The Trump Bump’s running out of gas lately. The Dow was poised to crash through the 20,000 mark before the new year, but still hasn’t made it. After the goofy billionaire’s wacky news conference this week, it’s further out of sight.
What does this mean to investing in 2017? Your TFSA or RRSP contribution? Should you go aggressive, or play it safe? Will it be a great year full of Trumpian hormonal excess, or are we witnessing a shaming of American democracy that’ll spank the stock-flipping cowboys? My answer in a moment.
So what’s going wrong?
In a few words, the Donald may be all hot air, or at least more bravado than actual, workable policies. Markets were expecting that presser on Wednesday to flesh out his stance on corporate tax cuts or infrastructure spending and instead we saw him fighting with a CNN reporter, refusing to set aside ownership of his business assets, and spending most of his time talking about Russia. (Who cares?)
What he did manage to do was destroy the stock values of big pharmas by announcing (out of the blue) the US government would be negotiating for lower prices on behalf of consumers. Yup – something you’d have expected from the lips of socialist Bernie Sanders, not a flaming capitalist like Trump. This is the kind of unwelcome surprise markets don’t want from the leader of the free world, like the Tweets threatening to tax the doors off carmakers shipping product from Mexico (now completely permissible under current trade deals).
The worry is what this guy might do to Canada, currently led by a tat-wearing, left-leaning, deficit-loving, weed-friendly kid who never started a company nor hired an employee. Not that should matter. But this is Trump. Remember what he did to that disabled NYT reporter? Little stuff gets him.
The point is that Canada’s vulnerable, since 70% of our exports go to the same place, and a large chunk of our manufacturing sector is dependent upon free access to US markets. Way back in the Mulroney days we cracked the American border with the Canada-US free trade deal, which later morphed into NAFTA, covering the continent. There’s no doubt Canada and Mexico have fared well under that umbrella. And it’s a fact Trump couldn’t care less about these two amigos.
This week a gaggle of economists lowered their growth projections for our economy based on the fear of Trump. Meanwhile there’s concern the orange-haired populist will push his jobs-for-America agenda into the energy business, encouraging more fracking and production by US producers, bringing energy self-sufficiency for the first time in decades. So what? A gush of US oil could inflate supplies again – the same recipe which gave us $27 oil last winter, heartache in Alberta and a recession in Canuckistan.
Sure, a lot of this is conjecture. But that’s what markets do. They price in what’s known with what’s expected. The Trump Bump that crashed bonds, ignited equities and sent the US dollar skyward since the election was based on the expectation of big spending, fat tax cuts, expansion, deregulation, growth and inflation. That goosed bond yields and helped spur the Fed to forecast three rate hikes this year. Also important is the fact Congress is now controlled by rightist Republicans, making any Trump Tweet or media conference brag more likely to turn into actual American policy. Obama never had that luxury. Few presidents do.
What next?
You should expect volatility. Buckets of it. We’ve just had the biggest market rally since Herbert Hoover was president. A decent year’s worth of gains came between November 8th and the beginning of 2017. What markets so feared and dissed (a Trump win) was then embraced as a pro-business, profit-happy speculative romp. It would be silly not to expect a pullback if he fails to deliver the bacon after ascending to his deity status next Friday in Washington.
This guy is the most unpredictable man ever to walk into the Oval Office. He wields a great deal of executive power. And he’s a social media addict, with thin skin and the disposition of a prize fighter. Nobody knows where this is headed, and since there are no heir apparent Democrats in the wings, the Trump years could extend until 2024.
There has never been a more powerful reason to have a balanced portfolio, simply because neither you, me nor the pooch have any clear idea of what’s coming. We know the US expansion is real and will continue, Trump or no Trump. That will support equities. But the return of protectionism could seriously screw up Canada, the efficient flow of money and labour around the world, and help destroy the free trade little nations like ours depend upon. In short, it’s a bad time to have a giant mortgage on an inflated house, or be a day trader in junior oil stocks.
Stick with the plan. Forty per cent in fixed income (most of that in preferreds and corporate bonds), with the rest in growth assets (equity-based assets and some quality REITs). ETFs remain the best choice, since you get broad diversification, low cost and avoid owning individual stocks a Donald Tweet could slaughter. Keep 20% of your portfolio is US$, since currency fluctuations could be large. Make sure your exposure is to rate-reset preferreds which will benefit from inflation and higher yields. Fill the TFSA first, always. Put the bonds in an RRSP. Don’t keep more than 5% in cash.
Build the portfolio correctly, then forget about it. That way you get more time to work on burying the school buses in your backyard.
158 comments ↓
first?
sorry, had to do it.
posted a bit late so here we go again:
#138 YOU PEOPLE ARE SOOO STUPID on 01.12.17 at 9:54 am
“Dear renters….enjoy your eviction/rent increases notices as we the landlords get wealthy beyond compare……….
Damn, you people are stupid!!”
It’s amazing how quickly you can learn the rules and regulations of the Residential Tenancy Act (where applicable) and things you discover while fighting illegal rent increases or illegal evictions. How quickly you become familiar with phone numbers of municipal building departments when you discover that the addition the landlord built was done without permit. How quickly you make friends at the municipal bylaws/complaints & enforcements when the landlord runs an illegal secondary suites. But one that beats them all is the CRA “snitch line”, just in case the landlord “forgot” to report all that rental income, or claimed expenses not related to the rental suite or if evicted tenants for the favourite “personal use of property” would need to comply with new rules for “change of use” that will have tax implications. Greed …… sometimes can lead to a life of headache.
#141 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 01.12.17 at 10:12 am
“The world has discovered Canada and Kelowna in particular” – lol I have never seen OK’s beaches so empty in the past two summers. Hotels could be head for a heavy discounted prices even within a week of long weekends. So much celebration in the mids of summer that the only Kokanee you could see was the dead ones washing up on the shores of Lake Country, Kelowna, Peachland… all the way to Penticton.
“Kelowna’s medical services are top notch.” – you mean 5 days spent in bed in a hallway of Kelowna’s hospital, subjected to constant annoying buzzing sounds while waiting for crucial operation? Situation only remedied when patient took a video of this conditions to local media?
“Kelowna IS a Four Seasons Playground.
A city that used to be “newly weds and nearly deads” Kelowna has changed dramatically as Mellinnials become the biggest cohort and move to Kelowna for the lifestyle and affordability and JOBS.”
You referring to the dreadlocked hair millennials that will come out of nowhere and surrounds you while you take a small nap on a beach, only to find out later that you wallet is gone? Jobs? – picking grapes for min wage or cleaning hotel bathrooms?
“Kelowna Real Estate is a relative bargain… for now, but that is changing FAST.” – yes it is changing fast. The OK’s RE has been slow since 2011, at least. Got worse in the past couple of yrs due to AB downturn. The only thing that went up was this year’s assessments. Yet properties that been sitting on the mrkt for months (some for yrs), still sitting at the same or lower prices. Some keep re-appearing after the listings expired.
Love anarchy and chaos
#179 For those about to flop… on 01.12.17 at 4:21 pm
“Hey Ogopogo,it seems strange to me if things are so good up in Kelowna that this generous person would take 155k off their asking price.
Now trying to sell it 173k below assessment.
There has been 17 listed price reductions in Kelowna in 2017.
Hey D.A…Cabbage Patch Clark says Vancouver is a world class city and to prove it we have internet now…
M42BC
309 Tanager DR, Kelowna
Dec 23:$1,050,000.00
Jan 7: $895,000.00
Change: – 155000.00 -15%
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDBOMUcxVg== ”
Not only do we have an internet but we can access gooooogle too:
http://globalnews.ca/news/2110935/kelowna-developer-allegedly-in-default-on-home-mortgage/
“reportedly valued at more than $1 million.” – article from 2015 – 2 yrs later can only fetch under $900K ?
Wow a well-known developer can’t make mortgage payments hmmmm must be really peachy in the Okanagan. How did it go? Things change …… ???? lololololol
I don’t believe much will change with Trump as the people behind the scenes are the exact same pushing for the exact same things.
If we do see changes, I’ll be surprised and proud of Trump for having the guts to do what he said! He’ll be the first one in the world.
*This guy is the most unpredictable man ever to walk into the Oval Office.*
On the contrary, I find him largely predictable. Don’t let his bravado and theatrics fool you. When it comes to serious business, he always does something sane and cool.
2017 – worse than 2016
It’s not so much Trump – it’s the masses that voted for him (and Brexit etc). Hell if I lived in the States I would have voted for him as well. The world is experiencing a precarious shift politically, economically, culturally and just about any other “ally” you can conjure up. People around the world are waking up to the reality that they have been and are being played by the political and corporate elites of the world and they are exhausted and fed up. we are constantly inundated with the harsh realities of terrorism, war and globalism. Even IF Trump was prevented from becoming head of the nuthouse – these global issues are not going away by any means. The events that have brought us to where we are today have set the world on a massive course of change – one which continues to develop and will for some time. Like it or not the world is on a path in which most of us will not like the end result.
The Heretic and Blasphemer can offer no excuse for their crimes. Those who are pardoned merely live to further shroud Humanity from the Light of the God Emperor Trump with the Darkness of their souls
Just how special is the Orange Octopus…
M42BC
https://howmuch.net/articles/billionaires-map
Kanye West 2020!
If Trump falters in his first mandate he might hand the reigns over to Ivanka.
She is guaranteed to get the swing vote.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xTqUEhWYsI
CONServatives(Republican) and Liberals(dems) hate their country and both are corporate puppets. Trump is owned by no one and vested interests try to defame him via the media who is nothing more then a mouth piece for the corporate elite who hate freedom and democracy. The elites also hate a strong middle class . Trump has expoaed many elite lies like so called free trade. THe elite can bad mouth him via their irrelevant media but Trump has trumped them by speaking directly to the people. Trump bring back well paying jobs to the US is a blow to evil and greedy elite.
“Canada’s vulnerable…this week a gaggle of economists lowered their growth projections for our economy based on the fear of Trump…”
But yeah, the BoC will raise rates. #not.
Your losing credibility there Garth with constant Trump bashing and sounding more like a bleeding heart liberal . The reporter you mention was not disabled get the facts straight .
Yeah, right. — Garth
Mr. Trump hasn’t even had his inauguration yet & already there are news headlines along the lines of ‘Trump appointees distance themselves’. Serious question: could Mr. Trump have actual mental health issues? I for one could believe he is seriously bipolar.
So the next serious question is: what if anything can be done if it is clearly shown that the POTUS has a serious mental health condition? Could a POTUS be forced to step down if there is reason to believe the POTUS is not medically fit for office? How long would that take & what would the fallout be? Hopefully not literal fallout as in the nuclear kind…..
“Instead we saw him fighting with a CNN reporter”
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Yes. A President with a backbone. Something we have not seen over the past 8 years.
BTW realtors are in an all out panic across Canada as sales have stalled and many are starving for money as they are on the brink of going bust. Trough times for you low lives. :) you can see the fear on greaterfool as realtors post day and night. What out of work losers! Suffer :)
Creepy video…Ill take the radiation thanks! Great post!
CNN fake news…Really ! He did the same for Ted Cruz and others also on YouTube . Whatever Trump does will be a huge improvement on Oboma
“The Dow was poised to crash through the 20,000 mark before the new year, but still hasn’t made it.”
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You will see The DOW shoot past the 20,000 mark tomorrow, after JPMorgan reports their quarterly earnings.
On Trump…
Never underestimate the damage that a man who over estimates himself can do.
How does a property tax assessor calculate the “value” of 42 underground school buses?
Remember what he did to that disabled NYT reporter?
Lie. Do fact check??
Or maybe just go for debt reduction like this hipster says in 1986.
http://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1503956833
In 1986 mortgages cost 11% and the stock market was a few months away from its greatest one-day decline. I was brilliant. — Garth
The Balanced Garth portfolio
Perhaps Garth could create a single balanced ETF that holds these assets in the proportions he favors. Job done. (But there would still be a need to the other financial advice and hand holding his firm provides. Speaking of the hand holding are the Amazons still available for that?)
Or perhaps there is and ETF (or, shudder, low-fee mutual fund) out there that is close enough?
The Russians did it I tells ya !
Wouldn’t it be great if someone like Jane Fonda came to Canada to lecture us on disappointing leadership?
Man, hot property is hard to watch, and not laugh.
“…and spending most of his time talking about Russia. (Who cares?)…”
I watched the entire thing. Before the questions, he spoke about a wife range of subjects, focusing largely on job creation. As soon as it came time for questions, the reporters started asking about Russia, Russian hackers, Putin, and other things related to the Buzzfeed lie about Trump hiring prostitutes to pee on a hotel bed (in Russia).
So in answer to your question: the MSM.
As for CNN, with the way they treated him both during and after the election, is it any wonder that he responds with such contempt? They have done nothing but openly try to hinder him from the start.
Trump’s behaviour as president is unprecedented but so is the utter disrespect with which this latest president is treated by the media.
“So what? A gush of US oil could inflate supplies again – the same recipe which gave us $27 oil last winter, heartache in Alberta…”
… and a rate cut by the BoC
DELETED
Why a % in US dollars($)?
Is this a hedge should the loonie tank into the 60 cent range or worse?
“… [neither] you, me nor the pooch have any clear idea of what’s coming.” – PrepperGT
#HarlanDid,Or… #PostApocalypticTelepathicDogs… #&OtherKinkyTalesOfSurvival…
https://youtu.be/lZ-y94pY_pY
@#157 Stock Picker
“The Spanish came to the same conclusion and marked their sea charts …. Aca Nada….meaning ‘there’s nothing here’. When the charts fell into the hands of the English Admiralty it was bastardized into Canada….”
********************************************
Wow! a whole new excuse for the name of our country….and one I’ve never heard.
Links? To your newly researched Spanish linga Canuckda….
Amazing. And here I thought Canada was a bastardization of Kanata …A native expression for “village”…..silly me.
http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/earth-sciences/geography/place-names/origins-geographical-names/9224&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwiV8pXX9b3RAhVEylQKHRHYD28QFgguMAQ&usg=AFQjCNH45Ph-uPomhR5G08G7J3GYFuLDXw
Well I guess the history books will have to be rewritten.
But since that “kanata” reference dates to 1535 and describe the location of a village at modern day Quebec City lets go back further to the FIRST VERIFIABLE explorers to reach present day Canada that arrived in what is now Port Royal, Nova Scotia in 1497( Samuel De Champlian) a mere 5 years after Columbus “discovered” America.
Nova Scotia originally called Le Acadie or “Land of Plenty” was then bastardized into Acadia after the Limeys booted all the French settlers out….all the way to French controlled Louisiana….twice….hence the “cajun” reference for Southern US folk that spoke french …they were originally “acadienne”… deported.
Next time your in Wolfeville check out the Acadian museum and church……
Who knew ‘stock pickers’ aka brokers ( the new form of financial rape and pillage) were so historically worldly………
Time for an elevator ride. I need to reset.
OK, should we Canucks hoard up on US $ if we’re planning on travelling to the US in 2017? Just wondering.
First
And he’s a social media addict, with thin skin and the disposition of a prize fighter. Nobody knows where this is headed, and since there are no heir apparent Democrats in the wings, the Trump years could extend until 2024.
====================
He is an attention whore with the attention span of a cocker spaniel in a field of rabbits.
Unless the Republicans can put a saddle and bridle on him, he will lose whatever competent cabinet members he has been able to recruit. The former head of Esso is not going to tolerate having his plans undone by a loose tweet. Wall Street is not going to tolerate inconsistent and damaging economic policies. Trade partners are not going to meekly submit to protectionism without retaliation and/or forming trade groups that exclude the US.
Trump supporters had reason to vote against Hillary and the status quo but they deluded themselves that he would grow into the job. I predict that he will have no credibility left by the beginning of 2018. The Democrats now have a wide open opportunity and desperate need to find a saviour before the 2018 midterm elections.
In my view, The Donald’s greatest vulnerability is to the Republican party. He won the election for them but if he embarasses them and threatens their future, they will find a way to deal with him. At the very least, he will give Congress a good reason to take back some of the executive powers they claim that Obama usurped.
Wouldn’t Corporates and Preferreds be the most sensitive to volatility? What about good ol’ bonds, are you implying holding less than 10%?
“May be” hot air?
Please.
Hearing duties coming to softwood exports from Canada.
This time will apply to all lumber products; Just not 2×4’s. Fencing products, Pallets, window frames, mouldings are all going to be affected.
What will boy T2 do? Lower loonie or hold a fundraiser on a private island?
Probably both.
But then Trumps no idiot. He will put quotas if Canada tries to lower loonie.
Looking at the increasing correlation among equity markets world wide, I’d say that diversification through etf indexing is going to prove to be a less effective strategy going forward.
The 60/40 etf portfolio has become the darling of financial advisors and is getting to be a pretty crowded traded. Everybody runs the same way at the same time…… expect lots of big moves.
Post #12
Bingo!
Truth award for the week.
#8 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Field HQ on 01.12.17 at 7:05 pm
The Heretic and Blasphemer can offer no excuse for their crimes. Those who are pardoned merely live to further shroud Humanity from the Light of the God Emperor Trump with the Darkness of their souls
—
Smoking Man Jr?
Warning the Icarus Trade is coming and a meltdown in the markets in 2017, of course it will be Trump’s fault and The Russian hackers
”Build the portfolio correctly, then forget about it. That way you get more time to work on burying the school buses in your backyard.”
Wow. What a waste of life that would be. Not a great legacy to leave behind.
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#28 Goldie
”Trump’s behaviour as president is unprecedented but so is the utter disrespect with which this latest president is treated by the media.”
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So true. This election showed how extremely biased the media were. It was disgusting to watch. The only outlet that showed any class was Fox, except for one reporter and I hear she has recently quit and going elsewhere. She was giving Fox a bad name imho.
God I love trump. He brow beat those media shills. And now he going to upset the stupid economic order and reset it all right.
Canada will be hurt but we need to grow up. Its time we stopped relying on the americans to protect us and just dumping commodities over the border.
Interesting to see Prince invested only in hard assets no stocks or bonds
paper promises . Genius musician and smart investor liked his gold
#14 here is your backup
Garth should do better.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueCdV_wCVrc
Why bonds in RRSP? Is there an advantage vs. TFSA?
” Meanwhile there’s concern the orange-haired populist will push his jobs-for-America agenda into the energy business, encouraging more fracking and production by US producers, bringing energy self-sufficiency for the first time in decades.”
He may try, but fracking companies have learnt their lesson not to mess with oil-drenched Saudis and Ayotullahs. They can play “run to the bottom” game much better than clueless yanks!!
Quite frankly, the entire election was fraudulent, and I think another national election should be held. Comey from the FBI was wrong to leak the Clinton email stuff at the time he did, and keep the rumors of hacking and misbehavior and Russian connections about Trump hidden was wrong. All this skewed the election, and now the US and the rest of the world gets to enjoy this fiasco. Lucky all of us.
#2 free entertainment to be had on 01.12.17 at 6:43 pm…
While I am no fan of the self-proclaimed golden god of Okanagan/Shuswap real estate, your exaggerated comment warrants a reply.
Beaches empty? Not near our latest digs – every day we headed for Gyro it was packed. Nor was any beach we went to in the last two years ‘uncrowded’.
The summer was as busy throughout the area as any year we’ve seen. Same traffic jams on Harvey, same standing room only at downtown events.
KGH? I was literally saved from an agonizing death at the Kelowna hospital in 2015, I agree it was over-crowded but the service was still exceptional.
BTW there is ‘annoying’ buzzing sounds in every area of a hospital, especially in ICU, but it still beats being dead!
You sound like you’ve had some bad experiences in Kelowna, I would love to share my comparisons to really dangerous parts of the world.
Actually, in defence of the GG, real estate prices have gone up in the last year. We saw it all around us in the Lower Mission, and other areas of the city.
Not to say Kelowna RE isn’t fragile, but let’s not allow bitterness to cloud reality.
Apparently by your other posts you seem to be totally unaware of the story of Mark Consiglio, maybe it’s time to upgrade your google search skills?
To those who say Trump did not mock a disabled reporter, give your head a shake……do some research and stop embarrassing yourself further.
That way you get more time to work on burying the school buses in your backyard.
—
One of your fellow preppers?
Who cares about stock market fundamentals, the only one that will matter is money from bonds going into stocks, just like mid 80’s when the stock market doubled.
But every day we’ll hear from MSM that the stock market is over valued based on this and that.
Just plug your ears and buy individual stocks to hit that life changing grand slam.
Trump’s first news conference was priceless.
When asked civil questions about policy , he answered honestly and clearly. When presented with dumb questions by dumber reporters, he responded appropriately.
The disrespect from the CNN reporter was pathetic.
No reporter has the ‘right to ask a question of the president of the US.
Especially the fake news CNN.
Trump dressed him down and it was a thing of beauty.
There are many other reporters and news agencies that can ask tough questions on tough issues, and Trump will be fully within his rights to ignore the likes of CNN and the Washington Post.
Hopefully the rest of the US viewers will do the same.
While the press used to play a useful role in holding politicians of all stripes accountable, the MSM in the US has instead decided to blatantly pick a side, and they have abrogated this role. So they deserve to be treated as the biased orgnizations that they are.
The MSM made more of an attempt to infuence the outcome of the election than any outside force.
Happy to see Trump recognize this and treat them with the contempt they deserve.
Much like CBC and CTV in Canada have done so by championing Junior and his band of regressive idiots.
Love the see Trump put the fool Mansbridge in his place for asking inane questions that 95% of Canadians could care less about.
Mansbridge: President Trump, tell Canadians how you are in touch with your feminist side?
No Garth, in 2009-10 Obama had a fully democratic congress too. He just chose to blow all his political capital on Obamacare (without bulk drug purchases as a payoff to pharma) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/111th_United_States_Congress .
I’m also surprised you failed to connect trumps proposition to have 80+ million americans (Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries) get prescription drugs at bulk prices with Canada’s future drug prices and declining access. Our complacent little country is in for a rough ride of spiking health care costs (and / or drying up supply of new medications) should this plan go forward. We were always on a knife’s edge with this though few pay much attention to where global pharma profits come from. Watch for those T2 debts and provincial transfer requests to soar even higher. If only we could develop our drugs and have our own bayh-dole law to promote r+d locally. Hah! We’re too busy looking down on americans to do something truly innovative and self reliant.
The trouble – as you say – is that no one really knows if he’ll actually do anything he said. So who cares what the market predicts short term? All we can do is diversify and have an exit strategy from Soviet canuckistan if you have the means. Maybe Obama will target canuck immigrants in the next 8 days so think global…
The people who elected Trump didn’t vote for those. They have experienced their consequences in globalism, and voted for the man who promised to reverse them. They would have elected Hillary if they had been happy with their lot.
“What he did manage to do was destroy the stock values of big pharmas by announcing (out of the blue) the US government would be negotiating for lower prices on behalf of consumers.”
So how does this play into the new PEOTUS plan? Confused.
https://www.google.ca/amp/attn-google-amp.herokuapp.com/stories/14214/senate-rejects-bernie-sanders-drug-pricing-amendment?client=safari
Facts? They seem pretty blurred these days and not what many are willing or want to hear. Made me think of…
http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/trth.gif
Good post.
#53 Okanagan Man on 01.12.17 at 9:30 pm
———————————————
OK so here’s a little research.
Took me aout 3 minutes.
In fact Trump has made the same gestures and movements during many speeches when he mocks others.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CsaB3ynIZH4
Remember too, the disabled reporter does not wave his arms around as Trump does.
His condition called arthrogryposis, does not involve waiving his hands around in jerky movements as Trump did, and has done many time when mocking others.
https://www.catholics4trump.com/the-true-story-donald-trump-did-not-mock-a-reporters-disability/
So if you actually do a little research its pretty easy to suggest that Trump was not mocking the reporters disability, but just mocking him in the same way he has mocked others in the past.
But if you believe that Trump is the devil incarnate, and that the reporting of the mainstream media is honest and fair, then of course you must believe that Trump would mock a disabled person.
But don’t claim to be objective and look all the evidence.
I mean how could Merly Streep be wrong?
Pathetic. — Garth
#34 Crowded EF….you chose to google the Liberal governments desperate ideological trap of the country being like a 1970’s Pepsi commercial about a ‘one world village’. ….with hippies dancing in a circle on a hilltop…all politically correct lies.
They just made that shit up and hired a loyal civil servant to ‘discover’ the narrative. Way too much Liberal LSD injected into the Canadian story. Don’t forget that under Pierre Trudeau they stopped teaching Canadian history in schools in order to push the globalist multi cultural meme….and stopped flying Canada’s flag on any public buildings in order to quash what had been a nation of proud citizens…..too proud for the Liberals who had a different political agenda. They really tried to make the English” invasion ” disappear.
Harper tried to revive Canadian nationalism and started commemorating our history with reenanactments. But he wasn’t perfect either with his gagging all information in the same way as the Liberals had done before him.
We don’t know what what the truth when dealing with activist pols…
Ada Nada is the story I’m going with…it is very understandable that the Spanish explorers came to chart the east coast and found nothing commercially viable so the first captains wrote “Aca Nada” on the charts …meaning there was nothing they could exploit. It’s not an insult to us now….it was the observation of a man on a defined mission. When the charts fell into the hands of the British the inscription was mistranslated.
This idea of European being invited into the ‘village’ by Happy natives is laughable. The natives fought each other viciously for thousands of years over their territory…they didn’t just invite these carpetbaggers to the village for tea to get down on their knees to the great white masters…that ideas insane.
“A gush of US oil could inflate supplies again – the same recipe which gave us $27 oil last winter, heartache in Alberta and a recession in Canuckistan.”
$27 oil… Not until after Saudi Aramco IPO.
100 billion smackers at stake. JP Morgan rules!
You should expect volatility. Buckets of it.
————————————————————
Look on the bright side, such volatility could create buying opportunities for some assets.
The condo king got out hustled by the developer. Priceless
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/rennie-marketing-systems-sues-vancouver-real-estate-developer-and-multi-billion-dollar-pension-funds-for-unpaid-fees
Oh Great Oracle of Ottawa
I have liquidated the gold mines and greadily devoured ETF’s in the quest for balance, growth and security.
I have stuffed the TFSA and opened self directed for the kids.
I have loaded up on Riet’s, preferd’s and other dividend paying ETF’s but today as I tally the fat dividend returns
I noticed something below the Stock description.
NON-RES TAX WITHHELD!
What the.. What the heck did I do wrong. Help Garth! sweating in this Edmonton weather can be fatal this time of year.
I looked it up on line but i’s confused.
Thanks in advance!!
Garth starts to sound like a sour grape Democrat.
Scary. Hope he won’t need safe space any time soon.
The post is not about your hero, but rather the impact on markets. If you missed that, find another blog. — Garth
#37 Andrew Woburn on 01.12.17 at 8:29 pm
your remark about his attention span was spot on!
Garth I have to say your comment on the biggest stock market run up since Hoover is a sobering thought.
I trust there wont be a repeat of the great depression under trumps auspices.
1) If Trump makes nice with Russia, he can threaten to back out of military alignment with Saudi Arabia, such that the latter can’t afford another OPEC race to the bottom. Russia and US would service different oil markets. Russia benefits from higher oil prices and fewer sanctions while not reining in Iran. US grows jobs and has a price that supports fracking while becoming an oil exporting nation. What takes the piss out of the Saudis is the looming achievement of an Iranian nuclear bomb.
2) Trade partners can retaliate but at what cost to them? You overestimate the GOP if you think they will threaten their individual political futures by defying him. And for what it’s worth, Trump’s tweets pretty consistently hurt conservative political enemies, so no one really cares (e.g. pharma helped build ACA…, MSM)
3) Fraudulent Election – how about having voter ID laws which keep out the illegals and see what the vote totals would look like then? We already got a small flavor of that in the recount in Detroit (http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2016/12/18/detroit-ballots-vote-recount-election-stein/95570866/ . Or what about Comey’s original false requirement for ‘intent’ in 18 USC 793 f (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/793) which allowed Hillary to skate? If anything, I think the dissemination of the utterly nonsensical Russian dossier before the election would have helped Trump even further, laying bare the sheer magnitude of journalistic malpractice.
#49
>>Why bonds in RRSP? Is there an advantage vs. TFSA?
I think the rationale is that you want growing assets to go into TFSA first, since you can withdraw them 100% tax free.
Remember, RSP is a tax deferral tool; you’ll eventually have to pay the tax. Since stocks grow more than bonds (over time) it would make sense to allocate the bonds to RSP.
My 2 cents
Garth no matter what you say about Trump, and brag the success of your business partners, none of them hold a candle compared to the Donald’s mega success
10B and still going strong
You people are beyond weird. — Garth
Billionaire George Soros Lost Nearly $1 Billion in Weeks After Trump Election
http://www.businessinsider.com/george-soros-lost-1-billion-after-trump-election-2017-1
As I watch the debate about real estate and markets. Opinions flying high on here.
I discovered something amazing today.
Humans crossing diagonally to the fast moving herd coming at them from a 90 degree angle.
Was downtown for a useless meeting. Felling like a coffee. I’m at the RBC south tower going down the escalator toward Starbucks. The herd is moving fast in a race to get to there meaningless desks.
I notice a shy man, frightened of everything crossing there path. They have no respect for him. He’s got to didge and weave the animals ready to run him over.
Then another dude, oblivious to every thing around him. Direct brisk walk to the fairy serving coffee. The Hurd adjusts their beeline and moves to right and to the left to avoid confrontation with the alpha.
Amazing.
Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics
#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.12.17 at 7:46 pm
How does a property tax assessor calculate the “value” of 42 underground school buses?
**************
Depends how much weed you are growing in each bus. OH… you mean live in a bus underground?
@#2 free entertainment to be had on 01.12.17 at 6:43 pm
Thanks for dealing with STOOPID. You gave that realtor, slum lord something to deal with. Health inspector is another good angle.
As for Devil’s Advocate…he obviously forgot to take the two pink pills this morning. Took him back to 2012/13 in the glory days of Kelowna real estate with are the oil workers.
He missed the sharp increase in the unemployment rate in every region except Victoria and Victoria where the last of the development is happening. In Victoria they are building condo’s/office space. Soon to be some boarded up – half finished projects.
Next?
_______________________
No next! This is it, it started, … the “Year of Trump”, this 2017!
Have a close look at the membership of the PEOTUS’s “Strategic and Policy Forum”:
President-elect Trump Establishes the President’s Strategic and Policy Forum
https://www.blackstone.com/media/press-releases/article/president-elect-trump-establishes-the-president-s-strategic-and-policy-forum
… it appears that Corporate America has fully swung to Trump’s side!
F.S. – Comox, BC.
Vancouver Is Now Scanning To Find Homes That Suck Energy
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/01/12/vancouver-heat-scan_n_14136436.html
And that probably is the only reason that the BC government would scan homes for heat output right? To provide an important service for the homeowner? They would never use such technology for say…the Empty Homes Tax would they? Nah, didn’t think so.
Pretty interesting comments this time. I agree with not1st. The USA was heading off a cliff. They have every right to save themselves.
No one knows the future but I’ve made my bets. Don’t gamble anything you’ll regret losing.
Do you think you’ve got all your based covered, Garth?
meant to say “Victoria and Vancouver”
#38 buddy o pal
“Wouldn’t Corporates and Preferreds be the most sensitive to volatility?”
If you are talking about high yield bonds the answer – in theory anyway – is no. High yield bonds are already in the gutter so they have way less sensitivity to rate hikes. The rest of the theory is something like this: when the spread between the high yield corporates and the long bond reaches a certain point, then buy high yield bonds. I forget what the spread is – it’s probably a range, but you can find this out easily enough. By the way, Gordie Pape agrees that adding to your high yield bond allocation this year is not a bad idea. See his article in the G&M today.
I said nothing about high-yield debt. — Garth
#56 AB Boxter
Agreed.
Well, I was checking the weather report to see if there was any Pink Snow falling in Richmond, and I came across this little case of delusion.
The house at 12133 No3 Rd. is assessed for less than 6 million dollars on a hot,sunny July afternoon,and they have it on the market for ,drumroll ….26 million dollars.
What’s 20 million between friends…
M42BC
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1VzlCVg==
You’re calling our 45 year old PM a kid?
Twittler is an immature, old fart.
Which would you rather have for PM? A mature, sharp-minded 45-year old or an expired selfish deranged dinosaur?
#83 Maj on 01.12.17 at 11:19 pm
You’re calling our 45 year old PM a kid?
Twittler is an immature, old fart.
Which would you rather have for PM? A mature, sharp-minded 45-year old or an expired selfish deranged dinosaur?
//////////////////////////
The Metrosexual Messiah could switch places with Ben Mulroney and host etalk and it wouldn’t change much…
M42BC
Money Going From Bonds to Stocks? Really?
#55 Ole Doberman on 01.12.17 at 9:48 pm said:
Who cares about stock market fundamentals, the only one that will matter is money from bonds going into stocks, just like mid 80’s when the stock market doubled.
****************************************
So “A” sells his $100k bond to “B” for $100k.
“A” puts the proceed into stocks buying $100k stocks from “C”.
Where does “B” get the money to buy the bond from “A”?
Where will “C” put the proceeds form the $100k stock he sold?
How much money in the net has “left” the bond market? (Not a cent?)
How much new money in the net has entered the stock market? (Could it be perhaps precisely diddley?)
Who cares about fundamentals?
#55 Ole Doberman on 01.12.17 at 9:48 pm said:
Who cares about stock market fundamentals, the only one that will matter is money from bonds going into stocks, just like mid 80’s when the stock market doubled.
**************************************
I was just reviewing that history today…
In 1987 the DOW surged 44% before having a big crash in October. Fundamentals were ignored.
Warren Buffett sold all his stocks except three where he had basically vowed to keep them forever (Washington Post, Capital Cities and GEICO).
After the crash Buffett had much cash for bargains.
Buffett has invested on fundamentals for over 60 years and is the world’s most successful investor. But what does he know?
(Always assume that Buffett is correct.)
Trump will be President until 2032. Ivanka Trump will be the first female president in 2024. I love Trump taking on the media and the Globalists, I could watch his press conferences all day.
I mean,why just pick on one greedy homeowner when you can pair them up so they are not so lonely.
Assessed at roughly 4 million.
On the market for a rough 20 million…
M42BC
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1Vzk5RQ==
The US stock market is a giant Lie. And, look at this messed up bull-crap.. Average price of home sales in Calgary up 7% YOY and listings dead. Rising house prices are bad for the economy. Leaves many with no money to spend at Sears. Even with a mass exodus from Alberta and high unemployment people are lining up to buy. Even saw one listing sell above asking near us despite two more foreclosures in our hood. NUTSO
Actually, the RRSP is a TAX Avoidance vehicle. AVOIDANCE
#70 MDQ on 01.12.17 at 10:41 pm said:
Remember, RSP is a tax deferral tool; you’ll eventually have to pay the tax. Since stocks grow more than bonds (over time) it would make sense to allocate the bonds to RSP.
My 2 cents
****************************************
Costly advice. It has been covered here before that if the marginal tax rate is constant than the RRSP wealth grows precisely equal to a TFSA, ergo the tax is ZERO.
What happens is:
You put in 10k and get a 4k refund. (40% marginal tax rate assumed)
In affect YOU paid only 6k into the RRSP and the government paid 4k. The government is a 40% partner in “your ” RRSP. Yes, you are poorer than you think.
Years later it has gown to $100k. You take it out over the years and pay $40k tax. (assumes 40% marginal tax rate still applies) Your 60% share, your original 6k has grown COMPLETELY tax free to $60k.
The tax is, in substance, just the government taking back its original 40% share. This is the SUBSTANCE of the matter.
It does not work out so nicely if the marginal tax rate is higher upon withdrawal. Sometimes it is lower meaning the RRSP is a negative tax vehicle.
Look, the TFSA is great, but so is the RRSP and those who think it merely defers tax are dead wrong and poorer for it.
Since the government is ultimately likely to get about 40% of “my” RRSP (fair as it contributed about 40%) then my approach is simply to grow the RRSP as large as possible. My RRSP started in 1989 and every $1.00 contributed is now worth $8.82. The weighted average investment period is 18 years. It’s been mostly equities but also some preferred shares ans cash at times. No bonds.
Sadly, the government will ultimately collect about $3.53 of the $8.82 (assuming no further growth). I will get net $5.29. But each $1.00 contributed only cost me about 60 cents net of refund. It’s all worked out pretty well for me.
trumps about CF guys…Oh, CF means cash flow.
great post garth!
cg!
I was writing a diatribe, deleted it myself.
Thank god Trump was elected. His presidency has been more interesting than everything that has happened since Regan, and the man has not been inaugurated yet. Hot Damn!
“#29 Goldie on 01.12.17 at 8:00 pm
“…and spending most of his time talking about Russia. (Who cares?)…”
I watched the entire thing. Before the questions, he spoke about a wife range of subjects, focusing largely on job creation. As soon as it came time for questions, the reporters started asking about Russia, Russian hackers, Putin, and other things related to the Buzzfeed lie about Trump hiring prostitutes to pee on a hotel bed (in Russia).”
I saw the whole thing as well and I agree that most reporters did not ask him any questions about policy and were fixated on the whole Russia thing. So Trump can’t be blamed for not providing substance since he wasn’t asked for any. On the other hand he burned a lot of time having his lawyer blab on about his business arrangements and whatever was in that stupid pile of envelopes that he brought with him (that nobody was allowed to see the contents of). So both parties are to blame for what was a fairly useless conference.
Blogs like this will make America hit Canada harder on trade issues.
Blog entries such as this sends Trump the message that Canada is their enemy. Furthermore, T2 considers China closer. China; a true communist country.
Now who are the deceitful here?
#83 Maj…you’re not serious? Junior has proven himself time and again as not only incompetant but dangerously flawed…politically and personally…there are incidents of conflict and corruption snowballing around himself and his government….it’s almost daily…even the mouthpiece CBC is at a loss to contain it…a narcissist, Peter Pen syndrome ( minister of youth…..really)…and on and on ad
Canada would be blessed with someone half Trumps ability……and Mr Huggy isn’t it. We needs jobs and industry not back talk from a someone who hides his location every time he wants a yacht ride from a rich guy.
”In 1986 mortgages cost 11% and the stock market was a few months away from its greatest one-day decline. I was brilliant. — Garth”
—————————————————————
I remember this like it was yesterday. The Dow closed on Friday, Oct. 16th at 2246. The following Monday it dropped 22.6% to 1738 trimming 574 billion dollars off the market value. It was down 36% from its all time high in August. Previous to that, the worst one day drop was 12.8% on Oct. 28, 1929.
On Friday the 16th the TSE closed at 3598 down 9.5% that week. This was just 1.3% higher than at Dec. 31st, 1986. On Monday the TSE dropped 11.3% and tuesday a further 6.9%. It closed the week at 3018. Down 580 points from previous Friday close.
What had been gained in the last year was given up in two or 3 weeks. In the U.S. trading volumes were 4 to 5 times higher than normal and it was taking over 3 days to determine if the stocks had even been sold as the systems were so plugged up. It was said that people were so afraid they refused to watch the news. A lot of them had never seen a bear market.
John Ing, Pres. of Maison Placements Canada Inc. stated “The churches and synagogues will be full. And Canada Savings Bonds are going to be very popular.”
The 1987 Canada Savings Bond issue was paying 9%.
The bank rate dropped from 9.83 on the 19th to 8.26 on the 23rd.
Central banks were moving to cut rates and investment advisors were recommending long term bonds. Quite different than what is being recommended at this time.
Three or four weeks before, the Bank Credit Analyst had predicted a crash to occur in October. With that in mind I cashed out in the third week of September and actually ended up in the positive that year. I was back in the following January.
Note: the above info was picked from The Financial Post Oct. 19 – 25th/87 issue and the Financial Times Oct. 26/87 issue.
#61
Garth – Pathetic
——————————–
I have never been a huge Trump fan and when this story came out initially I was shocked.
But the last 6 months of the election was highly enlightening about the state of media in the US and Canada.
To believe that the press is unbiased is now a fool’s game.
It used to be that we trusted those in the media.
No more.
The recent elections (and very recent Buzzfeed crap) just shows how far they have fallen.
Yet anyone looking a little deeper into the story can find other viewpoints.
Did Trump mock the reporter?
Anyone that hates Trump is absolutely sure of it – because they hate Trump. ‘Trump is the devil’
Anyone that loves Trump denies it -because they love Trump ‘Trump will save us all’
The rest have to look for the facts somewhere other than blind hatred or blind following.
The record shows that Trump uses the gestures to mock others he disagrees with. If there are other facts that indicate that Trump has a history of mocking or intolerance to disabled people, then I would be happy to consider them in my judgement of this issue.
One may not particularly like Trump, but one one not have to believe every piece of trash that is written about him.
When I was younger, my actual mom warned me of alcohol and smokes (to no avail) saying they were bad for me. She was probably right but the government increased the taxes a lot.
Now, we have the carbon tax, which my new even more abusive mom (Nutley) thinks she can use to ward me off heating and lighting my home and driving my son to soccer.
I think what Nutley intends to do is drive us all off the internet (mostly carbon powered) so she can live in a well heated house herself while everybody else lives in Tee-pees and is happy somehow about it.
I’ll be getting that solar powered house that stays warm in the winter when Nutley does so. What we have here instead is an elected leader who thinks we should all starve in the dark so long as she gets what she won’t allow the rest of us to have. Trump riots on inauguration day? In Alberta that should already be underway. It’s just not our way to use protests. Nutley has herself made it inevitable that Wild Rose will win next time and everything she’s trying to do will be undone in one session.
I always wondered what the term Ugly American meant. Seems clear to me now that it is a generalization of a certain type of person and if I’m not wrong, I think that they would probably be Trump supporters. You’ve all seen them, these Ugly Americans, stateside or abroad. Brash, opinionated and woefully ignorant at the same time, thinking that their religion or their heritage or their luck at being born in a first world country entitles them somehow. Now, when I think of the term Ugly Americans, I will forever see in my mind’s eye, thousands of mouth breathers chanting slogan’s like ‘lock her up’ and ‘build that wall’. I always knew that there were Ugly Americans, I just did not know that there were so many ugly Canadians as well. Judging from some of the comments, there are many who think that Trump is a saviour of sorts, a genius maverick or to be admired somehow. How a Canadian could get behind Trump is beyond me. But then the masses frequently do things that are against their best interests. Case in point, Hitler. He was bonafide looney tunes and look what happened there. Trump rolled out of the same factory. The evidence is overwhelming that he is a total nutter but, still people want to follow. To believe somehow that he will fix everything when he is only capable of destroying. Watch the economy implode. Watch his presidency implode. For now, FOX News and Kellyann Con-a-way seem to be doing a bang up job disseminating propaganda and many are swayed and willing to swallow it cause Jesus is coming or America is going to be great again. Trump is an abomination, and if you don’t believe this then there’s no hope for you, get in line and…chant the party line, chant and swallow, chant and swallow.
My first thought on the school busses was ‘this is the work of the guy with the bulldozer, IHCTD9’. But the guy in the video is too old.
But seriously, I am going to drain my full portfolio at once, while cash is still viable and pay the tuition at a medical school to get a license to physically turn boys into girls.
That is the only growth industry in Canada now.
What does this mean to investing in 2017? Your TFSA or RRSP contribution? Should you go aggressive, or play it safe? – Garth
It means absolutely nothing, the last thing you should do is to invest by trying to guess what the markets are going to do.
That being said the stock market is rather expensive right now (according to historic norms) and a pause is welcome. Yet bonds are much worse, they are still outrageously expensive and compare to that stocks seem quite reasonable. Go figure..
@Ronaldo
While you are doing your part to conserve resources, Al Gore is living in a 22,000 sq foot mansion, and Leo is arriving in Monaco to pick up an ‘environmental award’ in his Saudi pal’s 500 foot yacht.
Sucker!
: )
(Actually, my Scottish heritage has me genetically opposed to waste, so I do my part as well, even though the hypocritical Hollywood elites really tempt me to do otherwise)
Trump is of course up against a massive establishment with far more power and influence than he can possibly muster.
The establishment has media fighting their battles for them, and useful idiots following along as they always do.
So I am skeptical Trump will be able to change much, which should make the namby pamby half of the general public happy.
He’ll end his 8 years with a federal debt around 30 trillion, and President Ivanka and VP Kanye will take that up to 40t in their term.
That’s about when things should really get ugly.
I was secretly (and shamelessly) hoping Hillary would get in so she could take the blame and speed up the inevitable disaster by a few years.
Better to get this over with sooner, so we can start the rebuild.
But, miracles do happen, Trump proved that already, so I give him a 10% chance of succeeding. Going to be very interesting to watch, regardless. Got to give the yanks kudos for being willing to take the risk. My fellow Canucks would never have the balls.
#67 four winds on 01.12.17 at 10:26 pm
Garth starts to sound like a sour grape Democrat.
Scary. Hope he won’t need safe space any time soon.
The post is not about your hero, but rather the impact on markets. If you missed that, find another blog. — Garth
—–
How is analyzing the impact of the new presidency on markets based on reading the tea leafs of “goofiness”, a “wacky press conference” and other “conjectures” better than picking stocks, timing the market, etc.?
It’s like the “science” of Kremlinology.
Trumpocalypse Begins in 7 Days
But Justin says he will stand up to Trump in the name of his own values:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-trump-feminism-immigration-muslim-1.3933742
Canada is so screwed.
Small consolation – the world will be ending anyway………
Hey Turner using WaPo as a source for news is a joke. They slant everything to the left and they are not a useful news source. Come and live down here for a while.
https://www.catholics4trump.com/the-true-story-donald-trump-did-not-mock-a-reporters-disability/
#177 Samantha
Well, I live in Europe.
Allow me to know it better than you.
Europe has 20 times the economy and 15 times the population of Canada. On much smaller space.
To translate the city dynamics and specifics universally across continents and out of context is stupid and unfair. Not that a real estate agent would know what smart and fair is.
You simply can’t compare GTA to the big European cities. Quality of life, transport, education, lifestyle, everything is different.
Compare it to Minneapolis/St Paul. Not even Miami. Check the prices there first.
And quit that ‘great education’, ‘great transport’, ‘low crime’ non-sense.
A typical GTA condo (small, cold, noisy, glass) with its Maintenance fee + property taxes, that will require major renovation in 10 years and replacement of the whole kitchen in 5, with lifetime of the building of 50 years can’t compare with the brick apartment buildings in Vienna that have no maintenance, very small property taxes and will survive centuries.
As for lifestyle: Vienna: perfect transportation, free university education, no crime, check their prices.
Picking Vienna as the voted number one city to live in the last few years in the world.
I also never saw basement dwellers there. Speaks volumes on the intelligence of the populace.
@#62 Stock Picker
“Ada Nada is the story I’m going with…..”
********************************************
And its quite a delusional , long winded story at that..
I ask again,
Links? Proof?Anything?
Other than your bizarre version of “history”?
#177 Samantha
Another example:
A solid beautiful brick detached house in suburb of Frankfurt, 20 min by train in rush hour from the city central station for 320 k Euro. 470 k CAD.
Frankfurt, the financial capital of Europe.
Compare that with corn-flake semi in the great neighborhood on Britannia road in Mississauga or in Brampton ‘going’ for 650 k + CAD. Bought by a person with 50 k income, wife not working and 3 kids.
(there goes another ‘prudent lending’ non-sense)
So with he great GTA transportation how much will it take to get from Britannia Road in Mississauga to downtown Toronto in rush hour? 1.5 h if lucky.
Donald Trump will be ravaged mercilessly by the mainstream press.
Donald Trump will eventually hunker down and avoid all difficult questions from the mainstream press.
Good luck with that.
All Donald Trump’s dirty laundry will be revealed.
Donald Trump wont last the entire 4 years.
His wife will divorce him during office OR more tellingly he will divorce her. Time for a 5th wife.
He’ll resign in disgrace or be impeached.
And once he’s completely gutted the US economy with trade sanctions and threats of retaliation with China
Even the Unemplorables will be happy to see him gone.
I predict that cooler heads will prevail in the Republican party, and he will be ousted by the party for the sake of the party. Perhaps in time for the mid-term elections.
Article 25.4 – simply being unfit for the presidency. Not enough people are speaking about Trump’s mental illnesses, but they will. There’s something wrong with him.
They will then adjust lots of Trump appointments and staffers.
They’ll give the reigns to Pence, who will not execute on his extreme views…it will be a standard conservative policy.
This will put the Republicans in a pretty strong place for re-election, even if its not Pence running in 2020.
Democrats need to groom their heir apparent real soon!.
Amen to the balanced portfolio. I followed your “Millennial portfolio” all year and my return for 2016 was roughly 8.5%. Thank you, Garth!
#71 Trey on 01.12.17 at 10:48 pm
Garth no matter what you say about Trump, and brag the success of your business partners, none of them hold a candle compared to the Donald’s mega success
10B and still going strong
You people are beyond weird. — Garth
——————————————————–
It’s 100% true. No disrespect, you are a successful man in your own right and this blog rocks – but Turner Investments net worth wouldn’t even be on the map compared to the Trumpinators.
Also look at his wealth in terms of kids and family – he’s been pumping them out like a Mormon.
And finally, sheesh, he just won the biggest job in the world by being rude, crude and charismatic – who else can pull stuff off like this.
Gods’ divine hand is favoring The Donald.
This is not about the accumulation of wealth. That is no measure of humanity. No amount of money can excuse anyone who mocks, ridicules, demeans or bullies others in public. These are classless, arrogant acts. Money cannot paper over disrespect. — Garth
#73 Smoking Man on 01.12.17 at 10:52 pm
As I watch the debate about real estate and markets. Opinions flying high on here.
I discovered something amazing today.
Humans crossing diagonally to the fast moving herd coming at them from a 90 degree angle.
Was downtown for a useless meeting. Felling like a coffee. I’m at the RBC south tower going down the escalator toward Starbucks. The herd is moving fast in a race to get to there meaningless desks.
I notice a shy man, frightened of everything crossing there path. They have no respect for him. He’s got to didge and weave the animals ready to run him over.
Then another dude, oblivious to every thing around him. Direct brisk walk to the fairy serving coffee. The Hurd adjusts their beeline and moves to right and to the left to avoid confrontation with the alpha.
Amazing.
Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics
——————————————————-
What the hell are you doing downtown? There are no casinos there. Did your Casino run out of wine? What no more postings from the edge of life? You’ve simply discovered all this about humans now, where have you been all of your life man?
Next? You Ask
How about WW3 globalists last chance to hold onto power.
https://therealstrategy.com/is-this-the-coup-in-america-us-troops-on-russian-border-to-start-war-before-inauguration/
sharp-minded 45-year old .
………..
Sharp ???
He is likely the lowest iq pm that canada has ever, or will ever see.
A part time drama teacher was the best he could do with the massive fortune and advantages left to him by daddy.
He tried to study engineering and failed out miserably almost instantly . This when he was nearly twice the age I was when I started. (31 vs 17) .
The arrogance and ignorance of a fool who’s mastery of 3rd grade math convinced him he could do engineering.
Sharp like snowball.
don’t forget to add to your balanced portfolio, a dash of love for your significant other, a hug for your pet and a toast of your favorite drink with friends.
Remember, when the game is over, it all goes back in the box.
#105 Down in Florida on 01.13.17 at 7:58 am
Hey Turner using WaPo as a source for news is a joke. They slant everything to the left and they are not a useful news source. Come and live down here for a while.
https://www.catholics4trump.com/the-true-story-donald-trump-did-not-mock-a-reporters-disability/
—————————————————–
Yes he did, he just says it was coincidence. Trump is a pathological liar.
http://ethics.npr.org/memos-from-memmott/when-theres-no-evidence-to-support-a-claim-we-should-say-that/
http://www.snopes.com/2016/07/28/donald-trump-criticized-for-mocking-disabled-reporter/
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/video-references-sept-11-celebrations-jersey-city-n-article-1.2452481
#115 Smoking Man on 01.13.17 at 9:44 am
People refuse to see what they don’t want to see. IMO the POTUS is part of the global elite and the media has been purchased. Some see it, many do not. Trump is the stone to upset the apple cart. Hence all the friction and negative media almost to the point of ridiculous. But he won’t play the globalist game. He won’t tow the line. He can’t be bought. But he is not POTUS yet so buckle up. Something doesn’t smell right. Just a suspicion. Just have to put the pieces together
Great article, thank you Garth, lot’s to think about, though I’m not comfortable with a set it and forget it strategy at this juncture.
Have you heard how Rex Tillerson is going to deal with the China South Sea Islands? Blockades? WTI 28 or 78, GLD 1000 or 1500, CAN .65 or .90? Who knows?
The historically low rate environment globally has created immense wealth and in the process distorted not only asset values, societal and political views. Populism is accelerating, consequences are unclear.
In my personal opinion I suspect an “orange swan” event to be the catalyst for renewed protectionism and consequently a new type of investment envoirenment.
5% is far too low of a cash position, IMO.
#102 Trader Jim
”(Actually, my Scottish heritage has me genetically opposed to waste, so I do my part as well, even though the hypocritical Hollywood elites really tempt me to do otherwise)”
——————————————————————-
Good one. Likely my 50% Scottish side that causes me this problem. The other half French, not sure what that is causing.
I thought we were better than the US:
Re: strippers purchasing real estate in Florida (as shown in the movie ‘The big Short’)
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/house-of-lies-13-per-cent-of-canadians-say-its-ok-to-fib-on-mortgage-application-122948252.html
House of lies: 13 per cent of Canadians say it’s OK to fib on mortgage application.
The inauguration should have been held today, a week earlier than scheduled.
Friday the 13th would have been more fitting…
M42BC
Rich and Young or Poor and Old?
#89 Rich Young on 01.12.17 at 11:50 pm said:
The US stock market is a giant Lie
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If you go through life thinking that way, you may have to change your name later to “Poor Old”.
The U.S. stock market is a place where people exchange ownership in businesses. What is your issue?
What is wrong with people owning a share of corporate America?
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There’s a lot of talk here about what Garth said back in 1986 about buying mutual funds versus paying off debt. When the stock market took a big hit in October 1987, I knew nothing about stocks, didn’t have much money to invest, and what little I had was in bore you to tears GICs. I was ready to invest in mutual funds in 1990 and started in May of that year with monthly purchases, a good time as markets were down. Had I been investing in mutual funds when the markets crashed in 1987 I would have frantically made some BIG lump sum purchases of equity funds while they were ON SALE.
you think the controlled opposition, Trump, is out of control?
No amount of money can excuse anyone who mocks, ridicules, demeans or bullies others in public. – Garth
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Yes Trump is a bully and ridicules others.
But please, be honest.
The fact that he does it in public just shows his true colors. The fact that other politicians do it in private, is just as pathetic.
Democrats and the left portray themselves one way, but wikileaks showed their true contempt for the electorate.
Hillarys ‘deplorables and irredeemables’ slip of the tongue, showed her true beliefs.
Frankly, if Trump is successful in his core election platforms, no one will give a thought to the ‘hurt feelings of a CNN’ reporter. Or that, his brash style makes some feel ‘uncomfortable’. Or that Mexican workers don’t have jobs in a new Ford plant over the border.
And if he is successful, America will be a great place to be invested in and a strong business partner to those willing to work with him.
And this is exactly why you Garth Turner, have advised to be more invested in the US, than in Canada.
Canada, if it continues with the tax and more tax and more spend and less oil, policies of the golden child, could be a shell of a country.
But we’ll sure feel good that Junior is in touch with his feminist side.
Trudeau, the under achiever?
#116 bdy sktn on 01.13.17 at 9:47 am said of our Prime Minister:
He is likely the lowest iq pm that canada has ever, or will ever see.
A part time drama teacher was the best he could do with the massive fortune and advantages left to him by daddy.
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Actually, “the best he could do”, so far is obtain the office of Prime Minister of this country.
#90 InvestorsFriend
Your point of view is that the federal government is effectively in an investment partnership with RRSP holders.
I get and accept that. But if tax rates at withdrawal time are the same as they were at contribution time then please explain the advantage of this partnership.
Clearly there’s an advantage if rates are lower but nobody is realistically expecting that in light of the national spending policies now in place.
Of topics
You can’t make this things up…
in UK Cheaper to change a name and get new passport than pay airlane fee to correct it.
http://www.newjournal.us/british-man-changes-name-gets-new-passport-avoid-paying-airline-admin-fee/
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#2 free entertainment to be had on 01.12.17 at 6:43 pm
That was a solid round of truth bombs. Kudos! You tore into the self-appointed Golden God of Kelowna RE and his lies/propaganda with gusto.
As you’ve pointed out, properties sit on the market for months, with price reduction after price reduction. I track EVERY single house for sale in the Kelowna South quadrant (one of the most desirable in our sad little burb) and I can tell you how accurate that grim picture is.
Much like SJWs, realtors still think they control the narrative even as they become the butt of every joke.
Pink Snow falling in Langley.
If this doesn’t sum up the rampant speculation that has gone on in Vancouver the last decade or so I don’t know what will.
This block of land was purchased in late October,when it should have been obvious to anyone paying attention that change was afoot, for 1.35m.
This was a crazy amount of roughly 500k over the already inflated assessment of 812k and is now trying to find a greater fool in a declining market.
It’s assessment in the summer will most likely be in the late sixes/ early sevens.
Most people would say a house out in Langley for 1.35 million is crazy,but to have paid that much just for land.
Hope he married a nurse…
M42BC
289 198 Street, Langley
Oct 19:$3,000,000
Jan 12: $1,749,000
Change: – 1251000.00 -42%
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=RDAwMDAySzQwOQ==
#119 fancy_pants on 01.13.17 at 10:13 am
#115 Smoking Man on 01.13.17 at 9:44 am
People refuse to see what they don’t want to see. IMO the POTUS is part of the global elite and the media has been purchased. Some see it, many do not. Trump is the stone to upset the apple cart. Hence all the friction and negative media almost to the point of ridiculous. But he won’t play the globalist game. He won’t tow the line. He can’t be bought. But he is not POTUS yet so buckle up. Something doesn’t smell right. Just a suspicion. Just have to put the pieces together.
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Trump is the stone to upset the apple cart. Yes, but he is a business man and the almighty dollar is what turns him on, oh yes and grabbing some p$%#y on the way.
Unfortunately Trump is not that smart and is a blowhard fool, but he thinks his own shit doesn’t stink.
It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt. Mark Twain
Another Trumpism,,,,, isn’t that so true.
A fool and his money are soon elected.
Will Rogers
Looks like Calgary RE is reaching critical mass: now awash in new condos/houses – glut never seen since 2001
http://calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/calgary-awash-in-new-homes-without-owners
What will happen when Trump starts fracking and tearing up free trade agreements
The Trump Effect
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-13/taiwan-tech-giant-may-open-us-lcd-plant-response-trumps-make-america-call
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#119
tend to think you are correct, this potus is a cat of different stripe, yet to show its true color, anything between now and the 20th is noise. the only thing we know for sure is that he has many irons in the fire,is not going to put up with cheap shots or crap from the media. a very different potus than previous. will likely Harold many changes much quicker than most suspect.
either way change is in the air it remains to be seen if it is positive or negative
#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.13.17 at 8:37 am
Donald Trump will be ravaged mercilessly by the mainstream press.
Donald Trump will eventually hunker down and avoid all difficult questions from the mainstream press.
Good luck with that.
All Donald Trump’s dirty laundry will be revealed.
Donald Trump wont last the entire 4 years.
His wife will divorce him during office OR more tellingly he will divorce her. Time for a 5th wife.
He’ll resign in disgrace or be impeached.
And once he’s completely gutted the US economy with trade sanctions and threats of retaliation with China
Even the Unemplorables will be happy to see him gone.______________________________________
But somehow 30 years of the “Criminal Clintons” goes totally un-noticed by the MSM.
Is the RRSP really a Tax Elimination Scheme (for most)?
#129 Damifino on 01.13.17 at 11:49 am responded to me:
#90 InvestorsFriend
Your point of view is that the federal government is effectively in an investment partnership with RRSP holders.
I get and accept that. But if tax rates at withdrawal time are the same as they were at contribution time then please explain the advantage of this partnership.
Clearly there’s an advantage if rates are lower but nobody is realistically expecting that in light of the national spending policies now in place.
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Damifino, thank you for your question. Not everyone is willing to rethink their position and I sense that you are.
In addition to what I said at number 90, consider the following.
You have 6k to invest. If you go TFSA you invest $6k and all return and growth is tax free. Excellent.
For RRSP you realise that if you invest 6K you will get a refund of say $2,400 but the $6 k in the RRSP will be taxable. If you remove it immediately you get back the $3600 which was your net cost. Because the government effectively owns about 40% of “your” RRSP you need to invest $10k to have a net of $6k working for yourself. So you borrow 4k short term invest $10k in the RRSP and get a $4k refund and repay the loan. You now have a $10k RRSP but really you should consider it to be $6k that is yours and $4k that is the government’s.
Fast forward 30 years and say the $6k in an TFSA has grown 10 times to $60k. (It takes 8% compounded to do that) You made $54k tax free, Excellent.
The $10k in the RRSP alternative if it has the same 8% compounded return is also up $10 times and you have $100k. But the government is going to collect $40k as you remove it over the years . All this assumes unchanged marginal tax rate of 40%.
So the RRSP investment producers EXACTLY the same result as the TFSA on your net cost of $6k, assuming your marginal tax rate is unchanged at 40%.
Since the TFSA represented a tax free gain on the $6 and the RRSP produced EXACTLY the same after-tax net result on your $6k it must be the case that your net $6k grew to a net after tax $60k in the RRSP COMPLETELY tax free.
If your marginal tax rate is lower in retirement then you actually got a NEGATIVE tax on the growth of your net $6k RRSP.
The above math has been presented here several times and someone posted links to articles that also go through the math.
But most people can’t “get” this concept.
A big mistake they make is to assume that “their” RRSP is all theirs. They think that putting $10k in an RRSP and getting a $k refund increased their net worth by $k. In fact measured after thax their net worth was unchanged. Peop;le need to learn that the government is indeed a partner int heir RRSP. They put in roughly 40% via the initial refund and they take back roughly 40% upon withdrawal. In form the take-back is a tax. In substance it is just your government partner claiming their 40% share of “your” RRSP. (Again all this assumes the unchanged tax rate which Damifino asked about)
Hopefully, the penny has just dropped for a few readers today.
Now I am not saying the RRSP is better than the TFSA. It is certainly less flexible. I am pointing out the mathematical fact that the RRSP allow tax free growth on your net cost in most cases.
Ifen if you are hit with the 15% clawback that amounts to a 25% tax rate on your 60% share. That is high buit at least it is not 40%.
Many people are never hit by the clawback, what with income splitting and modest retirement incomes. But many readers here would be. In that case try to avoid it or try to earn so much in retirement that you are beyond the upper limit of the clawback.
I thought Trump nailed the press conference. I find him more believable than the traditional politicians we are so used to.
In contrast, when T2 speaks, all I see is a polished liar with a globalist agenda.
I’ll take Trump, thanks.
MF
#127 AB Boxster on 01.13.17 at 11:47 am
Nailed it. The Canadian Liberals are absolutely clueless to the wave of populist sentiment sweeping the western world.
Heads totally in the sand it’s comical.
At least Dion is finally out for good I hope.
MF
Coulda Woulda Shoulda
#125 Doug in London on 01.13.17 at 11:42 am said:
Had I been investing in mutual funds when the markets crashed in 1987 I would have frantically made some BIG lump sum purchases of equity funds while they were ON SALE.
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Well SOMEONE certainly bought stocks on Black Monday 1987. Every stock that was sold that day (a lot) was bought by someone.
You claim you would have been brave and bought. Tell us what you DID do in the early 2000’s crash, the 2008 financial crisis, the January swoon of 2016, the crash of 1997? Surely you loaded up on oil stocks when oil was $10 in 1997? No? Well then when it was about $30 in 2015 and Goldman Sacks was calling for $20?
Tell us what you DID not what you woulda done.
Interesting. Investing in Ca financial institutions bonds:
http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/investors-in-canadas-bond-market-just-got-a-major-wakeup-call
#107 Euro observer on 01.13.17 at 8:13 am
NO thanks to Europe.
The EU is a doomed entity. It’s just a matter of time.
You conveniently forgot the Social/economic/political unrest that is bubbling to the surface.
Canada is boring…and that is what most human beings want.
My ancestors, and the ancestors of many left that pathetic continent 100 years ago for a reason.
MF
http://www.businessinsider.com/gundlach-gross-end-of-bond-bull-market-2017-1
The bond king – Jeff Gundlach calls:
Gundlach added that it’s not radical to forecast a 10-year yield of 6% by 2020. The 10-year yield hasn’t been that high since 2000.
Imagine the options:
1. Bond rates on 10 years treasuries rise to 6 % along with Canadian rates, and it’s impact on the housing market in Canada (mortgages with over 7 % interest rates)
2. No rate increases in Canada and as a result a scheisse north american peso worth 0.35 USD.
#147 MF on
I am not asking you to come to Europe. I am just pointing out the differences between normal world class cities and their house prices and the ignorant know-it-all-arrogant- center-of-the-universe-everyone-wants-to live-here braggers.
Apparently Madona will put a tatto on her private parts to protest Trump.
Word has it she will get more viewers than CNN.
Deplorables and irrediambles will boycott Academy Awards.
I’m in. BrakING Bad on net flicks.
@Investor’s friend, post #145
Here’s a summary of what I did:
In late 1994 and early 1995 stocks and equity funds were on sale. I took advantage of the sales to buy more Altamira Equity Fund, Altamira Select American fund, and TD Equity Fund. I did the exact same thing in late 1996 and early 1997 when they went on sale again. In June of 1998 when oil was $11/barrel I read where some “expert” said: there’s so much oil out there it could go to $5/barrel. I broke some windows with a sonic boom when I RAN to a phone to buy more Altamira Energy Fund and TD Energy Fund. In late summer and fall of 1998 stocks went on sale again so I bought more of the above mentioned equity funds as well as science and tech funds and some CIBC Canadian equity Fund.
In June 1999, while other equity funds were going up gold was going down. It was about #230/ounce and some “expert” said: Gold is a useless metal, no one wants it anymore so it could go to $150/ounce. Just like a year ago, I ran to a phone and bought some DIRT CHEAP Altamira Precious Metals Fund. Later in 1999, I took some profits selling off equity funds and bought some cheap bond funds.
Stocks and equity funds went on sale again in 2001 to 2003 so I cashed in the bond funds and bought more of the equity funds back at cheap prices. My only regret is I bought back those science and tech funds before they bottomed out.
From 2006 to early 2008 I cashed in some of my equity funds and all of the energy and precious metals funds and bought much cheaper bond funds. In late 1998 and early 2009 I reversed the flow, cashing in the bond funds and buying DIRT CHEAP stocks and equity funds. I should have gotten set up with a margin account and bought even more of them.
In August 2011 stocks and equity funds went on sale again. I was on vacation and remember submitting orders from a computer on the Newfoundland ferry. The connection worked but was frustratingly slow. I checked my order status and entered more orders from a computer at a library in Corner Brook, NL. I also had the presence of mind to buy more US dollars while they were cheap so I could buy some good stocks, at a bargain price, on the NYSE.
In 2013 REITs were on sale so I went on another buying binge. Between then and now, CPD and XPF were on sale so I averaged in and bought some as well as some utility stocks that were on sale like AQN, NPI, and CSE. Now back to oil. Yes I remember when some “experts” at Goldman Sachs said oil could go to $20. I quickly sent in some buy orders with my iPad for XEG-T and USO-NY as I was sitting outside in the warm Thailand sun. Shortly after reading about that prediction the time tunnel sucked me in and shot me out to June 1998, where I got to relive the great memory of kayaking 6 Mile Rapids (about 100 Km west of Timmins on the Groundhog River), in high water on June 26 of that year. On the drive back home I recalled hearing that brand new tune Lucky Man by The Verve on station Q92 Timmins. Luckily I exited the time tunnel before my flight left to go back home from Bangkok.
As I’ve said here many, many, many, many, many, many, many, many, many, many, many, many times before, you should invest like a governor that gives the engine more fuel/air mixture when the speed is low and less when the speed is high. Do you have any more questions? Did I forget a buying opportunity?
Correction:
In my above lengthy post (hey, don’t blame me, Investor’s Friend asked) I said: In late 1998 and early 2009 I reversed the flow, cashing in the bond funds and buying DIRT CHEAP stocks and equity funds. I meant 2008, not 1998.
T2 tells group that Canada needs to phase out the Oil Sands and why would Alberta citizens get all upset? In fact, his coffee and donut tour thus far has been a political disaster. He has no clue, and his handlers are out having lunch in Neverland.
#146 Euro observer:- I am sure glad that have no European Bonds in my portfolio, as can you spell going down the tubes? Why don’t you rent or buy a home in Marbella, Spain and tell us about the cheap living there.
Another stellar day on the TSX and CAD.T2 will probably take credit for the huge advance in both.Its funny a well known investor and author Doug Casey called T2 a rich spoiled brat and all he’s good for is that people can come here as refugees and collect welfare.
A tax reform considered by the republicans could add an additional tax to all Canadian goods entering the US. US companies would not be allowed to deduct imports as a cost of production or sales, but would be able to deduct US purchases as a tax cost of business. The effect would be to systematically bias US companies to source US made goods in their production. It is called a “Border Adjusted Tax”(BAT), and could be very damaging to the Canadian economy. Canada already has enough going wrong from a business point of view their US counterpart may not have. Eg: Carbon Tax, Inflated Electrical energy costs (Thank You Wynne) and soon corporate taxes. It may now be a good time to buy US equities in $US
http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/pierre-poilievre-trump-could-be-about-to-take-a-bat-to-canadian-jobs
Gentle ,Loving Kindness on 01.13.17 at 6:02 pm
A tax reform considered by the republicans could add an additional tax to all Canadian goods entering the US. US companies would not be allowed to deduct imports as a cost of production or sales, but would be able to deduct US purchases as a tax cost of business. The effect would be to systematically bias US companies to source US made goods in their production. It is called a “Border Adjusted Tax”(BAT)…
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Anyone else see a business opportunity here?
Set up a US company to buy Canadian goods and resell to US companies. The US company doesn’t make much of a “profit” in the US and the downstream purchase qualifies as a tax deduct item.
You’re going to lose your readership with all of this Trump bashing. You come off like a globalist puppet and times are changing. Do yourself a favor and open up to the next POTUS before you sound like every other fossil telling us the sky is going to fall.
What did I get wrong? — Garth