No illusions

In the last three days alone at least 89 mortgage lenders or brokers have raised their rates. On Monday 58 announced increases within the industry. Another thirty or so followed suit yesterday. The hikes are in some cases substantial – about four-tenths of a point. The big banks have now established five-year loan costs at just a wisp below 3%, while HSBC has been forced to abandon the predatory rate it announced just weeks ago, for which it was dissed on this very blog.

And then there’s poor Tangerine (owned by the richer-than-you-think bank). Last week the virtual elves at The Fruit People sent out this message:

It’s a great time to apply for a Tangerine Mortgage!
Apply between July 19, 2017 and October 31, 2017 to take advantage of our special offer on a 5 year fixed rate closed Mortgage of at least $250,000:
A fantastic rate of 2.49% / 2.50% APR*
A $700 cash Bonus* to help cover your closing costs

On Wednesday they sent out this one:

Dear Aws,
On July 19, 2017, we sent you an email in error. This message was regarding a special offer on a Tangerine mortgage. We’ve cancelled this promotional offer, and it’s no no longer available.

Please note that if you already submitted a Mortgage application, the offer will be honoured for you.

We are sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused.

Sincerely,

Client Services
Tangerine

So that 2.49% mortgage is now a 2.89% loan. If you had any illusions about where the cost of money is going, best lose them now. The punch bowl has been removed from the party. This is a taste of what’s to come – virtually every lender changing rates on a monthly or even weekly basis, without fanfare or media release.

As you were told here days ago, the bond market is massively aroused. The Canada five-year rate passed 1.6% today (before closing lower), and everybody I talk to on Bay Street says 2% lies ahead (you can tell the kind of firecrackers I hang with). That may not sound like much, but it will push 3% five-year mortgages to 3.5%, and after Christmas likely into the 4% range. Combined with the new stress test for all borrowers (forcing them to quality at 200 basis points above a lender’s offered rate) it changes the dynamics of the marketplace abruptly.

Anyway, let’s move on to the rest of Today’s Bad News.

 Yes, things suck for homeowners when even the boy scouts at CMHC get spooked. On Wednesday the federal housing agency (which many hold responsible for the fact average people can’t afford average homes) said there’s “strong evidence of overall problematic conditions” in the real estate market, citing these area: “Toronto, Vancouver, Hamilton, Victoria and Canada.”

Seriously. It said that. In a news release.

And what are those problematic conditions? First, “slow growth in the young adult population” which means impoverished Millennials are not forming families and popping children. Second, “a decrease in disposal income” (I think they meant “disposable”, but it could be a waste management thing). Third, “imbalances” due to “overbuilding, overvaluation, overheating and price acceleration” which are outside of historical averages.

In short, real estate is pretty much screwed. In Vancouver the problem is excessive demand for entry-level condos, leading to overheated prices while the rest of the market goes limp. In Toronto, “economic fundamentals like income and population growth cannot fully explain the rapid growth in house prices.” There’s even an overbuilding situation in Quebec, CMHC says, and the Prairies, for goodness sake. Like, who wants to live there?

 And speaking of Vancouver, did you catch the latest Zolo market trend numbers? I have no idea how much veracity lies here, but it sure makes you wonder about the comments posted here daily on how YVR is ‘on fire.’ Seems it’s growing colder than Andrew Scheer.

194 comments ↓

#1 TheSpangler on 07.26.17 at 6:18 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adgx9wt63NY

Nuff said

#2 DebtFree on 07.26.17 at 6:21 pm

No matter how fun things get… There’s always the morning after… Just getting started folks.

#3 Victoria Real Estate Update on 07.26.17 at 6:23 pm

TORONTO’S BRUTAL BUBBLE MARKET REVERSAL NOT ATYPICAL OF THE BUBBLE EXPERIENCE

Up until 3 months ago in Toronto… realtors claimed that there would be no end to rising prices in that market. The reason: it was different there. Different than in the US, Japan, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Iceland, etc.

Then it all changed in a flash. Prices in the GTA have fallen almost 20% in 3 months.

Right now in Victoria… realtors are claiming that there will be no end to rising prices. The reason: it’s different here. Different than in the US, Japan, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Iceland, etc. and Toronto…

THE RECENCY ARGUMENT – PROVEN FALSE AGAIN

Up until 3 months ago in Toronto… realtors used the recency argument to create the fear of missing out. They claimed that recent strong year-over-year price gains meant that prices would keep rising forever.

Then the market turned on a dime. Prices in the GTA have fallen almost 20% in 3 months.

Right now in Victoria… realtors are using the recency argument to create the fear of missing out. They claim that strong year-over-year price gains mean that prices will keep rising forever…

TORONTO’S SELLER’S MARKET DISAPPEARS OVERNIGHT

Up until 3 months ago in Toronto… realtors claimed that seller’s market conditions would be permanent because everybody wanted to live there.

Then Mr. Market snapped his fingers and – POOF – that all changed in a hurry. Now there’s plenty of panic selling in the GTA.

Right now in Victoria… realtors are claiming that seller’s market conditions will be permanent because everybody wants to live here…

HOUSING BUBBLE HISTORY

History fails to provide us with even one example of a housing bubble that managed to avoid the destructive bust years of the housing bubble boom-bust cycle.

#4 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.26.17 at 6:24 pm

Garth are you going to be nice today? I asked you kindly to be specific as to what I did wrong and you never answered. I bet you could post all my posts from yesterday and people would say they were mundane and did not deserve to be removed.

Quit whining. — Garth

#5 CMHC not really worried on 07.26.17 at 6:29 pm

I doubt that CMHC is actually worried.
I think it is just keeping up appearances of a concerned institution.

It was only weeks ago that CMHC decided it has *too much* money in reserve, so it gave $4B surplus to the government. (Something they had no obligation to do.)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-special-dividend-1.4184244

#6 Smartalox on 07.26.17 at 6:31 pm

As a pilot, if someone were to tell me that some thing was ‘soaring’, or ‘reaching new heights’ and was ‘totally on fire’, I would expect that a crash was imminent.

Why should markets be any different?

#7 Andrewski on 07.26.17 at 6:32 pm

CMHC report:
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/hoficlincl/observer/observer_166.cfm?obssource=observer-en&obsmedium=email&obscampaign=obs-20170726-hma

#8 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.26.17 at 6:35 pm

BANNED

#9 The Limited Sage on 07.26.17 at 6:38 pm

Being 28, my friends and I are at the stage where buying homes and getting married is (re: was in the old days) the norm.

However, these friends have over-extended themselves with mortgage and wedding debt, some of which is so extremely I’ve been told one couple recently went 2-3 weeks without even being able to shop for groceries.

Yet some keep on buying and piling on more debt because their parents have told them it’s okay – buying a home and having a lavish $100k+ wedding is what’s suppose to happen.

When I point this country’s financial climate and the fact you can’t build home equity if the mortgage costs more then the house’s worth, they balk, call me crazy and laugh that I’m still living at home – “sucking on my mom’s tits”is how one recent new homeowner friend put in detail to me.

I’ve commented here before that I’d feel bad when some of my irresponsible “friends” lose their homes when I buy it off them for pennies. However, this smug attitude I hear daily from my generation now makes me smile once homeowners fully hit the wall and carnage ensues.

(P.S: Screwed Millennial – stop complaining and build your own life. No one has owed me anything over my 28 years and sure as hell no one owes you anything either).

#10 moneydriven on 07.26.17 at 6:39 pm

Garth, Nice blog but YVR is completely skewed base on sales mix. YVR is actually hire than when world was coming to an end last July.

Look at your “sales by volume” graph on the right hand side. Notice the change in sales mix. The detached is gone from 22% of sales to 15% (ball parking the graph). This would reduces the average as there are more condo in the market.

Detached houses are triple price of condo hence the overall Average drops.

#11 moneydriven on 07.26.17 at 6:40 pm

Higher not hire.. my phone auto corrected wrong

#12 paracho on 07.26.17 at 6:46 pm

I agree with #2. Debtfree
Except for $280 on my credit card, I am debt free. Sold my house in Woodbridge after 5 years in October 2015 . Some called me stupid up until March 2017. Yes , I was unaware of when the top would be. But am happy to be debt free with a nice tax free gain .
I have a degree in Finance and always preferred dividends over rental income or even holding into a popping bubble . Many falsely and stupidly keep teller by me… I made so and so much on my house … but they still live in it . The point they forget is the profit on that property is the amount you sold the property for minus the amount you purchased said property for minus mortgage interest. If you want to be more specific you can also subtract the amount of propert taxes. I personally consider overhead costs such as heating , electricity and renovations costs of living in the house.
I think this downtrend is just the beginnings by as I terst rates and bond yields increase and new policies solidify and others such as the stress tests on mortgages are put into place . Many also fail to recognize the GTA is an aging society with schools closing and many millenisls not having kids. Contrary to what many realtors say … there is an oversupply that not even increased immigration can fill .

#13 CL on 07.26.17 at 6:47 pm

The 5 year crossed 1.6 yesterday…..over 1.65. Corrected a bit today but it’s has moved massively. Still low but amazing how fast the bond market can turn.

Even more amazing, people are panicking at these still low rates.

#14 Nick on 07.26.17 at 6:47 pm

So what? YYZ house prices have fallen, but are still up from last year; or better yet; 5 years ago. All this dooms-daying over a cool down? You don’t think there are tons of people waiting in the wings with CASH in hand (and likely more soon due to the attacks on retained earnings)?

How about we talk about the stock market (legalized Ponzi scheme) portfolio taking a massive crap because of a 10% reduction in the USD/CAD FX? Now THAT’S a crash!

#15 john on 07.26.17 at 6:48 pm

CMHC not really worried<<<< I am

#16 Ex-Cowtown on 07.26.17 at 6:54 pm

#5 CMHC not really worried on 07.26.17 at 6:29 pm
I doubt that CMHC is actually worried.
I think it is just keeping up appearances of a concerned institution.

It was only weeks ago that CMHC decided it has *too much* money in reserve, so it gave $4B surplus to the government. (Something they had no obligation to do.)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-special-dividend-1.4184244

_______________________–

We can always sell CMHC to Warren Buffett. He likes to buy things once they’ve hit the distress shelf.

#17 Guy in Calgary on 07.26.17 at 6:56 pm

“Toronto, Vancouver, Hamilton, Victoria and Canada.”

It was Saskatoon listed in the article, not Canada. Saskatoon… really!?

#18 Cloudy on 07.26.17 at 6:57 pm

I’m concerned that my fears that the government will do whatever it takes to keep the party going have mostly been confirmed by Morneau:

“We recognize how important this is to Canadians,” he told BNN in an interview Friday. “I expect for the entire time that I’m in the role of Minister of Finance – the entire time we’re in government – we’re going to stay closely focused on this.”
“There’s no time at which you say we will stop being vigilant,” he added. “We want to make sure that the market is healthy. We want to make sure people’s big investment – their housing investment – is safe and secure as best we can.”

I read this as they want to slow gains down to create some stability but will do whatever is in their power to keep prices relatively propped up, continuing their war on savers and people prudent with their borrowing practices.

#19 unbalanced on 07.26.17 at 6:58 pm

What goes up, will come down. Hate to say it. But I’m loving it

#20 Welsh&co on 07.26.17 at 6:58 pm

@The Spangler … nailed it!

#21 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.26.17 at 7:02 pm

It’s going to be
A Happy HAPPY Housing Crash
A Happy HAPPY Housing Crash
It’s going to be
A Happy HAPPY Housing Crash
and I hope you shysters realtors never work AGAIN…. in the industry.

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.26.17 at 7:05 pm

@#4 Screwed Millenial
“I asked you kindly to be specific as to what I did wrong and you never answered…..’
+++++++
I know this may be unfathomable to a millenial who’s always been told “good job” and “everyone wins” but……. he just doesnt care……

#23 -=jwk=- on 07.26.17 at 7:09 pm

IF CMHC was really worried, they would audit a few loans every now and then. They aren’t, they don’t and the party will continue. Their words are lip service and nothing more.

So is now the time to convert a variable to fixed? Seems like should have done it last month when Garth said not to…

#24 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.26.17 at 7:10 pm

#4 Screwed Canadian Millenial

You little snot nosed cry baby. Go cry in the corner. whaaaa whaaaa Garth is so mean to me. You Millennials are all cry babies.

#25 Dave on 07.26.17 at 7:13 pm

You neglected to mention that the CMHC article acknowledges the supply constraint in Vancouver as a factor keeping prices high. Funny how you left that out.

Actually prices are going down. But thanks. – Garth

#26 Old millenial on 07.26.17 at 7:14 pm

I want this market to crash so hard I can afford a place on Ravencliffe ave in Hamilton. That might also necessitate a societal collapse if you’ve seen the houses there. Who knew Hamilton had some nice places?

Jokes aside, I still see my colleagues spending there time on realtor.ca. Until that stops I don’t think it’s over.

And is there even going to be any REAL price cuts? or is it like that 400k house now costs 300k, but i’ll also be paying the bank another 100k in interest over 25y. It all seems tilted against me. I have to work and save as hard as possible to just keep up. Why can’t I catch a break?

#27 Al on 07.26.17 at 7:18 pm

I thought CMHC said that the downturn in the Toronto housing market would be short-lived?

https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2017/07/26/cmhc-maintains-strong-risk-rating-for-national-real-estate-market.html

#28 Cheese on 07.26.17 at 7:21 pm

Instability abounds!

Wish I had bought bond ETF’s earlier :P

#29 Distress on 07.26.17 at 7:24 pm

#6 Ex-Cowtown
We can always sell CMHC to Warren Buffett. He likes to buy things once they’ve hit the distress shelf.

How can CMHC be in distress?
For decades it has been collecting insurance premiums.

How many underwater mortgages blew up, you think?
Virtually zero pay-outs, as house prices were rising, making it impossible for mortgages to go underwater and borrower defaulting.

So far, selling a foreclosed home would have covered the outstanding debt.
This may change in the future, but the last decade must have been so sweet for a mortgage insurer.

#30 Honest Realtor on 07.26.17 at 7:29 pm

I see the housing crash psychopath is happily at it again today, wishing harm upon so many people.

I’ll bet he gets aroused by looking at police homicide reports, too.

So sad.

#31 A box in the sky on 07.26.17 at 7:30 pm

175 jane24 on 07.26.17 at 10:25 am
Well packing the bag here in the South of England to jet off for my annual month in Canada seeing relatives and friends.

———————-

Well aren’t we lucky to be graced with your presence. Just what we needed – an annoying condescending Brit coming here to lecture us Candian peasants.

FOH

#32 Howard on 07.26.17 at 7:33 pm

#16 Guy in Calgary on 07.26.17 at 6:56 pm
“Toronto, Vancouver, Hamilton, Victoria and Canada.”

It was Saskatoon listed in the article, not Canada. Saskatoon… really!?

———————————

Saskatoon is actually a very pretty city. I was surprised when I first went there 10 years ago.

Regina, on the other hand…..wasteland.

#33 Millennial905er on 07.26.17 at 7:33 pm

Hey screwedcdn…

I’m starting to understand why you’re screwed. Don’t think it has anything to do with fiscal policies or corporate greed.

Pick up a hobby dude. Watch Jordan Peterson to start. “Quit saying things that make you feel weak”

https://youtu.be/BBR5v89L6gk

#34 I Need A Diaper Change on 07.26.17 at 7:41 pm

Waaaaa waaaaaa, I’m an entitled little Millenial with my thumb up my bum. I also want to live in Milton, as I own a hot glue gun and think particle board is farmhouse rustic chic!

Waaaaa, I need my diaper changed, “Mom, mom? Can you come downstairs to the basement with a fresh diaper, I think I’ve soiled myself. . . And can you call Garth Turner and tell him he needs to be nice to me, just like you use to call all of my teachers and say that?”

#35 Eating quinoa in Vancouver on 07.26.17 at 7:42 pm

I have a small shop in East Van and people drop in every day and like to chat. The main topic is real estate but lately, “people living in vans and cars” has been trending. There seem to be a lot more little camper communities popping up too, and they’re not all young people. I personally know a few 60 something’s who’ve resorted to this.

#36 The True State of Victoria on 07.26.17 at 7:45 pm

I missed you Victoria Real Estate Update!

You missed all the nice juicy information about prices going up in Victoria, the unconditional offers, sold over asks, all the nice reports on prices going through the roof.

Now don’t be triggered by the following:

“The benchmark value for a single-family home in the Victoria core increased by 15.1 per cent to $829,600 in June, compared with $721,000 last year.”
http://www.timescolonist.com/business/homebuyers-paying-more-than-asking-price-74m-extra-up-to-june-1.20913635

As the queen of ‘sales are collapsing for two years with price declines around the corner’ I bet you will be flood with the following from Zolo:

The asking price of homes for sale in Victoria has increased 40.00 % since July last year, while the number of homes for sale has increased 11.88%.

https://www.zolo.ca/victoria-real-estate

Yes, that is 40% in less than a year….again 40% in less than a year.

Ouch – 40% up in one year far outstrips the price gains of TO. But alas, Victoria is in BC, and it eludes the attention of the federal government.

Are you now glad you sat on the sidelines renters? LOL.

You will be waiting half a decade for that 40% to disappear IF a correction ever gets started in the land of soggy brains…oh well, you will probably still be in your parent’s basement then.

#37 Tony the Gino on 07.26.17 at 7:49 pm

Where are these homes in Ontario selling for 20% less???!!! Get me one!!! All I see is townhouses in north suburbia listed for over million. Sellers aren’t backing down. Start the sky is falling articles when there’s actually something to fear and benefit for first time buyers.

#38 I Love Love Love Happy Housing Crash Guy!! on 07.26.17 at 7:49 pm

They are wiggling in extreme pain, tortured by their own incompetence as they stare at their high school diploma is awe. But wait. . they have an epiphany. . “Yes, I will be a realtor” – the under educated say with pride! I now have a reason to buy that polyester suit, with a slight sheen. I will conquer, I will prevail, I will sell chip board homes in Milton!

#39 YOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO on 07.26.17 at 7:49 pm

Bankers, real estate agents, mortgage brokers, builders, renovators, contractors, anyone who owns a home:

http://imgur.com/c4jt321

#40 Wrk.dover on 07.26.17 at 7:50 pm

Best mug our gracious host deserves to have.

#41 Linda on 07.26.17 at 7:50 pm

‘and Canada’. Wow, an acknowledgment that there is life beyond Toronto/environs & Vancouver/Victoria environs. Though I notice someone said the article said ‘Saskatoon’ & not Canada, so perhaps I celebrate too soon.

Have to say, don’t understand this apparent requirement to spend a healthy downpayment on a mortgage sized chunk of cash on a wedding. $100,000 or more for ‘the big day’? And not apparently picked up by the parents, since the commenter mentions the newly weds are in debt for the big day. Smart parents, too bad the offspring apparently missed out on the smart gene. Things may have changed since my own big day in pre history, but last I checked money issues were still the #1 cause of divorce. Going into debt on the big day is likely to ensure a failure to launch (though the divorce lawyers are probably smiling). Not saying lack of debt means you are home free but our big day cost about $500 all in (we paid for it & had just purchased a house, so our budget was minimal). 32 years & counting, so something worked:)

Yes, mortgage/loan rates are increasing, but as Garth pointed out, rates will still be at historic lows even with the increases. Sucks if the debt level is so high that even a small increase crushes you, but people don’t seem to learn from history. ‘Please Lord, send another boom – I promise not to piss it all away this time’ is a bumper sticker I used to see. Well, another boom did occur but did anyone keep their promise? Not!

#42 Hey Tony The Gino on 07.26.17 at 7:53 pm

Your village in Italy called, they want their idiot back.

Do you know when your able to return?

#43 Tony the Gino on 07.26.17 at 8:02 pm

Dude go away. I didn’t think people were still jealous of Italians since they are known for money culture taste fashion food wine cheese beaches history fun best looking people etc…… but I’m stuck here in cold boring blah kraft cheese Canada.

#44 choptstix on 07.26.17 at 8:03 pm

#34 Eating quinoa in Vancouver on 07.26.17 at 7:42 pm
I have a small shop in East Van and people drop in every day and like to chat. The main topic is real estate but lately, “people living in vans and cars” has been trending. There seem to be a lot more little camper communities popping up too, and they’re not all young people. I personally know a few 60 something’s who’ve resorted to this.
———————————————–
the rental situation in vancouver/lower mainland is one sad sh*tshow…and just wait ’til next month when the students come rushing back into the city looking for housing…i remember it well from last yr:
a walk in closet (yes, literally!) was being offered at one point for $580 (prob went up this yr 20%, but you’ll get a 10% discount if you can hand the owner his coat when he knocks on your door)
”Walk-in closet advertised for $580 a month in downtown Vancouver”
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/walk-in-closet-advertised-for-580-a-month-in-downtown-vancouver-1.3056374

or this: 40 students lined up to view a bachelor last summer…will no doubt be as bad this yr, too.
”Students struggle to find housing in red-hot rental market
http://globalnews.ca/news/2917393/students-struggle-to-find-housing-in-red-hot-rental-market/

or hey try your hand at a 2 bdrm coop place that has come up for sale as it’s more affordable at $1200:
hundreds line up…
”This — is — nuts’: Why hundreds lined up to see a 2-bedroom, $1,200 co-op suite”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/this-is-nuts-why-hundreds-lined-up-to-see-a-2-bedroom-1-200-co-op-suite-1.4078756

#45 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.26.17 at 8:03 pm

Is Tony Orlando really coming to Toronto??????!!!
Dates?

#46 The True State of Victoria on 07.26.17 at 8:05 pm

#3 VREU

TORONTO’S SELLER’S MARKET DISAPPEARS OVERNIGHT

Up until 3 months ago in Toronto… realtors claimed that seller’s market conditions would be permanent because everybody wanted to live there.

Then Mr. Market snapped his fingers and – POOF – that all changed in a hurry. Now there’s plenty of panic selling in the GTA.

———-

Yes, the market changed IMMEDIATELY after the provincial government intervened and put new rules in. Its not like market sentiment changed on its own or rising rates prompted a shift – because the rate increase was this month.

And GTA should look to Vancouver’s experience. Sales fell after the BC Foreign Buyers Tax was implemented but there was no real slide in house prices and condos and townhouses took off. Foreign capital interest is back up and everyone is waiting for some changes that don’t look like they will happen.

#47 Alba on 07.26.17 at 8:05 pm

#10 money driven
These are the average sold prices on Zola for detached houses in Vancouver

DetachedTownhouseCondo
# Beds Jun 25-Jul23 3 mo ago6 mo ago1 year ago
2 Bd $1.4M -28% $1.7M $1.5M $1.9M
3 Bd $1.9M -13% $2.4M $2.8M $2.2M
4 Bd $2.5M -6% $2.6M $1.5M $2.7M
5 Bd $2.6M -4% $2.7M $2.3M $2.8M
6 Bd $2.1M -35% $2.8M $1.9M $3.2M
All $2.4M -11% $2.6M $2.2M $2.7M

#48 S.Bby on 07.26.17 at 8:06 pm

#29 Honest Realtor

Impossible.

#49 common sense on 07.26.17 at 8:06 pm

Just a coincidence?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-26/spot-outlier-seattle-home-prices-go-vertical-laundered-chinese-money-flows

#50 cramar on 07.26.17 at 8:08 pm

Sounds like the press release by the CMHC was written by a Millennial. I don’t think English spelling, grammar, nor the necessity of proof-reading is taught anymore in the age of the smart phone. Perfect example. Maybe they just forgot to download the app.

#51 For those about to flop... on 07.26.17 at 8:09 pm

#29 Honest Realtor on 07.26.17 at 7:29 pm
I see the housing crash psychopath is happily at it again today, wishing harm upon so many people.

I’ll bet he gets aroused by looking at police homicide reports, too.

So sad.

///////////////////////////////

Don’t get distracted if you want to help someone tell me the results of these recent sales in Vancouver.

I want someone to help me report in real time, if you look at the mix some had a good margin and some were waiving a flag.

If they all made 20% I’m good at least we will know how much gas is left in the tank.

Don’t bother with the bottom one I already know they took at least a 125k kick in the crotch.

Old Bird got tuckered out after one listing.

She went too hard,too early…

M43BC

1401-38 1st Ave W Vancouver..Paid 1.32 asking 126

447 232 st.Langley paid …4.15 asking..4.88

4302-4508 Hazel st.Burnaby paid 1.38 ask 1.5

106-388 w 1st Ave Vancouver paid 728 ask 759

275 Rabbit Lane West Vancouver paid 1.9

4368 Cambridge st. Burnaby paid 1.41 ask 1.49

6291 Bellflower Dr. Richmond paid 2.2

4405 Sophia st. Vancouver paid2.23

5688 Sussex Ave Burnaby paid 1.96 ask 1.68

1607 Balmoral Ave. Coquitlam paid 1.3 ask 1.39

4468 Blair Dr Richmond paid 1.15 ask 998

26290 126 Ave. Maple Ridge paid 2 ask 2.26

4655 Mahood Dr Richmond paid 2.04 ask 1.88

1470 Camelot Rd. West Vancouver paid 4.6 ask 4.99

4250 Chelsea Cres. North Vancouver paid 3.15 ask3.23

#52 Mayor of Milton on 07.26.17 at 8:13 pm

Hello Future Miltonites,

I was sorry that I didn’t see many of you at our open houses last weekend, but I want to assure you, we have plenty more that are coming to market everyday. In fact realtor.ca lights up like a Christmas tree, everyday with people listing their speculator bought homes. We have many vacant homes, designed with fashionable builder beige colours. We have beautiful laminate counter tops in almost every home and 25 oz carpets to please the most discerning buyers. Just in anticipation of your arrival this weekend, for the over 200 open houses, we have set up a beautiful spread at the Halton Municipal Waste site. Halton Region was kind enough to allow us to use “the upper grounds” for our party. Just in case you are not familiar with our party location, it is on the top of the garbage heap, but don’t worry it is covered with sod to make it look like a Mountain. We pride ourselves of being the “New Vancouver” of Ontario. So please fill your Kia Mini Vans with all of your kiddies, cats and extended family members living with you, and don’t forget to bring your cheque book and let’s buy, buy, buy, those beautiful homes. See you at the dump this weekend :-)

Love,

Your future Mayor

#53 Garth is not god on 07.26.17 at 8:20 pm

Garth,
I can guaranty you that there is only one more rate hike ( removal of oil insurance cut) . If BOC believed that the rates will go up then there wont be any tightening of regulation ( 2% stress test ). There is no way we can go back to old interest rate regime because there is too much debt out there in the world. Only way to get back to normal is to restart the game with world money (SDR ) and it is not ready yet. My advice is to starts buying assets after six to eight months because when reset happens you have some thing solid and not the funny duck.

#54 The Limited Sage on 07.26.17 at 8:21 pm

An “Honest Realtor” is about as “honest” as Toronto Star Real Estate Reporter Tess Kalinowski.

#55 S.Bby on 07.26.17 at 8:23 pm

Where can I buy one of those mugs?

#56 choptstix on 07.26.17 at 8:26 pm

#35 The True State of Victoria on 07.26.17 at 7:45 pm
I missed you Victoria Real Estate Update!

You missed all the nice juicy information about prices going up in Victoria, the unconditional offers, sold over asks, all the nice reports on prices going through the roof.

Now don’t be triggered by the following:

“The benchmark value for a single-family home in the Victoria core increased by 15.1 per cent to $829,600 in June, compared with $721,000 last year.”
http://www.timescolonist.com/business/homebuyers-paying-more-than-asking-price-74m-extra-up-to-june-1.20913635

As the queen of ‘sales are collapsing for two years with price declines around the corner’ I bet you will be flood with the following from Zolo:

The asking price of homes for sale in Victoria has increased 40.00 % since July last year, while the number of homes for sale has increased 11.88%.

https://www.zolo.ca/victoria-real-estate

Yes, that is 40% in less than a year….again 40% in less than a year.

Ouch – 40% up in one year far outstrips the price gains of TO. But alas, Victoria is in BC, and it eludes the attention of the federal government.

Are you now glad you sat on the sidelines renters? LOL.

You will be waiting half a decade for that 40% to disappear IF a correction ever gets started in the land of soggy brains…oh well, you will probably still be in your parent’s basement then.
—————————————————-
you sound like a class A asshole, finding smug happiness in other’s worries and/or inability or hesitation to buy into an overpriced area, but also at the same time having to deal with exorbitant rents, esp of the last 2 yrs.

#57 TurnerNation on 07.26.17 at 8:26 pm

So many urban girls describe themselves on social media with: Mother to a fur baby. Or: Proud doggie Mom.
Seriously.

Can you blame them: their years of peak fertility (ages 15-25) were spent under the control of State-paid mind agents: teachers/professors.

Goodbye potty mouthed S.C. Millennial. Hop the S.S. Barista boat. I like mine two milks no sugar remember.

Toronto Joke: 3 million for an old box in a so-so area!

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18029129/276-DOVERCOURT-RD-Toronto-Ontario-M6J3E1-Little-Portugal

#58 Bonhomme Carnaval on 07.26.17 at 8:28 pm

@ #42 Tony the Gino on 07.26.17 at 8:02 pm

Do they have punctuation in your homeland?

#59 john blundell on 07.26.17 at 8:29 pm

Dads house
Long time reader I have met you
Victoria view royal nice part of town
1.1 Acers zoned view royal centre
listed 1.65
3 weeks later
1.35
dad says sell moved assisted living
stay tuned

#60 young & foolish on 07.26.17 at 8:35 pm

” ‘Please Lord, send another boom – I promise not to piss it all away this time’ … yup, people never seem to learn from history.

People just love houses …. only reason they want prices to come down is so that they can buy one.

In the meantime, line up here for a rental application and let my granpa subsidise your lifestyle while you wait …. hehehe.

#61 Andre on 07.26.17 at 8:36 pm

Garth, do you think that TSX index will be affected by the house market correction? I understand that the composite is heavily correlated with the Canadian Financial Industry. I think there is a high probability of a “hard landing” considering all factors at play. I am not sure how much exposure the big banks have to “unsecured” loans that would be in trouble given the increasing interest rate environment. Do we have the same or similar issue US lenders had on AAA mortgages turning into garbage rating due to loose procedures for mortgage approvals?

#62 Reality on 07.26.17 at 8:37 pm

Geez, I think Happy Housing crash guy has been on the sidelines, more specifically a dirty basement, forever. Need to get some air.

#63 For those about to flop... on 07.26.17 at 8:43 pm

A reply to a reply to a reply to Pedantic Poster.

No need to bust my balls about the waving/ waiving incident.

I know the difference,my iPad doesn’t…

M43BC

#64 yorkville renter on 07.26.17 at 8:54 pm

Wait – there’s overbuilding in Toronto, per CMHC??

BUT…BUT… Theres a building freeze in the GTA and there’s no where left to build so prices have to go up forever!

On the way up… Sales mix? that doesn’t matter…prices are skyrocketing in Vancouver

On the way down… Sales mix? oh yeah, except for $15mm homes, prices are actually skyrocketing in Vancouver

#65 Renter's Revenge! on 07.26.17 at 8:59 pm

#8 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.26.17 at 6:35 pm

BANNED

==========

Now you’re messing with…

https://youtu.be/Ki-rdJPO9mA

#66 AisA on 07.26.17 at 9:04 pm

There are times when all one has to do to get ahead is stand still, I do believe this to be one of them.

#67 For those about to flop... on 07.26.17 at 9:05 pm

#21 Mark on 07.25.17 at 7:12 pm

“If the Liberals want reliable RE market information, all they need to do is pick up the phone and talk to people like Ross Kay or myself.”

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

The only reason the Liberals are going to call Ross Kay for is to make sure he still has a restraining order in place against you…

M43BC

#68 Smoking Man on 07.26.17 at 9:09 pm

TFW
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=51024

Tax Farm wants me back. No chance, get rid of Pink Shit day, and I desire whats on the screen saver I’ll consider it.

#69 Todd on 07.26.17 at 9:10 pm

Speaking of YVR…making our first vacation trip to Vancouver soon. Any suggestions for a good area for a home base.

#70 Spectacle on 07.26.17 at 9:15 pm

Thanks for the response to my post yesterday:

“#203 Entrepreneur on 07.26.17 at 3:23 pm”

It was a copy paste , but disturbs me. Talk about economic ruin….anybody else think Agenda 30 is a killer?

Final thought, from tonight’s post, “strong evidence of overall problematic conditions” . What a great statement!

#71 Fiendish Thingy on 07.26.17 at 9:25 pm

So Garth, if I’m reading you correctly, in the dawn of 2018, prospective homebuyers, who just a month ago could qualify for a mortgage at 2.5%, will now have to qualify at 6%? (Stress test of 200 basis points above expected offered rate of 4%- somebody please do the math on how much this reduces the buying power of someone who just barely qualifies at 2.5%)

I just have one thing to say about this:

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!

#72 computer error on 07.26.17 at 9:30 pm

#55 TurnerNation on 07.26.17 at 8:26 pm

i think they added an extra zero by accident

#73 Mark on 07.26.17 at 9:32 pm

“The only reason the Liberals are going to call Ross Kay for is to make sure he still has a restraining order in place against you…”

Huh? That was a completely uncalled for comment out of left field.

Garth, do you think that TSX index will be affected by the house market correction? I understand that the composite is heavily correlated with the Canadian Financial Industry.

Last time there was a RE crash in Canada, the value of bank equity quadrupled. The major banks own money-good insured mortgages against houses, not houses themselves. The banks stand to benefit considerably from the RE crash now in process through widened spreads.

An “Honest Realtor” is about as “honest” as ….. reporter…

Hey now, you don’t gain any credibility by libeling a reporter, however misguided or lacking in critical analysis they may be.

#74 MSM-Free Zone on 07.26.17 at 9:35 pm

Lots of old vs. young smouldering vitriol on the blog today.

Kind of reminds me of the late ’60’s, minus the flowers and VW microbuses. All we need are two nutbar man-childs with nukes to complete the picture.

#75 MF on 07.26.17 at 9:42 pm

#194 waiting on the westcoast on 07.26.17 at 1:34 pm

” not sure where a lot of this vitriol is coming from but there is no conspiracy. Buffet does what Garth espouses and keeps liquid resources available when others have been not been prudent in their finances and then strikes a hard bargain.”

I’m undecided when it comes to Buffett.

Here’s a guy worth 73 billion dollars, but who lives frugally. Okay we can admire that (I think). But if it’s not the lifestyle being rich gives him, than what actually makes him continue to earn such large sums of money? The only other thing I can think of is his ego. That’s off putting.

Politically, his support of the democrats (along with other wealthy celebrities) caused people to go the other way during the last election.

MF

#76 Andrew Woburn on 07.26.17 at 9:42 pm

And you’re worried about house prices!

“32M Becomes First-Ever Company to Implant Micro-Chips in Employees”

http://thehackernews.com/2017/07/biohacking-microchip-implant.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheHackersNews+%28The+Hackers+News+-+Security+Blog%29&_m=3n.009a.1542.ub0ao09enu.xa1

#77 Andrew Woburn on 07.26.17 at 9:47 pm

Why your veggies may cost more in future.

Not enough Mexicans.

No, really. Maybe someone should tell Trump.

“Now, the $47-billion agriculture industry is trying to bring technological innovation up to warp speed before it runs out of low-wage immigrant workers.

California will have to remake its fields like it did its factories, with more machines and better-educated workers to labor beside them, or risk losing entire crops, economists say.”

http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-fi-farm-mechanization/

#78 DON on 07.26.17 at 9:48 pm

#29 Honest Realtor on 07.26.17 at 7:29 pm

I see the housing crash psychopath is happily at it again today, wishing harm upon so many people.

I’ll bet he gets aroused by looking at police homicide reports, too.

So sad.
****************

Back it up a step…you know what is really really sad is that dishonest realtors suckered so many people into bidding wars and helped to create this mess.

#79 WUL on 07.26.17 at 9:54 pm

I saw a photo of the caucus of the new united right party in Alberta, the UCP.

22 members. 1 woman.

Because Alberta.

#80 dakkie on 07.26.17 at 9:54 pm

Holy Shit Moment from Canada…. Search Phrase: ‘file bankruptcy’ EXPLODES

http://investmentwatchblog.com/holy-shit-moment-from-canada-search-phrase-file-bankruptcy-explodes/

#81 When the Whip Comes Down on 07.26.17 at 9:55 pm

#54 chopstix – I agree wiTh you. #35 true state of Vic also has a writing style very similar to the rates vs capital poster frequently reiterating verbatim content from previous posts continously. Both come across as first rate a55h0le5

#82 DON on 07.26.17 at 9:57 pm

#35 The True State of Victoria on 07.26.17 at 7:45 pm

I missed you Victoria Real Estate Update!

You missed all the nice juicy information about prices going up in Victoria, the unconditional offers, sold over asks, all the nice reports on prices going through the roof.

Now don’t be triggered by the following:

“The benchmark value for a single-family home in the Victoria core increased by 15.1 per cent to $829,600 in June, compared with $721,000 last year.”
http://www.timescolonist.com/business/homebuyers-paying-more-than-asking-price-74m-extra-up-to-june-1.20913635

As the queen of ‘sales are collapsing for two years with price declines around the corner’ I bet you will be flood with the following from Zolo:

The asking price of homes for sale in Victoria has increased 40.00 % since July last year, while the number of homes for sale has increased 11.88%.

https://www.zolo.ca/victoria-real-estate

Yes, that is 40% in less than a year….again 40% in less than a year.

Ouch – 40% up in one year far outstrips the price gains of TO. But alas, Victoria is in BC, and it eludes the attention of the federal government.

Are you now glad you sat on the sidelines renters? LOL.

You will be waiting half a decade for that 40% to disappear IF a correction ever gets started in the land of soggy brains…oh well, you will probably still be in your parent’s basement then.
************

Too funny – you relied on a article that states the following… “Buyers in Greater Victoria spent about $73.87 million over the asking prices for homes through the first six months of this year, according to an analysis of local real-estate data. Veteran real estate agent Nicole Burgess of Pemberton Holmes mined new data from the Victoria Real Estate Board to determine that about $73.87 million was spent in excess of the asking price in the first half of 2017.”

You need to stop reading headlines and start reading the article and considering the source. Geezus! You must be a realtor or you made a mistake buying an over priced house. TIMMMMMMBERRRRRRRRRRRR. The gloves are off and it’s pay back time baby. Seriously PAY Back time.

#83 I thinks I know something on 07.26.17 at 9:59 pm

#56 Bonhomme Carnaval on 07.26.17 at 8:28 pm

Do they have punctuation in your homeland?

—————————————————————

When the Romans conquered Britannia in AD 43, the “native” tribes there did not even have a written language. The language (English) that they use to this day is heavily based on the Roman Latin language and uses the Latin alphabet. The Romans came from Gino’s homeland. Just saying.

#84 M on 07.26.17 at 10:03 pm

@59 Andre,

TSX (and the rest of CDN market will be a big smoky hole in the ground.
Canada in the last 15 years WAS ONLY housing.
We’ll see a 2/3 decline in the market over the next few years.
Remember this date folks: July 26 2017-> the day canadian market turned long term negative.

Tremendous opportunities of 10000 to 200 000 % profits. Big 6 will see shares in single digits .Probably none will go bankrupt since they will be bailed out.
Which is a good thing since one wouldn’t care about the exit strategy. T2 and citizen moron will pay the shorts’ wealth.

Once in a lifetime chance for ordinary Joe to play Warren Buffet. Fleece the tax payer.

Cheers

You are breathtakingly thick. — Garth

#85 Greater Fool on 07.26.17 at 10:10 pm

@#35 The True State of Victoria
Sure, you are right! Victoria has shit salaries and ppl are buying houses they can’t afford, they are very creative! You just need to rent the basement, get 2 international students and eat Kraft Dinner for the next 25 years. And BTW, you will have to work for the rest of your life, no retirement plan. Did I tell you that EVERYONE wants to move to Victoria? That is why prices will go up forever so what are you waiting to find a bank, a tenant and a few international students, and unlimited supply of KD? Life is not important, a house is!

#86 Bobby on 07.26.17 at 10:17 pm

For #35, The True State of Victoria,

I’m not sure if you’re out of touch or just plain clueless. The Victoria market is nothing like you have described and certainly not up 40%. Far from it. I know the market here.

I know of one luxury property that just sold after dropping their asking price by over 20%. I know of someone who has already bought, will be closing in a short while but hasn’t sold their own house. The purchase is dependent on this sale. Some showings but no offers so they’ve just reduced the price.

The real problem with the real estate industry is who to trust to get accurate information so one can make an informed decision. With most realtors, prices will always go up but history has shown that to be untrue.

Ask your realtor for sales information in your area of interest for the last three months. Get listing history, DOM and final sale price. You may be surprised. Perhaps even enlightened.

#87 conan on 07.26.17 at 10:24 pm

We now have generational structural problems because of stupid decisions, made by the PTB, 30 years ago. More bad news , these structural problems are financial in nature.

Probably too late to fix. So expect a two pronged assault on the long term price of real estate. Prices are just too outrageous, and we are going to run out of people who can afford to buy homes. I guess we could turn a blind eye to not so clean money, oh wait, we have been doing that.

The real eye opener will be the millions of people who are eventually going to retire with no assets. We are going to need camps for penniless gramps.

#88 Fake News Again on 07.26.17 at 10:30 pm

DELETED

#89 Mike on 07.26.17 at 10:32 pm

Chill chill….

This is canada. RE here will never crash crash. People have high incomes. They pay more over more with ease. Never 2014 prices again.

#90 Keith in Calgary on 07.26.17 at 10:43 pm

Looks like the flippers that I sold my father’s house in Calgary to back in February are in dire straights.

They paid $327,500 from me……..spent $50,000 on reno’s……..have had the place listed for a month now, and just dropped the price today from $414,900 to $399,900………..and, they didn’t even touch the roof that needs replacing (that’s another $10K or so)………they’re hooped !!

“If” they get lucky they’ll break even at full price, but those days are long gone nopw, as everyone will want a further discount. It’s the way of the market now.

Schadenfreude baby !!

#91 waiting on the westcoast on 07.26.17 at 10:46 pm

#81 I thinks I know something on 07.26.17 at 9:59 pm says…
“#56 Bonhomme Carnaval on 07.26.17 at 8:28 pm
Do they have punctuation in your homeland?
—————————————————————
When the Romans conquered Britannia in AD 43, the “native” tribes there did not even have a written language. The language (English) that they use to this day is heavily based on the Roman Latin language and uses the Latin alphabet. The Romans came from Gino’s homeland. Just saying.”

Or as my Father would say… “We saw them swimming across the Thames, so we built a bridge and told them… Now you can walk across”… ;-)

Remember, Italian is derivative of Latin as well… ;-)

#92 Mark on 07.26.17 at 10:49 pm

“We are going to need camps for penniless gramps.”

Those already exist in the form of subsidized seniors housing projects that the CMHC has helped facilitate over the years. For some reason or another, Canada takes extremely good care of its seniors, sending them enough every year in OAS + GIS payments to live a much better lifestyle than a student. With free healthcare to boot. While telling young people its their fault that they can’t afford tuition without doing the whole couchsurfing thing, living in complete comparative squalor, or going into large amounts of student debt.

OAS, GIS, CPP, RPPs and RRSPs are bankruptcy-proof. So the leveraged old might not be able to squat on prime RE in Canada’s major cities, enabled by ‘appreciation’ over the years, but they certainly won’t starve or be forced into destitution. Especially with the sort of deflation that’s in the pipeline.

#93 45north on 07.26.17 at 10:54 pm

Cloudy: talking about the Federal Liberals and specific comments by Bill Morneau: I read this as they want to slow gains down to create some stability but will do whatever is in their power to keep prices relatively propped up,

I read this as they want to remain in power and will do whatever is in their power to remain so.

What is Bill Morneau thinking? It would make sense if in his view, real estate is essentially a lost cause and he now hitches his wagon to a political slogan such as “fairness for middle class families”.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/07/24/wishful-thinking/#comment-530113

#94 Millmech on 07.26.17 at 10:58 pm

#73 MF
Another brilliant investment by Buffet by buying into HCG,just think when those underwater mortgages come up for renewal at triple the rate that was five years ago and add on the 2% stress test amount,what is a Canadian homeowner to do.
These homeowners will get a second mortgage to cover the shortfall and HELOC payment at around 12%-15%.
The social(herd) stigma of losing a home is devastating to most Canadians and this only done once all other financial avenues have been depleted(pensions,cars,family heirlooms).
Buffet knows not to invest emotionally and I think we are in for a painful reminder of this lesson.

#95 conan on 07.26.17 at 11:00 pm

Re: #90 Mark on 07.26.17 at 10:49 pm

I am not talking about the old of today, I am talking about the old of tomorrow. There are millions of people who live pay check to pay check, and they are going to retire in 10 -20 years with nothing. These people will never have a job with benefits, or a wage that allows them to save anything. For them, it is going to be a struggle.

#96 Myra Andrews on 07.26.17 at 11:05 pm

July stats for Vancouver area
Below is for Metro Vancouver but not the Fraser Valley

July 26 New 210 Sold 145 TI: 10,013
July 24/25 New 612 Sold 284 TI: 9998
July 21 New 169 Sold 149 TI: 9806
July 20 New 171 Sold 158 TI: 9831
July 19 not published
July 18 New 275 Sold 128 TI: 9858
July 17 New 362 Sold 162 TI: 9767
July 14 New 164 Sold 109 TI: 9698
July 12 New 288 Sold 184 TI: 9702
July 11 New 282 Sold 148 TI: 9635
July 10 New 399 Sold 147 TI: 9576
July 6 and 7 New 387 Sold 273 TI: 9404

Both real estate boards GVRD + FVRB

=====New Sold Sell/List %
July 26 355 219 61.7%
July 25 417 249 59.7%
July 24 495 286 57.8%
July 21 294 328 111.6%
July 20 337 215 63.8%
July 19 427 237 55.5%
July 18 439 225 51.3%
July 17 477 228 47.8%
July 14 319 145 45.4%
July 13 301 251 83.4%
July 12 448 243 54.2%
July 11 444 251 56.5%
July 10 588 224 38.1%
July 7 368 201 54.6%
July 6 374 225 60.2%
July 5 502 231 46.0%
July 4 696 195 28.0%

#97 Tourist on 07.26.17 at 11:14 pm

#67 Todd

Hoyel Sylvia in English Bay.
Beach, down town, park are all walking distance.

#98 MD on 07.26.17 at 11:19 pm

#78

That graph is misleading.

If you go to google trends and check the trend on “to file bankruptcy” you will see that spike but if you hover over it Google reports they made an improvement on their data collection system at that time. So … fake news!

#99 Hotdogs from Heaven on 07.26.17 at 11:32 pm

#51 Garth is not god on 07.26.17 at 8:20 pm

Garth,
I can guaranty you that there is only one more rate hike ( removal of oil insurance cut) . If BOC believed that the rates will go up then there wont be any tightening of regulation ( 2% stress test ). There is no way we can go back to old interest rate regime because there is too much debt out there in the world. Only way to get back to normal is to restart the game with world money (SDR ) and it is not ready yet. My advice is to starts buying assets after six to eight months because when reset happens you have some thing solid and not the funny duck.
—————————————————

Maybe you should read the news more often. A 30% hike in the Ontario minimum wage in 2018 affects 9% of Ontario’s workers. Those already making $20, $25, $30 an hour will also demand raises, although they will obviously be of a smaller percentage.

Still, this is going to lead to a dramatic increase in inflation in Canada’s largest province since raising prices will be the only way for businesses (especially smaller independent ones) to pay for this. Higher inflation pushes up higher interest rates, even without the current tightening cycle now in play.

Then we add another $1/hour to the rate in 2019. Oh and 2019 is also the year the whole country begins 7 years of constantly increasing contributions to the new CPP system. Companies have to find that money somewhere. They can’t just keep cutting costs. They’ll have to raise prices. Thus more inflation leading to even higher interest rates.

Everything is connected.

#100 what about FED on 07.26.17 at 11:32 pm

Surprised no one has mentioned the fed has gone from apparently raising rates 3X this year to not raising rates again. Garth didn’t you preach that? Read the cbc article that just came out today, sounds like they have backed off bigtime.

#101 april on 07.26.17 at 11:45 pm

#87 – so many realtors on here and people with skin in the game pumping real estate.

#102 NoName on 07.27.17 at 12:14 am

Hey smoking man

Earlier tonight i was about comment on freedoom 58, with exercise, sudoku and crossword, but that just made no sense…
I alway wonder why he keeps plying metallica over this song.

And one more thing my wife was TFW when i meet her. Go easy on those poor souls, they are here out of necessity.

#103 Just the Facts on 07.27.17 at 12:14 am

#52 The Limited Sage

An “Honest Realtor” is about as “honest” as Toronto Star Real Estate Reporter Tess Kalinowski.

/////////////////

From what I have been reading in the last three months, the proper title of Tess Kalinowski should be Toronto Star “Real Estate Spokesperson”.

#104 Newcomer on 07.27.17 at 12:15 am

Interesting factor. I never knew about this.

———
Covered bonds: the European link to Canada’s house price boom

Canadian banks have turned to Europe’s covered bond market for mortgage funding

https://www.ft.com/content/e692a116-71f1-11e7-93ff-99f383b09ff9

#105 LS in Arbutus on 07.27.17 at 12:22 am

Flop, I was able to find two sales of those listing in BC Assessment. The rest are still not sold/updated.

You can see they both sold marginally over what was paid last year. I’d say these people were lucky to get out as well. Many sales seem to be going for 10% or more under assessed.

5688 SUSSEX AVE BURNABY V5H 3B5
Sold May 31, 2017 $1,980
Paid Feb 8, 2016 $1,960
Assessed $1,976
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzV1NKRw==

4250 Chelsea Cres. North Vancouve
Assessed $3,387
Sold May 12, 2017 $3,200
Paid Apr 16, 2016 $3,150
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyODNYTQ==

1401-38 1st Ave W Vancouver..
Paid 1.32 asking 1.26
Assessed 1.316

447 232 st. Langley
paid …4.15 asking..4.88
Assessed 3.370

4302-4508 Hazel st. Burnaby
paid 1.38 ask 1.5
Assessed 1.219
Check out picture on BC Assessment!!! 
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDBUTUtLVg==

106-388 w 1st Ave Vancouver
paid 728 ask 759
Assessed 622 (one bedroom!!)

275 Rabbit Lane West Vancouver
paid 1.9
Assessed 2.382

4368 Cambridge st. Burnaby
paid 1.41 ask 1.49
Assessed 1.360

6291 Bellflower Dr. Richmond
paid 2.2
Assessed 1.992

4405 Sophia st. Vancouver
paid2.23
Assessed 2.353

1607 Balmoral Ave. Coquitlam
paid 1.3 ask 1.39
Assessed 1.185

4468 Blair Dr Richmond
paid 1.15 ask 998
Assessed 1.195

4655 Mahood Dr Richmond
paid 2.04 ask 1.88
Assessed 1.737

1470 Camelot Rd. West Vancouver
paid 4.6 ask 4.99
Assessed $4,254

#106 The True State of Victoria on 07.27.17 at 12:25 am

#54 Chopstix

you sound like a class A asshole, finding smug happiness in other’s worries and/or inability or hesitation to buy into an overpriced area, but also at the same time having to deal with exorbitant rents, esp of the last 2 yrs.
——–

Neither an A hole, nor a realtor, nor an owner.

I just dislike people like VREU who think they have inside knowledge and spout off as if the have the answers. It can be very misleading to those that do not or cannot do their due diligence.

My post is to point out the lack of VREU’s credibility in case some potential buyer comes along thinking that things are as she says. Creating hope around a false narrative is a dangerous thing – and that applies to bears and bulls equally.

#107 NoName on 07.27.17 at 12:26 am

so nelf driving cars in india…

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/07/indias-transport-minister-vows-to-ban-self-driving-cars-to-save-jobs/

#108 waiting on the westcoast on 07.27.17 at 12:30 am

Mark – shouldn’t there already be massive deflation according to your thesis that Vancouver and Toronto prices have been calling for nearly 4 years???

Why are we experiencing inflation then???

#109 waiting on the westcoast on 07.27.17 at 12:45 am

Falling not calling…

#110 waiting on the westcoast on 07.27.17 at 1:01 am

Wow – the difference a century makes when it comes to the government deciding the need to pick your pocket…

http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/what-the-man-who-introduced-canadas-income-tax-100-years-ago-actually-intended/wcm/0a05cdc0-8f8a-412c-b5bf-6c3126c37595

#111 akashic record on 07.27.17 at 1:09 am

#125 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.25.17 at 11:34 pm

@#666 Akashik skipping record
“Ever since the uninvited invaders robbed them from their land, their way of living, their culture, made their customs “illegal”, ripped out their souls one child after the other.
We are all just guests here.
Even if you pretend the opposite.
++++++
So….. when exactly does the white mans burden end?
When the taxpayers hand over $100 Billion A trillion?
I mostly work with 1st nations on a daily basis.
Excellent workers, proud of their heritage but sick of the pc correct bs.
As one of them said so eloquently to me a few years ago when we were talking about all the protests
, ” Whats the most expensive red wine in Canada?
” Its our land”

What’s your “burden”, “white man”?
Who asked you to come, who stops you to go?

#112 Freedom First on 07.27.17 at 1:21 am

#35 True state of Victoria

Very very few houses have basements in Victoria. Too much rock to blast through. No charge.

#113 NV landlord on 07.27.17 at 1:28 am

Where to stay in Vancouver for a family holiday.
I would suggest the Sylvia Hotel, in the West End. It’s on the water front on English Bay – so the beach for kids, walking distance to Robson Street shopping, easy access to the Art Gallery, Aqua buses to Granville Island and neighbouring Stanley Park. BUT it’s old and funky. Probably all booked up but try it.

#114 M-cube on 07.27.17 at 2:52 am

@ #8 Screwed Canadian Millennial – BANNED

Oh man, now I’m curious what this woman wrote to get banned….Garth, please reveal! lol I backed up that woman a few posts ago with what I thought was a ‘somewhat’ sensible post. But to now learn that she has messed up enough to get herself banned makes me believe she going turn out just like her mother!

#115 willworkforpickles on 07.27.17 at 4:07 am

Relax… in a few years you’ll be able to pick up a single detached in Toronto for a quarter mill. A year later you’ll be kicking yourself in the ass for paying too much.
For now…enjoy….eat drink sleep.
…its all good ….

While there’s still food….

#116 willworkforpickles on 07.27.17 at 4:37 am

It isn’t hard to imagine how houses could drop to the quarter million mark in Toronto in a few years.
Now you won’t be buying from those who paid a million and a quarter and decided to hang on suffering through rising interest rates for a house worth a million less than what they still owe …no.
You may buy from the bank for whatever they can get on those formerly million and a quarter priced properties new owners of today will eventually walk away from.
There will be more cheap bank owned houses than you can count in a month counting steady 24 hours a day the banks will be left holding the bag on.

#117 JerseyCynic on 07.27.17 at 4:45 am

Waiting on the Westcoast

I don’t know why this video popped into my head.

(Mr.) Tangerine Speedo — PLEASE GET HIM A TOWEL
….he’s all over town!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqtxIXnzkZc

great tune!

#118 NoName on 07.27.17 at 5:35 am

When I saw this version of lean manufacturing, for first time I could not believe my eyes, this is machines
are designed so we don’t brake and obuse people. Now every so often I watch it to remind me how good I/we have it.

https://youtu.be/AUPji7L9aSs

And now this, modeling for taobao. I have to admit that according to article money is very good (1500 day), but if I got math correct, based on 8 hours work that is 9000 flashes directed towards models per work day, 45000 for a week work or 180k flash steobes for a month. Knowing that retina demage is ireversable it won’t take long before eyes photoreceptors will start weakening…

https://petapixel.com/2017/07/22/chinese-models-get-photo-shoots-done-fast/

Great fire wall is going up but next Feb, soon it will be less info of what is going on over there.

#119 Old Ron the Realtor on 07.27.17 at 6:03 am

@ # 90 MARK: Beware young man you are being duped into NEO-CON (AKA Hunger Games) thinking. It is not some old man or women living below the poverty line who is making your life hard. Check out the thresh-hold for GIS supplements and you will see that you have to have a pretty miserable financial existence to qualify.

CPP is just getting a little back from what you poured into the system. OAS ($6,600 a year)wouldn’t cover your bar bill, and there is a claw back, so if you are doing ok, the Gov. (rightfully so) takes it back. By the way the “O” in OAS stands for “Old” You don’t want to go there.

Globalization and automation are far bigger threats to your future than some old folks, who will be shuffling off this planet in a few years.

#120 NoName on 07.27.17 at 6:20 am

Last of topic for today.

I you have toddler or small kid definitely read. Few days ago my my son was scared $#!7less wouldn’t sleep keep talking about purple guy, i checked his tablet, computer nothing until few hours back on roku.
here is video made for kids by some sick %@#$.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZsG2ZNf5Zg

Funny how it work you watchit once and youtube bombards you with similar content….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8mcyw32aHI

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/07/what-youtube-reveals-about-the-toddler-mind/534765/?utm_source=nextdraft&utm_medium=email&single_page=true

#121 Richmond Hill on 07.27.17 at 6:38 am

Need people’s help…

Is there anyone who can tell me if 66 Richmond St. in Richmond Hill (GTA) ever “sold” and if the deal fell through or has it been on the market for the entire 4 months?

MLS® Number: N3817088

Here’s a little about the history…
Listed on March 23 for $1.5 Million. Just checked MLS and it’s still there but now for $1.6 Million!!!

#122 NoName on 07.27.17 at 6:59 am

It doesn’t surprise me that people are drinking more…

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3281950-anheuser-busch-inbev-beats-0_09-revenue-line

#123 NoName on 07.27.17 at 7:06 am

Must Read !!!

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column/expert-view/opioid-crisis-becomes-national-security-threat?utm_source=Join+the+Community+Subscribers&utm_campaign=19b56f80c4-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_07_26&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_02cbee778d-19b56f80c4-122491257

“Fast forward to June 2016, when authorities in Vancouver, Canada seized one kilogram of carfentanil. The agent was sent via mail from China to an address in Canada, and it was hidden in a package that was declared on a customs form to be printer accessories. It was the largest seizure of carfentanil to date.

Carfentanil, a synthetic opioid, is highly toxic. The drug is 10,000 times stronger than morphine and 5,000 times more potent than heroin. Only 20 micrograms, roughly the size of a grain of salt, can be fatal. The seizure in Vancouver was enough to kill 50 million people – every man, women, and child in Canada.”

#124 maxx on 07.27.17 at 7:46 am

I want to be a nice person, but gawd CMHC are dumb.

Backstopping bank risk, when banks likely embody the fittest at risk assessment and control.

In the highly unlikely event that they mess up, there are backstopping provisions galore already in place.

Where can I get that mug?

#125 BillyBob on 07.27.17 at 8:08 am

#104 The True State of Victoria on 07.27.17 at 12:25 am

Neither an A hole, nor a realtor, nor an owner.

I just dislike people like VREU who think they have inside knowledge and spout off as if the have the answers. It can be very misleading to those that do not or cannot do their due diligence.

My post is to point out the lack of VREU’s credibility in case some potential buyer comes along thinking that things are as she says. Creating hope around a false narrative is a dangerous thing – and that applies to bears and bulls equally.

==================================

Still chose to make your point sounding like an A-hole, though. I guess you can’t grasp the irony of BEING the one “spouting off with all the answers”.

Nice to see you’ve been soundly disproven by several other posters with boots on the ground.

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.27.17 at 8:20 am

@#109 skipping record.
“What’s your “burden”, “white man”?
+++++++

Neverending , rising taxes to pay for endless pc issues that will never , ever, ever, end.
How much does a genderless washroom in Vancouver cost anyway?

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.wikihow.com/Make-an-Outhouse&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjPr8SquanVAhXqj1QKHdtWBMwQFggpMAg&usg=AFQjCNFNdPmhNjBCp6Q4dACUS50nAomTrA

#127 Hamilton on 07.27.17 at 8:29 am

Got this e-mail today from a realtor, LOL!!!!!

So far, the slight dip in the market has been a soft landing for most, AND, in the last two weeks I have physically noticed more buyers on the ground again.  We still have a healthy supply of listings but the initial fear of the ‘cliff’ has tapered off.

Attached is the year-over-year statistics (detached homes only)… as you can see the average price is still well above that of 2016.

#128 Yuus bin Haad on 07.27.17 at 8:50 am

All together now: On the cover of the Rolling Stone … (wanna see my picture on the cover; wanna buy five copies for my mother).

#129 20th Century Limited on 07.27.17 at 8:50 am

Hey Garth –

Great blog.

I got quite a chuckle out of the spelling missteps in the CMHC press release. ‘Disposal income’ indeed! But not really surprising in a province where just 85% of grade nine students were able to pass a province-wide literacy test about seven or eight years ago, and a dumbed-down exam at that. 85%! Grade nine! And how McSquinty crowed about it. Sometimes I thank my lucky stars I’m an old-school boomer – the world is going to hell.

#130 IHCTD9 on 07.27.17 at 9:00 am

#218 Ace Goodheart on 07.26.17 at 6:58 pm
RE: #200 IHCTD9 on 07.26.17 at 2:58 pm

“I’ve fed totally wild Crows, Pheasants, Partridges, Blue Jays, and Turkeys by hand in the past.”

Interesting. You must not be a wage slave, debt ridden, dreaming about the future zombie then. Perhaps you are to some extent actually living your life?

As I gradually move away from the horrors of careers and 9-5 and work till you die of something nasty, the birds seem to be getting friendlier.

I suppose the test for having reached pure happiness, would be if a robin or a sparrow would eat out of your hand. Accomplish that and you have actually lived.

__________________________________________

Still a wage earner, but a slave that is working towards earning his freedom and getting close – maybe another decade. My life is under control though, and low stress.

If you look at some of the footage on YouTube of Dick Proenneke, you’ll see he feeds tiny woodland birds by hand – the kind of birds I’d never be able to hand feed. This guy was 30 years in the wilderness, and the only human in 100’s of miles in any direction.

Next time I see a Robin out in the yard, I’ll check and see how I’m doing :)

#131 fancy_pants on 07.27.17 at 9:06 am

I expect we’ll see some pretty wicked inflation before they raise rates to anything significant … they know ‘normal historical’ rates are no longer possible without collapsing a debt-based economy. Venezuela is the precursor to what to expect.

http://www.workableeconomics.com/the-debt-based-economy/

#132 Covfefe on 07.27.17 at 9:23 am

#66 Smoking Man on 07.26.17 at 9:09 pm

TFW
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=51024

Tax Farm wants me back. No chance, get rid of Pink Shit day, and I desire whats on the screen saver I’ll consider it.
…………………………………………………………………….
Go to the Island idiot, go, go fast please. If the tax farm wanted you back and you just lost your home due to lack of funds then you truly are a big sausage. We all heard your love of Long Branch and the million’s in the secret Caribbean bank account that the Canada Revenue Agency can not touch so go, please go. So which is it you lying sausage head! You are as bad of a flip flop and liar as that piece of turd in Washington. Now cut the drivel and move on. Oh one more thing my sister in-law works for CRA. She was amused when I showed her your BS.

#133 For those about to flop... on 07.27.17 at 9:51 am

27.17 at 12:22 am
Flop, I was able to find two sales of those listing in BC Assessment. The rest are still not sold/updated.

You can see they both sold marginally over what was paid last year. I’d say these people were lucky to get out as well. Many sales seem to be going for 10% or more under assessed.

5688 SUSSEX AVE BURNABY V5H 3B5
Sold May 31, 2017 $1,980
Paid Feb 8, 2016 $1,960
Assessed $1,976
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzV1NKRw==

4250 Chelsea Cres. North Vancouve
Assessed $3,387
Sold May 12, 2017 $3,200
Paid Apr 16, 2016 $3,150
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyODNYTQ==

//////////////////////////////

Hey LS, thanks,yeah I knew about the Chelsea one.

You are going to see this a lot in Vancouver,even though they got slightly more then they paid they still took a loss of roughly 4% each after expenses and combined roughly 200k.

The S.S Vancouver has not sunk yet,but it has spotted the iceberg off in the distance…

M43BC

#134 IHCTD9 on 07.27.17 at 9:55 am

#9 The Limited Sage on 07.26.17 at 6:38 pm
Being 28, my friends and I are at the stage where buying homes and getting married is (re: was in the old days) the norm.

However, these friends have over-extended themselves with mortgage and wedding debt, some of which is so extremely I’ve been told one couple recently went 2-3 weeks without even being able to shop for groceries.
__________________________________________

I’ve always considered that life’s major expenses should be well conquered by the time you hit 40. These expenses should have also allowed savings and investment from as soon as you have the income to do so.

If you hit 40 and you’re still buried in mortgage debt, school debt, and consumer debt, you’ve essentially thrown out the best 10-15 years of investing you ever could have done. These early dollars are the seeds that get to compound over multiple decades – unless you piss that time away. If you do, there’s no way to ever realize that benefit again short of a time machine.

You do this by structuring your lifestyle around your income to forcibly enable investing to happen – every week. Pay yourself first and let your creditors scream. Make it a real priority. Sacrifice if you need to.

Your friends are insane. One of largest sources of conflict in marriage is strife over money. I read that a typical messy American divorce does as much physical damage to your body as smoking a pack a day for 10 years. You watch, ~8-12 years or so into their debt fuelled marriages, SHTF will happen, and about half of your buds will get divorced – right around the time they should be just starting to see the fruits of their labour.

Later in life, although they’ll never say it to your face, your friends will know who was smart, and who was stupid.

#135 Garth is not god on 07.27.17 at 10:11 am

#97 Hotdogs from Heaven

I get your point but if i run a small business i will only hire a contractor not employee. If business increase the price then the drop in demand will kill the business and only way for them is to be innovative to reduce the cost which will make lower employment like out cancellation of LPG. There will be no inflation and higher interest rate together because they will balance out. what i can see it low employment due to minimum wage, higher price and lower interest rate ( typical stagflation ). Good luck

#136 IHCTD9 on 07.27.17 at 10:15 am

#126 Yuus bin Haad on 07.27.17 at 8:50 am
All together now: On the cover of the Rolling Stone … (wanna see my picture on the cover; wanna buy five copies for my mother).
___________________________

The last time the Trudeau’s had contact with the Rolling Stones it resulted in a Divorce.

Cloudy ways ahead.

#137 n1tro on 07.27.17 at 10:23 am

#9 The Limited Sage

Wow…an enlightened millennial! There is hope after all. Don’t let your douchebag friends make you feel bad about being smart with your money. Their overpriced houses will be worth half in a few years while their $100K weddings will end in divorce (half of them anyways).

#138 Dan.t on 07.27.17 at 10:31 am

#67 Todd
You are going to Van, first check out east Hastings street, then see the latest tent cities that are popping up because no average joe can realistically afford to live in or around Vancouver,

then travel to Poco or Surrey or anywhere within an hour drive of the city and ask those forced out, and still forced to pay 380+k for a 1 bedroom apartment or 2k+ a month rent for a 550 sqft apt and the privilege of living in BC, actually, rents are now about that all the way to Chilliwack, maybe move to Hope BC where houses are only 600k and rent 1600.

and make sure to ask the locals there about how much fun it is to commute 1 hour + into the city and how awesome it is to drive into Vancouver and around Vancouver everyday on the number 1 hwy-
such beautiful scenery (once you stop looking at bumpers).

And ask how many would love to actually live near work but just can’t afford it…they will only tell you the truth after a few drinks and in a relaxed setting….then the anger surfaces…

Must be the sign of a great city, I ve spoke to so many people that would love to just up and leave if they thought they could find jobs elsewhere, and under the surface so many hate what has happened the city…I guess that’s progress.

Main reason is, prices have gone up 400% and more so no local can actually buy in Vancouver, unless you have a cool 800k for a 2 bedroom apartment (plus 500 month strata,+ taxes) but I must be exaggerating….affordable housing is totally overrated and if you don’t like it just leave…

there are some affordable single houses in Langley or Abbotsford that 10 years ago only cost 200+k but now can be yours for an easy cool million. Seriously, its only a million, that’s nothing in BC. Like pocket change to the locals.

Aren’t government policies that encourage debt, give incentives to buy a bunch of houses, take the risk from the banks and pass it onto tax payers fun. Plus lets not talk about the liberals policies with regards to overseas buyers, the more the merrier it seems.

Good thing they are still on it and the govement officials are still making statement about how they won’t let anything happen to canadians biggest investment…does that mean I just have to find a way to get 5% down and buy a million dollar house and the goverment will make sure it never goes down…so sweet.

Other than that, have fun in Vancouver, it is unreal to visit. Seriously. Just living there is tough unless you bought 10+ years ago.

#139 Shortymac on 07.27.17 at 10:40 am

@TonyTheGino

Don’t worry to much about the prices, a lot of sellers are being stubborn and still think it’s a sellers market. No big price decreases just yet.

I think when winter hits there will be a lot of price decreases when the bills start increasing. Happy hunting.

#140 Looney Baloney on 07.27.17 at 10:44 am

Lol screwed millennial is banned?

Hey screwy, please fill one of these out asap and drop it off with one of the amazons at the front desk. We take hurt feelings very seriously in this blog.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-h3kADEPgZ1Y/Td6mRVG5XdI/AAAAAAAAACY/OSXH1m0nA3s/s1600/imhurt001pv7.jpg

#141 Damifino on 07.27.17 at 10:56 am

My doctor is ‘retiring’ after 33 years. I’ve been with him for the last 24. He was unable to find anyone willing to take over his sizeable family practice. No takers at all.

I am lucky. Often a doctor will disappear in the night. I’ve been given three months notice and personal access to all my medical records (for a fee, of course).

This seems suspiciously coincident with T2’s recent tax vendetta against doctors.

My doctor isn’t quitting medicine altogether, he’s only quitting his family practice and going to work for Immigration Canada. I don’t blame him.

But it’s deeply disappointing. He was a tremendous doctor for me and there’s almost no GP’s in Vancouver taking on new patients.

So it goes…

Every action has a consequence. The Doctor’s Tax exemplifies this. — Garth

#142 Eks dee Sipal on 07.27.17 at 11:07 am

#81 I thinks I know something…

I’ve been looking into the origins of the peoples of the British Isles lately: read Archaic England by Sir Harold Bayley. https://archive.org/stream/archaicenglandes00bayl/archaicenglandes00bayl_djvu.txt

The cradle of civilization was not Sumeria, it was instead a world-wide legacy passed down from whoever were the Megalithic builders to Troy (Istanbul) and New Troy (London), with mining operations and trade from Cornwall to Michigan and the world over. The seat of the power of the Roman empire was not in the laughably indefensible plain on which Rome stands today, but in Constantinople of Anatolia, the mighty crossroads of the world.

Megaliths in Montana: http://www.montanamegaliths.com/

Megaliths in frozen Russia: http://thetruthwins.com/archives/newly-found-megalithic-ruins-in-russia-contain-the-largest-blocks-of-stone-ever-discovered

#143 IHCTD9 on 07.27.17 at 11:08 am

#12 paracho on 07.26.17 at 6:46 pm
________________

Good job.

I’d consider home ownership costs above and beyond renting as follows:

1. Interest costs
2. Maintenance costs
3. Realtor costs
4. Majority of property tax costs
5. Land transfer fees/taxes/lawyers
6. Waste disposal fees
7. Equipment and tools related to ownership one time costs
8. Most of water bill
9. Most of sewer bill
10. Insurance costs
11. Deductibles on any insurance claims
12. Upgrades/Updates required by insurance Policies
13. Insect/Pest Control
14. Renos
15. Fire Permits

A renter/squatter would pay rent that may or may not include all/some of the above costs. There are renters out there that pay less than just the mortgage payment alone that the landlord must shoulder.

The owner is on the hook for all of the money, time, effort and headaches.

Every year you live in a house, it costs you money. I pay 7-800.00 a month to live in my own paid for house all-in. My costs are way low compared to most.

#144 45north on 07.27.17 at 11:18 am

Hydro One:

Randall Denley:

The auditor general found that Hydro One power outages were becoming increasingly frequent and lengthy, that there was a serious maintenance backlog, and the company justified higher rates by pointing to failing transformers but failed to replace them. The auditor said that nearly $4.5 billion in transmission assets were already beyond their expected service life. The company didn’t even have a good program of trimming trees to reduce power outages.

The government has dealt with this problem by ruling that the auditor general can no longer report on Hydro One, despite the large public investment.
If the Liberals’ goal was to screw up every aspect of Ontario’s power system, the sale of Hydro One completes their task.

http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/denley-hydro-one-no-longer-has-ontarians-interests-at-heart

it was Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals that sold the major portion of Hydro One. Even if the Ontario PCs win the next election it wouldn’t be easy to undo the damage.

#145 chopstix on 07.27.17 at 11:18 am

“Rents on fire: Vancouver follows San Francisco’s lead to curb rental crisis
An estimated 24,500 households in Vancouver are in need of more affordable housing”
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/british-columbia/rental-crisis-vancouver-san-francisco-housing-shortage-evictions-us-canada-west-coast-1.4221225
…just disheartening, let alone scary, esp as so many have to rent because they can’t afford to but in…esp if a single mid class incomer…article seems to equally apply to Victoria and Toronto, too.

#146 Eks dee Sipal on 07.27.17 at 11:21 am

Further info to enlighten you today: Latin did not give rise to European languages, quite the opposite in fact, to what you were taught in school (assuming you were paying attention, but based on the commenters on this blog, probably not).

French (and English) are far older than Latin. The Romans did not speak Latin for everyday use, they instead spoke what we can call today Italian or a form of proto-Italian likely derived from the Etruscans. Latin was simply the ‘scientific’ language derived to act as the official language of the empire, for monuments and documents, sort of the like the “Legalese” spoken today.

Getting back to “English”. You were taught that English is simply the Anglo-Saxon – ization of the native Celtic or Welsh / Irish. This is seen as not quite accurate today by researchers like me. Many English words are actually of two forms: the Celtic (ancient language from Troy and its predecessors) and the Anglo-Saxon versions from the ‘invading’ Germanic tribes: e.g. “coat” is from the Celtic “cot”, while “jacket” is from the German “jacket”. English is a spongy language, it absorbs all others. There was no Germanic invasion, just like there was no Roman invasion per se. The peoples of the British Isles were in contact with the Mediterraneans and in fact had periodic influxes of immigrants from all areas of the world over many centuries prior to the coming of the “Romans”.

If you want to know even more about the origins of language itself, just ask me. I’ve only given you the tip of the iceberg. There’s lots more. Including the real origin of the Welsh, the oldest of the European languages.

#147 M on 07.27.17 at 11:28 am

@82

Thank you Garth :)
Congrats would be ok later.

Keep up the good work.

#148 Yuriy on 07.27.17 at 11:46 am

I don’t really think anything drastic will happen in Toronto or Van. Until this industry in transparent nothing will happen. Government will be sustaining these prices. RE in Canada is massive shady domain. No one is interested in housing crash. There is a very serious lobbyists in this industry. They will pour free money again if it will start to fall. They will manipulate stats to shape herd’s perception. Since we have socialist government in Canada it comes with all attributes on socialism (I can recognize them I grew up in USSR): they lie and play dirty. It’s really ridiculous to believe prices will go down. There’s nothing left in Canada in terms of economy. Who would believe those article in G&M about new positions in economy ? It’s all cooked data and “creative bookkeeping”. But we won’t be able to override economic fundamentals and one day we are going to have epic Argentina style crash…

#149 Statistics for Montreal? on 07.27.17 at 12:02 pm

Doea anyone have any statistics for Montreal? I keep hearing in the local news that foreign investors are now driving up prices in Montreal, but find that somewhat hard to believe. Housing prices have gone up by a favor of three here since 2000, while real wages have stagnated and the province is often compared with Greece if it weren’t for the federal transfer payments. It seems to me we have a major bubble in Montreal as well, especially when considering the crappy quality of homes here in comparison to th rest of Canada (let alone Western europe). But, all the newspapers only tell good-news stories. Does anyone here have more insight in what is really going on here?

#150 Farsyd on 07.27.17 at 12:09 pm

Garth, why the Scheer dig? Please give us the inside scoop? He is the only possible saviour from the T2/Wynne one-two tax til they drop menace.

No dig. An observation. The way forward is probably in progressive conservativism, not social conservativism. — Garth

#151 Bonhomme Carnaval on 07.27.17 at 12:18 pm

@ #81 I thinks I know something on 07.26.17 at 9:59 pm

What does that have to do with the price of fish?

#152 MF on 07.27.17 at 12:29 pm

Every action has a consequence. The Doctor’s Tax exemplifies this. — Garth

I want to point out The doctor is with immigration canada..not moving down south like everyone thought though.

MF

From self-employed to government employee. That’s a consequence. — Garth

#153 The True State of Victoria on 07.27.17 at 12:32 pm

#123 BillyBob on 07.27.17 at 8:08 am

#104 The True State of Victoria on 07.27.17 at 12:25 am

Neither an A hole, nor a realtor, nor an owner.

I just dislike people like VREU who think they have inside knowledge and spout off as if the have the answers. It can be very misleading to those that do not or cannot do their due diligence.

My post is to point out the lack of VREU’s credibility in case some potential buyer comes along thinking that things are as she says. Creating hope around a false narrative is a dangerous thing – and that applies to bears and bulls equally.

==================================

Still chose to make your point sounding like an A-hole, though. I guess you can’t grasp the irony of BEING the one “spouting off with all the answers”.

Nice to see you’ve been soundly disproven by several other posters with boots on the ground.
——

Where was I disproven by boots on the ground?

This site now likes to use ZOLO to advance the market crash narrative. I showed what ZOLO was saying about the market – a 40% increase in sales price.

This site likes to criticize the realtor franken numbers when they show prices are rising. But it is the first to use the same franken numbers when they show prices are declining or when they highlight foreign capital is only 5% when actual provincial data says otherwise. I used realtor franken numbers.

This site likes to highlight anecdotes. Just as someone highlights a ‘house in my hood in x part of town sitting for weeks without a sold sign’ as a sign of cooling, anyone can equally talk about the market being hot because ‘a house in my hood in x part of town sold in a day.’ These are just anecdotes – which I avoid.

Its about empirical data, and to date, no one has shown that Victoria is correcting. On the contrary, the data shows price gains.

While that may change, the point is posters claiming the sky is falling for the past two years are wrong – for now…

Thanks for coming out and trying to dog pile. Better luck next time.

#154 Tazi Bnu on 07.27.17 at 12:32 pm

#142 45north on 07.27.17 at 11:18 am
Even if the Ontario PCs win the next election it wouldn’t be easy to undo the damage.
____________________________________________

Some of the damage is permanent. Most of the damage will take multiple mandates to fix, so it could be impossible. Very little will be easy to fix.

#155 Bonhomme Carnaval on 07.27.17 at 12:38 pm

@ #147 Statistics for Montreal? on 07.27.17 at 12:02 pm

SFH in the top 5% (pricing) have gone up 20% in the last five years, moreover cottages in prime areas in the Laurentians and Eastern Townships, have too seen double digit increases.

Real wage stagnation and inflated real estate, hummm, welcome to Canada dude.

Construction standards and codes in Qc are stricter than the RoC. Qc also certifies a program called ‘NovoClimat’; the equivalent to LEED (US).

In Europe, structures utilize a reinforced concrete structure, in Canada and the US we build using a wood frame armature. You’re comparing apples to watermelons.

Lastly, there has been a huge French migration in the last 10 years (approx. 70,000-80,000), with a total French national population around 150,000. Hence, The Plateau is referred to as the 21e arrondissement (Paris has 20 boroughs). In addition to all those Euros making their way into the RE market, we cannot forget the Dictators du jour (and family) from the French speaking African nations.

All this is well documented in the magazine LesAffaires, Le Journal de Montréal, LaPresse, et al.

*HOT MARKETS : Westmount, Town of Mount Royal, Hapstead & Côte-Saint-Luc.

#156 WUL on 07.27.17 at 1:02 pm

Holy catfish!! My rude and intemperate email to my MP yesterday got hot action in my rage against the machine. One helpful Barb called this morning (within 23 hours) and provided a solution to my anger management issues.

I’m back in my happy place.

If they keep this up, I might vote Conservative for the very first time in 43 years post age of majority.

Nah.

Let’s not go overboard. If any folks need a rant written, please advise.

#157 Wrk.dover on 07.27.17 at 1:04 pm

#141 IHCTD9 on 07.27.17 at 11:08 am

Every year you live in a house, it costs you money. I pay 7-800.00 a month to live in my own paid for house all-in. My costs are way low compared to most.

———————————————-

You missed the biggest one after insurance and taxes…. heat.
In my case that comes out of your line item 7, as our heat is do it yourself wood.

Our comprehensive post debt real estate budget with a two decade track record earmarks $877/mo, all in, inc. upgrades, internet, dish etc. for the whole estate. The guest house was only $80 of that, until insurance co got greed. This compound is a pretty nice own @$28.75/night, even though there are unending chores!

Another complete subsection of our budget is what it would cost us to couch surf elsewhere, $762/mo.

The primary always garaged winter beater car, driven 14,000/yr has been $320/mo everything in inc fuel for 15.5 years but will need replacement in 5 years by the looks of it.

A couple thousand a month is all it takes to live in this hinterland, and the rest goes to sunny day cars plates and insurances, and negligible associated expenses, TSFA top ups and as I oft repeat on this site Vacation-Travel!

Ted Turner did the math, and gave it all away but kept 200 million.

My math calls for 4,000/mo, indexed. Few readers here would want to be me, but I’m loving every minute of it!

#158 M on 07.27.17 at 1:08 pm

@146 Yuriy
..It always fail. What you are saying is indeed correct, however all that “push” will just buy some very expensive months.
It happened before in 1988.
In the end..all ita matters is how much tha joe has in its pocket after child support, booze and strippers.
And it’s not much. Divorce rates will not go down any sooner so the social component remains as destructive to RE as the other side try to patch it up.
..and soon unemployment will skyrocket (since all the good paying blue collar jobs art in construction).
And when personal defaults will skyrocket, then it’s the end. Give it another quarter or so.
Argentina style crash is also what I estimate.
Gringo doesn’t know because gringo never saw it (or gringo forgot his own history). That’s why it’ll come as a “surprise” :)
Real investors and smart speculators will have a golden opportunity.
We live in great times.

#159 El Joko on 07.27.17 at 1:27 pm

Someone explain to me how the cause of high housing prices is “overbuilding”. Increased supply should result in lower prices.

#160 IHCTD9 on 07.27.17 at 1:28 pm

#152 Tazi Bnu on 07.27.17 at 12:32 pm
#142 45north on 07.27.17 at 11:18 am
Even if the Ontario PCs win the next election it wouldn’t be easy to undo the damage.
____________________________________________

Some of the damage is permanent. Most of the damage will take multiple mandates to fix, so it could be impossible. Very little will be easy to fix.

____________

It would take a Politician of legendary status to fix Ontario. If one shows up capable of doing the job, Ontario voters would vote him/her into oblivion just like they always do.

Like you say, it would take multiple (majority) mandates to fix, and that just isn’t going to happen in this Province given its demographics.

This realization has caused me to re-evaluate my voting strategy, and I have come up with the concept of voting “swan dive”. That is voting for the worst possible lefty SJW candidate possible.

You know, one that thinks money is beamed into the Provincial bank account via a space ship orbiting the planet, and worries about gender neutral traffic lights and so on.

Occasional minority luke-warm Conservative mandates will fix nothing and just delay the inevitable. So I’ll likely be voting for Wynne unless someone even worse shows up at the table. The idea is to bring maximum pain to Ontarians as quickly as possible. To bring the Province to its financial and economic knees such that overall taxation is thoroughly intolerable to the vast majority of its Citizens.

When the Province and everyone living in it are screaming in financial pain, the seeds of change may finally take root. Yes I understand how bigly the pain will need to be.

#161 mike from mtl on 07.27.17 at 1:47 pm

@ Eks dee Sipal

I think you’re also missing the most drastic: Norman French. Before then English was this weird Germanic-Celtic mix. Then once the Normans took hold, their French had a massive influence on “modern” English. The difference between Old & Middle English and Modern >1500 English is almost a different language.

Old French for example reads okay to me if a bit crusty and ‘latinate’ I suppose. Now even Middle English to my untrained eyes looks like Dutch, and is, in the scheme of things not all that old. Old English is complete gibberish to me.

Modern English is defiantly a strange hotdog language.

#162 Damifino on 07.27.17 at 1:53 pm

#150 MF

I want to point out The doctor is with immigration canada..not moving down south like everyone thought though.
—————————–

As they say, “if you can’t beat ’em… join ’em”.

I’d like to point out that a lot of people are suddenly scrambling to replace their GP in province where they are extremely thin on the ground.

#163 Howard on 07.27.17 at 1:58 pm

#159 mike from mtl on 07.27.17 at 1:47 pm
@ Eks dee Sipal

I think you’re also missing the most drastic: Norman French. Before then English was this weird Germanic-Celtic mix. Then once the Normans took hold, their French had a massive influence on “modern” English. The difference between Old & Middle English and Modern >1500 English is almost a different language.

Old French for example reads okay to me if a bit crusty and ‘latinate’ I suppose. Now even Middle English to my untrained eyes looks like Dutch, and is, in the scheme of things not all that old. Old English is complete gibberish to me.

Modern English is defiantly a strange hotdog language.

————————————–

Middle English would be Shakespeare.

Doesn’t look like Dutch at all.

Old English is less enigmatic if you have some grounding in modern German.

#164 Chaddywack on 07.27.17 at 2:03 pm

T2 feels that rates have risen too quickly and will take a chunk out of government revenues. Look for T2 to intervene and lower rates again.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3629003/business-report-millennials-may-learn-there-is-no-such-thing-as-free-money/

In your dreams. The government does not set interest rates. — Garth

#165 IHCTD9 on 07.27.17 at 2:08 pm

advise.
.#155 Wrk.dover on 07.27.17 at 1:04 pm
#141 IHCTD9 on 07.27.17 at 11:08 am

Every year you live in a house, it costs you money. I pay 7-800.00 a month to live in my own paid for house all-in. My costs are way low compared to most.

———————————————-

You missed the biggest one after insurance and taxes…. heat.
In my case that comes out of your line item 7, as our heat is do it yourself wood.
_______

You inadvertently mentioned another one I missed – Internet – DOH!

I should add another category:

16.Chronic post-ownership lifestyle inflation.

That covers the sunny day cars, and bulldozers that so often come with home ownership!

#166 Howard on 07.27.17 at 2:09 pm

#144 Eks dee Sipal on 07.27.17 at 11:21 am
Further info to enlighten you today: Latin did not give rise to European languages, quite the opposite in fact, to what you were taught in school (assuming you were paying attention, but based on the commenters on this blog, probably not).

French (and English) are far older than Latin. The Romans did not speak Latin for everyday use, they instead spoke what we can call today Italian or a form of proto-Italian likely derived from the Etruscans. Latin was simply the ‘scientific’ language derived to act as the official language of the empire, for monuments and documents, sort of the like the “Legalese” spoken today.

———————————-

Complete and utter nonsense. All of the Romance languages descended from vulgar/vernacular Latin.

Yes obviously there were people in Gaul (France) prior to Roman times but they were not speaking “French”, which didn’t yet exist. They were mostly Celts and therefore speaking languages related to modern Gaelic and Welsh.

The Etruscan language is long extinct but we can be fairly certain it was not related to Latin and therefore has absolutely nothing to do with modern Italian save the occasional load word.

#167 La Belle Ville on 07.27.17 at 2:09 pm

#159 mike from mtl on 07.27.17 at 1:47 pm

@ Eks dee Sipal

I think you’re also missing the most drastic: Norman French. Before then English was this weird Germanic-Celtic mix. Then once the Normans took hold, their French had a massive influence on “modern” English. The difference between Old & Middle English and Modern >1500 English is almost a different language.

Old French for example reads okay to me if a bit crusty and ‘latinate’ I suppose. Now even Middle English to my untrained eyes looks like Dutch, and is, in the scheme of things not all that old. Old English is complete gibberish to me.

Modern English is defiantly a strange hotdog language.

..
All dressed steamé.

#168 Calgary Rip Off on 07.27.17 at 2:11 pm

Why the sky is falling post?

Unless the interest rates hit 15%, unless you 1)lose your job, 2)took the top that you qualified on the mortgage, 3)spend cash on unnecessary items, nothing to worry about.

Still can get into the market in Calgary:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18356030/107-HIDDEN-RANCH-CL-NW-Hidden-Valley-Calgary-Alberta-T3A6C9-Hidden-Valley

Typical Calgary house, overpriced by about $200K. Been that way since 2005-6. Nothing gonna change unless there is an apocalypse and the whole city implodes. House goes up for sale, unless it is high end, $1 mill+, sold in couple weeks is the pattern.

And the rents? Still the same as 2007 during the boom:
https://www.rentfaster.ca/ab/calgary/rentals/hidden-valley/house/listing-updated-in-hidden-58483

That is like paying for a mortgage. And the guy who owns the place probably bought it for $150K. And now some doof is gonna hand over cash just because the guy who bought the place bought it cheap? Sounds like being serf to a King. No thanks.

You are correct that Vancouver is toast. Solution? Dont live in places where real estate is out of reach. There are lots of options. Marry an American. Live in a cheap part of Canada.

#169 A Reply to #73 M—F— on 07.27.17 at 2:14 pm

“… [W]hat actually makes [Buffett] continue to earn such large sums of money? The only other thing I can think of is his ego. That’s off putting.”

Are you aware that Buffett has donated over $25 billion to charity, and that he has pledged to give away 99% of his massive fortune?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexmorrell/2015/07/06/warren-buffett-unleashes-another-2-8-billion-donation/#6194becb75a1

Warren Buffett is one of the most modest and self-effacing persons you will ever see!

#170 IHCTD9 on 07.27.17 at 2:18 pm

#161 Howard on 07.27.17 at 1:58 pm

Middle English would be Shakespeare.

Doesn’t look like Dutch at all.

Old English is less enigmatic if you have some grounding in modern German.

_____

There is a strong connection between Frisian (spoken in Friesland NL) and English. My Dad used a popular old saying to demonstrate:

“Bread, butter and green cheese is good English and good Fries”

That is because in Frisian it translates to:

“Brea, bûter en griene tsiis is goed Ingelsk en goed Frysk”.

When it is spoken, it sounds even more like English than the already similar written Frisian words indicate.

#171 Howard on 07.27.17 at 2:25 pm

Our friend Tess K. at the Star whipping out a frenzy of articles proofread by realtor parasites.

Another one here: https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/07/27/despite-cooler-market-house-prices-still-gaining-in-some-parts-of-the-gta.html

As mentioned by others here, all of a sudden it’s important to note sales mix! Funny it was never important on the way up.

In Toronto, detached home prices south of Bloor St. west to the Humber River dropped about 20 per cent and the Rosedale/Moore Park area saw a 22 per cent price decline.

But Alexander cautions those area averages could be skewed by the sale of some luxury homes. In the first quarter, the majority of Rosedale sales, for example, were over $5 million, he said.

More typical would be moderate price increases of 7.59 per cent in the zone that includes Riverdale, Greenwood-Coxwell and Blake-Jones. The Junction-High Park area saw a similar rise of about 7 per cent.”

#172 Newcomer on 07.27.17 at 2:45 pm

#144 Eks dee Sipal
——————-
(Apologies to Garth and the blog for being off topic.) That is very interesting. Do you have some links or another venue to talk?

#173 MF on 07.27.17 at 2:47 pm

“Officials in Ottawa fear BoC hiked rates too soon”

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/trudeau-officials-are-said-to-fear-impact-of-speedy-poloz-hikes/wcm/6d71b9d3-5668-4f7f-9421-5684835625e4

-lol..just lol at these morons.

The BoC is about 5 years too late and these “officials” say the puny .25 raise was 1) too early 2) could trigger a downturn.

Speechless and beyond pathetic.

Maybe Buffett can help out the BoC here. Please Morneau we need some more backroom crony capitalism!

MF

#174 MF on 07.27.17 at 2:53 pm

From self-employed to government employee. That’s a consequence. — Garth

It could have been worse. He could have become a realtor.

MF

#175 Tazi Bnu on 07.27.17 at 2:59 pm

#162 Chaddywack on 07.27.17 at 2:03 pm
T2 feels that rates have risen too quickly and will take a chunk out of government revenues. Look for T2 to intervene and lower rates again.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3629003/business-report-millennials-may-learn-there-is-no-such-thing-as-free-money/

In your dreams. The government does not set interest rates. — Garth
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Oh the irony of his comment with that source. It looks like he’s a millennial that won’t learn that there no such thing as free money

#176 Lee on 07.27.17 at 3:06 pm

#169 Howard,

What you fail to accept is that nobody is going to give away properties for nothing in prime areas where there is and has always been demand. As Garth says, all real estate markets are local. Prices in Toronto may crash because undesirable properties will be unable to move, but the good stuff will continue to sell for a good price. I have said over the years on this blog, call me when you find that $750,000 SFH in Forest Hills that you’ve been holding out for as the market climbs.

#177 Howard on 07.27.17 at 3:17 pm

#168 IHCTD9 on 07.27.17 at 2:18 pm

Yes, Frisian is the extant language most closely related to English, sort of mid-way between Dutch and English.

The Scots language is technically closer but is generally considered a dialect of English as opposed to a separate language.

#178 AGuyInVancouver on 07.27.17 at 3:22 pm

#148 Farsyd on 07.27.17 at 12:09 pm
Garth, why the Scheer dig? Please give us the inside scoop? He is the only possible saviour from the T2/Wynne one-two tax til they drop menace.

No dig. An observation. The way forward is probably in progressive conservativism, not social conservativism. — Garth
_________
Exactly this. Why the Conservatives thought Harper 2.0 would be a winning strategy is mystifying.

#179 Looney Baloney on 07.27.17 at 4:38 pm

The BAT is dead! Long live the BAT
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/bat-dead-republicans-kill-bordar-adjustment-tax

#180 Mark on 07.27.17 at 4:48 pm

“Someone explain to me how the cause of high housing prices is “overbuilding”. Increased supply should result in lower prices.”

When large amounts of brand-new, un-depreciated supply are delivered to market, the sales mix itself is changed because of the large supply of significantly more expensive (ie: higher percentile) units that are in the mix. This causes the Realtor transactional averages to ‘rise’, even though individual identical properties are stagnant or even falling in value.

This is what has happened in most of Canada in the post-2013 era (2013 being the peak of the Canadian housing market). Prices peaked (and plateaued) in 2013, but the Realtors are gleefully reporting that their overall sales averages have risen because they’re increasingly transacting in units that are significantly newer and more expensive (ie: in higher percentiles of the overall market) than they did previously.

Unfortunately there’s a few people who mistake this to mean that prices have systemically risen on all RE, rather than understanding that the rise in Realtor averages has been driven by a drastically changed mix. Some lenders, of course, use the Realtor numbers (or the tragically flawed Teranet numbers) to “mark” their books and appear to be much more credit-worthy and solvent than they really are. As does the CMHC.

#181 Stan Broock on 07.27.17 at 4:51 pm

#5 CMHC not really worried on 07.26.17 at 6:29 pm
I doubt that CMHC is actually worried.
I think it is just keeping up appearances of a concerned institution.

It was only weeks ago that CMHC decided it has *too much* money in reserve, so it gave $4B surplus to the government. (Something they had no obligation to do.)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-special-dividend-1.4184244

————————————

CHCM is arrogant. and stupid. This is just bunch of government incompetent employed who will do ANYTHING fr a career.

You think they have the brains to understand the doo-doo they are in?

Not really.

I watched a video of their CEO. Scary. The guy (who has not guts to pursue private career) was really confident and convinced that they do really good thing by insuring ultra-subprime mortgages at the expense of taxpayers!

Now they return dividend to the government!

OMG. This lase is so f…ed it is not funny any more.

This thing blow up will be really epic.

#182 Raging Ranter on 07.27.17 at 4:53 pm

Chaddywack isn’t necessarily wrong. Since when do DoF officials leak criticisms of BoC policy to the press? I have not seen that happen since late 1993, when the new Liberal government was scheming to get rid of John Crow. We all know how that ended – Crow was out and incoming Governor Thiessen had to accept higher inflation targets as a condition of employment. Let’s not exaggerate BoC independence. They are only as independent as the DoF will tolerate. A clash between Poloz and Trudeau – culminating in a replay of the Coyne Affair – is a real possibility. This was a deliberate, strategic leak, and a shot across Poloz’s bow. Yes, I think Trudeau and Morneau are that nuts.

You know little. This is a media creation. There will be no clash and no change in monetary policy. — Garth

#183 yup on 07.27.17 at 5:04 pm

Every year you live in a house, it costs you money. I pay 7-800.00 a month to live in my own paid for house all-in. My costs are way low compared to most.

……….

yup, i’m lower than that. House paid.

However, this generation will not have that opportunity. Housing has disconnected from incomes. DRAMATICALLY so. Genuinely feel sorry for our youths

The ‘cost’ of a paid-for house is not just property tax, maintenance, utilities, insurance, accrued interest paid plus renovations, but all of the equity you have in there times 6% annually. A shocker. — Garth

#184 TheDood on 07.27.17 at 5:07 pm

#51 Garth is not god on 07.26.17 at 8:20 pm
Garth,

I can guaranty you that there is only one more rate hike ( removal of oil insurance cut) . If BOC believed that the rates will go up then there wont be any tightening of regulation ( 2% stress test ). There is no way we can go back to old interest rate regime because there is too much debt out there in the world. Only way to get back to normal is to restart the game with world money (SDR ) and it is not ready yet. My advice is to starts buying assets after six to eight months because when reset happens you have some thing solid and not the funny duck.
_________________________________________

Really? So you’re saying keep interest rates low;

1) to protect dummies that are drowning in debt because they don’t understand simple math?

2) so prices can keep spiraling out of control creating even more debt because most Canadians are lemmings and always do what everyone else does, instead of think for themselves?

I think not. Let the indebted swirl in the toilet bowl!

#185 Stan Broock on 07.27.17 at 5:14 pm

#82 M on 07.26.17 at 10:03 pm
@59 Andre,

TSX (and the rest of CDN market will be a big smoky hole in the ground.
Canada in the last 15 years WAS ONLY housing.
We’ll see a 2/3 decline in the market over the next few years.
—————————————
I second to that.

Since 2004-2005 nothing else than housing and derivative/related services existed, at least in GTA.

Commodities and grains will do just fine. But that is like 10 % of the economy. The rest?

I think people underestimate the degree to which the economy is screwed, we we handing by few threads which are getting tin-er by the hour.
The most important one being the exceptional and incredible stupidity and gullibility of the general public as it relates to housing.

Extraordinary incompetence and naivety.

I will go further and say that this probably would have not been possible in any other country.

Exemplary case in the economy books of the future.

#186 WUL on 07.27.17 at 5:18 pm

For the hundredth time I have seen the following from Mark:

“This is what has happened in most of Canada in the post-2013 era (2013 being the peak of the Canadian housing market). Prices peaked (and plateaued) in 2013, but the Realtors are gleefully reporting that their overall sales averages have risen because they’re increasingly transacting in units that are significantly newer and more expensive (ie: in higher percentiles of the overall market) than they did previously.”

Often this is coupled with the statement that Calgary prices peaked in 2011.

Absent a citation or reference to data, and I know none has been forthcoming, nor will any ever follow, the statements are meaningless.

Mark, come on. Some intelligence rests with you but this is tiresome.

Please. Prove the facts you rely upon or your opinion is worthless.

Thanks.

#187 Stan Broock on 07.27.17 at 5:19 pm

#181 yup on 07.27.17 at 5:04 pm

—————————–
You think next generations will wipe your baby boomer butt for peanuts with you being rich by having a cardboard house or a glass condo?

You will be in for a surprise my friend, you will be in for a surprise…

#188 Gregor Samsa on 07.27.17 at 5:43 pm

#184 WUL

Mark of full of Bovine you know what, shown by the actual data: http://www.chpc.biz/calgary-housing.html

Best to ignore him.

#189 Jonah on 07.27.17 at 6:22 pm

People are not panicking so much of increase in interest rates but now due to “fear of missing out” (not selling and pocketing gains).

#190 Raging Ranter on 07.27.17 at 6:47 pm

You know little. This is a media creation. There will be no clash and no change in monetary policy. — Garth

I very much hope you are right.

#191 Cloudy on 07.27.17 at 6:52 pm

#158 IHCTD9 on 07.27.17 at 1:28 pm

I’m sad to say you are definitely on to something. BC is going that way too. I’ll join you in the race and swan dive vote into the pacific.

#192 maxx on 07.27.17 at 7:16 pm

#17 Cloudy on 07.26.17 at 6:57 pm

“I’m concerned that my fears that the government will do whatever it takes to keep the party going have mostly been confirmed by Morneau:

“We recognize how important this is to Canadians,” he told BNN in an interview Friday. “I expect for the entire time that I’m in the role of Minister of Finance – the entire time we’re in government – we’re going to stay closely focused on this.”
“There’s no time at which you say we will stop being vigilant,” he added. “We want to make sure that the market is healthy. We want to make sure people’s big investment – their housing investment – is safe and secure as best we can.”

I read this as they want to slow gains down to create some stability but will do whatever is in their power to keep prices relatively propped up, continuing their war on savers and people prudent with their borrowing practices.”

I’m not concerned du tout. I read it as government messaging that whatever happens along the healing yellow brick road of rising rates, they did all possible to “help” protect housing “investments”.

Far too much of the proletariat is marinated in debt to the point where it’s become normal. Borrowed cash is now servicing much debt as opposed to doing “growthy” stuff in the economy. In short, the average consumer is completely pooped. Exhau$ted. And quite pooched.

The “war on savers” is cheap, soporific prose for realtards and re industry shills.

Savers will never stop saving.
The prudent won’t increase their borrowing.

Many will continue joining them……the smart ones, at any rate.

#193 Dissident on 07.27.17 at 9:58 pm

Garth, hurry up and post. Its 10pm! :D

#194 Moller on 07.28.17 at 10:26 am

Hate to feed the troll, but credit needs to be given to where it’s due…

Apparently, Mark was somewhat right about the tech labour market in Canada.

“Canadian cities ranked amongst the highest for quality of employees, but also hit the bottom of the list for wages.”
https://betterdwelling.com/canadas-top-notch-tech-employees-are-57-cheaper-than-the-worst-americans/