The one-eighty

aircraft-modified

It the last twelve months the average house in Toronto gained 20.3% in value. In Vancouver, where prices are now declining, the year/year advance was 20.3%. Meanwhile the Toronto stock market, in the same time, has swelled 21.01%.

This is more telling when you consider that since its low in February, Bay Street has surged 28%. In that same period of time the average Vancouver house has lost $200,000, or roughly 11% of its value.

Coincidence? Nah.

The environment between the last snow and this one has changed dramatically – in just ten months. February’s investors were in a serous funk, looking down the pipe, seeing a gruesome year developing. China was plopping. ISIS was killing. Commodities were plunging. Markets losing. Billions piling into bonds that were paying nothing. Or less than nothing. Just to be safe.

Oh yeah, and Vancouver houses were flying off the shelf, as they were in Toronto. The flight was on into real assets – bricks and mortar and even gold (now down $250 an ounce in the last five months). Doom, gloom and pessimism had most financial investors questioning their portfolios, while the smart ones were out selling bonds, buying equities and loading up on preferreds.

For most of the past eight years that this pathetic blog has unfortunately been alive, the world ‘s been in a no-growth, quasi-deflationary, low-rate, low-yield, low inflation, crappy mode. First we had the credit crisis, which scared the bejesus out of everyone. Then commodities crashed, spanking Alberta. Interest rates cratered as bankers tried to shock the economy back to life. And volatility swept over us, spiking with the 2011 realization the US might be, gasp, running out of money. (It wasn’t.)

The expectations now have done a one-eighty. Markets expect governments to spend money building stuff, instead of buying bonds. Higher interest rates are being embraced as harbingers of robust economic growth. Lower taxes and fewer regs have corporations looking to boost revenues and profits. Stock markets are lifting in anticipation. And the lessening of competition that anti-globalization will bring (the next big event will be in France) means even more inflation.

The US economy has shifted into third gear. Unemployment’s at a nine-year low. Fifteen million jobs created in six years. Wages are rising. And a tighter-than-expected labour market could actually bring higher rates, faster, if a wage-price spiral starts to develop. Emperor Trump is expected to deliver more inflation, more deficits, more jobs, more stimulus, more pro-business conditions that should propel the Dow well past the 20,000 mark

Meanwhile preferreds, slagged here relentlessly when on sale and unloved, have surged 27% in price, while still delivering a fat dividend yield to investors. Real-return bonds, which rise with inflation (also dumped on by the macroeconomists in the steerage section) have broken ranks with other bonds and plumped nicely. Balanced portfolios are up double-digits after a year in which investors stared longingly at 1% brain-dead GICs or those ‘high-interest’ accounts offered by online Hungarian-Canadian Veterans’ Benevolent Agrarian Credit Unions in Manitoba.

So, in the bleak weeks, a balanced and diversified portfolio reduced volatility and preserved capital while markets suicided. During shocks like Brexit, rising bonds helped temper falling stocks. In the good times, the same assets in the same weightings have delivered a solid performance. In other words, if you build this thing correctly, ignore it completely, and stop reading useless blogs, you’ll be fine.

As for your house, well, not so much. Real estate feeds on cheap money, the flight of capital from financial assets and dumb Canadians thinking mortgages are “good debt.”

All three, so done.

113 comments ↓

#1 Theo on 12.20.16 at 6:18 pm

I think the bond buying nonsense is going to go down as one of the more idiotic “I can’t believe we did that” periods in economic history.

#2 NoName on 12.20.16 at 6:20 pm

#89 NEVER GIVE UP on 12.20.16 at 12:10 pm

I agree with you 100%, me thinks that you misunderstood my post a bit, buts ok, its probably because of my accent…

Now that you mention India, their latest quest to “curb” polution is with more polution, they will use a retired jet engine to create virtual chimeni and send polution up high in the sky, so basicly they are insted of having polution concetrated in one place and dealing wit ih there they are poluting other places to. I have to read article twice, because i was in disbelief after i red it first time, but on an another hand article have nice and cachi title.

Can jet engines clean up Delhi’s foul air?

https://goo.gl/8sw0Jn

friend of mine went to india few yrs bakand what he told me about polution in big citys is mind bogeling,…

#3 Asama on 12.20.16 at 6:34 pm

First!

#4 conan on 12.20.16 at 6:39 pm

Plumped nicely = Plunged nicely

XRB down 4.25 % in last 30 days. What funds are you holding? I thought you were an ETF warrior……

#5 Doug t on 12.20.16 at 6:40 pm

It’s better to give than it is to receive

Take a moment away from your cushy life and give to those in need. They need it more than your balanced portfolio

Peace on Earth

#6 Randy on 12.20.16 at 6:45 pm

Screw real estate. I’d rather have more planes, motorcycles and cars.

#7 David P on 12.20.16 at 6:48 pm

“Meanwhile the Toronto stock market, in the same time, has swelled 21.01%.”

Garth, you’re bending facts here, if you bought stocks precisely at February lows you would be up +20℅, but a buy and holder of Canadian stocks has not made any money in 2 years, since TSX is still below its 2014 summer highs.

Year/year gains. Facts are facts. — Garth

#8 VicPaul on 12.20.16 at 6:55 pm

Hungarian-Canadian Veterans’ Benevolent Agrarian Credit Unions in Manitoba. – Garth

Hehehe – these belly laughs, mixed in with the invaluable financial advice….keeps me comin’ back.

#9 Jimmy 2Knuckles on 12.20.16 at 6:56 pm

As an experienced Poker enthusiast, I believe that 2017 will go like this; the investor will start off with a full house, but will end up with 2 pair.

The 2017 stock market will try to bluff its way to winnings, but in the end you can’t win with 2 pair!

#10 mike from mtl on 12.20.16 at 6:57 pm

I still have doubts about RRB, those in theory should be a winner however they still tanked along with ‘long’ bonds.

Compare VAB to say XRB.

#11 Polls R Phake on 12.20.16 at 6:58 pm

Mr Cool Surfer Dude (the PM) was on the radio today telling us how Canadians WANT a carbon tax.

Did I miss a referendum?

#12 k on 12.20.16 at 6:59 pm

Vancouver house sales are plummeting fast !

#13 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 12.20.16 at 7:04 pm

Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#14 RentYVR on 12.20.16 at 7:06 pm

Yup, been a good year to be invested. The interest rate trend line is still pointing downward (at least here in Canada), but that won’t be enough to save the suckers who plowed into VanRe. That said, markets have probably overacted on the positive here, so long bonds starting to look good. And preferreds are a terrible investment, sacrifice future growth and take on i/r risk. Buy the stock of you like the company or buy the bond for yield.

#15 InvestorsFriend on 12.20.16 at 7:09 pm

Fact Check in the Real Return Isle Please

“Real-return bonds, which rise with inflation (also dumped on by the macroeconomists in the steerage section) have broken ranks with other bonds and plumped nicely.”

**************************************
Real return YIELDs on the bank of Canada site are up from a ridiculous 0.20% a couple of months ago to a still measly 0.65% now.

I would dare say that means the value of those real return bonds that existed a couple of months ago are down and not up. (Shriveled as opposed to plumped.)

Real return bonds are “supposed” to be fairly indifferent to inflation. If inflation is 2% they give an extra 2% in yield. If inflation is 5% they give an extra 5%. But the extra is offset by inflation (erosion of purchase power) so that should be a wash.

On top of this action however the market yield on real returns does vary. So they can protect from inflation but not from changes in the real interest rate.

If inflation is expected and people flock to real return bonds then their yields should drop and prices plump as mentioned by Garth. Unless I am mistaken the opposite occurred the last few weeks. (Real return yield up, and therefore prices down)

Fact Checkers?

#16 INSANE IN THE MEMBRANE on 12.20.16 at 7:10 pm

3.5MILL IN TEXAS

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4052800/Making-splash-Oil-industry-CEO-lists-Texas-mansion-backyard-WATER-PARK-3-5million.html

3.5MILL IN GREATER VAN

https://www.estateblock.com/vancouver-real-estate/5626-elizabeth-st-vancouver-bc-v5y-3j9-mls-r2124080-1

https://www.estateblock.com/vancouver-real-estate/2821-e-brdway-vancouver-bc-v5m-1y9-mls-r2125075-1

#17 Sugarlips on 12.20.16 at 7:15 pm

Thanks for another great year of entertainment and advice Garth, if your posts continue to curtail our house horny urges then you are doing an excellent public service.

Can you clarify your Vancouver numbers it reads as if prices rose 20% in the month of Jan and then fell 11% the remainder of 2017?

Merry Christmas fellow blog dogs

#18 InvestorsFriend on 12.20.16 at 7:15 pm

A Cloud In Every Silver Lining?

#7 David P on 12.20.16 at 6:48 pm said:

but a buy and holder of Canadian stocks has not made any money in 2 years, since TSX is still below its 2014 summer highs.

***********************************
Stocks make money over time. Volatility provides opportunity.

Of course stocks are usually down from the all-time peak since they don’t tend to peak every day. But they do rise over the long term.

And who holds just the Canadian stock index?

#19 firebird on 12.20.16 at 7:25 pm

Wow…since Brexit, T2 and Trump things are looking rosy. It is the new way. Old boys and school is out. Just sayin.

#20 Money Miser on 12.20.16 at 7:41 pm

I wouldn’t get too excited about the TSX, even though 2016 has been a hell of a year. I moved most of my Canadian holdings into US holdings a month before Trump got voted in and it’s been glorious ever since.

Not only the soaring stock markets but also the ever advancing USD. This double whammy effect has made unhedged US stocks a beautiful thing!

#21 Ace Goodheart on 12.20.16 at 7:43 pm

RE: “Meanwhile the Toronto stock market, in the same time, has swelled 21.01%.”

Yup it’s the beginning of another stock market bubble. This won’t end well. Fortunately those of us who understand real estate speculation, also understand how stock markets work and how companies are valued.

Get ready for people to lose lots of money in the stock market….

Why? — Garth

#22 Old Man Too on 12.20.16 at 7:56 pm

#2 NoName India has learned that the Solution to Pollution is Dilution

#23 CL on 12.20.16 at 8:03 pm

I was one of those buying when everyone was selling. I’ve had a great year except for cash dividends. Well over 20% some over 30. It is incredibly difficult to buy when the waters are rough as it goes against human human nature to dive in than to run and takes a lot of training your brain to do so. But it is definitely required to go against the grain in the markets if one is to survive vs. going with the herd.

#24 Kevin Li on 12.20.16 at 8:06 pm

My house I bought in 2014 and lived in for a couple years…I sold it in October 2016.

Profit over $800,000.

Like stocks real estate is about picking the right ones (areas).

RE growth and stock price growth is NOT a zero sum game.

Higher stock prices means more money for people to put into their home (which is the right area).

#25 mouldyinYVR on 12.20.16 at 8:06 pm

http://kcts9.org/programs/in-close/news/foreign-home-buyers-set-sights-seattle

Barbara’s take on the state of real estate……

#26 RentYVR on 12.20.16 at 8:07 pm

@#7 David P: “but a buy and holder of Canadian stocks has not made any money in 2 years, since TSX is still below its 2014 summer highs.”

Wrong – many stocks pay dividends amigo, so in fact someone who bought at the peak and has just held would have still made money.

#27 Timberr on 12.20.16 at 8:14 pm

The BoC is trying other methods to get the message out about indebted households and inflated house prices from Senior Policy Advisor Joshua Slive:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rR8TqaHIOu4

#28 Pete on 12.20.16 at 8:18 pm

Mr Cool Surfer Dude (the PM) was on the radio today telling us how Canadians WANT a carbon tax.
Did I miss a referendum?
————————————
No, his father did away with the part of Canadian law which stated that having enough names on a petition (I believe it was something like 300000) would force the government to hold a binding referendum on the issue laid out in the petition.

#29 Assessed Nightmare on 12.20.16 at 8:22 pm

“Meanwhile the Toronto stock market, in the same time, has swelled 21.01%.”

Garth, you’re bending facts here, if you bought stocks precisely at February lows you would be up +20℅, but a buy and holder of Canadian stocks has not made any money in 2 years, since TSX is still below its 2014 summer highs.

Year/year gains. Facts are facts. — Garth

———–

I have to agree.

I checked my real return – my actual profit/loss – on my balanced portfolio and over two years its up a little from Dec 2014.

Its up because my portfolio size almost doubled from my contributions, not from invested growth. 2015 was a complete write off, and 2016 recouped the 2015 declines and edged the portfolio up a little. I am happy that 2015 declines have been restored but I am not jumping up and down, especially in light of every RE market in BC and ON going up at minimum 20% in prices. My returns over the last five years are not 7% annualized – that is for sure.

Wait until the 2017 assessments are out in BC coming January. Assessed values across the province are going to be up at least 40% compared to values 2 years earlier. That is totally going to screw the market as no one will have any clue as to whether assessed value is a good benchmark.

Its going to be a slow grind this Spring as homeowners will point to their assessed and will not take anything off their prices while buyers will say WTF, that house was 40% less 2 years ago. Messy times a coming.

Obviously you have a poorly balanced or incorrectly diversified portfolio. — Garth

#30 Doghouse Dweller on 12.20.16 at 8:23 pm

#10 mike from mtl

I still have doubts about RRB
————————————–
Real Returns indicate that investing in Government inflation promises and rigged CPI calculations is a guaranteed money losing proposition. Like a lot of other so called investments.

#31 Corporate Canada loves Trump on 12.20.16 at 8:23 pm

Get on with the flow…

http://www.businessinsider.com/corporate-canada-loves-donald-trump-2016-12

#32 NoName on 12.20.16 at 8:30 pm

#16 INSANE IN THE MEMBRANE on 12.20.16 at 7:10 pm

Funny thing, I was googling for Cypress Hill and some of their songs other day… what brings some memories

90s, everyone was buying an Intell Pentium 100Mhz, one that could do math, all friends had Intel and I was only one with Cyrix’s 5×86 poor over clocked 486, and all of them had HP5L and I had some archaic LX-xxx maybe LQ-xxx Epson 9pin dot matrix printer. but what I had, they didn’t, lighting fast us-robotics 56k modem.
anyway to get to point, frend comes over very late at night everyone is at sleep, Alta Vista Cypress Hill lyrics and moron hits PRINT. Few moments later my old man stuck his head thru bedroom door and sad, whats wrong with you guys, are you stupid?
Doah.

Cypress Hill
Insane In The Brain
https://youtu.be/RijB8wnJCN0

#33 YVR Update on 12.20.16 at 8:41 pm

Vancouver average down because sales mix changed.

Condos are more expensive than ever before.

#34 Mark on 12.20.16 at 8:44 pm

but a buy and holder of Canadian stocks has not made any money in 2 years, since TSX is still below its 2014 summer highs.

That’s true. The TSX is only barely above 2008 highs. Buying during lengthy consolidation periods usually offers outsized returns eventually. Unfortunately most end up piling into the “markets” when enthusiasm is at its highest, and proceed to tell their kids, and their grand-kids that the “stock market” is a horrible place to invest when results inevitably are poor.

This is why balanced portfolios, dollar-cost averaging, and methodical rebalancing is important. What Garth et al do isn’t exactly rocket science, but what they do is provide a structured framework, with professional advice on a whole spectrum of matters, that in most cases, easily provides value in excess of the incremental professional fees compared to most amateur DIY strategies (ie: leaving one’s money in the care of “[email protected]”).

#35 Context on 12.20.16 at 8:46 pm

#9 Jimmy 2Knuckles:- I play poker nightly and two pair will beat any one pair and any high card. Come to our internet game some night as you will be our mark.

#36 Lol... on 12.20.16 at 8:52 pm

Tsx 10 yr return? Has it broken the 5% mark yet ? Nope . Add a 1.5 or so if you were balanced . Meanwhile my home has more than tripled in value …and I own it….I can rent out the basement for those who can’t buy a home…,,let me know

A balanced and diversified portfolio does not contain just the TSX. Invalid comparison. This is not a contest, but rather about not having all eggs in a single basket. — Garth

#37 Smoking Man on 12.20.16 at 9:13 pm

Is the Canadian economy screwed, yup.

T2 just did a deal with Obummer to ban artic old drilling. Lady minute kind of thing.

Ah, does any one think Trump is stupid. Does Justin not realize there’s going to be consequences for that.

One thing to openly emasculated yourself, but openly disrespecting the most powerful man in the world come Jan 20th.

What an idiot.

#38 InvestorsFriend on 12.20.16 at 9:24 pm

Illogical?

#23 CL on 12.20.16 at 8:03 pm said:

I was one of those buying when everyone was selling.

**************************************
You mean you were buying at a time when investors had pushed prices down? A time when the price had to come down in order to make demand for buying equal to the supply of selling?

In dollar terms the volume of buyers and sellers are always precisely equal in every market every day and every minute and every month…

#39 Andrew Woburn on 12.20.16 at 9:29 pm

“Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. has effectively broken up a 30-year monopoly related to the custody of mortgage records in the country …

CST Trust Company, a Canadian-based entity which provides financial and administration support for the financial industry, said last week it had received certification to act as a third-party to store documents related to the mortgages of millions of Canadians.

Computer Share Inc., an Australian-based company, has been the only custodian of that information until now but that is about to change and CST says it has already signed up one major Canadian bank, a move that needed approval from CMHC.

“Like any monopoly, it’s not the best type of service, so no one has really tried to penetrate this market and do any type of good work like digitizing mortgage records and working to a more electronic solution,” said Frank Turzanski, a senior vice-president with CST who will head up the operation.

The electronic repository, with CST as the registered title holder, will track beneficial ownership of every mortgage from origination through its sale to investors and subsequent securitization. The company say this provides the issuers, originators and investors with easily searchable, on-demand access to specific asset information whenever they need it and eliminates delays and potential inaccuracies. It will also have storage of physical documents off-site.”

Wow, imagine having a searchable database. Totally 20th century! What the hell have they been doing at CHMC up till now? Working with quill pens?

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/cmhc-ends-30-year-monopoly-of-the-custody-of-mortgage-records-in-canada

#40 Smoking Man on 12.20.16 at 9:34 pm

The Deplorable effect.

Until Hillary branded any non progressive a basket of Deplorables I say very little chatter on facebook openly supporting Trump. Then she did it. And face book explodes. Real names with real political opinions. That’s when I knew 100% Trump was going to clinic it..

I guess the carry over from Canadian Deplorables has had an effect on Canadian political chat.

Facebook exploding with negative chatter against T2 and Wynne now. I even sent out a scathing chirp with my real name attached… It’s a first for me.

Conservative landslide in the next Ontario election whether Wynee is there or not.

Conservative landslide in the next federal election if O’Leary’s at the controls.

Who wants to bet against me….?

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#41 skidMark on 12.20.16 at 9:36 pm

It the last twelve months the average house in Toronto gained 20.3% in value.

STOP THE INSANITY!

#42 Aggregator on 12.20.16 at 9:44 pm

Meanwhile, today CMHC/Govt increased the annual guarantee limit for NHA MBS to $130B from $105B for 2017.

What CMHC says and does is two different things. Watch the players, not the data.

#43 Smoking Man on 12.20.16 at 9:52 pm

I would even switch teams for the right price. I’m an entrepreneur more than a political activistist. If T2 or Butts called me up for help. They dangled a big carrot Infront of my face. Hell even an big add for my book would do it.

I know how to fight the right… I know how to fight the left.

Never happen, you can not convince a progressive to sway from the rotten sections of there ideology. Their programing from kindergarten, you are smarter than anyone else if you follow our script.

People with brains write there oun scripts, never follow, and never allow themselves to be monkeys. Actors. Memorise, regurgitate and entertain.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#44 TRT on 12.20.16 at 10:07 pm

#37 Smoking Man on 12.20.16 at 9:13 pm
Is the Canadian economy screwed, yup.

T2 just did a deal with Obummer to ban artic old drilling. Lady minute kind of thing.

Ah, does any one think Trump is stupid. Does Justin not realize there’s going to be consequences for that.

One thing to openly emasculated yourself, but openly disrespecting the most powerful man in the world come Jan 20th.

What an idiot.

———-

He just does whats he told. Nothing between the ears. No disrespect to other teachers but people don’t graduate high school and say they want to become drama teachers.

He is destroying any respect that I had for his father by his ignorance in selling out Canada.

#45 Ace Goodheart on 12.20.16 at 10:09 pm

“Get ready for people to lose lots of money in the stock market….

Why? — Garth”

– speculative valuations not based on fundamentals. Usual bubble stuff. The world is a series of flawed bandwagons. Everyone jumps on one after the other until the wheels fall off, then it’s on to the next one.

You have much to learn about markets. There is no equity crash looming in North America. — Garth

#46 Smoking Man on 12.20.16 at 10:18 pm

I have 4 full time employees, 2 contractors when I get busy. I would never hire anyone under 40. Can’t trust them.

There is a reason why republicans nerve got hacked.
My trips to Boston last year.

Keys me emails.

3567565533774356773227788
5677886545678884477899445

Long time dogs. You all remeber keys me, the little app that CSIS made me pull from the web. My secret little company. That sells text, not email encryption. Fool proof.

Under disclosure agreements I can’t name who my clients are or how many I have. Source code deleted after every implemention. Selling point. Passable deniability.

I can’t even advertise publicly.. My clients pay through the nose. And are happy to.

How can I hire a safe space millennials to not go rouge. Yes, they live in 500 sqft boxes, ride bikes to the office. Work for peanuts, but my buz is about trust. And they are to flaky to risk my lively hood on.

You want to go Rouge, see star wars.
Go see to movie, reinforce your teachers lessons that make you feel you have made it…

Looking for partners in Europe and Australia.
Looking for over 50, white males, that know what shiblith means.

Dr drunken bad ass Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#47 Self Directed on 12.20.16 at 10:22 pm

#27 Timberr on 12.20.16 at 8:14 pm

The BoC is trying other methods to get the message out about indebted households and inflated house prices from Senior Policy Advisor Joshua Slive:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rR8TqaHIOu4
——————————–
1500 views in one day, not bad!

cool graphics show how easily the housing market can spiral out of control. I’m ready, just in case.

#48 Victor V on 12.20.16 at 10:25 pm

Property taxes in Brampton, Mississauga soar above Toronto’s

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2016/12/20/property-taxes-in-brampton-mississauga-soar-above-torontos.html

The already glaring gap between property taxes in Brampton and Mississauga compared to Toronto, is getting even wider.

The GTA’s second and third largest cities just passed their respective budgets for 2017 last week, and things continue to look grim for homeowners, with tax hikes above inflation and questions about how Mississauga and Brampton will manage the coming onslaught of infrastructure needs, many of which are already being put off.

#49 Arfmooocat on 12.20.16 at 10:34 pm

#16 INSANE IN THE MEMBRANE

But Vancouver’s climate is 80% rain… your going to pay for that.

#50 nonplused on 12.20.16 at 10:35 pm

#11 Polls R Phake

I want a carbon tax on all the CO2 that comes out of Mr. Surfer Dude’s mouth went he lies, or I mean talks. I’m thinking $10,000 per word out to be about right.

#51 Pollster on 12.20.16 at 10:42 pm

It’s old news, but did anyone else observe how Hitlery had more “faithless” electors yesterday than any presidential candidate in history, even though it made no difference really? I read eight electors turned on her and voted for Sanders, Colin Powell of all people he wasn’t even running, and one for some native tribal leader. Trump lost 2, which while pretty rare isn’t unpresidented. And either way it all made no difference. For good or bad Trump is going to be POTUS for the next 4 years or if they off him Pence.

I’m a little disappointed though I was expecting more in the way of riots. Oh well I suppose there is always inauguration day. Got to wait until Jan. 20th for that but it should be good. Grab some cheezies and a beer and watch it on TV hopefully from this side of the border.

#52 Smoking Man on 12.20.16 at 10:47 pm

DELETED

#53 conan on 12.20.16 at 10:59 pm

#35 Context on 12.20.16 at 8:46 pm

Depends on the poker game. 2 pair is more often then not a lousy hand in Texas Holdem.

I played a tournament once and I got dealt 2 pair about 10 times over a 12 hand time period. It knocked me out of the tournament. Each time my two pair got beat by someone all in, and getting lucky on the river.

#54 canali on 12.20.16 at 11:30 pm

what is wrong with you all?!…don’t you know that you should be able to buy more home even if it is beyond your means!
;)
christy clark, BC premiere:
huffington post: ”Don’t Want More Debt? You ‘Don’t Live In Real World,’ Christy Clark Says”
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/12/20/christy-clark_n_13751800.html

#55 Cici on 12.20.16 at 11:40 pm

#6 Randy

You forgot boats, but that’s the right idea.

#56 Polls R Phake on 12.20.16 at 11:41 pm

#50 nonplused on 12.20.16 at 10:35 pm
#11 Polls R Phake

I want a carbon tax on all the CO2 that comes out of Mr. Surfer Dude’s mouth went he lies, or I mean talks. I’m thinking $10,000 per word out to be about right.

___________________________________________

Now thatPresident Trump is in charge, the global warming hoax will be revealed to the world.

#57 Burnaby Guy on 12.20.16 at 11:43 pm

A balanced and diversified portfolio does not contain just the TSX. Invalid comparison. This is not a contest, but rather about not having all eggs in a single basket. — Garth

I agree with the not to put all eggs in a single basket part but come on Garth, you are the one started this post with the comparison that you tell people it’s a invalid comparison. It seems it’s a contest only when it’s in your favour.

#58 holyfart on 12.21.16 at 12:21 am

in Calgary now 10 years…when is a good time to buy? I also am looking into buying in the west kootenays that are almost at zero for available product since 2008..a sign that it’s going to go up. I want to keep a place in the kootenays for beach, snowmobiling and fun. not so much investment. can afford $300k Calgary and $100k slocan lake/trout lake (west kootenay)

#59 jay on 12.21.16 at 12:40 am

This is Christy Clark . http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/05/christy-clark-says-no-taxing-foreign-real-estate-investors/ http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/foreign-buyers-tax-data-1.3772158

#60 paulo on 12.21.16 at 12:48 am

On another subject- Canadian Federal politics
Whats the dogs take on the cons with Keven O’leary running for the prestigious post next election ?
Personally i hope he runs
in the interim i wounder if he might take a independent position as chief negotiator on behalf of Canada in the event of a revisit on the nafta deal?
Unlike our U.S. Friends it is looking like some of the best and sharpest Knives in our proverbial drawer (canadian)
are actually interested in public office

#61 NoOneOfConsequence on 12.21.16 at 3:10 am

Well….so I broke your rules Garth, and invested in individual stocks. I did however follow the spirit of your guidelines on diversification in the broad sense of the term.
I made sure that I purchased from every sector, across industries.

Being a computer guy – I did fully develop a database so I can track everything about my purchases, and how the value of the portfolio changes over time. At one point in 2016 I was down to only 3% return, but pretty much held the 5% line every month.

I have been investing a portion of my take home every month now this year.

Including the purchase fees, my return on investment in my TFSA for 2016 to date = 9.28%.
My current dividend payout rate is 6.26%.

It’s amazing and I am so happy I started…even with very little money.

To all the blog dogs – Garth’s numbers are exactly in line with what I have directly experienced. I have awesome documentation to back it up too. Monthly moves of stock prices, clearly demonstrating how when one sector moves down, another moves up…things keep ticking along.

Garth, I think you need to remind everyone about the fees associated with single stocks too.

The pain factor of ‘low trading fees’ is that there are still too many fees on individual stocks.
I’m with TD and pay $9.99 on the buy, and $9.99 on the sell.
I’m just small potatoes, so investing a grand at a time means that I am guaranteed to lose 1% on every buy.

In spite of the fees…a NOOBIE at investing, not absolutely following Garth’s guidelines still sees a healthy return in his first year.

In 2017…hello preferreds and ETFs. Time to get serious and quit playing around.

Thanks for what you do. It’s making a difference.

#62 Ace Goodheart on 12.21.16 at 6:56 am

Re: #48 Victor V:

Brampton and Mississauga are the great “development fee revenue” cities. They made their money off of developing every piece of available land they had. Now there is no more land, they have to start taxing people.

RE: “You have much to learn about markets. There is no equity crash looming in North America. — Garth”

Ahh, you have read me wrong (or more likely, I have been unclear). I don’t believe there is an equity crash looming in North America. You index fund investors will probably do fine. People like me who understand how to value companies will also likely not be hurt by the rush into the stock markets that is happening right now.

The people who will get trashed by this latest market trend are those who will buy into the speculative bubbles that always happen in bull markets. These bubbles hurt index investors but marginally. They make it so that your indexes are slightly overvalued. For the most part though it is not a perceptible thing. These bubbles also are really good things for value investors. We just sell during the upswings and then buy into the crashes.

The markets are very similar to housing in terms of bubble formation. 20 years ago a house was just a house, people bought them if they wanted to have a family, otherwise you avoided them because they were expensive to maintain, difficult to sell and a mortgage was a life sentence.

#63 pBrasseur on 12.21.16 at 7:52 am

Normally this Trump rally should be worrisome, markets that go up or down very fast based on the perception that something might happen with the economy make me uncomfortable.

But this is not so bad. The reason is not that I think markets are right in their expectations for the economy under Trump (although they might be…), the actual reason why I think this rally is justified is that markets (more specifically the bond market) have been wrong for too long and are simply readjusting. To put it plainly bonds are still priced for Armageddon when it’s becoming clearer every day that Armageddon is not happening anytime soon.

What we are seeing now is not a rally, it’s a correction, a long overdue and IMO appropriate correction in the bond market. As risk aversion subsides low yield bonds are left behind and the stock market benefits, this is normal. This is why I’m relatively confident this «rally» has legs.

#64 CRA Snooper on 12.21.16 at 7:54 am

Greetings Garth Turner (SIN #411500***)

You may have heard some unfair reports recently about CRA staff looking into private files of Canadians just for the hell of it.

Well, it’s true. Get over it. Sometimes this work is soul -crushingly boring!! People do what they do.

Today I am here to share:

Found some interesting filing information about the blog dog known as “Freedom First” on here.

According to his 2012-2015 returns, Freedom First has been on EI for over 100 weeks in that period. He works part time as a cashier at 7-Eleven. His main source of income, 80% of the total, has been support payments from his ex-wife.

Just thought you’d like to know…… ;)

#65 pBrasseur on 12.21.16 at 8:18 am

#34 Mark on 12.20.16 at 8:44 pm

That’s true. The TSX is only barely above 2008 highs

The TSX in a very bad index to buy, heavily dependent on the price of oil and commodities and small enough to be seriously affected by the demise of one or two large companies (Nortel, Valent, RIM, Bombardier, etc…).

Yet there are some very good Canadian businesses, but you need to be careful and selective, this is a market that is not regulated as well as the US market (beware of small caps manipulation…) and funds (index or mutual) are often heavily weighted by players you should stay away from.

Contrary to what many believe Canada is not the greatest-safest place to invest and that goes for its stock market as well.

#66 Londoner on 12.21.16 at 8:45 am

“Real-return bonds, which rise with inflation (also dumped on by the macroeconomists in the steerage section)”

Not me – I’ve been mentioning the merits of inflation linked gilts (RRBs for you).

But what’s up with the 20% rise in real estate? Rates haven’t changed, affordability hasn’t improved so what explains this move? Beyond speculation there has to be some other factor(s).

#67 };-) aka Devil's Advocate-) aka Devil's Advocate on 12.21.16 at 8:58 am

Demographics, the backstory to all history and the best predictor of the future.

Millennials; 15 – 35 +/- years old now
GenX; 35 – 55 +/- years old now
Boomer; 55 – 75 +/- years old now

There are still a whole lot of Millennials who are going to be setting up house soon. Be it rented or owned someone is paying for it. Millennials are a unique set, as were we all. You need, and they expect you to, develop an good understanding of them to work with them. They appreciate your experience as one of many helping them make an important decision. Don’t be surprised to see four sets of parents in tow (her dad with his new wife, her mom with her new husband and so too with his parents).

GenX is kinda settled for now.

Boomers… not so many opting for those “retirement homes” as we were expecting. We’re all living longer and Boomers are doing it with much more vitality such that the family home still compliments their lifestyle and provides a secure base camp for all that follow.

While the above is generalizations I see in my own business, I’m sure you too can see how demographics is influencing your business and the overall economy.

As for the future? I don’t see anything tanking terribly. It won’t match the exuberance of the past couple years. I’m working with a disproportionately large number of buyers which indicates to me that there is still strong demand and limited supply.

#68 IHCTD9 on 12.21.16 at 9:19 am

#21 Ace Goodheart on 12.20.16 at 7:43 pm

…Fortunately those of us who understand real estate speculation…

______

Who’s that?

You?

#69 IHCTD9 on 12.21.16 at 9:24 am

#22 Old Man Too on 12.20.16 at 7:56 pm

#2 NoName India has learned that the Solution to Pollution is Dilution
____

They’re right, PPM is the game.

Same way I used to get a couple of my old clunkers through the old Ontario Drive Clean sniffer test – a couple of strategic exhaust leaks tends to clean those emissions levels right up!

Don’t hate the playa, hate the game… :)

#70 ChrisPitzel on 12.21.16 at 10:06 am

Toronto real estate is BOOOMING!

https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2016/12/02/toronto-house-prices-climb-more-than-22.html

for now

#71 McLovin on 12.21.16 at 10:22 am

The market is always more about behavioural economics than fundamentals. Ride it while the surf’s up. Buy some new surfboards when it’s down. Last February and March were a great time to buy some good quality boards on sale.

#72 Capt. Serious on 12.21.16 at 10:33 am

I still have doubts about RRB, those in theory should be a winner however they still tanked along with ‘long’ bonds.

RRBs are confusing. They fluctuate in value both from changes in nominal interest rates AND from changes in inflation expectations. What they’re really protecting you from is an UNEXPECTED inflation increase. Because (duh) if the inflation was known it would already be priced into the bonds. RRBs only pay off higher than nominal bonds when inflation exceeds the expected amount. Canadian RRBs by and large are long duration bonds, so they are very sensitive to changes in nominal interest rates. As a diversification instrument they’re nice because they’re not highly correlated with other asset classes.

#73 InvestorsFriend on 12.21.16 at 10:42 am

Snooping on the Snoops and imposing harsh penalties

What of the privacy rights of the snooping CRA workers which have been trampled by management looking into which files the staff looked at? And with devastating consequences (getting fired from a government job is life-altering). Why not impose a serious but not life-altering punishment such as an official reprimand on file or, if legal, dock a week or a month’s pay or take away some vacation entitlement?

Also firing should probably only be considered if the snooped information was actually acted on in some way. To merely look at a file should not be a firing offence. Especially not if the file was effectively left out in the open for such viewing.

Sure they should not be snooping. But you don’t leave the Christmas presents in plain view in an unlocked room and then disown your kids if they look. Management deserves a very good part of the blame here.

#74 S.Bby on 12.21.16 at 10:46 am

#61 NoOneOfConsequence

You may be better off buying TD e-series funds. There is no commission to buy or sell those and they have sector funds to choose from. They also allow DRIPs and small buy/sell $ amounts. The funds are flexible and designed for smaller investors.

#75 Canadian educational system needs .. on 12.21.16 at 10:54 am

Change . Desperately .

Personal finance must be mandatory in high school . An introductory course in grade 10 and a more advanced course in grade 11

Basic basic education is needed such as budgeting , understanding a lease , term insurance vs whole/universal, mortgages , investing

Canadians give away thousands and thousands dollars a year . No one should be using an advisor that works with
% of assets under management. NEVER. Flat fee – its the wave of the future, thankfully

#76 InvestorsFriend on 12.21.16 at 11:00 am

Real Return Bonds

No argument with the balanced approach but the following statement is mistaken:

“Real-return bonds, which rise with inflation (also dumped on by the macroeconomists in the steerage section) have broken ranks with other bonds and plumped nicely.”

Conan at 4 and I at number 13 pointed out this is not correct.

*************************************
Real Return Bonds are long term bonds. REGULAR long-term bonds fall precipitously with a unexpected and material rise in inflation because the coupon is not compensating for the unexpected inflation.

Real Return bonds compensate for inflation and are designed to just HOLD their value in the face of unexpected inflation. That is a great result. But they should NOT be expected to rise with inflation.

In recent weeks they happened to shrivel (and not plump) probably because the real yield had been bizarrely bid down to almost nothing (O.20% per year ).

Real Return bonds should not be expected to march in lock-step with regular bonds. It so happens though that in the last number of weeks they by coincidence more or less did.

In fact they should have been expected to so called break rank by remaining stable but in fact they fell.

#77 OMERS on 12.21.16 at 11:05 am

So i Guess the only safe bet is a balanced portfolio of ETF’s then….

Not exactly. The safe bet is a diversified and balanced life. — Garth

#78 i agree on 12.21.16 at 11:10 am

‘That’s true. The TSX is only barely above 2008 highs

The TSX in a very bad index to buy, heavily dependent on the price of oil and commodities and small enough to be seriously affected by the demise of one or two large companies (Nortel, Valent, RIM, Bombardier, etc…).’

absolutely. The country is so dependent on commodities. Just have a look at poor Alberta.

Canada makes up approx 4% of world GDP. To heavily invest in the TSX would be borderline crazy

I have previously stated a reasonable exposure to Canadian growth assets – a minority position. — Garth

#79 Grooby on 12.21.16 at 11:17 am

Is the Canadian economy screwed, yup.

T2 just did a deal with Obummer to ban artic old drilling. Lady minute kind of thing.

Ah, does any one think Trump is stupid. Does Justin not realize there’s going to be consequences for that.

One thing to openly emasculated yourself, but openly disrespecting the most powerful man in the world come Jan 20th.

What an idiot.

———————————————————-

Donald Trump has a vocabulary of a Grade 4 kid, and thinks he’s infallible, which is the widely seen as the most obvious sign of low intelligence. He’s got zero impulse control, and is suckered into even the most obvious of lies.

So yes, he is an idiot. It isn’t even up for debate.

I respect a person who doesn’t kow-tow to idiocy more than a Quisling.

#80 IHCTD9 on 12.21.16 at 11:19 am

#66 Londoner on 12.21.16 at 8:45 am

But what’s up with the 20% rise in real estate? Rates haven’t changed, affordability hasn’t improved so what explains this move? Beyond speculation there has to be some other factor(s).
____________________________________________

Here is my take:

Rates dropped, buyers slowly figured out they could borrow previously unheard of sums for an affordable payment. Massive demand was created as new buyers previously unable to get a mortgage were admitted to the market, and move up buyers started pining for that 7 figure mcmansion that was now a possibility. Before too long, anyone that could fog a mirror could get a mortgage, and everyone fought over the primo areas driving the prices thru the roof as RE agents tested the market’s willingness to pay a premium.

Those that won the bidding war gloated both over their new teardown, and how much they forked over for it. Now, everyone was a “millionaire” throwing money around like it was free (because it was). It went straight to the new buyers heads like a right hook from Mike Tyson. If you were “in da club”, you could crap on any basement dweller or renter. Folks moved up the food chain with a house. A line between “smart and rich” vs “dumb and poor” began to form, and emotions drove people to want to “escape” to RE owner status.

Big city folks all know what their neighbours are driving, and what their co-workers are buying. Urban buyers can become ruled by their emotions, keeping up with the Joneses, FOMO, consumer euphoria, status, emotional insecurity, greed.

Now, cumulating in a whirlwind of bad decision making on all fronts with a universal consensus that this is the new normal. No one wants to see the party end – fear has not crept in just yet. Owners still have jobs and are not really needing to sell. Specuvestors need prices to keep going up and decide to rent at a loss to “wait out” the “dip” in the market. Only the very newest of buyers have been jolted. Every other newer buyer still has years before their term ends and has to face the music.

The mere presence of fundamental changes is not enough when folks don’t want to acknowledge them. They’ll need a personal bite in the @ss to make it real . “Everyone is doing fine, nothing to worry about”. It’ll need to be a co worker, family member, friend, or neighbour.

IMHO, the GTA/YVR markets are currently running on residual emotions. This could last for a while yet, something needs to really twist the knife and send fear rippling.

I will say with Trump, Yellen, the direction of our economy, and Trudeau’s lack of grey matter certainly seem to have the stage set for an @ss kicking party in a couple years for the GTA/YVR markets.

#81 Renter's Revenge! on 12.21.16 at 11:37 am

#65 pBrasseur on 12.21.16 at 8:18 am

The TSX in a very bad index to buy, heavily dependent on the price of oil and commodities and small enough to be seriously affected by the demise of one or two large companies (Nortel, Valeant, RIM, Bombardier, etc…).

Yet there are some very good Canadian businesses, but you need to be careful and selective, this is a market that is not regulated as well as the US market (beware of small caps manipulation…) and funds (index or mutual) are often heavily weighted by players you should stay away from.

Contrary to what many believe Canada is not the greatest-safest place to invest and that goes for its stock market as well.

====================================

I was going say that the TSX is garbage, but you put it much more eloquently!

I would add that there are many successful companies in Canada, but they’re mostly privately owned. The TSX, on the other hand, is mainly companies that either no one wants to take private, or ones that can’t be taken private, like the banks and railways.

#82 Barb on 12.21.16 at 11:55 am

“…fewer regs”.

Not in B.C.
Pity.

#83 oncebittwiceshy on 12.21.16 at 12:04 pm

Assessed Nightmare: “Its going to be a slow grind this Spring as homeowners will point to their assessed and will not take anything off their prices while buyers will say WTF, that house was 40% less 2 years ago. Messy times a coming.”

You’re either too cute or naive. Homeowners that don’t have to sell, won’t. Those that do and there are always those that do, will have to follow the trend.

Garth posted this for you. Check it out and watch for the trend to speed up in the spring.

http://www.myrealtycheck.ca/

#84 Ace Goodheart on 12.21.16 at 12:10 pm

RE: #68 IHCTD9 :

“…Fortunately those of us who understand real estate speculation…

______

Who’s that?

You?”

Yes that would be me. Among others. From what I can see, there are not many of us.

#85 Deaner on 12.21.16 at 12:35 pm

Yep, that ol’ Toronto housing bubble is gonna pop ANY DAY NOW. I said ANY…DAY…NOW……

Doubtful. The trajectory will be more as I have described. — Garth

#86 For those about to flop... on 12.21.16 at 1:50 pm

Something for the daytime crew…

M42BC

https://howmuch.net

#87 InvestorsFriend on 12.21.16 at 2:00 pm

The TSX is NOT a great Index

Some people above pointed that out…

It’s over-represented by financials and commodities.

But Renters Revenge says:

“I would add that there are many successful companies in Canada, but they’re mostly privately owned. The TSX, on the other hand, is mainly companies that either no one wants to take private, or ones that can’t be taken private, like the banks and railways.”

*************************************
There is no requirement to invest in the TSX index given many sector ETFs and also individual stocks to choose from.

Yes, those who over-weighted the banks have done extremely well by doing so over decades. CN investors have done fantastically over the long term as have CP investors.

Some fantastic Canadian companies on the market include:

Stantec, Canadian Tire, Dollarama, Tim Hortons (now part of Restaurant brands), LuLu Lemon, and Constellation Software, and Canadian Utilities Ltd.

These are just the ones I have followed or am aware of. There are others. (These may or may not be good investments at the moment)

Moaning that the best companies are private (how do you know their financials?) is not at all helpful. Many investors have done extremely well on the Canadian equity portion of their portfolios. But yes many have not.

#88 Sean on 12.21.16 at 2:00 pm

Kind of a joke today Garth… Anything good we are seeing are due to the successful policies of Obama over the last 8 years. It’s a joke to think things will be better over the next 4 under Trump unless you are one of the ultra elite. Things are on their last legs of the good Obama did and the false belief that right wing policies actually benefit the people. Now is the real time to panic, not over the last few years as was shown.

#89 InvestorsFriend on 12.21.16 at 2:03 pm

I forgot Alimentation Couche-Tard on that list. Fantastic company.

Even Boston Pizza Royalties Income Fund has done very well (and fantastically well if you bought when others were fearful and drove its price down).

#90 Freedom First on 12.21.16 at 2:16 pm

Yes. No debt is good debt.

Mortgage debt has destroyed more people financially than everything else combined. Too many variables. High risk.

People borrowing to start a business/grow a business. Majority of businesses fail. High risk.

Student loan debt. How to crush yourself financially before you even get started in life. High risk.

Consumer debt. A want it now society. Ego debt. Buying to try to build stature, impress others, make themselves feel good. And with high interest loc’s, credit cards. payment juggling. High risk.

People lack discipline, awareness, focus, knowledge, and have failed to mature so must be forced to grow up by other means. Most often, Pain.

#1
Freedom First
Master of Freedomonics

#91 TurnerNation on 12.21.16 at 2:17 pm

Talked to an Uber driver in Toronto. He’s been here four years from India. Said he’s worse off here. Also calculated it’s almost same diff his wife staying home with the kids, child tax credit, than working.

Trickle down.

#92 GTA housing crash staring to get hot! on 12.21.16 at 2:33 pm

The housing crash is well underway as hired arsonists burn homes
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/north-york-arsonists-1.3907247

#93 Smoking Man on 12.21.16 at 2:42 pm

T2 has absolutely no clue. Too stupid to realize his ideology is now in the rear view window.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/trudeau-says-trump-very-supportive-of-keystone-xl-pipeline/article33399375/

Sure investors coming to Canada with bags of money to be hit with higher payroll taxes, carbon tax, most expensive electricity in the world. 18 weeks paid maternity leave. Yes, they will be running to Canada.

My favorite quotes from the story. He is truly in other space.

“We know that this is the way the world is going, and if the United States wants to take a step back from it, quite frankly, I think we should look at that as an extraordinary opportunity for Canada and for Canadians, an opportunity to draw in investors who are focused on where the profits and the opportunities are going to be 10 years from now, 20 years from now,”

and

“Let’s see what the president actually does once he becomes president and what he says, and let’s not overreact ahead of time. But the challenge of climate change isn’t a debate, or linked to a political ideology. It’s a fact. It’s a fact that we are facing around the world. It’s a reality that we have to adjust to,”

#94 Polls R Phake on 12.21.16 at 3:03 pm

43% of homes in greater Vancouver are now worth over a million dollars. So much for the chinese dudes tax.

Zero evidence this is related to offshore money or unrelated to local delusion. — Garth

#95 Polls R Phake on 12.21.16 at 3:19 pm

#94 Polls R Phake on 12.21.16 at 3:03 pm
43% of homes in greater Vancouver are now worth over a million dollars. So much for the chinese dudes tax.

Zero evidence this is related to offshore money or unrelated to local delusion. — Garth

____________________________________________

To quote President Trump – WRONG

There is plenty of evidence. Its just not the evidence people in Govt or people wearing suits to work everyday wish to hear or acknowledge.

Ask any blue collar worker whose profession is houses. 100% of them will tell you different. But keep believing what the suits tell you.

#96 RIL on 12.21.16 at 3:22 pm

I believe the Solstice occurs at 3:4 a.m. tonight in Cowtown where I now sit with a plate of shortbread.

So a wish to one and all here and especially to Garth, Dorothy, Doug, Ryan and Bandit for a salutary and safe Solstice.

And when the calendar page turns may all of you find yourselves brimming with optimism, including Apocalypse 201?

#97 IHCTD9 on 12.21.16 at 3:22 pm

#84 Ace Goodheart on 12.21.16 at 12:10 pm
RE: #68 IHCTD9 :

“…Fortunately those of us who understand real estate speculation…

______

Who’s that?

You?”

Yes that would be me. Among others. From what I can see, there are not many of us.
______________________________

So you’re the guy who will be making a ton of cash flipping houses in the future?

#98 IHCTD9 on 12.21.16 at 3:34 pm

#93 Smoking Man on 12.21.16 at 2:42 pm

My favorite quotes from the story. He is truly in other space.

“We know that this is the way the world is going, and if the United States wants to take a step back from it, quite frankly, I think we should look at that as an extraordinary opportunity for Canada and for Canadians, an opportunity to draw in investors who are focused on where the profits and the opportunities are going to be 10 years from now, 20 years from now,”
________________________________

Wow, that’s a doozie. So the US doubles down on running lean and hard, and T2 see’s our WCS bunker oil at nosebleed prices as a draw for investors?

Nobody is going to make a profit buying substandard product at premium prices. Hasn’t this guy ever run a business before?

Oh, right….

#99 jess on 12.21.16 at 3:35 pm

http://www.poynter.org/2016/366-links-to-understand-fact-checking-in-2016/440618/

what is the difference between a bullshitter and a liar?
https://www.ft.com/content/2e43b3e8-01c7-11e6-ac98-3c15a1aa2e62

#100 jess on 12.21.16 at 3:47 pm

The Italian parliament has approved a government plan for a possible €20bn (£16.8bn) bailout of the country’s banks. The Italian Treasury will probably have to rescue Italy’s third largest lender, Monte dei Paschi, by the end of next week. The rescue fund will be used to prop up other banks as well.9 hours ago

#101 ALFRED E. NEUMAN on 12.21.16 at 4:10 pm

#75 Canadian educational system needs .. on 12.21.16 at 10:54 am
Change . Desperately .
Personal finance must be mandatory in high school . An introductory course in grade 10 and a more advanced course in grade 11
Basic basic education is needed such as budgeting , understanding a lease , term insurance vs whole/universal, mortgages , investing

TOTALLY AGREE WITH YOUR POINT ABOUT EDUCATING OUR YOUNG ON MONEY MATTERS .. A ‘LIFE BUILDER’ AND ‘LIFE SAVER’ TOPIC. AMAZING THAT ITS NOT.

BUT WHO’S TO TEACH IT ?

‘CAUSE MANY TEACHERS I KNOW ARE FISCALLY CHALLENGED BECAUSE THEY WEREN’T TAUGHT EITHER.

PERHAPS GARTH AND HIS TEAM COULD DEVELOP SOMETHING .. HAVE ANY TIME FOR THAT GARTH ?

#102 falseprophet on 12.21.16 at 4:11 pm

How do we know Chinese Dude Participation Numbers are real?

Because the CMHC asked the brokerages politely for their statistics!

#103 Ace Goodheart on 12.21.16 at 4:20 pm

RE: #97 IHCTD9:

“So you’re the guy who will be making a ton of cash flipping houses in the future?”

No.

Real estate speculation is long term. The average bet takes five to ten years to mature.

Flipping houses is not real estate speculation.

#104 75 year high on 12.21.16 at 4:20 pm

The US economy has shifted into third gear. Unemployment’s at a nine-year low. Fifteen million jobs created in six years. Wages are rising.

Yet number of Millennials living at home with Mom reaches 75-year high.

Something doesn’t add up the way as it used to…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-21/number-millennials-living-home-mom-reaches-75-year-high

#105 GTA waiting on 12.21.16 at 4:25 pm

Is this madness ever going to stop? Getting frustrating

#106 RLP calling for correction?? on 12.21.16 at 4:29 pm

Wow…Super Phil Soper doing a 180…shocking….wonder what his views on GTA are given this comment….which is basically the mirror image in GTA

“Home prices had gotten so out of whack with the growth in underlying wages and salaries that there had to be a correction,” said Phil Soper, chief executive officer of Royal LePage, a unit of Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc. “And it’ll happen in 2017.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-21/vancouver-home-prices-face-double-digit-drop-in-2017-lepage

#107 InvestorsFriend on 12.21.16 at 4:51 pm

Where Should Oil Be Produced

In an ideal world (say the world was one huge democratic country) oil should be produced first from where the net cost (taking in to account costs to transport and refine it) are lowest.

So maybe middle east flat out until drained.

In the real world oil is produced in many locations and with costs ranging from low to quite high. But there is supposedly a common world price for the commodity (with differences by grade)

How does that work?

I suppose mostly by different countries offering different royalty levels to try to make high cost areas competitive with low cost areas.

Also by low cost areas forming a cartel and trying to maximise profit while not encouraging too much non-OPEC production.

It’s interesting to think about whether high cost oil sands should be produced while lower cost options exist and whether such production makes sense.

#108 More MSM nonsense on 12.21.16 at 5:20 pm

Seriously who cares about this bullshit anymore…

Another underlisted home bought over asking? Old news…

https://www.thestar.com/business/2016/12/21/gta-house-goes-for-400000-over-asking-it-was-like-a-rock-concert.html

#109 jess on 12.21.16 at 5:52 pm

ATTORNEY GENERAL BILL SCHUETTE: We are announcing charges against four individuals: two former state-appointed — two former state-appointed emergency managers and two former employees of the city of Flint. … These are governor-appointed emergency managers that we’re charging today with 20-year felonies, and it’s serious. ..

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/38825-flint-as-two-unelected-emergency-managers-are-charged-over-water-poisoning-will-gov-snyder-be-next

#110 espressobob on 12.21.16 at 5:54 pm

Global investing is the easy part.

The focus with many Canadian investors is what the oil sands, precious & base metal, or whatever will do.

There is a bigger picture.

https://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/products/239697/ishares-msci-world-index-etf

#111 HAIRY TRIGGER on 12.21.16 at 5:58 pm

Hair Trigger

“It’s a twitchy market — people live on more of a hair trigger,” he said. “When there’s a change in external circumstances — like interest rates or economic confidence or government regulation — you feel it much more acutely if your mortgage eats up twice your disposable income compared to someone elsewhere.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-21/vancouver-home-prices-face-double-digit-drop-in-2017-lepage

#112 Context on 12.21.16 at 5:59 pm

Why is it that the MSM in Canada are continually telling lies and covering up the truth? Where is the outrage?

#113 jess on 12.22.16 at 3:05 pm

math realities

“More than half of the $31 billion in mortgages underlying the Barclays securities ended in default, according to the Justice Department. This caused investors to lose “many billions of dollars, with hundreds of millions more in losses projected during the remaining life of the deals.

December 22, 2016, 2:33 PM EST

U.S. sues Barclays over residential mortgage backed securities in lawsuit filed in federal court in N.Y., Bloomberg News reports.

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just when i thought superlatives were ending
the department of bribery….too funny

Odebrecht And Braskem Plead Guilty And Agree To Pay At Least $3.5 Billion In Global Criminal Penalties To Resolve Largest Foreign Bribery Case In History

“These resolutions are the result of an extraordinary multinational effort to identify, investigate and prosecute a highly complex and long-lasting corruption scheme that resulted in the payment by the defendant companies of close to a billion dollars in bribes to officials at all levels of government in many countries,” said U.S. Attorney Capers. “In an attempt to conceal their crimes, the defendants used the global financial system – including the banking system in the United States – to disguise the source and disbursement of the bribe payments by passing funds through a series of shell companies. The message sent by this prosecution is that the United States, working with its law enforcement partners abroad, will not hesitate to hold responsible those corporations and individuals who seek to enrich themselves through the corruption of the legitimate functions of government, no matter how sophisticated the scheme.”

“Odebrecht and Braskem used a hidden but fully functioning Odebrecht business unit—a ‘Department of Bribery,’ so to speak—

https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/odebrecht-and-braskem-plead-guilty-and-agree-pay-least-35-billion-global-criminal