Civil War

shady-cat
DOUG By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

President-elect Donald Trump will be assuming office with some significant advantages. The Republicans hold the White House, Senate and House of Representatives—the last time an incoming Republican president was so fortunate was 1928. The US economy is also booming (as much as a post–credit crisis economy can boom) and markets are at all-time highs (Dow 19,000, folks). So smooth sailing; the path forward should be a lay-up even for someone with no political experience.

However, the US is, obviously, deeply divided, getting along about as well as Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie after a long flight on a private jet. The fractures are becoming readily apparent on a number of fronts. First, Democratic-state strongholds, particularly California and New York, generally hate Trump. In California, for example, a dominant 61% (and counting) voted Democrat. California alone is the world’s 6th largest economy and ‘Calexit’ is already becoming a thing. Further, powerful US cities—New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago and Washington—have vowed to resist Trump every step of the way, particularly with respect to his immigration policies. You want to deport undocumented immigrants in these cities without the support of mayors and police forces? Good luck.

And what about some of Trump’s other goals like repealing the Dodd-Frank Act, which helps keep Wall Street in check? Well, US Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, who gets along great with Republicans, has already said he has “60 votes” to block Trump. And the use of waterboarding, torture and “much stronger” techniques that Trump was in favour of throughout his campaign? Republican Senator John McCain has bluntly stated that he’ll see Trump in court if he proceeds with this proposal.

In fact, at least 11 Republican senators openly refused to support Trump during his campaign creating significant disunity within the Republican Party. Therefore major concessions and focused diplomacy will likely be required before any new legislation passes. Compromise and focus are not words I associate with Trump—someone so distractible that he may be at this moment angrily tweeting about Alec Baldwin’s “biased” portrayal of him. As journalist Andrew Prokrop recently noted:

Suffice to say… retaining the support of nearly every senator from one party for a major new bill that would hugely impact America is difficult, as Barack Obama discovered with his months-long effort to get enough Senate Democratic votes to pass health reform in 2009— and Democrats had a larger Senate majority, and a more popular president, than Republicans do.

Trump faces battles on other fronts. He’s been openly critical of the US Federal Reserve, arguing during his campaign that it should be audited and that Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen should be “ashamed of herself” for what she’s done to the US economy. Unfortunately for Trump, Yellen’s four-year term isn’t up until February 2018 and Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, a close Yellen ally, will be in place until June 2018. Trump does have the power to fill two open seats on the Fed’s seven-member board, but the Fed is currently very unified in its hawkish view, so additional appointments might not actually shift the power balance.

Besides, disrupting the Fed would be a headache that Trump likely doesn’t want at the moment. So, Trump is probably stuck with a Fed that will work to curb inflation and be at odds with his aggressive economic expansion plans.

And finally, if you want even more proof of a conflicted and divided America, poor Vice-President-elect Mike Pence can’t even have a relaxing night out at the theatre without getting lectured by the cast of “Hamilton”.

So the election’s over, but other battles are just beginning.

However, there’s one area where both sides agree: the need for infrastructure spending. The American Society of Civil Engineers gave the US a dismal D+ grade in its latest infrastructure report card, which highlighted an urgent need to spend trillions to upgrade roads, bridges, water treatment facilities, transit, rail, dams and so on. One in nine US bridges, for example, is rated as structurally deficient. Pennsylvania tops the list with an astounding 24% of its bridges rated as such. Could this be one reason Trump won Pennsylvania? House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi noted that Democrats could find “common ground” with Republicans on infrastructure spending as Hillary Clinton herself committed US$275 billion in this area. Trump has pledged roughly double this amount with the expectation that hundreds of billions more in private investment could follow.

As a portfolio manager, I can’t help but be pleased with Trump’s focus here. Infrastructure spending is clearly needed, will likely be economically stimulative, boost corporate profits and be positive for many cyclical equities. So, hopefully, this common political ground does exist.

According to AAA, nearly 49 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more throughout this US Thanksgiving holiday. Think of it: Democrats and Republicans driving across all those structurally deficient bridges—together.

Structurally Deficient Bridges In US
doug-1

Source: American Society of Civil Engineers. Structurally deficient bridges are defined as bridges that require significant maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement. Yellow = more deficient bridges

Doug Rowat,FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

148 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 11.26.16 at 4:08 pm

Riding the subway in Toronto most ads are for debt,  education (also debt) and religion.
Using canards and tankards our vicious ruling elites have pyramided us into submission:

Turn the other cheek!
Do unto others…!
The Golden Rule!

As I said they’re coming for 100% of our income.
Toronto to use road tolls..those roads , already we pay 101 taxes for them.
Alberta handing public companies like Transalta billions in our money for coal plant payouts.

The devil is in the details: dozens of new laws each year.  No debate.

#2 Canadian bank stock lover on 11.26.16 at 4:09 pm

Hi Doug,
Do you think are a good place to be invested?

#3 Wrk.dover on 11.26.16 at 4:11 pm

An audit of the Fed will put the works of them in prison for about 500 years each, allowing new appointments in the suddenly vacant positions.

I understand Trump is pro audit too!

#4 For those about to flop... on 11.26.16 at 4:13 pm

Robax,this is your best post yet.

To supplement your point about some of the richer cities holding the Orange Octopus accountable ,I will share this image which shows you where the money is made in America.

No real surprises,but worth a gander…

M42BC

http://imgur.com/a/oo0nU

#5 Polls R Phake on 11.26.16 at 4:15 pm

Gee imagine that. Bad bridges mostly in Socialist Blue Areas.

The greatest advantage to President Trump is that he is not a career politician.

#6 conan on 11.26.16 at 4:20 pm

The calm before the storm is what is going on. I would feel better if Trump had put together a decent Cabinet. Bunch of idiots for the most part.

#7 David on 11.26.16 at 4:34 pm

Thanks for this thoughtful commentary Doug. All the scare mongering about Trump was just that. At least it will be more interesting than four years under predictable – and boring – Hillary Clinton.

#8 Context on 11.26.16 at 4:35 pm

Ok, so bring this full circle as how does this all relate to Canada’s economic growth and prosperity?

#9 common sense on 11.26.16 at 4:43 pm

Yes as a person who drives over bridges in NYS holding my breath at times, infrastructure is loooooooooooooooooooong overdue…

#10 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Field HQ on 11.26.16 at 4:53 pm

Regarding the great Liberal Heresy in California, NY:

The weak will always be led by the strong. Where the strong see purpose and act, the weak follow; where the strong cry out against fate, the weak bow their heads and succumb. There are many who are weak; and many are their temptations. Despise the weak for they shall flock to the call of the Globalist and the Renegade.

Pity them not and scorn their cries of innocence – it is better that one hundred innocently fall before the wrath of the God Emperor Trump than one kneels before internationalist, cosmopolitan globe-trotters.

And remember: the Emperor Protects..

#11 Pete on 11.26.16 at 4:58 pm

Let’s hope that this “re-count” stuff doesn’t get in the way of The Donald doing what he promised to do. Here’s hoping Donald charges full-steam-ahead in January.
Donald has the mandate; take it and run with it I say. The voters that matter are fully behind him. He’d better not let them down. The leftist cry-babies can keep on crying; their days of influence are just about over. And, do the feminists really think that the current Islamic immigration trend sweeping the West would be happening if feminism wasn’t about to be overturned by the powers-that-be?

#12 For those about to flop... on 11.26.16 at 5:03 pm

I might as well post this one as well.

It is an image of how much each citizen owes their country regarding national debt.

U.S and Canada are neck and neck.

I get a discount if I go back to Australia…

M42BC

https://howmuch.net

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.26.16 at 5:12 pm

Excellent comment style Doug.
Serious issues with the tounge planted firmly in cheek.
Well done.

As for Trump .
He may have to cross those Republican & Democrat bridges in the near future.

#14 alberta guy on 11.26.16 at 5:15 pm

ok, so what etfs specialize in infrastructure spending USA and CAD

#15 TCContrarian on 11.26.16 at 5:16 pm

I’m paying close attention to what Gundlach says about inflation. He’s known as the Bond King for a good reason:

“Gundlach sees something else unstoppable: a rise in bond yields that could lift the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to 6% in the next four or five years.”

“Gundlach says he hasn’t formulated an opinion yet on what’s next for the stock market, partly because of the difficulty of reconciling opposing forces: on the one hand, pro-growth policies, and on the other, higher rates, which would pose competition for stocks. “If rates stay around these levels, it is probably a net positive for stocks,” he says. “But if they move sharply higher, I don’t see how stocks withstand it.” ”

http://www.barrons.com/articles/gundlach-bond-yields-could-hit-6-in-five-years-1478929496

#16 RIL on 11.26.16 at 5:26 pm

Rowat, nicely done.

#17 For those about to flop... on 11.26.16 at 5:33 pm

O.k. I’m going for it.

This chart shows how long it takes to purchase a gallon of gas/petrol on minimum wage.

Once again,not much of a gap between U.S and Canada.

Once again cheaper in Australia.

What am I still doing here?

That’s right….I love my wife…

M42BC

# freedomsecond

https://howmuch.net/articles/the-petrol-sweat-index

#18 Pepito on 11.26.16 at 5:35 pm

Not since 1928 you say….hmm. That’s some eerie similarities. And what came after 1928?

#19 Smoking Man on 11.26.16 at 5:37 pm

Nice writing style doug.. You learn fast.

T2 getting totally trashed on Twitter
#trudeaueulogies

Come join the fun Doug.

#20 WaitingOnTheWorldToChange on 11.26.16 at 5:37 pm

Hi Doug,

While one perspective may be that the market is pricing in growth and inflation….hence the spike in bond yields I would be interested in your thoughts on an alternative view:

– the disruption in the bond market is related to the global debt bubble with over $100 Trillion in sovereign debt

– the reason why the US dollar is surging is due to a squeeze in liquidity (holders of US sovereign debt…primarily China is dumping it)

– yet….the US still has all of these bonds sitting on its balance sheet due to QE, so has to continue to re-float

– there is now fear that the bond asset bubble is going to implode spiking further selling

– the net affect is a massive erosion of wealth….increasing fears of stagflation

– we are now in a reinforcing spiral….as the strong US dollar with higher rates moves the US closer to recession

– the Trump election exacerbates the concerns as his protectionist policies creates economic headwinds and retaliation policies from China et al

– the current reality is the US is equally dependent upon global trade and everyone knows that Trump cannot create enough domestic growth to support the expected debt increases in a rising interest rate environment (US projected debt to increase to $30 T).

– if the US grows at 3% or less (an almost certainty) they cannot sustain a 30 T debt at normalized interest rates

– only solution is to print more money or institute massive austerity measures ( huge social impacts and one term). Trump will print more money

I have yet to hear one person explain how the US can expect 3+ % growth when they create global trade wars. The net result is the currency wars will escalate. UK, Italy, Greece….now Dutch and Swedes are all setting themselves up to seced from EU so that they can print money and essentially default on debt.

We have a debt crisis and the Canadian issues are benign relative to the global issues. Have you seen the pension plans setting up for defaults….just like Detroit did?

#21 For those about to flop... on 11.26.16 at 5:40 pm

Probably going to get fired,so I might as well go down in a blaze of glory.

This one shows which countries attract the most foreign investment.

China is way out front…

M42BC

https://howmuch.net/articles/foreign-direct-investment-map

#22 Who luvs ya baby on 11.26.16 at 5:41 pm

#12 For those about to flop… on 11.26.16 at 5:03 pm

I might as well post this one as well.

It is an image of how much each citizen owes their country regarding national debt.

U.S and Canada are neck and neck.

I get a discount if I go back to Australia…

M42BC

https://howmuch.net

That’s it, I’m packing up and heading to Mali or Haiti

#23 Andrew Woburn on 11.26.16 at 5:41 pm

First, let me clear in saying I agree that an infrastructure build out makes sense on many levels and should do much more for the real economy than another round of quantitative easing.

Still the American Society of Civil Engineers has been blowing the whistle on infrastructure for years. Although Americans have a justified faith in their engineers, if risks were as high as they appear to be, you would have expected at least two reactions before now. First, insurance rates should be skyrocketing. Second, state governors should be losing serious sleep over the prospect of losing a hundred registered Republicans in a bridge collapse. Perhaps Buffet is right. You never ask the barber/engineer if you need a haircut/new bridge.

It’s not like there is no problem. There’s a section of I-5 just south of the border that feels like it was paved by the governor’s brother-in-law. The issue seems to be who will pay for the upgrades and how. It is difficult to believe the anointing of Trump (with snake oil presumably) will convince hard core Tea Party types to swallow more government debt. Private capital will want to be paid back with tolls. The federal gas tax is long overdue for a hike but, at this point, such a move could just accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles. It doesn’t seem likely the average Republican voter or the oil lobby would favour it.

Trump is currently a political Rorschach test. Commentators look at a greasy little inkblot and see what they wish for. Canadians accustomed to powerful prime ministers, think he can just make it so. But, despite the pollution of political cash and wall-to-wall lobbyists, the US is still vastly more democratic. The US party organizations are very weak compared to ours. There will be no Canadian Trump because no major party leader would sign his nomination papers. All the massed forces of the Republican National Committee couldn’t put Jeb together again. Don’t even ask about a Canadian Bernie equivalent.

My point is that Congress critters are forced to be very attuned to the demands of their local voter base and less so to wishes of the party hierarchy or the White House. They will be focused on the next round of House elections in 2018. If The Donald can sell their voters on his vision of spending their way to infrastructure greatness again, all well and good. If his plan develops a deceased rodent odour of loot for fellow billionaires, maybe not. Who knows, maybe the I-5 will get federal rehab money and be renamed the Ivanka-5 Freeway. Maybe its time the Golden Gate Bridge was redecorated with gold leaf a la Trump.

#24 common sense on 11.26.16 at 5:44 pm

Don’t leave us Flopper….you will just add to our share to pay if you do…

#25 jess on 11.26.16 at 5:48 pm

other reasons for recount?

http://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2016/09/14/report-lead-paint-makers-helped-gov-walker/90349256/

“The Guardian story quotes a Walker email to Karl Rove, a former top aide to President George W. Bush who oversaw a major political action committee, in which the Republican governor credits Johnson and Wisconsin for Growth in the election of Gableman and Prosser. Both justices voted to shut down the John Doe investigation.

“RJ was the chief adviser to my campaign,” Walker wrote on May 4, 2011. “He put together the team to flip the Senate three times and the Assembly two times.”

GOP operatives discussed ginning up ‘voter fraud’ reports
Daniel Bice , Milwaukee Journal Sentinel 12:23 p.m. CDT September 28, 2016
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3105957-Prosser.html

Wisconsin Club for Growth (WCFG) is a state arm of the national Club for Growth, and one of the top political spenders in Wisconsin. WCFG spent $9.1 million during the Wisconsin’s historic 2012 recall races for Governor, Lt. Governor and State Senate, and has reportedly received a subpoena in a 2012-2014 John Doe criminal probe into possible campaign finance violations during those races”

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Wisconsin_Club_for_Growth

#26 Andrew Woburn on 11.26.16 at 6:03 pm

#15 TCContrarian on 11.26.16 at 5:16 pm
I’m paying close attention to what Gundlach says about inflation. He’s known as the Bond King for a good reason:
———————–
Good post. I don’t have a Barron’s subscription so I found it here:

http://oneradionetwork.com/archive/trader-scotts-market-blog-gundlach-bond-yields-hit-6-five-years-november-14-2016/

#27 saskatoon on 11.26.16 at 6:05 pm

perhaps those in government should never have forcibly taken others’ money to build those “decaying” bridges in the first place…

#28 Sideshow Rob on 11.26.16 at 6:06 pm

Random observation from the fringe… I was driving through some neighborhoods in Calgary last week. Every for sale sign had a SOLD sticker slapped on it. Not sure what that really means.
Is the non existent HAM coming here in droves?
Did interest rates drop at the bank of Mom and Dad?
Is the Calgary market a lot stronger than what’s being reported?
Did sold stickers go on sale?
This is not exactly prime time for moving. No idea what the explanation is. Just reporting what I saw.

#29 NoName on 11.26.16 at 6:09 pm

funny thing this was all over radio on top 10 hits before we got ours…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYoIgKxOK4A

#30 traderJim on 11.26.16 at 6:13 pm

Of course people are not dancing in the street in Havana, because they would be arrested if they even spoke out loud criticizing Fidel.

The local informers in every neighbourhood would make sure of that.

But I guarantee you the families that I used to stay with in Havana when I first started studying Spanish will be having quiet celebrations in their homes with the blinds drawn.

Just look at the all the video tweets from Cubans showing how their parents and grandparents reacted when they heard the news. This one is my fave:

https://twitter.com/Natylagorditaa/status/802517222459658240

Brief translation: ‘I have good news’ (grandpa backs up chair to be ready), he guesses maybe some freedom for Cuba? No….no freedom, but Fidel is dead. Grandpa bursts into tears.

Excellent article and history of Fidel: His own daughter calls him a tyrant:

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/fidel-castro-en/article117186483.html

#31 Paul on 11.26.16 at 6:21 pm

You think Trump is bad for America? We have Trudumb here.

#32 Doug Rowat on 11.26.16 at 6:21 pm

#11 Pete on 11.26.16 at 4:58 pm

Let’s hope that this “re-count” stuff doesn’t get in the way of The Donald doing what he promised to do. Here’s hoping Donald charges full-steam-ahead in January.
Donald has the mandate; take it and run with it I say. The voters that matter are fully behind him.

Yeah, those pesky recounts that voters are legally allowed to request. And I thought all voters matter, Pete? 88% of blacks didn’t vote for him, but they’ve never really mattered, right?

–Doug

#33 traderJim on 11.26.16 at 6:23 pm

On a happier note, while in Cuba I learned of Polo Montanez, a self taught musician who is a near god in Cuba. Many homes have a picture of Polo on their walls.

I was in Cuba the day he died tragically in a car accident. People were literally crying in the streets.

He only made two albums before he died, both brilliant.

Here’s one of his more popular songs:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1j3QHyBOyhg

#34 Patricia Robbins, MD. on 11.26.16 at 6:31 pm

DELETED

#35 jess on 11.26.16 at 6:34 pm

To read the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s “Landlord Games” investigation into landlords who are gaming the system to avoid paying delinquent fines and taxes, go to

jsonline.com/landlordgames.

http://www.jsonline.com/story/news/investigations/reports/2016/11/03/city-wins-injunction-against-landlord/93245678/

#36 Figmund Sreud on 11.26.16 at 6:39 pm

As a portfolio manager, I can’t help but be pleased with Trump’s focus here [infrastructure spending]
__________________________________

Of course you can’t help but be please! Consider, … snip:

“Trump’s plan is not really an infrastructure plan. It’s a tax-cut plan for utility-industry and construction-sector investors, and a massive corporate welfare plan for contractors. The Trump plan doesn’t directly fund new roads, bridges, water systems or airports, as did Hillary Clinton’s 2016 infrastructure proposal. Instead, Trump’s plan provides tax breaks to private-sector investors who back profitable construction projects. … There’s no requirement that the tax breaks be used for … expanded construction efforts; they could all go just to fatten the pockets of investors in previously planned projects…

Second, as a result of the above, Trump’s plan isn’t really a jobs plan, either. Because the plan subsidizes investors, not projects; because it funds tax breaks, not bridges; because there’s no requirement that the projects be otherwise unfunded, there is simply no guarantee that the plan will produce any net new hiring. …

Buried inside the plan will be provisions to weaken prevailing wage protections on construction projects, undermining unions and ultimately eroding workers’ earnings. Environmental rules are almost certain to be gutted in the name of accelerating projects.”

Enchilada:

Trump’s big infrastructure plan? It’s a trap.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trumps-big-infrastructure-plan-its-a-trap/2016/11/18/5b1d109c-adae-11e6-8b45-f8e493f06fcd_story.html?utm_term=.1af946ca0f5e

F.S. – Comox, BC.

#37 Ace Goodheart on 11.26.16 at 6:51 pm

RE: #1 Turner Nation:

They’re not coming for our income. They’re coming for some structure and organisation to Toronto.

if you want to live off the grid, free of tolls and taxes, then do so. A lot of people do. It is a good life if you like isolation and freedom. More power to those who do it.

For me I like the City. But the City lacks some things. Like transit.

Look at London, UK. There are road tolls. Congestion tolls I think they call them. The closer you get to the Centre, the more it costs. We need this in Toronto. We have this ridiculous mess with cars and more cars coming in, all for free and budget deficits for transit. If you want to drive to Toronto, you should pay a toll to bring a car in. Money goes to fixing our transit system. A City is all about the collective, fix things for the masses, the better it is for everyone, the better it is in general. If people don’t like the common good, then Canada is huge. You don’t have to live in a City (or drive to one). There is a choice. Rural or urban, up to you. Urban comes at a price.

RE: Trumpster: This is going from funny to hilarious. He is setting himself up like a sub Saharan African dictator. In the world’s most democratic country. I can’t see this ending well. But really, who cares? The USA has become a reality TV sitcom. We all watch amazed as it descends to new depths. At this point it is just funny. Maybe soon the zompocalypse will come (Zika babies?) and we’ll all be living in caves fighting off the walking dead. Until then, it is just a comedy show.

#38 Scully on 11.26.16 at 6:53 pm

Great article. Yes, there are many factors that have not played out yet so being “balanced” in what looks like a potentially unbalanced presidential term is key. I really hope Trump makes good with infrastructure.
Speaking of unbalanced…has the internet made everyone a conspiracy theorist? Just askin.’

#39 Wild Albertan gonads on 11.26.16 at 6:57 pm

You’re getting the hang of this Doug.

Now T2 … wow wow wow just when I thought you could not possibly be a bigger idiot. Bam. You did it. An epic world stage fail. Praising a dictator who ruled with an iron fist for fifty years as a remarkable leader.

#40 Pete on 11.26.16 at 7:00 pm

Yeah, those pesky recounts that voters are legally allowed to request. And I thought all voters matter, Pete? 88% of blacks didn’t vote for him, but they’ve never really mattered, right?
–Doug
————
Legally allowed to request, yes, but shouldn’t have in light of their uproar at the mere mention by Donald that he might not accept a defeat.
As for black votes, who really knows who voted for whom. And you can be sure that the blacks who voted for Donald are not the ones out there rioting and destroying now. The votes of non-criminals are the only votes that matter to me. Ask any judge, they’ll agree. Prisoners and felons aren’t allowed to vote at all; so the vote of those not yet convicted hold no importance to me.

#41 Sunburned canuck on 11.26.16 at 7:20 pm

Spending on infrastructure In the news.
Justin’s plans are leading the way..

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/11/23/renovations-to-prime-ministers-official-residence-could-cost-38m-report-says.html

#42 Newcomer on 11.26.16 at 7:21 pm

Dough, you say, “So, Trump is probably stuck with a Fed that will work to curb inflation and be at odds with his aggressive economic expansion plans.”

You’ve got it backward. Trump’s criticism of the Fed is that they have been too dovish. His stated intended approach is fiscal, not monetary, stimulus, so if the Fed is hawkish now, that fits well with Trump’s stated goals.

None of this is to say that Tump’s stated goals are coherent or that they will meet with acceptance or success.

#43 Nice Lefty Rant... on 11.26.16 at 7:23 pm

The Left, in America, is in complete disarray and rudderless, united only by their hatred of Trump and continuing to regurgitate, tirelessly and ad nauseum, that which cost them the election.

Bigots with rose colored glasses.

I mean, how does someone lose to a candidate like Trump and with a 2 million vote plurality?

Simple. Hillary was worse. Hands down outsmarted in winning key EC states, campaign spending and marketing.

This is whom the left cries for? She is not Evita and America is not Argentina…mercifully.

Incidentally DOUG, Frank has said Dodd-Frank needs revising as it is unfair to small business. Your Mr. Schumer may well need to heed the advice of one of its authors.

Try not to take verbatim everything the left dominated MSM says and do some fact checking.

Recall, these are the same people that said Hillary would win by 10 PM election night, ignored all of her sins and said that all will be well.

Such fantasy.

bsant

#44 Victor V on 11.26.16 at 7:25 pm

Rex Murphy on the Liberals’ ‘side-splitting defence’ of its political fundraising tactics

http://www.cbc.ca/news/thenational/rex-murphy-the-liberal-mindset-1.3865148

#45 SJP on 11.26.16 at 7:28 pm

Hello Mr. Rowat,

As always thanks for the very informative post. The free education is always much appreciated.

I understand you’re used to dealing with seven and eight figure portfolios but for us small time indexers who are just cracking the six figure mark in investments is there any chance you could post about tax efficient investing?

When my TFSA and RRSP are filled the non-registered account will be put to good use but I want to ensure I’m going about things correctly.

Have a great weekend and thanks again.

#46 Mark M. on 11.26.16 at 7:32 pm

Doug,

How will the bridges be paid for?

#47 the other white meat (pork) on 11.26.16 at 7:33 pm

Two questions, but perhaps only one has an answer. How does the turmoil in the bond market affect pension plans (I’m a filthy government worker in BC)?

And when did illegal aliens become undocumented immigrants?

#48 Estrella on 11.26.16 at 7:34 pm

In other news, Justin Trudeau has just sympathised with Cuba on the loss of their great leader…the tyrant who was possibly linked to 70000 to 140000 missing or dead citizens and whom had over 600 assignation attempts.

Good job Justin, in one official post, our very young and unseasoned prime minister has just revealed that he knows very little about political history beyond what he remembers while touring with his father.

I will add that Trump, on the other hand, had a better response to the passing of cuba’s dictator.

let the good times roll, stock-rock in roll, hopefully the party just started.

#49 Sunburned canuck on 11.26.16 at 7:40 pm

Canada’s Prime Minister comments affirms why they call him a ‘Rock Star”.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/justin-trudeau-on-fidel-castro-a-legendary-revolutionary-who-improved-education-and-healthcare

#50 Context on 11.26.16 at 7:56 pm

T1’s family home as PM was located at 1418 Pine Avenue West and guess what was across the street at 1415 Pine Avenue West in Montreal? Now I really don’t believe in coincidences at all.

#51 Setting the Record Straight on 11.26.16 at 7:56 pm

@12 for those about to flop

Remember those per capita debt figures are in US dollars.

Neck and neck we are with the US in absolute terms but we need to add 30% to figure out what we would pay in this country’s legal lender

#52 Setting the Record Straight on 11.26.16 at 7:58 pm

Not a Republican president. An independent. Owes the Republicans little.

#53 For those about to flop... on 11.26.16 at 7:59 pm

#24 common sense on 11.26.16 at 5:44 pm
Don’t leave us Flopper….you will just add to our share to pay if you do…

//////////////////////////////

Don’t worry Common ,I’ll settle up if I do.

I will deposit a cheque in Christy Clark’s Fraser canyon.

One thing I am certain of though, I am not adding to
Canada’s growth.

The boss talked about projected growth for U.S and Canada the other day ,here is how one group thought thing were going to play out over the next decade.

I talked yesterday about how my India fund had been a donkey,these guys pegged them to lead the way with 7% growth.

Burning all their cash is a great way to start…

M42BC

https://howmuch.net/articles/atlas-of-economic-growth

#54 Timmy on 11.26.16 at 8:01 pm

Trump is going to give infrastructure contracts to his buddies whom some will have planned to do the work anyway so they will get some tax breAk or rebate at taxpayers expense. Infrastructure spending as we have seen one past will barely move the needle. Many projects are not shovel ready and much of this will take a long time to effect the economy.

Maybe they can get loans from the Chinese bank that Trudeau is helping to set up in Canada– the one where he attended a dinner of a wealthy Chinese businessman.

#55 Victor V on 11.26.16 at 8:15 pm

The CRA is cracking down on real estate tax dodgers in Canada’s red hot market

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/personal-finance/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/the-cra-is-cracking-down-on-real-estate-tax-dodgers-in-canadas-red-hot-market

#56 RIL on 11.26.16 at 8:18 pm

I am crafting a rant. I will submit it at 9:50 Mountain Standard Time, or ten minutes before closing time at Garth’s Roadside Honky Tonk & Investment Social Club. It is about the wolf cull in Alberta. This is just a TRIGGER WARNING. if enviro leftie rants are not your bag – scroll.

#57 nonplused on 11.26.16 at 8:34 pm

Most entertaining US election ever, and it’s still not over!

Jill Stein, who managed to capture just over 1% of the vote, is demanding recounts in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. And she’s already raised more money than she spent on her campaign to do it! It’s coming in at $160,000 an hour!

Now, obviously any and all recounts won’t give Jill a single electoral collage vote, so what, for her, is the point? One wonders…. Head of the EPA? New house? One can only speculate.

Imagine if the recounts result in a Clinton win! I imagine all hell will break loose.

Or maybe the powers that be decided that a recount will give the protesters something to hope for until they get through the 5 stages and calm the **** down.

Oh well nice to see the US Black Friday holiday went off without a hitch. Only a couple dead and a couple more injured. It’s nice to see that no matter what their differences are, US citizens can even in times like these rally around the most cherished of all US holidays.

#58 Doug Rowat on 11.26.16 at 8:34 pm

#40 Pete on 11.26.16 at 7:00 pm

As for black votes, who really knows who voted for whom.

Yeah, exit pollsters are pretty incompetent. It’s been said Jackie Robinson was the first black player in Major League Baseball, but who can tell?

I thought Smoking Man was the most entertaining poster?

Wrong. I want you back every week Pete.

–Doug

#59 Retired on a Gulf Island on 11.26.16 at 8:34 pm

Hated Trump before the election.

Portfolio is up more than $100,000 this month.

Having second thoughts.

#60 Context on 11.26.16 at 8:35 pm

#41 Sunburned:- It will cost $60 million when all is said and done so it might be time for a reset because the land is free. Trash the joint and build a new home for $20 million by going green with the latest technology to become a show piece for Canada.

#61 Balmuto on 11.26.16 at 8:35 pm

“#3 Wrk.dover on 11.26.16 at 4:11 pm
An audit of the Fed will put the works of them in prison for about 500 years each, allowing new appointments in the suddenly vacant positions.

I understand Trump is pro audit too!”

What’s with you guys wanting to put everyone you don’t like in jail?

#62 never ask the barber/engineer on 11.26.16 at 8:35 pm

#23 Andrew Woburn

Buffet is being flippant.

America’s Civil Engineers are correct, many bridges there are in rough shape.

They have far too many bridge structures showing signs of severe fatigue and/or corrosion [some bridges in colder climates built before they had fracture tough steels – Google “Liberty Ship Brittle Fracture” and view Google Images to get an idea, many of their bridges pre-date WWII and using the same types of steel].

I have read numerous failure reports from the Americans decades ago about this and seen West Coast bridges with fatigue cracking – designing structures then myself.

Since then, they have been patching on the go.

Much like the Lions Gate and Pattullo Bridges in Vancouver or the Champlain Bridge in Montreal.

Trump has also said that he wants to spend money on Inner City infrastructure. What that means I do not know.

bsant

#63 mark on 11.26.16 at 8:36 pm

I thing Doug should do 6 days a week, ggarth can do the one day special, cuz he is special☺

#64 Doug Rowat on 11.26.16 at 8:42 pm

#45 SJP on 11.26.16 at 7:28 pm
Hello Mr. Rowat,

As always thanks for the very informative post. The free education is always much appreciated.

I understand you’re used to dealing with seven and eight figure portfolios but for us small time indexers who are just cracking the six figure mark in investments is there any chance you could post about tax efficient investing?

When my TFSA and RRSP are filled the non-registered account will be put to good use but I want to ensure I’m going about things correctly.

Have a great weekend and thanks again.

Some of our most recent newsletters on http://www.turnerinvestments.ca discuss these exact subjects. Available to everyone regardless of portfolio size.

–Doug

#65 Ret on 11.26.16 at 8:54 pm

Yeah, I’m up for some infrastructure spending. Political infrastrucure spending, not so much.

Buying votes in every riding in the country with infrastructure money is typically what has happened in the past. Unfortunately, fixing hairline cracks in sidewalks is unlikely to make Canada great again.

Lots of one and done projects that never really resulted in new jobs or benefit for the country, province or municipality once the project was completed.

Money has to be spent in a thoughtful, strategic way that will benefit Canadians in a meaningful way long into the future. To date, this has rarely happened.

The US civil engineers say that Americans are risking their lives when driving over most of the bridges in America. Sounds rather self serving to me.

Bridge building could be good if thousands of engineering grads, new heavy equipment operators, apprentice mechanics etc. get work experience and a chance to start in a meaningful career. It is time to focus on people, not political pay backs.

On a more local note, Hamilton was pushing for $200M dollars to build huge new bus sheds to park their expanded fleet of busses in. Funny, in this area, most of the school buses sit outside in the worst weather, which we don’t get a lot of compared to other cities such as London. I’m confused.

Maybe $200M dollars could best be spent on something other than bus sheds? Maybe only 1/2 the busses need to sit in climate controlled comfort? That would save $100M to actually help many Hamiltonians get job training, experience and certifications to move out of poverty and low income jobs.

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/6376718-hamilton-s-302-million-bus-transit-funding-request-crashes/

#66 WalMark of sadkatoon on 11.26.16 at 8:56 pm

All the salty anti-Trump posters today. Feast on those tears!

#67 Gary on 11.26.16 at 9:00 pm

At least he’s not hosting fundraising dinners for wealthy Chinese businessmen who are trying to buy access like Trudeau is doing.

#68 Tom from Mississauga on 11.26.16 at 9:01 pm

Forget what was said during election and focus on what’s said right now.

#69 Historian on 11.26.16 at 9:01 pm

It’s been common this election to compare the Donald (and Vlad) to Hitler. Well I don’t know if they are reincarnations or not, but Hitler, it must be understood, was more than anything just the right man in the right place at the right time (or wrong man, however you want to look at it). Fascism was sweeping parts of Europe. No man could have done what he did on his own, and it doesn’t look to me like the big D. would be able to either even if that were his intent.

We’ve all seen movies where someone is faced with the dilemma, if you could somehow go back in time and kill Hitler or otherwise remove him from the path he was on, would you? Stalin? Pol Pot? Caligula? Castro? Osama? There are many names from the past that were incredibly bad actors. In fact why not go back and disrupt the Manhattan project? The list of atrocities is too long to go through even a portion of them.

So here’s my question: If you could go back and stop Hitler, would it have made a difference? Or would somebody else arise and the tides of war be even angrier and more brutal as a result of the assassination? Are individual men and women really able to change the tides of time, or do they just ride them?

If you could go back in time and prevent the assassination of JFK, how would the world look today? They never do that thought experiment in the movies.

Or how about even John Lennon? If somebody was able to go back and convince him not to go for a sandwich that fateful night, how much different would the world be? Probably he’d have sold a few more albums at the expense of some other artists but not much other than that.

So here is my point: No one is irreplaceable. Not an artist, not a politician, not a CEO, not a sports hero. They all are riding a wave.

The only thing we need to fear is well organised propaganda, such as we get from the main stream media. This is the tool that can change the tides and in the modern era now more than ever.

There is a move underfoot to create censorship on the internet based on which sites are “fake” and which are “real”. (Garth take note because the realtors will probably lobby to have you put on the “fake” list.) Why is this? Propaganda requires control of the medium. Sure, a lot of these sites on the internet are probably fake or somebody else’s propaganda, that’s why you have to use your head, but certainly anything in the MSM is propaganda for sure.

So it doesn’t matter who is president of the USA, nearly so much as it matters who is president of CNN. And they subtly put all of that propaganda into your regular programming too. Ever wonder why the military is so present before NFL games? I mean what does the military have to do with a simple, base, sports spectacle? Well, recruiting. Not many people want to sign up to go to Iraq and get shot at for $30,000 a year, so you have to put their favorite team and sports heroes on the message. You think any of those $7,00,000 a year true athletes who probably are very fit to serve are ever going to join the army? No. But they can advertise.

#70 Gary on 11.26.16 at 9:05 pm

What is the name of that Consulting company the Liberals engaged that is doing free consulting for the Feds on infrastructure? They will be lined up nicely when things go to tender. Maybe they can get loans from the Chinese bank that Trudeau is helping to set up.

#71 GFD on 11.26.16 at 9:17 pm

Good job Canadians . . . . . we have elected an idiot!

#72 stage1dave on 11.26.16 at 9:20 pm

“…the last time an incoming president was this fortunate was in 1928…”

Ummmm…given what came immediately afterwards, I think intervening history has changed that verdict. Is it really time to duck n’ cover? (Apologies in advance, Mr. Rowat; I couldn’t resist that comparison) Perhaps Mr. Trump will one day wish he had stuck with RE?

Now I need to get back to selling everything, finishing my bomb shelter, buying gold, maxing out my CC’s, and making sure my tin foil-everything is actually grounded…haha

#73 Toronto Crushes the 905!! on 11.26.16 at 9:33 pm

FINALLY, some leadership this week. Tory announces road tolls.

It has been far too long a freee ride for those parasites from suburbia using our highways and roads and paying ZERO towards their maintenance.

If you live in Milton or Ajax or Newcastle or Barrie

#74 Toronto Crushes the 905!! on 11.26.16 at 9:37 pm

(sorry, got cut off by some angry 905’ers, lol)

As I was saying……If you live in Milton or Ajax or Newcastle or Barrie or Burlington, you are a parasite on the 416. You are a welfare bum, sponging off the wealth we have created. And with new measures like responsible road tolls, your property values will suddenly seem even more delusional.

No wonder Garth warns that the 905 will be hit the hardest, the fastest, in the coming real estate meltdown.

#75 stage1dave on 11.26.16 at 9:47 pm

#69 Historian

Great post! I’ve arrived at the same conclusion; not any one of these individuals (good or bad, talented or loathsome) could have done what they did in a vacuum. It’s almost as if certain accomplishments (and I’m using that word liberally) belong to certain times?

I’m also of the opinion that it’s easier to reach your potential once you realize your own insignificance in the grand order of things…it’s up to each of us to take that first step. (or should I say “potential” insignificance?)

This has definitely been the most entertaining election in recent memory…and a foreign one at that! Now all we need to do is get Duterte in the Phillipines a Twitter account.

JHC, between him & Trump tweeting I wouldn’t have time to catch up with Ancient Aliens…

#76 Mark" on 11.26.16 at 9:52 pm

“The US economy is also booming

#77 I hate CONservatives on 11.26.16 at 9:56 pm

Estrella on 11.26.16 at 7:34 pm
In other news, Justin Trudeau has just sympathised with Cuba on the loss of their great leader…the tyrant who was possibly linked to 70000 to 140000 missing or dead citizens and whom had over 600 assignation attempts.

Good job Justin, in one official post, our very young and unseasoned prime minister has just revealed that he knows very little about political history beyond what he remembers while touring with his father.

I will add that Trump, on the other hand, had a better response to the passing of cuba’s dictator.

let the good times roll, stock-rock in roll, hopefully the party just started.
—————————————————————-

You know nothing about history. You repeat pro corporate, anti-working class CONservative propaganda. I hate CONservatives as they are by far the most gullible people. I will say CONservative voters make for good work horses where they obey your commands like good little puppets. Puppets you can abuse and throw away like an orange peel. CON voters are puppets for the puppet masters.

#78 Smoking Man on 11.26.16 at 9:56 pm

Just watched movie Mr write.

Do I want to track down the stars of the flick and bend to my knees in adulation.. Hell no.. Actors are monkeys that are good at memorize regurigitation.

It’s the writer of the script I want to bend to.. Perfect.

#79 Context on 11.26.16 at 10:02 pm

#70 Gary:- I believe it was Abacus Corp. the international consulting company based in Shanghai.

#80 Smoking Man on 11.26.16 at 10:08 pm

Bit wasted at the moment.

Doug vs Ryan.

I’m betting Ryan is a better portfolio manager.
Doug is a way better word smith. Obviously with today’s words. Pressure is on Ryan next week..

In the end.. Nothing else matters..

Chase the dream.. No matter what your teacher said you would be good at.

I never tryed a roll as a garbage man that all my teachers thought I would excel at..

If I did like everything else I tried.. I’d be the best.

#81 Smoking Man on 11.26.16 at 10:25 pm

Aliens exist.. Trust me.

#82 stage1dave on 11.26.16 at 10:34 pm

On second thought, I think Bobby Orr would have been a game-changer in whatever generation he played.

Been pondering this for a few moments while the wife has been chatting with the MIL…in the late 90’s, I was playing in a cover band that was rapidly developing several decent original tunes…we thought…anyway, lyrically I was combining Dylan whilst channeling Angus Young musically…perhaps an unwise combination.

This incongruity was brought up at a jam session by our drummer. He was a very literate musician, btw…a decade younger than I, he still proclaimed “…Bob Dylan couldn’t get arrested today, let alone sell an f’n record! That stuffs done, man; nobody gives a shit anymore”

I didn’t agree with him then, but in hindsight, at that time I think he was right. (if that makes any sense) Times change, peoples’ focus’ changes as well; the wave crests and disappears…then another one comes along.

Funny how I can’t remember what came next…hmmm…oh crap…Lady GaGa & Beyonce…

#83 Spiffy on 11.26.16 at 11:33 pm

Thanks for the post, Doug. What are your thoughts on if anyone really been economically far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?

#84 Don Der on 11.26.16 at 11:45 pm

Man you bloggers are on fire tonight – flop’s links have been forwarded. Historian is bang on, except remember sir, Stalin, not Churchill defeated Hitler (25 million dead in the German Russo war). The yanks then became the new bad guy (i’m being polite).

But Turner Nation continues to impress. If you want your political/financial history for the last 25 years, and the next 25 years, adhere to Turner Nations final salvo:

“The devil is in the details: dozens of new laws each year.  No debate.”

You are not part of the decision making process folks. Ever get the feeling you’ve been cheated?

#85 Who luvs ya baby on 11.26.16 at 11:50 pm

#82 stage1dave on 11.26.16 at 10:34 pm

On second thought, I think Bobby Orr would have been a game-changer in whatever generation he played.

Been pondering this for a few moments while the wife has been chatting with the MIL…in the late 90’s, I was playing in a cover band that was rapidly developing several decent original tunes…we thought…anyway, lyrically I was combining Dylan whilst channeling Angus Young musically…perhaps an unwise combination.

This incongruity was brought up at a jam session by our drummer. He was a very literate musician, btw…a decade younger than I, he still proclaimed “…Bob Dylan couldn’t get arrested today, let alone sell an f’n record! That stuffs done, man; nobody gives a shit anymore”

I didn’t agree with him then, but in hindsight, at that time I think he was right. (if that makes any sense) Times change, peoples’ focus’ changes as well; the wave crests and disappears…then another one comes along.

Funny how I can’t remember what came next…hmmm…oh crap…Lady GaGa & Beyonce…
..
And then you win a Nobel Prize!

#86 Steerage Bilge on 11.26.16 at 11:54 pm

#84 Don Der on 11.26.16 at 11:45 pm

Man you bloggers are on fire tonight – flop’s links have been forwarded. Historian is bang on, except remember sir, Stalin, not Churchill defeated Hitler (25 million dead in the German Russo war). The yanks then became the new bad guy (i’m being polite).

But Turner Nation continues to impress. If you want your political/financial history for the last 25 years, and the next 25 years, adhere to Turner Nations final salvo:

“The devil is in the details: dozens of new laws each year. No debate.”

You are not part of the decision making process folks. Ever get the feeling you’ve been cheated?

No, not at all.

Steer your way through the ruins of the Altar and the Mall
Steer your way through the fables of Creation and the Fall
Steer your way past the Palaces that rise above the rot
Year by year
Month by month
Day by day
Thought by thought

#87 jsm on 11.26.16 at 11:58 pm

The last time the Republicans had control of congress, senate and the Presidency was in 2005/2006.

Not as romantic as 1928 and this nonsense about an “incoming President” but, meh, facts are facts and you guys are like any other investment house who will twist them to suit your narrative of the week.

#88 NoName on 11.27.16 at 12:16 am

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-rental-market-analysis-2016-11

With the biggest rental markets taking a beating, landlords are struggling to fill their units, and so rather than slashing asking rents, which would look bad on paper, they offer concessions, usually in form of one or two months of free rent.

#89 Spectacle on 11.27.16 at 12:17 am

An informed response to:

#48 Estrella on 11.26.16 at 7:34 pm
In other news, Justin Trudeau has just sympathised with Cuba on the loss of their great leader…the tyrant who was possibly linked to 70000 to 140000 missing or dead citizens and whom had over 600 assignation attempts.

Good job Justin, in one official post, our very young and unseasoned prime minister has just revealed that he knows very little about political history beyond what he remembers while touring with his father.

I will add that Trump, on the other hand, had a better response to the passing of cuba’s dictator.

*********response***********

You nailed it ! We’re having Libre Cuba , dark Cuban Rum & coke w lemon/lime, fresh Cuban cigars in honour of his passing.

The changes Mr. Trump knowingly rode in on, we can hope , will continue onward to Cuba. Cubans are mourning the treagic loss and destruction over the last 57 years by Castro. The breathy comment by a Idiot supreme Trudeau are an embarrassments to humanity.

Cubans, gave their lives for the idea of freedom, or trying to escape to America! Forget about the selfish Clinton created Syrian genocide mess. Trudaue is a complete idiot who understands nothing. An agenda -21 scammer.

#90 Andrew Woburn on 11.27.16 at 12:51 am

#23 Andrew Woburn
Buffet is being flippant.
America’s Civil Engineers are correct, many bridges there are in rough shape.
==================

I can’t say you’re wrong. I don’t argue with engineers.

What I am saying is:

1) that people with real skin in the game are not reacting as you would expect, and,

2) there is no consensus on how to pay for the fix and even Mr. I-can-make-a-deal will have a hard time dealing with this if his Congressional stablemates balk.

Should the bridges be fixed? Of course. Could money be found? They could spend a little less on bombs built to keep America safe and actually make Americans safer. Nah, that’s wimpy and unpatriotic. Only women and gutless liberals would do that.

I hate to think a disaster will have to happen before action is taken, but that seems to be how politics works.

#91 Pete on 11.27.16 at 12:56 am

69 Historian
——————–
You’ve got that right. The powers-that-be operate behind the scenes. They control what really happens in the world. Hitler, Churchill, Stalin, Castro, FDR, Bush, Trudeau, Parizeau, Clinton, Trump, Mulroney; they are all face-men, someone for the public to either rally behind or despise. If they are despised they will be removed so that the people believe that they have had a say in the affairs of the world.
Did you ever notice how so few choices are ever put before the people, either in the form of a plebiscite or even as an election issue. The politicians won’t even listen to a reporters questions unless the questions are approved before hand and the question won’t actually be answered at all unless it is deemed to be an answer that the people will want to hear. And then it is not binding anyway.
The whole system is illegitimate.

#92 conan on 11.27.16 at 1:17 am

RE #69 Historian on 11.26.16 at 9:01 pm

If one can go back in time then one must assume it would be a repeatable technological ability.

Step one is making a ton of money without anyone knowing that you can time travel.

Step two is meeting the monsters from history and redirecting them into other life choices. With money you can do this quite easily.

#93 Pete on 11.27.16 at 1:20 am

58 Doug Rowat
———————
You’re the guy who posted the stats about what percentage of blacks voted for Trump. Where did these stats come from? The MSM, as they do with everything else, is pretending to have all the answers. They also told you that Hillary would win by a landslide; they really believed it, they are such good liars that they convinced themselves. Lying is all they do.
I bet many blacks wouldn’t have thought it prudent to announce to an exit-pollster that he just voted for Trump, not with the level of violence seen over the course of the election. Most of them would have stayed mum on how they voted.
The racism is on your side in claiming that almost all of the blacks voted for the loser. Don’t let the lying media shape your impression of black Americans. In fact you shouldn’t even be thinking in terms of Black America, White America, Hispanic America at all. The media tells you to think this way and they always lie, remember.

#94 conan on 11.27.16 at 1:27 am

Pontificating on Castro…..

Was he perfect? Did he create death squads? Concentration camps? It is a miracle Cuba has any economy at all………. A Socialist that the US could not get “rid” of. (And that is being nice.)

“Castro made significant improvements to the education and healthcare” ….. nuff said.

He booted out organized crime and was not allowed to join the Global economy. Much worse out there to complain about if you ask me.

Those that left Cuba hated him. Those that stayed?

#95 Henry Morgan on 11.27.16 at 1:58 am

Trump should get the money for schools and bridges the ‘old fashioned’ Constitutional way, have the US Treasury print it for the benefit of all, not just a few globalist banksters.

#96 data on 11.27.16 at 4:10 am

What you are missing is the excess capacity already in the system

1. Avg US infra project is 10B-12B, 500B doesn’t go to far and if it’s private money, well not much will into the pockets of workers.

2. Places like Dubai/China/Eastern Europe/ are spending the same amounts pro rated daily and guess what, we have plenty of raw materials to around.

The main question or focus I suggest is what if he starts all these at once (if possible) that would be cluster hit, one time..he is a business man and I doubt he would bring in a sour deal. So all people are throwing around big numbers, in context think about standing in New York. 1 square block can easily be worth 35B-50B, he is planning to build 7-10 of those. Nothing really.

#97 Civil War - MASHDEX on 11.27.16 at 5:35 am

[…] Read more here:: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/11/26/civil-war/ […]

#98 Questions on 11.27.16 at 5:46 am

All this infrastructure, fiscal spend talk is making portfolio managers and traders horny, but as is shown true with many big governments in big countries, dispensing with these significant investments is much slower and efficient than the talk would suggest.

#99 drydock on 11.27.16 at 6:28 am

Beautiful orange tabby.

#100 Wrk.dover on 11.27.16 at 7:04 am

#61 Balmuto on 11.26.16 at 8:35 pm
“#3 Wrk.dover on 11.26.16 at 4:11 pm
An audit of the Fed will put the works of them in prison for about 500 years each, allowing new appointments in the suddenly vacant positions.

I understand Trump is pro audit too!”

What’s with you guys wanting to put everyone you don’t like in jail?

——-

O.K. give them death for treason if that is what turns your cranky crank , CrackPot

#101 Huge demand for Toronto RE a month before Xmas on 11.27.16 at 7:11 am

Castro fought American imperialism first of all. No wonder non-brainwashed-non-americans have a more favorable view of him. These idiots dancing in the streets of Miami don’t even realize their enemy died of old age in his bed, it’s what winners do, even when faced with 600 assassination attempts financed from ABROAD. They say they care about their ‘brothers’ in Cuba, but they do everything they can to keep that country under embargo ??

#102 David McDonald on 11.27.16 at 7:18 am

Doug, thanks for the post!

Trump has one additional advantage you didn’t mention. For years the economist Krugman has been suggesting that a government should be perceived as being irresponsible to create the expectation of future inflation and hence encourage business investment. Trump is Mr. Irresponsible; let the good times roll.

#103 Steven Rowlandson on 11.27.16 at 7:32 am

Infrastructure spending even if paid for with debt free printing press money would be a good step forward.
100 million plus Americans need work and place to live.
It is 1933 again in our time.

#104 Doug Rowat on 11.27.16 at 7:53 am

#42 Newcomer on 11.26.16 at 7:21 pm

Dough, you say, “So, Trump is probably stuck with a Fed that will work to curb inflation and be at odds with his aggressive economic expansion plans.”

You’ve got it backward. Trump’s criticism of the Fed is that they have been too dovish…so if the Fed is hawkish now, that fits well with Trump’s stated goals.

None of this is to say that Tump’s stated goals are coherent or that they will meet with acceptance or success.

He was criticizing her dovishness because he thought she was being political. He won’t want higher rates now that he’s actually in power.

Besides, he’s in real estate–cheap debt is great for him. He was calling for 100 bps cuts when everyone else was saying 25 during the Bernanke era.

But back in May he was also saying Yellen was “very capable”, so who can keep track anymore.

–Doug

#105 Doug Rowat on 11.27.16 at 8:20 am

#93 Pete on 11.27.16 at 1:20 am

The racism is on your side in claiming that almost all of the blacks voted for the loser.

Trump was endorsed by the KKK. Like Elsa says, let it go.

–Doug

#106 Wrk.dover on 11.27.16 at 8:22 am

I don’t try to bore, but to back up a recent point by the Great Garth about Maritime weather being as spread out as the difference between Timmins and Oakville…

Today the weather network shows you a big nasty about to wallop the Maritime’s.

Go to Environment Canada, Digby N.S…..50% chance of showers today, mix of sun and clouds tomorrow
currently 5.8 degrees.

Also, I ‘invested’ $20 total balancing four snow tires yesterday, same cost in GTA? No appointment, no wait either, 11:00 am on the last November Saturday….loving it here.

#107 Cash is King on 11.27.16 at 8:39 am

Sounds like the bridge to a united America is also structurally deficient.

#108 traderJim on 11.27.16 at 9:21 am

Definition of ‘winning an argument’: When your opponents are forced to jump through mental hoops to try and defend the acts of a brutal dictator.

Bonus win: When ‘social justice’ warriors have to defend a dictator who imprisoned anyone who criticized him, thereby losing all credibility (not to mention losing the ability to look in the mirror and not feel a little ill).

Even the left propaganda mouthpiece NYT doesn’t try to pretend Castro was anything other than a murderous megalomaniac. They at least are smart enough to see it’s a losing game.

His own daughter calls him a tyrant, and had to escape the country, lol.

#109 traderJim on 11.27.16 at 9:29 am

#94 ‘Those that stayed?”

Those that stayed are not allowed to leave, is that news to you? Have you not heard of or seen the photos of people risking their lives on home made rafts to try to escape?

What colour is the moon in your world Conan?

I have stayed with Cubans and spoken to them privately. Most of them dream of being able to kill Fidel with their own hands.

But since that is impossible, they dream merely of being able to get a bottle of aspirin from the supposedly incredible health care system. Try visiting a hospital there as I have, and see the truth.

yes most Cubans can read, what a great achievement, too bad so many books are banned and they have almost no access to the internet.

Most countries achieved far better results without the murder, political prosecution, imprisonment and impoverishment of their citizens.

#110 traderJim on 11.27.16 at 9:33 am

definition of ‘exploitation’: Cuba hires out it’s doctors to foreign countries (like Venezuela and Portugal) and charges market salaries for them while paying the doctors themselves a mere pittance.

Guess Fidel has to earn foreign currency to add another Rolex to his collection.

#111 Herb on 11.27.16 at 9:52 am

With regard to the late Fidel Castro, some of the eminent historians on this board might wish to review a simple timeline to remind themselves what this Castro was all about, for instance, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Cuban_Revolution . (The link there to Batista also is instructive.)

The problem was that Castro proceeded to liberate Cuba from the Mafia and other US corporations, and that was unforgivable. Faced with the resulting economic blockade by the USA, he turned to the Soviet Union, and became a Cold War ideological pariah. He did, however, survive decades of attempted regime change by the USA, so he couldn’t have been all bad for Cubans.

Regardless of its founder’s bad end, the Dr. Goebbel School of Propaganda continues to flourish in North America.

#112 Debt Bomb on 11.27.16 at 9:59 am

When does too much debt matter?

Bush Jr. doubled debt from 4 to 8 trillion. Obama doubled debt from 8 to over 16 trillion. What will Trump do … 32 trillion?

Japan over spent on useless infrastructure, bridges to no where. Will the US follow suit?

Questions, questions.

#113 jess on 11.27.16 at 10:02 am

infrastructure and migrant workers

EU court entertained bogus case on welfare rights –
The Case That Never Was

“An international recruitment company is taken to court by one of its workers. Referred to the European Court of Justice, the outcome could change EU labour law for millions of people. The only problem? The worker ‘taking’ the case knows nothing about it.

http://www.rte.ie/radio1/doconone/2015/1204/751206-the-case-that-never-was/

The case involved a Polish man, Bogdan Chain, a Dublin-based international recruitment company, a Belgian legal firm, and two Cypriot-based lawyers

http://www.tribunemagazine.org/2015/12/bogus-social-dumping-case/
============================
Zembla: Down the drain
Published time: 27 Nov, 2016 01:00
Edited time: 27 Nov, 2016 06:44
https://www.rt.com/shows/documentary/335477-chip-labor-temporary-job/

https://euobserver.com/investigations/131569
=========================
Atlanco Rimec Group, O’Shea,
the “low profile private equity baron,”
In August 2015, Anna-Lena Norberg reported to the Stoppafusket website that the Atlanco business had re-formed as Oradeo.

In August 2015, Anna-Lena Norberg reported to the Stoppafusket website that the Atlanco business had re-formed as Oradeo.

http://www.stoppafusket.se/2015/08/18/oradeo-instead-of-atlanco-rimec/

Atlanco Rimec is infamous for not paying taxes and social security contributions for their workers. The company is also infamous for demanding large sums from the workers for ”service” as accommodation, insurance and transportation etc. To be able to get a job at Atlanco Rimec, the workers were forced to sign papers that they ordered this “service”. In 2012, the “service part” of Atlanco Rimec transferred to a new company: Atop Logistic. It is to Atop Logistic where the large deductions from the workers’ wages from Oradeo and Atlanco has gone.

#114 Penny Henny on 11.27.16 at 10:14 am

The Republicans hold the White House, Senate and House of Representatives—the last time an incoming Republican president was so fortunate was 1928. The US economy is also booming (as much as a post–credit crisis economy can boom) and markets are at all-time highs (Dow 19,000, folks). -Doug

Hmmmm. Same as 1928. So that means we have a year until the crash?

#115 isuckless on 11.27.16 at 10:23 am

https://hbr.org/2016/11/what-so-many-people-dont-get-about-the-u-s-working-class

#116 Penny Henny on 11.27.16 at 10:45 am

88% of blacks didn’t vote for him, but they’ve never really mattered, right?
–Doug

One persons vote counted the same as another persons vote.
black, white, orange or green.

#117 carstingfrat on 11.27.16 at 11:10 am

#94 conan on 11.27.16 at 1:27 am

Pontificating on Castro…..

Was he perfect? Did he create death squads? Concentration camps? It is a miracle Cuba has any economy at all………. A Socialist that the US could not get “rid” of. (And that is being nice.)

“Castro made significant improvements to the education and healthcare” ….. nuff said. ”

Alot of naive punters on here tonight….the US let Castro stay in power, as his stable level of incompetence ensured geopolitcial stability in the region….same reason they are doing nothing about T2…

#118 the Jaguar on 11.27.16 at 11:23 am

The Jaguar is boycotting Garth for acting mean about cats, but since Doug has posted a photo of one I can post here.
#101 – Yes, Fidel brought his country out of miserable poverty, gave his countrymen literacy and education, healthcare, and pride in their indentify. In the same way that the election of Trump shocked many, we will now see the world at Fidel’s funeral services. Russia, China, Europe, Canada, Africa, Latin America. The USA will have to look at themselves in the mirror yet again this month. Who was this man they demonized for so many years? Why has the world arrived to pay their respects? Because a man like Fidel only comes along every hundred years or so…that’s why.
Agree with your comments on Trump, Doug. The special snowflakes need to acknowledge that he is their president and stop their whinning and protesting. Get behind your president. He may not be perfect, but he is all you have got and he is picking the best people to do the job, even if they did not previously support him. The media will need to wrap their heads around it as well. If only they didn’t take their marching orders from others.

p.s. Go Redblacks Go!!

#119 SWL1976 on 11.27.16 at 11:24 am

#69 Historian – You nailed it with that post

It’s always nice to find pearls of wisdom when sifting through the comments section

Doug,

Good post, I enjoyed the read and sensed you are getting a little closer to what some here in the stearage section here have been pointing at, but are still having a hard time admitting to some very fundamental problems. Like for example; I was hoping that you were going to tackle some of what #20 WaitingOnTheWorldToChange had to say

Anyways, no one has all the answers and most of are are just trying to navigate this world of lies and decite the best we can.

I would like to once again thank Garth and all those here who contribute to making this site a very worthwhile read 7 days a week

#120 carstingfrat on 11.27.16 at 11:44 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/canada-investment-advisers-face-grim-future/article33051473/

Garth don’t worry, financial blogging is the future….u r a visionary!

#121 Sideshow Rob on 11.27.16 at 11:47 am

The world is discovering what thinking Canadians have always known…our current prime minister is a complete moron.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/twitter-goes-nuts-over-canadian-pms-castro-comments/ar-AAkNFVJ?li=BBnb7Kz

#122 TurnerNation on 11.27.16 at 11:49 am

Ace G I don’t know if you are some kind of gatekeeper for thought control or just ignoring capitalist principles like Economies of Scale.

Let’s says there is 5km of rural road with 20 houses on it. Each house must pay x toward its upkeep.

Then, 5k of urban highway with 50,000 daily users. Each must pay z for upkeep. Not much.

And calculate for us how much gas is bought daily in GTA – 50% of it is taxation. Going to ..?

– With upcoming fiction taxes like “Carbon taxes” on natural gas, gasoline, Canadians will be shivering in sweaters in their condo blocs this winter. While our elites luxuriate on private isles in the sea. Thanks, taxpayers.

#123 Anti-CON on 11.27.16 at 11:52 am

HEY hypocrite CONs crying about T2 comments , do any of you buy products made in China? China is 1000× worse then Castro Cuba. What’s that you hypocrites? What about US hypocrisy? No trade with Cuba but trade with China? Lol you CON hypocrites

#124 Stanley on 11.27.16 at 11:53 am

You think Wall is in check now? hahaha

#125 TurnerNation on 11.27.16 at 11:59 am

I’m a SJW (Social Justice Worrier).

#126 jess on 11.27.16 at 12:15 pm

http://www.politico.eu/list/politico-28/viktor-orban/

=======

Second attempt to form Iceland government fails

By EUOBSERVER
24. Nov, 09:14

Coalition talks between five centre-left parties in Iceland, led by the Left-Green Movement, have broken down, national broadcaster RUV reports. Earlier efforts by the conservative Independent Party, that emerged as the biggest after the election on 29 October, also failed. The third-placed Pirate party may now be offered a chance.

https://euobserver.com/tickers/136021

#127 common sense on 11.27.16 at 12:39 pm

#108 Trader Jim

Good points on Fidel and Cuba…I too travel there frequently and see the good and the bad, however…

Who left a worse mark on the world? Fidel or George W. ?

Fidel was like a kindly kindergarten teacher compared to the wrath W. and his team left on the middle east, Europe, etc that will continue for decades…

#128 Context on 11.27.16 at 12:41 pm

How many knew that one man from Toronto in Cuba was a casino boss and that the young Frank Sinatra owned a piece of three casinos.

#129 Andrew t on 11.27.16 at 12:44 pm

#91 Pete on 11.27.16 at 12:56 am
69 Historian
——————–
You’ve got that right. The powers-that-be operate behind the scenes. They control what really happens in the world. Hitler, Churchill, Stalin, Castro, FDR, Bush, Trudeau, Parizeau, Clinton, Trump, Mulroney; they are all face-men, someone for the public to either rally behind or despise. If they are despised they will be removed so that the people believe that they have had a say in the affairs of the world.
Did you ever notice how so few choices are ever put before the people, either in the form of a plebiscite or even as an election issue. The politicians won’t even listen to a reporters questions unless the questions are approved before hand and the question won’t actually be answered at all unless it is deemed to be an answer that the people will want to hear. And then it is not binding anyway.
The whole system is illegitimate.


It all makes sense now! There’s no point in taking responsibility for my personal choices when the vast conspiracy controls everything. Thanks random anonymous commenter, for being woke enough to stand up to reality and kick it in the nuts.

#130 InvestorsFriend on 11.27.16 at 12:52 pm

There is no “We”. You’re on your own!

#73 Toronto Crushes the 905!! on 11.26.16 at 9:33 pm said:

If you live in Milton or Ajax or Newcastle or Barrie or Burlington, you are a parasite on the 416. You are a welfare bum, sponging off the wealth we have created.

***************************************
Mr. Toronto does not sound like a nice neighbour.

But once again we see this insistence to divide into “we” versus “them”.

This comes from deep tribal instincts dating back thousands of years when your little band was “we” and every other tribe tended to be an enemy or at least “them”.

Tribalism was used by Trump to win. “I’m with “you” (and not “them”)

Tribalism is the reason sports teams are popular.

And yes our economy has a god degree of socialism and “we” in it. But if YOU want to get ahead and get into the 1% or even the 20%, YOU have to work at it. There is no “we” to help you.

Economically there is no team Toronto versus team 905.

Individuals and companies compete. Countries, provinces and Cities do not compete as some sort of team where each resident wins as the City or country wins.

If YOU want to win, you are on your own.

But yes, of course I favor Toll Roads, user pay. But spitting venom at your neighbours is uncalled for.

#131 Context on 11.27.16 at 1:14 pm

All this complaining about Cuba with its corruption makes me laugh. One only has to look at Toronto decades ago and its much worse now with more to come out when the bubble blows. There was a Trust Company on Bay Street being founded by the Dunes Hotel and Casino pumping out $millions in insured NHA mortgages. I knew the point man in Toronto for Morris Shenker who owned the Dunes on behalf of the Teamsters Union. In fact knew a girl who worked there who confirmed this all, so don’t worry about Cuba but just look in your own backyard.

#132 JimH on 11.27.16 at 1:15 pm

Doug;
You write, “As a portfolio manager, I can’t help but be pleased with Trump’s focus here. Infrastructure spending is clearly needed, will likely be economically stimulative, boost corporate profits and be positive for many cyclical equities. So, hopefully, this common political ground does exist.”
===============================
Have you given serious study to Trump’s “plan” and the alternative supported by the Democrats?

Trump is NOT advocating new infrastructure spending! What he is advocating is a massive tax break for those undertaking infrastructure projects; mostly those already planned. His plan is not at all going to produce new infrastructure spending; it will only result in much greater infrastructure project profitability, and, most of the projects under his “plan” are already in place and are ongoing! More dollars into coffers of the one-percenters!

The Dems advocate a borrow and spend approach, but in fact BOTH plans would result in big deficits; only the Dems plan would actually result in widespread new infrastructure projects of any significance!

#133 GFD on 11.27.16 at 1:17 pm

I wouldn’t give our idiot PM too much credit for that Castro speech. These brain farts of Gerald Budds who must have been diagnosed with brain cancer. . . . . in his rectum. The kid is looking to be the first when Raul gives him average on the ocean for this beautiful gesture!

#134 Lana on 11.27.16 at 1:25 pm

“Steer your way through the ruins of the Altar and the Mall
Steer your way through the fables of Creation and the Fall
Steer your way past the Palaces that rise above the rot
Year by year
Month by month
Day by day
Thought by thought”

I love this! Did you compose this, Steer?

Re: paying a toll to use the Gardiner Expressway

I support this idea. I live in Waterloo and stopped driving my car to Toronto. It’s the bus for me. (Train would be preferred, but we have lousy service to Toronto).

However, I hope buses are exempt from the toll fees, because the cost will be borne by the passengers.

#135 GFD on 11.27.16 at 1:29 pm

#77 I hate CONservatives on 11.26.16 at 9:56 pm

Crybully pampered, protected, hyper-triggered homogenized loser who mistakenly thinks he is forever on the winning side of history, completely freaked out, practically wetting himself with horror from what’s coming after US election, desperately seeking hugs, emotional trauma counseling, “primal scream” sessions, and all other expressions of lunacy. Cry, bully cry. Crybully!

#136 hope & ruin on 11.27.16 at 1:32 pm

Calexit can’t happen. A state can’t unilaterally secede from the US, even if a state voted to leave the result has no legal standing. Plus you have the small issue of going up against the US military. Texas v White 1869.

#137 Steerage Bilge on 11.27.16 at 1:52 pm

#134 Lana on 11.27.16 at 1:25 pm

“Steer your way through the ruins of the Altar and the Mall
Steer your way through the fables of Creation and the Fall
Steer your way past the Palaces that rise above the rot
Year by year
Month by month
Day by day
Thought by thought”

I love this! Did you compose this, Steer?

Re: paying a toll to use the Gardiner Expressway

I support this idea. I live in Waterloo and stopped driving my car to Toronto. It’s the bus for me. (Train would be preferred, but we have lousy service to Toronto).

However, I hope buses are exempt from the toll fees, because the cost will be borne by the passengers.

If only!.. no, no those would be the lovely words of the late Leonard Cohen… what a gem of a human.

#138 TRT on 11.27.16 at 1:54 pm

All that Illegal immigrants have to do is to reach California and they won’t be deported. I’m sure the word is getting out.

Can’t believe that the democrats would allow for this. No wonder they have 11 million illegals in the USA. Why go through legal channels when state sponsors this.

#139 traderJim on 11.27.16 at 1:57 pm

#127 common sense

GW Bush is the worst President of modern times, no argument there.

Is he responsible for more deaths than Castro? Probably.

Not to excuse his incompetence and war-mongering ways, but I believe that Bush was acting on the advice of people like Wolfowitz, who apparently believed you could bomb people into democracy.

That idea is incredibly stupid of course, but the analogy to a dictator doesn’t quite hold. I think in his simple minded way Bush actually thought he might improve things in the Mid east.

Waging war on your own people is a little different than waging war in a developing nation in the naive hope you can force democracy onto people. (Both inexcusable of course).

I’m almost as surprised at those on the left (even Cher!) who are recognizing Fidel as a murderous tyrant as I am by those lefty dinosaurs who come out to defend him.

It would be pretty easy to throw Fidel under the bus and claim he wasn’t a true Marxist, you know the usual BS.

But no, some pseudo intellectuals still actually stand up in favour of a dictator. Interesting. They must be emotionally invested in the label or the myth or something.

‘But Hitler was worse than Castro, so Castro’s good’.

Once again, I am happy to be opposed to all dictators, no matter the label. Pinochet, Stalin, Mussolini, Hitler, Castro, Chavez etc etc. All pure evil.

I hope the left still continues to idolize Castro and other totalitarians. Just makes clearer every day who is on the right side of things.

Love the chant Cubans have come up with for their ‘beloved’ leaders:

“Raul tirano, vete con tu hermano”

#140 Shawn on 11.27.16 at 2:08 pm

The S&P500 is going to quickly run to 3000. Most retail investors will still be cautiously watching from the sidelines…

#141 InvestorsFriend on 11.27.16 at 2:12 pm

Buffett IS Right

#23 Andrew Woburn on 11.26.16 at 5:41 pm said:

Perhaps Buffet is right. You never ask the barber/engineer if you need a haircut/new bridge.

****************************************

Buffett is one of the smartest economists in history. (And, yes, he does have a masters in economics and has been writing about the economy, moistly micro but also macro for over 60 years.)

His true genius will only be more widely acknowledged after his death.

Rule Number 1: Always assume that Buffett is correct

Rule Number 2: Don’t forget rule number one.

#142 Context on 11.27.16 at 2:12 pm

#129 Andrew t:- Your learning well as even JFK caved in to the cartel in 1960. There was a meeting and JFK was told he will never be President unless you do what we say because we control the Electoral College vote. We want you to have LBJ on the election ticket as your Vice President which was a trap and the rest is history. He did as he was told much to the shock of his party and his family members.

#143 Metaxa on 11.27.16 at 2:37 pm

One persons vote counted the same as another persons vote.
black, white, orange or green.

Couldn’t tell you if its true or not but look up fractional vote counting in the USA. Seems some districts votes aren’t as “wholesome” as others.

My brother in law spent many years in Cuba helping them get soybeans going, sort of an agricultural consultancy gig. He was there for months at a time, lived and worked with the folks daily. From the top political boys to the people in the fields pulling weeds.

I’m not certain what his exact thoughts on current events in Cuba would be but I do know that they would be contrary to what most of you experts are pontificating about.

But, by all means, keep on freely expressing your thoughts. It is really helpful in deciding who holds opinions and knowledge worth reading and acting upon.

#144 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.27.16 at 2:45 pm

The Dems advocate a borrow and spend approach, but in fact BOTH plans would result in big deficits; only the Dems plan would actually result in widespread new infrastructure projects of any significance

Yeah but the Dems are toothless that’s why we like Trump’s plan.

#145 TurnerNation on 11.27.16 at 3:33 pm

Not a huge G&R fan but they are solid. As this is a boomer and GenX music blog: Civil War live.

(Kind of this generation’s Blk Sabbath: War pigs anthem.

” I don’t need your civil war”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyOXW7UQV00

#146 OttawaMike on 11.27.16 at 3:57 pm

Here is a great synopsis of the life and times of Fidel(Bet Raul’s happy he is no longer playing second Fidel)

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/fidel-castro-en/article117186483.html

#147 OttawaMike on 11.27.16 at 4:00 pm

Commie Herbie might particularly want to read that Miami Herald piece.

#148 Context on 11.27.16 at 4:00 pm

#138 traderJim:- In your list of dictators why did you give Harper a free pass?