Why I rent

puppy

Over half of all new condos in Toronto are bought by speculators. Some call themselves investors. Some are proud flippers. Others crave to be amateur landlords, even if they lose money every month. About three in a hundred are foreign dudes, according to CMHC.

As mentioned a time or two, I rent a condo in the core. Steps from the soul-sucking office tower I’m occasionally held hostage in. It’s a cool space, but I’m not buyin’ it. As an owner, I’d be down over $1,200 more a month than my rent. Ouch. I’ll let the landlord take the hit.

Meanwhile directly beside my building is a new condo tower nearing completion. It’s 55 stories. In the last month the parking lot next door sprouted a sign announcing 28 new floors of condos. The venerable Albany Club down the street is being rezoned for a 25-storey condo tower. The site next to it is under construction for a 30-storey condo tower. Oh yes, directly across King street a heritage building now wears a placard warning it’s soon to shoot higher by almost 40 stories. Yup, all condos.

When I’m downtown on business for a few days a week, I walk Bandit in the only sizeable park for blocks, surrounding Toronto’s oldest cathedral. At 7 am there are enough dogs running around to fertilize Argentina. And Millennials everywhere, spilling out of their 500-square-foot boxes perched far above, blinking in the daylight.

Local realtors are reaping a high rise windfall at the moment, as recent mortgage rule changes and limited supply put detached houses, semis, townhouses or even garages out of reach. Sadly, many people don’t understand that real estate equals dirt, while condo ownership is more about space and risk – and not being a renter. I think all this activity will end badly, since without steady, consistent, annual appreciation in condo values, buying one of these units is a financial death trap. Especially if you plan on being a landlord.

A fatal flaw investors of all kinds have involves recency bias – believing what’s happening now, or has just taken place recently, will go on forever. It might be stocks, Hatchimals or condominiums. All the same. Most things bought for emotional reasons (like wanting ‘security’ in where you live) end up in distress. Just ask condo owners in Calgary, for example.

It’s a good example of what externalities can bring about. Crappy oil prices caused economic activity to decline and that sucked off jobs. Over 21,000 positions have vaporized in the past year – about 2.5% of all the jobs – and this has been enough to kick the crap out of all the people who, three or four or five years ago, thought it would be a great idea to buy a Calgary condo (or two) and rent it out.

The stats are now grim. There are 2,500 empty apartments in Cowtown for a 7% vacancy rate. That’s up three times in three years and at the highest level in 25. From a peak in 2014, rents have fallen between 25% and 35% – and are still declining. Landlords are throwing in free months of rent, paying moving expenses or coming over to give tummy rubs, all to get their units occupied. Condo prices, meanwhile, are traveling lower right along with lease rates.

Not just Calgary, either. Things are worse in Edmonton, in most of the Maritimes and Saskatchewan. In that flat province, for example, the apartment vacancy rate has bloated from 6.8% at this time last year to 9.4% today. The average rent is now below a grand a month. In Estevan, almost 30% of all apartments are unrented and unloved. In Saskatoon the vacancy rate tops 10%.

This is what happens when supply exceeds demand. In Alberta, Saskatchewan, parts of Quebec and much of the Maritimes, weak commodity prices and a sucky economy have brought condo prices and rents down simultaneously. In Toronto the threat is a surge in condo units hitting the market just as the draconian new mortgage rules transform the market and when mortgage rates are normalizing. Of course, you can be like realtor Casey Ragan, who yesterday put out a media alert to let everyone know how well he’s doing.

“In 2016, units are selling almost faster than I can show them,” he says. “Sometimes condominiums and lofts in some of the most popular locations are shown the same day as they are listed, or they are sold before the following day.”

Good for you. And who’s buying?

The speckers. The flippers. The wannabe landlords. Firsters. People without calculators.

Housing analyst Ross Kay tells me $191 billion in real estate equity has been lost in BC in the past five months, as sales and prices diminish. Meanwhile the nation’s lowest vacancy rates are in Vancouver and the Lower Mainland.

Not for long. And now you know what may be coming. Renters rock.

209 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 11.29.16 at 6:22 pm

I made a mistake this morning.I mislabeled this photo.
I have since found out that the photo I posted is of Joking Man giving a speech at a recent book signing…

M42BC

http://m.imgur.com/a/YkILP

#2 Rick on 11.29.16 at 6:23 pm

Please remember that Garth is awesome. Who else provides so much knowledge and truth every day…for free.

Garth is Good

#3 A box in the Sky on 11.29.16 at 6:23 pm

#75 jane24 on 11.28.16 at 12:47 am
I used to live in Cambridge, Ontario. Lovely place to bring up a family but well into the snow belt and a LONG way from a Toronto job. Not so bad if you work in Mississauga though. The 401 traffic was hell in 1992 when I left, I assume that it is much worse now. Does work for a Kit-Waterloo job though as you can take the back roads, which is where I worked.

I still can’t get over why when there is such a wonderful world out there, young people want to live in Canada and go through this daily commute hell for such little money and such a high cost of living. They trudge through the snow for basically nothing. In any other Western country, young folk would get out and find better options. Even the Greek and Italian youngsters move faster than the Canadian ones.

———————————————

Oh look the Brit xenophobe is back to lecture us Canadian peasants again. We truly do not deserve your great wisdom.

Comparing opportunities for a Canadian 20 something to their peers in Italy or Greece??

Not only are you a xenophobe, you’re an idiot

FOH

#4 Millenial-falcon on 11.29.16 at 6:27 pm

Not for long. And now you know what may be coming. Renters rock.

————

Why ? People are going to move out of van leaving landlords in a lurch to replace them? Nope

#5 mark on 11.29.16 at 6:31 pm

Worth your 15 minutes. Mark Blyth: “Global Trumpism” And The Revolt Against The Creditor Class

http://content.jwplatform.com/players/K9W3SCYN-EAYoNgFe.html

#6 Doug t on 11.29.16 at 6:35 pm

I have friends who think they are financial wizards cause their calculator tells them how smart they were to buy a place and rent it out – a calculator is only as smart as the person entering the numbers

#7 Victor V on 11.29.16 at 6:35 pm

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/11/29/liberals-approve-trans-mountain-line-3-pipeline-projects.html

OTTAWA–The Liberal government has approved two major pipeline projects, including a controversial plan to transport Alberta bitumen to British Columbia’s coast, setting up a showdown between Ottawa and local political and First Nations leaders.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced late Tuesday afternoon that his government has approved the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline expansion and Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline replacement.

The $6.8 billion Trans Mountain project would add 980 kilometres of new pipeline between Edmonton, Alta. and Burnaby, B.C. to open up a route to the Pacific for the Alberta oil sands.

The project has faced strong opposition in British Columbia, including from First Nations communities, Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson, and local Liberal MPs.

“To them, and to all Canadians, I want to say this: if I thought this project was unsafe for the B.C. coast, I would reject it,” said Trudeau at the press conference, flanked by several of his cabinet ministers.

#8 TRT on 11.29.16 at 6:37 pm

Trudeau approved Kinder Morgan and Line 3 pipelines today. Left Northern Gateway to be approved by future government in 5-7 years.

Got to stop that climate change. We must do our part. We must carbon tax Kanada’s citizens at a high rate of $50/ton. We must get the oil to those countries that don’t have a carbon tax.

We cannot complain about the carbon tax as the money raised goes into general revenues. Don’t ask why it’s called a “carbon” tax.

And lastly, if our resource corps need to reduce emissions based on future trade treaties, we have the option of carbon taxing citizens even more so we can reduce the border on the LNG and Oil industries.

So glad I live near the border.

#9 South Island Renter on 11.29.16 at 6:38 pm

The Greater Victoria region is still hot with rents going through the roof! This from a ‘Vancouver refugee’ from a few years ago.

When I lived in Vancouver, I could easily take solstice in knowing that paying 2.5k or more got me an almost million dollar house and my price to rent ratio was great. In South Island, it went from a 25% vacancy rate to almost none. People are paying over 2000 in rent for a 350K crappy house in small communities! I meticulously track the rents and confirm that this is the case.

The real estate market has finally softened in many areas but people are actually paying more in rent than for a mortgage! And no, these are not educated, discerning types who follow the predicted crash. People are being outbid in Victoria and flowing to the other regions and bidding up rents! There is still an outflow from Alberta (it seems) given all the license plates.

All I can say is that this better be short lived because if there is no correction soon, all those ‘smart renters’ are going to look like idiots if they end up paying more than the mortgage for many many years of a stagnant or slow melting market. The pop in prices took place over a year ago because of Vancouver refugees, priced out Victorians, and Albertans, and there is now a stalemate between buyers and sellers.

I am hoping that it will only be a year of these ridiculous rents as everyone has commented that rents always fall when sales drop and prices drop. That better be true because I can no longer rationalize renting to the wife with a young family when the price to rent ratios are skewed towards buying now!

#10 TRT on 11.29.16 at 6:39 pm

*burden should replace border above.

#11 Arcturus on 11.29.16 at 6:39 pm

I live in the Edmonton area and in the past week I was able to secure a 12% rent reduction with a single email message while providing nothing more than a piddly 6 month committment in return. Glad I don’t own a condo in this market!

#12 D Witcher on 11.29.16 at 6:40 pm

Saw a condo in Ottawa trade for $325K, $299k, $269k and now is listed for $248k … a sizable decline over 4 yrs – each person losing equity and on realtor fees. Not every place is like this of course… The unit is actually a nice 2bd 2bth. But cracks are starting to show in ‘O’ town.

#13 Victor V on 11.29.16 at 6:42 pm

CMHC mortgage insurance business continues to shrink in the third quarter, profits down

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/cmhc-mortgage-insurance-business-continues-to-shrink-in-the-third-quarter-profits-down&pubdate=2016-11-29

Rob McLister, the founder of ratespy.com, predicts insurance-in-force will soon dip below $500 billion for the first time since 2010 – a move that comes as outstanding mortgage debt has surged about 40 per cent in the same timeframe.

“The Department of Finance is systematically extracting government from the housing market. And consumers have no idea how much extra interest they’re going to pay because of it,” he says. “Yes, reducing government’s sponsorship of housing could lower home prices and yes, that could lead to smaller mortgages and less interest costs for new homeowners. But that over-hyped benefit won’t be permanent. Once the market adjusts, which might take two to four years or more, home prices will once again make new highs.”

#14 Londoner on 11.29.16 at 6:42 pm

Renting is great when it’s you and your dog. But add a few kids, an amateur landlord and a lack of suitable rentals in your neighbourhood and suddenly renting isn’t such a dream. Mobility has a price. For example, in my “hood”, comparable rentals are limited and commanding 30% premiums from when I signed my lease. If I want to stay where my kids go to school then I’ll have to deal with increasing rents, fewer options, higher competition and more moving. That isn’t to say I’m going to buy – but renting isn’t always the easiest option.

#15 F for Failure on the FBT on 11.29.16 at 6:43 pm

It looks like the initial shock and awe of the BC foreign buyers tax is wearing off as some here predicted it would.

“The number of foreign purchasers involved in Metro Vancouver residential real estate transactions increased from September to October, as the market continues to digest the 15 per cent additional tax applied to sales by non-Canadian buyers as of August 2.

For Metro Vancouver as a whole, the number of transactions involving foreign buyers rose from 1.8 per cent of the total in September to 3 percent in October, according to data released Tuesday by the province. ”

http://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/foreign-buyers-involved-in-more-metro-vancouver-residential-real-estate-transactions-in-october

So while a stalemate has taken place between buyers and sellers with no price declines, it looks like the market is going to be reinvigorated with foreign buyers that will then trigger the resumption of FOMO. Articles like this all add to the FOMO.

Sorry bears. Its not over till the fat lady sings and you started clapping for her before she even opened her mouth.

It looks like the 15% tax will have the exact same effect in Vancouver as the 15% tax in Hong Kong – it simply held prices flat for a year in 2012 and then prices resumed their upward trajectory!

#16 RentYVR on 11.29.16 at 6:44 pm

Here in lala land we have what’s called “laneway houses” springing up everywhere. Most people I know who bought a house in the last 5ish years have built one (and rented out their basements/attics) to help them pay for their $1m east van crack shacks. Crazy.

#17 will on 11.29.16 at 6:45 pm

Yup. It’s why I rent too. All those greedy people who bought houses or condos thinking they would have an income stream for retirement – well I think they weren’t greedy enough. If they were truly greedy they would have seen through all the sham marketing and all the sham economic reporting. I don’t care about any of them. At all.

#18 IM in C on 11.29.16 at 6:46 pm

I walked into my rental office here in Calgary to ask for a rent reduction. I was expecting them to offer $100 less a month. They offered me a $300 rent reduction!

#19 Dave on 11.29.16 at 6:47 pm

Vancouver real estate is on fire…literally. People are burning down houses now, can you imagine what’s going to happen when it actually crashes?

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/60m-in-vancouver-real-estate-targeted-by-suspected-arson-this-month/

#20 Lulu on 11.29.16 at 6:50 pm

RENTERS!!!!!! Are you ready?

Toronto condos price is dropping and units are not selling, go check it out on the MLS, even with trendy queen west a woosy ooosy hard loft is not selling after slashing 10k within a month. Imagine the older and less attractive one? OMLord!!!

#21 Ray Skunk on 11.29.16 at 6:52 pm

I’ve mentioned before on here that I rent.
1000sqft in a charming house in one of Toronto’s nicest neighbourhoods. Steps to transit (as the Realtors would say), back yard, driveway parking spot, garage.
Crucially, hydro is included (up yours Wynne).

The best bit? I pay less than 5% of my gross income for the “indignity” of being a renter.

I get looked down upon a lot, but those who do haven’t seen my savings. God bless my landlord.

#22 ole Doberman on 11.29.16 at 6:53 pm

Thanks Gartho for this peice. I felt really small watching Grey Cup this wknd with buds asking me why i still rent and should be jumping into the Calgary RE mkt since now is the time to buy cause its “soft”

So you think its still going lower?

#23 ANON on 11.29.16 at 6:56 pm

$191 billion in real estate equity has been lost in BC

People will insist somebody stole it, not that it was not lost, because it will never be found. Truth is, it did not even exist to begin with…:)

#24 MSM-Free Zone on 11.29.16 at 7:00 pm

With a Land-Transfer-Tax addicted Ontario Liberal Premier (Wynne) in bed with an OREB CEO former Conservative Premier (Houdak), I can’t see a return to genuine supply/demand market forces in the GTA housing market anytime in the near future.

Three more years I can retire and leave this Sodom/Gomorra in my rear-view mirror.

#25 TurnerNation on 11.29.16 at 7:11 pm

Despite today’s navel gazing entry rents in downtown Toronto will only rise.

What was 1400-1500 two years ago, now is $1700-1800/mo – this is for tiny one bedroom.
(Even in crappy downtown areas.)

Falling condo prices will sticky rental prices, as owners recoup paper losses. And renters will eschew buying as always. All in the face of tighter mortgage regs.

My rental owned by a good REIT hits most tenants with the max increase yearly. No oil shock coming to GTA..

#26 bb on 11.29.16 at 7:12 pm

Renters will always subsidize landlords’ properties (prop tax, condo fees, mortgage interest, insurance). And use the remaining income to pay off their principle.

Get a calc for Christmas. — Garth

#27 Londoner on 11.29.16 at 7:13 pm

I once had an amateur landlord tell me that I (as a tenant) was responsible for 50% of the cost of repairing and replacing appliances and the heating system. No amount of arguing could convince him otherwise (apparently this is the way things work for tenants back in China). Anyways, I quickly legged it from that house but was surprised to see that it was leased a few days later. I wonder if the landlord finally realized how things work in the UK or if he managed to find some amateur tenants who didn’t know any better.

#28 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.29.16 at 7:14 pm

@#3 Disgruntled Millennial-

I sense the butthurt in you. Let it go. Channel that energy towards your life. You don’t start at the top.

@All. Wow T2 is a hypocrite. Shocking I know.

#29 Alice on 11.29.16 at 7:14 pm

The city of Toronto isn’t going to stop building though, they’re cash strapped and need the property tax revenue.

#30 Mark on 11.29.16 at 7:14 pm

“Left Northern Gateway to be approved by future government in 5-7 years. “

Northern Gateway was so technically and environmentally flawed that even the Tory controlled NEB couldn’t stomach giving it an approval. Sure, they ‘approved’ it, but with so many conditions so as to constitute a non-approval. Exporting raw oil to Asia, when North American refineries continue to use imported feed in many cases, makes absolutely no sense for Canada. It was even more insane to transport the oil through some of the most untouched non-arctic areas of the planet.

The other pipelines approved, and Energy East (not yet approved) are basically no-brainers. They transport oil in support of domestic consumption or export within North America.

I walked into my rental office here in Calgary to ask for a rent reduction. I was expecting them to offer $100 less a month. They offered me a $300 rent reduction!

A fact that certainly no pro forma promoters of rental real estate were pushing just a few short years ago. Prices have also fallen significantly in Calgary since the 2011 apex with no end in sight. Meanwhile, due to lower labour and input costs, many of the larger established O&G outfits are actually showing decent results given the decimation in pricing. Lots of specuvestors probably wish they were sitting on a portfolio of inflating Suncor stock than deflating Alberta RE.

#31 Dave on 11.29.16 at 7:16 pm

I don’t see where the money is lost in Vancouver if they are still selling 500 sqr ft condos for over half a million

#32 Boombust on 11.29.16 at 7:21 pm

Well! It looks like the CTV Noon News here in Vancouver today NEGLECTED to mention when doing a “story” about those condo pre-sales in Burnaby that those paid shills lining up for $1800.00 for the next few days are, in fact, PAID SHILLS!

Shoddy!

#33 dr talc on 11.29.16 at 7:22 pm

India turns the screws…

“state-issued paper currency exists only at the sufferance of the State. It can be made worthless by decree.”

withdraw today, avoid the run

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=47922

#34 Cha-ching on 11.29.16 at 7:23 pm

Coworker asked where I lived. Said just moved to the city 4 years ago and renting, not the best area in town but heck I have a dog so options are limited. He gets on my case, tells me he just recently paid his house off and is retiring in mid next year. Your throwing your money away renting he says. Only took him 28 years to pay his house off, paid it off early he says!!

I replied ….. I have been working here for 4 years and saved up 250k to buy house cash. Don’t want to slave my freedom away for bricks and drywall.

For some reason he want talk to me anymore??
Was it something I said?

#35 Dave on 11.29.16 at 7:27 pm

Calgary is hooped, and not only their real estate market. By failing to diversify their economy and putting money into general revenues instead of their Heritage Trust fund, it is only 18 billion, whereas Norway’s is close to a trillion. Of course the decision to have no sales tax makes the province more vulnerable to commodity swings. Of course many think that much of this money has gone to equalization payments, whereas equalization payments are actually based on individual taxpayers and businesses. Inventory is mounting and so are job losses. I have seen rent reduction signs and I think many who bought condos to rent out will soon wish they hadn’t

#36 Nothing New on 11.29.16 at 7:28 pm

#19 Dave

This is nothing new a few undesirable places have gone up in flames to be replaced by condos. Ex:, the Dow st. Apartments in Bby, The Front street “Heritage” buildings in New Westminister and some other ones I can’t recall @ the moment. All mysteriously (lol) burned to the ground all replaced with condos within a year.

#37 IHCTD9 on 11.29.16 at 7:32 pm

All those millennials who bought condos are going to get cleansed by fire. No matter if they are living in them, renting them, or are just sitting on them hoping for capital appreciation.

No dirt means no long term appreciation, and the current Federal attitude towards RE along with our failing economy (especially in Ontario), means no short term appreciation either.

C’est la vie, mon ami, live and learn (the hard way of course).

#38 Renting is Fun! on 11.29.16 at 7:34 pm

I rent in Toronto. I live in a nice area. I pay less for my rent here than I did in the suburbs. It’s cheaper for me here and most utilities are included. I have zero debt, freedom to leave when I want and about a million bucks in a healthy mix of investments and savings. Like I said, renting is Fun. All those over leveraged debt slaves should try it sometime, I highly recommend it.

#39 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.29.16 at 7:34 pm

The housing market correction process has basically kicked off in all major cities in Canada, except in Toronto. But, as Garth points out, it won’t be long before things begin to change there as well.

In Victoria, sales of detached houses have shriveled by 48% since April.

Sales of detached houses in Saanich East posted the lowest (October) level since 2013 and were lower, year-over-year, by 18%.

Similar signs of a changed market are evident in many other areas of Greater Victoria.

Falling sales levels indicate that prices will begin falling soon. That’s a well-established real estate fact. Another one is that prices fall as rates rise – a nasty part of the reality that many mortgage holders probably don’t understand because they didn’t do their homework before taking on massive mortgages at peak (bubble) prices at record-low rates.

Canada’s housing market has been under an extreme amount of stimulus since 2000 or earlier, when mortgage lending standards began to be loosened.

The result was higher house prices.

Now the opposite process has begun – removing chunks of that stimulus by making the lending standards more stringent (like they were in the past).

The result will be lower house prices.

Indeed renters will not be subject to the crushing financial blows of the coming major price correction (crash?). Vacancy rates will rise and rents will fall as the correction unfolds. To prove to yourself that this is how it goes down all you need to do is study housing corrections in other cities around the world. Locals in Victoria may remember that the vacancy rate climbed significantly and rents dropped in 2010 as house prices began to fall.

An orderly, controlled, safe market correction is not an option when you’re dealing with a major housing bubble. That may be something that happens in fairy tales. Unfortunately for mortgage holders, the housing bubble is 100% real. The financial consequences for mortgage holders will be real also.

#40 Suede on 11.29.16 at 7:37 pm

Renting is not cool.

when you tell people you’re in your 30s and rent, you might as well tell them you don’t wash your hands after wiping your butt. It’s the same look.

For some reason it’s cooler to own and be piss poor and live like a serf. I don’t get it. But then again, I didn’t vote for Trudeau.

Ask millenials.

But that’s none of my business.

Cue the Kermit meme

#41 jay on 11.29.16 at 7:39 pm

Trudeau and Macallum will fix this problem ,they’ll just increase immigration level’s to 1 million per year , they’re already half way there. https://canadianvisa.org/blog/blog-category/ceo-recommends-canadian-immigration-levels-increase-1-million-per-year/

2017 immigration cap is 300,000. — Garth

#42 BillyBob on 11.29.16 at 7:40 pm

Oh look the Brit xenophobe is back to lecture us Canadian peasants again. We truly do not deserve your great wisdom.

Comparing opportunities for a Canadian 20 something to their peers in Italy or Greece??

Not only are you a xenophobe, you’re an idiot

FOH

===================================

She did not say the opportunities were better in Italy or Greece than in Canada. She was saying that the Italian and Greek young people were much more mobile and motivated to go where the opportunities are, than Canadian young people.

I would agree. Most Canadians seem very fearful of leaving their socialist paradise, not having a clue there is far more out there and that Canada is a tiny grain of sand on a very large beach. The irony is that Canadians like to smugly style themselves as sophisticated and worldly (particularly compared to their southern neighbours) but from what I’ve seen the minds are pretty narrow north of the 49th.

Perhaps you should work on your own comprehension skills before referring to others as idiots?

#43 boonerator on 11.29.16 at 7:43 pm

#9 South Island Renter sez:
“In South Island, it went from a 25% vacancy rate to almost none. People are paying over 2000 in rent for a 350K crappy house in small communities! I meticulously track the rents and confirm that this is the case.”

Drive down Larchwood, 500 metres from UVIC.
1800 sq ft, 3 level townhouse for $1700.
Kids welcome and there are a lot of them in the playground over our back gate. Wonderful sounds.

#44 NorthOf49 on 11.29.16 at 7:45 pm

#14 Londoner on 11.29.16 at 6:42 pm

Renting over the past 8 years has worked for us. We’re both professionals, we have 4 kids between the two of us. Here in Ancaster, outside Hamilton, we’ve never had a problem finding a decent home to rent. For the two places we’ve rented, the landlords were more than happy to have us as tenants as they knew we had no trouble paying, we looked like an “executive” family, and I’m handy enough to fix the small things that needed repair. We left our last rental after 5 years as we didn’t need the space when the kids got older. That landlord was sorry to see us go. He never raised rent once in 5 years. The current landlord hasn’t raised the rent in 3 years either. We’ve always paid under market rent as well knowing that being handy and scheduling a cleaning lady every two weeks to clean your landlord’s house locks you in at a good rate with no threat of eviction. If we’re ever shown the door, I’m not worried. We’ve got options to rent other places, or if worse comes to worse, we’ll buy a fixer upper in Hamilton with the cash we’ve saved over 8 years.

#45 Context on 11.29.16 at 7:46 pm

#9 South Island:- CAPREIT owns a few nice apartment buildings in Victoria and the rents are cheap. Not going through the roof.

#46 Bram on 11.29.16 at 7:46 pm

East Van has gone down hard now.
One of my neighbours sold a tear-down on a wide lot, in june, for almost 2.4M
https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMkFSTQ==

So another neighbour thought he would do the same with his tear-down on a 33′ lot.
First ask was 1.8, then dropped to 1.6 and then sold last week for 1.4M.
If he had sold in june, he would have gotten the original asking price (and more.)

Both neighbours probably owned for decades, so made out like bandits.
But one timed it oh so right, on the absolute peak of the market.

#47 IHCTD9 on 11.29.16 at 7:48 pm

#24 MSM-Free Zone on 11.29.16 at 7:00 pm

Three more years I can retire and leave this Sodom/Gomorra in my rear-view mirror.
_________________________________________

Aye, don’t look back.

#48 Mr Schadenfreude on 11.29.16 at 7:52 pm

Many people in Calgary are delusional/holding on by a thread. Everyone keeps saying its going to turn around soon, blah blah. Its not turning around soon. Its bad getting worse, worst is yet to come. A wave of personal bankruptcy and misery cant come soon enough.

:)

#49 S.Bby on 11.29.16 at 7:57 pm

#16 RentYVR
to help them pay for their $1m east van crack shacks.

East Van crack shacks are now going for $800K.
4248 Slocan Street
Original list -1.359M
Reduced – $1.199M
Sold – $800K

#50 Context on 11.29.16 at 8:04 pm

There goes my Spring vacation to paradise as there is no place left to go. Gatlinburg Tenn. has gone up in Smoke and is no more, but at one time was a beautiful piece of Real Estate.

#51 Linda on 11.29.16 at 8:08 pm

Love the puppy photo! Regarding the condo thing – I’ve never been a condo fan. I can see some of the attraction – lock it up, head off knowing that the maintenance will be taken care of & presumably a better level of security – but the fact that after buying your unit you pay a monthly fee in perpetuity AND you have to adhere to the condo bylaws (no flowers taller than 12 inches in height, for instance) is not a bargain I’d be willing to accept. For those who mention the maintenance etc., have any of you looked at what $300 per month would get you for outdoor maintenance in a detached dwelling? Plus you don’t get zapped with ‘special’ assessments on top of the monthly vig! Plus if you choose to paint your trim hot pink with yellow polkadots, no condo board will shut you down (though the neighbours might squawk – or avoid looking in your direction).

Regarding rentals in Estevan – I’d feel more concern if we were talking major metropolis here, but given the population is maybe 13,000 people I don’t think a 30% vacancy rate is something to worry about unless you are a landlord in Estevan. Seriously, how many rental units are we talking about here? If there are 100 for the entire town & 30 are empty, there is your 30% vacancy rate. Hardly the stuff of nightmares except for the landlords who may be depending on those units being rented.

#52 Spectacle on 11.29.16 at 8:10 pm

Regarding :

#19 Dave on 11.29.16 at 6:47 pm
Vancouver real estate is on fire…literally. People are burning down houses now, can you imagine what’s going to happen when it actually crashes?

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/60m-in-vancouver-real-estate-targeted-by-suspected-arson-this-month/

******** pretty interesting site Dave, ******
I notice it doesn’t include the church at 42nd and arbutus ( east Boulevard) in vancouver. Torched to the ground, and it has a massive billboard for the condo project. Calculate that, Demo including disposal and hazmat removal : a pack of matches. And then there are the small warehouse fires….

#53 DON on 11.29.16 at 8:16 pm

ww.kijiji.ca/v-view-details.html?adId=1215455710

Two bedroom 1920s house in Vancouver South $1950

Only a two bedroom – but still a house. Will we see more of this.

#54 Over half of TSX on 11.29.16 at 8:19 pm

DELETED

#55 Linda on 11.29.16 at 8:19 pm

Did a search re: number of rentals in Estevan. As per the local news (Estevan Mercury) there were 576 rental units in mid-2015. So a 30% vacancy rate means some 153 units are vacant. There are probably some condo towers out there with more vacancies than all of Estevan.

#56 traderJim on 11.29.16 at 8:23 pm

I bet a lot of amateur landlords don’t include wear and tear/depreciation/maintenance costs for the inside of their condo, thinking that the monthly maintenance fee covers it all.

And they will be surprised that the initial low maintenance fee skyrockets as soon as everyone takes possession.

#57 Randy on 11.29.16 at 8:26 pm

Don’t need no stinkin mortgage.

#58 Setting the Record Straight on 11.29.16 at 8:30 pm

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-29/trump-utx-agree-deal-save-1000-jobs-indiana-carrier-plant

Tweeted by David FabERof CNBC

WHen you’re in a hole stop digging!

#59 Ret on 11.29.16 at 8:35 pm

At 7 am there are enough dogs running around to fertilize Argentina. And Millennials everywhere, spilling out of their 500-square-foot boxes perched far above, blinking in the daylight.

Somehow, this doesn’t sound “World Class,” to me. It is no wonder that so many retirees in Toronto quickly head for the burbs.

#60 OffshoreObserver on 11.29.16 at 8:38 pm

Lunatics.

I sold my downtown Vancouver apartment block in 2010 for 3.7MM.

My motel room on the beach [how much is enough?] in Vietnam is USD250/month.

My dogs love me.

My GF, a nubile 29, loves me–I am 63.

More later…

#61 European Fans support Garth Turner on 11.29.16 at 8:45 pm

Garth, you have a fan in Eastern Europe or Russia (?) who would support your views:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNe45nFOkxg

Apparently, Toronto real estate is that bad that someone from a frozen tundra far in Europe/Asia is taking notes about the real estate bubble.

#62 Smoking Man on 11.29.16 at 8:47 pm

Downtown booze up tomorrow night.. Who’s in.

Turner nation.. Where to go? It’s been a while.. Where is cool.?

#63 Damifino on 11.29.16 at 8:54 pm

#28 Bytor the Snow Dog

“@All. Wow T2 is a hypocrite. Shocking I know.”
——————————

Not exactly. He’s just had a crash course in pragmatism.

#64 Toronto foreign tax coming... on 11.29.16 at 9:04 pm

http://app.toronto.ca/tmmis/viewAgendaItemHistory.do?item=2016.EX20.44

Council voting soon on getting 5 years worth of non resident purchase / Sale data…

New tax on the way next year… Maybe right in time for spring market

#65 crossbordershopper on 11.29.16 at 9:14 pm

sometimes i dont understand garth logic, for convenience reasons he rents because its close to work, even though i am sure our past government employee, turn investment guru has millions. he rents because he wants too. i am sure he has numerous homes in oakville, milton, and cottages in the north. 99% of people who rent,rent because they cant afford to buy. not the same thing, not the same financial decision. one is a choice the other is the only choice. the banking syndicate control everything, either your in or out.
then you recommend to use all the vast nestegg to invest in pref’s and reit’s. millionaires playing games while they sip their wine. others struggle to pay the rent on wednesday as do millions of us every month to some greedy landlord and struggle to feed our children and pay the bills.when is the last time you bought no name brand dog food, others do for their kids. no choice.

#66 Smoking Man on 11.29.16 at 9:17 pm

See why winter sucks. No more ice cream till april.

http://www.belfountainstore.ca/

#67 Trev on 11.29.16 at 9:22 pm

#12 D witcher
Saw a condo in Ottawa trade for $325K, $299k, $269k and now is listed for $248k
=============================

Sounds almost like the one I’m renting here in OTown (2bd/2bath as well). Repo’d by the bank a year ago (Nov/15) & put up for sale at 325k the end of the July .. One reduction to 315k .. Listing expired & just relisted the end of October for 295k

#68 OffshoreObserver on 11.29.16 at 9:26 pm

I just gave up.

I’ll pay my taxes.

John Galt rules.

#69 Reply to #3 on 11.29.16 at 9:27 pm

#3

Respect is key here. Don’t call someone an idiot for suggesting that there are greener pastures outside of the SJW hellhole Greater Toronto metropolis.

Toronto isn’t that great. It sucks. If Toronto were that great then why would the Queen’s Park politicians rally on anti-Canadian middle class values?

Why would politicians in Toronto suggest that a 50 cent dollarette is good for us when 90% and over the world trades everything in the Federal Reserve notes, including x-rated services in those sex tourist cities where Canadians flock by the millions, both men and women alike?

Calling someone an idiot and a racist without any proof is so 2015, to speak in your language.

I lived in T.O. for about three 1/2 years, and something really sucks about the city. The mood of that city is not that great or lively. You either have to work as a wage slave in a corporation, or you either have to live under constant fear of Kathleen Wynne’s politically correct legislation as an entrepreneur.

Don’t get me wrong—Toronto USED to be great for business start-ups, but with many of my beer buddies complaining about Toronto becoming a politically correct SJW city where women attack men just because of their gender, made me transfer my investments to a low-tax state in the USA because I know that my investments will be taxed heavily when the housing collapse comes in Toronto and Vancouver.

I delayed marriage for over a year because of the risks of divorce in Ontario. That was exactly why I moved my wealth away from there.

The USA does have their problems, but I’d rather keep my money away from Kathleen Wynne and her SJW pals. It’s not “tax evasion”, but the benefits of a dual-citizenship.

One less penny in Toronto is better for all of us.

#70 rainclouds on 11.29.16 at 9:27 pm

http://www.businessinsider.com/canadas-housing-boom-and-bust-2016-11

#71 betamax on 11.29.16 at 9:29 pm

Gath: “real estate equals dirt”

That’s akin to saying only gold is money. Things are worth what people will pay for them; they don’t require physical presence to have value.

#72 For those about to flop... on 11.29.16 at 9:30 pm

Dave #31on 11.29.16 at 7:16 pm
I don’t see where the money is lost in Vancouver if they are still selling 500 sqr ft condos for over half a million

//////////////////////////////

Hey Dave,you almost connected the dots and answered your own question.

Most of the large reductions are on detached houses…

Flopper
M42BC

#73 RIL on 11.29.16 at 9:33 pm

My Dell Latitude D620 purchased used 4 and 1/2 years ago is seriously ill so I cannot provide links to the articles referenced below.

Two pipeline announcements today from the PMO. I have questioned the conventional “wisdom” in Alberta that more pipelines will cure what ails us. I am not a student of economics and everything I know about the subject I learned here. But I have a question. How does delivering more product to an oversupplied market lead to better prices for Alberta’s bitumen?

We do have to consider the fact that another buyer for our gunk lessens the impact of the US being our only customer (and biggest supplier) hence a price maker and not a taker. Who knows.

I read whatever Nikiforuk writes in the Tyee. He does not address the issue of export to other customers in his articles I mention below.

Google:

“Four Harsh Truths For Canada’s Lovestruck Pipeline Politicians”

“Pro Pipeline Fantasies Knocked Down”

In any event, if the news puts a lift in the step of Albertans, that is OK with me.

#74 Rexx Rock on 11.29.16 at 9:37 pm

Just rented out a small studio in Puerto Vallarta for $245 cad a month includes util.Have to thank my American neighbor who told me about it.12 min to the beach and 50 cents to take the bus anywhere in town.This place is like a Palm Springs of Mexico.Old Canadians everywhere.

#75 Wrk.dover on 11.29.16 at 9:48 pm

Do the windows really pop out of those tall condos when the wind howls, or is that just a rumor?

#76 Hawk on 11.29.16 at 9:51 pm

#42 BillyBob on 11.29.16 at 7:40 pm

================

Having travelled over Italy it didn’t appear to me that most young people were motivated to relocate for better opportunities. Tons of them seem to loaf around the streets, while middle aged people were working.

I would agree that the welfare state in Canada is bad, but from what I understand from Italians themselves, its even worse over there.

And the standard of living in Canada is higher. All in all, only Northern Europe wins over Canada in dynamism or prosperity, the South and East, not so much.

#77 kat on 11.29.16 at 9:52 pm

@ South Island Renter
Really rent is through the roof? I am from the Island have family and friends who own and rent out houses there as well as several who are landlords. Rents do not rise there as they do here as much and keeping renters there is very difficult because there is little high paying work. My good friend sold one of her rentals because we discussed how the bubble was going to burst soon and she could not get enough rent to cover all the expenses with keeping it as a rental She sold it to someone from Surrey who wanted it as an income stream. You seem very ill informed.

#78 Smoking Man on 11.29.16 at 9:57 pm

I feel fricken exhausted. Is it just me?

I keep lying to myself why I’m so burnt out.

It can’t be the 3 trips to Seneca a week, two packs of smokes a day, chased down with an assortment of wine and the hard stuff. Mabey I should slow down a bit, recharge the batteries so to speak. I might.

The utter disappointment of very limited sales of a thing I put my heart and soul into for over six years.

I knew I wouldn’t be a best seller but I thought I would have at least hundred souls laughing at all my pokes at life. Not even close to that number.

The only thing that is energizing me slightly is thought of doing a sequel. The emails and positive reviews are encouraging. You dogs got to write the reviews where you got the book.

I’m thankful I don’t make a living doing this shit. I could not even survive as a homeless bugger.

At any rate, I thank the dogs that took the time to read it. I’m working on the sequel for 51 loyal dogs. We all need a purpose.

#79 GsAmazon on 11.29.16 at 9:59 pm

Tummy rubs?! People without calculators. !!!!

It’s posts like these that keep the gf addiction going strong….lol

Better get hip waders for when the rest of those towers go up – for the dog poop and tears.

#80 kat on 11.29.16 at 10:08 pm

At 7 am there are enough dogs running around to fertilize Argentina. And Millennials everywhere, spilling out of their 500-square-foot boxes perched far above, blinking in the daylight.

This sounds like Yaletown in Vancouver, it reeks of dog piss in the whole neighborhood. There is even fake grass now laid down in front of many of the overpriced condos because the real stuff is dying from all the urine. Real classy stuff but at least there are several Starbucks in the area to keep it worth the big money paid to live there.

#81 Mark on 11.29.16 at 10:11 pm

“My Dell Latitude D620 purchased used 4 and 1/2 years ago is seriously ill so I cannot provide links to the articles referenced below.”

Time for a new one. That was a great laptop when the office got me one 10 years ago, but its time has come and gone. A few hundred bucks gets you a much nicer newer one.

“How does delivering more product to an oversupplied market lead to better prices for Alberta’s bitumen?”

How exactly is the United States an oversupplied market? They still import 8-9 million barrels per day of the stuff, and domestic shale production is depleting rapidly on account of the low prices and economics which never really provided for long-term full cycle profitability even at the $70-$90/barrel experienced in earlier years.

Its somewhat of a falsehood that if magically oil were shipped to Kitimat and placed “on water”, that the oil would receive Brent crude prices. The oilsands-derived bitumen, in its non-upgraded form, is of a significantly lower grade and requires extensive upgrading before it can be fed into global refineries. It will always trade at a discount to light sweet. Too many in the oil industry have been peddling the narrative that a pipeline to “tidewater” (as they call it) would solve the differential problem. It would not. The Trudeau government’s actions with respect to carbon taxes are questionable at best, but I think they got this set of decisions right. Incidentally, low prices and excess differentials should be used as a sort of economic ‘signal’ that there’s overinvestment in the O&G sector, and that investors are well advised to divert incremental capital elsewhere.

#82 For those about to flop... on 11.29.16 at 10:19 pm

Some chatter on the blog about Greece and Italy.

So I will leave this here.

Which country in the world has the most unsustainable debt?

They both feature prominently ,but they don’t win the title…

M42BC

https://howmuch.net/articles/countries-scaled-to-the-unsustainability-of-their-debt

#83 Smoking Man on 11.29.16 at 10:21 pm

Erdogan Now Says Turkish Forces Are In Syria To Overthrow Assad.

Bahahahha.

Hello, I’m slightly hammered but something tells me. Vlad is going to have a problem with that. But will hold off until Jan, his new BF has his back, image that, two logical hetero sexual minds come together.

Perhaps that’s the plan, the globalists last stand, like an old smoker gasping for its last breath.

With Obama still in control of the big red button he wants to start world war3 so, the trans community can keep their makeup on and trash the low life white straight patriarchy.

Bring on bill C16 I’m a writer, jail time will yield another great unsold book.

#84 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.29.16 at 10:24 pm

$700 gold here we come!

http://www.businessinsider.com/indias-demonetization-outlook-for-gold-2016-11

#85 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.29.16 at 10:36 pm

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-29/trump-utx-agree-deal-save-1000-jobs-indiana-carrier-plant

Tweeted by David FabERof CNBC

If he keeps this up we’re gonna have 8 years of trump

#86 Bonds Rising on 11.29.16 at 10:42 pm

7% vacancy is telling, with a potential rate rises for mortgage dollars in 2017 & tougher qualifying guidelines this maybe the real property “top” here in the GTA. I’d hate to think of what values may look like in a “normalized” interest rate environment.

#87 RIL on 11.29.16 at 10:44 pm

There would have been no point in my choosing to rent instead of buying real estate in Calgary 26 years ago. Any savings would have been pissed away on guitars, firearms, photography equipment, beer and pizza.

A fun few days now that the Leafs are on their western Canadian swing. Especially Saturday night when Kadri the Rat gets his Vancouver lesson on the Code for his hit on Sedin a few weeks ago. Hope he does not come down with the flu.

#88 Smoking Man on 11.29.16 at 10:46 pm

When you post your book on LinkedIn and everyone at old tax farm thinks Yes, but doesn’t talk to you out of fear of that 7 figure salary getting flushed by supporting it. Knowing the new boss is Fkd in the head.

Don’t worry pals. I’ll be fine. Saw this coming a long time ago. Took care of it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAGnKpE4NCI

Buds on or words. Buds up top. Dyslexic Writers Rock

“Nothing Else Matters”

So close no matter how far
Couldn’t be much more from the heart
Forever trusting who we are
And nothing else matters

Never opened myself this way
Life is ours, we live it our way
All these words I don’t just say
And nothing else matters

Trust I seek and I find in you
Every day for us something new
Open mind for a different view
And nothing else matters

Never cared for what they do
Never cared for what they know
But I know

So close no matter how far
Couldn’t be much more from the heart
Forever trusting who we are
And nothing else matters

Never cared for what they do
Never cared for what they know
But I know

I never opened myself this way
Life is ours, we live it our way
All these words I don’t just say
And nothing else matters

Trust I seek and I find in you
Every day for us something new
Open mind for a different view
And nothing else matters

Never cared for what they say
Never cared for games they play
Never cared for what they do
Never cared for what they know
And I know

So close no matter how far
Couldn’t be much more from the heart
Forever trusting who we are
No nothing else matters

#89 millenial1982 on 11.29.16 at 10:51 pm

#62 Smoking Man on 11.29.16 at 8:47 pm

Downtown booze up tomorrow night.. Who’s in.

Turner nation.. Where to go? It’s been a while.. Where is cool.?

Head up to casino Rama tomorrow. I will buy you a wine, JD and a copy of your book. Would love to meet the smoking man in person!

#90 For those about to flop... on 11.29.16 at 10:51 pm

Does anyone want to be my business partner and get a permit to put a coffee hut where all these dogs poop?

I already got the name nailed down.

Lattes and Fattes..

M42BC

#91 blah..blah...blah on 11.29.16 at 10:54 pm

You people are so stupid.
This is Canada not Germany.
Owning real estate is the only way to go….duh

#92 Trevor on 11.29.16 at 10:54 pm

#75

Yes, some have been known to. I was the privileged owner of a condo in Toronto, very close to the lake, where windows regularly came crashing down onto my balcony from above leaving a mess of safety glass, damage to my railing, and scratches on my windows.

The builder never completely repaired all the damage no matter how much I pushed.

The builder did end up having to replace much of the glass throughout the building.

This was back in 2011 – 2013. I sold the unit earlier this year. Some railing still damaged, scratches still existing on the floor to ceiling windows.

#93 Smoking Man on 11.29.16 at 11:17 pm

To my beautiful fat wife.

I love her with every fault. Is that a crime?

RIP peace my hero.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEVow6kr5nI

#94 Foreign Capital Hits Victoria on 11.29.16 at 11:32 pm

Uh oh VREU, it looks like the ‘scourge of foreign capital’ hitting Victoria that I warned you about many many months ago has materialized.

I told you that foreign capital was creating both a flow of capital to Victoria as well as pushing Vancouver refugees and Vancouver cash-out sellers to Victoria.

You dismissed the impact of foreign buyers – sticking to the realtor claim that 1.6% of buyers were foreign in 2015 (Garth cited this as well http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/06/11/awesome/)

You were told to wait until you see the 2016 numbers to have the ‘scourge of foreign capital’ verified.

Guess what kiddo, the numbers are in: 6.3% of Victoria buyers are now foreign buyers!

http://globalnews.ca/news/3095898/foreign-property-purchases-in-b-c-back-to-average/

That sure is a HUGE leap in the number of buyers and bigger than the “5%” that was touted officially for Vancouver before the foreign buyers tax.

Guess you now know why prices are over 20% in Victoria this year. Think about it – its not like the economy is hot; its not like interest rates have dropped in 2016; its not like there are any plausible drivers to explain why the local population supposedly ‘jumped’ into the market this year after many many years of flat prices and low interest rates.

Told you.

#95 45north on 11.29.16 at 11:32 pm

all this activity will end badly, since without steady, consistent, annual appreciation in condo values, buying one of these units is a financial death trap.

here’s the Condo Game:
http://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2419776936

one of the points: 13:00 “today’s condo towers are not as durable as rental towers built 20 years ago”

this is a political disaster! condos will not increase in value , worse they will decrease and require special assessments. The Condo Game makes the point that the developers are running the downtown core. That is because the Ontario Municipal Board ( OMB ) overrules Toronto City Hall. Up to now, prices are going up and everybody’s happy. Wait until prices drop.

#96 Isolation on 11.29.16 at 11:33 pm

#42 BillyBob on 11.29.16 at 7:40 pm

Oh look the Brit xenophobe is back to lecture us Canadian peasants again. We truly do not deserve your great wisdom.

Comparing opportunities for a Canadian 20 something to their peers in Italy or Greece??

Not only are you a xenophobe, you’re an idiot

FOH

===================================

She did not say the opportunities were better in Italy or Greece than in Canada. She was saying that the Italian and Greek young people were much more mobile and motivated to go where the opportunities are, than Canadian young people.

I would agree. Most Canadians seem very fearful of leaving their socialist paradise, not having a clue there is far more out there and that Canada is a tiny grain of sand on a very large beach. The irony is that Canadians like to smugly style themselves as sophisticated and worldly (particularly compared to their southern neighbours) but from what I’ve seen the minds are pretty narrow north of the 49th.

Perhaps you should work on your own comprehension skills before referring to others as idiots?

++ +

I agree that this person went way over the top in defending Canadians and calling names.

What I have noticed about Canadians, which I would assume is rather common in most large countries, is how regional most people are. People in Saskatoon, Prince George, Ottawa, Halifax, etc., think that where they live is “Canada.” Very few Canadians realize how diverse and huge our country is. Most Canadians I’ve met have done little discovery of their own country.

The people who have traveled around Canada the least tend to be the ones who are deluded into believing that where they are is the worst or the best…with neither extreme being true.

#97 Angela on 11.29.16 at 11:34 pm

Thank you.

#98 Bram2 on 11.29.16 at 11:38 pm

RE https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDAwMkFSTQ==

Just listed again for 2.8m must want money back. good luck with that

#99 Flopper Fan (still) on 11.29.16 at 11:57 pm

#73 RIL on 11.29.16 at 9:33 pm

My Dell Latitude D620 purchased used 4 and 1/2 years ago is seriously ill so I cannot provide links to the articles referenced below.

Run Malwarebytes Anti-malware, free version will do. Your comp probably has lots of crap.

#100 yorkville renter on 11.30.16 at 12:03 am

condo fees + property tax = 47.5% of my rent….
why would I ever buy this unit?

my monthly nut never changes, except the annual rent increase,
which is capped at 1.5% for 2017

#101 macroman on 11.30.16 at 12:07 am

#68 OSO, if you still pay taxes, you ain’t no John Galt.

macroman Shrugs.

Got gold?

#102 InvestorsFriend on 11.30.16 at 12:09 am

Pipelines and Benefit to Alberta

RIL wisely asked:

How does delivering more product to an oversupplied market lead to better prices for Alberta’s bitumen?

*****************************************
Your point is well taken that this will directionally push world crude prices down.

To the extent that Alberta has excess crude that trades at a discount due to lack of export capacity, the pipelines will help. But I agree with Mark’s point that part of the discount is definitely the fact that the Canada Select stuff is lower grade than West Texas Intermediate or Brent Crude.

No matter what happens to oil prices the pipeline construction will boost GDP. And if the oil industry wishes to invest even more then that adds to GDP.

But I also agree with Mark’s point that the industry has over-invested. The $60 billion per year cap ex was WAY too high and unsustainable. THAT is not coming back anytime soon.

So the pipelines may do more to save the existing over-investment in Alberta than to encourage more investment.

#103 BS on 11.30.16 at 12:14 am

#71 betamax on 11.29.16 at 9:29 pm
Gath: “real estate equals dirt”

That’s akin to saying only gold is money. Things are worth what people will pay for them; they don’t require physical presence to have value.

But what will people pay for a 40 year old condo in original condition? Land does not have a limited useful life, go out of style or degrade over time. Buildings do. With time land will increase with inflation where a building will become worthless. Of course if you buy land at an inflated price it will go down medium term and may not recover for decades. For a building it is worse. Not only will it go down medium term but decades later the building will have no value at all. If it does have value it will be due to an equivalent amount put in to maintain and upgrade it. At least with land there is always some hope if you stick with it long enough and if you don’t maintain it there is very little difference.

#104 Ronaldo on 11.30.16 at 12:22 am

#93 Smoking Man on 11.29.16 at 11:17 pm

That was bloody awesome. Sad to see him gone.

#105 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.30.16 at 12:26 am

#164 InvestorsFriend on 11.29.16 at 4:26 pm
No worries about the math error. But the whole calculation is ludicrous. Gold is just one of millions of things priced in dollars.

You should have known there was an error when you value of Gold magically matched M1.

Call me please when dollars are priced in grains of Gold.

That was Garth’s point that you weighted in on. THERE IS NO GOLD STANDARD.

bingo

gold is now lower than it was in 2 years ago.

what a crappy rock

Feb 13th, 2014 8:34 pm$1305 tonight. Would the nay-sayer who was making fun of me at $1230 or so, please step forward and comment on this development?
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/gold-bubble-bursts-1431262/14/#p18357056

#106 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.30.16 at 12:27 am

gold bugs are all short term thinkers. hence the call out on the price of gold after 2 months in 2014. that’s just sad. it’s no wonder people who buy gold lose money.

you can’t change a tiger’s stripes. some people are born to lose.

#107 Freedom First on 11.30.16 at 12:45 am

#65 crossbordershopper

Yes. cbs, your self pity, blame, envy, negativity, etc. will give you health problems. No Choice? bs. life is choices. cbs, you lack reason and accountability.

Myself, for 2 decades my commute to work has been under 5 minutes. The past seven years my commute has been 0 minutes. The maximum commute in my life was 18 minutes. My thinking, more than 1 hour per day is insanity.

Garth does it right. It’s why he teaches people how to think. He cares about people. Even slow learners like me. cbs. listen and learn.

#108 macroman on 11.30.16 at 12:45 am

P.S. Off Shore Observer, if you do have gold, don’t tell your 29 year old GF.

With your flappy fingers, you are a mark. Try not to lose your 3.7 million or your kidney.

#109 Joe2.0 on 11.30.16 at 1:05 am

Ageing demographics a big player today.
Baby boomers time has come.
Sell the house downsize and buy a condo.
Lotsa oldsters a coming.

#110 bdy sktn on 11.30.16 at 1:12 am

Exporting raw oil to Asia, when North American refineries continue to use imported feed in many cases, makes absolutely no sense for Canada.

The other pipelines approved,…are basically no-brainers. They transport oil in support of domestic consumption or export within North America.
………….
Either a flat-out lie , a willful attempt to deceive or stunning ignorance. anyone who has paid even a tiny bit of attention to the Kinder Morgan situation and the fact that it will increase tanker traffic through Vancouver Harbour would see that it is all about increasing the export of raw crude to Asia.
Or maybe the tankers are going to take the crude from Vancouver Harbour to Richmond or maybe Washington.

Mark, why lie so much?
Your oil knowledge is right up there with your math skills.

But you got a computer from the ‘ office so you da man.

#111 Pete on 11.30.16 at 1:43 am

To the guy who said “Dell Latitude D620 purchased used 4 and 1/2 years ago is seriously ill”
——————-
Just install UBUNTU 12 or 14 (Linux) as the operating system and never have another problem.
It has worked great for me for years.

#112 Vin on 11.30.16 at 1:47 am

BCREA predicts price decline of 8.7% in 2017 in BC. If even they reverses prediction – change is near 15% – who knows what is coming!!!!

http://www.theprovince.com/news/local+news/27things+probably+pretty+metro+vancouver+home+sales+prices/12452873/story.html

http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/docs/news-2016/2016-11-29forecast.pdf

#113 Omen on 11.30.16 at 1:55 am

Sign of what is to come.

50% drop in lux real estate in NYC

#114 Omen on 11.30.16 at 1:56 am

http://www.businessinsider.com/luxury-home-price-drop-in-new-york-city-2016-11

#115 Metaxa on 11.30.16 at 2:01 am


#73 RIL on 11.29.16 at 9:33 pm

My Dell Latitude D620 purchased used 4 and 1/2 years ago is seriously ill so I cannot provide links to the articles referenced below.

Run Malwarebytes Anti-malware, free version will do. Your comp probably has lots of crap.

I’ll vouch for this guy and his program…really does a job. Normal users only need the lite version which is download, run, forget about it…no hands on stuff needed. Deep clean, full loofa scrub.

http://paul.is-a-geek.org/aio-srt/

#116 Newcomer on 11.30.16 at 2:14 am

You’d wish it was people without calculators, but that’s not always the case. A friend who is very interested in money and works very hard to get it, told me that in shopping for the condos he bought in Calgary and Vancouver to rent out, he could never find one that would cash flow. But that didn’t stop him. He bought them anyway because he knows that is how people get rich.

#117 BillyBob on 11.30.16 at 2:38 am

#42 BillyBob on 11.29.16 at 7:40 pm

================

Having travelled over Italy it didn’t appear to me that most young people were motivated to relocate for better opportunities. Tons of them seem to loaf around the streets, while middle aged people were working.

I would agree that the welfare state in Canada is bad, but from what I understand from Italians themselves, its even worse over there.

And the standard of living in Canada is higher. All in all, only Northern Europe wins over Canada in dynamism or prosperity, the South and East, not so much.

====================================

I did not say I agreed with the original poster’s comments necessarily, but that they had been totally misread.

My main point was that Canadians should perhaps try to stop nursing their national inferiority complex by always trying to disparage other societies, which invariably they have formed their entire opinion about second or third-hand. I don’t really care if people choose to never experience cultures besides their own, but so many hold mighty strong opinions on things they’ve never seen and places they’ve never been.

“And the standard of living in Canada is higher. ”

Blanket statements like that are quite useless without parameters. Standard of living depends entirely on what your position is on the socio-economic totem pole, just like Canada.

I do know I’ll take Italian women, music, cars, art, clothing, wine, food, and motorcycles over the Canadian versions of those – any time, every time. But to each their own.

#118 jane24 on 11.30.16 at 2:43 am

So son is returning to work another contract in Hanoi, Vietnam. He said to post on here for younger Canadians that the weather is warm, beaches are wonderful, Canadian level wages for qualified Westerners and a very low cost of living. Hearth care exceptional. Wages paid in American dollars too. Big opportunity to save. Sounds like a deal to me and better than Saudi or Northern Canada for getting a house deposit together.
I have been there on holiday and Vietnam is a special place. OK son, job done.

#119 Mark on 11.30.16 at 2:59 am

“$700 gold here we come!
http://www.businessinsider.com/indias-demonetization-outlook-for-gold-2016-11

Hilarious. India attacks the fiat money by arbitrarily cancelling a large number of higher-denomination banknotes, and someone at “businessinsider” deludes that Indians are going to embrace gold less, not more?

On what planet does that author reside?

condo fees + property tax = 47.5% of my rent….
why would I ever buy this unit?

Bizzarre, isn’t it?

Run Malwarebytes Anti-malware, free version will do. Your comp probably has lots of crap.

The issues with a machine of that vintage is usually the lack of RAM (the D620’s top out at 4gb I think, and that’s if one bothered to upgrade from the base configurations which were usually 1-2gb). The hard drive is another big issue. I still have a couple kicking around here (well slightly newer D630’s), but they’ve been upgraded to 4gb, SSD, and Linux.

#120 Tony on 11.30.16 at 3:18 am

Re: #22 ole Doberman on 11.29.16 at 6:53 pm

Real estate in Calgary will go a lot lower probably another 25 to 30 percent lower. Houses will go for about half of what they were going for back in October 2014.

#121 Happening now on 11.30.16 at 3:22 am

Nothing to see here folks…..move along !!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/china-said-to-add-curbs-on-yuan-outflows-outbound-investments

#122 Not so sure #76 Hawk on 11.30.16 at 4:20 am

Dual citizen, retired, living here in Northern Italy (the more “prosperous” part of Italy in terms of GDP or PIL as they call it here).

Yes, very high youth unemployment here (44% vs. only 13% for Canada).

Much of what you say #76 Hawk is true, but below are some VERY LONG WINDED reasons why we tolerate all of the mayhem.

Youth do not move abroad largely because of the Family and the country. They wait for a job opportunity locally and then get the job they want; otherwise, they work at some low skill job (e.g., a hotel in my town of Pordenone had a Ph.D. in Linguistics that spoke 6 languages as Check-In Clerk, my cousins son with a B.Sc. in Economics was pizza delivery boy until he got a job recently after waiting a year or so).

In the meantime, the parents, grandparents take care of the younger generation until they can get their lives going – La Famiglia. It is still indivisible here in Italy.

We do not call them Moisters or Basement Dwellers here in Italy.

Also, it is the Lifestyle here in Italy. I have traveled all of it now, North to South and the Islands, every province.

Canada, in its wildest dreams, cannot begin to match “La Dolce Vita” and “Il Bel far Niente” let alone the history, cuisine and natural beauty that this pint sized country offers (land wise, 3 Italy’s = 1 BC) – it punches far, far above its size.

Why Venice, a city of 70,000 and in my backyard, gets 30 million visitors per year (more than all of Canada put together). Let alone Tuscany, Rome (the latter with its top 10 destinations in the EU and the World) and the list goes on. And please, when you visit Venezia, stop bitching about the canals smelling…they smell because of you tourists all wanting to visit La Serenissima…we are working on it. In the meantime, you clean up your Lake Ontario and English Bay beaches.

We still have an afternoon Siesta while frenetic Toronto and Vancouver are being just that, frenetic. Yes, Monday to Friday we still shut everything down from 1 PM to 3 PM. Il bel far Niente. Drives N. American tourists crazy in their half nude clothing, flip flops plying our neighborhoods for something to do.

Calmi, calmi.

We Italians are also picky about food and culture [and dress I might add]. Every time I travel outside of our borders, save France, I literally starve since the food and espresso are really, that bad and there is not much to see. Of course, we will not tell you and your country that, as it is considered very impolite by us as a guest to say this. But we do talk amongst ourselves when visiting you, wherever “there” is.

Money does not buy happiness, I know in N. America most think it does. I am relatively well off, as are my relatives, but the lifestyle here trumps anything in Canada or what I have seen in the US, well, save NYC.

I will admit though that Italian bureaucracy is maddening at times, but I believe it is Italy’s way of slowing you down to a crawl.

I have always said, take Canadian bureaucracy, add that to Italy and you have heaven. Then again, in Canada you pay thru the nose for that bureaucracy. I pay €90 per year in City Taxes for a 900 sq. ft. marble and wood everywhere top floor condo in downtown Pordenone (a top 10 most livable city in Italy, of course by some dime a dozen eco magazine). Everything works here, almost with German precision and zeal.

Besides, if I want, today for about €550 including all taxes and fees/insurance, I can fly out from Venice to London (and its very bad food and coffee, but nice history) for about 4 days, stay at a 4 Star Hotel right by Trafalgar Square (waving distance to Canada House) and have a great weekend sojourn.

Paris, due to all the troubles there, deeply discounted, the same deal for about €210. Amsterdam at €440. If you want to rough it in a 3 Star hotel for the weekend, then there is Berlin at €161, London at €295 etc.

Where are you going to go for those prices from anywhere in Canada, save NYC?

I am in the cold NE of Italy, brrrr, only 15 deg C today…the leaves have just begun to fall. And save the rainy Wet Coast, the rest of Canada soon will be an ice cube. Enjoy your winter tires and hideously over roasted Starbucks espresso or that swill from Tim’s.

Why the Italian youth tolerate ridiculous high unemployment and a faltering economy. And don’t forget about a €5 Trillion looming bank bailout needed in Italy.

Ciao d’Italia.

bsant

#123 canali on 11.30.16 at 6:04 am

Vacancy rate in some parts of Vancouver is even lower than .07%, I’m now reading. We renters are so fu#ked…esp as more people move here seeking employment…scary times. Renovictions still happening.

#124 dr. talc on 11.30.16 at 7:18 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lYDj0DTxnY#t=13.287125

illegal tender in India

India’s Currency Crisis Explained

#125 Proud Oilbertan on 11.30.16 at 7:27 am

Thank you Justin! Thank you, too, Rachel!

Thanks to these great leaders, Kinder Morgan now has a future, and so does Alberta.

This will revive our economy and our real estate market already shows signs of resurgence. By next spring, it will be boom times again in Calgary and Fort Mac.

Great leaders making the right decisions.

Thank you, Justin!!!!!!

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.30.16 at 8:05 am

@#60 Off shore delusional
“My GF, a nubile 29, loves me–I am 63.’
*******************************************

Bwahahahahahahahahahahha

……and Im sure her love has nothing to do with the 3.7 mil you have squirreled away in your investment account.
If your morning tea tastes a little “off” go get your stomach pumped.

#127 Dominoes Lining Up on 11.30.16 at 8:23 am

In as little as 10 years, possibly 15, up to 7.5 million Canadians will lose their jobs to automation, says this well-documented report.

That’s about 40% of the workforce.

Including doctors, lawyers, engineers, and financial planners (those without blogs and writing skills, of course)

https://www.utoronto.ca/news/millions-canadians-could-lose-jobs-automation-u-t-s-mowat-centre-reports

Anyone paying attention knows how fast this is happening already. Uber. Precarious contracts. Amazon warehouses with robots moving merchandise. Self-driving cars now in full beta testing on Ontario roads.

Ten years is nothing. That’s barely three baths for Smoking Man.

This is like a distant hurricane bearing down from offshore. And Canadians are oblivious, piling debt upon themselves with vastly overpriced homes assuming their jobs will be fine to pay off debt.

As mentioned yesterday, some 61% of all jobs now pay less than the average national wage of $25/hr. This is pathetic, and scary.

Now take away millions of those same jobs over the next decade, take away the ability to pay the mortgages for inflated housing. Will some jobs be replaced? Sure. Will the replacement rate be above 50%? Doubt it.

Love those greater fools. Sell them whatever real estate you can.

Do it now. Quickly.

#128 Context on 11.30.16 at 8:49 am

#73 RIL:- My lady friend in Hot Springs who is the best IT expert in America and a great hacker took care of my system for years. There are two free tools you need for your computer. One is CCleaner and the other is IObit called Advanced System Care.

#129 IHCTD9 on 11.30.16 at 9:00 am

#95 45north on 11.29.16 at 11:32 pm
all this activity will end badly, since without steady, consistent, annual appreciation in condo values, buying one of these units is a financial death trap.

here’s the Condo Game:
http://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2419776936

one of the points: 13:00 “today’s condo towers are not as durable as rental towers built 20 years ago”

this is a political disaster! condos will not increase in value , worse they will decrease and require special assessments. The Condo Game makes the point that the developers are running the downtown core. That is because the Ontario Municipal Board ( OMB ) overrules Toronto City Hall. Up to now, prices are going up and everybody’s happy. Wait until prices drop.
___________________

Let ’em burn. How do dogs learn to leave porcupines and skunks alone? How do birds learn not to eat monarch caterpillars? How does our family cat learn to stay the hell out of my bowl of Zesty Doritos?

100% pure natural learning, “Once bitten, twice shy”.

So I’ll quote one of Floppers countrymen:

“There ain’t no way, but the hard way (so get used to it)”

– Joel O’Keeffe

#130 yup on 11.30.16 at 9:02 am

Vacancy rate in some parts of Vancouver is even lower than .07%, I’m now reading. We renters are so fu#ked…esp as more people move here seeking employment…scary times. Renovictions still happening

always two sides to a story. Affordable housing deosnt exist in Vancouver. They rent by default . …..renters sweat too? you knew :)

#131 Herb on 11.30.16 at 9:06 am

#5 Mark,

thank you for the “Global Trumpism” link. It explains a lot of what is going on. It also provides a degree of verifiability, with Blyth’s predictions facing outcomes in the immediate future.

#132 Context on 11.30.16 at 9:19 am

The Toronto Stock Exchange is going to roar today so get ready for the pop.

#133 James on 11.30.16 at 9:20 am

#92 Trevor on 11.29.16 at 10:54 pm

#75
Yes, some have been known to. I was the privileged owner of a condo in Toronto, very close to the lake, where windows regularly came crashing down onto my balcony from above leaving a mess of safety glass, damage to my railing, and scratches on my windows.

The builder never completely repaired all the damage no matter how much I pushed.

The builder did end up having to replace much of the glass throughout the building.

This was back in 2011 – 2013. I sold the unit earlier this year. Some railing still damaged, scratches still existing on the floor to ceiling windows.
………………………………………………………………..
My brother in law lived in the west side of downtown near Liberty Village. He bought a condo ten years ago. One of those shiny glass ceiling to floor chrome fancy open concept hip places. Same problems as you stated, it became a full time job to get shit done. Then he wanted to do a little renovation and the Condo Nazi Board turned him down. He did it anyway, they threatened him with legal action, ha, ha, ha little did they know he was a lawyer. My sister said after the last window literally blew in as opposed to out that was it for her. They sold it with a little profit. One year after that their neighbours said the condo fees went up 55%. No recourse at all, people started bailing but hard to sell when your fees are now more than the mortgage. They now rent a town-home near The Queensway and Windermer. So his commute is a little longer via streetcar big deal. He said he doesn’t own it and is investing in a nice diversified portfolio. Misses the view but he said the view from his bank statements look great.

#134 traderJim on 11.30.16 at 9:22 am

You would think renting in Vancouver would be really difficult, but a friend of mine has a decent , older, 2 bedroom in Kits that he pays $1,200/mth for.

Anecdotal, but he had no trouble finding it.

That would be about equal to the maintenance fees and a small part of the mortgage interest.

I pay more than that for equivalent rentals in Colombia, Peru or Argentina, not exactly expensive places.

#135 traderJim on 11.30.16 at 9:31 am

#122 bsant

On my first trip to Tuscany I was at a nice restaurant and the waiter asked what wine I would like to order.

I said ‘well, we’re in Italy, we should have an Italian wine’.

The waiter replied, quite seriously, ‘We are not in Italy, we are in Tuscany’.

I absolutely loved Northern Italy, the food, the culture, the cost of living, architecture,design, fashion etc etc

Visiting the South is not high on my list of priorities though. But I will go as far as Rome one day.

#136 traderJim on 11.30.16 at 9:46 am

#65 cross border shopping

Says people are so poor they buy dog food to eat.

I have empathy for poor people, but when they are too stupid to buy canned tuna, soup or salmon (or any other canned food) at a lower price than dog food, well, not much you can do for those folks.

Of course, reality is, that’s BS. No one is eating dog food. Just another lefty lie.

Here in Colombia people do go through the garbage looking for food and recyclables. I happily give them money, knowing their situation is not at all their fault.

They are not drug addicts or mentally ill. More likely farmers who were driven off their land by Marxist FARC guerrillas.

So they get my charity. 100% to the person who needs it. Not like North American scam charities that skim off 85% and pay themselves exorbitant salaries and expenses.

#137 Calgary Guy on 11.30.16 at 9:48 am

Good stuff Garth. Enjoy your analysis and love your occasional creative descriptions such as “fertilizing Argentina”.

Blog dogs, if you think “it can’t happen in my backyard” or “it’s different here” then look no further than the epicentre of real estate madness – Manhattan. Prices ALWAYS go up in Manhattan, right? RIGHT?

In March of this year an article was published predicting the Manhattan market was about to take a nosedive:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/28/this-real-estate-market-is-about-to-crash-commentary.html

Then in July another article about the cooling down of the Manhattan market:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/01/realestate/drop-in-manhattan-home-sales-indicates-a-market-cool-down.html

And finally yesterday an article about the fastest market adjustment EVER in the manhattan market:

http://www.businessinsider.com/luxury-home-price-drop-in-new-york-city-2016-11

Granted the last article focuses mainly on the luxury segment, but read the details and you’ll see an example of a entry-level-unit 1-bed 1-bath that was listed for $500k which has now dropped to $300k. Ouch.

These articles give an nice synopsis of the economic fundamentals that move prices. Supply and demand, reversion to mean, income levels, affordability, etc. Things are irrational only for a certain period of time and then emotions finally give way to logic.

#138 Robert on 11.30.16 at 10:00 am

Dear Garth,

Would you please explain exactly how you arise at 1200 savings/month?

Sure 80% financing at current rates plus opportunity cost of downpayment. Condo fees and taxes are high in that area. Far cheaper to rent. — Garth

#139 Brokerizer on 11.30.16 at 10:15 am

How about “Why I sold my shares”?

@AsennaWealth on Twitter:

“Wife: Why did you sell your shares in 2009?
Husband: I follow ZH.”

#140 Prairieboy43 on 11.30.16 at 10:23 am

This is where money, (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-11/the-adult-diaper-market-is-about-to-take-off ),will be made. With BB, not capitalizing on the real estate market. Many Boomers will be pooched. Possibly Exponential growth. Then there will be recycling of these products.
PB43

#141 Free Bandit Liberation Army on 11.30.16 at 10:24 am

When I’m downtown on business for a few days a week, I walk Bandit in the only sizeable park for blocks, surrounding Toronto’s oldest cathedral.”

Garth, I love dogs too, but you shouldn’t keep a dog in a condo….they need space and yards to run around in!

Not 10-year-old Chows who think serious exercise is getting up to eat. He actually loves the urban environment. Now bug off. — Garth

#142 McLovin on 11.30.16 at 10:25 am

If one is really determined to be a ‘landlord’, why put up with tenants that may destroy your place by keeping livestock inside, or just not pay the rent, leaving you screwed. It’s easy to mitigate the risk…buy a quality REIT fund and reap the 5 or 6 per cent payout. Sure it’ll fluctuate in value, but less so that residential real estate…and no one will foreclose on your REIT or force you into bankruptcy because of it.

#143 Who luvs ya baby on 11.30.16 at 10:28 am

#122 Not so sure #76 Hawk on 11.30.16 at 4:20 am

Dual citizen, retired, living here in Northern Italy (the more “prosperous” part of Italy in terms of GDP or PIL as they call it here).

Yes, very high youth unemployment here (44% vs. only 13% for Canada).

Much of what you say #76 Hawk is true, but below are some VERY LONG WINDED reasons why we tolerate all of the mayhem.
—–

Is this you!??

One of Italy’s most celebrated playboys has been arrested in New York after allegedly faking his own kidnapping following a two-day drugs and alcohol bender with an escort.

Lapo Elkann, an heir to Italy’s Fiat empire, is suspected of faking the kidnap to squeeze money out of his family after he ran out of cash to buy drugs.

The 39-year-old grandson of Gianni Agnelli, the celebrated patriarch of one of Italy’s richest families, was charged with falsely reporting an incident.
A New York police spokesman said Elkann had been released and the case would be dealt with in court.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/world/fiat-heir-fakes-own-kidnapping-collects-10000-ransom-from-family-buys-more-drugs-from-escort

#144 lentyul on 11.30.16 at 10:35 am

#44 NorthOf49 on 11.29.16 at 7:45 pm
#14 Londoner on 11.29.16 at 6:42 pm

Renting over the past 8 years has worked for us. We’re both professionals, we have 4 kids between the two of us. Here in Ancaster, outside Hamilton, …”

That sounds like Brady Bunch-lite….I think they even owned their home!

#145 little vacancy rates in vcr? on 11.30.16 at 10:36 am

sure, people can’t afford housing there. Same as Toronto.

an owner’s rental paradise….thankfully.

#146 lentyul on 11.30.16 at 10:46 am

#118 jane24 on 11.30.16 at 2:43 am
So son is returning to work another contract in Hanoi, Vietnam. He said to post on here for younger Canadians that the weather is warm, beaches are wonderful, …”

Hanoi has a beach now….that is news to me! What once used to be a beautiful quaint town, is now a giant traffic snarled mess…..and the weather is some of the worst on the planet….hot and very humid 3 months, cold and humid 3 months, and occasional typhoons ripping through….nice people though!

#147 jess on 11.30.16 at 10:54 am

fake ads fake news …

“More troubling still, PropOrNot listed numerous organizations on its website as “allied” with it, yet many of these claimed “allies” told The Intercept, and complained on social media, they have nothing to do with the group and had never even heard of it before the Post published its story…”

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/washington-post-blacklist-story-is-shameful-disgusting-w452543

Washington Post Disgracefully Promotes a McCarthyite Blacklist From a New, Hidden, and Very Shady Group
Ben Norton, Glenn Greenwald

https://theintercept.com/2016/11/26/washington-post-disgracefully-promotes-a-mccarthyite-blacklist-from-a-new-hidden-and-very-shady-group/

http://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/the-post-truth-era

#148 Renter's Revenge! on 11.30.16 at 11:01 am

To #122:

Dolce post! Thank you for the lesson in “Il Bel far Niente”. I’ve never heard that expression before. I’m adding it to my mental toolbox. You have improved someone’s life today.

#149 For those about to flop... on 11.30.16 at 11:02 am

While it seems likely that the Fed in St Louis will pull the trigger on interest rates in a couple of weeks, apparently a couple of members on the board said they will only agree to an increase if local authorities give permission to finish the other half of the giant McDonalds logo that they have to look at out their office window…

M42BC

#150 Bram on 11.30.16 at 11:04 am

#98
Just listed again for 2.8m must want money back. good luck with that

Where did you see it listed?
It has a sign, but is not on realtor.ca nor on site of selling realtor? It is almost like a ghost sale.

#151 Context on 11.30.16 at 11:05 am

#130 yup:- Apartments in Vancouver are not expensive so go to CAPREIT, as they have nice buildings and today have 32 apartments for rent in various parts of the city.

#152 jess on 11.30.16 at 11:12 am

#127 Dominoes Lining Up on 11.30.16 at 8:23 am

online sellers not charging the VAT …no enforcement
mr. amazon says i’m not a tax collector

…” Lippmann and Bernays argued that modern life had become too complicated for ordinary people to understand; that citizens needed to have their information screened, interpreted, and presented by experts, such as members of the media. Bernays in his 1928 book Propaganda tried to rehabilitate the term…”

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/11/were-under-attack.html

===============

#153 Damifino on 11.30.16 at 11:14 am

#125 Proud Oilbertan

“Thank you Justin! Thank you, too, Rachel!”
———————————-

Thank you Justin for doing something in which you had absolutely no choice. El Comandante would have loved what you’ve done for education and health in Alberta.

Oh yeah, there’s a message… Some guy named Suzuki is waiting for you down in the lobby.

#154 Doug in London on 11.30.16 at 11:22 am

@McLovin, post #142:
I couldn’t agree more. While I sit on my big fat bottom, my XRE pays 5.4% at today’s price. My CAR.UN pays about 4%, but actually more than that because I bought it on sale. Sure beats the hassle of owning a grossly overpriced and probably poorly built condo.

#155 Rifles on 11.30.16 at 11:34 am

Interesting impact assessment of the BC tax on foreign buying over at Steve Saretsky’s blog, http://vancitycondoguide.com/the-purge/

Contrary to the “minimal foreign influence” meme popularised here, Saretsky claims that, pre BC tax, “foreign buyers accounted for 13.2% of sales across Metro Vancouver, 24% in Burnaby, and a staggering 25% in Richmond.”

Things have changed: “Since the tax, foreign buyers now make up just 3% of total transactions across Metro Vancouver, 5.9% in Burnaby, and 6.7% in Richmond.”

In fairness overseas purchases are now closer to CMHC’s 3/100 Garth prefers. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day!

#156 traderJim on 11.30.16 at 11:44 am

Oil up 8% today.

Loonie is up…………. 0%

#157 TurnerNation on 11.30.16 at 11:47 am

Smoking man tonight I’m going to MacAllan scotch tasting at King Edward hotel at 6. Try sneaking in…
There’s always the Strathcona hotel lol.

I hang on King W.

#158 Mixed Bag on 11.30.16 at 11:53 am

#122

“hideously over roasted Starbucks espresso”

Yes!

“We do not call them Moisters or Basement Dwellers here in Italy”

Rather funny, as they’d be pretty moist in a Venice basement. ;)

#159 Context on 11.30.16 at 11:56 am

#142 McLovin:- Can a tenant destroy an apartment? A friend of mine rented out an apartment to a young married couple. The wife was a bit twisted and bent as she painted each room with a different colour, but it had to be washable for her flower etchings. She used a pole roller and purchased gallons of paint from parts unknown, as this paint was a standard item for car body repair shops.

#160 Ace Goodheart on 11.30.16 at 12:11 pm

RE: #16 RentYVR:

“Here in lala land we have what’s called “laneway houses” springing up everywhere. Most people I know who bought a house in the last 5ish years have built one (and rented out their basements/attics) to help them pay for their $1m east van crack shacks. Crazy.”

You guys are lucky. In Toronto they fight you relentlessly if you even think about trying to build a house in a laneway. I have two very nice plots of land, very useless in general, attached to rental buildings and fronting onto laneways. If I could sever these things and sell them for new construction, likely that would be the end of my working days (they are probably worth about 500K each as individual plots of land, however worth nothing when attached to a rental building).

I always watch the news regarding Toronto laneway housing with much interest. I guess sooner or later there will be a breakthrough and these little useless land plots will start getting severed and sold off. Then you will have a new class of “Toronto laneway housing millionaires” who have owned these useless little land plots for years and suddenly can sever them and sell them individually.

One of the ones I own is about as large as the footprint on a number of new condo buildings being built in innfil lots on Queen Street.

How about laneway condos?

#161 Ogopogo on 11.30.16 at 12:31 pm

I’m a proud, happy and wealthy renter whose rent gets cheaper every year by virtue of annual salary raises and a growing portfolio.

The pathetic herd of anti-renters that trolls the comments keeps hoping people like me will wail in agony at having “missed the boat” when in fact we’re sailing in a yacht subsidized by hapless landlords (Peace Be Upon Them).

Priceless.

#162 Bark on 11.30.16 at 12:54 pm

The CBC’s frontpage currently has a story of tenants living with farm animals inside their house. It took the poor sob landlord 7 months to evict tenants that were treating his house like a barn. Could you imagine if he was also subsidizing their rent by renting at a monthly loss?

#163 triplenet on 11.30.16 at 12:56 pm

Housing analyst Ross Kay tells me $191 billion in real estate equity has been lost in BC in the past five months, as sales and prices diminish. Meanwhile the nation’s lowest vacancy rates are in Vancouver and the Lower Mainland.

Not sure it’s wise to analyse phantom profit (or loss). Literally….there’s no money in it.
Vancouver residential vacancy rates are near zero percent….. and have been below 4% for quite some time. That means it’s difficult to find accomodation that you like/need/want. Now it’s worse.
Your real estate advisor is regurgitating nominal value information.

Vancouver real estate values and activity were/are affected by an inverted market.
Figure it out.

#164 Context on 11.30.16 at 12:56 pm

#160 Ace Goodheart:- This form of laneway housing already exists in Toronto but with a clever twist. The ownerships have created private streets. Read the guide to 10 private streets in Toronto as this has been going on for years.

#165 Karl hungus on 11.30.16 at 1:06 pm

you are mistaken Garth. Things are worse in Calgary compared to Edmonton

#166 Victoria Real Estate Uppa on 11.30.16 at 1:22 pm

Chinese tsunami of cash sweeps over the sleepy capital…

(cbc)
The rising number of foreign buyers snapping up properties in the Victoria area is sparking debate about bringing Metro Vancouver’s 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers to the capital region as well.

About 6.3 per cent of transactions in the Capital Regional District between June 10 and Oct. 31 involved foreign purchasers, according to the latest figures released by the province yesterday.

That’s up from about 3.5 per cent since the last report in September.

The Victoria area is now only second to Richmond, where 6.2 per cent of transactions involved foreign buyers. It’s also seeing higher foreign investment than Vancouver, which came in at 2.5 per cent.
—————
VREU you have wasted the last 3 years of your life here giving dangerous , expensive advice ;)

#167 Foreign Capital Hits Victoria on 11.30.16 at 1:29 pm

Garth,

I think that you should do a story on massive spike in foreign buyers in Victoria. A year ago, you frequently pointed out that they only constituted 1.6% and then extrapolated that likely number to Vancouver before the provincial government released their numbers. That was done to show the negligible impact of foreign buyers on the market.

The numbers now tell a much different story as there has been a massive bump in the % of foreign buyers – from 1.6% to 6.4%. This is much larger than the 5% in Vancouver that was bandied around for years as the likely percentage of buyers. Of course this summer, we all ‘officially’ found out it was a much larger number.

Victoria’s prices have miraculously gone up 24% in one year. The market here has been flat for years despite declining interest rates; the average family income is even lower than Vancouver’s, which is one of the lowest in Canada; and there is no new economic driver in a traditional government sector and resource sector town, both of which have been frozen or declining. There is a much announced growth in the tech sector but that has yet to be seen concretely.

So is it realistic to assume that after more than a half decade of flat prices in a stagnant economy that prices are actually rising because of FOMO or foreign capital or both?

I have a sneaking suspicion that we will see more posts in a year from now about the ‘out of nowhere’ growth in foreign buyers in Victoria. Remember, the provincial government can apply the BC foreign buyers tax wherever it wants and it is watching the capital regional district closely….

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/foreign-buyers-double-in-month-in-victoria-area-housing-market-1.3426754#sthash.R8aJho7u.dpuf

http://globalnews.ca/news/3095898/foreign-property-purchases-in-b-c-back-to-average/

#168 bdwy sktrn on 11.30.16 at 1:35 pm

How about laneway condos?
—————-
yeah, those went in about 10 yrs ago off commercial drive.

land does not get severed in most all cases as far as i know.

i believe the paperwork from the city to get started building in your backyard is about 75k. (that’s why they like it!)

a plan for your land ….

quickly build a large open carport (no permits, bribe neighbours if necesscary)
after 6-12 months close it in to a large garage when nobody is looking.

rent out large garage for 500/mo.

#169 Context on 11.30.16 at 1:35 pm

One of the nicest condo lane type of developments is in a cool location beside the subway which I would buy if the price was right and its called Annex Lane.

#170 IHCTD9 on 11.30.16 at 1:40 pm

#69 Reply to #3 on 11.29.16 at 9:27 pm
#3

Respect is key here. Don’t call someone an idiot for suggesting that there are greener pastures outside of the SJW hellhole Greater Toronto metropolis…

…One less penny in Toronto is better for all of us.

____________________________________________

FWIW box in the sky guy is a troll.

As for the rest of your post, Dual Citizenship sure is a lifeline when looking at Trudeau’s future Canada (broke with no jobs and huge taxation). Wish I had it.

Some of us can’t really pick up and leave, and I am one of those. I will however – enjoy paying less and less taxes and fees every year anyway. Many are the options, feeble is the oversight.

Earlier this year, I decided that every time our governments made my life more expensive, I would estimate the increase, and offset it thru changes in my spending and habits. So far, I am ahead of the game.

Some examples are:

1. In Ontario, License plate stickers went to 128.00/ea this year. I offset that by taking my toy (3rd) vehicle off the road, not buying the sticker, not paying the insurance, not paying the gas, not paying the oil changes, not paying the maintenance and selling it for a 1500.00 capital gain and not paying taxes on that either. Then I put the entire proceeds into my RRSP where it will generate roughly 1000.00 worth of income taxes returned to me.

2. Liquidating stuff I don’t need anymore due to change of plans on Kijiji cash money no income taxes.

3. Displacing 25-50% of my home heating bill by burning scrap wood in a home built outdoor wood boiler. No taxes paid on the scrap wood fuel supplement, no taxes paid on the regular fuel I didn’t buy.

4. Rebuilt front deck, all lumber bought from Native Reserve – no tax. Didn’t get a permit either.

5. Two times I needed machine work done this year on bulldozer parts – I bartered with one of the guys – no taxes paid on either side of the deal.

There are many more examples and options with varying degrees of legality. I will probably explore them all in time the way Trudeau is going. This option is more fun, and more effective than voting – I encourage all folks who are planning to stick it out here in the Northern Trudeau crater to do the same.

#171 Ronaldo on 11.30.16 at 2:09 pm

#150 Bram on 11.30.16 at 11:04 am

#98
Just listed again for 2.8m must want money back. good luck with that

Where did you see it listed?
It has a sign, but is not on realtor.ca nor on site of selling realtor? It is almost like a ghost sale.
————————————————————-
Here is a listing for it

http://www.40listings.com/REBGV/R2125812/170-e-48th-avenue-vancouver-east-main-v5w2c8

Interesting that the asking prices on this and many other listings today are basically 1 million over the last assessment whether the house has been torn down and rebuilt or one that has had no renos done to it (basically a teardown). This seems to be the case in the Mt. Pleasant area of Vancouver where there are extremely few listings and realtors are sitting tight on prices till they capture a greater fool. And there are still some lurking about it seems. There are going to be some very sorry soles in the next few months when they discover they’ve been had.

#172 ronh on 11.30.16 at 2:12 pm

When a goldbug says the FED will raise, pay attention.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/10-year-us-treasury-yield-will-break-out-35-year-range-yearend-2016-part-1

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/10-year-us-treasury-yield-will-break-out-35-year-range-yearend-2016-part-2

#173 For those about to flop... on 11.30.16 at 2:16 pm

Hey bsant ,that’s a pretty cool photo of you on the way to the train station.

You’re younger than I’d thought you’d be…

M42BC

http://imgur.com/a/4JxE1

#174 eddy on 11.30.16 at 2:16 pm

#158 Mixed Bag on 11.30.16 at 11:53 am
#122

“hideously over roasted Starbucks espresso”

—-

here’s what you get in in Europe- the cheapest beans

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robusta_coffee

if it doesnt say Arabica, Columbia etc. its robusta
And it’s the Europeans who over roast- to kill the taste of cheap beans

#175 pBrasseur on 11.30.16 at 2:26 pm

Oil is up 10% today on OPEC

Is it just me who finds that ridiculous?

Anybody seriously believe that this is not just pure speculation? That supply will not still be plentiful, wherever it comes from?

#176 InvestorsFriend on 11.30.16 at 2:29 pm

Wealth Gained and Lost is not Phantom

#163 triplenet on 11.30.16 at 12:56 pm said:

Housing analyst Ross Kay tells me $191 billion in real estate equity has been lost in BC in the past five months, as sales and prices diminish.

Not sure it’s wise to analyse phantom profit (or loss). Literally….there’s no money in it.

*****************************************
Gains in wealth are not phantom simply because they are unrealised. If such were the case then most of the world’s richest people including Warren Buffett and Sam Walton’s heirs would have only phantom wealth.

Technically, it is correct that unrealised wealth and capital gains are not “money”. Wealth represented by houses, apartments and stocks is not money as such but it is wealth and is MEASURED in money.

The gains in wealth are VERY real as are the losses.

A “paper loss” is a simply a loss. Calling it “paper” is redundant.

When we say that we “made money” due to a capital gain we mean that our wealth as measured in money has increased. The fact that such wealth has not been converted into actual “money” does not change the fact that a gain or loss has been made.

#177 InvestorsFriend on 11.30.16 at 2:33 pm

The Alberta Recession is Over

#165 Karl hungus on 11.30.16 at 1:06 pm said:

Things are worse in Calgary compared to Edmonton

***************************************
I believe that is true.

Also yesterday’s pipeline announcement combined with OPECs move today means that the recession in Alberta has bottomed. Alberta is on the way up now in terms of GDP. Bank on it.

As for housing prices, they may not have bottomed yet but likely soon will.

#178 Patricia Mills on 11.30.16 at 2:59 pm

The West Coast is on one of the largest fault liens in the world. The San Andreas Fault Line. So why isn’t anymore talking about the big earthquake we are told to expect soon when talking about the pipelines. Who will clean up the kind of mess that an earthquake will bring when the earth gyrates the pipelines and twists them open to spill a million tons of oil into Vancouvers’ Harbour??? Just a thought.

#179 Old Bird on 11.30.16 at 3:04 pm

Garth re #52 Yanniel on 11.27.16 at 9:56 pm

Respectfully, I would also appreciate some further education from Ryan regarding Yanniel’s question on Real Return Bonds from last weekend.

Perhaps there was some input but I haven’t been able to find any.

Thank you

#180 maxx on 11.30.16 at 3:15 pm

#3 A box in the Sky on 11.29.16 at 6:23 pm

“#75 jane24 on 11.28.16 at 12:47 am
I used to live in Cambridge, Ontario. Lovely place to bring up a family but well into the snow belt and a LONG way from a Toronto job. Not so bad if you work in Mississauga though. The 401 traffic was hell in 1992 when I left, I assume that it is much worse now. Does work for a Kit-Waterloo job though as you can take the back roads, which is where I worked.

I still can’t get over why when there is such a wonderful world out there, young people want to live in Canada and go through this daily commute hell for such little money and such a high cost of living. They trudge through the snow for basically nothing. In any other Western country, young folk would get out and find better options. Even the Greek and Italian youngsters move faster than the Canadian ones.

———————————————

Oh look the Brit xenophobe is back to lecture us Canadian peasants again. We truly do not deserve your great wisdom.

Comparing opportunities for a Canadian 20 something to their peers in Italy or Greece??

Not only are you a xenophobe, you’re an idiot”

As it happens, 24 defines the top end of the IQ level of an idiot. 1 more point and you graduate to imbecile, but hey, who knows? Maybe on a good day……..one of those very rare ones in its neck of the woods not spent trudging through yet another miserable, interminably piddling, gray day- the sort that is totally indistinguishable from the one before and after it.

Give me snow any day. The flakes just fall off.

#181 maxx on 11.30.16 at 3:21 pm

#6 Doug t on 11.29.16 at 6:35 pm

“I have friends who think they are financial wizards cause their calculator tells them how smart they were to buy a place and rent it out – a calculator is only as smart as the person entering the numbers”

Yes indeed, garbage in, garbage out.

#182 Hey oglpoppo on 11.30.16 at 3:34 pm

You sound angry ………many of us heavy in real estate are doing very well . Thanks for the rent

#183 The Technical Analyst on 11.30.16 at 3:38 pm

“Landlords are throwing in free months of rent, paying moving expenses or….Not just Calgary, either.”

Here in Waterloo, landlords are doing, if you can believe it, THREE MONTHS free rent on a 12mo term. That’s 1 month more than in Calgary they offered us.

#184 Alex on 11.30.16 at 3:48 pm

“As an owner I’d be down over $1200 more than my rent. Ouch! I’ll let the landlord take the hit”

Landlords not taking the hit cuz he has some super smart guy paying his mortgage. You don’t know how much he paid for the place and therefore what his payments are. Furthermore you really have know idea what the place will be worth 10-15 years down the road when you’ve paid it off for him. It just mind numbing that people think they can predict future prices in housing or stocks or widgets or…..

#185 Bram on 11.30.16 at 3:49 pm

#160 Ace Goodheart on 11.30.16 at 12:11 pm
have owned these useless little land plots for years and suddenly can sever them and sell them individually.

It’s not quite how laneways work in Vancouver.
If you can get a laneway permit, you can build one, and rent it out.
But you cannot sell a laneway. It will always be a single property with a single title for house+laneway.

The city of Vancouver is super uptight about everything though.
They wouldn’t even let me keep a kitchen in had installed in my empty basement (for personal use.)
They wouldn’t give me a suite permit, and I had to remove that kitchen again.

I don’t think YVR is any better than Toronto.
The hypocrites say they want affordable housing, but won’t give me a basement permit? (walkway at sides of house 1ft too narrow, yet it has full front and back access.)

#186 Dave on 11.30.16 at 3:56 pm

My fav quote:
Good for you. And who’s buying?

The speckers. The flippers. The wannabe landlords. Firsters. People without calculators.

“People without calculators.”

But real estate is an investment that always goes up over time. I wonder who’s the first person who spoke that lie?

#187 Alex on 11.30.16 at 3:56 pm

Now this is a better reason to rent.

http://www.mrfreeat33.com/its-not-about-the-money-rent-versus-buy/

#188 Polls R Phake on 11.30.16 at 4:06 pm

Still well over a million dollars for a POS house in Vancouver. Nothing changes until that number is under.

#189 Alex on 11.30.16 at 4:17 pm

I’m sorry but this is just a poorly written article. Your point about “recency bias” is hypocritical. Isnt you’re point about oil prices and the housing downturn in Alberta as a reason for renting a case of recency bias. You don’t know where oil prices are going. Oil prices could go up, oil sands could start booming again and rents in Alberta could go up. Garth do you have crystal ball?

#190 cramar on 11.30.16 at 4:26 pm

I don’t get it. With high-rise condos popping up like dandelions everywhere in downtown Hogtown, how can the infrastructure support this? Water, electricity, sewage systems, etc. There must be ten times, or maybe a hundred times, the demand for water than was provided for initially. So how can a vast number of condos be accommodated anyway? Puzzle to me!

#191 RentYVR on 11.30.16 at 4:44 pm

@42 Sby,

I’ve seen that sale but it looks very suspicious to me. The prices right now are flat to declining but they’re not down that much. Yet. The real action will probably start in the Spring.

#192 45north on 11.30.16 at 4:46 pm

Bark: The CBC’s frontpage currently has a story of tenants living with farm animals inside their house.

here’s the story:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/landlord-tenant-board-rent-goat-kingston-1.3872415

The law did not protect me in any way whatsoever,” said Andrew. “The law took its time and let everything play out, and I had my hands tied, so the law has to make exceptions for people who wilfully destroy property.”

the law is the Ontario Residential Tenancy Act:

http://www.mah.gov.on.ca/page137.aspx

which needs to be changed to protect the landlord

#193 mark on 11.30.16 at 4:58 pm

#131 No probs, Herb. Thought it was a great explanation.

#194 Victor V on 11.30.16 at 5:17 pm

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/td-hikes-mortgage-rates-for-rental-properties-and-lengthy-loans/article33108192/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&service=mobile

Two weeks after announcing small hikes for mortgage rates, Toronto-Dominion is raising them again — and this time the lender is going much farther.

Starting December 1, all fixed rate mortgages that take more than 25 years to pay back will cost borrowers an extra 10 basis points, or 0.1 per cent. TD is also implementing an extra cost for mortgages on rental properties, charging borrowers 25 basis points more.

More to come. — Garth

#195 Smoking Man on 11.30.16 at 5:34 pm

#156 traderJim on 11.30.16 at 11:44 am
Oil up 8% today.

Loonie is up…………. 0%
…..

Market pricing on a BOC rate cut, and a FED spike.

#196 Smoking Man on 11.30.16 at 5:36 pm

#157 TurnerNation on 11.30.16 at 11:47 am
Smoking man tonight I’m going to MacAllan scotch tasting at King Edward hotel at 6. Try sneaking in…
There’s always the Strathcona hotel lol.

I hang on King W.

Had to bail.. Try again tommorow night.

#197 David Prokop on 11.30.16 at 5:47 pm

#44 NorthOf49
“Renting over the past 8 years has worked for us”

What a nonsense, if you bought anything 8 years ago you would be sitting on huge equity right now. You missed it, these are pretty lame excuses . I’m not saying buying now is a good idea, but c’mon… some houses have tripled in 8 years (like mine)

#198 Ronaldo on 11.30.16 at 6:43 pm

#176 InvestorsFriend on 11.30.16 at 2:29 pm

”The fact that such wealth has not been converted into actual “money” does not change the fact that a gain or loss has been made.”
———————————————–
If I may ask, what is your definition of ‘money’? I’m not talking about the currency we use in our day to day transactions.

#199 traderJim on 11.30.16 at 7:06 pm

#195 Smoking Man

Yup, I am short the loonie based on int rate differentials, plus Trump.

Loonie follows oil SOMETIMES, but not always.

Oil will have short term rallies, I don’t think any will stick, until President the Donald really gets the USA humming again.

#200 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.30.16 at 7:31 pm

@#197 David Proktological

“some houses have tripled in 8 years (like mine)”

********************************************
So you’ve sold right?

Cause houses are ONLY WORTH what you SELL them for…..NOT what the current market is paying……
Nah.
Hold yer house for another 8 years then sell.

#201 Wack on 11.30.16 at 7:37 pm

I agree with Alex 184. I’m not a big time slum lord, just own a modest rental home bought 5yrs ago. Rent covers mortgage, taxes, maintenance on the old house. Not going to get rich off it, but one day the old house will be done/ torn down, big city lot subdivided into 2 lots which can be cashed in nicely. Oh, and it’s in a business holding co. Real estate is only one of many places one can place his money, if you do it buy dirt, old house with a big lot!

#202 Braj on 11.30.16 at 8:26 pm

#78 Smoking Man on 11.29.16 at 9:57 pm
I feel fricken exhausted. Is it just me?

I keep lying to myself why I’m so burnt out.

It can’t be the 3 trips to Seneca a week, two packs of smokes a day, chased down with an assortment of wine and the hard stuff. Mabey I should slow down a bit, recharge the batteries so to speak. I might.

The utter disappointment of very limited sales of a thing I put my heart and soul into for over six years.

I knew I wouldn’t be a best seller but I thought I would have at least hundred souls laughing at all my pokes at life. Not even close to that number.

The only thing that is energizing me slightly is thought of doing a sequel. The emails and positive reviews are encouraging. You dogs got to write the reviews where you got the book.

I’m thankful I don’t make a living doing this shit. I could not even survive as a homeless bugger.

At any rate, I thank the dogs that took the time to read it. I’m working on the sequel for 51 loyal dogs. We all need a purpose.

—–
A week or two ago it was half that amount. People are reading it, itll be a hundred soon.

Send over a copy and I’ll read it. Don’t feel so bad about something you put your soul into, was that not it’s own reward?

#203 Ace Goodheart on 11.30.16 at 10:40 pm

#185 Bram:

Sounds similar to here in Toronto. Need to hire a lawyer if a tree dies on your property and you want to cut it down.

Need a permit to change a light switch.

Yay City life.

I was just thinking “you guys get to build houses in your laneways?” Now I get it…..

#204 Vancouver on 12.01.16 at 1:57 am

http://www.businessinsider.com/canadas-housing-boom-and-bust-2016-11

#205 Victor V on 12.01.16 at 7:20 am

Toronto technology entrepreneur’s New Brunswick mansion still up for sale; Realtor says Lorne Abony’s $9.64 million dollar house may take six years or more to sell.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/11/30/toronto-technology-entrepreneurs-new-brunswick-mansion-still-up-for-sale.html

#206 NEVER GIVE UP on 12.01.16 at 1:10 pm

#80 kat on 11.29.16 at 10:08 pm
At 7 am there are enough dogs running around to fertilize Argentina. And Millennials everywhere, spilling out of their 500-square-foot boxes perched far above, blinking in the daylight.

This sounds like Yaletown in Vancouver, it reeks of dog piss in the whole neighborhood. There is even fake grass now laid down in front of many of the overpriced condos because the real stuff is dying from all the urine. Real classy stuff but at least there are several Starbucks in the area to keep it worth the big money paid to live there
——————————————————-
Basically dog ownership has become a cheap replacement for real children.

The Plebs necks have been stepped on for so long that they just can’t afford to raise kids.

In YVR the real estate scam we have lived through has caused the non birth of tens of thousands of babies.

Im sure Christy Clark is satisfied that she has made a Million or so on property appreciation. Harper was pretty happy he bought the 2011 election with real estate pumping Canada wide.

To hell with all of you in the water. We are already in the life boat!

#207 TurnerNation on 12.01.16 at 2:29 pm

Fellow tax farm slaves: $1000 is the new floor even for basement apartments in so so areas of TO.

If you earn $12/hr this means 30 weekly hours (pre tax) for shelter.

http://www.blogto.com/city/2016/11/neighbourhoods-toronto-where-you-can-still-rent-a-decent-apartment-for-1000/

#208 NUKE on 12.01.16 at 6:09 pm

I rent as the opportunity was too good to pass up. Moved into a new townhouse a quarter century ago. Quiet street 5 minute walk to Bay Street or Sky Dome. Rent has averaged less than 1% rise and is less than 15% my modestt pay.. Raised my family had dogs and lived car free once the kids grew up. Non Profit landlord depends on my market rent to help cover rgi tenants in other buildings. Have backyard as well as private park. It probably is the best deal in Toronto.

#209 Robert P. Bell on 12.02.16 at 5:22 pm

You analysis is spot on and reminds me of when we lived in Ft. Lauderdale, and like a dozen condo high-rises all “topped out” at the same time. The market crashed, and there were “see through” buildings for years to come.

But my Canadian friends tell me “Canada is different than the States!” and “There have never been bubbles in Real Estate here!”

I was in Calgary last year and we drove through one townhome development and it was like a ghost town. $20 a barrel oil really screws things up!