Wake up

deer

Well, there ya go. The latest indication the world as you’ve known it is about to change.

First the feds diddled the real estate rules. Then the banks started jacking up mortgage rates. Now the Bank of Canada has failed to lower its rate. In fact it’s talking about looming growth (which means higher rates). The Fed is 100% certain (the market says) to restart normalizing the cost of money on Wednesday afternoon. Next year will bring at least two more hikes. Meanwhile the odds of our bank prime rising in 2017 are between 40% and 50%.  They were 6% just days ago. And stock markets have gone ballistic, with the Dow and the S&P surging to new all-time highs.

So much for the tedious forecasts bleating from the steerage section about our rates falling, the Fed balking or the US sinking into recession. In case your money’s been quivering in a dead-end interest-bearing account with The Fruit People, or sitting in cash in your alpha-seeking advisor’s money market account, “because stocks are too expensive”, this chart’s for you…

stox

This year brought three major market entry points. The China-commodity crapfest of last February, the Brexit bomb in June, and the pre-Trump willies in late October. But instead of trying to time the market, it would have made sense to have a good, balanced portfolio in place all year – cuz you never know what’s coming around the corner (and neither do stock-picking cowboys).

The Dow is just 2% away from cracking the 20,000 mark, even as the American central bank is mere days from increasing its key rate – a move that will set the stage, ultimately, for money costs around the world. This is happening as we pass from the threat of deflation and decline to the expectation of inflation and growth. Free trade – which made the world more efficient and cheaper by flowing money and jobs from west to east – is turning into protectionism, thanks to the wave of populist politics washing across Europe and America. Costs, inflation, growth and profits are all expected to plump. Markets are eating it up.

So ‘Making America Great Again’ will end up yielding more domestic jobs, while increasing the cost of workers’ entire lives – their houses, groceries, cars and loans. But that’s what the deplorable class voted for. It’s what they shall get.

Whither us?

First, it’s a great time to be an investor, not a saver. So make sure you are. Second, higher mortgage and loan rates are guaranteed over the next few years, so get used to that idea. As money costs rise, real estate will flatline or decline. Sadly most major markets are already in varying degrees of distress as the new mortgage rules take hold, so the impact could be substantial in many places.

Third, things are looking up in the land of rampant beavers. Our job creation is stronger. The economy grew at a boffo rate in the last quarter. Oil has almost doubled since the winter and may be headed for over sixty bucks. The Toronto stock market has added 17.12% in the past eleven months. And all this means there’s not a ghost of a chance interest rates here are going down. But houses are.

Back near the turn of the century, seventeen years ago, I wrote a book predicting the stock market (Dow) would double in numeric value by 2015, from 10,000 to 20,000. I was wrong – missed it by a year. I based my optimism on technological advance, demographics and the inevitable migration of money from real assets to financial ones. Of course, it was a lucky stab since nobody can predict what happens on Tuesday, let alone a decade and a half away. And if the 2008-9 market crumble had never happened, today people in Toronto would be living in $450,000 houses with a fraction of their current debt load.

The past eight years were not normal. Normal’s coming. To so many people, it will be rad.

166 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 12.07.16 at 6:05 pm

Simple explanation of how the Orange Octopuses tax reform will effect certain American taxpayers…

https://howmuch.net

M42BC

#2 powder_hound86 on 12.07.16 at 6:07 pm

Little early to call victory over the doomers. 2 rate hikes in a decade is not exactly normalizing yet.

Call me when rates are at 6% without causing debt deflation

Two rate hikes in a year. Two more next year. — Garth

#3 Montelli on 12.07.16 at 6:15 pm

Hi Garth, do you think its a bad idea to stuff RESPs with ZSP given CAD denomination and 15yr horizon. Screamer is 3 now and I plan to reduce 100% equities allocation at 10 yr mark and switch to balanced portfolio then and full FI at 15yr mark.

Thanks – was too chicken to invest in TSX and btw I have no USD.

Cheers
M

#4 Interstellar Star Stuff on 12.07.16 at 6:23 pm

My portfolio thanks you lord emperor trump…

On top of making some very nice coin … we also get the greatest reality show ever as a bonus.

Fruitbowl Carson in charge of something or other. world wrestling ceo in charge of small business and the trumpster surrounded in more generals than putin..

fantastic stuff!! The coming of Trump is here.

#5 LH on 12.07.16 at 6:28 pm

The melt up continues…
The stocks (more than 50 single names) I bought this year are up 30%+
But then again, so are Toronto detached houses

Real estate and stocks… I love both

#6 RentYVR on 12.07.16 at 6:35 pm

“And all this means there’s not a ghost of a chance interest rates here are going down.” Oh man, if I had a dollar for every time someone has said that to me over the past 8 years I’d actually be able to afford a moldy crack shack here in lala land…

#7 Mark on 12.07.16 at 6:41 pm

What a fabulous YTD it has been, headlined by, as predicted, the precious metals sector. Even as I look around, there are still some incredible bargains, in and outside of the precious metals sector, in long-term businesses that generate enormous amounts of cash sustainably.

Unfortunately most Canadians will not be participating in the upside. Either too afraid to invest in anything other than GICs and savings accounts. Or too poor to invest, on account of increasing housing financing costs and deflating incomes with correlation to the drying up RE market.

Opportunities usually come about in asset classes when the public’s enthusiasm is at its lowest. The emerging markets, which have been left for dead in the past year or two on the threat of a higher US dollar, as well as even European equities, look like excellent opportunities going forward. Balanced portfolio owners are probably buying into the corresponding ETFs as part of their annual rebalancing process which should be underway soon (hopefully combined with a review of this years’ tax situation!). For those who are working with an advisor, this is the time to give them a call and ensure that planning occurs for any year-end optimizations that may be applicable to one’s specific situation.

#8 Doug t on 12.07.16 at 6:46 pm

In “rad” you mean bad

Poverty grows as we speak – how rad.
The rich get richer – how rad.
Growth is stagnant – I’m glad.
Black oil still runs the world – that’s sad

RATM

#9 Lulu on 12.07.16 at 7:03 pm

Have a meeting with the Green Bank today taking care of business, the advisor told me the bank really tighten up lending rules as the applicant need to prove a lots of document to get the mortgage approve and branch manager is not the one can approve, in fact, advisor collect all the needed docu and branch manager will verify them and send it to higher level for approval.

They are losing money on mortgages and staff scratching their head try to meet quota. Not good at all for them. Things sure been changed. And they mentioned rates are gonna go up from now on, no more down and lax lending anymore. Game is over!!!

He said next spring will see a lot more activity happen in the real estate sector. Oh My!!

#10 WaitingOnTheWorldToChange on 12.07.16 at 7:05 pm

Couldn’t agree more with your assessment on inflation. However, would be curious to know why so optimistic about growth? The US has been averaging 2% for the past two years? With a strengthening dollar, the trade imbalance will be exacerbated and thereby creating some real headwinds? Coupled with Trump’s protectionist policies do we really expect that investment in infrastructure can enable sustainable growth that will support the debt servicing costs of a $20+ T debt in a rising interest rate environment? I think that stagflation looks more probable than inflation + growth?

#11 hope & ruin on 12.07.16 at 7:09 pm

But that’s what the deplorable class voted for. It’s what they shall get.

Ain’t democracy a b*tch sometimes.

#12 Prairieboy43 on 12.07.16 at 7:10 pm

Garth will Dow hit 40,000? A cowboys life is great. Make er’ buck.

#13 Context on 12.07.16 at 7:10 pm

I can see the Greater Fool train will be leaving soon and those who bought their condo Real Estate high in the sky forgot to reserve a seat. The tickets are all sold out while you were sitting on the fence, so enjoy your new ride to the bottom year after year.

#14 Oakville Sucks on 12.07.16 at 7:13 pm

“Free trade – which made the world more efficient and cheaper by flowing money and jobs from west to east”
*********************

Efficient for whom?….anything but efficient….cheaper production costs for corporations who’s cost savings were never passed on to consumers because of corporate greed(not cheaper). And at the same time, we gave them free trade on JOBS which Translated to lower wages and benifits because they had the right to free trade jobs if workers didn’t play by their rules.

You must not shop at Wal-Mart. — Garth

#15 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 12.07.16 at 7:14 pm

Hey realtors, if they force you to open up MLS all your lies will be exposed for the scum you truly have become. Regardless prices will come crashing back to the mean average. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#16 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 12.07.16 at 7:16 pm

Lulu #7

That’s exactly what my buddies in the banking sector have been saying. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#17 the other white meat (pork) on 12.07.16 at 7:17 pm

You omitted the biggest market entry point of the year, the last rate increase by the US Fed. That seems to get glossed over several times a week on this riveting blog. Still, it would appear that the Fed has stopped wringing its hands over the millions of unemployed and decided to move on(leave them behind). So it goes, I’m getting mine.

#18 espressobob on 12.07.16 at 7:21 pm

Juggling a batch of individual stocks are a pain in the ass. The emotions run wild while trying to decide which to trade, either because they’re stinkers or the winners are overpriced? What a load.

Index investors can tailor their portfolio across the board along with some safe stuff. Way easier than trying to beat mr. market. Why not match performance?

The mutual fund outfits use fear tactics to convince retailers not to try this on their own. Another load.

#19 paulo on 12.07.16 at 7:23 pm

Have a friend out in yvr, he just got a letter from the property tax folks,advising him that his property taxes are jumping a whopping 47% for 2017 ouch.
same issues coming soon to toronto and area i suspect
In ontario we have the new carbon tax grab to look forward to adding 4-5 cents per liter plus hst of course, plus extra costs for hydro,gas and groceries .
it seems that inflation and increasing interest rates are
very much in the cards moving forward .
as for our latest employment numbers, the creation of a bunch of part time Mc jobs, with a loss of 8k plus full time positions was not the best , but it is amazing how one can cook the books!

#20 fancy_pants on 12.07.16 at 7:25 pm

Congrats on the book Garth, but IMO with all due respect it didn’t grow for the reasons you state, it grew as the money supply grows. There is more $ in real assets than ever. If rates increased as you expected the last 7 years we wouldn’t be close. QE and near free $ deserves the credit.

#21 Renter's Revenge! on 12.07.16 at 7:26 pm

What’s the visual equivalent of “that’s music to my ears”?

“That’s art to my eyes”?

#22 Stewie on 12.07.16 at 7:31 pm

DELETED

#23 Freedom First on 12.07.16 at 7:33 pm

Wake up- Garth

Yes. Time will be your ally, or, it will be your enemy. And there is no escaping getting older if you aren’t dead.

The decisions you make all through your life will haunt/bless you. Fact.

Live by Financial Principles taught here by Garth, or, you can have whatever you want right now. All you have to do is pay for it. Fact. Choose wisely.

Also, never look a gift dear in the mouth. Stay alert, act wisely, and take it.

#24 Andrew Woburn on 12.07.16 at 7:34 pm

“Middle class (British) liberals were the only section of society to wholeheartedly support remaining in the EU according to a wide-ranging analysis by social research institute NatCen.

The study incorporated responses from 37,000 people and represents the most detailed insight yet into who the typical Brexit voter was.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/07/brexit-middle-class-liberals-social-group-emphatically-back/

As the UK MSM is overwhelmingly liberal, middle class, it isn’t hard to see how they misunderstood so many of their fellow citizens and will probably continue to do so.

#25 Londoner on 12.07.16 at 7:42 pm

“Now the Bank of Canada has failed to lower its rate. In fact it’s talking about looming growth (which means higher rates)”

The BoC also said that employment, business investment and non-energy related exports are still weak. It also sees growth moderating and undiminished uncertainty ahead. So when housing related economic growth, which represents the largest contributor to GDP, starts to falter while the other component continue to struggle then what option will the Bank have? The rebound in oil prices and housing activity are the only things keeping rates where they are. Let’s see what happens if they both contract.

#26 ANON on 12.07.16 at 7:45 pm

This is happening as we pass from the threat of deflation and decline to the expectation of inflation and growth.

BigD is dead, Gravity croaked, growth FTW! Loaves and fishes for everyone, eternally! :)

#27 I don't know! on 12.07.16 at 7:46 pm

“The past eight years were not normal. Normal’s coming. To so many people, it will be rad.” – Garth

———————————————————–

“Normal” in the sense of the old normal will NEVER come back. The only thing cropping up this financial house of cards is DEBT. Debt and more debt. At every level. Whether the global financial system can sustain ever growing debt is something we will find out in the years to come.

#28 Irent2017 on 12.07.16 at 7:49 pm

Sir – as fed raise the rates which must be a 100% certainty now, will the equity ETF first drop temporarily as money moves into bonds and then take off? Please share your thoughts.

#29 Londoner on 12.07.16 at 7:53 pm

“Back near the turn of the century, seventeen years ago, I wrote a book predicting the stock market (Dow) would double in numeric value by 2015, from 10,000 to 20,000. I was wrong – missed it by a year.”

I thought the call was for the Dow to be at 30k or 50k by 2015. Nevertheless, I agree – there’s no reason to not be invested.

#30 fancy_pants on 12.07.16 at 7:53 pm

#19
I agree, I suspect inflation will be fast and furious when it finally lets loose. This may force the Hand to be played – higher rates. Will be curious to see how they play this teeter totter.

Ontario is especially cooked and Winnie will hopefully disappear next election before she completely guts the province. The only legacy the liberal govt will leave behind is a province with double the debt and nothing to show forth but higher taxes, hydro costs, and an education system that ensures your child can be the gender that god messed up on. At least We can all sit around smoke pot and live off social assistance by we are all special. The fallout is someone else’s problem once we run out of public assets to sell off

#31 TurnerNation on 12.07.16 at 7:55 pm

Technician, steel thyself (from criticism).

#32 Pepito on 12.07.16 at 8:02 pm

Let’s be honest for a change, so called ” free trade” was nothing more than politicians giving a green light to their business buddies to source their llabour in third world countries with Charles Dickens Era labour conditions with investors pocketing the massive profits while decimating skilled labour and the manufacturing industry in the developed world.

And the crap at Walmart is supposed to make it all good? Do you think people a stupid?

Rhetorical question, right? — Garth

#33 Rexx Rock on 12.07.16 at 8:11 pm

The fed will hold of on raising rates until early 2018.Still to much turmoil in Europe.Italy and France may leave Euro so they will hold of for a year or two.Hey the already raised it once in the last 8 years.Britain and Japan won’t raise rates and Canada obviously can’t.

#34 meslippery on 12.07.16 at 8:13 pm

You must not shop at Wal-Mart. — Garth

Jobs, pay and benefits where better when you shopped
at Simpsons or Eatons.

And they failed. Enough said. — Garth

#35 Jungle on 12.07.16 at 8:14 pm

Great post. Stock markets/ balance portfolio posting solid gains this year.

Mark excellent post, I am thinking about adding some emerging markets this time around by investing in VT. You get international, US and emerging markets. Only a small amount in there, but perfect for allocation. Can’t believe people missing out on this. Like looking back in the 90’s what the s&p 500 did, I was only a child. However boomers missing out and never investing in their lives is enough for them to cry when they see the lost opportunity. I have always been a huge advocate of the stock market and always encourage friends and co-workers to invest in couch potato and not so much RE. Since having most of your money in the stock market gives you the best utility. Can’t say having all your money in RE is a good thing when it’s all illiquid and trapped.

#36 bdwy sktrn on 12.07.16 at 8:17 pm

#19 paulo on 12.07.16 at 7:23 pm
Have a friend out in yvr, he just got a letter from the property tax folks,advising him that his property taxes are jumping a whopping 47% for 2017 ouch.
——————–
try again

#37 Polls R Phake on 12.07.16 at 8:20 pm

More phake stock market highs with institutions only. Volume is anemic. 2 rate hikes in ten years. Yeah I am not believing anything unlike all the losers who thought for sure Hillary was going to win. She lost even with all the election rigging.

Over 385 million shares traded on the NYSE today. You’re funny. — Garth

#38 bigtowne on 12.07.16 at 8:28 pm

Clean is good especially in high traffic areas i.e. bath and kitchen. Wal-mart has the best price on my cleaning wipes. There are two brand names I buy (no names as both are best) depending on which is better deal. My word, but my package of brand name wipes has shrunk by a third to a tiny little tube of its original size. The package has shrunk but the same number of wipes meaning companies are eliminating some of the disposable waste; carbon footprint and greenhouse gasses all without any prompting from the government and no additional taxes to the consumer.

The new year will bring in far and wide new taxes from the federal and provincial governments under their “greening” of the economy. Companies will feel the impact as people look for ways to offset this digging into their monthly nut. Goodwill is the best for most household and clothing needs in a household plus Goodwill is a charity and there is no sales tax. Do good and prosper…the Almighty would find peace and prosperity in that philosophy.

#39 Silver on 12.07.16 at 8:37 pm

picked up a folded piece of property from the courts in nanimo.
the few foreclosure’s that completed… went uncontested.
and at bare land value.
expected at least one counterbid…
really stunned got at offered value.
was done before got my breath…
lots of investment properties…uincompleted projects…
… abandoned. no attempt at recourse…

great market… depending on your view.
the majority had no bids at all… and were carried over

but i wasn’t there to invest… just a great piece of property at a lowball killer price.

did very well 4 years ago…
keep it up snowflakes.

Silver

#40 Context on 12.07.16 at 8:43 pm

There are lots of jobs in Mexico for those out of work and each skill has a different minimum wage. Slave labour got a raise this year for those that want to work the farm fields or other unskilled work. The official minimum daily rate is $73.04 pesos or $4.76 CAD per day. Working in Canada for an official minimum hourly rate is not so bad, so find a job and get working, as Ontario needs more tax payers.

#41 Smoking Man on 12.07.16 at 8:43 pm

MSM is in huge trouble in USA.
Prison planet, Bribart have bigger audiences.
NYT WSJ doomed.

I can see CNN chapter 11 by July..

Come on Bribart TV

#42 U of T graduate on 12.07.16 at 8:45 pm

Exchange those worthless US Dollars$$$$$ and use them into Canadian petro-dollars.

My magic crystal ball tells me that the Canadian dollar will be at 80 cents before the end of year.

Sell your greenbacks and exchange them into our currency. Canada will become an economic powerhouse in 2017.

#43 Smoking Man on 12.07.16 at 8:49 pm

What the hell is T2 and Butts going to do now that Trump put a climate denier in charge of the Epa.

Scientists afraid to speak up against man made climate change are abandoning ship in huge numbers. You have an investment in renables get the hell out while you have a chance.

There’s money to be made on wind of change..
Bet accordingly.

I figure T2 and Butts idiologs with a huge fan base will double down sending the Canadian economy into a depression..

This isn’t funny anymore.

God help us all.

#44 Smoking Man on 12.07.16 at 8:57 pm

#42 U of T graduate on 12.07.16 at 8:45 pm
Exchange those worthless US Dollars$$$$$ and use them into Canadian petro-dollars.

My magic crystal ball tells me that the Canadian dollar will be at 80 cents before the end of year.

Sell your greenbacks and exchange them into our currency. Canada will become an economic powerhouse in 2017.
……

Now that’s funny. The Schooled calling the economy.

You’ve never door knocked have you.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#45 Proud Condo Owner in TO on 12.07.16 at 9:00 pm

Wake up___ Toronto is the greatest city in the world. House prices are NEVER NEVER EVER EVER going to go down to the 400 levels. Toronto is a growing city with a vibrant multi-cultural culture.

Millions of Canadians & non-Canadians want to live in Toronto. There is more demand than supply. Toronto is one of the best cities in the world to live in.

There are plans to construct several more 85 story to 93 story skyscrapers in Toronto. Our best city in Canada is booming!!!!!!!!

Toronto is the best!

#46 Polls R Phake on 12.07.16 at 9:00 pm

#37 Polls R Phake on 12.07.16 at 8:20 pm
More phake stock market highs with institutions only. Volume is anemic. 2 rate hikes in ten years. Yeah I am not believing anything unlike all the losers who thought for sure Hillary was going to win. She lost even with all the election rigging.

Over 385 million shares traded on the NYSE today. You’re funny. — Garth

___________________________________________

Check who did all the high frequency trading. A handful of banker dudes. And I am not trying to be funny.

I know. You can’t help it. — Garth

#47 Smoking Man on 12.07.16 at 9:06 pm

Ezra Lavant emails me looking for loot for rebal media. I’m thinking of starting a similar version of Bribart in Canada. You in Garth. Dogs. No one wants me.

My response :

Ezra this is what I can offer. Words. I’ve been un-hinging the mental left for years as poster in the comments section of greater fool. Have a huge fan base. I go my the name of Smoking Man.

I’m a legend on there. Predicted Trump, Brexit, and every move by central banks for the last 8 years. It’s all in the Archives of his blog., well I screwed up today. No one is perfect.

Give me a once a week column and watch your traffic soar.

Ask Garth Turner. You probably know him. We finaly met. Nice guy.

Oh, may rate, 0 dollars per hour. I’ll do it just for the fun of it.

You can’t bend what you can’t offend. That’s pretty generous offer considering I’m special.

I’m Dyslexic so I’ll need an editor she better be hot.

Just published a fiction novel. You might recognize a definite Gonzo style.

@smokingman on Twitter.

Hope to hear from you.
No camera. No video.
Just my words.

Ps. Are you a mentaly retarded. Why have you blocked me on Twitter. F-en communist.

#48 Harold Svenson on 12.07.16 at 9:07 pm

Re Dec 6, #29 crowdedelevatorfartz – 6’6″ is not huge. I’m 6’6″. I’m normal. You are short. It’s all a matter of perspective.

#49 I've crossed the Rubiconjob on 12.07.16 at 9:08 pm

I’m still in fake news
I’ve come to the conclusion that Pearl Harbor
was not a false flag, LIHOP, prior knowledge etc
it was a psyop
bombs on empty ships
Hollywood movies of explosions
no one died
the official narrative is 100% bs
a dozen Hollywood feature films to enshrine the jive
people were told family members died there but they died elsewhere

#50 Suede on 12.07.16 at 9:11 pm

Let’s not all get hung up on BoC rate hake pandemonium.

Could it happen? Sure.

But don’t expect 25 bps increases every mtg.

A sprinkle there, a dab there.

This is Canada, very cautious and apologetic, you see.

#51 Suede on 12.07.16 at 9:16 pm

Polls r phake

You’re funny.

Dow will keep making more highs as you keep denying. Wall of worry.

My hockey buddies are starting to ask questions about stocks. We’ve entered a bull market people.

#52 @Paola on 12.07.16 at 9:17 pm

#19 paulo on 12.07.16 at 7:23 pm
Have a friend out in yvr, he just got a letter from the property tax folks,advising him that his property taxes are jumping a whopping 47% for 2017 ouch.

garth, where do you find these geniuses?

#53 InvestorsFriend on 12.07.16 at 9:17 pm

Grumbly Pants

#20 fancy_pants on 12.07.16 at 7:25 pm said:

Congrats on the book Garth, but IMO with all due respect it didn’t grow for the reasons you state, it grew as the money supply grows.

********************************************
The DOW doubled AND inflation was WAY lower than would have been predicted in around year 2000.

DOW goes up inexorably as the DOW companies make money and retain about half of that and reinvest for growth. It really can’t help but go up long term.

Yes, lower interest rates also boosted the DOW, of course. They justify higher P/E ratios.

Just read what Warren Buffett writes to better understand this.

#54 @Paola on 12.07.16 at 9:18 pm

And the gov’s won memo said no rate hikes till 2029. But then this blog would shut down.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-07/canada-keeps-key-rate-at-0-5-as-investment-exports-disappoint

Nothing of the kind was said by the Bank of Canada. — Garth

#55 Sidera on 12.07.16 at 9:19 pm

The next interest rate move by the BOC will be down, not up.

expect the cut to come in the next couple of interest rate decisions in the spring to fall.

High probability that we may see 0% interest rates within the next couple of years.

Look how well Japan has faired!!!! Stocks through the roof !!!

Stop spreading misinformation to the muppets Garth

#56 InvestorsFriend on 12.07.16 at 9:23 pm

Eye Candy

#21 Renter’s Revenge! on 12.07.16 at 7:26 pm said:

What’s the visual equivalent of “that’s music to my ears”?

“That’s art to my eyes”?

********************
That’s candy to my eyes

Candy being almost universally enjoyed, art, not so much.

#57 TCContrarian on 12.07.16 at 9:25 pm

“So much for the tedious forecasts bleating from the steerage section about our rates falling, the Fed balking or the US sinking into recession. In case your money’s been quivering in a dead-end interest-bearing account with The Fruit People, or sitting in cash in your alpha-seeking advisor’s money market account, “because stocks are too expensive”, this chart’s for you…” – GT
—————————————————————-

Compare that chart to 2007-8 prior to the crash. Remember the “Goldilocks Economy?” (or something to that effect?)

Added to my short positions today: US REIT ETF/Consumer Staples ETF/TESLA/Utilities ETF

Oh… and on the buy side? Bought me CALL options on GLD (Jan.20/17 expiry, strike $120).

Not advising anyone though.

TCC

#58 God Emperor of Mankind and Holy Terra Trump on 12.07.16 at 9:26 pm

Love the Emperor Trump

for He is the salvation of mankind

Obey His words

for He will lead you into the light of the future

Heed His wisdom

for He will protect you from evil

Whisper His prayers with devotion,

for they will save your soul

Honour His servants,

for they speak in His voice

Tremble before His majesty,

for we all walk in His immortal shadow

#59 Smoking Man on 12.07.16 at 9:28 pm

Seriously. Canada needs a briebart..

Whos in dogs. I’m proposing a south side johnny’s meet and greet. Looking for writers. I’ll fund the whole thing.

Can’t do it myself.

Is Canada not worth saving from the loons running the isilam

Time is now.

#60 dogman01 on 12.07.16 at 9:30 pm

Smoking Man – You warned us years ago about Gerald Butts.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/ontario-disaster-architects-1.3884108

Not sure if most of us are rich enough to afford these guys ideas.

#61 hope & ruin on 12.07.16 at 9:40 pm

Presidential predictions:

1. Trump gets two-terms.
2. We get the first ever presidential sex tape leak.
3. Trump makes millions by firing cabinet members apprentice-style and posting it on youtube.
4. T-shirts that say “I (heart) DC” and a pic of the white house phtoshopped with Trump Tower billing. (I’m looking for one if you find them)
5. His inauguration is watched by FEWER people than the finale of The Apprentice.
6. International skirmishes that originate on twitter. Twitter share price doubles, the UN becomes a major stakeholder.

#62 Smoking Man on 12.07.16 at 9:42 pm

Code of conduct for writers on my proposed web news service for Canada

All writers must write while hammered, only way to bring out true honesty. We don’t hire sobar folks.

You can be anything you want, say anything you want that don’t get us sued. All opinions matter.

#63 meslippery on 12.07.16 at 9:46 pm

And they failed. Enough said. — Garth

So did Target …
A lot failed due to free trade.
Its just that things where better before globalization.

#64 TokingMan on 12.07.16 at 9:54 pm

The Smoking Man Shtick is so tired and boring and irritating jeeze…

#65 Smoking Man on 12.07.16 at 9:56 pm

Me And The Boys In Ireland .

https://youtu.be/omYII0sWiwo

Search Youtube. Orange Ufos.

We Get Around.

#66 S.Bby on 12.07.16 at 10:03 pm

Yup, Vancouver house values down down down and property taxes up up up. What a great time to be a homeowner in The Best Place On Earth. And now YVR property owners are being asked to pony up another 1/2 percent on their property taxes to help out the drug addicts.

http://www.news1130.com/2016/12/07/bc-ndp-asks-vancouver-raising-taxes-cover-provincial-responsibility/

#67 S.Bby on 12.07.16 at 10:07 pm

Two co-workers yakking in the lunch room today discussing Fraser Valley house prices: the one guy said the house in his hood was listed at $something then reduced, then reduced again by some huge amount (I don’t recall the number he said) then it went off the market. It sound like the memo is finally getting out to the unwashed masses.

#68 Smoking Man on 12.07.16 at 10:10 pm

60 dogman01 on 12.07.16 at 9:30 pm
Smoking Man – You warned us years ago about Gerald Butts.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/ontario-disaster-architects-1.3884108

Not sure if most of us are rich enough to afford these guys ideas..
……

Nictonites can read minds. That boy is demented. Well he was is his younger years. Not so much anymore. But what can he do.

He’s addicted to his FAN base…. his revenue stream. Just like Suzuki… They can’t go with logic or reason. Cost them too much money. There all in.

Educational system that makes them out to be God’s.

As an entrepreneur I sort of can’t blame them.. But the shit they are unleashing on Canadian familys is deplorable. Especially in Alberta.

I’m thinking butts might come around.. He’s not stupid. As for T2.

No comment yesterday I decided to be a nicer person.

#69 Mark on 12.07.16 at 10:10 pm

“Mark excellent post, I am thinking about adding some emerging markets this time around by investing in VT. “

I personally prefer to use VWO, VGK, VPL, VTI, and XIU/XIC/VXC instead of those all-in-one funds (and VEA can be thrown in the mix if you have a linear programming model set up in Excel to calculate rebalancing percentages!).

Why? A single large fund doesn’t really capture any “bonus” return from rebalancing. Rebalancing a balanced portfolio provides a higher long-term return than just the weighted sum of the returns of each individual component.

As far as using VT to invest in the emerging markets, VT is only 9.3% weighted to them (VWO is 100%!). A Canadian investing in that fund also loses the benefit of the Canadian dividend tax credit on the Canadian portion of the portfolio, and may even have to pay both CRA and IRS withholding on Canadian content with no opportunity for a refund.

Just a few things to think about if you’re into DIY. For a small account, its probably fine, but if you’re into the mid 5 or even low 6 figures, you probably would be better served with owning and rebalancing across a number of low-cost ETFs representing different geographies, asset classes, etc.

#70 TurnerNation on 12.07.16 at 10:11 pm

Smoking man all opposition eventually becomes infiltrated and controlled. Look at Huff post.
Sure have a meet and greet I’ll try, but soon people will be making you offers you cannot refuse.

#71 IHCTD9 on 12.07.16 at 10:12 pm

#43 Smoking Man on 12.07.16 at 8:49 pm

I figure T2 and Butts idiologs with a huge fan base will double down sending the Canadian economy into a depression..

This isn’t funny anymore.

God help us all.

——-

Yep, green energy policy and carbon taxes for all. We’re already hopelessly uncompetitive, so T2 and co with their heads full of igneous rock want to make things even worse, while filling our collective boots with debt just for good measure.

The whole lot of them need a front kick into Mt. Doom.

#72 Doug t on 12.07.16 at 10:17 pm

#59 smoke man

I’m in – lets get it going

RATM

#73 Smoking Man on 12.07.16 at 10:22 pm

Got this on the buds, thinking about my late nephew.
https://youtu.be/Q638RsBSGeA
Trying to communicate with him

The question I ask. Is dekard. From my fave al time movie. Blade Runner.

Is dekard a replact…..

Selfish of me I’m thinking.

Miss you Mark. Your folks. Worse than ever.

#74 Smoking Man on 12.07.16 at 10:37 pm

When you lose a kid.

It’s a knife In the eyeball twisted several times then down your gut.

And you think Why me… Hopefully you got good family with band aids, they won’t dry up the blood but you will appreciate the effort.

And hopefully you won’t kill yourself tomorrow.

To all those dogs in this sort of place. I’m a drunk but feel your pain through my relatives eyes.

Hang in…. Please.

#75 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.07.16 at 10:39 pm

Watched Dickens “A Christmas Carol”.
George C. Scott, great actor.
Amazing how it’s still relevant.
Screw the rich.

#76 IHCTD9 on 12.07.16 at 10:43 pm

#63 meslippery on 12.07.16 at 9:46 pm

Its just that things where better before globalization.

—-

That’s up for debate I think. A 20 hp Craftsman mower cost $4500.00 USD in 1981. What’s that, like 12 grand today? I have a 20 hp Simplicity Broadmoor that was like 3800 a few years ago.

It’s either good paying jobs for many (but not all) folks, along with hellishly expensive products, or crap jobs (but some good ones still) along with dirt cheap products.

Where you exist inside the timeline and transitioning of these events is what makes it good or bad. If you are a 10 year career veteran that got the good job before globalization came on strong, you win with good pay for a while yet, with ever less expensive consumer goods.

If you are a young buck just starting out at the height of globalism just before protectionist policies come on strong, you lose with crap pay for a while yet with ever more expensive consumer goods.

IMHO, this is why Gen X’ers are usually doing pretty good. They got going just in the nick of time – cheap education, still good paying jobs, gainfully employed white collar wives, affordable housing still, dirt cheap interest rates right after they bought the cheap house, plus got some seniority and off and running with investments before the effects of globalism and immigration really took hold in the west and started killing wages and jobs. By the time the 20+ year Gen X veterans get laid off from their career jobs never to earn that much again, it won’t really matter – most of them should be set up.

The millennials have the crummy opposite end of all of the above because of a ~15 year delay in getting into the workforce.

One thing is for sure though, never in the history of mankind have so many folks owned so many nice things as they do right now. New cars, big TV’s, toys galore. Unheard of when I was a kid, if a classmate had a 50cc dirt bike in grade school, his dad really splurged big time on something like that.

#77 Smoking Man on 12.07.16 at 10:49 pm

If I had a job, I would be a horrible site. Shit I’ve gone through with deathd. I would be like a zombie walking around sobar with a blank expression. Void of human interaction.

Good thing I live in my basement writing a sequel to book that no one bought.

It don’t get any better than this.

Why no one can see it. They’ve never knocked on doors or given to the homeless.

It’s all about a tax receipt.. And playing comormity.

I hate people.

#78 RIL on 12.07.16 at 11:00 pm

Odd. Are Julie or Linda around? One of them is a sage [email protected] I convinced my wife to remove $ from her RRSP tax free this month and into her TFSA and again the next month to confound the Exchequer. However, her [email protected] has her laundering the stash from the RRSP to an RRIF and then into the TFSA. Seems it will save 2 X $50 fee = $100.

Anyone heard of the like?

Oh well, we’ll try it. We have the representation from the bank and if there are tax consequences, there will be litigation consequences sounding in negligent misrepresentation replete with exemplary, punitive and aggravated damages, injunctive relief and solicitor client costs. And public humiliation of the CEO!

And all of this financial fancy footwork was learned here amidst the baying hounds of Bay Street.

#79 Smoking Man on 12.07.16 at 11:04 pm

#69 TurnerNation on 12.07.16 at 10:11 pm
Smoking man all opposition eventually becomes infiltrated and controlled. Look at Huff post.
Sure have a meet and greet I’ll try, but soon people will be making you offers you cannot refuse.

…..
Not me. I’m never sobar enough to be hosed.

#80 For those about to flop... on 12.07.16 at 11:09 pm

I don’t celebrate Christmas ,but I feel that it’s only right that I buy Ross Kay a set of shin pads for Christmas,so the poor guy can’t feel Mark dry humping his leg so hard…

M42BC

#81 Smoking Man on 12.07.16 at 11:17 pm

The tragedy of humanity.

The down, the hopeless reach out for love and it’s not there.

Better be a vision of success where rabid dogs try and take your imaginary milk bone you dangle in there face.

Hoping for a book sale.

#82 Polls R Phake on 12.07.16 at 11:23 pm

#51 Suede on 12.07.16 at 9:16 pm
Polls r phake

You’re funny.

Dow will keep making more highs as you keep denying. Wall of worry.

My hockey buddies are starting to ask questions about stocks. We’ve entered a bull market people.

____________________________________________

I’m not denying the highs. I’m acknowledging the fact that it is a handful of banker dudes not your average joe. Of course higher highs can happen.

I have also laughed at all these people that have been saying for 20 years that the USD is going to crash. Crash against what? Room goes silent.

#83 Smoking Man on 12.07.16 at 11:30 pm

Taking down a Marlboro on one drag to find truth..
If you don’t make it on the first attempt.

This tune works..
https://youtu.be/p4zluA60hjs

#84 Smoking Man on 12.07.16 at 11:32 pm

The mission drifts

https://youtu.be/9oX2xFo7JA4

#85 RIL on 12.07.16 at 11:34 pm

I forgot the most significant consequence in the event my wife’s bankster’s advice is wrong and leads to a horrid judicial result for her bank.

A scathing article by the intrepid journalist Christie Blatchford on the justice beat with the NP.

#86 Smoking Man on 12.07.16 at 11:54 pm

The moment you figure it out. Bliss

https://youtu.be/G5NtzB-voZo

#87 meslippery on 12.08.16 at 12:04 am

#75 IHCTD9 on 12.07.16 at 10:43 pm

Thing is in 1997 without finishing high school I grossed
$70k working hard as a truck driver. Thats 1997 $$$
Thats 20 years ago… How many truck drivers make
that today? not even adjusted for inflation.
Same time there abouts as free trade started.
Sure it cost more to go to the mall then, but you had a job with benifits and could pay the rent and see a better future. You did not have to live in your parents basement. Now you could go to walmart but thats it. Cheap goods to fix up your parents basement.

#88 Smoking Man on 12.08.16 at 12:08 am

https://youtu.be/HNzmrEgz_GI

Don’t belive them

#89 Smoking Man on 12.08.16 at 12:22 am

https://youtu.be/ZX0CfFdk-jw

Ya

#90 Smoking Man on 12.08.16 at 12:29 am

To me

https://youtu.be/8UXircX3VdM
Good night

#91 meslippery on 12.08.16 at 1:00 am

#75 IHCTD9
That’s up for debate I think. A 20 hp Craftsman mower cost $4500.00 USD in 1981. What’s that, like 12 grand today? I have a 20 hp Simplicity Broadmoor that was like 3800 a few years ago.

Maybe but what did the yard and the house cost in
1981? I think you were still better off in 1981.

#92 dienekes on 12.08.16 at 1:05 am

http://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/alberta-electricians-angry-over-wage-deductions-1.3178412

not sure where the jobs are, and the ones in BC and Ontario pay shit. It is economic Armageddon out here on the prairies for construction.
Many companies are nearing insolvency. Lots of desperation. Housing is not dropping due to the government actions or interest rates. They are dropping due to no employment..

#93 dienekes on 12.08.16 at 1:13 am

Also, don’t be suckered by the big push to become a tradesman. I have been telling my guys that the Journeyman electrician I worked under drove cab in the early 80’s for 5 years, because there was no work, and he was an electrician. Don’t be fooled, the big “there is a shortage of skilled trades” is crap. Get a commerce degree, then if you want to be poor and wreck your body, then go into the trades. If you do go into trades, start a company, and save every dime. Then you can quit in 7 years when you have 800k saved up in company account and do something else.

#94 I 'dunno Garth on 12.08.16 at 2:02 am

I want to share your enthusiasm.

But we have only had 1 month of very good news about GDP and Jobs in Canada.

Still think US Markets empounding expected growth from what Trump will do, save a single policy or dollar having spent by his yet to come Government.

Lots of uncertainty to come with Populist movement and elections in EU.

I like what you say but I think much fervour in Markets for that which has yet to become reality…great expectations.

It is times like these when the unexpected happens.

I say wait until after January to change investments.

bsant

#95 When Will They Raise Rates? on 12.08.16 at 2:15 am

Chinese Driven Vancouver Housing Bubble Moves To Seattle – “This Is Vancouver 2.0”

Hey Mark (pitz on zerohedge), did you miss this? Didn’t see your comment over there…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-07/chinese-driven-vancouver-housing-bubble-moves-seattle-vancouver-20

#96 Rentin on 12.08.16 at 2:23 am

I would have thought rising interest rates puts a damper on equities as well.

You think Prem Watsa has it all wrong? He is betting, or more accurately has hedged himself against deflation of 1930’s style proportions by 2025.

QE can’t go on forever, or can it Garth?

#97 Millenial on 12.08.16 at 7:05 am

Two rate hikes in a year. Two more next year. — Garth

The Federal Reserve hiked rates 0.25% December 16th, 2015.

If they hike next Wednesday it will be ONE hike in 2016.

So, it’s only “two rate hikes in a year” if your calendar year started December 16th, 2015.

I’m probably a Russian, right?

Two Decembers. Two hikes. Duh. — Garth

#98 cto on 12.08.16 at 7:42 am

Remax says houses are goin up!

http://www.theprovince.com/business/cnw/release.html?rkey=20161208C1584&filter=4007

Are their math equations even possible to calculate a negative trend???

#99 pBrasseur on 12.08.16 at 7:51 am

Got my first monthly statement post Trump election.

Wow!!!!

Frankly I don’t care if he hires Mickey Mouse himself in his cabinet! Go Donald, give ’em hell :-)

#100 cto on 12.08.16 at 8:00 am

#45 Proud Condo Owner in TO

Best Place on Earth”! is it you???
Let me guess, you must have migrated from Vancouver!

You were saying the same same propaganda for that City! You’re now in Toronto!?

Did you escape before Van went into free-fall???

#101 cto on 12.08.16 at 8:09 am

.#32 Pepito on 12.07.16 at 8:02 pm
Let’s be honest for a change, so called ” free trade” was nothing more than politicians giving a green light to their business buddies to source their llabour in third world countries with Charles Dickens Era labour conditions with investors pocketing the massive profits while decimating skilled labour and the manufacturing industry in the developed world.

And the crap at Walmart is supposed to make it all good? Do you think people a stupid?

Rhetorical question, right? — Garth

————————————————-

Does that mean you agree with him Garth?

I know I do! Thanks .#32 Pepito , well put. WTF was supposed to help the developing world but the elites used it to their advantage. That’s why we have the supper rich today, and most come from developing countries.

#102 leftygroove on 12.08.16 at 8:13 am

“Back near the turn of the century, seventeen years ago, I wrote a book predicting the stock market (Dow) would double in numeric value by 2015, from 10,000 to 20,000. I was wrong – missed it by a year.”

Doubling in 15 years! Isn’t that an average of ~4.6%/yr? Quite low by historical standards. As a result I am very bullish on Dow growth in the next few years.

Poor doomers… claimed Deutsche Bank/Trump/Brexit/Italy/OPEC would sink the markets. Missed a lot of growth.

Doubling in 15 years, with the greatest financial crisis since the 1930s in between, is a mean feat. — Garth

#103 mishuko on 12.08.16 at 8:16 am

SM I’m in. always wanted to take a crack at ‘journalism’

hah!

#104 Jungle on 12.08.16 at 8:17 am

Just look at 1990s the s&p500. You never know if we are going to crash, or if market will go higher. I think most, including media, traders, etc did not expect a trump rally like this.

Just stay invested in balance portfolio is excellent advice over a long a time and ignore the news. 20 year CAGR on couch potato with 40% bonds is holding at 7.03% annual return. YTD it’s up about 6% now. Thats almost a quadruple your money in 20 years, consider all the world crises, two market crashes, banks folding, US housing collapse, greek debt, brexit, and other uncertainly.

Balanced portfolio is highly underrated and excellent way to prosper and grow your money in the stock market.

#105 pBrasseur on 12.08.16 at 8:21 am

«You think Prem Watsa has it all wrong? » #88 Rentin

He’s been very wrong so far and lost a lot of money because of it.

I don’t understand why some call him the «Canadian Warren Buffet»

Not even close and if you want to make money woul’d better listen to the real (and only) Buffet.

#106 pBrasseur on 12.08.16 at 8:24 am

#88 Rentin

One more thing

Rising rates don’t have to be a problem for equities if they are driven by growth and optimism, which is most certainly the case now, at least in the US.

Economic growth begets inflationary pressures which begets rising rates. It all begets more profitable companies, and plumping equity values. How hard is that to grasp? — Garth

#107 Stock picking cowboy on 12.08.16 at 8:36 am

You imply that “stock picking cowboys” have lost out on the rally, utter nonsense. I’ve made a decades worth of 6 % returns by your paltry measure. I gave you examples of before and after returns exceeding 6 % gains. This market has been a game of shooting fish in a barrel. Stop being ridiculous. 6 percent is not keeping up with consumer inflation….hope you like cat food.

Keep it in your pants, cowboy. I said people waiting on the sidelines trying to time markets get left behind. — Garth

#108 MAT on 12.08.16 at 8:49 am

@Smoking Man: I got the same email from Ezra Levant asking for cash. (He says I’m “one of his most faithful donors” – who knew, eh?) Of course I sent him some, but if you wanna get involved and make this into Breitbart North, that’ll be even better.

Now if we can get Pepe in a canoe, things will be looking up for sure.

#109 Toronto the good on 12.08.16 at 8:49 am

“today people in Toronto would be living in $450,000 houses” ?? In what 1st world city did you find prices like that or even double that for a sfd? Even in 2005, not to mention it’s 2016 now and much paper has been printed in the meantime (and some real wealth was created, accumulated and channeled into RE too) + Toronto and Vancouver have been rising to the top of best cities to live in.

There is a 100% correlation between low rates and high house prices. Had the GFC never occurred, rates would be at historically normal levels and so would real estate valuations. The statement is valid. — Garth

#110 Ace Goodheart on 12.08.16 at 9:07 am

Unfortunately this blog post is only half right.

Completely forgotten about is the great inflationary event which will make a million dollar house in Toronto seem cheap.

We are going to be in need of a “currency value adjustment” to make up for the problem of runaway government debt.

This will be done in the usual way.

This is already happening (you can see price inflation on imported goods).

This is why it’s not a good idea to hold money as actual money right now (or ever, really, unless interest rates are really good).

That’s why smart people invest. It’s why savers lose. — Garth

#111 Centre Wing on 12.08.16 at 9:11 am

My wife and I are both in defined benefit pension plans (public service in Ontario, surprise!). Anyone know how smart these plans are at investing? Mine matches my contributions and my wife’s matches 1.25
They’re great plans but I wish I could see more of what’s going on behind the scenes.

#112 outofcontext on 12.08.16 at 9:27 am

#127 Context on 12.07.16 at 11:08 am
Its ironic that in many ways Mexico is a third world country. Most homes do not have natural gas; one cannot drink the water; the school system does not exist; hydro costs are much higher; millions of dogs live on the streets; most people pay no income taxes; TV and internet sucks; cartel wars are everywhere; medical care is in chaos;….”

This post is wrong on almost every count. Sounds like you have spent too many drunken nights in Tijuana humming Tom Thumb’s Blues while watching reruns of the movie Sicario.

Try to visit one of the nice neighbourhoods in Mexico City like Polanco….hundreds of world class restos, great medical care, schools, pedigree dogs on leashes everywhere with wealthy owners…etcetc

#113 dodgedbullet on 12.08.16 at 9:38 am

#59 SmokingMan

https://www.reddit.com/r/metacanada/

another home away from home for you.

#114 IHCTD9 on 12.08.16 at 9:39 am

#84 dienekes on 12.08.16 at 1:05 am
http://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/alberta-electricians-angry-over-wage-deductions-1.3178412

not sure where the jobs are, and the ones in BC and Ontario pay shit. It is economic Armageddon out here on the prairies for construction.
Many companies are nearing insolvency. Lots of desperation. Housing is not dropping due to the government actions or interest rates. They are dropping due to no employment..
______________________

Join the club. I’ve already told my wife that I’d be amazed if I was still at work where I am now come the end of Trudeau’s tenure. Now with Trump at the helm and Trudeau plowing ahead insisting Canada becomes completely and utterly uncompetitive, I can’t see how things will improve in my industry.

This will eventually be round #3 for me in this business, I think it’s going to be my last. There is very little left, no one crazy enough to try and make a go of it again. As companies close up, no new ones sprout.

I think a nice secure, easy on the brain job stocking the shelves at the local LCBO would satisfy – no matter the salary. That way, I’d get to keep in touch with all my old working buddies.

#115 #45 the realtor on 12.08.16 at 10:28 am

just shutup already…..

#116 education on 12.08.16 at 10:28 am

Canadians need an education in personal finance. Thankfully, SLOWLY but surely its happening.

In Ontario, a personal finance course is available in high school as an elective. The textbook is good. The course should be mandatory

talk about real estate? how about the MILLIONS Canadians give away to financial advisors? INCREDIBLE.

They typically seek the big net worth folks.

what’s 1% of assets under management on a $3,000,000 portfolio?

folks , that’s $30,000/yr and MINIMUM $300,000 over a decade that you have forked over to Raymond James and the like

WAKE UP INDEED!!!!

#117 Alex on 12.08.16 at 10:30 am

Garth, why do you value the Dow to track the market? It’s antiquated, irrelevant, and there are much better market tracking indexes available.

I track everything. Most people think S&P stands for salt & pepper. — Garth

#118 IHCTD9 on 12.08.16 at 10:36 am

#83 meslippery on 12.08.16 at 1:00 am
#75 IHCTD9
That’s up for debate I think. A 20 hp Craftsman mower cost $4500.00 USD in 1981. What’s that, like 12 grand today? I have a 20 hp Simplicity Broadmoor that was like 3800 a few years ago.

Maybe but what did the yard and the house cost in
1981? I think you were still better off in 1981.
_____________________________________

I hear you – they were cheap, but then what happened to rates right after that? Was your wife a Lawyer making 6 figures back then?

It’s all a swirling tumbleweed of variables that make life great or make life suck.

I will say that the cost of housing is so significant, and huge, that the extreme pricing of RE in some cycles (whether by rates or market value) can override two, three, or even more upside variables that occur at the same time.

So life could have been better I suppose – for some it probably was.

#119 InvestorsFriend on 12.08.16 at 10:49 am

Public Pension Plan Investment Performance

#103 Centre Wing on 12.08.16 at 9:11 am asked:

My wife and I are both in defined benefit pension plans (public service in Ontario, surprise!). Anyone know how smart these plans are at investing? Mine matches my contributions and my wife’s matches 1.25
They’re great plans but I wish I could see more of what’s going on behind the scenes.

***************************************
Most public sector pension plans have very good track records of investment performance. The Ontario Teachers Pension Plan in particular has done extremely well.

You can look up their returns on their web sites, look for the annual report. You can also see where the money is invested.

In any case it is somewhat irrelevant as you will get the pension that was promised no matter how the investments do. When investments are poor the contributions tend to go up but these public service pensions are pretty much untouchable especially as regards past service already earned. Any changes would apply only to years worked in the future.

#120 Proof in the pudding... on 12.08.16 at 11:05 am

Garth, a quote from Elise Kalles…more confirmation why 416 is up 30% this year….

She says there is no comparison today with when she started selling 40 years ago, when it comes to foreign buyers. “You do see a lot of Chinese buyers (in the luxury) end,” she says.

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/harvey-kalles-and-what-it-takes-to-stand-alone-against-the-big-guns-in-international-real-estate

I know Elise well. Do you? She sells in a specific area where a large concentration of offshore money exists. In no way is it (or her) reflective of the broader GTA market. — Garth

#121 InvestorsFriend on 12.08.16 at 11:08 am

Actual Data and Sales Mix

So Mark starting claiming a couple years ago that the house prices were already flat in Vancouver and Toronto if one accounted for sales mix (same/similar house was flat).

Then he stuck with that as prices kept soaring. When Teranet data showed sharp increases he claimed that data had a lag problem and could not be trusted.

Only data can indicate the truth.

Statistics Canada has a new home price index that should be free of sales mix problems and lag problems, no?

Check the data in the CANSIM table.

Use add/remove data to see Vancouver and Toronto back over the years.

As expected, it shows that new house prices continued to rise in both cities and certainly have not been flat for several years. (Vancouver has flattened only in the past few months)

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26

I don’t mean to pick on Mark who appears to sincerely believe what he says. But I just want to point out that the data tells a far different story as far I can see.

#122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.08.16 at 11:11 am

@#48 Harold the Huge
“I’m normal. You are short.”

********************************************

“normal”?
So you dont shop at Mr Big and Tall?
You just elbow your way past the Wal-Mart house frau’s for the XXXXL pink stretchy pants?
Nice.

Statistically large people died younger.
Let me know where you’ll be buried and I’ll leave some flowers and an epithat.
“Here Lies Huge Harold
His pants were pickle barrels
Worked at a bar,
Couldnt fit in a car
He’ll no longer sing Christmas Carols”

#123 Ace Goodheart on 12.08.16 at 11:37 am

So doing my usual research into some oil companies that look interesting right now. By accident came across this little company that looks like it got crushed by the price collapse. Usual situation. In CCAA proceedings. Being sold off piece by piece by its creditors. Stock price hovering around a tenth of a cent.

For anyone who knows oil companies this little one is dead. It takes a long time, once the cash is raised to start operations, for an oil company to establish enough free cashome flow to begin to break even. The break even point is the point when the stock gets value and people start liking the company. This one was not at that point. It was at the point of an asset fire sale.

So just for fun I went to one of my favourite stock market blogs to see what investors were saying about this poor little wreck of a company. What I found reinforces my opinion that the price of a stock in no way represents the value of a company. I found that the consensus on this destroyed company was that, based on some research done which involved looking at charts and plotting courses of lines on graphs, the movement of this company’so stock in the past month meant it was on its way to recovery. Investors were rushing in. As they did so the stock’s price would rise, reinforcing the view that a recovery was underway. More charts and graphs were drawn up to confirm this.

There is a peculiar disconnect between the actual operations of companies whose stock is publicly traded and the valuation of the stock.

#124 analystissimo on 12.08.16 at 11:38 am

Garth before getting too excited, now is a terrible time to buy…don’t believe me? Read this…

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/take-a-step-back-before-you-buy-into-the-trump-rally.html

“This bump in the market is artificial,” Slott said. “This isn’t based on fundamentals; it’s based on news.

“We have a market based on Tweets.”

I have to agree and am expecting a 10-15% correction over the next 6 months…..

Nowhere did I tell people to buy. Everywhere I tell people to maintain a balanced portfolio and stop trying to time the market. Pay attention. — Garth

#125 Damifino on 12.08.16 at 11:41 am

#74 Ponzius Pilatus

Watched Dickens “A Christmas Carol”.
George C. Scott, great actor.
Amazing how it’s still relevant.
Screw the rich.

—————————————-

I have nothing against the great George C. Scott but no one will ever top Alastair Sim’s portrayal of Scrooge.

Screw the rich? I admit to a modicum of sympathy for the pre-transformed Ebeneezer. Here’s one of my favorite Scrooge quotes from the classic 1951 movie:

The world, that can be so brutally cruel to the poor, professes to condemn the pursuit of wealth in the same breath.

BTW, those Welsh miners really could sing, eh?

#126 pBrasseur on 12.08.16 at 11:41 am

Economic growth begets inflationary pressures which begets rising rates. It all begets more profitable companies, and plumping equity values. How hard is that to grasp? — Garth

Garth, interest rates respond to one thing and one thing only: The demand for money. When demand for money is high (people and companies don’t spend, save a lot and pile up money) rates are low. Rates rise when the demand for money slows and more are prepared to spend and invest. This is largely a global phenomenon of course, you can’t just look at Canada for example.

At this point we are starting form a situation where demand for money is extremely (even historically) high, as confidence returns the demand for money will slow which means more capital will be spent and invested and less will be available for lending. Obviously this will move interest rates.

Interest rates rise when people are confident and things are going well … or (at some point) when people are overly confident and get carried away, which usually means a recession is not too far ahead. We are very likely in the first phase and will be for a while.

Equities they do well (in the long run…) when companies do well, regardless of interest rates, trying to correlate the two is a losing proposition equivalent to trying to time the markets.

Canada is screwed because (for various reasons including commodity cycle and state intervention in the credit markets) the global demand for money cycle is disconnected from its economic reality.

#127 n1tro on 12.08.16 at 11:57 am

@Centre Wing

Who cares what your DBOs are doing. Most likely managed by mediorce fund manager. Even if the performance is bad, you are guaranteed your returns off of other tax payers. Enjoy your lottery win.

#128 Doug in London on 12.08.16 at 12:08 pm

@Smoking Man, post #43:
You have an investment in renables get the hell out while you have a chance.
——————————————————————-
What’s a renable? Do you mean renewable energy? My investments in AQN and NPI, both with renewable energy are doing just fine and if either or both drop in value I’ll scoop up even more.

#129 pBrasseur on 12.08.16 at 12:09 pm

There is a 100% correlation between low rates and high house prices. Garth

Not necessarily (not in a true free market) when low rates reflects high demand for money (low confidence) which makes (as it should) credit difficult to obtain.

Canada is not the only nation where that relation between rates and credit availability was broken, much of Scandinavia was on a debt binge as well while rates were low. There will be hell to pay for that.

Who cares about Norway? In Canada the correlation is absolute. — Garth

#130 Doug in London on 12.08.16 at 12:15 pm

The Dow Jones at 20,000! The funny thing is Harry S. Dent predicted it would hit that level in 2008 then drop down again for many years to come. You can decide for yourself how accurate that prediction came.

#131 Euro observer on 12.08.16 at 12:43 pm

Rates will increase. So money becomes more expensive. How is that driving inflation?
It is not. Inflation will be driven by increase in money velocity on already created money, inheritance from the current administration/Obama and his policies.

We know that savers who put trust in the so called ‘money’ (with price defined not by markets but by bureaucrats) are idiots, of course stocks are much better investment and DOW will not stop at 20 k but will keep climbing up all the way to 25 and 30 k.

What kills me is the idiocy of the debt slaves and the complacency of the so called ‘MSM/corporate media’.
Canada is becoming more programmed society in terms of political correctness, suppression of critical thinking than the socialism was in the so called former communist countries. Still better somehow than North Korea. For now. At least over there you won’t go to jail for disagreeing with sexual orientation of the premier of the province for example.

#132 Rob Bob Bobby on 12.08.16 at 12:53 pm

because stocks are too expensive”, this chart’s for you…

From an investing course I took

Cheap stocks can be expensive, and expensive stocks can be cheap

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.08.16 at 12:54 pm

@#117 Damfino
Total agreement.
The best Scrooge.
Alastair Sims……. hands down

#134 Euro observer on 12.08.16 at 12:59 pm

#118 pBrasseur on 12.08.16 at 11:41 am

Canada is screwed because (for various reasons including commodity cycle and state intervention in the credit markets) the global demand for money cycle is disconnected from its economic reality.
————————-

The housing bubble was a conscious decision of the Harper government.
In an environment at the end of the commodity cycle, with shrinking real economy and with financial institutions and companies demanding ever increasing piece of a shrinking pie what the incompetent ‘Expert’ economists and central bankers found as a solution was to put the sheeple deeper in debt with government guarantees by insuring the mortgage market.
Which is idiocy by itself.

Free credit markets in Canada? You must be joking.

Steal and redirect attention is the name of the game. Hence the smoke and mirror with the rights of the LGTB and whole bunch of other invented ‘topics of discussion’ that MSM is publishing lately.

#135 Ole Doberman on 12.08.16 at 1:19 pm

Sounds like Vancouver is looking like Vegas and Arizona back in the day – for sale signs left right and center:

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/12/02/vancouver-house-price-bubble-collapses-sales-crash-for-sale-signs
———————————————————
Open the link – you can see the pics for yourself

Rows of houses for sale

#136 turn of the tide on 12.08.16 at 1:29 pm

Here’s a question I’ve been thinking about…. House prices have gone up due to low interest rates, fine. It’s cheap to borrow money, so high demand. Ok.

Now, when rates go UP and cost of money is more expensive, house prices are predicted to go down.

HOWEVER, for a person purchasing a home, now cheaper to due to higher interest rates, isn’t the cost of borrowing higher? In other words, home prices may be lower BUT for a purchaser, now they’re paying much, much more in interest to service their mortgages/borrow money, no?

So in the end, in absolute costs, when is it really cheaper for the purchaser to buy a home? Is there a way to figure this out??

Thanks in advance.

#137 Tony on 12.08.16 at 1:42 pm

AMD upgraded to buy from underperform by Bank Of America. I made the switch from NVIDIA to AMD for most of my shares a couple of months ago. Just something to ponder as they move to the low cost producer in various areas.

#138 Smoking Man on 12.08.16 at 1:58 pm

For all You Trump Haters

https://therealstrategy.com/black-homeless-woman-says-trump-allowed-live-trump-tower-rent-free-8-years/#

#139 Eks dee Sipal on 12.08.16 at 2:09 pm

DELETED

#140 calgaryPhantom on 12.08.16 at 2:13 pm

Garth,

I understand you try to preach balance and having all asset classes in portfolio.

But using this trump rally to prove you point can be dangerous for your readers ( in short-mid term). By doing this you are implying that get into it before it is too late. In reality, this jump is temporary and all it would take is one tweet from trump to get a 10% correction in markets.

Markets will be disappointed by trump.

There is going to be a reasonable entry point soon for those trying to add US to their portfolio.

Wrong. I am encouraging nobody to enter the market now (how is this so hard to understand?) but rather using current events as an example that only fools try to time markets while seasoned, successful investors just stay invested. Waiting for ‘an entry point’ is plain dumb unless your time horizon’s six months. — Garth

#141 isuckless on 12.08.16 at 2:14 pm

SM “You can be anything you want, say anything you want that don’t get us sued. All opinions matter.”

In that case, I’ll keep quiet, otherwise I would spend the rest of my days in court

#142 IHCTD9 on 12.08.16 at 2:19 pm

#82 meslippery on 12.08.16 at 12:04 am
#75 IHCTD9 on 12.07.16 at 10:43 pm

Thing is in 1997 without finishing high school I grossed
$70k working hard as a truck driver. Thats 1997 $$$
Thats 20 years ago… How many truck drivers make
that today? not even adjusted for inflation.
Same time there abouts as free trade started.
Sure it cost more to go to the mall then, but you had a job with benifits and could pay the rent and see a better future. You did not have to live in your parents basement. Now you could go to walmart but thats it. Cheap goods to fix up your parents basement.
______________________________________

I got my DZ in the early 90’s and drove a water truck for 12.00/hr – if you made 70K driving a truck back in the 90’s you did way better than most unless you worked 80 hrs a week – every week. Semi truck maybe or paid by the KM?

The late 90’s was a time when good could be had once more. It was just before prices started tumbling on consumer goods, before the house price escalation, and before the interest rates tanked. I won’t argue that the late 90’s was a great time to get a job, make some money, and buy a house, then pay 1.5% interest on your sub-prime variable for term 2 and not much more on term 3.

Roll back to the mid 80’s. Imagine just having bought a house, everything costs a mint, your wife doesn’t make jack, then having to pay 18% on your mortgage, then having to suffer through the recession in the mid 90’s.

We’ve always had the ups and downs in the economy and RE market giving some folks good luck, and other folks bad luck.

However, I agree things suck right now, and they have sucked for a longer period of time than they have ever sucked before as long as I have lived. I do question just how bloody long it will be before things cease to suck any longer! These are NOT and will never be the “good old days” that is for sure.

#143 Brokerizer on 12.08.16 at 2:31 pm

U.S banks are rallying. And I mean, “reallying”. Look at BMO’s ZUB ETF… up more than Toronto house prices this year!

If rates keep going up from 2.40% to 3.00%… I think canadians will start shaking. Right now, we’re still in the “skepticism” phase.

#144 Mark on 12.08.16 at 2:50 pm

“Rates will increase. So money becomes more expensive. How is that driving inflation?”

The argument could be made that higher rates create more inflation by restraining investment in capacity. Due to higher hurdle rates thus associated with the investment in such capacity (ie: an increase to minimum/threshold IRR for investment!).

This needs to be contrasted with the impact that higher rates have on consumer consumption.

Higher rates, in my research, tend to favour industries and investments which very high capital barriers to entry (ie: “moats”). Long-term infrastructure such as utilities and railways. Mines and energy production, particularly long-reserve life projects. Terrestrial infrastructure-owning telecoms. Long-term fixed rate debt used to finance these projects becomes commensurately less expensive, in real terms, to service as inflation and rates rise.

The rising rate environment, of course, tend to disfavor sectors such as healthcare, retail, entertainment, real estate, finance, insurance, amongst others.

The TSX (TSE) historically outperforms the Dow during periods of rising long-term rates. And underperforms during periods of falling long-term rates (ie: the past 35 years). Much of this is due to the heavier weighting of the TSX index, and Canada generally to the sort of investments which benefit from higher long-term interest rates.

#145 Bottoms_Up on 12.08.16 at 2:55 pm

#48 Harold Svenson on 12.07.16 at 9:07 pm
———————————
Actually 6’6″ is 2 standard deviations above the average for a man, which puts you in the top 5%:
http://www.usablestats.com/lessons/normal

And if you’re a woman then you are off the chart.

#146 Penny Henny on 12.08.16 at 3:01 pm

There is a 100% correlation between low rates and high house prices. Had the GFC never occurred, rates would be at historically normal levels and so would real estate valuations. The statement is valid. — Garth

//////////////////////////////////////////

In 2001 I bought my Etobicoke home for $275,000.
In 2006 I sold the home for $450,000.
I don’t remember any stupid low lending rates during that time period yet the house rose in value 64% in 5 short years. Thus I would have to conclude the Toronto’s housing market price increases were not solely dependent on low borrowing rates.

#147 does anyone see a change in ... on 12.08.16 at 3:02 pm

the financial industry going forward? In the UK and Australia the number of advisers dropped dramatically when gross fee transparency was introduced.

will that happen in Canada?

It has got to increase stress in the profession, at the very minimun. Don’t beat the 60/40 index, AND have the fee the client see he/she paid $12,000 in fees? ugh

It’s coming into effect across the industry now, called “CRM2.” — Garth

#148 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 12.08.16 at 3:09 pm

Its almost Friday so how about some humor at the expense of millennials, of which by some accounts I am unfortunately considered a part of. Much to my chagrin.

No doubt there’s many here who’d jump at this opportunity to support such a pioneering effort for a great cause- these 10 million millennials…

Thanks Garth -and the steerage section- for the great reads daily

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGvrmltfMrA

#149 Ole Doberman on 12.08.16 at 3:42 pm

Wrong. I am encouraging nobody to enter the market now (how is this so hard to understand?) but rather using current events as an example that only fools try to time markets while seasoned, successful investors just stay invested. Waiting for ‘an entry point’ is plain dumb unless your time horizon’s six months. — Garth
——————————————————
Truth is this is how you make the big bucks and keep it – short 3-6 month trades.

Just look at the marijuana stocks, CGC in particular, the chart pattern showed the breakout, then finishing with a parabolic top. Sell, move on and look for the next mover and shaker.

If you can do that a few times a year you’re laughing.

#150 Londoner on 12.08.16 at 3:46 pm

From RBC Wealth Management:

“The Bank of Canada (BoC) enters 2017 ready to provide further stimulus if economic conditions warrant. BoC Governor Stephen Poloz indicated in November that new mortgage rules introduced by the federal government had given the central bank more latitude to consider stimulative monetary policies as any rate cut is less likely to add more fuel to a hot housing market. The BoC also reiterated its willingness to utilize unconventional tools, including negative interest rates and bond purchases, to achieve its policy goals if necessary.”

#151 Craig Weston on 12.08.16 at 4:27 pm

Garth, where are those net yields of 4.9% to 5.1% provincial strip bonds back in 2009.

We are now at 3.3% to 3.55% at most these days. Interest rates will still be lower than even 3 years ago, back in 2013, 4.2% net yields.

This is all a bounce back in rates but no real recovery to the past. People are dreaming of real higher interest rates for decades now, 6% to 6.5% back in 2000 when stocks were at their all time high. It is a fool’s game expecting a long period og much higher interest rates in coming years and decades.

#152 The Technical Analyst on 12.08.16 at 4:44 pm

Keep it in your pants, cowboy. I said people waiting on the sidelines trying to time markets get left behind. — Garth

Really? And you have stats for this to back it up that fundamental analysists do better than technical analysists?

#37 Polls R Phake “Volume is anemic.” Over 385 million shares traded on the NYSE today. You’re funny. — Garth

SPY technical chart:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CzGMjSgXUAAQK-c.jpg:large

#153 Mark on 12.08.16 at 4:46 pm

“Thus I would have to conclude the Toronto’s housing market price increases were not solely dependent on low borrowing rates.”

There were significant changes in lending standards over those years, which, in many cases, have the impact of lowering actual rates charged to actual borrowers. Particularly subprime borrowers, with the expansion of CMHC subprime mortgage insurance to include subprime borrowers with no downpayments (~2003), extending ultimately to no-money-down subprime loans with 40 year amortizations.

Before the loosening of lending standards, the same borrowers would have been paying rates approaching double digits with what we traditionally define as subprime lenders, rather than having their subprime loans with the major banks insured with CMHC subprime mortgage insurance.

Hence, Garth is right, falling rates and housing bear a high correlation. Until recently (past 3 years), of course, where rates have continued to fall, but house prices have stagnated/fallen. This is due to the sector being in a state of overcapacity due to disproportionate investment in the decade prior.

#154 The Technical Analyst on 12.08.16 at 4:47 pm

…and another if you are so inclined:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CzG8gl7XgAAlYmY.jpg:large

Yes, today, NYSE volume was up, today. But let’s ignore the fact the 2016 was a dog in volume.

#155 jess on 12.08.16 at 4:51 pm

cbc. investigates
Fake job, fake education, fake residency:

Fifteen former clients of an imprisoned B.C. immigration consultant have now been deported to China. And the failed appeals by two women who fought to remain in Canada provide a rare glimpse into the illegal tactics used to carry out what has been labelled as the biggest immigration scam in B.C. history.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/fake-job-fake-education-fake-residency-15-clients-of-fraudulent-immigration-scheme-deported-1.3886719

#156 Mark on 12.08.16 at 4:56 pm

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/sp/2016/2016-10-20-0900.cfm

“CMHC is the result of some real alchemy – and it works.”

— Evan Siddall, President and Chief Executive Officer, CMHC, to a conference in Quito, Ecuador October 19, 2016

“The existence of CMHC subprime mortgage insurance, which alchemizes risky subprime mortgage credit, into risk-free government bonds, features prominently into why this occurred. ”

— Mark, Greaterfool.ca comments, January 23, 2015 (and many times thereafter).

The CMHC head trolling Mark in his public speeches? Lol. I wonder if they read the blog here?

#157 Braj on 12.08.16 at 5:05 pm

#139 does anyone see a change in … on 12.08.16 at 3:02 pm
the financial industry going forward? In the UK and Australia the number of advisers dropped dramatically when gross fee transparency was introduced.

will that happen in Canada?

It has got to increase stress in the profession, at the very minimun. Don’t beat the 60/40 index, AND have the fee the client see he/she paid $12,000 in fees? ugh

It’s coming into effect across the industry now, called “CRM2.” — Garth

Specifically January 2017. I guess that means starting December 2017 people will realize how badly they’ve been taken for a ride?

#158 Toronto the good on 12.08.16 at 5:06 pm

“There is a 100% correlation between low rates and high house prices. ”

It was not higher rates keeping prices low in 2005. You could get a fixed 5yr for about 4.25%. HELOCS and variable rates were a fantastic deal, at or below prime rate. I remember being offered a variable below 3% even then, but I always valued peace of mind at more than $200/month.

Most buyers could afford more house, but they preferred putting money into other investments, as per the advice of the friendly talking heads on you local business network. They seemed to think there were shortages anywhere in everything – oil, copper, wheat and best investment opportunities were in places like Peru, Bolivia and Kazakhstan.

More than slightly lower rates after the financial crisis, it was the money it scared away from the stock markets – especially the emerging markets. That scared money will stay away from such places for a generation. In financial terms that would be 15-20 years. So I wouldn’t think things would change much for another decade, provided our politicians do not actively take turns at scaring it back.

#159 Context on 12.08.16 at 5:12 pm

#128 turn of the tide:- In real terms, when they are on sale for 1/2 the current price in the future.

#160 oncebittwiceshy on 12.08.16 at 5:54 pm

Henny Penny:

“In 2006 I sold the home for $450,000.
I don’t remember any stupid low lending rates during that time period yet the house rose in value 64% in 5 short years. Thus I would have to conclude the Toronto’s housing market price increases were not solely dependent on low borrowing rates.”

Well Henny, I would have to disagree as you can see that CMHC provided “lower interest rates in kind” with their introduction of 40 yr. mortgages and 0 down mortgages … coincidentally in 2006. Good timing, yes, other reasons for Toronto’s house price increases..doubtful.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-to-insure-interest-only-mortgages-in-a-bid-to-make-ownership-easier-1.571519

CMHC to insure interest-only mortgages in a bid to make ownership easier

For two years beginning in 2006, the CMHC offered insurance on mortgages with amortization periods of up to 40 years, nearly double the traditional 25-year period, and loans with zero down payments.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/business/a-mortgage-monster/

“By the end of December, 2006, the Toronto area market will have exceeded 80,000 resales for only the third time in TREB history.”

http://www.mississauga4sale.com/newsletter/TREBprice-December-2006.htm

#161 Toronto Realestate on 12.09.16 at 4:45 am

Thanks for the information

#162 fixie guy on 12.09.16 at 8:38 am

“First the feds diddled the real estate rules.”

Un-diddled. Chretien started the diddling.

#163 Myfeeeurope on 12.09.16 at 10:26 am

Hi deplorable here
I voted to stop the influx of Muslims and Mexicans and for a better security
Clinton would have been a security disaster
It’s not all about $$
But I thank you for your blog

What’s a Muslim or a Mexican ever done to you to deserve your bigotry? — Garth

#164 Brokerizer on 12.09.16 at 12:39 pm

Bonds

The U.S $TLT bond ETF has just broken last week’s low. I see proper Traders like Tentarelli shorting that bond ETF.

Let’s take a moment to thank traders for trying to push interest rates up.

Thank you sirs.

#165 Oakville Stinks on 12.09.16 at 1:03 pm

Galleries
.

‘Danger Report’: Real estate pros fret court could break lock on secret sales data

Final decision coming on Toronto Real Estate Board releasing coveted sales data

By Sophia Harris, CBC News Posted: Dec 07, 2016 5:00 AM ET| Last Updated: Dec 07, 2016 11:23 AM ET

*********************

Everyone is so MUM on this topic. Media isn’t reporting on this whatsoever to the magnitude they should! The internet is also really quiet. Is TREB expected to lose?

When can we expect a decision?????

#166 westcdn on 12.09.16 at 7:31 pm

When I grow grocery shopping I buy something for the food bank. I went hungry a few nights.