Sometimes surprises happen. Oil prices collapsing 70% in a few months. Crazy Brits voting themselves off the island during Brexit. Millions of deplorables electing a reality TV star misogynist billionaire to be president. Then the stock market thinking he’s catnip.
If you’ve got investments, surprises matter. Over-react, and risk making a big mistake – because the unexpected has a way of becoming the new normal.
On Friday, the latest surprise. Donald Trump, the firebrand, rebel, strongman populist, is turning into a lame duck barely 90 days after storming into the White House. He already had an impact on Canadian investors this week – responsible for a tepid budget that backed off new eat-the-rich taxes – and now more’s coming.
Late in the afternoon, at the instruction of the Prez, Republicans pulled their signature bill from a scheduled vote in Congress. It would have repealed and replaced Obamacare – one of the pivotal issues Trump campaigned on. The reason? It wouldn’t pass. Despite his own party controlling both the House and the Senate, and despite his personal bullying and threats to legislators that they will lose their seats if they defy him, it died. “I won’t sugarcoat this,” speaker and Trump ally Paul Ryan said, “it’s disappointing.”
For weeks Republican politicians have faced town hall meetings stuffed with angry, scared voters terrified they’ll lose health care. Since it was passed, Obamacare, as imperfect as it is, has resulted in the lowest number of people ever (under 11%) being without coverage. It’s now clear the balance of power has shifted for those politicians – from the president and leader of their party to the voters they answer to.
It’s a big deal. Stock markets were watching this vote closely. Losing it means Trump may have a far harder time doing the stuff he wants – like slashing corporate taxes, reducing regulations and spending megabucks on infrastructure. It was exactly those actions which investors felt would expand the economy and boost profits – so they ran up stock values more than 9% in anticipation. Meanwhile the Fed, also believing Trump, as well as looking at growing economic strength, smelled inflation and pushed ahead with another interest rate hike. As a result, stocks soared, bonds slumped and yields plumped.
Meanwhile, Trump stumbles. The FBI has launched an investigation into his campaign’s ties with Russia. His Muslim travel ban was ridiculed and killed. His ‘America First’ budget fattening the military and starving the environment, arts and social spending was dead upon arrival. There’s no evidence to support his claims three million people voted illegally or Barack Obama ordered a wiretap on him. Last week he insulted Germany and his secretary of state shunned NATO. The man is an unpredictable tangle of ego, bravado and well-aged testosterone.
Now he’s losing support where it matters most – in Congress. Without that, he has no agenda. Just tweets. The rebuke on Friday was sharp and decisive, made all the more poignant because it was his first real attempt to turn crusade into law. This defeat also calls into question the man’s status as a grand deal-maker – again making investors question whether or not he can slash corporate taxes, impose a far-reaching border tax, build a 2,000-mile-long, 30-foot wall or resurrect faulty bridges and aging airports.
So what now?
Time will tell, but there’s a good argument for saying the Trump Bump on Wall Street could deflate in the next few trading sessions. It’s been a long time since markets took a 10% dip, but they may be ready to give back much of the ground gained since the November election. Beyond that potential correction, investors will probably be putting more faith in fundamentals, like profits and labour stats, than in one man. The US economy is strong, stable and trustworthy. Everything the leader is not.
This is why a balanced and diversified portfolio works. It’s designed to blunt surprises and protect as markets decline. When the growth assets fall, the safe ones rise. And meanwhile you own stuff that pays, rain or shine.
Investing is not gambling. Preserving capital is equal to growing it. Chasing the latest hot thing – whether it’s US equities or a trendy semi – is asking for heartache. The best surprise is one you can ignore. There are many coming.
142 comments ↓
Don’t worry Garth… Enjoy your moment. It won’t last:)
The markets were due for a correction or consolidation. Obamacare is a sensitive issue but the roads and tax cuts will go through.
Long live der Trumpenfurer!
Garth do you still think this housing bubble is going to deflate slowly, or are we looking at a major downturn taking with it the entire Canadian economy?
Balanced and diversified portfolio? Can someone please explain that? My friends says exactly what garth says buying etfs etc… my FIL says the same but he buys all stocks in all different areas like banks, pipelines etc..
My friend says my FIL is wrong and he’s not balanced and diversified, what’s the difference?
Unless FIL has a seven-figure portfolio to invest he cannot achieve diversification, which increases risk. — Garth
a potus will never win the fight against the FBI and CIA
The voters were scared of losing their FREE insurance paid for by working families trying to keep up with their own cost of living while paying for others too.
Nobody is told they will never be able to buy their own insurance policy. “Lose their insurance” is just more fake news.
Great post.
Only oil slightly moved (up .40 cents today) after the announcement. Not priced in?
It moved a lot yesterday up and down leading up to today’s proceedings.
Trump is lucky if he finishes his term. He is not as good as he thinks. No matter what he does the debt will continue to grow wildly and although Europe and Japan will likely go down first and help the US buy some time, the US and Canada will confront an historic sovereign debt crisis before the end of 2020
Trump is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t
Word has it they will launch a VAT instead of a BAT for a vote
If Trump is not able to pass his next big test we might be looking at a full fledged 20-30% bear market
Confidence in government is declining worldwide and it will disappear
Let’s hope this clown down there gets his act togethet
He is for sure one and done now and Ryan is going down with the ship on this one. Every year, popularity is growing for Obamacare. Trump is a business guy, he should focus on business. His administration is a bunch of old, white billionaires that are out of touch from social issues. Leave them alone. If he doesn’t get impeached, he should focus on the infrastructure. That should be his signature piece of legislation.
Apparently buy a house is a good idea someone told me
Got a 200k GIC 2.2% interest (woohoo) for a year – zero risk – sleepin like a baby
Inflation is 2%. You are making nothing. — Garth
This is a very common foot-in-door Strategy; once the people have something, however flawed it may be, as long as it has some use, there is never any going back without it. Obamacare was critical for Obama to pass and implement, because it is now in forever, in some form, regardless of how much it costs. It can only ever be fiddled with, never removed. Unless majority of politicians don’t want to get re-elected, even if they didn’t vote for it.
How President Trump figured he could tackle the healthcare issue in what 90 or so days of taking office, is beyond belief considering his predecessor spent 2 terms on it. This definitely brings to question if Mr trump will be able to get congress on board on the rest of his agenda i am thinking likely not, and suspect there will be a period of steady as she goes Remember the us economy is doing very well and the various senators are
loath to risk derailing a perfectly good economic recovery playing out: Like Henry Ford said : if it is not broken don’t fix it
Congressional slapdown to the toad is the best news of the week. One more failure (i.e. budget) and he’ll tuck his tiny tail ‘tween his legs and sulk off in a hissy fit down to Florida, as lame duck a president as there has ever been. I can’t help but think resignation before impeachment. Maybe a .306 to the noggin, but I’m not a violent man.
Thanks for the response Garth, but I’m a novice investor and don’t know why a person can’t follow your rules of investing by putting so much in US, bonds etc… say they have 250,000 but buy equities instead of etfs, why 1 million portfolio?
Are negative rates coming? Like -1.5%?whats going to happen then??? Panicking….
The meltdown within the Oval Office begins.
This is when frustrated leaders start looking for external distractions.
Like war.
Great post Garth!
Donald Trump approves TransCanada’s Keystone XL pipeline after eight years of haggling
http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/energy/the-u-s-state-department-approves-transcanadas-keystone-pipeline&pubdate=2017-03-24
Trump, flanked by TransCanada Corp. president and CEO Russ Girling in the Oval Office, issued a presidential permit for the $8 billion Keystone XL pipeline, more than eight years after the 830,000 barrels-per-day oil pipeline between Alberta and the U.S. Gulf Coast was first proposed.
“You’ve been waiting for a long, long time,” Trump said to Girling. “It’s a great day for American jobs, and a historic moment for North America, and energy independence. This announcement is part of a new era of American energy policy that will lower costs for American families, . . . reduce our dependence on foreign oil and create thousands of jobs.”
Well well.
I guess The Donald has realized he cant rule by 90 day Executive Orders alone….
Lets see how the 18 month slog through a hostile press and a barely subservient congress hammers the Trumpster’s ego leading up to the mid term elections.
Bullshit only got him so far in business…..this Presidential thingy is the real deal.
Trump may not have been able to replace Obamacare, yet.
The house republicans decided not to get behind the bill created by Ryan, and so Obamacare stays.
And if the deductibles continue to rise, or the coverage gets worse, or it becomes too costly to actually use, then Trump will not wear this.
The democrats will for the original policy.
The GOP will, for failing to replace it, as well they should.
Trump will just turn his attention to something else.
And if the GOP continues to block him, them the people get to decide on whether they want to support a president, whose policies that they agree with, or the house and senate GOP members, that are as obstructive to change as are the democrats.
US politics is quite a mess.
Trump is not the cause of this.
But his policies may certainly show the American people that nothing will ever get done by their elected representatives, that have been bought and sold by special interests groups and corporate America.
So far it is obvious neither the republicans or the democrats have any interest in providing value to the American citizenry.
Not something that can be blamed on Trump.
#2 Ole Doberman
Not So Quick There, Small question of a hell of a lot of money he has not got in hand…..
Garth just reminded me of what one of my Irish friends said to me about what is going on. He said “whale oil beef hooked”.
And as I said before, I went overweight cash starting from Nov. to Jan. Still diversified, still liquid, although somewhat unbalanced.
I think perhaps the old sell in May and go away statement may have some real meaning this year. Only perhaps sooner.
Flop, miss your pink reports. Hope your healing and your life is going ok. Difficult times in a person’s life can be trying, for every area of one’s life. Be well.
It wouldn’t pass. Despite his own party controlling both the House and the Senate, and despite his personal bullying and threats to legislators that they will lose their seats if they defy him, it died. “I won’t sugarcoat this,” speaker and Trump ally Paul Ryan said, “it’s disappointing.”
Please remember that Trump is at war with the GOP. They fought against him every step of the way and are still fighting him. “His own party” is misleading language as it’s his party in name only. He never had the support of congress or Paul Ryan.
This was all a setup to make Ryan fail so that he would no longer be an obstacle to Trump.
He’s done. Carve him up.
As I posted recently, the Vancouver RE market has perked up this spring. Lots of new For Sale signs on the West Side and Sold signs are also on the rise. Check out this over 100 years old dump listed at 3.4 million. Someone is trying to flip this for a killing after owning it for just seven months. The west coast madness continues.
https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2141628/2482-w-7th-avenue-vancouver-bc
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMEFWNQ==
#4 Smokeshow
Diversified essentially means when one part of the portfolio goes up, the other part goes down and vice versa. You can diversify in many different ways but Garth likes to diversify by holding different equities and bonds around the world.
Balanced means you have a fair weighting in each investment class. Garth uses a 60/40 portfolio for his allocation, which is pretty nicely balanced for the average Joe. More aggressive investors will increase their equities and reduce bonds, and less aggressive will invest in more bonds and less equities. An unbalanced portfolio would have a very heavy weighting of either equity or bonds, perhaps 80/20 either way. Any reduction in the 80% holding would not be offset by a gain in the 20% holding, thus it is not very balanced.
Both your FIL and friends can be correct, they just use a different approach. Your friend has an easier approach by investing in ETF’s but if your FIL knows what he is doing you can certainly be both balanced and diversified by buying individual stocks in different industries.
Looks like the province is coming over to the dark side finally. “Ontario Financial Watchdog Starts Planning For Real Estate Declines.”
https://betterdwelling.com/ontario-financial-watchdog-starts-planning-for-real-estate-declines/
Harper: Never let a little democracy nor the Charter of Rights stand in the way of your own narrow-minded ideology. (Epic Fail 2015)
Trump: Never let a little democracy nor the Constitution stand in the way of your own narrow-minded ideology. (Epic Fail 2017)
The library next to the Home Depot in London had a big line out the door and I thought “another Real estate seminar”. Not.
It was a Show and Tell for the Federal Conservative race with three candidates. It didn’t look like there was free food or coffee so I left but it looked like a FULL HOUSE.
It’s not cottage season yet and Christmas is over so people tend to go where it’s affordable at this time of the year.
I remember before the U.S. election people were saying that Obamacare was getting too expensive. Also Paul Ryan said something like let Obamacare run its course.
And to me this means with Obamacare most people will not be able to afford it, if too many can’t afford it then Obamacare will be gone.
I say since Obamacare is in place try to think how to improve the mistakes overtime. Everybody should try to work together to have a health care in place. Give it a new name to combine the two but don’t use personal names as that divides. A name that unites.
And I’m ok with the 2.2% – I have a business partner whose unbalanced portfolio is givin him the kaniptions
# Entrepreneur
The act was originally called ‘The Affordable Care Act.”
Only when the Republicans saw it wasn’t working 100% for everyone, the renamed it “Obama Care” to put the blame on Barack and the Demos…
What should the Democrats call Trump’s problems in the upcoming mid term elections?
As they said in Nam “Payback is a Mother_______”
Now he’s losing support where it matters most – in Congress
————————–
I predicted when Trump was elected that in about 6 months he would be reduced to tweeting in his office while adults (not Bannon) ran the show. Congress is not a subservient court for an elected king.
Whatever you think of Trump, and I try not to, he is living proof that the US is actually a democracy because the party establishment could not stop him. He may also prove that US checks and balances work despite the folly of the electorate. Congress critturs spend half their lives raising money for the next election because they know they can and will be replaced by an enraged citizenry. This is the basic reason neither Trump nor Paul Ryan could command their vote.
Compare this with Soviet Canada where party leaders can control the party vote and decide who represents you in your riding. Politics here is a lot tidier but is it a Faustian bargain?
Trump brings the out of control corruption of the U.S. Government out into the open and you guys keep calling him the bad guy.
The rich and political class is against Trump for the same reason the deplorable is against the rich and political class. They will never understand each other.
Scary thing is the deplorable’s have been pushed to the wall and have nothing to lose.
Don’t nobilize a man who lies. — Garth
T2 is on his 4 days on 4 days off routine and mostly not “present” anyway…
Diss the Trumpman all you want, folks but at least he has accomplished something in his career. Now he’s working with politicians. No wonder he can’t get any traction.
In this age of automation, why do we keep feeding these trolls in DC or Ottawa? Seriously, what is the point to employ them and give them authority to make our collective lives more miserable each day.
Don’t even get me started for the poor and sad excuse for leadership we have in Canada.
It all sucks.
I sold out 100% of my US positions, and 95% of my CAD positions the first week of March. It’s fun to watch as this market ever so s-l-o-w-l-y rolls over onto it’s back.
I’ll be buying back into my same positions once my price targets are reached.
Rollover baby!! Daddy needs a 10% (or more?) discount on his shares! lol
Your strategy is why 90% of DIY investors fail. — Garth
#20 crowded farts
“Bullshit only got him so far in business…..this Presidential thingy is the real deal.”
You have got to be kidding. Nothing is a “real deal” in politics. Spending OPM and working with special interest and lobby groups all day is not even in the same league as being productive, taking risks and managing your own wealth and expenses.
Try harder next time. I’m still laughing how stupid some people apparently are.
Real deal and politics.. ROFML
Garth,
I am not so sure why you are so hard on Trump. He’s been in what, 100 days? Sure, he appears to be trying to fulfill his whole campaign by summer so he can go golfing, which was probably a bit optimistic, but he is for the most part doing what he said he would when he campaigned, or at least trying.
Sure the health care thing died, but that was always going to be one of the most contentious and difficult thing. He’s got almost 4 years left so let the mechanisms do there thing.
He approved KeystoneXL. Probably not a big deal right now as we are awash in oil, but long term this is big news for Alberta and hence Canada. It never made sense to try and ship that oil to China and anyway the natives aren’t going to let an oil pipeline through, so south to the large US market makes the most sense. Also oil pipeline spills are way easier to deal with than a tanker crash or a deep ocean bow out. How quickly we forget. Also the tailing ponds and mines are yucky when they are in operation, but have you ever looked at them after reclamation? It’s a forest with wildlife. Hard to say fracking shale is better.
Did Trump neuter the B&J budget? Well I doubt it but if so he is my friend.
Did Trump collude with the Russians? This story is such a bunch of delusional hyperventilation it’s going to go down with the “War of the Worlds” radio broadcast.
Did Trump get wiretapped? No, they don’t splice wires with alligator clips to intercept calls or put bugs in the potted plants anymore like the old days. But conversations were leaked and that means they were monitored. These days every cell phone and computer is a bug. We are probably being monitored right now by some algorithm residing on a server somewhere. But what’s more important is that private conversations were leaked and that is against the law. This is a story to watch. We don’t have all the facts yet, but perhaps we will in time.
I don’t understand the brouhaha over the travel ban. It is well within the privy of the president to set immigration policy. He will win on this one eventually. People want it. It’s a large part of why he won.
Did he get the popular vote? Well no, but neither did Glamboy or Nutely. That’s just how it works.
Someone should take his phone away though. He needs to hire a “tweeter of the POTUS” or “TOTPOTUS”.
As Scott Adams has often said about the goings on right now, people are watching the same screen but seeing 2 different movies depending on their biases. The Trump fans see a strong leader that has finally promised to address issues important to them and being attacked by the deep state, whom they hate. The Trump opposition sees a crazy tyrant that wants to attack democracy and dresses up in vagina costumes to express their displeasure. But it’s the same script. It’s a horrible divide, the 2 sides cannot even talk to each other. The people who voted Trump in are appalled by vagina costumes and think the are vulgar and repulsive. The vagina costumes think Trump supporters are vulgar and repulsive. They have reached a point in US politics where the country is almost entirely divided. Worse than Quebec vs. Canada. At least we can still agree on hockey, Tim Horton’s and poutine.
Your comments are reasonable, with the exception of taking the fringe (vagina costumes) and using it to represent the mainstream (the 65 million people who did not vote for Trump). This device seriously weakens your points. — Garth
#28 GFC v2.0 on 03.24.17 at 7:17 pm
T2: Never let a little capitalism stand in the way of your communist ideology (epic fail everywhere it’s ever been attempted)
MF
No 10% correction for the S&P500 in 2017. 5-8% correction at the most. Too many investors missed the rally. It’s not a trump rally or “trump bump”, it’s a tech lead growth rally.
You people are all insane saving and skimping. Live is made for enjoyment. My wife has a pall. 57 years old. She got the news today. Get your affairs in order.
Really sucks….
Seneca is rocking tonight…
Thank you again for the thoughtful insight. Trump may yet prove to be a lame duck president. He doesn’t seem to be making any friends at home or abroad.
This sounds awwwfully like the complaining we heard during the primaries and the campaign when Trump had “no chance” of winning.
It’s going to be a long 8 years for some people.
MF
Where is the complaint? — Garth
#31 Doug t on 03.24.17 at 7:29 pm
And I’m ok with the 2.2% – I have a business partner whose unbalanced portfolio is givin him the kaniptions
—————-
Where are you getting this? My old man who is 65 is keeping some in cash I’m sure he’d be interested.
Garth is it wise for someone just about to retire to keep a few hundred k in cash incase the stock market crashes so they don’t have to eat dog food?
(a) The market won’t crash. (b) The canned stuff is way too expensive. — Garth
This post tonight is all the more reason why voting does not matter.
“Your comments are reasonable, with the exception of taking the fringe (vagina costumes) and using it to represent the mainstream (the 65 million people who did not vote for Trump). This device seriously weakens your points. — Garth”
Point taken.
Trump pull a brilliant move today. He let Obama care ride.
Now there are a shit load of middle class dem’s who’s premiums and deductibles are going to go through the roof. Obama had the deck stacked who cares what happens after I’m out of office.
All librals elites are owned by insurance companies. They make out like bandits.
Msm will paint it as a failure. Reality, Trump will get another 20 million disgruntled leftys voting for him next go around. People vote with Thier wallets.
Garth. The FBI is going down.. ever hear of Republican Nunnes. He saw the NSA Obama servalanse files.
@36
Garth, you are correct that 90% of retail investors fail and I don’t recommend they follow my strategy unless they enjoy investing another 20+ hours each week (it never ends) on top of their day job.
Most would be better off buying their ETFs and getting a good sleep.
@Doug T, where u get the 2.2% GIC?
@#6 BobCayjun
“The voters were scared of losing their FREE insurance paid for by working families…”
*******************************************
BEFORE Obamacare the US spent more per capita on Healthcare than ANY 1st world nation.
ALL while having one of the worst healthcare participation rates of any nation.
An embarrassment of riches.
The status quo wasnt working……..150 million Americans had coverage ….150 million didnt…..hence Obamacare.
Cuba has better healthcare coverage
Now , barely 2 years into a new, controversial, mandatory ( kinda like Canada) state supported healthcare system…..Trump decides to play with the system before its had a chance to really get up and running…….
But dont listen to me.
Take a PWC audit of the system from 2015 to spell it out for you.
https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://www.pwc.com/us/en/health-industries/top-health-industry-issues/assets/pwc-hri-medical-cost-trend-2015.pdf&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjf4Yn6r_DSAhVQ2GMKHYJOAUAQFggzMAU&usg=AFQjCNGoPXU2bTuOmtqgqnIrW0ksLiV6Lg
Give me a break.
He doesnt give a shit about the “little schmuck loser” (insert Deplorable picture here)
The Trumpster is helping his “Big Pharma” friends who have been dragged kicking and screaming into reducing costs for drugs by a national Obamahealthcare system.
If you were smart, you’d invest in US Healthcare cause us “Boomers” aint getting any younger and our underwear is like a lost man in the desert…….thirsty.
Rents in Megacities Can’t Go Up Forever – Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-23/rents-in-megacities-can-t-go-up-forever
#7 common sense on 03.24.17 at 6:31 pm
Great post.
Only oil slightly moved (up .40 cents today) after the announcement. Not priced in?
—————————————————
I think that move was due to the approval of the Keystone XL project.
This is big news for Alberta Oil Sands as it creates an incentive to keep the patch going, despite the competition from shale oil; especially important considering the news of the discovery in West Texas back in November 2016.
Remember, The XL in Keystone XL means Export Limited.
It will narrow the price between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Western Canadian Select (WCS), which currently sells for $13 less by bringing it the oil closer to tidewater (Gulf of Mexico) and therefore, exportable worldwide.
@#17 Trumpocalypse2017
DAMMIT!
I wish I had of thought of that name when I was patenting Apocalypse2017…. well done………. you Doomer you….. :)
DELETED
This commander and chiefs days, definitely seem numbered. It’s unfortunate Trump is such a flawed personality because what’s occurred, will never happen again.
Once he’s gone, there will never be another disruptor allowed to gain control of the white house.
No Ron Paul, no Bernie Sanders, no one.
It’s actually a little sad to witness, what a wasted opportunity.
#26 Vancouver Brit
U know your stuff that’s for sure, thank you very much for the great explanation, very much appreciated
Thanks again
#14 earthboundmisfit
so far everyone’s OK with that one?
“It’s been a long time since markets took a 10% dip”
—————————————————————
If it happens, It will be a buying opportunity.
Where is the complaint? — Garth
Instead of complaining, maybe I should have used the word “moaning” or “crying”:
-Trump is unfit for president
-Trump is unstable
*post election*
-Trump is still unfit for president
-Trump is still unstable
-Trump is already a lame duck
-Trump will be impeached
-Trump will ruin the environment
-Trump will cause a war
-Trump is going to crash financial markets (new one)
There are a few others too.
Just like in the primaries or campaign, I think it’s premature to write off Trump just yet.
Besides, Obama faced lots of opposition during his presidency from a divided congress, but when Obama faced any opposition, it was labeled “politics” or partisanship. When Trump faces opposition, it’s his fault. His personality flaws. The republicans control congress so they will pass the health care reform bill. It’s just a matter of time.
MF
#38 Nonplused on 03.24.17 at 8:01 pm
………..( for context) ……the people who voted Trump in are appalled by vagina costumes and think the are vulgar and repulsive. The vagina costumes think Trump supporters are vulgar and repulsive. They have reached a point in US politics where the country is almost entirely divided. Worse than Quebec vs. Canada. At least we can still agree on hockey, Tim Horton’s and poutine.
Your comments are reasonable, with the exception of taking the fringe (vagina costumes) and using it to represent the mainstream (the 65 million people who did not vote for Trump). This device seriously weakens your points. — Garth
Important issue that disrupt & threaten investments or instability of our good system::
Another horrid billionaire corrupting with issues of colours, and controlling/fooling the masses. Yesterday, an Important read.
Billionaire Globalist Soros Exposed as Hidden Hand Behind Trump Protests — Provoking US ‘Color Revolution’ – The Free Thought …
thefreethoughtproject.com › soros-trump…
Clearly, attempting to run government like a corporation, using brinkmanship, deflecting, fabrications, bullying isn’t gonna work for the grifter.Double down Donnie will be twittering madly in a few hours while the world is sleeping.
Doubtful there is a plan B. Unless bailing before serving out his mandate is a plan. On the upside N Korea may bear the brunt of the angry cheeto lashing out.
Wow the bar here at Stir is full of estrogen, their flirts hitting my nostrils like a walk in bretanical gardens.
Why can’t chicks leave me alone so I can just type on here insuring that I’m the number 1 greater fool.
I better stop man spreading. I see a stampeed soon, the 40 year old with the 80s hair perm the leader of the pac. She’s drunk and won’t stop google eying me.
Obviously she forgot her glasses.
Good thing I’m wearing running shoes, not that she’s ugly, actually quite pretty.
But Heather is in the building. Won’t end well for curtly top when Heather comes looking for more loot cause her slot machine was being a bitch.
Got a 200k GIC 2.2% interest (woohoo) for a year – zero risk – sleepin like a baby
Inflation is 2%. You are making nothing. — Garth
After taxes they are losing money. No woohoo.
It’s upsetting to see you repeat the common media smears “misogynist” and “muslim ban”.
Trump promoted women to senior positions in his companies, apparently more than in other real estate companies, and had a woman campaign manager, the first to manage a successful presidential election. A misogynist does not do these things.
And a temporary restriction on 7 war torn, terrorist saturated countries (that were selected by Obama), representing only about 10-15% of the worldwide muslim population and from which there is a genuine security risk, is not a muslim ban.
Love your blinkers. — Garth
@#55 Blacksheep
“It’s actually a little sad to witness, what a wasted opportunity….”
*******************************************
Total agreement.
A squandered , once in a lifetime opportunity, to change things for the better is wasted on one mans oversized ego…….
#52 Joseph R.
Thanks but not only WTI went up, so did BRENT (European) as well which would not be impacted by Keystone ????
Ok into the Jack.
I got to get this out befor i pass out. What pisses me off about M103 Seeks don’t think it’s spelt right. Wonderfull people. They ware turbans. Lots of them live in brampton.
I’ve done lots of business with these truly warm hardworking people. Great familys. Beautiful people.
M103 is designed to divide.
Sad. The Hurd won’t know the difference.
That one man plays many parts in his time. Why so serious? He is predictable in his unpredictability. Isn’t that interesting to observe?
Here’s the Quinnipiac University poll on the Republican health care plan to replace the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act:
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2443
Ok I’m not making this shit up, the fact that my thumb still works and my phone not out of juice. A miracle.
There is a 300 hundred lb woman on my lap. She keeps trying to take the phone off me. My cold dead hands is what I’m thinking.
She wants to dance..
Good night dogs I’m going deep into the Jack.
Atoms and destinolgy. ….
I love life and wish you all good fortune. Only reason I said that. It’s feelings like that that bring you unbelievable luck.
The force I’m I’m thinking. Pass it on.
Now how do I get ride of this usfull blanket when trapped on everest where heat is everything.
#50
Check out the wonderful world of Obamacare:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_per_capita
My ex wife is 55 and healthy. No daily meds or health problems. She’s on Obamacare. Pays $485 a month with a $6500 annual deductible.
Went to Dr. Once in the last year. $250 bill plus prescriptions. It came off of her $6500 deductible. Obamacare paid nothing. Nothing!
So if she “lost her insurance” she would save $5820.00 a year. Many other states are far worse.
Garth:
I have a request. Could you take under advisement the notion of reserving comment s 110 – 115 on Saturdays for the Belfountain Book Club and Debating Society (Est. 2017?
Let me sneak one in here. I am kicking myself for not reading (20 years ago) Pierre Burton’s “The Arctic Grail – The Quest For The Northwest Passage And The Northwest Passage and the North Pole. Perhaps it awaited me in Ft. Mac with Franklin Ave. as a main drag. A wonderful account.
Kudos of highest value as well to “Firewater – How Alcohol is Killing My People and Yours” by Harold Johnson. Johnson is from the Montreal Lake Cree Reserve and left resource extraction jobs to obtain a law degree at U of S and a Masters in Law from Harvard. He is now a Crown Prosecutor in northern Sask. He may have broken open a discussion that people have been loathe to broach. It is being well received.
Thanks for your indulgence.
I’ll also
Don’t nobilize a man who lies. — Garth
Your right but I try to stay positive. I was for Dr. Ben Carson. But he was to intelligent and had to much class to get down in the mud with the rest of the losers.
Maybe Trump is there for 4 years to do the dirty work and then we get a real President. That would make Trump ok.
Errors above due to typing on the iPad since the Dell has not thawed after the recent -40 spell.
I’ve been studying ‘the rate of expected inflation’ lately and I did not really get it until now… ” the balance of power has shifted… to the voters they answer to.”
Trump has quantified a power like expectation and has made it very clear that confidence in the Decision Makers must be a factual and have some sort of foundation. Or else it is all just speculation. Thx for clearing that up for me Garth.
#66 common sense on 03.24.17 at 8:55 pm
#52 Joseph R.
Thanks but not only WTI went up, so did BRENT (European) as well which would not be impacted by Keystone ????
————————————————-
Both of them can rise with the same news as oil is a fungible good. I would keep an eye on not just on the price of Brent but also on the WTI/Brent spread to prove if the Keystone XL decision had an impact or not.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/brent_wti_spread
Best post to date. President Biff and his supporters need to face facts. Pray for impeachment.
The go go dancers hit the stage at Seneca. I’m to hammered to visualize a fanticy.
Secret to a successful marriage. Booze.
Good night dogs.
Deplorable as Trump’s character is, I’d rather have him as leader of my country than The Boy Wonder.
Trump is not just a reality-TV star, he is one of the most successful businessmen in the world. He is rude, ruthless, yes, but he understands business, economics, trade. He understands how outsourcing has ripped apart the middle class in the US (and Canada), sending jobs to Mexico, China, India and other places. He stands for the rule of law and defending his country’s borders. He puts his own country first.
On the other hand, the Boy Wonder doesn’t have a clue about anything related to business or the economy. Everything the Boy Wonder does seems to reflect a
“Canada Last” policy: recklessly inflating the national deficit and debt, and pissing it away on small vote-buying projects. Seeming to be hell-bent on signing any and every trade deal regardless of how it affects the average Joe-Bag-Of-Donuts who lost his job to outsourcing. Since the Boy Wonder took office, the Canadian dollar has crashed to .75, houses in every major city have become even more out of reach for the average worker, jobs are stagnant, most new jobs are in the $10.50 to $15.00/hr range, with few benefits or long-term prospects. Our main industry now seems to be immigration, home building and flipping, and the service sector.
The Boy Wonder broke his promise about electoral reform, one of the biggest election fraud lies in recent memory. He’s also in favour of Keystone XL and other pipelines, so he is not an enviro, just makes good speeches pretending he is, so he can get elected.
I’d rather have Trumps in-your-face politically-incorrectness, than the Boy Wonder’s two-faced lies and his Canada-Last, globalist, give-the-Chinese-everything-they want economic policies. Hoohaa.
@MF
Besides, Obama faced lots of opposition during his presidency from a divided congress, but when Obama faced any opposition, it was labeled “politics” or partisanship. When Trump faces opposition, it’s his fault. His personality flaws. The republicans control congress so they will pass the health care reform bill. It’s just a matter of time.
—–
Every time you mention O you make it very negative or some conspiracy members lo es him spin to, not that I am O fan but your comments are as trump would say “very sad” . but thats ok I am us to it.
Let me tell you what O did for some country, he meet last September with
nutandyahoo and made sure that that country will get 38 billion in military aid, that tell a lot about O, not bad guy at all.
Just for a moment think waht would rus and syr ia do to that country if they get their way…
My English is bad but this giberish is entirely SwiftKey fault.
#79 NS Guy
Thank you. Could have used more references to Gerald Butts, but otherwise sums up my feelings on the matter perfectly.
I hear all the snowflakes in the US whining about Trump and how they want to move to Canada. I’d switch places with them in a heartbeat – if only a citizenship swap as possible.
I sold out 100% of my US positions, and 95% of my CAD positions the first week of March. It’s fun to watch as this market ever so s-l-o-w-l-y rolls over onto it’s back.
I’ll be buying back into my same positions once my price targets are reached.
Rollover baby!! Daddy needs a 10% (or more?) discount on his shares! lol
Your strategy is why 90% of DIY investors fail. — Garth
………………
ONE study that shows market timing works, long term. Asking for one
have you ever wondered why a guy like Warren Buffet is always in the market (does change % of cash position)? do you think you’re smarter than him? more polished as an investor?
anyway, looking forward to the study . Thanks
#49 Brian
CIBC
Garth, Are you lightening up USA and adding to Emerging and Canadian Markets to rebalance with the 10% Trump Dip looming? If you actually do think it is going to happen do you act or stay the course?
No change, of course. — Garth
You sold all your positions hoping for a 10% correction? That is hilarious. You sound like a rookie investor. After you pay capital gains taxes you will end up with a smaller position even if you get the 10% correction. Most rookies like you won’t have the balls to buy back in after a 10% correction because you will be scared it will go lower. Then it rebounds and you miss the correction, plus pay all the taxes, then buy back in with significantly less capital at the same price you sold of higher. Exactly how not to invest.
I have always been surprised by how puritanical Canadian society has seemed to been. How is it that nobody is speaking about whether it’s morally wrong to have our housing be the next Swiss banking? It is not declared or reported to any country, so anybody can stash their cash here. Hypocrisy is the anglo national sport. Until one day things get real…
To all the drunk blogdogs:
I say good night.
And to Smoking Man:
Thank god you’re back.
#11 Doug t on 03.24.17 at 6:37 pm
Got a 200k GIC 2.2% interest (woohoo) for a year – zero risk – sleepin like a baby
Inflation is 2%. You are making nothing. — Garth
——-
Plus you cant touch your money for 3 yrs. Brilliant dude.
Garth, trump pulled a genius move today. He let the dems own obamacare forever and the GOP own the failed repeal legislation and he is free and clear of the debacle.
GOP had 7 yrs to have vote ready legislation on tap and they dropped the ball big time. Ryan is now toast which is good. Trump lives to fight another day.
SM is right, he needs to only pass 1 piece of legislation. A tax/regulatory/infrastructure bill.
His party repudiated his bill and you call it a ‘genius move.’ You Trumpaholics are a riot. — Garth
From a historical perspective, 2017 has technical similarities to 1995 and 1954. I think we get a 20%+ move in the S&P500 this year. The Nasdaq is already fast out of the gate with a 10% YTD gain. This is not bearish market action folks…
Last night on Fox they said that they needed the savings from repeal and replace, to fund tax cuts. I lost my job in the US in early 2016 and was faced with using Obama care. I found a plan I could afford but all the in network doctors were in Alaska. Just kidding, they were in Guam. In the end my wife and I decided to come home, and I spent today at Whistler. Fortunately, healthcare was the least of my worries. If Trump is smart he’ll offer a single payer system, and get moderate Republicans and Democrats on side. Screw the Freedom caucus. There is no way to fix the health system as is. There are to many vested interests in keeping the cash cow going. He needs to be a leader and putting lipstick on a pig doesn’t cut it.
Garth, Garth, you are so predictable, dude!
After Trump lost the vote today, while stuck in traffic I mentioned to the wife that the greater fool blogger today might be gloating.
I snorted out a mouthful of beer when I read today’s blog!
Just a suggestion but why not mix it up a little, keep us on edge. Hillary Clinton told us politicians have a public and private face, and as an ex-politician, you would know that.
Then, come out and shock us and say you support Trump.
I mean, what, difference, at this point, does it make where Clinton or Trump won. It’s obvious Putin runs the US.
And the Chinese are pissed at a report from an anonymous source on CNN that says the US will redeem Treasury bills held by China by making payments in Rubles!
Dude, you can’t make this stuff up.
But seriously, let your hair down a bit, have some fun with your audience. Maybe managing the blog will be more fun.
Just kidding though. Luv ya the way you are! Don’t change a thing, ok? Promise? Pinky promise?
AB Boxster on 03.24.17 at 6:51 pm
Trump may not have been able to replace Obamacare, yet.
The house republicans decided not to get behind the bill created by Ryan, and so Obamacare stays.
And if the deductibles continue to rise, or the coverage gets worse, or it becomes too costly to actually use, then Trump will not wear this.
The democrats will for the original policy.
The GOP will, for failing to replace it, as well they should.
Trump will just turn his attention to something else.
And if the GOP continues to block him, them the people get to decide on whether they want to support a president, whose policies that they agree with, or the house and senate GOP members, that are as obstructive to change as are the democrats.
US politics is quite a mess.
Trump is not the cause of this.
But his policies may certainly show the American people that nothing will ever get done by their elected representatives, that have been bought and sold by special interests groups and corporate America.
So far it is obvious neither the republicans or the democrats have any interest in providing value to the American citizenry.
Not something that can be blamed on Trump.
——————————————–
Im glad some can see threw the horrible and very obvious anti trump propaganda via elite owed media. Trump cares about his country and exposing the criminal elite . I wonder how many of the same Republicans who voted against Obama care voted against to repel it? Just to spite Trump and defame him . How everyone cant see this is scary
#79 NS Guy on 03.24.17 at 10:06 pm
Deplorable as Trump’s character is, I’d rather have him as leader of my country than The Boy Wonder.
Trump is not just a reality-TV star, he is one of the most successful businessmen in the world. He is rude, ruthless, yes, but he understands business, economics, trade. He understands how outsourcing has ripped apart the middle class in the US (and Canada), sending jobs to Mexico, China, India and other places. He stands for the rule of law and defending his country’s borders. He puts his own country first.
—
I think you need a new hobby.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_and_Affordable_Care_Act
Interesting final vote
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2010/roll165.xml
Lol….not one reb and even 26 dem voted no on the final Obama care vote. Proof trump works for the people and the crooked politicians work gir special interest groups ….democracy lol
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/house-buyer-beware-landmark-b-c-court-ruling-will-shake-real-estate-industry Government is finally doing the job they get paid to do . It’s about time.
The preamble, a lesson in history:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives#/media/File:Combined–Control_of_the_U.S._House_of_Representatives_-_Control_of_the_U.S._Senate.png
When Nixon was impeached, he faced a majority Democrat Senate and congress and the Dems, as one can see with the link, were in power for a long time so there was major Democrat influence in Washington.
This has shifted with Trump, now ruling over a Republican Senate and Congress so things are going their way. Remember a little while back all 48 U.S. attorneys being fired on a Friday? Jeff Sessions alone now is the ultimate authority on which cases see the light of day going forward across the U.S. . These cases range wide from Fox News CEO’s rape charges to Russian money laundering charges against Deutsche bank (Trump’s largest lender) and the list goes on. Where are Trump’s attorney appointments? Not happening until Sessions weeds out any cases that can damage the Republican brand including Trump. Democrat U.S. Senators are telling Sessions to recuse himself of any cases that can lead back to Trump and it means nothing because they have no power.
Congress investigations into Trump/Russian collusion are being skidded visibly by Republican led Nunes so much so that Republican Senators John Mccain and Lindsey Graham are calling for an independent congressional investigation. Its getting weird out there. Lets get into just how weird.
Rachel Maddow has been beating Fox news for viewer ratings in the coveted age 26 to 54 market for the last 10 days or so, or, until she came up with a 2 page Trump tax return and got ridiculed for it (obvious bait and she took it, cost her) but, there’s a reason why viewers tuned in. Why? Check this out. This is stuff that you didn’t hear in today’s news cycle but will likely on the weekend as main media follows up:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VeZmFCmUuFc
Flynn is getting thrown under the bus. Ex CIA director Jim Woosley worked for the Trump campaign until the first week of January and suddenly quit. No one knew why. Now Woosley is saying this:
http://www.wsj.com/video/wsj-exclusive-ex-cia-head-woolsey-on-flynn-covert-plan/1A0EF9E8-2FAA-45BC-954E-0355E12263CD.html?mod=trending_now_video_1
It took Woosley 9 months to talk about a plan between Flynn and the Turks to extradite a former Turkish president back to Turkey to face punishment from Turkey’s latest dictator. Why now? He knows Flynn was acting as a foreign agent meaning any conversations Flynn had with anyone could be used as evidence in the court of law. Normally U.S. citizens are protected under FISA warrants and other forms of surveillance. Not Michael Flynn, not the moment it became known Flynn took over a half mil to lobby for the Turkish dictator/president last year.
Heads and former heads in Washington are talking to cover their asses. WH staffers are deleting their texts even though they have been told not to, at least, according to CNN. Suddenly, Washington is waking up to the reality that Flynn, Manafort, Page and Roger Stone are or were working as foreign agents whether legally declared or not and all of their conversations caught on surveillance can be used now in the court of law. How far does it extend? Wilbur Ross? Trump’s own son? We don’t know.
So lets think about that. Why were public congressional hearings planned next week now closed to the public? Think about what any lies caught in a public forum would do to the Republican brand and here we have Manafort, Page and Stone now fighting for their freedom.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Manafort
A story that broke out this week on Manafort was not just that he is now being investigated by four different U.S. intelligence agencies but that Manafort worked for a Russian Oligarch from 2005 to 2009 at the very earliest for $10 million dollar annual retainers to push a Pro Putin agenda in the U.S. and elsewhere around the world. We don’t know for sure if those payments ever stopped. And that’s funny, where’s the money? Doesn’t seem to show up on the books. Certainly, working for this guy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych
Ukraine’s president turned pro Putin president responsible for 5 months of Ukrainian protests against him until Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 leading to war that is going on to this day… working for this Pro Putin, anti NATO Ukrainian president is the same thing as working for Putin himself. Manafort was paid 12.7 mil according to Yanukovich over 4 years and the day the news broke, Manafort’s job as Trump campaign chairman was done. So… where’s the money?
Meanwhile:
http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/24/europe/dead-russians/index.html
Those Russian hits on anyone anti Putin just keep on coming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Htp-98zxbVc
So here we have it. 3 Republican branches of government. A dead health care bill. A dead budget bill. A fast becoming lame duck president embroiled in scandal. Polls with Trump at 37% approval and the trend is down. There could be an “I feel sorry for Trump” uptick, a predictable dead cat bounce. Credibility shot. Their hail Mary now is corporate tax cuts and how will that play out? How will they make up for this drop in revenue? 25% tariffs on imports jacking inflation and thus, interest rates driving the indebted to bankruptcy world wide? Trade wars? Are they nuts? They are if they think these distractions will actually work.
Trump is behaving just like someone who did and said anything he could to get elected with a plan to do nothing more than steal in any way shape or form whether its through deregulation, wide scale corruption, tax cuts, the sky is the limit. The thing is, all of these other things need to be done in the Whitehouse. All of these other responsibilities need to be met as the nation doesn’t run itself in this increasingly small world and instead of making an effort to do so, its 4 a.m. tweets against the black guy. Why not, its the same black guy Trump claimed had no birth certificate so why not pile on.
To anyone with a brain, it really does come across as talking to an empty gin bottle and so it should. Trump is coming across as a bloated hubris untouchable billionaire who can do and say whatever he wants and get away with it. Grab ’em by the pussy. Lock her up. I love WikiLeaks. Russia, are you listening. Muslims are terrorists. Mexicans are rapists and murderers. It must be so since Trump is a successful businessman. Should anyone be surprised how this ends? After all… Trump really is a demagogue:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demagogue
A paradigm defined as reality or best described by those cerebral Greeks in the old days, “the truth alongside lies to the open shame of many”.
In the meantime…
http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/24/news/russia-money-laundering-global-banks/index.html
“His party repudiated his bill and you call it a ‘genius move.’ You Trumpaholics are a riot. — Garth”
Not a genius move but could anybody have expected that to go forward just like that? I am surprised only one thing repudiated so far. And he’s got almost 4 more years. This is a very early administration. Ivanka will probably draft the final version.
Will she create something better, like the Canadian system? Don’t know. We will have to watch and see.
The one thing I am most interested in with this Trump administration is to see not now, but 2 years from now, who he is surrounded by and what they do. Ivanka is probably smarter than you think. Lots of people thing pretty means stupid but there is no correlation there.
Thing = think. typo.
A million dollars won’t buy you a loaf of bread -there won’t be any.
But for now, eat drink party -it’s all good -while there’s still food.
Yes, surprises like the big drop in bond yields about 20 to 25 basis points just around what the so called FED raised just recently.
Interest rates will start falling over the next 12 months to new lows. Everyone is wrong again about interest rates going up.
A recession is coming soon, it has been almost 10 years now, get ready.
Real estate will remain buoyant over the next two years then go into steep descent over the following four years.
#11 Doug t
Don’t forget to pay taxes on that GIC income…
“We are cautiously optimistic that 2017 will be better in most respects, although we must acknowledge that the range of possible longer-term outcomes has widened in the wake of the US election.” — Stephen Poloz, Mar. 23, 2017
Contrary to what the financial media would lead one to believe, the “Trump” rally is not fading. We’re simply seeing a moderate mean reversion of the dramatic outperformance of particular sectors (financials, transports, energy, basic materials) since the election. The process has been telling. Tech, having performed the poorest immediately post election has now resumed the lead while energy and basic materials have resumed their last place positions. What’s particularly interesting is that semiconductors have become a leading subsector. The tone of the market at this juncture is similar to the 1990s with tech firmly back in the lead and other leading sectors continuing to hold their uptrends while the worst performing sectors have continued their underperformance.
The “inflationary” theme was largely overdone in the recent rally. With prior growth sectors resuming leadership its likely that the rally will continue in its pre election (ie 2013) form. This is good for $US and US equities generally but bad for commodities, $CAD and the TSX.
Simply being covered for health insurance is not a good measure of the effectiveness of the health care system. Just look at Canada.
The US should be doubling down on free market health care, as that’s what drives improvements in treatments and outcomes for patients.
Oh well, it’s too late now. Once an entitlement program is in place, it just grows and grows, and is never cancelled.
Re: #97
Hey, thanks for posting that link. Interesting read, sounds like CRA is starting to get serious.
In my book, the only reason to hold a GIC is if it short term (1 year) and as an alternative to liquid cash. That’s it. It is a useless product invented so banks will make profits with your money. I have at all times 400K in cash including 200K in 2 GICs (1 year short term with each ending 6 months apart).
But this is not part of my 7 figure portfolio.
I don’t know why would anyone sell all his US and CDN positions right now unless there will be WW3 tomorrow ? And even then, history tells us that it is not the right thing to do.
If you are getting out of the market right now like a lot of people did in october of last year, you will miss any spikes in the markets when you were out of it and it is those 10 or 12 spikes in a year which are responsible for your overall return in the long term. Miss them and your performance will be subpar. In order to not miss them you have to stay in the market no matter what happens.
If you are in for the short term, you are a speculator and not an investor.
I do believe in ‘America’ and in our economy and as well in emerging and international markets that’s why I am all over the place with 65-70% in equities at all times no matter what happens.
#90 not 1st on 03.24.17 at 11:16 pm
His party repudiated his bill and you call it a ‘genius move.’ You Trumpaholics are a riot. — Garth
**********************************************
The replacement legislation was better, but still crap, and doomed to fail. Why would Trump want his name connected with something that’s still gonna be crap and fail? I agree things are playing out perfectly for HIM, and nobody else really. He has shown his supporters that he tried to get rid of Obamacare, the Swamp (both dems and repubs) stood in his way, and he’s gonna let Obamacare continue and collapse on his own (which it will).
Trump is much more powerful than people think. To call him a lame duck President is naive.
It amazes me how many people I talk to that are worried about their elementary school children not being able to afford a house. Those children won’t be buying a house for at least 20 years. They think there will never be a correction and prices will just keep going higher. It just boggles my mind. It’s like they don’t envision interest rates rising during this time or a recession taking down housing. They obviously don’t think their kids with be able to afford which should reinforce to them that a correction is necessary.
Instead one couple I know doubled down and got their house appraised at this bubble price and are investing the money into 2 rental properties in an effort to have the funds down the road to help their kids purchase.
Trump’s going to need to learn to work with people or he’s finished. He’ll end up like Fordsie in Toronto, isolated, in conflict with everyone and completely non-functional as a leader.
If Trump wants to be a dictator he needs to study dictators. They never act alone. They have a large, core group of supporters who act to influence everyone else and maintain their grip on power.
He can’t just sit in his office, connected to no one, and say “I am the president, do what I say”. It is laughable. I hear he doesn’t like to read. Maybe he should start. Read some world history. It would help him a lot.
#104 willworkforpickles on 03.25.17 at 6:33 am
“Real estate will remain buoyant over the next two years then go into steep descent over the following four years.”
——————————————————————–
You forgot to add:
The sun will rise and set everyday, there will be some sunny days, some cloudy days, some rainy days, some cold days, some warm days, some good days, some bad days.
That would round out the stupid vagueness of your useless housing market forecast.
What a marooooon!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxGgnI6kCrs
Doug T. 2.2% GIC rate okay for short term money 2 to 3 years.
All this criticizing by others of GIC’s and other fixed income like government bonds has been always been going on. It is over extended and exaggerated. Here is why.
I was told the same thing all my life and how you can’t touch your money, it is locked in. I don’t want to touch my money. I want my money to make other money.
This is why I saved it, put it in RRSP’s for 25+ years and got the annual tax deduction and reinvested that too.
If I wanted to touch my money I would of already spent it or done something us with it and just blow it away.
I was told the same thing, don’t lock in my $800,000 RRIF in long term government bonds at 4.8% to 5.1% back in 2009.
The $39,000 to $40,000 a year in interest is more than double what interest rates on longer term GIC’s and 50% higher interest compared to similar long term bonds.
The tax excuse brought up too and is way off base, my first $17,000 a year in tax free which is my C.P.P, OAS income and after that my total on the next $40,000 income is $9,800.
My $62,000 TFSA is earning another $4,000 a year long term compound interest so on my total $61,000 a year income I’m paying $9,800 annual income taxes or a 16.06% total yearly income tax rate. This leaves me with almost 84% and around 45% net left over or about $27,500 a year after paying income taxes, living expenses.
I keep hearing and seeing illustrations from financial people and videos the whole interest income being taxed at 40%, 50% tax rates is false. Most people will not pay anything close to that in their lifetime.
Most importantly, $0 debt, no mortgage, no credit cards, no car loans, no reverse mortgage, no lines of credit, no installment loans, nothing.
Being debt free and not having a growing debt is already half the of the equation to being financially successful, especially in retirement.
A free and clear modest $350,000 home and 3 year old car. Property taxes, utilities and expenses, costs are modest annually.
Debt and growing debt is what is going to be the main problem for retirees with them growing and being in debt like never before.
Ditch your crystal balls about where the markets are likely to go next and cast your eyes towards the great province of Newfoundland. The codfish have returned. If that isn’t a sign I don’t know what is…
#106 Cautious Optimism on 03.25.17 at 7:05 am
Same thing that idiot has been saying forever for “justification” to keep emergency interest rates 8 years after the emergency.
MF
You’re preaching to the choir, friend.
Just a minor point: Congress consists of the House and Senate.
#89
I don’t need to
#44 gic 2.2? on 03.24.17 at 8:12 pm
Garth is it wise for someone just about to retire to keep a few hundred k in cash incase the stock market crashes so they don’t have to eat dog food?
///////////////////////////
That’s my plan. I will keep cash equivalent of three years spending money, in a pinch will be able to stretch it out to four .
So if the market tanks I won’t have to cash out at a bad time. Also my only exposure to bonds will be, for the time being, 20% in rate reset preferreds.
#98 Crazyfox on 03.25.17 at 1:35 am
Try getting your information from somewhere other than Wikipedia, CNN and WSJ.
Wikipedia info is not a reliable source as it is not always correct or complete (because it can be written by anyone). CNN leans more left than the tower of Pisa and the WSJ is part of the fake MSM.
The truth is out there somewhere but in today’s day and age, it’s like finding a needle in a haystack. Everyone has an agenda.
The problem today is that the truth
The disconnect: look at the inside of this house – does it appear millionaires are living there?
And what happened to staging? Not needed in this market.
The Pitbull crew is unleashed after last week.
Just. buya. da. house.
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17925033/59-FULLER-Avenue-Toronto-Ontario-M6R2C4-Roncesvalles
@#100 NonPlussed = Minus
“The one thing I am most interested in with this Trump administration is to see not now, but 2 years from now, who he is surrounded by and what they do. Ivanka is probably smarter than you think. Lots of people thing pretty means stupid but there is no correlation there.”
********************************************
Great. So now all the Trumpsters are pinning their hopes on the 30 year old daughter of the Presidents second marriage……..
Soap Operas couldnt think this crap up…..
Real estate will remain buoyant over the next two years then go into steep descent over the following four years
Two year predictions are the new wrong
They’ve been wrong about Toronto real estate since the turn of the century
Lol
Lots of people thing pretty means stupid but there is no correlation there.
This is false. The correlation has been widely known to go the other way.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-scientific-fundamentalist/200903/beautiful-people-are-more-intelligent-i
Crazy Brits
Millions of deplorables
reality TV star misogynist billionaire
populist
lame duck
his Muslim travel ban
ridiculed and killed
unpredictable tangle of ego, bravado and well-aged testosterone
calls into question the man’s status as a grand deal-maker
Financial analysis mixed with tabloid vocabulary does not add up to any credibility.
Now, which one of those awful words hurt you? — Garth
“The ruling targets a weakness in Canadian laws that often leads foreign owners of real estate in cites such as Metro Vancouver and Toronto to claim they are “residents of Canada for tax purposes” when they are not.”
“The landmark B.C. decision requires notary public Tony Liu to pay his client more than $600,000 because Liu failed to adequately determine whether the Vancouver house his client was buying for $5.5 million had been owned by a tax resident of Canada.”
Source: http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/house-buyer-beware-landmark-b-c-court-ruling-will-shake-real-estate-industry
123.….follow the cycle- don’t predict.
104….this message board is already rife with boring details to which I could bury you with… The amount of knowledge you posses I could likely clip off the the corner of a pinky fingernail judging by your inane response.
D-Bum 113….
#120 Trojan House on 03.25.17 at 11:57 am
The truth is out there man. I spent 5 minutes on an internet search last night on Manafort. Not 50 or 15, 5 and I saved 3 links last night for today. Notice the dates on the links, this one in August:
https://trofire.com/2016/08/15/trump-campaign-manager-paul-manafort-serious-ties-russia-surprised-appalled/
This next one in April:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/apr/27/paul-manafort-donald-trump-campaign-past-clients
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/28/ttrump-hires-reagan-ford-delegate-manager-to-stave-off-establishment-convention-hopes/
And what you will read from rightful criticism to fluff, is that there is detailed info on him and so there should be. Manafort worked as a delegate manager for 4 U.S. presidencies: Ford, Reagan, G.W. Bush and Trump and his lobby ties alone beg for a high budget Hollywood flick. It explains a lot. Ferdinand’s exhile to Hawaii for example. Or hundreds of millions of congress approved money to support this guy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonas_Savimbi
All along the trail of Manafort’s life is money laundering for dictators who have plundered their nations for billions so you just had to know Manafort was on a collision course with Russian oligarchs and Putin. If he wasn’t helping dictators launder their money, he was helping them to get elected so they could set up shop.
The question begs to be asked, who’s next to get thrown under the bus? Flynn is the obvious choice. Manafort and Stone are more difficult because they are so connected to Republicans and go back with Trump since the 80’s but they will likely as well and, its expected. Nixon did the same thing but I digress.
The reason why I use wiki so much is because the wealth of information is about as impartial as you can find and well referenced regardless of partisan criticisms. It never used to be but over the last 15 years, wiki has upped their game… so I won’t stop using them and nor should I. As for the media they all target their bias to their viewers, they know where their base is and ratings come from and the proof is in their pudding. Its next to impossible to use Fox news. So for mainstream, where do you go? CNN, the Washington Post, the NY times, Time magazine, The Guardian, just go down the list of media barred from Spicer press conferences, its easy. The WSJ & CNBC are too tilted towards money and money is blinding so politically, its hard to use them (used WSJ last night though).
As an example, Trump tax cuts… that’s great! Yeah, yeah, vote for Trump! Lets pump Trump! But wait, htf do you pay for that exactly? Tariffs on imports? Trade wars? What, high inflation and high rates that follow are coming? With a world drowning in debt? Everyone wants tax cuts right, easy sell. But how do you make up for lost tax revenue? Maybe, just maybe, the status quo ain’t so bad at least, for now… especially with an illegitimate WH. Nice day out there. Whatever else I can add can likely be summed up from the 49 minute mark on:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yz4aOAmq2JU
‘ He stands for the rule of law ‘
I guess we will find out eh?
my impression of him is that its fine for us but he is too big and ‘important’ to be bothered with petty rules of law… like paying his illegal polish workers for instance. a real stand up guy.
To Penny Henny, besides having some savings in short term money, I have at least 5 to 6 months of income maturing every year from staggered strip bonds. In my case that is $25,000 to $30,000 in present dollars.
For example, between 2018 to 2048 it starts out at $25,000 and ends at $90,000.
Hello,
In a previous blog Garth mentioned holding more aggressive ETFs in out TFSAs. Garth mentioned, for example an Emerging Market ETF.
Can someone steer me to a website or blog with a recommended portfolio of about 5 ETFs for a TFSA, that is weighted for growth?
Thankyou
So the stock markets could take a 10% dip? Great, that could present a buying opportunity! As I’ve said so many times before, it makes sense to invest like a governor that gives the engine more fuel/air mixture when the speed drops. Bring it on!
#34 BobC on 03.24.17 at 7:49 pm
Trump brings the out of control corruption of the U.S.
——————————————————————-
Wonder why Congress is fighting back…
Well, he proposed a constitutional amendment that would create term limits for members of Congress—a change that would disqualify almost half of those who are currently serving.
He also wanted to set a three-term (six-year) cap for House members and a two-term (12-year) cap for senators.
Just think of the gravy train with term limits. Yes, Congress was suppose to represent the people but it’s already corrupted. Not missing much from this RyanCare or Obamacare Lite anyways.
Trumpcare (aka as Rinocare) died a proper death. It was nothing but warmed over Obamacare, and its only purpose was to allow the Trumpster to claim victory. Trumpcare did nothing to free up health markets and create efficiencies. It was just more rearranging of deck chairs on the healthcare Titanic.
This also proves another important principle of bloated Government: Once you start a new handout (aka as “program”) it can never be discontinued because those on the receiving end squeal as do the Crony Capitalists that benefit. It continues until, as Margaret Thatcher said, we run out of other people’s money. That’s why all the developed economies in the world are on an eventual road to ruin.
That isn’t to say of course that we can’t money in the meantime through shrewd investing…
#130 Crazyfox on 03.25.17 at 1:47 pm
Dude, are you saying that you found the truth by spending 5 minutes on an internet search??? By watching a few Youtube videos? Lol
Are you also saying that you get your news from CNN, WaPo, NY Times, Time Magazine and The Guardian??? After you concede the fact they have their biases?
Funny that the US Congressmen and Senators have their own special Healthcare, unlike the masses including the deplorables, middle class, poor, homeless, single parents, etc. If they wanted to do it right and prove we are equal- they would provide “their” healthcare to ALL in the states!!!
I wonder what ex pols in Canada have….
Very helpful post. Thanks.
@ #134 Doug in Auckland, not London on 03.25.17 at 4:49 pm
Always smart to have some powder for when the market goes south. I think this year is going to be an excellent buying year.