The melt

Vancouver real estate is melting down while Toronto melts up. In YVR, buyers rock. In the GTA, they’re livestock – herded into unwanted auctions, kept in the dark, treated as dumb commodities. Neither market is healthy, balanced. Nor can current conditions last. What a mess.

Troubles in Toronto boil down to one thing. Supply. Currently there’s a 19-day supply of fresh houses as listings plunge but demand is sustained. The result is predictable. Multiple offers, bully bids and sale prices that soar far about list. Potential buyers are forced to table offers at a specified time, taple a certified cheque for $100,000 or so to the paper, cough up a bid for more than the sellers asked, then wait at the curb to see if they make the cut – the opportunity to find even more money, on the spot. Risk abounds. They’re paying too much. Financing could be rejected. The appraisal might be less than the sale price. Or a simple matrimonial homicide ensue.

Why so few houses? Mostly because nobody can afford to move. Once you find a greater fool to overpay for your digs, you must go and compete for another place. I ask every recent seller I meet if they’d buy their own house at the price they received. “Hell, no,” they say. “Are you nuts?”

This is a sick market. With any new shock, it will start to fall over.

Realtors know that. It’s why they fear a Chinese Dudes tax in the GTA. Not because foreign buyers are pushing prices and sales, but because any sharp breeze will send this gossamer craft crashing back to earth. A new tax. Mortgage rate spike. A Trump attack. Anything.

In that vein, the local GTA realtors’ cartel has just offered proof  a river of cash out of China, Russia or the US is not  influencing Toronto’s blistering market. Of the 113,133 houses sold last year, they say only 4.9% involved foreign buyers. Half of them were securing real estate for their own use, and 66% of the buys were for houses listed under $1 million. Hardly a game-changer in a sea of 6,000,000 people.

So why are prices out of control? As I’ve been telling ya, it’s supply.

“If you look at the active listings at the end of December 2016, they were half of what they were at the end of December 2015. It’s pretty difficult not to say that the real issue underlying price in the GTA is the lack of inventory,” says the real estate board. Correct. Foreign buyers are a distraction. A scapegoat. Like the Trumpster’s war on Muslims. (The White House actually said this week the slaughter of Muslins in Quebec by a local white Trump supporter shows how dangerous those pesky Islam guys are. Seriously.)

So, if the province caves to prevailing deplorable sentiment and brings in a Chinese Dudes tax, expect a rerun in the Big Smoke of what’s happening in smoked-up Vancouver. Lots of unintended consequences.

On that note, let’s welcome some original analysis by a thoroughly knowledgeable Blog Dog who wishes anonymity lest he be hung like a piteous sausage from the Port Mann bridge. “In the coming 24 hours, the REBGV will issue a press release with a whole bunch of massaged numbers and fictitious benchmarks for January,” he says. “Here are some real numbers from the board’s own database.”

1. Processed and Sold in January: 313 in 2017 vs 763 in 2016; down 59%

2. Average Sold Price in January: $1.58 million in 2017 vs $1.83 million in 2016; down 14%

3. Median Sold Price in January: $1.28 million in 2017 vs $1.46 million in 2016; down 12%

4. New Listings in January: 1,921 in 2017 vs 2,031 in 2016; down 5% (keep this in mind when reviewing the over $3 and $5 million stats below)

5. Average New Listings Price in January 2017: $2.65 million (or 68% higher than the Average Sold Price in January 2017)

6. Median New Listings Price in January 2017: $1.92 million (or 50% higher than the Median Sold Price in January 2017)

7. Number of Houses Sold over $3 million in January: 22 in 2017 vs 105 in 2016; down 79%

8. New Listings for Houses Asking over $3 million in January: 485 in 2017 vs 430 in 2016; up 13%

9. Total Current Listings for Houses Asking over $3 million: 1,073 houses.

10. Sales-to-Listings Ratio for Houses over $3 million: 2% or approx. 4 years of supply or inventory at this sales rate.

11. Number of Houses Sold over $5 million in January: 6 in 2017 vs 23 in 2016; down 74%

12. New Listings for Houses Asking over $5 million in January: 170 in 2017 vs 139 in 2016; up 22%

13. Total Current Listings for Houses Asking over $5 million: 405 houses

14. Sales-to-Listings Ratio for Houses over $5 million: 1.5% or approx. 5 years of supply or inventory at this sales rate.

Bonus Stat #1. Dollar Value of Houses Sold in January: $494 million in 2017 vs $1.4 billion in 2016; down over $900 million in Greater Vancouver alone.  This does not include the Fraser Valley or the rest of the province.  At this rate, the BC government will collect $300 million less in Land Transfer Tax (aka. Christy Clark’s 2015 and 2016 windfall profits to balance the BC budget).

Bonus Stat #2:  Of the 313 sales in January, 91% of those Detached Houses sold for less than their original asking price.  (versus approx. 33% in January 2016)

My interpretation of the real numbers:  Despite the real estate cartel’s carefully orchestrated narrative, supply is not the issue and has not been the reason for the obscene price appreciation for many years now.  Inventory is now building at a record pace, particularly for houses listed over $3 million.  The local, hard working, honest tax paying residents of all races and ethnicity cannot afford those houses.  Beginning in the summer of 2016, there was a quantifiable reduction in foreign money flooding the Vancouver market.  The trickle down effect of that reduction is now accelerating throughout the BC region. The most telling statistic for me is the average asking price of the new listings at $2.65 million vs the average sold price of $1.58 million in January.  Keep in mind, 30% of all active listings in Greater Vancouver are asking over $3 million, 1,073 listings; whereas 93% of houses sold in January for under $3 million.

As stated, this market is one sick puppy. The GTA real estate scene’s been similarly infected, and any push will send it into an unhappy spiral. If you really want to make an epic move, sell today and buy in Nova Scotia. I hear they have Starbucks. The Internet. Cable. And wall-to-wall Liberals.

174 comments ↓

#1 Sari Oosterhoff on 02.01.17 at 5:00 pm

Don’t care if a foreign buyer’s tax is grounded in a legitimate problem as long as the sentiment causes this market to come back to earth.

Gotta tell ya though – TREB’s Ipsos “we asked realtors really nicely to self-report” Reid poll is far from credible.

Do you think they lied? Share your data. — Garth

#2 Pre-retiree on 02.01.17 at 5:03 pm

Call me dumb if you want…
My questions are:
– If foreign buyers represent(ed) such a little percentage of buyers in GV and GTA, then why:
1) Did the sales plummet in GV
2) Why are the realtors so afraid of an additional tax on foreign buyers.
This is a discrepancy that needs to be explained to me.

No discrepancy. Foreign sales in Van proper topped out a little under 10%, twice the level of the GTA. As I carefully explained here last June, months before the Chinese Dudes tax was announced or enacted, the market was starting to collapse upon itself, with sales plunging. All it took was one impetus to roll over. The tax proved to be that push. Completely logical. — Garth

#3 Sari Oosterhoff on 02.01.17 at 5:05 pm

Do you think they lied? Share your data. — Garth

Its irrelevant to me whether they lied Garth – you’ve stated many times that TREB dolling out advice on market increases is clearly not credible.
Asking A7-lease-payment-realtors to self-report is similarly garbage.

That’s why I read this blog….

Its time we stopped taking market advice from brokerages, real estate boards, and realtors who need to keep the myth up/

I find the numbers quite credible. — Garth

#4 Doug t on 02.01.17 at 5:20 pm

Toronto is a cesspool – be a zombie and join the nightmare commute once you pay through the nose for box to live in (if you call that living) – and in the end you can look back and say “wow I wasted my life for what”

#5 Long-Time Lurker on 02.01.17 at 5:22 pm

Gossamer craft. Piteous sausage. Great writing, Garth!

#6 For those about to flop... on 02.01.17 at 5:25 pm

These guys at 787 Slocan st.over paid in 2015 and now are just trying to get their money back,with a little bit for expenses.

They paid 1.025 and have it on for 1.199m

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMk5VNw==

https://www.estateblock.com/vancouver-real-estate/787-slocan-st-vancouver-bc-v5k-3y1-mls-r2124588-1

Second case study.

These guys at 505 Rupert st. paid 1.050m in the fall of 2016 and have even less wiggle room than the first guys currently asking 1.188m

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMlA4Wg==

https://www.estateblock.com/vancouver-real-estate/505-rupert-st-vancouver-bc-v5k-4k6-mls-r2126858-1

I don’t think we will truly know what happened to a lot of these guys until September/ October this year.

We’ll soon find out if they wear boxers or briefs…

M42BC

#7 bb on 02.01.17 at 5:25 pm

That means builders can make more $$$ than ever before building new houses on vacant land. Canada has plenty of land to build from.

Why aren’t the builders building more in the suburbs?

#8 Davie Boy on 02.01.17 at 5:26 pm

China just shut off the money. Inventory is going to sky rocket in Vancouver (and probably Toronto) soon.

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/chinas-capital-controls-could-crash-vancouver-real-estate/

#9 Lulu on 02.01.17 at 5:30 pm

And this little half of the house semi in Lesileville sold almost three months ago in the mid 400s and now back on the market for half a million asking, just like the one i post two days ago 24% within 3 months increase, lots of SFH been bought for speculation, but not living in it, that contribute to the shortage of supple, and I’m not surprised at all, some realtors will chime in money like buying lottery ticket and bid 200-300k over asking, let it sit a few months and put it back on the market with 10-30% increase within a few months and share the profit, better than us average joe work for a whole year of blood and sweat. Fair? Well… it’s kinda free market until government steps in…. and put all sorts of restriction on it and upheld the natural cycle of real estate, without the intervention our bubble pop ages ago. Because government doesn’t want to see the repeat of the 90’s collapse and for sure will get voted out in the next election. Who will take this blame and risk?

Here is the listing of this half mil semi

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Map.aspx#

#10 Lulu on 02.01.17 at 5:30 pm

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17752721/28-HARRIET-Street-Toronto-Ontario-M4L2E9-South-Riverdale

This is the link.

#11 Keith on 02.01.17 at 5:38 pm

Supply in East Vancouver – largest single category of listing on MLS start with the words “Land Assembly.” Most of these properties are offered at $2 million + and are priced well over the July 2016 assessment.

Now go hunting for a single family house to live in. Let’s throw in a few qualifications – not on a commuter street like Knight, or 12th avenue. Standard lot or close enough to have a bit of yard. Reasonably up to date kitchen and bathrooms, solidly built at least 1800 square feet. Not a rental property, future redevelopment potential, etc. Not asking for an HGTV dream home here.

You will find almost nothing on offer for less than $1.5 million. You will find very little for sale at all. There is a huge shortage of houses in Vancouver in decent shape suitable for a family. There is lots of product on the
market, try finding something to live in.

Almost nothing is priced to reflect the drop from the peak either, so the market is in fact still essentially frozen from the introduction of the buyers tax. Hey, 15% buyers tax, 14% drop in prices, sort of rhymes doesn’t it.

#12 Doug in London on 02.01.17 at 5:42 pm

As I said before in response to another post on this subject, if I had one of those overpriced houses in the GTA, I would first find a place to rent then cash in my winning lottery ticket.

#13 leinad on 02.01.17 at 5:46 pm

Only problem I see is I.m running out of houses to sell..lol…..its been one huge run since 96…..and we have not even done QE in Canada yet!Fed is paralyzed with the rest of the coven of central bankers….this show is just getting started…wait till hyperinflation takes hold…..watch the fire works unfold…be good we are your friends we come in peace lol

#14 For those about to flop... on 02.01.17 at 5:49 pm

I just want the real estate cartel to know that I share an iPad with my wife and it could possibly be Mrs Flop that is trying to show people what is happening in Vancouver and not Mr Flop.

She is an education assistant working with kids with learning disabilities,plus she votes NDP.

Disgusting behaviour.

Lock her up…

M42BC

#15 Ummmmmm on 02.01.17 at 5:57 pm

I blame Trump! It’s his fault!!!

#16 Pete from St. Cesaire on 02.01.17 at 6:09 pm

Why don’t many of the Toronto home owners just sell, take the windfall gains, and move to Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or rural Quebec (please don’t move here and shove our prices up) and live like millionaires. Only a small percentage of them really have to stay in Toronto to make their living. So many of these McMillionaires have lousy jobs and simply live off HELOCS. They should get out while the getting is good. Why be afraid of being priced out of the Toronto market? You would think that they would desire to live elsewhere anyway. None of the McMilionaires partake in the great things Toronto has to offer; the theatre district, the ROM, etc. Why be a debt slave in Toronto when you can live the life of the idly rich in Chambly or Hubbards.

#17 Goldie on 02.01.17 at 6:10 pm

I’ve looked at Nova Scotia many times but I always chicken out because of the winters and vicious wind storms. Beautiful in the summer though!

Today in Toronto, -3, Lunenburg, -1. Vicious? — Garth

#18 HoweStreet.com on 02.01.17 at 6:14 pm

Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
Foreign Buyer Tax That Is Effective.
CMHC using tainted statistics ?
http://www.howestreet.com/2017/01/30/foreign-buyer-tax-that-is-effective/

#19 BlogDog123 on 02.01.17 at 6:15 pm

Hey, Garth…
How about you do an analysis of one of the ‘dead’ regions for housing like Fredericton, NB. Lots o’ supply, many houses less than $150k and zero price appreciation over 10 years. Anybody who buys there should consider renting from an owner who cannot sell. No jobs, no growth in population = cheap housing.

#20 Wrk.dover on 02.01.17 at 6:24 pm

Sample NS couple I barely know. He operates equipment, she is clerk at 200 employee facility. Both make about 45 grand. House on view acreage is worth two years of combined income.

You decide.

#21 pathcontrolmonk on 02.01.17 at 6:26 pm

YVR West Side sales history last 10 years. I am sure Chinese New Year will make all the difference though.

January 2007 – 91
January 2008 – 74
January 2009 – 46
January 2010 – 101
January 2011 – 135
January 2012 – 86
January 2013 – 83
January 2014 – 112
January 2015 – 102
January 2016 – 134
January 2017 – 37

#22 RentYVR on 02.01.17 at 6:29 pm

Shocked you didn’t mention that the fed didn’t hike today!

Why? Nobody expected it. — Garth

#23 John on 02.01.17 at 6:29 pm

Imagine a market seizure in the GTA as has happened in Van. Look at the collapse in sales taxes scooped by the BC government! Heh, Wynne and Tory will be looking to tax everything that moves or sits: Tolls, HOV lanes, higher carbon taxes, no new Go Trains, highway expansion freezes etc. At some point, the Reno dudes will find that business tanks as folks can’t rationalize sinking more debt into house granitization with zero chance of higher return. Likely, at some choke point, highly leaveraged joints will be worth less than the debt owed……. then what????? Van2? Tokyo2?

#24 For those about to flop... on 02.01.17 at 6:33 pm

Keith #11

Have a look at this one and get back to me so I can see how close it is to your criteria.

They had it on for 1.4 then 1.3 now can’t sell it for 1.2…

I have more…

M42BC

http://www.normflockhart.com/listings/details.aspx?l=229

#25 Frank on 02.01.17 at 6:40 pm

Are you ready to admit you were too harsh on the foreign buyers tax in BC yet?

#26 mark on 02.01.17 at 6:40 pm

Fraser Valley properties are still in high demand gone in 24 hours with the best offer over asking!

#27 JSS on 02.01.17 at 6:44 pm

Two nice things:

1) Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP) announced 11% dividend increase. Rub tummy.

http://m.marketwired.com/press-release/brookfield-infrastructure-reports-2016-year-end-results-nyse-bip-2192505.htm

2) stock splits for some Canadian banks may be nearing
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/why-you-should-get-excited-if-canadian-banks-announce-stock-splits/article33852892/

#28 Raise Interest Rates on 02.01.17 at 6:45 pm

Then Toronterrible will have lots of supply!

#29 Fed-up on 02.01.17 at 6:53 pm

If you really want to make an epic move, sell today and buy in Nova Scotia. I hear they have Starbucks. The Internet. Cable. And wall-to-wall Liberals.

——————————————————————–

Throw in a rope and a stool and I’m in.

#30 Cowpoke on 02.01.17 at 7:01 pm

Fiat currency (counterfeit) have anything to do with escalating prices? Read your history. Kings have been known to counterfeit their currency and send agents around the world to distribute it. Just recently from China, in order to offset the contraction of the PBOC’s balance sheet due to capital outflows, China Engages in ‘Backdoor QE’.

#31 Dominoes Lining Up on 02.01.17 at 7:12 pm

I mentioned here two weeks ago another canary chirping loudly in the coalmine:

In the GTA municipalities, property tax delinquencies are spiking dramatically.

The number of property tax accounts currently in arrears or collections has spiked dramatically over the last four months. Those in ‘pre-collections’ status in terms of non-payment for months is also dramatically larger than one year ago.

When people have “invested” $500,000 in a condo or $900,000 in a slanty semi to rent out, and cannot come up with a $500 tax payment installment, there is trouble brewing.

Most GTA municipalities start collecting taxes in March or April. They are girding for a serious shortfall this year, hence why politicians like John Tory are starting to seriously sweat how they can afford local costs now that road tolls appear to have been killed.

Most of the delinquent accounts relate to multiple property owners, mostly of condos, but all categories are rising.

Most cities are trying to keep a lid on this news, but are freaking out behind closed doors.

I consider my sources of information about this trustworthy and impeccable, people who have worked in this area for many years.They are saying this is worse than the start of the meltdown in the 1990s.

Look out below…….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gq_bjaI0NTo

#32 Debtslavecreator on 02.01.17 at 7:16 pm

Tighten up your belts folks
Mortgage credit is in the early stages of a dramatic tightening. For all refinance mortgage apps as of today the rate is increased and stands at 3.09 and due BFS it goes up by .25
Other lenders are starting to move up
Purchase transaction rates stay the same as posted for now
Can you imagine when the 5 year yield moves above 2?
Lights out
Be careful out there

#33 Tony on 02.01.17 at 7:18 pm

The Chinese dudes tax if and when it hits Toronto will be known as “the big kabosh!” (the knockout blow). The tax that toppled an entire city seemingly overnight. It’ll be the day David slew Goliath.

#34 Nonplused on 02.01.17 at 7:18 pm

I think the land transfer tax is one major reason there is no supply in Toronto. Even if you want to move and are not priced out because you already own your home, you have to come up with an extra $50,000 or more to cover real estate commissions and this dastardly new tax. Add to that the fact you already pay property taxes and it’s simply outrageous. Who has $50,000 worth of after-tax money lying around just to move? And if the city thought the money would just come out of appreciation, they aren’t too smart. That can only happen once someone leaves the housing market for good. If a person is buying again, they have to get cash to pay the tax from somewhere, most likely by adding it to the mortgage like they already do with the commissions. So yes, Garth’s argument that people can’t afford to move is probably in many cases true even if they already own their own home.

I think many people are looking at it and going “$50,000??! I can get a new BMW for that. We’re not moving.”

This is just another fine example of what happens when government moves in to fix the problems that they themselves created in the first place. We get screwed even harder.

#35 Darryl on 02.01.17 at 7:20 pm

#29 Fed-up on 02.01.17 at 6:53 pm
If you really want to make an epic move, sell today and buy in Nova Scotia. I hear they have Starbucks. The Internet. Cable. And wall-to-wall Liberals.
——————————————————————–
Throw in a rope and a stool and I’m in.
=================================

Question
Is that because of being NS or because of the Liberals ?

Answer
Yes !

#36 Tony on 02.01.17 at 7:23 pm

Re: #29 Fed-up on 02.01.17 at 6:53 pm

Or if you’re of retirement age sell here and move to Calgary and rent. Watch your rent fall each yer and in the meantime buy a luxury used car in Calgary off of Kijiji for pennies on the dollar.

#37 Vancouver Brit on 02.01.17 at 7:43 pm

Sorry but lack of supply doesn’t create greater demand, lack of supply is a RESULT of greater demand.

Where that demand is coming from is the issue, not the lack of supply.

Why do you suddenly believe stats from realtors when it comes to the amount of foreign buyers? Seems very convenient for a person who typically trounces their stats as biased.

#38 greyswan on 02.01.17 at 7:44 pm

If Greater Vancouver is a buyers market….show me the
data!!?
Go on MLS or Craigslist can not find any quality listings as in the past or prices dropping in any way!!

YVR market seems to be frozen!?

#39 Hmmm on 02.01.17 at 7:46 pm

I suppose I am not too surprised by this as none of the Muslims I know are interested in Jihad. They go to work, pray in their mosques, and put their kids in soccer just like everyone else I know. Sure they have a few ideas I think are kooky, but so does everyone. Just type “flat earth” in to YouTube to see what I mean.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-01/boycotting-radical-islamic-nations

This does indicate, if it’s true, just how far left of main street the liberal media has become. The left lost the US election to perhaps the most unlikely candidate in history, and lost big, because they’ve lost touch. The people they claim to be representing want little to do with them.

Hillary won big in California, but all the loose nuts roll west, everyone knows that.

#40 I don't know on 02.01.17 at 7:49 pm

And to think, doomers on this blog have for years been calling for TO RE to melt, but look what’s happened instead. TO RE is golden. And will continue to be for quite some time. The reasons why are irrelevant. So what if supply is low. OK, maby it is low, but only low compared to the demand. You could also state that demand is high. Regardless, TO RE is going higher.

That was impressive. — Garth

#41 AJ on 02.01.17 at 7:50 pm

Lulu- I saw that little Riverdale house back in 2008 or 2009. It was $149k. I remember milking it over wondering if it was worth that much. Then I saw it again, I think two years ago for $299. I was flabbergasted. Guess the fun never stops at that place.

#42 S.Bby on 02.01.17 at 7:53 pm

#30 Cowpoke

North Korea has been counterfeiting US currency for years; apparently they are very good at it. They run it through China for distribution and use the proceeds to pay for their industrial/military complex.

#43 Chico on 02.01.17 at 8:04 pm

#17 Goldie on 02.01.17 at 6:10 pm

I’ve looked at Nova Scotia many times but I always chicken out because of the winters and vicious wind storms. Beautiful in the summer though!

Today in Toronto, -3, Lunenburg, -1. Vicious? — Garth

—-

Our family of 5 packed up and left the wet coast 10 months ago. By chance, I happened to recently check out the coldest weather in the history of Canada, and more than 90% of it is in western Canada. The winters are very nice compared to the prairies, which I spent almost 3 decades on. Also compared to the gvrd, there is this wonderful thing called “the sun” during the winter.

Some other things to consider about Nova Scotia from the eyes of a life long westerner…there are few if any straight roads! I love to drive and this province is fabulous for hopping in the car with my wife, picking up a coffee, and simply seeing where the road takes us.

The air is super clean.

Things move slow…Canada’s Jamaica, is what I call it.

Vicious wind storms? Our power was out for one hour so far this winter. On the wet coast, power outages happen several times a year and last for hours or days, depending where you’re located. The town manager, a former big smoke, southern Ontario native, said that power outages are almost non existent on our part of the province (north), and he’s been here about 10 years.

There’s a lot of MacDonald’s, not the burger kind.

It’s one of the best decisions we’ve ever made as a family.

#44 conan on 02.01.17 at 8:09 pm

There is a new sheriff in town and his name is Trump.

https://apnews.com/0b3f5db59b2e4aa78cdbbf008f27fb49

As far as I know, the only way to get Mexico to pay for the wall, is to invade them, and take something worth 14 B. I don’t think Mexico is going to cut this guy a check.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZTpLvsYYHw

#45 Astronaft911 on 02.01.17 at 8:14 pm

Houses in Calgary within $450-600K do sell, despite the impression one might have after reading the blog. Priced right houses sell within days. Some stay for few months on the market, but after a reduction of 10-20K go quick.

#46 Brian Ripley on 02.01.17 at 8:15 pm

Rental Stock is rising off the December lows in the biggest inventory metros of Toronto and Montreal:

http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html#Rentals

The 4 other cites on the chart (Vanc, Calg, Edmo and Otta) have shrinking rental inventories.

Not only have chronic low rates and high transfer costs led to housing being too expensive to trade, rental stock is also expensive. I suspect we have reached a limit to what tenants will agree to subsidize their landlords with.

Tenants need to behave like purchasers and test the convictions of landlords with respect to valuations.

In a market correction, we are going to be looking at fundamentals again.

#47 The whole country ... on 02.01.17 at 8:16 pm

Sick .

A prime minister that is out of his league

Anyone buying the tsx at these levels ? Good luck

#48 My parents on 02.01.17 at 8:22 pm

Have a house in downtown that could sell for over $2,000,000 no problem . These refuse to sell! It generates fantastic monthly cash flow . I have explained that a 10% correction and you’re out $200,000. Doesn’t phase them : tangible assets . The market ? lol they wouldn’t touch with Monopoly money

Hell , I thought the top was at $1.5 mil-needless to say they likely think I’m an idiot

#49 Don Regan on 02.01.17 at 8:24 pm

Where I live on Vancouver West Side, taking into account
a three block wide by seven block long area. Tear down
houses went for between $3 and $3.8 million last year.
Out of the ten that were there last fall, there are 7 still for sale and 8 under construction. The newer houses would
have to get above $5 million to break even. Yes, I do see
Chinese going to the open houses but so far very few takers.

#50 Keith on 02.01.17 at 8:27 pm

For those …. #24 5251 St. Catherines was assessed at
$1,362,000 July 1 2016. If it was originally listed at 1.4, it was overpriced. At 1.3, still overpriced. It’s sitting on the market because it’s a stale listing.

I wasn’t looking for HGTV type finishes, but fake wood panelling and wood ceilings went out of style 35 years ago. Homes in Vancouver have a revenue suite, so factor in 100k to legally finish the basement.

It’s in a decent neighbourhood, but at 98 feet the lot is a fair ways from standard, properties under 100 feet long are pretty much an outlier in Vancouver. I would characterize it as scraping the minimum of my standard, but most people would be turned off by even the cosmetics of this property. Factor in the huge hassle of building a basement suite, even for someone with serious DIY skills this is not an appealing property to the vast majority of todays buyers. Didn’t see any pictures of the yard. If you want a garage, and or deck/bbq space, there won’t be a lot of garden left.

It’s taking 15% less land than a standard lot, no basement suite for revenue and decades dated cosmetics to come in at 1.2 million. Let’s see some more examples.

#51 Lulu on 02.01.17 at 8:29 pm

#41 AJ Yes, it sold 150k in 2008 and it listed in 2012 280k, but it didn’t sell and off the market and three months ago listed at 369k..sold in 7 days with multiple offers in the mid 400, and now asking 519k… just insane. pure speculate.

The other half No30 sold maybe 2 or 3 years ago 375k with fully renovated plus a usable basement and no parking, 28 got a legal front pad, but still the price is just so out of whack, inside need a complete overhaul, size is small tho 490sf crawl space.

I love this little semi but the price is just too crazy. I’m not that desperate..lol

#52 bigtowne on 02.01.17 at 8:37 pm

The working people who moved to Toronto in the 40’s and 50’s usually rented the upstairs or downstairs of a single family home back in the day and shared the home with the owner. At that time people had no birth control so it was normal to have more than one kid per family so crowding was normal.

We just moved out of Toronto to a small town two hours out where the rent is cut in half…while we lived in Toronto we lived in a tiny rental. We luxuriated with the air conditioning and the underground parking but we lived in subpar conditions and it was very stressful for noise and no space and no place to entertain or eat…so you can live in Toronto but you will make major sacrifices in very basic housing so you can afford to eat.

#53 Barb on 02.01.17 at 8:43 pm

“…The White House actually said this week the slaughter of Muslins in Quebec by a local white Trump supporter shows how dangerous those pesky Islam guys are.”

————————-

Proof of his insanity.
Bloody frightening.

#54 The Totally Unbiased, Highly Intelligent, Rational Observer on 02.01.17 at 8:44 pm

The Mainstream Media’s continuing shameless attempts to attract attention to itself in any way it can (to keep itself from becoming totally irrelevant and totally ignored) have caused it to scrape up some amateur psychologists from off the bottom of the “bucket of degenerates” to say that President Donald J. Trump is “mentally ill” and that he is suffering from “narcissistic personality disorder.”

Disappointingly, but not surprisingly, they totally misunderstand and misapply all the psycho-babble stuff about “narcissistic personality disorder [being] a mental disorder in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance….” These self-styled amateur psychos just don’t get it. Donald Trump does not have “an inflated sense of his own importance.” Donald Trump really is the most important and powerful man in the whole wide world today. It is not narcissistic at all of The Donald to think that he is the most important man on earth when in fact he really is the most important man on earth.

President Donald Trump actually said it was sobering to be handed the codes to launch a nuclear attack. Of course, this just sounds like false modesty coming from that humble man. Donald Trump is always sober. He does not drink alcohol. In disturbing contrast, his enemies without a cause always sound like they are high on illegal drugs. It is so nice and comforting and reassuring to know that we can sleep safely at night, without a care in the world, now that the nuclear codes are safely in the hands of a sensible and stable man like President Trump. If these codes ever fell into the hands of the Mainstream Media’s amateur psychos, their dangerous little bit of poorly understood psycho knowledge would definitely cause them to totally misjudge every other world leader as well, and bring about World War III.

#55 For those about to flop... on 02.01.17 at 9:04 pm

O.k Keith let’s test the top end of your 1.5m budget.

It is a lot nicer and modern than the last one.

This one was built in 2009 and was bought for 1.37 to flip.Its back on for 1.651

If they are serious about selling in this market 1.55 gets the job done…

M42BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/6450-st-george-street
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMjZVSg==

P.s there are 4 flips nearby where I live that were bought for 1.3/1.4m last year and have had serious time and dollars spent on them and they are back on the market for 1.6/1.7m and have had reductions and still no takers.

#56 ANON on 02.01.17 at 9:04 pm

then what????? Van2? Tokyo2?

Detroit 2

#57 Hotdogs from Heaven on 02.01.17 at 9:04 pm

#31 Dominoes Lining Up on 02.01.17 at 7:12 pm

I mentioned here two weeks ago another canary chirping loudly in the coalmine:

In the GTA municipalities, property tax delinquencies are spiking dramatically.

The number of property tax accounts currently in arrears or collections has spiked dramatically over the last four months. Those in ‘pre-collections’ status in terms of non-payment for months is also dramatically larger than one year ago.

When people have “invested” $500,000 in a condo or $900,000 in a slanty semi to rent out, and cannot come up with a $500 tax payment installment, there is trouble brewing.
———————————————————-

It would great if governments would provide some statistics on this as it would truly be that canary in the coal mine that you mention.

However, there is another indicator that is starting to pop up more and more, especially in the more expensive condos of downtown Toronto and that is late or non payment of monthly maintenance payments.

If you don’t pay your property taxes then the city takes your condo unit.
If you don’t pay your mortgage then the bank takes your condo unit.
If you don’t pay your property insurance then the insurer cancels your policy and the bank calls in your mortgage and takes your condo unit because you must have your condo insured.
If you don’t pay your maintenance then the condo corporation’s board of directors takes months and months to get you to pay and if it starts legal proceedings it could take a couple of years to get you out and for them to seize and sell your unit.

That’s why the first thing to get cut back is the maintenance payment and it’s the true canary in the coal mine to watch.

Remember when Garth posted a photo of a notice from a mid town Toronto luxury condo a few months ago that the management was instituting a $50 fee for bounced maintenance cheques due to the increase in them? It’s happening.

Also, AirBnB made a big deal of how important they are to condo owners in Toronto last summer saying that without owners being able to use them for short term rentals more than 600 condo owners would have been forced to sell because they could not afford the expense of ownership.

#58 Trumpocalypse2017 on 02.01.17 at 9:07 pm

War around the corner?

http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/01/politics/michael-flynn-condemns-iran-actions/index.html

Doomsday clock reset.

https://www.engadget.com/2017/01/28/the-doomsday-clock-is-the-closest-to-midnight-since-1953/

Horror is just around the corner.

Hug your children tonight.

#59 Smoking Man on 02.01.17 at 9:07 pm

DELETED

#60 John in Mtl on 02.01.17 at 9:09 pm


#16 Pete from St. Cesaire on 02.01.17 at 6:09 pm

Why don’t many of the Toronto home owners just sell, take the windfall gains, and move to Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, or rural Quebec (please don’t move here and shove our prices up) and live like millionaires.

Yeah, Pete; don’t invite them here, it is still a relatively sane market and we like it that way! Few would come anyways, it seems learning french is too hard.

#61 45north on 02.01.17 at 9:24 pm

US real estate:

Mark Hanson makes the case that US real estate is now a bubble which is bigger and badder than the first bubble.

https://mcaf.ee/6yxh9t

( the original url was so long )

the people who voted for Trump did so out of a sense of economic frustration. If Mark Hanson is right they haven’t seen nothin. There’s nothing that makes people think they’re hard done by like the price of their house going down.

in Canada, the price of our houses is about to go down. Leading to a sense of economic frustration. Like in the States.

#62 45north on 02.01.17 at 9:32 pm

Lulu: And this little half of the house semi in Lesileville

28 Harriet Street in Toronto

you gotta be kidding! You cannot build on it because it’s a semi!

#63 45north on 02.01.17 at 9:48 pm

Dominoes: In the GTA municipalities, property tax delinquencies are spiking dramatically.

The number of property tax accounts currently in arrears or collections has spiked dramatically over the last four months. Those in ‘pre-collections’ status in terms of non-payment for months is also dramatically larger than one year ago.

that got my attention. John Tory has proposed a solution but the Province overruled him:

Wynne’s veto of Toronto road toll plan is an act of political cowardice

http://mcaf.ee/h2jrcn

( the original url was too long )

#64 the Jaguar on 02.01.17 at 9:51 pm

Can we withdraw the term “foreign buyer” and replace it with “offshore money” to provide a little clarity? It is quite true that folks who do not have permanent residency status in Canada are able to purchase homes just as permanent residents are able to do so, even if they are very new permanent residents to Canada. Both are also able to obtain mortgages from Canadian banks. Both of those groups sometimes arrive in this country with inexplicable amounts of cash. The real and more interesting issue is, (especially in the context of ‘dudes from China’ as it applies to the GVA ) where is all the money is coming from? Is it all ( the cash) leaving China in a legitimate and legal way? Apparently the People’s Republic of China has not thought so for some time, hence the extradition treaties they are seeking with most western nations (especially Canada, Australia, US, and the Netherlands). The PRC is seriously pissed and looking to return funds to the treasury and to their country so it can be spent there on good and services. In the current environment Canada is reminded that it cannot put all its economic eggs in one USA basket. China is a big market and all signs point to the T2 government wanting to forge greater economic ties. Seems reasonable that one of the requests to seal any deal with PRC will involve Canada signing one of those extradition treaties. Could get unpleasant for some who have forgotten the long hand, excellent memory, and steely determination of those who feel dishonoured and want their money back. In some cultures ‘saving face’ means everything.

#65 Keith on 02.01.17 at 9:56 pm

#55 For those … I think with July assessment at 1.65, and about a 10% correction this should sell close to 1.5.
The lot is again undersized at 99 feet, but it’s rare to see a relatively new house that isn’t priced much higher in the market.

So there’s this one, + four nearby overpriced flips that may fall within my criteria. Thousands and thousands of people in the lower mainland would live in a house in Vancouver, if they could. You have found a handful, there isn’t a hundred that would fit my criteria. There is more on the market than before, but there is still no affordable supply. We have a long way to go.

#66 WUL on 02.01.17 at 9:59 pm

YVR’s real estate numbers are startling.

For inexplicable reasons, I just spun through Alberta’s Condominium Property Act and an FAQ promulgated by the Leg in Oilerville. Goodness! My bet is that the vast bulk of buyers have no idea of the morass they are entering.

As a result of having evolved into a Blog Dog (perhaps devolved) I told my daughter to never, ever buy a condo. I will repeat that advice every time I see her and insist in my will that the advice appear in my obituary.

#67 joblo on 02.01.17 at 10:00 pm

“And wall-to-wall Liberals.”

Spell chek, Lieberals.
What a disaster, leader should keep mouth shut!

“Because it’s 2015!”
Here ya go, will throw you under the bus.

#68 joblo on 02.01.17 at 10:00 pm

Disgraceful!

#69 InvestorsFriend on 02.01.17 at 10:07 pm

Supply should increase?

#7 bb on 02.01.17 at 5:25 pm
That means builders can make more $$$ than ever before building new houses on vacant land. Canada has plenty of land to build from.

Why aren’t the builders building more in the suburbs?

***************************************
Good question. Theory suggests that ever higher prices will cause more home owners to decide to sell. And builders should respond by looking for ways to add to supply. And buyers should start to substitute high-rise for single family.

Unless the laws of supply and demand have changed , this must be happening in Toronto.

In theory, supply and demand are always equal and the prices change to make it so.

#70 asinine on 02.01.17 at 10:09 pm

assessment 2016- $12million
Assessment 2017-$44 million
http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2017/02/01/robson-street-businesses-hit-with-200-per-cent-tax-increase.html

#71 Freedom First on 02.01.17 at 10:12 pm

#57 Hotdogs from Heaven

Yes. Very good Post!

The Devil is always in the details. It is these reasons, and more, why more money has been lost in RE than all other assets combined. By far.-Warren Buffett.

People want what what they want when they want it.

#72 Bob loblaw on 02.01.17 at 10:13 pm

Great work with these stats, whoever ran the numbers! This is the kind of data that needs to be realised to the public, not useless Frankenumbers like the oft used benchmark price

#73 BS on 02.01.17 at 10:15 pm

Bonus Stat #1. Dollar Value of Houses Sold in January: $494 million in 2017 vs $1.4 billion in 2016

Wow. Sales dollars down by 65% year over year. Can you say crash.

#74 Freedom First on 02.01.17 at 10:20 pm

#60 John in Montreal

Yes. we need to go to being an official 1 language country, English, and to also dump the metric system.

Both will surely be required when the Donald requires Canada become a part of the U.S. if we wish to do any business south of the 49th.

#75 BS on 02.01.17 at 10:32 pm

On that note, let’s welcome some original analysis by a thoroughly knowledgeable Blog Dog who wishes anonymity lest he be hung like a piteous sausage from the Port Mann bridge. “In the coming 24 hours, the REBGV will issue a press release with a whole bunch of massaged numbers and fictitious benchmarks for January,” he says. “Here are some real numbers from the board’s own database.”

I just want to thank whomever compiled these numbers and sent them to Garth. They are pure gold. It would be nice to see them as a monthly basis if the RE cartel doesn’t track you down and take you out that is. They must be freaking.

#76 Dominoes Lining Up on 02.01.17 at 10:45 pm

#57 Hotdogs from Heaven

You make an interesting point. Unpaid condo fees could also be an important indicator of distress. I don’t live in one, perhaps others have some knowledge of these in the GTA too.

As for property taxes, my sources in the GTA tell me there has also been a large increase in what are called transfers to taxes. This occurs when someone does not pay their waste management/water bills on time, and they are put on the property tax account to make collections ultimately easier through a forced sale if necessary. Imagine that so many “homeowners” cannot even afford to pay a $350 water bill every few months, and you get another glimpse of what is going on!

People are obviously running out of balls to juggle with, like HELOCs and LOCs and some bills just aren’t getting paid. While they fool themselves that they are still “building equity”.

Same sort of juggling for local governments, and it’s soon gonna hit the fan in places like Toronto if they cannot get revenue streams like road tolls or something else.

45north makes a good point about the “political cowardice” of Wynne, denying Toronto road tolls.

But that sort of political cowardice works on all sides.

Wynne doesn’t want to alienate 905 voters she will need next election, the ones who would be paying a lot of tolls.

But Tory is also a coward. If he only had the backbone to simply raise Toronto property taxes to comparable 905 levels, his fiscal problems would be solved.

But Tory does not want to alienate the lower income and senior homeowners who are reliable voters but terrible financial managers and cannot afford more taxes. (Those whiny people should take a lesson from Garth, liquidate and invest their assets and enjoy life. They have only their own financial illiteracy to blame for being house-poor)

So he chickens out, and now has Wynne to blame.

The two of them are actually soulmates when it comes to political cowardice.

#77 Piet on 02.01.17 at 10:45 pm

As one having some familiarity with private schooling in Victoria, it has been interesting watching the number of high school students from mainland China in Canadian private schools go from nothing fifteen or so years ago to a tsunami at present. Over this period it became evident that the parents of many of these students own real estate in Vancouver. Today I learned that among the parents of Chinese students enrolled in private schools in Victoria there is an increasing preference to own real estate in Victoria as compared to Vancouver.

The Chinese international students studying in Canadian high schools over the past decade or so have tended to head to the US for their tertiary schooling. In recent months, however, there has been a trend to rule out higher education in the US due to the perception that Trump poses unacceptable risk. Canadian universities, as the alternative option to studying in the US, will benefit from this trend.

#78 Ace Goodheart on 02.01.17 at 10:46 pm

https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/02/01/trump-tax-proposal-could-push-bank-of-canada-toward-quantitative-easing.html

Or the reason for high house prices, at least in inner City areas, could be the one I pointed out about a year ago. That being, delayed currency devaluation.

Looks like we are about to get actual currency devaluation, while the bankrupt USA tries out North Korean Juche as a means to economic revival.

Once the US military money dries up, and they can’t borrow any more, the only step left is protectionism. Turn off the taps, close the borders, find a bogey man and try to force bored multinational corporations to produce where it is the most expensive and labour is the most organised.

We’ve been hollowed out. There is nothing left but expensive houses, devalued money, and the realisation that two or three Asian countries are now bankrolling most of the planet.

And the Americans elected an ultra right wing billionaire who can’t think properly and who is advised by alt-right supremists.

Hollowed out. Totally. Just wait until someone decides to count the beans.

#79 Lost in Oakville on 02.01.17 at 11:03 pm

Here in Oakville….1,150 sq foot 1.5 bath townhouse listed for 450k sold for 557k

Means nothing if the realtor listed low to get multiples. — Garth

#80 WUL on 02.01.17 at 11:03 pm

Furthermore, on a daily basis I visit the website Courts of British Columbia for entertainment and glance at the recent decisions of the Supreme Court of BC. A steady flow of trial results between Strata Corp 12345 and Hapless Owner. One of BC’s few growth industries with millions of $ flowing into lawyers’ pockets over disputatious nonsense involving parking spots and meal preparation smells. Good.

#81 TLG on 02.01.17 at 11:06 pm

It’s cold outside. I don’t see aything melting. When the average family earning +or- $150k in Vancouver can buy the average 3 bedroom rancher costing $450k I will consider it melted and corrected. But it ain’t gonna happen. Ever. It is different this time cuz the government manipulates both supply and demand.

#82 For those about to flop... on 02.01.17 at 11:14 pm

Keith, the four flips are all within a couple of blocks of my house,I you really want to get a half decent house in east van for 1.5 …no problem.

Check out the one at the end of this message.

Heck there is even a small brand new one built in 2016 for 1.499

You might want to check out …

5807 Sophia st.

2956 6th Ave.

As I wrote in a post the other day….the first waves of the tsunami are just hitting the beach now…

M42BC

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwM0ZBOQ==

#83 cramar on 02.01.17 at 11:15 pm

#17 Goldie on 02.01.17 at 6:10 pm

I’ve looked at Nova Scotia many times but I always chicken out because of the winters and vicious wind storms. Beautiful in the summer though!

Today in Toronto, -3, Lunenburg, -1. Vicious? — Garth

———————-

Plus 5 and beautiful sunshine today in Leamington. Housing reasonable. But in the interest of full disclosure. . .no Starbucks! Hummm. Maybe good business opportunity. Naw! I’m retired.

#84 Foreign Capital on 02.01.17 at 11:18 pm

Based on following these posts, I understand that:

* Official real estate numbers are ‘massaged and manipulated’ when new trends conflict with the industry’s narrative of prices always go up (hence the Frankenumber)

* However, official real estate numbers on foreign capital purchases are valid and to be trusted. This is the case even when the Vancouver real estate industry constantly lied about foreign capital buying less than 5% of the market. They were shown to be lying when the provincial government’s own data showed 15% and in some communities like Richmond 20%.

* That Vancouver prices spiked 25% plus in one year without the aid of foreign capital. But when the foreign buyers tax was implemented, sales absolutely plunge 59% and the high end market (the segment most loved by foreign capital) gets absolutely creamed.

This does not add up and looks like cognitive dissonance.

Within a year, it will be shown that foreign capital has been a driver in other parts of the country like GTA and Victoria. Those markets will continue to be on fire until decision makers wake up and curb speculation by foreign capital.

It is facile, and erroneous, to blame an entire market’s activity on one factor. But if it makes you feel good to reduce complexity to soma, go ahead. You are in good company. — Garth

#85 common sense on 02.01.17 at 11:43 pm

#78 Ace

Best post of the year here to date….USA has no choice but to pull back, reset over a decade allowing everyone else to do their own thing….the party is over.

Friend reported from Ladner B.C. (who just sold and bought) that “it’s coming back up a little after dying last summer yet not where it was…). He is very happy he got out and downsized….

#86 Barb on 02.01.17 at 11:44 pm

“…Why aren’t the builders building more in the suburbs?”

——————————————-

The council in my municipality addressed this recently by promoting “infill”. Basically it allows new homes and laneway variances/building officer discretion to increase density in urban areas where infrastructure already exists.

Windfall on property taxes without the muni having to extend sewer/water lines.

#87 VIT on 02.01.17 at 11:58 pm

DELETED

#88 Adam on 02.02.17 at 12:08 am

#54

Are you insane? Trump just threatened war with mexico over the phone and iran on twitter in the last 48 hours. He also just screwed up his first mission killing a marine, wounding 3 others and killing 15 civilians. They also had to blow up their own 70million dollar copter. Your saying its sobering to know trump has the codes and liberals would have started ww3?

#89 Linda on 02.02.17 at 12:13 am

Crazy prices still, despite the melt from last year. As for supply, I wonder what would happen if the frenzied buyers simply rented instead. Some posts have stated rental accommodation is hard to come by. Yet this blog mentions huge condo numbers coming online in Toronto. If those condos are being bought by speculators, then presumably they’d be happy to rent them out. Of course, a 600 square foot box in the sky isn’t going to match the SFH, regardless of whether it is in a ‘bad’ part of town or is in a state of disrepair. But good golly, the prices being charged make buying a fool’s choice right now.

#90 Not 1st on 02.02.17 at 12:53 am

Nova Scotia? Seriously? Have you seen their winters?

Everybody knows Calgary is the emerging RE gem in the country especially commercial property.

#91 For those about to flop... on 02.02.17 at 1:22 am

This one is not Pink Snow but something is going down in Coquitlam.

This house is assessed at 1.686m and have now dropped it to a massive 38% below this number.

Things are going to get kooky…

M42BC

986 Jarvis St Coquitlam

Oct 12:$1,348,888
Feb 1: $1,049,900
Change: – 298988.00 -22%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzWE5GRQ==

#92 Slow down on 02.02.17 at 1:33 am

A Vancouver realtor just leased a new Ford today, said he turned back th Range Rover as he needs to become more practical as income is way down, says he sold his home and will rent for a few years

#93 Robbie on 02.02.17 at 2:22 am

“soma”…is that a reference to Brave New World? Seems like that would explain some of the readers’ comments on your blog. :-)

#94 416 RE only 2 Events on 02.02.17 at 2:57 am

Only 2 events have cooled off 416 RE in the past:

1. Double digit mortgage rates.

2. Severe recession.

The rest about what will, might happen is minutiae.

#95 For those about to flop... on 02.02.17 at 3:13 am

I think I have seen this Kurt Russell movie before.

Big trouble in little Coquitlam.

These guys got carried away and paid 1.5m last summer at the summit and now are in all sorts of bother and are likely to have to eat some Pink Snow.

It’s hard to see any of these people not voting for the B.C Liberals…

M42BC

1059 Milford Avenue, Coquitlam

Nov 21:$1,689,900
Feb 1: $1,599,000
Change: – 90900.00 -5%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzWE01Sw==

#96 Original dave on 02.02.17 at 6:27 am

Is there any truth to post #31 about property tax delinquincies?

#97 DoomandGloomer on 02.02.17 at 6:43 am

#16 Pete From St. Cesaire

“Why be a debt slave in Toronto when you can live the life of the idly rich in Chambly or Hubbards.”
——————————————————————–

Because it’s Quebec.
Because it’s Nova Scotia.
There is a reason it’s cheap.

Typical Toronto myopia. BTW, still waiting for you to make good on that million-dollar bet. Chicken. — Garth

#98 neo on 02.02.17 at 6:59 am

#76 Dominoes Lining Up on 02.01.17 at 10:45 pm

I got a better indicator for a ground zero. The number on cash advance places per capita. That winner goes to Brampton. I counted the number of those places along Queen Street from Airport Road to Kennedy Street and the number was 30. That will be ground zero when this house of cards falls apart. I can also guarantee if property tax payments are becoming an issue Brampton is front and centre as well.

#99 neo on 02.02.17 at 7:01 am

According to Zolo.ca the crash in Vancouver has already begun. Prices are down over 22% YOY and 14% MOM.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends

#100 Jetfixer on 02.02.17 at 7:12 am

I’m out in the east of GTA and an MPAC assessment came in for my landlord. I’m curious to know how much it went up by… Property taxes have to be starting to become an issue. They were already expensive out that way to begin with.

#101 neo on 02.02.17 at 7:43 am

#94 416 RE only 2 Events on 02.02.17 at 2:57 am
Only 2 events have cooled off 416 RE in the past:

1. Double digit mortgage rates.

2. Severe recession.

The rest about what will, might happen is minutiae.

*******************************************

The only minutiae is stating we need to go back to double digit interest rates. That was back when the average price was $220,000 in the GTA. There was also no such thing as a HELOC in 1989-1990. Mortgages are double, triple and quadruple that now. All things are relative. Even a 2% rise in interest rates will roll this thing over.

#102 jess on 02.02.17 at 7:57 am

….”Tax expert Lee Sheppard says this is how big property owners do business. “Everyone with a big commercial building does that. Everyone,” Sheppard told CNN. “I mean this is how the system works.” ”

…” the newly opened Trump International Hotel in Washington D.C., where the district’s assessor originally valued Trump’s interest in the property for tax purposes at $98 million. Trump wants it assessed at $28 million, according to court documents.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/25/news/companies/donald-trump-property-tax-fights/

#103 45north on 02.02.17 at 8:54 am

For inexplicable reasons, I just spun through Alberta’s Condominium Property Act

you might have seen this before. It’s about Toronto condominiums: CBC the Condo Game:

http://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2419776936

#104 45north on 02.02.17 at 8:55 am

Washed Up Lawyer

#105 Tony on 02.02.17 at 8:58 am

Looks like everyone on Earth already knows the jobs report for this Friday as of noon Wednesday. The print even with an ADP report of 246 thousand looks destined to come in well below 100,000. Dollar sells off yesterday at noon after the huge ADP number. This will be a twist of fate as the Friday jobs number will be reported well below the actual figure the opposite of what we saw under Obama.

#106 45north on 02.02.17 at 9:30 am

Neo: I got a better indicator for a ground zero. The number on cash advance places per capita. That winner goes to Brampton.

the same Brampton which will be the last to tank?

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2010/09/23/road-kill/#comment-56664

#107 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 02.02.17 at 9:31 am

“…The White House actually said this week the slaughter of Muslins in Quebec by a local white Trump supporter shows how dangerous those pesky Islam guys are.”

The media is quite mixed on this, but “one of the suspects was of Moroccan origin”. Not that those in Morocco are not supporters of Trump or White or not local.

Also, I started noticing a disturbing trend in the media and online (inc seeping into your site Garth) of “them vs us” and “Trump or Not Trump”… please stop this prejudice.

Trump was DEMOCRATICLY ELLECTED. Social media/racism/Prejudice/Hate won’t unelect him and if it does, it is a world most would be ashamed to be part of.

Whether you like it or not, Spicer’s Monday presser in the White House contained the sentiment I expressed. Shameful and ideologically-motivated. — Garth

#108 Euro observer on 02.02.17 at 9:31 am

#4 Doug t on 02.01.17 at 5:20 pm
Toronto is a cesspool – be a zombie and join the nightmare commute once you pay through the nose for box to live in (if you call that living) – and in the end you can look back and say “wow I wasted my life for what”
————————-

You mean:
– spending the weekends at the crowded malls
-or going to Niagara (yay!) over the nightmare that QEW is in the summer
-or going to the ‘majestic’ Blue mountain/Collingwood with condos priced from the low 300 k
– while spending 3.5-4 h in the average daily commute (2 ways, if lucky)

is not sufficient super-excitement for the zomby GTA population?

Ah, and I forgot the other popular activities
– the annual upgrade of the house which is actually an ‘investment’ as it increases it’s value
– the browsing (the most expensive and unreliably slow on the planet) internet in the smelly basement.

#109 slippery cricket on 02.02.17 at 9:44 am

Average sale price for January 2017 is 1.58 million….holy crap who has that kind of income? Wow I am too old to see the value in that.’ A cynic is a person who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing’……guess I’m a cynic.

#110 milleniallmoose on 02.02.17 at 9:52 am

Parents just sold their suburban digs in Durham for 900k and are moving out east. They bought a little B&B and are running their own business instead of being GTA wage slaves. Why more people don’t do this I have no idea…

#111 45north on 02.02.17 at 10:03 am

Dominoes: But political cowardice works two ways

Wynne doesn’t want to alienate 905 voters she will need next election, the ones who would be paying a lot of tolls.

But Tory is also a coward. If he only had the backbone to simply raise Toronto property taxes to comparable 905 levels, his fiscal problems would be solved.

you make a good point and Toronto property taxes should be raised. Big cities ( like Ottawa ) limit increases in property tax to 2% so a 10% increase would be yuge! Yuge! It’s gona take City, Provincial and Federal funding. It’s gona cost a lot to buy the property for the new subways. In time and money. The Province needs to limit the cost. Expanding the Toronto subway system is at the limit of political will. Municipally, provincially and federally. I give Toronto City Council credit for putting itself on the line.

#112 Trumpocalypse2017 on 02.02.17 at 10:10 am

War with China?

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/steve-bannon-were-going-to-war-in-the-south-china-sea-no-doubt/ar-AAmwy1f?li=AAggFp5&ocid=mailsignout

The problem with Trump and his circle is they have lived in a world of mere speculation and hyperbole, all about themselves.

Very soon, other nations will start acting, making their own decisions, tossing them wildcards, with their own reactions to the crazy trial balloons that the alt-right presidency keeps tossing up.

That’s when reality hits.

Trump will not be able to control things then.

War with China in “5-10 years”?

More like months, maybe weeks, once China is fully engaged in this.

Trumpocalypse is coming.

Don’t blink.

#113 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 02.02.17 at 10:13 am

Whether you like it or not, Spicer’s Monday presser in the White House contained the sentiment I expressed. Shameful and ideologically-motivated. — Garth

———————————–

I think you missed the main point.

“I started noticing a disturbing trend in the media and online (inc seeping into your site Garth) of “them vs us” and “Trump or Not Trump”… please stop this prejudice.

Trump was DEMOCRATICLY ELLECTED. Social media/racism/Prejudice/Hate won’t unelect him and if it does, it is a world most would be ashamed to be part of.|

History is littered with the democratic election of wingniuts. — Garth

#114 Stock Picker on 02.02.17 at 10:15 am

#3 Hmmmmm….excellent article and thx Garth for not deleting. It’s very true that western countries are not doing themselves or moderate Muslims any favours by pandering to the extremes of Islam. Currently most incoming Muslims are completely clueless about the life they’ll experience in the host countries. They’ve been indoctrinated into a state of mind where all Christians are the enemy. They concentrate in ghettos where the hear more of the same. In the Koran there are 114 chapters…109 of which reference killing all opposition to Islam…..in all sorts of nasty ways. If our politically correct liberals don’t educate the youth coming in and show them a way out of the medieval hole they’ve been raised in then there will be no moderation in Muslims behaviours for yet another generation and we’re sure to have more violence. The newcomers must be openly educated and not just stuffed into mosques and religious schools where jihad is alive and well among the indoctrinated adults who there doesn’t seem to be any hope for. We can’t have children thinking it’s OK to support gay killing, stoning, genital mutilation, beheading, bombing, seventy two virgin holidays or anything like that. By all means bring on immigrants…but keep n mind that Muslims are in no way similar culturally to any immigrants in the past and integration is a religious taboo to them….and a welfare cheque every month won’t magically turn them into good little Canadians within the time it takes to fly across the Atlantic Ocean.

#115 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 10:35 am

WhiteHouse Spicer’s Comments:


“This is another senseless act of violence that cannot be tolerated,” White House spokesman Sean Spicer said.

“It’s a terrible reminder of why we must remain vigilant and why the president is taking steps to be proactive rather than reactive when it comes to our nation’s safety and security.”

Garth’s interpretation of this:


“…The White House actually said this week the slaughter of Muslims in Quebec by a local white Trump supporter shows how dangerous those pesky Islam guys are.”

In other news:

Trump amazingly walks on water.

MSM headlines: ‘Trump Can’t Swim and is anti-H20 bigot.

Wow. Just wow.

Old joke. Tired. The fact the WH said Trump must be “proactive instead of reactive” when he is banning the very kind of people who were mowed down by a Trump supporter in Quebec shows how insanely out of touch you mouth-breathing, knuckle-draggers are. (Pejorative enough for you?) — Garth

#116 Vanrentor on 02.02.17 at 10:35 am

Very lucky to have sold our Vancouver suburb home last July. Our $2.5m plus house would be hard to sell at $2.1 today. After closing our realtor said we are crazy to be out of the market.

#117 Bat Flipper on 02.02.17 at 10:38 am

If all the vacant homes hit the market, we would be more balanced. maybe the Van vacant home tax is to blame: http://vancouver.ca/home-property-development/empty-homes-tax.aspx

When all the speccers that bought as an investment, not rental, and these houses hit the market, that can move the needle substantially.

Everyone always blames the HAM, but forgets about the speccer tax.

#118 IHCTD9 on 02.02.17 at 10:51 am

#83 cramar on 02.01.17 at 11:15 pm

Plus 5 and beautiful sunshine today in Leamington. Housing reasonable. But in the interest of full disclosure. . .no Starbucks! Hummm. Maybe good business opportunity. Naw! I’m retired.
____________________________________________

I’ll bet the fishing and hunting are a lot better in Leamington than in Toronto too, well – unless you like going after Carp, Coon, and Skunk.

#119 Euro observer on 02.02.17 at 11:05 am

Such houses in ‘trendy’ New Market was priced at 200 k 12 years ago.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17761510/245-KARL-ROSE-Trail-Newmarket-Ontario-L3X3J2-Woodland-Hill

Now is 800 k. Pretty good tax free capital gain due to the largess-e of government, BOC and CMHC.

Who are now coming after the ‘wealthy’ doctors.

#120 Ogopogo on 02.02.17 at 11:28 am

Watching the madness in Vancouver implode is simply delicious Schadenfreude.

A lot more crow still needs to be stuffed into this humble pie.

#121 FNAiks on 02.02.17 at 11:44 am

Couple thoughts about TD bank…

Just for fun, I like to play with their ‘how much can I borrow’ mortgage calculator tool (I don’t have a mortgage). September I could apparently afford a 1.3MM house. January, they’ve redesigned it, and now I can only afford only a 900k house. This is after my income went up. I can’t help but wonder what gives?

Went on to check my TD bank account and an advertisement pops up asking if I want to enter a contest… 15k, no purchase necessary. Sure! Question 1.. when does your mortgage renew… There is no way to select ‘I don’t have a mortgage!’ I gave up.

Very disappointed.

#122 For those about to flop... on 02.02.17 at 11:48 am

Right now some Chinese Billionaire tycoon has asked his secretary to cancel his afternoon meetings, so he can investigate whether or not he is interested in putting an offer in on this place in Maple Ridge,after the owner decided to take $12 off the price to Asian the place up…

M42BC

22719 Kendrick Place, Maple Ridge
Nov 16:$799,900
Feb 1: $799,888
Change: – 12.00 -0%

#123 cramar on 02.02.17 at 12:19 pm

#115 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 10:35 am
WhiteHouse Spicer’s Comments:

“This is another senseless act of violence that cannot be tolerated,” White House spokesman Sean Spicer said.

“It’s a terrible reminder of why we must remain vigilant and why the president is taking steps to be proactive rather than reactive when it comes to our nation’s safety and security.”

Garth’s interpretation of this:

“…The White House actually said this week the slaughter of Muslims in Quebec by a local white Trump supporter shows how dangerous those pesky Islam guys are.”

[snip]

Old joke. Tired. The fact the WH said Trump must be “proactive instead of reactive” when he is banning the very kind of people who were mowed down by a Trump supporter in Quebec shows how insanely out of touch you mouth-breathing, knuckle-draggers are. (Pejorative enough for you?) — Garth

——-

The other unconscionable thing about Spicer’s comments is trying to SPIN the home-grow tragedy, which likely would not have happened if Trump was’t President, into: this is the reason why we have to ban foreigners!

It is amazing that people cannot (maybe refuse not to) see through the Orwellian Doublespeak that is constantly coming out of the WH!

#124 LP on 02.02.17 at 12:22 pm

#115 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 10:35 am

… shows how insanely out of touch you mouth-breathing, knuckle-draggers are. (Pejorative enough for you?) — Garth

You forgot “pimply faced”.

#125 Aussie PM on 02.02.17 at 12:28 pm

Dear Garth,

I am coming to your blog for a little r and r. after having been bullied on the phone by a terrible mate who hung up on me yesterday!

My old cabinet friend and current US ambassador Joe Hockey tells me this blog’s comments section is a place of calm and respect and progressive values and that you screen out all deplorables.

Thanks goodness, crikey, coz I need a break!

#126 NoName on 02.02.17 at 12:31 pm

I was reading about what’s happening on UC Berkeley, than I come across this…
I wonder is this fare well for ifone, and hello to designer “drugs” apparatus.

https://goo.gl/vL9KQt

#127 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 12:47 pm

“shows how insanely out of touch you mouth-breathing, knuckle-draggers are.”

———————————
Pejorative – That’s a big word for you Garth.

I thought the left always took the high road.
It’s unfortunate your blog and comments have degenerated into ad hominen that you once deplored.

Hypocrisy noted.

Mission accomplished. — Garth

#128 Reply to #114 on 02.02.17 at 12:47 pm

Do me a favour, sir, and read the books Exodus, Leviticus and Deuteronomy of the Christian bible, and then report back to us.

Wasn’t this a financial blog at some point?

#129 For those about to flop... on 02.02.17 at 1:07 pm

Pink Snow falling in Maple a Ridge.

These guys coughed up 476k last year and then decided they wanted a refund…

M42BC

11942 York Street, Maple Ridge

Oct 15:$578,900
Feb 1: $528,888
Change: – 50012.00 -9%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDBGNjMzRw==

#130 Crumley on 02.02.17 at 1:11 pm

#128 Reply to #114 on 02.02.17 at 12:47 pm

Are you trying to make the point that the ancient jewish people were genocidal warmongers?

oops!

#131 Balmuto on 02.02.17 at 1:12 pm

“#107 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 02.02.17 at 9:31 am

Also, I started noticing a disturbing trend in the media and online (inc seeping into your site Garth) of “them vs us” and “Trump or Not Trump”… please stop this prejudice.””

That’s because Trump really is that divisive. It’s not the media that’s to blame, it’s Trump. If this battle was just a media fabrication, then his unfiltered tweets would have a calming effect, whereas all they do is pour fuel on the fire. Just look at his very public attempt to humiliate and extort money from Mexico. You didn’t have to go to any media source to see that play out – it was all in his tweets. And our country, Canada, is not immune to his threats, believe me.

The “us vs them” mentality comes directly from Trump and will only get worse the longer he stays in office.

#132 For those about to flop... on 02.02.17 at 1:22 pm

This one could have a happy ending or could end in tears
but I will put it up just to show even though the condo market is still going strong not every flip is a slam dunk.

They paid 600k…could be sold this afternoon….who knows…

M42BC

505-821 Cambie Street, Vancouver

Oct 15:$739,000
Feb 1: $699,900
Change: – 39100.00 -5%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDA1WkVURg==

#133 IHCTD9 on 02.02.17 at 1:37 pm

#114 Stock Picker on 02.02.17 at 10:15 am
#3 Hmmmmm….excellent article and thx Garth for not deleting. It’s very true that western countries are not doing themselves or moderate Muslims any favours by pandering to the extremes of Islam. Currently most incoming Muslims are completely clueless about the life they’ll experience in the host countries. They’ve been indoctrinated into a state of mind where all Christians are the enemy. They concentrate in ghettos where the hear more of the same. In the Koran there are 114 chapters…109 of which reference killing all opposition to Islam…..in all sorts of nasty ways.
____________________________________________

Did you see that article about the Muslim guy in PQ that actually talked to the killer days before the shooting? The kid was asking about Islam, and the Muslim guy was explaining that Allah was the same God as is worshipped by Jews and Christians…

Muslims that immigrate here (not refugees) for a better life aren’t the radical type you describe. I tend to believe most Muslims overall are this type. I know many of them in the GTA and they are good hard working, tax paying, family minded, socially conservative folks. I actually find more in common with the status quo economic Muslim immigrant than I do with a typical Canadian on a values basis.

I think if you ever get to know some Muslim-Canadians who got here of their own effort and determination, you’ll find them pretty much the same as any other walk of life. They work hard, pay their taxes, get married, raise kids, and pay your CPP, OAS, health care and public schools. The biggest assholes I’ve ever met were born right here in Canada, so far the Muslims I know are universally respectful and respectable.

I’m not saying everything is perfect, and I’m just as bigoted (or more) as the next guy, but I call a spade a spade. These folks aren’t causing trouble.

#134 jess on 02.02.17 at 1:50 pm

german /italian bank scandal

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-01-19/how-deutsche-bank-made-367-million-disappear

#135 Sonny on 02.02.17 at 1:59 pm

Vancouver home sales fall by 40% in January as market continues to soften

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/vancouver-home-sales-drop-further-as-market-continues-to-soften/article33878876/

#136 Chico on 02.02.17 at 2:00 pm

#128 Reply to #114 on 02.02.17 at 12:47 pm

Do me a favour, sir, and read the books Exodus, Leviticus and Deuteronomy of the Christian bible, and then report back to us.

Wasn’t this a financial blog at some point?

—–
If it’s a financial blog, then why bring it up? Do you have some insights into the wars that are referenced in the books you mentioned? Do you know why the wars were fought and blood was shed?

I played soccer with an Iranian who was of the Bahai faith and he and his entire family were forced to leave his country because they were hated so much.

My wife worked with a Sikh woman who’s husband refused to accept the fact that their daughter wanted to marry a Muslim man. Too many wars between the groups.

Whether you agree with the poster or not, at least he did some research, unlike you. There are tons of Jewish scholars who can give you detailed information about the wars you mentioned and why they happened.

#137 n1tro on 02.02.17 at 2:06 pm

@IHCTD9

Majority of muslims arent causing trouble. Its their sometimes non progressive beliefs that makes them targets. example: A hijab or burka isnt religious attire but more a cultural suppression of females yet you have nutjobs here donning hijabs in support of muslim women’s rights. The world is getting too crazy.

#138 Boots on the Ground in Ptld on 02.02.17 at 2:06 pm

US real estate:

Mark Hanson makes the case that US real estate is now a bubble which is bigger and badder than the first bubble.

https://mcaf.ee/6yxh9t

( the original url was so long )

the people who voted for Trump did so out of a sense of economic frustration. If Mark Hanson is right they haven’t seen nothin. There’s nothing that makes people think they’re hard done by like the price of their house going down.

in Canada, the price of our houses is about to go down. Leading to a sense of economic frustration. Like in the States.
—————————————————————-
Thanks 45north, great link!
More anecdotal observations:

Here in the burbs of Portland its a swarm of traffic noise coming from the highway at all the predictable hours. Although of late the evening rush seems to be going later and later as everyone puts in the longer hours to pay the higher prices we’re seeing at the groc aisles, in my opin. (WA voted to increase min wage-who’s payin now after that vote?)

A few observances two evenings ago during a monthly stock up:
[email protected] pm, this location happens to be one of the busiest on the west coast (so I was told by a worker about a year ago) VERY quiet. Me who detests going to Costco was pleasantly surprised and although I’m typically in “the zone” ie get in and get out, even I noticed how few shoppers there were.

[email protected] local equivalent to Winners, TJMaxx: This particular location serves all of SW Wa -the closest other location is across the bridge in OR. Typically this store is shoulder to shoulder shopping. I didn’t notice at first but within about 15 mins it occured to me I could hear the cash register gals chatting from halfway across the store, it was that quiet. Furtively glanced around and I’d say MAYBE there were 5-6 actual shoppers? Otherwise the others in the store were employees “looking busy”. At this point I started to actually wonder if something big had happened that I didn’t know about and if that was the reason so few people were out. (No TV and no news besides this good ole blog so there could very well have been a doozy happening and I’d have had no clue)
A year ago, I would have run into at least 1 or 2 friends or acquaintances shopping at that time of night.

Coincidence or is this rate increase starting to show itself at the same time folks are still recovering from Christmas over spending? (The burbs here have the same phenomena as what you all reference in YVR and GTA- as far as the eye can tell, everyone but ourselves are “rich”)

As I was there with a gift card in hand and no mortgage or debt worries, I was feeling rather smug I must say. That being said my wonderful landlord could at any time raise the rent again since “costs seem to keep increasing” so my smugness doesn’t go far.

#139 Boots on the Ground in Ptld on 02.02.17 at 2:17 pm

Oh and I can confirm what Mark Hanson shows in link above posted by 45north, at least pertaining to this area of SW WA. I checked sales data about 1.5 month ago out of curiousity and sure enough the #’s are back to 2006 #’s. I remember thinking uh, ok? What now then? When, like Hanson says, affordability is even less and rates are creeping higher? He has a strong case. Shiller also has given a warning.

#140 Free bird on 02.02.17 at 2:19 pm

We have close friends who happen to be muslim and Hindu…and Catholic, Jewish and Agnostic? Some recent immigrants So what? They’re good people and good friends. Neil Degrasse has some great docs on evolution and biology. Seems we’re all from the same branch of nature. Yes, even our crazy a**ed neighbor.

Nova Scotia sounds good. Heard the valleys are warmer, less snow. Maybe just buy some popcorn, and wait until this scary comedy drama is over.

#141 jess on 02.02.17 at 2:19 pm

thee I’s have it… 498 to 114
MPs vote to trigger Article 50

#142 For those about to flop... on 02.02.17 at 2:24 pm

Well I went over to Martha Stewart’s blog to see if I could do my Pink Snow posts over there, since this thread has taken off in a different direction, but she sent me back here.

Turns out the only dog she likes is Snoop Dogg…

M42BC

#143 Free bird on 02.02.17 at 2:25 pm

#123 cramar
Orwellian Doublespeak that is constantly coming out of the WH!
————-
The official term is now Alternative Facts or mistruthd if you must.

#144 InvestorsFriend on 02.02.17 at 2:32 pm

Imagine no boss, and no one else to answer to too.

THINK about how great it would be to earn a living without having a boss.

Total freedom to do your work as you see fit. The harder and smarter you worked the more you would get paid. And the work would be enjoyable.

Would be that be priceless or what?

One person who has that situation is Garth

When he writes his daily blog he has no editor to answer to. He can write what he wants how he wants. When he sees an unacceptable comment he can delete it. No boss exists to second guess his writings or deletions. If he wishes to insult someone in a pithy response, because he feels they deserve it, he does. Total freedom.

Now, you might say the blog does not bring in revenue. Nevertheless it has great value in attracting a following.

And in Garth’s main job of managing money he also has no boss. He is the boss. There are some regulations but they are presumably not too bothersome.

Not only no boss, but Garth has multiple clients and if a couple turn out to be wingnuts and not worth the trouble he can fire them at will.

How many other people have a no boss situation like that (and still earn good money from some kind of work?)

Warren Buffett is one and has often said that is how he set up his life. Buffett’s life is boss free and a$$hole free.

It’s something to aspire to.

Hey, that’s me. Just like Warren Buffet, but missing $73.4 billion (US). — Garth

#145 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 2:41 pm

#133 IHCTD9 on 02.02.17 at 1:37 pm

I’m not saying everything is perfect, and I’m just as bigoted (or more) as the next guy, but I call a spade a spade. These folks aren’t causing trouble.

—————–

Your are correct.
And it is very likely due to Canada’s vetting process.
Does anyone believe that there is no vetting process that goes on for refugees and immigrants?

Does the left believe that Canada does no checking of the immigrants and refugees that apply to Canada?

Just as the US has a vetting process for its immigrants. It’s southern border excepted.

So the US president (buffoon that he can be) says that there needs to be a ‘better’ vetting process for people coming from 7 of the most shithole countries in the world (despite the fact that there are many others), and places a temporary ban on immigration from these countries.

And the left goes nuts.
Despite the fact that there are still huge numbers of refugees and immigrants coming to the US from all over the world.
Despite the fact that the ban is TEMPORARY.

So today to ensure the control of your borders is now racist, xenophobic, Hitlerian?

To be welcoming of immigrants and refugees into Canada is not enough?

The countries of the world should have no control of their borders, or choice of citizens because if 300,000 annual immigrants and 30,000 refugees in Canada is OK , then Canada should allow 2 million immigrants and unlimited refugees?

No?
Well how racist and xenophobic of you.

And this blog calls anyone who disagrees with the left’s pathetic reaction, and the left media’s obvious bias and outlight lies,a ‘mouth breating nuckle drager’.

Because virtue signalling is virtuous today. Pathetic.

Those who suggest that the US and Canada and any other country in the world does not have the right to vette the people who want to live in their county, is an absolute globalist that believes in full open borders for all the world and full freedom of movement of all peoples.

This was the recent policy of France, Germany, Belgium.
And they are now feeling the results of this utopian policy. And it ain’t good. And the populous is pissed.

The rest of the sane world ( the xenophobic, racist, deplorable nuckledraggers), believes that controlled and managed immigration is the hallmark of a caring yet responsible government.

And that the Canadian government, and any government in the world has the right, and if fact the responsibility, to its citizens, to manage the flow of immigrants and refugees.

The over-reaction of the left to the US temporary ban is hypocrisy at its very worst.

I think you just provided us all with the definition of ‘over-reaction.’ Lie down for a spell. Try breathing through your nose. — Garth

#146 bdwy sktrn on 02.02.17 at 2:43 pm

Old joke. Tired. The fact the WH said Trump must be “proactive instead of reactive” when he is banning the very kind of people who were mowed down by a Trump supporter in Quebec shows how insanely out of touch you mouth-breathing, knuckle-draggers are. (Pejorative enough for you?) — Garth

——-

The other unconscionable thing about Spicer’s comments is trying to SPIN the home-grow tragedy, which likely would not have happened if Trump was’t President, into: this is the reason why we have to ban foreigners!

———————
perhaps nobody was watching this unfold in real time.

at the time of that spicer statement the news was ALL saying there were multiple shooters, one who was named mohammed and shouted allah akbar while ‘mowing down’ the victims. (this was bad info, apparently – wonder why someone who was inside the mosque put it out there?)

his fault was acting too quickly on false info.

#147 Reply to #136 on 02.02.17 at 2:47 pm

No mention of wars was made or even intended in my comment, sir.

Simply pointing out the exact same criticisms that the previous commenter made about the Quran could be made about the Bible. Thought my point was self-explanatory, but apparently not.

#148 Ole Doberman on 02.02.17 at 2:48 pm

#90 Not 1st on 02.02.17 at 12:53 am

Nova Scotia? Seriously? Have you seen their winters?

Everybody knows Calgary is the emerging RE gem in the country especially commercial property.
———————————————————–
Sarcasm right?

#149 bdwy sktrn on 02.02.17 at 2:50 pm

A few observances two evenings ago during a monthly stock up:
[email protected] pm, this location happens to be one of the busiest on the west coast
————————
heard the same about halifax, toronto, van – it’s like every one’s surgeon is the ‘best in the country’

anyway, i went to bellingham costco on the wknd – always busy but this time the lot was totally empty. then we drove to the new, larger location and it was the usual madhouse, but bigger.

anyway if pdx costco is weak, it is prob the only one in the country as they just blew the doors off the latest qtr.

stock is up nearly 6 bux today making me and buffet quite pleased.

#150 For those about to flop... on 02.02.17 at 3:04 pm

Just to wrap a bow on a house I featured at post 24 up thread.

It sold for 1.105m after being on the market for several months.

It worked its way down from 1.4 and is assessed at 1.362m

So the buyer managed to get this house in a half decent neighborhood for nearly 20% less than assessment.

Even though the market is sliding this could still prove to be a good purchase in the long run.

The only bad thing for these guys is the have to put up with riff- raff like me living nearby…

M42BC

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMjdQNw==

#151 Crazyfox on 02.02.17 at 3:06 pm

#115 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 10:35 am

Trump supporters like their Fox news right, at least you can agree on that. Fox news ran the story on Sunday night everyone else did from CP initially, 2 suspects, one of them Moroccan and gave his full name. Around 11:30 am Monday, the story had changed as the facts came out as it always does. Now there is only one suspect and one witness in custody with no names given, the suspect to be named soon.

By 12:30 pm Monday, the lone suspect is named as Alexandre Bissonnette, a big fan of Trump and Marine La Pen, both well known politicians for anti immigration and anti Muslim views. This story is making waves around the world and everywhere media has changed their story within the hour except, guess where, the largest news outlet in the U.S., Fox news. What Fox news did was continue to run the old story where there were two suspects, still giving the Moroccan name until close to 9 pm on Monday night and kept running the original tweet until Tuesday evening.

In the real world, they call that propaganda and not only propaganda, but it puts in danger the named witness, now falsely accused as a suspect.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/02/01/fox-news-falsely-reported-that-the-quebec-terror-suspect-was-moroccan-then-canada-got-mad/

But I digress. 6 Muslims were Murdered in a Mosque on Sunday by a white 27 year old Quebecer named Alexandre Bissonnette who, as it turns out, was a big fan of Trump and Marine La Pen who are well known for their anti immigrant, anti Muslim views. It also turns out Bissonnette was an internet troll who engaged in anti-Muslim and anti-immigration speak online and what does the Trump administration do? They use this story to support their travel ban on Muslims from 7 nations in the middle east. 6 Muslims are shot dead from a white Trump supporter and Trump’s team later uses this to justify Trump’s policy on banning Muslims because, y’know, Muslims could be terrorists.

‘Cause you know Muslim’s could be terrorists at least, according to anyone who watches Fox news. Its not a stretch to think Alexandre Bissonnette shared the same belief and was “getting ahead of the curve” as someone who liked to follow demagogues like Trump:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demagogue

#152 neo on 02.02.17 at 3:26 pm

#106 45north on 02.02.17 at 9:30 am
Neo: I got a better indicator for a ground zero. The number on cash advance places per capita. That winner goes to Brampton.

the same Brampton which will be the last to tank?

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2010/09/23/road-kill/#comment-56664

********************************************

I couldn’t disagree with you more. Based on what will they be the last to tank?

#153 Victor V on 02.02.17 at 3:27 pm

Vancouver home sales plunge 40% — and now prices are beginning to follow

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/vancouver-home-sales-plunge-40-and-prices-are-beginning-to-follow

#154 Chico on 02.02.17 at 3:28 pm

#147 Reply to #136 on 02.02.17 at 2:47 pm

No mention of wars was made or even intended in my comment, sir.

Simply pointing out the exact same criticisms that the previous commenter made about the Quran could be made about the Bible. Thought my point was self-explanatory, but apparently not.

—-

The previous poster made an argument with data, you simply used assumptions and put the onus on the other person to read some Old Testament books, while providing no data to the contrary regarding his research of the Quran.
It sounds like your term “self-explanatory” only pertains to the conversation you are having with your “self.” Why not challenge the data he put forth to see if it’s accurate or not, and then you might have something of value to add. Of course, I forgot, it’s the internet. Just shoot blindly from the hip. Take a very complex subject and simplify it to the level of ignorance.

#155 H Epstein on 02.02.17 at 3:31 pm

150 For those about to flop… on 02.02.17 at 3:04 pm

The only bad thing for these guys is the have to put up with riff- raff like me living nearby…
————-
They will simply ignore you like so many here do.

#156 Domingo on 02.02.17 at 3:37 pm

@For Those About To Flop

I enjoy your comments, as I too am somewhat obsessively tracking prices. Where are you getting your sales price history from, if I may ask? My understanding is that the only available source of said info is from proprietary MLS websites which are not open to the public. Sad that our US neighbours are so much better served with this vitally important information.

As with an earlier poster, I’m also very curious about the veracity of reports of skyrocketing delinquency rates in the GTA. From here in Vancity, and not knowing many GTA folks, I’m not able to find any further info about it.

Garth I enjoy and appreciate the blog, which I’ve only been reading regularly (ok fine… compulsively) for a few months now. You’ve talked be back from the FOMO edge and cured me of some of my wide-eyed naivete. For that I thank you.

#157 For those about to flop... on 02.02.17 at 3:59 pm

Hey Domingo,the house that I just finished documenting was only sold a few days ago, I pointed it out to a guy up thread when he said he was looking for a bargain in East Van.

The realtor already has the sold price up on his website, just as it should be.

He is one of the area’s top realtors and he just made his first sale in 4 months and now that he sold that house has no other units in his inventory.

That’s how quite is has been around here.

Things seem to be warming up a little though if you have a decent price on it.

It has dawned on me more than once that a guy with an iPad mini ,sausage fingers and half a brain is not probably the best candidate to try and document what could be one of the biggest real estate melt downs on the planet, but I will soldier on…

M42BC

http://www.normflockhart.com/listings/sales.aspx

#158 IHCTD9 on 02.02.17 at 4:00 pm

#145 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 2:41 pm
#133 IHCTD9 on 02.02.17 at 1:37 pm

I’m not saying everything is perfect, and I’m just as bigoted (or more) as the next guy, but I call a spade a spade. These folks aren’t causing trouble.

—————–

Your are correct.
And it is very likely due to Canada’s vetting process.
Does anyone believe that there is no vetting process that goes on for refugees and immigrants?
________________________________________

I agree, Canada has a pretty good handle on how to let folks in the country. The USA is/was “first come first served”, the Canadian system last I looked put the would be new Canadians into a hierarchy according to what we need most going forward. Trudeau leaving the aimless, unemployable, single young men of Syria on the other side of the Atlantic was probably a good move.

I know what you’re saying about the radical left screaming about Trump policy. I personally don’t feel Trump really needs to worry at all about how his policies will be received – it’ll be arm flapping “Price is Right” freak-outs every time, no matter what DT proposes.

Seriously, I think he could be doing better on many fronts myself. But, the estrogen supercharged tantrum-orgy has already got me clicking off anything that may emit the blubbering lamentations of yet another millennial anchorette telling us all what Trump just said. It’s been what, 3 weeks? Good Grief.

They hate Trump, end of conversation, no further information required. the left doesn’t care about Trump being PC nor do they give a rip about Muslims. They want to feed Trump dirt 24/7/365 and it matters little what he does or says.

That’s current US politics, hatred and ideology mixed with a heaping load of sour grapes. We’re going to keep hearing the hysterics, so I pay them no mind.

In fact, I just changed my alarm clock this am to play something other than the CBC because every single morning it was some breathless female correspondent freaking right the $%#@ out about whatever it was that Trump signed yesterday. I started to feel like I was waking up in a hen house every morning.

I get it, Trump ain’t the greatest POTUS ever elected, now please, for the love of all intelligent life in the universe STFU.

One thing I think Canada is doing a little better than some other countries is providing the newcomers a somewhat decent life. Newcomers from 15-20 years ago are off and running. It’s getting tougher though, I can see what is coming, and I can see that PC, crap immigration policy (ie. increasing it), crap logistical planning (ie. letting all of them settle in the GTA) and the (crap) economy are going to make getting on your feet in Canada a lot tougher going forward for immigrants.

IMHO – that’s when the real trouble starts, we want new folks to believe a better life lays ahead, and success must be had on a regular basis. If not, impressionable, disgruntled young minds can be easily influenced to find purpose and meaning in life via other means…

#159 Balmuto on 02.02.17 at 4:03 pm

“#145 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 2:41 pm

And the left goes nuts.
Despite the fact that there are still huge numbers of refugees and immigrants coming to the US from all over the world.
Despite the fact that the ban is TEMPORARY.”

The Trump Administration has already started floating the idea that the ban may be extended indefinitely for certain countries on the list:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-immigration-20170131-story.html

Also, from the same article:

“The list of banned countries may expand; Trump’s order directed Kelly to submit within 60 days a list of additional nations whose citizens should be prohibited from traveling to the U.S. as well.”

Just so you know.

#160 Nemesis on 02.02.17 at 4:18 pm

#ThursdayMischief,Or… #SadhuAxesMuktharSaysJag… #CityHallGoesMedievalInJalalabadLaLaLand?…

[Sun] – City of Vancouver manager fires chief housing officer

…”To date, VAHA has not opened a single affordable housing unit.”…

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouvers-chief-housing-officer-fired-from-job

#161 DON on 02.02.17 at 4:25 pm

@h epstein

I quite enjoy Floppy,s multiple post – his thoughts are bang on with market sentiment. I am now tracking van island real estate.

In fact recently I have been scrolling through the trump arguments blog postings to ghetto Flops postings.

So there….nanananana!

#162 For those about to flop... on 02.02.17 at 4:25 pm

on 02.02.17 at 3:31 pm
150 For those about to flop… on 02.02.17 at 3:04 pm

The only bad thing for these guys is the have to put up with riff- raff like me living nearby…
————-
They will simply ignore you like so many here do.

/////////////////////////

Don’t worry my realtor friend,after Valenties Day I will pick up some Chocolates out of the 50% off bin for you as thanks for allowing me to spread the truth…

M42BC

#163 bdwy sktrn on 02.02.17 at 4:49 pm

call any realtor. give them dates, a spot and a radius. mine got me this…

27xx VENABLES STREET ask $1,499 sell $1,575 -over

12xx E 14TH AVE $1,228 $1,380 – over

23xx E 27TH AVENUE $1,750 $1,650 – under

27xx E 26TH AVE $998 $987 – under

18xx E 7TH AVENUE $1,088 $1,165 – over

12xx COTTON DRIVE 1,422 $1,350 – under

this is the past week or so. this is comm. dr. up towards , but not quite into, flop’s hood.
i’m a bit shocked to see the strength – none of these are locations i would consider to be so good.

peak pricing was maybe 10% higher if one got a bit lucky and timed it perfectly.

still two (of 4) brand new duplex on vic park languishing at 1.6. looks like poor masonry construction from the outside (i was shocked), when they sell it will be confirmation of the return of the madness.

nobody is in panic though, this may be the new bottom. is it time for some new fomo? otherwise it’s condo box for you. (and for really good views the condo costs more than the sfh)

no pop yet, just a brief exhale, then maintain altitude and watch 416 try to catch up – if/when 416/905 gets the offshore tax van resumes it’s climb attitude.

#164 Bond Junkie on 02.02.17 at 4:54 pm

I feel another real furious debating coming on in about 3hrs hence…

-Bj

#165 Victoria on 02.02.17 at 5:05 pm

Well, this is not so good news for our children. It is very hard to get to the Universities now because many of these students from abroad are studying in Canada now. It will be very hard in the future for our children to get in. I don’t know why our kids don’t have priority to enter our schools.

Prove any of this. — Garth

#166 Nemesis on 02.02.17 at 5:25 pm

#BonusMischief,Or… #TheBigSmelt… #”BrownCollar”CriminalMastermindConvictedByDoody… #InTheCaseOfTheGoldenSphincter…

[G&M] – 30 months in ClubFed for Canada Mint employee who stashed fortune in stolen gold where the sun doesn’t shine…

“While he was certainly in a position of trust which he breached, he was not a senior managerial official… so, this is a blue-collar theft, not a brownwhite-collar theft.” – Ontario Court Judge Peter Doody

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/mint-employee-who-hid-stolen-gold-in-his-rectum-gets-30-months/article33874836/

#167 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 5:50 pm

I think you just provided us all with the definition of ‘over-reaction.’ Lie down for a spell. Try breathing through your nose. — Garth

——————————–
It’s all OK.
I just went and worked out for 2 hours.
I feel much better now.

#168 jess on 02.02.17 at 6:16 pm

koch brothers are ++ good

http://www.prwatch.org/news/2017/01/13210/charles-koch-ramps-higher-ed-funding-talent-pipeline

#169 AB Boxster on 02.02.17 at 6:20 pm

#159 Balmuto on 02.02.17 at 4:03 pm

The Trump Administration has already started floating the idea that the ban may be extended indefinitely for certain countries on the list.

————————————————–

Please don’t justify your position based upon anything from the mainstream media. They all lie, they all have an angle, they are all politicized.

If you did not recognize that from the Canadian election and certainly the US election, then you have your eyes tightly shut. For every comment or news story one runs there is a contradictory story elsewhere.

Donald might do this, he might do that.

When Donald does something that I think is pretty egregious (racist or unfair or illegal) I will absolutely react.

Just as I took issue with some of the actions of the past federal conservative government, just as I reacted to the old entitled PC party that ran Alberta for the last 15 years, and as I reacted to the Bush conservatives who figured it was a good idea to invade Iraq.

Perhaps you might take offense at real issues of the day, such as the nightmare Wynne government in Ontario, the federal Liberal government which has broken most of their election promises, the state of the finances and economy in this country which, should these policies continue, will guarantee that Canada will be an economic basket case in the future.

To worry about what the Donald says, or what he might do, before he actually does it, is a complete waste of time.

#170 Argon18 on 02.02.17 at 6:31 pm

Drop in “Average”, “Median”, “Sales” stats does not change anything for the agerave Joe on the street in VYR. So what if $5+M is not selling and pushes Average down? When Benchamark price on average house drops from $1.5M to below $1M, then we can talk about correction.

#171 bdwy sktrn on 02.02.17 at 6:50 pm

last?

#172 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.02.17 at 9:55 pm

@#171 bdwy sktrn
last?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Nope.

#173 Ace Goodheart on 02.03.17 at 9:52 am

RE: “Wynne’s veto of Toronto road toll plan is an act of political cowardice”

Wynne cannot win an election and will have to be replaced before the next Provincial one takes place.

Her problems are not to do with tolls. They are to do with bad optics in regard to her dealings with the education system. She let special interest groups take over the dialogue and now we have everyone upset about stuff that isn’t even happening (the centre of the upset is her “controversial” sexual education program – which is actually not controversial at all (if anyone would actually read it) and how this effects people’s children). Special interests and the religious far right control the dialogue on this item, and they should never have been allowed to do that.

This situation will bury her in the next election. It is making her wildly unpopular now. And it is a simple case of not controlling the dialogue.

#174 Ace Goodheart on 02.03.17 at 10:16 am

#137 n1tro:

“Majority of muslims arent causing trouble. Its their sometimes non progressive beliefs that makes them targets.”

There is an interesting book on religion written by a person by the name of Richard Dawkins. “The God Delusion” I believe it is called. He has a whole section on “escaping from religion” and victims of child hood religious indoctrination. It is very enlightening to read. A lot of people spend their whole lives essentially afraid of offending willow the wisp.

The basic philosophy is that religion will not stand questioning (fundamental tenet of religion is you must believe it, without questioning it). He questions it, and the results are both hilarious and also eye opening.

I would suggest to anyone who seriously is having problems with any particular religion, to question it. You will see it falls apart when you do that.

Some people like Religion. If they do, more power to them, have fun with it. What I don’t like, is people forcing it on other people (particularly children).