Perspective

DOUG By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

As the father of a young daughter who will soon be attending her first Taylor Swift, Katy Perry or Ariana Grande concert, I was disgusted and outraged by the terrorist attack in Manchester two weeks ago. The callous disregard for innocent life was horrifying and my sense of helplessness in the face of such a random act of violence was frustrating beyond words.

However, I’m also a portfolio manager and I have to view such events dispassionately and objectively with respect to my clients’ portfolios. Such dramatic acts naturally draw intense media attention, which, in turn, generates fear and, occasionally, client concern regarding a potential impact on their investments. This occurred after the Boston Marathon bombings in April 2013 and, more notably, after the Paris attacks in November 2015 that killed more than 130 people. An uneasy feeling often develops that the world is destabilizing and that such terrorist attacks are just the tip of the iceberg. There’s a behavioural finance term for this, of course: Availability bias. Availability bias, according to investment firm Vanguard:

…suggests that recently observed or experienced events strongly influence decisions. Researchers found that individuals were likely to overestimate the chances of being in a car crash if they had seen a car crash on a recent journey. The recent memory made the prospect more vivid—available—and therefore more likely.

Availability bias is one reason why commuters don’t fly to certain countries immediately after a terrorist attack or, more comically, why Britney Spears a number of years ago refused to come to Toronto after learning about SARS (the Rolling Stones, unsurprisingly, had no such fear)—it’s not because these are statistically prudent decisions rather they’re simply natural, albeit fallacious, reactions to recent (or ‘available’) information. Of course, the Boston Marathon bombings didn’t lead to a surge in US domestic terrorism and nothing near the magnitude of the Paris attacks has occurred since in France—though Marine Le Pen certainly tried to stoke fears that it would.

As a portfolio manager, I have to keep perspective. Terrorism actually results in only a relatively small number of deaths each year. In 2015, for example, according to the Institute for Economics and Peace, about 30,000 deaths globally were the result of terrorism, which viewed clinically, amounts to about 0.0004% of the world’s population. And 2015 was a bad year.

Typically, the number of deaths is closer to about 15,000. Further, Western nations—even America—are little impacted by terrorism. There were only 58 US fatalities as a result of terrorism in 2015. This is about equal to the average number of deaths each year from lightning strikes and pales in comparison to the number of US deaths each year from heart disease—the #1 killer in America.

Keep Terrorism in Perspective

Source: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, Center for Disease Control, National Weather Service

The market is a pretty shrewd judge of events. Almost 80% of terrorist activity occurs in only five countries—Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria and Syria—which doesn’t make these incidents any less tragic, but these are areas far removed from major economic centres. The market knows this and understands that such terrorist activity is unlikely to have lasting impact on corporate profits, which, to be blunt, is what the market cares about most.

Now there’s always the possibility of a 9/11 or, God forbid, nuclear terrorism, but such events are unlikely. And how would you prepare your portfolio anyways? No one has any idea if and when such events might occur. If you’d poured your money into US Treasuries after 9/11 because you were convinced that the sky was falling you’d be up about 100% by now, but US equity returns (the S&P 500) have more than doubled those of bonds over the same period (+203%, including dividends). The truth is terrorism hardly ever affects the markets, at least not for long. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% in the week following the Boston bombings and European markets were up 2.8% a week after the Paris attacks.

I won’t ever forget the Manchester terrorist bombing—this particular tragedy will have lasting emotional impact—but I also recognize that the market marches on.

There’s no place in capital markets for chicken littles.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

109 comments ↓

#1 Leo Trollstoy on 06.03.17 at 3:59 pm

Why wouldn’t India be for the Paris climate accord? India has agreed to continue increasing their emissions while also having their green energy initiatives financed by other countries.

This is literally India’s pledge:

1) Grow economy by 6-7% per year increasing emissions and coal usage.

2) Pay no money to climate fund

3) Use money gifted by other countries to implement some green energy sources.

Wow, what a tough choice for India.

TL;DR: India and other “developing” countries get money for agreeing to Paris Climate Accord. Easy decision.

Trump: That’s a bad deal for America

Mainstream media: Trump is anti-science and against saving the environment!!

/facepalm

#2 InvestorsFriend on 06.03.17 at 4:11 pm

Don’t Let the Terrorists Win

Last year there were some terrorist attacks in Europe just before I was due to make a trip there. Not the same cities but close enough. Then while we were in North East France there was an attack in the south of France. I was glad that I never felt afraid. Instead I felt it would be wrong to let terrorists dictate my travels. Actually France (the part I was in) felt very normal the day after the that attack in the south.

But if it were my kids planning to go to a concert I might have a different feeling. It’s hard to say until you are in the situation.

After a while we get used to these things and go on with life.

Logically there is very little chance of an attack. Still, I understand why some would keep certainly their kids away from juicy targets like concerts.

#3 Who knows on 06.03.17 at 4:18 pm

Personally, I’m disgusted by any loss of life due to terrorism. Regardless of whether it’s little girl or an old man. A life is a life.

#4 Derek R on 06.03.17 at 4:21 pm

Quite, right, Doug. The recent bombing was despicable. But it isn’t going to change much.

#5 I'm not Poloz on 06.03.17 at 4:21 pm

Poloz wants a US$0.35 loonie that we have to keep an eye on him before he talks down the Loonie at the next Bank of Canada meeting. Poloz is desperate to boost exports while Morneau wants every Canadian to work for free.

#6 Entrepreneur on 06.03.17 at 4:32 pm

Availability bias, the shudder thought, omg, but one learns over the years to overcome or calm those thoughts. “Get back onto that horse” saying comes to mind.

Wonder if the fossil fuel oil/gas pipelines then pass the carbon tax/Paris accord on the same thinking as availability bias. Make it look good but really covering up the earth-sucking fossil fuel projects that harm basically anything in its path. What is that call? Is there a special term for that?

#7 Nonbuyer on 06.03.17 at 4:34 pm

I’m reading this as a warning against leverage, as that would make a black swan worse than it would otherwise be.

Low growth and high leverage, high equities and low savings scares me too. Too much wealth in too few hands and no one cares about moral hazard. Hedging isn’t even very viable. But I’m just a young amateur, what do I know…

#8 A box in the sky on 06.03.17 at 4:36 pm

Great post. The market really is amazing at cutting through the noise of a given day.

Trying to be a macro trader based on daily events is such a negative sum game

#9 When will it end? on 06.03.17 at 4:38 pm

Went to several open houses today in the Niagara area. Same old spiel. Still getting numerous offers in well above asking price without any conditions including home inspections. No sign around here of the bidding wars ending yet. Oh well, maybe next year.

#10 Smoking Man on 06.03.17 at 4:49 pm

Doug, You had to show the heart disease column chart. My wife occasionality stumbles on to this pathetic blog if she saw that I would be lectured and bitched at for hours. So I’m front running this situation and heading to Niagara Falls NY tonight. For more insane live streaming videos. @smokingman

Garth, I was too busy yesterday to post on, “Sharing” Tell you how my day went. Started off with a Video interview for a VBA gig, drove out to Markham, sat in front of a large scream tv, when the hiring manager saw my face he instantly rolled his eyes, body language said, not another one, not only does Kathy Griffin have it in for Old White guys, seems the world has got it in for us too. Soros, I’m thinking.

No way I was providing my amazing skills to a loser like that. I walked out without saying a word after 2 minutes and answering zero questions.

So I have been trying to do these screen videos for my website, they are all shit, going to hire a pro. I have a huge budget for Google AddWords that I will unleash on the world soon, Once that Videos are done right.

But I will tell you this, this pathetic blog has lots of Entrepreneurs.
Download stats for www,bestinvoice.biz software.
Greater Fool 94
Linkin 2
Twitter 4
Facebook 1
Google 1

My whole concept of sharing and giving away an amazing invoicing system for free, It demon straights some of my skills, and It helps People I love, Entrepreneurs. I’m positive some small to medium companies will engage me for some work once I go nuts with Google AdWords.

I know I’m done like soggy chocolate dip donuts downtown. It’s my cultural resistance to the insanity downtown and openly sharing it.

But see dogs, unlike Kathy Griffin, this is how real entrepreneurs rock, they don’t blame others for their stupid mistakes, take full on responsibility and move forward with something new.

But at least now, going forward, I won’t be self-censoring and worried about what DM and Bay Street cultural police will do to me. I’m free…

#11 Kilo on 06.03.17 at 4:52 pm

First. What did the markets do? After Manchester?

#12 Jimmy on 06.03.17 at 4:58 pm

I found this a few threads ago. It is really a good read, for it fixes many problems in the economy and provides a solution for Basic Income.

http://atom.singularity2050.com/

#13 Dave on 06.03.17 at 5:07 pm

If you are extrememy confident that Home Capital is going bust, should we short the stock?

#14 Guns or Butter on 06.03.17 at 5:08 pm

Query: If heart disease is vastly more of an issue than terrorism (or lightening strikes), why is Trump’s budget proposal requesting an increase in military spending, but cuts to health care?

Hint: “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military–industrial complex.” – Dwight D. Eisenhower.

#15 Leverage on 06.03.17 at 5:09 pm

Correct, Doug, but… I think I just witnessed how to open Pandora’s box. I bet 30% of today’s comments will be deleted.

#16 conan on 06.03.17 at 5:20 pm

I remember post 911 to be a Captain Obvious buy American equities moment. A don’t bet against America, and patriotism call, all rolled into one.

I met some people visiting Canada and their next destination was NYC. Their Hotels were booked for the 15th, or 915, right down town. They received a lot of free stuff/comps, and were treated like long lost friends. One of the more memorable vacations for them, in the end.

Some timing involved with the post 911 markets as they did crater before settling. I know you guys hate timing, but I don’t.

#17 SWL1976 on 06.03.17 at 5:23 pm

A little late to the conversation here yesterday, but I cannot understand how anyone can have a meaningful discussion on climate change without addressing the huge elephant in the room with regards to geoengineering and global dimming.

Any argument on the subject is moot without frist acknowledging and then having even a basic understanding of these two subjects

#18 For those about to flop... on 06.03.17 at 5:32 pm

Pink Pollen falling West Vancouver.

I will do these three cases together to try and stay out of Robax’s way.

This one is trying to rope-a-dope as at this price they would take a double digit loss if it goes anywhere near their ask.

Paid 1.9 in Jan 2016 ,healthy assessment comes in at 2.38…

275 Rabbit Lane West Vancouver

Feb 23:$2,488,000
Jun 2: $1,680,000
Change: – 808000.00 -32%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=275%20Rabbit%20Lane,%20West%20Vancouver&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyOUFMNg==

Next one was picked up for 2.55 in April 2016 and is assessed roughly the same so they will be hoping to break even after expenses….

1036 Kings Avenue, West Vancouver

Oct 26:$2,888,000
Jun 2: $2,698,000
Change: – 190000.00 -7%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=1036%20Kings%20Avenue,%20West%20Vancouver&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyOTlXOQ==

And finally,these guys are on the hook for 3.14 but the assessment topped out at 2.86 that came later in the year after they bought this place in March 2016.

With the low assessment and the higher price point these guys could face the biggest struggle of the three.

We’ll see…
M42BC

4948 Pinetree Crescent, West Vancouver

Apr 30:$3,598,000
Jun 2: $3,398,000
Change: – 200000.00

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=4948%20Pinetree%20Crescent,%20West%20Vancouver&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyOTJHUA==

#19 just a dude on 06.03.17 at 5:39 pm

Doug, totally agree. Perspective is an incredibly powerful & useful concept.

Screw the terrorist bastards. We should be more concerned with the negative impact of bacon on the arteries. Then again, forget about being too concerned with that too. Personally, I’d rather keep enjoying an occasional awesome steak & pint of Guinness and eventually (hopefully) flame out quickly rather than find myself in a pool of my own drool and no longer recognizing my loved ones. Like one of my parents did. Seven years of suffering with Alzheimer’s. Brutal. Sad.
Cheers

#20 Unhinged Trader on 06.03.17 at 5:48 pm

>random act of violence

It was anything but random.

And it is your class of lifestyle progressives, obsessed with their own multicultural vanity, that enable these sorts of crimes.

#21 ALFRED E. NEUMAN on 06.03.17 at 5:55 pm

Good post Doug.

Sadly, by our (and the media) calling them “terrorists” (and also by providing their names), we fuel their intent and make them feel all the more victorious.

Consider that it doesn’t take a lot of bravery to kill innocent people and that, if you brought a knife to a fist-fight or a gun to a knife-fight, you’d be seen as acting cowardly and rightly be called a “coward”.

Along that line, I’d like to see them known as “cowardists”, as that is what these acts and who the persons who commit them, really are.

Call it for what it is. And lessen the glory.

#22 A Reply to #10 Smoking Man on 06.03.17 at 6:01 pm

“It demon straights [demonstrates] some of my skills….”

Was your spelling of the word “demonstrates” intentional? And, if so, to what purpose?

I didn’t detect any spelling errors in your entire post (except for some minor capitalization typos). What gives?

#23 Doug Rowat on 06.03.17 at 6:13 pm

#19 just a dude on 06.03.17 at 5:39 pm

Doug, totally agree. Perspective is an incredibly powerful & useful concept.

Screw the terrorist bastards. We should be more concerned with the negative impact of bacon on the arteries.

Unfortunately, it’s just so tasty.

–Doug

#24 Doug Rowat on 06.03.17 at 6:20 pm

#8 A box in the sky on 06.03.17 at 4:36 pm

Great post. The market really is amazing at cutting through the noise of a given day.

The S&P 500 and corporate profitability have a positive correlation in the high 90s. The market has a keen sense of what will and won’t actually interrupt earnings. Terrorists generate fear, they don’t alter fundamentals.

–Doug

#25 Contrarian Coyote on 06.03.17 at 6:28 pm

#18 For those about to flop… on 06.03.17 at 5:32 pm
Pink Pollen falling West Vancouver.

I will do these three cases together to try and stay out of Robax’s way.

This one is trying to rope-a-dope as at this price they would take a double digit loss if it goes anywhere near their ask.

Paid 1.9 in Jan 2016 ,healthy assessment comes in at 2.38…

275 Rabbit Lane West Vancouver

Feb 23:$2,488,000
Jun 2: $1,680,000
Change: – 808000.00 -32%

====

Damn! That’s gotta hurt. Can’t imagine what they’ll be in for if they have to renew their mortgage in the future.

#26 Captain Koch. on 06.03.17 at 6:34 pm

#17 SWL1976 on 06.03.17 at 5:23 pm
A little late to the conversation here yesterday, but I cannot understand how anyone can have a meaningful discussion on climate change without addressing the huge elephant in the room with regards to geoengineering and global dimming.

Any argument on the subject is moot without frist acknowledging and then having even a basic understanding of these two subjects

CHEMTRAILS!!!

#27 espressobob on 06.03.17 at 6:35 pm

We had a bad accident on the lakeshore a week ago. A five year old cyclist veered into tragedy. Manchester attack, Boston bombings etc. All very tragic. Innocent individuals paying a price for something they didn’t deserve.

That’s the reality of the world we live in. It sucks!

Sitting back watching ones portfolio grow or working on that golf swing move that never seems to pan out is a life of luxury. Many take it for granted and have the balls to actually complain and bitch about how hard they have it. Really?

Be humble.

Good post Doug.

#28 Smoking Man on 06.03.17 at 6:40 pm

#22 A Reply to #10 Smoking Man on 06.03.17 at 6:01 pm
“It demon straights [demonstrates] some of my skills….”

Was your spelling of the word “demonstrates” intentional? And, if so, to what purpose?

I didn’t detect any spelling errors in your entire post (except for some minor capitalization typos). What gives?
……

Ask my thumbs and the retarded auto correct on my phone. I trained it 6 years ago before I learned to write. Past always comes back to bite you.

#29 Ride the gravity waves. on 06.03.17 at 6:40 pm

#10 Smoking Man on 06.03.17 at 4:49 pm
Doug, You had to show the heart disease column chart. My wife occasionality stumbles on to this pathetic blog if she saw that I would be lectured and bitched at for hours. So I’m front running this situation and heading to Niagara Falls NY tonight. For more insane live streaming videos. @smokingman

Garth, I was too busy yesterday to post on, “Sharing” Tell you how my day went. Started off with a Video interview for a VBA gig, drove out to Markham, sat in front of a large scream tv, when the hiring manager saw my face he instantly rolled his eyes, body language said, not another one, not only does Kathy Griffin have it in for Old White guys, seems the world has got it in for us too. Soros, I’m thinking.

No way I was providing my amazing skills to a loser like that. I walked out without saying a word after 2 minutes and answering zero questions.

So I have been trying to do these screen videos for my website, they are all shit, going to hire a pro. I have a huge budget for Google AddWords that I will unleash on the world soon, Once that Videos are done right.

But I will tell you this, this pathetic blog has lots of Entrepreneurs.
Download stats for www,bestinvoice.biz software.
Greater Fool 94
Linkin 2
Twitter 4
Facebook 1
Google 1

My whole concept of sharing and giving away an amazing invoicing system for free, It demon straights some of my skills, and It helps People I love, Entrepreneurs. I’m positive some small to medium companies will engage me for some work once I go nuts with Google AdWords.

I know I’m done like soggy chocolate dip donuts downtown. It’s my cultural resistance to the insanity downtown and openly sharing it.

But see dogs, unlike Kathy Griffin, this is how real entrepreneurs rock, they don’t blame others for their stupid mistakes, take full on responsibility and move forward with something new.

But at least now, going forward, I won’t be self-censoring and worried about what DM and Bay Street cultural police will do to me. I’m free…

Meh. Tons of free invoicing software everywhere.

I thought you moved to Antigua dude?

#30 Leverage on 06.03.17 at 6:52 pm

Discussion thread about walking before closing in Toronto https://www.reddit.com/r/canada/comments/6d243p/bidding_wars_turn_to_homebuyers_remorse_in_toronto/

#31 Pete on 06.03.17 at 6:59 pm

Following Doug’s logic, I collected the following data for the year of 1940:

1940: US death from threat of Japanese militarism – 10
1940: US death from car accidents – 82,500

conclusion: Japanese militarism is no threat to the US. the US should spend all its money on hiring more traffic cops.

then next year there is Pearl Harbour.

#32 Pete on 06.03.17 at 7:02 pm

“Terrorists generate fear, they don’t alter fundamentals.” -Doug

So were the Japanese and Nazis in the year of 1940. Until Pearl Harbour and Dunkirk.

#33 Lead Paint on 06.03.17 at 7:18 pm

#1 Leo Troll on 06.03.17 at 3:59 pm

Enough re-posting the same drivel. If you don’t think India is sacrificing to fight global warming, read this. They are sacrificing far more than western nations, forcing their citizens to pay for more expensive air conditioning in one of the hottest countries in the world. Now many will not be able to afford air conditioning at all.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/world/asia/india-air-conditioning.html?_r=0&referer=https://www.google.ca/

You and Chico try to find one tiny reason to support an incorrect (and convenient) view of a complex topic and spout nonesense to sway gullible people to support Trump and Putin.

#34 Harper is God on 06.03.17 at 7:21 pm

@ conan (16)

“I know you guys hate timing but I don’t”

You should book a London holiday right now. Maybe you can help clean up the bodies.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4569638/Car-ploughs-20-people-London-Bridge.html

#35 Poor timing on 06.03.17 at 7:33 pm

Another attack in London today. I assume we are to lump it in with bad toasters and Ford Pintos. As a former Londoner, I do find it hard when I see Canadians continuously making light of such acts in the media and in general. A little less blasé please.

#36 Chico on 06.03.17 at 7:34 pm

#17 SWL1976 on 06.03.17 at 5:23 pm

A little late to the conversation here yesterday, but I cannot understand how anyone can have a meaningful discussion on climate change without addressing the huge elephant in the room with regards to geoengineering and global dimming.

Any argument on the subject is moot without frist acknowledging and then having even a basic understanding of these two subjects

*

You said “meaningful discussion.” That doesn’t fit well with many people’s model of information gathering and learning. Is learning and doing what’s right the objective or is being right, regardless of the reprecussions? If we as citizens are being told by governing scientific organizations to shut up and get in line, then what sort of “meaningful discussions” would we expect to have?

#37 TurnerNation on 06.03.17 at 7:38 pm

I read 80% of overseas “news” to be fictional creation of the military industry complex.
I find this engenders sanity and clarity (a focus on what I must do next for me).
Survival of the fittest and all.
War pays – them.

Live to trade, trade to live.

….

Tomorrow is Italian Day annual fest at Casa Loma (tix sold out)
Premier Wymn last year was a speaker guest there.
Wonder if those that buya da house will cheer or glare this time around.

#38 Chico on 06.03.17 at 7:43 pm

#14 Guns or Butter on 06.03.17 at 5:08 pm

Query: If heart disease is vastly more of an issue than terrorism (or lightening strikes), why is Trump’s budget proposal requesting an increase in military spending, but cuts to health care?

Hint: “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military–industrial complex.” – Dwight D. Eisenhower.

*

It would be pretty difficult if not impossible to argue that war isn’t big business, especially in the states. Bashing Trump is easy, but what about our medical establishment that gives our doctors no more than a few weeks training in nutrition? Heart disease is a relatively new problem that is caused primarily by lifestyle choices. Whether we like it or not, most of our health care system is reactive not proactive, sick care versus health care. More money into health care is only a small part of the solution when the current system needs major reform.

#39 cecilhenry on 06.03.17 at 7:47 pm

An unfortunately timely article:

At least Three Terror attacks in London Bridge area….

Powell’s River of Blood prediction comes true.

Time to Understand the Agenda!!!
Grace & Steel Ep. 82 – Rivers of Blood
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlodgGFWAiY

#40 Bobby13 on 06.03.17 at 7:50 pm

Bond bubble I can feel the surface tension mounting on this one. How about the flattening yield curve? Or inverse yield curve.? Looks like a great time to keep pouring you’re dollars in.

#41 Doug Rowat on 06.03.17 at 7:53 pm

#32 Pete on 06.03.17 at 7:02 pm

“Terrorists generate fear, they don’t alter fundamentals.” -Doug

So were the Japanese and Nazis in the year of 1940. Until Pearl Harbour and Dunkirk.

Well buy war bonds then. And fight them on the beaches. The rest of us will invest in 2017.

–Doug

#42 SWL1976 on 06.03.17 at 7:54 pm

#26 Captain Koch.

#17 SWL1976

A little late to the conversation here yesterday, but I cannot understand how anyone can have a meaningful discussion on climate change without addressing the huge elephant in the room with regards to geoengineering and global dimming.

Any argument on the subject is moot without frist acknowledging and then having even a basic understanding of these two subjects

CHEMTRAILS!!!!

———–

Exactly. If you cannot see or understand this new reality, you are simply not looking…

Or being willfully ignorant…

Which seems to suit most people just fine these days

#43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.03.17 at 8:04 pm

@#13 Dave

“If you are extrememy confident that Home Capital is going bust, should we short the stock?”
*******

Nah, but I’m “extrememy” confident that you dont have spellcheck…….

#44 Nonplused on 06.03.17 at 8:05 pm

Terrorism is terrible and I am glad police and other agencies are doing everything they can to prevent it. But it is more likely you’ll get shot by your lover’s husband in the US and Canada. So some risks you just have to take.

I’m more worried about the prospect of nuclear war. Why? Because I have spent many years in risk management. When managing risks, even when buying insurance against those risks, there are 3 main questions that have to be multiplied out:

What is the probability?
What will be the worst case (usually defined as 95th percentile) outcome?
Can the organization survive that outcome?

So let’s say we hire Doug at our hedge fund to speculate on oil futures. The first thing we are going to do is run some statistics on the oil market and figure out the volatility. This give us the ability to estimate the maximum loss per barrel we could incur in the unlikely event Doug goes long when he should have been short or vice versa. If we only have say $1,000,000 we are willing to lose we can now do a simple division and give Doug his volumetric limit. As the price goes up and down we can recalculate that limit. And most trading firms are doing that every single day.

It gets even more complicated if there are multiple commodities involved and cross-correlations need to be factored in but let’s leave it at that for now.

So, comparing terrorism to nuclear war goes like this:

Terrorist event:
Probability: High
Probability it affects you: very low
Cost to Society: Manageable

So the math is High probability times Manageable outcome. It’s still a personal tragedy for those who couldn’t get out of the towers but New York is still there.

Now let’s look at all out Nuclear war:

Probability: Uncertain, presumed low
Cost to society: Infinite, no one survives

So low probability times infinite costs in the nuclear case yields a much greater factored risk than terrorism at high probability times manageable costs. I know it’s a little callous to talk about the tragic deaths in either case as a cost but that is how you have to look at it. It’s the infinity sign that completely changes the math.

The powers that be understand this, which is why there is so much hoopla about the North Korean and alleged Iranian nuke programs. But the main fear producing countries remain the US, Russia, China, Britain, France, and to a lessor extent Pakistan, India and Israel. That’s 8 countries who could start something uncontrollable if they went rogue, so the odds are not zero. Something not zero times infinity is infinity, no matter how small not zero is.

But what are markets going to do? Well, they just ignore this risk because it’s outside the 2 standard deviations (95th percentile) they use to assess risk. Just keep dancing until the music stops. We have to in this case.

Doug referenced “Availability bias”, which is a true human thing. A patient who has survived cancer is unlikely to smoke. But it’s been a long time since a nuclear bomb has exploded over a civilian population and those were pretty small bombs by today’s standards and only one side had them. If Japan had the ability in WWII to drop a nuke on Los Angles and Seattle the conversation would have been entirely different.

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.03.17 at 8:07 pm

@#17 SWL1976
“……. but I cannot understand how anyone can have a meaningful discussion on climate change without addressing the huge elephant in the room with regards to geoengineering and global dimming…..”
*******

For the love of God, please dont talk about “jet trails” and clandestine govt spraying programs again……

#46 For those about to flop... on 06.03.17 at 8:08 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Vancouver.

These guys forked out 1.5 in Feb 2016 ,assessment is a little higher and now it is priced to get some action and the most likely scenario is to roughly break even after expenses.

But really they should have got 2.1 because everybody’s saying that Vancouver’s on fire…

M42BC

2988 52ND AVE E Vancouver

Jan 26:$2,100,000
Jun 2: $1,588,000
Change: – 512000.00 -24%

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?sarea=2988%20E%2052nd%20Avenue,%20Vancouver&filter=1

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwM0NSWQ==

#47 TurnerNation on 06.03.17 at 8:09 pm

Funny how they have zero demands right?
Is it little girls going to school? Our Freedumbs?
They’ve run out of script.
Fact: humans fight only over land and reproduction.
No demands = straw man.
Our mind is the target.

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.03.17 at 8:09 pm

@#22 A reply
“It demon straights [demonstrates] some of my skills….”
******
Smokey is referring to his skill to switch from Rye to the “demon rum”

#49 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.03.17 at 8:14 pm

aaaaaaand we wont even talk about the statistical probabilities of being killed by Great White Sharks whilst swimming in Australia….
23 last year.
Versus deaths by bee sting in Australia….
24 last year.

Which raises the question about all media, world wide today…….
Which story sells more newspapers?

#50 Doug Rowat on 06.03.17 at 8:21 pm

#39 cecilhenry on 06.03.17 at 7:47 pm

An unfortunately timely article:

To those considering altering their portfolios in reaction to events in London, a perfectly timed article.

–Doug

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.03.17 at 8:24 pm

@#40 Bobby13
“Bond bubble I can feel the surface tension mounting on this one. How about the flattening yield curve? Or inverse yield curve.? Looks like a great time to keep pouring you’re dollars in….”
*********

Egad man!
The rampaging innuendo in that comment is ready to burst the bond bubble.
Invest in oil lubricants to reduce mounting surface tension. Ignore the flattening yield curve, just keep pouring the investment dollars in until that curve rises……….

#52 Smoking Man on 06.03.17 at 8:34 pm

#29 Ride the gravity waves. on 06.03.17 at 6:40 pm
#10 Smoking Man on 06.03.17 at 4:49 pm
Doug, You had to show the heart disease column chart. My wife occasionality stumbles on to this pathetic blog if she saw that I would be lectured and bitched at for hours. So I’m front running this situation and heading to Niagara Falls NY tonight. For more insane live streaming videos. @smokingman

Garth, I was too busy yesterday to post on, “Sharing” Tell you how my day went. Started off with a Video interview for a VBA gig, drove out to Markham, sat in front of a large scream tv, when the hiring manager saw my face he instantly rolled his eyes, body language said, not another one, not only does Kathy Griffin have it in for Old White guys, seems the world has got it in for us too. Soros, I’m thinking.

No way I was providing my amazing skills to a loser like that. I walked out without saying a word after 2 minutes and answering zero questions.

So I have been trying to do these screen videos for my website, they are all shit, going to hire a pro. I have a huge budget for Google AddWords that I will unleash on the world soon, Once that Videos are done right.

But I will tell you this, this pathetic blog has lots of Entrepreneurs.
Download stats for www,bestinvoice.biz software.
Greater Fool 94
Linkin 2
Twitter 4
Facebook 1
Google 1

My whole concept of sharing and giving away an amazing invoicing system for free, It demon straights some of my skills, and It helps People I love, Entrepreneurs. I’m positive some small to medium companies will engage me for some work once I go nuts with Google AdWords.

I know I’m done like soggy chocolate dip donuts downtown. It’s my cultural resistance to the insanity downtown and openly sharing it.

But see dogs, unlike Kathy Griffin, this is how real entrepreneurs rock, they don’t blame others for their stupid mistakes, take full on responsibility and move forward with something new.

But at least now, going forward, I won’t be self-censoring and worried about what DM and Bay Street cultural police will do to me. I’m free…

Meh. Tons of free invoicing software everywhere.

I thought you moved to Antigua dude?
…….

Mines the Best. And speaking of Antigua. Just got my first donation on my donation page. Quite generous actually. Just in time, was down to 50 bucks in the bank. No job for six months.

Maybe Demon Straight was sub counsous for you little devel you.

Do you all see why I’m a gifted fiction writer. You know I tell the truth and lie a bit. But your not sure what part of the story is true or false.

#53 dogman01 on 06.03.17 at 9:00 pm

Brave Doug, a brave posting. Honest and real.

I don’t think many would take that on.

#54 paul on 06.03.17 at 9:06 pm

More random attacks. In England coning to a street near you

http://ca.reuters.com/article/idCAKBN18U0VV-OCATP?utm_source=34553&utm_medium=partner

#55 Pete from St. Cesaire on 06.03.17 at 9:10 pm

Have you read any of Ariana Grande’s lyrics? I wouldn’t be sending my daughter there. Look up the lyrics to her song “Side to Side”, use a slang dictionary if need be.

#56 Todd on 06.03.17 at 9:16 pm

A human’s chance that their life will end: 100%. Life is too short to live in fear.

#57 Howard on 06.03.17 at 9:21 pm

Another terrorist attack in London.

Maybe we can send PM Selfie there to give the attackers a hug.

#58 bigtowne on 06.03.17 at 9:23 pm

During the 911 attacks as usual I was watching the oil market and CNBC in the early morning between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m. It was a stretch for me to accept the reality so I phoned my ex to confirm what I was watching was real and not my halucination or immagination.

Then the oil markets were closed for several days and my trade went my way but in the end even now I am not the same person and still have PTSD.

We are sixteen years out but it is like it happend last week.

#59 Smoking Man on 06.03.17 at 9:26 pm

With every new terrorist attack, every new tax, and the elite crying about the Paris pull out. You just know those idiots wagered huge that MSM would win the minds of the widget makers in the land of social media.

Widget makers vote with their wallets.

Libralism will go extinct.

Deplorables will rule the earth.
Jay Smokeweeden for the Nobel Prize.

#60 to_be_frank on 06.03.17 at 9:47 pm

You are absolutely right, Doug. It is time to put these terrorist attacks into proper perspective and relegate them all to the back page. Same with the attacks on London this evening. Your chance of being a victim is down there with the chance of being hit by lightning as your chart neatly points out. Why worry? All they do is provide fodder for racists and xenophobes.

#61 Joe2.0 on 06.03.17 at 9:53 pm

Vancouver housing prices on the rise again
3.1% over the past year.
Must be the raises we are all getting plus adjustments for inflation.
Can’t be the RE furled tour busses of wealthy foreigners touring about the province.
Seeing them touting the Sundhine Coast regularly.
That would be ridiculous.

#62 Joe2.0 on 06.03.17 at 9:54 pm

Happy Hour on the Coast.
Excuse the typos.

#63 Alien Butt Surfers on 06.03.17 at 9:55 pm

#52 Smoking Man on 06.03.17 at 8:34 pm

#29 Ride the gravity waves. on 06.03.17 at 6:40 pm
#10 Smoking Man on 06.03.17 at 4:49 pm
Doug, You had to show the heart disease column chart. My wife occasionality stumbles on to this pathetic blog if she saw that I would be lectured and bitched at for hours. So I’m front running this situation and heading to Niagara Falls NY tonight. For more insane live streaming videos. @smokingman

Garth, I was too busy yesterday to post on, “Sharing” Tell you how my day went. Started off with a Video interview for a VBA gig, drove out to Markham, sat in front of a large scream tv, when the hiring manager saw my face he instantly rolled his eyes, body language said, not another one, not only does Kathy Griffin have it in for Old White guys, seems the world has got it in for us too. Soros, I’m thinking.

No way I was providing my amazing skills to a loser like that. I walked out without saying a word after 2 minutes and answering zero questions.

So I have been trying to do these screen videos for my website, they are all shit, going to hire a pro. I have a huge budget for Google AddWords that I will unleash on the world soon, Once that Videos are done right.

But I will tell you this, this pathetic blog has lots of Entrepreneurs.
Download stats for www,bestinvoice.biz software.
Greater Fool 94
Linkin 2
Twitter 4
Facebook 1
Google 1

My whole concept of sharing and giving away an amazing invoicing system for free, It demon straights some of my skills, and It helps People I love, Entrepreneurs. I’m positive some small to medium companies will engage me for some work once I go nuts with Google AdWords.

I know I’m done like soggy chocolate dip donuts downtown. It’s my cultural resistance to the insanity downtown and openly sharing it.

But see dogs, unlike Kathy Griffin, this is how real entrepreneurs rock, they don’t blame others for their stupid mistakes, take full on responsibility and move forward with something new.

But at least now, going forward, I won’t be self-censoring and worried about what DM and Bay Street cultural police will do to me. I’m free…

Meh. Tons of free invoicing software everywhere.

I thought you moved to Antigua dude?
…….

Mines the Best. And speaking of Antigua. Just got my first donation on my donation page. Quite generous actually. Just in time, was down to 50 bucks in the bank. No job for six months.

Maybe Demon Straight was sub counsous for you little devel you.

Do you all see why I’m a gifted fiction writer. You know I tell the truth and lie a bit. But your not sure what part of the story is true or false.

..
LMAO.. yer not still flogging that autobiographical sophomoric drivel about a talking dickhead

#64 Joe2.0 on 06.03.17 at 10:10 pm

Think you got your terrorism stats a tad wrong.
90,000 Christains are martyred a year…if they count.
What’s your definition of terrorism?
Check out what’s going on in London right now.

#65 Smoking Man on 06.03.17 at 10:26 pm

LMAO.. yer not still flogging that autobiographical sophomoric drivel about a talking dickhead
…..

We all pick advisors. Some are real bad. Some are good.

In the end we are all star dust. Enjoy your tiny short time in this missarable pit stop.

#66 A Reply #17 SWL1976 on 06.03.17 at 10:27 pm

#17 SWL1976 on 06.03.17 at 5:23 pm
#26 Captain Koch. on 06.03.17 at 6:34 pm
#36 Chico on 06.03.17 at 7:34 pm
#42 SWL1976 on 06.03.17 at 7:54 pm
#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.03.17 at 8:07 pm

“… how [can anyone] have a meaningful discussion on climate change without addressing … geoengineering and global dimming[?]”

It seems to me that you are now introducing the following choice: (A) Stop polluting, or (B) Continue polluting, but remove and sequester the pollution, and/or modify exchanges of energy between the sun, the earth’s surface and atmosphere, and outer space, to accommodate the increasing pollution. Is this correct?

I think Choice (A) is easier to implement, but Choice (B) adds more to GDP, and may lead to complictions and possibly intractable feedback loops. Have I oversimplified the discussion?

#67 Cloudy on 06.03.17 at 10:53 pm

Good post Doug. Although I agree with the point #31 Pete was making (but I think he was demonstrating there is a larger danger and force involved with terrorism than lightning, not that it should alter investing behavior).

Things happen to good and bad people alike. You can minimize exposure to dangers but can’t eliminate it. I used to do one of the most dangerous jobs (usually statistically the most dangerous job) in the country. In the 3.5 years since I switched careers 3 people I worked with have met their maker. More still that I knew, or knew of. Small community. Purely by coincidence I just did something dangerous – started following Smoking Man on twitter.

#68 Your Name Here on 06.03.17 at 10:59 pm

#55 Pete from St. Cesaire on 06.03.17 at 9:10 pm
………Look up the lyrics to her song “Side to Side”, use a slang dictionary if need be.

Meh.

For 60 whatever years, the topics of pop music songs are roughly as follows:

1% about a deep topic,

4% about driving a fast or cool car,

95% about some kind of screwing.

I am a bit fortunate that my own youngster prefers the 1% thinking-person’s pop/rock over the fluff, but, I am not all that bothered by her hearing the fluffy trash. No different than my day.

#69 Figmund Sreud on 06.03.17 at 11:09 pm

Perspective
___________________

Yes. We now are in the midsts of an age where anguish over the killing of the innocents is calibrated according to who is responsible for their deaths. This is currently, vividly demonstrated, how low the hypocrisy in “The West” has descended. Hence consequences, ….

Anyway, a resultant main consequence is: … if you are prepared to be invested in the market – long term (… say a decade), then it makes best sense to invest through a S&P 500 index fund, … for example. But, … but if your time horizon is less than a decade, … say, five years or less – not so much, …

… but what do I know, … I’m now back in Cowtown – for a bit, and what I see locally is something alike:

http://www.royallepage.ca/en/property/alberta/dead-mans-flats/224-rivers-bend-close/6156796/mls43613/

It’s a fact: … that particular area got flushed out with run offs in June 19 – 21, 2013, … and will get flush out soon enough again and again, … and it ain’t Banff, … or even remotely Kananaskis! Oh, well, … delusional are amongst us!

Best,

F.S. – Comox, BC.

#70 Ronaldo on 06.03.17 at 11:11 pm

CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION state:

”Worldwide, tobacco use causes nearly 6 million deaths per year, and current trends show that tobacco use will cause more than 8 million deaths annually by 2030.
Cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000 deaths per year in the United States, including more than 41,000 deaths resulting from secondhand smoke exposure. This is about one in five deaths annually, or 1,300 deaths every day.”

How’s that for putting things into perspective?

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.03.17 at 11:21 pm

@#66 a reply to 17
“Have I oversimplified the discussion?”
******
Yes. Yes you have.

SWL1976 has an embarrasment of paranoia

#72 dr. talc on 06.03.17 at 11:25 pm

Norway Attack 22 07 2011

Woolwich Attack 22 05 2013

Brussels Attack 22 03 2016

Munich Attack 22 07 2016

London Attack 22 03 2017

Manchester Attack 22 05 2017

Bonus Numbers 5, 3, 7

#73 Randy on 06.03.17 at 11:33 pm

Another Ariana Grande concert ? Haven’t they suffered enuff ?

#74 AB Boxster on 06.03.17 at 11:45 pm

#60 to_be_frank on 06.03.17 at 9:47 pm

All they do is provide fodder for racists and xenophobes.
——————————–
Yeah.
Good time to focus on the racists and homophobes when innocent citizens are being slaughtered in London.
Moron.

#75 SWL1976 on 06.04.17 at 1:01 am

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz

@#66 a reply to 17

“Have I oversimplified the discussion?”

******

Yes. Yes you have.

SWL1976 has an embarrasment of paranoia

———-

Actually I was busy managing my new pizza shop you flatuating baffoon.

I am always willing to have reasonable and knowledgable conversations with what is really going on.

My biggest beef with geoengineering is the straight up secrecy by big government – mostly the US military industrial complex – and the misuse of resources by spraying our skies. There is a mountain of evidence out there for those who care to look.

It blows my mind how humanities – well the ones really demented enough to do this – solution to the problem is to attempt to block out the sun via solar radiation management.

Look it up, SRM – Solar Radiation Management is big oil’s solution to their pollution which has been made without any public input or discussion

#76 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.04.17 at 1:07 am

Doug,
You are way behind.
The Manchester attacks were two weeks ago.
The Brits moved on.
Sold out concert at Manchester Stadium.
Please spare us your weepy, creepy sanctimonious crap.
Another attack in London.
Are you gonna give us another sermon?
Or are you gonna study history on the atrcocities committed by the British Empire on the Arabs.
Don’t forget to teach your daughter that what goes around comes around.
Karma is a bitch.
Now go back to peddle your wares and tell us again how tragic loss of live boosts the markets.
Pretty sick if you ask me.

#77 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.04.17 at 1:18 am

#70 Ronaldo on 06.03.17 at 11:11 pm
CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION state:

”Worldwide, tobacco use causes nearly 6 million deaths per year, and current trends show that tobacco use will cause more than 8 million deaths annually by 2030.
Cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000 deaths per year in the United States, including more than 41,000 deaths resulting from secondhand smoke exposure. This is about one in five deaths annually, or 1,300 deaths every day.”

How’s that for putting things into perspective?
————-
In Austria, we used to say:
Alcohol and nicotine kills 50% of the populace, with out these vices, the other 50% die too.
Rhymes in German.
Remember, US and Canada are a very small % of the world’s population.
No need to get to serious about these things.

#78 Stock picker on 06.04.17 at 2:45 am

Terrorism has already won…..Canadians elected Trudeau…..Wynne…..Notley ….and now Horgan. Kiss this economy goodbye.

#79 westcdn on 06.04.17 at 3:35 am

My mother told me a story about being wrote into a will. I would yell at my neighbour when I saw her – “Hello Mrs. Busch”. Her children went ballistic. Let’s just say I got zero, which I is all know about. My parents would hide things from me. I really don’t care – that was their decision.

My former guy in the basement liked to gloat me. My former wife met an apparent rich guy which he was not shy to inform me. What I was going to say? The deal is done. By the way, I don’t think he is that wealthy as my former looks for part time work.

My neighbor, Donna, started nattering at me when I was on the roof cleaning my gutters. I was too old to be up there. I said, Donna, just be where are because if I fall off the roof it will likely to be fatal. Fast forward a few weekends. I was trying to sell a few things at a neighbour garage sale.

Donna walks over. How is it going? Zero I say. Then I complain I don’t whine about forces come that against me. She says I should whine more – she was a nurse.

#80 BS on 06.04.17 at 4:40 am

Comparing terrorism to other things that cause death is ridiculous. Terrorism’s harm is not just about the actual death it causes. It is how a person dies, who caused it and how many people it impacts. The senselessness, brutality and the amount of people each terrorism incident impacts is different from a person who dies due to their own actions, through risky behavior, through normal human behavior or due to nature taking its course. That is the whole point of terrorism. It is like comparing rape to consensual sex or getting robbed at gun point to losing your wallet.

#81 maxx on 06.04.17 at 7:19 am

#6 Entrepreneur on 06.03.17 at 4:32 pm

“Wonder if the fossil fuel oil/gas pipelines then pass the carbon tax/Paris accord on the same thinking as availability bias. Make it look good but really covering up the earth-sucking fossil fuel projects that harm basically anything in its path. What is that call? Is there a special term for that?”

“Life razing, earth-destroying, planet poisoning, nothing matters but money bias.”

#82 Wrk.dover on 06.04.17 at 7:22 am

Too much traction in the reports of the attacks. When Charlie Brown opens the National for ten minutes giving details like a teenage victims aspirations for a cancelled future, would be terrorists have got to be high fiveing it.

When 25 die in Kabul, what, ten seconds of coverage?

#83 maxx on 06.04.17 at 7:45 am

#22 A Reply to #10 Smoking Man on 06.03.17 at 6:01 pm

” “It demon straights [demonstrates] some of my skills….”

Was your spelling of the word “demonstrates” intentional? And, if so, to what purpose?

I didn’t detect any spelling errors in your entire post (except for some minor capitalization typos). What gives?”

Smoke doesn’t do typos. “large scream tv” – excellent.

#84 maxx on 06.04.17 at 8:07 am

#32 Pete on 06.03.17 at 7:02 pm

” “Terrorists generate fear, they don’t alter fundamentals.” -Doug

So were the Japanese and Nazis in the year of 1940. Until Pearl Harbour and Dunkirk.”

Also, there is no equivalent in these situations to stopping trading whenever “the market” pleases.

#85 Rexx Rock on 06.04.17 at 10:11 am

England has high immigration just like Canada but worse.Its sad the goverments choose this policy when the people know its not needed or wanted.Its all planned for whatever reason but its not for the good for the safety of its citizens.

Where did your family emigrate from? — Garth

#86 Doug Rowat on 06.04.17 at 10:11 am

#80 BS on 06.04.17 at 4:40 am

Comparing terrorism to other things that cause death is ridiculous. Terrorism’s harm is not just about the actual death it causes. It is how a person dies, who caused it and how many people it impacts.

The point of the post is that terrorism hardly ever affects the market, not whether terrorism is scary. Of course it is.

–Doug

#87 conan on 06.04.17 at 10:15 am

This is a war of ideology, except the West does not yet have an ideology, to counter what is coming out of the ME.

Every stupid thing that the West does in the ME causes the “Crusader can of worms” to open. In a nut shell, Saladin cut a deal with the Crusaders, and the Crusaders broke that deal. The People were pissed off with Saladin, and certain other people said they will deal with this” crusader problem” in their own way. That way was massive terrorism and bloodshed directed at innocence. It worked, and the Crusaders noped off back to Europe.

So, what’s happened, is these guys are back again, and their ideology is getting traction. These enemies do not care about innocents dying. Nor do they care about strapping explosives on their bodies. They get their funding from surprising sources. That is, leaders who do not want to be attacked by them, so they them give them money to go away.

ISIS is a problem created by us. They have to be eliminated using force, it is too late to do anything else.

What are the long term big picture solutions?

1) stop doing stupid things in the ME that exasperate the problem.

2 Change our ideology, and bring forth the ideas that bring people together.

3) We have to show the World that we can solve the major problems of our times. That we are the guiding light to follow.

Do these things and the radical terrorists will eventually go away.

#88 jess on 06.04.17 at 10:15 am

Toddlers killed more Americans than terrorists in 2015. according to snopes True
====================
dirty tricks
update : maker of “sting” videos ”

http://www.snopes.com/2017/06/03/james-okeefe-federal-lawsuit/

==========
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2017/05/is_anthony_kennedy_ready_to_put_an_end_to_partisan_gerrymandering.html

Death to the Gerrymander
How Paul Smith might defeat unconstitutional redistricting once and for all.
By Mark Joseph Stern

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2017/01/death_to_the_gerrymander_paul_smith_might_defeat_unconstitutional_redistricting.html

Last November, some of these new approaches helped convince a United States district court to invalidate the Wisconsin state assembly district map — the first time in more than 30 years that any federal court has struck down a map for being unconstitutionally partisan. That case is now bound for the Supreme Court.
==========
how to pack and crack
https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-mathematics-behind-gerrymandering-20170404

#89 TurnerNation on 06.04.17 at 10:34 am

Actually a larger problem is that our food has become completely weaponized.
– As per their web site a large McDonalds milkshake is worth over 1100 calories. No milk in there.

Ditto for SBUX – a cold coffee drink, 580 calories.
– A KFC meal say 3 chicken pieces and large fries is 1800+ calories as per their site.
– In Bulk barn most every nut product is fried in GMO soy oil.
– Every prepared food from sauces to cereal is first or second ingredient glucose fructose with GMO canola oil later on.
We need only 2000 cal per day?

Killing us softly. And big pharma will have pricey “treatments” for what ails us.

#90 HaHaHa on 06.04.17 at 10:46 am

One poster is right lets call them what they are cowards. Its not these cowards that are killing innocents it is liberals and the fairy tale attitudes they have towards life. Call it what it is. The sugar coated attitudes that prevail today will get more and more killed. But by the time the weak kneed liberal’s finally figure out the problem they will want the rest of us so called racists,homophobes, and antifeminists to step up and save their asses. Good luck with that. Gonna sit back and watch the entertainment. That’s what it really is at this point. A tragic dark comedy really.

Tragic & dark? Look in the mirror. — Garth

#91 to_be_frank on 06.04.17 at 10:48 am

#74 AB Boxster

My comment was intended as parody of the typical liberal/left response to these attacks. Sorry you missed it. The threshold of parody is a very high bar to clear, given the prevailing lunacy.

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.17 at 10:50 am

@#75 SWL1976
“Actually I was busy managing my new pizza shop you flatuating baffoon…..”
********

I’m a baffled buffoon….
Does the airborne aerosol affect accurate air quality assumptions or just your agoraphobia?
Or does the “sky scent” scramble SWL’s spelling syntax?
Either way.
Paranioa pervades your pretentious pandering to peoples preposterous internet pitter patter.

#93 Roman Empire justice on 06.04.17 at 11:10 am

DELETED

#94 Trumpocalypse2017 on 06.04.17 at 11:11 am

D-Day is no longer June 6.

From here on, it will be remembered as June 8.

What will happen this week will change the world forever.

UK Election:

– how many terrorist attacks before and after, how much internal chaos will be unleashed?

Comey testimony:

-the beginning of the last days of Trump

-or, will Comey be assassinated;

-or, will Trump begin war with Korea or someone else this week to distract from his troubles?

-will Russia seize upon US internal strife and European disarray to take over the Baltics and eastern Europe – since they know summer is the best time for war?

D-Week is here.

Do NOT plan to be in urban areas after Thursday until further notice.

Prepare.

***Final preparedness 4:20 meetup in the planning for Belfountain this week. Stay tuned/

#95 Brian Ripley on 06.04.17 at 12:29 pm

“There’s no place in capital markets for chicken littles” Doug Rowat

I just updated my TSX Indexes chart: http://www.chpc.biz/tsx-indexes.html

The Real Estate Index smells like a crowded chicken coop.

#96 War is terrorism on 06.04.17 at 12:37 pm

Sowing the seeds of war. What are the consequences of war. If we were the innocent people being bombed, who is the terrorist then? Let’s use the Viet Nam war. If you were living get peacefully in your village, and then your whole way of life is destroyed, who is the terrorist?

#97 Doug Rowat on 06.04.17 at 12:41 pm

#89 TurnerNation on 06.04.17 at 10:34 am

Actually a larger problem is that our food has become completely weaponized.
– As per their web site a large McDonalds milkshake is worth over 1100 calories. No milk in there.

Ditto for SBUX – a cold coffee drink, 580 calories.
– A KFC meal say 3 chicken pieces and large fries is 1800+ calories as per their site.

I did mention heart disease is the #1 killer in the US. However, a veggie salad doesn’t sound nearly as good as everything you just listed.

–Doug

#98 Old Dog on 06.04.17 at 1:01 pm

Can we put global warming to bed.
The earth has been warming for several thousand years now. We’er still coming out of the ice age. Can we stop global warming? No we can’t. Global warming is a very complex mechanism that we don’t fully understand. Do several billion humans add to it, yes of course. Can spending 100 trillion dollars on it by 2100 make a difference? You decide if lowering the temperature by less than three tenths of a degree is worth it. That’s apparently equivalent to postponing global warming by 4 years. People always seem to need some kind of catastrophe to focus on. Y2K, Aztec calendar, the end of the world is always near. This one is perfect, it’s ongoing, forever. The populations will willingly hand over trillions of dollars to be distributed by the U.N. to save the earth. How has that worked out in the past? I personally would rather see the trillions of dollars used to eradicate disease, hunger, and homelessness in the world than to be spent on something we can’t stop. We also need to spend money on adapting to the warming earth. For some parts of the world a warming planet will be a positive. For some a negative. You may want to also take a look at the life style of those who are pushing it the most. Dicaprio, Suzuki, Gore, Obama, Musk, Trudeau, and on and on. They all have carbon footprints the size of small cities. Did you ever ask yourself how come they can live like that, but you’re not supposed to. And before you ask, yes I do have a science degree and yes I was born with B.S. detectors.

#99 SWL1976 on 06.04.17 at 1:12 pm

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz

@#75 SWL1976

“Actually I was busy managing my new pizza shop you flatuating baffoon…..”

********

I’m a baffled buffoon….

Does the airborne aerosol affect accurate air quality assumptions or just your agoraphobia?

Or does the “sky scent” scramble SWL’s spelling syntax?

Either way.

Paranioa pervades your pretentious pandering to peoples preposterous internet pitter patter.

—————–

You’re a very small man on the inside and it shows here.

Not much different from the frat boys we delivered pizza to last night in the million dollar house and driveway full of toys whining about the price of pizza

In fact you would probably get along quite well with the bunch and have the same grasp on the subject for which this conversation arose

#100 Long-Time Lurker on 06.04.17 at 1:33 pm

Dr. Lacy Hunt: The Fed’s Monetary Policy Is Undermining the System… Debt is Hurtling the US toward an Economic Crisis.

10m34s

http://investmentwatchblog.com/lacy-hunt-the-feds-monetary-policy-is-undermining-the-system-debt-is-hurtling-the-us-toward-an-economic-crisis/

This is an excellent analysis of the effect of the US Federal Reserve on the US economy. It’s relevant to Canada because our central bank also has a zero-interest rate policy.

El-Erian: A ‘black swan’ is most likely to come from a geopolitical shock, European crisis.

Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed A. El-Erian on what could be a ‘black swan’ for the markets and what sectors to invest in.

3m24s

http://investmentwatchblog.com/el-erian-a-black-swan-is-most-likely-to-come-from-a-geopolitical-shock-european-crisis/

El-Erian has 30% of his portfolio in cash.

#101 conan on 06.04.17 at 2:00 pm

#98 Old Dog on 06.04.17 at 1:01 pm

You are correct, it is too late to stop it. I think the scientists in the 1970’s were correct- ” stop now, or the permafrost will melt, then we are all f’d.”

We can slow it down though, so we should boldly go to green solutions, in haste. I believe the 99% of climate scientists that are peer reviewed, and making TA dollars, over the Exxon sponsored, non climate specialists, picking up some easy dollars.

No where in your post are you talking about reducing carbon pollution, which is a nutso position, considering what is going on.

Doing nothing about climate change will create a 50 trillion dollar problem. Refugees, war, terrorism, hunger, you name it. Google desertification, millions of people have already had to move, just in the last decade.

#102 Trading Naked on 06.04.17 at 2:23 pm

I get that terrorist events shouldn’t affect our portfolio strategy. The Andex chart in every Big 5 banker’s office tells us so. But surely these events have an economic impact. My question: does this economic impact filter through to the markets in the long run?

I’ve been travelling to Paris a lot over the past 15 years. I was just there a couple of months ago. And it’s dead, man. I got a hotel room next to the Eiffel Tower for 100 euros. That’s unheard of. “Springtime in Paris” ought to be a madhouse where I can’t walk down the street without bashing into a tour group or breaking some tourist’s selfie stick. It wasn’t. Does this matter to the markets?

#103 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.04.17 at 2:49 pm

@#98 SWL1976
“You’re a very small man on the inside and it shows here…..”
+++++++

Presumptions postulated by the pizza dough pounding preambulator pose a prickly predicament.
Do I indulge in idiotic insinuations involving ignoramouses and ignore internet insanity involving isidious “chem trail” rumours?
OR
Do I sadly shake my head at the simpletons that suck up silly, simplistic, scientifically scoffed, pseudo stories of secret squads spraying in the sky….?

#104 Herb on 06.04.17 at 3:04 pm

Nice job in putting the personal and economic risk of terrorism in perspective, Doug. Let me add a non-propaganda primer for the understanding of terrorism as a whole.

Terrorism is the continuation of war by other means. As succinctly put by a captured terrorist who was put on display at a press conference during the Algerian War and asked about their bombs hidden in shopping baskets killing innocent women and children, “Give us your bombers, and we will give you our bombs.”

Lacking the means to defeat opposing armed forces, terrorists strike at the opposing civilian population to drive home the cost of the war, divert resources to their protection, and persuade them to demand an end to the conflict. Terrorism was not invented on 9/11 but has been used since biblical times.

All terrorism is local. It results from a situation that is specific in cause, time and space. The terrorism du jour is the reaction of affected locals (and non-local supporters) to American and European actions in the Middle East.

It is inconvenient to address situations that result in terrorism. The 9/11 attack would not have happened if the USA had not aroused opposition to their intense involvement in the Middle East. “They [don’t] hate our freedom”, to correct G.W. Bush, they hate our freedom to operate there as we see fit. Britain and France are US allies already having baggage in that part of the world, and other targeted NATO allies joined in USA operations there after 9/11. For terrorists responding to these invasive foreign actions, all are enemies, and their populations legitimate targets to serve terrorist ends. Now, there is no chance of the USA leaving that field, so this iteration of terrorism will continue.

We should know by now that terrorist acts by small groups or individuals cannot be prevented, but will have to be accepted as ‘collateral damage’ in the pursuit of larger political/economic ends. Brutally, it will be a cost of doing business. War in itself is the pursuit of political or economic goals by military force. Ideology has nothing to do with it, except as a propaganda rationale.

Terrorists are not cowards. Consider whether cowards would learn to fly large airplanes and proceed on one-way missions guaranteeing certain death, or detonate an explosive device that will destroy them as well as any target, or strike in a European city given the certainty of being outnumbered and out-gunned by police. Is it really more cowardly to stab someone face-to-face than to pulverize them from a distance?

The times when civilian populations were protected in law and practice are long gone. In war, innocent civilians are killed as well as soldiers. In modern wars, more innocents than soldiers. Might as well face the facts and forget the propaganda.

#105 Contrarian Coyote on 06.04.17 at 4:36 pm

#88 jess on 06.04.17 at 10:15 am
Toddlers killed more Americans than terrorists in 2015. according to snopes True
====================
dirty tricks
update : maker of “sting” videos ”

http://www.snopes.com/2017/06/03/james-okeefe-federal-lawsuit/

==========

If you’re using Snopes as your internet factchecker, you’ve got problems.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4042194/Facebook-fact-checker-arbitrate-fake-news-accused-defrauding-website-pay-prostitutes-staff-includes-escort-porn-star-Vice-Vixen-domme.html

http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/12/22/snopes-ceo-accused-in-divorce-proceedings-of-embezzling-company-money-to-spend-on-prostitutes/

#106 Robert White on 06.04.17 at 4:58 pm

False flag terrorism is the modus operandi of the CIA, NSA, FBI, and MI5&6, plus MOSAD, Israel, et cetera. Ponzi Finance relies on False Flag Terrorism to generate panic & irrational exuberance with respect to animal spirits. The Black Hand bets on volatility created by the FFT. Furthermore, this is centrally planned Geopolitical warfare that was instituted, and signed off by, the oligopolists & illuminati Ponzi Financiers like Rothschild, Rockefeller, et al.

Get with the programme, eh.

RW

#107 Stock Picker on 06.04.17 at 5:19 pm

Why absolutely no coverage or commentary on the approx 5000 person anti Trudeau demonstration in Ottawa yesterday? Seems very unlike Canadians…..but lots are obviously getting very pissed off…..because demonstrations against Canadian liberals are so unusual.

#108 maxx on 06.04.17 at 5:49 pm

#97 Doug Rowat on 06.04.17 at 12:41 pm

“#89 TurnerNation on 06.04.17 at 10:34 am

Actually a larger problem is that our food has become completely weaponized.
– As per their web site a large McDonalds milkshake is worth over 1100 calories. No milk in there.

Ditto for SBUX – a cold coffee drink, 580 calories.
– A KFC meal say 3 chicken pieces and large fries is 1800+ calories as per their site.

I did mention heart disease is the #1 killer in the US. However, a veggie salad doesn’t sound nearly as good as everything you just listed.

–Doug”

Doug you really are batting a thousand today.

Let’s take a closer look at those yummy offerings. Quite apart from the mostly empty, calorific content, many of the “ingredients” also offer the following:

A whacking great dose of sugar: highly inflammatory, ergo the nexus of many degenerative diseases: diabetes (in kids!), arthritis, atherosclerosis and cancer, to name a few;

Dairy “component”: If from the US, plenty of GMOs, growth hormone and pesticide residue, due to the feed cattle munch on; GMOs actually grow in your gut, so 18-24 hours later, you haven’t got rid of them, no, no – they are the gift that keeps on giving. Look up leaky gut and the health problems that causes.

Gums and thickeners: inflame the gut and may lead to IBS.

Partially hydrogenated oils: Inflammatory and turn your arteries into long spaghetti gummies.

Iced drinkie-thingies and fast food fried chicken, with a side of muffin top? Pass. The food of misery, beginning with the animals.

What’s the point of fretting over and working to accumulate dinero if your dinner is delivering a far shorter and uncomfortable, if not painful life?

Turner Nation makes a great point. Here’s an easy portal: have a read through any supermarket flyer and ask yourself how much of that flyer’s “edibles” are actual food. Real food. With enzymes and their complement of micro-nutrients that haven’t been killed off through processing for “taste”. The whole kind – and I’m not even started on organic. I usually top out at 10%. The rest is largely anti-nutrition.

Processed fast “food” is the ultimate bad investment.

#109 allan on 06.04.17 at 11:04 pm

No need to worry about Terrorism as more people die of heart attacks. Nothing to see here folks, keep those borders open.