Quelle difference a day makes. Yesterday this blog suggested the cost of money will be going up in Canada a lot sooner than your 26-year-old, condo-lovin’ daughter ever expected. October probably. September maybe.
But here we are 24 hours later and markets are talking July. The 14th. Three weeks from now. The odds of a Bank of Canada increase then have exploded higher to 50%. That doesn’t mean it’ll happen, but it’s sure a quantum leap from, say, last week.
This popped last night when the contents of a meeting between the central bank head, the federal finance minister and all the provincial treasurers leaked out. Stephen Poloz was there to yak about the threat of a housing downturn, given the certainty that interest rates will soon be going up. “It’s something that’s he watching as a risk to the economy,” Bill Morneau said.
A risk? That’s putting it mildly. With about 20% of our GDP related to housing and family debt off the charts, higher interest rates will be as painful as they are inevitable. How much? The indie Parliamentary Budget Office started to answer that in a report issued just hours after Poloz and Morneau held their conference. The PBO points out we voracious little beavs have borrowed so much (while our incomes have flatlined) that the family debt service ratio has climbed above the 25-year average. That’s a big deal since interest rates are in the ditch, and in 1995 a five-year mortgage cost 10.6%. In fact the 25-year average is 6%. Tell your kid that.
So if we’re already in the soup at today’s rate levels, just imagine what the consequences would be if we added, say 2% or 3% on top of current rates.
“Based on PBO’s projection,” the report says, “the financial vulnerability of the average household would rise to levels beyond historical experience. Households that are required to devote a substantial portion of their disposable income to service their debts are vulnerable to adverse income and interest-rate shocks, and are more likely to be delinquent in their debt payments.”
In short, 2.5% mortgages are, like this blog, a freak of nature. Abnormal. If you budget the next five of ten years of your life based on that, you’ll regret it. So stop. The PBO is estimating the central bank rate, now 0.5%, will be going up six-fold within the next two-and-a-half year. But, it could be more. Mr. Trump will have a fair amount of influence over that.
Meanwhile, time for another small update on the housing market. No gutters running red yet, but the GTA is no longer in a house porn mood. According to Realosophy, sales continue to croak. In the first week of this month detached deals collapsed 44% year/year while 22% fewer condos changed hands. Last week was worse – the declines were 47% and 24% respectively – and this is at a time when no interest rates have yet increased.
As previously reported, in May there was a 20% sales plop, which led to a 6% monthly price decline. The next numbers are due out in about 14 days, and they will be telling. Here are the charts for detached and condo results the company just tweeted out:
Weekly detached sales tumble 47% in GTA
Condo transactions decline 24%
Finally, a word about poor BC.
The province’s realtors just won’t quit, and this week forecast a 4.2% surge in Van prices next year, along with a 5% swell across the province. They claim the impact of provincial moves to cool the market is being overcome and – despite a lefty, interventionist government about to take office plus looming rate hikes – everything is returning to normal. In other words, buy now, kids, or buy never. And they are.
Bottom line: things may hit the fan soon. You might wish to buy a slicker.
225 comments ↓
A HOUSING BOOM IS ALWAYS FOLLOWED BY A HOUSING BUST
THE BASIC SEQUENCE OF EVENTS OF THE HOUSING BOOM – BUST CYCLE
THE BOOM:
* Policymakers dramatically lower mortgage lending standards (stimulate) with the intention of bloating house prices.
* Prices skyrocket. The party is on. Gains in house prices far outstrip gains in incomes, creating weak air pockets of price support that will have no chance of stopping the inevitable price decline as the boom turns to bust.
* Home ownership levels surge, dramatic increases are seen in real estate investment, speculation, construction activity and HELOCs.
* Household debt-to-income levels skyrocket, creating a threat to the economy that only goes away after the inevitable price bust plays out and households deleverage.
* The mainstream media and real estate “professionals” ignore the financial risks involved with taking on a mortgage. Instead they choose to spread (often false) FOMO information that the uninformed and naïve herd readily takes as fact.
* Policymakers, bankers, economists, etc. deny the existence of a country-wide housing bubble, or only admit at the peak that bubbles exist in certain cities, and only as a result of recent activity, which they are not responsible for in any way.
* With lending standards already relaxed, more stimulus (example: BC’s down payment loan program) is applied to the housing market in an attempt to keep the party going and to avoid the inevitable. Handing out even more mortgages like candy to applicants with no money and poor credit scores further weakens the underlying price support structure of the housing market, which, of course, leads to big problems later.
* Adding more and more new stimulus to the housing market works for some time… until it doesn’t.
* The economy becomes more and more dependent on abnormally high levels of activity in housing, making it increasingly unhealthy. Major problems with the economy don’t become apparent until house prices stop rising.
* As affordability continues to sink, mortgage broker-assisted mortgage fraud rears its ugly head (in a lot of cases), allowing even more applicants with no money and low credit scores to get into mortgages at extremely bloated prices (as if the lax lending standards weren’t risky enough already).
* Policymakers ignore this mortgage fraud until mortgage lenders start to implode (liar loans help to push prices higher after all).
* Highly leveraged speculation (gambling) increases dramatically as prices soar toward the peak and homes are treated as commodities.
(continued)
THE BUST:
* House prices stop rising as the bubble reaches its maximum size. Then prices begin to fall. Each city has a different start date, but end up recording the biggest yearly price drops in the years that all cities experience falling prices together.
* After house prices have been in decline for some time and the public is well aware of it, the real estate industry finally acknowledges that prices have fallen. This admission is immediately followed by the claim that the price bottom has been reached. This, of course, is quickly proven false by the market. For those in the industry, every day is the price bottom. The herd learns to ignore their sales pitch.
* Policymakers do everything they can to limit the depth of the price decline, but their efforts are futile as the powerful momentum of the correction is unstoppable. In most cases, prices fall back to the level where the bubble started (approximately).
* Liar loans and highly-leveraged speculation played a big role in bloating prices in some cities which dramatically weakened the underlying price support structure of those markets. Cities that experienced the highest levels of speculation end up experiencing particularly brutal price busts.
* For years the economy had been artificially boosted by the effects of rising house prices. That ends. The party ends. The economy is crushed by the effects of falling home prices.
* The multi-year price decline squashes the economy as the wealth effect reverses, jobs are lost and incomes fall (in a lot of cases). Consumer spending (which accounts for two-thirds of the Canadian economy) plunges.
* A dramatically weakened economy leads to further drops in house prices. The (styrofoam) price support structure of the market – based on lax lending standards, liar loans and highly leveraged speculation – simply has no ability to hold off the multibillion ton weight of the price decline.
* The multi-year price correction finally hits bottom, but not before overcorrecting (in most cases).
* The correction is much deeper than almost anyone could have imagined, leaving a significant chunk of households in financial ruin. Some will be ruined for life.
* After denying the existence of a housing bubble for years before it finally peaked, policymakers, who had repeatedly calmed the herd by claiming they could engineer a soft landing, realize that no amount of stimulative policy could have prevented the bust part of the boom-bust cycle (the hard landing).
* Policymakers blame speculation and other things for the bust and claim that nobody could have seen it coming.
* Those who saw it coming and put their buying plans on hold have plenty of time to buy (when they feel like it) at shockingly lower price levels – price levels that are in line with their market’s long-term mean. Price levels that are, once again, supported by economic fundamentals.
Rates are going up and how will that affect delinquincies? Invest in apartment blocks because people will be moving out of homes and into suites? Add a nice sum to preferreds? Need some advice on how to adjust to higher rates for the Maples among us Mr Garth Beaver Turner!
Mid-month data from TREB apparently shows a 9.1% price drop in the GTA compared with the first two weeks of May… Oooof
https://twitter.com/areacode416/status/877186992190218240
I think my mid-September we will know how bad it will get.
Fed, BoC raising rates; Brady/Ryan preaching BAT is “critical” with 0% deductibility on imports (ouch AB oil exports) and repatriating supply chains incl. auto, 416 RE economic activity greatly diminished, YVR RE still in negative price change territory AND listings set to expire by mid-August to mid-September w/price drops?
VIX > 11, oil price down, 5s 30s 1% spread…latter creating some doomer jitters south of the border as to a looming US recession.
Not looking good for us.
I agree Garth, not looking good for those that have all of their wealth primarily in RE and/or with high debt loads.
would I touch BC real estate at this juncture
it could double or triple or go down by half or more… nobody has any idea and the projects are sprouting everywhere with new supply coming online galore
supply is not the issue in the 604
build it and they will come has always been the meme
haven’t seen any place in the world where that has been more true than here
who is coming and why?
let’s talk about the weather instead…
Meanwhile, Realtors are more arrogant and presumptuous than ever before.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BVh9SCNA7iH/
Barf.
The RE Ponzi scheme is done
Very likely to see a short term stock market panic between July 10-August 31
15-20% drop will likely be a great buying opp
Could be debt ceiling shutdown , trump impeachment process started or more likely as of today a massive attack on North Korea
US is rolling over into recession
Between 2018-2020 DOW 40k, gold 4-5k and fixed 5 yr mortgage possibly 5-6% in 2020
Long term bond prices and stock prices and many RE markets are at or near all time highs
Much of our GDP/income and tax revenues and asset prices are all driven by massive debt bubbles
Now it’s lights out with a sovereign debt crisis growing by the day. Puerto Rico just got taken down and Illinois is next
Most of Europe including Italy , France and Germany are next by 2020 then Japan and Canada
What were these PhD economists and central bankers and corrupt politicians thinking ?
Will a stock market up 100% mean anything to you when your cap gain tax is 80% and your currency is down 50%?
Stagflationary depression folks
Then war
The BC realtors are encouraging people to jump into real estate, now that the market has proven that it is really different here. (ain’t nothing slowing this thang down, taxes, interest hikes you name it) People fearing a correction or hoping for a correction have probably given up, and went with the real estate stats which probably emboldened them beyond any reasonable doubt.
.
No crash until prices down to 2014 summer levels. even those prices were supposed to crash, but they went up.
Homes selling like hot cases in Van suburbs. Need a 30% crash to be back to 2014 summer levels – never going to happen. Never.
First
I hope interest rates go up in Canada
#203 Smoking Man on 06.20.17 at 4:41 pm
Whos coming to my ice cream shop in the islands?
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will you have rum ‘n raisan ?
The guy in todays photo looks like the guy in Oakville who was charged with hacking.
Why do the Condo transactions in the graph track so well year-to-year at the 28th of April, and the 26th of May? Are Easter and Victoria Day condo-buying holidays?
Or is it because middle-class suburbanites don’t know what to do with themselves on long weekends, and so engage in risky, thrill-seeking behaviours, buying condos on spec?
Why do young people have to throw their lives away like that. Can’t people just take recreational pharmaceuticals instead?
It’s different in BC! I’ve heard that a few times so it must be true…
Because foreigners buy everything and anything…
Everyone wants to live in BC.
Interest rates will never rise in BC.
And few other reasons but forget.
I think most are delusional and it’s locals buying up all supply to speculate. Who cares about negative cash flow and debt because you can flip it for 40% profit in 18 months…
I guess it is different and everyone in BC are millionaires, must be nice. Can’t all be based on massive massive debt and easy money free from the banks and bank of mom.. Nope that can’t be it.
Had a question regarding rates:
When the BOC starts increasing its rates, will RBC and other banks match it point per point every step of the way.
Ex: 5 year fixed rate
Jun 2017 BOC 0.5% RBC 2.6%
Jul 2017 0.75% 2.85%
Nov 2017 1.0% 3.1%
Aug 2018 1.5% 3.6%
Jan 2019 2.0% 4.1%
Jun 2019 2.5% 4.6%
Jan 2020 3.0% 5.1%
The only conclusion you can reach is that there has to be collusion between the city machinery, developers, and obviously homeowners are de facto part of that too. That is who is benefiting from this system as it is. And it’s hurting the vast majority of the people who live here. We’re talking about millions and millions of dollars being made in this corrupt structure. People should be thoroughly embarrassed by this. If this were a similar situation in other countries, there would be investigations and hard questions being asked. Why are interest rates so low? Why are the banks being downgraded for being overexposed in the housing market? There should even be criminal investigations related to the real estate sector. The story of the unbridled real estate market in Vancouver is casino capitalism as its worst — a lottery which reduces a social resource like housing to a commodity.
https://thetyee.ca/News/2017/06/20/Vancouver-Housing-Crisis-Worse/
Frist. Bill Frist.
Great analysis as always
Wait a second Garth….interest rates were brought down to avoid the pain and recession…why would they bring them up to cause the very pain they were trying to avoid to begin with.???
If they do go up and cause pain….they will be brought back down again resulting in even lower rates…
….unless…
Recent conversations with other parents who own units in the condo-plex where we rent indicate that the strata is broke after a major re-roofing project, and that the owners are facing a special assessment of between $50k to $80k per unit to complete half-finished emergency repairs on outdoor balconies and membrane work on the parking garages.
Most are young families, one or two kids each, most have bought in the last 5 years. Those on the condo board who are pushing for the work are long-time owners, some looking to sell at higher prices, after the work is complete.
All of this will be financed by HELOCs, though probably later, rather than sooner, as residents bet that the maintenance can be deferred before credit tightens.
Looks like that may not be the case.
DELETED
Risky Mortgages Shadow Banking Threaten Vancouver Housing Market Stability
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouver-real-estate-in-the-red
Thanks to corrupt Christy who deliberately understaffed the folks who were supposed to regulate
Raising them to have some ammo to lower them later?
Let the show begin.
Oh look, VREU is back with another long winded diatribe which regurgitates what Garth has said for years…
By the way, will VREU every answer why prices have gone up 20% or more since the supposed plunge in sales since she started predicting the crash in Victoria a year ago?
Many pointed out that low supply accounts for low volumes, but that fell on deaf ears. Two Aprils have passed with the supposed peak sales and pricing since she weighed in here.
It must be difficult to acknowledge being wrong and to simply spout the same rhetoric when faced with the current price surge situation.
If rates go up (a whole quarter point) to support the federally mandated illusion of a robust economy, then they’ll come down quickly to reduce any negative impacts. This is Japan all over again.
Rates are going up through out the world. The low rate experiment has proven a total failure. Nothing has improved. Now they are raising interest rates and Canadians face financial ruin. Best part is rates don’t even have to go up for Canada to face a deep housing crash. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)
These foreign buyers are quite the Entrepreneurs.
Markham home owned by overseas couple rented out as ‘Airbnb party house’
#21 Smartalox
Do you know how old is the building undergoing renos?
Is it in Vancouver?
Then again, all this rate increase talk may just be to manipulate the markets so that insiders can make a forutne when it doesn’t materialize.
Michael Campbell’s Money Talks, June 16/17 “Pop Goes Canada’s Housing Boom”. China Key.
Wait a second Garth….interest rates were brought down to avoid the pain and recession…why would they bring them up to cause the very pain they were trying to avoid to begin with.? If they do go up and cause pain….they will be brought back down again resulting in even lower rates…
————————————————————–
As soon as the music stops it’s all-out financial collapse worldwide; we’re past the end of the life cycle of our fictional monetary system.
Judges should avoid the gratuitous recitation of irrelevant facts and comments in their decisions. Hubby is a neurologist in Singapore pulling in $2MM per annum with $50MM in assets. He moved the wife and children to YVR in the immigrant investor program but never moved to Canada. Now a hotly contested divorce is unfolding. Her Ladyship thinks she is writing a comment on an Internet blog:
“[14] I accept the Claimant’s evidence that the accounts which are used to fund the mortgage on their joint asset – the West Vancouver home – was purposefully put into her name so as to avoid any suggestion that the Respondent was financially active here and therefore, subject to Canadian and BC income tax. Accordingly, but for a small amount of income earned on investments in BC in the Claimant’s name, the vast majority of the family income has been earned elsewhere and presumably taxed elsewhere (if at all) – while the Claimant and K.D. have enjoyed the many benefits of Canadian society, including K.D.’s attendance at the local public high school. Needless to say, this family has also now taken advantage of and sourced another valuable benefit in our society – our legal system – which is funded by Canadian and BC taxpayers.”
http://www.courts.gov.bc.ca/jdb-txt/sc/17/10/2017BCSC1010.htm
Great article about how extreme the Vancouver housing crisis is. Truly shameful.
https://thetyee.ca/News/2017/06/20/Vancouver-Housing-Crisis-Worse/
The article is about social housing, not the housing market. Big difference. — Garth
@#31 Pierre fron St Cesaire
“As soon as the music stops it’s all-out financial collapse worldwide; we’re past the end of the life cycle of our fictional monetary system…..”
*******
Anyone else notice that when Post apocalypse Peter posts…… Apocalypse2017 never does?
@#31 April.
Michael Campbell’s money talks…..
*******
The brother or Gordon Cambell has the audacity to “predict” the BC Housing meltdown !
For year after year after YEAR he ALWAYS had that real estate huckster Ozzie Jurock flogging his “deal of the week” at the end of each “Money Talks ” show.
Michael Campbells “financial” advice belongs in the toilet right next to the used bumwad………
Great deal on GIC’s.My big bank’s investing arm shows all the best rates are being offered by Home Truat from 1 to 5 year. Way higher than big banks, kinda funny don’ t you think?
Garth I’m not even allowed to question the over-saturation of the labour market which suppresses wages?
What is wrong with you man?
I quoted you from the article.
“(while our incomes have flatlined)”
I’ve been reading your whole blog for years and all you do is remove my comments.
Once when deserved. If you want to rag on immigrants, go infect some other blog. — Garth
Big City real estate has been financialized … and much like equities can trade way above it’s inherent (or cash flow equivalent) value. There are no cheap big cities around the world. People are still moving to cities looking for career opportunities (at least for now).
Well I didn’t even bring up immigrants here but you removed my comment anyways. I said over-saturation of the labour market. Why can’t we just take in 100,000 immigrants per year until we return to full employment and rising wages? How is that anti-immigrant? Surely you’re allowed in this country to question the levels of immigration without being labelled a racist.
Young people have been completely screwed in this country. Garbage tier wages, no good full time jobs, and insanely high cost of living.
Show me 4% unemployment, booming wages, millions of job openings and I’ll gladly agree with you on an economic justification for 320,000 immigrants per year.
And even more importantly, you as a capitalist, how in the world can you justify the Temporary Foreign Worker program? Those aren’t immigrants. Those are cheap labour slaves. If a business owner can’t fill their labour needs at $10/hour, they must raise their wage. That’s ECON101. That’s capitalism.
Your inability to find meaningful work is not another person’s fault. — Garth
#12 Tony on 06.20.17 at 6:11 pm
I hope interest rates go up in Canada.
———————————————————
So do I, but it’s foolish to believe that will go up significantly any time soon. Just consider what a monkey wrench it would be for the “economy” if rates were to go up by 2%. Disaster. We’ll have a disaster anyway once this ponzi scheme eventually collapses on it’s own, but politicians will prolong the status quo as long as possible and kick the can down the road as far as possible. The “coming” (for years now) 1/4 point raise is just for show.
yes in Scamcouver there is no end in sight to the buying of condos ..Telus gardens 1bdrm 500 sq ft (an enlarged closet) Seymour/Georgia for $768,000
http://bcres.paragonrels.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=2ee2df3b-7d39-497e-b83f-397c7b4e5768&Report=Yes
also new condos by Joyce Station Kingsway/Boundary (burnaby/van border) also going for similar prices/similar sizes per steve saretsky:
https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/877262279808491520/photo/1
In a province as massive as Ontario, some are willing to mortgage a mil or more on a teardown with a 30 yard frontage in TO? How bloody stupid can people be?
I have lost my faith in mankind. Just saying.
For what it’s worth, I am a long term subscriber to a very pricey astrological (don’t laugh) financial writer who has an outstanding record. He is of Indian descent with the initials “M.S”.
He very seldom predicts real estate matters, nor does he reference Canada very much. I was reviewing his annual forecasting from January of this year and was struck by his prediction for a very adverse occurrence in Canadian real estate in or around August. FYI
and btw: that telus gardens spot does NOT include parking…add on another $300/mo for parking…..so in 10 yrs for parking alone the cost would be $36,000!!
http://bcres.paragonrels.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=2ee2df3b-7d39-497e-b83f-397c7b4e5768&Report=Yes
@Boombust
Nice counter but YOU are way off.
I am not a realtor. I live in Van. Prices are at highest levels in history here. Yes sales may have dropped but that’s it. I take it you don’t live in BC. Prices are extremely high and have not come down. I hope they do though…. because this is ridiculous.
Thanks
reply to Garth @#40
“Your inability to find meaningful work is not another person’s fault.”
Wow. Just wow. I thought you were better than that.
Says the boomer whose entire demographic cohort could walk into a steady, full time job at 16 years old with not even a high school diploma and be set for life.
Are you really this out of touch? Don’t you have kids or grandkids?
You think it’s just me?
Job quality in Canada at 25-year low, says CIBC
Part-time and low-wage work on the rise, and the problem is getting worse
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/job-quality-in-canada-at-25-year-low-says-cibc-1.2982891
New federal panel set up to tackle youth unemployment
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/10/17/new-federal-panel-set-up-to-tackle-youth-unemployment.html
““What we’ve heard loud and clear is that the reality for millennials in Canada is increasingly grim — ‘hopelessness’ was the word I heard most often,” Ashton said.”
Job Vacancy Numbers Fly In Face Of Liberals’ Foreign-Worker Expansion
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/08/11/job-vacancies-canada-foreign-worker-program_n_11458028.html
At least I have data. All you have are personal insults. Funny how the quickly the tables turn.
And how quickly you boomers reject capitalism when it comes to your greatest entitlement of all, cheap labour.
Hey VREU…
I’m not sure I understand, are you trying to tell us that Victoria is in a housing bubble? (Your previous 500 posts were not entirely clear)
Chinese Markham real estate flyers promote overseas buyers
https://www.yorkregion.com/news-story/7252965-chinese-markham-real-estate-flyers-promote-overseas-buyers/
“Jennifer Jones, another agent who has been locally selling for 12 years, said she believes foreign buyers make up as much as 90 per cent of the Markham market. A local developer has also suggested that as much as 90 per cent of the money for home purchases is coming from Asia”
“Those agents were all in favour of a foreign buyers tax, some advocating for a tax as high as 50 per cent, others indicating it should be at least 25 per cent to cool off foreign purchases”
WOW! We need a much higher tax than 15%! Once prices start falling to more reasonable levels, these foreign buyers will just buy again and prices will rise.
Raise it to 50% and get it over with!
They look Italian in the photo. Subliminally so?
Any comments on why the stock market is doing so bad lately??? Hell, home capital stock is rocking….
It will be interesting to see if Hot Properties hypes this up. Here’s what they were saying back in Dec 2007.
https://youtu.be/KpGvHQAUc9c
#12 Tony on 06.20.17 at 6:11 pm
I hope interest rates go up in Canada.
===
Money can be made both in low interest rate and in high interest rate environment.
Interest rate is like the weather, you can’t do anything about it, you just have to dress / bet accordingly.
Waiting for interest rate changes for your investment plan is not different than trying to time the market.
Besides, when banks will raise the interest rate they will keep most of it for themselves, you won’t see much benefit from it, unless you lend your capital directly to borrowers.
Townhouse and condo projects that are selling units but don’t have a spade in the ground yet – are they pooched? There are a number of boarded up lots on Kingston Road that have been given the go-ahead to be condos. Will they end up being like the Bay-Adelaide Centre in the 90s?
none of this is good news for Derek….
B.C. NDP softens position on speculative real estate tax
A two-per-cent tax on speculative real-estate investment in B.C. that was a key part of the NDP’s election platform may not be a sure thing, says the party’s spokesman for housing.
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/ndp-softens-position-on-speculative-real-estate-tax
With the recent drops in oil, and little to no vibrancy elsewhere, there’s simply not enough inflationary or demand pressure to warrant rate hikes. If anything, the data is screaming strongly, “rate cuts”. Even the Canadian dollar at this point, which ordinarily should be selling off strongly in response to the falling oil prices, isn’t doing much. Deflationary pressure from the falling housing market seems to be overwhelming the “usual” response as Canadians cut back their spending significantly.
If you go to the StatsCan website and look at the YoY CPI numbers, the only outliers in coming to the 1.6% YoY number were transportation and energy prices, at 4.2% and 9.6%/annum. These numbers are obviously decelerating quite hard at this point and anecdotally are probably negative, at least on the energy price front (filled up with gas lately??). Thus CPI is likely hard pressed to even hit 1%, and may even be teetering on outright deflation.
As I said yesterday, not a chance of a rate hike in July. And the next Bank of Canada move, barring some magical recovery in the Canadian economy ex-real estate, will be a rate cut.
#38, 40
Please stop whining in every post and go find a way to make the best of whatever circumstances you find yourself living in, like every generation before you has. Nobody owes you a house or anything else.
Also, please learn to spell “millennial.” It’s an embarrassment to those of us from this generation who expect to be taken seriously.
For the record, I’m a millennial with no university degree (yet), have been independent of my parents’ home and finances for a decade, have a job with defined benefit pension, put more than a third of my take-home pay into savings, own an old sports car, travel regularly, and could put 20% down on the average home in my Canadian city. If you don’t like your situation, change something. Life really isn’t that hard if you spend less time worrying about what others have than on what you can do for yourself.
The Vienna model for housing sanity
No housing shortage, no waiting lists, no Ponzi scheme-like market scramble. Can Vancouver learn anything from the Austrian way?
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/what-vancouver-can-learn-from-the-vienna-model-for-affordablehousing/article35128683/
Poloz will not sink Trudeau Liberals with a rate increase. Trudeau budget would blow up. The silly Mills who voted for Trudeau would be entirely screwed and he needs the votes…..pot won’t do it this time. Civil service unions won’t allow it because they’ll lose the election badly. Special interest groups won’t allow because foreigner nationals will have to pay more for access. There are too many negatives…..wait for more excuses…..no rate increase. The debt drunk bureaucrats would not allow it. Canada is entirely corrupt. Don’t expect anything but more nonsense from our colour coded numbskulls in government.
#40 Screwed Canadian Millenial
Your inability to find meaningful work is not another person’s fault. — Garth
===
Individuals have the fundamental, primary responsibility for their own life, achieving their goals, of course.
How hard is that to achieve is hardly independent from supply/demand in the surrounding society.
Supposedly “employers inability to find useful employees is not another person’s fault”, either, yet the government created TFWP.
More than 192,000 temporary foreign workers entered Canada in 2011. The overall total includes about 70,000 foreign workers whose employer required an LMO from HRSDC and close to 120,000 who did not require an LMO.
In 2011, more than 29,000 temporary foreign workers made the transition to permanent status.
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/publications/employers/temp-foreign-worker-program.asp
You mean he temporary foreign workers who accepted positions employers could not find Canadians to fill? — Garth
Praying for a real estate crash
The have-nots of housing are watching, mad as hell, as homeowners glory in their paper fortunes. And they’re starting to lash out.
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/praying-for-a-real-estate-crash/
“When the BOC starts increasing its rates, will RBC and other banks match it point per point every step of the way.”
If the rate hikes go into a period of decreasing consumer credit-worthiness, then the spread between the BoC policy target rate, and the bank “prime” rate probably will grow. As a reflection of the decreasing credit-worthiness of borrowers that is likely with rate increases in an otherwise extremely weak economy.
Historically rate hikes do not take place significantly into periods of decreasing consumer-creditworthiness however. This is why the claim that the Bank of Canada will be hiking soon strikes me as being so bizarre and contrary to the actual state of the Canadian economy.
This is often called ‘jawboning’. Where a central banker tries to scare the market into implementing behavior around a specific set of policy objectives, without actually implementing policy.
#60 Stock picker on 06.20.17 at 8:27 pm
Poloz will not sink Trudeau Liberals with a rate increase.
============
He has no choice. The US calls the shots. It’s that simple.
@Vancouver, #29
In Vancouver, about 20 years old.
They’ll probably defer the work for at least 10 more years.
reply to Garth reply @#61
“You mean he temporary foreign workers who accepted positions employers could not find Canadians to fill?”
Garth cmon man. You are not this naive. You’re smarter than that.
There is no labour shortage in this country.
Job Vacancy Numbers Fly In Face Of Liberals’ Foreign-Worker Expansion http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/08/11/job-vacancies-canada-foreign-worker-program_n_11458028.html
Canada is the only country in the world where ~7% unemployment and no wage growth means a “labour shortage.” Gimme a break!
Think back to your capitalist roots Garth. If there was a labour shortage, wouldn’t we be seeing wages spiking?
Don’t you think it’s far more plausible that companies are throwing Canadian job applications in the trash and importing cheap foreign labour who have no economic rights or labour mobility?
Oh btw, when companies directly replace Canadian workers with TFWs, you’re going to claim the Canadians didn’t want those jobs?
RBC replaces Canadian staff with foreign workers
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/rbc-replaces-canadian-staff-with-foreign-workers-1.1315008
Nearly 300 contractors replaced with temporary foreign workers
http://www.fortmcmurraytoday.com/2013/10/07/canadian-employees-replaced-with-temporary-foreign-workers
Credit to you for not deleting #47. I’m not the racist deplorable I think you assumed me to be.
There is a labour shortage of Canadians willing to work for starvation wages while constantly under the threat of deportation. I will grant you that. As a capitalist, shouldn’t you be outraged? Or is it just cheap labour at any and all costs?
I am a fan of yours but you are so out of touch with this stuff. When was the last time you’ve volunteered at a food bank? I highly suggest you take some time and see what’s going on out there. I’m not saying you don’t donate to charity, I’m saying talk to these people and take a look at how much hurt is going in Canada.
I found a cool ETF today to park the money that had been rotting away in my chequing account. Pays me about $100 a month in dividend in my tsfa. I’m not rich but this makes me happy :)
In the You Are Free to Leave at Anytime Dept.:
Saw a poster nearby the City Place condos in TO:
‘Condos are minimum security prisons. Enjoy your stay’
Alrighty then….
– From the Beer & Burger and the Killing Us Softly Departments:
First ingredient in fresh made burgers at my local Grocery store: Canola oil.
Would be the GMO gunk too. Seems every prepared food or sauce has it or modified fructose. Only the most fattening for us tax farm cattle. Ask your doctor today!
#55 bellend on 06.20.17 at 8:14 pm
none of this is good news for Derek….
——
Hey there bellend. Maybe you can help me. I worked with a British guy years ago who would hurl many British insults (bellend was a favourite of his).
He also used a word that sounds like life but with a K, ie. kife.
It seems to have escaped Google, either that or I am a mile off on how to spell it.
I’d love to know what the heck it means!
Both Carney and Poloz are famous for threatening rate increases and then doing jack squat.
I know they are just little nobodies who follow the USA lead, but Poloz is in a bind here with our housing and debt mess.
How much can our rates diverge with those of USA before we have no choice but to raise? Other than the dollar what else is affected by the divergence?
That’s a big deal since interest rates are in the ditch, and in 1995 a five-year mortgage cost 10.6%. In fact the 25-year average is 6%. Tell your kid that.
……………………………………………………………………..
55 years ago my father had a 6% mortgage and the the 3 acreage 3 bdr house cost 6K
I tried to tell you maaas that the BoC would raise on 12 July yesterday, and some intellectual said ‘not a chance’. The chance is 100% – that’s why they trotted out Wilkins to say so.
It looks like many things are in a bubble and ready to pop – and when they do the war mongers get itchy
RATM
#189 Shopping Zoo on 06.20.17 at 3:02 pm
Just came back from Costco in Richmond.
An absolute Zoo, even in off-peak hours: tuesday morning.
Parking lot jammed, all registers with long lines.
So I figured, this business is booming, I should get some stock. Unfortunately, it is not publicly listed :-(
——————————
?????
best check again. it’s a huge stock. just paid a 7$ one time div, plus reg qtrly div.
and it just so happens that it went on the best sale ever 2 days ago, i bought more.
amazon buying whole foods crushed all other us grocers yesterday and today. the drop in costco is [email protected]@hit as it is the opposite of whole foods (great value vs rip off)
Raising interest rates would primarily affect people with a HELOC as their debt servicing costs will increase. Lots of assumptions on this blog that people have racked up bad debt and will be unable to service that debt.
Yet….the bond market which drives mortgage rates is at its lowest yield since Trump won the election. So even though the Fed has risen rates twice, mortgage rates are actually lower than they were last November – and quite dramatically since the winter.
Lots of inconsistent thinking on this blog….people refer to surveys about the living pay cheque to pay cheque for Canadians but blatantly ignore the same results for the USA….:erroneously suggesting that the US is booming.
The facts remain: The developed world is awash in debt….the debt can never be paid back. In terms of total debt (gov and citizen) Canada is actually in better shape than most countries. We will see whether Canada goes into a major recession as so many are proclaiming but the reality is that as goes the US so goes Canada.
While a laggging indicator….bankruptcies and insolvencies in Canada have not risen. Our GDP growth is outstripping that of the US, and the debt that has been secured through a HELOC may be invested in real assets, including the stock market etc.
There are a lot of doomers on this site that may actually be more motivated by their desire to see a real estate crash because they missed the epic run from 2006 until present.
You blog dogs got me on to Hunter S Thompson. Never knew who he was till I wonderd on to the wierd comment section.
Got to confess, after I read fear and loathing I was hooked. I connected huge.
But did something different. Rather than re type his words like he did with Earnest Hemingway.
I took a short cut like I always do. Get up to the same level of alcoholism and self destruction to feel what the great writers feel. Should have had a fan base first. I fkd up.
I can tell for sure it was a mistake. I’m Trapped now.
The elevator cable snapped, dropping at free fall speed. Can’t do anything about it now. Just share the ride before I splat.
According to Ross Kay, Howestreet.com, White rock BC is a “no buy” due to on going water supply problems- arsenic and manganeze = brown water. Home prices dropping.
Sellers and realtors not revealing these facts
#47 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 06.20.17 at 7:50 pm
—-
Honest question:
Who did you vote for in the last provincial and federal election?
75k bonus.
https://www.google.ca/amp/vancouversun.com/news/local-news/council-to-hear-case-on-prominent-north-shore-realtor/amp
“How much can our rates diverge with those of USA before we have no choice but to raise? Other than the dollar what else is affected by the divergence? “
Poloz and the Bank of Canada set policy based on economic conditions *in Canada*. Canada, over the past 2 decades, has extensively invested in a robust export capacity which, if not for profligate domestic spending by Canadian consumers, particularly on imported goods, would have ordinarily led to a skyrocketing CAD$.
In essence, the housing bubble is what has kept the CAD$ down, relatively speaking, against the USD$. As Canadians have been borrowing CAD$ and selling it almost as fast as they can, to purchase imported goods and services.
As the housing bubble collapses, Canadian of consumption age will most likely have a lot less CAD$ they can actually borrow and spend. Additionally, there will be significant and intense demand for CAD$ to repay existing and prior debts. The net result of this is significant demand for CAD$, deflation, and the likely necessity of an extended period of very low rates.
In fairness, the US has this problem as well, but there’s trillions of USD$ overseas that will eventually come ashore to place demand on the US economy. There is no significant amount of CAD$ overseas, nor Canadian foreign debt offshore to act as demand on the Canadian economy. In light of such, while the US needs to offer a globally competitive real return to maintain confidence in the USD$ and keep those offshore USD$ from coming back too quickly, Canada does not have that problem.
So yeah, there can be huge divergences, simply because there has been a huge discrepancy in how the Canadian economy has been managed relative to the US economy for the past few decades. Canada being relatively austere, keeping debt manageable and mostly self-funded and mostly self-sufficient with respect to trade. The US, fighting many unproductive and unwinnable wars, implementing a vast and largely ineffective domestic “national security” apparatus. Out of control public sector spending. Massive unfunded entitlement programs. An out of control healthcare system that will end in a trainwreck eventually. We may complain about our politicians, or “how things are done” in Canada, but trust me, we are very lucky compared to how things are run in the US and the eventual outcome of such incompetence.
Poloz seems clueless to me. A few months ago the guy was talking about cutting rates. Looks like He has no clue what is going on or what to do. The USA makes the decisions and he follows.
#76 Smoking Man on 06.20.17 at 9:14 pm
You blog dogs got me on to Hunter S Thompson. Never knew who he was till I wonderd on to the wierd comment section.
——
“Everybody sat over their drinks, nursing them. Few had the imagination to simply get piss-assed drunk.” – Charles Bukowski
Alright blog dogs, I got some serious advice to ask.
I made a 30K CAD investment that turned into 1 Million USD.
I was lucky.
If you want to know, it was the Ethereum crypto-currency.
Now you might know these markets are very speculative and volatile.
I have not sold yet, and it could turn into 2 millions before the end of the year.
It could also turn into just 100k by then.
The thing is this tech has a lot of upside potential. Its market cap has reached 80% if Bitcoin’s.
I was dreaming of making 2 millions and live comfortably off that. Never to work as an employee ever again. I would still do some freelance or try to generate income on the side, but with full freedom.
However, 1 million – even if great – does not offer the same guarantee of financial independence.
I’m in my mid 30’s, no kids, no wife (but long term girlfriend – living with her), I own 0 real estate.
My net worth, apart from this investment, is 150k CAD in a diversified portfolio.
I spend 3500 CAD USD a month.
I work in software and earn 80k CAD a year (gross).
What would you do?
-Sell everything
-Sell partially (how much?)
-Stay in, cowboy style
Any input appreciated.
Q. How do you know when a Millennial is talking?
A: That whining noise.
How you know when a Millennial is whining? That talking noise.
Case closed. :)
M41ON
IHCDT9
It is the constituent part of the male anatomy (that resides at the end of its parent part) that is shaped as the name suggests.
Joviality aside, I’d love to know what the latest with Derek is.
Kife is kak.
I think it was in Iacocca’s book, a quote from Delorian, “GM is like dragon, when you bite it’s tail with all of your might, it takes a long time for it to feel it, and yet longer for it to turn around and incinerate you with flames.”
The world economy is bigger than GM, so this little problem originating in the canyon of Wall St. since the repeal of Glass Stegal is taking some time to take hold.
I guess we should be happy about the delay.
Life is good so far. Except for the youth.
Screwed Canadian Millennial
Have a read and replace American with Canadian
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/opinion/only-mass-deportation-can-save-america.html
Iron sharpens Iron, we need talent to step up our game…
Hey, Screwed Canadian Millenial, why don’t you take my advice and get out of North America while you still can (and don’t go to Europe). There is no future here. You can’t change that. All you can do here is to be fodder for the carnage that is about to be unleashed. Get training in a field that is universally recognized (like a hydro linesman) and take your trade overseas. Otherwise do what economist Aaron Clarey says and just “enjoy the decline”.
Agenda 21…there you have it.
I believe they will start tearing them down without appeal, for ‘densification’ and/or punishing taxation, bylaws and Environmental Audits which will see the city backed with armed men tearing down perfectly good houses – no longer meeting UN energy specs you see -while families cry outside. Always has happened in history.
“The single-family home is going extinct, chief planner Jennifer Keesmat tells Toronto Region Board of Trade”
https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/06/20/single-family-homes-a-non-starter-in-toronto-jennifer-keesmaat-says.html
Bear with me. Disclaimer, I’m shit face huge.
Every one is addicted to Mount Everest success stories and they do exist for a microscopic precentage of the population. The ride making it up to the top has alot of boaring moments between action. Just read JK Rolling and you will get what I mean.
Now jumping or falling off the mountain is alot shorter ride, but it’s heart pumping action that you can’t put down till its done.
147 sales of deplorables by the Deslexic Smoking Man. Can I make to 150 before the elevator meets Mr gravity.
#89 TurnerNation on 06.20.17 at 9:49 pm
Agenda 21…there you have it.
I believe they will start tearing them down without appeal, for ‘densification’ and/or punishing taxation, bylaws and Environmental Audits which will see the city backed with armed men tearing down perfectly good houses – no longer meeting UN energy specs you see -while families cry outside. Always has happened in history.
“The single-family home is going extinct, chief planner Jennifer Keesmat tells Toronto Region Board of Trade”
https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/06/20/single-family-homes-a-non-starter-in-toronto-jennifer-keesmaat-says.html
– See more at: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/06/20/careful-7/#comments
…….
You’re getting old, falling behind the times, I suspect a grey hair on one of your nuts. Its been reworked.
Agenda 2030 trump set em back a bit.
Mark, put your stats and analysis away. Puppy Poloz is not in charge. Janet is the big dog and will drag all the other central banking puppies along behind her, with variable delay.
#83 Crypto Millionaire
—————————————–
Sell virtually everything but not in one big clump. Get out while the getting is good. Also, it can be difficult to turn cryptocurrencies into cash in large quantities. Be careful that you don’t get taken. You’ve made a fortune, enjoy it. It was most likely the best chance to ‘get-rich-quick’ that you’ll encounter in your lifetime. It could drop to $5000 overnight. The govt could decide to tax it at 90%. It could get outlawed. Be happy and get out now. I’m not trying to scare others off from investing in cryptocurrencies, I’m just saying that YOU’VE already WON and it’s time to go.
#’s 1.2…Victoria
Bang on. Thanks for injecting a dose of reality for those who need it.
You mean the temporary foreign workers who accepted positions employers could not find Canadians to fill? — Garth
===================================
Nope, a bit TOO glib, this one.
Certainly, in specific fields there is a genuine shortage of labour. But in the vast majority of TFW applications it’s simply cheaper to bring in workers who are nominally qualified and will work for lower wages, than to invest in Canadian workers who are most definitely qualified and eager to work. (I won’t bore everyone with a case study in my own field). From tradespeople to engineering to IT to aviation, it’s all about cutting costs – not a shortage of labour. If anything there is a glut of labour worldwide, hence people desperate to come and work for less. It’s simplistic in the extreme to state “shortage of labour” in Canada. More like:
“shortage of experienced labour able to work completely unstable schedules, on short-term contracts, tightly bound to one’s employer, for wages reduced both in real and inflation-adjusted terms”.
In go the applications to HRSDC.
It’s globalization, and I get it – I’m pretty much the poster child for the phenomena in reverse. Left Canada to fill another country’s labour needs when Canada couldn’t provide me stable employment. I certainly have nothing against any foreign worker, per se – they are just “unit costs” to a business, anyway. Hell, if you could contract a company in the Philippines to provide workers in Belfountain at a much lower cost than you’re paying now to your Canadian workers, I would think you a poor businessman for not considering it.
BUT… don’t try and casually dismiss it as a simple lack of workers within the country as if the poor, victim companies had no choice but to bring in foreigners to do everything from serve coffee to fly planes because they just couldn’t “find” any Canadians to work.
When screwed Canadian Millennial comments all I can hear is a the high pitcher wail of an infant.
Your situation is the result of your own shortcomings. If you are screwed it is because you spend your time being pathetic and talking about how hard your life is.
My parents are immigrants who came to this country with nothing. My mom cleaned tables in a cafeteria and then worked as a janitor in a hospital and my dad drove cab. They worked minimum wage jobs and often worked two jobs at the same time.
More recently my cousins came to Canada and work at Macs store and a gas station for minimum wage. They saved enough money to buy a house 10 years after they arrived in this country with nothing.
I myself have been working since I was 14 and put myself through two professional degrees.
I don’t understand how anyone who has the privilege of being born and raised in Canada, who was educated in English for free, and has free access to health care can complain.
Blame yourself. You are the cause of your own misfortune.
You said it…about this blog. Truly, a wonderful “freak of nature” not to mention the comments! The 1st 2 spells out this housing shiite.
You’re doing a great job. Thanks!
You mean he temporary foreign workers who accepted positions employers could not find Canadians to fill? — Garth
====
I mean the temporary foreign workers who accepted positions for the low wage employers could not find easily Canadians to fill.
Most temporary foreign workers in Canada are not here for brain drain but for lower payroll cost.
Screwed Canadian Millennial
I share your skepticism of Canada’s current immigration policy.
However I certainly hope you did not vote Liberal in 2015 as the majority of your generation did. If so, you more or less endorsed that wide-open-door agenda.
#81 Jose – sharp and #80 Mark – lots to figure out but here’s how it works:
We have to follow the US interest rate cycle within a certain band. We are not free to ignore what the US Fed is doing. If they are on three rises in a row and we do nothing, then our exchange rate falls below what we need. It doesn’t make any difference whether they should be raising. They are. That’s all you need to process.
So once you know the US is now past its third rise and we have done nothing, you should really start to wonder why / when we raise. Because we have to track it. If anything, we have got lucky that the exchange has not fallen below 70, because I can promise you we would have raised a lot sooner had that happened.
Three rises in the US is enough. We can’t go four without action in Canada. So we’re on for July.
So we are all on the same page: I do not think the US should be raising. I am in full agreement with Peter Schiff / Robert Gordon that it’s nonsense. But, and in my view this is VERY underdiscussed, the US Fed cycle is HIGHLY politicised.
Janet Yellen is a Democrat / Obama appointee and what happens? She wants Hillary to win in 16 and will not, ever, raise rates. You’re guaranteed enormous noise, fanfare, bleating, etc, but what you will not get is a Dem appointed Fed Chief raising when a Dem is trying to win.
So the Dem does not win, and now, magically, the Fed person is not in the same party as the president and now we have rises. It’s politically driven. And Canada’s going to follow, I promise.
Don’t blame millenials, its their mental case teachers that made them mental.
Swallowed an agenda that did not come from creativity, the root of tracher hate is pure jealousy of brave bastards.
Trachers aint brave. Thats why they teach.
Whiners blame out and always fail
Any generation
They get what they deserve
#83 Crypto Millionaire on 06.20.17 at 9:35 pm
It is my long term belief if you did not “earn” this money then you will not be able to keep this money.
You would have to work a life time of hard labor and make 2 million to get 1 million after tax CDN and this being USD then it’s 2 life times of work.
The simple fact that you would have to ask what to do speaks volumes of what you need to do and that’s cash out, never look back.
You won buddy, cash out, get a financial advisor and start a new project.
Deflation was a myth. BoC/Fed hikes due to solid Canadian/US economies
CAD/USD range-bound
Tech booming
All as I predicted
Oh, and this kid thinks whiny millenials are losers:
https://www.inc.com/john-nemo/how-a-13-year-old-immigrant-built-a-6-figure-seo-business-from-scratch.html
#84 TurnerNation on 06.20.17 at 9:36 pm
Q. How do you know when a Millennial is talking?
A: That whining noise.
How you know when a Millennial is whining? That talking noise.
Case closed. :)
M41ON
————————
Good one, not.
I guess Boomers never had a reason to whine. When you receive all the components of an easy, prosperous life handed to you on a silver platter without having to work for it, as their generation did, excessive complaining would be unseemly.
I suspect you’ll hear plenty of complaining from Booners trying to sell their empty nests over the next few years. Millennial buyers should get together and refuse to buy a house off anyone over 60 without a minimum 30% discount.
#40 Screwed Canadian Millenial
Your inability to find meaningful work is not another person’s fault. — Garth
—————————————————————-
I follow Garth’s blog regularly; the factual and sometimes comic nature of his blog posts are really entertaining (his response to your post made me LMPO). He has been consistent in his analysis in indicating the principal factors contributing to the fast climbing of RE prices and disconnect with economic fundaments (real gains in earnings or inflation). The combination of lax economic policies, low personal finance literacy and our difficulty to delay gratification are the real culprits. It is hard to associate the blame to immigration when we have “real Canadians” financing new cars, boats using HELOC based on inflated home equities; people from all age groups buying more RE than they should/can afford considering a probable average rate over their mortgage life.
I do understand your frustration with the economic situation faced by young Canadians (20 – 39) but disagree on your imputation of blame. I am a new comer (immigrant, one of them) but at the same time one of you (I am 37 years old my wife is 33). I didn’t buy or would not buy a house in Toronto or Vancouver at current prices considering my income (+200k/year). Considering my wife will not read this blog (sorry Gary but she doesn’t like finance), I will disclose some personal anecdotal information. It may provide arguments against to your points in relation to immigration and the temporary worker programs. My wife is a “real Canadian” from Saskatchewan. Her uncle has a small farm in BC and he uses the temporary worker program to bring a Mexican (bad hombre) every summer. He tried to employ “real Canadians” but cannot find one that will stay and work for more than one week (he does pay more than 10$/h by the way). He has a son, 39 years old and in good health. His son has started a degree in Archeology but after 6 years of study dropped out of school. He worked as a travel agent for a few years but didn’t like the job and now has moved back in with his parents. They got a second mortgage on their property to set him up with a fruit stand business and have to delay their retirement plans! I don’t think my cousin-in-law is a good representation of all young “real Canadians” but he does represent a trend. When I first met my wife she was finishing her studies at UoT (double major in soft subjects) after taking 3 years off and travelling. She had no clue at the time of the job market, the skills required to find a job or to open a business. She couldn’t find good paying jobs after graduation; we got married and had kids. She is now back to school, taking Nursing after doing serious research on job market, employment opportunities and skill requirements. Her career was not impacted by any immigrant flooding the market (she doesn’t want to work as a cab driver or at fast food chains) but by her own decisions on the programs to take and postponing studies to travel in Europe.
@#96 Simvan
“I don’t understand how anyone who has the privilege of being born and raised in Canada, who was educated in English for free, and has free access to health care can complain. Blame yourself. You are the cause of your own misfortune…..”
********
Total agreement.
People that take unmarketable University degrees that bury them in debt and garantee them nothing blame “immigration” instead of their own gullible stupidity and laziness ( Hmmm, a Bachelor or Arts and get to Par-tay vs a Bachelor of Science and nose to the grindstone……What will I choose?).
My suggestion.
Stop blaming other people and …….
Get a trade.
Apprentices get paid as they learn.
No one today wants to get their hands dirty and those icky, grubby, unfashionable journeymen(women) can make 100g’s a year…….
Or a shitload more if they own their own business…..
I know plumbers, electricians, refrigeration mechanics, insulators, on and on and on that own sevreal houses each AND are debt free……and laughing at all you whiney Starbucks slurping fools that pay them $100/hr to unplug their toilet or fix their A/C, lights, whatever ……
Who’s the greaterfool?
@#105 How Weird
“Millennial buyers should get together and refuse to buy a house off anyone over 60 without a minimum 30% discount. …”
++++++++
Sooooo, I guess that means you wont hit your Boomer parents up for an interest free loan right? Right?
@ Turner Nation
How do you know when a Gen Xer is talking??
Who the hell cares….nobody listens anyways.
Cpt. Serious, & Ian Prittie, if you want to go down the mudhole of thinking that Canada’s central bank is somehow ‘controlled’ by Janet Yellen, and not by domestic conditions in the Canadian economy, there’s probably not much I can say or write to move you away from that belief. No amount of pointing to the storm clouds of housing-collapse induced deflation, the rapidly strengthened Canadian dollar, the significant recent fall in oil prices, the comatose Canadian stock market, nor the dismal Canadian employment scene will move your view.
What I can do is wish you good luck, and if Poloz and the BoC insist on running contrary to the actual economic data, that the reaction in the markets is likely to be far more severe than it ought to have been.
So diversify and invest accordingly, but its bizarre that anyone can watch Canada’s consumer debt bubble and the sheer extent to which it has inflated, and think that the outcome is going to be anything but systemically deflationary when it pops. And that almost always means much lower (policy) interest rates. But its entirely possible that I’m wrong in the short term, and Poloz will make a huge mistake.
#83 Crypto Millionaire
Congrats!
I saw a couple of month ago the baby-faced Vitalik Buterin walking down on Yonge street. Nobody recognized the Russian immigrant geek in t-shirt and jeans, who invented Ethereum, that made you millionaire, probably while he was still at U of Waterloo.
Last week he had a meeting with Putin to discuss the creation of a Russian state crypto currency.
He, like Elon Musk moved on from Canada, we don’t seem to keep these guys.
Anyway…
You might cash out half of your gain, your biggest problem is CRA and your tax return.
Garth might know what rules apply – if there is any, specific for this asset class – for investment gains on crypto.
I am also curious to know for selfish reasons…
“Tech booming”
Still up with that nonsense Troll? Sad.
#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.20.17 at 10:31 pm
@#105 How Weird
“Millennial buyers should get together and refuse to buy a house off anyone over 60 without a minimum 30% discount. …”
++++++++
Sooooo, I guess that means you wont hit your Boomer parents up for an interest free loan right? Right?
———————-
Weird and proud! Glad you noticed.
Personally no I would never ask for, nor would I accept, down payment cash from my parents, and especially not at current RE prices.
Boomer parents who do shell out large sums so that their offspring can set themselves up in fancy digs, do so often for their vanity rather than their children’s comfort. Their entire adult lives were spent in a “who can display more obscene wealth” materialistic arms race with their neighbours. What better way than bragging that young Michael or Jennifer bought a new-build $2M 3500 sq ft house in Richmond Hill?
#101 Smoking Man on 06.20.17 at 10:10 pm
Don’t blame millenials, its their mental case teachers that made them mental.
Wrong…
Teaching starts and ends at home and that isn’t happening.
Gen X Parents are to blame for this crop of kids where everyone “wins” and Gold Stars are handed out for showing up.
Deplorables win in Georgia.
5 million of good vs 50 million of evil.
MSM your done. Wynee, T2. And master mind @gmbutts.
You lose again. Picked the wrong Nictonite to back.
Big Shlong Zumanga peaked before me.
Ian Prittie on 06.20.17 at 9:01 pm
I tried to tell you maaas that the BoC would raise on 12 July yesterday, and some intellectual said ‘not a chance’. The chance is 100% – that’s why they trotted out Wilkins to say so.
All over the world they will go UPPA UP UP. low interest experiment has FAILED. Now interest rates will go up as the indebted scream in financial pain. Housing prices will crash 75% OVER the next 5 years in Canada. Higher interest rates and automation killing jobs.
Regarding Ontario:
NO meaningful rent control
NO meaningful tax of property speculators (definitely NO enforcement)
NO meaningful rise in the BoC interest rate
Any bets that my predictions are going to be wrong?
#116 Interest rates going UPPA UP UP on 06.20.17 at 11:02 pm
Now interest rates will go up as the indebted scream in financial pain.
———————-
This would be my dream come true. That and thousands of realtors in the unemployment line and handing out their CVs at Tim Hortons.
#96 SimVan on 06.20.17 at 10:04 pm
I don’t understand how anyone who has the privilege of being born and raised in Canada, who was educated in English for free, and has free access to health care can complain.
Blame yourself. You are the cause of your own misfortune.
—
Congrats for your and your family’s achievements.
This is not a “millennial” or “Canadian” issue…
Take some time and read the excellent book from the German writer, Thomas Mann: Buddenbrooks, written in 1901.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buddenbrooks
Mann describes the cycle of families from nothing to wealth than back to nothing, in a few generations.
It seems to be universal, applies from Gates to Buffett.
Be happy to be on the right side of the cycle.
Holy crap!!!! Vancouver has a tent city? Really???
So friken proud to be a Canadian!!
All in the name of the house horny!!!????
OK, here’s a question. If interest rates are rising and because of the debt we have this causes the economy to slow substantially would this not bring rates down again?
What’s with all the anti immigration rhetoric tonight? Do you know what immigrants go through when they get to Canada? As a refugee, you are in a land not being able to speak the language and need to do whatever to support your family. The $25K or whatever it was given to each Syrian family is chump change to live on.
Lets say the refugees are lazy bums just “mooching” off the system…how is that different than the “Canadians” doing that right now?!
I refuse to give homeless people in Canada any money. Why? Because I’ve seen true poverty traveling the world. Homeless Canadians have got it made. They got shelters to go to and still have their arms and legs. And spare me all the poor Canadians overdosing on drugs and such. Do you think any of the Syrians that have come over recently are doing drugs or are they just trying to survive?
As for immigrant professionals under cutting salaries of regular “Canadians”. Stop feeling so entitled and upgrade your skills. In what world is paying more for something (whether it be salaries, food, gasoline, etc..) when you can get it for less good for anyone?
#68 TurnerNation
Canola causes gout!
Based on my experience.
Just wanted to add…
Having sponsored my “immigrant” wife over to Canada just recently, I can tell everyone that the opportunities for “suckling” from the system is far and few. I had to sign a declaration that I’d be responsible for her for 5 years eg. no lining up at the welfare office. I believe the requirement may have been increased to 10 years under the anti-immigration era of Harper. The wife now having had her eyes opened about how it really is living in Canada (ironically ranked best place to live a few years back)…with all the taxes, is ready to pack it up and go back home. Her thinking is that at least in the homeland, despite widespread poverty, if you succeed, you won’t be taxed to death for your success.
SM I’ll check. This blog is about #hairintheAwfulPlaces.
Toys still dropping in YYC. Daddy take the T-bird away already! No fun, 25% drop:
http://wwwa.autotrader.ca/a/Ferrari/355+Spider/Calgary/Alberta/5_30918890_20130628093641701/
Current Price$82,980
Discounted June 13, 2017$92,980
Discounted May 27, 2017$99,980
Originally listed for$109,980
Re: interest rates
Apparently we need to be taught a serious lesson since we cannot think for ourselves. Case in point: HELOC, especially 3rd party lenders (affroved; to remind you of that extremely annoying commercial). We all wanted to be Simple Investors. NOT!!!!
Amazing how a bunch of imbeciles can warp our (some of our) thinking.
I like money but I hate what we’ve become.
#83 Crypto Millionaire
Wait for ETH price > BTC price. (That will happen.)
And then sell half your position ETH.
Let the rest ride for at least a decade more.
Even if it’s like a Tulip Mania: that hausse lasted at least 4 decades before it imploded. (Granted, news travelled slower in 1640 than in 2017, so maybe account for that.)
A million dollars is cool.
A billion dollars is something else though: secured wealth for generations after you.
Buy a few islands in the Arctic and let Global Warming thaw it for you :-)
PS: Don’t forget to declare capital gains with CRA though. You owe taxes on it.
Excerpt from a Kelowna Realtor’s monthly news letter:
Okanagan home sales spike in May! 31% surge in Sales over last month (617 units vs. 807 units), yet 72 units off May 2016’s record breaking month.
There are 376 fewer places on the market than last year representing a –13.17% drop. Last year there were: residential – 859 units, condo – 399 units, townhouse – 246 units compared to 2017; residential – 788 units, condo – 353 units, townhouses – 237 units.
The average home price shot up to $703,809 in May 2017. 17% increase year over year. That equates to the average home buyer paying $102,581 dollars more for the same home.
Consumers will likely find rising prices, short turn-arounds between when a property is listed and when it is sold and multiple offer situations – all of which make for conditions that are challenging to navigate.
Actually, that’s the one thing I look forward to when this bubble bursts… no more annoying real estate ‘get rich quick’ commercials.
Do you remember Tom Vu??? The appitomy of the ’91/92′ crash. You too, can have all this! ….he eventually had to play poker. Lol
#46- According to a Canadian Realty Consultant Vancouver house prices have come down and are continuing to come down but it’s not being advertised…misleading the public is their game…….their livelihood…………
#83
A million dollars won’t even buy you a house in Toronto. Take out a loan and go all in, now is the time to be aggressive. Imagine how much better $100 million would be instead of $1 million. You can do it!
will it be the crash than finally ousts the left wing liberals from power in impoverished province of Ontario?? so we can go back to no minimum wage rates? and scrap the LTT all together in all Ontario municipalities?
#99 Howard on 06.20.17 at 10:09 pm
Screwed Canadian Millennial
…However I certainly hope you did not vote Liberal in 2015 as the majority of your generation did. If so, you more or less endorsed that wide-open-door agenda.
—-
Yep. Outside of the TFW program (which is really filling bottom end jobs for the most part), we have had urgings in Ottawa to increase immigration to a half million per year, most of which would make tracks towards the GTA post-haste. The GTA is already swimming in skilled labour and white collar professionals such that many of these are serving coffee, driving cabs, and waiting tables to avoid starving to death. Many immigrants bail back out of Canada after 10 years of trying to make it work here. Others live 3-4 families to a house, combine paycheques, and share everything in order to pay the bills. There is at least one sweat shop out there that I know of – there are undoubtedly more.
The vast majority of new immigrants do not start new businesses and create new economic activity, but rather show up and start competing with the locals for whatever jobs are out there. Maximum immigration levels are much worse than any TFW program to an educated Millennial wanting to live in a metropolis.
Wages are dropping due to fierce competition for jobs. Vacancies are filled in a day or two for common positions. It’s a swirling meat market where no one hangs out for too long.
If SCM voted T2, he voted for maximum immigration, maximum SJW action which biasis public jobs to women and visible minorities, and maximum scare all the business investment the hell out of the country.
Hopefully, they’ll at least keep the weed taxes low…
The timing of these rate hikes make no sense. They should have been raising rates 3 years ago when housing prices started their parabolic move. Why now? All this is going to do is hurt a lot of people, they reacted way after the fact.
The BoC has just screwed the entire country. They left rates too low, too long. And now a debt crisis is inevitable. Trump might make American great again, and that should terrify everyone. Because once those tax cuts and incentives to bring home USD are put into action, the US stock market will soar, inflation will rise, rates will go up aggressively.
Canadians really have no clue the tsunami that is coming for debtors. It is going to be really painful. My advice? Get long US stocks, get out of debt, rent, and prey rising US rates don’t start off a chain of sovereign defaults around the world. If that does start to happen, you’ll need assets that protect against a currency collapse.
#118 n1tro on 06.20.17 at 11:29 pm
Just wanted to add…
Having sponsored my “immigrant” wife over to Canada just recently, I can tell everyone that the opportunities for “suckling” from the system is far and few. I had to sign a declaration that I’d be responsible for her for 5 years eg. no lining up at the welfare office. I believe the requirement may have been increased to 10 years under the anti-immigration era of Harper.
—————————
250k-300k a year during the Harper era is anti-immigration??
The government is elected to serve the interests of Canadian citizens. Some people forget this.
we all know 5y fixed will stay within 2.29% to 2.99% for next five years if not a decade
why lie…
Millennial buyers should get together and refuse to buy a house off anyone over 60 without a minimum 30% discount.
——————————————————-
I would truly love to see that.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NEXT:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
n1tro: The wife now having had her eyes opened about how it really is living in Canada (ironically ranked best place to live a few years back)…with all the taxes, is ready to pack it up and go back home.
————————————————–
If I were you I’d go back with her if it’s to eastern Europe / Russia / Poland
Yawn ……… ..#10 is right for those of us who waited for even a 10 % correction in 2014 , would now require 30 % to get back to 2014 plus whatever you wished to happen in 2014 …….
If the ETH price > BTC price that will be the downfall of cryptocurrencies. Because people will awaken to the fact that although no one can produce more ‘Bitcoins’ or ‘Devcoins’ or whatever, whole new cryptocurrencies can simply come along and render the existing ones obsolete.
“The BoC has just screwed the entire country. They left rates too low, too long.”
How so? The BoC’s mandate is pretty simple, keep inflation at or near 2%. And if you look at the inflation figures, they’ve done a pretty decent job at such.
The real problem is that the Government of Canada has implemented policy (along with certain policy moves at the provincial level) to pump RE investment to the exclusion of almost all other kinds of investment.
The CMHC, through its CMHC subprime mortgage insurance program, basically made investing in RE and financing RE an impossible-to-lose-money proposition for both RE investors, as well as the banks. CMHC drove down interest rates for subprime borrowers, to the extent that they were paying effectively just a few more basis points than pristine prime borrowers, even though 95% LTV in any sort of asset class, let alone very illiquid real estate, is an extremely risky proposition deserving of a very substantial risk premium.
There is no doubt in my mind that if the CMHC and its CMHC subprime mortgage insurance program didn’t exist, that the Canadian economy more likely would be quite a bit more balanced, and able/willing to allocate capital to sectors outside of RE based on the merit principle. The use of government’s power of fiat to direct money into any specific sector usually does not end well for those who invest in such a sector, as eventually even government cannot tolerate the losses and poor economic performance that comes from such.
But the BoC, deserves no blame for what has happened in Canada. Poloz, Carney, Dodge, merely did exactly what was commanded of them in the Bank of Canada’s mandate. It is worth pointing out that BoC Governor Dodge (as well as our very own Garth) strenuously argued, at the highest levels, against the CMHC at times when it was clear that the CMHC was undergoing significant mandate expansion in a manner that was not even meaningfully politically nor publicly debated.
#96 SimVan on 06.20.17 at 10:04 pm
When screwed Canadian Millennial comments all I can hear is a the high pitcher wail of an infant.
Your situation is the result of your own shortcomings. If you are screwed it is because you spend your time being pathetic and talking about how hard your life is.
My parents are immigrants who came to this country with nothing. My mom cleaned tables in a cafeteria and then worked as a janitor in a hospital and my dad drove cab. They worked minimum wage jobs and often worked two jobs at the same time.
More recently my cousins came to Canada and work at Macs store and a gas station for minimum wage. They saved enough money to buy a house 10 years after they arrived in this country with nothing.
I myself have been working since I was 14 and put myself through two professional degrees.
I don’t understand how anyone who has the privilege of being born and raised in Canada, who was educated in English for free, and has free access to health care can complain.
Blame yourself. You are the cause of your own misfortune.
————
Good for you.
I envy you for your fortitude and for making Canada stronger.
Please keep on busting your ass until you have a stroke or a heart attack.
Jeez, get a life.
#59 JustMe on 06.20.17 at 8:23 pm
The Vienna model for housing sanity
No housing shortage, no waiting lists, no Ponzi scheme-like market scramble. Can Vancouver learn anything from the Austrian way?
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/what-vancouver-can-learn-from-the-vienna-model-for-affordablehousing/article35128683/
—————-
No surprise.
Vienna and Austria Best Place on Earth.
#121 Crypto
Ethereum is an over priced token and already headed down. With over 1 million new Eth created every month,70 million Eth pre-mined for its creators, and and total of 92 million Eth tokens in circulation after less than a year, just a matter of time before people see the Eth over-supply problem. Ethereum is not scarce enough to be valuable.
#135 Howard
Despite what the thought police doesn’t want people to say but immigration numbers are to high. Alot of Canadians are feeling like they are living in someone else’s country. Some colleges have more international students then Canadian born. Btw international students is big Canadian business for vested interests. The Few Canadians that run Canada benefiting large but the rest are suffering. I’m jealous of those that run the show in Canada at the expence of everyone. This clip below nothing to do with immigration but Canadians are starting to lose it as they see Canada they grew up in is now long gone.
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/woman-demanding-white-doctor-not-an-isolated-incident-says-head-of-ontario-medical-association-1.4170142
Mark and the Interest Rates and the Canadian dollar
Mark at 80 claims to explain low Candain dollar and to predict future interest rates. He said:
In essence, the housing bubble is what has kept the CAD$ down, relatively speaking, against the USD$. As Canadians have been borrowing CAD$ and selling it almost as fast as they can, to purchase imported goods and services.
As the housing bubble collapses, Canadian of consumption age will most likely have a lot less CAD$ they can actually borrow and spend. Additionally, there will be significant and intense demand for CAD$ to repay existing and prior debts. The net result of this is significant demand for CAD$, deflation, and the likely necessity of an extended period of very low rates.
…There is no significant amount of CAD$ overseas, nor Canadian foreign debt offshore to act as demand on the Canadian economy.
**************************************
Long post with never a link to a single source of claims.
So, no significant CAD$ overseas? Well what happened to all the CAD dollars you say were traded for imports? Did they come back here to pay for exports or for Canadian real estate? If so there goes the theory that this pushed the $CAD dollar down?
Mark and others spout opinion as fact.
The future is always hard to predict. Might be better to react to what comes than to make any heavy bets predicting macro developments. Buffett claims that he never considers macro forecasts in his investments. Never has, never will. But what does he know?
#47 Screwed Canadian Millenial
Thanks for your Post.
I have made a point of listening, reading, and paying attention to what the young people of today are saying about what they are dealing with in all aspects of their lives. It does indeed have merit.
I am a Boomer. I have no advice you have not already heard.
I started out on my own at 17 because I had no choice. I still ended up being able to live an awesome life.
That being said, I honestly would not trade places today with any millennial.
Hiring a TFW is better in most employers view even at the same wage. A TFW shows up everyday, rarely complains and works hard. They have to or they get deported. Local workers show up most days but not all, complain daily (see Screwed Millennial) and will think nothing of leaving with no notice after you spend 2 months training them. A local has a safety net and can leave the job at will. A TFW is under contract and goes back to the third word country without the job. Big difference between motivation to keep the job. All things being equal the TFW wins. Locals need to up their compete if they want to work in a field where a TFW can fill the job.
Re:
#81 Jose on 06.20.17 at 9:34 pm
Poloz seems clueless to me. A few months ago the guy was talking about cutting rates. Looks like He has no clue what is going on or what to do. The USA makes the decisions and he follows.
Finance Minister Morneau just came back from the Bilderberg Conference and that’s who make the decisions.
I think there are some really confused people who are lumping immigrants, refugees, and TFW’s into one category and considering them as all having the same status and impact (or lack thereof) on the economy. Hardly.
The country was built by immigrants, so it’s bit ridiculous and can certainly drift quickly into xenophobic nonsense to be “against immigration”. It definitely requires some careful policy choices as to the selection and rate. But immigration is necessary when the native birth rate is so low.
And refugees, too, deserve to be assisted within reason. I have no problem with wealthy nations helping less fortunate ones voluntarily.
My problem is with the TFW program, specifically, the way it’s used to avoid the expense of investment in the training and development of the next generation of Canadian workers. Not with the TFW’s themselves, who are only trying to make the best of what’s offered to them, like anyone.
In addition the program is quite despicable as it puts these workers into a different category from other immigrants where once their contract is up, they’re shipped out. So they’re always vulnerable and uncertain. I always thought Canadian immigration philosophy, if not policy, was to give people a chance: basically if you met the criteria to enter, worked hard, contributed, after a reasonable period of time you get a chance to apply for citizenship.
The TFW program is more like the Middle East foreign worker model, where the expats are used for their labour and then are kicked out.
Making Canada more like Dubai is hardly my idea of progress.
#99 Howard on 06.20.17 at 10:09 pm
Screwed Canadian Millennial
I share your skepticism of Canada’s current immigration policy.
However I certainly hope you did not vote Liberal in 2015 as the majority of your generation did. If so, you more or less endorsed that wide-open-door agenda.
***************
Let’s not tell the lad how he should have voted.
@Screwed Canadian Millennial
If I were you:
1) Take a breath – not all boomers are bad some are good = and we all have our own interests in mind. I graduated from University during a recession and a housing bust.
2) Invest in your education (but don’t over invest). Get a foundation and acquire more if needed along the way.
3) Be willing and prepared to move for an opportunity.
4) Stay liquid, live cheap, enjoy your age, enjoy life, go traveling. Things change and life happens, your time will come.
6) Do not buy a house, it will be a ball and chain at your age.
7) And every generation bitches about every other generation. My grandfathers generation used to call the boomers entitled, lazy, whiners, (hippies) who were wet behind the ears and then the boomers were gracious enough to return the favor to Generation X (what happened to Gen Y?). Anyways I will break the cycle.
You are living in a time of extremes and it is all that you know to date but things will change. Seems like a slow escalator ride up – sometimes. Just relax, enjoying being young, chill and wait til the day you can say “I told you so”. Not petty just factual. Be ready to pounce.
Canada 30 year bond rate this morning is 1.99%. Last year BREXIT it reached all the way down to a rock bottom 1.55% low!!!
The U.S. Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates but longer term bond rates keeping dropping.
Wait until stock, equity markets and job losses pile up in coming years with higher part-time, higher taxes and regulation.
Business will suffer and so will the economy. The bond markets of the world are screaming Japan like economic malaise.
#134 Fuzzy Camel on 06.20.17 at 11:51 pm
I don’t think you understand what parabolic is. The GTA didn’t start going parabolic until 2016 when prices across the 416/905 were growing 20-25% YOY and bidding wars were all over the city. Prior to that we just had an unrelenting climb.
How to destroy an economy in 10 easy steps (aka “having fun with the play dough of sheeple”):
Step 1- As a powerful enabler, support a scumbag industry with a view to increase the velocity of money.
Step 2- Adopt a yuuuuuge laissez-faire attitude towards resulting emotional manipulation. Works to perfection with standard Canadian sheeple.
Step 3- Encourage FOMOs and the greedy to play their roles of gorging on debt precisely as expected. This requires help from another scumbag industry, with lotsa advertising about how much money is in the attic.
Step 4- Enjoy tax revenues flowing from conditioned and habituated fear and greed. High fives on the hill, eh wot?
Step 5- Carry on enjoying said tax revenues. Rinse and repeat.
Step 6- Ignore warning signs indicating that sheeple income is nowhere near keeping pace with levels of debt snorfling.
Step 7- Develop a calloused view of young people unable to get traction with both jobs and housing.
Step 8- Deploy regular, timed doses of social engineering via msm designed to “calm the masses” with the meme of “watching the economy closely”.
Step 9- As the economy continues to weirdify, make more noises about “watching the economy closely”.
Step 10- Try every convoluted trick in the macroeconomic playbook to try to buy time so that the economy fixes itself. That one’s so cute……never worked before and won’t work now. Unless you’re talking about picking a scab……
And now for the light bulb moment: Finally have an epiphany and realize that for far too long now the real economy has degraded and is messed up to the point where the level of resentment of many of our young is a powder keg. The quality of what once was Canada’s robust economy has changed, and not in a good way.
A suitable metaphor might be jugglers spinning plates on the end of sticks. Let’s see if these jugglers can apply much-needed brakes and bring down all of the plates without breaking any.
Not. There will be casualties, but that’s life among debtors. Purging excess debt, and that’s putting it mildly, is what’s needed now.
Despite all of our computing capability, a team of chimps might have produced better results.
Time to repair the damage and raise rates. Slowly, steadily and continuously.
Mark and others spout opinion as fact.
That’s how he got banned at RFD. Still wrong about gold, currency, interest rates, real estate, etc. and too much trolling newbs
#99 Howard on 06.20.17 at 10:09 pm
#133 IHCTD9 on 06.20.17 at 11:50 pm
The immigration issue is a touchy subject for some, but I see it as a positive. Let me weigh in.
I was born in the GTA and have lived here my whole life. Our immigration policy IS actually working well, and has been for years. If anyone has any minor social skills, and is able to communicate in person with some of our recent immigrants, you will see for yourself. It’s actually hard to become a Canadian citizen. We usually only take young, educated people (or families).
Almost all of them work whatever job they can get, are happy to be in Canada, and will do anything for Canadian citizenship.
I’ve seen tons of Indians and Sri Lankens work their asses off in low level jobs. A lot of them retrain and then enter the workforce at a higher level while they start families. Is there something wrong with that? Recently it’s been Filipinos and Chinese. One Filipino woman I knew brought her two sons here, both of them were employed at Tim Hortons before even setting foot in the country and are now studying while working, as an example.
And of course, as I have mentioned a few times on here, my gf is one of these TFW’s and so are all her friends.
They all:
Cannot wait for citizenship, work hard with dreams of starting lives here, consume tons of crap at the mall (lol), and are friendly, peaceful, and assimilate extremely well.
Not all immigrants are like this, but from what I have seen, it’s working well, at least in the GTA.
#146 Freedom First on 06.21.17 at 2:12 am
Interesting. A much different opinion than than when you called me a “whiny millennial” a while back before I told you I have been working two jobs for years. Maybe I got through to you? Good.
MF
#147 BS on 06.21.17 at 2:20 am
As I have posted a few times on here before again, Canadian millennials are divided into 2 groups:
1) delusional, complains about everything, shows up late, lazy, smokes pot, voted T2
2) wide awake about his or her value, works as hard as they can with whatever job they can get (while aiming high), works 6-7 days a week, complains, but less (lol). Did not vote T2.
The first group is very vocal and screws it up for the second group.
MF
Crypto Millionaire
I spend 3500 CAD USD a month.
Are the CAD USD the ones with Obama’s picture on them? We have some with T2’s picture on them but they only hold value in the Canadian version Monopoly games.
btw, sell at least enough to get your original investment back so worst case scenario is break even.
Although I would sell at least half to hedge the risk; in your scenario of a potential double or bust, by selling half you set yourself up for pocketing 500k – 1.5mil instead of range 0 – 2mil.
bears and bulls make $, pigs get slaughtered.
Never mind interest rates; pronouns will be the next worry.
@#150 Don
Not bad, but you left out, ” Stay thirsty my friend”
“So, no significant CAD$ overseas? Well what happened to all the CAD dollars you say were traded for imports? Did they come back here to pay for exports or for Canadian real estate? “
All good questions. It might be helpful to note that in a liquid economy, it does not matter whether a Canadian borrows CAD$ to buy domestic supply, or borrows the same to buy foreign supply. The decrement in domestic supply caused by the borrowing and spending of CAD$ is equivalent to the borrowing and spending of CAD$ on foreign supply. The difference being, if domestic supply is not consumed by a Canadian, it is thus available for export.
So as Canadian RE continues to collapse, and Canadians have a lot less money to spend, Canada’s demand on our foreign partners will be significantly reduced. Meanwhile, Canada will have significant additional domestic supply available that can be exported. This is very supportive of the currency.
To answer your question more specifically, in 2016, for instance, Canada had a trade deficit of roughly $26B*. CAD$ foreign reserves held overseas increased by roughly $32B. So there is a good correspondence between foreign reserve accumulation and Canada’s trade deficit. In other words, the dollars that Canada exports overseas to purchase imports aren’t coming back to Canada, they’re being held by overseas entities as reserve assets.
http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/03/31/pr17108-IMF-Releases-Data-on-the-Currency-Composition-of-Foreign-Exchange-Reserves
Its worth noting that, on a per capita basis, there is dramatically less CAD$ overseas available to cause demand on the Canadian economy, than the is USD$. If you run through the math at the traditional 1:10 ratio of the Canadian economy to the US economy and population, and the CAD$/USD$ pair, 4X as many USD$ exist, per capita, overseas, than do CAD$. Thus supporting my thesis that as deflation takes hold in Canada, the Bank of Canada will have significantly less reason to attenuate its deflation-fighting monetary policy actions than the US Federal Reserve which must be mindful of maintaining the credibility of the $5T+ in USD$ foreign reserves held overseas. Therefore, I argue, Canadian and US monetary policy can differ dramatically going forward.
* I couldn’t find a direct number for the 2016 cumulative trade deficit, so I simply added the 2016 monthly numbers from this site to reach ~$26B:
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/balance-of-trade
@#113 howard
“Boomer parents who do shell out large sums so that their offspring can set themselves up in fancy digs, do so often for their vanity rather than their children’s comfort…..”
*******
And here I thought I was due to the incessant whining from the entitled brats who have never been told “No!”.
Well as Millenial parents say every day to their kids for doing the simplest of tasks, “Good job”!
Nothing like a false sense of security and a “feel good” attitude on you way to financial penury.
We should start handing out free medals at Starbucks for financial ruin.
Your SFU trained Psychologist Barrista can explain to you the benefits of the power of positive thinking far better than Tony Robbins. All while pouring you a $6 cup of overly roasted coffee that tastes like burnt dirt….
Everyone wins. No one loses.
Bottom line: things may hit the fan soon. You might wish to buy a slicker.
———–
Exactly, Garth.
Trump now has emotion for Warmbier, the perfect context for an attack on North Korea.
North Korea testing nukes, as early as today, while China speaks with the USA.
https://www.vox.com/world/2017/6/20/15841740/trump-north-korea-china-tweet-what
Trump feeling more pressure as Mueller picks up steam, but feels emboldened by the Georgia election win.
A recipe for hubris, war and DISASTER!!
While in Canada, SEARS is going down the hole, and will take our retail store economy down with it.
http://business.financialpost.com/pmn/retail-and-marketing-business-pmn/sears-canada-said-to-be-preparing-to-seek-creditor-protection-as-cash-crunch-deepens/wcm/e7b72632-ed26-4cf1-8aeb-e8a8d988847a
THE SUMMER OF HELL BEGINS !!!!!!!!
Several of my colleagues here at work on Bay Street don’t believe a housing correction is coming any time soon. In fact, they are so bullish that one is planning on buying more houses (he owns several already) should prices tank. He also claims, being an ex-left coaster, that the Vancouver market is picking right up where it left off, so where’s the problem? Others are convinced that RE can only go UP.
These are all market professionals, so one would assume that they have some deeper insight into this housing bubble. Turns out they don’t. To the extent that they all remain bullish on RE, I’ll continue renting, living debt-free and saving my money.
@#162 Trumpocalypse2017
“Exactly, Garth.”
******
Yo Howard!
Do you see how dangerous a little positive reinforcement can be?.
Hey “Poxy”! Where’s Pierre from St Ceasaire?
Or do you pull that nom de plume out on “special occasions”?
When you can truthfully sign your name “Post Apocalypse2017”
THEN and ONLY then will I believe your paranoid rants
crowdedelevatorfartz
Sorry but I hate hearing this. My boomer parents are like that, it’s called being loving and supportive. I am lucky they are like that.
I wonder what the generation that fought in ww2 felt when you guys were “sticking it to the man”..the same man who gave everything for our way of life?
The extra support has allowed me to work harder – not less, because I realize how lucky I am to have opportunities as a result.
MF
#114 TnT
“Gen X Parents are to blame for this crop of kids where everyone “wins” and Gold Stars are handed out for showing up. ”
***********
Argh. Gen X here. Can’t stand that “everyone win because everyone tried” mentality. Give it your all and you may still not win but don’t give it all and you sure won’t. Winners and losers in life, deal with it.
Many kids will have a shock when they hit the real world.
Next you have parents coming in to job interviews with their kids or call to find out why their kids didn’t get a job. Really happens.
Last thing I want is a doctor who got his diploma because he tried hard enough.
Investorsfriend, I wrote earlier: “4X as many USD$ exist, per capita, overseas, than do CAD$. ”
BTW, my apologies, the IMF data was already USD$-adjusted. It really should be “3X as many USD$ exist…”. Way too early this morning, need coffee desperately!
Mark on Canadian dollars outside the country
#160 Mark on 06.21.17 at 8:17 am
Here he shows, but does not admit or acknowledge, that he was wrong on his claim that “There is no significant amount of CAD$ overseas, nor Canadian foreign debt offshore to act as demand on the Canadian economy.”
Then he just doubles down saying well the amount is far less significant proportionally than the U.S.
For years he has posted here virtually never agreeing with anyone and constantly lecturing all including Garth. Long-winded posts designed to impress it seems.
An “interesting” approach to life.
I wrote previously to Investorsfriend: “To answer your question more specifically, in 2016, for instance, Canada had a trade deficit of roughly $26B*. CAD$ foreign reserves held overseas increased by roughly $32B.”
Slight mistake here, $32B is USD$, while $26B is CAD$. So adjusting, its $42B in CAD$ reserve accumulation versus a $26B CAD$ trade deficit.
The implication here is that not only has the entirety of the Canadian net trade deficit been financed by foreign reserve accumulators, they’re also financing the overseas purchase of assets by Canadians. In order words, quite contrary to the popular narrative of “Asian money” coming to Canada to purchase RE (allegedly in suitcases smuggled through YYZ and YVR CBSA), the evidence is that CAD$ are actually *leaving* Canada to purchase overseas assets.
Could this be the reason why the CBSA, over the past few years, has been more interested in inspecting the *outbound* bags of passengers headed to India and China, than they’ve been interested in the inbound bags? Could be…. Could “landlord families” be secreting assets overseas to avoid having them confiscated when their highly leveraged Canadian RE empires collapse? Could wealthy “Chinese” be actually *selling* Canadian RE in order to prop up distressed businesses in China? There can be lots of possible explanations, but one thing is for sure, the likelihood of “foreign money” driving Canadian RE in 2016 is slim to none with those reserve accumulation and trade balance numbers.
#147 BS on 06.21.17 at 2:20 am
Hiring a TFW is better in most employers view even at the same wage. A TFW shows up everyday, rarely complains and works hard. They have to or they get deported. Local workers show up most days but not all, complain daily (see Screwed Millennial) and will think nothing of leaving with no notice after you spend 2 months training them. A local has a safety net and can leave the job at will. A TFW is under contract and goes back to the third word country without the job. Big difference between motivation to keep the job. All things being equal the TFW wins. Locals need to up their compete if they want to work in a field where a TFW can fill the job.
===================================
If a compliant, subservient workforce eager to please for fear of losing their job and much more easily exploited than “locals with a safety net” is the goal, yes, TFW’s are the way to go. I lived/worked in Dubai for over a decade. I’m acutely aware of how it works.
But it doesn’t really fit with the “sunny ways” Canada that is foisted as a public image. At least the Emiratis are up honest about what the foreigners are there for.
#149 BillyBob on 06.21.17 at 4:08 am
…But immigration is necessary when the native birth rate is so low.
_________________________
Not to keep brow beating the Canadian Millennials but… :)
This is another point where you just have to stand back and agree it’s the truth.
We don’t want to be Japan, but Millennial Canadians of the urban persuasion are largely passing on marriage and kids altogether. The youth of the entire Western world are doing the same to varying degrees. Even the children of immigrants themselves are not doing the 2.1 kids/woman needed to replace the population.
That can mean only one thing – you either bleed out your economy, or you go nuts with immigration trying to keep the welfare state funded by importing your taxpayers. Private sector employment numbers and labour participation are directly tied to government revenues.
When you look back on Western Civilization since 1960, it’s pretty easy to pick out all the little things that combined to kill off our fertility rates over a few decades. Western Civilization itself is essentially the culprit, and it appears it may be a “self-fixing” problem.
If individual expectations in life are so high that we temper our reproduction to ensure said expectations are met – then our government will need to import the tax slaves. But, in only one generation, these same folks are doing likewise.
I look at the Millennial generation and it’s pretty grim. The list of reasons for Men to pass on marriage entirely has never been longer, nor has skipping marriage been so easily done. Women put big emphasis on education and careers – conception can wait till later – like 35+. Hook up culture and online dating complicate things for the average Male, especially Western Men who are not white or black. Finally you have government unwittingly doing everything in its power to ensure Men not only say the hell with legal unions, but feel it might be a good idea to leave the country all together.
I guess the Millennials are just along for the ride on this one, but I’d have to guess the forces that are beating them down will not stop – rather, probably get worse.
Govern yourselves accordingly.
“Here he shows, but does not admit or acknowledge, that he was wrong on his claim that “There is no significant amount of CAD$ overseas, nor Canadian foreign debt offshore to act as demand on the Canadian economy.”
Well fair enough, you don’t like me, but I did provide a full rebuttal to your question, did I not? Considering the amount of capital that Canada needed to import to build out the oilsands, or even its infrastructure historically including the most recent extreme investment in domestic RE capacity, only having $160B in CAD$ overseas is quite minimal in the whole scheme of things. Considering the quantity of capital assets Canada imported in support our oil and gas industry, as well as the mineral industry over the past decade, $160B is actually a small number. If you contrast against the United States, CAD$ overseas is quite insignificant in comparison to our largest trading partner and the “other” side of the CAD$/USD$ pair that is commonly spoken of when valuing the CAD$. I stand by my use of words. Do you have a rebuttal, or are you just going to fling mud?
#161 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.21.17 at 8:18 am
We should start handing out free medals at Starbucks for financial ruin.
______
Now THAT – was funny LOL!
It seems that the larger centers in the GTA are the ones that are closest to turning in the negative territory! (Brampton/Mississauga presently being the exemption)
Something big is happening! Just a matter of time until these large centers dip in the red, the outer regions will then drop even quicker then they already are.
From Zolo: Yearly average price % change (Jun 18 2016 – Jun 18 2017)
Aurora 1.5%
Markham 4.1
Newmarket 2.6
Oakville 1.3
Richmond Hill 0.8
Vaughan 3.7
Ajax 24.5
Bradford West Gwillimbury 25.7
Brampton 18.3
Caledon 25.1
East Gwillimbury 7.0
Georgina 19.7
Halton Hills 7.2
King -14.5
Milton 13.3
Mississauga 11.5
Mono 47.8
New Tecumseth 24.9
Orangeville 26
Pickering 18.1
Uxbridge 27.5
Whitchurch-stouffville 24.8
Year/year price changes are irrelevant when month/month numbers are rapidly evolving. — Garth
#58 TalkingPie
That’s not the point Screwed Millennial Canadian is making. Don’t assume SCM is not meaningfully employed. Your personal situation has little to do with the millions of hopeless Canadian youth out there. There is a paradigm shift taking shape beneath our feet, others are more aware of it and more affected by it than you (I’m assuming you are paid by taxpayers since who else gives out DBPs nowadays other than the Government?)
What a disaster the economy is. It all starts and ends with the banks. They gleefully created this mess on the back of the CMHC lackey and now they are cleaning it up with the blood of Canadians, present and future. For this reason alone, interest rates are going up, not because of any perceived ‘growth’. The real enemy to Canada is the entrenched banking families, like I’ve always maintained.
They suppress wages, they increase inflation, they increase taxes, they stunt real growth, they suck your wealth like parasites. They get richer while you get poorer, all of it legislated by your government.
According to Realosophy, sales continue to croak. In the first week of this month detached deals collapsed 44% year/year while 22% fewer condos changed hands. Last week was worse – the declines were 47% and 24% respectively – and this is at a time when no interest rates have yet increased.
Realosophy’s chart: Number of Sales GTA freehold properties: the 2017 line shows a decided drop the first week of April where it crosses the 2016 line.
This is the perfect storm – what we’re seeing right now is credit exhaustion and bank reaction. Banks can simply reduce the mortgages they write without explanation or announcement. Another thing they can do is instruct the house appraisers to chop 20% off their appraisals. I mean they’re paying them. I think that rising interest rates will be the third element. The fact that the US Fed has steadily raised the interest rates is yuge. Yuge!
By the way: legislation that Ontario has recently passed is just going to make things worse. I expect that as the real estate catastrophe comes into focus, the Province of Ontario will make silly little changes.
Ross Kay joke of the week:
“bank employees work for the bank”
#146 Freedom First on 06.21.17 at 2:12 am
#47 Screwed Canadian Millenial
Thanks for your Post.
I have made a point of listening, reading, and paying attention to what the young people of today are saying about what they are dealing with in all aspects of their lives. It does indeed have merit.
I am a Boomer. I have no advice you have not already heard.
I started out on my own at 17 because I had no choice. I still ended up being able to live an awesome life.
That being said, I honestly would not trade places today with any millennial.
Getting married off at the age of 17 can be tough for a young woman. Did your parents give you any say about who your husband would be or did you just have to suck it up and pretend like you were happy?
If Zolo is to be believed:
YVR SFH median price and Town-home median price have been flat over the last 12 months.
YVR Condo median price is up pretty sharp, from 600K to 700K in 12 months.
And remember: this 12 months are all post-foreigner tax.
http://imgur.com/lXoQXcS
Increasing immigration to get prosperity is rear view mirror thinking. If more people were the answer, the Philippines would be an economic powerhouse.
A technological revolution has already started. Fewer workers will be needed every year but existing workers will need greater technological skills.
Jack Ma was on CNBC this morning predicting a four hour, four day week for workers.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/21/alibabas-jack-ma-says-people-will-work-four-hours-a-day-in-30-years.html
We need more farm workers. I don’t think so.
https://www.michfb.com/MI/Farm-News/See-the-future-A-tractor-without-a-seat/
In my town, Hamilton, a sanctuary city (?) and clapped out steel town, immigration has been a big part of the Liberal trifecta here. Those left behind by Globalism and technology have been left to fend for themselves.
Investments in technology, training and re-training have not made a noticeable difference. ‘Art is the new steel,’ won’t save this city.
Avalanche Alert
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-06-21/canada-s-housing-bubble-will-burst
Regarding Mark and his prognostications:
A blog dog poll was taken by GT a few years ago, turf Mark or let him stay. Being the charitable, albeit masochistic rabble we are, SM even took to calling him “the robot”.
Every so often an apoplectic newbie gets sucked in to the vortex and tries to address glaring gaps in his credibility.
Tread carefully, life is short
I tend to stay away from millenials, because all my run ins with them leaves me with bitter after tastes. On one occasion, the ladder at a facility was being used by me and soneone else. The guy asked us one after another if we are using it. After we both said yes, he the proceed to whine at me about what the rightful way if ladder usage should be.I told him to take the ladder and leave me his contact info and he hesitated. Then proceed to whine more.
This is my experience in general with any run ins with the millenials.
Came to this nation with nothing. I shut my trap up and got a job at 16. Paid rent on my own place at 18 and worked through university where my grades suffered as a result of supporting myself.
Trying to find skilled job with my degree while most employers hires white first in my field or considers me as a low cost alternative. Even though I am more qualified.
As immigrant you are often just a cheaper alternative like new foreign workers, doesn’t matter if you are more Canadians than most canadians. How many Canadians can say they speak fluent French and English?
But despite all these I soldiered on and enjoyed the fruits of my labour. So stop whining and do something about your shitty situation.
“Poloz seems clueless to me. A few months ago the guy was talking about cutting rates. Looks like He has no clue what is going on or what to do. The USA makes the decisions and he follows.”
No doubt about that. Problem is the CB’s everywhere are out of dry powder aka cutting rates. They are reaching the threshold of catastrophe between tax revenue and budget demands, too much debt, and bubbles caused by zero cost money. Seems to me the fiat exponential debt model has reached its nadir.
Chris Martenson is quite correct in his theories models and predictions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYyugz5wcrI
Pink Lemonade being sipped in Surrey.
Didn’t feel right to write ” Pink Lemonade falling…”
Anyway,these guys have been at it for the best part of 8 months.
Paid 1.15 April 2016 and is assessed at 1.24
My theory is some of these people don’t really want to sell their house.
They are just lonely and enjoy strangers coming over each weekend…
M43BC
12690 19 Avenue, Surrey.
Oct 28:$1,588,000
Jun 16: $988,888
Change: – 599112.00 -38%
https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=12690%2019%20Avenue,%20Surrey&ptype_condo=1&ptype_house=1&ptype_townhouse=1&filter=1
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA3NlVLNw==
Pink Lemonade being sipped in Richmond.
Someone has set up a lemonade stand out in Richmond too,gotta recoup the difference somehow.
These guys are into it 1.36 from Feb 16 and they have an assessment to support this number.
Another six month slog.
The assessment says yes ,the market says no…
M43BC
9551 Palmer Road, Richmond .
Dec 22:$1,599,000
Jun 13: $1,288,888
Change: – 310112.00 -19%
https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/9551-palmer-road
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1WFBHRw==
“Increasing immigration to get prosperity is rear view mirror thinking. If more people were the answer, the Philippines would be an economic powerhouse.”
I cannot see how adding sheep to an already denuded field can help anybody. Banks and votes….maybe.
Fact is…the highest birthrate countries are by far the most wretched on the planet, and everybody wants out.
My honest opinion: the exponential debt function requires new debtors too expand….or collapse is inevitable. Not complicated.
Pink Lemonade being sipped in Vancouver.
Pink lemonade the flavour of the month in Vancouver….you betcha!
The guys might have fresh granite to slurp off as the listing states freshly renovated.
Paid 1.64 in April 2016 ,combine that with the Reno and there is no money to be made here.
Only a sugar fix…
M43BC
6975 Vivian Street, Vancouver.
Apr 30:$1,950,000
Jun 14: $1,698,000
Change: – 252000.00 -13%
https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/6975-vivian-street
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMzk3Qw==
tax fraud syndicate
http://www.smh.com.au/business
“Some of the money allegedly raised by a $130 million tax fraud scheme was laundered through Lebanon by a north shore builder before eventually finding its way to an eastern suburbs extortionist, new court documents reveal.
Nine people, including the son and daughter of former Tax Office deputy commissioner Michael Cranston, have been charged with running the syndicate that allegedly skimmed PAYG tax from legitimate employees using a web of payroll administration companies.
https://twitter.com/ICIJorg/status/877463610032889856
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ato-tax-fraud-former-obeid-lawyer-sevag-chalabian-received-24-million-extortion-payment-20170601-gwhwac.html
#7 Millenial905er on 06.20.17 at 5:54 pm
“Meanwhile, Realtors are more arrogant and presumptuous than ever before.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BVh9SCNA7iH/
Barf.”
Same old, same old bs emanating from realtards. I am however, amazed that the image selected appears to be from the film “Liar Liar”.
It bears remembering that there will be tsunami after tsunami of realtard bs and polemic furiously protesting any government action intended to improve economic conditions for Canadians in tightening the money supply.
Realtards have had it too good for too long and this has destroyed a large part of the economy.
Rather than enjoying an economic environment of slightly slower but steadier growth, we now have barely contained fear leading to massive over-borrowing and malinvestment, a climate of declining personal wealth and a pervasive, sickening feeling of all security being stripped out of people’s lives.
I’d barf about that.
#69 – IHTDC9
The term is ‘kife’ – which means something of poor quality — junk/crap/garbage
e.g. “The pressed-cornflake McMansion in Milton is nothing but kife”
Have not heard the word in years, but an old British friend of mine used it extensively…
Pink Lemonade being sipped in Richmond.
Looks like the other guys who set up a lemonade stand in Richmond have some competition.
These guys are trying to muscle in on them by spending 1.38 in April 2016 and just like the other guys have been at it for over half a year.
A few months ago ,people on here that were getting impatient waiting to vultch complained to me it was taking too long to play out and I preached patience.
The sellers are being made to wait and that means you have to as well…
M43BC
9844 Ashwood Drive, Richmond .
Nov 16:$1,398,000
Jun 13: $1,368,000
Change: – 30000.00 -2%
https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=9844%20Ashwood%20Drive,%20Richmond&filter=1
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1V1VITg==
Attn: 604 Greater Fools.
My husband and I need to add a new circle of people we surround ourselves with. Wanted to put this out there – if a local meet-up of Greater Fools was organized, would you come out, meet other Gartheads and commiserate/relish the demise of the impending fiscal environment we’ll be facing? I’m tired of conversations with moisters who are ra-ra real estate here. thx!
#118 Howard on 06.20.17 at 11:12 pm
———————-
This would be my dream come true. That and thousands of realtors in the unemployment line and handing out their CVs at Tim Hortons.
—————————————————————-
Hate to disappoint you but as usual you Azz is sucking wind!
Realtor’s in the unemployment line ? Agents do not qualify for U.I. benefits , Over time, vacation pay, defined pensions, Sick days, extended health or Dental benefits.
Uppa up in Vaughan. But will they close. 905 Hinterland.
From Bisnow magazine
“Exclusive: Transit City Sells Out Tower Units In Vaughan In Two Weeks
The first two residential towers for Transit City, part of the development changing Vaughan’s core, have sold out, with all 1,100 condo units snapped up in two weeks.
“People responded in a record-setting way,” said Shamez Virani, president of CentreCourt, Transit City’s developer. “Of all the launches in all the years of the condo market in Toronto, nothing like this has happened before. The response has been beyond…”
Two HuffPost articles that will make you laugh (or sob for whats left of Huffpost integrity)
5 Reasons Why The Toronto Housing Market Won’t Crash
by: Nathan Dautovich, PropertyGuys.com Franchise Owner
Way To Burst The GTA Housing Bubble, Kathleen Wynne
by: Samantha Brookes Founder and CEO of Mortgages of Canada.
Unbiased journalism? Ouch!
RBC to cut about 450 jobs in the Toronto area
http://www.bnn.ca/rbc-to-cut-about-450-jobs-in-the-toronto-area-1.785018
The long oil trade is unwinding. This will be painful folks. We’re nowhere near the long term bottom.
HSBC just called me. My mortgage payments will be $692/month. :D
#96 SimVan on 06.20.17 at 10:04 pm
Well said. As well, it is not always immigrants who share this same story. I lived it just like you did. I still do and I can’t hack when people whine about how the world owes them either. Anything is possible when there is will (or necessity) to do it.
It’s called hard work and dedication. Focus. For me, it was for survival.
#184 CV5 on 06.21.17 at 12:19 pm
“Increasing immigration to get prosperity is rear view mirror thinking. If more people were the answer, the Philippines would be an economic powerhouse.”
I cannot see how adding sheep to an already denuded field can help anybody. Banks and votes….maybe.
Fact is…the highest birthrate countries are by far the most wretched on the planet, and everybody wants out.
———————————
I love how the pro-population-explosion people raise the spectre of Japan, as if it’s such a terrifying prospect!
Oh my goodness, please let Canada not be like Japan, you know, the country with the highest standard of living on the planet? Far better that Canada be like India or Mexico.
For years he has posted here virtually never agreeing with anyone and constantly lecturing all including Garth. Long-winded posts designed to impress it seems.
An “interesting” approach to life.
That’s for sure! It would be credible if he actually had some money and didn’t have such a hard time convincing an employer to hire him.
#147 BS on 06.21.17 at 2:20 am
All things being equal the TFW wins. Locals need to up their compete if they want to work in a field where a TFW can fill the job.
==
Don’t fool yourself.
With 7+ billion people there is a better, cheaper replacement for every single person in the G10 countries.
Yes, that also includes you.
450 RBC HEAD OFFICE JOBS AXED. Wonder how many TFW will be replacing them.
Let’s see. It would look real bad if they axed woman, trans, lesbo, gay, black, brown, big red rock eater. Who can they broom while having no backlash?
Diversity, Inclusion, people.
3 Billion in quarterly profits.
The housing bubble partly to blame for another retailer in Canada. http://business.financialpost.com/pmn/retail-and-marketing-business-pmn/sears-canada-said-to-be-preparing-to-seek-creditor-protection-as-cash-crunch-deepens/wcm/e7b72632-ed26-4cf1-8aeb-e8a8d988847a
Soooo hypothetical question…do millennials buy a detached now and take advantage of the cusp of a downward price spin, and still lock in at historically low interest rates, before the now sooner-than-forecasted spike…or wait for the market to really tumble in a year or two, but lock in at a higher interest rate? Hmmmm…quelle dilemma.
Hardly. Opt for less debt. — Garth
Btw, nice insider info leak with Poloz :D
picked up by bloomberg…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-20/poloz-and-the-urgency-of-a-july-rate-hike-canada-eco-watch
#201 Smoking Man on 06.21.17 at 2:03 pm
450 RBC HEAD OFFICE JOBS AXED. Wonder how many TFW will be replacing them.
Let’s see. It would look real bad if they axed woman, trans, lesbo, gay, black, brown, big red rock eater. Who can they broom while having no backlash?
Diversity, Inclusion, people.
3 Billion in quarterly profits.
———————————
Our gracious host was part of the government that originally enacted gender and race quotas (employment equity) at federally-regulated companies.
Garth, was Mulroney right to begin that discriminatory trend? I think it was the worst thing he did as PM.
John Pasalis, president of Realosophy, tracks the market weekly. He said his agents are telling consumers to be careful about where they buy.
A balanced real estate market will have four to six months of inventory where prices won’t move much either way. A lot of neighbourhoods have one to three months of supply — still a seller’s market. But in the 905 communities there are neighbourhoods with seven and eight months of inventory.
https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2017/06/21/home-sales-slump-continuing-in-june.html
#190 Cat on 06.21.17 at 12:45 pm
Attn: 604 Greater Fools.
“My husband and I need to add a new circle of people we surround ourselves with. Wanted to put this out there – if a local meet-up of Greater Fools was organized, would you come out, meet other Gartheads and commiserate/relish the demise of the impending fiscal environment we’ll be facing? I’m tired of conversations with moisters who are ra-ra real estate here. thx!”
Lets all meet up at the Success Path seminar in Vancouver. We can learn to flip houses for easy money.
http://successpatheducation.com/register-for-events/event-registration-vancouver/?nab=1
I need some new friends too. Mine are all too busy bragging about their paper profits.
Realtors’ internal numbers show Toronto home prices fell more than 6% in two weeks: Sales also plummeted 50% in early June, wiping out about $2.5 billion in market activity
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/realtors-internal-numbers-show-toronto-home-prices-fell-more-than-6-in-two-weeks/wcm/b2de27d1-8012-4552-a571-da90ce82d319
Pink Lemonade being sipped in Burnaby.
This post is for you Sobby.
These guys went back in for some in March of this year.
The top number states October last year as when they started to try and sell it but it looks as though that is a mistake as bc assessment has a sale recorded for 1.8 in early March this year and it is only assessed at 1.61
Luckily for them there is a highway running through the backyard and they quite possibly could sell some Pink Lemonade to any hitchhikers wandering by…
M43BC
2863 Southcrest Drive, Burnaby.
Oct 15:$1,998,000
Jun 17: $1,950,000
Change: – 48000.00 -2%
https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=2863%20Southcrest%20Drive,%20Burnaby&filter=1
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzWDEwOA==
#205 Howard on 06.21.17 at 2:52 pm
Our gracious host was part of the government that originally enacted gender and race quotas (employment equity) at federally-regulated companies.
Garth, was Mulroney right to begin that discriminatory trend? I think it was the worst thing he did as PM.
Howard – You have a sad perspective on race & gender equality in Canada.
Sometimes the Government needs to push an agenda to break the molds that holds us back as a nation.
We are better as a nation for breaking molds and I hope you take this opportunity to look beyond your own prejudices and seek out education on how things were and how they are getting better.
All this talk about TFW and how citizens are getting shafted blah blah blah. Reminds me of my past co-workers in the oilfields who cried how the government owes them a job after doo doo hit the fan.
No one owes you anything in this world. Retool, educate and get your skill up to be useful.
When looking at Earth from space i see no borders. Its a free for all up in here.
We try to work together but when it gets tough we eat our young. Be careful and be vigilant. Good luck.
TurnerNation on 06.21.17 at 1:00 pm Uppa up in Vaughan. But will they close. 905 Hinterland. From Bisnow magazine “Exclusive: Transit City Sells Out Tower Units In Vaughan In Two Weeks The first two residential towers for Transit City, part of the development changing Vaughan’s core, have sold out, with all 1,100 condo units snapped up in two weeks. “People responded in a record-setting way,” said Shamez Virani, president of CentreCourt, Transit City’s developer. “Of all the launches in all the years of the condo market in Toronto, nothing like this has happened before. The response has been beyond…” – See more at: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/06/20/careful-7/#comments
To bad prices those Gamblers will walk away from their deposits when they realize they bought at the peak of a crashing housing bubble. I wouldn’t live in that area unless it was free. Lot’s of traffic and no where to go unless you take car and suffer in traffic. I avoid that area at all costs. will be interesting to see how that blood bath unfolds.
The hatred for the younger generation demonstrated pretty much consistently in the comments section here is disheartening.
I don’t watch a lot of television news anymore, but I’m assuming some of the yellower journalistic outlets are churning out regular hit pieces against Millennials that folks are just eating up and regurgitating here.
#210 TnT on 06.21.17 at 4:18 pm
#205 Howard on 06.21.17 at 2:52 pm
Our gracious host was part of the government that originally enacted gender and race quotas (employment equity) at federally-regulated companies.
Garth, was Mulroney right to begin that discriminatory trend? I think it was the worst thing he did as PM.
Howard – You have a sad perspective on race & gender equality in Canada.
Sometimes the Government needs to push an agenda to break the molds that holds us back as a nation.
We are better as a nation for breaking molds and I hope you take this opportunity to look beyond your own prejudices and seek out education on how things were and how they are getting better.
——————————
More illiberal progressive claptrap, trampling on individual rights while cheering for group rights which have no place in a merit-based democracy.
Here’s a hint. Gender and race quotas are the exact opposite of equality. Employment equity is a disgrace.
#211 SheCallsMeDaddy on 06.21.17 at 4:18 pm
All this talk about TFW and how citizens are getting shafted blah blah blah.
No one owes you anything in this world.
—
Of course not. That includes the steady supply of TFWs.
Missed opportunity.
Someone managed to buy ETH for $0.10 today on GDAX.
After which it recovered immediately to US$300 again.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14607703
I hope the blog dog ETH millionaire didn’t sell during the flash crash.
#214 Howard on 06.21.17 at 4:46 pm
Don’t wiggle out of your statement.
In the days of Mulroney there was rampant racial and gender discrimination.
We are better as a nation today because of government intervention.
If you can’t see that then don’t waste my time educating you. You are an example of another lazy Canadian lacking a desire for knowledge.
217 TnT
Not sure what you’re talking about re: “wiggling”.
I stated that hiring quotas based on gender and race are a disgrace. You apparently didn’t understand my reference to individual rights vs group rights; it is very much relevant to this discussion.
I do not believe that banks and other federally-regulated companies in the 1980s were hotbeds of bigotry and even if so, there were laws on the books to punish such behaviour. Regardless there is certainly no need for it in 2017. Employment equity provisions should be abolished and the merit principle restored. Fat chance this will happen under prancing PM Selfie, whose Science Minister is now threatening universities with race/gender quotas for research funding.
We may see 3.5 5 year fixed rate if the US continues to raise interest rates.Yes it is hard to comperend but we may see higher rates.I never thought it would happen but I guess the bank and goverment have gotten us so heavily in debt and see that its may burden the economy.The money they make is enough for now.
Re: #206 Simplyput7 on 06.21.17 at 3:00 pm
I don’t know how they can print, Montreal real estate heats up? Far as I know only the French speak French and the entire French Canadian race is dying out fast. That means falling real estate prices in Montreal.
ozy: #47 Screwed Canadian Millenial – you are screwing yourselves :) :)
just look in the mirror, stop blaming the boomers, think we had it easier??? (GEN-X)
learn to stop whining with every opportunity given, we are sick already. Instead, start doing. In silence.
Abandon school. Get 3 jobs, or 4. stop talking. start being helpful to others and volunteer to launch a new political party or more, while you keep your mouth shut. see what happens. do a business, see what people want and no one offers. I have plenty of ideas. door knock and offer your services. work hard, built good testimonials. delete your fakebook account and open the door to life
ozy: close all bank accounts but one
LIQUIDATE SAVINGS, PAY DEBT. close all bank accounts but one. LET THE BANKS STARVE A BIT
pay mortgage in full, liquidate home insurance. one car only. bunker down, cut all spending. don’t buy unnecessary medicine or other useless products. pay cash only so you keep track of it.
buy good water and good food. plant a tree or 10. grill your burgers…. invite friends over for beer, discover life without BIG-CORPA
they just proved don’t deserve any employees or customers.
brother, they want to suck you in
they know is coming down, want you destroyed as well
call it envy
when is the crash coming? still nothing quality to buy in rosedale for 2 mil :) :) :)