Desperado

mask

Sigh. Another day. Another record high. The Trump rally for US equities has closed out its third consecutive week of giddy gains, as investors continue to cross the street from the Bond Market to the Stock Market. On one side, tears. On the other, tingles.

As detailed here, the bond rout is based on expectations of big spending, big tax cuts, big deficits, big profits and big inflation over the next few years. So, bond prices fall and yields surge. US Treasuries have added over half a point (yuge), Canadian government five-bangers have all but doubled since July, and mortgages have risen in sympathy.

The Fed will increase in three weeks, and more to come in 2017.

But what about Canada? Is it a slam dunk rates will rise in this country?

Sadly, not. The next rate change date in this frosty land comes December 7th. Nobody expects any move then. But look out for what might happen March 1st, April 12th or May 24th (bring beer). On those rate-review dates, a growing number of economists believe, our central bank could throw in the towel and admit the country’s somewhat pooched by lowering rates from a pathetic 0.5% to a tragic 0.25%.

Why?

As our tat-wearing, weed-smoking, shirt-doffing hotty leader knows, it’s all about stimulus. In this case, it’s monetary – dropping rates as an attempt to kickstart an ailing economy. If it happens, it would be an admission that (by then) almost two years of T2 governance, higher deficits, more spending and promises to create oodles of jobs through deficit-financed infrastructure programs, failed. It was just words.

Economic growth in 2016 will be 1%, if we’re lucky. (Recently the US has been cruising along at three times that.) Our trade deficit is epic. A record. The dollar’s mired below 75 cents US. Job creation has been erratic and inconsistent. But the real reason you might see a rate cut (some believe) within the next six months is, of course, Trump.

The mercurial president-elect has already said he will trash the TPP trade deal on Day One of his deification. During the election campaign he also derided NAFTA, and has yet to spell out the way America will insist it be rewritten to favour domestic workers. In any case, this much is clear: it won’t be a better deal for Canada. And until the details are known, this causes uncertainty – which hurts business investment. That costs growth and jobs.

The Bank of Canada was really counting on a pickup in capital spending to get things firing again in 2017, especially since it’s pretty certain real estate is going down. Given the combination of the Moister Street Test, the creep in mortgage rates (which will occur whatever the central bank ends up doing) and a weak labour market, housing won’t be bailing us out. Remember, house lust accounts for about 15% of the country’s total economy (more than oil and gas, more than manufacturing), so when real estate cools, so does everything else.

TD now says there’s a 40% chance our bank will cut its key rate once in 2017. Capital Economics is in the same camp. Ditto CIBC. Desjardins says to expect, “…tighter financial conditions here in Canada, including the housing market, which was already subject to tougher macro-prudential regulations.”

So what does this mean?

First, fixed-term mortgages are not financed according to the central bank’s key rate, but rather in the bond market. There yields have been rising since the last US election results came streaming in. So the recent 30-bip jump in home loan costs at RBC are a good indication of what lies ahead.

Second, a Bank of Canada rate nip is not good news. These guys only chop when all else has failed, and already rates are in the ditch. Any move lower by the Bank of Canada, when the Fed is tightening and the US expanding, will be seen as a fail. Desperation.

So, third, the dollar will be a certain casualty as the spread widens between US and Canadian rates. If you think 73 cents is embarrassing, just wait. And be so thankful you followed this blog’s long-standing advice to have 20% of your portfolio in US$-denominated securities, and keep maple to a minority (17%) of your growth assets. Hopefully you also took the suggestion, when the loonie was above par and houses in Phoenix were selling at a 70% discount, to buy one or two.

Such gifts are gone, now that America will be Great Again.

166 comments ↓

#1 Randy Cross on 11.25.16 at 6:17 pm

How much for the dog ?

#2 ROCKYLAL on 11.25.16 at 6:22 pm

Doesn’t look good for the home team!

#3 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.25.16 at 6:24 pm

OAK BAY, VICTORIA, SAANICH EAST LEAD THE AREA’S SALES SLOWDOWN

Year-over-year in October, sales of detached houses were down significantly in three of Greater Victoria’s most expensive areas: – 25% in Oak Bay, – 16% in Victoria and – 18% in Saanich East.

It’s probably shocking and alarming to many that this happened before the (huge) mortgage rule changes (designed to slow sales and bring prices down) had time to take effect.

In the region’s outlying other areas, sales tanked 18% year-over-year and a dramatic 41% month-over-month. More signs of a changing market.

Sales of detached houses have tanked 48% across Greater Victoria since April and the market correction warning sign is flashing red.

First sales fall, then prices.

This is how it went down in cities all over the world that have had extremely overvalued (bubbly) housing markets. Thousands of cities in many countries – Japan, Ireland, Spain, Greece, the US, etc. – had Victoria-style housing bubbles (or smaller) and experienced major price corrections/crashes.

Nobody predicted anything but higher prices in those cities, but the inevitable outcome of a housing bubble – a major correction/crash – was never in doubt by Mr. Market and quite obvious to those who have gone back and studied these markets.

Bubbles never end happy.

#4 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.25.16 at 6:26 pm

#5 VREU Triggered (yesterday)

“… and your predictions of a collapse around the corner in Victoria were just fairy tales.
What can you possibly revert to now to explain the situation…”

Quote? Of course not. I have not stated a specific month for the beginning of falling prices or a specific percent of price decline in any post.

You’ve said the same thing over and over for months. Each time I ask you to produce a quote to back what you claim I’ve said, you drop the subject under the current name, wait some time and then post the same BS under another name.

Again, my message has been consistent since March/April – prices will begin to fall again in Victoria and that can happen at any time. With sales of detached houses falling approx. 50% since April, it’s easy to argue that the market correction process has already begun in Victoria.

I’ve also said that Victoria’s housing market will go through a deep, multi-year correction that will teach many locals that buying a house always comes with dangerous financial risk.

It must be frustrating that you can’t prove that you’re not a realtor. Each time you write false information and get busted you make all realtors look less credible.

I encourage you to keep doing this. It’s entertaining and I’m sure others appreciate the laugh.

#5 Johnny D on 11.25.16 at 6:29 pm

Biggest risk to the Canadian economy is still the Trudeau government. Playing games with pipeline approvals is getting a bit old. There are lots of people wondering if they’ll have jobs in the near future.

#6 Self Directed >> Rate UPDATE on 11.25.16 at 6:29 pm

First National just raised it’s fixed rates again on Wednesday.. another 10 points.

https://www.firstnational.ca/residential/mortgage-resources/mortgage-rates

FN 5 Year fixed is now 2.79%. TD promotional 5 Year fixed sits at 2.84%.

I like to compare the difference between a Mortgage Bank and a Popular Big Bank.

#7 Smoking Man on 11.25.16 at 6:34 pm

To hammered to read what Garth wrote.

Go news I deleted LinkedIn on my phone.. To god damn dangerous.. While I’m a nobody.

If my book ever took off… I’m slaying these suck up teet sucking zombies.. The temptation to murder with words the likes of Richard Branson.. You have no idea how I want to bitch slap the a fellow dyslexic.

There can only be one.

Help me find my voices.. Give me the power.

Buy the God damn book. Tell the world..

#8 The real Kip on 11.25.16 at 6:37 pm

I think Poloz and Morneau will be happy if Yellen and company bump up by .25%. They will do nothing and watch the Canadian dollar drop, fix it by doing nothing.

#9 MF on 11.25.16 at 6:41 pm

Here we go again with the Bank of Canada. Let’s hope they don’t cut so everyone’s CPD doesn’t get creamed again. I’m waiting to at least break even so i can trade it away forever. Someone tell me what the last rate cuts did please?

T2’s “stimulus” was a failure from the start, and everyone who is smart knew it. Wasted debt on worthlessness. He’s an embarrassment. But hey maybe we will get a useless seat on the worthless United Nothing.

Who will be the Trump in Canada? I guess we will see.

MF

#10 Smoking Man on 11.25.16 at 6:42 pm

TD now says there’s a 40% chance our bank will cut its key rate once in 2017. —Garth

When smoking man says 100 percent chance boc will cut dec 7th what else do I have to say.

A Robin landed on my fence.. Told it to bet accordingly..

Shit I do for dwarfs.. I like dwarfs.. Covered in the book.

#11 I don't know! on 11.25.16 at 6:44 pm

One thing is sure, houses in TO will continue to rise in cost.

#12 common sense on 11.25.16 at 6:46 pm

Any chance we can have audio of “Taps” playing on posts like these?

#13 Debtslavecreator on 11.25.16 at 6:48 pm

And so continues the steady slide into the reality that we are nothing but a third world nation masquerading as a first world country
Our aptly named loonie will accurately reflect its inherent “worth”
At least you’ll be able to use it to wipe your bum and heat your house when your pensions and meagre take home pay (or what’s left of it after the ongoing onslaught of wild tax and fee increases) can’t buy you much at the store
Oh wait maybe you won’t if JT pulls a Modi and declares all 50s and 100s worthless to “fight ” the problems 99.8 % of everyday people have nothing to do with
Governments are broke
Within 10 years most will see interest charges consume more than 50% of tax revenues and no amount of tax will help -all these extra charges will do is further destroy the economy which will further drop tax revenues and in and on

#14 RentYVR on 11.25.16 at 6:50 pm

Wohoo, Garth has finally joined the no-rate hike for Canada team! We’re going to go negative before we start moving up again. But yes, mortgage rates for us schmoes will go up regardless..

#15 Damifino on 11.25.16 at 6:52 pm

Such gifts are gone.
—————————-

Gold may be finished… but on the brighter side, there’s still frankincense and myrrh.

#16 Context on 11.25.16 at 6:56 pm

The caption is scary which represents the Jaguar or the Aztec Sun God. The 5th Sun was over on December 21, 2012 and secret ceremonies are held today by dark skinned Aztecs awaiting the 6th Sun. The above mask is worn and dancing occurs around a circle with an alter placed in the center. The men circle counter clock wise representing the Sun and the women clockwise representing the Moon with a drum beating and incense burning on the alter in the center. The Sun stone indicates the world time stopped on December 21, 2012 and the same held true with the Mayans.

#17 Greater Fool Grammar Nazi on 11.25.16 at 6:56 pm

“The mercurial president-elect has already said he will trash the TPP trade deal on Day One of his deification.”

Umm, Garth, I think you meant “defecation”.

You’re welcome.

#18 MF on 11.25.16 at 6:56 pm

Parents (millions in the market and paid off home worth a mil in Thornhill which they bought in 1993 with no mortgage for 275k) went to a presentation from BMO Nesbitt Burns last night. Topic was about Brexit and Trump and the changing economic and political landscape worldwide.

Results: US will grow, rates are going up, throwing away TPP and renegotiated NAFTA a slight positive for Canada, inflation projected upward. Markets up. All good things.

Dad wanted Hillary and was upset during the election. Mom agreed then told me in secret she was pleased. She was also happy that the presentation was positive so dad could hear it.

I thought Trump would not get any female supporters?

MF

#19 Eager Beaver on 11.25.16 at 6:57 pm

Best time to load on Maple preferred etfs

When Greenback takes a dive, and it will, switch to USD Preffered keep doing that and long term this is the best strategy

Make natural currency swings work for you

#20 What can I say... on 11.25.16 at 7:05 pm

…other than, right on.

The sad thing about what you say, is that our economy is looking grim with nothing on the horizon to give it hope with the inevitable decline of RE in Canada.

Job creation sputtering. GDP sputtering and projected to be lower than last year. Oil hopes delayed until 3rd Qtr 2017.

If Trump goes protectionist, we will go from sputtering to recession and that is something that will hurt Canada for many years to come. Here’s hoping Trump reverses that as well.

Nicely said. You laid it all out on the line.

bsant

#21 Smoking Man on 11.25.16 at 7:05 pm

Too writers out there in Lala land.

I’m old well past the prime of hitting blades of the ceiling fan.

Chapter 1

Write like you give no shit.. Never care what others might judge you with. Screw them.

We have one voice one life.. Get it out there. Wrong or right.. Don’t matter.. Doing it is all that counts.

Living in fear…. Shit address to live on.

I live on crazy street… In longbranch.

Heaven for me.

Nothing else matters

https://youtu.be/Tj75Arhq5ho

#22 Freedom First on 11.25.16 at 7:11 pm

Yes. Buying the U.S.$ when it was above par was a treat. Not to be missed when Canadians get that opportunity.

Buying the U.S.$ with Canadian$ is not something I would do at this time.

Because

I am pi$$ poor at market timing. I just want to miss buying anything at the top or near top. It’s just as dangerous as trying to sell anything at the peak or near peak. Much higher is always good enough for me.

Glad I have a small ego, live by Principles, and keep my emotions in check while at the same time avoiding the emotions of others.

I believe I was given a brain so I could use it to think with. Keeps me from arguing with people face to face who aren’t using theirs. My peace of mind is priceless. Big part of keeping my Freedom First lifestyle in harmony and balance.

#23 InvestorsFriend on 11.25.16 at 7:11 pm

U.S. houses circa 2009 were a generational opportunity

Garth said: “Hopefully you also took the suggestion, when the loonie was above par and houses in Phoenix were selling at a 70% discount, to buy one or two.”

******************************************
A senior member of my family who was spending 6 weeks or more in Florida each year swooped in and bought low at that time. A “short-sale” at about a 50% discount. Four bedrooms, golf-course community. Tampa suburb.

Back then the Canadian dollar was also around par.

It was absolutely the opportunity of life time. Not for everyone since owning a house in the U.S. is inconvenient and just not possible for most people. But for snowbirds: Wow what an opportunity!

And this blog and some commenters said so repeatedly at the time.

And others (I think they were technical analysts) said no, U.S. house prices will continue to fall and all that U.S. dollar printing will insure the Canadian dollar stays well above par.

For them, opportunity missed.

#24 Harbour on 11.25.16 at 7:12 pm

testing testing… maybe that will work as a refresh and i’ll see something besides no comments

#25 Polls R Phake on 11.25.16 at 7:13 pm

GLEXIT – Global Exit

Get used to this new term. You have to ask yourself – is the population of the entire world that dumb? Or is there something to this global anti-corporate anti-govt tirade?

Think about that statement.

#26 Harbour on 11.25.16 at 7:14 pm

yup, that’s what has to do to refresh this blog… post!!

#27 Smoking Man on 11.25.16 at 7:24 pm

DELETED

#28 Victoria visit on 11.25.16 at 7:24 pm

I posted this at the very end of yesterday so most dogs did not see it.

I just got home after spending the last 6 weeks in Victoria looking at real estate. Of all the properties I looked at over the six weeks not one sold. I looked at many properties in James Bay and Fairfield priced from 799,000 to 1.5 million and a few over 2.5 million. I spoke to two agents that both told me prices have gone past what people can pay. One asked me what my schedule was for my move from the Okanagan to Victoria and I told him I am in no hurry. He said that he thinks if I wait about a year I will save myself about 2 hundred grand over what is being offered now. So he thinks James Bay and Fairfield million dollar homes will be in the 800 thou range by this time next year. I think I will take his advice .

#29 Ogopogo on 11.25.16 at 7:25 pm

Karma is a she-K9:

“Calgary landlords facing ‘grim’ times as almost 40% of rental properties sit empty”

Greedy, arrogant, rapacious landlords now choking on humble pie.

Where are all the Calgary bulls(hitters) who just two short years ago were bragging and chest-thumping about how “it’s different here”? Truck nutz shrivelling yet?

C’mon hot shots, speak up!

http://business.financialpost.com/news/property-post/calgary-landlords-facing-grim-times-as-almost-40-of-rental-properties-sit-empty?__lsa=0e86-c124

#30 Andrew Woburn on 11.25.16 at 7:25 pm

About all those jobs that The Donald is going to bring back from China —

“Boston Consulting Group reports that it costs barely $8 an hour to use a robot for spot welding in the auto industry, compared to $25 for a worker—and the gap is only going to widen. More generally, the “job intensity” of America’s manufacturing industries—and especially its best-paying advanced ones—is only going to decline. In 1980 it took 25 jobs to generate $1 million in manufacturing output in the U.S. Today it takes five jobs.”

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2016/11/18/it-wont-be-easy-to-bring-back-millions-of-manufacturing-jobs/

#31 For those about to flop... on 11.25.16 at 7:26 pm

defecation…the discharge of feces from the body.

deification…worship or regard someone as a god.

Pat, I would like to buy a vowel…

M42BC

#32 CL on 11.25.16 at 7:29 pm

I agree about buying maple, but what’s wrong with maple companies with US operations and/or some kind of revenue exposure to it? And who present financial reports in USD as a result of this? I do not buy on US markets for example but most every equity I’ve got has USD exposure in terms of revenues and since Trump my portfolio has reflected exactly what you’re saying has been happening but I’ve not been on the downside of this as a result, I believe, of USD exposure in my chosen equities.

I have a question for,you though, with all,of this doom and gloom which, sadly, I agree with, can or will Canada experience a potential currency crisis for example? Bankruptcy? I mean are we an Argentina or could we be?

#33 Smoking Man on 11.25.16 at 7:29 pm

To my librarls. Yes I hate you

https://youtu.be/JSUIQgEVDM4

#34 Mariano on 11.25.16 at 7:43 pm

It so easy to forecast a hundred things, and then a few become true, and then you tell people “I told you so!” later on…

There are many things that you have forecasted, and have never turned up.

No one can forecast the future, not even you.

#35 Andrew Woburn on 11.25.16 at 7:44 pm

There’s a new robo-adviser aimed at retired people instead of millennials. Hopefully it also knows how to get the best deal on Depends.

“We think seniors are the most exciting market in financial services today,” Mr. Stinchcombe said. “We have seen the role that technology can play in helping today’s retirees live the independent, fulfilling lives they deserve.”

If his robots are trained to lie like that, I’ll have to rethink this opportunity.

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20161121/FREE/161119926/new-robo-adviser-geared-to-retirees%20?utm_source=Morning-20161121&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=investmentnews&utm_visit=344272

#36 nonplused on 11.25.16 at 7:46 pm

If I didn’t know better I’d almost think Garth doesn’t think Trump’s 4 years will really be all that bad.

I tend to agree. He’s only one man in a system with checks and balances. He may have said whatever he had to and bullied his way into office, but now that he’s there he’ll have to be pragmatic.

Let’s look at the wall for example. I don’t think the Donald ever said anything about stopping “legal immigration”, his wife is an immigrant after all, as is all of the US population if you go back far enough (even the natives came from Asia, but to be fair there was nobody here when they found it). He wants to stop “illegal immigration”. Well, as they are finding out in Europe, you have to. You can’t have a $15 minimum wage and a socialist support net and at the same time allow millions of illegals to come in and take those jobs under the table for less and not contribute to the cost of the social net. It just doesn’t work.

EI and worker’s comp are 2 examples of social nets that sort of work. The reason they work is because you have to pay in when you can before you can pull out when you need to. The Canadian medical system kind of works but not as well because you don’t really have to pay in much, but we can float it. However if a million people showed up from out of country at our hospitals tomorrow demanding free care, the system would collapse, as is happening in Europe. Welfare doesn’t really work at all, because it demands no effort on the part of the recipients other than they live a pretty shitty lifestyle. They never have to put in a dime. But that lifestyle looks pretty good to a lot of people in 3rd world countries, which is why the mass migrations are occurring.

So I propose a new economic theory: Socialism can only work in countries that have pretty much full employment, which means a socialist country cannot allow mass migrations across their boarders. Immigration policies should be based on demographic needs and screening for employable applicants (and their dependents i.e. families). Accepting millions of migrants who are going to either go straight on welfare and stay there or work under the table and undercut the existing wage, tax and labor laws is a recipe for disaster.

So what will Trump’s wall do? Enforce the laws of the land. They can still let anyone through who is a legal immigrant and they will. If it stops anybody, it will only be people who are already breaking the law.

Anyway I don’t think they will ever actually build it, and even if they do the illegals will just build tunnels. For every measure there is a countermeasure.

#37 TurnerNation on 11.25.16 at 7:53 pm

Excellent. I remember when I first heard all the Eagles’ songs – a seminal moment. Late 1992.

Taking it to the limit in the long run, gonna be a heartache tonight for the deperados:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXzducbfLmc

M41ON

#38 Smoking Man on 11.25.16 at 7:57 pm

DELETED

#39 Wrk.dover on 11.25.16 at 8:00 pm

I have spent much more than usual this year. Except for locally procured Chinese stuff, all of it on car parts mostly of Chinese origin on line from USA.

So where is it I can help the economy with this business model? The cdn dollar not worth capital letters model. If by grand design all of the after tax money out there is paying down loans, David Stockman is correct. There is no future.

Hard to participate in something that does not exist by design. How about letting demand set interest rates and not one dullard in Ottawa making that call.

Free Trade, Globalisation. Sure Mack. The old cars I rub on were originally made with Canadian made parts. The replacement parts come from a rice paddy.

Now that it is getting cold it is time to start flying back and forth to the Caribbean. Ohhh Canada!

#40 Sideshow Rob on 11.25.16 at 8:04 pm

Good thing the markets priced in a Hilary landslide victory like all the “experts” said. Then it priced in a Hillary face plant. No one knows nothing.

#41 InvestorsFriend on 11.25.16 at 8:07 pm

People See What They Want to See

And they Believe What They Wish to Believe

And they see the evidence to support their view.

#27 Ogopogo on 11.25.16 at 7:25 pm
Karma is a she-K9: quoted the following completely false headline from the Financial Post:

“Calgary landlords facing ‘grim’ times as almost 40% of rental properties sit empty”

And commented:

Greedy, arrogant, rapacious landlords now choking on humble pie.

*******************************************
The headline was completely wrong as the article said:

37 per cent of the ADVERTISED rental properties in Calgary do not currently have a tenant.

So we go from 37% of the apartments being advertised for rent are empty. (umm, that’s why they were advertised, that or they were about to become empty) to “almost 40% of rental units sit empty”!!! – which is completely false.

But no matter, people believe what they want to and see the evidence to support their views.

#42 Smoking Man on 11.25.16 at 8:09 pm

https://youtu.be/ZX0CfFdk-jw

To hammered to post

#43 InvestorsFriend on 11.25.16 at 8:14 pm

U.S> dollar exposure from Canadian companies?

#31 CL on 11.25.16 at 7:29 pm said:

I agree about buying maple, but what’s wrong with maple companies with US operations and/or some kind of revenue exposure to it? And who present financial reports in USD as a result of this?

*************************************
Absolutely correct, a Canadian listed company that has most of its earnings from the U.S. IS U.S. dollar exposure. And especially if it reports in U.S. dollars because in that case it won’t be hedging back to Canadian dollars.

And as for interlisted companies, the U.S. dollar exposure is EXACTLY the same whether you buy the stock on Toronto or New York.

If you buy U.S. stocks or Canadian stocks with a lot of U.S. operations you get exposure to both corporate risk/opportunity as well as currency risk/opportunity.

If you seek pure U.S. currency risk/exposure, buy a U.S. dollar treasury or put the money in a U.S. dollar account.

#44 Smoking Man on 11.25.16 at 8:16 pm

To the man who is on the otherside

https://youtu.be/YrLk4vdY28Q

#45 Wrk.dover on 11.25.16 at 8:16 pm

Here is some Friday night music for Moking San

Canadian content, lyrics about liens and mortgages and a smoking man to boot!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vRRG3rswfk

I won’t make a habit of these submissions.

#46 bigtowne on 11.25.16 at 8:19 pm

Low carbon foot print and energy efficiency are worthy goals but if it hampers the economy; removes revenue from government due to lack of jobs and income and causes jobs and businesses to relocate to a more welcoming locale…..why bother?

Had Ontario embraced businesses that actually cut the carbon footprint without burdening the taxpayer with mountains of tax burden and gutting manufacturing we would be in great shape.

We all want a clean environment but if it requires Canada to gut its jobs; gut its economy; gut its tax base and drop our quality of life and cut our incomes in half to pay for government bail outs and government favourite tax lobbyists then we will breathe fresh air but our economy will shrink and investment and investors and the educated will go where the assets and the money is most favoured not where it is squandered away by well-meaning eco bureaucrats and zealous politicos on the Green Peace bandwagon.

#47 For those about to flop... on 11.25.16 at 8:22 pm

135 million Americans are expected to buy something during Black Friday week.

Roughly the same amount as turned out to vote in the election a few weeks ago.

Maybe to save everyone some time they should just put the election back a couple of weeks and put booths in Walmart ,Bestbuy and Macy’s…

M42BC

#48 Barb on 11.25.16 at 8:27 pm

“…renegotiated NAFTA a slight positive for Canada.”

WHAT?
So you think Canadian lawyers sitting across the table from American lawyers will–finally–score some points for Canada?

That’d be a first.

#49 ww1 on 11.25.16 at 8:32 pm

#8 MF on 11.25.16 at 6:41 pm
Let’s hope they don’t cut so everyone’s CPD doesn’t get creamed again. I’m waiting to at least break even so i can trade it away forever.

Investing 102

It does not matter what you paid for a stock/fund – that money is gone. The only question you need to ask yourself is “Would I buy this stock/fund today at the current price?” If your answer is “no”, then sell and move your money somewhere that you like better. What you paid is irrelevant and waiting for it to “go back up” so that you can “break even” is a bad way to manage your money.

Every time I see this sort of comment, I just shake my head.

#50 Ret on 11.25.16 at 8:35 pm

What a contrast.

Mr. “Make America Great,” overseeing the Trump team negotiations with Carrier vs. sunny ways at the Madagascar summit for French speaking nations.

Well. at least one leader has their priorities straight. Invest accordingly.

#51 Millenial-falcon on 11.25.16 at 8:36 pm

If all it took to clear the runway for US growth/inflation ,
Why did they wait 8 years and waste trillions of dollars ?
Why didn’t they open the playbook from the 40s ?

How come they needed trump to save them ?
Barrack could of done and said the exact same things…..
Garth/ Blog dogs …..?

#52 Ace Goodheart on 11.25.16 at 8:41 pm

This is setting up to be the perfect storm. We have socialists everywhere, a heavily indebted population, and our most valuable commodity is real estate.

What foul creature will crawl out of this mess when it’s all over? Makes you wonder.

Oh well, life as a contrarian investor has never been better. Just watching all these buying opportunities popping up. And it’s RRSP time…..

#53 ShawnG in TO on 11.25.16 at 8:42 pm

> #28 Andrew Woburn on 11.25.16 at 7:25 pm

well, let’s hope those robots are build in us / Canada then.

#54 TurnerNation on 11.25.16 at 8:43 pm

For all the goldnuts and doomers believing that which they read: not one commenter believes the claptrap theory, here espoused at the Kommunist Broadcast Korp. of Kanada:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/costume-party-photos-queen-s-university-1.3863522

– Manufactured outrage to revive and conquer our Kulture.

#55 Smoking Man on 11.25.16 at 8:52 pm

https://youtu.be/m9BCpIm_P9Y

#56 Ogopogo on 11.25.16 at 8:56 pm

#42 InvestorsFriend on 11.25.16 at 8:07 pm
People See What They Want to See

And they Believe What They Wish to Believe

And they see the evidence to support their view.

The headline was completely wrong as the article said:

37 per cent of the ADVERTISED rental properties in Calgary do not currently have a tenant.

So we go from 37% of the apartments being advertised for rent are empty. (umm, that’s why they were advertised, that or they were about to become empty) to “almost 40% of rental units sit empty”!!! – which is completely false.

But no matter, people believe what they want to and see the evidence to support their views.

Are you mentally challenged? Or just need to work on your reading comprehension?

Read again:

“According to its report, 37 per cent of the advertised rental properties in Calgary do not currently have a tenant living in them, and the average property spends 59 days on the market before being rented.”

The unites are sitting empty for an average of 2 months before finding a tenant. That’s the case for 37% of the units. Do you even realize the magnitude of this crash in rental occupancy? They weren’t “about to become empty” as you claim. They ARE empty, my semi-literate friend.

#facepalm

#57 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.25.16 at 8:58 pm

Economic growth in 2016 will be 1%, if we’re lucky. (Recently the US has been cruising along at three times that.) Our trade deficit is epic. A record. The dollar’s mired below 75 cents US. Job creation has been erratic and inconsistent.

It should be blatantly clear to the BoC that low rates aren’t having any impact, the lethargic CAD is also useless and that T2 has been an economic failure. As I’ve always maintained, T2 will preside over the economic collapse of our country. So far so right

#58 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.25.16 at 9:02 pm

Bank of Canada rate nip is not good news. These guys only chop when all else has failed

Bingo

And everything has failed

#59 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.25.16 at 9:04 pm

(Canadian) dollar will be a certain casualty as the spread widens between US and Canadian rates. If you think 73 cents is embarrassing, just wait

In this crazy Trump world I don’t think anybody now knows how low the Canadian dollar will go

#60 For those about to flop... on 11.25.16 at 9:04 pm

With the Metrosexual Messiah’s visit to Africa , Toto has agreed to celebrate the moment by re-releasing his hit song Africa.

Below is one of the verses of that song.

“It’s gonna take a lot to take me away from you
There’s nothing that a hundred men or more could ever do
I bless the rains down in Africa
Gonna take some time to do the things we never had”

I am proposing that the remix has the word “men” changed to “millions ” .
It seems more apt for this guy.

There is no continent he won’t visit to compete in the Cheeseball Olympics…

M42BC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FTQbiNvZqaY

#61 WaitingForTheWorldToChange on 11.25.16 at 9:05 pm

The US is growing at 3% now? Last I saw this year is projected at 1.8%?

Actually 2.9%. — Garth

#62 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.25.16 at 9:09 pm

Hopefully you also took the suggestion, when the loonie was above par and houses in Phoenix were selling at a 70% discount, to buy one or two

This was Garthos best call by faaaaaar. FL and AZ were giving away homes for free and USD at par. How crazy was that?

The big mistake amoung my peers was buying a retirement home. I told them that your USD expenses could eventually turn around and bite you if the CAD weakened. For whatever stupid reason people thought the CAD was going higher. Dumb. I took the rental multiplexes that generated USD. USD is always good. Everywhere.

#63 50 cent dollar good for Canada on 11.25.16 at 9:09 pm

Don’t be so negative. Our country is one of the greatest in the world. We have weathered the 2008 economic recession as if nothing happened.

Repeat after me: I will NOT BE SO NEGATIVE.

Mental illness and veiled misogyny are inter-mixed that when someone despises the development of our great country because our Prime Minister is a feminist, it shows as symptoms of mental illness.

The C$ will rise again. We need a low c$ to export more of our goods.

You do not need a vacation when Canada is a great country with better tourist destinations than Paris, Havana, Medellin, Rome and Athens, Greece.

Toronto is better than every city in the world because Toronto is ranked #1 in the Economist and Forbes magazine for best city in the world.

Negativity and depression should be banned from our great country. If you don’t like our country, then it isn’t Canada, It’s you.

Seek help. We need the C$ to be in the 50 cent to 70 cent range to boost our exports. It’s for our own good.

#64 common sense on 11.25.16 at 9:10 pm

#29 Flopper

Does it make you crazy when people buy a vowel when it’s so obvious?

Lobst_r. “Pat, can I buy an E?”

#65 For those about to flop... on 11.25.16 at 9:18 pm

#33 Mariano on 11.25.16 at 7:43 pm
It so easy to forecast a hundred things, and then a few become true, and then you tell people “I told you so!” later on…

There are many things that you have forecasted, and have never turned up.

No one can forecast,not even you.

/////////////////////////////

I forecast you did not come here to make friends…

M42BC

#66 acdel on 11.25.16 at 9:19 pm

We have what the world needs, “yet” we are hostage to bad politics and world funded special interest groups determined to not allow us to become one of the largest players in the world, it’s doable, we Canucks are too passive; as the British would say, “pity”!

#67 Last of the Boomers on 11.25.16 at 9:30 pm

Can’t believe no one has offered a speculative guess on what the Canadian federal governments decision has been on the enbridge pipeline. With so much doom and gloom for the Canadian economy, what alternatives have they left? Anyone venture a guess? Anyone with inside knowledge or close thereof want to risk a hint?

#68 LoveThisBlog on 11.25.16 at 9:46 pm

Smoking Man has access to computers in the asylum?
No wonder myvtaces are so high

#69 liquidincalgary on 11.25.16 at 9:58 pm

Ogopogo on 11.25.16 at 7:25 pm

=====================================

tilting at windmills…

#70 WaitingForTheWorldToChange on 11.25.16 at 10:00 pm

The US is growing at 3% now? Last I saw this year is projected at 1.8%?

Actually 2.9%. — Garth

You really need to stop making stuff up. That was third quarter after 1.4% in the 2nd quarter and less than 1% in first quarter (because we get some snow). Annualized is 2% or less. And I appreciate that you do not understand the bond market because no analyst who does would suggest that the recent volatility in the bond market is because of expectations of growth.

My statement was “recently the U.S. has been cruising along at three times” Canada’s growth of 1%. Correct, whether you like it or not. — Garth

#71 cto on 11.25.16 at 10:05 pm

#45 bigtowne

very well put! A country can not take the environmental high road without the economic capability to pull it off.

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.25.16 at 10:09 pm

@#126 I Feel you Randy……
“Then again, anybody worried about insurance on a ‘Vette is pedestrian and far too sensible/boring to say the least. ”
********************************************

Apparently while you were feeling “randy” you were’nt paying attention to what you were reading.
If your CAR, SUV, whatever is worth more than $150k the Insurance corporation of BC will not cover you so

Good Luck driving THIS

http://www.google.ca/url?url=http://www.topgear.com/car-news/supercars/248mph-750bhp-saleen-s7-tt-sale&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwiY8bTEuMXQAhUMyWMKHROAAWsQFghNMAs&usg=AFQjCNGhrSIxBDHDgpsrbxt3T6SRtCAxlg

in BC unless your willing to shuck out 5-10 k PER YEAR for private insurance.

But. like most super cars
It’ll be a garage queen that rarely sees the light of day.

#73 Context on 11.25.16 at 10:10 pm

#53 TurnerNations: These hypocrites at Queens just want to be seen as morally correct over a party, but when invited to a Togo Party will be the first one’s at the entrance door with a bottle dressed in a white sheet screaming lets party.

#74 45north on 11.25.16 at 10:14 pm

If it happens, it would be an admission that almost two years of T2 governance, higher deficits, more spending and promises to create oodles of jobs through deficit-financed infrastructure programs, failed. It was just words.

“it was just words”

the Liberal Government has forced 200 officials to sign an agreement not to disclose details of the new fighter jet program, as long as they live! This despite its promise to be more transparent. Now obviously there things which must not be disclosed. I’m thinking precise specifications for jet engines and radar but this agreement seems to go beyond what is normal.

Defence industry executives and retired public servants say they have never seen such secrecy surrounding an equipment program.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/liberals-order-235-military-public-servants-to-take-fighter-jet-secrets-to-the-grave

the agreement is between the officials and the Government. If the Government changes then the agreement can be changed. It has the air of desperation.

#75 Olive on 11.25.16 at 10:15 pm

Hi Garth,

Poloz is going to cut rates…my goodness.

We will become like India…where US dollar(s) is king. There will be zero confidence in Canadian currency by the good people of Canada.

Pathetic !

#76 South Etobicoke Trump Campaign Field HQ on 11.25.16 at 10:17 pm

Garth seems to understand that the Emperor Protects..

When will the rest of Canadians abandon their heretical ways?

#77 Barb on 11.25.16 at 10:19 pm

At least 114 Asian immigrants to B.C. will be deported in this consultant’s fraud where he listed his own home as THEIR address:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/clients-of-convicted-immigration-consultant-facing-deportation-for-lying-1.3868330

Realtors–and now consultants–vying with used car salesmen for “lowest of the low”.

#78 hey SM on 11.25.16 at 10:21 pm

DELETED

#79 the other white meat (pork) on 11.25.16 at 10:24 pm

http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/rick-santorum-jeers-pm-trudeau-s-nafta-move-1.3165964

The guy with his father’s name and mother’s brain has made a big impression down south. I wonder if he will send Freedland (aka the weeper) into those negotiaions. Looks like Donnie’s crew will give her something to cry about.

Garth, did you openly weep when a bill you championed didn’t pass?

#80 PS on 11.25.16 at 10:28 pm

Well, if the BOC drops rates again, preferred shares are headed lower. I guess that’s why PS etf’s haven’t risen in price since Trump won, even though bond yields have shot higher.

#81 WaitingForTheWorldToChange on 11.25.16 at 10:28 pm

My statement was “recently the U.S. has been cruising along at three times” Canada’s growth of 1%. Correct, whether you like it or not. — Garth

Canada has Q3 forecast of 1.5% so slightly more than half of the US, not 1/3? If you believe that the bond market is factoring in accelerated growth in the US does that imply that you think that Trump’s protectionist policies and increased debt through infrastructure spend is going to be the driver? Otherwise….I am not sure how you could characterize the bond volatility as such?

Canada GDP, Q1 0.6%, Q2 -0.4%. Pathetic. — Garth

#82 DON on 11.25.16 at 10:38 pm

#35 nonplused on 11.25.16 at 7:46 pm

You knocked that one out of the park!

But Trump could change his tune and build infrastructure, maybe the Great Wall Of AMERICA – with land and air military drones swarming the borders. I think Trump is just playing nice…laying low waiting for that day he officially takes over.

cheers

#83 For those about to flop... on 11.25.16 at 10:39 pm

Hey MF , I promised you a while back I would walk this path with you as we age, well you know I’m a hack but this is my advice for you regarding CPD.

If you have your TFSA maxed out it would have 46.5k in it in contributions.

If you have spent all of the 20% recommendation on Preferreds on CPD then you will have spent less than 10k on this fund.

Last time we spoke you were 33 ,it might seem like a lot of money now but as your portfolio swells with time and contributions this will become minuscule.

Keep it for a few more years for the diversification and yield and reassess.

I have similar quandary with my India fund ,it was just getting close to where I bought it then the currency fiasco started. I am probably going to hold that fund for a long time though…hard to see India worse off in 20 years than now…who knows?

This is just growing pains ,you still have a way to go to you fit into your old man pants.

I suck at math and advice but I am willing to embarrass myself on here to keep my promise…

M42BC

#84 AACI Home-Dog on 11.25.16 at 10:40 pm

“Trumps deification”…damn…is he becoming a deity ?

#85 ww1 on 11.25.16 at 10:45 pm

#35 nonplused on 11.25.16 at 7:46 pm
He’s only one man in a system with checks and balances. He may have said whatever he had to and bullied his way into office, but now that he’s there he’ll have to be pragmatic.

Have you actually looked at who he is appointing?

Besides being from the 0.1%, they all have far right wing agendas and axes to grind. It’s not going to be “only one man” .. he is appointing an executive hit squad that is going to push HUGE swings to the far right in every part of American life.

A climate change denier running the EPA? A major GOP fund raiser and “career vouchers and school choice” woman as Education secretary?

This is getting bad very fast.

#86 AACI Home-Dog on 11.25.16 at 10:46 pm

From what I have seen (for eg…black Friday sales action videos), it will take a lot of time & work to make America “great again”.

We are so superior. — Garth

#87 WaitingForTheWorldToChange on 11.25.16 at 10:48 pm

Canada GDP, Q1 0.6%, Q2 -0.4%. Pathetic. — Garth

I said Q3 forecasted at 1.5%, slightly more than half the US. Correct whether you like it or not. And US was annualized at 1% for the first two quarters of this year…and when you factor a debt level of 100% of GDP clearly not a result that would support a spike in interest rates. Hence….who really believes that Trump’s protectionist policies is going to make America great again?

#88 RIL on 11.25.16 at 11:08 pm

I have tried to stifle my compulsion to comment here each day to avoid harming the carpets in our host’s house. Can’t do it. Tomorrow I will Google the availability of counselling here on the former “range of the Buffalo” (Diamnd Joe White – from Turner Valley, AB.) to deal with my addiction.

Yesterday I tried to kick over a hornet’s nest about the whining of Albrtans on equalization payments. Sorta worked. Whining is unseemly in the land of the “truckers and the kickers and the cowboy angels” (Gram Parsons – Return of The Grievous Angel).

Now another song writers brilliance. “Living in the shade of a freeway. I make my lunch in the morning and go to work each day. Then I lay my body down… Get up and do it again. Do it again…).

Trumping AB anthems. Goggle them.

Garth, sorry about the maudlin sentimentally, but darn it is dark in Ft. Mac these days.

Flames beat the Bruins tonight.

#89 GFD on 11.25.16 at 11:20 pm

Watch out there are delusional socialists on the lose. They are still in disbelief, unable to help themselves.

#90 The Wet Coast on 11.25.16 at 11:22 pm

Keep mocking Alberta…at your peril.

Albertans were also outliers when asked if they approved or disapproved of the way Trump is handling his job as president-elect of the U.S.

In Alberta, Trump received 47.8 per cent approval. Support was lowest in Quebec, where 21 per cent of people said they approved, followed by British Columbia, with 22 per cent.

#91 InvestorsFriend on 11.25.16 at 11:38 pm

Is the InvestorsFriend Mentally Challenged?

#55 Ogopogo on 11.25.16 at 8:56 pm thins so and said:

Are you mentally challenged? Or just need to work on your reading comprehension?

Read again:

“According to its report, 37 per cent of the advertised rental properties in Calgary do not currently have a tenant living in them, and the average property spends 59 days on the market before being rented.”

The unites are sitting empty for an average of 2 months before finding a tenant. That’s the case for 37% of the units. Do you even realize the magnitude of this crash in rental occupancy? They weren’t “about to become empty” as you claim. They ARE empty, my semi-literate friend.

*******************************************

Well, thank you for the concern about my mental state.

But, take a deep breath.

It is only 37% of the ADVERTISED rental units that do not currently have a tenant.

One only advertises a rental unit for rent if it is empty or the existing tenant has given notice and is about to vacate.

Did you really think that 37% of the total stock of rental units was empty?

And if so, did you think that it would only take an average of 59 days to find a tenant in that market?

Did you think there has been a mass exodus from Calgary? (like a third of the rental population gone?)

You were had by a misleading headline, and an article that painted a modestly bad rental market as apocalyptic.

In fact the Financial Post article suggested that the vacancy rate might soar to – wait for it- um 8%. This was from CMHC figures, and the latest available data was 5.3%.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/property-post/calgary-landlords-facing-grim-times-as-almost-40-of-rental-properties-sit-empty?__lsa=687a-ee8b

If the Hope Street Survey was talking about 37% of ALL units rather than just those currently advertised, then it is simply just obviously wrong.

But never mind, people believe what they want to.

#92 Mark on 11.25.16 at 11:42 pm

“If your CAR, SUV, whatever is worth more than $150k the Insurance corporation of BC will not cover you so”

No big deal. I own a car in that price range. Its insured with a non-government, private sector insurer. The insurance premium isn’t even that much money given that people who own cars that cost that much tend not to be risky operators.

The C$ will rise again. We need a low c$ to export more of our goods.

My thought as well. Usually countries with very little external debt, and long-term trade surpluses aren’t particularly victorious in trade and currency wars. In that, the ‘victor’ in a trade war is the one who manages to devalue their currency the most.

Canada will lose the competitive devaluation game as the resource sector gives us such a robust export capacity and external public perception of significant export capability. High-end luxury will do very well in Canada in the next few decades.

#93 Millennial-falcon on 11.25.16 at 11:48 pm

When it comes to nafta Trudeau couldn’t negotiate his was out of a wet paper bag let alone get something for Canada. We are screwed. I miss Harper.

#94 Ace Goodheart on 11.25.16 at 11:49 pm

re: #19 What Can I Say…

“If Trump goes protectionist, we will go from sputtering to recession and that is something that will hurt Canada for many years to come.”

This is not actually true. Protectionism helps us. Trade barriers are a good thing. This is due to how businesses work. A business runs on its bottom line. That means, produce a product, as cheap as possible, sell for as much as possible. Remove trade barriers, everyone is producing in third world countries. Labour costs nothing and there are no regulations. Can get away with anything. Pollution, workplace standards, Union busting, you name it you can do it. Work your labour 14 hours a day seven days a week till they drop dead, then bring in new ones. The third world is full of people.

Trade barriers stop all that. Suddenly you cannot move product easily across borders. If you want to sell, then you have to produce where you sell.

So companies adapt. They open production on both sides of the border. They swap. Produce part of the product here, part in the USA, and move it back and forth. Government gives you permission, because you are creating local jobs. All of a sudden you have these cool factories pumping out jobs all over your country. Why? Because they have to be there. Can’t locate them anywhere else. Can’t move the products across the border so you have to make them in the place you sell them.

Globalization benefited one group of individuals and that group is billionaires. All of a sudden, they don’t have to give a crap about humanity anymore, if they want to make money. Peeps have been fighting this stuff for years. How many college grads have gone to south east asia to secretly take pics in sweatshops? Product lines were built on reactions to what the wealthy were doing to make money. Put up trade walls and guess what, suddenly if you want to sell clothing in a US store, it has to be made by US workers.

All trade barriers do is force billionaires to give a crap again. Forces them to produce locally. They’ll still find a way to gut unions, trash labour laws and break the rules, but at least our local folks will be getting paid to produce the products.

#95 RIL on 11.25.16 at 11:55 pm

My last comment was incoherent. And I neglected to credit the incomparable Jackson Browne for the lyrics “… in the shade of a freeway. ”

Garth, I hope you have a swell time in the swish corporate box at BMO Field Sunday as the the Stamps bring home Lord Grey’s silver cup. Take the Hummer to the tailgate hoopla.

#96 jay on 11.25.16 at 11:55 pm

Garth ,what if we raise immigration levels to 1 million per year,that would help.More people equals more employment.

#97 paulo on 11.26.16 at 12:07 am

#73
This type of undertaking is quite common especially south
of the lower 48th
this aircraft incorporates some very advanced technology,
individual knowledge of its capabilities could be construed as “sensitive and vital to national security interests”
i personally am signed off on such undertakings they are
common in military or intelligence related issues or program’s involving civilian contractors or other persons

#98 Metaxa on 11.26.16 at 12:10 am

#87 RIL
MDMA and talk therapy for PTSD and micro doses of LSD for max efficiency and focus.

Honest, man, pretty soon after that you are down to a handful of Xanax washed down with vodka and OJ in the morning.

You constantly provide some of the most compelling posts even if they are a twitch off topic.

With so many using this comment section to air their personal psychosis and hate yours are damn refreshing.

Truth.

better living through chemistry, right?

#99 Metaxa on 11.26.16 at 12:24 am

# 59 Flop:

My favourite version of Africa…on my computer, in my car and on my wife’s thing, gonna say Walkman but today’s version.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09LQlfMmW7s

Love the intro….

#100 steerage steward on 11.26.16 at 12:31 am

May be coming to a head. Now when if I ask the millennials I know if they are looking forward to buying, they don’t seem so sure.

Two years ago they were all gung ho to won.

Of course these are the same people that have not read a single book on finance, psychology, history, gognitive bias, or dog rearing.

#101 Balmuto on 11.26.16 at 12:36 am

#58 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.25.16 at 9:04 pm

“In this crazy Trump world I don’t think anybody now knows how low the Canadian dollar will go”

Trump’s a sideshow for the CAD. Get OIL right and you’ll get the C$ right.

#102 James on 11.26.16 at 12:54 am

50 cent Loonie?

Is that even possible??????

I know that the lowest the Canadian/CAD ever went was 62 cents in 2002 I believe.

Some experts are even saying that if the US FED hikes rates over 25 basis points cumulative within the first six months of 2017, while Canada BoC is reported to be dovish on rates, or even cutting it to 0.25% or 0.10% during the same period, don’t forget:

The Canadian economy low oil and poor manufacturing, at the same time if the real estate market collapses—–All of that will contribute to most likely a 45 cent or 40 cent loonie, according to a blogger and online commenters on financial blogs.

I doubt that a 45-cent or 40-cent loonie will boost exports, but it will lead to some form of hyper-inflation because most of the imports to Canada are measured in USD.

What ever makes Trudeau, his Sunny Ways and rabid fans of angry N.O.W supporters happy I guess. Trudeau and his gender equality cronies are just going to expense that $5,000 Canadian loonie airfare from Ontario to some war-torn part of Africa to spread gender equality in any case as far as I am concerned. Trudeau and his BoC cronies would even lower the CAD to 10 cents if they wanted to.

#103 Metaxa on 11.26.16 at 1:21 am

#34 Andrew Woburn
There’s a new robo-adviser aimed at retired people instead of millennials.

You know what I think would fly?
Lunch Bucket Financial.
Blue Collar Financial…whatever

Why do you have to start with the banks and hope you make an account minimum that enables you to obtain some higher end, real financial planning and advice?

If you even know it exists.

Not everyone is an expert, self made stock picking millionaire and the folks among whom I live and from whom I’ve made a living for decades get stuck with the bank or pulled in by Investors (remember when they were a syndicate?) or Primerica. A main street company for mainstream people or something like that.

Think of what might happen if this huge slug of humanity (that votes) got a sound financial plan, sound investment advice without the conflicts of interest inherent in the places they must use. At a price they could afford, that was structured so it only went up if their portfolios went up too. That didn’t sell them a money accumulation plan or insurance that was designed for profit first and coverage second.

there is a whole lot more of the people I’m referring to than there are with the $100,000 account minimum.

You just have to figure a business plan that takes many, many small bites of a far larger pie than one that takes decent bites out of a smaller pie.

#104 Desperado - MASHDEX on 11.26.16 at 1:35 am

[…] Read more here:: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/11/25/desperado/ […]

#105 Freedom First on 11.26.16 at 1:45 am

#62 50 cent $ good for Canada

……Poloz…..Is that you?

#106 Boston Consulting Group...leave welding alone on 11.26.16 at 2:35 am

Started my Engineering career as a Welding Engineer and have worked with such robots, not only for simpleton Spot Welding but also MIG and TIG in more precision applications where repeatability important using advanced features such as pulse, custom V/I curves etc. (GMAW, GTAW for the purists).

Firstly, those things cost $100 K each, plus or minus (the simpleton spot welders), the others much more – I spent more than that on a GTAW robot back in the early 80s when working for Fluor Corporation.

Secondly, spot welder robots are only economical in high volume, low customization manufacturing environments (e.g., spot welding the same car chassis, over and over again, Submerged Arc Welding [SAW] a longitudinal seam on a pressure vessel, still the latter needs a Tech to program and a Welder to watch).

Thirdly, if it is mild steel you are spot welding then fine, not so easily done for other metals.

Fourthly, that $8/hr worker would be replaced, if you haven’t guessed by now, with a $30/hr Tech to reprogram and maintain a spot welder in a high customization, low volume environment. Depending on the environment, add the wage of a Welder to that to babysit the robot (e.g., SAW).

Fifth and most important, if it were so true about robotic welders, then why did China create so many jobs and Canada and the USA lose about 30-40% of their manufacturing workforce in the past 30 years?

Tell Boston Group to stick to their Product Portfolio Matrix (dog, cash cow, ?, star) and leave Engineering to Engineers. Business people are quite dull when it comes to the Physics of Welding as it involves, oh horrors, something technical other than using an Excel Spreadsheet.

In conclusion, low volume, high customization jobs can be repatriated from America’s friends on the other side of the Pacific Ocean. And it isn’t a Spot Welder that’s going to stop Trump from doing that.

bsant

#107 bdwy sktrn on 11.26.16 at 3:15 am

#46 For those about to flop… on 11.25.16 at 8:22 pm
135 million Americans are expected to buy something during Black Friday week.

Roughly the same amount as turned out to vote in the election a few weeks ago.

Maybe to save everyone some time they should just put the election back a couple of weeks and put booths in Walmart ,Bestbuy and Macy’s…

M42BC
——————
funny.
but i don’t know how much overlap there is between the two groups. perhaps it’s best that those who can be commanded to spend cash at will are kept away from the voting booth.

#108 bdwy sktrn on 11.26.16 at 3:24 am

ogopogo – it looks like not much light is reaching the depths of the lake okanagin. you are dead wrong. InvFiend is 100% correct in this case.
and it seems he also correct that you are seeing what you want to see.

grab an electric eel for some light and read it again

” According to its report, 37 per cent of the advertised rental properties in Calgary do not currently have a tenant living in them…
There are 8,102 rental properties currently advertised for rent in Calgary”

so about 3200 empty apts.
does calgary have 200,000 apt units? more?

you should apologize to IF and the garth and the dogs for pooping here.

you ar

#109 bdwy sktrn on 11.26.16 at 3:57 am

smokey give it a rest with the vids. we can all find a classic rock station without your help, thx. one day you’ll graduate to led zepplin.

but do NOT stop w the rate/forex/election calls , those are good. very good. waiting to see if you still say 100% cut tomorrow when you sober up , if you do i will bet $ on it.

here is a link that’s not a 70’s rock vid;
http://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users/#byregion

gives me hope for humanity (that and trump killing pc’ism)

…..
canada does seem in for a spot of trouble ahead esp w our helium headed PM with his mothers brains.

————–
so if i have a machine (almost ready) that will prepare burgers for 1/10 the cost of a human, is it morally wrong to unleash it on the world , knowing it will kill millions of jobs?

—————————

rip – fidel the murderin’ cuban and yvr’s second beluga in as many weeks.(murder x 2??? – i’m thinking a messed-up sjw though the whales would be ‘happier’ dead than in a tank)

———————-
trump rally died today.

#110 Future Expatriate on 11.26.16 at 3:59 am

“tat-wearing, weed-smoking, shirt-doffing hotty leader”

Garth. Jealousy unbecomes you.

#111 bdwy sktrn on 11.26.16 at 4:00 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iucKF9ly60A
Led Zeppelin Knebworth 1979 – Hot Dog

#112 Future Expatriate on 11.26.16 at 4:03 am

Oh look, ConservaBorg turn on Trump PRE-Inaguration, run article that just could turn around the electoral college vote (on TOP of the emoluments clause of the Constitution and the Trump Family business entanglements)

http://worldnewsdailyreport.com/snowden-russia-successfully-rigged-us-elections-in-favor-of-trump/

Not over yet.

#113 Guelph Hick on 11.26.16 at 8:09 am

The following is an “exclusive” emergency email provided to to us by a local Guelph realtor…(home sales have obviously slowed down)

**********************
UPDATE: Who’s Winning and Who’s Losing with Canada’s New Mortgage Rules

Last month, I sent you an email about changes to Canada’s mortgage rules. (If you missed that email, just hit reply to this one and I’ll forward it to you).

It’s been over a month since the new rules have taken effect, here’s what’s new:

So far it seems very few buyers have been affected by the new mortgage changes announced last month. Most lenders were already qualifying their clients at the higher rate.
We’re still seeing competing offers on most homes in Guelph.
The competition has spread to KW/Cambridge.
Something we are seeing is the new mortgage rules are giving a lot of power to the big banks, ultimately positioning them to increase rates, which we saw in the last few weeks. TD began and RBC followed… I anticipate we will see more in the near future.
With Christmas rapidly approaching, I am not sure we will see the full effect these changes will have until the spring market rolls around.

On a positive note, first-time buyers were given a huge gift from the government.

Canada’s Finance Minister Charles Sousa said on November 11:

“First-time buyers won’t pay any land transfer tax on the first $368,000 of a purchase price, and they will become eligible for a rebate of up to $4,000 in provincial land transfer tax, levied on the purchase of every house and condominium.”

For those of you who have purchased a home in the past, this may not be of direct benefit to you, but first-time home buyers drive the market and so any advantage they have is a positive to all current homeowners.

#114 att0m on 11.26.16 at 8:21 am

“tat-wearing, weed-smoking, shirt-doffing hotty leader”

you lose credibility when you stretch the truth about the prime minister

What part of that is untrue? — Garth

#115 Wrk.dover on 11.26.16 at 8:29 am

#90 nit picking the details of Calgary’s vacancy rate.

do a little interpolation of the journalist’s editing.

It is not 40% of every rental unit, it is 40% of every available advertised rental unit. Sounds reasonable for verification of the situation there.

#116 Ret on 11.26.16 at 9:16 am

Castro’s gone. Canadians anxiously waiting for the Politburo (CBC) to tell them what to say, think, feel, and do. A great friend of the Canadian people according to our Prime Minister.
———————————————————-
Nine years old. Growing up in Hamilton. Steel town, huge. Rumoured that we are definitely on the list as a result.

Grainy spy shots hourly of Russian missiles on the tv interspersed with old movies of atomic bomb drops on Japan and H-bomb tests in the southern US.

Air raid drill. We all stood on the front porch but could only faintly hear the sirens. Totally inaudible indoors. We won’t have a chance.

Worried parents and teachers. Thought that my family and I would be wiped off the face of the earth at any moment.

Yeah, I remember Castro.

#117 traderJim on 11.26.16 at 9:24 am

Cubans literally dancing in the street at news of Fidel’s death.

cbc, bbc and CNN talking heads, who have never been to Cuba or talked to Cubans in private obviously, singing the tired old narrative ‘literacy and health care’.

The hypocrisy of leftists, who are absolutely terrified by Trump’s supposed authoritarianism , idolizing a true authoritarian dictator, and a gay bashing one at that, is almost too much to believe.

#118 Maj on 11.26.16 at 9:24 am

“now that America will be Great Again”

Not going to happen with a fraudster at the helm.
https://soundcloud.com/thebloomcast/voice-of-the-resistance-episode-2-2016
(listen to 7:12)

#119 Maj on 11.26.16 at 9:43 am

“The mercurial president-elect has already said he will trash the TPP trade deal on Day One of his deification.”

This may be very good for Canada’s future if TPP is trashed.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jim-balsillie-tpp-1.3310179

#120 Maj on 11.26.16 at 9:53 am

Yes! thank you for our “tat-wearing, weed-smoking, shirt-doffing hotty leader”. Although not perfect, Canadians can look to our southern neighbours to grow appreciation for our PM:

“Donald Trump will be our first president to pay massive fraud penalties on the eve of taking office – how he has tried to distract us from his $25 million payout and my take on what it really means.” -Lisa Bloom, American civil rights attorney (see podcast above)

#121 Kapuskasing Real Estate Update on 11.26.16 at 10:05 am

That’s right, nobody cares…..

#122 };-) aka Devil's Advocate-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.26.16 at 10:22 am

You can’t help but to stop and watch a burning house.

#123 Wild Albertan Gonads on 11.26.16 at 10:36 am

Trump:
“The witch is dead”

T2:
“legendary revolutionary and orator”

We truly have a goof ball running the show.

#124 Coming soon to GTA on 11.26.16 at 10:39 am

http://business.financialpost.com/news/property-post/calgary-landlords-facing-grim-times-as-almost-40-of-rental-properties-sit-empty?__lsa=654e-c271

#125 NoName on 11.26.16 at 10:51 am

Fun

good
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PMCiMij0kQ

not bad
https://youtu.be/Wj5dmTWWCeA

and disney version
https://youtu.be/91iIckLgqEo

#126 Ronaldo on 11.26.16 at 10:56 am

#114 Ret on 11.26.16 at 9:16 am

”Worried parents and teachers. Thought that my family and I would be wiped off the face of the earth at any moment.

Yeah, I remember Castro.”
————————————————————–

Ret, I remember those days so well, it’s like it was yesterday. I remember walking home from school the day Kennedy imposed a blockade on the Russian ships cruising towards Cuba and thinking that maybe we would wake up to missiles flying overhead. Most of us thought this was going to be the end of the world. Those were scary times with the doomsday clock at 1 minute before midnite.

Exactly what you were expected, and encouraged, to believe. Castro was inevitable. — Garth

#127 Dyugle on 11.26.16 at 11:00 am

2015 January 28th 10 year yield 1.68%
2015 June 6th 10 year yield 2.50%
2016 July 5th 10 year yield 1.37%
2016 today 10 year yield 2.36%
Lower lows and unless it moves over 2.50% in the remainder of the year then lower highs.
Not really the massacre that we are led to believe and the downtrend has yet to be broken by higher highs and higher lows. Demographic deflation is not an easy foe to defeat, just ask Japan. Money printing and infrastructure building worked for them?
But the U.S. is not Japan and they have the Donald who can work miricales cause he is the smartest politician in the world!

#128 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.26.16 at 11:18 am

High-end luxury will do very well in Canada in the next few decades

Dollarama isn’t high end FYI

#129 Denise#1 on 11.26.16 at 11:27 am

#111 Guelph Hick on 11.26.16 at 8:09 am on email from Guelph realtor:

Canada’s Finance Minister Charles Sousa said on November 11:

“First-time buyers won’t pay any land transfer tax on the first $368,000 of a purchase price, and they will become eligible for a rebate of up to $4,000 in provincial land transfer tax, levied on the purchase of every house and condominium.”

For those of you who have purchased a home in the past, this may not be of direct benefit to you, but first-time home buyers drive the market and so any advantage they have is a positive to all current homeowners.
====================================Wow, get your facts straight before sending out mass emails Guelph realtor. Charles Sousa is ONTARIO’S Minister of Finance, not CANADA’S. Bill Morneau is Canada’s Minister of Finance. Just, wow…

#130 Wild Albertan Gonads on 11.26.16 at 11:31 am

Ben Harper isn’t impressed with T2’s love for the commie dictator!! Way to go Ben!

https://twitter.com/Ben_S_Harper

#131 Julie K. on 11.26.16 at 11:44 am

The PM smokes weed???

Come on, man, gotta be one of those fake news stories!

Side Story: Mom Maggie had a (self-declared) predilection to the stuff. Her supply would be delivered via Canada Post to the front door of Sussex Drive. She admits taking to pot “like a duck to water”. She was even busted once for possesion (post Sussex Dr and after divorce from PET).

But her boy PM too?

Yikes.

Huffington Post interview (2013) with Justin Trudeau: He smoked marijuana “five or six times in his life.” “It has never really done anything for me. Sometimes, I guess, I have gotten a buzz, but other times no. I’m not really crazy about it. When the joint went around the room, I usually passed it around to the next person. (But) sometimes throughout my life, I’ve had a pull on it.” — Garth

#132 Ogopogo on 11.26.16 at 11:52 am

#107 bdwy sktrn on 11.26.16 at 3:24 am
ogopogo – it looks like not much light is reaching the depths of the lake okanagin. you are dead wrong. InvFiend is 100% correct in this case.
and it seems he also correct that you are seeing what you want to see.

grab an electric eel for some light and read it again

” According to its report, 37 per cent of the advertised rental properties in Calgary do not currently have a tenant living in them…
There are 8,102 rental properties currently advertised for rent in Calgary”

so about 3200 empty apts.
does calgary have 200,000 apt units? more?

you should apologize to IF and the garth and the dogs for pooping here.

you ar

Another semi-literate coming to the defense of the barely-literate. Look how he ends his post in mid verbal diarrohea. For crying out loud, is this the alternate universe?

Pay attention to what I’m actually pointing out. It helps to mouth the words (remember to breathe): I’m taking issue with IF’s claims that the advertised units are “about to become empty.” Of course I’m not talking about the entire market.

Where do the people come from?

#133 Anonymous on 11.26.16 at 11:56 am

Correction: Where do THESE people come from?

Also, lest I be misread yet again by the buffoon brigade, it is a crash in the sense that all these advertised units sitting empty would be filled to near-capacity in a healthy market.

#facepalm

The point is simple: in a distressed real estate market, vacancies rise, rents fall and landlords are squeezed. Seems to be the case in Alberta, clearly. — Garth

#134 Smoking Man on 11.26.16 at 12:16 pm

#115 traderJim on 11.26.16 at 9:24 am
Cubans literally dancing in the street at news of Fidel’s death.

cbc, bbc and CNN talking heads, who have never been to Cuba or talked to Cubans in private obviously, singing the tired old narrative ‘literacy and health care’.

The hypocrisy of leftists, who are absolutely terrified by Trump’s supposed authoritarianism , idolizing a true authoritarian dictator, and a gay bashing one at that, is almost too much to believe.
…..

Brainwashed since kindergarten.. The damage to their minds enormous.. Comes with a built in defence mechanism..To any idea not in the script they scream.. Racist, Homophobe, Sexist.

Common bonding tacktic. Bash straight white males.

The disrespectful ‘street dancing’ was in Miami, not Havana. — Garth

#135 Debt's Dark Embrace on 11.26.16 at 12:36 pm

When it comes to nafta Trudeau couldn’t negotiate his was out of a wet paper bag let alone get something for Canada. We are screwed. I miss Harper.
……………………..
Harper was an A–hole with a capital A….. Trudeau is an Empty Suit with a capital E.

#136 Alberta Guy on 11.26.16 at 12:40 pm

Such gifts are gone…

Yes, it was obvious to me then as it is now that our dollar was overpriced and it was a generational opportunity to invest in US Real Estate. The great strategy of purchasing 2 PHX SDHs (one with pool as rental property) when CAD:USD was 1.02 is that it provides a store of wealth that is increasing while US economy recovers, provides exposure to the USD that will continue to strengthen against CAD, and provides valid expense write-offs for annual maintenance trips to the rental property while living in the 2nd (coincidentally during winter months).

ABG

#137 Ace Goodheart on 11.26.16 at 12:41 pm

So just got the call from the bank today on one of our rental properties. Variable rate ,renewable in two years. Not much principal but still worth worrying about to a point.

We were told, time to fix the rate. Your variable of prime with a discount is about to disappear. Apparently banks are all raising their rates now.

So we locked it in at 2.44% for five years.

Just pointing this out for any of you who have variables and are carrying a heavy load, or peeps who are close to renewal.

These low rates are finished. Everything is moving up now. If you can’t afford to pay a few hundred more on your million dollar mortgage each month, best be making a quick appointment to see that financial advisor……

#138 Context on 11.26.16 at 12:55 pm

The Group of Seven paintings sure beats buying Real Estate as a large Harris just sold for over $11 million. I wanted to buy one years ago for diversification and was tipped off about a Harris in Chatham was placed in a two bit auction. Off I went to preview it and hate Chatham as was lost there for an hour driving in circles looking for this joint. It was a small painting with crap colours of brown, orange, and yellow which needed a cleaning and didn’t like it. Bet it sold for about 10K at most and should have bought it anyway – big mistake.

#139 Is this Smoking Man for real ? on 11.26.16 at 12:59 pm

Which news agency is ‘idolizing ‘ Castro ?

Are you on medications ? Don’t mix them with alcohol /weed/narcotics

Speaking of ‘brainwashed ‘….good grief

#140 Wrk.dover on 11.26.16 at 1:04 pm

The night that they cranked up the air raid / nuke missile sirens for a test in Toronto (1962?) the sound was yuge and amazing from every direction SE Etobicoke.
It lasted at least ten minutes.

#141 TCContrarian on 11.26.16 at 1:11 pm

“So, third, the dollar will be a certain casualty as the spread widens between US and Canadian rates. If you think 73 cents is embarrassing, just wait.” -GT

**********************************

If we have inflation, the CAD will strengthen – even to a level of parity with USD.
This is the other side of the argument. We’ll see which one comes to fruition.

TCC

That was funny. — Garth

#142 jess on 11.26.16 at 1:12 pm

9 Andrew Woburn on 11.25.16 at 7:25 pm

..ah the leisure world is upon us!

#143 InvestorsFriend on 11.26.16 at 1:12 pm

Yes Rental vacancies are up in Calgary

The point is simple: in a distressed real estate market, vacancies rise, rents fall and landlords are squeezed. Seems to be the case in Alberta, clearly. — Garth

*************************************
I agree completely with that.

MY point was that some people were misled by a Hope Street study and an erroneous Financial Post headline into thinking that 37% of rental units in Calgary are vacant. That is completely false as well as ludicrous.

The insult-spouting Ogopogo probably can’t be helped but my point there was why should anyone be alarmed that 37% of ADVERTISED for rent properties are vacant. Does Ogopogo think that fully rented units with no pending vacancy are being advertised for rent?

Presumably you only advertise vacant or soon to be vacant units and so this 37% figure is actually surprisingly low if anything.

#144 NoName on 11.26.16 at 1:14 pm

#128 Wild Albertan Gonads on 11.26.16 at 11:31 am

isn that qute, dad on a twitter picture… so we know who he is.

wannabe future canadas pm is “criticizeing” current canada pm. oh kanada…

#145 Context on 11.26.16 at 1:30 pm

#129 Julie K:- An interview was done on you tube with Ronnie Hawkins at his Estate. He disclosed that him and T1 used to smoke weed together. I say big deal as weed is inferior to a brick of hash using a pipe as its more dignified.

#146 Nemesis on 11.26.16 at 1:32 pm

“Castro was inevitable.” — SubComandanteElGartholo

#ButErnestoWasMythic… #”HastaSiempre!”,Or… #Don’tCryForMeHavana… #MartyrsGetTheBestSongs… #AndTheSmoking!HottestLatinas…

https://youtu.be/86LSuXi5TLU

#147 RIL on 11.26.16 at 1:41 pm

Garth:

A note of thanks and on topic.

You alerted me to the debate about taking CPP asap. It is interesting how we all communicate differently. I verbally described the benefit of taking it now to my wife (61 years old) and her eyes glazed over. So I did it up in writing with simple equations showing how if she took it now as opposed to 65, the two lines on the graph cross at about 73 in terms of total moolah received. Her response was “Wow. No brainer”.

I took mine this month at the age of 60. No idea where I will be at the age of 73. Probably on the shuffle board site on the cruise ship from Vancouver to Bella Coola with the geriatric norovirus crowd.

I also convinced my wife, who is in a zero income year to take money out of her RRSP, tax free and put it in her TFSA. She will do it this week and the first week in January in the new taxation year.

I owe you buddy.

#148 TurnerNation on 11.26.16 at 1:48 pm

Waiting for T2 National Day of Mourning for Deceased Commie Family & Friends. (Not to put too fine point on it.)

#149 LL on 11.26.16 at 2:04 pm

#129 – The PM smokes weed???

So?
What about alcohol??

#150 LL on 11.26.16 at 2:04 pm

oh…alcohol is legal…

#151 common sense on 11.26.16 at 2:12 pm

#115 Trader Jim

Fidel gay bashing? The biggest inside joke in Cuba is they referred to Fidel as “The Ace” as he was the top card in the deck…his brother Raul was referred to as “Mariposa” – The Butterfly as he was commonly thought of as being gay and fluttering his hands like a butterfly.

Raul’s daughter is gay and as a result, Raul has honoured gay rights reconizing world pride day to the point I was shocked he was leading the parade televised when I was there last year. Fidel would have allowed this, even when he was no longer El Presidente?

Yes Fidel was a dictator, tyrant, murderer, etc….Please don’t tell me he inflicted more pain on the world compared to many sitting US Presidents over the years…aka The Bush family, Nixon, Obama. At least he took his country back from being a US puppet state although the Cuban people got really no more of a fair shake with him as a ruler.

#152 For those about to flop... on 11.26.16 at 2:14 pm

I’ve never been to Cuba, but whenever I saw images of the country or Castro I always thought of this song that was a hit when I was growing up in Australia…

M42BC

“I can almost smell the perfumed nighs
And see the starry sky
I wish you comin’ with me baby
‘Cause right before my eye
See Castro in the alley way
Talkin’ ’bout missile love
Talkin’ ’bout J.F.K.
And the way he shook him up.”

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BHFFuukk9Y8

#153 common sense on 11.26.16 at 2:14 pm

#132 Smoking Man

I love ya but if you head off the resort some time in Cuba and get to know people when they talk freely, you would be amazed at how many are not brainwashed and free thinking…..just like 20% of us here in Canada.

#154 Transplant on 11.26.16 at 2:24 pm

re. Ogopogo

Undisputed winner of November’s Churl of the Month Award.

Are you the same guy that failed to return your buggy to the cart corral yesterday thereby allowing it to roll into the car parked behind yours?

It must be very challenging to look at yourself every day during your morning shave (or, so as to avoid accusations of gender bias, while applying your makeup) knowing that being the smartest person in every room, you will waste most of your miserable day explaining to everyone you cross paths with how incredibly stupid and simple they are.

#155 hike the rates crash the people on 11.26.16 at 2:32 pm

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/spike-in-interest-rates-could-trigger-housing-crash-cmhc/ar-AAkqpTd?ocid=mailsignout

gov’t downplaying drop in price to calm down the masses

#156 Bottoms_Up on 11.26.16 at 2:48 pm

#135 Ace Goodheart on 11.26.16 at 12:41 pm
————————————
I still think variable wins over the next two-three years. Sure, fixed rates have gone up, but now it looks like prime won’t be going anywhere.

#157 Wild Albertan Gonads on 11.26.16 at 3:11 pm

haha .. even the Wash post is laughing at T2 and his commie butt kissing… how are we gonna turf this clown

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/11/26/trudeau-called-castro-a-remarkable-leader-twitter-imagined-what-he-would-say-about-stalin/?hpid=hp_hp-banner-main_wv-trudeau-136pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

#158 bdwy sktrn on 11.26.16 at 3:11 pm

#131 Anonymous on 11.26.16 at 11:56 am
—-
used the wrong handle there, silly boy. why do you need multilpe handles?

you logic is faulty. your brain is weak.

vancouver’s vacancy rate is a thin hair above zero. the majority of listings for ‘available’ apts (read EMPTY or soon to be vacated) show pics of empty places.

i have placed many ads for rental suites, all with pics, every single time the place was empty, in the **tightest** rental market in north america. i was never so desperate that a month or two between tenants to paint, fix etc. was of any concern.

you are coming across as easily fooled and of a weak mind.

” Do you even realize the magnitude of this crash in rental occupancy?”

what crash???

#159 Wild Albertan Gonads on 11.26.16 at 3:21 pm

Hilarious… the trumpster is gonna cream us with this goof in charge

#trudeaueulogies

#160 Context on 11.26.16 at 3:38 pm

How many did you know that in Cuba condos were built during the 1990’s that could be bought for next to nothing if bought by a friendly foreigner? These are now relatively expensive and must be sold to another foreigner. Just another investment deal I missed and the selling market is opening up slowly too, but there would be tax matters to worry about.

#161 45north on 11.26.16 at 3:40 pm

RIL: darn it is dark in Ft. Mac these days.

because Fort McMurray is 56º 43′ north and it’s winter

which is north of Smithers BC (54º 46′)

but south of Stockholm Sweden (59º 19′ )

#162 Black Friday Walmart Brawler on 11.26.16 at 3:46 pm

Got to tell you, Garth, I really do like you and this blog.

But if you even think of reaching to grab the last Samsung Galaxy 7 on the shelf, I will TOTALLY beat the living crap out of you!!!!!!

#163 RIL on 11.26.16 at 4:21 pm

Well, if I have to submit a comment to have this page refreshed and comments updated I will.

Content?? Hmm?

I am surprised that Quebec (Rouge et Bullion) is such a football powerhouse and factory. I would have thought that the Great Plains out west would have prevailed in that dept.

We have more in common with Oklahoma (home of Smiling Hank Burris) than Gatineau and Trois Rivieres do. Maybe Francophones display fewer concussion symptoms.

Anyone with historical sporting insight that can inform me?

Congrats to Laval in their defeat of my alma mater, U of C Dinosaurs in the national championship.

With 2:33 remaining, I hope this comment is not premature.

#164 Vamanos Pest on 11.26.16 at 5:30 pm

This end game was predictable all along. Identifiable imbalances in the economy, particularly with respect to residential real estate, with policy moves, both fiscal and monetary, that had no chance of actually addressing the problems.

So here we are, extreme economic imbalances with weakening economy, faltering housing prices and Canadian dollar, with no policy bullets left in the gun.

The coming year will be a reckoning, and the pain will be ubiquitous.

Personally, I expect I’ll having trouble having sympathy for those affected, as the underlying path to this calamity was greed.

#165 Ace Goodheart on 11.26.16 at 5:51 pm

RE: #154 Bottoms_Up:

“#135 Ace Goodheart on 11.26.16 at 12:41 pm
————————————
I still think variable wins over the next two-three years. Sure, fixed rates have gone up, but now it looks like prime won’t be going anywhere.”

It’s a tricky decision. Was thinking about it for a while before I decided to lock in at 2.44%.

I just don’t see how I’m going to get less for a five year run. And I can make more than 2.44% on my market stuff so no point cashing in and paying out the rental building. I’m still making about 3% on the spread. And the rental pays for itself and earns about 12K per year on top of that (granted taxed at top marginal rates). There is no possibility of problems finding tenants (it is in Toronto in a “hot zone” – tenants in the basement gave notice – and already I am getting calls from new prospectives – apparently word gets out really quickly, don’t have to advertise).

All in all it seemed like the right decision.

I can’t see how mortgage rates will be less than 2.44% From what I can see with what is happening with the bond markets, the rates have to go up. As soon as you start trashing long term bonds with these spikes in yields, that creates a tsunami of sorts that will just ripple through the markets. There’s no turning back from that.

At any rate time will tell.

#166 Ben on 11.26.16 at 6:08 pm

Hey Garth,

If the BoC decides to cut next year, is it possible / likely the banks would not pass those savings onto consumers since their cost of borrowing will be going up through rising bond rates from potentially 2 fed hikes?