Rexit

Imagine buying a house worth $1.5 million to $2 million in 15 minutes. Without seeing it. Not built yet. And the deal’s firm. No second thoughts. No backing out or cooling off. No conditions, No second-guessing.

Come early. Line up for a couple hours with a few hundred strangers. No bathroom. Feel stressed and competitive. Bring at least five personal cheques for deposits. Plus photo ID. And you’d better be pre-qualified for a mortgage, or have bundles of cash. Because – did I mention? – there are no conditions. You sign it. You bought it. Thirty-eight-foot lot. Move-in date is two years out. Maybe.

Such is the reality for new-house buyers in the GTA. Yes, it’s insane, illogical, demeaning and fraught with risk. But the three builders who will unleash this madness on the morning of Saturday, May 13th know that supplicants will camp out overnight and the new ‘Impressions in the Village of Kleinberg’ will sell out in a day. Maybe two.

K village, by the way, is about 50 km from downtown Toronto, and the drive takes between one hour (good day) and 90 minutes (regular day) in traffic which can best be described as lethal. Also, to carry a $2 million house requires a minimum downpayment of $450,000 and an income of $260,000 – and that’s with the lowest mortgage rates ever, around 2.5% for a fixed-rate loan.

No sane person, even a rich one, would agree to buy a major property under such conditions. And yet purchasers believe the moment they walk out and climb into their CLA or E-class that they’ve just made money. Appreciation is relentless, unstoppable, expected and a mandate from God. After all, the price romp in that hood has exceeded even the shacks down the road in urban 416, as speculative buying has exploded in the exurbs and hinterland where cows, groundhogs and rustic rednecks in F150s were driven from their natural habitat.

This is why residential real estate is assuming more and more and more of Canada’s overall GDP. Actually, it’s scary. The entire economy is worth about $2.07 trillion, and personal debt (two-thirds of it mortgages) is now at $2.08 trillion. Never happened before. Residential real estate accounts for half of all economic growth, as we busily sell each other houses. At 13.2% of the GDP housing exceeds all manufacturing (10.5%), oil & gas (8%) and even the banks (7%). And yet it’s held together with the gossamer threads of emotion and confidence, and reinforced with the duct tape of cheap money.

We’re more dependent on housing than was the US before the real estate crash that peeled 32% off valuations. Before California’s property plunge, taking the state (larger than Canada) to the brink of bankruptcy. Canadians carry more debt than Americans did at the height of the Ninja mortgage, use-your-house-as-an-ATM madness of 2005-6. With each passing day the overall risk to the economy grows, since the housing boom cannot last. When half the growth is related to real estate (there are 48,000 realtors in the GTA alone and 110,000 in Canada) any reversal in this industry is serious stuff. And it all runs on hormones.

Needless to say, the threats are growing. Governments are seeking ways of ‘cooling off’ the market and, if they succeed, the landing will not be soft. US tax cuts (announcement Wednesday) will help expand the US, drive interest rates higher and increase mortgages here. The protectionist poop just thrown at our lumber industry by the Trump White House could be a harbinger or what’s yet to come – an assault on dairy or the gutting of NAFTA. Our dollar has gone into reverse, stoking inflation (thank goodness fresh cauliflower season’s at hand). And our main export, oil, is at the mercy of US overproduction. Wage growth is stagnant. Nik Nanos (I told you yesterday) finds a third of people say their finances are deteriorating. So all of housing’s gains are coming on the back of fresh debt.

Just as sane people do not spend $2 million on the strength of a salesman and a brochure in a few minutes, smart folks who have scored windfall gains in an unprecedented housing mania should seriously consider rexit. Nobody ever was destroyed by selling too soon. Millions have seen it happen by getting out too late.

See you on the 13th.  Historic.

Like watching the last bison go over the edge.

254 comments ↓

#1 Mark on 04.25.17 at 5:00 pm

“Our dollar has gone into reverse, stoking inflation “

Inflation? What inflation? Even when we had that severe downdraft last year, there was no inflation (a few exaggerated cases of cauliflower at high-end grocery stores aside!). And with Canadian housing prices falling nationwide at this point, and stagnant wages, there’s definitely no inflation anywhere to be seen on the horizon.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/cpis01a-eng.htm

What is becoming increasingly clear is the need to cut the BoC policy rate in response to falling housing prices, a weakening employment backdrop, and inflation which is nowhere near the BoC’s 2% target. In the short term, this can weaken the CAD$ as speculators trade against it, but the relative stability of purchasing power in the CAD$, and eventually the strengthening of purchasing power due to housing demand-destruction led deflation should drive the CAD$ much higher in the years to come.

Fortunately this situation has given Canadians, that is, Canadians who still have some balance sheet flexibility, epic opportunities in the TSX. Its hitting new all-time highs, and the party is just getting started. Too bad that most Canadians, particularly younger Canadians, have little to no capacity to participate in its likely mean reversion to the upside after the past decade of stagnation.

#2 When Will They Raise Rates? on 04.25.17 at 5:02 pm

Madness.

I have no sympathy for those who will get wiped out in the correction. It’s going to be brutal.

After it blows, people will look back at this period and wonder how people could act so irrationally… This bubble will be a case study in economics (and psychology) courses decades from now.

#3 Randy on 04.25.17 at 5:04 pm

You’re right Garth…It’s insane

#4 Doug t on 04.25.17 at 5:08 pm

Dead years ahead here in Canada – many are going to get crucified – and then they will cry and scream for help from the government and banks.

#5 Shortymac on 04.25.17 at 5:14 pm

Interesting question, how do you think the Trump tariffs on softwood are going to impact Canada and the economy?

Do you still think it’s only going to be a 10% decrease in prices?

If these moves by the provincial and federal governments aren’t enough to cool it and both aren’t willing to raise rates, what will?

#6 Moving the bubble around on 04.25.17 at 5:27 pm

Our politicians, federal and provincial, have no real intent to deflate our housing bubble. Their goal is merely to keep pushing it throughout all of Canada, by taking local measures. I guess this is their idea of creating wealth for voters across Canada, as opposed to encouraging real productivity. I suspect that in a few years this indane bubble will have struck all major cities in Canada. At that point, our loonie may be so low that no deflation will occur. The big losers will be everybody who postponed buying and invested their loonie holdings; as well as an entire generation of young millenials whose futures are being stolen by our socialist “leaders” as we speak.

#7 Millenial905er on 04.25.17 at 5:30 pm

Drowning in debt is the new normal in Canada http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/drowning-in-debt-is-the-new-normal-in-canada/ via @macleans

I was out shopping today. Lots of fancy cars, carts full of expensive goods. Doesn’t bother me anymore. Hubs and I live well below our means. 10 year old car, sure but no stress. House almost paid off, savings, DB pensions. Considering our options, one of which is to get out of Ontari-owe. Can’t imagine why anyone would pay 2 mil to live here no matter the house size.

Smart money is moving out of Canada. I know many wealthy folks who are sick of being taxed to death and are deciding to move to the US/Mexico. It’s not worth the marginal benefits anymore. Weather’s nicer too.

#8 Drill Baby Drill on 04.25.17 at 5:41 pm

This Softwood lumber battle has been going on since I was a teenager. I am now 62yrs. Canada has always won in the WTO courts. It is the dairy and auto pact NAFTA components that is really worrisome.

#9 WenonaLake on 04.25.17 at 5:42 pm

Long time lurker… don’t usually like to wade into this cesspool of blog doggers… but…

I have lost all faith in my goverments. Both Federal and Provincial. No one knows what they are doing, there is no united front! Fortunately for me and my family, we own our house, are in our peak earnings years and are stuffing those earnings into a balanced portfolio so that we can have a good retirement and put the kiddies through Uni.

We kissed our 2% manager goodbye last year and boy, have I seen the difference that made. Woohoo! Stock market climb or not, just not paying him increases our value.

Thanks Garth! You’re the man and I’m looking forward to ice cream and a dog pet or two at your store this summer.

#10 Drill Baby Drill on 04.25.17 at 5:43 pm

I wonder how low the Loonie will fall before Poloz panics?

#11 NoName on 04.25.17 at 5:45 pm

See you on the 13th. Historic. -GT

I hope there is no name tags i hate to be only one with noname on a name tag…

#12 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 04.25.17 at 5:48 pm

Inrerest rates gping Uppa UP up and home prices going downa down down. So many of you realtos will loae your job and all your speaks plus ypur own home. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#13 Leo Trollstoy on 04.25.17 at 5:50 pm

Any real estate in a 2 hour radius of Toronto including Toronto itself is increasing in price. And will for the foreseeable future as the government is determined to keep Canadians in debt with rock bottom rates.

Thankfully the Canadian economy is doing modestly well and is experiencing healthy inflation, otherwise our dollar would be completely worthless (like gold). Today it’s just mildly worthless. The Canadian dollar hasn’t seen the sun for almost a decade. This won’t change as long as Trump is POTUS.

#14 Lulu on 04.25.17 at 6:08 pm

Yea, ppl are losing their mind, in vaughn and keele a pre con sales center, 30 foot lot with 1700sf cost 1.4 milion and ppl are lining up under the rain storm, you want a little bigger, 36 foot lot with 2400sf, 1.76 million, and it sold out within hours…lol You have to see it to believe it.. what more can we say!

Bubble popple!!

#15 coitus rexitus on 04.25.17 at 6:11 pm

This blog was crying wolf a decade too soon.

Lots of bisons left a good fortune on the table staying away from “the edge” due to the premature rexit call.

The point is not to have a one-asset strategy (house only) but to enjoy a balanced and diversified financial life. That reduces risk and volatility while providing income and future financial security. Putting all your eggs in one basket is gambling. — Garth

#16 GTA girl on 04.25.17 at 6:13 pm

Kleinburg, Vaughan my hood.

This development you mentioned isn’t even close to the actual village core. You cannot walk there, its roughly 3km away, you’d have to walk along highway 27 (no sidewalks). Many old timers in Kleinburg call this new area, the New kleinburg ghetto. Homes packed in tight, surrounded by barren fields. About to become offramps for newly extended highway 427. Bordering on Bolton/Brampton, close up to CP rail yards. (You can see the stacked rail cars from your backyard!) there’s also the large natural gas pipeline that runs smack dab through the area. Some homes are a mere 20ft from the pipeline field. A few of the homes have guard rails in front so cars don’t take the sharp tight subdivision turns and end up in the pipeline gutter.

Some of these homes, indeed sit on tight postage sized lots. From a distance homes appear to be almost 4 stories high. All the better to see the rail cars!

Across the pipeline barrier, not accessible directly, is the posher development on old Kleinburg golf club. These monstrosities are 6,000 sq ft plus, with ugly porticos that you have to maneuver your Bentley around to get into your garage…except, no one seems to have any luxury cars, save for 5 year old Lexus, but mostly older Toyotas and pickups. Princess Margaret raffled a home here. It had a basement hockey rink. No sidewalks, nothing to walk to, sound of the trains every night, the hum of highway 50… to buy a house in this pit, is roughly $3.5+mil

Insanity.

#17 Made For TV Actor on 04.25.17 at 6:14 pm

Having the advantage being able to view and analyze the mounts of evidence that lead to the US housing market collapse in 2008/09, why is the Canadian government afraid to making the tough decisions? I get that the circumstances are not the exact same, but there are a shocking number of mirror images. I understand raising the interest rate will hurt a massive portion of the voting populace – moisters with huge mortgages, but isn’t that going to happen regardless if there is a steady decrease in housing values?

#18 DaleFromCalgary on 04.25.17 at 6:18 pm

Walking around in my Calgary neighbourhood in Altadore, I see new particleboard infills selling within a week of the sign going up. Yet every food court in the downtown core has at least one vacancy. Retailers in shopping malls are folding up as the Internet takes over.

South of Calgary is Head-Smashed-In Buffalo Jump. Thousands of aboriginals used to gather at the cliff and plan bison drives. Then horses were introduced and the jumps were all abandoned. Sound familiar?

But my question remains. Where is the money coming from?

#19 YVR Update on 04.25.17 at 6:19 pm

The housing markets has always been right for the last 2 decades.

Foreign students, Foreign money, and 10 year visitor visas, Supervises, etc.

People that are buying know exactly what they are doing. Sure it diverts money from other financial asset classes but lets not get carried away. Realtors never keep saying that the “DOW is going down 30%”..

#20 Vit on 04.25.17 at 6:21 pm

I actually did sign up for a Kleinburg development lust Fall with Goldparkhomes goldparkhomes.com/kleinburg/. After receiving an email for them with specific appointment time I did call them them and asked if people going to camp in advance but was assured that every group of 20 people was given a specific appointment time so should be no line up.
Eventually I I did not show up for that appointment since prices for comparable homes in that area were even cheaper that what they ask .

#21 jSS on 04.25.17 at 6:22 pm

# 1 Mark – if Canadians have no money to spend because they’re either out of work, or working with stagnant incomes, then how can you expect the TSX to rise?

In fact, the Canadian banks might be in trouble here. Banks gave people with barely a pulse, a big fat mortgage. Many Canadians might foreclose. What do you think will happen to the bank’s common share dividends? It has the potential of a dividend cut.

#22 YVR Update on 04.25.17 at 6:22 pm

And it is the governments fault if the housing mess blows over. Many of my friends will just leave Canada for 7 years and then come back.

The people who will be really screwed are those who only have both feet in canada (as opposed to having a foot in another country). How’s that for a risk strategy!!

#23 GTA girl on 04.25.17 at 6:29 pm

Also, “new Kleinburg” (Kms away from village) had some difficulty when the first wave of owners moved in. It seemed the area wasn’t even in the boundary of Kleinburg. They received a Woodbridge postal code. Residents became infuriated. Not with the developers however, but with the area councillor and MPP. They demanded to know why if they paid a premium to have the prestige name of Kleinburg, why didn’t they get the postal code? Farmers in the area, often said that area was Woodbridge/Nashville. Mostly farm land, scrub, flood plains. Absolutely flat. The tiny town of Nashville, which encompasses much of the area, has all but been wiped off the map. The little sign is still there on Nashville Road. Just a long strip of rental homes, enclave of mansions and dilapidated landscaping businesses. But Nashville doesn’t have the developer anointed sex appeal like Kleinburg. So we lost a bit of Canadiana history.

Those new residents waited a long time to get the Kleinburg postal code. Not sure if the fight with Canada Post has been resolved (seems the developers didn’t tell Canada Post they’d re-assigned the area in their glossy pamphlets). Residents got even madder when they were told their kids would be bused to a closer school in Woodbridge. Because the one in the village core was too far away and “oops” in a totally different boundary.

do your homework, people

#24 Nonplused on 04.25.17 at 6:37 pm

Well, the house just down the cul de sac from us just sold in a week, and that was in Calgary! Well near Calgary. Don’t know final price but list was $1.8 million. However, that is quite a different house than what $1.8 million buys in Toronto. It’s probably 5000 sq ft, 4 car garage, developed walk out basement, the whole south side of the house is glass (all 3 stories), it’s on 2 acres, sits right on the ridge of the Bow River valley and has an outstanding mountain view. Plus it’s only 35 minutes from downtown and walking distance to the K-8 school and community center. I think it’s even got an RV pad. Lots of space to add one if not.

#25 Kool Aid on 04.25.17 at 6:38 pm

This funky experiment the central banks have unleashed has no foreseeable end, no defined exit.

Rates have been compressed so low for so long, that normalizing interest would lead to mass defaults.

Currency devaluation, lowering interest rates has been the answer, sky high assets values, the answer.

Social, political & economic plans are inadaquate. I anticipate Janet & Fed friends will raise interest rates a couple of times later this year, additionally major NAFTA protectionism will factor in Poloz’s decision to take the loonie way down.

Oh well, great run Canada, fun while it lasted.

The US will have to build a wall on the northern boarder to keep the floods of illeagal Canadian migrants at bay, strange thing, theses migrants will be 1%ers.

#26 IHCTD9 on 04.25.17 at 6:41 pm

#7 Millenial905er on 04.25.17 at 5:30 pm
Drowning in debt is the new normal in Canada http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/drowning-in-debt-is-the-new-normal-in-canada/ via @macleans

I was out shopping today. Lots of fancy cars, carts full of expensive goods. Doesn’t bother me anymore. Hubs and I live well below our means. 10 year old car, sure but no stress. House almost paid off, savings, DB pensions. Considering our options, one of which is to get out of Ontari-owe. Can’t imagine why anyone would pay 2 mil to live here no matter the house size.

Smart money is moving out of Canada. I know many wealthy folks who are sick of being taxed to death and are deciding to move to the US/Mexico. It’s not worth the marginal benefits anymore. Weather’s nicer too.
——-

The debt thing is largely urban, where most regular households earn near the same as those in the hinterland, but where everything else cost double except houses – which cost quadruple.

Consumption on expensive toys must be at an all time high. Everyone has a nice car/truck, a bike, quads, you name it. I was at the local Yamaha dealer last week, and the sales guy and I were talking financing. Yamaha will be offering 1.98% direct financing for ATV’s this year, Canam will finance your new $17,000 Renegade 1000 XMR for ten years. It’s just as bad as housing is. He said no one will sell jack unless you keep the payments under $75.00/wk.

Want a new $12,000.00 Grizzly 700 SE? That’ll be $55.00/wk. How about a new 10R? Zero to 60 in 2.9 seconds – you’ll need about $65.00/wk spare change. Factor in that a new sport bike cost hardly any more than it did back in the late 80’s to begin with, and minimum wage at 11.40/hr, now you’ve got kids flipping burgers diving home on 170 hp crotch rockets with plenty of spare cash left over.

Buddy said no young guys come in and pay cash, old guys only. Low low rates means basically anyone who has a decent job can own nice new cars and toys – as long as you’re not a new homeowner in YVR/GTA. Get rid of the financing deals at poverty rates, and sales would be chopped in half.

#27 AK on 04.25.17 at 6:50 pm

Toronto lawyer says $1B of Ontario investors’ money lost in syndicated mortgages

#28 Contrarian Coyote on 04.25.17 at 6:50 pm

#2 When Will They Raise Rates? on 04.25.17 at 5:02 pm
Madness.

I have no sympathy for those who will get wiped out in the correction. It’s going to be brutal.

After it blows, people will look back at this period and wonder how people could act so irrationally… This bubble will be a case study in economics (and psychology) courses decades from now.

#4 Doug t on 04.25.17 at 5:08 pm
Dead years ahead here in Canada – many are going to get crucified – and then they will cry and scream for help from the government and banks.

===

If any gov’t gives a single $0.01 to bail any of these knuckleheads out for their own folly, this country is done. I don’t want to see a single $0.01 given in relief to any bank or ‘homeowner.’ Fingers crossed that us savers & investors will finally be rewarded for saving & investing.

#29 Long-Time Lurker on 04.25.17 at 6:50 pm

#142 Mark on 04.25.17 at 2:23 pm
“In other words, these are uninsured mortgages, which would make them subprime? (ie, people who cannot qualify for CDIC). “

Nope. They may very well be extremely high quality mortgages. For example, a 20% LTV loan written to a dentist in suburbia has no risk of default. This sort of loan wouldn’t have CMHC subprime insurance on it, but until the introduction of uninsured MBS, such asset would have been held on the books of the banks.

These are the sorts of loans that can safely go into uninsured MBS and be sold to pension funds at better yields than the pension funds would get on debt of equivalent risk. With the balance sheet resources freed up at the banks by getting those mortgages off-books, the banks are free to pay higher dividends and/or pursue other lines of business.

In other words, it amounts to a bunch of nothing, IMHO. In fact, as an outside observer, its rather shocking that there was no MBS product in Canada other than the CMHC insured stuff until recently.


Counter-Argument (Pilfered from Garth!)

Rexit by Garth Turner. April 25th, 2017.

…This is why residential real estate is assuming more and more and more of Canada’s overall GDP. Actually, it’s scary. The entire economy is worth about $2.07 trillion, and personal debt (two-thirds of it mortgages) is now at $2.08 trillion. Never happened before. Residential real estate accounts for half of all economic growth, as we busily sell each other houses. At 13.2% of the GDP housing exceeds all manufacturing (10.5%), oil & gas (8%) and even the banks (7%). And yet it’s held together with the gossamer threads of emotion and confidence, and reinforced with the duct tape of cheap money.

We’re more dependent on housing than was the US before the real estate crash that peeled 32% off valuations. Before California’s property plunge, taking the state (larger than Canada) to the brink of bankruptcy. Canadians carry more debt than Americans did at the height of the Ninja mortgage, use-you-house-as-an-ATM madness of 2005-6. With each passing day the overall risk to the economy grows, since the housing boom cannot last. When half the growth is related to real estate (there are 48,000 realtors in the GTA alone and 110,000 in Canada) any reversal in this industry is serious stuff. And it all runs on hormones.

(Still think there’s no risk in this MBS product?)

Just get out of the way before it all topples on ya.

(Toronto & Vancouver housing markets)

#30 When Will They Raise Rates? on 04.25.17 at 6:51 pm

#1 Mark on 04.25.17 at 5:00 pm

“What is becoming increasingly clear is the need to cut the BoC policy rate in response to falling housing prices.. ”

———————

https://i.imgur.com/UzFEEtm.jpg

#31 Suburban Bob on 04.25.17 at 6:52 pm

Say what you will about commuting to the 905, Garth. I’ll take that any day. Plus we have Costco, fewer feminazi NDPers and, ….oh….did I mention:

Our air is not killing us!!!!

http://www.citynews.ca/video/2017/04/25/video-ttc-subway-air-pollution-on-par-with-beijing-smog-study-finds/

LOL – all those precious downtown Toronto hipsters are getting enough carbon in their lungs riding the TTC every day that they won’t live long enough to pay off the mortgages on their crazy shoebox condos.

The air is pretty fresh up here, and my car has air conditioning and Wifi :)

#32 Nonplused on 04.25.17 at 6:53 pm

The dairy farm thing seems a bit confusing to me. So far as I know, Canada does not “export” much dairy to the US because US prices are generally a lot cheaper than Canadian prices (due to the “quota” system). So the only way I can think that dairy farmers are being harmed in Wisconsin is by being denied access to the Canadian market. But you can’t have free markets and quotas at the same time. Same as you can’t have socialism and open borders at the same time. Some ideas are actually incompatible.

The softwood lumber issue is perhaps easier to understand because again the 2 markets are quite different, with most trees in Canada coming from public land whereas most trees in the US come from private tree farms. Still all that will probably happen when they add the softwood lumber tariff is that prices will rise in the US and fall in Canada. However If I were the government of BC I would probably just raise stumpage fees so the Americans don’t have anything to complain about. They get 30% of their lumber from us, so if they want it to cost more I suppose we can accommodate them.

#33 Sean on 04.25.17 at 6:54 pm

What’s happening with Vancouver’s condos? They’re going up again…even though there less sales?

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/vancouver-condo-market-sees-prices-increase-despite-less-sales/

Is this the definition of greater fool? If so, when does it end? Won’t the government just make all money useless?

#34 old gringo on 04.25.17 at 6:56 pm

As they say ” when the tide goes out, we’ll see who is swimming naked.
Me, I’m waiting for the CDN to crash and will move enough USD back to buy some multi family condos, after the housing crash has settled.
Meanwhile, I get 7%-9% in save term deposits in the banks south of the border.
Guess we wait and see how this plays out.

#35 Timmy on 04.25.17 at 6:59 pm

You say the government is looking at ways to cool off the market, but for the most part they are just diddling. A 15% foreign buyers tax is like telling a Canadian they have to pay another 5 grand if they buy a place in Nicaragua. It won’t move the needle.

#36 Self Directed on 04.25.17 at 7:02 pm

#22 YVR Update on 04.25.17 at 6:22 pm

And it is the governments fault if the housing mess blows over. Many of my friends will just leave Canada for 7 years and then come back.

The people who will be really screwed are those who only have both feet in canada (as opposed to having a foot in another country). How’s that for a risk strategy!!
………………
Terrible idea. Here’s why.

Leaving the country to avoid a housing correction or recession is EXACTLY the same thing as exiting an asset class. Their timing will be off and they will get creamed.

On the other hand, if your friends don’t have any money or assets (which sounds like the case), a ‘just leave’ strategy will be simple to execute. But then what’s the point of leaving?

The “smart money” Canadians (the ones not over-extended on their mortgages) will just ride out a small correction that will last about a year tops, and in the end will be ahead.

Besides, a rich Canadian wandering around Mexico is just begging for the worst kind of trouble. I’ll stay here, thanks.

#37 TurnerNation on 04.25.17 at 7:06 pm

Funny story here on the King St. W party strip.

See the condo building between yellow, blue arrows? Units sell from 1.5m up to 10million.

Soon to be flanked by new construction and office towers:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1441493542556898&set=gm.1047870335344741&type=3&theater

Welcome to Agenda 21 nightmare. Densification. Devaluation.

#38 I'm Not Poloz on 04.25.17 at 7:09 pm

Even with a 73-cent Loonie, Poloz is still not satisfied. He wants the Loonie to be at around 50 cents or 45 cents if Trump cuts corporate taxes.

Speaking real estate in Toronto, there are definitely Greater Fools who believe that purchasing that $1.8 MM home just south of Steeles Ave is living the Canadian Social Justice Warrior dream.

South of Steeles Ave, so that the indoctrinated Toronto Police can serve and protect the 1% ers by chasing away all the homeless and poor off our streets even though they were forced to live on the street because of real estate speculation.

Living the Canadian dream by purchasing the latest Mercedes Benz with the husband carrying the baby stroller, and later getting divorced 10 years later is the life to live in Toronto.

More power to them, I guess. The only person from Toronto I would listen to is probably that crazy doctor from Your Ward News.

Brad Lamb should really take some advice from that crazy doctor regarding the dating scene in Toronto. I’ve heard that it’s terrible to date in Toronto unless you want to sign up for a mortgage, and they come like locusts to a corn field.

There is also an article “15 Reasons why Toronto is the worst city in the world” from another website which will deter you from even traveling to Toronto on vacation. It’s not worth it. You will find out why.

#39 Ace Goodheart on 04.25.17 at 7:09 pm

As this “line up early for a house or condo” stuff gets hotter going into the summer, another money making opportunity presents itself. Condo or new house “line waiting”.

Here is what you do: If you know a popular project is going to sell, go down a few days before and camp out. Then when the crowds come and things get hairy, sell your place at the front of the line to the highest bidder.

This stuff is big money. I’m talking like a grand or two per line.

#40 Wrk.dover on 04.25.17 at 7:14 pm

I guess the moisters you speak of, never heard Billy Joel sing ” I’m Moving Out ” back in ’78.

I did, bought the album and dropped out, 1000 miles clear of the GTA .

#41 Buddy on 04.25.17 at 7:15 pm

#1

Dude, you r either being sarcastic or
you are truly f-ked up!

#42 Condo Mania on 04.25.17 at 7:16 pm

People are now panic buying condos. I live in C01 of Toronto, and my 1 bedroom + Den (650 sft) over the past few months went from $390k to $530k (based on recent sales). People are now talking about these central units going for $600k soon, as we become “internationally competitive”. It feels like there is no end to the mania.

#43 Dan.t on 04.25.17 at 7:18 pm

#1 business in Canada- people selling houses to each other. I thought Ponzi schemes were illegal. That’s what it is, isn’t it?

As long as new buyers can keep paying higher prices it continues. The minutes the herd wakes up to just how stupid things have become and buyers actually make rational decisions not to participate, it all comes crashing down.

Real estate board has 80% of Canadians brainwashed- real estate is religion to Canadians now. Pathetic. All that matters is how much real estate you own. It can’t end soon enough but probably won’t stop until either rates rise or the last fool just can’t scrape up enough even with only needing 2% down +2% subprime + bank of mom + credit card maxed…. then party over.

Or interest rates rise 1%. Good thing that will never happen. Like government doesn’t know how vulnerable the housing house of card Ponzi scheme is? And thank god poloz knows interest rates don’t matter. I guess giving out free money to everyone who wants it for an insane amount of time doesn’t cause bubbles.

Don’t worry now that government policies have made housing a commodity and severely unaffordable, they are now going to fix it. This should be good!

#44 Barb on 04.25.17 at 7:23 pm

Re DAIRY products under NAFTA…I really wouldn’t mind seeing Trump destroy our ridiculous dairy marketing board which even hurts our smaller retailers.

But I still wouldn’t drink American milk, or eat their cheese.
Way too many hormones and antibiotics.
Doesn’t even taste like milk.

#45 Pete from St. Cesaire on 04.25.17 at 7:24 pm

And yet purchasers believe the moment they walk out and climb into their CLA or E-class that they’ve just made money.
———————————————
Don’t these people realize that if buying pre-built housing was truly a route to instant, no-risk, wealth that it would be illegal for the average joe like themselves to even do so (laws to ‘protect’ the novice investor, etc.).

#46 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.25.17 at 7:25 pm

That photo of the dogs is hilarious

#47 Capt. Serious on 04.25.17 at 7:27 pm

A cool two million can get you a house overlooking the canal, 10 minutes to downtown Ottawa, or a short anti traffic trip to east or west or south.
Crazy stuff in the GTA.

#48 Dan.t on 04.25.17 at 7:29 pm

And how much do you want to bet that the minute housing really comes crashing down, that all those fools who spent all of 15 minutes buying a 500k apartment or 1.8 million dollar uninspected house will be crying for a government bailout… and probably get it.

That is how society works now- if you make dumb choices , blame others and guarantee if things go south bad, government will bail out speculators one way or another with tax payers money… proving once and for all it no longer pays to be a rational and prudent person.

#49 Canada is an Debt ponzi scheme on 04.25.17 at 7:35 pm

http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/drowning-in-debt-is-the-new-normal-in-canada/

Canada is a house of cards based on nothing but debt which these Canadians have NO INTENTIONS of ever paying it back. Canada is a pathetic house of cards and automation will expose just how many Canadians are swimming naked. Look at how many so called professions who should know better are bankrupt. It’s sickening how financially stupid Canadians have become.

#50 Gregory Jones on 04.25.17 at 7:36 pm

Garth, Why was WFT and Canfor soaring today after 20% Tarriffs on their products?

The market expected worse. — Garth

#51 Pete from St. Cesaire on 04.25.17 at 7:37 pm

Dead years ahead here in Canada – many are going to get crucified – and then they will cry and scream for help from the government and banks.
———————————————————-
And the government will listen and tax away or inflate away what little wealth remains with the middle class (how dare they have enough money to own a house, a car, a boat, a Rolex, or take a vacation. They’re obviously not paying their ‘fair share’).
If you have wealth; spend it now on things you’ve always wanted such as a Ferrari, or take a few trips to Liechtenstein, or be prepared to lose it all.
It’s already written in stone; the people have spoken and you’ve lost.

#52 Shirtless Tuesday's on 04.25.17 at 7:38 pm

Last week the Barrie Examiner wrote that 10% of Barrie homeowners are behind on their property taxes. The City is dealing with a shortfall of $15 Million in unpaid property taxes – though crickets from the masses!! If this isn’t the canary in the coal mine taking its last breath I don’t know what other telling sign that things may get ugly very quickly.

And in the same breath, I just drove past Newmarket and a massive housing development is in the works with hopes from the city to house 10K people – just getting crazier by the day.

My neighbour (though pretty much a douche bag) works for a major builder in Milton, and the few words we do exchange he keeps saying that they are building at a feverish pitch, he’s the guy who repairs or corrects any issues after homebuyers have moved in. He always says – all those who buy are either Asian, Persian or Russian – though it makes sense. You seek the safety and less volatile country to resettle. Homes that are selling in the $800K range and I bet this is a bargain from those who are seeking a better life and likely pockets full of cash – my question is how many of those are carrying a mortgage – few I bet.

Is it just me or do other’s sense that one day we’ll awake in the morning and the world economy will be turned upside down and panic will rush over the world’s economy – maybe having a hard asset may be the wisest thing yet. IMHO.

#53 GFC v2.0 on 04.25.17 at 7:53 pm

#1 Mark on 04.25.17 at 5:00 pm
“…..What is becoming increasingly clear is the need to cut the BoC policy rate in response to falling housing prices……”
_____________________________________

I thought April Fools was 24 days ago.

#54 Timmy on 04.25.17 at 7:54 pm

Funny… You say the government is looking at ways to cool off the market, but for the most part they are just diddling. A 15% foreign buyers tax is like telling a Canadian they have to pay another 5 grand if they buy a place in Nicaragua. It won’t move the needle.

#55 coitus rexitus on 04.25.17 at 7:55 pm

#15 coitus rexitus on 04.25.17 at 6:11 pm

This blog was crying wolf a decade too soon.

Lots of bisons left a good fortune on the table staying away from “the edge” due to the premature rexit call.

The point is not to have a one-asset strategy (house only) but to enjoy a balanced and diversified financial life. That reduces risk and volatility while providing income and future financial security. Putting all your eggs in one basket is gambling. — Garth

I hear you.

In reality lots of bisons can’t have both in a meaningful way, as it was possible in the past. I still know “ordinary Canadians” who retired with a big house, big pension plan, big investment portfolio, kids raised, graduated without student loan debt – on a single salary.

Bisons today hardly ever don’t make enough money to have it the same way – despite all the great supposed progress of the past decades, which probably promised a better life, after all, who would have voted for plans for worst than before life?

So bisons now make a decision and most of them pick the more traditional asset, which allows them them leverage more with limited resources.

There is a correlation between the real estate bubble and bisons not having enough money to invest in both real estate (aka owning a home) and a meaningful diversified portfolio.

Bisons seem to be forced to one-asset strategy: either real estate OR diversified portfolio.

For bisons today to pay rent, child care, maybe student loan and put together $150K portfolio when someone can start managing it for them is a much longer plan than it used to be in the past.

And then in their mind they are still “one-asset” investors (even if that “one asset” is a diversified collection), “living for the future” when the diversified portfolio eventually builds up slowly, probably by the time of retirement, while they have lived life as “renters”, both metaphorically and literally.

It’s not that you can’t do that. The entire life is “rent”, after all.

Maybe that’s the powerful magic of ownership.
It gives the illusion of immortality until the “rent” runs out.

#56 GFC v2.0 on 04.25.17 at 7:58 pm

#16 GTA girl on 04.25.17 at 6:13 pm

Excellent post, from someone in the know.

#57 Mark on 04.25.17 at 7:59 pm

“# 1 Mark – if Canadians have no money to spend because they’re either out of work, or working with stagnant incomes, then how can you expect the TSX to rise? “

That’s simple. Very little of the TSX index is actually allocated to firms that have anything to do with consumer consumption.

As for the banks, the lynchpin there is whether the CMHC will pay on the subprime mortgage insurance they wrote or not, in full, in a timely fashion as they are contractually obligated. If they don’t, then the banks are in a world of trouble. But the current modelling assumption is that the CMHC pays in full for all claims, and that the CMHC is appropriately supported/bailed-out by the Government of Canada. Tinker with that assumption, and of course, its a systemic meltdown for the Canadian economy. I like to think that it won’t be a doomsday scenario, but its certainly a possibility.

#58 Grantmi on 04.25.17 at 7:59 pm

#39 Gregory Jones on 04.25.17 at 7:36 pm
Garth, Why was WFT and Canfor soaring today after 20% Tarriffs on their products?

The market expected worse. — Garth

or short covering!

#59 Bezengy on 04.25.17 at 7:59 pm

Imaging paying $5000 per year property tax for a house worth $250k. in a small northern town and then have to watch John Tory beg for more provincial money when every homeowner inToronto lives in a million dollar house. Toronto needs a 100 percent tax increase, and while I’m on the topic of Toronto being subsidized by the rest of the province, why are there 80000 government assisted rentals in TO if Toronto is indeed this world class city? There are less expensive apartments in this province after all.

#60 Leeman on 04.25.17 at 8:04 pm

The TULIP MANIA Bubble of 1637.
The Toronto Housing Bubble of 2017.

Both will be remember for history to come.

#61 Ron on 04.25.17 at 8:09 pm

#30 Wrk.dover on 04.25.17 at 7:14 pm
I guess the moisters you speak of, never heard Billy Joel sing ” I’m Moving Out ” back in ’78.

I did, bought the album and dropped out, 1000 miles clear of the GTA .

—————————————–

Who needs a house out in Etobicoke?

Is that all you get for your money?

#62 calgaryPhantom on 04.25.17 at 8:12 pm

#18 DaleFromCalgary on 04.25.17 at 6:18 pm

———————–

I am experiencing the same thing. Been trying to buy a house and offered on a couple of detached houses in Dalhousie, 3% over 2016 city assessed value. Both offers got declined. Apparently people are willing to pay 10-15% over city assessed values.

#63 Dominoes Lining Up on 04.25.17 at 8:13 pm

#52 Shirtless Tuesday’s said:

Last week the Barrie Examiner wrote that 10% of Barrie homeowners are behind on their property taxes. The City is dealing with a shortfall of $15 Million in unpaid property taxes – though crickets from the masses!! If this isn’t the canary in the coal mine taking its last breath I don’t know what other telling sign that things may get ugly very quickly.
—————————————————————-

I reported on this phenomenon also in February:

“I mentioned here two weeks ago another canary chirping loudly in the coalmine:

In the GTA municipalities, property tax delinquencies are spiking dramatically.

The number of property tax accounts currently in arrears or collections has spiked dramatically over the last four months. Those in ‘pre-collections’ status in terms of non-payment for months is also dramatically larger than one year ago.

When people have “invested” $500,000 in a condo or $900,000 in a slanty semi to rent out, and cannot come up with a $500 tax payment installment, there is trouble brewing.

Most GTA municipalities start collecting taxes in March or April. They are girding for a serious shortfall this year, hence why politicians like John Tory are starting to seriously sweat how they can afford local costs now that road tolls appear to have been killed.

Most of the delinquent accounts relate to multiple property owners, mostly of condos, but all categories are rising.

Most cities are trying to keep a lid on this news, but are freaking out behind closed doors.

I consider my sources of information about this trustworthy and impeccable, people who have worked in this area for many years.They are saying this is worse than the start of the meltdown in the 1990s.

Look out below…….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gq_bjaI0NTo

———————————————-

My contact dealing with property taxes in the GTA say this has only ramped up the last two months. Arrears accounts are increasing by over 20% so far this year, as well as accounts going to collections.

Most of the account holders in trouble have multiple condos. But the number of detached homeowners getting into trouble is also at levels not seen since the 1990s.

The lineups at the tax counters are long lately with lots of desperate people seeking property tax relief or payment arrangements as the big bills get produced for the spring season.

A true warning sign of how fragile the GTA real estate economy really is.

#64 protea on 04.25.17 at 8:17 pm

I know you get tired and frustrated about writing about the real estate fiasco we have in GTA & YVR but I always enjoy reading about how stupidity prevails amongst my fellow citizens. I have trouble convincing my own daughter !
Anyway I am happy about the latest TRump manouvere with soft wood lumber. He has sized up T2 and figures he is easy prey !! We are in big trouble on that front T2 is actually terrified of the idiot Trump but won’t be able to challenge him successfully!

#65 GFC v2.0 on 04.25.17 at 8:22 pm

#23 GTA girl on 04.25.17 at 6:29 pm
“…..They demanded to know why if they paid a premium to have the prestige name of Kleinburg, why didn’t they get the postal code?….”
______________________________________

Pricless. You can’t make this stuff up.

#66 dr. talc on 04.25.17 at 8:25 pm

This video refutes everything written here about ‘wrinklies’ and Hamilton

https://vimeo.com/214336870

Tim Tickner @ BAR ON LOCKE. Improvised Chill set for your dining and dancing pleasure.

#67 the Jaguar on 04.25.17 at 8:26 pm

I just want to thank Fishman for posting yesterday (#91). He’s a real favourite of mine. And where is Aggregator these days? I used to like to read his posts, too.

#68 Condo's Set to CRASH! on 04.25.17 at 8:30 pm

Condo’s are popping up everyday and are being left UNSOLD. No one wants to buy cash flow negative condo’s and it’s getting ugly out there.

#69 ColinColin on 04.25.17 at 8:34 pm

In the past two weeks condo’s in Vancouver priced under $750K have gone crazy (possibly because of C.C.’s no interest $50K scheme or maybe something else…).

Just put an at ask offer on a place on the east side listed at $700K – sold next day with multiples for over $800K.
Assessed 2015 at $500K and 2016 at $670K.
It’s the wild west again in some parts of Vancouver. My guess is double digit increase since the start of March – though it was deadsville all winter. It’s pretty scary times over here.

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.25.17 at 8:36 pm

@#53 GFC…
“#1 Mark on 04.25.17 at 5:00 pm
“…..What is becoming increasingly clear is the need to cut the BoC policy rate in response to falling housing prices……”
_____________________________________

I thought April Fools was 24 days ago.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Now THAT was funny!

#71 GFC v2.0 on 04.25.17 at 8:38 pm

#8 Drill Baby Drill on 04.25.17 at 5:41 pm
“…..Canada has always won in the WTO courts……..”
___________________________

You’re forgetting that Trump has repeatedly demonstrated he has absolutely no respect for his own courts, much less someone elses’s (kind of like our own former Prime Minister). Why let a little democracy interfere with twisted ideology?

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.25.17 at 8:40 pm

@#64 Proteen
“T2 is actually terrified of the idiot Trump but won’t be able to challenge him successfully!”
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Pray tell.
HOW would T2 “challenge” Trump?
75% of our trade heads south into the US…….
Not much room to manouvre there.
Not like “Deficit Budget” Canada can afford to go head to head with its main trading partner…..

And, the scarey thing is…..Trump knows it……

#73 GFD on 04.25.17 at 8:43 pm

No stumpage fees if you take someones timber of their land. Trump thinks it is dumping because he does not understand the way our government moves from one category to another. The 3 arm band . . . the socialist band, the community band and the capitalist band. They put one on to fill a need for their own personal betterment whenever it pleases them. Not for the interest of the people of Canada.

Remember in all of this, Trump is fuxxing his own people, he is making them pay higher costs for wood than they have been paying. He is also mistaken in that it allows Americans to buy cheaper than to cut their own and lessen inventory of healthy trees. What he claims is not dumping, its good management of a natural resource.

Same with the Tar Sands, they got to buy Canadian oil at 29 bucks a barrel when oil was selling at a 100 buck a barrel and all that while save theirs which now has America controlling the worlds inventory of it. Together Canada and the US hold more known oil reserves than every other country in the world put together.

We don’t sell wood at cost so loggers can cut trees!!! Trump feels it’s dumping for the government that takes our trees for cheap from the people who owned the land, pay minimal stumpage to those citizens so the government can pocket money. . . . for the BNA states all natural resources on the ground or below belongs to the government. The US has been getting a friking deal. Canada should be happy someone in the US is upsetting the apple cart, and maybe now the owners of that land and those trees get paid a fair market stump fee.

Another example is the fracking in AB. where the government negotiates a contract with an American companies to frack in AB. The land is owned by a citizens so they get nothing for the product. What do get from our government is a few pennies for having the US company coming on their property with authority of our government for the right to take the oil and ruin the grassing land of the the Canadian citizens all for $135 bucks per thousands of acres. Oh yea, remember the government took the profits on that natural gas and the Canadian who owns the land goes broke for the grassing land no longer is fertile for feed. Maybe we should spell a rest for Trump and let him come here to Canada and see what he thinks he is talking about……

Our government has allowed Americans to fxxk us from day one. Americans have sure been smiling, getting our oil for peanuts on the dollar for all these years. They had not looked for oil or natural gas for 35 years until Chenney realized it was time to go hunting again for that black gold.

They have always knew where a lot was, the shocking part is they found XXX times more than they thought was there. Texas and Oklahoma never figured until new technology surfaced a decade ago that more oil is available deep than the first wave of surface oil that they new was running thin. These guys were drilling in the Tetons in the 60’s in 2 National Parks. That is against the law so what did they do this last decade … go check on their holes in Alaska that they drilled in the 70’s and then drilled more holes.

Again, Trump is wrong. Canada was not dumping, they the government was just playing their roll as God within this country. The vast amount of our timber is owned by American firms. Forever we have had Americans cut our trees, mill our tress and take the finished wood to the US to make things to sell with our timber. As a finished product they would sell it right back to us. This has been going on forever. Ever since Rockefeller found the western mountains. Hence our minimal ability to manufacture. So how are we dumping when we buy the finished wood products made with our wood back again at higher prices.

The first timber stand that was sold in North America was to Rockefeller, he bought from the Canadian government the whole island of Vancouver Island…. Thank god we took that deal back.

How are we dumping when our governments are run by stupid individuals who can’t even get socialism right…..?

#74 Ronaldo on 04.25.17 at 8:47 pm

#8 Drill Baby Drill on 04.25.17 at 5:41 pm

This Softwood lumber battle has been going on since I was a teenager. I am now 62yrs. Canada has always won in the WTO courts. It is the dairy and auto pact NAFTA components that is really worrisome.
————————————————————–
Yes it has, and agree that the worrisome part would be for the dairy farmers. From the looks of stock price closings today for Canfor and West Fraser up 7.87 and 8.77%, it doesn’t appear that the threat of tariffs on lumber is affecting them negatively. With our dollar on the decline and lumber priced in USD that should be good for our producers even with a tariff imposed. Those who will be affected the most will be the buyers in the U.S. who will be paying more for our lumber and affect their housing costs. Our companies have had a pretty good run over the past many years and I don’t think they’ve been hurting that bad.

#75 Smoking Man on 04.25.17 at 9:03 pm

If HAM has infact been driving Toronto prices.

We should see massive spikes outside the boundaries of the golden shoe. I’m watching Windsor

If you don’t see it. Then HAM was just spam in a can.

#76 Leo Trollstoy on 04.25.17 at 9:05 pm

In the coming financial apocalypse, forget gold, shotguns and cat food. Here are guaranteed jobs in IT. $$$

https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurencebradford/2017/04/25/14-in-demand-tech-jobs-employers-are-struggling-to-fill/

#77 Cici on 04.25.17 at 9:07 pm

What’s happening on the 13th? Next US federal reserve rate announcement? Or NAFTA renegotiation announcement?

#78 Mattl on 04.25.17 at 9:08 pm

Ya no foreign money here involved. Must be moisters with 1% income and 500k down buying these places. Just regular old Canadians with 300k incomes snatching these places up. Can’t be foreign dudes thats racist.

Seriously, if not foreign money who has the income to buy these places? Lets assume bank of mom and dad pull out 500k for little Johhny how does he qualify for the income requirments?

Whatever led you to conclude these are starter homes? Dial back the envy, jealousy and xenophobia, dude. — Garth

#79 Leo Trollstoy on 04.25.17 at 9:09 pm

In fact, the Canadian banks might be in trouble here. Banks gave people with barely a pulse, a big fat mortgage. Many Canadians might foreclose. What do you think will happen to the bank’s common share dividends?

Wrong.

Banks will be fine.

CMHC removes their riskiest loans

#80 bigtowne on 04.25.17 at 9:12 pm

In the mood for a new Ford last week and the first question from my sales guy before “How are you, dear” was: what do you want for your monthly payment? and the ignorant; creepy; arrogant; lack of manners; beligerent; stone age tone deaf dork head was just starting.

I have bought 3 Fords and one leased Ford in the last fifteen years and I am treated like a “douche bag”. Never, never, never mark my words will I buy a Ford in my breathing life.

The real stink bomb hit me like a giant beer fart: HE had the temerity to request me to sign a waiver for a “deductible of $5,000” in case of damage during the test.

Yes, my friends maybe UBER does deserve a visit.

#81 Walter Safety on 04.25.17 at 9:13 pm

So T2 felt the need to tell how daddy kept brother Sasha free of a criminal record for possessing Pot. Didn’t cross his mind that he was confirming the two tier legal system for the 1% .
Pierre probably only had to make one phone call.

#82 akashic records on 04.25.17 at 9:19 pm

Le Pen’s opponent is a strange fellow.

39-year-old Emmanuel Macron has been a philosophy student, an investment banker, and a minister of economy.

According to FT:

“The graduate of ENA, the elite school that breeds France’s future leaders, came recommended by powerful alumni of the institution, including François Henrot, a longtime Rothschild partner. But young bankers were not so impressed. “He was the guy who would constantly say ‘thank you’,” a former colleague said. “He didn’t know what ebitda [earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation] was. ”

Yet, he was heavily promoted:

“On the Atos deal, Mr Macron “had a fairly junior role at the time — he would be asked to redo the financial models on Excel, the basics,” recalled an adviser. But a few days after the deal was announced, Mr Macron was made a partner. A few months later, he stunned colleagues and rivals by winning a role in Nestlé’s purchase of Pfizer’s infant food operations.”

He was raised in a non-religious family, he was baptized a Roman Catholic at his own request at age 12.

At 15, he decided to seduce his high school teacher who was 24 years older and married with three children.

From Slate:

“At 39, Emmanuel Macron would be France’s youngest-ever president. His wife, Brigitte Trogneux, just turned 64. The two met when Macron was 15 years old; Trogneux was his high-school drama teacher. After putting off the young Macron’s advances for a while, Trogneux eventually divorced her husband—the father of her three children—and moved to Paris to be with Macron, who’d left his hometown to finish high school in the capital city. They married more than a decade after meeting, in 2007.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-25/meet-real-emmanuel-macron-consummate-banker-puppet-bizarre-elitist-creation

#83 Smoking Man on 04.25.17 at 9:26 pm

Gartho are Ryan and Doug coming to the historic mut meet up May 13. I would like to meet my future portfolio managers.

I’m going to be running a bit late. High Noon is now 1:30 ish. But I’ll be there.

#84 cramar on 04.25.17 at 9:34 pm

Posted the following a week ago:

#123 cramar on 04.18.17 at 8:19 am

Neighbour that moved from Waterloo last year had family down for Easter weekend. Son-in-law’s parents from Fort Erie loved it so much here in Leamington that they want to sell and move immediately. Actively house hunting. Looking at a couple of good ones in the $220k range.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/04/17/oops-2/

===================

UPDATE: Ironically, the day after the people went home and the day I posted the above, a house up the street went on sale. Decent bungalow with attached garage, and a great sunroom. The agent priced it low at $189,900 to generate a bidding war. The in-laws above said they were coming down on Thursday to buy—not look at, but buy! Thursday there were already 2 offers on the house when they arrived and they put in an offer at $201k. Friday they were told it’s theirs! Interesting that they just came down to visit for the Easter weekend, not realizing that a week later they would own a house here and be moving.

Met the new in-law owners last Sunday and lo-and-behold they are originally from Kitchener! That makes at least 5 that I know of on this block. All moved from K-W to downsize cheaply. When will the masses catch on?

Although prices are different, RE seems to be hot all over Ontario, with sales above list. I guess we can thank Toronto.

#85 Mark on 04.25.17 at 9:36 pm

“Most of the account holders in trouble have multiple condos. But the number of detached homeowners getting into trouble is also at levels not seen since the 1990s.”

Sounds about right. With no RE appreciation since 2013 in the GTA (and the GVR) on individual identical housing units, it was bound to happen as HELOC’s and equity refinances can only carry a speculator so far. With the negative or minimal net cashflow on units, many thought they could just serially refinance into higher equity valuations to pay their bills.

Without higher prices, and without positive cashflow, the speculators are screwed.

Who knows, after the crash, we might actually see some actual Chinese money in Canada, buying up property. Because there sure as heck isn’t any right now. The state of the Canadian dollar, the rampant credit expansion at the banks, etc. makes this abundantly clear.

guaranteed jobs in IT

More propaganda in advance of Trump and Congress’s yearly deliberations on immigration reform. There is no such thing as a ‘guaranteed job’ in IT, and even minimally advertised IT jobs receive large numbers of highly qualified applicants.

Both offers got declined. Apparently people are willing to pay 10-15% over city assessed values.

Or the sellers are just plain and downright delusional. Kind of like those Toronto people who think they’ll get 30% more for their house YoY not realizing that all of the alleged ‘gains’ were due to mix changes, and not due to appreciation on individual units.

#86 Smoking Man on 04.25.17 at 9:36 pm

77 Cici on 04.25.17 at 9:07 pm
What’s happening on the 13th? Next US federal reserve rate announcement? Or NAFTA renegotiation announcement?
….

Blog dog meet up at the General Store in Belfountain. 1:30pm
Do you have ADHD or something like that. Pay attention woman.

#87 Duifus on 04.25.17 at 9:37 pm

Would it be fair to say that governments have mofoed the economy? Nicely done.

#88 GFD on 04.25.17 at 9:37 pm

http://projects.thestar.com/panama-papers/canada-is-the-worlds-newest-tax-haven/

. . . . . there’s an open protocol on real estate in Canada, where would all money come and go to otherwise. It seems the entire world is washing money here.

#89 45north on 04.25.17 at 9:46 pm

Governments are seeking ways of ‘cooling off’ the market and, if they succeed, the landing will not be soft.

Wynne could have simply blamed the Federal Government. could’a should’a

Made for TV: Having the advantage being able to view and analyze the mounds of evidence that lead to the US housing market collapse in 2008/09, why is the Canadian government afraid to making the tough decisions?

as the US housing market collapsed the US Fed lowered interest rates from 5% to 0%. Canada followed. In other words what propped up the US market kept us from collapse. The Canadian housing market seemed to magically float on air. Now the US Fed is raising interest rates and Canada is following but the Canadian housing market is collapsing. As far as the Canadian Federal Government being afraid, it totally is. I mean Justin Trudeau would have to explain that tough economic measures are necessary. I just don’t think he ever sees himself giving such a talk.

Shirtless and Dominoes: In the GTA municipalities, property tax delinquencies are spiking dramatically.

that got my attention

#90 Newbie on 04.25.17 at 9:47 pm

What’s the best way to short, seeing the Big Canadian Bubble Crash coming soon?

#91 Wrk.dover on 04.25.17 at 9:52 pm

When the crown will let me clear an acre for the same joke of a stumpage price the big boys pay, I won’t call it a subsidy. The big mills pay private landowners a whole heck of a lot more on the right coast.

Why let the USA get duty instead of BC getting the same cash as fair market value?

Beats me too.

#92 slick on 04.25.17 at 9:59 pm

today is april 25th the perfect date;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3w0eACxtoc

#93 ronh on 04.25.17 at 9:59 pm

#44 Barb

But I still wouldn’t drink American milk, or eat their cheese.
Way too many hormones and antibiotics.
Doesn’t even taste like milk.

Thank your marketing board you dont have to.

#94 Doug in London on 04.25.17 at 10:00 pm

Well, let’s look on the bright side here. In Garth’s post Oops, dated April 17, he mentioned a seller named Derek who sold a house and shortly after the buyer got cold feet and wanted to back out. If Derek stood firm and said no, the sale contract is binding, there’s still hope for the regretting seller. If the market is still going crazy this buyer could still get out and break even (after sales commission) by selling to an even greater fool!

#95 JSS on 04.25.17 at 10:02 pm

@Mark

Although the Canadian banks have CMHC as a so called backstop, there is a chance that the Feds say “sorry guys, you banks will have to absorb a portion of the risk”. This is where a bank (or more) could fail, thus causing a domino effect on the economy. Think pension plans, mutual funds, etc. Who rely on bank dividends. It’s not just houses insured by CMHC. It’s also the homeowners who have some equity but are unable to pay the mortgage at a higher interest rate.

There is only so much bad debt that the Feds will be able to absorb.

#96 Smoking Man on 04.25.17 at 10:07 pm

I can’t get this song out of my head.

James has to be scratching his head. No support for his ice pic disrespect to Smoking Mans Right eyeball.

https://youtu.be/tAGnKpE4NCI

Great writers got to start somewhere.

#97 GFD on 04.25.17 at 10:08 pm

#89 45north on 04.25.17 at 9:46 pm
. . . . . why is the Canadian government afraid to making the tough decisions?

They have, they pimped Canadian banks to lauder money. They gave you houses and weed to keep you busy to service debt and stoned you stupid, apparently beer wasn’t working anymore.

#98 ANON on 04.25.17 at 10:11 pm

Actually, it’s scary.

I think 2008 since September up until the beginning-middle of 2009 was really scary, then some flash crash moments to keep you on the edge, then silence.
Now? It’s funny, in a “whistle past the graveyard, and make peace with your maker” kind of way. On the bright side, we got nine more years out of it, eh?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuEdU_lrtZk

#99 Daniel on 04.25.17 at 10:13 pm

My father bought a 65w x 220d ravine lot in Kleinburg in 2001 for $200k. Built himself a nice house for cheap and I now dwell the basement.

A tear down backing onto islington say 45wx150d now costs about $1.4M.

what a joke.

#100 Pete from St. Cesaire on 04.25.17 at 10:15 pm

They demanded to know why if they paid a premium to have the prestige name of Kleinburg, why didn’t they get the postal code?
——————————————————
Common behaviour from the pretenders. An RE agent told me about a deal he was about to close on a beautiful home down North Hatley way, but at the signing the buyers found out that the North Hatley town line ended at their property line and technically the house was in the neighbouring township. For this reason they refused to make the purchase.

#101 Bank of Millenial on 04.25.17 at 10:17 pm

It truly is amazing to see all the fiscal changes that have occurred since 2008. So many changes to CMHC mortgage rules..

Only 9 years ago CMHC use to insure 40 year amortizations and 100% financing deals.

Put in all the fiscal controls you want, people with access to cheap cash are still going to buy and the market will essentially run over the cliff and hover in mid-air for awhile. Just wait until the monetary side start moving in earnest.. that is when this shindig hits a wall.

#102 Smoking Man on 04.25.17 at 10:28 pm

When you’re naked and afraid . Clueless. Even I’m not perfect.

This song works for me.

https://youtu.be/1UUYjd2rjsE

#103 GFD on 04.25.17 at 10:51 pm

What’s the matter, Garth? Don’t you like South Park irony?

#104 Manitoba Whale on 04.25.17 at 11:11 pm

#59 Bezengy on 04.25.17 at 7:59 pm
Imaging paying $5000 per year property tax for a house worth $250k. in a small northern town and then have to watch John Tory beg for more provincial money when every homeowner inToronto lives in a million dollar house….
****
I have been wondering about this for a while. If there is 500,000 homes in the GTA, an additional $1000 per annum per home (for example) would bring to the city/GTA coffers a cool $ 0.5 billion each and every year.
Why is this never an option? I know people who pay $10,000 in property taxes for a fancy McMansion here in the tundra.
Please enlighten me why.

#105 Doug t on 04.25.17 at 11:12 pm

I have a 22yr old son – punk/anarchist/smart/well read for his age – asks me what the deal is with all this insane constant news about “real estate” in this country – I tell him I can’t really explain it – I tell him I’m not sure why there is this frenzy at this specific time in this country – then he asks me if I have ever heard the term “que sera sera” – yup

#106 Self Directed on 04.25.17 at 11:13 pm

#60 Leeman on 04.25.17 at 8:04 pm

The TULIP MANIA Bubble of 1637.
The Toronto Housing Bubble of 2017.

Both will be remember for history to come.
………………
The bubble of 2017? what about the bubble of 2016? 2015? 2014?

What about the CDN correction in 2009? Does anyone ever talk about that? What correction? (yeah, there was one)

A bubble is never remembered until it actually bursts in some significant way. Until then, there is no bubble. Case in point… you never hear anyone sitting around talking about “those crazy housing prices back in 2012.”

#107 Manitoba Whale on 04.25.17 at 11:17 pm

#64 protea on 04.25.17 at 8:17 pm
Anyway I am happy about the latest TRump manouvere with soft wood lumber. He has sized up T2 and figures he is easy prey !!
****
That’s odd.
I am the opposite of happy.

#108 Realtor Farts on 04.25.17 at 11:32 pm

DELETED

#109 Mark on 04.25.17 at 11:45 pm

“Although the Canadian banks have CMHC as a so called backstop, there is a chance that the Feds say “sorry guys, you banks will have to absorb a portion of the risk”. This is where a bank (or more) could fail, thus causing a domino effect on the economy. Think pension plans, mutual funds, etc. Who rely on bank dividends. It’s not just houses insured by CMHC. It’s also the homeowners who have some equity but are unable to pay the mortgage at a higher interest rate. “

Yes, I believe the outcome will be somewhere between “giving the entire federal treasury to the banks and adding $300B to the national debt” and “let the banks completely collapse as the CMHC runs out of money and stops paying insurance claims”.

A bank surtax seems likely. Or some sort of windfall profit tax on the banks. To prevent them from unduly benefitting from redeeming CMHC subprime mortgage insurance at full value in an environment where the underlying collateral may have lost half or more of its value.

At any rate, it does seem that the housing downturn will have some pretty drastic systemic outcomes. I would hate to be invested in any sector of Canada’s economy that is dependent on HELOC-fuelled discretionary spending. Big name borrowers not leveraged to the housing sector should enjoy some nice upside as their borrowing costs plummet though.

#110 Bottoms_Up on 04.25.17 at 11:47 pm

Someone should do an exit interview with all those buying brand new $2 million dollar homes.
Ask: where are you getting the downpayment
And: do you plan to live in the home

#111 Bottoms_Up on 04.25.17 at 11:52 pm

#93 ronh on 04.25.17 at 9:59 pm
————————–
Since this whole dairy fiasco, I’ve noticed Canadian milk has started to taste better. Anyone else???

#112 IHCTD9 on 04.25.17 at 11:55 pm

When I combine all the economic forces that make up a working stiff’s financial destiny in Ontario, it becomes clear that it is your mortgage payment makes you or breaks you. Small starter homes out my way will soak you for about 650.00/month, while a rotted knob and tube museum in the GTA will absorb $3500 of your after tax dollars.

The GTA falls well short of making up that kind of difference on the wage front, virtually guaranteeing that the folks who need to save and invest the most, will be unable to do so if home owners.

25 years from now, your steaming crap pile mildew vulcanized insect conservatory in the GTA will need to sell for 3 times what you originally paid for it for you to walk away whole after saving zilch for 2.5 decades. Of course, then you’ll need somewhere to live… Just not going to work out well no matter how you slice it.

#113 april on 04.25.17 at 11:57 pm

Canadian Realty consultant Ross Kay, says” listen up BC, the HPI is going to plummet over the next 3 months.”

#114 Bottoms_Up on 04.26.17 at 12:04 am

#62 calgaryPhantom on 04.25.17 at 8:12 pm
———————–
City assessed value is not market value. In some cities you pay more, in some, less.

#115 Original dave on 04.26.17 at 12:07 am

“HCG marked the top of the market. Write it down.”- Marc Cohodes

#116 Fox Trot on 04.26.17 at 12:31 am

#80 bigtowne on 04.25.17 at 9:12 pm

Which Ford dealership was this?

#117 Frito on 04.26.17 at 12:45 am

What’s up with the 5 cheques “minimum” ?

#118 Boots on the Ground on 04.26.17 at 12:48 am

#67 the Jaguar on 04.25.17 at 8:26 pm

I just want to thank Fishman for posting yesterday (#91). He’s a real favourite of mine. And where is Aggregator these days? I used to like to read his posts, too.
————————————————————-
I gotta second that motion, the Jag. Kudos to #91 Fishman, I always enjoy your posts as well but never make time to comment myself.

Since I’m here:
Finally got my copy of FED UP by Danielle Dimartino Booth. A few chapters in. Highly recommend so far. Book came out mid February. Excellent timing for its release, IMHO. I was glad to notice that since I ordered it its now topped the list at #1 in Money/Finance/Econ on Amazon-

https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1493180762&sr=8-1&keywords=fed+up+book

“A Federal Reserve insider pulls back the curtain on the secretive institution that controls America’s economy

After correctly predicting the housing crash of 2008 and quitting her high-ranking Wall Street job, Danielle DiMartino Booth was surprised to find herself recruited as an analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, one of the regional centers of our complicated and widely misunderstood Federal Reserve System. She was shocked to discover just how much tunnel vision, arrogance, liberal dogma, and abuse of power drove the core policies of the Fed.

DiMartino Booth found a cabal of unelected academics who made decisions without the slightest understanding of the real world, just a slavish devo­tion to their theoretical models. Over the next nine years, she and her boss, Richard Fisher, tried to speak up about the dangers of Fed policies such as quanti­tative easing and deeply depressed interest rates. But as she puts it, “In a world rendered unsafe by banks that were too big to fail, we came to understand that the Fed was simply too big to fight.”

#119 Another Albertan on 04.26.17 at 12:50 am

It’s strange times, indeed.

Since I started counting at the end of June 2015, I know 47 couples in Calgary who have separated and/or divorced. The general comment is that the velocity of money during the boom times sustained relationships. Once the money slowed down or stopped, these unions quickly crumbled. The practitioners of family law are doing brisk business though!

For anyone who believes the energy sector has turned the corner, please set me up with your dealer. You are smoking some excellent product. While some drilling and service companies may be doing better recently, the engineering ecosystem that supports the owner-operator companies is suffering horrifically. Few are doing well and most are barely keeping the lights on. Many people do not understand that the engineers need to be designing in order for equipment to be subsequently ordered and manufactured before it is packaged and then installed on a facility that has undergone construction. The lead-lag effect is massive. Everyone else going on in the field has largely been the minimum amount of operational maintenance required to keep things running. The only significant bright lights involves the gas-related drilling and infrastructure from Fox Creek through to NE BC… and that isn’t enough to put everyone back to work.

#18 Dale –

I live near Altadore. I am consistently shaking my head at the houses that are still being built in that neighbourhood. A colleague has a 2010/11 vintage infill near 50th Avenue SW. I am appalled at the build quality of what was notionally a $1M house. It’s just a more civilized veneer on particle board and glue. As I left, the door knob came off in my hand. Ridiculous.

I also especially like the washboard effect on all the streets and avenues, due to the hundreds of cuts-and-fills that have occurred to tie in the water and waste utilities. The roadways are a massive future liability.

I really don’t get who is affording these places that are running $1.3M+.

Everyone else’s mileage may vary.

#120 Boots on the Ground on 04.26.17 at 12:57 am

http://www.socionomics.net/2016/07/why-zika-why-now-ask-the-brazilian-stock-market/

Everything’s holistic I guess even stocks and zika are connected sheesh.

#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.26.17 at 12:58 am

Talking about buffalos:
President Grant, unable to defeat the Crazy Horse and Sitting Bull through military means, ordered to destroy their lively hood the Buffalos.
He offered a bounty on every buffalo killed.
The end result: 60 million buffalos killed.
Driven to extinction.
Buffalo Bill himself killed more than 20 thousand.
Pretty sickening if you think about it.

#122 Rentin on 04.26.17 at 1:00 am

Garth is correct that having bought a house you could barely afford in the last 10 years was very risky move. A one asset strategy isn’t the safest move.

However, with the risk of marginal gains or loss eliminated ie behind us, and replaced with a real massive gain (tax free to boot), the risk is as always going forward.

TAKE THE WIN if you have it. It will be a long time before that opportunity repeats itself. There are three directions going forward:

1. Prices may just go sideways until the 5% trend line is met again – most likely

2. They may plunge – somewhat likely

3. They may continue to rise at the same rate as the last ten years – not likely.

Either way, the outlook on returns in RE going forward are way to poor to compensate for the risk.

Being a greater fool is okay if you can find the next one to sell too. Otherwise, you become the fool.

#123 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.26.17 at 1:03 am

Le Pen’s opponent is a strange fellow.

39-year-old Emmanuel Macron has been a philosophy student, an investment banker, and a minister of economy.

According to FT:

“The graduate of ENA, the elite school that breeds France’s future leaders, came recommended by powerful alumni of the institution, including François Henrot, a longtime Rothschild partner. But young bankers were not so impressed. “He was the guy who would constantly say ‘thank you’,” a former colleague said. “He didn’t know what ebitda [earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation] was. ”

Yet, he was heavily promoted:

“On the Atos deal, Mr Macron “had a fairly junior role at the time — he would be asked to redo the financial models on Excel, the basics,” recalled an adviser. But a few days after the deal was announced, Mr Macron was made a partner. A few months later, he stunned colleagues and rivals by winning a role in Nestlé’s purchase of Pfizer’s infant food operations.”

He was raised in a non-religious family, he was baptized a Roman Catholic at his own request at age 12.

At 15, he decided to seduce his high school teacher who was 24 years older and married with three children.

From Slate:

“At 39, Emmanuel Macron would be France’s youngest-ever president. His wife, Brigitte Trogneux, just turned 64. The two met when Macron was 15 years old; Trogneux was his high-school drama teacher. After putting off the young Macron’s advances for a while, Trogneux eventually divorced her husband—the father of her three children—and moved to Paris to be with Macron, who’d left his hometown to finish high school in the capital city. They married more than a decade after meeting, in 2007.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-25/meet-real-emmanuel-macron-consummate-banker-puppet-bizarre-elitist-creation
——————-
That’s why I like EU politics.
Colorful politicians.
Unlike selfie JT and bimbo Kristy.

#124 Rondel on 04.26.17 at 1:09 am

On taxes in Canada:
Just saw this report that reveals the sham of the “carbon tax.” The little people get hit with it while industry pumps out way more methane than they thought. There will be much more of this to come:

http://globalnews.ca/news/3404680/exclusive-scientists-discover-high-volume-of-methane-emissions-from-b-c-oil-and-gas-facilities/

#125 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.26.17 at 1:09 am

#80 bigtowne on 04.25.17 at 9:12 pm
In the mood for a new Ford last week and the first question from my sales guy before “How are you, dear” was: what do you want for your monthly payment? and the ignorant; creepy; arrogant; lack of manners; beligerent; stone age tone deaf dork head was just starting.

I have bought 3 Fords and one leased Ford in the last fifteen years and I am treated like a “douche bag”. Never, never, never mark my words will I buy a Ford in my breathing life.

The real stink bomb hit me like a giant beer fart: HE had the temerity to request me to sign a waiver for a “deductible of $5,000” in case of damage during the test.

Yes, my friends maybe UBER does deserve a visit.
—————-
My friend, that’s why I only buy BMW.
You get a car that lasts 15 Years and you get treated like a king.
Never, ever will buy North American crap.

#126 paulo on 04.26.17 at 1:23 am

whats the chance that “wild Bill” will show some stones and swing the big specker hammer?
is there a possibility that Wynn might deploy the mother of all speculator bombs in the provincial budget?

for those to young to remember, a speculation tax on multiple home owners and short term flippers that was a upfront 50% tax with the remaining 50% taxed as a capitol gain at your marginal tax rate. this one killed a out of control real estate market a few decades ago.

what the heck whats old is new maybe the politicos should pull the trigger

#127 Ch on 04.26.17 at 1:27 am

Not one mention of the softwood tarrif…..

We are truly on our own in BC.

#128 NoName on 04.26.17 at 1:30 am

Interesting read

….
It started in 2013, when Järlström’s wife was caught running a red light by a camera near their home. Järlström spent a year looking into the timing of yellow lights and red light camera statistics, and learned that cameras were catching people who were running yellow lights.

The original paper that determined yellow light timing, written in 1959, is too simplistic for the modern world, he said. And yet the original calculations in them are still used all around the world.
….

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/man-fined-dollar500-for-crime-of-writing-i-am-an-engineer-in-an-email-to-the-government

#129 Stock Picker on 04.26.17 at 3:02 am

Shocking …. and hilarious that you debt and deny rate junkies are signing up for life long slavery. Personally, I don’t owe a dime . I get to wake up every day
late….read all the international news with coffee…check how much cash flew into my acct overnight and the go for a swim, workout, sun tan .. wash repeat. A condo with an incredible river view is around 100k….no
property tax. The sun shines every day and living is cheap and easy. If you want to hand half your dough to Trudeau every month you’re just stupid and you don’t deserve this.

#130 Tony on 04.26.17 at 3:14 am

Re: #62 calgaryPhantom on 04.25.17 at 8:12 pm

Try offering fifty percent of the asking price for ten Calgary properties. I guarantee at least one will sell to you for half the list price on mls. In fact all of Alberta is in the same boat, pick any city in Alberta.

#131 Trumpocalypse2017 on 04.26.17 at 7:34 am

PRE-WAR BRIEFING TODAY IN THE ORANGE HOUSE

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/04/26/full-senate-heads-to-rare-classified-meeting-at-white-house-on-north-korea.html

Nukes by next week.

Are you prepared?

#132 cto on 04.26.17 at 7:35 am

CBC radio guest this morning praising Toronto as this new world class City that everyone wants to move to. however she did criticize public housing and infrastructure. She suggested the answer to the Cities finance problem in regards to public housing is to raid the CMHC fund! I guess she thinks we will never need to use it.
Garth, Dogs, what do you think of this???

#133 RMac on 04.26.17 at 7:50 am

Isn’t about simple economics and the sheer lack of supply? If people didn’t listen to Garth they would have made a fortune on housing. Will the freehold market crash in Toronto? Based on supply, likely not. Look at Vancouver, has it crashed? Garth feel free to comment.

I have never said not to hold real estate, but to do so in balance with other assets. If you have a one-asset strategy, then you’re gambling. The ‘fortune’ you’ve made (by sheer luck) in real estate is no fortune at all if not crystallized, which is why smart people should be doing exactly that. No asset class rises forever, and if all of your net worth remains in one place you’re a complete fool not to change that. Listen to me now, or regret it later. — Garth

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.17 at 8:19 am

@#119 A.A.
“Since I started counting at the end of June 2015, I know 47 couples in Calgary who have separated and/or divorced……”
__________________________________________

Sooo you’re a Divorce lawyer?

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.17 at 8:24 am

@#130 Trumpocalypse2017
“Nukes by next week.”
??????????????????????????????????????????????????

buck buck buck AAAAACK…..buck buck buck AAAAAACK

“The sky is falling. The sky is falling !

So after next week, next month, next year.
You’ll cut the Chicken Little schtick and rejoin planet earth?

#136 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.17 at 8:30 am

@#124 Ponzi P
“that’s why I only buy BMW.
You get a car that lasts 15 Years and you get treated like a king.
Never, ever will buy North American crap.”
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

I only buy Toyota. Cheaper than Beemers to buy and repair. Last one I owned for 20 years and sold it to a kid 5 years ago….he’s still driving it.
The one I have now should last me until 2035 and I’ll either be dead or chauffered around in a self driving electric Prius……..

#137 Julia on 04.26.17 at 8:31 am

#109 Mark

Correct me if I am wrong but the only scenario under which CMHC would pay out the entire $300B if insured loans would be if all the properties financed were to sell for $0 and they recover $0 from the borrowers.
Even if they buy all the mortgages from the banks they would still turn around and sell the properties plus go after the borrowers and the net impact would not be the entire $300B.

#138 traderJim on 04.26.17 at 8:40 am

#134 crowded

“@#130 Trumpocalypse2017
“Nukes by next week.”

I dunno man, he’s put a date on it now. I might prepare today just in case because no doubt North Korea aiming for NYC will no doubt miss and hit my little town instead.

I don’t like spam so I’m thinking of maybe stocking up on Doritos and bottles of vodka. Might move my TV to the basement so I can watch the end of the world from relative safety.

#139 traderJim on 04.26.17 at 8:45 am

Read an interesting interview with Charles Murray (yes THAT Charles Murray) about the ‘hollow elite’ that has formed in America. This was a particularly accurate comment I thought:

“I think Jonathan Haidt, the social psychologist was right. He had an interview a few weeks ago where he said the ‘Deplorables’ comment by Hillary Clinton changed the history of the world, and he may very well be right. That one comment by itself may have swung enough votes, it certainly was emblematic of the disdain with which the New Upper Class looks at mainstream Americans.

And mainstream America notices this… People will say: ‘You don’t understand. We don’t particularly like Donald Trump, we won’t defend his character. He is our murder weapon.'”

Sounds about right to me!

#140 TurnerNation on 04.26.17 at 9:05 am

Wondering when this pathetic weblog will publish more letters from its equally pathetic readers.

Let me pen one:

“Dear Gartho and Blog Dogs. I’m 35 yrs old, one child and another on the way. My wife works part-time and I earn $105,000 on a contract job. Our bank has approved us for a $750,000 mortgage and I’m looking to cash in my RRSPs (value $85,000) as a down payment for a 18 year old house in Pickering. Is this a wise move? We feel we must buy now or be priced out forever and wish to settle in our Forever Home so I can provide a good life for my family. Please assist.”

M41ON

#141 common sense on 04.26.17 at 9:07 am

Trump’s tax plan will be D.O.A. on arrival, US Gov’t shut down this weekend AND his wall? Highly unlikely.

Like the hot air in Trump, the USD and US markets will be deflating very soon……

#142 Leo Trollstoy on 04.26.17 at 9:10 am

Although the Canadian banks have CMHC as a so called backstop, there is a chance that the Feds say “sorry guys, you banks will have to absorb a portion of the risk”.

The Feds would be tied up in legal so long against the full weight of all the banks that this would never happen

#143 JD on 04.26.17 at 9:19 am

Question to the experts here.
“With the perceived positive outcome in French election, the S&P 500 broke above its short-term downtrend” how that is established? It it a fact that when S&P 500 shares trade transaction occur buyer or seller in mandatory fashion reports the reason for the transaction? Or this is all anecdotal reasons that investment analysts are labeling events with?
Thank you.

#144 Livin Large on 04.26.17 at 9:20 am

Ponzius, auto sales people basing their sales process on monthly payment started decades ago with the advent of consumer vehicle leasing.

I worked for a Ford dealership as financing manager in the mid to late 80s and it was starting to be drilled into the sales staff then. 80%+ of buyers financed back then and to try and minimize bank turndowns or horribly conditioned vehicle loan appaps, the sales pitch focussed first on selling something the buyer thought they could afford each month because that was how they weremgoing to end up paying for it. When more than half a sales persons “deals” were being declined at the financing process it only made sense not to beat your head against a wall half the time.

BTW, consumer level leasing (rather than business level leasing) has always been predicated on drastically lowering monthly payments because you’re only renting the car and paying on the depreciation of the principal. In consumer leasing it has always been about “payment”.

BTW, immediately before joining the Ford dealership in about 1984, I worked in consumer/corp credit with the bank that introduced consumer leasing in Canada.

#145 traderJim on 04.26.17 at 9:25 am

re: Macron

“At 15 he decided to seduce his 39 year old teacher”

Oh really? I guess older women in positions of power don’t seduce young boys, it’s always the male. Isn’t that sexist to believe that?

#146 Ole Doberman on 04.26.17 at 9:34 am

London property crashes 40% due to tax increases – I think similar stuff happening in Ontario as we speak – look out down below!

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/real_estate/london-property-crashed-40-thanks-to-tax-increase/

#147 Ole Doberman on 04.26.17 at 9:38 am

Wow total more Armageddon on Home Capital stock, seeking $2 billion line of credit as everyone is running for the hills:

http://www.bnn.ca/home-capital-seeks-2b-line-of-credit-as-deposits-plunge-1.735043

The Greater Fool blog is about to get very busy, or should I say busier? Gartho was right all along.

#148 traderJim on 04.26.17 at 9:51 am

A close friend will be listing his GTA SFDH in the next 3 weeks. I’ll get some good insight into whether the market has cooled or not.

Will be interesting if the realtor’s plan turns out to be list low and try for a bidding war or not.

For my friend it’s a question of early retirement or 5 more years…

#149 James on 04.26.17 at 9:56 am

See you on the 13th. Historic.
Like watching the last bison go over the edge.
……………………………………………………………….
Been there done that! What an absolutely practical method of supporting yourself. Let the bison come to you! Ill be waiting for my dinner when they all crash and I can just pick up the pieces.
http://www.history.alberta.ca/headsmashedin/

#150 IHCTD9 on 04.26.17 at 9:58 am

Frankly, if the GTA bubble keeps expanding it’s only going to be good news for me. Many who have sold their Toronto digs for 7 figures have settled out my way – and dropping 500-600K on a 350K house seems to be no problem. That, and the acceptable commuting range for those working in the GTA continues to reach deeper into the hinterland, might only be a couple more years before that also starts pushing prices. Plus the folks who move here are the winners – they sold and crystalized their gains. We’ll take the smart folks any day.

It’s sort of like a brain drain on the GTA, the smart move out, the fools move in…

#151 Empire State Express on 04.26.17 at 10:02 am

My colleagues here at work (in the Big Lemon) think Chinese buying is behind all this RE price appreciation. The thinking is that they got kicked out of BC so they’re moving east. One told me that housebuilders in Winnipeg can’t keep up with the demand for housing – that they are bringing in lumber from the States. Perhaps some intrepid reporter will check out this open house in K Village and see just who the buyers are.

How do you know? Non-white people are all foreign buyers? — Garth

#152 Pre-retiree on 04.26.17 at 10:04 am

HCG in free fall – just rescued from institutional investor.

http://quote.morningstar.ca/Quicktakes/Stock/s_ca.aspx?t=HCG

Is this the beginning of the end?

#153 Pre-retiree on 04.26.17 at 10:04 am

I meant rescued “by” institutional investor.

#154 going down on 04.26.17 at 10:07 am

HCG going down fast.

#155 Stock Picker on 04.26.17 at 10:07 am

#144 traderjim…..yeah ….what a laugh. She was a pedophile. But….of course, women can’t be pedophiles or sex tourists…..right? Hell, go to Cuba, Jamaica , Mexico or DR. The bars are full of old bags hooking up with jet black men and boys. In many cases they bring the boy home and want to marry. Nope…. women teachers are pure and wouldnever seduce young boys ….. we never hear of that happening. Macron has some serious personality defects…..you don’t want anyone that insecure as president.

#156 IHCTD9 on 04.26.17 at 10:11 am

#144 traderJim on 04.26.17 at 9:25 am
re: Macron

“At 15 he decided to seduce his 39 year old teacher”

Oh really? I guess older women in positions of power don’t seduce young boys, it’s always the male. Isn’t that sexist to believe that?
_______________________________

I’m not a woman, but the idea of a 15 year old girl seducing me at 39 is a colossal joke. Never in a million years could that ever happen.

I’d have to assume the general intelligence of a 39 y/o woman who gets emotionally involved with a 15 y/o boy to be ultra low. Right on the bottom end.

#157 SilentReader on 04.26.17 at 10:14 am

Home Capital shares plunge ~50%

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/home-capital-shares-plunge-after-mortgage-lender-seeks-2-billion-credit-line-as-deposits-decline

#158 Dave from Kincardine on 04.26.17 at 10:15 am

One thing that doesn’t help is the amount people spend on cell phones, data plans, cable costs, streaming etc etc. A typical family (phone for the kiddies of course so you can keep tabs on them) could easily run up $500 to $800 per month. And what do you get for it? This is insane as well.

#159 Ole Doberman on 04.26.17 at 10:21 am

Now $7 for HCG – I called it a couple days ago.

If this doesn’t hold next stop is one dolla!

Can you say Country Wide?!

#160 Ronaldo on 04.26.17 at 10:22 am

HCG down over 60% this morning, wow

http://web.tmxmoney.com/company.php?&qm_page=3250&qm_symbol=HCG

#161 maxx on 04.26.17 at 10:27 am

“Kleinberg”……small mountain…….poetic.

Hardwood on the upper level for that mega-mountain wad of cash not included?!!……pathetic.

Riding the magnificent profit-wave of unbridled gullibility…….priceless.

I used to resent realtards and gubbmint for this irreversible mess, but now realize that Canuckleheds are as manipulable as bread dough.

With all due respect to those who don’t line up for days in diapers with lawn chairs, Canadians, in the main, are the dumbest suckers on the planet.

#162 Lee on 04.26.17 at 10:27 am

I believe if you remove the sale of reconstructed homes from the sames mix the average increase in house prices this year over last is probably 5%. Include the sales real estate agents do not report in a “timely manner” each month, and that probably drops to 3%. When a house is reconstructed it should not be included in the sales totals, but it is, and it is included as a property that in effect has increased 200%, when really, most of that is increases arising from development, not passage of time or demand. People who buy resales to hold and sell should be careful. Especially after LTT, agents fees and other carrying costs, where you’ll need at least a 15% increase just to break even, and now JT wants 50% of the profit.

#163 Ronaldo on 04.26.17 at 10:37 am

#138 traderJim

”That one comment by itself may have swung enough votes, it certainly was emblematic of the disdain with which the New Upper Class looks at mainstream Americans.”
————————————————————–
Yes Jim, just like most of us deplorables look down upon the ‘down and outs’ looking for handouts on the street corners.

#164 Dominoes Lining Up on 04.26.17 at 10:38 am

3131 cto said:

“CBC radio guest this morning praising Toronto as this new world class City that everyone wants to move to. however she did criticize public housing and infrastructure. She suggested the answer to the Cities finance problem in regards to public housing is to raid the CMHC fund! I guess she thinks we will never need to use it.
Garth, Dogs, what do you think of this???”

————————————————-

I heard that too, Armine Yalnizyan is her name. She’s usually more sensible and liekable than the other CBC yapper, Michael Hlinka, when it comes to housing.

This struck me as really odd, a kind of wilful blindness on her part. Basically she says “it’s different this time, because we’re world class”.

She completely glosses over the incredible underlying financial weakness and indebtedness of homeowners, as well as the economy so distorted by this market. She is oblivious to those fundamental metrics, at least today, things like debt ratios and price to income levels which are getting worse.

She also says we need more infrastructure, ignoring the fact that governments won’t/can’t raise taxes on property and income to pay for this, because the people will revolt. They are all stretched so thin, and no immigrant or Chinese wave of buyers will address that.

She has bet that unlike all previous bubbles, this one won’t burst.

In our current Wile E Coyote moment, she is looking up at the sunny sky, instead of down into the canyon.

I’ll remember her obliviousness.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gq_bjaI0NTo

#165 westcdn on 04.26.17 at 10:41 am

Is Home Capital Group ever getting hammered today. I try to avoid companies like them, too bad they can lie like a sidewalk. It is the major reason I check management before financials.

#166 Pre-retiree on 04.26.17 at 10:47 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/embattled-home-capital-secures-2-billion-lifeline/article34816524/

#167 Tony on 04.26.17 at 10:55 am

Re: #159 Ronaldo on 04.26.17 at 10:22 am

I’ve been basically short stocks since 2010. Home Capital is one of my largest shorts. I’m also short EQB and MIC.

#168 Subprime north imploding on 04.26.17 at 10:55 am

GAME OVER FOR CANUCK RE !!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/rent-control-condo-urbanation-1.4084384

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/home-capital-shares-plunge-after-mortgage-lender-seeks-2-billion-credit-line-as-deposits-decline

#169 MarketPundit on 04.26.17 at 10:56 am

Holly Molly. Check Home Capital Group out! Almost 60% Fall! What happens to all those mortgages they provided?

#170 Tony on 04.26.17 at 10:57 am

Re: #164 westcdn on 04.26.17 at 10:41 am

Anyone with half a brain would have shorted Home Capital and then bought back all the shares they were short right before May 4th the start of the OSC investigation.

#171 paulo on 04.26.17 at 11:08 am

#146 ole doberman

im sensing a short squeeze play not sure if CA and Turtle have enough to pull it

#172 maxx on 04.26.17 at 11:08 am

#5 Shortymac on 04.25.17 at 5:14 pm

“Interesting question, how do you think the Trump tariffs on softwood are going to impact Canada and the economy?”

Trump has stated repeatedly that he is pro-US and he’ll follow up on it. Big time. Dairy and softwood are just the beginning. Any msm rhetoric about “discussions” with tptb in the US by our “team” is just foamy fill for pulp and airwaves. The US is not in the business of giving anything away – especially when it’s piloting its way to recovery…….and then there’s also that little matter of historic Canadian arrogance towards the US- especially back in ’12 when our dollarette was at and just over par……

I suspect that the desperate minimum income pilot project in OntariOWE is set to see the ranks of potential beneficiaries explode.
$17K times X people, year after year = giga debt, with little to no revenue for gubbmint given the basic personal exemption, etc……

BUT, it could be a great boost to Canada’s new pot industry and low-income housing.

The tsunami of mortgage/consumer debt as well as the inevitable losses catalyzed by rate-increases cannot be hidden, can’t be buried and (laughably) won’t be “inflated away”. That peculiarity existed in old model economies.

Canadians with dwindling quality employment will further reduce government revenues and if nothing substantial (read rates) is done now, Canada will whimper its way quietly down the list of global countries with influence. Unfortunately, we have the weineriest leadership known to man.
“Remember how rich and well off Canada used to be?”

They don’t call mac ‘n cheese “dinner” for nothing in Canuckistan. Perhaps a new snack named “lick-a-brick” ought to be handed out to the diapered supplicants waiting in line.

#173 Herb on 04.26.17 at 11:10 am

#130 Trumpocalypse,

relax.

As a wise Canadian senior officer summarized to the student body after a Staff College exercise, No one has ever fought a war in which there were no prizes, and in a nuclear war there are no prizes.

North Korea is only blustering (by both sides!) and a non-event.

#174 Julia on 04.26.17 at 11:10 am

#147 traderJim

My immediate neighbors are prepping for sale, sign going up this week or next in Toronto. Millenials buying bigger in a “nicer” neighborhood after 6 years in this one. Sigh.
Will update on sale as well.

#175 45north on 04.26.17 at 11:13 am

boots: Finally got my copy of FED UP by Danielle Dimartino Booth

my heroine

traderJim: I might prepare today just in case because no doubt North Korea aiming for NYC will no doubt miss and hit my little town instead.

Brewster NY?

#176 AB Boxster on 04.26.17 at 11:17 am

Home Capital will likely fail within the next few weeks.
Deposit money is fleeing like rats from a sinking Spanish galleon.

Home Capital is Canada’s Countrywide Financial.
Next we will see some major financial institute make an offer for Home Capital, to try to preserve a semblance of normalcy in the system.

Canada is such an economic joke.

Just legalize the ganja, and the transformation from Canada as a strong principled nation of hard workers and savers, to a nation of house horny, debt laden, potheads is complete.

#177 Ronaldo on 04.26.17 at 11:20 am

The day traders must be having a picnic with HCG today…down to $6.32 this morning…down 63%….probably see it back to $10 by the close….huge short positions likely to be covered yet…U.S. hedge funds were right on the mark with this one…maybe a sign of things to come

#178 Keith in Calgary on 04.26.17 at 11:23 am

#119 Another Albertan

“I live near Altadore. I am consistently shaking my head at the houses that are still being built in that neighbourhood. A colleague has a 2010/11 vintage infill near 50th Avenue SW. I am appalled at the build quality of what was notionally a $1M house. It’s just a more civilized veneer on particle board and glue. As I left, the door knob came off in my hand. Ridiculous.

I also especially like the washboard effect on all the streets and avenues, due to the hundreds of cuts-and-fills that have occurred to tie in the water and waste utilities. The roadways are a massive future liability.”

—————-

I live in Garrison Green on the other side of Crowchild Trail, right beside Altadore……and drive down 19 St quite often past all those little strip malls…….it’s literally a cardboard jungle with a road that can best be described as what it must feel like to drive a 500,000 KM ex-cop Crown Victoria over speed bumps every 25’……LOL !!

They have been building a few solid concrete “bunker” homes there lately, but for the most part, they are horrible cardboard contraptions. I grew up in the Currie PMQ’s as a kid back in the 70’s, what a difference a few decades and a couple of booms RE can make.

#179 Ronaldo on 04.26.17 at 11:25 am

#169 Tony

”Anyone with half a brain would have shorted Home Capital and then bought back all the shares they were short right before May 4th the start of the OSC investigation.”
——————————————————————
Did you?

#180 Tony on 04.26.17 at 11:28 am

Re: #175 AB Boxster on 04.26.17 at 11:17 am

I doubt that, I’m going to be a heavy buyer of Home Capital Group shares near the end of the OSC investigation. I’ll try to time it right. The OSC investigation is May 4th to May 11th. I’ll bet since this is Canada all the bankers will collude and Home Capital quote gets off with a slap on the wrist. The opposite would happen in America. Trudeau will bail them out if anything happens you watch, this is Canada not America.

#181 Ronaldo on 04.26.17 at 11:29 am

#166 Tony on 04.26.17 at 10:55 am

Re: #159 Ronaldo on 04.26.17 at 10:22 am

I’ve been basically short stocks since 2010. Home Capital is one of my largest shorts. I’m also short EQB and MIC.
———————————————————–
Good for you. Hope you’ve cashed out.

#182 Sun tzu 4 u on 04.26.17 at 11:34 am

#172 Herb on 04.26.17 at 11:10 am

#130 Trumpocalypse,

relax.

As a wise Canadian senior officer summarized to the student body after a Staff College exercise, No one has ever fought a war in which there were no prizes, and in a nuclear war there are no prizes.

North Korea is only blustering (by both sides!) and a non-event.”

Naive comment…the prize is control of East Asia, either by the US and allies, or China! Duh!

#183 Ogopogo on 04.26.17 at 11:36 am

Absolutely thrilled to see Home Capital stock (HCG.TO) in the gutter. -62% at time of writing! Revenge is a dish best served short. Mark Cohodes is a genius for shorting this stock. Let’s hope he’s also right about the predicted housing crash.

In the meantime, schadenfreude has never tasted so sweet.

#184 paulo on 04.26.17 at 11:37 am

Canaries in the coal mine

the town i live in Barrie is facing, a 15M budget short fall
due to a reported 20% delinquency rate of rate payers not getting there property tax in this year to date
have to wounder how many other southern Ontario city’s and towns are having the same problem

#185 TurnerNation on 04.26.17 at 11:38 am

Starve the beast!
Goodbye Home Crapital and Genworthless.
Sub prime, sublime.

#186 cto on 04.26.17 at 11:59 am

#163 Dominoes Lining Up

Totally agree with everything you just said, except your comment about Michael Hlinka.
His delivery is not always friendly but he completely recognizes the fundamental downside issues of this housing market and debt in the GTA and acknowledges that regardless of whether T.O is “world Class”, housing will not go up indefinitely. (He has much more realistic common sense about this).

#187 For those about to flop... on 04.26.17 at 12:18 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Richmond.

I will put this one up because it has already been sold once this year in early February and now these guys are left holding the bag.

They paid 1.65m for the place when the writing was already on the wall ,which is a testament to the stubbornness of some people to believe that real estate will always go up.

They could only take 8k off because they are already going to take a loss after expenses if it sells anywhere near asking.

3 bedders in that part of the city are down 6% year over year so could be a drawn out battle…

M42BC

3471 Rosamond Avenue, Richmond

Feb 1:$1,688,000
Apr 25: $1,680,000
Change: – 8000.00 -0%

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/3471-rosamond-avenue

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1WFEwOA==

#188 Braj on 04.26.17 at 12:18 pm

#128 Stock Picker on 04.26.17 at 3:02 am
Shocking …. and hilarious that you debt and deny rate junkies are signing up for life long slavery. Personally, I don’t owe a dime . I get to wake up every day
late….read all the international news with coffee…check how much cash flew into my acct overnight and the go for a swim, workout, sun tan .. wash repeat. A condo with an incredible river view is around 100k….no
property tax. The sun shines every day and living is cheap and easy. If you want to hand half your dough to Trudeau every month you’re just stupid and you don’t deserve this.

This is the goal. Where do you enjoy such luxuries?

Any advice for how to get to this point for someone 26 years of age?

#189 Joe Nobody on 04.26.17 at 12:23 pm

Let’s say, hypothetically, Home Trust goes under. Who will take on their book of business especially in the state it is in now?

Will the creditors/investors just call it in?

#190 Marcus on 04.26.17 at 12:31 pm

And so it begins …… “Canada’s Housing Bubble Explodes As Its Biggest Mortgage Lender Crashes Most In History.” Home Capital Group’s sudden collapse was actually visible from a distance. While in the summer of 2015, the termination of HCG was still debate, in recent months the company’s woes stemmed from allegations by the Ontario Securities Commission that Home Capital misled investors and broke securities laws.

In other words engaged in those “liar loans” which we first warned about back in the summer of 2015.

Meanwhile, founder Gerald Soloway will step down from the board when a replacement is named and Robert Blowes will assume the role of interim chief financial officer, the company said Monday.

“The company anticipates that further declines will occur, and that the credit line would also mitigate the impact of those,” Home Capital said. ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss – BOOM!!!!!!!

#191 Tony on 04.26.17 at 12:36 pm

Re: #158 Ole Doberman on 04.26.17 at 10:21 am

I’ll take a shot at the bottom. The bottom will be May 6th at $3.71 a share. After the trading halt on May 11th or 12 when the shares reopen for trading my take is they’ll reopen around fifteen dollars a share. That’s the way I see it. My bet is on Canada that’s all I’m betting on. In America bankrupt for sure but think this isn’t America.

#192 Observer on 04.26.17 at 12:38 pm

Garth, something bad is happenning with mortgage lenders and backers on the stock exchange. The 7 of them.

– Equitable
– Home Capital
– Genworth
– etc.

Something very bad.

#193 EQB on 04.26.17 at 12:46 pm

Equitable Bank stock down 32% at 12:45 pm in Toronto and falling like a knife . I read this morning that they were Canada’s 9th largest Bank ? Didn’t know that.

#194 For those about to flop... on 04.26.17 at 12:49 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Delta.

These guys still have a little bit of room to maneuver ,but with their latest reduction they fall into Pink Pollen territory and so up she goes on the board as well to show the softness in the Delta market for folks out that way on the blog.

They paid 1.39m for this respectable looking 10 year old house last Spring and could get out with just a few singed hairs on the back of their hands,but with the average sales price down 14.3% ,tied for last place with Vancouver proper for last place in the region at the moment and 3 bedders in the city down 21% they might want to take the next decent offer so they can relax for the summer…

M42BC

5833 Cove Link Road, Delta

Oct 15:$1,588,800
Apr 25: $1,499,000
Change: – 89800.00 -6%

https://www.zolo.ca/delta-real-estate/5833-cove-link-road

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDAwQ1g3RQ==

P.S . Thanks Crowdie for your kind comment the other day…

#195 NoName on 04.26.17 at 12:50 pm

@ Farts

Powerful you have become, lots of gas I sense in you. But, much to learn you still have… This is just the beginning. Use your browser, fartz, and find more ascii characters you will.

#196 bdwy sktrn on 04.26.17 at 1:00 pm

warren was right on costco.

7$ special div.
reg div up.

#197 Spaccone on 04.26.17 at 1:02 pm

My mother received a GIC renewal notice in the mail yesterday…$40k at 0.93%. In an annoyed huff she said she should just take everything out and buy a house to rent out (she would only look at McMansion type of place). She is at the start of her 60s and makes about minimum wage (despite that works like a dog to make around $45k/yr and I dare say saves virtually all of it). Fortunately me and my father are pretty resistant and fight to keep her grounded from her real estate manic attacks. I manage a similar sum for her that’s returned on average 8-9% the past few years despite some bad bets. This is someone who came from a medievalish Euro town and may appear somewhat modern but is hardcore old-fashioned.

Many of her other minimum wage colleagues also humblebrag about real estate…one who’s flipped every now and then and says he wouldn’t have gotten ahead on minimum wage alone…others who’re in the same situation as my mother, bought a McMansion years ago and made a windfall (parents “$1mm” house is paid off)…some who humblebrag about some new house, 1st or 2nd and usually unbuilt they bought and how much it keeps going up in value.

I’ve learned to have little sympathy for people…they just have to learn on their own/from real life examples.

#198 Ole Doberman on 04.26.17 at 1:20 pm

#177 Keith in Calgary on 04.26.17 at 11:23 am

#119 Another Albertan

“I live near Altadore. I am consistently shaking my head at the houses that are still being built in that neighbourhood. A colleague has a 2010/11 vintage infill near 50th Avenue SW. I am appalled at the build quality of what was notionally a $1M house. It’s just a more civilized veneer on particle board and glue. As I left, the door knob came off in my hand. Ridiculous.

I also especially like the washboard effect on all the streets and avenues, due to the hundreds of cuts-and-fills that have occurred to tie in the water and waste utilities. The roadways are a massive future liability.”

—————-

I live in Garrison Green on the other side of Crowchild Trail, right beside Altadore……and drive down 19 St quite often past all those little strip malls…….it’s literally a cardboard jungle with a road that can best be described as what it must feel like to drive a 500,000 KM ex-cop Crown Victoria over speed bumps every 25’……LOL !!

They have been building a few solid concrete “bunker” homes there lately, but for the most part, they are horrible cardboard contraptions. I grew up in the Currie PMQ’s as a kid back in the 70’s, what a difference a few decades and a couple of booms RE can make.
——————————————————–
Are you guys talking about those four and duplex like houses?

I think there was a group with the strategy of buying a lot then building those types of houses then flipping them. Was a Rich Dad seminar if I remember correctly.

Are you guys noticing an inventory build up of these around Calgary? Last time I drove through Altadore I saw quite a bit of these up for sale. That was 1-2 years ago so maybe some have sold, or maybe are being rented out, or tried to.

#199 Simplyput7 on 04.26.17 at 1:42 pm

O’Leary drops out!

Endorses Bernier.

#200 Fuzzy Camel on 04.26.17 at 1:46 pm

All the subprime lenders got whacked. Equitable and HCG. Looks like this bubble is in the very early stages of collapsing. Wait until Trump starts cranking up the US economy and the trade war with Canada heats up, rates in the US will go up steep, same with Canada. I predict by mid 2018 we are full in a recession worse than 2009.

#201 dontcallmeshirley on 04.26.17 at 1:52 pm

Real estate is crowding out other GDP elements and the massive 16 yr migration of savings from investments into real estate has eroded the tax base. Gov’t no likey.

Is that what you’re trying to say, Garth?

#202 For those about to flop... on 04.26.17 at 1:56 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Richmond.

I will put this one up because it has already been sold once this year in early February and now these guys are left holding the bag.

They paid 1.65m for the place when the writing was already on the wall ,which is a testament to the stubbornness of some people to believe that real estate will always go up.

They could only take 8k off because they are already going to take a loss after expenses if it sells anywhere near asking.

3 bedders in that part of the city are down 6% year over year so could be a drawn out battle…

M42BC

3471 Rosamond Avenue, Richmond

Feb 1:$1,688,000
Apr 25: $1,680,000
Change: – 8000.00 -0%

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/3471-rosamond-avenue

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1WFEwOA==

P.S tried to put this one up twice but it’s not just the weather in Vancouver that’s not cooperating…

#203 RMac on 04.26.17 at 1:58 pm

Garth that is a fair comment and reply… I agree, you should hold real estate in a balance with other assets, which is good advice.

#204 Cici on 04.26.17 at 2:00 pm

#86 Smoking Man

Blog dog meet up at the General Store in Belfountain. 1:30pm. Do you have ADHD or something like that. Pay attention woman.
____________________________________________

Don’t tell a woman who’s breastfeeding round-the-clock and trying to tend to a 7 1/2 month old who’s been crawling for a month and has decided he wants to start walking and needs to be entertained all day and night to “pay attention.”

But apparently, we both have ADHD, because May 13 is the day Kleinberg goes up for sale. Just giving you a heads up, because if you go to the Belfountain, you’ll be all alone and you’ll miss out on a great buying opportunity.

#205 jess on 04.26.17 at 2:00 pm

…” accuse the U.K. of sabotaging European trade defenses as the goods in the fraud ring enter the EU’s single market through the U.K.
http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-faces-e2-billion-eu-payment-for-china-fraud-trade/

operation “snake”
OLAF and the Anti-smuggling Bureau of the General Administration of China Customs, it involved the customs administrations of all EU Member States, as well as those of the People’s Republic of China.

Brussels, 12 September 2014

Operation SNAKE: EU and Chinese customs join forces to target undervaluation of goods at customs

EU and national authorities prevented losses of over €80 million in customs duties, during a major joint customs operation (JCO) coordinated by the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF). This joint customs operation had particular significance as, for the first time ever, it also involved Chinese customs authorities. Operation “SNAKE” specifically targeted the undervaluation of imported goods, which causes huge losses to public budgets every year. Over a one month period, OLAF and the participating customs authorities detected more than 1,500 containers where the declared customs value was heavily undervalued. This included false descriptions of goods, false weights and quantities, and counterfeit goods. In addition, customs authorities succeeded in identifying several so-called missing traders and non-existent importers, triggering a number of criminal and administrative investigations in several countries.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-1001_en.htm

#206 James on 04.26.17 at 2:02 pm

#126 Ch on 04.26.17 at 1:27 am

Not one mention of the softwood tarrif…..

We are truly on our own in BC.
……………………………………………………………………
Don’t worry the idiots still purchasing homes here in Ontariario will buy your wood. Better yet tell the idiot in Washington not to bother with his tarrif we will sell our wood to the Chinese, Iranians, Syrians and the little goof in north of Seoul.

#207 TRT on 04.26.17 at 2:03 pm

Garth,

What effect will the US corporate tax rate of 15% have on multi-national head offices here in Canada? What about satellite manufacturing plants here in Canada?

#208 TRT on 04.26.17 at 2:04 pm

And only 2 deductions!

Mortgage interest and charitable donations.

WOW.

What’s Trudeau going to do? Selfie?

#209 TRT on 04.26.17 at 2:07 pm

And another bombshell coming Friday!

Executive order to withdraw from NAFTA!

WOW. Another selfie.

#210 Ole Doberman on 04.26.17 at 2:37 pm

#197 Fuzzy Camel on 04.26.17 at 1:46 pm

All the subprime lenders got whacked. Equitable and HCG. Looks like this bubble is in the very early stages of collapsing. Wait until Trump starts cranking up the US economy and the trade war with Canada heats up, rates in the US will go up steep, same with Canada. I predict by mid 2018 we are full in a recession worse than 2009.
———————————————————-
Fuzzy who are other sub primers?

#211 When Will They Raise Rates? on 04.26.17 at 2:43 pm

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-26/canadas-housing-bubble-explodes-its-biggest-mortgage-lender-crashes-most-history

#212 For those about to flop... on 04.26.17 at 2:47 pm

Hey Broadway,since your on here did you catch my message the other day to you with a few price checks?

Not unless you are serious about not helping me anymore,which I totally understand….but…

Let’s do it for the kids as they are being led to the slaughterhouse…

M42BC

M42BC

#213 Tazibnu on 04.26.17 at 2:58 pm

If you don’t believe the housing market can go down just look at Home Capital Group (HCG). Its ~60% decline in a day will dry up a lot of capital required to keep lending out more, and larger mortgages.

PS. Happy 100 years of income tax

PSS. Happy Penguin day

#214 Shawn on 04.26.17 at 2:59 pm

HCG collapsed!

#215 Conservatives just lost next election on 04.26.17 at 2:59 pm

Simplyput7 on 04.26.17 at 1:42 pm
O’Leary drops out!

Endorses Bernier.

it was O’Leary or BUST! and we cons just went bust!

Liberals or NDP next election. Even O’Leary saw the writing on the wall

#216 conan on 04.26.17 at 3:00 pm

“Kevin O’Leary drops out of Conservative leadership race, will endorse Maxime Bernier.” CBC News

Kevin was a Liberal anyway. He ran for the Conservatives because he had zero chance for the top dog job with the Liberals. I guess he endorsed Maxime because the only chance that the Conservatives have is to engineer a favorable vote split in Quebec.

LOL at the Conservatives. The only candidate who makes sense is Micheal Chong, and he is not even a front runner.

Is it “shish kabab” time for the Cons?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVv94T5LF0c

#217 Jonah on 04.26.17 at 3:01 pm

Sold my primary residence over asking.

It had some to do with the crazy price and much to do with affordability. I found, I could not afford my own house in the long run should the prices continue like this. It was best to cash out and go out on rent.

#218 CONservatives lost next election on 04.26.17 at 3:02 pm

Former Dragons’ Den TV star believes he cannot defeat Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in next election

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/kevin-oleary-drops-out-endorses-bernier-1.4086583

It’s already over CON’s you lost. Another four years of Liberals unless the masses wake up and realize Liberals = CONservative lite. You CON have one choice vote NDP to beat Trudeau or vote CON and watch Trudeau for ANOTHER FOUR YEARS. AAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAAHA

#219 Cunegonde on 04.26.17 at 3:05 pm

I’m wondering if the fall has not started, in fact. I am the only bidder on a beautiful one BR condo in a gorgeous building on Roncesvalles, in trendy Roncy Village.
Asking price for this 1 100 sq ft beauty was 695 K and I bid at 739 K. Problem is, a new high rise is going to go up in front of its top to bottom windows, plus the market is at its highest. Expectations are still high, because the sellers and their agent came back asking for 785 K , even with no competing offers!
I even went up a tad ( to 755 K) , but stopped short when they asked for me to go a bit higher to 765 K…
Can you believe this?

#220 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 04.26.17 at 3:06 pm

Home Capital

down $11(64.37) to $6.09

Wow the housing bubble is imploding fast and HARD!

Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#221 Smoking Man on 04.26.17 at 3:08 pm

#206 TRT on 04.26.17 at 2:07 pm
And another bombshell coming Friday!

Executive order to withdraw from NAFTA!

WOW. Another selfie.
……
Have you loaded up on usdcad

#222 Leeman on 04.26.17 at 3:17 pm

Oh my God ! Home Capital Group drops 60% in just ONE DAY !
Not one year, or one month, or one week. No. One DAY !

If Home Capital is an indicator of she SHTF moment home ‘investors’ are going to be feeling soon, then this is going to be EPIC !

Here is a 1 year bar chart of Home Capital Group stock price: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HCG.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p57413711446

#223 Pre-retiree on 04.26.17 at 3:18 pm

#207 Ole Doberman on 04.26.17 at 2:37 pm
#197 Fuzzy Camel on 04.26.17 at 1:46 pm

All the subprime lenders got whacked. Equitable and

HCG. Looks like this bubble is in the very early stages of collapsing. Wait until Trump starts cranking up the US economy and the trade war with Canada heats up, rates in the US will go up steep, same with Canada. I predict by mid 2018 we are full in a recession worse than 2009.
———————————————————-
Fuzzy who are other sub primers?

_____________________________
Probably VanCity CU as Garth mentioned in a much earlier blog. However, not traded publicly.

#224 POPPING? on 04.26.17 at 3:18 pm

HCG and EQB Falling hard, MIC is slowly following. But people keep buying at record high prices.
Some say these lenders are a small % of the lenders giving out mortgages in Toronto. The big 5 banks are still dominating.
Would anyone disagree? Can the fall of HCG really prove the market is crashing?

#225 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 04.26.17 at 3:19 pm

EQB on 04.26.17 at 12:46 pm
Equitable Bank stock down 32% at 12:45 pm in Toronto and falling like a knife . I read this morning that they were Canada’s 9th largest Bank ? Didn’t know that.

look at Canada’s house of cards crashing. Shut down CMHC. Time to wire more letter. to those useless MP’s and tell them to shut down CMHC which is the main reason for the bubble. I know all you realtor shill and mortgage broker shills HATE the FREE and OPEN markets. You are all useless eaters who could NEVER survive in the FREE and OPEN markets. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#226 Manitoba Whale on 04.26.17 at 3:20 pm

#126 Ch on 04.26.17 at 1:27 am
Not one mention of the softwood tarrif…..

We are truly on our own in BC.
****
A friend has mothballed his small exporting facility in Ontario because of the tariff. He is not betting on a positive outcome in the near future. Unfortunate for his staff. The carrying costs going forward will bleed his company slowly. He was aware of the reoccurring potential tariff issues and has run the company very lean over the last while.

#227 For those about to flop... on 04.26.17 at 3:30 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Richmond.

These guys are in danger of taking a sizeable loss on this house.

They got carried away in the euphoria of early last year and paid 2.04m for this early 80s build.

The generous assessment that came later in the year topped out at 1.73m and so their realtor has their work cut out on this one.

Massive reduction,but there she is up on zolo ,new listing ,no reduction,nothing to see here…

M42BC

4655 Mahood Drive, Richmond

Mar 23:$2,288,000
Apr 25: $1,880,000
Change: – 408000.00 -18%

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/4655-mahood-drive

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1WFBDRw==

#228 calgaryPhantom on 04.26.17 at 3:39 pm

last bison just got over the edge.

Classic timing garth!!

Just called my realtor and told him my house buying plan has been delayed until further notice.

#229 Pete on 04.26.17 at 3:43 pm

We need to email MPs to shut down CMHC asap. Its obvious lenders dont care to do simple checks. Dont you agree realtors and mortgage brokers who cry about free markets?

#230 TurnerNation on 04.26.17 at 3:47 pm

Smart rats fled the ship: Karney to UK. O’Dreary won’t lead this mess.

#231 Keith on 04.26.17 at 3:49 pm

It’s not just HCG. Look at EQB. The entire Alt-A sector is tanking. This will take down the housing market.

#232 Mark on 04.26.17 at 3:50 pm

“Correct me if I am wrong but the only scenario under which CMHC would pay out the entire $300B if insured loans would be if all the properties financed were to sell for $0 and they recover $0 from the borrowers.”

Well, here’s the math I used to come to that number. The CMHC average LTV is quoted at 53.2%, and the CMHC has some $900B under insurance or re-insurance. So the CMHC stands behind property worth approximately $1.9T, with ~$1T of owners equity.

We can infer that the loans in the CMHC portfolio comprise the lower two quartiles of the Canadian mortgage loan marketplace.

If prices drop by 60% on an average basis, the housing units under the CMHC portfolio are likely to drop even more severely than that, 70%. Given their lower than average quality.

70% off of $1.9T = $570B.

$900B – $570B ~= $300B.

An absolute worst-case scenario, mind you similar drops occurred in the most over-leveraged areas of the United States in their crisis. And this time around (on either side of the border), central bankers have no ability to engage in policy action to reflate housing. The BoC and the Fed can’t cut interest rates to any level of significance. Ownership rates in Canada are already at the historic upper bound, so there is little ability to get new buyers into the market. So someone is going to be holding the bag if the market melts down. And it does seem to me that it is unlikely that the Government of Canada alone would shoulder it.

“The Feds would be tied up in legal so long against the full weight of all the banks that this would never happen”

Sure, it would be heavily litigated if the government made arbitrary and retroactive changes to CMHC subprime mortgage insurance. No doubt about that.

However, could the (Canadian) banks survive the time it would take for a court challenge to take place? Would the capital markets not respond extremely negatively? A good metaphor is “mutually assured destruction”, whereby the CMHC needs the banks to keep lending, and the banks need the CMHC to keep guaranteeing. But obviously politicians at some point in the game will find it politically necessary to limit the flow of bailouts to the CMHC, and hence, the banks, in a scenario of falling prices.

#233 Equitable on 04.26.17 at 3:50 pm

Equitable Group Inc. Down 30%

#234 common sense on 04.26.17 at 4:04 pm

C’mon Janet, raise rates and get the job we have waited so long for to get done!

#235 TCContrarian on 04.26.17 at 4:05 pm

“And yet it’s held together with the gossamer threads of emotion and confidence, and reinforced with the duct tape of cheap money.” -GT
***************************************

Almost poetic! Not only a financial guru, but a literary talent as well! :-)

TCC

#236 that event on May 13th... on 04.26.17 at 4:13 pm

might as well be cancelled

subprime lenders are toast.. good luck finding a bank willing to issue a pre-approved mortgage on a piece of shit dirt and beaver barf board in Kleinberg for 1.5 mil

had to happen and I hope those moron builders are in knee deep themselves

#237 Dominoes Lining Up on 04.26.17 at 4:17 pm

#185 cto

#163 Dominoes Lining Up

Totally agree with everything you just said, except your comment about Michael Hlinka.
His delivery is not always friendly but he completely recognizes the fundamental downside issues of this housing market and debt in the GTA and acknowledges that regardless of whether T.O is “world Class”, housing will not go up indefinitely. (He has much more realistic common sense about this).
———————————————-

The problem I have with Hlinka, cto, is that he has actually denied any bubble fairly regularly on that CBC morning program, most recently in February and several times last year. Until March this year, he was one of those saying “it’s different here” Check their podcasts for that.

Apart from that, I find him a pretty vacuous fast-talker, who prattles on about generalities most of the time with great earnestness and self-importance.

Totally unlike us blog commenters, huh? ;)

#238 Smoking Man on 04.26.17 at 4:35 pm

Wonder what is going to happen to all the American Managers running or banks when Trump Ditches Nafta.

#239 Another Albertan on 04.26.17 at 4:41 pm

#133 – Fartzy

I’m not a lawyer. These breakups are amongst my friends, clients, suppliers, and colleagues. In my small office alone, 4 couples have split. In my group of friends, there are another 7.

My friend who has a family law practice has been working flat out for 2 years. It’s a boom economy for him.

Everyone else’s mileage may vary.

#240 LP on 04.26.17 at 5:02 pm

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.26.17 at 8:30 am
@#124 Ponzi P

I only buy Toyota. Cheaper than Beemers to buy and repair. Last one I owned for 20 years and sold it to a kid 5 years ago….he’s still driving it.
The one I have now should last me until 2035 and I’ll either be dead or chauffered around in a self driving electric Prius……..
************************************

For the day or two AFTER my last day on earth, my family has promised to rent or borrow an old Jaguar, you know – the one with the long low snout. Preferably a dark green one.

They will use it to drive “me” up to Lake Opeongo in Algonquin Park where my ashes will be left to wend their way through the park as the wind blows and the currents carry.

Between now and then, I don’t care what I drive as long as it goes reliably from A to B.

#241 Pre-retiree on 04.26.17 at 5:07 pm

Might be difficult to talk about something else than housing in tomorrow’s blog with what’s happening with HCG and EQB unless, of course, like the print media and radio, one focuses exclusively on the earth-shattering news that O’Leary has found out that reality is nothing like reality TV.

#242 Dan.t on 04.26.17 at 5:12 pm

Here we go. Frig, I thought debt never had to be repaid in Canada. 1.2 million starter homes are cool when average (when lucky) household combined income is almost 82k.

This is what it takes to wake up the population. A 62% drop in a company that has been giving out fraudulent loans to people who could fog a mirror… it’s only 600k, no biggie.

I thought all Canadians were super rich…what! It’s all debt? Or all debt for those under 45!

Boomers who sold are licking their lips, loving life! Those who thought debt was money. Have fun!

Being over dramatic right now.

Banks will bail everyone out, Seriously. Wait and watch.

Those who cried foul that they had to buy a 1.4 million dollar sh*t house with no inspection and 25 certified checks ready, and had to bend over and grab their ankles will blame government, the real estate board and the stray cat down the street and demand their money back.

I hope this is the end.

I hope no bail out for stupidity.

What happens next won’t surprise me at all… some sort of nation wide debt forgiveness plan since Canadians owe 2 Trillion…

Like every Canadian expected. “They” will never let everyone drown together.

Again, I hope this is the end of stupidity and the religious belief that owning a piece of dirt is all you need to do to be successful in life.

#243 Paul on 04.26.17 at 5:20 pm

234 Smoking Man on 04.26.17 at 4:35 pm

Wonder what is going to happen to all the American Managers running or banks when Trump Ditches Nafta.
——————————————————————–
Don’t you have an appointment ??

#244 Mark on 04.26.17 at 5:23 pm

So how long until the BoC cuts interest rates into what is likely unfolding contagion from the collapse of the explicit subprime lenders?

Down to 0% end of year? Anyone?

#245 Damifino on 04.26.17 at 5:30 pm

#237 Pre-retiree

O’Leary has found out that reality is nothing like reality TV.
——————————–

A man who has had a new one ripped personally by Steve Jobs knows what reality is.

#246 Solomon Grundy on 04.26.17 at 6:46 pm

#241 Damifino on 04.26.17 at 5:30 pm

Don’t believe everything O’Leary says..

http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/01/26/news/real-and-shocking-story-kevin-olearys-business-career

#247 Tony on 04.26.17 at 6:51 pm

Re: #240 Mark on 04.26.17 at 5:23 pm

Remember 2015 just when the housing market was starting to soften because of oil in Alberta? Zero is a sure thing with Poloz in charge. Remember most of the short sellers of the Canadian shadow lenders haven’t a clue of what goes on in Canada. That will be their downfall.

#248 Tony on 04.26.17 at 7:03 pm

Re: #215 Cunegonde on 04.26.17 at 3:05 pm

You should have followed the housing market in Markham, Unionville, Richmond Hill and Stouffville before even thinking of putting in a bid on that condo. As these 4 cities go so goes the rest of the GTA.

#249 Tony on 04.26.17 at 7:17 pm

Re: #180 Ronaldo on 04.26.17 at 11:29 am

Like the song Tuesday afternoon probably this Tuesday in the afternoon.

#250 Tony on 04.26.17 at 7:30 pm

Re: #139 TurnerNation on 04.26.17 at 9:05 am

Probably a bad idea, I’d wait and see what happens to condo prices in the Toronto core before making any decision.

#251 Doug in London on 04.26.17 at 9:55 pm

@Mark, post #240:
What’s going to happen? I’ll be damn glad that some of my investments are in US Dollars!

#252 Razor on 04.27.17 at 12:35 am

It’s back to the future!

#253 westcdn on 04.27.17 at 4:04 pm

When my wife and I had children she did not want to stay home. Her career mattered to her and she went back to work as soon as she could. Needless to say I had to pick my girls and drop them off and cook. I nearly cried when they did not want to come home with me. My male colleagues thought me meek and the women were indifferent. My career suffered but my wife’s took off. So when I hear woman complain about how easy a man’s life is, I have a tin ear. They chose their mates.

I suspect the young men my wife promoted were more than causal as she travelled a lot on the company dime. The company parties were always interesting for peacock behaviour. Sour grapes – probably – I leave things to be desired. She met men and controlled them – she had a talent for that. Some were impressive and incredibly wealthy. I am not surprised she left me for a man she thought was better than I. I remember the adage that having a more successful brother in law is the greatest curse a man can have.

Right now my favorite song is called “A fire in my soul”. I plan for another 20 years – a woman that comes along and I respect maybe things can happen. Intellect and compassion are high on my list; I do not need to be coddled when things go bad.

#254 OffshoreObserver on 04.27.17 at 5:22 pm

Maybe these 2 clips will help you “get it.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CypPMzZinys
https://youtu.be/20r6DLhn7o8