Generation M

tree-modified

In Vancouver, Jacques is perplexed.

“Garth, I’m a big fan of your blog,” he sucks.  “For the life of me I can’t figure out what is a “moister”?  Is it some kind of Generation Y of Z? Please explain!”

Well, Jack (it’s Vancouver, so get a proper name), one benefit of writing a blog without an editor – and not caring that much about the readers – is inventing words, creating language and eschewing the conventional, polite way of referring to people who cry out for appropriate labels. Like Millennials. They’re hilarious, all whiskas, plaid shirts, eBikes, shiny phones, multiple degrees, fear of failure and impossible expectations.

They’re not quite cooked yet, either. At least they weren’t when I started writing about them five years ago, referring to the ‘moist Millennials’. The dampness isn’t only behind the ears. It also comes from panting for things they’re not achieving, but nonetheless craving. It’s a generation that can’t wait to trade freedom for a mortgage, for example, expecting the Bank of Mom to pony up the cash, and generally choosing the basement over some tawdry rented space.

A lot of it, psychologists speculate, stems from risk aversion. This might be the single most scared generation… ever. Having seen the 2008-9 credit crisis crash their parents’ mutual funds when they were in high school, then graduating into a low-energy, slow-growth, no-jobs world, yet with extreme amounts of (expensive) education, they’re jaded cynics. The big job and paycheque didn’t materialize. The world’s not exciting. It’s kinda hostile.

To them, real estate looks safe. Stock markets are terrifying. They want guarantees. Risk sucks. The number of twentysomethings I talk to who put their meagre TFSA dollars into 2% GICs or 1% bank accounts is striking. Confidence in the future is thin. And everybody wants to grow up to be their parents. Youth’s no longer a destination, just a station stop. Sad.

Anyway, Jacko, ‘moist millennials’ became ‘moisters’ because I hate typing. Just like so many of them hate the thought of severing the umbilical.

We already know that a little over half of first-time homebuyers make a big withdrawal from the maternal institution in order to buy real estate and become joyfully indebted. This week a new study (American) tells us an astonishing 40% of Millennials are living at home. That’s the greatest number since w-a-y back in 1940 when the Great Depression was being cured by a World War. That’s right. Seventy-five years later adults are once again children.

moister

Fear of failure outside the nest may be a big part of the moister curse. That’s the case when it comes to money. Earlier this year Sun Life asked the kids where they’re putting their investments funds. Turns out 44% self-described as ‘risk-averse’, with an equal number professing to be ‘conservative.’ Over half said they would gladly take a lower rate of return on their investments if they could avoid some volatility.

“This could potentially be putting their retirement savings in jeopardy,” a Sun Life spokesguy concluded, “by investing so conservatively.” Damn straight. Interest rates may be slowly grinding higher, but it’s unlikely anyone in the next decade will get ahead putting their cash into ‘safe stuff.’ As far as real estate or equities go, saving’s been a consistently losing strategy.

By the way, Sun Life also found roughly 70% of moisters are pessimistic about where the economy is going over the next five years. It’s this dark world view that exacerbates their risk and keeps them in the basement with their online high-interest savings accounts. The kids (now outnumbering Boomers, so this stuff matters to society) see corporations as greedy, globalization as exploitative, politicians as jokes (except cute ones with tats, promoting weed) and markets as rigged.

In the financial business, such beliefs perplex the banks, who naturally like to Hoover everyone. Moisters would rather give their money to a robo algorithm to buy assets they don’t understand than trust [email protected] with a clutch of mutual funds. Suspicion and doubt abound. But the fact robo-advisors in Canada are dying on the vine, while cash deposits keep growing, tells you northern Millennials may be even more boring than their US cohort.

On balance, Jack dude, moisters are doing themselves no favours. Real estate will prove to be far less stable than most of them (or their parents) believe, while the significant debt they take on could prove to be crushing as servicing costs rise. As for investing in growth assets that trace equity markets, when your time horizon is three or four decades, risk evaporates. This generation need only harness the power of one single tax shelter – the TFSA – to reap big gains. Finding a hundred bucks a week to put into assets averaging 7% over 35 years will deliver a nestegg of $786,000, of which $604,000 is tax-free growth.

If you stuff the same amount safely into a high-interest savings account, the total is $218,000, or which only $35,000 is growth. What an astonishing difference.

The world delivers no shortage of reasons to be scared. Just think of the Kardashians. Or the Trump kids. But the financial risks today are hugely overstated. After eight years of crappy recovery and inflated housing, we’re on a different path, paved in promise. Tell your daughter that, as you kick her out.

145 comments ↓

#1 Penny Henny on 12.21.16 at 6:32 pm

#64 Russ on 12.19.16 at 11:18 pm
at 9:40 pm

Seriously peons. Make good choices, listen to Garth and ignore your relative’s advice.
The little woman & I are coming up on 35 years married (to each other).

—————————————————-

Hey Russ say hi to Troy.
How you liking Aliston?

#2 The Technical Analyst on 12.21.16 at 6:34 pm

Thought I would point this out for those following my Technical Market Analysis:

100% of S&P gain over last 2 yrs has come in last 6 weeks. All due to new found faith in a guy who was previously said to be markets demise.

https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund/status/811632559960399872

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C0N_PoNUoAA9VZ8.jpg

#3 powder_hound86 on 12.21.16 at 6:39 pm

Ah good ole generational generalisations coming from an out of touch wrinkly who thinks he understands the plight of millennials (but fails).

See, two can play this game

What did I get wrong? — Garth

#4 For those about to flop... on 12.21.16 at 6:40 pm

I posted this earlier, but it is probably more appropriate with this post and should keep the evening crew entertained for a few minutes…

M42BC

https://howmuch.net

#5 Randy on 12.21.16 at 6:42 pm

The Fed became politicized and decided to bastardize the business cycle.

#6 espressobob on 12.21.16 at 6:53 pm

Mutual funds many moons ago where designed for retail investors to have a manager outperform an index for their clients. Seemed like a good idea at that time.

Today we know better?

#7 Damifino on 12.21.16 at 6:53 pm

And everybody wants to grow up to be their parents.
—————————————

I sure didn’t want to. I tried to avoid it like the plague but it happened anyway.

But in hindsight, its not all that bad. Now I want to live forever, but I’ve been told that’s unlikely.

So, I guess I’ll end up exactly like my parents.

#8 Theo on 12.21.16 at 6:56 pm

Why not be a millenial like me and go #YOLO on JNUG for Christmas? (And its called Christmas!)

#9 Robo Man on 12.21.16 at 6:57 pm

Hey Garth are those robo advisors any Good?

Not if you like conversation. — Garth

#10 Renter's Revenge! on 12.21.16 at 6:59 pm

#107 InvestorsFriend on 12.21.16 at 4:51 pm
Where Should Oil Be Produced

It’s interesting to think about whether high cost oil sands should be produced while lower cost options exist and whether such production makes sense.

=======================

One argument I’ve heard is that we should let our competitors use up their oil first, then start selling our own at a higher price when we have the advantage.

The other argument is that we should try to get as much product to market as possible before the world moves on to other resources and it’s too late to sell our oil.

Some actions of the Saudis, Norweigians and Rockefellers seem to indicate the writing is on the wall.

#11 Capt. Serious on 12.21.16 at 7:01 pm

Simply ask someone if they’d rather have $500,000 or start with a penny (RIP) day 1 that then doubles every day for 30 days to see if they understand compounding.

#12 prairie person on 12.21.16 at 7:07 pm

Garth, It’s a different world. In 1961 when I graduated from university, I was sauntering down Portage Ave. when an adult from my past, one who had decision making power, asked me if I was looking for a job. Yup, yup, he said, and he hired me. In spite of having known me as a teenager. That’s how desperate employers were. I made three major moves up, no problem. I worked hard but I was no genius. After 40 years, I had investments, savings, and a good pension. And a paid for house. There seemed to be opportunity everywhere I looked. For my first house, I paid just around 2.5 of my salary. Steady raises made the mortgage easily affordable. I don’t see the same opportunities for my grandkids. They are hard workers. Responsible. Intelligent. They are at an age where they’ll be wanting to get married and have a family in two or three years. The difference between them and me isn’t intelligence, ambition, determination–it is opportunity. They’ll succeed. I don’t doubt that. But the way will be harder.

#13 Cici on 12.21.16 at 7:11 pm

Cute tree, but seriously…that dog owner is just as bizarre as any of us cat ladies!

#14 Generation M(iddle finger) on 12.21.16 at 7:16 pm

In the not too distant past – up until a generation ago – people could buy homes AND save for retirement, or get decent private/public pension. Often in single earner families, raising kids.

It did not used to be “pick one”. It also did not used to be limited to a small segment of professions or industries.

Leaders of the currently retiring generation will be asked to explain how did that happen under their leadership, no doubt.

This questioning has started already: Trump won as the first wave of frustration with this change.

At this election frustration won against millennial votes, who served mostly as pawns of the establishment that created the conditions and assisted for these changes to happen.

But the next wave of vote against the entire system as we know it will come from millennials, who will be really pissed by then, looking for a complete shake off and overhaul, running out of the remainders of what their parents could leave for them – as the last generation that was able to save – and still declining steadily in disposable, savable, investible income and hope.

#15 House bubble on 12.21.16 at 7:17 pm

DELETED (Never cut and paste an entire media story here. Use a link.)

#16 Debtslavecreator on 12.21.16 at 7:17 pm

A last minute surge of mortgage deals and refi coming in
Many are loading up in a panic and will be broke once mortgages exceed 4% on the 5 year which is most probable within 18 months
The house of cards will come down roughly twice as fast as it “rose”
Those who signed very real contractual obligations against imaginary asset values will be wiped out as debt servicing, property tax, utilities and normal home maintenance destroy most of whatever discretionary income remains after the massive income, sales taxes, sharply rising user fees and soon , the most dangerous tax, the carbon taxes
Can you say Slaves ?
Modern day slavery

#17 InvestorsFriend on 12.21.16 at 7:25 pm

Which Oil Should Be Produced?

#10 Renter’s Revenge! on 12.21.16 at 6:59 pm responded to my post:

#107 InvestorsFriend on 12.21.16 at 4:51 pm
Where Should Oil Be Produced

It’s interesting to think about whether high cost oil sands should be produced while lower cost options exist and whether such production makes sense.

=======================

One argument I’ve heard is that we should let our competitors use up their oil first, then start selling our own at a higher price when we have the advantage.

*****************************************
Possibly a very valid argument. In this case the “we” is, I suppose, Canadians. The implication being that “we” all collectively own Canada’s oil and will benefit now or in the future when “we” decide to sell it.

(Or is “we” just Albertans?)

Of course “we” don’t all benefit equally. Some people depend on oil for a job. Others will have their job whether Canada produces a lot of oil or none. And taxes won’t change all that much whether Canadian governments collect a lot from oil or a little. (Yes, taxes will change SOME, but not that huge).

In my post I said what if there was one big “we” for the entire planet. One big democratic country. In that case would/should expensive Canadian oil be produced?

#18 ANON on 12.21.16 at 7:28 pm

Simply ask someone if they’d rather have $500,000 or start with a penny (RIP) day 1 that then doubles every day for 30 days to see if they understand compounding.

Even those who understand compounding have trouble understanding that, first, the promise is made, and only then the profit is derived from that. :)

#19 So that's what's in the basement on 12.21.16 at 7:28 pm

What’s wrong with “moisters” living in the basement? I’d rather they do that than hit me up for a down-payment on a house they can’t afford.

Anyway this whole conversation just reminds me of one simple fact: people really don’t think through the consequences of having kids. They probably never did and prior to the birth control pill it was probably pointless, but in the modern age it makes sense to ask questions since options are available that weren’t in the past.

Question 1: Why do you think you want to have kids? This is a really serious question, because the answer is likely to be 100% selfish and partly driven by simple biological drives. Every creature that is alive today is a result of an unbroken chain of reproduction that goes back probably 500 million years, where every one of your ancestors managed to reproduce before they got eaten, so yes it is a biological imperative for survival. But it is no longer, perhaps never was, an imperative for your personal survival and enjoyment of life. So why do you want to do it?

Question 2: Question 2 follows on assuming question 1 has been somehow answered with a reasonable explanation why you want kids; “How are you going to afford it?” Kids are expensive. At least in the western world the days of them just falling out your bum and you can’t do anything about it are long gone. Reasonable people don’t have more children than they can afford in some sort of “reasonable lifestyle”.

But the 3rd question is more pertinent to our moisters. Now that you’ve decided you want the kid and you can afford the kid, “At what point does your responsibilities as a parent end?” I mean you were the one that had the kid, he or she really didn’t have a say in the matter. So now that you made the kid, and the world has changed in ways you probably didn’t foresee such that their jobs have all been automated away or sent overseas, what are you going to do? Just kick them out when they turn 18? Sure that’s what your parents did but you should have learned from that experience not to have kids yourself, rather than repeating your own parents’ cruelty.

So now you have this moister living in the basement playing video games all day because their college education didn’t get them anywhere. What are you going to do? You do have to accept the fact that it was your decisions that lead to them being here, not theirs.

It must all come down to human nature. Perhaps we are not able to control our biological instincts. For instance, it seems a huge affront to reason that people who live in abject poverty and with little food security are often the ones who have the most children. Sure, they are also the ones least equipped to make choices, but this is just another one of the cruel ironies that the maker in his sick sense of humor decided would be part of the way things work.

#20 Funky on 12.21.16 at 7:29 pm

Same old song Garth, which was postulated by the man years ago and I quote…

“When faced with a totally new situation we tend always to attach ourselves to the object, to the flavour of the most recent past. We look at the present through a rear view mirror. We march backwards into the future” Marshall Mc Luhan

Thanks for all you do and Merry Christmas!

#21 Dick on 12.21.16 at 7:38 pm

#12 Prairie Person

I totally agree. Earning a living wage is way more challenging than it was for my parents’ generation. Corporations don’t retain employees long term anymore, and wages and benefits have diminished in real terms. Corporate serfdom is no longer a viable option. Kids today need to be on their toes and think entrepreneurs. Look for opportunities, reduce expenses, delay settling down with a house and kids. And yes, being over-educated is a requirement. My father got a bank job with a high school education at 20. That same job today would require a University degree to be considered, and probably a CFA to be in contention.

#22 Doug t on 12.21.16 at 7:40 pm

My 21 yr old punk/antiestablishment son has been attending the skool of hard knocks for his education. He has made a point of reading at length about world politics and and the ample “haves and have nots” of the world. He also has known disappointment and success – I have no crystal ball but I think he is going to be just fine.

#23 Long Branch Apprentice on 12.21.16 at 7:47 pm

Said it before, I’ll say it again.

Most Millennials suck at math, so numbers scare them. They literally don’t understand what amortization tables are, especially those with mortgages.

Everybody wants to brag about their new house, but if I even try to nudge the conversation to the stock market or finance in general, I get blankly autistic stares.

More than enough resources out there on the Non Dark Web to teach oneself, provided like Smokey says, the teacher hasn’t beaten the fear of learning out of you with her shrill voice and dreaded red pen. The horror of a bad grade!

The Millennials have been taught to hate the 1%, rather than to attempt to learn their ways. Poor people don’t teach their children jacksh$t about money, other than to piss it away on Tim Horton’s and lottery tickets.

Apparently my drunken grandfather was great at arithmetic, and I think I inherited his genes, in more ways than one.

PS: I’m white, male and grew up with a Rural Route address.

#24 the other white meat (pork) on 12.21.16 at 7:52 pm

#11 Capt. Serious on 12.21.16 at 7:01 pm
Simply ask someone if they’d rather have $500,000 or start with a penny (RIP) day 1 that then doubles every day for 30 days to see if they understand compounding.

What has that kind of compounding got to do with reality? Try 5 percent per year with 3 percent inflation and we’ll see what you come up with. Or we could offer them the average rate of return on a balanced portfolio in 2015 to see if they understand risk. The return was zero, by the way.

#25 Self Directed on 12.21.16 at 7:57 pm

#11 Capt. Serious on 12.21.16 at 7:01 pm

Simply ask someone if they’d rather have $500,000 or start with a penny (RIP) day 1 that then doubles every day for 30 days to see if they understand compounding.
—————————-
I think 99% (even Garth) would pull out the calculator first before deciding. Is this like an IQ question?

#26 The Great Gazoo on 12.21.16 at 7:58 pm

Garth and co, you have been recommending preferred shares for a while – ZPR trading at 10.64 up another 1% + today. Nice call.

http://www.stockwatch.com/Quote/Detail.aspx?symbol=ZPR&region=C

I expect more gains in preferred’s and energy over the next year.

#27 jay on 12.21.16 at 7:58 pm

The Best Place on Earth ? http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2016/12/21/transportation-adds-second-mortgage-to-vancouver-housing.html You’ll also probably get divorced after a few year’s from the stress of living on the gerbil wheel .

#28 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.21.16 at 8:03 pm

@#3 Powder-hound (born in)86
“Ah good ole generational generalisations coming from an out of touch wrinkly who thinks he understands the plight of millennials”
********************************************

Just had the Christmas offifce party and listened to TWO of SEVEN staffer moaning about their “boomerang kids”
You know. The millenials that return home to live on the couch or in the basement.
One has a degree.
The other a Red Seal Journeymans ticket.
Both out of work.
No savings.
No job prospects in the ridiculous salary’s or wages they think they deserve right out of the gate.
Perhaps awarding medals to everyone who participated in School contests through their formative years WASNT such a great idea after all…….
Snowflakes melt when things get hot.

But I shouldnt have to tell a Powder Hound that.

PS.
Now that you Millenials outnumber us Boomers can we blame everything on you?
If not.
Dont worry.
Even if you wont listen to our insipid whining about the unfairness of life under the Tsunami of Millenials
The generations coming up behind you wont either.
“Those greedy Millenials are to blame….”
I cant wait.

#29 I don't know on 12.21.16 at 8:05 pm

“Real estate will prove to be far less stable than most of them (or their parents) believe, while the significant debt they take on could prove to be crushing as servicing costs rise.” – Garth

———————————————————-

Definitely not true for Toronto. In 20 years I don’t know how much a SFH in TO will be worth, but I’m sure it’ll be a multiple of what it’s worth today.

Pure fabrication. No asset goes up without end. — Garth

#30 Invictus on 12.21.16 at 8:16 pm

#11 Capt. Serious on 12.21.16 at 7:01 pm

Or just ask them to COMPOUND 100 000 cad @ 6% for 30 times(30 years). The fearless Blog leader does it already for his clients,he said. 100 k is just about an average down on a average shed.
The fearless leader wrote about this already just recently if I remember well.

#31 Vancouver Troy on 12.21.16 at 8:33 pm

Great article tonight Garth.

Thank you.

#32 jackson on 12.21.16 at 8:34 pm

#46 Smoking Man on 12.20.16 at 10:18 pm

I have 4 full time employees, 2 contractors when I get busy. I would never hire anyone under 40. Can’t trust them.

There is a reason why republicans nerve got hacked.
My trips to Boston last year.

Keys me emails.

3567565533774356773227788
5677886545678884477899445

Long time dogs. You all remeber keys me, the little app that CSIS made me pull from the web. My secret little company. That sells text, not email encryption. Fool proof.
————-

garth should release a Delete-BS app for this type of stuff.

#33 Brian Ripley on 12.21.16 at 8:45 pm

“To them (Millennials), real estate looks safe. Stock markets are terrifying. They want guarantees.” Garth

One of my readers suggests that the technicals in terms of momentum on the Vancouver housing charts is looking like a trend change is pending. I have mashed up his thoughts on a chart here on this post from yesterday:

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/anti-trade-vancouver-edition

My opinion is that most bubbled markets (Equity, Debt, Real Estate) are looking tired but it’s the Festivus season and perhaps market participants are simply distracted with year end pressures.

Thanks for your insightful blogging Garth, have a good year end. Cheers BR

#34 Drew on 12.21.16 at 8:49 pm

Fantastic post. I’ve been reading for about 6 months but haven’t ever desired to comment until now. I’m turning 28 in a month so this post is about myself. I wholeheartedly agree about the power of the tsfa for my generation, there is a good chance I don’t use my rrsp at all in my lifetime. I have saved 10k this year and put it into 5 index tracing low cost etfs that are globally diversified. I plan on having my tsfa maxed out at the 63000 cap it most likely will be at in two years. Then I will only need to save a couple of grand a year and reinvest dividends in order to achieve that nice nest egg that is close to a mil as you said. Since my time horizon is so long I don’t have the bond aspect you recommend but once I have maxed out my tsfa perhaps I will purchase some bonds in my rrsp so when things go down again eventually I may be able to capitalize at that time and transfer those into equities and grow that nest egg substantially if the opportunity presents itself. I too am living at home and won’t move out until 29-30 unfortunately but with my investments strategy and knowledge of renting, in large thanks to you. Once I do fly away I’ll be far more comfortable and less stressed than my peers because I know I’m completely financially stable, and free. Thanks for your style of language and work, it’s appreciated!

#35 Marius on 12.21.16 at 8:50 pm

https://thetyee.ca/News/2016/12/21/Million-Dollar-Commute/

#36 Rexx Rock on 12.21.16 at 8:55 pm

Yeah,everything is safe,just look at the banking crisis in Europe.The USA is ultra safe,its only 20 trillion in debt and can service its debt at normalized interest rates.No big deal just be diversified and everything will be ok.It can only go up with share buy backs.Keep on trading!!

#37 millennial-Falcon on 12.21.16 at 8:56 pm

why is garth is talking like were entering the golden age of investing? because trump has written a bunch of bogus cheques with his mouth? the longest and weakest recovery in historys silver bullet solution all along was a orange blowhard with weird hair? gimme a break

#38 Context on 12.21.16 at 9:00 pm

Take out a ruler with the wife and chalk a square foot somewhere on an appropriate floor. Is it worth $500 to $900 in debt for a box condo in the sky? What is that square foot really worth to maintain in the real world? Look at it carefully and decide, as you have been hooped by the Real Estate cartel because his profit is not yours anymore.

#39 Scumop on 12.21.16 at 9:08 pm

There is a very good reason moisters have a fear of failure. They never experienced it.

Helicopter parents have made sure of that, even coming to job interviews with them.

#40 Seattlelight on 12.21.16 at 9:10 pm

Millennial here. I lost my RESP to the Nortel crash (lesson learned – diversify!), then graduated with an engineering degree during the ’08-09 crash. I decided to wait it out in grad school, since the government offered me a tax free $35k a year to do it.

Then I got laid off twice in one year. We looked into moving to a bigger city, but all the offers were coming in at $5k less than I was offered in ’09 with just an undergrad degree. We decided to give up on Canada, packed up the cats, and moved to the USA. We managed to triple our income, before considering the exchange rate.

I’ve spent my youth constantly waiting for the other shoe to drop. Being risk adverse comes as naturally as breathing now.

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.21.16 at 9:13 pm

Totally off subject.
Another day, another house “For Sale” burns in BC.

A “luxury” house for sale for 2 million dollars in Comox BC owned by a developer and a Real Estate agent burns to the ground…………

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.cheknews.ca/raging-comox-fire-destroys-luxury-home-247412/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwitpPHu3IbRAhUH9GMKHXatDqoQFggbMAI&usg=AFQjCNHQUGQJ2YPlRahu1lEmvFBoyfqd1Q

Stay tuned folks.
The first of many?

#42 Habsrule on 12.21.16 at 9:16 pm

Just came across this tonight.

https://www.thestar.com/business/2016/12/21/gta-house-goes-for-400000-over-asking-it-was-like-a-rock-concert.html

I find these kinds of tactics frightening and completely unethical. $400,000 over asking!!! Are we insane?

#43 a man about a dog on 12.21.16 at 9:20 pm

#28 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.21.16 at 8:03 pm

You know why we call them the “greatest generation”? Because compared to the boomers, everyone that wasn’t a total screw up looked great.

#44 you might be a boomer.... on 12.21.16 at 9:22 pm

If you insist on new hires filing out excessively long, detailed online job applications that nobody EVER reads

#45 Smoking Man on 12.21.16 at 9:25 pm

#23 Long Branch Apprentice on 12.21.16 at 7:47

You hit the nail on the head. Problem with urban schools, parents have no idea how the progressives are mind twisting there kids.

Outside the crazy urban centers, teachers are more accountable. Country folk talk to their kids, keeps the communists at bay.

I’m on a tear lately on Twitter I’m hitting T2 butts and all the cabinet ministers hard when ever they say something stupid.

Once they realize it was I who was responsible for destination of there popularly, they’re going to come after me hard. Might get audited twice a year now.

Leaving dodge spring of 2018. The peak Toronto real estate, to a country with no extradition treaty with Canada.

Then watch me go wild on Twitter.

#46 you might be a boomer.... on 12.21.16 at 9:26 pm

If you ever received job training as a new grad but now expect new grads to have 3-5 years experience.

(What’s that about “unrealistic expectations” Garth?)

#47 Terry on 12.21.16 at 9:29 pm

Great blog Sir Garth. Wonder if you could enlighten us on how to best profit from a falling cdn dollar, particularly in the area of hedged vs unhedged etf’s, and .u versions such as zdy-t vs zdy.u-t.

Many thanks

#48 you might be a boomer.... on 12.21.16 at 9:29 pm

If you elected politicians who increased public sector debt for 20 years and now that you’re retiring insist that we should “live within our means”.

#49 rainclouds on 12.21.16 at 9:29 pm

Math is Hard
School boards are useless
Electorate deserves their pain
Kids get screwed cause they dont vote
Society loses
Rum and weed are cheap and legal along the entire west coast …..

I hope you liked my poem

Melly Clistmas

#50 Built to Spec on 12.21.16 at 9:31 pm

What’s scary about the Trump kids?
They appear to be smart, successful and pretty decent by all accounts.
Especially Ivanka!

#51 NoName on 12.21.16 at 9:39 pm

#11 Capt. Serious on 12.21.16 at 7:01 pm

Simply ask someone if they’d rather have $500,000 or start with a penny (RIP) day 1 that then doubles every day for 30 days to see if they understand compounding.
—-

reminds me of story that my budy always asked me bacteria in petry dish that i always got it wrong…

A Petri dish hosts a healthy colony of bacteria. Once a minute every bacterium divides into two. The colony was founded by a single cell at noon. At exactly 12:43 (43 minutes later) the Petri dish was half full. At what time will the dish be full?

bacteria in a petri dish double the area they cover everyday.if the dish is covered after 16 days,on what day was only one quarter of it covered?

#52 House bubble on 12.21.16 at 9:44 pm

GTA house goes for $400,000 over asking: ‘It was like a rock concert’
About 800 people viewed the property over three days, eventually selling for $1.1 million.

#53 kids on 12.21.16 at 9:46 pm

#19 So that’s what’s in the basement

Why do you think you want to have kids?
How are you going to afford it?
At what point does your responsibilities as a parent end?

Since you asked it seriously: here is the serious answer:

It is better to have your own kid for various reasons.

The alternative of not having your own kid is to appoint the government to source a supply of kids, as all governments are somehow afraid of declining population figures.

Once you hand over to the government to provide the “supply of kids”, you lose control how many you prefer along with many other choices, as immigration quotas are not subject to referendums.

They are driven by political party voter demography calculations and industry demands for lower labor cost, by creating a healthy over-supply.

Letting governments take care of the declining population also means losing your own decision of “how many kid you can afford”, as you won’t be taxed at the rate what you want to provide to cover the cost of raising kids, sourced by the government.

The choice is pretty clear: if you biologically can, it’s better if you have your own kids and contribute to maintain healthy population statistics.

It will cost you a bit more but you can have way more influence on the outcome. You are always better to spend your own money than the government spending your money – this rule applies to kids, as well.
You can even decide when to stop financial support of your own kids, which you can’t do the other way around.

Not to mention that raising your own kids can give you tremendous joy.

Don’t fall for the propaganda of the cat and dog owners – having pets and kids are not the same.

#54 Martin on 12.21.16 at 9:56 pm

Pure fabrication. No asset goes up without end. — Garth

So, why would your portofolio be any different ?

No consecutive linear gains. But over time, yes. — Garth

#55 Smoking Man on 12.21.16 at 9:57 pm

Finding a bottle of JD in the back yard that you thought a low life blog dog who knows were you live took all your prised possessions. Many have gone missing lately.

Fighting a cold with Jack Daniels, so under rated. I feel like I won the lottery..

Woo Hooo

#56 Smoking Man on 12.21.16 at 10:04 pm

#44 Built to Spec on 12.21.16 at 9:31 pm
What’s scary about the Trump kids?
They appear to be smart, successful and pretty decent by all accounts.
Especially Ivanka!
.

Garths in a tough spot… A brand, a successful dude.
With a fan base that he’s unsure of lately. He’s not stupid, he will come to the dark side soon. He’s got Harley and never takes of those cowboy boots.

Im surprised he’s never been outed as a passive aggressive white rasist, sexist with those worn out cowboy boots.

It’s only a matter of time. The insane left is getting crazier with every prom.

#57 DON on 12.21.16 at 10:18 pm

Greetings from Gen X.

Boomers had it bad and good back in the day.

Millens have it bad and good at present.

Boomer tries to pass on wisdom and the millen responds. “Yah but…It’s different now”. And then boomer remembers the conversation they had with his/her parent.

And the cycle repeats.

#58 45north on 12.21.16 at 10:21 pm

This week a new study (American) tells us an astonishing 40% of Millennials are living at home.

Mark Hanson ( talking about the American market ) never has it taken more income to buy the average house.

http://mhanson.com/2396-2/

Prairie Person: Garth, It’s a different world. For my first house, I paid just around 2.5 of my salary. Steady raises made the mortgage easily affordable. I don’t see the same opportunities for my grandkids. They’ll succeed. I don’t doubt that. But the way will be harder.

and success is a multi-generational effort but that doesn’t mean the parents put up the down payments. Or co-sign.

#59 Pete on 12.21.16 at 10:22 pm

It’s interesting to think about whether high cost oil sands should be produced while lower cost options exist and whether such production makes sense.
————————————
Word out of Mexico tonight is that there is a complete shortage of gas at the pumps. The US has completely shut of gasoline deliveries to Mexico.
They are waiting for fuel from China to arrive in early January.
Not a word in the press here.

#60 Paul joseph Watson on 12.21.16 at 10:24 pm

“Well, Jack (it’s Vancouver, so get a proper name), one benefit of writing a blog without an editor – and not caring that much about the readers – is inventing words, creating language and eschewing the conventional, polite way of referring to people who cry out for appropriate labels.”

Interesting, sorta like when the Left and the mainstream media coined the term “Fake News”.

You only wish this blog were fake. — Garth

#61 Pete on 12.21.16 at 10:39 pm

It is better to have your own kid for various reasons.
The alternative of not having your own kid is to appoint the government to source a supply of kids, as all governments are somehow afraid of declining population figures.
—————————————
Hear! Hear!
Best response ever to those who always ask the same question about why one would opt to have kids that they can’t afford (or at least can’t afford in the eyes of the smart aleck who asks the question).

#62 Smoking Man on 12.21.16 at 10:42 pm

DELETED

#63 joe on 12.21.16 at 10:46 pm

garth ,,,it is enough ,you are so stupid with your thoughts
,,,real not travelled ,real canadian,,,,who never saw anything outside canada….
and your advices suck

#64 Patricia on 12.21.16 at 10:48 pm

Has there has been any coverage or commentary in the media about the increase in property taxes for homes purchased in the GTA based on new mpac assessments? Given that most people don’t even have mpac assessments on their radar when buying a home, any assessment of a significant increase in value would cause propety taxes to increase and need additional cash flow to service the cost of keeping a home. Would this trigger sales in the short term?

#65 IHCTD9 on 12.21.16 at 11:14 pm

#51 NoName on 12.21.16 at 9:39 pm
#11 Capt. Serious on 12.21.16 at 7:01 pm

Simply ask someone if they’d rather have $500,000 or start with a penny (RIP) day 1 that then doubles every day for 30 days to see if they understand compounding.
—-

reminds me of story that my budy always asked me bacteria in petry dish that i always got it wrong…

A Petri dish hosts a healthy colony of bacteria. Once a minute every bacterium divides into two. The colony was founded by a single cell at noon. At exactly 12:43 (43 minutes later) the Petri dish was half full. At what time will the dish be full?

bacteria in a petri dish double the area they cover everyday.if the dish is covered after 16 days,on what day was only one quarter of it covered?

—-

12:44

Day 14

#66 Metaxa on 12.21.16 at 11:16 pm

Those of us who have been around longer than the blog average (70+ for me) will recall various ups and downs, various parent/kid tropes, various job markets…I recall BofM GIC’s offered at 12% over 5 years. I recall the Royal Bank telling a close relative to just go home, live in the house and they would figure out something later…when the crisis tamped down a bit.

None of that happens to day and probably won’t for time to come.

My point is apparently we all come here for tips and advice on how to cope so why all the hate on these Moisters…how about pointing them here or other online spots for tips and advice for them instead of the anecdotal disparagement and thinly disguised contempt?
They do have it harder than I did I think.

@41 Crowded…Fartz:
I know the adjuster on that file…60+ yo couple living next door are the owners along with a realtor. More to come I suppose.

#67 Tony on 12.21.16 at 11:17 pm

I would expect the stock market in 30 to 40 years’ time to be lower than today at least in America. Vancouver real estate prices to be slightly lower and GTA real estate to be slightly higher 30 to 40 years from now. Millennials seem to correctly sizeup the next five years yet don’t have the essential knowledge to gain financially going forward.

#68 Andrew Woburn on 12.21.16 at 11:24 pm

#14 Generation M(iddle finger) on 12.21.16 at 7:16 pm
In the not too distant past – up until a generation ago – people could buy homes AND save for retirement, or get decent private/public pension. Often in single earner families, raising kids.
========================

There was a brief golden age from about 1945 to say 1975 when North America had most of the world’s marbles. Labour was in very short supply as almost any business activity required actual humans and robots existed only in science fiction. Labour had enormous political power.

Consumers had been scared straight by the Great Depression and debt was a dirty word. People had to save 20% to make the down payment on a house so it is not surprising that houses looked “affordable”by today’s standards. Instead of taking on outsize mortgages and living for years on peanut butter sandwiches while carrying the mortgage, average workers punished the humble groundnut for years while saving their DP. Even if houses only cost tens of thousands then, and even if you could buy a house at three times annual income, houses didn’t feel particularly affordable if it took ten years to accumulate a down payment. People with bad luck or poor discipline had no hope of home ownership.

After 1975, labour started to feel competition again from the rest of the world especially when a billion Chinese entered the world economy. Millions of women entered the workforce driving down demand for labour. After 1980, computers started shredding well-paying jobs at an accelerating rate.

Anyone who thinks we can ever get back to the golden age is nuts or a complete lying toad like Trump. Any Millennial who thinks he or she has been short-sheeted by “Selfish Boomers” is as delusional as the Luddites who thought they could turn back the Industrial Revolution by smashing the new machines.

Yes, I agree Millennials seem to have a sketchy future compared to their parents/grandparents but they can’t save themselves by wasting energy on blaming their predecessors. They need to focus on what’s coming and take political action now before they lose whatever leverage they have. Unemployed people have little political power.

#69 IHCTD9 on 12.21.16 at 11:26 pm

When the topic of downtrodden Millennials comes up, there is always a common denominator:

They’re always highly educated and urban dwelling.

The rural kids out my way have skills, cheap houses, no school debt, and the same crap paycheques that the big city kids get.

The young hipsters can’t stand our redneck paradise – and that’s cool – but stop blubbering about how you’re getting screwed!

Outside the GTA there lies a simple affordable life for those who can make that choice.

#70 Russ on 12.21.16 at 11:26 pm

Hi Penny
I haven,t seen Troy and the boyes since they moved to Alberta.
The wife talks to Alison occaissionally.

We,re in Mexico now, instead of taking in the silly season back home.

Tell Pete there is a lot of traffic in PV right now. I,ll be cub reporter and fid some word on the street.

#71 NSA rank and file on 12.21.16 at 11:28 pm

Dear Mr. Turner,

Please cease and desist from further comments on the US economy or politics. Since you are online, you are clogging up our surveillance machinery.

Please understand that the US has survived Abraham Lincoln’s assassination, JFK likewise, the Nixon administration, the great depression, WWII, 2 Bush administrations, the shuttle disasters, the Cuban missile crises, Three Mile Island, 9/11, and the housing and banking collapse. Our assessment is that a Trump administration is nothing compared to all that. He may be an idiot, but he’s our hommie and we don’t expect him to be an existential threat to the union. We are as a nation a resilient people. Please find your sensationalism elsewhere.

Thanks,

You friends at the NSA. (PS we are watching.)

#72 IHCTD9 on 12.21.16 at 11:30 pm

#63 joe on 12.21.16 at 10:46 pm
garth ,,,it is enough ,you are so stupid with your thoughts
,,,real not travelled ,real canadian,,,,who never saw anything outside canada….
and your advices suck

——

Buddy, you need a new dealer…

#73 Winterpeg on 12.21.16 at 11:31 pm

“Finding a hundred bucks a week to put into assets…” GT
Finding a HUNDRED BUCKS A WEEK? to save? I’m kind of with Prairie Person that things are a bit tight for the average millennial these days in the job market but also in their salaries. Although it’s partly about choices. (lattes vs savings) (Or mortgage payments vs savings) Unless they’re in that small bunch that lands a nice job, saving a hundred a week is challenging with the cost of living the way it is. No? Yes?

So save fifty. — Garth

#74 CMHC a house of cards on 12.21.16 at 11:35 pm

We are in a monster housing bubble.
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/canadas-housing-market-looks-a-lot-like-the-u-s-did-in-2006/

#75 Andrew Woburn on 12.21.16 at 11:37 pm

#59 Pete on 12.21.16 at 10:22 pm

Word out of Mexico tonight is that there is a complete shortage of gas at the pumps. The US has completely shut of gasoline deliveries to Mexico.
They are waiting for fuel from China to arrive in early January.
Not a word in the press here.

===================

And The Donald is not even in the saddle yet.

However consider this less exciting explanation from Platt’s.

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/mexicocity/perfect-storm-causing-gasoline-shortages-in-mexico-21745116

#76 Tony on 12.21.16 at 11:38 pm

Re: #41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.21.16 at 9:13 pm

Just like they say it’s only gambling if you lose the same can be said about arson. It’s only arson if you get caught. Fort McMurray, Vancouver and GTA real estate circa 1987-1990. The firefighters are going to be very busy in the Vancouver area.

#77 Fortune500 on 12.21.16 at 11:43 pm

#12 prairie person – Thank you

#78 BillyBob on 12.21.16 at 11:47 pm

#32 jackson on 12.21.16 at 8:34 pm
#46 Smoking Man on 12.20.16 at 10:18 pm

I have 4 full time employees, 2 contractors when I get busy. I would never hire anyone under 40. Can’t trust them.

There is a reason why republicans nerve got hacked.
My trips to Boston last year.

Keys me emails.

3567565533774356773227788
5677886545678884477899445

Long time dogs. You all remeber keys me, the little app that CSIS made me pull from the web. My secret little company. That sells text, not email encryption. Fool proof.
————-

garth should release a Delete-BS app for this type of stuff.

=====================================

I take it you’re new?

This one is one of the true ones.

#79 IHCTD9 on 12.21.16 at 11:47 pm

#73 Winterpeg on 12.21.16 at 11:31 pm
“Finding a hundred bucks a week to put into assets…” GT
Finding a HUNDRED BUCKS A WEEK? to save? I’m kind of with Prairie Person that things are a bit tight for the average millennial these days in the job market but also in their salaries. Although it’s partly about choices. (lattes vs savings) (Or mortgage payments vs savings) Unless they’re in that small bunch that lands a nice job, saving a hundred a week is challenging with the cost of living the way it is. No? Yes?

So save fifty. — Garth

——

We started out at 200.00 month in the 90’s and that’s between 2 people. Big thing is to start early, and if you’re doing RRSP’s throw the return in there too.

Play around with an online compound interest calculator that allows you to input a monthly payment in addition to calculating the CI. You’ll be amazed how much time will affect the outcome, and just how much more per month you’ll have to save to catch up if you blew 10-20 years on something stupid like an “all in” mortgage.

Try out a few different scenarios, I guarantee it’ll light a fire under your @ss.

#80 IHCTD9 on 12.22.16 at 12:01 am

#68 Andrew Woburn on 12.21.16 at 11:24 pm

Anyone who thinks we can ever get back to the golden age is nuts or a complete lying toad like Trump. Any Millennial who thinks he or she has been short-sheeted by “Selfish Boomers” is as delusional as the Luddites who thought they could turn back the Industrial Revolution by smashing the new machines.

——-

Bang on the money. The Millennials may well turn out to be the cannon fodder expended in the transition to whatever comes next. That’s the way the cookie crumbles, those days were gone before most Millennials learned to wipe.

If I were starting out, I’d try making it small town before blowing up my finances with a 6 figure school debt that puts me on par with 10,000 other young punks for an unpaid internship. A kid just starting out may be best off putting off the visions of grandeur in favour of staying in the black, and slowly working forward.

#81 So that's what's in the basement on 12.22.16 at 12:10 am

#53 kids

I’m not sure I understand your argument but I guess I started it so I’ll dive in.

“The alternative of not having your own kid is to appoint the government to source a supply of kids, as all governments are somehow afraid of declining population figures.”

Um, so I should have kids so my government doesn’t somehow have kids or find some supply of kids? Why do I need to step up and provide my government, which I didn’t vote for at least in Justin’s case, with raw meat for their nefarious schemes?

“Once you hand over to the government to provide the “supply of kids”, you lose control how many you prefer along with many other choices, as immigration quotas are not subject to referendums.”

Well, there is a part of that I can agree with. Why are we allowing immigration when our own kids can’t find jobs? There is something wrong with that. Don’t get me wrong I am not opposed to immigration, but I think it should be strongly tied to the unemployment statistics, at least over the longer term. A country that does not have full employment does not need immigrants. Or a lot more kids.

“The choice is pretty clear: if you biologically can, it’s better if you have your own kids and contribute to maintain healthy population statistics.”

Why is it my responsibility to maintain healthy population statistics for a government that has failed me in every possible way and is only getting worse?

“Not to mention that raising your own kids can give you tremendous joy.”

This “tremendous joy” is one of the 100% selfish reasons I was mentioning. Joy for who? You. Unless your children are experiencing “tremendous joy” you did it wrong, and for the wrong reasons.

“Don’t fall for the propaganda of the cat and dog owners – having pets and kids are not the same.”

You have to feed and clean up after both. Unless you are willing to do so, you probably shouldn’t have either.

“You can even decide when to stop financial support of your own kids, which you can’t do the other way around.”

Um, not sure how to read that one, but no you cannot stop financial support of your kids any more than you can stop feeding your dog. Or perhaps you are going to cut them off at 18 or 21? Well don’t be surprised if they have cut you off at the same time and some many years later when your RRSP and reverse mortgage didn’t work out as planned they aren’t answering your phone calls.

#82 Polls R Phake on 12.22.16 at 12:17 am

#21 Dick on 12.21.16 at 7:38 pm
#12 Prairie Person

I totally agree. Earning a living wage is way more challenging than it was for my parents’ generation. Corporations don’t retain employees long term anymore, and wages and benefits have diminished in real terms. Corporate serfdom is no longer a viable option. Kids today need to be on their toes and think entrepreneurs. Look for opportunities, reduce expenses, delay settling down with a house and kids. And yes, being over-educated is a requirement. My father got a bank job with a high school education at 20. That same job today would require a University degree to be considered, and probably a CFA to be in contention.

____________________________________________

Unless you are a 1%er working for the government. I wonder how many people know that 30% of public sector employees at BC Hydro and ICBC make over 100K per year with benefits and pensions. I personally know a paper pusher who makes 150K with all her perks. She pushes paper. She’s not a brain surgeon. Let the class warfare begin.

#83 Garthe on 12.22.16 at 12:24 am

C’est bon Garthe.

#84 chelsea on 12.22.16 at 12:48 am

The media on TV are still saying Vancouver is still unaffordable. No kidding. So is the rest of British Columbia. Though house prices are still high, nothing is flying off the shelf at the asking price. What puzzle’s me is that I hear home prices are dropping, (I don’t see that), and the other hand they are going up in price .. unaffordable for the average joe. Is this just pure deceit to the public or just a criminal act. We are NOT stupid, so who is really telling the truth.

Got to have answers!!! Anyone …

#85 DON on 12.22.16 at 1:16 am

#68 Andrew Woburn on 12.21.16 at 11:24 pm

Nicely put! Refreshing to have the context. The internet is also a game changer -hopefully more home businesses or people working from home.

My advice to Millennials, experiencing tough employment markets, etc (much like the late 80s and early 90s) right in between the BC and Ontario Housing downturns).

Work (any job – temp agencies etc. Reason: Good way to make contacts when you do the following). Save and travel – best experience ever! Shoot the parents a little rent money and when you are ready to leave, homes always waiting for you. Go to where the experience is – an adventure you’ll never forget and will always benefit from the different perspectives in the world, especially at a young age.

Have fun, but stay aware – your future well being depends on it.

For now be patient, scheme and plan but wait to the summer to see where this housing market is headed. Heed Garth’s advice.

#86 Taught Moisters... on 12.22.16 at 1:36 am

Taught the Moisters since they started plying the University system up until a few years ago before retiring.

I liked them very much.

GenX were a lot more rowdy than the Moisters, the latter noticeably more well behaved in class – like night and day. GenX classes were more of a mix in ages; whereas the Moisters, very young all of them – no work then return back to school if necessary mentality.

They place a high value on an education and it will work out for them in the long run.

They are not at all bigoted. Refreshing. The more egalitarian society is, the better off it will be in the long run.

Very dutiful in that they would do as they were told, with little complaint. They would suck it up during periods of heavy work loads and get on with it knowing that whining was just a waste of time towards getting the job done.

Yes, a little self-entitled but I blame we Boomers for that.

Virtually all fields of study take a financial course of some kind [I have taught Business, Engineering and Science students]. So those of you thinking they do not know how to compute compound interest will be in for a big surprise [at least where I taught], they can also compute annuities, sinking funds, calculate cash flow, run capital investment scenarios etc. for those of you here that are smug enough to critique them for this.

All in all, a pretty nice bunch.

Pity the economy is sputtering, costs have gotten way out of hand in Canada relative to wages forcing many to live at home and save [they are very conservative as a group]. Perhaps why they are a bit tainted towards Government and investment managers.

bsant

#87 solo 604 on 12.22.16 at 1:48 am

After eight years of crappy recovery and inflated housing, we’re on a different path, paved in promise.

Why, because Trump, the great business man, will guide the US economy in an extended period of growth? He started out with millions from his father, then went bankrupt multiple times, and has engaged in all manner of sketchy deals. He’s no saviour, and his greatest achievement has been branding himself as a business whiz despite all evidence to the contrary.

As usual, the market has over-reacted, this time to the upside, and when Trump disappoints — and he will disappoint — the pendulum will swing back. It’s not different this time.

#88 fishman on 12.22.16 at 1:52 am

I don’t see any problem with Moisters. Nothings changed. Maybe cause I’m old school. Mining, logging,fishing, construction. Old guys got the money& experience. Kids got youth,strength,stamina
quickness. Get em young & give them a taste of money,then work em hard & pay em good.
Once they get addicted to the life style serious cash flow generates, its nonstop; they’ll muscle you aside.

#89 Stock Picker on 12.22.16 at 1:52 am

Garth, I just read an interview with a guy from Blackrock who said the opposite about moisters regarding investing , well speculating,apparently on the Trump victory which was supposed to juice gold and tank the markets bigtime. According to market data a yuge number of M’s placed big yuge bets on triple short etfs and gold funds…. and lost huge. The leftist Hillary media had brainwashed these kids into thinking this negative market outcome was a lock, like shooting fish in a barrel. So much for Moms down payment money….no wait….it’s all gone into my accounts…..oh well……it just shows the power of the media to sway elections and suck money out of the gullible

#90 jane24 on 12.22.16 at 2:53 am

Garth maybe family life is changing as economic realities are changing. I live in Italy part of each year and they have a different but more sensible perspective. Rather than nuclear families living and paying for their own separate space, families live together in one large property with flats within for different sub-groups. This means childcare is on tap. The property is considered to belong to the whole family and all money coming in is considered to belong to the whole family. Gardens and repairs are done by the whole family.

When we brought our house there, the lawyer was vey surprised that we had children but were putting the house in our own names. She pointed out that houses belong to a whole family and that if we used our own names then there would be complications when we died. Title would have to change.

In our Italian village we see moisters eating out and buying Italian designer clothes. They can afford it as they have no rent or mortgage. Their wages are totally theirs to spend. Shelter was paid for by previous generations.

#91 Ontario's Left Coast on 12.22.16 at 6:33 am

This insanity needs to end…

https://www.thestar.com/business/2016/12/21/gta-house-goes-for-400000-over-asking-it-was-like-a-rock-concert.html

#92 pBrasseur on 12.22.16 at 6:43 am

To be fair to millennials when I was less than 35 my knowledge of markets and investment was equivalent to a big fat zero!

Hell I even thought that Bill Clinton was a great president :-)

So there is hope, besides, the fact that many stay at home shows you they know how to count at least a little bit…

#93 Stock picker on 12.22.16 at 6:53 am

#26 Great G…..don’t get ahead of yourself on ZPR movement daily…. very low volume…price aberrations in these sessions ….. just as likely we see pre season pricing when post holiday trading resumes . Merry Christmas prezzy for all

#94 Hammad on 12.22.16 at 7:06 am

Hey Garth, I belong to the millenial generation. Any advice you’d have for us?

Reading comprehension. — Garth

#95 DoomandGloomer on 12.22.16 at 7:08 am

#20 Funky posted:
“When faced with a totally new situation we tend always to attach ourselves to the object, to the flavour of the most recent past. We look at the present through a rear view mirror. We march backwards into the future.” Marshall McLuhan
——————————————————————
“Recency bias” is the phenomenon of a person most easily remembering something that has happened recently, compared to remembering something that may have occurred a while back.

Life in the early 1900’s was depressing and was an era filled with extremely hard and strenuous work that didn’t offer any future for the average Canadian to do better. If you were an average wage earner you would be virtually stuck in the same miserable job for the rest of your life.
While jobs were available to most people, you were under constant slave-like scrutiny while working and would have to be willing to do virtually anything the boss demanded, or be fired on the spot.

Millenials only have the recent past to reflect on. They think they are the only generation that had things tough.

It is only their parents, and possibly their grandparents that may have had a half-decent lifestyle. They don’t realize that the period of time between 1945 and 2005 was an economic aberration, during which there was unprecedented growth and prosperity. It’s OVER!

What Millenials are experiencing is actually normal economic times: financial hardship from birth to death. They’re lucky that they have a basement to live in for free.

Count your blessings Millenials. You are better off than 99.9999% of humanity ever was.

#96 Victor V on 12.22.16 at 7:17 am

Christie Blatchford: Heroic trucker who died in Berlin attack was being a man — and that’s fine with me

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/christie-blatchford-heroic-trucker-who-died-in-berlin-attack-was-being-a-man-and-thats-fine-with-me&pubdate=2016-12-22

#97 Maj on 12.22.16 at 7:30 am

“Tell your daughter that, as you kick her out.”

In Canada, more men are living at home with parents than are women. Women are more likely to marry or co-habitate.
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/05/28/millennials-parents-homes-us-canada_n_10172474.html

My parents kicked out my sister. Long-term repercussions. For the entire family. Love trumps money.

“Give a man a fish and feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and feed him for a lifetime.’ -Proverb

Don’t bring fish into it. — Garth

#98 Adrynian on 12.22.16 at 7:49 am

Are you familiar with Minsky’s debt deflation model? Or Steve Keen’s research showing the empirical correlations between credit -vs GDP, -vs asset prices, as well as -vs unemployment?

Debt-to-GDP is growing more rapidly in the US again, hence the recovery, but as interest rates rise that will end. And the future will look a lot like Japan’s last 25 years unless the debt ratio is reset.

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.22.16 at 8:25 am

@#86 Taught Moisters
“Pity the economy is sputtering, costs have gotten way out of hand in Canada relative to wages forcing many to live at home and save [they are very conservative as a group]”
********************************************

As I recall the economy “sputtered” in the late 1970’s ( oil crisis)
The 1980’s ( mortgage rates of 20% …yes 20%)
The 1990’s
and now.
The economy always “sputters” .
People have learn to live within their means ie. Buy a used car. Owning a house ISNT a “right”. Balance your income vs expenses.
That seems to be a lost art these days and it isnt only Moisters that spend more than they earn if my Boomer friends are any indication.
Math IS hard.
Good paying jobs dont fall from the sky (even when you HAVE experience.)
But not to worry Moisters, The boomers are retiring in droves so the job vacacies are coming. Trouble is, industry is hiring offshore workers to do it on line. . Thank god the govt just legislated the internet as an essetial service.
You’ll be able to work at a call center …..from home.
Nobody cares so……Suck it up buttercup

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.22.16 at 8:30 am

@#91 Maj
““Give a man a fish and feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and feed him for a lifetime.’ -Proverb”
******************************************

Great. So after 2 millenia of teaching people how to fish
We have 8.5 billion mouths to feed and we’re running out of fish………..

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/feb/16/overfishing-is-as-big-a-threat-to-humanity-as-it-is-to-our-oceans&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwij9Jb084fRAhUUUmMKHWNrBj0QFghRMAo&usg=AFQjCNFpTJiEvjaMiJc6paO8jX-j5vKuwg

And people wonder why China wants control over the South China Sea…….

WWIII coming to an ocean near you.

#101 Ret on 12.22.16 at 8:54 am

#82 “Let the class warfare begin.”

You mean take on the well entrenched political-military-industrial-Main Stream Media elites like Trump is doing?

Canadians couldn’t ever do that. We might upset or offend someone if we called them out on their poor performance, inefficiencies, back room deals or corruption.

We don’t want to know. Just tax us more or put it on the debt pile. We want to keep everybody happy.

#102 Renter's Revenge! on 12.22.16 at 8:55 am

#17 InvestorsFriend on 12.21.16 at 7:25 pm
In my post I said what if there was one big “we” for the entire planet. One big democratic country. In that case would/should expensive Canadian oil be produced?

===============

Well, then obviously not. Unless, you include factors like shipping cost and time, and diversification of sources for security of supply.

But it’s too hypothetical a question. When are we ever going to get everyone to agree on having one world “country”? Besides, other provinces like Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Newfoundland have oil, and I don’t see any national strategy optimising where oil is produced within Canada.

#103 spinorama doctor on 12.22.16 at 9:15 am

Well, Jack (it’s Vancouver, so get a proper name), one benefit of writing a blog without an editor – and not caring that much about the readers – is inventing words, creating language and eschewing the conventional,..”

Garth,

That was a cannonading response….you are the Danny Gallivan of financial bloggers!

#104 skidMark on 12.22.16 at 9:24 am

US GDP revised up to 3.5% cuz yknow BOOOMING!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/104180619

#105 Polls R Phake on 12.22.16 at 9:58 am

http://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-streets-stock-selling-business-the-worst-in-20-years-1474536602?utm_swu=3856

DOW 20K – all controlled by a handful of banker dudes.

#106 Polls R Phake on 12.22.16 at 10:02 am

#100 Ret on 12.22.16 at 8:54 am
#82 “Let the class warfare begin.”

You mean take on the well entrenched political-military-industrial-Main Stream Media elites like Trump is doing?

Canadians couldn’t ever do that. We might upset or offend someone if we called them out on their poor performance, inefficiencies, back room deals or corruption.

We don’t want to know. Just tax us more or put it on the debt pile. We want to keep everybody happy.

_____________________________________________

Go ask 100 people who have a family income over 100K what they do for a living – guarantee 75% of them work for the public service in one way or another. As I said – Class Warfare. We are the great unwashed the government is trying to keep happy with failing socialism.

Mr Selfie “Canadians WANT a carbon tax” as 100% of Canada is below zero. And it snowed in Algeria today. And Aleppo.

#107 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 12.22.16 at 10:05 am

Lay off Millennials. If you have a beef with them take a look in the mirror. I was you who raised your children to be that way. Maybe your parenting skills SUCK. Maybe you wanted to be their “friend” instead of the difficult task of being their “parent”.

We have two Millennial children who entirely debunk the generational generalization on most all fronts. How? Good old fashioned child rearing skills including some hefty personal sacrifices to ensure that like living on one income to have a parent at home instead of feeling guilty for not and overcompensating when they are.

Maybe the mere fact that you all bitch and complain about the outcome is as great an evidence as any that YOU screwed up.

There are NO bad children just BAD PARENTS.

#108 traderJim on 12.22.16 at 10:25 am

#50 Built to spec

Re: Trump kids

Exactly. I know a few highly educated (Uni professors) who pointed out they thought Trump must be doing something right to have raised his kids so well, a point that I would never have even thought of.

As a former bank employee I was in contact with some of the very, very wealthy, and the children of the wealthy were almost without exception, well, let’s just say, not well adjusted, to be very polite.

The parents who had made the money were invariably great people, down to earth, not that concerned about how much they had or even making more. They just wanted to preserve it, but most kept plowing their wealth back into their businesses. And who can argue with success?

Diversification was all I could offer, and that really didn’t appeal to everyone, they preferred to stick with what they knew.

One of the wealthiest (hundreds of millions) and nicest guys was a strip mall developer, who had a tiny office paneled with plywood. He had a formula, and he explained it to me in 2 minutes: always build 1 story if possible, no elevator, location….etc.

To save some taxes one of his adult children would have had to relocate to the Caribbean, but the child refused, despite the millions per year in tax savings possible.

I dunno, moving to the Caribbean hardly seems like a difficult thing to do.

Anyway, it shows how screwed up the world is when people like Martin Sheen and Alec Baldwin with their alcohol and drug addled personal behaviour, not to mention that of their children, are supposed to be admired over the well behaved, scandal free, successful family of a man who has never smoked or touched alcohol.

Crazy times.

#109 traderJim on 12.22.16 at 10:32 am

p.s. I had never seen Ivanka before the 60 minutes interview with the Donald and family.

Pretty much everyone who saw it said: Wow, she should be President.

No doubt she will be groomed, as you can see from Trump including her in meetings with world leaders.

She seems more middle of the road ideologically, which I don’t admire, but most voters do. She’d be tough to beat.

And Kanye West as her running mate, hahahaha. Crazy times I tell you.

#110 IHCTD9 on 12.22.16 at 10:48 am

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.22.16 at 8:25 am

Nobody cares…

___________________________

There is some wisdom for the moisters. It’s not true obviously, but if you live your life and make plans given this assumption, you will benefit in the long run.

Put yourself first, save, invest, stay out of debt. If you burn your financial house to the ground, we will all just stand around and roast marshmallows and laugh.

No one cares about your job
No one cares about your income
No one cares about your house
No one cares about your car
No one cares about anything you say, do, think or own.

Now, go forth and win :).

#111 Context on 12.22.16 at 10:50 am

#96 Maj:- We need to revisit the art of fishing in our fresh water lakes once again and allow the Chinese to eat the fish in the Pacific Ocean. The key to good fishing for a nice catch to stock up in the freezer is to take along the wife or girlfriend. They are experts in knowing how to bait the hook for reeling them in.

#112 rainclouds on 12.22.16 at 10:52 am

When the birdcage liner Huff Post wades in, you know the apocalypse isn’t far off

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/stephen-punwasi/real-estate-developers_b_13675010.html

#113 IHCTD9 on 12.22.16 at 11:11 am

#105 Polls R Phake on 12.22.16 at 10:02 am

Go ask 100 people who have a family income over 100K what they do for a living – guarantee 75% of them work for the public service in one way or another. As I said – Class Warfare. We are the great unwashed the government is trying to keep happy with failing socialism.
___________________

Yep, Ontario is full of sunshine listers – over 10,000 at OPG alone with the head dudes troughing up 7 figure salaries off the backs of Ontario’s beleaguered private sector shmucks.

I have a feeling that the Ontario Liberals have nearly achieved the ideal scenario: just enough union/public sector employees in the province along with their families to win every time. They’ve had 4 consecutive mandates in a row, and all have been horrific for the private sector worker, but great for the public worker.

Wynnie got a majority last time just by scaring the public/union workers in Ontario with Hudak’s suggestion to reduce the size of government. Right now, her approval rating is at 15%, so if the libs manage to get in after all this AGAIN for the 5th consecutive term – I’m calling it: they’ll get in from here on in unless something crazy – real crazy happens.

If this happens, every private sector conservative should start voting Liberal/NDP – whatever is worse. Then start making plans to retire early and start up a new hobby avoiding taxation. That’s the last resort, line up ever more feeders, but empty the trough at the same time.

#114 Mark Baum on 12.22.16 at 11:37 am

https://www.thestar.com/business/2016/12/21/gta-house-goes-for-400000-over-asking-it-was-like-a-rock-concert.html

LOL $400k over asking, purposely staged with torn wallpaper and ‘well-used’carpet.

To be ‘fair’ seems to have been listed under the norm in the area

Old realtor trick. List a $1 million property for $699K and watch the sheep trot in, then outbid each other and end up paying above-market. Never fails. — Garth

#115 Eric on 12.22.16 at 11:38 am

Since I moved out of my parents place (2.5 years ago), rents in my area have been going up somewhere around 8-10% a year and I’ve been sticking with a place that I don’t like just because I’m safe from those increases until I move.

Add to that landlords who are very slow to deal with any issues or repairs or anything other than collecting rent cheques… and it’s not that hard to see why buying a place is a strongly desirable option for many.

What market in Canada has seen 10% annual rent increases? — Garth

#116 snowbooters on 12.22.16 at 11:48 am

#105 Polls R Phake on 12.22.16 at 10:02 am

And it snowed in Algeria today. ”

You need to get out more dude…..there are ski hills in Algeria….it snows alot…

“6) Chrea, Algeria
In its 1980s heyday, this resort in the Djurdjura Mountains attracted skiers from across Algeria. But when the Armed Islamic Group commandeered the slopes in 1992, that golden era came to a crashing end. Happily, the militants left in 2002 and since then skiers have tentatively returned to the pistes, which meander through gorgeous Alpine forests few would associate with Algeria.

#117 Eric on 12.22.16 at 11:58 am

^ I’m in North Surrey, so admittedly this particular spot is probably going up slightly faster than the rest of the metro van region due to the changing reputation. I haven’t been monitoring other parts of metro vancouver quite as closely, but judging from what I’m seeing on craigslist in New West and Burnaby they can’t be too far behind.

#118 Capt. Serious on 12.22.16 at 12:24 pm

And the future will look a lot like Japan’s last 25 years unless the debt ratio is reset.

I get so tired of this comparison. 1) Japan is uniquely [email protected]#$ed up in their treatment of bad loans; 2) Japan is uniquely xenophobic and has very little immigration — they have a population problem; 3) Japan has a different culture (historically high savings rate). Japan also reacted really slowly to deflation setting in, and illustrates why it is necessary to move quickly to head it off.
And also, you’ll note that despite anemic to no growth in Japan, their standard of living is still very high.
No disaster is looming and America is not Japan.

#119 Andrew t on 12.22.16 at 12:32 pm

#88 Stock Picker on 12.22.16 at 1:52 am
Garth, I just read an interview with a guy from Blackrock who said the opposite about moisters regarding investing , well speculating,apparently on the Trump victory which was supposed to juice gold and tank the markets bigtime. According to market data a yuge number of M’s placed big yuge bets on triple short etfs and gold funds…. and lost huge. The leftist Hillary media had brainwashed these kids into thinking this negative market outcome was a lock, like shooting fish in a barrel. So much for Moms down payment money….no wait….it’s all gone into my accounts…..oh well……it just shows the power of the media to sway elections and suck money out of the gullible
—–
But did you know there’s actually no such thing as a Hillary leftist media? It’s a lie propagated by the Conspiracy Media Complex to make the gullible feel savvy, so they become compliant and don’t attempt to the hard work of finding consensus on the real issues of consequence to their lives. Whoa! I think I just blew my mind!

#120 Penny Henny on 12.22.16 at 12:35 pm

Hey Smokie, a book for you.
Nobody Wants to Read Your Sh*t: Why That Is and What You Can Do About It

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1936891492/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1936891492&linkCode=as2&tag=aweaofcomsen-20&linkId=01d184fed0058c471e5694c981384d80

#121 InvestorsFriend on 12.22.16 at 12:40 pm

“We” Will Never Have a National Oil Strategy

Renters Revenge responded to me at 101 about what oil should be produced in an ideal world and noted:

other provinces like Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Newfoundland have oil, and I don’t see any national strategy optimising where oil is produced within Canada.

***************************************

Yes, quite true. Provinces control the resources in Canada and will compete with one another to try get the jobs and royalties and taxes in their province even if another province has cheaper and easier to get oil.

This competition is also why Norway famously extracts more royalties than is the case in the Alberta oil sands. It’s because without low royalties in the oil sands, the oil can’t compete.

The FEDs get involved because pipelines that cross provincial or Canada’s borders are I believe in theory soley the jurisdiction of the Feds.

The FEDS also probably control export and import rules and duties but I believe we have pretty much free trade imports on oil (no import duties).

The concept of “we” as I have been saying is slippery. When people talk about what “we” should do that is good for “us” they really at heart almost always mean what is good for them personally. At times “we” might mean Canada but it also might mean their province or their home town. What ever benefits a person personally (including their family and perhaps friends) the most is what they tend to mean by “we”.

None of the above is bad, it is just how things work. There can be no national oil strategy because the provinces control the oil. And no coordinated world oil strategy because competing countries control the oil.

#122 Context on 12.22.16 at 12:54 pm

#113 Mark Baum:- There was a time that I attended auction sales weekly to purchase fine art, antiques, oriental carpets, or surplus merchandise to flip at a flea market for a quick profit. The problem with an auction sale is emotion takes over for the bidding on a particular item, more times than not, in a war one against the other to win at all cost. Its like two men fighting over the same woman with the end result never to one’s advantage, and it ends up badly.

#123 rainclouds on 12.22.16 at 12:58 pm

#112 IHCTD9

Timely opinion In the Chronically Horrible re Public Private employment, albeit in NS but applicable in just about every jurisdiction Civic/ Provincial/ Federal

http://thechronicleherald.ca/opinion/1426472-opinion-average-size-public-sector-%E2%80%98would-save-n.s.-1-billion%E2%80%99

#124 millenially on 12.22.16 at 1:02 pm

One trend I notice with my peers is they live at home and then buy an “investment” condo and rent it out. Completely bizarre. Every time I talk to these people they are completely sure the condo will double in value in 5 years… why the parents don’t make them live in their condo I have no idea.

Also funny, many of them don’t understand how rent is taxed.

#125 Smoking Man on 12.22.16 at 1:11 pm

DELETED

#126 Bram on 12.22.16 at 1:21 pm

#29 I don’t know on 12.21.16 at 8:05 pm
Definitely not true for Toronto. In 20 years I don’t know how much a SFH in TO will be worth, but I’m sure it’ll be a multiple of what it’s worth today.

Nominal prices? Quite likely.
20 yrs of 3½% inflation equals a doubling in itself, even without any actual appreciation!

In real dollars? I would call that a lot less likely.

On the other hand: when all SFH’s are replaced with condo towers, surely the last SFH standing will be a gazillion+ dollars. So who knows?

To illustrate that last point: the number of detached SFHs for sale in downtown Vancouver: ZERO. (There are a few left standing, but be prepared to pay insane premium for that.)

#127 Damifino on 12.22.16 at 1:59 pm

#14 Generation M(iddle finger)

…the next wave of vote against the entire system as we know it will come from millennials, who will be really pissed by then, looking for a complete shake off and overhaul…
————————————-

Substitute “boomers” for “millennials” in the above statement and you will hear me at twenty.

#128 jess on 12.22.16 at 2:08 pm

* notable unemployment in higher age groups…

In October, there were more EI recipients aged 55 and older, and this was true for both men (+1.1%) and women (+1.5%). There were also more women aged 15 to 24 receiving EI benefits, up 3.0% from September. The other demographic groups showed little change.

The number of women receiving regular EI benefits has been on an upward trend since April 2016. This trend has been observed for all three age groups: 15 to 24, 25 to 54, and 55 and older.Compared with 12 months earlier, the number of EI beneficiaries increased across all demographic groups.

The most notable rise was among those aged 55 and older, with an increase of 12.3% for men and 10.1% for women.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/161220/dq161220a-eng.htm

#129 jess on 12.22.16 at 2:13 pm

routers

Google Lowered 2015 Taxes by $3.6 Billion Using ‘Dutch Sandwich’
(22 Dec 2016)
How Google Saved $3.6 Billion Taxes From Paper ‘Dutch Sandwich’ (22 Dec 2016)
http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertwood/2016/12/22/how-google-saved-3-6-billion-taxes-from-paper-dutch-sandwich/#530225f07483

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/double-irish-with-a-dutch-sandwich.asp

#130 the following sentence is SPOT ON... on 12.22.16 at 2:15 pm

‘This generation need only harness the power of one single tax shelter – the TFSA – to reap big gains. Finding a hundred bucks a week to put into assets averaging 7% over 35 years will deliver a nestegg of $786,000, of which $604,000 is tax-free growth’

yup. Start at 18 yr of age. And tell your kids they CANT touch the money, its their piggy bank leave it alone

did the math with my boys– their reaction when they saw the value of thir TFSA in 35 yrs? was beautiful….’are you sure dad”? LOL!!!!!!

#131 Smoking Man on 12.22.16 at 2:27 pm

So much fun watching TWTR crash and burn.

#132 IHCTD9 on 12.22.16 at 2:38 pm

#122 rainclouds on 12.22.16 at 12:58 pm
#112 IHCTD9

Timely opinion In the Chronically Horrible re Public Private employment, albeit in NS but applicable in just about every jurisdiction Civic/ Provincial/ Federal

http://thechronicleherald.ca/opinion/1426472-opinion-average-size-public-sector-%E2%80%98would-save-n.s.-1-billion%E2%80%99
——

I see McNeil is getting beat up right now by the usual public sector malcontent bullies ie. teachers. I’ll be watching, maybe he’ll just pay the union a few million to get them to shut up like Wynnie did here in Ontario.

This is the thing, no politician in Canada has the balls to shut these teachers unions down, and hey, at the end of the day – ALL of them are making out like bandits on the backs of taxpayers.

“The average privately-employed person in Nova Scotia makes $43,414 per year. The average provincial government wage is $61,859 per year, or 42.5 per cent more.”

Yikes!!!

It’s stuff like this that puts a steep negative trajectory on the right side of the laffer curve.

#133 jacetheace on 12.22.16 at 2:48 pm

Vancouver real estate prices face double-digit drop in 2017: LePage

http://www.theprovince.com/business/real-estate/vancouver+real+estate+prices+face+double+digit+drop+2017/12565090/story.html

#134 Bram on 12.22.16 at 3:06 pm

#129 the following sentence is SPOT ON…
did the math with my boys– their reaction when they saw the value of thir TFSA in 35 yrs? was beautiful….’are you sure dad”?

How did you do that?
My calculation comes close, but deviates: $743223

rate = 1.07 ** (1 / 52.0) # weekly growth
sum = 0
weeks = 35 * 52
while weeks:
sum = sum * rate
sum += 100
weeks += -1
print sum

#135 Bram on 12.22.16 at 3:17 pm

#133 Bram

Ah, Garth…. I found an error in your 35 year example!
A 7% growth in one year, does not mean a 7/52 percent growth per week.

As 52 weeks of (7/52) percent growth is a yearly 7¼ percent growth, not 7.

You can’t trivialize that ¼% because it will mean a difference of $40K over the term.

See my previous comment on the actual result.

I employed a financial calculator. Go argue with that. — Garth

#136 Tony on 12.22.16 at 3:24 pm

A new video out today on youtube for all who own or buy stocks and don’t know the definition of the word “ponzi”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fg-5-tCw35k

#137 GTA Housing Crunch on 12.22.16 at 3:30 pm

Hey GTA Bears, how is that predicted oversupply of condos for the past few years panning out? Oh, I see, not so good. Even condo prices are up this year….lol.

Oh well, maybe in a few more years of waiting :)

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/12/22/toronto-housing-supply-prices_n_13795900.html

#138 Bram on 12.22.16 at 3:32 pm

#134
I employed a financial calculator. Go argue with that. — Garth

I just tried to be helpful Garth, I figured it would be useful to you to know that this specific financial calculator gives incorrect results.

Perhaps an incentive to switch to another calculator program?

Then again, maybe you trust that calculator more than a random commenter on your blog. That is fine too.

Let’s not start shooting over a quarter point. — Garth

#139 skidMark on 12.22.16 at 3:34 pm

Old realtor trick. List a $1 million property for $699K and watch the sheep trot in, then outbid each other and end up paying above-market. Never fails. — Garth

Exactly.

And write it up in the media and the sheeple will read it up and pass it around

#140 Mark on 12.22.16 at 3:38 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/inflation-november-1.3908525

“Inflation rate cools to 1.2% on cheaper groceries and gasoline”

With inflation numbers this weak (and trending lower), not a chance that the BoC will be “following” the US Fed any time soon.

Won’t be of help to RE. With prices falling nationwide and the sector very clearly well past its peak and in significant overcapacity, any decreases to risk-free bond rates will be eaten up by rising risk premia.

The BoC will raise before the end of 2017. Mortgages will rise (are are) a lot sooner. — Garth

#141 comfortably numb on 12.22.16 at 4:32 pm

#82 Polls R Phake
Unless you are a 1%er working for the government. I wonder how many people know that 30% of public sector employees at BC Hydro and ICBC make over 100K per year with benefits and pensions. I personally know a paper pusher who makes 150K with all her perks. She pushes paper. She’s not a brain surgeon. Let the class warfare begin.
……………………………………………………………………….

you’re full of it, as usual. I work at one of those two crown corps. I am responsible for millions of dollars a year in expenditures. With benefits including pension my total compensation package this year will be $80k and that’s after close to a decade of working there. Directors don’t even make the kind of cake you talk about. Why don’t you provide some evidence to support the nonsense you are peddling…moron

#142 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 12.22.16 at 5:00 pm

GTA Housing Crunch on 12.22.16 at 3:30 pm
Hey GTA Bears, how is that predicted oversupply of condos for the past few years panning out? Oh, I see, not so good. Even condo prices are up this year….lol.

Oh well, maybe in a few more years of waiting :)

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/12/22/toronto-housing-supply-prices_n_13795900.html
—————————————————————–

LOL according to who? Realtors that REFUSE to open up their MLS system since their lies will be exposed?
Realtor propaganda working overtime as sales have dried up as no one can qualify.
Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#143 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 12.22.16 at 5:05 pm

A lot of out of work realtors posting nonsense. Happy Housing Crash Everyone!

#144 Nemesis on 12.22.16 at 8:16 pm

“Don’t bring fish into it.” — Garth

#HeDid,Or… #TheGoodAuldDays… #RumoursOnTheInternets… #CoExistingPeacefully… #&OtherBushMalaproprisms…

https://youtu.be/uO46ii3W07U?t=1m9s

#145 Millennial with Debt on 12.23.16 at 1:20 pm

Excellent post. Any advice for us millennials in managing student debt (e.g. OSAP)? I got $70k myself. Should I try to consolidate with TD? Or keep paying the government directly? Much appreciated.