What now?

Six months ago nobody thought Canada would raise rates in 2017. Six weeks ago nobody expected rates could rise twice by the end of the year. But one prime rate hike, two rounds of mortgage increases, one Bank of Canada move and a boffo economic report later, here we are.

Current market odds of a second rate hike – in October – are running close to 80%. And, shockingly, there’s now a four-in-ten chance they could be jacked one more time before this pivotal year is out. The very thought of this was enough to send the dollar skidding higher by most of a cent, over the eighty mark.

And, wow, look at Mr. Bond…

The yield on five-year Canada bonds – the benchmark used for pricing fixed-rate mortgages – is in heat. From a low of half a point a year ago (when the geniuses here said rates could never rise), it has risen by more than 300%, and is likely on its way higher. This means you can pretty much count on more hikes in mortgage rates, which are already closing in on 3% and may well be 4% by next summer.

What happened?

The big news Friday was the economy. After being in a funk last year, the GDP’s gone ballistic. It’s growing at the fastest rate in 17 years – since way back when people were lining up to buy Nortel and busy creating Millennials. The 4.6% growth rate in May wipes the floor with the 1.2% rate of US expansion. This is the seventh month in a row the economy has swelled, which is the best stretch in seven years. Combine that with better job and trade stats, and the mighty Land of the Beaver rocks.

Of course, not everything is cool. While oil, manufacturing and retailing were romping, housing was limping. Real estate and rental leasing fell for the first time in six months and the activity of real estate agents plunged 6.3%.

This is consistent with the fading street price of housing that this pathetic blog has been detailing with gruesome, horrifying yet addictive regularity lately. The official price of a detached home may have fallen in the GTA by about 16% since April, but that’s not taking into account the vast number of transactions which aren’t closing in a domino game of crashed deals. Stats in the months to come will show what agents are seeing daily.

Like Uri Kogan. His weekly report on sales and listings in a demand area of north Toronto is a snapshot of seller despair. There are 76 active listings in his area of focus (Steeles/Centre/Yonge/Dufferin) and last week there were 0 sales. Zero. The most recent accepted offer was made 20 days ago. Prior to that, only five houses sold in July. This is how a serious price correction starts – when buyers lose their motivation and simply disappear.

Well, a better economy’s a good thing, of course. I told you a couple of months back to tactically increase your Canadian portfolio weighting. Now you know why. You were also advised a year ago to pick up preferred shares when they were, like me, cheap and irresistible. Because these give a great dividend and also rise right along with interest rates, prefs have jumped about 15% in value in a year while paying you cash flow to own them. How sweet is that?

But robust growth for Canada will also guarantee a little more inflation and consistently rising interest rates. The bank prime of 2.95% will certainly be 3.2% and possibly almost 3.5% by year’s end. Secured HELOCs will rise to the 3.5% level. Fixed-rate, five-year mortgages will be similarly prised, putting them a full point higher than a year ago. Yeah, money’s still cheap, but every day more people wake up to the understanding (a) we will never again see 2% loans and (b) Justin can’t save you.

Things to do next week: lock up your variable rate mortgage. Get some preferreds. Drop your selling price. Start a neighbourhood realtor support group. Adopt a dog. You may need someone to lick you this winter.

 

182 comments ↓

#1 paracho on 07.28.17 at 6:25 pm

Looks like Interest rates will increase in the next announcement in the fall. Most mortgages are variable and that extra uptick will put many at risk

#2 Randy on 07.28.17 at 6:26 pm

I blame the Baby Boomers

#3 active on 07.28.17 at 6:30 pm

man it’s nice to be debt free at 32 with over $550K in liquid assets.

#4 Popeye the Sailor Man on 07.28.17 at 6:36 pm

I’m ahead of you this time.

We did a blend and extend on our fixed mortgage 2 weeks ago and went from 3.5% to 2.9% for 5 years.

I think we will be happy with this for the next 5 years.

#5 Ian on 07.28.17 at 6:39 pm

Does anyone have any info on how this coming 2% higher interest rate stress test will affect mortgage approvals? ie how many might be rejected? I’m amazed I haven’t seen an article analysing this, but I’m sure one of you will have something for me…

#6 Penny Henny on 07.28.17 at 6:40 pm

Todays photo.
I’ll bet you can’t do that.

Although you are a hotdog.

#7 Paully on 07.28.17 at 6:41 pm

Soooooo glad to be renting right now!!

#8 More $ More Homes on 07.28.17 at 6:45 pm

Doesn’t all this juicy economic growth mean that unemployment drops, and salaries have inflationary increases, which means more people have more money to buy houses, even with the rate increases?

I seen another unanticipated event happening here on this blog as everyone cheers the rate increases – more buyers with money in their pockets, with more confidence to buy given the strong economic fundamentals.

Probably another ‘unintended consequence’ in a long list on ones on this blog that will keep the RE party going.

#9 Guy in Calgary on 07.28.17 at 6:48 pm

Scary thinking of the giant GTA conventional mortgages (includes any house over $1M which must be a lot) that had a 44% TDS qualifying at 2.4%-2.6%. Scary indeed. I still do not understand how these people get approved for these mortgages while keeping TDS/GDS reasonable. Co-signers and guarantors? Good idea for them to trash the mortgage if they have the cash flow available. If not renewal could be painful.

Cowtown is still trotting along. Seems to be a little more optimism around town now. People are getting back to work and the higher end restaurants seem to be packed most weekends. Seems guys are back on their rotations up North too. Mid-level homes still seem to be moving if they are good quality but in most cases, count on being on the market for 30 days at least.

Bang on with the preferreds too, CPD has been a rockstar. Everything else has been pretty flat. Boring time of year I guess.

#10 Vancouverite on 07.28.17 at 6:50 pm

Maybe the CRA needs to look closely at undeclared foreign income. You can’t be a resident, and use the principal resident excemption, and then claim to not be a resident in order to pay no taxes in Canada

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/refugees-pay-more-income-tax-than-millionaire-investor-immigrants-1.2984982

#11 Howard on 07.28.17 at 6:50 pm

It’s growing at the fastest rate in 17 years – since way back when people were lining up to buy Nortel and busy creating Millennials.

——————————–

Teens born 17 years ago are not Millennials.

They are Centennials, also known as Gen Z : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_Z

Actually Mills were born up to 2002 or 2004, depending on the demographics source you believe. — Garth

#12 Tony the Gino on 07.28.17 at 6:53 pm

I have yet to find a house at 20% off. Everything so so expensive. In fact prices are going higher. And more homes are selling off realtor.ca now. Are you certain prices will continue to decrease? Or will I miss another boat again if a tiny savings before they go up again.

#13 Dave on 07.28.17 at 6:54 pm

The NDP/Green BC party is begun reviewing housing data.Horgan sledge hammer is going to be epic. Question is when they want to time it. My guess in September the winter blues will start early.

#14 Sprawl on 07.28.17 at 6:59 pm

Doesn’t GDP include government spending? But not account for debit on government spending? If this is the case, GDP is to open to be politically skewed, to be an effective measure, of economic health?

#15 DaleFromCalgary on 07.28.17 at 7:01 pm

Yes, but what kind of jobs? Part-time or full-time? McJobs or real jobs? I now deal almost entirely with awl biz folk down in Oklahoma or Texas, where the back-office petroleum accountants and geologists are. A lot of accountants have been replaced by Websites such as EnergyLink (where most companies pay or receive oil royalties and settle up pooled field accounts, all by automated accounting). Even McDonalds is automating because of the Alberta Dippers’ $15 per hour minimum wage.

Calgary skyscrapers have so much vacancy that I can now go into the food courts at 12h15 and still get a good seat. Two years ago, I had to get my lunch by 11h30 or else wait in line.

#16 Dave on 07.28.17 at 7:02 pm

How come there are virtually no condos for sale in the west side of Vancouver for under half a million if prices are dropping? Do you see the crap adverstised for 600k?

#17 Willy H on 07.28.17 at 7:05 pm

A VAMPIRE Market!

“It’s entirely possible sentiment will shift again as quickly as it did at Easter. That’s what the real estate establishment is praying for – a summer of soft landing followed by the resumption of bull market conditions.”
___ ___ ___ ___

Lot’s of very pale folks yapping around the water cooler are saying as much. They reek of first-time buyer sweat and stale open houses. You have to wonder if this is a “Vampire Market”. Appears to be dead but it’s tepid and loathsome form is just reposing in it’s rancid coffin awaiting fresh blood from CREA’s latest victims.

Let’s hope and pray that OSFI and the BoC put a stake through the heart of this beast!

#18 Nothing Burger on 07.28.17 at 7:06 pm

#5 Ian on 07.28.17 at 6:39 pm
Does anyone have any info on how this coming 2% higher interest rate stress test will affect mortgage approvals? ie how many might be rejected? I’m amazed I haven’t seen an article analysing this, but I’m sure one of you will have something for me…

——-

I went for a pre-approval at Scotia this week and discussed in detail the 2% stress test. According to my banker, this new 2% stress test will be a non issue just like the 5 year qualifying at the fixed rate changes last Fall.

Why? Scotia has already been doing the stress tests for for those new buyers seeking insured and uninsured loans. Been doing it for some time.

While not all banks are doing it, odds are pretty good that some others all.

As for rental income, he said that they changed the policy 9 months. Before, many banks would give you 100% of the income if there was a legal suite the house – even though they were only supposed to give you 70% (to account for vacancies). Now they will only give 50%.

Another ‘nothing burger’ that will not wipe out the 20% of first time buyers like the 5 year qualifying rate stress test was supposed to do. After all, prices kept going up for the main markets in YVR and GTA. Only the provincial ‘fair housing program’ killed the GTA market in April – it was not lending practices or rates.

And those fair housing program measures can be easily reversed.

#19 paracho on 07.28.17 at 7:10 pm

Hey Garth ,
Love your blog..here daily (mandatory ass kissing )..mostly agree with you . Now thinking of adding to my Preferred shares. Having held PFF , a Preferred share ETF with US holding since the CDN was par with the US dollar..I am now contemplating expanding to a Canadian Preferred ETF within my RRSP on Monday morning . considering CPD ( Price $14.17 and yielding 4.49% ) or ZPR (Price $11.56 and yielding 4.25%) ..which do you prefer as I have a budget within the RRSP ?????
Also If you do not prefer these ETF’s any specific Preferred shares you would mention ?
Much obliged !

#20 rainclouds on 07.28.17 at 7:19 pm

#191 Same Same “No, a by-election will be called for her seat in 2 weeks and the Liberals will remain with 43 seats.”

Errr, actually it’s 6 months, By then the commies should have enough ammo to point the finger back at Coleman, DeJong, (8 houses) Anton(4 houses) and all their other ethically challenged peers. Owning property isn’t a problem. Pandering to developers and goosing markets while creating policy IS.

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/surging-real-estate-makes-2-3m-for-b-c-cabinet-as-affordability-worsens-1.2751578

The parachute drop to So Cred central was interesting. She was so despised in her home riding they had to enlist the blue hairs in Kelowna to finally let her sit in the Leg. (Did she promise rain?) Even more interesting is: the Duchess of Dunbar lives rent free in Vancouver thanks to …..bribery?

http://thebreaker.news/

She was pushed for sure but no doubt isn’t upset given the likely fallout of hidden debacles. Lots of Skeletons………….many months of bad optics coming for the shysters. Look forward to switching the radio channel when her talk show emerges.

#21 Banned Canadian Millenial on 07.28.17 at 7:20 pm

If you guys saw the harmless post that got me banned, even you would admit Garth was in the wrong. But Garth can never admit he was wrong or even handle being questioned on his beliefs.

You are a disrespectful little snot. And still banned. — Garth

#22 Contrary Canadian on 07.28.17 at 7:26 pm

Blog Dogs! I need your advice on a real estate transaction!

I’m helping my mom, who’s in her 70s, sell our 50 year old family home on an acreage in Langley BC after my dad passed away earlier this year. We just listed it earlier this week, first open house is tomorrow and our realtor has set an offer date of Tuesday for offers, as these guys like to do to create possible bidding wars.

We’ve had a bully offer today that expires at 11am tomorrow, just before the first open house is scheduled to start and I have a few concerns, so would love the advance of blog dogs who’ve been through this wringer many times.

Details (numbers slightly fudged for privacy reasons but representative):

– $1.55M – Assessed (last July)
– $2.195M- List price
– Bully offer – $2.2M with $200k deposit and no conditions, plus a flexible close date that we have some leeway over – expires tomorrow
– Just found out that another buyer’s agent will be coming to personally present another bully offer later tonight

Concerns

– Our realtor has disclosed to us that he wrote the offer on behalf of the buyers, but is not “double-ending” it and is only representing us as the seller, which the buyers have supposedly agreed to

– His feedback is that he thinks it’s a fair offer and he’s encouraging us to take it, saying he doesn’t think there’s a lot of upside from here should we go to offer day and it’s a clean (no subjects) offer.

– To be fair to him, he’s also said he thinks our list price is very fair and doesn’t see a lot of down side to rolling the dice and waiting for offer other than the uncertainty (my mom’s very stressed about everything these days)

– I asked about the buyer agent portion of the sales commission (46% of total sales commission would normally go to buyer’s agent) and he’s saying that since there is no buyer’s agent, they are entitled to the commission themselves, since they wrote the offer

– Since other potential offers we might get on offer day are likely to come from buyers using another agent, he’d make a lot more money enabling a bully offer if we accept now, so I’m a bit concerned his advice may be tainted (if we got $2.5M on offer day, he’d make about 60% the commission he would on the bully offer even though we’d get $300k more) – he said that’s not influencing his advice but is also not willing to waive the buyer’s agent commission.

– Secondary but of interest – Offer is being made by 3 separate Chinese individuals (all men, none of them with the same family name) and they’ve listed their address on the offer as “care of Remax” – so they’re not disclosing if they’re local or not – this is Langley, where according to the media and realt estate boards, there is supposedly little to no hot Asian money, hmmm

Questions

– What are your thoughts about whether or not the realtor should waive the buyer’s commission? I’m actually less worried about it in terms of the net $ to my mom and more worried that it taints his advice to her. He commented that he’s not having any problems making his car payments, but the difference is more like a whole car

– If you were me and if the second bully offer isn’t substantially different/better, would you advise my mom to wait out the weekend and go to offer day? Why or why not? I realize a lot of this is dependent on personal situations, etc. but I’m curious what others think from their perspective.

– For interest’s sake – shouldn’t the buyer provide details of their address on the contract of purchase and sale? Is it actually okay to just use “Care of” a real estate brokerage? I thought there were some attempts to track offshore purchasers and collect the 15% foreign buyers tax (which is applicable in Langley). I’m sure when they register title they’ll have to put something in but seems like the paper trail starts here.

Looking forward to your thoughts and advice!!!

#23 zee on 07.28.17 at 7:27 pm

Hey Garth

If Canada is doing so great, then why is the TSX performing so poorly so far this year.

#24 Lexie on 07.28.17 at 7:28 pm

How to earn $525/hr (tax free?) with a 33% ROI. It’s easy…
https://www.castanet.net/news/Investment-Real-Estate/202704/Real-estate-is-worth-it#.WXvHMop5wzI.email

#25 Blacksheep on 07.28.17 at 7:28 pm

“But robust growth for Canada will also guarantee a little more inflation and consistently rising interest rates. The bank prime of 2.95% will certainly be 3.2% and possibly almost 3.5% by year’s end. Secured HELOCs will rise to the 3.5% level. Fixed-rate, five-year mortgages will be similarly prised, putting them a full point higher than a year ago. Yeah, money’s still cheap, but every day more people wake up to the understanding (a) we will never again see 2% loans”
—————————————
Garth,

% of rate increase from nothing, means, nothing.

Money has been free for many years now and with inflation rising as you point out, even at 4% on the 5 year fixed (still dirt cheap) money is almost free.

Any minor increase in lending rates will be offset with our now, hot economy and new employment opportunities.

Sorry Dogs, but those who missed the boat and are waiting at the dock, are screwed.

#26 Contrary Canadian on 07.28.17 at 7:29 pm

BTW – I’ll be sure to share results once the shenanigans are all complete :-).

#27 Blobby on 07.28.17 at 7:30 pm

@#18 “Nothing Burger”

… So you believed the salesperson then? Who’s trying to convince you getting a mortgage is a good idea and not risky?

#28 Spock on 07.28.17 at 7:35 pm

#19 paracho

I would recommend buying HPR (Horizons Active Preferred ETF) – actively managed by Fiera (one of the biggest players in the preferred market)

almost same MER as the others which just follow the index. These guys are far far better than ZPR and CPD.

Have been in HPR since a year and half and happy with it.

#29 Dan.t on 07.28.17 at 7:35 pm

#9 Guy in Calgary
Scary thinking of the giant GTA conventional mortgages (includes any house over $1M which must be a lot) that had a 44% TDS qualifying at 2.4%-2.6%. Scary indeed. I still do not understand how these people get approved for these mortgages while keeping TDS/GDS reasonable. Co-signers and guarantors? ”

Head down to BC and then your head will really spin. But then again, everyone is super rich in BC and prices only ever go up so it really doesn’t matter what you pay for a house or condo because it will be worth way more next year anyhow.

Because real estate only ever goes up
and everyone wants to live in Langley BC or Poco, or Aldergrove (where you ask…its awesome, believe me and worth 1.2 mil).

Once you understand those 2 facts of life, it all makes sense!

The question becomes, why aren’t YOU or your friends buying in BC?

#30 Snowboid on 07.28.17 at 7:39 pm

Declining prices in real estate? Bad investments?
Not according to Honest Hazzi of Kelowna, you can make over $ 500 an hour by buying a duplex and renting it out.

Of course, the math is typical gobbledegook, but enjoy it anyway…
https://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-202704-1044-.htm#202704

#31 Cjlizzard on 07.28.17 at 7:41 pm

Something doesn’t add up…..oil romping????! Really…..someone haven’t been in Calgary recently…zero happening here. Manufacturing romping? Shouldnt a higher dollar hurt. Retail….ahhhhh,ok

#32 not going down on 07.28.17 at 7:41 pm

Garth & Don:

Stunning how willfully blind (or ignorant) people are to monetary policy. — Garth
*****************************

Stunning is putting it lightly. This person must have just graduated from high school and I can forgive him/her for not understanding history or having no knowledge of it.
*****************************

Actually I have 2 degrees and I understand enough about monetary policy to have an opinion on it that is at least as good as yours. With all do respect to both of you, it appears that I have more claim to being more right over the last 10 years than either one of you who claim the sky is falling. Outside of yvr condos are going up like gangbusters with completion dates 2-3 years out as inventory can’t cope with demand. Say what you want, I talk to people in the field, I see madness as it is with my boots on the ground. Wait until the dead of winter to buy this year and get things for slightly more (or the same) then they were in the spring of 2017.

This pressure you see is coming from A. people needing to live in urban areas where jobs are B. Global flow of capitol to our lovely country C. Population growth in urban areas from immigration or people moving to urban centers. YVR will always be king.

Don, put this little tidbit in that diary you keep by your bed (the one with the girlish lock and key where you write in each night grinning and licking your lips, wishing doom and gloom on the world):

5 years from now.
1. Interest rates in the 4-6% range (max). People making their payments.
2. House prices at the same (or higher) levels anywhere near the important cities.
3. Debt eaten up by inflation, modest housing gains, economic gains, and population gains.
4. Debt at new “all-time” levels.
5. A new class of “owners” and “renters” as is the case in Europe where many rent for life.
6. People on this blog still talking about a housing crash.

#33 Mike on 07.28.17 at 7:42 pm

Record Condo and SFH prices in Edmonton.
.

#34 nubbers on 07.28.17 at 7:46 pm

Start a neighbourhood realtor support group. Adopt a dog. You may need someone to lick you this winter.

Licking? mmm… Are we talking the realtor or the dog?

#35 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.28.17 at 7:47 pm

IF there is a housing correction the Canadian economy and consumers will go into recession and the BOC will lower rates again and two per cent mortgages will be back. They will find a way. No way are they going to pop the bubble.

#36 Dissident on 07.28.17 at 7:47 pm

#187 Shortymac on 07.28.17 at 2:48 pm
@Dissident on 07.28.17 at 1:02 pm

I think that a lot of sellers still think it’s 2016 and have listed under those prices. Wait until the winter, that is when the panic will truly set in.
I’m also looking for a whole house and I suggest either Vaughn or Richmond hill for decent whole house rentals in the 2000-2500 range.
Lots of inventory up there and all relatively new and updated.
My plan is to wait for next year, that is when people will be willing to get out no matter what

__________________________________

Yeah, my husband was pointing out a lot of nicer new builds that were hitting the market as rentals just north of the city, like Vaughan, etc. He went and saw a place that belonged to two brothers, speculators, and they said they bought two units in a new build development ($800 to $1mil type). We’re guessing they realized they couldn’t sell at a large enough profit, so they are renting them. Lots of speculators are doing that it seems. Or they’re trying to offload renovated flipper properties in the city’s core ASAP, before they miss the heat of the market. Depends on their sentiment. Usually its because their finances would be at risk otherwise.

Maybe sell the condo now, rent in Vaughan for a year, and then come back for spoils in the city. I still don’t know if that’s a wise move though. Thing is, my family is in Etobicoke/’sauga. So that’s a long drive. And I mean, what the eff am I going to do in Vaughan!? Lol.

#37 VI Update on 07.28.17 at 7:49 pm

The ferry line ups are miles long with cars full of pollen ready to buy some premium Island homes. I’m betting things will be up another tick or two next week when stats are released. We create our own tide on the Island. You can do this with long beaches and pet orcas in your back yard.

#38 SimplyPut7 on 07.28.17 at 7:54 pm

There are 76 active listings in his area of focus (Steeles/ Centre/Yonge/Dufferin) and last week there were 0 sales. Zero. The most recent accepted offer was made 20 days ago.

—————–

Isn’t that the area where a house went for $400,000 over the asking price?

https://www.thestar.com/business/2016/12/21/gta-house-goes-for-400000-over-asking-it-was-like-a-rock-concert.html

I thought everyone had a million dollars to spend on the home, especially in that area.

Lol.

#39 Teflon on 07.28.17 at 8:01 pm

#13 Dave on 07.28.17 at 6:54 pm
The NDP/Green BC party is begun reviewing housing data.Horgan sledge hammer is going to be epic. Question is when they want to time it. My guess in September the winter blues will start early.

——–

Nah, they are not even being briefed yet let alone looking at the data. Your intel is bad. Then will not even be sitting in the House until September and their focus will be on a budget – not housing.

It will be months before anything happens and by that time the development and realtor communities will have established a solid relationshop with them. And then, with the OSFI changes and rate increases, they will likely back off. RE is a cash cow for BC.

#40 Nothing Burger on 07.28.17 at 8:09 pm

#21 Blobby on 07.28.17 at 7:30 pm
@#18 “Nothing Burger”

… So you believed the salesperson then? Who’s trying to convince you getting a mortgage is a good idea and not risky?

———

Nope, known him for years – a very risk aversive guy.

I speak openly about the inflated market and the fact that I will likely lose 20% when I buy (only have to buy because of a young family). He never pushes for anything except financial prudence in not taking on a lot of debt. He openly admit 50% of his clients are completely over extended. And he is a renter because he knows the local market is inflated.

Nice try though – the bank policies still stand.

#41 Nothing Burger on 07.28.17 at 8:13 pm

#20 Contrary Canadian on 07.28.17 at 7:26 pm

Blog Dogs! I need your advice on a real estate transaction!
——

No point asking for advice here. Everyone believes prices are falling everywhere so your bully bid offer will not resonate.

It will resonate even less since foreign capital has no influence and certainly would not be involved in a bully bid.

Take the money and run.

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.17 at 8:17 pm

@#20 Contrary Canuck

You trust a realtor after reading this site?
The realtor is double fisting and is a greedy hack.
Wait it out.
See what the other offers are.
Either way. Your mom wins.

#43 Damifino on 07.28.17 at 8:17 pm

#2 Randy

I blame the Baby Boomers
——————————-

I blame their parents.

#44 Where's The Money Guido? on 07.28.17 at 8:22 pm

DELETED

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.28.17 at 8:22 pm

@#21 Banned Disrespectful Millenial Snot

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

#46 Where's The Money Guido? on 07.28.17 at 8:24 pm

Forgot to mention that Clark is in line to collect around $1.7 million in pension if she takes it at age 60, in ~10 years. Crooks….

#47 T on 07.28.17 at 8:24 pm

#12 Tony the Gino on 07.28.17 at 6:53 pm
I have yet to find a house at 20% off. Everything so so expensive. In fact prices are going higher. And more homes are selling off realtor.ca now. Are you certain prices will continue to decrease? Or will I miss another boat again if a tiny savings before they go up again.

——-

If you are that desperate to leave your parents basement, go make some low offers on houses you would like. Come back to us with your findings.

List prices are not selling prices. Get over it already.

#48 choptstix on 07.28.17 at 8:27 pm

who needs to buy!…hell just rent ..even in downtown Scamcouver:
here is a nice 200ft apt in Gastown for you…only $1200..see the pic and article…this city has totally lost her soul and gone NUTS!
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/closet-space-gastown-apartment-on-craigslist-is-1450-for-200-square-feet?google_editors_picks=true

#49 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.28.17 at 8:27 pm

The Housing crash in the GTA has been a disaster for realtors. Deals falling through and prices crashing in Woodbridge where tony the realtor spews nonsense as PRICES CRASH greater then 20% as per Garth’s REAL LIFE example of yesterday. Realtors are uneducated shysters who couldn’t handle the basics of high school. When they realized one could become a self proclaimed professional after 6 weeks of training with the main requirements being a pulse to pass and the ability to lie for $10’s of thousands? You bet those shyster criminals jumped all over that. This house of cards is built on realtor lies and mortgage fraud via CMHC. Lenders want no part in sharing the risk since they know MAYJORITY are bankrupt and only can stay solvent by borrowing more money. The tidy is going out and everyone is naked. In a perfect world may realtors and mortgage brokers would be jailed for their financial crimes. I feel bad for the tiny number of the good hard working honest realtors. wishing everyone a Happy housing crash! :-)

#50 choptstix on 07.28.17 at 8:28 pm

sorry i’m wrong: $1450 for that enlarged birdcage in gastown not $1200

#51 Smoking Man on 07.28.17 at 8:31 pm

#35 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.28.17 at 7:47 pm
IF there is a housing correction the Canadian economy and consumers will go into recession and the BOC will lower rates again and two per cent mortgages will be back. They will find a way. No way are they going to pop the bubble.
…….

Wrong. Globalists plan is to destroy western middle class both financial and culturally. And Selfiy Boy is there poster child to get this done.

Agenda 2030

They will do it using mass immigration ensuring liberal globalists votes. Just look at Europe.

In the cross hairs. Straight white men. Reason? They are the true risistance. As a safety measure via the populism of Transgender hype they are not taking any chances. With get the boys on JK and turn them into girls.

My Tinfoil Fedora second to non.

#52 acdel on 07.28.17 at 8:34 pm

#9 Guy in Calgary

Do not forget that the population of the city is still increasing, although most from natural births but nothing like the past recessions where droves left and greatly impacted the economy, although hard hit, this time it was different. Looks like many are doing alright, have confidence in what is happening and are moving forward now.

#53 TSX Counsel on 07.28.17 at 8:39 pm

#23 zee on 07.28.17 at 7:27 pm
Hey Garth

If Canada is doing so great, then why is the TSX performing so poorly so far this year.

I emailed my financial adviser today to have lunch with him next week to ask the same. Canada is booming (?), but the TSX is going down. WTF.

#54 TS on 07.28.17 at 8:42 pm

My financial advisor at Dominion Securities has me in a 90% garth approved portfolio (ETFs over mutual funds, preferred shares, not over exposed to Maple)

But he seems to think that everybody needs exposure to Floating Rate Bank Loans and has me a in a mutual fund (1.00% MER) to get exposure to this.

Garth, I’ve never heard you mention this type of investment so I’m wondering why it’s necessary if you’ve never devoted a blog to it

#55 Mark on 07.28.17 at 8:43 pm

Allegedly 4.6% GDP growth. Job boards for engineering talent are largely empty. Doesn’t pass even the most basic of “smell” tests.

The TSX “should” be smoking hot if we were really at 4.6% annualized GDP growth. Yet here we are, still hovering around levels of over 9 years ago. As someone heavily invested in XIU, and interested in seeing the economy start to accelerate, it’d be nice to believe the “numbers”, but little independent evidence, particularly in the job market, inflation, stock earnings, etc., exist to support such levels of economic growth.

#56 #49 Shyster on 07.28.17 at 8:43 pm

HHCE seems to have his panties in a knot for a few weeks now. Should we crowdfund some help for him so he can think straight during this opportunistic housing romp?

#57 Willy H on 07.28.17 at 8:51 pm

#32 not going down on 07.28.17 at 7:41 pm
” This pressure you see is coming from A. people needing to live in urban areas where jobs are B. Global flow of capitol to our lovely country C. Population growth in urban areas from immigration or people moving to urban centers…”
__ __ __ __ __ __

Not so sure.

Jobs are no longer geographically centered. Technology allows increasing numbers of workers to live and produce remotely. This will have a profound effect in the coming years. Canadian firms are still run by stodgy WASP’s in most cases who are years behind in terms of promoting working from home etc…

Just imagine the impact on high density urban housing and commercial RE if your entire back-office can work remotely saving millions in fixed overhead costs. It’s already a reality for a handful of progressive well run firms.

Employees working from home are happier to take smaller pay packets when they no longer have the burden of commuting costs etc..

We have not even begun to scratch the service in this area.

The GTA is a soulless suburban hellscape from Hamilton to Oshawa. Endless cookie-cutter suburbs, big box retail and chain restaurants. Urban sprawl is devouring small town Ontario, overwhelming infrastructure and destroying Grade A farmland.

The South of France is cheaper …. so are a dozen cities in the USA with a far better climate, and in many cases, arguably, a better quality of life.

Capital inflows into over-valued residential real estate do nothing to increase our productivity or innovative capacity as a nation. What we really need is working capital in high growth sectors, not the world’s 2%’s buying ski chalets.

Global capital can evaporate just a quickly as it materializes.

Canada will not the world’s darling indefinitely.

#58 Deplorable waste of space dust on 07.28.17 at 8:55 pm

#51 Smoking Man on 07.28.17 at 8:31 pm
#35 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.28.17 at 7:47 pm
IF there is a housing correction the Canadian economy and consumers will go into recession and the BOC will lower rates again and two per cent mortgages will be back. They will find a way. No way are they going to pop the bubble.
…….

Wrong. Globalists plan is to destroy western middle class both financial and culturally. And Selfiy Boy is there poster child to get this done.

Agenda 2030

They will do it using mass immigration ensuring liberal globalists votes. Just look at Europe.

In the cross hairs. Straight white men. Reason? They are the true risistance. As a safety measure via the populism of Transgender hype they are not taking any chances. With get the boys on JK and turn them into girls.

My Tinfoil Fedora second to non.

So did you find an island that bans trannies since you are so scared of them. Run run away. Real men don’t run. Kristin beck would kick your ass after she was finished with the trumpster the draft dodger.

#59 Ret on 07.28.17 at 8:56 pm

Statistics Canada. Are these not the same people who tell us year after year that inflation is 1% while everything that I buy goes up 3-4%?

I believe in the Tooth Fairy and Santa more than Statistics Canada. Time will tell what’s real shine in the economy and what’s just shinola.

#60 Rantanplan007 on 07.28.17 at 8:58 pm

4.6% GDP growth compared to last year… let’s see…

1) last year the oil sands were shut because of forest fires, this year they were mostly operational (other than the Syncrude fire)

2) last year Fort McMurray was burning, this year it’s being rebuilt

3) last year, some oil sands mega projects were going full steam, now they’re approaching completion

4) last year, real estate prices were skyrocketing, now they are stable or falling

5) last year, the overnight interest rate was 0.5% with a loonie at 0.71 now it’s at 0.80

…. my opinion is that all these conditions to explain +4.6% compared to last year will disappear in 2018. I expect a recession in 2018.

#61 choptstix on 07.28.17 at 8:58 pm

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/closet-space-gastown-apartment-on-craigslist-is-1450-for-200-square-feet?google_editors_picks=true
sorry meant $1450 for this enlarged 200ft closet…something you’d see in Hong Kong..but in Canada? Scamcouver is nuts.

#62 TSX on 07.28.17 at 9:04 pm

short it

somebody has to be right. So far its been me…:)

in the red she remains, and comfortably below her 200 DMA

#63 Dissident on 07.28.17 at 9:07 pm

OR…instead of selling our condo and renting in Vaughan/Richmond Hill for 1 or 2 year and then buying a resale house in Toronto, why not just throw the money into a preconstruction in Toronto and bypass the mouldy, dank hellholes of 1920s houses (100 year old houses!) listed for $800K. Instead buy a sweet brand spanking new house for $800K :D Problem is, there are limited developments that are not just condos inside the city core. Would likely be a ‘luxury’ townhome or some such thing.

#64 not me on 07.28.17 at 9:09 pm

Soooooo glad to be renting right now!!

…………..

proud owner. Debt free….may rent the basement tho…:)

#65 yup on 07.28.17 at 9:11 pm

I have yet to find a house at 20% off. Everything so so expensive. In fact prices are going higher. And more homes are selling off realtor.ca now. Are you certain prices will continue to decrease? Or will I miss another boat again if a tiny savings before they go up again.

…………

20% off a $1,500,000 house makes it $1,200,000. LOL

Canadians are screwed. Most will rent for life

Why is renting being screwed? — Garth

#66 Sidera on 07.28.17 at 9:12 pm

Such misinformation recommending to buy Canadian stocks on the eve of a housing crisis. How can you type that with a straight face?

The tsx has such a high correlation to home prices in Canada. If housing retraces, then the banks are next. The big 5 stock charts look ugly. More selling to continue.

This blog does not recommend buying individual stocks. BTW the TSX has a low correlation to residential housing. And the banks are just fine. — Garth

#67 Where's The Money Guido? on 07.28.17 at 9:19 pm

DELETED

#68 choptstix on 07.28.17 at 9:21 pm

”CRA Targets Speculators of Vancouver Real Estate”
http://vancitycondoguide.com/cra-targets-speculators-vancouver-real-estate/

#69 young & foolish on 07.28.17 at 9:29 pm

“If Canada is doing so great, then why is the TSX performing so poorly so far this year.”

TSX never really goes up (only seems to grow if you add dividends)

2016 performance was double-digit. — Garth

#70 young & foolish on 07.28.17 at 9:39 pm

“Statistics Canada. Are these not the same people who tell us year after year that inflation is 1% while everything that I buy goes up 3-4%?”

Have you checked the price of a 2 x 4 lately ?

#71 dr. talc on 07.28.17 at 9:42 pm

#22 Contrary Canadian on 07.28.17 at 7:26 pm
Blog Dogs! I need your advice on a real estate transaction!

I’m helping my mom, who’s in her 70s, sell our 50 year old family home on an acreage in Langley BC after my dad passed away earlier this year. We just listed it earlier this week, first open house is tomorrow and our realtor has set an offer date of Tuesday for offers, as these guys like to do to create possible bidding wars.

We’ve had a bully offer today that expires at 11am tomorrow, just before the first open house is scheduled to start and I have a few concerns, so would love the advance of blog dogs who’ve been through this wringer many times.

Details (numbers slightly fudged for privacy reasons but representative):

– $1.55M – Assessed (last July)
– $2.195M- List price
– Bully offer – $2.2M with $200k deposit and no conditions, plus a flexible close date that we have some leeway over – expires tomorrow
– Just found out that another buyer’s agent will be coming to personally present another bully offer later tonight

Concerns

– Our realtor has disclosed to us that he wrote the offer on behalf of the buyers, but is not “double-ending” it and is only representing us as the seller, which the buyers have supposedly agreed to

– His feedback is that he thinks it’s a fair offer and he’s encouraging us to take it, saying he doesn’t think there’s a lot of upside from here should we go to offer day and it’s a clean (no subjects) offer.

– To be fair to him, he’s also said he thinks our list price is very fair and doesn’t see a lot of down side to rolling the dice and waiting for offer other than the uncertainty (my mom’s very stressed about everything these days)

– I asked about the buyer agent portion of the sales commission (46% of total sales commission would normally go to buyer’s agent) and he’s saying that since there is no buyer’s agent, they are entitled to the commission themselves, since they wrote the offer

– Since other potential offers we might get on offer day are likely to come from buyers using another agent, he’d make a lot more money enabling a bully offer if we accept now, so I’m a bit concerned his advice may be tainted (if we got $2.5M on offer day, he’d make about 60% the commission he would on the bully offer even though we’d get $300k more) – he said that’s not influencing his advice but is also not willing to waive the buyer’s agent commission.

– Secondary but of interest – Offer is being made by 3 separate Chinese individuals (all men, none of them with the same family name) and they’ve listed their address on the offer as “care of Remax” – so they’re not disclosing if they’re local or not – this is Langley, where according to the media and realt estate boards, there is supposedly little to no hot Asian money, hmmm

Questions

– What are your thoughts about whether or not the realtor should waive the buyer’s commission? I’m actually less worried about it in terms of the net $ to my mom and more worried that it taints his advice to her. He commented that he’s not having any problems making his car payments, but the difference is more like a whole car

– If you were me and if the second bully offer isn’t substantially different/better, would you advise my mom to wait out the weekend and go to offer day? Why or why not? I realize a lot of this is dependent on personal situations, etc. but I’m curious what others think from their perspective.

– For interest’s sake – shouldn’t the buyer provide details of their address on the contract of purchase and sale? Is it actually okay to just use “Care of” a real estate brokerage? I thought there were some attempts to track offshore purchasers and collect the 15% foreign buyers tax (which is applicable in Langley). I’m sure when they register title they’ll have to put something in but seems like the paper trail starts here.

Looking forward to your thoughts and advice!!!

my thoughts are i don’t believe your story

#72 young & foolish on 07.28.17 at 9:42 pm

“2016 performance was double-digit. — Garth”

I must be missing something … it’s up 500 points since this time last year!

#73 Spock on 07.28.17 at 9:43 pm

#21 Banned Canadian Millenial

Did I not tell you couple of days to not say anything. Just read and learn – it will help you in life later on.

>>> If you guys saw the harmless post that got me banned, even you would admit Garth was in the wrong.<<<

and no Garth was not wrong. The only wrong thing Garth did was to tolerate you for as long as he did (thereby making us suffer in the process also).

#74 joblo on 07.28.17 at 9:47 pm

Things to do next week:
Send Justin Trudeau and Bill Morneau congratulations for the epic economic growth under their watch.
Way to go!

#75 TSX on 07.28.17 at 9:50 pm

“If Canada is doing so great, then why is the TSX performing so poorly so far this year.”

TSX never really goes up (only seems to grow if you add dividends)

———-

10 yr performance (DIVIDENDS in );

3.89%

truly unreal.

Come back when you learn about rebalancing. — Garth

#76 LOL on 07.28.17 at 10:01 pm

Come back when you learn about rebalancing. — Garth

……

just posting its 10 yr average Garth, you mad :)

3.89% ..a WHOPPING 3.89%. Anyone who was weighted in this index , say 20%, has dramatically crushed returns as compared to the S&P. Just facts

Amateurs chase returns. Seldom works. Just facts. — Garth

#77 people are Strange on 07.28.17 at 10:02 pm

You dumb asses! When a market goes way past affordability, what’s going to push it up????? Really!!!
Do the math! It’s very simple. Speculators have to rely on the general populace keeping it going. Guess what? They can’t!!!

#78 neo on 07.28.17 at 10:04 pm

#69 young & foolish on 07.28.17 at 9:29 pm
“If Canada is doing so great, then why is the TSX performing so poorly so far this year.”

TSX never really goes up (only seems to grow if you add dividends)

2016 performance was double-digit. — Garth

Garth,

That is 2016, in 2017 I got to admit that the TSX has been anemic. Whatever our GDP is the TSX is just shrugging it off. I did rotate one of my portfolio’s in the beginning of the year to heavier weighted to Maple but it hasn’t performed well at all. We will see what the rest of the year brings.

#79 Fish on 07.28.17 at 10:06 pm

indurance that Hot Dog has, good Dog!!

#80 Al on 07.28.17 at 10:12 pm

From the papers today, Trudeau does not like the Bank of Canada’s rate increases – will make it harder for Wynne and him to carry those massive deficits.

#81 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.28.17 at 10:12 pm

Bingo for you young man.
……………………………….

#59 Ret on 07.28.17 at 8:56 pm
Statistics Canada. Are these not the same people who tell us year after year that inflation is 1% while everything that I buy goes up 3-4%?

I believe in the Tooth Fairy and Santa more than Statistics Canada. Time will tell what’s real shine in the economy and what’s just shinola.

#82 Mark on 07.28.17 at 10:23 pm

“The tsx has such a high correlation to home prices in Canada. If housing retraces, then the banks are next. The big 5 stock charts look ugly. More selling to continue”

A simple look at the TSX over the past decade (flat, minimal returns), and the housing market (significant gains from 2008 until the 2013 apex) should easily disabuse you of that notion.

The big-5 banks, BTW, in the 1990s, when the housing market went down considerably, averaged a 300%+ return for their owners. An anecdote I like to often give is that a typical (25%) downpayment in 1990, invested in TSE index funds, rather than housing at prices at the time was, a decade later, with a combination of equity appreciation, and housing depreciation, sufficient to pay for an equivalent house in cash.

#83 Capt. Serious on 07.28.17 at 10:37 pm

Man, I’m happy we didn’t overextend ourselves when we bought a place. Rocking 2.59 until after 2020, nowhere near the GTA or lower mainland madness, and less than half of our net worth is in real estate. Loving the preferreds I picked up through 2016 and in early 2017.
Also, lately is a good demonstration of why one should keep bond duration short.

#84 Cdn Mom on 07.28.17 at 10:38 pm

#18 Nothing Burger on 07.28.17 at 7:06 pm

I went for a pre-approval at Scotia this week and discussed in detail the 2% stress test. According to my banker, this new 2% stress test will be a non issue just like the 5 year qualifying at the fixed rate changes last Fall.
Why? Scotia has already been doing the stress tests for for those new buyers seeking insured and uninsured loans. Been doing it for some time.
……………

I can back this up, and have mentioned it before.

Until June 1, I had 4 mortgages with Scotia…my home (2003), my soon-to-be home (waterfront/rec property) (2015),and two rental properties (2012 and 2014). Every single mortgage initiation qualified (stress-tested) on the 5 year posted rate. Every single initiation required income documentation up the ying yang. No shortcuts at my Scotia branch, and two of the four required out-of-branch approval. Two were insured, two were not (min. 20% down required for rental properties, no CMHC allowed).

Proof of downpayment origin was also required. We were cashing in a piddly little childhood life insurance policy as the down on the rec property, and had to get documentation from the life co. to prove that.

Scotia seems to dot and cross everything, and none of these mortgages were over $150,000.

#85 45north on 07.28.17 at 10:52 pm

Willy H: Lot’s of very pale folks yapping around the water cooler are saying that the Toronto market will quickly move up in September

they’re very pale because they’re very scared

Just imagine the impact on high density urban housing and commercial RE if your entire back-office can work remotely saving millions in fixed overhead costs. It’s already a reality for a handful of progressive well run firms.

A lot can be accomplished over a VPN connection from home. It doesn’t have to be 100%. I mean you don’t have to work from home 100% of the time to have a big effect on your choice of where to live.

As interest rates rise, debt levels in an area will become more important: Low debt levels will make an area more attractive but high debt levels will make an area less attractive.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/06/26/the-unwind/#comment-524545

#86 Zen on 07.28.17 at 11:01 pm

#12 Tony
I have yet to find a house at 20% off. Everything so so expensive. In fact prices are going higher. And more homes are selling off realtor.ca now. Are you certain prices will continue to decrease? Or will I miss another boat again if a tiny savings before they go up again
—————————

Nobody is 100% sure prices are going lower and if it is going lower, how long it will last. People can
only guess based on their belief – that is true with any investment. Yes, if you didn’t buy a few years ago, you’ve missed the boat. My suggestion is to buy if you need/want a house and buy within your means. Hard to pick the bottom! If you are in it for the long term, I think you will do very well. Speculation at this stage is suicidal.

#87 paulo on 07.28.17 at 11:15 pm

# 22
Take the offer: sign back with a 15 day closing and a discount 90 day lease back provision done hope they close !

#88 Smoking Man on 07.28.17 at 11:15 pm

74 joblo on 07.28.17 at 9:47 pm
Things to do next week:
Send Justin Trudeau and Bill Morneau congratulations for the epic economic growth under their watch.
Way to go!
…..
No wage growth, crashing real estate. Carbon tax, TFW, 15 buck an hour min wage, robots coming, for you. Cultural wars and street beatings on the horizon. Just look at Europe.

Boys in JK encouraged too act like girls or Ontario will take your sons away from you. Its the law now.

You’re screwed and won’t realize it till it”s too late for you.

#89 Pete on 07.28.17 at 11:19 pm

I seldom agree with Mark but this time I do. This GDP growth has the word “fake” painting all over it. TSX is at where it was 9 years ago and 6500 points less than Dow. There is no indication that economy is growing.

Nevertheless, I am happy BoC is raising rates, even based on fake data. I hope they can churn out more fake data for more rate hikes.

Besides, Garth’s logic sometime has a problem. He predicts a housing bubble burst, but then “banks are fine”? I assure you, if the GTA Housing Deathwatch turns into a real thing, bank would not be fine.

Ever heard of CHMC insurance? The banks will be fine even if the GTA and YVR blow up, which they will not. — Garth

#90 For those about to flop... on 07.28.17 at 11:23 pm

Here’s the latest effort from the guys down the hall at howmuch…

M43BC

Ranking Top 16 Most Expensive Skyscrapers

1. Abraj Al Bait Towers – Cost to Build: $15 Billion – Saudi Arabia

This building was completed in Mecca, Saudi Arabia in 2012 and boasts a clock-tower and features a hotel.

2. Marina Bay Sand – Cost to Build: $5.7 Billion – Singapore

This building was completed in Singapore in 2010 and is home to a spectacular hotel and retail empire.

3. The Wynn Resorts – Cost to Build: $4.1 Billion – USA

This building was completed in Las Vegas Nevada in 2005 and is the world’s most expensive hotel and casino.

4. The Cosmopolitan – Cost to Build: $3.9 Billion – USA

This hotel was erected in Las Vegas Nevada in 2010 and has two towers, both of which are 603 feet tall.

5. The World Trade Center – Cost to Build: $3.8 Billion – USA

The Freedom tower stands in the place of the former World Trade Center, in New York City, boasting the largest commercial real estate center in the United States.

6. The Venetian Hotel – Cost to Build: $2.4 Billion – China

A hotel and casino was completed in 2005 and owned by the Las Vegas who has a sister hotel in Las Vegas.

7. The Princess Tower – Cost to Build: $2.17 Billion – United Arab Emirates

This residential tower, built in Dubai, was completed in 2012 and is the 24th tallest building in the world.

8. Palazzo Casino – Cost to Build: $2.05 Billion – USA

This casino is the tallest completed building in Las Vegas, representing an Italian Renaissance theme.

9. Taipei 101 – Cost to Build: $1.8 Billion – Taiwan

A building was completed in 2004 in Taipei, Taiwan, and was formerly known as the Taipei World Financial Center.

10. London Glass Shard – Cost to Build: $1.5 Billion – U.K

A 95-story skyscraper completed in London, England in 2012. The building is formerly known as the London Bridge Tower.

11. The Burj Khalifa – Cost to Build: $1.5 Billion – United Arab Emirates

This building was completed in 2009 in Dubai and is the tallest structure in the world.

12. European Central Bank – Cost to Build: $1.25 Billion – Germany

The ECB headquarters was completed in 2013, in Frankfurt, Germany, and it’s where the central bank determines monetary policy for all members of the Eurozone monetary union.

13. The Kingdom Center – Cost to Build: $1 Billion – Saudi Arabia

The building was completed in 2002, in Riyadh, and is the tallest building in the country. The Kingdom Center is the home of a Four Seasons Hotel and residential apartments.

14. Antilia Skyscraper – Cost to Build: $1 Billion – India

The construction on this skyscraper was completed in 2006 in Mumbai, India. This is a private home that boasts 27 stories and is 568 feet tall.

15. The Petronas Twin Towers – Cost to Build: $1 Billion – Malaysia

This building was completed in 1999 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. This was the tallest building in the world from 1998-2004 and is the tallest twin towers.

16. Bank of China – Cost to Build: $1 Billion – China

A state owned Chinese bank and one of the oldest in China. Construction was completed in 1990.

https://howmuch.net/articles/most-expensive-skyscrapers-in-last-30-years

#91 Leo Trollstoy on 07.28.17 at 11:27 pm

Canadian economy strengthening

BoC increasing rates

Deflation nowhere to be seen

Tech booming

All as I’ve foretold

#92 And I Quote on 07.28.17 at 11:31 pm

“I’d take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day.”
Douglas Adams, The Salmon of Doubt

#93 DON on 07.28.17 at 11:37 pm

#32 not going down on 07.28.17 at 7:41 pm

Garth & Don:

Stunning how willfully blind (or ignorant) people are to monetary policy. — Garth
*****************************

Stunning is putting it lightly. This person must have just graduated from high school and I can forgive him/her for not understanding history or having no knowledge of it.
*****************************

Actually I have 2 degrees and I understand enough about monetary policy to have an opinion on it that is at least as good as yours. With all do respect to both of you, it appears that I have more claim to being more right over the last 10 years than either one of you who claim the sky is falling. Outside of yvr condos are going up like gangbusters with completion dates 2-3 years out as inventory can’t cope with demand. Say what you want, I talk to people in the field, I see madness as it is with my boots on the ground. Wait until the dead of winter to buy this year and get things for slightly more (or the same) then they were in the spring of 2017.

This pressure you see is coming from A. people needing to live in urban areas where jobs are B. Global flow of capitol to our lovely country C. Population growth in urban areas from immigration or people moving to urban centers. YVR will always be king.

Don, put this little tidbit in that diary you keep by your bed (the one with the girlish lock and key where you write in each night grinning and licking your lips, wishing doom and gloom on the world):

5 years from now.
1. Interest rates in the 4-6% range (max). People making their payments.
2. House prices at the same (or higher) levels anywhere near the important cities.
3. Debt eaten up by inflation, modest housing gains, economic gains, and population gains.
4. Debt at new “all-time” levels.
5. A new class of “owners” and “renters” as is the case in Europe where many rent for life.
6. People on this blog still talking about a housing crash.
*********************

Dear Diary,

Today, I met a person who ‘online’ who made it known the he? has two degrees. I know…rare right? He didn’t say if he had any actual experience. I am so impressed with the two degrees yet I despair that he is only interested in speaking about a 10 year period, I assume in which he was studying for his two degrees. Dear dear diary he mocked our relationship as he needs to belittle his opponents to support his lack of knowledge and inability to apply any knowledge in an unbiased manner.

Reality is not doom and gloom…it is reality. Take your participation badges (degrees) and grow up.

I also have the ability to work from home part time – which allows me to live more rural areas. I have a friend that works from home all the time. Their is a push to do this – cost saving for facilities etc.

Start listening more – apparently neither of your degrees had a logical thinking component.

Degrees (schooling give you knowledge) the rest is learned and practiced. By the way I have two degrees and two diplomas you smug little man child.

#94 TnT on 07.28.17 at 11:47 pm

#51 Smoking Man on 07.28.17 at 8:31 pm

In the cross hairs. Straight white men. Reason? They are the true risistance.

Drifting closer to being a Nazi…

You Trump Scrubs have no idea how history is repeating itself.

Old days it was coffee shop chatter on nationalism against Britains globalization of Europe that drifted German society into Nazism.

Now it’s social media statements against Globalization that capture the same sentiments and move the needle.

Watch Trump give his speech at the Boy Scouts rally and then look up any Nazi Hitler youth rallies.

#95 Justin Beaver on 07.28.17 at 11:47 pm

The desperation of realtors and speculators in the comments section is palpable.

Nobody can be absolutely sure what will happen but methinks they protest too much.

#96 Raging Ranter on 07.28.17 at 11:57 pm

How about we pass the hat around and get Banned Canadian Millennial laid? Only pent up sexual frustration would cause one to obsess over some deleted posts.

#97 april on 07.29.17 at 12:19 am

#77 – but condos continue to increase or so it appears?

#98 Tony on 07.29.17 at 12:21 am

Re: #12 Tony the Gino on 07.28.17 at 6:53 pm

Try Newmarket, Vaughan or King City.

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.29.17 at 12:22 am

Well dawgs.
It could be worse…..

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jul/28/ive-only-just-got-it-200000-ferrari-wrecked-in-m1-crash&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjQr92h0q3VAhXjilQKHR-0AmYQqQIIGTAA&usg=AFQjCNH9-yQXssEm6k6GeJl7nebfXUrkYg

#100 Fake News Again on 07.29.17 at 12:23 am

#215 DON on 07.28.17 at 5:36 pm
#194 Fake News Again on 07.28.17 at 3:31 pm

No crash. At least not in the next 5 years. Modest price increases, higher interest rates. Yes, it get’s worse if you haven’t bought.

Stunning how willfully blind (or ignorant) people are to monetary policy. — Garth

___________________

Monetary policy that has barely budged in ten years….
**************************

“Monetary policy that has barely budged in ten years….”

Could that be due to a nasty Financial crisis…? Even with the power of google people still remain in the dark left to believe only their thoughts.
_____________________________

And uh…….what exactly has changed in the last ten years? Nothing from what most of us that use Google can see. Unless of course you believe all the fake numbers coming from the Fed and Wall Street.

#101 Tony on 07.29.17 at 12:28 am

Re: #89 Pete on 07.28.17 at 11:19 pm

Just like I said on this blog about a week ago growth would pickup in Canada. Most of it is coming from the people renovating their homes in the GTA to try to sell them. Not all of it is fake just temporary.

#102 Cloudy on 07.29.17 at 12:30 am

#13 Dave on 07.28.17 at 6:54 pm
The NDP/Green BC party is begun reviewing housing data.Horgan sledge hammer is going to be epic. Question is when they want to time it. My guess in September the winter blues will start early.

——————————————————–

My understanding is the NDP/Green alliance has really softened their tone on deflating the bubble. Although I see Eby as a decent MLA, he seems to be grinding his campain plans transmission into reverse. They seem to have backed off on the foreign buyer tax and other anti bubble initiatives. My guess is they will put a bunch of money into subsidized housing projects further pushing the middle-class downwards and not helping the housing affordability of everyday average Joe Blow

#103 Lead Paint on 07.29.17 at 1:10 am

#93 DON on 07.28.17 at 11:37 pm
LOL classic! You should publish your diary. Ask Smoking Man for his agent’s contact info.

#104 Freedom First on 07.29.17 at 1:20 am

#65 Why is renting being screwed?-Garth
…………………………………………………………………..
4 reasons.

1) Herd is brainwashed
2) Herd can’t think
3) Because of 1&2, herd hates/cannot/will not see the truth.
4) RE we’re different insanity virus is world wide.

In my life I have bought and lived in 2 houses.

People have asked me when I buy a house why I have done so now that houses aren’t worth anything.

People have asked me when I sell a house why did I sell the house when they only go up in price.

I never explain myself.
Not interested in arguing with insanity.

Freedom First
Master of Freedomonics.
Its my life

#105 Freedom First on 07.29.17 at 1:27 am

Smoking Man

5***** Posts by you on world wide cultural wars/attacks going on right now. You are right. Thank you for having the balls to say the truth.

Fan #33

#106 SoggyShorts on 07.29.17 at 1:58 am

I don’t understand why everyone is crapping on the TSX.
Sure, in the last 10 years it hasn’t done great, but isn’t that kinda cherry picking? I know 10 years is a nice round number, but in march 2019 will you also be saying how well it has done in the last 10 years? (right now we’re 100% higher than march 2006)

#107 SoggyShorts on 07.29.17 at 1:59 am

#94 SoggyShorts on 07.29.17 at 1:58 am
(right now we’re 100% higher than march 2006)*

*2009 not 2006

#108 A Yank in BC on 07.29.17 at 2:22 am

#37 VI Update on 07.28.17 at 7:49 pm
“The ferry line ups are miles long..”

Hey genius.. check the calendar, it’s late July, height of the tourist season. Lots of RV’s make for long lines at ferry terminals. Happens this time every year. But these people go home when their vacation is over. Thank goodness.. they go home.

#109 M-cube on 07.29.17 at 4:12 am

Not sure how many are going to read my post since it’s 4AM and late in the game. (yes, I’m like my President Trump, I like hitting the social media when I get up to take a piss)

China’s real estate market is a ponzi scheme. It’s credit crisis will eventually come, this is a guarantee. But will it arrive before doing irreparable damage to Toronto and Vancouver’s housing markets?

Unfortunately, I don’t think so. So much money is flowing out of China through front and back channels into Canada, Australia, USA, S.Korea, etc. So long as China’s ponzi scheme survives these foreign countries will feel the pressure on housing assets.

Yet rest assured, China’s real estate ponzi scheme will collapse, but by then the landscape of Toronto and Vancouver will likely have been terribly scarred with no chance of complete healing.

#110 Dan.t on 07.29.17 at 4:18 am

What a joke..

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/surging-real-estate-makes-2-3m-for-b-c-cabinet-as-affordability-worsens-1.2751578

“Surging real estate values added $2.3 million to B.C. cabinet ministers’ personal wealth this year alone, as the government says coming measures to ease housing affordability won’t include any that lower prices.”

Not that there is anything wrong with government elected official wanting to own 3 or 4 or more houses but it is representative of all of what is going on in BC. I bet those stats are representative of all BC, huge percentage of locals owing multiple “investment” properties..no wonder there is no supply- it gets bought up with cheap money and a guaranteed by government officials that they will do all in their power to make sure it never goes down!

“A review of disclosure documents by CTV News shows that of 83 sitting MLAs, all but three own property, or about 96 per cent. Statistics Canada says about 70 per cent of Canadians own their own homes. Twenty-one MLAs own a second Victoria home, and 37 own recreational or investment properties. At least seven declared rental income.”

I bet most bought around the time they knew all these “goose real estate measures” or government policies were going to be introduced. You don’t think Christy Clark or

“Mike De Jong, who is in charge of affordability measures promised in the upcoming budget, owns or has a stake in eight properties, many apartments in Abbotsford, whose value rose some $2300 to $1.2 million”… knew where developers were going to develop or that foreign ownership was going to be increased, or they didn’t have the inside scoop about what was going to happen to the real estate market?

They have used the system and inside knowledge to their own advantage. Good for them. But to make statements like the following is such joke and the exact reason why thing will be a long time changing in Vancouver (so get used to it):

“At a press conference Monday, the premier said she’s not interested in any measure that would lower prices. “Everybody who owns a home doesn’t want government to go in and make that home less valuable,” Clark said. “Most people have a mortgage on that home.” “There are lots of things we can be doing that don’t hurt existing homeowners,” she added, saying she wants to see increased supply of new homes to buy.””

So I guess the plan is to make sure prices which are considered extremely unaffordable, the 3rd most expensive on the planet, don’t drop at all because we can’t mess with peoples “hard earned equity”. ??

Why can’t anyone make statements like that about my stock investments…I guess I should just buys stuff on massive leverage if the government is going to do all in it’s power to ensure I never ever lose money on it. Great deal.

So if prices aren’t supposed to come down, because they have to do all in their power to make sure of that…then how is affordability going to be achieved? Oh, right, Christy Clark will give you $37000 so you can just get 2 mortgages as a 27 year old trying to get into the market and get started building a life and family….nice. Thank god she is out!

But seriously, reading comments like that can someone explain how to make BC affordable without touching price?

The only way I see is incomes to rise 10-15% a year, year over year to keep up with what’s going on. I’m sure those making the rules can implement those kind of wage increases for their buddies, but the private sector, not a chance. Wages haven’t moved for 20 years and yet houses have tripped, or quadrupled in the last 15 years.

I guess I have been outside of Canada too long. When I’m back to visit, I just get confused, feel extremely poor because I don’t own a house and a few “investment” condo’s and don’t understand how people can live based on what they earn. But it seems to be working out great for everyone in BC and lower mainland, actually all over BC. Hope it keeps up.

I hope prices double again when I come back to visit next time.

Lets see what the NDP come up with. I just hope BC voters remember who put the average housing out of reach for average locals.

#111 Oft deleted not politically correct and maligned stock picker on 07.29.17 at 4:40 am

I hate to be a party pooper but I remain convinced that the recent ‘surprise’ numbers showing vastly unanticipated numbers out of all economic sectors in Canada and Europe are a social engineering ploy to keep people from revolting because of the virtual collapse of western civilization under the failing globalist leadership. I can’t avoid the conclusion the coincidence of the Globalist demise following the election of Trump by is ….well….. too coincidental and ‘surprising’ to be real. Things went from really awful to spectacular in a big hurry just when the globalist ship was sinking. Too many government economists circling the wagons for my taste. I don’t believe a word of it…..especially the Trudeau/Brussels clique.

#112 Adrian on 07.29.17 at 6:12 am

I’m pretty sure I can explain both 1) the GDP numbers and 2) the behaviour of the TSX in 2016 & 2017.

1) GDP is growing because the federal government is running a deficit large enough to hold their debt-to-GDP constant. (Deficits are one of three ways to increase the supply of money in an economy. The other two are i. running a trade surplus, which outsources domestic money creation, & ii. commercial banks creating more new loans than they take back in repayments.) This adds money to private bank accounts, which then becomes part of the turnover of existing money. Since companies are largely demand constrained at the moment – not labour/resource constrained – this extra circulation of money is adding to total demand and growing the economy without inflating input costs. Professor Steve Keen explains the importance of sovereign deficits quite clearly in his lectures on YouTube.

Canada is also running a small trade deficit at the moment, which should slowly devalue our dollar and create inflation in import prices. However, the Central Bank wants to keep lifting interest rates away from their rock-bottom levels, and that should stave off the inflation boogeyman so long as GDP growth keeps driving interest rates higher.

2) Also, the TSX is weighted heavily towards commodities, right? Well, China turned the credit spigot off in 2015 and then back on in 2016 because of the stock market scare. Now, they’re dialing credit back again this year, which I read recently is putting downward pressure on worldwide commodity prices. Thus, we get a stock market that is sucking even as our consumer economy is blowing [up]…

#113 Poleton Ridgeway on 07.29.17 at 7:11 am

Garth and Mark,
Why was oil up sharply today but TSX Oil Stocks down. Can’t figure that one out, was it the high Cdn dollor or Christy Clark resigning that took the wind out of the Oily Sails? And Garth, it’s not too late yet to add more to the preffies? Thanks Blog Dogs and Hot Dogs!

#114 TSX check up on 07.29.17 at 7:21 am

#23 zee on 07.28.17 at 7:27 pm
Hey Garth

If Canada is doing so great, then why is the TSX performing so poorly so far this year.

#53 I emailed my financial adviser today to have lunch with him next week to ask the same. Canada is booming (?), but the TSX is going down. WTF.

*******************

possible reasons?

– TSX is resource heavy, supply outstripping demand
– Liquidity is rotating from equities into fixed income

Rates are rising in the US and Canada, soon in Europe. Market seems to be pricing this in when looking at the exchange rates.

This May at the G7 meeting when Trump made the trip to Sicily, he gave the marching orders to start raising rates across the board and to depreciate the Dollar. Trump has been saying over and over again the USD is too high and he’s chastised NAFTA, Canada and the Euros. Something has / had to give.

Question is will US under Trump carry the same weight in the world as it did under Obama / Bush etc before? Seems that despite all the alleged scandals, the bankers are acting in unison. BIS oversees them all and their agenda is clear for higher rates.

Only difference is in the delivery at the central bank level. Poloz made a complete 180 after Sicily / May which proves my theory. Draghi is sweating bullets right now because he HAS to comply the same.

Watch the fireworks when rates normalize. Bankers at every level rely on only one thing. That their commodity which is money will retain credibility. In order to have cred. they have to be able to afford higher rates after the end of the “emergency” rate cycle.

T2 is too self involved to get this but in order to save face, he will pretend he has any clout. Nobody cares what little T2 says or does inside the banking world.

Garth has more insight and better understanding than most analysts. He can only share so much. What little he does share makes for good entertainment so we can enjoy the ride up!

#115 re., Leo Trollstoy on 07.29.17 at 7:26 am

you also foretold a healthy TSX. Did you forget to include that one?

it’s in the red. Sorry.

#116 ancodia on 07.29.17 at 7:34 am

#64 not me on 07.28.17 at 9:09 pm

Soooooo glad to be renting right now!!

…………..

proud owner. Debt free….may rent the basement tho…:)

…..

congratulations. Why don’t you go chip out a couple bricks from the side of your house, sell them & go buy yourself a nice dinner to celebrate your achievement.

#117 Smoking Man on 07.29.17 at 8:05 am

#94 TnT on 07.28.17 at 11:47 pm
#51 Smoking Man on 07.28.17 at 8:31 pm

In the cross hairs. Straight white men. Reason? They are the true risistance.

Drifting closer to being a Nazi…

You Trump Scrubs have no idea how history is repeating itself.

Old days it was coffee shop chatter on nationalism against Britains globalization of Europe that drifted German society into Nazism.

Now it’s social media statements against Globalization that capture the same sentiments and move the needle.

Watch Trump give his speech at the Boy Scouts rally and then look up any Nazi Hitler youth
……

I don’t see it the same way. If anything Anifa are the brown shirts, they dont debate, just phycotic aggression fighting for a cause they know nothing about.

Now evidance of globalists demasculation of our sons is not that obvious till you visit a JK class.

Before you respond and make an ass of yourself,
lose your idiolog bias and Google the UN agenda 2030. Learn something usefull.

#118 SW on 07.29.17 at 8:21 am

#104 Freedom First on 07.29.17 at 1:20 am

People have asked me when I buy a house why I have done so now that houses aren’t worth anything.

This is the answer to those viewers who have been plaintively asking, “When is it time to buy?”

Buy when no-one else* wants anything to do with the asset class.

*Except for FF, ffs. Not that I endorse any of his ranty output, but he seems to understand the “buy low” concept.

#119 NoName on 07.29.17 at 8:30 am

I know about richard only what i read on web and see on the youtube, (definitely no books red) Is it me or this current president is using same method as him.

Did firing everyone who opposes what he does and hiring who is willing to support him no mater is it wrong or wright.

But new guy have something going for him that bypass cheap of stuff, and he surrounded him self with dudes that cant wait to meet their maker…

Hey smoking man, your cousin just got fired from wh and there are installing whole bunch of new desks to add more lawyers to wing, and you no comment. I tought you are all for small gov. and saving humanity.

What am i missing???

#120 NoName on 07.29.17 at 8:35 am

addendum to my privious post

and i tought that Hillary is croocked… oh the horror

#121 Hogtown on 07.29.17 at 8:42 am

I thought that when the real estate market hit the skids the economy was going to buckle?

Anyone with a lick of common sense would recognize the rhetoric espoused on this blog. If the Canadian economy is booming housing declines will be tapered. If the US continues to struggle along with sub 2% annualized growth then continued rate increases will be subdued.

The most likely scenario is that the Canadian real estate market is now more balanced and no longer a sellers market and we should also realize that there is a new normal for interest rates. The US with their rate increases is already seeing alarming defaults in the auto industry, student loans etc. But we would never see that balanced argument pointed out on this blog.

#122 Deplorable waste of space dust on 07.29.17 at 9:02 am

#88 Smoking Man on 07.28.17 at 11:15 pm

74 joblo on 07.28.17 at 9:47 pm
Things to do next week:
Send Justin Trudeau and Bill Morneau congratulations for the epic economic growth under their watch.
Way to go!
…..
No wage growth, crashing real estate. Carbon tax, TFW, 15 buck an hour min wage, robots coming, for you. Cultural wars and street beatings on the horizon. Just look at Europe.

Boys in JK encouraged too act like girls or Ontario will take your sons away from you. Its the law now.

You’re screwed and won’t realize it till it”s too late for you.
..
You’re a useful idiot for the Koch brothers… money backers of the trumpoholic teabaggers.

#123 Jim on 07.29.17 at 9:08 am

I live along Lake huron where detached houses away from the lake cost 200K. I would really like to see some data on vacation home purchases. According to real estate agents in the area the biggest demographic of purchasers are 35-50 year olds. I ask myself where are they getting 800K to buy waterfront. I think answer is, people from Toronto are leveraging there house equity for the down payment. If this is the case there will be trouble serious trouble in the near future. 400K in house equity and you use 200k to buy a vacation property, that house in Toronto just lost 20% over the last 3 months. Guess what that person is close to being insolvent, interest rates start to tick up and that fixed mortgage resets.

Trouble lies ahead and it could spread across Ontario.

#124 TurnerNation on 07.29.17 at 9:25 am

Buy your own island. Was $219k, now 199k.
Real value is 59k imo. Zoning allows for covered picnic hut. Whizz off the dock.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18282257/ISLAND-H-ISL-LEONARD-LAKE-Ontario-P0B1J0

#125 re., ancodia on 07.29.17 at 9:26 am

congratulations. Why don’t you go chip out a couple bricks from the side of your house, sell them & go buy yourself a nice dinner to celebrate your achievement.

………

bad morning?

portfolio is 7 figures. And im a deplorable- income is 1% group. T2 is after me

#126 TnT on 07.29.17 at 9:37 am

#117 Smoking Man on 07.29.17 at 8:05 am

I don’t see it the same way. If anything Anifa are the brown shirts, they dont debate, just phycotic aggression fighting for a cause they know nothing about.

Anifa = Post Modern Communism. It’s just the fringe on the horseshoe spectrum where the Alt Left is close to the Alt Right.

Don’t be a sucker and move to the Alt Right because of the Alt Left.

Now evidance of globalists demasculation of our sons is not that obvious till you visit a JK class.

You are mistaking Empathy with Emasculation.
Our society is failing our young sons.
It is healthy and acceptable to be a dancer, explore the arts and read instead of sports.
More experienced well rounded boys make better fathers.

Before you respond and make an ass of yourself,

Comedy gold with the statement coming from you.

I’ll let it slide as “You can’t offend what you can’t bend”

lose your idiolog bias and Google the UN agenda 2030. Learn something usefull.

2 Part Answer:

Part # 1 – Your reliance on Google instead of a Library is the start of our ignorance.

Part # 2 – UN Agenda 2030 Vision Statement (easily Googled for you).

UN Agenda 2030 – Vision Statement

We envisage a world free of poverty, hunger, disease and want, where all life can thrive. We envisage a world free of fear and violence. A world with universal literacy. A world with equitable and universal access to quality education at all levels, to health care and social protection, where physical, mental and social well-being are assured. A world where we reaffirm our commitments regarding the human right to safe drinking water and sanitation and where there is improved hygiene; and where food is sufficient, safe, affordable and nutritious. A world where human habitats are safe, resilient and sustainable and where there is universal access to affordable, reliable and sustainable energy.

***

It’s simple old fashion Good & Evil.

You are stuck on calling out the BS that goes along with any movement that creates waves and forces change.

Yes there will be capitalist entrepreneurs who take advantage of this change and try to cash in (i.e. Climate Change) but as long as we trend towards less suffering instead of more suffering then pick a side and push for change.

Are your actions increasing or decreasing suffering?

#127 lol on 07.29.17 at 9:40 am

Boys in JK encouraged too act like girls or Ontario will take your sons away from you. Its the law now.

………….

go for a walk, enjoy the sunshine. Too much thinking can lead to paranoia.

#128 LS in Arbutus on 07.29.17 at 9:45 am

FLOP – from my ‘hood.

2911 W 23 AVE.

Bought Aug 2014 $1.887
Bought Jun 2015 $2.228
Bought Jan 2016 $2.828

Now asking $3.000

Assessed $3.131

Most things in the ‘hood seem to be selling for at least 10% below assessed. So this will be loss, even before transaction costs.

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwME1VSA==

http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?areatitle=&ARPK=&ComID=&agentid=&MLS=R2192355&rowc=6&rowp=6&BCD=GV&imdp=9&RSPP=5&AIDL=27&SRTB=P_Price&ERTA=False&MNAGE=0&MXAGE=200&MNBT=0&MNBD=0&PTYTID=5&MNPRC=700000&MXPRC=200000000&SCTP=RS

#129 maxx on 07.29.17 at 9:47 am

#5 Ian on 07.28.17 at 6:39 pm

“Does anyone have any info on how this coming 2% higher interest rate stress test will affect mortgage approvals? ie how many might be rejected? I’m amazed I haven’t seen an article analysing this, but I’m sure one of you will have something for me…”

How many is largely irrelevant. I’d be much more interested in knowing if current parameters for the stress test will be adjusted upwards with rising rates……

RE industry fubar on the horizon, with economic recovery not long afterwards.

#130 A Reply to #119 NoName on 07.29.17 at 9:56 am

“What am [I] missing?”

AutoCorrect and Grammarly.

#131 MF on 07.29.17 at 10:03 am

#114 TSX Checkup;

It does seem a little suspicious that things went from horrible and zirp is necessary, to rosy and we need to hike in a few months.

I think the ECB is the most hesitant to raise rates, because the cracks in the economy there are hardest to hide maybe?

We will see.

MF

#132 TurnerNation on 07.29.17 at 10:03 am

#62 TSX – lots of stinker IPOs which crashed on TSX lately. Artizia, Freshii.
Potential recession play, GoEasy aka old Easyhome , GSY.TO, just floated convertable debentures. Conversion price off $44, stock is at 27. Seems high.

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.29.17 at 10:17 am

@#123 Jim
“Trouble lies ahead and it could spread across Ontario.”

*******

Yep…. and then, hopefully, BC.

Time for an investigation into BC Liberal cabinet members making policies/Laws that benefitted developers, real estate companies and the like?
All while the self same Liberal cabinet members owned multiple houses and or rental properties…..
No conflict there……..

Its a shame Christy Clark resigned (by email)… in her typically gutless fashion before the real s#*t hits the fan….
Cant wait to see what back door deals were done in the last 6 months of Liberal trough feeding….let alone the last 16 years of rule………

#134 maxx on 07.29.17 at 10:22 am

#8 More $ More Homes on 07.28.17 at 6:45 pm

More $ More Debt Repayment.

The longer the “RE party keeps going”, the more borrowed cash goes to servicing debt. That does nothing to underpin goods and services, the result being that the economy sees slower than normal growth and people are increasingly less rich than they think.

Sorry, your variables for this equation only worked in the past. Oh, and don’t forget industry 4.0, it will mitigate re hubris significantly, given the number of people eliminated from former jobs.

Saving, investing, mobility ad creativity are the new order of the day.

#135 People are Strange on 07.29.17 at 10:29 am

#97
Condos are the only thing the average person or couple can now afford. Wait until they peak (if not already). Wait until they have to start paying condo fees on top of the mortgage.
This is the last gasp from a dying giant!

#136 Ronaldo on 07.29.17 at 10:31 am

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.29.17 at 10:17 am

Its a shame Christy Clark resigned (by email)… in her typically gutless fashion before the real s#*t hits the fan….
Cant wait to see what back door deals were done in the last 6 months of Liberal trough feeding….let alone the last 16 years of rule………
—————————————————————
Agree, and will be interesting to see how many of these bottom feeders put their properties up for sale before the SHTF. Remember, Christy didn’t want to do anything that would cause any loss of people’s equity that they’d already gained. What a joke that was.

People who run for office are not crooks, villains or bottom-feeders. The majority are motivated by a desire for positive change and like all humans (and you) then encounter reality. Some rise about it and become great leaders. Some stumble and fail. But they tried. Meanwhile the rabble sits on the sidelines, passing judgment. Hold your tongue. You sound very small and inconsequential otherwise. — Garth

#137 For those about to flop... on 07.29.17 at 10:49 am

#128 LS in Arbutus on 07.29.17 at 9:45 am
FLOP – from my ‘hood.

2911 W 23 AVE.

Bought Aug 2014 $1.887
Bought Jun 2015 $2.228
Bought Jan 2016 $2.828

Now asking $3.000

Assessed $3.131

Most things in the ‘hood seem to be selling for at least 10% below assessed. So this will be loss, even before transaction costs.

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwME1VSA==

http://www.realtylink.org/prop_search/Detail.cfm?areatitle=&ARPK=&ComID=&agentid=&MLS=R2192355&rowc=6&rowp=6&BCD=GV&imdp=9&RSPP=5&AIDL=27&SRTB=P_Price&ERTA=False&MNAGE=0&MXAGE=200&MNBT=0&MNBD=0&PTYTID=5&MNPRC=700000&MXPRC=200000000&SCTP=RS

//////////////////////////////////

Hey L.S ,wow, straight into the Pink Lemonade first thing in the morning,make sure you brush your teeth!

I will put it in the file ,I might already have it but we’ll see.

I have had to cut back a lot as I no longer have the time,which I’m sure some of the realtors on here are grateful for.

I still check on everything once a week but am not collecting Possible Pinkies anymore as the file got too big and if they are going to go for a sizeable loss hopefully I catch them as they work their way down.

I am working two doors down from one of my 5 million dollar Pink Lemonade cases at the moment and so it is a daily reminder as I get my tools out of my van about what I started last winter.

I will hopefully do a session in a few hours and thanks for your continued help and enjoy your weekend…

M43BC

#138 ancodia on 07.29.17 at 10:50 am

#125 re., ancodia on 07.29.17 at 9:26 am

congratulations. Why don’t you go chip out a couple bricks from the side of your house, sell them & go buy yourself a nice dinner to celebrate your achievement.

………

bad morning?

portfolio is 7 figures. And im a deplorable- income is 1% group. T2 is after me

Be honest with us, do you fall asleep every night staring at a picture of yourself on the night table?

#139 Renter's Revenge! on 07.29.17 at 10:59 am

#96 Raging Ranter on 07.28.17 at 11:57 pm
How about we pass the hat around and get Banned Canadian Millennial laid? Only pent up sexual frustration would cause one to obsess over some deleted posts.

LOL I’m in for a fiver!

#140 Ronaldo on 07.29.17 at 11:09 am

#124 TurnerNation on 07.29.17 at 9:25 am

Buy your own island. Was $219k, now 199k.
Real value is 59k imo. Zoning allows for covered picnic hut. Whizz off the dock.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18282257/ISLAND-H-ISL-LEONARD-LAKE-Ontario-P0B1J0
———————————————————
Or, you could buy this one. Down from 7 million or thereabouts a few years ago. Just out my front door.

https://www.privateislandsonline.com/canada/britishcolumbia/jesse-island

#141 WUL on 07.29.17 at 11:13 am

A rise from the ashes…. (literally).

With the news of Canada’s resurgent GDP growth, it was noted that Alberta leads the pack and it is predicted to continue to do so. Not surprising really with the nags it is running with.

A hefty chunk of that would be the rebuild in Fort McMurray although some call that a false or faux economy as it is, in the main, insurers taking from investments and reserves and paying it out instead of allowing it to benefit shareholders, I suppose. To be recouped from increased premiums of policy holders as all of you pay for the more frequent and violent disasters arising out of climate change.

Oh well, it puts cash in the pockets of tradesmen, labourers and small companies and that is good.

#142 Alwyn on 07.29.17 at 11:30 am

Yet another priceless piece of prose; as delicious as your homemade pies in Belfountain.

#143 Ponzi on 07.29.17 at 11:41 am

#109 M-Cube

Like many here you are misusing the term Ponzi scheme.

Stock markets are not ponzi schemes.
Housing markets are not ponzi schemes.

Both can crash but do not label them ponzi scheme just because prices are inflated.

A ponzi scheme is where fake yield is paid out to early investors from the investment principle sums of later investors.
So there are no profits, yet investment sums are plundered to keep up appearances of profit.

It is like you puting your savings in a high interest account of your bank.
The bank uses your savings to pay interest to other customers.
When you withdraw your savings, it turns out they are gone.
Congrats, you now experienced an actual Ponzi scheme.

#144 Guy in Calgary on 07.29.17 at 12:00 pm

“I can back this up, and have mentioned it before.

Until June 1, I had 4 mortgages with Scotia…my home (2003), my soon-to-be home (waterfront/rec property) (2015),and two rental properties (2012 and 2014). Every single mortgage initiation qualified (stress-tested) on the 5 year posted rate. Every single initiation required income documentation up the ying yang. No shortcuts at my Scotia branch, and two of the four required out-of-branch approval. Two were insured, two were not (min. 20% down required for rental properties, no CMHC allowed).

Proof of downpayment origin was also required. We were cashing in a piddly little childhood life insurance policy as the down on the rec property, and had to get documentation from the life co. to prove that.

Scotia seems to dot and cross everything, and none of these mortgages were over $150,000.”

Sounds like completely standard practice to me (I work at an FI).

#145 InvestorsFriend on 07.29.17 at 12:03 pm

Yes, Virginia, the GDP Increase is Real

For those in doubt that there is a real Canadian economy out there that is on the move and growing, check out rail car loading figures.

https://www.aar.org/data-center/rail-traffic-data

If you click the link the chart you wills see is for the United States. It actually shows rail car loadings in 2017 are running well below 2014 and 2015 although above 2016. This with the U.S. stock market very much at record highs.

But click the “radio” button to choose Canada and you will see rail car loads in 2017 are WAY higher than 2016 and in most weeks higher than 2014 and 2015. Click the different commodities buttons to see which categories of freight are up.

Or check out CN Rail’s Q2 report. There is a nice summary in the first few pages. See the percentage gains in carloads by commodity at page 4. Metals and Minerals up 32% versus Q2 2016.

https://www.cn.ca/-/media/Files/Investors/Investor-Financial-Quarterly/Investor-Financial-Quarterly-2017/Q2/Q2-2017-Quarterly-Review-en.pdf?la=en

The Canadian economy is clearly on the move.

Of course true believers in fake news (and doom) will explain this away.

#146 WUL on 07.29.17 at 12:09 pm

While on the topic of climate change, natural disasters and increasing insurance premiums, I was reminded the other day that I have been present for the two largest natural disasters to hit Canadian cities. I was in Calgary in June 2013 for the flood. I was in Fort Mac for the Horse River Wildfire.

Perhaps it is me. Born under a bad moon perhaps. Maybe best to give me a wide berth.

Fair warning. I’m vacationing in Vancouver Aug 6 – 12.

Any preferences as to type? Pandemic is novel.

#147 NEVER GIVE UP on 07.29.17 at 12:25 pm

#110 Dan.t on 07.29.17 at 4:18 am
What a joke..

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/surging-real-estate-makes-2-3m-for-b-c-cabinet-as-affordability-worsens-1.2751578

“Surging real estate values added $2.3 million to B.C. cabinet ministers’ personal wealth this year alone, as the government says coming measures to ease housing affordability won’t include any that lower prices.”

====================================
As per usual, our Shallow Government sold us out and lead us into oblivion because they personally padded their desperate lives with cash.

Seriously, they are so aggressive that they would damage the whole province and affect the Birth rate in BC (The Lowest in Canada) so they can profit personally. Few of them have Children who are affected unlike the plebs they serve.(Do not serve)

So far the NDP has adopted the only reasonable stance and I am hoping they will implement it. The stance they are adopting is heavily influenced in fairness by Pundits at the Sauder Business school at UBC.

What an ugly, baseless comment. These elected people did not ‘pad their pockets’ since they do not control the housing market. You do through supply and demand and debt. Politicians not having enough children? Maybe that’s why they had the time and energy to get elected, instead of running out to buy Huggies. Life is about choices. — Garth

#148 A Reply to #146 WUL on 07.29.17 at 12:55 pm

“Perhaps it is me. Born under a bad moon perhaps. Maybe best to give me a wide berth.”

I’m surprised the insurance actuaries haven’t figured this out yet! :)

#149 For the one with two degrees on 07.29.17 at 12:55 pm

My friend I don’t really know what type of degrees you have, but i do know this…..

There is a difference between ‘do’ and ‘due’ and between ‘capitol’ and ‘capital’….lol
Google it if you don’t believe me..

Btw…I have only one degree from a serious institution and I am an immigrant myself..and a deplorable and love Donald….Lol

#150 oncebittwiceshy on 07.29.17 at 1:07 pm

>>>>>>>>#110 Dan.t on 07.29.17 at 4:18 am
What a joke..

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/surging-real-estate-makes-2-3m-for-b-c-cabinet-as-affordability-worsens-1.2751578

“Surging real estate values added $2.3 million to B.C. cabinet ministers’ personal wealth this year alone, as the government says coming measures to ease housing affordability won’t include any that lower prices.”<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Uhmm, you do realize that this story is from January of 2016, right???

#151 Oft deleted much maligned not politically correct stock picker on 07.29.17 at 1:11 pm

Sold an increment of preferred shares…..not the etf….to sell into the rally thus far…..very profitable .still have a cart load. Bought more growth laggards ….energy….mostly gas related….telecom……wireless….manufacturing ‘aviation services’…..resource…..and tech…..all maple. It looks like I bought cheap as money is being made in the last few weeks as growth as caught a bid. I figure it’s time for an aggressive look at individual companies that will benefit from an improving North American economy. No etfs of course…… smart razor focus on fundamentals.

#152 Rooskie on 07.29.17 at 1:17 pm

You also advised to have 20% of one’s portfolio in USD… I couldn’t have timed it any worse, a month before the Bank of Canada started all this interest rate hike talk. Down over $2K on currency conversion so far.

Always have 20% in US-denominated securities. I did not advice converting at any moment in time, as this should be a permanent portfolio feature. — Garth

#153 oncebittwiceshy on 07.29.17 at 1:18 pm

>>>>>>18. Nothing burger: “Why? Scotia has already been doing the stress tests for for those new buyers seeking insured and uninsured loans. Been doing it for some time.”<<<<<<<<

Really, because my daughter was asking about mortgages at Scotiabank and they were very concerned with the upcoming OSFI rules. She was told unequivocally that they expect to lose a fair amount of business.

She was then told that she could get around the qualification rules that were in place already by "talking" to her mom and dad or perhaps another lender for a 20% down payment. That way she wouldn't have to qualify at the higher rate.

Sounds like the banks aren't too coordinated or maybe you're simply praying that your investment condos don't sink further. Lots of luck.

#154 Contrary Canadian on 07.29.17 at 1:28 pm

#22 – Result update as promised

Blog dogs – thanks to those who replied, even #71 dr. talc, who didn’t believe me. I don’t blame you dr. talc, I never would have thought the numbers could be so crazy in Langley either.

Our realtor ended up notifying all interested parties that we were considering offers early and we got 4 total offers, all above the asking price. The Chinese buyers with the initial bully offer were also notified and updated their offer, so when we met we were presented with 3 offers total:

1. $2.35M – no subjects – original Chinese bully buyers
2. $2.45M – subject to feasibility, inspection, financing and a bunch of other stuff, plus they wanted to strike the clause preventing assignment – from a local developer
3. $2.5M – subject to financing, inspection – another Chinese buyer through Royal Pacific (a Chinese realtor that mostly does business on Vancouver’s Westside)

We decided to counter the offer from the initial bully and get them to match the highest offer but with no subjects – which they did, so the deal is done, closes in the fall at my mom’s chosen close date.

Final Result

$1.55M – Assessed
$2.195M – Listed
$2.5M – Sold with no subjects – in just 3 days

Based on the negotiation process and alternative offers, I think my concerns about the realtor were maybe exaggerated. He did make his double commission, but I honestly didn’t think the market in Langley was so ridiculously crazy, figured there had to be something fishy going on.

The realtor did tell us they’re seeing a lot more financing deals fall through and the market is slowing in Langley for detached houses (condos still strong), both when we first met prior to listing and again last night.

While I’m extremely happy for my mom, I don’t see how the pricing levels in a middle/low income town like Langley are sustainable and I definitely don’t see how local incomes and even borrowing can have been driving the market. There are very few detached homes available for less than $1M, and in my opinion prices should probably be 50% lower for this market to be even remotely accessible to the people who live and work there.

I do think that some of what has driven this continuing frenzy are people who have cashed out of Vancouver’s higher cost areas and are moving further out to see if they can double down on their gain, but given that 2 out of 3 of the offers we received were from offshore buyers, obviously the higher end of the market has some foreign money flowing into it.

I don’t know when things may revert to something more normal, but when they do, I can’t see how it won’t be ugly. I’m just glad my mom won’t have to go through it, have convinced her to rent an apartment going forward. Even with low interest rates continuing (albeit maybe a bit higher), the income she’ll get from investing the proceeds in addition to her existing pension and other retirement income will allow her to live very well.

#155 Contrary Canadian on 07.29.17 at 1:28 pm

Whoops, just noticed a typo – we got 3 offers in total, not 4.

#156 oncebittwiceshy on 07.29.17 at 1:35 pm

>>>>>>>>>>CDN Mom: “I can back this up, and have mentioned it before.

Until June 1, I had 4 mortgages with Scotia…my home (2003), my soon-to-be home (waterfront/rec property) (2015),and two rental properties (2012 and 2014). Every single mortgage initiation qualified (stress-tested) on the 5 year posted rate. <<<<<<<<<

Wow, my brother in law had the exact opposite experience with Scotiabank. He has purchased 3 properties over the last 4 yrs and 2 of them had 20% down and the other was CMHC.

When I asked about the amount of debt he was taking on he was nonchalant about it and said if the bank wasn't worried, why should he be?

When I asked about stress testing he chuckled.

Yea right, perhaps the amount of time these real estate agents have available now is spent trying to convince Garth's followers that things aren't changing.

You might want to spend more time on Linkedin and find something worthwhile to pay those 4 mortgages. I believe that part of your story.

#157 Roial1 on 07.29.17 at 1:40 pm

We must have moved into an interesting time in education.
Today I have read several “educated” blogs. Each claiming some very large time in school. (degrees up the hoop)

And they still cannot get the difference between THEIR and THERE.

Wonderful. Their English teachers must be from “Lower Sabovia”.

THEIR= people There=places.

TRY, you degree boasters.

#158 not going down on 07.29.17 at 1:45 pm

#93 Don

Dear Diary,

Today, I met a person who ‘online’ who made it known the he? has two degrees. I know…rare right? He didn’t say if he had any actual experience. I am so impressed with the two degrees yet I despair that he is only interested in speaking about a 10 year period, I assume in which he was studying for his two degrees. Dear dear diary he mocked our relationship as he needs to belittle his opponents to support his lack of knowledge and inability to apply any knowledge in an unbiased manner.

Reality is not doom and gloom…it is reality. Take your participation badges (degrees) and grow up.

I also have the ability to work from home part time – which allows me to live more rural areas. I have a friend that works from home all the time. Their is a push to do this – cost saving for facilities etc.

Start listening more – apparently neither of your degrees had a logical thinking component.

Degrees (schooling give you knowledge) the rest is learned and practiced. By the way I have two degrees and two diplomas you smug little man child.
********************************************

Unfortunately, your dear diary entries are not nearly as factual as the stuff coming out of Meg Cabot’s publishers, or even Georgia Nicolson’s–nor as eloquent. I suggest you go back and re-read the Princess Diary series. . .and also “Startled by His Fury Shorts”, and maybe “And Then He Ate My Boy Entrancers” so you have some much needed verbiage to add to the poppycock and bunkham you spout forth on this blog. Maybe hit up Zerohedge.com for some more facts too.

BTW, you were the one calling me uneducated and then detailing your degrees and diplomas. Let’s be clear here, you picked on me, so don’t go calling me smug for demonstrating that I have a great deal more education than you (glaringly obvious).

But forget about all that. . .honestly, ear mark this blog and come back to it in 5 years and see my predictions come true. Or send Garth your email and let’s bet $500 on it.

PS. Of course you work from home. The office doesn’t like their male employees showing up wearing lipstick and speaking in falsetto.

#159 Ronaldo on 07.29.17 at 1:57 pm

”The majority are motivated by a desire for positive change and like all humans (and you) then encounter reality. Some rise about it and become great leaders. Some stumble and fail. But they tried.” Garth
——————————————————————
Agree. I stumbled on my comment. Deserved the scolding. Your statement also applies to other than politicians. It can apply to those in leadership positions in corporations as well.

#160 For those about to flop... on 07.29.17 at 2:07 pm

Pink Lemonade stand in Port Moody.

Don’t recall too many cases in Port Moody so these guys might have that area covered for their lemonade stand.

Decided to pay 1.89 in June 2016,and the assessment that followed must have been a bit of a shock when it only came in at 1.56 despite coming up a fair whack.

At least they have a park nearby to sit on a bench and think about what sort of pickle they are in…

M43BC

211 Parkside Drive, Port Moody

Jun 12:$2,088,000
Jul 27: $1,988,000
Change: – 100000.00 -5%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=211%20Parkside%20Drive,%20Port%20Moody&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzVkhRUA==

#161 White Trash, Mentally Defective Trump Supporter on 07.29.17 at 2:09 pm

Take it from the Mooch!!!

All you SJW Lieberals are f***king paranoid schizophrenics!!

America will be Great again!

The economy is awesome!

Canadian real estate will go up forever!

#162 real estate on 07.29.17 at 2:19 pm

Final Result

$1.55M – Assessed
$2.195M – Listed
$2.5M – Sold with no subjects – in just 3 days

…………..

not bad…..eh?

#163 For those about to flop... on 07.29.17 at 2:19 pm

Pink Lemonade stand in Vancouver.

Well , this one is not to far from the Ol’ Flop shack.

Paid 1.67 in May 2016 with an assessment that falls roughly in between the buy and the ask.

Detached houses were going half decent during the Spring Fling if priced right ,but now things have seemed to come to a grinding halt with mainly the scraps left over.

I have a case a couple of blocks away form where I live where they have been trying to get their money back for a year.

Multiple realtors, multiple price adjustments,same result…

M43BC

6626 Inverness Street, Vancouver

May 30:$1,849,800
Jul 27: $1,748,000
Change: – 101800.00 -6%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=6626%20Inverness%20Street,%20Vancouver&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMkJSVQ==

#164 Jas on 07.29.17 at 2:23 pm

Wether it is RE or TAX… the main thing to keep in mind is it is a loooong term investment.
And looooong means 30+ years. Anything shorter is speculation.
Problem is in boom times everyone becomes ‘Expert’

#165 Jas on 07.29.17 at 2:25 pm

* TSX not TAX ( The damn auto correction screws as much as it helps)

#166 For those about to flop... on 07.29.17 at 2:42 pm

Pink Lemonade stand in Coquitlam.

This one is borderline, but with the low assessment and me no longer collecting Possible Pinkies , I feel that it is a valid case.

Picked up for 1.41 in April 2016 and an assessment that comes in at 1.37 they might have their work cut out for them.

Only a minor price trim, but they might be wise to take the first decent offer as things only seem to be getting Fowler…

M43BC

807 Fowler Court, Coquitlam

Jun 29:$1,598,000
Jul 27: $1,568,000
Change: – 30000.00 -2%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=807%20Fowler%20Court,%20Coquitlam&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzWE44NA==

#167 Higher Education on 07.29.17 at 3:10 pm

#32 not going down on 07.28.17 at 7:41 pm
#93 DON on 07.28.17 at 11:37 pm
#158 not going down on 07.29.17 at 1:45 pm

This is the second time on this blog I’ve noticed two scholars each claiming the other is less erudite by reference to the number of degrees they possess!

Isn’t the entire point of higher education to expand minds, broaden horizons, and bridge differences? What are the profs teaching the kids these days?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higher_education

#168 Another In A Long Line on 07.29.17 at 3:17 pm

#154 Contrary Canadian on 07.29.17 at 1:28 pm
#22 – Result update as promised

Final Result

$1.55M – Assessed
$2.195M – Listed
$2.5M – Sold with no subjects – in just 3 days

—————

Yah for contributing to the continued sell out of Canada to foreign buyers!

You must be proud especially since your post notes you were suspicious of the three foreign buyers who wanted their address listed through their broker. Buy hey, what are capital controls in countries like China for – its not like they can take out more than 50k or anything.

Another in a long line of turning a blind eye…good for you!

#169 jess on 07.29.17 at 3:34 pm

what these neighbours were up to! and the cement mixers with a new purpose

http://edmontonjournal.com/news/crime/city-police-pull-millions-of-dollars-of-drugs-off-the-streets-in-largest-fentanyl-pill-bust-in-canadian-history

#170 Contrary Canadian on 07.29.17 at 3:38 pm

#168 Another In A Long Line

So you’re blaming the seller, an elderly Canadian lady, for accepting the best offer? The rules are clear on who is subject to taxes, and I hope if these guys are that they are made to pay even if they try to avoid it. If a realtor helps them break the law, I hope they lose their license and get a massive fine.

That being said, my responsibility was to help my mom get the best possible price for her house, my conscience is clear there.

I’m still not convinced that whoever buys the property won’t get burned over the next year or 2 if things start to go the other way like they have for many areas of Vancouver for detached houses at least. Caveat emptor to them, I might even feel a bit of secret satisfaction if they do get singed.

#171 MF on 07.29.17 at 3:44 pm

Contrary Canadian;

Excellent move. Congrats! Thanks for the detailed report.

I have tried to stay away from the foreign buyer issue, but I think this is a telling tale.

Only a few offers and a good percentage were foreign (don’t care about which country). The percentage is pretty much what my estimate of foreign influence in our large cities is: about 30-40%.

MF

#172 young & foolish on 07.29.17 at 3:52 pm

“I don’t understand why everyone is crapping on the TSX.”

Well, Garth said that over last year it was up by double digits! My XIU index fund was trading at $21.35 this time last year … today it’s trading at $22.42 … so it’s up by $1.07 … that’s 2 digits, no?

Lead to read, kid. I said it was up by double digits last year. — Garth

#173 Rooskie on 07.29.17 at 4:49 pm

#152 Rooskie on 07.29.17 at 1:17 pm
You also advised to have 20% of one’s portfolio in USD… I couldn’t have timed it any worse, a month before the Bank of Canada started all this interest rate hike talk. Down over $2K on currency conversion so far.

Always have 20% in US-denominated securities. I did not advice converting at any moment in time, as this should be a permanent portfolio feature. — Garth

Yes, entirely my fault on all counts. When an amateur self directed investor loses money, realized or unrealized, they feel the need to point fingers. No one to blame but the guy who clicked the trade button. I do appreciate the advice you give, it has done me a lot of good in all other aspects. If I hadn’t found your book and blog in 2012 I would be in a lot worse spot financially!

#174 jess on 07.29.17 at 5:04 pm

#11 Howard on 07.28.17 at 6:50 pm

https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2014/03/here-is-when-each-generation-begins-and-ends-according-to-facts/359589/

#175 maxx on 07.29.17 at 5:07 pm

#35 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.28.17 at 7:47 pm

“IF there is a housing correction the Canadian economy and consumers will go into recession and the BOC will lower rates again and two per cent mortgages will be back. They will find a way. No way are they going to pop the bubble.”

The BOC doesn’t want to pop the bubble – it is, however determined to kick non-performing consumer debt to the curb. Where it belongs.

And it really doesn’t give a rat’s behind about re “values” as those do zero for the economy at this stage of the game.

Nor what stupid borrowers are left with at the end of the day.

Focus is on the economy and Canada’s performance in the global economy.

#176 Rargary on 07.29.17 at 6:03 pm

With rates going up I hope Calgary housing prices go down.

#177 Lessons Learned on 07.29.17 at 6:14 pm

Contrary Canadian

Thanks for sharing the sale of your mom’s home in such detail. If I would have had a chance to reply – I would have told you not to take the bully offer – but you ended up doing fine in the end – actually $300k above the initially offer from the same buyers !

These are my takeaways:

1.) Never accept a bully offer especially within the first week of listing.
2.) Bullies will always improve their offer in competition.
3.) As a buyer or bully – Don’t assume all offers are equal (i.e – condition free)….stand firm on price as clean offers are worth a premium.
4.) Your first buyer/offer will generally be your most interested/best.

In your case, your agent created an additional $300k for you by contacting all interested parties and generating 2 more offers. However, as your agent also represented the buyer – I am not sure if he was acting in their best interests. But they ended up “winning” so I guess everyone is happy. I hope they close.

Good for your mom…..must be nice to have that done and work out well.

#178 DON on 07.29.17 at 7:33 pm

#167 Higher Education on 07.29.17 at 3:10 pm

#32 not going down on 07.28.17 at 7:41 pm
#93 DON on 07.28.17 at 11:37 pm
#158 not going down on 07.29.17 at 1:45 pm

This is the second time on this blog I’ve noticed two scholars each claiming the other is less erudite by reference to the number of degrees they possess!

Isn’t the entire point of higher education to expand minds, broaden horizons, and bridge differences? What are the profs teaching the kids these days?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higher_education
8888888888888888888888888

My intention was not to show my education as I truly believe education is only a piece of the puzzle (I was about to erase it in my second post as it has no place in a debate – but was too late Garth had hit the submit button and it was too late to change – my regret) Formal university education is forced learning, memorize and in most cases regurgitate. Learning only one discipline is a hazard as life deals with all disciplines interacting together.

Now these younger people believe education makes them superior to others and should be given management jobs right off the bat. You get a masters degree for essentially studying for an additional year.

Now the ‘not going down’ has not provided any concrete evidence but expects us to rely on his limited experience and not question his words. The market is experiencing severe differences than the years of past but we are expected to believe this is not happening and that things will return to ‘normal’. This is where I question what his version of normal is…only looking at the pat 10 years (in which housing was being pumped by cheap money). If he is so right why spend time on this blog?

He would rather I bet on his speculation…see where I am going with this. It is all about human sentiment, it brought us to this debt ridden party and will be the door crasher in the end.

not going down….Why is the house market not as strong as it was last year and the years prior? What makes you think this is a minor correction and not out of reach of peoples income? To date we still see comments telling Garth the interest rates will never rise in Canada (it just happened).

That’s all.

#179 maxx on 07.29.17 at 8:37 pm

#124 TurnerNation on 07.29.17 at 9:25 am

“Buy your own island. Was $219k, now 199k.
Real value is 59k imo. Zoning allows for covered picnic hut. Whizz off the dock.”

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18282257/ISLAND-H-ISL-LEONARD-LAKE-Ontario-P0B1J0

ROFLOL!! Thanks, TN. Funniest thing I’ve seen today.
A sudden change in wind direction will spray that whizz right back to cover the shack. But hey, you can just chuck the dirty dishwater out the window!

#180 Tyler Durden on 07.31.17 at 12:17 pm

Hi Garth,

What about US preferreds, like PFF and VRP? You think we should pick up some of those since their rates are on an upward trajectory as well?

#181 M on 07.31.17 at 12:51 pm

GDP numbers are irrelevant. Are based on borrowed and printed $ that went into the RE. Now they’ll go down fast at 3X the rate they went up.

#182 Prince Polo on 08.01.17 at 6:16 pm

#21 Banned Canadian Millenial on 07.28.17 at 7:20 pm
If you guys saw the harmless post that got me banned, even you would admit Garth was in the wrong. But Garth can never admit he was wrong or even handle being questioned on his beliefs.

You are a disrespectful little snot. And still banned. — Garth

=============================
Garth, you’re funny!!
Signed, the Belfountain Store Grand Opening customer #2.