Not again…

Twice have I written about the dusty pile of country bricks that I lost my mind and purchased eighteen months ago – proving I do not hate real estate. The Belfountain General Store, someone’s baby in 1888, is now my baby.

Lorna and The Girls got it opened again for Season Two a few weeks ago, and the place has been rocking. My job, as owner, is to sweep the patio, and stay out of the way. I’ve learned to do both well. Sometimes I scoop, too, when the ice cream parlour is packed, but probably suck at it. In any case, hanging out with people in the store adds an element to life that sitting in a bank tower, managing money or massaging clients’ taxes, lacks. The talk is about dogs, cars, kids, bikes, eats and fun, instead of ETFs and basis points. The General Store grounds and connects people, just as a 68-storey building in downtown Toronto with security doors everywhere divides them.

Sure, my day job is fine. It gave me the cash to restore a dying building and hire nineteen kids. I’m blessed and know it. But this project reminds the goal of life is not to amass a pile of money, rather to do interesting things and make the most of the asset we can never earn or borrow. Time. It’s weird, but I relish my sweeping hours.

Anyway, last year a fallen billionaire in Wal-mart flip flops showed up in a broken Ford Ranger. Smoking Man turned out to be less flaky than one would think, but far from normal. He was focused on meeting Bandit and picking my brain on how to publish his nasty little book about a talking penis (so I’m told). He spent $1.79, and looked at me expecting to pick up the tab. I ignored it.

Dorothy went by and he threw his battered phone at her, asking for a picture.

Well, he’s at it again. Without my knowledge or consent, Smokey has called for some sort of pathetic, debauched gathering to take place at the General Store next Saturday, the 13th. He may bring his untrained, demented dog with him, plus unwanted promotional T-shirts for his failed book and assume there are people who actually want to meet him. This post is to assure the authorities I have had no hand in organizing Blog Dogapalusa, and will disown anything that happens.

He arrives at 1:30. I’ll be sweeping.

$ $ $

Some think this may be the perfect storm. Significant new layoffs in Calgary and across the country at Great-West Life. The continuing implosion at Home Capital. Higher US interest rates and lower American taxes. Trump trade disputes. The dollar at 72 cents. Oil now at $45. Ontario hammering the residential real estate market. BC about to go Dipper. The feds spending like Ivanka. Personal debt bigger than the whole economy. And a 65% increase in new-house prices in the GTA. In one year.

Yup, this is not ideal, but it’s not a crash scenario. Not yet. There’s little doubt the melt for housing has started in many markets, however nobody should be expecting a 30% drop in property values over the next year. It took us most of a decade to get here, and years will be required for the unwinding. Those who argue residential real estate will continue to soar are detached from reality. Those who come here to promote disaster as equally unhinged.

The anecdotal evidence of a serious slowdown is now universal. The latest sales stats from most markets, including the GTA, confirms the rocket ride higher is done. This summer could well see prices dip year/year in every market in Canada – but it will not be time to buy. There’s much more coming. No sudden plop. But a lengthy melt.

You moisters might consider this strategy.

203 comments ↓

#1 suburban coyote and pup on 05.04.17 at 6:40 pm

blog dogs at Belfountain May 13. I will be there with Sam my leg humping shipoo!

onf52

#2 Tkid on 05.04.17 at 6:42 pm

I wanna come but might have to work.

#3 HERE WE GO AGAIN on 05.04.17 at 6:42 pm

We haven’t learned anything from 2008.

Housing Market Crash | Inside the Meltdown | Behind the Big Short

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBuJhJ6ZtpA&t=4229s

#4 Dave on 05.04.17 at 6:44 pm

Toronto homeowners are now scrambling to get out. Good job, hope your homes don’t linger on the market :P

https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/toronto-homeowners-scramble-cash-april-new-listings-soar-33/

Plus HCG is seeking more emergency capital apparently. Ridiculous.

#5 Suede on 05.04.17 at 6:44 pm

Wow, from blog dog to front page. twice now.

Smokey has done it, folks.

#6 Sebee on 05.04.17 at 6:45 pm

Hard to respect any man who wears flip flops and is not:
a) in the shower
b) at the beach
c) diabetic

#7 Cici on 05.04.17 at 6:48 pm

“My job, as owner, is to sweep the patio and stay out of the way”

Wow, I need to talk to Lorna, because after seven years of unwed matrimony, my beau still doesn’t get that the kitchen is my space and that at least while I’m cooking, he is supposed to stay out of the way. Lorna, how did you train Garth?

#8 chicken dinner on 05.04.17 at 6:49 pm

First!

So many dum posters attack me yesterday. Well look who win now! dum! dum!

winner winner chicken dinner!!

#9 I'm Not Poloz on 05.04.17 at 6:50 pm

Poloz was furious that you talked about a 72-cent Loonie. Poloz wants a 27-cent Loonie, 10 euro cent and 8 cent Pound Loonie to boost exports.

Poloz will find a way to declare that even with a 0.00000000000000000000001 cent loonie, there is “No inflation”, and that there is “excess capacity” in the Canadian economy.

Watch out on May 24, 2017: Poloz will cut rates to lower the Loonie to pre-65 cent range as a “shock absorb-er”, but expect the price of cars to increase by 15% or more because of Trump trade wars.

Poloz is aiming for a 50-cent Loonie

#10 Hoonigan on 05.04.17 at 6:52 pm

Your joint needs an espresso machine to compete with the place across the road.

Nice to see someone put some love into that place, and save it from the Vegan/New Age Centre it tried to be before.

#11 Sylar on 05.04.17 at 6:53 pm

Video is priceless today!!

#12 soost on 05.04.17 at 6:55 pm

First Post?
So smoking mans a real guy?

This I gotta see. See you at the store!

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.04.17 at 6:59 pm

I didnt think Smokey was allowed to go more than a 60 mile radius from home….unless his doctor okay’d it.. or was that his probation officer…..?

#14 Shane on 05.04.17 at 7:01 pm

Garth, you look Kevin Spacey in that photo

#15 conan on 05.04.17 at 7:03 pm

What are your top selling ice cream flavors Garth? Did Tiger tail end up being a good seller?

#16 Fed-up on 05.04.17 at 7:04 pm

You hear that blog dogs? Ill advised to buy in 2007-08 but if you wait until 2028-30, you may be able to buy at those old inflation adjusted prices once again. No guarantee of course.

Let’s all hope adult diapers aren’t too pricey by then.

#17 OttawaMike on 05.04.17 at 7:05 pm

Sending my regrets as I will be in the GTA the weekend after the long weekend. I know it will be an interesting meetup at the store.

Real estate declines. nope. not here. My manager lost out on a bidding war for a Westboro place that had 1 week of showings with a set date for offers. It went for $70k over asking.

Pretty well everything is up 10-15% since the feds and wynites intervened. Thanks Libs! Another job well done.

#18 bdwy sktrn on 05.04.17 at 7:07 pm

#4 chicken dinner on 05.04.17 at 6:49 pm
First!

So many dum posters attack me yesterday. Well look who win now! dum! dum!

winner winner chicken dinner!!
——————–
aren’t you supposed to be on facebook?

#19 Ummm on 05.04.17 at 7:08 pm

All it’s going to take is for a recession to trigger the crash. No job = no money = disaster.

I wish I can come for some ice-cream but my wife won’t let me hang out with the cool kids in fear of getting into trouble…

#20 OttawaMike on 05.04.17 at 7:09 pm

I suspect if Smoking Man didn’t drink he’d be commanding the international Space Station or competing with Elon Musk.

Instead he stumbles through life seeing what most can’t see.

#21 Bubba Gump on 05.04.17 at 7:10 pm

You called it Garth….a slow melt. Home Capital was a smallish player in a bigger pond. A small domino if you will. Reminds me of this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y97rBdSYbkg

#22 Fed-up on 05.04.17 at 7:12 pm

“And a 65% increase in new-house prices in the GTA. In one year.”

“however nobody should be expecting a 30% drop in property values over the next year. It took us most of a decade to get here, and years will be required for the unwinding.”

Ummmm it didn’t take that long at all for prices to climb 30%.

Apples (pre-builds) and oranges (resales). — Garth

#23 Ron on 05.04.17 at 7:13 pm

“The anecdotal evidence of a serious slowdown is now universal.”

So is the anecdotal evidence of foreign money. We know you’re a ‘numbers guy’ but glad to hear you acknowledge that anecdotal evidence carries at least some weight.

#24 Big Oil Small Staff on 05.04.17 at 7:15 pm

I’m working in Alberta as an executive consultant at a massive oil company. I flew in last week. I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw around 40% of cubicles are empty and staff are moaning about more layoffs coming. There is talk of further belt tightening even beyond the next round of layoffs. The company is preparing for oil to potentially not come back within the foreseeable future and even drop again before stabilizing. The strategy is to replace three or four full-time, expensive, entitled staff who are used to lazy days at a big oil firm with one hungry consultant willing to take on the work of them all. Makes total sense financially but its going to be very painful for some.

#25 poor Canadian people on 05.04.17 at 7:16 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/the-real-estate-technique-fuelling-vancouvers-housing-market/article28634868/

#26 Rainclouds on 05.04.17 at 7:16 pm

Meanwhile her in the land of stupid I am enduring U2 “practicing” at provincially owned BC Place for the next 10 friggin days. Dont they already know the words and music to their tiresome 30 yr old Joshua Tree ……….?

It will last till 11pm, by then I will be ready to strangle each and every one of those Irish posers

Apparently according to the govt dickheads I’m supposed to enjoy the “free music”! Maybe I should go sing Solidarity Forever for Christy with a megaphone outside her office.

#27 Chaddywack on 05.04.17 at 7:19 pm

Crash, slow melt, I don’t care. I just want people in Vancouver talking about something…..anything other than their houses and how much money they’ve made!

I remember once upon a time people talked about other things in Vancouver like the weather, outdoor activities, or the idiot NDP government that was in power…..hopefully these days will come again soon!

#28 Vit on 05.04.17 at 7:24 pm

I doubt we going to have a slow melt down more like a stagnation . With CAN $ lower all building materials will go up in price . Ex. I noticed in HD price of base boards went up and apparently Home D buys them in Chile ….
With a shrinking demand builders will build even less so the market can be like 2008-2010 – you know that the $$$ went lower but no body want to sell you lower …

#29 Vit on 05.04.17 at 7:25 pm

#22 same in GTA

#30 Mark on 05.04.17 at 7:29 pm

After Toronto RE plateaued in 2013, the speculators, the “landlord families”, sitting on their minimal cashflow properties, have become increasingly desperate. Cashflow doesn’t provide for the BMW-owning, send-the-kids-to-dental school lifestyle. So all that was left was to create the delusion of appreciation by flipping properties between friends in an attempt to create higher valuations.

Outfits, obviously without good access to true numbers and an understanding of the sales mix, such as HCG, bought the delusion of ‘appreciation’ hook, line and sinker, and wrote loans at the falsely high “valuations”.

Now the market is correctly calling “bullsh*t” on HCG, and has removed its funding. Toronto house prices are plummeting as a result of such. The sell-side has almost zero credibility whatsoever. Like claiming 33% systemic appreciation in the past year? Seriously? Does anyone with a brain actually believe that? When people call their Realtors and get a list of ‘comparables’ for their houses, they’re not being shown any appreciation since 2013. That’s why the listings are ‘low’, but with prices apparently now in freefall (ie: going even lower than the 2013 apex prices), there’s now an emerging rush of people trying to get out to save their skin.

Should be an interesting and very long summer. And fall. I just wonder if Poloz really understands what he’s up against here and starts cutting the rates on the 24th to save the Canadian economy from implosion.

#31 Kat on 05.04.17 at 7:29 pm

I could have afforded a house in my early twenties but now in my late thirties I am priced out. I should have listened to my realtor friend and purchased in 2006 but life traveling was way more fun than having responsibilities like owning a house.

#32 Rates vs Capital on 05.04.17 at 7:34 pm

Therein lies the little dirty secret of renting and sidelining it for the big crash….

Over a 100% increase in property values since the dire warnings started and now – meh, a slow melt of 20% or 30%.

A nice post to moderate your expectations after years of pundits and experts and media calling for a crash.

So, you can buy now and watch you equity melt for 10 years or you can keep renting for 10 years waiting for prices to go back to ‘fundamentals.’ Its been a 13 year bull run, and since prices are ‘sticky on the way down’ its going be a 13 year bear run at least.

For those of you in cities with high rents, do the math – you will likely find that you will spend more on 10-13 years of rent than 10-13 years of owning with a 20% decline in prices.

Not really an incentive to sit it out – seems like there was never an reason to sit on the sidelines right?

Ouch…

That is of course assuming that this ‘eroding market’ and ‘plunge in sales’ actually yields any materials results. As the Vancouver market has demonstrated, it went off a cliff, but Willy Coyote is still there and in fact flying higher. There is clearly the distinct potential for even higher highs given that we have been disconnected from fundamentals (income to price) for a decade…

Vancouver Housing Market Rebounds
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/vancouver+housing+market+rebounds+from+impact+with+prices+three/13340267/story.html

What everyone ignores is T2’s own words – Canada has no core national identity and will be the first post-national state. While an oxymoron, it has been laid clear that global residents and global capital will have free reign over Canada. Our politicians actively solicit foreign capital and care not if it is legal or illicit – and care even less if they contribute to local economies, tax bases, or community ties.

Another great read by the esteemed NT Times on the tour of foreign capital in BC real estate:

““The government is selling B.C. as a tax haven for the global elite to park investment here, but not have to contribute.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/02/world/canada/british-columbias-business-temptation-an-opaque-array-of-tax-breaks.html?_r=0

The gap between the rich and the poor will only grow in Canada. Vancouver is already a playground resort community for the global wealthy. That transformation of cities will continue over the years until Vancouver gets replicated in other cities – we are already seeing the Vancouverization of the GTA.

Remember, a house is apparently not a right. It should not be protected in Canada like it is in China, Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Mexico, or any other number of countries that put the needs of their domestic citizens against that of foreign capital.

Apparently, it does not matter that high priced housing due in part to foreign capital increases income stratification; increases homelessness; undermines the local population to afford to have kids; erodes local economies; indebts the nation; creates intergenerational angst; or destroys community and family linkages.

So, renters and those that cashed out – the future is not so bright now right? Personally, I have still been eating my popcorn watching the show of the continued sell off of Canada and the transformation of local real estate into a speculative commodity. Oh, and its a long long movie indeed…

#33 Financial Freedom at Fourty on 05.04.17 at 7:36 pm

Calendar marked. Pack it so Garth has to stop sweeping and start scooping. Bandit will have his own fan group on 4 legs. Group pic?

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.04.17 at 7:39 pm

@#26 Rainclouds
“I am enduring U2 “practicing” at provincially owned BC Place for the next 10 friggin days….”
*******

Are ya braggin or complainin? :)

I was wondering if it was annoying the “peeps” around BC Place.
The price of livin in dwntwn Van I guess.

It could be worse….I hear the “Beebs” wants to practice at BC Place…..

#35 akashic record on 05.04.17 at 7:41 pm

Some think this may be the perfect storm. Significant new layoffs in Calgary and across the country at Great-West Life. The continuing implosion at Home Capital. Higher US interest rates and lower American taxes. Trump trade disputes. The dollar at 72 cents. Oil now at $45. Ontario hammering the residential real estate market. BC about to go Dipper. The feds spending like Ivanka. Personal debt bigger than the whole economy.

===

Add this to your nice, long list:

“With debt ceilings, spending plans, and tax reforms focusing all eyes on Washington, we thought it notable that for the first time in US history, the cost of interest on US government debt has risen above half a trillion dollars…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-04/has-never-happened

#36 Nonplused on 05.04.17 at 7:42 pm

Good work with the store Garth. Everything you touch seems to turn to gold! We should call you Midas from now on.

Unfortunately if you run a public store you can’t keep Smoking Man out unless he is unruly or disturbing other customers. And you did invite all the blog dogs to come visit you there. I won’t be coming it’s too far away.

Also congratulations on your prowess at hiring staff. If all you have to do as owner is sweep you must have hired the right people.

I guess my question is why is this a summer only operation? Are there not enough locals to “float” through winter with a supply of reasonably priced staples like a 7-11, so at least some of the staff can be full year? Or is that a longer range goal if things go well?

It also dawns on me that in a rural area rebuilding an old building and creating a viable business is a dog-send for the young people in the area, creating jobs where there were none, even if they are only entry level. They are planning a Centex – Tim Horton’s withing walking distance of my house and my son, only 11, can’t wait to see construction underway (it’s been held up due to architectural issues, this ain’t the hood you know). He sees jobs, donuts, and slushies within walking distance and he’s pumped. I don’t have the heart to tell him he’s too young to work there yet, but it ain’t built yet either. All they’ve done is take down the old gas station.

It does show that the 3 rules of real estate remains “location, location, location”. They are trying to rezone that area a “village center”, and it’s right beside the community hall (which is pretty nice) and the school (which is fairly modern), the soccer and baseball fields (which are of good quality), and the proposed hockey arena, all within walking distance of my house. And I am only 30 minutes from downtown and 5 minutes from the train. Maybe that’ll save some of the money I spent on this shack when the correction finally comes.

#37 prairiedenial on 05.04.17 at 7:42 pm

@#6 thank you*** for flip-flop post. laughed long enough to have seratonin to spare….re: video. Millennial with a sense of humour…..rare, precious thing….sadly this video is so true and shows what I think is 75% of the culprit, Baby Boomer parents unable/unwilling to believe/accept the economy/world very very different for their children. for those Boomers who end up with kids in basement….you did it to yourselves by telling them they had a ‘university degree’ and not to settle….signed Gen X

#38 fred on 05.04.17 at 7:44 pm

‘But this project reminds the goal of life is not to amass a pile of money, rather to do interesting things and make the most of the asset we can never earn or borrow. Time.’

……..

classic

#39 CP24 caller complaining nothing is selling on 05.04.17 at 7:44 pm

Its crashing. Nothing on the market is selling and complaining their are thousands od houses on the market. The realtors talking poop. There is all out panic setting in.

#40 lemmiwinks on 05.04.17 at 7:46 pm

Garth, you look like Ricky Gervais from The Office. I have googled Smoking man and found his twitter and blog but none the wiser as to who he is.

#41 dakkie on 05.04.17 at 7:46 pm

Canada’s banking system may be crashing before our eyes

http://investmentwatchblog.com/canadas-banking-system-may-be-crashing-before-our-eyes/

Crap. — Garth

#42 Pete from St. Cesaire on 05.04.17 at 7:50 pm

For those of you in cities with high rents, do the math – you will likely find that you will spend more on 10-13 years of rent than 10-13 years of owning with a 20% decline in prices.
—————————————————-
You’re only figuring in the monetary loss from the decline, not the repairs, insurance, land taxes, loss of potential return on the money in the house, etc.

#43 Rates vs Capital on 05.04.17 at 7:50 pm

Mark #30

Who brought the stoner to the movie?

You must have some seriously good stuff to keep spouting that prices have gone no where…

PS – Stay away from my popcorn…

#44 Marty on 05.04.17 at 7:51 pm

Studying for CPA law exam and this paragraph really reminds me of Derek’s situation

“The courts may grant relief when a party enters into a contract under a basic
misunderstanding, although not in every case. The maxim “mistake of law is no defence”
applies because all parties are presumed to know the law. Furthermore, a mistake in judgment is not a basis for escaping contractual liability. For example, a contract that proves to be more onerous than anticipated will not provide a basis on which to have the contract set aside.”

#45 I know I know on 05.04.17 at 7:54 pm

“It took us most of a decade to get here, and years will be required for the unwinding.” – Garth

————————————————————

Given the choice, I would chose an “unwinding”, or a crash rather than this continued nonsense. I think TO RE prices are insane. However, it’s NOT going to happen. The future is ever higher prices, with some periodic lulls. The recent stats that show foreigners are not a factor are such BS. The powers that be want us to believe that. The fact is that: foreign buyers, straw buyer, no speculator tax, massive immigration, zirp, CMHC, development red tape, etc. will all guarantee continuing higher prices. Everybody might as well accept it.

Of course when (not if) we have a financial collapse prices will reset. Only then.

#46 John on 05.04.17 at 7:56 pm

Not sure what the RE pumpers on this blog are seeing but RE is not selling and the littered GTA of for sale signs with no sold signs in what is should be the BOOM time for RE is telling the rrue story. The realtors on this blog are out of work fools.

#47 Fed-up on 05.04.17 at 7:58 pm

Apples (pre-builds) and oranges (resales). — Garth

Yes sorry, re-sales only went up over 33% in one year. Certainly hope it doesn’t take 10 years to wipe that out regardless of how the math differs on the way down (in this case a correction of 25 or 26%) or this whole waiting to buy thing for the past 10 years was a bust even with awesome 6% returns on investing and staying liquid. $30-45K per year in rent for a family home has been pretty agonizing for most. Buying in another 10 years will have cost close to $750k or more in rent for many home renters in Vancouver and the GTA from 2007 – 2027.

Renting and investing in most Canadian cities may have been a good temporary plan, but not 2 decades.

A sharp crash or 120 year life span is required for any of this to pan out for side-liners. Tough, but true.

#48 Pete from St. Cesaire on 05.04.17 at 7:58 pm

Hey Garth, concerning the legalization of pot and the IPO’s of companies who will produce the stuff: Couldn’t someone who owns stock in a marijuana company land in jail as being a drug lord if they traveled to a country where pot is illegal? Just the way the US often locks up foreigners who run on-line gambling operations out of foreign jurisdictions. They just say “too bad, you’re here now and we’ve got you”.

#49 Fed-up on 05.04.17 at 8:08 pm

#31 Kat on 05.04.17 at 7:29 pm
I could have afforded a house in my early twenties but now in my late thirties I am priced out. I should have listened to my realtor friend and purchased in 2006 but life traveling was way more fun than having responsibilities like owning a house.

—————————————————————–

Sorry to tell you this Kat as you don’t really don’t need to hear it, but a huuuuuuuge mistake and financial Waterloo type lifetime event for many in this part of the world. No one could ever have guessed in 2006 it would be this bad. Future looks pretty bleak unless you want to buy now and keep plowing every dime you earn well into your 70’s.

#50 Smoking Man on 05.04.17 at 8:12 pm

No tee shirts or books.

2017 I’ve been two weeks behind the curve on everything.

Just my two puches. I’ll probably drive up the shit truck just for drama, who knows who I’ve pissed off over the years. Telling truths to violent cultists is never a good idea. If I put a scratch on the other car my life would be over.

Who cares about the Ranger.

Looking forward to the meet up with all the dogs.
Judging by my book sales. I wouldn’t staff up to much.

#51 Mattl on 05.04.17 at 8:15 pm

I agree that the correction will take years to happen. Anyone thats sitting on the sidelines since 2010 is going to be waiting on a 20 year turn, about the time
it takes to pay off home.

Closer to 2 than 20. — Garth

#52 Ogopogo on 05.04.17 at 8:16 pm

Thrilled to see Home Capital in the gutter again today, where it belongs. HCG.TO crashed another 12% today. If we can’t see housing crash fast enough in this blighted nation at least we can take some comfort in seeing the filthy alt-lender crooks take a lethal hit in the gonads.

Schadenfreude is a dessert best served short.

#53 joe on 05.04.17 at 8:18 pm

just watched hot property on cp24. all calls were from sellers in 416 area freaking about their houses are not selling / getting multiple bids and some have no offers. mortgage dude said not to worry adjust the price and things will work out. lol
AL sainclair didn’t show up. if prices go down in
GTA some sellers will have a heart attack.

#54 TurnerNation on 05.04.17 at 8:18 pm

I will be there on the 13th.
Unless it’s thunderstorming or something.

Perhaps afterparty at SS Johnnys – JD shots, wings, etc.

…..

It is written: The meek shall inherit the Dearth (of SFH).

#55 choptstix on 05.04.17 at 8:23 pm

1/ Vancouver
Globe and mail:
”Greater Vancouver condo prices surge, but sales slow down”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/greater-vancouver-condo-prices-surge/article34877701/
———
2/”Highest priced houses in Metro Vancouver belong to the lowest income earners, study finds”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/highest-priced-houses-in-metro-vancouver-belong-to-the-lowest-income-earners-study-finds-1.4097036

#56 TLG on 05.04.17 at 8:23 pm

#46
BINGO ! Very well said.

#57 Can I come? on 05.04.17 at 8:24 pm

If ur banned from this blog can you still come for ice cream?

If you wear your orange jump suit. — Garth

#58 Boombust on 05.04.17 at 8:24 pm

#33 Rates vs. Capital

Nonsense.

Just more realtor shilling. Don’t you ever tire of it?

#59 Grantmi on 05.04.17 at 8:29 pm

#42 dakkie on 05.04.17 at 7:46 pm
Canada’s banking system may be crashing before our eyes

http://investmentwatchblog.com/canadas-banking-system-may-be-crashing-before-our-eyes/

Crap. — Garth

Not crash Garth-O! But those are pretty ugly looking charts for all those banks. Almost all of them are approaching their 200DM or have already passed them.

HCG might be the contagion!!

Nope. — Garth

#60 Cici on 05.04.17 at 8:36 pm

I’ll be in Quebec, so I can’t make it. But could someone please take a picture of Smoking Man’s footwear (I assume it’s still too early for flip-flops?). Would also love an action snap of Garth wielding the broom!

#61 Darryl on 05.04.17 at 8:36 pm

Love the Video
This week we bought in Tecumseh . $400k for a nice house on a large lot backing onto a park . 5 minute walk to a Lake St Clair park with actual sand . Needs some work but who cares . 60 to 80 k and the house will be awesome .
Sold in the Sauga for almost 4 times more late last year .
Traffic ? yah right . Rush hour there looks like 6 a.m Sunday morning in GTA.

#62 Smoking Man on 05.04.17 at 8:37 pm

#54 joe on 05.04.17 at 8:18 pm
just watched hot property on cp24. all calls were from sellers in 416 area freaking about their houses are not selling / getting multiple bids and some have no offers. mortgage dude said not to worry adjust the price and things will work out. lol
AL sainclair didn’t show up. if prices go down in
GTA some sellers will have a heart attack.
…..

Sellers are trying to get March prices. That ship sailed. Homes priced at Jan prices sell in a few days.
Bidding wars are over for now.

#63 Darryl on 05.04.17 at 8:38 pm

Where do we park on Saturday ?
Can you get that cop from the Brampton house release Garth ?

#64 Capt. Serious on 05.04.17 at 8:41 pm

@OttawaMike
Real estate declines. nope. not here. My manager lost out on a bidding war for a Westboro place that had 1 week of showings with a set date for offers. It went for $70k over asking.

Yeah, well, that’s Westboro. There is only so much property that is livable that is going to be near the LRT, near downtown, yet still near high tech wasteland and DND West. Oh, and that “beach”.
The pro move would be to be buying those beat up properties near Lebreton Flats, but not exactly a family location these days.

#65 crdt on 05.04.17 at 8:43 pm

It is always prudent not to be a chicken little. Makes us sound reasonable, mature. To me, no crash = soft landing. Not sure if a slow melt is better then a crash, like taking a band aid off, get it over with. I doubt it will be a soft landing. It is a waste of time guessing.

#66 WUL on 05.04.17 at 8:44 pm

Despite my financial ineptitude, I’ll retire earlier than Prince Philip. 95 and he hangs up the tools. Too much illiquid real estate.

#67 Wrk.dover on 05.04.17 at 8:44 pm

This tidbit was on the ZH link at #38 or so

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

Note the last entry on the bottom right about 50 sear auto centers. And then some.

#68 Cici on 05.04.17 at 8:44 pm

Smoking Man, if you really want to sell your books you should kiss Garth’s ass until you can convince him to partner up with you in a joint venture: his gift for urban poetry, keen sense of wit and steely logic, combined with your warped yet fantastical vision, just might spawn something diabolically beautiful.

#69 millmech on 05.04.17 at 8:45 pm

#33
Renting and staying on the sidelines is awesome, it allows me to grow my net worth by about $7000/mth. Why would I own a soul sucking piece of real estate that would cost me thousands a month to maintain and restrict my employment options.

#70 Funky on 05.04.17 at 8:51 pm

Garth,

Nice post regarding wealth management. The dogs may need some of those pointers.

Also, do we know what Smoking Man is smoking?

#71 Joseph R on 05.04.17 at 8:55 pm

“Significant new layoffs in Calgary and across the country at Great-West Life.”

——————————————————–

Oh Yes! Now that American companies (ConoccoPhilips, Marathon Oil) and international (Shell, Statoil) are selling off their oil sand capital, pennies on the dollar, to Cenovus and CNRL, you will begin to witness massive layoffs and bankruptcies as many small and medium-sized engineering firms will be made redundant; most, if not all, downtown Calgary engineering, HR and HSE departments and firms will merge.

Currently, with the highest unemployment rate in the country, Calgary unemployment (10%) and commercial vacancy rate (30%, without counting the Brookfield Place) is about to get a lot worse …

#72 Another Albertan on 05.04.17 at 9:03 pm

Calgary hiring anecdotes…

An old friend is the senior executive in charge of HR/personnel at a noted Alberta business institution. His organization posted a junior HR job and they received over 700 resumes. Of note, basically all were qualified for this entry-level job. Also of note, there were multiple applicants who were formerly director-level executives in the energy sector.

Buddy flew down to sit in on some of the interviews his staff was conducting, including some of the individuals mentioned above. He said the senior-level people were very blunt about their situations. Yes, they are 20+ years past the level required for this role, but severance has run out, EI has run out, and they were all politely begging for consideration. Bills and mortgages need to be paid. Some people are willing to do anything now.

I ran into another colleague on 6th Avenue at lunch today. He runs software development projects. Roles he would have traditionally struggled to fill with contractors for $100 to $125/hr are being filled easily at $50 to $60/hr. He’s even at the point where he might stop using resources in India for testing and validation because he can hire laid-off workers (who have been his customers in the past) locally. Because they know the software, they can execute the verification suites faster and more effectively. The local-overseas differential is basically becoming a wash for him.

The recurring trend is that benefits are running out for a lot of people. Many are becoming very desperate to find their next-step. We hired four new employees this week and they are all very grateful to be working. I haven’t seen such a keen nose-down/ass-up attitude in a very long time.

Everyone else’s mileage may vary.

#73 Jungle on 05.04.17 at 9:07 pm

Wow that video was awesome! Very funny some good talent went into making that!! LOL

#74 Deplorable communications on 05.04.17 at 9:09 pm

#51 Smoking Man on 05.04.17 at 8:12 pm
No tee shirts or books.

….
Damn… I was coming to get some copies for the bottom of my bird cage or backup TP for the cottage.

#75 toronto1 on 05.04.17 at 9:21 pm

#63 Smoking Man on 05.04.17 at 8:37 pm
#54 joe on 05.04.17 at 8:18 pm

interesting observations from the last two weeks:

buyers listing low and with multiple 8’s in price- open house madness on the weekends in East York and York

Houses that are not selling or getting bids are being relisted in stratosphere level.

interesting dynamic as some are listing much higher while others remain the same hoping for an offer- this will be fun to watch- see who folds first and either take the neighborhood higher or lower- sales are too low in the last two week to makes heads or tails of this

seeing some detached (not many yet) going for the same or even less then some semi’s sold for in March and April- and this is without multiple offers and a two weeks on the market.

if buyers remain on strike and listings swell, it will be a different game come sept.

wait and see game- i think the increases in march and april have amounted to buyer exhaustion in the GTA

#76 Gasbag Boomer on 05.04.17 at 9:23 pm

#75

Also I need something suitable for wrapping fish!

#77 The Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 05.04.17 at 9:25 pm

@ #65 Capt. Serious:

Same situation with Vanier-Overbrook area as Lebreton Flats, or just settle and be a ‘Bay Rat’? Thoughts?

#78 the Jaguar on 05.04.17 at 9:27 pm

Smoking Man looks like a character right out of the movie ‘Eastern Promises’. Russia, Albania, Romania…..some place where you better have eyes in the back of your head. Mercy.

Garth is a vision. Wool vest, beckoning pose, confidence fully projected. Exactly as he was the day Dorothy fell madly in love with him all those years ago. He gives me hope for a return to sanity if we would all just turn up the dial.

#79 Smoking Man on 05.04.17 at 9:28 pm

He arrives at 1:30. I’ll be sweeping-Garth

I hope your tills are sweeping up too. You give us amazing advice. For free.. moderate comments in the middle of the night. Put up with late night drunken lunatics. Totaly dedicated to helping humanoids. Nictonites not so much. We don’t need help anyway.

You’re pretend bad ass shtick, cowboy boots and Harleys. Mind you, you stood up to Harpo on principle. Punted to the curb. Survived.

You’re a softy and everyone that meets you knows it.

#80 Leo Trollstoy on 05.04.17 at 9:32 pm

Toronto home prices continue to increase on identical units. BoC says the increase is unsustainable. Duh

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1802PZ

#81 Gasbag Boomer on 05.04.17 at 9:39 pm

I will try to make it and bring a broom.

#82 Con Fuscious on 05.04.17 at 9:47 pm

Just yesterday I was thinking where might Trump go abroad and be well received? Didn’t have to wait long for the answer. Saudi Arabia, of course.. like the president before him, he has a friend there..maybe the only one.

#83 Mark on 05.04.17 at 9:48 pm

“I ran into another colleague on 6th Avenue at lunch today. He runs software development projects. Roles he would have traditionally struggled to fill with contractors for $100 to $125/hr are being filled easily at $50 to $60/hr.”

Doesn’t sound like your colleague is too competent at the whole IT staffing thing. In 2011 or so, I received numbers from a major recruiting firm in Alberta that indicated they could only get interviews for around 14% of registered IT job seeker base. Meaning that had your colleague just picked up the phone and called this firm, he likely wouldn’t have needed to even pay more than $50-$60/hour to fill those positions at the peak.

http://imgur.com/a/akGyN

Of course its probably weakened considerably since then keeping in line with the comatose nature of Canada’s IT sector and the continued overproduction of talent.

#84 Cabbagetown Carly on 05.04.17 at 9:48 pm

Just to clarify for all the blogdogs, Garth:

On the 13th, priority parking at Belfountain will be reserved for femanazis, libtards and SJWs only.

If you are a deplorable white male, please park your car in Guelph and take transit. Leave a couple hours early to manage this minor inconvenience

The menu will feature lactose-free, gluten-free vegan ice cream substitutes only. No animal products.

Use gender-neutral pronouns only when ordering your food and speaking to each other or face removal from
the premises.

The two washrooms on site will be both dedicated for women. Men may eliminate across the street in the trees, in each other’s vehicles or down the road at the Shell station.

#85 Con Fuscious on 05.04.17 at 9:52 pm

#54 joe Hot Prop callers (sellers) were NOT from 416 area, not one.. I’ve heard Newmarket, Uxbrige something like that, didn’t watch too closely, but surely they were not in the 416.

#86 Smoking Man on 05.04.17 at 9:53 pm

#69 Cici on 05.04.17 at 8:44 pm
Smoking Man, if you really want to sell your books you should kiss Garth’s ass until you can convince him to partner up with you in a joint venture: his gift for urban poetry, keen sense of wit and steely logic, combined with your warped yet fantastical vision, just might spawn something diabolically beautiful.

Kissing ass is not how real men become buddies.

Dont know shit about sis gender and all that wacked out mind f-ing shit out there. Real men trade insults. Throw punches.

That’s how good friendship are made from my real life experience. Don’t trust your text book is all I’m saying.

#87 cramar on 05.04.17 at 10:01 pm

The talk is about dogs, cars, kids, bikes, eats and fun, instead of ETFs and basis points.

What!? Nobody talks about RE? I thought that this was the #1 conversation amongst Canadians! Perhaps Belfountain really is in another world.

It’s weird, but I relish my sweeping hours.

Not weird, its a Zen thing. Sweep left. Sweep right. Sweep left. . . .

—–

If you bring Bandit, Smokey and The Bandit will be the star attractions. I’d love meeting Bandit, but alas time is valuable and I have a higher calling.

#88 cramar on 05.04.17 at 10:04 pm

#62 Darryl on 05.04.17 at 8:36 pm

Love the Video
This week we bought in Tecumseh . $400k for a nice house on a large lot backing onto a park . 5 minute walk to a Lake St Clair park with actual sand . Needs some work but who cares . 60 to 80 k and the house will be awesome .
Sold in the Sauga for almost 4 times more late last year .
Traffic ? yah right . Rush hour there looks like 6 a.m Sunday morning in GTA.

———-

Congratulation on your wise choice. But I dunno Darryl, I avoid Windsor rush-hour traffic. It’s too much for me!

#89 Tony on 05.04.17 at 10:12 pm

Re: #43 Pete from St. Cesaire on 05.04.17 at 7:50 pm

He also forgot when home prices fall rents fall. Calgary and Edmonton have seen about a 20 percent fall in monthly residential rent prices since the end of 2014.

#90 maka on 05.04.17 at 10:14 pm

Canadian banks are desperately looking for liquidity. Subprime lenders are bleeding.

1. Home Capital Group (HCG)- 70% down so far – $2B lifeline @ 22%. May survive few more months.

2. Equitable Group Inc. (EQB.TO) – 23% down since April 25, 2017. And their Saving Plus account interest rate increased to 2.3%. Major banks gave them another $2B lifeline.
3. Callidus Capital Corp (CBL) – Down 13% today
4. PC Financial increased its TFSA interest rate to 2.5% till August 31st. Need more saving??? How do they make money from mortgage business?

Interesting time ahead. Talking about domino effect! What if wealthy boomer lose faith in banks? Then we have to talk about 20-year recession, not 30% crash.

#91 Hotdogs from Heaven on 05.04.17 at 10:14 pm

Did nobody see the Statscan headlines yesterday?

Canadians over 65 are now more numerous than kids 16 and under and will be a faster growing population too, for the next decade.

Consider that the oldest baby boomers are now hitting 75, and this countries life expectancy is a little over 80 years. All those houses and condos currently occupied by them will be coming on the market in the next few years in even larger numbers. The LONG term trend will see all Canadian housing markets go into a long funk, including the GTA.

It doesn’t have the drama of the stories that get published here, but over the long run the trend is definitely NOT for housing prices to keep going up.

#92 Home Coming Weekend! on 05.04.17 at 10:16 pm

Good lord! ….well Garth, the chickens are finally coming home to roost! lollll

I’m sure your wife had warned you not to develop an online relationship with the crew of weirdos and wack-jobs that gravitate towards your words….and now they’re all coming over for dinner! This I gotta see lolll

I’ve been waiting years for an occasion to wear a g-string I got as a gag gift…and a cut-off t-shift that exposes my early-stage beer belly. All I need to do is dig out my summer flip-flops and I’m good to go!

05-13 is the new 4-20 folks! : )

#93 MF on 05.04.17 at 10:18 pm

Would like to go to the meet up on the 13th and add some moist millennial facial scruff with firm fitting plaid..but I will be busy working my second job. Working the second job to be able to buy a million dollar GTA crack shack (not serious)

………………

(semi-serious)

#94 Stock Picker on 05.04.17 at 10:18 pm

Garth, I’ve written and published seven novels, a series of text books based on our development of the computer science curriculum at a major Canadian university and an Uber successful handbook on parenting in Canada for New Canadian families. Can I send some promotional material out to your store and have you schilling for me over the summer? I can’t come….I deep into working on my tan.

#95 Mark on 05.04.17 at 10:19 pm

TREB comes clean about the influence of the “foreign” buyer:

http://www.trebhome.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2017/nr_market_watch_0417.htm

Between 2008 and April 2017, the average share of foreign buyers in the GGH was 2.3 per cent. The share was 2.2 per cent in 2016 and 2.6 per cent for the January through April period in 2017. The majority of foreign buyers – 87 to 90+ per cent – purchased their home as a place to live: 91.5 per cent in 2016 and 88 per cent January through April in 2017.”

So much for the idea that its “Chinese” or even “foreign” money (Persians, Soviets, etc. have been blamed over the years) involved here. I’ve criticized TREB in the past, especially for not being more forthright on the role of the changing sales mix in quoted ‘headline’ prices, but they’ve presented some pretty convincing numbers to quash the whole concept that foreigners are meaningfully involved with, or responsible for occurrences in the GTA RE marketplace.

#96 Mark on 05.04.17 at 10:20 pm

“Canadian banks are desperately looking for liquidity. Subprime lenders are bleeding.”

Yup. If this continues much longer, the Bank of Canada will have to act. My New Years’ prediction of rate cuts this year is looking more and more spot on as the days go by!

#97 American short who took dowm HGC and EQB has another Canadian short on 05.04.17 at 10:21 pm

The house of cards is going to come crashing down. Sellers can not find buyers and wont find buyers since without mortgage fraud NO ONE can nuy.say good night the housing bubble will not melt but crash

#98 The Great Gazoo on 05.04.17 at 10:24 pm

Doug Porter from BMO thinks that 5% foreign buyers is enough to have a “meaningful impact on prices”, see excerpt from the Globe below.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/

TREB released a survey of GTA realtors in late January, showing they estimated 5 per cent of deals came from foreign buyers. Mr. Porter said that number is high enough to have a meaningful impact on pricing.

“Even at 5 per cent, I think that is a very significant number,” he said. “In what is an incredibly tight market, I think 5 per cent is enough to drive a market.”

#99 Rates vs Capital on 05.04.17 at 10:24 pm

#59 Boombust on 05.04.17 at 8:24 pm
#33 Rates vs. Capital

Nonsense.

Just more realtor shilling. Don’t you ever tire of it?

——-

Why would I get tired of telling the truth?

You must be triggered now…

#100 Tony on 05.04.17 at 10:27 pm

Re: #46 I know I know on 05.04.17 at 7:54 pm

When the yuan fall far enough no more foreign money will come into Canadian real estate. Watch for Trump to hit China with tariffs. That will put an end to foreign money coming into Canadian real estate.

#101 Leo Trollstoy on 05.04.17 at 10:29 pm

The problem with Canada is that there are too many tech jobs going unfilled due to lack of quality candidates. We need more people interested in these well paid jobs!

http://www.itworldcanada.com/article/canada-will-need-216000-tech-positions-filled-in-these-5-key-sectors-by-2021/392413

#102 Raj on 05.04.17 at 10:30 pm

#91 maka,
Good observation.Even TD has increased interest rates on HISA.There is definitely something going on with the liquidity.

#103 American short who took dowm HGC and EQB has another Canadian Company to short on 05.04.17 at 10:30 pm

Could PC financial be next? He said was originally going to tweet it but now has decided to put out a 30-40 page power point. (Seems our RE pumping media pissed him off) I will short and buy puts like crazy. The housing ponzi is toast.
Everyday you wait will cost you money. Americans hate smug arrogant Canadian realtors and other RE shills. They will send a financial lesson Canada’s way.

#104 paulo on 05.04.17 at 10:31 pm

Well Garth you are richer than you think,its all about having a balanced portfolio Financially. and balance in life, you cant’t take it with you,but can have the benefit of living life in balance including “smokie” dudes,a bunch of blog dogs whom love the work you do.and the time to do the things that give you peace and time to reflect on life .
cumulative value: priceless

#105 WUL on 05.04.17 at 10:32 pm

Re: May 9 Dipper Gub’t Elected in BC

Curiously, that is the 25th anniversary of the Westray Mine disaster in Nova Scotia.

This will be a fun evening for Cheesehead politics watchers.

#106 Unhinged Trader on 05.04.17 at 10:34 pm

I’m bringing my cat on the 13th.

I expect proper facilities and a cat-friendly atmosphere from the Belfountain staff .

#107 Doug in London on 05.04.17 at 10:36 pm

@Darryl, post #62:
Good move Darryl! It’s good to see some people here have some common sense and know a good thing when they see one. In Tecumseh, you’re in the right place to try out flyboarding this summer, it’s great fun!

@cramar, post #89:
Windsor rush hour traffic? I remember some people, who obviously don’t travel much, complaining about the rush hour traffic on Riverside Drive in Timmins!

#108 B. Withue on 05.04.17 at 10:50 pm

All I can say is be careful today, May the 4th.
B. Withue

#109 MSM-Free Zone on 05.04.17 at 10:51 pm

#15 conan on 05.04.17 at 7:03 pm
What are your top selling ice cream flavors Garth? Did Tiger tail end up being a good seller?
_________________________

I was there for opening day this spring. No tiger tail ice cream. I was crushed. Then again, the ladies came out back with doggie treats for my Samoyed so that kind of made up for it.

Better be some large tubs of Tiger Tail on the 13th. Otherwise, I have friends in low places.

#110 Ret on 05.04.17 at 11:00 pm

Will there be any overflow parking? Any three legged races or activities? Free waffle cone upgrades?

Is this the First Annual Blog Dogapulusa? if so, will photo ops be available?

Just so I don’t upset the local yokels, is it Bell-Fountain or Belle-Fountaine?

#111 Leebow on 05.04.17 at 11:06 pm

Oh no. Garth yielded to the Smoking Man’s charms.

May be a great day to stop there for an ice cream and then continue north east and visit kids’ cousins.

That whole HCG panic thing. There will be a suckers rally. And why does it matter if one can’t afford at 1.5 or at 1.2. Practically, it’s same.

#112 Boombust on 05.04.17 at 11:11 pm

#100 Rates vs Capital

Nice try, realtor.

#113 Spectacle on 05.04.17 at 11:13 pm

Regarding ::
“#35 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.04.17 at 7:39 pm
@#26 Rainclouds
“I am enduring U2 “practicing” at provincially owned BC Place for the next 10 friggin days….”
*******

Are ya braggin or complainin? :)

I was wondering if it was annoying the “peeps” around BC Place.
The price of livin in dwntwn Van I guess.

It could be worse….I hear the “Beebs” wants to practice at BC Place…..”-

—————–Hey Crowded Elevator….
I laugh my ass off to your comments on here, thank you. Wife and I have a strange new appreciation for the Beens! Still can’t explain it. But I did attend a U2 concert once, was a piece of sh.. Event. Lucky bunch of bar band Come Agenda-21-30 shill/crap now. Waste of an evening. Bill Gates was there for his birthday. Stupidity.

Keep up the good commentary

#114 Pulp Faction on 05.04.17 at 11:14 pm

Looking good, both of you.
I have been a fallen millionaire, never played at Smoky’s level, but he’s an inspiration to me just the same. Money isn’t everything.

#115 neo on 05.04.17 at 11:16 pm

#63 Smoking Man on 05.04.17 at 8:37 pm
#54 joe on 05.04.17 at 8:18 pm
just watched hot property on cp24. all calls were from sellers in 416 area freaking about their houses are not selling / getting multiple bids and some have no offers. mortgage dude said not to worry adjust the price and things will work out. lol
AL sainclair didn’t show up. if prices go down in
GTA some sellers will have a heart attack.
…..

Sellers are trying to get March prices. That ship sailed. Homes priced at Jan prices sell in a few days.
Bidding wars are over for now.

********************************************

Smoking Man,

So what happens when HCG actually goes bankrupt and that becomes big news. Right now, there is a lot of the herd that have no idea what is going on. I know you said this will turn around in 3 months. HCG won’t last that long at their current burn rate with GIC’s all starting to come due as well. The psychological impact of a subprime lender going under will spook the herd for sure.

#116 Piet on 05.04.17 at 11:19 pm

Walmart flip flops.

A few years ago Walmart sold a really excellent type of flip flop that has a step-in foot cover that is velcro-adjustable. The fit of these flip flops is truly universal, and definitely superior to the chafing-prone, between-the-toe type of flip flop Smokey is wearing in the picture. Recognizing the value of those excellent flip flops, I immediately bought three pairs. Unfortunately they’re showing their age now, and Walmart no longer stocks them.

Interesting how at some point a mundane thing such as well-fitting flip flops can seem as important as the need for portfolio-balancing. By the way, those flip flops are great for tasks such as sweeping, which is always more fun than vacuuming.

#117 WUL on 05.04.17 at 11:40 pm

International Harvester D9 Dude:

You have things figured out and I am a convert. Found a dude here in Fort Mac whose hobby and avocation is hiking through the local golf courses finding, cleaning and selling wayward and unruly balls. Picked up 7 dozen Titleist Pro V1s for $70. Pristine. Savings of ~$240 or so and NO TAX. Beauty.

The ones emblazoned with corporate logos (Nexen, CNOOC, Suncor etc.) from the booze filled tourneys are keepers.

Thanks.

#118 oil on 05.04.17 at 11:42 pm

in free fall, now below $44

#119 JR on 05.04.17 at 11:59 pm

Wish I could attend the meeting Smoking Man.

Now that your going to sell out of the Long Branch, why don’t you move out west.

Out west, hats are white, boots are brown.
Young chaps still say yes sir, yes ma’am.
Men pay the tab, and don’t take no crap!

#120 yorkville renter on 05.05.17 at 12:28 am

Truly being grateful is one of the greatest gifts and most prized possessions in life.

#121 History of mortgage fraud on 05.05.17 at 12:40 am

Garth is it true that loans insured by CMHC/government/taxpayer are deemed in arrears after a whopping 365 day? That can’t be right?

https://twitter.com/LandlordRescue/status/860315585980375042

#122 Solomon Grundy on 05.05.17 at 1:01 am

#104 American short who took dowm HGC and EQB has another Canadian Company to short

PC Financial is just rebranded CIBC, so if CIBC is having liquidity problems…that would be a Lehman Bros moment for Canada, to say the least

#123 History of mortgage fraud on 05.05.17 at 1:18 am

Enjoy the read

http://landlordrescue.ca/the-truth-about-current-vacancy-rates/

#124 EQ depositor on 05.05.17 at 1:24 am

Tomorrow’s column…..why did EQ Bank just increase their interest rate today to 2.3% from 2%. Desperate move or smart move to prevent any need to access that $2 B line of credit with the big banks?

#125 Original dave on 05.05.17 at 1:28 am

Sorry, I just dont think that a decline in prices can be orderly. There’s just too many elements that hurt the real estate market.

-170% debt to income
– aging boomers
– 20% of jobs tied to real estate
– 70% of people own homes
– probably a 15 year bull market so far
– new provincial rules
– historically low interest rate
– prices going parabolic

That’s just…..a lot.

I’m not the smartest of guys but Home cap and eqb might be the elephants in the room. I dont know how their weakness changes credit markets but I do know that tighter credit hurt real estate in 2008/2009. If banks across the board become tighter with lending, less construction etc and the industry gets hurt. That’s 20% of our jobs. It’s just a lot for any asset to withstand

#126 Original dave on 05.05.17 at 1:30 am

Sorry, last point. My concern is with our currency at this point. Usually not a doomer but…

#127 Who will be first? on 05.05.17 at 1:47 am

I wonder who will arrive First at Blog Dogapalooza? Jimmy or Joseph? Place your bets…..

#128 Rates vs Capital on 05.05.17 at 1:55 am

#113 Boombust

I know you guys get triggered when faced with the truth and differing opinions, but the knee jerk resort to calling those with divergent views ‘realtor’ really is beneath you.

Personally, I could never stomach being a house salesman who helps over leverage hapless twits into mortgage debt and who helps sell this country out to foreign capital.

Maybe I should call you the realtor for denying the influence of foreign capital – which is exactly what TREB and the GVREB do, right?

#129 Jane24 on 05.05.17 at 1:57 am

Well the fat lady is now singing. RE Market had toppled.

Canada’s housing and mortgage woes feature on both Bloomberg’s European feed and the BBC Business pages. This is BIG news because normally you hear absolutely nothing about Canada on either. We don’t exist with the big boys.

#130 Freedom First on 05.05.17 at 4:03 am

Live in Ab. so I won’t make it on the 13th, though I would definitely be going for some ice cream and to see everyone in person if I lived closer. I would like that.

Keep in mind no one would know who I am of course.

Too many people know I am the guy who has his girlfriends over to his place only in the afternoons when they are fresh and so that I don’t have to wake up to them.

Evenings are for when I am at their place.

Not everyone thinks I am normal. Even though I always practice monogamy with every present girlfriend.

Freedom First
Master of Freedomonics

#131 Dave from Kincardine on 05.05.17 at 6:06 am

Retail ice cream shop in the country. Just when retail is getting crushed. Interesting. And you might just pull it off Garthy. Also get your sorry Arse out of pretentious TO and give advise from your store upstairs. Paradise is staring you in the face. Big smile and clear running water just a skip away. haha.

#132 Wrk.dover on 05.05.17 at 6:46 am

Ice cream is not my thing. In fact the cone I bought priced by the weighed gram in Woodstock was for my mother. I just politely watched her enjoy it, while I enjoyed not eating any at all.

I’m holding out for the lobster social on the Lunenburg patio with a view, when Smoking Man invents that idea.

#133 Wrk.dover on 05.05.17 at 6:49 am

#131 Dave from Kincardine on 05.05.17 at 6:06 am
Retail ice cream shop in the country. Just when retail is getting crushed. Interesting. And you might just pull it off Garthy. Also get your sorry Arse out of pretentious TO and give advise from your store upstairs. Paradise is staring you in the face. Big smile and clear running water just a skip away. haha.

————————————————

Warren Buffet operates from a furniture store in Omaha, so this idea is smarter than it is supposed to be!

#134 Victor V on 05.05.17 at 7:20 am

Canada’s Mortgage Rates Forecast To Hit Bubble-Bursting Territory

http://m.huffpost.com/ca/entry/16409864?

#135 Grey Dog on 05.05.17 at 7:28 am

111 Ret
It’s Bell-fountain like water fountain to the locals, I was at an event in Uville when some guy said he was from Belle-Fontaine, first time I had ever heard it referred to as that, he definitely was NOT a local, although one would think after living there for a few years, someone would have corrected him.

I’ll be there with my Grey Dog Schnauzer May 13.

#136 neo on 05.05.17 at 7:42 am

#123 Solomon Grundy on 05.05.17 at 1:01 am
#104 American short who took dowm HGC and EQB has another Canadian Company to short

PC Financial is just rebranded CIBC, so if CIBC is having liquidity problems…that would be a Lehman Bros moment for Canada, to say the least

*******************************************

CIBC is the weakest of the Big 5 and have the highest exposure to Canadian Real Estate. So they would be the first bank to show effects of the slowdown. That said, IF they do show signs of cracking we will have a much bigger problem that just housing. We would be entering systemic risk. I don’t think that’s where we are. The money from alt lenders is just moving to the Big 5n hence the liquidity issues are in the shadow banking sector right now being “contained”.

#137 neo on 05.05.17 at 7:44 am

#124 EQ depositor on 05.05.17 at 1:24 am
Tomorrow’s column…..why did EQ Bank just increase their interest rate today to 2.3% from 2%. Desperate move or smart move to prevent any need to access that $2 B line of credit with the big banks?

********************************************

Both. They have been bleeding deposits for over a week now. They are just trying to stop the bleeding.

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.17 at 8:08 am

Well well.
Another day another drop at Home Capital Group (HGC)
One wonders if the pensioners at HOOP are sharpening the pikes for Jim Keohane’s head or the bobblehead dolls on the board that went along with that $2 billion dollar loan……

http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN1802IF-OCATP

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.17 at 8:15 am

@#58 Can I come?
“If ur banned from this blog can you still come for ice cream?”
******

Just leave the old doberman at home.
He poops everywhere.

#140 Lisa on 05.05.17 at 8:17 am

Good luck with the store Garth. I grew up in Belfountain in the 70’s and the store hasn’t changed much in 40 years. I’m sure 70% of your revenue will happen from July to October serving the weekend warriors coming for Sunday drives and to “see the fall colours”. There was a huge issue with bikers there once upon a time, the previous owner of the store hated them using all the parking but not buying anything at the store. We locals hated them for clogging up the roads at half the speed limit and all the noise pollution from their Harleys.

#141 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.17 at 8:35 am

Speaking of dogs…..Will HCG even be around by the May 13 Dogapalooza?
Will Home Capital Group stock melt faster than an ice cream cone in August on the Belfountain patio?

Only the next few trading days will tell.

#142 cramar on 05.05.17 at 8:45 am

#108 Doug in London on 05.04.17 at 10:36 pm

@cramar, post #89:
Windsor rush hour traffic? I remember some people, who obviously don’t travel much, complaining about the rush hour traffic on Riverside Drive in Timmins!

——————

Yeah! I’m getting annoyed at “rush-hour” in Leamington! (Happens twice in the afternoon). Yesterday I had to wait a whole minute to make a left turn. That is 55 seconds too much for me. Spent the whole time cussing the traffic. Ironically 10 minutes later you ask, “Where did all the cars go?”

Have to make three trips to the GTA soon. That should put everything in perspective.

============

Re. The 13th. I can see some dawg arriving at the crack of dawn and yelling out, “FIRST!” Then he finds out eight people were camping out ahead of him.

#143 Open Your Eyes on 05.05.17 at 9:03 am

How Western Governments will steal your Land

So far playing out perfectly…..

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php/commentary/international-commentary/26641-how-western-governments-will-steal-your-land-part-i

#144 down and out on 05.05.17 at 9:07 am

May 13th ,Park car ,voice from trees across from Garth’s store, PSST, Hey buddy, want some sprinklers for that ice cream and are you looking to buy a house ,here’s my card. Garth sees the realtor lurking in the shrubby and we soon find out why Garth carries the broom ,viciously sweeping the Re Max agents out of the shadows and Bandit giving chase .Be gone, he cries the soon our hero once again quietly sweeps the patio but one eye scanning the forest protecting his flock with the mighty Bandit ready at his side. I breath a sigh of relief ,that was close encounter that even gave Smoking man a pause.

#145 AK on 05.05.17 at 9:22 am

#103 Raj on 05.04.17 at 10:30 pm
#91 maka,
“Good observation.Even TD has increased interest rates on HISA.There is definitely something going on with the liquidity.”
——————————————————————-
Of course there will be liquidity issues.
Smart Investors have realized that Canada is no longer a great place to Invest.
Once the French elections are finalized this Sunday, money will start pouring into Europe.
If Canada wants to attract Investment capital, they will need to raise rates.

#146 FLHTK on 05.05.17 at 9:36 am

#140 Lisa on 05.05.17 at 8:17 am
Good luck with the store Garth. I grew up in Belfountain in the 70’s and the store hasn’t changed much in 40 years. I’m sure 70% of your revenue will happen from July to October serving the weekend warriors coming for Sunday drives and to “see the fall colours”. There was a huge issue with bikers there once upon a time, the previous owner of the store hated them using all the parking but not buying anything at the store. We locals hated them for clogging up the roads at half the speed limit and all the noise pollution from their Harleys.

If the weather is nice I will be riding my Harley….I’ll be sure to revvvv it up real loud so everyone knows it’s me and to create lots of noise pollution that Lisa hates!!! haha

#147 Alistair McLaughlin on 05.05.17 at 9:39 am

OttawaMike’s exaggerations about the Ottawa housing market can be ignored. Yes, things have really heated up here this spring, and houses are moving more quickly than I’ve seen since 2010, and possibly 2007, but 10%-15% increases? Nope. Note even YoY. More like 5% YoY. And bidding wars? Maybe in trendy Westboro but nowhere else.

#148 jess on 05.05.17 at 9:47 am

“legacy matter”

Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN.S) paid $400 million to settle claims that the Swiss bank sold toxic mortgage securities that contributed to the demise of three federal credit unions, a U.S. regulator said on Wednesday.

=====================
Banks | Wed May 3, 2017 | 3:16pm EDT
Credit Suisse pays $400 million over toxic mortgages, failed U.S. credit unions
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-credit-suisse-gp-creditunions-idUSKBN17Z2CQ

==================
statements of facts
Wednesday, January 18, 2017

“In another instance, a Credit Suisse senior trader commented in 2007 that “‘we have almost $2.5B of conduit garbage to still distribute.’”
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/credit-suisse-agrees-pay-528-billion-connection-its-sale-residential-mortgage-backed

#149 Eurovision on 05.05.17 at 9:48 am

Poor fools buying HCG today, ultra stupid.

#150 IHCTD9 on 05.05.17 at 9:57 am

#87 Smoking Man on 05.04.17 at 9:53 pm

Real men trade insults. Throw punches.

That’s how good friendship are made from my real life experience.
______________________________________

Now that’s old school! Add to that crude practical jokes, like sneaking a fresh pair of buck balls into your pal’s lunch box at work, and telling everyone except him. That’s friends for life.

#151 Hollywood Jack on 05.05.17 at 10:01 am

I share your sentiment Garth, I coach kids sport and the value of something isn’t always measured in money.

However, our “time” on this plant is greatly enhanced when you have enough money to be truly free. Lets no kid ourselves money touches almost every aspect of life.

Imagine the improvement in quality of life of the average joe if he had a decent house and not strapped to the ball and chain called a mortgage. The peace of mind alone would improve all areas of health instantly.

#152 conan on 05.05.17 at 10:01 am

So I take it everyone is wearing flip flops to this meeting?

I will alert the media. They will want some video of Garth scooping ice cream, like a rookie.

#153 Stan Broock on 05.05.17 at 10:05 am

Is there a conference call number (video, audio) for the event (an expat here)? When would it start?

#154 Grantmi on 05.05.17 at 10:11 am

Holy crap….

Canada added 3,200 jobs during the month, Statistics Canada reported in Ottawa, less than the 10,000 employment gain forecast by economists. The pace of annual wage rate increases fell to 0.7 per cent in April, the lowest in records dating back to the late 1990s.

Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 6.5 per cent, the lowest since October 2008, but this reflects the departure of 45,500 people from the labor force. About half of those were youth, meaning many young people looking for work have stopped looking.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canadas-unemployment-rate-falls-to-65-per-cent-lowest-since-2008/article34905456/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&

#155 Leo Trollstoy on 05.05.17 at 10:18 am

USA! USA! USA!

Booooooooooming!

http://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-report-april-2017-5

#156 Ret on 05.05.17 at 10:23 am

#91 PC Financial -2.5% until Aug. 31.

It is a teaser rate to get you in the door. PC does it 2x a year.

#157 AK on 05.05.17 at 10:24 am

“He spent $1.79”
——————————————————————–

What did he get for $1.79 ?

#158 Rainclouds on 05.05.17 at 10:26 am

#35 definitely complaining!

Lots of concerts at BC Place but they leave after a night or two, no biggie.

Several more days/nights Listening to the nasal droning of a faded rock star Caterwauling “with or without you” for the umpteenth time fleecing nostalgic old white people with O musical taste revisiting the 80’s when they had dreams, hair, and a BMI less than 40.

Meanwhile, cutting through the cacophony, I am concentrating hard on TRYING to match visually VS what Bob Cole is actually calling in his demented personal hockey space the addled old Newfy resides in.Then Cherry comes on………….

Been a bad week in retirement land. Feeling Triggered….

#159 westcdn on 05.05.17 at 10:35 am

I see my Veresen preferreds didn’t do much over the company “buyout”. It is what I expected and if proof that they are debt obligations of the corporation. As such, preferred are properly part of your fixed portion of your portfolio through they pay eligible tax credit dividends rather than interest. Preferreds are more risky than bonds in the event of a corporate failure – so choose your poison carefully.

Just as a test, I bought some American preferreds through my non-registered account to see how my bank would treat the transaction. I was expecting some exchange rate charges but none so far. The saga continues…

#160 Lee on 05.05.17 at 10:53 am

Here is what the jobs reports really say for those who care to read them thoroughly:

Canada

Lost 31,000 full time jobs and added about 34,000 part time jobs.

All job gains were self-employed and public sector (probably public works summer students).

USA

Most gains were in minimum wage jobs.

Great way to start a family.

Unless you inherit big………….

#161 Goober on 05.05.17 at 11:01 am

The family and I would love to join the blog dawgs for a scoop (or two) and some sprinkles on the 13th. However, the 26-hour drive from Manitoba to Belfountain means that the per unit cost of each cone would be well into prohibitive territory for my budget.

The only question I have for the group get together – does Smoking Man speak like he types?

#162 NoName on 05.05.17 at 11:02 am

#130 Freedom First on 05.05.17 at 4:03 am

Not everyone thinks I am normal.

—-
no agents peddlers and solicitors, sign is going down.
Not everyone thinks I am normal, sign, is replacing it.

Thanks FF

#163 Mark on 05.05.17 at 11:16 am

“is it true that loans insured by CMHC/government/taxpayer are deemed in arrears after a whopping 365 day? That can’t be right?”

That’s an accounting standard that the banks use. However, no bank would rationally allow a CMHC insured subprime loan to sit on their books that long in default before making a CMHC subprime mortgage insurance claim and undertaking the process of disposing of the property. So basically instances of distress in CMHC insured subprime mortgages never really do show up at the banks, and rightly so as the paper allegedly is being bought and sold for not that many basis points above government bonds.

The spreads will explode if Justin or buddies start chattering about CMHC ‘reform’. But could they be so stupid at this point?

#164 IHCTD9 on 05.05.17 at 11:17 am

#118 WUL on 05.04.17 at 11:40 pm
International Harvester D9 Dude:

You have things figured out and I am a convert. Found a dude here in Fort Mac whose hobby and avocation is hiking through the local golf courses finding, cleaning and selling wayward and unruly balls. Picked up 7 dozen Titleist Pro V1s for $70. Pristine. Savings of ~$240 or so and NO TAX. Beauty.

The ones emblazoned with corporate logos (Nexen, CNOOC, Suncor etc.) from the booze filled tourneys are keepers.

Thanks.
____________________________________________

That is a sweet deal – probably only hit once, your pal might even find some clubs out there too – depending on how many beers went down before tee of time :).

Even better is taking your fee from Notley in the form of tax free good used product, while enabling a hobby, and cleaning out the woods :).

#165 Cici on 05.05.17 at 11:25 am

#87 Smoking Man

Don’t worry…if I ever have the pleasure of meeting you, I’ll throw you a REALLY GOOD punch (Mama said knock you out!)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vimZj8HW0Kg

#166 Grantmi on 05.05.17 at 11:27 am

#160 Lee on 05.05.17 at 10:53 am

Here is what the jobs reports really say for those who care to read them thoroughly:

Canada

Lost 31,000 full time jobs and added about 34,000 part time jobs.

All job gains were <b.self-employed and public sector (probably public works summer students).

Lee! I was just going to add that as well. And ANY of us who’ve started a self-employment job… ALL KNOW… you’re sucking $$$ out of your savings just to get the new company or job going.

These are TERRIBLE numbers. Thanks TJ… way to create jobs for Canadians!! Maybe less Selfies and more talking to business across Canada.

#167 Wrk.dover on 05.05.17 at 11:28 am

#146 FLHTK on 05.05.17 at 9:36 am

If the weather is nice I will be riding my Harley….I’ll be sure to revvvv it up real loud so everyone knows it’s me and to create lots of noise pollution that Lisa hates!!! haha

———————————————

While awaiting my vehicle to pass the bi-yearly MVI yesterday, a Harley guy came in the station to pay for his gas wearing a skid lid and no kidding, he had ear plugs ! Manly, man !

#168 For those about to flop... on 05.05.17 at 11:31 am

I guess if I left home now loaded up in my 1989 Ford Getaway Van I could make it to the store on time.

To make up some of the gas money I would probably have to sell some of that 77% Bombay Gin along the way or just use it as a substitute and dump it in the gas tank and upon arrival charge any of my blog buddies with a weak bladder $5 to use the washroom in my van…

M42BC

#169 Concessionman on 05.05.17 at 11:46 am

Preferred Parking for Harley’s I assume?

#170 maka on 05.05.17 at 11:47 am

#149 Eurovision
Poor fools buying HCG today, ultra stupid.

May be short covering…

#171 traderJim on 05.05.17 at 11:56 am

Oil down massively yesterday and last night, June rate hike odds now above 90%, housing bubble letting off steam, yet the loonie rises today.

Hmmmm. Wonder what’s going on?

Loonie still the worst performing major currency so far this year, and I don’t see that changing. Sticking with my short.

See you at 69 cents. Then I will cover.

#172 NoName on 05.05.17 at 12:03 pm

@traktor

“Add to that crude practical jokes”

—–

I guess, It’s all fun and games until someone looses an eye, is no stranger to you.

#173 traderJim on 05.05.17 at 12:08 pm

#118 WUL

I don’t golf but wondering how bad a golfer do you need to be to need 7 dozen golf balls?

Is that a supply for 1 round or 1 lifetime?

#174 Rexx Rock on 05.05.17 at 12:25 pm

Yes,it will be a slow grind for housing prices.All we have to look at is Japan.Polaz has basically decided to follow the central bank of Japan.This means devalution of our currency,higher inflation and slower job growth.

#175 traderJim on 05.05.17 at 12:36 pm

#174 Rexx Rock

Canada is just one of many nations now going down the Japan road.

Artificially low rates, massive government spending, taxing and debt.

Bail out anything that might cause ‘instability’.

Recipe for decades of slow to no growth.

Politicians, Central Bankers and a lot of the general public prefer band aids to fixing the real, underlying problems, as that would involve work and some hardship.

#176 For those about to flop... on 05.05.17 at 1:03 pm

I guess to make the trip more economical I could ask Crowdie to ride shotgun and any excess gas he has built up could be put to good use.

Hope the weather is alright as I will probably have to have the windows rolled down the whole way.

According to Garth,at least one of my blog buddies is keen to meet up with me but I’m not sure if this person has a name or no name…

M42BC

#177 jess on 05.05.17 at 1:06 pm

interest rate sensitivity

Joshua Robertson

Tuesday 2 May 2017 21.12 BST
Last modified on Wednesday 3 May 2017 01.20 BST

The burden of housing costs is biting even in Australia’s wealthiest suburbs as an unprecedented one in four households nationally face mortgage stress, according to the latest in a 15-year series of analyses

#178 IHCTD9 on 05.05.17 at 1:32 pm

#151 Hollywood Jack on 05.05.17 at 10:01 am

…Imagine the improvement in quality of life of the average joe if he had a decent house and not strapped to the ball and chain called a mortgage. The peace of mind alone would improve all areas of health instantly.
_________________

Indeed, life is great after the big financial obligations are covered: Mortgage, Investments, Education. Crap economies and job instability while not fun, are no longer a potential pit of doom. Suddenly you’ve got cash flow with no landing pad, you can just blow it on a toy and pay cash. Splurging a bit on the kids. Fill your tax free savings accounts and your RRSP’s – then spend the tax return on a new 2017 Grizzly 700 SE :).

One of the best things is finally being able to really invest in yourself. Hop online and load up a compound interest calculator and play with the monthly deposit amount and interest rates. It’s great to take aim at a big number and have a great chance of getting there. Beats the crap out of paying the Bank and/or GM dealership.

These days after financial obligations are met, consist of paying ourselves, and indulging in a little of the consumerism we denied ourselves for near two decades.

#179 Rained out on 05.05.17 at 1:53 pm

#41 lemmiwinks on 05.04.17 at 7:46 pm

Garth, you look like Ricky Gervais from The Office. I have googled Smoking man and found his twitter and blog but none the wiser as to who he is.
___________________________________________
He post his real name back some tima ago, we think?
#55 Smoking Man on 03.02.17 at 10:10 pm

No Hope I hear ya.

Confessions of The Smoking Man a day early.
NoName. thanks for that post yesterday.

When you have everything but want just a bit more.

Please note I am a confused serial liar, take from what I write here with a bit of salt.

My real name is Jim Stoj people at the tax farm know me as STOJ.

I have left out the remaining 12 characters of my last name, you know, identity theft and things like that. But you dogs are smart bastards and can probably figure it. Just please don’t post your big internet find on here, Identity theft is real. But sadly don’t think anyone would want mine, so go nuts.

Now what an amazing experience creating Smoking Man, Learning to write, fooling myself that I can make a living doing this.

Smoking Man is my total alters ego. I’m nothing like Smoking Man, Truth is I’m dirt poor at the moment, why else would I drive that truck. I’m a chicken shit when it comes to investing. God has trained me well over time.

Yes, Casinos, and the zest for life, I was diagnosed with terminal cancer years ago, so I figured I’m not going to outlive my money have fun, live for today so I went nuts.

Fk I’m still here. What an amazing wife I have, backs me 100% They don’t make em like that anymore.

The truth is god hates my guts. but I keep him so entertained he keeps me around, he’s truly a demented prick.

Every time I have ever invested a cent in anything, it goes south fast and I can hear god laughing at me from the heavens.

He is such a bad ass that anytime I make a call, the son of a bitch makes it happen, further torturing me. And I have made amazing calls and never bet them. Know your enemy is all I’m saying.

I paper trade forex and have helped a few dogs on here become millionaires. I’m not that lucky personally.

Well, smoking man took over my linked in account recently, Some kind of mental breakdown on my part. Years of building a great reputation down the toilet in a few keystrokes. No one on my contact list will ever hire me on contract again. I’m toast. broke, no fx account in the islands.

Do I blame anyone? hell no. I set out to be a gonzo writer by the encouragement of you blog dogs and I did it. My book is good, it’s great. But I should have planned a marketing budget. Now, the lefty loons will take great pride in mocking me.

Just know this, if I find out who you work for, and I buy 1 fricken share. God is taking your company down.

NoName. thanks for that post yesterday.

My place is mortgaged to the titts, what little I have left, I’m forced to sell early. 2018 is the peak.

I’m changing the name of the book to Deplorable Aliens, or something like that. There is a Dr. Win out there who will help me do this right. at least I will be able to buy cigarets and wine on you dogs making it a best seller by telling everyone you know how great it is.

Being a book writer doesn’t pay shit vs. a great code smith. But I culturally fked that one up. I’m still a great code smith that no one wants’s

Medical Smoke is so under-rated for killing cancer. Should have gone for chemo and I would have zero challenges or problems now.

Dr Stoj

#180 Braj on 05.05.17 at 1:58 pm

#171 traderJim on 05.05.17 at 11:56 am
Oil down massively yesterday and last night, June rate hike odds now above 90%, housing bubble letting off steam, yet the loonie rises today.

Hmmmm. Wonder what’s going on?

Loonie still the worst performing major currency so far this year, and I don’t see that changing. Sticking with my short.

See you at 69 cents. Then I will cover.

What was your exact play here? When you say cover, what do you mean? I am an amateur attempting to understand..

#181 Kate on 05.05.17 at 2:15 pm

180 braj

Me too! Someone needs to share some resources so I can start to use this information for my family. I’m totally in! But I’m having a hard time understanding…

#182 John of Grant on 05.05.17 at 2:31 pm

#171 TraderJim
#180 Braj
the Loonie rose as Oil rose 2.50 between midnight and noon. The Loonie is currently about 73 cents. TraderJim says he will close out his short (cover) when it drops further to 69.

#183 NoName on 05.05.17 at 2:49 pm

@cici

Using like song as metafor for silance your critiques… don’t know, are you music teacher?
How about I help you a bit.

Rock or Bust, ac/dc or all time clasic
My way by Frank Sinatra. Buty way is bit tricky because it’s derivative of some French song, let’s stick with australians.

http://www.blabbermouth.net/news/acdcs-angus-young-explains-rock-or-bust-album-title-video/

https://youtu.be/_NdHySPJr8I

#184 traderJim on 05.05.17 at 2:58 pm

#180 Braj

My biggest trade is being short the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. There are many ways you can do this, not all of them easy.

One way I am ‘short’ is by selling short FXC, which is a trust that acts like a stock and mimics the USD/CAD exchange rate. You can buy or sell this as long as you have a proper investment account set up with any major bank, for example. Trades just like any other stock on a US exchange. You will need to meet certain requirements to be able to short it, and you will not be allowed to short in an RRSP account.

You can also buy puts on FXC so that you profit if the loonie falls quickly enough. I don’t like to buy options as much as I like to sell them, so I avoid buying puts. Books are written on these topics.

I am also ‘short’ the loonie by being long the US dollar. I took my Canadian assets and converted them all to US dollars a few years back (including the vast majority of my RRSPs) and invested in US dollar denominated stocks and real estate.

So when the US dollar rises, my net worth in Canadian dollar terms rises. (Assuming I at some point convert back to the CAD $, which I will. But a lot of my gains are paper for the moment.)

To ‘cover’ I just mean buy some Canadian dollars to cover my short position, to become ‘flat’ or neutral, so that I no longer win or lose based on exchange rate fluctuations.

At some point (low 60’s IF it gets there) I would probably go long the Canadian dollar, by buying FXC call options, which is a cheap way to do it, although not the most liquid.

Hope that helps?

#185 Gentle ,Loving Kindness on 05.05.17 at 3:05 pm

Home Capital Group (HCG.T), fell below its long-term trend band in the middle of 2015. It was a buy in mid-2013. By mid -2014 it was above its long-term trend band and the time to sell to harvest your profits. By mid-2015, all signals were to get out and sell and never return. The chart tells you everything you need to know.

#186 A Reply to #180 Braj on 05.05.17 at 3:09 pm

“What was your exact play here? When you say cover, what do you mean? I am an amateur attempting to understand….”

Here’s the short version:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_(finance)

#187 Hollywood Jack on 05.05.17 at 3:13 pm

Looks like HCG about to take it’s last breath.

$1 next week?

#188 NoName on 05.05.17 at 3:21 pm

On my previous post forget to add rock or bust lot more drama involved, than with Sinatra’s my way.

#189 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 05.05.17 at 3:34 pm

“Belfountain May 13”

Sorry, I have other, more important plans (my Birthday), and I don’t like dogs.

But you’ll never find a bigger supporter of motorcycle riders than myself. In fact, I have 260 million of them at my call.

#190 Such a great job! on 05.05.17 at 3:34 pm

That video is such a great job!

#191 bdwy sktrn on 05.05.17 at 3:35 pm

#180 Braj on 05.05.17 at 1:58 pm

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortcovering.asp

#192 bdwy sktrn on 05.05.17 at 3:40 pm

short form;

long trade= buy, then sell

short trade= sell, then buy(cover)

#193 bdwy sktrn on 05.05.17 at 3:47 pm

smokey and garth ya need to come out to van for a 604 blog dog piss up at flop’s house.

no ice cream. east van craft brew, single malt and JD on the menu.

#194 AGuyInVancouver on 05.05.17 at 3:49 pm

#96 Mark – And if you believe that TEB has a cozy, character home oozing with charm (aka crackshack with a mould problem) to sell ya.

#195 Game Over on 05.05.17 at 3:49 pm

At what point will Poloz be forced to act on rates?

June rate hike is a pretty much done deal and there may be another one in September..

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobs-report-cements-fed-interest-rate-hike-in-june-economists-say-2017-05-05

#196 Tower on 05.05.17 at 4:21 pm

Smoking man looks an awful lot like Ron Perlman.

#197 Mark on 05.05.17 at 4:40 pm

“At what point will Poloz be forced to act on rates? “

Considering Canada’s comatose economy and labour market, an unfolding slow-motion systemic bank run, falling RE prices nationwide, inflation that is well beneath the 2% policy target, and the spectre of a much weaker economy, Poloz may very well be forced to lower rates on the 24th of May.

#198 Bad News Bear on 05.05.17 at 5:16 pm

Not good… apparently the ‘surge’ in listing came as a result of people wanting to cash in on a 30% y/y price hike. No secret agents worked overtime, door by door soliciting listings and promising fabulous prices.

Nobody really needs to sell that badly, as carrying costs are low, so if bidding wars did not ensue, as sellers feel the govt on their side and wait, they are raising the asking price to reflect real expectations.. they have a 3 month contract after all, if no sale, they take it off the market.

#199 Where's The Money Guido? on 05.05.17 at 6:31 pm

Addendum to # 213 Where’s The Money Guido? on 05.03.17 at 12:23 pm
Coming to a province near you: Credit Unions in BC, along with the BC gov’t, are changing their coverage of their accounts from $1 million to $100,000 in the guise to take their CUs across Canada and to limit their exposure to the fallout of the coming housing crash as they are dis-proportionally exposed to the mortgages.
With the change, they are also going to issue shares on stock exchanges and be bought and sold.
This has happened in Australia and has left its members without the say and share in the profits when they get sold (http://cufutures.ca/2017/04/10/coast-capital-sales-culture/).
Coast Capital is at the forefront of the rip-off of its members. and is having their Annual General Meeting today-the meeting is at 5 pm today (May 3rd), 2017 at Quilchena Golf & Country Club
3551 Granville Avenue Richmond, BC V7C 1C8.
If any of you are Coast members, I suggest you get to this meeting to question this rip-off.

Well, I had the pleasure of attending Coast Capital Credit Union’s (BC) Annual General Meeting to see how the vote was to take Coast Capital federal. What an eye opener!
Members supposedly voted 86.4% in favor!!!!!!!! I have to temper that with the fact that there wasn’t an independent auditor watching over the vote, just one of their Directors, hahaha.

Found out that Coast Capital hired ex-BC Hydro lawyer!! David Avren as General Counsel and Corporate Secretary, a couple months ago, just before Coast dreamed up this vote to take it federal. What a co-inky-dink, eh? They hired a guy who made legal compliance non-existent at BC Hydro from 2000 on, when the Lieberals first got elected in BC.
BC residents know all to well where BC Hydro has gone from then, with rates up exponentially and a debt north of $100 billion with future Independent Power Projects contracts included at ~$60 billion (buying it from IPPs at $100 per Mw/h, while selling it for $30/Mw/h on the market).
Since 2002 BC Hydro paid independent power producers $9 billion. Here’s the kicker: Once the contracts with BC Hydro expire, privately-owned IPPs wills be allowed free export of electricity on Hydro’s lines, which could negatively impair BC’s energy resources. They are also paying about $55-million a year to ensure emergency power is available if needed.

Another coincidence is most of these IPPs have former Liberal MLAs-Ministers and insiders at top positions in these companies. Hydro paid $672 million!!! over market price in 2015 alone (http://northerninsights.blogspot.ca/2016/02/ipp-paid-672-million-over-market-in-2015.html+ https://in-sights.ca/, https://www.biv.com/article/2017/3/bc-racks-58-billion-independent-power-producers-co/). BC Hydro themselves state they are losing $1.4 billion in IPP power because of overbuilding and oversupply.

Guess who was involved in the set-up of these deals since he has worked there since 2000, none other than Mr. Avren!

They also hired Bruce Schouten as Chief Risk Officer from OSFI (Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions) one of the completely useless orgs. that oversee banking in Canada, I’m guessing to “help” Mr. Avren keep Coast legally compliant by using/changing the rules to undermine policy, just like at BC Hydro.
And who do I see at the AGM but none other than Tamara Vrooman, who is CEO of Vancity CU and also former insider of former BC Premier Gordon Campbell (Greedo (Guido)-get the reference). I’ve never saw another CU’s CEO show up at any other AGM – really important for her to show up. I guess she’s there to make sure she gets the questions ahead of time when Vancity goes the same route (and of course report back to Guido Scambell and his bankster mafia).
It never ends…..

#200 pete on 05.05.17 at 7:02 pm

It would not take a 13 year bear run to undo a 13 year bull run. Crash happens fast. 20+ years US housing bull run was ended with just 2 years, 2007 and 2008. The other theory is that the longer the bubble lasts, like this one in Canadian housing, the faster and more violent the crash would be.

so wait to see the freak show to start. won’t be boring and long, I promise.

#201 pete on 05.05.17 at 7:37 pm

It is a myth that a bubble only burst because of some outside events. Like a housing bubble could burst because interest rates rise or unemployment rises. A bubble, by definition, must burst. It will burst if it is pushed to the maximum with absolutely no outside prodding. A bubble burst under that circumstance will bring the most ugly consequences since it is a bubble inflated to the fullest.

like the current housing bubble in Canada. inflated to the fullest and will burst on its own.

#202 Welcome to Slurrey on 05.06.17 at 2:25 am

Im on ground zero …….. yvr still has lots of legs, ” smart investors” have lost , bottom line seems to be real estate is not risky , your suites will cover the mortgage and in the long run it always goes up , rates have not moved ….. unless there’s some black swan event, the herd is right …….. leverage at 3 and earn double digit returns on a few hundred thousand or take the less risky route , take your piddly “down payment money” and earn 6% ………if you can qualify for a mortgage with minimum down you might as well take the plunge

#203 Pulp Faction on 05.07.17 at 11:31 pm

Glad you found your little corner of heaven, Garth.
It looks great !