Markets component of the balanced and diversified portfolio considering the thoughts expressed by the 2 interviewees or is 4% still considered an appropriate amount?

http://wealthtrack.com/two-highly-rated-international-investors-discuss-opportunities-to-seize-and-risks-to-avoid/

#23 Innumeracy Chick No More on 10.14.17 at 7:45 pm

That is probably SCM in the picture…except not eating Tim’s. SCM I like your point of view. By the way I don’t think you are screwed… I think you will have it better than (Stone) generation X. I predict a great future for you! A more balanced lifestyle with hard work and lots of fun. Working at something that you are passionate about and making a difference all the while raising a family with the help of your extended family. Less latch key kids and hopefully lower divorce rates as you become more family focused. I think your generation may just surprise the rest of us…

#24 Innumeracy Chick No More on 10.14.17 at 8:27 pm

Millennials = Educated, tech savy, resourceful, genuine, driven, flexible, think outside the box and care about the big picture.

Millennials will work for less get creative, care less about money and create more flexible work places, no 9-5, more remote working, more freelance. The world will become more interesting.

I am optimistic that they will rid themselves of student debt and recover financially. It’s not their fault they are buying overpriced houses…it’s their dumb parents who want them to buy houses so they look like they did a good parenting job and can brag to their friends. We won’t mention who they are. But they unfortunately are not the parents on this blog who listen’s to Garth. If they were they wouldn’t be buying these houses.

#25 SCM on 10.14.17 at 8:38 pm

It’s not just Screwed Canadian Millenials…

Rise in Alberta job openings does not spell return of high paying jobs, says job recruiter
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-job-numbers-job-recruiter-1.4354139

Bad news for engineers

Despite the fact that the number of good jobs is rising and wages are going up, one area Massie says she hasn’t seen come back is high-paying jobs for engineers.

She says she had one project manager role for a professional engineer come up this year and received thousands of applications.

“It really hit me that these guys, especially the guys that have been laid off more than a year or two ago, which is most of them, their resumes now are not even usable,” she said.

“They’ve been off too long and they’re going to have a really difficult time ever getting anything.”

Massie says even though those engineers have a lot of education, they will likely have to retrain to get another job.

————–

Endless hard times for far too many in this frozen hellhole.

Thousands of applications for 1 position. I hear the same thing from many friends in Toronto. Labour shortage my ass.

#26 Long-Time Lurker on 10.14.17 at 8:40 pm

#148 Smoking Man on 10.13.17 at 10:31 pm

The torch is heavy. I’m getting old. It’s yours SCM

Also:

I am outraged. It is neocon nonsense. — Garth

I got a good laugh out of that!

#27 SCM on 10.14.17 at 8:41 pm

#23 Innumeracy Chick No More on 10.14.17 at 7:45 pm

I predict a great future for you!

————————-

Same here. As soon as I get the hell out of Canada. That’s the #1 goal. God willing, this will be my last winter in Canada. My European papers should come through but my god what a hassle.

Or better yet I finally win the US Green Card visa lottery.

Either or.

I’ve wasted too much of my life in this hellhole.

#28 Smoking Man on 10.14.17 at 9:01 pm

#8 Need Loonies for Greenbacks on 10.14.17 at 5:14 pm
Sir Lewenza,
What is your forecast for the CAD Loonie?
I’m not taking it as investment advice, but where do you see the Loonie for Q4/2017?
Will it continue to accelerate beyond 80 cents, or will I’m not Poloz continue to post exaggerated bearish values for the Loonie?
….

If he knew with 400 to 1 margin, he would not need to be Garths boy. In fact he could be raving drunken lunatic. Totaly insane and giving no shit about anything. Being totally free to speak his true mind when ever he felt like it.

That luxury is reserved for very few.

He’s better off doing balanced low risk stuff. You should not put a guy like that on the spot.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#29 Stone on 10.14.17 at 9:01 pm

#23 Innumeracy Chick No More on 10.14.17 at 7:45 pm
That is probably SCM in the picture…except not eating Tim’s. SCM I like your point of view. By the way I don’t think you are screwed… I think you will have it better than (Stone) generation X. I predict a great future for you! A more balanced lifestyle with hard work and lots of fun. Working at something that you are passionate about and making a difference all the while raising a family with the help of your extended family. Less latch key kids and hopefully lower divorce rates as you become more family focused. I think your generation may just surprise the rest of us…

——-

You forgot this…

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=w5Fgp-KihIA

It’s my favourite song.

#30 Karma on 10.14.17 at 9:11 pm

#218 Bob on 10.14.17 at 2:45 pm
“The opinions expressed on this blog about the state of the RE market do not match what I see in Vancouver for instance. Well priced homes are selling, condos are on fire and many of my contacts in the industry are all doing really well.”

Interesting. My experience in Vancouver is different. I have seen realtors making more desperate posts than ever on my FB. People who used to work solely in the City of Vancouver are now flogging in the Fraser Valley. I was just at an empty open house this afternoon, the realtor was checking his college football fantasy team. We were the only ones there. He had 3 failed accepted offers because financing didn’t work out, and on the last one the family member who was helping with the down payment baulked before conditions were removed. This place was in the City of Van, 2 bed condo that’s been on the market for nearly 2 months. Probably the 4th open house weekend.

#31 Nonplused on 10.14.17 at 9:24 pm

This post was very wise and savvy. But not nearly as fun as the post about Jenn who Garth entirely deleted even his own comments because well Jenn deserved what she got.

I was probably overly harsh. My sisters treat my dad the same way, My mom treats her daughters the same way.

If my sisters divorce and remarry that’s all good. If I do it it is a sin. If my dad has to buy my sister a house that’s to look after the grandchildren but I have kids too and they get nothing. Not even an acknowledgement that working and going to school might be a good idea, it’s all a waste of money from my dad and mom, while they plow their retirement money into houses for their daughters whereas when I really could of used some help none was available. Not anything.

Well, I am better off. I don’t plan on their being a fallback plan. I know, without a shadow of a doubt, that my parents are giving me or my kids nothing. They don’t care. Meanwhile my sisters don’t even have to work, dad’s got it covered.

This situation is crazy beyond belief. When my nieces and nephews get arrested for pot or get pregnant at 13, my mom says its all great, God’s will and isn’t it great the police are driving the kids home. When my kid goes to university they think it’s a grand waste of money.

This will give it away if you know us, but my mom thought it totally appropriate to give one of my nieces $30,000 to make a record when she was 15. She can’t even sing or play an instrument. When my girls went to university, nothing.

#32 fred on 10.14.17 at 9:34 pm

Yes a max return portfolio would have no bonds but we don’t advise that even for young investors in their 20s. I would instead prefer investors save consistently starting in their 20s using a balanced portfolio and let compounding do its work. You’ll thank me in the end rather than recommending a 100% equity portfolio. – Ryan L

……………

disagree. We opened a TFSA for our older boy two yrs ago when he turned 18. . We have funded to the max. ALlocation is 100% equity. He knows this isnt to be touched, and to be added to each yr- an attempt to max it out. His retirement fund. He can change allocation when he’s much much older

if he listen’s to dad he’ll be laughing at age 55……..will he listen? :)

#33 Smoking Man on 10.14.17 at 9:34 pm

DELETED

#34 Innumeracy Chick No More on 10.14.17 at 9:49 pm

# SCM Well it’s not a hell hole but I agree there are opportunities outside of Canada.

#35 Yanniel on 10.14.17 at 9:57 pm

Hi Ryan,

Does it then make sense to buy equities before we enter the year end rally? I say “before” because I would assume equities become more expensive this time of the year. So, I would buy then before, when they were on “sale”.

Does it even make sense to buy the equities now?

Your input is greatly appreciated.

Yanniel.

#36 Smoking Man on 10.14.17 at 10:00 pm

Ryan and Doug. The reason you guys don’t get a lot of posts in the comment section. No cowboy boots. It’s a conspiracy theory of mine.

No one is Garth. Son of bitch is different.

You guys .
Just making noise in the downtown food court when I’m taking to myself trying to put perfect sentences together for the next book.

#37 mike from mtl on 10.14.17 at 10:17 pm

#22 Stone on 10.14.17 at 7:36 pm
….or is 4% still considered an appropriate amount?

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////

I’m not Ryan or Sir Garth however, personally I have 4% in EEM, will raise it and lower maple even further next rebalance.

#38 Michael on 10.14.17 at 10:22 pm

#21 A Yank in BC on 10.14.17 at 7:33 pm

“You never “sell”, except to rebalance to your desired asset allocation.”
Sure thing, I’ll ask you when this masterfully crafted balloon explodes how you feel about your holdings. Can you make it fully invested through the next bear market? Time will tell, most people will surely NOT

#39 Smoking Man on 10.14.17 at 10:40 pm

DELETED

#40 SCM on 10.14.17 at 11:03 pm

#34 Innumeracy Chick No More on 10.14.17 at 9:49 pm

Hellhole was being kind. It’s a sh*thole. USA or Europe offer far greener pastures and a much better life.

#41 Smoking Man on 10.14.17 at 11:14 pm

Good to have friends that delete things that will insure a bullet in the head.

Love you Garth. You cowered.

ttps://youtu.be/x7bIbVlIqEc

#42 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.14.17 at 11:25 pm

The surprise index is as of Jan-17.
I’m almost a year older since.
Surprise me again, Jan-18.
Can’t wait.

#43 Ace Goodheart on 10.15.17 at 12:03 am

Just coming on here to troll the comments section.

One of my favorites smoking man got deleted.

Must be a rough night.

Ryan as usual kudos to a well prepared and flawlessly executed blog. You have a lot of market knowledge. It is nice to come on here and just get it for free.

Why did she bypass the compressor?

Because who was the idiot who put a compressor there anyway?

Almost blew them into pieces that the hyper drive would scatter through the galaxies.

It is time for another episode of did you know?

Did you know that many infill woodstoves have a face that looks like a minion? Despicable me. It’s true.

Did you know that Donald Trump is not our
President? It’s true. Canada doesn’t even have a President.

Did you know that the automobile company with the largest market valuation currently produces its mass market vehicle to a large extent by hand? Those darned computerized robots. Never work like they’re programmed to…

Did you know that your residential mortgage (if you ever read it) contains a number of clauses which give the bank the ability to sell your home without notice to you. One of those is a clause that states that if anyone consumes drugs on your property, including marihuana, With
Or without your knowledge, the bank can sell your house.

Goodnight. Cheers to all

#44 SWL1976 on 10.15.17 at 12:56 am

#27 SCM

I’ve wasted too much of my life in this hellhole.

=============

No matter where you go… There you are.

I agree certainly is no labour shortage in Canada and full well understand that companies use and abuse the TFW program. After all I did you 5 years of commuting back and forth to the Tiaga and had a front row seat watching things go from boom to bust in Fort Mac.

Anyways, how things change. I am now a small business owner and have a crew of young talented people – not so screwed millennial’s – serving up delicious pizza as well as some food for thought. Here is my take in the upcoming minimum wage change…

Fortunately we do business in BC and so far there is no talk of the 15$ an hour minimum, but I do see the writing on the wall. I have already been thinking of ways to eliminate positions as I don’t see profit margins that would sustain paying all of our staff that wage. I am thinking online ordering to take a person off the phone. I don’t want to do this as I do like the personal connection with ordering, but business is business, and businesses who spend more than the take in are no longer.

Its unfortunate that the large corporations such as the banks and big box stores who could afford to pay a higher wage will not, and are already well on their way to eliminating low end positions. Asking small business to simply pay up what the government says is short sighted and ridiculous, but I understand which way the wind blows and government seems content on doing everything they can to crush small business and cater to their real globalist masters – understand bilderburg and the real agenda and the scary truth disguised as sustainable development

Everyone, especially millennial’s really need to understand the indoctrination they have been subject to and what is really going on

Majority rules doesn’t work in mental institutions

#45 Russ on 10.15.17 at 1:06 am

Ace Goodheart on 10.15.17 at 12:03 am

Just coming on here to troll the comments section.

Why did she bypass the compressor?

Because who was the idiot who put a compressor there anyway?

Almost blew them into pieces that the hyper drive would scatter through the galaxies.

It is time for another episode of did you know?
===============================

Did you know any elementary school teacher will correct you to “do you know” for your list?

WTF. Did is so past tense that it is irrelevant.

Cheers, Russ

#46 BillyBob on 10.15.17 at 1:20 am

#40 SCM on 10.14.17 at 11:03 pm
#34 Innumeracy Chick No More on 10.14.17 at 9:49 pm

Hellhole was being kind. It’s a sh*thole. USA or Europe offer far greener pastures and a much better life.

====================================

Nah. You’re the type that will complain no matter where you go. Just another person with a lot of attitude and opinion about something you’ve never experienced. I’ve met your type a thousand times. Prepare to have your unrealistic expectations unmet.

I’ve been outside of Canada for 10+ years, lived all over the place. Everywhere has their bad and good, there are no “greener pastures”, you just have to pick the things you like the best and identify the things you don’t, but can live with.

From your constant complaining, you will not be happy anywhere. It’s weird and quite sad that someone so apparently young comes across so angry and bitter. Hopefully it’s just internet schtick.

#47 MF on 10.15.17 at 2:22 am

#40 SCM on 10.14.17 at 11:03 pm

Yes please leave the country you trololol.

There are tons of opportunities here. You just have to want to work hard. If you cannot make it it’s your fault, not the country’s.

You are an embarrassment to our generation (if you are real, which I don’t think you are).

MF

#48 Dolce Vita on 10.15.17 at 3:08 am

#27 SCM

Firstly, I would not go to the US to live. If all you care about is money, then fine, go there. I see them as one messed up, polarized country with far too many guns available to all. If you want balance in life, work and play, consider the EU first.

Secondly, if you want to do a city by city cost comparison, reasonably accurate Numbeo a good place to start (have defaulted city selections of Toronto vs. Pordenone, Italy where I live):

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Italy&country2=Canada&city1=Pordenone&city2=Toronto&tracking=getDispatchComparison

Groceries, restaurant higher in Pordenone but the food and produce trump anything in Toronto. Sorry Toronto, your Little Italy not even close to the real thing (I lived in Toronto for 4 years). In Italy, 20% service fee in the restaurant price, so, an unfair comparison. As for the groceries, hands down better tasting as almost all is Made in Italy vs. GMO, Growth Hormone, Antibiotic food from N. America.

Monthly big ticket items much cheaper than Toronto, like shelter.

MY TAKE SO FAR AFTER 4 YEARS IN THE EU, RETIRED:

I’d pick Deutschland 1st. Lots of jobs and still inexpensive enough to live in vs. their costs. Then again, a pretty dull and food wasteland of a place…well, except for Oktoberfest – only time of the year the Germans let their hair down (only other time is when they come to Italy, they love nude sunbathing here on our many beaches, them and the Scandinavians, and of course, they eat our food and drink our wine like there is no tomorrow). Plenty of time to spend your German money in other EU countries.

London booming but then again like Toronto, many jobs, ridiculously overpriced rents and real estate (and like Germany, their food is hideous to say the least and overpriced, e.g., 2 weeks ago in London I paid £8.65 or €9.72 for 2 doppio macchiato’s and a croissant which in Italy costs me €5 and to say the least, ours is much better). Also, uncertain future with Brexit.

For fun and a good balance between work and play, hands down Spain and Italy. Greece not bad but they are suffering economically, yet fun.

Spain unstable with the Catalan independence issue now but, their economy is coming back. Food not bad, if you like rice and fried foods (fancy Mexican cuisine), yes, yes, rice + shell fish…wow.

Italy hard to find good paying jobs, or jobs at all – but hey, as for the rest, what a country! Excellent balance between work and play.

Though the economy showing slight improvement with a GDP of 1.5% this year. Still a joke compared to Canadian GDP. Still they all come here in droves from all over the World.

#49 Fake News Again on 10.15.17 at 4:38 am

#43 Ace Goodheart on 10.15.17 at 12:03 am
Just coming on here to troll the comments section.

Did you know that your residential mortgage (if you ever read it) contains a number of clauses which give the bank the ability to sell your home without notice to you. One of those is a clause that states that if anyone consumes drugs on your property, including marihuana, With
Or without your knowledge, the bank can sell your house.

Goodnight. Cheers to all

_________________

Considering hundreds of thousands have a Canadian Medical License and considering weed will be legal in a few months…..I doubt the bank would risk this clause only to lose big in a lawsuit.

#50 Stone on 10.15.17 at 7:54 am

#40 SCM on 10.14.17 at 11:03 pm
#34 Innumeracy Chick No More on 10.14.17 at 9:49 pm

Hellhole was being kind. It’s a sh*thole. USA or Europe offer far greener pastures and a much better life.

——

Very sad. People who are positive and can execute a plan can be successful anywhere. Then there are bitter and spiteful individuals like you. Don’t think running away from your problems will solve them. There is no free ride by running to Europe or the US. People are people everywhere. They will expect you to perform and deliver results and if you can’t, you’ll be gone. Pick up a mirror and take a look at yourself. Methinks you won’t like what you see but you already know that. The hellhole or sh*thole is all in your head, not what is around you. Tinfoil can’t help you with that.

#51 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 10.15.17 at 7:59 am

The TSX index has been a laggard….and this is why index investing is never advised. Individual stocks that trade on the TSX have done fantastic. You’ve had to pick the right ones. I have a great selection of issues that have done 50% and more. I have stable of others that are flattening but pay great steady monthly dividends that create cash flow aplenty and that goes right into the ‘superstocks’ I hold without ever contributing a nickel of new money….that’s for spending on pool drinks and sunshine. This kind of portfolio makes for big capital gains and low tax…….Mama Mia…..me likely.

#52 Ryan Lewenza on 10.15.17 at 8:29 am

Stone “I was just watching the following link from PBS in regards to Developed Nations outside of North America as well as Emerging Markets. Any thoughts on increasing the Emerging Markets component of the balanced and diversified portfolio considering the thoughts expressed by the 2 interviewees or is 4% still considered an appropriate amount?”

Yes I completely agree with this. We’ve recently added to our EM weight for clients given our more constructive outlook. They’ve lagged, offer cheaper valuations, economies are picking up, improved technicals, and they do better when the US dollar is weak. We like EM equities and see them outperforming in the coming year. – Ryan L

#53 Ryan Lewenza on 10.15.17 at 8:34 am

Yanniel “Does it then make sense to buy equities before we enter the year end rally? I say “before” because I would assume equities become more expensive this time of the year. So, I would buy then before, when they were on “sale”. Does it even make sense to buy the equities now?”

Yes. If you have some extra cash now is the time to add it to portfolios ahead of this seasonal strength. – Ryan L

#54 Dharma Bum on 10.15.17 at 9:12 am

#31 Nonplused

“Well, I am better off. I don’t plan on their being a fallback plan.”
——————————————————————–

Good for you. Smart move. Sounds like you are the “black sheep” of the family, because your parents are mentally messed up.

You and your children will be further ahead of your siblings and their children. Those who survived early on by accepting handouts while being unaccountable for their sordid behaviour will ultimately suffer when the tap is turned off. They will not have acquired the skills necessary for self sustenance.

To hell with what your old man and old lady think. Educate your children and teach them to be self reliant.

Disown your parents and sisters, and move on. Leave no forwarding address.

#55 Old Ron the Realtor on 10.15.17 at 9:40 am

The TSX says : ” This week we have a special on Oil and Banks. Next week we have a special on Banks and Oil.”

Check out TSX 3 years ago and compare levels. Woeful.

The US S&P would have been in similar shape without the Fed pumping Trillions into the market, with their 2 p.m. Plunge Protection Team.

Is it any wonder Canadians are hot for houses. Still 100% tax free. (Primary residence) Even if it flatlines for 15 years, you are still paying it off, and you have to live someplace.

#56 HaHaHa on 10.15.17 at 9:41 am

By the way one railroad is so short of manpower offering recent retirees $1800 a week guarantee. $50 an hour. So quit bitching and man up young people. Pretty sad when the only reliable options out there is to rely on old people. Cause we show up. I have seen the work ethic the past ten years. Pathetic.

#57 Gravy Train on 10.15.17 at 9:45 am

#48 Dolce Vita on 10.15.17 at 3:08 am

“I see [the U.S.] as one messed up, polarized country with far too many guns available to all.”

You may be surprised to know that 70% of adult Americans do not own guns, and that 3% of adult Americans own half of all the guns in the U.S.

(I’d never live in the U.S., either.)

#58 I’m stupid on 10.15.17 at 9:54 am

#31 nonpulse

Suck it up buttercup. It’s your parents money, they can choose to do with it what they want. Have you ever thought that they help the less fortunate siblings because they feel sorry for them?

#59 Bonds on 10.15.17 at 10:03 am

Should have no part of a young investors portfolio . Historical data supports this . Fact . In addition we r in a rising interest rate environment- not good for bonds . Bond yields do not trump
corporate dividend yields

The only reason to include bonds in a twenty-year old ‘s portfoio would be to dampen volatolity (at the expense of returns ). If the kid can’t handle volatilty ? Then he needs to be educated . Our next 30% correction ? is a question of ‘when ‘ not ‘if’

#60 unbalanced on 10.15.17 at 10:13 am

To Stone . In one of your posts you state 7 figures! Now you ask for guidance and hand holding. What gives? Maybe you are a b-ss-er.

#61 Stan Brooks on 10.15.17 at 10:44 am

1. Majority rules doesn’t work in mental institutions

Exactly. Best quote ever. I would trademark it.

The level of brainwashing here is alarming, just see #47 MF on 10.15.17 at 2:22 am.


2. SCM is correct in principles, he/she/zer is a little bitter, but correct. Opportunities? What opportunities?
Kids out of college can not find any job, while greedy big companies import temporary foreign labour only due to lower costs.

Work hard and you will make it is the slogan of the slave.

Work smart where it will be appreciated is the slogan of the successful.

There is no more unfavorable and expensive place on earth to live for young professionals than Canada’s big cities. Period.

Only brainwashed, brain frozen individuals will state the opposite.

3. TSX is flat in the last few years while S&P was booming because all past and future money poured into real estate, not the stock market. And apparently there is no foreign investors interested in pouring money in our lieberals Utopia despite what the lying financial minister wants you to believe.

So SCM, try Europe and US and see if it works for you, you will find it much easier there.

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.15.17 at 10:45 am

@#25 SCM
“Thousands of applications for 1 position. I hear the same thing from many friends in Toronto. Labour shortage my ass.”
++++++

Well that depends.
If you want another paperpushing, mindless, soul sucking, politically correct, drone existance as a “consultant” or a “co-ordinator” or a “manager”…..expect a sporadic worklife.

If you are a tradesman/woman you are in unbelievable demand.
I have talked to every trade at all the sites I work at end they are ALL hitting the wall with retiring boomers and NO replacements……
Screwed Millenials?
Hardly.
You have 30-40 years of steady work staring you in the face IF you’re willing to apprentice and (horrors) actually follow directions for 4 years from a stupid journeyman Boomer( I know, I know, The unfairness of it all)………..and are willing to get your hands dirty….the next 30-40 years will be a gravy train of ever increasing hourly wages and endless work…

Engineers? Accountants? Lawyers? Pffft. Replaced by the internet and highly educated people in India, China, Russia that dont even need to immigrate.
BUT .Even in recessions. Toilets plug, power fails, bricks fall, roofs leak.
And no amount of 3rd world internet savvy techhies can help with that.
You need plumbers, electricians, carpenters, masons, sheetmetal workers, glaziers, refrigeration mechanics, boiler repairmen, gasfitters,
And when they hurt themselves…..paramedics, doctors, nurses, physiotherapists, pharmacists, and on and on and on.

Jobs that cant be done via the net from another counrty.

We wont even talk about all the govt orgs that insist on regulating, enforcing, obstructing….the work that contributing memebers of society perform ( outraged civil servants about to become uncivil).

So unless the Temporary Foreign workers serving you coffee and donuts at Tim Hortons have “stolen” your dream job…….

Get a trade. Earn while you learn. No student debt.

Labour shortage.
Meh.
Not from where I stand.

Get a skilled trade. Work for life.

#63 Stan Brooks on 10.15.17 at 10:46 am

There is no more unaffordable and expensive place on earth to live for young professionals than Canada’s big cities. Period.

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.15.17 at 10:52 am

@#27 SCM
“I’ve wasted too much of my life in this hellhole.”
+++++

Pray tell, what is it you know about this ‘hellhole” that 250,000 immigrants per year dont know?

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.15.17 at 10:57 am

@#40 SCM
“Hellhole was being kind. It’s a sh*thole. USA or Europe offer far greener pastures and a much better life.”
+++++

It took 2 whole days to revert to the norm……

I know how fragile some of you Millenials are so dont let the door hit you on the way out….you may break.

#66 Stan Brooks on 10.15.17 at 10:59 am

While the pretty boy is busy pushing his globalist agenda:
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/trudeau-gender-chapter-revamped-nafta-180200562.html

Businesses and employees are struggling:
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/low-wages-small-workforce-leaves-110003292.html

While wild, ‘the conflict of interests’ bill is preparing for the kill.

Nothing new under the sun. Suck it up and move on. And hey, don’f forget to smile while being screwed!

#67 Dissident on 10.15.17 at 12:14 pm

Hey Ry-ry, I read somewhere that because of cheap money since the 2008 crash, instead of using that debt to fund machinery, labor, R&D, companies have spent that money on stock buy-backs, special dividends and mergers and acqusitions, which props up stock prices artificially, creating the illusion of trend lines going up based on actual business activity rather than financial engineering methods like this. That could mean that certain company stocks are overvalued.

How much faith do you place in that hypothesis? This opinion is held by Jeremy Grantham, ‘investing legend’. He cites the ratio of financial engineering to productive spending as 3:1.

#68 Dissident on 10.15.17 at 12:20 pm

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.15.17 at 10:45 am

I hate to burst your tradesman bubble, fartz >:D but I’m guessing you never saw this video.

This Bricklaying Robot Can Build Walls Faster Than Humans (HBO)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-VR4IcDhX0

Not even your blue collar profession is safe.

#69 MF on 10.15.17 at 12:28 pm

#60 Stan Brookes,

Brain washing?

Ah no.

I think our government has screwed up royally, the stock market and RE markets are a disaster as well.

However I’m trying to navigate is as best as I can.

All you ever write is how much you hate the world and Canada on here. Basically blaming everyone else for whatever you are upset about.

How millennial of you.

MF

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.15.17 at 12:57 pm

@#67 Dissident

Well, someone will have to deliver the “robot” to the jobsite, supply the “robot” with material, observe the “robot” to make sure it doesnt screw up, fix the “robot” when it breaks, supply power to the robot……..

Does any of this “compute”?

#71 westcdn on 10.15.17 at 1:51 pm

The easy life of a financial advisor? This story rings true to me. It is better I stick to taking care of myself and giving some free advice while receiving some from others.

I would rather be lucky than good. Unfortunately, luck has a shelf life and it is too fickle for my liking.

http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/10/11/the-single-stock-mishegas/

#72 Bankish on 10.15.17 at 1:58 pm

To Stan Brooks #1

If you invest in dividend stocks as I do your 3% TSX rise over the year would be 7% including 4% average dividend. As I only have the six big Canadian Banks in my portfolio(my personal comfort range) I’m up 34% since Mar 7 2016 and $87,000 in the last 5 weeks. They have averaged 12% over time. I suggest buying blue chip dividend stocks and hold them forever. Over time it will make you a millionaire .

#73 Jungle on 10.15.17 at 6:46 pm

Thanks! Great post again, keep up the good work!!

#74 TRUMP on 10.15.17 at 6:48 pm

To those who think all is good, lets buy on the dips, corporate profits are rising, and the witch-craft induced technicals are giving looking upbeat will soon be fast with the harsh reality

Their only words muttered will be …. What was I thinking.

#75 Tony on 10.15.17 at 7:47 pm

Re: #14 Bud Light on 10.14.17 at 6:23 pm

Zero Hedge is presently pegging it at 44, I peg it at 48.

See chart about three quarters the way down the page for the url.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-15/buffetts-wrong-why-market-valuations-are-not-justified-low-interest-rates