By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
Without completely spoiling for those who live under a rock and haven’t seen the most recent season of House of Cards, let’s just say that the walls are closing in on the protagonist President Underwood, and that things are about to unravel for him in the next season. Many believe the same is destined for the average Canadian household, and in turn the Canadian economy, given our record debt levels and now rising interest rates. While I share these concerns, my conclusions are far less dire than others, which is why I don’t yet own a life supply of tuna cans, a shotgun, and a zombie apocalypse survival kit. In this week’s blog I examine the state of the current Canadian household income and balance sheet, and try to express a more balanced outlook for the average Canadian and our economy.
First, and stating the obvious, Canadians have thrown caution to the wind by dramatically ramping up their debt levels, in large part to fund rising real estate purchases. Total household debt increased to $2.07 trillion in July, which equates to a compounded growth rate (CAGR) of 10.7% since 1980. Of this $2.07 trillion total debt, mortgages account for $1.48 trillion or 71.5%, which is up from 66% in 1980.
Looking at income growth over this period, total Canadian household disposable income has increased from $170 billion in 1980 to $1.2 trillion currently, which equates to a CAGR of 7.1%. So with debt rising at a much higher rate than income growth, we get that rising debt to household income ratio seen below, which currently sits at 170%, up from just 87% in 1990.
As a huge Elvis Presley fan, I can’t help think that our current situation resembles “the King’s” later years when he tipped the scales at over 300 pounds and was gorging on peanut butter, banana, and bacon sandwiches like they were M&M’s. I really hope the average Canadian doesn’t end up like Elvis, slumped over on the toilet with a bad case of constipation or even worse.
Canadian Household Debt and Income Growth
Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments
Canadian Household Debt to Income at New Record High
Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments
Looking at the debt and income statistics one might prematurely conclude that the average Canadian, and our economy, is for the lack of a better term, screwed. We believe this is a bit simplistic and a stretch.
First, job growth in Canada remains very strong which is helping to support income growth. Over the last twelve months the Canadian economy has added 375,000 new jobs with income growth up 3.8% Y/Y. Yes we see interest rates grinding higher which will put additional stress on Canadians over time, but if the labour market remains strong then we expect income growth to hold up, helping to service the higher debt costs.
Second, household consumption is not the only driver of an economy. In Econ 101 we learned that every economy is driven by four main factors. Recall GDP = C (consumption) + G (government) + I (investment) + X (net exports). Even if consumption slows down, which is our belief, then other areas may be able to pick up the slack. With the US and global economy improving we see the potential for higher exports, which would help our manufacturing, resource and other exporting industries. Business investment, which was crushed during the 2015-16 oil collapse, is expected to rebound in the coming years, and government spending could add to economic growth as infrastructure spending picks up.
Third, we saw very similar debt to income statistics in the US prior to the financial crisis with their household debt to income ratio peaking at 168% in 2007. Since then we’ve seen this ratio decline steadily over the years to 140% today. Note below how over this period the US economy continued to grow, albeit at a lower growth rate.
I think this example is pretty instructive as it shows that a declining US household debt to income ratio resulted in a lower growth rate but not a complete collapse in their economy (of course excluding the 2008-09 recession which was short-lived).
So that’s what I think we should expect from the Canadian consumer and economy in the coming years as the average Canadian household begin to address their bloated debt levels and begin to deleverage. We should expect to see lower consumption, and in turn GDP growth, but not a complete meltdown in our economy as some predict.
Bringing it back to my Elvis analogy, instead of Elvis killing himself with excessive eating and a lack of exercise, Canadians are likely to join a Weight Watchers clinic for debt, and slowly over time reduce their bloated debt levels. This will likely result in lower economic growth over the next few years, but not slumped over, dead on the toilet as “the King” did on that sad day.
US Household Debt to Income and GDP
103 comments ↓
I like that analysis a lot!
We should be celebrating the collapse and demise of the Hipster, Feminazi, SJW, Professional career Millennial and Baby Boomer entitlement classes in Canada!
You should’ve seen the amount of “For Sale” signs near the York Mills district of Toronto.
I sense a real estate collapse and closing down of those overpriced Hipster stores…Good riddance!
Poloz appears to be manipulating the currency lower to fleece more foreign investors for a bargain on overpriced Toronto houses. This ain’t gonna work this time. Locked in my US dollars at US$81.5 cents per Poloz peso.
Now that 12 gauge, average citizen and obise Elvis is mentioned…
https://youtu.be/X7zK2MzBvNQ
I would like to travel into the post T2 future (2019?)to see if this country gets back to tax sanity or if we re-elect these bums and become the next first-world country to succumb to banana republic madness!
I own my own business and certainly do not live in the lofty world of Morneau and Trudeau, but for pete’s sake will you loonies in PQ and Ontario quit electing these goofs.
thanks from Alberta
Just remember…when extrapolating
T1 was in Canadian PM when Elvis died
T2 is Canadian PM 40 years later
“We should be celebrating the collapse and demise of the Hipster … ”
Ho hum … another small town hater here …
Keep on paying those debts ….. and thanks for supporting my dividends :)
#208 Smoking Man on 09.30.17 at 2:54 pm
#200 Penny Henny on 09.30.17 at 12:58 pm
to flip or not to flip?
that is the question.
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18704113/9-BIRCHMOUNT-Avenue-Welland-Ontario-L3C4A9
…..
What did you pay for it? Stick around were opening a rehab center in Welland Dec 1st. I’m the first client.
Be drinking coffee only.
//////////////////////////
Smokie, help me out. I’m a little slow today.
1.I didn’t buy it yet I’m considering flipping it.
If I can get it for 250 it think the numbers work.
2. Are you suggesting I need rehab?
3.You are coming down to Welland?
Please stay on the east side, the stories are more interesting and you will fit right in. Come to the west side and there goes the house values.
What is address of the the clinic?
Ryan, you mention a pick up in exports, particularly resources… but given the current state of having to obtain “social license” in order to carry forward with infrastructure projects which enable these resources to be extracted and transported, how do you see this happening? It seems that getting a project off the ground nowadays is a next-to-impossible task.
With the Canadian debt increasing and charts hitting all time highs in this category. What’s lost in translation is there total debt servicing cost of existing debt. In the early 2000s with interest rates much higher, people could not carry all of the debt month to month.
Now with interest rates at generational lows, the debt to income can sustain much higher ratios. Why should someone spend cash today that will be worth much less in the future. Might as well borrow and spend at 5% while investing in cash flow generating assets at 10%
Canadians don’t have the willpower to reduce consumption and debt – they will continue to feed at the trough until they burst
RATM
Ryan, are you suggesting salaries have risen by 7% per year? People are LUCKY if they get inflation and since 2008 i would suggest we are in negative territory.
Total household debt increased to $2.07 trillion in July, which equates to a compounded growth rate (CAGR) of 10.7% since 1980. Of this $2.07 trillion total debt, mortgages account for $1.48 trillion or 71.5%, which is up from 66% in 1980.-Dougie
///////
So, mortgage debt went from
66% in 1980 to 71.5 % in 2017. Sounds very reasonable to me. Please explaind why this 66% to 71.5% (or basically 8% increase) is worrisome?
Sorry if this is something you have covered but I just don’t get it.
House prices up a gazillion percent and mortgage debt only up 8%??
Ryan, could you touch on the effects the ‘proposed’ tax changes might have on the Exports & Investment side of things? Will a hit to the small business contingent in this country negatively impact what scarce capital we do have?
Top marks go to you, excellent post. Better then our BOC or other pretend economists.
Go Canada GO!
“We should expect to see lower consumption”
Keep dreamin
I don’t understand the t-shirt. Did I miss something?
I don’t look at things through rose-coloured glasses.
Pink Pumpkins being carved in West Vancouver.
These guys probably thought there was no harm in picking up one of the cheaper properties to speculate in West Vancouver ,but they are struggling to break even after expenses.
Picked up for 1.28 in January this year ,most likely when all their competitors were huddled beside the fireplace with an assessment of 1.26 for this 90 year old antique.
This is one end of the scale , I will show you the heavier a side in a minute.
Strange time of year to go antique shopping…
M43BC
6438 Marine Drive, West Vancouver
Aug 22:$1,480,000
Sep 27: $1,380,000
Change: – 100000.00 -7%
https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/6438-marine-drive
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyOFpXVQ==
Ryan, I like your analysis and I am hoping you can comment on the likelihood of extraordinary measures such as those seen in the States from 2008 onward when Canada is dealing with its debt hangover. Do you expect emergency rates and QE from the BoC, or do you think we can chug along without the life support that was brought in in the US?
Extrapolating Justin’s balls…
Methinks Justin is juggling too many things at once..they are all inter-related…its a matter of which blows up first out of his control vs what he is trying delay.
IMHO…He and BILDERBERGER Moroneau, in trying to glean $250+ million in taxes from the private sector, are clearly siding with the public sector…which extrapolates to a very uncertain long term future.
Pink Pumpkins being carved in West Vancouver.
O.k so we carved a small pumpkin just to get our eye in now let’s have a crack at one a few sizes up.
Borderline Pink Pumpkin as it stands but anyone paying attention knows this is where some of the biggest pain is being felt.
I have probably around 10 other cases that are in this area in roughly the same price point hanging on and if you remember it was this price point and this city that took the biggest hit so far of 1 million dollars or roughly a 20% loss.
Picked up for 4.16 in February 2016 , with an assessment pretty much the same they need to get a deal done at this number to walk away with just a few singed hairs.
Didn’t anyone tell them it’s not safe to pick up the hot potato…
2035 Russet Way, West Vancouver
Aug 29:$4,988,000
Sep 27: $4,588,000
Change: – 400000.00 -8%
https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=2035%20Russet%20Way,%20West%20Vancouver&ptype_house=1&max_price=1300000&min_price=800000&filter=1
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyOTVBOQ==
“I think this example is pretty instructive as it shows that a declining US household debt to income ratio resulted in a lower growth rate but not a complete collapse in their economy (of course excluding the 2008-09 recession which was short-lived).”
—–
I don’t disagree on the above point when considered at a macro level. At a micro or household level, I think the effects were devastating and will be so here in Canada as well. Everything in the U.S. Was set up to allow the economy to deleverage however it does become a zero sum game. Individuals and households were the loosers.
Yes, this will occur in Canada as well. There is no choice. Rates rising, inflation officially not moving up much, wage growth flat and not keeping pace is a recipe for pain, plain and simple. And those same individuals and households will accept being on the short end of the stick. They have no choice because the lenders from which they borrowed from without restraint will squeeze them like like little pimples. The only alternative will be bankruptcy and/or the loss of their toys including the real estate they own. Don’t count out a zombie apocalypse, Ryan. I give it 99.9% odds of happening so have that survival kit ready. LOL
In my case, I have no debt. I don’t own. I rent. Lots of highly liquid investments in a balanced and diversified portfolio of ETFs. Over the last week from Monday to Friday, I watched how that portfolio coasted going from 4.99%, then to 4.74%, 4.95%, 5.12%, and finally ending the week at a YTD 5.75% (all distributions included). Plugging in those numbers at the end of each day only takes a couple of minutes of my time. I love the fact that I get distributions while I’m not even trying or even awake. And yes, there are days like Tuesday when it dropped to 4.74% and I feel a bit down but the impact is so well cushioned that it’s a non-event and takes away the panic of only being invested in one thing, be it real estate or a particular “hail mary” stock.
My piece of avise to everyone. Deleverage now even if you have to leave some dollars on the table. What is coming is going to cause a YUGE whiplash that will take years, if not decades for individuals to crawl back out from. I’m sure the new conversation around the watercooler will not be about real estate. It will be about the winners who deleveraged fast enough versus the loosers who did not. Please be winners for your own sakes.
“which is why I don’t yet own a life supply of tuna cans, a shotgun, and a zombie apocalypse survival kit.”
He who panics first panics best
You’re selling a slow burn in the economy and not to panic.
I don’t share your enthusiasm.
Last year almost all jobs created were part-time.
Consumer spending is at $1 Trillion, more than half of the fueled by credit. They are not paying off debt, it increased by $2 Billion from July to Aug to $592 million. More than half the Cdn. economy is based on consumer spending. about 55%.
Home prices drop due to rising rates and B20 disqualifying a lot of buyers and dropping their mortgage amounts.
That will diminish the feeling of wealth on paper as RE prices drop due to rate increases and fewer buyers with less money.
50% live paycheck to paycheck and the savings rate is at a paltry 4.6%.
I think your slow burn will be much faster, under a year, and your G + I offsetting $1 Trillion in spending is like urinating in the Pacific Ocean and measuring the water level increase.
A faster burn as people feel less wealthy and expenses go up. And if that affects jobs, and it probably will, then we will be in real trouble.
This is definitely a bad omen for these carnival sideshow markets….
http://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/30/obituaries/monty-hall-dead-lets-make-a-deal.html
Sobriety and lucid clear headed objectivity are in short supply.
I am far more bearish which will not surprise a lot of people on here.
I am not sure we can assume the US is improving. Q2 GDP was an upside surprise, but Q3 preliminary is much lower. They’ve had three rate rises already, and another one coming in December. If Kevin Warsh is the next Fed Chairman, rates will rise all next year. They are starting to unload 4 trillion of crap from their balance sheet which will cause yields to rise. And they have a whole host of problems (auto and student debt to name two) that have been masked under this ridiculous stock market bubble.
Here, we have far worse debt metrics than the US had at its housing top. The housing correction will cause all kinds of job loss from the shysters to mortgage brokers to tradespeople.
With the CAD having risen so much and the coming US problems, I doubt our exporting holds up. I see our good GDP numbers slipping a lot, and rapidly.
#8 Penny Henny
A brick bungalow in Ontario on free-hold land for $264k ?
That sound like pricing from the previous millennium.
Get it!
PS: Just looked up the town on the map: close to Niagara falls too! Seems like a bargain to me.
Well, I suppose as a portfolio manager Ryan has has to be optimistic about something.
I personally don’t share his optimism. Canadian (and American and European and pretty much everyone else) citizens have been doing exactly what they elected their governments to do: load up on future promises that can’t and won’t be paid back. All one has to do to understand that is look at the various pension problems coming to the news even though we all always knew with certainty these schemes were not sustainable in the long run. Unfortunately the short run always becomes the long run.
Pension plans, government bonds, indeed most finance has always been about transferring wealth from wealth from people who have it now to people who don’t with some sort of paper promise that the people who don’t have wealth will somehow pay it back “one day”. But “one day” never comes and the wealth will not be paid back. It can’t be. The economy works in real time and all those government bonds that you think are storing your wealth can’t and won’t. The money has been spent, the goods consumed. There is no money “in the future” to pay them back. The money was earned in real time, borrowed in real time, spent in real time, and is now gone. It won’t be coming back in the future which is why all levels of debt especially government debt only rise and they never go down without a repudiation of the debt, only a few examples in history to the contrary.
When a country repudiates their debt, or a business (there will be a lot of that after Moronreau is done) or a consumer just can’t pay his debt’s, the wealth represented by the bond or the bank loan goes away. What was some store of value and paying interest becomes Bre-X wall paper.
What you have to understand folks, and it’s quite simple. The economy works in real time. Debt in all it’s forms is a lie that you will get paid back. You can only get paid back with more debt. Just try getting back that $200 your friend owes you and you’ll know what I mean. He wouldn’t have borrowed it from you if he had any way of paying it back.
#13 Henny Penny
———
I do believe the below point is the more relevant issue.
“So with debt rising at a much higher rate than income growth, we get that rising debt to household income ratio seen below, which currently sits at 170%, up from just 87% in 1990.”
Can you say indentured slavery shall be the new fashion to come?
What you’re asking about relates to what component of total debt is for mortgages being at 71.5%. I don’t believe household debt was $2.07 trillion in 1980. I think total debt is probably way worse now than at that time even when inflation is factored in. Can you say these puppies (personal households and individuals) are screwed, blued and tattooed?
Nothing to be proud regarding the statement “…job growth in Canada remains very strong which is helping to support income growth.”
The job growth is mostly Part-Time potions, not Full-Time, its a massive difference. Regarding income growth, there is none for most, if you can do better than inflation, congratulations.
Ex: Full time job creation, Canada
2014 = 156,000
2015 = 147,000
2016 = 60,000 (Part-time was 154,000 that year!)
#17 Deplorable steerage. on 09.30.17 at 7:06 pm
“I don’t understand the t-shirt. Did I miss something?”
LOL Yes.
Pink Pumpkins being carved in Vancouver.
During the Spring and Summer of 2016 I saw this type of house going for this type of money in my neighborhood and I just kept asking myself ” What are they hoping to get out of it” and also “” If this is happening in my neighborhood could it also be happening across all of Vancouver.”
Well thanks to an extended period off work ,I now have a better picture as to what is going on and that picture is uglier than I originally suspected.
This house was picked up for the outrageous price of 1.8 million in June 2016 when the traffic light had already changed from green to flashing amber.
It is a 56 build and is assessed at the much lower number of 1.55.
Who knows how long they will hold on for but is an outside chance to be a half million dollar hit with everything factored in.
I am surrounded by similar purchases as the money swept east but now the tide is moving back to the west but only for the cheapest of the boats.
Some of these guys thought that they were buying yachts but ended up with rubber dinghies with slow leaks.
I have neighbours that have been bailing water for a year now so fatigue must be becoming a factor.
They have ripped arms though…
M43BC
1969 E 8th Avenue, Vancouver
Jun 13:$1,888,000
Sep 27: $1,598,000
Change: – 290000.00 -15%
https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=1969%20E%208th%20Avenue,%20Vancouver&ptype_house=1&max_price=1300000&min_price=800000&filter=1
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwM0I4Nw==
Ryan – love the photo… You and I must share the same Twitter summary… ;-)
I loved how many econ students did not get the t-shirt… Very funny!
While there is hope that business/government/exports can weather the storm. I’m not sure that the world economy has the same oomph to buy our goods like in 2008-10.
One thing I am seeing in Vancouver / Victoria right now is manic spending. Everyone is going out, life is a big party, etc. I remember people acting this way just prior to both the 2001 and 2008 decline while in the US. I sometimes think we are like rats in the cage and sense some impending doom at a subconscious level.
This is the behavior right before things go to…
*** Do I get bonus points for using the same example as the T-shirt?! ;-)
Any crystal balls?
1. What if Free Trade with the USA….dies….and we go back to the days before free trade existed?
2. What will happen to Canada …if in USA….. Total taxes raised go down and Government spending goes way up?
We all know Trump Family and Friends will be happy…….more money to hide in Swiss Banks and questionable islands……just like the old Mafia used to do in Cuba….where they invested in Real Estate.
This post is for the Happy Housing Crash guy..
“Find Out If Your Job Will Be Automated”
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-job-risk/
You will be happy to read that Real Estate Brokers are at the top of the food chain (to be eaten that is!).
Computerization probability = 97% OUCH!!
Here is a scenario worth contemplating about
– NAFTA gets killed and Canadian exports hit a protectionist US wall like the 220% Bombardier duty. No wonder out prince Valiant is travelling quietly to the US to grovel in front of Trump
– US business tax cuts results in overheating US economy and rapid inflation
– US interest rates start going up big time prompted by the overheating economy
– Canada has no choice but to increase the interest rates MORE than US to keep its currency from completely diving
– Canadian Real-estate goes completely belly-up taking the Banks with them
– Next 20 years Canada struggles to get over its Real Estate and Oil /Commodities addiction and finally start to develop real value added products and services. People start focusing on STEM disciplines because there is no money to be made flipping houses to each other or digging stuff from the earth and shipping it.
I think this is not just looking possible but pretty probably now
“First, job growth in Canada remains very strong which is helping to support income growth. Over the last twelve months the Canadian economy has added 375,000 new jobs with income growth up 3.8% Y/Y. ”
Sir, what a load of BS!!!!
What a load !!
You quote this from govt. stats? If you do, you are not a professional..
Show me the numbers from independent sources, sir.
Reality is far worse than what the govt. says.
You and I will be here in a year’s time. Let us exchange views 12 months. Kindly mark it in your calendar. I’ve already done so.
CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.
This one is not the biggest loss but a lot of people seem to still think that people on the lower end are still o.k and so let’s look at the details of this relatively affordable house.
The details…
Paid 1.10 June 2016
Sold 1.13 August 2017
So they got roughly 2.5% more but after expenses and such probably a 5.5% loss or roughly 60k with the details available…
M43BC
2553 Bluebell Avenue, Coquitlam, BC, V3E 2H7
$1,288,000
2017-05-02
Now asking 998k .
https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=2553%20Bluebell%20Avenue,%20Coquitlam&filter=1
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzWEhaSg==
Johnny D “Ryan, you mention a pick up in exports, particularly resources… but given the current state of having to obtain “social license” in order to carry forward with infrastructure projects which enable these resources to be extracted and transported, how do you see this happening? It seems that getting a project off the ground nowadays is a next-to-impossible task.”
I don’t know much about these social licenses so not sure how much they would impact new infrastructure projects. But I see major projects occurring over all Canada right now including Windsor’s new highways leading to the new bridge, in Toronto the Eglinton LRT and soon the new pipelines across AB and BC. I suspect these new social licenses may slow down the process but I don’t think they will make them next to possible to build. – Ryan L
albertaguy “Ryan, are you suggesting salaries have risen by 7% per year? People are LUCKY if they get inflation and since 2008 i would suggest we are in negative territory.”
Incomes include salaries and much more. I don’t have the salary data handy right now but I can say definitively total income has grown at that 7% rate since 1980. I know it’s slowed in recent years but that number is accurate since that date. – Ryan L
Ryan, I’m all for optimism but Canada is not the USA. We are a much smaller population/economy & given that our largest trading partner (still the USA) has indicated that they want to change/end most/all of the trade agreements currently in effect the status quo is unlikely to continue to apply. Job growth could be abruptly curtailed; exports may not flow as freely; & our ability to right the listing ship of debt may be compromised. Also, job growth does not automatically equate to income growth. Income, yes – growth, maybe not. If I were laid off a full time position that paid $50,000 per annum & then found two part time jobs that paid $20,000 each per annum, my annual income would still be less, even though job growth had occurred.
Jas “Sir, what a load of BS!!!! What a load !!
You quote this from govt. stats? If you do, you are not a professional..Show me the numbers from independent sources, sir. Reality is far worse than what the govt. says.”
Not really sure what to say here. Yes I’m using government labour statistics so I guess in your books I’m not a professional?? There are no reliable independent sources that calculate and record monthly national job statistics. Think of what would be involved to set this up and track that. If you have this data I would love to see it. – Ryan L
o that’s what I think we should expect from the Canadian consumer and economy in the coming years as the average Canadian household begin to address their bloated debt levels and begin to deleverage.
—————————–
If most of Canadians’ debt is mortgage, and most of those are living paycheck to paycheck, how can they address their bloated debt levels, esp . if interest rates go up?
Haha, gotta love the Elvis analogy. Thanks for another informative post Ryan, there’s a lot of doom and gloom about the Canadian economy these days, it’s good to have a bit of a balanced overview taking more than just debt and housing into consideration.
The Millennial Menu to raise Consumption variable of the equation:
https://screenshots.firefox.com/BImxrH6BTFmvRnnC/scontent-lax3-2.xx.fbcdn.net
Jack Mintz on US tax reform…
http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/jack-mintz-trumps-tax-bombshell-is-going-to-blow-up-canadas-competitiveness
PCs Hold Clear Lead in Every Region but Toronto, where they’re tied
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2788/ontario-horserace-september-2017
Toronto, September 28th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 801 Ontario voters, more than four in ten (44%) say that if an election were held today, they would support the Ontario PCs. Just over a quarter (27%) say they would support the NDP, and fewer than a quarter (22%) say they would support the Liberals. Few (5%) say they would support the Green party, while (2%) say they would support another party.
#17 Deplorable steerage. on 09.30.17 at 7:06 pm
I don’t understand the t-shirt. Did I miss something.
Ahahaha… That’s awesome. My tummy hurts.
No, you did not miss anything. You perfectly completed the t-shirt….. yu know, as the “second kind….. that can’t” Read it again.
I have been long $US investments (individual value growth stocks) since the $CDN was around .95 $US. My long-term prognosis of the Canadian economic strength is not as optimistic as most. I just don’t really see where the growth is going to come from, save perhaps an uptick some in high-tech jobs. (I do believe Canada is punching above its weight in AI research). For the rest of the economy, it seems PM Trudeau & Wynne are overtly trying to destroy it in the name of political correctness. If Pres Trump passes any kind of tax reforms, I believe the $US will rebound, the US economy will accelerate and the Canadian economy will be left in the US dust.
However, If the tax plan does get accepted, I would also be hyper-vigilant that the US economy doesn’t eventually implode once again, due to worsening revenues.
http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/jack-mintz-trumps-tax-bombshell-is-going-to-blow-up-canadas-competitiveness
Headed up to my biweekly golf lesson in Richmond Hill this am.
Afterwards I drive around for a bit to see what’s up in housing. Today I saw WAY more open house signs than I did last time I was up there. Including from some Realtor team called recordhigh.ca. Speaking of second websites, they may need to register recordlow.ca!
Linda “Ryan, I’m all for optimism but Canada is not the USA. Linda “We are a much smaller population/economy & given that our largest trading partner (still the USA) has indicated that they want to change/end most/all of the trade agreements currently in effect the status quo is unlikely to continue to apply. Job growth could be abruptly curtailed; exports may not flow as freely; & our ability to right the listing ship of debt may be compromised.”
We have always been a small country so this is a constant, NAFTA impact may end up being less than anticipated, if we send less to the US then we could send more to Asia. There are always negatives to consider but I feel what is often lost in the noise are the positive things that end up outweighing the negatives. Canada is a rich and resilient country and I feel pretty confident we’ll work through these problems. If not then I’ll still have the tuna cans… – Ryan L
allovertheplace “Ryan, could you touch on the effects the ‘proposed’ tax changes might have on the Exports & Investment side of things? Will a hit to the small business contingent in this country negatively impact what scarce capital we do have?”
It won’t help. This combined with higher minimum wages, high energy costs, and generally rising taxes is not generally conducive to fostering growth. I think this is what is missed between the Provinicial and Federal governments. Its the cumulative impact of all these new policies on businesses. But as I said in an earlier post we’ll figure it out. That’s what elections are for. Ryan L
Positive outlook till you look around yourself. Do you believe it?
Agenda 2030 explained.
Read the article below. Think about the Dr Tax and all the stuff T2 and Wynee are doing. This is the blue print they were sold.
https://www.naturalnews.com/051058_2030_Agenda_United_Nations_global_enslavement.html
Smoking Man on 09.30.17 at 10:13 pm
Agenda 2030 explained.
Read the article below. Think about the Dr Tax and all the stuff T2 and Wynee are doing. This is the blue print they were sold.
https://www.naturalnews.com/051058_2030_Agenda_United_Nations_global_enslavement.html
—————————————————————
When they went for the unions everyone cheered as they smashed them apart. Then they went after the workers and everyone else cheered. Now they are going after small biz. Guess what its pay back time as the masses cheer to their destruction. See how it goes? Once the union was broken they had the power to go after everyone. The union kept you all safe and now you will suffer. Not so funny when its your turn.
#55 Smoking Man on 09.30.17 at 10:13 pm
Agenda 2030 explained.
Read the article below. Think about the Dr Tax and all the stuff T2 and Wynee are doing. This is the blue print they were sold.
https://www.naturalnews.com/051058_2030_Agenda_United_Nations_global_enslavement.html
…..
You really should lay off the eco hamster food….
“Ranger Bucket Organic Emergency Storable Food Supply – Organic, lab-verified and made completely without junk ingredients, GMOs, hidden MSG or other junk”
Get the shotgun anyway.
Debt is not income, corporations also growing debt faster than consumers, expanded debt fueled buy-backs have distorted market values.
What to watch…
Bond Market – bonds set to surge. NK/TRUMP risk real
Real Estate – Rates up, B/20, less credit
China RE – Reversal risk rising
US/Budget – Lower taxes, higher rates
Pensions – Massive underfunding, most corps/public
NAFTA – higher duties, mild trade disruptions
Taxes – increased taxes, impact consumer confidence
Tech – Robo, AI, IOT, Bio, Nano, disruption continues, capital displacing labour.
EU – Economic/political risks persist.
This is some seriously bad writing
I understand that timing the market is a fools errand but we are currently in the longest bull market for stocks in the history of the world. This concerns me.
My gut tells me to go heavy cash(nearing retirement) but I don’t want to be the guy that goes against what the doctor ordered either.
The bigger they are the harder they fall. Are you not concerned about this????
Interesting. Morneau Shepell Inc.
https://www.google.ca/search?client=ms-android-samsung&ei=OnjQWd-DOoLsmAHRubXIAQ&q=morneau+shepell+ticker&oq=morneau+shepell+ticker&gs_l=mobile-gws-serp.12..0.3147.8433.0.9359.10.9.1.0.0.0.252.1497.0j6j2.8.0.dummy_maps_web_fallback…0…1.1j4.64.mobile-gws-serp..1.9.1536…0i20i263k1j0i67k1j0i22i30k1j33i21k1.178.DMKV20PA74s
……..
Not doing so good. What do they sell. Benifits and pension consulting.
Let’s wipe out entrupenurs pention planing in private corps and hope they come running to us for help.
Not a chance.
NDP what wrong with you, they are coming to steel your base. For profit and power by the looks of it
T2 Billy boy. Never fk with a Nictonite.
#13 Penny Henny on 09.30.17 at 6:34 pm
Total household debt increased to $2.07 trillion in July, which equates to a compounded growth rate (CAGR) of 10.7% since 1980. Of this $2.07 trillion total debt, mortgages account for $1.48 trillion or 71.5%, which is up from 66% in 1980.-Dougie
///////
So, mortgage debt went from
66% in 1980 to 71.5 % in 2017. Sounds very reasonable to me. Please explaind why this 66% to 71.5% (or basically 8% increase) is worrisome?
Sorry if this is something you have covered but I just don’t get it.
House prices up a gazillion percent and mortgage debt only up 8%??
————
Get it!
Cash is king.
Same reason why Richmond, BC. has one of the highest house prices in Canada.
But is the third poorest city in the country.
But can’t have a a reasoned discussion about this on this blog, because Garth will delete it.
Did you know your name rhymes with Influenza? Just sayin….
#19, #22, #33, #39 For those about to flop…
Give the guy a couple of days off and look at what he delivers…good posts Flop, very informative.
_____________________________
What I would like to see is Assignment data from new developments in YVR or 416 made public.
Last I read CRA was in court with 2 YVR Developers to get their client lists (Jul. 27) and they fined a Surrey man $130 K for not declaring Rental Income (Aug. 2017).
Quiet since then.
Saretsky, a YVR Realtor, reckons upwards of 25% of new developments are Assignments and they are probably not declaring capital gains.
Like Dr. Raymond Ambrose Liang which in 2010 was fined $365,000 in unreported income from four assignment-clause flips and a condo sold through a shell company. This was the LAST Assignment tax cheat caught by CRA…7 years ago.
Rather than persecuting small business, T2 and Morneau should be persecuting these people instead.
These are the true tax cheats, not some small business guy.
#40 Ryan Lewenza on 09.30.17 at 8:54 pm
Johnny D “Ryan, you mention a pick up in exports, particularly resources… but given the current state of having to obtain “social license” in order to carry forward with infrastructure projects which enable these resources to be extracted and transported, how do you see this happening? It seems that getting a project off the ground nowadays is a next-to-impossible task.”
I don’t know much about these social licenses so not sure how much they would impact new infrastructure projects. But I see major projects occurring over all Canada right now including Windsor’s new highways leading to the new bridge, in Toronto the Eglinton LRT and soon the new pipelines across AB and BC. I suspect these new social licenses may slow down the process but I don’t think they will make them next to possible to build. – Ryan L
—————-
Ryan, now you are scaring me.
The BC NDP just killed the following:
The site C dam, estimated cost 9 bill.
A bridge over the Fraser, estimated cost 4 bill.
And, Btw, Elvis has left the building.
Nicely and controlled. We’re saved!
Ryan,
“and soon the new pipelines in BC and AB.
Maybe you should come out West more often.
To see how naive you are.
Great post Ryan,
I enjoy your style.
My thoughts:
There is some issues with calculating GDP in the way proposed as it does not reflect the borrowing, it is gross GDP vs. net national income.
For example if I live on my credit card and decide to spend twice my income in a year borrowing it, while not working and producing anything, my ‘GDP’ will double 100 % for that year.
If we consider that:
– major part of the consumption is due to increasing debt
– government spending depends on housing and deficit
– there are significant non-deposit loans on the balance sheets of the banks – external financing to the tune of 100 billions a year
the situation suddenly becomes less rosy.
There was a big problem with growing the debt to these levels, it has become a structural one.
There will be no easy way out of this as Poloz himself said.
The ultimate ‘Trudeau Survival Kit’ is……a passport…..and a million or few in offshore accts. if you got debts and obligations testiculating your freedom of movement……youse a gonna lose. Trudeau is CONFISCATING savings. The doctors and farmers are first…not last. Let’s understand…..the incorporators would have paid tax on their savings on withdrawal…just like you when you start drawing down your RRSP. But Trudeau wants to CONFISCATE 73% of savings of perfectly law biding business people. Is he doing this to the union perks…..like the free dental and medical benefits….? No……then why not?
Friends , this is theft…..this is CONFISCATION. And if you’re stupid to believe doctors and farmers are tax cheats……well hermano……you got a soft spot where your mama dropped you.
Like they said after the Nazi’s torched Europe….” Why didn’t just a few people speak up”. ‘Cause babydoll…..if they’re stealing the plumbers retirement now…..how long do you think it will be before Trudeau considers your home equity….’unfair’?
Btw…….waaaaahoooooo…..what a September! I’m all in…..and lovin it. Buying with both fists.
I think that inflating Canada out of its boomer liabilities was the plan all along- in hindsight. Give everyone free money, pump housing, condos , get people spending. Buy a house, finance furniture, buy new car , monthly cheap a 0%, buy, buy and spend was the goal.
If that wasn’t done and CBC “news” and every major paper didn’t get on board brainwashing the herd to buy 5 condos where would Canada be now? Think about it. Other than real estate what does Canada have?
The problem is that all the money went into 1 asset. Hence rockstar realturds making a a killing and anything real estate related , all based on how much debt the herd can max out. Or is a 875k house in aldergrove a bargain based on ave household incomes of 72k gross a year?
That is now the reality in BC , and if you mix in massive investment from overseas , basically why NDP won- on promises of doing something about housing affordability.
How is that working out- NDP just basically said, we don’t want to touch housing because we can’t mess with people’s hard earned equity- but we will build a bunch of boxes for the homeless ( which is good)… no gov wants to be the one responsible for the reality that has to happen-
Wasn’t the NDP major platform to make housing affordable? Funny- another typical say anything the voters want to hear to get elected then do nothing and backpedal, but at least they are still studying the situation- my point again no political party has the balls to do anything because they don’t want to be seen as reason for crash.
Maybe Christy Clark was genius – knew she was getting the boot, put in 37k free grant to push condos up ever higher so nothing is affordable around YVR and let the NDP who promised a solution to take the hit for 16 years of liberal sell out policies and resulting housing unaffordable crisis.
Anyhow… solution is either rates rise and prices fall or everyone gets a massive raise every year so debt becomes manageable at higher rates- meaning inflate out of debt and eventually you can just wipe you arse with a 50$ bill because the value of money means zilch. Or what does 50 buy you in Canada now… what did you get for 50$ 15 years ago?
Anyhow, let’s see if the master plan plays out and housing stays super high but everyone gets nice wage increases to off set the higher costs of living.
#25 Dolce Vita
——–
I think it plays out more that that too especially in YVR and GTA where people guzzled the coolaid . The wealth effect is huge so don’t underestimate it…
If you bought a house or condo 2 years ago and it’s up 50k you act a lot different than if it dropped 25k in value.
You are smarter, cockier, you are an investing guru who can feel the pulse of the real estate market- you always knew real estate only ever goes up. Maybe you can get in on a presale? Yes you should have bought 2 condos .. anyhow, go treat yourself to something nice, after all you are 50k richer!!
But if you are 25k down… f”&*!!! Who can I blame? Think how you spend will change too?
That is only theoretical though because real estate never goes down.
“but if the labour market remains strong then we expect income growth to hold up, helping to service the higher debt costs.” – Ryan
——————————————————————–
Ah yes. And there you have it.
Keep on working and growing your income, in order to service your higher debt costs.
Keep running on that treadmill, you debt rats, while the speed and incline continually increase. Don’t you dare stop, or you’ll be flung into the brick wall behind you and squashed like a bug.
Me? I abandoned the rat race. Freedom is way better than working like a dog to service debt.
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&ved=0ahUKEwjc3fb7oc_WAhXFLSYKHbGZCvEQjRwIBw&url=http%3A%2F%2Ftamegoeswild.com%2Fall_about_the_tame%2Fratrace.htm&psig=AOvVaw34yqlXYuZI4M2DT8hBgmeu&ust=1506941833312359
WARNING TO YOUNG AMBITIOUS WANNABEs:
http://tamegoeswild.com/all_about_the_tame/ratrace.htm
Beware of debt!
It will DESTROY your life.
I agree with your analysis almost entirely. However, a controlled deleveraging could easily morph into a crisis due to an exogenous economic event. I think Canada is walking on a tight rope in this regard. Risk is high here.
Bottom line: Canada will underperform the US and technology rich emerging market economies for some time. We are in the post commodity bubble (post Canada and commodity centric economies bubble) portion of the cycle. Real estate is the last asset class to revert to the mean post any economic boom. It’s the ultimate lagging indicator. This is not unique to Canada.
The time to own US equities & USD is now. We’re in the early innings (probably 2nd inning) of a long term global economic expansion and global secular bull market lead by the US. Overweight the S&P500. Period. The US lead bull market has spread to Europe and is now pulling up the TSX and eventually even the ASX 200. Even the laggards will go up. Even turkeys can fly in a windstorm.
But it’s always best to buy the leader: US equities. Don’t fall for the Europe valuation story. It could be a value trap. In the stock market you get what you pay for.
Simplicity is the best option. Just buy US equities. Stay long and keep buying whenever possible. VFV in $CAD. VOO in $US.
#17 Deplorable steerage. on 09.30.17 at 7:06 pm
“I don’t understand the t-shirt. Did I miss something?”
The data isn’t complete…..but the conclusion is loud and clear.
Penny Henny “Mortgage debt went from 66% in 1980 to 71.5 % in 2017. Sounds very reasonable to me. Please explaind why this 66% to 71.5% (or basically 8% increase) is worrisome?”
The current 71.5% just refers to mortgage debt of total debt outstanding. So credit cards, lines of credit etc. represent the difference or 28.5%. I just included that number to show how mortgage debt now makes up a larger percentage of total debt. But overall debt, with mortgages representing roughly 70%, has grown at nearly 11% per year since 1980. That’s the important number. – Ryan L
Ponzius Pilatus “Ryan, now you are scaring me. The BC NDP just killed the following: The site C dam, estimated cost 9 bill. A bridge over the Fraser, estimated cost 4 bill. And, Btw, Elvis has left the building.”
The site C dam is under review but nothing is confirmed yet. I agree that this would be a terrible decision and once again show how shortsighted politicians are. I ultimately see the Trans Mountain pipeline extension being approved despite the BC NDP government trying to kill it. Here’s a list of other infrastructure projects in BC. http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/pt-sp/projects-list-liste-projets-bc-eng.html – Ryan L
We need complete data! :-) “GDP = C (consumption) + G (government) + I (investment) + X (net exports)” Like GDP minus government spending. How much housing debt is actually HELOCs and not a primary mortgage? Too easy for government to skew the number with debt spending on GDP. It would be so great to know the GDP variables. I’ve searched Statscan for government spending. Would like to know if the heat from the fire is good base of long lasting hardwood coals or PMJT just threw gasoline on it. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/nea/index
#10 has a good point. Low interest makes a lot of this analysis incomplete. It’s about debt servicing cost, not debt itself for the most part. Same goes for the belief that a house should not exceed 3.5 times gross earnings. Any good mathematician would throw the old out the window and factor in an interest rate component. Foreign buyers and locals that went in “over their heads” almost a decade ago were the smart ones.
#36 Asterix1 on 09.30.17 at 8:26 pm
“This post is for the Happy Housing Crash guy..
“Find Out If Your Job Will Be Automated”
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-job-risk/
You will be happy to read that Real Estate Brokers are at the top of the food chain (to be eaten that is!).
Computerization probability = 97% OUCH!!”
I think you’ll find that it will make many more than just HHC guy happy.
I’m feeling like Krug and Dom all around, accompanied by the beat of “Hey Ya!”.
Party on dawgs!
‘We are not entitled’: Hundreds of business leaders urge Trudeau to ‘reconsider’ tax plan
http://www.bnn.ca/we-are-not-entitled-hundreds-of-business-leaders-urge-trudeau-to-reconsider-tax-plan-1.872237
A new group of Canadian business leaders, entrepreneurs and philanthropists are calling on the federal government to “reconsider” its three-pronged plan to reform tax rules for private corporations.
As of Sunday morning, there were more than 260 signatories to The Council of Progressive Business Leaders’ open letter to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, posted at http://www.wtfjt.ca.
“Canadians elected you on a platform of hope,” reads the letter.
#70…….you’re on the right track, but far to many Canadians who can actually afford to do this won’t, because they are scared shitless to lose their “free” healthcare, and dream of a pension they’re going to get screwed out of anyways. They can’t see their toes “cause of their bellies.
I’d like to let them in on a little secret.
YOU’RE GONNA DIE REGARDLESS !!!!
“Free” healthcare is a scam…….and by the time you get diagnosed in Canada, you’re probably terminal.
Escape the borg. Life sucks in North America. Sitting here on the 17th floor balong watching the ocean in 32 degree weather musing over which t-shirt to wear and which beach to walk is killing me.
Ryan……
Forgot to add that your visual of Elvis on Para 4 took away my appetite for lunch. Probably gonna go liquid instead of solid after my 10K beach stroll.
I was at 35,000′ in a CAF 707 over the North Atlantic on my way to a 90 day TDY at CFB Lahr in West Germany when the pilot announced his death. A sad day indeed.
“The site C dam is under review but nothing is confirmed yet. I agree that this would be a terrible decision and once again show how shortsighted politicians are.”
+++++++
Ryan
Your Blog subject is about unecessary debt……
Site C
A political White elephant if there ever was one.
A “legacy project” for a former Premier with an ego even larger than the ever rising budget.
Originally proposed at $2 billion estimates now say $14 billion and rising.
The Site C dam was rammed through without a proper environmental review. Some of the people on the Review panel resigned in protest.
The dam is being built on unstable ground( The area was rejected by two previous govts ( WC Bennet and Bill Bennet). A bridge built on the Alaska Hwy over the same river collapsed due to soil slumping in the late 1940’s. They rebuilt in another area.
The fracking for natural gas in the area has caused earthquakes and heavy rains have caused ‘slumping” or mudslides of the newly created dirt sides of the dam(adding to its cost)
The site C Dam was supoosedly being built to provide power for up to 400,000 homes ,industry (see previously mention Nat Gas) and resale to the States.
Estimates of the economic viablity of Nat Gas production( and the electricity required to cool it into a liquid) are now in the tank due to the world wide gas glut.
The US wont pay more than market rate for our power and the cost of the dam will ensure the electricity provided to them will be sold at a loss…….
Current technologies( windmills, solar, and more importantly geothermal since BC has hotsprings all over the Province) would provide the power for a much cheaper( economically and environmentally) price.
Site C will become the Muskrat Falls boondoggle of the west.
Obscenely over budget, an environmental nightmare and , once again, taxpayers will be on the hook for generations( Millenials grandchildren?) to pay off the debt.
Christy Clark once bragged that she would get that Dam built to the “point of no return” so that if the next govt tried to shelve it (due to a Court ordered environmental review )….. taxpayers would scream bloody murder.
She may have her wish.
1st nations are against it, environmentalists are against it, farmers who have ranched in the area for well over 100 years are being expropriated off their land( even though their land isnt being flooded….for…..Safety concerns…)
There have been some excellent articles/ discussions/ facts on this website about Site C.
http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://commonsensecanadian.ca/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjV1uTq08_WAhUT9mMKHRMMASYQFggVMAA&usg=AOvVaw0udXlxUS6D2hElJHzgBgCw
The Site C legacy to generations of BC Hydro rate payers, BC taxpayers and their grandchildren.
Massive, unnecessary debt…
http://commonsensecanadian.ca/liberal-pals-plundering-bc-hydro-tens-billions/
#2 Let Toronto economy collapse! on 09.30.17 at 5:27 pm
Awww, its sad when you don’t fit into contemporary urban society, isn’t it? That trucker hat is so 2007. Oh wait, you’re not wearing it ironically. XD
25 Dolce Vita on 09.30.17 at 7:54 pm :Last year almost all jobs created were part-time.
… the “platform” and the “gig economy
where the self employed will be bidding against each other for work e.g. ikea (taskfinders) one among the many.
====
those boomers must be eating ingredients from comets and trace amounts of blueberrries
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyGq6cjcc3Q
” competing and contradictory media narratives, a new documentary film called “The Brainwashing of My Dad” explores the toxic effects of right wing media manipulation from a uniquely human perspective.
“‘The Brainwashing of My Dad’ brings together diligent research into the history of the conservative media movement along with personal stories from everyday people,” Smith said. “It shows how damaged a relationship can become after a loved one gets hooked on right wing media.”
https://patrioticmillionaires.org/2016/03/18/patriotic-millionaire-ryan-smith-releases-new-documentary-the-brainwashing-of-my-dad/
====================================
pass throughs who really got the benefit and will continue to
The Trump Tax Reform’s Pass-Through Boondoggle
It’s a great deal for the Donald Trumps and Jerry Joneses of the world.
by Justin Fox
September 28, 2017, 9:18 AM EDT
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-28/the-trump-tax-reform-s-pass-through-boondoggle
https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/s-corporations
#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.01.17 at 10:49 am
*yaaawn* where did you plagiarize that conspiracy theory drivel from? Must be hard to think with that tin foil hat on your balding head.
Hi Ryan, I think you hit it exactly on the head when you said: “Looking at the debt and income statistics one might prematurely conclude that the average Canadian, and our economy, is for the lack of a better term, screwed.”
The rest is all wishful thinking. Canadians will be going on a “diet” alright, sort of like The King went on a forced “diet” after the toilet episode….no more peanut butter and bacon sandwiches for him after that!
Garth I question you letting individuals like this make posts on your fantastic blog. His data is not timely and reads like copy and paste from the uninformed. He is twisting facts to fit his bias and not his bias to fit facts.
Im not saying the cdn econ will impode but there is little reason to be optimistic as the writer suggests, and he offers no data to suggest we should beyond his own cheerful opinion.
GDP for canada was flat last quarter, he didn’t mention the Liberals attack on small business which as you have pointed out is an incentive for professionals to work less not more. he said exports are to increase… oh really? when the President is talking down the the dollar and slashing taxes across the board for US business. Those people are going to pay up for a box of canadian screws or other goods? how does that work? You can’t even be a landlord in ontario without the government actively destroying you as a small business person.
@#89 Dissent
“Conspiracy theories”?
+++++
I think the people attending the “new” Utility Commission reviews going on now in BC ALL OVER THE PROVINCE might disagree……
https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://thetyee.ca/News/2017/09/21/Tough-Decision-Site-C-Whatever-BCUC-Finds/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwj7mfv86M_WAhVB2GMKHX75DIcQFgg_MAk&usg=AFQjCNHr20l57x_23d79TOtaxJjZuVWmDg
But you just keep name calling. Thats what you do best from the comfort of your Toronto condo.
Speaking of which.
How’s are electricity rates in Ontario doing with all the govt intervention?
How’s that trial going with the former Ont Hydro executives that deleted files and emails.
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2017/09/21/mcguinty-staffers-destroyed-records-they-had-a-duty-to-preserve-gas-plant-trial-told.html
Interesting note.
Laura Miller worked for Christy Clark out here until she was sent packing….and guess what….emails were triple deleted here as well’
Oh the coincidence….
https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/laura-miller-christy-clarks-new-campaign-chief-facing-charges/article31892570/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwiMj7Sd7M_WAhVP7mMKHa6_CkEQFgggMAI&usg=AOvVaw1rQdsALwmFF4KUt2JzavO_
Tin foil hat?
Nah, just politicians and their rotten agendas
#89 Dissident on 10.01.17 at 11:17 am
#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.01.17 at 10:49 am
*yaaawn* where did you plagiarize that conspiracy theory drivel from? Must be hard to think with that tin foil hat on your balding head.
************************
Ryan…. the Canadian Trudeau-nomics economy will collapse…..the jobs and GDP numbers are a fraud. Trudeau splashed 100 billion on the balance sheet and the vast majority of jobs created were civil service…..how long can that last before a major credit downgrade pulls the Liberals pants down and exposes their tiny winkles to the world.
Capital fight is well over a trillion since Trudeau took office….add that to the giant sucking hole called Wynne Liberal Ontario. Hundreds of thousands of jobs gone and replaced with new debt….unsustainable. That alone makes this an instant banana republic when Moody’s or any other org refuses to take direction from the globalists EU supporting Trudeau’s anti Trump stance. Talk about House of Cards?
Why did Biden jump across the border the day the stunning defeat of globalism in the US? To assure Trudeau and Butts that it would all be OK? That Obama still held sway…..that a coup would take out Trump within months? Why is Biden and Clinton in Ottawa meeting secretly with Butts and company today. Is it because it’s all gone very wrong and a Trudeaus support is collapsing?
The good news is that our Canadian companies have been beefing up south of the border and will thrive at the same time as Canada convulses. Watch for our stock market to soar when Canada dives into recession in the fourth quarter when capital flight bites into negative growth, govt hiring craters and real estate collapses in double digits with rising rates..
#91 DON on 10.01.17 at 12:51 pm
#89 Dissident on 10.01.17 at 11:17 am
#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.01.17 at 10:49 am
*yaaawn* where did you plagiarize that conspiracy theory drivel from? Must be hard to think with that tin foil hat on your balding head.
************************
Conspiracy theory drivel???
Nice attempt to use the ‘crazy’ conspiracy angle to try and silence validated facts.
Ponzias doesn’t read passed the MSM headlines.
Rayn – commodities.
US is to start (has started) extracting rare minerals from Afghanistan for protection payment…
Russia providing lumber, minerals, LNG, Oil to a larger market. The silk road inching closer. Made in Canada needs to happen. I get the point about the little positives outweighing the negatives…not sure we are their yet. The hang over period can’t be easily avoided.
With multiple GTA rental properties owned since 1990, I can say I did my part to keep the economy moving. With so many capital and current expenses, but cash flow positive, I look back at all the small businesses that benefited from my RE investments.
Some of the negative comments directed towards RE investments are actually funny, especially since the people venting them don’t have skin in the game, such as HHCE guy.
People, invest wisely and always manage your family finances with the knowledge you gain yourselves. Otherwise you fail like HHCE guy probably did and become cynical and risk adverse in RE.
The Moron grilled.
http://www.bnn.ca/we-are-not-entitled-hundreds-of-business-leaders-urge-trudeau-to-reconsider-tax-plan-1.872237
On the Edmonton Terrorist Attack. Statment from the PM
“The Government of Canada and Canadians stand with the people of Edmonton after the terrorist attack on Saturday that sent an Edmonton Police Service officer to hospital and injured a number of innocent people who were out to cheer on their football team and to enjoy an evening in their city. I am deeply concerned and outraged by this tragedy,” he said.
Tragedy? It’s terrorist attack!!!!!
Now this one below scares me. I interpret it as we will not let Islamophobia take hold in our communities any time one of this little Tragedy happens.
T2 is beyond mental.
“”We cannot – and will not – let violent extremism take root in our communities. We know that Canada’s strength comes from our diversity, and we will not be cowed by those who seek to divide us or promote fear. Edmonton is a strong and resilient city, and I am confident that its citizens will support one another to overcome this tragic event.”
Bill M, the minister of fairness.
Dare we hope that it’s diffeent here? Some features seem familiar.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/09/29/the-us-economy-is-failing/
96 RE Investor
You are a moron. Nothing wrong with owning RE. Buying at the top of the biggest housing bubble in Canadian history is bad SHYSTER advice. I hate elementary school dropout SHYSTERS.
#36 Asterix1
97% chance of realtors job being eliminated is to low. It could be 100% eliminated today. Realtors of the future will be call centre operators just like travel agents who may now work at itravel2000.ca call centre.
#101 HHCE
Lol. I knew it. You bought at the top and are suffering buyers remorse…haha. You are the greater fool we all talk about. Learn from your mistake and don’t blame anyone except the fool looking back in the mirror.
Anyways, I love the 1st of the month cause I hog the bank cash machine as I deposit all my rent cheques. Positive cash flow is an awesome enabler of future financial decisions. Hey HHCE, I’ll buy your recent RE purchase. Let me know…lol