Ready or not

Preferred shares scored in the last twelve months. As forecast. For example, the exchange-traded fund called CPD gained 21% since the lows of January past, beating every real estate market. Plus it came with a 5% dividend yielding cash flow. (Did your house do that?) And a dividend tax credit. The only things missing were a pony and a tummy rub.

Preferreds have rebounded because bonds have declined and yields swollen. Looks like there’s more to come, three days before the Inflation President ascends his golden throne. Protectionist, expansionary and pro-business, Trump’s expected to slice corporate regs, slash business tax rates, skew trade deals and measure his success not in social justice but GDP. Prices, profits and wages go up. Markets, too. And rates. Get ready.

On Wednesday the Bank of Canada reacts to this. No, the cost of money won’t change here (that comes later) but we should get a read on how our central bank will respond in Trumpian times. Recall that our bank rate is now an in-the-ditch 0.5%. It can’t stay there. It will not be cut. This is it, kids. Ze bottom.

The Canadian economy has been doing better lately, as the following chart of our trade shows – the first weensy little surplus since way back in 2014. Plus the latest labour stats were great. And Justin Bieber has just traded his man bun for bangs. So it’s all good. We’re on the path.

The question for bank governor Steve Poloz is how much risk Trump poses. Obviously whacking Canadian cars with a 35% border tax would be a disaster, or imposing the Border Adjustment Tax that we referenced here the other day. Or telling US oil producers to frack their little hearts out in the name of jobs and US energy independence. Or cutting American corporate taxes to a level well below ours, sucking off investment capital. Or ripping up NAFTA. Time will tell. Let’s see what the guy says in the morning.

So why are swaps trading showing a 33% chance that Canadian interest rates will actually rise this year?

Part of the answer comes from what consumers have been up to – driving residential real estate prices higher and swallowing unheard-of amounts of debt in doing so. Higher rates would target that activity, especially combined with things like Ottawa’s tough new mortgage regs of last October, and CMHC’s third insurance premium hike in four years, announced this week.

Meanwhile one of the world’s biggest money managers, Vanguard, says categorically that our central bank will pull the trigger later this year, upping its key rate by a quarter point – which would be a 50% increase from the present level.

Says Vanguard’s chief economist: “Our contention has been and remains that the U.S. economy and the Canadian economy would remain resilient, even in the face of the ferocious commodity sell-off and even with the froth in the housing market. I think the recent data toward the end of 2016 only bore that out. I think it’s appropriate to have modestly higher interest rates.”

At the same time, US rates are set to increase (Vanguard adds) in both March and June, with Poloz popping some time later. Moody’s Economics agrees – a quarter point increase in Canada in the autumn – while Deutche Bank says the cost of money in Canada will be higher in the last 90 days of 2017.

It’s a big deal. Our bank’s last two moves (in 2015) were down. Rates have been crushed for the past eight years – long enough that a whole crop of Millennial housebuyers can’t even remember when a mortgage cost 4%. Just look at the comments on this site every time anyone warns that interest can go up. They’re not buying it – understandably, given nobody wants to reflect on their own financial vivisection.

There it is. Friday. Wave normal goodbye.

130 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 01.17.17 at 5:45 pm

I’m having a Goldgasm this week. In and out – this trend trading. Cash is King.

#2 go trump go on 01.17.17 at 5:53 pm

can’t wait

#3 Rick Fast on 01.17.17 at 5:53 pm

GTA housing will go down by 30% once interest rates begin to rise. The fuel will be taken out and screams will be heard.

#4 first on 01.17.17 at 6:23 pm

sale price of Bain? surely someone here has an agent

ha ha

maybe not

#5 Scott on 01.17.17 at 6:25 pm

Canadians are now so broke, 1 in 10 of their kids are selling sex for tuition money.

https://betterdwelling.com/1-in-10-canadian-students-are-seeking-sugar-daddies-to-help-pay-the-bills/

#6 Scott on 01.17.17 at 6:25 pm

@ #1 TurnerNation on 01.17.17 at 5:45 pm

Things are scary when gold comes into play again.

#7 InvestorsFriend on 01.17.17 at 6:42 pm

Mortgage Arrears – No Real Increases Yet

The latest 90 day mortgage delinquencies were posted yesterday. This for October.

http://www.cba.ca/Assets/CBA/Files/Article%20Category/PDF/stat_mortgage_db050_en.pdf

Two years or more into low oil prices and arrears are still low in Alberta at 0.44% (though up somewhat from the lows).

Overall in Canada despite the bloated mortgage debt people seem to manage to make the payments.

Either the banks are hiding the delinquencies or they truly are this low.

The banks can sort of hide delinquencies by allowing people to skip payments and that sort of thing. It is happening.

In addition some people without jobs are using lines of credit to pay mortgages. It happens. Banks may be unaware of the job loss. Read the fine print on that line of credit, this may be fraud.

Eventually and especially if house prices decline we should see higher delinquencies. As long as house prices stay high and people have equity they will make every effort to pay. When the equity is gone, different story.

#8 no worries on 01.17.17 at 6:43 pm

What’s the big deal?

A balanced portfolio makes an average 6% return under any circumstances.

Anything extra is a bonus.

So much worry for nothing.

#9 zee on 01.17.17 at 6:47 pm

Garth, there are more saying that BoC could deliver a rate cut this year than a rate hike.

And we have all seen that 1-2 weak data points and a rate cut will come here.

Incorrect. The consensus of economists is for no cut. — Garth

#10 Suede on 01.17.17 at 6:48 pm

oh mon dieu,

Welcome to the Twitter Presidency.

The people will have unfiltered access to the President, until Jack Dorsey shuts him down.

Jack Dorsey = most powerful man on the planet right now

#11 mark on 01.17.17 at 6:48 pm

The fact is odds makers in this world are giving a 20 percent chance trump will never finish his term.
We all know what happened to kennedy when he bucked the CIA and threatened there boys club.

#12 Smoking Man on 01.17.17 at 6:51 pm

There it is. Friday. Wave normal goodbye.-Garth.

Normal is boaring

#13 Blaine Cameron on 01.17.17 at 6:55 pm

First from below!

#14 RentYVR on 01.17.17 at 7:04 pm

Sorry Garth, but the next directional move by the Boc is down. You hear it here first.

#15 Figmund Sreud on 01.17.17 at 7:08 pm

There it is. Friday. Wave normal goodbye.
_________

Ah, … yes! Normal. There are times when normal is nothing but pain, and to escape that pain the mind must leave normal behind. [ … as if everything was – still is, ’till Friday – perfectly hunky-dory and normal here in Denial Land!]

Anyway, … if you perpetually are trying to preserve normal, you will never know how amazing abnormal can be. Just sayin’, …

F.S. – Comox, BC.

#16 nonsense on 01.17.17 at 7:16 pm

First !!!!

#17 earlybird on 01.17.17 at 7:20 pm

Good riddance normal…Great post!

#18 Gainsaywhodare on 01.17.17 at 7:22 pm

Asparagus at the grocery store is $7/lb today. Yowzer!

#19 Jimmy on 01.17.17 at 7:26 pm

Remember Monty Python’s Argument Clinic? Funny stuff.
All you young whippersnappers might want to check it out.

#20 the other white meat(pork) on 01.17.17 at 7:34 pm

CPD is down 15.79% over the last 3 years, how many houses did that?

Now add in the dividend. — Garth

#21 AK on 01.17.17 at 7:35 pm

“Prices, profits and wages go up. Markets, too. And rates. Get ready.”
——————————————————————
Spot on. As Gary Shilling says, a Bull Market never dies due to old age.

#22 For those about to flop... on 01.17.17 at 7:38 pm

Pink Snow Alert in Vancouver.

Bdy Skrtn drew my attention to this one last week and it has snowballed downhill since then.

We joked about it being a little bit of light pink snow but now things are more dire.

I don’t know how you could surmise any other conclusion that they were in trouble from the day they bought the house.

They bought it for 1.6 million at the peak in May and after trying it on for 1.56m to get most of their money back,they lowered it again to 1.499m today with a new MLS number as to not tip me off.

But I found you…

M42BC

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMVlVSw==

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2273-graveley-street

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17688872/2273-GRAVELEY-STREET-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V5L3C1

#23 Last of the boomers on 01.17.17 at 7:40 pm

Why would there be “the ferocious commodity sell-off”. Please enlighten me?

#24 Victor V on 01.17.17 at 7:41 pm

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/economy/rate-hike-likely-a-2018-story-as-analysts-expect-bank-of-canada-to-hold-benchmark-interest-rate&pubdate=2017-01-17

According to Bloomberg, 19 out of 22 economists and analysts predict the Bank of Canada will keep it

As stated. No change on Wednesday. — Garth

#25 New American jobs on 01.17.17 at 7:43 pm

There is an other sure sign that the Fed will raise the interest rate, due to higher than expected labor demand.

https://www.demandprotest.com/

As a Demand Protest operative you will receive a monthly retainer of $2,500 on top of our standard per-event pay of $50/hr, as long as you participate in at least 6 events a year. We are extremely flexible and can work with almost any existing work schedule. Full-time operatives receive health, vision and dental insurance for families, flexible vacations, and paid trainings. Travel expenses are always paid.

http://tulsa.backpage.com/MiscJobs/get-paid-fighting-against-trump/12627241

#26 nutty squirrel on 01.17.17 at 7:53 pm

If the US dollar is going up (not today) vs CDN – what would be a better buy?

VUN.TO or VUS.TO

#27 Scott on 01.17.17 at 7:57 pm

#7 InvestorsFriend on 01.17.17 at 6:42 pm

Defaults are always low in Canada, with the exception of Alberta. The reason being they make you default on everything but your home first.

#28 Polls R Phake on 01.17.17 at 7:58 pm

DELETED

#29 HoweStreet.com on 01.17.17 at 8:17 pm

Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
Deceptive Six Month Lag in Reported Canadian Real Estate Stats.
http://www.howestreet.com/2017/01/17/deceptive-six-month-lag-in-reported-real-estate-stats/

#30 arfmoocat on 01.17.17 at 8:21 pm

How much money has flowed out of Alberta to Ottawa? A lot

http://edmontonjournal.com/opinion/columnists/gary-lamphier-how-much-money-has-flowed-out-of-alberta-to-ottawa-a-lot

#31 ddt on 01.17.17 at 8:25 pm

https://jugglingdynamite.com/2017/01/17/fake-news-and-false-prophetsprofits/

#32 Capt. Serious on 01.17.17 at 8:32 pm

A balanced portfolio makes an average 6% return under any circumstances.

Well, not 1929 – 1932. A good test of your mettle is to run your portfolio through that god awful train wreck and see how you’d feel. Crap happens. October 1987 happens.

Neither scenario could reoccur. Market reforms prevent it. — Garth

#33 SimplyPut7 on 01.17.17 at 8:34 pm

So what you are saying is I should not be in a hurry to buy another all white and grey marble, overpriced house in the GTA, because rates will be going up soon.

Ok, got it.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17686812/98-ENNISCLARE-Drive-West-Oakville-Ontario-L6J4N2-Eastlake

#34 joblo on 01.17.17 at 8:34 pm

5 Scott on 01.17.17 at 6:25 pm
“Canadians are now so broke, 1 in 10 of their kids are selling sex for tuition money.”

Reminds me of an old joke once told:

A man and his wife were sitting at the table going over their bills when the man was shocked to discover that they barely made enough to cover them all.
All night long they tried to think of a way to come up with the extra money each month and the only solution they could come up with was that his wife should sell herself for the extra money.
She agreed.
Her first night she came the husband asked her how much she made. She said “$10.50.”
Her husband was pissed, “Who was the cheap bugger that only paid you 50 cents?”
She replied, “all of them.”

Remember buy USA made when you can!

#35 A belieber on 01.17.17 at 8:39 pm

And Justin Bieber has just traded his man bun for bangs. So it’s all good. We’re on the path.
…………..

Love the new hair! It’s the perfect combo of a younger Justin and the new mature Justin. All you old, bald guys are just jealous.

But low rates are here to stay because Yellen only wishes she could set a trend like Bieber. Bangs are in, rate hikes are out.

#36 Tony on 01.17.17 at 8:46 pm

instead of raising rates this year, our central bank will not move in an attempt to further devalue the CAD while hoping the housing bubble will not burst. i see the CAD going back all the way to where it was 16 years ago, around 1.55 to the USD. only then will our rates have to go up. yes, inflation will get worse meanwhile, but between that and a bubble burst the inflation is the least of our problems. 2018 will be the year housing prices will really start diving.

#37 arfmoocat on 01.17.17 at 8:46 pm

stuck on 26 comments

#38 Kevin Li on 01.17.17 at 8:50 pm

So many locals are overly pessimistic.

Immigration is rising under Justin.

Loonie is going to go lower.

People want to live in a stable place.

Real estate in certain areas is going to continue to boom.

“Certain areas”.

Key thing is to buy in a place newcomers to Canada want to live, work, and bring up their kids.

That’s the GTA (north).

Own anywhere else? I wouldn’t buy.

GTA is becoming it’s own “city-state” where the negatives infecting the rest of the country don’t apply nearly as much.

Talk to wealthy newcomers for yourself: People consider Toronto only average, while GTA has the GREENBELT which does make it a very nice place to live.

Area between the 400 and 404 are where it’s at. Heck, now even Barrie is starting to boom.

#39 common sense on 01.17.17 at 8:53 pm

When did economists make the call on rate cuts or raises?

Remember last year when Poloz shocked everyone with the drop!

#40 Doug t on 01.17.17 at 9:15 pm

Trump as prez is the proverbial “jumping the shark” moment for the mighty USSA. It’s all downhill from here folks – all empires burn out. Problem is they won’t go quietly as they never do – war is always the last stand.

#41 Dominoes Lining Up on 01.17.17 at 9:17 pm

#7 InvestorsFriend

Mortgage Arrears – No Real Increases Yet

——————————————————–

Look a little closer. There is a canary in that coalmine already.

In the GTA, including Mississauga, Brampton and Toronto, something is happening.

All three areas have had emergency consultations in the last six weeks about property tax delinquencies. Not much made public yet, but just wait.

The number of property tax accounts gone to collections in Toronto alone is on track to increasing by about 50% year over year. Two thirds of these are from condos, and more than half of those from owners of more than one property.

In most cities, it takes about 2 years or more of delinquency to force a tax sale. In the GTA, they are being told to prepare for a a rush of these by late 2017 and early 2018

This is spreading quickly, unseen by most of us. Mortgage delinquencies are next.

#42 Smoking Man on 01.17.17 at 9:26 pm

Back around mid Dec I called batman on Canadian bond yields.

Bet Accordingly.

That Def drunk and blind kid sure plays mean crystal ball. Dada-da-da-dnaaa

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

#43 Pompus assio on 01.17.17 at 9:27 pm

#7 InvestorsFriend on 01.17.17 at 6:42 pm

Mortgage Arrears – No Real Increases Yet

The latest 90 day mortgage delinquencies were posted yesterday. This for October.

http://www.cba.ca/Assets/CBA/Files/Article%20Category/PDF/stat_mortgage_db050_en.pdf

Two years or more into low oil prices and arrears are still low in Alberta at 0.44% (though up somewhat from the lows).

*******************

We just hired a guy from Calgary – Oil and gas industry. He said his severance was 3 weeks per year (3 years) in head office and others got up to 18 months with the average salary in the 100’s. He said people were beginning to worry a bit more these days – he spent Christmas out there.

#44 John on 01.17.17 at 9:40 pm

So what happens if China devalues the Yuan against the US buck, for all the usual reasons? Remember, August 11, 2015, when out of left field they did just that… remember in January 2015 when the Swiss decoupled from the Euro…. suddenly… let’s not think we’re in the driver’s seat or even that Trump is… just when we do…. speed bump..

#45 Paul on 01.17.17 at 9:58 pm

#7
People always pay the mortgage but the rest of the bills,
Hydro,water,taxes, credit cards, Heloc’s, always wait.
Held mortgages for years rarely went into arreares
Many times received a insurence cancellation notice then a call they were selling the house to pay accumulated debt. More often than not splitting up as well,painfully

#46 common sense on 01.17.17 at 10:01 pm

bump

#47 Victor V on 01.17.17 at 10:04 pm

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/mortgage-insurance-premiums-on-the-rise-at-cmhc-now-as-high-as-4-5-of-value&pubdate=2017-01-17

With financial institutions paying that fee, Rob McLister, founder of ratespy.com, says it is inevitable that Canadians with those larger down payments will actually see mortgage rate increases passed on by the banks while Canadians with small down payments won’t.

“This is absurd. There is no statistical evidence about why (the hikes) are justified,” he said, adding the CMHC is on an advisory panel at OSFI and would have had input into the new capital requirements that have led to the fee hikes. “What CMHC is not telling people is that its premium hikes are going to jack up rates (again) on mortgages with 20 per cent to 35 per cent equity. I’m seeing up to 50 basis point spreads between lower risk low-ratio mortgages and higher risk five per cent down mortgages. The whole mortgage market has been turned on its head.”

#48 Capt. Serious on 01.17.17 at 10:19 pm

A balanced portfolio makes an average 6% return under any circumstances.

Well, not 1929 – 1932. A good test of your mettle is to run your portfolio through that god awful train wreck and see how you’d feel. Crap happens. October 1987 happens.

Neither scenario could reoccur. Market reforms prevent it. — Garth

Not really my point. I know those events will not happen again. One does not get high returns without risk, so if one assumes reasonably high returns, some ugly thing is out there that will happen during one’s investing life that will test one’s conviction to stick to the plan.

#49 Keep calm and blame Russia on 01.17.17 at 10:36 pm

Garth I thought you were a Conservative? Because you sure sound like a Liberal the way you beat up on President Trump constantly, I wish we had a leader like him instead of the Ponce TruDough the feminist.

Consequences matter, not the leaders who cause them. Nothing to do with ideology. — Garth

#50 45north on 01.17.17 at 10:55 pm

HowStreet.com: Ross Kay: BC is going through a devastating loss in the value of its real estate.

That’s not an exact quote but that’s what he’s saying.

#51 Smoking Man on 01.17.17 at 11:08 pm

What I love about Johneey boy. He’s an idiot.

No concept of my relationships with, you know little green men. Not green, but perfect copies of what we should be.

No idea why they picked me or this pathetic blog for disclosure.

But they are real. Especilallly in my mind. That’s who the buggers do it to. Esp I’m thinking. I’m a drunk, no job. Yet I call the markets perfectly.

I call everything.

That’s a responsiblity I never signed up for.

Why me. I would rather spend my time trying to figure out how butter fly wings work.

Johnny Boy.

I’m thinking your james , a man hating lesbonic spokes person for the lonny tune community.

I’m intitled to be worg once in a while.

Johnny Boy , I look forward to your rebuttal.

#52 yorkville renter on 01.17.17 at 11:37 pm

#41 – where are you seeing info about tax deliquencies increasing? The google shows nothing…. fake news?

#53 For those about to flop... on 01.17.17 at 11:39 pm

As a follow up to my post at #22

They dumped the price and then proudly state…

‘Sold over asking’

Works every time…

M42BC

http://michellecomens.com/mylistings.html/details-56706603

#54 wallflower on 01.17.17 at 11:45 pm

#18 Gainsaywhodare on 01.17.17 at 7:22 pm
Asparagus at the grocery store is $7/lb today. Yowzer!
= = = = =
0.99c pound here in Florida this week – bought a bundle

#55 Dan on 01.17.17 at 11:49 pm

How much, as a percentage, should I be keeping in USD in my investments?

#56 Keith on 01.17.17 at 11:52 pm

All good in the hood.

http://www.westerninvestor.com/news/opinion/top-real-estate-agent-foreign-buyer-tax-won-t-stop-chinese-investment-1.3220509

#57 Smoking Man on 01.17.17 at 11:53 pm

Good night

#58 Nonplused on 01.18.17 at 12:03 am

With Trump’s inauguration on Friday, this is definitely the wrong week to quit smoking. Or travel to the East Coast.

There have been even closer elections before, Gore-Bush comes to mind settled in a courtroom in Florida, but never before have the left acted like such a bunch of babies when they lost. Never has anybody.

Oh and PS we survived 8 years of Bush Junior, anyone remember that? Trump can’t be any worse. This whole thing has been way over-hyped. But I still expect there will be a lot of rubber bullets and maybe some real ones flying on Friday.

#59 Tom from Mississauga on 01.18.17 at 12:09 am

Hi Garth
Furthermore on your post yesterday on Calgary, Boardwalk REIT is currently offering 3 months free rent on a 12 lease at 36 of their buildings across the city. What a price war!

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.18.17 at 12:24 am

I’m all for Trump bringing home jobs to America.
But now he’s pissed off Merkel.
Does Trump really believe that the Americans can build cars even remotely close to a BMW.
Sadly, he believes (and so do most North American consumers) that Chinese goods equal the quality of German exports.
The EU has about 600 million people and China has 1.3 billion.
Kinda makes the USA look small.
If Trump takes them on, we may see the end of America as we know it.

#61 Wallflower on 01.18.17 at 12:29 am

#38 Kevin Li on 01.17.17 at 8:50 pm
Heck, now even Barrie is starting to boom.
= = = = =
You are ill informed.
(That is the courteous way to label you.)
I close in May on a new build with buy date spring 2015. Huge upside based on current list prices for my $5500 deposit. The big boom in Barrie is in the rear view mirror.
Newbies, beware of comments like Kevin’s.

#62 mark on 01.18.17 at 2:08 am

Never thought I’d see this posted by a mortgage broker on facebook…

Back in December it was announced that the BC Government would now provide first time homebuyers with a loan to help with their down payment. This is a loan that would be registered on the title of your home as a second mortgage. You do have to repay this loan over 25 years and the first 5 years are interest free. But to do this, the government charges you a fee to cover their legal costs of $560 and the mortgage loan insurers (CMHC, Genworth & Canada Guaranty) will also increase your insurance cost because it’s a borrowed down payment. Currently the cost of the insurance for a borrowed down payment is 3.85% of your mortgage amount. However today CMHC has announced they will be increasing their premiums (which the other insurers usually do follow). Now if you use this program you will pay 4.5% of your mortgage amount for the insurance. This is beyond ridiculous. The government states they are trying to help first-time home buyers when now in fact these first-time home buyers will owe more on their homes then they are worth.
Here’s an example:
Purchase price: $200,000
Down payment required: $10,000 ($5000 from savings and borrow $5000 from government program)
New CMHC premium cost: $8550
Total mortgage from your lender or bank: $198,550 but you also have a second mortgage of $5560 (this includes the fee stated above) registered by the government. You owe $204,110 on a home that is only worth $200,000. If life changes or you need to sell within the first few years you are going to be paying money out of pocket to sell your home.

#63 Self Directed on 01.18.17 at 2:11 am

#20 the other white meat(pork) on 01.17.17 at 7:34 pm

CPD is down 15.79% over the last 3 years, how many houses did that?

Now add in the dividend. — Garth
………………………………………………….
LOL! C’mon, White Meat! I’m surprised you forgot about the 5% yield.

#64 Hoser on 01.18.17 at 8:47 am

>>Jack Dorsey = most powerful man on the planet right now

Hardly. If Twitter bans Trump he just goes to another platform (like Gab) and takes a few million followers with him.

#65 comiq on 01.18.17 at 9:12 am

Pleaseeeeeeeeeeeee post this picture next time…. I beg you….

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/justin-trudeau-new-brunswick-tour-1.3937640

#66 Ronaldo on 01.18.17 at 9:23 am

#62 Mark

”If life changes or you need to sell within the first few years you are going to be paying money out of pocket to sell your home.”
———————————————–
Yes Mark but don’t forget that prices always go up so no problem. At least that’s what our Premier thinks. Whose going to be the winner here?

#67 Tom from Mississauga on 01.18.17 at 9:40 am

Boardwalk REIT in Edmonton is now offering a 3br townhouses for as little as $749 a month with $299 security deposit. The deals keep coming!

#68 Frances on 01.18.17 at 9:42 am

Uh, CDP also lost 22% in the last five years…
http://quote.morningstar.ca/quicktakes/etf/etf_ca.aspx?t=FOUSA06C3R&region=can&culture=en-CA

#69 Tom from Mississauga on 01.18.17 at 9:46 am

Boardwalk has in Grande Prairie 2br townhouse for $600 a month and the 1st month is free. What a disaster for anyone having to compete!

#70 Tom from Mississauga on 01.18.17 at 9:50 am

Red Deer $850 a month for a 2br townhouse, 3 months free rent on a 12 month lease.

#71 Grey Dog on 01.18.17 at 10:51 am

Poloz: Canadian economy will take a “material” hit from Trump.

Garth: What exactly does “material” hit mean?

Thank you.

#72 rainclouds on 01.18.17 at 11:00 am

#56 Keith All good in the hood

Always great to view high quality “journalism” such as the western investor. Try Harder House Sales Person

About: Western Investor is the trusted source for commercial real estate, franchising and business opportunities in Western Canada. Industry professionals and private investors from across BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba have been relying on Western Investor for all the latest news and the most comprehensive listings for over 30 years.

#73 Johnny boy on 01.18.17 at 11:09 am

#51 Smoking Man on 01.17.17 at 11:08 pm
What I love about Johneey boy. He’s an idiot.
No concept of my relationships with, you know little green men. Not green, but perfect copies of what we should be.
No idea why they picked me or this pathetic blog for disclosure.
But they are real. Especilallly in my mind. That’s who the buggers do it to. Esp I’m thinking. I’m a drunk, no job. Yet I call the markets perfectly.
I call everything.
That’s a responsiblity I never signed up for.
Why me. I would rather spend my time trying to figure out how butter fly wings work.
Johnny Boy.
I’m thinking your james , a man hating lesbonic spokes person for the lonny tune community.
I’m intitled to be worg once in a while.
Johnny Boy , I look forward to your rebuttal.
____________________________________
Seven spelling and grammar mistakes in one short paragraph and I’m the idiot. You are funny! Not worthy of a rebuttal you niais.

#74 Johnny boy on 01.18.17 at 11:14 am

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.18.17 at 12:24 am

I’m all for Trump bringing home jobs to America.
But now he’s pissed off Merkel.
Does Trump really believe that the Americans can build cars even remotely close to a BMW.
Sadly, he believes (and so do most North American consumers) that Chinese goods equal the quality of German exports.
The EU has about 600 million people and China has 1.3 billion.
Kinda makes the USA look small.
If Trump takes them on, we may see the end of America as we know it.
_____________________________________
But he is going to make Америка great again. China will definitely crush the USA re trade wars. USA has much more to lose than China. They are open to trade in-spite of their own protectionist agenda.

#75 Barb on 01.18.17 at 11:25 am

Trump alienating the country’s allies will likely lead to unintended consequences.

#76 Johnny boy on 01.18.17 at 11:27 am

Jesus, it is serious. My old boss is jumping into the fire now. He was a smart man back in the mid 90s when I worked for his software company in Mississauga. Glad I jumped ships before he unloaded it, the new boss Michael Perikwas a real tough guy. Will have to watch this over the next year.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/01/18/kevin-oleary-announces-run-for-conservative-leadership.html

#77 Johnny boy on 01.18.17 at 11:31 am

Perhaps Wang Jianlin should wait until after Friday to make an offer?

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-ct-viacom-paramount-dalian-wanda-20160713-snap-story.html

#78 paul on 01.18.17 at 11:32 am

Here is our inclusive leader. I wonder what language he will speak at his fund raisers.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/trudeau-town-hall-sherbrooke-quebec-public-questions-1.3940058?cmp=rss

#79 Henry Morgan on 01.18.17 at 12:00 pm

Ponzius Pilatus – BMWs are made in Mexico.

#80 Still employed in AB on 01.18.17 at 12:23 pm

@Tom Thanks for keeping an eye on the rental market for us Albertans. I rent in a condo building with its own postal code and am now receiving bulk mailings for apartments. The fine print can be sneaky on some ads. For example the rent could be 1135/month. So they give you 3 months free. 1135×9 = 10215/12 means an average monthly rental of 851.25. My old apartment has been vacant November 1 and now some of my old neighbours are moving to nicer digs as well. I imagine the condo fees in the building I’m renting will go up with the carbon tax boosting the natural gas bill but I really doubt my rent will go up in November.

PS going to take the girlfriend to the keg with my #Notley bucks

#81 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 01.18.17 at 12:37 pm

Rents falling, not just in Alberta, but in “hot-spots” like Kitchener/Waterloo

Rent 2 bdr condo, $1600/mo, 3 months free rent on a 12 month lease.

Rent 2 bdr condo, $1250/mo, 2 months free rent on a 12 month lease.

http://www.timbercreekcommunities.com/find-your-home/waterloo/apartment_rentals/avenue-apartments

Another Rent 2 bdr condo, $1250/mo, 2 months free rent on a 12 month lease.

http://www.timbercreekcommunities.com/find-your-home/waterloo/apartment_rentals/albert-apartments

Another Rent 2 bdr condo, $1400/mo, 3 months free rent on a 12 month lease.

http://www.kijiji.ca/v-2-bedroom-apartments-condos/kitchener-waterloo/special-offer-3-free-months-75-00-off-asking-call-us-today/1220524994

Renters save smartly for the housing market correction.

#82 NAFTA or Bust! on 01.18.17 at 12:47 pm

Let the fun begin!… This is gonna be a wild ride.
T2 already signed up Mulroney

“Mr. Ross, who has an estimated fortune of $2.9-billion (U.S.), is a close personal friend of Mr. Mulroney and Mr. Trump. The private-equity titan attended the 2011 wedding of Mr. Mulroney’s son Nicholas in Toronto, and their families meet regularly during the winter in Palm Beach, Fla.”

“Canadian officials say the nominee for commerce secretary has indicated a formal-notification letter to open negotiations on NAFTA will be sent to Canada and Mexico within days of Friday’s presidential inauguration.”

#83 For those about to flop... on 01.18.17 at 12:51 pm

A little present for the bored daytime crew…

M42BC

https://howmuch.net

#84 Johhny Boy on 01.18.17 at 12:54 pm

There it is. Friday. Wave normal goodbye.
_________________________________

Good thing there is the internet to practice my wave.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJQRTQJL7jQ

#85 AGuyInVancouver on 01.18.17 at 1:03 pm

#49 Keep calm and blame Russia: Trump’s conservative credentials are shaky at best, flaky at worst. You get different answers and positions depending on who he last talked to, and how many McNuggets he just ate. A very thin patina of conservatism is no excuse to praise the least suited and experienced person elected to the highest office in the USA in at least a century.

#86 Philski on 01.18.17 at 1:12 pm

Great Garth! Yes I bought a couple $100k at $10.60!
I have some left but sold some off for a commercial RE purchase…not in Van their on crack there. My C-RE has a great yield too. So thanks for that! 2 thumbs up.

#87 Ronaldo on 01.18.17 at 1:21 pm

#69 Tom from Mississauga on 01.18.17 at 9:50 am

Red Deer $850 a month for a 2br townhouse, 3 months free rent on a 12 month lease.
————————————————————–
Can’t be many like that. Better grab it quick. Below is a better look at what the market is all about.

http://www.kijiji.ca/b-apartments-condos/red-deer/red-deer/k0c37l1700136

#88 Toronto_CA on 01.18.17 at 1:24 pm

Well there goes your rate hike. Thanks Poloz, sink that Loonie.

#89 so shocked on 01.18.17 at 1:31 pm

Garth’s eyeballs popped out of his head and rolled around on the floor when he read the Globe headline:
“Poloz says rate cut ‘on the table’ amid concern over Trump policies”
We need a billionaire to counter a billionaire: GO O’LEARY! Let’s get an early election demand going and let Trudeau go back to school before Trump tanks our economy completely.

#90 Doug in London on 01.18.17 at 1:31 pm

Yes, preferred share ETFs (CPD, XPF, ZPR) that have been on sale until recently. I lost count of how many times someone here in the steerage section was bellyaching about how much they dropped in value during that period. I correctly figured all that complaining was a sure sign that those ETFs were ON SALE and it was time to buy more of them. So now, not only did I get to sit back, park my ass in the comfy cozy chair, relax, and watch the dividends roll in, but have recently seen some capital appreciation of these ETFs.

I’ll say again what I’ve said countless times here, invest like a governor that gives the engine more fuel/air mixture when the speed drops and less when the speed goes up. How many of YOU here bought those preferred share ETFs when they were on sale?

On a different topic, the picture on this post reminds me of that Monty python skit of the character who says: Hi, I would like to buy an argument. That’s followed by: I paid already. No you didn’t. Yes I did, and so on.

#91 traderJim on 01.18.17 at 1:40 pm

Looks like Poloz the uber dove has poured cold water on the idea of any rate increases. No surprise there (to me anyway).

Still sticking to my short loonie position, although I covered some more today after the big drop, in the perhaps foolish hope to sell it out again a bit higher in the next week or so.

With Trump tweeting and oil prices all over the map it’s anyone’s guess where the loonie goes next.

But longer term still looks weak to me. But I’m paying closer attention and trying to keep an open mind about it.

#92 Eks dee Sipal on 01.18.17 at 1:45 pm

“It’s blind-sided everybody”- Calgary Herald…. uh nope, not everybody. Trump is played by actor Ron Masak, btw. Taking full and acute advantage of your ideological vices down there in Alberta.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/blindsided+everybody+border+could+shut+canadian/12726320/story.html

#93 Huh on 01.18.17 at 1:54 pm

Pffff…6% returns is peanuts… I know people who make 30%-40% per year on average with less risk than a diversified portfolio in ETF etc. (crumbs relatively speaking)

I think that’s how the rich are really getting richer but most of us don’t know about it.

#94 Eks dee Sipal on 01.18.17 at 2:03 pm

Land Rover and Jaguar are owned by Tata Corporation of India, not Ford, as someone posted here. They took a losing business and made it profitable, so far… Most auto parts regardless of the brand are made by OEM suppliers like Magna, and primarily in China. Assembled in Mexico for decades now. BMW drivetrains and transmissions are sourced from American technology likely from GM’s vaults.

Mitsubishi is more American than Japanese, as the secret owners reside in the US and really push their brand in the media, even though the product is shoddy. 10-year warranty? Ha. Try it if you want.

Chrysler is not even American-owned anymore, it is Fiat’s now. Mercedes-Benz group was sold off long ago because it was profit-less and Volkswagen group now own such albatrosses as Bugatti and other high-end stuff that you see commercials for in movies and TV shows unbeknownst to you and are probably the largest in sales volume globally overall, with the Chinese stuff nipping at their heels.

CONSOLIDATION is already history. Growth by acquisition and lowering labour costs. These companies can afford to pay a little more border tax, and they will. Consumers will suffer for a while until the electrics take over and wages go up to match, or down to match if sticker prices come to reflect actual wage slavery where the products are made. In any case, wage inflation is on the way, right after the upcoming RESET with asset price deflation. I’m ready.

#95 traderJim on 01.18.17 at 2:09 pm

I find it hard to understand why some people get so angry and hysterical over politics.

I mean, some people who love ex-bouncer and part time drama teacher JT seem to think that a multi-billionaire septuagenarian who has been dealing with politicians for decades is ‘inexperienced’.

But I don’t get upset or angry over this kind of irrationality.

Personally, I see absolutely no difference in Canada between the Harper years and now. Politicians are all slight variations on a theme, and none will ever do anything meaningful that will actually impact your life or mine. (Unless of course you live under a true socialist, like Maduro)

Trump’s an extreme case, as he is actually entertaining and he might miraculously do something different, but I don’t think even he can break the establishment wall down, even if he builds the other wall.

But my days would be exactly the same if Hillary had won. I would have forgotten about it within a week.

Meanwhile, ‘progressives’ in the USA are setting themselves on fire (literally) and threatening to cut off their genitals if Trump is inaugurated.

Disturbed would be an understatement. I guess these people don’t have much of a life.

And then there’s the folks who think that the USA, with a $350 billion annual trade deficit with China can somehow LOSE by standing up to them. lol

Lot of crazy people out there, best to just ignore them and keep on enjoying life, no matter which idiot is pretending to run the show.

#96 jay on 01.18.17 at 2:21 pm

Canadian peso might be back in circulation again . http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement/article33653627/

#97 Victor V on 01.18.17 at 2:30 pm

“Why not let the market be the market, including the volatility in pricing?” Kevin O’Leary said on Canada’s hot housing markets.

http://www.bnn.ca/bank-mergers-housing-and-marijuana-kevin-o-leary-on-his-leadership-bid-1.652967

#98 Polls R Phake on 01.18.17 at 2:33 pm

Two more days until phake news starts to get squished.

#99 Johnny boy on 01.18.17 at 2:41 pm

#77 paul on 01.18.17 at 11:32 am
Here is our inclusive leader. I wonder what language he will speak at his fund raisers.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/trudeau-town-hall-sherbrooke-quebec-public-questions-1.3940058?cmp=rss
________________________________________

If the fundraisers are full of rich people then he will speak in $$$.

#100 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.18.17 at 2:48 pm

#78 Henry Morgan on 01.18.17 at 12:00 pm
Ponzius Pilatus – BMWs are made in Mexico.
—————
Not mine.
Remember, always check the labels.

#101 CJBob on 01.18.17 at 2:49 pm

Poloz says rate cuts are on the table, and Garth is wrong about interest rates rising yet again (or still depending on how you look at it).

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/stephen-poloz-says-rate-cut-remains-on-table-sends-high-flying-loonie-into-a-swoon

#102 TurnerNation on 01.18.17 at 2:53 pm

1 million for a grey concrete box in bleak Kommunist Kanada.

Literally a box.

http://www.blogto.com/city/2017/01/house-week-3265-howland-avenue-toronto/

#103 Shortymac on 01.18.17 at 2:55 pm

Stories of cheaper rentals just around the corner in the GTA keep me going, my husband and I want to grow our family in the next year or two and our current place is cramped already and paying 2,500/mon plus utilities to rent a house is a bit out of our price range.

I would kill for a 800/mon townhouse. We’re currently renting the top floor of a house (all inclusive with roommates) for 1700/month.

#104 Polls R Phake on 01.18.17 at 2:55 pm

And here in Vancouver the O’Leary bashing has begun by the media. Just like Trump.

Kevin has already won the leadership race.

#105 YYC_Lurker on 01.18.17 at 2:59 pm

Did my house do what? My CPD paid nicely. My house kept the rain off my head. My rental apartments paid for their own operating costs. Why is your diversified approach so focused on equities? My art collection also appreciated roughly 10%. True diversification involves more than a portfolio of fractional corporate ownerships.

#106 robert james on 01.18.17 at 3:06 pm

#75 Johnny Boy…Kevin Oleary is bald… He does not have a Chinese dude`s hope in H*ll of winning anything..

#107 Boots on the Ground on 01.18.17 at 3:07 pm

Some of us are Deplorables squared ie dual citizens. This gets you coming and going, literally and figuratively.

Any of you dogs have any advice:
Renting in the US- myself a dual citizen, hubby is Canuck sole income earner with green card.
What would you do with an unexpected lump of money in your CAD bank account if you were just starting out trying to make your money work for you?

TFSA too messy for all the reasons Garth points out re: dual citizens. But since I don’t want to take a hit on exchange to invest stateside, whats a good option? I’ve focused like a laser on FIRE subjects, Michael Hudson, Buffett and as many blogs with diverse opins on investing as possible this past year. GF has been my main squeeze though. That being said, I still don’t have enough knowledge/courage to assemble a portfolio on my own.

Is a robo advisor like Questrade then a good option? What difference does the timing make when opening a robo advisor? Should a person do this Friday?

I’m willing to throw myself to the dogs with dumb questions if it means learning yet again, from you all.

Speaking of Monty Python: Me thinks the US of A is the “parrot in the cage”- how about some humor w/ a rerun:
https://youtu.be/aqz_4OgMi7M

“C: (yelling and hitting the cage repeatedly) ‘ELLO POLLY!!!!!

Testing! Testing! Testing! Testing! This is your nine o’clock alarm call!

(Takes parrot out of the cage and thumps its head on the counter. Throws it up in the air and watches it plummet to the floor.)

C: Now that’s what I call a dead parrot.

O: No, no…..No, ‘e’s stunned!”

#108 RentYVR on 01.18.17 at 3:18 pm

BoC says that a rate cut “remains on the table.”

Boom!

#109 Polls R Phake on 01.18.17 at 3:25 pm

#89 so shocked on 01.18.17 at 1:31 pm
Garth’s eyeballs popped out of his head and rolled around on the floor when he read the Globe headline:
“Poloz says rate cut ‘on the table’ amid concern over Trump policies”
We need a billionaire to counter a billionaire: GO O’LEARY! Let’s get an early election demand going and let Trudeau go back to school before Trump tanks our economy completely.
____________________________________________

Maybe just maybe…..the MP’s who are (supposed to) represent their constituents – but do not – will finally grow a pair in all the political parties and FORCE an early election.

We can only be so lucky.

#110 Foreign Capital in Victoria on 01.18.17 at 3:33 pm

As I told you VREU many months ago, your foreign buyer stats are so dated. You cite 2015 stats showing the constitute 0.68% of transactions, but the latest data shows they now constitute over 4% of transactions since the foreign buyers tax went into effect. That is a 7 fold increase.

And what did prices do? Hmmmm…..right, they went up 20% for 2016 after the market had been comatose for many many years.

Did they go up because of a massive economic boon? Did they go up because people finally woke up to the benefit of low interest rates? Did they go up because the new mortgage rules have no effect? Did they go up because of Vancouver refugees flooding the city from the domino effect of foreign capital buying Vancouver homes? Did they go up because average incomes went up 20%?

Why the increase? Nobody cares about declining sales if there are no commensurate decline in prices. And sales declined because there is ZERO inventory – not because we are on the cliff of a downturn.

Victoria is calling for the foreign buyers tax to be extended to the city (its only in Metro right now). At least the city is smart enough not to take a ‘wait and see’ approach for half a decade like Vancouver.

http://www.cknw.com/2017/01/18/264039/?sc_ref=twitter

Sorry, VREU – you have been priced out and will be for years now….

#111 @Kevin Li / RE expert on deck on 01.18.17 at 3:37 pm

Kevin,

Why don’t you give us an inside track to those wonderful North of GTA real estate opportunities you’re advertising?

“Build it and they will come” worked magically in the Lower Mainland and boy, did they come.

Had nothing to do with real demand and you know it. Just securing an address for the wife and kids, maybe the in-laws. The benefits to Canada are very short lived if any.

It’s not like we’re stupid or something.

#112 USDCAD on 01.18.17 at 3:42 pm

Poloz killed the CAD today. If the Fed remains as hawkish as Yellen wants it to be, then watch out for blood in the streets and utter destruction of our currency.

It’s the only way Canadian incomes, pensions and RE valuations can remain “exceptional” because it is different here….

#113 Polls R Phake on 01.18.17 at 3:58 pm

If by “wave normal goodbye” you mean phake news, phake govt, phake stats, phake employment numbers, phake economy then GREAT !!

Speaking of phake….

https://www.rt.com/usa/374146-2016-world-hottest-year/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=aplication_chrome&utm_campaign=chrome

Your posts are tedious and meaningless. I will be deleting a growing number of them. — Garth

#114 Victor V on 01.18.17 at 4:04 pm

Loonie nearly down full U.S. cent after Poloz says rate cut still ‘on the table’

https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/01/18/north-american-stock-markets-send-mixed-signals-canadian-dollar-down.html

#115 conan on 01.18.17 at 4:11 pm

Mr Bombastic has entered the race. Why not have more? Don Cherry comes to mind. He would make a good Defense Minister. Rock’em, Sock’em Peace Keeping.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPLwSaUpZC4

#116 Ace Goodheart on 01.18.17 at 4:17 pm

#105 YYC_Lurker:

“Did my house do what? My CPD paid nicely. My house kept the rain off my head. My rental apartments paid for their own operating costs. Why is your diversified approach so focused on equities? My art collection also appreciated roughly 10%. True diversification involves more than a portfolio of fractional corporate ownerships.”

That’s a really cool and interesting thing to think about. It’s kind of like the situation where you have two identical persons, with identical sums of money, who take different paths.

Person #1: Takes say a million dollars, and buys some artwork, a house with a mortgage, some classic cars, a few rental buildings with mortgages and say some antique collector hockey cards.

Person #2: Puts the whole million into market based instruments, lets say dividend paying stocks and ETFs, and manages to get an aggregate yearly distribution of 6% and an aggregate capital gain of 4%.

Person #1 continues working (they have to, they have several large mortgages and a bunch of expensive assets that they have to take care of). They consider themselves wealthy. Why not? They are a millionaire after all, a landlord, home owner, they have some pretty rare art and a cool hockey card collection. They consider that they are doing well. They haven’t got a lot of free time and the full time job is a pain, but hey, they are rich!

Person #2 retires. Why wouldn’t they? They earn $60,000 per year for doing nothing, and then can sell and redistribute assets for another $40,000 per year if they need the money. They have no expensive stuff that needs maintenance or repairs. They have no obligations. They actually have “the man” working for them, producing distributions and dividends and capital gains, while they sit around drinking beer or traveling, or doing whatever they like.

Person #2 looks poor. Outwardly, they don’t appear to be doing well. They probably rent an apartment somewhere, don’t appear to work, likely don’t have a very nice car (or a car at all) and they don’t look very busy.

Person #1 looks rich. They become a target for tax collection. Their income is taxed, as is their house and their rental buildings. People talk about taxing them some more. The rich should pay their fair share!

So which person would you want to be? We’re all different.

This blog seems to lean towards person #2 (with a different weighting but basically that is what he is saying).

A lot of people spend their lives as person #1 and then when they hit 65 they try to suddenly become person #2 (often with disastrous consequences).

Anyway it’s a fun debate.

#117 Euro observer on 01.18.17 at 4:20 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 01.17.17 at 5:45 pm

I’m having a Goldgasm this week. In and out – this trend trading. Cash is King.

——————–
Not the CAD it seems, based on the Forex action today.

#118 Euro observer on 01.18.17 at 4:37 pm

This is what the idiot said:

https://www.thestar.com/business/2017/01/18/bank-of-canada-holds-interest-rate-as-it-assesses-risks-of-trump-presidency.html

Basta,

#119 Brokerizer on 01.18.17 at 4:39 pm

Poloz seems inclined to cut. Loonie looses 1.2%. It’s as if he’s waiting for any reason to cut. So what if housing defaults start to increase? I swear to god The Man cuts rates to please everyone. Loonie goes to 0.65.

I really cannot tolerate seeing our mortgage rates go back down last they did that summer.

Do something Garth.

#120 Euro observer on 01.18.17 at 4:40 pm

Loonie nearly down full U.S. cent after Poloz says rate cut still ‘on the table’

——————————
Can someone please kick this incompetent puppet out of his office?

#121 I'm stupid on 01.18.17 at 4:48 pm

Hi Garth

What’s your opinion of Kevin O’Leary running for leadership of the Conservative party? I think you should run for it. You’ve been an MP, have one of the most popular financial blogs in Canada and are high profiled enough to win. I can’t stomach Trudeau and O’Leary just makes me sick. If my options for the next election are O’Leary and Trudeau I’m going to have to rethink being Canadian.

#122 InvestorsFriend on 01.18.17 at 4:52 pm

The CAD is dewad you say?

#112 USDCAD on 01.18.17 at 3:42 pm said:

Poloz killed the CAD today.

*************************************

Killed is a strong description it is still more than a cent higher than it was about three weeks ago…

Currencies fluctuate… so what?

What Poloz may have just done was jaw bone the CAD down a bit precisely so he won’t have to actually lower interest rates.

#123 InvestorsFriend on 01.18.17 at 4:53 pm

Interest Rates?

Despite any talk of rate cuts the Canada 5 year yield rose a bit today. Explain that.

#124 Doug in London on 01.18.17 at 4:54 pm

@Eks dee Sipal, post #94:
Tata owns Land Rover and Jaguar? Wow, you learn something new every day. It doesn’t surprise that me much in the international world we live in today.

Ace Goodheart, post #116:
I much prefer being person #2. I don’t own as much “stuff”, but have more time to enjoy using whatever “stuff” I already do have. I can sleep in everyday, travel, and do whatever else I want.

#125 For those about to flop... on 01.18.17 at 5:23 pm

Just noticed there has been an increase of 9% in the number of listings in Victoria in the past 48 hours…

It’s still low compared to normal ,but it could be the start of the spring swing…

M42BC

#126 Deano on 01.18.17 at 5:49 pm

#116 Ace Goodheart on 01.18.17 at 4:17 pm
Great post, I’m all about being #2

#127 Tony on 01.18.17 at 8:59 pm

Re: #122 InvestorsFriend on 01.18.17 at 4:52 pm

Poloz used Trump as a scapegoat but the real reason is Poloz is worried his precious real estate market will implode leaving CMHC bankrupt and the daft Millennials who bought at obscene levels filing for personal bankruptcy. Poloz will try will delay the inevitable by cutting interest rates even if the dollar falls to 50 cents. I’d bet the farm Poloz will cut rates.

#128 traderJim on 01.19.17 at 3:00 pm

I just made another ‘genius’ move and covered more of my short loonie position. I am now 70% hedged.

Plan is to sell it back in a day or three about 1 cent higher.

Easy money if it works…if not…ooops

#129 traderJim on 01.19.17 at 3:06 pm

I also went long oil, not a big position, but buying it and the loonie feels very uncomfortable here, so it’s probably the right thing to do.

Long UCO at 21.05.

#130 marketpundit on 01.19.17 at 4:52 pm

COULD be a big bear trap for those who short CAD. Keyword is COULD BE. Even though I would love to see CAD tank, today, we could not get into the up trending channel and got rejected. I fear yesterday’s move by Stevie was thought through in advance. If we get good data, tomorrow morning, CAD will spike again. Now, imagine of we did not retrace yesterday and today. CAD would be way up by now. It is obvious that Central Banks are talking their own currencies up or down regardless of data. Anyone exporting country does not need high currency in today’s highly competitive world.