The sacrifice

dog-hole

Once a year the pampered editors of a hoity magazine blanketing the wealthiest postal codes in Toronto invite me to witness a ritual sacrifice. Mine. It’s an annual ‘real estate roundtable’ held at a private club where employees wear white gloves and expressions to match. In exchange for sandwiches without crusts and soup served by the ounce, participants are expected to debate the future of property in God’s greatest creation, the GTA.

Well, not exactly a debate, to be honest. More of a goat-on-the–altar kinda thing. I’m the goat.

The editors amuse themselves by inviting pro-real estate bank economists, some of the billionaire developers who cruise the region in Bentleys, rock star realtors, a high-priced Bay Street lending exec or two, and me. The token denier. Trust me, it’s ugly. Garth guts everywhere.

So, eviscerated once too often, I stopped going. Now the editors have decided to dial it back by converting this into a text-based event (rather than hospital-based). So I just received the following message: “I hope all is well. We’re working on a story for our December issue, looking at the local real estate market and where it’s headed.  Looking for comments from financial and real estate experts, and hoping you can contribute by answering a few questions. Thank you.”

Here are the questions. Feel free to provide your own answers. Mine are below.

1. How will Trump victory impact Toronto housing market?

2. Interest rates now rising on mortgages – is this a blip or cause for genuine concern?

3. New land transfer tax on properties over 2 mil, coupled with recent changes; will it impact foreign buyers in Toronto?

4. Would you advise your kids or others to buy now or wait? And how long should someone wait if that’s the case?

First, Trump. The dude changes overall conditions about as much as he changes his mind. So, a lot. His election has sent all major North American stock markets skidding higher, spanked the bond market, rekindled expectations of inflation and likely ushered in years of protectionist, anti-free-trade, deglobalizing, America-first policies. This means we’ll probably get the bad stuff (high interest rates, less trade) without the good stuff (more jobs, higher incomes). If Toronto were a suburb of, say, Cleveland, things would be fine. And we’d lose Drake. Yay.

What Trump will do is hasten a correction in Canadian property values, and reward investors in financial assets, who have exposure to things like preferred shares and Canadian or US equities. That much should be evident from the first few post-election weeks. Plus, never forget that this big change is coming on the heels of the Wild Bill mortgage changes and MST, whose impact is not yet even being felt.

Second, rates. The bottom is in. How’s that not obvious? Yields in the bond market have bloated while prices plopped. Mortgage rates have risen at two major banks and others will follow. The Fed is being given 100% odds of an increase in December, with an 80% chance of one or two after that. It’s no blip. Nor is it ‘cause for genuine concern.’

The cost of money has been in the ditch so far and so long that real estate values have completely detached from economic fundamentals. Canadians have turned into a nation of one-asset investors, so many of whom are now speculators (over 50% of all GTA condos go to flippers and amateur landlords). Average families cannot afford average homes. Debt is off the chart. Kids think nothing of using 95% leverage to get a concrete box in the sky. Parents are borrowing billions against inflated houses to give to their spawn to invest in more houses. And the fancy editors think hiking rates to stop this destructive behaviour is a bad thing?

So will a land transfer tax surcharge for $2 million houses in Toronto (on top of the two that already exist) deter foreign buyers? Of course not. But, happily, there is no foreign buyer problem in Toronto. Or anywhere else now, apparently. That should tell you something.

Finally, tell kids to buy or wait? This depends on whether or not you like your children.

163 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 11.22.16 at 5:11 pm

Got a sudden hankering for goat curry for dinner…

M42BC

#2 Gators on 11.22.16 at 5:17 pm

whats up with ‘Drake’anyways? Most over rated Canadian performer in HISTORY!

#3 GFD on 11.22.16 at 5:28 pm

mortgagebrokernews.ca

FINTRAC sounds alarm on ‘deficiencies’ at over 100 B.C. real-estate companies

The federal agency responsible for identifying and shutting down money laundering in Canada has found that over half of B.C. real estate companies surveyed from 2012 to 2016 exhibited massive deficiencies in terms of conforming with existing policies.

112 of the firms were found by the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC) to have “significant” levels of non-compliance, while 5 had “very significant” evidence of non-compliance, according to data secured via an access-to-information request.

As reported by the Vancouver Sun, the numbers are the latest in FINTRAC’s intensified efforts to dissect the degree that money laundering has permeated the national real estate sector. An operational brief released by the agency last week noted that a large part of this vulnerability stems from the sheer lack of reporting.

“Canadian Mortgage and Housing (CMHC) statistics indicate that in a 10-year period, over $9 trillion of mortgage credits were negotiated and up to approximately 5 million sales took place through Multiple Listing Services (MLS),” FINTRAC noted in its brief.

“In contrast, FINTRAC received, during approximately the same 10-year period (2003 to 2013), 127 suspicious transaction reports nationally by real estate brokers, agents or developers,” the agency added. “Minimal filings of suspicious transaction reports regarding real estate transactions indicate a clear need for operational guidance to all relevant reporting entities.”

“FINTRAC, through its compliance examinations, has observed deficiencies in most aspects of the real estate sector’s compliance programs that render it more vulnerable of being used by criminals to launder illicit funds.”

#4 RentYVR on 11.22.16 at 5:30 pm

How can you say the bottom is in when the BoC has said repeatedly that it wants to still cut? If the US raises rates slightly, Canada would still have among the highest rates in the developed world. We’re going down not up!

The BoC has said no such thing. — Garth

#5 ShawnG in TO on 11.22.16 at 5:38 pm

1. american economy would be so great that all property flippers in TO would sell here and ‘invest’ in ‘murica instead. i mean, why invest in imploding market with a falling currency when both factors are going up next door ?

2. neither, this is a cause for celebration

3. see #1 above

4. if my kids think about acquiring real estate now i wont advise them anything. i would whip out my belt and give him a beating.
how would i know the worst has passed ? when the editors hold their meeting in a local macdonald’s

#6 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.22.16 at 5:46 pm

Timeframes are hard to predict, but I know I will see it in my lifetime.

ROFL

I know I’ll also see Toronto real estate go down and a hundred other things “in my lifetime” but not any time soon.

Nice useless CADUSD thesis. Only wrong for 5 years straight!

ROFL

#7 That Guy on 11.22.16 at 5:49 pm

The GTA real estate market requires a black swan event in order to be moderately contained.

A few tweaks and twerks aint ‘nothin.

C’mon man.

#8 the other white meat (pork) on 11.22.16 at 5:49 pm

Wait until Romney and the rest of the hedge fund crew start rewriting the rule book, Hillary will look squeaky clean in comparison. The prols have cast their lot with the Wall Street sociopaths and will probably get worse than they deserve. Maybe Sanders can chill in Michael Jackson’s cryonic chamber for the next four years so he can rise like Lazarus and voters can still hope to “feel the Bern”.

Should the kids buy or wait? Do whatever you want, but leave my tax contributions out of it.

#9 Toronto Market Has Started To Crash on 11.22.16 at 5:56 pm

There is no doubt that the market has slowed in Toronto. The crash has begun. I live in the city and houses are not moving. The peak happened a few months ago.

#10 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.22.16 at 6:03 pm

” to debate the future of property in God’s greatest creation, the GTA…..”
*******************************************

You’re encouraging the feminazi chicas.

#11 RentYVR on 11.22.16 at 6:07 pm

au contraire mon frère:

From the last BoC meeting in October: “Poloz said the central bank’s governing council actually discussed whether to add more monetary stimulus to the economy, but they opted to hold off, citing several uncertainties”….see related FP article below.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-actively-discussed-more-stimulus-but-uncertainty-convinced-policymakers-to-hold-rate-instead

The BoC (and our politicians genuinely (and wrongfully) believe that we can devalue ourselves wealthy. Poloz is an export guy and that’s all he knows. And as I’ve pointed out, our rates are still very high relative to most other developed countries. We’re going to be lower for way longer than people realize.

No cut coming. — Garth

#12 paulo on 11.22.16 at 6:08 pm

Interesting set of questions: My Take

1. we shall have to see what of trumps plans become fact or fiction, either way he will likely have a negative effect on real estate values at least short term

2. Not a blip,a beginning of the normalization of interest
rates that will continue to rise,definite bad news for
fools pickled in house debt- raising mtg costs while
dropping values or precieved equity
3. this a non issue they are not stupid, the smart money
already left the room
4. jumping into a ridiculously over priced piece of
real estate, at this time with the headwinds facing the
economy, a developing real estate value correction
would be like throwing your kid into the tank with
cement shoes – defiantly wait

#13 Ronaldo on 11.22.16 at 6:14 pm

”Here are the questions. Feel free to provide your own answers. Mine are below.”
————————————————————–
My uneducated thoughts on it

1. Zilch – President Trump will be much different than the campaigning trump when it comes to the tough decisions. A lot of it was acting. Even Jim Pattison interviewed on the a.m. news feels he will do very well. From a man who has a large stake in the lumber industry and many other businesses that could be affected by changes to NAFTA. The Toronto market will self destruct on it’s own so no need for help from Donnie.

2. No-variable rates will remain low as Banks compete for market share as they did all along.

3. No. If you can afford a 2 million dollar house, what’s an extra 40 grand.

4. Don’t buy in the bubble areas. If you live in those areas, move and relocate to where you can live very affordably and enjoy life away from the concrete and pavement.

And #5. Stop listening to the MSM and economists.

#14 freemoney on 11.22.16 at 6:14 pm

what does rent to own ratio needs to be to make sense out of buying in GTA? to rent a detached SFH in decent hood costs $3000 in Mississauga, if mortgage+tax costs $3000 then why not buy to live in it instead of renting?

#15 Lulu on 11.22.16 at 6:17 pm

Garth, you got all of us on your back, let the hippies go under water and sink then we can decide we will give them the oxygen tank or the snorkel…

When SHTF, I’ll watch them flee like fire ant. burn..baby….burn.

#16 fancy real estate in TO on 11.22.16 at 6:17 pm

DELETED

#17 RentYVR on 11.22.16 at 6:20 pm

Are you willing to wager on that? I’ll put forward a $100 to a charity of your choice if the next directional move by the BoC is up and not down. Willing to do the same?

#18 Scorpions on 11.22.16 at 6:28 pm

DELETED

#19 jess on 11.22.16 at 6:32 pm

have a look at Chinese city 100billion Forest city
the city of Johor Bahru, bordering Singapore,

Planned Densification + !
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-11-21/-100-billion-chinese-made-city-near-singapore-scares-the-hell-out-of-everybody

#20 For those about to flop... on 11.22.16 at 6:34 pm

Everything is going to be fine under the Orange Octopus.

Octopuses have three hearts,which expains why he keeps changing his mind on everything.

It also has it’s advantages.

He will be able to have one heart in New York,one in Washington D.C and his last one will beat for the rust belt which got him across the line…

M42BC

#21 Toronto Best City in the World on 11.22.16 at 6:38 pm

1. How will Trump victory impact Toronto housing market?

Positive correlation. Increased immigration from the USA to avoid a hardcore sexist as a President from destroying the USA when his term begins early next year.

Toronto is the home to the corporate HQ of many large financial, commercial and retail corporations in the world. Yorkville continues to be the best place in the city to be for luxury and entertainment.

The city of Toronto is growing, developing and becoming one of the best cities in the world to live according to the Economist magazine.

The common yearly household income in Toronto is more than $85,000. Wealth is on the rise in Toronto. Toronto offers more opportunities for family life, job security, social stability and respect for women than any other city in North America.

2. Interest rates now rising on mortgages – is this a blip or cause for genuine concern?

Interest rates are not going to be changed by the Bank of Canada.

The Bank of Canada understands that our economy does not need to raise rates because that can affect the Toronto housing market. The major buyers of residential property in Toronto are just- married couples and single career women. It is unfair to increase interest rates to affect our women in Toronto.

The Bank of Canada should lower interest rates and increase taxes on the rich oil corporations in Alberta.

3. New land transfer tax on properties over 2 mil, coupled with recent changes; will it impact foreign buyers in Toronto?

Nope. Toronto continues to be the global destination for immigrants wanting to live in our great country.

4. Would you advise your kids or others to buy now or wait? And how long should someone wait if that’s the case?

House prices in Toronto are only going to go up in value. Buying a detached house in Toronto for less than $1.8 million is considered cheap.

The true market value of a detached house in Toronto should be at least $4.5 to $5 million dollars!

#22 GFD on 11.22.16 at 6:44 pm

TO needs 60-70% $$$ correction . . . . not kidding, for it to be in par with income . . . fundamentals. Demand/supply is valid remark but used with abuse. When you start receiving re/max flyers and invitation to meetings, that’s the indication of house market conditions.

#23 Ronaldo on 11.22.16 at 6:46 pm

Oh, oh, bad news. Russian scientists have discovered a method of extracting gold out of burning coal.

http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-11-22/Midas-Touch-in-Russia-Scientists-Turning-Coal-Into-Gold.html

#24 Oakville has lost its shine! on 11.22.16 at 6:51 pm

Houses sitting in Oakville too! Went to visit that horribly pretentious city where my family lives. . .we were all talking about how many new listing have popped up all of a sudden, in the area. . . but nothing has sold! Crickets on open house days, no foreigners, no regulars, no speculators, just no one. Hmm, something is happening. . .maybe there are no “greater fools” left in the GTA.

#25 the decline in the GTA has begun on 11.22.16 at 6:54 pm

Have been hearing deals are falling through on houses because of financing in the city we call Toronto. I guess this house of cards is starting to fall over.

#26 Ronaldo on 11.22.16 at 6:54 pm

I wonder if there is any other president in history that has only taken $1 dollar per year in salary. Current salary is $400 grand.

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37977433

#27 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.22.16 at 6:57 pm

@#2 Gator
“Most over rated Canadian performer in HISTORY!”
*******************************************

You’re talking about Justin Beiber right?

#28 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.22.16 at 6:59 pm

@#21 Toronto is the greatest

blah blah blah.
********************************************

garth…..I predicted this…….though not quite this fast.

#29 Victor V on 11.22.16 at 7:01 pm

FINTRAC sounds alarm on ‘deficiencies’ at over 100 B.C. real-estate companies

http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/fintrac-sounds-alarm-on-deficiencies-at-over-100-b-c–realestate-companies-217450.aspx

#30 Olive on 11.22.16 at 7:04 pm

#11 RentYVR

Wake-up…no rate cut coming.

#31 GFD on 11.22.16 at 7:05 pm

#21 Toronto Best City in the World aka Lucy Team Rocket aka EmilyOne aka Elizabeth Smith don’t forget to remind us all about our great federal liberal leadership in anal pleasure revolution.

#32 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.22.16 at 7:06 pm

Since Trump won, gold has tanked. Barrick is down 12%

Crappy rock

http://fortune.com/2016/11/22/one-of-donald-trumps-stocks-isnt-partying-like-dow-19000/

#33 Olive on 11.22.16 at 7:07 pm

RentYVR…

Wake-up and smell the coffee…no rate cut coming.

#34 meslippery on 11.22.16 at 7:08 pm

#1 Trump will not move to the GTA he lives in the White House.(Soon)

#2 Interest rates now rising on mortgages. Followed
by default and 0 cents on the dollar. Knock yourself out.

#3 Tax? If you have to ask you can’t afford it.

#4 Buy now or when? Stay in the basement, move upstairs after my funeral.

#35 Economic Shock to Come has a Name on 11.22.16 at 7:09 pm

56% of the country is $200 or less away from budget oblivion.

We have the highest debt load whether mortgage, consumer or both in the history of the country.

Higher rates will make this worse.

There is no good economic news, none. Sputtering GDP and Jobs Creation. A projected $400 billion GDP shortfall for this year vs. 2015.

YVR RE already collapsing. 416 RE posts here over past few weeks read that FOMO has disappeared.

All Canada needs is an economic shock where a lot of jobs are lost and then we are pooched, for at least a year.

That economic shock to come has a name:

President Trump.

bsant

#36 NEVER going back to TORONTO on 11.22.16 at 7:11 pm

Not sure why would any one want to pay over a zillion dollars on a poorly constructed condo in a city where the dating scene and job market sucks!

To those who can’t figure out this:

If Toronto is plagued with misandrists, obviously they will be in Human Resources to justify their hatred on men and men who are looking for work.

I wasted over a year in Toronto (2014-2015) trying to search for ANY JOB, but I started to notice that the HRs were mainly women who displayed nothing but CONTEMPT and HATE for me!

Thank God that a company in Silicon Valley decided to renew my contract for the new year. The starting salary this year, is only US$85,000 per year, but I get a housing allowance and a dental plan. I also get paid 1.5 times for a 3-week vacation, which I am currently enjoying while sheeple in Toronto are in a rat race chasing dead-end jobs like a donkey on a stick.

TAKE THAT TORONTO FEMINAZIS!

My advice: If you aren’t able to find a dead-end job in Toronto, it isn’t you, nor immigration, nor the economy; it’s the men-hating HR Managers who bring in their own feminazi politics in the work environment.

Someone got to be watching too much CBC to justify that Toronto is a prosperous city. It’s not. It’s a hellhole. You’re better off digging sand at Fort Mac in -40C weather than begging for a min.wage job in Toronto, because the HR feminazis don’t like men.

California is not that bad of a state. There are real divas and celebrities who even let me talk with them, unlike in Toronto.

Guess what?

In San Francisco,I could purchase a detached home for at least 1 million US dollars, or $1,300,000 in Canadian currency.

San Francisco is home to some of the richest people on the planet, but Toronto is home to smug snobbery and liberal politics which are a nightmare for anyone looking for a peaceful life.

Only 1.5 more years until I have to renew my visa, and I’m NEVER going back to Toronto.

#37 bsallergy on 11.22.16 at 7:14 pm

Trump=business as usual more or less. Inflation up. Should have sold my shack a year ago. It doesn’t really matter since I own it outright. Will keep saving and investing in the balanced portfolio. Thanks Garth.

#38 Levin on 11.22.16 at 7:22 pm

Trump is great for the GTA market.

More wealthy immigrants want the stability of Canada, our openness, our greenbelt and relatively fresh air (compared to breathing Trump’s coal-air).

GTA is going to boom even more for years. The rest of Canada perhaps not so much (unless resource prices turnaround and then it will be fun to be in Calgary and Regina again).

Markham and up the 404 are going to double in price whether you like it or not.

Yippee.

#39 conan on 11.22.16 at 7:22 pm

I get to disagree with “Garthatron the Great”, happens.

1) My guess is 250 thousand people ,who can’t stand Trump, and have a million plus to spend on a home, are going to move to Canada. These people will be a much needed boost to a Toronto RE market.

2) It’s a blip baby!!! A blip….

3)Yes, some will buy elsewhere because of it.

4)Wait….. 20% plus.

#40 The Wet Coast on 11.22.16 at 7:23 pm

Coming to this site I feel like Bill Murray in Ground Hog day, only I don’t get the girl.

#41 Sandra on 11.22.16 at 7:24 pm

Hm..you think Trump is going to hasten a crash, and this guy thinks he might prop up housing. You two are usually on the same page, care to give us your take on this?

https://betterdwelling.com/what-president-trump-means-for-canadian-real-estate/

A vacuous article. — Garth

#42 Rock Beats Paper on 11.22.16 at 7:25 pm

#4 RentYVR on 11.22.16 at 5:30 pm
How can you say the bottom is in when the BoC has said repeatedly that it wants to still cut? If the US raises rates slightly, Canada would still have among the highest rates in the developed world. We’re going down not up!

The BoC has said no such thing. — Garth
___________________________________________

Missing the point. The government only sets the rate for one day money. The bond market sets all the other rates, and is not controlled by the government. This last two weeks makes that obvious.

The only complete exception so far is Japan, where the Central Bank buys every single bond. They have sacrificed their currency and free markets.

#43 GFD on 11.22.16 at 7:28 pm

#36 NEVER going back to TORONTO

Hail Hitla, damn lesbonazis . . . . . .read this

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-18/san-fran-home-sales-crash-lowest-level-2008-distressed-property-sales-fall-36-yoy

#44 Re> Toronto, the greatest city in the world on 11.22.16 at 7:29 pm

I actually believe its possible ( as nuts as it sound )for a SFH in Toronto to be 4.5-5 mill by say 2025.
As long as the property boom in China continues with Chinese investors piling up on international homes who knows how hi it will go.
I mean, how much is an average salary in Shenzhen or Shanghai and how much do homes cost there?
Its globalization for you.

#45 Optimist on 11.22.16 at 7:29 pm

Trump is not going to hurt the economy in Toronto. Toronto is a booming city. Look at all of the condos in the skies, under construction, and sold. Toronto is the leader in condo construction than all of the major cities in the USA combined!

I love Toronto.

#46 Freedom First on 11.22.16 at 7:32 pm

Great Pic today!

Was just thinking. If people were more like dogs their lives would be much happier. Shows to go ya, most people make their lives a lot harder than it has to be.

Dogs may just be the greatest teachers in the world. But you gotta pay attention.

#47 For those about to flop... on 11.22.16 at 7:35 pm

I’m pretty sure this guy was living in a cave as well…

M42BC

http://m.imgur.com/gallery/boVKm

#48 DON on 11.22.16 at 7:36 pm

Garth,

I can only wonder what type of counter arguments you’ll get. Do you believe in magic….

#49 GFD on 11.22.16 at 7:41 pm

are you sure Conan all millionaires are moving up to Canada or only dumb kids who think that grass is greener and the wine is sweeter at the other side of the hill? I spent half the year every year for past 6 years in southern US and those who threatens most are kids who think that we have a) free medical system, b) don’t know jack shit about their own income tax in state where state taxes are non existent just because they did do not have enough productive years to realize. All your wannabies and real estate clients pouring in from US will last about 2 weeks!

#50 TRT on 11.22.16 at 7:42 pm

The average length of a Fed tightening cycle is 14 months.

Considering the FED delayed raising rates (Helping Hillary), we can expect, on average this cycle to last 20 months.

We’ve had one rate hike a while ago, one next month, and this site (and the bond market) is expecting 1-2 in 2017.

So USA Fed rate will be at 1% in this tightening cycle. Wow. :S

And Canada won’t follow. They will stay where there at, unless you believe that Canada follows the USA 94% of the time ;)

#51 Yuus bin Haad on 11.22.16 at 7:44 pm

Why waste your breath? Mother Nature’s in charge (and that’s all one needs to know).

#52 BillyBob on 11.22.16 at 7:51 pm

#17 RentYVR on 11.22.16 at 6:20 pm
Are you willing to wager on that? I’ll put forward a $100 to a charity of your choice if the next directional move by the BoC is up and not down. Willing to do the same?

====================================

Pretty sure the whole point of this blog is to NOT treat investing as betting. Sorry you missed that.

But I hope you’re right, if the BoC cuts, I just get richer in CAD as it tanks…if only there was something worth buying in CAD.

#53 jess on 11.22.16 at 7:55 pm

gerrymandering

Law explained here
Wisconsin Republicans’ Gerrymander Takes Politics Too Far Nov 22, 2016 12:40 PM ESTByNoah Feldman
…”Almost three-quarters of state legislatures are in Republican hands, which demonstrates how dangerous partisan gerrymandering is to the continued viability of two-party democracy. Partisan gerrymandering entrenches small advantages and makes them big. Because state legislatures set federal congressional districts, this is a part of the reason the U.S. House is so heavily Republican.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-11-22/wisconsin-republicans-gerrymander-takes-politics-too-far

Problems with redistricting -packing and cracking

Judges Find Wisconsin Redistricting Unfairly Favored Republicans
New York Times‎ – 1 day ago
A federal panel called the 2011 redrawing of Wisconsin Assembly districts an …

#54 For those about to flop... on 11.22.16 at 7:55 pm

#51 Yuus bin Haad on 11.22.16 at 7:44 pm
Why waste your breath? Mother Nature’s in charge (and that’s all one needs to know).

/////////////////////////////

I have noticed people on here calling Kathleen Wynne Mother before.

I’m pretty sure that her surname wasn’t Nature…

M42BC

#55 common sense on 11.22.16 at 7:58 pm

#17 RentYVR

Though it’s a 99.9% lock that the US will raise rates, yet anything can happen based on prior events, place a wager on that first.

#56 GFD on 11.22.16 at 8:02 pm

#51 Yuus bin Haad
I second that, Allah Akbar

#57 MSM-Free Zone on 11.22.16 at 8:13 pm

Difficult to suppress a sh!t eating grin while reading the first three paragraphs. Priceless.

Gotta give you credit for balls of steel at past tête-à-tête’s.

#58 joblo on 11.22.16 at 8:15 pm

Answers to 1. 2 3. 4. ? :

What’s a magazine?

#59 Mark on 11.22.16 at 8:21 pm

“I know I’ll also see Toronto real estate go down and a hundred other things “in my lifetime” but not any time soon.”

Open your eyes silly guy. Stagnating for years now, and now falling.

As for the answers to Garth’s questions:

“1. How will Trump victory impact Toronto housing market?”

No impact. Toronto houses are financed by Canadians lending to Canadian borrowers, and the houses are occupied by Canadians. Toronto RE will continue on a downward path due to overbuilding and rising risk premia.

“2. Interest rates now rising on mortgages – is this a blip or cause for genuine concern?”

Interest rates will continue to rise on retail residential mortgages as banks perceive better uses for investment capital elsewhere and the risk of CMHC non-performance on its guarantees rises. This is likely to take place independently of BoC policy action, or even the market for GoC debt against which mortgages are often benchmarked.

3. New land transfer tax on properties over 2 mil, coupled with recent changes; will it impact foreign buyers in Toronto?

Foreign buyers in Toronto are quite minimal, but tax changes can often be viewed as psychological ‘inflection points’. Foreign buying, already quite minimal, will stay quite minimal until prices fall dramatically.

4. Would you advise your kids or others to buy now or wait? And how long should someone wait if that’s the case?

Canadian RE is priced at approximately 3X that of the Canadian stock market (ie: the XIU index fund which makes up Canada’s top 60 publicly traded companies!). I would wait until the cyclically adjusted earnings yield of the TSX (ie: XIU) is equal to or less than that of the after-tax, after-expenses earnings yield on housing.

In the 1990s, it took approximately a decade from the statistical peak of the Toronto housing market (1990) until the optimal ratio of the stock market to the housing market was reached. Since we are roughly 3 years in, if a similar cadence occurs this time around, figure 7 years from now will be close to optimal.

#60 macroman on 11.22.16 at 8:24 pm

Garth, just renovate your beard more into a Goatee…

You shouldn’t worry too much unless all the other attendees are wearing gumboots.

#61 LG on 11.22.16 at 8:35 pm

#9 Toronto Market Has Started To Crash

Would have to agree with you. I lived in the city up until 2 mos ago. For Sale signs up much longer than before. Took GT’s advice, downsized & moved 5 min out of the city. So much less traffic than TO.

#62 Confucius on 11.22.16 at 8:36 pm

To #11&17 RentYVR
Are you willing to wager on that? I’ll put forward a $100 to a charity of your choice if the next directional move by the BoC is up and not down. Willing to do the same?
#####################################
CONFUCIUS SAY, MAN WITH BIG MOUTH BEWARE OF FOOT.

#63 Calgary Guy on 11.22.16 at 8:43 pm

The editor for the Western Investor magazine seems to think Canadian Lending rates will DROP as a result of Trump. I think he is 100% wrong.

http://www.westerninvestor.com/news/opinion/trump-victory-will-impact-canadian-real-estate-1.2582362

#64 Conspiratard on 11.22.16 at 8:48 pm

Tonight I say RIP to JFK.

What was Trump doing 53 years ago today? I have an idea…

Perhaps the same thing he was doing September 30, when the Rosetta spacecraft was deliberately slammed into a comet.

More on what was onboard that doomed mission later….including a message from Jack Ruby to Americans of 2017.

#65 hey SM on 11.22.16 at 8:49 pm

So Rosie O’Donnell spotted migrating to Canada after Donald Trump won.
Good grief.

http://toronto.craigslist.ca/tor/rnr/5874979205.html

#66 conan on 11.22.16 at 8:57 pm

Trump doing some moves today.

Hillary will not be charged
Climate change is affected by man
Alt Right peeps strongly condemned

Looks like he lied big time in order to guarantee a Democrat gets into the office. How long before he starts firing the Nut-bars from his Cabinet?

Wow!

#67 Pete on 11.22.16 at 9:05 pm

NEVER AGAIN IN TORONTO

I know how you feel. The wife and I moved to the Kingston area when my aged parents decided to get a place on the lake near Picton. We wanted to be close by. After 4 years we moved back to Quebec. Just couldn’t take the mentality of that city anymore. When we first moved there I had people tell me that I would never be moving back to Quebec despite me telling them that we would after my parents had passed. My parents are still doing well and have moved back to be near to us now. We’ll never move to Ontario again.

#68 ALLAH on 11.22.16 at 9:18 pm

Ontario has little choice but to tax foreign home buyers, CIBC warns…..

http://globalnews.ca/news/2951272/ontario-has-little-choice-but-to-tax-foreign-home-buyers-cibc-warns/

#69 Wrk.dover on 11.22.16 at 9:19 pm

1. T.O.housing market is dumber than Gump. Can’t fix stupid
2. Paying debt doesn’t seem to be a concern to anyone any more except those with out debt.
3. Tax on over two million? If you roll in these numbers, it is on some one else being exploited, so no biggy.
4. Wait. Until you realise there is somewhere better to buy than in a megalopolis that has been going downward in quality of life since about 1967, when the Gardiner, Don Valley, Bloor subway, 401, 400, Terminal one were all brand new and enjoyed by a million people in the whole GTA!

#70 Entrepreneur on 11.22.16 at 9:26 pm

Wear black gloves, black means fearless, strong and a fighter, just don’t show the sweat, lol.

Some of the comments are funny, keep them coming.

I feel that our so-called free medical system as #49 GFD mentioned is controlled by the phymaceutcal companies. I have a-fib, irregular heart beat, and not one doctor here mentions about magnesium and other electrolytes. So let down.

I think with Trump in power Canada will correct and benefit but that is how it should be: for the people of that nation, all the people of that nation.

#71 garth fan on 11.22.16 at 9:27 pm

#36 NEVER going back to TORONTO on 11.22.16 at 7:11 pm
Not sure why would any one want to pay over a zillion dollars on a poorly constructed condo in a city where the dating scene and job market sucks!
**
Thank God that a company in Silicon Valley decided to renew my contract for the new year. The starting salary this year, is only US$85,000 per year, but I get a housing allowance and a dental plan. I also get paid 1.5 times for a 3-week vacation, which I am currently enjoying while sheeple in Toronto are in a rat race chasing dead-end jobs like a donkey on a stick.
*******************

I know plenty of people (predominantly women) with policy degrees or law degrees who land “policy advisor”, senior advisor (etc etc etc) jobs at 26-29 years of age…with starting salaries of $75K…to a cap of about $103K…

But with these jobs, they can get “manager” and “senior manager” jobs and make $105-$120K.

I can see how there’s a girl’s club in govt. At some point, sucking off the public teat will collapse.

#72 D on 11.22.16 at 9:39 pm

#9 Toronto Market Has Started To Crash on 11.22.16 at 5:56 pm
—•—•—•—•—•—•—•
On the contrary, I am seeing lots of action in my Toronto neighbourhood…bidding wars, houses selling within hours or days and lots of major renos, new pools, owners being approached to sell etc

#73 InvestorsFriend on 11.22.16 at 9:43 pm

In Investing ONLY the (long-term) Results Matter

One of the things I really like about investing and about making specific calls on the market or individual stocks is that it is only the market that eventually proves one right or wrong.

If you make specific calls publicly then your results can be verified after sufficient time has past.

Unlike in school or at work, there is no teacher or professor or boss to judge your results (often) subjectively.

And unlike in much of life you don’t need to worry that someone who is louder or more pushy or more charismatic or better looking will beat you out or hold you back.

The ONLY thing that matters after a long period of time is whether your stated predictions and investments were borne out by the market or the particular investment moving sufficiently in the predicted direction.

It does not matter if your approach made any sense to others. If you have enough predictions on the record, then after enough years, luck can probably be ruled out as much of a factor.

Investment predictions are absolutely NOT a popularity contest. In fact, you cannot beat the market by doing what is most popular.

Yes, making investment predictions is a wonderful thing when the market proves you right.

And when you are wrong, you can at first claim you were just early. But eventually there are simply no excuses.

Making documented investment predictions is a brutal but eminently fair game. Gotta love it.

#74 Smoking Man on 11.22.16 at 9:45 pm

American voters saved the world. Thank you America.

Agenda 21 is now toast. Set back 50 years for sure after Trump drains the swamp. And good riddance.

When you look around and see the loony left and don’t understand why they behave the way they do.

This article will shead some light on the mind twisted.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-13/what-exactly-agenda-21

#75 RIL on 11.22.16 at 9:56 pm

A chirp from the cheap seats and off topic the to boot. Garth has been tolerant on my comments, but that can end.

Unless the PeeCees and the Wildrosers (aka HLFP*) in Alberta get with the program, and Jason Kenney may lack the aptitude, Premier Notley will gain a second term.

Her gov’t is going to cap electricity rates.

* Hillbilly Lunatic Fringe Party

#76 Santa on 11.22.16 at 9:59 pm

“Finally, tell kids to buy or wait? This depends on whether or not you like your children.”

This is why I come here every night before sneaking into the sheets. Good, unadulterated chuckle.

God bless you, Garth.

#77 Al Lah on 11.22.16 at 10:07 pm

I am from Dearborn Michigan, work for Ford (not the dead one) and I voted Trump.

You wanna buy a F350 climate change special with truck nuts, I get to build it.

#78 That Guy on 11.22.16 at 10:18 pm

first of all, #7 , I thought I was That Guy…

secondly, #36 NEVER Toronto , I think the issue is you, and with women in general… you need to look into the mirror. The one common thing in your interviews was YOU, not the interviewer.

#79 Self Directed on 11.22.16 at 10:18 pm

#24 Oakville has lost its shine! on 11.22.16 at 6:51 pm
————————–
If this is true, the Zolo data has yet to tell the same story. Might take 3-6 consecutive months before you will see prices come down. Inventory levels are not great. (sellers market) Your Sales to List Price ratio is 102% (apparently homes selling over asking). I think you’ve got sticky sellers willing to wait until January 2017.

https://www.zolo.ca/oakville-real-estate/trends

I’m out in Coquitlam, a suburb 45 minutes outside Vancouver… sales have been down for months, but prices are only down a little bit in the higher end homes. Because of this slow decrease, the Lower end product has not decreased much at all.

https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/trends

I suspect Spring 2017, more idiot parents will supply their unfledged adult millennial’s with the cash they need to finally leave the basement. Once again, stoking the fire we all thought (and hoped) was dying.

I hoping for a different outcome… maybe it is different this time.

#80 Rexx Rock on 11.22.16 at 10:19 pm

Come live in beautiful Puerto Vallarta for the winter.Moving day next week,3500 pesos for a studio includes utilities or 245 cad.The only drawback its a 15 minute walk to the beach.You just got to walk the different neighbourhoods and look for se renta.Mexico rocks!!!

#81 common sense on 11.22.16 at 10:35 pm

Glad you were the voice of reason at these events in the past Mr. T.

#82 meslippery on 11.22.16 at 10:40 pm

(The wife and I moved to the Kingston) #67 So what happened ?? Whats so bad about Kingston
I live in York Region.

#83 Over rated on 11.22.16 at 10:52 pm

#2 Gators on 11.22.16 at 5:17 pm
whats up with ‘Drake’anyways? Most over rated Canadian performer in HISTORY!

Sure… What’s your achievement?

#84 cramar on 11.22.16 at 11:03 pm

4. Would you advise your kids or others to buy now or wait? And how long should someone wait if that’s the case?

————————–

Wait obviously! No. . .forget it!

How long? Years!

#85 hope & ruin on 11.22.16 at 11:05 pm

You know you’re a journalist/politician/masochist when you agree to go to your own roast. And then go back the next year.

#86 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.22.16 at 11:09 pm

Open your eyes silly guy. Stagnating for years now, and now falling.

No evidence. Thanks for playing.

Lol

Protip. Ask him for evidence and he’ll stop posting/avoid the topic. Easy win.

#87 Ronaldo on 11.22.16 at 11:14 pm

#64 Conspiratard on 11.22.16 at 8:48 pm

Tonight I say RIP to JFK.

What was Trump doing 53 years ago today? I have an idea…
——————————————————————
He was in grade 12 just as I was and listening to the high school principal announcing over the PA that the president of the United States had been shot and he was likely in shock as were the rest of us.

#88 Jinx's Caution on 11.22.16 at 11:17 pm

Alright bears, the whole ‘the market is crashing’ in the GTA and Vancouver is so 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015. Every year a seasonal slow down is construed as a crash.

While never (ever) one to defend realtor logic, the reality is we are in late fall and the winter season when sales do actually slow down and prices do dip (even Garth posted years ago that it was a good time in Dec as prices are 5-10% cheaper than the spring).

As much as I would like to see a full fledged melt down of the market, you are going to have to give it until early Spring I think to see an actual trend. By then the new fed mortgage rules will have kicked in, the impact of Trump will be a little more known, and we will be able to see if the feds have the gumption to increase down payment rules.

Until then, I would stick with noting this as a seasonal slow down officially while quietly cheering the potential trend of an actual coming collapse.

This blog is like a big jinx over the years- whenever it looks like some measure is going to prick the market or a definitive statement is made like rates are definitely going up, the opposite happens. So lets show some quiet restraint and pray for the collapse privately.

#89 RIL on 11.22.16 at 11:43 pm

GT:

I hope this text reaches your rotary landline and the comments. Ur blog is LIT AF!!

#90 CONFUCIUS SAY on 11.22.16 at 11:53 pm

DELETED

#91 SI2K on 11.22.16 at 11:55 pm

A huge number of Ontario Gen Xers are in Silicon Valley, etc., on TN visas and have been for a decade or more. The great homecoming will probably cause an RE bump, whether in retirement or in case of a NAFTA-related Trump-tirement. Watch Waterloo for this influx. Just a hunch.

#92 Pete on 11.22.16 at 11:58 pm

SMOKING MAN – Here is a good article:
http://www.naturalnews.com/055980_precious_snowflakes_universities_natural_selection.html

#82 meslippery – The problem with Kingston is it has so many prisons that the people there all seem to suffer from either a prisoner or prison guard mentality. It is, however, refreshingly low on the feminism totem pole for being in Ontario (outside of the university setting of course).

#93 Tony on 11.23.16 at 12:22 am

#25

Yes nothing is selling in the GTA. For sale signs everywhere and only the sold signs from 2 months ago remain. You know the market has stalled when for sale signs stay up for over 2-3 weeks. There is a panic within the industry.

#94 Tony on 11.23.16 at 12:25 am

Let’s see if a few houses go up in smoke this winter. Another indicator of a falling market.

#95 RIL on 11.23.16 at 12:56 am

Re: Trump and Keystone XL Pipeline

Patience people. The future of this endeavour of TCPL hinges on the various factions within Big Oil, the refiners, the Saudis and, amongst others, the Kochs and the Pentagon.

My bet? Alberta has issues. No time soon will we be laying pipe.

#96 Mark on 11.23.16 at 3:57 am

“A huge number of Ontario Gen Xers are in Silicon Valley, etc., on TN visas and have been for a decade or more. The great homecoming will probably cause an RE bump”

Great homecoming? Why? Trump’s “immigration reform” is most likely to send the H-1B visa holders (primarily Indian nationals) packing, not Canadians. If anything, the draw of the TN-1 may very well rise as the Indians are sent home and Canadians are recruited in their place — the TN-1 being available immediately, in unlimited numbers, and not the subject of any negative rhetoric from the anti-immigration community whatsoever. As it stands, TN-1 issuance is down dramatically (even more than just the extension of the visa to 3 years from the former 1 year implies) because the tech sector largely stopped recruiting Canadians, and mostly recruited Indians in their place as a lower-cost source of labour in the 2000s.

No evidence. Thanks for playing.

Get help. You’d have to almost be blind (or incredibly naïve and gullible) not to see the falling prices across Canada in RE. Interested in a bridge to nowhere, or some swampland by any chance?

#97 Patience on 11.23.16 at 4:59 am

Why has the CPD gone down hard from $13.06 to $12.50 in the space of a week while others like ZWU is still rising . ZWU pays 3 % more the CPD. Is the rout in can preferreds not over yet?

I wanted to put a few bucks more into equities but have decided not to chase, remembering that pigs get slaughtered, and patience is a virtue. As it is , yipppeeee, profits are great, but why get greedy? I think keeping some powder dry in this rocketing market might be prudent. Institutions will want to distribute at some point, and it will be ugly when they do. Next May might be the real thing.

#98 NoName on 11.23.16 at 6:22 am

#1 For those about to flop… on 11.22.16 at 5:11 pm

If you ever find your self in a center of Canadian emancipation and affluence, what would be Oakville, where okvillmorons live, there is a Ranee’s Roti on kerr street, best goat roti you’ll ever eat!

lets reflect on oakville gas plan fiasco for a brief moment.


Oakville cancellation[edit]
On October 9, 2009 the OPA and TCE signed a contract for the Oakville plant. Amid local protest and opposition from the Town of Oakville, in June 2010 TCE missed the milestone date under the contract for obtaining all pre-construction approvals and permits for the Oakville plant from the Town of Oakville.

On October 7, 2010 the Government announced the cancellation of the Oakville plant. The Ministry communique stated that TCE was entitled to reasonable damages and the anticipated financial value of the original contract. On the same day the Minister sent a letter to the OPA advising them of his directive. [2] This commitment to make TCE “whole” became central to the massive cost escalation of the project. Minister Kathleen Wynne, later Premier, signed the Cabinet directive. [10]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_power_plant_scandal#Oakville_cancellation

#99 Smoking Man on 11.23.16 at 6:58 am

#92 Pete on 11.22.16 at 11:58 pm
SMOKING MAN – Here is a good article:
http://www.naturalnews.com/055980_precious_snowflakes_universities_natural_selection.html

#82 meslippery – The problem with Kingston is it has so many prisons that the people there all seem to suffer from either a prisoner or prison guard mentality. It is, however, refreshingly low on the feminism totem pole for being in Ontario (outside of the university setting of course).
…..

Great link. Just about sums it up. I’m sharing it on twitter. The reason they are like that was not covered. This is what needs investigation. I think I know why. It’s in the book.

#100 pBrasseur on 11.23.16 at 7:07 am

1. How will Trump victory impact Toronto housing market?
Better growth, more investments and less risk aversion will create more inflation and interest rates will begin to rise. Would have happened anyway but more so under Trump. Toronto housing market cannot sustain higher rates.
2. Interest rates now rising on mortgages – is this a blip or cause for genuine concern?
Yes, could be a blip, short term is unpredictable. But long term is up.
3. New land transfer tax on properties over 2 mil, coupled with recent changes; will it impact foreign buyers in Toronto?
Who cares?
4. Would you advise your kids or others to buy now or wait? And how long should someone wait if that’s the case?
Wait.
Anyways this country is screwed for a long while unless strong remedy is administered, not in the cards with socialists T2, Wynne, Notley and the likes.

#101 Zen Headspace on 11.23.16 at 7:11 am

Stupid is as stupid does.

The Toronto market will continue to thrive, notwithstanding any economic fundamentals or lack thereof. Or Trump.

The main issue for Canadians who either remain in Canada of their own volition, or like most, stay simply because they have no other options, is that Toronto is the overwhelming leader in terms of locations to settle in.

It is simply, the best of the worst. Make a list of pros and cons of all the possible places one can live in Canada, and Toronto wins out. Mostly due to reasons of practicality and economic survival. (The proof is in the population and its continuing exponential growth.)

Additionally, the herd mentality has unstopable momentum, thereby ensuring the relative stability and bouyancy (key word: “relative’) of the Toronto real estate market for decades to come.

“Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.”
― George Carlin

#102 Trumpocalypse2016 on 11.23.16 at 7:36 am

CLINTON BEING URGED TO SEEK OVERTHROW OF ELECTION RESULTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/11/activists-urge-hillary-clinton-to-challenge-election-results.html

This is NOT a hoax! Some of the world’s best computer experts say the election was hacked by Russia.

The election was RIGGED!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/wisconsin-michigan-pennsylvania-election-hillary-clinton-hacked-manipulated-donald-trump-swing-a7433091.html

Meanwhile, Trump turns his back on his supporters, and now accepts climate change is real and man-made!

TOTAL CHAOS ONLY HOURS AWAY!!!!!!!!!

#103 cto on 11.23.16 at 7:54 am

#101 Zen Headspace

“like most, stay simply because they have no other options, is that Toronto is the overwhelming leader in terms of locations to settle in.”

Are you fricking kidding me!??? Toronto?,… fact is you poor little city slickers don’t know any better. poor fools! you stay there because of your ignorance about the rest of Canada!

You know,…there is a better life beyond the insanity of T.O. with jobs, social life, and food, and government services, etc.
It really does exist out there beyond the confines of the big stink!
And if you want to sink yourself, committing to a million $ mortgage because,…its what the cool kids do, please, please, do not complain and whine when the SHTF crying “I need help, it’s not fair”. Sit in the shithole you made and pout too yourself.

#104 cto on 11.23.16 at 7:56 am

#101 Zen Headspace

Additionally, the herd mentality has unstopable momentum, thereby ensuring the relative stability and bouyancy (key word: “relative’) of the Toronto real estate market for decades to come.

“Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.”

I certainly agree with you there my friend!

#105 GFD on 11.23.16 at 8:10 am

In a society that teaches youth “everyone’s a winner,” no one learns how to lose. From this, we get a pampered, protected, hyper-triggered population of young, homogenized losers who all mistakenly think they are forever on the winning side of history. So when the power of the American Republic turns against their delusional fantasies and shatters their false beliefs by electing Donald Trump as President, they completely freak out, practically wetting themselves with horror as they desperately seek hugs, emotional trauma counseling, “primal scream” sessions or other expressions of lunacy that most U.S. adults outgrew before the age of ten.

#106 maxx on 11.23.16 at 8:21 am

#21 Toronto Best City in the World on 11.22.16 at 6:38 pm

Everything’s relative. Lived in TO for 5 months in a downtown luxury condo, high up and fronting on the lake- exquisite view. Even with all expenses paid, I despised the atmosphere of the place. Downtown TO felt somewhat like NYC, but completely devoid of heart. Desolate. The worst of all possible worlds, big, busy and mostly ugly, with the coldest of people. I consider myself very lucky that I don’t have to live there to work. TO is good for a weekend visit. By train, as the drive out is literally hell on wheels.

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.23.16 at 8:25 am

@#71 Garth Fan
“At some point, sucking off the public teat will collapse….”
********************************************

My own personal experience over the last 5 years as well as other people I’ve talked to that most HR staff seem to have learned how to play the “stress leave” game. Especially govt HR staff.
They seem to hit the 1.5 year point in their incrdibally “valuable” career and “Poof” gone.
Cant handle the real world of staring staff in the face when they’re laid off or fired.
Apparently people’s emotional distress ( sadness, anger, desperation) were’nt covered in the HR course in University.
But that not a surprise since most professors probably havent actually practiced what they preach in the real world either.
I particularly like job applications where they ask,
” Have you ever been on stress leave”?
Like any job applicant is going to answer “yes” …
Yeesh

Human Resources.
The new bullies and bosses in major corporations.
Oh the irony

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.23.16 at 8:29 am

@#102 New Name2016

Yo!
Apocalypse. Trumpoid. Whatever.
2017 is fast approaching and I patented Apocalypse2017 and all its other variations.
If you use my patented names you will have to pay me royalties.
$10 a pop.
Now THATS a disaster.
Happy New Year.

#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.23.16 at 8:38 am

@#106 maxx
“the drive out is literally hell on wheels.”
********************************************
I agree with everything you said about TO with the exception of the commute.

Apparently you havent had the joy of Vancouvers gridlock, accidents, nonstop traffic jams that get worse when it rains………..
All while our mayors build more bicycle lanes, protest pipelines and tax vacant houses.
And every 10 years or so they build another multi billion dollar leg of our “rapid transit” system that subsidizes each passenger to the tune of $15 per person PER RIDE…. all paid for with a gasoline tax.

They want us sitting in traffic burning gas.

#110 traderJim on 11.23.16 at 9:24 am

#39 conan

I like the troll that pretends to be a woman better, you need to step up your game

#111 jess on 11.23.16 at 9:25 am

Trump supporters

richard spencer lecture using the word ” WE” an inclusive pronoun exclusively
o my gee wizards ….the most stupid are the believers who think they are the least stupid
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Racjkzg19dI

#112 Londoner on 11.23.16 at 9:28 am

“2. Interest rates now rising on mortgages – is this a blip or cause for genuine concern?”

It’s a blip. Interest rates will come down again but mortgage rates will probably drop more slowly or the banks won’t pass along the full drop back to retail clients. This is because of the added risk they are now expected to shoulder for residential mortgages. Nonetheless, this is not the end of low rates.

UK Autumn statement is out and more gov’t borrowing is on the cards (just like in Canada and the US). Guess what that means for interest rates.

#113 Penny Henny on 11.23.16 at 9:29 am

#105 Ace Goodheart on 11.22.16 at 3:41 pm
RE: #10 Market is Changing in Toronto:

“I live on a pedestrian friendly street in Toronto, I take the dog out for a walk daily. I have been noticing that houses that are listed are NOT moving. Hardly anyone at the open houses either.”

What are the prices? Where I live a house sells in about 5 days, usually after the open house, which is always held on a weekend. We know when the sold sign will pop up as it is after the open house, so usually Monday or Tuesday depending on how fast they can get it up there.

………………………………

Hello Ace. The person you were responding to posts here everyday under a different name, sometimes two or three times a day but always with a different name.
Each time it is an anecdotal story about how things are getting so slow in Toronto real estate.
I ask myself why would someone go through that trouble and all I can say Lord only knows.

#114 adiosbc on 11.23.16 at 9:44 am

Garth and bloggers,

Lots of Nova Scotia talk lately. Where is a good value location on South Shore to find ocean-front acreage?

#115 Penny Henny on 11.23.16 at 9:49 am

#9 Toronto Market Has Started To Crash on 11.22.16 at 5:56 pm
#24 Oakville has lost its shine! on 11.22.16 at 6:51 pm
#25 the decline in the GTA has begun on 11.22.16 at 6:54 pm
????????????????????????????????????????????

Why do you post multiple times a day under different names?

#116 David on 11.23.16 at 10:00 am

Does anyone have a source for what Garth said:

“over 50% of all GTA condos go to flippers and amateur landlords”

Urbanation. — Garth

Thanks

#117 Deano on 11.23.16 at 10:06 am

#106 maxx on 11.23.16 at 8:21 am
I agree on the insanity of TO. Last week I flew into TO in order to transfer planes to my final destination. We took off around 5pm and headed eastward above the 401 towards the Don Valley parkway. Unbelievable congestion on those roads, what a horrible way to finish a workday. I feel sorry for the residents of our country’s largest city.

#118 mrlooniebill on 11.23.16 at 10:07 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/uh-o-canada-loonie-seen-sinking-as-low-as-70/article33002370/?reqid=daa0e05d-710b-4ddf-ad19-0d3a5ee5f8cd

Mark….what’s happening ohnoooooooooooooooo

#119 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.23.16 at 10:15 am

Every piece of real estate I ever owned is now worth multiples of not just what I paid for it but that which I sold it for. One of the lessons I have learned by my own experience and that of the wealthy is… buy and keep real estate. I don’t regret any of the land I have bought but do regret that which i sold.

Land… they’re not making any more of it… but they are adding more and more bodies to the planet – all of which need a place to live. In 1960 the world population was 3 Billion. Now the world population is over 7 billion. 100 years ago world population was just over 1 billion. You do the math…

And don’t give me that #### about there being lots of land… how’s that working out so far? Location, location, location.

#120 Tony on 11.23.16 at 10:35 am

Re: The other Tony

We all know the fires in Fort McMurray were not just a coincidence. I remember all the arsons in Woodbridge back in 1989.

#121 maxx on 11.23.16 at 10:43 am

#29 Victor V on 11.22.16 at 7:01 pm

“FINTRAC sounds alarm on ‘deficiencies’ at over 100 B.C. real-estate companies

http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/fintrac-sounds-alarm-on-deficiencies-at-over-100-b-c–realestate-companies-217450.aspx

The scope ought to be widened to include the entire country as well as taking into account transaction irregularities/deficiencies- twice now agents have showed us offers coming in (real time, off of the copier and laptop from other agents) prior to sale and also an expired offer in attempts to accelerate the sale and/or instill a “guide price” (LOL) on the property.

It’s common knowledge that these are major transgressions, but it does happen and my guess is regularly.

The whole notion of “the protection of the public” in the realtard world is a complete, foaming at the mouth farce.

We completely lost trust and walked. Fast. As it happens, we’re ecstatic that we did.

Those buying now will rue the day they got snookered. Buyers are constantly being played, big time. Most buyers are not in full possession of their marbles anyway. Just a lot of bonkers.

Canada is not immune to the effects of global politics and finance. It will end up taking its seat at the folding kiddie table in the grand dining hall if it doesn’t smarten up.

Fast.

FINTRAC has zero to do with the perceived issues you referenced. The ‘deficiencies’ it is concerned with amount almost always to a lag in filing, or lack of, client documentation and reporting forms which are onerous, costly and largely ineffectual. — Garth

#122 Smoking Man on 11.23.16 at 11:01 am

#105 GFD on 11.23.16 at 8:10 am
In a society that teaches youth “everyone’s a winner,” no one learns how to lose. From this, we get a pampered, protected, hyper-triggered population of young, homogenized losers who all mistakenly think they are forever on the winning side of history. So when the power of the American Republic turns against their delusional fantasies and shatters their false beliefs by electing Donald Trump as President, they completely freak out, practically wetting themselves with horror as they desperately seek hugs, emotional trauma counseling, “primal scream” sessions or other expressions of lunacy that most U.S. adults outgrew before the age of ten.
…..

Great post

#123 Self Directed on 11.23.16 at 11:08 am

#91 SI2K on 11.22.16 at 11:55 pm

A huge number of Ontario Gen Xers are in Silicon Valley, etc., on TN visas and have been for a decade or more. The great homecoming will probably cause an RE bump, whether in retirement or in case of a NAFTA-related Trump-tirement. Watch Waterloo for this influx. Just a hunch.
————————————-
Huge numbers? All returning at once to save Ontario RE? And they want to come back to shovel snow? You’re Hillaryous!

#124 Ace Goodheart on 11.23.16 at 11:19 am

RE: #109 crowdedelevatorfartz:

“They want us sitting in traffic burning gas.”

I still don’t know why people don’t just try getting out of their cars.

The air is not poisonous (yet).

Nothing will bite you (most of the time).

It is possible for most people to walk (I know some of us are disabled and cannot – but every day I see people who are perfectly capable of walking a few miles, jump in a large SUV, occupied by only themselves, and add to the traffic chaos – sitting often directly behind a bus going to the same location that they are – and complaining that the bus is taking up space).

It is possible to ride a bike.

Why do you all keep driving? You are not getting anywhere anyway. I walk past hordes of you every day, sitting in your cars. I go faster than you do (and I am not a fast walker). It takes me about 20 minutes to walk a mile. It takes you over an hour to drive the same distance. Why do you bother?

Why do you drive, when a perfectly good mass transit vehicle, costing less to ride than the gas you will burn sitting in traffic, is going to the exact same location that you are?

I just don’t understand people. Get out of your cars. It is fine. Everyone does it. You will be OK. Just try it, you’ll love it.

#125 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.23.16 at 11:38 am

“All while our mayors build more bicycle lanes, protest pipelines and tax vacant houses.
And every 10 years or so they build another multi billion dollar leg of our “rapid transit” system that subsidizes each passenger to the tune of $15 per person PER RIDE…. all paid for with a gasoline tax.

They want us sitting in traffic burning gas.” – C.E.F.

If that is in fact true, which I am sure it is to one degree or another, I have NO PROBLEM WHAT-SO-EVER subsidizing public transit through gasoline taxes. Higher gas cost = disincentive to drive, subsidized public transit = more incentive to use it. Eventually we’ll get it.

#126 InvestorsFriend on 11.23.16 at 11:46 am

Stupid Investor Tricks

A TD Bank “financial adviser” told me that people are coming in and opening TD Direct (TD Waterhouse) accounts just so that they can invest in marijuana stocks.

No doubt the same people who buy lottery tickets.

If this is the competition it is a wonder how any intelligent investor fails to beat the average.

Think about the investment knowledge level of the average person. Then consider that half are lower than that. They best seek professional help with their investments.

#127 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.23.16 at 11:48 am

#121 maxx on 11.23.16 at 10:43 am

The whole FINTRAC B.S. is just that… B.S.

Tell me how possibly someone is going to launder money through a real estate transaction. In the thousands of deals I have seen none had opportunity to launder money. Buy and turn a house into a grow op? Sure! But launder money?

On top of that we (REALTORS®) are required to fill out a four page report on every party to a transaction the last three of which full pages require nothing more than a check mark. AND THEN our brokerages are required to keep those documents on file for years and if we don’t comply with the letter of the law HUGE penalties can be levied.

One FINTRAC employee went so far, when confronted with the enormity of the task in our own brokerage, as to suggest “maybe we (you) should consider hiring a full time employee to manage it”. Dipshit bureaucrat.

#128 crossbordershopper on 11.23.16 at 11:52 am

I walk to work every day, 5 minute walk there, my wife comes over for lunch, and i leave at five, for the 5 minute walk, sure small town saskatchewan has its drawbacks, but no rush hour, no commute, no stress, no mortgage and i have all the services and stores, except a few specialists you have to go for a drive, but thats rare. otherwise, very boring, so you travel south when the winter hits. southern ontario has become very strained, people, costs, commute, etc.

#129 Zen Headspace on 11.23.16 at 11:52 am

#103 CTO

“Are you fricking kidding me!??? Toronto?,… fact is you poor little city slickers don’t know any better. poor fools! you stay there because of your ignorance about the rest of Canada!”
——————————————————————–
Nevertheless, the ignorant poor city slickers stay there and more and more continue to pour in. Whether or not they “don’t know any better” is irrelevant to my point, that being that they are part of the herd which drives the popularity of the location in the first place.

I am not disputing the fact that there are myriad reasons for residing in Canadian locations other than Toronto.

I am simply pointing out that, despite all of the “positives” that can be found in numerous other locations in Canada, whether they be urban, rural, or a mix thereof, MOST people (that is to say, those who grew up in other parts of Canada, those who were born and raised in Toronto, and those who have and continue to immigrate to Canada from other countries) overwhelmingly end up in the megametropolis of the GTA, because that’s where they ultimately think and believe is where they stand the best chance of economic survival (i.e., employment), access to entertainment, proximity to their cultural/ethnic/religious affiliates, access to facilities/services/amenities/transit, etc.

As I indicated, the proof of this is in the sheer numbers that continue flock to this urban phenomenon.

Our brains are wired for herding. Sadly, his herd behavior is the norm not only for sheep, but for humans. We evolved in social groups, and as a result, our brains are hardwired to place great importance on what other people think. When we see a group of people doing something, our brains are wired to disregard our own perceptions and accept, lock-stock-and-barrel, what everyone else is doing. While we have a reasonably active prefrontal cortex that can override this, I see little evidence of prefrontal activity in those that migrate to and remain in the GTA to offset this phenomenon.

Regardless of the superiority of many other places in Canada over Toronto, for whatever reasons that can be proclaimed, Toronto’s population and demand for its real estate will continue to grow far beyond that of any other place in the country, like it or not.

Dogs like to defecate where there is already a big pile of feces. Whadda ya know? Dogs ARE just like people.

#130 45north on 11.23.16 at 12:26 pm

F35: Canada’s interests have been supplanted by the Liberal Party

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-liberals-jet-purchase-a-political-solution-to-political-problem

Ivison makes a couple of good points:
the Liberals are afraid of an open competition
the 18 new Super Hornets won’t be free
Lt. Gen Mike Hood, commander of the air force was not present at the press conference

in stark contrast Australia doesn’t let politics get in the way of national defence:

Matthew Fisher: What has evolved Down Under is an all-party consensus that robustly defending Australia is a top-level national interest. Decisions on strategic policy, defence budgets and procurement policies reflect that. A common vision on security supercedes everything.

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/matthew-fisher-lessons-on-national-defence-from-down-under

#131 maxx on 11.23.16 at 12:31 pm

Judging by the comments coming out of Toronto the Ugly, it would appear that re panic is truly setting in.

#132 Wrk.dover on 11.23.16 at 12:38 pm

#114 adiosbc on 11.23.16 at 9:44 am
Garth and bloggers,

Lots of Nova Scotia talk lately. Where is a good value location on South Shore to find ocean-front acreage

——

Viewpoint.com

I don’t expect you’ll find what you think you want.
South Shore is the pricey spot, you are late looking, there aren’t any scalpers, but are many hoarders..

I value being on the main shore (paved) highway where the snow plow goes by seemingly every five minutes when necessary, and a shopping town of 1,000 is a quick drive away.

#133 SquareNinja on 11.23.16 at 12:41 pm

The real estate market has been hot in the Niagara Region this past summer and is still going hot… perhaps it’s the fact that Greater Toronto Area real estate is so expensive.

Moisters – who want to “own” a house no matter what – are willing to do the 2-hour one-way daily commute just to own a house. Houses in the Niagara Region are half of what they are in the GTA, after all. If you don’t qualify for what you want in the GTA, well, you probably qualify for it in the Niagara Region.

Apparently, those involved in the real estate market here do not see a slowdown for the time being…

#134 InvestorsFriend on 11.23.16 at 12:55 pm

Public Transit Subsidised by Gasoline Tax?

#125 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.23.16 at 11:38 am said:

I have NO PROBLEM WHAT-SO-EVER subsidizing public transit through gasoline taxes. Higher gas cost = disincentive to drive, subsidized public transit = more incentive to use it. Eventually we’ll get it

********************************************
I agree 100%. Transit gets cars off the road and leaves more room for those of us that choose to drive.

Gasoline taxes to pay for the (free to use) roads, to compensate for pollution / carbon emissions and to subsidise public transit are absolutely appropriate.

The U.S. is out of line by not imposing sufficient gasoline taxes.

#135 ROTFL on 11.23.16 at 12:57 pm

Repeat after me: You have no idea how a Trump administration is going to affect anything. You didn’t predict his election, you know that many of his promises are wildly impractical (and are already being scaled back or walked back since the election) and you know that he has to cooperate with a Republican congress, many of whom are supposedly against many of his ideas. All we can safely say is that he probably won’t raise taxes.

Americans often talk about moving to Canada, but they’re usually joking. The last time any of them did it in real numbers was to avoid the draft for the Vietnam War.

And if you think that any of them with the means to spend a million on a house can’t find a much better house on a much nicer piece of land in a low tax state with a nicer climate than Canada has on offer, think again.

#136 ShawnG in TO on 11.23.16 at 1:06 pm

> #115 Penny Henny on 11.23.16 at 9:49 am
> Why do you post multiple times a day under different names?

he’s either a bot, or got paid to do it.

this blog is influential. it’s making realturds more and more scared. they are trying to fight back. but we see right thru it.

#137 eddy on 11.23.16 at 1:07 pm

#115 Penny Henny on 11.23.16 at 9:49 am
#9 Toronto Market Has Started To Crash on 11.22.16 at 5:56 pm
#24 Oakville has lost its shine! on 11.22.16 at 6:51 pm
#25 the decline in the GTA has begun on 11.22.16 at 6:54 pm
????????????????????????????????????????????

Why do you post multiple times a day under different names?


‘realtors in a panic ‘ was his old name

someone please tell him the spring market starts in 7 weeks

@ deano, sympathy for 416? why? they can afford to leave

#138 Wiggle Room on 11.23.16 at 1:12 pm

Hey Garth,

What’s up with allowing these super sexist comments? I don’t really like reading crap from angry haters who refer to women as “feminazis.” Yes, I get that this is the Internet and comment sections draw out all the crazies, but if you’re deleting (I assume) racist comments then why leave up the sexist ones?

#139 Context on 11.23.16 at 1:43 pm

Shame on a REIT apartment building ownership in Toronto, Ontario as they are Breaking the Law. No Landlord can implement a no pet policy unless it is dangerous even if such is stated in the lease as its bogus.

#140 Ronaldo on 11.23.16 at 1:50 pm

#119 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.23.16 at 10:15 am

”Land… they’re not making any more of it… but they are adding more and more bodies to the planet – all of which need a place to live. In 1960 the world population was 3 Billion. Now the world population is over 7 billion. 100 years ago world population was just over 1 billion. You do the math…”
————————————————————-
From the Vancouver Sun:

”While density has its challenges in terms of congestion, parking and noise, it is worth noting that the region is a virtual nature preserve by international standards. As of 2011, Metro Vancouver’s population per square km is nearly 3,550 people, while the density in New Delhi is 11,300 people, and in Manila, 43000.
Nothing like comparative data to put our challenges into proper perspective.”

#141 Balmuto on 11.23.16 at 1:50 pm

1. How will Trump victory impact Toronto housing market?

Looks like Trump spending, protectionism and tax cuts mean reflation and the market thinks the Fed is serious about tightening so it all adds up to higher bond yields and therefore higher mortgage rates. Which is bad for housing but Toronto supply is very tight and the condo market is well supported by the rental market which is on fire. So I still see Toronto prices continuing to go higher in the near term.

2. Interest rates now rising on mortgages – is this a blip or cause for genuine concern?

It’s not a blip but it really depends on how sharp of an increase we see. I think the market could withstand a 1-2% increase without crashing but if we return to >5% mortgages the market will crash, no question.

3. New land transfer tax on properties over 2 mil, coupled with recent changes; will it impact foreign buyers in Toronto?

Judging by the Hong Kong experience, not that much.

4. Would you advise your kids or others to buy now or wait? And how long should someone wait if that’s the case?

In Toronto if the choice is between renting and owning a condo I recommend just buying the condo and locking in a fixed rate. The savings from monthly rent vs. the carrying costs of owning is pretty negligible right now. Rents are out of control.

#142 isuckless on 11.23.16 at 1:51 pm

Using a bike to commute to work!
You must be living in a country different from Canada (or peoples republic of BC).
6 months of snow, slush and cold. And windy too.
Yes, I will bike through all that to go to work (NOT).
Also, my work (currently) is 10 km away – takes 50 minutes to go there by public transport.
Of course I’ll use my car.
My wife works on the other side of the city, no way she will bike there. Parking is $200+ a month so she takes 2 buses to go to work. She wastes between 50 and 70 minutes each way.
Yay for public transport and bikes (NOT!)
And, BTW, bikers use roads that we (car owners paid for). Why no licensing fees for bikes if they go downtown?

Using my bike (yes I have that) abut 3 months a year.
If I live in Australia then I would probably use it most of the year.

#143 Ronaldo on 11.23.16 at 1:58 pm

#127 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.23.16 at 11:48 am

#121 maxx on 11.23.16 at 10:43 am

The whole FINTRAC B.S. is just that… B.S.

”Tell me how possibly someone is going to launder money through a real estate transaction. In the thousands of deals I have seen none had opportunity to launder money. Buy and turn a house into a grow op? Sure! But launder money?”
————————————————————
Maybe this will give you a clue.

http://corporatecomplianceinsights.com/money-laundering-schemes-in-real-estate/

#144 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.23.16 at 2:00 pm

@#124 Ace Goodheart
“It is possible to ride a bike.

Why do you all keep driving? You are not getting anywhere anyway. I walk past hordes of you every day, sitting in your cars. I go faster than you do (and I am not a fast walker). It takes me about 20 minutes to walk a mile. It takes you over an hour to drive the same distance. Why do you bother? ”
*******************************************

Please spare me the self righteous BS.

For over 20 years I worked in downtown Vancouver and lived in the Burbs ( 9 miles each way).
Rode my bicycle almost everyday BEFORE Mayor Moonbean OR bike lanes were even invented.
No problems. Enjoyed every minute of my commute.
Then I changed jobs.
Now I am required to drive all over the lower Brainland almost on a daily basis. Usually carrying materials or hurrying to appointments that a “Skytrain” or bus would be impossible to use due to their poorly designed routes or nonexistant service.
( even the Head of Skytrain drives to work).
Not to mention the prohibitively expensive (even with the $15 per ride gas tax subsidy) “transit fees” for Zone 1,2 or 3 transit pass card ( A “new” passcard system that was originally budgeted at 6 million and eventually rang the bell at 240 million, 3 years overdue)
Unfortunately, Its just as cheap to drive and park a car.

So there we have it.
Transit is expensive, inconvienient and poorly designed . But it makes the politicians look like they are doing something for the environment when they spend billions burning cash on a mega project with juicy financial connections to their main campaign contributors( insert SNC Lavalin , Gwyn Morgan, BC Liberal Party and Skytrain HERE).
No.
The environment means nothing to these craven opportunists.
Its all about optics and re election campaigns.
You can be certain that our Premier Photo Op(Christy Clark) will be front and center Dec 2nd at the latest,( 2 years overdue) multi billion dollar Skytrain branch line grand opening ribbon cutting ceremony.
Patting herself on the back ,once again, with taxpayers dollars.

Disgusting doesn’t even begin to describe it.

#145 Context on 11.23.16 at 2:18 pm

#127 Devil’s Advocate:- The laundering of money in Toronto through a real estate transaction in Toronto is nothing new. This has been taking place for decades between buyers and sellers. I will not expose how this is done because don’t want to give anyone ideas, but it was not common knowledge.

#146 Calgary Rip Off on 11.23.16 at 2:19 pm

1)Trumps impact on Toronto? Too many variables to predict that outcome. And a prediction may correlate but not be caused by Trump. Irrelevant really.

4) Wait vs. buy: Again, need more variables. Which province, what age of buyer, income level, etc etc etc. If all the critical smaller variables equate with lesser risk and better outcomes with mortgage acquisition, then buy. Most of the time in Calgary since 2007 your advice for those in government positions, has been wrong, while those in oil based industries likely has been correct due to layoffs in “these trying economic times”.

It is truly amazing the amount of self entitled people that think their opinion about media courage, journalism believe it is their divine right to tell President Trump what they think as if they are victims as this man makes change happen. Fortunately with technology the game has changed and 95% of the not so smart humans are able to survive. 1000 years ago there would be less mercy.

Bottom line is that Trump has cajones. Deal with it.

#147 For those about to flop... on 11.23.16 at 2:34 pm

Some people have suggested that the slow down in Vancouver Real estate is just seasonal,but for the first time in a long time the price seems more negotiable.

Take my hood of Fraser for instance.

There are currently 58 properties for sale and 12 of them have had price reductions on current listings and a handful of other ones came back on with a new lower price like the one below that just got its second reduction of 100k.

Listings have swelled for this time of year but a lot of the detached listings simply waited to long.

Places that were getting snapped up in the first week for 1.6m are already struggling to get 1.2m

I expect a slower decline and a slight uptick with some fresh meat on the spring market.

One house a block away from where I live the developer got into a bidding war and paid 200k over ask and 400k over assessment for a knockdown bungalow,six months later it just sits there apparently not worthy of more investment at this stage.If the market is more robust than expected in the spring I would not be surprised to see it back on the market as is.

In all fairness places are still selling but they are on the market for longer and the prices are softer.

Sooner or later the buyers might even do something ridiculous and put some conditions in on the offer.

Who am I kidding…

M42BC

http://www.normflockhart.com/listings/details.aspx?l=229

#148 Alvina Knows on 11.23.16 at 2:37 pm

#118 mrlooniebill on 11.23.16 at 10:07 am

The dollar has had a hard time trying to pull off some mean reversion, as some have theorized or hoped.

A buy of the US dollar back in September 2009 was genius.

For those that thought that shorting the US$ when the C$ was $1.05 believing in their minds that it was going to $1.30 and more should stay away from currency trading.

#149 RentYVR on 11.23.16 at 2:51 pm

@#42 Rock Beats Paper

We’re talking about the bank benchmark rate. My point is that with almost no growth or inflation the rate is probably where it should be and there is no pressure at all to raise it. Plus, as I keep pointing out here, Canada’s rates a sky high compared to most of the rest of the developed world. Now, that doesn’t mean that us shmoes ain’t going to be charged higher rates for our borrowing. Of course we will as the banks tighten lending rules and become more risk adverse in general. But you’re dreaming if you think the core rate is going up meaningfully anytime soon.

#150 cramar on 11.23.16 at 2:54 pm

#87 Ronaldo on 11.22.16 at 11:14 pm
#64 Conspiratard on 11.22.16 at 8:48 pm

Tonight I say RIP to JFK.

What was Trump doing 53 years ago today? I have an idea…
——————————————————————
He was in grade 12 just as I was and listening to the high school principal announcing over the PA that the president of the United States had been shot and he was likely in shock as were the rest of us.

===================

Interesting that you never forget something like that. I was at a friend’s house after school (also grade 12) and heard the news over the radio in his kitchen, that Kennedy had been shot and taken to Parkland. Moments later it was announced that he was dead! The kitchen and the radio location was burned into my memory as a teenager. Weird how it works.

Is the truth re. JFK ever going to be officially acknowledged?

More complexity to the plot even 53 years later:
http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-91934130/

#151 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.23.16 at 3:10 pm

#102 Trumpocalypse2016 on 11.23.16 at 7:36 am

Best part of the article:
The group has already held a call with Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta and campaign general counsel Marc Elias to argue that while they have not found conclusive evidence of a hack…

Lol desperate Democrats always blame outward for their failings. Look in the mirror girls and boys! Haha

#152 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 11.23.16 at 3:13 pm

Ms Clinton said during the third presidential debate that Mr Trump’s refusal to definitely accept the election result if he lost was “horrifying”.

Shoe is on the other foot now eh?

How does it feel to not accept the election results Hillary? Horrifying?

ROFL

#153 Context on 11.23.16 at 3:33 pm

These so-called experts or any legal entity in Canada wouldn’t recognize a Real Estate fraud or even a woman screaming in a bedroom because they don’t know what to look for. The deals they should be looking at are homes listed for $700,000 that are being sold for $1,000,000. Put these deals on my desk with all the facts and in 10 minutes can do a forensic analysis for a modest fee to declare it one way or another from experience.

#154 Context on 11.23.16 at 4:11 pm

#150 cramar:- This story is bogus for two reasons as John was never the target. The cartel would have done away with him elsewhere if he was a bad boy and John was in on the plot as attended the meetings planning this assassination with others.

#155 oncebittwiceshy on 11.23.16 at 4:38 pm

So, well after the fact, research is now pointing to the fact that the subprime crisis in the U.S.A wasn’t a subprime crisis after all.

Apparently, the middle class started believing the hype on ever increasing prices and were just as responsible, if not more responsible than the low income/subprime debacle.

“in the run-up to the housing collapse, both credit and defaults expanded proportionally across borrowers of every income level and every credit rating.

And yet when the bottom fell out, the researchers found, there was a sharp increase in delinquencies for middle-class borrowers and borrowers with “prime”—or high—credit ratings.”

http://mitsloan.mit.edu/newsroom/articles/rethinking-how-the-housing-crisis-happened/

“Given that it’s such a systemic event across income groups and especially in the middle class, it points to the fact that households as well as banks really believed in this house price appreciation and thought that it was sustainable,” Schoar said in an interview. “And they acted on this feeling that they were richer because their home was worth more. Once the economy slows down, then it becomes tougher for people to pay their mortgages, but also they have less incentive to pay them if the house is underwater. It points to the fact that this was a house price bubble that you could say most people in the economy seem to have bought into.”

Oh well, as long as Canadians don’t share the same mindset, we should be fine.

#156 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.23.16 at 4:39 pm

@124 Ace Goodheart-

My hero!

#157 Sales have slowed in the GTA on 11.23.16 at 4:52 pm

Realtors here can spin all they want but a shift has happened and sales have stalled out with mnay sales falling through. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :)

#158 Sales have slowed in the GTA on 11.23.16 at 4:56 pm

SquareNinja on 11.23.16

Slow down has already happened in the GTA and Niagara is no different. Sorry. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#159 Keith in Calgary on 11.23.16 at 5:03 pm

aka Devil’s Advocate said…….

“Every piece of real estate I ever owned is now worth multiples of not just what I paid for it but that which I sold it for. One of the lessons I have learned by my own experience and that of the wealthy is… buy and keep real estate. ”

You forgot to finish the paragraph with……….”But only during a 50 year long economic expansion fuelled by the loosening of mortgage regulations and introduction of unsecured consumer credit and loose central bank monetary polciies on the part of central bankers”

LOL !!!

#160 owll on 11.23.16 at 5:42 pm

#142 isuckless on 11.23.16 at 1:51 pm
Using a bike to commute to work!
You must be living in a country different from Canada (or peoples republic of BC).
6 months of snow, slush and cold. And windy too.
Yes, I will bike through all that to go to work (NOT).
Also, my work (currently) is 10 km away – takes 50 minutes to go there by public transport.
Of course I’ll use my car.
…..
Yay for public transport and bikes (NOT!)
And, BTW, bikers use roads that we (car owners paid for). Why no licensing fees for bikes if they go downtown?
………………………………….
10k from work? you could ride there in 25 minutes. i did it in Yellowknife, all winter.

cars don’t pay for roads. property taxes do, and anyone who lives somewhere pays those.

#161 Where's The Money Guido? on 11.23.16 at 6:50 pm

Re: #150
Is the truth re. JFK ever going to be officially acknowledged?
My take is the Chicago mafia dispatched John as payback to Joseph Kennedy’s earlier pact with the mob to get the union vote for John for president thru the teamsters, run by Jimmy Hoffa.
The mob wanted Bobby Kennedy to quit investigating them while New York Attorney general, but were double-crossed when JFK won and he made Bobby US AG.
So they killed Joe’s kids about 5 years apart.

#162 maxx on 11.23.16 at 8:42 pm

“FINTRAC has zero to do with the perceived issues you referenced. The ‘deficiencies’ it is concerned with amount almost always to a lag in filing, or lack of, client documentation and reporting forms which are onerous, costly and largely ineffectual. — Garth”

Correct, which is why I said “widen the scope”…….

#127 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.23.16 at 11:48 am

Miss reading comprehension 101?

You have no idea what FINTRAC is, or was intended to accomplish. It’s not there to police agents or make up for your lack of real estate acumen. — Garth

#163 maxx on 11.23.16 at 9:06 pm

You have no idea what FINTRAC is, or was intended to accomplish. It’s not there to police agents or make up for your lack of real estate acumen. — Garth

What will police them? Yada yada at #127 seems to think that the system in place is more than adequate to police the industry.