Unintended consequences

Four more paras on this Trump guy, and then let’s be done with him for the week. As you know, Toronto stocks romped ahead on Tuesday after POTUS signed an order approving (sort of) the Keystone pipeline – which will flow Canadian crude into the US heartland. The Obama guys had halted the project on environmental concerns. Trump changed that. Screw the environment. Bay Street roared ahead by a triple-digit amount and now sits on the cusp of an all-time record high (the last one was n 2014).

But this is Donald. There are conditions. He’s gotta win. So all the pipe (1,900 miles of it) must be American, plus there will be other unspecified improvements made to the proposal which will tilt the whole thing in American favour.

You can be sure this attitude – presidential bullying – will prevail when it comes to renegotiating NAFTA. The Trump team has so expertly unnerved the T2 gang that this week every Canadian minister huddled around a mere emissary from Washington (not a cabinet member), looking for policy crumbs. Free trade with the States will remain in place, no doubt, but it won’t be the deal we have now. Have you emailed you MP yet?

By the way, for all those deplorables who come here calling the current prez “an American hero” because he’s the guy standing up for jobs and the middle class after the last president destroyed everything, well, get educated or get lost. Over the Obama presidency six million net new jobs were created – about average for the last six presidencies. What’s unique is he took office in 2008 (from George Bush) in the middle of the worst economic crapstorm in a century, with unemployment peaking at 10.6%. Today it’s 4.7%. When Obama arrived the S&P 500 sat way down at 700. Today it’s tripled, at 2282. Because stocks are a proxy for the economy, you can reach your own conclusions.

$   $   $

If you live within 100 miles of Toronto, aka the Centre of Civilization, you already know what CMHC revealed in a newsy report on Tuesday. Horny GTA refugees have swarmed over your once-sleepy and cheap towns, villages and baby cities and turned them into hipster-infested, Starbuckian housing plays. Quelle shame.

Sure, house prices have escalated for years thanks to cheap rates, higher populations and stirred loins, but lately it’s been extreme. In the past year, says the agency, average prices in the arc from Niagara Falls to Barrie to God-knows-where in the east have exceeded the average GTA increase by a whopping 30%. The average detached house in 905 is now one used Kia short of a million dollars. The pace of price appreciation, CMHC adds, has never approached today’s level.

This despite the fact commuting into Toronto from the frozen wilds of Georgina or some forsaken grape field south of the Welland Canal is a soul-sucking, life-threatening experience. And yet, people do it daily. All so they can possess the detached house which is now an impossible dream in 416, or even among the cookie-cutter boxes of Milton.

But what Toronto giveth, Toronto also can taketh away. There’s leverage between the Big Smoke and the hinterland which can cut both ways. Here’s how CMHC puts it:

“In particular, a 1% shock in the GTA leads to a 1.4% price change in Hamilton within one year. For example, if GTA house prices rise unexpectedly by 10% in a particular quarter, then Hamilton house prices could rise by 14% in response within one year. Conversely, an unexpected 10% contraction in GTA prices could lead Hamilton prices to decline by 14% within one year. After three years, the total impact of a one per cent house price shock in the GTA on Hamilton prices is 2.0%. Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, Barrie, and Peterborough all have impacts in the range of 1.7 to 1.9% after three years, while St. Catharines has a slightly lower impact at 1.5%.”

Hmm. So a 10% price correction in Toronto would mean a 20% plop in the Hammer, an 18% drop in Guelph or a 15% reduction in Saint Catharines. Those are big numbers, made worse by the fact local economies in the boonies are thinner with fewer jobs and diminished opportunities. Losing up to a fifth of your equity is as unpleasant as seeing house prices inflate when the moisters and their bicycles arrived.

Something else to hang on the little insufferables.

194 comments ↓

#1 mark on 01.24.17 at 5:54 pm

I have a bad feeling little T will be touching his toes dealing with big T.

#2 Pepito on 01.24.17 at 5:58 pm

“Because stocks are a proxy for the economy, …”

That’s a stretch, especially in the QE driven past 8 years.

#3 conan on 01.24.17 at 5:59 pm

Together We Can Do This.

Zero days since Trump was mentioned in this blog

Keep up the good work!!!

#4 Theo on 01.24.17 at 6:01 pm

When Toronto sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing urban lifestyles. They’re bringing hipsters. They’re millenials. And some, I assume, are good people.

#5 ShawnG in TO on 01.24.17 at 6:02 pm

hey Smoking Man,

before JD kicks your creative juices into high gear, let me introduce you an idea you will like

IYI — Intellectual Yet Idiot
created by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (of Black Swan, and other books)

you can read it here:
https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.x1kvv3kh1

basically, we are surrounded by IYIs. most bureaucrats, economists, journalists, and of course, pollsters.

they have their fancy degrees, they are doing things all wrong, and they feel really good about it.

anyway, my examples are not doing the concept justice. please read the article above. oh, and follow Taleb on twitter.

#6 Nonbuyer on 01.24.17 at 6:04 pm

Amazing how few unemployed there are when you simply stop counting them…100mil Americans not in work? Great economy!

Money printing helps too…Sorry, corporate bonds created for the purposes of stock buybacks.

Evidently value to be invested in is mostly nonexistent. Praying for nsye gains reminds me of Canadian housing… All wishful thinking, no real substance

#7 45north on 01.24.17 at 6:06 pm

So a 10% price correction in Toronto would mean a 20% plop in Hamilton

20% plop would wipe out recent buyers. A 20% plop would wipe out the housing industry. Life as we know it.

#8 Md on 01.24.17 at 6:08 pm

I love this blog.

#9 Nemesis on 01.24.17 at 6:09 pm

#TuesdayMischief,Or… #ToweringInferno’OLitigation… #AsFrustratingDelaysDeflate… #Trump’sVancouverErection

[CBC] – Trump Tower Vancouver developer sues contractor over delays

…”The developer of the Trump Tower in downtown Vancouver is suing its contractor, claiming the company’s mistakes led to costly project delays.

…Complaints include allegations the contractor didn’t have a proper project schedule or systems for security and quality control.

The lawsuit also claims appliances in the hotel portion of the building weren’t installed properly, and that Urban One approved construction that wasn’t up to standard.”…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/trump-tower-vancouver-lawsuit-1.3949892

#10 Terry on 01.24.17 at 6:10 pm

“By the way, for all those deplorables who come here calling the current prez “an American hero” because he’s the guy standing up for jobs and the middle class after the last president destroyed everything, well, get educated or get lost.”

You’re losing it Garth ……………. you’re sounding off just as badly as the Democrats were in DC last weekend. It was just an election and Trump will be a good President for America.

No relevance to what I wrote. — Garth

#11 We are ripe for the picking... on 01.24.17 at 6:13 pm

Trump aside, we are in deep dung for the next year at least.

Pay attention to the next 2 GDP reports that will close out 2016. We peaked in 2013 GDP at USD 1837.44 billion. 2015 GDP was USD 1550.54. 2016 is tracking at slightly more or less than 2015.

Means less of the economic pie to go around with an increasing population.

Why I think people are borrowing themselves into oblivion to maintain lifestyle since the money is not there OR gambling in asset bubbles to make up for lost cash.

Trump will need something from Canada to show the folks back home he is a winner. Probably Softwood Lumber as it is in the dispute/litigation phase as I type and America has successfully extorted Canada on this before (last round cost us $1 billion at least).

I get tired of reading idiots who post about how immigrants are going to buy homes ad nauseum. Google StatsCan and find out even after 5 years, their median salary is $50K/year vs. the avg. Cdn. salary of $75K/year (Year 1 avg. for immigrants is $30K/yr).

NO remedy from them.

It is not looking good to me. Sorry Garth, but staying 40% liquid due to all the uncertainty and I think Canada is going to crash badly in the first half of 2017.

“Center of the Universe” will then experience its RE correction as everyone else has in Canada (or will).

bsant

#12 Lulu on 01.24.17 at 6:15 pm

Toronto ranked no 13th of the least affordable housing cities in the world according to Demographia , not bad, we are getting up there, Vancity make it to the top no 3 and the infamous Hong Kong keep it’s NO 1 for 7 years consecutively, so bad that you have to work 18 years no eat and no any spending to buy an apartment there, way over the No 2 Sydney 12 years and Vancity is 11.2 years, so, GTA still got very many position to climb to become *world famous*

Take that!! lol

#13 I'm stupid on 01.24.17 at 6:19 pm

What am I missing?

How can a home increase in value more than the average yearly salary of the residents in the market? A 10% increase on a million bucks is more than the average household salary of the average Person in Toronto. How are these people getting financing?

#14 Doug t on 01.24.17 at 6:22 pm

Obummers”record:

Americans out of work since ’09 UP 1.6 million
Gas prices UP since ’09 111%
National debt UP since ’09 51%
Family income down since ’09 by $4,908
Americans in poverty UP since ’09 by 6.9 million

Obummer

#15 Timmy on 01.24.17 at 6:30 pm

What deal will we get with the Keystone and with Trump gutting environmental laws and putting that Moron Rick Perry in charge of the ministry he wanted to abolish, you can bet the yanks will be drilling every inch of USA, flooding the market with oil. So how much demand will there be for our stuff, which is so expensive to extract? Also, will there not be excess capacity if all of these piplines get built. I sometimes wonder if Trudeau approved Kinder Morgan line knowing damn well that it won’t be built due to massive opposition and legal challenges, but I’m not sure I’d give him that much credit.

#16 Smartalox on 01.24.17 at 6:30 pm

Obama halted Keystone on Optic, and Reputation concerns. That pipeline is going to do a lot of good for Canada’s economy, not least because it’ll be built far better than pipelines that were built fifty years ago (or more!).

Trump’s weakness is his need to win. Make him feel like a winner, and he will keep you rich by losing.

If he wants to make steel pipe in the US, he can pay for it. I’m sure that the sixty-year-old steel mill workers who haven’t worked in 20 years will gladly return to the Dantean smelters, while his sons build hotels with steel from China.

Vegas rules are in effect.

#17 Muttley O'Toole on 01.24.17 at 6:30 pm

I reckon, from a negotiating point of view, The Donald first puts out for public consumption his most extreme “would
like to haves”.
Then, when it gets down to the nitty gritty, he will give and take just to get the deal done.
Sure, he negotiates from a point of strength, and although he wins in the end, he would not be likely to walk away leaving the other guy with nought.
To do so would breed resentment of a high order and The Donald does like to be liked.
Just saying . .

#18 Timmy on 01.24.17 at 6:34 pm

RE #10
Trump has the most corrupt cabinet in the history of America. And even Trump is smart enough to know that he can’t just rip of trade agreements overnight. Most cars are manufactured in many different countries, so it will be a mess trying to sort that out. He also is smart enough to know that forces of globalization and automation far exceed any politician’s ability to bring back jobs lost due to these forces–only the people that voted for him are too stupid to recognize this.

#19 Chaddywack on 01.24.17 at 6:34 pm

@#13

Foreign money?

#20 Maj on 01.24.17 at 6:35 pm

#14 Doug t on 01.24.17 at 6:22 pm

Source for your alternative facts?

#21 TurnerNation on 01.24.17 at 6:37 pm

Who’s signing up for Dr. Smoking man’s double major program in Lesbonics and Herdonomics?

#22 Unintended Consequences...really Garth? on 01.24.17 at 6:48 pm

Firstly, you know that I love you.

But Garth, Trump has not done anything yet (nor T2 for that matter); thus, there are no consequences, intended or unintended, from actions they have taken to date.

I know, I love using those words as well, so mia culpa all around; however, wait for the action and then cite the unintended consequence (really Economist speak for “my fancy flawless theory screwed up but here is an explanation as to what I had not thought of, still I rock no matter how wrong I was”).

In the next 6 months, the 2 McJob creating powerhouses of La La Land and Trauma will be electing new MLAs and Premiere’s…the dirty laundry will come out then as will truths about unintended consequences of their guided or misguided policies.

Have fun then with today’s Blog Title but not today.

bsant

#23 Basil Exposition on 01.24.17 at 6:51 pm

A soul sucking, life threatening experience is a perfect description of commuting by car anywhere in the GTA. Further away only adds more snow and heartache which gets worse every year. Sadly though, where else can you afford to raise a family? Interesting trend in my neighborhood of aging suburban McMansions. Two recent sales for jaw dropping prices turned both homes into multi-generation and multi-family homes. Gone are the BMW’s, Caddies, and Harley’s of the Boomer generation. Replaced by four or more older cars and, God help us, Kia’s! Likely the new trend as incomes stagnate or decline and new families are priced out of Toronto.

#24 Ret on 01.24.17 at 6:52 pm

The number of cars trying to squeeze around the western end of Lake Ontario on the Q.E.W at rush hour is truly amazing. Grimsby to T.O. is stop and go for three hours every morning and evening rush hour.

Tens of thousands of commuters are living in the Niagara region and trying to commute to and from the Toronto area every day.

I see this as another big fail of the Wynne government and their Toronto-centric policies and intensification planning guidelines for municipalities.

Her Liberal developer and building consortium supporters have raked in obscene profits jamming the greatest number of houses onto the smallest lots. Can you even buy a house in Milton on a 45×100 foot lot for under $1.3M?

#25 Joe D on 01.24.17 at 6:53 pm

Why do people keep buying houses? Why are people not afraid of debt anymore? Why are Canadians not worried that wages are stagnat and that our economy is in the crapper? Are we so stupid? I don’t understand why this real estate market has not imploded by now. I don’t know why newspapers and the media keep printing stupid articles saying how safe and great real estate is. I make close to 3 times the average salary in Toronto with zero debt and just under a million in investments and cash and I wouldn’t even buy here. The people of this city, of this country have gone mad.

#26 Vancouver Troy on 01.24.17 at 6:54 pm

No one can dispute that Obama created jobs, but at what price?

Reading articles saying it works out to $278,000 per job based on the $10 trillion debt he racked up.

#27 So sick of this real estate crap on 01.24.17 at 7:00 pm

People are nuts, plain and simple. Most people are not that smart. They follow the heard, they believe what they want too and think going into debt is no big deal and I guess up until now, they have gotten by. What will be interesting, is what happens when they eventually get punched in the face.

#28 Andrew Woburn on 01.24.17 at 7:03 pm

There is at least one thing about which Trump tells the unvarnished truth: he is no politician.

In case you missed it, within nanoseconds of his taking office, the White House web site took down its Spanish language sections. I can sympathize with the argument that the US has one official language but the brutally abrupt way in which in this change was made will inevitably be seen as contempt for Latino Americans even if no insult were actually intended. Governments in supposedly”redneck” states like Texas and Arizona have no problem providing Spanish language services.

There are nearly 60 million Americans with Latino heritage. If Trump is that pointlessly insensitive to such a large voting block, how considerate will he be to any other minority group?

As Ricky Ricardo used to say, Republican congressmen running in the 2018 midterms will have a lot of “splaining” to do.

#29 earlybird on 01.24.17 at 7:06 pm

“Stocks are a proxy for the economy” Since when?
Agreed #2 Pepito

Obama started at the lowest crapstorm point, and had nowhere to go but up! Starting at a better position now economy wise, Trump has got his work cut out for him. The US need to take care of itself for awhile…can’t pour from an empty cup..

#30 jay on 01.24.17 at 7:08 pm

Here is a story about a Harry Potter toy and unintended consequences http://mustangnews.net/harry-potter-and-his-broomstick-please-all-ages/

#31 ShawnG in TO on 01.24.17 at 7:12 pm

Hi Garth,

i respectively disagree with your view on trump-o-nomics. here are my thoughts.

obama started at a very low point in the us / world economy. of course, it would be impossible for trump to reduce american unemployment by 6% or create 6 million more jobs. that economic recovery phase is over. we’re not gonna see that again until next recession / depression.

however, if trump could turn in some full time / manufacturing / high paying jobs, it would be a bigger achievement. if he could make the hourly wage higher, or exchange some baristas for manufacturing jobs, then he would be a hero for americans.

the obama stock market is pumped up by $4 trillion of QE. from here on it’s all gonna be company growth. not an easy task for trump.

economists are the typical IYIs ( i left out the teachers and academia in my prev post. 90% IYI) . if economic theories were true, then we would have real wealth creating policies with more prosperity for everyone.

let me use “comparative advantage” hypothesis as an example. suppose we have free trade with china. we export them $200k bombardier train cars, and they export us dollar store crap. everyone is happy. right? except the “comparative advantage” is probably created before the industrial revolution. china is capable of making $200k train cars, or $50k trains; $1000 iphones, and $100 ifakes; $100k cars, and $10k motorcycles; yes, and dollar store craps. their factory utilization is < 50%. they have the manufacturing capability to create trains and dollar store crap and export it all here. and the Canadian maker can suck that clean Rocky air.

sure, free trade create wealth, but are average Canadians going to benefit? is it even good for Canada ?

#32 earlybird on 01.24.17 at 7:12 pm

Also if the stock market is a proxy for the economy, how do you explain Canada? Were not firing on all cylinders, but the stock market is, why the disconnect?

Our market is dominated by resources and financials. The S&P 500 is not, far more broadly-based. Stop embarrassing yourself. — Garth

#33 Benji on 01.24.17 at 7:14 pm

#13 – Leveraged exposure. For every new dollar in income they borrow 1.5-5+ dollars.

#34 Long Branch Apprentice on 01.24.17 at 7:14 pm

Over the Obama presidency six million net new jobs were created

Sure, but what were the wages? Six million Walmart greeters is hardly something to tear a rotator cuff over.

What about the 90+ million Americans who have dropped out of the work force? What about the people who paid more for their Obamacare than their mortgages?

Uncle Barry tripled the stockmarket? Only took him a trillion dollar bailout to do it too.

You’re looking at Obama’s presidency with awfully rose tinted glasses there Mr. Turner.

If stocks are a proxy for the economy, then why isn’t Japan’s economy red hot, since the Bank of Japan is buying the Nikkei?

Where can I buy my O’Leary bumper sticker? I’m gonna stick in on my RWD, V8 that was made right here in St. Thomas.

#35 Andrew Woburn on 01.24.17 at 7:15 pm

#12 Lulu on 01.24.17 at 6:15 pm
Toronto ranked no 13th of the least affordable housing cities in the world …. and the infamous Hong Kong keep it’s NO 1 for 7 years consecutively, so bad that you have to work 18 years no eat and no any spending to buy an apartment there ..
========================

Hong Kongers have never been noted for their enthusiasm for tax compliance. It could be that their R/E prices are not actually the least affordable in the world if those prices are compared to actual incomes as opposed to those declared for tax.

#36 Gregor Samsa on 01.24.17 at 7:15 pm

I’m blown away that Garth doesn’t seem to know about the “not in the labour force” statistic. How about a chart on that one, Garth? Oh right, that would totally defeat the narrative you are trying to paint.

http://www.equedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/not-in-labour-force.jpg

Try understanding demographics. The largest cohort in North America is retiring. — Garth

#37 Gary on 01.24.17 at 7:18 pm

Garth you are such a absolute idiot. Please just quit this stupid blog. You are soo delusional in your postings it really is embarrassing. What a sorry- single, lonely, piece of psiticism- msm repeating, fat, ugly, misleading, schill you are. I’m serious-QUIT.

After that, not a chance. — Garth

#38 greyhound on 01.24.17 at 7:18 pm

Stayed at a Niagara-on-the-Lake B&B a couple months ago. I noticed that the house two doors down that had been sold recently was on the market again. B&B owner said, “yeah, those folks just listed for almost double what they paid two years ago.”
Now need 750k minimum to get into the village, and rising.

#39 Benji on 01.24.17 at 7:19 pm

#25 – imo, the fear of being priced out is prevailing over the fear of debt. One of the reasons is the supply, ahs anyone seen how bone-dry south Mississauga has been over the last couple of months?

I just viewed a house listed for 900K that had 45 viewings in 3 days since being listed. It’s already off the market.

#40 Cici on 01.24.17 at 7:22 pm

Thank you Garth, for being a voice of intelligence in a sea of idiots.

#41 hope & ruin on 01.24.17 at 7:25 pm

Over the Obama presidency six million net new jobs were created – about average for the last six presidencies. What’s unique is he took office in 2008 (from George Bush) in the middle of the worst economic crapstorm in a century
_______________________________

Obama’s economic record since the GFC is a big accomplishment BUT I’m liking the moves Trump is making. Interested to see how it plays out because there has been a lot of criticism of the quality of jobs created (part-time, low wage). People aren’t happy and I don’t think there is anything wrong with Trump’s approach. Using America’s economic power to leverage better deals for it’s workers, every country is lining up to renegotiate too.

Canada’s auto industry was going to be a big loser under TPP, so Trump may be saving our skin too. Plus promoting Keystone pipeline I think Canada stands be a winner under Trump, solidifying our role as a key US trading partner.

#42 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.24.17 at 7:25 pm

A friend of mine lives in Sutton. He was thinking of selling 2 years ago. Houses on his street were going for $225,000.

After reading Garth’s excellent post today, I checked on Realtor.ca just out of curiosity…

There is a house identical to his, one street over, listed for $599,000!!!

Almost a tripling in Sutton in 2 years! Sutton.

This sure does look like the classic parabolic rise before the bubble pops.

#43 crapstorm on 01.24.17 at 7:26 pm

Over the Obama presidency six million net new jobs were created – about average for the last six presidencies. What’s unique is he took office in 2008 (from George Bush) in the middle of the worst economic crapstorm in a century, with unemployment peaking at 10.6%. Today it’s 4.7%. When Obama arrived the S&P 500 sat way down at 700. Today it’s tripled, at 2282.

Garth, since you are the kind of investor guy who works with with the long-term horizon, statistical trends, it should be obvious, that when the chart hits the bottom, there is only one way to go: up.

On the way up there was unprecedented money printing, QE and just shy of 30 trillion dollar debt (which you claim is “manageable”, it is yet to see).

And let’s not forget about the never before seen low interest rate, for the entire 2-term presidency, which is, if I read your blog correctly, a major factor to screw up the entire Canadian real estate market, with dire consequences.

Crapstorm exported and set to explode at a convenient later time?

#44 46 and 2 on 01.24.17 at 7:26 pm

Trump is taking a run at the EPA….now what Justin?

I think that meeting in Calgary was a session on “this is what we are doing to do and this is what you are going to do or else we go rip up NAFTA”

I bet you T2 got told.

#45 Bubblicious on 01.24.17 at 7:36 pm

Toronto will soon face the same fate as Vancouver. It’s crazy to think that less than one year ago Vancouver was suffering from the same narrative.

https://financialfreedom45.com/2017/01/23/stages-of-a-real-estate-bubble/

This article highlights the difference between “delusional” Toronto and “denial” Vancouver very well.

#46 Shenanigans on 01.24.17 at 7:42 pm

Desperate times call for desperate measures

https://twitter.com/jason_kirby/status/824048117297332229

#47 Raise Rates on 01.24.17 at 7:43 pm

raise mortgage rates, make the real estate market burst in Canada. . .make Canada Great Again!

#48 46 and 2 on 01.24.17 at 7:47 pm

Personally I think that Trump is unstable but not dangerous.

What he does is brilliant….if you think back who brought down Nixon who brought down Clinton? The media.

Granted that was a different time when newspapers still ruled and the media had huge power.

Trump is dirty, everyone knows it and in the past it would be easy to bring all of this to the surface and have him looking for the nearest hole to hide in…BUT, what he does is amazing, he simply labels all media as false media and ignores it. CNN asks a question he does not like “next question, you are false media” and so on, does not matter who it is or how credible. Then he simply denies everything because the source is false media and carries on like nothing happened….brilliant.

#49 Tiger on 01.24.17 at 7:47 pm

2348 Oliver Crescent is back on market for $3,288,000.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/06/11/hitting-the-fan/

http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2133315/2348-oliver-crescent-vancouver-bc

#50 Joe D on 01.24.17 at 7:51 pm

Who can really afford just under a million for a house? Like seriously? Who would commute three hours to and from work in Toronto just for a detached crapper in Hamilton or Niagra? I’d rather spend time with my kids. People really need to evaluate what they are doing and the cost of those decisions (and I don’t just mean monetary) just to say you own four walls and a roof. Life’s greatest achievement isn’t about owning a house in the wastelands of the GTA.

#51 conditions on 01.24.17 at 7:52 pm

But this is Donald. There are conditions. He’s gotta win. So all the pipe (1,900 miles of it) must be American, plus there will be other unspecified improvements made to the proposal which will tilt the whole thing in American favour.

You can be sure this attitude – presidential bullying – will prevail when it comes to renegotiating NAFTA.

===

How refreshing is that someone aims to win openly, instead of the politically correct “everybody is a winner” lie.

It sounds more straightforward than the PTT negotiations by “civilized” politicians, parties and governments, where the agreement was kept top secret from the public until signing it.

Wikileak had to offer bounty so the public could have some idea before the fact.

In contrast, the Nobel Prize Winner for Peace President and the Almost First Madam President never stated any economic goals, aka presidential bullying by dropping record amount of bombs all over the world, destroying countries like Libya, in the name of “spreading democracy”, and creating a sea of refugees, unloaded on other countries, with friendly smiles, while lecturing others about intolerance, racism.

#52 For those about to flop... on 01.24.17 at 7:53 pm

Gary on 01.24.17 at 7:18 pm
Garth you are such a absolute idiot. Please just quit this stupid blog. You are soo delusional in your postings it really is embarrassing. What a sorry- single, lonely, piece of psiticism- msm repeating, fat, ugly, misleading, schill you are. I’m serious-QUIT.

After that, not a chance. — Garth

///////////////////////

He ain’t lonely…

M42BC

#53 not 1st on 01.24.17 at 7:55 pm

Obama created a lot of jobs for bartenders, maids, servers and mall santas.

Trump is going to make jobs building stuff that has long term intrinsic value.

Not at all the same thing.

Link? Or did you make that up? — Garth

#54 Metaxa on 01.24.17 at 7:59 pm

Garth you are such a absolute idiot. Please just quit this stupid blog. You are soo delusional in your postings it really is embarrassing. What a sorry- single, lonely, piece of psiticism- msm repeating, fat, ugly, misleading, schill you are. I’m serious-QUIT.

After that, not a chance. — Garth

You aren’t really fat are you Garth?

Stick to the plan…btw, thanks for the invite to the private forum, its much nicer there. :)

#55 not 1st on 01.24.17 at 8:03 pm

I see nothing economically or politically wrong with forcibly correcting the trade imbalances. Canada is in good shape here.

However, China better look out. They better start buying american real fast. Maybe some military equipment will even it all out.

#56 Jim Gedney on 01.24.17 at 8:04 pm

Trump job loss may be one of many to come. I work at a GTA printing business sorry worked. 50 percent of r work comes from the US. Sorry came from the US u know the rest of the story I’m now on EI. Thanks Trump.

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.24.17 at 8:05 pm

@#37 gary

Geez Gary.
Have an enema or three(’cause I think the braintank is full and needs emptying) ……It’ll make ya feel better…..and probably smarter…..

#58 WUL on 01.24.17 at 8:11 pm

45 Tiger

The listing for 2348 Oliver Crescent at $3.288 MM is riotous. It is “livable” and has an underground tank (heating oil??) under the addition. That’ll be easy to remove, remediate and reclaim. Just remove the addition to the house.

#59 not 1st on 01.24.17 at 8:13 pm

#56 Jim Gedney on 01.24.17 at 8:04 pm

—–

Why do you think Trump owes you a job? Why not call up Justin?

#60 Ret on 01.24.17 at 8:14 pm

#20 “but the brutally abrupt way in which in this change was made will inevitably be seen as contempt for Latino Americans even if no insult were actually intended.”

Brutally abrupt? It begs the question, how much notice would have been appropriate? This all sounds like a classic left wing political move -argue for special rights or considerations in the name of equality. I’m confused.

Enshrining ethnic or racial groups with special rights or considerations will not bring the US together as a great nation for the benefit of all its citizens.

Someday Canadians will come to this same realization. That is, that we are all equals living together in this country called Canada.

#61 Braj on 01.24.17 at 8:14 pm

#54 Metaxa on 01.24.17 at 7:59 pm

Garth you are such a absolute idiot. Please just quit this stupid blog. You are soo delusional in your postings it really is embarrassing. What a sorry- single, lonely, piece of psiticism- msm repeating, fat, ugly, misleading, schill you are. I’m serious-QUIT.

After that, not a chance. — Garth

You aren’t really fat are you Garth?

Stick to the plan…btw, thanks for the invite to the private forum, its much nicer there. :)

Wow. I can imagine it’s probably like browsing the web with an ad blocker on.

#62 Braj on 01.24.17 at 8:16 pm

Stick to the plan…btw, thanks for the invite to the private forum, its much nicer there. :)

Could I get some viewing privileges for this heavenly place?

#63 Freedom First on 01.24.17 at 8:20 pm

Yes. The GTA Factor Graph that Garth provided today is definitely a graph one should pay attention to.

Call me crazy, but I have always thought that life should be a pleasure to live and not a burden.

So it is shocking to me that anyone would put themselves in humungous debt, and then spend hours commuting in the drive Garth aptly described. And to be enslaved to these burdens for decades.

I just wouldn’t do it. Not for 1 minute. But then again, I am very creative and have always enjoyed thinking and learning about how I can make my life easier and better for me.

#1
Freedom First
Master of Freedomonics

#64 Vivek on 01.24.17 at 8:20 pm

Brilliant article from Taleb. Everyone should read it.

#5 ShawnG in TO

https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.fku9ca1n7

#65 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 01.24.17 at 8:25 pm

I like what you wrote in your last blog entry:

“Trying to second-guess the outcome in advance is pure gambling.” – Garth

Only time will tell.

One thing I will say is; with or without Trump, the whole world seems to be going to Hell in a hand basket. Our leaders are a reflection of they who elect them.

#66 traderJim on 01.24.17 at 8:27 pm

I think woman have a right to their own bodies, and should have the same rights as everyone else (which they do in North America, last I heard, maybe not in Saudi Arabia though, which the march organizer seems to think is heaven on earth for women)

But the pink hats thing is pretty silly looking, and the vagina suits are totally bizarre. What do they mean? Are they to scare small children?

The only thing I figured out from the marches was that any guy in a pink hat marching there we can be pretty sure didn’t go home and have wild sex. Just sayin’.

(p.s. deplorable is my preferred adjective. Thank you.)

#67 palebird on 01.24.17 at 8:28 pm

@ #18 Most corrupt cabinet?? They are still being sworn in. What are you talking about?? You sound like the people who are demanding Trump be impeached!! For what? Their ignorance is unbelievable.

@ #28 Let’s look at how well bilingualism works in other countries..oh yeah it doesn’t. It is a national embarrassment. Yeah I am talking about Canada..and Belgium. It does work in Switzerland and Luxembourg. But they have a defining language that everybody agrees upon and speaks and officially does business in. And then they have the other languages. Unlike Canada and unlike the latinos in the southern US. Trump is right, nip it in the bud before it grows any further.

#68 Ret on 01.24.17 at 8:31 pm

#37 Gary
If you are taking medication, see a professional, soon.

If you are not taking medication, maybe it’s time.

Maybe a switch to decaf is all that is needed.

After reading your comment, I guess that I’m relatively more stable than I thought, despite what my neighbours think.

#69 Linda on 01.24.17 at 8:33 pm

Have you emailed your MP yet? Well, as it happens I have the great joy of living in the former PM of Canada’s riding. Yep, Mr. Harper left us & as yet we have had no by-election, so sending an email to a vacant seat is not likely to do that much.

That having been said, my thought is negotiate the best deal possible for Canada & if what is being offered is essentially ‘we take all the goodies & you can have whatever we don’t want’ my advice would be contact all the countries who have been dissed by the Donald (he doesn’t discriminate, he disses everyone) & see if we can cut a mutually beneficial deal that replaces all that American trade. ‘But no other country can replace America’? Maybe not alone, but add in a few compadres & I’m sure we can make up our losses.

#70 We have been so wrong here on 01.24.17 at 8:37 pm

Why have we on this blog been so wrong here?GTA prices going thru the roof! We were wrong about Trump winning. We will probably be wrong about the effects of The new trade order. Meanwhile T2 is negotiating free trade with China. That will end great!….Right :S

Maybe we shouldn’t delete comments here so we can a true picture of what’s really happening??

#71 mark on 01.24.17 at 8:39 pm

Gary @37.

Garth you are such a absolute idiot. Please just quit this stupid blog. You are soo delusional in your postings it really is embarrassing. What a sorry- single, lonely, piece of psiticism- msm repeating, fat, ugly, misleading, schill you are. I’m serious-QUIT.

After that, not a chance. — Garth

Garth you and anyone else should not have to listen to personal attacks like that. Disagree with a person fine, but lets ignore idiots like gary.

Regards,

Mark.

#72 Deplorable Dude on 01.24.17 at 8:41 pm

#28 Andrew Woburn…….Trump took down Spanish Whitehouse pages….

More fake news. The Obama adminstration took down the website on the handover of administration, they also deleted their Flickr photofeed as well for instance, as well as all the past tweets of Obama. All standard practise.

The Trump administration is building the new website which will include a Spanish section.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/washington/la-na-trailguide-updates-white-house-promises-website-will-1485272911-htmlstory.html

#73 meslippery on 01.24.17 at 8:43 pm

the frozen wilds of Georgina

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17385120/625-DUCLOS-POINT-Road-Georgina-Ontario-L0E1N0-Virginia

A stones throw…

#74 I don't know on 01.24.17 at 8:49 pm

Those who ignored contrary doomer advice and were smart enough to buy two, or more, years ago have nothing to worry about regarding a housing price correction. Their houses have escalated in price and they are sitting on very safe gains. I suspect, despite doomer predictions, that if one were to buy today, two years from now the story would be the same. Why the rosy GTA RE picture. Well, because, 1) rates are NOT going up and instead will probably go lower, 2) immigration to the GTA is massive and new immigrants all want RE, 3) the govt. realizes how important RE is to the economy and will introduce whatever program it needs to (beyond what they already have) to keep the RE based economy buoyant.

Those doomers that say otherwise are the same ones that have been wrong the last eight years and will probably continue to be so.

#75 Chico on 01.24.17 at 8:55 pm

#37 Gary on 01.24.17 at 7:18 pm

Garth you are such a absolute idiot. Please just quit this stupid blog. You are soo delusional in your postings it really is embarrassing. What a sorry- single, lonely, piece of psiticism- msm repeating, fat, ugly, misleading, schill you are. I’m serious-QUIT.

After that, not a chance. — Garth

____________

Gary, you’re making Freedom First look mentally and emotionally stable. CUT IT OUT!

#76 FritoPaws on 01.24.17 at 9:04 pm

I would feel much better if Harper was in power right now (yes I voted Conservative). He pretty much told Putin to eff off to his face, I’m sure Trump would be child’s play. T2 still is “just not ready”. He’s going to be flopping around trying to curry favour instead of taking the bull by the horns. Unfortunately I think the US is in the driver seat.

#77 not 1st on 01.24.17 at 9:08 pm

Garth since Trump is going to give Canada a pass now maybe its time for you to rebalance again. More maple in order I would say.

How about zero foreign? No gains to be had there. They all came courtesy of the good ol USA and she aint playing that game anymore. Plus just about every foreign country is either a dictatorship (China), corrupt (Russia) or super deep in debt (Japan).

#78 Leo Trollstoy on 01.24.17 at 9:10 pm

Some posters funny dumb tonight.

How many 7 and 70 year olds do they expect are employed?

Lol

#79 Self Directed on 01.24.17 at 9:17 pm

#45 Bubblicious on 01.24.17 at 7:36 pm

Toronto will soon face the same fate as Vancouver. It’s crazy to think that less than one year ago Vancouver was suffering from the same narrative.

https://financialfreedom45.com/2017/01/23/stages-of-a-real-estate-bubble/

This article highlights the difference between “delusional” Toronto and “denial” Vancouver very well.
……………………………………

Great article! Garth so far has predicted all the bubble stages perfectly… except for that elusive “Blow off” phase.

It’s hard to say. Is the GVRD entering the ‘Bull Trap’ this spring? The “Return to Normal” phase WILL DEFINITELY be covered up by realtors as a typical spring fever.

Areas like Maple Ridge and Mission are still seeing sales and price increases, but slowed for sure. I’m curious what is going to happen to the Fraser Valley. Will prices crash faster and harder out there because of fewer buyers and more “specu-flippers” panicking to dump their investments? Homes in Mission will always need to be priced lower than Maple Ridge. Same goes for Pitt Meadows vs. Port Coquitlam. There’s a knock-on effect that should materialize… if people get wise.

I’m seeing listings in Mission picked up last spring in the $300K range, quickly reno’d with flip/asking prices around $500K. Ain’t no way I’m buying a $50K rushed reno, for $200K!

I’m ready and waiting. And I got lots of time and patience!

#80 Smoking Man on 01.24.17 at 9:17 pm

#5 ShawnG in TO on 01.24.17 at 6:02 pm
hey Smoking Man,

before JD kicks your creative juices into high gear, let me introduce you an idea you will like

IYI — Intellectual Yet Idiot
created by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (of Black Swan, and other books)

you can read it here:
https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.x1kvv3kh1

basically, we are surrounded by IYIs. most bureaucrats, economists, journalists, and of course, pollsters.

they have their fancy degrees, they are doing things all wrong, and they feel really good about it.

anyway, my examples are not doing the concept justice. please read the article above. oh, and follow Taleb on twitter..
……..

Brilliant article good delevry . My fiction book says same thing via cryptic messages and comedy.
I’ll follow him for sure.

#81 prairiegopher on 01.24.17 at 9:20 pm

Did anyone else see baby Castro eating crow over the oilsands. What a great time for a selfie!

#82 all good in the hammer on 01.24.17 at 9:32 pm

if my rental properties in Hamilton & Ancaster end up being worth less than I paid for them in 2013/2014 I will.. I don’t know what i’d do but I doubt that would happen. paid 275K for my first duplex in 2013 that pulled in 1900 in rent, now it brings in 2125. i’m hands off utilities of course. a couple grand a year in maintenance. weed out the crack heads by searching facebook with their phone number and then don’t call the rejects back. not a job for everyone. that property would be an easy sell for 430 right now. not sure how the duplexes with broken windows are listed for 549 right now though. that agent would also be able to reconstruct my whole blurp in one run on sentence. and he’s #1 in the hood

#83 Spectacle on 01.24.17 at 9:38 pm

Anti-trump movements , or movements of colour are largely sponsored by Soros. ( black lives matter… Etc).

People are willingly being ‘used’ for his own machinations intended to corrupt/coopt the system in the world society to his advantage! Such misguided people, and they don’t know it.
Billionaire George Soros has ties to more than 50 ‘partners’ of the Women’s March on Washington – Women in the World in Association with The New York Times – WITW
nytlive.nytimes.com › 2017/01/20 › billi…
4 days ago – The Guardian has touted the “Women’s March on Washington” as a “spontaneous” action for women’s rights. … It’s a march for women who are anti-Trump. … Following the money, I pored through documents of billionaire George Soros and his Open Society philanthropy, because I …

#84 BS on 01.24.17 at 9:39 pm

When Obama arrived the S&P 500 sat way down at 700. Today it’s tripled, at 2282. Because stocks are a proxy for the economy, you can reach your own conclusions.

Obama was 8 years of golf and politically correct speeches and not much else. Oh yes and a whole lot of debt. My conclusion is the S&P went up in spite of Obama and not due to his policies. He was also following Jr Bush which made it an easy act to follow.

The credit crisis of 08-09 happened on Bush’s watch. — Garth

#85 Smoking Man on 01.24.17 at 9:58 pm

Beginning of the end of climate change religion

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-24/trump-bans-epa-employees-using-social-media-bars-new-contracts

#86 Leebow on 01.24.17 at 10:01 pm

Oh come on. And a 70% fall in Toronto will wipe out 98% of value in st Catharines. Right.

There is not too much data to run such a regression. And the data is krap, most likely.

The Niagara region will get the train eventually. And there is also this hover craft guy. Portage Rd to bay St in 40 min! No kiddin

#87 Toronto1 on 01.24.17 at 10:11 pm

Re CMHC report, the numbers are actually worse as each of those suburbs become a mini toronto and price out locals who cannot afgord to buy. Distorting the local market dynamic even further.
People make choices i cant fathom how a commute is worth it but im not here to judge.

Its how leverage works but when (not if) toronto and gta prices drop the perphial dump will be much more extreme. If toronto reverts 20-30% then exterior area will fump by 50-60% as all incentive to live has bern lost.

As for Trump, lets what and see what he actually does lots of talk lets see if anything happens in the next 6 months.

#88 Dobermanduke on 01.24.17 at 10:17 pm

I have never posted before but tonight I had to speak up.

Gary #37 – Get lost! We don’t need your kind around here.

Thanks for the guidance Garth

#89 Gentle ,Loving Kindness on 01.24.17 at 10:24 pm

I do not understand why people are “40% in cash” because of the potential volatility of the markets. This is an expensive opportunity cost premium for protection to downside volatility. Why not instead place a running stop on those stocks you have deemed as trades. Worse comes to worse, use the last week’s low price as your stop. (Adjust weekly). If Trump does a Trump thing and the markets tank, your stops will kick in and provide the liquidity for your recovery. In the meantime, you are collecting dividends and capital gains.
Question for thought, Does anyone think Trump front runs the market, through his semi-permeable management team (son in law), by shorting the stock before he does a “Trump Rant” on it? E.g. GM ,Ford etc.

#90 DON on 01.24.17 at 11:02 pm

@ Gary…..now you did it – you awoke Garth’s inner beast.

For whatever reason you are mad – too much skin in the game/career.

Take a knee and relax before Garth tosses your ass. listen and learn and change your circumstances as nothing lasts forever not even a house.

#91 The American on 01.24.17 at 11:03 pm

At #28: Andrew, fun fact: The US does not have any official language.

#92 april on 01.24.17 at 11:07 pm

#79- According to a very credible source, Vancouver crash starts mid to end of February.

#93 fishman on 01.24.17 at 11:08 pm

Best ticket in Canuckistan is still Vancouver Town. Mexico will the warm up; then its “Lets get ready to ruuuuumble!!. Front row seats for the main event. The Third Millennium is the age of the Pacific. Might be a little dangerous for us ringsiders when those two big guys start flopping around out there. Don’t imagine the ref can do much.
Still can’t get over how those three Chinese war ships just showed up outside Victoria & nobody on our side had got the prior heads up.

#94 Andrew Woburn on 01.24.17 at 11:13 pm

#72 Deplorable Dude on 01.24.17 at 8:41 pm
#28 Andrew Woburn…….Trump took down Spanish Whitehouse pages….

More fake news. The Obama adminstration took down the website on the handover of administration …The Trump administration is building the new website which will include a Spanish section.
——————————————

The Trump era is going to be interesting for truth seekers especially with fake news and alternative facts.

I am not taking any position on whether US governments should support Spanish language “rights”, I was more interested in what this situation says about how Trump does politics. It could be deliberate or it could be a lack of competence in the transition team.

I got my original information from “El Pais” the leading Spanish newspaper not known for being excitable. They also said there was a vague plan to put some Spanish content back on the site eventually but the damage has been done in the Latino community. El Pais also noted there are no Latino’s in Trump’s new cabinet for the first time in 30 years.

If you check the new White House web site it is pretty elaborate and didn’t get done overnight. As far as I can tell, it has not a word about any plan to include any Spanish content not even a “stay tuned, we’re working on it” which is the least you would expect at this point. So what have we got here, fake news or alternative facts?

#95 DON on 01.24.17 at 11:19 pm

To the poster that said this blog is always wrong.

If you look through the archives some predicted Notely, some Trudeau, some Trump. In regards to housing if you brought 8 years ago you still brought high, the loan is still around your neck and you are now betting against the descent. It is inevitable dozen,t matter if it takes another year or so it is still coming. Lots of rich equity home owners in BC need renters to pay their bills. As long as everyone else is spending it’s a no brainer and when they suddenly stop it’s a eye opening panic.

Trump is no dummy. He knew the media had it,s own weakness – actors and newsreaders, lacking objectiveness, ethics and investigative skills and branded them as fake news outlets on the side of the establishment. He took to twitter and controlled his message and used the growing cynicism against the press and won. He is also using twitter to set the tone for negotiations.

Like Ross Kay explains – you need to know how to decipher realtor speak.

#96 Maj on 01.24.17 at 11:23 pm

Thank you for the grounded and great post, Garth.

Lots of alternative facts in comments tonight. Disheartening.

Something to lighten the mood:
http://time.com/4645127/dutch-tv-donald-trump-video/

#97 Shortymac on 01.24.17 at 11:24 pm

I just want to thank you for being someone of a conservative persuasion who hasn’t given over to Trumpmania and the racist-fascist dogma.

He hasn’t been sworn in a week and hell has already started: Alternative facts, the dakota pipeline jeopardizing drinking water, removing the ACA could possibly kill millions, etc.

I have to just turn it all off, it gets too damn depressing.

#98 For those about to flop... on 01.24.17 at 11:28 pm

Pink Snow falling in Burnaby.

These guys are in real trouble.

Bought for 1.86m early last year it’s a 1950’s Classic

Be lucky to get 1.5…

M42BC

4263 Portland st. Burnaby

Oct 25:$2,190,000
Jan 24: $1,798,800
Change: – 391200.00 -18%

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAzV0VQTg==

#99 Not your best on 01.24.17 at 11:38 pm

canadians should humble themselves , refrain from US politics , as if ya’ll are on its pulse

YOU folks voted that Clinton would win , remember that blog ? Deer in the headlights and completely clueless

Not only did he win, but the red boys control Congress and the senate . Landslide

Are you humbled NOW? …nah ..

#100 george on 01.24.17 at 11:47 pm

Gary if you don’t like the blog posts don’t read them and don’t post!
Garth don’t bother to post abusive comments from anyone.
Thanks for your blog.

#101 macroman on 01.25.17 at 12:00 am

DELETED

#102 Chico on 01.25.17 at 12:11 am

After years of reading this blog, one can still be left wondering why people go into such mind numbing and insane levels of debt. I may have uncovered a part of the answer.

I’m watching a documentary on materialism and decadence. Professor George Ritzer from the University of Maryland mentioned that after 9/11, both the US president and the mayor of NY, said it was the “duty” of the Americans to get out and shop.

Considering the saturation of this event in our everyday lives since, it’s not hard to find a connection between manic buying and a sense of duty to one’s country.

The logic goes…if you don’t get out and buy stuff, people will lose their jobs, and our tax base will suffer and how will we maintain our roads and how will we be able to afford proper health care and what about your children’s future and our economy will suffer and you will be a bad person.

It’s no wonder the Church buildings were packed for 3 weeks after 9/11, and then emptied as rapidly as they filled. “Our commander given us our orders, we want to do what is right.”

What does faith and purpose and meaning have to do with “your duty is to get out and shop?”

#103 JimH on 01.25.17 at 12:17 am

#2 Pepito on 01.24.17 at 5:58 pm
“Because stocks are a proxy for the economy, …”
That’s a stretch, especially in the QE driven past 8 years.
================================
You can do this blog a great service.
Educate us on all you know about QE??? Anything at all would be fine…

#104 JimH on 01.25.17 at 12:26 am

#6 Nonbuyer on 01.24.17 at 6:04 pm
“Amazing how few unemployed there are when you simply stop counting them…100mil Americans not in work? Great economy!”
===============================
Shhhhhh! You’re making yourself look really stupid!
Do you have any clue at all about what the “Labor Participation Rate really is????
No… I thought not.
Do some real research…

#105 Kevin's Fanzone on 01.25.17 at 12:28 am

No one believes those unemployment numbers. Including President Trump.

#106 Lady Jane on 01.25.17 at 12:30 am

#48 You think that Trump is unstable but, not dangerous and you laud him for his attempts to control and subvert the media. I call that dangerous, plain and simple. Praising this strategy for its brilliance instead of identifying it for what it really is and condemning it, is not in your best interests. Might I suggest that you pick up a copy of George Orwell’s 1984 and report back when you have read it. We the people, need a highly functioning press, especially with a Trump presidency and all of its alternative truths, and outright propoganda. We need to continue to stand up and insist on the truth. Standing back in awe of this crazy unstable bastard with your mouth hanging open just makes you ripe for the taking.

#107 For those about to flop... on 01.25.17 at 12:34 am

Ross Kay is doing a good job at trying to keep the realtors honest.

I kind of feel guilty that I have to look away from the iPad when he is speaking, as I am afraid of being hypnotized by his eyebrows…

M42BC

#108 JimH on 01.25.17 at 12:34 am

#91 The American on 01.24.17 at 11:03 pm
“At #28: Andrew, fun fact: The US does not have any official language.”
==============================
Gawddam! Good to see you posting, man!
I have to laugh at your detractors… and take solace in the fact that their appalling ignorance seems to give them little bliss.

The Obama years were far from peaches and cream, but the struggling economy still proved to be the best bet in the entire world.

Good luck, bro; Resist!

#109 paulo on 01.25.17 at 12:35 am

KEY STONE CRAPOLA : we should be moving as quick as we can to make our country OIL self sufficient.
That would make getting pipe lines from alberta & sask to blue water ports on either coast preferably both. Than we should be building state of the art refineries and petro chemical processing plants so that we are exporting finished products to the world using Canadian labor at to produce it, same goes for the lumber industry and other resource based industries. the technology is there to do this in a environmentally correct and safe way. as for issues with having to cross native lands, our people (native) should also be included. provided with training and jobs in the industries and even a piece of the action the bottom line is that we have been put on notice. time to grow up and develop our country and infrastructure. T2 and the crew had better be on the ball
and looking out for us the Canadian voter. Canadians can also get pissed. show some spine and resolve…..

#110 JimH on 01.25.17 at 12:39 am

#99 Not your best on 01.24.17 at 11:38 pm
“canadians (sic) should humble themselves , refrain from US politics , as if ya’ll are on its pulse
YOU folks voted that Clinton would win , remember that blog ? Deer in the headlights and completely clueless

Not only did he win, but the red boys control Congress and the senate . Landslide

Are you humbled NOW? …nah ..”
============================
Please; ignore this ignorant puerile asshat.

He doesn’t speak for but a handful of those Americans you justifiably detest. The term “Deplorable” has far too many syllables for him to parse. Sorry.

#111 Stock Picker on 01.25.17 at 12:45 am

First…Obama did not cancel KXL for environmental reasons, he admitted to denying the permit solely to make himself look good for his dwindling climate crazy sycophants encounter to Paris.

Two….Obamas net new jobs consisted of government hires and rehired of McJobs in low paid part time work.

Three…4.7 % unemployments is the running joke when considered the unemployed are no longer counted after their claims run out. Shawdow Stats puts the jobless rate closer to 16%.

Four….stocks are a leading indicator not a measure of the daily pulse. People like myself were fully invested secure in the knowledge that Obama had done his worst . The best performance of the Obama markets are when he was officially a lame duck….the first seven were flat and defense led.

Juniors people are in a panic…..the yanks didn’t show up at the meeting. Kushner blew them off.

#112 JimH on 01.25.17 at 12:47 am

#66 traderJim on 01.24.17 at 8:27 pm
“… The only thing I figured out from the marches was that any guy in a pink hat marching there we can be pretty sure didn’t go home and have wild sex. Just sayin’.
=================================
Actually, fool…. many of them did go home and have wild sex.
And did so again Sunday, Monday and again tonight… at about 8:27 PM…
while you were spanking the monkey, choking the chicken and posting absurdities on this here blog…

#113 Gregor Samsa on 01.25.17 at 12:51 am

> The largest cohort in North America is retiring. — Garth

https://www.thestreet.com/story/13474521/1/why-baby-boomers-are-not-retiring.html

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/01/19/steve-mnuchin-unemployment-rate-not-real/

It’s getting easier and easier to tell who’s been watching the “fake news” and who hasn’t.

This ‘fake’ thing is getting old. Breitbart? Seriously? — Garth

#114 Freedom First on 01.25.17 at 1:19 am

#75 Chico

Yes. You’re coming along nicely, Chico.

#115 Vanrentor on 01.25.17 at 1:21 am

Chines New Year is this Saturday. A Realturd I spoke with has his fingers crossed that the HAM is coming to Vancouver. Me thinks he will be disappointed…

#116 Tony on 01.25.17 at 1:59 am

Re: #89 Gentle ,Loving Kindness on 01.24.17 at 10:24 pm

Running stops are meaningless in todays’ markets. The overvaluations are second to none. The most likely scenario is the market tanks in one day tripping all the circuit breakers and opening 60 to 65 percent lower when trading resumes about a month later. The smart money is buying out of the money puts each month on the major market indexes.

#117 I don't know on 01.25.17 at 2:13 am

#11 We are ripe for the picking…

I get tired of reading idiots who post about how immigrants are going to buy homes ad nauseum. Google StatsCan and find out even after 5 years, their median salary is $50K/year vs. the avg. Cdn. salary of $75K/year (Year 1 avg. for immigrants is $30K/yr).

—————————————-

FYI, many immigrants do have large sums of money that they bring with them. Also, many immigrants do earn large salaries. I personally know many of them in IT that do. And they do it right off the bat on entry into Canada. Also, many lower earning new Canadians rely on extended families to help with the mortgage payments. It’s the age old technique of multiple families bundling together under one roof to afford a house.

So, even though you may think I’m an idiot for saying so, the fact is immigrants are a real contributing factor regarding high RE prices. Whether you like it or not.

#118 ROTFL on 01.25.17 at 2:30 am

#74 I don’t know — “Those who ignored contrary doomer advice and were smart enough to buy two, or more, years ago have nothing to worry about regarding a housing price correction. Their houses have escalated in price and they are sitting on very safe gains. I suspect, despite doomer predictions, that if one were to buy today, two years from now the story would be the same. “

Could be. What I don’t understand is how those people are planning to retire. If you’re in your 50s or 60s and don’t have a great pension, I’d say you need $1 million, not including the equity in your residence, to retire somewhat comfortably. If you’re in your 30s or 40s, you’re going to need $2 million, because inflation.

And I don’t see how these people can pay these prices for housing and still amass that much wealth. What am I missing?

#119 ROTFL on 01.25.17 at 2:39 am

Presidents and jobs:

Mostly, Presidents don’t create jobs. Reagan created a few, with his “star wars” missile defense program, and FDR created a lot, with the Works Progress Administration, the Tennessee Valley Authority, &c. Others, not so much.

For 6 of his 8 years, Obama was faced with an obstructionist congress which did not do his bidding. His signature legislation, Obamacare, probably lost a few jobs, as it allowed some people who were only working because they needed the healthcare benefits to retire.

Presidents don’t create jobs. The economy creates (and destroys) jobs, in cycles. Unless they massively screw up, government policy has little to do with it.

#120 When Will They Raise Rates? on 01.25.17 at 2:40 am

#103 JimH on 01.25.17 at 12:17 am

#2 Pepito on 01.24.17 at 5:58 pm
“Because stocks are a proxy for the economy, …”
That’s a stretch, especially in the QE driven past 8 years.
================================
You can do this blog a great service.
Educate us on all you know about QE??? Anything at all would be fine…
——————

What he said is not controversial.. Over the past 8 years, the S&P500 has absolutely been a proxy for the FED’S BALANCE SHEET ,ie, “QE”.

Look at this chart:

http://www.coffeeandcharts.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/BalanceSheet-vs-SP-20150909.png

#121 Self Directed on 01.25.17 at 4:24 am

Amazing to see some delusion in coquitlam. House down the street, 60’s shack bought early 2016, was listed last year for 1.4M and was on the market for over 8 months. Several opens…. No bites. Did not budge on price. Not even a tiny price drop. But several other similar homes on the same street sold for 1.1M.

He gave up in December pulling it off the market. Contract with realtor expired. You’re fired.

No surprise. It’s back on the market with a new realtor, new set of pics. Same house. Maybe no one will notice the asking price went up 50K. Probably some buffer for a price drop? I think he spent lots on the reno and wants to turn a nice profit. Might be too late for that now.

#122 Dzh123 on 01.25.17 at 4:33 am

Garth – what’s the real rate of interest been over the past 8 years? What could it have been hac CPI gone up commensurately with tarp and qe? Is it possible that in the wake of a housing disaster in 08, with us savings rates climbing up from 0%, there might be other factors which might confound your little ‘get educated or get out’ thesis about jobs and the stock market? And sorry but look at the age breakdown for the labor non participation rate, look at the govt admission that 94% of these jobs are part time. Look at family incomes. look at estimated jobs missed because of Obamacare. I don’t know much, but I know this is not black and white.

Other things I know: I know you’re upset about trump. So Canada applied vat to us imported products since nafta and doesn’t also have a right to be upset? Did I really just read you chewing out trump for approving pipelines after Trudeau did so as well? I also know our government has done its level best to advantage debtors over savers, yet every day you write more shit about why we’re such big debtors. Ever stop to ask what the structural causes for this really are?
This is likely going to be a lousy 4-8 financial years at an important time in your life. I know youve diversified wisely, but don’t forget that moisters were raised by a generation of sanctimonious asses like Pierre Elliott and jack Layton, so when the debtors need to live beneath their means to service their debts, be assured that rather than questioning their choices they’ll coming looking to tax you into oblivion.

#123 Euro observer on 01.25.17 at 4:54 am

It is time to abolish the criminal organization CMHC.

Let the banks assume their own risk. Write your MPs with that request. And if they don;t comply, fire them.

#124 Euro observer on 01.25.17 at 4:56 am

#61 MF on 01.23.17 at 9:42 pm

And what if NAFTA is renegotiated to the BENEFIT of Canada?

MF
——————–
Heavy Sigh. Unfreeze your brain.

#125 Leo Trollstoy on 01.25.17 at 5:08 am

There are nearly 60 million Americans with Latino heritage. If Trump is that pointlessly insensitive to such a large voting block, how considerate will he be to any other minority group?

most didn’t vote for him and he still won anyway.

#126 The real Kip on 01.25.17 at 6:57 am

“This despite the fact commuting into Toronto from the frozen wilds of Georgina or some forsaken grape field south of the Welland Canal is a soul-sucking, life-threatening experience.”

Hey, I live in Georgina, love it.

You are correct about Trump, going to be a terrible POTUS, only slightly better that Hillary would have been. Oh well, there have been clowns in the White House before and it just makes me glad I live in Georgina. Seems more and more people are thinking along the same lines.

#127 Smoking Man on 01.25.17 at 6:58 am

JimH = Communist Troll.

#128 Pete on 01.25.17 at 7:00 am

I don’t know #116

You don’t know anything. You are a shyster realtor making up any “logic” that suits your vested interest. You don’t know anything of economics since you most likely dropped out or failed high school. A few weeks of training doesn’t make you a professional.

#129 Trump a great man on 01.25.17 at 7:12 am

#106 Lady Jane

The media is propaganda by big brother( elite) . The media doesn’t report the truth. We are living in 1984 right now where good is bad(trump) and bad is Good(Hillary). here is a tip. Whatever the media tells you for the most part , believe the opposite.

#130 BillyBob on 01.25.17 at 7:20 am

#117 ROTFL on 01.25.17 at 2:30 am
#74 I don’t know — “Those who ignored contrary doomer advice and were smart enough to buy two, or more, years ago have nothing to worry about regarding a housing price correction. Their houses have escalated in price and they are sitting on very safe gains. I suspect, despite doomer predictions, that if one were to buy today, two years from now the story would be the same. “

Could be. What I don’t understand is how those people are planning to retire. If you’re in your 50s or 60s and don’t have a great pension, I’d say you need $1 million, not including the equity in your residence, to retire somewhat comfortably. If you’re in your 30s or 40s, you’re going to need $2 million, because inflation.

And I don’t see how these people can pay these prices for housing and still amass that much wealth. What am I missing?

===================================

Exactly.

One of the main reasons I left Canada was because I ran the numbers and between lower wages, higher taxes, and hilariously overpriced real estate, I realized if I stayed I could either retire one day or own a home. But not both.

I didn’t like that choice, so I left. To much higher wages, no income taxes, and so far, no real estate but a comfortable net worth. Ironically, now I don’t want to come back, because the place seems infested with financial illiterates intent on destroying their own economy. Well, and the weather sucks too. And there’s that Trudeau guy.

Point is there is going to be a whole demographic with a nearly-paid off house, retirement looming, and not enough to sustain them. Already happening.

“Misallocated Capital” synonym see: “Canada”

#131 Stock Picker on 01.25.17 at 7:49 am

Trump signs 17 billion dollars in pipelines and oil infrastructure back to life in a single day!!! He says companies will use US steel.. but that’s great for Canada as we produce the raw materials but no steel…. that’s China Steel he’s trouncing. I have a whole list of issues that are specialized around the production of pipe and installation ready to go on today’s trade. I’m gonna get my share of that 17 billion Howa about you?

#132 Syd Cixel on 01.25.17 at 7:51 am

Re: “The Trump team has so expertly unnerved the T2 gang that this week every Canadian minister huddled around a mere emissary from Washington (not a cabinet member)…”

That’s because the members of Team T2 understand that Trump cabinet members have far less influence within the administration than an advisor to the president. T2 was fortunate to get somebody of high influence to bother to attend their meeting.

#133 In time .... on 01.25.17 at 8:19 am

Canadians will wish they had Trump . Well maybe not Trump, he’s much too abrasive for Canadians . Drop a level , O’Leary .

In the meantime , all of Canada keep your fingers crossed. Poor T2

#134 TurnerNation on 01.25.17 at 8:19 am

A sickening display of Kanadian mind control.
He might as well tell them all to all buya da house.

http://www.cp24.com/news/cheers-jeers-for-trudeau-at-calgary-town-hall-1.3256050

– Got a dose of reality:

“”You’re in Alberta right now, sir. You’re not in Ottawa,” the man shouted. “Yet when you come to Calgary, you tell people you’re sorry.
“You are either a liar or you’re confused. And I’m beginning to think it’s both.”
The man asked Trudeau whether he would take back the remark, prompting cheers from some in the crowd of more than 1,700.”

– Followed by MindControl knee jerk compliance reaction from impressionable younge people

“He asked the crowd of mostly students to put up their hands if they think climate change is real and virtually everyone did.”

#135 Reply to #89 on 01.25.17 at 8:26 am

“On May 6, 2010, North American stocks went into free fall in a market blip that wiped away billions in market value, before the losses were recovered minutes later. Many individual investors who had placed stop losses saw their stocks sell for far less than their trigger prices, just to see the securities they sold recover their former value.” – Tim Shufelt, “The stop-loss order is a double-edged sword,” The Globe and Mail, Mar. 16, 2014).

#136 Pepito on 01.25.17 at 8:28 am

#103 JimH on 01.25.17 at 12:17 am
#2 Pepito on 01.24.17 at 5:58 pm
“Because stocks are a proxy for the economy, …”
That’s a stretch, especially in the QE driven past 8 years.
================================
You can do this blog a great service.
Educate us on all you know about QE??? Anything at all would be fine…
————————————————————
You first JimH. Please show us all how the lowest borrowing costs in the history of the US contributed to much higher earnings, business expansion and productivity growth rather than to massive buybacks and dividends to investors?

#137 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 01.25.17 at 8:44 am

“By the way, for all those deplorables who come here calling the current prez “an American hero” because he’s the guy standing up for jobs and the middle class after the last president destroyed everything, well, get educated or get lost.”

So, as an educated, stock-market, 1%’er that is proud to support Trump (and lived in Texas), I should instead support T2:

“Trudeau’s oil sands ‘phase-out’ comments spark anger in Alberta ”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sparked anger and condemnation in Alberta on Friday when he said at a town hall in Ontario that the oil-sands industry needs to be “phased out” as the country transitions to a lower-carbon economy.

Well, that’s sure job progress! Who needs 20-30% of GDP anyways when you have housing?

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjUy9jLtt3RAhUH7oMKHYpdBYsQFggaMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theglobeandmail.com%2Fnews%2Falberta%2Ftrudeaus-oil-sands-phase-out-comments-spark-anger-in-alberta%2Farticle33622908%2F&usg=AFQjCNGpcErQcyvZG4EnVkl5jVOr-qleQA&sig2=tx7IkVYZCk4r5Fi1vDIBqw&bvm=bv.145063293,d.eWE

That comment was beneath you. This is not a contest. — Garth

#138 jess on 01.25.17 at 9:06 am

‘Tax haven’ Canada being targeted by offshore cheats, Panama Papers show
Country’s reputation being exploited for ‘snow washing’ global money trails, experts warn

By Dave Seglins, Rachel Houlihan, Zach Dubinsky, CBC News Posted: Jan 25, 2017 5:00 AM ET Last Updated: Jan 25, 2017 8:51 AM ET snow washing”

One firm advertises limited partnerships in Canada as the “freshest alternative” to more notorious tax havens, praising the country as a “whitelisted, respectable jurisdiction.”

#139 Victor V on 01.25.17 at 9:10 am

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/energy/trump-hard-wires-the-oilsands-into-america-first-energy-plan-with-keystone-xl-push&pubdate=2017-01-25

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, while claiming to be a supporter of KXL, told an Ontario town hall this month that Canada should “phase out” the oilsands as part of the country’s transition away from fossil fuels. Trudeau said Tuesday that he “misspoke,” and that petrochemicals from the oilsands will continue to be valuable.

#140 maxx on 01.25.17 at 9:24 am

#11 We are ripe for the picking… on 01.24.17 at 6:13

“Means less of the economic pie to go around with an increasing population.”

Agree completely and evident in myriad, tri-level tax “creations” and deteriorating social programs which are now practically part of our daily diet.

“Why I think people are borrowing themselves into oblivion to maintain lifestyle since the money is not there OR gambling in asset bubbles to make up for lost cash.”

Perhaps both. At any rate, a dangerous casino mentality has taken hold out of desperation for many, guaranteeing more consumer debt on the horizon.
The incentive to save is compromised entirely by cheap money, palace of my own, cream the buyer dreams that have infected society, courtesy of loopy, wrong-headed government policy and good-for-nothing central banks.

Luck be a lady…………beware what lurks in the fiscal fog that surrounds us.

#141 cramar on 01.25.17 at 9:39 am

To borrow a phrase from POTUS, the DOW is up “bigly” today! If it closes above 20k, bring out the champagne!

#142 cramar on 01.25.17 at 9:49 am

#37 Gary on 01.24.17 at 7:18 pm

Garth you are such a absolute idiot. Please just quit this stupid blog. You are soo delusional in your postings it really is embarrassing. What a sorry- single, lonely, piece of psiticism- msm repeating, fat, ugly, misleading, schill you are. I’m serious-QUIT.

—————–

Must be a 14-year old with an undeveloped prefrontal cortex.

#143 N on 01.25.17 at 10:00 am

Interesting Article…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/panama-papers-canada-tax-haven-1.3950552

Kind of wondering if any of this money is making it into our real estate market making it what it is today.

#144 Ole Doberman on 01.25.17 at 10:04 am

Looks like the Trumpintor has done it again pushing the DOW over 20K

He has the divine touch

The Dow hit record high after high under the Obama administration. You guys are priceless. — Garth

#145 traderJim on 01.25.17 at 10:17 am

The best part of the recent election, apart from the persuasion techniques and the psy ops stuff, is how the Donald is so completely turning things upside down.

You now have the left screaming that free trade is the best thing since sliced bread (Ronald Reagan would love that!), that Russia is the evil empire (Reagan’s dream!), and that paternalistic, misogynist Islam is a kind and gentle ideology! (Only some secretly repressed feminists could enjoy that idea)

The Dems are now the party of Wall Street and Hollywood elites, and the R’s are the party of the little guy.

And the average Democrat couple now look like Michael Moore and a ‘curvy’ woman in a vagina hat, while the R supporters couple are a guy named Rambo who’s an ex-special forces dude and his american flag bikini clad nubile girlfriend.

I need more popcorn, this is getting good.

#146 Truthbetold on 01.25.17 at 11:00 am

Garth says “So a 10% price correction in Toronto would mean a 20% plop in the Hammer, an 18% drop in Guelph or a 15% reduction in Saint Catharines. Those are big numbers, made worse by the fact local economies in the boonies are thinner with fewer jobs and diminished opportunities.

Yet, the local economies are booming according to the stats…(see below) Sorry Garth – there’s a lot going on in the Tri-cities and Guelph – and a lot of it is high tech, global stuff (see Open Text for example). Yes we make some car parts, but this area is booming because of more than just GTA expats.

On the local front, both Waterloo Region and Guelph saw their unemployment rates continue to trend downward. Waterloo Region’s rate for October was measured at 5.1 per cent – its lowest level since July 2015 – while Guelph’s fell for the fifth straight month, sitting at 4.7 per cent. That figure is still higher than the 3.9 per cent seen in February, which gave Guelph the distinction of having the lowest unemployment rate in Canada.

Those were CMHC conclusions. Read harder. — Garth

#147 Smoking Man on 01.25.17 at 11:13 am

DELETED

#148 Ole Doberman on 01.25.17 at 11:15 am

#144 Ole Doberman on 01.25.17 at 10:04 am

Looks like the Trumpintor has done it again pushing the DOW over 20K

He has the divine touch

The Dow hit record high after high under the Obama administration. You guys are priceless. — Garth
———————————————————
Actually there is nothing spectacular when stocks hit rock bottom and only had one way to go but up.

It’s much tougher to keep it going at this stage

Lame. — Garth

#149 Doug in London on 01.25.17 at 11:20 am

I wonder how many of these buyers in the Niagara Region, the frozen wilds of Georgina, or other further out places like Kitchener-Waterloo are retirees who have sold their house in the GTA (as in won the lottery) and are moving out farther afield.

#150 Gentle ,Loving Kindness on 01.25.17 at 11:28 am

#116 Tony

Thank You

#151 Doug in London on 01.25.17 at 11:33 am

It’s been brought to my attention that the DJIA crossed 20,000 today. Harry S. Dent predicted that would happen, so it’s one of the few predictions he got right. Of course, he said it would happen in 2007 or 2008, and we all know what happened back then.

#152 Smoking Man on 01.25.17 at 11:37 am

Quiz Who is the lefty loon? Group A, or Group B
Is all I’m saying.

Group A
1) Continue to learn new things.
2) Talk about new ideas.
3) Take responsibility for failures and learn
4) They forgive others
5) Embrace change
6) They want others to succeed

Group B
1) Think they know it all
2) Chirp and talk about people
3) Blame others for their Failures
4) Hold a grudge.
5) Hate Change
6) They want everyone to fail.

#153 conan on 01.25.17 at 11:54 am

The rest of the World that has embraced a tax on carbon are going to put a tax on the nations that do not have one.

200 nations signed up for this. That is not chicken feed.

Don’t think Trump has a monopoly on taxing imports. He will have no choice but to implement a carbon tax of his own. It is money out the window if he does not.

#154 Dumb Carpenter on 01.25.17 at 12:47 pm

#115 – Harry Dent and his 500 year cycle……..LOL

#155 Blah blah on 01.25.17 at 1:09 pm

Trump has already don’t more in 5 days than most politicians in 8 years.

We need a business man to run the country, not the politicians who only credentials is looking pretty in Gucci wear. Fire all politicians and run the country like a corporation!

#156 Bastiat on 01.25.17 at 1:15 pm

Obama doubled the debt Garth. Any idiot could do pretty well with the economy by doing that.

There has only been one major, globalized financial crisis since 1929. Obama inherited it from George Bush, so (as in Canada) debt was a tool of recovery. Speaking of idiots… — Garth

#157 Mr. Frugal on 01.25.17 at 1:39 pm

#155 Blah blah on 01.25.17 at 1:09 pm
Trump has already don’t more in 5 days than most politicians in 8 years.

We need a business man to run the country, not the politicians who only credentials is looking pretty in Gucci wear. Fire all politicians and run the country like a corporation!
_________________________________

Exactly! MAGA

#158 cramar on 01.25.17 at 1:40 pm

#149 Doug in London on 01.25.17 at 11:20 am

I wonder how many of these buyers in the Niagara Region, the frozen wilds of Georgina, or other further out places like Kitchener-Waterloo are retirees who have sold their house in the GTA (as in won the lottery) and are moving out farther afield.

—————–

Actually, the smarter ones go farther out. I have a growing circle of neighbours who (like me) retired, sold out of K-W, and moved here to SW Ontario. All bought for under $150k. RE agent friend says that more and more people moving to Windsor are coming from the GTA. Much smarter than retiring to K-W, since you can pocket (invest) a lot more.

Besides it is currently +7C here. Good thing the green grass doesn’t seem to be growing much or I would have to cut it.

#159 liythe on 01.25.17 at 1:45 pm

Over the Obama presidency six million net new jobs were created –..”

Garth all the jobs Obama created were at Burger joints Walmart, or part of the environmental global warming sham!

He will go down as the most inept President in US history!

This is beyond stupid. The ignorance on display here is embarrassing. — Garth

#160 pBrasseur on 01.25.17 at 2:05 pm

The Dow hit record high after high under the Obama administration. You guys are priceless. — Garth

Yeah right this is Obama’s rally! Garth you remind me of Trump a little, can’t admid you’re wrong and bullying those who challenge you…

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2017/01/25/dow-hits-20000-for-first-time/

How am I wrong stating the Dow hit multiple record highs under Obama? Go head, correct me. Show it did not happen. — Garth

#161 Balmuto on 01.25.17 at 2:08 pm

#152 Smoking Man on 01.25.17 at 11:37 am

“1) Think they know it all
2) Chirp and talk about people
3) Blame others for their Failures
4) Hold a grudge.
5) Hate Change
6) They want everyone to fail.”

#1-4 is Donald Trump to a “T”. I’ll give you #5 though – he’s not afraid of change, no matter how bad that change may be. And #6 – he wants some, I assume, some people to succeed.

#162 Jake on 01.25.17 at 2:14 pm

I think looking at the $1M average prices for the 905 and the CMHC prediction is misleading, and of limited value, since the 905 is just so big and vast.

Owning or buying house in Hamilton or Barrie or Georgina is quite a different situation vs a house in say – Richmond Hill, Vaughan, Mississauga, Markham.

Of course perspectives change too. City centres grow, other city centres emerge, Investments into transit make it easier to get around. 30 years ago we considered North York the “burbs” and now it’s part of red hot “Toronto Central”.

#163 pBrasseur on 01.25.17 at 2:15 pm

#156 Bastiat

Good choice of name, Bastiat rocks!

That genious of a man explained the failure of the welfare state before it even existed.

http://www.econlib.org/library/Bastiat/basEss5.html

#164 Sam the Sham on 01.25.17 at 2:32 pm

“…commuting into Toronto from the frozen wilds of Georgina or some forsaken grape field south of the Welland Canal is a soul-sucking, life-threatening experience.”

Actually there is now a 12 minute commercial flight from Niagara on the Lake to the TO island airport twice a day.

$1,000 a week for commuters. Yeah, great alternative. — Garth

#165 For those about to flop... on 01.25.17 at 2:34 pm

Here’s some facts about the state of the housing market I have discovered while on Pink Snow patrol in the GVA in the last month or so.

According to zolo there are currently approximately 9000 units of real estate for sale at this moment.

Since the beginning of the month there has been close to 1100 price reductions as sellers are no longer in the driving seat regarding prices.

2/3 units per 100 are currently being sold for less than what they were bought for last year in the rush to the summit as the owners try to recoup the bulk of their money.

Another 5/10 units per 100 are back on the market but as yet unsold that are asking less than 150k than what they were bought for in the last two years,with an increasing amount of owners being forced to hope for a hot spring market or to cut the cord and walk away with minor injuries as the gun goes off in their hands.

An ever increasing amount are re-listing well below the bloated 2016 assessment as they realize the number that the realtors used as the bible on the way up the mountain will only be used as a rough guide on the way down.

Some tough decisions to be made…

M42BC

#166 Smoking Man on 01.25.17 at 2:57 pm

The Future of money and transactions is not in brick and mortar.

“BlockChain”

Bet Accordingly

#167 Enough Already! on 01.25.17 at 2:59 pm

“It looks as though Trump is assembling the crew for a pirate ship.” – John Cleese

“Alternative facts are not facts; they’re falsehoods.” – Chuck Todd

“It has not been easy for me.” – Donald Trump

“The 2016 cyberattack was not just another case of simple Kompromat – meddling in the political affairs of a satellite nation or an individual dissenter. It was a direct attempt to hijack and derail the traditional processes and norms that held the United States together for more than 240 years. The attempt was even more brazen due to the apparent belief that Putin assumed that he and his oligarchy could charm, groom and select a candidate, then with the right amount of cybercrime and enough organized propaganda they could actually choose a president of the United States to do their bidding.” – Malcolm Nance

#168 InvestorsFriend on 01.25.17 at 3:00 pm

Bring Your Facts?

Today’s comments are a clear illustration that facts don’t matter. Most minds are already made up about Trump, about Obama about the state of the economy. Also minds are made up about where the markets and house prices are headed. Counter facts and counter opinions are ignored or even attacked.

Lots of doomers out there.

Meanwhile I am in Hawaiee this week. The evidence here is that lots of us have been doing very well indeed thank you.

Choose what you want to believe, whether you predict doom for yourself or wealth and good times it’s likely to come true for you. Determine your own lives. Excuses won’t matter in the end.

#169 Renter's Revenge! on 01.25.17 at 3:07 pm

#157 Mr. Frugal on 01.25.17 at 1:39 pm
#155 Blah blah on 01.25.17 at 1:09 pm
Trump has already don’t more in 5 days than most politicians in 8 years.

We need a business man to run the country, not the politicians who only credentials is looking pretty in Gucci wear. Fire all politicians and run the country like a corporation!
_________________________________

Exactly! MAGA

=================================

And if Taleb is accurate in saying that “the government’s role is between five and ten times what it was a century ago (expressed in percentage of GDP)” in

https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.oh98c572n

then it’s critical that it be run efficiently and effectively

#170 traderJim on 01.25.17 at 3:15 pm

I don’t know if Trump has done more in 5 days than Obama in 8 years, but he sure makes it feel that way, one of his under-rated skills.

And he has replaced Obama and the left’s perpetual no can do (‘what, does he have a magic wand? It can’t be done’) with a positive ‘we can do it’ attitude.

Psychology is under-appreciated in the role it plays in the economy (both the real economy and the stock market).

If Trump can turn psychology around from the no-hope no-change Obama years to ‘we can do it’ then it could get very interesting.

It’s far too early to tell though, it will be a year or two at a minimum before we can really see if he has a chance to succeed or not.

And of course he will pile on debt, but who really cares at this point? We’re way past the point of ever being able to pay it back.

#171 Lady Jane on 01.25.17 at 3:18 pm

#129 I don’t need the media to tell me that Trump is dangerous and seriously unhinged. He proves it everyday. One just needs to watch pure unadulterated footage of him. His acceptance speech, him on the campaign trail, candid personal appearances etc. No interpretation needed. And then there are his endless asinine Tweets that lay open a very troubling psychiatric disorder for all to see. The media can swing right or left depending on who is reporting, that is a fact and there’s no doubt that we are manipulated in many ways by many interests but, when the Emperor clearly has no clothes, I have the wherewithal to lean opposite of the media that tries to tell me otherwise and then attempt to use ‘alternative facts’ to make their case.

#172 rjrt81 on 01.25.17 at 3:21 pm

You just explained the “alt-right” in 6 quick points. finally a useful smoking man post.

Group B
1) Think they know it all
2) Chirp and talk about people
3) Blame others for their Failures
4) Hold a grudge.
5) Hate Change
6) They want everyone to fail.

#173 Ole Doberman on 01.25.17 at 3:21 pm

Sounds like der Trumpenfuhr has done it again – he’s going to start building that wall!

And make Mehico pay for it.

#174 jess on 01.25.17 at 3:29 pm

peak millennials?

http://www.boston.com/news/national-news/2017/01/24/peak-millennial-cities-cant-assume-a-continued-boost-from-the-young

#175 IHCTD9 on 01.25.17 at 3:38 pm

#112 JimH on 01.25.17 at 12:47 am

Actually, fool…. many of them did go home and have wild sex.
And did so again Sunday, Monday and again tonight… at about 8:27 PM…
while you were spanking the monkey, choking the chicken and posting absurdities on this here blog…
______________________________________

I didn’t watch any of these marches, but picturing some shriveled up effeminate husk of a male with a broken back doing the Gollum shuffle down main street wearing a pink hat on his head – well, it don’t make a good visual as far as spanking the monkey and choking the chicken goes…

#176 James of Америка on 01.25.17 at 3:45 pm

How about that buy America crap from Donald Trump.

Well, well, well, now it appears that the Donald not only loves foreign women but foreign cars as well. Here is to you Detroit! He has a couple of domestics in there just like his women.

BTW Kelly Ann Conway looked like Paddington Bear in her Gucci suit! Buy Америка!

http://rmautobuzz.com/many-vehicles-donald-trump-car-collection/

#177 Trump is a great man on 01.25.17 at 4:24 pm

Mr. Frugal on 01.25.17 at 1:39 pm
#155 Blah blah on 01.25.17 at 1:09 pm
Trump has already don’t more in 5 days than most politicians in 8 years.

We need a business man to run the country, not the politicians who only credentials is looking pretty in Gucci wear. Fire all politicians and run the country like a corporation
____________________________________________

That’s not true. Trump is a one of a kind. Someone like Kevin O’Leary is a business guy but he is a snake and the opposite of Trump. As a conservative I am throwing my vote to ANYONE else. That’s a warning to the conservatives.

#178 James on 01.25.17 at 4:26 pm

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump
I will be asking for a major investigation into VOTER FRAUD, including those registered to vote in two states, those who are illegal and….
7:10 AM – 25 Jan 2017
………………………………………………………
What?????????????????
http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/steve-bannon-registered-to-vote-in-two-states-despite-trumps-cries-of-voter-fraud/ar-AAmeUkN?li=AAggNb9

#179 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 01.25.17 at 4:29 pm

That comment was beneath you. This is not a contest. — Garth

Fair enough. Sorry about that then.

#180 Smartalox on 01.25.17 at 5:01 pm

@Smoking Man #152:

You’ve identified something there: it’s not Right Wing, or Left Wing, but Group A vs. Group B.

I call Group B the ‘Complainer Class’.

There are plenty of examples of Group B types across the political spectrum, on the Right and the Left. Hewing and crying about all manner of injustices, and how their views are not represented.
Group B’s are also present at all socio-economic levels. Rich or poor, you can be in Group B.

Group A are your more ‘self-actualized’ types. Again, they range across economic levels, but are characterized by people who get on with their lives, cope, when coping is required, and tend not to dwell on things that they can’t change.

Amusingly, Group B’s who feel themselves superior to Group A’s often mention the Group A’s ‘dignity’, almost as if they’re damning them with faint praise.

#181 Old gringo on 01.25.17 at 5:19 pm

Glad to hear Trump is building the wall on the Mexican
border.
Now let’s build another on the Canadian
border and we’ve got the cockroach trapped between.
Yahoo

#182 slick billy on 01.25.17 at 5:25 pm

I agree on Obama’s full recovery talk.

My American buddy used to work full time in manufacturing. Since he was laid off in 2009, he now works selling collectibles on EBAY, works part time at a convenience store and washes dishes at a restaurant.

That’s a net of +2 jobs according to Obama’s calculations.

What are people in the US complaining about? There are part-time minimum wage service jobs everywhere!

#183 Dan. T on 01.25.17 at 5:31 pm

Seriously, how is a country that simply prides itself on insane and ridiculous housing prices going to survive?

Everyone’s goal in Canada (or so it seems) is to own a piece of real estate at any cost. Yes, Canada is a great place to be, but not when you can’t afford decent accommodation.

Rents are stupid because everyone has turned into a HGTV expert and amateur landlords and owners the last 5-8 years are screwed but it just keeps going and going and going. So STUPID.

THE ONLY TOPIC IN CANADA IS REAL ESTATE- f*+k get a life people. Seriously, go outside of Canada- there are many beautiful places with nice transit (public) where people treat the subways and trams with respect and are respectful of others, and where a car is not needed and where you don’t have to commute 95 minutes one way and 70-90 minutes because you can’t live within a 45 minute commute to your workplace…

CANADA has serious lost it’s way. Joke about how materialistic Americans are….Canada is way worse. A bit more subtle but still there- all because dwelling ( a normal right in any civilised nation) has been turned into a ponzi scheme, back by tax payers, pumped by government and bought hook line and sinker by the locals.

Blow up already, I m sick on Real Estate being the ONLY topic Canadians can talk about.

#184 NoName on 01.25.17 at 5:33 pm

I was listening few different podcast earlier today, and what i found out (heard) was very interesting, while Trupm crowd fighting a hangover after celebrating victory, opposing crowd, lets call them progressive, shifted in a high gear and as we speak is slowly preparing plan for comeback, sucks for them that they don’t have a half decent leader now but someone will eventually take a lead. What they are doing, they are studying rise of tea party, and they will be applying same methods just on steroids.

Problem is Trupm never accounted for automation in any of his policies, what was always omitted from any of his speeches was that an americans at this point are losing a jobs to automation, not to outsourcing.

It will be interesting next few years.

#185 willworkforpickles on 01.25.17 at 5:36 pm

Will uncle Donny do good for the western world? Yes and No.
Yes for the first couple of years. No after that.

#186 InvestorsFriend on 01.25.17 at 5:40 pm

The Nature of Money

#166 Smoking Man on 01.25.17 at 2:57 pm
The Future of money and transactions is not in brick and mortar.

“BlockChain”

Bet Accordingly

********************************
Money has always been almost entirely intangible even when gold coins existed.

Money is transferable credit.

Banks are in essence giant computer programs that transfer credits between accounts. This has been the case for decades. The brick and mortar was just a portal. (Newsflash, over 90% of the deposits are NEVER in the vault)

Even 500 years ago one banking was largely about transferring credit. In those days it was done in paper records. The brick and mortar was just a portal. (Newsflash, the deposits were in the great majority like 90% NEVER in the vault, even back then)

I tried to read a book called the blockchain revolution. About all I learned was the guys who wrote the book had no real clue what blockchain was or its implications.

Block chain will not affect my wealth one way or the other.

#187 InvestorsFriend on 01.25.17 at 5:48 pm

Rate Reset Prefs

I have a few I bought at issue at $25. They got as low as I think $16.

I did not buy for a gain. But I did not buy for the capital loss, that’s for sure.

What could I do, except buy more on the way down? I did. Now they are giving me capital gains. I like it.

Some may never make it back to $25 as too little time to reset. But by loading up at lower prices I did okay.

Low prices in the market often provide a very silver lining. This was the case for rate reset prefs at and near their lows for sure.

#188 Alice on 01.25.17 at 5:53 pm

@ #183 Dan. T on 01.25.17 at 5:31 pm

Most people aren’t smart enough to realize that the extra money being spent on housing takes money away from

#189 InvestorsFriend on 01.25.17 at 5:54 pm

U.S. stocks rise

Home builder stocks rise

I mentioned here this past weekend I like U.S. Home builder stocks. The one I own a lot of is up 6.4% in the past two days. (roughly $31 to $33) I believe there are home builder ETFs that must be doing well.

#190 InvestorsFriend on 01.25.17 at 6:05 pm

Rate Reset Shares and capital gains

When I bought discounted rate reset pref shares at about $17 I did so precisely to make capital gains. It worked.

#191 Dan T on 01.25.17 at 6:07 pm

You sound angry ?

If you don’t want to buy a house in Canada cause it’s a Ponzi scam then don’t . And why are you reading real estate articles if they upset you ?

Read a different article …perhaps cooking ?

#192 daveyboy on 01.25.17 at 6:23 pm

@37 Gary you for real?

You the man Garth thanks for all the help!

#193 Dan.t on 01.26.17 at 6:30 am

You are right- that’s not very Canadian to be upset and speak out. I hope prices keep going up and up. I guess it really is normal. Sorry, I am happy that people like long commutes in major cities…. and the super high cost of accommodation ( of any kind). Just the Way it is I guess, stupid of me to think it could be way better.

#194 Truthbetold on 01.26.17 at 11:32 am

Yet, the local economies are booming according to the stats…(see below) Sorry Garth – there’s a lot going on in the Tri-cities and Guelph – and a lot of it is high tech, global stuff (see Open Text for example). Yes we make some car parts, but this area is booming because of more than just GTA expats.

“On the local front, both Waterloo Region and Guelph saw their unemployment rates continue to trend downward. Waterloo Region’s rate for October was measured at 5.1 per cent – its lowest level since July 2015 – while Guelph’s fell for the fifth straight month, sitting at 4.7 per cent. That figure is still higher than the 3.9 per cent seen in February, which gave Guelph the distinction of having the lowest unemployment rate in Canada.”

Those were CMHC conclusions. Read harder. — Garth

Nope – Stats Can – see below. You gotta get out of the ice cream store. There is a lot of progressive stuff going on here in Canada, while the US of Trump is building walls.

Waterloo (Ont.)
Unemployment rate (%) 5.0 5.0 0.0 -1.4 … …

Guelph (Ont.)
Unemployment rate (%) 4.2 4.5 0.3 0.3 … …

Note: Population 15 and over.
Sources: Statistics Canada, CANSIM, table 282-0135 and Catalogue no. 71-001-XIE. Last modified: 2017-01-06.