What could go wrong?

If you’ve never heard of recency bias, time to learn.

It’s simple. Makes people behave like dogs. It’s the expectation what just happened will continue to occur because, well, it just happened. This goes to memory. Since we recall recent events far better than past ones, they have more weight. Recency bias leads zillions of investors over the edge, since they expect stock markets that have gone up recently to go up forever, or falling assets to hit zero.

Ditto for houses. Even more so, actually, since real estate’s the very reason most Canadians exist. When property values rise, we anticipate more increases. When they erupt, we expect an endless boom. Recency bias is a dangerous thing as it crowds out logic, analysis or risk management – a daily event in hyperventilating places like the godless GTA.

We have stats to prove it.

Each week my pal Nik Nanos does a poll for Bloomberg on how Canadians feel about things. They’re shrugging off mounting risks and warnings about real estate and, in the wake of January’s epic 23% year/year Toronto price gain, doubling down on inflated houses. No matter that BMO now calls it a bubble, that Trump could easily blow things up (see below), that the odds of higher rates are rising, that affordabililty is plunging or governments  seriously considering more market-dousing actions, we’re horny, baby!

The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index has wobbled higher with just 10% now believing house prices could fall (the lowest level in three years) and the proportion of RE bulls climbing to almost 42%. This is even more interesting since a majority think their personal finances suck. A year ago 15% said they were worse off than twelve months earlier, now that’s almost doubled to 28%.

Why the discrepancy?

Yup, recency bias. The belief that what you see is what you’ll get. Logic tells us no asset class can rise at ten times the rate of inflation, be completely detached from economic fundamentals or so dramatically leveraged to a rising mountain of debt, but this is not about rationality. It’s all emotion. Expectation is running rampant. The last time the scent was this strong was 2000, and it smelled like Nortel.

What about stock markets and other financial assets? Aren’t they rising as dangerously, based on the sheer investor euphoria? Maybe. Or not. It’s important to remember people don’t buy mutual funds or ETFs with 95% financing, which would make any large downturn a lot less consequential. Equity values are also based on corporate earnings, not just hormones, providing some measureable metrics (unlike a $1.5 million semi in Toronto).

Having said that, look at this…

Tomorrow (Tuesday) the Trumpster gives a speech to Congress which has all the import of a year-end State of the Union address, and the potential impact of a federal budget. Since his election last November, markets have viewed this wacky guy as a pro-business pumper with a cabinet stuffed with billionaire buddies who’ll do whatever it takes to goose profits and make capitalism great again. The expectation of a corporate tax cut plus relaxed regulations and fatter bottom lines is rampant. He’d better deliver.

Since the November 8th vote stocks have shot up 10% with 17 record closes, making investors about $2.8 trillion wealthier. Yes, the economy’s been a good performer (great job creation numbers, for example, and rebounding corporate profits), but a big part of this surge has been Trumpism – the gamble that he’ll actually come through with the pro-business agenda. That has also boosted the US dollar while depressing bond prices and inflating yields. This has also boosted the odds of a Fed rate hike in March to 40%, and to over 70% by later in the year.

If Trump unveils a plan, there’ll be a large reaction. Volatility could spike from current low levels and equities pop. If he doesn’t have one and spends an hour talking about fake news, spend the day with your dog instead of watching BNN (which is always a bad idea, anyway). If the plan’s tepid, same result. Be very thankful your portfolio is balanced.

The message today is simple. You have no idea what’s coming. Unpredictability is rampant. Donald Trump is its face. If you put all your eggs in one basket – whether a mess of stocks or a McMansion worth millions – be prepared to learn what just happened probably means nothing. Your dog knows.

100 comments ↓

#1 Randy on 02.27.17 at 5:17 pm

It’s never as good as you would have hoped for.

#2 Alice on 02.27.17 at 5:21 pm

Top accounting firm predicts Canada Will Drop Out Of Top 20 Economies, US To Fall To 3rd. Glorious time to be Canadian.

https://betterdwelling.com/pwc-canada-to-drop-out-of-top-20-economies-us-to-fall-to-3rd/

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.27.17 at 5:21 pm

Be interesting to see how many standing ovations Trump gets tomorrow if he talks about tax breaks and military spending.
Congress usually stands up and claps or sits on command so this one may be for the record books…….

If he veers off into “fake news” and “The Wall” it could be crickets instead of cheers……..

#4 Brian on 02.27.17 at 5:29 pm

I think globalization is a gamechanger for CDN RE. Looking back at what happened in the 80s is no indicator how things will turn out.

#5 conan on 02.27.17 at 5:31 pm

Everyone duck for the Donald’s big speech.
Maybe he has a cunning plan to recoup the 16 trillion spent in the Middle East?

Trump = Maximus solveris tormento

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I88WW2xDlAc

#6 John on 02.27.17 at 5:41 pm

It’s over, when the USA government hits the debt ceiling on the Ides of March, the 15th of March. At that point Trump and his WH budget office decide how to the cut the smaller pie. So he can blather all he wants in his speech; the rubber melts on the road, thanks to Obama’s debt ceiling formula, perfectly timed for the historic Ides of March. Then watch the unexpected to become the new normal. The Trumpster gets Trumped. We all pay.

#7 John on 02.27.17 at 5:45 pm

Oh, and Exxon is kissing off on anything feisty for our tar sands unless oil prices rises. Can’t make any profit. Our number 1 export? Pooched.

#8 John on 02.27.17 at 5:47 pm

Exxon fades the tar sands but T2 gonna rock new pipelines with more debt….. anyway!

#9 John on 02.27.17 at 5:52 pm

https://dailyreckoning.com/obama-tied-trumps-hands/

Read this. 17 days. Tic tic.

Rickards is a book shill. Zero creds. — Garth

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.27.17 at 5:54 pm

DELETED

#11 Happening now on 02.27.17 at 5:58 pm

I bet there’s no HAM in the Toronto housing marker. …just like YVR. ..nothing to see here

#12 good grief on 02.27.17 at 6:02 pm

”It’s over, when the USA government hits the debt ceiling on the Ides of March, the 15th of March.”

they sinply raise it. Debt ceiling? wait until his big govt infrastructure spending bill get passed……you ain’t seen nothing yet

#13 I'm NOT Poloz on 02.27.17 at 6:03 pm

Yippye! Our Loonie is back at the 75 cent range!

We need a pre-70 cent Loonie to boost exports! Poloz needs to cut interest rates to 0.00% to prevent mattress hoarding and money laundering which finances not only terrorist activities from a cave in Afghanistan, but it finances misogyny such as the Panama Papers.

Women in Canada deserve their fair share of the assets after a divorce notarization. Hiding and laundering your money offshore is illegal.

Canada is the greatest country in the world because we act to protect women interests. If it weren’t for KPMG encouraging old men to launder their money in offshore terrorist havens, they wouldn’t have been reported by a feminist who believes in equality.

We need a 60 cent Loonie this year! Try offshoring that! We need our Loonies in Canada, not outside of Canada.

If I were Prime Minister of Canada I would be a better feminist than Justin Trudeau. I will devalue the dollar to 1CENT so that none of these old men will be able to afford their offshore paradise.

#14 From the source on 02.27.17 at 6:17 pm

Instead of guessing, get the introduction to Trump’s economic, political views from the documentary, written, directed by Steve Bannon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3SLtP10NQ8

#15 Doug t on 02.27.17 at 6:28 pm

Expect the unexpected – plan accordingly.

#16 crdt on 02.27.17 at 6:40 pm

Here in beautiful snowy Langley BC the property next door was sold for $7 million to an Indian (over seas) investor. The investor assured the tenant that he is holding this property for development in the next few years, about 5 years from now. It was sold for $3 million about 3-4 years ago. There is so much money out there right now it boggles the mind. Wonder if he will be deemed brilliant or the greater fool in time..

#17 Ummmmm on 02.27.17 at 6:43 pm

The market has reacted to the great news of corporate tax cuts and pro business policies. The President has actually done what he promised..A FIRST in politics!!!

Give the man the credit he deserves! For all anti trumps…. walk the talk and donate 10% equity gains to charity or thank Trump!

#18 David P on 02.27.17 at 6:49 pm

Money keeps flowing to Canada, 8000 millionaires came here, that’s 8000 houses that were bought. There is no end to it, this is not mom and pop market anymore, we’re global

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-received-8000-millionaire-migrants-in-2016-study-182750432.html

#19 For those about to flop... on 02.27.17 at 6:57 pm

This one is not Pink Snow ,but it’s interesting nonetheless.

Someone on Vancouver Review bought this house to my attention.

It is in the much desired Point Grey neighborhood ,albeit on a busy street and although being assessed at 2.54 m has just had a 330k price reduction and a new MLS number and is now on for 1.668m.

Or 35% less than assessed…

M42BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2843-alma-street

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMDA4NA==

#20 Calvin on 02.27.17 at 7:16 pm

Last chance to send the Government a message.

​​​​​Read this news story by the CBC, I think it’s time to send them a message, our government. In Canada we have a majority government elected by a minority of voters. One of there main promises was to change the electoral system. Which they have now said they will not do……… because they will not get elected in the new system. The new system would give western Canada a voice, the election would not be decided before we even vote. The bottom link is the petition, have a look at it.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/electoral-reform-petition-online-1.3969098

This is a link to sign the petition.

https://petitions.parl.gc.ca/en/Petition/Details?Petition=e-616

….. forward this around to your friends, family and contacts please.

#21 Timmy on 02.27.17 at 7:26 pm

Bloomberg: Foreigners Housing Best Start with Banks Ca ada

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-27/foreigners-housing-bets-start-with-banks-canada-economy-watch

#22 Timmy on 02.27.17 at 7:27 pm

I agree with Buffet: the US economy will do just fine, despite the fact that they have an incompetent US President.

#23 905 on 02.27.17 at 7:59 pm

Garth, Vaughan/r hill/ Markham: prices exploding. It’s insane. Everything going 100s over ask.

If a correction is coming: we don’t see it

#24 technical analysis? on 02.27.17 at 8:08 pm

you don’t have to know what’s coming. just be able to react accordingly.

#25 Freedom First on 02.27.17 at 8:10 pm

#13 I’m NOT Poloz

Troll.

Go away. Far away. Far far away.

#26 Vancouver Review on 02.27.17 at 8:14 pm

Feb 27, 2017 Daily Video Review of Vancouver Real Estate Housing Bubble News https://youtu.be/wrF9iGfJcZM

#27 Smoking Man on 02.27.17 at 8:15 pm

The Universe not feeling right.

I’m not feeling right. Feel like my mind is being hit with a baseball bat , over and over again. I’m so weak I can’t stand up.

Been spending far to much time on line. Twitter,Facebook and all the other addictive websites I visit, Information over load. Burn out.

And know the shit going down in Antarctica.

I’m picking shit time to turn everything off and just chill for awhile. My brain needs a rest.

If I can…….not going to be easy.

#28 This Week in Money on 02.27.17 at 8:20 pm

Ross Kay on This Week in Money:
By the time the BC election rolls around, British Columbians will have lost $340 billion in home equity, a drop never seen before in North America. Meanwhile in Toronto……

http://www.howestreet.com/2017/02/25/this-week-in-money-93/

#29 Vanrentor on 02.27.17 at 8:47 pm

2017 Economic Headwinds: Housing Bubbles Popping up and Just Plain Popping Everywhere

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1488147891.php

#30 TrumpForTheAges on 02.27.17 at 8:48 pm

Rickards is a book shill. Zero creds. — Garth

That is probably true but there is an irrefutable fact that you seem to repeatedly dodge. The fact is American debt is growing faster than the economy by 2:1.

There is also zero evidence that US GDP growth is sustainably improving. In 2016 the GDP growth was worse than 2015, and 2015 was worse than 2014. With the threat of rising interest rates this becomes a ticking time bomb unless GDP growth can accelerate dramatically.

Do we really believe that Trump with is infrastructure spending, tax reforms and protectionist policies will dramatically alter these indisputable facts?

#31 MF on 02.27.17 at 8:51 pm

#25 Freedom First on 02.27.17 at 8:10 pm

I don’t mind this troll.

He’s being sarcastic and cynical.

Our also think our central banker is clueless (like the rest of them), and probably actually does want the CAD to be at .50 USD so the 1950’s economy he seems to think we have “improves”.

MF

#32 Smoking Man on 02.27.17 at 8:52 pm

One more thing before I shut everything down.

Garth you say you’re not really sure where things are going. Look at the Bond Yield Charts.

We now have a double batman, the second being lower. That is a huge bullish bond bet just waiting to get pillaged.

Bet Accordingly

Smokey out.

#33 Suede on 02.27.17 at 8:52 pm

Volatility has been super low contrary to everyone saying “there will be a lot of Volatility in the markets and world over the next while”

That’s like saying, this weekends weather will be cloudy with sunny breaks

No duh!

#34 MF on 02.27.17 at 8:52 pm

#22 Timmy on 02.27.17 at 7:27 pm

“I agree with Buffet: the US economy will do just fine, despite the fact that they had an incompetent US President for 8 years.”

/Fixed

#35 genbizx on 02.27.17 at 9:00 pm

greedy and borderline corrupt banks, greedy, cracker jack box real estaters, greedy residents, and yes…despite the confident conclusions that it isn’t foreign money (this within what is arguably a complete data clusterfunk and “oh shucks, how will i ever get away with lying and finding a way around canadian regulations” ) greedy non-residents = canada has already long ago seen it’s best days and 10 years from now people will start talking about how it all should have been handled.

#36 MF on 02.27.17 at 9:04 pm

#16 crdt on 02.27.17 at 6:40 pm

It’s because of this worldwide “accomodative” monetary policy.

Anyone has access to unlimited credit. The flip side of it all is asset bubbles galore and a ticking time bomb of debt on all levels. We all know it will collapse we just don’t know when. Safe to say any medium sized event will easily destabilize this system.

#5 conan on 02.27.17 at 5:31 pm

There is the counter argument that American/western involvement in the mid east has paid off.

Hint: When you go to the gas station do you worry about where the gas came from? How about how the food in your grocery store got there?

MF

#37 cecilhenry on 02.27.17 at 9:10 pm

#11:

This is a big part of the issue, despite the denials. IT always has been:

Immigration Drives Up Home Prices

Bloomberg: Why Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Could Sink U.S. Home Prices

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-22/why-trump-s-immigration-crackdown-could-sink-u-s-home-prices

President Donald Trump’s immigration policies threaten to crack a foundation of the American economy: the residential real estate market.

Even Bloomberg admits it, although their globalist conclusions as always, ignore half the issues, and all of the costs for Americans.

#38 it's different this time on 02.27.17 at 9:10 pm

it is different this time. i don’t want it to be. i loved toronto of the past, but it is now a global city. houses will be only for the wealthy.

#39 MF on 02.27.17 at 9:15 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/rrsp-rfsa-mortgage-retirement-pensions-1.3996098

-Tax-free saving schemes fail to prepare many for retirement: Don Pittis

Well of course.

After purchasing an overvalued 1.2 million dollar home on a $14/hour salary, no one has any money left over to save and no one trusts “the stock market”.

This author has some great articles for anyone who is listening. He’s often critical real estate, central bankers, T2.

Must have been a “glitch” no one noticed that allows his good articles to be published.

Probably is therefore the pariah of the CBC who eats lunch in the corner alone, never gets invited to drinks after work, and whose desk is in the basement facing a furnace.

MF

#40 jay on 02.27.17 at 9:19 pm

DELETED

#41 Figmund Sreud on 02.27.17 at 9:41 pm

There is little question that the Trump Bubble — rising stocks, higher treasury yields — has been driven first and primarily by expectations of significant cuts in tax rates and deregulation, … which is OK by me, since Trump’s tax plan will increase inequality by making the rich richer!

… and so, off to fetch pitchforksand scythes, you deplorables. Go!

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/76/Polish_scythemen_1863.PNG/250px-Polish_scythemen_1863.PNG

Anyway, … so you know:

Study: Tax Cuts for the Rich Don’t Spur Growth
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49059989

F.S. – Comox, BC.

#42 Smoking Man on 02.27.17 at 9:44 pm

Garth just so you know what you saw at Bellfountan Friday Feb 17 at around 8pm my return trip from Cuba.

https://www.youtube.com/shared?ci=lnCfdBP_qiU

I know your a logical guy. But man getting bad feeling about Antarctica.

Zumanga is really pissed that he’s going to lose France to La pen now and Wilder making Yuuge gains in socilist Denmark.

His one world govt dream is crumbling.

And eventually the bugger is going to figure out its me.or Ashman dad Issac will tell him. He can’t hurt me but the bugger can hurt my family.

I am a fellow ski pilot and his student at flying sauser school on Nictonite.

I may have to fire up the flier tonight and go save the world again. At leased it’s still summer in Antarctica.

SM = The real Super Man.

Hope this ain’t my last post, but someone needs to save you ungrateful bastards.

#43 cramar on 02.27.17 at 9:49 pm

“Since his election last November, markets have viewed this wacky guy as a pro-business pumper with a cabinet stuffed with billionaire buddies who’ll do whatever it takes to goose profits and make capitalism great again.”

—————–

Yup! Another one.

Billionaire Wilbur Ross confirmed as secretary of commerce

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/billionaire-wilbur-ross-confirmed-as-secretary-of-commerce-2017-02-27

#44 Spectacle on 02.27.17 at 10:03 pm

Freedom First on 02.27.17 at 8:10 pm
#13 I’m NOT Poloz

Troll.

Go away. Far away. Far far away.
——-
Oh wow. Freedom, I will so help you dig the hole on that one! How did it/she get past the Amazons on that trollst! Brutal. Suppose they/it/she also wants child sex rings next……… Far far away!

#45 Kelownawaiting on 02.27.17 at 10:27 pm

how do you decide which ETF or REIT to look at?
So many choices … the mind boggles.

#46 Smoking Man on 02.27.17 at 10:37 pm

Tune on the ear buds in the plasma flier on my way to confront Zumanga in Antarctica . .. why that tune? No idea.

Maybe Sherly Valintine in my thoughts.

https://www.youtube.com/shared?ci=_n3Yb3_Hgno

#47 Newcomer on 02.27.17 at 11:04 pm

Money keeps flowing to Canada, 8000 millionaires came here, that’s 8000 houses that were bought. There is no end to it, this is not mom and pop market anymore, we’re global
—————
So about 8% of immigrant households had a million dollars, which is slightly less than the percentage of existing Canadian households with a million dollars (about 9%). So the people coming here are, as you would expect, more or less like ordinary Canadians and things are just tootling along in the usual way.

#48 "billionaire buddies" on 02.27.17 at 11:07 pm

“Since his election last November, markets have viewed this wacky guy as a pro-business pumper with a cabinet stuffed with billionaire buddies who’ll do whatever it takes to goose profits and make capitalism great again.”

What’s new about this?

The Clintons have fewer “billionaire buddies”?

“Cabinet.” — Garth

#49 Timmy on 02.27.17 at 11:40 pm

RE #34 MF…Obama was hamstrung by the rabid Republican Party. it is kind of difficult to get things done when the opposition deliberately opposes everything you do. The US economy was hemmoraging when Obama took office, loosing 800,000 jobs a month thanks to the ineptitude of George Bush. Obama left office with the lowest unemployment rate in over 25 years. He also passed a massive stimulus bill in less than 6 weeks. This current goof has done nothing to get this infrastructure plan going, and likely won’t, because of incompetence.

#50 For those about to flop... on 02.28.17 at 2:12 am

I have been in Canada for a while but I wasn’t eligible to vote for a long time as I was happy enough just being a permanent resident here and keeping my Australian citizenship.

Now I am a dual citizen and eligible to vote, I feel this year is the time I start to exercise my right to vote .

Garth urged me to find reason to vote for someone in the last federal election ,as opposed to finding a reason to vote against someone .I listened to his point of view but I abstained and didn’t see the point in driving 70kms to cancel out my wife’s vote that she was passionate about and I would have been voting just to say I voted.I probably would have voted Conservative as I wanted to keep the TSFA as high as possible but my riding has been strong NDP since David Emerson (Liberal/ Conservative) crossed the floor and irked everyone a while back.

One of the last times Garth chirped me on the blog was because I was talking about the election a few days afterwards and he said I had no right to comment as I did not vote.
Who has more right to comment on things,someone who votes or someone who pays their taxes?

I felt as a taxpayer I still had a right, but as I have watched the carnage unfold in B.C since the last federal election I feel that this year I will listen to Garth’s advice and find a reason to vote in Canada for the first time even though I have been here for 15 years in the upcoming provincial election.

As I said once when Garth was talking about shuttering the blog, I believe this blog has helped me to become more connected with my adopted country and it’s people and also a more informed citizen.

Having said all this ,I find the current crop of politicians uninspiring , both provincially and federally and with the two main parties I see the same problem as choosing between Mars Bar and Snickers Bar.

One has a soft centre and the other one is full of nuts…

M42BC

#51 TRT on 02.28.17 at 3:46 am

Detached houses going higher.

2 reasons.

1) Foreign money
2) Immigration

Locals not horny. GW and CMHC debt a nt account for locals forcing on debt. Media that says that they are is #fakenews.

#52 TRT on 02.28.17 at 3:50 am

@Ronaldo – last post from yesterday last blog post.

Should have saved your breath. GIS calculated automatically when you apply for OAS and do your taxes.

#53 MF on 02.28.17 at 4:44 am

#49 Timmy on 02.27.17 at 11:40 pm

People are STILL blaming bush for 2008? This is a simple kneejerk reaction that is false.

That crisis had roots dating back to the 1980’s, and had causal effects from the policies of both political parties. A lot of deregulation happemed under Clinton in the 90’s as an example.

Obama’s economy only “improved” because it had nowhere else to go but up when he took office. His “stimulus plan” would have been passed by whoever was in office at the time. A stimulus that papered over the issue, rewarded the culprits, and added trillions of debt that will come back to haunt us all.

Obama’s legacy is one of billions of worthless part time mcjobs in an environment hobbled by Obamacare’s requirements dressed up by overly manipulated job statistics to make him “look good”. As we saw in the last election middle america was simply ignored by arrogant left leaning Democrats who were fed manipulated statistics for so long they actually believed it.

Month after month being told how good the job market and economy was while 1) stuck at zero interest rates 2) trillions of “QE”. To anyone looking in something didn’t smell right.

Obama’s true legacy is arrogance, failed foreign policy where our allies were ignored, race wars, and the worst “recovery” from recession ever.

No wonder the Republicans opposed him. That’s how the US political system works. To ensure someone with terrible ideas doesn’t run amok in power.

Great teleprompter reader/actor though.

MF

#54 "billionaire buddies" on 02.28.17 at 7:23 am

#48 “billionaire buddies” on 02.27.17 at 11:07 pm

“Since his election last November, markets have viewed this wacky guy as a pro-business pumper with a cabinet stuffed with billionaire buddies who’ll do whatever it takes to goose profits and make capitalism great again.”

What’s new about this?

The Clintons have fewer “billionaire buddies”?

“Cabinet.” — Garth

We have yet to see whether the “billionaire buddies” in the cabinet or with their lobbyists do more of that “whatever it takes to goose profits”.

If the cabinets stuffed with political appointee buddies in Western countries in the past 15 years were so great at “making capitalism work, even at an OK level”, would you see Brexit, Trump in the oval office and whatever else is coming?

What’s the big rush to make hysterical judgement before the cabinet is not even complete and there is absolutely zero economic data on the effect of “billionaire buddies in the cabinet, goosing profits” – other than stocks rallying since the election result?

Let’s leave the drama for Hollywood celebrities and Hollywood owned media, e.g. Time/Warner’s CNN.

What ‘hysteria’ and ‘drama’? You Trump toadies are a hoot. — Garth

#55 pBrasseur on 02.28.17 at 7:26 am

The message today is simple. You have no idea what’s coming. Unpredictability is rampant. – Garth

Same message you’ve been trumpeting for 10 years now! To be fair it’s always been true, and that’s because not knowing what’s coming is actually the norm!

But there are thing wo DO know. For example we know that free market capitalism creates wealth and socialism doesn’t. We know that wealth is created by businesses and nothing else and that by owning shares of great businesses you can benefit the most from wealth creation. Now put that in you ETF or mutual fund and smoke it!

#56 Paul on 02.28.17 at 7:32 am

#22 Timmy on 02.27.17 at 7:27 pm

I agree with Buffet: the US economy will do just fine, despite the fact that they have an incompetent US President.
———————————————————-President Trump Is incompetent ?

Where does that put you on the competency list?

#57 The real Kip on 02.28.17 at 7:33 am

What comes after trillion? Quadrillion? How much is a quadrillion? 1000 trillion?

Global unfunded liability just hit $500-trillion. Pay off the roof over your head, when the bubble pops it’s going to get ugly.

#58 IHCTD9 on 02.28.17 at 7:53 am

#2 Alice on 02.27.17 at 5:21 pm
Top accounting firm predicts Canada Will Drop Out Of Top 20 Economies, US To Fall To 3rd. Glorious time to be Canadian.

https://betterdwelling.com/pwc-canada-to-drop-out-of-top-20-economies-us-to-fall-to-3rd/
__________________________________

Slack growth for Canada as far as the eye can see. This is why the budget didn’t “balance itself”.

Simply do not buy it the next time a Canadian politician starts talking about “investing to grow the economy”. Not happening. Don’t be stupid.

You want reality? The future in Canada brings more debt for Citizens and Government, less prosperity for most, and of course, more taxes.

The generation following the Millennials better have a game plan to live cheap and save big, the only way to maintain any standard of living will be with a big portfolio that kicks off a respectable income – the job market cant be counted on in the future to provide the incomes it did in the past.

#59 jess on 02.28.17 at 8:14 am

Thu Feb 23, 2017 | 12:46 PM EST
U.S. extends its search for dirty money in real estate
The U.S. Treasury Department said it will extend its search for criminals who seek to launder money by buying U.S. real estate.

The U.S. Treasury Department Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) will extend for 180 days a rule ordering title insurance companies to report to authorities all-cash purchases in parts of California, Texas, Florida and New York, the agency said in a statement Thursday.

The order mandates that the title companies identify the real purchaser, even when the sale is made through shell companies.

The information was “valuable data that is assisting law enforcement and is serving to inform our future efforts to address money laundering in the real estate sector,” said FinCEN Acting Director Jamal El-Hindi.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN16226W?il=0

=============
sickos
RICO Charge in Pharmaceutical Case
White Collar Watch

By PETER J. HENNING DEC. 12, 2016

Insys Therapeutics, Inc.“Subsys,”(fentanyl-based pain medication. ) is a powerful narcotic intended to treat cancer patients
https://www.justice.gov/usao-ma/pr/pharmaceutical-executives-charged-racketeering-scheme
https://www.justice.gov/usao-ct/pr/indictment-charges-drug-company-manager-engaging-kickback-scheme-related-fentanyl-spray
Employees of John N. Kapoor’s Insys Therapeutics bribed doctors to prescribe large, off-label doses of painkiller, prosecutors charge
Subsys fentanyl, an opioid painkiller spray used by cancer patients that can cost thousands of dollars a month.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/12/business/dealbook/rico-charge-in-pharmaceutical-case-may-signal-tougher-tactics.html?_r=0

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.28.17 at 8:26 am

@#50 Flop
“find a reason to vote in Canada for the first time even though I have been here for 15 years…..”
********************************************

While I totally agree that the current incompetants dont deserve your vote.
I find it somewhat ironic that you havent bothered to vote in Canada now that you are dual Canadian/Australian and yet you are required to vote in their Ozzie elections by law.
“Joe Hockey for PM?”

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.28.17 at 8:28 am

@#56 Paul

“President Trump Is incompetent ?”
********************************************

Ok Ok. He’s not incompetant.
He’s insane.
Feel better now?

#62 Peter on 02.28.17 at 8:56 am

Garth, a must read by Bloomberg on Canadian housing market. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-27/foreigners-housing-bets-start-with-banks-canada-economy-watch

#63 IHCTD9 on 02.28.17 at 9:15 am

#49 Timmy on 02.27.17 at 11:40 pm
—–

Obama was getting pretty good at ordering drone strikes in the middle east.

Other than that…

#64 judgement calls on 02.28.17 at 9:20 am

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.28.17 at 8:28 am

@#56 Paul

“President Trump Is incompetent ?”
********************************************

Ok Ok. He’s not incompetant.
He’s insane.
Feel better now?

—-

One can only imagine what would that make you – comparing your achievements to the achievements of what you call an “incompetent insane” person.

You seem to pick the perfect name for yourself. Congrats for that achievement.

#65 traderJim on 02.28.17 at 9:27 am

#56 Paul

I also love the people here complaining about not having enough money to buy a house and also saying a multi-billionaire is a lousy businessman, hahaha.

They really do live in an alternate ‘reality’.

But most of the anti-Trumpers are just following the script. They see it on CNN, and follow like good little lambs. First he was Hitler, now the narrative is he’s incompetent and has mental health issues, the next phase will be ‘ok, he’s not incompetent or insane but I just don’t like him’.

That’s also called the ‘acceptance’ stage of their grieving period. They have a ways to go yet before they get there.

Latest NBC/WSJ poll, even though biased by 5 full points in favour of the Dems, shows Trump significantly more popular than the Democratic party, which as Scott Adams pointed out, means in their terms Hitler is more popular now than the Democratic Party (and its major players, Schumer, Pelosi etc).

Hahaha, you got to love unintended consequences!

https://twitter.com/guypbenson/status/836250551805435906

(p.s. remember when they were saying the electoral college was not going to elect Trump, hahahaha. So many good memories)

#66 IHCTD9 on 02.28.17 at 9:33 am

#50 For those about to flop… on 02.28.17 at 2:12 am
_________________________________

I have little to look forward to on my end of the country either. No Conservatives in Ontario anymore. I will still vote, but I will likely be voting swan dive (Liberal). Muzzle to temple expediency for the people. The sooner the train comes off the rails – the sooner folks that might have a clue that don’t live in Ontario will need to intervene.

If the Ontario Libs get another mandate, the stage will be set. I will then be voting for the worst trough feeding career public servant airhead that comes along – until I see the mushroom cloud.

#67 pBrasseur on 02.28.17 at 10:14 am

U.S. extends its search for dirty money in real estate
The U.S. Treasury Department said it will extend its search for criminals who seek to launder money by buying U.S. real estate. #59 Jess

And of course T2 and his bunch will welcome the real estate mafia «refugees»….

#68 Recency Bias on 02.28.17 at 10:16 am

Recency bias and loss aversion are two of the worst cognitive biases messing up our investment decisions.

Click the link below for a cognitive bias cheat sheet (because, after all, thinking is hard):

https://betterhumans.coach.me/cognitive-bias-cheat-sheet-55a472476b18#.cnrg3jr45

#69 Crazyfox on 02.28.17 at 10:22 am

#43 cramar on 02.27.17 at 9:49 pm

Wilbur Ross is another Trump cabinet pick with Russian ties to Putin:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/27/commerce-nominee-wilbur-ross-bank-of-cyprus-putin

The preamble:

When Russia became a democracy in 1991,Yeltsin was elected. Yeltsin, needing money himself to stay in power, organized a series of auctions of which, up for sale, was Russia’s resources by way of state run companies. 25 years ago in Russia, there were few millionaires. Those that had money bought these state owned companies for fractions of a penny on the dollar and became known of what is today, Russian oligarchs:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_oligarch

These Oligarchs are known as “the family”, its leader Putin. Two names of interest are Vladimir Gusinsky which is worth a read. Gusinsky was a self made media mogul and driven out of Russia after reporting bombings near the 1999 election that pointed to FSB (Putin). Putin drove Gusinsky to exhile and instead of expropriating assets to the state, kept the assets for himself, fairly assessed at $1.1 billion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Gusinsky

Gusinsky wasn’t the only media mogul run out of Russia by Putin. Boris Berezovsky was also run out of Russia. Berezovsky was not self made or rather, was a Yeltsin Oligarch who made $ 3 billion during the 90’s until he gave Putin bad press and was forced into exile. His assets were also confiscated by Putin and never returned to the state of Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boris_Berezovsky_(businessman)

But I digress.

The one thing in common most Russian oligarchs have with Trump and Paul Manafort and now in the spotlight Wilbur Ross, is Russian money needing an exchange into international currency. Paul Manafort was in effect, a money launderer. This was his job working for Fernandez Marcos, a brutal dictator that raped Philippine national treasures for somewhere between $ 5 and 9 billion and needed to move some of it overseas. Same goes for Mobutu Sese Seko Mobutu who became notorious for corruption, nepotism, and the embezzlement of between US$4 billion and $15 billion during his reign as president of copper rich Congo:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobutu_Sese_Seko

What was Paul Manafort doing with Viktor Yanukovych? Same thing. Helping Viktor get elected and once in power, helping Viktor move money out of the Ukraine. In 2008, Manafort was helping Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska and Ukrainian oligarch Dmytro Firtash. Firtash is up against charges of bribery and money laundering in the U.S. (convicted on Feb 17 2017).

A picture is beginning to develop here connecting Trump to money laundering with Russian oligarchs. Trump owned a $ 40 million dollar home in Florida back in 2006 and sold it in 2008 to a Russian oligarch for $100 million. His name is Dmitry Rybolovlev:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Rybolovlev

No one has resided there since and the mansion has begun to be torn down. It was the largest privately sold home in the U.S. (see, I do talk about real estate :). Who orchestrated it? Wilbur Ross. The same Wilbur Ross who has been confirmed as commerce secretary. Here’s the interesting thing…
In September 2010, Rybolovlev bought a 9.7% stake in Cyprus largest bank Bank of Cyprus. Rybolovlev’s investment in Bank of Cyprus followed a long business and personal association with the country. Wilbur Ross is also the largest shareholder of the bank of Cypress since 2013, running it with Deutsche bank’s former CEO (the one and same involved with Deutsche bank’s Libor scandal and 10 billion dollar Russian money laundering scandal),two banks notoriously known for, wait for it, laundering Russian money for Russian oligarchs.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/feb/16/how-donald-trump-became-deutsche-bank-biggest-headache

This link is also worth a read…
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/08/29/deutsche-banks-10-billion-scandal

You get the picture. Trump. Manafort. Ross. Russian oligarchs. Money laundering. Anyone still believe Trump doesn’t have anything to do with Russians?

So we’ll all get to hear Trump talk to Congress today. We can expect some lies. Demagogue speak. Tax cuts for the Koch bros and U.S. billionaires elite. Of course, billionaires are beyond corruption, they have so much money. And we will hear about spending cuts on social programs to pay for it. But there’s that other sound… its faint still but getting louder… “Impee… impeach… impeachment?” That’s it. Impeachment. It took 14 months for Nixon to be impeached. I can’t say how this will play out. The Republicans rule all three branches of government. The WH controls all of the heads of intelligence. With the help of Senate and congress, all forms of investigation can be muted. All that stands in the way of Trump is the media…. and it won’t be coming from Fox news.

#70 lquidincalgary on 02.28.17 at 10:29 am

anyone else hear about Trudy Jr possibly taxing health and dental plans?

#71 pBrasseur on 02.28.17 at 10:55 am

Canadian banks are still killing it!

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/bank-of-montreal-earnings-blows-past-expectations-while-scotiabank-hikes-dividend

Which can only mean one thing –> the great Canadian debt binge continues.

#72 For those about to flop... on 02.28.17 at 11:01 am

crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.28.17 at 8:26 am
@#50 Flop
“find a reason to vote in Canada for the first time even though I have been here for 15 years…..”
********************************************

While I totally agree that the current incompetants dont deserve your vote.
I find it somewhat ironic that you havent bothered to vote in Canada now that you are dual Canadian/Australian and yet you are required to vote in their Ozzie elections by law.
“Joe Hockey for PM?”

///////////////////////////////////

Hey Crowdie,yeah I think it has been around 20 years since I voted.

I remember when I left Australia in the late 90,s the key election issue in an upcoming election was the Australian Liberals proposal to bring in a g.s.t.

After that I lived in Europe for a while and I wasn’t eligible to vote in Canada as I was only a permanent resident for along time.

I think since I was eligible to vote I only skipped the last federal election but I will try and get more involved even though I will probably cancel out my wife’s vote a lot of the time.

In regards to voting being mandatory in Australia, some people thought it was a good idea and others wanted it scrapped.

The argument went that it was good to get everyone involved, but the other side thought that when doing this you get a heap of people that aren’t engaged in the issues and can distort the vote.

My citizenship ceremony was full of people from all over the world who looked clearly relieved to have the certificate in their hands and was a new chapter in their lives.I had been here so long that I just looked at it as continuation with less paperwork and it is now a little easier to cross the border.

Canada and Australia have their share of problems but overall in the world they are still top shelf.

You only need to see an immigrants face when they learn they can stay from some war torn country once to reinforce this…

M42BC

M42BC

#73 aa3 on 02.28.17 at 11:02 am

The 5% down, aka 20 times leverage, plus a 100% government guarantee for the banks on those loans is what makes housing go to idiotic levels.

Can you imagine how high the stock market would go if people could take 20 times leverage to buy Canadian stocks, and the government guaranteed those banks loans?

Of course it would end with a monster crash that would bankrupt the government, as the housing crash will do when it happens.

#74 traderJim on 02.28.17 at 11:12 am

#69 Crazy

I’m sure we all agree then, there should be a major, serious investigation into voter fraud.

If the Russkies somehow ‘hacked’ the election, they must have created fraudulent Trump votes, right?

Sure hope they look into that.

Obviously, voter ID and much better oversight of the whole process are needed.

I’m sure no Democrat will oppose making sure votes can’t be manipulated again.

#75 45north on 02.28.17 at 11:30 am

Ontario income tax form:

ZDNET shows a video: H & R Block is now using IBM’s Watson Super Computer to apply the rules of the ( US ) 74,000 page tax code. 74,000! I don’t know where Canada stands in the tax code race but I do remember when there was no separate provincial tax form.

My theory: the separate provincial tax form gives the civil servants in Queens Park something to do.

#76 Toronto RE is a total mess on 02.28.17 at 11:52 am

Garth, it seems Toronto RE is just one giant ball of a shitstorm…politicians Tory and Wynne just seem to enjoy the kickbacks from developers and land transfer / property tax windfalls too much to care about making changes….even though they know Vancouver was a huge warning sign of what can happen…

Also, TREB has way too much control over the real estate market , the single biggest asset of people is being managed by a privately owned , members only club, full of greed .

There is almost zero oversight or regulation from the government, which keeps going after mortgages, when really its TREB that needs the boot.

The low price listings and massively hyped bidding wars are proof that this system is rigged to inflate the bubble. People are bidding $200k over asking when $50k will do. The blind bidding system is a scam.

Never mind the delayed HPI stats to fool everyone.

When is the government going to step in and make changes ?? This is absolutely out of control.

#77 James on 02.28.17 at 12:04 pm

#69 Crazyfox on 02.28.17 at 10:22 am

You would have to have been in a nuclear fallout shelter with earplugs not to have known that Trump is connected to Russia. He has many holdings and investments abroad including Russia. Impeachment is merely a matter of time with Trump. He thinks that he is untouchable and that what ever he spews out of his little orange yapper is the gospel. You are correct the Republicans rule all three branches of government and the WH controls all of the heads of intelligence. With the help of Senate and congress, all forms of investigation can be muted. All that stands in the way of Trump is the media…. and it won’t be coming from Fox news. You have to know that not all republicans have hitched their horses to trumps wagon. Some are just These Republicans in senate, congress, and governors all report to the people for their paychecks. Although the general masses that voted for Trump may have been duped by the “Make America Great Again” crap you have to know that his base and core support are not that intelligent. Just watching him whip then up with chants of USA,USA,USA at his rallies doesn’t take care of scoring new jobs, better healthcare and protecting America from terrorism. They all think that chanting USA repeatably is a panacea for their embetterment. He flew in to the presidential position on a lark. Yesterday he stated who knew how complex the health care system was. Really Donald? WTF did you think it was going to be like? He has no f$%king clue as to how it will impact the average Joe. When the average American meathead that chanted USA,USA,USA losses his or her health benefits and realizes that their high paying factory job is not re-shoring any time ever, they may actually reflect and say WTF did we do. This guy has to go, hes full of sh#t. Trump will as always mess up everything that he touches. That’s when the Republicans will have to impeach.

#78 aa3 on 02.28.17 at 12:23 pm

#76 The government is made up of people, 99% of whom are housing bulls, pumped up about how high the price of their house is.

#79 IHCTD9 on 02.28.17 at 12:27 pm

#39 MF on 02.27.17 at 9:15 pm

…This author has some great articles for anyone who is listening. He’s often critical real estate, central bankers, T2.

Must have been a “glitch” no one noticed that allows his good articles to be published.

Probably is therefore the pariah of the CBC who eats lunch in the corner alone, never gets invited to drinks after work, and whose desk is in the basement facing a furnace.

MF

_____________________________________

Yes Pitts, but also Graeme Gordon, and Robyn Urback. Outside of these three it’s pretty much a collection of Trudeau apologists.

Lately, I have taken to reading more of a more right wing rag: The Toronto Star…

#80 n1tro on 02.28.17 at 12:35 pm

You know things are messed up when the Ontario government is championing for the “little people” by going after those evil ticket scalpers and their sneaky bots.

Here is your chance to say what a waste of time this is.

https://www.ontario.ca/page/consultation-ticket-buying-and-resale

#81 solamite on 02.28.17 at 12:37 pm

Garth:
So interesting for tonight’s blog: CBC

37% of young homeowners borrow from ‘bank of mom and dad,’ HSBC survey indicates

More than a third already own and the vast majority of the rest want to, according to poll

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/hsbc-housing-survey-1.4002458

What do ya think?

#82 soost on 02.28.17 at 1:12 pm

Paul Johston – yea the guy who slaps a price tag on anything modern looking in the GTA and collects a commission – just posted this on his facebook account:

https://scontent-yyz1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/16998797_10210896284296237_4612270477206996886_n.jpg?oh=407aac2d40b2358fe2b9b95b63ea517a&oe=59388D85

Does he have any scruples ? Probably not.

Did he violate any rules by posting this publicly? Hopefully.

#83 For those about to flop... on 02.28.17 at 1:16 pm

These guys are playing with fire.

They are on the hook for 5.15m after signing on the dotted line in April 2016 for a 45y.o house and it is assessed at 4.85m.

All this in a city where the average sale price is down 16.5% y.o.y and minus 23% from the time they bought it last year.

They are still looking to make a profit ,but it better have a 5.5 million dollar view…

M42BC

1418 Bramwell Road, West Vancouver

Jan 18:$5,990,000
Feb 27: $5,760,000
Change: – 230000.00 -4%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAyOUQ0VQ==

#84 dups on 02.28.17 at 1:20 pm

37% of young homeowners borrow from ‘bank of mom and dad,’ HSBC survey indicates:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/hsbc-housing-survey-1.4002458

#85 Another Book Review on 02.28.17 at 2:20 pm

Kahneman, Daniel. 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux.

A great book on how to improve one’s financial and economic decisions. The author identifies cognitive biases and logical fallacies that can lead to judgments and choices often deviating significantly from the predictions of statistical and economic models.

#86 rainclouds on 02.28.17 at 2:32 pm

Regarding young’uns borrowing from their idiot parents.

Pretty sure everyone on this blog knows someone who had little initiative but parents who constantly prop up the fruit of their loins financially.

Cause little Johnny or Janie didn’t EARN it (aka work, save, invest) It has little meaning and if it disappears. oh well.

Imagine if housing tanks and the snowflakes find themselves underwater. Not losing their down payment when they bail…..Mommy is.

What a mess

#87 TSX on 02.28.17 at 3:01 pm

At support , below the 50 and 200 Dma .

Last yr was silly .no fundamentals to support .

Hanging on a cliff…:)

#88 jess on 02.28.17 at 3:06 pm

“availability heuristic,” a term coined by Nobel laureate psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman for the human instinct to base an important decision on an easily recalled, dramatic example, even if that example is irrelevant or incredibly rare.

#89 soost on 02.28.17 at 3:14 pm

Hey #86 Rainclouds. :

You make it sound like working harder to afford a house is an option for young people. Like we can just put in a few extra night shifts — In today’s economy it is a fallacy.

The bank of M&D offered me assistance for this exact reason – and their reasons are noble.

Its because I choose to use their money as prudently as my own that I do not own real estate.

The crux of stupidity is in how grown children do/do not exercise restraint with this money.

I think it is wrong, however, to question the hard work of my generation or the nobility of their parents.

#90 Blacksheep on 02.28.17 at 3:42 pm

Flop # 83,

Math for your sample:

Reduced ask @ $5,760,000 – Buy price @ $5,150,000

$ 610,000 to the good?

I’m not sure your repeatedly showing examples of parties breaking even, or most likely making profit, is having the deterring effect you desire.

Come on dude, show us the carnage!

Vultures are gonna starve at this rate…..

#91 devore on 02.28.17 at 3:42 pm

#37 cecilhenry

This is a big part of the issue, despite the denials. IT always has been:

Immigration Drives Up Home Prices

Really? Immigration raised US home prices in the early 2000s?

#92 Ace Goodheart on 02.28.17 at 3:56 pm

RE: #89 soost on 02.28.17 at 3:14 pm

You sound like one of the more responsible ones.

I have done quite a bit of reading as to how “first time homebuyers” obtain their “downpayments” and what I have learned is kind of frightening. I obtained my information by simply “googling” various terms associated with first time purchases of houses, and then reading the various blogs, postings and articles on this subject which are available to be read.

What I found was that usually the downpayment is obtained from a mixture of borrowing from relatives, borrowing from third party lenders (like high interest, “no collateral” term loans – often with interest rates of as much as 46%!), borrowing from credit cards (cash advances) and cashing in of savings and RRSPs.

The rest of the purchase is a mortgage, with final approval for financing often coming AFTER the first time homebuyer has signed a binding contract to purchase a home.

The binding contract seems to be signed in the course of a heated bidding war, where the first time buyer (usually a couple) will “offer” much higher than they can afford, and then figure out financing afterwards. Or where they have a “pre-approval” subject to an appraisal or other bank conditions.

The whole process is really a jump off of a cliff with the landing figured out as the person falls towards the rocks. It is quite incredible to see how people actually do it.

This appears to be why they are now insisting that people put a certified cheque with an actual deposit along with their offer and show some proof they actually have financing.

Oh and I guess the other point to remember about real estate wealth, is the point that everyone seems to forget. You may be a multi millionaire sitting in a house that is worth multi millions. But you are dirt poor unless you sell the house. You can’t earn distributions or dividends off of a house.

#93 devore on 02.28.17 at 3:57 pm

#81 solamite

More than a third already own and the vast majority of the rest want to, according to poll

I wonder if they asked how many want a Ferrari in the garage while they were at it.

#94 jess on 02.28.17 at 4:24 pm

The European Parliament demands public disclosure for all companies and trusts

“By deciding to support public registers for all companies and trusts, the Parliament has shown that it truly wants to tackle illicit flows like tax evasion and money laundering, and wants to make sure others outside Europe​ can utilise the information, too. By making this data public, government authorities, journalists and citizens in the global south would be more resourced to track down tax abuse in their home countries, as EU legal entities are a favourite choice for moving dirty money.
“Today’s vote is a welcome step towards greater transparency which is a critical element of the fight against extreme poverty. Illicit financial flows worth billions of dollars are siphoned out of developing countries through anonymous companies and trusts. If just a portion of these stolen and hidden funds was properly taxed, this could help developing countries finance their fight against extreme poverty, providing vital government revenues for education, healthcare and infrastructure in the poorest countries.
https://financialtransparency.org/meps-vote-amld/
http://www.taxjustice.net/2017/02/28/great-day-tax-justice-coming-closer-ending-anonymous-ownership/

#95 45north on 02.28.17 at 4:45 pm

solamite: 37% of young homeowners borrow from ‘bank of mom and dad,’ HSBC survey indicates

What do ya think?

I see disaster. The young homeowners are stretched to the limit. The price of houses has been bid up – way past fundamentals. There is no safety net.

In the 1930’s, the stock market crashed, people lost everything but only some people. Only a tiny minority of the population ever bought stocks but today 70% of families own houses ( or condos or whatever ). After the stock market crashed regulations were put in place to stop people from buying stocks on margin but today people routinely buy houses with 5% down. The people that sell stocks are severely restricted in the claims they can make but people that sell real estate are not.

How does this not sound like disaster?

#96 neo on 02.28.17 at 4:58 pm

Fed March rate hike odds just spiked to above 70% from 30%. Nothing to see here….

#97 For those about to flop... on 02.28.17 at 5:01 pm

Blacksheep on 02.28.17 at 3:42 pm
Flop # 83,

Math for your sample:

Reduced ask @ $5,760,000 – Buy price @ $5,150,000

$ 610,000 to the good?

I’m not sure your repeatedly showing examples of parties breaking even, or most likely making profit, is having the deterring effect you desire.

Come on dude, show us the carnage!

Vultures are gonna starve at this rate…..

////////////////////////

Hey Blackie,not all my posts are Pink Snow related.

As I come across certain situations I like to show some of the risk being taken as well.

Another house came on the market in Shaughnessy the last day or so and they are on the hook for 7 million.

Every day in Vancouver there is still a crazy amount of money being made on real estate.

I don’t need to waste time showcasing that though ,as that’s the media’s job…

M42BC

#98 solamite on 02.28.17 at 5:11 pm

Garth,

more homework for tonight’s blog:

Check out CMHC guide on home ownership:

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/buho/step-by-step/index.cfm

I wonder what your version of that guide would look like…

#99 For those about to flop... on 02.28.17 at 5:30 pm

Here’s another one for the guys interested in detached Vancouver homes for under a million.

About a 5 minute walk from my place in a decent area.

The “strong candidate for upgrading” line in the listing cracked me up.

I thought they were talking politics for a moment…

M42BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/962-e-29th-avenue

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.28.17 at 7:20 pm

@#64 judgement day

“One can only imagine what would that make you – comparing your achievements to the achievements of what you call an “incompetent insane” person.

You seem to pick the perfect name for yourself. Congrats for that achievement.
********************************************

Thank you. I appreciate that.

My other name choices were just as ofaculatorially offensive but with less pizzazz.
But when ever you jump into a stinky elevator …..
anywhere in the world……
you WILL think of me ……. whether you want to or not.
And love me or hate me, you have to admit.

Thats power