The bottom

Besides hockey, guilt and crappy donuts, we’re really good at irony. What better example than houses? When times were hard, jobs scarce and the dollar plopping we blew the mother of all real estate gasbags. Now that the economy rocks, a serious correction threatens to become a crash. Fear of missing out has become a scramble to get out. Greed, then panic. It’s so classic.

In this case, however, the better the economy becomes the tougher it might be for the value of your home. The odds of a second interest rate increase in 2017 shot up dramatically on Friday with the latest data. Markets now expect another quarter-point increase on Wednesday, October 25th.

That will raise the prime rate at the banks to 3.2%, move secured lines of credit to within spitting distance of 4% and increase the cost of variable mortgages. Fixed-rate home loans will likely move higher in the week or two prior, as bond yields plump ahead of the central bank move. By the way, this would mean the Bank of Canada benchmark would have doubled in 2017. With more to come.

By historic standards this is still stupid-cheap money. But real estate is fueled by hormones, perceptions and stirred loins. The last rate hike didn’t cause a flurry of offers by people with cheaper pre-approved mortgages, for example, the way many forecast. Instead, it just scared buyers. They smell risk.

The Toronto market continues to collapse. The latest stats build on the numbers this blog gave you a few days ago. Fugly. Bigly. Overall sales were down 39% in the first two weeks of July, with a 45% crumble in deals for detached houses. Semis dropped 43% and condos 35%. Listings are starting to shrink as owners understand the market’s turning toxic and gamble that conditions will be better in the autumn. They won’t be.

In terms of price, the GTA average is $760,356. In April it was $919,589. That’s a fade of more than $159,000, or 17.31%. The declines have been historic: down 6.2% in May, another 8.1% in June, and 4.2% in just the first two weeks of July. In the last 15 days alone the average house shed $34,000, or enough to buy eight or nine used Kias.

By every definition, this is a sharp, deep and ferocious correction. If it were the stock market under discussion, we’d be just days away from an official bear market. That makes talk of a rebound in September kind of comical. Or irresponsible. Any buyer jumping in now to take advantage of a 17% price decline might end up losing all of their equity by the end of the year.

The threats are growing. Higher retail sales in May, a strengthening dollar and robust GDP expansion north of 3% confirm the Bank of Canada was correct in raising its rate this month, and certain to do it again in a few more weeks. Ontario’s anti-bubble measures are only now starting to have a real bite, chasing away foreign capital, whacking amateur landlords with new rent controls and spawning myriad CRA audits.

In BC the lefties are now in control, destined to make the 4% price drop and 80% decline in new home starts even worse. Ottawa has just announced measures to raise $500 million more in taxes from the hides of small businesses and incorporated professionals. And the bank regulator still plans on subjecting all buyers to a new mortgage stress test, even if they have a big down payment.

So how, exactly, are things supposed to get better in six weeks? Household debt will still be off the charts, two-thirds of it in mortgages. The cost of servicing $211 billion in home equity lines of credit will go up again. Governments desperate to stop people from buying digs they cannot afford are not about to reverse course and reflate the bubble. And right around the world, we’re in an environment of tightening monetary policy. In other words, you will never again see a bank offer a five-year 2% mortgage.

Simply put, why would anyone buy a property? The 17% slash in prices has occurred in a short ten weeks. An equal loss could lie ahead between now and the end of September – leading into the next round of rate hikes. Yes, there are more choices, vendors are motivated, conditional sales are back and you can spend $160,000 less than your best friend did in March – who now looks like a moron.

The market will continue to descend until it finds a bottom. Not there yet.

180 comments ↓

#1 Cheekmonster on 07.21.17 at 6:11 pm

Another great article. Waterdown had definitely had the same type of drop in prices although there are still a few sellers with houses way over priced hoping to take advantage to some poor impulsive sucker.

Here’s an interesting video of Lang & O’Leary from 2013.

https://youtu.be/fmnxdHHDvoE

It’s interesting listening to them go back and forth over the economy and housing.

#2 NoName on 07.21.17 at 6:12 pm

Besides hockey, guilt and crappy donuts-GT

Only noncrapy donuts in Canada, Grandad Donuts, corner of james and burlington street, dwntwn Hamilton.

https://www.grandads.ca/

#3 Vancouver in the Rearview on 07.21.17 at 6:14 pm

Garth,

A 4% decrease in Vancouver is a lousy start. Prices need to crash by 50% to start to reconnect with local incomes. I’m not a dyed-in-the-wool NDPer, but if that’s what it takes to turn Vancouver and the rest of BC into an affordable place to live, then bring it on. People should not be rewarded for blowing their brains out on debt. A major crash is needed to clean up the mess our political masters and their cronies have created.

#4 AGuyInVancouver on 07.21.17 at 6:15 pm

Here’s some pink pollen for Those About to Flop
3365 Quebec St Vancouver listed June $3.298 mil
removed and relisted mid-July $2.98 mil

#5 nick on 07.21.17 at 6:16 pm

Hope this continues. Will be nice to start a family with a bit more space. And if prices drop enough, even with 3.25-3.5% rates I would be paying peanuts in mortgage due to large downpayment.

Feel bad for other people, but the writing was on the wall and any financial analysis would have told them to not buy. Unfortunately, many people dont know much about this kind of stuff and are victims of main stream media, herd mentality, and shady brokers.

I hope after this hits the fan the government comes down hard on the real estate industry with some major reform. But im not counting on it.

#6 Bobby on 07.21.17 at 6:18 pm

The Coalition of Clowns is now in office in Victoria and already they have stumbled out of the gate. The Office of Group Hugs that is to oversee this union is supposedly going to be publicly funded.
The new minister responsible for housing has a mandate to make housing more affordable. The reality is either incomes have to almost triple or houses have to crash. Which do most think it will be?

#7 Dee on 07.21.17 at 6:24 pm

45%-60% is total amount gta has to correct to get to normalcy but if you’ve participated in booms and busts, they always overshoot to the downside. Will wait for september to confirm this is actual bust as crowd delusion can always suprise us

#8 Mike on 07.21.17 at 6:25 pm

Nothing will crash, or even soft land ‘on year by year basis’. This is Canadian RE.

GTA – will rise again
GVA – year by year up and up and up…..

#9 ole Doberman on 07.21.17 at 6:26 pm

But Gartho what about all this talk of calgary bottoming?

#10 Lee on 07.21.17 at 6:26 pm

Robert Campbell said the minimum crash in Canada will be 50%, possibly 60%. That means a $2M slanty single at Yonge and Egg would drop to $800,000 on a good day. See, math can be fun.

#11 Shawn on 07.21.17 at 6:26 pm

The GTA needs to decline 60%+ in order for the market to be “balanced”.

#12 Lee on 07.21.17 at 6:27 pm

Damn. Fiirrrrsst.

#13 Shawn on 07.21.17 at 6:29 pm

Average price needs to fall to <$500K. The market will probably overshoot to the downside into the low $400Ks then rebound slightly.

#14 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.21.17 at 6:30 pm

More houses that “sold” are back on the market. Hey shyster highschool drop out shills will you adjust the sales numbers and let everyone know? You shyster POGarbage should suffer for a thousand years for your lies and sins. BTW shyster Al on cp24 looked so mad it made it laugh. BTW that caller who asked if she can walk away from a Deal was a realtor shill. Al has his realtor shills call with fake questions. Anyhow Al looked so mad screaming you will get sued and it will be big mistake. Hey Al the housing bubble is all based on mortgage fraud. Now its harder to get a fraudulent mortgage.Happy Housing Crash Everyone Everyone :-)

#15 CRA auditor on 07.21.17 at 6:32 pm

fuuuuuurrrrrst … hah

#16 Stone on 07.21.17 at 6:38 pm

Methinks home prices should drop to an average of $200,000. Yes, methinks that would be correct. Anybody want to go lower?

#17 Stone on 07.21.17 at 6:39 pm

In Toronto.

#18 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.21.17 at 6:46 pm

You dirty highschool drop out shills trying to pump the market. you don’t get it? The elite are crashing the market. You think they will allow you idiots without a high school diploma to buy 4-5 properties and get rich? They will bankrupt you like they did in 1990. You know how many people lost their 3,4,5,6 properties during 1990 crash? people lost it all as will you since no one will buy your cash flow negative properties. No one wants to even close a deal. lol after wasting your time and spending that money you thought you earned is now gone. No money for you. Now you shills are hurting for cash and need money badly or else you are I trouble. Happy Happy Housing Crash Everyone Everyone! :-)

#19 the Jaguar on 07.21.17 at 6:48 pm

“In BC the lefties are now in control,”.

Garth, they have been in control in BC since Christ was a corporal.

#20 Danny on 07.21.17 at 6:50 pm

Great to hear from Garth on these unfolding statistics on the story of the greatest purchase most people make…too bad most purchasers in first few months of 2017 did not look at 5 year history of housing prices.
..they missed the importance of studying trends and jumped to buy because of fear.
But those statistics of historically highest housing prices throw average prices off…and still confuse those who don’t realize importance of longer term historical periods.

Garths new steady statistics are more fuel to keep us informed and counter false propaganda….really a good teacher…….
Today the new promotional literature flyers by real estate agents now pushing hard on “best deals every….with huge discounts ”
Reminds me of hardware owner in the 60’s, I witnessed who listed new higher price on existing price sticker…put line through the higher new price amount and the word “sale” next to original price….Not sale at all but created a false old price…to make buyers think the items were reduced….when really nothing changed.
Old marketing technique….make people think they are getting a deal…this is the emotional part Garth talks about…..and real estate agents use all the time.
Half kilometer around me……8 condos for sale in South Etobicoke…for 5 weeks..no one buying….prices not changing…still as high like April insanity….probably owned by real estate agents…no one living there obvious by pictures.

#21 DON on 07.21.17 at 6:53 pm

#6 Bobby on 07.21.17 at 6:18 pm

The Coalition of Clowns is now in office in Victoria and already they have stumbled out of the gate. The Office of Group Hugs that is to oversee this union is supposedly going to be publicly funded.
The new minister responsible for housing has a mandate to make housing more affordable. The reality is either incomes have to almost triple or houses have to crash. Which do most think it will be?
***************

This deserves a big YIKES! The Coalition of Corruption has just vacated the office and you are getting on the new gov. People have short and specific memories – this also is the case with the current FOMO.

#22 rainclouds on 07.21.17 at 7:00 pm

Would it not have been far simpler for the Feds to use CMHC to target problem areas by increasing requirements in SPECIFIC markets?

If certain areas need babysitting because the general population is either too stupid or too reckless that screams for an intervention.

Letting this fester, knowing that kicking the can down the road will cause much future pain is not leadership.

HOPING the problem goes away by is a classic illustration of political cowardice.

The pain of unwinding this mess gets worse the longer it goes. I hope Wild Bill is much smarter than his actions have illustrated so far. Or, are the Feds still “monitoring the situation”

As my Grandfather used to say “it’s as obvious as a shithouse in the fog”

#23 Oncebittwiceshy on 07.21.17 at 7:00 pm

Check your reality: “A 13 year bull run in places like Vancouver has outwitted, outlived, and outgunned all modes of analysis and critical thinking in real estate. Only realtors, the uneducated dopes lambasted on here, were right. Let that one sink in.

The above is undeniable…”

Okay buds, I understand now. The only renters on this blog that would make this statement are realtors or specuvestors playing the “I’m a poor renter that missed out game.” Too bad.

The funny thing is that the bears would have been right if it hadn’t been for measures enacted to counteract the GFC. Monopoly money was the worst of them but that was an unfortunate casualty of saving the economy. From 2004 – 2007 the Prime rate went from 4.25 to 6.25. Did anyone hear anything in the news on those increases even remotely similar to the headlines surrounding our most recent .25% increase. Anyone, Anyone?

How about our super conservative CMHC. Let’s see, since 2006 we’ve had 40 yr, amortizations,interest only mortgages, zero down mortgages, a program for self-employed Canadians who have difficulty documenting their earnings to obtain mortgage insurance by “stating” their income, as well as the wonderful mortgage sales by our beloved banking institutions.

Yes, those CMHC programs were eventually eliminated and tighter controls have been brought in over the last several years but the point is the rise in housing prices was fairly easy to predict given the environment. No, they were, when you give Joe Millennial who can’t afford a home, monopoly money what did you really think was going to happen?

So, is it easy to predict a crash? Inevitability, yes. Timeline not so much so apparently. However, if you look at all of the factors that are coming together to affect this market negatively you should be able to see the same thing happening as a lot of the bears do.

Unless, of course, you don’t want to.

#24 Nonplused on 07.21.17 at 7:02 pm

Couldn’t 17% in 10 weeks be considered a crash? Especially in a market like housing that isn’t supposed to be so volatile?

Anyway it was preceded by a blow off rally so chances are the number of people who just lost their shirt is pretty low, recent purchasers only.

I think if the bubble does burst a consumer driven recession is right around the corner. Although not the major source of income for most families, HELOC’s have been a major backstop for many of them. That spending will have to stop even if the loans remain serviceable at current levels. And if interest rates do rise that extra money will have to come out of discretionary spending as well.

Add to this all the tax rises coming down the pipes and the consumer is about to get squeezed. He’s already been squeezed by lackluster wage growth for 20 years now but adding taxes and taking away credit isn’t going to help. I guess taxes are kind of neutral from a macro perspective because what the government takes from one person they just give to someone else, but it’s not very economically efficient. Do we really need any more people working for the CRA?

And I just hate the new “small business tax”. Since when was the thinking that targeting small businesses was a good idea? The reason they used to get a break was to encourage small business development. Supposedly someone did a study and discovered that small businesses create more jobs on aggregate than big businesses and occasionally grow into big businesses. One must think the new plan is to discourage small businesses by taxing them higher. It is a fundamental rule of economics that whatever you tax you discourage. That’s what all the sin taxes, carbon taxes, speeding tickets, and dumping fees are about, discouraging those activities. So when we see the government raising taxes on small businesses that were already very well thought out (by that I meant someone spent a lot of time thinking about them, not that they did a particularly great job), we must assume the new strategy is to discourage small business. If so, I suspect the large company lobbyists are the true source of this legislation, not some effort to inject additional “fairness” into the system.

#25 DON on 07.21.17 at 7:03 pm

So how, exactly, are things supposed to get better in six weeks?

Household debt will still be off the charts, two-thirds of it in mortgages. The cost of servicing $211 billion in home equity lines of credit will go up again. Governments desperate to stop people from buying digs they cannot afford are not about to reverse course and reflate the bubble. And right around the world, we’re in an environment of tightening monetary policy. In other words, you will never again see a bank offer a five-year 2% mortgage.

***********
Well yah know…if you click your shoes together and repeat the following to infinite and beyond!

1) Houses prices will never go down.
2) Governments are too indebted to raise rates.
3) Every foreigner in the world likes Canada in the Winter.
4) Everybody wants to buy my house for more than I bought it for last year, with the down payment I borrowed from my parents, it would have been my money sooner or later.
5) My realtor told me that this is the new age of Aquarius and housing is the chosen path.

#26 common sense on 07.21.17 at 7:07 pm

Higher retail sales? More debt added????

Stronger Canadian dollar for a few more months…

#27 Moses71 on 07.21.17 at 7:11 pm

The below article is just an opinion, but seems to answer some questions about how Canadians have such a “low delinquency rate”. How do they sleep at night not knowing where the edge of the cliff may be & when the ride will be over? In the name of over-extending themselves to buy what they can’t afford? What would be the name of the personality trait which would describe this behaviour? Pft no pity here

http://www.macleans.ca/opinion/why-a-low-delinquency-rate-isnt-the-good-news-real-estate-story-you-think/

#28 TheDood on 07.21.17 at 7:11 pm

#3 Vancouver in the Rearview on 07.21.17 at 6:14 pm
Garth,

A 4% decrease in Vancouver is a lousy start. Prices need to crash by 50% to start to reconnect with local incomes. I’m not a dyed-in-the-wool NDPer, but if that’s what it takes to turn Vancouver and the rest of BC into an affordable place to live, then bring it on. People should not be rewarded for blowing their brains out on debt. A major crash is needed to clean up the mess our political masters and their cronies have created.
__________________________________________

Thumbs up to that!

#29 Musty Basement Dweller on 07.21.17 at 7:12 pm

Sure haven’t seen much about the Toronto crash in the mainstream media. At least not out here on the wet coast. Guess that is par for the course but would have expected more chatter in the news by now.

#30 Timmy on 07.21.17 at 7:16 pm

Why isn’t the Vancouver market going down? Every time I look on the MLS site, you can’t buy a decent condo for under $500 grand.

#31 Dr. Talc on 07.21.17 at 7:19 pm

Nothing organic about this. Usually markets self correct.
But we are dealing with politicians who lack the skills to handle the mess created by the previous incompetent politicians: surgery with a sledge hammer, the price drops are a result of a whack job. What’s the point of a whack job combined with a stress test? Less money in the system. People who are short of cash need more government.

#32 Tony the Gino on 07.21.17 at 7:20 pm

Where do I get a house at 17% off? Everything I’m looking at gets relisted even higher. Where do I find this discounted priced home Garth? It’s extremely expensive out there even in Jane and finch.

#33 Gerry on 07.21.17 at 7:20 pm

RE “The Coalition of Clowns is now in office in Victoria and already they have stumbled out of the gate. The Office of Group Hugs that is to oversee this union is supposedly going to be publicly funded.”
——————————————-
This “coalition of clowns, is far better than the corrupt and incompetent Liberals led by Clark, who have been screwing the people of BC for years, turning a blind eye to speculation and money laundering through real estate and shamelessly switching their position in their last dying days trying to hold on to power. You won’t see the NDP taking realtors to China on trade delegations, like corrupt Christy did.

#34 Cheekmonster on 07.21.17 at 7:26 pm

This is what I hear when Millennials talk about buying a house :)
https://youtu.be/G7RgN9ijwE4

#35 Check Your Reality on 07.21.17 at 7:27 pm

#18 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.21.17 at 6:46 pm
You dirty highschool drop out shills trying to pump the market. you don’t get it? The elite are crashing the market. You think they will allow you idiots without a high school diploma to buy 4-5 properties and get rich?
—–

Um, the ‘elites’ have been letting those high school drop out realtors achieve lifetime gains that you will never achieve for about 13 years in Vancouver so far. So ya, they will let them get their wealth, even if there is massive price correction, they will still be far ahead of the sideliners…

A 13 year bull run in places like Vancouver has outwitted, outlived, and outgunned all modes of analysis and critical thinking in real estate. Only realtors, the uneducated dopes lambasted on here, were right. Let that one sink in.

The above is undeniable…

#36 Nonplused on 07.21.17 at 7:27 pm

Oh ya, and that $500 million number is completely delusional. If they think the independent doctors, engineers, consultants, IT folks, and plumbers of Canada have $500 million to spare they are completely crazy. There isn’t that many of them. They are going to pull probably a fifth of that number while causing havoc and rising prices all over the place.

I have a numbered company that I use for consulting that resembles a doctor’s set up. The reason I need it is most of the corporations I consult to will not contract directly for legal reasons (I could be deemed an employee and thus subject to all the payroll taxes and severance laws and all that stuff, plus insurance.) I tend to leave a lot of money in the corporation and only pay myself what I need for living expenses, but it’s all coming out now. I was thinking of trying to invest it within the corporation, but now I need to get as much out now as I can before the changes go through. I suspect pretty much everyone else in my situation will do the same. I’m not having my effective tax rate on work I did up to 3 years ago doubled. That wasn’t the deal, and I’d have had to charge more back then if I knew this was coming.

And I’ve never paid my wife from the corporation or any of that sort of thing. She already has a good job so there wasn’t any real tax advantage to do so. I suspect that is the case for many of the businesses this tax is going after. It is much more of a perceived problem than a real one. Most households already have 2 incomes so income splitting isn’t a thing.

And what if she was unemployed? Why couldn’t I hire her to do all my billing, expenses, irritating things like booking flights and hotels, accounting, and all that other stuff so I could concentrate on high value billable hours? Right now I do all that stuff myself and it represents considerable overhead because I can’t bill for it, or when I hire an accountant he charges even more per hour than I do!

I mean, the system is already absurd! Because I work in the states a lot, I can have to file up to 5 tax returns a year, and it could in theory be more if I worked in more than one state. Now I have to have a sit down with CRA with a lawyer and an accountant present every year to determine whether I dispersed the money correctly? Crazy. I’m retiring. The market won’t bear the increases I will have to make to my rates to pay for all these new taxes, lawyers and accountants just to do business anyways, so I ain’t going to have any business anyway.

#37 BC Evalue on 07.21.17 at 7:29 pm

BC Evalue Assessment shows sold prices for houses for up to three years on BC properties.

Does anyone know why a house that ostensibly sold with a sold sticker on it does not show up in Evalue, sometimes even 4-6 months after the ‘sale.’ Did that sale actually go through?

#38 cd on 07.21.17 at 7:30 pm

hey #2… the best donuts are at dilla’s delights.

http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/dillas-delights-inside-the-opening-of-long-awaited-tribute-doughnut-shop-20160504

#39 steerage steward on 07.21.17 at 7:30 pm

Crappy donuts is right. Why people line up for 10 mins at Tims for mediocre fare is beyond me. Oddly when I mention this to people they take personal offence, as if I just said the Canadian flag looks silly (kinda does..).

#40 And I Quote on 07.21.17 at 7:33 pm

“The reason I talk to myself is because I’m the only one whose answers I accept.”
George Carlin

#41 paracho on 07.21.17 at 7:33 pm

I have seen it coming and Garth Turner was saying it for years. I really think the government should have implemented policies 4 plus years ago to prevent such a catastrophe. They only helped add fuel to the fire and this GTA real estate market has become irrational on top of the irrationality it already was. I am glad I sold 2 years ago .
I miss the irrational exuberance of fellow Wood bridge poster “tony The Gino’ and his claims. Yes, prices are still high, and yes real estate agents and sellers are trying to get top dollar( in the hopes of finding someone who will be afraid to ‘miss the boat’). This will correct with patience and it already has been. I keep driving by a house that has been for sale now for about 4 weeks, another one with a sign that states ‘just reduced’. It is starting and will continue downwards. Just be patient!

#42 Smoking Man on 07.21.17 at 7:36 pm

Listings are dropping and make no mistake buyers are everywhere, sitting and watching. As soon as the choices out there start to shrink and it becomes apperant you will see a massive buying spree.

2000 people a week flock to the GTA in search of good jobs.

The price declines are idiots who bought before they sold. Once gone, wiplash to the sky.

A few bumps in prime nothing to worry about.

Sept will rock.

#43 Nonplused on 07.21.17 at 7:36 pm

#19 the Jaguar

In Alberta we say “since Christ was a cowboy”.

#44 Selina Robinson, NDP on Housing Affordability on 07.21.17 at 7:42 pm

Good read on what she could do:

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/seven-b-c-cabinet-ministers-you-should-know

Still conjecture but write down all the possibilities and even minimally, not good for flippers, speculators and money launderers.

Unit sales low in YVR for SFH & where all the list price drops are – still too high.

FOMO there for condos by 1st time buyers re-entering market but in low rent areas like East Van and Surrey – tells you something about housing affordability there and that people have reached a limit in spending.

Fools.

Between the GreenDP and interest rate hikes, prices will drop in YVR like they are in 416. Maybe worse with a windfall Capital Gains tax on home sales (Andrew Weaver’s idea).

#45 Bobby on 07.21.17 at 7:49 pm

For # 33 Gerry,

I wonder how long it will take the BC NDP to remind us why they were left with only 2 seats after the last time they were in power. It certainly wasn’t for their grasp of economic issues.

Premier Horgan wasn’t elected, he will rely on the Greens for support. Not a resounding endorsement, after 16 years in Opposition, for a supposed government in waiting.

#46 paulo on 07.21.17 at 7:50 pm

any person purchasing a home in the GTA defined as single detached, semi,or row house with dirt under it
should be making there offer based on the property being worth 50% of peak valuation by December of this year.
500 sq foot boxes in the sky will be virtually worthless
at around 35 cents on the dollar of peak value

i can hear the screams of realatards and greedy vendors already but it is a reality that will come to pass

#47 boopsie on 07.21.17 at 7:56 pm

“since Jonah was a pup”

“since Job was a baby”
Old Ontario-speak (likely Maritimes too)

#48 Tony the gina on 07.21.17 at 7:59 pm

Tony Tony Tony … i am michael corleone kissing you alfredo

Patience bambino….there are soo many homes on the market rigjt now.

Calmo…. with time these sellers will have to lower hundreds of thousands….

I know Garth hates gold…but put some, at least 10% or your wealth in gold

The poop poop is coming down….

Forza Peter Schiff…

#49 Nemesis on 07.21.17 at 8:02 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvT1sz41xU4

#50 Dee on 07.21.17 at 8:03 pm

Listings are dropping and make no mistake buyers are everywhere, sitting and watching. As soon as the choices out there start to shrink and it becomes apperant you will see a massive buying spree.

2000 people a week flock to the GTA in search of good jobs.

The price declines are idiots who bought before they sold. Once gone, wiplash to the sky.

A few bumps in prime nothing to worry about.

Sept will rock.

————//

Sure listings will be pulled but nothing is selling and theres no more ammo. Too many rule changes and the fraudsters have been outed. If big listings sept plus still very low sales, this will get uglier than most imagined

#51 SimplyPut7 on 07.21.17 at 8:03 pm

#14 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.21.17 at 6:30 pm

Watching CP24 wasn’t as much fun as I thought it would be.

The realtors are starting to unravel, Al was harsh with that woman who bought a home, can’t sell her current house and wanted out of her agreement because she doesn’t think she will be able to get the financing by the closing date. It is her fault, but many people blindly listened to realtors and didn’t put in writing their offer was conditional on financing and/or selling their current home to win a bidding war.

When the other guest talked about Canadians buying second homes in the US is a good idea because of the tax savings; Al said buying a home in Canada is better, because the exchange rate is not at par, and the home will become dead money, as your family will not want you to sell so they can continue to enjoy the home.

The whole episode was uncomfortable to watch.

I’m starting to think the realtors and mortgage brokers weren’t actually greedy, but just as financially illiterate as the people they were selling homes to.

#52 The Real Story on 07.21.17 at 8:05 pm

Our eldest son works at a high end men’s store, his work has noticed a remarkable drop in sales since the interest rates were raised. They are becoming concerned behind the scenes because most of them know that people shopping there are using credit like never before and even a small uptick in rates seems to have driven away many shoppers. I see not only a housing crash, but a recession not far off if rates rise again. People saying that real estate will only continue to go up, don’t understand how close many people (even apparent affluent people) are living so close to the edge.

#53 Game Over on 07.21.17 at 8:06 pm

A house in my neighborhood (Durham) was originally listed for 600K in the spring and just sat. Was relisted at 549K and continued to sit. Once again, it has been relisted with a new agent, and is now 489k. It is a pretty decent house too, so no lower quality house should go close to that unless someone is dumb enough to pay that.

But of course, there are many greedy sellers trying to command top dollar right now and their listings are sitting. Some inventory is moving, but from what I see, it is the nice places or maybe they moved on the price..

#54 bring it on on 07.21.17 at 8:08 pm

I am delighted that perhaps the long-awaited decline in real estate prices appear to be happening, and that the interest rates are rising. I am not at all worried that my paid off duplex in Kits will decrease in value, in the end by restricting parasitic “investment” in housing from wealthy foreigners and developers, we might end up with a city in which our kids have a future. Bring on the NDP, level the playing field on taxes by the Feds, and let’s see if we can trend towards a little more equality.

#55 Victoria on 07.21.17 at 8:09 pm

Prices are still climbing here on the west coast so not sure what everyone is getting excited about. It also looks like the feds will put the brakes on any future interest rate hike: http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/collapse-in-toronto-home-prices-pressures-ottawa-to-hold-off-tightening/wcm/1bd4443b-0387-45c1-ad32-bd2edbdf3eff

#56 JustMe on 07.21.17 at 8:10 pm

#30 Timmy on 07.21.17 at 7:16 pm

Why isn’t the Vancouver market going down? Every time I look on the MLS site, you can’t buy a decent condo for under $500 grand.

————————————————————————-

BC Government’s Subprime Loans Fueled Almost 7% Of Vancouver Real Estate In Q1

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/bc-governments-subprime-loans-fueled-almost-7-of-vancouver-real-estate-in-q1/

#57 zee on 07.21.17 at 8:11 pm

Garth why wont politicians cancel some of the housing changes introduced recently if prices continue to slide. Or bring new changes to increase demand.They just care about being reelected.
And why are prices sliding so much, consensus was that the new housing rules were very minor and would not impact it in this way.

#58 Rentals on 07.21.17 at 8:11 pm

We sold our house and pocketed some nice gains. We are looking at a rental now and went to visit a few today. Many of the properties were vacant and the realtor said that many people who have been unable to sell are now going to rent there homes out. We are looking in an area where there was rampant investor speculating, as house after house was vacant or brand new, desperate for a great tenant. The prices, were pretty darn sweet too. The agent said the change in the market has been swift and caught a lot of people off guard. For people thinking the GTA is not correcting, you are kidding yourself, this area is in a full blown correction mode.

#59 Lee on 07.21.17 at 8:14 pm

So Garth U attempt to predict future how many BOC increases will it take for keys to be handed over. Or disaster. 5% mortgages. Predict something new.

Canadians don’t default. Learn something new. — Garth

#60 the Jaguar on 07.21.17 at 8:15 pm

#19 the Jaguar @ #43 Nonplused:

In Alberta we say “since Christ was a cowboy”.

The problem with the cowboy insertion is that it loses the fundamental reference to ‘rank’.
You ‘dilute’ the phrase and its deeper meaning.

Real cowboys in Alberta are more rare than many might think. They never show off, except perhaps among themselves for their own amusement. They understand the greater gratification of keeping a low profile while in the midst of non cowboys.

#61 S.Bby on 07.21.17 at 8:16 pm

#30 Timmy
You can thank Crispy Clark and her free FTB money that goosed the condo market this year.

#62 TurnerNation on 07.21.17 at 8:18 pm

In News today: Alberta consumer spending up again this month – many in a row.
And gun violence in Calgary hit highs.

#63 JustMe on 07.21.17 at 8:18 pm

#30 Timmy on 07.21.17 at 7:16 pm

Why isn’t the Vancouver market going down? Every time I look on the MLS site, you can’t buy a decent condo for under $500 grand.

———————————————————————————

Vancouver housing starts plunge 80%

the lack of condo starts in Vancouver may be linked to a current backlog of applications. “[The developers] are probably waiting for permits,”

https://www.biv.com/article/2017/7/vancouver-housing-start-plunge-surprise/

#64 For those about to flop... on 07.21.17 at 8:19 pm

#37 BC Evalue on 07.21.17 at 7:29 pm
BC Evalue Assessment shows sold prices for houses for up to three years on BC properties.

Does anyone know why a house that ostensibly sold with a sold sticker on it does not show up in Evalue, sometimes even 4-6 months after the ‘sale.’ Did that sale actually go through?

////////////////////////////

Hey there,I think I remember reading on the site once that it is meant to be updated within 2/3 months but to your point I have some Pink Snow cases that were confirmed by realtors in February and March of this year and have still not updated on evalue b.c

I am busy nowadays but I will try find time to do a session tomorrow and annoy InfLewenza…

M43BC

#65 Dan.t on 07.21.17 at 8:21 pm

#3 Vancouver in the Rearview
I hear you. It is a joke what is going on around YVR and Lower mainland and all BC for that matter. Based on incomes people are delusional.

I don’t care about a 1.8 million POS tear down but you shouldn’t need to pay 650k for a condo or 600k for a house in Hope BC or 1 Miilion + in Abbotsford. I honestly believe BC residence have never left BC. Do you know what you get in other countries for that money?

Rampant fraud, speculation, and tax evasion(undeclared rental units, shady condo flips etc.), seems to have been rewarded massively and ignored while those who act rationally get screwed. Either you guzzle the cool aid there or pay insane rents. No in between.

I hope the NDP government doesn’t go back on it’s promises to stop the madness.

Not everyone deserves a point grey 2.8 million dollar home but affordability of anything decent almost no longer exists. Housing has become a commodity simply to be held a year and flipped. Not a place to live. No supply because most people own multiple units to flip. Not to live in. Won’t even mention foreign buyers and BC condos being marketed overseas.

Any affordable price point units seem to get bought to be flipped. Speculation all over and the god like belief that it is BC real estate, it can never ever go down. Seems right so far. That is BC.

#66 crossbordershopper on 07.21.17 at 8:26 pm

DELETED.

One more racist comment about natives and you are banned. — Garth

#67 Dan.t on 07.21.17 at 8:28 pm

BC needs to publish stats on how many realtors own multiple properties. I bet the number would be mind blowing. Add that to regular BC residence and there is most of your supply issue. Then add in foreign buyers.

If you are in BC ask yourself who you know personally or from others that own multiple properties. I bet you would be surprised how many people you know who own couple “investment” condos or “investment” houses. And of course they will tell you real estate only ever goes up.

Speculation is rewarded massively in BC.

#68 TurnerNation on 07.21.17 at 8:31 pm

Millennials trust only their phone’s newsfeed.
Patrician parsimony paraded as reality cloaked in fact.
FANGs’ gonna bite them. Big data for the win.

6 senses? Dullard down here.

M41ON

#69 JimmyTwoTeeth on 07.21.17 at 8:37 pm

In Victoria BC, these two recent constructions (neighbouring, tiny lots!) were listed for a few weeks with no bites – and have recent drops:

#380898
2567 Shelbourne St
– was $845k, I think?
– now $799k

#380899
1705 Haultain St
– was $825k, I think?
– now $775k

There was a 3rd property built at the same time there, which got snapped up pre-build completion – I’m guessing for well over $850k. Bet they feel foolish now.

#70 Stone Cold on 07.21.17 at 8:38 pm

The usual Mantra, real estate always keeps going higher is no longer true for greater fools to take on huge debts that can drive them very fast to bankruptcy. That’s why people are not able to commit to buying.
I expect Pot ETF to go up as that’s the only high Canadians are going to get…

#71 Tony on 07.21.17 at 8:40 pm

Re: #32 Tony the Gino on 07.21.17 at 7:20 pm

Try Calgary, Alberta where home prices fall every year until the price of oil steadies above 80 dollars U.S. a barrel.

#72 SoggyShorts on 07.21.17 at 8:45 pm

#35 Check Your Reality on 07.21.17 at 7:27 pm
Only realtors, the uneducated dopes lambasted on here, were right. Let that one sink in.

The above is undeniable…
————————————————-
To be fair, realtors make money when people buy houses, so they always say it’s a good time to buy.
Even a broken clock…….

#73 200k on 07.21.17 at 8:47 pm

#16 Stone

Methinks home prices should drop to an average of $200,000. Yes, methinks that would be correct. Anybody want to go lower?

Let’s see… do I pay $450/mo interest on a 200K home, or pay the landlord $2000,- per month in rent instead?

Hmm…. nope, you will never buy at that price level ever again. Dream on.

#74 waiting on the westcoast on 07.21.17 at 8:51 pm

#23 Oncebittwiceshy on 07.21.17 at 7:00 pm says…
“Check your reality: “A 13 year bull run in places like Vancouver has outwitted, outlived, and outgunned all modes of analysis and critical thinking in real estate. Only realtors, the uneducated dopes lambasted on here, were right. Let that one sink in.

The above is undeniable…”

Okay buds, I understand now. The only renters on this blog that would make this statement are realtors or specuvestors playing the “I’m a poor renter that missed out game.” Too bad.

The funny thing is that the bears would have been right if it hadn’t been for measures enacted to counteract the GFC.”

I agree with Check your reality but I am no Realtor or specuvestor. Just because I missed out doing what made sense to me does not change the fact that it happened. I agree with your assessment about why it happened… unfortunately, that doesn’t help my situation… ;-)

I was fortunate that I invested the monies and have reaped some solid returns but arguably I took more risk since I invested in businesses.

#75 waiting on the westcoast on 07.21.17 at 9:08 pm

Oops… Meant that I missed out investing in real estate which did NOT make sense to me at the time…

#76 Frank Blood on 07.21.17 at 9:08 pm

Re: #39 Steerage steward. Amen brother. Finally, someone else who hasn’t drank the Tim’s Kool-aid. Crap donuts, coffee no better than grocery store brands and don’t get me started on the hypocrites who EVERY morning sit in their vehicles idling for 20 minutes and then bemoan “climate change”. Agree on the flag.. a leaf? How trite. Thankfully it wasn’t a beaver or moose.

#77 the sky is falling... or the bottom? on 07.21.17 at 9:17 pm

Hey Flopster,
I was looking at this house in my freinds’ neighbourhood: 50 Skyline trail, in Nobleton.
Initially listed at 2.888m, then dropped to 2.588m and it’s now listed at 2.195m.
That’s 24% down! And not sold yet.
Btw, no sales in little sleepy Nobleton in the last 11 days. Nada.

#78 the sky is falling... or the bottom? on 07.21.17 at 9:18 pm

I know you focus on BC, but hey, Ontario’s got plenty of that pinkish pollen too ;)

#79 Ronaldo on 07.21.17 at 9:26 pm

#4 AGuyInVancouver on 07.21.17 at 6:15 pm

Here’s some pink pollen for Those About to Flop
3365 Quebec St Vancouver listed June $3.298 mil
removed and relisted mid-July $2.98 mil
————————————————————-
July 1st Assessment – 2.257 mil.
Previous year – 1.513 mil.

But it was purchased for 1.358 May 13/15. Hardly pink pollen at 2.98 mil.

Even if they spent a couple hundred thousand on a reno, this thing has a long way to drop yet even from its latest assessment in 2016. Crazy stuff happening in that area with realtors.

#80 Willy H on 07.21.17 at 9:40 pm

Hope that this downward trend in housing prices continues.

Work in north T.O. and when housing comes up in conversation (around the water cooler) 80% of the folks in my office regard this as little more than a temporary blip. They trot out the same old arguments like immigration, foreign buyers and the “fact” that real estate has been, by far, their best investment… Of course almost all these folks are over-exposed in this asset class.

Fall 2017 and spring 2018 will truly tell the tale.

Prices would need to roll back to 2015 (and prior) before I would call this a correction of any real significance with any profound impact on affordability.

If these interest rate hikes continue over the next 18 months with predictable regularity and they are accompanied by increased oil prices (which I believe are inevitable despite what many confidence-spinning analysts peddle) I believe the Canada’s housing market will come hurtling back to earth (with the exception of pockets in western Canada).

#81 Shawn on 07.21.17 at 9:41 pm

I’m going to go out on a limb and call the average Toronto home price will decline to $414K in 2018 – a decline of 55%. Essentially a crash. Time will tell.

#82 Curious on 07.21.17 at 9:42 pm

Are the prices of houses in Edmonton going to crumble also???

#83 Shawn on 07.21.17 at 9:49 pm

Of course this would imply that the collateral damage to the economy would be severe and a recession in 2018 would ensue. Yeah, that’s probably what will happen. The velocity of the decline is too rapid. Too many will become insolvent in a short period of time. There’s no avoiding it.

#84 Mark on 07.21.17 at 9:49 pm

Although the Bank of Canada these days is downright unpredictable and not data driven, more rate hikes? Really? Another month of month-over-month deflation, Inflation trending down to 1.0% YoY and destined to go much lower, and the Bank of Canada is still thinking that tightening is the way to go?

Stranger things have happened, but the exporters are going to have a hard time maintaining any momentum, and at this point, planners must be penciling in the proposition of a 90 cent Canadian dollar in their plans. Not exactly good for future investment in Canadian production. Especially if there’s tightening up on NAFTA and Canada’s access to the US markets for its manufactured goods.

#85 Mark on 07.21.17 at 9:52 pm

“Methinks home prices should drop to an average of $200,000. Yes, methinks that would be correct. Anybody want to go lower?”

Sounds in the ballpark, considering that housing needs to be restored to a historic 2.5-3X average of house price to income, and income itself is likely to fall, especially in the most bubbly areas in which income itself is heavily inflated from asset appreciation (ie: those extravagantly paid construction workers, Realtors, lawyers, mortgage brokers, etc.). Even if income doesn’t fall, there inevitably will be some overshoot to the downside.

#86 Joe Knows on 07.21.17 at 9:58 pm

I’m not sure what some people are smoking, thinking that a correction hasn’t begun in the GTA. I live in Etobicoke nothing moving here, you can now buy a single family detached for 899 – well probably lower because the house has sat for weeks now, no one cares, no one wants it. Freinds in Mississauga, None of those McMansions are selling. The McMansion next to my friends started off thinking they could get 1.8, down to 1.5, down to 1.4 – crickets, nothing. Siblings in Milton, turn off the gas, that turkey is done, no one wants the homes that are held together with hot glue and particle board, other family in Oakville, minds well call it Deadville, as nothing is moving, prices dropping by 10, 20, 30 thousand every few weeks. Wake up, the party is way over. Those thinking it’s not, my guess is they are highly leveraged and now afraid.

#87 mike from mtl on 07.21.17 at 9:58 pm

#39 steerage steward

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Yep this is totally an ontario thing, strikes me off guard every time travelling there. Why? they’re no better than McGas or Dunkin’ (remember them?) in the US.

Here in eastern Canada there’s zero of this ‘nationalistic pride’ associated with Tim’s unlike TO. Lining up out the door for microwaved doughnuts and terrible watery coffee is unheard of here.

Probably western canada is like this, avoiding this forced psychosis of canadianisms?

#88 45north on 07.21.17 at 10:00 pm

Willy H: Fall 2017 and spring 2018 will truly tell the tale.

I’m surprised that prices have fallen so much already. In the US, sales slowed and then a year later prices fell.

#89 TheDood on 07.21.17 at 10:03 pm

#71 Tony on 07.21.17 at 8:40 pm
Re: #32 Tony the Gino on 07.21.17 at 7:20 pm

Try Calgary, Alberta where home prices fall every year until the price of oil steadies above 80 dollars U.S. a barrel.
____________________________________________

….which will probably not happen again in our lifetime!

#90 Oh Milton, you smelly beast on 07.21.17 at 10:06 pm

So I have this townhouse listed for some crazy price 649, of course no one wants it, so I re-list at 10 grand lower, 639 – still no one gives a crap. The house is vacant, the wife and I split, can’t understand where all the FOMO’s have gone? Why doesn’t anyone want to buy my inflated townhouse that is surely one of those homes held together with Almer Glue? Where are all the idiots? I wanted to cash out this pig, but no one has come to my barbecue.

#91 This Market Is On Fire on 07.21.17 at 10:13 pm

Buy, buy, buy, my townhouse that is listed for some stupid inflated price. Where are the greater ones? Sounds like still a few left in Vancouver, but looks like the pool of dummies has run out in Milton. At least my ex won’t end up with a whole bunch of cash for her new boob job, to try and lure some other sucker into her web of lies!

#92 For those about to flop... on 07.21.17 at 10:15 pm

I have put these two condos up a couple of times asking for someone with access to the Mls to tell me what they sold for a couple of weeks ago.

The silence was deafening, was that because the results are that bad or because you guys lost interest in helping me when I showed a case where someone lost 600k plus expenses?

One of the reasons I try to spend some time on condos when someone overpaid and tries to flip is because I have people writing me to ask me if any trouble is going on the lower end of the ladder.

These cases did not have much wiggle room, if they went for well over 600k then no problems but I did find it strange after going on and off the market so much that they sold within a few days of being put back on.
There is a condo in the same building with two bed and two bath for roughly 80k more than these guys paid.

I spend most of my time looking at houses in the 1-2 million price range as most likely if things continue to go south this is where I see the most people getting crushed.

The Flop is from Tasmania and is stubborn and relentless and will find out and so you might as well tell him now and do some good for the fine folk on here…

M43BC

5001-5511 Hollybridge Way, Richmond SOLD

Dec 18:$689,000
Jul 10: $578,000
Change: – 111000.00 -16%

5003-5511 Hollybridge Way, Richmond SOLD.

Dec 18:$689,000
Jul 10: $569,000
Change: – 120000.00 -17%

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/5511-hollybridge-way/5003

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDBOQjRVQw==

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/5511-hollybridge-way/5001

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDBOQjRVOQ==

#93 Spectacle on 07.21.17 at 10:18 pm

Best doughnut::
Parallel 49 coffe . 4th avenue Vancouve BC. The Glazed Bacon doughnut. My wife greatly prefers not to eat bacon, But, she tasted my doughnut, and….back to the store for her own. Yes that good. ( note to Garth. I will courier you one , to copy for your Country Store. People will crawl through the burning forest from BC for them.

-who now looks like a moron. = everyone purchasing real estate in the 2017 market in Canada.

#94 I'm still hungry on 07.21.17 at 10:18 pm

I want some chips. If I had a chip for every
over-leveraged idiot in the GTA, I’d be super full right now.

#95 jay on 07.21.17 at 10:19 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/canada-wants-to-double-its-international-student-body-1.2497819 International students take up a lot of rentals in Vancouver, this has to be having a major impact on rental and housing stock .Rental crisis on the way .

#96 Sasamat Sourdough on 07.21.17 at 10:28 pm

67 Dan.t on 07.21.17 at 8:28 pm
BC needs to publish stats on how many realtors own multiple properties. I bet the number would be mind blowing. Add that to regular BC residence and there is most of your supply issue. Then add in foreign buyers.

If you are in BC ask yourself who you know personally or from others that own multiple properties. I bet you would be surprised how many people you know who own couple “investment” condos or “investment” houses. And of course they will tell you real estate only ever goes up.

Speculation is rewarded massively in BC.

————————————————-
This is so true. I work with people who talk about how crazy prices are in Van and then mention that they own multiple investment properties and play it off like it’s all the foreign money that is making prices crazy. They’re totally ignorant to their role. Surely foreign money adds gas to the fire but amateur speculators or local investors play a much bigger role than the public realizes.

I used to tell myself I just needed to get a job transfer out of the lower mainland to get a house. But now in the last 3 years it seems like houses that were in the 300s are now in the 500s all over Vancouver Island and the interior of BC. Places with no jobs but average houses are a half mill. What Garth says makes sense but BC sure hasn’t followed the path of the GTA so far.

#97 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.21.17 at 10:28 pm

Remember my shyster friends that housing can have fake equity on the way up but the debt remains real on the way down. The elite played this game all over the world as they crashed the markets onr by one. You think they will let you get away? No one walks away from this housing crash bloodbath. Keep hoping because that’s all you shills have left. The housing crash is causing realtors and mortgage brokers to scream in horrible financial pain as buyers walk away. No sale for you. No money for you. Lots of Bill payments waiting for you . Happy bankruptcy realtor shills and speculators! :-)

#98 Rexx Rock on 07.21.17 at 10:29 pm

I know a young guy from the Netherlands who lives in Bali for 8 months a year.He works 4 months a year in Europe but lives with his parents so he saves alot of money when he’s lives there.Anyway he pays $1800 a year for a small studio in Bali that he rents for a year.$100 to $150 a month for food.He also has a scooter so add on $50 a month for gas and $75 for utilities.$600-$800 a month to live in Bali.Might be making the move there or Puerto Vallarta in the next few months.Canada is finished,whats the point of working to pay for bombs, bullets and welfare.

#99 ANON on 07.21.17 at 10:31 pm

The market will continue to descend until it finds a bottom. Not there yet.

And no image of a promise-based mania, based on the narrative of getting more at a later time at the end of this (excellent: and by no means brown nosing, really not into that) post?
Getting sloppy! ;)

#100 n1tro on 07.21.17 at 10:31 pm

#52 The Real Story

Don’t know much about high end men’s clothing since I’m not into that stuff but I find it interesting to see people drive their high end cars in weather like today (31C with humidity of 37C?) with their windows down. Could it be they can’t afford the AC? Or maybe these people just like the heat….in their leather seats.

#101 Capt. Serious on 07.21.17 at 10:35 pm

Most of this action is happening in T.O. and B.C. Where I live in Ottawa houses are still selling briskly. In my area all the houses listed this spring have sold. My wife’s co-worker had 16 people through her house and sold over asking. It’s not a great time to buy a house, but here houses are not entirely unaffordable. Must be the boring government workers, unable to work up the courage to recklessly overbid.

#102 Russ on 07.21.17 at 10:38 pm

Here in eastern Canada there’s zero of this ‘nationalistic pride’ associated with Tim’s unlike TO. Lining up out the door for microwaved doughnuts and terrible watery coffee is unheard of here.

Probably western canada is like this, avoiding this forced psychosis of canadianisms?
====================

Hey Mike,
It’s not as bad about Timmy’s coffee, except with the redneck crowd. It’s all about hockey, ya ‘no’.

The flakes (millies, SJW and other disadvantaged) seem to go after Charbucks, which started up way back when, just down the road a bit.

At the time it became popular we had been buying custom roasted coffee from Thetis Island for a few years and wondered what the hype was all about. The roast master said it was easy to over-roast sub-quality beans and make it taste okay and only 5% of the population can taste the difference.

Sold signs are still going up in Nanaimo but I don’t know if the market is hot. Not much B.S. about chinese dudes on the shop floor of the factory. It is summertime after all and most of us are out of doors these days.

#103 Capt. Serious on 07.21.17 at 10:42 pm

@ #98 Rexx Rock on 07.21.17 at 10:29 pm

Well sure. When you’re young you can do all kinds of crazy shit and still get it together in time to afford a life and retirement. More fun than paying a mortgage and being house poor in the T.O. at 28, no doubt. When you’re living solo without any responsibilities, life’s a breeze.

#104 MF on 07.21.17 at 10:45 pm

Condos in the GTA are still up this month. This is probably because they are all people can “afford”, especially the all important first time buyers.

I am with Smoking Man on this one. Still lots of people watching and waiting. Condos being hot still prove real estate is still seen favourably. SFH will pick up again.

What other investment is there?

MF

#105 Capt. Serious on 07.21.17 at 10:46 pm

@ #84 Mark on 07.21.17 at 9:49 pm

JC Mark, the BoC isn’t setting rate policy in a vacuum. As long as the Fed keeps ratcheting up, up she goes in Canada as well. You’re kidding yourself if you think Poloz can plot some kind of other course. Low inflation and higher interest rates, get used to it.

#106 For those about to flop... on 07.21.17 at 10:48 pm

I see some people trying to help me with Pink Lemonade and so i will remind people what constitutes this for my cases.

Someone who has bought a house , normally recently,and has it back on the market below what they paid for it or up to 10% more to allow for closing costs.

As I have alluded to before if I find a listing that is in the 10-20% range but does not have an assessment or a comp to support their number I have a folder that I labeled ” Possible Pinkies” and I follow them as they work their way down or sell normally around the 10% mark walking away with a profit after closing but perhaps not what they thought they were going to get.

There are a lot of cases that I don’t put up on here that go down like this.

I just erase them and think good for them and move on to the next case without much emotion.
Occasionally I see a case and say”Wow” or something out loud but there is no high-fiving or anything going on as I am in the business of trying to show what is going on in my own amateur way and not kick someone while they are down.

I appreciate the help and if I don’t post for a while I have not given up on this project but there will be more times in the year where I can dedicate more time to it than others.

I am trying to pace myself.

This thing is not going to be a sprint,it will be a bloody and brutal marathon…

M43BC

#107 MF on 07.21.17 at 10:49 pm

03 Capt. Serious on 07.21.17 at 10:42 p

Being young and single in the GTA is where it’s at. Lots of places to go and people to meet.

Anyone who bought one of those condos has already made money over the years and is not “house poor”. Monthly’s are low as we all know as well.

MF

#108 MF on 07.21.17 at 10:53 pm

#87 mike from mtl

Tims is a business that employs a ton of Canadians (usually new immigrants starting out).

My new immigrant gf is addicted to coffee and cycles between starbucks, tims, mcdonalds, aroma.

She pegs tims coffee as middle of the road so it’s not all bad!

MF

#109 Happy Housing Crash Pain on 07.21.17 at 10:54 pm

Happy Housing Crash Guy. . .You are right. . .all us realtor shills are screaming, we’re moaning, we are puking our brains out yelling . . .ahhhhhh ahhhhhhhh, I’m such an idiot, why I don’t even have a high school diploma, I only have my GED. Ahhhhh, their taking my Audi, their repossessing my fake Rolex, I’m screaming, I’m crying on the inside like a winner, but there’s no money in my bank. I bought a whole bunch of homes in Milton on spec, next to the Municipal Waste Dump and now I am terrified that there are not any dummies left bigger than me. Oh the horror, I have nightmares of a hot glue gun chasing me around trying to affix the carpet that has pulled up from the particle board. Keep buying in Milton, please, please. My wife is going to leave me, if she figures out that I’m not as smart as I told her I was.

Ahhhhhh ahhhhhhhhhh!

#110 Capt. Serious on 07.21.17 at 10:56 pm

Wait, don’t brokers always say there is time to convert from variable to fixed when rates start to move up? LOL.

#111 Viorelli on 07.21.17 at 11:08 pm

The communist govt of Canada is going to shoot itself in the foot. Many successful businesses who were employing numerous workers are already closed and moved production off shore due to lower wages and lower corporate taxes, less red tape, and better returns on investment. Two friends of mine already closed the shop, one in Langley, BC who moved his glass business to Mazatlán, Mex. 16 people on the street now collecting welfare, one manufacturer of dental supplies in Ontario, moved all his operations to Hong Kong as well, 32 people on the street there. Total 48 people on the street now, thank your Government of Mr. Trudeau and Wynne. Why would anyone invest money or keep it here anymore, either in real estate or in corporations? Do yourself a favor and move your business and all your capital off shore. Screw the communists.

#112 The Mayor of Milton on 07.21.17 at 11:21 pm

Hello Fellow Readers,

As the Mayor of Milton, I would like to assure you that our quality Milton Homes are still a great investments for you and your loved ones. I encourage you to come to all of our open houses this weekend, you will see that there is plenty of parking available. We pride ourselves on streets that are elegantly lined with Aluminum Siding. You may also see fake Stone accents occasionally and enjoy our rustic landscape as most people here do not mow their lawn. You can meet a host of delusional sellers with over inflated prices that can attest to our lovely mediocre existence in this soulless suburb about a two hours drive to Toronto in traffic. Stop by and pick up the limited GO Service Scheduel, we hope you don’t work later than six, or oops you won’t be able to get home, because we pride ourselves on a great work-life balance. What’s that sound you ask, well that’s the new increased CN rail traffic through the heart of our great city. Don’t worry chemical spills from those tankers hardly ever happen. We also have many large cell phone towers conveniently located next to where your child will attend school. Apparently the radiation helps them to concentrate. Where’s the shopping you ask, well my friends I’ll meet you at our glossy Walmart, for some great “roll back prices.” Where’s the culture? Well I’m glad you asked, we pride ourselves on being not “too cultured” so that we don’t attract any really interesting types. Looking forward to meeting you all at the open houses this weekend!

#113 Smoking Man on 07.21.17 at 11:21 pm

Demo rats

https://youtu.be/Twb65Ov67ZA

Not realizing his enimys of his youth are the motivation of. We don’t need no education.

#114 Smoking Man on 07.21.17 at 11:32 pm

Sid under the bus. I’ll nevet forgive you roger.
So you wrote a guilt song. You could have saved him.

Greed with epic virtue signaling.

Long live Sid.

https://youtu.be/WNJlKaF8sJc

#115 Shortymac on 07.21.17 at 11:43 pm

Well I noticed a huge change in market, my landlord became greedy and tried to demand an extra 600/mon in rent.

Put in my 2 mons notice, just dropped off a letter claiming I still owe the rent for the last 2 mons of my tenancy. Illegal bullshit.

Getting lawyers involved, shouldn’t have taken out a mortgage on your long paid off property to buy another rental unit at the top of the market.

Absolutely nuts.

Pulling a smoking man and getting blitzed tonight. Too much stress

#116 Frank Blood on 07.21.17 at 11:53 pm

Re: #87 mike from mtl. I can assure you it is not just an Ontario thing. In Calgary the Tim’s lemmings line up all day, morning, afternoon, evening.

#117 Smoking Man on 07.21.17 at 11:55 pm

Its in my book. Youthfullizing humans when a distraction was needed.

https://youtu.be/OZEMiZmivjM

#118 Fish on 07.21.17 at 11:59 pm

#112 The Mayor of Milton on 07.21.17 at 11:21 pm
Hello Fellow Readers,

As the Mayor of Milton, I would like to assure you that our quality Milton Homes are still a great investments for you and your loved ones. I encourage you to come to all of our open houses this weekend, you will see that there is plenty of parking available. We pride ourselves on streets that are elegantly lined with Aluminum Siding. You may also see fake Stone accents occasionally and enjoy our rustic landscape as most people here do not mow their lawn. You can meet a host of delusional sellers with over inflated prices that can attest to our lovely mediocre existence in this soulless suburb about a two hours drive to Toronto in traffic. Stop by and pick up the limited GO Service Scheduel, we hope you don’t work later than six, or oops you won’t be able to get home, because we pride ourselves on a great work-life balance. What’s that sound you ask, well that’s the new increased CN rail traffic through the heart of our great city. Don’t worry chemical spills from those tankers hardly ever happen. We also have many large cell phone towers conveniently located next to where your child will attend school. Apparently the radiation helps them to concentrate. Where’s the shopping you ask, well my friends I’ll meet you at our glossy Walmart, for some great “roll back prices.” Where’s the culture? Well I’m glad you asked, we pride ourselves on being not “too cultured” so that we don’t attract any really interesting types. Looking forward to meeting you all at the open houses this weekend!
**************
You caught my attention, since my x I think is up I that neibourhood
GO MILTON

#119 Smoking Man on 07.22.17 at 12:14 am

Going for God lately. Brain cells old and roting.
https://youtu.be/LRP8d7hhpoQ

#120 jane24 on 07.22.17 at 12:25 am

Well Garth I always thought that your long held view of an initial 10% drop in RE prices and then a soft float lower over a few years did not take into account our instant web based world of today. In 1989 for the last crash we didn’t have the ability to talk to everyone instantaneously as we do today. The herd is now spooked and will stay that way. Sept RE business will be truly ghastly and stay that way until incomes and prices come back into balance.

If you want to sell a property do it now and cut hard and fast so you are the cheapest option in your neighbourhood. The cheapest always sells no matter what the market. Don’t chase the market down. Cut now.

#121 Nemesis on 07.22.17 at 12:34 am

#49ImposterAlert

#122 Phily on 07.22.17 at 12:41 am

Burst the balloon -17.31%
A realistic correction then begins

#123 nick on 07.22.17 at 12:58 am

#112 The Mayor of Milton on 07.21.17 at 11:21 pm

ROFL

#124 Damifino on 07.22.17 at 1:05 am

#55 Victoria

It also looks like the feds will put the brakes on any future interest rate hike
——————————–

If a lousy quarter point hike can blow up Toronto’s entire housing market, then so could a truck backfiring on the Gardiner Expressway. If it’s all that fragile there’s nothing worth saving anyway. Let ‘er rip.

#125 Nonplused on 07.22.17 at 1:13 am

#60 the Jaguar

In the old west “cowboy” was the lowest rank you could have, it meant you didn’t even have your own land. You were a hired hand for the worst kind of job.

It’s been glamorized by various movies, but that job really sucked. Sleeping on the ground in the middle of the prairie with the rattlesnakes and no danger pay.

And cowboys show off all the time. Calgary Stampede anyone? They managed to turn steer wrestling into a contest. Sure it was an important job skill for cowboys, but it’s similar to the lumberjack games. You don’t see accountants having those sorts of contests.

#126 Nonplused on 07.22.17 at 1:24 am

#60 the Jaguar

Oh and I forgot, the real purpose of the Calgary Stampede morphed over the early years from and opportunity for cowboys to show off their skills and get better pay to an opportunity for breeders to show off their stock, which it remains to this day. That’s why the bulls and horses make up half the score on the judged events. (And all rodeo is included. Half the purpose is a possible payday for the guy who stays on the bull and entertains the crowd but the other half the purpose is to show off the bull. Otherwise ranchers would not enter their prized animals into such a thing. It’s similar to horse racing in that regard.)

#127 Nonplused on 07.22.17 at 1:31 am

#60 the Jaguar

I apologize, I should finish these thoughts before hitting submit.

So the reason “since Christ was a cowboy” is funny, is in the old days the land-owning ranchers thought their prize bulls were worth more than the vagabond cowboys they hired to tend them. Still do actually. What’s a prize bull worth? Easily $200,000 and up. What’s the winning bull rider get at the Calgary Stampede? I think it’s still $50,000, and there is only one who get’s it. The top rider is worth about 1/4 of what the worst bull in the contest would fetch at auction.

#128 One way or the other, by Oct. the Truth on 07.22.17 at 1:31 am

I have to admit, I am addicted to this Blog (thanks Garth for all that you do) and the Comments section (some very talented writers here).

Few RE Pumpers commenting here nowadays and if they do, they immediately become red meat for the Comment wolves (which makes for some very interesting reading).

We will know how bad the YVR and 416 RE Sector & related Sectors have become once the Statistics Canada GDP and Jobs Reports for the Summer become known (August: July GDP, June Jobs; September: June/July GDP and August Jobs).

One way or the other, the truth will come out about how bad it has become.

Here’s hoping any losses offset by the rest of the economy.

If not, some Commentors here, already talking Recession, may get their wish. And that cannot be good for Canada overall.

#129 Oft deleted - overly honest but politically incorrect stock picker on 07.22.17 at 2:00 am

Manga just told the Wynne gang that he’s serious about taking his 22 thousand employees and plants out of Ontario due to uncontrolled government greed…..well….he said that….in so many words. This on top of the thousands of companies and hundreds of thousands of jobs evaporated under the socialists. The greenbscam is a bust….but taxpayers are on the hook for billions in dark contracts……this leads me to think of the NDP wrecking ball that has already moved to shut down energy, construction and finance in BC . BC went from first to last below Arkansas last NDP regime…..expect the same. Unions will all get raises….of course…..but Magna will not be relocating to BC…..that’s for sure.

Btw…..bought all five issues showing positive rsi as mentioned earlier putting my money where my mouth is. But this talk of buying Europe……you may as well be buying real estate in Toronto based on the salesmens opinions.

#130 BC Xennial on 07.22.17 at 2:38 am

http://www.cbc.ca/radio/popup/audio/listen.html?autoPlay=true&clipIds=&mediaIds=1003320899921&U=%5Bobject%20Object%5D&title=canadians-should-be-worried-about-real-estate-slowdown-says-expert&contentarea=radio&subsection1=radio1&subsection2=currentaffairs&subsection3=the_current&subsection4=&contenttype=audio&publishedTime=1500466144424&updatedTime=1500487324035

#131 Vanrentor on 07.22.17 at 4:06 am

The crazy rental market in East Van

https://www.reddit.com/r/vancouver/comments/6osnsn/tonights_open_house_fun_at_my_place/

“My landlord held an open house at 5pm-7pm tonight for my $1200, 500 sqft, 1 bedroom basement suite in East Van. It’s a nice place and a good location. At least 50-60 people turned up between 4.30 (early) and 5.15ish alone. A few had brought the deposit in cash and were DESPERATE for the place, it was crazy. The landlord decided to shut it down at 6, and taped a sign to the door saying it had finished and why with an apology. I’ve had people angrily kicking at my front door, screaming that I’m a ‘motherfucking whore’ through my open window (I’m the tenant guys!) and now someone just dumped eggs through my letterbox. Even after the open house hours and seeing the sign, some guy came to my window while I was eating a meal to ask if he can negotiate something because he has to get thi”s place.
How has the rental situation come to this? It’s really sad. Although it’s made me feel a bit better about leaving Vancouver…”

#132 WUL on 07.22.17 at 5:28 am

#60 the Jaguar on 07.21.17 at 8:15 pm
#19 the Jaguar @ #43 Nonplused:

In Alberta we say “since Christ was a cowboy”.

The problem with the cowboy insertion is that it loses the fundamental reference to ‘rank’.

You ‘dilute’ the phrase and its deeper meaning.

Real cowboys in Alberta are more rare than many might think. They never show off, except perhaps among themselves for their own amusement. They understand the greater gratification of keeping a low profile while in the midst of non cowboys.

spursspursspurs

You are absolutely correct.

I have known for 43 years of Stampede whoopups that out on the town the real cowboys are the ones in Massey Ferguson caps and running shoes. Believe me.

#133 WUL on 07.22.17 at 5:48 am

#87 mike from mtl on 07.21.17 at 9:58 pm

The psychosis for Tim’s is off the chart in Fort McMurray. The drive thru lanes are doubled. The backup of traffic out of the Tim’s lot onto Thickwood Blvd is a notable and newsworthy traffic hazard. I ain’t seen the like.

The servers are slowed by having to climb a step ladder to hand the double double into the cab of the raised 4X4.

#134 Howard on 07.22.17 at 7:05 am

#35 Check Your Reality on 07.21.17 at 7:27 pm
#18 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.21.17 at 6:46 pm
You dirty highschool drop out shills trying to pump the market. you don’t get it? The elite are crashing the market. You think they will allow you idiots without a high school diploma to buy 4-5 properties and get rich?
—–

Um, the ‘elites’ have been letting those high school drop out realtors achieve lifetime gains that you will never achieve for about 13 years in Vancouver so far. So ya, they will let them get their wealth, even if there is massive price correction, they will still be far ahead of the sideliners…

A 13 year bull run in places like Vancouver has outwitted, outlived, and outgunned all modes of analysis and critical thinking in real estate. Only realtors, the uneducated dopes lambasted on here, were right. Let that one sink in.

The above is undeniable…

———————————-

Single-digit IQ realtors will be the first to blow through all of their ill-gotten wealth as this correction takes hold. They are like rappers hitting it big and then crashing, all within the span os 5-10 years.

#135 SimplyPut7 on 07.22.17 at 7:45 am

#112 The Mayor of Milton on 07.21.17 at 11:21 pm

This is exactly how I feel about Milton and all the other cities outside of Toronto that were developed with no plans to be a city that can function without Toronto.

They designed the city to be a parking lot for people wanting to live in a cheap house and still commute to Toronto. No thought about how to create their own identity so if there was a recession the city could stand on their own two feet and not look for handouts from Toronto.

There are so many other towns further from Toronto, who have an identity, culture, entertainment, shops and jobs. Why didn’t the city councilors of the newer GTA cities think of visiting these towns to see how to survive without Toronto?

#136 Eric on 07.22.17 at 8:56 am

Prices are always kind of sticky on the way down. People are still greedy, and they only slowly drop the prices.

You have all of the people who make a living on the housing bubble. People who process mortgages, appraisals. Inspections. Home furnishings. All of those people who work on those dopey home improvement TV programs. Those people could find themselves out of work.

Then you have the people who are underwater. Those folks might hang on for a while, but eventually make the decision that their best bet is to default on the loan and walk away (I guess in Canada the loans are typically recourse, so people would really have to file for bankruptcy). These things take a while to work the way through the system.

I wouldn’t expect to see a bottom for a while.

#137 -=jwk=- on 07.22.17 at 8:58 am

I’m with smoking man, temporary blip and then full speed ahead in the fall. as long as CMHC is handing out money there will be no crash. Why would there be when money is free and easy to obtain?

Anyone who buys now will look very smart by christmas. This is the second opportunity to buy into the boom, the other was spring ’10 (or was it 09?).

bottom line: don’t miss this one!

#138 Just wondering on 07.22.17 at 9:03 am

For those about to flop…, how much time do you spend on your Pink Lemonade reports?

#139 Wrk.dover on 07.22.17 at 9:06 am

The worst feeling I can ever remember having, was being underwater on a car loan by about three months of payments shortly in to a two year new car loan at nineteen years old with out a cosigner.

It was even worse than when my wife and I owed a years income on the total of our loans and mortgage in our mid and late twenties, newly married.

Cowardly I guess, by today’s standards.

I hated paying down debt as much as I hated doing paid work for that purpose, rather than having unplanned days on end.

It all started when I worked to keep my first $100 car which was bought so I could get to work, while my friends partied and had no cars or jobs. Then I upgraded to that new car with payments, which I ultimately wore out working more and cruising in pointlessly on time off.

We broke the debt cycle in our mid and late thirties on relatively low incomes by being rural.

So, relative to that background story of wasted days, a million dollar mortgaged house and liened car in a big city is gratifying in what way now?

#140 Wrk.dover on 07.22.17 at 9:20 am

I keep the twenty I would have to break, drive home and drip a single cup of black coffee in the time it would take a cup of Tim’s from town to cool down. But I don’t have traffic, and intersections where I have to stop…again and again over and over every time I need to be somewhere.

Car brakes are for stopping when you get somewhere, not over and over all day long. How can you move along when you are constantly stopped?

Kind of like stopping your life to earn a payment over and over, isn’t it?

#141 Honest Realtor on 07.22.17 at 9:26 am

Did you catch this story?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/tasneemnashrulla/teens-laugh-as-man-drowns?utm_term=.yakPmE9meO#.nf6e4v549o

http://globalnews.ca/news/3614255/teens-film-laugh-man-drowns-florida-retention-pond/

People laughing and mocking someone drowning, who then died.

Psychopaths.

But isn’t that exactly the m.o of Happy Housing Crash Everyone! in this comments section?

He laughs and mocks honest home owners and realtors, hoping they will suffer, to the point of financial destruction or even suicide.

Vicious.

Hateful.

Garth, why do you allow this kind of psychopathy on this website?

Please delete this poster. He is of the same ilk as those Florida teens.

Truly appalling.

Sick comparison. Be ashamed. — Garth

#142 John Anderssen on 07.22.17 at 9:45 am

I completely agree with you that home prices in Toronto and elsewhere in Canada are ridiculously overvalued, and that they will eventually come down. However, your use of average sold prices is incorrect and, to be frank, deceptive. By using “mean” monthly sales prices, you will regularly be comparing apples to oranges.

If a used car dealer only sold one car per month, and in May that car was a 2016 Audi and in June it was a 2002 Toyota Corolla, the fact that the average price of the car that dealer sold fell dramatically says absolutely nothing about how car prices are changing.

You should be citing the Teranet numbers. While Teranet’s methodology is not flawless, it is much better than citing mean sales prices per month.

According to Teranet, the index levels of comparable Toronto home prices were:

Jun-16 193.15
Apr-17 232.38
May-17 240.71
Jun-17 249.66

Now, again, you are right…a 29% year-over-year increase in June is absurd, and completely indicative of an unsustainable bubble. However, I suggest you not do injustice to your good writing by using silly data.

Teranet is a useless gauge of anything. — Garth

#143 Old Ron the Realtor on 07.22.17 at 9:48 am

Luv this site. My old eyes have seen a few of these cycles, and while they share common themes, each plays out a little differently.

In the near term we may find the market “frozen” Buyers are on the sidelines, perhaps thankful that they got beat out in each of the dozen multiple offers situations they were involved with in the spring. While the Sellers are holding off listing their property waiting for a “bounce” A plateau in recent listings tends to support this notion.

This could go on for the balance of 2017, particularly if the Sellers can handle their mortgage payments. Buyers form the other side of this Mexican Standoff waiting for a clear signal that the market has bottomed.

The Real Estate Industry is going to go through some tough times. Currently almost 50,000 people are registered to sell real estate in the GTA. Sustaining that number requires well over 100,000 TREB sales a year, and we appear to be heading to significantly fewer annualized sales. To use a Biology term, the “carrying capacity” of this Eco system just crashed, and the result is an inevitable die off. You needed worry about them, they will go back to bar-tending, and selling cell phones at Kiosks in the Mall.

The trickle down will effect everyone from mortgage brokers, home stagers, card printers, real estate coaches, photographers, moving companies, and perhaps most significantly, the City of Toronto which reaps hundreds of millions in Land transfer tax annually, and the big five banks. And that is why I hate Booms, the pendulum always swings back.

#144 SW on 07.22.17 at 10:10 am

“The Flop is from Tasmania and is stubborn and relentless and will find out…”

Ah, let’s add persistence to your qualities*. Keep up the good work, but not at the expense of your life, wife or livelihood…

*Perviously demonstrated: humility, wit/humour, flexibility/resilience and stoicism.

#145 Ace Goodheart on 07.22.17 at 10:15 am

Surprisingly still a lot of great deals out there on Canadian rate reset preferred shares. I am still able to purchase bank stock preferreds for below par value, which is kind of odd considering that these things are going to reset higher on the reset dates which are ranging from 2019 to 2022.

How much higher is anyone’s guess, but when you are picking up Chartered Bank preferred shares for under par value, which are already paying 4-5% dividends and have dividend rate resets that are tied to Federal govt bond yields, you have to wonder why no one else is seeing what you are seeing.

At any rate, some really sweet deals still out there on the rate resets if people believe that we are in the process of a long, slow upward climb in interest rates.

#146 Ace Goodheart on 07.22.17 at 10:18 am

The next big money play could be the rate reset preferreds. I know people got rich on the bond markets when rates were falling. It appears to be now possible to get rich in the other direction, by buying up these rate resets and then riding up the value in dividends and par value.

#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.22.17 at 10:27 am

” I see debt people…..everywhere.”

#148 For those about to flop... on 07.22.17 at 10:27 am

#141 Honest Realtor on 07.22.17 at 9:26 am
Did you catch this story?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/tasneemnashrulla/teens-laugh-as-man-drowns?utm_term=.yakPmE9meO#.nf6e4v549o

http://globalnews.ca/news/3614255/teens-film-laugh-man-drowns-florida-retention-pond/

People laughing and mocking someone drowning, who then died.

Psychopaths.

But isn’t that exactly the m.o of Happy Housing Crash Everyone! in this comments section?

He laughs and mocks honest home owners and realtors, hoping they will suffer, to the point of financial destruction or even suicide.

Vicious.

Hateful.

Garth, why do you allow this kind of psychopathy on this website?

Please delete this poster. He is of the same ilk as those Florida teens.

Truly appalling.

Sick comparison. Be ashamed. — Garth

////////////////////////////////

Instead of writing that crap ,you should have just told me what happened to those two condos and asked me if there was any other addresses I was keen to show other people what was happening in the market with.

Or you only like being honest when it suits you…

M43BC

#149 Raging Ranter on 07.22.17 at 10:27 am

Shortymac, how does your LL feel you owe two months rent right now? Won’t that rent be paid monthly until you move out?

#150 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.22.17 at 10:30 am

@#141 Honest Realtor.

Well I guess Hell has frozen over OR your name is merely an attempt to lure in more rubes….errr sorry…..clients.

#151 Frank Blood on 07.22.17 at 10:38 am

Re: 141 Honest Realtor. No such thing.

#152 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.22.17 at 10:57 am

@#39 Steerage Stew
“Crappy donuts is right. Why people line up for 10 mins at Tims for mediocre fare is beyond me. Oddly when I mention this to people they take personal offence, as if I just said the Canadian flag looks silly (kinda does..).
++++++

You’re right on both counts.
Went to a small town in eastern Canada few months back. The Tim’s had a 10 minute lineup out the door and cars snaking down the street. Screaming kids, Crying babies, the works.
The McD’s? Empty parking lot, 10 people in the restaurant. No waits. Better coffee.
The fools that fight for service at Tim’s?
They’re lemmings….
As for the Canadian Flag?
When it was unveiled in 1965 one political wag asked “Did Molsons send in a failed beer label as its submission?”

#153 Matsebula on 07.22.17 at 11:01 am

Lots of people still talking Calgary. Bear in mind that they have a dipper government and that the vast majority of new employment offsetting job losses is government related in health, education, and administration.

Stripping out the dipper govt jobs, Alberta is in the same place it was, and arguably with a much less optimistic outlook for oil than before. This is a range bound market that has put even some bigger players in some trouble. Think Cenovus.

Calgary is going to drop too. The taste is too fancy and some of those houses, there is just no way they are worth what people are asking. Everyone in Alberta has heard stories of people being like 4 months behind on mortgage payments, and the bank hasn’t even sent a letter yet, because they don’t want to spook the horses. All these ‘investors’ with houses are trying to rent them but can’t because all the renters left.

Calgary will continue to exist, sure. But it will drop and drop meaningfully just like TO is.

#154 Victor V on 07.22.17 at 11:18 am

“We want to make sure that the market is healthy. We want to make sure people’s big investment – their housing investment – is safe and secure as best we can,” Morneau said in an interview with BNN.

http://www.bnn.ca/finance-minister-bill-morneau-vows-to-stay-closely-focused-on-housing-1.810599

#155 Mark on 07.22.17 at 11:32 am

“Teranet is a useless gauge of anything. — Garth”

Indeed. Their methodology is such that what they report lags literally years behind reality due to the nature of the algorithm they use. Effectively the data is low-pass filtered with severe lag. Teranet “data” is perhaps useful to academics 10-20 years in the future to study things, but absolutely and utterly useless to make month over month comparisons on a real-time basis. Unless you like living in the distant past, use Teranet “data” at your own peril.

#156 Mark on 07.22.17 at 11:35 am

“as long as CMHC is handing out money there will be no crash.”

CMHC’s balance sheet stopped expanding meaningfully with Budget 2013’s announcement that the $600B direct insurance cap would not be expanded. A policy maintained by the current government. Canadian housing prices peaked nationwide (Calgary a bit earlier!) and plateaued as a result.

As the losses start piling up at the CMHC, there probably will be government desire to shrink, not expand the CMHC.

#157 JimmyTwoTeeth on 07.22.17 at 11:53 am

http://www.macleans.ca/opinion/why-a-low-delinquency-rate-isnt-the-good-news-real-estate-story-you-think/

Explanation regarding current low delinquency rates. Solid read.

#158 Entrepreneur on 07.22.17 at 12:05 pm

So how is this mess of house prices suppose to help the middle class and small businesses? How are people able to grow, multiply and flourish? It doesn’t but a few will prosper and the ones on the side line look on once again.

I smell legal loopholes turned to greed manifested into a mass manipulation of the people. The very people who are the supporters of the middle class and small businesses. The people of the nation that live between borders.

And thank goodness the Greens/NDP are working on dealing with some of these loopholes which Liberal Christy Clark should have done from the start of her reign of 8 long years.

#159 Howard on 07.22.17 at 12:07 pm

Hard to be confident of a coming correction when dumps like this are still asking over $1 million: https://www.zolo.ca/toronto-real-estate/143-mintwood-drive

And if you look at the price history, it started out at $1.088M ask, and has since lowered it to $1.069M.

Yeah I’m sure that last $19K would be a deal-breaker.

#160 Contrarian Coyote on 07.22.17 at 12:08 pm

#143 Old Ron the Realtor on 07.22.17 at 9:48 am
Luv this site. My old eyes have seen a few of these cycles, and while they share common themes, each plays out a little differently.

In the near term we may find the market “frozen” Buyers are on the sidelines, perhaps thankful that they got beat out in each of the dozen multiple offers situations they were involved with in the spring. While the Sellers are holding off listing their property waiting for a “bounce” A plateau in recent listings tends to support this notion.

This could go on for the balance of 2017, particularly if the Sellers can handle their mortgage payments. Buyers form the other side of this Mexican Standoff waiting for a clear signal that the market has bottomed.

The Real Estate Industry is going to go through some tough times. Currently almost 50,000 people are registered to sell real estate in the GTA. Sustaining that number requires well over 100,000 TREB sales a year, and we appear to be heading to significantly fewer annualized sales. To use a Biology term, the “carrying capacity” of this Eco system just crashed, and the result is an inevitable die off. You needed worry about them, they will go back to bar-tending, and selling cell phones at Kiosks in the Mall.

The trickle down will effect everyone from mortgage brokers, home stagers, card printers, real estate coaches, photographers, moving companies, and perhaps most significantly, the City of Toronto which reaps hundreds of millions in Land transfer tax annually, and the big five banks. And that is why I hate Booms, the pendulum always swings back.

===

I see one of the realtors up here in the Kawarthas just posted a fair number of job postings. I’m guessing the slowdown has thinned the herd and the slow ones have been killed off by the market. Realtor probably has to make up for lost revenue as the weaker ones fade away. It certainly isn’t due to a stronger market – that ship has definitely sailed. Family in admin at the red, white, and blue RE says things are way slower as well and they haven’t seen some realtors in the office for weeks and months. Vacation: some yeah, but others are fading away into the sunset. Uh-oh.

It reminds me of that scene from the Matrix where Agent Smith tells Neo to listen the sound of the approaching train. “That Mr. Anderson, is the sound of inevitability.” (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIbEj1CIpuU)

#161 SimplyPut7 on 07.22.17 at 12:27 pm

#141 Honest Realtor on 07.22.17 at 9:26 am

How about you go read the comments from the speculators, mortgage brokers, realtors, amateur landlords and naive homeowners, who posted on this blog in the comment section for the past several years, and ask Garth to get rid of those people.

The ones that:
* blamed increasing home prices on Asian people
* blamed immigrants for taking all of the housing supply leaving nothing for the “real” Canadians
* gave bad financial advice and told everyone to put all their money into one asset, either: houses, oil or gold
* told everyone Bank of Canada rates will never rise
* bragged and laughed at renters and savers for not being heavily in debt to a bank/non-bank/private lender, who is now in a position to take advantage of homeowners, and charge any interest rate they want because homeowners do not qualify to go to a competitor for a lower mortgage rate
* lobbied hard to stop people from getting TREB sold reports so people could easily find out for themselves what home prices are going for, and stop listening to sleazy sales people pump their own housing areas on this site

Go read their comments and then compare to Happy Housing Crash Everyone and tell me who the psychopaths on this blog really are.

#162 Asterix1 on 07.22.17 at 12:35 pm

#32 Tony the Gino on 07.21.17 at 7:20 pm
Where do I get a house at 17% off? Everything I’m looking at gets relisted even higher. Where do I find this discounted priced home Garth? It’s extremely expensive out there even in Jane and finch.
———————————————

Go to Woodbridge or anything in Vaughan. Prices are going down fast there. Lots of deals. I recommend you wait 6 months for prices to go down even further in those areas.

#163 For those about to flop... on 07.22.17 at 12:50 pm

Well this one is going up because it’s not everyday you see a 30 million dollar price reduction.

I remember this one from when it first came on the market and might have even pointed it out as an example of Chinese money not being sucked in when this type of place would have been perfect if out in the open money washing was taking place.

Whilst some of the commercial deals have raised eyebrows,the residential deals , some involving HAM ,that I have seen going down have been tough negotiations and some have been well below asking which you could argue is expected with ridiculous asking prices.
(most of the houses I work on go for in the 5-15 million dollar price range)

Assessment comes in at 6.38 and the laughs are free…

M43BC

1238 Tecumseh Avenue, Vancouver.

Feb 9:$46,800,000
Jul 20: $15,000,000
Change: – 31800000.00 -68%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=1238%20Tecumseh%20Avenue,%20Vancouver&ptype_condo=1&ptype_house=1&filter=1

#164 simple person on 07.22.17 at 12:52 pm

Hi,

I read in this blog about the price adjustments in GTA, however when I check the realtor.ca website all the prices listed for the currently active listings are way higher than they were a year ago.

For ex a townhouse in mississauga that last year would have been close to 550k is now listed at 670k. both pricepoints are outrageous but it seems to be inching higher not lower.
Same goes for apartments in the same building last year the listing prices were north of 250k now listed at 370k or more.

Just trying to make sense of all this madness.
Thanks

#165 Howard on 07.22.17 at 12:53 pm

#141 Honest Realtor on 07.22.17 at 9:26 am
Did you catch this story?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/tasneemnashrulla/teens-laugh-as-man-drowns?utm_term=.yakPmE9meO#.nf6e4v549o

http://globalnews.ca/news/3614255/teens-film-laugh-man-drowns-florida-retention-pond/

People laughing and mocking someone drowning, who then died.

Psychopaths.

But isn’t that exactly the m.o of Happy Housing Crash Everyone! in this comments section?

He laughs and mocks honest home owners and realtors, hoping they will suffer, to the point of financial destruction or even suicide.

Vicious.

Hateful.

Garth, why do you allow this kind of psychopathy on this website?

Please delete this poster. He is of the same ilk as those Florida teens.

Truly appalling.

Sick comparison. Be ashamed. — Garth

————————————-

The fact that you think the two cases are even remotely comparable proves that Happy Housing Crash Everyone is correct regarding the lack of intelligence among your lot.

Better start practicing “would you like fries with that?” to tide you over during the coming correction.

#166 Howard on 07.22.17 at 12:58 pm

Two more thoughts:

1) Who knew realtors were such sensitive snowflakes? (#141 Honest Realtor crying over being mocked by the brilliant Happy Housing Crash Everyone)

2) What’s all this talk about doughnuts? Who cares? I don’t think I’ve consumed a doughnut in the past 10 years. Who are all these people going out to buy doughnuts every day?

#167 Sunk in. on 07.22.17 at 1:07 pm

#195 Check your reality.

This yesterday’s comment was so full of cold hard truth, it deserves repeating…

A 13 year bull run in places like Vancouver has outwitted, outlived, and outgunned all modes of analysis and critical thinking in real estate. Only realtors, the uneducated dopes lambasted on here, were right. Let that one sink in.

I remember in 2008, when renting in YVR, thinking that I would just buy after the crash. Of course that never happened, and I ended up buying in ’13 after some good financial years. I would have saved my self a lot of money by buying half a decade earlier. Oh well.
Disclosure: I am not a realtor.

Rear-view mirror investing is for losers. — Garth

#168 When the Whip Comes Down on 07.22.17 at 1:44 pm

#143 Old Ron – bottom line is no one knows what will actually happen. The price of real estate in certain Canadian markets over the last 13 yrs is a result of the non changing human pattern of behaviour coupled with spcific set of policy and economic environments. I am always concern d when those who have not lived through more than one cycle start to make calls in what going to happen be they realtors, neophyte economists or average Sheeple. Thanks for your post. This is a heavy pendulum and it’s got a long way back to go but the writing is in the wall. Tides are changing.

#169 Canadian Expat Watching from Abu Dhabi on 07.22.17 at 1:59 pm

All of the real estate agents I know were drug dealers in high school.

#170 For those about to flop... on 07.22.17 at 2:04 pm

Pink Lemonade stand in Burnaby.

The market has spoken to these guys when they were trying to get over 2 million for a 59 build.

Like a lot of my cases they have succumbed and lowered their price down to cost plus closing expenses and are hoping to walk away without being pointed at whilst shopping at Metrotown with the indignity of losing money in real estate in Greater Vancouver.

Partially renovated but this correction will have their full attention.

Assessed at 1.69 it seems likely they will have to have another Chutter about what to do to get this thing sold…

M43BC

7460 Chutter Street, Burnaby

May 28:$2,080,000
Jul 21: $1,899,000
Change: – 181000.00 -9%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=7460%20Chutter%20Street,%20Burnaby&ptype_condo=1&ptype_house=1&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzVzBSWA==

#171 For those about to flop... on 07.22.17 at 2:32 pm

Pink Lemonade stand in Delta.

Not real sure what the deal is with this one but up she goes regardless.

Zolo has a different price ,reduced but not the same amount as indicated but occasionally there is a mix up and a delay.

They paid 930 and this is the type of house with a healthy assessment that should not have any trouble selling.

They seem to have itchy fingers with 3 possible changes in listing price in less than 3 weeks.

Can you say motivated…

M43BC

7664 Garrett Drive, Delta

Jul 5:$1,190,000
Jul 20: $990,000
Change: – 200000.00 -17%

https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/7664-garrett-drive

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1VkQ3Ng==

#172 AACI Home-Dog on 07.22.17 at 3:05 pm

http://www.vancouversun.com/massive+effort+underway+create+database+that+will+shed+light+canada+housing/13765170/story.html

new database planned to track level of foreign buying in Canadian real estate market…

#173 rainclouds on 07.22.17 at 4:45 pm

#172 home Dawg

Interesting link, it would appear the gubmt doesn’t trust RE generated data either…….maybe Wild Bill is listening.

Of course the Feds and Database integration are not exactly running like a well oiled machine.The Conservatives I’ll fated ham fisted Phoenix debacle still festering ……….could be decades b4 we see anything.

#174 Tony on 07.22.17 at 5:35 pm

Re: #172 AACI Home-Dog on 07.22.17 at 3:05 pm

The big problem is every new home sales site has a “sold out” sign the very first minute anything goes up for sale. Not to mention everything new costs double what an American pays and in the Vancouver and Toronto area virtually no one can afford a new house and even if they could there’s none to buy because one person always buys out the entire new home sales sites’ new listings the instant anything is for sale.

#175 An Old Bird on 07.22.17 at 6:42 pm

Flop…

Your two items on Hollybridge sold at the new listing prices of $578,000 and $569,000 within about three days after having been terminated at $689,000 earlier in the year…so your percentages hold.

#176 45north on 07.22.17 at 7:47 pm

Sasamat Sourdough: What Garth says makes sense but BC sure hasn’t followed the path of the GTA so far.

the GTA moves faster because it’s bigger

Capt. Serious: Where I live in Ottawa houses are still selling briskly.

Ottawa is the most stable housing market in the country

the Bank of Canada isn’t setting rate policy in a vacuum. As long as the US Fed keeps ratcheting up, up she goes in Canada as well. You’re kidding yourself if you think Poloz can plot some kind of other course.

yep

jane24: Well Garth I always thought that your long held view of an initial 10% drop in RE prices and then a soft float lower over a few years did not take into account our instant web based world of today. I

it’s a hard crash. Nothing floaty about it.

#177 maxx on 07.22.17 at 8:12 pm

#141 Honest Realtor on 07.22.17 at 9:26 am

Not sure how to spell the sound of a loud snicker making its way up my nose at high speed. (reverse snore?)

Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#178 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.22.17 at 10:27 pm

crappy donuts
——————————-
Is all we’re left with, that’s for sure. Now that Dunkin Donuts, Beigne Bec, et al are mostly gone. Krispy Kreme are very good but there aren’t many of them.
If you’re in Kingston, go to Coffee Way. They’re the best in Canada.

#179 Paolo on 07.23.17 at 12:22 pm

Hot Property. Al Sinclair.
Boy does he look angry. Now he is blaming the 3 levels of gov’t for messing things and high inventory.
However he says it will turn around in September.
So according to Al in 5 weeks everything will go back to ‘normal’
LOL!

#180 AguyInVancouver on 07.23.17 at 3:49 pm

#79 Ronaldo on 07.21.17 at 9:26 pm
#4 AGuyInVancouver on 07.21.17 at 6:15 pm

Here’s some pink pollen for Those About to Flop
3365 Quebec St Vancouver listed June $3.298 mil
removed and relisted mid-July $2.98 mil
————————————————————-
July 1st Assessment – 2.257 mil.
Previous year – 1.513 mil.

But it was purchased for 1.358 May 13/15. Hardly pink pollen at 2.98 mil.

Even if they spent a couple hundred thousand on a reno, this thing has a long way to drop yet even from its latest assessment in 2016. Crazy stuff happening in that area with realtors.
__________________

Except Ronaldo, they are two different houses. The $1.3 million sale was a Depression era bungalow, the $3.3 million was a new spec build!

A classic study in how spec building drives up home prices.