Can’t let inauguration day pass without a few words, now can we? While I’m personally excited to see the Bikers for Trump arrive and form their ceremonial Wall of Meat, financial markets have been less enthralled with things.
Trump starts his presidency with an approval rating of just 44% (Obama was almost double that), which reminds us that he lost the popular vote to a woman most Americans would like to back over. His cabinet nominees have flubbed some key lines during their confirmation hearings, a few recent POTUS Tweets have been rash and shallow and Republicans have already started to dismantle Obamacare, with no replacement plan. In short, lots of investors having sober second thoughts.
Need proof? Look at this:
Click chart to enlarge
After the giant rally following election night, the Dow has not only stalled within sight of the 20,000 mark but lost ground in each of the five sessions before the big event Friday, trading in a narrow 1% range – the tightest in history. Lots of people, clearly, have lost some confidence in what happens next. Gazillionaire George Soros said as much on Thursday, warning of an end to investor euphoria and presaging lots of volatility to come.
What were investors expecting after the shocking Trump win? A blast of government stimulus spending, quick corporate tax cuts, slashed business regulations, tough trade talk and an agenda leading to more growth, higher inflation and protectionism. They may still get some of it, but clearly not all of it. And probably not fast. Plus, it will come peppered with late-night Tweets that can, in mere minutes, destroy the shares of pharma companies, upset the forex market or crash GM stock.
So the same rebellious little puddle of testosterone that inspires five thousand Harley-hog owners to thunder into Washington also now powers the commander-in-chief. Craving attention has always been a Trump characteristic. But if that’s all we get, then – as Kevin O’Leary has proven – watch your wallet.
$ $ $
Home prices in Toronto (our last remaining bubble market) are rising wildly at the moment due to a lack of inventory. It’s leading to enhanced house lust, media hyperventilating and increasingly worried realtors. With each day of idiocy, the end draws closer. Just look at this headline from Thursday’s Toronto Star. Classic porn.
The ugly half-house in question jumped from $850,000 when it last sold 25 months ago to $1.375 million. To his credit, veteran realtor John Pasalis had this comment while everyone else was clucking and drooling: “When you see appreciations of 30 per cent a year it generally doesn’t end well. That’s a concerning thing.”
As this pathetic blog has mentioned enough times to kill roaches, prices don’t always go up. Toronto (like all cities) has suffered some momentous house price declines, the last corker being the crumble of the earlier 90s which took a decade to shake. As prices hit historic highs each month – yet the economy staggers, wages fall below the rate of inflation, debt soars and lending regs tighten dramatically – it becomes clear the status quo won’t hold. Either listings surge (which won’t happen because few can now afford to move), or buyers run out of gas trying to purchase at these insane levels.
As mentioned, there are more worried voices being heard within the real estate establishment. One belongs to agent Marisha Robinsky whose insightful charting hit the media this week. Her conclusion is that Toronto’s in the midst of a repetitious house price pattern that will shock and surprise many people. History shows valuations routinely soar above the mean, then always sink back in years of funk. Check this out:
Remember what I’ve telling you about not expecting a US-style crash, but rather a correction followed by a long melt? Well, Marisha’s work shows that, adjusted for inflation, prices have declined a third of the time – 23 of the last 63 years.
So what’s it like to be a buyer right now? “Horrible,” she says.
When realtors talk like that, take cover.
182 comments ↓
This is the beef ,I and a lot of people have with most realtors.
They only like to sing when it’s sunny ,they never want to sing in the rain.
Take this guy for example, he started doing monthly reports back at the same time this beast of a blog took flight.
He posted right through the 2009 mini correction and it was all one way traffic up until now.
So right now ,when potential clients could use his insight and analysis the most (you can get the numbers from elsewhere,but it shows transparency) he is no longer doing his monthly update and hasn’t since August last year ,as things fell of a cliff.
The average sold price in Richmond in the last 9 months has plummeted nearly 33% and yet it appears some of these guys are running around trying to find some more seals to club.
You guys can’t get another job as traffic cops,mainly because you’d always be running around the intersection waving your hands frantically, telling anyone that listens that green means go….
M42BC
http://richmondbcrealestates.com/2016/08/
So proud of Donald!
It’s all downhill from here folks – get ready for an “archduke Ferdinand” moment coming soon
China’s largest company wants to ramp up foreign buying in Canada.
https://betterdwelling.com/chinas-largest-company-just-partnered-sell-canadian-real-estate/
The Orange Octopus is about to go for a swim ,seeing what his suction cups can latch onto.
We are about to see who the real suckers were…
M42BC
“Trump starts his presidency with an approval rating of just 44% (Obama was almost double that), which reminds us that he lost the popular vote to a woman most Americans would like to back over. ”
Yeah because of the electoral college…the same thing everyone was saying gave Trump a tiny chance of winning.
and lol @ this popular vote angle. If it were up to the popular vote then New York and California would vote in weak democrat after weak democrat. Nobody cares about “the popular vote”.
MF
Looking at the graph, it seems to predict the mother of all corrections.
Assuming the interest rate trend has changed, and given the fact there are no more spouses to join the work force like in the 70’s and 80’s, the graph may even underestimate the severity of the correction.
#165 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.19.17 at 2:22 pm
“Showdown Trump vs. Merkel.
Me thinks she’ll have him licking his Schweinskoteletten.
Never bet against Mutti.”
Ah no. The US is the most powerful country in the world. The EU, everyone just ponders when it will collapse. Brexit proved just how likable Merkel is.
#66 NoName on 01.18.17 at 9:16 pm
Tired of seeing red when I look at my account.
#79 DON on 01.18.17 at 10:00 pm
Agreed
#5 For those about to flop… on 01.18.17 at 6:19 pm
The same feeling would definitely come to mind.
MF
‘Wall of Meat!!’ OMG. Too crazy, funny. The Mormon Tabernacle Choir AND Kid Rock set to perform!
Have we split off into a parallel universe scripted by Robert Anton Wilson and Kurt Vonnegut? May as well throw a pinch of Salvador Dali in there too. Clocks might melt down along with the stock market.
My husband and I left the U.S for Canada in 2003 for Canada. We used to run worst case future scenarios back and forth, seeing who might come closer one day.
We never could have dreamed up a future where reality morphs into reality TV and Donald Trump becomes president. Right now it’s a laugh riot, midnight tweets and all, but oh boy…scary. There will be tears before bedtime!!
Your chart looks a lot like a technical analysis lol
1st
An honest & forthright opinion on Kevin O’Leary by Arlene Dickinson, who sat shoulder to shoulder with him for 7 seasons of Dragons Den.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/kevin-o-leary-conservative-run-arlene-dickinson-opinion-1.3942349
And apparently he lives in Boston !
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_O'Leary#Personal_life
M80Mb
I’m just wondering why the average house price trend beats inflation, long term. The present insanity aside, doesn’t Marisha’s red line also represent a trend that is not sustainable?
A couple days ago Garth profiled a home on Bain Street – a house on the wrong side of Toronto.
It was listed for 1.399M and sold to a foreign buyer for 1.727M.
Toronto going parabolic. Nothing to see here…
Punching the trendline start/finish into the BoC’s inflation calculator shows that – yup – housing goes up at pretty much the rate of inflation. How people can expect 10%+ gains to last forever is beyond me.
Alas.
Tis a shame Trumpocaylpse2017 will faint from excitement when the CNN coverage of The Donalds Inauguration is pre-empted by North Korean No Dong ICBM missles (hows THAT for a Freudian nom de plume) winging their way towards the thousands of Japanese tourists in Pearl Harbour( hows THAT for ironic?).
The world will awake on Saturday to The Donald schlepping in the White House.
Impeached in less than 2 years……….
One more day until the beginning of the end of phake – well everything.
Toronto’s price recovery after 1989’s peak would have taken perhaps twice as long or more had it not been for Canada’s lax lending policy (that began in the mid 90s) and the sudden slashing of rates from near normal to emergency levels in 2009.
This time as prices fall in Toronto, mortgage regulations will be tightened and rates will be rising.
Add this to the fact that price gains have outstripped income gains to an unprecedented degree in Toronto and you have a recipe for a price decline that will adjust the attitude toward taking on extreme debt of at least two generations.
By the time Toronto’s corrrction is over a new line will have to be drawn on the chart in Garth’s post. It will be much flatter than the current line.
If you think that it will end badly in the GTA, you are wrong. It will continue to go up for decades to come. The word is out in China about the GTA north. There are a billion more wealthy newcomers waiting to take advantage of the wonderous offerings of the GTA north. Especially the GREENBELT. We will buy all your properties. Prices at current levels are a drop in the bucket for wealthy newcomers who want take advantage of what the area between the 400 and 404 up to Barrie has to offer. Don’t expect a crash.
Which financial institution will be issuing a mortgage on this ugly half-house that has jumped from $850,000 when it last sold 25 months ago to $1.375 million today?
Irresponsible lending practices combined with lax oversight by government regulators… Does this sound like a horror film that we have already seen?
It is only a matter of time.
Why should house prices rise faster than inflation?
#13 Flatliner on 01.19.17 at 6:12 pm asked:
I’m just wondering why the average house price trend beats inflation, long term.
*****************************************
As cities grow there is more and more (after inflation) economic activity nearby as a house ages. The commute from the Edge of the city grows ever longer. So, the land value of an existing house in a growing City would tend to increase over time.
Her Graph is somewhat flawed
Any long term chart like that should be on a log scale to show a proper trend of the percentage increase per year.
(A constant percentage growth per year comes out to a straight line on a log chart but not on a regular arithmetic scale)
At least it is after inflation which means the flaw is not as bad but it is indeed flawed.
@ #12 John Martin
re Kevin O’Leary
Made me think of Michael Ignatieff.
Random thoughts on Kevin:
How does a man with zero governmental experience who hasn’t lived here in two decades decide he wants to lead the country? He’s just not ready and neither does he have nice hair.
Trump romped thru the US prelims and 30+ days later is President. Kevin waits out the French language debate, launches and…becomes the leader of Formerly Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party of Canada and as we are in a Parliamentary system with a majority government he now must hold the party together, lead it for three full years. Not capable…he is no Stephen.
1095 days of not being on TV, of not being able to roast the poors in print, radio, TV.
Never mind the pesky 5 year contract he signed last year with NBC.
Justin has opened the door for newcomers (and Vancouver has closed theirs).
Can’t wait for Spring in the GTA!
Welcome to the 21st century where inventions your grandparents never dreamed of have globally ‘enhanced’ quality of life. Driverless vehicles, Cronut burgers, smart phones, and yes…….celebrity politicians! Congratulations to the opportunistic Kevin O’Leary who has entered into politics where name brand recognition is the new currency. The formula for political success has been etched to the south and whether you say “YOU’RE FIRED” or “I’M OUT”, a short memorable catch phrase is all you need for people to remember you by (see Bart Simpson). The O’Leary entry is timely as the Canadian appetite for deficit spending strategy will soon wane…..it always does and cries for fiscal responsibility will be heard from coast to coast. “Who will save us?” they cried. “Maybe that O’Leary guy can do something”. The political cycle continues. Sigh!
Don’t agree with your rate calls Garth (see yesterday..) but you’re spot on when it comes to housing. This sucker’s going to blow, lower rates be damned!
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/13/world/canada/british-columbia-christy-clark.html?_r=0
Hi Garth – you may have already checked out this article in the NYTimes…….before we go pointing fingers at our neighbours to the south, we should take a few moments to consider the following:
“Much of what is considered business as usual in British Columbia is illegal elsewhere in Canada.
Unlike many other provinces in Canada, British Columbia has no limits on political donations. Wealthy individuals, corporations, unions and even foreigners are allowed to donate large amounts to political parties in B.C…………….the provincial government has been transformed into a lucrative business, dominated by special interests that trade donations for political favors, undermining Canada’s reputation for functional, consensus-driven democracy.”
Why don’t Canadians ever talk about the Trudeau Liberal Elites in Canada, the Maurice Stong connection and Power Corp that are fronted by the Trudeau Liberals ?
RIP Maurice Strong, Canada’s Dr Evil. Just kidding.
How many times have you vacationed at Aga Khan’s private Island ?
Keep electing corrupt PM’s from Quebec.
Anecdotal:
Commercial property in West End Vancouver, assessed last year at $14million, sold this year for $50million plus. Rents to increase by up to $2k/month. Biz is dying in Vancouver. Who can afford rent?
What is going on?
Nah!!!!! Wait till 50% a year increase and start to panic is about right. High price beget higher prices. We have to beat HK first become the most expensive city to own before it goes down. We need to have that status quo.
It’s so exciting…. this roller coaster is so high and fun.. I’m almost pass out, one wave after the another. Marisha is a good and decent professional I gave her that.
If I ever become President Elect, and have some bills to pay, I might consider shorting and tweeting my way back to prosperity.
I guess we need a law for this now.
All Hail The Orange King…….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nm4EdHTqLhQ
Place your bets.
So these polls that put Trump at 44% approval…..done by the same folks who put him at 1% chance of winning by any chance?
Nice chart.
I seem to recall a similar chart for Vancouver posted here last year… It too went parabolic – right before it crashed.
Last call for bag holders. All aboard!
corecivic inc CXW NYSE
Nov. 4 $14.19
Today $27.51
Prison stocks for anyone?
Thanks for mentioning me, Garth, but where’s your endorsement? I know you love me!
You’re such a tease ;)
I wonder if Obama (who was an unknown) started with a high approval rating because it felt racist to say you didn’t approve of the incoming black president.
His rating sure dropped after that…
Obama was not an unknown. He served as a senator in Illinois, then in the federal Congress. He crushed the popular vote. Trump squeaked in by comparison. Facts. — Garth
Batman? The shadow looks like Batman to me….
Nice graph, coincides with my ” back of envelope” drawings and charts that in GTA we are heading back to 2011-2012 prices. look for a repeat of what happened in vancouver here, lower sales pushing higher prices and then it will be like someone hit a light switch-boom- no more sales.
the more parabolic this goes the worse off and violent the downside will be. Right now there is still emotion out there but when its turns, the herd will stampede out of the exit doors.
Simply put , there is a finite amount of people in the GTA with combined household incomes of 150-200K (that number has been pretty constant over the years) that is required to carry these 1.5 million dollar homes. At the first sign of decline or slowdown the bank of mom will shut its doors and its free fall from there on out as income simply do not support anything more then a average price of 500-600K. And thats where prices always revert back too, for anyone interested, look at the past RE bubbles in Ireland, Spain, US and look at the specfic income in every region and see were prices reverted back to after the hockey stick wave– always the same, every time.
TRUMP– even thought I thought he would win, i still cant beleive that a reality tv show star is going to be prez of the US– seems like an altered reality. I say give him a chance, see what happens- my fear is that he will do what he says against the advice of his cabinet and actually start to introduce a BAT, tariffs etc.. which will cause use a lot of pain– will soon see what the ask is from his negotiators of Canada. either way it will be entertaining for sure.
Don’t Tax Savers?
#180 yycnotretired on 01.19.17 at 5:24 pm responded to me
@#170 –
What you’re missing is that my money ALREADY got taxed. I SAVED what was left, invested it, and when I take it out or it pays me dividends I get taxed on that”new money”.
You sounds like you are advocating for a tax on wealth – If 2 people start with the same after tax money, and one spends it and one saves, why should I have to pay a tax because I’m a saver?
************************************
The notion that after-tax money should be allowed to be invested tax free is a non-starter. Basically ALL money that comes into your hands is after tax and few would suggest that there be no taxes on all investment income and gains.
Savings as such are not taxed (no wealth tax) but income on savings is taxed except for some exceptions like the TFSA and in substance the RRSP.
I pointed out that the zero taxation of unrealised gains can create a situation where someone makes a HUGE gain in wealth and pays no tax on that. Is it fair? Does it confer a huge benefit on the ultra rich?
Assuming a given level and cost of government, SOMEONE has to pay. So the argument is, should the middle class wage earner pay a 40 to 50% marginal rate and perhaps 25% average rate while the mega wealthy can face an average tax rate of close to 0% on a large increase in wealth as long as the increase is not yet “realized”
Maybe it IS fair. I think it bears looking at however.
Meanwhile, take advantage and amass wealth with the help of tax assisted and tax free and tax deferred methods. I have done that for almost 30 years now and it has worked out well. I don’t particularly think I have been over-taxed.
I am commenting on the fairness of the tax system without simply arguing for whatever is in my own best interests. (The current system works well for me, but may not be the fairest)
Trump starts his presidency with an approval rating of just 44% (Obama was almost double that), …
__________________
Yes. Trump’s candidacy, unlike those of all his rivals, was primarily backed by “filthy rabble”, … and he played them – and arrogant political establishment and the mainstream media, too – like a most excellent violin player. Backgrounder to this:
The Hate that Dare Not Speak its Name
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.ca/2017/01/the-hate-that-dare-not-speak-its-name.html?m=0
Enjoy, … or not! :)
F.S. – Comox, BC.
#19 Kevin Lee
just curious as you seem to have the “inside scoop” with HAM, where was all this HAM money in 2006-2007? what about 2009-10 or even 2011-2012? Did everyone get rich and decide they want to move to Canada in the last two years?
If T2 signs on to that extradition treaty with the Chinese govt, think you could expect the opposite, a rush to sell assets before they are frozen and former and current members of the workers party look to move to another non extradition country.
You have to give it to our neighbours – they got us all to buy in to the greatest experiment in consumption/capitalism ever known via Advertising and the entertainment industry. It has been interesting and damaging – and with the advent of the interweb well it’s just gone supernova in the last decade. I’d be interested to hear what Terence McKenna would have to say if he were still with us. In the meantime folks keep shopping and don’t watch too much online porn – word.
O’leary has no clue about policy, is narrow-minded, and has shown poor business acumen with the exception of the software company he sold. Even that turned out to be way less than expected. He’s also a dick.
Using the word ‘soon’ in economic predictions is misleading. I have heard so many times that housing prices in Victoria,BC will be taking a hit “soon”. When is soon? Massive shortage of supply right now, large demand for SFH in the core and stretching out to Sooke and Duncan. US citizens joining in the bidding wars now along with the FOMO’s and money from mainland China. How can this end soon?
#182 DR WHO on 01.19.17 at 6:11 pm
That goose in the photo looks like a real skank.
Yikes
//////////////////////////////////
Listen here pal…
It is unlikely that any of the 15% of known females that come to this blog will do anything about this, and so I will take responsibility for this since I provided the photo.
We poke fun at women ,we poke fun at men, kids ? Yep Dogs ? Sure.
You guys like to call it misogyny , where I come from its called ” woman bashin”.
It’s Garth’s blog, but if dickheads like you are going to call women skanks ,then I’m not going to provide anymore photos with females in them so you can degrade them.
Make a comment that the women who dropped the cake it’s a klutz or something but don’t take it too far…
M42BC
“When you see appreciations of 30 per cent a year it generally doesn’t end well. That’s a concerning thing.”
——————————————————————-
My street contains a grand total of 42 houses.
Two of them were sold during 2016(July and October) over asking and to this date, they are still empty.
8 people (6 are American) own more wealth than the poorest 3.5 billion people in the world combined. The great empire to the south will now be run by oligarchs (rich old white guys) who are also ultra-right ideologues.
How will this end again?
Tell me again how being “white” matters. Or “old.” — Garth
Flop
That realtor traffick light bit is priceless. Thanks for the laugh!
Trump’s nominee for treasury, and nominee for Commerce both rule out a ‘Border Adjustment Tax’. Apparently Trump was talking about targeting specific companies for increased taxation, because that’s more fair.
As for volatility, those of us who play the long game, and who have to put up with the bleating and chest thumping of investment ‘geniuses’, who make and lose money seemingly at random, (but never in equal measure) when markets fluctuate, we’ll, it might be fun to see how long they ride their bucking broncos.
I bet that there’ll be more than a few luxury toys sold at auction before long. Bring a steam-cleaner.
Trump had better watch out though: when a Democrat pisses off their electorate, the results are protest marches, and maybe a sternly worded letter.
But if Trump fails to satisfy the fantasies of the alt-right-wing gun nuts constitutional literalists that elected him to ‘drain the swamp’ and ‘make America great again’ (with NO consensus on what that means), then the ‘2nd amendment types’ that Trump himself evoked in his campaign might be coming for HIM.
After all, the conditions that convinced the framers of the US Constitution to secure the rights enshrined in the second amendment (a leader with debts to foreign powers, about to use the office of President for further personal enrichment) are closer to fruition now, than they ever have been before.
#19 Kevin Lee
Wow! Did you ever hear of a place called Vancouver?
My guess is that Trump will keep NAFTA and rectify any trade imbalances meaning problems for raw material producers and manufacturers.
I read that Soros lost $1 billion betting against Trump.
I read that interview by Arlene Dickinson on O’Leary. I’d agree with her but maybe he has a good side somewhere?
I watched Dragon’s Den for a few seasons. At first I thought O’Leary was the Prince of Darkness. Later, I realized that he was amoral putting money above everything else.
Even later, I realized that he has some good qualities: He can identify a business’ problems, instantly. At one point he even shed a few tears for his family which looked genuine.
Has he finally grown a heart? I doubt it.
By the way, I wanted a minority Conservative government in the last election. I thought Harper was running the country well but was very bad for democracy. I actually think Justin is doing a good job of leading the country. I wasn’t sure if he had it in him.
”Trump starts his presidency with an approval rating of just 44% (Obama was almost double that), which reminds us that he lost the popular vote to a woman most Americans would like to back over.”
——————————————————————
I wonder if its the same people conducting those ratings are the same ones that said that Hillary had a 90% chance of winning the presidency. I wouldn’t put too much faith in those either. Just saying.
whomever thinks housing in the GTA *cough* kevin li *cough* is delusional and doesnt learn from history. I hope these people will admot their faults when it comes to fruition but I wont hold my breath…
people in vancouver who are renting or trying to buy are so f…ked in so many ways.
median price for 1bdrm in Vancouver now $1800 plus (add utilities etc)….how are singles, those with average wages or the elderly to survive?
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/4-per-cent-rent-hike-median-price-now-1-870-for-one-bedroom-1.3248675
no wonder so many, based on a recent survey, want to leave this soul less place in the next 5 yrs:
http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2017/01/12/vancouvers-management-class-planning-to-cash-in-and-leave.html
of course I forgot the “wont come down” part… damn it
Tell me again how being “white” matters. Or “old.” — Garth
They are old rich white guys. They live in luxurious gated privilege with all the trappings of unlimited wealth and power. The suffering of ordinary people will not affect them. They will rule in their own interests, not ours.
I get the rich part. Now explain the racism and ageism. — Garth
Dear Millenials voting for T2 and his band of thieves.
So why does running massive deficits make any difference?
The following article explains.
http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/just-the-interest-on-government-debt-now-equals-7000-a-year-for-a-canadian-family-of-four-fraser-institute
And this is today, with T2 and the gang just getting started, and interest rates at their lowest level ever.
Sure you can argue that the debt never needs to be fully paid back.
But the interest must be paid always, otherwise Canada declares bankrupcy.
So when T2 is done, and interest rates are far higher, and for some reason you are being taxed into poverty, and you can’t make your mortgage payments, or your health care is even more pathetic than it already is, remember the article and remember how you voted for the drama teacher who was going to spend his way to prosperity all by growning the economy from the heart outwards.
And remember. You did it to yourselves.
Yes Canada is back.
Back to the fiscal mess of the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s, all started in 1967 by none other than T1 who was elected for his good looks and suave personality.
excerpt from article on people wanting to leave Hongcouver in the next 5 or so yrs.
http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2017/01/12/vancouvers-management-class-planning-to-cash-in-and-leave.html
”The poll, conducted by Insights West, found that 40 per cent of Vancouver homeowners in Generation X (35 to 54) were planning to sell their home and move to a more affordable city. Of Millennials (18 to 34), 35 per cent planned to make the same move, compared to 28 per cent of boomers.
“That’s a massive outflow of potential leaders,” said Gierasimczuk. “It’s going to have big implications for Vancouver already dealing with not enough talent and not enough of a competitive large headquarter set compared to Calgary, compared to Toronto.”
The survey also shows that B.C.’s recently introduced tax on foreign buyers in Metro Vancouver, and the falling home prices that have followed, are causing angst among homeowners, Gierasimczuk said.
“It’s a combination of the (real estate) bubble, it’s a combination of foreign investment, that foreign investment that was fuelling the bubble now begin torn out from people who have been planning their retirement around their nest egg,” he said.
The Insights West poll surveyed 1,714 British Columbians between Oct. 13 and Oct. 31. It has a margin or error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.”
The chart is kinda looking like a decline back to the 2007/8 level.
#29 Randy on 01.19.17 at 7:03 pm:
“Why don’t Canadians ever talk about the Trudeau Liberal Elites in Canada, the Maurice Stong connection and Power Corp that are fronted by the Trudeau Liberals ?
RIP Maurice Strong, Canada’s Dr Evil. Just kidding.”
———————————————-
Exactly!
Maurice Strong, in case people have forgotten, moved to China and enthusiastically promoted/encouraged the downfall of western civilization.
As much as people complain/ed about Conservatives, the Liberals have done–and are–much worse.
At least Conservatives know how to use a calculator.
…M Strong is hopefully roasting.
Interesting batman shadow on the piC.
Just signed up to consevasive party. And volunteer to help Oleary.
https://olearyforcanada.ca/en/home/
Do it my fellow deplorables
#29 Randy on 01.19.17 at 7:03 pm
Keep electing corrupt PM’s from Quebec.
**********************************************
Honestly that’s the absolute worst aspect of QC, is corruption.
Those from RoC have no idea what REAL poor construction and related public works crooks are about. complaining about ‘poor’ roads, bridges, high taxes or TTC in ON makes me really LOL.
Check this out (in english gazoo for benefit of non-french readers).
http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/construction-woes-bishop-st-to-be-torn-up-until-2020
So it’s going to take almost 5 years, let me repeat that, FIVE YEARS to basically dig a hole in the ground with no benefit at all to the transport system itself. Not especially the downtown core road that is basically blocked until then. Seriously entire 30+ storey buildings are completed in 2 years.. max..
Can dig plenty of examples but man QC should separate 100% from Canada as a thank you for all the decades of transfer payments.
I raised here and even still sometimes crap like this I cannot believe that I am somehow not living in an alternate 1980s communist oblast.
Canada not raising rates. they will sacrifice the currency. But don’t play FX if you’re an amateur…you’ll get killed by the powers that be even though the trend is down for the loonie.
Statscan will have to continue to fudge inflation data so it can keep the sheep under control.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-19/canada-s-most-dangerous-u-s-import-currency-strength
I get the rich part. Now explain the racism and ageism. — Garth
I’ll jump in here. There is no such thing as “AGEISM”. Everyone will go through those old age years as the years go by.
Racism is real as you won’t change race as the years go by.
So lets stop with the imaginary isms.
Treating people prejudicially based on their age, skin colour or sex may be fine where you live. But not here. — Garth
A Shiba Inu puppy casting a Batman-like shadow. What a delight! One of the best breeds to consider, but hopefully those without the pedigree in need of a good home will receive first consideration.
The Jaguar wonders why mean spirited people everywhere are so intent on shredding the new POTUS before he even takes office. He didn’t vote himself in did he? 60 million people are responsible for that. Can all of them be so summarily dismissed as racists, rascals and the ridiculous? Am I old fashioned to think that elections are a democratic ritual where once the results are in people should get behind the winner if they are really proud of their country and want to move forward? In sports they call this ‘TEAM”. Mercy! Give the guy a chance to be sworn in and let’s see what he can do. Faith. Hope. Charity. Three little bi-planes that helped save the great island of Malta during WWII. But also three characteristics of the human condition that are very under-employed at the moment. You have to be crazy to run for President in the current environment. Especially if you have billions. Why would you subject your family to all that comes with that if you have a comfortable life? Maybe because you care and you want to make a difference. Let’s just give him a chance and see what he can do..
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As a follow up, the general working people are in general very nice and decent people once you get to know them. I do tend to like the more Euro standoff to strangers than the insincere American ‘friendly’ sort of encounters.
Just these governances (doesn’t matter which flavour of party) are equally terrible.
@#25 Kevin Li
“Can’t wait for Spring in the GTA!”
********************************************
Realtors.
Encouraging their “clients” that they should catch a falling knife.
ANYTHING for a buck.
Proof that realtors have the morals of alley cats in heat.
Politicians, Used car salesmen,ambulance chasing lawyers and at the bottom of the money dung heap………dung beetles …aka….Realturds.
#31 Lulu on 01.19.17 at 7:08 pm
Nah!!!!! Wait till 50% a year increase and start to panic is about right. High price beget higher prices. We have to beat HK first become the most expensive city to own before it goes down. We need to have that status quo.
————————————————–
Highly unlikely.
Hong Kong is a city of 8 million and over 80% of the population live in government housing. That means that less than 20% of the population are responsible for their real estate problem and almost half of them are from directly over the border in China.
Toronto’s households are now 70% homeowners and only 30% renters according to something Garth posted a few days ago. We are reaching the point where there simply won’t be enough people to maintain the current demand AND have the ability to pay for it.
It’s no different than selling iphones or any other product. At a certain point in time the sellers have cannibalized all of their future sales by building and selling so many houses and condos and there simply won’t be enough people with money or willingness to buy anymore.
“Not to expect a US-style crash here.”
So it’s different here.
We’re not America. Why would it be the same? — Garth
Yeah yeah yeah,
It’s not Trump’s fault the Liberals have made Canada and in particular Ontario an increasingly unattractive place to do business.
It’s not Trump’s fault the Federal government goosed RE during 2008/09 to falsely insulate Canadians from the Financial Crisis.
It’s not Trump’s fault Ontario is over $300 billion in debt and climbing.
It’s not Trump’s fault today’s males are neutered and can’t do math, so when the old lady starts cracking the whip, saying buy me a house, these eunuchs can’t sit them down at the kitchen table and explain to them why it’s a terrible decision.
Bring on O’Leary. Can’t wait to hear the Liberals bleed even more.
@#57 Marius
“They are old rich white guys. They live in luxurious gated privilege with all the trappings of unlimited wealth and power. The suffering of ordinary people will not affect them. They will rule in their own interests, not ours.”
*******************************************
So which is it?
You’re bitter because your not rich? Not old? Or not white?
Time to take a long look in the mirror Bub and figure out what you’re doing wrong…..intellectually, financially, persionally?
Blaming rich old white farts( who probably worked their asses off to get where they are) for your personal problems might make you feel better but it aint gonna get you very far.
Not to worry. You’re still winning for now.
I can only assume you’re young and youth is something that no old fart can get back no matter how rich they are.
I miss the days when they had to convince people that houses were a good investment and had to insist it was a Hedge against inflation….taking on a mortgage to buy something so expensive…I miss those innocent days. I guess we can look forward to when “foreign buyers” have to sell at a loss like 50% to all the canadians who by then may just say no.
Who will fall first? TO prices or Donald?
Good pic today. All dogs secretly long for their inner felines.
Want to know why Obama was such a failure? He was just another dog lover. Pathetic.
http://honey.nine.com.au/2017/01/19/11/32/michelle-obama-takes-final-walk-through-white-house
Donald and Melania are cat people.
America will be great again!
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“Speaking of holes, if Ms. Wynne and Monsieur Trudeau dig us any deeper, we’ll be paying off in yen or yuan.”
(Toronto Sun article today, credit Mike Strobel, link below)
http://www.torontosun.com/2017/01/19/debt-with-dishonour
Will you be paying your $1,752 interest payment for 2016 with debit or Visa?
negative equity…from the BC libs starter loan for 1st time buyers.
Global News BC: “”Home partnership loan warning”
http://globalnews.ca/video/3190877/home-partnership-loan-warning?platform=hootsuite
Our Trump to the rescue!!!
Bye bye Trudeau
haha same ‘geniuses’ who said Trump had no chance to win (wrong!), then that the electoral college would not elect him (wrong!), then that he would either be assassinated or thrown in jail before inauguration (wrong!) now saying he will be impeached.
So much hilarity in just one election, it will never get better than this.
I really hope the delusions continue, I don’t know what would keep me entertained otherwise.
Why Leaders Eat Last
#25 kevin li the realturd
#################
HAVE U SOLD YOUR MILLION DOLLAR SHACK OR ARE
U WAITING FOR THE SPRING TIME TO SELL IT FOR LESS
I don’t want to submit a comment such as “bump” to refresh the fine reading material here in the comments. Instead, I offer something of substance I found on @stats_canada, namely:
“The Fort McMurray fire was 75% as damaging to Alberta as the Gretzky trade.”
One More Sleep to Trumpocalypse
Lay down your heads tonight in peace. It will be the last night in your lifetime that you can do so.
Unbelievable chaos and destruction lie ahead.
Worked. 42 more comments and all of you benefitted m
#3 Doug t on 01.19.17 at 5:41 pm
Hold those historic horses, Doug :)
This comes first it dir the lat two times), and only then we see if we can get a better future by kicking some nuts. Always remember, this narrative’s promises are not based on kicking nuts (although some nut kicking happens, occasionally), it is for going to Mars. From a McMansion. With an A7. Occasionally, with a Harley :) Towed by a Hummer.
Honestly, some of the anti Toronto typing here qualifies as hate speech
New York, LA, Toronto
in order of population
that’s it
suck it up
Bain sold so much over list, no one here dares to type the sale price lest someone goes into shock and we lose a typist
#70 you forgot our immigrant every year quota, is not the main reason, but part of it for sure to make up to it.
Also our dollar now is so low to a lots of wealthy foreign investors, that will add it to the fire as well.
And lastly the historic low interest rates and province try every way to keep it afloat. TBH, I don’t think there will be a severe correction, again, What do I know..lol
#19 & 25 kevin li, lee (whatever)
######################
HICKORY DICKORY DOCK
li continues to mock
THE MARKET IS DOWN
li is a CLOWN
HICKORY DICKORY DOCK
OOOHHH
52 HAWKRIDGE Avenue, Markham – listed 48 hours ago for $1.248 million sold today for $1.580 million with a bully offer.
WTF?!
I suspect the spring will be see price increases of at least 5% based on low inventory alone.
Mr. Wonderful’s less than wonderful business history http://bit.ly/2jqsPoH.
Is he really that much better than the snowboarding drama instructor?
Treating people prejudicially based on their age, skin colour or sex may be fine where you live. But not here. — Garth
—-
… and also has great sense of humor.
Creating people in different colours is a spectacularly simple way to measure the intelligence, humanity, solidarity, spirituality, etc. of both each individual, various groups and a society as a whole.
#25 RE AGENT LI – do you work for specter by chance lol
Do you really believe “foreign investors” will be lining up to buy 1.6 M rundown semi’s with 20 foot lots or 500 sq ft cookie cutter boxes in the sky: Keep Dreaming
The only players left are the greatest and greediest fools trying to cash in before the greatest “PONZI SCAM RUNNING implodes upon itself as will become evident very soon
OK, so that charts kinda scary…plateau, anyone? Funny how I can’t figure out if it’s the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning…
Anyway, due to our recent spate of decent weather, I have to choose between going to the shop and paintin’ Harleys tomorrow, or staying on the couch and switchin’ back n forth between Barrett-Jackson (fools and their money being parted) and Trumps inauguration (money being used to part the fools)
Think there might be more entertainment value in Washington than Phoenix…and it’s not like anyone is gonna be goin’ ridin’ next week anyhow, so maybe a UDO is in order.
(Un-earned day off, haha)
Is this life thing getting confused with reality, or vice versa?
KO – obsequiously self centred; could not watch Dragon’s Den because of him
Vancouver – my son attends UBC – while he and his pals all love Vancouver (many of his pals are wealthy from other countries), none of them will be remaining in Vancouver because of the real estate situation – they see it as hopeless and so will evacuate, accordingly; Vancouver will be losing a great deal of its young
Trump has announced he is going to cut Govt by 10% meanwhile Canada keeps raising taxes hiring govt workers.
WE ARE DOOOOOMED.
Why shouldn’t a reality-TV star be president? The whole thing is too surreal to be believed anyway.
The problem with Trump’s plan to “drain the swamp” is that the alligators that live in it are going to eat him first. His plan for draining it has him wading in to his chest to hold the suction hose. Also it’s a pretty big swamp so he’s going to need a fleet of those sucker trucks. It’s not like he’s just got to drain 1 or 2 septic tanks.
When 10,000 bikers think they need to form a human wall to protect the persistent-elect from a mob of angry snowflakes you know things are weird indeed. Since when do bikers care about politics? Since when do snowflakes leave their safe spaces to carry pitchforks? It has to have been scripted for TV by CNN to improved ratings.
Wait a minute… that graph is inflation adjusted… so are we supposed to believe that a house only costed twice the average yearly salary of someone in the 60’s?
And that the trend has been happening for 60 years? That’s an amazing appreciation when you look at it in inflation adjusted dollars… or am I missing something here?
I personally would love to hear what Kevin (KO) has to say..
1. About his history … http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/01/26/news/real-and-shocking-story-kevin-olearys-business-career
2. In French.
I was looking forward for who would lead the Conservatives.
But I sure hope it ain’t KO’d.
How do Wealthy families avoid the capital gains tax upon death?
Due to capital gains taxes, ordinary families can face the loss of the family cottage upon death of the parents / grandparents.
Upon death of the second spouse RRSPs and RIFs face deemed disposition and capital gains taxes that can exceed the 40% or so share that the government contributed to the RRSP through the initial tax refunds.
Unregistered accounts face deemed disposition upon death and therefore capital gains taxes.
What about the really rich families that control large corporations? I don’t seem to ever recall hearing about the family having to sell any large chunk of the shares to cover estate taxes. Why is that? Do they manage through clever tax strategies to pass virtually the whole of the shares to the next generation? Is that fair and socially desirable? Buffett considers this to be a form of welfare for the rich. (ALL of his Berkshire shares will go to charity.)
If you can pass shares onto heirs without tax and if the gains on those shares remain unrealized then a family can compound wealth tax free for literally centuries. Fair? Some families have amassed wealth that can rech what I call escape velocity. This is when the wealth is so large that the family will spend only a minuscule percentage each year and the fortune will there compound up at rates approaching double digits. Such a fortune can grow to the moon.
You can take this as a complaint against the rich or as a motivator to do it in your own family. If one family gets an ever larger share of even a growing pie, the share for others must be lower on a percentage basis.
Hey Mike from Mtl, since you were talking about corruption,I will put this up for you showing that Montreal still owns the title for biggest Olympic budget overrun by 720%…
M42BC
https://howmuch.net/articles/olympic-costs
First….why Hillary did not win the popular vote is explained by the millions of voter registrations and bogus drivers licenses given to illegals over eight years into blue state is a matter of public record and negates that idea. Didn’t the Liberals under Pierre Trudeau first use targeted mass immigration dumps into opposition ridings to dilute democracy? ..let’s call the Obama regime for what it was….manipulative and un democratic.
Second…markets can’t go straight up without pause. If Trumps guys do what they say they’re going to it will be gangbusters for the stock market post inaug…..don’t bet against the yanks when it comes to greed…and greed is good. Why do some people keep repeating the media spin that Trumps election was shocking…..everyone I know saw it from a mile away in the weeks after the FBI statements….and placed their bets accordingly. I bought banks and energy as I stated for the record. Made a pile on drillers…..doubled my money and family accts. lovely that everything else goes sideways and I collect fat dividends to buy more stocks….like the surging BMO I bought at $95 last month….near 98 today.
Third…George Soros is a political crime lord…funding nefarious groups to foment unrest leading revolution and coups….like Ukraine. He is wanted for such crimes in two European countries and will likely be extradited from the US when Trump is prez. Soros has recently established a beach head in Quebec….likely he fears the new president for different reasons than those he’s stated.
But….he’s got the extremist elites….Gerald Butts and Trudeau likely crapping kittens with the threT of withholding millions from their campaigns if he’s arrested for crimes against humanity. Soros is a carpet bagger and a menace.
Four…. Trudeau is arming himself to face down Trump…at who’s bequest? The news media is reporting a battle brewing….why? Canada has nothing to defend itself with…Trudeau …through his Rasputin like advisor…Gerald Butts….is going to drag this country into recession and worse. Trump could be a two term president….and we saw from Obamas army attacking our energy industry what damage can be done in eight years.
Amazing replies for my posts stating part of the GTA will continue to rise in price (rapidly) in 2017.
And it will.
#92 Win Wachsmann on 01.19.17 at 10:16 pm
Mr. Wonderful’s less than wonderful business history http://bit.ly/2jqsPoH.
Is he really that much better than the snowboarding drama instructor?
…..
Lisa has a better chance with Canadian voters. Seeing that Mr wonderfull never bought my book after all my begging and Lisa did. I’m leaning toward Lisa Riatt.
Suprise.
#33 Deplorable Dude on 01.19.17 at 7:16 pm
So these polls that put Trump at 44% approval…..done by the same folks who put him at 1% chance of winning by any chance?
—
Hey, that’s clever. You must have been up all night coming up with that one.
#99 Kevin Li on 01.19.17 at 11:07 pm
Amazing replies for my posts stating part of the GTA will continue to rise in price (rapidly) in 2017.
And it will.
….
Look for the hockey stick. If it’s got a good curve going. Bail. A bit more dry wall and a few pot lights. I’m ready.
#104 kevin li
—————-
YOU ARE DELUSIONAL. STOP SQUINTING AND OPEN YOUR EYES, if you can.
#65 TRT on 01.19.17 at 8:34 pm
I get the rich part. Now explain the racism and ageism. — Garth
I’ll jump in here. There is no such thing as “AGEISM”. Everyone will go through those old age years as the years go by.
Racism is real as you won’t change race as the years go by.
So lets stop with the imaginary isms.
Treating people prejudicially based on their age, skin colour or sex may be fine where you live. But not here. — Garth
—————
Garth, here you go again.
Canada has 33 million people.
There are 7.3 billion on this planet.
Are you the arbiter on what is the standard for the world’s cultural norms?
My blog. My rules. Don’t push. — Garth
Obama on voter fraud at his final press conference as president:
”
“This whole notion of voting fraud, this is something that has constantly been disproved. This is ‘fake news’.”
“The notion that there are a whole bunch of people out there who are not eligible to vote and want to vote. We have the opposite problem. We have a bunch of people who are eligible to vote, who don’t vote.”
He even called it “fake news”.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-18/obama-whole-notion-voter-fraud-fake-news
See the video it looks like he really did say that.
Trump will finally show to the World that the American Emporer has no clothes.
All talk, no substance.
The Chinese will have him for Dim Sum.
Since George W. Bush, America has been pretty much isolated from the rest of the World.
Except for the vassal countries Canada and Great Britain.
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#46 For those about to flop… on 01.19.17 at 7:58 pm
Thanks for that Flop. Now I wish someone had called out Smoking Man yesterday for referring to his prospective daughter-in-law as a “socket”.
Shit . Addicited oxy folks.
Number 2 who is getting married soon had devistaing news. A kid, 18 years old. His client at the rehab center. OVER dosed. His first loss I guess.
My kid was there himself at a dark point in time in his life.
My son is crushed. He lover the kI’d.
Addicts. If you quit rember your old dose will kill you.
This is why I will never quit drinking what I drink.
#89 lulu
Jan 20,2016 1$Cad = 4.5 Yuan
Jan 20,2017 1$Cad = 5.16 Yuan
Here, you can create your own charts, the trend is clear, I’ll start.
http://www.x-rates.com/graph/?from=CAD&to=CNY&amount=1
Or Europeans?
Jan 20,2016 1$Cad = 0.64 Euro
Jan 20,2017 1$Cad = 0.7 Euro
Which wealthy foreign investors are buying with the low Cad$?
Can$ vs US$ is dropping, so HAM now = hot American money? Hot Alberta money? Hot Albanian money?
Probably not Albanian Leks as they’ve also dropped over the last year by ~12% vs Can$.
Can$ sucks, but most other currencies suck more lately.
Locals borrowing huge $ is most of the markets.
62% in 2 years
aka hockey stick
aka hyperbolic trojectory
aka capitulation
and it only ends one way. the end is near … this fall?
kevin o leary as conservative leader? sure if pc wants to dig a bigger hole to bury the party.
Arlene Dickinson wrote a very nice piece about ko’s character on cbc
http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/kevin-o-leary-conservative-run-arlene-dickinson-opinion-1.3942349
she gave many reasons ko should not be the prime minister.
Brett Wilson gave a “rebuttal”, and offered an “endorsement”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/brett-wilson-kevin-o-leary-1.3944082
let me quote the best part:
Q: Are you endorsing Kevin O’Leary?
A: Today I would endorse Kevin O’Leary, absolutely, because I want to see him in the process. Remember, we’re talking about the leadership of the Conservative Party. We’re not talking about the prime minister of Canada. That’s going to be a different conversation.
ah ha ha ha ha ha. no one who works with ko wants him to be the prime minister.
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Re: #106 Smoking Man on 01.19.17 at 11:13 pm
Like hell they will, prices are falling as we speak. You must not live anywhere close to the GTA.
Since when do snowflakes leave their safe spaces to carry pitchforks? It has to have been scripted for TV by CNN to improved ratings.
———————————————
That’s right. The bulk of the protesters will have been paid to show up. According to The Washington Times ads have been placed in newspapers in 24 US cities asking for people to demonstrate at the inauguration for the remuneration of $2500 per person.
Christy Clark… Please release me…
Only problem is who to love next?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5yYwiYEJ_8
House?
The piece of crap on the picture is called a ‘house’ and ‘goes’ for 1.4 mil?
It only proves my opinion that GTA is the place with highest concentration of idiots-without-limits per capita in the known universe.
HOw
Now everything will soon be costing more.
How so.
The Trump Tariffs will bring inflation.
Inflation where essentials skyrocket upward and hard assets are devalued.
Inflation that leads to rising interest rates unavoidable.
The aftermath of tariffs and trade wars to come be that Trump speak not of forked tongue.
#42 toronto1 on 01.19.17 at 7:50 pm
#19 Kevin Lee
just curious as you seem to have the “inside scoop” with HAM, where was all this HAM money in 2006-2007? what about 2009-10 or even 2011-2012? Did everyone get rich and decide they want to move to Canada in the last two years?
If T2 signs on to that extradition treaty with the Chinese govt, think you could expect the opposite, a rush to sell assets before they are frozen and former and current members of the workers party look to move to another non extradition country.
***
When one of us buy, all of us buy. That’s why Vancouver went up. Then the BC government closed the doors. Now we are buying GTA north. Doors wide open, and much more to offer. GREENBELT. Best place to put down roots. So much to offer.
We are not worried about Chinese government, easy to get our money out. Canadian government needs more wealthy newcomers.
Buy GTA north while it’s still cheap. Price is going up!
Cousin and friend both baught houses north of aurora for shy of 1m…. there’s nothing there. This won’t end well.
@70
City of Toronto homeownership rate is less than 50%
@#90 Andrew
it should read.
“Hickory Dickory Dock
Li pushes his realtor crock
2017 markets go down
Proving Li is a clown
Leaving no one left to mock”
From a realtor I know, social media post.
“[A]birthday present for my sister and her fiancé: their offer was accepted amongst multiple offers on their dream home”
– wow, they paid the MOST out of everyone in this city. Woohoo? I’d skulk away.
Good Day Garth and Deplorables,
I am bulging with excitement as my undocumented servants dress me for this tremendous, tremendous day!
But tomorrow will be even better – the women are marching on Washington!!!
I will be there with them, grabbing every one of them by their &*(&$%^)##’s !!
Because when you’re a star, they let you do anything :)
If USA doesn’t care about Mexico (122.3M people) or China (1357M people) or Germany (80.62M people), then why would he care about pissing off Canada (35.16M people)?
Trump proposes to dismantle years and years of good works done by previous administrations within the first few months of becoming POTAS.
Canada and Mexico will be the worst casualties.
Hi Garth. It’s been a while.
On the old rich white guy thing….
Marius just KNOWS that there are no young rich white guys…or no old rich black guys….or no young rich Asian women…I think I’ve made my point.
Marius and other SJW’s need someone to blame for their failures and the “patriarchy” and “old rich white guys” are a convenient group to scapegoat because in this society they are the only group it’s ok to attack.
#106 Smoking Man on 01.19.17 at 11:13 pm
#99 Kevin Li on 01.19.17 at 11:07 pm
Amazing replies for my posts stating part of the GTA will continue to rise in price (rapidly) in 2017.
And it will.
….
Look for the hockey stick. If it’s got a good curve going. Bail. A bit more dry wall and a few pot lights. I’m ready.
……
Don’t forget to fix the shower.
Kevin O’Leary. Trump with table manners.
#64 TRT on 01.19.17 at 8:31 pm
Canada not raising rates. they will sacrifice the currency. But don’t play FX if you’re an amateur…you’ll get killed by the powers that be even though the trend is down for the loonie.
Statscan will have to continue to fudge inflation data so it can keep the sheep under control.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-19/canada-s-most-dangerous-u-s-import-currency-strength
——-
As expected, the fudged Statscan core inflation data suggested lowest inflation since 1996.
Laughable and no credibility.
Interesting to see Marsha’s chart. Each high has progressively deviated more from the mean; 1974, 1989, 2016. Also symmetrically 25 years apart. You should have told people to buy in 2008 and sell in 2015 – just kidding….
Problem with those charts is that the human eye naturally looks for patterns, and once found you could justify any thesis.
Saying to leverage yourself in 2008 to the hilt and carry five homes to sell in 2014/2015 would have been rife with risk.
The only statement that is correct is that prices always tend to overshoot and then over correct from any mean. Don’t really need a chart for that…
I think that comes from human tendency to covet rising assets and abandon falling assets – think hockey cards; intrinsic value of 1 cent or less.
I don’t think that chart means anything for the future based on past performance; sounds like a mutual fund disclaimer doesn’t it?
So it begins, Trumps main contact point, Kelley Conway cancels her official visit to meet Canadian executives stating specifically that it’s retaliation for Juice Box Justin blew off President Trumps historic inauguration. Trudys pathetic advisors, Gerald Butts and George Soros in particular, have screwed Canada from the get go vis a vis what could have been a no brainer lead in to a good relationship with our largest trading partner. Our government is setting up a confrontation….on purpose. This is bad news for Aca Nada
Garth: Oh look, you posted a technical analysis chart. So let’s examine the data from it.
The Trend line is a good “medium point” of where house prices SHOULD be in Toronto, approx. $500,000.
Support (that’s the bottom price, if you line up all the lowest dips) is $400,000.
Resistance (that’s the highest price it should be, if you line up all the highest blips) is EXACTLY where the price is now.
Thus, technically, we can say:
The price should bounce between:
$400,000 to $740,000. If it clears $750,000 and stays there, then we have confirmation pricing will go higher. If the price can’t break $750,000 then we COULD see it fall to $400,000. If it breaks under $400,000 then the RESISTANCE points are:
$400,000
$375,000
$275,000
Buy wisely. Never buy at the top of a price resistance without confirmation.
#127 TurnerNation
wow, they paid the MOST out of everyone in this city
——————————-
Not necessarily. The sellers might have been seeking “just the right couple” to buy the cozy home they so lovingly cared for all these years, even if they did have the lowest bid.
#123 Kevin Lee on 01.20.17 at 5:53 am
……………………………………………………..
Hey everyone… ignore this Kevin Lee/Li whoever. He sounds like a worried home owner looking to sell in the spring trying to imagine/start a FOMO buying frenzy. Kevin, sorry buddy. It’s either going to happen or it ain’t.
What, that crummy little semi, which sold for 850 grand last year sold for 1.375 million recently? Yes, listings won’t surge because can afford to move you say. If I had an overpriced place like that selling it and cashing in that winning lottery ticket would be the first thing on my mind. Where to go? If you are ready to retire, or ready to retire sooner (not hard when you sell a house for over a million) then sell it and leave Toronto behind and go somewhere cheaper. Hey, for 1.375 million I would be willing to go to a far away place like Yellowknife if I had to. If you’re not ready to leave, find a place to rent first then sell the house.
I don’t know why more people aren’t cashing in their winning lottery tickets now. It’s a once in a lifetime chance.
Where do you put your money? there’s always something on sale somewhere, like EWW-NY.
Gartho you continue to dis the Trumpenfuhr
He said Sunday he has a health plan ready and it’s going to be wonderful
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-obamacare-idUSKBN15005C
You can’t just dismantle Obamacare and have nothing in place – political suicide
I have a weird feeling the speculators are holding back inventory for the spring and may flood the market more than we expect
#112 LP on 01.20.17 at 12:00 am
#46 For those about to flop… on 01.19.17 at 7:58 pm
Thanks for that Flop. Now I wish someone had called out Smoking Man yesterday for referring to his prospective daughter-in-law as a “socket”.
//////////////////////////////////////////
That’s o.k LP.
People on here are going to do what they do.
It’s not my job to say what is fair play, but the reason I called that guy out was the fact I’m not going to waste my time importing pictures of females from an image sharing website just so someone can take a cheap shot.
If the guy wants to do that, I suggest he goes directly to to the source of the photos and leave a comment there and leave this beast of a blog out of it.
I am no angel and have got carried away on here too, but to target that women like that with just a one liner and nothing else to add to the conversation pissed me off.
I doubt if hardly any of the regulars haven’t hit ” submit” and then re- read their post five minutes later and thought that’s not quite what I meant.
O.k ,so we had a laugh at the women’s expense …fair enough, but just remember that was some 16 year olds mum who didn’t volunteer to be featured and there was no need to call her that name…
M42BC
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@#139 Doug in London
Well, Doug. I agree entirely with you, and we just did what you suggest. Now renting back our own house at a modest price because we are not yet ready to leave. But we will be soon, and going to greener (cheaper) pastures + we gamble that even in greener pastures, prices will be lower in a few years since the new rules and increased interest rates will hit everywhere.
I do have to thank Garth for this. It took a while but finally my better half saw the light.
Further to my above comment #139 about selling a house in Toronto like that 1.375 million half house, put it up for sale and follow the advice of a classic tune by the Steve Miller Band. Take the money and RUN!
Ironically, it just might be the Trumpster, a real estate developer, that pops our housing bubble and sends tens of thousands of realtors to consider early euthanasia.
Oh, say, can you see?
Great speech. America first… buy American, hire American. Aaaaaaannnd we’re boned.
BTW for those who don’t live here, GTA north has about the same appeal to rich foreigners as does north Tonawanda, NY. Don’t believe everything you read.
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#139 Doug in London on 01.20.17 at 11:09 am
What, that crummy little semi, which sold for 850 grand last year sold for 1.375 million recently? Yes, listings won’t surge because can afford to move you say. If I had an overpriced place like that selling it and cashing in that winning lottery ticket would be the first thing on my mind. Where to go? If you are ready to retire, or ready to retire sooner (not hard when you sell a house for over a million) then sell it and leave Toronto behind and go somewhere cheaper.
……………………
Sell the house in Toronto, move somewhere cheaper and retire. Those are my thoughts exactly and the bonus is getting the hell out of Toronto.
The Toronto house goes up for sale April or May, the house in the Niagara region is already purchased. I love when a plan comes together.
Trump’s two simple rules from his inauguration speech spell disaster for Canada: buy American and hire American. We’re screwed!
Watching CNN at the moment.
Opted for the Marcel Marceau version…
M42BC
Well it’s official. Trump = POTUSOA
OLEARY for Canada
Trump…
Protectionism all the way. And America is big enough to get away with it. Imports and Exports I believe are not as large a part of their economy as Canada.
Today, you would not want to be a Canadian company that relies massively on exports to the U.S.
They WILL be working to reduce imports.
They will still import lots but directionally they will work to reduce imports and to to incentivise American production.
I do not see how any free trade deal squares with Trumps goals.
How about Americans first Turn the Kennedy speech around
Ask not, what you can do for your Country
Ask what your country can do for you.
As I read someplace: Americans are a people that have a country, not the other way around.
Message from Trump, this man is serious:
“To Americans: You will never be ignored again. Your voice, your hopes and your dreams will define our American destiny. Your courage and goodness and love will forever guide us along the way.
Together we will make America strong again. We will make America wealthy again. We will make America proud again. We will make America safe again – and yes, together, WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
As an orator, he’s grade school. — Garth
Garth, there’s no such thing as the “popular vote” in the United States.
It’s a contrived concept, it has no basis in the legal, constitutional reality of the United States.
So talking about any such “popular votes” in the context of America makes little sense.
The God Emperor has taken the throne. The dawn of the Intergalactic Empire of Man has begun.
How about this? ‘She got more votes than he did.’ — Garth
#113 Smoking Man on 01.20.17 at 12:11 am
Shit . Addicited oxy folks.
Number 2 who is getting married soon had devistaing news. A kid, 18 years old. His client at the rehab center. OVER dosed. His first loss I guess.
My kid was there himself at a dark point in time in his life.
My son is crushed. He lover the kI’d.
Addicts. If you quit rember your old dose will kill you.
This is why I will never quit drinking what I drink.
_____________________________________
Sad news Smoking guy, Very sad, condolences to your son, he must be a very caring and compassionate person. Another senseless loss.
@ #14 Flopper:
I too understand what you say, where you are coming from.
I’m picking up what you are putting down, eh?
See?
M72BC
US protests on Teevee are staged…notice they never show an aerial view from the helicopter seen flying over head. Just a small group of paid people.
Paid by whom? Putin? Hillary? Soros? Tinfoilers like you? — Garth
#123 Kevin Lee on 01.20.17 at 5:53 am
When one of us buy, all of us buy.
=====================
So, when one of you sell, do all of you sell?
Not necessarily. I’ve won multiple offers not by being the highest offer but rather being the only agent to present in person in an industry where too many are inclined to just email the offer to the listing agent instead of showing up to add that 75% that gets lost in non verbal non face to face communication. It’s not always just about price.
@Pre-retiree post #145 and Penny Henny post #150:
Good move, both of you! Oh sure, prices could go even higher in the short term but why take that chance? I hope you both have a good retirement with your generous lottery winnings. It’s good to see there’s some good common sense here among we blog readers.
#138 Self Directed on 01.20.17 at 11:07 am
Italians Love Real Estate reborn?
MF
Re: #131 Penny Henny on 01.20.17 at 9:31 am
Home prices in the GTA are presently falling but only I informed Smoking Man. He thinks they’re still rising. All that matters is what the mostly Chinese cities do. The Chinese stop buying and the whole ponzi implodes. In the past it was always the northern fringe areas that went first and it moved towards the core. This time around the opposite is happening it’s moving from the core outward.
Saw the inauguration today and I have to admit, I am excited.
I am Excited for the next 8 years of Trump, and also excited to see Obama finally leave. Good riddance to him. Terrible president IMO.
Obama: Threw our allies under the bus, pandered to our enemies, huge debt, tons of illegals, tons of racial tension/riots, police dead, mid east a mess, worst “recovery” on record, rampant Liberalism, failed obamacare and finally ZIRP for too long.
I wonder how his “legacy” looks now?
I also believe a Trump administration will help the economy in the US. A strong US is good for the world and good for Canada.
All in all a great day.
MF
You may regret those words. — Garth
#EssentialComicRelief,Or… #Wang’sNewRulesFor’Self
AbuseSupervision’… #IsThatYourOrganInTheCageOfRegulation?…[Xinhua] – Discipline inspection rules published to improve self-supervision
…”BEIJING, Jan. 20 (Xinhua) — The Communist Party of China (CPC) on Friday published pilot work rules for discipline inspection organs to strengthen self-supervision…
While delivering a report on the rules, Wang Qishan, head of the CCDI, told the plenary session that the pilot rules were formulated to ensure “the power of discipline inspection organs is put into a cage of regulations.”
Inspecting and holding wrongdoers accountable — the most important power discipline authorities have — is prone to abuse, Wang noted.”…
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-01/20/c_136000413.htm
I’m looking forward to the first time the Donald (the Prez?) doesn’t get his way and says:”You’re Fired”, then gets told: You can’t fire me, I was elected!
You may regret those words. — Garth
I’m honestly optimistic.
The “hopey changey” stuff (your term) does not work. If Americans were as happy as we thought then why did they vote in Trump and not Hillary (a continuation of Obama’s policies)? How is hopey changey working out for Canada…and our .5% BOC interest rate?
MF
Fewer than half the votes cast went to Trump. The country is seriously divided, and wise people will avoid blind partisanship at this point. The stakes are considerably high. — Garth
#155 Ole Doberman on 01.20.17 at 1:17 pm
Message from Trump, this man is serious:
“To Americans: You will never be ignored again. Your voice, your hopes and your dreams will define our American destiny. Your courage and goodness and love will forever guide us along the way.
Together we will make America strong again. We will make America wealthy again. We will make America proud again. We will make America safe again – and yes, together, WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
As an orator, he’s grade school. — Garth
—————————————————–
Lol there you go again, it was his high energy speaking that drew crowds not seen since the likes of Hitler.
Point is, he’s way better than boring Hillary and Jeb Bush (low energy that guy)
Fewer than half the votes cast went to Trump. The country is seriously divided, and wise people will avoid blind partisanship at this point. The stakes are considerably high. — Garth
Popular vote is irrelevant. The electoral college ensures small states have a say and do not feel left out and leave the union.
Fair point about division though. Granted Trump does seem to be concerned about unifying the country. This idea that he is divisive is sensationalism. There is truth to some of his remarks (problems with illegal immigrants,the need for vetting refugees from terrorist havens).
I actually see him being a surprising unifying force.
MF
Worrisome for Canada. — Garth
Hollywood. Most of TV including news is pure entertainment.
Someone pointed out they used to scare us with stories of serial killers in the news. Then people’s attention spans dropped. Now the events we get only are solved the next day. Eg Sept 11 the greatest crime was all wrapped up by Sept 12th.
Every overseas event is wrapped up same day now. Oh we have his fingerprints. Etc.
CSI tv show timeframe has conditioned us.
Still waiting for that aerial footage of riots to hit CNBC…
If I want to see a turkey full of hot air in a parade , I will just watch the Macy’s Thanksgiving parade…
M42BC
#164 Tony on 01.20.17 at 3:03 pm
Re: #131 Penny Henny on 01.20.17 at 9:31 am
Home prices in the GTA are presently falling but only I informed Smoking Man. He thinks they’re still rising.
………………..
Sorry Tony, house prices still rising in GTA.
Ironic though that a Guy named Tony who lives in Toronto doesn’t think prices are going uppa, uppa, uppa.
US protests on Teevee are staged…notice they never show an aerial view from the helicopter seen flying over head. Just a small group of paid people.
Paid by whom? Putin? Hillary? Soros? Tinfoilers like you? — Garth
==========
We all know it is Soros. Just afraid to admit it.
making great again?
Houston we have a problem (flooding)
https://projects.propublica.org/houston-cypress/?utm_campaign=sprout&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=1481318063
“Three times in less than 10 years — for a home that’s not in any floodplain ”
…is now selling her house just for the lot value
Houston has seen the most urban flooding of any other area in the country in the past four decades, according to recent analysis by Brody, the Texas A&M scientist.
……………
“Talbott insists that the only solution to Houston’s flooding woes is to continue widening thousands of miles of across the region so they can carry more rainwater into the Gulf of Mexico. At a cost of $25 billion, with a current spending rate of $80 million a year, that will take 400 years, he said — and Congress has been unwilling to provide any extra funds to speed up the process. “
Garth!
Expecting a powerful anti Trump editorial from you tonight.
Go for it, the world needs it.
#123 Kevin Lee on 01.20.17 at 5:53 am
#42 toronto1 on 01.19.17 at 7:50 pm
#19 Kevin Lee
just curious as you seem to have the “inside scoop” with HAM, where was all this HAM money in 2006-2007? what about 2009-10 or even 2011-2012? Did everyone get rich and decide they want to move to Canada in the last two years?
If T2 signs on to that extradition treaty with the Chinese govt, think you could expect the opposite, a rush to sell assets before they are frozen and former and current members of the workers party look to move to another non extradition country.
***
When one of us buy, all of us buy. That’s why Vancouver went up. Then the BC government closed the doors. Now we are buying GTA north. Doors wide open, and much more to offer. GREENBELT. Best place to put down roots. So much to offer.
We are not worried about Chinese government, easy to get our money out. Canadian government needs more wealthy newcomers.
Buy GTA north while it’s still cheap. Price is going up!
—
This is what FOMO embedded in a human being looks like.
#88 wake up and smell the future on 01.19.17 at 9:38 pm
Honestly, some of the anti Toronto typing here qualifies as hate speech
New York, LA, Toronto
in order of population
that’s it
suck it up
Bain sold so much over list, no one here dares to type the sale price lest someone goes into shock and we lose a typist
—
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_by_population
Toronto is #53.
“Bulls and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.” – Anon.
(Applies to any market.)
RE: #175 Jess:
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/science/flooding-of-coast-caused-by-global-warming-has-already-begun.html?_r=0
“It’s as if the country was being attacked along every border, simultaneously,” said Andrea Dutton, a climate scientist at the University of Florida and one of the world’s leading experts on rising seas. “It’s a slow, gradual attack, but it threatens the safety and security of the United States.”
Only in the USA could global warming be viewed as a military problem…..