The implosion

Some months ago the fancy, trophy wife-owning, Porsche-driving, gay sock-wearing, omniscient portfolio manager dudes I work with (who are allowed to blog here occasionally, just to keep them real) had a message.

“We want to scale back on our US weighting,” they said. “Trump scares us.”

“But,” I said, waving the Amazons away from oiling my chiseled torso for a few moments, “the deplorables hanging out at GreaterFool love him. How can he be scary?”

“Risk,” they said. “We’re increasingly disconstructive on the realistic potential for his pro-growth, inflationary and GDP-enhancing expansionist fiscal agenda to actually be effected.”

“So, he’s screwing up?”

“Affirmative.”

And they disappeared back into their trading mosh pit, gold cufflinks glinting in the shards of light piercing the bank tower windows. The Amazons returned to peel grapes and buff toes.

So, exposure to American assets in our model portfolio was trimmed a few points, weighting to Europe was bumped up a little (“valuations are very tasty,” said Ryan) as was the ownership of maple (“relative strength analysis,” said Doug, “indicates a breakout.”). Of course this is not all about Trump, but he looms increasingly large in the minds of portfolio managers everywhere. In fact there’s a growing cadre of PMs who have recently reduced their US exposure to zero.

The reason is simple. After the 2016 election that shocked markets, stuffing Washington with Republicans and thrusting the unelectable billionaire into office, it looked like US public policy would turn on a dime. Trump was seen immediately as the Inflation President, goosing public spending, launching giant infrastructure projects, slashing corporate taxes, slicing through regulation and adopting an expensive, cost-goosing protectionist agenda of America-first. That looked bullish for corporations and profits, so markets rallied to record highs. Valuations went soaring. Investors rocked. And now markets are worth about 20% more than they should be.

Meanwhile, the president has choked – at least as far as many investors see it. No major legislation has passed. Even repealing and replacing Obamacare has proven impossible for a leader who can’t build coalitions. No budget has been enacted. No tax reform bill even drafted, let alone passed. No new bridges or airports built. And Trump has irritated key allies by walking out of the Paris Accord, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and, maybe, NAFTA.

All that is making people wonder if the post-election Trump rally was fueled by expectation and may be dashed by news.

In the past few days, concerns have swelled. The investigation into the relationship between Russia and the Presidential campaign has widened to include Trump’s past business dealings with oligarchs and Russian corporations. His family members will be probed over allegations they embraced shady Ruskies claiming to have dirt on Hillary. The president fired the FBI director investigating him. He just dissed his Attorney-General who refused to stop the Russia probe. And speculation is mounting he may ape Richard Nixon’s suicidal moves and fire the special counsel leading the Congressional inquiry.

“I think,” says Ryan, “there’s now a 50-50 chance he doesn’t finish his term. So, how good is it that we’ve sold off our American small-cap position, and reduced our US weighing by 5%?”

Does this cautious stance mean everybody should run screaming for the exits? Are those professional traders who have opted for a 0% US weighting the smart ones? If Trump blows up, will be take the S&P with him?

Nope. Of course not. Donald Trump is not the USA. He does not run the economy. The data points coming out of America are solid and strong. Corporate profits have been robust and rebounding, with significant future growth forecast. Job creation has been on a multi-year marathon, with most economists now proclaiming the country has full employment. Expansion has been sufficient to withstand three interest rate hikes in the past seven months. The real estate market is stable and expanding. Consumer confidence is near record levels.

Of course (like in Canada) debt is vast and the wealth gap is growing fast. Trump was elected for a reason, and his base remains steadfast.  Should the Donald implode and America polarize, the political and social damage could be as monumental as the man’s ego. But having no exposure to the US in your portfolio? Naaah. Bad idea.

In conclusion: weird times ahead. Be balanced and diversified. Stay invested. Don’t be extreme. Avoid deplorables. They’re gonna be ripe.

205 comments ↓

#1 HoweStreet.com on 07.20.17 at 6:40 pm

Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
Unrealistic Canadian Real Estate Projections.
Bank of Canada ignoring its own real estate research.

http://www.howestreet.com/2017/07/17/unrealistic-canadian-real-estate-projections/

Robert Campbell on HoweStreet.com Radio:
Canada Set for Horrible Real Estate Crash?
US housing still has room to go up.

http://www.howestreet.com/2017/07/18/canada-set-for-horrible-real-estate-crash/

#2 Miller Time on 07.20.17 at 6:43 pm

Probably best to stay away from the comments section today…

#3 nick on 07.20.17 at 6:47 pm

Im interested in seeing what the fed does the rest of this year. I dont think the US public can withstand further rate hikes. The “economy” is good on paper but debt/wealth gap/incomes are not much better if not worse than prior to 2008. The average person has not seen an improvement, and thats why they voted for Trump.

If this is the highest the US can go when it comes to rates, its a very bad sign. Plus the fed said they will unload their balance sheet soon, which is going to push rates upwards as well, but although they said they will, im skeptical.

IMO more realistically we see QE start up again, or rates go down crushing the dollar.

#4 Tony the Gino on 07.20.17 at 6:47 pm

So ya houses in Woodbridge are still super duper expensive.

#5 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 07.20.17 at 6:47 pm

The other day, Garth (who hates Screwed Canadian Millenials) deleted my comment for simply remarking that it’s funny how so many of the boomers who apparently hate gubmint happen to work for the gubmint, and make those sweet sweet salaries and pensions off of gubmint.

You flatter yourself. That was not the reason. — Garth

#6 Garth is my enabler on 07.20.17 at 6:49 pm

Little bit off topic but related to crash in housing and other segments of our economy.

This is for Mark because I read his posts. they make sense. Although Garth is by far most entertaining

On the other hand every time I read Smoking Man post I have to lay down to recuperate myself by looking at one dot on ceiling.

Anyhow, Mark regarding perfect storm hitting Canada from all sides, and IT industry is about to be big victim too. I did little bit of research and found out few interesting facts:

1. Trump effect in US is making waves and it appear all of sudden that GTA area is awash with IT resources from US. Recruiter friend told me that there are huge number of young IT talent ( non Caucasian ) available here and they are willing to work for almost half of rest of us here.( until they settle and realize cost of living.)
This behavior in retail is reason for Anti Dumping Law. We should have that for labor and IT.

2. Technology is almost there. Big banks and other firms are insanely working to get it so that they can start firing all those armies of Operations staff. Cloud will enable several people to do what 20-30 where doing.
goodbye servers and hardware…upgrades, licenses etc…

3. Almost all hiring agencies are owned by Off Shore mega companies which provide IT services.
They lobby our government to open door to more IT resources working visas. Every time Canadian send resume they shred it and complain that there are no local talent. Insane! If it continue like this we may as well close all university programs for computer science.
Tata from India use to be big in this, but lately Chinese are moving by hundreds, and are twice more powerful that India. They take whole cycle. I know I worked on it. We ship Documentation they deliver in 3-4 day pieces of the code .They even test them. We have no idea how many people work over there 10 or 200. But they deliver. Only one or two guys are here in Toronto.
If we continue to this way there will be no local IT anymore…We all gona sell each other coffee all day
Except maybe in Government since they are running technologies from 2 centuries ago. LOL.

Mark thanks for your input. you made me do research.

This is the best:
OnlyTheBankersLaugh :
Unbelievable. Government workers accumulating over $1M before 35 while doctors getting pounded…

#7 Shawn on 07.20.17 at 6:54 pm

US small caps hit ATHs today (IWM, IJR, VXF). The TSX is down YTD. Europe is losing momentum. EMs are doing well. The Nasdaq is up solid double digits YTD and leading – remember how tech underperformed post election?

Trump has inadvertently kept investors out of the US who would otherwise be invested. The US is the contrarian trade. Overweight US equities.

#8 Shawn on 07.20.17 at 6:56 pm

Overweight USD also – it’s significantly oversold.

#9 smartalox on 07.20.17 at 6:56 pm

Hunter S. Thompson said it best:

“When the going gets weird, the weird turn Pro”

Re-focus on the fundamentals, the first principles. The American economy runs on Oil and credit. Credit may slowly be tightening, but I was in St. Louis, Missouri in early June, and gas prices were hovering around $1.20 a GALLON (30 cents a litre). I couldn’t believe it.

Now that Trumpcare is dead on arrival, risk of repeal is fading. Employers’ health-care benefit costs will continue to be offloaded directly onto taxpayers, freeing up cash for fresh investment, and at higher rates.

#10 Tony the Gino on 07.20.17 at 7:01 pm

House on algonquin drive in aurora is priced for a bidding war at 699k expect 900-1 million. So much for bubble bursting. My realtor doesn’t think I should offer asking price based on May comparable. Oh well. Prices are up up up again.

#11 bdwy sktrn on 07.20.17 at 7:02 pm

#164 choptstix on 07.20.17 at 6:01 pm
East Vancouver Condo Buyers Spent 48% More Than Last Year
By Steve Saretsky – July 19, 2017
Demand For the East Side Explodes As Buyers Get Priced Out of the West

……………….
#168 smartalox on 07.20.17 at 6:36 pm
@Chopstix #164:

The surge of ‘East Side’ referred to in the link that you posted mirrors the shift in demand for East side detached properties five years ago. It also brings to mind the quote attributed to Karl Marx, about how history repeats itself:

———————–
well then condos are going to stay very, very expensive.

just sold , grandview, east van (lakeview dr)

2yr old detached on a 25′ lot

built 24 month ago
sold summer 2015 1.4m
sold today 1.95m (ask1.99)

old beater across the street ask 1.6, sell 1.63

this is what is happening TODAY. prices as high as ever.

but as this blog probably had not yet started in 2015, he had nobody to warn him!

#12 waiting on the westcoast on 07.20.17 at 7:03 pm

Great article on government waste… Hey, the guy didn’t build to code but even if he did, it would have been orders of magnitude cheaper…

http://www.opposingviews.com/i/world/toronto-man-builds-park-stairs-550-irking-city-after-65000-estimate

#13 Basil Fawlty on 07.20.17 at 7:04 pm

Full employment with 104M people not working and the worst labour participation rate in 40 years? Record consumer confidence with real wages at 1970’s levels? Withstanding 3 interest rate hikes? Hello, are they up to 1% yet?

#14 Tony the Gino on 07.20.17 at 7:06 pm

Can’t afford anything in GTA or further out. Why all these articles on buyers market. Sure doesn’t feel like it. Sad! Bad! Mad!
Garth let’s talk about other things going forward. Buyers market is fake news.

#15 AK on 07.20.17 at 7:08 pm

““I think,” says Ryan, “there’s now a 50-50 chance he doesn’t finish his term. ”
——————————————————————–
I will take this bet. President Trump will be there 8 years in total.

#16 Keith on 07.20.17 at 7:09 pm

My wife works for this company. They are begging for IT people. They are called Vision 33, a division of the Zed group. Yes, it sounds like a Seinfeld episode, but it’s real. Based in Newfoundland. I’m not kidding. Offices and jobs all over the world. $1000 finders fee for referring a hire. Tell your IT friends.

https://www.vision33.com/company/careers

#17 Shawn on 07.20.17 at 7:14 pm

PS, here are some wild price changes for some recognizable Ontario cities:

All data from Zolo.ca

Richmond Hill

-5.6% Monthly change
-26.9% Quarterly change
-9.1% Yearly change

Markham

-1.1% Monthly change
-20.2% Quarterly change
+0.1% Yearly change

Brampton

– 5.5% Monthly change
-15.4% Quarterly change
+9.5% Yearly change

Toronto

-5.3% Monthly change
-14.2% Quarterly change
+12.4% Yearly change

Price changes of this nature are often associated with downtrends.

#18 waiting on the westcoast on 07.20.17 at 7:14 pm

#6 Garth is my enabler on 07.20.17 at 6:49 pm

Hey Mark isn’t always wrong… Just 90% is the time so I get you falling for it must have poor judgement… ;-)

1. Assuming your recruiter friend is accurate, please send the immigrants to Vancouver where everyone is desperately seeking skilled IT infrastructure / software employees. They may work for peanuts foe one year but will quickly up their expectations and fit right in.

2. Yes, you are correct here. Employees need to continually adapt to be relevant. It’s almost like they need to become entrepreneurs… ;-)

3. Three might be some lobbying going on but it is more due to the fact that we cannot find people with the skills here. If the market is so loose (or the recruiters are conspiring globally to screw Canada’s tech industry), why do so many high tech companies advertise for positions that are not getting filled.

There is no Boogeyman but there sure are a lot of Canadians who only want to work hard enough in school to be a barista…

#19 the Jaguar on 07.20.17 at 7:21 pm

The Jag has ten bucks to bet that at least one of the occupants of the mosh pit has a tennis racket in the pit that he swings about on conference or other calls , using terms like ‘old sport’, all the while gazing out the corner office window and feeling incredibly pleased with himself. Feet up on the desk to display the multi-coloured ” I am a hep cat” socks. I think they are both very sweet, but the Jag could never worship at the feet of anyone who did not realize a Porsche is just a trophy car. Less is more, in a refined kind of way. That sweet little Audi A3 Sportback Etron (in Black, of course) is an object to be desired . A discreet, elegant, low profile/quality vehicle. Sometimes less is more.

As for Trump’s current misfortunes, buckle up because the Canadians are about to make him look good while at the same time delivering for Mother Canada. How will we do this you might ask? By employing our secret weapon -‘ our niceness’. More powerful than a speeding locomotive, and undetectable in a world of chest pumping, egotistical nations, the Canadians will secure a fair and advantageous trade amendment to NAFTA. We have real talent in this great country of ours…(where the hell is Nigel Wright these days, anyway?). Trump can tweet all he wants and the US media will only be interested in what worked to their advantage (what else is new?), but the planets are aligning. We enter a new age. Trump may get shown the door yet, but not just yet. They don’t have him by the gonads yet, and like Putin said….”The public face is not the private face”. Or something like that. He is just playing to the deplorables. Besides, I sense a huge and catastrophic scandal on the horizon for those plotting his demise. Fear not deplorables, reinforcements are on the way.

#20 AB Boxster on 07.20.17 at 7:23 pm

Your guys are good at technical analysis.

But TA only goes so far.

Markets and most economies are driven by fear and greed, sentiment and rumour.

Canada’s governments and peoples are broke.
High priced real estate and personal debt and now increases in rates are a huge problem.

The Liberals of Canada, Ontario, and the NDP in Alberta and now BC have scared business investment away due to provincial debts, inept energy policy, and punative climate taxes.

Verdict-Canada is a seriously crappy place to invest right now.

Invest in the US or Europe, but stay away from Canada until governments change and real estate has finished its crash.

The US is the only real country with any growth prospects.
Trump or not.

#21 Shawn on 07.20.17 at 7:24 pm

Back to US equities.

The current situation is similar to just prior to the election. The consensus was that the US market would crash if Trump were elected. Ironically, the current consensus is that the market will crash or do poorly if he is impeached.

What if Trump is impeached and the S&P 500 & USD both rally 10%?

Just imagine…

#22 Vancouvergonewild on 07.20.17 at 7:25 pm

Long time lurker and market student…always informative Gart-thank you.
Rates have only risen 0.25%, not enough to affect the budget of most. IMO, the rate hike is more psychological and has started many thinking ‘this could be the beginning of change’. The rate hike (more to come?) and other new ideas from the gov’t and banks could be the pin that pricks the confidence bubble which I believe has a large part to do with the market. Once the flippers and specs decide to slow down or stop there could be a sea change of R/E activity accelerating that whic is already happening. I’m in the Vancouver burbs and things are still going gang busters-can’t see any indication of a slowdown, especially with condos and townhouses. Maybe there is alag btween what’s happening in Ontaairio and what’s to come on the West coast.

#23 MF on 07.20.17 at 7:26 pm

#300 Lee on 07.19.17 at 3:55 pm

“Every provincial government pension is structured that way, at a minimum. I can assure you I know lots of people in this position from police to normal government workers. Retiring at 53/54 with a full pension is normal in government, unless you start working later (like teachers), in which case just add 35 to the start date and that is the retirement date for a full pension. I do this calculation regularly. If you start at 25, retirement with full pension is at 60. Full pension is 70% of the average of the best five years (not including overtime).”

-First off, we want our police officers, fire fighters, teachers etc. to be paid well. They put their lives on the line for the population and perform essential services. That’s what allows us to attract high quality people in those positions. Look at countries like Mexico where police officers are paid low wages. They are all open to bribes and corruption.

Personally I think those people are UNDERpaid.

Why don’t you become a police officer instead of whining about “overpaid government workers”?

MF

#24 Shawn on 07.20.17 at 7:28 pm

Investors must understand that no one knows why markets rally or why they don’t rally. Price is the only truth. The current truth is that US small caps posted new ATHs today.

#25 Ex-Cowtown on 07.20.17 at 7:30 pm

So Trump is allegedly being investigated. I say allegedly because the leak came from an anonymous source to Bloomberg. So far all anonymous leaks to leftist papers have proven false. So, statistically, it is highly likely that this one is false as well.

Wouldn’t surprise me that Mueller does come out with some recommendations for indictment. Against the Clintons and the Obama-ites.

All Trump is clearly demonstrating is how dysfunctional the US government became under Clinton, Bush and Obama. Sad. Very Sad. Bigly Sad.

Time for a cup of Covfefe.

#26 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.20.17 at 7:30 pm

The Donald is safe until the mid terms in 2018. If the Dems don’t take the House or Senate in 2018 the Donald will make it to 2020. If the Dems don’t stop pissing and moaning and find a candidate and a platform that people can relate to The Donald may make it to 2024. I bet u a bag of mice the real estate market takes off again in the fall. People will see through all the scare tactics and the puny rate cuts and carry on.

#27 Leo Trollstoy on 07.20.17 at 7:34 pm

Go into tech!

Fight for tech talent increasing rents!

http://www.worldpropertyjournal.com/real-estate-news/united-states/san-francisco-real-estate-news/scoring-tech-talent-report-2017-cbre-high-tech-cities-10474.php

#28 White Crock BC on 07.20.17 at 7:35 pm

I’m sensing that I’m going to see the word “DELETED” many times today…

#29 Evan on 07.20.17 at 7:36 pm

I’m currently invested in deep value stocks in a number of first world countries.

http://www.netnethunter.com/hunter-fund

In general I think that investing based on macro factors is VERY difficult and investors who do so are making investing much harder than it has to be. I think that if you just maintain a well diversified portfolio of conservatively financed and dirt cheap value stocks you will do well long term relative to the market.

Investing internationally is also a great alternative to investing in overvalued US (or Canadian) markets… and there are a few moderately priced (or cheap!) first world markets out there with great investment opportunities.

Investing in today’s high flying growth stocks is akin to the death-by-coming-housing-correction that Garth talks about. Overpaying for ANYTHING is a bad idea but overpaying for stocks is sure to destroy your life savings the longer you keep doing it. That’s why I prefer to only buy stocks that are deeply undervalued.

https://www.brokenleginvesting.com/what-is-deep-value-investing/

Combining cheap markets with cheap stocks is a solid way to ride out whatever may be coming at some point in the future.

Evan

#30 CP24 on 07.20.17 at 7:38 pm

watching CP24 and cry baby Shyster Sinclair crying how people are walking away from deals. Someone asked if they can walk from a Deal as they bought a new house but can’t sell their old house and they were asking if they can just walk away. Al was looking so mad and screaming that it’s a contract and they will get sued. he started to cry about a chain reaction of sales that fall through now due to walk aways. He looked so mad as nothing is selling. This housing crash is coming down hard. Oh yeah shyster Al was “concerned” about the land transfer tax that the city will be losing thanks to federal and provincial rules. Realtors are literally screaming in horrible financial pain. Happy Housing Crash Everyone Everyone! :-)

#31 Deplorable Dude on 07.20.17 at 7:38 pm

Well you’ve encompassed a lot of fake news there Garth to be basing your client investment decisions on…

Firing the FBI director who was investigating him? Wrong….Comey confirmed under oath 3 times he wasn’t investigating Trump.

Widening investigation into Trump businesses….? Fake news unless you hear it direct from Special Council Mueller. This came from yet another anonymous source.

Trump Jr Getting dirt on Clinton…so what? Not illegal.

Impeachment? Never gonna happen, not unless all the Republican Senators want to lose their jobs come election time.

He’s been in 6 months. The key to all his policies is getting the Health repeal done. If the Republicans don’t do that they will be toast anyway. They would have been lying to their electorate for the past 7 years.

He’s got at least another 3.5 years to get his policies in place. The mid terms will send a message to the GOP.

#32 OttawaMike on 07.20.17 at 7:43 pm

@waiting on the westcoast
Those stairs in the picture are the joke. Seriously? A lawsuit waiting.

Govt. procurement regulations tie municipality’s hands so that nothing can be done without low bid consultants and low bid contractors. The assumption that every govt employee will steal if we allow them to vet contractors leads to $65k stairs after the city hires the low bidder and pays to do it twice.
But hey, the taxpayer got the lowest bid!

#33 Capt. Serious on 07.20.17 at 7:44 pm

In the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine weighing earnings. It’s the closest thing to gravity you’ll find in the world of finance. I’m still not overly optimistic about returns for the next 20 years given our starting point, but I’ll be happily surprised and retire early if things go well.

#34 AK on 07.20.17 at 7:45 pm

#21 Shawn on 07.20.17 at 7:24 pm
“Back to US equities.
The current situation is similar to just prior to the election. The consensus was that the US market would crash if Trump were elected.”
——————————————————————–
Well, It did crash. It lasted for a grand total of 3 hours.

The futures were down around 800 points.

#35 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.20.17 at 7:46 pm

Tony the gino #14

The only fake news is from shysters like you. Your shysters buddy Al was kicking and screaming on CP24. Usually he has a smug look like he is the smartest high school drop out in the world. He looked so mad today. He has been looking less smug as the weeks go by but this week he looked pissed. People/speculators are not closing and sales are gone. He is now clinging on the hope September will some how be good but offered no reason other then hope. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#36 Linda on 07.20.17 at 7:51 pm

I can see that the USA has some currently good stats on jobs etc., but Trump is president. How much actual power does he have to negatively affect things? I know a president can veto a bill that the Senate/Congress has approved, but can a president enact legislation without the consent of the Senate/Congress? Could Trump for instance unilaterally pull out of NAFTA even if the majority of the Senate/Congress is for staying in NAFTA?

As for Ryan’s odds on Trump finishing his term, I’d say there is indeed an even chance he won’t. A picture says a thousand words & the photo of Trump sitting by himself while in the background world leaders were conversing (& presumably hammering out agreements) is a sad commentary. Up until now, the leaders were lined up out the door waiting their turn to talk to the POTUS. Staged or not, that photo tells me that most of the world has decided to work around the current POTUS – how detrimental this may eventually be to the US economy will be interesting to see.

#37 Tony the Gino on 07.20.17 at 7:52 pm

#35
I’m on your side bud. Just saying prices keep going higher in Vaughan and surrounding suburbs. So just saying let’s slow down this crash talk until a house actually costs what it did in 2013. Otherwise just blowing smoke when a townhouse still costs 1 million in suburbia. Al is a DB I agree but he had been right for a decade.

#38 AK on 07.20.17 at 7:53 pm

#25 Ex-Cowtown on 07.20.17 at 7:30 pm
“So Trump is allegedly being investigated.”
——————————————————————-
With every news story, the Democrats are given some ammunition and they end up shooting themselves in the foot with it.
When the opposition leadership consists of Schumer, Pellosi and Maxine Waters, It’s doubtful that President trump will get impeached.

#39 Ronaldo on 07.20.17 at 7:54 pm

#12 waiting on the westcoast on 07.20.17 at 7:03 pm

Great article on government waste… Hey, the guy didn’t build to code but even if he did, it would have been orders of magnitude cheaper…

http://www.opposingviews.com/i/world/toronto-man-builds-park-stairs-550-irking-city-after-65000-estimate
————————————————————–
And that is the reason that many government organizations are turning to “contracting out”. Cheaper, and the job gets done quicker. Contractors are in the business of turning a profit and don’t have a bottomless pit of money like the government seems to have. Much more needs to be done in this area.

#40 -=jwk=- on 07.20.17 at 7:55 pm

@#13
““I think,” says Ryan, “there’s now a 50-50 chance he doesn’t finish his term. ”
——————————————————————–
I will take this bet. President Trump will be there 8 years in total.
———————————————–

False. If anyone can remove the two term limit it is him. Otherwise Jared is in for 8. So 16, minimum, for the clan.

#41 SimplyPut7 on 07.20.17 at 8:02 pm

#4 Tony the Gino on 07.20.17 at 6:47 pm

Woodbridge is expensive. Even a decade ago, it wasn’t a cheap area in comparison to areas in Toronto close to transit and/or with better amenities.

But if you check the TREB sold reports, prices have stalled and less homes are selling. If rates do continue to go up, you will get a better deal for a home later rather than rushing to buy a home now.

For now, go look at the sold homes site below and move across the map to go to your target area: uncheck the semi-detached tab and move the other scales to get your preferred price range, number of bedrooms and bathrooms, and sold date range.

If you know the MLS number for homes that have listed in the past, use the MLS search at the top of the left section, it works for homes older than 365 days. You can find out if a listing really did sell or if the home was taken off the market to be relisted at a later date.

http://watch.ohmyhome.ca/#/HouseSold

#42 Michael King on 07.20.17 at 8:08 pm

It’s definitely wise to keep a cautious eye on the US. This is an excellent article describing the bubbles blowing down south.

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2017/07/i-read-the-news-today-oh-boy/

#43 TCContrarian on 07.20.17 at 8:11 pm

In conclusion: weird times ahead. Be balanced and diversified. Stay invested. Don’t be extreme. -GT
—————————————————————–
weird times ahead – sure, the last few years weren’t ‘weird’ enough for you?
– Houses costing 10x gross incomes,
– General markets (US) in an 8-year bull market
– Interest rates below inflation (ZIRP)
– Amateur ‘landlords’ basking in the glory of their ‘genius’ (they’ve confused a bull market for brains!)

I think ‘normalization’ in order – the weirdness has already occurred!

TCC

#44 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 07.20.17 at 8:12 pm

Okanagan real estate update:

June ranked in at the 9th best month ever for sales in the Okanagan (645 units vs. 888 units in 2016). Five of the best months ever took place in 2016, 2 so far in 2017, and 2 in 2007.

While sales volume is down from last year, average pricing for residential is up 14.7%, condo +17.6%, townhouse +17.5% and the average days to sell a home was 43.6 days shorter than last June.

Possible factors contributing to the reduced sales volume may be flooding/fires, pricing/affordability, and the lack of inventory.

#45 Tony the Gino on 07.20.17 at 8:14 pm

#41. Jane and finch is still expensive too. It’s not just Woodbridge. Everywhere is. Even Cambridge.

#46 Walton McClure on 07.20.17 at 8:15 pm

I’ll bet on Trump and American success any day over Canadian Real Estate.

So far stocks are higher under him than they were under the failed administration before him.

#47 Walton McClure on 07.20.17 at 8:16 pm

Also, investing in Europe? No thanks. Although perhaps Greece is on the verge of a magical comeback!

#48 Emma Zaun - Greater Fool Unpaid Intern #007 on 07.20.17 at 8:16 pm

“…waving the Amazons away from oiling my chiseled torso for a few moments”

“The Amazons returned to peel grapes and buff toes.”

Gosh, Garth, it almost sounds like you appreciate our (unpaid) work! What a novel thing that would be.

We’ll be sure to bring this up as part of our upcoming grievance.

It won’t just be your torso that looks chiseled…..

…….your wallet will too.

In Solidarity,

Emma Zaun
Chief Steward
CUPE
(Canadian Union of Peelers and Exhibitionists)

#49 Lee on 07.20.17 at 8:19 pm

#23 MF,

Somebody asked which government jobs pay 70% pensions so I told them. How is that a slight on cops? And who said I think it’s a great job? It’s the last job I would want. And they don’t deserve more than they get. They get plenty.

#50 Welcome to Slurrey on 07.20.17 at 8:19 pm

Is it really cheaper to rent ? Rents are ridiculous right now in yvr……

#51 will on 07.20.17 at 8:20 pm

I thought the reason to lighten up on US securities was because CAD is rising.

#52 VI Deplorable on 07.20.17 at 8:30 pm

#44 FOUR FINGERS WATSON

Just like the Okanagan, rutting season is in full swing over here on the Island still. My bet continues that outlying spots like Campbell River to Duncan and Victoria and Surrounds continue to be on heat for time to come as horny lottery winners from the Lower Mainland cash out.

#53 YVR RE Pumpers on 07.20.17 at 8:35 pm

Go here:

http://www.myrealtycheck.ca/

The down pointing red arrows outnumber the up pointing blue arrows by more than 2:1 and have for quite some time now.

Average price changes in $ are all negative.

The average price change by month line chart is all negative and has been since Oct. 2016 and it looks like July 2017 will be negative as well.

All that you have now is a dead cat bounce because of expected rate increases & OSFI – fools.

The great big FOMO RE ship sailed out of English Bay Oct. 2016 (the money, 42% of it, gone):

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/11/15/vancouver-housing-toronto-crea_n_12988116.html

Many fewer units for Realtors to sell, 42% of the money is gone (nice commission salary cut) and they have to work at least 2X harder to make money since 1 SFH costs at least as much as 2 Condos…life’s a biatch…and pumping RE BS will just make it that harder to accept reality (what comes around, goes around)…karma.

#54 Asterix1 on 07.20.17 at 8:38 pm

#37 Tony the Gino on 07.20.17 at 7:52 pm
#35
I’m on your side bud. Just saying prices keep going higher in Vaughan and surrounding suburbs. So just saying let’s slow down this crash talk until a house actually costs what it did in 2013. Otherwise just blowing smoke when a townhouse still costs 1 million in suburbia. Al is a DB I agree but he had been right for a decade.
____________________________________________

You again!! Still trying to pump up Vaughan and Woodbridge. Enough with your clown show.

https://www.zolo.ca/vaughan-real-estate/trends

*Average price in Vaughan down -20.8% since highs.
*Inventory at 1,061 / Sales at 248 (crash!)
*A 4 bedroom townhouse in Vaughan, average cost is 835,000$.
* Woodbridge average/median way down. Same for sales, inventory to the roof.

Stop your lies!

#55 BobC on 07.20.17 at 8:42 pm

You do have to admit though, it’s fun to watch. The US is so corrupt it needs to reset. Boomer’s need to give their kids/grandkids a break and pick up their own tab.

#56 SimplyPut7 on 07.20.17 at 8:43 pm

#30 CP24 on 07.20.17 at 7:38 pm

I think I will watch this week’s episode, thanks!

Last week I couldn’t stand listening to them talk about the $3 million homes that are supposedly selling in the area of Scarborough he was talking about. Give me a break, we all get the sold data now, they don’t need to lie like that anymore.

—————————————————
#4 Tony the Gino on 07.20.17 at 6:47 pm
#10 Tony the Gino on 07.20.17 at 7:01 pm
#14 Tony the Gino on 07.20.17 at 7:06 pm

Silly me actually thought you were a real buyer, oh well. You remind me of the brick and mortar retail store salespeople, trying to get me to buy a TV for $1,000 or more when the $400 TV available online will do.

This will be the last housing bubble your kind will exist. When, not if, people realize how much data, mobile apps and websites are available now, and how the likes of you is just an obsolete intermediary getting in the way of a cheaper home; the number of “professionals” in the housing market will drop to 10%, and you and the other con artists can go back to whatever job you had before you thought making people overpay for homes should be the norm, instead of the exception.

#57 Fugget About It on 07.20.17 at 8:44 pm

Tony the Gino

Don’t believe what he says. No movement in Woodbridge. No one is buying and alot of for sale signs.

Tony the Gino is better known, in our Woodbridge neighbourhood, as Anthony the Clown. He is in his 40’s and lives with his elderly parents, who are retired and give him an allowance of $100 every week, really.

In the warmer months you can see him walking up and down the street with flip flops, a white sleeveless undershirt, with splattered pasta sauce, tucked into his Adidas polyester blue short shorts with the white vertical stripe on either side. On Sunday he wears his finest outfit, white shoes, black capri pants, and a funky blue short sleeve shirt. He always wears a couple of “gold” necklaces and a pinky ring.

In the colder months, he wears construction boots with the steel toes showing and yes, he wears the Anthony man suit, like every good Gino does. His man suit consists of a 2 pc Adidas blue polyester track suit, with the white stripe on either side.

Welcome to our neighbourhood in Woodbridge and our very own clown, Anthony, aka “Tony the Gino”! Enjoy.

#58 Annek on 07.20.17 at 8:48 pm

#23
MF
Why don’t you become a police officer instead of whining about “overpaid government workers”?
————
Every Tom, Dick and Mohan wants to be a police officer
It’s not so easy.

#59 Terry on 07.20.17 at 8:53 pm

The drama surrounding Trump does not matter. If Trump implodes Pence will be President. I continue to keep high exposure to U.S. and Canadian assets. There will always be bumps in the road. Risk can be managed, assets re-balanced, but zero exposure to the U.S.? Don’t bet against the USA!

#60 Smoking Man on 07.20.17 at 8:53 pm

Garth you crack me up.

Its got to be totaly shit to be a public figure in today’s insane cultural environment.

Any public figure especially in Cunukstan who shows Deplorable leenings will lose friends fast, business deals out the window, and posably a job loss.

Fortunately for me I have no friends, or a job, and only do business with Deplorables.

So I can say what ever the hell I want. I can’t describe how good that feels. Like flying without wings.

Garth your not fooling me, I know you are a closet Deplorable. The cowboy boots in July give it away.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics
Author of Deplorables.

#61 Ren Apostole on 07.20.17 at 8:57 pm

Bitcoin is soaring under Trump! And bitcoin! Gold doing better lately too. Adding to Canadian Exposure means more GOLD in the portfolio. Well done Garth! My gold stocks are going higher!

#62 Bob Dog on 07.20.17 at 9:04 pm

Trump may be in the White House bet Trump is no president.

I’m selling everything and taking the summer off.

Question: why is bitcoin worth 10 times ethereal? Both crypto currencies. Why the discrepancy? Tulips spring to mind.

#63 Kook Aid on 07.20.17 at 9:09 pm

Where’s the like button for this post.

Trim now, October is coming up fast, US debt ceiling showdown soon, it’s a dandy…”crypto gold” up 18% today, wow, trim time.

#64 Tyler Durden on 07.20.17 at 9:11 pm

Hi Garth. What do you think about US prefs as an investment option now that the USD is a lot cheaper? Something like VRP which tracks variable prefs which should in principle go up with rates?

#65 Danny on 07.20.17 at 9:12 pm

Seems many commenting on Garth’s blog love to quote real facts….unless when it comes to “Canadian Trump loyalists “….just blind loyalty.
Just like those Americans who depend on existing health plans….will lose their eligibility for health care..suffer greatly…..but still support Trump.
Good to hear Garth talk about strong economic factors in America…irrespective of Trumps obvious incompetence of running the Government.
Really 6 months and really no proven substantial advancement. Just Repeal by power of the pen…vindictive to Obama…really nothing more than that.
Remember Obama did not have the power needed but made good changes with Republicans…that’s how you work with the other side…obviously Trump never was capable of that in private life….only threat of suing etc..worked for him.
But not going to work in an American Democracy.
Listen to Garth…Trump is not America..there are many sensible people there. ..who turned around the worst economic disaster..can’t deny that…you guys know those facts.

#66 Blair on 07.20.17 at 9:14 pm

Trophy wives??? Like these ones – goo.gl/TGkrsT

#67 Smoking Man on 07.20.17 at 9:23 pm

@SmokingMan

Tomorrow is going to be epic. Australia Pink Floyed concert at Seneca Niagara. I will be live broadcasting on Paraiscope. Its going to be a combo of Wine, Jack Daniels and a tiny sleeve of acid. Too old for the good shit.

I also have front row seats for KISS in August. I’ll sell them for face value to any hard core blog dog KISS fans. Hell probably give them away for free if you give me a good Im hard done by story. And I dont care if your lieing. Just need you to buy my book and give me a good book review. When I read those orgasmic heaven for me.

Personaly I can’t stand Jean Simmons. Fake Rock and Roll.

#68 Blacksheep on 07.20.17 at 9:24 pm

A pair of realtors knocked on my door two weeks ago to tell me they can sell my 1/4 acre view lot in Abbotsford for over $900K (I paid $425 3 years ago) due to the fact zoning policy is changing in Abby.

I had a meeting with city planners and they confirmed I can split my lot and build two, 3 level, 3000? sq/ft homes, suited, with garages out back. The current single home is very nice, but built in 1957 and ‘only’ a 2000 sq/ft, 2 level split.

It seems the city cores are being infilled, rather than allowing RE to expand outwards into ALR lands in the Valley. Van mayor just announced a similar policy change in Van on CBC today.

These same realtors sold a 1/4 acre lot/home two doors down for $ 835K about a month ago and the place is back on the market, asking, $899K. Realtor told me they planned on flipping it, when they bought it.

Larger properties with older homes (now subdivide-able) near the core of cities are going to explode in value as cities restrict expansion outward, all in an effort to infill and coral the masses to reduce the need for costly, expanded infrastructure.

And we think we’ve got crazy prices and a housing shortage now……Agenda 21/30 anyone?

#69 Mike in Edm on 07.20.17 at 9:27 pm

Here are my current Year over Year stats for Alberta cities. Very unscientific, all based on realtor.ca listings for average sized homes, amounts, LISTING prices, etc. Take it as you want…

Edmonton July 2017 vs 2016:
Total listings up 14%
House listings up 11%
House listing prices down 6.5%

Calgary July 2017 vs 2016:
Total listings up 10.5%
House listings up 10.5%
House listing prices down 6%

#70 waiting on the westcoast on 07.20.17 at 9:31 pm

#32 OttawaMike on 07.20.17 at 7:43 pm
“@waiting on the westcoast
Those stairs in the picture are the joke. Seriously? A lawsuit waiting.”

Those stairs are real but done voluntarily by someone who lives near the park for $550.

I agree with you that this is not up to code, etc. His frustration was that the city was looking at bids of up to 150k to put a few steps in so he did for $550 out of his own pocket.

It should probably only cost 3-6k if done to code but the city said they could not do it because it was so expensive in their bidding process…

#71 The Realtors Were Right on 07.20.17 at 9:31 pm

#37 Tony the Gino on 07.20.17 at 7:52 pm
#35
I’m on your side bud. Just saying prices keep going higher in Vaughan and surrounding suburbs. So just saying let’s slow down this crash talk until a house actually costs what it did in 2013. Otherwise just blowing smoke when a townhouse still costs 1 million in suburbia. Al is a DB I agree but he had been right for a decade.
——

That is so true. The only ones that called this massive spike in prices were the realtors. When rates were cut in 2009, they were the only ones that said rates would last a decade – and its 2017 and rates are still at emergency levels. And it will take several more years of rate increases just to get back to 2008 rates.

All the bears said – watch out, rates can spike just like they did in the 1980s. Almost a decade later we are cheering a measly 0.25% – and the soon to be years of slow, gradual increases – as ending the market.

By the time rates get back to 2008 levels – till be about 13 years. Yes, 13 years of people waiting, predicting, hoping, and ultimately missing out on the greatest investment opportunity in a lifetime.

All those high school dropouts called it correctly and made enormous money that people here whine about it because its not fair under the meritocratic system they think Canada is… lol

#72 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 07.20.17 at 9:32 pm

Horse Falls and Grape-Grower Country Update:

Sales-to-New Listings Ratio derived from Niagara Association of Realtors available data: http://www.niagararealtor.ca/niagara-property-statistics

Jan-13 No Data
Feb-13 No Data
Mar-13 No Data
Apr-13 No Data
May-13 No Data
Jun-13 0.631191
Jul-13 0.58682
Aug-13 0.606729
Sep-13 0.564732
Oct-13 0.632727
Nov-13 0.896552
Dec-13 0.88563
Jan-14 No Data
Feb-14 No Data
Mar-14 No Data
Apr-14 No Data
May-14 No Data
Jun-14 0.608777
Jul-14 0.660559
Aug-14 0.64938
Sep-14 0.582136
Oct-14 0.622776
Nov-14 0.914773
Dec-14 0.898072
Jan-15 No Data
Feb-15 No Data
Mar-15 No Data
Apr-15 No Data
May-15 No Data
Jun-15 No Data
Jul-15 0.709184
Aug-15 0.676587
Sep-15 0.757991
Oct-15 0.975357
Nov-15 0.885167
Dec-15 0.903465
Jan-16 0.705782
Feb-16 0.787234
Mar-16 0.718816
Apr-16 0.888421
May-16 0.863806
Jun-16 0.893756
Jul-16 0.942503
Aug-16 0.870575
Sep-16 0.887601
Oct-16 0.814507
Nov-16 0.93695
Dec-16 1.102902
Jan-17 0.839851
Feb-17 0.892241
Mar-17 0.992762
Apr-17 0.772867
May-17 0.682031
Jun-17 0.591527

This ain’t no Toronto or Vancouver.

Average residential prices remained steady from 2013 but began a new, steeper upward trend early 2016 (excluding already higher home prices from Niagara-on-the-Lake and Pelham/Fonthill).

Days on market continue to decrease for the residential market in the area.

Appears – on the surface – to be a sellers market.

– AG:Q

#73 JustMe on 07.20.17 at 9:32 pm

Why Rates Can’t Rise

there is little ability to absorb higher rates before it drastically curbs consumption.

There are basically only TWO possible outcomes from here, both of them not good.

continue to hike rates until an economic recession occurs which requires them to lower rates again.

an economic decoupling that leads to a massive deleveraging process.

This is what the bond market continues to tell you if you will only listen. With the 10-year bond close to 2%, and the yield curve flattening, future rate increases are limited

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/people-buy-payments-why-rates-cant-rise/

#74 Blacksheep on 07.20.17 at 9:33 pm

Link to the Van CBC story:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-cambie-corridor-1.4157705

#75 JustMe on 07.20.17 at 9:37 pm

Vancouver housing starts plunge

Total housing starts in the city of Vancouver have dropped 80% in the first six months compared with the same period in 2016, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), from 5,784 to 1,860 units.

https://www.biv.com/article/2017/7/vancouver-housing-start-plunge-surprise/

#76 Goldie on 07.20.17 at 9:40 pm

50% chance he won’t finish his term?!

Lol. Even the pros can suffer from TDS.

#77 n1tro on 07.20.17 at 9:52 pm

#62 Bob Dog on 07.20.17 at 9:04 pm

Question: why is bitcoin worth 10 times ethereal? Both crypto currencies. Why the discrepancy? Tulips spring to mind.

Both crypto but not the same. Ethereum is late to the party but climbing while Bitcoin is falling from all time high.

“Tulips” is a weak analogy. Tulipmania back in the day was the over paying of tulip bulbs which had abundant supply and can be grown. I’d compare crypto’s rise being similar to the silver lust which peaked the day Osama got killed.

#78 Kook Aid on 07.20.17 at 9:54 pm

#62 Bob Dog

700+ unique crypocurrencies, distributed ledger tech will change everything.

Check out David Yermack on the future of blockchain & finance.

The NYU Finance Professor explains why this future is coming much faster then anyone wants it too, YouTube it, best summarization.

#79 Nemesis on 07.20.17 at 9:58 pm

“I think there’s [now] a 50-50 chance he doesn’t finish his term.” – RyanTheTrophyHusband

#WinningMuch?,Or… #100%Chance… #IfSSFoodTastersAreOutsourced,Too

[CBS] – Mar-a-Lago requests permission for more foreign workers during “Made in America” week

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/mar-a-lago-requests-more-foreign-worker-visas-during-made-in-america-week/

#80 waiting on the westcoast on 07.20.17 at 9:59 pm

#64 Danny on 07.20.17 at 9:12 pm
“…irrespective of Trumps obvious incompetence of running the Government.
Really 6 months and really no proven substantial advancement. Just Repeal by power of the pen…vindictive to Obama…really nothing more than that.”

Totally true… His whole MO is to year down Obama. Really sad because things like restructuring their Medicare system, changing the tax code and reducing red tape are good ideas if done with thought and care. But he just wants to write-off anything that Obama did…

#81 Willy H on 07.20.17 at 10:02 pm

Trump = Risk

Who could have actually come to any other conclusion, even before this snake-oil salesman ascended the Oval Office?

Never bought a single line of the BS that “expert” analysts peddled after he was elected. His own party does not want him to succeed!

The man is a sociopath.

” a man with some “sociopathic” proclivities in society riddled with fear and hatred that is enabling his behavior.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/07/trump-and-sociopathy/491966/

Even if the above article is not persuasive, how about a mountain of evidence citing his slime trail of business and negotiating disasters.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/why-donald-trump-isn-t-the-successful-businessman-he-claims-to-be-us-elections-republican-politics-7173666.html

Trump’s economic policies (when coherent, which was rare) were little more than fiscal paper maché. The same old failed 1980’s trickle-down garbage that precipitated the divide between haves and have-nots and contributed to the end of the middle class as we had known it.*

Governments should never be run like a business, let alone a business modeled on a Trump’s serial failures.

#82 Smoking Mam on 07.20.17 at 10:04 pm

#73 JustMe on 07.20.17 at 9:32 pm
Why Rates Can’t Rise

there is little ability to absorb higher rates before it drastically curbs consumption.

There are basically only TWO possible outcomes from here, both of them not good.

continue to hike rates until an economic recession occurs which requires them to lower rates again.

an economic decoupling that leads to a massive deleveraging process.

This is what the bond market continues to tell you if you will only listen. With the 10-year bond close to 2%, and the yield curve flattening, future rate increases are limited

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/people-buy-payments-why-rates-cant-rise/
…..

Really. You haven’t read Deplorables by me. An abstract version of the truth diliverd in a comadic way as to avoid suicide by shooting my self in the head by 3 bullets.

Only way globalism can be accepted is to turn western boys into girls, destroy capitalistic boners into starving yes my government I will ulter my behavior for that last slice of rye bread.

People at the top are deranged mental cases. But they have so much power.

The risitance starts here, #MAGA

#83 Angela on 07.20.17 at 10:04 pm

Those socks are so adorable! Paired with charisma, confidence and a light cologne… Just wish I was 25 years younger so I could add man bun. Walking art.

#84 People are Strange on 07.20.17 at 10:04 pm

I’m finding it hilarious how there are still people out there thinking the RE market can go up any further. We’re way past what the affordabilty calculators can garner, even with the relaxed lending practices of the last few years.
If you’re in this for speculation, that ship has sailed….long over the horizon! GET OUT NOW, or increase your rent and hope people can pay.
It’s so simple people; nothing could grow like this freakish market in the past few years without a free fall at some point.
For the the long haul, we’ll be fine. Just stop watching the news. Lol

#85 TurnerNation on 07.20.17 at 10:07 pm

Is this aka Tony the comedian in Woodbridge?

https://www.instagram.com/riccardobackyardo/

Riccardo Backyardo Comedian/Parody Song Writer SAVING THE WORLD ONE SMILE AT A TIME Italian.

#86 People watching people on 07.20.17 at 10:18 pm

Someone asked a few days ago what people are buying in the Toronto market. Well my rental is being sold and I set up a surveillance camera to keep track of the comings and goings. The condo unit is a 2+den and has never been updated in it’s 13 year life (ghetto carpet and original white appliances) and the landlord is asking $1M; comparable units in the building rent for about $3300, I pay much less. :)

So who’s been by? To date 15 viewing appointments have been made in the last 2 weeks, 12 appear to be of European decent, 2 appear to be of East Asian decent and 1 appeared to be of South Asian decent. 2 of the appointments went to people who appear to be over 50, the bulk appeared to be in their 30s, some with young kids in tow and 2 appeared to be in their 20s.

Today, I had a pair of Moisters who practically wet themselves. They stayed a staggering 10 minutes in the suite to imagine what they would do (no audio, so just going by the hand gestures). Everyone else spent on average 2.5 minutes in this place… it’s that disappointing, one person spent all of 1 minute 20 seconds… basically walked in to the living room window, admired the fantastic view, checked out the master bedroom, turned and walked out.

I know this place shouldn’t sell at this price, since there are comparable properties in the area that have undercut the listing and these other listings have spent $$$ on hardwood and stainless steel appliances.

HHCE

#87 Willy H on 07.20.17 at 10:22 pm

Asterix1 on 07.20.17 at 8:38 pm

You again!! Still trying to pump up Vaughan and Woodbridge. Enough with your clown show.

https://www.zolo.ca/vaughan-real-estate/trends

*Average price in Vaughan down -20.8% since highs.
*Inventory at 1,061 / Sales at 248 (crash!)
*A 4 bedroom townhouse in Vaughan, average cost is 835,000$.
* Woodbridge average/median way down. Same for sales, inventory to the roof.

Stop your lies!
___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___

Vaughan exemplifies the worst of the GTA.

> New detached builds are densely stacked making the entire sub-division appear little more than gigantic container ship.
>It’s a ethnic ghetto of sorts, although that has been changing of late.
>Traffic grid-lock everywhere you go due to poor planning, the 400 splitting the city in two, not enough over-passes on the 400, not enough on/off ramp access to the 400, the CN rail yard forces Langstaff traffic north or south when travelling eastward
>Horrible drivers, especially those with high end vehicles.
>It’s all going to get much worse as large dark condo towers are rising on both sides of the 400 around the new subway station. The infrastructure was designed for low density residential and it cannot handle condo density effectively.

#88 Deplorable Dust in the wind on 07.20.17 at 10:24 pm

#82 Smoking Mam on 07.20.17 at 10:04 pm

#73 JustMe on 07.20.17 at 9:32 pm
Why Rates Can’t Rise

there is little ability to absorb higher rates before it drastically curbs consumption.

There are basically only TWO possible outcomes from here, both of them not good.

continue to hike rates until an economic recession occurs which requires them to lower rates again.

an economic decoupling that leads to a massive deleveraging process.

This is what the bond market continues to tell you if you will only listen. With the 10-year bond close to 2%, and the yield curve flattening, future rate increases are limited

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/people-buy-payments-why-rates-cant-rise/
…..

Really. You haven’t read Deplorables by me. An abstract version of the truth diliverd in a comadic way as to avoid suicide by shooting my self in the head by 3 bullets.

Only way globalism can be accepted is to turn western boys into girls, destroy capitalistic boners into starving yes my government I will ulter my behavior for that last slice of rye bread.

People at the top are deranged mental cases. But they have so much power.

The risitance starts here, #MAGA
..

You still pumping that ‘talking dick head” drivel.. hope you didn’t quit your day job……..

#89 Bullish In Montreal on 07.20.17 at 10:30 pm

These bearish comments from Garth & Co. can only mean one thing: Go long the USA! Dow 36,000 here we come!

#90 Mark on 07.20.17 at 10:37 pm

Anyone remember all the laughter I elicited a few months ago for swearing up and down that the CAD$ would start surging as the housing bubble collapsed?

Well here we are. Closing in on 80 cents. Deflation is accelerating. Consumer prices are falling due to cheaper imports. Poloz is looking like an awful fool for raising the policy rate into a falling housing market and economy mired in consumer price deflation.

#91 Smoking Man on 07.20.17 at 10:41 pm

DELETED

#92 Smoking Man on 07.20.17 at 10:48 pm

#88 Deplorable Dust in the wind on 07.20.17 at 10:24 pm
#82 Smoking Mam on 07.20.17 at 10:04 pm

#73 JustMe on 07.20.17 at 9:32 pm
Why Rates Can’t Rise

there is little ability to absorb higher rates before it drastically curbs consumption.

There are basically only TWO possible outcomes from here, both of them not good.

continue to hike rates until an economic recession occurs which requires them to lower rates again.

an economic decoupling that leads to a massive deleveraging process.

This is what the bond market continues to tell you if you will only listen. With the 10-year bond close to 2%, and the yield curve flattening, future rate increases are limited

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/people-buy-payments-why-rates-cant-rise/
…..

Really. You haven’t read Deplorables by me. An abstract version of the truth diliverd in a comadic way as to avoid suicide by shooting my self in the head by 3 bullets.

Only way globalism can be accepted is to turn western boys into girls, destroy capitalistic boners into starving yes my government I will ulter my behavior for that last slice of rye bread.

People at the top are deranged mental cases. But they have so much power.

The risitance starts here, #MAGA
..

You still pumping that ‘talking dick head” drivel.. hope you didn’t quit your day job……..

…..

Don’t need a day job. alien here with a no work ethic with super FX powers.

You studied this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vzC7bG8E8g

#93 InvestorsFriend on 07.20.17 at 10:55 pm

Crypto Currency, Bitcoin Ethereum

Wake me up when U.S. dollars are quoted as being worth so many Bitcoin or Ethereum rather than the other way around. Same for when U.S. dollars are quoted as so many grains of gold.

I like the name Ethereum. They do know that the ether was an imagined substance that turned out not to exist?

Definition of ether
1
a : the rarefied element formerly believed to fill the upper regions of space
b : the upper regions of space : heavens

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.20.17 at 10:57 pm

@#15 AK
“President Trump will be there 8 years in total.”
++++++

You’re referring to prison? After the impeachment?

#95 Pete from St. Cesaire on 07.20.17 at 10:57 pm

Even repealing and replacing Obamacare has proven impossible for a leader who can’t build coalitions.
———————————————————
Letting it all fall apart is the plan. That way the health & insurance lobby will be allowed to step in and fill the void the way they want it.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.20.17 at 10:58 pm

@#92 Smoking man

Hittin the bottle a little early tonight are we smokey? Or are you in training for the Weekend?

#97 Smoking Man on 07.20.17 at 11:00 pm

DELETED

#98 waiting on the westcoast on 07.20.17 at 11:07 pm

Mark – the US$ is sinking… and oil is rising in price. Both things are positive for the CDN.

Here is a good primer on forex to read…

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/11/cad-dollar-what-fx-traders-should-know.asp

#99 Tony on 07.20.17 at 11:09 pm

Re: #10 Tony the Gino on 07.20.17 at 7:01 pm

Resale houses on the outskirts of nowhere in America go for under 100 grand not for a million dollars.

#100 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.20.17 at 11:17 pm

87 Willy H

Woodbridge is a horrible place to live. Traffic all day every day. you have to drive to get anywhere. I seriously wouldn’t want to live there if prices were half. there are a couple of main arteries for Traffic. Like you say when these condos are built the congestion will be terrible. Idiots that would buy a condo there. Buyers regret all over GTA as buyers looking to walk. Condo buyers in Woodbridge will cry very soon when they move in.

#101 mike from mtl on 07.20.17 at 11:17 pm

Serious question, why bother ‘tactical’ moves like weightings? Isn’t that against the overreaching passive nature of well, passive portfolios?

The poloz peso gain is defiantly a surprise however, just a buying opportunity as it has no fundamental grounds. A weaker US$ is all but temporary.

Not changing my allocation or totally non-hedged status. Wait until Canukustan & peso is in the crapper once again which is in the near future.

#102 And I Quote on 07.20.17 at 11:19 pm

“Without deviation from the norm, progress is not possible.”
― Frank Zappa

#103 Pete on 07.20.17 at 11:33 pm

waiting on the westcoast on 07.20.17 at 9:31 pm
#32 OttawaMike on 07.20.17 at 7:43 pm
“@waiting on the westcoast
Those stairs in the picture are the joke. Seriously? A lawsuit waiting.”

Those stairs are real but done voluntarily by someone who lives near the park for $550.

I agree with you that this is not up to code, etc. His frustration was that the city was looking at bids of up to 150k to put a few steps in so he did for $550 out of his own pocket.

It should probably only cost 3-6k if done to code but the city said they could not do it because it was so expensive in their bidding process…

Smok8ngman and the other “anti worker” people who blame city workers for everything. The real theft is the contacting out of construction jobs. The city said it would cost $65000 via bidding process. this is where the real city money waste is at. Remeber this was for a few steps. Imagine the big contracts? City losing way more money and had no control.

#104 Billy DaFoe on 07.20.17 at 11:34 pm

We need a posting about why Canadians are buying so much USA real estate. That’s the news stories of today that I’ve seen.

#105 Deplorable dust in the wind on 07.20.17 at 11:42 pm

#97 Smoking Man on 07.20.17 at 11:00 pm

DELETED
..
Such eloquence…. you should be a writer!

#106 Lee on 07.20.17 at 11:46 pm

Prices are not rising in Vaughan. Nothing is moving in Vaughan. Some properties have sat for months.

#107 White Crock BC on 07.21.17 at 12:13 am

AK on 07.20.17 at 7:08 pm

““I think,” says Ryan, “there’s now a 50-50 chance he doesn’t finish his term. ”
——————————————————————–
I will take this bet. President Trump will be there 8 years in total.
=======

Are you paying attention or are you in the closed Fox/Breitbart/Trump tweets/Smoking Man loop?

#108 Nonplused on 07.21.17 at 12:18 am

I just wish there was a 50/50 chance Trudeau wouldn’t finish his term.

#109 Nonplused on 07.21.17 at 12:19 am

Oh ya and Nutley too.

#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.21.17 at 1:43 am

IT and HR add no value to companies.
They are just parasites wallowing in their self importance.
Ask any IT or HR what their company’s objectives are and you’ll stare at blank faces.
Fire everyone of those losers.
And the company will flourish.

#111 M-cube on 07.21.17 at 2:31 am

Europe, like the US has major troubles with its political class. Is it possible the both the US and European markets will take a short term tumble at the same time? Only time will tell. Final call to place your bets!

#112 M-cube on 07.21.17 at 2:45 am

Let’s get Smoking Man in a Dunk Tank at the Belfountain General Store on a Saturday this August! All proceed to charity of course!

It would be like having the messiah of the greaterfool blog undergo his final persecution. His very own Martin Scorsese moment.

Once the crowd starts getting bored with Smoking Man I wouldn’t be surprised to hear a slow but steady chant erupt for Garth to be put on the wet seat too – in the name of charity of course!

dunk tank rentals
http://www.eventdirect.ca/dunk-tanks.html

#113 Reality Check on Reality Check on 07.21.17 at 2:58 am

#53 YVR RE Pumpers on 07.20.17 at 8:35 pm
Go here:

http://www.myrealtycheck.ca/

The down pointing red arrows outnumber the up pointing blue arrows by more than 2:1 and have for quite some time now.

Average price changes in $ are all negative.

The average price change by month line chart is all negative and has been since Oct. 2016 and it looks like July 2017 will be negative as well.

All that you have now is a dead cat bounce because of expected rate increases & OSFI – fools.
—————

While everyone appreciates your data, the reality is that your site only tracks asking prices – NOT sold prices. Sold prices is where the real information is at. The up and down arrows are simply cases where people priced too high and realized it or too low – just outliers that’s all.

Its not an accurate reflection of the market.

#114 Island Update on 07.21.17 at 3:36 am

#52 VI Deplorable on 07.20.17 at 8:30 pm
#44 FOUR FINGERS WATSON

Just like the Okanagan, rutting season is in full swing over here on the Island still. My bet continues that outlying spots like Campbell River to Duncan and Victoria and Surrounds continue to be on heat for time to come as horny lottery winners from the Lower Mainland cash out.

———-

Nice prediction, but market conditions are the opposite of what you say.

From Duncan to Victoria, prices have reached the tipping point of being ridiculous, inventory is slowing building up again, price adjustments are all downwards, and houses sitting on the market a lot longer. Sellers got away months ago with insane asking prices because there was little inventory – but that has changed. Super good quality homes go relatively fast, but everything else is rotting. Massive amounts of new builds will only compound the rising inventory levels of resale homes.

And seriously, Duncan – you have to be insane to think that there is any value in Duncan. Lol. I would not want to be a recent buyer of any communities surrounding Victoria when this thing goes south.

In real estate, a rising tide raises all boats. But price rises in the periphery are the last to materialize and the first to disappear when prices in the core change. This has been shown over and over again in all markets over time.

And since SFH sales have fallen off a cliff in Vancouver, the flood of ‘foreign to the island buyers’ has pretty much dried up. Those that bought will be seeing their lotto winnings diminish quickly.

Besides, the NDP is now entrenched in power and they will move very fast on cooling the market. Islanders know this but the Vancouverites cashing out are in for a rude awakening.

The new housing minister will be working closely with the new Attorney General – David Eby – the MLA that exposed all the loopholes in the foreign buyers tax, the extent of money laundering in Vancouver, the dodginess of ‘beneficial’ ownership. He now has the tools to crush those loopholes and eliminate the influence of realtors and developers in BC.

If they don’t move quickly, they risk losing the very voters in the lower mainland that supported their near sweep of seats in the lower mainland. And time of is of the essence in a minority government since you never know how long you have – make hay while the sun shines.

#115 Alex K on 07.21.17 at 4:22 am

To #45 Tony the Gino
Oh yeah, 5 San Romanoway (Finch and Jane) 2 bed+2 bath $179,000 really eaxpensive,
Tony, go buy another pick up you delusional moron

#116 Alex k on 07.21.17 at 4:23 am

To #45 Tony the Gino
Oh yeah, 5 San Romanoway (Finch and Jane) 2 bed+2 bath $179,000 really eaxpensive,
Tony, go buy another pick up you delusional moron .

#117 NoName on 07.21.17 at 4:59 am

Interesting read,

I can just imagine what will happen when all cars are electric, maybe government hydro will charge storage fee on top of delivery fee…

http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/canada/man-loses-court-battle-over-electricity-charges-for-cottage-without-power-1.3511546

#118 Smoking Man on 07.21.17 at 6:22 am

Definition of Covfefe

You awake at dawn after spending the entire night night under the Gazibo slumped in your chair. You try and count the empty mickeys but your still seeing double and realize if she loved you back you would have made it to bed.

The most wonderful thing about life, she filled the coffee maker with water and covfefe, you just need too push the button to start another worthless day void of too much effort.

#119 paulo on 07.21.17 at 6:33 am

#104

simple; us real estate is reasonably priced for the most part and the market down south still has significant upside potential unlike the market here in Canada that is entering a painful correction.
house horny beavers purchasing down south had better be doing careful due diligence concerning tax implications and other aspects of owning off shore property.

#120 Smoking Man on 07.21.17 at 6:40 am

This guy is such a loser.

Bill Nye specifically targeted the elderly this week as he spoke out against climate change deniers, saying that climate science will start to advance when old people start to “age out,” according to a report.

The “Science Guy” said that generationally, the majority of climate change deniers are older.
…..

Thats because when we went to school we were taught math and English. Not like your target adiance who have been brainwashed to make it cool for boys to become girls and allow what is left of a pay check to be handed over to the UN to make billionaires rid there wealth guilt handing it to 3rd world countries while instictavly taking a cut.

#121 Here's The Deal on 07.21.17 at 6:46 am

Here’s the deal:

Never bet against the U.S.A.

#122 Here's The Deal on 07.21.17 at 6:53 am

#102 And I Quote

“Without deviation from the norm, progress is not possible.”
― Frank Zappa
——————————————————————-
Here’s the deal:

I LOVE Frank Zappa

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&ved=0ahUKEwiZ4Ju_mprVAhUr6IMKHdN9BLMQjRwIBw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.domain.com.au%2Fnews%2Fbuy-a-house-save-frank-zappas-musical-legacy-20160310-gne8s7%2F&psig=AFQjCNFBFtDWZ067qTJXAx3FIsagivIDZw&ust=1500720707925348

#123 SimplyPut7 on 07.21.17 at 7:40 am

#87 Willy H on 07.20.17 at 10:22 pm

Vaughan/Woodbridge are not the worst of the GTA, Milton and Brampton still win that prize.

But many GTA homes are very overpriced for what they offer, not only are they far from work:
* dependent on cars to get to and from the local entertainment and stores because they lack the transit they need to support their growing city. It should not take anyone in the GTA more than 10 minutes to get to the grocery store from their house by car, there are cities outside of the GTA that have been developed and better planned for hospitals, public schools and shopping centres than GTA cities.
* lack enough competitive grocery/entertainment/retail stores to not have major price differences between their city and Toronto
* don’t have enough quality post-secondary schools in the area – York University can’t take everyone north of Steeles and good luck to all of the students in the 905 trying to get to school in the GTA without a car…in winter.
* higher property taxes, for less services than Toronto
* you have to rely on police officers and emergency services that don’t have the experience of dealing with big city crime but have lots of interesting characters to deal with. Remember this photo?
https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/news/crime/2017/07/06/second-suspect-sought-in-vaughan-caf-explosion/cafe-corretto2.jpg.size.custom.crop.1086×724.jpg

Home prices in the 905 area will be lower in comparison to Toronto again – like they have always been in the past. Once people realize they are spending as much money if not more on gas, transit, groceries and time; trying to do everything they could have done for less effort and money in Toronto, just to get a bigger house with rooms they don’t use more than once or twice a year when family visit.

Also, I know someone who bought a condo near the new transit line in Vaughan, the person said it was mostly investors buying and it was a packed house at the sales office in January 2017. A little under $500,000 for a 2 bed 2 bath condo. Prices in the GTA are falling so rapidly, you can barely get buyers who bought in the last 90 days to close on what they bought. How are you going to get a people who bought condos on speculation to pay in full for the condos they purchased, when the buildings are finished?

#124 Canadian on 07.21.17 at 7:44 am

“Trudeau gunna pay my mortgage!”

#125 fancy_pants on 07.21.17 at 7:46 am

MSM and politicians are simply puppets for the global elite. $ talks. Problem they are having is that trump can’t be bought. Any risk trump generates is from draining the swamp and the risk is completely inherent to the sins of all the puppets before him.

#126 Oft-Deleted Stock Picker on 07.21.17 at 8:07 am

Truth is not popular….. but back to markets. The EU has been dummied up for political reasons. The elites don’t want people to stop supporting the madness….all at the same time. Hey…..I used to write lies for a popular political party, I know the drill…..but any money in EU issues….not with a barge pole…..ditto….China.

US…..of course….the numbers can be relied on. The success and longevity of Trump depend on which talk show and rag you might frequent for “news”. My side says Trumps a winner…..two term….with a bullet.

I run the RSI on every TSX issue frequently. I wouldn’t buy the underperforming index….but there are 35 actual winners…..outperformance like crazy….5 that are truly positive buys on RSI. Stock Picking rules

#127 cto on 07.21.17 at 8:17 am

“In a new report, CIBC Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal argues the Bank of Canada is “not oblivious to the fact” that borrowers are highly sensitive to rate increases.”

Housing Perma Bull Ben Tal!
Wow Ben! Talk about a guy with irons in the fire!!!
I’m sure your bank will do just fine even if you do sell less mortgages…

#128 cto on 07.21.17 at 8:23 am

Ben tal

“Given current momentum in the market, it might be advisable to rethink the timing” of new stress tests for uninsured mortgages, according to Tal.

Really? Ben? Are you saying that we need to let the fools keep over-leveraging themselves in order to keep your little mortgage business growing at the Imperial?!

Let the chips fall where they may right?

Garth,…we REALLY need to remove CMHC so that these parasite banks stop running-a-muck!!! this mans remarks clearly show what his bank is greatly exposed to, and depending on.

#129 cto on 07.21.17 at 8:26 am

Golly Gee Mr.Tal
I thought you said the housing market was as solid as a rock!!! What could a little due diligence regulation do to ???

#130 nick on 07.21.17 at 8:27 am

#45 Tony the Gino on 07.20.17 at 8:14 pm

Tony you’re either really biased or really ignorant. If you’ve actually been following prices in Vaughan over the last few months, things are definitely dropping. And whats even better, is minimal to no bidding wars. Yes things are expensive, but thats because it was always and will always be an expensive area. Give it time, things will continue to drop. But dont expect it to be dirt cheap…

#131 nick on 07.21.17 at 8:29 am

Example of following the market down in Bolton:

June 22 List $749,900
July 11 $729,900
July 21 $699,000

#132 NoName on 07.21.17 at 8:32 am

#118 Smoking Man on 07.21.17 at 6:22 am

Definition of Covfefe

You awake at dawn after spending the entire night night under the Gazibo slumped in your chair. You try and count the empty mickeys but your still seeing double and realize if she loved you back you would have made it to bed.

The most wonderful thing about life, she filled the coffee maker with water and covfefe, you just need too push the button to start another worthless day void of too much effort.

—-

At the peak of my unemployment when i woud wake up thirsty as fish with giant headich i wasnt going for covfefe, beer was a only thing that could extenglish a thirst.

Maybe its time to retire, and hand a torch to Emma, and let her leed deplorables. its not gonna be to long before русский leak photos of you having a pink iscream at store…
tick tok, tick tock

#I_Have_Russian_Name

#133 Nemesis on 07.21.17 at 8:33 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvT1sz41xU4

#134 Keith in Calgary on 07.21.17 at 9:00 am

Calgary Herald reported that we have a “glut” of property available for rent and sale……..probably the “largest in several decades” (their words).

I guess they want to go out on record with an actual factual genuine news article for once.

#135 Andrew t on 07.21.17 at 9:01 am

Interesting notion:

“A new working paper by the Emory University political scientists B. Pablo Montagnes, Zachary Peskowitz and Joshua McCrain argues that people who identify as Republican may stop doing so if they disapprove of Trump, creating a false stability in his partisan approval numbers even as the absolute number of people approving him shrinks. Gallup data supports this idea, showing a four-percentage-point decline in G.O.P. identification since the 2016 election that is mirrored in other polling, though to a lesser extent”

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/449716/donald-trump-shrinking-gop

#136 Penny Henny on 07.21.17 at 9:06 am

Some months ago the fancy, trophy wife-owning, Porsche-driving, gay sock-wearing, omniscient portfolio manager dudes I work with (who are allowed to blog here occasionally, just to keep them real) had a message.-GT

Interesting comment. They own the wife and drive the Porsche. I wonder why not the other way around?

#137 Dee on 07.21.17 at 9:09 am

tony the gino is full of crap. Pretending to want to buy. Take your pick. There’s an infinite amount of listings in woodbridge.

#138 Dee on 07.21.17 at 9:36 am

Mark, looking at a chart of CDN$ vs USD years 1987-1996 shows CDN at .73-.76 in 1987. It rose for years with top being 1992 at roughly .89 cents. Steady decline from 1992 (.89 cents) bottoming in 1995 (.70 cents).

Basically, it’s hard to prove/disprove your argument about deleveraging spiking the currency. Housing bust was in 89 (currency was rising). Bust continued through to 1995. By that time the currency was already at .70 cents

#139 Dups on 07.21.17 at 9:57 am

Why would the US markets care about Trump? He is just a puppet after all to the lobbyists and string pullers with $$$. Politicians come and go, Dow, SP500, Nasdaq and their main backbone companies have been in the background for a century. I think we are giving Trump too much credit when he really has about 15% power or so.

#140 n1tro on 07.21.17 at 10:06 am

#103 Pete on 07.20.17 at 11:33 pm

“Imagine the big contracts? City losing way more money and had no control.”

The city always has the power to not move forward with a ridiculous offer like it did with the $65K quote for the staircase. Their failure is not encouraging more open contractors to join the bidding process to get a more reasonable price.

What would have been more of a scandal would be for the stairs to have been made and then later reviewed to have costed $65K! Hopefully stories like this or the whole paving scandal makes public officials more accountable when using public funds. One can dream.

https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2017/04/28/opp-probing-suspected-toronto-city-bid-rigging.html

#141 IHCTD9 on 07.21.17 at 10:07 am

#117 NoName on 07.21.17 at 4:59 am
Interesting read,

I can just imagine what will happen when all cars are electric, maybe government hydro will charge storage fee on top of delivery fee…

http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/canada/man-loses-court-battle-over-electricity-charges-for-cottage-without-power-1.3511546

__________________________________________

It’ll be a long time before any non-Metropolis dwelling Ontarian buys a pure electric car. Just too expensive to run once everything is factored in. MUCH cheaper to just buy a Honda Civic and avoid the electric rollercoaster headache altogether.

After Wynnes can-kicking cost “reduction” expires, and we all have to start paying back the savings, plus interest – Hydro costs will be in the .35-.40/KWH in 10-15 years or so. If you own a Tesla S at that time, your cost per mile will be about the same as your neighbour who drives a Dodge Ram HEMI.

#142 n1tro on 07.21.17 at 10:10 am

#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.21.17 at 1:43 am

“IT and HR add no value to companies.”

But who would reset our passwords that we have forgotten since we are forced to change it every 3 months? And someone has to plan the fire drill routes!

#143 SimplyPut7 on 07.21.17 at 10:11 am

#134 Keith in Calgary on 07.21.17 at 9:00 am

No use lying anymore, we can all see the empty homes being listed for sale online. I wonder how long it will take Toronto and the surrounding areas to admit they have the same problem.

http://calgaryherald.com/business/local-business/city-census-suggests-calgarys-housing-glut-highest-in-decades

#144 Deplorable dust in the wind on 07.21.17 at 10:11 am

#120 Smoking Man on 07.21.17 at 6:40 am
This guy is such a loser.

Bill Nye specifically targeted the elderly this week as he spoke out against climate change deniers, saying that climate science will start to advance when old people start to “age out,” according to a report.

The “Science Guy” said that generationally, the majority of climate change deniers are older.
…..

Thats because when we went to school we were taught math and English. Not like your target adiance who have been brainwashed to make it cool for boys to become girls and allow what is left of a pay check to be handed over to the UN to make billionaires rid there wealth guilt handing it to 3rd world countries while instictavly taking a cut.


Since being broomed by the snowflakes, you have a strange obsession with trannies… retirement’s gonna kill you.

#145 Johnny Boy on 07.21.17 at 10:15 am

#76 Smoking Man on 06.18.17 at 11:16 pm
I love Roger Waters, but he’s lost his mind and his way. I got no problem with him helping out the Palestinians, the wall.
But to put “Resist” tee shirts of kids that sing a stage his songs is deplorable.
Resist means kill free speech, that’s what’s at play here. The idiot doesn’t see it. I still love him.
The old man quit drinking and smoking, went to the Democratic dark side that is more of a Stalin party than a Kennedy party.
He’s peaked a long time ago. Regurgitating songs of my youth that kept me from killing myself when things got tough, and I still listen to them when I’m down.
I’m still going to show in October in Toronto.
But man has he lost his way, dementia sinking in I’m thinking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGmIL2gtieU
……………………………………………………………
#67 Smoking Man on 07.20.17 at 9:23 pm

@SmokingMan
Tomorrow is going to be epic. Australia Pink Floyed concert at Seneca Niagara. I will be live broadcasting on Paraiscope. Its going to be a combo of Wine, Jack Daniels and a tiny sleeve of acid. Too old for the good shit.
I also have front row seats for KISS in August. I’ll sell them for face value to any hard core blog dog KISS fans. Hell probably give them away for free if you give me a good Im hard done by story. And I dont care if your lieing. Just need you to buy my book and give me a good book review. When I read those orgasmic heaven for me.
Personaly I can’t stand Jean Simmons. Fake Rock and Roll.
……………………………………………………………….
You’re hilarious. First you tell us you Roger Waters has dementia and disown the guy but will go to his shows. Ha, ha ha great balls to stand up to the man and tell him how you feel. Ha, ha, ha still laughing and this from the guy that loves ABBA. WTF? Ha, ha ha go away now and go put some glitter on your face dancing queen. I think you have dementia. lmaf……………….still lmaf…….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0DxOTEadZg

#146 IHCTD9 on 07.21.17 at 10:16 am

#137 Dee on 07.21.17 at 9:09 am
tony the gino is full of crap. Pretending to want to buy. Take your pick. There’s an infinite amount of listings in woodbridge.
_____________________________

Tony sleeps in his Adidas PJ’s with the words “Upa!, Upa!, Upa!” dancing over his head.

#147 IHCTD9 on 07.21.17 at 10:18 am

#132 NoName on 07.21.17 at 8:32 am

At the peak of my unemployment when i woud wake up thirsty as fish with giant headich i wasnt going for covfefe, beer was a only thing that could extenglish a thirst.

Maybe its time to retire, and hand a torch to Emma, and let her leed deplorables. its not gonna be to long before русский leak photos of you having a pink iscream at store…
tick tok, tick tock

#I_Have_Russian_Name
__________________________

Beer? I thought you Ruskies like to drink “Potatoes”?

#148 Prairieboy43 on 07.21.17 at 10:32 am

I had a boss that looked like the dog face. Big grin. Sharp dude, (his motto, buy low, sell high), hope he is not on this blog. Cheers Pat!
PB43

#149 Dups on 07.21.17 at 10:48 am

Canadian CPI report is out…
I am not sure BOC will be in a hurry to continue rate raises this year.

http://www.econoday.com/economic-calendar.aspx?link=http://global-premium.econoday.com/

#150 Lee on 07.21.17 at 10:49 am

#146 IHCTD9,

Not only are there a ton of listings in Woodbridge, many are being listed for the second and third time in a short period of time so you should be able to scrape at least 10% off of any list price and then try to squeeze some more prior to closing.

#151 Millenium on 07.21.17 at 11:03 am

This is interesting:

https://techvibes.com/2017/07/20/toronto-is-the-fastest-growing-tech-market-in-north-america

#152 Victor V on 07.21.17 at 11:17 am

The case for another Bank of Canada rate hike in October grows

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/wrapup-2-strong-canadian-retail-sales-seen-helping-case-for-rate-hike/wcm/b9d53e0b-2ed2-4a0c-a6b3-5c73e125b14c

#153 Tazi Bnu on 07.21.17 at 11:19 am

Trump won’t be impeached, they need the votes and the evidence. They have neither. The rally after the election that everyone calls the “Trump rally” had nothing to do with Trump. Hilary was bending to the pressures to hose businesses and investors, and with her gone they breathed a sigh of relief. Trump has to get somewhere with his “pro-growth” plans for the market to go higher. If not, the market could grind higher on a better economy, which would have nothing to do with Trump. So far the Fed still has a greater effect on the markets than anything else. I would say to stay, or dial down to, normal weight in the US, because positive things are going to happen there despite Trump being “successful” or not. The only worry is the fake news on both sides that could make investors forget their prudent senses. But what do I know, I don’t have gold cuff-links.

‘Hillary relief rally’? Comedy gold. — Garth

#154 Jas on 07.21.17 at 11:24 am

Now the city of Vancouver is going to allow to build second home in the back yard and then allow them to be sold!
Vancouver RE is going to stay strong.

#155 InvestorsFriend on 07.21.17 at 11:40 am

CPI Inflation, the actual report

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/170721/dq170721a-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan

Reading the report might dispel some myths.

Like oh look, they DO include housing costs. And oh look they don’t ignore the volatile categories rather they give figures with and without the more volatile categories.

On the other hand most people don’t want facts they want confirmation that what they already thought was true. And if no confirmation then the data must be FAKE!

#156 AK on 07.21.17 at 11:51 am

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 07.20.17 at 10:57 pm
@#15 AK
“President Trump will be there 8 years in total.”
++++++
“You’re referring to prison? After the impeachment?”
——————————————————————-
President Trump will not be impeached. Wishful thinking on your part.

#157 Ponzius Pilatus on 07.21.17 at 11:54 am

Open Houses are going thru the roof in the Lower Mainland.

#158 waiting on the westcoast on 07.21.17 at 11:55 am

#103 Pete on 07.20.17 at 11:33 pm

“Smok8ngman and the other “anti worker” people who blame city workers for everything. The real theft is the contacting out of construction jobs. The city said it would cost $65000 via bidding process. this is where the real city money waste is at. Remeber this was for a few steps. Imagine the big contracts? City losing way more money and had no control.”

I would say the purchasing procurement, Senior Management and Council are too blame for this. Private contractors who bid outrageously would be removed from the process. Or, the standards and expectations of the job are so large (ie council recommendations/regulations) that it is ludicrous in price.

It is not an anti-worker thing, it’s a let’s be efficient with my tax money thing!

#159 Keith in Calgary on 07.21.17 at 12:01 pm

#143 SimplyPut7

As there is an election coming up in Calgary, you’d think that the favored candidate is named…..FOR RENT…..judging by the number of signs out on peoples yards.

The Herald article says 23,000 empty placesare available for rent……that’s 23,000 landlords (corporate or otherwise) feeding the beast, each and every month.

#160 waiting on the westcoast on 07.21.17 at 12:04 pm

#141 IHCTD9 on 07.21.17 at 10:07 am

“After Wynnes can-kicking cost “reduction” expires, and we all have to start paying back the savings, plus interest – Hydro costs will be in the .35-.40/KWH in 10-15 years or so. If you own a Tesla S at that time, your cost per mile will be about the same as your neighbour who drives a Dodge Ram HEMI.”

Electricity through utilities are going up but electricity from solar panels will put downward pressure on price. Already happening in California. As the grid becomes more decentralized and battery/storage solutions get cheaper, overall electric prices will begin a long decline. Even now, the biggest cost factor in a solar system is the labour to install it.

#161 Other Keith in Calgary on 07.21.17 at 12:07 pm

@#134 Keith in Calgary on 07.21.17 at 9:00 am
Calgary Herald reported that we have a “glut” of property available for rent and sale……..probably the “largest in several decades” (their words).

I guess they want to go out on record with an actual factual genuine news article for once.
——————————————————————

Yet our illustrious Mayor was on CBC radio yesterday talking the census and how he’s “very comfortable” with the vacancy rates in the city. He also mention that rent’s haven’t gone down but seemed ok with it. How long can people afford to let condo’s sit empty while paying $400+ condo fee’s every month and crazy high city taxes!?

#162 the ryguy on 07.21.17 at 12:09 pm

First time poster…

Seriously..EVERYONE has been on wrong on emperor Trump. Media, RNC, DNC, George Clooney and his pals, the pope for crying out loud.

“50-50 he doesn’t finish the term”. Please. The lunacy of average Joes that say garbage like this…like they have any F-in clue. Im telling you right now, if DJT were to be impeached there would be a not so civil war.

I would like to think that a Garth Turner reader would be of above average intelligence. I thought they would be able to see the nonsense the media and Trumps enemies throw out for what it is, pure and simple obstruction.

Do you people not realize the microscope he was/is under? If they had ANYTHING on him, it would have come out already. The best they could do was him saying “grab her by the p*ssy”. Wow! A high profile billionaire being successful with the ladies, color me shocked. Stop with the aghast pearl clutching and grow up.

Any Canadian bashing Trump needs to give their head a shake. Clinton said she would (paraphrasing here) “take in as many refugees as necessary”…she’s a Merkel clone.
Don’t kid yourself, our substitute drama teacher PM would have opened the flood gates to the 3rd world too. I will admit I have no “evidence”, but some things you just know. You think people in Italy or Greece give a crap about their house price right now? What about in 3 years? 5 years? 10?

Wake up sheep. DJT is the best thing to happen to the world in an impossibly long time. He can’t solve every problem but hopefully enough people are realizing what an absolute monstrosity the current criminals are in their governments.

#163 Mark on 07.21.17 at 12:29 pm

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/cpis01a-eng.htm

Another month of consumer price deflation (prices fell by 0.1%). YoY inflation now 1.0% and dropping fast.

#164 jess on 07.21.17 at 12:31 pm

“His (trump) primary frustration centers on why allegations that his campaign coordinated with Russia should spread into scrutinizing many years of Trump dealmaking.”

“The power to pardon is granted to the president in Article II, Section 2, of the Constitution, which gives the commander in chief the power to “grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.” That means pardon authority extends to federal criminal prosecution but not to state level or impeachment inquiries.” (Washington post)

#165 jess on 07.21.17 at 12:38 pm

nytimes
…”The Justice Department has explicit rules about what constitutes a conflict of interest. Prosecutors may not participate in investigations if they have “a personal or political relationship” with the subject of the case. Making campaign donations is not included on the list of things that would create a “political relationship.”

https://www.justice.gov/jmd/government-ethics-outline

Trump Takes Out After Special Prosecutor Mueller, Dumps on Sessions and the Justice Department
Why Trump Has a Basic Problem with the Constitution Can You Say, ‘Emoluments’?
Government Ethics Chief Quits

Trump’s Harshest Official Critic Says Conflict Rules Aren’t Strong Enough to Reign In This White House

At Least 29 States Say They Won’t Turn Over Voter Information

https://www.dcreport.org/2017/07/21/a-looming-showdown/

#166 oncebittwiceshy on 07.21.17 at 12:45 pm

#113 Reality Check on Reality Check

“While everyone appreciates your data, the reality is that your site only tracks asking prices – NOT sold prices. Sold prices is where the real information is at. The up and down arrows are simply cases where people priced too high and realized it or too low – just outliers that’s all.

Its not an accurate reflection of the market.”

Lol, you guys are so transparent that I don’t know why I bother responding to your inane commentary.

Myrealtycheck has been showing the same downwards movement for the past several months. That is called a trend.

If the market is doing so well then why are you here trying to debate the trend. Simply post about the latest bidding wars and auctions that aren’t happening any more. Oh right, another indicator.

Stop, think, think again and then write.

#167 Tazi Bnu on 07.21.17 at 12:54 pm

‘Hillary relief rally’? Comedy gold. — Garth
____________________________________________

What do you think caused that rally because it wasn’t
belief in Trump. People have very low hopes of Trump doing anything back in April, so the market should have corrected already if that’s what made the rally. I also don’t think deplorables have enough money to influence the market meaningfully.

I like the Andex chart way of looking at politics, that it doesn’t really matter who’s in power.

#168 crossbordershopper on 07.21.17 at 1:07 pm

canada is a joke, go to the usa. follow your dreams, canada will rob you of your destiny. if it doesnt work out for you you can simply come back. For 80% of people in Canada there is no difference if you work or not. you end up cashing the goverment cheque at 65.
The government up here, the taxes ,the regulations, etc, will keep you down lots of people have their hand out here,
if you become successfull due to hard work in the USA you have a better chance of keeping it, if it doesnt work out, come back, if you get sick come back,
if your poor, live six months in florida in a nice trailer park, you can get one for like 20 grand, not to bad looking.

i dont know why anyone really lives here. working hard for what.

#169 jess on 07.21.17 at 1:15 pm

https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/982826/download
=================
a dead canadian man what secrets are on his unencryted computer

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/alphabay-largest-online-dark-market-shut-down

fully anonymous, and virtually untraceable?
the darknet market site Alphabay began offering its thousands of vendors the option to accept Monero as an alternative to Bitcoin
https://www.wired.com/story/alphabay-hansa-takedown-dark-web-trap/

#170 Spicey Resigns on 07.21.17 at 1:32 pm

Melissa McCarthy’s out of a job! Sad!

She’ll likely win an Emmy this year for her portrayal of Sean Spicer on SNL.

#171 jess on 07.21.17 at 1:46 pm

maybe he chew less gum

Richard Madan says the New York Times is reporting Press Secretary Sean Spicer has resigned from his position in the Trump administration

#172 waiting on the westcoast on 07.21.17 at 1:54 pm

From Bloomberg article on increasing inflation in Canada…

“Canada’s core consumer prices and retail sales came in faster than expected, signaling that overall inflation may turn around to clear the way for another rate increase this year.”

and…

“Sales volumes, a better guide to economic growth because it strips out price swings, are up 6.4 percent from a year earlier, the largest rise since 2010.

The momentum was enough for investors to look beyond the overall inflation rate falling to 1 percent in June, the slowest since October 2015. That’s because several key items the Bank of Canada identified as temporary sources of weakness firmed up in June.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-21/canada-1-inflation-is-slowest-since-october-2015-key-takeaways

#173 Doug in London on 07.21.17 at 2:25 pm

So stocks in the NYSE or NASDAQ could have a price correction? Great, I like Boxing Day sales but don’t want to wait around until Dec. 26. Bring it on!

#174 Victor V on 07.21.17 at 2:28 pm

Toronto housing chill extends into mid-July with sales sinking 39.3%

http://www.bnn.ca/toronto-housing-chill-extends-into-mid-july-with-sales-sinking-39-3-1.810388

The great slide in Toronto housing accelerated into July with the average sale price down 17 per cent from the frenzied record highs of the spring.

The Toronto Real Estate Board’s mid-month numbers, provided to realtors but viewed by BNN, show an average sale price of $760,356 during the first 14 days of this month. That’s a more than $159,000 discount compared to the average sale price of $919,589 when the market hit its peak in April.

#175 AGuyInVancouver on 07.21.17 at 2:39 pm

#168 crossbordershopper
Right. Maybe you should talk to some of those poor people in trailer parks and ask how their medical copays are (or how much worse they might be if the GOP gets their way). Stay out of the flying bullets when you go down to get cheap cheese south of the border, don’t want to be one of those 13,000+ killed in the USA by guns every year.

#176 A Reply to #125 fancy_pants on 07.21.17 at 2:47 pm

“Any risk [T]rump generates is from draining the swamp….”

Please explain to me how Trump’s appointment of six Goldman Sachs executives to his administration is “draining the swamp”. What does “draining the swamp” mean to you?

Listen carefully to the words coming out of Trump’s very own mouth in the video from the link below.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/15/investing/goldman-sachs-jim-donovan-trump-treasury-deputy-secretary/index.html

#177 Asterix1 on 07.21.17 at 2:50 pm

And today’s award for “Worst journalist piece of real estate propaganda” goes to (drum roll…….)

The TORONTO STAR, and its “journalist” Tess Kalinowski.

https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2017/07/21/toronto-housing-markets-downturn-may-have-an-upside.html

Article full of quotes from mostly biased realtors:

“Soper (Royal LePage CEO) says it’s not self-interest as a realtor that leads him to believe that Toronto’s slumped market will recover in the same way as Vancouver’s has”.

After reading this article, you would think that its a good idea to buy right now! Trash journalism! This correction is not going to end soon. It shall become a crash in many areas.

#178 Check Your Reality on 07.21.17 at 2:53 pm

#166 oncebittwiceshy on 07.21.17 at 12:45 pm
#113 Reality Check on Reality Check

“While everyone appreciates your data, the reality is that your site only tracks asking prices – NOT sold prices. Sold prices is where the real information is at. The up and down arrows are simply cases where people priced too high and realized it or too low – just outliers that’s all.

Its not an accurate reflection of the market.”

Lol, you guys are so transparent that I don’t know why I bother responding to your inane commentary.

Myrealtycheck has been showing the same downwards movement for the past several months. That is called a trend.

If the market is doing so well then why are you here trying to debate the trend. Simply post about the latest bidding wars and auctions that aren’t happening any more. Oh right, another indicator.

Stop, think, think again and then write.

—–
Yes, its a trend – but its a trend that does not have value.

Price adjustments do not have a correlation to sales or average sold prices. By simply tracking the small percentage of homes with ‘price adjustments’, you are capturing a tiny tiny segment of the market. Its not even a indication of market sentiment.

In the majority of cases, the sellers are delusional with their first asking price and making adjustments downwards.

For those houses showing asking price increases, it could be because: a low price did not spark a bidding war; their neighbour just sold at an increased price and they are ‘catching up’; a new realtor tells them to increase the price after the previous realtor’s approach did not work; etc.

Again, asking price changes are anomalies and reflect only a fraction of available homes for sale.

Perhaps you need to stop, think and then write.

#179 Nemesis on 07.21.17 at 3:07 pm

#133ImposterAlert… #[email protected]?

[NoteToGT: Not to worry… the BakerStreetIrregulars are on it: http://map.norsecorp.com/ ]

#180 Your fired on 07.21.17 at 3:13 pm

#162 the ryguy on 07.21.17 at 12:09 pm

First time poster…

Seriously..EVERYONE has been on wrong on emperor Trump. Media, RNC, DNC, George Clooney and his pals, the pope for crying out loud.

“50-50 he doesn’t finish the term”. Please. The lunacy of average Joes that say garbage like this…like they have any F-in clue. Im telling you right now, if DJT were to be impeached there would be a not so civil war.

I would like to think that a Garth Turner reader would be of above average intelligence. I thought they would be able to see the nonsense the media and Trumps enemies throw out for what it is, pure and simple obstruction.

Do you people not realize the microscope he was/is under? If they had ANYTHING on him, it would have come out already. The best they could do was him saying “grab her by the p*ssy”. Wow! A high profile billionaire being successful with the ladies, color me shocked. Stop with the aghast pearl clutching and grow up.

Any Canadian bashing Trump needs to give their head a shake. Clinton said she would (paraphrasing here) “take in as many refugees as necessary”…she’s a Merkel clone.
Don’t kid yourself, our substitute drama teacher PM would have opened the flood gates to the 3rd world too. I will admit I have no “evidence”, but some things you just know. You think people in Italy or Greece give a crap about their house price right now? What about in 3 years? 5 years? 10?

Wake up sheep. DJT is the best thing to happen to the world in an impossibly long time. He can’t solve every problem but hopefully enough people are realizing what an absolute monstrosity the current criminals are in their governments.
…………………………………………………………………..
Ha first time and last time.
DJT is a real piece of work, a shady billionaire who has never learned how to earn what he desires by hard work instead of bullying or buying his way to success. Now give your head a shake and look yourself in the mirror and then say Donald J Trump is the best thing to happen to the world in an impossibly long time, and if you can still stand to look at yourself without guilt or taking a shower then good luck! The guy is quite simply a dick.

#181 Entrepreneur on 07.21.17 at 3:34 pm

And don’t forget the people of the States voted him in and the reason why? To have their voices heard.

And to battle out of this political mess that they are in (and many other countries like us) it has to get real ugly, exposure and greed.

And Trump is for the people of U.S.A. and not only for the Republican voters but Democrat voters too. He is fighting for the Nation.

Make me wonder if the realtors were the ones who upped the percentage so the housing market would flourish, #71 The Realtors Were Right.” Noticed realtors used to buy around here then sold and the more that to that, up the percentage in the housing pie graph.

Prices around here mid-island, small community the house prices have shot $100,000. over assessment value (what happens when the prices go down and buyer stuck with the difference). And we are allowed to build a carriage house in the backyard, even on a small lot (so town leaders still want the show to continue).

A majority of voters did not select Trump. Careful with your rewrite of history. — Garth

#182 NO OSFI Market Killer Changers Bears on 07.21.17 at 3:39 pm

Oh my, it looks like the much heralded next market killer – the supposedly a ‘done deal’ on OSFI changes – will not take place. As predicted – as so expected.

Whenever this blog heralds the next federal or provincial measure to cool the market as a market killer, nothing happens or changes. Its like a jinx.

The five year fixed rate qualifying stress test was supposed to be a ‘millenial moister market killer’ knocking out 15-20% of the buyers. And how did that works out? Right, prices went through the roof.

The ‘all but done’ consultations on OFSI changes were going to cream the market even further by making those with 20% or more in equity stress test at the 5 year rates. Looks like that initiative is now dead.

For bears in Vancouver, there is no saviour coming. All the measures to cool the market have either inflated prices or been completely ineffective.

Canada will once again become the tale of two cities – TO going back to more normal price gains while Vancouver continues its 10 year disconnect from local incomes as prices keep going up and up and up…

See, the feds only care when its the GTA. All it took was a year of 30% price gains in the GTA and the feds looked to intervene. Meanwhile, Vancouver and its surrounding communities have had a 60% increase over three years and a 10 year housing crisis with zero thought of intervening from the feds.

You are on your own BC. Now that the GTA is correcting, no need for the feds to do anything to help Vancouver….

Oh Vancouver and BC bears, you really missed out on a lifetime opportunity.

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/collapse-in-toronto-home-prices-pressures-ottawa-to-hold-off-tightening/wcm/1bd4443b-0387-45c1-ad32-bd2edbdf3eff

There has been no stated change in OFSI’s intentions. — Garth

#183 Cdn Mom on 07.21.17 at 3:57 pm

#160 waiting on the westcoast on 07.21.17 at 12:04 pm
#141 IHCTD9 on 07.21.17 at 10:07 am
“After Wynnes can-kicking cost “reduction” expires, and we all have to start paying back the savings, plus interest – Hydro costs will be in the .35-.40/KWH in 10-15 years or so. If you own a Tesla S at that time, your cost per mile will be about the same as your neighbour who drives a Dodge Ram HEMI.”
Electricity through utilities are going up but electricity from solar panels will put downward pressure on price. Already happening in California. As the grid becomes more decentralized and battery/storage solutions get cheaper, overall electric prices will begin a long decline. Even now, the biggest cost factor in a solar system is the labour to install it.
………..

Solar panels….roflmao

My Ontario area got 14 FEET of snow this past winter (NOT a typo, 14 feet). How much cloud cover do you figure comes with that much snow? We’ve only had about 7 sunny days here since June 1, but a hell of a lot of rain. Almost feel like I’m living back in BC!

Electricity from solar panels will put downward pressure on nothing but your roof and bank account in most of Canada, unless you have some Samung-like energy contract with the Ontario government.

You just keep promoting that, though, cuz I own lithium stock. lol

#184 the ryguy on 07.21.17 at 4:24 pm

#180
Ha first time and last time.
DJT is a real piece of work, a shady billionaire who has never learned how to earn what he desires by hard work instead of bullying or buying his way to success. Now give your head a shake and look yourself in the mirror and then say Donald J Trump is the best thing to happen to the world in an impossibly long time, and if you can still stand to look at yourself without guilt or taking a shower then good luck! The guy is quite simply a dick.

________________________________________

Great arguments!

How could I even dispute you with all that reason & evidence?

#185 oncebittwiceshy on 07.21.17 at 4:28 pm

Check your reality: “Price adjustments do not have a correlation to sales or average sold prices. By simply tracking the small percentage of homes with ‘price adjustments’, you are capturing a tiny tiny segment of the market. Its not even a indication of market sentiment.”

I can certainly appreciate that point of view, Check, however the only somewhat meaningful analysis that you are going to get regarding Vancouver RE is going to be after the fact. Now, that is fine if you are in a home, have lots of money and have no plans of selling in the next 5 yrs but when the tide turns, it can be very challenging and you have to look for indicators.

Case in point, when you bought your home, what indicators did you look at? Zolo has been mentioned, myrealtycheck has been mentioned, market affecting legislation has been mentioned, Garth has a commentary on the current market each week, as well as Flop’s posting of numerous price drops. That has all been on this blog. When did you start reading this blog??

Now, Global TV and the Vancouver Sun also report on Vancouver real estate and apparently mainstream reporting is what most people watch. The only problem is that it will not make the news unless it is an extreme. The market has either taken off with bidding wars or it has crashed. There is no news in a balanced market. The impact of the .25% prime rate increase is a case in point regarding the mainstream reporting.

If I’m a new buyer with 5% down, the last thing I want to hear on the news 3 months after I purchased is that the housing market in Vancouver has fallen off the rails with average price drops of 10 to 15%. Never mind the fear of renewal, who the hell wants to pay $800,000 when 3 months later the same home is $680,000.

#186 Ole Doberman on 07.21.17 at 4:28 pm

#143 SimplyPut7 on 07.21.17 at 10:11 am

#134 Keith in Calgary on 07.21.17 at 9:00 am

No use lying anymore, we can all see the empty homes being listed for sale online. I wonder how long it will take Toronto and the surrounding areas to admit they have the same problem.

http://calgaryherald.com/business/local-business/city-census-suggests-calgarys-housing-glut-highest-in-decades
——————————————————-
The last line is interesting “Every indicator is showing that things have bottomed and bounced off the bottom,” Dhillon said. “The challenge is, how long will it take to absorb the vacant units?”

Gartho how will this work in a rising interest rate environment?

#187 Ole Doberman on 07.21.17 at 4:31 pm

#173 Doug in London on 07.21.17 at 2:25 pm

So stocks in the NYSE or NASDAQ could have a price correction? Great, I like Boxing Day sales but don’t want to wait around until Dec. 26. Bring it on!
———————————————————
This will be one of those times in history that everyone is waiting for the correction that never comes, only to miss one of the biggest rallies in history when the DOW hits 40,000.

Then they’ll jump in at the top, like RE in Toronto.

#188 Nemesis on 07.21.17 at 5:02 pm

#FridayFun,Or… #NoBieberForYou!…

[SCMP] – Why Justin Bieber is banned from performing in China: Beijing’s culture bureau explains that the Canadian popstar was barred because of his previous ‘bad behaviour’ which ‘caused public dissatisfaction’

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2103644/why-justin-bieber-banned-performing-china

#189 Ronaldo on 07.21.17 at 5:06 pm

#161 Other Keith in Calgary

”How long can people afford to let condo’s sit empty while paying $400+ condo fee’s every month and crazy high city taxes!?”

Don’t have the figures but would suspect that many of these empty units are new and unsold. We had a similar situation in the Okanagan back in the early 90’s recession where overbuilding created a huge glut of townhome and apartment condos which sat boarded up for a few years while others that were completed were sold at basically cost just so the developers could get out from under them. Some developments took 4 years or more to sell out. Wasn’t pretty.

#190 Presidential Pardons on 07.21.17 at 5:21 pm

This, if true, has got to be the most inane question Trump has ever asked:

“Donald Trump asks lawyers about powers to pardon himself and his children in Russia probe, report reveals….

“Some note that the Constitution does not explicitly prohibit a president from pardoning himself. On the other side, experts say that by definition a pardon is something you can only give to someone else. There is also a common-law canon that prohibits individuals from serving as a judge in their own case. ‘For example, we would not allow a judge to preside over his or her own trial,’ Kalt said.”

Simply hilarious!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-pardon-robert-s-mueller-special-counsel-russia-a7852181.html

#191 waiting on the westcoast on 07.21.17 at 5:21 pm

Good conclusion on staircase-gate in Toronto…

https://news.google.ca/news/amp?caurl=http%3A%2F%2Fglobalnews.ca%2Fnews%2F3614167%2Ftom-riley-park-stairs-removed-toronto%2F#pt0-586946

#192 NO OSFI Market Killer Changers Bears on 07.21.17 at 5:23 pm

#182 NO OSFI Market Killer Changers Bears on 07.21.17 at 3:39 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/collapse-in-toronto-home-prices-pressures-ottawa-to-hold-off-tightening/wcm/1bd4443b-0387-45c1-ad32-bd2edbdf3eff

There has been no stated change in OFSI’s intentions. — Garth

——–

For now. But the odds are much better now that this will not be implemented as the feds can now point the finger to Ontario’s provincial measures as killing the market if there is any public blowback.

And a lot can happen in the 3+ months between now and October implementation especially if the price declines wipe out an entire year’s of gains.

We know this will not be implemented for political reasons now…

#193 waiting on the westcoast on 07.21.17 at 5:27 pm

Hey CDN MOM,

Germany gets more cloud cover than anywhere except Vancouver but generates significant electricity from solar. The difference in sun constitutes only a 20% variability in performance.

Although 14′ of snow would be a problem… Maybe you can package it up for a water company. ;-)

#194 Fran Deck Jr. on 07.21.17 at 5:27 pm

#181
“A majority of voters did not select Trump. Careful with your rewrite of history.” Garth

Are you including those millions of votes from illegals who were transported across state lines to support Clinton?

I’m pretty sure that won’t happen again …

Trump is the only leader who is standing up to the evil globalists … and the DOW just keeps climbing higher and higher.

W I N N I N G

Ah yes, the millions of pretend people. Forgot about them. — Garth

#195 Check Your Reality on 07.21.17 at 5:35 pm

#185 oncebittwiceshy on 07.21.17 at 4:28 pm

Case in point, when you bought your home, what indicators did you look at?
—–

I rent.

I have followed all that you have described – interest rates, macro economic outlooks, zolo, ruling government changes and their platforms, internal reports (IMF), policy and regulatory and legislative changes at the provincial and federal level, alternative leading practices, media (which did not report on anything as RE is the major sponsor left for newspapers), comparative models in the US, UK, Australia, Chinese capital trends, price to rent ratios, price to local income ratios, and the list goes on..

All have been terribly and utterly wrong in predicting the demise of the RE market, and as such, all sources have raised unwarranted red flags – unwarranted to date that is.

A 13 year bull run in places like Vancouver has outwitted, outlived, and outgunned all modes of analysis and critical thinking in real estate. Only realtors, the uneducated dopes lambasted on here, were right. Let that one sink in.

The above is undeniable…

#196 waiting on the westcoast on 07.21.17 at 6:17 pm

Check your reality says…

“A 13 year bull run in places like Vancouver has outwitted, outlived, and outgunned all modes of analysis and critical thinking in real estate. Only realtors, the uneducated dopes lambasted on here, were right. Let that one sink in.

So sad, so true… Thanks for rubbing salt in the wound… ;-)

The above is undeniable…”

#197 dead.cat.bouce on 07.21.17 at 7:08 pm

#57 Fugget About It on 07.20.17 at 8:44 pm
Tony the Gino
Don’t believe what he says. No movement in Woodbridge. No one is buying and alot of for sale signs.
Tony the Gino is better known, in our Woodbridge neighbourhood, as Anthony the Clown. He is in his 40’s and lives with his elderly parents, who are retired and give him an allowance of $100 every week, really.
In the warmer months you can see him walking up and down the street with flip flops, a white sleeveless undershirt, with splattered pasta sauce, tucked into his Adidas polyester blue short shorts with the white vertical stripe on either side. On Sunday he wears his finest outfit, white shoes, black capri pants, and a funky blue short sleeve shirt. He always wears a couple of “gold” necklaces and a pinky ring.
In the colder months, he wears construction boots with the steel toes showing and yes, he wears the Anthony man suit, like every good Gino does. His man suit consists of a 2 pc Adidas blue polyester track suit, with the white stripe on either side.
Welcome to our neighbourhood in Woodbridge and our very own clown, Anthony, aka “Tony the Gino”! Enjoy.
—————————————————————–
lol. post some pictures.

#198 Curious on 07.21.17 at 9:36 pm

Just wondering if the house prices are going to crumble in Edmonton???

#199 telefunken on 07.21.17 at 10:45 pm

Now that the economy rocks…The odds of a second interest rate increase in 2017 shot up dramatically

The economy that’s been substantially fuelled by RE-related industries (comprising a larger percentage of GDP than ever before) and by Canucks borrowing & blowing cheap money like there’s no tomorrow.

If rates rise enough to matter, then the economy is going to stall or edge into recession, and subsequent rate rises will likewise stall.

#200 telefunken on 07.21.17 at 11:05 pm

As for Trump, his sole achievement thus far has been to founder the most fractious and chaotic administration in living memory.

All that Trump’s achieved so far: questionable firings, further investigations, untimely resignations, and failed bills.

Trump can’t even get sufficient consensus within the Republican party to get his health bill passed. Barely half a year in, and he’s already a lame duck president.

Believing he’s somehow going to turn that all around is just wishful thinking.

#201 Doug in London on 07.21.17 at 11:14 pm

@Ole Doberman, post #187:
Wrong! I’m already heavily invested in the stocks and equity ETFs in my US trading account. I bought a lot of these stocks and ETFs already when they were on sale and not at the top of the market. If stocks go up more, that’s fine with me. I’ll sell some off and increase my exposure to fixed income ETFs. If they drop I’ll buy more stocks and equity ETFs. As I’ve said many, many, many, many, many, many, many, many, many times here before, the object is to invest like a governor that gives the engine more fuel/air mixture when the speed drops, and less when it increases. It’s all so simple.

#202 Skip Breakfast on 07.22.17 at 9:27 am

Garth, your predictions when it comes to Trump have been deplorable. How many times does a smart man have to be wrong before he realizes he’s being a moron? I’ll continue reading your blog to find out. All my love, A Deplorable

Trump is unpredictable. Exactly why he should not be president. — Garth

#203 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 07.22.17 at 10:47 am

NO OSFI Market Killer Changers Bears on 07.21.17 at 5:23 pm
#182 NO OSFI Market Killer Changers Bears on 07.21.17 at 3:39 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/collapse-in-toronto-home-prices-pressures-ottawa-to-hold-off-tightening/wcm/1bd4443b-0387-45c1-ad32-bd2edbdf3eff

There has been no stated change in OFSI’s intentions. — Garth

——–

For now. But the odds are much better now that this will not be implemented as the feds can now point the finger to Ontario’s provincial measures as killing the market if there is any public blowback.

And a lot can happen in the 3+ months between now and October implementation especially if the price declines wipe out an entire year’s of gains.

We know this will not be implemented for political reasons now…

Like Garth said, OSFI has made no intentions to change. The above article is realtor propaganda of HOPE. TPTB didnt make changes to take down this housing bubble due to fraudulent mortgages just to allow it to continue. If the housing market was so strong on fundamentals you don’t have to worry. Why all the worry? Changes will go through and Prices will revert back to historical mean average. OSFI will not change their minds and hoping they will is laughable. Happy Housing Crash Everyone ! :-)

#204 jess on 07.22.17 at 2:05 pm

Sirota: Where does the term “Chickenshit Club” come from?

Eisinger: That term comes from Jim Comey. Everybody knows him as the man who was fired by FBI director by Donald Trump. Before he was in that role, 15 years ago, he became the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District. The Southern District was the premier office with the hottest-shot prosecutors. He gathered them all together in a room, and he looks them over, and he says, “How many of you guys have never lost a case?” A bunch of hands shoot up. These are the best of the best of the best. He says, “Me and my buddies have a name for you guys. You guys are the chickenshit club.” The hands go back down, and they’re a little sheepish about bragging.”

Essentially, what he’s saying is, “You are not about winning. Your job is about justice. You’re not a sports team that needs an undefeated record. What you need to do is not try to pick off the low-hanging fruit, but go for the most ambitious cases you can, the worst people, the most powerful bad guys. That’s what society demands of you.”

#205 Jennifer on 07.24.17 at 3:34 pm

“Some months ago the fancy, trophy wife-owning, Porsche-driving, gay sock-wearing, omniscient portfolio manager dudes I work with (who are allowed to blog here occasionally, just to keep them real) had a message.”

So men who have trophy wives OWN them? I thought we moved away from the archaic treatment of women as property a long time ago. This extends to the trophy wife. Sure, she wouldn’t be in the marriage if it weren’t for the money, but this doesn’t make her the property of her rich spouse. C’mon Garth. I know it was probably a slip, but you’re better than that.

You are not too up on sarcasm, I see. — Garth