Victims

Apparently every eighth property sale in the GTA last year (and there were 113,200 of them) went to a person who already has real estate. This ratio exploded in the last decade according to government stats. More than 120,000 locals now own multiple places.

So what?

So if foreign buyers (according to local realtors) equal 4.9% of all deals, if 50% of all condos (according to Urbanation) are bought by people with no intention of moving in and if 14% of total buyers (according to the province) already own homes, then the changes announced last Thursday are doomed. The centrepiece of Ontario’s big douse-the-fire program was a 15% tax on foreign buyers (who don’t move here), but the numbers show the real culprit for runaway pricing is clearly old stock speckers.

By bringing in an anti-foreigner tax, spanking realtors, extending rent controls and opening the door to an empty-houses levy, the province missed stomping out the hot coals responsible for this conflagration. Forget Chinese dudes, assignment clauses or rich people with a downtown condo for game nights – prices have romped because GTA properties (ditto in Vancouver) are now an asset class, and part of the futures market.

The mania to acquire real estate is unlikely to be abated by anything last week delivered. Nothing Ontario did will immediately reduce sales or prices. A detached house will be just as unaffordable to the average moister couple in July as it was in March. That won’t change until government has the backbone to create a serious speculation tax of the kind last seen in the 1970s.

On April 9th, 1974, out of the clear blue came a bolt of lightning that sautéed the rear end of every speculator and multiple-property owner in Ontario. The province imposed a 50% tax on any and all profits an investor might realize from the sale of any piece of real estate. The only exceptions – your farm or your principal residence. And this was on top of the federal capital gains tax.

It was an astonishing thing for a conservative government to do, but it worked. Sales collapsed overnight. Within days, prices followed. The 30% year/year price gain which triggered this draconian action (currently the bloat is at 33%) was arrested, then interest rates started to rise and the party was truly over. Real estate remained relatively affordable until the next bubble formed in the mid-1980s (burst by mortgage rate hikes in the early 1990s).

The hate mail this pathetic blog has garnered over the past three years of suggesting locals, not dudes from Guangdong, were responsible for peak house, is impressive. I’ve been told what to do with literally every orifice on my bronzed, taut body. Most Canadians have bought into the meme that shadowy foreigners and traitor realtors have conspired to steal houses so they can launder their stolen fortunes. They want to believe it. They hate people who reject it. Life’s so much more understandable when you’re a victim.

Well, victims they are. Of their own frenzied obsession with dirt.

Renters are discriminated against. Household debt levels are reckless. Our media’s obsessed (“Buy now or risk saying bye-bye to affordable Montreal home ownership,” said the Gazette on the weekend). Our kids have turned into condo junkies. Financial balance has been sacrificed on the altar of potlights and polished cement. Worse, this bubble we’ve created for ourselves has turned many of us into xenophobes, racists and generally despicable, envious, venomous people. So we get the government actions we deserve – a tax on foreigners and collars on agents. Tomorrow houses will cost a little more. Risk on.

Frenzied buyers line up outside the sales office of Brad Lamb’s latest condo development on the weekend in downtown Toronto.

152 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 04.23.17 at 7:27 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Burnaby.

Hey Sobby ,you might want to check this one out.

Probably priced low to get some juices flowing or their realtor might have banged their head whilst exiting their Audi and accidentally told them that they won’t be getting 2m for their 45 year old house.

They paid 1.56 in early 2016 and the generous assessment that came later in the year covers that number, but if you look at average sale price in Burnaby it is down 11% and detached unit prices in that part of the city are down 26% might explain part of the problem.

If it goes for anywhere near the number they will lose roughly 70k plus expenses.

They’re not Crestfallen on their front lawn yet though…

M42BC

1346 Crestlawn Drive, Burnaby

Feb 2:$1,980,000
Apr 23: $1,488,000
Change: – 492000.00 -25%

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/1346-crestlawn-drive

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzV1VTWQ==

#2 NoName on 04.23.17 at 7:27 pm

Remember that article about that rental bike in china that i posted few days back. here it is straight from the this guy mouth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdsb2wwn-7g

#3 Paul on 04.23.17 at 7:37 pm

It used to be so easy sellers wanted the best price buyers wanted the lowest price. Sellers asked a little high buyers offers a little low. Then they met in the middle or so. Now the greed is unbelievable.

#4 Trumpocalypse2017 on 04.23.17 at 7:38 pm

TRUMPOCALYPSE COMING TO FRANCE!!

Europe will begin a descent into social chaos May 7.

Then Putin will move on Ukraine and the Baltics.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/04/21/results-french-presidential-elections-will-shape-ukraine-future-europe-costa/#arvlbdata

Global war coming, in Europe and Asia.

Prepare.

Now.

#5 Pete from St. Cesaire on 04.23.17 at 7:38 pm

Montreal Gazette is now pushing people with a story about ‘buy now or buy never’. I guess they don’t want Quebec to be spared the pain certain to come to T.O. and Van.

Side note: The BOC is planning a commemorative $10 bill and saying that further to these a whole new line of $10 bills are in the works but I haven’t seen anything about new $20’s, etc. Going the way of India are we? All you guys hoarding up $50’s, $100’s and Pinkys might want to start lowering the denominations you are stockpiling.

#6 Dean Grenholm on 04.23.17 at 7:40 pm

Garth, are they implementing the House Tax because Poloz won’t raise rates? If Poloz rose rates houses would correct but it would really hurt the economy…so it seems this is a bit of a work around.

#7 amazon girl on 04.23.17 at 7:40 pm

Hi Garth, why don’t they increase property taxes by let
say 30 percent. This would increase the supply and force
some of the homeowners to put there homes on the market.Lots of properties are paying a low rate while
there homes are going up.A example of this is some houses in the beaches. House worth north of a million but
paying roughly 4000 per year.

#8 Game Over on 04.23.17 at 7:42 pm

Anecdotally, I can confirm this while I was at an event in Vaughan on the weekend. Many people I talked to admitted that they and their family had multiple properties and were renting them out. I think it clicked for me that is whats going on. Ironically, they all said it was a pain in the ass, but hey values are skyrocketing so why not hold on. When there is actually a concerted effort to cool the market, look out!

#9 Dr. Bob on 04.23.17 at 7:42 pm

Garth, with everyone spending all their money on real-estate, what is left over for the auto industry. How are people going to afford a new vehicle or even the fuel to drive to work? Its all over but the crying….this won’t end well.

#10 [email protected] on 04.23.17 at 7:44 pm

old stock, Garth the photo – mostly chinese dudes?

Chinese people are in China. These people are in Toronto. See what I mean about real estate making you racist? — Garth

#11 IKnow on 04.23.17 at 7:45 pm


because GTA properties (ditto in Vancouver) are now an asset class, and part of the futures market

—————–

Hong Kong people (and indeed most people in the old worlds) have been treating real estates and land ownership as such.
Chinese might have greater bravado to speculate more severely.
According to the Hong Kong and Singapore metrics, Toronto and Vancouver are still bargains, undervalued by maybe a couple hundred percent points.

#12 Economystical on 04.23.17 at 7:45 pm

Garth, I have explained it again and again.

Create a false crisis, propose government action as a solution to the crisis, and raise taxes, for your own good. It’s as simple as that. We need to take all your money from you because otherwise you would spend it in ways that are not socially just.

The “Carbon Tax”, or as I like to call it the GSCT or HSCT depending on what province you are in is a classic example. We actually managed to convince a majority of the people that royalties, corporate and income taxes for those involved in the energy industry, the GST and road taxes weren’t enough and yet one more tax on the life-blood of the economy was necessary, “for your own good”. (Ha it’s so brilliant I have to have a sarcastic laugh!)

You will lose all these arguments, Garth. You are trying to use reason. We have dispensed with that. Reason, mathematics, science, and old style economics are the enemies of humanity and preventive of the bold new future. This is why we don’t teach these subjects in school anymore. They are simply chains that bind and blind people to the limitless possibilities of economystics.

Venezuela is the model for us all. They don’t even need to produce or buy video games anymore because survival situations are now provided for free by the socialist utopia. Think of all the savings in building these things, powering them, then they all go to the waste dump eventually harming the environment, etc. We have solved the problem by Economystics, turning the whole country into a gaming experience!

#13 common sense on 04.23.17 at 7:52 pm

Funny how money changes people….who knew?

#14 conan on 04.23.17 at 7:53 pm

“extending rent controls” Garth

Someone has a bee in their bonnet about rent controls. Feel free to write an article about this down trodden group. Perhaps they need a pity session of some kind?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcMqZtWfK8M

Way to go Sens!

#15 cecilhenry on 04.23.17 at 7:54 pm

DELETED

#16 The Great Gazoo on 04.23.17 at 7:54 pm

Tomorrow houses will cost a little more. Risk on.
—————————————————–

Below are some excerpts from a G&M article on the weekend on this topic. Barry Cohen agrees with you Garth, but for different reasons.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/

Why Ontario’s measures may not be enough to dampen the Greater Toronto Area’s scorching-hot real estate market

Toronto realtor Barry Cohen had four purchase offers on the go on Thursday, when the Ontario government announced it would impose a 15-per-cent tax on foreign buyers, effective the next day.

For a realtor who specializes in selling luxury homes to foreign buyers in tony Toronto neighbourhoods – with Chinese purchasers accounting for “a good majority” of his deals – the tax could have been a blow.

But as of Thursday afternoon, three of the four purchasers were keen to proceed, and he expected the fourth would come back to the table on Friday. The Re/Max realtor says he is not worried a new tax will drive away customers.

“If you look specifically at the Chinese … the feeling is that, ‘I’ve got to get out of Dodge,’ which in this case is China,” he said. “And Canada is a safe place to be. The feeling is that if it costs me 15 per cent more, so be it. It’s better than losing the bulk of the investment in China.”

…….

Mr. Cohen, who deals with many Chinese buyers, estimated about 20 per cent of foreign purchasers he sees would not qualify for any of the exemptions and would have to pay the tax.

Most of them would likely proceed and pay it, or would shift their focus back to Vancouver if they have to pay the tax in either market, he said.

“People come to Canada, and specifically to Toronto, because it’s a safe financial haven, a safe place to live and, by the way, real estate goes up every year,” he said.

#17 Lee on 04.23.17 at 7:55 pm

Done in Vancouver and Toronto (priced out greater fool) My prediction small lake cottages and East approximately 150 k. P.E.C.

#18 Millenial on 04.23.17 at 8:00 pm

Hey Garth,

Just saw a new listing pop up, it’s literally a 1 minute walk from my parent’s house, where I grew up:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18043759/222-FOREST-HILL-Road-Toronto-Ontario-M5P2N5-Forest-Hill-South

$4,888,000. Interesting number, huh? Lots of eights. Maybe you should call the salesperson Colin Kenner, or the broker, Cynthia Lynn Goodchild from Royal LePage. Tell them they have no idea what they’re doing, and who they’re marketing to, and they should start selling used cars or something.

God bless.

Ugly comments tonight. — Garth

#19 akashic records on 04.23.17 at 8:01 pm

On April 9th, 1974, out of the clear blue came a bolt of lightning that sautéed the rear end of every speculator and multiple-property owner in Ontario. The province imposed a 50% tax on any and all profits an investor might realize from the sale of any piece of real estate. The only exceptions – your farm or your principal residence. And this was on top of the federal capital gains tax.

It was an astonishing thing for a conservative government to do, but it worked.

Overriding free market Capitalism supply/demand/price by imposing punitive tax on profit on investment on specific asset class because it “works”.

How is that different from Communist governments “economy planning”?

It is the same government economic dictatorship.

#20 Chaddywack on 04.23.17 at 8:01 pm

@#1 flop

I love the “great for first time buyers” that the realtor noted in the discription.

Yeah at $1.48 Million. Sounds like a great starter home :)

#21 smallcapsteve on 04.23.17 at 8:05 pm

Hi Garth,

I have a couple of questions that relate to this exact post.

1) If someone is buying an income property, specifically a place that is not their primary residence, should the interest rate be the same as if it was a primary residence?

2) Can you take out money from an operating line of credit, transfer it over to your bank, and then use it as a down payment for your mortgage?

I am curious if this legal, because I seem to know various people who do this.

#22 Old Salt on 04.23.17 at 8:07 pm

Wandered through open houses in Ottawa suburbs today… Worn out builder grade finishings that are past their best before date, yet people want top dollar despite their property being listed for months…

Folks, seriously, if you can’t afford to at least maintain it to the condition it was when you bought it maybe, just maybe, you bought too much house.

Hate to ask what else these people are sacrificing

#23 T-Rev on 04.23.17 at 8:09 pm

Interesting thought Gartho…didn’t know a 50% spec tax was ever a thing anywhere in Canada. I actually think it’s a great great idea…But in addition to foreign buyers tax, and closer scrutiny of the RE industry, not in place of. I’m not a fan of empty house taxes- the govt has no business telling you what you can or can’t do with a place…many people buy retirement homes or college condos for their kids long in advance of needing them, and I don’t believe we should be taxing them if they don’t want them soiled by the unwashed.

Anyway back to my point- by putting a “super tax” on capital gains from RE, govt is effectively saying “houses are not an asset to be traded, speculated, and made scarce for the purpose of driving up prices and making a profit”. I don’t see a problem with this. Imagine if people started going into grocery stores and buying up all the food and “scalping” it- we wouldn’t allow this, and would quickly introduce legislation to stop the practice. Similar idea here.

And, I own an investment property. But I do it because the current rules of engagement allow this, and its cash flow positive. I’m in full support of making houses houses, if that’s what it takes to restore affordability to the market; just means that me and people like me will have to drive capital to other places, which isn’t a bad thing. And, if a project still makes sense from a rental income perspective, purpose built rentals will continue to be built.

As for rent control, it reeks of communism….

#24 Lee on 04.23.17 at 8:09 pm

A spec tax is really the only way to quell the tide long term other than big increases in rates. Neither will ever happen in our lifetimes. Or at least you’d be crazy betting otherwise. Waiting for the government to save you is stupid. Wynne is just trying to keep hopeful buyers hopeful till the next election. People are so gullible I shoulda been a politician.

#25 dakkie on 04.23.17 at 8:10 pm

Banks Prepare For MASSIVE Housing Bubble Burst In Canada! – You Won’t Believe What BMO Just Did

http://investmentwatchblog.com/banks-prepare-for-massive-housing-bubble-burst-in-canada-you-wont-believe-what-bmo-just-did/

#26 I know I know on 04.23.17 at 8:13 pm

Oh come on. Are you simple or what? Foreign buyer equalling 5% of the market can have a massive influence on prices. Especially if price is no object to them. Has nothing to do with hate. Or political correctness.

The point you missed is that speculation by the same people who complain about foreigners is far more destructive to real estate affordability. — Garth

#27 Jacques Strappe on 04.23.17 at 8:14 pm

Glad you pointed out that appalling Montreal Gazette article. I couldn’t tell if it was advertorial or just folksy gerbilism from the Gazoo. I only came across the article because our Lexus driving Realtor neighbour posted it on her Facebook wall with a ‘Pay now or Pay more later’ quip. Really? Realtors are allowed to say that?

But to the point of the article, is Montreal’s Real Estate market going to mimic Toronto and Vancouver? Anecdotally, I am seeing lower westmount’s small, century old, 2000 square foot townhouses going for over $1M, in some cases with multiple offers, which is unheard of around here. So yes, there is some weirdness in this market, and the high end sales ($3M plus) appear to be going in some measure to dudes and dudettes with Chinese names (I’m not saying they are foreign, but perhaps their capital is).

But with a shitty jobs market, the highest tax rate in North America, and a pathologically alienated society to boot, I have a hard time believing that Montreal will mirror the insanity of TO and YVR. It’s just different here.

#28 Rentin on 04.23.17 at 8:16 pm

Went for a walk today in NE Coquitlam with the family. 100% of the people we saw gardening in the front yard were Canadians; albeit they looked like they were from Asia, spoke no english and nodded and waved as we said good afternoon.

No Ham??? You have to be kidding me.

HAM means ‘Hot Asian Money.’ From Asia. It does not mean your neighbours. Just imagine what they call you. — Garth

#29 TLG on 04.23.17 at 8:17 pm

Government created the bubble. Government wants the bubble. Government NEEDS the bubble. Government will not pop the bubble. The economy will collapse without the bubble. Don’t you get it ?

#30 HAM R Us on 04.23.17 at 8:18 pm

In my social circle, people who own multiple houses are all government employees, one for provincial ministry, another one is a teacher.

#31 Credit Exhaustion on 04.23.17 at 8:18 pm

I think the ground is shifting. Went to a few open houses this weekend and there were not many people there (Milton Area). The people that were there, were not buying the bull crap that the realtor was spouting about how hot things were. People were actually arguing saying this house has already been listed three times and didn’t sell, what’s different now? I have noticed a shift from a few weeks ago. People outside one of the open houses agreeing that the place was not worth what the seller was asking etc. The crash has already begun. Only the greater ones are left and they are running out.

#32 I know I know on 04.23.17 at 8:21 pm

Just because you are blind to the impact of foreign buyers doesn’t make you more righteous than anyone else. It’s obvious that there are many foreign buyers. Some buy through their citizen friends. I know of two such cases. Open your eyes and see. With your eyes.

#33 Explosions on 04.23.17 at 8:23 pm

A few places I have been following have had deals fall through recently because buyers got “cold feet.” I think people are getting nervous. Also overheard a guy lamenting about how much a mistake it was that he recently bought, as the cost of owning was draining his bank account. I see regret for a lot of folks in the near future.

#34 conan on 04.23.17 at 8:29 pm

RE: #92 A Reply to #76 conan on 04.23.17 at 2:38 pm

Just guessing here, but I think Trump has delegated the big stuff to his military commanders. He might have said give me some ” Horatio Hornblower chit,” and they all know what he means. They read those books in military college.

He wants ISIS crushed, N Korea solved, and Libya dealt with. Oh, and many other areas need dire attention. I do not envy Trump.

#35 economictsunami on 04.23.17 at 8:37 pm

If the whole exercise of opening the spigots, is to aid in deflating the credit bubble, when does the next shoe drop for Canada?

China’s credit excess is unlike anything the world has ever seen

“A credit-to-GDP gap above 10 per cent of GDP is considered risky and requires the maximum additional 2.5 per cent of tier one capital as a countercyclical buffer under Basel III.
A credit-to-GDP gap above 10 per cent of GDP is increasingly problematic as any new credit extended above that level produces progressively less GDP and is a source of future NPLs.
Out of the 43 countries currently measured by the BIS, China has the largest credit-to-GDP gap (by orders of magnitude) at 30 per cent of GDP. This is equivalent to US$3.1 trillion in excess credit.”

http://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2089577/can-worlds-largest-credit-excess-be-unwound-luckily-beijing

Debt Is Asia’s Weak Tail. Watch It Grow:

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-04-20/debt-is-asia-s-weak-tail-watch-it-grow
But it’s not just China…

#36 amazon girl on 04.23.17 at 8:38 pm

Garth , why don’t they increase the property tax,
let say by 30%. This will increase the supply in the
market. A example would be in the beaches area ,
where houses are north of a million but pay less than
4000 a year in taxes.
Thank you

#37 Ummmmm on 04.23.17 at 8:47 pm

The Wynne government failed miserably Again!

16 full of bull poopoo policies were introduced!

Foreign investors should have been taxed at a minimum of 35%. That would cool 8 to 10% of sales.

A real speculators tax on dividends from homes gains on 100% of dividends should have been policy #2.

That would have been effective instead 16 policies that beat around the Bush!

Wynne quit already!!!!

#38 For those about to flop... on 04.23.17 at 8:50 pm

Chaddywack on 04.23.17 at 8:01 pm
@#1 flop

I love the “great for first time buyers” that the realtor noted in the discription.

Yeah at $1.48 Million. Sounds like a great starter home :)

///////////////////////////////

Hey Chaddywack, you might want to check out this one as well.It came across my Pink desk today.

It’s on the market for 1.49m and they are on the hook for 1.29m.

I wonder if you pay full price will they let you keep the blue tarp on the roof…

M42BC

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzVVQyMg==

#39 PM on 04.23.17 at 9:02 pm

I find it very difficult to understand that how anyone can be cashflow positive owing a Condo in Toronto. There are many ancillary fees associated with purchase and carrying of a condo.

Also, given the recent stat, 50% of the condo were sold to investors, then we cannot rule out out that investors purchased to flip and not rent.

Also, lets assume if investors were able to be cash flow positive then what would be their return? likely much less than a equity portfolio once taxes are applied. ROI of course is a different story.

Therefore, people are purchasing with the mindset that next year they can flip and walk away with a nice profit. This is essentially speculation, but the question that remains to be answered is, who are the speculators? local, foreign or both.

Either way, Government did not do their job last Thursday. Why touch the equity of voters 12 months before election.

What is surprising is, neither the NDP or PC have a comprehensive housing affordability plan, or worse, have made housing an election issue.

#40 MigroGX on 04.23.17 at 9:11 pm

Seriously, I thought we were taking a brief pause from blogging about the big smoke…….. Clearly they don’t appreciate you, now talk to me about that balanced diversified portfolio some more!!!

#41 Contrarian Coyote on 04.23.17 at 9:15 pm

#18 Millenial on 04.23.17 at 8:00 pm
Hey Garth,

Just saw a new listing pop up, it’s literally a 1 minute walk from my parent’s house, where I grew up:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18043759/222-FOREST-HILL-Road-Toronto-Ontario-M5P2N5-Forest-Hill-South

$4,888,000. Interesting number, huh? Lots of eights. Maybe you should call the salesperson Colin Kenner, or the broker, Cynthia Lynn Goodchild from Royal LePage. Tell them they have no idea what they’re doing, and who they’re marketing to, and they should start selling used cars or something.

God bless.

Ugly comments tonight. — Garth

===

Numbers failz. If they were going for ‘lucky’ they should have just rounded up to $5mil, that 4 sounds like ‘death’ in Chinese and even Korean.

#42 Rentin on 04.23.17 at 9:16 pm

I guess I should have been more explicit in my original post, didn’t mean for it to be slightly offfensive.

Firstly, if a person waves friendly when I say hello, and they clearly don’t speak english, I think they are great. I have travelled extensively and it’s always easier to be introverted if you don’t speak the language.

Secondly, the houses I speak of are 1.8 to 3.0M houses that are all new; new lot, new street. They never existed before, but for whatever reason they are being purchased almost exclusively with *AM.

Thirdly, my definition of “HOT” is not stolen or laundered. To me it means that it’s HOT to find a place to invest. Quite honestly, *A* has more millionaires than USA and Canada combined. So of course they would show up here more plentiful than any other immigrant.

Fourthly, my parents are immigrants, and half of the people I know are only first generation Canadian. But if you grew up here, you can speak english without an accent; it’s just fact.

Fifthly, I may be one of the few people that identify the presence of HAM, but are not offended by it. I think the best thing about Canada is that it is generally made up of very tolerant people, who if you go back only 200 years, are ALL immigrants, minus the first nations of course.

Anyways, unless you do a full financial audit, it is impossible to say whether someone owns outright or is leverage to the nines.

What I do know is that in the hood where I grew up in, and my parents place is worth 5M, the only people buying chopped up pieces of land with new 5,000ft2 houses on it, DINAN and AMG’s in the driveway are almost all asian.

We are not poor, or pissed that we can’t afford nice housing, it just doesn’t make financial sense to do so anymore.

What drives me nuts are people who categorically deny *AM, because the government forgot to track it….

As far as what my neighbours would call me; nice guy who waved and said good afternoon walking with the kids.

People are way too sensitive about the issue. Can’t afford a house where you grew up, big deal. HAM coming to Canada and pricing you out, deal with it.

** Disclaimer ** I don’t like most politicians and most realtors. They are mostly self serving and knowingly mislead people to benefit themselves.

#43 Smoking Man on 04.23.17 at 9:17 pm

Risk On

Govt always screws it up.

The best way to get inventory on the market is to let the market figure it out. If the average price shot north of 2 million almost every boomer near or past retirement age would sell at the same time.

#44 45north on 04.23.17 at 9:18 pm

amazon girl: why don’t they increase the property tax, let say by 30%?

property tax is the domain of the municipality so they are the municipal councillors. They ( the municipal councillors ) are responsible for things like supplying water to your house and getting the buses to run. They have no responsibility nor authority for house prices, affordability or level of debt. It simply is not their problem. Moreover a 30% increase would not be possible within the existing municipal framework. The councillors would all just quit rather than face the outrage that a 30% increase would arouse.

#45 not 1st on 04.23.17 at 9:30 pm

Maybe Garth doesnt realize this but foreign cash can be carried by canadian citizens of asian decent. Same effect as if a foreigner bough it themselves. Nobody checks the titles afterwards. Probably anon numbered companies all over these purchases.

Give it up. — Garth

#46 GFD on 04.23.17 at 9:40 pm

#18 Millenial on 04.23.17 at 8:00 pm
Hey dude, have you realized that there is Chinese Canadian community in Canada? They are local Canadians just like you are. And they too must like 888. Are you blind or are you just plain dumb?

#47 45north on 04.23.17 at 9:41 pm

here are the fundamental problems:

Record household debt. Record house prices. Record spending. Record tax.

Wynne and Sousa may truly believe that their measures address the problems. I don’t. However the problems are being addressed: household debt will be reduced and house prices will come down.

#48 akashic records on 04.23.17 at 9:42 pm

#40 MigroGX on 04.23.17 at 9:11 pm

Seriously, I thought we were taking a brief pause from blogging about the big smoke…….. Clearly they don’t appreciate you, now talk to me about that balanced diversified portfolio some more!!!

You can learn all the fine details about diversified portfolio when your first statement arrives in the Raymond James envelope.

#49 boonerator on 04.23.17 at 9:43 pm

useful term for to describe those keen to get into revenue condos.
“indoculus”
My wife’s Latin class debated on whether it meant “untaught” or “unteachable”.

Got relatives looking to buy a condo to rent out. I can blather on about transaction cost and capital risk and future punitive taxes and that RBC has increased its dividend for about 150 years but the blank stare and change of subject is polite.
Indoculus.

#50 Vit on 04.23.17 at 9:49 pm

DELETED

#51 Fish on 04.23.17 at 9:49 pm

Let them tax all waterfront property, goodness, there is alot of shoreline in Canada.

#52 Lulu on 04.23.17 at 9:49 pm

Garth, if the T2 regime did what the Con did back in the 70’s I think CN Tower will be lining up for a lots of ppl going up to the top floor and have a stunt show…lol

The Lib government also got loads of debt as well, they won’t take the risk and of course no backbone for sure. They will drag on till the next election and probably probe it to the highest point and let the next one handle it. FOMO may still have a couple of years to go. Sigh!!

#53 jay on 04.23.17 at 9:54 pm

You’re exactly right Garth,if housing is being treated as a commodity then it should be taxed in the same way as a commodity.Do we have the leadership for that nowadays, we’re waiting.

#54 yorkville renter on 04.23.17 at 9:55 pm

i dont understand why rent control “reeks of communism”… people are free to rent at whatever starting price they want… if one can raise rent to any amount then any landlord can essentially blackmail a tenant or remove them at will. That seems reasonable.

#55 Pete from St. Cesaire on 04.23.17 at 9:58 pm

But with a shitty jobs market, the highest tax rate in North America, and a pathologically alienated society to boot, I have a hard time believing that Montreal will mirror the insanity of TO and YVR. It’s just different here.
—————————————————
Gee! If you feel that way about the place….
Anyway, I don’t think that the Rest of Canada want’s to see Montreal weathering the storm well while they drown in a society full of underwater mortgages. I’m sure some secret council in Ottawa has concerns about a huge power/influence/wealth shift back to Quebec which may result from the collapse in T.O. & Van. and which would be beneficial to the separatist cause. But, it would appear to be a bit late in the game to be trying to change things in Montreal now….or is it? This might be a good indicator that the powers-that-be know that there are still a few years to go before the collapse in T.O. or BC.

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.23.17 at 10:01 pm

The problem is people that insist that “housing” is a right are really saying “owning” should be a right….

Careful what you wish for…..

When this tottering Canadian market implodes….its gonna be ugly…. with a capital UGH.

I’m glad I’m renting.

#57 Arto on 04.23.17 at 10:07 pm

Even if foreign buyers are 5%, the marginal buyer (HAM) not only determines price levels, but also their stability and degree of volatility. The behaviour of the marginal buyer, as well as the degree of competition for his/her “top dog” spot, sets the prices of nearly every asset class held by today’s investors.

Not really. The speculators, amateur investors and flippers do. And there are legions more of them. — Garth

#58 Smoking Man on 04.23.17 at 10:08 pm

Congrats leafs you really took it to the team that will win the cup this year.

Your young, got an old school coach. I see a leaf Stanley Cup in the next few years. Never thought I would ever say that.

#59 HeartLost on 04.23.17 at 10:12 pm

http://www.stockhouse.com/news/market-updates/2017/04/21/[email protected]-Canada

Stockhouse @ the Bell: More fraudulent inflation data from Statistics Canada

Stockhouse Editorial

Follow the bouncing ball. Ultra-low interest rates – frozen there permanently by reckless central banks – are destroying Western economies. Housing bubbles, stock market bubbles, and other asset bubbles are direct and inevitable consequences of having interest rates too-low for too long. Meanwhile, everyone on fixed incomes (meaning all senior citizens, people on disabilities, etc.) are getting financially crucified.
Why are interest rates never raised? The main reason, we’re told, is because “inflation is too low.”
Inflation can never be too low – only too high.
Inflation is not “too low.”
Supposedly, Canada’s “inflation rate” is currently at a rate of 1.6%. This is absurd. Today, the Financial Post reported home prices increasing in the GTA at an annual rate of 67%. Does no one in the Greater Toronto Area live in homes? If they do, their “inflation rate” is obviously some double-digit number, and nowhere near 1.6%.
Real inflation in Canada is a double-digit number for most people. Meanwhile, people on fixed incomes who supposedly have a “cost of living adjustment” are getting nothing because Statistics Canada continues to fraudulently maintain there is virtually no inflation in the Canadian economy.

Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/news/market-updates/2017/04/21/[email protected]-canada#K7LldSgxXm540Yr3.99

#60 Smoking Man on 04.23.17 at 10:17 pm

When Trump meets this year’s Stanley Cup winners , I’m wondering what CNN will say when Trump Shakes Ovechkins hand.

#61 Livin Large on 04.23.17 at 10:18 pm

Gazoo,

I’m 100% certain that Cohen has it nailed. A 15% tax will be nothing more than a cost of doing business for foreign buyers.

Chinese buyers aren’t buying in Toronto because they like the climate and pizza. They’re buying for the same reason I once had money in the Zug Cantonal Bank…because it’s safe, a stable government with the rule of law, high respect for personal freedom and generally under the radar.

15% is just the cost of doing business.

#62 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 04.23.17 at 10:19 pm

Toronto idiots worship a team that has only been incompetent, for FIFTY YEARS FOR GOD’S SAKE!!!!

No wonder the same kind of morons have been buying up “investment condos” thinking they will always go up!

Leafs fans have the lowest IQs in Canada.

They should all be realtors :)

#63 NoName on 04.23.17 at 10:19 pm

@ flop and @farts

Hi guy small favor to ask from two of you, I same lot of time in a car so I use app that reads well pages to me, and for some reason app didn’t learn test to skip long
////////////////// (Slash)
And
************(Asterisk, but when app reads it fast sounds more like gasteriks…)
How about if you guys just for sale of my sanity keep it short 4-5 slashes or 4-5 gasterisks.
PLZ

NoName

#64 Mill $ home for critters on 04.23.17 at 10:21 pm

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/4396-commercial-street

This property sold near 1.4Mill. It was a home to mice, birds and had off smell all the time. The garage is falling apart. We use to live there. They invested in renos but still make a killing since buying in 2005.

#65 Ole Doberman on 04.23.17 at 10:26 pm

Gartho does this shed light on the Calgary rental situation?

Tons of listings and more cropping up daily, it seems. Amateur landlords now sitting ducks for what could be the normalizing of interest rates over the next 3 years?

#66 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 04.23.17 at 10:28 pm

Toronto is minor league, just like its pathetic joke of a hockey franchise.

Only people who know nothing of the world think this is a place worthy to “invest” in real estate.

But rest assured, by the time this epic crash has stabilized, in about 20 years, the Leafs still won’t have done anything!!

50 YEARS OF UNBELIEVABLE INEPTITUDE AND LEAFS FANS STILL SUPPORT THIS SCAM SHAM!

Every season, they say “it’s different this time!! It’s worth paying those stupid ticket prices”

Just like your ridiculous real estate bubble!!

LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!

Third rate losers, like your pathetic city with horrible transit, crumbling infrastructure, growing ghettoes of poverty, incompetent civic leaders too cowardly to do the right things.

Toronto is a recipe for DISASTER!!!!

Just like the Leafs.

#67 Thelma on 04.23.17 at 10:29 pm

Was visitng my Millenial Son yesterday in YYC, While he helped me install a bike rack, of course we talked about finances and saving and staying debt free. All my preaching seems to have gotten through but he said an “old” (40) guy at work told him he had to save up to buy a new pair of shoes yet he “owns” a house and is lusting after a new car. Another guy just up and gave him a mint condition high-end home theatre audio system cause he got a “better” one. The Boy has been making good pocket cash flipping this stuff on Kijjii for very little time invested. How sad is it that you are 40 years old and you gotta save up for shoes? He will probably be given a package in 10 years.

#68 Millenial on 04.23.17 at 10:29 pm

#46 GFD on 04.23.17 at 9:40 pm
#18 Millenial on 04.23.17 at 8:00 pm
Hey dude, have you realized that there is Chinese Canadian community in Canada? They are local Canadians just like you are. And they too must like 888. Are you blind or are you just plain dumb?

********************************************
ok bro, i guess you know this neighbourhood better than I do. my bad, sorry man, hope i didn’t offend you and your Chinese Canadian friends who are buying $5million homes in the really nice part of forest hill. have a great night.

#69 Figmund Sreud on 04.23.17 at 10:30 pm

As the warm weather returns to the Comox Valley, BC, the upward pressure on house prices continues. It’s true, …

Although the vast majority of real estate buyers continue to be from Comox Valley, … price of the average shack taken in March 2015 as 100, … it raised to 106 in March 2016, … and it raised again to 125 in March 2017.

Now, … being April 2017, I just noticed that real estate signs are being staked in in front of new listings with SOLD stickers already glued on onto! [ … at least in my ‘hood! ] This joint:

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDBLUzhQMA==

… for example, went in just one day for a cool one mil just last week!

… to the moon, Alice!

F.S. – Comox, BC.

#70 over 2 Mill $ for students? on 04.23.17 at 10:30 pm

http://jaybanks.ca/vancouver-real-estate/4425-nanaimo-street/

BEAUTIFUL 10 BEDROOM HOME, 5 FULL BATHROOMS with 2 bedroom legal suite. Good sized bedrooms (3 up, 3 on main & 4 downstairs). 11′ ft vaulted ceiling in living room, 9′ on main floor. Beautiful hardwood flr thru-out the whole house. Current owners host international students with income of $5,000-9,000 per month plus the 2 bedroom legal suite. Triple enclosed car garage with gated open parking. This house is perfect for a big family or a family who wants a beautiful home with a business. Transit at your doorstep. 1 1/2 block to Nanaimo skytrain station, 2 blocks to schools. Minutes to downtown.

#71 Fed-up on 04.23.17 at 10:34 pm

If all factors are not taken into consideration then any evaluation or forecast cannot be taken seriously. It takes just one buyer, foreign, money launderer or local, to overpay or bully offer to push the market ever higher and set ridiculous precedence for all future transactions.

#72 Ace Goodheart on 04.23.17 at 10:36 pm

Re: “On April 9th, 1974, out of the clear blue came a bolt of lightning that sautéed the rear end of every speculator and multiple-property owner in Ontario. The province imposed a 50% tax on any and all profits an investor might realize from the sale of any piece of real estate”

This is the big screw up. But it’s worse this time. Many people that I know are doing the following: Their houses have risen in value about double in the past 5 years or so (from around 400k to 800k for example). Instead of selling, what they do is “take out” the extra 400K and buy another house. Then they do renovations on the new house (that they have no intention of living in) and “hold it” as an investment.

This is all done using borrowed money though. And it is being financed through our banking system, which is now basically supported by capital gains.

If there was any sort of 50% speculation tax, it would likely collapse Canada’s banking system. Because, as Prem Watsa has pointed out, a proper real estate correction right now would involve a roughly 50% decrease in home values. That is the capital gain that has been flowed through our banks, and into people’s investment properties.

#73 For those about to flop... on 04.23.17 at 10:42 pm

NoName on 04.23.17 at 10:19 pm
@ flop and @farts

Hi guy small favor to ask from two of you, I same lot of time in a car so I use app that reads well pages to me, and for some reason app didn’t learn test to skip long
////////////////// (Slash)
And
************(Asterisk, but when app reads it fast sounds more like gasteriks…)
How about if you guys just for sale of my sanity keep it short 4-5 slashes or 4-5 gasterisks.
PLZ

NoName

///////////////////////////////////////////////

//////////////////////////////////////////////

//////////////////////////////////////////////

////////////////////////////////////////////

Hey NoName ,you mean like this…

M42BC

#74 Shortymac on 04.23.17 at 10:55 pm

So would you predict for the single family home market over the next year in Toronto. Another 30% increase because the fed won’t raise rates or actually go after speculators?

#75 GFD on 04.23.17 at 11:02 pm

#18 Millennial on 04.23.17 at 8:00 pm
Take it easy, wish I had all answers, but frustrated. If I can take it back. Poison everywhere.

#76 The Limited Sage on 04.23.17 at 11:10 pm

The further back the veil is pulled the more sick I get.

#77 GoLeafs on 04.23.17 at 11:13 pm

Like all bubbles, the light will be turned off like a switch(No one will see it coming). Went to a few open houses this weekend and traffic was likely 1/20th of what it was a few weeks ago. I work in the financial sector that looks at live real estate transactions in particular, so i’ll update everyone on the numbers in the next few weeks but i have a feeling the party is over (Market’s are driven psychologically and when the pendulum starts swinging the other way, that’s when we’ll see a long slowdown coming).

#78 Prairieboy43 on 04.23.17 at 11:14 pm

Congrats Toronto. Good series, team is better than previous years. Smokey Washington will not win. The hockey gods favour The Orange Crush. Fortuitive bounces. Great Goaltending, Defence, and the Great ones Blessing. The force is strong in Draisaitl/Mcdavid.
Go Oilers

#79 The real Kip on 04.23.17 at 11:16 pm

Two weeks ago the media reported that my GTA property increased 33% in one year and I thought, there is no way that will stick. Something will happen to correct it and last week Kathleen brought in her new rules and locked that baby in by making sure the shortage in SFH in GTA continues. Thank you Kathleen. That’s right, you know I’m voting for you!

#80 maxx on 04.23.17 at 11:20 pm

Great photo! Bangers aand crash!

#81 Smoking Man on 04.23.17 at 11:30 pm

Why I’m selling Shlong Branch

Son came up to me with a business plan. Well first off he’s got bit of cancer. Cured. We think. Not sure I can do this because I don’t realy give a crap about other people’s problems. Got enough of my own.

I can’t get zoning for two in a 10 by 10 room for 2 body’s at 4k pet head per month.

He’s a former drug addict. Re hab. Found god and 12 toes.

I don’t think he’s totaly cured. They never are.

But at leased I stopped him from stepping off a bridge. It’s in the archives. Peter kind of wacky was there for me. Thats why I despise DM. He tosed kind of wacky under the bus.

Writers, here is some book food. Father, a proud grey haired sexist with a slight drinking problem. Who’s son, a user, wants you to invest into a rehab center. To cure people like him.

Writers, no one gives a shit about how the sun shines off the newly stained chair in the afternoon, low angle sunlight.

Dr Smoking Man
Best writer in the universe.

#82 jay on 04.23.17 at 11:39 pm

http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/21/technology/juicero-squeeze-bags-ceo-responds/index.html These guys should get into the Canadian housing market.

#83 Steven H on 04.23.17 at 11:48 pm

over 2 Mill $ for students? on 04.23.17 at 10:30 pm
http://jaybanks.ca/vancouver-real-estate/4425-nanaimo-street/

BEAUTIFUL 10 BEDROOM HOME, 5 FULL BATHROOMS with 2 bedroom legal suite. Good sized bedrooms (3 up, 3 on main & 4 downstairs). 11′ ft vaulted ceiling in living room, 9′ on main floor. Beautiful hardwood flr thru-out the whole house. Current owners host international students with income of $5,000-9,000 per month plus the 2 bedroom legal suite.
—————————————-
The owners are hosting international students. What is so strange about that? You make it sound like it is a crime to own a $2 million property while some students live in it on a seasonal basis.

These homestay programs pay $750 per month to host an international student while they go to school. With 10 bedrooms fully hosted, you can generate quite an income but it is a lot of work as you also have to provide them with meals.

This has nothing to do with students owning a $2 m house which you’re trying to fake news about.

#84 a question to host on 04.23.17 at 11:50 pm

Since currencies are being devalued why is real estate not he best investment…?
thank you

#85 Annek on 04.23.17 at 11:56 pm

This government has no backbone. They knew exactly what is driving the prices of homes up, but just paid lip service that appeared to be adressing the problem.
People are buying a second and third dwelling, flipping it to make easy money.
Even if you pay 50% tax on a profit of a few hundred grand in a year or two.. that is a significant return. Especially if you put little down.
Come to think .. I should have done it, but following your blog and the sensible logic that you present,I was convinced that the bubble would burst and this would be risky.
But, price escalation continues.
It’s only raising interest rates that will do it. And perhaps a 75% speculators tax.
But the government knows that , but fails to act.

#86 Karma on 04.24.17 at 12:21 am

#61 Livin Large on 04.23.17 at 10:18 pm
“Gazoo,

I’m 100% certain that Cohen has it nailed. A 15% tax will be nothing more than a cost of doing business for foreign buyers.

Chinese buyers aren’t buying in Toronto because they like the climate and pizza. They’re buying for the same reason I once had money in the Zug Cantonal Bank…because it’s safe, a stable government with the rule of law, high respect for personal freedom and generally under the radar.

15% is just the cost of doing business.”

Same thing said about Vancouver. Foreign buying went from $1 billion a month to $150 million the next. Now it’s about $300 million a month. That’s a big difference.

#87 Home owners and realtors on 04.24.17 at 12:22 am

#77 GoLeafs

Many home mortgage renters and realtors are looking to cash out of the housing bubble. Even Smokingman who claims to be the best liar is trying to get out ahead of the crowd since he is self proclaimed herd master. He claims more money on table for housing bubble but is cashing out? The writing is on the wall. If you havent cashed out it maybe to late. The smart ones have already sold and now the herd is going to slowly wake up and run for the exits.

#88 Salaries on 04.24.17 at 12:25 am

So is the average Canadian richer or actors/actresses more poor

http://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/los-angeles-celeb-homes-compare-toronto-1.4082052

#89 NoName on 04.24.17 at 12:33 am

#73 For those about to flop… on 04.23.17 at 10:42 pm

It is lot wose than you think.
https://youtu.be/ZnHODClLOGc

#90 Garth-1 / Maple Leafs-0 on 04.24.17 at 12:36 am

I agree with Two people tonight.

The first person is Garth. Most times I disagree with his blog but tonight he is spot on like my night in shining armor.

The other person is entry #66. I agree that Maple Leaf fans are the biggest morons on Canadian soil. Supporting a private company that can’t generate a championship team despite all the sucker money they can handle….a joke.

Sports fans make me laugh when they use the term “we”….as in “we won tonight” or “we lost tonight” lol As if they are share holders in the private company. Being a fan of the Toronto Maple Leafs (or any professional sports team) is like cheering on Coca-Cola or General Motors or TD Bank….you are just cheering for a brand name. But at least with Coca-Cola, General Motors or TD Bank, you can buy shares and participate in their victories or loses.

#91 Home owners and realtors on 04.24.17 at 12:38 am

Those who feel wynne and the others didnt go far with the changes should email their thoughts. I have and i show them articles of realtors claiming the changes will do nothing. Email them once a week until they make changes

#92 westcdn on 04.24.17 at 12:50 am

I don’t understand myself. I can go off the handle in an instant. I work to control my anger. It is a mean thing. I am bright but I think minor things trigger my anger at a subconscious level. I am not aware of them and I say what I feel. It has not served me well politically but on the other hand I am good to go. It stings me to say.

Some of my investments are paying plus 10% returns. Chorus Airlines was my big winner. I had to wait and there is no guarantee they will continue. My preferreds are doing well. I lucked out. They pay even though companies cut their dividends. I looked for companies with low debt and a high equity to debt.

I am thinking it is time to sell them and find something better or take the money out. It could kill me, why sell when I am getting 7%. Real estate still doesn’t interest me, gold does.

#93 Arto on 04.24.17 at 1:10 am

#57

Disagree. The “marginal buyer” is the buyer of the MOST expensive properties in Vancouver. You can argue about their percentage but you cannot argue that HAM is the buyer of the most expensive real estate. Therefore HAM is the marginal buyer.

#94 Pete on 04.24.17 at 1:19 am

Off topic rant. Toronto fans are the most herd like puppets in the whole world. Is there no fan as brainwashed and/or borderline mentally ill as leaf fans. Personally if you are an obsessed sports fan of any kind you are a puppet of propaganda and may even suffer from mental illness. Honestly why do people care so much about an outcome in a sporting event? Even as a kid i thought the other children where just weird for talking about sports all the time. I really feel bad when i see people all crazy and demented cheering and talking about a game. I am even more amazed how they were able to brainwash the next generation of women into worshipping sports? I get really jealous of the corporate elite at how they are able to control the thoughts of the brainwash the masses without them even knowing. “Our boys played a great game. “They are still young and improving.” I think we will have a shot for the cup in the next few years. We have a great coach and management in the organization”……lol its the same conversation since the 70’s with the leafs. Go leafs go. We’ll get them next year and in the process give our corporate masters all of our money .

#95 phily on 04.24.17 at 1:24 am

All levels of government lack the leadership of maybe 30+yrs ago, and the neither the will or the balls to drop the hammer.
A candy store owner sells your favourite candy and they keep on coming.
Governments would rather keep the candy store open for business.
So the beat goes on.
Maybe someone should rewrite these lyrics relative to TO.
So carry on making the money as the party is not stopping any time soon with these suckers.

#96 I know I know on 04.24.17 at 2:09 am

#77 GoLeafs on 04.23.17 at 11:13 pm
Like all bubbles, the light will be turned off like a switch(No one will see it coming). Went to a few open houses this weekend and traffic was likely 1/20th of what it was a few weeks ago. I work in the financial sector that looks at live real estate transactions in particular, so i’ll update everyone on the numbers in the next few weeks but i have a feeling the party is over.

———————————————-

Numerous people on this blog have said the same thing over the years and for all sorts of similar anecdotal observations. Turns out they didn’t know what they were talking about. Not at all.

#97 Mark on 04.24.17 at 2:35 am

“So would you predict for the single family home market over the next year in Toronto. Another 30% increase because the fed won’t raise rates or actually go after speculators?”

Why not make it 100%, because there’s so little steam left in the market (identical units stagnating/falling since 2013, only “up” because of drastic shifts to the sales mix) that only a very few extremely high end units will actually move.

“Tons of listings and more cropping up daily, it seems. Amateur landlords now sitting ducks for what could be the normalizing of interest rates over the next 3 years?”

Not a chance. But interest rates on retail housing mortgages may very well shoot up simply because the market senses the lack of credit-worthiness in the asset class and the falling prices. Calgary prices peaked in 2011-2012, much earlier than the rest of the country, so it logically follows that they’re a little bit further ahead when it comes to declines.

#98 Dan.t on 04.24.17 at 3:39 am

This is all by design, it has to be. A bad social experiment.

It started in YVR 12 years ago with the Real Estate board sponsoring the Province and Sun news with massive puff pieces (front page news) about how great real estate is and pictures or 20 somethings buying condos and houses…

just to get the sheeple interested and it went on non stop for 10 years and is still going on (wonder how much money both “news” papers received over that time from the real estate board?).

Then escalated to banks (with government help) giving out credit to anyone with a pulse and a bit of money from bank of mom for a down payment, to making it zero down, screw a down payment and pay it off in 40 years, banks are backed if you can’t pay anyhow by tax payer- talk about moral hazard…

To government allowing Real Estate self regulate (hehe- opened the door to shadow flipping, and tons of other violations with zero penalties) and tons of fraudulent mortgage broker activities, some of which are now coming out…

To the masses seeing huge tax free windfalls by flipping condos to each other…last one in losses but who cares when you cash out 70-80k to hundreds of thousands in tax free money.

Now where was government as this was going on? Busy dropping interest rates to zero patting themselves on the back as they goosed the economy using housing stock. Essentially turning housing into a commodity.

Now we have unaffordable housing (measured by household incomes vs. cost to buy anything livable) in virtually all major cities. Houses average cost over half a million (still over 5:1 ratio= unaffordable) only because credit is still lax, rates are dirt cheap and the party is allowed to continue as Canadians go 2 TRILLION in debt…

Plus add in foreign buyers and criminal Christy Clark (and other government servants) selling out Vancouver to China and allowing foreign money to park it in Canada real estate.

Government definition on inflation is “too much money chasing too few products”. As if they didn’t know that if you give everyone access to massive credit and essentially, massive amounts of virtually free money, plus give huge incentives to buy housing that this would not happen???

Now it is out of control and they are gonna take care of things?

Oh, great, I feel reassured (sarcasm).

Finally, I have said it here before as well. I asked the people at “better dwelling” to try and find out how many realtors own multiple properties and do an article on that…talk about massive conflict of interest but who cares- they can regulate themselves, again, it’s all good, really.

No way to know was the response. And foreign money plays a role but ask yourself, how many people do know personally or at arms length that own 1, 2,3 or more properties. All being held or flipped as speculation assets…just like a commodity. Housing always goes up! Can’t lose!

I agree with Garth! Stop the massive speculation that is going on with real estate and overnight, watch massive listing flood the market. Even Poloz would agree that increased supply would lower prices…

actually maybe not, since virtually zero % interest rates don’t play any role what so ever in how much money people have access too and how much debt they are willing to take on to buy “investment” properties (don’t worry folk, he has things under control). I guess interest rates don’t matter. Time to rewrite every economic text book in the world.

I mean gov officials must see that increasing supply by cracking down on speculators would instantly lower prices but they don’t want that… instead, window dressing measures to appeal to the fool voters who believe that they are “trying” to do something at least.

Housing is no longer a place to live. They should regulate it then like the stock market or commodity market- free and open information to everyone.

Name any other market in Canada that operates the way the real estate market operates. Try hiding the latest stock bids from your clients , tell them the market is guaranteed to go up 25% next year, advertise that in the Toronto news (paid of course) and front run all your orders Garth and let me know how long you keep on working as an advisor.

#99 Michael on 04.24.17 at 4:28 am

old stock, Garth the photo – mostly chinese dudes?

Chinese people are in China. These people are in Toronto. See what I mean about real estate making you racist? [Garth]

Acknowledging someone’s race or origin does not make a person racist. Neither does acknowledging the pervasive cultural norm from that region that real estate is perceived as a low risk, medium return investment.

Almost every Chinese friend I have in Vancouver or Toronto owns their own home and a second home (often purchased for family still in China). The concentration of family wealth in this asset class is a common strategy for people from China. Calling people racist for noticing this, just serves to ignore the impact of mass immigration from the region.

Letting the bubble burst, and learning the hard way, is probably the only way to settle this mentality down. This goes for Chinese folks… and everyone else.

#100 NoName on 04.24.17 at 5:51 am

One tractor that wont be buying, john deer, and as gov. motors they make carp anyways. ..

Deere and General Motors want to eviscerate the notion of ownership. Sure, we pay for their vehicles. But we don’t own them. Not according to their corporate lawyers, anyway.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired.com/2015/04/dmca-ownership-john-deere/amp/

#101 Miss Piggy on 04.24.17 at 6:45 am

Garth, you’ve hit the nail on the head yet again. Exactly the same thing is happening is Sydney, Australia and people are point the finger at the Chinese just as much as the Canadians are. Negative gearing isn’t helping anyone and the Aussie old timers and young timers that want to reduce their taxable income are buying up everything, out pricing anyone trying to get into the market.

Can’t agree more and as always, look forward to your comments. No doubt the Sydney market is following suit.

Xx Miss Piggy
https://theearnestaddiction.wordpress.com/

#102 I'm stupid on 04.24.17 at 7:13 am

I’ve said it many time before that it’s people that are using built up equity in their homes to finance the purchase of more homes. The 30% yoy increase was due to the lack of supply in the winter. This will defiantly not end well. Once prices stall this entire market will collapse. It’s a classic debt fuelled bubble.

#103 Victor V on 04.24.17 at 7:17 am

The lax oversight of syndicated mortgages is hurting Ontario investors with little relief in sight

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/the-lax-oversight-of-syndicated-mortgages-is-hurting-ontario-investors-with-little-relief-in-sight&pubdate=2017-04-24

#104 Bad Lip Reading on 04.24.17 at 7:32 am

I know this stuff is puerile, but I can’t stop laughing.
Check out “Inauguration Day.”

https://www.youtube.com/user/BadLipReading/videos

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.24.17 at 8:22 am

@#63 No Name

Someone actually reads my ramblings?????

“Gasterix” ……. has a nice “ring” to it.

#106 Herb on 04.24.17 at 8:24 am

#98 dan.t,

thank you!

And the answer would be to put CMHC out of the leverage business (it has long since served its purpose of taking care of World War II veterans), make banks assume their own risk (watch interest rates normalize themselves!), and actually regulate the RE industry.

And until politicians fear pitchforks more than loss of office, it won’t happen.

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.24.17 at 8:28 am

Ho hum.
Another Monday, another downpour in the Lower Brainland.
The grayest March on record ( 70.5 hours of sunshine) followed by the wettest April I can remember.
Forecast to rain allllllllll week.
Awesome.

#108 Julia on 04.24.17 at 8:28 am

#7 Amazon girl
“Lots of properties are paying a low rate while
there homes are going up.A example of this is some houses in the beaches. House worth north of a million but paying roughly 4000 per year.”

No they don’t. Our assessment is less than $1million in Toronto and we pay over $6,000 in taxes. We haven’t paid $4,000 in many years.
Could be that 1. You have incorrect information on taxes being paid. 2. The house was renovated/rebuilt and not yet reassessed.
With rebuilds and renovations being flipped, realtors will often advertise the taxes based on previous assessment and not on new value after rebuild.

#109 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 04.24.17 at 8:33 am

But there will always be next year, eh ;)

Suckers.

Same goes for your realty bubble.

#110 Yuus bin Haad on 04.24.17 at 8:36 am

Big Jim and Billy Sol say this one’s going to blow up REAL good.

#111 Sonny on 04.24.17 at 8:38 am

Surrey resident calls for tougher home inspection rules to protect home buyers

http://www.cknw.com/2017/04/23/surrey-resident-calls-for-tougher-home-inspection-rules-to-protect-homebuyers/

Frank Loughrey purchased his new townhouse in Surrey’s Clayton Heights when it was partially built only to discover after he took possession there was a long list of problems, including an improperly laid foundation that leaks.

“As it turned out the foundation had honeycombing and so we discovered a leak we figured the builder didn’t vibrate the concrete well enough, we also discovered later the dimple wrap they put on the outside of the foundation wasn’t installed property, there was no tar layer behind.”

Loughrey says he was pressured into buying during the housing craze with only one ‘subject to’ and no time to get an inspection…

#112 T-Rev on 04.24.17 at 9:24 am

#54 yorkville renter

Why shouldn’t someone who owns an asset (a condo, shopping mall, backhoe, water truck, or even the knowledge and skills of themselves or their employees) be able to profit as much as they can from that asset? How would you like it if you were subject to a “wage control”? No more raises for to beyond the inflation rate, because it wouldn’t be fair if you were able to blackmail your employer with the threat of leaving them.

If you don’t like your rent, leave. Find a better value. If there aren’t any, then you’re paying market price. Simple supply and demand; not always pretty but it’s the best system we’ve got.

Central planning and communism- never worked, never will.

#113 Northwind on 04.24.17 at 9:28 am

Some of the so called measures introduced by the Ontario government are more like smoke that Wynne tries to convince us that she is doing her work, like this gem: Making elevators in Ontario buildings more reliable by establishing timelines for elevator repair in consultation with the sector.

Is the the best that her government can offer to curb house market speculation and improve affordability? Hi, Kathleen, we don’t care if you have can give us a lot of bullshit or not, we just want you do something real and effective.

#114 Bat Flipper on 04.24.17 at 9:34 am

How many of those people in that picture are paid promoters, people who have no clue on the new condo spec rules, realtors, Paid Line Stand Ins, etc.?

#115 Lee on 04.24.17 at 9:44 am

#114 Bat Flipper,

Actually, do you know how many if any of those people are Paid Line Stand Ins? That’s a pretty serious allegation to be making against Brad Lamb without proof?

#116 Northwind on 04.24.17 at 9:49 am

#112 T-Rev

If you believe there is such thing called pure supply/demand, why we don’t let the market supply/demand decide the interest rate, instead, we have something called Bank of Canada? Why we even have CHMC.

It is laughable when people cannot make an effective counter argument on social economic matters, they will tag different opinions as communism. Hi, by the way, I even don’t care what a system will be called, as long as it can bring the most benefits for most people.

#117 James on 04.24.17 at 9:50 am

#81 Smoking Man on 04.23.17 at 11:30 pm
Why I’m selling Shlong Branch
Son came up to me with a business plan. Well first off he’s got bit of cancer. Cured. We think. Not sure I can do this because I don’t realy give a crap about other people’s problems. Got enough of my own.
I can’t get zoning for two in a 10 by 10 room for 2 body’s at 4k pet head per month.
He’s a former drug addict. Re hab. Found god and 12 toes.
I don’t think he’s totaly cured. They never are.
But at leased I stopped him from stepping off a bridge. It’s in the archives. Peter kind of wacky was there for me. Thats why I despise DM. He tosed kind of wacky under the bus.
Writers, here is some book food. Father, a proud grey haired sexist with a slight drinking problem. Who’s son, a user, wants you to invest into a rehab center. To cure people like him.
Writers, no one gives a shit about how the sun shines off the newly stained chair in the afternoon, low angle sunlight.
Dr Smoking Man
Best writer in the universe.
…………………………………………………………………..
Which Universe? By the way RBC, the second of the five big banks to report quarterly earnings for 2017, had $3.03 billion of net income during the quarter, up 24 per cent from a year ago. David McKay isn’t getting paid $11M for being a nice guy, he is there to make money for the bank. He cleans out the trash and makes room for the future income producing venues. Peter Chapman has moved on to better and better times in NYC.

#118 Livin Large on 04.24.17 at 9:55 am

Well T-Rex, a couple of reasons come to mind. A orderly society is one of the main “shoulds”.

“Should” usery be permitted? Usery is pure supply/demand economics. Why shouoldn’t someone be permitted to charge you 50% APR if you are prepared to pay it?

Also, you are factually incorrect when you claim central planning has never worked. It always worked until the Industrial Revolution and the collapse of the class systems and monarchy.

Central planning developed before the invention of currency as a natural means to moderate societal dischord and civil chaos in landed society.

Communism in the Lenin sense may have failed but central planning and governmental protectionism is alive and well all over the world.

#119 AK on 04.24.17 at 10:18 am

Nasdaq Q1 to-date EPS growth of +46%

Keep buying houses, Toronto.

#120 what bubble? on 04.24.17 at 10:25 am

#4 Trumpocalypce2017
Then Putin will move on Ukraine and the Baltics…
———————————————————–

why do you refer to that miserable pro ukranian propaganda, who might take that serious?

#121 CJBob on 04.24.17 at 10:35 am

I haven’t read today’s comments but let me take a guess:

– Several posts about interest rates being too low and Poloz being the devil
– Several posts about how all government is stupid and wrong and we’re overtaxed
– Many happy posts about how the housing crash is just around the corner
– One post pointing out that the same people have been saying the housing crash is just around the corner for 8 years now
– Several incoherent posts from some drunk guy

How’d I do?

#122 OffshoreObserver on 04.24.17 at 10:51 am

IMAGINE…

The BLOCKCHAIN benefits when applied to Canadian property titles (with acknowledgement to Bill Shakespeare–“first we get rid of the lawyers…”:

1/ “Contract for sale”: buyer and seller agree on price:
i/no commission to irrelevant Realtor;
ii/ no legal fees; and when you think about it: a transparent cost of government;

2/ Transparent title–at least such claims as easements, etc. would be clear;

3/ Comparative value of property tax expenditures:

i/Compare expenditures on school teachers, street cleaners, etc across regions, etc.

4/ Of course, we are talking about a “FREE MARKET” here!

References:

1.W3CDavid Morris
2. BITCOIN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43e6eAAeGCs&spfreload=10
1. BITCOIN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43e6eAAeGCs&spfreload=10
2. BLOCKCHAIN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40ikEV6xGg4&spfreload=10
3. FACTOM: https://www.factom.com/about
4. http://www.housingwire.com/articles/39733-so-youve-heard-about-blockchain-but-what-is-it

Wholly impossible. — Garth

#123 Capt. Serious on 04.24.17 at 11:01 am

I see the Leafs haters are out, as expected. You folks need to get better hobbies. Support your own team. Take up sailing or knitting. Anything, really.

#124 TurnerNation on 04.24.17 at 11:10 am

VIX down 25%.

#125 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.24.17 at 11:33 am

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.24.17 at 8:28 am
Ho hum.
Another Monday, another downpour in the Lower Brainland.
The grayest March on record ( 70.5 hours of sunshine) followed by the wettest April I can remember.
Forecast to rain allllllllll week.
Awesome.
————————
But, but say the sheeple it’s “liquid sunshine” and better than snow.
Be positive, damnit.

#126 yorkville renter on 04.24.17 at 11:41 am

#112 T-Rev – WRONG.

At what point is setting a maximum increase Communism? Are you implying that the market is controlled, therefore an owner doesn’t have full control of their asset? I suppose EVERYTHING is actually Communism since there aren’t any real free markets anymore.

The Market Price is set at the time of the rental. No one says you can’t rent an asset for whatever you’d like at the start of the rental contract. It’s what happens after the start that requires some level of management.

As Livin’ Large said in #118, using your logic there, there should be no Usury laws… In fact, let’s have all the banks jack up their rates to 10% and see what these “owners” say about rent control.

For the record I own real estate (Commercial/Residential mix), I’ve owned my home, but have chosen to rent for the past few years. I’m not coming at this from a “sour grapes” perspective.

#127 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.24.17 at 11:43 am

#111 Sonny on 04.24.17 at 8:38 am
Surrey resident calls for tougher home inspection rules to protect home buyers

http://www.cknw.com/2017/04/23/surrey-resident-calls-for-tougher-home-inspection-rules-to-protect-homebuyers/

Frank Loughrey purchased his new townhouse in Surrey’s Clayton Heights when it was partially built only to discover after he took possession there was a long list of problems, including an improperly laid foundation.
Loughrey says he was pressured into buying during the housing craze with only one ‘subject to’ and no time to get an inspection…
———————-
It’s time to bring back public flogging for idiots who buy without inspection and then complain.

#128 Livin Large on 04.24.17 at 11:44 am

So, when are interest rates going to climb?

I have been reading since 2009 that rates have nowhere to go but up yet they haven’t run up in the intervening 8 years. Hell, they haven’t effectively increased in about 20 years. All logic suggests that they have to go up but reality and logic don’t seem to be on the same page.

I may have been just a very lucky SOB but I have never experienced a mortgage payment increase on renewal since I bought ny house in late 1997. In fact, I paid my mortgage off in 14 years by shortening my ammortization every time rates fell on renewal.

Maybe out here in the boonies of SWO the feeding frenzies of YVR and YYZ never really materialized but I can tell you that in those 14 years my mortgage payment PI never increased. I paid about $875 per month from beginning to end.

The posted mortgage rates did fluxuate at times but never more than 1% higher than I paid in 1997 and when they did inch up, I used a broker to get a better rate than my own bank and branch were willing to give me. I was lucky as well that my first career out of university was at a newly minted Schedule 1 Chartered Bank in consumer credit and I learned a few important rules of money mangement and real estate. Like, never buy a house for much more than current comparable rentals are going for and never buy a place for more than 3-4X your gross income. No way to do that now that prices have no relationship to incomes.

My point is that 20 years ago, it was at least still possible for a single person to buy a livable home with some land and not exceed the 3-4X gross income rule AND still keep the basic housing expense to at or just below 25% of their GDSR and as it turns out, with a little luck and timing, never increase their actual monthly payment while reducing their ammortization a bit.

Without the interest rate environment of the last 20 years, I don’t think I could have been mortgage free in 14 years.

So, when are we going to see some significant increases in lending rates to kick the over extended borrowers in the slats?

In 1997 I bought this nice little semi that was Power of Sale and paid 5% below the appraised level so when will the impending crash bring a rush of SFH power of sale opportunities?

The US collapse took 5 years or so and started before the 2008 meltdown so do I have to wait three years after a new meltdown in Ontario to have a decent selection of depressed price SFHs?

#129 acdel on 04.24.17 at 11:56 am

Each posts in the past where I referred to the U.S. economy numbers completely wrong and the truth would appear after the election I was mocked, Oh well!

Read on:

http://investmentwatchblog.com/11-facts-that-prove-that-the-u-s-economy-in-2017-is-in-far-worse-shape-than-it-was-in-2016/

#130 For those about to flop... on 04.24.17 at 11:59 am

Well,with not much time left in April I had a sneak peak to see if the numbers for Vancouver proper had picked up after record lows in March and I didn’t see any type of recovery on the Westside of Vancouver.

Here’s some of the numbers I saw.
Year over year appreciation or decline ,then total sales the last 56 days, and how many of these sales were detached.

Shaughnessy down 65.4% 4 sales 2 detached.

Kerrisdale down 19.3% 30 sales 12 detached

Point Grey down 33% 35 sales 22 detached

South Granville down 26.3% 20 sales 15 detached

Arbutus up 10.6% 8 sales 7 detached

Southlands down 11.1% 2 sales 2 detached

Dunbar down 5.2% 39sales 33 detached

Mackenzie Heights up 0.1% 6 sales 6 detached

And so you can see by the numbers only Arbutus is up by a decent amount with Mackenzie basically flat and the rest sucking wind.

Some neighborhoods seem to have half decent sales numbers compared to say Shaughnessy but they are only roughly half of last years spring market.

That’s the top end covered and so I also I had a look at the bottom end of Vancouver proper in the detached market under 1.2m a couple of units had moved since the last time I looked ,but you still had roughly a quarter of the houses having to do price reductions to get interest and still no takers.

Most of the activity seems to be in the middle of the market…

M42BC

#131 smart contracts on 04.24.17 at 12:23 pm

122 OffshoreObserver on 04.24.17 at 10:51 am

IMAGINE…

The BLOCKCHAIN benefits when applied to Canadian property titles (with acknowledgement to Bill Shakespeare–“first we get rid of the lawyers…”:

1/ “Contract for sale”: buyer and seller agree on price:
i/no commission to irrelevant Realtor;
ii/ no legal fees; and when you think about it: a transparent cost of government;

2/ Transparent title–at least such claims as easements, etc. would be clear;

3/ Comparative value of property tax expenditures:

i/Compare expenditures on school teachers, street cleaners, etc across regions, etc.

4/ Of course, we are talking about a “FREE MARKET” here!

References:

1.W3CDavid Morris
2. BITCOIN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43e6eAAeGCs&spfreload=10
1. BITCOIN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43e6eAAeGCs&spfreload=10
2. BLOCKCHAIN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40ikEV6xGg4&spfreload=10
3. FACTOM: https://www.factom.com/about
4. http://www.housingwire.com/articles/39733-so-youve-heard-about-blockchain-but-what-is-it

Wholly impossible. — Garth

====

Which part do you think is “wholly impossible” and why?

For starters you cannot transfer a deed without a lawyer, without paying the land transfer tax nor registering the transaction with FINTRAC. — Garth

#132 Pete from St. Cesaire on 04.24.17 at 1:15 pm

Honestly why do people care so much about an outcome in a sporting event? Even as a kid i thought the other children where just weird for talking about sports all the time. I really feel bad when i see people all crazy and demented cheering and talking about a game. I am even more amazed how they were able to brainwash the next generation of women into worshipping sports?
—————————————–
I agree. Why do they waste their lives focusing on something that is completely irrelevant? Yet at the same time they seem to have no grasp of their own lives or the world around them. Sports are of no consequence to you unless you are one of the athletes.

#133 smart contracts on 04.24.17 at 1:18 pm

#131 smart contracts on 04.24.17 at 12:23 pm

122 OffshoreObserver on 04.24.17 at 10:51 am

IMAGINE…

The BLOCKCHAIN benefits when applied to Canadian property titles (with acknowledgement to Bill Shakespeare–“first we get rid of the lawyers…”:

1/ “Contract for sale”: buyer and seller agree on price:
i/no commission to irrelevant Realtor;
ii/ no legal fees; and when you think about it: a transparent cost of government;

2/ Transparent title–at least such claims as easements, etc. would be clear;

3/ Comparative value of property tax expenditures:

i/Compare expenditures on school teachers, street cleaners, etc across regions, etc.

4/ Of course, we are talking about a “FREE MARKET” here!

References:

1.W3CDavid Morris
2. BITCOIN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43e6eAAeGCs&spfreload=10
1. BITCOIN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43e6eAAeGCs&spfreload=10
2. BLOCKCHAIN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40ikEV6xGg4&spfreload=10
3. FACTOM: https://www.factom.com/about
4. http://www.housingwire.com/articles/39733-so-youve-heard-about-blockchain-but-what-is-it

Wholly impossible. — Garth

====

Which part do you think is “wholly impossible” and why?

For starters you cannot transfer a deed without a lawyer, without paying the land transfer tax nor registering the transaction with FINTRAC. — Garth

===

All of those and more can be included in the process in terms of technology. Unless the government wants the public keep paying for “lawyer tax” by issuing contract templates, of course.

Bloomberg Law

https://bol.bna.com/the-next-level-smart-contracts-and-real-estate-deals/

Pillsbury Law

https://www.pillsburylaw.com/en/news-and-insights/blockchain-the-impact-on-the-real-estate-industry.html

Deloitte

https://www2.deloitte.com/nl/nl/pages/real-estate/articles/blockchain-the-next-game-changer-in-real-estate.html

We are ages away from practicality. Even so, there is no clear benefit or cost saving. So, no point. — Garth

#134 NoBody on 04.24.17 at 1:19 pm

#126 yorkville renter on 04.24.17 at 11:41 am
#112 T-Rev – WRONG.

At what point is setting a maximum increase Communism? Are you implying that the market is
As Livin’ Large said in #118, using your logic there, there should be no Usury laws… In fact, let’s have all the banks jack up their rates to 10% and see what these “owners” say about rent control.

For the record I own real estate (Commercial/Residential mix), I’ve owned my home, but have chosen to rent for the past few years. I’m not coming at this from a “sour grapes” perspective

I find it hard to believe that you’ve owned commercial real estate and yet you can’t figure out that the end of a LEASE is the end of a CONTRACT.

Yet the government obligates one party to RENEW this contract against it’s will and at a predefined price that may be thousands of dollars lower than that party can get from someone else.

In fact banks can raise your interest rate at the end of your term at will and they can also tell you to take a walk. (After giving them their money back)

This is not the same for the house rental market where the landlord is held hostage and cannot simply decide not to renew a lease to someone for an arbitrary reason.

This is why a lot of houses also sit empty. People simply don’t want to be held hostage by renters and want to have their home available to them when they want it, not when the renter decides it.

#135 Al on 04.24.17 at 1:27 pm

It looks like the multiple offers and all cash well over asking offers on offer day or prior have gone the way of the Dodo Bird. Well done Premier Wynne!

#136 NoName on 04.24.17 at 1:46 pm

@fartz

It makes me cringe, every time I expeerience “paper” version or elevator ride, i can definetly say that harm over time is measured on non linear scale.

https://youtu.be/QAxFMTsPwLo

#137 Money is drying up for the housing bubble on 04.24.17 at 1:49 pm

Investors will now see these are not risk free. The housing bubble is finished. http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/syndicated-mortages-1.4078124

#138 Ole Doberman on 04.24.17 at 1:57 pm

Gartho it’s interesting that Genworth’s share price is holding up considering the fate of Home Capital Gr.

Do you see Genworth facing the same fate in due time?
Dominos are only beginning to fall?

Genworth is an insurer, not a lender. — Garth

#139 For those about to flop... on 04.24.17 at 2:26 pm

NoName on 04.24.17 at 1:46 pm
@fartz

It makes me cringe, every time I expeerience “paper” version or elevator ride, i can definetly say that harm over time is measured on non linear scale.

https://youtu.be/QAxFMTsPwLo

\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*

Hey NoName ,it sounds like your English teacher has a bad stutter.

Let me know if the variety of this one is better…

M42BC

#140 bdwy sktrn on 04.24.17 at 2:35 pm

noname;
what software are you using?
can you have it ignore certain characters?

#141 rainclouds on 04.24.17 at 2:39 pm

#121 CJ I haven’t read today’s comments but let me take a guess:

– Several posts about interest rates being too low and Poloz being the devil
– Several posts about how all government is stupid and wrong and we’re overtaxed
– Many happy posts about how the housing crash is just around the corner
– One post pointing out that the same people have been saying the housing crash is just around the corner for 8 years now
– Several incoherent posts from some drunk guy

How’d I do?

Not bad, but, u missed the dude from Taz who Flops relevant YVR Sales info onto the blog. Apparently there is a divergence between the Housing Industry “data” and Reality and no housing doesn’t always go up.

Your Welcome…………..

#142 westcdn on 04.24.17 at 3:21 pm

As much I have being soul searching recently, my instincts are kicking in. I look at the world and shake my head. I made some outstanding investments in my life but I doubt myself today. I see more sunny days ahead. It may be time to sell when people are greedy. I should have clarified that I am getting 10% returns on capital invested.

It will hurt to sell. All good things come to an end. I decided to keep the preferreds as they look to be called.
My debts must die.

#143 Pre-retiree on 04.24.17 at 3:47 pm

#132 Pete from St-Cesaire:
Honestly why do people care so much about an outcome in a sporting event? Even as a kid i thought the other children where just weird for talking about sports all the time. I really feel bad when i see people all crazy and demented cheering and talking about a game. I am even more amazed how they were able to brainwash the next generation of women into worshipping sports?
—————————————–
I agree. Why do they waste their lives focusing on something that is completely irrelevant? Yet at the same time they seem to have no grasp of their own lives or the world around them. Sports are of no consequence to you unless you are one of the athletes.

_____________________________

Agreed:
If you believe the saying:
“Du pain et des jeux”, so that people do not revolt, or have time to examine their lives.

#144 Alex N Calgary on 04.24.17 at 4:07 pm

Dan.T had a good post back there on the root causes and continuation of the housing bubble. I’ve been reading this blog for a long while now, I can’t say I would have ever thought Toronto would have kept going, vancouver too! but if there is money, easy easy money to be made in flipping housing, people will do till last gasp! HAA! to think I work for a living and tried to be prudent and avoid the bubble!

The major Chinese investment here is because of the local flipping back and forth to each other, I get what you’re saying. They are just easy to blame and very visible compared to the majority of locals who kept these train rolling, who can blame them for investing in a market that continues to spiral wildly upwards making them rich and keeping their currency safe?

Half hearted efforts to do something about the bubble, but the Feds have their lips zipped tight, why would the local provinces want to wade in and screw their re-election chances with real fixes? Keep the housing rolling, F and Carney goosed it to get the Cons majority, rolling that back is going to take….something? I’m lost Garth, I bet you are bewildered too.

#145 TurnerNation on 04.24.17 at 4:27 pm

A Guest blogger is on BNN right now.

#146 I'm stupid on 04.24.17 at 4:45 pm

What will happen to borrowers if Home Capital Group goes bankrupt?

#147 Simplyput7 on 04.24.17 at 5:26 pm

#137 Money is drying up for the housing bubble on 04.24.17 at 1:49 pm

I agree with your comment.

I don’t really understand the difference between the companies and their “investment” products:
– Genworth is an insurer
– Home Capital is a lender
– Fortress Real Estate issues syndicate mortgages
– then there is shadow banking

Sound like Caveat emptor – buyer beware, for all the types of investments.

Or for me as an investor, a simple ‘No, I’ll pass on all’, seems to work best.

#148 Steven H response on 04.24.17 at 5:44 pm

Steven H,

You’re funny. Lighten up and see it this way. If I owned something valued over $2million, I wouldn’t be ready ting it to a bunch ch of students. Also, it’s also highlights the ridiculous lengths people have to go to buy a house. And houses are no longer purchased for living but renting out while trying to cash I on appreciation. Or the lengths people will have to go just to make mortgage payments. So I wonder how many people are doing this??? No fake news as all the info I posted is real. Relax, you’ll need it as we watch this nightmare unfold.

#149 ugly call for TNT on 04.24.17 at 5:55 pm

@TNT

did you get out of your EUR call with any skin left on your bones?

face ripping EUR short squeeze bud.

happens all the time I’ve learned

#150 jess on 04.24.17 at 7:43 pm

I remember reading about option arms back in 2006 $255b.
stated income loans income of 14k could buy a 724,000 house no money down countrywide executive…” anyone who could fog a mirror could get a loan”

or the loan officers called it “the monster”
https://www.amazon.com/Monster-Predatory-Lenders-Bankers-America/dp/031261053X#reader_031261053X

===========

http://www.thesudburystar.com/2017/04/24/more-than-4000-sudburians-get-extra-ei
…” Employment and Social Development Canada says there have more than 267,000 claims for the extra weeks as of the middle of April, with benefits totalling almost $1.06 billion.”

========

Premier Kathleen Wynne announced the details of the province’s three-year basic income project during a speech in Hamilton Monday.

“The project will explore the effectiveness of providing a basic income to people who are currently living on low incomes, whether they are working or not,” Wynne said. “People participating in our pilot communities will receive a minimum amount of income each year — a basic income, no matter what.”

The pilot will launch in the Hamilton area — including in Brantford, Ont., and Brant County — and the Thunder Bay, Ont.,-area late this spring, and in Lindsay, Ont., this fall, with a minimum payment of nearly $17,000 for an eligible single person.

#151 Great West LifeCo Lays off 13% on 04.25.17 at 8:59 am

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/great-west-life-layoffs-1.4084179

#152 Sir James on 04.25.17 at 11:29 am

“The pendulum swings. For the horse like a man. Out over the rim. Is ice cream to him.”

Tragically Hip