Wishful thinking

Woohoo. Eighty cents.

It’s been over a year since our dollar was worth this much against the greenback, and good news is bad news for the real estate market. The loonie has surged in recent weeks because (a) the economy doesn’t suck as much anymore and (b) the Bank of Canada is hot to raise rates – again. So the dollar has gained 10% since early May, and become one of the best-performing currencies on the planet.

The bulk of those gains have come on hawkish statements by the central bank, then the rate increase we saw earlier this month. There’s now an 80% chance being given by the market (based on overnight swaps) that rates will up again this year – probably in October. So, yes, the Bank of Canada benchmark will officially double in 2017.

The bond market is also aroused. Look at the yield on a Government of Canada benchmark five-year bond. It’s a virtual monetary erection.

The return on this piece of debt has travelled from 0.9% in June to 1.563% this week. That an increase of more than 70%, which is yuuuge. It pretty much guarantees the price of fixed-rate mortgages will be going up. Again.

Now, to be realistic, rates are still stupid cheap. We are miles away from anything that could be called ‘normal’ by historic standards. But events of the past few months have clearly shown the era of deflation worries, emergency interest rates and central bank stimulus are coming to an end. The doomers blew it. There was no reason to hoard gold, toilet paper or tuna after all. And the crypto-currency dudes will likely end up being just as Hoovered.

In short, 2.5% five-year mortgages are done and gone. Every renewal here on in will probably be at a higher rate. And as the cost of money rises, the value of residential real estate will fall. The negative correlation between the two has been tight and irrefutable. Those who say “things will bounce back in September” must have a house to sell, because there’s no credible reason to believe current conditions will reverse.

Here’s Alicia, for example, a twenty-something realtor in the satellite city of Guelph – where prices exploded as GTA refugees poured in, causing a Starbucks eruption and an unfortunate shortage of man-bun elastics.

Hi Garth – Guelph has been impacted big time. Significant changes the first week of May…. Multiple Offers died almost overnight… very palpable. Properties are now sitting on market for 35-50 days.

A sign of the times…. neighbours had sold their home, was to close in 2 weeks, moving overseas in 2 weeks, deal fell through, they want to sell it before they leave and are freaking out. Although the warning signs have been going off for a while…. the multiple offers that we had in winter along with list prices were simply unsustainable… When I spoke to realtors in the office about pricing and multiple offers etc many thought “this is the new normal “ …  Couldn’t believe they were saying that.

There are a few things that bother me about this profession but one in particular is how many realtors spew facts and info as if they know it all – like they have a crystal ball… posting on their Facebook “the market is balancing out”, “it is a good time to buy”. “buy now before prices go up again in the Sept” … unbelievable.

And here’s GreaterFool correspondent, real estate broker and owner of www.Listing.ca, Alex Prikhodco, tossing us some of the latest data that the local Toronto real estate board is too chicken to publish. By the way, this is how the board’s newly-minted boss, Tim Syrianos, just described the market:

“We are in a period of flux that often follows major government policy announcements pointed at the housing market. On one hand, consumer survey results tell us many households are very interested in purchasing a home in the near future, but some of these would-be buyers seem to be temporarily on the sidelines waiting to see the real impact of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan. On the other hand, we have existing home owners who are listing their home because they feel price growth may have peaked. The end result has been a better supplied market and a moderating annual pace of price growth.”

Hmm. So here’s what a “moderating pace of growth” looks like in terms of detached house prices over the last three months:

Toronto: April $1.275 million, July $1.050 million – a decline of 17.6%.
Mississauga: April $1.11 million, July $979,000 – a decline of 12%.
Vaughan: April $1.435 million, July $1.2 million – a decline of 16.5%
Richmond Hill: April $1.624 million, July $1.275 million – a decline of 21.5%
Newmarket: April $1.125 million, July $850,000 – a decline of 32%.

It’s worth noting that Richmond Hill prices are now back at summer of ’16 levels, and the days-on-market has more than doubled in almost all regions. And, yes, this is with just one Bank of Canada rate increase and only one uptick in mortgage rates. Still to come is the new stress test that all homebuyers will have to pass, regardless of whether they have a fat down payment or not – and the continued tightening of monetary policy.

In summary: your house may have just lost 20% of its value, but it’s in Canadian dollars. Woohoo.

 

 

183 comments ↓

#1 Chopper on 07.24.17 at 6:31 pm

First to tell you it is Slow in the rural areas, prices shedding $50-$25K and still not moving. DOM 6-8weeks, it is blowing up people.

#2 Alan on 07.24.17 at 6:32 pm

IMF readings show that Canada is now the fourth most overvalued real estate market in the world. Do people understand how big the world is? Homes in Haiti are better value according to them.

https://betterdwelling.com/imf-canada-overvalued-homes-g7-fourth-globally/

#3 MSM-Free Zone on 07.24.17 at 6:35 pm

Tim Syrianos failed to mention what is completely obvious to the most casual of observers:

GTA Speckers have suddenly scattered like cockroaches under a fridge.

#4 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.24.17 at 6:36 pm

I didn’t know it triggers the boomer class so much when I get the #1 post. I received quite a bit of belly aching about this yesterday. If I knew that, I would try to get it more often. LOL

Oh about the 80 cents. God Bless The Great Trudeau. Our currency is rising faster than women’s hormones when they catch a glimpse of his golden locks. Thank goodness for his strong and stable economic stewardship that has relegated the days of Harper recession, Conservative mismanagement and 70 cent Loonie to the past.

I’ll stop there because I don’t want Smoking (too much substance) Man to have a stroke.

Now for some replies…

#5 CL on 07.24.17 at 6:36 pm

“It’s a virtual monetary erection.”

hahahaha. Yes, I have been watching the 5 year closely and telling people the same but not surprisingly, most do not understand the correlations. While I do not defend those who sell real estate, what Alicia said about know it all’s simply because they sell real estate is common among all industries really….especially among TNL’sATB!!

#6 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.24.17 at 6:39 pm

@98 Raging Ranter: “Screwed Millennial, your attitude is best described as “pissy”, and yet you seem surprised when others respond to you in kind. Also, how many Millennials shop at Sears? I thought so. Maybe your generation of Amazon shopping hedonists put those ladies out of a job. Since you enjoy playing the generational blame game, there you go. I’m neither boomer nor Mill, so don’t bother responding with some “you boomers” garbage.”

—————————————-

You sure as sh*t sound like a boomer. You must have missed the cutoff by a year.

https://imgur.com/7i1UHyN

Millenials are too busy being squeezed for wages by 3rd world TFW slave labour, while trying to compete with Chinese millionaires for shelter, to have the luxury of shopping at Sears.

#7 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.24.17 at 6:41 pm

@ #206 nitro

I didn’t high tail it anywhere. You must have missed my repeated replies to Garth

#29
#37
#50

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.24.17 at 6:42 pm

two pictures in two days of dogs eating dogs

#9 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.24.17 at 6:44 pm

@#243 jess

#29 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.23.17 at 5:26 pm

This might be helpful
https://turbotax.intuit.ca/tips/the-small-business-deduction-does-your-corporation-qualify-6143

“Canadian corporation” doesn’t mean any corporation operating in Canada. To qualify for the Small Business Deduction, a corporation has to be a Canadian-controlled private corporation (CCPC).

To be classed as a Canadian-controlled private corporation, all of the following conditions have to be met according to Chapter 1 of the T4012 – T2 Corporation Income Tax Guide:
https://turbotax.intuit.ca/tips/the-small-business-deduction-does-your-corporation-qualify-6143

———————————————–

jess my dear you made the same mistake Garth made. Yes Alberta Guy has the CCPC. That wasn’t my issue. The issue was that cheap ass corporations are too cheap to even put Canadians on the payroll anymore. Meaning the company that was “employing” Alberta Guy.

You shoulda read #29 and #27

#10 TheSpangler on 07.24.17 at 6:47 pm

I laugh so hard knowing people paid over $1M to live in some parts of Newmarket, like this;

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18374125/894-NORSAN-CRT-Newmarket-Ontario-L3X1K9-Stonehaven-Wyndham

Really, it’s all shopping malls and subdivisions, people need to get a life.

#11 TurnerNation on 07.24.17 at 6:48 pm

Notice the marxist spin everywhere. ON is test rolling this out. Now the push into AB.
(And were the doctors’ corp. money now will go.)

The cries of…if they just had a minimum income…

If they just had a minimum income…they’d be POOR! Which is what the UN has decided for us.
Flip it…$15 will be the Maximum income for all:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/food-insecurity-hunger-1.4216050

“What’s needed, they say, is a basic income guarantee to help eliminate the growing number of people living in poverty.”

Whereas our elites send only ‘vaccines’ to 3rd world countries. Never food.

#12 Calgary Census on 07.24.17 at 6:48 pm

According to the City of Calgary census wast week:

“The number of vacant dwelling units in Calgary is now 23,553, an increase of 2,710 from the 20,843 vacancies in 2016.”

That is a 13% increase.
I still see many condo towers still being built.

#13 OttawaMike on 07.24.17 at 6:49 pm

Stuff is still moving here in O town.

Those GTA stats are all skewed by the multi million dollar properties dropping in price.

Cherry picking season was over 2 weeks ago. Why are you still cherry picking stats?

#14 Entrepreneur on 07.24.17 at 6:51 pm

Now we need Pink Snow is Falling house pricing here on the west coast. Wonder how David Eby, NDP, is accomplishing on those loopholes and money laundering scams? Hopefully soon as everyone here has $$$ signs in their eyes and feeling so greedy and rich.

#15 M on 07.24.17 at 6:53 pm

Canada is an economy based on debt ONLY.
When including RE related financials CDN GDP is 70% housing.
That loonie will come tumbling down overnight once the reality of the RE nuclear blast sinks in.
T2 will pose naked for playboy (I bet he’s shaved) then scramble to bail out the big 6.
This is the ONLY outcome.
loonie down, yields up, gold up, everything down. TSX will go half by the end of 2019 or so. Probably earlier.
The only way a debt bubble (in RE) will deleverage.
Unless some believe that Polosz has a bigger printing press than Jenny Depends (the Fed)

#16 Porsche on 07.24.17 at 6:55 pm

“the market is balancing out”, “it is a good time to buy”. “buy now before prices go up again

……………………………………………………………………….

That’s like the longs desperately typing on chat boards “The stock is just consolidating” when the pump is over and the dump is on.

#17 M on 07.24.17 at 6:57 pm

..just what I said. Dino is dead but still walking Check #2 comment.
.. those are the suckers being caught in.
Then is the stampede.

#18 april on 07.24.17 at 7:01 pm

Auzzie Jurock said recently, not that we believe him, that Van houses have risen “a measly .4%”. Ross Kay recently said Van houses had declined “27 %”. No wonder people are confused.

#19 april on 07.24.17 at 7:03 pm

#1 – What “rural areas”?

#20 Fran Deck Jr. on 07.24.17 at 7:07 pm

I know people in Newmarket and they have been telling me that housing prices always go up. The equity in their home has been like an ATM for them … so, if it’s true that Newmarket real estate has lost a third of it’s value since April, well, that’s significant and unbelievable. What will happen in 2018 with further increases to e BOC prime lending rate?

It was only a few months ago that I was hearing stories about people selling their Newmarket homes for close to $2million … seriously … and homes in 1973 Richmond Hill subdivisions were selling for $1.6million … do you know what you can buy in the States for $1.6million? Who the hell would want to live in the 905? … seriously … it’s a wasteland of bad traffic and fast food restaurants.

Anyways, I figure that the carnage will be much worse than the MSM is indicating because I don’t have confidence in the Canadian economy or job market … ask the people at Proctor and Gamble what their plans are and just wait a few years until AI takes over … the worst is coming.

#21 rainclouds on 07.24.17 at 7:21 pm

#6 screwed “Millenials are too busy being squeezed for wages by 3rd world TFW slave labour, while trying to compete with Chinese millionaires for shelter, to have the luxury of shopping at Sears.”

And who exactly allows this to happen? Politicians. The antidote? VOTE for change……….. Time for the next generation to get their heads out of their smart phones and realize they are being played.

#22 Mark on 07.24.17 at 7:23 pm

“Now, to be realistic, rates are still stupid cheap. “

Just how are rates “stupid cheap” when the economy is likely in YoY deflation at this point? If YoY prices are deflating at 1%, then 2% financing is a real rate of 3%, which is pretty expensive given real GDP growth is pretty hard pressed even to hit that.

As it stands, however, the Canadian economy is not in good shape. Employment is abysmal once you adjust for quality. The surging dollar is kyboshing any plans by the exporters to seriously ramp up investment and killing off hopes of a revival in the Alberta oilpatch. No recovery in sight for the resource sector. Housing is going down badly at this point after the 3-4 year plateau where there still was some vibrance in newly delivered supply.

At the next BoC policy rate decision, Poloz will have numbers that clearly show the Canadian economy experiencing CPI deflation. If he raises, or even keeps the rate “as is”, it will be pretty hard to have much faith, as an investor, in the Canadian economy or Canadian investments. It would be incredibly reckless behavior, to say the least, to pursue additional tightening when the data is quite resounding and clear.

#23 Ian on 07.24.17 at 7:26 pm

Did anyone else notice that zolo.ca stopped posting its market stats?! I was on there today and it appears to be gone. Trying to conceal bearish news?!

#24 Linda on 07.24.17 at 7:30 pm

Globalization & automation have changed the job world for sure. Amid all the benefits – inexpensive stuff from other countries, able to eat fresh fruit/veggies year round due to imports from other countries etc. there are also drawbacks, including as any Millennial can tell you competitive labor from other countries. For the consumer, this is a real bargain – virtually unlimited choice of suppliers/goods & due to the competition for the consumer dollar, costs are very low. For the worker, the new reality can be either very rewarding or very challenging depending on where you live/work. For sure, education choices & work ethic is more important than ever before. You choose a career path that is going obsolete, you could end up with student debt & very likely no job in your profession either. Ouch. You choose a path that is an up & coming demand area & work like the dickens, you may well be one of the 1% before you know it with doors flying open wherever you go. No pressure kids!

#25 Sam the Sham on 07.24.17 at 7:36 pm

#4 Screwed Canadian Millenial

“God Bless The Great Trudeau. Our currency is rising faster than women’s hormones when they catch a glimpse of his golden locks.”
———————————————————
As T2 seems to want to be the drum majorette at the head of every gay pride parade in the country are you sure it’s woman’s hormones?

#26 oncebittwiceshy on 07.24.17 at 7:42 pm

#13 OttawaMike on 07.24.17 at 6:49 pm
Stuff is still moving here in O town.

Those GTA stats are all skewed by the multi million dollar properties dropping in price.

Cherry picking season was over 2 weeks ago. Why are you still cherry picking stats?

Hang on there, Mikey, hasn’t the media been heralding these same statistics as real estate climbed to incredible heights over the last few years.

It’s funny how multi-million dollar home sales raises everyones property values on the way up but can’t be used on the way down.

#27 Happening now on 07.24.17 at 7:47 pm

Every one of your posts is now centered on the Toronto area….try looking at Yvr and its surroundings….no price drops and still multiple offers everywhere….even Gabriola Island….i enquired about a place last week..listed at 499….multiple offers, went for 575 !!

#28 Jungle on 07.24.17 at 7:53 pm

I don’t think your numbers are correct.
The “average” detach house in “Toronto”

April $1.578M
June $1.386M
__________
-$192,000 from peek

-12.1% (approx)

#29 Look to Vancouver GTAers on 07.24.17 at 7:54 pm

No offence, but prospective buyers in the GTA might actually see a rebound in Fall if you look at Vancouver’s example.

Once the BC Foreign Buyers Tax was implemented, this site spoke of the collapse in sales and the turn of the market. The market was cooked – it was inevitable.

Yet, after 6 months, prices had not substantively changed, sales started to uptick, and the condo and townhouse markets went on fire (and still are). Foreign interest also started to uptick as the tax was simply the cost of doing business.

The Ontario provincial government could repeal any part of the 16 point Fairness Program, which was the real driver of crushing the market. It had nothing to do with market sentiment or rates. A 0.25% interest rate never factored into the cooling of the market as it came much much later, and was a ‘surprise.’

Just like in BC, when things looked like it was cooling, the former government introduced the loan program to keep the market moving….could easily happen in Ontario, especially if the declines are too steep.

What the government giveth, it can taketh.

And please do not say that the OSFI changes will be the market killer – we all saw that the new 5 year stress fixed qualifying rate did nothing to the stop the market in the Fall as prices went through the roof. I have zero, yes zero, faith that the proposed changes will do anything as buyers always find a way around it and any provincial action could counteract the effect of the change, IF implemented. We have seen 10 plus years of efforts to cool the market, only to see higher and higher prices.

#30 Apple Overpriced on 07.24.17 at 7:56 pm

Time to reprice your products Apple Canada ! Currently $449 CAD for a $329 USD ipad in Canada? That’s 36½ % higher than the US price. With an 80¢ dollar it should be 25% higher or $411.25 .When you look at much higher priced items like the new ipad pro’s , laptops and imac’s, they are currently making out like bandit’s by charging an antiquated exchange rate. Kind of like Real Estate I guess, if people are willing to pay high prices they’ll be more than happy to take your money until enough is enough.

#31 Spock on 07.24.17 at 8:03 pm

#Screwed Canadian Millenial:

>>> I didn’t know it triggers the boomer class so much when I get the #1 post. I received quite a bit of belly aching about this yesterday. If I knew that, I would try to get it more often. LOL <<>> Thank goodness for his strong and stable economic stewardship that has relegated the days of Harper recession, Conservative mismanagement and 70 cent Loonie to the past. <<<

No wonder you are screwed as a millenial with such intellect.

Carry on.

#32 Danny on 07.24.17 at 8:11 pm

Garth…another eye opening blog.
Keep quoting the pep talk motivational false news by the Real Estate Cartel.
Obviously they don’t mention any substantial historical new numbers …as they do when prices soar…just let’s go get them team…and…we know the real estate team has thousands of members with blind loyalty to the one’s at the top who get their cut with every sale.
Bloor and Islington new 3 tower Condo..by TRIDEL…..last tower 45 floors high sold in a week this summer…except for 5 units…..still available…….all on 41st floor. Curious?
Until you read this about bad luck belief about number “41” ( as you say often buying real estate is on emotion )

“Name Numerology for 41 implies that you become intoxicated with your achievements. You consider nothing is impossible. You take risks as if it is your second nature. It some times leads you to failure and defeat.

You are fond of sex. You like variety. At times, it makes you lose discretion. You fail to hide your interior. This makes you an easy target for your enemies. It happens to you when numerology for 41 is afflicted.”
So bad that in Vancouver..new bylaw not allowing the number 4 to be excluded in floor numbers.

#33 rainclouds on 07.24.17 at 8:15 pm

Boy wonder and Wild Bill genuflect in the Emerald City

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/07/24/canadian-finance-minister-gloats-about-crony-capitalism-in-warren-buffetts-bailout-of-home-capital-group/

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.24.17 at 8:16 pm

@#12 Calgary Census
“I still see many condo towers still being built….”
******

They’re committed for 3 years from the first shovel to the last unit sold.
Cant stop now……..until the unsold units reach 30,000.

#35 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.24.17 at 8:18 pm

@#18 April
Ozzie Jurock has been pumping real estate since Trudeau junior was a naughty gleam in his fathers eye.
Where was his “deal of the week”? Pheonix?

#36 I DON'T LIKE RUBES on 07.24.17 at 8:24 pm

#4 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.24.17 at 6:36 pm
I didn’t know it triggers the boomer class so much when I get the #1 post. I received quite a bit of belly aching about this yesterday. If I knew that, I would try to get it more often. LOL

Oh about the 80 cents. God Bless The Great Trudeau. Our currency is rising faster than women’s hormones when they catch a glimpse of his golden locks. Thank goodness for his strong and stable economic stewardship that has relegated the days of Harper recession, Conservative mismanagement and 70 cent Loonie to the past.

I’ll stop there because I don’t want Smoking (too much substance) Man to have a stroke.

Now for some replies…

YOU’RE A MORON.

#37 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.24.17 at 8:32 pm

@#25 Sam the Sham

As T2 seems to want to be the drum majorette at the head of every gay pride parade in the country are you sure it’s woman’s hormones?

—————————

You seen the way Ivanka looks at Trudeau? Donnie was jealous. Why do you think he imposed tariffs on Canadian lumber? I’m sure when T2 waves his locks, he even gives Smoking (too much substance) Man a little tickle down there.

#38 Securing the Biggest Investment on 07.24.17 at 8:36 pm

The federal finance minister’s comments on Home Capital Group and securing Canadian’s biggest investment – housing. No comment necessary.

“During an unguarded moment in the interview with BNN, Morneau prided himself of the arrangement. But first he explained just how crucial Canada’s housing bubble is to the government: “I expect for the entire time that I’m in the role of Minister of Finance – the entire time we’re in government – we’re going to stay closely focused on this,” he assured his citizens. “We want to make sure people’s big investment… is safe and secure as best we can,” he said, even as the government is trying to cool the housing market.

And then Morneau got to Home Capital Group and let this slip:

“We obviously wanted to see a private-sector solution for Home Capital. The company seems to have found itself an approach that will be successful. I will say that it was probably not a coincidence that the Prime Minister and I were in Seattle meeting with Warren Buffett a few weeks before Warren Buffett came in and decided to make an investment in Home Capital.”

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/07/24/canadian-finance-minister-gloats-about-crony-capitalism-in-warren-buffetts-bailout-of-home-capital-group/

#39 Asterix1 on 07.24.17 at 8:38 pm

#29 Look to Vancouver GTAers on 07.24.17 at 7:54 pm
– “No offence, but prospective buyers in the GTA might actually see a rebound in Fall if you look at Vancouver’s example”.
– “And please do not say that the OSFI changes will be the market killer”
__________________________________________

GTA market is very different from Vancouver. You cant compare them. There shall be no rebound this Fall. Sure, people keep saying how Vancouver prices went up after the 15% tax was taken into account, well, they are going down now.

Of course a +2% stress test will drastically affect the market! Not sure if you were aware, but, 80% of mortgages in Canada are conventional, uninsured ones.

This bubble has already popped, its going to get nasty, very fast.

#40 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.24.17 at 8:42 pm

RAINCLOUDS: And who exactly allows this to happen? Politicians. The antidote? VOTE for change……….. Time for the next generation to get their heads out of their smart phones and realize they are being played.
———————————————————
Who else are they to vote for? All the parties have the same goals. Vote for change..by voting in a rigged system where only those with the inside connections are allowed to be on the ballot? They could endeavour to establish a parallel political system. It would be completely legitimate but the ‘crown’ would crush them like a fly. It’s not the Millennials fault; they are trapped in the same system that you are.

#41 young & foolish on 07.24.17 at 8:43 pm

“Look out, the sky is falling!” … more gloom and doom comments today ….

So, be the smart guy and don’t buy. Rent instead. Let the landlord subsidise your lifestyle, hehehe.

#42 Reximus on 07.24.17 at 8:45 pm

Alex Prikhodco has called every GTA r.e. ‘bubble burst’ of the last 8 years, so he’s got that going for him

#43 BC's Coming Approach on 07.24.17 at 8:47 pm

#27 Happening now on 07.24.17 at 7:47 pm
Every one of your posts is now centered on the Toronto area….try looking at Yvr and its surroundings….no price drops and still multiple offers everywhere….even Gabriola Island….i enquired about a place last week..listed at 499….multiple offers, went for 575 !!

————

It is a tale of two cities – GTA does down, while YVR remains untouchable. Expect more focus on the GTA because nothing is happening to cool prices in YVR.

For those that want to see where the new NDP government stands on housing listen to the new housing minister at 29.30 minutes:

http://globalnews.ca/bc/program/the-jon-mccomb-show

#44 an average house in Newmarket? on 07.24.17 at 8:57 pm

detached is $850,000? WHAT!

this generation is screwed

#45 common sense on 07.24.17 at 9:00 pm

#58 Newmarket

Was in Bolton this past weekend, 2 detached just sold in 1 week for the same….$850,000.

#46 ccc on 07.24.17 at 9:01 pm

With a bit of luck the bond market will turn out to be a good lover and manage to keep that bone(r) up for a while … Woof!

#47 Math is Fun on 07.24.17 at 9:01 pm

Not that I don’t think a correction is at hand, but Richmond Hill prices are not back to Summer 2016 prices.

According to Zolo:

Detached houses are up 4% in price.
Townhouses are up 15% in price.
Condos are up 19% in price.

Market mix is different, but prices are not the same as 12 months ago.

-Math is Fun!

TREB stats: July, 2017 – $1,275,000. July, 2016 – $1,267,500. Close enough. — Garth

#48 Mike on 07.24.17 at 9:07 pm

#29 Look to Vancouver….

You are correct. Look at Vancouver. It all came back up. This GTA slide is temporary, as was Vancouver’s.

Canadians can pay anything their realtors can tell them. Richie rich Canadians!! Paying 10x their income is not much to ask from Canadians.

#49 People watching people on 07.24.17 at 9:12 pm

Floating through the mass of humanity at the Dome today before a Jays game, heard more than one Joe Sixpack talking about realestate. Conversations mostly went something like, what did so-and-so expect, it won’t sell in this market at that price. The Sheeple have been awaken to the notion that there is something wrong in this one horse town.

After 2 frenetic weeks of showings for my rental condo which is on sale, the requests have dried up. Not one sole on the weekend. Landlord is going to have to shave a couple hun off the price I think. 2 properties that listed after this one, and undercut as well, sold last week. As my RE agent buddy said, condos in TO are still moving briskly… hardwood and stainless steel help though.

#50 Shawn on 07.24.17 at 9:21 pm

With a nation wide explosion of listings creating an extreme surplus of housing (contrary to the narrative only a few months ago) and the velocity of the recent price decline, a 30-50% rapid price crash might be unavoidable.

#51 Raj on 07.24.17 at 9:22 pm

Those who think that the GTA will follow VAN and will recover soon are in delusion.GTA market is much bigger than Van and is governed more by demand and supply.
The temporary spike we saw during Jan-April was due to some excessive speculations which has been replaced by fear now.

#52 Chaddywack on 07.24.17 at 9:28 pm

“If you don’t want to live in a city that beautiful, with that much demand, umm.. then maybe you should live somewhere else”

-Vancouver House Pimp Cam Good Circa 2011

#53 ANON on 07.24.17 at 9:29 pm

One is left wondering about that 20% value lost, is it under the sofa, under the carpet, where did they lose it? Because
BigD worries have a tendency to rise pretty sharply when value is lost.
It should be somewhere around here, pretty sure it was there a few months ago. Someone better bring a searchlight, stat! :)

#54 Don Regan on 07.24.17 at 9:36 pm

Whats happened in 16 months in this area of Vancouvers
West side. This house was listed at either $3.8 or $3.9
in January 2016. Back on the market last week for $3.2
MLS R 2188742 7825 Laburnum Street

Cant remember when I have seen so many for Sale signs
in this neighborhood.

#55 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.24.17 at 9:36 pm

The majority of high school drop out Realtors are so delusional. Things will somehow pick up in September. LOL what happened to the changes will have no effect and Prices would be flat? Then after prices CRASHED 18% the new lie becomes prices will go back up in September? LOL. Everyone is hearing how buyers are not closing and even under the threat of being sued. Why would anyone want to buy when others are running away from buying including REALTORS who are not closing themsleves. LOL. you dirty shyster lying shills with six weeks training are giving people advise on buying a home. Most of you are not smart enough to give directions. I can’t understand why anyone would believe a realtor especially a millennial realtor who has no idea what happened in 1990 and think the GTA is immune to economic reality. The Crash will hit realtor millennials HARD! with many having to go back to working after losing it all. HAPPY Happy Housing Crash Everyone Everyone! :-)

#56 InvestorsFriend on 07.24.17 at 9:38 pm

Alberta Politics and Economy

Alberta conservatives have reunited to try to defeat the evil NP next time before the NDP messes up the economy too badly.

Speaking of Wishful Thinking. Sadly for the conservatives the Alberta economy is roaring back from recession. Not boom times but definitely climbing up.

http://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/

I predict NDP majority next time as well. Biggest mistake the Conservatives could make is to try to tell people they made a mistake in voting NDP. That will just get people’s backs up. The last straw to get the NDP in last time was a group of businessman and the University of Alberta chair of the Board warning people not to vote NDP. U of A guy had to resign over that.

#57 rknusa on 07.24.17 at 9:47 pm

re: And then Morneau got to Home Capital Group and let this slip:

“We obviously wanted to see a private-sector solution for Home Capital. The company seems to have found itself an approach that will be successful. I will say that it was probably not a coincidence that the Prime Minister and I were in Seattle meeting with Warren Buffett a few weeks before Warren Buffett came in and decided to make an investment in Home Capital.”

Morneau probably guaranteed a government bailout for Warren if Home Capital fails, Buffet purchase was used to assure the markets everything ok

scumbags

#58 NoName on 07.24.17 at 9:50 pm

Interesting read

https://www.engadget.com/2017/07/24/india-ban-driverless-cars-protect-jobs/

#59 NoName on 07.24.17 at 9:55 pm

And this, people are fear in cellpfones apps and cookies, while vacuum cleaner is spying on you. And my car is spying on me…

http://gizmodo.com/roombas-next-big-step-is-selling-maps-of-your-home-to-t-1797187829

#BuyDyson

#60 paracho on 07.24.17 at 9:58 pm

I notice many of the same mantras from people in the real estate game as Alicia mentioned ( kudos to you Alicia , for speaking the truth !) .
One property in my hometown of Woodbridge Ontario hase been for slae for over 30 days now. immaculately kept and a beauty..but I think they want to much . Another one I drive by have been on sale for over 6 weeks not . First there was a sticker that said ‘new price’ and then there was another sticker about a week back that said ‘reduced price’. Reminds me of the early 1990s.
Just have patience ‘Tony The Gino’.
With all the new government policies ( which came a bit too late) , the rate increases ( The US Fed will raise rates and Canada usually follows) plus bond yields increasing..there is going to be a high probability of a decrease in real estate values within the GTA in the near and longer term future.

#61 MF on 07.24.17 at 10:00 pm

3 rainclouds on 07.24.17 at 8:15 pm

Interesting link and I think everyone should read it.

Every day i take a peak at home capital’s stock and hope it is red.

Very shady dealings during the “saving” of that slimy company.

Now we know for sure, these idiots were worried about contagion. The Three (Buffet, T2, bill M) met to discuss the too-big-to-fail failed company in Seattle.

Hopefully Cahodes will be right yet.

MF

#62 Jake on 07.24.17 at 10:01 pm

Those numbers are incorrect.

Per TREB, avg detached in Richmond Hill last July was $1.493M . This past June, ’17 it was $1.675M

Source: http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/market_watch/index.htm

Source: http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/market_watch/Htm

Alex provided median sold prices. — Garth

#63 Smoking Man on 07.24.17 at 10:04 pm

Dont worry millenials, the globalists are propping up the CAD, lefty Big Business is propping up selfy boy to spite free market minded folks like Trump.

Its temporary. If trump gets outed you’re all screwed, even the boomers who havent invested in Block Chain.

Just saying no one sees the future with crystil clear claraty like me.

Garth listings are coming off. Im still a bull on Real estate but from a spectators view now.

I’m running away from communism.

I would love to put some loot in Turner Investments. I think you, Ryan and Doug really have your shit together. But I’ve been a bad boy, got to run.

Its a pitty the range died, it was my final gift to CRA.

Now they get nothing.

Now thats Justice.

#64 Mike on 07.24.17 at 10:08 pm

#55 Happy Housing Crash…

Won’t happen….

Didnt happen in Van. Wont happen in GTA. Even recession prone Edmonton/Calgary have prices up. Oh, Canada.

#65 AB Boxster on 07.24.17 at 10:15 pm

#56 InvestorsFriend on 07.24.17 at 9:38 pm

I predict NDP majority next time as well.
——————————————
You must be joking.
Even with a poorly organized Wildrose and very unpopular PC party, in the last election NDP won with 40% of vote while combined PC and Wildrose had ove 52%.

Notley has a 28% approval rating in Alberta and that is generous.

She’s just barely above Ontario’s Wynne, worst in Canada.
She will be lucky to hold on to her own seat.

There will be many NDP hacks going back to their Starbucks jobs after the next election.

#66 guru on 07.24.17 at 10:17 pm

guru here gain….. look for the 5yr bond yield to continue drive upwards to 2% by Oct, which means the cost of funds will continue to increase as well. Fixed rates will near 3.5-4% while the ARM rate will increase by another 25bps again. Me (and most of the banking heads here) are still predicting for at least a 50% drop by XMAS for all commuter towns including Newmarket, Guelph, Barrie, Milton, Stoufville. TO will be slightly less at 30-40% but all prices will go down by 2-3% per year for the long term until 2025.

#67 Smoking Man on 07.24.17 at 10:20 pm

#37 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.24.17 at 8:32 pm
@#25 Sam the Sham

As T2 seems to want to be the drum majorette at the head of every gay pride parade in the country are you sure it’s woman’s hormones?

—————————

You seen the way Ivanka looks at Trudeau? Donnie was jealous. Why do you think he imposed tariffs on Canadian lumber? I’m sure when T2 waves his locks, he even gives Smoking (too much substance) Man a little tickle down there.
…..

The only thing that tickeles me down there is a fanticy of fkg the machine. T2 is only one geer in the engine of madness.

Good bye and good luck.

Italian ice cream store in a tropical island right by where the cruse ships dock.

Bring on globalism.

#68 guru on 07.24.17 at 10:20 pm

oh and Vancouver will see a cooling by Sept and prices will drop modestly by 10% but the long term is mostly stagnant prices for the long term. Vancouver is completely detached from economic reality (too much retiree & overseas money) so there is nothing much to talk about here.

#69 neo on 07.24.17 at 10:21 pm

#23 Ian on 07.24.17 at 7:26 pm
Did anyone else notice that zolo.ca stopped posting its market stats?! I was on there today and it appears to be gone. Trying to conceal bearish news?!

********************************************

Wrong. It’s still there.

https://www.zolo.ca/toronto-real-estate/trends

#70 Doug in London on 07.24.17 at 10:21 pm

@Happening now, post #27:
Maybe Vancouver area is immune to a real estate correction, but personally I wouldn’t bet on it. It may be a sign that if you own a house in Vancouver area there’s still time to cash in your winning lottery ticket. Unlike in Ontario, it appears the BC Lottery and Gaming Corporation has extended the deadline for cashing in those winning tickets. Don’t blow this last once in a lifetime opportunity to get rich beyond your wildest dreams.

#71 I believe everything on television on 07.24.17 at 10:22 pm

folks should by a house at around the age of 30
live in it, out grow it, up grade or re locate, retire, check out

at 40 plus (millosers), it’s possible but a bit late
that’s why we have this blog
-hope to the hopeless

#72 Asterix1 on 07.24.17 at 10:32 pm

#64 Mike on 07.24.17 at 10:08 pm
Won’t happen….Didnt happen in Van. Wont happen in GTA. Even recession prone Edmonton/Calgary have prices up. Oh, Canada.
_______________________________________

What are you talking about? At least bring some relevant arguments, statistics, reports, studies, policies, charts, anything man!

* Vancouver average is down -15.7% from its high.
* GTA is down -17% from its high

It’s happening! Keep your head buried deep in the sand. I know, its nice there, you get a good feeling. Unfortunately, its not reality.

#73 InvestorsFriend on 07.24.17 at 10:34 pm

Home Capital

For goodness sakes, Morneau did NOT say they discussed Home Capital with Warren Buffett. They discussed Canada in general. That could have left Buffett slightly more receptive to a pitch from Canada when Home Capital came calling.

If people want to succeed in investing they just might want to study Warren Buffett and learn. In fact he loves teaching people about investing and has been doing so (read his annual letters) his entire life. (And I mean entire, he started talking about investing by the time he was about six years old, I kid you not)

#74 bubu on 07.24.17 at 10:37 pm

“Still to come is the new stress test that all homebuyers will have to pass, regardless of whether they have a fat down payment or not – and the continued tightening of monetary policy.”

this will not happen… don’t scare people…. same with the interest rate… it will go to 1%, maybe 1.25% but not more…

#75 Long-Time Lurker on 07.24.17 at 10:38 pm

#56 For those about to flop… on 07.23.17 at 6:26 pm

C) Pink Mushrooms being eaten in Vancouver.

This is off-topic but interesting. How to blow $167 million.

How tennis legend Boris Becker blew $167 million

http://www.news.com.au/sport/sports-life/how-tennis-legend-boris-becker-blew-167-million/news-story/2fdda8ed2b698ef2f5da0d63e8b4ab50

#76 Dan.t on 07.24.17 at 10:47 pm

All those Ontario houses that are not selling should be marketed in BC. BC people have millions and will buy real estate anytime and anywhere.

If only you could relocate the house to BC. It would sell in seconds and be automatic worth double. Too bad.

Actually a good business plan. Take houses from anywhere and relocate then to anywhere with in 2 hours of Vancouver and sell them for million plus CAD dollars . Actually a million is to low, make it 1.5 and up cause money for BC houses is not an issue.

#77 T on 07.24.17 at 10:48 pm

#29 Look to Vancouver GTAers on 07.24.17

If you are going to compare Toronto to Vancouver, and argue Toronto will follow Vancouver’s lead, you need to present all the data and not cherry pick points which support your argument.

Vancouver is a much different animal than Toronto, though eventually will be subject to the choking off of funding which is currently happening in Toronto.

Not to mention the free loan the BC government has been providing to the low end of the market, first time buyers (condos and town), which has been pumping that segment for some time now.

The only ones I know who even dare compare Toronto market activity to Vancouver, in order to support the view of an ever inflating Toronto market, are realtors and the uneducated and untraveled.

#78 Deplorable ice cream on 07.24.17 at 10:51 pm

#67 Smoking Man on 07.24.17 at 10:20 pm

#37 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.24.17 at 8:32 pm
@#25 Sam the Sham

As T2 seems to want to be the drum majorette at the head of every gay pride parade in the country are you sure it’s woman’s hormones?

—————————

You seen the way Ivanka looks at Trudeau? Donnie was jealous. Why do you think he imposed tariffs on Canadian lumber? I’m sure when T2 waves his locks, he even gives Smoking (too much substance) Man a little tickle down there.
…..

The only thing that tickeles me down there is a fanticy of fkg the machine. T2 is only one geer in the engine of madness.

Good bye and good luck.

Italian ice cream store in a tropical island right by where the cruse ships dock.

Bring on globalism.
..
Will the ice cream be laced with JD?

#79 prairie person on 07.24.17 at 10:54 pm

Not sure what is going on overall in Victoria but building is evident everywhere I go. Across the street, a bungalow was torn down. The rock on the property is being drilled and blasted. I think a duplex is going in. On Quadra, large condo development in progress. Downtown, more condos. Sale signs in t his neighbourhood go up and shortly there’s a sold sign. Who are these people who are buying up everything available? It wasn’t that long ago that I heard and read stories about how retirees weren’t interested in Victoria anymore, that businesses were closing. All negative. It can’t just be Vancouver refugees. I think my neighbour got his price: 899,000.00. Very ordinary house. Nice location, good panoramic views. But 899,000? For a house built in the 80s?

#80 Kim on 07.24.17 at 10:57 pm

Don’t know why people are saying YVR is back up. The only thing that is selling (was selling) are condos and townhomes, priced under about 1.3m. And the reason is because of Christys free 37.5k downpayment for first time buyers which translates to an extra 200k of purchasing power. Then when people sold their condos to move up, they could buy the 1-1.3m dollar homes but it gets progressively harder to move up after that. Detached are barely moving in the city proper. And Zolo confirms this, average prices went up a bit in the spring but have since taken a nose dive, 10% down in the past month, down 5.3% from a year ago, when prices were already dropping and below peak. (I understand average prices are not a good barameter. But it speaks to the fact that what is selling is mostly of the lower end variety, i.e., due to Christy’s free gift.)

#81 Entrepreneur on 07.24.17 at 11:04 pm

Okay, listened to the Jon McComb Show #43 BC’s Coming Approach and the Minister of Housing, Selina Robertson, said the easy ones like speculation tax, closing loopholes for flipping, tax fraud will be the first. And that could take up a couple of months but McComb and people that phoned/emailed in want it in asap. As one person said “it is hurting the middle class.” Damn right it is!

Canada is in bad shape as in #22 Mark said, I agree. But why is Canada in bad shape? Well, #24 Linda answered it “Globalization & automation have changed the job world for sure” and she explains why. So as a nation are our leader(s) going to do something about this or are they going to pretend that the people in their nation to not exist? Ignore us until we get angry, depressed, suicidal, overdose.

#43 Happy Housing Crash Everyone…I think you come on as straight forward no nonsense person (I sometimes chuckle at that) and that is what is needed to help this nation to get back on their feet.

#82 Smoking Man on 07.24.17 at 11:05 pm

CTV globalism 101

Are they still Canadian?

#83 Deplorable ice cream on 07.24.17 at 11:12 pm

#74 Smoking Man on 07.24.17 at 11:05 pm

CTV globalism 101

Are they still Canadian?
..
Well you’re no longer canadian either…. a runner.. heading for the T2 fence

#84 will on 07.24.17 at 11:29 pm

sorry, off topic, can someone direct me to Garth’s old posts about IRS coming after americans in Canada? Got a friend who was born in the states, was naturalized Canadian at 3 years old, (she’s 60 now), had an american friend who died in a bad motorcycle accident recently and left her some stocks worth about 12k. IRS says she’s an american citizen and says she has to file. any responses to this welcome. need to figure this shit out asap.

#85 Raging Ranter on 07.24.17 at 11:46 pm

InvestorsFriend, you come across as incredibly naive. Buffet would not risk a penny on a failing bank, unless he had a guarantee – implicit to explicit – that the government would not allow it to fail. He did the same with Bank of America shares in 2008-09. He knew the US government would not allow another bank to fail.

The very fact that he met with Trudeau and Morneau weeks before it happened, and that Morneau believes that meeting had some influence on his decision, fills in the rest of the blanks. Which to be honest were never all that blank.

Seriously, who is going to buy a struggling bank in a country he rarely shows any interest in after receiving only general assurances about the state of the overall economy by that country’s political leaders? If Buffett invested like that we wouldn’t be talking about him because we’d never have heard of him. Then again, you’re e guy who thinks the NDP will win a second term in AB. I guess you’ll believe pretty much anything.

#86 45north on 07.24.17 at 11:50 pm

Mark: Just how are rates “stupid cheap” when the economy is likely in YoY deflation at this point?

the connection between interest rates and the economy has been dissolved. Poloz has been told to raise Canadian rates. He has and he will.

So here’s what a “moderating pace of growth” looks like in terms of detached house prices over the last three months:

let’s understate it: there’s been an-across-the-board 10% decline in real estate in the GTA. A 10% decline in three months is drastic, unprecedented. Yesterday, I pointed out that the obvious political move would be to support the real estate market. In particular, the attack on small business is an attack on real estate too. I mean small business is as involved with real estate as anybody. What is Bill Morneau thinking? It would make sense if in his view, real estate is essentially a lost cause and he now hitches his horse to a political slogan such as “fairness for middle class families”.

I see a great irony: politicians trumpet the cause of the middle class while abandoning them.

#87 Dee on 07.25.17 at 12:10 am

People better pray that there’s an uptick in sales in t.o in toronto because at this pace, the crash will be severe. If september is weak (I think it will be but this bull market has fooled me too many times), that means that it’s another 6 months of guaranteed less sales. That translates to at the very best stagnant prices. We will then start seeing an uptick in bankruptcies and this whole thing will gain serious velocity with no near term recovery

#88 Craig on 07.25.17 at 12:16 am

Yeah – Vancouver is down if you want to buy a $12M house. It’s now $10.5M. But for the rest of the population who want to buy houses under $2M or condos under $1M its not happening. All crappy low priced houses that started the year in the $1.2M range are now $1.5. Any decent livable house anywhere in Vancouver proper is $1.9M+. All condos are up huge and selling like wildfire. So yes – sale prices on $10M homes but good luck to the rest of us.

#89 Eastender on 07.25.17 at 12:23 am

@ # 53 HAPPY HOUSING CRASH

Eat this, Mattamy, Kitchener all townhouses sold in one day.

#90 Eastender on 07.25.17 at 12:24 am

I’m anxiously waiting for an opportunity to jump in.

#91 Tony on 07.25.17 at 12:24 am

Re: #78 prairie person on 07.24.17 at 10:54 pm

Only the idiots are buying in Victoria right now because when the foreigner tax is slapped on all of B.C. or most of B.C. including Victoria then the initial big plunge in prices will hit and all or most of the local speculators will be toast.

#92 Contrary Canadian on 07.25.17 at 12:25 am

Does anybody know if the August 3 deadline for TREB to make it’s data available is delayed by their appeal against the Competition tribunal’s decision last year?

Interesting take by Bob Aaron:

http://www.bnn.ca/real-estate/video/treb-appeal-a-stall-tactic-toronto-lawyer~921575

Anybody got a prediction as to if and when these guys will finally be forced to make this information accessible? It feels like it’s taking forever, because it is. This all started back in 2011 if you can believe it.

#93 Contrary Canadian on 07.25.17 at 12:26 am

Here’s the case history for the Competition Tribunal case referenced above:

http://www.ct-tc.gc.ca/CasesAffaires/CasesDetails-eng.asp?CaseID=347

Jeez!!!

#94 Leo Trollstoy on 07.25.17 at 12:32 am

The loonie has surged in recent weeks because (a) the economy doesn’t suck as much anymore and (b) the Bank of Canada is hot to raise rates – again. – Garth

Garth is right

Garth > Mark

#95 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.25.17 at 12:35 am

rknusa: Morneau probably guaranteed a government bailout for Warren if Home Capital fails, Buffet purchase was used to assure the markets everything ok
————————————————————-
You got it right. That’s what I said when it happened.

#96 JRT on 07.25.17 at 12:47 am

Justine didn’t have much to do with the increase in the dollar. The interest rate increase did help. Also, the US dollar is near a ten month low against other currencies and the fact many countries are giving the greenback the boot. As for you who plan on or already have a home loan, this article will be of interest to you and may save you some coin.
http://globalnews.ca/news/3488311/mortgage-life-insurance-canada/?utm_source=GlobalOkanagan&utm_medium=Facebook

#97 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.25.17 at 12:55 am

Smoking Man: Dont worry millenials, the globalists are propping up the CAD, lefty Big Business is propping up selfy boy to spite free market minded folks like Trump.
Its temporary. If trump gets outed you’re all screwed
———————————————————–
You got that right Smokey. It’ll be very temporary. And if Trump get ousted, get on a plane to Tonga or Lesotho A.S.A.P.

#98 prairie person on 07.25.17 at 1:07 am

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/24/bank-of-england-household-debt-bank-credit-card-car-loans?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=236422&subid=20837907&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

Here’s a developed article on what garth has been saying about debt being out of control.

#99 Dolce Vita on 07.25.17 at 1:27 am

I read other Cdn. business news sites every AM but in the end, to read about what matters I come here and here is always ahead of the rest.

Thank you Garth for the post today – the interest rate chart significant as were the stats.
_______________________________
Smoking Man:

I can send you some primo Gelato recipes from Italia that I make here but alas, you will need Italian dairy and produce to make it taste good. Still, good on you (I smoke too, on drink we diverge, I prefer a Prosecco from Valdobbiadene or a Spritz when it is hot as it has been here).
_______________________________
Screwed Canadian Millenial:

You must not have gotten much attention as a child. Surprising as you are from a mollycoddled generation.

Oh, wait a second, you ARE seeking attention after all:

“Now for some replies…”

my bad – as a Boomer it took me awhile to fend thru all the drivel.

#100 april on 07.25.17 at 1:37 am

#79-Re Van real estate, the way I understand it is that housing over 2 mil has declined by approx 30%, and this will spread out to all housing over the next little while. The lower end is/was still selling as you say. People who are still buying or bought in the last yr will lose or are losing equity now.

#101 Looney Baloney on 07.25.17 at 2:13 am

#73 InvestorsFriend
I’m sure they can.
http://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/the-mobile-home-trap-how-a-warren-buffett-empire-preys-on-the-poor/

#102 Looney Baloney on 07.25.17 at 2:20 am

#37 Millenial with screws too tight
I’m sure his mommy looked at El Comandante the same way.

https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/uploads/2016/11/16/margaret-fidel-pierre.jpg.size.custom.crop.850×566.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/ghmFcOo.jpg

LOL

#103 M-cube on 07.25.17 at 2:50 am

I’m a stupid person, so I must rely on simple logic to survive in this complicated world.

If the Ontario government efforts fail to cool GTA housing and if a modestly rising interest rate fails to cool GTA housing, then the crazy house prices are NOT the result of working class Canadians. It will mean that foreign money is still setting the high watermark for GTA home prices.

A 3-bedroom condo in Beijing sells for the same amount as a multi-million dollar detached home in GTA. There are hundreds of thousands of 3-bedroom condos valued at insane prices in Beijing alone. Average folk (not 1%ers) are just selling their shit condo in Beijing and buying an amazing palace in the GTA with money still left over for the white BMW. This is what is happening. Those who deny know sh#t. The pronzi scheme of China is going to steam roll your beloved sense of value. Your ideas of value are absolutely meaningless against this pronzi scheme, absolutely meaningless.

In 10 years time even the politicians of the GTA will be forced to admit they misled you all about the truth of what was really happening to your beloved neighbourhoods.

10 years will pass quickly. You will come to believe these words from a stupid person.

#104 Look to Vancouver GTAers on 07.25.17 at 2:53 am

#76 T on 07.24.17 at 10:48 pm
#29 Look to Vancouver GTAers on 07.24.17

If you are going to compare Toronto to Vancouver, and argue Toronto will follow Vancouver’s lead, you need to present all the data and not cherry pick points which support your argument.

Vancouver is a much different animal than Toronto, though eventually will be subject to the choking off of funding which is currently happening in Toronto.

Not to mention the free loan the BC government has been providing to the low end of the market, first time buyers (condos and town), which has been pumping that segment for some time now.

The only ones I know who even dare compare Toronto market activity to Vancouver, in order to support the view of an ever inflating Toronto market, are realtors and the uneducated and untraveled.

——-

Oh, please do elaborate on the fundamental differences between the two markets and the variables impacting demand and supply?

I trust it will be something like YVR is different because of X Y Z. And if you follow that logic, then you will certainly be sounding a lot like realtors who point out that Vancouver is ‘different.’…..

So go ahead and please explain.

And if that is the case, then the

#105 Jay (not that one) on 07.25.17 at 5:04 am

It’s interesting seeing people even here who think debt is this magical fairy not remotely tied to market forces.

People are right on the verge of collapse. The numbers appear to support that. Adding 1% on a million dollar mortgage is not something people on the edge can shrug off.

Oh, and screwed millennial — there are unbelievable opportunities in Canada. Spend less time whining that you aren’t been handed opportunity and more time working towards actually accomplishing what you want with substantive action, and maybe one day you’ll wake up and realize that. Not even Bill Gates succeeded by sitting in his mother’s basement whining that nothing was happening.

#106 Dan.t on 07.25.17 at 5:45 am

http://globalnews.ca/bc/program/the-jon-mccomb-show

Yes at the 29 minute mark, looks like BC real estate will not change anytime soon. NDP gov has basically no plan on how to tackle the unaffordable and housing crisis in BC?? Wasn’t that how they got elected. Man disappointing.

You would think that during the campaign they would have something together so they can implement it right away.

So expect prices in BC to keep rising. No wonder people have lost faith in elected officials. All talk and no action. Just dodge the questions over and over again.

In the mean time good luck finding affordable rents anywhere near YVR or lower mainland and prices just keep rising and get pushed east of Vancouver. Seems the normal in BC, go into massive debt to buy a basic liveable condo or pay insane rents. Go BC!

It looks like the greater fools were the ones watching from the sidelines.

If you simply bought at any price the last 16 years. I guess it doesnt matter if you lied on your mortgage application, used home grants, borrowed from whoever would give you money… there are clear winners.

NDP solution… we need more time to look at things. Brutal

#107 nick on 07.25.17 at 5:46 am

Looks like new listings have slowed down recently. Wonder if it will pick up again soon.

#108 Dharma Bum on 07.25.17 at 6:47 am

Man, the comments section has regressed into a cesspool of ignorance!

Very entertaining though.

Where do these people come from?

Most were obviously educated in the public school system. Some may have done their post secondary pseudo-education at Brock U, or some other remedial institution.

#109 Mark on 07.25.17 at 6:52 am

“the connection between interest rates and the economy has been dissolved. Poloz has been told to raise Canadian rates. He has and he will.”

And just ‘who’ would tell him that? Keeping in mind that the ‘agreement’ between the government and the BoC is to maintain monetary stability.

Can you answer without resorting to conspiracy theory concerning “the Americans” or other globalist-types?

#110 Mark on 07.25.17 at 6:55 am

“Garth > Mark”

Oh rlly? You think that the GTA could shed so much value so rapidly without something very bad being on the horizon?

We’ll just have to see, but really, there was only one number which even remotely came to justifying that rate hike. And even that number, the GDP figure, is quite suspect.

#111 BillyBob on 07.25.17 at 7:02 am

A few clarifications from yesterday’s interesting discussions about Scandinavian countries.

Never once did I say Northern Europe was nirvana. I only thought it quite laughable to think of moving to Canada as progress. Talk about a lateral move at best, and that’s being charitable. There HAS to be a woman involved in that story.

I actually agree with most of the observations. Malmo is disgusting. Norway can be pretty snobby. And Finland isn’t really Scandinavia, although they usually get lumped in.

One observation I definitely agree with: Norwegian is a superb airline. I should know…I work for them! Except, I actually work for Norwegian Long Haul, because they didn’t feel like paying Norwegian wages to their flight attendants and instead wanted to hire Thai crew. When the unions in Norway fought them in court and won, the company simply started up a separate division for the B787’s that I fly with their operating certificate based in Ireland. It’s operated entirely separately (legally speaking) from their domestic division. Problem solved.

Globalization, baby. It’s why Canadians who refuse to adapt will continue to lose ground on wages.

#112 Shawn on 07.25.17 at 7:11 am

Is it time for US equities to outperform their global peers? “What everyone knows is not worth knowing.”

http://fat-pitch.blogspot.ca/2017/05/fund-managers-current-asset-allocation.html?m=1#more

#113 MF on 07.25.17 at 7:39 am

#102 M-cube on 07.25.17 at 2:50 am

This is a solid post, and the logic applies to people from other parts of the the world that experienced a housing boom as well.

I remember going condo hunting with my boomer parents in 2012 in the GTA. I could feel my mom trying to pin some “value” she developed while house hunting in the 80’s and early 90’s on the places we went into. She was astonished and shocked at how expensive these “little apartments” were.

Of course all the places we looked at have increased in value a lot since then, along with my rent, but I don’t blame my parents for holding off. Their 1980’s values also included a fear of debt and they could see all these condos were an absolute joke 5 years ago. Problem is the world has changed and there will never be any “value” for real estate again.

MF

#114 MF on 07.25.17 at 7:48 am

#87 Craig on 07.25.17 at 12:16 am

Yup. This x 1000.

Buried in all this “happy housing crash” false hope is a few huge cracks:

1) While down since an overall high last April, all forms of housing are way up since this time last year

2) Condos, which are all anybody can afford, are actually STILL up since April.

3) I couldn’t care less if a SFD is down from 1.3 million to 1.1 million since it’s still way out of reach, and has appreciated 4x in value in 10 years.

The demand for SFD is still present, people are just waiting. Money is still too cheap even with our puny .25% “raise”.

MF

#115 WUL on 07.25.17 at 7:57 am

It would appear that the mild improvement in Calgary real estate stats in April and May were in fact due only to a rare rise in libido, probably in anticipation of the loose mores for 10 days of Stampede.

CREB:

http://www.creb.com/Housing_Statistics/Daily_Housing_Summary/?tab=2

#116 jess on 07.25.17 at 8:11 am

who screwed who?

…”the biggest trial in Cayman Islands history, a multibillion-dollar fraud case investigating the collapse of a Saudi business empire… seven years to get to trial, and then a year for the trial…The courtroom was substantially remodeled, fitted out with scores of computer monitors and lined with shelves to accommodate an unprecedented number of documents used as exhibits…More than 40 lawyers and accountants have been involved in a trial that has traversed some of the most complex areas of law: fraud, forgery, proprietary tracing, unjust enrichment, conspiracy and cross-border conflicts, according to a joint statement from the legal teams involved.”

“The trial revolves around the hotly contested claim from the Saudi family conglomerate that it was the victim of a $9.1 billion fraud.It alleges that Maan Al Sanea, who married into the family and managed its financial services businesses, engaged in massive unauthorized borrowing, siphoning off proceeds to his own companies, many of them registered in the Cayman Islands, and triggering the collapse of the entire business empire. The claims are contested by Al Sanea, as well as by the liquidators of the Cayman Islands-registered companies.”…

https://www.caymancompass.com/2017/07/23/saudi-fraud-trial-ends-this-week-after-a-year-in-cayman-court/

================
younger age category does this speak to thee?
” cheap ass corporations” hum….try these “sink” jurisdictions

Computer scientists reveal the hidden architecture of tax havens—and how to beat them
Tim Fernholz
July 24, 2017
Using a global dataset that tracks the relationships between more than 98 million companies, the researchers used algorithms to build a network that identified the relationships between corporate subsidiaries, tracing the flow of tax-free money from country to country through these corporate chains.

This technique allowed them to make a key distinction, between offshore financial centers that act as conduits from major markets, and their final destinations, offshore financial centers that act as sinks for capital.

https://qz.com/1036982/computer-scientists-reveal-the-hidden-architecture-of-tax-havens-and-how-to-beat-them/

#117 maxx on 07.25.17 at 8:13 am

#5 CL on 07.24.17 at 6:36 pm

“…..what Alicia said about know it all’s simply because they sell real estate is common among all industries really….especially among TNL’sATB!!”

That’s only because corporate canned “wisdom” is so ingrained. But it is delivered with a smile!

TNLATB smiley scale rating depends on what corner of the office re she works in. If she works behind closed doors, the smile is wide, warm and solicitous. Just watch next time she comes out of her lair to greet and fetch the couple sitting in the comfy chairs in the makeshift “lounge”. Relationship in a jar – just add coffee or bottled water. Perrier, if you’re borrowing or investing bigly.

TNLATB working without door status, for instance, the teller, is generally OK, but not nearly as lovingly predisposed as her counterpart.

Debt peddling is going to be sooooo profitable going forward, more than ever…..even if rates rise only a tad more, which is unlikely.

This is only the beginning.

#118 jack on 07.25.17 at 8:28 am

I’m out! Manged to get my townhome in newmarket sold … closed last week. Had to drop the price significantly from peak (about 15%) and the only reason it sold was beacause it was fully renovated and priced at the low end of the market. I bought in Jan 2016 for 490k and sold for 625k in June of this year. Sounds like a good profit but after all the taxes, fees, reno expenses, and my renovation labor I basically broke even. I’m just glad to be off this sinking ship!

Alot of other suckers are still trying to get peak prices in my neighborhood and the rest of newmarket … not a hint of a buyer unless the property is very desirable. I can attest that average prices are down 30% on detached here – however they went up about the same from Jan to Mar (peak). My agent claims it’s because of the sales mix, but i’m not buying it – i’ve been following the market closely as I was thinking about buying a detached early in the year (glad i didn’t!). The only people buying $1M plus properties in newmarket now are Chinese buyers that want to live here in very specific pockets (stonehaven for example).

Renting a nice detached now that was worth $1.2 at peak for $2200 a month … Probably worth 900k now but still a bargain compared to buying. Hopefully 3 years from now i can buy it for $400k … cash :).

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.25.17 at 8:30 am

@#87 will

Yes. She has to pay taxes……

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://www.expatinfodesk.com/expat-guide/nationality-specific-information/americans/us-tax-liability/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjerNfht6TVAhVU8GMKHYZKDtIQFghMMAo&usg=AFQjCNEYVELFjbB8kdCEAP1gue6lI6r4sA

#120 Old Ron the Realtor on 07.25.17 at 8:53 am

These comments plus $1.05 will get you a small “Seniors” coffee at McDonald’s.

1) Interest rates don’t scare me ….yet. A 25 basis point rise will only cost about hundred bucks a month on an average Toronto mortgage of $750,000. But as I tell my clients it is not the last $100 you have to worry about it’s the first $3,400.00. And Garth is spot on, there is an inverse relationship between interest rates and price.

2) Realtors do tend to run off at the mouth. Many will say anything to get paid, and in a market that has seen sales drop in half, their promises and guarantees have doubled in volume. So while I don’t share “Happy Crash’s” vitriolic hatred of realtors, the Consumer needs to have their B.S. detector set to 11.

3) I like (#86) Dee’s comments a lot. There is a ton of bravado being spouted by realtors and their enablers in the media right now concerning a September bounce. I say maybe, the herd is always unpredictable, but as Dee says, if it don’t bounce in the fall, we will all be looking down the road to next winter/spring for a bottom.

4) A lot of folks from Beautiful British Columbia on this blog, and to them I say that all real estate like politics is local. So while I like the province of B.C. very much, it is a different and numerically speaking, much smaller cat than the GTA, influenced to a much larger extent by shrooms and foreign investment.

Dogs rule.

#121 Old Ron the Realtor on 07.25.17 at 8:53 am

These comments plus $1.05 will get you a small “Seniors” coffee at McDonald’s.

1) Interest rates don’t scare me ….yet. A 25 basis point rise will only cost about hundred bucks a month on an average Toronto mortgage of $750,000. But as I tell my clients it is not the last $100 you have to worry about it’s the first $3,400.00. And Garth is spot on, there is an inverse relationship between interest rates and price.

2) Realtors do tend to run off at the mouth. Many will say anything to get paid, and in a market that has seen sales drop in half, their promises and guarantees have doubled in volume. So while I don’t share “Happy Crash’s” vitriolic hatred of realtors, the Consumer needs to have their B.S. detector set to 11.

3) I like (#86) Dee’s comments a lot. There is a ton of bravado being spouted by realtors and their enablers in the media right now concerning a September bounce. I say maybe, the herd is always unpredictable, but as Dee says, if it don’t bounce in the fall, we will all be looking down the road to next winter/spring for a bottom.

4) A lot of folks from Beautiful British Columbia on this blog, and to them I say that all real estate like politics is local. So while I like the province of B.C. very much, it is a different and numerically speaking, much smaller cat than the GTA, influenced to a much larger extent by shrooms and foreign investment.

Dogs rule.

#122 Grantmi on 07.25.17 at 8:57 am

#18 april on 07.24.17 at 7:01 pm
Auzzie Jurock said recently, not that we believe him, that Van houses have risen “a measly .4%”. Ross Kay recently said Van houses had declined “27 %”. No wonder people are confused.

Because Ozzie is a real estate hack. He makes his $$$ on his seminars and deals. He needs the rise to continue… or he losses.

#123 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.25.17 at 8:57 am

Contrary Canadian on 07.25.17 at 12:25 am
Does anybody know if the August 3 deadline for TREB to make it’s data available is delayed by their appeal against the Competition tribunal’s decision last year?

Interesting take by Bob Aaron:

http://www.bnn.ca/real-estate/video/treb-appeal-a-stall-tactic-toronto-lawyer~921575

Anybody got a prediction as to if and when these guys will finally be forced to make this information accessible? It feels like it’s taking forever, because it is. This all started back in 2011 if you can believe it.

Realtors are useless High School drop out shyster shills. some of them not even finished elementary school. Realtors know they are useless and hold the value equivalent to a travel agent. they are nothing but shyster thugs who lie. The Government should smash this criminal organisation in Half. It’s 2017 not 1980 where realtors still want to remain where information is hard for others to get.

#124 CJBob on 07.25.17 at 9:02 am

#73 InvestorsFriend on 07.24.17 at 10:34 pm
Home Capital

For goodness sakes, Morneau did NOT say they discussed Home Capital with Warren Buffett. They discussed Canada in general. That could have left Buffett slightly more receptive to a pitch from Canada when Home Capital came calling.
_____________
Exactly. If Harper had done this we’d be hearing what a genius he is and how he’s in touch with the business community and it didn’t cost a penny of taxpayers money. The Liberals do it and there is some time of conspiracy. Too much time watching the X files I guess.

The older I get the more I see the world in shades of grey.

#125 Ole Doberman on 07.25.17 at 9:46 am

#12 Calgary Census on 07.24.17 at 6:48 pm

According to the City of Calgary census wast week:

“The number of vacant dwelling units in Calgary is now 23,553, an increase of 2,710 from the 20,843 vacancies in 2016.”

That is a 13% increase.
I still see many condo towers still being built.
———————————————————
Agreed. Either a bunch of developers are going to lose their shirts, or they know something that we don’t…

Like an influx of HAM coming in.

#126 Asterix1 on 07.25.17 at 10:27 am

I have a gut feeling that the OSFI 2% stress test will come to fruition. The government knows that Canadians have become slimy “debt” leeches, taking as much debt as the banks and alternative lenders will feed them.

Interest rates are rising, will rise and affect the market, yet, it shall not be fast enough to slow down the debt feeding orgy at the pond.

That’s when the 2% stress test comes in to drain the pond and dry out the leeches!

PS: Even without the proposed stress test, GTA market is heading down for the next 6 to 9+ months. The 2% stress test would just accelerate things. An unbiased analysis of all the data out there points to one direction, and it ain’t up!

#127 Tazi Bnu on 07.25.17 at 10:38 am

#122 CJBob on 07.25.17 at 9:02 am
#73 InvestorsFriend on 07.24.17 at 10:34 pm
Home Capital

The older I get the more I see the world in shades of grey.
__________________________________________
Ya lately I don’t understand how the moral absolutism movement has gained this much steam. Everyone has got flaws and will make bad decisions, but everyone is inherently good and will try to do the right things. Everyone has their own justifications. However, their vision tends to be swayed by their own personal interest first, and most if not all don’t realize it happening to them. This typically makes hypocrites of them, like promising to have a more open and transparent government, then proceeding to make things more closed and opaque in the interest of speeding up the government’s “morally superior” plans. The “small” fault is justified by the “Greater Good.” Every government is guilty of this in one way or another. No one is innocent of making mistakes. But we as the electorate have to judge them on the sum of their actions and the truthiness of their promises.

Also, Screwed Canadian Millenial is posting low quality bait and a lot of you guys got hooked.

Anyways that’s my rant for the day.

#128 Mike in Edm on 07.25.17 at 10:46 am

Garth (or anyone else)… When is the best guess for when this possible OSFI stress test may actually be implemented? This fall, early 2018? After next year’s budget (which I’m sure T2 is praying will balance itself while he plays with his building blocks)?

Later this year. — Garth

#129 NotAnAmericanNoMatterWhatUSAsays on 07.25.17 at 10:57 am

@#83 Will re: ” sorry, off topic, can someone direct me to Garth’s old posts about IRS coming after americans in Canada? Got a friend who was born in the states, was naturalized Canadian at 3 years old, (she’s 60 now), had an american friend who died in a bad motorcycle accident recently and left her some stocks worth about 12k. IRS says she’s an american citizen and says she has to file. any responses to this welcome. need to figure this shit out asap.”

Your friend needs to NOT panic as she may make a decision (i.e. entering the US tax system) that she may regret later. You don’t provide a lot of details, so it is hard to give advice, but generally speaking if one is NOT already in the US tax system (no SSN for example), it is not a good idea to jump in. Some things to consider are: does her Canadian bank know she has a US birth place? Has the IRS actually contacted her? Does she have TFSA’s, Canadian mutual funds, RESPS, Canadian ETFs (deemed PFICS in IRS speak)? It can be VERY complicated to enter the US tax system if one has never been in it (or been away from it a long time) – there is a ‘streamlined’ amnesty program she could consider. Another option (here in Canada anyway) is to deal with a financial institution that DOES NOT KNOW of her US birthplace and to keep it that way (banks don’t ask for proof, lying is sometimes a necessary evil to protect oneself from thiefs). Are US financial institutions holding the stocks asking for proof of non-US personhood? If not, this makes life easier – sell the stocks and get them out of the US perhaps. If yes, perhaps donate to charity if the choice comes down to dealing with IRS versus having to enter the US tax system (depending on complexity of her financial situation which might involve costs exceeding the value of the stocks). Although banned from the following blog myself (don’t ask), she can get LOTS of great, well-informed advice (assuming she provides more details of her personal situation) over at isaacbrocksociety.ca.
Above all, tell her to NOT PANIC, take her time, and investigate all options before revealing all to Uncle Sam. Good luck to her. She has lots of company from other long-term Canadians who recently had their ‘OMG I am a US taxpayer’ shock of a lifetime.

#130 rainclouds on 07.25.17 at 10:58 am

#40 Pete “It’s not the Millennials fault; they are trapped in the same system that you are.”

Yes there is corruption and incompetence in the existing system (also good outcomes), always has been. The main difference is epidemic voter apathy.

No it isn’t “their fault”. IF THEY VOTE. I find it interesting that we have never been more connected and disgusted with the status quo but with minimal cohesion. “Occupy” lasted a few months. The Vietnam demonstrations lased years.

My Experience and I believe borne out by the data.
Most younger Canadians don’t bother with the electoral system due to apathy “no point, not going to change anything” is a common refrain from the Uni educated 20 somethings I talk to.

As a collective Millenials are not pushing for anything except little buttons on their I-PHONE. Make no mistake, the politicians exploit this.

France just elected Macron who is not affiliated with the main parties
USA just elected a President who is hardly a conventional politician (whatever you may think of him)
UK just gave the finger to the EU in spite of the politicians , the ruling party is now hanging on by their fingernails.

Closer to home:
Maine and PEI just had successful referendums to remove their electoral systems to reflect proportional representation, removing the first past the post system. The entrenched politicians are trying to quash the will of the many but I believe we are on the cusp of significant changes. Both jurisdictions are heavily populated with geezers………

Change is possible, all about priorities. First you have to give a sh#t.

#131 NotAnAmericanNoMatterWhatUSAsays on 07.25.17 at 11:01 am

ooops re: ” If yes, perhaps donate to charity if the choice comes down to dealing with IRS versus having to enter the US tax system (depending on complexity of her financial situation which might involve costs exceeding the value of the stocks).”

Meant to say, perhaps the inheritance is not worth the cost of entering the US tax system.

#132 InvestorsFriend on 07.25.17 at 11:05 am

Eric Kushner

said “I am not a colluder” (paraphrased)

hmm that has a familiar ring to it.

#133 Dolve Vita on 07.25.17 at 11:06 am

Why I love this Blog and its Comments:

The bond market is also aroused…It’s a virtual monetary erection. -G

As T2 seems to want to be the drum majorette at the head of every gay pride parade in the country are you sure it’s woman’s hormones? -Sam the Sham

And as usual, “let me put a bite on your Realtor butt that will take you 10 years to shake”…Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

You put a laugh on my face today people, thanks for that!

#134 Dolce Vita on 07.25.17 at 11:07 am

That was “Dolce” not “Dolve”.

1 too many Prosecco’s…

#135 poly on 07.25.17 at 11:08 am

From an American viewpoint, it’s “a back door bailout in Exchange for something down the line. Very very dirty”

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/07/24/canadian-finance-minister-gloats-about-crony-capitalism-in-warren-buffetts-bailout-of-home-capital-group/

#136 NotAnAmericanNoMatterWhatUSAsays on 07.25.17 at 11:11 am

@Will re:#83, further…. The IRS (to the best of my knowledge) is getting so-called Americans ( long term CANADIANS living in Canada but having US birth place – for example, Canadians with Canadian parents who left USA as babies) to comply with US tax laws through the FEAR factor. As we all know from this blog, fear makes people do things they regret later. Don’t let your friend be one of them. If her assets are all in Canada, there is little the IRS can do and little it will do. Can you imagine the public outcry if the USA took (by force) money from a Canadian bank held by a Canadian who had only the most tenuous of US connections? Has not happened(no mechanism for this) and probably won’t.

#137 Ian on 07.25.17 at 11:13 am

#69 Neo

Did anyone else notice that zolo.ca stopped posting its market stats?! I was on there today and it appears to be gone. Trying to conceal bearish news?!

********************************************

Wrong. It’s still there.

https://www.zolo.ca/toronto-real-estate/trends
—————–

Thanks Neo! I have no idea why I can’t find it in their menu.

#138 InvestorsFriend on 07.25.17 at 11:22 am

On Warren Buffett and also on Success in Life

A numbes of doubters here about Buffett’s investment in Home Capital suggesting there were secret guarantees.

Whatever, I can lead people to the fountain of knowledge and virtue but I can’t make them drink.

What we choose to believe about the world and who we might choose to respect and to disrespect shapes our lives very much. We are all free to choose. Choose wisely.

I have studied Buffett closely for about 20 years and have read his words and listened to him very closely.

Buffett created his own virtual guarantee in Home Capital. His own well-earned reputation has put an enormous stamp of confidence on Home Capital.

Same thing when he invested in Bank of America and Goldman Sachs some years ago. He figured those banks were highly likely to survive. (This blog was full of doomers saying the banks would fail). His own huge investments shored up their balance sheets and increased his odds.

Buffett invests based on probabilities not external guarantees. He hones his probability skills by playing bridge for quite a few hours each week. He is a world-class player. His investment bets are usually highly likely to pay off. He does not take “flyers”.

Again choose wisely in what you wish to believe. Understand that believing in doomer sites and conspiracies will affect your future. As Garth has mentioned before, choose your friends wisely as well. We do live in a hierarchical society whether it be in wealth or spirituality or generosity of spirit. Your choices and beliefs will influence whether you are headed up down or stagnant in this hierarchical world.

#139 NotAnAmericanNoMatterWhatUSAsays on 07.25.17 at 11:22 am

@Will re:#83, my apologies Garth….on a roll here as this is one of my big pet peeves. We so-called ‘Americans living in Canada’ (grrr), are luckier than the US slaves (err I mean US citizens) living in other countries. Canadian financial institutions do not ask for proof of non-US citizenship. If they ask if you are American, consider lying. If they ask where you were born, consider picking a Canadian city you lived in as a child. F-them. Oh, and the reason they ask in the first place is because of FATCA (short for F%&k All The Canadian Americans) which our wimpy government agreed to do. FATCA in case your friend doesn’t know is a 1-way ‘agreement’ whereby all countries in the world send USA the bank account details (balances, etc) of those who USA says are its citizens regardless where they live in the world, regardless how long they have been gone, regardless the citizenships of their parents, regardless their source of income, and regardless what other citizenships they hold. But like I said, fortunately, Canadians don’t have to provide papers to prove their non-US personhood, so lying works. In fact sometimes lying is the moral thing to do, as in when a foreign country(with the help of your own country of residence) is trying to screw you for having the nerve to be born on its soil while your Canadian parents lived their temporarily. RANT OVER.

#140 Raging Ranter on 07.25.17 at 11:24 am

So CJBob, you’re admitting that it was likely that Buffet did get a guarantee from the government and you’re ok with it. That’s fine. I pretty much expected the government would act in some fashion to prevent the contagion. But that is entirely different than stating that no guarantee was offered. Buffet’s history with Goldman Sachs ( I earlier mistakenly said it was Bank of America) – in which he purchased shares and later admitted that he knew before the public that the US government had guaranteed it would not be allowed to fail – tells is that much. He likely has not changed his risk tolerance in the years since.

#141 westcdn on 07.25.17 at 11:36 am

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=queen+for+a+day&&view=detail&mid=ACEFD0E00D2A9AB68244ACEFD0E00D2A9AB68244&FORM=VRDGAR
Queen for a Day

This damn show always is in the back of my mind. My mother would watch it. I guess it was to remind her self that there are always people worse off than her. The show was not the pabulum we feed on today. I fear the 3D economy – debt, deflation and demographics.

I am digging in for the worst but hoping for the best. I foresee a future decade of low economic growth and lower disposable income for the working plebs. Opportunities will still exist but the number of free rides is going to harder to get. We may actually enter an era where merit matters more than connections but let’s be serious; good connections are always to be cultivated and will survive as long as people are alive. I do have my problems with people without honour but they are part of life. I treat them like dog poo I find on the bottom of my shoe – something I scrape off and don’t want to experience again.
I found David Rosenberg’s 3D economy opinion interesting. Rosie

What does his opinion do for me? Rosie is not the only one carrying the same opinion. I am in their camp and developing a game plan that excludes government handouts/benefits. I am looking for Canadian companies that display solid financial management, visions and are socially responsible. I have trouble saying this but I am actually reviewing Cdn bank preferred shares. 1 in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. I am trying to build a reliable income stream independent of government largesse.

I still don’t believe real estate is a speculative investment but it is an asset that will hold a long term relative value to personal earned cash flow. I can’t complain because real estate purchases have treated me well despite being under water for a spell with my first purchase. I think the reasons real estate values are holding in Calgary are the humongous government budget deficits and the number of people who consider Alberta home. The huge accumulated government debts re-enforce my concern about a 3D economy. So ends my prattle, thanks for reading.

#142 westcdn on 07.25.17 at 11:39 am

Queen for a Day

This damn show always is in the back of my mind. My mother would watch it. I guess it was to remind her self that there are always people worse off than her. The show was not the pabulum we feed on today. I fear the 3D economy – debt, deflation and demographics.

I am digging in for the worst but hoping for the best. I foresee a future decade of low economic growth and lower disposable income for the working plebs. Opportunities will still exist but the number of free rides is going to harder to get. We may actually enter an era where merit matters more than connections but let’s be serious; good connections are always to be cultivated and will survive as long as people are alive. I do have my problems with people without honour but they are part of life. I treat them like dog poo I find on the bottom of my shoe – something I scrape off and don’t want to experience again.

I found David Rosenberg’s 3D economy opinion interesting which caused me to post. Rosie

What does his opinion do for me? Rosie is not the only one carrying the same opinion. I am in their camp and developing a game plan that excludes government handouts/benefits. I am looking for Canadian companies that display solid financial management, visions and are socially responsible. I have trouble saying this but I am actually reviewing Cdn bank preferred shares. 1 in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. I am trying to build a reliable income stream independent of government largesse.

I still don’t believe real estate is a speculative investment but it is an asset that will hold a long term relative value to personal earned cash flow. I can’t complain because real estate purchases have treated me well despite being under water for a spell with my first purchase. I think the reasons real estate values are holding in Calgary are the humongous government budget deficits and the number of people who consider Alberta home. The huge accumulated government debts re-enforce my concern about a 3D economy. So ends my prattle, thanks for reading.

#143 westcdn on 07.25.17 at 11:41 am

Damn, the links are:

Queen for a day- https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=queen+for+a+day&&view=detail&mid=ACEFD0E00D2A9AB68244ACEFD0E00D2A9AB68244&FORM=VRDGAR

Rosie-
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-22/david-rosenberg-single-most-important-thing-market-over-next-decade

#144 oncebittwiceshy on 07.25.17 at 11:54 am

>>>>>>MF: Buried in all this “happy housing crash” false hope is a few huge cracks:

1) While down since an overall high last April, all forms of housing are way up since this time last year

2) Condos, which are all anybody can afford, are actually STILL up since April.

3) I couldn’t care less if a SFD is down from 1.3 million to 1.1 million since it’s still way out of reach, and has appreciated 4x in value in 10 years.<<<<<<<<

The funny thing is my little speculating, over-leveraged friend is that myrealtycheck.ca shows how well that Vancouver real estate is doing. $51,792,581.00 in dropping prices this month. You really don't want to look at West Vancouver. lol.

The following properties, a small sample, obviously couldn't attract buyers. Bad location? Over priced? I'm sure those Chinese investors would have been interested. Exactly. Too many Real Estate shills losing money and trying to push the string uphill.

Vancouver:

Average Change: -1.34% Up:90 Down:226
Overall $ Change: – Average Change Amount:-163900.57
Showing 56 Most Recent Changes
Show All Changes this Month Show Today's Changes
1507-5515 Boundary Road, Vancouver
Jun 2:$799,000
Jul 24: $783,000
Change: – 16000.00 -2%

211-2828 Main Street, Vancouver
Jun 2:$599,000
Jul 24: $589,000
Change: – 10000.00 -2%

710 2733 Chandlery Place, Vancouver
Mar 15:$559,900
Jul 24: $559,888
Change: – 12.00 -0%

4230 Salish Drive, Vancouver
Mar 25:$550,000
Jul 24: $588,888
Change: 38888.00 7%

7025 Mont Royal Square, Vancouver
Mar 4:$736,000
Jul 24: $683,800
Change: – 52200.00 -7%

201-707 E 20th Avenue, Vancouver
Jun 7:$599,000
Jul 24: $539,000
Change: – 60000.00 -10%

309-1616 Columbia Street, Vancouver
Jun 7:$658,000
Jul 24: $638,000
Change: – 20000.00 -3%

102-1518 W 70th Avenue, Vancouver
Jun 8:$899,000
Jul 24: $859,900
Change: – 39100.00 -4%

411 1485 W 6th Avenue, Vancouver
Jun 12:$920,000
Jul 24: $850,000
Change: – 70000.00 -8%

215 5983 Gray Avenue, Vancouver
Jun 12:$688,000
Jul 24: $678,000
Change: – 10000.00 -1%

1504 1252 Hornby Street, Vancouver
Apr 1:$988,800
Jul 24: $999,000
Change: 10200.00 1%

405 6018 Iona Drive, Vancouver

#145 paul on 07.25.17 at 11:55 am

#121 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.25.17 at 8:57 am

Contrary Canadian on 07.25.17 at 12:25 am
Does anybody know if the August 3 deadline for TREB to make it’s data available is delayed by their appeal against the Competition tribunal’s decision last year?

Interesting take by Bob Aaron:

http://www.bnn.ca/real-estate/video/treb-appeal-a-stall-tactic-toronto-lawyer~921575

Anybody got a prediction as to if and when these guys will finally be forced to make this information accessible? It feels like it’s taking forever, because it is. This all started back in 2011 if you can believe it.

Realtors are useless High School drop out shyster shills. some of them not even finished elementary school. Realtors know they are useless and hold the value equivalent to a travel agent. they are nothing but shyster thugs who lie. The Government should smash this criminal organisation in Half. It’s 2017 not 1980 where realtors still want to remain where information is hard for others to get.
—————————————————————–
Well why don’t you just by a house and get it over with?
I see another drop out than can’t spell organization with no money, no credit, no prospects.
So you just try and drag others down that have a home and family! Get a life!

#146 Mike in Edm on 07.25.17 at 11:56 am

#126 Mike in Edm on 07.25.17 at 10:46 am
Garth (or anyone else)… When is the best guess for when this possible OSFI stress test may actually be implemented? This fall, early 2018? After next year’s budget (which I’m sure T2 is praying will balance itself while he plays with his building blocks)?

Later this year. — Garth

******************

Thank you!

#147 SimplyPut7 on 07.25.17 at 12:06 pm

#91 Contrary Canadian on 07.25.17 at 12:25 am

I don’t know if it was delayed, but for now, you can use the following methods to get the data:

Your realtor can provide you the sold data for listings that you are interested.

You can pay for the daily sold reports through sold.watch

Or you can get the information for free at http://watch.ohmyhome.ca/#/

The section to the left, fourth from the bottom, is for detached and semi-detached (freehold) townhouses that have sold in the past 365 days. The last section on the left, at the bottom, is for Townhouses (with maintenance fees) and condos sold in the past 365 days. Move across the map to go to your target area. Move the other scales to get your preferred price range, number of bedrooms and bathrooms, and sold date range.

If you know the MLS number for homes that have listed in the past, use the MLS search at the top of the left section, it works for homes older than 365 days.

#148 GR1 on 07.25.17 at 12:20 pm

All this talk about the economy picking up may end sooner than later. One-third of Canada’s economy is tied to housing and 12% of people work in jobs tied to construction and housing so a hit on housing will lead to lost jobs, lower wages and incomes. Another one-third is tied to oil and there is little hope of a sudden oil recovery as well. Given that we only find out that recession is here months after it actually hits, watch for the rate hikes to reverse next year but it will be too late as the economy may already be in a deep hole so don’t throw away that shiny metal just yet cause it may surprise many who have the rose coloured glasses on!

#149 Lorne on 07.25.17 at 12:21 pm

#105 Dan.t
http://globalnews.ca/bc/program/the-jon-mccomb-show

Yes at the 29 minute mark, looks like BC real estate will not change anytime soon. NDP gov has basically no plan on how to tackle the unaffordable and housing crisis in BC?? Wasn’t that how they got elected. Man disappointing.

You would think that during the campaign they would have something together so they can implement it right away.

So expect prices in BC to keep rising. No wonder people have lost faith in elected officials. All talk and no action. Just dodge the questions over and over again.

In the mean time good luck finding affordable rents anywhere near YVR or lower mainland and prices just keep rising and get pushed east of Vancouver. Seems the normal in BC, go into massive debt to buy a basic liveable condo or pay insane rents. Go BC!

It looks like the greater fools were the ones watching from the sidelines.

If you simply bought at any price the last 16 years. I guess it doesnt matter if you lied on your mortgage application, used home grants, borrowed from whoever would give you money… there are clear winners.

NDP solution… we need more time to look at things. Brutal
…….
You Liberal supporters are unbelievable! The NDP have now been the government for 7 days….and things are not solved yet!! Yesterday, Andrew Wilkinson, was complaining that the NDP had no idea how to solve the mess at ICBC, which came out in a report this weekend…created by the Liberals during their 16 year reign during which they robbed ICBC and BC Hydro to “balance the budget” It will take a little time to sort through the mess they have been left with. The housing issue would be even worse if Christy was not forced to change her tune about doing anything about foreign buyers when she found out that over 80% of the population supported doing something. Unfortunately, she let her former campaign manager, Bob Rennie, convince her it was a good idea to give $37 500 interest free loan to first time buyers…so they could get into the market (read “condos”) which is Rennie’s staple!

Do not worry, Dan…the NDP will be making changes to the housing market in BC….but maybe waiting a little while to make the right decisions, just might make sense! You may be surprised how soon this actually takes place….but sorry it couldn’t happen within the first 7 days!

#150 TurnerNation on 07.25.17 at 12:24 pm

HCG gonna rip to $20 here. The elites want a payout led by Buffett. Kanada is a footnote on the global balance sheet.

#151 Wrk.dover on 07.25.17 at 12:46 pm

Simple things, sealed beam headlights, the round glass ones, the same bulb as used on virtually every car and truck until the unique expensive plastic ones came along.

Anyhow, they were under five dollars a decade ago, but seventeen dollars today though at NAPA.

Is this the dreaded DEflation they warned about? We used to call this INflation. Yeah I’ve been worked over.

#152 Wrk.dover on 07.25.17 at 12:47 pm

Simple things, sealed beam headlights, the round glass ones, the same bulb as used on virtually every car and truck until the unique expensive plastic ones came along.

Anyhow, they were under five dollars a decade ago, but seventeen dollars today though at NAPA.

Is this the dreaded DEflation they warned about? We used to call this INflation. Yeah I’ve been worked over.

#153 Wrk.dover on 07.25.17 at 12:49 pm

I see triple!

#154 IHCTD9 on 07.25.17 at 1:20 pm

#19 april on 07.24.17 at 7:03 pm
#1 – What “rural areas”?
_____

Probably all with any “bug out” appeal to exiting GTA Boomers. My area is one, and what I saw/see was a few local folks who smelled the scent of RE money in the spring and quickly listed and cranked out a big dollar sale in May/June. A razor thin window of opportunity where very few managed to cash in, and only very new and very nice houses needed to bother listing. One place I know parked in between a corn field and a 250K bungalow went in a bidding war for 750K.

Once the big dollar listings started going – and going for over list – everyone piled on, and now they sit. The big overpriced houses are lines in the water, and will be withdrawn from the market come September if no fishy fools from the GTA nibble.

I am watching 2 big houses that I pass on the way to work, both are nearing a month on the market and are still there. These are 650 + 750K.

The regular 200-350K houses locals buy are going up for sale and selling as per usual.

#155 Maxwell C. on 07.25.17 at 2:10 pm

Why have you been shying away from talking about the Vancouver market, Garth? Is it because it isn’t collapsing at the rate you predicted? Is it because all the shit house-horny morons say is true there?

It’s now boring. Drip, drip lower. — Garth

#156 Braj on 07.25.17 at 2:25 pm

“Again choose wisely in what you wish to believe. Understand that believing in doomer sites and conspiracies will affect your future. As Garth has mentioned before, choose your friends wisely as well. We do live in a hierarchical society whether it be in wealth or spirituality or generosity of spirit. Your choices and beliefs will influence whether you are headed up down or stagnant in this hierarchical world.”

What is your recommendation?

#157 Howard on 07.25.17 at 2:38 pm

#148 TurnerNation on 07.25.17 at 12:24 pm
HCG gonna rip to $20 here. The elites want a payout led by Buffett. Kanada is a footnote on the global balance sheet.

—————————

10th biggest economy on the planet is hardly a footnote

#158 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 07.25.17 at 2:48 pm

Those Mega LNG plants were never going to happen

A big LNG plant canceled today. Petronas $11 billion LNG plant at Prince Rupert canceled. Actually that one was within the range of reasonable cost.

Another one proposed a few years ago was $40 billion and I predicted on this blog two years ago it would never happen as the amount was too large. The project was laughable on its face.:

#98 Shawn Allen on 04.08.15 at 10:41 pm
Shell Kitimat LNG Project will never happen, not at $40 billion anyhow.

I saw some news today that makes me very sure that the Shell Kitimat LNG will never happen.

The news was that Shell is buying BG the former British gas for $80 billion. This is apparently the second largest oil and gas merger ever.

I believe Warren’s Buffett’s largest acquisition was Burlington Northern at about $25 billion.

So $80 billion is a massive amount of money, clearly.

Meanwhile it was sated that the Shell Kitimat LNG project would cost as much as $40 billion. Really? Can we expect an LNG project in Kitimat to happen at an amoun that is 50% as large as the this HUGE oil company merger, the second largest in history.

Is that $40 billion a typo? Should it be $4 billion?

Well Google shows it from last November

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/shell-says-lng-project-in-b-c-to-cost-up-to-40-billion-when-complete?__lsa=fbd5-e3ce

My conclusion just based on these figures: There is no possible way on this earth that Shell and its partners will spend anything close to $40 billion in Kitimat. It simply will not happen. It’s laughable on its face.

I would not be buying a house in Kitimat in expectation that this project will go ahead.

#159 Asterix1 on 07.25.17 at 2:50 pm

And today’s winner for the most ridiculously biased, uninformative and inaccurate articles goes to……..
(drum roll)

The NATIONAL POST, and their “journalist” Mitchell Thompson.

Toronto, Vancouver home sales slow, but don’t expect prices to follow
http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/home-sale-may-be-slowing-in-toronto-vancouver-but-dont-expect-prices-to-follow/wcm/09f670b0-91da-4509-b303-ddc4a35832a9

Quotes from:
* Report from TD Economics.
* TD economist Diana Petramala
* Desjardins senior economist, Jimmy Jean
* Bank of Montreal senior economist Douglas Porter
* Bank of Montreal economist Robert Kavcic
* Royal Bank of Canada economist Josh Nye

Top quote: “Toronto cooled in terms of sales quite abruptly, on par with 2008-2009 recession but you didn’t see much of a decline in prices because the market still remains short on supply,”

WHAT!
-They do not even mention the -17% drop in Toronto in the past 10 weeks. Or the -25% to -30% drops in other cities in GTA.
– The market is not short on supply! Sales are tanking, inventory to the sky.

I feel bad for people who read this garbage article and actually believe (trust) it! National Post you should be ashamed.

#160 WUL on 07.25.17 at 2:56 pm

Difficult to believe after Christy Clark agreed to pay Petronas to liquefy and export BC’s natural gas, the corrupt outfit pulled the pin on its Pacific Northwest LNG development. 100,000s of jobs and multiple billions in the Prosperity Fund gone.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/petronas+pulls+plug+pacific+northwest+megaproject/13897352/story.html

#161 Johnny Boy on 07.25.17 at 3:03 pm

#130 InvestorsFriend on 07.25.17 at 11:05 am

Eric Kushner

said “I am not a colluder” (paraphrased)

hmm that has a familiar ring to it.
…………………………………………………………………..
Like this one?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh163n1lJ4M

#162 Vancouver BACK on Fire on 07.25.17 at 3:09 pm

There goes the ‘Vancouver is collapsing’ narrative posted on this blog – prices back up up up….

Sorry folks – as many have pointed out – its game back on in Vancouver and not just with fiery prices in condos and townhouse. Prices up $1000 a day in June. You can ‘hope’ its a dead cat bounce but deep down you know its something else.

Absolutely, fundamentally, unequivocally unstoppable this market.

Federal Down Payment Changes – no impact

Federal 5 Year Stress Test for Qualifying Buyers – no impact

Provincial Foreign Buyers Tax – no impact

Increased PPT at the higher end of the market – no impact

Local Empty Homes Tax – no impact

Local Air BnB regulations – no impact

Stagnant economy with recessionary pressures – no impact

Sideliners can ‘hope’ that the tiny 0.25 uptick in prices and the PROPOSED OSFI changes will do something, but you only need to look at the list above to know that these changes will just be absorbed by the market. The entire history of measures designed to cool the market over the past numerous years have all utterly and fundamentally failed.

I guess you can always ‘hope’ the new provincial government will make some changes:

——-

#105 Dan.t
http://globalnews.ca/bc/program/the-jon-mccomb-show

Yes at the 29 minute mark, looks like BC real estate will not change anytime soon. NDP gov has basically no plan on how to tackle the unaffordable and housing crisis in BC?? Wasn’t that how they got elected. Man disappointing.

You would think that during the campaign they would have something together so they can implement it right away.

So expect prices in BC to keep rising. No wonder people have lost faith in elected officials. All talk and no action. Just dodge the questions over and over again.

In the mean time good luck finding affordable rents anywhere near YVR or lower mainland and prices just keep rising and get pushed east of Vancouver. Seems the normal in BC, go into massive debt to buy a basic liveable condo or pay insane rents. Go BC!

It looks like the greater fools were the ones watching from the sidelines.

If you simply bought at any price the last 16 years. I guess it doesnt matter if you lied on your mortgage application, used home grants, borrowed from whoever would give you money… there are clear winners.

NDP solution… we need more time to look at things. Brutal

#163 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 07.25.17 at 3:14 pm

Sorry I should not have said the $11 billion LNG plant was within a reasonable range . It was just not as laughable as the $40 billion. More like $4 billion MIGHT be reasonable. The idea that companies would ever invest $11 billion in an LNG export terminal seems ludicrous.

This was going to be the largest ever private investment in B.C. That was a red flag right there.

Maybe some smaller LNG terminal can get done. I totally support LNG exports. But the cost has to be within reason.

#164 Howard on 07.25.17 at 3:17 pm

710 2733 Chandlery Place, Vancouver
Mar 15:$559,900
Jul 24: $559,888
Change: – 12.00 -0%

—————————

LOL desperate clinging to Chinese hope in that price change…

#165 Dan.t on 07.25.17 at 3:24 pm

#147 Lorne
Haha, but I want change NOW.

I am no way a liberal supporter. I think they sold out BC and sold out the locals to big business. I won’t say what I really think of Christy Clark and her policies because I ll get banned for life on this blog…. then what would I do?

At least BC’ers could stop looking at real estate news in the province long enough to realize something has to change. I hope NDP clean up all the shaddy and damaging things that have been going on in BC. Wait and see I guess. There are in a tough spot.

Look at YVR and the lower mainland now. You have the option of a 1 bedroom condo for costs 600k or you just fight with 100 other people to get the honor of renting a 1 bedroom condo for 2k+ a month. And that is happening all over now. But I guess I missed the memo, affordable housing is so overrated.

#166 AGuyInVancouver on 07.25.17 at 3:38 pm

Looks like Revenue Canada wasn’t kidding when they said they were going after flippers. Presale condo buyers beware:

Feds take developers to court over presale flippers
CRA wants to ensure resellers tax compliant; company protective of buyers’ privacy
https://www.biv.com/article/2017/7/feds-take-developers-court-over-presale-flippers/

#167 Ole Doberman on 07.25.17 at 3:48 pm

Sounds like the prolonged depressed energy prices are just now taking a toll on those projects that have held out as long as they could:

http://www.bnn.ca/pacific-northwest-lng-project-will-not-proceed-1.813258

#168 Shawn on 07.25.17 at 3:48 pm

From The Fat Pitch

http://fat-pitch.blogspot.ca/

European equities: European equities are at high risk of underperforming.

A recap: Fund managers had been excessively overweight European equities in 2015-16, during which time European equities underperformed.
That changed in July 2016, with the region becoming underweighted for the first time in 3 years. The region then began to outperform.
European exposure jumped to +54% overweight in July, near a 3-1/2 year high. This is well above neutral (1.5 standard deviations above its long term mean). European equities are at high risk of underperforming.

#169 A Reply to #130 InvestorsFriend on 07.25.17 at 3:51 pm

“Eric Kushner said ‘I am not a colluder’ (paraphrased) … hmm that has a familiar ring to it.”

Are you referring to Jared Kushner, Eric Trump, or someone else?

Tricky Dick Nixon said, “I’m not a crook!” Is that the reference?

Flopster and M—F—, am I being pedantic? :)

#170 Shawn on 07.25.17 at 3:51 pm

From The Fat Pitch

http://fat-pitch.blogspot.ca/

Allocations to US equities dropped to nearly their lowest level since November 2008 in July: this is when US equities usually outperform. In contrast, weightings towards Europe in particular have jumped to levels that suggest this region is likely to underperform. These weightings also suggest that Europe is likely to be the source for any global “risk off’ event. Notably, the S&P has outperformed the Europe’s STOXX600 by 7% the past two months.

#171 Renter's Revenge! on 07.25.17 at 3:53 pm

#148 TurnerNation on 07.25.17 at 12:24 pm
HCG gonna rip to $20 here. The elites want a payout led by Buffett. Kanada is a footnote on the global balance sheet.

That said, anybody following Waste Connections Inc. (WCN) on the TSX? P/E = 76, ROE = 1%, share price up 200% in the last 5 years. 21st largest holding in XIC now, after Magna. Are we seeing a rerun of Valeant Pharmaceuticals here? How is this a legitimate business? Is the mafia involved? How fast is the garbage disposal industry really growing in Canada?

#172 Lee on 07.25.17 at 4:10 pm

#164 AGuyInVancouver,

What will be really painful is for those people who have flipped more than one agreement. They are more likely to be characterized as in effect “mini-developers” and will pay tax on their gains at the top marginal rate, plus possibly penalties and interest. And you deduct no agent’s fees because there were none. I am guessing most people have spent the money so they will be hit with interest as well as they demand time to pay. Almost makes it pointless buying a condo to flip.

#173 Dups on 07.25.17 at 4:14 pm

USD performs better on the second half of the year. Worry about the CAD and our economy. Right now our stock market is still at the same levels as 2009 still trailing US markets by landslide. Half of the largest companies here are still US based or foreign ones. So really what is Canada’s economy other than banking and natural resources and housing? We know how the last one will go. So let’s not beat the rate increase drums just yet.

#174 InvestorsFriend on 07.25.17 at 4:46 pm

Petronas LNG Project was wishful thinking

I now see that the total project was $36 billion.

VANCOUVER — Petronas and its partners have cancelled the $36-billion Pacific NorthWest liquefied natural gas megaproject they had planned to build in British Columbia.

*****************************************
You need to put that in context. $36 billion is HUGE. It’s about half of what the Alberta government spends in a year for its entire budget. It’s close to half of what Canada’s entire energy industry was spending on cap ex at the peak in 2014 (All companies and the whole country).

What was anyone smoking to think this project could EVER justify a $36 billion investment? Laughable. It was NEVER going to happen. That was my opinion from the first time I heard of a $40 billion LNG project about four years ago. (the one at Kitimat, this I think is a different one) It seemed obvious.

#175 Tulips on 07.25.17 at 5:14 pm

#160 Vancouver BACK on Fire on 07.25.17 at 3:09 pm
—————————————————————

Vancouver doesn’t look to be on fire from here:
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends

#176 oncebittwiceshy on 07.25.17 at 5:21 pm

#160 Vancouver BACK on Fire

“Absolutely, fundamentally, unequivocally unstoppable this market.”

There you go my friend, you now have the opportunity to have your quote enshrined besides other notables such as Ben Bernanke in 2007. See, you’re in good company.

Ben Bernanke: (May 17, 2007) “All that said, given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system. The vast majority of mortgages, including even subprime mortgages, continue to perform well. Past gains in house prices have left most homeowners with significant amounts of home equity, and growth in jobs and incomes should help keep the financial obligations of most households manageable.”

#177 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.25.17 at 5:29 pm

#157 Asterix1

No one reads nation post , the star or the other media who’s name I can not remember. They are BANKRUPT and losing money everyday they are open.

#178 Reximus on 07.25.17 at 5:36 pm

No one reads nation post , the star or the other media who’s name I can not remember

—–

What do they read then…

#179 Vancouver is BACK on fire on 07.25.17 at 5:58 pm

#174 oncebittwiceshy on 07.25.17 at 5:21 pm
#160 Vancouver BACK on Fire

“Absolutely, fundamentally, unequivocally unstoppable this market.”

There you go my friend, you now have the opportunity to have your quote enshrined besides other notables such as Ben Bernanke in 2007. See, you’re in good company.

———-

Great, we will revisit it in a year and how the next round of toothless measures have failed to penetrate the market.

In a year, the much vaunted interest rates hikes will surely have kicked in, along with the OSFI rules, and the market will be down right? Many here have been waiting for those interest rate hikes since that is always heralded as the key driver. In less than one year, you will know if that is indeed the case…

I will put you down as a solid bear supporting the current narrative of a market decline. Got it.

#180 Sir James on 07.25.17 at 6:23 pm

Trump wont let China and it’s Globalist allies continue to devalue their currencies to remain competitive.

#181 Sir James on 07.25.17 at 6:32 pm

Hoovering or banning Bitcoin would be akin to banning free speech in the USA. Aint gonna happen without major Constitutional changes.

#182 EmmEmm on 07.26.17 at 1:18 pm

******This is what I got from Tangerine on July 19th******

It’s a great time to apply for a Tangerine Mortgage!

Apply between July 19, 2017 and October 31, 2017 to take advantage of our special offer on a 5 year fixed rate closed Mortgage of at least $250,000:

A fantastic rate of 2.49% / 2.50% APR*
A $700 cash Bonus* to help cover your closing costs

******and this is what I get today******

On July 19, 2017, we sent you an email in error. This message was regarding a special offer on a Tangerine mortgage. We’ve cancelled this promotional offer, and it’s now no longer available.

Please note that if you already submitted a Mortgage application, the offer will be honoured for you.

We are sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused.

#183 Dave D on 07.26.17 at 2:07 pm

Pulling a low interest rate offer:

“Dear client,

On July 19 we sent you an email in error. This message was regarding a special offer on a mortgage. We’ve cancelled this promotional offer, and it’s now no longer available.

Please note that if you already submitted a Mortgage application, the offer will be honoured for you.

We are sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused.

Sincerely,
– the richer than you think bank”