The gap between Mecca and Misery grows ever wider. The latest stats reveal a steamy, demand-driven, low-supply real estate market in Toronto, and a dying-on-the-vine situation that’s developed in most other cities. ‘The last gasp” is how a Bloomberg article described the Kingdom of the GTA a few days ago. And it wasn’t fake news.
Logically, things should be changing. Everybody now expects mortgage rates to creep higher. And speaking of creeps, most moisters now view the federal finance minister as one. Ottawa’s far-reaching autumnal reg changes, including introduction of the hated borrower stress test, have started to bite.
Recall the survey results shared here last week. Brutal.
About half of first-time buyers in Ontario will delay a property purchase because of Bill Morneau. The stress test requires anyone putting down less than 20% to prove they have income sufficient to carry the place with a mortgage pegged at 4.64% – roughly twice the rate our accommodative banks are charging. That, say realtors and lenders, knocks out 45% of the kids, who must wait and save. And, oh Lord, saving is hard.
In total, 80% of all newbie buyers are impacted. Those not putting off a home purchase are looking for cheaper digs (34%) or moving out of Dodge (22%).
Meanwhile 52% of all condo purchases in Toronto are being made by specuvestors and amateur landlords, while over 130 new buildings will be coming on stream in 2017. At the same time, GTA prices increased 17.3% year/year in 2016 and the pace pf price acceleration by December had touched 20%. Inflation is 1.2% and wages are growing annually by 0.4%, so most real incomes have dropped. Household debt just cracked $2 trillion, of which 65% is in mortgages.
Does this sound healthy to you? Why, with the kids whacked, debt rampant and loans getting dearer, would real estate in Toronto escape unscathed?
For that answer, look to the eternal laws of supply and demand. The latter may be under pressure, but the former is in serious trouble. All you need to know is contained in this little box tucked at the bottom of the Toronto Real Estate Board monthly stats.
Wow. Sales last month up. New listings down. Total listings all but collapsed. That 48% decline in available homes over last year (which was low by historic standards) is solely responsible for a 17% rise in prices. Last month 5,338 properties changed hands, despite crap weather, and now there are fewer than 5,000 listings in a metropolitan area of six million people. That’s a 23-day supply even if sales languish at pre-Christmas levels.
But they’re not. Along with the entire squirrel population of the GTA, the locals woke up this past week to a waning winter, their loins suddenly, insatiably stirring with lust. House lust. And that takes us to 244 Bain, an ungainly skinny brick house on an ugly street on the wrong side of Toronto. The downstairs is one room with a tired kitchen stuck on the back, four bedrooms on two upper floors, a tiny garden and a laneway parking space. The property’s merely 20 feet across. The reno is dated. Two feet of clearance from the squat semi next door, with two agents standing at the dining room table watching the hordes pour in to their open house.
Dozens came Sunday. Wall-to-wall cars outside. A sea of shoes clogging the tiny vestibule. Scuffles on the staircase. The vague odour of competitive testosterone in the air. The asking is $1.4 million, but the expected sale price will be $1.6 million. With closing costs and the double land transfer tax, that’ll edge to $1.7 million. Offers accepted Monday at 7 pm. Be sure to include your certified cheque for at least $100,000.
“It’s a drought,” the experienced realtor throws out. “So little on the market that January is turning into a feeding frenzy. People bidding whatever they have to. Nobody knows how to price things anymore.”
Where from here?
No correction this spring in the last bubble market in Canada, not until the listings flow again. Ironically, the higher prices go, the fewer there are. Homeowners are either greedy for more windfall gains or (more likely) unable to move – priced out of the market, no matter what they pocket. It’s likely 90% of the people owning in Toronto these days (as in Vancouver) would be unable to afford their own houses.
Again, does this sound like a healthy market?
Things will continue to rise until they don’t. The final tulip bulb will be epic.
157 comments ↓
Bread, Circuses and…pizza.
Pizza Pizza (PZA.TO) stock is up over 40% this year. Yield still pushing 5 per cent.
Their latest deal: $5 for a slice, Kitkat bar and a pop. The latter two are 80% sugar made (modified gunk too)…yikes.
The kids are alright?
there is a 5 bedroom, 4 bathroom current house on 7 acres with ocean and mountain views, cross fenced for horses with barn and riding ring 10 minutes from town in my hood.
Don’t know what the property taxes are but ask is 1.6 million.
just saying…
Marc Cohodes on This Week in Money:
“The World’s Greatest Short Seller” tells us Why Vancouver Residential Real Estate Will Drop 50-80% From Its Peak Price.
http://www.howestreet.com/2017/01/14/this-week-in-money-87/
Could his prediction be possible or impossible ?
It’s infuriating that a former member of the government can lay out with such clarity, the staggering criminality of the current government, and yet no action is taken by the legal system. Canadian politicians should be bound in chains waiting for their turn at the guillotines.
I have zero respect for Canadians or Canada.
And so it continues…. I saw and still see that in BC greedy sellers- ask them outright if they would pay what they expect from others for their house or apartment and off course not but stupid government policies, CBC/ the province real estate sponsored news has them feeling entitled to atleast a couple hundred G’s profit for needing a place to live 10 years ago.
There is a saying, you can’t reason with stupid, und unfortunately the whole real estate market in BC and apparently GTA is based on a lot of stupid, among other thing. Go Canada, way to make it unaffordable to live and work in your own communities.
You should be taking notes, Limited Sage.
Study the market you’re interested in.
If you’re disciplined, you can buy at the bottom.
Jane Fonda in Fort Mac in January and on CTV voiced her displeasure with T2’s pipeline approvals and was a no-show at a personal invite with the Deputy Premier of Alberta to chat up the climate change agenda.
Plastic is made from carbon products i.e. oil; natural gas coal; etc.
Even in your Tesla the interior has high percentage of plastic components. Most cleaning products are in plastic containers; my vacuum is plastic; CROCS are not leather; electronics are made from plastic; furniture is made from plastic (McDonald’s and Tim Horton’s interior).
In Ontario we have lost many auto plant jobs. If Canada demonizes carbon and plastic in a double header attack it won’t be contained in Alberta but surely other industries like any polymer based sector will be ushered out of town with pink slips. That could mean many of us in Ontario.
Infrastructure spending is the mantra for T2’s economy but it slipped the bean counters blueprints that all those pipes going in the ground are made of plastic or carbon based natural materials.
I visited this open house today. It was a gong show. A mountain of realtor cards created over a salad bowl with two grinning realtors fielding questions from delusional realtors asking”what will it for for, you think” in front of their clients to get emotions racing and extracting a premium bid. Because the only way to secure this deal is am outlandish bid from a deluded buyer.
When I was there, there was a young Chinese family with septegenarian parents speaking in Mandarin. I found it strange as the realtor was asking questions in front of other visitors… Almost playing up that this family was going to bid, and bid huge. Even mentioned that they wanted to get in before a foreign tax was implemented.
I thought this was strange so I came back an hour later and the family was still there. The realtor Asking the same type me of questions in front of other visitors.
Now, maybe this was a just a really interested family, but it seems like staging is going well beyond furniture these days.
Toronto’s downtown market (S. of Bloor) not going down for a long time.
A couple buying da house – say a slanty semi of unknown provenance – each or both only need have an existing condo +/- Bank of Mom to come up with 20% down on this pig.
Mortgages still at 2%. Say it goes up by 1/2 point. Yawn. 3/4 point. Snorfle.
There is NO inventory of SFH <1m in downtown core.
-Now, back to watching gold futures tonight before I head to the gym and polish my pipes.
What about areas outside of the GTA like the Halton Region?
the record levels of cold weather continue around the world. But you will never hear about them on Phake News Media. They are too busy pushing the agenda of the elites and the govts they control. They want to issue more carbon taxes so support giant fat govts and push people down farther and farther. When are people going to wake up?????
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/01/08/world/european-cold-snap-kills-least-23/#.WHwIMbYrKT8
http://www.climatedepot.com/2017/01/06/record-cold-and-snow-has-descend-upon-the-planet/
Question for the blog dogs on self directed mortgages. I’ve had one for about about 15 years (read it in one of Mr Turners books a long time ago). Term is long at 25 years and about 9 to go, interest at 11.7%. For many of those years we only paid $500/mo which greatly aided cash flow and enabled my wife to stay home and raise the kids. We lived on one income then. Wife is working now (we pay $1000/mo now, kids in Uni and enough money to pay for them to finish. I’m thinking why not get a mortgage and pay it off? That frees up the mortgage note in the RRSP to further invest @6-7% and pay half that rate on the new mortgage. Wife says that’s crazy where are you going to ‘make’ 11.7%. I say we’re not ‘making’ that, we’ve always been just paying ourselves back, it’s different than actually making interest/dividends from the market. I must say though it feels good not owing anyone one red cent. I invite your comments.
1.6 million for that???
Some people see wealth in that. I see poverty. Lots of poverty.
Would $4 million make it better??? How about if we were talking about ANY other asset class. How about your food bill??
Its Insane and sad simultaneously.
Well, let’s talk about money laundering sometimes.
Because we understand there were no foreigners buying in Wan and yet sales are affected by introducing foreign tax. Let’s talk about money laundering which as we all know happens a lot in third rate countries…
I really like the ending of this story :
Things will continue to rise until they don’t. The final tulip bulb will be epic.
1 of 2 things will change the market in Toronto. 1 – higher rates or 2 – job loss. It’s not a good market for realtors or mortgage brokers. People can’t move or refinance their mortgage. Everyone is just stuck where they are.
#82 BC Politics and BC Liberals make International News on 01.15.17 at 3:51 pm
Yikes- to all criminal organizations – BC is open for the shady stuff.
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/01/13/world/canada/british-columbia-christy-clark.html?_r=0&referer
What actually shocks me is of the 2 trillion debt, 35% isn’t in mortgages. On average, every man woman and child in Canada has 20,000 in other debts?
It can’t all be car loans, and some people have no debt, so where is this money going?
What will stop or change the demand/supply issue? Wasn’t there supposed to be a glut of condos flooding the market by now?
Have no fear, Bill Morneau’s response to one of the biggest housing bubbles in the world is to “monitor the situation.” That makes me feel so relieved that he is really in tune with things and that he is taking measures to cool the market and make it more affordable for our young people and others who work in Canada and pay taxes.
At least, tulip bulbs you can eat. This houses built of sawdust and glue are toxic. So people are seating in empty houses eating canned tuna, waiting to get rich.
That’s new economy.
A real estate lawyer offered to us to buy a townhouse with commercial ground floor for 750,000 a few months back.
Now a guy next door asks for same ,1,300,000 and everybody is happily waiting for the next fool…
Listen, there will be no correction in Toronto. Ever! If you didn’t buy years ago, then forget it.
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjPwpnirMXRAhVQ1mMKHdi9BIAQFggaMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbc.ca%2Fnews%2Fcanada%2Ftoronto%2Fforeign-buyers-tax-toronto-real-estate-investors-1.3824467&usg=AFQjCNFqMKwctQE_UqraMBXd80g9na0cLw&sig2=69iIfonx-O9kr75pdQ6JeA
GOOD LUCK TO ALL THE RENTERS.
YOU’RE GONNA NEED IT!!!
after Bill Morneau’s Oct 3 retroactive changes to the reporting of the disposition of RE on tax forms, the market in 416 went up and has stayed up. Disenfranchisement of the young Canadian families starting out, that’s that’s what Morneau did. Harper waged a good war on the Canadian family, Morneau is just expanding it. It’s easy to blame the empty suits, but these initiatives did not come from the minds of Harper or Morneau
Where is the lane parking space? In the back?
Ditto for Victoria. Speaking with a realtor last week his office has agents who have dozens of buyer files and zero listing files. The vreb boss goes on to say (paraphrased) everyone is expecting to see Victoria mirror Vancouver in falling prices but this will not be the case because there are so many buyers with scant listings available.
1.7M for a 20 footer? WOW!!! People are house horny for sure. And the listing refer this is North Riverdale.. Seriously, Really!?
Whodat Whodat may finally kick off the free money to FTB very soon… Can’t wait to see stupid one got trap. This is insane and sad.
In total, 80% of all newbie buyers are impacted.
—-
But 100% of Canadian property owners who sell going forward, and even going back in time- ie ‘sold’ since Jan 1 2016, are impacted. Most are unaware of this fact, because Bill omitted it from his press conference. But everyone who has a rental unit or has been deducting a portion of their house for business will be impacted. Also anyone who took HST renovation rebates, of course Bill didn’t mention that either.
Friend flipped this:
https://themash.ca/realestategossip/2016/12/83-seaforth-avenue-roncesvallesparkdale
Sold for over $1m. Multiple offers. Will close in a week or so. We sat in the living room discussing GTA real estate and how prices climb without end. Constrained supply.
Good times.
On to the next one.
Garth, you keep warning, the one’s that grasp what you are saying gets it!
Where do we go from here? You’ve mentioned a balanced portfolio, actually you preach it. The world economies are in serious trouble, sure there are upbeat moments (forecasts) but we all know where all this is heading.
Every country (well almost) is in serious dire financial shape. The U.S. 20 trillion plus, one can only print money for so long, we have T2. How does one realistically escape what will happen within the next decade?
Anybody???
The world is immensely better than it was nine years ago. — Garth
What does healthy have to do with anything?
Its about making money, lots of money.
You ride the train until it stops and this puppy’s fuel tanks are full.
The dog in the photo of the day is very handsome with what looks to be very soft, nice fur.
Onto the property of the day. If the property is only 20 feet across & there are 2 feet of clearance between it & the semi beside is, then the house is presumably only 18 feet wide. With what looks to be a lot of TLC required to make it habitable in the long term. Scary! As for the price, there has to be some place to rent for far less than shelling out possibly 1.7 million. Doesn’t matter if interest rates are low, the price is way too high given that the buyer will probably need to find another $150,000 or more for various maintenance/upgrades just to ensure the property isn’t a total death trap. Also, how the heck does one have only 2 feet of clearance? Isn’t there some property bylaw that requires at least 5 to 8 feet clearance between properties in case of fire? Of course, the place might have been built way before any such bylaws were enacted…..
So true. Tulip mania 2.0. The misery is compounded by the lack of sufficient supply of brand new homes, to add supply to the resale market. Sounds like a lot of boomers are bankrolling the youngsters in such a mania. Based upon the Vancouver experience, 1) it will get wilder and 2) it will end badly. Thanks for staying on top of this mess.
Why are prices skyrocketing in Toronto and all of the GTA? Many reasons, but the biggest has to be the massive immigration into GTA. That is obviously not going to change. Actually, none of the factors driving high prices are going to change. That includes interest rates. If anyone thinks that this debt laden economy can possibly withstand higher rates, they should have their heads examined.
they’ll fix this with war
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhXfslQJfsY
World’s greatest fool?
#3 This Week in Money on 01.15.17 at 6:12 pm said:
Marc Cohodes on This Week in Money:
“The World’s Greatest Short Seller” tells us Why Vancouver Residential Real Estate Will Drop 50-80% From Its Peak Price.
http://www.howestreet.com/2017/01/14/this-week-in-money-87/
Could his prediction be possible or impossible ?
******************************************
That predictions is extraordinarily unlikely to come true.
This “world’s greatest short seller”, Mark Cohodes is not a name I recognize.
Pray tell, what place does he occupy on the list of the world’s wealthiest?
Not there? Thought so.
About half of first-time buyers in Ontario will delay a property purchase because of Bill Morneau. The stress test requires anyone putting down less than 20% to prove they have income sufficient to carry the place with a mortgage pegged at 4.64% – roughly twice the rate our accommodative banks are charging. That, say realtors and lenders, knocks out 45% of the kids, who must wait and save. And, oh Lord, saving is hard.
This may be correct many people I know are finding some work arounds. I know a family (single job, 2 children, income around 80K) who bought a house for 590 K. They say the realtor insisted that they will be left out so they bought it. Earlier they took a bit of time to think and lost on buying home for 520 K. Similar home now costs 590K. So they were worried they will ‘miss out’ again and this time listened to the realtor and bought it.
Now, they went to the bank and bank said they were eligible for 350K. They were willing to invest 120K down payment by bringing some money from their home country.
They approached a private lender and were not happy with the interest rates offered by the private lender . Now they went to the same bank again and they say they were approved for 470K.I never understood how.
Are the banks just looking other way around while approving mortgages?
Or are the mortgage brokers or real estate agents doing some kind of fraud?
with 80K, I know the take home is only 5000 a month
could break into below approximately.
1000 for groceries
1000 for a transportation (even with a single car)
1000 utilities+ property tax
1000 for children’s activities like sports, etc, clothes trips to home country etc
So they have only 1000 left for a mortgage. I don’t know how they are approved.
A balanced portfolio with 40 or 60% canadian assets is a risky bet. The TSX is still very oily and banky and reity. All things that have a lot of head winds once trump starts things a rolling.
Why would anyone so grossly overweight Canada? — Garth
There are only buyers paying so much because the banks and CU’s are giving the financing. Eighteen times a top teacher salary (approx $94,000) to buy this crap house?
The greater the rise above the mean, the greater the fall below the mean when it all collapses. I’m totally okay with that as long as none of my bank accounts or body parts suffer any collateral damage from the reckless financial follies of others.
Anyone can pick and choose a property that shows “oh my God, prices are high”.
And pick a property that shows “oh my God, prices are dropping fast!”
The reality is the market is going up, but not in any ridiculously fast way.
Naturally people want to make sure they don’t get prices out in a rising market.
Those who are comfortable where they live and have kids in good schools nearby don’t want to move.
Nothing to see here folk. Better to get back to talking about Justin’s trip to Bahamas.
Or if you want a real topic, start talking about Patrick Brown as the next Ontario Premier and Kevin O’Leary being the Canadian PC leader.
Do we have any info on how much of that silly, ill advised money inflating the GTA housing market is from foreign sources? I expect not, just like Vancouver. Seems like too much of a coincidence that the 15 % foreign buyers tax crashed the Vancouver market.
Re #3
I like his analysis of the situation in Vancouver. He is correct in saying that the crooked politicians have to et out of the real estate market. He is spot on when he says: ” I wouldn’t trust Christy Clark to walk a dog”
Associate of Stephen Harper’s firm behind shadowy new group linked to BC Liberals
https://www.pressprogress.ca/associate_at_stephen_harper_consulting_firm_behind_shadowy_new_group_linked_to_bc_liberals?utm_campaign=jan13_17ppbow&utm_medium=email&utm_source=broadbent
Please Garth, tell us you made that nightmare up! That is better than Smoking Mans fiction. So it must be true?
I am going straight to bed to dream of mortgage free rolling meadows filled with healthy growing flora and fauna.
I hope.
I just want to know how Lottery winners affect all this? Since we know it is not illegal money laundering. A mega lotto winner helping family out? A place to lock up some cash? We would assume a wage earner would not do something this stupid eg 1.6million to live like Archie and Edith Bunker. Cars lining the street? There is something really fishy going on and I want answers. I am not happy about the extremely well off and the suffering. But lotto winners every week…What are the stats I want to know.
Again, does this sound like a healthy market?
_______________________________________________________________
For sellers, yes it sounds very healthy. For anyone who was waiting for affordability, not so much.
Until they don’t. Same things been said for the last 7 years.
Bain is a pokey one way east of Pape. It backs onto ontario housing on Blake. Plywood has gone up in flames in that neighborhood and the TTC want to dig a subway relief line up Pape.
1.6 for that clap. No American in their right mind.
So no worries if you lost the bidding war.
http://insider.foxnews.com/2017/01/14/bikers-trump-wall-meat-inauguration-day-protests-donald-trump
hey garth, will you be joining the “wall of meat” as a biker for trump?
Garth,
You mentioned that Toronto is the last bubble marke., Does this mean that other markets (eg ottawa, Montreal) aren’t in bubble territory and ok to buy into?
The asking is $1.4 million, but the expected sale price will be $1.6 million.
so if you have $340,000 down payment and have a household income of $250,000, the Alterna Bank will give you a mortgage. Monthly payment is $6,308. Mortgage is 2 year at 2.74%. I guess that’s a 2 year fixed term. You have to pay $24,400 for mortgage default insurance – who is the insurance company – Genworth? I’m guessing the insurance is only valid for 2 years?
This is a joke. This was a working man’s house.
I see Cramdown is a stapled fixture over at that nasaly voiced Toronto realty blog.
You lay with blogs and get fleas? He’s hatched a plan. Laying the Golden Dreg over there.
#8 Mike (fake buyers)
LOL …..Mike you just found out about fake Asian/ buyers in the GTA open houses? MY buddy a realtors was telling me its the new scheme created by clever realtors to create crazy bidding wars. They have been doing this for sometime now. Buddy was going on and on at the sheep’s stupidity. I thought it was funny too.
This Week in Money: Marc Cohodes on This Week in Money He used the term debt slave – he might be the guy who posts here as “debtslavecreator”.
Pharmboi: What about areas outside of the GTA like the Halton Region?
which includes Georgetown, Milton and Oakville.
this is sort of like a giant game of frozen tag. Once prices drop and you have a big mortgage, you’re frozen. I mean if you signed the mortgage on 244 Bain Ave for $1.6 million and prices go down, you’re frozen. If you signed the mortgage for $400,00 in Georgetown, you’re frozen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEKLFS-aKcw
All it took was a 15% foreign buyer tax to bring Vancouver Real Estate to its senses, but here in Wynntario, no such tax until Ontarians protest outside Queens Park.
#2 Metaxa on 01.15.17 at 6:10 pm
there is a 5 bedroom, 4 bathroom current house on 7 acres with ocean and mountain views, cross fenced for horses with barn and riding ring 10 minutes from town in my hood.
Don’t know what the property taxes are but ask is 1.6 million.
just saying…
…………………………………………….
Just saying what? Comparing apples to oranges? Nothing that big in GVRD is 1.6M. Comparing Mission, BC with GTA is meaningless.
SO, Toronto realestate is hot. No On fire.
What? a supply and demand issue. What have preaching on here for years.
Trump wins the election? Yet no accolades.
Brexit that one two.
Taper. No taper.
And all the shit I talk about.
I wrote the best book of the decade. No sales
What does someone need to do on here to get respect?
Do I tell you the next wikileaks dump will be a game changer.
What do I know? An old lush who’s looks forward to three more teath falling out.
Isen’t life wonderfull.
Wynne’s home in mid-Toronto has already more than doubled in value since purchase, so why would she do anything to affect her net worth? Her only option is handouts of taxpayer money to first time homebuyers to further goose the real estate prices.
Although it needs a crap ton of work and the subway rattles below it, I’d take this one any day over the Bain pile. It least you can swing a cat in the yard.
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17680955/11-BIRCHVIEW-Boulevard-Toronto-Ontario-M8X1H4-Kingsway-South
Well, the Pink Snow on the ground has turned into a mini Pink Snowball in Greater Vancouver.
In December the total number of price reductions was 800, with the average reduction being 60k off the asking price.$ 54.3 million in total.
I am already noticing the snowball pick up pace in the first half of January.
We already have 600 price reductions,averaging 80k and already passing the dollar amount for the whole month of December with the collective buyers taking a $58million cut in total asking prices.
Could be blood in the snow…could also be Tabasco sauce…
M42BC
Toronto is the best, most desirable city in the world. Its economy is rock solid. Everyone wants to live there. Real estate prices will never go down.
Wait – sorry, no. I’ve been drinking. Toronto’s actually a pretty ordinary city and this is just an ordinary asset bubble. Everybody who lives there is a self-important knob.
– An enormous, $13K cell phone? Yup, in 1986
I read this with wry amusement as I had one of these bricks, North American serial number 621. Talk about early adopter. What I remember most was the constant abuse I got for carrying it around. I had to sling it over my shoulder in a leather case that made it look like a police radio. Everywhere I went I got dirty looks and barely concealed mutterings. “Who does he think HE is? What a pretentious idiot! Nobody needs one of those!” as Canadians followed their inbuilt tendency to pull down the highest lobster. People actually got angry or contemptuous when I made a call on a street corner.
I didn’t actually care as I had realized that I no longer needed an office and receptionist which meant the phone paid for itself in less than a year plus I could use my boat whenever I felt like it. It was an incredible trip in those days to make calls from once impossible places like from a mountain top in Hawaii or from a jet.
It’s funny to remember how anti-tech people were in those days. I quickly adopted a “luggable” computer but lawyers of my acquaintance wouldn’t touch a keyboard because that’s what secretaries did.
That was only thirty years ago which seems like a long time if you’re 25 but it isn’t. All those detractors who derided me had their own cell phones within ten years and even lawyers got laptops. This process is continual. We all see how things have changed in the past but most of us steadfastly refuse to believe they will change that much in the future.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/telus-bc-first-cellphones-archives-1.3922062
@I don’t know, post #34:
Every day in the comments section I see “experts” here saying interest rates will never go up, never, never, never, never, never. In Friday’s Globe and Mail business section there was an article titled: The real reason why the bond bear market is here to stay. Here’s a clip form that article: Baby boomers have started to retire (progressively in larger numbers) and have stopped saving; in fact they are in their de-saving (consumption) years which reduces the supply of funds. This happens in the face of increasing demand by corporations, as well as by increase in government’s need to borrow to fund structural deficits. To clear the demand-supply imbalance, the real interest rate trend is pushed up.
I won’t copy it all here, but the article gives other reasons interest rates will go up. This low interest rate environment we have now is an anomaly, a severe aberration from the norm. While the Bank of Canada may try to keep interest rates down in the short run, pressures from the bond market will, more likely than not, eventually push interest rates higher.
So, will bond markets keep interest rates down to protect fools that got themselves too deeply indebted? The bond market doesn’t care about them anymore than the Chicago Mercantile Exchange cares about people who can’t afford higher food prices.
Your best bet now would be to buy more CPD, XPF, and ZPR if you don’t already have exposure to these ETFs.
I like Garth’s blog but feel very few people here are actually buying properties themselves.
Vancouver was a place for people to “park” money and then the locals got riled up and heated the market.
Many parts of Toronto/GTA are not the super wealthy investing, but hard working people from all over the world who want to live here.
Big difference.
And it’s why you need to pick the right areas to buy in.
There are areas where wealthy people or even people trying to be wealthy will put their money to live in.
Think Forrest Hill and continue to look north.
@Ex-Van, post #59:
Good post! Couldn’t have said it better myself. Anyone who actually believes the first paragraph has not only been drinking, but probably also smoking some of that weed our prime minister plans to legalize!
#40 Kevin Li on 01.15.17 at 8:11 pm
Or if you want a real topic, start talking about Patrick Brown as the next Ontario Premier and Kevin O’Leary being the Canadian PC leader.
—–
lol, Lary for PM, in my opinion no self respecting “conservative” will ever vote for Lary… same way NoOne voted for Whodat.
http://www.inspiremore.com/innocent-farmer-gets-ridiculed-on-shark-tank-but-what-happens-next-made-my-day/
People it’s not the Russians.
It’s huminoid looking dudes that wizz around in these orange flying machines that I seam to communicate with them easily. I told there story.
But they keep bugging me. I did my job. Gave their message as requested.
I no longer ask why me. The more important question. Why greaterfool for disclosure.
Think they like your cowboy boots garth.
Cowboys the next assholes in the lesbonic slitsonights cross hairs.
Always a ying vs a yang. Black vs white. Life vs time.
No idea where I’m going with this. It’s not the russans.
God damn Nictonites. .please leave me alone. .
Re: #9 TurnerNation on 01.15.17 at 6:39 pm
Normally they pump stocks higher then monkey hammer gold and silver. Problem is even with everything rigged there’s no way on Earth they can possibly pump stocks any higher so it follows they can’t money hammer gold and silver yet.
Meanwhile In Canada with a Trump President.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUTnNKhF-EU
This sounds familiar to what I saw ob my street last year in Vancouver. Dumpy house down the street went on the market, people showed up by the dozens in fancy cars to make an offer- finally sold at $1.7m.
A year later, a similar house sits on the market for months. Unloved.
Just can’t last.
Feels a little like Vancouver circa March 2016.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/why-canadians-cant-stop-borrowing/article33627676/
DELETED
Even this innocuous price reduction could be the start of some pain for these guys.
They bought it at the peak of the market in July for 700k and have now taken the asking price down after trying to flip for a quick profit.
With the decline in the market at the moment,they could possibly get most of their money back ,but will most likely have to take a loss or wait for a resurgence.
Who knows?Lots of horseshit out in Langley…
M42BC
20237 52 Avenue, Langley
Oct 28:$847,000
Jan 15: $814,000
Change: – 33000.00 -4%
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDBGNDE3OQ==
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana
“We learn from history that we learn nothing from history.” – George Bernard Shaw
“We spend a great deal of time studying history, which, let’s face it, is the history of stupidity.” – Stephen Hawking
The world is immensely better than it was nine years ago. — Garth
Just like the housing market in Toronto is immensely better than it was nine years ago, right?
Garth only sees one bubble, Canadian housing. What’s the likelihood evey other asset class is perfectly priced in a world of 0% rates for 8 years?
And how can this be unwound, as you keep telling us the Fed is planning, without a massive fall in all asset classes?
Let’s get acquainted with reality, I think 2017-2018 will force it on us.
#71 Smoking Man on 01.15.17 at 10:28 pm
DELETED
Love you god.
God Of Dogs. Not sucking up. But when your a good shit you can’t hide behind cowboy boots no matter what the lesbinights say about you.
reason for TO real estate bubble – the Chinese Dudes.
Evidence? No such dudes at Bain on Sunday. — Garth
CHRISTY CLARK – CRIME BOSS OF BC!
We will not forget at the polls what you have done to us.
You bubbleheads still watching for that price crash? Watch in Q2 how CMHC’s new $130B MBS quota is filled. Sign here for a mortgage. Anybody.
Garth:
You have catalogued well the reasons for the lunacy in the GTA RE market namely low interest rates, FOMO, hormones, stupidity, Bank of Mom etc.
Could there be a big reason that you have not delved into, namely our entry into the era of the biggest transfer of generational wealth from the boomers (this boomer excluded) since the indigenous indigents crossed the Bering Strait (hence the Bank of Mom/Dad)?
“#29 Leo Trollstoy on 01.15.17 at 7:34 pm
Friend flipped this:
https://themash.ca/realestategossip/2016/12/83-seaforth-avenue-roncesvallesparkdale
Sold for over $1m. Multiple offers. Will close in a week or so. We sat in the living room discussing GTA real estate and how prices climb without end. Constrained supply.
Good times.
On to the next one.”
Nice. Roncy is still good value. Lots of opportunities for flippers there.
Comment #77 Never give up
I truly hope you are right. There’s a lot of idiots out there that may still vote for the crook.
MF,I watched Anthony Bourdain do a show on the Philippines tonight and thought of you.
Did you see it? If not ,I think you would enjoy it.
He was very kind in his review of the people of that country.
Personally, a few years ago when I decided to take a break from construction and took a low paying job in a factory, the main reason I did this for 3 years was because of the sunny disposition ,camaraderie and work ethic of the Filipino people there.
My version of working for free was their dream job,it was a daily reminder of how fortunate most Canadians and Australians are…
M42BC
1.7 mil for that piece of sh!t…..yup Toronto you really are ‘special’…
Smoking man, you and Garthy are the best writers I’ve ever come across. You have different styles, no doubt. But you guys out do any writer on the NY times best seller list. Garth with both message and style, you with message and delivery. Goddammit.
And I’ve Ben following your calls with branch davidian style devotion on here since 2010. You are second to none as a market prognosticator, the world over. I’ve made so much money following you I have the vanity plate OHLC SMAN.
Hi Garth et al,
When I first started reading this blog, I had bought and renovated a house in Toronto in 2008, full disclosure I am the poster boy for real estate one asset strategy and not properly diversified at all (not good) and if I sold , my first email would be to our humble host to help me figure out cap gains taxes and happily pay the 1% to manage whatever money was left , not as much as people think, but healthy gains.
I started reading the blog (2009) because while researching the net, U of G (like SM, I have very little formal education, I sold door to door too (hated it so much)). Two names kept popping up as real estate BEARS. Garth Turner and Ben Rabidoux.
I do not know what happened to Ben , and I started reading Garth daily ever since but rarely commenting because my bias towards real estate in Toronto came across as trolling (didn’t even know what that meant , had to look it up).
I have learned so much on the blog, even from comments, and I thought real estate in Toronto had peaked in 2010, I was wrong but mostly dumb luck.
Garth is not and was not a real estate BEAR and I so agree on his math and diverse approach to stable finances, but i was unable to sell my house in 2010, and it has since increased in value and been well rented and repaired legally and all taxes paid on a small income. The capital gain is more substantial and I will deal with it.
My house is detached , well divided into 2 above ground legal apartments, and an empty basement with laundry, 26′ front on the good side of Toronto, central and I can provide a 5 year mortgage to the new buyer if required(would help me defer capital gains taxes , I think). I am planning on selling privately, not because I am greedy or dislike realtors but I think my house has great value and I am trying to avoid the scene of open houses and bidding wars , but a silent bid system would be great.
I would happily pay the commision to a buyer who brought their agent and provide a 2.5% discount to those who chose not to. I will provide a third party home inspection and allow home inspections for people who bid as the house will be sold as is.
I know this is not a commercial site nor a real estate selling blog and I tried not to include too many details on the house or address but its under a million and updated.
I have been preparing, how to advertise my house on my own and how to handle showings and I have spoken to my lawyer on how to handle bids, I have not started yet.
I wondered if Garth would allow all the details to be posted here with pics and contruction details and address and specs, costs , taxes and fees. The posters can take cheap shots at my house and it would make for a good case study on a real estate sale in real time. Since I am not using a realtor , I could donate the 2% listing commission to a good DOG charity decided by Garth or by a vote of blog dogs.
I have thoroughly enjoyed reading the blog since 2010, especially BOOM (RIP), WUL , CatFoodLady (miss her), Ralph Cramden(come back), FLOPPER (funny), Context (Old Man), SM ,ACE Goodheart,Penny Henny and I even read all of Marks posts. And I know way too much about FF.
I apologize if this post is too commercial, sorry about the grammer , I type like SM, I wish you all a happy new year. I would take any private sale advice for this newbie but I will mostly rely on my lawayer. Let me know what you think.
M46ON
M64WI
Funny, asians (sorry Garth, Canadians of asian decent) being paid to FOMO everyone that enters an open house. How is this not mainstream news? Oh, right, news is paid by the real estate cartel to keep everyone fixated on the only thing that matters in life…real estate buy now or never, never goes down, better ask (guilt mom and dad now into a downpayment)…
This never would have been so out of control if the government would regulate the industry properly. And believe me Canada has had mortgages approved for years without needing to verify incomes- that at least has changed to some degree now.
Can you imagine the financial industry or any other regulated industry pulling off stunts like that? Lets just scare the hell out of our clients, trick them and fool them into believing something that is simply not true (in this case that Chinese buyers are going to bid big) so we can extract even more money and unfairly bid up prices.
Seems like an honourable profession. Public has been so brainwashed, constantly bombarded daily with real estate news, government policies leading that led to rising prices, hard to break new beliefs that you can’t and should lose by buying real estate that any realtor should need to add in a mix of FOMO to fool the sheeple anymore.
Can someone please tell me another industry where something like this would be allowed without any consequences?
Sorry that should be “Seems like an honourable profession. Public has been so brainwashed, constantly bombarded daily with real estate news, government policies leading that led to rising prices, hard to break new beliefs that you can’t and shouldn NOT lose by buying real estate that any realtor should need NOT to add in a mix of FOMO to fool the sheeple anymore.”
I guess I get too worked up when I see this FRAUD still going on….
and it is FRAUD to a certain extent. Funny sure but it fraud none the less.
Your “Year over Year summary” says the following to me:
In 2015 there were 4745 new listings and in 2016 there were 4188. So 557 fewer people listed their homes for sale in 2016.
In 2015 there were 9137 active listings and in 2016 there were 4746. What that tells me is houses are not staying on the market as long in 2016 as they did in 2015. Because you have almost the same number of new listings in both years, but you have a glut of houses in 2015, which is roughly halved in 2016 (9137 versus 4746).
Would that not indicate that more houses sold in 2016 than in 2015?
#82 For those about to flop… on 01.16.17 at 1:17 am
Flop,
I love Bourdain but I not seen that episode yet. I will give it a look for sure.
I did, however, watch Andrew Zimmern’s “Bizarre Foods” episode when he travels to the PI. All I have to say is google “soup #5″…maybe after lunch lol.
MF
It is nutty here in Toronto though. The semi that I bought back in 2012 for $279,000 is apparently (if the local realtor clique can be believed) worth slightly over $700,000 and increasing in value by about $20,000 per month. Not sure how that works. If it hits a mil I may have to pull the trigger. I don’t live in it anyway (have another vastly overpriced Toronto house that we call home). Bought both of them back in 2012, the semi for $279,000 and the detached for $329,000.00. The detached is now well into million dollar territory (but we live in it, it is paid for and we don’t want to move).
The semi as I said, is going up in value in ways I have not seen in recent history. $20,000 per month is epic.
In 2023/24 sfh prices will return to 1980’s levels in and around the GTA.
There will be a pause or two in upward prices along the way heading toward the end of this current real estate cycle. But the coming crash of the early 20’s will take no prisoners.
Current demand shows this real estate cycle is alive and well keeping pace with historical trends with a long way still to go.
Demand will keep even the unhealthiest markets alive until it abates leaving current equities in shambles.
Will the many not the few be inclined to stay in their mortgaged to the hilt houses when their values drop to half of what they owe with their mortgage rates tripled?
Many will squat in their houses until they are removed where ultimately hundreds of thousands of houses will be empty and prices will be halved again as the banks are forced to begin sorting out the mess. If there are still any banks left.
Will the mid 20’s then be the time to buy?…..Not likely with all the panic and chaos and sheer struggle just to survive.
4 Days to Trumpocalypse
Protests, boycotts, military build-up increasing in Europe.
And these will seem like “the good ‘ol days” very soon.
Often found in the replies to this type of article (folly of buying overpriced real estate) is one or more assertions that something will keep demand for houses high. It could be increasing immigration, limited supply, the difficulty that higher interest rates would cause, or some other factor (sun spots?).
It would be interesting to see an analysis of these claims and whether or not each factor is a good predictor of future house prices.
Things will continue to rise until they don’t. The final tulip bulb will be epic. – Garth
This despite the recent tightening by the FED and rise in interest rates.
The debt binge continues, obviously out of control and this is not just GTA it’ coast to coast. In Quebec for example where there is presumably no bubble (don’t believe it) insolvency has exploded, so has the number of defaults and the amount of unpaid debt.
Was this the big news for January 23rd you were talking about… (-;
http://mobilesyrup.com/2017/01/15/samsung-to-reveal-why-the-galaxy-note-7-caught-fire-on-january-23rd-says-report/
Oh well. This site has been taken down now.
http://gtasoldview.com/Default.aspx
I was really enjoying it. I guess too many people were. Thanks to the poster who put in this comment section though. It was fun while it lasted.
#10 Pharmboi on 01.15.17 at 6:42 pm
What about areas outside of the GTA like the Halton Region?
**********************************************
There is going to be very difficult comps come Fall and Winter of this year. As much as it was a hot Spring market it continued much higher in the Fall and Winter. Basically up 20% YOY last year in every month. We may see single digit growth up to the Spring but flat to negative the second half of the year. All depends on supply though and what interest rates or Trump does.
@#58 Kevin Li Realtor
“I like Garth’s blog but feel very few people here are actually buying properties themselves…..”
******************************************
THATS a BINGO!
Troll somewhere else………
The government doesn’t even help buyers with the most basic access to information – how do we expect them to help the broader market or regulate the RE profession?
ACTIONS THAT CAN BE TAKEN TODAY WITHOUT CONTROVERSY:
1. Quick denial of the TREB appeal to the commission bureau – Sold Data for everyone (force agents to offer something ‘more’ to EARN commissions
2. Agents should only make commissions on list price….nothing more
3. Agents caught in an intentional conflict of interest should be fined heavily NOT BY THEIR PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATION BUT BY GOVERNMENT (alternative – criminal)
When it comes to savings, I think deferred gratification. I have to perceive a benefit for doing so. Life is uncertain so living in the present or planning for the future is an individual choice. I try to balance between the present and the future. No point going to the grave to leave a heritage unless I am loaded. I have a plan and a budget. It keys around me living to 85 and leaving my house to my 2 daughters.
I might be turning into a survivalist. I bought a small, portable wood burning stove and a can of tuna over Christmas. Bring on the apocalypse or more carbon taxes. My slingshot is armed and ready.
#92 Trumpocalypse2017 on 01.16.17 at 8:19 am
4 Days to Trumpocalypse
Protests, boycotts, military build-up increasing in Europe.
And these will seem like “the good ‘ol days” very soon.
Fear not little one. The Biker’s “Wall of Meat” will take of everything. I will solve ALL problems on Friday. Believe me.
#85 WileE Toronto on 01.16.17 at 3:05 am
Use Comfree to get the listing on MLS, definitely a must.
Republican Party new symbol.
https://goo.gl/jmGqwh
No building permits taken on the renos…. SCARY!!!
Think of all the asbestos in there and shoddy construction folks!
East of the Don River is hardly the ‘wrong side’ of Toronto!
Now we know where you live. — Garth
hey ! Mark Carney found some of the missing bit of common sense
http://rinf.com/alt-news/multimedia/video-brexit-flip-flop-bank-of-england-head-says-exit-will-hit-eu-harder-than-uk/
it shows that even bankers can be (partially) honest
For the Schlock Pickers…loading up on the biggest weed stock today and mid cap gold miners for a few weeks. Our future.
Ha ha ha!
The city of delusions. GTA More expensive than New York, Vaughan twice more expensive than Long Island!
Bring it on, let show the world how different we are…
GTA will become the joke of the world.
S..tty place with nothing to do and brainfrozen popuale stuck in traffic or at the malls most of the time.
What a joke!
Along with a lot of other bubble watchers, I saw the 1990 Japan bubble coming and I even had the opportunity to watch it implode up close.
I also saw the Internet bubble of late 90’s early 2000’s, again, as did many other ‘value investor’ types who pay attention to bubble blogs.
The 2007-2008 real estate bubble was dead easy to predict, and I sold all my real estate in June 2006 as a result. (And I bought in a developing country with dirt cheap prices)
Now, Toronto and especially Vancouver are definitely bubbles, but I don’t have the same sense that they will burst in the near future.
They might, but I think a key difference now is the massive flood of liquidity being pumped out by CBs all over the world.
I mean, easy money has been a trend post Volcker, but we’ve never seen anything like the trillions being created out of thin air that we have now.
Looks to me like this bubble has legs. We could easily get 2 more years of insanity before it blows.
$2 million average price for detached house possible? Seems insane, but it’s possible.
Won’t last for long, but we could see it.
It is already epic, I always thought that ‘truck driver’ in Canada and ‘Torontonian’ are diagnoses.
Anyone can dump toxic waste on your private property, and the government can then demand you pay for hauling it away. In this poor lady’s case, the cost was over 10K.
http://www.therecord.com/news-story/5653833-barrels-of-toxic-waste-dumped-at-woolwich-sugar-bush/
My call since day one. I don’t think I’ll be wrong. 50% collapse in prices in GTA with overshooting reversal of the mean approaching an 80% devaluation. Why try to time when exactly it will occur? If you have a family to think about… Get out. Now.
Last week Garth said prices in Victoria will be dropping soon. Inventory so low, I can’t see that happening this spring either. Curious why he would say Victoria’s prices will correct when Torontos won’t when both cities have record low inventory.
In the twenty-year period comprising WW2 and the beginnings of the Vietnam War, Canada agreed to manufacture munitions and Agent Orange near Elmira, Ontario, allowing Uniroyal (yes, the same company that makes tires) to dump toxic waste and bury it in the ground, many barrels of which still are not discovered to this day.
“plant effluent was inspected by Environment Canada and found to be in compliance with the provisions of subsection 36.3 of the Fisheries Act.”
Hahaha. I trust in my government, how about you? Here we witness Stephane Dion absolving himself of any responsibility to do anything and claiming that Environment Canada should be the final arbiter of justice. Thanks a lot.
http://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/pet_128_e_28855.html
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/dear-vancouver-renters-you-just-cant-catch-a-break/article33625132/
—
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/insolvent-richmond-law-firm-files-notice-for-creditors
“Smoking man, you and Garthy are the best writers I’ve ever come across.”
LOL…you made my Monday..Thanks
#84 Jakethesnake on 01.16.17 at 2:59 am
Smoking man, you and Garthy are the best writers I’ve ever come across. You have different styles, no doubt. But you guys out do any writer on the NY times best seller list. Garth with both message and style, you with message and delivery. Goddammit.
And I’ve Ben following your calls with branch davidian style devotion on here since 2010. You are second to none as a market prognosticator, the world over. I’ve made so much money following you I have the vanity plate OHLC SMAN
……………………………………………………………………
Thanks for spending the $300 plus dollars on your vanity plate to support our crappy liberal gov. He may be second to none, but he is definitely about as stable as his Golden shower idle.
@WileE Toronto
What’s the catch? Is it at jane and finch or something? It sounds way too good to be true (no offense).
My husband and I would love to buy a house one of these days to raise a family but with the current market about to pop it would be insane to jump in now. Not to mention not fitting into the rule of 90 for us.
(Reference: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/01/15/until-they-dont/#comment-494884)
That dump would sell for less than $250k in Red Deer, AB
If I asked when you think the final tulip bulb would rot , would you venture a guess?
I guess I will do a post as to what is happening on Vancouver Island,price reduction wise to keep my blog buddies over there in the loop.
In Nanaimo, so far this year there has been 33 price reductions and one increase with the average amount being a fairly low $15k compared to places like Richmond and Coquitlam,which are averaging over 100k but with larger asking prices obviously.
In Victoria,it is much more of a mixed bag.
There are way less price reductions with only nine so far this year.
This combined with 6 price increases suggests there is uncertainty as to which way the market is going to go.
As with Nanaimo the average reduction in Victoria was around 15k ,which is way less than InfLewenza spends on Italian suits each year by the sounds of it…
M42BC
#84 Jakethesnake on 01.16.17 at 2:59 am
Smoking man, you and Garthy are the best writers I’ve ever come across. You have different styles, no doubt. But you guys out do any writer on the NY times best seller list. Garth with both message and style, you with message and delivery. Goddammit.
And I’ve Ben following your calls with branch davidian style devotion on here since 2010. You are second to none as a market prognosticator, the world over. I’ve made so much money following you I have the vanity plate OHLC SMAN.
…..
Thanks Jake. What does the OHLC stand for?
#34 I don’t know on 01.15.17 at 7:42 pm
Why are prices skyrocketing in Toronto and all of the GTA? Many reasons, but the biggest has to be the massive immigration into GTA. That is obviously not going to change. Actually, none of the factors driving high prices are going to change. That includes interest rates. If anyone thinks that this debt laden economy can possibly withstand higher rates, they should have their heads examined.
————————–
The bond market doesn’t care what “the economy can withstand”. Unless the Bank of Canada steps in and does QE, rates will be determined by supply and demand.
You say not to time the market but you are doing exactly that with your overweightness on USA last year. Bad advice IMO, US, CAN and INT should always be equal weighting. As proven last year, your strategy would have lagged.
Canada is 4% of world markets. Having 33% in maple is home country bias. Irrational. — Garth
Every country (well almost) is in serious dire financial shape. The U.S. 20 trillion plus, one can only print money for so long, we have T2. How does one realistically escape what will happen within the next decade?
Anybody???
The world is immensely better than it was nine years ago. — Garth
____________________________________________
The cost of living is going through the roof and job prospects are nigh. HOW exactly is the world better? Because APPLE keeps giving us better Iphones?
121 For those about to flop… on 01.16.17 at 1:08 pm
I guess I will do a post as to what is happening on Vancouver Island,price reduction wise to keep my blog buddies over there in the loop.
In Nanaimo, so far this year there has been 33 price reductions and one increase with the average amount being a fairly low $15k compared to places like Richmond and Coquitlam,which are averaging over 100k but with larger asking prices obviously.
In Victoria,it is much more of a mixed bag.
There are way less price reductions with only nine so far this year.
This combined with 6 price increases suggests there is uncertainty as to which way the market is going to go.
As with Nanaimo the average reduction in Victoria was around 15k ,which is way less than InfLewenza spends on Italian suits each year by the sounds of it…
M42BC
–-–———————–———————–
Good work and I know this may only be the beginning. But with the prices basically tripling in the past ten or twelve years these reductions are basically meaningless. These places are still vastly overvalued.
#122 smoking man:
OHLC – open high, low close
“I’ve never made more money RENTING vs OWNING”
So very true. Try it. You’ll love it.
No more $100 trips each week to the Home Depot
No more $3000+ year property tax
No more $500 utility bills
No more $40,000 reno’s
No more $40,000 realtor’s tax
No more $5000 year maintenance
It’s all money in your pocket.
85 WileE Toronto,
Context (Old Man)? I had hunch, you sure, thought he was in love in Mehico?
Remember buy made in USA when you can!
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2118093-global-sea-ice-is-at-lowest-level-ever-recorded/
Not that it matters..
#122 Smoking Man on 01.16.17 at 1:37 pm
#84 Jakethesnake on 01.16.17 at 2:59 am
Smoking man, you and Garthy are the best writers I’ve ever come across. You have different styles, no doubt. But you guys out do any writer on the NY times best seller list. Garth with both message and style, you with message and delivery. Goddammit.
And I’ve Ben following your calls with branch davidian style devotion on here since 2010. You are second to none as a market prognosticator, the world over. I’ve made so much money following you I have the vanity plate OHLC SMAN.
…..
Thanks Jake. What does the OHLC stand for?
—
P&L ?
While the Headmaster of this blog relaxes on Saturday afternoons by his fireplace, his two Vice Principals, Ryan Lewenza ( InfLewenza) and Doug Rowat (Robax ) take it in turns of giving us their thoughts on sometimes less discussed topics on this blog.
Various commentators have relayed their thoughts on who writes the better post of the two and who is gaining ground on the boss.
I don’t really have a favourite as I am just glad that the boss roped them into writing a post and then giving up part of their Saturday to answer any appropriate questions.
I have not had the pleasure of a response yet, I suspect partially because they are not thrilled with their nicknames and partially because of my infamous Doctors office post ,which was written trying to get InfLewenza to relax and also part of the initial hazing process.
I guess after the boss delivered his recent post about InfLewenza’s supposed lifestyle I subconsciously started thinking that I would be able to relate to the less flashy,less visible,Robax.
That was up until a short time ago ,when his secretary emailed me saying that she had found a receipt for $6.99 for his monthly subscription to…
‘How to be just as cool as Ryan Lewenza.’
Now I am torn…
M42BC
#123 When Will They Raise Rates?
The bond market doesn’t care what “the economy can withstand”.
————————————————————-
The fact is the bond market has quietly accepted the near zero returns for the last eight years. It’s had no choice. And that is because of government manipulation in the so-called free market. Whatever you may think, the governments of the world will step in to make sure that rates stay low. As you assert, one way will be for the government to print more money.
DELETED
#131 Braj on 01.16.17 at 3:27 pm
#122 Smoking Man on 01.16.17 at 1:37 pm
#84 Jakethesnake on 01.16.17 at 2:59 am
Smoking man, you and Garthy are the best writers I’ve ever come across. You have different styles, no doubt. But you guys out do any writer on the NY times best seller list. Garth with both message and style, you with message and delivery. Goddammit.
And I’ve Ben following your calls with branch davidian style devotion on here since 2010. You are second to none as a market prognosticator, the world over. I’ve made so much money following you I have the vanity plate OHLC SMAN.
…..
Thanks Jake. What does the OHLC stand for?
—
P&L ?
………………………………………………………………
I think its Open High, Low Close?
#82 For those about to flop… on 01.16.17 at 1:17 am
absolutely true!
they sure made my job a lot more bearable when I was a gardener for a couple of major hotels in vancouver.
#127 Ana on 01.16.17 at 3:05 pm
#122 smoking man:
OHLC – open high, low close
………………………………………………………………
Jesus Smoking dude, I even new that one. And you worked on Bay street on the trading floor? No wonder they punted you to the curb.
Retire now old toothless one, at least while you can still see your balls hidden under your belly.
The climate “realists”
Morano runs the denialist blog ClimateDepot. He’s also the communications director of the Center for a Constructive Tomorrow, a Washington, D.C.-based libertarian think tank focused on environmental issues that’s received funding from fossil fuel interests such as ExxonMobil and Chevron. He got his start on the climate issue working as communications director for Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma from 2006 to 2009, and before that for conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh. He’s a frequent speaker at the Heartland Institute’s International Conference on Climate Change and often appears on Fox News and other conservative media outlets. In 2010, after months of stoking Climategate on his blog, he said climate scientists “deserve to be publicly flogged.”
Leaked Email Reveals Who’s Who List of Climate Denialists
A network of pundits and scientists is consulted about stopping release of “Merchants of Doubt,” a documentary film that exposes their work.
By Katherine Bagley, InsideClimate News
Mar 12, 2015
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12032015/leaked-email-reveals-whos-who-list-climate-denialists-merchants-of-doubt-oreskes-fred-singer-marc-morano-steve-milloy
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zillow won’t put this on their maps especially the ones that put “wake” signs on their front lawns
the american venice (ft. lauderdale)
“See that house right there—the white ranch-style one?” Bolter said one day in late November, during a balmy, sundrenched ride on a yellow water taxi through Fort Lauderdale’s waterways. She glanced at her smartphone to consult a database compiled by her company, Coastal Risk Consulting. “That property flooded 11 days last year. By the late 2030s it could have water on its property 267 days per year.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/01032016/ft-lauderdale-climate-change-global-warming-rising-sea-level
#133 I don’t know on 01.16.17 at 3:56 pm
#123 When Will They Raise Rates?
The bond market doesn’t care what “the economy can withstand”.
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The fact is the bond market has quietly accepted the near zero returns for the last eight years. It’s had no choice. And that is because of government manipulation in the so-called free market. Whatever you may think, the governments of the world will step in to make sure that rates stay low. As you assert, one way will be for the government to print more money.
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Watch out here for gold and oil prices
#125 Polls R Phake on 01.16.17 at 2:12 pm
Every country (well almost) is in serious dire financial shape. The U.S. 20 trillion plus, one can only print money for so long, we have T2. How does one realistically escape what will happen within the next decade?
Anybody???
The world is immensely better than it was nine years ago. — Garth
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The cost of living is going through the roof and job prospects are nigh. HOW exactly is the world better? Because APPLE keeps giving us better Iphones?
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The Elite have figured out, why pay these tax farm slaves a wage when we can just issue them debt and lower their wages and job prospects. That way they collect the interest from these asset bubbles that ensue as well as pick the assets up 30 cents on the dollar when they inevitably crash. They also get the same level of economic activity if not greater before the crash comes. The ones that can’t dig themselves out become debt slaves as well as tax farm slaves.
Rinse. Repeat.
@ 102 Penny Henny @ 118 Shortymac
HI Penny, I will use comfree to get on MLS for sure , but I will not be putting the sign out front
Hi Shortymac, it is definitely NOT Jane and Finch. There are catches including , hopefully , the new owners will keep my very good long term tenants on the upper level 3 bedroom apartment. I want to provide the mortgage at bank rates to defer and spread out Cap Gains Taxes. It is around St.Clair and Winona, where they hold SALSA on St.Clair, it will not be over or under priced for the neighborhood, (still growing). Just want a smooth out , great street (dogs and cats all over), my house has pesky squirrel issues. I never realized how resilient the are. I think it will be a good sale for both parties and I will remain the next door neighbor. (That COULD be a catch I guess)
M46ON
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/torontos-condo-renters-feeling-burn-of-citys-red-hot-housing-market-181023145.html
rents, hydro, everything goes up. Get out of this sh..ty fa..ing place while you can.
You have been warned.
Property taxes along will bankrupt you.
have a friend living in new Telus gardens downtown vancouver…says ‘prices creeping up again’….
”1BR unit in my building at 467 square feet.
Asking price is $738K”
http://bcres.paragonrels.com/publink/default.aspx?GUID=191a74c8-99b1-4982-aca6-813e90e07f32&Report=Yes
#130 Braj on 01.16.17 at 3:26 pm
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2118093-global-sea-ice-is-at-lowest-level-ever-recorded/
Not that it matters..
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No…it does not matter because its phake govt science. Antarctica ice is actually at record levels of ice.
to wilE toronto #86
You don’t need a realtor! I sold my infill lot in Burl with comfree and coyote trickster magic :)
Seriously, do some research to arrive at fair market value and give it a whirl… I had a blast, learned a lot, got a great offer and was thrilled to be able to pass some of the 5% savings on to my buyer ( a small quality eco green Tarion builder).
I felt like it was a win win all around. I have a good real estate lawyer and land planner that were both invaluable to this process and was pleased to pay them for the value they brought to the transaction.
Not so much the real estate agents….interviewed a dozen and was astounded by the general lack of knowledge they had with respect to my situation. Nonetheless all felt highly qualifed to handle the listing.
I sold it myself and did better than all of them said could be done with respect to $ and terms.
It pays to understand your neighbourhood.
Onf51
On
Google property tax on a $500k house in Toronto, then do the same for a $500k in Timmins. Answer $3k per year in Toronto and 9k in Timmins. Bottom line is Toronto is being subsidized by the rest of Ontario. John Tory is black mailing Wynne and company with promised votes to get cash. 700m for transit this year and Toronto gets 500m. Gimme a break. Time for Torontonians to gracefully accept a 100% increase in property taxes and start paying for your own city upgrades. Wonder what your house will be worth when your tax bill is appropriately $15k per year for your $800k house, which is what we pay here in Timmins.
Re: #113 Rook on 01.16.17 at 11:31 am
The Chinese were the driving force (root cause) so take that out and the entire ponzi collapses. New rules out of China January 03 or 04 this year will change a lot of things for real estate worldwide (outside of China).
Tony,
I tend to agree they are the driving force, but Garth doesn’t. I’m curious why he thinks so despite such low inventory on rental and for sale.
@WileE Toronto
Interesting, I would get those squirrel problems solved before selling it. It could lead to terrible problems with the insulation and wiring.
Looks like the place would be wayyyyy out of our price range at 800k to 1 million plus if you believe the prices on realtor.ca. Do post the link whenever you do it however I would like to see it.
My husband and I would love to buy a place with a in-law suite/base apartment to rent out to our current roommates, who we know and don’t have to worry about random strangers. But we would need to afford it by ourselves so we don’t fall into the landlord trap.
Good luck!
Maybe a greater fool meetup
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17705541/213-BERING-Avenue-Toronto-Ontario-M8Z3A4-Islington-City-Centre-West
Compared to 1.6 this is a steal look at the lot the lot alone hasto be worth it…house is free and income too..near subway
https://www.olx.pt/anuncio/moradia-com-vista-panormica-IDz5WT9.html#ae5da62530
this is what you can buy in the azores….no pollution…clean living…cash in now ….retire now lol
Smoking man and Johnny Boy…..
Johnny Boy, you are right. OHLC stands for Open High Low Close….financial chart candle sticks. I use them for Forex, which the eminent Smokie opened my eyes to.
It’s okay Smoking Man, I’ll give you a pass for not getting the OHLC acronym, you must be hitting the JD hard and oblivious to the minutiae of shit right now….just the way I like ya. That’s when the gold nuggets get dropped, anyway.
@Bezengy, post #146:
Wow, 9 grand for taxes on a place with a market value of 500 grand in Timmins? That does seem excessive. On the bright side, keep in mind that for 500 grand you could buy a big, fancy house on a big piece of property in Timmins, a lot more than the puny condo or tool shed size house (like the one Bubbles lives in) you’ll get for that price in Toronto.
[…] of longtime housing bear Garth Turner. In his latest blog post, he wonders if we’re seeing the last gasp of the housing […]