It’s just a regular house in a nondescript part of a boring place in the nether reaches of the GTA, Newmarket. But a few months ago, digs here were hot. Like everywhere else in the 905. Money flyin’ all over the place. A blizzard of offers and sales. Full frontal house lust.
Sitting on an 80-foot lot, it sold fast in the third week of March for $1,265,000. You may recall that was when realtors and reporters were reveling in 30% year/year gains each month, exactly a month before Ontario unveiled its anti-bubble crusade.
Here
s the offer to purchase. It was firm. The names have been blanked out to protect the predator and the fool.
So what’s happened in the last six months? Houseageddon, apparently. At least on this street.
Mortgage rates have gone up twice. More to come. Foreign buyer-dudes have been spanked. Rent controls have hit speculators. The CRA has moved into overdrive. There’s talk of an empty-house levy. A new borrowing stress test looms at the banks. And, above all, houses are no longer hot. Sales have crashed, buyers have scampered and a new chill has swept over lenders, plus the appraisers they hire to manage risk.
So the same house was valued a couple of weeks ago after a financing application was made. Here’s the appraiser’s report.
Yep. One point two mill down to $725,000 in little more than 150 days. That’s a 41% haircut. If the buyer put down less than $550,000. he’s snorkling. In any case, the greater fool in March has kissed off half a million.
Is there more to come? Or does this shockingly-quick collapse represent the depths of buyer despair?
Well, count on the financial establishment to tell you everything’s under control, that we’ve passed through a corrective phase and entered a period of balanced normalcy. Nothing to see here, folks. Move along.
National Bank economist Marc Pinsonneault is the latest (joining star eggheads from BMO and the other banks), arguing the ratio of listings compared with sales has moved back into yawn territory (from OMG). With 2.5 months of inventory available, he concludes the market is now in balance which will stabilize prices.
“A few years ago we would say this is a normal ratio. It limits the potential for price correction. In order to exacerbate a price correction, it would have to be much higher than that, to the levels we saw during the recession … but that’s not the case.”
Uh-huh.
Let’s not forget Monsieur P works for a company associated with the most messed-up housing indicator ever invented (even worse that the realtor Frankenumber), the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index. Just last week it registered a 23% year/year increase in Toronto prices when values had actually declined 20% in a hundred days and a detached home was worth 1.2% less than twelve months earlier. You have to work very, very hard to be this wrong. Impressive.
But wait, Marc has a chart…
Well, back to local broker Alex Prikhodko who offers this on-the-ground assessment: “I think it’s safe to say, as we expected, that ’market will rebound in September’ was nothing more than wishful thinking based on absolutely nothing.” Alex crunched the sales numbers for the first 12 days of the month and extrapolated them over the next couple of weeks, using historic trends.
In the table below you can see actual sales by municipality, the estimated monthly total and (for comparison) the deals registered for August. Following that is the % change from August to this month, then the annual change stat. This looks more like a market in free fall than one which is finding its inner peace. No?
“I wonder how the real estate board is going to spin this one,” he says. “Comparing this September with September last year, all municipalities will have SIGNIFICANT declines.”
Yes, and still to come is (probably) yet another interest rate increase within the next six months (or sooner), the OSFI universal Cone of Shame stress test, effectively raising rates by a further 2%, plus the Trudeau-Moreau small business-slaying legislation. The latter will impact about two million households, 70% of which earn less than $200,000.
Oh boy.
190 comments ↓
if that Happy House Crash Everyone guy shows up, please say something new today. Your previous posts say the same shit over and over again… We’ve had enough of you already…
Guess Who Killed RE Market?
Foreigners! Of course. Market up? Blame the Chinese.Market down? Blame the Chinese.
So foreign buyers transactions went down from 4.7% to 3.2%, says CBC.
See? Communist Bradcasting Corporation (CBC) does not explicitedly state that, but it’s implied.
HuffPost, TorStar, Globe et al are repating this news, as only modify the verbiahe somewhat.
And this blogs keeps repeating ad nauseam that Chinese dudes had nothing to do with the bubble.
Know what? Forget this idiotic, pathetic blog. Just tune in to CBC.
Now and forever.
Amen.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ontario-foreign-buyers-drop-1.4289880
Go Vaughn!
Garth you are the best at exposing the RE crash. Garth is alot smarter then you evil shysters. Garth 100- Shysters 0
Happy Housing Crash Everyone Everyone! :-)
#1 HateThatHappyHouseCrash
Who is “We”?
Hey Adrejewski
Not “FURST” today. Sorry.
Some hater is collecting my points today.
AUGUST: DEMAND FOR DETACHED HOMES CONTINUES TO DRY UP ACROSS GREATER VICTORIA
In August, detached sales were:
* 18% lower than in August 2016. Sales have been lower year-over-year every month in 2017.
* Lower than in the same month in 2015 for the fifth month in a row. ( -11%)
* Lower than Victoria’s 5-year average (even with 2013’s unbelievably weak sales total), using a fair comparison.
* Lower than in the same month in 2007 for the fifth month in a row (2007 was an average year for sales in Victoria using a fair comparison). (-15%)
* In July, detached sales were 21% lower than an average year for Victoria (2007).
(source: Victoria’s R/E board)
STRONGER DEMAND FOR DETACHED HOMES IN 2016 WAS PAINTED AS PERMANENT BY THE LOCAL R/E INDUSTRY
In 2016, Victoria realtors (and the local media) fabricated lies to hide the truth about the real reason for the sudden increase in demand for detached homes: highly leveraged and reckless speculation (mostly by locals).
If the local media had admitted the truth – that speculation was the real reason behind the stronger demand – it would have been equivalent to issuing a warning to potential buyers. That warning: speculative frenzies are always temporary and are always followed by major price corrections.
PERMANENT AND SAFE VS TEMPORARY AND DANGEROUS
Temporary and dangerous was not the way the media and realtors wanted to paint the sudden increase in demand. That wouldn’t have been good for sales, commissions and their personal real estate investments. They needed to convince the herd that the increase in demand was permanent and safe.
SOLUTION: FABRICATION
The most popular explanation (fabricated by local realtors and presented as fact to the herd by the local media): Wealthy buyers from Asia had “suddenly discovered Victoria” and were “driving the market”. Realtors and the media claimed that the tap for these buyers had been turned on and would never be turned off. If local potential buyers didn’t buy right now they would “miss out” because wealthy buyers from Asia would swoop in with suitcases full of cash to buy that house. Victoria had changed forever and demand would never fall from 2016 levels.
Wrote the realtors at Victoria’s R/E board: “Demand Likely To Continue In 2017”. – January 3, 2017
(continued)
Those 2 photos showing how much the house has declined in value should adorn every bus shelter and subway stop in Toronto until everyone has a chance to see it. Someone should pony-up the dough and start a campaign to make the posters and get them up.
HA! That’s what you get for spending $1.265 million to live in boring @$$ Newmarket. Go pout at Upper Canada Mall or something.
Newmarket m/m should be green, not red.
THEN 2017 ARRIVED
It’s funny that sales began to show huge year-over-year drops the exact month the local board made its January 3rd prediction about continued strong demand.
Detached sales in 2017 compared to the same month in 2016 (year-over-year):
January: – 18%
February: – 25%
March: – 25%
April: – 43%
May: – 27%
June: – 19%
July: – 20%
August: – 18%
2017’s sales numbers proved beyond doubt that no new pool of buyers in Victoria, foreign or local, imaginary or real, had caused demand to be permanently upped to 2016 levels.
And now Victoria realtors are predicting that prices will rise year after year and that there will be no price correction. Toronto realtors had maintained the same claim for prices in that city… until prices began to fall after April. Now it’s all-out panic for sellers in the GTA.
IT WAS ALWAYS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
As Garth has noted, detached house prices in Victoria have likely already peaked and are on the way down. It looks like the summer of 2017 will go down as the inflection point for prices after a 17 year debt-fueled housing bubble price run-up which was brought about by lax lending standards, record-low rates, liar loans, poor enforcement of mortgage rules, high levels of speculation, etc.
And anybody who knows anything about real estate knows that Mr. Market warns buyers and sellers (with falling sales) that it’s only a matter of time before prices begin to fall. In other words, you were warned, Victoria.
AN EPIC BUBBLE
Victoria’s massive housing bubble will deflate and it won’t be an orderly soft landing, devoid of emotion and panic.
House prices in Victoria have more than tripled since 2000, making gains in incomes over the same period look tiny. Few housing bubbles in the history of the world have been as fat, and no housing bubble in history has gone down with a (fairy tale) soft landing.
CHANGES
And don’t forget about the coming rate hikes and the provincial and federal mortgage rule changes. These things won’t exactly stimulate the local housing market.
It looks like the boom years of Victoria’s housing bubble boom-bust cycle officially ended in the summer of 2017.
Up next for Victoria: The bust years.
#1 HateThatHappyHouseCrash on 09.14.17 at 6:43 pm
if that Happy House Crash Everyone guy shows up, please say something new today. Your previous posts say the same shit over and over again… We’ve had enough of you already…
————
You mean like the realtors and homemoaners and house lustful showing up day after day, year after year, speaking about the impossibility of a price correction or interest rate hikes because of X rationale and effectively saying the same thing?
Nah, we like him….he stays
STOP THIS WAR
The federal government should stop its “War On First-Time Home Buyers” says Ontario Real Estate Association led by Tim Hudak.
Remember Hudak?
Apparently these actions: OFSI stress test, rising interest rates etc are all biting into affordability.
Happy Housing Crash Eeveryone Guy, any comments/insights on this?
Regards
Poof. There go Crapto Currencies.
Sure glad I’m paid with that pesky fiat dollar.
https://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=BTCUSD
P.s. if anyone needs rid of fiat I’ll take it off your hands.
Inquire within.
This month’s superstar is XEG.TO
Makes you wonder how many more of these deals are floating around out there…
“…..I wonder how the real estate board is going to spin this one,” he says….. “
_____________________________
They could always seek advice from the master serial liar himself, the President of the Alternative Facts of America.
early xmas
Jingle bells, Jingle bells, Jingle all the way
Oh what fun it is to ride in a one greaterfool open sleigh
#1 HateThatHappyHouseCrash on 09.14.17 at 6:43 pm
are you realtor?
is the repoman coming for you?
——————————————————————
anyway to invest in repo business?
And Vancouver is still ridiculously expensive….
NORTH KOREA FIRES BALLISTIC MISSILE!!
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/09/14/north-korea-launches-missile-toward-japan/668305001/
Japan tells citizens to seek immediate shelter.
Happening right NOW!
Beware the IDES OF SEPTEMBER!!!!!!!
Are YOU prepared?
Does anybody have a clue when we will see a real drop in prices in Victoria? We are waiting until spring before looking seriously in the housing market. I’ve started seeing houses sit priced around a million + but anything around 650-850 that is decent quality is still selling fast. I would love to know if these places are selling over asking. My fear is inventory will never increase in this city and that may cause a delay in prices ever dropping significantly.
…”And while you may assume such biases are a trait of the less intelligent, the opposite is true. Scientists discovered that those with stronger quantitative abilities are more likely to twist data at will. When volunteers in that study were given data about the effectiveness of gun control laws that did not support their views, they used their math skills not to draw more accurate conclusions, but to find fault with the numbers they were given.”
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/13/opinions/why-dont-facts-matter-sharot-opinion/index.html
#161 CJBob on 09.14.17 at 1:57 pm
Seeings how you asked nicely, I’ll respond nicely. We could have save a lot of time if you’d asked nicely in the first place. And in fact I’ve already answered your question once but I’ll break it down for you a bit more.
Your question:
“So to clarify, if you aren’t using the loophole that is being closed then there is absolutely no impact on your business. None at all.”
As humans have a finite lifespan, they have periods of working hard and investing their time/energy/love, you name it, in to something, with the hopes that it will grow. And then they wish to reap what we sow. So just because we have not used the legal tax structures available to us yet, because we (my wife and I) keep re-investing in to the company to hire and do R&D, does not mean we would not want to some day. Our eagerness to hire and grow in Canada is directly proportional to our confidence in getting money out of this company some day. But the Liberals have targeted people like us as ‘not paying our fair share’. So we have to adjust and realize we will not be able to get money out of this company some day, and in fact it will only get worse, now that we see the reaction of the mob, of people like you, that are spoiling to attack people like me. Not rich people, mind you, just small business owners creating jobs in Canada.
Now, some people suggest that RRSP accounts and TFSAs are enough. Well my wife worked for our company for years without making much pay at all (to grow the business, pay staff, etc.), so has very little RRSP room to use. She recently had just 5 weeks of maternity leave, unpaid. She had to come back because the person she transferred her duties to quit, just weeks later, to take on another job somewhere else that was a better offer for them. So she came back to hear very demanding job after five weeks. Unless you’re a woman whose had a baby don’t pretend you can know what that’s like.
Does this jibe with your hero T2’s plan for empowering women?
She now is suffering from exhaustion from running a business with me and only having 5 weeks of unpaid maternity leave. So she will take a leave of absence, unpaid. You see, if we pay her for her leave of absence, we have to fire one of our employees. Which we don’t want to do. But we can’t give them raises either. And in case you don’t know, small business owners we can’t claim EI, which we pay in to for the other 17 people at the company.
“And yet you are telling your employees they won’t be getting a raise because of the changes and you are up in arms because they hurt your feelings?”
Not because of hurt feelings, because we need the money we would otherwise give to them, because people like you, and the Liberals, think that because we have a business and hope to retire with enough money to support our own retirement, we have way too much money and aren’t doing our fair share. But civil servants are handed a defined benefit pension plan and job security and benefits and… but I digress from your illuminating questions.
“How are you worse off if this change goes through than you were before?”
I think I’ve addressed this above. I’ve reinvested in to this company for 10 years, but now the money that is there is being claimed by the government. And the key here is not just a particular change to a tax policy, but the positioning and rhetoric of the Liberals. Why would I invest further in this business, in this country, when you and they want to attack us? I love this country but it’s becoming socialist fast.
Again, if they introduced reasoned policies to catch tax cheats, I wouldn’t be losing confidence in this country. If they introduced these one at a time, and had a reasonable, meaningful and lengthy discussions/reviews, I would have an open mind. But when they wave a read flag of ‘attack tax cheats’ and sheep like you get whipped in a frenzy to go after people like me, I and other small business owners really have to think about where else we should apply our time and talents.
“Just a guess but I don’t think you are about to become the next Warren Buffet either way.”
I agree, not my goal, hope you’re proud of being petty.
No worries, you can always pick up this Fake Versailles outhouse in Vaughan for only $14,888,000 (sorry, REALTURD®’s, the days of ‘888’ foreign bait are long behind you).
Someone should have told the owners that gold-plated toilet handles don’t do well in a methane environment:
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18401645/88-ROCMARY-PL-Vaughan-Ontario-L4L8Z1-Kleinburg
Burn baby burn!
Didn’t I read on here GTA had like 10000 realtors? Thats a lot of audi leases that wont get paid. Hopefully they can just tap into their HELOCs..it only goes up after all.
About 44,000. — Garth
200 Richard Ave. in Newmarket (pretty sure)
Brutally joyful schadenfreude.
Half of working Canadians make less than $30,000 per year. That affects, you guessed it, half of working Canadians.
Is that chart with the estimated numbers for Sept ’17 as it appears? The first week in September is notoriously quiet, especially compared to the later half of the month. Estimating like that would give misleading numbers. Maybe I’m wrong about when the registration takes place?
Ok, so maybe prices dropped a bit. But houses can’t drop double digit in one day, stocks sure can. And you can’t live in shares or bonds.
Looks like that deal did to not close.
I think the buyer walked.
Ha-ha!
On a serious note, I’ve noticed ‘gentrification’ along the Victoria Village/Don Valley area (the infamous area where you find at least a dozen ‘massage spas’ in various strip malls).
I’ve seen City of Toronto notices regarding the demolition of various strip malls along Vic Park Ave to construct townhomes.
At Lawrence Ave East and Birchmount Avenue, Phase Two of a luxury 16 storey condo is under completion.
Hundreds of low-income Nelsons on social assistance were displaced from Regent Park and Cabbagetown to construct 40-storey condos for Yuppies.
It’s a relief for us Nelsons to finally see those Yuppies leaving our hoods and leaving us alone. I hate it when a Yuppie moves in and all of a sudden, Ralph’s cop father stop and frisks us because of complaints of loitering from a Yuppie.
Let the real estate collapse to its fair value in Ontario so that the working class will not become homeless, and our doctor fees are lower because they do not have to pay Yuppie Starbucks rent prices because it is “trendy”.
It’s God’s message of saying that supporting gentrification which is economic colonization leads to a real estate collapse.
Easy enough to find the predator using the lot and plan number in Newmarket. Their sins not confidential or protected as stated.
http://business.financialpost.com/business-insider/deutsche-bank-reveals-7-reasons-why-canada-is-in-serious-trouble-starting-with-a-63-overvalued-housing-market
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/the-market/house-of-cards-deciphering-canadas-housing-market-numbers/article24152245/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&
insurance wrappers
http://www.reuters.com/article/swisslife-justice/update-1-swiss-life-speaks-to-doj-about-possible-tax-evasion-by-u-s-clients-idUSL5N1LV0NV
Donald Trump says the US needs to reduce corporate tax to 15% to match China. Their rate is actually 25%
(14 Sep 2017)
Holy mother of god!!! Do you have $530,000 lying around to throw in the garbage? I sure as hell don’t! Give me a moment. My jaw unhinged when I saw that price difference. Thank you, thank you, thank you inside voice when you told me to sell late last year.
I am so very, very, very happy to have my money in a balanced ETF portfolio. 100% of my assets in a balanced portfolio paying lovely wonderful dividends and rebalanced annually or as required. This year has not been the greatest year for my investments as my year to date return is 4.30% all in but it sure beats the return on that Newmarket property of -42%. How do you rebalance that? Bankruptcy? That’s just Ghastly.
I’ll just add. From a different perspective, it may not be -42% loss but 100% loss of downpayment and then some. Painful!
Bartering becomes more prevelant – under the table deals – cash deals – black market deals – theft rises – funky accounting increases –
RATM
Speaking of Toronto.
When does this glacial, pedantic, long overdue decision actually come down by the gnomes in their Ivory tower. No wonder the courts are clogged………….8 friggin years to give us what the US has had for over a decade. By “Had” I mean (real time data at the click of a mouse, pricing history, crime rates, previous selling, price trends, all and much more than the childish Realtor.ca crap that we are spoon fed by scumbag shysters who want to keep us in the dark.
This blog isn’t pathetic but something is
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/competition-bureau-treb-head-back-to-court-over-online-data-dispute/article33201790/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&
If the market has corrected to such a degree, shouldn’t this be looked upon as a positive for the future of housing?
I mean, when you look at the other important factors that play into housing….other sectors are picking up (oil hit $50 again, rocks looking shinier), government infrastructure spending is in full swing and there’s finally talk of pulling back on the stimulus, employment is the best it’s ever been….these are all very supportive of housing. Interest rates going up definitely puts a damper on price gains, and the new rules if put in place as is will also work against housing however, I think it’s net positive. The recent report on the market looking at 5 years of 1% gains? Would this be the same prognosticators that predicted the pullback (not!)? I’m very happy that they market has pulled back and given up the froth. Losing 40%, most of which was gained only in the last year, doesn’t spell disaster except for those that purchased in the final bubble push. Most other buyers are fine – fully employed if you trust the stats, and already mortgaged (and paying principal every month). Play that forward for the next 5 years and most of these mortgages have paid down 10% of their principal, more if they locked in below 3%. That will give them a cushion when re-upping for another 5 yrs at an expected higher rate. All IMO of course.
Not sure why your comparing realtor Frankenumber and Teranet-National Bank When you know the latter is a reflection of closed sales contracted as long as 4 months ago. There is no coralation. November/December will begin to show a fall in values by Teranet.
And that will be as useless as the last numbers. — Garth
#19 Jim on 09.14.17 at 7:06 pm
And Vancouver is still ridiculously expensive….
——————-
Who cares, it’s Vancouver. Let it rot in money laundering hell. Let it take in the tacky tasteless nouveaux riche. Rich people with any class will still choose New York, Paris, London, Milan.
In Van on a course with Telus on Kingston ave and there is 9 houses for sale by the same Realtor within 2 blocks
The Slow-Motion Financial Suicide of the Roman Empire (and America and Canada eh?)
Tiberius passed Rome’s first subsidized food program, which provided discounted grain to many citizens.
By the third century AD, the food program had been amended multiple times. Discounted grain was replaced with entirely free grain, and at its peak, a third of Rome took advantage of the program.
Other foodstuffs, including olive oil, pork, and salt, were regularly incorporated into the dole. The program ballooned until it was the second-largest expenditure in the imperial budget. like many government programs, it became perpetual assistance for a permanent constituency who felt entitled to its benefits.
By 301 AD, Emperor Diocletian issued the famous Edict of Maximum Prices. Rome had become a totalitarian state that blamed many of its economic woes on supposed greedy profiteers (small business owners).
https://fee.org/articles/the-slow-motion-financial-suicide-of-the-roman-empire/
It is different here.
We don’t do no measly 30% corrections. We go all the way to the top and then all the way to the bottom.
Canadians love their politics lukewarm and their real estate radioactive.
#23 Lead Paint on 09.14.17 at 7:09 pm
[drops mic]
—
(applause)
There seems to be an eerie silence as to what’s going on in the Vancouver/LowermainLand real estate market?
#23 Lead Paint
Please save your Whingefest for the appropriate thread.
Y/Y percentages.
*jaw drops*
Prayer is in order, folks. No shame in it. After all, all religions are narratives of collapse, might as well get a head start.
For # 1 . Happy Housing Crash Everyone! keep it going !!! people are so damn stupid that they need to be reminded of their stupidity. You know what they say about repitition !!
“You are richer then you think”
More like
“You are dumber then you think”
#140 Reality 1 on 09.14.17 at 11:09 am
to # 128 Lead Paint
to # 129 MF
Thank you very muchfor your answers.
Perhaps others could add their own reasoning / rationale for voting Liberal if they have the courage to comment as you two have.
This is not a trick question – I think it will help us all to understand how we got here / the government that we did.
Anybody else ?
***********************************
Small business owner, voted Lib because T2 said he would change the first past the post voting system, and I think a more representative system would be better for everyone.
Not that it mattered since the guy in my riding won in a landslide, but having the only reason you vote for someone get shelved kinda makes you wonder what the point in voting at all is.
Garth, can you comment on Vancouver in your next post?
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/02/01/trudeau-drops-pledge-to-reform-canadas-electoral-system-in-his-first-term.html
missed the link
New book by Ray Dalio out next Tuesday, dogs!! ‘Principles’ is the title. This is going to be epic. Buying it when Indigo opens at 10am!!
Not much happening on the detached front in my Pink Folder ,but this condo sold 4 days ago and so I will put it up and hopefully a realtor will tell us how much it went for.
Maybe somewhere between buy and ask…
M43BC
2706 1077 W Cordova Street, Vancouver paid 1.25
May 10:$1,388,000
Aug 18: $1,325,000
Change: – 63000.00 -5%
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1077-w-cordova-street/2706
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDAwWlI5Rg==
Was just contemplating this Yellen term renewal thing.
I predict in Feb 18 there will be someone new, a Republican. Not a Democrat who starts cranking up rates the second Trump wins.
Soooo…I’m thinking 2018 may be dovish for the US Fed.
Which brings up the question of the Plozzer and what he might do. Two more raises this year for sure, then…??
Murky!!
#29
Not double digits in a day but only $3333.33 everyday for the last 150 days now that’s bragging rights around the water cooler!
#35 stone
It is not $530,000,look at how much he would have to make before taxes to clear that amount and also by the time that person is done paying that amount out they will have paid around $800,000+ after interest payments are added in over 25-30yrs.
I’ve been biting my tongue for a while, but some one has to point out the obvious….
Comparing the purchase price on a home, to any of the following figures, means absolutely nothing:
1) Buy price VS Tax assessment.
2) Buy price VS Listing price.
3) Buy price VS Past listing price.
4) Buy price VS Listing price reduction.
5) Buy price VS Appraisal value.
6) Buy price VS Pure speculation.
The ONLY figures that would actually show this 20 to 41% reduction, in S.D. home values in T.O. is:
7) Buy price VS Completed sale price. Period.
This, will show when a buyer, actually LOSES $’s.
With a 20% + correction in SDH, already having occurred, there must be 100’s (1000’s ?) of samples, displaying this real, significant loss of wealth in T.O.?
So come on, lets see some documented evidence supporting this claimed correction. Don’t bother supplying the Average Mix BS that shows higher priced homes, are not selling at the same volume, as in the past and does not prove a loss in home values.
We need blood, show us the carnage, if you can…
If the housing correction stays “corrected” then government revenues will drop. Turdo will need to make up the difference somehow. So cover your assets folks, and stash your cash cuz He will come for it. Sincerely, Ben Dover.
Garth always had a solution for every real estate or equity market eventuality. Funny he is drawing a big blank on the T2/MoreNo attack on business. Guess somethings cant be defended against no matter how balanced you are.
And if business owners are going to be discouraged and taxed hard on equity holdings inside an LLC, better watch for the drag on the TSX. They wont let their money be attacked like that.
Sue your mortgage broker… Why would any mortgage agent/broker wait several months to request an appraisal..
I peddle mortgages part-time, only for friends and family, and appraisals are ordered immediately after an offer is firm and a mortgage approval is received.
Makes no sense!!!
A HELOC request would trigger an appraisal. — Garth
Okay I’ll say it…..
Snoop Dog !!!
….and I ain’t into rap.
#1
Don’t be dissing Happy Housing!!!
Yes, he’s written the same message at least 500x over which must be a record even for OCD. But he’s part of the bear pack so he’s always good in my books.
Happy Housing Crash Everyone!!!
M48ON
Keep going Happy Crash Guy….love your point of view
We all know that the Real Estate Cartel has no conscience…only to make money….Mostly the 5% fee even as prices hit the insane levels….and on the house appliances as well.
No boxing day or any day sales from the Cartel.
The BS from the Cartel….similar to the BS lies from Trump…day after day…no draining the Swamp in the USA.
Now rich Washington staffers not only getting paid by the tax payer but using Government planes and aircraft carrier for Weddings and honeymoons….very Nice Trump…you go Golden Boy… bankrupt the Government like you did some of your companies…then it was private investors $ ….now its taxpayers $….
#55 Flop
I feel like your zone is going to be SUPER interesting for the next three months!
The bear pack has emerged from the deep dark depths of the BC woods! Who am I kidding, I have only been there twice. But it will be great to hear your Pink file updates!
M48ON
WOW -42%! I’d just quit life and start wearing sweat pants all the time! Forget work there is no crawling back from that loss for the average Joe!
#50 SoggyShorts on 09.14.17 at 8:18 pm
Small business owner, voted Lib because T2 said he would change the first past the post voting system, and I think a more representative system would be better for everyone.
Not that it mattered since the guy in my riding won in a landslide, but having the only reason you vote for someone get shelved kinda makes you wonder what the point in voting at all is.
—————————————
Soldiers enlist and die for this democracy! But where is it? Davos and Jackson Hole, Baby!
Easy there garthosaurus.
Stop taking those negativity pills.
I think you should try some hot yoga for a few weeks.
Will help your mind and help bring some positiveNess your way. The universe will give you some aewsome energy.
Signed
Al from st catahrines who enjoys both real estate and juicy financial portfolios but wants less pessimism from deadwood garthosaurus.
In fairness to Teranet, their latest press release was titled: “[…] DECLINE IN TORONTO IN AUGUST”. They also included discussion further details about price declines there. This was NOT a “prices are going up” type of press release.
There is no point attacking them for being a lagging indicator. That’s like shooting the messenger.
Statistics are only credible if the methodology to apply them remains consistent over the comparison period. If Teranet suddenly changed their approach today, I would be frankly upset with them. How can you trust an organization if it changes its methods at a whim?
I don’t think Teranet has ever pretended to be a leading indicator. Its not like MLS data, and never said it was.
Ergo, useless. — Garth
I guess the cities mill rates will have to go up.
Re: #13 Royal City Dweller on 09.14.17 at 6:50 pm
In Vancouver many people are living in their car thanks to Millennials who paid too much for real estate. Ontario would be following down the same road if something isn’t done. The Millennials are beyond any and all hope so something has to be done for their and the taxpayers good.
*This post was inspired by screwed millennial and n1tro the other night. You guys both make some great points in some spots. However, I don’t think we need to make each other wrong in order to validate our own beliefs and selves. I think its more productive to listen to each other and gleam whatever we can from it. Then we can have more well rounded views as our awareness increases…
Rich vs. Poor. Boomer vs Millennial. Liberal vs. Conservative. Man vs. Woman. Canada vs. USA…
To preface, I am no expert. I could be wrong about a lot of things I say and assumptions I make. This is just my opinion based on my life experiences, thoughts, exploration and analysis. I am completely open to debate any of this, in fact my views change quite frequently. I look for forward to it…so let’s starts
I believe our predicaments we face are much bigger than any of the above. These are symptoms. Donald Trump as POTUS is a symptom. Nazi’s + ANTIFA are a symptom. Bubbles are a symptom. Climate change is a symptom…..because EVERYTHING is connected.
Humans are very adaptable. Frog in a pot analogy. We can put up with a lot of small incremental negative change over time but at the heart of it, we all have a sense of fairness and equality. I believe what we have now is the eradication of the middle class, causing an astonishing wealth gap. The world’s eight richest people have the same wealth as the poorest 50%. This has an effect on ALL of us and reverberates EVERYWHERE.
We humans dislike pain, don’t do well with a sense of loss and sometimes won’t even acknowledge emotions. The first stage of grief and loss is denial and isolation. Look at yourself, look around you. How many people are indulging in blaming, minimizing or justifying their current situation in life …or the bad decisions they make? How many people suffer from addictions? Booze, drugs, shopping, sex or food. Something isn’t right and I think we all feel it. How many of you are actually happy? What is your definition of happiness? Do you feel like you’re living a double life? The life you live because you think you have to vs the one you dream about. What holds us back? Are they excuses grounded in fear?
The model we were all taught isn’t giving us what we thought we would get. Through my eyes, I see a lot of failing systems. Educational, Political, Health, Economical, Social and Ecological systems are all in disarray.
Let’s extrapolate to what we talk about on this blog:
If you put me into a Boomer’s shoes, I probably would have done the same thing (if I’m honest). Boomers reacted to their environment. We are selfish at the core and it’s a survival mechanism. We usually reach for the low hanging fruit. Most (if not all) will compromise their morals and values to meet their needs in the present if the situation is desperate enough (in our own heads). Our decisions are based off incentives. The Government has been incentivizing us to borrow tons of money and has been rewarding bad behaviour (massive debt, over-consuming etc.) Of course we are going to want to take loans out for dirt cheap. Rates have been supressed for years and assets have been going straight up for essentially a few decades with only tiny dips. Were completely conditioned to just buy the dip.
What a lot of people are doing today (boomers, Gen-x, whatever) when they pile on the debt, is taking whatever they can get right NOW with no regards for the future or consequences for their actions. Seems quite similar to what the Boomers did. Both are mortgaging/ed the future.
Home ownership levels of 75%, people jumping into stock markets they know nothing about and consequently taking on riskier and riskier risk profiles. People don’t want to do these things, but they feel like they HAVE to. Part of the problem is people think they need everything and anything someone else has (like their parents got? instagram friends have? etc) and they need it right now but again just a symptom.
Make me poor and I’m going to take whatever I can get. Its just human nature.
In the same context, I’m not special bc I’m rich/good looking/x special talent. I am where I am bc of where life has taken me. Genetics and even more the way I was raised. I’m not better than anyone else. We get what we tolerate in this life and I happen to have very high standards. Why??? I had a Father who never said I did anything well. A perfectionist himself. Closed off emotionally, at least in expressing positive emotions. He got angry plenty though. lol
Shockingly I’m just as hard and critical on myself and have always felt the need to over-achieve and prove myself, in hopes of him one day saying “good job son”.. and ultimately so I can consider myself “enough”, with the goal of being unconditionally loved one day.
Although some people are making it extremely tougher on us all, it is not in your best interest to blame and figure out every single way people are F’ING us. Use that time to better yourself. Perhaps look inside. Look at the decisions you’ve made in life and where they took you. Change starts from the individual and from the bottom, it is not top-down. A resilient person creates a resilient family, family creates community, community creates province to country to finally a resilient world.
We project power onto these people. Vote with your dollars and decisions in YOUR life. We get what we tolerate. Stand up for what you believe in.
When you blame someone else for your current conditions, you give away all your power to change and instead become a helpless victim.
When you identify with a particular group, it becomes a me vs you thing. It’s very competitive. You will do things at the detriment of everyone else (even kill in the extreme) to advance you and your current group’s position. It creates division. We need to come together to find solutions, not be fractured apart. We are ALL in this together.
If you must blame something, blame growth. Our current model, and the model of most economists relies on constant growth. How is constant growth possible on a finite planet? That doesn’t seem sustainable. We have enough problems currently with this population and these resources and this level of consciousness. Economic growth is not the solution. Status quo clearly isn’t working. We need EACHOTHER and we need to work together to make better systems…
Change happens in one of two ways. We make a conscious voluntary decision (extremely unlikely) or is sparked through massive pain while kicking and screaming. Please be kind to each other and think about what to build in the wake <3
“Not sure why your comparing realtor Frankenumber and Teranet-National Bank When you know the latter is a reflection of closed sales contracted as long as 4 months ago”
Ummm, if you know anything about the Teranet index methodology, you’d understand that it lags literally years behind reality due to its methodology of ascribing price changes that took place in the past to current transactions.
And if business owners are going to be discouraged and taxed hard on equity holdings inside an LLC, better watch for the drag on the TSX. They wont let their money be attacked like that.
I think the TSX would actually do better for 2 reasons.
1) Tax avoidance might require professionals to return to leveraged strategies that have fallen out of favour over the past decade or two in order to avoid tax. The TSX’s very low valuation and the wide gap between TSX index earnings yields and that of the cost of financing makes such an attractive proposition.
2) The tax gap between small business and large business will be narrowed, favouring large business. Small business still is tax advantaged over large business, but with the closing of the loopholes, the gap will be narrowed.
That Newmarket price drop… I can’t believe how bad it has gotten. To think my wife and I almost purchased a condo there for just north of 500,000 in July and walked because of the condo status certificate review!
Did we ever dodge a bullet…
@2 Royal City Dweller
You hit the hammer on the head of that nail. I actually found the avoidance of the truth of the situation on this blog quite entertaining. It only takes one bidder to destroy an auction, and so it follows that even a very small minority of bidders can destroy an entire market. But little can be done now. The damage is done despite the silly hopes promoted on this forum.
Like the Late Great Johnny Carson – signing off folks
“And, above all, houses are no longer hot. Sales have crashed, buyers have scampered and a new chill has swept over lenders, plus the appraisers they hire to manage risk.”
As luck would have it our landlord contacted us this week and wanted to schedule an appraisal on the house we’ve been renting for the last few years. He didn’t elaborate other than to mention it had to do with “refinancing” and that an appraiser had to visit our home in person.
This will not end well (for the landlord).
Re: #14 TurnerNation on 09.14.17 at 6:52 pm
Good call on Bitcoin a few business days ago.
#59 Blacksheep
They never will but great post! It should be law!
#1 HateThatHappyHouseCrash on 09.14.17 at 6:43 pm
if that Happy House Crash Everyone guy shows up, please say something new today. Your previous posts say the same shit over and over again… We’ve had enough of you already…
********************
Them there are fighting words. Happy Stays!
#23 Lead paint
Very well said
“#17 knock knock, whose there? your honest realtor. ”
Dude, ‘There’ is not something you can possess.
Real Estate is pooched in Canada.
Invest in Rehab business. Im opening one up shortly. I’ll be the first client. Have the best councler at the helm. No one in Canada even comes close to his cure or death prolong rate.
Industry average 12% his 55% , still loses a client a month to ods.
With people stretched to the nines. Expect a drinking and pain killer addiction to sky rocket
#27 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 09.14.17 at 7:17 pm
“Half of working Canadians make less than $30,000 per year. That affects, you guessed it, half of working Canadians.”
That includes students and part-timers who don’t need to work full time. Like I said, use household income to be more accurate.
“41% haircut”
5% is a haircut
41% is losing hair due to radiation sickness. Very different from “haircut”.
Baldness…spilling guts…radiation fever…bleeding…death.
You’ve got the msg.
Happening in 4-5 months… it’s a neutron bomb. In case you didn’t know.. shaves hair…spares the fever.
:)
..a graphic description of “haircut” used juxtaposed to 41%. “understatement” does not describe the enormity of your statement
:)
…like in “banks rolling over”…Poloz buying bank shares and bonds.. and T2 giggling with a rainbow flag. U get the picture
Canada’s Hunt for Taxes – Trudeau’s Destruction of the Canadian Economy
http://investmentwatchblog.com/canadas-hunt-for-taxes-trudeaus-destruction-of-the-canadian-economy/
#23 Lead Paint on 09.14.17 at 7:09 pm
I and other small business owners really have to think about where else we should apply our time and talents.
*****
Funny how your story is never mentioned by Justin and Bill on their current ‘fairness for re-election’ promotional tour.
Thanks Lead Paint, and best of luck.
Meanwhile in Barrie Ontario:
The resale market has stalled crickets at open house days
most sellers are stubborn and dreaming of rewards now and forever passed. a few astute sellers are taking big haircuts to get the sale done.
a significant increase in defaulted deals had to hire a assistant to help with the work load.
recent deals seem to be having problems with the financing required to close, as evidenced the now current value is not even close to the amount that greater fools contracted for in there posa. going to be a busy year on the legal side im thinking.
#42 arfmoocat on 09.14.17 at 7:58 pm
“In Van on a course with Telus on Kingston ave and there is 9 houses for sale by the same Realtor within 2 blocks”
If they are side by side, it’s a land assembly to sell to a developer.
Something is wrong with the Newmarket number in that chart. Should be green 42 or so, not red 42 right?
#1 HateThatHappyHouseCrash
LMFAO. That’s rich coming from a (most likely a mad shyster) who repeats lies over and over. Even if you are not a dirty shyster how am I different then the RE shyster board who tell their minions of shysters to repeat lies over and over? Besides it seems the blog dogs dont mind. I will stay here and because you have me fired up I will write a few emails to competition bureau , https://www.ourcommons.ca/Parliamentarians/en/members/Justin-Trudeau(58733) and https://correspondence.premier.gov.on.ca/EN/feedback/default.aspx . My topic is anti-competitive’ acts by TREB and government oversight and regulations on realtors.
HAPPY Housing Crash Everyone ! :-)
Realestate still out of control in Vancouver and rentals are just as crazy. I have one friend who just bought a house with a family member in Langley for a million and another friend who bought a condo in the west end just shy of a million. I don’t see it really dropping much here ever anymore.
#85 M on 09.14.17 at 10:07 pm
I’m always a sucker for optimistic comments. :)
After seeing the rate of decline (and all that’s blowing up around the globe), I personally imagined it as a brick wall, full frontal, at 200mph, around October.
#83 Smoking man
T2 and crew have it covered; legal weed for all lol.
invest in munchie producers!
#59 Blacksheep on 09.14.17 at 8:38 pm
There are a lot of examples you can find for homes selling less than they did at the peak. Follow ktmoney on twitter. Some examples of houses that apparently resold after failing to close:
88 Longwater Chse, Markham – Sold for 1.85m in Feb and 1.5 in Aug
11 Bronte Rd. Markham – 2.8m in March and then 2.3m in Sept
30 Goodwood Dr. Markham – 866 in March and 690k in Aug
#83 Smoking Man on 09.14.17 at 10:01 pm
Real Estate is pooched in Canada.
Invest in Rehab business. Im opening one up shortly. I’ll be the first client. Have the best councler at the helm. No one in Canada even comes close to his cure or death prolong rate.
Industry average 12% his 55% , still loses a client a month to ods.
With people stretched to the nines. Expect a drinking and pain killer addiction to sky rocket
——————–
No brainer.
I’m in with 10k for 20% of equity.
Otherwise, try the Dragon Den.
Even $735,000 is too much for a suburban cookie-cutter. Probably another 20% haircut coming.
Lead Paint: I’ve reinvested into this company for 10 years, but now the money that is there is being claimed by the government. And the key here is not just a particular change to a tax policy, but the positioning and rhetoric of the Liberals.
As a retired civil servant I am very concerned that a man who has invested his life in his company is discouraged. He has truly gaged the political atmosphere. It is the positioning and rhetoric of the Liberals. In the civil service, if there is a set of duties that requires a full time position then I’d say there would be three people hired to do the job. If one goes on mat leave it’s no big deal – the other two can do it. I was very fortunate to find a position that was not redundantly staffed. After 20 years, management figured out that this was something that needed to be done so they brought in a team of several dozen people to do my job.
I’m very afraid Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s proposed tax changes are going to hurt this country.
Judging by the comments here, they already have. — Garth
#94 paulo on 09.14.17 at 10:57 pm
#83 Smoking man
T2 and crew have it covered; legal weed for all lol.
invest in munchie producers!.
…
Their putting fental in weed now. The big cull up ahead. Gartho buddy. I know shit. I understand how the vanished post might have vanished.
1 it seamed rasist
2 book promotion
You are well connected but not as connected as me, UCC. I’m trying to save humanity god damb it.
You can’t get your head around how evil accedimacs with no real life expreance are. And they don’t even know it.
That’s what’s scary.
#7 Victoria Real Estate Update
Ya, VREU is back! We missed you! Its time to ground truth your statements little lady.
“The most popular explanation (fabricated by local realtors and presented as fact to the herd by the local media): Wealthy buyers from Asia had “suddenly discovered Victoria” and were “driving the market”. Realtors and the media claimed that the tap for these buyers had been turned on and would never be turned off. If local potential buyers didn’t buy right now they would “miss out” because wealthy buyers from Asia would swoop in with suitcases full of cash to buy that house. Victoria had changed forever and demand would never fall from 2016 levels.”
I told VREU that she should watch the foreign ownership numbers because she relied on 2015 data – which said that only 0.68% of Victoria buyers were foreign. Guess what, foreign buyers have increased 7 fold in 2016 to 4.7% – and golly gee, prices went up 20% over that time.
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/little-doubt-foreign-buyers-are-pumping-up-victorias-housing-market-says-bmo-chief-economist/wcm/7d399e76-a463-4ae6-962b-dc5cd56e1eb2
The reality is that prices went up 20% this last year as you kept flogging the dead horse of collapsing sales for two years and counting .
“The benchmark value for a single-family home in the Victoria core increased by 15.1 per cent to $829,600 in June, compared with $721,000 last year.”
http://www.timescolonist.com/business/homebuyers-paying-more-than-asking-price-74m-extra-up-to-june-1.20913635
Nice try VREU. Wrong again on all counts. Back to the basement and try again…
A colleague at work want d to list his vancouver house in July his realtor told him to wait till September b cause that is a much stronger period. Will be interesting to see how it plays out he told me it is listed now. He is retirement age and cashing out.
kAT two of your friends spent over. A million on housing so housing in Vancouver won’t go done? Let’s see how that works out too.
You got to love the deep south. Jack Daniels is not served from a bottle. It’s hooked up to the hose that gives you Pepsi.
Not that’s productivity. Love this place, not sure when I’m coming home. It’s going to be soon. Already have a waiting list for the rehab center.
The amazing irony.
#23 Lead Paint
Excellent post. My family members who are small business owners are as discouraged as you. They too have worked very, very hard for almost 10 years, to build their business. They are NOT “tax cheats” as the Turdo and Moron are trying to portray them. Now Turdo and Moron want to tax away the money they’ve kept in the company – to keep improving their business, buy new equipment, make upgrades, provide for their eventual retirement…
Then you have the lazy, zero-ambition idiots wanting these successful peoples’ downfall, wanting their hard-earned money without doing dick.
It’s truly sickening. Turdo, Moron and their Libs will not have my vote in the next election; I won’t forget this and neither will all the small business owners, their families and friends.
There will be less taxes to collect as small businesses will fold, employees will be laid off and so on and so on. So – all you smug, smarmy government employees, get ready for cutbacks/layoffs because guess what? Your jobs are funded by our taxpayer dollars! Surprise!
#47 AGuyInVancouver on 09.14.17 at 8:06 pm
“Please save your Whingefest for the appropriate thread.”
I was responding to “#161 CJBob on 09.14.17 at 1:57 pm”, who was pressing for answers to his snide attacks on my original post. When is the appropriate thread for me to respond to him, at his request? When you get up out of bed and permit me to respond to his crass attacks?
Unlike you I have a job and might not be able to spend 24×7 looking to respond in real-time to the attacks on this blog I’ve endured for sharing, with the likes of you what it’s like to create and build a small business. We know you know nothing about creating jobs. Taking from others… you probably are good at that.
You should start with attacking the ‘firsters’ before attacking people who were attacked in the first place. In my case, I think you’ll find I was sincerely answering the questions to someone who was very rude to me and yet pressing me for information.
But that would require ‘work’ on your part, to look through the correspondence to see wether I was whinging, or answering his questions. I guess I’m a lowly business owner so you’re entitled to deem me worthy of your scorn, for in your worldview I am taking from you. And J2 is encouraging this attitude, so good for you.
My suggestion to you is to go back to bed, wake up in time to vote for whoever will promise you a better life in the near future. With any luck you’ll get a government job and get to attack the rest of your fellow citizens with complete immunity.
p.s. your post was also off topic.
This is not a blip. After following so many bubbles for a couple of decades I will tell this one will be bad for toronto. It really has been cult- like. Most other bubbles do not suck in as many people. This one has been twenty years and ppl borrowed an absurd amount of cash to get in.
Get your ducks in a row. Im the furthest from a doomer but this thing here is gonna be painful
#97 Bottoms_Up on 09.14.17 at 11:10 pm
Even $735,000 is too much for a suburban cookie-cutter. Probably another 20% haircut coming.
….
You have zero idea of the contemped the people you idolize have for you. The fact that you x hale co2 puts you on the cull list.
No jobs for complicated and unpredicablw humans. Robots can give the machine safety in the tought that yes bat man. We have a new shoe shine boy that won’t demand a raise
Did anyone buy my book that calls it perfectly?
#73 FahtCoot
Thanks for sharing your balanced, empathetic world view. I’m not as loquacious or eloquent as you (or our benevolent, learned host), but I appreciate positive contributions from anyone, so again, thank you ).
I am among the hated (a teacher, grade two) and I often recoil a little from the regular mud-slinging my profession endures for “not teaching” the answer for life’s numerous challenges. Is it any wonder I enjoy spending five days-a-week, ten months-a-year with kind-hearted, trustworthy, endlessly enthusiastic seven year-olds?
Just couldn’t pass this up… poor doctor. BWAAA
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/british-columbia/trump-tower-vancouver-deposit-1.4289835
Another interest rate in October may precipitate the start of lower RE prices in Victoria. I think I’ll wait a few years before buying. Just an observation when driving around…many older homes in desperate need of repairs not worth the $1.2M. Waiting until they come down to $300k. My millennial friends are renting and saving and and the tide will turn as they are beginning to out number the boomers here.
#95 JT on 09.14.17 at 11:04 pm
Follow ktmoney on twitter.
———————————————-
I can’t find that handle on Twitter – could you post a link to their page?
interesting read
eqi fax inside job, maybe
https://krypt3ia.wordpress.com/2017/09/14/equihax/
@#84 karma
That includes students and part-timers who don’t need to work full time. Like I said, use household income to be more accurate.
—————-
There are a lot of part timers who want full time work but can’t get it. Household income is a good measure but you have to keep in mind that households are bursting because kids are staying living with their parents longer and you also have more and more renters splitting the same unit. This obviously skews the numbers. You used to have 1 income-earner being able to raise a household. Now you have 2 parents + 1,2 adult children earning income in the same household and it’s still not enough.
I prefer individual median income.
Laugh or cry.
We are the 10 percent
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0FWRT9C9XMQ
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W5K3AKl5qpc
Funny how the 1% still need a tax break
59) Blacksheep: “So come on, lets see some documented evidence supporting this claimed correction. Don’t bother supplying the Average Mix BS that shows higher priced homes, are not selling at the same volume, as in the past and does not prove a loss in home values.
We need blood, show us the carnage, if you can…”
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Blacksheep, tonight's blog is a big heads up towards the market direction. Dig your head out of the sand and make some decisions.
Quit sounding like the rest of the bulls that come on here to try and build each other up. It's beneath you.
I believe that you were/are sitting on $300,000 – $400,000 in equity. If you were counting on that equity for any reason whatsoever then bail out while you can.
If you've found your dream home and your comfortable, you should be able to ride it out, hopefully.
Good luck.
Given the stated date of the OSFI B20 mortgage rules, this should be the period where demand is being brought forward. You usually see bumps ahead of regulatory changes as people try and sneak in ahead of these things. If this the natural demand + the brought forward demand………daaaaaaaaamn daniel
Rate VS Capital
“The reality is that prices went up 20% this last year as you kept flogging the dead horse of collapsing sales for two years and counting .
“The benchmark value for a single-family home in the Victoria core increased by 15.1 per cent to $829,600 in June, compared with $721,000 last year.””
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
… and then it dropped. The biggest problem with forecasting a "correction" is getting the timeline right. People will suggest you are simply "crying wolf". The problem is, the wolf always shows up.
http://www.timescolonist.com/business/after-years-of-rising-values-benchmark-house-prices-cooling-in-victoria-core-1.22369434
… the benchmark price in the core dropped to $823,100 from $834,200 from the previous month.
I’m the 1%. No jock, find it hard to spend money.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0PNenoYmaR8
Just keep saving.
What would you do with 1million? If you have to ask that is why you don’t have it
JT # 95,
Thanks for trying but we need details, with links, or its just more speculation. There must be a realtor, man (woman?) enough to supply this info, after all, this is a RE bear blog, you’d be an instant hero! Lets see that huge volume of declining prices in completed sales…
In a city the size of T.O. this should be very easy to do.
Thanks again JT.
*This post was inspired by screwed millennial and n1tro the other night. You guys both make some great points in some spots. However, I don’t think we need to make each other wrong in order to validate our own beliefs and selves. I think its more productive to listen to each other and gleam whatever we can from it. Then we can have more well rounded views as our awareness increases…
Rich vs. Poor. Boomer vs Millennial. Liberal vs. Conservative. Man vs. Woman. Canada vs. USA…
To preface, I am no expert. I could be wrong about a lot of things I say and assumptions I make. This is just my opinion based on my life experiences, thoughts, exploration and analysis. I am completely open to debate any of this, in fact my views change quite frequently. I look for forward to it…so let’s starts…
Nice post.
That’s 730K PLUS interest…………plus the additional time spent working to pay it off. What a jolt to an RSP, TFSA and unregistered savings that could have made….or a house in a smaller town, a cottage and perhaps a condo in the Caribbean, or ~10 really decent World cruises for two, or a legacy to a loved one or to charity…………..
Ouch doesn’t even come close. Each and every dollar overspent has consequences – a monster of this magnitude is life altering in the most regrettable of ways.
I wonder how many unrecoverable disasters like this are out there?
The discretionary spending loss to the real economy outside of re is likely gargantuan. This does not make for a balanced, diversified and healthy economy.
#73 Faht Coot
“I think its more productive to listen to each other and gleam whatever we can from it.”
——————————————————————–
First of all, it’s glean, not gleam.
Second of all:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22YWYAtcyEA
Good news……SnoopDog says he’s moving to Toronto…..because his drug addled brain is tuned in to MSNBC and soggy with dope…..he’ll fit right in to the underlying mob of stupid. Maybe he’ll rrun for Mayor? Illegals get to vote right.
More Islamic terror in London…..yawwwwwwn. Fat Boy Kim fires another rocket….yawwwwwwn.. RE in Canada…..so over. Bitcoin…..stick a fork in it. A bombing run over N Korea would mean another thousand points on the DOW.
What’s Trudeaus big focus…….Angelina Jolie is coming for a handout . The Boy Blunder will likely write a fat cheque for Angelina’s pet project……’Toys for Dolphins’.
Oh Canada…..while you’re economy is being sucked dry by billions in capital flight and another cancellation of major investments…….and with our politicians on trial for fraud…..with no media coverage…..you’re soooooo stupid.
http://www.cbc.ca/2017/what-if-we-just-kept-renting-how-i-sold-myself-on-a-new-canadian-dream-1.4286274
Renting, for us, has been about neither lack of choice nor compromise, but instead about living the kind of life we want to live. Renting has given us flexibility and financial freedom. And while there are moments when I question if we’re fooling ourselves, if we missed out by failing to get in on the real estate market while it was still remotely possible, I consider the derelict bungalows in our city selling for over a million dollars and wonder who’s been fooled after all.
#13 Royal City Dweller on 09.14.17 at 6:50 pm
“STOP THIS WAR
The federal government should stop its “War On First-Time Home Buyers” says Ontario Real Estate Association led by Tim Hudak.
Remember Hudak?
Apparently these actions: OFSI stress test, rising interest rates etc are all biting into affordability.
Happy Housing Crash Eeveryone Guy, any comments/insights on this?”
Simple.
Cheap, inflammatory and transparent as he!! “communications” device designed to preserve the re status quo which is absolutely killing the economy at large and increasing debt at all levels.
Monstrous RE debt typically means reduced spending elsewhere in order to service those debts, eventual repayment delinquency including on taxes which puts pressure on governments and causes continued economic deterioration, most especially as regards continued good job losses.
Because of stupid pronunciations such as this, our economy is perennially stagnant, far from diversified and becomes one whereby decent jobs are continuously being fleeced due to cuts necessary for survival, given EXCESS cashflow to RE.
I believe that many young people will see through the “WAR ON FIRST-TIME HOME BUYERS”, because a major and unrelenting RESIZING of re prices (fallaciously known as “values”) is just what they and Canadian society need.
Kat
Going to look at a condo in Chilliwack tomorrow for $80,000 looking at saving myself $920,000 if I like it.
Can anybody tell me why the BOC would continue to raise rates? I personally think that the GDP numbers are bs and that continued Cdn$ appreciation is bad news. The housing market is crashing, so why even consider going further? Seems insane to me, but then again everything seems insane to me these days.
M45ON
Was it an application for a HELOC that triggered that? I’m assuming the financing application was not for the financing of the purchase- it must have closed between March 22 and now, right?
If for a HELOC, does a borrower need to inform a lender when he becomes aware of a change in the appraised value of the home? If your garage burns down, the impact on the property’s total value might be a lot less than 40%, but strictly speaking, you should tell the lender.
This homeowner is almost certainly underwater. When does the bank become aware of this, and how will it react?
I think we ALL have relatives that ran or currently run a small business or even farm. The reality is it takes a special individual to step up and take risk. I am not that type. Neither are you bitchers and moaners. Yes some play the system to there advantage. But beware all when the rules get changed. After getting out of high school in the early 80’s saw what Liberal mandates ARE about. If you did vote for this social puppet you were had. Thanks again easterners
#69 Al on 09.14.17 at 9:01 pm
Dinosaurs did not practice hot yoga and now they are extinct. Coincidence?
I’m sitting in the nations capital. Dinner at 18 was relaxing. Highland park and Oban.
Thanks for valuing my posts blog dogs. There’s nothing that says “you’re important” than quick responses and mimic posts.
Life is good
a cautionary tale. when you hear politicians extolling the benefits of restricting + taxing private corporations…
http://modernsurvivalonline.com/socialism-in-venezuela-the-ultimate-cautionary-tale/
#110 Anonymous Coward on 09.15.17 at 12:06 am
Sorry, should have said follow @kt52545265:
https://twitter.com/kt52545265
#119 Blacksheep on 09.15.17 at 2:47 am
There are publicly available sources for sold listings. Not that hard to find if you look around. TREB keeps playing whackamole but there is always at least one such site up.
Again, check @kt52545265 on twitter and you’ll see screenshots of sold listings if you think my comments are “just speculation”
#23 Lead Paint on 09.14.17 at 7:09 pm
Thank you for your sincere reply. I understand this is a very emotional issue for business owners and I wasn’t sensitive enough to that in my post. My apologies for that. I still maintain that you haven’t lost a penny in the short term based on the potential change but regarding that and some other issues we’ll have to agree to disagree.
Best of luck building your business.
#127 David
BoC is bursting the debt bubble. All other issues have gone to the back burner.
#83 Smoking Man on 09.14.17 at 10:01 pm
Real Estate is pooched in Canada.
Invest in Rehab business. Im opening one up shortly. I’ll be the first client. Have the best councler at the helm. No one in Canada even comes close to his cure or death prolong rate.
Industry average 12% his 55% , still loses a client a month to ods.
With people stretched to the nines. Expect a drinking and pain killer addiction to sky rocket
……………………………………………………………………
Now that is a sure investment, ha, ha. Smoking Man at rehab?
That is basically akin to a fox in the hen-house. You would kill your sons opportunity at a successful life of providing detox and to real people out there that want to get clean.
BTW If you decide to get clean SM Alcohol withdrawal symptoms can range from shakiness and irritability to disruption of sleeping patterns. Many alcoholics tend to suffer from depression and those depressive symptoms can increase during withdrawal. Diazepam (Valium), lorazepam (Ativan), chlordiazepoxide (Librium), and phenobarbitals are medications that show promise in helping alcohol withdrawal. Diazepam and chlordiazepoxide are most commonly used in inpatient treatment and can help an alcoholic transition through withdrawal in a smooth, safe way. Benzodiazepines have also been proven to help reduce the effects of alcohol withdrawal since the 1960s. Librium and Valium are two such benzos that assist with withdrawal.
@ #121 maxx on 09.15.17 at 6:59 am
Sorry dawgs, major FUBAR on my numbers.. should read 530K and not 730K – coffee first, then post!
The 530K plus interest still buys the stuff listed.
#128 rational optimist
Although we do not know the full details of the financing
on this bomb, i suspect if it was a HELOC application it was likely made to the first mortgage holder, so they would become aware of the numbers upon review of the application. if it was to a different lender,they would likely have contacted the first holder to confirm the status of the loan ie paid as agreed, and the information on current value would likely come to the surface. if this was a 20% down deal the applicant will likely get a nasty surprise in the form of a letter from the first mortgage holder concerning the debt to equity
ratio being upside down ,and requiring it to be corrected. another one bites the dust!
Ontario Liberals unveil a horribly complicated pot distribution monopoly complete with thousands of Unionized public staff guaranteeing about .01 on the pot revenue dollar goes to things that benefit the average Ontarian.
I’m shocked.
How about a great candidate that I bet Mr Turner could support!
https://www.buzzfeed.com/laurenstrapagiel/vote-4-bork
#127 David on 09.15.17 at 8:20 am
Can anybody tell me why the BOC would continue to raise rates? I personally think that the GDP numbers are bs and that continued Cdn$ appreciation is bad news. The housing market is crashing, so why even consider going further?
_________________
David, I generally believe the GDP numbers but like many others I am skeptical that it will remain at this level, particularly as you point out with housing activity dropping in many markets and exports challenged by the higher CAD$.
This is why I remain skeptical there will be many more rate increases. But to answer your question one reason in favour of continuing to raise slightly is that rates are still at historically low levels. A further 50 basis point increase over the next 6-12 months, for example, would still leave the rate at a very low level.
#140 IHCTD9 on 09.15.17 at 9:58 am
You disagree with a reasonable approach to the initial roll out of pot sales in Ontario.
I’m shocked.
#140 IHCTD8
Fun fact: Liberal party execs benefit from new pot industry:
https://potfacts.ca/the-liberal-party-elite-is-heavily-invested-in-the-medical-marijuana-licensed-producers-mail-order-business/
#140 IHCTD9
Another thing for Patrick Brown to fix when he gets in.
Long list and growing…
that is more like a lobotomy than a haircut!
Ohhhhh Snap!
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/09/15/canadians-debt-hits-record-high-as-wealth-stagnates_a_23210570/
Points for the Snoop pic.
#23 Lead Paint on 09.14.17 at 7:09 pm
It’s true – unless you’ve ever been a business owner, then they’ll never understand how difficult it is to run a small, family owned business.
Anyway, have you ever noticed that not one time has government ever looked inward at what they are doing? Never in history. It always seems to be expand, expand, expand, borrow, borrow, borrow, tax, tax, tax, and take more control over people’s lives without ever considering the consequences.
Those consequences, however, have always been revolution. We’re not there yet and probably won’t be in our lifetime, as we’ve been dumbed down enough to not figure it out, but based on history, it will happen.
#111 NoName:
Re: Equifax hack
Perhaps an inside job; but perhaps this has something to do with it:
https://i.redd.it/fau2uq9jmylz.jpg
#131 Leo Trollstoy … Aww, did I hurt your fweewings? Chin up, tough guy. You still have your Aberfeldy. I wish I could find a way to value your posts. Sadly…
Nitro shows his true colours. Roll up in your Tesla to my house and I’ll let you shine my shoes, dude. Pissing on poor people, as Leo discovered, will foster a sharp rebuke from me. Proof that one can be born into class, but not with it.
1.3 TRILLION dollars owed to the Big 5 on mortgages by 5.4 Canadian households. On this at 3% top line interest, not including all the fees and baggage associated with it, will garner about 40 BILLION dollars per year interest to these same PRIVATE interests. This is money that is not re-invested into the economy at all. It probably goes to the Bahamas or Panama or who knows and who cares as we will never see it. Bankers and their government puppets. Bankers pay better than taxpayers, after all.
And then you fools start blaming poor people? LOL. Must be a ton of paid bank shills on here.
But how dare you Conservatives think you are better than your fellow human being? You’re not. This is the fatal flaw in Conservative ideology. I will not make deals with Conservative bullies. A few quick questions before I issue a purchase order will always tell me who gets my business. Yes, we are not all equal in talents, but that doesn’t mean the strong should oppress the weak, or those on the ‘right’ side of the law, should morally criticize those on the ‘wrong’ side of the law. Everyone should be treated equally. This is the cornerstone of civilized society.
John of Grant: see my work on a few of the so-called top ten self-made billionaires. You should be able to find it online, if you’re smart enough. They’re all related by blood, and they are not who you think they are.
#59 Blacksheep
The ONLY figures that would actually show this 20 to 41% reduction, in S.D. home values in T.O. is:
7) Buy price VS Completed sale price. Period.
This, will show when a buyer, actually LOSES $’s.
Congratulations!
You just described Teranet HPI.
You know, the indicator that everyone here, including Garth, craps upon.
Tracking resale value of the exact same address.
So like, there’s this house on MLS. Cited as 2+1. $750K. By Mimico Go stn. Pics look slick. Upon closer inspection, I realize, they threw a second ‘bedroom’ where the front living room should be, alongside the adjacent single bedroom t’wards the back, and then threw the living room in the finished basement…and a ‘third bedroom’ in the basement. Ain’t no way I am paying three quarters of a mil for a freakin’ 1 bedroom. So sirree. Like wtf. Srsly!?
“There’s a potential fourth bedroom, if you finish the attic, and a fifth if you finish the shed.” LMAO.
Thats a brutal assessment, and the buyer if he closes got crushed. But we won’t know what the loss is until the home sells again. The assessment impacts the ability to get financing but does not not represent market value of a house. I wouldn’t want to be a spring 2017 buyer of a GTA home but lets be real here and aknowledge that no one losses until the sell and realize that loss, or the bank takes away their home on renewal. Those stories are still to be told.
#125 maxx
Exactly bro. It’s actually a war on cheap and easy credit which is making hard for first time buyers. OSFI would in fact make it better for financially sound first time buyers as those who should never be in the market will be shown the door. Less people qualify and price come back to mean average. It makes me sick these shysters (Hudat punk)who lie and decive the public. That’s what makes them dirty evil shysters who should be locked up for financial crimes. The government has to change laws and regulate these criminals.
Wishing ill will on others will only come back and bring misery unto yourself! What gives with those who make comments on here. Are we all that hatefully or quick to judge others based on a few spoken words, please. I love Garth’s blog as it seems to track the “true” facts out there though I do have to question Garth at times, if one buys a home he claims that its only an actual gain when the property sells, how come this view use isn’t applied towards this case as well. This buyer hasn’t actually lost anything with the purchase of the Newmarket home. How does anyone know here what this person’s intentions are – maybe they vision 20 years and this purchase may just as well double in value in 10 years…so please stop with all the we want our fellow human to suffer great financial distress, may they forever carry the burden of debt and may their son’s and daughters be stigmatized but those actions. We truly are a sad lot when many seem just so happy and cheerful when others fall victim to circumstances out of their control.
Those who live and pray to the all mighty dollar are a sorry lot…writing about others just proves that point!!
losing over $3000/day now on SFDs in toronto.
wowsa!
canadians are truly, truly dumb.
@John, I know it will not end well for them. However the mind set here is that no one seems to care what price they have to pay to own as rent is just as crazy. Looking to leave my home province as we are bleeding money. Husband is an apprentice I stay at home to raise the kids as daycare is crazy as well. I feel no pity for all these people complaining of tax changes as we are making big sacrifices for a career and we get no pension and basic health benefits. How many careers now a days even offer pensions anymore we are all responsible for our own retirement and the rich crying foul is as sad as the lazy crying out for more free cash.
#140 IHCTD9 on 09.15.17 at 9:58 am
Ontario Liberals unveil a horribly complicated pot distribution monopoly complete with thousands of Unionized public staff guaranteeing about .01 on the pot revenue dollar goes to things that benefit the average Ontarian.
I’m shocked.
___________________________________________
care to back that up with facts? If not just another shyster story.
#104 Lead Paint on 09.14.17 at 11:45 pm
#47 AGuyInVancouver on 09.14.17 at 8:06 pm
“Please save your Whingefest for the appropriate thread.”
I was responding to “#161 CJBob on 09.14.17 at 1:57 pm”, who was pressing for answers to his snide attacks on my original post. When is the appropriate thread for me to respond to him, at his request? When you get up out of bed and permit me to respond to his crass attacks?…
_ _ _
Here’s a revolutionary thought, post it in the original thread. Or were you worried nobody would read your whine du jour?
Re: #120 Midnights on 09.15.17 at 6:07 am
Rich vs. Poor. Boomer vs Millennial. Liberal vs. Conservative. Man vs. Woman. Canada vs. USA…
Exactly what THEY want you to be distracted about and fighting among ourselves while THEY rob us blind and make US slaves.
Time to change that formula and concentrate on WHO really is the enemy.
THEY-WHO = Bilderberg-Illuminati-Gov’t-Khazarian Mafia-Military Industrial Complex
We-US = People-Citizens-Not 1%ers….Slaves…..
throwback thursday+1.
https://youtu.be/BCc_G7wGGBY
An interview with billionaire and vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger. In this interview Charlies discusses what he sees as the root of the financial crash and how it could of been avoided. Charlie also talks about Lehman Brothers and why it should not of been saved.
25min
#156 SK
Hey what is happening with real estate in your zone? I never hear any info from there. Down slightly I’m assuming?
M48ON
Re: #123 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 09.15.17 at 7:17 am
Good news……SnoopDog says he’s moving to Toronto…..because his drug addled brain is tuned in to MSNBC and soggy with dope…..he’ll fit right in to the underlying mob of stupid. Maybe he’ll rrun for Mayor? Illegals get to vote right.
More Islamic terror in London…..yawwwwwwn. Fat Boy Kim fires another rocket….yawwwwwwn.. RE in Canada…..so over. Bitcoin…..stick a fork in it. A bombing run over N Korea would mean another thousand points on the DOW.
What’s Trudeaus big focus…….Angelina Jolie is coming for a handout . The Boy Blunder will likely write a fat cheque for Angelina’s pet project……’Toys for Dolphins’.
Oh Canada…..while you’re economy is being sucked dry by billions in capital flight and another cancellation of major investments…….and with our politicians on trial for fraud…..with no media coverage…..you’re soooooo stupid.
I’ll bite, which politicians haven’t been reported on for fraud…. please enlighten us, the more the merrier!
Hey, let’s make it a game of who can find the most and best FRAUDS that are/were investigated so we can get the message out who is really running the show in Canada.
I’m sure our eyes will be opened to how corrupt our 3rd errrr, 1st world country is.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-greens-call-for-public-inquiry-into-port-mann-project-1.4184391
Businessmen made millions on Regina land that wound up in taxpayers’ hands:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/businessmen-millions-regina-land-bill-boyd-1.3420479
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_scandals_in_Canada
I’ll start: there has to be some truth in these sites: http://www.waterwarcrimes.com/
Please somebody prove me wrong because it sure shows a lot of sleazy characters who happen to be politicians and judges (and dead ones also).
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/03/08/the-hidden-history-of-the-incredibly-evil-khazarian-mafia/
Must be some truth in there if it is veterans who run this site. Or do they have an agenda, or were they co-opted…..
Garth,
Are you sure those sales numbers provided by Alex are correct? I pulled some stats from TREB, and the number of properties sold from Sep 1-12 seem to be around double the figures stated in the chart, for every region.
#92 Kat on 09.14.17 at 10:43 pm
Realestate still out of control in Vancouver and rentals are just as crazy.
——————
This is simply not true. To be “just as crazy” it would have to be the case that rents have gone up as much as purchase prices, or that the cost of renting was as high as the cost of buying. In reality, in the past 10 years, while rents have gone up by about 40% to 100%, depending on type and location, purchases prices have gone up by 200% to more than 400%, depending on type and location. Over a 5 year term, and assuming that both prices and rents keep pace with inflation, the cost of renting is typically half that of buying for new builds and much less for older places.
Canada household debt-to-income ratio climbs to record high in Q2
http://www.bnn.ca/canada-household-debt-to-income-ratio-climbs-to-record-high-in-q2-1.857418
Canadian household debt as a share of income hit a record in the second quarter as consumers spent more on durable goods, pointing to the challenges that could lie ahead for the economy as interest rates rise.
The ratio of debt to disposable income rose to 167.8 per cent from a downwardly revised 166.6 per cent in the first quarter, Statistics Canada said on Friday, meaning Canadians had $1.68 of debt for every dollar of income.
I mean to say, “purchases prices have gone up by 100% to more than 300%” (2 to 4 times, not 200% to 400%).
This is nothing.
There is no wealth, just debt
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/09/15/canadians-debt-hits-record-high-as-wealth-stagnates_a_23210570/
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-household-debt-income-ratio-123621793.html
————————————
After fueling the biggest credit bubble in real estate in world history now our wise politicians want to increase taxes and rates at the same time thus causing absolutely catastrophic implosion of the economy.
Now is wise to:
1. keep rates low for a veeeery long time
2. decrease taxes so people can pay somehow their loans, at least the majority of them.
Now looking at the intelligence of our leaders – the PM, the Finance minister, BOC governor etc I am truly scared to death.
These people will bring in with the incompetency the mother of all financial crises,a depression that will make the great depression like a walk in the park.
JT # 134,
“There are publicly available sources for sold listings.”
———————————————————–
This is good news JT, as I have not been following T.O. sales.
“There were 556 detached homes sold (July 2017) in the City of Toronto”
http://news.buzzbuzzhome.com/2017/08/9-stats-toronto-housing-market-july-2017.htm
With 556 D.H. sold in one month in TO and a 20% plus correction, finding documented samples (regardless of the month) of a broad decline in the ‘Buy Price VS Completed Sales Price’ should be easy for some of the many RE Bears that frequent this blog.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not looking for some one to do my home work, I’m simply pointing out, as I’ve repeatedly read on this blog, for a claim to be accepted as factual, sourced, linked proof is required.
Other wise all we really have is conjecture.
JT, I checked out the Twitter feed from: https://twitter.com/kt52545265
I read back to the end of July and found only a single sample, of a real price correction based on ‘Buy price VS Completed Sale Price’. For a 20% correction, these type of ‘samples’ will be counted in the 100’s. per month, not once in a six week period.
If documented proof (Buy VS Sell) of these price reduced homes is “Not that hard to find”, why hasn’t kt52545265, an obvious RE bear, shown more of the dozens and dozens of samples that would be required to support @ 20% correction?
Again, thanks for the civil convo.
…………a depression that will make the great depression look like a walk in the park.
—————————–
And do you know who will be blamed for it?
No, not the banks or the politicians or CHMC or BOC, not even the borrowers.
Blaming them is not popular/acceptable.
No, they will blame:
1. foreign investors (1-3 % or purchases at the peak for different markets)
2. Doctors and small Businesses who do not pay their ‘fair share’ (the net ‘savings’ of increased small Business taxes to the budget is expected to be 2 % of the current budget deficit at the cost of destroying the economy in long term).
That is how economy and country is ruled folks.
Hi Garth,
Saw this today and said to myself it looks like mortgage via credit card? Your thoughts?
Consumer credit and other non-mortgage loans jumped to C$12.3 billion from C$6.2 billion as Canadians increased their spending on durable items.
Hi, I realize that rates are still historically low and that the BOC is pricking the balloon, but they’re going to go too far too fast. I think that the GDP numbers are largely driven by deficit spending and is not sustainable. Its masking underlying weakness which will burst into the open when the insane tax reform goes through.
They are looking for a solution of the mess people:
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/09/monetary-policy-framework-issues-toward-2021-inflation-target-renewal/
Monetary Policy Framework Issues: Toward the 2021 Inflation-Target Renewal
The primary goal of this day-long workshop is to explore a range of issues related to monetary policy frameworks – namely the role and objectives of monetary policy, the specification and effectiveness of monetary policy tools, transparency and communications, and lessons learned from other central banks. Examining these topics will help shape the Bank’s broader research agenda, including issues that may be relevant for the 2021 renewal of the inflation-control agreement with the Government of Canada.
The workshop, taking place at the Bank of Canada, will comprise a series of lively and thought-provoking panel discussions. It will be webcast live. The invited audience will include academics, other central bankers, private sector economists and financial market experts, labour union representatives, senior officials from government departments and Crown agencies, representatives from policy think tanks, and the media.
I am sure they will not invite me or GT to these workshops…
Kayaker23
Blogs bring out the best and the worst in people. There’s a lot of stressed out Canadians out there right now.
I don’t think it’s a point of praying to the almighty dollar as realizing that everything in your life revolves around wealth, whether it be giving your kids a good start in life, being healthier or just enjoying your work. What’s the biggest cause of divorce? I do believe its finances or lack thereof. Wealth and poverty have a domino effect on your life, if you improve your financial wealth, chances are you will increase happiness in other aspects of your life. Garth shows one how to do that.
And many lives will be ruined, either way. No excuse for ignorance (as the law says) as we have the internet and the the truth is out.
No more controlled manipulations with gangster-style group mentality especially herding the innocence into a slaughter house.
And keep your hands out of the cookie jar of the small businesses that are slaving to make a business. Give incentives, not take away.
Legalizing pot will only make more pot users as most people think that since it is legal must be okay like alcohol. And the underground sellers and the government fight over the marketing of pot will grow.
And more youths will be harmed.
The Liberals like to sell more of the things that are or can be or lead to harmful avenues, like gambling which they increased the amount. This is not the right road for a leader to lead his people down. Not good for the country, overall.
And more people are harmed!!!
“a world where 70% don’t have pensions.”
You obviously don’t mean THE world. In that one, do more than one or two percent have pensions? Sure, first world people have problems (I won’t use scare quotes, but they wouldn’t be out of place) but to use any word ending in “-geddon” is unjustifiable hyperbole, which you didn’t used to rely on.
Oncebit # 115,
“Blacksheep, tonight’s blog is a big heads up towards the market direction. Dig your head out of the sand and make some decisions.”
“Quit sounding like the rest of the bulls that come on here to try and build each other up. It’s beneath you.”
—————————————————-
Does my asking for documented, linked proof, of the claimed TO 20% correction concern you? Do you not want know, what is really occurring in the RE markets?
I have become agnostic to the idea of RE ownership. If the market is flat or rising, I will continue to own. If I see real proof of a significant correction on the horizon, I will sell.
Do I enjoy my nice home with a big shop and view, of course. Am I ready to rent again with the ridiculously low vacancy rates and insane costs, not so much. You are correct, I do have some substantial gains & equity (for me) on the line.
So say I sell my res, where do I go? My business is in the Valley.
Sell and wait for the impending correction? I already tried that in 2008, with out much success. The idea of snowbird retirement to warmer locals is very attractive, but the timing is off, but only by a few years.
So for now I wait / enjoy life and try to pay close attention to what is really occurring, not to what the Bearish RE blog I frequents opinion says, or to what the bought off MSM says, but to anyone that can show me documented PROOF of what is actually taking place.
If I’ve learned anything it’s this: Don’t bet against the system and forget about the fundamentals or returning to the mean, as there is many outside forces influencing our markets.
Thanks for civil the response.
#177 Blacksheep
Just go to Zolo.ca. You can break down the info any way you wish.
https://mobile.twitter.com/stephen_taylor/status/908360770500644864?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.smalldeadanimals.com%2F
Canadians shouldn’t be worried about dentists sprinkling their income … they should be worried about Moneybags Morneau and the liberal mafia
#175 Entrepreneur on 09.15.17 at 3:36 pm
”Legalizing pot will only make more pot users as most people think that since it is legal must be okay like alcohol. And the underground sellers and the government fight over the marketing of pot will grow.”
—————————————————————–
Imo, I don’t think it will lead to more pot users but I do believe that it will drive the drug pushers to distribute more potent drugs which will result in many more drug related problems. May be happening already when we see what is happening in the lower mainland.
#172 David on 09.15.17 at 3:34 pm
Hi, I realize that rates are still historically low and that the BOC is pricking the balloon, but they’re going to go too far too fast. I think that the GDP numbers are largely driven by deficit spending and is not sustainable. Its masking underlying weakness which will burst into the open when the insane tax reform goes through.
_ _ _
Too fast too soon? Until July interest rates hadn’t risen for seven years! And after the latest we’re at a whopping 1%. How old are you that you are freaking out at 1%?! Many of us remember thinking we were getting a deal at 7% mortgage rates. The period we are now exiting was a dangerous anomaly. They tried the low interest rate, stimulative strategy and now we see what it leads to: massive unmanageable debt. Why on Earth would you argue to continue down such a road?
#177 Blacksheep on 09.15.17 at 4:17 pm
anyone that can show me documented PROOF of what is actually taking place
—————————————————————-
Do you have access to MLS or know someone who does? Your proof is in there.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/06/05/why-hardly-anyone-dies-from-a-drug-overdose-in-portugal/?utm_term=.bac935ffb357
But that CONs said it would be worse.
https://www.thefix.com/content/decrim-nation-portugal-ten-years-later
Ten years it must be a disaster right CONs?
#174 Old Dog on 09.15.17 at 3:36 pm
“… [E]verything in your life revolves around wealth, whether it be giving your kids a good start in life, being healthier or just enjoying your work. What’s the biggest cause of divorce? I do believe its finances or lack thereof. Wealth and poverty have a domino effect on your life, if you improve your financial wealth, chances are you will increase happiness in other aspects of your life.”
I agree. The three aspects of personal well-being are prosperity, health, and happiness. We all should focus on and build up just as much of any one aspect as each of the other two. If we allow any one aspect to be depleted, the depletion of the other two is sure to follow!
Ever heard of role models and if two people smoke your children will smoke, if one parent smokes chances are 50/50, and the kids don’t smoke if the parents don’t smoke as they lead by example, role models.
I actually believe in decriminalization of all street drugs like in Portugal but like in any household show some role models and and in leadership action to go down the correct road.
#150 Eks dee Sipal on 09.15.17 at 11:06 am
Nitro shows his true colours. Roll up in your Tesla to my –house and I’ll let you shine my shoes, dude.
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True colors? Or did I know exactly how to trigger a snowflake given SCM’s response right after was deleted by Garth?
What bothers you about what I said? The fact that I claim to have a $100K car and you don’t? Would it matter that I worked for it or is the hateraide you are drinking forming your opinions of anything towards the right or wealth?
I admit, triggering people is cruel but I couldn’t help myself. Everyone regardless of generational labels has so much potential if they can only drop the downward spiraling mindset.
BTW. I don’t own a Tesla. I drive a Honda but I’m sure to you that means I’m hating on people who take transit.
#181 guy in Vancouver
I was a kid but I remember my parents freaking in 1981 over internet rates. I understand how historically low the rates are. Re-read my post. My argument is that if they move rates too fast, it will cause greater damage than necessary. My reasoning is that the dollar will get over valued and my belief that the GDP numbers are baloney. 4.5% growth is total b.s. Coupled with far left governments from coast to coast and Ottawa, out of control spending and the war on the rich, I don’t see good times ahead.
Corporate scum strategies Bell Canada ,Reliance Discomfort.
Have you noticed what is going on.
Bell Canada –raising your monthly fees and you can’t
disconnect service unless you pay in full. New customers get same service at almost half price and customer service is very deceitful -no more BELL in my house.Lots of complains from my clients.Who with touch Canadian iconic holly cow.
Reliance Discomfort insurance is a scum — you pay they will use every means not to fulfill contractual obligation .
Realtors and broker should be forced to rebate
Every penny that they raked in for commissions
On the over inflated bogus prices and returned to the true owners
I just want to state my support to Happy Housing Crash Everybody. Not only do I look forward to reading your comments. I find you to be truthful and informative and most importantly you make me smile. A little comical relief in dire times. For those who speak the Truth about Rackets, expect some push back. Many who are profiting don’t want the party to end. These people are selfish and have no regard for justice or the future of our children.