Lessons

beater-modified

The Friday before Trump, the Dow sat at 17,888. Market-timers had just taken their own assets and those of their clients into cash positions. They anticipated a storm.

This week, Wednesday, the Dow closed at 19,083. That’s an increase of 6.7% in 11 trading days since the election. In other words, a whole year’s worth of advance in less than a fortnight. We all know the reasons. The goofy billionaire has promised massive spending, big tax cuts, plus whatever-it-takes policies to grow the US economy, all coated in anti-trade protectionism.

So, the stock-pickers blew it. Again. Because market timing doesn’t work. Especially now.

Equally creamed were those who believed a Trump win would trash the US dollar (it just soared to the highest level in a decade), or send billions in worried money into safe havens like gold. The yellow metal, in fact, has turned into a wealth trap. Look  what happened since the Trumpster won.

gold-t

So while stocks added 6.7% since the vote, gold has shed $150 an ounce, or about 11%. Ouch. In fact bullion’s down 37% since hitting its recent high six years ago. Yuge disaster.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields have just jumped a little more – to a 16-month high – and prices declined further. The historic unwinding of the bond market is now in its third week, a fact which has already pushed some Canadian banks to goose their mortgage rates. At the same time, Bay Streeters are tightening credit by the hour, preparing for what comes next. You’ll have some more news on that shortly, according to my pinstriped luncheon date today.

If the Fed doesn’t start normalizing interest rates again on December 14th, markets will be shocked, since the odds are now 100%. As mentioned earlier this week, 2017 will bring another two moves. The next change by the Bank of Canada will be up, not down, and likely come within 12 months. Of course, by then mortgages will have increased several times.

There’s more. US consumer confidence is shooting through the roof. The latest survey shows the deplorables to be the most hopeful they’ve been in an entire decade. Now 37% of households expect their personal finances to improve in 2017 with higher wages and more jobs. Speaking of which, the American unemployment rate is solidly below 5% and approaching the point at which economists declare full employment.

This week came news that orders for durable goods have coursed higher, unexpectedly. Prices for copper, tin, aluminum and zinc continue to rise on the expectation of increased demand as $500 billion is spent on American infrastructure. While gold sinks, lead is ascending – now at the highest level in half a decade.

Well, there are lessons here.

First, never bet against America. You’ll lose. For a few years this blog has been urging you to maintain a heavier weighting in US and international growth assets, and less in maple. In fact, it should be 2-to-1. Of the 60% growth component in a 60/40 balanced portfolio, keep the beaver stuff to about 17%.

Second, never listen to the simpletons and alarmist bullion-lickers who espouse holding precious metals. Especially in the physical form. This has been a consistently losing strategy for years, a pattern is likely to continue. These metals are rocks paying neither interest nor dividends, are highly volatile and emotional, and won’t protect a single pimple on your butt if there were to be an economic crisis. You live in dollars. Collect them instead. And hoard kibble.

Third, get ready for higher rates. Consistently higher. Relentlessly high. No spike, but instead a steady drumbeat of elevated money costs that almost everybody you know never expected. Since Canadian households are among the most indebted in the world – and carry a much higher burden than American families – you can imagine what this might do to real estate over a period of time.

Fourth, (this bears repeating) anyone who thinks they can foretell market moves, ‘add alpha’ to a client’s portfolio by diddling with daily weightings or day-trade their way to wealth, is a fool. I’ve seen seasoned advisors sit on giant piles of cash all the way through a bull market, instead of remaining fully invested in wisely diversified portfolios. It’s why balance works. When crap happens, volatility’s reduced. When the sun shines, up she goes. Because you never know when the best (or worst) days will occur, staying invested is the only logical approach. To think otherwise is to be an egoist or a con.

Lots to learn from a Trump. Not the man, but the event. He may become the worst leader of our times. But he turned the page.

205 comments ↓

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.23.16 at 5:53 pm

For a Boomer
Balanced and diversified portfolios are like expandable waistline blue jeans….

Necessary and comforting

#2 Bram on 11.23.16 at 5:53 pm

I completely agree about not trying to time the market.
I disagree with your term “stock picker” though.

I invest in any market, bull, bear, flat, as I know that timing is impossible and any time you are not invested, you are not getting paid dividends.

But I do think there is a place for stock picking.
In every market, in every season, there are stocks with good fundamentals that are relatively cheap. Just buy those and hold.

Is a market overvalued with high PE ratios?
Still keep buying, but buy those stocks that are on sale.
Even in a hot overbought market, there are bargains to be had.
Your stock screener is your friend.

Stock picker: Yes sir! Market timer? Nope!

#3 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 11.23.16 at 5:56 pm

Sorry realtors you lies will not work anymore. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#4 jay on 11.23.16 at 6:02 pm

Garth , they should have a wall like this on Bay st if the market drops. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBoChxNqbCQ

#5 Michael Motorcycle on 11.23.16 at 6:09 pm

How did you arrive at 17% for Beaver in a 60/40?

Carefully. — Garth

#6 jay on 11.23.16 at 6:11 pm

Trumps son in law , the puppet master? http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/10/jared-trump-trump-campaign

#7 Dan on 11.23.16 at 6:11 pm

Well I hope that everyone in neoliberal media who tried so hard (and trying) to deny Trump’s presidency, will loose their jobs. Neoliberalism Is worse than fascism because fascists take care of their own. In neoliberal agenda everybody is on its own. How many people are killed by drones at the order of Nobel peace winner? How many women were pleasuring Clinton in Oval office? How much money Clintons got by blackmailing people? But Trump is war criminal, rapist and thief, no? We spread democracy by drones, by knives, by bombs. When we do that, we call themselves democrats and liberals and neoliberals.
And every time we commit crime, it is called The New World Order. Well, soon again we will teach our children to use a school desk to protect themselves against nukes. Shame is a no longer a word in western
languages. But the most important thing however is to have freedom to marry your same sex partner. Because you are not hungry and you are not sleeping on the streets of Turdonto. So now when your basic needs are met it is natural that you wish to upgrade.

Dude. Need help. — Garth

#8 Godly on 11.23.16 at 6:23 pm

There is currently an economic crisis happening in Venezuela and India. Both citizens are scrambling for gold bullion.
You do not know economic history. You were wrong about negative interests rates in Canada to.

#9 Toronto Market Has Started To Crash on 11.23.16 at 6:25 pm

Spoke to my friend today, her hubby is a well known Toronto realtor. Seems they know the jig is up and the market is changing. They are starting to admit to their inner circle that we are headed for a crash in the next little while, spring. The peak has past. I know people don’t want to admit this but I have been seeing evidence in my neck of Toronto proper and had confirmation today by someone who survey knows the real story.

#10 Goldie on 11.23.16 at 6:25 pm

Trump recently invited the TV network heads to his office in Trump tower, NYC. He scolded them all for being liars and then kicked them out. Beautiful, but I somehow doubt it will do much to temper their biased coverage against him.
OTOH, Trump’s reaction to the “Hamilton” actors accosting Mike Pence was rather teen-aged girlish in nature so that’s a little disappointing, unless it was done in sarcasm.

#11 Paula on 11.23.16 at 6:27 pm

This is speculative. Once Trump enters the White House as official President, the stock market will crash and the Canadian dollar will become a safe haven or even a Reserve Currency.

House prices are only going up in Toronto! Trump is helping the real estate market in Canada increase in value because so many Americans want to live in our great country.

The Canadian dollar will rise again over 90 cents by mid-2017. Ihope so, because I want to take a 4-week vacation in Dubai.

It’s not easy being a full-time female employee of a Crown corporation in Toronto. P.S. I don’t care if I keep applications sitting on my desk while I take my vacation + plus sick days off. I don’t care. It’s hard being a woman.

#12 Millenial-falcon on 11.23.16 at 6:35 pm

Lots to learn from a Trump. Not the man, but the event. He may become the worst leader of our times. But he turned the page.
——–
Wow that’s a bold claim considering he hasn’t even taken office yet, turned the page to what ? A heartland revival of middle America? I doubt it. What about the trillions in debt sloshing around at zero interest rates ? How will this debt be serviced with increasing rates ? Everything is not awesome. And we’ve heard all described in this post many many many times before

#13 Smartalox on 11.23.16 at 6:36 pm

For what it’s worth, and speaking as a metallurgist, though holding physical gold won’t prevent pimples on your butt, both silver and copper have anti-biotc properties, in addition to their ornamental value.

Gauze coated with silver has been used to speed the healing of wounds, particularly large burns that may be susceptible to infection.

Brass (an alloy of copper and zinc) used to be frequently used on door knobs and handles because it reacts with air and natural humidity to neutralize bacteria and viruses spread by hand-to-surface contact.

Platinum can also be used as a catalyst to initiate the oxidation (burning) of hydrocarbons, like methane or alcohols at room temperature.

I recall a comment from Warren Buffet, that he preferred to invest in copper than hold gold: “it’s a lot cheaper, and you can DO things with it!”

#14 Polls R Phake on 11.23.16 at 6:39 pm

Billions are going into gold. The Indians are piling into it right now because they are trying to get rid of their soon to be worthless paper. Plus the USA controls the paper market. Of which there is less then 1% to back it physically.

News flash. This isn’t India. — Garth

#15 AR on 11.23.16 at 6:45 pm

Would be instructive to compare the balanced portfolio return over the same time frame (pre/post election)? Lost a little on fixed income and foreign ETF’s, but gained on US and Canadian equity ETF’s. +1% ?

#16 Smartalox on 11.23.16 at 6:45 pm

@Goldie #10:

Trump’s twitter kvetching about the cast of “Hamilton” daring to speak directly to Mike Pence, would deny the cast their constitutional rights to assemble, and to speak freely.

Not a good start for someone who has been elected to, and will soon swear to, defend the constitution, and the rights that it confers on ALL Americans.

That’s not sarcasm, it’s hypocrisy.

#17 Polls R Phake on 11.23.16 at 6:46 pm

#14 Polls R Phake on 11.23.16 at 6:39 pm
Billions are going into gold. The Indians are piling into it right now because they are trying to get rid of their soon to be worthless paper. Plus the USA controls the paper market. Of which there is less then 1% to back it physically.

News flash. This isn’t India. — Garth

__________________________________________

Oh I’m sorry. I thought we lived in a world of global commodity prices. I guess I was mistaken.

#18 John on 11.23.16 at 7:01 pm

Higher interest rates across the entire huge debt load in all asset classes don’t seem to support the irrational glee spiking equities. Ask bonds all about it. Consider that the US government hits its debt ceiling around March 2017. Consider that the Republicans control both the Senate and Congress. Consider that exploding debt ceiling higher to fund infrastructure while chopping taxes for the top 5% and we can conclude Trump ain’t be draining any swamp. He’s gonna get swamped over himself. So the water gets sucked out and the returns swamping all asset classes. Trump rhymes with chump…..

#19 Andrew Woburn on 11.23.16 at 7:03 pm

– New Record Set for Empty Rental Homes in Major Alberta Centres

“Edmonton area private Landlords continue to suffer losses in a flat rental market. The 90 day period ending on October 31 saw an average of 5211 Edmonton homes available for rent on any given day with an asking rent of $1168. This figure was blended to include numerous property types: Houses with 3 bedrooms or less, Executive homes with 4 bedrooms or more, one and two bedroom apartment style condos respectively, suited or laneway rentals, and townhomes. Of Edmonton’s 5211 available homes, 21% or 1094 of them were considered advertised and vacant representing a bad loss to Edmonton Landlords of roughly $1.28M per month, which translates to a daily loss of roughly $42,600 due to rental homes sitting vacant.

The statistics suggest that Calgary area Landlords are worse hit than their counterparts to the north: the same 90 day period saw an average of 8102 Calgary homes available for rent on any given day with a blended average asking rent of $1477. Of these homes, 37% or 2998 were considered advertised and vacant which represented a bad loss of $4.43M per month or $147,700 per day.”

http://www.financialpost.com/news/business-wire/view.html?releaseId=20161123005691&releaseLang=en

#20 Buying a house now in TO B4 its too L8! on 11.23.16 at 7:08 pm

Toronto is the largest city in Canada. There is no flipping way that house prices will ever decline now.

I should definitely buy the house now before I have to pay another 50k in higher prices next season!

There is soemthing “world class” about the great city of Toronto, making it the in-demand destination for a career, education or vacation.

My wife also wants me to buy now. The house is listed at $1.125 million, but it’s near one of the best public high schools in Canada. I do not mind paying an extra thousand or more in property tax education premiums. Toronto is only going to get better as a city, and I want to invest in my wife and future family’s future in this great city.

#21 Chaddywack on 11.23.16 at 7:13 pm

At the same time BC Premier Christy Clark…..RENTS?

https://www.biv.com/article/2016/11/exclusive-premiers-landlord-linked-whitecaps-owner/

I definitely learned something new today. That shocked me since she leads such a house-pumping government Maybe she’s waiting to swoop on the inevitable correction as well?

Also ICBC is going to stop insuring luxury cars over $150k. I’m sure someone will say this is “racist” and “targets the Chinese” as well……

#22 John on 11.23.16 at 7:19 pm

Republican Senate and Congress will deny raising the debt ceiling higher. March 2017. End of the line. Swamp sinks Trump and we all go down with the ship.

#23 TRT on 11.23.16 at 7:21 pm

The reason gold is dropping is because of India and not Trump.

Chatter is that India is set to ban imports of gold to help fight corruption and the underground economy.

Demand will suffer. Gold expect to drop to $800usd/oz

Greenback rising, gold dropping. Bullion bunnies always have a for-sure reason their losses are temporary. — Garth

#24 The Technical Analyst on 11.23.16 at 7:24 pm

“So, the stock-pickers blew it. Again. Because market timing doesn’t work. Especially now.”

Ok, so there is no thing as a Technical Analyst then I guess?

Gez, better call the University and give back my educational creds. In fact, let me call my trading desk and brokers as well and let them know they are out of work too.

#25 Doug t on 11.23.16 at 7:30 pm

I’m bullish on a bear market in 2017 – invest in glock and kimber cause those nutty yanks can’t stop themselves from buying more guns.
The peasants are revolting – and they smell bad too

#26 TraderX on 11.23.16 at 7:32 pm

Garth, it really irks me how you pick and choose statistics to support your claims. You can’t pick the top in gold and then comment how its down 37%.

How about you mention to people that if they are relying on the average 7% return you keep talking about in order to have enough to retire… that the final 10 years prior to retirement are essential… without that, they won’t get the doubling of their portfolio they so desperately need.

So what happens if they hit a low growth, such as we have seen happen… can you give us that stat!

#27 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.23.16 at 7:33 pm

#138 Wiggle Room on 11.23.16 at 1:12 pm

Hey Garth,

What’s up with allowing these super sexist comments? I don’t really like reading crap from angry haters who refer to women as “feminazis.” Yes, I get that this is the Internet and comment sections draw out all the crazies, but if you’re deleting (I assume) racist comments then why leave up the sexist ones?

Posted this to the last post and wanted to make sure it’s read, although could end up deleted. I think a lot of men are starting to feel the same way;

I don’t know about every other guy on this blog but I long for good old fashioned feminism. You know the kind where a woman is a… woman and can make any man do for her anything because she is worthy of all that and more.

Today it seems women are preoccupied with being… men, manly or equivalent. They drive bad ass trucks, demand to be welcomed in traditional guy domains, have tattoos up the ying yang. Don’t get me wrong I like a capable woman but lately… Who the **** wants anything to do with that?!?

I think women are loosing their fight and many of them are starting to realize it. Not loosing it so much as it backfiring on them. “Feminazis”? Good moniker for where it’s got to.

And then on top of it all… “house horny” is a by far and away a female condition that men, for the right woman, will willingly dole out what ever amount is required to alleviate the angst… for the right woman. But for a ball busting heifer… not so much… maybe something with a Goodyear foundation.

#28 Nesc on 11.23.16 at 7:33 pm

Could be the best..
He might come off the handle on every issue but when the facts are presented he usually moves into the middle.. where the vast majority of people are.
A text book right or left person is pretty well ridiculous.

#29 Doghouse Dweller on 11.23.16 at 7:35 pm

Taunting the bullion bunnies are we ?
The Barbarous Relic has done quite well against the Canadian dollar. Wealth preservation in Canadian $ terms.

http://tinyurl.com/jcwlqqv

#30 Pepito on 11.23.16 at 7:36 pm

What the market giveth the market can taketh. Lots of hot air euphoria now. Staying on the sidelines may well still be rewarded. Who knows? Brexit and trump are just the beginning. Watch Europe next. The big picture is still pretty ugly. A 1000 points on the Dow certainly didn’t change that.

#31 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.23.16 at 7:43 pm

Equally creamed were those who believed a Trump win would trash the US dollar (it just soared to the highest level in a decade)

I definitely didn’t expect THAT! Ppl who have bet against the USD have lost a lot of money over the last 5 years. If it hits parity w the euro I guess I’ll be wintering over this year!

#32 nonplused on 11.23.16 at 7:43 pm

I here kibble is pretty good if you slather it with brown gravy, which is also pretty cheep if you buy the big bags of powdered stuff.

#33 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.23.16 at 7:44 pm

Poor gold.

Below $1200/oz

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/mining/tough-times-gold-prices-sink-below-1200-for-first-time-in-nearly-a-year

Crappy useless rock

#34 MF on 11.23.16 at 7:45 pm

#6 jay on 11.23.16 at 6:11 pm

A genius, and I am a fan of him.

MF

#35 Freedom First on 11.23.16 at 7:46 pm

Yes. Whether buying a house, or any asset, the time to take advantage of opportunities to buy is when prices have dropped approx. 30 to 70%. And to be able to do this at all times. The time to sell or rebalance, is when the #’s tell you too.

Please know this, I am no good at picking the exact top or exact bottom. And I am always invested.

Trust me. It is just as hard to pull the trigger to sell/rebalance as it is to pull the trigger to buy/rebalance. Fear or Greed is as deadly as debt.

However, I can understand just how much harder it would be if I had anyone in my life who believed that they had the right to think for me.

I am a simple man. I like to always be debt free, have solid cash flow, a wide variety of income streams from different liquid sources, and an always growing net worth. I need it, as I am a man.

Of course, and this is also vital, I want to travel when I want, ski when I want, golf when I want, etc. etc. etc. And the biggest one of all, not have to care what anyone thinks. Except for me.

After all, and this is very important, how could I possibly be helping others if I am not properly looking after myself in every way.

And I don’t mean by helping someone to buy a house or whatever. Help always, enable never.

007
Freedom First
Master of Freedomonics

#36 vulcan without ears on 11.23.16 at 7:47 pm

A market correction has been due for some time. Trump is only pushing it back later. It will only be more brutal. As Alan greenspan once said, “the market is suffering from irrational exuberance … but I agree with the balanced portfolio but with a 20% weighting in the money market and 5% invested in gold stocks which pay dividends only …

#37 Ray Skunk on 11.23.16 at 7:47 pm

Noticed a few posts over this past week from people – or one person – claiming that the Toronto market is going down.

An observation from the front lines. Near my place (decent hood), as seen from a streetcar, there are three houses next door to one another – presumed rentals (you can tell by the lack of maintenance/junk/multi mailboxes) – and all three are for sale by the same agent/brokerage.

Seems to me one landlord is liquidating their portfolio.

Anecdotal, but caught my eye.

#38 Smoking Man on 11.23.16 at 7:47 pm

Lots to learn from a Trump. Not the man, but the event. He may become the worst leader of our times. But he turned the page.-Garth

Bay street and wall street should give me a medal of some kind. I used all the power of the UCC to get him elected. It wasent an easy task. I even called it in chat section of the football pool. Bet Accordingly.

Yet no reward.

I’m the house of the rising sun again and people are openly wearing those red ball caps that read Make America Great Again…The fear of being called a rasists and all those ugly labels msm tossed around like confetti evaporating quickly.

Trump is walking back alot of the things he said that gave him billions in free air time and helped get him elected.

And yes it is the man. Donald Trump. Don’t think the clients at Turner investments are felling that bad. Up huge I assume.

But I do get it. You showing that he’s still not your favorite. Jesus, if I was a well known person living in mind twisted lefty loonville I’d be playing it the same way.

But lucky for me I’m a fictional character in one of the best books ever written that no one is buying.

Unemployed I can get away with.

#39 InvestorsFriend on 11.23.16 at 7:47 pm

Stock Picking is not market Timing

#2 Bram on 11.23.16 at 5:53 pm said to Garth:

I completely agree about not trying to time the market.
I disagree with your term “stock picker” though.

****************************************
Agreed, picking stocks and staying invested in equities is not market timing.

Stock pickers on average cannot beat the market average but half of them can beat the other half.

Those with a sensible approach to stock picking can usually find others to beat.

Stock picking can be financially fattening and also is a great hobby and a great learning experience. But those less skilled can go broke doing it.

Good stock pickers benefit from the poor ones. That is the simple math of the matter.

I am a stock picker but not a market timer.

#40 InvestorsFriend on 11.23.16 at 7:51 pm

What Goes Up Can Stay Up

Pepito on 11.23.16 at 7:36 pm said:

What the market giveth the market can taketh.

************************************
True the market CAN take away the gains. But in the long term stock markets rise and make higher highs.

#41 InvestorsFriend on 11.23.16 at 7:56 pm

To the Technical Analysts of the World

Thank you so much for existing since fundamental analysts need someone to beat. Much appreciated.

Technical Analysis in reality is neither technical nor analysis. There is nothing technical about it. And since it does not look at the fundamentals of a company it is not analysis. It is just chart reading.

Technical Analysis promotes Buy high and sell low. (Buy what has gone up, sell what has gone down)

Again, thank you. Thanks a $ million.

#42 ANON on 11.23.16 at 8:00 pm

No spike

Yes, spike. Fear is a non-linear event.

#43 westcdn on 11.23.16 at 8:00 pm

The greatest problem I have had as an investor is to look through all the noise. It’s like everyone wants to speak to me at once. Everyone is entitled to put their brain to work and form an opinion. I just think too many listen to the wrong stuff and turn off their brain. I guess I could call it bias.

Sandra Jansen crossed the floor in Alberta politics. She didn’t appear to recognise she was being trolled. I don’t like this because innocent men will pay – and there a lot more of us than trolls. If you want to turn more men into trolls – then carry on. Besides she doesn’t know if it was a woman was the originator.

I pray for the lives of people under this kind of leadership. The bond market is making my head ready to explode. I till think deflation is a greater threat than inflation so I think stepping into bonds now is a good idea. Then I fret if the bond market falls (interest returns rise) then bond values will fall and my bet would die.

So I will avoid anything to do with a bank. I just have to see whether the USA enters a recession in 2017, then deploy my cash. I don’t see an answer but I know most current investment advisors are old school – Keysians.

Then I read an article asking if Trump was schizophrenic. Oh God, why can’t let a normal guy or woman win?

#44 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 11.23.16 at 8:10 pm

#20

Keep lying to yourself and your clients. The RE Ponzi is falling as we speak. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#45 Mark M. on 11.23.16 at 8:12 pm

Donald Trump took a math problem and turned into a morale problem. A quick boost of optimism and the quandary of too much debt has disappeared.

So much so, that he’s adding even more debt at higher interest rates and cutting taxes while undergoing a huge infrastructure project.

What could possibly go wrong?

Never bet against the US, eh? How about never say “never”?

#46 Lol @ #20 poster on 11.23.16 at 8:13 pm

Obviously a fresh off the boat realtor about to get no commission cheques ever again….

#47 Smoking Man on 11.23.16 at 8:15 pm

Go-Go girls at Seneca tonight….such a distraction while working on book 2. The sequel.

Altho drugs, alcohol and cigarettes have renderd me useless in the game of reproduction. It’s still fun being a man and letting my imagenation run wild.

I’m not ashamed of either.

#48 Context on 11.23.16 at 8:22 pm

#13 Smartalox:- You are correct and the silver is the most effective against bacteria and viruses. Guess where the highest concentration of germs can be found? While filling your car with gas, the handle that you squeeze becomes deadly so wear gloves or wash your hands quickly.

#49 Fellow Vancouverite on 11.23.16 at 8:23 pm

#20 take Out the “ING” from Buying, and we have a Realtor SPAM.

If it isn’t Realtor scamming, you’re better off saving that $10,000 and spending it in Nevada where a certain type of entertainment is legal in two counties.

To make it more convincing…Judging that you may be from Toronto, I can safely say that you’re better off splurging that extra $10,000 in Nevada definitely!

It is a more feasible option to get the time of your life in Nevada, than to waste your life on some wife who is probably a graduate from those SJW universities like UofT, York, or Ryerson.

You will not regret it in Nevada…DON’T waste money on the housing bubble in that SJW city called Toronto, Ontario.

The best part of Toronto is seeing it from a rear view mirror leaving Toronto. It’s not a joke!

#50 kenneth on 11.23.16 at 8:26 pm

I learned Garth’s lesson about housing 3 years ago. Good thing too, I lost my job and have been able to live off the proceeds for the past 3 years. It is bad in Calgary, real bad.

#51 Smoking Man on 11.23.16 at 8:28 pm

Once I get a bit more looped I’ll be doing selfies with some dancers. If I get really looped I’ll post some on twitter.

Nothing else matters when your a fiction writer.

I’m thinking about james. He’s gone. Was hopping he stook around so he could help him. I’m thinking the dude or what ever it was is a good shit that need help from us blog dogs. The trump win must have sent it over the deep end.

#52 A Yank in BC on 11.23.16 at 8:28 pm

Please allow me to suggest that using the 11-day increase in the Dow is cherry-picking at its absolute finest. The S&P is only up half that amount, and a 60/40 balanced portfolio which includes the S&P 500, some developed Int’l, and a total bond fund is actually down .03% over that same 11 days.

Good thing you don’t build portfolios. Why would you have 40% in a bond fund? — Garth

#53 DON on 11.23.16 at 8:28 pm

“Lots to learn from a Trump. Not the man, but the event. He may become the worst leader of our times. But he turned the page.”

********************

I think we already had the worst leader(s) of our times that’s how we (collectively) got to where we currently are. Lack of forward thinking or will to do so. Leaders come in with self interest and go out with millions. The system of checks and balances is a candidate for a major overhaul.

#54 AK on 11.23.16 at 8:33 pm

“Equally creamed were those who believed a Trump win would trash the US dollar (it just soared to the highest level in a decade)”
——————————————————————
Have not seen nothing yet. The U.S. Dollar will test the 1985 high of $135.26 which occurred under Mr. Reagan.

#55 not 1st on 11.23.16 at 8:34 pm

Garth is misunderstanding Trump and the movement again like he did for the past year.

Trump is going to make America fully employed in construction not baristas and bartenders and maids turning down sheets. Thats a big difference. And hopefully he will bring in the 100 million under employed back into the fold as well. Garth never talks about that number.

He is going to put that fed on a leash right away as soon as he is president. He has stated he is a low interest guy and he needs to tap the lowest rates in history to finance his plan. So yellen will slip in a hike in dec and then be locked back in the kennel after that.

As Garth’s college said if you are going to be in debt you might s well have something of value backing it. Obama and the fed added 15 trillion of fairy dust money to the debt that went nowhere. You could have repaved every road and rebuilt every bridge and skyscaper in the US for that sum.

#56 Stomper on 11.23.16 at 8:35 pm

#20 good luck with that!!!!

#57 DON on 11.23.16 at 8:35 pm

#7 Dan on 11.23.16 at 6:11 pm
Well I hope that everyone in neoliberal media who tried so hard (and trying) to deny Trump’s presidency, will loose their jobs. Neoliberalism Is worse than fascism because fascists take care of their own. In neoliberal agenda everybody is on its own. How many people are killed by drones at the order of Nobel peace winner? How many women were pleasuring Clinton in Oval office? How much money Clintons got by blackmailing people? But Trump is war criminal, rapist and thief, no? We spread democracy by drones, by knives, by bombs. When we do that, we call themselves democrats and liberals and neoliberals.
And every time we commit crime, it is called The New World Order. Well, soon again we will teach our children to use a school desk to protect themselves against nukes. Shame is a no longer a word in western
languages. But the most important thing however is to have freedom to marry your same sex partner. Because you are not hungry and you are not sleeping on the streets of Turdonto. So now when your basic needs are met it is natural that you wish to upgrade.

Dude. Need help. — Garth
***********************

I always wondered why Obama got the peace prize can anyone remember??? Rages war and hides behind the peace prize.

Until the system is changed it does not matter who you vote in, please tell me I am wrong. I hope I am.

#58 Harbour on 11.23.16 at 8:49 pm

Garth your site has been on the fritz lately

49 comments

21 show

happens more often then not

Refresh, then shower. — Garth

#59 Deano on 11.23.16 at 8:50 pm

Here’s a real head shaker proposal I got today. A long time friend, gov’t worker, juicy pension for retirement, no liquid assets that I’m aware of and has 2 home’s for rental income which are mortgaged to the hilt. She asked me today if I could invest $1000 she would give me in the marijuana stocks she’s heard about recently. Her cousin just made a wack of money lately and she wants in and could I just pay her maybe $100 a month from the ongoing profits of this adventure. I politely declined mentioning that I’m not qualified to invest your money, I do my own money management but that’s it. I don’t know how Garth does it, he must get this several time a day. It’s so true that the average Canuk has no investment clue and that’s sad.

#60 Harbour on 11.23.16 at 8:51 pm

but if i make a post i’m up to date

shows 58 comments now

#61 DON on 11.23.16 at 8:51 pm

#10 Goldie on 11.23.16 at 6:25 pm
Trump recently invited the TV network heads to his office in Trump tower, NYC. He scolded them all for being liars and then kicked them out. Beautiful, but I somehow doubt it will do much to temper their biased coverage against him.
OTOH, Trump’s reaction to the “Hamilton” actors accosting Mike Pence was rather teen-aged girlish in nature so that’s a little disappointing, unless it was done in sarcasm.
**************
Sometimes you have the play the game they play in order to get the point across.

Over on CBC the media (CBC) is getting a talking to by commenters. Dissent is rising as expected as the media no longer performs the role of investigative journalism. Hence why this blog is more important than ever for a source of truth and honesty.

#62 The Most Interesting Man in The World on 11.23.16 at 8:51 pm

Balanced portfolios use me to level themselves.

#63 Smoking Man on 11.23.16 at 8:52 pm

James come back , I’m board ..

https://youtu.be/lDUwXFvTJfA

Guess that was too much to take…. Remember you have just as much a chance at winning me over to your side as much as I have getting on the right team. Chucking labels ain’t going to do it. Solid dabate on points is the only way.

You up for the challange . Trigger warning. Don’t click on the link. It will unhinge you.

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.23.16 at 8:52 pm

@#11 Paula & #20

Paula…..I’d like to introduce you to Moron-a.

I think you two will have a lot in common.

#65 Joe Schmoe on 11.23.16 at 8:56 pm

Too much Trump talk these days. Good or bad it happened. He is not alone in developing and executing policy.

What about our own little polite morons? The bare chested leader is in Liberia and Madagascar to encourage relations. Think of the economic opportunities this brings Canada! Make Peru and Cuba look like Micronesia in comparison…

Meanwhile, even CBC is getting frustrated with JT’s muzzling of the MPs. Instead of terse emails/no comment, they get smiles and sunny ways talk, but no answers.

Even Neil MacDonald is getting peeved in the lack of disclosure of the growing deficit.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/liberals-infrastructure-bank-1.3862634

Our own little government is going to do way more harm to my economic situation than the markets.

Any takers on how high taxes will go for the “rich folk” who make more than 200K? When do the “rich folk” become those who make $120K? $85K?

#66 Context on 11.23.16 at 8:56 pm

#3 Happy Housing:- Do realtors lie as trust nobody which includes the mortgage brokers. One day I went to see my friend big Al who was on the phone with a client and he waved me to sit down. The guy on the phone was upset as the lender wouldn’t renew his first mortgage for $500,000 and he was self-employed with no income as kept two sets of books. X numbered company had called his loan so Al said no problem as his other lender Y numbered company had funds to place. He would give him a special deal with fees and legal costs at $12,000 and would commit $512,000 to pay the jerk off and close out a new 1st mortgage 4/25 with 1 year closed and 3 fully open subject to a 2 month bonus of interest penalty. Deal was done with another happy client. I stared at him and said $12,000 for what? He replied what is the problem and said you own both lending companies – go figure!

#67 El presidente trumpster on 11.23.16 at 8:58 pm

Go trumpster go. My portfolio luvs ya. Lord emperor of the world. The bonus with lower bullion is it will cost less for the new gold plated toilets in the White House.

#68 Bob dog on 11.23.16 at 9:02 pm

Damn…. looks like season 4 of Yukon Gold Is going to be a bummer. That show is the only think that restores my patriotism after living in Vancouver for 9 long long years.

#69 Kelowna on 11.23.16 at 9:03 pm

Great post Garth and I completely support your key messages. With the Trumpster’s promises to build walls, encourage energy spending with reduced environmental reviews, build manufacturing, double-down on infrastructure spending etc., etc., this is going to one very interesting ride!
I couldn’t agree with you more that there has never been a better time to be fully invested in the markets!!

#70 Bond Junkie on 11.23.16 at 9:05 pm

All you coco puffs claiming to be at ground zero for the Toronto housing crash really have to get your heads checked. Like seriously, go get an MRI and fast. House down the street from me at Keele and Bloor listed last Friday @ 1.99. Open house this weekend sold with 6 bidders on Tuesday. Go check it out for yourself Google ‘Mongo House’. It’s the new Fraser Beach alternative but I’ve already said too much. Fact of the matter is there are just way way too many people in Toronto making too much money. I literally know hundreds of people making hundreds of thousands of dollars. I’m not bragging those are just facts. How many lawyers, doctors, IAs, hedge fund managers, PMs, career bureaucrats, seniors execs, entrepreneurs, research analysts, actuaries, high paid sales professionals, sell side traders and sales people (I cud go on) do you think work in this city?? Thousands. Literally thousands of people making hundreds of thousands of dollars. Those two million dollar prices tags, they are paid off on 6-8yrs tops, TOPS. Anyhoo, everyone also knows that seasonally speaking nobody buys a house after Remembrance Day. Come on people, the appropriate anecdotal observations should be made in Feb-Apr. if houses are ‘sitting’ and ‘devoid’ of interest at that point then fine, maybe things are really slowing down and I deserve some egg on my face but making observations on this market in NOVEMBER!!? HA. That’s the equivalent of Homer trying to cash in on his pumpkin futures after Halloween. I really just do not see it. Prime 416 is rock solid.

BJ

#71 vampiresquid on 11.23.16 at 9:08 pm

Trump has made my portfolio great again. This is setting up to be my best year since 2009.

All accounts ex TFSA, I’m up 44% YTD Nov 22.

For TFSA, I’m up 90% YTD Nov 22.

This isn’t a 60/40 balanced model since I view my defined pension as my fixed income and I have a high tolerance for risk.

So, it’s all equities and cash. Equities are barbelled between 15 yr+ hold on Cdn financials and 1-3 year holds on micro to small cap energy, biotech and tech stocks.

#72 Freedom First on 11.23.16 at 9:10 pm

#47 Smoking Man

Didn’t buy your book yet Smokey. Don’t want to spoil it for when your first movie comes out. And I’m already excited to hear there will be a sequel. Told you before. I’m thinking Oscar.

Fan #33

#73 Smoking Man on 11.23.16 at 9:12 pm

Bond Junkie.

Don’t even bother trying … people don’t know how to live.

Thanks for buying the book. How about a review. On here.

#74 Smoking Man on 11.23.16 at 9:19 pm

72 Freedom First on 11.23.16 at 9:10 pm
#47 Smoking Man

Didn’t buy your book yet Smokey. Don’t want to spoil it for when your first movie comes out. And I’m already excited to hear there will be a sequel. Told you before. I’m thinking Oscar.

Fan #33
….
It would not be flattering to your life style. I throw men under the bus in it. Especualy man proffesors and lesbians. Chicks buy books, dudes don’t.

I’m an entrepreneur first that sucks at marketing.

It will catch on one day. When? no idea.

Hoping the 25 people that bought it will help out.

#75 Maj on 11.23.16 at 9:19 pm

#10 Goldie on 11.23.16 at 6:25 pm
#16 Smartalox on 11.23.16 at 6:45 pm

“Trump’s reaction to the “Hamilton” actors accosting Mike Pence”

was an effective way to divert people’s attention from the news story about Trump agreeing to pay a yuge $25M to settle Trump University fraud case.

#76 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.23.16 at 9:25 pm

Have not seen nothing yet. The U.S. Dollar will test the 1985 high of $135.26 which occurred under Mr. Reagan.

I just wet myself

#77 Stock picker on 11.23.16 at 9:26 pm

Sorry to offend G, but as a stock picker every day has been a massive party. I’m up several hundred grand since The Big Dog was elected, thank you. Specific targeted picks in bank and energy have increased double digits . You can’t get that buying 6% index fund. Thank you, I didnt get crushed, quite opposite.

#78 Maj on 11.23.16 at 9:26 pm

#27 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.23.16 at 7:33 pm

Dude. You need help.

#79 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.23.16 at 9:28 pm

James come back , I’m board ..

Poor James got schooled by SM. Rekt

#80 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.23.16 at 9:31 pm

All you coco puffs claiming to be at ground zero for the Toronto housing crash really have to get your heads checked. Like seriously, go get an MRI and fast.

I agree. No evidence whatsoever that Toronto RE prices are going down. Sorry but I call it like it is

#81 Wait There on 11.23.16 at 9:32 pm

Never bet against America.

Never bet against the Donald.

#82 Smoking Man on 11.23.16 at 9:32 pm

Old grandmothers, freaks of humanity, the old dancing to johen jet at Stir. Pathetic spectral.

I should not talk. I’m the freek in the boot taking to himself putting sentences together for the sequel that make sense.

My problem my words are slurring a bit. See how complicated this published fiction writers life is.

25 books sold or a million sold. I did it like I said I would. Handy capped and all. Did no one get a lesson out of this. Just do it. Follow your dreams. Nothing else matters.

https://youtu.be/Tj75Arhq5ho

#83 TCContrarian on 11.23.16 at 9:33 pm

Well, I wasn’t going to do this…but now that it’s fair game to bash gold, let’s re-calculate on a YTD basis: gold (and specifically, gold-related equities as measured by GDX or GDXJ -US ETFs), are way ahead.
And so is my commodity heavy p/f with gains that shall remain unmentionable on this blog (I’ll be banned, for sure!)

Two weeks does not a trend make…and the markets (ALL markets) have a way of suckering the majority into buying high, higher, highest – just as in RE.

Haven’t we learned anything here?

TCC

#84 WEIRDO on 11.23.16 at 9:36 pm

DELETED

#85 Figmund Sreaud on 11.23.16 at 9:36 pm

This week, Wednesday, the Dow closed at 19,083. That’s an increase of 6.7% in 11 trading days since the election.
_______________________

Happy Trumpsgiving 2016
https://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/31054555592/in/dateposted-public/

F.S. – Comox, BC.

#86 mark on 11.23.16 at 9:40 pm

It’s easy to sit there for past 5 years saying how good preferred shares are and calling for RE decline.
It’s also easy to say stay invested but those that don’t think the U.S. is not headed for 20% haircut with the market at a PE multiple 0f 20 is ludicrous.

You know what a P/E is, right? With higher US GDP, corporate profits will increase and ratios change fast. In any case, it’s 50% lower than at the end of the last bull cycle. Lots of runway left. — Garth

#87 Golden dip on 11.23.16 at 9:47 pm

#14 Polls R Phake on 11.23.16 at 6:39 pm
Billions are going into gold. The Indians are piling into it right now because they are trying to get rid of their soon to be worthless paper. Plus the USA controls the paper market. Of which there is less then 1% to back it physically.

News flash. This isn’t India. — Garth

__________________________________________

Oh I’m sorry. I thought we lived in a world of global commodity prices. I guess I was mistaken.

—-

Russia is also loading up on gold on dip.

#88 Smoking Man on 11.23.16 at 9:48 pm

No go-go girl dancers would come near me tonight.
The bulged eye balls and toung dropping saliva was was a bit much for them.

I was acting for a sceen in the next book. That’s not me. I swear.

It’s the way I write….

Got to feel it. Plus the granny’s put me in a depressed mood. I’m in that group.

When I put my shades on. Take a quick walk outside knowing that I got away with murder crossing the border with the stash…

Victory is all that comes to mind.
Gamblers is all I’m saying…

Ah feels good. Time for pizza.

#89 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.23.16 at 9:52 pm

Inflation everywhere!

http://www.barrons.com/articles/BL-INCOMB-10290

Sorry deflation nutbars!

#90 Bond Junkie on 11.23.16 at 9:54 pm

Smokey, I’m not even sure Garth would allow it but I would be happy to give it a try. I am actually insisting that my wife gives it some time because a) she’s an avid reader who will truly give some objective feedback and b) she doesn’t read this blog so she has no idea who you are or the references you have planted with respect to its various characters and plot lines over the years.

Overall, I have to say I really enjoyed the book for a coupe of reasons. Your writing style is very reminiscent of hunter S but without the horrible lack of grammar/punctuation. As good as he is , reading his work is a pain. I also enjoyed the first person narrative. It reads very much like an auto biography overlayed onto a debaucherous weekend in Vegas all of us can relate to but with a massive sci-fi twist. The characters are great. I wouldn’t say too one-dimension as they are clearly based around your friends/relatives. Some history on you and Heather was also enjoyable whether fact or fiction I totally bought it! ‘There can only be one’. The plot line is totally ridiculous but amazing all at the same time and without giving too much away the theme is consistent throughout. A harsh and very comical criticism of our industrial educational complex. Memorize and regurgitate. ‘I quickly observed that these Americans no matter what garbage was spewed from someone’s mouth, if it was delivered with a British accent, the speaker would be gifted with instantaneous credibility.’ Just GOLD. I could go on and on. I think my favourite part was the salt addiction. You guys really have to read the book, smokey deserves your latte money.

BJ

#91 Lead Paint on 11.23.16 at 9:56 pm

#38 Smoking Man
“Trump is walking back alot of the things he said that gave him billions in free air time and helped get him elected.
I never thought I’d say this, but brilliant point.

#92 Braj on 11.23.16 at 10:07 pm

#20 Buying a house now in TO B4 its too L8! on 11.23.16

My wife also wants me to buy now. The house is listed at $1.125 million, but it’s near one of the best public high schools in Canada. I do not mind paying an extra thousand or more in property tax education premiums. Toronto is only going to get better as a city, and I want to invest in my wife and future family’s future in this great city.

Meet Freedom First…

#35 Freedom First on 11.23.16 at 7:46 pm
Yes. Whether buying a house, or any asset, the time to take advantage of opportunities to buy is when prices have dropped approx. 30 to 70%. And to be able to do this at all times. The time to sell or rebalance, is when the #’s tell you too.

Please know this, I am no good at picking the exact top or exact bottom. And I am always invested.

Trust me. It is just as hard to pull the trigger to sell/rebalance as it is to pull the trigger to buy/rebalance. Fear or Greed is as deadly as debt.

However, I can understand just how much harder it would be if I had anyone in my life who believed that they had the right to think for me.

I am a simple man. I like to always be debt free, have solid cash flow, a wide variety of income streams from different liquid sources, and an always growing net worth. I need it, as I am a man.

Of course, and this is also vital, I want to travel when I want, ski when I want, golf when I want, etc. etc. etc. And the biggest one of all, not have to care what anyone thinks. Except for me.

After all, and this is very important, how could I possibly be helping others if I am not properly looking after myself in every way.

And I don’t mean by helping someone to buy a house or whatever. Help always, enable never.

007
Freedom First
Master of Freedomonics

#93 Braj on 11.23.16 at 10:09 pm

#52 A Yank in BC on 11.23.16 at 8:28 pm
Please allow me to suggest that using the 11-day increase in the Dow is cherry-picking at its absolute finest. The S&P is only up half that amount, and a 60/40 balanced portfolio which includes the S&P 500, some developed Int’l, and a total bond fund is actually down .03% over that same 11 days.

Good thing you don’t build portfolios. Why would you have 40% in a bond fund? — Garth

Probably a couch potato strategy, nothing wrong with that if you’re not actively picking IMO.

For most people this is the better choice until they can give someone like Garth their money to manage.

#94 Braj on 11.23.16 at 10:14 pm

#77 Stock picker on 11.23.16 at 9:26 pm
Sorry to offend G, but as a stock picker every day has been a massive party. I’m up several hundred grand since The Big Dog was elected, thank you. Specific targeted picks in bank and energy have increased double digits . You can’t get that buying 6% index fund. Thank you, I didnt get crushed, quite opposite.

How would that offend? Your strategy is not better for serving clients, you take on risk at the probability of higher reward. It could have easily gone the other way.

Replicated results for decades beating the markets and you could brag, but at that point I don’t think you’d want to..

#95 Capt. Serious on 11.23.16 at 10:19 pm

Please tell me you didn’t arrive at 17% by plugging into a mean variance optimization program. None of us know what the optimum mix will be over the next N years. If you are strictly cap weighting it would be less than 17%, so some predictions are baked in there.
I’m

#96 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.23.16 at 10:24 pm

#78 Maj on 11.23.16 at 9:26 pm

Why is housing so expensive? Supply and demand.

More dual income families earning more income to spend on a McMansion after paying an absurd amount on daycare. Talk about rat race. And we wonder what’s up with Millennials? Overcompensating with a “participation” gold star for lack of parenting. If you aren’t around to raise your kid of course what little time you do have with them you want it to be cuddly and nice.

Hey don’t get me wrong. I don’t believe, in today’s world, a stay at home parent need be the Mom. Just saying’. The way it is does kinda explain a lot, I think.

Take it back a few decades. What was different? Less divorce, fewer dual income families, more affordable housing costs compared to wages, more neighbourhood babysitters relieving parents for a date night out instead of taking their snotty rug rat to fine dining establishment. Am I wrong?

But go ahead, blame it on low interest rates and CMHC.

I’ve got news for you; low interest rates are a consequence of the bond market which is a consequence of the economy which is a consequence of supply and demand.

Economics is a social science and society is… well…

Look at who they elected as POUS! Geez. it’s all about celebrity isn’t it? Kardashian fat assed B.S.. Everybody wants to be a Rock Star.

#97 Capt. Serious on 11.23.16 at 10:26 pm

The Schiller PE (using cyclically adjusted real earnings) is horrendous, somewhere near 28 currently. I don’t believe earnings will grow enough fast enough to keep this up much longer, but would be happy to be proven wrong.

#98 Smoking Man on 11.23.16 at 10:28 pm

Nice place to be.
Brain damage. The hourer of being intellectual.
A nightmare I can’t handle.

https://youtu.be/t29WsfzCfvs

#99 45north on 11.23.16 at 10:48 pm

CMHC report highlights need for more affordable housing

The federal government says it will move full steam ahead on a 10-year national housing strategy that it promises will deal with everything from affordable dwellings to rental housing and skyrocketing housing prices.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/cmhc-report-highlights-need-for-more-affordable-housing

“it will deal with everything” everything!

Duclos said whatever form the national housing strategy ultimately takes, it will need interdepartmental government support to succeed.

take no prisoners!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lo2qQmj0_h4

#100 Smoking Man on 11.23.16 at 10:48 pm

Too sky pilots

https://youtu.be/lroU7apzma8

#101 Smoking Man on 11.23.16 at 10:53 pm

T2 s world

https://youtu.be/wJVpihgwE18

#102 Smoking Man on 11.23.16 at 10:58 pm

https://youtu.be/HHjKzr6tLz0

#103 Souvereigninternational on 11.23.16 at 10:59 pm

Greenback rising, gold dropping. Bullion bunnies always have a for-sure reason their losses are temporary. — Garth

You don’t sell you don’t loose. WHY? Because everything is temporary. HOLD STEADY , BUY LOW.

#104 Ret on 11.23.16 at 11:01 pm

Can we move off the Trump thang?

Hey, let’s talk about something Canadian, like the Pierre Elliot Trudeau Foundation.

I bet that the word ‘foundation’ got your attention!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/trudeau-attended-cash-for-access-fundraiser-with-chinese-billionaires/article32971362/

#105 Max on 11.23.16 at 11:34 pm

To #11 & #20
##########
#11 – U R CONFUSED AND NEUROTIC. CHANGE YOUR HAIR COLOUR AND CALM DOWN.
#20 – U MUST LIVE IN UNIONVILLE BECAUSE EVERYONE HER BELIEVES THAT THEIR PUBLIC SCHOOL, DOWN THE STREET, IS ONE OF THE BEST IN CANADA AND THAT THEIR OVERPRICED PROPERTY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EVERY SEASON. YES PEOPLE, WELCOME TO OZ, WHERE THE BLIND LEAD THE BLIND!!!

#106 jay on 11.23.16 at 11:39 pm

More good news for Toronto The Good ,Tory has found a way to pay for his park. https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/11/23/tory-set-to-announce-tolls-on-the-dvp-and-gardiner.html

#107 CONFUCIUS SAY... on 11.23.16 at 11:45 pm

To #70 Bond Junkie
##############
CONFUCIUS SAY…FOOL WHO TALK TOO MUCH HAVE NOTHING TO SAY.

#108 Barb on 11.23.16 at 11:49 pm

Despite Garth not being a Kevin O’Leary fan, I found this quote of interest:

“Just a couple of weeks removed from trial-ballooning the idea of running for the Conservative leadership, he warns Canada is becoming the laughing stock of the business world. Nobody will invest here while governments talk of multibillion-dollar deficit budgets and continue to slap business-killing regulations on growth potential, O’Leary said. “The world has figured out in the past nine months that (Alberta NDP Premier) Rachel Notley has no idea what she is doing,” he said. “Her government is killing that province. She is totally clueless and she is killing this country. I think Canadians should get on their knees and beg her to take a holiday.” Ontario’s pension plan “is a bad idea,” he said, as are the cap-and-trade discussions. “It’s scary,” O’Leary said of all the job losses and business closures. “It is becoming a Third World banana republic.” And there’s no voice of reason in Ottawa to counter the provincial trends.

“We now have a new a federal problem,” he said. “Finance Minister (Bill) Morneau is a good guy by most metrics, but a $30-billion deficit budget is a big problem. Everybody down here is freaked out.” As are Canadian investors, who CIBC reported this week have placed $75 billion in cash on the sidelines instead of investing in Canadian business. The reason? “The deficit was supposed to be $10 billion but now they are talking $30 billion. As a Canadian taxpayer, I don’t want my government to spend $30 billion by themselves. They don’t have the talent to do that. They need to draw in the private sector.”

With that kind of debt on the books,” O’Leary warns, “outsiders will look to other countries to risk their money. You want to know why the Canadian dollar is collapsing? It’s because nobody will invest,” he said.”
——————

The easiest thing in the world is to spend money.
And T2’s spending, spending, spending.

Investors are heeding Garth and shunning maple.

#109 Pete on 11.24.16 at 12:02 am

“but it’s near one of the best public high schools in Canada”
I’m ROTFL. There are only 2 real schools in the country. Stanstead College in Stanstead, Quebec and BCS in Lennoxville. All the rest take government monies and adhere to their destructive PC curriculum. Home-schooling is the only viable option.

#110 DON on 11.24.16 at 12:03 am

#95 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.23.16 at 10:24 pm
#78 Maj on 11.23.16 at 9:26 pm

Supply and demand can change quickly when emotions and large sums of money are involved.

Trump seems to be walking back the extreme talk, just a brilliant political ploy to win Office. Maybe?

What happens next? No one really knows.

One thing for sure…Some Canadians are swimming in debt, incomes have not risen, prices are rising (food, rent, interest payments, credit cards, hydro, and even gas/diesel etc.)

I believe this to be the calm before the storm hits, and if it doesn’t hit Canada will be hailed as the smartest nation on earth for ever after.

The 80’s are back, fortunately big air has not yet surfaced, skinny rocker pants came back though.

#111 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.24.16 at 12:04 am

Take it back a few decades. What was different? Less divorce…

Blatantly wrong. Take it back a few years and divorce was much higher.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-17/divorce-in-u-s-plunges-to-35-year-low

#112 Calgary Guy on 11.24.16 at 12:10 am

For all you GOLD BUGS out there, here are some hard facts.

I’ve never understood why folks “invest” in gold. Take the past 50 years. In Nov 1966 gold was at about $259. Now gold’s at $1185, so a 4.5 bagger. In Nov 1966 the S&P500 was at about $80. Now the S&P500 is at $2200, so a 27.5 bagger. No contest, the S&P500 wins hands down.

USA Inflation has a cumulative rate of 646% over the past 50 years. If you kept your gold the past 50 years your investment would have actually LOST VALUE because of inflation!

Some people say gold is a good hedge against uncertain events. I say there are better hedges than gold.

Gold prices last 100 years:
http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

USA Inflation rate calculator:
http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

#113 nonplused on 11.24.16 at 12:13 am

Garth loves to hate on gold, but there was a time even in his books he had a warm spot for 5-10% allocation. Don’t know if he still does maybe he thinks that’s to high given the current price.

Anyway, when gold went to $1900 it became an out sized portion of my portfolio and I didn’t sell any, and I suffered great paper losses as a result. I learned then that a tree doesn’t grow to the sky. So now I use “portfolio balancing” at a fixed % portfolio amount (still higher than Garth’s 10%) so once or twice a year if gold is up I sell, and if it’s down I buy. So far it’s been mostly selling but it looks like that is done for a while. The proceeds are going into a balanced portfolio. Not quite as perfect as Garth suggests, but close to balanced is better than not balanced.

#114 RIL on 11.24.16 at 12:14 am

The tradition of riding a horse into the lobby of the Royal York Hotel when Calgary is in Le Coupe Grey started in 1948.

Time for a change. This year it should be:

40 King Street West
Suite 5300
Toronto, Ontario

The proprietor wears cowboy boots and is a bit of a bronc himself.

#115 Pete on 11.24.16 at 12:19 am

“if it was delivered with a British accent, the speaker would be gifted with instantaneous credibility”
——————-
Yes, picture this: British accent: “Cocoa, a traditional healing medicine, is derived from the coconut, a root vegetable harvested by Inuit tribesmen in the northernmost reaches of the Canadian Arctic.”
Many university kids would fall for that. Try it.

#116 Calgary Guy on 11.24.16 at 12:41 am

oops, I made a mistake on the GOLD BUGS post. I forgot that the gold price chart was already adjusted for inflation. But even so, If you had invested in GOLD in the mid 1930’s then it would have only doubled in value taking inflation into consideration, versus the S&P500 going up ten times. Investing in gold in 1980 would have been even worse as you would have lost value versus the S&P500 going up about six times.

Look at the following two charts showing gold and the S&P500 adjusted for inflation. GOLD is much more erratic over the longer period of time whereas the S&P500 has a much more definite trendline of going up. As Garth said, GOLD is very emotional, whereas you should never bet against the US, at least in the long run.

http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

http://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

#117 chelsea on 11.24.16 at 12:51 am

Get off the Trump wagon .. he is President of the USA, so pucker up …. RE in B.C. is NOT changing, and preferably no one is buying in at such ridiculous asking prices. The glory days of high prices are over people, so be realistic… okay now… we will wait until Spring 2017 … to see the free fall … if any..

#118 RIL on 11.24.16 at 1:02 am

Interesting. A young team that learns it can win becomes dangerous. Seen it many times. To wit: Oilers. 6ers, the Leafs will live the same experience. Patience. A balm for your RE, hydro and political pain. Channel Dave Keon.

#119 Ronaldo on 11.24.16 at 1:10 am

#26 TraderX on 11.23.16 at 7:32 pm

”Garth, it really irks me how you pick and choose statistics to support your claims. You can’t pick the top in gold and then comment how its down 37%.”
—————————————————————
If you want to cherry pick you could say that on June 18/08 XIU was trading at 22.70 when the TSX hit 15073. At this time Gold was trading at $906 cdn

Today XIU is trading at 22.31 and the TSX hit 15080 and gold is trading at $1604 cdn. Which was the best investment?

#120 Fortune500 on 11.24.16 at 1:19 am

#20 is exactly why I think Canadians should be forced to take a gap year. Get out of the GTA. Go see what the world has to offer, and realize that young professionals today cannot rely on a one-city strategy for their lives/careers (or even one country).

We are not special. Toronto is a decent city, but it isn’t going to ‘hockey stick’ like this forever (it’s interest rates … period).

And keep in mind that those good schools are still mostly preparing kids for a economy that no longer exists. We are so slow to adapt when it comes to education and large bureaucracies. Just look at the underemployment and precariousness we have even among our best and brightest graduates today.

Globalization is not going away, even with Trump. And now we are about to see the economic changes that AI and the third wave of industrial revolution is about to reek on the bubble Canadians live in.

Just how much of your economic future do you want to put at jeopardy so that Jimmy or Leena will be the most ‘educated’ graduate in a precarious economy with AI and automation reducing most of the viable jobs.

I would focus more on making them adaptable, problem solvers who are willing to take a global approach when it comes to their futures. None of that truly needs ‘good schools’ anymore. They just need a high speed internet connection and parents who are willing to look forward instead of backwards.

So unless you are SPAMMING, I would strongly suggest you rethink your one asset, single-location bet.

#121 Calgary Guy on 11.24.16 at 1:49 am

Following up on my GOLD BUG post, I started to dig into the inflation adjusted US home prices for the past 100 years or so. Here is the chart:

http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted/

Yikes! If we go back 100 years to 1916 then the value of a US home has risen about 85% or so. Pretty awful return. The S&P500 has risen 1300% or so, and gold approximately 190% over the past 100 years. These are all adjusted for inflation.

So the S&P500 was the clear winner.

But the thing that concerned me is that you can go long stretches even with the S&P500 where you net to a zero gain in your investment if you take inflation into consideration. 1929 to 1986, 1957 to 1986, 1968 to 1994, 2000 to close to present time.

I know I’m cherry-picking the data here, but what if your savings timeline follows one of these trends? Basically you are just keeping up with inflation. I know that it’s better than keeping your money under a pillow which gets ravaged by inflation, but geez, your actual gains are limited due to inflation. That nest egg you think you’ll have at retirement may get spent more quickly than you think due to inflation.

Garth, any thoughts or comments on this?

#122 westcdn on 11.24.16 at 1:53 am

I dropped by my favorite cigarette supplier and there was a woman expressing her fury against a coworker. Apparently there were a few issues and she was ready to walk. She wanted support(the complainer).

So I said to my gal – remember when Trump called in the media to his personal ballroom and then began to berate them. After a few minutes, I would have stood up and walked out. I would have said to his face – don’t treat me like a slave, I have an opinion and will stand by it.

Life in a medieval court…

#123 paulo on 11.24.16 at 1:57 am

the pinstripe and knuckle ball: taking a shot at this one, could it be that the CHMC is about to drop a mini bomb on the banks concerning mortgage insurance and shared liability?

#124 paulo on 11.24.16 at 2:04 am

On the hopes and dreams of many here that apparently
think Real Estate in the GTA will be given a second wind by Americans bailing give your head a shake and keep dreaming, any american with the ability to do so has the world as there oyster, toronto with its massively over priced real estate is likely a long way down there list of
possibilities

#125 Stock Picker on 11.24.16 at 2:07 am

Brak # 93 I buy but rarely sell. Profits are not entirely trading, but tax planning my personal requirements and forecasting the potential for M&A to be taken out at a profit. Companies send clear signals when sorting themselves out, you just have to know what to look for. I was once a trader but now only invest. Great issues I’ve picked up recently were CGI at $15 and now $64. I bought Tims at $14 and sold at $92. I started buying TD at $ 14 and after compounding divs and splits its worth $2500. One very unusual pic I bought not long ago and has doubled is RBA, the company that no one ever heard of except now that the stock has already doubled. Oh, and normally 100 %of everything I buy pays a dividend. Investing is easy if you have the time patience and ability to read and understand a companies public exchange.

I could list a hundred more doubles to multiples of that but it’s not about that, it’s about being right more often than you’re wrong and always doing a lot of homework. To answer your question my 20 + year average overall is 17.5 % p/a including exceptional years like this where doubling my money was as easy as shooting fish in a barrel. It also helps if don’t think the stock market is a place to gamble. Example , the pick up in drilling was widely telegraphed, but how many of y’all bought little beaten up PD at 3 bucks? I did in fact ‘back up the trailer and have since doubled my money.

Proviso, I ‘run’ an average of 55 stocks at any time and at times get blown out of the sky with one or two due to a black swan event, a government screw ball or geo freak out event, it’s not a perfect science, as said, you only need to be right more often than wrong.

#126 Freeman on 11.24.16 at 2:51 am

Yeah, market timing really is just about impossible for 99% of the people to perform, that’s why Garth’s advice is best for investors to follow.

You know what is even WORSE than trying to time stocks? Trying to time OPTIONS, that’s what. If you buy an option (Puts, Calls) you are basically gambling. If your gamble is wrong then 100% of what you invested in that PUT or CALL is worthless and your money just evaporates. Options have an expiry date, so you cannot just wait till stocks move in your favor, as your option becomes worthless on that expiry date.

Not only are a ton of people trying to time the markets (and losing potential gains), but more and more snake oil salesmen on the Internet are talking about how you can make big gains on Options or currency trades (Forex), and the like. Avoid these things at all costs.

#127 Andrew t on 11.24.16 at 3:01 am

#77 Stock picker on 11.23.16 at 9:26 pm
Sorry to offend G, but as a stock picker every day has been a massive party. I’m up several hundred grand since The Big Dog was elected, thank you. Specific targeted picks in bank and energy have increased double digits . You can’t get that buying 6% index fund. Thank you, I didnt get crushed, quite opposite.

If you can’t trust a random anonymous poster in a comment section, who can you trust? Am I right, people?

#128 Future Expatriate on 11.24.16 at 3:38 am

Excellent advice as usual, especially since a Trump overturn becomes more and more likely with each passing idiotic Trump Tower farce minute.

Tune in next week for the next installment of the reality TV show. And someone might just get voted off the island in the season finale Dec. 19th.

But don’t bet on it. Don’t bet on anything. Balance, moderation, diversification, etc.

#129 Stendz on 11.24.16 at 6:51 am

How does one know when to rebalance? Based on the recent drop in bonds and rise in equities I’m sure my portfolio is due.

#130 Zen Headspace on 11.24.16 at 7:12 am

WU WEI is a philosophy aimed at achieving a state of perfect equilibrium, or alignment with the natural world, the Tao, in order to obtain an irresistible form of soft and invisible power.

The goal of WU WEI is to practice balance throughout your entrepreneurial endeavours to achieve mastery over them so that they become second nature, and seamlessly fit into your broader experience and enjoyment of life.

Leave your balanced portfolio alone. Do not interfere. over time, all will be well. Practice “non-doing”.

#131 RiseandShine on 11.24.16 at 7:13 am

You know what a P/E is, right? With higher US GDP, corporate profits will increase and ratios change fast. In any case, it’s 50% lower than at the end of the last bull cycle. Lots of runway left. — Garth

Once just has to look through the archives to see that this blog has been better as a contrarian indicator than prognosticator and I suspect that this post will be no different. The only possible way this market stays levitated is if there is real growth…not this 1.8% crap but GDP growth in the 4 – 5 % range…and with Trump’s protectionist policies, already announcing pulling out of TPP, it is highly questionable. And in terms of bull markets….time is one of the more commonly used indoicators and this bull market is already the 3rd longest bull in history so not so sure about lots of runway? One should be expecting a healthy 10 – 20 % pullback….just like in real estate. They are both highly inflated but for some reason anyone who questions anything other than real estate gets labelled a bullion licker.

A balanced and globally diversified investor never exits a major asset class, just adjusts the weightings. Currently having a 10-12% exposure to US large caps is a sound position. Try to control yourself. — Garth

#132 Victor V on 11.24.16 at 7:25 am

Nearly half of Canadian homeowners unprepared for emergency: survey

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/almost-half-of-canadian-homeowners-unprepared-for-emergency-says-survey/article33012963/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&service=mobile

About half (46 per cent) of those polled say they would have difficulty making their monthly mortgage payments in less than six months if their household’s primary income earner lost his or her job.

Sixteen per cent say they would have financial difficulty if interest rates cause their mortgage payments to increase.

Mortgage data has been a hot-button topic in recent months as the federal government takes steps toward reducing the risks in the Canadian housing market.

#133 neo on 11.24.16 at 7:29 am

Garth,

So we are going to pretend that we can live in a world where U.S. stocks are at all time highs and corporations won’t feel any headwinds from a rapidly rising USD on profits and a rapidly rising interest rates on their debt? Don’t levers still exist where these things are detrimental or are we truly in this goldilocks market where nothing matters and he can suck and blow by lowering taxes and spending like a drunken sailor with no consequences.

#134 cto on 11.24.16 at 7:44 am

Wow T.O, the best place on earth, Ha, Ha, Ha!

I live in an outer laying area of toronto and drive to work to a further out area of the GTA to the east, and I’v got to tell ya. I see the poor people driving like hurds of sheeple in the godless city every day. stuck in huge traffic jams that last for miles and miles.
my side moving at 110km/h.
same thing on the way home.
I and many others my age with work experience have been given very good paying job offers to work in Toronto.
ALL OF US HAVE FLAT OUT REFUSED FOR OBVIOUS REASONS!
I personally have lived in Metro Toronto, Muskoka for many years, and now inner GTA. I can clearly tell you with a shadow of doubt that Muskoka was by far the best life an Ontario taxpayer can ever have, even for 1/2 the pay!!!

#135 AfterTheHouseSold on 11.24.16 at 7:50 am

More stench emanating from the Ontario Liberals. Kathleen Wynne needs to resign now!

“Because Ottawa, not Ontario, signed NAFTA, federal taxpayers must compensate the investors … they will likely have to pay the New Yorkers a lot more than the $28 million … possibly closer to the $568.5 million …”

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/why-canadian-taxpayers-have-to-pay-wall-street-bankers-28-million-for-an-ontario-wind-farm-that-never-got-built?__lsa=8c60-bce8

#136 cto on 11.24.16 at 7:54 am

Garth

Sorry for the Toronto bashing, but I think you owe it to your dogs to investigate and write a blog on the long term results of such over priced housing in Toronto and Vancouver.
My personal experience is that a City will not attract talent, or experience in mid level jobs, if a person has to sell their $500,000 house and move into a City to buy a $1,000,000 house.
I have seen so much evidence of this happening in the last few years it isn’t funny.
So many, (including myself) have reject jobs that pay 25-30% more mainly because of the cost of housing there.
This should be discussed. Its another white elephant to me.

#137 jess on 11.24.16 at 8:01 am

“GEMS vote-counting systems are and have been operated under five trade names: Global Election Systems, Diebold Election Systems, Premier Election Systems, Dominion Voting Systems, and Election Systems & Software, in addition to a number of private regional subcontractors. At the time of this writing, this system is used statewide in Alaska, Connecticut, Georgia, Mississippi, New Hampshire, Utah and Vermont, and for counties in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming. It is also used in Canada.

Fractionalized vote:

Instead of “1” the vote is allowed to be 1/2, or 1+7/8, or any other value that is not a whole number.

What fractionalized votes can do:

They allow “weighting” of races. Weighting a race removes the principle of “one person-one vote” to allow some votes to be counted as less than one or more than one. Regardless of what the real votes are, candidates can receive a set percentage of votes. Results can be controlled. For example, Candidate A can be assigned 44% of the votes, Candidate B 51%, and Candidate C the rest.

GEMS fractionalizes votes in three places:

The “Summary” vote tally, which provides overall election totals for each race on Election Night
The “Statement of Votes Cast”, which provides detailed results by precinct and voting method (ie. Polling, absentee, early, provisional)
The “undervote” count

read more @
http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-1/

#138 jess on 11.24.16 at 8:26 am

Fraction Magic – Detailed Vote Rigging Demonstration

watch how it is done
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fob-AGgZn44

#139 Herb on 11.24.16 at 8:35 am

#62 The Most Interesting Man in the World,

Balanced portfolios use me to level themselves.

thanks to your explanation, I now know what happened –

If the Trump effect holds for a few more days, my balanced etc. portfolio will have used me to level itself back to its peak of February 27, 2015!

#140 Bark on 11.24.16 at 8:46 am

The US economy is a big, fat, ugly bubble.

When they raise interest rates, you’re going to see some very bad things happen.

-The Donald

#141 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.24.16 at 8:53 am

So many, (including myself) have reject jobs that pay 25-30% more mainly because of the cost of housing there.

Don’t worry. Somebody else took it

#142 traderJim on 11.24.16 at 9:12 am

#16 notso-smartalox

No one has said that sexist racist actors like the guy in Hamilton can’t speak out to a captive audience including the VP elect and his family on a nice, private evening out.

Some people question the appropriateness and the bullying of the act.

Looking forward to your reaction when Hillary goes out to dinner at her local spot and people start to boo and chant ‘lock her up’.

Or perhaps Obama stops into a place for ice cream and the guy behind the counter refuses to serve him and says ‘go back to Kenya!’

I mean…free speech right?

#143 traderJim on 11.24.16 at 9:20 am

#123 future expat

I thought I’d have to stop grinning and gloating soon after Nov 9th.

But it’s been non-stop entertainment every day watching the reality deniers cling to their illusions.

Goddamn I never thought an election could be so much fun!

Thanks for giving me another date to loo forward to.

see you here Dec 20th! (and again on Jan 21st! woo hoo!)

#144 Ole Doberman on 11.24.16 at 9:25 am

Garth I know young people who are millionaires from trading stocks based mostly on charts.

So it can be done if you’re willing to put in the work and you like it. But most don’t have the nerve for it – that’s where the diversified portfolio comes in I guess.

That’s gambling, not investing. — Garth

#145 Ole Doberman on 11.24.16 at 9:28 am

“Stocks, Bonds, Pension Funds “Will Be Wiped Out…” – Rickards”

This gentlemen thinks some tough times are ahead – whose right whose wrong who knows, only time will tell

http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/stocks-bonds-pension-funds-will-wiped-rickards/

But you’d think gold should be going up if inflation is

Rickards is an extremist. Fortunately, he’s always wrong and no credible people pay him notice. — Garth

#146 The Truth on 11.24.16 at 9:32 am

Toronto is terrible and I live here! Actually in the heart of the city, not the outskirts. I also live on one of the most desirable streets in the city. The only people writing that the market is NOT undergoing the beginning stages of a correction is either a realtor or someone who is leveraged up to their eyeballs. I am neither. I am at the ground level and SFDH are sitting in the city. Sorry, you people who just bought a few months ago you are going to loose and loose big time. Don’t say you weren’t warned!

#147 Braj on 11.24.16 at 9:38 am

#120 Stock Picker on 11.24.16 at 2:07 am
Brak # 93 I buy but rarely sell. Profits are not entirely trading, but tax planning my personal requirements and forecasting the potential for M&A to be taken out at a profit. Companies send clear signals when sorting themselves out, you just have to know what to look for. I was once a trader but now only invest. Great issues I’ve picked up recently were CGI at $15 and now $64. I bought Tims at $14 and sold at $92. I started buying TD at $ 14 and after compounding divs and splits its worth $2500. One very unusual pic I bought not long ago and has doubled is RBA, the company that no one ever heard of except now that the stock has already doubled. Oh, and normally 100 %of everything I buy pays a dividend. Investing is easy if you have the time patience and ability to read and understand a companies public exchange.

I could list a hundred more doubles to multiples of that but it’s not about that, it’s about being right more often than you’re wrong and always doing a lot of homework. To answer your question my 20 + year average overall is 17.5 % p/a including exceptional years like this where doubling my money was as easy as shooting fish in a barrel. It also helps if don’t think the stock market is a place to gamble. Example , the pick up in drilling was widely telegraphed, but how many of y’all bought little beaten up PD at 3 bucks? I did in fact ‘back up the trailer and have since doubled my money.

Proviso, I ‘run’ an average of 55 stocks at any time and at times get blown out of the sky with one or two due to a black swan event, a government screw ball or geo freak out event, it’s not a perfect science, as said, you only need to be right more often than wrong.

Was your occupation a trader previously ? That would give you a lot more of a stable background to build the required skills for that kind of strategy.

Congratulations though, it sounds as if you are doing well. I hope it keeps working out.

Any advice for a complete novice?

#148 traderJim on 11.24.16 at 9:42 am

I’m old enough to remember when Trump suggested elections might possibly be rigged, and that he might not accept the results.

That was greeted with hysterics by the press and Hillary campaign, and according to them, made clear that Trump was a madman unfit to be President.

My how things change.

But then again, it was Al Gore that refused to accept the election results too, wasn’t it?

So I guess we shouldn’t be surprised by the lunatic left any more.

#149 Grey Dog on 11.24.16 at 9:48 am

MAX 100….what is wrong with Unionville? The grey dog inspects Toogood pond or its streams daily.

Did you know they have plans to expand 16th avenue to include HOV lanes?

#150 Context on 11.24.16 at 10:03 am

#129 cto:- Bracebridge is a nice place to live as it has the most haunted place in all of Canada. I often have dined at the Inn At The Falls just to watch the action of the ghosts frightening the young women there. Great place to stay for a night or two, having someone knock on your door at 2:00 AM and nobody is there.

#151 Ace Goodheart on 11.24.16 at 10:20 am

RE: #8 Godly:

“There is currently an economic crisis happening in Venezuela and India. Both citizens are scrambling for gold bullion.”

-actually that is not entirely correct. Yes there is an economic crisis happening in Venezuela. But the citizens are not scrambling for gold. They are scrambling for US dollars. Just like the rest of South and Central America. The US dollar is gold down there. always has been.

Gold isn’t really all that useful. It is rare so that apparently makes it valuable. But it is too soft. Can’t make anything out of it. Only really good thing about it is it conducts electricity really well (maybe not such a good thing if your wife is wearing all that gold when she touches that wet electrical outlet). A better metal is copper. That stuff is valuable.

Canadian chartered bank stocks are about to give everyone a twice in a lifetime buying opportunity (first in the lifetime was the 2008 opportunity, there is one more coming). When these things crash (and they will) I would suggest buying them. You will not get another opportunity like this in your lifetime.

#152 Doug in London on 11.24.16 at 10:51 am

Can you time the stock markets? Not consistently, that’s for sure. However, you can take advantage of buying opportunities when they arise. Officially, Black Friday is tomorrow, Nov. 25, for retail stores. For stocks, it occurred about 3 weeks ago, just before the US election.

#153 Context on 11.24.16 at 11:08 am

#125 Zen Headspace:- This is a variation of the Yin Yang where Chinese Medicine comes into play which is thousands of years old. Let us concentrate on the mystery of the 29 pulses as was disclosed to me by a student from Hong Kong over dinner one night. He never ate his mash potatoes and told me as it was against his nature. His family took him to a master as a young boy for food testing, as certain foods eaten are against one’s nature which is killing the balance to good health in life. Only certain pulses are used by a master for food testing, as all 29 will analyze your entire health condition.

#154 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.24.16 at 11:26 am

I never thought I’d say this, but brilliant point.

It’s been repeated ad nauseum ever since he announced his run. Try and keep up

#155 goldgrit on 11.24.16 at 12:01 pm

This week, Wednesday, the Dow closed at 19,083. That’s an increase of 6.7% in 11 trading days since the election. In other words, a whole year’s worth of advance in less than a fortnight. We all know the reasons.
So, the stock-pickers blew it. Again. Because market timing doesn’t work. Especially now.”

Garth, there you go again! One of the flaws in all of your analysis is that you assume that if someone bought (ie. timed the market) at the beginning of the 11 days they would have made 6.7%…which is timing isn’t it? The market was actually significantly down before that….I see alot of financial advisors selectively choosing their starting date so as to convince people of their point…n’est-ce pas?

US stocks have been bouncing near record levels for some time, including before the vote. Fail. — Garth

#156 InvestorsFriend on 11.24.16 at 12:03 pm

The Rising Stock Market Confounds Many

A few people posting that the stock market is too high. Growth is too low to support it, they say. Earnings too low. Case Shiller cyclical P/E is too high etc.

Most of the sources that claim the P/E is way high ignore entirely that historically interest rates were far higher and inflation was far higher.

Today’s stock market P/E levels are FAR more attractive versus 10 year bonds than was the P/E of 8 back circa 1980. (As well as equities did post 1982, a zero coupon 30-year treasury at about 18% did far better at 18%)

Be cautious with warnings that stock markets are far too high.

And as Garth says you NEVER get out of a asset class like equities entirely.

Leaning a bit against the rise and rebalancing is wise. Taking your equity exposure to anything close to zero has been a very poor strategy historically, with a few exceptions.

#157 IHCTD9 on 11.24.16 at 12:04 pm

The Libs just can’t bring themselves to push more taxes down our throats, but they still need more money! So they’re looking at improving government efficiency and cutting staff and programs…

…LOL! Yeah Right! New Tolls and Fees on the horizon:

“The Canadian deal is changing. It used to be that the government would tax everything that moves, and in return would build and provide stuff. The new deal is that the government will keep taxing everybody just as enthusiastically, but you’ll also have to pay extra to use the stuff we build.”

“Spread of user fees:

For now, it’s bridges and roads and electrical systems. But count on this: soon enough, it’ll be everything from hospitals and elective medical care to airports and garbage removal”

Yep, you’d better not get sick in Canada in the years to come (unless you’re loaded). Just imagine actually having to pay to use the 401/410/427 etc LOL. Fees on roads and bridges? Electrical “systems”?

Have a read – it’s forward looking but we damn well understand we’re both broke and screwed Federally, Provincially, Municipally, and in the majority of cases, individually.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/liberals-infrastructure-bank-1.3862634

Wild Bill had this to say regarding taking private money to build public infrastructure:

“When you think about affordable housing, where, you know, low housing contributions from people can help to make something economic. So there’ll be multiple things that we’ll look at.”

Riiight, that kind of gobbledygook is a sure sign that no one is going to like the plan. The plan the Libs have trouble describing here is of course – privately owned for profit “public” infrastructure. I don’t think even Harper would have gone there!

Hey, I’m beginning to understand what Trudeau meant by sunny ways: Getting some sun as you walk to work, and hoping sun hits your solar panels so you can get enough hydro to make a coffee.

#158 Mark on 11.24.16 at 12:11 pm

“As are Canadian investors, who CIBC reported this week have placed $75 billion in cash on the sidelines instead of investing in Canadian business. The reason? “The deficit was supposed to be $10 billion but now they are talking $30 billion. As a Canadian taxpayer, I don’t want my government to spend $30 billion by themselves. They don’t have the talent to do that. They need to draw in the private sector.””

Sounds like a bunch of partisan nonsense. Harper had no problem spending $26B more each year than he took in. Adjusted for inflation, that’s likely an average $30B/year, in 2016 dollars, deficit the Harper government ran. So why is it a problem under Trudeau to the so-called “investors” quoted?

There are other reasons to not invest in Canada at the moment, namely, overcapacity in the commodities sector, overcapacity in the housing sector, and political uncertainty relating to carbon pricing and taxes. But Trudeau running a Harper-sized deficit should definitely not even register on the radar. With where GoC bond yields are, the market clearly has no concerns whatsoever with the sustainability of the Canadian government.

#159 DM in C on 11.24.16 at 12:14 pm

Renewed mortgage today – locked in for 5 years at 2.5% (down from original quote of 2.69 cause TNLATB likes us).

We’re happy with that rate. Kept the same payment and putting the difference on the principal. We’ll see what happens in 5 years.

#160 Mark on 11.24.16 at 12:21 pm

“the pinstripe and knuckle ball: taking a shot at this one, could it be that the CHMC is about to drop a mini bomb on the banks concerning mortgage insurance and shared liability?”

If you’ve followed my comments over the past few years, the paradigm between the banks and the CMHC is basically similar to that of the Cold War paradigm of “mutually assured destruction”.

The CMHC is relying upon the banks to keep lending, in order to have housing valuations not utterly collapse (and cause a dramatic acceleration of claims against CMHC subprime mortgage insurance). The banks are relying upon the CMHC to make good on their subprime mortgage insurance obligations for solvency.

Hence, the CMHC really can’t do anything arbitrarily retroactive (such would actually be a form of sovereign default), unless they want the banks to stop lending to housing market participants, and the whole mess collapses in a wave of defaults, including the banks. It is in the interests of neither the CMHC, nor the banks, for such to happen, for the Canadian economy to collapse into a sort of hyperdeflation.

So the chances of the CMHC ‘dropping a bomb’ on the banks is minimal. The most recent moves at the CMHC, to tighten new subprime mortgage insurance, are now taking effect. The Canadian RE market (including Toronto/Vancouver) which has spent the past 3 years in stagnation, is now falling in an almost undeniable way in price and in activity. Banks are ratcheting up risk premia on account of the falling prices and riskier lending prospects the sector thus represents with falling equity.

#161 TurnerNation on 11.24.16 at 12:21 pm

T2 and other elites figured putting a dispensery on every corner is cheaper than a policeman on every corner.
Keeping us fat and dumb with bread and circuses.

#162 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 11.24.16 at 12:25 pm

Sorry realtors your lies are useless.
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/business/mortgage-rates-trump-1.3865391

Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#163 Mark on 11.24.16 at 12:29 pm

“Today XIU is trading at 22.31 and the TSX hit 15080 and gold is trading at $1604 cdn. Which was the best investment?”

Not to detract from your point (which remains valid, in the strictest sense), but if you’re comparing XIU against physical gold bullion, you need to include re-invested dividends as part of XIU’s return. With gold obviously not having any re-invested dividends.

The calculator on the XIU website tells me that a $10,000 investment in XIU at the peak in 2008, with re-invested dividends, would, today, be worth almost $12,200.

If you go through the same exercise, with the S&P500 at the time, I believe it beat the gold quite soundly. The US market, particularly the financials, historically respond very well to falling/low interest rates that we’ve been seeing in the post-2008 era.

#164 quebecEconomist on 11.24.16 at 12:51 pm

I feel this is a response to a comment I left several days ago about liquidating my stocks.

“Because market timing doesn’t work.” I have never tried timing the market. By liquidating I am reducing risk in volatile times. I am not trying to sell high and buy low, but that is always nice. I am sitting out on cash not waiting to see if the market crash, but to have a better sense of where the world is going with Trump. I believe that within 3 months I will be able to assess whether we are going to shits or not. I might lose out on 4-6% if Trump is some financial messiah and that will be shitty for me. But I might also protect my capital against a bigger hit, if Trump is an idiot.

Things are all about statistical risk and never certainties. You must play the odds. Here the odds of the world churning out as usual under trump is at 20% (totally subjective number that changes according to what happens in the world, updated daily on this little paper next to my computer) the possibility of social unrest in US OR highly unstable Foreign relations is at 80%. we can say I have a 20% chance of missing out on 6% gains or a 80% chance of avoiding a 10% market reaction. From this we can see that until Trump and the GOP show things will not be so bad, I should stay out.

But to each his own.

#165 Balmuto on 11.24.16 at 1:04 pm

#116 Calgary Guy on 11.24.16 at 1:49 am
“But the thing that concerned me is that you can go long stretches even with the S&P500 where you net to a zero gain in your investment if you take inflation into consideration. 1929 to 1986, 1957 to 1986, 1968 to 1994, 2000 to close to present time.”

Are you including dividends?

#166 Ole Doberman on 11.24.16 at 1:09 pm

Garth I know young people who are millionaires from trading stocks based mostly on charts.

So it can be done if you’re willing to put in the work and you like it. But most don’t have the nerve for it – that’s where the diversified portfolio comes in I guess.

That’s gambling, not investing. — Garth
———————————————————-
The world record for swing trading and earning the most amount of money in the shortest period of time is $10k to $18,000,000 in 2 years (Dan Zanger). So it can be done methodically.

That is way more enticing than a portfolio earning 6% a year. Truth is you need to make that large sum of money first then you can do the diversification thing.

Otherwise you remain an economic slave to mortgages, high food and energy prices. While if you were a millionaire you just don’t care about that stuff – peace of mind in other words.

#167 WalMark of sadkatoon on 11.24.16 at 1:10 pm

There is currently an economic crisis happening in Venezuela and India. Both citizens are scrambling for gold bullion.

Yeah sure. Scrambling. That’s why the price has been declining for years and just cratered off a cliff. Cuz tons of people are scrambling. Apparently they’re scrambling but willing to accept lower and lower prices.

#168 Shawn on 11.24.16 at 1:13 pm

How do you determine that 17% TSX weight is an appropriate TSX level of equity exposure? What is the rationale for this amount?

#169 Skip Breakfast on 11.24.16 at 1:18 pm

Never say “never”.

Just say “for now”.

For all things there is a season.

#170 #139 on 11.24.16 at 1:30 pm

Garth I know young people who are millionaires from trading stocks based mostly on charts.

So it can be done if you’re willing to put in the work and you like it. But most don’t have the nerve for it – that’s where the diversified portfolio comes in I guess.

That’s gambling, not investing. — Garth

…………

correct. Technical analysis is a fantastic tool-in general fundamentalists are terrible at it. They call it ‘gambling’. Mock what you don’t know, or are poort at…….I suppose

#171 Jim Rickards on 11.24.16 at 1:46 pm

Rickards is an extremist??? As general counsel for the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM),[4][5] he was the principal negotiator in the 1998 bailout of LTCM[6] by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

He was negotiating the 2008 bailout while you were smoking dubes in Granville.

Past glories don’t matter. He’s lost it. — Garth

#172 jay on 11.24.16 at 2:09 pm

#146 Ace Goodheart Yeah, the drug cartel’s are happy.One of the most profitable industries in the world.

#173 ROTFL on 11.24.16 at 2:13 pm

— So many, (including myself) have reject jobs that pay 25-30% more mainly because of the cost of housing [in Toronto].

— Don’t worry. Somebody else took it

…Aaaaand that’s your classic equilibrium right there. But if I may predict… Soon, somebody will suggest that in five years, this will have equalized a bit because companies will be more open to telecommuting. Because people have been predicting that for a few decades now.

#174 ROTFL on 11.24.16 at 2:36 pm

#152 IHCTD9

My opinions vary on privatization and user fees. But one place I’m unequivocal is airports. Privatize an airport, and its goal is going to be maximizing profit. The CEO’s compensation metric will probably not be “minimum customer delay time,” it’ll be “average customer spend,” which means you, the traveller. You spend more when your time in the security line is long and variable, so you have to arrive earlier, and so spend more time in Departures. If there’s a maze from Arrivals to the taxi rank, same deal.

The airlines were big on airport privatization back in the Harper Government, too. Presumably because they figured they’d have negotiating power, and costs/profits would be pushed onto flyers through other means than ticket surcharges. So not much has changed there. Bon voyage!

#175 Braj on 11.24.16 at 3:14 pm

#146 Ace Goodheart on 11.24.16 at 10:20 am

Canadian chartered bank stocks are about to give everyone a twice in a lifetime buying opportunity (first in the lifetime was the 2008 opportunity, there is one more coming). When these things crash (and they will) I would suggest buying them. You will not get another opportunity like this in your lifetime.

What’s the basis of this prediction? Interest rates rising? Housing Markets crashing? I assume people will sell on fear dropping the price significantly but the fundamentals will remain.

#176 Context on 11.24.16 at 3:17 pm

Get your kids ready as Santa is coming to Toronto early on the Holiday Train. November 28th arriving at 8:15 PM, 750 Runnymede Road in front of Lambton Yard. A performance will take place from 8:30 to 9:00 PM. and be sure and check the schedule for any changes.

#177 IHCTD9 on 11.24.16 at 3:29 pm

#153 Mark on 11.24.16 at 12:11 pm

Sounds like a bunch of partisan nonsense. Harper had no problem spending $26B more each year than he took in. Adjusted for inflation, that’s likely an average $30B/year, in 2016 dollars, deficit the Harper government ran. So why is it a problem under Trudeau to the so-called “investors” quoted?
__________________________________________

Harper was running a surplus of 634 million for the first 7 months of 2015. He also knocked down the deficit for 5 consecutive years in a row like clockwork, until Canadians could take no more good financial stewardship and booted him in favour of selfies and burning money.

Now, I’m afraid those are facts.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ottawa-posts-941m-deficit-for-october-1.3376881

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/canada-deficit/index.html

Why don’t you point out where Trudeau ran any kind of surplus after being sworn in?

How about where he eliminated, or even just reduced the deficit?

Perhaps you would rather average out Harper’s debt over 9 years? Or would you rather not talk about deficits or surpluses at all LOL?

Hey, if I were a Trudeau fan, I’d do the same thing you’re doing right now :). T2 guys sure don’t like talking about deficits – just debt (inflation adjusted), per year (averaged).

Why is it a problem under Trudeau to the so-called “investors” quoted? Well, because unlike you, said investors are looking at actual facts, not the alien invasion numbers you espouse. We just see different (real) numbers than you.

I await your partisan nonsense :).

#178 TCContrarian on 11.24.16 at 3:31 pm

“Second, never listen to the simpletons and alarmist bullion-lickers who espouse holding precious metals. Especially in the physical form. This has been a consistently losing strategy for years, a pattern is likely to continue. These metals are rocks paying neither interest nor dividends, are highly volatile and emotional, and won’t protect a single pimple on your butt if there were to be an economic crisis. You live in dollars. Collect them instead. And hoard kibble.” – GT
**********************************************

Holding gold is mainly “insurance” against Central Bank fiat currency printing (which seems endless). How can you not acknowledge this FACT?
Also, patently wrong to classify others who don’t share your (biased) investment strategies as ‘simpletons’ or ‘alarmist’.
Besides, aren’t you alarmed that the world is awash with trillions of $$’s of debt? Seems that this only concerns you with RE debt, and nothing else! I don’t get you!

Anyway, as far as I’m concerned, the only thing that matters in the end is portfolio performance – nicely into high double-digits YTD, thank you very much… lick, lick, lick! :-)

TCC

#179 brain washed on 11.24.16 at 3:33 pm

Trump is the worst, just the worst. I’m appalled by everything Trump. Keep singing that tune Garth, it sure is what everyone needs to hear before they get tucked in at night. This prevents them from jumping off a cliff because he won the presidency.

People need to do their research before they understand any of his rhetoric, but before then keep singing it to their ears.

Best advice to Trump haters don’t take him literally and out of context, but take him seriously.

Trump all the way!

#180 tkid on 11.24.16 at 3:38 pm

Toronto introducing toll roads for two major highways into the city. Y’know what will happen … everyone will come off the highway just before the tolls, making the side streets damn near unpassable.

#181 bdwy sktrn on 11.24.16 at 3:41 pm

you are going to loose and loose big time.
““““““““““
then fall off?

#182 InvestorsFriend on 11.24.16 at 3:52 pm

Gasoline is cheap

Gasoline at 78.9 cents in Edmonton today. All taxes included.

You can get a 40 liter fill for $31.56. A high percentage of the full time jobs in Alberta pay that or more per hour. (Albeit that is before deductions)

The price before taxes is about 52 cents per liter.

This is incredibly cheap. A bargain. Say thank you to the big bad oil and gasoline companies.

When gasoline prices rise, the masses shout: Unfair! Collusion!

When gasoline prices fall? crickets.

#183 InvestorsFriend on 11.24.16 at 3:56 pm

Central Bank Money Printing

#173 TCContrarian on 11.24.16 at 3:31 pm

Holding gold is mainly “insurance” against Central Bank fiat currency printing (which seems endless). How can you not acknowledge this FACT?

*****************************************
And how did the money printing affect you given that inflation is very low?

And how did losing money on gold alleviate the problem?

#184 Penny Henny on 11.24.16 at 4:04 pm

#141 The Truth on 11.24.16 at 9:32 am
Toronto is terrible and I live here! Actually in the heart of the city, not the outskirts. I also live on one of the most desirable streets in the city. The only people writing that the market is NOT undergoing the beginning stages of a correction is either a realtor or someone who is leveraged up to their eyeballs. I am neither. I am at the ground level and SFDH are sitting in the city. Sorry, you people who just bought a few months ago you are going to loose and loose big time. Don’t say you weren’t warned!
//////////////////////////////

First off

loose-not firmly or tightly fixed in place; detached or able to be detached.
“a loose tooth”

lose-be deprived of or cease to have or retain (something).

Secondly. No signs of a correction happening in TO.
Not yet at least.

#185 Calgary Guy on 11.24.16 at 4:11 pm

#160 Balmuto on 11.24.16 at 1:04 pm
“Are you including dividends?”

Balmuto – great question. Thanks. The chart did NOT include reinvesting dividends.

Here is a website where you can calculate the impact of reinvesting dividends or not and adjust for inflation:

https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

If I go back 100 years, to Nov 1916, and NOT reinvest dividends then the inflation adjusted return is about 909%. If the dividends are reinvested then the return balloons to an astounding 58,263%! Wow! Simple compounding math at work.

Going back 10 years to Nov 2006, NOT reinvesting dividends gives you an inflation adjusted return of 30% and reinvesting dividends a return of 59%.

I always knew reinvesting dividends helped goose the performance of your portfolio but I never realized by how much.

Gold and housing don’t give you dividends, so just one more reason why the stock markets vastly outperform over the long haul.

#186 Mark on 11.24.16 at 4:16 pm

“Harper was running a surplus of 634 million for the first 7 months of 2015”

Not true. The (Harper) Government of Canada’s debt rose from $628.65B on December 31, 2014, to $642.07B on July 30, 2015. Numbers are at the below website to verify. Hence, Harper ran a deficit for those 7 months of a cumulative $13.42B.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/markets/government-securities-auctions/goc-t-bills-and-bonds-outstanding/

Wrong. — Garth

#187 Context on 11.24.16 at 4:22 pm

#172 IHCTD9:- The only thing Harper was running amounted to a carnival barker selling the voters a con job, as he was cooking the books. What did Harper ever accomplish with his promises – nothing – and left the T2 government holding the bag. Harper was a ring leader managing a circus act filled with clowns and sordid actors.

#188 Capt. Serious on 11.24.16 at 5:04 pm

#142 Braj

To answer your question my 20 + year average overall is 17.5 % p/a

If that’s the geometric average that’s quite impressive. And I don’t know what you’re doing hanging around here.
If it’s the simple arithmetic average, it’s meaningless.

#189 calgaryPhantom on 11.24.16 at 5:38 pm

Can you time the stock markets? Not consistently, that’s for sure. However, you can take advantage of buying opportunities when they arise. Officially, Black Friday is tomorrow, Nov. 25, for retail stores. For stocks, it occurred about 3 weeks ago, just before the US election.
——————————————————————–

Black Friday is also on nov 25 , for European stocks and emerging markets. If you want to earn good money put your entire 60% equity portion in European and emerging, for next year.

For 2017

30% Europe
20 % Emerging
10% Japan
20% preferred
20% mix bonds

—————————–

#190 GFD on 11.24.16 at 5:57 pm

#11 Paula on 11.23.16 at 6:27 pm
Confused Elizabeth Smith and her cheap perfume.

#191 Bram on 11.24.16 at 6:04 pm

#155 Mark on 11.24.16 at 12:21 pm
…the paradigm between the banks and the CMHC is basically similar to that of the Cold War paradigm of “mutually assured destruction”.

That’s not what the experts say.
Here’s an economics professor looking at the financial reserves of CMHC.

They seem to be just fine:

http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2014/01/cmhc-reserves-revisited.html

#192 SeeB on 11.24.16 at 6:10 pm

#177 InvestorsFriend

When gasoline prices rise, the masses shout: Unfair! Collusion!

When gasoline prices fall? crickets.

—————————————————————–

They have to go up before they can go back down, genius.

#193 Atrate on 11.24.16 at 6:12 pm

@#27 Devil’s Advocate

You said:
“Today it seems women are preoccupied with being… men, manly or equivalent. They drive bad ass trucks, demand to be welcomed in traditional guy domains, have tattoos up the ying yang. Don’t get me wrong I like a capable woman but lately… Who the **** wants anything to do with that?!?”

I am a daily reader of this blog (though an infrequent contributor), a client of Garth’s and an independent, employed, confident lady. Feminist? Dunno what that really means, but I do understand where your comments are coming from.

Speaking for myself, I have no desire to break into domains that are typically the demesne of men, just as I am sure you harbour no desire to break into places typically inhabited by women. Everyone needs a safe place to let their hair hang down and just be a guy (or a woman), and I see nothing wrong with that.

I am perfectly content with my Honda Civic hatchback, though I am perfectly capable of driving a (dump) truck and have done during my varied career. I have no tattoos, nor any desire to. I didn’t even get my ears pierced until I was 40 :)

I still love to be squired around by a gentleman who doesn’t have to worry that I’ll have an apoplexy if he opens a door for me or holds my chair. In fact, I quite like the consideration.

I don’t know why so many women are so strident and nasty, why they act so tough and inconsiderate. I don’t think of myself as any kind of “ist” – feminist included. I’ve just lived my life, made my choices and taken responsibility for my actions throughout my life and so far, have to say, that has worked out pretty well.

I hope you realize that not all us of the female gender are trying to put one over on you, undercut you, unman you or otherwise try to make you feel foolish. I certainly don’t feel that way. I quite like men :)

And as for that whole house horny thing…I think for the most part, you’re right. It tends to be the women who drive that whole engine. Women tend to be the nesters in a relationship, and a house IS a nest; it just doesn’t have to be a $2.4 million nest, and that is where things get ugly between couples.

We’re not all Feminazis and yes, I admit, they are out there. But any sane, competent, capable woman dislikes them the same as most ment do – certainly this one does, at least.

I suspect a lot of the ladies who peruse this blog know exactly what I’m saying and many might agree. I just don’t post often because I can’t keep up! But your post struck a chord, and I felt compelled to respond on behalf the sane, less self-absorbed people of my gender :)

#194 RentYVR on 11.24.16 at 6:29 pm

Wow, there’s a lot of gold bugs on this site. Garth, you could make a fortunate selling adds to one of those gold-doomer websites! The only people I know who have made money in gold are those who sell it; think about that.

#195 Butt Hurt Lefty's & T.O. itself on 11.24.16 at 6:31 pm

Will all the butt hurt whiny Lefty’s that keep posting here give it a rest and stop bashing Trump.

Think of it this way, your candidate sucked even more since she couldn’t even beat Trump. She couldn’t even buy the election outspending Trump by 10X.

She was lousy candidate and a dumb one too, 2 million vote plurality and she still managed to lose.

How do you do that? She found a way.

Stop quoting the Lefty MSM (which is everyone except Fox and Breitbart).

They lied to you.

They lied to you about how she was going to win, about the “firewall blue states”, what an angel she was and the list goes on and on. You want FAKE news, well they are the poster children for that – quintessential liars.

Also and considering Canada’s precarious position w.r.t. to the US in trade if Trump goes protectionist; thus, it is a very smart idea to keep bashing their new administration thus endearing them further.

Whining Lefty’s, bigots with rose colored glasses.
____________________________

Turning On itself, T.O.

Wow, we went from posts about Toronto the beautiful and great a few months ago to infanticide posts here in the past few weeks.

All this because your RE market may be poised for a crash.

Shallow.

bsant

#196 Wrong. — Garth on 11.24.16 at 7:01 pm

I love it when you go Laconic.

I have now switched to reading your blog at night; otherwise, the Subject would have been yet another flush espresso + grappa thru nose during my AM news read.

Thanks for the humor G.

bsant

#197 KAC on 11.24.16 at 8:09 pm

#188 Atrate

Thank you. What a nice reassuring response, you remind me of my equally well balanced and self-assured wife of 3 decades who is a physically attractive, emotionally strong, high-income earner who has sacrificed none of her femininity yet competes easily in a predominately male work environment.

Secure individuals don’t need to be ball-busters to succeed. Unfortunately that message is just as lost on some women as it is on some men.

What a wonderful world it would be if we could simply celebrate our differences.

#198 TCContrarian on 11.24.16 at 8:53 pm

#178 InvestorsFriend on 11.24.16 at 3:56 pm
Central Bank Money Printing

*****************************************
And how did the money printing affect you given that inflation is very low?

And how did losing money on gold alleviate the problem?
—————————————————————

First off, “inflation” is not low. The “official” CPI is very much massaged to be low but in the real world it’s much, much higher.
Secondly, you can lose money in any asset class, including gold/precious metals/commodities/real-estate/ etc…
But given what’s going on in the world, to have an allocation in ‘real’ assets which benefit from inflation is sound strategy.
Precious metal stocks are quite volatile and played mostly by professional investors/speculators. But there’s money to be made since even if you lose 50% in a bear market you can then make +300% on the bull run.
Certainly not for everyone and NOT with big p/f allocation.

Case in point: I was buying Teck (TCK.b) from around $12 all the way down to $5 a few months ago (avg. ~$8). Today, at ~$35 I’m doing…OK.
It takes discipline and nerves of steel to catch falling-knives…and be prepared to be in the red for extended periods of time. But when things turn (and since the markets are cyclical, they always do), there are some nice gains to be had.

TCC

#199 Stock picker on 11.24.16 at 10:32 pm

#142 Braj, I began educating myself about investing by reading entire library shelves at business school. Advice? Bulls make money, bears make money…pigs get slaughtered. Never regret not having put all your eggs in one basket. The market exists for companies to raise money, not for the benefit of the punter. When a company announces that they are making improvements to the balance sheet you should put them on your watch list. Acknloweldge trends. The Obama years were a black cloud, that cloud has lifted , look for opportunities in finance, defence and energy.

The mid caps that were turned into micro caps due to Obamas Ozone legacy drive are ripe for the picking. Companies that were weakened but still survive are obvious low hanging fruit. I mentioned PD, there are many others too numerous to list. Avoid the massive macro news blasts, like seniors homes and water plays. Put 90 % of your money in dividend plays. Use the dividends to finance your speculative plays. Balance up not sideways, don’t sell your winners, use cash flow to buy more of what hasn’t moved yet. Avoid paying tax and acccouting fees with unessecary trading. Best of luck.

#200 Ace Goodheart on 11.24.16 at 11:05 pm

RE: #170 Braj :

Canadian chartered bank stocks are about to give everyone a twice in a lifetime buying opportunity (first in the lifetime was the 2008 opportunity, there is one more coming). When these things crash (and they will) I would suggest buying them. You will not get another opportunity like this in your lifetime.

What’s the basis of this prediction? Interest rates rising? Housing Markets crashing? I assume people will sell on fear dropping the price significantly but the fundamentals will remain.

Well back in 2008 the US banking industry collapsed.

The Canadian banking industry did not. However our Chartered bank stocks lost 50% of their value. They subsequently recovered to new highs that they continue to enjoy.

There is likely going to be a bit of a credit collapse in Canada in the next few years. This will result, as the author of this blog likes to point out (over and over again) from the over extended nature of Canadian households, financially speaking.

I had thought that people really weren’t borrowing all that much. I figured this was another chicken little story with the sky not really falling. So I investigated a little. What I have found is kind of frightening. I have found:

-people buying million dollar houses with down payments of less than 100K. These folks feel fine about what they have done, because they can afford the monthly payments as long as they keep working. That is literally as far as they have looked into the situation. They owe like 900K on a five year rate reset loan, secured to a house, and they figure that is OK, because they can keep up with the payments. This is scary.

-helocs: These things are like a cancer. People get them to build swimming pools, put in hot tubs, renovate kitchens. These things are demand loans. Payable whenever they are called. Interest only until then. Again, people are apparently fine with this. They secure a heloc to their house, for like 50K, renovate their kitchen, and then forget about it. Interest on the heloc is like $150.00 per month. That is all they literally see. Pay the $150.00 per month and forget about it. Never pay it back. Doesn’t matter.

-Credit cards: These are around 25% interest. The department store ones are more. People are using these things as a line of credit. I have found people with 30 or 40K owing on various cards. They are making the monthlies. $200 per month on a 10K debt. Again, they don’t consider paying them back. Just consider keeping up with the $200.00.

All of this is premised on two things:

1. The value of the person’s house

2. The person’s yearly income.

Take away either, and this house of cards will just collapse.

Behind all of this is Canada’s own shadow securitization system. Guess who owns all of this debt? Likely you do (if you have a pension or if you qualify for CPP). It is all packaged. Bundled up into tranches and sold to institutional investors.

And it makes money. The investors who have exposure to the credit cards are making double digit interest. The helocs are worth 5%. The mortgages are considered “safe” and pay less.

And it is all enabled of course by our Chartereds, who run the whole show with a group of Bay Street law firms and investment banks who set it up for them.

Underneath it you have a group of people quietly cashing in their stock options, as bank stocks rise to new heights, making millions per year just by purchasing over priced stock and reselling it.

All it takes is one little push…..the whole thing will collapse.

Granted, the Chartered will survive and grow even bigger than they are now. They likely won’t even take much of a hit from it. But that is not what determines a stock’s value. Chartereds are trading at many, many times earnings and book value right now. Any perception that they might not be as profitable as people thought, would cause the “goodwill” portion of the stock price to evaporate. That is all you need.

Remember 2008. Canadian Chartereds weren’t even exposed to that, and they lost half their value.

This time, they are exposed.

#201 Future Expatriate on 11.25.16 at 4:50 am

#138 US has this inconvenient thing called a Constitution and an even more inconvenient thing in it called the emoluments clause. Google is my friend; yours, not so much. It states simply that Trump and his entire family (who he’s putting in his Adminstration already) must divest of ALL his business interests 100% before he can assume the Presidency.

ALL. Of course he has a bunch of high-priced yes men “lawyers” who lie to him to get paid and tell him otherwise. However, never believe a prostitute.

And if you believe he’s going to divest himself of all his business interests, I have a TON of overpriced real estate to sell you.

Until then, cya round.

#202 robfjord on 11.25.16 at 3:18 pm

liar and wealth transfer queen janet yellen promised 4 rate hikes in 2016, we may get one in december.

Fed chairs never promise rate hikes. The liar is you. — Garth

#203 Context on 11.25.16 at 4:43 pm

#196 Future Expatriot: Tell us where you are going as is there a paradise somewhere?

#204 Future Expatriate on 11.26.16 at 4:05 am

#198 New Zealand if this doesn’t turn around.

News flash: It’s turning around.

http://worldnewsdailyreport.com/snowden-russia-successfully-rigged-us-elections-in-favor-of-trump/

#205 Atrate on 11.26.16 at 5:05 pm

@ 192 KAC:

And thank YOU, sir, for the lovely words in return. Your wife sounds like someone I would like to get to know.

All the best!