L’épiphanie

First, the French Revolution. Then, American Independence. Finally, the Demented Beaver Report. Please take your seats. Quit that damn Instagramming. Turn off your phone. Leave all children outside. Dogs are welcome.

The election in France matters to the world since it pitted the forces of Trumpian populist against a more centrist view of the world. Marine Le Pen is one scary mademoiselle, anti-immigration, anti-globalist, anti-corporate, pro-nationalist and promising an isolated France-for-the-French. She didn’t win the first round, and is unlikely to change that on the second. So markets figure photogenic, T2-clone Emmanuel Macron (who sort of married his mom) will end up president. As a result, the Dow shot ahead 200 points and European markets roared.

After getting beat up with Brexit and Trump, this was a big day for free-traders, globalists and others who think the world is okay and moving ahead. Volatility plunged 25% in a single session. Gold and gold stocks sank. My obsessed Portfolio Manager partner Ryan drove his Porsche at 110 km through crowded Toronto streets and over sidewalks so he could get to the bank tower and send me this note:

  • With the perceived positive outcome in French election, the S&P 500 broke above its short-term downtrend
  • The S&P 500 has been consolidating in a descending triangle but with today’s breakout it’s broken out of this consolidation pattern
  • Next resistance is the March high of 2,400
  • Looks like Europe might finally be breaking out relative to S&P 500
  • With cheaper valuations, improving political environment (if Le Pen loses this would follow Netherlands loss by right wing candidate) and improving technical profile, we could consider reducing US and adding to Europe in the next round of changes

I found the part about the ‘descending triangle’ particularly arousing. In any case, the point is the French thing, at least until le deuxième partie on May 7th, may be signaling that the populist movement is running out of gas and all the 1%ers can stop buying elephant guns. Markets eat this up, since big corps can continue their global operations, moving money and labour around for the efficient manufacture of profits for shareholders.

Now, on to America. More dopamine and endorphins for investors. On Wednesday the poster boy for populism makes good on his campaign promise to slash the US corporate tax rate about in half – right down to 15%. The impact of this, if enacted, would be huge. Stocks which look sort of pricey now on a P/E ratio (that’s the relationship of stock prices to the money the underlying companies actually earn) would end up looking cheap as profits plump. Yup, higher highs, higher lows – extending a pattern that’s been in place now since 2009.

Of course, fatter profits, rising markets and an expanding US economy will also bring more of a response from the Fed. So, if the Trump tax cut comes to pass (or even if it doesn’t) you can expect two or three additional interest rate increases in 2017. The Bank of Canada will follow a few months later, but in the meantime the bond market will adjust mortgage rates upwards. This is not speculation. It will happen.

Meanwhile, in the land of the flat-tailed, house-horny, buck-toothed rodent, taxes are going up, not down, our most indebted province just announced it will give people free money to live on in three cities as a universal income pilot project, and property lust has apparently hit a new high along with debt and risk.

Nik Nanos’ current snapshot of how Canadians are feeling reveals a people detached from economic reality. The number of us who think house prices will rise from nosebleed levels in the next six months has soared to almost 49% – the most on record – while only 10.8% think they could decline. The rest are terrified.

“Bullish sentiment on real estate in Canada continues to drive consumer confidence,” says my pal Nik. Which is strange, given what is happening with household finances. Nanos asked people how they’re doing relative to a year ago, and found that almost 30% of people report their situation has deteriorated – almost twice the number who think it has improved.

So how can people keep buying houses that have never cost more, with record amounts of debt about to become more costly, believing they will continue to inflate even as their own situation worsens? Yup. They believe it’s different here.

Sure got that right. Have you listed yet?

153 comments ↓

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.24.17 at 6:55 pm

To hell with “descending triangles”
Its “fatter profits, rising markets and an expanding ……” that has me excited…..

#2 Cottingham a(was)bargain on 04.24.17 at 6:56 pm

#145 TurnerNation on 04.24.17 at 4:27 pm
A Guest blogger is on BNN right now.

—-

Is it Bigrider , Turner or would he be on TLN ?

#3 gimme gimme! on 04.24.17 at 6:59 pm

Hi. Does anyone know how I can get that $17,000 our Premier Orville Redenbacher is handing out?
I could rent a house with a couple buddies, grow a couple plants next year legally and spend the rest on beer and double cheeseburgers at mcdonalds. While you’re alarm clock is waking you up to take the go train to work I’ll be sleeping soundly.

Hotel Canada!

#4 I'm Not Poloz on 04.24.17 at 7:02 pm

BoC Governor Poloz told me that if the US cuts tax rates by 50%, the Loonie should go down by 50%.

S. Poloz also told me that if the FED hikes rates again this year, Canada needs to cut rates to 0.25% to boost exports and prevent those professional Millennials in downtown Toronto from missing a payment on their VISA card when shopping at the last Hermes store for that handbag which cost an entire house down South in the States.

Poloz wants us to work for free under a 15-40 cent Loonie. He’s that serious to boost exports and inflate the credit bubble in Canada.

#5 Doug t on 04.24.17 at 7:02 pm

When the U.S.S.A drops a bomb North Korea we will REALLY have something to talk about.

RATM

#6 Debtslavecreator on 04.24.17 at 7:02 pm

Canadstan – many Great Canadian Financial Myths are going to be ruined over the next few years my comrades
Don’t worry when 15-20% of us Canucks are unemployed, our houses down 30-40%, taxes doubled and 80% taxes on the “rich” because it’s not fair they make more than 100k, we will all be able to get a guaranteed basic income ! And for those more adventurous our esteemed “leaders” will give you a C7 rifle and send you to New Brunswick for 4-5 months before shipping you to Iran, Europe and the Korean Peninsula to fight for “our freedoms”
Yeah ! The future looks bright indeed in Canadstan my comrades
If I hear the word Fair coming out of a crooked politicians mouth one more time I think I’m going to throw up
The pending collapse of HCG & EQB and the subsequent drying up of credit to marginal buyers ought to slow the RE market much more than anything the govmint has done

#7 Good to help the poor. on 04.24.17 at 7:03 pm

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39675442

#8 Josef on 04.24.17 at 7:04 pm

Josef maybe first today or maybe not, but Josef thinks the real estate disease is everywhere.

https://youtu.be/SBjXUBMkkE8

#9 GFC v2.0 on 04.24.17 at 7:04 pm

“….Markets eat this up, since big corps can continue their global operations, moving money and labour around for the efficient manufacture of profits for shareholders…….”
_________________________

Yeah, I guess that pretty much sums up society today. Good luck with your gated communities. You’re probably going to need much bigger walls in the very near future.

#10 InvestorsFriend on 04.24.17 at 7:07 pm

Stock Market Volatility Most Certainly Did not plunge Today

“Volatility plunged 25% in a single session.”

********************************************

I know the above comment is not a main theme at all today and just a tiny side comment from Garth. So don’t take offense at the following.

I am on self-imposed hiatus from posting until June 1. However, I believe the hiatus rules allow one post per month.

Volatility is a measure of how much a stock index jiggles up and down. It is impossible that actually volatility fell on a day the DOW rose 216 points. See Malcolm Gladwell’s book Blink. This idea that volatility fell today is one of those things that you know at a glance is wrong.

I suppose the VIX might have fallen today. The VIX is some weird measure of implied volatility based on futures exchanges. If it fell today then it most certainly is not a measure of actual volatility.

Wise investors tune out any mention of VIX. It has absolutely nothing to do with actual investing where people own companies. It is just part of the side-show of zero-sum gambling that happens on the futures market. If anyone mentions VIX, stop listening immediately.

#11 Ogopoho on 04.24.17 at 7:09 pm

My portfolio reached an all-time high today, yet again. All the while pumping out dividends even as the usual gaggle of crybabies were berating Garth for suggesting preferreds were a good buy back when they were in the gutter. The sheeple never learn…

Speaking of never learning, condo airlords (a.k.a. “landlords”) and specuvestors are about to eat some serious humble pie in the Golden Horseshoe (which, ironically, produces so much bovine excrement):

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/new-rent-control-rules-could-put-condo-investors-in-a-negative-cash-flow-corner

Buckle up, barfing braggarts and it’s-different-here troglodytes. Welcome to the new normal: negative cash flow.

Those of us savvy renter-investors laugh maniacally as we reach for the popcorn.

#12 Goldie on 04.24.17 at 7:10 pm

France will continue to be targeted by terrorist attacks until the French have had enough of it. Apparently that time may not yet have arrived. I’m glad that I don’t live in Paris. To his credit, Macron has promised a crackdown, but he is an elitist so anything he says about protecting ordinary people should be taken with a grain of salt.

#13 common sense on 04.24.17 at 7:10 pm

Very compelling facts you set forth once again Mr. T.

US interest odds up to 68%.

Blind Faith and Hope. Look out below.

#14 David W2 on 04.24.17 at 7:11 pm

So….. when do the house prices start going south? 2 Months from now, 2 years, maybe a decade?

#15 I'm stupid on 04.24.17 at 7:13 pm

It is different here… soon we’ll all be paying 100% tax on income and receive universal income from the government. Money grows on trees in Ontario!

#16 Smartalox on 04.24.17 at 7:14 pm

Had to hold the missus close last night.

After watching some ‘lifestyle columnists’ recite anecdotes about the insanity of real estate markets on the National last night, she openly wondered if we (she) would ever own a house, and have a place to retire.

I responded that given our savings rates, and the performance of our balanced, diversified portfolios, even if we never bought, we’re on track to retire with enough to rent just about anywhere we’d care to, and never touch the principal.

Heck, said I: she could quit her job at age 50, and we could still have a decent, if more modest retirement. But if we were to buy a house, she’d have to keep working for 25 more.

But I just want stability, she said. I hate the thought of renting, and maybe having our home sold out form under us! Ironically the same week that we marked 7 years living in our rent-controlled haven.

I would have loved to have been able to afford a home for my family, and to have paid it off by now. But circumstances didn’t allow that, so instead of piling in over our heads, we made different choices.

#17 akashic records on 04.24.17 at 7:15 pm

#133 smart contracts on 04.24.17 at 1:18 pm

#131 smart contracts on 04.24.17 at 12:23 pm

122 OffshoreObserver on 04.24.17 at 10:51 am

All of those and more can be included in the process in terms of technology. Unless the government wants the public keep paying for “lawyer tax” by issuing contract templates, of course.

Bloomberg Law

https://bol.bna.com/the-next-level-smart-contracts-and-real-estate-deals/

Pillsbury Law

https://www.pillsburylaw.com/en/news-and-insights/blockchain-the-impact-on-the-real-estate-industry.html

Deloitte

https://www2.deloitte.com/nl/nl/pages/real-estate/articles/blockchain-the-next-game-changer-in-real-estate.html

We are ages away from practicality. Even so, there is no clear benefit or cost saving. So, no point. — Garth

—-

Credentials, citations? Big claims, big proof.

#18 heartlost on 04.24.17 at 7:21 pm

DELETED

#19 Ogopogo on 04.24.17 at 7:21 pm

I was so excited to see the much-awaited public flogging of rapacious landlords that I misspelled my own moniker.

Garth’s protegé at Millennial Revolution puts it best:

“So if you are one of the many MANY greedy bastard landlords out there taunting your tenants and daring the government to tear you a new one, enjoy your new asshole, friend.”

http://www.millennial-revolution.com/rent/government-mess-housing-market/

#20 Moses and Bella on 04.24.17 at 7:24 pm

1989 bought a house before I had sold mine . Was right at the end of the bubble market then. I was young and thought things will only keep getting better I was lucky sold my home followed by a decade of falling prices it could have been a disaster. The same frenzied talk going on now, feels very much the same as it did back then. Learned a valuable lesson that year and have never forgotten it.

#21 Sam the Sham on 04.24.17 at 7:31 pm

“…T2-clone Emmanuel Macron (who sort of married his mom) will end up president.”

Yep, the Globalists, the New World Order and the Bilderberg gang (probably the same people) are breaking out the champagne. It looks like they will be able to continue to looting and strip-mining the world for their own benefit. They just have make sure the peasants are kept in their place. Now if they could get rid of that pesky Trump and that especially pesky Putin, the world will be theirs!

#22 TrumpForTheAges on 04.24.17 at 7:33 pm

Did you say exploding US economy? Let’s re-cap: Q1 GDP growth exploding at 1% or less….March jobs less than 100 K and Jan and Feb revised downwards. We are seeing some signs of inflation and without growth that would be called stagflation.

You always have condescending rebuttals so over to you to put me in my place?

#23 A Yank in BC on 04.24.17 at 7:38 pm

Hate to nitpick, but to be historically accurate American Independence came first. Louis XVI and Marie lost their heads about a decade and a half later.

#24 Smoking Man on 04.24.17 at 7:39 pm

Le pen I think the same thing will happen with the trump voters.
They will not be truthful at the water cooler or to a poster.

The fear of Ala Akbar will push many of them right. But France is home to generational in breeded commies. Fear always a bigger mover than hope.

But if she loses its because Frenchys working in other EU countries got to vote twice, a glitch that no one is doing anything about.

#25 Hmmmm on 04.24.17 at 7:39 pm

“The number of us who think house prices will rise from nosebleed levels in the next six months has soared to almost 49% – the most on record”

***************************************
And they will since economics is a matter of perception projected on the masses…BofC and government all good at fudging the numbers and projecting rainbows and unicorns.

The laws of economics are only a reality in University…

#26 akashic records on 04.24.17 at 7:44 pm

After getting beat up with Brexit and Trump, this was a big day for free-traders, globalists and others who think the world is okay and moving ahead.

Except for Canada.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-24/trump-announces-20-tariff-canadian-softwood-lumber-imports

The dispute largely stems from the fact most Canadian lumber is harvested on government-owned land while American lumber comes mainly from private land. The American lumber lobby has long accused Canadian governments of allowing companies to cut wood for less than market prices, which they say is an unfair subsidy.

The announcement is also the latest escalation in US trade wars under the new administration, and comes just hours after China warned it would retaliate if the US imposed tariffs on its steel imports.

Maybe consumers will enjoy depressed lumber and steel prices in Canada – perfectly timed to increase housing supply to combat prices with real market solution, instead of political hacks.

Maybe Canadian consumers will benefit, instead of “big corps can continue their global operations, moving money and labour around for the efficient manufacture of profits for shareholders”?

#27 Michael King on 04.24.17 at 7:47 pm

Interesting move by Le Pen today. Distancing herself from her old party looks desperate.

The Nanos results are not surprising considering the RE market in Vancouver. Listings are increasing and so are sales. This condo is in my building. Last fall a similar suite (same sq. ft.) went unsold @ $448k after being listed all summer @ $499k. $548k? Mon Dieu!
https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2158266/602-2370-w-2nd-avenue-vancouver-bc

#28 Scully on 04.24.17 at 7:47 pm

Low interest rates: The Bank’s Viagra for the House Horny Herd. Add a little mood lighting (HGTV’s Lust it or List it) and some government sanctioned lending incentives and bam you have more people swapping properties than a 70’s key party. Eventually this party has to end but no one thinks that it will – “too big to fail.” But Like Garth said, it’s not just up to the BOC – thank god – interest rates will be going up in the US soon as Americans are getting that old lusty feeling for houses again as well as other inflationary factors. I think at least two more this year but hoping for three. Our rates cannot stay in the ditch forever. They just can’t.

#29 For those about to flop... on 04.24.17 at 7:47 pm

pm
#121 CJ I haven’t read today’s comments but let me take a guess:

– Several posts about interest rates being too low and Poloz being the devil
– Several posts about how all government is stupid and wrong and we’re overtaxed
– Many happy posts about how the housing crash is just around the corner
– One post pointing out that the same people have been saying the housing crash is just around the corner for 8 years now
– Several incoherent posts from some drunk guy

How’d I do?

Not bad, but, u missed the dude from Taz who Flops relevant YVR Sales info onto the blog. Apparently there is a divergence between the Housing Industry “data” and Reality and no housing doesn’t always go up.

Your Welcome…………..

////////////////////////////////////

Hey Rainy, just wanted to thank you for the encouragement.

I’ll openly admit I’m not very good at what I do on here but when a guy writes you from Europe to say thanks, twice ,which happened the other day it puts a bit of wind back in my sails.

I don’t have any special tools to use and Broadway joked with me the other day about calling a realtor for the numbers, but I kind of like having someone on here verifying what I’m doing and as some of you would of noticed ,some of my cases lose money,some break even and some make a small profit.

I learn of the results at the same time you guys do ,I’m just trying to shine a torch on some of the darker corners of Vancouver real estate.

I’m one one of the biggest dumbo’s on here ,but luckily for me what I have been trying to help people with only takes time and a bit of ticker…

M42BC

#30 not 1st on 04.24.17 at 7:48 pm

Better give Smoking Man honorary top blog dog status. He has called 2 things. Trump and GTA market to run another 2 yrs. Right so far. Guy has uncanny vision.

#31 acdel on 04.24.17 at 7:50 pm

Read and judge for yourselves.

http://investmentwatchblog.com/the-next-bubble-to-burst-will-be-worse-than-the-subprime-mortgage-crisis/
———————————————————–
http://investmentwatchblog.com/11-facts-that-prove-that-the-u-s-economy-in-2017-is-in-far-worse-shape-than-it-was-in-2016/

#32 Ace Goodheart on 04.24.17 at 7:52 pm

The elephant in the room is Ontario’s debt. Yes they finally balanced the budget. No it doesn’t matter. Ontario is not a resource rich Province. We can’t just nationalize the oil fields or dig up something or other, tax the crap out of it and sell it down South. All those billions, and whatever they gift to folks who don’t want to work in those test cities, has to come from you and me.

Oh well. Latest batch of beer is ready. My own recipe. I play around with the primary malt extraction to get an ultra high alcohol volume. Topped 10% this round. So I just made 65 bottles of 10% alcohol beer, that tastes better than anything you can buy in the beer store, for $15.00. Grain, yeast and hops you can grow in your vegetable garden. House prices? Who cares? I own this pile of bricks and I brew my own grog. Bring on whatever……

#33 Linda on 04.24.17 at 7:54 pm

‘our most indented province’? Was that supposed to be indebted? Darn that auto correct!

As for Trump & ‘the promised measures’ one wonders if he might be experiencing a Barack attack on things he’d like to implement. Not by Obama, but by Congress. They learned it could be done & I rather think the appetite to continue blocking ‘the President’ has not abated. For one thing, Trump is not ‘one of us’ in the eyes of most of the Congress critters.

#34 Wrk.dover on 04.24.17 at 8:01 pm

The way things work in this brave new world, is that when Le Pen wins, the markets will soar to yet further heights. Watch…

#35 Erick on 04.24.17 at 8:04 pm

Macron may well win the French elections and become president – but the prime minister is nominated based on the majority at the parliament, which will be elected later in June.

It’s far from over – the potential for a big mess with no majority at the parliament is huge

Wait until July before rebalancing in favor of Europe :)

#36 the Jaguar on 04.24.17 at 8:14 pm

I am having that ‘deja vu all over again’ kind of feeling. Two candidates, one a populist from the right, one lefty from the left. Everyone (especially media types) is sure the populist cannot possibly be elected. The mere thought of it is beyond the pale. And then it happens. With the Brits pulling out of the EU it just might be that France doesn’t want to be left alone with Germany. They all detest one another anyway……

Vive la France Libre!

#37 Pete in St. Cesaire on 04.24.17 at 8:19 pm

Macron’s wife appeals to all of the ageing feminists who have ruined their youth (by being feminists) and are now desperately hoping that they can land a younger lover who will see them for the ‘gems’ that they believe themselves to be. Many movies and articles in France are pushing this narrative vis-a-vis Marcon’s wife.

#38 For those about to flop... on 04.24.17 at 8:22 pm

Hi Ace ,I just got back from California and as I stated on here I felt it necessary to toast my buddy Boom’s life with a brew from his home state Wisconsin.

Not that close to where he lived but it was the thought that counts.

Anyway I paid $3.50 U.S for a six pack and enjoyed it that much I went back for seconds.

Nice flavourful brew but smooth for a 6.2%

Boom,would have known of this beer and no doubt would have loved the name….Simpler Times…

M42BC
M64WI

http://www.traderjoes.com/fearless-flyer/article/3117

#39 Blobby on 04.24.17 at 8:24 pm

Trumps budget ain’t gonna happen. No way the powers that be will approve the wall.. or all these other cuts, adding to debt! That’d Be insane!

#40 Pete in St. Cesaire on 04.24.17 at 8:26 pm

Universal Income is something that people will have to learn to deal with. I see a lot of animosity concerning this subject (mainly driven by jealously, the standard Canadian reaction), however in the near future most jobs won’t be there for the people. AI and automation is going to replace the work of most people. Possibly as much as 65% of the current workforce will find themselves replaced by automation by 2025. There used to be a saying in Britain in the years when their woolen exports financed the empire: “when the looms weave by themselves, man will be free”. The question is- free to do what? The answer should be: Free to grow on a personal level, and as a society free to explore the boundaries of existence as this phenominal technology grows. This will be a monumental change for humanity and it should be embraced, not feared or loathed by petty people who can only see it as “someone is getting free money, damn them”. Eventually, everyone will be in the same boat. Automation is the only way, in the long run, for humans to advance in leaps and bounds. Petty jealousies will only add an unnecessary level of angst to those who will be first to be making the transformation to the inevitable post-work world. Many people see this new government policy as being akin to Communism. Well it is; however communism is what you will have when automation puts everyone on the same jobless playing field. Let’s just hope that this time the communal good is put first and the world won’t have to repeat the horrors of the past century. Because, if the communal good is not put first and foremost, it would be only too easy for the world to descend into a mindset that views the non-working classes as ‘useless-eaters’. The automation is coming like it or not. Learn how to embrace this huge change in a positive way. It will be a major upheaval and society would do well to realize in advance that there is no stopping it nor should there be. It would be instructive for all to read the 7th paragraph of ‘The Gods of the Copybook Headings” by Kipling, and see if we can’t strive to do better this time around.

#41 Victor V on 04.24.17 at 8:34 pm

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/new-rent-control-rules-could-put-condo-investors-in-a-negative-cash-flow-corner&pubdate=2017-04-24

Urbanation Inc., a Toronto condo research firm, says as it stands now, with a 20 per cent down payment on units completed in 2017, most investors end up with carrying costs that just equal market rents. That formula is based on purchase prices secured a few years ago, prior to construction.

“They are getting their mortgage and principal paid down and having capital appreciation,” said Shaun Hildebrand, senior-vice-president of Urbanation, in an interview. “They are essentially yielding zero per cent, on a net basis.”

#42 Workand Tumble on 04.24.17 at 8:35 pm

When you need to deploy 50,000 military personnel in France just to protect voters, you may have lost control of your country.

#43 How not to invest on 04.24.17 at 8:40 pm

Sad thing is the Porsche-driving pm was serious about “descending triangle”….

#44 CMHC is the problem on 04.24.17 at 8:53 pm

How can mortgage lenders keep approving mortgages when prices have detached from economic reality? CMHC is a massive problem amd needs to be shut down. Then let the free markets correct the housing bubble.

#45 Spaccone on 04.24.17 at 8:54 pm

Had been looking at the relative EAFE/Europe underperformance to US for a short while…was curious to see if over-weighting these in my international portion would work out.

Coincidentally, if in the link below you take the peak at 3.2, assume a pivot point at 2.2, target down would be 1.2 which it has more or less broached. Still tentative as it could take an unknown amount of time for a “bottom” to play out.

My main, almost only, type of at-a-glance chart I reference now and then for almost a year now…not for trading but personal curiosity and holding long-term. Bit of a distorted used of Stochastics and a take on long-term relativity…I’ve learned that the “bottoms” usually really test you and to avoid using with individual stocks.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24E1DOW%3ASPY&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p41963409785

#46 M on 04.24.17 at 8:55 pm

Marine Le Pen is a patriot first and foremost. Runs in the family.
It so happens that not all people are fond of globalization nor massive unchecked immigration.

25 years ago when I emigrated to Canada they wanted Univ degree, speak anglais AND francais (a bon attendeur salut ! …as they say)…and 10 grand in the pocket.

Was that a good policy ? U BET IT WAS.

…so get used to it: some people don’t like what other people do. Live with it.

#47 not 1st on 04.24.17 at 8:56 pm

Garth, guys on the National say TO is NY/Paris/London now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BksSv37crfs

#48 M on 04.24.17 at 8:58 pm

“She didn’t win the first round, and is unlikely to change that on the second. So markets figure photogenic, T2-clone Emmanuel Macron (who sort of married his mom) will end up president. ”

..not so fast Gartho baby. Most likely “markets”…and the MSM… and most here… have it wrong again.

Just sayin’. ..and have some puts in the proper places
on May 8th.

#49 For those about to flop... on 04.24.17 at 9:01 pm

Hey WULLY,hope you’re well.

I just saw a story on the Fort on the news and how the Red Cross has gone through 75% of the money that was donated and a small bulb came on in one of my two Tasmanian heads.

At the start of the season you bet me $5 that the Dockers would beat the Cats and I accepted and said lets make it $20.The Cats won the match.

And so if you can spare $20 at some stage could you donate it to the Red Cross and I hope you see it as a worthy benefactor of our b-grade sports bets.

Take care brother…

M42BC

#50 The Fat Lady on 04.24.17 at 9:04 pm

Who’s this ‘buck-tooth rodent” you are referring to?

#51 NoName on 04.24.17 at 9:05 pm

@bdwy sktrn

It’s a free app that I am using, (Android) called “web page reader”, there is paid version of app maybe there are few extra features in it. I just checked paid version allows user to specify characters to skip. I think ill stick with free version.

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=info.bell_pepper

#52 Spectacle on 04.24.17 at 9:05 pm

—Regarding —–
“Doug t on 04.24.17 at 7:02 pm
When the U.S.S.A drops a bomb North Korea we will REALLY have something to talk about.
RATM”

He’s (president Trump, drainer of swamps) going to Blast something (made in North Korea) completely and very visually , out of the sky! And it won’t make the cover of National Geographic Mag. And there will Not be any civilian casualties .
Tonight is not doomer night. Markets are going to rewarding new heights, as the basis of tonight’s blog post. Any addition to that TraderJim?

#53 Give me your $$$$ on 04.24.17 at 9:07 pm

Hmmmm, I want Wynne’s basic income too. Is the new foreign buyers tax funding this new initiative?

This Province stinks.

#54 Housing market to crash on 04.24.17 at 9:08 pm

Smokingman looking to get out of the housing bubble before it crashes. He an admitted master liar tells the bagholders to hold RE since there is more upside and yet he is selling and getting out of dodge before the bubble blows up in everyones faces. money is drying and the bubble is going to implode . Have you listed amd told the suckers to hold time bomb RE?

#55 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 04.24.17 at 9:10 pm

Lots of requests for rentals to “re-accommodate displaced tenants” buzing through our intranet at the office lately.

Looks like a lot of Landlords taking the opportunity to sell at a market high.

#56 Trojan House on 04.24.17 at 9:11 pm

RAISING TAXES DOES NOT RAISE TAX REVENUE.

#57 Victor V on 04.24.17 at 9:13 pm

Home Capital Group share price collapses again

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-04-24/cohodes-says-home-capital-needs-to-clean-house-video

#58 Xavier on 04.24.17 at 9:23 pm

“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.” Winston Churchill

If anyone here has any doubt, just visit Cuba, a country that was better than US and Canada in many areas, before Castro.

Where will the money come from for that basic income Kathleen Wynne is talking about? People are bleeding already…

#59 bigtowne on 04.24.17 at 9:30 pm

For me $17,000 works…I can move back to New Brunswick; fish; hunt and paint in the off-season. You know, I am kind of warming up to this Canada business. Like I never thought I would fit in in Ontario but that Kathleen girl rocks.

#60 Rexx Rock on 04.24.17 at 9:31 pm

Higher house prices reflect a strong and robust economy.Lower house prices reflect uncertainity and a slower economy with a decrease in consumer confidence.Higher unemployment also help house prices go lower.Common sense.So what do we have?

#61 BG on 04.24.17 at 9:36 pm

Le Pen will score higher than ever, but lose.
The “Front National” has been demonized for decades.

Another far right party, without their history, could have won.

Which means Macron will be president and maintain status quo in the sinking ship.
Which means far right will eventually win in 5 or 10 years in France.

#62 Jas on 04.24.17 at 9:39 pm

Things are so crazy on RE front in Vancouver that house inspection is not even a subject condition in purchasing contract. Home inspection business down by approx 50% !!

When will the idiots raise interest rate in Canada?
Don’t they have brains? Why can’t they raise it for homes and leave them stay put for business loans?
I guess they don’t have the ‘stones’

#63 cramar on 04.24.17 at 9:44 pm

Owning a home, but wished they didn’t! Of Millennials who own a house, and are planning to sell:

63% say mortgage and housing costs are making them cash poor

57% are worried about interest rates rising

36% feel that renting is a “better option”

http://www.citynews.ca/2017/04/24/buyers-remorse-millennial-homeowners-house-poor-want-sell/

——————

Hot RE is not just a Canadian phenomena. It is happening in some U.S. markets in California. Strongest sellers’ market ever seen by some.

http://nbr.com/2017/04/24/homes-are-flying-off-fast-this-spring-in-the-strongest-sellers-market-ever/

#64 Smoking Man on 04.24.17 at 9:53 pm

#54 Housing market to crash on 04.24.17 at 9:08 pm
Smokingman looking to get out of the housing bubble before it crashes. He an admitted master liar tells the bagholders to hold RE since there is more upside and yet he is selling and getting out of dodge before the bubble blows up in everyones faces. money is drying and the bubble is going to implode . Have you listed amd told the suckers to hold time bomb RE?
….

Laughing Con

Are you out of your mind. I haven’t worked since Aug. I’m running out of loot. My son gave me a great business plan which I will invest in with then proceeds of Shlong Branch.. know this, I’m super rich but im not where my wealth resides. it’s complicated.

I’m running away from commies. My short list. ANTIGUA, St Maarten

Where are the listings after Wynnes 16 steps hit the air waves. No where. This pig has another 15% to 25 % before inventory hits the market. My guess Dec 2017 will be the time to put it on the market. Before Feb where everyone know thinks that is the best time list.

My son launched his Web site a week ago and he’s got about 60k in deals and he doesn’t even have an office yet…today he gave his employer 2 weeks notice. Don’t worry he’s not setting up shop across the street.

We are looking in a much nicer nabourhood.

#65 Marius on 04.24.17 at 9:54 pm

The US corporate tax cut is dependant on the repeal of “Obama Care”. Poor people will have to die in order to increase corporate profits in the new gilded age.

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.24.17 at 10:06 pm

@#136 NoName
Hilarious.
Thanks for the laugh

#67 Lobster Man on 04.24.17 at 10:06 pm

Garth,

I have not listed. But a buyer’s agent has been at my door, making an offer for the buyer.

Should I have an agent to represent me, to help work out the deal, draft the sales agreement etc.?

Before I sign, I certainly will have a lawyer to go over the paperwork etc.

But in the meantime, do I need to acquire the service of a seller’s agent?

I live in Vancouver. And I have no “For Sale” sign, nothing to indicate that I am into “For sale by owner”.

What do you think?

Thanks,
LM

#68 Leo Trollstoy on 04.24.17 at 10:08 pm

Gold and gold stocks sank.

Gold has gone nowhere in over half a decade.

Dead. Only losers have had gold in their portfolio in the last 5 years. Literally.

#69 Smoking Man on 04.24.17 at 10:10 pm

Trader Jim

What do you think of this model, it’s just a simulation, honest.
How you play 400 to 1 Margin

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MSMXKAfWPUTCF-ejtMrqW4n29ZJGbyR0dMtQJ6ZZhnU/edit?usp=drivesdk

#70 data on 04.24.17 at 10:16 pm

BOOM

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/victoria-council-gives-tentative-approval-to-15-per-cent-foreign-buyers-tax-1.4082632

#71 The Great Gazoo on 04.24.17 at 10:18 pm

I came across this article which reference an RBC report from July of 2016 which identified the following reasons for rising home prices

https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2016/07/home-value-growth-dissected.html

RBC’s analysis found that four factors accounted for between 85% and 90% of those price increases since 1999:

1. Lower interest rates
2. Higher incomes
3. An increase in the percentage of incomes used to make mortgage payments
4. Larger down payment gifts from family members.

The remaining 10-15% can be explained by influences that are more “difficult to quantify,” RBC says, such as geographic constraints and foreign buying. Notable is the fact that the first two variables account for almost three quarters of price appreciation, its authors claim.

#72 conan on 04.24.17 at 10:33 pm

Looking like a trade war is in the works. No way this happens without The Great White North reciprocating.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wilbur-ross-softwood-tarrif-1.4083968

#73 GTAHouseHunter on 04.24.17 at 10:35 pm

Garth can you please research this and let us know :

BMO Bundles Uninsured Mortgages in a Canadian Bond First

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-17/bank-of-montreal-to-offer-mbs-as-canada-shrinks-mortgage-support

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.24.17 at 10:40 pm

@#29 Flop

It isnt just Rainclouds that appreciates the Flopster.
Keep up the good work.

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.24.17 at 10:44 pm

@#50 My ex Wife

“Who’s this ‘buck-tooth rodent” you are referring to?”
____________________________________________

Well…..if memory serves…….you?

#76 Smoking Man on 04.24.17 at 10:46 pm

I can’t wait to write a chapter in my next book.

The title.
On the road to death shit happens. Cover is amazing.

Just think of how many loony lefties I’ve triggered. They get me in cra court but can’t find a trace to my off shore loot. I’m just a confessed drunken fiction writer with a long history of bull shit.

I mean look at what I drive. A shit pick up truck, no ac, and role down windows.

Lefties I got like 42 million tax free in an account in an island some where.

Bahahaha

#77 Rates vs Capital on 04.24.17 at 10:55 pm

Instead of constantly dancing around the foreign capital issue, and denying its influence, lets look at some quick stark facts:

According to the BC provincial governments own data, not realtor ‘franken numbers,’ foreign buyers constituted over 20% of purchases in Metro Vancouver communities of Richmond and Burnaby. Is that a negligible number? Is that anywhere close to the supposed ‘5% of buyers’?

In the US, only 8% of buyers caused a national 32% price decline. So if 8% of buyers caused this massive price distortion, why would anyone think that the supposed 5% of purchasers with foreign capital would not cause a price distortion.

Prices are set on the margin – in the old paradigm it was set by deaths, job relocations, and divorces –now its set by foreign capital. Once a place is bought for some ridiculous price by foreign capital looking to cleanse itself, it becomes the benchmark – all sellers on that street set the price based on that one sale. And prices are sticky, and sellers stubborn, so those prices will be up for a very long time.

Now with the GTA, you can play the denial game as Vancouver did for close to a decade, and live with the social, economic, and political consequences of letting your city become a stock market for houses. That includes social strife, increased homelessness, inability of companies to attract or retain staff, an exodus of families, and local economies going under from a lack of disposable income and ghost neighbourhoods.

Or you can look at actual longitudinal examples like the US or Vancouver and understand what a KEY driver of prices increases are…and set policy accordingly.

Where there is smoke, there is usually fire. Let the stats speak for themselves – because they credibly can without reference to, or reliance on, anecdotes.

Speculation by Canadians is as responsible as low rates for overall price appreciation. Foreigners are a distraction, interesting, but incapable of setting market price. We did that. — Garth

#78 Smoking Man on 04.24.17 at 10:58 pm

Globalists, they want to disarm, destroy stong family culture so they get the final word on who gets culled to please aliens.

Lucky for you bastards a rebal from Nictonite has your back.

#79 Mark on 04.24.17 at 10:58 pm

“When will the idiots raise interest rate in Canada?
Don’t they have brains? Why can’t they raise it for homes and leave them stay put for business loans?
I guess they don’t have the ‘stones’”

Interest rates need to be lowered, not raised in Canada. The economy is comatose. Unemployment is quite high and very much under-reported. Housing prices are falling in all major Canadian cities. Inflation non-existent, despite significant depreciation in the currency over the past few years.

But you do make a good point about interest rates as applicable to specific types of collateral. The OSFI could increase the regulatory capital requirements for holding mortgage loans, while dropping them on business loans. This would push the banking sector to start making more business loans which would help put the economy back on its feet. However, with most levels of government captured by the RE lobby, including the CMHC, it seems quite unlikely they’ll do this until its blatently obvious that current standards for capital are completely inadequate for the risk involved in Canadian housing finance.

#80 Entrepreneur on 04.24.17 at 11:11 pm

Trump did warn us Canadians about getting tough on us. But I like the dairy farmer on his reply “why not buy Canadian like buy American slogan.” Do the same with the lumber industry. Trump gets tough, get tough back. But I think the globalist like the control.

As for the Ontario’s basic income testing is avoiding the real issues. Also, giving someone money to live on devalues their existence which creates other issues. Jobs are what is needed and small business entry level. But again like #21 Sam the Sham said it “…the Globalist on breaking out the Champagne…”

As for the robots replacing us, is this when people have had enough, The Revolution is in making. Or is it happening now.

I think we live in a two world country: recession/depression. A recession by what leaders call it to keep the gravy train going but we also live in a depression where that dream does not come close to reality. Reality is getting obsolete by many. Just a thought.

#81 Ron Antopolski on 04.24.17 at 11:16 pm

Don’t rental properties become a more attractive investment in a ‘tax the rich’ regime?

Meaning that if the top marginal rates are raised, then you get the most bang for your buck when deducting your rental property expenses.

#82 Trump Sold Out to NeoCons in 2 Months on 04.24.17 at 11:33 pm

The polls were rather accurate for the first round. And if that accuracy continues for the second round Macron will become president defeating Le Pen by double digits as the establishment parties all back him. That would mean a continuation of the status quo.

Macron seems keen to depose Assad and backs all the Borgist ideas on foreign interventions. Of course, as another Davos man, he is firmly in the EU & globalist camp. The media will be promoting the line that populism has been defeated and is done for now at least on the continent. Merkel & Juncker must be very pleased.

#83 Victor V on 04.24.17 at 11:38 pm

http://www.bnn.ca/it-will-end-in-tears-a-drop-in-housing-prices-would-hurt-the-loonie-says-currency-analyst-1.732463

One currency analyst says that a drop in housing prices will hurt the Canadian dollar.

Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive, told BNN in an interview that there’s a clear link between the future of the loonie and home prices in Canada, particularly in hot markets like the Greater Toronto Area.

“There will be losses,” he said, predicting a drop in home prices. “And I think the trade is on the Canadian dollar – the first trade anyway – because you don’t know where the losses are going to be. But they will be in Canada, and it will be brutal once it finally happens.”

#84 T-Rev on 04.24.17 at 11:44 pm

I should probably get off this blog and get some sleep, but I cannot believe the amount of anti-capitalist, anti-risk, anti-work, anti-entrepreneurialism, pro-interventionalist, pro-rent control, pro-guaranteed income, pro-SJW, emasculated wards of the govt there are these days on this comment section and on the news.

People- I know you love to blame others for your woes. I know you’re the most entitled, coddled generation in history. I’m one of you (barely; if I was a year older I’d be grouped with those tired and lonely middle children of history, the gen x-ers). But NONE of these social safety nets can exist without the money to pay for it- and there will be no money if you stifle free enterprise. Sure, some controls are necessary, but the generation I see today is crossing dangerously into the “confiscate and redistribute” mentality. It’s a slippery slope boys and girls, a slippery slope. Man up/Woman up, put on your big kid pants, make some sacrifices, and earn it, for chrissakes. Stop acting like a bunch of geldings waiting for their next pail of government oats.

#85 T-Rev on 04.24.17 at 11:50 pm

Oh, and Gartho, quit it with the “head and shoulders” “90-day moving average” “double back twist with a half camel toe” BS. Tech analysis is the snake oil of retail investing, and you know it. That’s why you talk about broad basket ETFs and balanced portfolios, not active trading. Leave the smoke and mirrors to your Saturday guys who need to make a living off trading fees and trailing commissions, but don’t sacrifice your own credibility by paying any attention to it.

But please, talk all you want about descending inverted triangles…

#86 Kool Aid on 04.24.17 at 11:57 pm

What do 1973, 1981, 1987, 2000, 2007 & 2017 have in common?

This time it’s different.

In 2009 for a period of about a year you could have purchaseed bit coin at the rate of 13,000 coins per $1USD.

That’s different.

#87 AisA on 04.25.17 at 12:17 am

You paid what for a USED house that’s been paid for 16 times over since it was built ?!?!?

common phrase heard in 2018….

#88 Stock Picker on 04.25.17 at 12:17 am

I think the numbers coming out of the EU are as real and as investable as announcements from the Real Estate Board. I suspect the numbers are dummies up as a defense against a growing wave of populism. Kind of like when Trudeau says everything is going to be sunny days. The numbers don’t support that position vis a vis the European investment. Announcing better days ahead and actual corporate profits and growth are another. Growth in the EU so far is negative. I’ll invest when they have bankable news…..not just some deswrateliberal blowing smoke up my ass.

#89 Jas on 04.25.17 at 12:22 am

#79 Mark on 04.24.17
…with most levels of government captured by the RE lobby, including the CMHC, it seems quite unlikely they’ll do this until its blatently obvious that current standards for capital are completely inadequate for the risk involved in Canadian housing finance.

Yes, Mark, I agree. And it means at the earliest opportunity, people must vote these idiots out at every level of govt. And when they come to your door asking for support, tell these idiots to their face. Just kick ’em OUT. Oh, it is sickening to see it all.

By the way, can someone tell me how to enter bold and italicized text in comments. Is text enclosed by some kind of tag? Thanks

#90 Fortune500 on 04.25.17 at 12:28 am

When I talk to the people I know who you would call ‘middle class’ in Canada, mainly in smaller towns and cities, those without government jobs … they all see a house as a retirement plan. Really, they see it as their only viable option.

With their salaries stagnating, and costs rising way beyond inflation, their only hope of a comfortable retirement is that someone will overpay for their family home.

The primary residence retirement plan IS the only retirement plan for those without defined benefit pensions. And that is a heck of a lot of our population and growing.

Again, I have to conclude, that without a substantial increase in interest rates over the short time, this thing will continue to limp on for at least another decade.

#91 fishman on 04.25.17 at 12:33 am

Trump’s a wild man. Scooped the Commerce Dept. & released softwood treaty particulars a day before official; Pretty arcane stuff to be stealing the glory from the nerd negotiators. Could come back & bite. I’ll bet Garth knows political danger when pissing off your negotiators that were in the trenches for months.

Western (B.C. interior) mills take most of the hit as expected. Looks like around 20% with a three month retro penalty clause. This is a weird tariff because the lower the price & higher the volume the more the tariff. Patterned for anti dumping.

Doesn’t matter for the Canadian outfits like Canfor,Interfor etc. cause they been buying mills & timber in the U.S. southeast. Sending their tradesmen down their to train up their workers. Meanwhile shipping Texas made C&C machines up to the small mill towns to manufacture their specialized stuff for the American Mills.

These Canucks are going to eat thoseYankee mill operators lunch. I wonder if they’ll be a running to uncle Donny when Interfor jacks up output from 350,000 to 750,00 bd. ft. a day & knocks out 100 men from a 250 man payroll like they did here. The U.S. millworker makes 1/2 the wages of a B.C. man all things in except medical. Down their its paid by the Co. & don’t know what % but apparently its a big deal.

Our marginal northern mills will probably go down but the biggies are going on a tear. They control all the good lumber from up here & with the low grade have vertical integration. Rich guys get houses made from B.C. lumber,the rest get fast growing, soft,splitting, warping crap from Georgia or whatever. Whatever , it’ll be the big B.C. lumber companies cutting it.

#92 Fortune500 on 04.25.17 at 12:36 am

#40 Pete in St. Cesaire 100% agree. If you are not following the trends in AI and the warnings coming from literally the smartest people of our generation (Hawkings, Elon Musk, Bill Gates, etc.), then go educate yourself before you talk about the issue. There is a very, very good chance that there will not be ‘work’ available for a massive amount of the population in a very short time.

And no, this is not the same thing they have been saying for generations. When the ‘dumb’ machines that revolutionized the manufacturing process stole the jobs they did not teach themselves how to move to the next level of complexity and then the next level, and the next. That is the difference between your father’s fear of robots impacting the labor market and what your children are about to face.

#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.25.17 at 12:45 am

The broken scale.
If he bought it at Costco, he can take it back for a full refund.

#94 Pete from St. Cesaire on 04.25.17 at 1:04 am

giving someone money to live on devalues their existence which creates other issues.
————————————————-
That is precisely the wrong attitude. Only when mankind can progress beyond physical work can we begin to really develop our true potential. The automation is coming, and everyone should be welcoming of it. It will be a tumultuous time, some people will see a reduction in their standard of living but many other people around the world will be able to jump straight from a hard labour/tribal/agrarian life into the better life afforded by these advancements in technology, but it will be a necessary growing pain of the human race. If we fail to accept this transition in the proper way will be doomed as a species.

#95 Broker on 04.25.17 at 1:08 am

#67 lobster man

– definitely seek a selling agent that can determine if the offer is good. It could be way under market. Steve saretzky is a good person to talk to, numbers guy, always in van real estate media.

– why not put it on the market and expose the property to 13,000 agents and their buyers. If that buyer wants it, they should be prepared to compete.

Good luck with the sale.

#96 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.25.17 at 1:09 am

About “buck teeth”.
Way back in high school we used to tease the Chinese kids a lot.
But now they they are on top of the food chain in Vancouver.
Karma bites again.

#97 Sim on 04.25.17 at 1:24 am

Just bought my first new car today. By new car I mean a 2015 certified pre-owned Acura TLX from Burrard Acura. Thought it best to let someone else depreciate it by $20,000. That new car smell costs too much.

Spent over two hours haggling $2,000 off the price and ensuring I got a full 5 year bumper to bumper warranty. Pretty sure I invested more time into buying this car than anyone buying a condo in beautiful British Columbia.

I couldn’t buy a car without warranties covering every moving part. It is unfathomable to me that people can sink thier life savings into a condo or a house without an inspection. The risk of buying a lemon is just too great.

#98 For those about to flop... on 04.25.17 at 1:29 am

Hey Broadway, if you can be bothered can you give me some numbers on these recent sales.

10619 137a St. Surrey

1401 – 6659 Southoaks Cresent Burnaby

5626 Elizabeth St. Vancouver

My guess is that it’s a mixed bag.

One person got a ” I love real estate ” tattoo

One person got a ” I hate real estate ” tattoo

And one person drew a big fat “Zero” around a mole on their arm…

M42BC

#99 Freedom First on 04.25.17 at 3:05 am

Smoking Man is selling the farm. Top is in or near.

Lots of hurt coming to the house obsessed.

Reminds me of decades ago when I use to occasionally wear a suit and even go to weddings. Remember watching most of the single guys stampeding to get the garter the Bride threw over her shoulder. Those guys really got screwed too. Facts.

#1
Freedom First
Master of Freedomonics
Also known as “Boss”

#100 Fish on 04.25.17 at 3:07 am

Did the government get the Phoenix system working yet, so they can reimburse government employees the
Monies that was earned by them

#101 Steve Jobs on 04.25.17 at 3:18 am

Garth, any chance you can update your blogging software to something that displays better on a smart phone.

It’s hard to read your blog on a smart phone.

#102 Doghouse Dweller on 04.25.17 at 8:11 am

The US economy will also bring more of a response from the Fed.
So what`s pessimism Poloz going to do now that the Golden Golem of Greatness has grabbed Yoga Boy by the softwood ? Where`s the floor for the CDN $ getting creamed in an all out NAFTA trade war ?

#103 Vit on 04.25.17 at 8:18 am

#29 For those about to flop. LOL

#104 jess on 04.25.17 at 8:40 am

DOJ joins whistleblower lawsuit against UnitedHealth Group, WellMed …
http://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/…/doj-joins-whistleblower-lawsuit-against-unitedhea...
Feb 19, 2017 – Civil lawsuit alleges insurer overcharged Medicare hundreds of millions by claiming its members were sicker than they were.

behavioural algo
see. -flawed Ingenix database.

Algorithmic collusion and price-fixing
https://mathbabe.org/2017/01/09/algorithmic-collusion-and-price-fixing/

#105 Victor V on 04.25.17 at 8:53 am

Toronto lawyer says $1B of Ontario investors’ money lost in syndicated mortgages

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/syndicated-mortgages-losses-1.4083261

More than $1 billion of investors’ money has likely been lost in syndicated mortgage investments in Ontario, according to a Toronto real estate lawyer.

On Monday CBC News reported that more than 120 Chinese investors in the Greater Toronto Area were set to lose nearly $9 million in these kinds of investments, but David Franklin says that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

#106 TurnerNation on 04.25.17 at 8:54 am

#2 Cott. It was the one with highlights.

Yes I too noticed decending wedge on Dow and positioned my self to it. Little gem was Trivago – TRVG.US – bought a week ago, exited yest. Will get back in later. Priceline redux?

Investors friend, VIX is important to options pricing. Option are a hedging tool. Risk reducing in theory.

Also facinating is how they are priced vs. alternate used to that money.
Eg. one may put $10k into a Govt T-Bill earning 1%, then leverage 90% of that and paying 2.5% interest, and invest this into equities yielding 3.5% dividend.
Or…put that same amount into a Call option and sell a put (synthetic long position). Put-call parity all that.

Beyond me I’m not a math guy. I only know how to buy and sell stuff. The mark of the least.

#107 Johnny Boy on 04.25.17 at 8:58 am

#76 Smoking Man on 04.24.17 at 10:46 pm
I can’t wait to write a chapter in my next book.
The title.
On the road to death shit happens. Cover is amazing.
Just think of how many loony lefties I’ve triggered. They get me in cra court but can’t find a trace to my off shore loot. I’m just a confessed drunken fiction writer with a long history of bull shit.
I mean look at what I drive. A shit pick up truck, no ac, and role down windows.
Lefties I got like 42 million tax free in an account in an island some where.
Bahahaha
………………………………………………………………….
Smoking Man if you have 42 million in a tax free savings account then why are you selling Shlongbranch and claiming your broke and unemployed?
A. If I had 42 million in a tax free savings account then I wouldn’t even care about selling Shlongbranch I would just walk away, better yet I would give it to someone.
B. You just sold your boat and made some profit. What 500 bucks?
C. You drive a beat up pick up truck, give me a break!
D. ” I got like 42 million in an off shore account somewhere” Hell if I had 42 million I sure as hell would no where it was and in fact I would be near it so I could count my shekels.
E. If your were trying to evade the CRA then you have failed, how many readers here are either working for the CRA and or have friends or relatives that work for the CRA. Don’t blame us when they come knocking at 57 James.
F. You are by far the worlds worst prevaricator.
G. Lastly Your an asshole for staying here in the great white north, 42 million sure. But you are entertaining I have to admit, every day I laugh at your daily jesting in the Kings court.

#108 Duifus on 04.25.17 at 9:06 am

Is it safe to say that through negligence governments have mofoed the economy?

#109 eVerLasting on 04.25.17 at 9:08 am

The universal income pilot project is simply a “I’ll buy your vote” scheme. The liberal left are pushing this experiment of democratic socialism like never before.

It’s an easy game for them to play; for everyone with a wallet, you have two other people voting how to spend your money. All the other two offer to the table is an opinion. game over.

#110 soost on 04.25.17 at 9:30 am

Garth – lovin the posts lately!

I gotta keep mentioning that the first step – in the domestic speculator scalping chain – is non-arms lengths sales from builders to friends family and trades (and their families). Halt the practice.

Also regulating agents is not a minor footnote. It needs to be done.

#111 Lee on 04.25.17 at 9:51 am

Tim Hudak in the Post today gives very compelling argument for why real estate prices will continue upwards in Toronto. I know he is not the most unbiased opinion-holder. Still, he’s not an idiot without a reputation to uphold.

#112 LeoKnowsDidley on 04.25.17 at 10:01 am

#68….Leo,

What market has outperformed over the last decade: gold stocks or stock market? Yup…gold.

Over last five years you are correct but that would be like comparing the stock market for the period of 2007- 2012?

If you look at the SPY or DJ, or NAS, since 2000 the performance is not great. More importantly if you compare corporate and government debt to GDP over that same time frame is it alarming. Maybe educate yourself and look at a chart that shows government debt over the last eight years of the Obama admin….the debt incurred has not generated the needed growth and the trend is continuing.

#113 isuckless on 04.25.17 at 10:04 am

French revolution came after US and without the US one it would not happen.

Cuba: was whorehouse before Castro, it survived brutal sanctions for 50 years. What would happen to Canada if the same sanctions were imposed by the US? Was it worth? I don’t know but they resisted.

Universal income: great stuff but not for Ontario. We do not have high employment, free energy and plenty of cash.
This reminds me of Lenin modifying Marx’s presumption that the socialism will emerge in the highly developed country and (Lenin) said that is BS, we can have socialism in agrarian Russia. We all know how that worked. I am afraid the universal income will work the same in Ontario

#114 Pre-retiree on 04.25.17 at 10:05 am

@113 Lee
“Still, he’s (Tim Hudak) not an idiot without a reputation to uphold.”

Well, maybe not, but he is speaking from a biased perspective on which his job depends. I put much more faith in Marc Cohodes who has shorted HCG and Equitable. His information seems to indicate that the level of mortgage fraud is much larger than one can see at the moment (he quotes 5 billion – see BNN video Apr 24 – no link, use Google); this whole story may well bring us to “l’épiphanie” that Garth mentions.

#115 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 04.25.17 at 10:09 am

Lee on 04.25.17 at 9:51 am
Tim Hudak in the Post today gives very compelling argument for why real estate prices will continue upwards in Toronto. I know he is not the most unbiased opinion-holder. Still, he’s not an idiot without a reputation

Lol you are kidding. The post is media = paid for propaganda. Tim Hudak is a paid shill who lies for money. RE agents are trying to cash out before it crashes. Smokingman a known liar is trying to cash out as we speck. Condo buyers now hold cash flow negative investments whos values are falling. Realtor shill has contributed in destorying Canada . Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#116 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 04.25.17 at 10:14 am

Look at tbr 10 year US bond going Up UPPA Up which mean the the housing bubble will dropa drop very hard on thr downa side. You realtor shill is a finito

#117 Doug in London on 04.25.17 at 10:20 am

@Pete in St. Cesaire, post #40:
Good post, well thought out and explained. During the 19th and first part of the 20th centuries, when technology eliminated jobs in one field, jobs appeared somewhere else and re-employed those people. For example, when the railways traded steam locomotives, which were quite labour intensive to run, for diesels which were less labour intensive a lot of people were put out of work. However, they were soon re-employed doing other jobs like building cars or electrical appliances. That went on until about the 1970s, when more jobs were lost than created. Meanwhile governments have hid the facts by manipulating the figures, such as not counting people who have given up looking for work, so the the “official” unemployment rate looks lower than the actual rate.

Fast forward to the present, it’s hard to see how as many new jobs will be created to replace those lost as the rate of automation increases. It’s not hard to see how in such a society these changes will cause a lot of social problems. It’s no doubt a major cause of the angst among voters that has led to Brexit or voting in Donald Trump. As usual, the elite has completely missed that this mentality exists and why. So is this guaranteed income the solution? I don’t know, but it’s probably part of the solution, coupled with other changes like a shorter work week so more people can have jobs.

On an unrelated topic, has anyone else noticed it’s ANZAC Day?

#118 traderJim on 04.25.17 at 10:29 am

#107 Johnny Boy

Glad to see you’ve rediscovered your sense of humour, finally.

#119 traderJim on 04.25.17 at 10:34 am

#69 Smokey

I don’t have time to analyze your spreadsheet, but first glance doesn’t tell me much.

I am a strong proponent of KISS, because I am old. To short something I just sell (short) the appropriate ETF. or buy puts. Sometimes I buy inverse ETFs even, god forbid, the ridiculous 2x leveraged ones (I know all about the pitfalls, some people go to the casino, I play with leveraged ETFs, usually the oil based ones, SCO and UCO. It’s a fools game, and I am definitely a fool. Well, I am not as smart as the multi-billionaire, Wharton grad President, unlike some geniuses here, let’s put it that way).

#120 Mark on 04.25.17 at 10:36 am

“One currency analyst says that a drop in housing prices will hurt the Canadian dollar.”

That doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. If housing prices were to drop, say, 20% tomorrow, that’s a lot of consumer demand that will disappear in the Canadian economy simply due to a reduction in confidence (if not the actual ability to borrow money). Borrowing Canadian dollars is inherently a short on the currency. Consumption by Canadians, largely on imported goods, also suppresses the currency.

Throw in a likely acceleration in the demand to repay CAD$-denominated debt, and the Canadian dollar is likely to go quite a bit higher as housing prices go down. Just as the US dollar basically shot to the moon when they suffered their RE collapse, requiring extensive QE and other policy in an attempt to bring it back to Earth.

#121 traderJim on 04.25.17 at 10:40 am

The loonie

Down roughly 0.5% today. That means, let’s see, on a (not quite) 7 figure position about a $4,500 (loonie) gain. Just today.

If you see a buyer of 10 or 20 FXC calls with a 71 strike at a price of $1.50, odds are that is me, taking some profits and playing that crazy short-term trading game again. Will I ever learn? I think I am an addict.

Trump and his cabinet will alternately hammer the loonie with protectionist talk, and then talk DOWN the US buck (as Trump does seem to have a rather mercantilist view of things).

Utopia for traders.

#122 Herb on 04.25.17 at 10:44 am

#58 Xavier,

you seem to be one of the wingnuts to the right of reason who know nothing except the propaganda they’ve imbibed. I don’t know how well Cubans fared when US corporations (and the Mafia) owned and were running the country, except that there seemed to have been enough disaffected Cubans to revolt and throw them out.

For a start, a few points about US foreign interests and involvement:

1. The USA is interested only in those foreign countries where American corporate interests are at stake. There also are strategic interests, which include expanding US influence, or limiting the influence another country (Russia, for instance), and alliances and the stationing of “assets” for global defence of those interests.

2. Should those interests be threatened, regime change is called for.

3. The first step in regime change is to destroy the local economy, by trade embargo for instance, causing pain to the population and leading it to revolt, or at least vote, against the government.

4. Regime change is advanced by propaganda, funds, “advice” and, if required, weapons flowing into the country to support opposition to the government.

5. If those measures don’t work, invasion is there as a last resort.

So by all means look at the socialism that you think ruined Cuba, see how Cuba got that way, and ask yourself what socialism had to do with it. You could even follow this game plan back to the 19th Century, or forward it to the present (and other parts of the world).

The important thing is to deal in facts, not ism’s.

#123 traderJim on 04.25.17 at 10:52 am

#59 bigtowne

I like your thinking, but $17,000 is just not enough if you ask me. I was hearing rumours of $30k plus. I guess that was for a couple.

You could do it though if you are not materialistic and live fairly simply, nothing wrong with that.

Can you get free dental and other benefits too? That would make it more workable.

I do like the idea of spending a year in Aix-en-Provence and having someone else pay for it.

#124 MarketPundit on 04.25.17 at 11:12 am

After recent news about Home Capital Group problems, here is is the new article regarding syndicate mortgages:

Toronto lawyer says $1B of Ontario investors’ money lost in syndicated mortgages

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/syndicated-mortgages-losses-1.4083261

Shadow banking, financial fraud, etc.. Tough times ahead for Canadian RE – no doubt!

#125 Johnny Boy on 04.25.17 at 11:12 am

My wife said the other day should we list too? I said sure and go where? She is close to her sister and brother here in the city. Her sister lives in the Annex and her brother lives in Leslieville. We are in Riverdale. So I dump my home and rent? The homes in my area that are available are going for $4K per month. I need a place for my two motorcycles and a massive junkyard dog. In order to keep some property I need to get way, way out of town completely, move my business and loose my friends. Forget it I’m staying put. The house is paid for what do i care.

#126 conan on 04.25.17 at 11:48 am

RE: #119 Doug in London on 04.25.17 at 10:20 am

“On an unrelated topic, has anyone else noticed it’s ANZAC Day?”

Yep, one bar is getting flack for having a wet t shirt contest on the same day.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-25/monsoons-beach-party/8471016

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anzac_Day

Hard to contemplate that ANZAC could be called on to help with N Korea.

The fate of the World is in Donald’s hands. A lot of people don’t like that concept anymore.

#127 Hathat on 04.25.17 at 12:15 pm

I’m interested in hearing how the universal income pilot project goes. A lot of the money will (hopefully) come from removing overpaid gov workers regulating EI, Welfare, CPP, OAS etc. With universal income, none of these things will be necessary anymore. Also, as said above, with jobs disappearing we need to think about where the future is moving, the old 9-5 won’t work anymore. Also, a lot of work is moving to contract positions, and this allows for less worry with the job market moving this way. If anything it might be more efficient than having someone sit at a desk all day at some bs job, and instead actually produce something necessary when required (contract positions).

#128 John of Grant on 04.25.17 at 12:29 pm

#10 Investors Friend

Stock Market Volatility Most Certainly Did not plunge Today

“Volatility plunged 25% in a single session.”

********************************************

I know the above comment is not a main theme at all today and just a tiny side comment from Garth. So don’t take offense at the following.

I am on self-imposed hiatus from posting until June 1. However, I believe the hiatus rules allow one post per month.

Volatility is a measure of how much a stock index jiggles up and down. It is impossible that actually volatility fell on a day the DOW rose 216 points. See Malcolm Gladwell’s book Blink. This idea that volatility fell today is one of those things that you know at a glance is wrong.

I suppose the VIX might have fallen today. The VIX is some weird measure of implied volatility based on futures exchanges. If it fell today then it most certainly is not a measure of actual volatility.

Wise investors tune out any mention of VIX. It has absolutely nothing to do with actual investing where people own companies. It is just part of the side-show of zero-sum gambling that happens on the futures market. If anyone mentions VIX, stop listening immediately.
————————————————————

If your volatility measure is just the last day, then yes, volatility increased. (move on the Dow was 216 yesterday vs -31 on Friday) But, if your volatility measure includes more history, say 50 days, and the new data is closer to the average than the 51 day ago data that fell out of the average, volatility by this measure went down. For the Dow, the 50 day SD went from 190 to 174 even as the Dow surged.

#129 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 04.25.17 at 12:32 pm

The house of cards is starting to fall apart as speackers are in financial trouble and need to get out before they lose it all. Their Condo’s which they use HELOC for down payment is cash flow negative and prices are set to CRASH! and CRASH! HARD! in the process of losing their SFH . This bubble when it implodes will be brutal. Even Smokingman is getting out before you sucker even know what happened. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-) http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/rent-control-condo-urbanation-1.4084384

#130 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 04.25.17 at 12:34 pm

MarketPundit on 04.25.17 at 11:12 am
After recent news about Home Capital Group problems, here is is the new article regarding syndicate mortgages:

Toronto lawyer says $1B of Ontario investors’ money lost in syndicated mortgages

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/syndicated-mortgages-losses-1.4083261

Shadow banking, financial fraud, etc.. Tough times ahead for Canadian RE – no doubt!

Make no mistake people borrowed from their HELOC’s to make said investments. If bankers call in the loan many would be force to put their houses on the market. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#131 Ace Goodheart on 04.25.17 at 12:40 pm

RE: #73 GTAHouseHunter on 04.24.17 at 10:35 pm

Garth can you please research this and let us know :

BMO Bundles Uninsured Mortgages in a Canadian Bond First

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-17/bank-of-montreal-to-offer-mbs-as-canada-shrinks-mortgage-support

Wondering if these are CDO type “default swap” tranches or the usual “debt in asset’s clothing” type switch that they do with these things.

Collateral (the mortgaged house) held by the bank (lien on title). Debt obligation (payback in the event of default) held by? ……..

In other words, these are uninsured mortgages, which would make them subprime? (ie, people who cannot qualify for CDIC).

Someone is insuring them somehow (bank wouldn’t hold this stuff directly). Who gets burned with the defaults? That would be the research project. Then short the crap out of whomever or whatever is holding the bag….

#132 Fed-up on 04.25.17 at 12:41 pm

127 Johnny Boy on 04.25.17 at 11:12 am
My wife said the other day should we list too? I said sure and go where? She is close to her sister and brother here in the city. Her sister lives in the Annex and her brother lives in Leslieville. We are in Riverdale. So I dump my home and rent? The homes in my area that are available are going for $4K per month. I need a place for my two motorcycles and a massive junkyard dog. In order to keep some property I need to get way, way out of town completely, move my business and loose my friends. Forget it I’m staying put. The house is paid for what do i care.
———————————————————————-

Wow only 50K per year in rent? With a balanced portfolio composed of…oh never mind.

#133 dr. talc on 04.25.17 at 12:41 pm

58 Xavier on 04.24.17 at 9:23 pm
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.” Winston Churchill

If anyone here has any doubt, just visit Cuba, a country that was better than US and Canada in many areas, before Castro.

Where will the money come from for that basic income Kathleen Wynne is talking about? People are bleeding already…


Everyone loves to quote Churchill: he was a war criminal

Even before ww2, where he set a record for dead Brits:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/world-war-one/11561066/Gallipoli-was-Churchills-folly-but-not-only-his.html

Read “Dead Wake” about the Lusitania,, It is accepted by many that Churchill let it happen on purpose

#134 A Reply to #128 conan on 04.25.17 at 12:55 pm

Who in the wide world doesn’t love Trump’s brinkmanship, especially when nuclear weapons are involved? Until the bombs start raining down, we can point and laugh at all of Trump’s antics.

Is there an emotion combining mirth and dread?

“I love the smell of napalm in the morning.”
— Robert Duvall as Lieutenant Colonel William “Bill” Kilgore, Apocalypse Now

“If we have nuclear weapons why can’t we use them?”
— Donald Trump

#135 Stan Broock on 04.25.17 at 1:27 pm

CAD is in free fall,

Poloz is certainly pretty happy. Time to cut the rates again?

#136 Capt. Serious on 04.25.17 at 1:34 pm

#101 Steve Jobs on 04.25.17 at 3:18 am
Garth, any chance you can update your blogging software to something that displays better on a smart phone.

It’s hard to read your blog on a smart phone.

Read the AMP version of the page. Just google search greaterfool.com and it’ll be one of the links at the top. QED.

#137 Paul B on 04.25.17 at 2:05 pm

Garth – Great blog post!

#138 Julia on 04.25.17 at 2:05 pm

#133 Ace Goodheart

Uninsured does not equal sub prime. If uninsured they are not high ratio mortgages (over 80%) and don’t require insurance.
If the bank still requires insurance due to the quality of the borrower and the borrower can’t qualify for insurance then I fail to see how they can qualify for a mortgage at all.

Both insured and non insured loans can be subprime.

It will be interesting to see what happens when/if house prices fall and some of these uninsured mortgages become high ratio.

#139 joblo on 04.25.17 at 2:07 pm

Time for Truduh to send the Canadian trade minister to Wershingtun.

Ya know the one that cried in Belgium.

Dun fix’d that.

#140 Mark on 04.25.17 at 2:23 pm

“In other words, these are uninsured mortgages, which would make them subprime? (ie, people who cannot qualify for CDIC). “

Nope. They may very well be extremely high quality mortgages. For example, a 20% LTV loan written to a dentist in suburbia has no risk of default. This sort of loan wouldn’t have CMHC subprime insurance on it, but until the introduction of uninsured MBS, such asset would have been held on the books of the banks.

These are the sorts of loans that can safely go into uninsured MBS and be sold to pension funds at better yields than the pension funds would get on debt of equivalent risk. With the balance sheet resources freed up at the banks by getting those mortgages off-books, the banks are free to pay higher dividends and/or pursue other lines of business.

In other words, it amounts to a bunch of nothing, IMHO. In fact, as an outside observer, its rather shocking that there was no MBS product in Canada other than the CMHC insured stuff until recently.

#141 traderJim on 04.25.17 at 2:27 pm

#122 Mark

The US dollar rocketed higher in the crash as it is was a safe haven in a scenario where it looked possible the entire global financial system would collapse.

It also led to my best trade ever, since I realized the loonie had collapsed for no good reason, as Canada and our banks were in much better shape than almost anywhere else. It was pure panic and no logic.

It was a once-in-a-lifetime no-brainer trade, and I rode the loonie all the way up to par.

My only regret was not being able to convince my bank to give me some credit to short more USD/CAD, as credit markets had frozen for small fry like me. Sigh. I could have had a yacht if they had let me buy as many loonies as I wanted.

#142 NoName on 04.25.17 at 2:51 pm

#138 Capt. Serious on 04.25.17 at 1:34 pm

No one should read amp version of anything.

—-
#113 Lee on 04.25.17 at 9:51 am

He also gave 3 very compelling case why he should lead cons in Ontario, I jo. Tor. Maybe we would not have k wind. Just saying

—–

#143 TurnerNation on 04.25.17 at 3:02 pm

I bet lumber solution will be Trudoh giving more of our tax dollars to prop the Lumber Barrons.
We got tag teamed by the elites (T & T).
See how the game is played?

#144 jess on 04.25.17 at 3:07 pm

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/24/fraudsters-filing-fake-email-transfers-to-fool-brokerages.html

#145 loonielimber on 04.25.17 at 3:29 pm

Garth

Interested to hear your thought on the plunging loonie and lumber. Looks like Canadians will all be retiring to Elliot Lake rather than some exotic global hot spot.

Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr…..down she goes!

#146 Johnny Boy on 04.25.17 at 3:33 pm

#134 Fed-up on 04.25.17 at 12:41 pm

127 Johnny Boy on 04.25.17 at 11:12 am
My wife said the other day should we list too? I said sure and go where? She is close to her sister and brother here in the city. Her sister lives in the Annex and her brother lives in Leslieville. We are in Riverdale. So I dump my home and rent? The homes in my area that are available are going for $4K per month. I need a place for my two motorcycles and a massive junkyard dog. In order to keep some property I need to get way, way out of town completely, move my business and loose my friends. Forget it I’m staying put. The house is paid for what do i care.
———————————————————————-

Wow only 50K per year in rent? With a balanced portfolio composed of…oh never mind.
………………………………………………………………….
Yes I know it makes economic sense but I despise the idea of settling into a rental and then getting the boot when the owners decide its time to sail into the sunset in Cancun. Have seen this happen to two good friends who had to move twice in three years, so disruptive one the friends wives had a breakdown. She had the home fixed up the way she liked it then poof your out. Your not in control of shit when you rent, that is the problem. Your rights end when the owners decide they no longer want to be landlords and the new owners want to live in the home.

#147 Gregg in Victoria on 04.25.17 at 3:39 pm

So, Ryan says: “we could consider reducing US and adding to Europe in the next round of changes…”

And Garth seems to be saying the opposite: “…..Stocks which look sort of pricey now on a P/E ratio would end up looking cheap as profits plump.

So in advance of what I assume will be a Macron win, do we add or subtract from our US holdings – or just do what I do: keep our 60% equities in equal parts Maple, Eagle and International and ignore the noise?

Ryan’s ‘changes’ are never taken as a kneejerk reaction to unfolding current events, but are forward-looking and measured. Do nothing. — Garth

#148 mike from mtl on 04.25.17 at 3:58 pm

#149 Gregg in Victoria on 04.25.17 at 3:39 pm
keep our 60% equities in equal parts Maple, Eagle and International and ignore the noise?
////////////////////////////////////////////////////

In my opinion cut down on the maple, NEVER hedge on poloz peso.. always unhedged!

Personally I have 17%,21,9,9,4 in Ca,Us,Eu,As,EE respectively.

#149 Livin Large on 04.25.17 at 4:49 pm

OK Xavier, name three ways in which Cuba was better for Cubans under Batista than under Castro?

Be specific and the examples need to be broad objective socio/economic ones and not just some anecdotal opinions.

Like it or not, big S socialism works very very nicely (and always has) to improve the lives of people in previously underdeveloped or economically depresses pipulations.

In a robust, well educated industrial economy? Maybe Socialism stiffles some growth but almost universally it contracts the disparity within the incomes of the citizens.

#150 Fed-up on 04.25.17 at 5:11 pm

#148 Johnny Boy on 04.25.17 at 3:33 pm
#134 Fed-up on 04.25.17 at 12:41 pm

127 Johnny Boy on 04.25.17 at 11:12 am
My wife said the other day should we list too? I said sure and go where? She is close to her sister and brother here in the city. Her sister lives in the Annex and her brother lives in Leslieville. We are in Riverdale. So I dump my home and rent? The homes in my area that are available are going for $4K per month. I need a place for my two motorcycles and a massive junkyard dog. In order to keep some property I need to get way, way out of town completely, move my business and loose my friends. Forget it I’m staying put. The house is paid for what do i care.
———————————————————————-

Wow only 50K per year in rent? With a balanced portfolio composed of…oh never mind.
………………………………………………………………….
Yes I know it makes economic sense but I despise the idea of settling into a rental and then getting the boot when the owners decide its time to sail into the sunset in Cancun. Have seen this happen to two good friends who had to move twice in three years, so disruptive one the friends wives had a breakdown. She had the home fixed up the way she liked it then poof your out. Your not in control of shit when you rent, that is the problem. Your rights end when the owners decide they no longer want to be landlords and the new owners want to live in the home.

———————————————————–

I completely agree…stay where you are.

#151 Boy-zee on 04.26.17 at 1:59 pm

Largest Mortgage lender in the USA….Lehman Brothers

Largest Mortgage lender in Canada….Home Capital Group

#152 Keith on 04.26.17 at 2:20 pm

HCG boom. My amateur investor self just made a 250% return on puts in a week.

Thanks for flying the flag for so long Garth.

#153 Dunc on 04.26.17 at 3:38 pm

#16 Smartalox – you’re my hero!

I’ve been trying to convince my missus the same thing but she won’t bite. We’re probably about to go and spend our two windfall profits on an overpriced townhouse (60km away from where I work) and have to work until I’m 90 because she doesn’t want to rent.

The ironic thing is that she loves sending me screenshots of the rapid growth of her RRSP and how great it is that the money grows for free.

Give me strength!