Bad ideas

“Huge fan of the blog,” writes Chris, “please don’t every stop! Every time I am ready to bid on a house I visit your site and remind myself to think rationally. As a 32 yr old father of 4 I am living the Garth Turner Rule of 90 and renting in the GTA.”

Hmm. Better a suck-up than usual. Chris must want something…

“However, I could do without the family guilt. (How can you force 4 kids to live in a 1500 Sq foot apartment???) I know you get tons of these questions but here goes. I have an opportunity to buy a cash-flowing Real Estate investment in Ottawa. Sure the capital may fluctuate, but the investment should generate income. Do I wait and see if the market drops, or move forward?”

This is actually an interesting email. First, our fellow blog dog understands buying in the GTA right now, with scant supply and rapacious, hopped-up buyers, is nuts. There are no bargains, only jumping in at the top. But he still feels guilt because (as we all know from our moms) Real Men Buy Houses. So Chris wants to prove his throbbing manliness by buying some rental thing 600 km away.

Second, did you notice the phrase, “cash-flowing Real Estate investment,” and the capital letters used? Aha. He’s been visiting one of those cultish property investment club web sites where some guy desperately hopes to sell you a $29 book because he’s “a multi-millionaire successful Real Estate investor who now wants to share his incredible secrets with you!” Yeah, right.

Clearly I can’t answer this question without understanding much more about C. But we do know he can’t afford a house in Toronto (and abide by the reasonable Rule of 90). He has at least four dependents at the tender age of 32. Ouch. There are six people in his space. And now he wants to swallow a bunch of debt to buy a rental in a city from which nobody ever returns quite normal, because it “should generate income.”

Chris. Dude. Let me slap you around a little. You’re delirious. The spring property rutting season has made your brain ferment. This is a bad idea on many levels.

First, even in Ottawa investment properties with good cap rates are virtually non-existent. It’s not enough to buy something, hope to rent it and maybe cover most of your expenses. The equity shoveled in there would be better off earning far higher returns in financial assets. After you add in financing charges, property tax, insurance, the lost use of your down payment, repairs, maintenance and an allowance for vacancies, there’s no profit. Trust me.

So the only real benefit is the potential for capital appreciation in the value of property. And forget that. According to local realtors house prices roared ahead by 1.5% last year. Yes one and a half, or about the rate of inflation. Compare that to 17% in Toronto and you can see that this market is not only stable, it’s got rigor.

Then there’s the issue of debt. You may not have real estate now, but neither do you have a mortgage. Those who do will certainly be facing higher renewal costs in the years to come – and enough of an increase that, should you buy, your cash-flowing property could easily turn into a cash-negative one.

Finally, how is this possibly going to help your family? By draining off potential down payment cash into some flop place on the Rideau so you can subsidize renters with government defined-benefits pensions will not get your brood into their own digs any sooner. The opposite. This may mean you never own a property where you actually want to live. Even if the Ottawa place appreciated, you have to sell to realize the gain – which involves paying out a fat commission, dealing with cranky tenants pissed they have to move, and waiting months for a greater fool to come along.

Oh, and Chris, did you catch the latest news from Royal Bank?

This year the hammer falls on Toronto real estate, it says. Just as the BC government eviscerated the Vancouver market and Hoovered out the speculators, causing a serious erosion, so the feds are about to whack the GTA after the 2016 stupidity.

“The likelihood of policy intervention to address housing risks in Toronto is increasing,” RBC economists warn. Meanwhile CMHC this week again raised its little red flag, suggesting government is preparing new measures to corral prices. “We continue to detect strong evidence of problematic conditions in Canada,” CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan says. “Price acceleration in Vancouver, Victoria, Toronto and Hamilton indicates that home price growth may be driven by speculation as it is outpacing what economic fundamentals like migration, employment and income can support.”

As if this weren’t enough, Canada’s economy continues to limp badly amid heightened concern the jingoistic bully in the White House will throw essential trade deals under the bus in his ‘hire American, buy American’ frenzy. In fact, he did it Thursday, as the Trump administration said it’s prepared to impose a 20% tariff on all Mexican imports – using the money (estimated at $10 billion a year) to build that massive, ridiculous wall along the border with its key trading partner. Such a tax is completely illegal under NAFTA rules. And without NAFTA, our Canadian goose is nicely sautéed.

So, Chris, give it up. Stop reading the REIN website under the covers. Take the Realtor.ca app off your phone. Strip those frissons of guilt from your mind. There are better ways to feel manly.

140 comments ↓

#1 Derek Ross on 01.26.17 at 7:14 pm

Chris, if you really want to own some real estate, buy an REIT ETF. All the fun and income of a rental property with none of the headaches!

#2 Vancouver Brit on 01.26.17 at 7:20 pm

“Price acceleration in Vancouver, Victoria, Toronto and Hamilton indicates that home price growth may be driven by speculation”

___________________________________

Really…REALLY?! The average Joe figured that out years ago!

No doubt Garth disagrees though, house prices can’t possibly be affected by foreign speculation.

#3 Andrew Woburn on 01.26.17 at 7:23 pm

– The State Department’s entire senior administrative team just resigned

How do you spin this? How will this encourage foreigners to keep piling into the US dollar? What happens to the Loonie then? How would you like to be Poloz right about now?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2017/01/26/the-state-departments-entire-senior-management-team-just-resigned/?utm_term=.accc4168f8a4&wpisrc=nl_most-draw8&wpmm=1

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.26.17 at 7:24 pm

32 and 4 kids……Pfffft
I remember a friend who lived with his parents and six brothers and sisters in a 2 bedroom apt.
Some of the infant kids slept in dresser drawers in the parents room….
His dad was a very religious man who didnt believe in birth control. When he asked his boss for a raise because his wife was pregant once AGAIN….
His boss said, ” You should stop having kids. You cant afford to go on like this.”
He replied , “Its God’s Will”
To which his boss replied, ” Then pray to God for a raise”

Sounds like a Rodney Dangerfield joke,
” Poor? Lemme tell ya about poor. I was so poor the milkman would bite the dog to make us pay!”

#5 Doug t on 01.26.17 at 7:33 pm

Everyone is focused on nafta -China is the worry. Their economy is a,massive ponzi built on paper tigers. From shadow banking to shadow cities, money laundering on a massive scale to the common practice of payoffs at the highest levels of business. When that house falls it’s going be a tsunami effecting the world – word

#6 Statsfreak on 01.26.17 at 7:35 pm

Is it just me, or does anyone else see rhe obvious re : Thw Bunny-Brain currently nesting in the white house?

If the US buys widgets for $1.00 from Mexico now, then a 20% tax will only cause them to pass that along to their customers & widgets will be $1.20. No doubt this would still be cheaper than any American made widgets. The end result being American citizens will end up being the ones paying for the silly wall.

#7 not 1st on 01.26.17 at 7:36 pm

RE in GTA only cash flows if you sell ice cream out of it on the side.

#8 Hurray For Policy Intervention! on 01.26.17 at 7:37 pm

Normally, I don’t support a lot of government intervention, but with everyone in the GTA sick with the house flu, some good old fashion medicine is due! People are so stupid, propelling themselves into debt overload – unfortunately all these financial illiterates need “big brother government” to take away the bunch bowl, because the people of this region have lost both their sanity.

#9 Lulu on 01.26.17 at 7:39 pm

I got to build that wall, no trouble, got to build that wall, no trouble!! Hmm!! Let see it to believe it.

If Chum Chum indeed kick out most of the illegal immigrants, then the fruit picker need to hire local and our fruit and veggie price will soar!! One example Chum Chum should loot at is American Apparel, this company is hiring all local and their retail price is not cheap consider the style and reviews, and after a decade more, it finally go bankrupt, so American first may sound good, but would it be sustainable? I highly doubt it plus China is up to par now, so, Trade war for sure.

#10 Ray Skunk on 01.26.17 at 7:40 pm

#3

How do you spin that? Well, looks like it was already spun.

The truth:
http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/26/politics/top-state-department-officials-asked-to-leave-by-trump-administration/index.html

#11 Old Salt on 01.26.17 at 7:40 pm

Chris, please come buy a rental here, the more selection for me the better. After a 2 year sailing sabbatical I landed in Kanata. A little bland but 5 minutes from work.

I could buy easily, but I rent a house that would list comfortably over 500k for 2k a month. It sat empty for 2 months then the landlord forked over my first months rent to the realtor. At 20% down the mortgage would be about 2k a month. Add in property taxes and the lost return on my down payment and we’re up to 3k a month before thinking about the roof or furnace.

If it weren’t for traffic I could rent in one of the ‘desirable’ neighbourhoods for the same monthly rent… Only difference is the houses there cost more so better subsidy for the tenant.

Dig up the specs. Sales history has been flat for 3 years. Yes, it has a repeatable uptrend in the spring… Consistently followed by a down trend to January. Nothing year over year though to cover the wear and tear from my dog on your hardwood floors.

But don’t take financial advice from someone that was foolish enough to buy a boat.

#12 Kootenay Hippie on 01.26.17 at 7:41 pm

So, Americans will pay for the wall. “People, not imports, pay taxes on imports”

http://cafehayek.com/2017/01/banging-head-wall.html

#13 AK on 01.26.17 at 7:43 pm

“The jingoistic bully in the White House will throw essential trade deals under the bus in his ‘hire American, buy American’ frenzy. In fact, he did it Thursday, as the Trump administration said it’s prepared to impose a 20% tariff on all Mexican imports”
——————————————————————
All the Trump attention over the past month, is neglecting The Fed.

Watch out for The Fed.

#14 Ethan Kim on 01.26.17 at 7:45 pm

Well, the Chinese New Year is fast approaching, and during the year of the fire rooster, real estate is seen as a bad investment, so no Asian money will be saving all these folks gorged in debt looking for the “greater fool.” Party is over, ask your Chinese friends, we don’t buy real estate during the year of the fire rooster!

#15 For those about to flop... on 01.26.17 at 7:46 pm

I get it.

You guys in the GTA see me doing my Pink Snow posts and scroll right by because you think that it’s got nothing to do with you.

It’s got everything to do with you guys.

For a lot of people here in the GVA unless something stupid happens again the jig is up.

You guys can still walk away… stay renting ,and purchase for a big discount down the line.

People for the first time in a long time here have started to sell their houses for less than they bought them for in the last year or so.

The realtors are dropping the prices and making sales and then saying that the sale was a success and went over ask but this is a smoke show.

In the coming months I will be posting examples of confirmed sales that were sold for less than purchased for recently.It takes a few months for it to be entered into the official assessment website for the public to see.

Do what you want,but if I save one person from a lifetime of financial pain it will have been worth annoying the piss out of the boss…

M42BC

#16 State Dept. fake news on 01.26.17 at 7:50 pm

#3 Andrew Woburn on 01.26.17 at 7:23 pm

– The State Department’s entire senior administrative team just resigned

How do you spin this? How will this encourage foreigners to keep piling into the US dollar? What happens to the Loonie then? How would you like to be Poloz right about now?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2017/01/26/the-state-departments-entire-senior-management-team-just-resigned/?utm_term=.accc4168f8a4&wpisrc=nl_most-draw8&wpmm=1

—-

Looks like it’s a great piece of fake news.

Look at the update:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-26/entire-senior-management-team-state-department-just-resigned

In short:
Career officers serving in positions appointed by the President, submitted letters of resignation per tradition at the beginning of a new administration. The letters from the White House said that their resignations were accepted and they were thanked for their service.

#17 Jan 28 on 01.26.17 at 7:50 pm

Foreign Money dries up. . .instead of the bell tolling, it’s the rooster crowing. This will be the straw that breaks the camels back!

#18 Mean Gene on 01.26.17 at 7:54 pm

Mr T, what is difference between NAFTA and the free trade agreement it replaced? My understanding the GTA signed back in the late 80’s is still on the books and would come into effect if the yanked bail on da NAFTA.

NAFTA replaced the FTA. — Garth

#19 Doug t on 01.26.17 at 7:55 pm

Globalism is so yesterday. The European Union will be history in 24 months – borders back up. Mexico will once again be relegated to a dust bowl with resorts. Canada made no effort to develop new industry so we will once again be sitting ducks in trade wars re natural resources. The Lefties are gettin smoked on the barbi due to their ALL encompassing policies that did nothing but make the rich richer. Nationalism, protectionism and more wars coming at ya – word

#20 Chris and NAFTA on 01.26.17 at 8:00 pm

Chris and to quote Russel Peters:

“Be a man, do the right thing.”

Listen to Garth. Tried that rent out BS myself and he is correct.

________________

Garth, Trump will end up walking away from NAFTA unless he gets his way, why we have T2 lap dancing at Trump’s every whim just to keep what we have intact.

T2 has become Trump’s dog in RCA Victor’s “His Master’s Voice”.

His BAT on Mexico, that was a no brainer, highly predictable. One way or the other, Trump was going to make Mexico pay for that wall and then some.

When you hold all the economic cards like the US does, you don’t have to bluff, you call the shots.

Looking forward to him bending the will of China next. That should be entertaining to say the least. You gotta love his BAT. That is one way to repatriate jobs back to the US.

Looks like the worlds largest economy and only remaining superpower is about to throw its weight around in the world and its dependents, will incur its full wrath unless they fall into line.

Crazy, unpredictable times. Steer us thru this agony economically Garth.

bsant

#21 Damifino on 01.26.17 at 8:07 pm

“Price acceleration in Vancouver, Victoria, Toronto and Hamilton indicates that home price growth may be driven by speculation”
—————————-

It ‘may’ be driven by speculation?

Well, I suppose there’s an outside chance. There might be some indications. We have reasons to suspect. Perhaps a shadow of suspicion.

Come on. It is driven by good old fashioned, grab-you-by-the-throat, down and dirty, bully bidding, screw-your-neighbour, all-about-yourself greed.

Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

#22 Warren- the lagging indicator on 01.26.17 at 8:09 pm

Great blog post yesterday, Garth, I could see every word of it.

#23 Smoking Man on 01.26.17 at 8:11 pm

Really find it difficult to put words together lately, Being sober is so underrated, my head just as foggy as ever, not a drop since last Sunday, a personal record for me.

It’s ok I drank 2 weeks worth at my kid’s wedding on Saturday.

At any rate, I missed some good topics this week, got relatives over, sort of rude to be on here if you know what I mean. It wasn’t that hard not to drink this week, I love it, means I’m not an alcoholic so I can continue if I chose to, which I will right after the blood work is done after my annual check up.

The biggest thing I noticed about being sober, I socialize a lot more, which is a good reason to go back to it. Humans are disappointing.

Rant over.

#24 Long-Time Lurker on 01.26.17 at 8:11 pm

This is off topic but a North Korean defector said in The Washington Post that their regime is starting to show signs of popular dissent. This was an ambassador in Europe.

If I recall correctly, Kim Jong Un was educated in Switzerland yet he still isn’t bringing in reforms. Switzerland might have the best democracy on the whole planet.

The commie house of cards collapsing. Everybody who’s tried it knows it doesn’t work. How’s that for a wild card!

#25 AB Boxster on 01.26.17 at 8:12 pm

“Throbbing Manliness” Garth?

We may just see another leftist million lady march in protest.

#26 SimplyPut7 on 01.26.17 at 8:14 pm

This is so simple to fix:

Raise interest rates 1% make down payment mandatory 15% with a CMHC fee 5% of the home price with no amortization period greater than 25 years. Then everyone will be putting 20% down and prove they can pay the mortgage off.

The banks and regulators know what they have to do, they are just afraid to admit this housing market is a ponzi fueled by speculators and not people who plan to use the home as their primary residence.

#27 Freedom First on 01.26.17 at 8:15 pm

To have serenity and peace of mind it is important for me to be living in a state of gratitude at all times.

So, thank you Garth. For today’s Blog has topped off my tank of gratitude to full capacity.

#1
Freedom First
Master of Freedomonics

#28 Don Regan on 01.26.17 at 8:17 pm

Needs Renos

3188 West 20th
Vancouver

LP $3,588,000
Now $2,888,000
Dif $ 700,000

Gotta love those 8s

#29 Don Regan on 01.26.17 at 8:19 pm

Will the Chinese New Year be what all the Sellers are
hoping for.

#30 paulo on 01.26.17 at 8:20 pm

Funny how things change. in my day growing up in a family of 7, my father worked, my mother worked taking care of the home and us kids, we lived in 1100 sq ft homes shared
bedrooms with brothers.Christmas was a family event, a new yellow tonka truck or barbie doll for the sisters was a big score at christmas, not 1200 dollar smart phones. we allways had the annual family vacation, always had food,and clothes. stainless steel only lived on surgical instruments,and commercial kitchens, German or other exotic cars where the preserve of a select few,as where monstrous mansions. have great memories of the old station wagon,i look at young family’s these days both parents working long hours to support a cookie cutter Mc Mansion and a couple of ridiculously expensive cars,in debt up to there ears,and hardly know there kids
what a life. so Chris there you have it be the smarter fool not the greater one!

#31 Nonplused on 01.26.17 at 8:23 pm

Trump will get his wall because it smells of boondoggle.

Maybe Canada should build a wall too. Just around Ottawa though. Well and Edmonton too now.

Unfortunately not only will Mexico pay for the wall but it will mostly be built by Mexicans. And it won’t do any good, the drug runners already have tunnels under key checkpoints. There is always a way around a wall.

Hey did you see the new Big Mac vending machine?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-25/dear-bernie-meet-big-mac-atm-will-replace-all-your-15-hour-fast-food-workers

I’m not sure it’s real and I imagine someone still has to make the Big Macs and put them in but it does raise some interesting questions about where all this automation is going. Chapters is still in business but Blockbuster isn’t and Sears is barely. How many jobs will there actually be in 20 years?

It seems to me the cycle is not virtuous because if we imagine a day where most labor has been replaced by technology, who will have the money to consume the products produced by that technology and where will they get it? Even the self driving car doesn’t seem like it’s all that far fetched anymore and if they can do that on the roads they can certainly automated all the closed circuit driving that occurs in mines and such.

The process has been going on for years, ever since the start of the industrial revolution, but computing power is now making another fundamental change. Before 1970, machines leveraged human potential, which is how the US with only 300,000,000 people became the largest economy on the planet. But since the 70’s machines have slowly been reducing the need for human potential. However at this point they are starting to replace the need for human potential.

And the internet is making all of this even worse. Now, you really only need one service provider, Netflix, and you can get all of your streaming content. In theory one company can provide the service to the whole world. What happens then?

Where this goes is anybody’s guess but it looks like a world some 30 years from now where everything is done by robots (not human looking robots like a sci-fi movie but ones that look like a car that can drive itself or a vending machine) but nobody can buy anything because they don’t have a job.

How does the economy function under such a scenario? The basic underpinning or the economy has been for thousands of years, maybe even more, that human labor was valuable. What do we do once it’s not? Do we tax the owners of the machines and use the money for a basic income? That doesn’t seem to make any sense. Do we nationalize the machines and give everything away for free? Do we raise the taxes on those who are still working designing, building and maintaining the machines at 95% of income?

And what happens when they get AI working so they don’t even need anyone to design the machines? That’s probably a way off yet but I don’t see why it wouldn’t be technically feasible one day.

#32 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.26.17 at 8:26 pm

#2 Vancouver Brit on 01.26.17 at 7:20 pm

“Price acceleration in Vancouver, Victoria, Toronto and Hamilton indicates that home price growth may be driven by speculation”

___________________________________

Really…REALLY?! The average Joe figured that out years ago!

No doubt Garth disagrees though, house prices can’t possibly be affected by foreign speculation.
——————–

Uh, it’s not just foreign speculation… In fact, it’s mostly Canadian speculation. There are tonnes mom and pop speculators snapping up 2, 3, 4, 5 houses, renting and flipping. Fact. Hell, I have an inlaw that owns 32 properties in the golden horseshoe. He’s Canadian.

#33 Show me the Money on 01.26.17 at 8:27 pm

Garth does the rule of 90 include your DCPP?

Of course not. — Garth

#34 I'm stupid on 01.26.17 at 8:32 pm

Fortunately I’m not the president of Mexico. If I were I’d threaten to legalize cocaine, heroine and Meth as long as it wasn’t sold on Mexican streets. The Narcos would pay huge taxes to offset the 20% tax imposed by the US and they would build tunnels under the wall as they already do.

#35 45north on 01.26.17 at 8:32 pm

Chris: I have an opportunity to buy a cash-flowing Real Estate investment in Ottawa.

Chris: you live and work in the GTA. You’ve got four kids. You are 100% busy right now. There’s no down time. Where in God’s name are you going to find the time to look after your investment? In Ottawa. How about a trip to Ottawa just to have a look at this opportunity: cost of gasoline $100, cost of hotel in Ottawa $100, McDonalds $30. Not bad? Don’t forget roaming charges on your cell phone, your wife will call. Here’s some people to meet: property appraiser, real estate agent, painter, carpenter. You’re going to need another trip. In fact count on a trip where somebody doesn’t show. Hell you’re going to make an appointment but not show because there’s a major snow storm. We’re talking Ottawa.

#36 David McDonald on 01.26.17 at 8:34 pm

The US dollar has gone from 18 Mexican pesos to 21 since Trump was in elected thus making Mexican products more competitive. This will compensate for the proposed 20% tax on Mexican imports. American consumers won’t see much of a change in prices and will continue to buy Mexican products.

The loser will be the Mexican people who have less buying power. They will have to cut back on American imports thereby killing American jobs. Net net working Mexicans and Americans will pay for a rusting wall across the continent.

#37 not 1st on 01.26.17 at 8:35 pm

#13 AK on 01.26.17 at 7:43 pm

Watch out for The Fed.

————

Trump will muzzle ol yellen soon as she sticks her nose out of the kennel. Send her back to the ivory tower with her tail between her legs.

#38 cost of illegal immigration on 01.26.17 at 8:38 pm

1) cash: e.g. 2.5 B$ in a year from taxpayers goes to sanctuary cities

2) political cost: politicians, parties supporting illegal immigration harvest political supporters to gain or keep power, financed by taxpayers

3) social cost: the issue creates poisonous division among citizens, at the scale of the entire society, preventing unity to achieve higher goals that need cooperation

#39 David W2 on 01.26.17 at 8:51 pm

I live in Ottawa and the market is rather slow. Home prices the last few years haven’t even kept up with inflation the last few years, going up about 1.2% annualy. Sure, the home prices may seem reasonable by Toronto/Vancouver standards, but the average family still has a tight budget at the end of the month after factoring in care expenses (children / elderly parents). Overall the market is stable, but perhaps 10-15% overpriced.

#40 who pays for the wall on 01.26.17 at 8:51 pm

#12 Kootenay Hippie on 01.26.17 at 7:41 pm

So, Americans will pay for the wall. “People, not imports, pay taxes on imports”

http://cafehayek.com/2017/01/banging-head-wall.html

Unless the tax will be collected at the border, from the exporters, as a pre-condition just to reach the other side of the wall.

If the exporter raises the price from $1 to $1.20, the collected tax will be 20% of $1.20, requiring even higher upfront payment.

#41 NoName on 01.26.17 at 8:52 pm

Close to half of vegetables and fruits in us stores comes from mexico. Let’s eat cake every day, and apple pie on weekends.

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34468.pdf

#42 Andrew Woburn on 01.26.17 at 8:53 pm

#10 Ray Skunk on 01.26.17 at 7:40 pm
#3

How do you spin that? Well, looks like it was already spun.

The truth:
http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/26/politics/top-state-department-officials-asked-to-leave-by-trump-administration/index.html
======================

It is of course possible that CNN has the edge on the truth and it is undeniable that the Washington Post loathes Trump and may, even unconsciously, misinterpret events.

But let’s assume CNN is absolutely accurate and that the departing officials were in fact unceremoniously pushed out by the Trumpsters. So Tillerson, who hasn’t even found the State Department washroom yet, and has no diplomatic experience, is happy to take over one of the most sensitive positions on Earth without even initial guidance from the top officials who have been running the place for years. Would Tillerson the businessman, having carried out a hostile takeover, punt the senior management without finding out what they knew? Is there a question of judgment here? Or is it just that the WaPo actually has it right?

#43 winners and losers on 01.26.17 at 8:56 pm

#36 David McDonald on 01.26.17 at 8:34 pm

The US dollar has gone from 18 Mexican pesos to 21 since Trump was in elected thus making Mexican products more competitive. This will compensate for the proposed 20% tax on Mexican imports. American consumers won’t see much of a change in prices and will continue to buy Mexican products.

The loser will be the Mexican people who have less buying power. They will have to cut back on American imports thereby killing American jobs. Net net working Mexicans and Americans will pay for a rusting wall across the continent.

Except “American people” will have more money to spend and consume locally what used to be export to Mexico.

#44 Snowboid on 01.26.17 at 9:12 pm

#31 Nonplused on 01.26.17 at 8:23 pm…

I beg to differ, Mexico won’t pay for the wall, consumers in the US will end up paying that 20%+ premium on imported goods. Plus the 35% proposed on all future imports!

Here in Arizona over 100,000 jobs rely on imports of food and goods from Mexico.

And knowing how the locals are used to a low cost-of-living, they won’t take too kindly to increases of at least 20%-55%, especially in food.

It could be Drumpfs undoing.

BTW, in our enclave of nearly 5000 homes, there are more RE listings than we’ve ever seen – including several Canadians within a block or two of our home.

Of the three on our block, two were listed and sold (including ours) in the last month.

We will miss our winter retreat in the sun and sand, but still plan to avoid snow at all costs – just renting instead of owning!

#45 conan on 01.26.17 at 9:15 pm

20 % tariff on Mexican goods entering the USA means that Americans will be paying for the wall.

Anyone picking up on the goof factor yet on this administration?

Just wanted to say thanks for your blog Garth. You make finances cool. Is that possible? Check it…..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UsHDwOVk2A

#46 Linda on 01.26.17 at 9:17 pm

Re: Chris – while space may be a squeeze, 1500 square feet for a family of six used to be considered quite spacious back in the 50’s. Palatial, even. Somehow over the intervening decades as family sizes decreased, the amount of space required to live ‘in comfort’ increased. These days any house smaller than 2,500 square feet is considered ‘small space living’. Crazy, especially when one considers how much more work it is to clean the larger space.

#47 Pete on 01.26.17 at 9:18 pm

NONPLUSED ‘How does the economy function under such a scenario? The basic underpinning or the economy has been for thousands of years, maybe even more, that human labor was valuable. What do we do once it’s not?’
——————————————–
Agenda 21. Look it up; it’s not a real estate company.
And read the 7th verse of “The Gods of the Copybook Headings”

#48 Koop Aid on 01.26.17 at 9:18 pm

Seems like an easy call today, too many unknown variables regarding policy with our largestest trading partner to take the jump.

If Chris worked in Ottawa, the equation changes, there’s some really nice RE off the Rideau Canal, rent 2 live in one, there’s some nice tax advantages, ownership advantages to a very long term, think 20years, there’s upside. 6Hrs away, can’t live in it, forget it, no way.

I hate to think of what fangled policy will emerge tomorrow in a border taxed Canada, Poloz will be pressured to lower interest rates as jobs disappear, as a lower loonie emerges, inflation will follow… though at what rates, how policy south of us and here is shaped will determine the impact of real estate assets here, in Ottawa and across the land.

#49 The Dude on 01.26.17 at 9:18 pm

It always seems so rational not to buy, but in the Vancouver condo market rents continue to go up. A lot of people have been priced out of the market which only puts more pressure on rent prices. And the vacancy rate is so low that landlords call the shots. Something Garth hasn’t really touched on. It’s been like this for the last 10 years. Lineups of young people trying to rent literally anything.

#50 We need a lower 50c dollar on 01.26.17 at 9:21 pm

#36

That’s why we need the Canadian dollar to go lower than 50 cents if we plan to be competitive. Look on the bright side of a 40 or 30 cent Loonie—More exports = more jobs.

Poloz was correct that a 70 cent loonie is overvalued. Canada needs a 50 cent loonie in order to thrive. Time for the BoC to cut interest rates to 0.10% to stimulate spending and real estate in Toronto and Vancouver.

Canadians should learn to live with a 30 cent Loonie in the future. Our dollar is overvalued and causing job loss in Ontario.

Ideally today, our Loonie should only be valued at 40 to 50 cents today to the USA dollar. The Bank of Canada should aim for a 30 cent or even a 25 cent loonie to prevent an economic collapse in the GTA real estate market.

#51 Dobermanduke on 01.26.17 at 9:22 pm

Hey #30 paulo,

Sounds like my childhood exactly and I couldn’t agree with you more!

#52 pete on 01.26.17 at 9:23 pm

Ray Skunk on 01.26.17 at 7:40 pm
#3

How do you spin that? Well, looks like it was already spun.

The truth:
http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/26/politics/top-state-department-officials-asked-to-leave-by-trump-administration/index.html
—————————————————————–

No spin needed. Trump told them resign or your fired. The corporate elite media has done a number on the weak minded masses. Trump is a hero. Believe me when I say I hate CONservatives more then anything. Trump is cleaning house of the vested interests who have bankrupt America. Trump is making the US great again. What’s good for the US will be good for us. Canada , Britain and US are the good old boys club. If you can’t see that then i’m sorry go watch fake new by the corporate elite media. Trump right or wrong is the first politician who is doing what he said he would do. Not only that he exposed politicians as the laziest and most useless as Trump accomplished more in a week then Harper or T2 would do in 8 years. If only Canadians would elect a leader like that. No Kevin O’Leary would be another anti Canadian and pro elite politician.

Pete, go away. You sound like an 11-year-old comic book worshipper. — Garth

#53 j shum on 01.26.17 at 9:23 pm

You know, I don’t know if I got the math right but this is exactly the thing. Even in yee old peg where it seems everyone is a landlord I am thinking the profit margins are slim if you buy now. So you are counting on the long term appreciation which might not be so good considering the appricetion that happened in the last 10 years. I am screwed from all angles. Let’s hope the stock market thing works out for me

#54 Victor V on 01.26.17 at 9:24 pm

Seer predicts ominous Year of the Rooster for Canadian real estate

http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/seer-predicts-ominous-year-of-the-rooster-for-canadian-real-estate-220071.aspx

Ahead of the Year of the Fire Rooster (which starts January 28), astrologer Sherman Tai offered sober advice for hopeful Chinese investors who are looking for a second, more celestial opinion.

“Some stars are good for property, and some stars are bad for property,” Tai said, as published by the South China Morning Post. “This year, the bad star is going into the house.”

#55 pete on 01.26.17 at 9:31 pm

I’m stupid on 01.26.17 at 8:32 pm
Fortunately I’m not the president of Mexico. If I were I’d threaten to legalize cocaine, heroine and Meth as long as it wasn’t sold on Mexican streets. The Narcos would pay huge taxes to offset the 20% tax imposed by the US and they would build tunnels under the wall as they already do.
—————————————————————–

Mexico is stupid as they could set up an Amsterdam in wonderful hot and sunny weather. They save large sums of money fighting the drug lords and gaining a huge windfall from selling drugs. I would still keep family friendly spots like cancun free of drugs but the idea is there. They could turn mexico is nice safe place to vacation and or do drugs. The drug lords would be the biggest losers as they would become obsolete

#56 InvestorsFriend on 01.26.17 at 9:42 pm

What assets to include in rule of 90

#33 Show me the Money on 01.26.17 at 8:27 pm
Garth does the rule of 90 include your DCPP?

Of course not. — Garth

***********************************
Garth, can you confirm that response he said DCPP, Defined contribution pension plan, that is his own money no?

Well, he got a tax refund for contributing it and so the amount of the asset should be reduced by tax. And it can’t be accessed at will since it is a pension. Is that the reason to exclude it as a financial asset?

Surely it is worth something?

My formula is based on assets a person controls, can access, liquidate or employ. A corporate pension plan does not fall into that category. — Garth

#57 WUL on 01.26.17 at 9:44 pm

Trump’s goofy wall (which will never be built) should be built mui pronto. Certainly before people in Mexico discover boats and planes.

#58 InvestorsFriend on 01.26.17 at 9:46 pm

Flawed Net Worth Statements are Common

Often in the newspaper you will see net worth statements that show RRSP and margin account assets.

These are always flawed by not deducting tax. Need to deduct about 40% for RRSP.

Margin account, it is harder to say but need to deduct about 20% of any unrealised capital gains in there.

Sorry, you are poorer than you thought.

Any business with a margin account is required by auditors to show a deferred tax liability for unrealized capital gains when it comes to investments it holds. Same applies to any properly prepared net worth statement. Sorry.

#59 DON on 01.26.17 at 9:49 pm

Chris – Hang in there…patience and enjoy the time you don’t commute hanging out with your kids…Well worth it! Grow them well and retire early.

Be patient and wait for the next wave (downturn in housing, uptick in stocks etc)

Jumping in the crazy market may feel the right thing to do and you may make some money (if you can flip)but think of the consequences, coupled with the dire warnings from credible institutions (not blindly trusted though) but their warnings are sensible nonetheless. Think about who’s pumping the market and take a temperature check on their credibility.

This cycle will happen over and over and over again until we evolve or get better informed. Let’s take the principle of ‘safety in numbers’. If everyone is doing it…it must be safe. When money is involved greed and fear can take over, essentially turning the thinking part of the brain off (yes even the smartest people).

Calgary/Edmonton/Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Nova Scotia were warnings, Vancouver is the last warning for GTA.

Not worth the stress, inability to move for a better job, and better deal for your family. Stay mobile>>>>>not overly stressed – think long term.

#60 ABC network tonight on 01.26.17 at 9:52 pm

In the new season opening ABC runs 3 television shows in which the US President/elect is assassinated.

Do you believe in coincidences?

#61 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.26.17 at 9:58 pm

#8 Hurray For Policy Intervention! on 01.26.17 at 7:37 pm

Normally, I don’t support a lot of government intervention, but with everyone in the GTA sick with the house flu, some good old fashion medicine is due! People are so stupid, propelling themselves into debt overload – unfortunately all these financial illiterates need “big brother government” to take away the bunch bowl, because the people of this region have lost both their sanity.
————–

You have it backwards. It is government intervention in the first place (CMHC) that is facilitating this insanity.

Remove CMHC, and allow lenders to take the risk… See how fast sanity returns to the Canadian RE market.

#62 yorkville renter on 01.26.17 at 10:01 pm

#7 – I own Toronto RE that makes money every month… mixed use, bought low, rents and TMI are wonderful. RE is just a mathematical equation… if its great, buy… if not, skip it.

as my name suggests, I rent where I live

#63 Bottoms_Up on 01.26.17 at 10:05 pm

$2000 rent for a 500k house is not bad. But don’t forget if you own, you build equity. So your $3000 monthly cost to own may be closer to $2000 once factoring in equity.

So really you are trading being a renter for not having to do maintenance and cover repairs.

#64 For those about to flop... on 01.26.17 at 10:06 pm

Light Pink Snow falling in Vancouver.

These guys might get off with a light smack on the wrist or find a way to make the monthly.

They paid 473k for an 80’s condo at the summit,more than the bloated assessment that come later in the year.

Might just have to pay for some dry cleaning…

M42BC

411-570 E 8th Avenue, Vancouver

Oct 18:$578,000
Jan 26: $544,000
Change: – 34000.00 -6%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMVFFNg==

#65 InvestorsFriend on 01.26.17 at 10:07 pm

Strategy for when labor has little or no value?

Someone above asked: “The basic underpinning or the economy has been for thousands of years, maybe even more, that human labor was valuable. What do we do once it’s not?’”

***********************************
I mentioned this a number of times. If that scenario is coming at us, then you must become an owner of factories and such. You must own capital. You must save and invest in equities (with a side of fixed income for balance unless you are really brave). It’s quite simple.

In that world there will also be tons more wealth redistribution. Government and redistribution are not ever going away.

Best to be on the side that owns the means of production rather than rely on redistribution.

Meanwhile try to have valuable skills that will be among the last to be automated or pushed down to minimum wage. Many of the trades qualify. If you have a good job but know that there are many qualified people for that job unemployed then keep your head down and hang on tight to that job. Most good jobs are hard to get but also hard to lose. (Think government worker)

#66 Timberrr on 01.26.17 at 10:09 pm

“China’s Army of Global Homebuyers Is Suddenly Short on Cash” — Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-26/world-s-biggest-real-estate-buyers-are-suddenly-short-on-cash

#67 dgb on 01.26.17 at 10:15 pm

hi chris…i gotta agree with #30…I was born and raised in 960 square ft. had 2 parents, 7 brothers and 2 sisters…2 bedrooms up and two down…1 bathroom…life was fun..but mom had everyone organized with a time slot.baths were once a week ..no shower till I left home( oh how I appreciate my short showers now!!!..meals were always together..full of talk and laughter…no great holidays but summer was spent at waterton park every weekend..one trip with 3 different kids each august for school supplies and clothes to kalispel,montana….we were a Real Happy Family….knew everyone’s likes and dislikes and everything else about them…love them all dearly still to this day…you have 1500 sq ft and total 6 people …organize …this should be a cinch….they will all leave home before you know it and you will have cash for education along the way…more space is a lot more money …listen to garth…and good luck

#68 Kevin's Fanzone on 01.26.17 at 10:38 pm

#57 WUL on 01.26.17 at 9:44 pm
Trump’s goofy wall (which will never be built) should be built mui pronto. Certainly before people in Mexico discover boats and planes.

__

Trump will not get the nomination
Trump will not be elected
Trump will not make the inauguration
Trump’s goofy wall (which will never be built)

there seems to be a running theme here before the election and now after the election.

#69 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.26.17 at 10:40 pm

#66 Timberrr on 01.26.17 at 10:09 pm

“China’s Army of Global Homebuyers Is Suddenly Short on Cash” — Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-26/world-s-biggest-real-estate-buyers-are-suddenly-short-on-cash
———-

From the article:

“The change spooking Zheng and his compatriots came in a statement from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Dec. 31, hours before the reset of Chinese citizens’ annual foreign currency quotas. Among other requirements, SAFE said all buyers of foreign exchange must now sign a pledge that they won’t use their $50,000 quotas for offshore property investment. Violators will be added to a government watch list, denied access to foreign currency for three years and subjected to money-laundering investigations, SAFE said.”

Ouch!

#70 Troubling Times on 01.26.17 at 11:02 pm

“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.” – Hannah Arendt

“Congress shall make no law … abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press….” – First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution

“I’m going to open up our libel laws [sic] so when [journalists] write purposely negative and horrible and false articles, we can sue them, and win lots of money.” – Donald Trump

“Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.” – George Orwell

#71 Backmarker on 01.26.17 at 11:10 pm

42 Andrew Woburn on 01.26.17 at 8:53 pm

Tillerson really needs that “expert” advice like how to ignore additional security requests or how to set up a bathroom server at home.

#72 cramar on 01.26.17 at 11:11 pm

Saw these Canadian geniuses on news tonight. Wish more of this happens in Canada. We would be more of an innovation nation that just hewers of wood and drawers of water.

http://vadersystems.com/#story

#73 Doug in London on 01.26.17 at 11:27 pm

I agree fully with Derek Ross, post #1 (first!). Put the money into REITs, and use the payouts to pay your rent. That way, you can still be a property owner. And now the punch line, you get the diversity of owning property in many cities and towns instead of in just one place, and NO MORTGAGE!

#74 InvestorsFriend on 01.26.17 at 11:40 pm

Blame CMHC

“Remove CMHC, and allow lenders to take the risk… See how fast sanity returns to the Canadian RE market.”

***********************************
It’s hard to see CMHC as the real problem when it exists in the low house cost areas of the country and when it has existed for decades.

CMHC has actually tightened a LOT in the last five years or so. (No 35 then no 30 year mortgages) Lots of things have been done to cool the market but in some cities insanity prevailed.

Insanity is FAR more correlated with low rates and just momentum (leading to expectations) than the existence of CMHC (zero correlation)

#75 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.27.17 at 12:17 am

Trump is bullying Mexico with a 20% on its exports to the States.
China has about 100 times more exports.
But like all bullies, he’s not gonna take on a nation of 1.3 billion people.
Coward.

#76 Freedom First on 01.27.17 at 12:44 am

Yes. Illegal Immigration. I have read all of the arguments from the people justifying Illegal immigrants this, that, and the other right.

I can’t talk with people who think like that. For them, right is wrong and wrong is right. They have no room for reason.

Illegal is not legal. Fact.

Trump is just another softie compared to me. Or maybe not. We shall see.

#77 Statsfreak on 01.27.17 at 12:47 am

#57 WUL

#57 WUL on 01.26.17 at 9:44 pm
Trump’s goofy wall (which will never be built) should be built mui pronto. Certainly before people in Mexico discover boats and planes……

…. AND THOSE CUTE LITTLE DRONES (lets see how they stop thousands of those flying over the wall 24/7)

#78 InvestorsFriend on 01.27.17 at 1:05 am

What Answer Would You Like?

It’s interesting how the answer to most financial and other questions in life always depends on what answer the person asking the question or the person answering it wants it to be. Actual truth is seldom an impediment.

No wonder people end up arguing so much and debating facts.

#79 Wonderful not so free Canada on 01.27.17 at 1:14 am

DELETED

#80 Deplorable Dude on 01.27.17 at 1:17 am

#42 Andrew Woburn

It’s simply draining the swamp. Isn’t just Tillerson, but all of Trumps advisors determining this.

If you can accept the framework that the MSN is in fact not impartial, but in fact are liberal mouthpieces it all becomes clear, in particular that CNN is a conduit for the State Dept, and the WP a conduit for the CIA.

Did you know the owner of the WP, Jeff Bezo has a $600M contract with the CIA?

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2017/01/13/cia-officials-continue-efforts-to-marginalize-president-trump-via-washington-post/

#81 I don't know on 01.27.17 at 1:54 am

What a load of C$#@. The CMHC and government have no interest in curtailing house prices. They just want to make it appear they do. Everything (almost) they’ve done the last eight years proves it.

#82 Pete on 01.27.17 at 2:14 am

Pete, go away. You sound like an 11-year-old comic book worshipper. — Garth
———————————–
Hey Garth, why do you let 2 different blog-dogs use the same name. This other guy should be pete2 or something.

#83 NoName on 01.27.17 at 2:19 am

I N T E R I S T I N G !!!

Around this time, in early 2014, a young assistant professor named Aleksandr Kogan approached Kosinski. He said he had received an inquiry from a company interested in Kosinski’s methods. They apparently wanted to access the MyPersonality database, Kosinski remembers. To what purpose, Kogan couldn’t say: there were strict secrecy stipulations. At first, Kosinski and his team considered the offer—it would have meant a lot of money for his institute. But he hesitated. Finally, Kosinski remembers, Kogan divulged the name of the company: SCL, Strategic Communications Laboratories. Kosinski googled them [so did Antidote. Here. —ed.]: “[We are] a global election management agency,” said the company website [really, the website has even creepier language on it than that. “Behavioral change communication”? Go look already. —ed.]. SCL offers marketing based on a “psychographic targeting” model. With an emphasis on “election management” and political campaigns? Disturbed, Kosinski clicked through the pages. What kind of company is this? And what do they have planned for the United States?

https://antidotezine.com/2017/01/22/trump-knows-you/

#84 Nonplused on 01.27.17 at 2:27 am

#40 who pays for the wall

You don’t understand economics. The end user always pays all taxes. You maybe drive a car? When you bought that car, did you think the corporation that built it paid the corporate taxes? No they didn’t, they added it in to the price you paid. They could not have built the car otherwise.

Folks, corporations cannot pay taxes. Only people can, including the people who own the corporations. Taxing at the corporate level is just a way to put more fingers in to the pie to make sure the government gets as many plums out as they can, and corporations are an easier target than going after each shareholder.

#44 Snowboid

I meant it as a bit of a joke in that in that area of the world most construction workers are Mexican and they will reap most of the benefits of this useless project.

#47 Pete

Umm, that sounds like an undertaking. Maybe tomorrow.

#65 InvestorsFriend

That was me. But thinking the process through a bit more what do we do when Google owns everything and nobody else has any money? You might be able to get by a while owning Google stock or your own machines but that won’t last forever. If human labor is no longer valuable humans are no longer valuable. It’s a brave new world, and the end doesn’t look pretty at this point.

#85 Metaxa on 01.27.17 at 2:28 am

@ #70 Troubling Times

“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.” – Hannah Arendt

“Congress shall make no law … abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press….” – First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution

“I’m going to open up our libel laws [sic] so when [journalists] write purposely negative and horrible and false articles, we can sue them, and win lots of money.” – Donald Trump

“Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.” – George Orwell

To which I would add that if someone’s political stance requires preventing scientists and the heads of governmental agencies from informing you about your own planet or your own country then that isn’t politics it is oppression.

I have friends/acquaintances in Washington, California, Colorado, North Carolina and Maine. We correspond on matters ranging from gardening to business dealings to our kids. 100% of them, regardless of political orientation are simply aghast at what is happening.

We are only getting the skim off the surface too…

This represents real opportunity for Canada, I only hope that our current government is capable and able enough to take full advantage.

#86 Self Directed on 01.27.17 at 2:51 am

#49 The Dude on 01.26.17 at 9:18 pm
……………………….
This is why it is a mistake for our government to meddle with the real estate market. They have done it for years and even more so recently. They should let the free market decide the going rates for house pricing. We would not be in this mess if not for CMHC, foreign tax, first time home buyers programs, stress tests,down payment rules…. All meddling that does damage hard to reverse. The only cure is a correction.

#87 NoName on 01.27.17 at 4:19 am

meanwhile in cccp, MUST READ.

https://antidotezine.com/2016/09/09/the-fight-is-in-the-countryside/

#88 LH on 01.27.17 at 6:43 am

Today’s story is similar to mine

I am 32
I have 4 kids (7,6,4,2)
But
I own several SFHs in C01 and C02
Worth eight figures now net of debt
How?
Because I started early (at age 22)
And then I kept on buying
I bought at age 22, 25, 26, 28, and 30
Trend my friend
And the enemy of blog dogs salting away their money in the orange guy

#89 Ace Goodheart on 01.27.17 at 6:53 am

Hope Chris likes driving out to Ottawa. It’s actually a nice drive in the summer if you take highway 7. Not so nice if you take 401.

I have a rental property so I can tell him what’s going to happen. His number one problem will be plumbing. Tenants destroy this. No idea why. Roughly every other month, there is a plumbing problem. Fortunately mine is down the street so I just pull out the old plumbing kit, wander over and diagnose, then make a quick trip down to Home Depot for supplies.

Every time something breaks, the tenants will call him. Then he is driving out to Ottawa again. No idea why people do this. Fools and their money are soon parted I guess.

On the Trumpster stage, this person just set in course a complete breakdown in relations between USA and Mexico, two strategic partners who have very close ties on national security and who do billions of dollars in trade with each other each year. Conservative estimates are that the USA will lose between 5 and 15 million jobs as a result of Trump effectively closing the Mexican border to trade with his 20% import tax.

This is what i was afraid of with Trump. He just does stuff, for reasons that only make sense to him, causes massive destruction and hardship by his actions, and then sits on what he did and makes it personal, refusing to budge because the decision is personal to him.

#90 Mishuko on 01.27.17 at 7:25 am

Cp24 Rollin out news from turd that land transfer tax has gone from 3k to 11k lol… numb nuts. It’s a % and it’s pretty low compared to other municipalities

#91 ROTFL on 01.27.17 at 8:14 am

#74 InvestorsFriend — “Insanity is FAR more correlated with low rates and just momentum (leading to expectations) than the existence of CMHC (zero correlation)”

CMHC allowed those with less-than-stellar credit and less-than-large downpayments to get in on the insanity, even for 1-4 unit rentals and for vacation properties. You can see it especially in pricing of rental properties. 1-4 units, pretty insane. 5+, less insane, and once you get above 10 units or so, they’re priced like a low growth cash flowing investment.

More eligible players and more available leverage = more insanity, and CMHC enabled that.

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.27.17 at 8:16 am

Well,
I see the increasingly desperate, unelected Prime Minister of Britain is the first lickspittle to grace the White House.
One hopes she wont have to pull a “Lewinsky” to get a trade agreement with The Donald before Brexit crushes the British economy.
But
Desperate times call for desperate measures….
Stiff upper lip and all that tommy rot

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.27.17 at 8:19 am

@#82 Pete
“Hey Garth, why do you let 2 different blog-dogs use the same name. This other guy should be pete2 or something.”
********************************************

maybe he couldnt tell the difference?

#94 IHCTD9 on 01.27.17 at 8:31 am

#31 Nonplused on 01.26.17 at 8:23 pm

…Where this goes is anybody’s guess but it looks like a world some 30 years from now where everything is done by robots (not human looking robots like a sci-fi movie but ones that look like a car that can drive itself or a vending machine) but nobody can buy anything because they don’t have a job…
_________________________________________

I ponder the same questions. I start by factoring in what is most likely:

1. Automation will eliminate 90+% of human labour eventually.

2. The goods produced by software and machines have an incredible potential to be cheap.

3. Those millions who once had good paying jobs, will now have to get by on much less income.

4. No manufacturing of any kind will take place unless there is a customer base that can afford to buy the products produced.

There will be a race to automate because whoever gets up and running first will get to keep charging the old prices while having almost no paycheues to hand out. This is happening right now. They’ll make billions until everyone else catches up and can actually compete, and thus the price decline will begin. The declines in cost can and will fall massively as they will have to. I expect the prices charged will reflect the ability of the customer base to afford them just like always. Before long, there will be no more money to be made in producing goods than there ever was, and the same pressures as always will be the main drivers of price. Lights-Out manufacturing plants will still go broke and close up unable to make a margin, large corps will lose much of their political handouts as their human element dwindles.

We’ve already seen the same basic thing already happen. The globalized economy caused manufacturing costs and retail pricing of consumer goods to fall off a cliff, which was good because many good paying jobs ended with off-shoring. Today we see more stuff for sale than you can shake a stick at, much of it is dirt cheap, and if anything, it’s MORE affordable to buy today for the average dude than it ever was. We throw stuff in the trash when it breaks these days – it’s cheaper to just get a new one.

I think this will carry on, and the affordability of consumer goods will continue to hold.

The real question is the cost of running government. Costs only go up here, their wages never sink, their spending retreats little, and for short periods of time. Hard to automate a politician. Here is where there will be strife. Revenues will be pounded into the ground due to incomes falling off a cliff, taxation of automated plants will have to be handled with care as they could relocate to a deserted island if they wanted to. Governments have traditionally resisted cuts to services and their wages. What will they do? History says they will try to carve it out of the beleaguered citizenry, I say that’ll drive revenues down even more just like it did in Greece.

Even today, we see government borrowing and taxing more every year, yet it is always coming up short. Lost manufacturing has impacted them as much as the rest of us. IMHO, the cost of running government will be the major problem for the 1st world in the future.

#95 maxx on 01.27.17 at 8:35 am

#13 AK on 01.26.17 at 7:43 pm

“All the Trump attention over the past month, is neglecting The Fed.

Watch out for The Fed.”

Starting with next Tues-Wed:

https://www.google.ca/search?q=FOMC+dates&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&gws_rd=cr&ei=EkqLWNChEefLjwT1zYToDg#q=fomc+meeting+schedule+2017

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.27.17 at 8:36 am

@#60 ABC network tonight

Congrats.
The key words you used in your comment just got you bumped up to a new level of surveillance by the NSA, CIA, CSIS and several other agencies that none of us have ever heard of……..
You should have finished with an exultation to a muslim deity….That would have been the topping on the cake

#97 John on 01.27.17 at 9:07 am

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-26/world-s-biggest-real-estate-buyers-are-suddenly-short-on-cash

Garth. For your info

#98 Bat Flipper on 01.27.17 at 9:12 am

Why people like buying rental properties over REITs?

1. Leverage. Try logging onto your discount brokerage and buying 700,000 worth of REITs with a tiny deposit and low interest rates.

2. FOMO – If I don’t buy this great investment, then someone else will and they will get rich instead of me.

#99 Economics Major? on 01.27.17 at 9:14 am

Do you suppose that Trump has considered that part (or all) of the incidence of his 20% tariff (tax) on Mexican imports might fall on the American consumer?

Do you suppose that he has modeled the price elasticities of the demand and supply curves of Mexican imports, and calculated the deadweight loss from the tariff? What about income and substitution effects?

Did Trump really graduate from the Wharton School of Finance with a bachelor of science degree in economics? How is that possible?

#100 Penny Henny on 01.27.17 at 9:28 am

“The likelihood of policy intervention to address housing risks in Toronto is increasing,” RBC economists warn.

……………….

This fake news just in. If you own a home in Toronto and if the street address ends with a 7, the government will force you to sell your home this year. The will provide ample supply and reign in prices.

#101 Leo Trollstoy on 01.27.17 at 9:31 am

When posters talk politics, Trump, Mexico, etc. they sound like they just lost 50 IQ points

#102 Pre-retiree on 01.27.17 at 9:39 am

The world according to Garth: “This year the hammer falls on Toronto real estate, it says. Just as the BC government eviscerated the Vancouver market and hoovered out the speculators, causing a serious erosion, so the feds are about to whack the GTA after the 2016 stupidity.
“The likelihood of policy intervention to address housing risks in Toronto is increasing,” RBC economists warn.”
__________________

That sounds ominous. Not for me personnally but for all the consequences when it comes which will probably (likely) affect the broader economy.
Anyhow, I am really curious to know what they may have in mind, or what Garth thinks they may have in mind. A Canada-wide tax on foreign buyers? That should please the Chinese government now trying to diminish the flow of money out of China.

#103 James on 01.27.17 at 9:54 am

#99 Economics Major? on 01.27.17 at 9:14 am

Do you suppose that Trump has considered that part (or all) of the incidence of his 20% tariff (tax) on Mexican imports might fall on the American consumer?

Do you suppose that he has modeled the price elasticities of the demand and supply curves of Mexican imports, and calculated the deadweight loss from the tariff? What about income and substitution effects?

Did Trump really graduate from the Wharton School of Finance with a bachelor of science degree in economics? How is that possible?
………………………………………………………………………
Anything is possible when your father is a multi-millionaire! cha-ching $$$$ talk.

#104 James on 01.27.17 at 10:12 am

#23 Smoking Man on 01.26.17 at 8:11 pm
Really find it difficult to put words together lately, Being sober is so underrated, my head just as foggy as ever, not a drop since last Sunday, a personal record for me.
It’s ok I drank 2 weeks worth at my kid’s wedding on Saturday.
At any rate, I missed some good topics this week, got relatives over, sort of rude to be on here if you know what I mean. It wasn’t that hard not to drink this week, I love it, means I’m not an alcoholic so I can continue if I chose to, which I will right after the blood work is done after my annual check up.
The biggest thing I noticed about being sober, I socialize a lot more, which is a good reason to go back to it. Humans are disappointing.
Rant over.
………………………………………………………………
Since humans are disappointing try talking to your dog!
I find my German Sheppard to be quite intelligent and he has my back. Heis my own personal body guard.
P.S. I hope your son is in good health after his loss of the poor soul last week.

#105 James on 01.27.17 at 10:22 am

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.27.17 at 8:16 am

Well,
I see the increasingly desperate, unelected Prime Minister of Britain is the first lickspittle to grace the White House.
One hopes she wont have to pull a “Lewinsky” to get a trade agreement with The Donald before Brexit crushes the British economy.
But
Desperate times call for desperate measures….
Stiff upper lip and all that tommy rot
…………………………………………………………….
No sex please, We’re British!

#106 James on 01.27.17 at 10:33 am

#85 Metaxa on 01.27.17 at 2:28 am

@ #70 Troubling Times

“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.” – Hannah Arendt

“Congress shall make no law … abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press….” – First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution

“I’m going to open up our libel laws [sic] so when [journalists] write purposely negative and horrible and false articles, we can sue them, and win lots of money.” – Donald Trump

“Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.” – George Orwell
……………………………………………………………….
To which I would add that if someone’s political stance requires preventing scientists and the heads of governmental agencies from informing you about your own planet or your own country then that isn’t politics it is oppression.
I have friends/acquaintances in Washington, California, Colorado, North Carolina and Maine. We correspond on matters ranging from gardening to business dealings to our kids. 100% of them, regardless of political orientation are simply aghast at what is happening.
We are only getting the skim off the surface too…
This represents real opportunity for Canada, I only hope that our current government is capable and able enough to take full advantage.
…………………………………………………………………
The master of deliberately euphemistic, ambiguous, or obscure language is now in control. It is a dangerous time.

#107 ROTFL on 01.27.17 at 10:39 am

#84 Nonplused — “You don’t understand economics. The end user always pays all taxes. You maybe drive a car? When you bought that car, did you think the corporation that built it paid the corporate taxes? No they didn’t, they added it in to the price you paid. They could not have built the car otherwise.”

What about second order effects? Tax canned salmon, and consumers will buy less of it, and more canned tuna. Tax Mexican-built Fords, consumers will buy fewer of them, and more American built Fords.

Don’t worry, Trump doesn’t get this either, as his quick wall-cost math showed. He thinks he can slap a 20% tariff on Mexico and the US will import just as much stuff from there.

And the Republicans in congress want to lower taxes on business. If consumers pay it all anyway, why bother? Politically, it’d be better to lower taxes on voters by the equivalent amount. Hmm…

#108 Renter's Revenge! on 01.27.17 at 10:41 am

#101 Leo Trollstoy on 01.27.17 at 9:31 am
When posters talk politics, Trump, Mexico, etc. they sound like they just lost 50 IQ points

That’s because they did:

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/leading-emotional-intelligence/201104/where-did-my-iq-points-go

#109 maxx on 01.27.17 at 11:04 am

#88 LH on 01.27.17 at 6:43 am

“Today’s story is similar to mine”……..

“And the enemy of blog dogs salting away their money in the orange guy”

Mmmmm…….no.
And knock yourself out with “the trend”, friend.

#110 Euro observer on 01.27.17 at 11:08 am

#19 Doug t on 01.26.17 at 7:55 pm
Globalism is so yesterday. The European Union will be history in 24 months – borders back up. Mexico will once again be relegated to a dust bowl with resorts. Canada made no effort to develop new industry so we will once again be sitting ducks in trade wars re natural resources. The Lefties are gettin smoked on the barbi due to their ALL encompassing policies that did nothing but make the rich richer. Nationalism, protectionism and more wars coming at ya – word

———————————–

The European Union will not be history in 24 months.

The monetary aspect of it/the Euro might be, but not the free trade, ability to work everywhere legally. It is actually much better than NAFTA.

I can work legally in 28 countries, including Switzerland, with no work/entry visa with my Eu passport.

Free universities, health care system is premium based in most places but pretty moderate/cheap fees. Great transportation. No property bubbles. Great weather in Spain, Greece, France, Italy.

#111 Blobby on 01.27.17 at 11:09 am

I just moved into a new rental

On the day of contract sign, I noticed my new landlord had changed the lease term to 1 year, not what we’d agreed to. “In case property market changes” he said.

So if prices start to drop, I’m out in my ear.. great.

I’d had told him to screw himself, but I’ve already noticed my old place… so I would’ve been homeless if I’d done that!

Joys.

#112 Euro observer on 01.27.17 at 11:13 am

#19 Doug t on 01.26.17 at 7:55 pm

Canada will not be impacted by Trump, the economies are too integrated.

Trump will be just the excuse for the implosion of the ridiculous property and credit bubble, the certain outcome of which (short of an immediate huge and long lasting commodity boom) will be an inflationary depression.

With no jobs.

#113 For those about to flop... on 01.27.17 at 11:17 am

Pink Snow falling in Surrey.

These guys didn’t take much off, because they can’t afford to.

Bought for 885k at the peak last year,the lack of schools in Surrey is not their main problem…

M42BC

14510 78 Avenue, Surrey

Oct 20:$987,000
Jan 26: $977,000
Change: – 10000.00 -1%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA3N1FaMg==

#114 jaybee on 01.27.17 at 11:37 am

If Chris must be relieved of his so called “guilt” for not owning real estate he should buy some REITS or a REIT etf. No clogged toilets, tenants from hell or bounced rent checks…as part of a globally diversified and balanced portfolio that is.

#115 Cohen on 01.27.17 at 11:51 am

Stop reading the REIN website under the covers

————————-

Hahaha, so true.

Don Campbell will never stop shilling.

“Oh there’s a new Tim Hortons being built only 10 kms from Timbuktu! Come to our “free” meeting and we will teach you how profit from this amazing opportunity. Oh by the way, buy our “tools” for success for only a couple thousand loonies.”

LOL!

#116 Doug in London on 01.27.17 at 11:52 am

@Bat Flipper, post #98:
Who says you have to go and buy 700 grand worth of REITs all at once? I have had better results topping up my holdings when they were on sale, such as in 2013 and this time last year. Unlike buying a house, which will cost you many hundred thousand dollars and likely leave you saddled with a mortgage, you can buy smaller amounts of REITS. That’s a lot easier than buying a fractional amount of a house. Also, you can sell of some of your holdings when prices of REITs go up. Again, try selling off a fractional amount of a house.

Last but not least, when you own REITs you don’t have to do ANYTHING when any troubles arise. I’ve gone away travelling for 2 months at a time (a year ago I was in Mumbai), not even thinking about the REITs and yet somehow they just hum along paying out generous distributions. That non functioning toilet or furnace, or tenants that refuse to pay the rent or trash the place are someone else’s problem, not mine. Say, where do I catch that overnight train to Goa?

#117 Cohen on 01.27.17 at 11:52 am

…then Don’s usually gang will show you how real estate values in Calgary near a new Tim Hortons rose greatly during the spring of 2009 and why you need to spend thousands to learn how YOU TOO CAN MAKE PROFITS INVESTING IN REAL ESTATE NEAR THE NEXT TIM HORTONS!!!

#118 Euro observer on 01.27.17 at 11:58 am

#91 ROTFL on 01.27.17 at 8:14 am
#74 InvestorsFriend — “Insanity is FAR more correlated with low rates and just momentum (leading to expectations) than the existence of CMHC (zero correlation)”

CMHC allowed those with less-than-stellar credit and less-than-large downpayments to get in on the insanity, even for 1-4 unit rentals and for vacation properties. You can see it especially in pricing of rental properties. 1-4 units, pretty insane. 5+, less insane, and once you get above 10 units or so, they’re priced like a low growth cash flowing investment.

More eligible players and more available leverage = more insanity, and CMHC enabled that.

—————————-

CMHC is a financial terrorist that jeopardizes the stability of the financial system. Period.

It should be abolished.

#119 For those about to flop... on 01.27.17 at 12:05 pm

The people in the GTA that still believe that things can only go up might want to have a look at this page.

It is a sea of red.

This time last year things were already heating up for the Spring Swing and the attitude that if prices hadn’t gone down yet they never would was rife.

Unless things reignite real quick the average sold price on a unit of Vancouver real estate will be back below the much vaunted 1 million dollar mark in the next week or two.

Yes things are still crazy here ,but the average sale price was close to 1.5 less than 9 months ago.

My Pink Snow posts are just the first waves to hit the beach.

The tsunami is still on the horizon and could take a while to get here.

It’s too late for a lot of people to get to higher ground,it appears at the moment that anyone that bought in 2014 or before ,is safe and those who bought after will have to find a good tree to hang onto or be swept out to sea.

I didn’t bother getting involved….must be the only Australian that can’t surf…

M42BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/trends

#120 meslippery on 01.27.17 at 12:26 pm

Wile E Coyote testing new answer to the wall.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5aCgSwmm5Ho

#121 Sonny on 01.27.17 at 12:32 pm

GM to axe 600 jobs at Ingersoll, Ontario CAMI plant: union

“General Motors is cutting up to 600 jobs at its assembly plant near London, Ont.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gm-unifor-ingersoll-1.3955128

#122 My observation of the last week. on 01.27.17 at 12:50 pm

Dictators have absolute power over their state and usually do not come to power through free constitutional elections. In the case of the last US election this is a major difference. Once in power, dictators typically do not call themselves dictators but instead choose to refer to themselves as presidents, prime ministers, chancellors or monarchs. Some of the most well-known dictators in history include Fidel Castro, Saddam Hussein, Kim Jong-il and Adolf Hitler. One thing all these dictators have in common is that they were able to maintain political power by using violence and propaganda. Dictators often manufacture an external threat in order to gain control over the state and appear as the people’s only salvation. For example, Hitler blamed the Jews for Germany’s problems and justified his actions during the Holocaust by using propaganda aimed at vilifying the Jews. Dictators also use their leadership skills to persuade the masses to believe their agendas. They use censorship to control the flow of information so as to maintain power. While I cannot compare the likes of past Dictators to Trump as he does appear to be a human being with emotions. Trump is however becoming paranoid and is definitely delusional. He has a thin skin and every criticism of him or his agenda is taken personally. He then creates alternative facts, double speak, and thought control to no end. He cannot ever be proven wrong even when the overwhelming clearly stated facts and evidence do not support his position. For example Trump has long viewed that the external threat is from south of the border. He has manufactured unproven facts to support his claims of the numbers and types of illegal aliens entering the USA. While Trump has not used violence, and I do not believe that he would, he has however started to manipulate the media and control government media outlets. This is a fact with his own adviser Steve Bannon, press secretary Sean Spicer and of course President Trump’s counselor Kellyanne Conway whom continually promote blatant falsehoods and attempts to shutter the media. For example Trump tells the National Parks Service Twitter account to shut down tweets. Trump hates facts that don’t support his dialog. This is very dangerous and really sets him up as a quasi-dictator for the 21st century. He who controls the media controls the minds of the masses. The question will be who will be the bearer of truth and reality with undeniable facts? Surely we will not let one central point of information come from the White House. As always we should look at multiple media outlets from inside and outside in order to make intelligent decisions on what is fact and what is fiction.

#123 Mr. Frugal on 01.27.17 at 12:51 pm

In fact, he did it Thursday, as the Trump administration said it’s prepared to impose a 20% tariff on all Mexican imports – using the money (estimated at $10 billion a year) to build that massive, ridiculous wall along the border with its key trading partner.
___________________________________

Garth, do you lock your doors at night or do you just let the riff-raff roam through as they please? I thought so. The Wall will be a thing of great beauty. MAGA.

#124 Euro observer on 01.27.17 at 1:44 pm

#122 My observation of the last week.

You have absolutely no clue how this world works.

Trump is not a lone wolf/dictator that he is represented as. He is the action figure for the republican party in the internal war against:
– the democrats/globalist/supported by European capital (and their puppets as Buffet and Obama and most of the mainstream media with the exception of Fox) and UN.

Trump is speaking for the core American capital, e.g. the oil and gas empires, the industrial military complex, some banks, the pharmaceuticals.

If somebody thinks that Trump is an non-event, dictator, a comet, that will be removed by the American ‘democracy’ or whatever the International capital makes you believe in in their open propaganda, that somebody is gravely mistaken.

We are witnessing major shift in the US policy that has nothing to do with Russia, China but everything to do with the internal war between the biggest capital formation in the west which where allies until recently (until the European Capital loss touch with reality and started believing that they control the US and the world).

#125 Nemesis on 01.27.17 at 2:11 pm

“Without NAFTA, our Canadian goose is nicely sautéed.” – SenorGartolo

#FridayMischief,Or… #NoHayTrabajadoresExtranjerosTemporales?…
#JustTakeTheBrandToTheWorkers…

[Bloomberg] – Tim Hortons Targets Mexico as Trump Stokes Cross-Border Tensions

…”With the trade agreement that long unified North America under fire, a quintessential Canadian brand is looking to cozy up with Mexico over doughnuts.

Tim Hortons, the coffee chain owned by Restaurant Brands International Inc., announced a joint venture with a group of Mexican investors on Friday. The team will create a master franchisee in charge of developing the brand in the Latin American country, creating a beachhead for Tim Hortons in the region.”…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-27/tim-hortons-targets-mexico-as-trump-stokes-cross-border-tensions

#126 James on 01.27.17 at 2:16 pm

Say it isn’t so.
………………………………………………………
http://m.kitchenerpost.ca/news-story/7088594-a-trump-supporter-was-charged-with-voting-twice-her-lawyer-says-she-shouldn-t-stand-trial

#127 Doug in London on 01.27.17 at 2:23 pm

@Leo Trollstoy, post #101:
Yes, that’s quite consistent with my observations. I’ve been following this blog for almost 7 years and, if some of the rubbish posted here were true the world would have had an apocalyptic ending by now.

#128 Steve on 01.27.17 at 2:28 pm

#123 Mr. Frugal on 01.27.17 at 12:51 pm

Do you lock all your doors but not the windows?

The wall is unlikely to be either “a thing of great beauty’ nor terribly effective at solving any real issues. It will certainly not keep the “riff-raff” out when they are already within. (and they are not all illegals from Mexico)

It is certain to be another monolithic Trunp edifice though.

#129 Kevin's Fanzone on 01.27.17 at 2:43 pm

#75 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.27.17 at 12:17 am
Trump is bullying Mexico with a 20% on its exports to the States.
China has about 100 times more exports.
But like all bullies, he’s not gonna take on a nation of 1.3 billion people.
Coward.

___

Keystone is to be built with US Steel not Chinese steel. Try again.

#130 NoName on 01.27.17 at 3:04 pm

#77 Statsfreak on 01.27.17 at 12:47 am
#57 WUL

#57 WUL on 01.26.17 at 9:44 pm
Trump’s goofy wall (which will never be built) should be built mui pronto. Certainly before people in Mexico discover boats and planes……

…. AND THOSE CUTE LITTLE DRONES (lets see how they stop thousands of those flying over the wall 24/7)

—-

https://youtu.be/GEpWBE5GdiM

#131 John of Grant on 01.27.17 at 3:35 pm

#84 Nonplused — “You don’t understand economics. The end user always pays all taxes. You maybe drive a car? When you bought that car, did you think the corporation that built it paid the corporate taxes? No they didn’t, they added it in to the price you paid. They could not have built the car otherwise.”
———————————————————–

Econ 101, taxes are split between buys and sellers depending on elasticities. And there is a dead weight loss to the economy.

#132 My observation of last week on 01.27.17 at 4:00 pm

#124 Euro observer on 01.27.17 at 1:44 pm

#122 My observation of the last week.

You have absolutely no clue how this world works.

Trump is not a lone wolf/dictator that he is represented as. He is the action figure for the republican party in the internal war against:
– the democrats/globalist/supported by European capital (and their puppets as Buffet and Obama and most of the mainstream media with the exception of Fox) and UN.

Trump is speaking for the core American capital, e.g. the oil and gas empires, the industrial military complex, some banks, the pharmaceuticals.

If somebody thinks that Trump is an non-event, dictator, a comet, that will be removed by the American ‘democracy’ or whatever the International capital makes you believe in in their open propaganda, that somebody is gravely mistaken.

We are witnessing major shift in the US policy that has nothing to do with Russia, China but everything to do with the internal war between the biggest capital formation in the west which where allies until recently (until the European Capital loss touch with reality and started believing that they control the US and the world)
_________________________________________
je suis désolé mon ami, I am sorry my friend (Euro) that is. You may be correct that I have no clue as to how the world works. However I live in Canada half the year and half in a warm US state for the other half. I do sort of have a bit of a clue how our half of the world works here in North America.

A I am retired.
B I am quite wealthy.
C I have lived long enough to see how manipulation of the populous works.
D I was in the armed forces in the early 50’s. Have been in a war.
E I call a spade a spade.

Now Trump dictates every word that comes out of his mouth. He dictates to his staff every truth or non-truth. He controls everything in his world. Don’t fool yourself. I was merely pointing out how he is creating his own version of non-truths and promoting them and trying to enforce them. At no time did I say he is a one horse show, at no time did I say he was going to be removed. As for Trump being the action figure for the republican party in the internal war against:
– the democrats/globalist/supported by European capital (and their puppets as Buffet and Obama and most of the mainstream media with the exception of Fox) and UN. Then I would have to say he is fixating on his image too much as well as his own persona and not the needs of America. He will be mired in muck with the small potatoes while the Rome burns around him. That is his own downfall. Now come on don’t tell me you haven’t seen him self implode.

#133 jess on 01.27.17 at 4:39 pm

IRS Going After Offshore Debit Cards With John Doe Summons
By PYMNTS
Posted on January 26, 2017

http://www.pymnts.com/legal/2017/irs-offshore-debit-cards-tax-evasion-john-doe-summons/

#134 jess on 01.27.17 at 4:41 pm

treason?

http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-top-manager-at-russian-cybersecurity-firm-arrested-in-moscow-2017-1

#135 Rufles on 01.27.17 at 5:46 pm

Well in my neck of “eviscerated” Vancouver (Pt Grey) two houses within 2 blocks of here have sold recently for over $5m after less than 1 week on the market. Not locals buying either so 15% Christy tax apparently no deterrent. Entirely anecdotal I know, but fwiw, one of the two sold +$1.5m than it went for 18 months ago.

#136 Pete on 01.27.17 at 6:03 pm

Euro observer on 01.27.17 at 11:58 am
#91 ROTFL on 01.27.17 at 8:14 am
#74 InvestorsFriend — “Insanity is FAR more correlated with low rates and just momentum (leading to expectations) than the existence of CMHC (zero correlation)”

CMHC allowed those with less-than-stellar credit and less-than-large downpayments to get in on the insanity, even for 1-4 unit rentals and for vacation properties. You can see it especially in pricing of rental properties. 1-4 units, pretty insane. 5+, less insane, and once you get above 10 units or so, they’re priced like a low growth cash flowing investment.

More eligible players and more available leverage = more insanity, and CMHC enabled that.

—————————-

CMHC is a financial terrorist that jeopardizes the stability of the financial system. Period.

It should be abolished.

—————————————————————–
110% true.

#137 Pete on 01.27.17 at 6:06 pm

Pete on 01.27.17 at 2:14 am
Pete, go away. You sound like an 11-year-old comic book worshipper. — Garth
———————————–
Hey Garth, why do you let 2 different blog-dogs use the same name. This other guy should be pete2 or something.
—————————————————————–
I think Garth was talking to you. ;)

#138 Bruce on 01.27.17 at 6:58 pm

#33 Show me the Money on 01.26.17 at 8:27 pm
Garth does the rule of 90 include your DCPP?

Of course not. — Garth

Why not. Pls explain

#139 WUL on 01.27.17 at 11:44 pm

A while ago Turner mentioned a revolution and asked “Who’s in?”.

I am mounting a movement and I am a Boomer. I will encourage my 20 sumpthin kids to be lieutenants.

End Old Age Security or reform it. Paid out of general revenue to Wrinklies based upon their birth certificates. $6500 per year and you youngsters are paying it after I and my cohort lived through the Golden Era.

It should be paid to 18 to 30 year olds, if at all.

And when an Old Fart emits the tired refrain “We built this country!” ask them “Are you proud of the result?”

Rise Up!!

#140 OMERS on 01.28.17 at 8:19 am

I have to say to Chris….. you have to do what’s right for you and your family…but throwing away all your saved money into a rental property 600km’s away…and still renting in the GTA, not being able to give them more space to live in..sounds offly foolish to me on the whim that the rental is going to appreciate in value and you’ll be able to build equity. One reader was right if you want to get into realestate buy a REIT ETF and sit back….you’d be cursing yourself and them when the tenants call asking you to drive 600km’s one way to fix a door knob…